15* Heat/Nets Game 4 No-Brainer on Brooklyn +3

The Brooklyn Nets proved that they weren't going to go away quietly by absolutely dominating in Game 3.  They crushed the Miami Heat 104-90 while shooting 52.8% from the field and outrebounding the Heat 50-30 for the game.

I look for them to come back with a ton of confidence in Game 4 off such a brilliant effort in a must-win situation.  This team obviously has the belief now that it can beat the Heat in the playoffs after sweeping them 4-0 during the regular season.

Brooklyn did play well all season at home, going 31-14 inside of the Barclays Center.  Miami has been beatable on the road, posting a 24-20 record away from home.  So, it's no surprise that the home team has won each of the first three meetings in this series.

The Nets are 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Brooklyn is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  The Nets are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home games.  The Heat are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last five meetings in Brooklyn.  Bet the Nets Monday.

20* American League GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Angels +101

Mark Buehrle is having a fine season for the Toronto Blue Jays thus far.  However, there is no way this guy has simply gotten better with age.  He has been lucky in the early going, and now he is overvalued as a result.  The Blue Jays should not be favored over the Angels today.

Buehrle got simply destroyed in two starts against the Angels last year.  He posted an 11.70 ERA in those two starts, giving up 13 earned runs, 22 base runners and a whopping 5 home runs over 10 innings of work.  Buehrle clearly does not like facing this potent Los Angeles lineup.

C.J. Wilson continues to be one of the better pitchers in baseball year in and year out.  The left-hander has gone 4-2 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.133 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 2-1 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.158 WHIP in three road starts.

Los Angeles is 14-1 (+14.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) over the last 2 seasons.  Wilson is 26-7 (+17.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in his career.  Los Angeles is 12-3 in Wilson's last 15 road starts.  Take the Angels Monday.

15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Royals/Mariners OVER 7

The books have set the bar too low in this contest between the Kansas City Royals and Seattle Mariners today.  The first three games in this series have seen 1, 7 and 4 combined runs, respectively, which has provided us some nice value with the OVER in Game 3.

The first three pitching match-ups were also much better than this Game 4 showdown.  This is easily the worst pitching match-up yet with Jeremy Guthrie taking on Roenis Elias.  I wouldn't be surprised if Guthrie gives up seven runs on his own.

Guthrie is 2-2 with a 3.91 ERA through seven starts this season, which are decent numbers.  However, Guthrie is 2-7 with a 4.90 ERA in 12 career starts against Seattle.  Guthrie is 0-2 with an 8.83 ERA in his last three starts against the Mariners, giving up 17 earned runs, 6 homers and 29 base runners in 17 1/3 innings.  He has allowed 5 or more earned runs in four of his past five starts against Seattle.

The OVER is 9-2-2 in Mariners last 13 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  The UNDER is 9-4-1 in Mariners last 14 after allowing two runs or less in their previous game.  The OVER is 5-1-1 in Royals last seven games following a loss.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Thunder/Clippers Game 4 ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -5

The Los Angeles Clippers will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 4 to even this series with the Oklahoma City Thunder.  This is essentially a must-win situation for the Clippers, who cannot afford to fall behind 1-3 if they want to win this series.

Essentially nothing went right for the Clippers in Game 3, yet they still only lost by six points by a final of 112-118.  They were out-shot 55.7% to 45.2% and outrebounded 42-52.  Usually, those two numbers would lead to a blowout for the other team. 

So, considering they can't play any worse, I like their chances of bouncing back with a blowout victory in Game 4.  The Clippers are 37-9 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 10.6 points per game.

Los Angeles is 16-3 ATS revenging a loss vs. opponent as a favorite this season.  The Clippers are 14-2 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this season. Los Angeles is 20-9 ATS off a loss this season.  Bet the Clippers in Game 4 Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday Night BAILOUT on Kansas City Royals -120

I know I've been backing the Kansas City Royals quite a bit lately, but this team is undervalued off to a slow 17-18 start.  I have backed them successfully in three of their last four games, and I look for them to win their fourth game in five days tonight as well.

That's because they will be sending their best starter to the mound in Yordano Ventura, who simply does not get the respect he deserves from oddsmakers.  Ventura is a phenom, going 2-1 with a 2.00 ERA and 1.028 WHIP while striking out 41 batters over 36 innings this season.

He'll be opposed by the washed up Chris Young.  While Young is off to a solid start this season at 2-0 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.246 WHIP, I just know he cannot sustain it.  Ventura allowed one earned run over 5 2/3 innings in his lone career start against Seattle last year.

Plays against home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (SEATTLE) - poor power team (<=0.9 HR's/game) against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season-AL are 70-21 (76.9%) since 1997.

The Royals are 30-10 in their last 40 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Kansas City is 24-9 in its last 33 games as a road favorite.  The Royals are 46-21 in their last 67 games as a favorite.  The Mariners are 1-7 in their last 8 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Roll with the Royals Saturday.

20* Nets/Heat Game 3 No-Brainer on UNDER 189.5

This entire season series has been pretty low scoring between the Brookyn Nets and Miami Heat.  I look for that trend to continue in Game 3 tonight now that these teams are very familiar with each other as this will be their 7th meeting of the season.

I look for Game 3 to take on a similar tone to Game 2, which was defense, defense, defense.  Miami beat Brooklyn 94-82 for 176 combined points.  In fact, each of the last five meetings this season have seen 193 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.

Brooklyn's only chance to beat Miami is to slow it down and play at a snail's pace.  That's what it had success doing in the regular season, and playing at home in Game 3, I look for it to control the tempo in this one.  The Nets rank 25th in the league in pace at 93.7 possessions per game.  Miami ranks 27th in pace at 93.3 possessions per game.

Erik Spoelstra is 33-13 to the UNDER in road games after covering five or six of their last seven against the spread as the coach of Miami.  The UNDER is 12-4 in Heat's last 16 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Nets last six Conference Semifinals games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Yankees +129

Rarely ever will you get the opportunity to back the New York Yankees as an underdog in any interleague game.  This is the simple result of the Milwaukee Brewers being overvalued due to their fast start this season, and that's really starting to show.

The Brewers have dropped three straight and five of their last six to fall to 22-14 on the season.  Meanwhile, the Yankees have won three straight.  I like their chances to make it four in a row with C.C. Sabathia on the mound.  The left-hander is 3-1 with a 4.68 ERA and 1.240 WHIP in four road starts this season.

Sabathia is 1-1 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.064 WHIP in three career starts against Milwaukee.  He'll be opposed by Kyle Lohse, who is 1-4 with a 5.45 ERA and 1.414 WHIP in six career starts against New York.  The Brewers are scoring just 3.1 runs per game at home this year, while the Yankees are scoring 4.9 per game on the road.

Milwaukee is 8-28 (-22.7 Units) against the money line in May games over the last 2 seasons.  Lohse is 2-10 (-9.3 Units) against the money line in May games over the last 3 seasons.  New York is 10-1 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in road games vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. 

The Yankees are 22-6 in their last 28 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.  New York is 13-3 in Sabathia's last 16 interleague starts.  The Brewers are 4-17 in their last 21 interleague games as a favorite.  Take the Yankees Saturday.

15* National League PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Marlins -122

Rarely ever will you get the opportunity to back arguably the best pitcher in baseball at this kind of price, especially against a team like the lowly San Diego Padres.  I'll take advantage tonight and back the red-hot Marlins behind ace Jose Fernandez.

Miami has won five straight and nine of its last 10 games to get to 20-15 on the season.  You have to like its chances of continuing this hot streak behind Fernandez, who won the NL Rookie of the Year in 2013.

Fernandez has picked up right where he left off last year, going 4-1 with a 1.74 ERA and 0.900 WHIP with 65 strikeouts over 46 2/3 innings.  The right-hander is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.545 WHIP in two career starts against San Diego, pitching 14 2/3 shutout innings while striking out 18 and allowing just eight base runners.

Tyson Ross is 4-14 (-10.4 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last three seasons.  The Marlins are 7-0 in their last seven vs. a right-handed starter.  Miami is 9-1 in Fernandez's last 10 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150.  The Padres are 1-7 in Ross' last 8 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.  Take the Marlins Friday.

15* American League PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas City Royals -109

After a brutal 1-0 loss to the Mariners last night, I look for the Kansas City Royals to bounce back in a big way Friday due to the edge they have on the mound.  Hisashi Iwakuma had it going last night for Seattle, but Kansas City's eyes will light up with the opportunity to face tonight's opponent.

The Royals will be up against Brandon Maurer, who has been nothing short of atrocious thus far in 2014.  He has posted a 6.92 ERA and 1.538 WHIP over three starts this year, averaging just 4 1/3 innings per start.  He gave up a combined nine earned runs over 8 2/3 innings in his last two starts.

Former Mariner Jason Vargas is having a solid season, going 2-1 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.252 WHIP in seven starts, including 0-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.100 WHIP in three road starts.  He clearly loves facing his former team.  Vargas went 2-1 with a 2.11 ERA and 1.031 WHIP in three starts against Seattle in 2013.

Seattle is 3-14 (-11.9 Units) against the money line after allowing two runs or less two straight games over the last two seasons.  The Royals are 30-10 in their last 40 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.  The Mariners are 3-9 in Maurer's last 12 starts overall.  Roll with the Royals Friday.

20* Pacers/Wizards Game 3 No-Brainer on Indiana +4.5

Oddsmakers have set the line in this game like this is an evenly-matched series.  Indiana was only a 4 to 4.5-point favorite in Games 1 and 2 at home. Now they're a 4.5-point dog on the road in Game 3.  I believe the Pacers are the better team in this series, and I'll back them in Game 3 because of it.

Roy Hibbert came alive with 28 points and nine rebounds in a Game 2 victory.  Paul George had taken him out on a fishing boat the day prior, and it really showed that he and the team had his back.  Now, with Hibbert back on board, this is going to be a scary team the rest of the way.

Indiana has played its best when it has needed to on the road thus far in the playoffs.  In fact, it took two out of three road games from Atlanta last series, which was a place that the Pacers simply could not win for years.  I believe it gets Game 3 on the road tonight to regain home-court advantage.

The Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.  Randy Wittman is 28-52 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less in all games he has coached.  Bet the Pacers in Game 3 Friday.

15* MLB Thursday Night BAILOUT on Kansas City Royals +121

The Kansas City Royals are putting together a winning streak off a 5-game losing streak this past week.  They have won two in a row and are coming together as a team after an 8-0 victory at San Diego last night.  I look for them to get back to .500 on the season with a third straight win Thursday night.

Left-hander Danny Duffy gets the ball for the Royals looking to improve on his spectacular season to this point.  He has posted a 2.19 ERA and 1.138 WHIP over 12 1/3 innings with 13 strikeouts to boot.

Seattle comes into this game fatigued after playing a double-header against Oakland yesterday.  Hisashi Iwakuma will be making his second start of the season for the Mariners after a poor outing in his first.  He gave up four earned runs over 6 2/3 innings to the lowly Houston Astros on May 3rd.

The Mariners are 9-20 (-21.3 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last two seasons.  The Royals are 6-0 in Duffy's last six road starts.  Kansas City is 8-1 in Duffy's last nine starts overall.  Roll with the Royals Thursday.

20* Nets/Heat Side & Total Parlay on Brooklyn +8/UNDER 192

These plays go hand in hand.  I look for Brooklyn to slow the pace of the game down to make it more to its liking, giving it a better chance to win this all-important Game 2.

Reasons for Brooklyn - The Nets rested their starters in the 4th quarter last game because they were getting blown out.  It was much-needed rest for a team that was coming off a grueling 7-game series against Toronto.  They simply did not come to play in Game 1, while Miami did.

I look for those roles to be reversed tonight.  The Nets will come out with a fire knowing that they cannot afford to fall behind 0-2 if they want to win this series.  This is essentially a must-win game for them, while the Heat could relax a little like they tend to do off a blowout win.

Brooklyn is 10-2 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more this season.  Miami is 12-22 ATS after scoring 100 points or more in two straight games this year.  The Nets are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Brooklyn is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games off a double-digit loss.

Reasons for the Under - There was no defense played in the second half of Game 1 because the Nets were getting blown out and resting their starters. With their starters playing normal minutes tonight, I look for the defensive intensity to be high throughout the game on both sides.

Not counting overtime, each of the last four meetings between these teams have seen 193 or fewer combined points.  That 193-point effort came in Game 1, while the other three saw 191 points or fewer.  As you can see, these teams tend to play in low-scoring games when they get together.

Brooklyn is 19-5 to the UNDER as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Miami.  The Heat are 91-57 to the UNDER off a blowout win by 20 points or more since 1996.  Bet the Nets and the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Nets/Heat Side & Total Parlay on Brooklyn +8/UNDER 192

These plays go hand in hand.  I look for Brooklyn to slow the pace of the game down to make it more to its liking, giving it a better chance to win this all-important Game 2.

Reasons for Brooklyn - The Nets rested their starters in the 4th quarter last game because they were getting blown out.  It was much-needed rest for a team that was coming off a grueling 7-game series against Toronto.  They simply did not come to play in Game 1, while Miami did.

I look for those roles to be reversed tonight.  The Nets will come out with a fire knowing that they cannot afford to fall behind 0-2 if they want to win this series.  This is essentially a must-win game for them, while the Heat could relax a little like they tend to do off a blowout win.

Brooklyn is 10-2 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more this season.  Miami is 12-22 ATS after scoring 100 points or more in two straight games this year.  The Nets are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Brooklyn is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games off a double-digit loss.

Reasons for the Under - There was no defense played in the second half of Game 1 because the Nets were getting blown out and resting their starters. With their starters playing normal minutes tonight, I look for the defensive intensity to be high throughout the game on both sides.

Not counting overtime, each of the last four meetings between these teams have seen 193 or fewer combined points.  That 193-point effort came in Game 1, while the other three saw 191 points or fewer.  As you can see, these teams tend to play in low-scoring games when they get together.

Brooklyn is 19-5 to the UNDER as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Miami.  The Heat are 91-57 to the UNDER off a blowout win by 20 points or more since 1996.  Bet the Nets and the UNDER in this game Thursday.

25* NBA Second Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana Pacers -4.5

The Indiana Pacers represent my strongest play of the second round of the NBA playoffs tonight in Game 2 of their series with the Washington Wizards. After losing Game 1, I fully expect them to bounce back with a blowout victory at home in Game 2.

I'm going to chalk the 96-102 Game 1 loss up to a hangover from the 7-game series against Atlanta, and also tremendous 3-point shooting by Washington.  Indeed, the Wizards went 10-of-16 (62.5%) from 3-point range, and Trevor Ariza was 6-of-6.  That's not going to happen again.

Indiana is 37-9 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 9.6 points per game.  This is one of the toughest places to play in the league, hands down.  Players went up to Roy Hibbert after Game 1 and asked for more from him, and I look for him to respond in Game 2.

Washington is 11-26 ATS in its last 37 games off two or more consecutive road wins.  Indiana is 45-31 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons.  The Pacers are 41-26 ATS following one or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons, including a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  The Wizards 1-12 SU & 4-9 ATS in their last 13 meetings in Indiana.  Bet the Pacers Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City Royals +101

The Kansas City Royals get the nod Wednesday as a small road underdog to the San Diego Padres.  I was on the Royals last night and watched most of their game, including their finish in extra innings with a 3-1 victory.

Off a 5-game losing streak, this team is ready to now start a winning streak.  I liked how fired up the players were with everything that went their way, including the two runs they scored in the 11th inning to ultimately win it.  Despite a relatively slow start to the year, I have not doubt this is still one of the better teams in the league.

Now, Kansas City gives the ball to its ace, and we're getting him as an underdog here.  James Shields just continues to prove he's one of the best in the business.  The right-hander has gone 3-3 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.101 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 3-1 with a 2.18 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in five road starts.

He'll be opposed by Andrew Cashner, who is 0-3 with a 5.00 ERA and 1.444 WHIP in his last three starts for San Diego.  Shields is 7-0 (+8.1 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last two seasons.  The Royals are 14-3 in Shields' last 17 road starts.  Kansas City is 8-1 in Shields' last nine road starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Royals Wednesday.

20* MLB Tuesday Night BAILOUT on Kansas City Royals +107

The Kansas City Royals will be highly motivated for a victory tonight as they look to put an end to a 5-game losing streak.  They let me down last night, blowing a 3-0 lead and then twice blowing save opportunities in the 9th and 12th innings, respectively.  I'll still come back to them tonight.

Not only do I believe that the Royals have the better lineup, which is a no-brainer, they also have the edge on the mound.  Jeremy Guthrie has gone 2-2 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.342 WHIP in six starts this season.  In his lone career start at San Diego, he allowed just one earned run over eight innings of a 7-1 victory.

Robbie Erlin has not been very good for San Diego and has no business being favored here.  The left-hander is 1-4 with a 5.83 ERA and 1.399 WHIP over five starts and one relief appearance this season.  The Padres are hitting just .216 and scoring 2.7 runs per game this year.

The Royals are 11-4 in their last 15 road games vs. a left-handed starter.  Kansas City is 13-5 in Guthrie's last 18 starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game.  Kansas City is 5-1 in Guthrie's last six starts following a team loss int heir previous game.  The Padres are 0-4 in Erlin's last four starts.  Bet the Royals Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -112

Following a season-high seven game losing streak, the Atlanta Braves have fallen to 17-14 on the season.  There's no doubt they will be motivated to put an end to this skid tonight, and I'll back them as a result.  Rarely ever will you get them as this small of a home favorite.

Gavin Floyd makes his season debut for Atlanta.  He previously pitched for the Chicago White Sox in the American League, and just like it does with most pitchers, I believe the switch to the National League will do wonders for this guy.  He'll be up against a Cardinals team that is hitting just .233 and scoring 3.0 runs per game on the road this year.

St. Louis will be sending a weak link in its rotation to the mound tonight.  Left-hander Tyler Lyons gets the ball, and he is 0-2 with a 4.20 ERA and 1.133 WHIP over two starts and two relief appearances in 2014.  Atlanta is 3-1 against left-handed starters this season.  It is hitting .277 and scoring 4.5 runs per game off southpaws.

Lyons is 0-6 with a 6.70 ERA in eight starts since winning at Kansas City last May 28.  The Cardinals are 0-7 in Lyons' last 7 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  The Braves are 76-35 in their last 111 home games.  Atlanta is 72-30 in its last 102 home games with a total set of 7.0-8.5.  Take the Braves Tuesday.

15* Nets/Heat Game 1 ANNIHILATOR on Brooklyn +7.5

The Brooklyn Nets continue to get no respect when facing Miami despite what they did during the regular season.  Everyone wants to just overlook the fact that the Nets went 4-0 against the Heat in the regular year, chalking it up to luck.  I'm not buying it.

Brooklyn set out this offseason to build a contender that could compete with Miami.  I believe it has done that while also proving that with the 4-0 record during the regular season.  I look for Miami to struggle once again in this opener of a seven-game series.

Dwyane Wade may have awoken a sleeping giant with the comments he made leading up to this series.  While Paul Pierce was quick to compliment Lebron James as one of the best players in the game, Wade took a different approach.  On Pierce and KG, Wade said "we thought we buried them in Boston".  That was obviously a shot at their age, and one these two and the team will not take lightly.

Jason Kidd's record against the Heat in recent years is telling.  Going back to the 2007-08 season, his teams have won 16 of the last 21 games he played in against Miami, and now he's 4-0 as a coach against the Heat.  The guy was a coach on the floor as a player, and he clearly knows ways to beat this team.

Brooklyn is 17-3 ATS in road games when playing six or less games in 14 days over the last two seasons.  The Nets are 10-1 ATS in road games off a win over a division rival over the last two years.  Miami is 6-17 ATS in home games off a road win over the last two seasons.  The Nets are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Brooklyn is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Roll with the Nets Tuesday.

15* MLB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas City Royals -115

Yordano Ventura is one of the must underrated starters in the game because he's a young guy that not too many folks know about.  As a result, we've been able to back him at tremendous prices all season, and that continues tonight as a small favorite over the lowly San Diego Padres.

These prices aren't going to last forever because the betting public will eventually catch on.  For now, we'll take advantage.  Ventura is 2-1 with a 1.50 ERA and 1.067 WHIP in five starts this season, striking out 31 batters in 30 innings.  The right-hander is also 2-0 with a 0.60 ERA and 1.067 WHIP in his two road starts.

He'll be opposed by Eric Stults, who is 1-3 with a 5.34 ERA and 1.674 WHIP in six starts this season.  Stults isn't likely to get much run support today as the Padres are hitting just .216 and scoring 2.6 runs per game this season.  Simply put, they have the worst offense in baseball.

Off four straight losses, the Royals are going to be highly motivated for a victory in Game 1 today.  Kansas City is 7-0 (+8.4 Units) against the money line in road games after three straight games where they had 7 or less hits over the last two seasons.  The Royals are 29-9 in their last 38 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.  Take the Royals Monday.

20* Clippers/Thunder Game 1 No-Brainer on Los Angeles +5.5

The Los Angeles Clippers have an excellent chance to steal Game 1 of this series against the Oklahoma City Thunder.  I'll just take the points for some insurance tonight folks.

We saw in the first round several road teams steal Game 1.  It's when the home team is most vulnerable, especially since both teams had just one day to prepare for this after playing in Game 7's on Saturday.

The only game the Clippers played all that poorly in against the Warriors in the opening round was Game 4, which was played on the same day of the Donald Sterling news, so none of the players showed up for it.  Their other two losses came by a combined five points.  I just think that situation has brought this team closer together, and they are going to be a dangerous team throughout the rest of the playoffs because of it.

I believe the Clippers match up very well with the Thunder.  Chris Paul is one of the best defenders in the league and will give Russell Westbrook fits.  Matt Barnes is one of the most underrated wing defenders in the league, and his length will help contain Kevin Durant.

The Thunder are 0-5 ATS in their last five conference semifinals games.  The Clippers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 meetings in Oklahoma City.  Los Angeles is 15-3 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a favorite this season.  Bet the Clippers Monday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -130

I have taken the Braves in the first two games of this series unsuccessfully.  I'll take my medicine, but not without getting out of this series with a victory.  I'm going to back them in Game 3 as they avoid the sweep against the San Francisco Giants.

Atlanta has now lost five straight games heading into this one.  Their motivation is at an all-time high as they'll be looking to put an end to this skid.  I like taking teams that are motivated, especially good teams like the Braves, who are still 17-12 on the season after losing five straight.

Alex Wood is one of the better starters in the game, and he's just in his second year as a pro.  The left-hander has posted a 2.92 ERA and 1.125 WHIP through six starts this season, including a 1.38 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his two home starts.  He'll be up against Madison Bumgarner, who is 2-3 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.723 WHIP in six starts this year.

The Braves are 23-5 in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Atlanta is 25-7 in its last 32 home games following a loss.  The Braves are 72-28 in their last 100 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.  Atlanta is 76-33 in its last 109 home games overall.  The Giants are 6-14 in Bumgarner's last 20 starts vs. NL East opponents.  Bet the Braves Sunday.

25* NBA First Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Brooklyn Nets +3

The Brooklyn Nets staved off elimination in Game 6 with an emphatic 97-83 victory over the Toronto Raptors.  Now, I look for them to capitalize and win this series with a Game 7 victory, but I'll take the points for some added insurance.

Toronto has been one of the best stories in the league this year.  However, I just don't believe this inexperienced team has what it takes to win a winner-take-all Game 7.  Brooklyn, meanwhile, has several veterans that have been through these types of games.

That veteran presence showed up in Game 6 as they came together defensively and limited the Raptors to just 38.5% shooting.  Deron Williams led the way with 23 points, while fellow playoff vets Joe Johnson (17), Kevin Garnett (13) and Paul Pierce (12) all finished in double figures as well.

Brooklyn is 16-3 ATS in road games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days over the last two seasons.  The Nets are 9-1 ATS in road games off a win over a division rival over the last two seasons.  The Raptors are 0-5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Nets are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  These four trends combine for a 35-4 system backing Brooklyn.  Bet the Nets Sunday.

20* Warriors/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +7

I had Los Angeles picked to win this series all along.  However, I do not believe they should be a 7-point favorite over Golden State in Game 7 of this series Saturday night.  I'll take the points as a result.

Golden State is a very profitable 52-34 ATS as a road underdog over the last three seasons.  Amazingly, the Warriors are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games in the first round of the playoffs.  Time and time again they are undervalued, and 2014 has been no exception.  Bet the Warriors Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves -166

Off four consecutive losses, you can be certain that the Atlanta Braves will be playing motivated baseball Saturday.  I like their chances of getting a win with ace Julio Teheran on the mound.

Teheran is 2-1 with a 1.47 ERA and 0.930 WHIP in six starts this season.  He has gone 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 1.154 WHIP in two career starts against San Francisco.

Teheran will be opposed by Ryan Vogelsong, who is washed up.  Vogelsong is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.543 WHIP in five starts this year, and 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.261 WHIP in three career starts against Atlanta.

Atlanta is 13-1 (+14.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 62%) over the last 2 seasons.  The Braves are 18-4 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in home games vs. NL teams allowing 3.8 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.  Atlanta is 13-2 (+10.8 Units) against the money line after having lost 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons.  Take the Braves Saturday.

25* Western Conference Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Rockets/Blazers UNDER 213

Close out games tend to be played at a slower pace due to the value of each possession. We saw that last night as the Hawks and Pacers combined for 183 points and the Thunder and Grizzlies combined for 188.  The Clippers/Warriors game only saw 199 combined points despite a total set of around 210 in most places.

Finally, after a 4-0 OVER run through their first four games of this series, the Rockets and Blazers went UNDER in Game 5 as Houston won 108-98 at home for 206 combined points.  I look for a similar combined point total in Game 6 here tonight as the pace in this series has really slowed down, and that should continue.

Four of the last six meetings between these teams have gone to overtime, which is a complete fluke and has led to the inflation of their totals in this series, including tonight.  Those overtime games make it seem like these teams score a lot more points when they get together than they really do.  Plus, what are the chances of this game going to OT for a 5th time in 7 meetings?

Another reason I'm backing the UNDER is that Houston started Omer Asik and Dwight Howard, two centers, together for the first time all season in Game 5.  It worked as they held Portland to just 98 points and 43.4% shooting while deploying that defensive lineup.  The Rockets are sure to go back to that line-up in Game 6, which will help pave the way for the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* MLB Friday Bounce-Back BLOWOUT on Atlanta Braves -131

The Atlanta Braves will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 1 of this series with the San Francisco Giants.  They just got swept in three games by the Miami Marlins on the road last season, which leaves a sour taste in their mouths.

Mike Minor makes his season debut tonight for the Braves looking to improve upon their starting staff's MLB-leading 2.32 ERA.  The left-hander went 13-9 with a 3.21 ERA last season.  He has never lost to the Giants, going 2-0 with a 2.92 ERA and 0.892 WHIP in four career starts against them.

Minor will be opposed by Tim Lincecum, who is somehow washed up already.  The right-hander went 10-15 with a 5.18 ERA and 1.468 WHIP in 2012, and 10-14 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.315 WHIP in 2013.  Lincecum is 1-1 with a 5.96 ERA and 1.636 WHIP through five starts in 2014.

Atlanta is 9-0 (+9.2 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better over the last two seasons.  The Braves are 12-1 (+10.9 Units) against the money line in home games after scoring 4 runs or less three straight games over the last two seasons.  Atlanta is 9-0 in Minor's last nine starts vs. NL West opponents.  The Braves are 23-3 in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the Braves Friday.

15* Raptors/Nets Game 6 No-Brainer on UNDER 192

I'll back the UNDER in this game between the Toronto Raptors and Brooklyn Nets.  These close out games always seemed to be played at a slower pace because every possession is so important. 

We saw that last night as the Hawks and Pacers combined for 183 points and the Thunder and Grizzlies combined for 188.  The Clippers/Warriors game only saw 199 combined points despite a total set of around 210 in most places.

These teams exploded for 228 combined points in Game 5, which has forced the books to inflate this number.  Brooklyn shot 53.3% from the floor, 47.8% (11-of-23) from 3-point range, and shot 30 free throws.  Toronto shot 48.1% from the floor, 46.2% (12-of-26) from 3-point range, and 36 free throws. 

This game after a 166-point performance in Game 4 in an 87-79 Toronto victory.  Clearly, Game 5 was the aberration in this series.  I look for Game 6 to take on a similar tone to Game 4.  Toronto is 10-1 to the UNDER off a close win by 3 points or less over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Nets last six after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

 20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -132 (Game 2)

Chris Tillman is one of the better starters in the big leagues that not too many folks know about.  He is the ace of this Baltimore Orioles' staff, and he has pitched like it the past two-plus years.  The 26-year-old went 9-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.047 WHIP in 2012, and 16-7 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.221 WHIP in 2013.

Tillman has opened 3-1 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.250 WHIP in five starts in 2014.  He has been virtually untouchable at home, posting a 0.69 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in his two home starts while allowing one earned run in 13 innings.

Pittsburgh's starting staff owns a 3-13 record, including a 1-8 mark with a 4.68 ERA in their last 14 games.  Fill-in starter Brandon Cumpton will be making his second start of the season for Pittsburgh in the second game of today's double-header.  The Orioles have gone 5-1 in their last six interleague home meetings with the Pirates.

Pittsburgh is 0-8 (-8.6 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher who strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season.  The Pirates are 3-13 in their last 16 games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Orioles are 45-16 in their last 51 games following an off day.  Baltimore is 10-4 in Tillman's last 14 home starts.  Bet the Orioles in Game 2 Thursday.

15* Thunder/Grizzlies Game 6 No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -2.5

I look for the Oklahoma City Thunder to win Game 6 tonight on the road to force a Game 7.  They already showed that they could go on the road and win a must-win game when they were trailing 2-1 in Game 4, eventually winning in overtime to even the series at 2-2.

The Thunder have had poor luck in this series in the close games.  Each of the last four games have gone to overtime, and they have managed to lose three of the four.  Unlike the rest of this series, I look for Game 6 to be a blowout in the Thunder's favor given what's at stake with their season on the line.

Oklahoma City is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games off a close loss by 3 points or less.  Memphis is 7-23 ATS off three straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers this season.  The Thunder are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Grizzlies are 4-10-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. win.  Roll with the Thunder in Game 6 Thursday.

20* Pacers/Hawks Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -1

The Indiana Pacers are the better team in this series.  I still believe they are going to prevail in seven games, but it starts with a Game 6 victory in Atlanta.  I look for head coach Frank Vogel to make the proper adjustments to match Atlanta's small line-up that has been killing them.

Indiana went small in the second half of Game 5 and cut a 30-point deficit down to single-digits before eventually losing 97-107.  Of course, everything went right for the Hawks in that game as they shot 50% from the field and 55.6% (15-of-27) from 3-point range.  That won't happen again.

The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a S.U. loss.  The Hawks are 5-22 ATS in their last 27 games playing on 2 days rest.  Atlanta is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  Take the Pacers in Game 6 Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Nets/Raptors UNDER 191

Once again, the books have set the bar too high in this Game 5 between the Brooklyn Nets and Toronto Raptors.  I backed the UNDER in Game 4 with an 87-79 Toronto victory and 166 combined points.  I look for Game 5 to take on a similar defensive tone.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (TORONTO) - with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, in April games are 374-268 (58.3%) since 1996.

The UNDER is 6-2-1 in Nets last nine games when playing on two days' rest.  The UNDER is 5-2 in Raptors last seven conference quarterfinal games.  The UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these teams in Toronto.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Mavericks/Spurs Game 5 No-Brainer on Dallas +6.5

The Dallas Mavericks are showing excellent value as a 6.5-point underdog in Game 5 in what has been one of the most exciting series of the playoffs.  Three of the four games have been decided by 5 points or less and a combined 10 points.

The lone exception was in Game 2 when the Mavericks won 113-92 in an absolute blowout in San Antonio.  Dallas is a perfect 4-0 ATS in this series with its two losses coming by 5 points in Game 1 and 4 points in Game 4.  This team is certainly not backing down from the defending Western Conference champions.

Dallas is 14-2 ATS in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game this season.  The Mavericks are 92-56 ATS in their last 148 road games when playing four or less games in 10 days.  Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The Mavericks are 41-14 ATS in their last 55 games following a loss.  Dallas is 49-19 ATS in its last 68 road games.  Roll with the Mavericks Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Grizzlies/Thunder UNDER 187.5

The books have once again set the bar too high in this Game 5 showdown between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Memphis Grizzlies.  They have done so because each of the last three games have gone to overtime in this series, which has inflated the number.

The chances of a fourth straight OT game are slim to none, and thus this game should finish well UNDER the posted total.  Heck, Game 4 finished with 181 combined points despite overtime in a 92-89 OKC victory.  In fact, three of the first four games in this series have finished with 186 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.

As this series has gone on, points have been even harder to come by.  These teams combined for 170 points at the end of regulation in Game 3, and 170 points again at the end of regulation in Game 4.  These teams are so familiar with one another having played against each other in the playoffs last year, and that familiarity has led to great defense.

Memphis is 20-8 to the UNDER in its last 28 road games.  Oklahoma City is 29-11 to the UNDER in its last 40 games when playing on two days' rest.  The UNDER is 15-7 in Grizzlies last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Intereleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington Nationals -143

I'll gladly fade the worst team in baseball over the last three years tonight.  The Houston Astros have loss more than 100 games in three straight seasons, and they are off to a 9-17 start this season.  They are hitting just .210 and scoring 3.3 runs per game on the year.

They will need a lot of run support for starter Jarred Cosart, who is 1-2 with a 6.12 ERA and 1.320 WHIP in five starts this season.  That isn't likely to happen against left-hander Gio Gonzalez, who is 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.133 WHIP in five starts this year.

Gonzalez has put on a clinic in his two career starts against the Astros.  The southpaw has gone 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.938 WHIP in those two starts, allowing just three earned runs and 15 base runners in 16 innings while striking out 15.

Washington is 44-16 in its last 60 games as a road favorite.  The Nationals are 17-4 in Gonzalez's last 21 starts as a road favorite.  Washington is 17-4 in Gonzalez's last 21 starts during Game 1 of a series.  Houston is 20-73 (-33.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.  Take the Nationals Friday.

20* Mavs/Spurs TNT Monday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 203.5

Off back-to-back overs in this series, the total has been inflated Monday in Game 4 between Dallas and San Antonio.  This is the highest total set of the series, which alone lets you know that there's value with the UNDER.

These teams have shot lights out in the past two games, and that's just unlikely to happen again, especially anything close to what they did in Game 3.  In Game 2, the Mavs won 113-92 and shot 48.9% while the Spurs shot 50.0%.  In Game 3, the Mavs won 109-108 and shot 51.2%, while San Antonio shot 54.3%.

The longer a series goes, the more familiar a team is with its opponent.  That familiarity tends to lead toward low-scoring games.  That's why you'll see the totals in most series get lowered as it goes on.  Again, the fact that this is the highest total of the series thus far assures that we're getting some value here.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Spurs last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Spurs last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is  4-0 in Mavericks last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* MLB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona Diamondbacks -120

The Arizona Diamondbacks are showing solid value as a small home favorite over the Colorado Rockies today.  Given how well their starting pitcher has fared against tonight's opponent, you'll understand why I have no problem laying a little juice to back them.

Indeed, Wade Miley has never suffered a loss to the Rockies.  He has gone a perfect 7-0 with a 2.64 ERA and 1.158 WHIP in nine career starts against them.

He'll be up against Franklin Morales, who is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.364 WHIP in five career starts against Arizona.  Morales is no more than a fill-in starter in this league and wouldn't make most rotations.

Colorado is 4-20 (-13.4 Units) against the money line in road games vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits/start over the last 2 seasons.  The Rockies are 27-57 (-20.2 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons.  Take the Diamondbacks Monday.

20* Nets/Raptors Game 4 No-Brainer on UNDER 192

No analysis today because I'm on vacation.  I'll be back with full analysis by Tuesday.  Thanks, and good luck, Jack!

15* Clippers/Warriors Game 4 Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 210

No analysis today because I'm on vacation.  I'll be back with full analysis by Tuesday.  Thanks, and good luck, Jack!

15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oakland -144

No analysis today because I'm on vacation.  I'll be back with full analysis by Tuesday.  Thanks, and good luck, Jack!

15* Bulls/Wizards Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Chicago +1.5

No analysis today because I'm on vacation.  I'll be back with full analysis by Tuesday.  Thanks, and good luck, Jack!

20* Thunder/Grizzlies Saturday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 189

Simply put, if you were on board with me in Game 3 of this series, you got robbed as did I.  We had the UNDER 191 in Game 3, which was tied 85-85 at the end of regulation for 170 combined points.  We still nearly won in overtime, but ultimately got the loss due to some late free throws in a 98-95 (OT) Memphis victory.

So, two of the first three meetings in this series have gone to overtime.  Two were well UNDER the posted total at the end of regulation with 186 combined points in Game 1 and 170 in Game 3.  Dating back further, 10 of the last 13 meetings between these teams have seen 188 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.

I look for Game 4 to take on a similar path as Game 3, but hopefully this time we don't get burned by overtime.  The chances of three of the first four games going to OT are slim to none, and that's the only way I foresee this Game 4 surpassing this posted total.  This will be a defensive battle between these bitter rivals who are very familiar with one another having played in the playoffs last year.

Memphis is 9-1 to the UNDER off a close win by 3 points or less this season.  The Grizzlies are 45-24 to the UNDER off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 39-15 (72.2%) ATS since 1996.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oakland A's -138

This is a very generous price to get the Oakland A's at against the Houston Astros.  They are 5-0 against the Astros this season, and I see no reason they don't improve to 6-0 with a win Saturday.

My analysis is condensed today because I'm on vacation.  I'll be back with full analysis by Tuesday.  Thanks, and good luck, Jack!

20* Spurs/Mavericks Game 3 No-Brainer on UNDER 202.5

The books have set the bar too high for this Game 3 showdown between the San Antonio Spurs and Dallas Mavericks.  With the series tied 1-1, I look for both teams to be laying it all on the line defensively to try and get a victory in this all-important Game 3.

After combining for just 175 points in Game 1, these teams combined for 205 points in Game 2.  I fully expect Game 3 to fall somewhere in between.  Dallas got a ton of easy points en route to a 112-93 victory in Game 2 thanks to 22 turnovers from San Antonio, which won't happen again. 

The Spurs shot 50.0% from the field while the Mavs shot 48.9% in Game 2, and I don't expect either team to connect at that high of a clip again.  Game 3 is where the defensive adjustments usually come into play, which makes it harder for each team to score.  That's why you have seen my taking a bunch of UNDERS in Game 3's.  The following trend explains why.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DALLAS) - in the first round of the playoffs, in the 3rd game of a playoff series are 42-12 (77.8%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Pacers/Hawks Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -2

It's pretty much do or die for the Indiana Pacers in Game 4.  I fully expect them to rise to the occasion and to re-gain home-court advantage with a victory in Atlanta.  They are the better team, and with their season on the line, I look for them to come together in this one.

The Hawks had huge edges in 3-pointers and free throw shooting in Game 3 that allowed them to win.  They shot 37 free throws compared to 21 for Indiana, clearly getting the majority of the calls throughout the game, which won't happen again.  They also connected on 12 3-pointers for the game. 

Yet, Indiana had a chance to win late.  The Pacers were within a couple points in the 4th quarter despite shooting 37.6% from the field and 25.0% from 3-point range.  Basically, the Pacers couldn't have played a worse game, while the Hawks couldn't have played a whole lot better, or gotten any more breaks to go their way.  The chances of these things happening two games in a row are slim.

Indiana is 30-17 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons.  The Pacers are 39-26 ATS off one or consecutive losses.  Atlanta is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games off a home win.  Roll with the Pacers in Game 4 Saturday.

20* Rockets/Blazers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 216

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between Houston and Portland for Game 3 Friday.  After getting robbed on the UNDER in Game 2 with a total set of 215 points and a final combined score of 217, I have no doubt this Game 3 showdown will be more low-scoring.

Indeed, Game 2 was well on pace to go UNDER until the final few minutes where fouls piled up and neither team missed a free throw.  They combined for 57 points.  It was a 100-93 game with 3 minutes left, giving us 22 points to work with.  That would usually lead to an UNDER 90% of the time, but some bad breaks with fouls in the end led to 24 combined points over the final 3 minutes, which is almost unheard of.

Last night, all three Game 3's should have went UNDER the total.  The Hawks/Pacers game did and so did the Clippers/Warriors contest.  The only reason the Grizzlies/Thunder game went over was due to overtime in a game that was tied 85-85 at the end of regulation, which was 20 points under the posted total of 190.

Yes, I was on that under and a little bitter about it still today, but I can take some consolation in knowing I was on the right side of it, but again had a bad break to take the loss.  Game 3 is where I really like to play the UNDERS because it's where the adjustments have been made after the first two games to where both teams are very familiar with one another.  Familiarity leads to low-scoring games.

I especially like this 'UNDER' in the Rockets/Blazers Game 3 because the first two games have gone over the total, which has kept this line inflated.  Neither game should have went over because the first game went into overtime tied 106-106 at the end of regulation, while Game 2 had that onslaught of points late to get the over by a mere two points.  It would take another miracle for Game 3 to go 'over' as well, and I'll bank on it not happening.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) - in the first round of the playoffs, in the 3rd game of a playoff series are 42-12 (77.8%) since 1996.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oakland A's -1.5 (-117)

The Oakland A's are not going to take the Houston Astros lightly considering they were swept last series by the Texas Rangers.  That was evident in Game 1 of this series as the A's rolled to a 10-1 victory.  I expect a similar beat down in Game 2.

Oakland has been the most underrated team in baseball over the last couple years.  That has been the case again in 2014 as many picked the Rangers and Angels to finish ahead of them.  They are tied with the Rangers for 1st place in the division at 14-8, which includes an 8-2 mark on the road where they are scoring 5.8 runs per game.

Once again, it appears like the Houston Astros are the worst team in baseball.  At 7-16, this team is on pace for a 4th consecutive 100-loss season.  The Astros have lost nine of their last 11 games overall, and seven of those losses have come by two runs or more, which is a big reason why we're backing the A's on the run line in this one.

Jesse Chavez has been brilliant through four starts, going 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 0.923 WHIP while striking out 28 batters in 26 innings.  He beat today's scheduled starter Brad Peacock 4-1 on April 20 just five days ago.  Peacock is 0-2 with a 6.14 ERA and 1.905 WHIP through 14 2/3 innings this season.

Plays against home underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-130 to +110) (HOUSTON) - horrible offensive team - scoring <=3.7 runs/game on the season (AL), after a loss by 6 runs or more are 30-9 (76.9%, +21.1 units) since 1997. 

Houston is 2-11 against the run line (-9.9 Units) vs. AL teams allowing 3.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last two seasons.  Oakland is 28-11 against the run line (+18.0 Units) after a game where they had 6 or more extra base hits over the last three seasons.  The A's are 41-17 against the run line (+26.4 Units) after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last three seasons.  Bet the A's on the Run Line Friday.

15* Bulls/Wizards Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Chicago +3

This is the exact type of game the Chicago Bulls live for.  Everyone has counted them out after losing the first two games of this series at home, and everything except the guys inside that locker room believe this series is over.  This team plays its best when it is counted out.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, Tom Thibodeau deserves Coach of the Year every year with what he has been able to do with this team.  The players take after their head coach, who has absolutely no quit in him.  He'll rally the troops and you'll see the Bulls put forth one of their best efforts of the season in Game 3.

Chicago actually played some of its best basketball on the road this season posting a 21-20 record away from home.  That included a 96-78 road victory in its last trip to Washington on April 5th.  Washington actually owns a worse home record (22-19) than a road record (24-19) on the year.

The Bulls have a lot of playoff experience on this team.  They know a series isn't over until its over.  Washington, meanwhile, is loaded with inexperience in terms of the playoffs.  While that actually worked in the Wizards' favor in the first two games of this series as they didn't know any better, I believe it will work against them here.  They will be content with their 2-0 lead and not be able to match the effort of the desperate Bulls in Game 3.

Thibodeau is 39-22 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite as the coach of Chicago.  Thibodeau is 32-16 ATS off a home loss as the coach of Chicago.  Randy Whitman is 27-51 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less as the coach of Washington.  The Wizards are 11-25 ATS in their last 36 games off two or more consecutive road wins.  Chicago is 91-57 ATS in its last 148 road games when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 51% to 60%.  Take the Bulls Friday.

20* Raptors/Nets Game 3 No-Brainer on UNDER 192

I expect Game 3 to play out similar to Game 1 where the Nets beat the Raptors 94-87 for 181 combined points.  I believe Game 2 was the aberration as these teams combined for 195 points in a 100-95 Toronto victory.

Game 2 was playing out just like Game 1 through three quarters.  They had combined for 40, 44 and 46 points in the first three quarters, respectively.  However, the teams exploded for 65 combined points in the fourth quarter, which made the final score seem like less of a defensive battle than it really was.

Kevin Garnett spoke openly about how Brooklyn's fourth quarter defense was unacceptable as it allowed the Raptors to put up 36 points.  You can bet that the Nets will come back with tremendous intensity defensively in Game 3.  Toronto will also bring it on that end of the floor like it has all season.  The Raptors rank 9th in the league in defensive efficiency.

This has certainly been a half-court series to this point, and I don't expect that to change in Game 3.  Brooklyn ranks 25th in the league in pace at 93.7 possessions per game.  Toronto ranks 23rd in pace at 94.4 possessions per game.  Neither team will look to run much in Game 3, especially with the adjustments that will be made, which will favor both defenses.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Clippers/Warriors TNT Thursday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 215.5

The books are overreacting by raising this total set in Game 3 between the Clippers and Warriors compared to the first two games in this series.  I'll take advantage and back the UNDER in what will be the lowest-scoring game of the series by far.

The defense was a little shoddy in Game 1 as they combined for 214 points with a total set of 211.  They Warriors played no defense in a 98-138 loss in Game 2, content that they had stolen Game 1.  It was such a big blowout that the starters got pulled in the second half and the points kept piling on with no defense being played due to the outcome already being decided.  Game 2's total was set at 212.5 points, and Game 3's is now 215.5.  As you can see, the value is with the UNDER because of it.

You can bet that both teams will be bringing 100% effort defensively in this Game 3.  Golden State wants to make amends for it's embarrassing Game 2 showdown, while Los Angeles wants to regain home-court advantage.  These teams are very familiar with how one another wants to play, which favors the defenses moving forward.  Adjustments will be made, especially considering these teams have had two days' rest to prepare, which again favors defense.

Prior to the first two games of this series, six of the last seven meetings between the Clippers and Warriors had seen 209 or fewer combined points.  I simply believe the first two games of this series were an aberration.  Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA CLIPPERS) - in the first round of the playoffs, in the 3rd game of a playoff series are 40-12 (76.9%) since 1996.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Thunder/Grizzlies TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 191

The books have set the bar too high in Game 3 between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Memphis Grizzlies.  This is the highest they have set the total for any of the first three games in this series.

They have done so following a high-scoring game in Game 2.  However, the only reason that game saw 216 combined points is because it went to overtime.  There were also a ton of fouls at the end of regulation that inflated the final score.  In fact, these teams combined for 65 points in the final period after combing for 40, 49 and 44 points in the first three.  This number has been inflated due to Game 2's final score.

The defensive intensity in Game 3 will be even higher than it was the first two games.  Both teams will be trying to get home-court advantage in the series with a win.  Also, having played twice already, these teams are familiar with one another, which favors the defenses.  They have also had two days off in between Game 2 and Game 3 to prepare, which will benefit the defenses as well with the adjustments that will be made.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games are 33-8 (80.5%) over the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 29-10 in Thunder's last 39 games when playing on two days' rest.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Pacers/Hawks NBA TV Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -2

The Indiana Pacers get the nod Thursday as a small road favorite against the Atlanta Hawks.  They showed me something in Game 2 that I believe will carry over into Game 3.  They got back to playing with a passion in the second half, turning a 48-52 deficit at the break into a a 16-point blowout thanks to a 31-13 third quarter.

Indiana got back to playing defense and playing for one another, which is what got them to Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals last year.  The Pacers held the Hawks to just 33 points after intermission.  I really believe we'll look back to that second half as a turning point for them in the playoffs, and it will carry over into Game 3 tonight.

The fact of the matter is that the Hawks are out-classed here.  They only made the playoffs because the Eastern Conference was down this year as their 38-44 record was good enough to get in.  If Indiana shows up to play, it should beat this team 90% of the time.  There's no question it shows up in Game 3 to try and regain home-court advantage.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANA) - an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 85 points or less are 41-14 (74.5%) ATS since 1996.  The favorite is 26-10-1 ATS in the last 37 meetings.  Bet the Pacers Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Orioles/Blue Jays OVER 9

These teams have lit up the scoreboard in each of their first two games of this series.  They combined for 12 runs in Game 1 and 18 in Game 2, and I look for this high-scoring trend to continue in Game 3 with a couple of below-average starters on the mound.

Bud Norris is 0-2 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.309 WHIP in three starts this season, including 0-2 with a 7.15 ERA and 1.412 WHIP in two road starts.  Drew Hutchinson is 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.451 WHIP in four starts this year, and 0-1 with a 16.22 ERA and 2.703 WHIP in his lone home start.

Toronto is hitting .267 and scoring 5.5 runs per game at home this season.  Baltimore is hitting .295 and scoring 5.7 runs per game on the road this year.  This will be the second match-up between Norris and Hutchinson this season, and while the first was low-scoring on a cold night in Baltimore, I believe this one will be the complete opposite indoors in the Rogers Centre.

Toronto is 10-1 to the OVER in home games after scoring 8 or more runs over the last two seasons.  The Blue Jays are 14-2 to the OVER after a game with a combined score of 15 runs or more over the last two years.  The OVER is 7-0 in Orioles last seven road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The OVER is 29-11-1 in Blue Jays last 41 games as a home favorite.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Blazers/Rockets TNT Wednesday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 215

This total is a complete overreaction from Game 1.  That contest was much more lower-scoring than the final score would indicate.  It was tied 106-106 at the end of regulation for a combined 212 points, which would have been UNDER the 215.5-point total. 

Instead, the combined for another 30 in overtime in a 122-120 Portland victory.  They needed 60 combined points in the fourth quarter just to get to 212 at the end of regulation.  The Blazers used the hack-a-Howard strategy, which got them back in the game. 

While that is concerning heading into Game 2, I'm not that worried about it because head coach Kevin McHale took Howard out after a couple of misses, then put him back in with under two minutes to go.  That way, the Blazers could not intentionally foul him.  I look for McHale to take him out even sooner if they try the same thing again.

This is the playoffs, and while both teams play at a fast pace normally, things slow down a little more in the postseason.  The defensive intensity gets kicked up a notch, which makes it easy to pick apart these high point totals by backing the UNDER.  I liked what I saw from both teams defensively in Game 1, and I look for that intensity to be even more extreme in this all-important Game 2.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 33-7 (82.5%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in in Game 2 Wednesday.

20* AL East GAME OF THE WEEK on Baltimore Orioles +103

The Baltimore Orioles should not be an underdog to the Toronto Blue Jays tonight.  I'm going to back them at this tremendous price as they bounce back from a 3-9 loss to the Blue Jays in Game 1 of this series.

Chris Tillman is one of the most underrated starters in the big leagues.  The right-hander has gone 2-1 with a 1.71 ERA and 1.101 WHIP in four starts this season.  He went 9-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.047 WHIP in 2012, and 16-7 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.221 WHIP in 2013. 

Tillman has posted a 3.42 ERA and 1.098 WHIP in 11 career starts against Toronto, and he has allowed just one earned runs and 10 base runners over 15 innings in his last two starts against the Blue Jays.  It's safe to say that he loves facing this team.

Dustin McGowan is not very good, period.  He is 1-1 with a 4.85 ERA and 1.923 WHIP in three starts this season.  McGowan has gone 1-3 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.736 WHIP in seven career starts against Baltimore, so this is certainly one team he struggles with.

Tillman is 9-1 (+9.5 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last two seasons.  The Orioles are 17-4 in Tillman's last 21 starts with a total set of 9.0-10.5.  Baltimore is 22-8 in Tillman's last 30 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Orioles are 17-7 in Tillman's last 24 road starts.  Take the Orioles Wednesday.

20* Wizards/Bulls TNT Tuesday Night BAILOUT on Chicago -5

After blowing a 13-point lead and losing Game 1 of this series, I look for the resilient Chicago Bulls to bounce back with a Game 2 victory.  This has been a resilient bunch all season with the losses of Derrick Rose and Luol Deng.  They aren't about to pack it in now and give up on this series after losing one game.

Washington is a young team that probably doesn't quite understand needing to go for a team's throat when it is down.  John Wall, Bradley Bill and company won't come back with that killer mentality.  They are satisfied with taking one of the first two games in Chicago, and I look for that to show tonight.  The Bulls will be winning all of the effort plays in this one, which will help them win and cover this 5-point spread.

The Wizards are 10-25 ATS in thier last 35 games off two or more consecutive road wins.  Washington is 102-149 ATS off two or more consecutive wins since 1996.  Chicago is 27-13 ATS off a home loss over the last three years.  The Bulls are 25-15 ATS revenging a loss this season.  Chicago is 12-1 (92%) ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game.  Bet the Bulls in Game 2 Tuesday.

15* Hawks/Pacers TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on Indiana -7

The Indiana Pacers have come too far to let a Game 1 loss affect them.  They have gotten the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, which was their goal coming into the year.  They will use it to their advantage and bounce back with a blowout home victory over Atlanta in Game 2.

Not a whole lot went right for the Pacers in Game 1 as they shot just 42.0% from the field and 69.6% from the free throw line.  A lot went right for Atlanta as it made 11 three-pointers and shot 24-of-29 (82.8%) from the free throw line.  It was the more aggressive team, getting to the line six more times than the Pacers (16-23), but I look for them to have a role reversal in that department.  Indiana will be the more aggressive team in this one.

I have a feeling we may look back to this Game 1 loss as the wake up call the Pacers needed to go on a big run to the Eastern Conference Finals.  The fact of the matter is that this team is still one of the best in the league, while the Hawks only made the playoffs because the East was so down this year.  They got in with a 38-44 record, so they really aren't that good.

Atlanta is 5-21 ATS in its last 26 games when playing on two days' rest.  The Hawks are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The favorites is 25-10-1 ATS in the last 36 meetings in this series.  Take the Pacers in Game 2 Tuesday.

15* AL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas City Royals -101

The Kansas City Royals send ace James Shields to the mound tonight looking to put an end to a 2-game losing streak.  I look for them to bounce back in Game 2 off a 3-4 loss to the Cleveland Indians in Game 1 due to Shields' dominance in this one.

Shields has posted a 2.00 ERA and 0.963 WHIP through four starts this season while striking out 26 batters in 27 innings.  The right-hander sports a 3.84 ERA in 14 career starts against Cleveland.  He is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in his last two starts against the Indians, yielding three earned runs over 14 innings.

Danny Salazar is off to a rough start this season for Cleveland.  He has gone 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA and 1.927 WHIP over three starts, allowing 12 earned runs, 27 base runners and 4 homers over 14 innings.  Salazar has faced the Royals once, yielding four earned runs over six innings for a 6.00 ERA.

Shields is 7-0 (+8.2 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last three seasons. Shields is 11-1 (+9.9 Units) against the money line in road games vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last two seasons. Kansas City is 12-3 in Shields' last 15 road starts overall.  Roll with the Royals Tuesday.

15* AL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Baltimore Orioles +125

The Baltimore Orioles should not be an underdog to the Toronto Blue Jays Sunday.  Both starting pitchers in Miguel Gonzalez (1-1, 6.28 ERA) and R.A. Dickey (1-3, 6.26 ERA) have struggled to open the season, but their head-to-head numbers are the telling story leading into this one.

Gonzalez is 4-2 with a 3.02 ERA and 0.963 WHIP in seven career starts against Toronto.  In his last two starts against the Blue Jays, the right-hander has gone 2-0 with a 0.73 ERA while allowing just one earned runs and nine base runners over 12 1/3 innings.

Dickey has really struggled of late against Baltimore, going 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA in his last three starts.  The knuckleballer has given up 16 earned runs, 5 homers, and 32 base runners over 18 2/3 innings in those three outings against the Orioles, who clearly have him figured out.

Baltimore is 5-1 in its last six games vs. a right-handed start.  The Orioles are 4-0 in their last four vs. a team with a winning record.  The Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last five games as a favorite.  Baltimore is a very profitable 71-64 (+32.1 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last three seasons.  Bet the Orioles Tuesday.

25* NBA Opening Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Warriors/Clippers UNDER 212.5

After a high-scoring affair in Game 1, I look for the defense to be much better in Game 2 and for points to be harder to come by.  It won't take much considering they combined for 214 points in a 109-105 Golden State victory Saturday.

The perception is that the Warriors and Clippers don't play much defense, but that couldn't be further from the truth.  In fact, the Warriors actually rank 3rd in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up 99.9 points per 100 possessions.  The Clippers rank 7th in that same category, yielding 102.1 points per 100 possessions.

These teams did combine for 209 or fewer points in three of their four regular season meetings.  So, if anything, Game 1's 214-point total was the aberration.  Both teams made 10 3-pointers and shot over 40% from distance, which isn't likely to happen again.

The UNDER is 40-18 in Warriors last 58 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 9-4-1 in Clippers last 14 home games.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA CLIPPERS) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 33-7 (82.5%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* MLB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on San Diego Padres +105

The San Diego Padres are showing excellent value as a road underdog to the Milwaukee Brewers with ace Andrew Cashner on the mound.  This guy is one of the most underrated starters in the game, and I look for him to shut down the Brewers tonight.

Cashner went 10-9 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.131 WHIP in his first full season as a starter in 2013.  He has backed it up by going 2-1 with a 1.27 ERA and 0.954 WHIP in three starts in 2014.  That includes a complete game shutout against the Detroit Tigers on April 11.

Milwaukee is overvalued right now due to its 14-5 start to the season.  It will be tired tonight after going 14 innings and winning 3-2 in Pittsburgh Sunday.  It's only human nature to suffer a letdown after a big win like that.  The Brewers are hitting .192 and scoring 2.3 runs/game at home this year.

The Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.  San Diego is 4-0 in its last four games following a loss.  The Padres are 4-0 in thier last four Monday games.  San Diego is 4-0 in Cashner's last four starts during Game 1 of a series.  These four trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the road team.  Take the Padres Monday.

15* Wizards/Bulls Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Washington +4.5

The Wizards finally turned the corner this season. They ended a five-year playoff drought and turned all their promise into production. The front office has eyed the playoffs all season, making big moves to turn this team into a possible contender. The Wizards traded for Marcin Gortat in the preseason to make up for the loss of Emeka Okafor. They traded for Andre Miller, and signed veterans like Al Harrington and Drew Gooden.

However, it has been the emergence of a couple of young superstars that have made the difference. The 23-year-old John Wall (19.3 ppg, 8.8 apg) has turned into a real leader this season while playing in all 82 games. The 20-year-old Beal (17.1 ppg, 40.2% 3-pointers) can fill it up with the best of them. Gortat (13.2 ppg, 9.5 rpg) and Nene (14.2 ppg, 5.5 rpg) have played well inside.

The most overlooked player on the entire team is Trevor Ariza (14.4 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 1.6 aspg, 40.7% 3-pointers), who does a little bit of everything. He will defend the best player on the other team night in and night out, and he has really improved his outside shooting to make him an all-around player. He helped the Wizards win four straight games to close out the season, which had them avoiding Miami in the first round as a potential No. 7 seed.

The Wizards shared the ball very well this season, ranking 7th in the league in assists at 17.7 per game. Their unselfishness helped them finish a respectable 16th in offensive efficiency, averaging 103.3 points per 100 possessions. This is where they have a huge advantage over the sometimes stagnant Bulls, who rank a woeful 27th in offensive efficiency at 99.7 points per 100 possessions. Chicago can go for long stretches without scoring.

This has actually been a favorable match-up for Washington in recent years believe it or not. It not only won two of three meetings this season, but dating back to last year, it has won four of the past six meetings. The Wizards have done so behind a dominant effort defensively. They have held to the Bulls to an average of 88.5 points per game in their last six meetings.

Washington is 8-1 ATS in road games when playing six or less games in 14 days this season.  The Wizards are 27-11 ATS when revenging a home loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons.  Washington is 8-0 ATS in road games after scoring 55 points or more in the first half of two straight games over the last two seasons.  The Wizards are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 road games.  Take the Wizards in Game 1 Sunday.

20* Bobcats/Heat Game 1 No-Brainer on Charlotte +10

The Bobcats were the surprise of the season this year. They made the playoffs while finishing with a winning record for just the second time in franchise history. Steve Clifford deserves Coach of the Year consideration for the job that he has done this season. He took a team that went 21-61 in 2013-13 to a 43-39 club this season, improving them by a whopping 22 victories.

Clifford doesn’t deserve all the credit. Al Jefferson probably should get the most of it with the MVP-caliber season he had. He proved to be an excellent offseason acquisition and was really the only player of any significance that this team added. Jefferson put up 21.8 points and 10.8 rebounds per game as he was a double-double waiting to happen.

Kemba Walker (17.7 ppg, 6.1 apg) also took his game to the next level this season. Gerald Henderson (14.0 ppg) can fill it up, Josh McRoberts (8.5 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 4.3 apg) can do it all, and Gary Neal (11.2 ppg) was a nice pick up before the trade deadline. This is a team that heads into the playoffs with a lot of confidence after going 7-1 over their final eight games of the season as they nearly moved all the way up to the No. 5 seed in the East.

The Bobcats have been a completely different team since they gave up 61 points to James in that loss. Indeed, they have won 16 of their last 22 games overall to clinch a playoff spot. They went 7-1 over the final eight games of the season. Miami, meanwhile, lost five of its last six games heading into the postseason.

The one weakness for the Heat is their post play, which can be suspect at times, especially defensively. That’s why they signed Greg Oden, but he’s not going to play that big of a role for them. Jefferson is averaging 26 points and 13 rebounds over his last 10 games. He should have his way with the Heat in this series, which gives the Bobcats a fighting chance.

Charlotte is 9-1 ATS off two consecutive games as a favorite.  The Bobcats are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  They took Miami to overtime and lost by a single point to them in another game this year, so they are clearly closing the gap in this head-to-head series.  Bet the Bobcats Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Tampa Bay Rays -129

I've backed the Tampa Bay Rays for each of the first three games in this series.  I have had success in two of the three, and for similar reasons.  I expect this to be a turning point in the season for them as they win the series 3-1 and get their year turned around.

After scoring a combined 27 runs over the past two days in wins over the Yankees, the Rays are confident at the plate.  They have also taxed New York's bullpen, which will be getting a lot of use tonight due to Yidal Nuno (14.54 ERA, 2.791 WHIP) getting the ball.

Plays against all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (NY YANKEES) - very bad AL offensive team (<=4.2 runs/game) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA<=3.75), after allowing 8 runs or more are 81-39 (67.5%) over the last five seasons.

The Yankees are 6-20 (-15.1 Units) against the money line after allowing 8 runs or more over the last 2 seasons.  New York is 2-11 (-10.6 Units) against the money line after a loss by 6 runs or more over the last 2 seasons.  Tampa Bay is 21-3 (+17.8 Units) against the money line after a game where they had 6 or more extra base hits over the last 3 seasons.  Roll with the Rays Sunday.

20* Hawks/Pacers Game 1 No-Brainer on Indiana -7.5

The Indiana Pacers are undervalued right now due to their poor finish to the regular season.  They should be an even bigger favorite over the Atlanta Hawks in Game 1.  I'll take advantage and back the Pacers in what I expect to be a double-digit victory by game's end.

Indiana is the best team in the East in my opinion, and while many don't believe it deserves the No. 1 seed because of its finish, the fact of the matter is that it finished with the best record.  This team easily got bored in the second half of the regular season, but the playoffs are a different animal and will have them coming together as a team.

The only reason the Hawks made the playoffs is because the Eastern Conference is so terrible as a whole.  Its 38-44 record was good enough to hold off the lowly New York Knicks for the final spot.  This is a team that went 1-14 over a 15-game stretch this season.  They stand little chance of competing in this series considering their best player, Al Horford, was lost for the season.

The one constant with the Pacers is that they defend, and defense wins in the playoffs. They led the league in defensive efficiency this season, giving up just 96.7 points per 100 possessions. To compare, Atlanta ranked 14th in defensive efficiency, giving up 104.1 points per 100 possessions.

These Indiana players will be chomping at the bit to hit the court after resting down the stretch.  They should have one of their best efforts of the season in Game 1 because of it, while also playing with a chip on their shoulder due to the negative publicity they have received through the media for their struggles over the past month-plus.

The Hawks are 5-21 ATS in their last 26 games playing on 2 days' rest.  Atlanta is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  The favorite it 25-9-1 ATS in the last 35 meetings in this series.  Bet the Pacers in Game 1 Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Tampa Bay Rays -139

I have been on the Rays in every game of this series so far.  I'm going to continue to ride them tonight for a number of the same reasons.  They need the win after losing four of their last five, and the Yankees are overconfident right now after winning five of their last six.

I missed on the Rays in Game 1, but connected on them in Game 2 in a dramatic victory.  They fell behind 4-0 before rallying to win late by a final of 11-5, pouring it on at the end.  The nature of the way they won that game will have them coming into Game 3 with a ton of confidence.

The edge the Rays will have on the mound in this one, just like they have in the past two games, is my biggest reason for backing them.  Chris Archer is one of the best young starters in the game, but he doesn't get the credit he deserves. 

Archer has never lost to the Yankees, going 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA and 0.628 WHIP in three career starts against them.  He has allowed just three earned runs and 15 base runners over 22 innings in those three outings.  Enough said.  Roll with the Rays Saturday.

15* Warriors/Clippers Game 1 Line Mistake on Los Angeles -7

Despite playing without Chris Paul for 20 games this season due to injury, the Clippers managed to win 57 games and finish as the No. 3 seed in the stacked Western Conference.  When he returned to health, they went 20-5 over their final 20 games of the season.  The fifth loss doesn't count because Paul didn't play in the season finale.

To put it bluntly, the Clippers are my favorite value bet to win the NBA Championship.  The trio of Paul, Blake Griffin and head coach Doc Rivers makes them an enticing bet not only in Game 1, but to win it all.  Griffin really stepped up his game in Paul's absence this year, averaging 24.1 points and 9.5 rebounds per game.

What makes the Clippers so tough to deal with is that they rank 1st in the league in offensive efficiency, averaging 109.4 points per 100 possessions.  That is impressive in Rivers' first year on the job, especially when you consider the fact that Paul missed 20 games and J.J. Redick (15.2 ppg) missed 47.  Having the best sixth man in the league in Jamal Crawford (18.6 ppg) coming off the bench doesn't hurt, either.

Los Angeles will have a huge advantage in the paint in Game 1 due to the absence of Andrew Bogut for the Warriors.  Bogut is out indefinitely with fractured ribs.  To explain his importance, consider that the Warriors allowed 98.8 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, and 100.5 with him off during the regular season.  Golden State simply isn't the same team without him in the lineup because of his defense.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team has won seven straight meetings.  Los Angeles is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three home meetings with Golden State, winning by 13, 11 and 26 points.  I fully expect another double-digit blowout in Game 1 this afternoon.  Take the Clippers in Game 1 Saturday.

15* Giants/Padres NL West BAILOUT on San Francisco +102

The San Francisco Giants (10-6) should not be an underdog to the lowly San Diego Padres (7-9) tonight.  The Giants are an every other year type of team, winning the World Series two of the past four seasons.  They are back at it again in 2014 as they are on a mission to not let the rivalDodgers win the NL West.

Amazingly, the Giants have actually gone 0-3 in Matt Cain's three starts this season.  He has posted a 4.00 ERA and 1.222 WHIP in those three outings, so it's not like he has been rocked.  You can bet that he knows that his team has lost all three of his starts, which will have him that much more motivated to shut down the Padres tonight.

That shouldn't be a problem considering San Diego is hitting just .232 and scoring 2.8 runs per game this year.  To compare, San Francisco is scoring 4.5 runs per game, including 5.7 on the road.  Cain has posted a 3.15 ERA and 1.158 WHIP in 31 career starts against San Diego.

The veteran right-hander has been even more dominant of late against the Padres, going 2-1 with a 1.53 ERA in his last five starts against them, allowing just six earned runs over 35 1/3 innings.  Tyson Ross has never beaten San Francisco, going 0-2 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.558 WHIP in three career starts against the Giants.

Ross is 1-9 (-8.4 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last two seasons.  The Giants are 20-6 in their last 26 games following a loss.  San Francisco is 6-0 in its last six during Game 1 of a series.  The Padres are 0-6 in Ross' last six starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.  Roll with the Giants Friday.

20* American League GAME OF THE MONTH on Tampa Bay Rays -105

Off four straight losses, the Tampa Bay Rays will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 2 of this series against the New York Yankees, who are overvalued due to coming into this contest on a five-game winning streak.

Erik Bedard has actually fared about as well as you could expect in his career against the Yankees.  He has given up two earned runs or fewer in nine of his 14 starts against them.  That includes his final start of 2013 in which he pitched seven shutout innings while allowing only three base runners and striking out nine while with Houston.

My biggest reason for backing the Rays is the fade of Hiroki Kuroda, who cannot seem to figure this team out.  Kuroda is 2-3 with a 7.36 ERA and 1.534 WHIP in five career starts against Tampa Bay.  He gave up 12 earned runs and five homers in 11 2/3 innings in two starts against the Rays in 2013.

Kuroda is 1-11 (-11.4 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last two seasons.  New York is 13-29 (-23.8 Units) against the money line in its last 42 games off an upset win vs. a division rival as an underdog of +130 or higher.  The Yankees are 0-7 in Kuroda's last seven road starts.  The Rays are 24-10 in their last 34 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Bet Tampa Bay Friday.

15* Orioles/Red Sox AL East ANNIHILATOR on Baltimore +120

The Baltimore Orioles get the nod Friday at a great price against the Boston Red Sox.  While Baltimore comes on a day of rest having last played on Wednesday, Boston comes in on no rest after playing Thursday night in Chicago.

While I like the rest factor in their favor, my biggest reason for backing the Orioles is the underrated Chris Tillman getting the ball tonight.  After going 9-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.047 WHIP in 2012, Tillman came back with a 16-7 record, a 3.71 ERA and a 1.221 WHIP in 2013.

The right-hander is off to a brilliant start in 2014 as well, going 1-0 with a 0.84 ERA and 0.844 WHIP while allowing just two earned runs and 18 base runners over 21 1/3 innings.  Want more? How about the fact that Tillman is 4-2 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.262 WHIP in 12 career starts against Boston!

Tillman is 10-1 (+13.1 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons.  Tillman is 9-0 (+12.8 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons.  These trends are based off the opening line of +125, and they are extremely impressive.  Take the Orioles Friday.

20* AL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -165

Off three straight losses, the Tampa Bay Rays are highly motivated for a victory tonight.  Knowing that that division rival New York is coming to town for a 4-game series will only add fuel to their fire.  I don't normally lay this big of juice in baseball, but I believe Tampa Bay is worth every penny of it today.

The Rays could not have a better starter going tonight to put an end to this skid.  They will give the ball to 2012 AL Cy Young winner David Price, who is 2-0 with a 2.91 ERA and 0.969 WHIP with 22 strikeouts over 21 2/3 innings this year.  The left-hander has gone 9-4 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.242 WHIP in 20 career starts against the Yankees.

C.C. Sabathia is on the decline.  He is coming off the worst year of his career in 2013, going 14-13 with a 4.78 ERA and 1.370 WHIP.  The 33-year-old has not been any better to start 2014, going 1-2 with a 6.63 ERA while allowing 14 earned runs and 5 homers over 19 innings.  Worse yet, Sabathia is 1-5 with a 7.15 ERA in his last six starts against Tampa Bay, giving up 31 earned runs over 39 innings.

New York could come in fatigued after having to play a double-header yesterday against Chicago.  Price is 21-5 (+11.3 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw three walks or less/game over the last three seasons.  The Yankees are 1-7 in their last eight games as an underdog.  The Rays are 12-3 in their last 15 vs. a team with a winning record.  Tampa Bay is 51-24 in Price's last 75 starts vs. AL East opponents. 

The Rays are 8-1 in the last nine meetings when Price faces Sabathia.  The Yankees are 1-10 in Sabathia's last 11 road starts versus Tampa Bay.  Enough said.  Bet the Rays Thursday.

15* Warriors/Nuggets NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +8

The Golden State Warriors get the call Wednesday as a massive 8-point underdog to the Denver Nuggets.  Sure, the fact that they are locked into the No. 6 seed is concerning because they are likely to rest their starters, but this team is deep enough to stay within eight of Denver.

The Nuggets, meanwhile, lack depth right now due to injury.  They are expected to be without Ty Lawson, J.J. Hickson, Nate Robinson, Danilo Gallinari and JaVale McGee.  Now, they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 8 days after falling 105-117 to the Clippers last night. They are going to have a hard time getting up for this game knowing that they will be facing the Warriors without Curry, Thompson and Lee.

Indeed, the Warriors have a deep bench.  Harrison Barnes, Jermaine O'Neal, Jordan Crawford, Marreese Speights, Draymond Green and Steve Blake have all played significant minutes for them this season.  This crew is more than capable of not only staying within 8 points of depleted Denver, but pulling off the upset as well.

Golden State is 13-2 ATS off two straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Warriors are 16-5 ATS in April games over the last two years.  Golden State is 50-32 ATS as a road underdog over the last three years.  The Nuggets are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games playing on 0 days rest.  The Warriors are 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Nuggets, including 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Denver.  Take the Warriors Wednesday.

20* AL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Royals -115

Any time you can fade the Houston Astros while laying this small of juice, you should take advantage.  That's precisely what we'll do again Wednesday fresh off a win on the Royals in a 4-2 victory over Houston yesterday to put an end to their 3-game losing streak.

This Kansas City team is one of the best in the league, but a 5-7 start has it under the radar a bit.  I like what I've seen from Jeremy Guthrie so far.  The right-hander has gone 2-0 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.263 WHIP in back-to-back victories over the White Sox and Rays.

Dallas Keuchel is getting way too much respect from the books after a solid start against Toronto last time out.  He's still 1-1 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.417 WHIP on the season.  In his lone career start against Kansas City, Kuechel gave up four earned runs and 13 base runners over 6 2/3 innings.  The left-hander went 3-8 with a 5.27 ERA in 2012, and 6-10 with a 5.15 ERA in 2013.  He has yet to prove himself as a worth big league starter.

The Royals are 10-2 in their last 12 road games vs. a left-handed starter.  Kansas City is 21-7 in Guthrie's last 28 starts following a quality start in his last appearance.  Houston is 26-71 in its last 97 games overall.  The Astros are 1-12 in Kuechel's last 13 starts on five days of rest, 2-8 in his last 10 starts overall, and 1-6 in his last seven home starts.  Kansas City is 4-0 in its last four meetings with Houston.  Bet the Royals Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Brooklyn Nets +7

The Brooklyn Nets are still playing for something.  They can clinch the No. 5 seed with a win tonight, but a loss would have them slotted as the No. 6 seed.  That means if they were to survive the first round, they'd have to play Miami in the second round.  They want the No. 5 seed because then they'd get Indiana in the second.

The Nets were beaten badly by the New York Knicks last night, which has public perception believing that they have quit.  I'm not buying it, and by Paul Pierce's comments after the game, it's clear that this contest against Cleveland is important for them to get things figured out heading into the playoffs.

"(This) was an example of how not to take a step forward," said Paul Pierce, who had 13 points in just 20 minutes. "We were off our game offensively, defensively, all phases of the game and that's not how you want to go into the playoffs."

 Cleveland was officially eliminated from the playoffs with a 116-119 loss to Milwaukee on April 11 in its third-to-last game.  It did not even show up against Boston the next night, losing 99-111 as a 9-point favorite.  It won't show up tonight, either, and it will also be playing without Luol Deng (back).

Brooklyn has won 10 of its last 13 meetings with Cleveland overall.  In fact, it has only lost by more than 5 points to the Cavaliers once in its last 14 meetings.  That makes for a 13-1 system backing the Nets pertaining to tonight's spread of +6.5.  Bet the Nets Wednesday.

15* National League PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Marlins -132

The Miami Marlins give the ball to one of the top five starters in the game.  I'll back the 2013 Rookie of the Year in Jose Fernandez at a great price at home tonight against the Washington Nationals.

The 21-year-old phenom went 12-6 with a 2.19 ERA and 0.979 WHIP with 187 strikeouts over 172 2/3 innings in 28 starts last year.  He has opened 2-1 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.320 WHIP with 23 K's in 16 2/3 innings this year, but he's 2-0 with a 0.71 ERA and 0.789 WHIP in two home starts.

Fernandez is 1-0 with a 0.69 ERA and 0.769 WHIP in two career starts against Washington, giving up one earned run and and 10 base runners over 13 innings.  Both of those starts came at home, which is no surprise.  Fernandez has never lost at home, going a perfect 11-0 with a 1.14 ERA in 17 starts at Marlins Park.

Tanner Roark is one of the few weak links in Washington's rotation.  He has gone 1-0 with a 5.90 ERA and 1.406 WHIP in two starts.  The Nationals are 9-32 (-19.9 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last two seasons.  Take the Marlins Wednesday.

15* Pirates/Reds NL Central Early ANNIHILATOR on Cincinnati -114

The Cincinnati Reds get the call Wednesday as a small home favorite over the Pittsburgh Pirates this afternoon.  The Reds are undervalued right now due to their slow 5-9 start to the year, but there's no question this team is much better than its record would indicate.

The same can be said for today's scheduled starter, Johnny Cueto, who is extremely unlucky not to have a win yet.  Cueto has gone 0-2 in spite of a 2.14 ERA and 1.000 WHIP over three starts this season, allowing just five earned runs in 21 innings.

Cueto has been one of the most underrated starters in the game for years.  He went 9-5 with a 2.31 ERA in 2011, 19-9 with a 2.78 ERA in 2012, and 5-2 with a 2.82 ERA in 2013.  Throw in the fact that the right-hander is 13-5 with a 2.51 ERA and 1.049 WHIP in 24 career starts against Pittsburgh, and I'll gladly back him at this price today.

Francisco Liriano is overvalued after a solid season last year, which was one of the few in his disappointing career.  Liriano is 0-2 with a 4.00 ERA in three starts this season.  The left-hander has gone 6-10 with a 5.24 ERA in day games over the last three seasons, while Cueto has gone 19-4 with a 2.00 ERA in day games over that same time frame.

The Reds are 57-21 in their last 78 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Cincinnati is 20-6 in Cueto's last 26 starts as a home favorite, including 8-1 in his last nine starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150.  The Pirates are 1-4 in Liriano's last five starts vs. Cincinnati.  Roll with the Reds Wednesday.

15* Nuggets/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 219.5

20* AL GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas City Royals -147

15* NL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati Reds +105