15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Blue Jays/Yankees OVER 8

I've been pretty stubborn on these Blue Jays' OVERS because they have the best lineup in baseball.  They are up against one of the best lineups in baseball in the Yankees as well.  After both lineups were held in check in the first two games of this series, I expect them to break out tonight.

Jose Berrios was rocked for 4 earned runs in 1/3 of an inning in a 10-8 win over the Rangers in his first start this season.  Berrios is 2-2 with a 4.40 ERA and 1.402 WHIP in six career starts against the Yankees.  The OVER is 4-0 in Berrios' last four starts against New York.

Gerrit Cole allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings in his final start against the Blue Jays last season.  Cole allowed 3 earned runs in 4 innings in his first start this season, a 6-5 win over the Red Sox.  He and Berrios are getting too much respect from oddsmakers with this low 8-run total tonight.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Clippers/Timberwolves TNT No-Brainer on Minnesota -2.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are the No. 1 ranked team in offensive efficiency since January 1st.  They have been tough to tame when Russell, Towns and Edwards have been healthy.  In fact, they are fully healthy heading into the playoffs and will be a dangerous out for anyone.  This is a much deeper team than they get credit for.

The Clippers are getting a lot of respect after winning five straight games to close out the season.  But only one of those five opponents was actually trying to win the game, and that was the Pelicans.  Four of the wins came at home and the other was a road win over the Bucks' backups.  These five wins have given bettors false hope on this team.

Los Angeles is 1-11 ATS when revenging a loss as a home favorite this season.  The Clippers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  The Timberwolves are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a loss.  It's going to be a tremendous atmosphere at the Target Center in Minneapolis tonight as these fans have been yearning for a winner for years and they absolutely love this team, and for good reason.  Bet the Timberwolves Tuesday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -128

The Los Angeles Dodgers have several advantages in this game that should have them being bigger favorites over the Minnesota Twins.  They have the advantage on the mound, and they have the advantage of having yesterday off while the Twins will be playing for a 5th consecutive day.

Andrew Heaney has faced the Twins three times in his career, two of which came last season.  Heaney is 1-0 with a 2.95 ERA and 0.818 WHIP in those three career starts against them with his teams going 3-0 in those games.  The Dodgers are high enough on him to add them to their rotation, which says a lot about what they think of him.

Chris Archer has fallen off a cliff the last few seasons.  He went 3-9 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.412 WHIP in 23 starts with the Pirates in 2019 and has battled injury each of the last two seasons.  Archer has never beaten the Dodgers, going 0-3 with a 6.19 ERA and 1.563 WHIP in three career starts against them.  Roll with the Dodgers Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Blue Jays/Yankees OVER 9

Both the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees were held in check yesterday.  These two lineups are too good to be held down two days in a row, and these two starting pitchers are worse tonight in this matchup.

Yusei Kikuchi is 15-24 with a 4.97 ERA and 1.403 WHIP in three seasons in the big leagues.  He went 1-1 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.680 WHIP in three spring training starts.  Kikuchi is 1-2 with a 4.57 ERA and 1.523 WHIP in four career starts against the Yankees.  Nestor Cortes is 7-5 with a 4.66 ERA and 1.366 WHIP in four seasons in the big leagues.

The forecast looks good for an OVER at Yankee Stadium tonight with temps in the upper-60's and 7 MPH winds blowing out to right center.  The OVER is 5-0 in Blue Jays last five vs. a left-handed starter.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday. 

15* Cavaliers/Nets TNT ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland +9.5

The Brooklyn Nets cannot be trusted laying this big of a number at home.  They don't play defense, so asking them to win by 10-plus points to beat us is asking too much.  I'll gladly take the value with the Cleveland Cavaliers catching 9.5 points in this play-in game.

All four games between the Cavaliers and Nets this season went down to the wire and were decided by 11 points or fewer.  I expect more of the same here in their 5th meeting, and for the Cavaliers to shoot much better than the 29.6% (8-of-27) they shot from 3 in their final meeting of the regular season.

The Cavaliers are 26-10-2 ATS in their last 38 games following an ATS win.  The Nets are 6-26-1 ATS in their last 33 home games.  Brooklyn is a woeful 3-23 ATS in its last 26 games as a home favorite.  Take the Cavaliers Tuesday.

15* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Mariners/Twins OVER 9

Dylan Bundy is an absolute gas can.  He went 2-9 with a 6.06 ERA and 1.357 WHIP in 90 2/3 innings for the Angels last season.  I can't believe the Twins picked him up in the offseason.  He will get lit up tonight by this underrated Seattle lineup.

Chris Flexen is 17-17 with a 4.83 ERA and 1.494 WHIP in four years in the big leagues for the Mariners.  He will also get rocked by a potent Twins lineup that busted out for 10 runs and six homers yesterday.

The weather report is going to help us cash this OVER 9 ticket as well.  Temperatures will be in the upper-50's with 14 MPH winds blowing out to straightaway center.

The OVER is 13-3 in Flexen's 16 career starts as an underdog of +100 or higher.  The OVER is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Blue Jays/Yankees AL East No-Brainer on OVER 9

Arguably the two best lineups in all of baseball square off tonight when the Toronto Blue Jays visit the New York Yankees for Game 1 of this series.  Expect offensive fireworks in this one as it sails OVER this 9-run total.

The Blue Jays managed 20 runs and gave up 23 runs in their three games against the Rangers over the weekend.  They should get theirs against Jameson Taillon, who is 1-2 with a 5.21 ERA in four career starts against Toronto.

Alek Manoah had a promising rookie season last year for the Blue Jays but is clearly due for some regression.  Now that these teams have plenty of tape on him they should be able to get to him this season more often than they did last year.

The OVER is 14-4 in Taillon's last 18 night starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Brewers/Orioles OVER 9

Two gas cans square off today in what should be a slug fest in Baltimore.  Adrian Houser goes for the Brewers and Bruce Zimmerman goes for the Orioles.  Zimmerman is 4-5 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.472 WHIP in 71 1/3 innings in two seasons in the big leagues for the Orioles.

It will be 62 degrees in Baltimore this afternoon with 9 MPH winds blowing out to left-center to help aid us in cashing this OVER ticket.

Houser is a perfect 11-0 OVER when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last three seasons.  Houser is 9-0 OVER as a road favorite of -110 or higher over the last three years.  Baltimore is 16-4 OVER in its last 20 games after scoring three runs or less in three straight games.  Roll with the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Dallas Mavericks -9

The Dallas Mavericks are still playing for seeding.  They are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch in going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with three of the six wins coming against playoff teams.  The six wins have come by an average of 19 points per game.

Now they host a San Antonio Spurs team that has nothing to play for and is locked into the 10th seed in the West.  They will be traveling to face New Orleans in the play-in round on Wednesday.  They are more concerned with resting their players and getting them healthy rather than winning this game.  That's especially the case playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 94-100 home loss to the Warriors last night.

The Mavericks are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games overall.  Dallas is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 home games, including 5-0 ATS in its last five games as a home favorite.  Expect them to roll by double-digits tonight and cover this number.  Take the Mavericks Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -17

The Utah Jazz still have seeding at stake in the West.  Look for them to take out their frustration on the Portland Trail Blazers, who have been blown out on a regular basis and are openly tanking.  Their numbers down the stretch are mind-blowing.

The Blazers are 2-20 SU & 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  A whopping 10 of those losses have come by 30 points or more, and 14 of those losses by 17 points or more.  They lost to the Mavericks by 50 and the Pelicans by 33 in their last two games coming in.

One of those 30-plus point losses came a month ago to the Jazz as they lost 85-123 as 19.5-point road underdogs.  It should be more of the same in the rematch here a month later as nothing has change for the Blazers, and the Jazz still have something to play for.  Bet the Jazz Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Padres/Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5

Two of the worst lineups in the National League have definitely been on display in the first three games of this series between Arizona and San Diego.  They have combined for 6, 3 and 7 runs in the first three games.  And now the books have once again set the total too high at 9.5 runs today.

While Blake Snell was shaky at times last year, he wasn't shaky when facing the Diamondbacks.  Indeed, Snell is 3-0 with a 0.61 ERA and 0.741 WHIP in five career starts against Arizona, four of which came last season.  The UNDER went 4-0 in those four games with combined scores of 3, 5, 2, and 6 runs.

Caleb Smith has held his own against the Padres in going 2-2 with a 4.39 ERA in six career starts against them.  The UNDER is 3-1-1 in his last five starts against the Padres with combined scores of 7 runs or less in four of them.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NL West PLAY OF THE DAY on Dodgers/Rockies UNDER 11.5

The first two games of this series between the Rockies and Dodgers have gone well UNDER the total.  They combined for just 8 runs in Game 1 and 5 runs in Game 2 with identical 11.5-run totals.  This total has been set at 11.5 again, and there's reason to believe it should be set a lot lower.

Julio Urias is one of the best young starters in the game and coming off a great season.  He'll be up against a Rockies lineup that is as poor as it has been in a long time.  Antonio Senzatela held the Dodgers to 4 earned runs and 10 base runners in 13 innings in his final two starts against them last season.

But the main reason I'm on the UNDER is the weather report.  Temperatures will be in the low 50's with 22 MPH winds blowing in from left-center.  Those winds are going to keep these two offenses in check once again.

Colorado is 40-18 UNDER when the total is 11 or higher over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 13-3-1 in Dodgers last 17 road games with a total of 11 or higher.  The UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Rockies last eight home games.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Brewers -112

I love the spot for the Milwaukee Brewers today.  They will be looking to avoid the sweep after getting upset in their first two games of this series by the Cubs as -165 and -145 favorites.  Now we are getting the Brewers as less than -120 favorites in the avoid the sweep game.

Freddy Peralta is the better starter in this matchup with Marcus Stroman.  Peralta is 3-1 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in six career starts against the Cubs, and his teams are 5-1 in those six starts.  And he hasn't faced a Cubs lineup that is as poor as it is in 2022.

Milwaukee is 11-2 in its last 13 Sunday road games.  The Cubs are 18-48 in their last 66 games as underdogs.  Chicago is 2-9 in its last 11 home games.  The Brewers are 11-3 in the last 14 meetings.  Bet the Brewers Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Golden State Warriors -5.5

The San Antonio Spurs don't care about winning this game.  That's evident by the fact that they are resting each of their top four scorers in Murray, Johnson, Poeltl and Vassell.  They will also be without Doug McDermott, so they'll be without five of their top six scorers.

The Golden State Warriors are trying to fend off the Dallas Mavericks for the No. 3 seed in the West.  They are just 0.5 games ahead of the Mavericks.  It's evident the Warriors have been playing with a sense of urgency down the stretch in going 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  

Golden State is trying to win this game, and thus I'm willing to lay the 5.5 points on the road with them against a Spurs team that couldn't care less.  San Antonio is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games as a home underdog.  Bet the Warriors Saturday.

20* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Rangers/Blue Jays OVER 9

Any Toronto Total this season that is 9 or less I'm going to be looking at the OVER.  They have the best lineup in baseball and it's not really even close.  I think their pitching is suspect as well, and it should lead to many slug fests.

This is a Texas team that is a poor man's version of Toronto.  A lot of talent in the lineup but one of the worst staffs in MLB.  These teams combined for 18 runs yesterday as I easily cashed the OVER 9.  I'm back on the OVER 9 again today.

Dane Dunning went 5-10 with a 4.51 ERA and 1.436 WHIP across 117 2/3 innings for the Rangers last season.  Kevin Gausman was great for the Giants last year, but now he's back in the American League and his numbers will suffer as a result.

The OVER is 13-6-2 in the last 21 meetings.  The OVER is 6-2-2 in the last 10 meetings in Toronto.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Chicago White Sox -128

The Chicago White Sox blew a late 3-1 lead by giving up two runs in both the eighth and ninth innings in a 5-4 loss to the Tigers.  Look for them to bounce back today behind one of the best young starters in the game.

Dylan Cease went 13-7 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.249 WHIP in 32 starts for the White Sox last season with 226 K's in 165 2/3 innings.  His stuff is absolutely electric.  Cease has owned the Tigers, going 8-0 with a 2.10 ERA and 1.130 WHIP in nine career starts against them.

The White Sox are 37-17 in the last 54 meetings.  Roll with the White Sox Saturday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE MONTH on Oklahoma City Thunder +9.5

This is a terrible spot for the Los Angeles Lakers.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days after playing a road game at Golden State Thursday night.  They are likely to continue to rest LeBron, Davis and Westbrook and now their lack of depth makes this an even worse spot for them.

One thing you can't say about the Oklahoma City Thunder is that they don't play hard night in and night out.  They have been banged up all season and yet have been one of the best covering teams in the NBA in going 49-29-2 ATS.  They have gone 4-4 SU in their last eight games overall so they are trying to win games here down the stretch.

Asking the woeful Lakers to win by double-digits to beat us here is asking too much.  The Thunder are 27-9 ATS in their last 36 road games.  The Lakers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games vs. at eam with a losing record.  Oklahoma City is 6-0 ATS in its last six trips to Los Angeles.  Take the Thunder Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Hornets/Bulls OVER 227.5

The books have set the bar too low for this game between the Chicago Bulls and Charlotte Hornets tonight.  These are two great OVER teams, especially the Hornets.  They rank 4th in pace, 10th in offensive efficiency and 24th in defensive efficiency.  The Bulls rank 11th in offensive efficiency and 21st in defensive efficiency.

These teams have played twice already this season and both were shootouts that went OVER this total.  They combined for 252 points in their first meeting and 230 points in their second meeting.  It should be more of the same here with both teams almost at full strength.

The Bulls have really been poor defensively here down the stretch.  They have allowed 117, 127, 127 and 130 points in their last four games overall.  The Hornets haven't been much better, allowing 113 or more points in four of their last five, including 144 points twice in regulation.  But they have scored 114 or more points in four straight now.

Chicago is 11-2 OVER in home games with a total of 220 to 229.5 this season.  The Bulls are 12-3 OVER after scoring 100 points or less this season.  Charlotte is 48-28 OVER in its last 76 road games with a total of 220 to 229.5.  The OVER is 5-1 in Hornets last six road games.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Atlanta Hawks +3.5

Due to losses by the 76ers and Celtics Thursday night, the Miami Heat clinched the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference without even having to play.  It's safe to say the Heat are going to play it cautiously now over the final two games this season and likely rest their starters after achieving their goal of the No. 1 seed.

The Atlanta Hawks still have a lot to play for.  The 7th through 10th seeds in the East are all separated by two games or less.  It is important to get the 7th or 8th seeds so they don't have to win two games, which the 9th and 10th will have to do.  They are currently 9th and tied with the Nets for 8th and one game behind the Cavaliers for 7th.

The Hawks were disappointing most of the regular season, but they have picked up their play here down the stretch.  Indeed, the Hawks are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with their lone loss coming on the road to the Raptors.  They are in playoff mode right now and should not be underdogs to the Heat given what's at stake for both teams.  Take the Hawks Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston Rockets +14.5

The Houston Rockets have quietly gone 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They haven't lost any of their last eight games by more than 13 points, and only once have they been beaten by more than 7 points.  They continue to show up every night and compete.

That's important when backing a team that's catching 14.5 points.  And the spot couldn't be much worse for the Raptors.  They are coming off a huge 119-114 home win over the Philadelphia 76ers last night.  Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  Four starters played at least 37 minutes last night against the 76ers.  Don't be surprised to see some of these starters rest tonight.

Toronto is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games vs. poor teams that are outscored by 3-plus points per game.  Bet the Rockets Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Detroit Pistons +6.5

The Detroit Pistons are 19-1 ATS in their last 20 games as underdogs with 10 outright upsets.  They have been the single-most underrated team in the NBA since the All-Star Break.  And now they are catching too many points against the Milwaukee Bucks at home tonight.

You can count on the Pistons to show up every night.  That's evident by the fact that the Pistons have only lost one of their last 24 games by more than 11 points, and only two losses by more than 9 points.  They have lost just two of their last 19 games by more than 7 points.

The Pistons will be excited to face the defending champs in their final home game of the season.  The Bucks won't be excited for this game, and they will be running on fumes, too.  The Bucks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days after a huge 127-121 home win over the Celtics last night.  

This game screams letdown spot, and don't be surprised to see the Bucks rest almost all their starters given the difficult rest spot.  The Bucks are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games playing on zero rest.  The Pistons are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Pistons Friday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rangers/Blue Jays OVER 9

Any Toronto Total this season that is 9 or less I'm going to be looking at the OVER.  They have the best lineup in baseball and it's not really even close.  I think their pitching is suspect as well, and it should lead to many slug fests.

Jose Berrios has not had much success against Texas, going 2-1 with a 5.47 ERA in five career starts against them.  This is a Texas team that is a poor man's version of Toronto.  A lot of talent in the lineup but one of the worst staffs in MLB.  That's evident by the fact that Jon Gray is their opening day starter.

The OVER is 6-1 in Rangers last seven games as underdogs.  The OVER is 21-10-2 in Rangers last 33 road games with a total set of 9 to 10.5.  The OVER is 5-2-2 in the last nine meetings in Toronto.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Seattle Mariners +105

The Seattle Mariners are one of my favorite sleeper teams in baseball this season.  I think they will be one of the best teams in the league and will end that playoff drought.  They have an explosive lineup that is grossly underrated with home run power throughout.

I love the addition of ace Robbie Ray at the top of their rotation.  Ray went 13-7 with a 2.84 ERA and a 1.045 WHIP with 248 K's in 193 1/3 innings in Toronto last season.  He is the bonafide Ace they needed.

I like the Twins' lineup this season, but they have one of the worst rotations in baseball, and that's evident by the fact that they have Joe Ryan starting on Opening Day.  He pitched just five innings for the Twins last season.

Seattle went 43-24 (+22.2 Units) with a money line of +125 to -125 last season.  The Twins are 9-21 in their last 30 home games vs. a left-handed starter.  Roll with the Mariners Friday.

20* Lakers/Warriors TNT No-Brainer on Golden State -12.5

The Los Angeles Lakers have officially been eliminated from the playoffs.  They are ready for this disastrous season to be over.  They will be sitting LeBron James and likely Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook tonight.  I give them almost zero chance of keeping this game competitive against the Golden State Warriors.

The Warriors still have a lot to play for.  They are just 0.5 games ahead of the Dallas Mavericks for the 3rd seed in the Western Conference.  They are playing well pulling the upset of the Jazz before crushing the Kings 109-90 on the road.  Now they come in on three days' rest fresh and ready to go tonight.

The Lakers are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 games following an ATS win.  The Warriors are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games playing on three or more days' rest.  Bet the Warriors Thursday.

20* 2022 MLB Season Opener on Astros/Angels OVER 8.5

The Houston Astros have one of the best lineups in baseball.  They are dangerous from top to bottom, especially the top six in Altuve, Brantley, Bregman, Alvarez, Gurriel and Tucker.

The Los Angeles Angels should be one of the better offenses in the American League with a healthy Mike Trout back.  The top four are very strong with Ohtani, Trout, Walsh and Rendon leading the way.  Rendon should have a big-time bounce back campaign.

The OVER is 5-0 in Framber Valdez's last five starts against the Angels.  He has allowed 16 earned runs in 26 innings for a 5.54 ERA in his last four starts against Los Angeles.

Shohei Ohtani has never beaten the Astros, going 0-2 with a 6.87 ERA and 1.729 WHIP in five career starts against them.  He has allowed 15 earned runs in 19 2/3 innings in those five starts.

Temperatures will be in the 90's with prime scoring conditions come game time Thursday night in Los Angeles.  The OVER is 21-10 in the last 31 meetings.  The OVER is 12-5 in the last 17 meetings in Los Angeles.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Suns/Clippers ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles PK

Despite not having much to play for, the Los Angeles Clippers are trying to form some chemistry and momentum heading into the playoffs.  That is evident by the fact that they have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall despite playing four playoff teams.

They beat the Jazz 121-115 at home, lost 130-135 (OT) at Chicago in a game they led the entire way until overtime, crushed the Bucks 153-119 on the road and crushed the Pelicans 119-100 at home.  They want to form chemistry with Paul George recently returning from injury.  And they are fresh and ready to go tonight playing on two days' rest having last played on Sunday.

The Suns are not fresh and don't care about winning these last few games.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 121-110 home win over the LeBron-less Lakers last night.  They are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  Their previous two games showed they don't care about winning since they are already locked in to the No. 1 seed.  They lost outright 114-122 at Memphis as 7.5-point favorites and followed it up with a 96-117 outright loss as 14-point favorites at Oklahoma City.  

The Suns can't be trusted to show up right now, and they could rest a bunch of guys in this 2nd of a back-to-back.  Los Angeles is 19-9 ATS in the last 28 meetings, including 11-3 ATS in the last 14 home meetings.  Bet the Clippers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Celtics/Bulls OVER 221.5

The Boston Celtics recently lost C Robert Williams to a knee injury.  He was the backbone of their defense even though Marcus Smart gets all the credit.  Since his loss, the Celtics have had to play more small ball and the results have made them an offensive juggernaut and an OVER machine.

Indeed, the OVER is 7-1 in Celtics last eight games overall.  They have combined for 222 or more points with their opponents in eight of their last nine games overall.  They have scored at least 124 points in seven of their last nine games.  They are allowing 111.6 points per game and 48.4% shooting in their last five games so the loss of Williams has hurt defensively.

The OVER is 3-0 in Bulls last three games overall.  They combined for 265 points with the Clippers, 236 points with the Heat and 233 points with the Bucks.  This has been a high-scoring series this season with the Bulls and Celtics combining for 242 and 226 points in their two meetings.

Chicago is 11-1 OVER in home games with a total of 220 to 229.5 this season.  The OVER is 15-5-1 in Celtics last 51 games overall.  The OVER is 5-0 in Bulls last five games following a double-digit home loss.  Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +8.5

The Detroit Pistons are a perfect 19-0 ATS in their last 19 games as underdogs with 10 outright upsets.  They have been the single-most underrated team in the NBA since the All-Star Break.  And now they are catching a whopping 8.5 points against the Dallas Mavericks at home tonight.

You can count on the Pistons to show up every night.  That's evident by the fact that the Pistons haven't lost any of their last 23 games by more than 11 points, and only one loss by more than 9 points.  They have lost just one of their last 19 games by more than 7 points, making for an 18-1 system pertaining to this 8.5-point spread.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Mavericks, who are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have a way of playing to their level of competition.  That was evident in their lone loss during this stretch when they were blasted 103-135 at Washington as 7.5-point road favorites.

Detroit is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  They have played up to their level of competition for over a month.  They will be excited about this opportunity on the National TV stage on ESPN and will continue playing their best basketball of the season to stay within this number and possibly pull off yet another upset.  Take the Pistons Wednesday.

20* Lakers/Suns NBA TV No-Brainer on Los Angeles +12

The Los Angeles Lakers should not be catching 12 points against the Phoenix Suns given the discrepancy in motivation.  The Lakers are in must-win mode if they want to make the playoffs and took the Nuggets to the wire last time out even without LeBron James.

The Phoenix Suns are locked in to the No. 1 seed in the West and have absolutely nothing to play for.  That has showed in their level of play the last two games.  They lost outright 114-122 at Memphis as 7.5-point favorites and followed it up with an outright 96-117 loss as 14-point favorites at short-handed Oklahoma City.  Why would they show up tonight?  Take the Lakers Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +9.5

The San Antonio Spurs are playing their best basketball of the season trying to make the playoffs here down the stretch.  They have gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with their lone loss coming by a single point to the Memphis Grizzlies.

The Spurs should not be catching 9.5 points against the Denver Nuggets with how well they are playing right now.  This game means a lot more to the Spurs than it does the Nuggets.  This is a Denver team that has been overvalued for weeks, going just 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games overall.

San Antonio is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Spurs are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games as road underdogs of 6.5 to 12 points.  San Antonio is 19-9 ATS in its last 28 trips to Denver.  Bet the Spurs Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wizards/Timberwolves OVER 237.5

Two great OVER teams square off tonight when the Washington Wizards visit the Minnesota Timberwolves.  This game should see 240-plus combined points with ease tonight to cash this OVER ticket.

The Timberwolves are coming off two massive shootouts with 266 combined points against Denver and 271 combined points against Houston.  They have allowed 125 or more points in five of their last six games overall and are one of the best offensive teams in the NBA.  

The Wizards have gone OVER the total in three straight, combining for 237 points with Orlando, 238 points with Dallas and 246 points with Boston.  Both Boston and Dallas are not over teams as they are two of the better defensive teams in the NBA.

Minnesota is 20-3 OVER in its last 23 games after allowing 130 points or more last game.  The Timberwolves are 16-2 OVER in their last 18 games vs. teams that make 46% of their shots or better.  The OVER is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings.  The OVER is 8-0 in Timberwolves last eight vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Houston Rockets +17.5

The Brooklyn Nets shouldn't be favored by 17 points over anyone.  They have been disappointing down the stretch despite having both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving healthy.  They are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone win coming by 7 points over the Detroit Pistons as 14-point home favorites.

The problem with the Raptors right now is they have key injuries to their role players.  Seth Curry, Bruce Brown, Goran Dragic and James Johnson are all on the injury report.  Without being at full strength, the Nets are going to have a problem putting away the Rockets by 18-plus points to cover this number.

Houston has quietly gone 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games overall and has not packed it in.  The Rockets haven't lost any of their last six games by more than 7 points.  That includes a 7-point loss to the Timberwolves as 13.5-point underdogs last time out.

Brooklyn is a woeful 5-24-1 ATS in its last 30 home games, including 4-23 ATS in its last 27 games as a home favorite.  The Nets can't be laying 17.5 points here.  Take the Rockets Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on 76ers/Pacers OVER 233

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall combining for 255 points with the Hawks, 243 points with the Nuggets, 251 points with the Celtics and 238 points with the Pistons.

The Pacers play at a fast place and play zero defense, which has been the case for Rick Carlisle-coached teams for a few years now.  The Pacers have allowed 121 or more points in six consecutive games.  The 76ers will oblige as they recently put up 144 points against the Hornets.

Indiana is 8-0 OVER in its last eight games as a home underdog of 6.5 to 12 points.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  The OVER is 36-17 in Pacers last 53 home games.  Roll with the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* UNC/Kansas Championship Game No-Brainer on Kansas -4

The Kansas Jayhawks have been dominant in their last two games.  They beat Miami 76-50 before taking a 10-0 lead against Villanova and never looking back in an 81-65 victory.  They have really impressed me defensively down the stretch, allowing 72 or fewer points in 10 consecutive games, including 68 or fewer in nine of those.  They now have the defensive ability to match their tremendous offensive ability.

The North Carolina Tar Heels have also been impressive in pulling three upsets to make the title game as the 8th seed.  They have been undervalued up to this point, but now they will meet their match in the Kansas Jayhawks.  A couple factors have me thinking the Tar Heels cannot hang with the Jayhawks.

The main one is the injury to UNC's most important player in Armando Bacot.  He suffered an ankle injury late in the win over Duke and was noticeably limping up and down the court when he came back into the game.  He won't be anywhere near 100%.  Bacot has 30 double-doubles this season and is one shy of David Robinson's record.  They will miss his defense and rebounding when he's hobbling around out there.

There's no such thing as a letdown in a title game.  But with all the hype surrounding their win over rival Duke, it's going to be hard for the Tar Heels to match the intensity they played with in that back-and-forth game here just two days later.  They had to play in the late game while Kansas got to sit around and watch, and the Jayhawks will be the fresher, more prepared team because of it.  Bet Kansas Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -14

The Portland Trail Blazers are openly tanking.  They are 2-16 SU & 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games overall with eight losses by 30 points or more and 12 losses by 14 points or more.  They have nine players on the injury report that are out, plus they traded away McCollum, Powell and Covington.

The San Antonio Spurs are battling with the Los Angeles Lakers for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference.  They have come up clutch down the stretch in going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  That includes a 133-96 win at Portland on March 23rd and a 130-111 home win over Portland on April 1st.

I like knowing that the Spurs won't be taking the Blazers lightly given what's at stake for them, which is why I'm willing to lay this big of a number.  It should be more of the same here with yet another win by 15-plus points to cover this number.  Roll with the Spurs Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +5

The New York Knicks have officially been eliminated from the playoffs.  They played like it yesterday in their 101-119 upset home loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers.  Now they'll have to play the 2nd of a back-to-back with eight players on the injury report.  They shut down Julius Randle for the season.

The Magic aren't playing great, but the spot favors them and they shouldn't be 5-point home underdogs to a Knicks team that doesn't care about wins and is tired playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  This is their most winnable game left on the schedule and I fully expect them to take advantage.

Orlando is 14-6 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games this season.  The Knicks are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit home loss.  New York is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite.  Orlando is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Magic Sunday.

20* Nuggets/Lakers ABC No-Brainer Los Angeles +3

It's now or never for the Los Angeles Lakers if they want to make the playoffs.  LeBron James, Anthony Davis and company have too much pride to go away quietly.  I think we are getting the Lakers are one of their best values of the season as home underdogs to the Denver Nuggets tonight.

This is an inconsistent Nuggets team that doesn't deserve to be favored on the road here.  The Nuggets are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  They have not done well when they have stepped up in class, and they have narrow wins over some bad teams recently in the Thunder, Hornets and Pacers.

The Lakers have lost five straight coming in, but all five were to playoff contenders in the 76ers, Pelicans (twice), Mavericks and Jazz.  And they didn't have AD and LeBron for any of those games except the 3-point loss to the Pelicans.  They will have better chemistry in their 2nd game back together, and they should pull the upset today at home to stay alive for the playoffs.

Denver is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after four straight games where it had five or more rebounds than its opponent.  The Nuggets are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  Los Angeles is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five games as a home underdog.  Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to Los Angeles.  Bet the Lakers Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Jazz/Warriors UNDER 218

The Golden State Warriors have been struggling offensively without Stephen Curry.  They have averaged just 103.4 points per game in their last eight games overall.  But they are still a pretty good defensive team with Draymond Green and company, ranking 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

The Utah Jazz are a much better defensive team with Rudy Gobert healthy, and he is right now.  I think this game will be like a playoff game with the Warriors trying to hang on to home-court advantage in the first round, and the Jazz trying to get it.  They are two games behind the Warriors and 1.5 games behind the Mavericks for the 3rd and 4th seeds.

This has been a low-scoring series in recent meetings.  Indeed, these teams have met twice since January 23rd.  The Warriors won 94-92 at home for just 186 combined points.  The Jazz got their revenge with a 111-85 home win and only 196 combined points on February 9th.  This will be their 4th and final meeting, and familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.

Golden State is 9-1 UNDER in home games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or better this season.  The UNDER is 9-1-1 in Jazz last 11 games following a win by more than 10 points.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Jazz last eight games as road favorites.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Warriors last seven home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Kansas -4

The Kansas Jayhawks showed their true potential when they outscored Miami by 32 in the second half to win 76-50 and claim their spot in the Final Four.  They have really impressed me defensively down the stretch, allowing 72 or fewer points in nine consecutive games, including 68 or fewer in eight of those.  They now have the defensive ability to match their tremendous offensive ability.

Give Villanova credit for making it this far despite really only going six deep consistently.  But now they suffered a huge blow with the loss of G Justin Moore, who suffered a torn achilles in the win over Houston last round.  Moore (15.3 PPG, 5.2 RPG) is someone they could not afford to lose.  Now their lack of depth is exacerbated with the loss of Moore, and I give them little to no chance of keeping this game with Kansas competitive.

Kansas is 8-0 ATS vs. poor passing teams that average 12 or fewer assists per game after 15-plus games over the past three seasons.  The Wildcats will fall behind in this game and they won't be able to play catch up without Moore.  His loss isn't being factored enough into this line.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

20* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Nuggets UNDER 242

The Minnesota Timberwolves have a couple injuries that have quietly hurt them offensively.  They are without Jaden McDaniels and Malik Beasley, two role players that were huge for them making this surge in the second half.  The Timberwolves have now scored 116 or fewer points in five consecutive games.

Denver prefers to play at a slower pace and will control the tempo playing at home tonight.  The Nuggets rank 20th in the NBA in pace this season.  Both teams are in the middle of the pack in defensive efficiency as well.

Head-to-head history says there's value with the UNDER.  Five of the last six meetings between the Nuggets and Timberwolves have seen 239 or fewer combined points.  This will be the 4th and final meeting between these teams, and familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.

This total has been bet up from 233.5 all the way up to 242, so there's value with the UNDER based on the line move, too.  I also like the fact that both teams will be playing with defensive intensity tonight as the Timberwolves are trying to chase down the Nuggets for the 6th seed in the West.  This is a meaningful game, and both teams will treat it like a playoff game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -1.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Chicago Bulls right now.  They have gone through their worst stretch of the season over the past month.  But they are now as healthy as they have been all season with only Lonzo Ball being out.  And they have shown they can play well without him.

The Clippers are getting too much respect due to getting Paul George back and completing a huge comeback to beat the Utah Jazz at home on Tuesday.  They had gone 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their previous five games overall.

The key here is the Bulls are the more motivated team.  They have a lot more to play for sitting in the 5th spot trying to move up to 4th or at least avoid falling into the play-in round.  The Clippers are essentially locked in to the 8th seed in the West, 5.5 games behind 7th seed Minnesota and 4 games ahead of 9th seed New Orleans.  They really don't have anything to play for until the playoffs.

Los Angeles is 1-10 ATS when revenging a loss as a home favorite this season.  Chicago is 23-7 ATS in its last 30 games as a home favorite.  The Bulls are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Bulls Thursday.

20* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +10

The Detroit Pistons are a perfect 17-0 ATS in their last 17 games as underdogs with eight outright upsets.  They have been the single-most underrated team in the NBA since the All-Star Break.  And now they are catching a whopping 10 points against the Philadelphia 76ers tonight.

You can count on the Pistons to show up every night.  That's evident by the fact that the Pistons haven't lost any of their last 20 games by more than 11 points, and only one loss by more than 9 points.  That makes for a 19-1 system backing the Pistons pertaining to this 10-point spread.

Philadelphia just played two of the best teams in the NBA and the two teams that made the NBA Finals in the Suns and Bucks in back-to-back games.  They came up short in both, and now they'll have a hard time getting motivated to face the Pistons after losing to those two.  This is also a tired Philadelphia team playing their 11th game in 19 days.  Take the Pistons Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -13.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are openly tanking.  They are 2-14 SU & 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games overall with eight losses by 30 points or more and 11 losses by 14 points or more.  They have nine players on the injury report that are out, plus they traded away McCollum, Powell and Covington.

The Pelicans are fighting to make the playoffs right now as they are currently 9th in the West just one game ahead of the Spurs and Lakers.  One of those three teams will not make the playoffs, and the Pelicans are playing with a sense of urgency right now that has them playing some of their best basketball of the season.

Indeed, the Pelicans are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their two losses coming by 3 and 4 points.  They beat the Spurs by 33, upset the Hawks on the road, beat the Bulls by 17 at home and beat the Lakers by 8 at home.  They just got Brandon Ingram back from injury and his addition will make them a dangerous team moving forward.  Former Blazer McCollum will not be taking this game lightly, and neither will his teammates given what's at stake.

Portland is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games after allowing 130 points or more.  The Blazers are 1-9 ATS following a loss by 6 points or less this season.  The Pelicans are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games.  The Blazers are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 home games.  Roll with the Pelicans Wednesday.

20* Heat/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Miami +5.5

The Miami Heat put their differences aside and crushed Sacramento 123-100 at home on Monday.  They realize they are in 1st place in the East with three teams within 1.5 games of them.  They have a great opportunity to get home-court advantage down the stretch, and I look for them to put it all on the line tonight.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Heat after going 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Conversely, it's a great time to 'sell high' on the Celtics, who have gone 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.

The Heat want revenge from two blowout losses to the Celtics in their two meetings this season.  They won't have to deal with Robert Williams, who suffered a meniscus tear two games ago and is one of the more underrated players in the league.  The Celtics will take a big hit defensively without his presence moving forward.

Miami is a perfect 10-0 ATS in its last 10 road games after losing three of its last four games coming in.  The Heat are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine road games.  Miami is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 trips to Boston.  It will be good for them to get on the road and get away from the distractions at home here.  Bet the Heat Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +3.5

The Orlando Magic are 7-9 SU & 9-7 ATS in their last 16 games overall and have not packed it in.  They have been competitive in most their losses during this stretch.  This is a favorable spot for them playing just their 3rd game in 7 days as they will be rested and ready to go.

The same cannot be said for the Wizards, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 94-107 home loss to the Chicago Bulls last night.  The Wizards will also be playing their 5th game in 7 days, which is about as tough a situation as there is in the NBA today.  They should not be favored over the Magic given this terrible rest spot for them.

Orlando is 11-1 ATS after failing to cover five or six of its last seven ATS this season.  The Magic are 19-9 ATS in road games when revenging a loss this season.  Washington is 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 games as a favorite.  The Wizards are 7-23-1 ATS in their last 31 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Magic are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as underdogs.  Orlando is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings, including 5-0 ATS in its last five trips to Washington.  Take the Magic Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Detroit Pistons +14

The Detroit Pistons are a perfect 16-0 ATS in their last 16 games as underdogs with eight outright upsets.  They have been the single-most underrated team in the NBA since the All-Star Break.  And now they are catching a whopping 14 points against the Brooklyn Nets tonight.

You can count on the Pistons to show up every night.  That's evident by the fact that the Pistons haven't lost any of their last 19 games by more than 11 points, making for a 19-0 system backing them pertaining to this 14-point spread.

The Nets don't have a lot to play for here down the stretch.  They are basically going to be anywhere from the 7 seed to the 10 seed to where they have to play in the play-in round no matter what.  Of course, it's beneficial for them to get the 7 or the 8 over the 9 or the 10, but I don't think they will be playing with an extra sense of urgency.

The Nets are 5-22-1 ATS in their last 28 home games.  Brooklyn is 5-23 ATS in its last 28 games as a home favorite.  Detroit is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games.  The Pistons are 16-2 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  Bet the Pistons Tuesday.

20* St. Bonaventure/Xavier NIT No-Brainer on St. Bonaventure -1.5

The St. Bonaventure Bonnies have had the much tougher path to the NIT semifinals than the Xavier Musketeers have.  They are the better team as well and should be bigger than 1.5-point favorites over the Musketeers in essentially a pick the winner situation.

The Bonnies are 11-2 SU & 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They have pulled off three straight outright upsets on the road as underdogs in the NIT over Colorado, Oklahoma and Virginia just to get here.  You know this veteran team that returned all five starters from last year's NCAA Tournament team isn't about to squander this opportunity now.  They are 'all in' to win the NIT and this will be their easiest test yet.

Xavier has been grossly overvalued in the 2nd half of the season.  The Musketeers are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games overall.  They are just 4-6 SU in their last 10 games overall.  They got to play three straight home games in the NIT to get here against Cleveland State, Florida, and Vanderbilt.  And they were in dog fights with Cleveland State (won by 4) and Vanderbilt (won by 2).  Keep in mind they lost their best player in their win over Florida in Paul Scruggs (11.9 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 4.0 APG) and he is out for the remainder of the tournament.

The Bonnies are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 neutral site games as favorites.  The Musketeers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win.  Xavier is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bonnies are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as neutral court favorites or PK.  St. Bonaventure is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games off an upset win as a road underdog.  Bet St. Bonaventure Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Spurs/Rockets OVER 234

The way the San Antonio Spurs and Houston Rockets play usually results in a shootout.  For starters, the Rockets rank 2nd in the NBA in pace while the Spurs rank 4th, so this game is sure to be a barn burner with both teams getting up and down the floor.

Neither team likes to play defense, either.  The Rockets rank dead last (30th) in the NBA in defensive efficiency, while the Spurs rank 20th in that same category.  But both teams have trended under the total recently with the Rockets going 6-0 their last six and the Spurs 4-0 their last four, which is keeping this total lower than it should be.

This will be the 4th meeting between the Spurs and Rockets this season and each of the first three have gone OVER this 234-point total.  They combined for 252, 238 and 237 points in those three meetings.  It should be more of the same here in another shootout.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -3.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Chicago Bulls after going 4-10 SU & 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  I cashed them outright as underdogs at Cleveland on Saturday, and I'm back on them again here Monday as only 3.5-point road favorites over the New York Knicks.

While the Bulls had yesterday off and are fully healthy with the exception of Lonzo Ball, the Knicks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Bulls after a 104-102 road win at Detroit yesterday and now having to travel back to New York.

It's also a good time to 'sell high' on the Knicks, who have gone 5-2 SU in their last seven games and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games.  That's why they are getting some respect here with such a short number.  But the Bulls are far and away the better team and in the much better spot.  Chicago also has a lot more to play for in the Eastern Conference playoff race.

Chicago is 18-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  New York is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games following a win.  The Knicks are 2-13 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  The Bulls are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games as favorites.  New York is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games, including 0-5 ATS in its last five games as a home underdog.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +13

The Miami Heat are falling apart at the seams.  They got in a big argument on the sidelines in their 104-118 upset loss at 10-point favorites to Golden State.  Then they came back and blew a 17-point 4th quarter lead, getting outscored 38-13 to close to lose 103-111 to the New York Knicks as 9.5-point home favorites.

The Heat went on to lost 95-110 at home to the Nets and that was an even bigger blowout than the final score would suggest as they trailed by 28 entering the 4th quarter.  The Heat are now 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall and cannot be trusted right now to lay this big of a number to the Sacramento Kings given their chemistry issues.

The Kings have quietly been a money maker down the stretch and have flexed their depth without Fox and Sabonis.  Sacramento is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games overall.  The last three games have been very impressive.  They took Phoenix to OT in a 3-point home loss as 8-point dogs, upset Indiana on the road as 6-point dogs and upset the Magic on the road as 2.5-point dogs.

Sacramento is rested and ready to go playing just its 3rd game in 8 days tonight.  Miami will be playing its 3rd game in 4 days.  The Heat are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games following two or more consecutive ATS losses.  The Kings are 49-33 ATS in their last 82 games as road underdogs, including 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games in this role.  The Heat are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games.  Miami is 0-6 ATS in its last six games as a favorite.  Sacramento is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Roll with the Kings Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota Timberwolves +6.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are one of the hottest teams in the NBA.  They have gone 11-3 SU & 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  They continue to lack the respect they deserve as 6.5-point road underdogs to the Boston Celtics today.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Celtics, who are 12-2 SU in their last 14 games overall.  But unlike the Timberwolves, they are getting that respect.  This line should be much closer to PK.  I'll gladly take the value with the road underdogs here.

Minnesota is a perfect 9-0 ATS in Sunday games this season.  Boston is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games after covering four of its last five ATS.  The Celtics are 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a win by more than 10 points.  Bet the Timberwolves Sunday.

15* 76ers/Suns Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Philadelphia +5

The Philadelphia 76ers have a lot to play for right now.  They are percentage points ahead of the Miami Heat for the No. 1 seed in the East with four teams within 0.5 games of each other for that top spot.

The Phoenix Suns have nothing to play for right now.  They have already locked up the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference and the No. 1 seed overall in the playoffs.  If they continue playing at the high level they have been all season, more power to them.  But I'm willing to bet against that here down the stretch.

The 76ers are starting to form a nice chemistry with James Harden on board now.  They have gone 12-4 SU in their last 16 games overall and are coming off a 25-point road win over the Clippers on Friday.  Look for them to take the Suns to the wire on the road tonight and likely pull off the upset.

Plays on road teams (Philadelphia) - when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent that is off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog are 55-24 (69.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The 76ers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in its last even games as a road underdog.  Roll with the 76ers Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Detroit Pistons +4

The Detroit Pistons are a perfect 15-0 ATS in their last 15 games as underdogs with eight outright upsets.  They have been the single-most underrated team in the NBA since the All-Star Break.  And now they are a home dog to the New York Knicks tonight when they shouldn't be.

The Knicks are five games out of the playoffs in the East with 10 games to play.  They are all but eliminated.  But they are getting respect here as road favorites off two straight upset road wins over the Hornets as 8.5-point dogs and the Heat as 9.5-point dogs.    Now they come back as 4-point road favorites at Detroit, which is too big of an adjustment considering this obvious letdown spot.  Take the Pistons Sunday.

20* Miami/Kansas Elite 8 No-Brainer on Miami +6.5

The ACC has proven to be the most underrated conference in the NCAA Tournament with three teams in the Elite 8.  And Miami has been the most underrated team in the ACC this season.  Note that they beat UNC by 28 and upset Duke on the road as 15-point underdogs while also losing to Duke by just 4 as 8.5-point dogs in the ACC Tournament.

I was on Miami in their first two NCAA Tournament games as they upset both USC and Auburn.  I regret not taking them against Iowa State, too.  I won't make that mistake here as I will back the Hurricanes catching too many points against Kansas.  These are two mediocre defensive teams that can light you up on offense and I think this line should be much closer to a PK.

Miami has some of the best guards in the country and I actually favor their guards over Kansas here.  Remy Martin will be a defensive liability for Kansas.  McGusty (17.5 PPG, Wong 15.5 PPG and Moore (12.5 PPG) are all studs, and big man Waardenburg (43.4% 3-pointers) is a matchup nightmare.  In fact, each of Miami's five starters all shoot at least 31% from 3-point range.

Kansas has had the much easier path to the Elite 8 and has struggled to put away each of the last two teams after blowing out Texas Southern.  They only beat Creighton 79-72 as 12.5-point favorites, and that was a Creighton team missing two starters.  They only beat Providence 66-61 as 6.5-point favorites, and the Friars were fortunate to make it this far winning so many close games this year.  Look for this game to go down to the wire against Miami as well.

The Hurricanes are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games as underdogs, including 11-2 ATS as underdogs this season.  Miami is 7-1 ATS in its last eight neutral site games as an underdog.  Kansas is 1-5 ATS in its last six NCAA Tournament games.  The Hurricanes are 16-5 SU & 15-6 ATS in all games played away from home this season.  Roll with Miami Sunday.

15* Arkansas/Duke Elite 8 ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas +4

Duke had about everything go right for them in their Sweet 16 comeback win over Texas Tech down the stretch.  They couldn't miss a shot or a free throw.  Their zone defense confused Texas Tech in the 2nd half as they weren't prepared for it.  Arkansas will be prepared for everything, and Duke won't be catching them by surprise here, nor will they be as hot as they were down the stretch of that game.

Arkansas proved what it was capable of with a 74-68 win over Gonzaga as 9.5-point underdogs last round.  The Razorbacks basically just continued playing they way they have all 2nd half of this season.  Indeed, they are 18-3 SU in their last 21 games overall with two of those losses by 4 points or less.  So they have lost just one of their last 21 games by more than 4 points, making for a 20-1 system backing the Razorbacks pertaining to this 4-point spread.

Duke is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall and playing some terrible defense down the stretch.  The Blue Devils have allowed 73 or more points in six of their last seven games.  Arkansas is the much better defensive team, ranking 11th in the country in adjusted defense.  They have allowed 76 or fewer points in 19 of their last 21 games, and 68 or fewer in 12 of those.  I'll gladly side with the better defensive team catching points here.

Duke is 0-6 ATS vs. teams that make 31% or less of their 3-pointers over the last two seasons.  Arkansas is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS win.  The Razorbacks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.  The Blue Devils are 2-7 ATS in their last nine NCAA Tournament games.  Coach K is 1-5 all-time in the Pacific Time Zone in the NCAA Tournament.  This will be the Razorbacks' 2nd consecutive trip to the Elite 8 so they have that experience, and they will have just that extra motivation to make the Final 4 this time around.  Take Arkansas Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bulls +2.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Chicago Bulls.  They have gone just 3-10 SU & 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They should be favored here over the Cleveland Cavaliers considering they are finally as healthy as they have been in a long time and get DeMar DeRozan back from injury tonight.  The only key player they are missing is Lonzo Ball, who they have been without for a long time.

The Cavaliers are the team with the big injury concerns, playing without Jarrett Allen, Rajon Rondo and Dean Wade.  They have not been playing well without Allen.  They are just 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  They needed a late rally to beat the Pistons by 4 as 6-point home favorites, lost to the Lakers by 11 as 4.5-point home favorites and lost to the Raptors by 13 as 5-point road dogs in their last three games coming in.

The Bulls have crushed the Cavaliers in their last two meetings, winning 117-104 and 101-91.  Chicago is 33-15 ATS in the last 48 meetings.  The Bulls are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 trips to Cleveland.  Cleveland is 18-47-2 ATS in its last 67 games following an ATS loss.  Roll with the Bulls Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Cavaliers OVER 222

The Chicago Bulls and their opponents have combined for at least 224 points in three of their last four games.  They have allowed 125 or more points in four of their last five games.  I expect them to win a shootout tonight with the Cleveland Cavaliers.

The key here is that the Cavaliers are without Jarrett Allen.  He is one of the best defenders in the league.  Without him, the Cavaliers have become soft on defense and have had to play more small ball on offense.  That is evident by the fact that the Cavaliers are 6-0 OVER in their last six games overall with combined scores of 221 or more points in all six.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -3.5

The Miami Heat are falling apart at the seams.  They got in a big argument on the sidelines in their 104-118 upset loss at 10-point favorites to Golden State.  Then they came back last night and blew a 17-point 4th quarter lead, getting outscored 38-13 to close to lose 103-111 to the New York Knicks as 9.5-point home favorites.

The Heat can't be trusted in this spot.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  Meanwhile, the Brookyn Nets come in rested and ready to go playing on two days' rest and just their 3rd game in 8 days.

The Nets will have Kyrie Irving for this game, and they just got the news that he will be allowed to play in home games.  This team has a lot of good mojo right now because of that news, plus they have both Seth Curry and Goran Dragic healthy for this one.  I like for them to run the Heat out of the building tonight and take advantage of their tired legs.

The Nets are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games and have really formed a nice chemistry with Irving on the highway.  Brooklyn is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following an ATS loss.  Miami is 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall and reeling.  Bet the Nets Saturday.

20* Houston/Villanova Elite 8 No-Brainer on Houston -2

The Houston Cougars look like the best team in the country.  They have gone 12-1 SU & 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Their wins over UAB by 14, Illinois by 15 and Arizona by 12 in the NCAA Tournament couldn't have been any more impressive.

You can rely on the Cougars to be the tougher team and the better defensive team every time they hit the floor, and that can take you a long way.  They rank 10th in the country in adjusted defense and 8th in adjusted offense.  Nothing ever comes easy against the Cougars, and they are tough to defend on offense because they are so balanced.

Villanova has faced the easier path to this point by far, beating Delaware, Ohio State and Michigan.  They have managed to get by those last two teams in close affairs thanks to some clutch FT shooting down the stretch.  But I don't expect them to have the lead down the stretch to put that FT shooting on display.  And the Wildcats really only go six deep, so I expect the Cougars to wear them down, especially having to play their 2nd game in 3 days here.

Houston is 9-1 ATS in neutral court games this season.  Villanova is 1-7 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 16 or more assists per game this season.  This will also essentially be a home game for the Cougars being played in San Antonio, TX.  I just love this Houston team and I'm willing to ride them as far as they will take me as long as the price is right, and it's right here as a short favorite.  Bet Houston Saturday.

20* UNC/UCLA Sweet 16 No-Brainer on on UNC +2.5

The North Carolina Tar Heels have saved their best basketball for last.  They are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall with their lone loss coming to ACC champion Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament.  That includes a 94-81 upset win at Duke as 11-point underdogs and a 95-63 blowout win over Marquette in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament.

The Tar Heels proved none of this was a fluke with their 93-86 (OT) upset win over No. 1 seed and defending national champion Baylor in the Round of 32.  And that game wasn't nearly as close as the final score would indicate.  The Tar Heels led by 25 in the 2nd half before Brady Manek was inexplicably thrown out of the game, and PG Caleb Love fouled out.  Give the Tar Heels credit for surviving those two key losses and winning the OT.  That kind of win will give this team the confidence they need to beat UCLA Friday.

After a 57-53 scare as a 13.5-point favorite against Akron, everything went right for UCLA in its 72-56 win over St. Mary's last round.  The Bruins shot 56.5% as a team against a very good St. Mary's defense, which is definitely fluky.  They used their athleticism to dominate the Gaels.  That won't work against the Tar Heels, who are one of the most athletic, talented teams in the country.  It also won't help that UCLA's best player in Jaime Jaquez Jr. is nursing and ankle injury suffered against the Gaels and won't be 100% for this one.

UCLA is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 vs. ACC opponents.  The Bruins are 3-10 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make 45% or better this season.  The Tar Heels are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take North Carolina Friday.

20* Mavs/Timberwolves NBA No-Brainer on Minnesota -1.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves have been one of the best teams in the NBA over the past month.  They have gone 10-3 SU & 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They have a lot to play for the rest of the way as they are currently the 7th seed in the West and only one game back of the Nuggets for the 6th seed, which would have them avoiding the play-in round.

I love the spot for the Timberwolves tonight.  They are coming off two straight painful losses blowing a 13-point halftime lead to the Suns and also losing 108-110 at Dallas the game prior.  Now they get their shot at revenge on the Mavericks at home this time around.  Minnesota is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games with all six wins coming by 14 points or more and that lone loss to the Suns, the best team in the NBA.

Minnesota is 17-5 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  The home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings.  The Timberwolves are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games as home favorites.  Roll with the Timberwolves Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -2.5

The Detroit Pistons have been the single-most underrated team in the NBA down the stretch.  They have gone 15-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall and are coming off a 122-101 upset home win as 5-point underdogs to the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday.  

When they have Jerami Grant and Cade Cunningham on the floor at the same time, they have been a force.  The Pistons have been competitive in each of their last 16 games during this run not once losing by more than 11 points.  They should handle the Washington Wizards tonight.

The Wizards look to be tanking.  They are just 1-8 SU & 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  This is a tough spot for the Wizards as they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following a 102-114 loss in Milwaukee last night in which the Bucks were without Giannis and Middleton.  They won't have much left in the tank for Detroit tonight.  Bet the Pistons Friday.

25* Sweet 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas Tech PK

The Texas Tech Red Raiders have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season.  They have gone 27-9 SU & 22-14 ATS this season with most of their losses coming down to the wire against elite teams.  They played in the toughest conference in the country as the Big 12 has proven to be just that in the NCAA Tournament thus far.

I think Duke is getting too much respect due to the Coach K retirement tour.  And just like their final home game ended in disappointment with an upset loss to North Carolina, their season is going to end in similar fashion with a loss to Texas Tech in the Sweet 16.

I trust Texas Tech's defense much more than that of Duke.  Texas Tech ranks 1st in the country in adjusted defense and forces you to play their game.  The Blue Devils don't have the experience or the toughness to match their intensity.  Defense has been Duke's weakness this season.  The Blue Devils have allowed 76 or more points in five of their last six games overall.  To compare, Texas Tech has only allowed more than 74 points once the ENTIRE season.

Texas Tech is 7-1 ATS vs. top caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game this season.  The Blue Devils are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Red Raiders are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Duke is 1-7 ATS in its last eight NCAA Tournament games.  Coach K is 0-5 all-time in NCAA Tournament games on the West Coast.  Bet Texas Tech Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bulls/Pelicans OVER 225

The Chicago Bulls are coming off one of their worst offensive performances of the season.  They got 92 shots up but scored just 98 points on 42.4% shooting against the Bucks.  This total has been set too low based off that result and there's value with the OVER tonight.

The Bulls have not been playing well defensively, allowing 125 or more points in three of their last four games.  They face a Pelicans team that is clicking offensively, scoring 114 or more points in 13 of their last 17 games overall.  The Pelicans have also allowed 131 or more points in four of their last nine games.  The Pelicans rank 20th in defensive efficiency this season while the Bulls rank 21st.

These teams tend to play in shootouts when they get together.  Indeed, the OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings with combined scores of 231 or more points in all six meetings with none of them going to overtime.  They have averaged a whopping 242.8 combined points per game in those six meetings, which is roughly 18 points more than tonight's posted total of 225.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Sweet 16 Total DOMINATOR on Arkansas/Gonzaga UNDER 156

The books have set the bar too high in this game between Arkansas and Gonzaga.  I expect it to be much more of a defensive struggle than this 156-point total would indicate.  Yes, both teams prefer to play up-tempo, but both teams also really get after it defensively.

Indeed, Gonzaga ranks 9th in the country in adjusted defense.  Arkansas ranks 14th in the country in adjusted defense, which is a big reason the Razorbacks have gone on such a huge run in the second half of the season.  They have done it with defense, not offense.

The Razorbacks have gone 17-3 in their last 20 games overall.  They have combined for 156 or fewer points with their opponents in 19 of those 20 games, making for a 19-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 156-point totals.  That includes their ugly 53-48 win over New Mexico State last round for just 101 combined points.  I like that both teams have had nearly a week to prepare for one another, which is going to favor defense over offense.

Mark Few is 11-1 UNDER after a game where they forced 5 or fewer turnovers as the coach of Gonzaga.  Plays on the UNDER on neutral court teams where the total is 150 to 159.5 in March games are 212-132 (61.6%) over the last five seasons.  Plays on the UNDER on neutral court teams where the total is 150 to 159.5 (Gonzaga) - a very good defensive team allowing 39% or less on the season are 182-117 (60.9%) since 1997.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

25* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Minnesota Timberwolves ML +110

Nobody is playing better than the Minnesota Timberwolves right now.  They are 10-2 SU & 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They sit in 7th place in the West with an excellent chance to move into the Top 6 and avoid the play-in round as the season nears a close.  They are stepping up when these games matter most.

Games do not matter for the Phoenix Suns right now.  They have already locked up the top seed in the Western Conference and basically the top seed in the playoffs overall.  I question their motivation the rest of the way.  They needed OT to beat the Kings last time out, and I don't think they'll give the kind of effort it's going to take to beat a motivated Timberwolves team on the road tonight.

Plus, the Suns are short-handed right now playing without two of their best player in Chris Paul and Cameron Johnson.  They've been able to beat some overmatched teams without these two, but they aren't going to be able to beat a team the caliber of the Timberwolves without them.

Minnesota is 17-4 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  The Timberwolves are 11-0 ATS in home games with a total of 230 or higher this season.  Minnesota is 20-8-1 ATS in its last 29 home games, including 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six home games with all six wins coming by 14 points or more.  Bet the Timberwolves on the Money Line Wednesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Detroit Pistons +4.5

The Detroit Pistons continue to battle.  They have gone 7-8 SU & 14-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall with all eight losses coming by 11 points or fewer, so they have been competitive in every game.  They get Jerami Grant back from injury tonight and have a great chance to upset the Atlanta Hawks.

This is a terrible spot for the Hawks.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 117-111 win in New York last night.  They needed a double-digit 4th quarter comeback to win that game, so they had to expend max energy.  The Hawks will also be playing their 7th game in 11 days and won't have anything left in the tank for the Pistons tonight.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU in the last five meetings.  Detroit is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three home meetings with Atlanta including upset victories as 8-point dogs and 4.5-point dogs in the last two.

The Hawks are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games following a win.  The Pistons are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games when their opponent scored 100 or more points in their previous game.  Take the Pistons Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets -7

The New York Knicks just suffered a devastating loss to the Atlanta Hawks last night in which they blew a double-digit 4th quarter lead.  Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They have essentially been eliminated from playoff contention with that defeat, and they won't have much left in the tank for the Hornets tonight.

The Knicks are likely to be without Julius Randle again tonight.  They take on a red hot Hornets team that is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with four wins by double-digits.  Charlotte will use its up-tempo style to take advantage of the tired legs of the Knicks.  The Hornets rank 4th in the NBA in pace and have a lot to play for right now, so motivation is on their side as well.

Charlotte has owned New York in two meetings this season.  They won 104-96 at home and 97-87 on the road.  Charlotte is 4-0 ATS in its last four home meetings with New York.  The Hornets are rested right now and are 15-6 ATS when playing 6 or fewer games in 14 days this season.  The Knicks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss.  Roll with the Hornets Wednesday.

15* Clippers/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +7

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Los Angeles Clippers.  They have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall with a 3-point loss to Toronto and an OT loss at Cleveland while also getting blown out at Utah last time out.  Now the Clippers will be rested and refocused coming in on three days' rest having last played on Friday.

Look for a big effort from the Clippers, and it should be good enough to stay within this 7-point spread of the struggling Denver Nuggets.  The Nuggets are just 2-4 SU in their last six games overall and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They are coming off a 20-point home loss to Boston.  They are a tired team right now playing their 10th game in 17 days, so it's easy to see why they have been struggling.

This has been a closely-contested series in recent meetings.  Each of the last last five meetings have been decided by 7 points or less, and all three meetings this season were decided by 3 points or fewer.  Given that head-to-head history, there's clearly value on the Clippers tonight, especially coming in on three days' rest.

The Clippers are 23-6-1 ATS in their last 30 games playing on three or more days' rest.  The Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  Denver is 1-8 ATS in home games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or better this season.  Take the Clippers Tuesday.

15* Vanderbilt/Xavier NIT ANNIHILATOR on Vanderbilt +2.5

The Vanderbilt Commodores are happy to be playing in the NIT with a 19-16 record this season.  They are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch in going 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  That includes upset wins over Ole Miss and Alabama and only a 6-point loss to a very good Kentucky team in the SEC Tournament.  They handled their business against Dayton and Belmont in the first two rounds of the NIT.

Xavier is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine games overall with four losses by double-digits and an upset loss to Butler in the Big East Tournament.  They survived Cleveland State by 4 as 11-point favorites and then beat Florida thanks to the Gators shooting just 32.8% from the field.  They won't be so fortunate against Vanderbilt, the best team they have faced in the NIT thus far.  They may not have their best player in Paul Scruggs (11.9 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 4.0 APG), who suffered a knee injury against Florida and is questionable.

Vanderbilt is 6-1 ATS in all tournament games this season.  The Commodores are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Vanderbilt is 33-16-4 ATS in its last 53 games overall.  Vanderbilt is 10-1 ATS in road games vs. teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Commodores are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Vanderbilt is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 27 road games overall.  The Musketeers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  Xavier is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 home games.  Roll with Vanderbilt Tuesday.

20* Bulls/Bucks NBA No-Brainer on Chicago +7.5

I cashed the Bulls -3 over the Raptors last night and I'm back on them again tonight against the Bucks.  They are as healthy as they have been basically all season and a dangerous team moving forward.  I'm not concerned they are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back because of this health and the fact that they had two days off prior to that 113-99 win over the Raptors.

The Bucks are the team with injury concerns.  They do get Giannis Antetokounmpo back from a knee injury tonight, but they will be without their second-best player in Khris Middleton tonight due to a wrist injury.  They should not be 7.5-point favorites over the Bulls without Middleton.

Each of the last three meetings between Chicago and Milwaukee have been decided by 6 points or less and have come down to the wire.  The Bulls have lost both meetings this season by 4 as 11-point road dogs and by 6 as 5-point home dogs.  They want some revenge here in their third meeting with their hated rivals.

Milwaukee is 2-11 ATS in home games following a non-conference game this season.  The Bucks are 1-11 ATS when playing against a team that wins between 51% and 60% of their games this season.  Chicago is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 trips to Milwaukee.  Bet the Bulls Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Minnesota Timberwolves +3.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are playing as well as any team in the NBA right now.  They are 10-1 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall with nine wins by 9 points or more.  Teams haven't even been competitive with them.

Now the Timberwolves find themselves as underdogs to the Dallas Mavericks.  This is a rested Timberwolves team that will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  They are almost fully healthy with the exception of Jaden McDaniels, and they are playing with a ton of chemistry right now.

The Mavericks are going the other way.  They are coming off two straight blowout road loss to Philadelphia by 10 and Charlotte by 21.  Now they return home after a five-game road trip, and I always like fading teams in that first home game back from an extended road trip because there are distractions they have to deal with at home.  Roll with the Timberwolves Monday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Bulls -3

I love the spot for the Chicago Bulls tonight.  They are highly motivated for a victory coming off three straight road losses at Sacramento, Utah and Phoenix.  Now they are back home where they are 25-10 SU & 23-12 ATS this season.

The Bulls also come in rested and ready to go on two days' rest.  They are as healthy as they have been in a long time with the only player they are missing being Lonzo Ball.  They are expected to get Patrick Williams back from injury today and will be a force moving forward in the East.

This is a terrible spot for the Raptors, while will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back off an upset win in Philadelphia last night.  It will also be the 7th game in 11 days for the Raptors, who simply cannot have much left in the tank for the Bulls tonight.  Expect Chicago to run them out of the building.

Chicago is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games following two straight games where they allowed a shooting percentage of 50% or higher.  The Bulls are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games as home favorites.  Chicago is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 meetings with Toronto, including 4-0 ATS in its last four home meetings.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons -7.5

The Detroit Pistons have made me more money than any team in the NBA over the past month and it's not close.  I'm going to continue to ride them today.  The Pistons are 14-0 ATS in their last 13 games overall as long as you bet them early in their 4-point loss to the Clippers as closing 3.5-point dogs, which we did.

The Pistons come in rested having yesterday off and take on a tired Portland Trail Blazers team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 98-129 loss in Indiana last night in which they got blown out by 19 in the 4th quarter.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Pistons tonight.

The Blazers are just 1-10 SU in their last 11 games overall with nine losses by 9 points or more, so they have rarely been competitive.  It's easy to see why considering they are so short-handed right now with six players out and two questionable, plus they traded away CJ McCollum, Norman Powell and Robert Covington.  This is one of the worst rosters in the NBA right now.  Take the Pistons Monday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Miami +7.5

The Miami Hurricanes have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season.  They did their best work away from home this season going 10-2 SU & 10-2 ATS in true road games, and 14-5 SU & 13-6 ATS in all games away from home. 

Miami upset the likes of Duke 76-74 as 15-point road dogs, UNC 85-57 as 2.5-point home dogs, VA Tech 78-75 as 5-point road dogs, Wake Forest 76-72 as 6.5-point road dogs and Syracuse 75-72 as 1.5-point road dogs.  They also took Duke to the wire again in the ACC Tournament, only losing 76-80 as 8.5-point dogs.  Then they upset USC in the opening round as 2-point dogs.

The Hurricanes are 18th in adjusted offense and will be a matchup nightmare for the Trojans.  They have five shooters on the floor at all times including big man Sam Wardenburg, who shoots 43.4% from 3 and will force Walker Kessler away from the basket on defense.  All five starters for the Hurricanes shoot at least 31% from 3-point range.

Auburn has been grossly overvalued down the stretch in going just 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The Tigers should not be laying 7.5 points to the Hurricanes today.  Miami is 23-8-1 ATS in its last 32 games as an underdog, including 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Hurricanes are 6-1 ATS in their last seven neutral site games as underdogs.  Auburn is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a win.  This one will go down to the wire tonight folks.  Roll with Miami Sunday.

15* Iowa State/Wisconsin CBB No-Brainer on Iowa State +5

It has been a bad look for the Wisconsin Badgers in their last three games.  They lost outright to Nebraska as 13.5-point favorites, lost outright to Michigan State as 3.5-point favorites and needed a late surge to put away Colgate 67-60 as 7.5-point favorites, failing to cover.

The Badgers have been one of the luckiest teams in the country this season winning almost all of their close games, so their record is inflated.  They actually rank 7th in KenPom's luck factor, and he makes them less than a 1-point favorite over Iowa State on a neutral.  I agree with that number and think there's value with the Cyclones here.

Iowa State struggles against explosive offensive teams with athletic big men.  That's not Wisconsin.  The Badgers rely on defense and play at one of the slowest tempos in the country.  They are very similar to LSU, which Iowa State upset 59-54.  This is going to be another ugly, low-scoring defensive battle where points are at a premium.  I always like siding with the dog in this spot.

Iowa State is a perfect 14-0 SU in non-conference games this season with upset wins over Xavier, Memphis, Creighton, Iowa and LSU.  The Cyclones are 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games as underdogs.  The Badgers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine neutral site games as favorites.  Bet Iowa State Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Thunder/Magic OVER 225

The Orlando Magic clearly aren't concerned with playing defense right now.  They have seen four straight games with 228 or more combined points.  Their last two were very concerning as they lost 108-150 to Brooklyn for 258 combined points and 120-134 to Detroit for 254 combined points.

The Thunder are also not concerned with playing defense right now.  Indeed, they have allowed 116 or more points in eight consecutive games.  In fact, Oklahoma City has given up 120 or more points in 10 of their last 12 games.

The OVER is 12-1-1 in Thunder last 14 games overall.  The OVER is 3-0 in Magic last three games overall.  The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Orlando.  Don't expect much defense to be played in this contest, either.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Grizzlies/Rockets OVER 235

The Houston Rockets are a great OVER team.  They rank 2nd in the NBA in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency.  The Memphis Grizzlies will oblige them in an up-tempo game as they rank 3rd in the NBA in pace and 6th in offensive efficiency.

These teams just played on March 6th with Houston pulling the 123-112 upset as 10.5-point home underdogs and 235 combined points.  Keep in mind Memphis only shot 5-of-26 (19.2%) from 3-point range in that game and that's not going to happen again.  Both teams shot poorly from the FT line as well, so they should easily top 235 combined points in the rematch.

Houston is 11-2 OVER in its last 13 games after allowing 120 or more points in three consecutive games.  The OVER is 6-1 in Grizzlies last seven road games vs. a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 17-8-1 in Rockets last 26 games as home underdogs.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Vanderbilt -1.5

The Vanderbilt Commodores are happy to be playing in the NIT with a 18-16 record this season.  They are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch in going 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  That includes upset wins over Ole Miss and Alabama and only a 6-point loss to a very good Kentucky team in the SEC Tournament.

Dayton has some key injuries that I don't think they'll be able to overcome here on the road against an underrated team from the SEC.  The Commodores are fully healthy and will have a big home-court advantage here as the fans are excited to see this team in the postseason.  I watched them handle Belmont last round and bet on them, and I'm backing them here again as a short home favorite.

Vanderbilt is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after scoring 80 points or more.  The Commodores are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after allowing 5 or fewer offensive rebounds in their previous game.  Vanderbilt is 6-0 ATS in all tournament games this season.  The Commodores are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Vanderbilt is 33-15-4 ATS in its last 52 games overall.  Roll with Vanderbilt Sunday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Florida/Xavier UNDER 145

This total has been set way too high for two teams that like to slow it down.  Florida ranks 284th in adjusted tempo while Xavier ranks 105th.  The Musketeers struggle to get easy buckets on offense as do the Gators.

Xavier games have averaged just 143.1 combined points per game including OT this season while Florida games have averaged just 137.3 points per game including OT.  Those numbers alone show that there is value with the UNDER 145 today.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Houston/Illinois CBB Early ANNIHILATOR on Houston -4.5

The Houston Cougars are a legit national title contender.  They are consistently undervalued in the NCAA Tournament.  The Cougars have gone 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall and won the AAC Tournament by winning all three games by double-digits.  Then they beat a very good mid-major team in UAB by 14.

Illinois was fortunate to even advance to face Houston.  They only led for 25 seconds against UT-Chattanooga and managed to pull out the 54-53 victory.  They won't be so fortunate against one of the best teams in the country here in Houston.  

The Fighting Illini are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall and have been consistently overvalued.  They don't have the guards to match these elite Houston guards.  The Cougars have the big men inside to stifle Kofi Cockburn.  So the difference in this game is Houston is going to dominate Illinois on the perimeter.

Houston is 7-1 ATS in neutral court games this season and 24-9 ATS in its lsat 33 neutral site games.  The Cougars are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Fighting Illini are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Illinois is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 Sunday games.  Bet Houston Sunday.

20* Memphis/Gonzaga CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Memphis +10.5

Gonzaga got a tough draw having to face this red-hot Memphis team in the Round of 32.  The Bulldogs are legitimately on upset alert because the Tigers are showing down the stretch how good they can be when they play up to their talent potential.

Memphis is 13-2 SU & 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games overall with its only losses coming to Houston and SMU.  Note that Memphis also upset Houston twice during the regular season before losing in the AAC Championship Game to the Cougars, which is too be expected.  They also avenged a loss to SMU with a win over the Mustangs in the conference tournament.  Then they made easy work of Boise State in the opening round leading by double-digits throughout.

Gonzaga actually trailed Georgia State with 13 minutes to go before going on a crazy run to make the final score look like a blowout when it was really a competitive game.  The Bulldogs failed to cover the spread and are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  I just don't think this Gonzaga team is nearly as dominant as last year's version that made it to the National Championship Game.

Memphis has the athletes that are going to give the slower Bulldogs problems.  Jalen Duren has the size inside that will make life way more difficult on Gonzaga big men Timme and Holmgren.  Things won't come as easy for them as they are used to due to the size and athleticism of Memphis as a whole.

The Tigers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as underdogs.  Memphis is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 neutral site games and remember, they won the NIT last year so they have that experience that has helped them this postseason.  The Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Memphis is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after three straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or fewer turnovers.  Take Memphis Saturday.

25* NIT GAME OF THE YEAR on Northern Iowa +6

Northern Iowa is a veteran team loaded with seniors that returned all five starters from last season.  They were disappointed they didn't make the NCAA Tournament, but they are putting all their chips in one basket to try and win that NIT.

That was evident in their 80-68 road win at St. Louis as 3.5-point underdogs in the opener.  St. Louis has one of the best home-court advantages in the country, so that win was no small feat.  Now they are catching 6 points at BYU and I don't think BYU is any better than St. Louis.

Northern Iowa is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games overall and playing its best basketball of the season down the stretch.  BYU is disappointed to be playing in the NIT after choking down the stretch, going 6-6 SU in its last 12 games overall with all six wins coming as a favorite of 7 points or more, including five as double-digit favorites in games they were supposed to win.  They were also upset outright three times as favorites.

The Panthers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  Northern Iowa is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as a road underdog.  The Cougars are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as favorites.  BYU is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games overall.  Bet Northern Iowa Saturday.

15* St. Peter's/Murray State CBB No-Brainer on Murray State -8

The Murray State Racers are 31-2 this season with their only losses coming to Auburn and East Tennessee State in the non-conference.  They were competitive at Auburn, too.  They also upset Memphis and Belmont on the road in the non-conference and were dominant all season with a perfect conference record.

Look for the Racers to make easy work of a St. Peter's team that is coming off a historic upset over Kentucky on Thursday.  It's very common for teams that pull a huge upset in the first round to fall flat in the second round.  I think that will be the case for the Peacocks here.  Murray State is a legitimate Final 4 contender, while St. Peter's is a one-hit wonder.

It was a bad look for the Peacocks in the non-conference as they lost to Stony Brook, Siena, St. Francis-NY, St. John's by 21 and Providence by 14.  Keep in mind Kentucky led by 8 with just a couple minutes left before falling in OT.  And Murray State led by 9 over San Francisco with three minutes left before foul trouble and injuries had the Dons making the comeback to force OT.  But Murray State is back to full strength for this game as they got lucky in the injury department coming out of that game unscathed.

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (St. Peter's) - after four or more consecutive wins, when seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA Tournament are 65-27 (70.7%) ATS since 1997.  Murray State is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a win by 6 points or less.  The Racers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Murray State Saturday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE MONTH on Detroit Pistons +7.5

The Detroit Pistons are the single most underrated team in the NBA right now.  They have gone 12-1 ATS or 13-0 ATS in their last 13 games overall depending on what line you got on them in their 4-point loss to the Clippers as 3.5-point closing underdogs.  We cashed in on them +4.5.

I'm going to continue backing this team that has made me so much money over the past month.  They are now catching 7.5 points against the Cleveland Cavaliers and have been underdogs in 21 consecutive games now, so oddsmakers continue to miss-price them.  They have pulled outright upsets in seven of their last 13 games during this streak.

The Pistons even won 134-120 in Orlando last time out without their two best players in Jerami Grant and Cade Cunningham, flexing their depth.  But now Grant and Cunningham are both expected back tonight.  They'll take on a tired Cleveland team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 119-116 (OT) comeback win over Denver last night.  

They will also be playing 6th game in 9 days.  Four of their five starters played at least 37 minutes last night, and they are short-handed as it is playing without Collin Sexton, Jarrett Allen, Rajon Rondo and Dean Wade.  It's a tall task to ask the Cavaliers to win by 8-plus points to beat us given the spot.  Bet the Pistons Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Charlotte Hornets ML +105

The Dallas Mavericks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, their 3rd road game in 4 days and their 5th consecutive road games today.  They should not be favored on the road over the Charlotte Hornets Saturday in a game I fully expect the home team to win outright.

They face a Hornets team playing some of their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with three consecutive wins by double-digits.  They beat the Pelicans by 22 on the road, the Thunder by 18 on the road and the Hawks by 10 at home.  Now they come in rested and ready to go playing on two days' rest and just their 3rd game in 8 days.

Charlotte is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games when playing on two days' rest.  The Hornets are 16-6 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days this season.  Roll with the Hornets on the Money Line Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas -11.5

The Kansas Jayhawks are playing up to their potential now.  They have gone 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They won the Big 12 Tournament and then blasted Texas Southern 83-56 in the opening round.  Now they'll make easy work of the Creighton Bluejays.

Give Creighton credit for going 10-3 SU & 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall to play their way into the NCAA Tournament.  They even lost starting PG Ryan Nembhard a few games ago and played well without him.  They overcame a 9-point deficit in the final two minutes to beat San Diego State in overtime in the opening round.

Unfortunately for the Bluejays, that OT win came at another cost.  They lost their best big man in Ryan Kalkbrenner (12.7 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 2.7 BPG) in the closing minutes of that SDSU game to a season-ending injury.  He led the team with 16.0 PPG, 9.0 RPG and 2.3 BPG on 72.7% shooting in four postseason games and it's a huge blow.  Kansas is going to get whatever it wants in the pain against the Bluejays without Kalbrenner as a rim protector, and they are going to be much easier to defend without him as well.

Plays on neutral court teams (Kansas) - an explosive offensive team averaging 76 PPG or more against an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15-plus games, after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at halftime are 47-19 (71.2%) ATS since 1997.  The Jayhawks are going to run the short-handed Bluejays out of the building today.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

15* UNC/Baylor CBB Early ANNIHILATOR on North Carolina +6

The North Carolina Tar Heels have saved their best basketball for last.  They are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with their lone loss coming to ACC champion Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament.  That includes a 94-81 upset win at Duke as 11-point underdogs and a 95-63 blowout win over Marquette in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament.

Baylor is nowhere near as good as they were last year when they won the NCAA Tournament.  I'm expecting an early exit from them, and it may just come here against the Tar Heels.  They are still without LJ Cryer (13.5 PPG) and Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua (8.4 PPG, 6.8 RPG) and these losses are going to prove too tough to overcome.

The Bears have been overvalued for over a month going just 5-8 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They barely beat Iowa State at home in their regular season finale and then went on to get upset by Oklahoma in their first game of the Big 12 Tournament.  They did crush a bad Norfolk State team in the opening round, but that has them overvalued here.

The Tar Heels are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  North Carolina is 7-1 ATS after two straight games making 78% of its free throws or better this season.  Roll with North Carolina Saturday.

20* Colgate/Wisconsin CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Wisconsin -7.5

I cashed in Providence yesterday over South Dakota State as the Jackrabbits were the single most popular upset pick in the tournament.  Providence was grossly underrated all season and continued to be as only 2-point favorites over SDSU in the opening round.  Well, like most think Providence is a lucky team, most also think Wisconsin is a lucky team.

The Badgers won the Big Ten regular season title thanks to winning almost all of their close games.  That's the same route Providence took by winning almost all their close games.  I think it has the Badgers undervalued as only 7.5-point favorites over Colgate in the Round of 64.  Colgate is a very popular upset pick here.

This will essentially be a home game for the Badgers being played in Milwaukee, WI which I think is getting overlooked.  I was not impressed with Colgate in the non-conference as they had losses to NC Statel, Harvard, Northeastern, Pittsburgh and Lehigh by single-digits and St. John's, Monmouth, Vermont, Niagara and Cornell by double-digits.  

They did most of their damage against the weak Patriot League.  They played the 339th-ranked schedule in the country while Wisconsin played the 19th.  Colgate ranks just 203rd in the country in adjusted defense and it's hard to trust a single-digit underdog that defends that poorly to keep it close against a top-notch program like Wisconsin.

Colgate is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 non-conference road games.  Wisconsin is 7-1 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 16 or more assists per game this season.  The Badgers are 15-7-2 ATS in their last 24 NCAA Tournament games.  Take Wisconsin Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Clippers +5.5

The Utah Jazz are in a world of hurt right now playing without their top two scorers tonight in Donovan Mitchell (25.7 PPG, 5.5 APG) and Bojan Bogdanovic (18.1 PPG).  They should not even be favored over the Clippers tonight without these two, let alone 5.5-point favorites.

The Clippers have been undervalued all season as they have stepped up in the absence of Leonard and George and managed to put together a .500 season with a great chance to make the playoffs down the stretch.  Off an OT loss to Cleveland and a 3-point loss to Toronto, the Clippers will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.

They should win this game outright against a tired Utah Jazz team that will be playing their 8th game in 13 days.  That fatigue will be even more of a factor for the Jazz tonight considering they are short-handed.

Los Angeles is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 road games following a loss by 6 points or less.  The Clippers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Utah is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following a win.  The Jazz are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Clippers Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pacers/Rockets OVER 240.5

The Indiana Pacers and Houston Rockets have nothing to play for.  There will be no defense played in this game, and it's not like either team plays defense anyway.  These are two of the best OVER teams in the NBA with the way they play.

The Rockets rank 2nd in the NBA in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency.  They have allowed 112 or more points in nine consecutive games coming in.  The OVER is 11-4 in Pacers last 15 games overall so they will happily oblige with the Rockets and get up and down the court.  Indiana ranks 27th in defensive efficiency.

Indiana has allowed 107 or more points in 15 consecutive games.  That includes 119 or more points in 10 of those 15 contests.  But they have been clicking on offense with Brogdon, Haliburton and Hield running the show now.  They have scored 119 or more points in nine of their last 13 games overall.

Indiana is 25-9 OVER in its last 34 games with a total of 230 or higher.  Houston is 8-1 OVER against Central Division opponents this season.  The OVER is 20-6-1 in Pacers last 27 games following a loss by more than 10 points.  Indiana is 48-23-1 OVER in its last 72 games following a loss.  The OVER is 24-11-1 in Rockets last 36 games following a loss.  The OVER is 17-7-1 in Rockets last 25 games as home underdogs.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Chattanooga +8

Illinois has been grossly overvalued all season.  The Fighting Illini are 22-9 SU & 13-18 ATS this season.  They have a great big man in Kofi Cockburn, but their guards are very underwhelming surrounding him.  The Fighting Illini are definitely on upset alert in the Round of 64.

Chattanooga went 27-7 this season and what is most impressive about that is they didn't lose a single game by more than 11 points, so they were competitive in all 34 games.  That 11-point loss came at Murray State, which went 30-2 this season and is one of the most underrated teams in the country.

Chattanooga has a very good big man in Kansas transfer Silvio De Sousa (11.2 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.1 BPG), who can match up with Cockburn inside.  The Mocs are 55th in adjusted offense and 93rd in adjusted defense, so they are balanced.  They also played the 89th-toughest schedule in the country, so they are battle tested.  They upset VCU on the road, which is no small feat.

Illinois is 0-7 ATS vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game after 15-plus games this season.  The Mocs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss but a SU win.  Chattanooga is 22-7-1 ATS in its last 30 games following an ATS loss overall.  The Fighting Illini are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Chattanooga Friday.

20* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Alabama -4

The Alabama Crimson Tide are cheap in the Round of 64 as only 4-point favorites over Notre Dame.  This team was overvalued during the regular season due to what they did last year, going just 11-20-1 ATS.  But that's why we are getting them at a discount because they have been money burners all season.

Alabama played the #1 toughest schedule in the entire country.  So they are battle-tested heading into the NCAA Tournament.  I like the fact that the Crimson Tide play at the 11th-fasted pace in the country, which will have them capitalizing on the tired legs of Notre Dame.

The Fighting Irish will indeed be tired.  They had to go to double-overtime on Wednesday to defeat Rutgers in Dayton, Ohio.  Then they had to take the long flight Wednesday night to San Diego, CA.  They can't possibly have much left in the tank after that effort and that flight, and I expect it to show in their play Friday night.  Look for the Crimson Tide to run them out of the building.

Notre Dame is 2-7 ATS in its last nine neutral site games, including 0-5 ATS in its last five neutral site games as an underdog.  The Fighting Irish are 2-8 ATS in non-conference games this season.  Plays on favorites (Alabama) - after allowing 80 points or more in a conference loss, in March games are 41-16 (71.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Alabama Friday.

15* CBB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Miami +2

The Miami Hurricanes have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season.  They did their best work away from home this season going 10-2 SU & 10-2 ATS in true road games, and 13-5 SU & 12-6 ATS in all games away from home.  This game will be played in Greenville, SC and if anything they will have the home-court advantage over USC, which has to travel across the country.

Miami upset the likes of Duke 76-74 as 15-point road dogs, UNC 85-57 as 2.5-point home dogs, VA Tech 78-75 as 5-point road dogs, Wake Forest 76-72 as 6.5-point road dogs and Syracuse 75-72 as 1.5-point road dogs.  They also took Duke to the wire again in the ACC Tournament, only losing 76-80 as 8.5-point dogs.

The Hurricanes are 17th in adjusted offense and will be a matchup nightmare for the Trojans.  They have five shooters on the floor at all times including big man Sam Wardenburg, who shoots 43.4% from 3 and will force Isaiah Mobley away from the basket on defense.  All five starters for the Hurricanes shoot at least 31% from 3-point range.

USC comes in struggling having gone just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in its last four games overall.  The lone win was a 4-point victory over Washington as 6.5-point favorites in the conference tournament.  They lost to UCLA twice by 10 and 6 points and to Arizona by 20 at home.  I don't trust the Pac-12 much in this tournament outside of Arizona and perhaps UCLA.

The Hurricanes are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games as underdogs, including 9-2 ATS as underdogs this season.  Miami is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following a SU loss.  USC is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite.  The Trojans should not be favored over the Hurricanes in this one.  Roll with Miami Friday.

15* CBB Friday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Purdue -16

Purdue went 11-0 in the non-conference this season with seven wins by 20 points or more.  I fully expect them to crush Yale by more than 16 points in the Round of the 64 in the NCAA Tournament Friday.

Yale has some concerning losses in the non-conference that makes me believe they cannot hang with a team the caliber of Purdue.  The Bulldogs lost 44-80 at Seton Hall, 64-86 at Auburn, 60-87 at St. Mary's and 77-91 to Iona on a neutral.  Purdue is better than all of those teams with the exception of perhaps Auburn.

I just don't think the Bulldogs have the firepower on offense to score with Purdue.  They rank 209th in adjusted offense this season and average just 7 made 3-pointers per game at a 33% clip.  Purdue ranks 3rd in adjusted offense this season and makes 9 3's per game at a 39.1% clip.

Yale is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Boilermakers went 0-9-1 ATS in their final 10 Big Ten games this season which is keeping this number shorter than it should be.  This is actually a great 'buy low' spot on them.  Bet Purdue Friday.

25* Round of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on Murray State -1.5

The Murray State Racers are favored for good reason.  They went 30-2 this season with their only losses coming to Auburn and East Tennessee State in the non-conference.  They were competitive at Auburn, too.  They also upset Memphis and Belmont on the road in the non-conference and were dominant all season with a perfect conference record.

San Francisco shouldn't have even made the NCAA Tournament.  Every time they stepped up in class they lost this season.  Their lone signature win was at home against Davidson early in the season.  They lost to Loyola-Chicago, BYU, Gonzaga (three times by double-digits) and St. Mary's (twice).  They didn't earn hardly any resume building wins.

Now the Dons have to travel across the country to face Murray State in Indianapolis Thursday.  This will essentially be a home game for the Racers as it is less than a five-hour trip from Murray, Kentucky to Indianapolis and you know their fans will be there to support this historic team.  San Francisco will be without 1st-team All-WCC F Yauhen Massalski (13.6 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 2.3 BPG), who played the first 31 games of the season before having to sit out against Gonzaga with a knee injury.

San Francisco is 1-9 ATS vs. very good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game this season.  The Dons are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS win.  The Racers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss.  Bet Murray State Thursday.

20* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Arkansas -4.5

The Arkansas Razorbacks are playing some of the best basketball in the country with the exception of their loss to red-hot Texas A&M in the SEC Championship Game.  The Razorbacks are still 15-3 SU & 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  I think that loss to the Aggies has bettors worried about them, but I'm not one bit.

Arkansas checks all the boxes of a team that can make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.  They are 16th in adjusted defense and 40th in adjusted offense while rank 28th in tempo, so they like to push the pace.  They are a good rebounding team and they take care of the basketball.

There is simply too much love for Vermont in the opening round.  Yes, the Catamounts have won eight straight, but they played in one of the easiest conference in the country.  They have the 332nd-ranked strength of schedule while Arkansas is 44th.  We saw Vermont struggled when they stepped up in class in the non-conference with double-digit losses to both Maryland and Providence and upset losses to UNC-Greensboro and Oakland.  This will be by far their toughest test to date.

The Catamounts are 0-4 ATS in their last four neutral site games.  The Razorbacks are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Vermont is 1-4 ATS in its last five games as an underdog.  Vermont is 0-6 ATS vs. teams that make less than 31% of their 3-pointers this season.  Arkansas is 8-0 ATS vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game after 15-plus games this season.  Take Arkansas Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Indiana +3

The Indiana Hoosiers have saved their best basketball for last.  They are 5-3 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with all three losses coming by 3 points or less to Purdue, Iowa and Rutgers.  So they haven't lost any of their last eight games against some great Big Ten teams by more than 3 points, and here they are catching 3 points against an overrated St. Mary's team from the WCC.

I love the value we are getting with the Hoosiers as underdogs in a game they can win outright.  They have been through the gauntlet and showed their resolve in a 66-58 win over Wyoming in the First Four Tuesday.  I like the fact that they already have a game under their belts, and they also beat Michigan and Illinois in the Big Ten Tournament before losing on a buzzer-beater to Iowa.  They are battle-tested in these win-or-go-home situations.

St. Mary's lost to three NCAA Tournament teams in the non-conference in Wisconsin, Colorado State and San Diego State.  I would argue Indiana is better than all those teams other than Wisconsin, and right now they may be playing better than the Badgers.  Indiana went 9-1 in non-conference play this season with its only loss coming by 2 points in OT at Syracuse.

The Hoosiers are 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Indiana is 6-1 ATS in its last seven neutral site games as underdogs.  St. Mary's is 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine neutral site games.  The Gaels are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games as favorites.  Indiana is 7-0 ATS in tournament games this season.  Take Indiana Thursday.

15* SDSU/Providence CBB Early ANNIHILATOR on Providence -2

The South Dakota State Jackrabbits are the world's most popular underdog this in the opening round to pull the upset.  We'll gladly fade that bias and take the value by backing 4th-seeded Providence as only a 2-point favorite over 13th-seeded South Dakota State in the Round of 64.

Providence has gotten no love all season.  Everyone has called them overrated but they just kept winning games, going 25-5 this season.  And here they basically just have to win to cover as slight 2-point favorites.  Providence gets after it defensively and ranks 32nd in adjusted offense, while the Jackrabbits rank a woeful 223rd in adjusted defense.

South Dakota State feasted on an easy conference and schedule.  While Providence played the 56th-toughest schedule, SDSU played the 249th.  They lost to Alabama by 16, Washington by 11, Idaho by 14 and Missouri State by 12 in the non-conference.  They also had several close wins in conference play.  This will be their toughest test of the season with perhaps the exception of that game against Alabama.

Plays on neutral court teams as a favorite or PK (Providence) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15-plus games, after scoring 65 points or less in two straight games are 30-6 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Providence is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games vs. teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game.  The Friars are 7-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per game this season.  Bet Providence Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Michigan/Colorado State UNDER 137

Two of the slower teams in the country square off when Michigan faces Colorado State in the Round of 64 Thursday.  Colorado State ranks 280th in adjusted tempo while Michigan ranks 239th.  Both are in the Top 100 in adjusted defense as well.

One key here is that Michigan will be without one of its best guards in DaVante' Jones (10.4 PPG, 4.7 APG), who is out with a concussion.  He has been huge for them down the stretch scoring double-digits in seven of his last eight games, including 18 or more in three of his last five.

I like the matchup for Michigan's defense as well.  Hunter Dickinson is their best player and a force inside.  He will be able to slow down Colorado State's best player in David Roddy (17.5 PPG), who will struggle with the length of Dickinson and Diabate inside.

Colorado State is 17-5 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  The Rams are 10-1 UNDER after three straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers this season.  The UNDER is 10-4-1 in Wolverines last 15 NCAA Tournament games.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Rams last seven games overall.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.