20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns -1

The Phoenix Suns are highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost six straight coming in with five of those losses coming by 6 points or less.  This team is much better than their 12-14 record to this point in the season, and they will be laying it all on the line to try and end this skid.

The Suns couldn't ask for a much better opponent to put an end to this losing streak.  They'll be facing a Charlotte Hornets team that is just 6-18 on the season, and one that has lost 13 of their last 15 games coming in.  Their only wins came at home against lowly New York and Boston.

Phoenix has owned Charlotte in recent meeting as well.  It is 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in its last six meetings with the Hornets.  All five of those victories came by 6 points or more as well.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHARLOTTE) - poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less are 199-127 (61%) ATS since 1996.

The Suns are 45-21-1 ATS in their last 67 games playing on 1 days rest.  Phoenix is 30-14-1 ATS in its last 45 games following an ATS loss.  Charlotte is 4-9-2 ATS in its last 15 games overall.  The Hornets are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.  Charlotte is 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games.  Phoenix is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Suns Wednesday.

20* Thunder/Kings ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City -7

The Oklahoma City Thunder are surging since both Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant returned.  After digging themselves an early hole, the Thunder (11-13) cannot afford to take games off the rest of the way if they want to make the playoffs.  That's why you know they are going to bring it every night, and they certainly have done that of late.

Indeed, the Thunder 6-0 in their last six games overall with the last four coming via blowout.  They are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with a 13-point win over Milwaukee, a 9-point win over Cleveland, a 19-point win at Minnesota, and a 24-point win against Phoenix.

Sacramento is in shambles right now.  It has gone 2-8 in its last 10 games overall, which led to the firing of head coach Mike Malone.  This stretch has coincided with the loss of DeMarcus Cousins to a battle with viral meningitis.  The Kings fell to 2-7 without Cousins in a 95-90 home loss to four-win Detroit last time out.  Cousins remains out tonight.

Oklahoma City simply owns Sacramento.  The Thunder have won 11 consecutive meetings with the Kings, and dating back further they are 17-1 in their last 18.  I look for this domination to continue tonight as the Thunder roll to a blowout victory over the Kings.

The Thunder are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Oklahoma City is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes.  Sacramento is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games, and 1-6 ATS in its last seven games when playing on two days' rest.  The Kings are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Bet the Thunder Tuesday.

15* Alabama/Wichita State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Alabama +12.5

After going just 13-19 last year, the Alabama Crimson Tide are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014-15.  They are off to a solid start at 6-2 this season with their only losses coming on the road to nationally ranked Iowa State along with a very good Xavier team.

The reason I'm high on the Crimson Tide this year is because they return four starters from last season.  They are Shannon Hale (8.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg last year), Levi Randolph (9.6 ppg, 3.8 rpg), Rodney Cooper (7.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg) and Retin Obasohan (9.5 ppg, 3.0 rpg).

Randolph (17.8 ppg, 5.1 rpg) and Cooper (13.4 ppg, 3.8 rpg) have taken their games to the next level this season.  Tulane transfer Ricky Tarrant (13.4 ppg) had 20 games of 20-plus points before coming to Alabama and has picked up right where he left off.

Wichita State is simply overvalued right now after making the Final Four last year and getting off to a 7-1 start this year.  That has been evident in its last two games as it beat Seton Hall 77-68 at home as a 12.5-point favorite, and Detroit 77-68 on the road as a 13-point favorite.  Now, we're getting another 12.5-point spread here, and Alabama is better than both Seton Hall and Detroit.

These teams met last December as well with Wichita State winning 72-67 on the road as a 1-point favorite.  That edition of the Shockers was much better than this one, while this edition of the Crimson Tide is much better than last year's.  Alabama is going to want some revenge on the Shockers in this rematch a year later.

Alabam  is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game.  The Crimson Tide are 22-10 ATS in their last 32 games as an underdog of 10 or more points.  Alabama is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games as a road dog of 12.5 to 18 points.  The Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a ATS loss.  Roll with Alabama Tuesday.

15* Warriors/Grizzlies ESPN Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 203

This is an excellent matchup tonight between the top two teams in the Western Conference in Golden State (21-2) and Memphis (19-4).  I look for the intensity to be very high in this game, especially on the defensive end, given the caliber of this game and the fact that it will be nationally televised on ESPN.

After all, the reason these teams are in 1st and 2nd place are because of their defense.  Golden State ranks 1st in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up just 95.2 points per 100 possessions.  Memphis ranks 7th, allowing 100.2 points per 100 possessions.

This is a contrast in styles as the Warriors like to push the tempo, while the Grizzlies like to slow it down.  Well, the home team almost always controls the tempo, so look for this game to be played at a snail's pace.  Memphis ranks 25th in the league in pace at 94.2 offensive possessions per game.

When you look at previous meetings between these teams and previous totals in this series, it's easy to see that this total has been inflated tonight.  Oddsmakers have set the totals for Memphis vs. Golden State games at 192.5 or less in each of their last seven meetings.  This total is set at 203 points.

It's also easy to see why this number is inflated when you consider how low-scoring this series has been.  Memphis and Golden State have combined for 198 or fewer points in each of their last eight meetings.  They have combined for 193, 190, 169, 198, 192, 181, 198 and 192 points in their last eight meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 189.1 combined points per game, which is roughly 14 points less than tonight's posted total of 203.

Another reason this number is inflated is because both Golden State and Memphis are coming off high-scoring games, but that was the result of overtime.  The Warriors beat the Pelicans without Anthony Davis 128-122 in OT last time out, while the Grizzlies have played back-to-back OT games against Philadelphia (120-115) and Charlotte (113-107).

Golden State is 20-9 to the UNDER after a combined score of 215 points or more over the last two seasons.  Memphis is 60-34 to the UNDER in its last 94 games off four or more consecutive wins.  The UNDER is 42-15 in Warriors last 57 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 40-19 in Warriors last 59 games following an ATS loss.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Warriors last seven vs. Western Conference foes.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns -4.5

The Phoenix Suns are way undervalued right now due to their current five-game losing streak that has dropped them to 12-13 on the season.  Now, they are only 4.5-point home favorites against the Milwaukee Bucks tonight when they should be closer to double-digit favorites.

The Suns have played a tough stretch of games during this losing streak, and four of the five losses have come by 6 points or less.  They lost at Houston, at LA Clippers and at Oklahoma City.  They aren't all of a sudden a bad team due to this streak, they just have had some bad fortune.  The public perception on them is way down, and now it's time to back the Suns as they play an inspired effort at home tonight to put an end to this skid.

Milwaukee is actually overvalued right now due to its decent 12-12 start to the year.  While there's no question the Bucks are improved, they have no business only catching 4.5 points against one of the better teams in the Western Conference.  The Bucks have lost five of their last seven coming in.  They are just 5-8 on the road this season where they are giving up 103.5 points per game.

Phoenix has owned Milwaukee in recent meetings.  It is 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings with Milwaukee overall with five of those victories coming by 9 points or more.  The Suns swept the season series with the Bucks last year, winning 116-100 at home and 126-117 on the road.  I like their chances of earning another blowout victory here tonight.

Milwaukee is in a letdown spot after beating the Clippers at home on Saturday, who were tired playing the second of a back-to-back.  Milwaukee is 4-14 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Bucks are 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games following a S.U. win.  The Suns are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.  Phoenix is 30-13-1 ATS in its last 44 games following an ATS loss.  Roll with the Suns Monday.

20* Saints/Bears ESPN Monday Night MASSACRE on New Orleans -3

These teams share identical 5-8 records. However, there is one distinct difference, and it’s the reason that I am taking the Saints Monday night. The Saints are tied for first place in the NFC South and are still fighting to make the playoffs. The Bears have already been eliminated from the playoffs as they trail the final two wild card spots by four games with only three to play. So, the Saints will be the more motivated team in this one, and I’ll side with them as a result.

Couple that motivation with the fact that the Saints are the better team statistically despite their identical 5-8 records, and it’s plenty of reason to lay the three points with the road favorite this week. Indeed, the Saints rank 9th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 22.3 yards per game on the season. Of the top 17 teams in yardage differential, only two have losing records. They are the Saints and the Redskins, who are both underrated teams.

Chicago is every bit as bad as its 5-8 record would indicate. It ranks 27th in the league in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 35.0 yards per game this season. It has really been beat up defensively. It allows a league-worst 29.1 points per game this season while ranking 28th in the NFL in total defense at 377.8 yards per game.

That’s bad news for the Bears considering they will be up against one of the league’s best offenses this week. New Orleans ranks 3rd in the NFL in total offense, averaging 421.0 yards per game. The Bears have allowed 34 or more points in four of their last six games overall. They gave up 51 to New England, 55 to Green Bay, 34 to Detroit, and 41 to Dallas. The only exceptions were games against terrible offenses in Tampa Bay and Minnesota.

The Bears have been decent offensively this year as they rank 18th at 342.8 yards per game. However, they just lost their best player on offense in Brandon Marshall to a season-ending injury, and Jay Cutler and company will suffer going forward as a result. Marshall has 61 receptions for 721 yards and eight touchdowns this season and is simply irreplaceable. The Saints will be able to key in on stopping Alshon Jeffery this week instead of having to try to contain both Marshall and Jeffery, which will be a much easier task.

New Orleans has actually been playing better on the road than at home here of late. It has gone 2-0 in its last two road games with wins at Carolina (28-10) and at Pittsburgh (35-32). Even in its road game prior to those two wins, it only lost at Detroit 23-24 after blowing a 23-10 lead over the final four minutes of the game. These last three road games are proof that you can put to rest the notion that the Saints can only win at home.

Drew Brees has led the Saints to wins in each of the last two meetings with the Bears.  They won 30-13 at home in 2011 and 26-18 on the road last year over Chicago.  Brees has completed 76.4 percent of his passes for 558 yards with five touchdowns without an interception in those two games, and figures to have another monster performance on Monday Night Football.

Plays on road teams (NEW ORLEANS) – after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, after the first month of the season are 53-22 (70.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  New Orleans is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 road games after allowing 175 or more rushing yards in its last game. Chicago is 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 home games. The Bears are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 vs. NFC opponents. Chicago is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following a double-digit home loss. The Bears are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 December games.

Chicago is 0-8 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 7.0 or more yards per attempt in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Bears are 0-7 ATS versus good offensive teams that average 350 or more yards per game in the second half of the season over the last three years.  Chicago is 0-6 ATS versus excellent offensive teams that average 6.0 yards per play or more in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  These three trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing New Orleans.  Bet the Saints Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Orlando Magic +7

The Orlando Magic have been a money-making machine for me here of late, and I'm going to continue to ride them because they continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  That's especially the case in today's situation.

Orlando is a much better team than its 10-16 record would indicate.  It has gone 15-6 ATS in its last 20 games overall.  It has also gone 4-4 SU & 7-1 ATS in its last eight games.   The Magic beat Phoenix (93-90), Utah (98-93) and Sacramento (105-96) all on the road, while also topping Atlanta (100-99) at home.  They suffered close road losses to Golden State (97-98) and Atlanta (81-87), and a close home loss to Washington (89-91) during this eight-game stretch.

The Magic just got back their leading scorer and rebounder in Nikola Vucevic (18.6 ppg, 11.7 rpg) after a five-game absence.  He returned in time to beat the Hawks on Saturday, and now he's back to full strength and the Magic should be an even more dangerous team going forward.  They also feel pretty good about themselves after Tobias Harris hit a game-winner at the buzzer to beat Atlanta.

While I like what I've seen from the Magic of late, this is more of a fade of Toronto than anything.  The Raptors are way overvalued due to having the best record in the Eastern Conference at 18-6.  Well, they have shown signs of slowing down here of late, going just 5-4 in their last nine games overall.  A lot of that has had to with an injury to second-leading scorer DeMar DeRozan (19.4 ppg), who has missed the past nine games with a groin injury.

DeRozan will miss this game as well.  Without him, this roster is very thin.  The Raptors are in a tough spot here as they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  Plus, they went to overtime to beat New York on the road last night, and I look for them to come out tired and flat in this game against the re-energized Magic.  Orlando will be giving the better effort in this one, and it will allow them to stay within 7 points and possibly pull off the upset.

Plays on road teams (ORLANDO) - off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 22-3 (88%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Orlando is 8-1 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  The Magic are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Orlando is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  The Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Take the Magic Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks +7

The New York Knicks own one of the league's worst records at this point in the season at 5-20.  As a result, they are way undervalued right now.  I certainly do not believe they are one of the worst teams in the NBA, but they have simply been unlucky in close games this year.

Indeed, a whopping 13 of the Knicks' 20 losses this season have come by 7 points or less.  That is about as unlucky as it gets.  This team has not quit, however, as it is coming off a big win at Boston 101-95 on Friday to put an end to an extended losing streak.  I like its chances of pulling off the upset tonight as well.

At 17-6 on the season and with one of the best records in the NBA, the Toronto Raptors are clearly overvalued right now.  This combination of the Raptors being overvalued and the Knicks undervalued has created some massive line inflation in this game.  The Raptors should not be laying 7 points on the road to the Knicks.

New York won each of its final two meetings of the season with with the Raptors in 2013-14.  It won 108-100 as a 5.5-point road underdog, and 95-92 as a 6-point home dog.  It has actually taken three of its last five from Toronto.  The underdog is 16-6 ATS in the last 22 meetings.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW YORK) - hot shooting team - three straight games making at least 47% of their shots are 92-52 (63.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the Knicks Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Samford +18

This play is more of a fade of Wake Forest than a play on Samford.  I simply do not believe the Demon Deacons should be favored by 18 tonight with the way they have played in 2014.

Wake Forest is in transition mode in its first year under Danny Manning.  It lost four players from last year's team that averaged from 6.9 to 10.7 points per game.  It did bring back three starters, but one of those is Madison Jones (3.3 ppg, 2.8 apg), who should not count as a returning starter.

The Demon Deacons are off to a 4-5 start this year.  Their four wins have come against UNC-Asheville, Tulane, Nicholls State and Mount St. Mary's.  They have been blown out by Arkansas (53-83), Minnesota (69-84) and NC State (65-78), while also suffering very bad home losses to Delaware State (65-72) and Iona (81-85).

Samford is off to a 3-7 start this season, but it has at least been competitive in terms of the point spread, going 5-3 ATS.  Wake Forest is just 1-4 ATS to compare.  I've seen enough from the Bulldogs to know that they can hang with the Demon Deacons in this one.

They have impressive road losses to Pittsburgh (56-63) as 31-point underdogs and to LA Tech (64-77) as 24-point dogs.  They also lost to CS-Northridge (72-79) as 10-point underdogs on a neutral court.  They last played on December 6th, so they will be well-rested and ready to go after having seven days in between games.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (SAMFORD) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, a bad team (20% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 88-47 (65.2%) ATS since 1997. 

The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  Samford is 5-0 ATS in its last five Sunday games.  Wake Forest is 1-5 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  The Demon Deacons are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  These four trends combine for a 19-1 system backing the Bulldogs.  Roll with Samford Sunday.

15* 49ers/Seahawks NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco +10

This line is clearly an overreaction for a couple of different reasons. The first being the results last week. The Seahawks earned an impressive 24-14 road win at Philadelphia, while the 49ers lost at Oakland 13-24 despite being an 8-point favorite in that game. So, the public perception is high on the Seahawks right now, while it’s very low on the 49ers. That has forced the oddsmakers to set this line higher than it should be knowing that the betting public is going to be quick to back the Seahawks.

The other reason for this big spread is that the 49ers just lost to the Seahawks 19-3 at home two weeks ago. Obviously, that was not a good showing for the 49ers, but they are going to be playing desperate football Sunday because they know they likely have to win out to make the playoffs. These rivalry games are always played closer to the vest, and the 49ers will be out for blood in this game.

One thing that jumps out to me is the line on this game compared to the one in San Francisco.  The 49ers were 1-point favorites at home over the Seahawks, so when you factor in three points for home-field advantage, they should only be 5-point underdogs at Seattle in the rematch.  With this line being 10 instead, we are getting roughly 5 extra points of value on the 49ers.  That says it all right there.

Prior to that 19-3 win by the Seahawks, the previous two meetings in this series were decided by a combined eight points. The 49ers won 19-17 at home in 2013, and they also hung tough in a 17-23 road loss to the Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game last year. They actually led that game most of the way before blowing it in the fourth quarter, so they have proven they can hang with the Seahawks in Seattle. They hold a 5-4 edge over the Seahawks in their last nine meetings.

With a defense as good as the one the 49ers feature, they have a chance to be competitive in every game they play. They rank 3rd in the league in total defense, giving up just 308.5 yards per game on the season. Yes, their offense has not been up to par, but their defense is the reason why they have played in so many close games this year. Indeed, 10 of the 49ers’ 13 games this year have been decided by 11 points or less. They have only lost twice by more than 11 points all season.

The 49ers also have the formula for stopping the Seahawks.  First and foremost, you must slow down Marshawn Lynch and the rushing attack.  Well, the 49ers rank 7th in the league against the run, giving up just 97.2 yards per game and 3.9 per carry.  They held the Raiders to just 85 rushing yards on 31 carries last week and should be able to build off of that performance.

This is actually a letdown spot for the Seahawks. They are coming off their huge road win over the Eagles last week, and they have Arizona on deck next week with first place in the NFC West likely on the line. They also already beat the 49ers by 16, so they are going to be in a tough spot here mentally.

They won’t be as emotionally jacked up for this game as they were the first time they played the 49ers, or as much as they were against the Eagles, and as much as they will be next week against the Cardinals. It’s going to take 100% focus for the Seahawks to win this game by more than 10 points, and even that may not be enough against a 49ers team that will be out for revenge.  The Seahawks are almost overconfident right now, which will work against them.

Plays on underdogs or pick (SAN FRANCISCO) – off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 31-9 (77.5%) ATS since 1983. Plays on underdogs or pick (SAN FRANCISCO) – off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games in the second half of the season are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS since 1983. Plays on road teams (SAN FRANCISCO) – revenging a loss against opponent, off a road loss are 75-35 (67.6%) ATS over the past 10 seasons.

San Francisco is a perfect 8-0 ATS after having lost two of its last three games over the past two seasons. The 49ers are 19-5 ATS in their last 24 games following an upset loss as a road favorite. San Francisco is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games vs. a poor passing defense that allows a completion percentage of 61% or better. The 49ers are 26-11-3 ATS in their last 40 games following a ATS loss. San Francisco is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 road games.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Buffalo Bills +5.5

The Buffalo Bills (7-6) have been fighting hard to make the playoffs here in recent weeks, and they have been playing their best football of the season as a result. They have won two of their last three games while going a perfect 3-0 against the spread. Their two wins came via the blowout as they dominated the Jets 38-3 on a neutral field. They also topped the Browns 26-10 at home. They outscored those two teams a ridiculous 64-13.

However, I was just as impressed with the Bills’ only loss during this stretch. They went into Denver last week and gave the Broncos a run for their money in a 17-24 road loss as 9.5-point underdogs. They actually outplayed the Broncos when you look at the box score. They outgained them 415-306 for the game, or by 109 total yards. They held Peyton Manning to just 14 of 20 passing for 173 yards and two interceptions without a touchdown pass. It was the first time in over 50 games that Manning failed to throw a TD pass.

A big reason I was on the Bills last week was because of their passing defense. Well, after shutting down Manning, they certainly showed that they can stop anyone’s passing game. That’s why you have to like their chances of slowing down Green Bay and its passing attack led by Aaron Rodgers, who is having an MVP-type season. I look for this Bills’ defense to be the reason that they not only stay within five points, but also the reason that they have a chance to win this game outright.

Buffalo ranks 4th in the league in scoring defense at 18.5 points per game while ranking 5th in total defense at 311.9 yards per game. The Bills have been elite against the pass, ranking 5th in the NFL at 212.8 yards per game allowed. The Packers, on the other hand, have been terrible defensively this season. They are giving up 23.4 points per game while ranking 26th in the league in total defense (374.4 yards/game).

Green Bay is 7-0 at home but just 3-3 on the road. It is actually getting outscored by 4.3 points per game away from home this season. It has only one win on the road by more than three points this year, and that was a 38-17 win at Chicago in a game that was nowhere near the blowout that the final score would indicate. The Packers were actually outgained by 138 yards by the Bears in that contest.

The Packers have been even worse defensively on the road. They are giving up 26.8 points and 399.8 yards per game away from home. Their offense has been held in check in road games, too, averaging just 343.0 yards per game. So, they are getting outgained by 56.8 yards per game away from home this year.

This is also a tough spot for the Packers. They are working on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football against the Falcons last week. Their defense has to be tired, too, after surrendering 37 points and 465 total yards to the Falcons. Their stop unit spent most of the second half on the field and looked to be worn down as the Falcons scored 30 points after intermission.

Kyle Orton should have a big game against this Green Bay defense. Orton has stabilized the offense, going 5-4 as a starter this season. He is completing 64.7 percent of his passes for 2,355 yards with 14 touchdowns and only seven interceptions on the year. He threw for a season-high 355 yards against a very good Broncos defense last week.

Plays against road teams (GREEN BAY) – after scoring 30 points or more last game against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 89-47 (65.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Packers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a .500 or better road record. The home team is 6-0 straight up in the last six meetings in this series dating back to 1994.  Green Bay has never won in Buffalo in five trips there.  Take the Bills Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Browns PK

I don’t think the switch to Johnny Manziel at quarterback will have a huge impact on this game, but it was time to make the move nonetheless. Brian Hoyer had led just one touchdown drive in his last 29 series. Manziel will give the offense a spark this week, and the Browns have the element of surprise with him at quarterback over Hoyer. While I’m not sure this will be the right move for the team long-term, for one week I do believe it is the right move and will pan out.

This Cleveland offense will continue to perform at about a league-average level. It ranks 13th in the NFL in total offense at 353.8 yards per game. But the reason I’m siding with the Browns in this one is more due to their defense than anything. They are giving up a very respectable 20.8 points per game this season and will shut down this Cincinnati offense just as they did the last time these teams met up.

Cleveland (7-6) throttled Cincinnati 24-3 on the road back on November 6th. This game was every bit the blowout as the final score would indicate. The Browns outgained the Bengals 368-165 for the game, or by 203 total yards. Andy Dalton went just 10 of 33 for 86 yards with three interceptions in the worst performance of his career. He even had a healthy A.J. Green in that game, so there was no excuse. Green finished with three receptions for 23 yards.

That was a rare win for the road team in this series, too. Home-field advantage has been huge in this series over the past five-plus seasons. The home team has won eight of the last 10 meetings. The Browns have won three of their last four home meetings with the Bengals with the last two coming via blowout. They won 17-6 at home last year and 34-24 at home in 2012. They have held the Bengals to 266 total yards or less in each of their last three meetings as this defense simply has Dalton and company figured out.

Another big reason why I’m backing the Browns in this one is because the Bengals are arguably the most overrated team in the NFL. Yes, they’re in first place in the AFC North with an 8-4-1 record, but they’re nowhere near as good as their record would indicate. Most teams would have a losing record with the numbers they have put up.

Cincinnati ranks 24th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 29.3 yards per game this season. Eight of the 10 teams ranked 23rd or worse in yardage differential have losing records this season, with only the Bengals and Cardinals as the exceptions. Arizona is also an overrated team.

The biggest culprit for this poor performance in yardage differential is the defense.  The Bengals are surrendering 22.2 points and 377.5 yards per game to rank a woeful 28th in the league in total defense.  They gave up 42 points and 543 total yards in a 21-point loss to the Steelers last week.  With a stop unit like that, the Bengals have no staying power and will be bumped from the AFC North lead by season's end.  It starts this week against a desperate Browns team fighting for their playoff lives.

Cleveland is 4-3 at home this season with two of its three losses coming by a combined three points to Baltimore (24-26) and Indianapolis (24-25).  That's how close this is to being a 6-1 team at home, so obviously, the Browns have played great at home this year.  They are limiting opponents to just 19.3 points per game at home in 2014.

Cincinnati is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 road games off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival. The Bengals are 10-25 ATS in their last 35 games off a loss by 21 or more points. The Browns are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record. Cincinnati is 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 games after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game. The Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Cincinnati.  Take the Browns Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Houston Texans +7

I really like the toughness that the Houston Texans (7-6) have shown over their last four games to put themselves in position to make the playoffs. They have won three of their last four and the three victories haven’t even been close. They went on the road and beat both Cleveland (23-7) and Jacksonville (27-13), while also topping Tennessee (45-21) at home. Their lone loss came to Cincinnati (13-22) in a game where it was announced after that Ryan Mallett was playing with a torn pectoral muscle.

This Houston defense has really come alive during this stretch. It has given up an average of just 15.8 points per game in its last four games as this is one of the most underrated stop units in the league. The offense has really received a boost from the return of Arian Foster from a two-game absence. He returned the last two weeks, and to no surprise, the Texans have scored an average of 36.0 points per game in their last two.

Foster is having a huge year despite missing three games due to injury. He has rushed for 1,028 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging 5.0 per carry, while also catching 33 balls for 276 yards and four scores. This offense goes as he goes. The Texans are 6-4 in games that Foster has started this year. They rushed for 173 yards on the Jaguars last week and currently sit at 4th in the league in rushing at 137.1 yards per game.

The Colts have been extremely vulnerable defensively in 2014. They rank 18th in the league in total defense, allowing 23.6 points and 355.8 yards per game on the season. That’s not the sign of a team with staying power when it comes to the playoffs. They have not been very good against the run as they allow an average of 4.4 yards per carry.

Foster rushed for 109 yards and two touchdowns on the Colts in their 28-33 home loss to Indianapolis back on October 9th. The Texans had their chances to win that game, but they committed two costly fumbles on their final two drives. Both drives ended in turnovers, and both were as they were trying to take the lead with a game-winning touchdown late. I believe they’ll be within a touchdown late in this one with a chance to win as well.

Houston has played its best football on the road this season.  It is 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in seven road games.  It is scoring 23.9 points per game and giving up just 18.6 points per game on the road.  It is actually outscoring teams by an average of 5.3 points per game away from home.  That really just shows how tough the Texans are mentally to be able to go on the road in this league and play that well.

Adding extra motivation for the Texans is that they have not won in Indianapolis in 12 all-time meetings.  "We're well aware that we have not won there," Texans coach Bill O'Brien said. If that's not motivation, then I don't know what is.  Simply put, the Texans are going to be playing more inspired football this week than they have shown all season.

Turnovers could swing in the the Texans' favor in this one as well.  The Colts turned the ball over four times against the Browns last week in a fortunate 25-24 road win.  They have lost seven of 13 fumbles and had three passes picked off over the last three weeks.  They rely so much on Andrew Luck that their offense has become rather predictable, and opposing teams have been able to get pressure on him.  Houston has one of the best front fours in the league and will get plenty of pressure with J.J. Watt and company.

Plays on any team (HOUSTON) – after a game where they committed no turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers are 72-47 (60.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. Houston is 23-10 ATS in its last 33 games revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points. The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  Roll with the Texans Sunday.

25* AFC East GAME OF THE YEAR on New England Patriots -7

The New England Patriots are on a mission to get that No. 1 seed in the AFC because they know their chances of reaching the Super Bowl are greatly increased if the AFC runs through Foxborough. They even went out to San Diego as a team for the entire week after their loss to the Packers in Week 13 and made it a business trip. That experience with an entire week together will only grow the bond between these players. It was amazing to see the emotion the Patriots showed once they had beaten the Chargers 23-14; it was almost like they had just won the Super Bowl.

New England (10-3) has been playing as well as anyone for a couple months now. It has won eight of its last nine games overall with six of those wins coming by 15 points or more. That includes wins over the likes of Cincinnati (43-17) and Denver (42-20) at home, as well as road wins over Indianapolis (42-20) and Buffalo (37-22). The Patriots are scoring 35.4 points per game and allowing just 19.7 points per game in their last nine games, outscoring the opposition by a whopping 15.7 points per game during this stretch.

Miami has lost three of its last five games and has not played well at all over this span. It has been outgained in four of those five games, including by 123 yards in loss to Detroit, by 137 yards in a loss to Denver, and by 198 yards in a 15-point loss to Baltimore last week. It was even outgained by the Jets by 35 yards and was lucky to escape with a 16-13 road win in that contest thanks to a last-minute touchdown.

New England just held a high-powered San Diego offense to only 14 points and 216 total yards. That’s bad news for a Miami offense that has really hit the skids in recent weeks. The Dolphins have been held to 16 or fewer points in three of their last five games. They only managed 249 total yards against Baltimore, 291 total yards against New York, 228 total yards against Detroit, and 313 total yards against Denver in four of their last five games.

Tom Brady has a 45-7 career record in the month of December, which is the best of any quarterback to ever play the game. New England is 6-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 18.4 points per game this year. It is putting up 35.7 points and 408.2 total yards at Gillette Stadium, while allowing just 17.3 points per game there. These two trends are simply too hard to ignore and would be foolish to bet against.

Plus, the Patriots want revenge on the Dolphins, so they certainly will not be looking past them.  The Patriots are 29-13 ATS in their last 42 games when revenging a same-season loss.  In their last 10 games in same-season revenge situations, they are 9-0-1 ATS while covering the spread by an average of 10.0 points per game.

The Dolphins are really hurting in the secondary right now, which could allow Brady to have a monster game against them. They just lost arguably their best player on D in safety Louis Delmas to a season-ending knee injury. Cornerbacks Cortland Finnegan and Jamar Taylor have been out since Week 11 and Week 13, respectively, and both are questionable to return this week. The loss of Delmas is huge, and if Finnegan and Taylor both don’t play, it would just be an added bonus.

While Brady has been tearing it up through the air, you might find that the Patriots dominate this game on the ground just as much.  That's because the Dolphins have been shredded up front defensively in recent weeks.  In their last three games, they allowed 201 rushing yards to the Broncos, 277 to the Jets, and 183 to the Ravens for an average of 220.3 rushing yards per game.

The Patriots are 26-8 ATS in their last 34 games when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 51% to 60%.  New England is 6-0 ATS in home games against teams with winning records over the last two seasons, winning in these spots by 16.6 points per game. New England is 7-0 ATS in home games against good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better over the last two seasons.  Add the 9-0 ATS trend on same-season revenge, and we have a perfect 22-0 system backing New England here.  Bet the Patriots Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Night Line Mistake on Orlando Magic +3.5

This is a classic home-and-home situation here between Orlando and Atlanta.  These teams played last night in Atlanta with the Hawks coming away with an 87-81 home victory.  I backed the Magic +8 with success in that game, and I'll turn around and back them again here.

You almost always want to take the team that lost the first game of a home-and-home situation in the second game no matter the location.  That's because the team that lost the first game is going to be highly motivated for revenge, while the team that won the first game finds it hard to be motivated to beat a team two days in a row.

Orlando is a team that is better than its 9-16 record would indicate.  It has gone 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games overall.  It has also gone 3-4 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven games.   The Magic beat Phoenix (93-90), Utah (98-93) and Sacramento (105-96) all on the road, while also suffering close road losses to Golden State (97-98) and Atlanta (81-87), and a close home loss to Washington (89-91) during this stretch.

Atlanta was a team that was clearly undervalued coming into the year.  But, after a 16-6 start and a current nine-game winning streak coming into this one, there's no question that the Hawks are overvalued right now.  They should not be laying any points to the Magic tonight.  All nine of the Hawks' wins during their streak have come against teams with .500 or worse records.

One key here is that Orlando is expected to have its best player back after a five-game absence.  Leading scorer and rebounder Nikola Vucevic (18.6 ppg, 11.7 rpg) has missed the last five games with a back injury, including last night's game, but he is listed as probable for this one.  He'll give this team a huge boost, especially since this is the second of a back-to-back situation.

The Magic are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Orlando is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Magic are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  The underdog is 16-6 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  The Magic are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take Orlando Saturday.

20* CBB Mid-Major GAME OF THE MONTH on Northern Iowa +7.5

The Northern Iowa Panthers are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are a real threat to challenge Wichita State for the Missouri Valley Conference Title this season, and that's no joke.

This is a Northern Iowa team that went just 16-15 last year, but one that will be one of the most improved in the country in 2014.  That's because it returns all five starters from last year and almost all of its key reserves as well.

The starters back are G Matt Bohannon (9.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg last year), F Marvin Singleton (3.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg), F Seth Tuttle (15.4 ppg, 8.0 rpg), G Wes Washpun (8.3 ppg, 3.5 rpg) and G Deon Mitchell (12.1 ppg, 2.3 rpg).

Also back are Jeremy Morgan (6.0 ppg, 2.7 rpg) and Nate Buss (10.6 ppg, 5.0 rpg).  The Panthers have also added in Virginia transfer Paul Jesperson and four other redshirts, and I expect them to make their first NCAA Tournament since 2011.

The Panthers are off to a great start at accomplishing that feat.  They are 9-0 to this point in the season and have just recently moved into the Top 25.  That includes wins on a neutral court over VA Tech (73-54) and Northwestern (61-42), as well as road win at Stephen F. Austin (79-77) and Denver (65-55).

Northern Iowa is one of the best defensive teams in the country.  It gives up just 55.2 points per game on 39.0% shooting.  It only turns the ball over 12 times per game, which is huge because VCU loves to press.  UNI's guards will be able to handle that press in this one.

It's clear that VCU is not the same team that it was a year ago.  It is clearly down this year at 5-3 while going 2-5 ATS.  It has some really bad losses along the way.  It lost to Villanova 53-77 on a neutral court, Old Dominion 67-73 on the road, and Virginia 57-74 at home.  It is simply overvalued due to what it has done in the NCAA Tournament in the past.  This may not be a tournament team in 2014-15.

Last year, Northern Iowa had a worse team than VCU but won 77-68 at home despite being a 5-point underdog.  It shot 53.1% from the field and held the Rams to just 36.9% shooting.  It did turn the ball over 16 times, but that's not a bad number against this VCU defense.  Also, with all five starters back, the Panthers know what to expect from the Rams.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (N IOWA) - after allowing 65 points or less 4 straight games against opponent after a loss by 15 points or more are 66-31 (68%) ATS since 1997.  Northern Iowa is 9-1 ATS versus teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game over the last three seasons.  The Panthers are 29-12 ATS in road games off four or more consecutive wins.  VCU is 1-9 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons.  Bet Northern Iowa Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas -3.5

Yes, this game between Kansas and Utah is being played on a neutral court.  However, it won't be neutral at all as it will be played inside the Sprint Center in Kansas City, MO.  It will certainly be a pro-Kansas crowd to say the least, and these players are used to this venue considering it's where the Big 12 Tournament is played.

I really like what I've seen from this Kansas team since an ugly loss to Kentucky back on November 18th.  It has gone 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall as this young team has grown up on a hurry.  All six wins came by 5 points or more, including road wins over Michigan State (61-56), Rhode Island (76-60) and Georgetown (75-70), as well as a home win over Florida (71-65).

Utah is definitely a team to keep your eye on in terms of making the NCAA Tournament with four starters back this year.  It is off to a 7-1 start, but it has done most of its damage at home.  It is just 1-1 on the road with a loss at San Diego State and a win over BYU.  It is being overvalued right now because it also beat Wichita State (69-68) by a single point at home.

The Utes only currently have three starters back because their second-leading scorer in Jordan Loveridge (11.5 ppg) is out for a month with a knee injury.  His scoring is going to be hard to replace because he helps the offense space the floor so well as he shoots 50.0% from 3-point range.  Without Loveridge, the Utes stand no chance of keeping this 'road' game close against Kansas.

Utah is 22-51 ATS in its last 73 road games off two straight games where it had five or fewer steals.  The Jayhawks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games off two straight wins by 6 points or less.  Kansas is 8-1 ATS versus slow-down teams that average 53 or less shots per game over the last three seasons.  The Utes are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. Big 12 foes.  The Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  These last three trends combine for an 18-1 system backing the Jayhawks.  Take Kansas Saturday.

20* Army/Navy CBS Saturday No-Brainer on UNDER 59.5

I believe the books have set a very good spread in this game.  They know that the betting public is going to be on Navy due to its 12-game winning streak in this series, so they set the spread above two touchdowns to try and slow down the money coming in on the Midshipmen.  While I still believe Navy is probably the right side, I find more value in backing the total in this game.

Army and Navy are very familiar with one another.  They both run the triple-option offense, so neither team is going to be surprised by what they see.  That's why year after year the final combined score usually finishes UNDER the number.  Another reason for this is the fact that both teams have had a ton of time off in between games, which helps them in preparation.  Navy last played on November 28th, while Army last played on November 22nd.

Indeed, this has been a very low-scoring series.  The UNDER is a perfect 8-0 in the last eight meetings between Army and Navy.  They have combined for 41, 30, 48, 48, 20, 34, 41, and 40 points in their last eight meetings, respectively.  As you can see, they have not topped 48 combined points in any of those eight meetings.  In fact, they are averaging a combined 37.8 points per game during this stretch, which is roughly 22 points less than this posted total of 59.5.

When two teams run the ball as much as these two do, the clock is going to be moving continuously, which aids the under.  Army averages 56 rush attempts and 9 pass attempts per game, while Navy averages 56 rush attempts and 10 pass attempts per contest.  So, Army runs the ball 86% of the time, while Navy runs the ball 85% of the time.  There will be very few incomplete passes in this game to stop the clock.

Army is 7-0 to the UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.  Navy is 7-0 to the UNDER when playing against a bad team with a winning percentage from 25% to 40% over the last three years.  The Midshipmen are 10-1 to the UNDER versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.9 or more yards per play over the last three seasons.  Navy is 6-0 to the UNDER off a road win over the last three years.  Throw in that the UNDER is 8-0 in the last eight meetings, and these five trends combine for a 38-1 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

Note - I released this play on Monday knowing that the total in Army/Navy was going to go down from the 59.5-point opener.  I still recommend a bet on the UNDER at anything 55 or above.  Thanks.

15* Warriors/Mavs NBA Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Dallas +1.5

The Golden State Warriors are the single-most overrated team in the NBA at this point in the season because they own the league's best record at 17-2.  Now, they actually find themselves favored on the road against one of the best teams in the West in Dallas.

Dallas is among the league's best in field-goal shooting at 48.2 percent and averages an NBA-best 110.5 points.  It has scored at least 105 points in nine straight games while going 7-2 during this stretch.

The Mavericks are 9-3 at home this season where their 115.5 points per game scored leads the NBA as well.  Home-court advantage has been big in this series as well.  The home team has won five of the last six meetings.

Dallas is 36-18 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Mavericks are 53-24 ATS in their last 77 games following a ATS loss.  Dallas is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Roll with the Mavericks Saturday.

20* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Pelicans -2.5

The New Orleans Pelicans look to get back to .500 as they host the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight in a big game for them.  I look for the Pelicans to take it to the Cavaliers, who have nothing left in the tank right now.

Cleveland will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  The Cavaliers exerted a lot of energy last night in a 94-103 loss to the Thunder.  They were down 20 in the second half and fought back to get within 3, but ultimately lost by 9.

Plus, Lebron James missed last night's game with knee soreness.  He is questionable to play tonight as well.  Whether he plays or not I still recommend a play on the Pelicans, but if he doesn't that will only be an added bonus.

The Pelicans have had the Cavaliers' number in recent meetings.  They have won six of their last eight meetings with Cleveland.  Home-court advantage has also been big in this series.  The home team has won four of the last five meetings with the only exception being a Pelicans' 100-89 road win last year.

The Pelicans are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 home games.  New Orleans is 7-2 ATS in its last nine vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  New Orleans is 6-2 at home this season, outscoring teams by 10.6 points per game.  Bet the Pelicans Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando Magic +8

The Orlando Magic are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  It has gone 9-15 SU this season, but a very profitable 14-10 ATS as it has been very competitive in most of its game.  Eight of its losses have come by 8 points or less.

The Magic are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  They have gone 3-3 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games.  They beat Phoenix (93-90), Utah (98-93) and Sacramento (105-96) all on the road, while also suffering a close road loss to Golden State (97-98), and a close home loss to Washington (89-91) during this stretch.

Atlanta was a team that was clearly undervalued coming into the year.  But, after a 15-6 start and a current eight-game winning streak coming into this one, there's no question that the Hawks are overvalued right now.  They should not be laying 8 points to the Magic tonight.  All eight wins during their streak have come against teams with losing records.

Orlando split the season series with Atlanta last season while going 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS.  Its two losses came by 3 and 10 points, while its two wins came by 17 and 7 points.  So, it actually outscored the Hawks in their four meetings last year.  The Magic are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The underdog is 15-6 ATS int he last 21 meetings.

Plays against home favorites (ATLANTA) - off a home win by 10 points or more, on Friday nights are 80-42 (65.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Magic are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Orlando is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games against teams with winning records.  The Magic are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Take the Magic Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Philadelphia 76ers +7.5

The Brooklyn Nets are playing horrible right now amidst all of their trade rumors.  Nets' management has been open about trading Joe Johnson, Deron Williams and Brook Lopez to free up salary cap space.  They just traded Andrei Kirilenko and Jorge Guitierrez to the 76ers for Brandon Davies on Thursday.

Both Johnson and Lopez sat out a 105-80 loss to Chicago on Wednesday.  Both were expected to play coming into that game, and I wouldn't be surprised one bit if each just decided to sit amidst the trade rumors.  This is a team in serious disarray right now, and one that cannot be trusted to bring their "A" game to the floor on a nightly basis until these trade rumors blow over.

The Nets have been an absolute embarrassment here of late, which is probably what prompted the rumors.  They are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, with home losses to Atlanta by 23 and Cleveland by 22, as well as that road loss to the Bulls by 25.  So, they have been outscored by a combined 70 points in their last three and by an average of 23.3 points per game.

The 76ers, meanwhile, have shown a lot of fight here of late.  They have gone 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall to make backers a lot of money.  Six of their last nine games have been decided by 8 points or less.  That includes narrow losses to some good teams in Dallas (103-110) and San Antonio (103-109).

This has been a very closely-contested series here of late.  The 76ers are 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Nets as they have played them very tough.  In fact, each of the last four meetings between these teams have been decided by 8 points or less, and by a combined 19 points total.  The 76ers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight trips to Brooklyn.

Brooklyn is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 home games after failing to cover the spread in three of its last four coming in.  The 76ers are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Nets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.  Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The 76ers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  Roll with the 76ers Friday.

15* Cardinals/Rams NFL Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 41

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between St. Louis and Arizona.  These are two of the best defenses in the NFL up against two of the worst offenses in the league.  I'll gladly side with the UNDER 41 points in this NFC West rivalry game.

St. Louis has shut out back-to-back opponents.  It is playing as well defensively as any team in the NFL right now.  It held Oakland to 244 total yards and Washington to 206 total yards.  Since Chris Long returned from injury, this stop unit has taken its game to the next level.

One of the most shocking facts about how well this defense is playing is that it has not allowed an opponent to run a play inside its own 20-yard line in three of its past four games. The Rams have now gone 128 minutes and 20 seconds without allowing an opponent to score. Since Week 7, the Rams have 34 sacks, which is the most in the league over that period of time.

Arizona ranks 3rd in the NFL in scoring defense, giving up just 18.3 points per game.  It has allowed 19 or fewer points in five of its last six games overall.  It has been relying on its defense all season, and that stop unit is the only reason it has a 10-3 record right now.  It's certainly not because of the offense.

Arizona ranks 23rd in the league in total offense at 325.3 yards per game.  It has been even worse with Drew Stanton at quarterback here of late.  The Cardinals have been held to 18 or fewer points in each of their last four games.  They are averaging a mere 13.0 points per game in their last four.

St. Louis hasn't been any better offensively.  It ranks just 27th in the league in total offense, averaging only 317.2 yards per game this season.  Yes, the Rams have been putting up some decent scoring numbers here of late, but that has been mostly due to their defense creating easy opportunities.  Arizona only averages 1.0 turnovers per game and won't be giving up easy opportunities.

Yes, Arizona and St. Louis combined for 45 points in their first meeting in a 31-14 Cardinals victory at home.  However, the Cardinals scored two defensive touchdowns over the last 5 minutes to push the final combined score over the number.  The Rams managed just 244 total yards while the Cardinals had 335.  I'll take my chances that there won't be two defensive touchdowns in the rematch.

Arizona is 12-4 to the UNDER as an underdog over the last two seasons.  St. Louis is 6-0 to the UNDER in December games over the last two years.  The UNDER is 21-5-1 in Rams last 27 December games dating back further.  The UNDER is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in this series.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Cavs/Thunder TNT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City -2.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight in what will be a raucous atmosphere for the home team.  This will be just the second home game all season where both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have been healthy.

The first went very well as the Thunder dismantled the Bucks 114-101 on Tuesday as 10-point favorites.  I was on them in that game, and I'm on them again here for many of the same reasons.

The Thunder are now at full strength health-wise with Durant and Westbrook back.  Their time away allowed several role players on this team to grow their games, which will only make them stronger as a team going forward.  They have won five of their last six games coming in.

Cleveland is overvalued here due to its eight-game winning streak coming into this game.  This streak followed a 6-7 start.  It has mostly come against a very weak schedule as the wins have come against the Magic, Wizards, Pacers, Bucks, Knicks, Nets and Raptors (twice).  The Thunder are the best team they have played since a home loss to San Antonio on November 19th.

The Cavs are 14-29 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  Oklahoma City is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 after failing to cover the spread in 3 of its last 4 games coming in.  The Thunder are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  OKC is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games.  The home team is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  Bet the Thunder Thursday.

Note - I still recommend a play on the Thunder -6.5 with Lebron James out.

15* CBB In-State Rivalry Play on Colorado -5.5

The Colorado Buffaloes are a team I circled as one of the most underrated teams in the country coming into 2014-15.  They returned four starters from last year's team that made the NCAA Tournament, and they didn't even enter the season in the Top 25.

Colorado went 16-2 at home last season where it scored an average of 77.2 points per game on 46.5% shooting.  It has picked up right where it left off at home, going a perfect 5-0 straight up and 3-1 ATS while outscoring opponents by an average of 17.8 points per game.  All five of its home wins have come by at least 9 points, including wins over Auburn (90-59), Drexel (65-48), Air Force (68-53) and San Francisco (72-55).

The Buffaloes have gotten great production from all four of their returning starters.  Jeff Scott (16.6 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 2.0 bpg) is a future NBA talent.  Askia Booker (12.6 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 2.9 apg), Xavier Johnson (11.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg) and Wesley Gordon (6.7 ppg, 5.9 rpg) are the other three returning starters who have played well.

Colorado State is one of the most overrated teams in the country at this point in the season due to its 8-0 start to 2014-15.  Well, that 8-0 start has comea gainst an extremely soft schedule.  Its eight wins have come against Montana, Georgia State, Mercer, Missouri State, Pacific, UC-Santa Barbara, UTEP and Northern Colorado.

This will be the first true road game of the season for the Rams, which is a spot where teams usually tend to struggle.  Remember, this is a team that went just 16-16 last year, and I don't believe they are that much better with three starters back from that team.

Colorado is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three home meetings with Colorado State.  It has won 70-61, 90-83 and 75-56 in its last three home meetings, respectively, as all three have come by 7 points or more.

Colorado State is 2-12 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Rams are 0-8 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games over the last two seasons.  The Rams are 3-12-1 ATS int heir last 16 non-conference games.  Colorado State is 5-21-2 ATS in its last 28 games following a win.  The Buffaloes are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss.  Colorado State is 5-16 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.  Take Colorado Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Iowa -3

The Northern Iowa Panthers are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are a real threat to challenge Wichita State for the Missouri Valley Conference Title this season, and that's no joke.

This is a Northern Iowa team that went just 16-15 last year, but one that will be one of the most improved in the country in 2014.  That's because it returns all five starters from last year and almost all of its key reserves as well.

The starters back are G Matt Bohannon (9.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg last year), F Marvin Singleton (3.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg), F Seth Tuttle (15.4 ppg, 8.0 rpg), G Wes Washpun (8.3 ppg, 3.5 rpg) and G Deon Mitchell (12.1 ppg, 2.3 rpg).

Also back are Jeremy Morgan (6.0 ppg, 2.7 rpg) and Nate Buss (10.6 ppg, 5.0 rpg).  The Panthers have also added in Virginia transfer Paul Jesperson and four other redshirts, and I expect them to make their first NCAA Tournament since 2011.

The Panthers are off to a great start at accomplishing that feat.  They are 8-0 to this point in the season and have just recently moved into the Top 25.  That includes wins on a neutral court over VA Tech (73-54) and Northwestern (61-42), as well as a road win at Stephen F. Austin (79-77).

Northern Iowa is one of the best defensive teams in the country, and defense travels with you.  It is giving up just 55.2 points per game on 38.1% shooting.  It is scoring a mediocre 67.7 points per game, but has been efficient in making 46.1% of its shots.

Denver is improved as well off a 16-15 campaign last year with four returning starters this year.  However, it is just 4-3 to start the season with its four wins coming against Idaho State, Coppin State, New Orleans and Texas A&M Corpus Christi. 

The Pioneers have been blown out against the three best opponents they have played in St. Mary's (62-78), Belmont (57-78) and Wyoming (42-68).  If they can't hang with those teams, they stand little chance of keeping this game close against the Panthers tonight.

Northern Iowa is 8-1 ATS vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game over the last three seasons.  The Panthers are 28-12 ATS in their last 40 road games following four or more consecutive wins.  Denver is 6-17 ATS off a non-conference game over the last three years.  Northern Iowa is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning record.  The Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  The Pioneers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Roll with Northern Iowa Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +5

I really like the mental and physical state of the Orlando Magic coming into this one.  They have had three days' rest since last playing on Saturday and will be well-rested and ready to go.  This extra time has allowed their best player, Nikola Vucevic, to get healthy.

Vucevic has missed the last four games, but he's probably to return tonight.  He and the rest of these players are going to want revenge after losing the first two meetings of the season with the Washington Wizards by a combined 12 points.  They lost 98-105 on the road and 93-98 at home.

Washington, on the other hand, will have a hard time getting motivated to face a team that it has already beaten twice.  That's especially the case with a bigger game against the Clippers on deck.  Plus, the Wizards are the more tired team as this will be their 3rd game in 4 days.  That includes a double-OT win over Boston (133-132) at home Monday.

Orlando has been playing well of late even without Vucevic.  It has gone 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  It went on the road and beat Phoenix (93-90), Utah (98-93) and Sacramento (105-96), while also suffering a one-point loss at Golden State (97-98), which currently owns the league's best record.

The Wizards are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  Washington is 0-4 ATS in its last four after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game.  The Magic are 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a winning record.  Orlando is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS win.  Bet the Magic Wednesday.

15* Louisville/Indiana ESPN No-Brainer on Indiana +12

The No. 4 Ranked Louisville Cardinals are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They returned just two starters from a team that went 31-6 last year and certainly will not be as good in 2014-15.

Those two returning starters are Chris Jones (10.2 ppg, 2.3 rpg) and Montrezl Harrell (14.0 ppg, 8.4 rpg), who are good ones.  However, the losses of Russ Smith (18.2 ppg, 3.3 rpg) and Luke Hancock (12.3 ppg, 2.6 rpg) cannot be overstated.

Louisville has pretty much beaten up on a soft schedule en route to a 7-0 start.  Two of its three closest wins have come against Big Ten opponents in Minnesota (81-68) and Ohio State (64-55).  I believe that Indiana is better than both Minnesota and Ohio State this year.

The Hoosiers will be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014-15.  They returned two starters this year, including their top scorer from last season in Yogi Ferrell (17.3 ppg, 3.9 apg last year), who just does everything for this team.

Ferrelly (17.2 ppg, 5.4 apg, 3.4 rpg) has picked up where he left off last year.  James Blackmon Jr. (19.5 ppg, 5.1 rpg) is one of the best freshmen in the country.  He is hitting 54.2% from 3-point range.  Troy Williams (12.2 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and Robert Johnson (11.1 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 3.9 apg) have also helped give the Hoosiers balanced scoring among their starting lineup.

Indiana has gotten off to a 7-1 start this season.  It has beaten two of the better teams in the country along the way.  It topped SMU 74-68 at home despite being a 1-point underdog in that contest.  It also throttled Pittsburgh 81-69 at home as only a 2.5-point favorite.

I really like this matchup for the Hoosiers.  Their offense is explosive in averaging 88.4 points per game on 52.4% shooting.  They do not turn the ball over, only averaging 12 turnovers per game.  That's huge because Louisville thrives on forcing turnovers in its pressing scheme.  It forces 20 turnovers per game. 

The Hoosiers have tremendous guards and will not be phased by the press one bit.  In fact, I expect them to beat it with regularity and to get some easy buckets as a result.  Ferrell, Blackmon Jr. and Johnson are all guards who take care of the basketball and can fill up the score sheet.

Louisville is 6-19 ATS in its last 25 vs. explosive offensive teams that score 84 or more points per game.  Tom Crean is 38-22 ATS off two straight wins by 10 points or more in all games he has coached.  The Cardinals are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  Louisville is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Indiana Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5

To say it's going to be a rowdy atmosphere in Oklahoma City tonight would be a massive understatement.  The Thunder faithful will be out in full fledge tonight to support Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.  This will be the first home game of the season where both of these superstars have suited up.

The Thunder have gone 4-1 in their last four games overall.  Westbrook has played in four of those games, while Durant has played in the last three.  These two have showed little rust.  Wesbrook is averaging 23.7 points, 6.5 assists and 5.3 rebounds, while Durant is averaging 21.7 points.  They'll both only continue to get stronger as the season goes on.

Milwaukee is overvalued at this point in the season due to its surprising 11-11 start.  It has started to show a lot of vulnerability in its last five games as the schedule has ramped up.  It has lost four of its last five games with its only win coming against Miami.  It was beaten handily at Dallas 102-125 on Sunday, and a similar beat down can be expected at the hands of the Thunder tonight.

OKC is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Milwaukee in which both Durant has played.  It has won by 16, 13, 10 and 20 points in those four games for an average margin of victory of 14.8 points per game.  Three of those four wins came on the road, with the 16-point victory coming at home.

The Thunder are 7-0 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive underdogs this season.  Oklahoma City is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games after failing to cover the spread in three of its last four games coming in.  The Thunder are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Bucks are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 trips to Oklahoma City.  Roll with the Thunder Tuesday.

20* Villanova/Illinois ESPN GAME OF THE WEEK on Villanova -4

The Villanova Wildcats are one of the best teams in college basketball, but somehow they continue to go under the radar.  They should be much more than a 4-point favorite tonight against Illinois in this showdown inside Madison Square Garden.

The Wildcats quietly went 29-5 last year and won the Big East regular season title with a 16-2 record.  With four starters back from that team, they are arguably better in 2014-15.  They have opened the season a perfect 8-0 and are currently the No. 7 ranked team in the country.

The four returning starters are Darrun Hilliard (14.3 ppg, 3.6 rpg last year), JayVaughn Pinkston (14.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg), Ryan Arcidiacono (9.9 ppg, 3.5 apg) and Daniel Ochefu (5.7 ppg, 6.1 rpg).  What has been amazing about this start is that the Wildcats have been much more balanced this year and have gotten contributions elsewhere.

Dylan Ennis (12.2 ppg, 4.4 rpg this year) leads the team in scoring.  Hilliard (10.5 ppg) and Pinkston (8.9 ppg, 6.1 rpg) haven't had to do as much.  Kris Jenkins (9.1 ppg) and Josh Hart (8.9 ppg, 5.4 rpg) have joined Ennis as key contributors that maybe not many expected they would be coming into the season.

The Wildcats have not only played cupcakes, either.  Their wins over VCU (77-53) and Michigan (60-55) on neutral courts prove that they are for real.  They are scoring 75.4 points per game and allowing just 55.7 points per contest, outscoring the opposition by nearly 20 points per game on the season.

Illinois was expected to be improved in the Big Ten this season after going 20-15 last year.  That's because they returned all five starters from that squad.  Unfortunately for them, Tracy Abrams (10.3 ppg, 3.2 apg) suffered a season-ending knee injury in November and is out for the season, giving them essentially four returning starters.

Rayvonte Rice (15.9 ppg, 6.0 rpg last year) is their best returning starter by far.  But Nnanna Egwu (6.9 ppg, 6.0 rpg), Malcolm Hill (4.4 ppg, 2.4 rpg) and Kendrick Nunn (6.2 ppg) are counted as their other three returning starters, which is not very impressive in my book.

Illinois has gotten off to a solid 7-1 start this season, but it has come against mostly weak competition.  Its seven wins have come against the likes of Georgia Southern, Coppin State, Austin Peay, Brown, Indiana State, Baylor and American.  Its lone loss came in its only true road game in a 61-70 setback at Miami, which is the best team it has played yet.  Villanova is better than Miami.

Villanova is a sensational 44-19 ATS in its last 63 games overall.  The Wildcats are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 non-conference games.  Villanova is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. Big Ten foes.  Bet Villanova Tuesday.

25* Monday Night Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Falcons +13

The Atlanta Falcons have been playing their best football of the season of late. They have won three of their last four games with their only loss coming on a last-second field goal to Cleveland (24-26). They have even won their last two road games with victories over the Bucs (27-17) and Panthers (19-17). They also beat the NFC West-leading Cardinals 29-18 at home last week in an effort that shows they can play with anyone.

The Falcons racked up a whopping 500 total yards on a very good Arizona defense last week. They also limited the Cardinals to just 18 points and 329 total yards. They have held three of their last four opponents to 18 points or fewer, so the defense is improving. Matt Ryan completed 30 of 41 passes for 361 yards and two touchdowns against the Cardinals. Steven Jackson had one of his best games as a Falcon, rushing for 101 yards on just 18 carries.

Green Bay is in a massive letdown spot here. It played in arguably the biggest game in the NFL in Week 13 against the Patriots, and it came away with a 26-21 home victory. It’s simply going to be hard for them to bring the same kind of emotion to this game. It will need to play almost a perfect game to put the Falcons away by two touchdowns or more, which is what it would take to cover this ridiculous 13-point spread. The Packers are simply a public team that the public backs no matter what, forcing the oddsmakers to set this number higher than it should be.

Atlanta is fully capable of keeping up with Green Bay in a shootout. It is putting up 24.2 points and 374.0 yards per game to rank 9th in the NFL in total offense. It is only slightly behind the Packers, who rank 8th in total offense at 377.9 yards per game. The Packers are going to surrender points in this one because their defense simply isn’t that good. They rank 25th in the league in total defense, allowing an average of 366.8 yards per game.

Obviously, Atlanta is just 5-7 on the season. However, it is in a tie for first place in the NFC South, so it has everything to play for at this point in the season. The Falcons are getting treated like a 5-7 team with this 13-point spread, too. They aren’t getting treated like the team they are right now, which is one that has won three of their last five games with their two losses coming by a combined three points to playoff contenders in Detroit (21-22) and Cleveland (24-26).

The Falcons are a perfect 8-0 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards per play in two consecutive games over the last two seasons. They are winning by an average of 7.1 points per game in this spot. The Packers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a losing record. The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five December games.

Plays against favorites of 10.5 or more points (GREEN BAY) – after three or more consecutive wins, in the second half of the season are 40-15 (72.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plays against favorites of 10.5 or more points (GREEN BAY) – after beating the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in the second half of the season are 30-9 (76.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Falcons Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Boston Celtics +9

This is a home-and-home situation tonight between the Celtics and Wizards.  I backed the Celtics are 4-point underdogs with success yesterday as they beat the Wizards 101-93 at home.

I know that the Wizards will be out for revenge tonight in this back-to-back situation, but how many points is revenge worth?  I don't believe it's worth as many points as the oddsmakers have put into this spread.  Asking the Wizards to win by double-digits to cover the spread is asking too much.

That's especially the case with the way the Celtics are playing right now.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, beating Detroit (109-102), LA Lakers (113-96) and Washington (101-93).  I believe the Celtics are one of the most underrated teams in the league.

Boston has played a pretty brutal schedule during its 7-11 start and has several close losses against playoff teams along the way.  Seven of its 11 losses have come by 7 points or less, including road losses to Dallas (113-118) and Atlanta (105-109), as well as home losses to Toronto (107-110), Cleveland (121-122), Phoenix (114-118), Portland (88-94) and Chicago (102-109).

Washington, on the other hand, is way overvalued do to its 13-6 start to the season.  Its schedule has been much easier.  Its 13 wins have come against Orlando (twice), Milwaukee (twice), New York, Indiana (twice), Detroit, Cleveland, New Orleans, Miami, LA Lakers and Denver.  It only has one win against a team (Cleveland) that currently has a winning record.

The Celtics are 11-2 ATS in road games against good shooting teams that make at least 46% of their shots over the last two seasons.  Boston is 15-5 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 60% to 70% over the last three years.  The Celtics are 13-4 ATS in road games when playing on back-to-back days over the last two seasons.  Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Roll with the Celtics Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers PK

The Indiana Pacers are showing excellent value tonight as a pick 'em against the Atlanta Hawks.  This team has done a great job of staying competitive despite all of the injuries early in the season, and they are finally getting healthy now.

David West recently returned from injury to give the lineup a big boost.  The Pacers come in undervalued due to having lost four in a row, but those four all came on the road against currently playoff contenders Cleveland, Phoenix, Portland and Sacramento.  Add road games at Dallas and San Antonio, and this has been a brutal stretch over the past seven games.

Atlanta comes in overvalued due to its current six-game winning streak.  Its schedule has been much easier during this stretch, and it has done most of its damage at home this season.  It is 9-2 at home compared to just 4-4 on the road.

The Hawks are in a very tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days, which is one of the most difficult situations in the NBA.  The Pacers, meanwhile, will be well-rested and ready to go since they come in on two days' rest.  They'll be highly motivated to put an end to this four-game losing streak as well.

Plays against road underdogs (ATLANTA) - poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season, after allowing 85 points or less two straight games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1996.  Indiana is 8-0 ATS following a non-conference game this season.  The Pacers are 52-32 ATS in their last 84 games following a loss, including 6-1 ATS in their last seven following a defeat.  Take the Pacers Monday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on UCLA -9.5

The UCLA Bruins have certainly been tested in the early going in 2014.  Their two losses have come to Oklahoma and North Carolina, which are two of the best teams in the country.  I believe they are undervalued right now because they lost to those two teams.

The Bruins have taken care of all other comers.  Their six wins this year have all come by 12 points or more, including a 77-63 home win over a very good Long Beach State team as a 10-point favorite, and a 73-45 home win over CS-Fullerton last time out as a 16-point favorite.

San Diego (4-4) has no business only catching single-digits against UCLA tonight.  The Toreros are coming off an 18-17 season last year and aren't much better in 2014.  They have lost to the four best teams they have played, and their four wins have come against SE Missouri State, Florida A&M, Western Michigan and Princeton.

The Bruins are 5-0 at home this season where they are outscoring foes by 24.6 points per game.  Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UCLA) - team from a major division 1-A conference against a team from a second tier conference, off a home blowout win by 20 points or more are 70-32 (68.6%) ATS since 1997. 

The Bruins are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games as a favorite.  The Toreros are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Sunday games.  The Bruins are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  The Toreros are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after scoring less than 50 points in their previous game.  Roll with UCLA Sunday.

15* Seahawks/Eagles NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Seattle +1

Mark Sanchez has actually played pretty well in his four starts with the Eagles, leading them to a 3-1 record. However, it has mostly come against a soft slate of defenses. The Panthers rank 17th in total defense, the Packers rank 25th, the Titans rank 30th, and the Cowboys rank 23rd. So, his four starts have come against four teams that rank in the bottom-half of the NFL in total defense.

Now, Sanchez will be up against the best defense in the NFL. Indeed, the Seahawks rank 1st in the league in total defense, allowing 285.8 yards per game. They are also 3rd against the pass (199.4 yards/game) and 5th against the run (86.3 yards/game), so they have no weaknesses. I look for Sanchez to really struggle in this one and to make some mistakes that will cost his team the game.

Seattle is surging right now, having won five of its last six games overall. It is now just one game behind Arizona for first place in the NFC West, and I fully expect it to win the division by season’s end with a strong finish. The Seahawks have allowed three points each in back-to-back wins over Arizona (19-3) and San Francisco (19-3) by the same margins. Both the Cardinals and 49ers have beaten the Eagles this year to hand them two of their three losses.

The Seahawks also allowing an average of 184.0 yards per game in their wins over the Cardinals and 49ers.  They have been absolutely dominant against the run in recent weeks.  They have held four of their last five opponents to under 65 rushing yards, and they've forced 11 turnovers in their last six.  Both Bobby Wagner and Kam Chancellor recently returned from injury to give the D a boost.  They should be able to shut down LeSean McCoy and the Eagles' running game.  Also, opposing quarterbacks have a 65.0  rating in their last six games, with only Eli Manning throwing for more than 200 yards.

Sanchez was 9 of 22 for 124 yards in his only matchup against the Seahawks and Pete Carroll, his former college coach.  Sanchez lost that game 28-7 as a member of the Jets back in 2012.  Carroll will have an advantage here because he coached against Chip Kelly in college and knows the system that Kelly likes to run.  Seattle has also won its last three meetings with the Eagles in Philadelphia.

While the Eagles have a very good offense, their defense leaves a lot to be desired. They are giving up 23.7 points and 366.2 yards per game this season to rank 24th in the league in total defense. Russell Wilson and company should have their way with this stop unit Sunday afternoon. Wilson leads a solid Seattle offense that is putting up 24.8 points and 361.0 yards per game this season. This unit is better than it gets credit for, and they don't make mistakes as Wilson has not thrown an interception in any of his last three games.

Seattle is 6-0 ATS when playing a team with a winning percentage greater than 75% in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Seahawks are a sensational 10-1 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons. Seattle is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 vs. a team with a winning record. Philadelphia is 5-13-1 ATS in its last 19 vs. a team with a winning record. The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series.  Take the Seahawks Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Boston Celtics +4

The Boston Celtics are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA right now due to their 6-11 start.  I have no doubt this team is better than its record would indicate as it has played several of the top teams in the NBA very close all year.

Its 11 losses have comes to Houston, Dallas (by 5), Toronto (by 3), OKC, Cleveland (by 1) Phoenix (by 4), Memphis, Portland (by 6), Chicago (by 7), San Antonio and Atlanta (by 4).  All those close losses show that they can play with anyone.

Boston has finally been rewarded with a couple wins in a row for its solid play.  It beat Detroit 109-102 and followed that up with a 113-96 beat down of the Lakers last time out.  I look for it to extend its winning streak to three games tonight.

Washington (13-5) is one of the most overrated teams in the NBA right now due to its record.  It has simply benefited from playing 11 home games compared to 7 road games.  It is just 4-3 on the road this season, getting outscored by 2.4 points per game away from home.  Its four road wins have come against Orlando, New York, Indiana and Milwaukee, four of the worst teams in the NBA.

Plays on underdogs (BOSTON) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games are 99-54 (64.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Boston is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. Eastern Conference foes.  The Celtics are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  Bet the Celtics Sunday.

25* AFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bengals/Steelers UNDER 47

These division rivalry games always tend to be lower-scoring because teams know each other so well having played each other twice a season.  That becomes even more the case later in the year after teams have so much film on their opponents to study.  That extra film work certainly benefits the defenses a lot more than the offenses at this point in the season.  Both teams know each others' personnel, playing style and offensive systems.

Unders in division matchups have gone 575-521 (52.3%) since 2003.  To compare, unders in non-division matchups have gone 883-976 (47.5%) during that same span.  These two stats just show that this theory has some real proof, but a closer look at late-season games with higher totals in divisional matchups is where the real money is made.

Unders in divisional matchups with a total set of 39 and below in December or later are only 48-59 (44.9%) since 2003.  However, unders in divisional matchups with a total set of 39.5 and above in December or later are 161-111 (59.2%) since 2003.  That is some time-tested evidence that I believe carries some real weight here.

This total between Cincinnati and Pittsburgh has been set at 47, which is an enormous number.  Although the sample size is very small, the under in Pittsburgh/Cincinnati games has a record of 5-2 since 2003 when they meet after the start of December, compared to 7-8 in all other meetings during that same span.

I believe this number has been inflated due to Pittsburgh's 35-32 shootout with New Orleans last week.  Obviously, the Saints have a horrible defense but one of the best offenses in the league.  So, a high-scoring game was likely.  Cincinnati has a much worse offense but a better defense than New Orleans.

The Steelers rank 12th in the NFL in total defense, while the Bengals rank 10th in the league in scoring defense.  I believe these are two of the better stop units in the league.  While the Steelers are improved offensively this season, the Bengals are just 18th in the league in total offense.

However, Pittsburgh has done most of its offensive damage at home.  It has been a completely different story on the road.  The Steelers are only averaging 18.3 points per game away from home this season.  They managed just 10 points in Cleveland, 13 points at the New York Jets, 17 points at Jacksonville, and 6 points at Baltimore.

Cincinnati has been playing in some real low-scoring games of late.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Cincinnati's last four games overall.  It has combined with each of its last four opponents for 37 or fewer points, and an average of 31.5 points per game.  That includes 37 combined points at New Orleans on November 16th as the Bengals limited the Saints to just 10 points in a 27-10 win.

Pittsburgh & Cincinnati have combined for 42 or fewer points in six of their last seven meetings.  The only exception was a 30-20 win by the Steelers last year at home in a fluke high-scoring game.  The Bengals only had 279 yards, while the Steelers only had 290 yards in that game.  They have combined for an average of 36.7 points per game in their last seven meetings, which is 10.3 points per game less than this posted total of 47.

Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (PITTSBURGH) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, versus division opponents are 79-37 (68.1%) over the last five seasons.  Cincinnati is 7-0 to the UNDER vs. excellent ball control teams that average 32 or more possession minutes per game after 8-plus games over the last three seasons.

The Bengals are 7-0 to the UNDER vs. good passing teams that average 7.0 or more yards per attempt in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Bengals last four games overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Bengals last six games in the second half of the season vs. poor defensive teams that allow 6.0 yards per play or more.  These last four trends combined for a perfect 24-0 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Redskins +3

This is one of my favorite situations in the NFL. Whenever one team is coming off a blowout victory, while another team is coming off a blowout loss, there’s usually a ton of value to be had in backing the team coming off the blowout loss, and fading the one coming off the blowout win. I believe that’s precisely the case in this matchup as the Rams should not be 3-point road favorites over the Redskins in this one.

Washington is probably the most underrated team in the NFL at this point of the season due to its 3-9 record. This team has not quit as it keeps fighting. It only lost 13-17 at San Francisco two weeks ago, and it had its chances against Indianapolis last week. It got to within four points in the second half, but could not hang on as the Colts ran away with it late for a 49-27 victory.

That loss to the Colts wasn’t nearly the blowout that the final score would indicate. The Redskins were only outgained by 62 yards for the game and really should have only lost by single-digits. The difference was that the Colts scored touchdowns when they got into the red zone, not once having to settle for a field goal. The Redskins, on the other hand, had to settle for too many field goals and turned the ball over on downs too many times.

Conversely, the Rams’ 52-0 win over the Raiders wasn’t nearly the blowout that the final score would indicate. Usually, to win by that many points, you would have to dominate the box score and likely outgain a team by roughly 300 yards. That wasn’t the case at all as the Rams only outgained the Raiders by 104 yards for the game. St. Louis only racked up 348 total yards in the win. The difference was that the Raiders committed five turnovers and gave the Rams too many easy scoring opportunities.

The numbers indicate that the Redskins are the better team, period. The Redskins rank 8th in the league in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 26.2 yards per game. Of the top 17 teams in yardage differential, a whopping 15 of them have winning records on the season. That’s the kind of elite company the the Redskins are in this year, and their record should be much better than it is.

To compare, St. Louis ranks a woeful 27th in yardage differential. It is getting outgained by 40.3 yards per game, and it has been outgained by at least 60 years in seven of its last eight games overall.  The Rams are at least as bad as their 5-7 record would indicate, and probably worse. They have no business laying a field goal on the road this week given these numbers. But, the only reason they are is because the public perception on them is at an all-time high right now. It’s not warranted.

Washington is a much better team with Colt McCoy under center. He is completing a sensational 75.3 percent of his passes for 819 yards with four touchdowns and only one interception this year.

The Rams are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. excellent passing teams that average at least 7.5 yards per attempt. St. Louis is 12-28 ATS in its last 40 vs. NFC East opponents.  The Rams haven't won two games in a row all season as they have followed up every win with a loss.  Bet the Redskins Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10

Double-digit underdogs in the NFL have been a very good bet over time. The Buccaneers represent one of my favorite double-digit dogs this week because there are a plethora of them. They have been much better than their 2-10 record would indicate this season as they have rarely been blown out. I believe they will stay within double-digits of the Lions Sunday afternoon.

Eight of the Buccaneers’ 10 losses this season have come by 10 points or less. So, they have been in every game they have played aside from the blowout losses to the Ravens and Falcons. They are certainly better than a 2-10 team, but they just haven’t been rewarded in the win column. This team continues to put their hardhats on and come to play every Sunday, and I see no reason that will be any different in this game.

I really like what I’ve seen from the Buccaneers in recent weeks. They have actually outgained four of their last five opponents. They outgained Cleveland by 35 yards in a 17-22 loss, Atlanta by 51 yards in a 17-27 loss, Washington by 7 yards in a 27-7 win, and Chicago by 163 yards in a 13-21 loss. The only exception was last week as they were outgained by just 25 yards by the Bengals in a 13-14 home loss.

They had every chance to win that game, right down until the final few snaps when they were looking to get within field goal range for a game-winner.  It was another tremendous performance for the defense, which has been playing lights-out for weeks.  Indeed, the Bucs have allow an average of 18.3 points and 299.7 yards per game over their last six contests.

Detroit comes into this game overvalued off a blowout win over Chicago on Thanksgiving Day. I still consider the Lions to be one of the better teams in the league, but asking them to win by more than 10 points to cover this spread is asking too much. The betting public must be quick to overlook the two ugly losses by the Lions prior to that win over the Bears. They were outgained by 90 yards in a 6-14 road loss to Arizona, and by 104 yards in a 9-34 loss at New England.

Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series between Detroit and Tampa Bay. The road team has won four straight and eight of the last 11 meetings in this series. The Buccaneers went into Detroit and came away with a 24-21 road victory last year. This has also been a very closely-contested series. Eight of the last nine meetings have been decided by 7 points or less.  The Bucs have won five of their last six road meetings with the Lions.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TAMPA BAY) – bad team – outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after a loss by 6 or less points are 81-37 (68.6%) ATS since 1983. Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TAMPA BAY) – after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games are 34-13 (72.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.

The Bucs are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games after having lost six or seven of their last eight games coming in. The Lions are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring 30 points or more in their previous game. The Buccaneers are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Detroit is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS win.  Take the Buccaneers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New York Jets +6

Neither of these teams really have much to play for at this point in the season. However, both showed that they will continue to fight as the Vikings beat the Panthers last week, while the Jets had the Dolphins dead in the water before losing on a last-second field goal. So, I do expect both teams to show up in this game as well despite the circumstances. From a value standpoint, it’s clear that the Jets are the right side in this one.

Minnesota has no business being this heavily-favored against a team that is pretty much its equal in New York. The reason the Vikings are laying 6 points is because the public perception on them is high right now after their 31-13 win over the Panthers. Well, that game was far from the blowout that the final score would indicate. The Vikings simply benefited from blocking two punts and returning both of them for touchdowns.

You can’t expect to get two special teams touchdowns every week, and that’s what it took for the Vikings to blow out the hapless Panthers last week. The Panthers have lost six straight games and are a complete mess right now. The Vikings were even outgained by 138 yards by the Panthers last week. They were outgained by 225 yards in a 13-21 loss to Chicago two weeks ago as well. The numbers show that this team simply isn’t that good.

Minnesota ranks a woeful 28th in the league in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 42.1 yards per game. New York actually ranks a respectable 18th in yardage differential, only getting outgained by 10.5 yards per game.  The Jets are only one of three teams (Redskins, Saints) who rank in the top 18 in yardage differential who currently have losing records.  They are obviously better than their record would indicate, just like the Saints and Redskins.

These numbers tell me that the Jets are actually the better team and should probably be favored on a neutral field. The Vikings should maybe be a slight favorite at home, but certainly not a favorite of 6 points. That 6 points could easily come into play here, and thus the Jets are the value play and the smart bet.

I like the fight I saw from the Jets last week as they simply manhandled the Dolphins at the line of scrimmage. They rushed for 277 yards on 49 carries and held the Dolphins to just 74 yards on 18 carries. They actually outgained the Dolphins by 35 yards in the game and probably should have won. They clearly have not quit fighting for head coach Rex Ryan.

After rushing for 277 yards on the Dolphins, they should be able to find a ton of success on the ground against the Vikings again this week. That’s because Minnesota has allowed 122 or more rushing yards in four consecutive games. It has given up an average of 148.3 rushing yards per game during this stretch, including 157.0 per game in its last three.

The Jets rank a solid 7th in the league in total defense, only giving up 322.0 yards per game. The Vikings are going to struggle to move the football and put up points without getting aided by fluke plays in special teams or on defense. That’s because they rank just 30th in the NFL in total offense, averaging a mere 300.8 yards per game. They are only averaging 253.7 yards per game in their last three contests, so Teddy Bridgewater hasn’t been the savior that many thought he’d be.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY JETS) – after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games are 34-13 (72.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays on road underdogs or pick (NY JETS) – after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

The Jets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. The Vikings are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win. Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win by more than 14 points.  New York is 8-1 in nine all-time meetings with Minnesota.  It has won 7 straight meetings.  Roll with the Jets Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Bulls +2.5

The Chicago Bulls are playing very well right now having one three of their last four games with all three victories coming on the road.  The only loss was a 129-132 (2 OT) setback at home to one of the best teams in the Western Conference in the Dallas Mavericks. 

This solid play by the Bulls has coincided with a healthy return of Derrick Rose.  The former MVP has averaged 16.2 points and 5.1 assists per game this season and continues to get better with each game.  Pau Gasol (19.9 ppg, 11.4 rpg) has proven to be a huge addition this year.  The Bulls will be amped up to play the team with the best record in the NBA in front of a raucous home crowd Saturday night.

While the Warriors have the best record in the NBA, I certainly do not believe they are the best team.  They have simply benefited from playing a very easy schedule.  They come in way overvalued due to their 11-game winning streak, which comes to an end tonight.

A closer look at this streak shows that it has come against cake opponents.  The 11 wins have come against the Nets (8-10), Bobcats (5-15) twice, Lakers (5-15), Jazz (5-15), Thunder (6-13), Heat (9-10), Magic (8-14) twice, Pistons (3-15) and Pelicans (8-9).  All 11 wins have come against teams with losing records who have a combined 57-112 (33.7%) record in 2014.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 9-1 straight up in 10 meetings since 2009.  Chicago is 5-0 straight up in its last five home meetings with Golden State.  It has won those five games by an average of 18.6 points per game.  Roll with the Bulls Saturday.

15* FSU/Georgia Tech ACC Championship ANNIHILATOR on Florida State -4

The Florida State Seminoles (12-0) certainly created expectations from oddsmakers this season that they could not live up to after winning the BCS Championship last year. Despite going a perfect 12-0 straight up, they have gone a woeful 3-9 against the spread this season. The betting public has taken notice and has been quick to fade them because of it. This is one of the lowest spreads we’ve had an opportunity to back Florida State at as a result. That’s why I believe there is value in backing the Seminoles as only 4-point favorites in the ACC Championship.

Georgia Tech (10-2), meanwhile, comes into this game way overvalued due to going a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall. That includes a win against Georgia in overtime last week in a game that I backed the Yellow Jackets as 12-point underdogs. That was a game where the Bulldogs were deflated after Missouri had won on Friday to punch its ticket into the SEC Championship, which prevented Georgia from playing in it. I simply believe the Yellow Jackets caught Georgia at the right time, and now they are getting too much respect from the books after that win.

All the Seminoles do is win. They extended their winning streak to 28 games with their 24-19 victory over Florida last week. I realize that they have six victories by 6 points or less this season, and that’s a big reason why I have faded them with regularity up to this point when they have been a big favorite. However, I have backed them a couple of their small spreads, and they have come through for me with a 42-31 win at Louisville as a 3.5-point favorite, and a 30-26 win at Miami as a 2-point favorite. Basically, all they have to do is win this game and they’ll cover considering this is only a 4-point spread and it likely won't come into play.

What I like about this play as well is that Florida State has played a gauntlet of a schedule down the stretch and is more battle-tested. It has faced six straight tough games against Notre Dame, Louisville, Virginia, Miami, Boston College and Florida. Georgia Tech’s last six games have come against UNC, Pitt, Virginia, NC State, Clemson and Georgia. It also faced Clemson without star QB Deshaun Watson, while FSU had to play Clemson with Watson and without Jameis Winston.

This is a very good matchup for the Seminoles because their strength defensively is stopping the run. They are giving up a respectable 146 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry on the season. Georgia Tech is a primary running team in the triple-option. Although it is an improved passing team this season, any threat it had of moving the football through the air ended against Georgia.

That’s because top receiver DeAndre Smelter suffered a knee injury in the loss to Georgia and is doubtful to play Saturday. This is a bigger loss than I believe the oddsmakers are factoring in. Smelter leads the team in receptions (35), receiving yards (715) and receiving touchdowns (7). To compare, second place in all three categories is Darren Waller (16 receptions, 255 yards, 4 TD). That just shows you how important Smelter is to the offense.

This Georgia Tech defense hasn’t exactly been dominant, either. It is giving up 24.1 points, 388.7 yards per game, and 6.1 yards per play. That is rather mediocre when you consider its opponents average 405 yards per game and 5.8 per play against all teams they have faced this year. The Yellow Jackets have simply won the time of possession this year, which has kept their suspect defense off the field for the majority of games.

That won’t happen against this high-powered FSU offense that averages 34.6 points and 430.3 yards per game on the year. Those numbers are made even more impressive by the fact that opposing defenses that they’ve faced only giving up 25.3 points and 357 yards per game. The Seminoles are also averaging 6.3 yards per play against teams that give up only 5.2 yards per play.  This is still an elite offense under Winston.

Florida State is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 games when the line is +3 to -3. The Seminoles are 37-20 ATS in their last 57 games following two more consecutive ATS losses. Florida State is 6-0 ATS in road games in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. The Seminoles are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 neutral site games. Florida State is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 December games.  Take Florida State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Alabama +8

After going just 13-19 last year, the Alabama Crimson Tide are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014-15.  They are off to a solid start at 5-1 this season with their only loss coming on the road to nationally ranked Iowa State 74-84.

The reason I'm high on the Crimson Tide this year is because they return four starters from last season.  They are Shannon Hale (8.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg last year), Levi Randolph (9.6 ppg, 3.8 rpg), Rodney Cooper (7.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg) and Retin Obasohan (9.5 ppg, 3.0 rpg).

Randolph (19.5 ppg, 6.2 rpg) and Cooper (12.3 ppg, 3.7 rpg) have taken their games to the next level this season.  Tulanetransfer Ricky Tarrant (14.0 ppg) had 20 games of 20-plus points before coming to Alabama and has picked up right where he left off.

Xavier is a team I have pegged to take a step back this year off a 21-13 season a year ago.  That's because it lost three starters in Semaj Christon (17.0 ppg, 4.2 apg Last year), Justin Martin (11.7 ppg, 5.2 rpg) and Isaiah Philmore (9.3 ppg, 5.0 rpg).  Two starters are back in Dee Davis (7.7 ppg, 4.7 apg) and Matt Sainbrook (10.6 ppg, 7.4 rpg), but the Musketeers obviously lose most of their scoring from last year.

Xavier has losses to UTEP (73-77) and Long Beach State (70-73) this year that are obviously concerning.  I believe it is overvalued because it is 4-0 at home this season with four blowout wins.  However, those four wins came against Northern Arizona, Long Beach State, Stephen F. Austin and Murray State, which is not impressive at all in my book.

These four returning starters for Alabama will be out for revenge after losing a tight one 74-77 at home to Xavier last season.  The Crimson Tide are 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Alabama is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five Saturday games.  Xavier is 1-5 ATS in its last six Saturday games.  The Musketeers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. loss.  Bet Alabama Saturday.

25* Conference Championship GAME OF THE YEAR on Alabama -14.5

The Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) are the best team in college football, period. They have been the most impressive team based on the schedule that they have played and the numbers that they have put up this season. Their only loss came at Ole Miss by a final of 17-23 back when the Rebels were healthy and one of the best teams in the country. After beating a tough Auburn team 55-44 last week, this game against Missouri will feel like a cake walk.

Alabama has arguably its best offense in school history. It is putting up 36.7 points and 487.1 yards per game on the season. Blake Sims has had a tremendous year at quarterback, and bounced back nicely from a slow start against Auburn last week to lead them back from a double-digit second half deficit. Sims is completing 63.0 percent of his passes for 2,974 yards with 23 touchdowns and seven interceptions, while also rushing for 275 yards and six scores.

While many consider the Crimson Tide to be down defensively this year, that simply has not been the case. They are giving up just 16.9 points and 312.0 yards per game against opposing offenses that average 29.5 points and 415 yards per game. They are holding their opponents to roughly 13 points and 103 yards per game less than their season averages. That’s the sign of an elite defense, and one that will shut down this suspect Missouri offense.

The Tigers, in my opinion, are the single-most overrated team in the entire country. There is no way they should be 10-2 right now when you consider they are only outgaining teams by an average of 34.4 yards per game.   To compare, Alabama outgains the opposition by 175.1 yards per game.  That's the sign of an elite team and one deserving of being in the SEC Championship.

The Tigers have simply been an opportunistic team that has taken advantage of opponent’s mistakes all year, but their luck runs out this week against the best team they have faced all season.  The second-best team they have played was easily Georgia, and they lost 34-0 to the Bulldogs at home on October 11th.

Missouri simply does not have the firepower offensively to do anything against this Alabama defense, which won’t allow it to keep up on the scoreboard. It ranks just 98th in the country in total offense, averaging 365.9 yards per game on the season. Maty Mauk is just an average quarterback who is completing 53.5 percent of his passes on the season. He will have one of the worst games of his career against this Alabama defense.

I look for this game to play out similarly to the 42-10 beat down the Crimson Tide put on the Tigers in their most recent meeting in 2012. They racked up 533 yards of offense while limiting the Tigers to just 129 total yards in the win. They outgained the Tigers by a whopping 404 total yards for the game. That contest was even played in Missouri, and this one will be in the Georgia Dome, where the Crimson Tide are used to being at season’s end.

The Crimson Tide are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games. The Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven December games. Last year, Auburn beat Missouri 59-42 in the SEC Championship while outgaining the Tigers 677-534 for the game. This Alabama team is better than that Auburn team of a year ago, while this Missouri team isn’t as good as last year’s Tigers squad.  Bet Alabama Saturday.

15* Big 12 Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma State +21

Oklahoma quarterback Trevor Knight will not play Saturday after missing the past two games with a head injury. He was knocked out of a 14-48 home loss to Baylor on November 8th and hasn’t returned since. The Sooners haven’t needed him in their last two games against Big 12 bottom feeders Texas Tech (42-30 win) and Kansas (44-7 win), but they aren’t about to blow out Oklahoma State without Knight.

Backup Cody Thomas has been terrible in Knight’s place. He went 10-of-20 for 133 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions against Texas Tech, and 3-of-13 for 39 yards without a touchdown or an interception against Kansas. The Sooners were able to get away with being one-dimensional against the Red Raiders and Jayhawks, but that won’t be the case against the Cowboys.  Thomas is completing just 41% of his passes on the season.

Oklahoma State’s biggest weakness this season has been its quarterback play. That’s why head coach Mike Gundy decided to make a switch prior to the Baylor game a couple weeks ago. Mason Rudolph played very well in a hostile atmosphere in Waco, throwing for 281 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions in the 28-49 road loss as a 33-point underdog. Rudolph will get the start again Saturday, and I believe this offense will continue to perform better with him under center.  If they can stay within 21 points of Baylor on the road, which beat Oklahoma by 34 in Norman, then they can stay within 21 of the Sooners on the road.

This Oklahoma defense has shown plenty of holes all season, especially in conference play. It is giving up 28.2 points and 414.5 yards per game against Big 12 opponents this season. That’s not the sign of an elite team as this defense has been overrated all season. The Sooners were the preseason favorites to win the Big 12, and they have fallen flat on their faces. While the Sooners have nothing to play for at this point except perhaps a better bowl game, the Cowboys need one more win to become bowl eligible.

Oklahoma State would consider its season a success if it were to beat Oklahoma to get bowl eligible. The Cowboys have played the Sooners very tough in recent years, and I expect that to continue in 2014. They beat the Sooners 44-10 at home in 2011, and each of their last three losses to the Sooners have come by 9 points or less, and by a combined 18 points total. They want revenge after the Sooners spoiled their bid to win the Big 12 with a 33-24 upset last year.

Plays against home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (OKLAHOMA) – with a good rushing D – allowing 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry, after allowing 1 or less rushing yards/attempt last game are 23-3 (88.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Oklahoma State is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of two straight games. The Cowboys are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. The Sooners are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.  Roll with Oklahoma State Saturday.

15* Arizona/Oregon Pac-12 Championship No-Brainer on Oregon -13.5

The Oregon Ducks (11-1) want revenge on the Wildcats after losing their last two meetings. I believe this line would be much bigger had the Ducks won both of them, but since it’s not I feel we are getting a discount on them as less than two-touchdown favorites. They were favored by more than 20 points in their last two meetings with the Wildcats, which is a good indication that we are getting them at a discount here.

Oregon has been on a mission over the last two months since that 24-31 loss to the Wildcats. It has gone a perfect 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall, winning all seven games by 12 points or more, including five of those by 24 or more. It just cannot be stopped offensively right now as it has scored at least 42 points in all seven of those contests. If it gets to 42 in this game, that will be enough to win by two touchdowns or more.

The Ducks are putting up 45.9 points and 539.5 yards per game to rank 4th in the country in total offense. Marcus Mariota came back for one more season to win a championship, and he's been the best leader this team could ask for. Mariota is completing 68.6 percent of his passes for 3,470 yards with a ridiculous 36-to-2 TD/INT ratio. He has also rushed for 636 yards and 11 scores while averaging a whopping 10.4 yards per pass attempt this season.

Arizona has a strong offense as well, but the way that its defense has played all year gives it little chance of keeping this game close against a motivated Oregon squad. The Wildcats are allowing an average of 434.7 yards per game to rank 96th in the country in total defense. That’s not the stop unit of a championship-caliber team. The Wildcats have to feel fortunate just to make the Pac-12 Championship.  That is a win for them in itself.

Oregon has put up huge numbers on Arizona in all their recent meetings. It has put up at least 446 yards of total offense in each of the last eight meetings with Arizona, including 500-plus four times. I just believe that the Wildcats can do nothing to slow down this Oregon offense, and the only way the Ducks don’t cover is if they beat themselves like they did in the last two meetings. They aren’t likely to beat themselves a third straight time, especially not with the way they are playing right now.

Oregon is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 vs. awful pass defenses that allow 275 or more passing yards per game. The Ducks are 9-1 ATS off two consecutive covers as a favorite over the last two seasons. Oregon is 12-1 ATS after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game over the last two seasons. The Wildcats are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games on grass. Arizona is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 vs. a team with a winning record. Oregon is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games on grass.  Take Oregon Friday.

15* Florida/Kansas ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Florida +7.5

The Florida Gators are undervalued due to their 3-3 start to the 2014-15 season.  They should not be catching 7.5 points to the Kansas Jayhawks tonight, and I'll back them as a result.

Florida had big expectations coming into the year despite only returning one starter.  This young, talented bunch hasn't played up to par in the early going, but a lot of that has had to due with injuries.  The Gators are finally getting healthy.

Florida could easily be 5-1 right now, too.  Two of its three losses came to very good Miami (69-67) and Georgetown (66-65) teams by a combined three points.  The other was a 64-75 loss to highly-ranked UNC.  So, the Gators are obviously battle-tested right now.

Billy Donnovan is one of the best head coaches in the country.  He is actually enjoying this slow start because it has allowed him to get his player's attention.  They will respond with a big effort tonight against Kansas, especially since they last played on November 28th and have had ample time to correct their mistakes and prepare for the Jayhawks.

"Right now, the truth is slammed in our face, which I think is great," coach Billy Donovan told the school's official website. "A lot of times, in your nonconference scheduling, when you're not playing against high-level competition, it's hard to get to the truth. For these guys ... it's bringing them closer to the truth in finding out who they are and who we are."

Kansas only brings back two starters from last year and lost its best two players in Andrew Wiggins and Joel Embiid.  It is off to a 5-1 start this season, but I haven't been that impressed with this team.  They lost 40-72 to Kentucky to have their true colors show.  Their best win came in a 61-56 victory over a Michigan State team that isn't that good in 2014-15.

Florida is 64-38 ATS in its last 102 games after failing to cover the spread in two more consecutive games coming in.  The Gators are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games following three or more consecutive home games.  The Jayhawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. SEC foes.  The Gators are 5-2 ATS in their last seven vs. Big 12 opponents.  Take Florida Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -3.5

The Boston Celtics get the nod Friday as small 3.5-point home favorites against the hapless Los Angeles Lakers.  I look for them to roll to victory tonight to easily get the win and cover.

Boston (5-11) has been better than its record would suggest, but it has simply fallen victim of a very tough schedule to this point.  Its 11 losses have come to Houston, Dallas, Toronto, Oklahoma City, Cleveland, Phoenix, Memphis, Portland, Chicago, San Antonio and Atlanta.  All but one of those teams has a winning record.

Even in those 11 losses, the Celtics have been mostly competitive with a chance to win almost all of them.  Seven of the 11 losses have come by 7 points or less, including five by 5 points or fewer.  The Celtics have taken care of teams they are supposed to beat like the Lakers.

Los Angeles hasn't been all that competitive in its 5-14 start.  Seven of its 14 losses have come by double-digits, including a 95-11 road loss to Washington on Wednesday.  The Lakers are giving up 111.1 points per game this season and getting outscored by 7.4 points per game.  They are giving up 112.2 points per game on the road and getting outscored by 9.3 points per game away from home.

The home team has won four of the last five meetings between these squads.  Los Angeles is 20-42 ATS in its last 62 games after covering two of its last three ATS coming in.  The Lakers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine Friday games.  Roll with the Celtics Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Denver Nuggets +4.5

The Denver Nuggets are playing as well as almost anyone coming into this game with the Washington Wizards.  I believe there is a ton of value in backing them as 4.5-point underdogs here in a game I fully expect them to win outright.

Denver has gone 7-2 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games overall.  That includes road wins over the Cavaliers (106-97), Lakers (101-94) and Jazz (103-101), as well as home wins over OKC (107-100), New Orleans (117-97), Chicago (114-109) and Phoenix (122-97).  Its only losses came at Phoenix (112-120) and at home against Portland (103-105).

The Nuggets have now scored 101 or more points in each of their last nine games overall as their offense is hitting on all cylinders. In fact, dating back further, they have scored at least 100 points in 15 of their last 16 games.

Washington comes in overvalued here after having won three in a row.  It is not at full strength right now, either.  Both Paul Pierce and Nene are questionable to play tonight with injuries, while Martell Webster remains out.

Denver has won six of its last eight meetings with Washington, including both meetings last year.  Plays against favorites (WASHINGTON) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after a blowout win by 15 points or more are 73-33 (68.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.

The Nuggets are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Denver is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. Western Conference opponents.  The Wizards are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Bet the Nuggets Friday.

20* NIU/Bowling Green MAC Championship ANNIHILATOR on Bowling Green +7

If this game was played last week, I have no doubt that this line would be a lot smaller than it is right now. Northern Illinois (10-2) is coming off a huge 31-21 win at Western Michigan as an 8-point underdog, while Bowling Green(7-5)  is coming off a 41-24 home loss to Ball State despite being a 10-point favorite. Before you are quick to judge those results, you must understand the mental make-up of the teams going into them.

Northern Illinois knew that a win would get it in the MAC Championship. Western Michigan knew that a win would not get it in because it had lost to Toledo earlier in the season, so the Rockets held the tiebreaker. Toledo was a 23-point favorite against Eastern Michigan last Friday and rolled to victory. So, the Broncos essentially knew that they would not be playing in the MAC Championship even with a win because Toledo wasn’t going to lose to EMU.

Bowling Green already clinched a spot in the MAC Championship a couple weeks ago. It knew that a loss to Ball State would have no bearing on whether or not it would be playing in the title game for a second straight year, and it simply did not show up last week. Ball State rolled to a 17-point victory that was of no consequence to the Falcons. The betting public is going to be quick to judge those results more than they should.

Now, we are getting the Falcons at a great value as 7-point underdogs in this game. I’m more interested in how this team played when it had something to play for, and a closer look at those results shows that this is a quality team. The Falcons went 5-1 during a six-game stretch from the end of September to early November. Their only loss was to Western Michigan, which is arguably the best team in the MAC. They had three wins by double-digits during that stretch, including a 27-10 win at Akron and a 31-13 win at Ohio.

This Bowling Green defense was really improving prior to the Ball State game, which again, we cannot count. It had allowed less than 400 yards in four consecutive games prior to Ball State. That includes just 388 total yards to a high-powered Toledo offense that averages 486.2 on the season. I really do believe the Falcons have the better defense in this one and are fully capable of slowing down this NIU offense.

Northern Illinois’ biggest weakness is its stop unit. It really hasn’t done a whole lot to stop anyone all season. It is giving up 24.2 points and 390.9 yards per game against teams that have averaged 22.8 points and 364 yards per game. So, it is allowing 1.4 points and 27 yards per game more than opposing offenses average on the season.

The Huskies will have their hands full against a Bowling Green offense that has really been impressive this year. It is putting up 30.8 points and 441.6 yards per game behind a balanced attack that averages 181 yards on the ground and 261 through the air. NIU averages 30.6 points and 433.3 yards per game, so I’d argue that Bowling Green actually has the better offense because it has played the tougher schedule this year.

In the MAC Championship Game last year, Bowling Green rolled to a 47-27 victory over NIU. It simply did whatever it wanted to against a weak NIU defense, amassing 574 total yards in the win. I know the Huskies will be out for revenge, but that’s not a big enough factor to be too concerned. The Huskies even have a worse defense this year than they did last year, and their offense isn’t nearly as strong with the loss of QB Jordan Lynch.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BOWLING GREEN) – in conference games, off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite of 10 or more are 49-21 (70%) ATS since 1992. Bowling Green is 11-2 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last three seasons. The Falcons are 8-1 ATS in road games in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit loss at home. Bowling Green is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS loss. The Huskies are 1-7 ATS in their last eight December games.  Bet Bowling Green Friday.

15* Pelicans/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +8.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are one of the most underrated teams in the league right now due to their mediocre 8-8 start, while the Golden State Warriors are one of the most overrated teams due to their 15-2 start.  This combination has created some great line value for us tonight to pounce on the Pelicans as 8.5-point underdogs.

Golden State has won 10 straight games coming in, and now it has a huge target on its back.  It has created expectations for itself from oddsmakers that it simply cannot live up to tonight, and that started to show last game.  The Warriors only beat the Magic 98-97 as 14.5-point home favorites Tuesday night.

A closer look at this winning streak shows that it has more to do with a lack of competitions than anything.  Indeed, the 10 wins have come against the likes of the Nets, Hornets (twice), Lakers, Jazz, Thunder, Heat, Magic (twice) and Pistons.  All of those teams are .500 or worse with nine of those games coming against teams with losing records.  That's no impressive at all in my book.

What was impressive to me was New Orleans' 112-104 win over Oklahoma City on Monday night.  Both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook played for the Thunder, and played well, too.  The Pelicans had lost three straight to quality teams coming into that game and showed some resolve and what they were capable of.  I wouldn't be surprised to see them win outright tonight, let alone cover the 8.5-point spread.  This is one of the most talented teams in the NBA.

Plays on road teams (NEW ORLEANS) - after going under the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 92-45 (67.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Pelicans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The road team is 11-5-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  Take the Pelicans Thursday.

15* Arkansas/Iowa State ESPN 2 National TV KNOCKOUT on Arkansas +7.5

The Arkansas Razorbacks are one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014-15.  They are off to a perfect 6-0 start that has them currently sitting as the No. 18 ranked team in the land.  This squad is the real deal, and they will show it tonight against No. 20 Iowa State.

Arkansas went 22-12 last year and was snubbed from the NCAA Tournament, which has lit a fire under these players.  You could see this fast start coming considering it returned three starters from last year and several key reserves.

The three starters back are each of their top three scorers in Kye Madden (12.7 ppg, 2.8 apg last year), Bobby Portis (12.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg), and Michael Qualls (11.6 ppg, 4.5 rpg).  Also back are key reserves Alandise Harris (9.0 ppg, 3.3 rpg), Anthlon Bell (7.2 ppg) and Moses Kingsley (4.0 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 49 blocks).

The Razorbacks have not only been winning, they have been dominating.  Five of their six wins this season have come by 16 points or more.  The only exception was an impressive 78-72 road win at SMU as a 4-point underdog.  That SMU team is the real deal, and it shows that the Razorbacks can go on the road and beat a good team like Iowa State.

The Razorbacks also have one of the deepest teams in the country.  They have a whopping nine players averaging at least 5.2 points per game on the season.  Leading the way has been Qualls (15.3 ppg, 5.2 rpg), Portis (14.5 ppg, 6.2 rpg), Bell (13.2 ppg) and Madden (11.2 ppg, 6.0 apg, 3.2 rpg).

Arkansas is only one of four Division 1 teams to score at least 78 points in every game, and it leads the SEC at 90.0 points per game.  What I really love about this team is that it is unselfish.  Indeed, the Razorbacks rank among the nation's leaders with 20.7 assists per game.

If you have followed me the last few seasons, you would know that I have backed Iowa State with regularity.  However, I simply believe it is overvalued in this spot tonight.  This is a very tough spot for the Cyclones, and a great one for the Razorbacks.

Iowa State just played on Tuesday in a 96-59 win over Lamar.  That means it has had just one day to prepare for Arkansas.  The Razorbacks last played on Sunday in a 94-77 win over Iona.  That means they have had a full three days to prepare for Iowa State.  That extra preparation and rest is the biggest reason I'm backing Arkansas tonight.

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (IOWA ST) - after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game against opponent after two straight wins by 15 points or more are 43-14 (75.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Razorbacks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Roll with Arkansas Thursday.

15* Cowboys/Bears NFC Thursday ANNIHILATOR on Dallas -3.5

Simply put, the Chicago Bears have nothing to play for at this point in the season, while the Cowboys have everything to play for. At 5-7, the Bears could win out and still not make the playoffs. They had their two-game winning streak halted with an ugly 17-point loss to the Lions last week, and since they failed to get back to .500, they realize that their chances of making the postseason are slim to none.  That realization will make it hard for them to get back up off the mat tonight.

While the Cowboys’ 23-point loss to the Eagles was concerning, I believe that was only a minor blip on the radar for this team. They’ll have no problem getting back up off the mat knowing that all of their goals are still in front of them. This is essentially a must-win game for them because they play three of their final four games on the road and cannot afford to fall to losing teams like the Bears. That motivational edge is the biggest reason as to why I’m siding with the Cowboys in this contest.

The Cowboys have played their best football on the road this season. They are 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread in road games, outscoring opponents by an average of 8.6 points per game in the process. They have beaten the Titans (26-10), Rams (34-31), Seahawks (30-23), Jaguars (31-17) and the Giants (31-28) away from home this year.

Now, they get to face a Chicago team that has not played well at home all season. It is just 2-3 in home games this year with ugly losses to Buffalo (20-23), Green Bay (17-38) and Miami (14-27). Its only two home wins came against lowly Minnesota (21-13) and Tampa Bay (21-13). It was even outgained by 163 yards against the Buccaneers and never should have won that game.

The Bears have been thoroughly dominated in the box score over their last six games. They have been outgained by at least 103 yards in five of their last six games overall. They were outgained by 205 yards in a 17-34 loss to the Lions, by 163 yards in that 21-13 win over Tampa Bay, by 140 yards in a 14-55 loss to Green Bay, by 103 yards in a 23-51 loss to New England, and by 169 yards in a 14-27 loss to Miami.

Dallas boasts an elite offense that is putting up 25.2 points and 376.8 yards per game on the season, including 30.4 points and 378.6 yards per game on the road. It should have its way with a Chicago defense that allows 28.1 points and 376.3 yards per game on the season. The Bears rank 31st in the league in scoring defense and 26th in total defense. They stand little chance of slowing down Tony Romo, DeMarco Murray, Dez Bryant and company.

The Bears are 13-37 ATS in their last 50 games vs. excellent offensive teams that average at least 6.0 yards per play. The Cowboys are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games following a loss by 21 or more points.  The Bears are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 home games.

Chicago is 0-7 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 7 or more yards per attempt in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. Dallas is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games after allowing 175 or more rushing yards in its last game.  Chicago is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after having won two of its last three games coming in.  These three trends combine for a 25-1 system backing Dallas.  Take the Cowboys Thursday.

20* Cavs/Knicks NBA on TNT GAME OF THE MONTH on New York +8

Yes, the New York Knicks are 4-15 this season and have really stunk up the joint for the most part.  However, this team isn't nearly as bad as its record would indicate, but it is undervalued at this point because of that poor record.  We're getting excellent value on the Knicks at home Thursday night.

The Knicks have lost five straight coming into this game, but easily could have won four of those, and they were all against good teams.  They only lost by 5 at Houston (86-91), by 7 at Dallas (102-109), by 7 to Miami (79-86), and by 5 to Brooklyn (93-98) during this stretch.  They aren't going to lost by 8 or more to Cleveland tonight.

Conversely, the Cavaliers come into this game overvalued because they have won four straight games coming in.  Well, all four of those came at home and against some suspect competition.  They beat Orlando, Washington, Indiana and Milwaukee, including just a 3-point win over the Bucks (111-108) last time out.  They don't just magically have everything figured out now after their 6-7 start.

The Cavaliers have not played well at all on the road this season.  They are actually getting outscored by an average of 3.0 points per game away from home, where they have played little to no defense.  They are giving up 104.0 points per game on 49.3% shooting in road games.

While the Knicks are just 3-7 at home, they are only getting outscored by 3.4 points per game.  They are playing better defense at home than on the road.  They are only allowing 94.5 points per game on 44.7% shooting at home. 

I also like the fact that Jose Calderon recently returned to the lineup to give the offense a major boost, and that J.R. Smith is expected to return tonight as well.  The Knicks did beat the Cavaliers 95-90 on the road back in the opener, and they are fully capable of pulling off the upset again tonight, let alone staying within 8 points.

The Knicks are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 Thursday games.  New York is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games.  The Cavaliers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.  Bet the Knicks Thursday.

15* UCF/East Carolina AAC Thursday No-Brainer on UCF +6.5

The UCF Knights (8-3, 6-1 AAC) have a chance to clinch a share of the American Athletic Conference Title with a win Thursday. They sit at 6-1 within the conference, tied with Cincinnati and only one game behind Memphis (7-1). ECU (5-2 AAC) already has its fate sealed as it will not be able to win the conference. That motivational edge certainly favors the Knights and is a big factor as to why I’ll be siding with them Thursday night as 6.5-point road underdogs.

UCF has won eight of its last nine games overall coming into this one with each of its last four wins all combing by 16 points or more. The only exception was a fluke 29-37 loss at Connecticut back on November 1st in a game they dominated, but ultimately lost due to committing four turnovers. They outgained the Huskies by 102 yards in that contest and should have won.

In fact, the Knights have outgained each of their last five opponents by at least 95 yards. They outgained SMU by 374 yards in a 53-7 win, outgained Tulsa by 305 yards in a 31-7 win, and outgained Temple by 284 yards in a 34-14 win in their three most impressive performances during this stretch. They also outgained South Florida by 95 yards last week in a 16-0 road victory.

If you’re a fan of defense like I am, then you’ll love what you’ve seen from this UCF stop unit this season. The Knights are giving up just 16.8 points and 271.2 yards per game on the season, ranking 4th in the country in total defense. That includes 15.0 points and 258.9 yards per game in conference play. In their last three games, the Knights have allowed a measly 4.7 points and 172.3 yards per game. They have what it takes on this side of the ball to slow down this high-powered ECU offense.

ECU isn’t nearly as dominant defensively as UCF. It is giving up an average of 25.1 points and 364.9 yards per game on the season against teams who only average 21.9 points and 343 yards per game. It has allowed 30.7 points and 433.0 yards per game in its last three coming in. That includes 54 points and 586 yards to Cincinnati, and 32 points and 388 total yards to Tulsa.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (UCF) – off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival against opponent after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS since 1992. ECU is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 games following a win.  ECU is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in two consecutive games. The Pirates are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 vs. a team with a winning record. ECU is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games overall.

UCF is 9-0 ATS after playing its last game on the road over the last two seasons. The Knights are 6-0 ATS in Thursday games over the last three seasons.  The Pirates are 0-4 ATS in their last four Thursday games.  These three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Knights.  Bet UCF Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SPECIAL on Utah Jazz +4

This play is more of a fade of the Toronto Raptors than a play on the Utah Jazz, who obviously haven't been great this season at 5-13.  The Raptors are just in a really tough spot here and I don't see them performing well because of it.

Toronto will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 8th game in 13 days.  That includes a double-overtime loss to the Lakers on Sunday as well as a 117-109 win at Sacramento last night against a Kings team that was playing without their best player in DeMarcus Cousins.

The Raptors are already short-handed right now as they are without their second-leading scorer in DeMar DeRozan (19.4 ppg).  They didn't do well without him against the Lakers, and they were fortunate to win last night against the Kings, who again were without Cousins.  The longer they go without him, the tougher it's going to be.  I believe it catches up with them tonight, as it did against the Lakers.

Utah comes in way undervalued due to its current six-game losing streak.  It has played a gauntlet of a schedule during this skid with losses to the Warriors, Pelicans, Bulls, Thunder, Clippers and Nuggets, who are all playoff contenders.  This will be only the 3rd game in 7 days for the Jazz, so they'll be well-rested and ready to go tonight to try and put and end to this skid.

The Jazz are 53-33 ATS in their last 86 home games off a loss to a division rival.  Utah is 151-117 ATS in its last 268 home games after failing to cover the spread in two of its last three.  The Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. Western Conference opponents.  The Jazz are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.  Utah is 5-1 ATS in its last six when playing on one days' rest.  Toronto is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 meetings with the Jazz, including 2-5 ATS in its last seven trips to Salt Lake City.  Take the Jazz Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night Line Mistake on UTEP +6

The UTEP Miners are my pick to win Conference USA in 2014-15.  They went 23-11 last season and return four starters from that squad.  I really love Tim Floyd's mentality as a defensive-minded head coach because he gets his players to go all out on that end of the floor.

The four returning starters are Julian Washburn (13.1 ppg, 3.5 rpg), C.J. Cooper (9.6 ppg, 3.0 apg), Vince Hunter (12.3 ppg, 6.5 rpg) and Matt Wilms (5.4 ppg, 3.5 rpg).  Cedrick Lang (6.5 ppg, 5.4 rpg) is a key returning reserve from last year's 21-win team.

I have been very impressive with UTEP's 4-1 start this season because it has come against such a difficult schedule.  It beat Washington State (65-52) and New Mexico State (77-76) at home, while also topping Princeton (62-56) and Xavier (77-73) on a neutral court.  Its lone loss came to Washington (65-68) on a neutral court by three points.

Hunter (18.4 ppg, 12.6 rpg) has become an absolute beast after winning the C-USA Freshman of the Year award last year.  He's one of the best players in the country that not too many know about.  Lang (12.6 ppg, 7.4 rpg), Washburn (10.6 ppg, 4.0 rpg) and Cooper (9.8 ppg, 4.4 apg) have all picked up where they left off last year as well.

Colorado State is way overvalued right now due to its perfect 6-0 start to the season.  This is a team that went just 16-16 last year and one that does return three starters, but it is not as good of a team at UTEP, yet it is getting treated like the better team with this 6-point spread.

The Rams' six wins have come against the likes of Montana (83-66), Georgia State (80-70), Mercer (75-62), Missouri State (76-61), Pacific (75-64) and UC-Santa Barbara (65-63).  I would argue that all six of Colorado State's opponents thus far are worse than at least four of the five teams that UTEP has played.  This will be by far the toughest test of the season for the Rams to this point.

UTEP is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games versus poor pressure defensive teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game.  The Miners are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 versus good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game.  UTEP is 8-1 ATS in all road games over the last two seasons.  The Miners are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss by 6 points or less.

Colorado State is 1-10 ATS after a game where it committed 8 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  The Rams are 11-28-2 ATS in their last 41 games overall.  Colorado State is 5-19-2 ATS in its last 26 games following a win.  The Rams are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.  These teams met twice last year with UTEP winning 82-74 at home and losing 58-62 on the road.  Bet UTEP Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets +9

The Brooklyn Nets are showing excellent value as a big home underdog to the San Antonio Spurs tonight.  The Nets did play last night in a 98-93 victory over the Knicks, but it's a short trip back home, which will lessen the second of a back-to-back factor.

Plus, this will still only be Brooklyn's 3rd game the past 7 days and 4th game in the past 11 days, so that will also soften the blow from being a back-to-back situation.  Add to that the fact that the Nets will be out for revenge from an 87-99 loss to Spurs on the road on November 22nd, and we have a really solid play here.

You also have to consider that the 87-99 loss to the Spurs was a tough situation for the Nets as they were playing the second of a back-to-back after winning in Oklahoma City the previous night.  It was also their 7th game in an 11-day span, so they were dead tired for that contest.

San Antonio is simply way overvalued here.  This is a team that is coming off a 109-103 win at Philadelphia last time out, and it is overvalued due to winning eight straight games coming in.  Asking it to go on the road and win by double-digits against a quality Brooklyn team to beat us is asking too much.

The home team has won seven of the last 10 meetings in this series, including a 103-89 victory for the Nets at home last year.  Brooklyn is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 home games when revenging a loss to an opponent of 10 points or more.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Nets Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -4.5

Both the Detroit Pistons and Boston Celtics have been struggling this season, but the Pistons have been worse.  They are just 3-15 on the year against a softer schedule than the Celtics, who are 4-11 on the season.

Yes, Boston has lost seven of its last eight games overall, but a closer look at the opponents tells the story.  Its seven losses have come to Cleveland (121-122), Phoenix (114-118), Memphis (100-117), Portland (88-94), Chicago (102-109), San Antonio (89-111) and Atlanta (105-109).  If that's not a gauntlet, I don't know what is.  Plus, the Celtics played most of those playoff contenders right down to the wire.

Detroit has lost nine straight coming in.  That includes home losses to Orlando (93-107), Milwaukee (88-104) and the LA Lakers (96-106), as well as a road loss to the Bucks (86-98).  As you can see, it has lost by double-digits to some really bad teams during this streak, so its problems have a lot more to do with being terrible than the schedule.  The following comments tell the story.

"Offensively, we just continue to be awful," coach Stan Van Gundy said. "We're really messed up right now as a team. ... We have a lot of dilemmas, a lot of guys feeling pressure, but we're really not right mentally right now. That's got to change before anything else does."

Detroit is 12-30 ATS when the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last two seasons.  The Pistons are 1-8 ATS after playing a home game this season.  Detroit is 3-12 ATS off a home loss by 10 or more points over the last two seasons.  The Pistons are 1-7 on the road this year, getting outscored by 6.6 points per game. 

Detroit is 0-8 ATS in its last eight vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes.  The Pistons are 6-23 ATS in their last 29 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. the East.  Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last five when playing on 0 days' rest.  Detroit is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 when playing on 0 days' rest.  Bet the Celtics Wednesday.

15* Michigan State/Notre Dame ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Notre Dame -2

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014-15.  They were a big disappointment last year as they went just 15-17 and lost several key players throughout the season due to injury and suspension.

Star guard Jerian Grant was suspended after the first 12 games last year due to an academic issue.  With Grant, the Fighting Irish were 8-4, and without him they were 7-13.  He averaged 19.2 points and 6.2 assists per game prior to his suspension.

Grant is one of three returning starters for the Fighting Irish this season.  The other two are key contributors in G/F Pat Connaughton (13.8 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 3.0 apg) and F Zach Auguste (6.7 ppg, 4.3 rpg).  Also back are key reserves Demetrius Jackson (6.0 ppg) and Steve Vasturia (5.0 ppg).

Notre Dame is off to an impressive 6-1 start this season with its only loss coming to Providence (74-75) by a single point on a neutral court.  All six of its wins have come by 13 points or more, including an 81-68 victory as a 5-point favorite against a very good UMass team on a neutral floor as well.

Grant has picked up right where he left off last season, averaging 18.4 points and 7.1 assists per game.  Auguste (15.3 ppg, 6.4 rpg), Connaughton (13.7 ppg, 7.7 rpg) and Jackson (11.9 ppg) have all taken their games up a notch as well.  V.J. Beachem (8.4 ppg) and Vasturia (7.1 ppg) have been solid role players to boot.

Michigan State is clearly down this season as it already has two losses.  Yes, those losses came to Duke (61-71) and Kansas (56-61), but it also barely beat Navy (64-59) in the opener.  That's also a Kansas team that was blown out by Kentucky 40-72 and is clearly down this year as well.

It was obvious that the Spartans were going to struggle early considering they lost three starters from last year in Gary Harris (16.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg), Adreian Payne (16.4 ppg, 7.3 rpg) and Keith Appling (11.2 ppg, 3.0 rpg).  Also, top recruit Javon Bess is sidelined with an injury right now.

Plays on a favorite (NOTRE DAME) - off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, with two more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first ten games of the season are 41-14 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Notre Dame is 8-1 ATS off a home win scoring 85 or more points over the last three seasons.  The Fighting Irish are 14-4 ATS off two straight blowout wins by 20 points or more since 1997.  Michigan State is 19-35 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 since 1997.  The Spartans are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  The Fighting Irish are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. Big Ten foes.  Take Notre Dame Wednesday.

15* ACC/Big Ten Challenge PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia Tech +10

The Penn State Nittany Lions are certainly an improved team this season with four returning starters from last year.  They are off to a 6-1 start this season, but they are overvalued because of their record.  They easily could be 3-4 right now instead of 6-1.

Indeed, the Nittany Lions have four wins by 8 points or less this season.  The only two exceptions were home wins over lowly Morgan State (61-48) and Fordham (73-54).  They lost to Charlotte (97-106), and barely beat Cornell (72-71), USC (63-61), Akron (78-72) and Bucknell (88-80).  If all those teams can stay within single-digits of the Nittany Lions, so can the Hokies.

Virginia Tech came into the season with very little expectations after going just 9-22 last year, including 2-16 in ACC play.  The outlook is much better in 2014-15 thanks to the signing of Buzz Williams, who has gone 153-86 in his seven years as a head coach with Marquette.

He steps into a good situation as the Hokies return four starters and a solid sixth man from last year.  Back are Adam Smith (11.0 ppg), Ben Emelogu (10.5 ppg), Devin Wilson (9.2 ppg, 4.8 apg) and Joey van Zegeren (6.4 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 1.7 bpg).  The sixth man is C.J. Barskdale (8.1 ppg, 4.2 rpg).

Williams also signed a tremendous recruiting class that will step in and held right away.  Smith (14.3 ppg) and Van Zegeren (10.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 2.0 bpg) have taken their games to the next level.  Justin Bibbs (12.2 ppg) and Ahmed Hill (8.3 ppg) have played well as freshmen right away.  Bibbs is a top-75 recruit from the previous class, while Hill is a top-60 recruit who score 3,000 points in HS and followed Buzz from Marquette.

The Hokies are off to a solid 4-2 start this season.  They did lose to Appalachian State (63-65) and Northern Iowa (54-73), but that Northern Iowa team is one of the most underrated in the country and will challenge Wichita State for the Missouri Valley Title.  The Hokies are coming off their two best performances of the year with a 78-63 win over Miami Ohio as a 4-point favorite, and an 83-63 home victory against Morgan State.

Penn State is 4-13 ATS after a game where it failed to cover the spread over the last two seasons.  The Hokies are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games following three or more consecutive home games.  The Nittany Lions are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games.  Penn State is 2-5 ATS in its last seven vs. ACC foes.  The Nittany Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games.  Penn State is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 games overall.  It has no business being favored by double-digits tonight.  Roll with Virginia Tech Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Charlotte Hornets +4.5

The Chicago Bulls are going to be a very tired bunch tonight as they take on the Charlotte Hornets.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight after losing to Dallas 129-132 in double-overtime last night.  I simply do not believe they'll have much left in the tank.

Charlotte, on the other hand, comes into this game well-rested and ready to go.  It last played on Saturday, so it has had three days of rest in between games.  It will also be highly motivated to put and end to a nine-game losing streak that has seen five of those losses come by single-digits, including four by 5 points or fewer.

The Hornets have played the Bulls very tough in recent meetings.  Indeed, each of the last four meetings were decided by 6 points or less.  The Hornets won their last home games against the Bulls by a final of 91-86 (OT) in their final meeting of 2014.  Couple their tough play against Chicago with the horrible spot for the Bulls, and that makes this an excellent play tonight.

The Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last five games when playing on no rest.  Chicago is 19-39-1 ATS in its last 59 when its opponent allows 100 points or more in its previous game.  The Bulls are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Chicago is 1-6 ATS in its last seven vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents. 

The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Hornets are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 vs. NBA Central division foes.  Charlotte is 20-7-2 ATS in its last 29 Wednesday games.  The Hornets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Take the Hornets Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Harvard -7

The Harvard Crimson are one of the best teams in the country that not too many folks know about.  They return three starters from a squad that went 27-5 last year and won the Ivy League with a 13-1 record.

Those three starters are Wesley Saunders (14.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 3.8 apg last year), Siyani Chanbers (11.1 ppg, 4.6 apg) and Steve Moundou Missi (10.5 ppg, 6.0 rpg).  Head coach Tommy Amaker has another talented, experienced squad in 2014-15 due to the return of these three guys.

I believe the Crimson came into the season overvalued, but after losing to Holy Cross 57-58 as a 10.5-point favorite on a neutral court, this team isn't getting the love it deserves right now.  I have seen plenty from them since that loss to know that they are still the team that I thought they'd be coming into the year.

They have since rolled over Florida Atlantic 71-49 as a 15.5-point favorite and Houston 84-63 as a 10.5-point favorite.  They also beat a very good UMass team 75-73 at home as a 7-point favorite last time out, failing to cover, which is another reason I believe this line has been set lower than it should be.

That's the same UMass team that beat Northeastern 79-54 as a 6-point home favorite on November 26th.  That wasn't the only troubling result for this Northeastern squad.  It also lost 44-66 to Navy on a neutral court as a 13-point favorite.  Those two results show that Northeastern doesn't belong on the same court as Harvard.

The Crimson are 14-5 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots over the last three seasons.  The Huskies are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning percentage greater than 60%.  The Crimson are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.

Harvard is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS loss.  The Crimson are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 non-conference games.  Harvard is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  Northeastern is 0-6 ATS after scoring 65 points or less in two straight games over the last two seasons.  Bet Harvard Wednesday.

15* Raptors/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 203.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Toronto Raptors and Sacramento Kings.  I believe it has a lot to do with the Raptors' 122-129 (OT) loss to the Lakers last time out.  The Lakers don't play any defense and that game was not a telling sign of what's going to happen tonight.

It was also the first game for the Raptors without leading scorer DeMar DeRozan (19.4 ppg).  Teams can usually get by for a game without their leading scorer, but over time it becomes much harder for the offense to do so.  DeRozan (groin) will miss this game as well and the offense will suffer without him.

Sacramento is dealing with an injury issue of its own to leading scorer DeMarcus Cousins (23.5 ppg, 12.6 rpg).  He has missed the last two games due to an illness and is questionable to return tonight.  The Kings only managed 85 points in an 85-97 loss to Memphis last time out.  Whether he plays or not, I still love this UNDER.

Both teams have been pretty solid defensively this season.  The Raptors are giving up 98.9 points per game on 45.9% shooting, while the Kings are allowing 100.6 points per game on 44.3% shooting.  Sacramento only allows 97.1 points per game on 44.7% shooting at home.  The Raptors' defensive numbers are a lot better if you exclude that overtime game against the Lakers last time out, too.

The UNDER is 6-1 in Raptors last seven games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Kings last seven home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Kings last four games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  These three trends combine for a 17-1 system backing the UNDER.  Also, the UNDER is 9-3 in Kings last 12 home games.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Mavericks/Bulls Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on UNDER 203.5

Rarely ever will you see a total set of greater than 200 points in a game involving the Chicago Bulls, who have been one of the league's best defensive teams since Tom Thibodeau arrived.  In fact, only twice all season have they had a total set of greater than 196.5 points.  Those came against the Nuggets and Celtics, who are two teams that play little defense and at a fast pace.

Both Chicago and Dallas rank in the middle of the league in pace this season.  They both rank in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency, and the Bulls are down lower than their normally would be at 9th, giving up 101.3 points per 100 possessions, but still solid nonetheless.

What really stood out to me when I looked into this game was how low-scoring the recent meetings between the Mavericks and Bulls have been.  They have combined for 198 or fewer points in each of their last seven meetings with a 6-1 record for the UNDERS.

They have combined for 191, 188, 198, 179, 176, 159 and 171 points in their last seven meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 180.3 combined points per game, which is roughly 23 points less than tonight's posted total of 203.5.  That fact alone shows that there is a ton of value in backing the UNDER in this game tonight.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (CHICAGO) - after a blowout win by 15 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more 3 straight games are 58-26 (69%) over the last five seasons.  Chicago is 14-4 to the UNDER in December home games over the last three seasons. 

The UNDER is 4-0 in Mavericks last four when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Bills last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Bulls last 10 vs. Western Conference foes.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Chicago.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* CBB Line Mistake GAME OF THE WEEK on Nebraska-Omaha +14.5

 This Nebraska-Omaha team is one that I had my eye on a lot last year and rode them with quite a bit of success.  They are an under-the-radar team because they still have one year left in their four-year reclassification to Division I, which means they can't be part of the Summit League, NCAA and NIT Tournaments.

Due to this fact, most of the betting public does not know about the Mavericks just yet.  They went 17-15 last season and pulled off some impressive upsets alone the way.  Now, they bring back three starters and a key reserve from that team and should be even better in 2014-15.

Those three starters are G CJ Carter (13.5 ppg, 3.4 apg last year), F Mike Rostampour (9.2 ppg, 7.5 rpg) and G Devin Patterson (10.1 ppg, 3.3 apg).  The key reserve is G Marcus Tyus (9.4 ppg, 2.1 rpg).

With Carter, Patterson and Tyler, the Mavericks are loaded at the guard positions to run head coach Derrin Hansen's up-tempo system.  Rostampour is a rebounding beast; he averaged 7.5 boards in just 20.7 minutes per game last year.  Throw in Wichita State transfer Jake White, who played in the Final Four against Louisville, and this has the makings of a dangerous club.

Just ask Marquette about it.  Nebraska-Omaha went into Marquette and won 97-89 as a 17-point underdog on November 22nd.  It followed that up with a game effort at Nebraska, getting the cover as a 14.5-point underdog in a 13-point loss.  Then, in its last game against Nevada, it rolled to a 78-54 home victory as a 5.5-point favorite.

Carter (16.6 ppg, 3.6 apg, 3.2 rpg)) and Patterson (16.4 ppg, 5.6 apg, 5.4 rpg) have really stepped up their games this year.  Tre-Shawn Thuran (10.8 ppg, 4.2 rpg) has provided a boost that was unexpected coming into the year.  Rostampour (9.8 ppg, 8.2 rpg) and White (9.0 ppg, 11.0 rpg) have been forces down low.  Tyus (8.4 ppg, 3.0 rpg) has continued his solid play off the bench.

Kansas State (3-3) is clearly down this season.  Two of its three wins have come at home against Southern Utah (96-68) and Missouri-KC (83-73) with the latter result providing a troubling sign of things to come for the Wildcats.

They have gone 1-3 in their last four games since, which included a 60-69 loss at Long Beach State as a 2.5-point favorite.  They did have a good showing in a 68-72 loss to Arizona on a neutral court, but their 47-70 loss to Pittsburgh last time out in that same tournament shows that this team has a long way to go.

The Mavericks are 10-2 ATS in non-conference games over the last two seasons.  Nebraska-Omaha is 6-2 ATS in its lst eight road games, and 5-1 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Summit league foes.  Bet Nebraska-Omaha Tuesday.

15* Timberwolves/Clippers Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +14

The Los Angeles Clippers were 5-4 heading into their seven-game road trip and not playing very well at all.  Well, they won six of their seven games during that trip with their only loss coming to Western Conference-leading Memphis.

"We made it a business trip," point guard Chris Paul said. "We got out of our own way. We played a little bit more free and really moved the ball. Most of all, our defense was pretty good."

Well, now I expect them to have a letdown after such a successful trip when they return home Monday.  That first game home after a long road trip is always tough on players.  They have so many obligations when they get back home that they can easily forget about basketball.  I don't believe the Clippers will play with the kind of focus it takes to put away Minnesota by more than 14 points Monday.

The Clippers have covered five of their last seven games, while the Timberwolves have failed to cover in eight of their last 11 games with one push.  The betting public has taken notice, which is the reason why this line is so inflated.  There's clearly value in backing the Timberwolves as such a massive dog here.

I know Minnesota is dealing with some injuries right now, but this is one of the deepest teams in the NBA and other players have stepped up.  Mo Williams is playing some of the best basketball of his career, and guys like Thaddeus Young (13.9 ppg), Andrew Wiggins (11.6 ppg), Corey Brewer (10.9 ppg) and Shabazz Muhammad (9.5 ppg) have stepped up their games.

Minnesota will be motivated to put an end to a 9-game losing streak to Los Angeles in this series.  While that is concerning, a closer look shows that it has rarely been blown out by the Clippers.  Indeed, The Clippers have only beaten the Timberwolves by more than 13 points once in those nine meetings.  The last four have all been decided by 10 points or less, including three by 4 or fewer.

Plays on road teams (MINNESOTA) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), after allowing 100 points or more two straight games are 75-36 (67.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Clippers are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  

Los Angeles is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games.  The Clippers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.  Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to Los Angeles.  The road team is 20-6 ATS in the last 26 meetings.  Roll with the Timberwolves Monday.

15* Dolphins/Jets ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Miami -6.5

The New York Jets appear to have quit. Rex Ryan is a lame-duck coach who will be fired at season’s end. Their 38-3 loss to the Bills on Monday showed that they don’t have any fight left in them after a disastrous 2-9 start to the season. They keep going back and forth between quarterbacks and will give Geno Smith the start this week in place of Michael Vick. But, it really hasn’t mattered who is under center.

The Jets have rarely been competitive this season. They are getting outscored by an average of 11.4 points per game on the year. Their offense is a mess, scoring just 16.1 points per game while ranking 29th in the league in total offense. I just don’t believe they have the firepower on this side of the ball to keep up with the Dolphins in this one.

Miami is even better than its 6-5 record would indicate this season. It has been playing some great football for a couple months now, going 5-3 in its last eight games overall with a chance to win in all five games. It suffered last-second losses to Green Bay (24-27) and Detroit (16-20), while also going toe-to-toe with Denver (36-39) on the road last week. I’ve seen enough from this team to know that they are elite.

The numbers really tell the story for the Dolphins. They are putting up 25.9 points per game this season while allowing just 19.9 points per game. They have been carried by a defense that ranks 5th in the NFL in allowing just 315.9 yards per game. That’s another reason why I don’t expect the Jets to be able to do anything offensively because they will be up against a similar defense like they were last week in Buffalo, which ranks 4th in total defense.

Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series between New York and Miami over the past two years. In fact, the road team is a perfect 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the four meetings. Miami has won in blowout fashion in its last two trips to the Meadowlands. It won 23-3 on the road last year as a 1-point favorite, and 30-9 on the road in 2012 as a 1-point underdog. The Dolphins are also 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven trips to New York.

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY JETS) – after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, when playing on Monday night are 35-12 (74.5%) ATS since 1983. The Jets are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 vs. excellent kickoff return teams that average more than 24 yards per return.

New York is 11-27 ATS in its last 38 versus good rushing teams that average at least 4.5 per carry. It is expected to be without big defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson for this game, which will further hamper its run defense. The Jets are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a division game. The Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. AFC opponents. The Jets are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall, including 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.  Bet the Dolphins Monday.

20* ACC/Big Ten Challenge GAME OF THE WEEK on Rutgers +9.5

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are in their second season under form NBA coach Eddie Jordan.  This team should be vastly improved this year off a 12-21 campaign in Jordan's first season last year.

Jordan has three starters back from that team, including his top two scorers in G Myles Mack (14.9 ppg, 4.3 apg last year) and F/C Kadeem Jack (14.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg).  In these two seniors, Jordan has some fine leadership and go-to scorers.  Also back is sophomore F Junio Etou (5.34 ppg, 4.6 rpg).

Rutgers has gotten off to a shaky 3-3 start this season, but it has played a tough schedule.  It has a win over Vanderbilt by a final of 68-65 on November 28th as a 5.5-point underdog.  It followed that up with a 26-45 loss to Virginia last time out as an 18.5-point dog.  The Cavaliers are currently ranked 8th in the country, so I'm not going to worry about that loss too much.

My choice to go with Rutgers tonight is more of a fade of Clemson than anything.  I simply believe that this team is not that good and should not be laying 9.5 points to the Scarlet Knights tonight.  Asking the Tigers to win by double-digits to cover is asking too much.

Clemson is off to a 4-2 start this season, but against a much softer schedule than Rutgers.  Its last three wins have all come by single-digits over Nevada (59-50), LSU (64-61) and High Point (62-59) with that 3-point win over High Point coming at home, and the other two on neutral courts.

While those three narrow wins are all concerning for the Tigers, the biggest evidence that they aren't a very good team has come from their two losses.  They lost at home to Winthrop (74-77) and on a neutral court to Gardner-Webb (70-72).

The Tigers did return four players this season that played significant minutes for them last year, but none of those four averaged double-digits scoring last season.  They lost their best player in K.J. McDaniels (17.7 ppg, 7.1 rpg last year) to the NBA, and they simply haven't been nearly as good without him.

Plays against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (CLEMSON) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after a loss by 15 points or more are 121-72 (62.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Clemson is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. teams that are outscored by their opponents by 4-plus points per game. 

Rutgers is 48-28 ATS in its last 76 games following a loss by 15 points or more.  The Tigers are 33-60 ATS in their last 93 games coming off two more more consecutive ATS wins.  Brad Brownell is 4-15 ATS off a close home win by 3 points or less in all games he has coached.  Brownell is 2-11 ATS off a win by 6 points or less as the coach of Clemson.  Take Rutgers Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Grizzlies/Kings UNDER 195.5

The Memphis Grizzlies and Sacramento Kings will take part in a defensive battle tonight in this Western Conference showdown.  The books opened this number around 191.5 and it has been bet all the way up to 195.5 in some place, creating some nice value for us here.

Neither of these teams prefer to push the tempo.  In fact, Memphis ranks just 22nd in the league in pace, averaging just 94.4 possessions per game.  Sacramento is 14th in pace at 95.6 possessions per contest.

The reason Memphis is 14-2 right now and atop the Western Conference standings is its play defensively.  It ranks 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing just 98.3 points per 100 possessions.  Opponents are making just 43.2% of their shots for 92.8 points per game against the Grizzlies.

Memphis has been worse offensively and better defensively on the road this year.  It is scoring just 94.5 points per game away from home, but giving up just 89.9 points per game, combining with its opponents for an average of 184.4 points per game in road games.

Sacramento has been a much better defensive team at home.  It is giving up an average of 97.2 points per game at home this year and 44.1% shooting.  The UNDER is 4-2 in Sacramento's six home games this year, and 5-3 in Memphis' eight road games.

These teams tend to play in low-scoring games when they get together.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings as the Grizzlies and Kings have combined for 188 or fewer points in four of their last five meetings.  I know they combined for 221 in their first meeting of 2014, but that was simply an aberration.

The UNDER is 4-1 in Grizzlies las five road games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Kings last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The UNDER is 9-3 in Kings last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The UNDER is 15-7 in Kings last 22 games following a S.U. loss.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Iowa -7.5

The Northern Iowa Panthers are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are a real threat to challenge Wichita State for the Missouri Valley Conference Title this season, and that's no joke.

This is a Northern Iowa team that went just 16-15 last year, but one that will be one of the most improved in the country in 2014.  That's because it returns all five starters from last year and almost all of its key reserves as well.

The starters back are G Matt Bohannon (9.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg), F Marvin Singleton (3.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg), F Seth Tuttle (15.4 ppg, 8.0 rpg), G Wes Washpun (8.3 ppg, 3.5 rpg) and G Deon Mitchell (12.1 ppg, 2.3 rpg).

Also back are Jeremy Morgan (6.0 ppg, 2.7 rpg) and Nate Buss (10.6 ppg, 5.0 rpg).  The Panthers have also added in Virginia transfer Paul Jesperson and four other redshirts, and I expect them to make their first NCAA Tournament since 2011.

The Panthers are off to a great start at accomplishing that feat.  They have opened 6-0 with five of those victories coming by 12 points or more.  The only exception was a 79-77 win at Stephen F. Austin as a 3-point dog, which is a team that will likely be in the NCAA Tournament this year as well.  Their two most impressive wins came against VA Tech (73-54) and Northwestern (61-42) both on neutral courts.

Tuttle (16.3 ppg, 6.2 rpg) and Washpun (10.5 ppg, 3.3 apg) have carried the load up to this point, but this is such a balanced, deep team that they are tough to deal with.  THe Panthers have seven players averaging at least 6.0 points per game this season.

Richmond is a team on the decline.  It went 19-14 last year and will be hard-pressed to match that record with the loss of leading scorer Cedrick Lindsay (18.3 ppg, 4.0 apg), who was the heart and soul of this team in his four years year.  They do return three starters from last year, though.

Richmond is off to an unimpressive 2-2 start this season with its two wins both coming at home against Radford and High Points.  The Spiders have lost both of their road games with a 57-63 loss at Old Dominion as a 2-point underdog, and a 72-84 loss at NC State as a 6-point dog.  I believe Northern Iowa is better than both Old Dominion and NC State this year.

The Spiders are 5-20 ATS versus good defensive teams with a shooting percentage defense of 42% or better over the last three seasons.  The Spiders are 2-9 ATS versus very good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game over the last two years. 

Richmond is 2-13 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons, including 2-9 ATS as a road underdog over the last two years.  The Spiders are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games overall.  The Panthers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  The Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. Atlantic 10 foes.  Bet Northern Iowa Sunday.

25* NFL Line Mistake GAME OF THE YEAR on Oakland Raiders +7

The St. Louis Rams should not be favored by a touchdown against any team in the NFL. They are getting way too much respect for their recent wins over some of the best teams in the NFL, which were all really flukes when you take a closer look at it. Sure, they have beaten Seattle, San Francisco and Denver in three of their last six games, but they’ve also been blown out by Kansas City (7-34) and Arizona (14-31).

You could make the argument that the Rams should have lost each of their last seven games. That’s because they have actually been outgained by 60 or more yards in all seven of those games. They have been outgained by a total of 780 yards in their last seven games, or by an average of 111.4 yards per game. That’s not a sign of a good team, and certainly not a team that should be favored by a touchdown against any other NFL squad.

The Oakland Raiders (1-10) have continued to fight despite their poor record, actually coming through with a profitable 6-5 ATS mark to this point. They finally got the payoff with a 24-20 home win over Kansas City last week in which they outgained the Chiefs by 38 yards in the win. While this could be a letdown spot, I don’t believe it will be. That’s because the Raiders have had ample time to rest and get over those emotions. They played the Chiefs last Thursday so they come into this game on three more days’ rest than St. Louis.

You could see a win coming for the Raiders when you follow how close they had been to getting one. While they have lost six of their last seven games, five of those losses came by 11 points or fewer. The only exception was a 17-41 loss to Denver in which they only trailed 13-10 late in the first half before getting blown out after intermission. They even went into Seattle and only lost by 6, and they also lost to San Diego twice by 7 and 3 points during this stretch.

Though the Raiders finally had something to show for their efforts, they'd made strides by being within a score in the fourth quarter in five of the first six games since Tony Sparano replaced the fired Dennis Allen on Sept. 29. Oakland didn't score more than 14 points in any of the first four under Allen but has averaged 17.9 and scored at least 24 three times for Sparano.

In my mind, these teams are very equal. The numbers show that as well as the Rams are getting outgained by 53.4 yards per game, while the Raiders are getting outgained by 77.3 yards per game. So, the Rams have a slight edge, and should be no more than 4-point favorites at home. They should be roughly a 1-point favorite on a neutral field. Asking them to win by more than a touchdown this week is simply asking too much.

Plays on road teams (OAKLAND) – off one or more straight overs, a poor offensive team (14-18 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG) are 28-9 (75.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. St. Louis is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 home games in the second half of the season when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 25% of less. The Rams are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games in the second half of the season vs. poor ball control teams that average 28 or less possession minutes per game. Oakland is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.  Bet the Raiders Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Redskins +10

The Washington Redskins (3-8) have not won any game that Robert Griffin III has started and completed this season. Well, the good news is that Colt McCoy is expected to replace Griffin III as the starter this week. He has played extremely well in limited action. In fact, the Redskins are 2-0 in games that McCoy has finished in place of Griffin III and Kirk Cousins.

McCoy replaced an injured Cousins midway through the Tennessee game and led the Redskins to a 19-17 victory. He went 11-of-12 for 128 yards and a touchdown in the win. He played the full game against Dallas on Monday Night Football in their last win, a 20-17 (OT) thriller as a 9-point road underdog. McCoy completed a ridiculous 25-of-30 passes for 299 yards, while also rushing for 16 yards and a score to lead the Redskins to victory.  That makes him 36-of-42 passing in his last two games.

Certainly, Washington has little to play for at this point at 3-8, but McCoy could be the spark it needs to get back up off the mat this week. After all, the Redskins have clearly not quit as they only lost by three to Minnesota and by four to San Francisco in two of their last three losses. Griffin III has been the biggest culprit for the losses, but the numbers show that this is still a solid football team on both sides of the ball.

Indeed, the Redskins rank 9th in the league in yardage differential, actually outgaining teams by an average of 34.2 yards per game. A whopping 16 of the top 18 teams in yardage differential this season actually have winning records. The only exceptions are the Redskins and Saints (5th), who are both clearly much better than their records would indicate.

Washington ranks a respectable 11th in the league in total offense at 365.2 yards per game. It also ranks 10th in total defense, giving up just 331.0 yards per game. There is no way that with those numbers this team should be a 10-point underdog to the Colts this week. Six of the Redskins’ eight losses this season have come by 11 points or less. Asking Indianapolis to win by double-digits to cover the spread is simply asking too much.

The Colts rely heavily on the pass to move the football, and Washington is one of the best teams in the league at getting after the passer.  Andrew Luck was sacked five fumbles and had four fumbles against Washington last week.  The Redskins have an effective pass rush that ranks 14th in sacks (27.0) this season.  They have been very unfortunate to have only four picks on the season, and they rank 28th in turnover differential (-9), which is also unfortunate to this point.  They won't be turning it over with McCoy under center.

Plays on road teams (WASHINGTON) – off a road loss, in November games are 75-31 (70.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON) – after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games are 34-12 (73.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.

Washington is 17-3 ATS vs. excellent passing teams that average 260 or more passing yards per game after eight-plus games since 1992. The Redskins are a perfect 13-0 ATS versus terrible defensive teams that allow 6.0 yards per play or more in the second half of the season since 1992. Washington is 27-12 ATS in its last 39 road games after having lost five or six of its last seven games.  Take the Redskins Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on San Diego Chargers +6.5

I believe the Baltimore Ravens (7-4) are overvalued coming into this one after their win over the Saints last week on Monday Night Football. That’s the same Saints team that is just 4-7 right now and has lost three straight at home coming in, and the Ravens were coming off their bye, so it was a good spot for them. It’s not the Saints team of year’s past that was a Super Bowl contender almost every year. Asking the Ravens to come back on a short week and beat the Chargers by a touchdown or more to cover this spread is asking too much.

San Diego (7-4) comes into this game undervalued because it has failed to cover the spread in six consecutive games. The betting public has taken notice and has shunned this team as a result, forcing oddsmakers to set this number higher than it should be. Sure, the Chargers are coming off wins over the Rams and Raiders by a combined 10 points, but that’s nothing to be ashamed of. The Rams have beaten the 49ers, Seahawks and Broncos lately, while the Raiders just knocked off the Chiefs last week.

The numbers indicate that the Chargers are still one of the better teams in the league. Their offense is putting up a respectable 22.3 points per game, but the biggest reason for their success has been their defense. The Chargers are only giving up 19.6 points and 330.0 yards per game to rank 9th in the league in total defense. The Ravens are a pedestrian 15th in total defense, giving up 352.9 yards per game.

The Chargers obviously rely heavily on Philip Rivers and the passing game. They are completing 67.8 percent of thheir passes for 248 yards per game and 7.4 per attempt against teams that are giving up 64.0% completions, 231 yards per game and 6.6 per attempt.  They put up 410 yards on a very good St. Louis defense last week, including 282 passing.  Rivers went 29 of 35 passing for 291 yards.  Ryan Matthews returned from injury and rushed for 112 yards on just 12 carries.

That makes this a very good matchup for Rivers and company because the weakness of the Baltimore defense is against the pass. Indeed, the Ravens are giving up 65.7% completions, 265 yards per game and 7.1 per attempt this season. They rank 29th in the league against the pass.  They are also playing without their best cornerback in Jimmy Smith, who is on the IR with a foot injury.

Plays on road teams (SAN DIEGO) – after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 40-14 (74.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Chargers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Ravens are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.  Roll with the Chargers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Saints +5

The New Orleans Saints (4-7) clearly have not played up to their potential this season. However, there’s no question that they are much better than their record would indicate. Five of their seven losses have come by a touchdown or less, including three by a combined six points. They have simply been unfortunate in close games. The good news is that they still have plenty to play for since they remain tied for first place in the NFC South.

The numbers certainly show that the Saints are better than their record. They rank 5th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 56.5 yards per game. In fact, of the top 18 teams in the league in yardage differential, only two have losing records. They are the Saints and Redskins, who are two of the most underrated teams in the league at this point in the season. I still believe the Saints are one of the better teams in the league.  What has hurt them is ranking 28th in turnover differential (-9), which has been bad luck as much as anything.

With an offense like the one the Saints boast, they have a chance to beat anyone. They are putting up 26.2 points per game while ranking 2nd in the NFL in total offense at 433.6 yards per game. Drew Brees hasn’t missed a beat this season despite all his critics. He is completing a ridiculous 70.3 percent of his passes for 3,491 yards with 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions on the season. He just recently got back Pierre Thomas from injury, who is his favorite outlet out of the backfield.

Pittsburgh has been tearing it up offensively as well this season, but it has been vulnerable on defense. It is giving up 23.9 points per game overall and 26.8 points per game at home. It has allowed 20 or more points in six consecutive games. It has given up 27 points to Cleveland, 27 to Tampa Bay, 31 to Cleveland, 34 to Indianapolis, and 24 to Tennessee, just to name a few of its poor performances on that side of the ball this year. It has allowed at least 19 points in 10 of its 11 games, and the only exception was Jacksonville, which sports the league's worst offense. It will give up another big number to this explosive Saints’ offense Sunday.

This will be a step up in competition for the Steelers, who have played the Jets and Titans in their last two games.  They lost to the Jets 20-13 on the road before squeaking out a come-from-behind victory over Tennessee (27-24) in their last game.  Ben Roethlisberger thre three interceptions, took seven sacks and hit just two passing plays of at least 25 yards while splitting those two games.

New Orleans is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 road games after allowing 175 or more rushing yards in its last game. While the Saints are 1-4 on the road this season, three of those losses came by 3 points or less. If they lose this game, there’s a good chance it will be by 4 points or less. New Orleans is 4-0 ATS in its last four Sunday games following a Monday night game. The Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Buffalo Bills -3

The Buffalo Bills (6-5) are certainly playing for their city and trying to stay alive in the playoff hunt right now. The Buffalo area got as much as eight feet of snow in a short span last week, causing several snow-related deaths. The Bills brought some joy to the area with their dominant 38-3 win over the Jets last week. They thoroughly dominated that game, outgaining the Jets by 118 yards in the win. Now, they get back home in front of their fans at Ralph Wilson Stadium, and it’s going to be a rowdy atmosphere as the Browns come to town.

Kyle Orton has injected new life into the offense. He has gone 4-3 as a starter for this team with his only three losses coming against playoff contenders in New England, Kansas City and Miami. He is completing 65.4 percent of his passes with 12 touchdowns and only three interceptions. Orton has seven TDs and no INTs in his last four games.  Unlike past Buffalo quarterbacks, he is not allowing the Bills to beat themselves with costly turnovers on offense.

That’s very important because when you have a defense like Buffalo does, you do not want the offense to blow games by committing turnovers. The reason the Bills have staying power is because of their D. They are giving up just 18.8 points per game while ranking 4th in the league in total defense at 312.3 yards per game.

Cleveland is one of the most overrated teams in the NFL. It is extremely fortunate to have a winning record right now, let alone a 7-4 mark. The numbers tell the story. The Browns rank just 16th in the NFL in yardage differential as they are actually getting outgained on the season. The reason they do not have staying power is their defense, which is ranks 20th in the NFL in giving up 367.1 yards per game.

I’ll gladly back the better defense any day.  Plus, you have to consider the injuries that the Browns are dealing with right now.  Starting safety Tashaun Gipson, who leads the NFL with six interceptions, went out with a knee injury against Atlanta last week and may not return this season.  DL Phillip Taylor, DE Armonty Bryant, and DE John Hughes are all out, while DL Ahtyba Rubin, LB Jamaal Sheard and LB Karlos Dansby are all questionable to play Sunday.

The Browns have put up the better numbers offensively this year, but they have also played the much easier schedule.  They are averaging 22.0 point and 367 yards per game against teams that allow 24.3 points and 371 yards per game, so they have simply benefited from playing against terrible opposing defenses. 

The Bills are averaging 21.6 points and 323 yards per game against teams that give up 21.9 points and 336 yards per game, so they have had to play a much more difficult slate of defenses.  Plus, Orton hasn't started all year, and the offense has been much better with him under center.

Cleveland hasn't been able to run the football very well, averaging 116 yards per game and 3.6 per carry.  It relies mostly on the pass, averaging 251 passing yards per game.  That makes this a great matchup for the Bills, who rank 5th in the league against the pass at 213.8 yards per game.  They also lead the league with 46 sacks on the season, which is an astronomical number.  Brian Hoyer is going to be under duress all game as this Buffalo pass rush plays inspired football behind its home crowd.

Plays on favorites (BUFFALO) – after two consecutive game where they committed one or less turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers are 53-26 (67.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Bills are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 home games during Weeks 10 through 13. The favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series.  Buffalo is 43-25 ATS in its last 68 games after failing to cover the spread in four or five of its last six games.  Take the Bills Sunday.

20* Utah State/Boise State Mountain West BAILOUT on Utah State +10

The Utah State Aggies and Boise State Broncos will be playing for the right to go to the Mountain West Championship Game today.  The only reason that is possible is because Colorado State lost to Air Force yesterday, giving the Aggies hope.

Had the Rams won that game against Air Force, they would have had the tiebreaker over Utah State, and then the Aggies would have had nothing to play for but pride today.  I believe that win by the Falcons will be huge for Utah State's mental state heading into this one as they'll be charged up knowing they have a chance to get back to the MWC Title Game for a second straight year.

Utah State hasn't lost since that 13-16 road loss to Colorado State.  It has gone 5-0 since with all five victories coming by seven points or more, including four by 14 points or more.  I just really like the way that this team has been playing and the fact that it has one of the most underrated defenses in the country.

Indeed, the Aggies rank 1st in the Mountain West in scoring and total defense, giving up just 18.3 points and 351.0 yards per game on the season, including 13.9 points and 349.7 yards per game in conference play.  I will take good defense over good offense any day as Boise State ranks 1st in the conference in total offense.

However, it's not like the Aggies have been lacking on offense, either.  They are putting up 28.1 points per game on the season and 29.3 points per game in conference play.  This offense has been much sharper since stud freshman Kent Myers took over as the starting quarterback. 

He is completing a ridiculous 73.4 percent of his passes with a 5-to-1 TD/INT ratio and 8.1 yards per attempt.  Myers has also been their best dual-threat quarterback this season as he has added 192 rushing yards and three scores while averaging 6.2 per carry.  Most teams couldn't perform well when they were down to their fourth-string QB, but Myers has really been a diamond in the rough for the Aggies.

While Boise State has been great offensively this season, it has been horrible on the other side of the football.  It is giving up 28.4 points per game on the season, including a ridiculous 31.0 points per game in conference play.  That's really bad when you consider the Mountain West just isn't that good.

Utah State is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game.  The Aggies are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game.  Utah State is 24-9-1 ATS in its last 34 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Aggies are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. 

The Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Boise State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win by more than 20 points.  The Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  The road team is 5-0-2 ATS int he last seven meetings.  These four trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Aggies.  Bet Utah State Saturday.

20* Auburn/Alabama SEC Saturday No-Brainer on Alabama -9

The Alabama Crimson Tide (11-0) have been waiting for this game since last year. They want revenge on the Tigers from that crushing 34-28 defeat that sent Auburn to the SEC Championship. Now, a spot in the title game is at stake for the Crimson Tide this week, while the Tigers have no shot of playing in it. So, from a motivational perspective, there’s no question that the Crimson Tide have the edge heading into this one.

More importantly, Alabama is the better team. In fact, I believe it is the most complete team in the country. This is easily one of the best offenses in school history. The Crimson Tide are averaging 35.0 points and 482.4 yards per game against teams that give up 25.4 points and 393 yards per game. Defensively, the Crimson Tide have been dominant again this year. They are allowing just 14.5 points and 283.1 yards per game against teams that average 29.5 points and 411 yards per game.

Auburn once again has an explosive offense that puts up 35.1 points and 476.8 yards per game. However, this is a terrible matchup for them because they rely primarily on the run to move the football. Alabama only gives up 85 rushing yards per game and 2.7 per carry against teams that average 163 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry. Alabama’s ability to stop the run will be the difference in this one.

While the Tigers have a decent defense, it is nowhere near up to the caliber of Alabama’s stop unit. The Tigers are giving up 23.5 points and 375.6 yards per game on the season. They have given up at least 31 points five times this year.  They allowed 41 points to Texas A&M, 38 to Mississippi State, 35 to South Carolina, 34 to Georgia and 31 to Ole Miss. They lost three of those five games. Alabama is sure to hang a big number on this vulnerable Auburn defense as well.

Sure, Auburn has won two of the last six meetings in this series, but they shouldn’t have won either of those as they needed some late-game heroics to do so. Alabama outgained Auburn by 102 yards last year, by 320 yards in 2012, by 257 yards in 2011, by 119 yards in 2010, was outgained by 41 yards in 2009, and outgained the Tigers by 242 yards in 2008. As you can see, this really has been a one-sided series over the past six years when you take a closer look at the box scores.

Alabama is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games off two home no-covers where it won straight up as a favorite. That’s another reason why this line is smaller than it should be because the Crimson Tide failed to cover the spread in their last two games. The Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Alabama is 6-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 33.3 points per game.  Roll with Alabama Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia 76ers +12.5

The Philadelphia 76ers (0-15) are desperate for their first win of the season.  They could have a good shot of pulling off the upset against the Dallas Mavericks tonight given the situation, and I fully expect them to stay within 12 points at the very least.

The betting public wants nothing to do with an 0-15 team, which has driven this line up higher than it should be tonight.  The 76ers have actually been undervalued over the past week.  They are 2-1 ATS against the closing line in their last three games.

The 76ers only lost 83-91 at New York as an 11-point underdog, 104-114 against Portland as a 13-point dog, and 91-99 against Brooklyn as a 7-point dog.  They have been much more competitive in these three games, and they should continue that trend tonight.

Dallas is in a very difficult spot.  It will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 6th game in 9 days.  It is coming off a hard-fought 106-102 win at Eastern Conference-leading Toronto last night, setting it up for a letdown spot here as well.  This tired team won't have what it takes to put away the 76ers by 13-plus points.  Plus, Philadelphia comes in on two days' rest after last playing on Wednesday.

Plays against road favorites of 10 or more points (DALLAS) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game are 51-22 (69.9%) ATS since 1996.  Philadelphia is 75-48 ATS in its last 123 games as an underdog of 10 or more points.  The 76ers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The underdog is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these teams.  Take the 76ers Saturday.

20* Mississippi State/Ole Miss Egg Bowl Beat Down on Mississippi State -2.5

The Mississippi State Bulldogs (10-1) need one more win to likely get them into the college football playoff. I believe they get that victory Saturday in the Egg Bowl against the Ole Miss Rebels (8-3). Getting them as less than a field goal favorite is certainly a gift from the oddsmakers in this one. These teams are headed in opposite directions right now.

Mississippi State has arguably been the best team in the SEC all season. Its only loss came on the road by a final of 20-25 at Alabama as a 10-point underdog. Alabama is currently the No. 1 team in the playoff rankings, so going into Tuscaloosa and only losing by five points shows that the Bulldogs can play with anyone. They have also beaten the likes of Arkansas, Auburn, Texas A&M and LSU among others within the SEC.

This is really more of a fade against Ole Miss than anything. The Rebels have had their dreams of winning the SEC crushed in recent weeks with three losses in their last four games. They fell 7-10 at LSU, 31-35 at home against Auburn, and then appeared to quit in a 0-30 loss at Arkansas last week. I know this is a rivalry game, but I really do not like the mental state of the Rebels at all heading into this game. They just don’t have nearly as much to play for as the Bulldogs.

Ole Miss’ downfall coincided with the loss of its two best players on both sides of the ball. Linebacker Denzel Nkemdiche suffered a broken ankle in late October and is out for the season. Wide receiver Laquan Treadwell suffered a broken leg in the closing seconds against Auburn and is also out for the rest of the year. Nkemdiche was their enforcer at middle linebacker, while Treadweall was their top playmaker on offense at receiver.

Both teams feature solid defenses as the Bulldogs are giving up 18.4 points per game while the Rebels are allowing 13.5 per game. The difference in this game is going to be Mississippi State’s offense, which has been unstoppable in averaging 39.0 points and 511.7 yards per game behind a balanced attack that averages 248 yards on the ground and 264 through the air. Ole Miss only averages 435.5 yards per game and has been much less explosive here of late. It is averaging just 12.7 points per game in its last three SEC games, and was shut out in its first SEC game without Treadwell against Arkansas.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MISSISSIPPI ST) – off one or more consecutive unders, good offensive team – scoring 31 or more points/game are 72-28 (72%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a losing record. Mississippi State is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games. The Bulldogs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 conference games. The Rebels are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. Ole Miss is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 November games.  Bet Mississippi State Saturday.

15* Florida/Florida State Rivalry Play on Florida +7.5

The Florida State Seminoles (11-0) have been overvalued all season after winning the BCS Championship last year. They created expectations for themselves that they simply could not live up to, especially from the betting public and the oddsmakers. Despite going 11-0 to this point, they have gone a woeful 3-8 against the spread. They have won five games this season by six points or less and are extremely fortunate to remain undefeated.

Asking the Seminoles to win by more than a touchdown to cover this spread against rival Florida is asking too much. They have beaten worse teams by less. Their five wins by six points or less have come against Oklahoma State (37-31), Clemson (23-17), Notre Dame (31-27), Miami (30-26) and Boston College (20-17).

They also failed to cover as a 56.5-point favorite against The Citadel (37-12), as a 16.5-point favorite against NC State (56-41), as a 23.5-point favorite against Syracuse (38-20), and as a 21-point favorite against Virginia (34-20). As you can see, several teams that aren’t as good as Florida have played the Seminoles very tough this season.

Yes, the Gators have lost four games this season, but those four losses have come against the likes of Alabama, LSU, Missouri and South Carolina. They were only blown out twice as the 21-42 loss at Alabama was a legitimate blowout, but the 13-42 loss to Missouri wasn’t. They actually held the Tigers to just 119 total yards but committed six turnovers and gave up several non-offensive touchdowns in a fluke blowout. Their losses to LSU (27-30) and South Carolina (20-23) came by three points each.

Florida has been a completely different team since inserting Treon Harris as the starting quarterback. He returned as a starter against Georgia and led Florida to a 38-20 road victory. They also beat Vanderbilt 34-10 on the road, lost to South Carolina in overtime, and beat Eastern Kentucky 52-3.

Harris has thrown six touchdowns against one interception while averaging 10.7 yards per attempt, while also rushing for 250 yards and three scores in limited action.  To compare, Jeff Driskel only averaged 5.6 yards per attempt before being replaced to Harris.  Both the passing game and the running game have gotten a boost with Harris under center.  The Gators have rushed for 214-plus yards in three of their last four games and will use Boston College's blueprint from last week to run the ball and control the time of possession.

While Harris certainly has given the offense a huge boost, the biggest reason the Gators have a chance to not only cover but win this game outright is their defense. Will Muschamp has an elite stop unit that is giving up just 20.9 points and 308.8 yards per game to rank 10th in the country in total defense. Florida State has been more vulnerable on that side of the ball, allowing 379.2 yards per game to rank 55th in total defense.

Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series of late as the road team has won each of the last three meetings while going 3-0 ATS. Florida won its last trip to Tallahassee by a final of 37-26 as a 7-point underdog in 2012. It has actually gone 4-1 straight up in its last five road games against Florida State. The Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. They are 3-1 straight up on the road this season with their only loss coming at Alabama.  Take Florida Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State +14

This is Senior Night for Penn State, and I look for it to put forth one of its best performances of the season today at home against Michigan State.  Asking the Spartans to win by more than two touchdowns to cover the spread is simply asking too much.

While Penn State is just 6-5 this season, I would argue that this team is better than its record would indicate.  It has simply been unfortunate in close games.  Indeed, four of its five losses have come by 7 points or less, and by a combined 15 points..

The one close loss that really stands out that shows the Nittany Lions can play with the Buckeyes is the 24-31 home loss to Ohio State.  They lost that game in overtime and held the Buckeyes to just 293 total yards.  That's the same Ohio State team that went into Michigan State and won 49-37 as the Spartans allowed 568 total yards in the loss.

What gives Penn State a chance to hang around in this game is its superb defense.  It is only giving up 16.2 points per game while ranking 3rd in the country in total defense at 267.2 yards per game.  It has allowed 20 or fewer points in eight of its 11 games this season, and if it does that against Michigan State, it will have no problem covering this spread.

Penn State has played Michigan State very tough in recent years.  Indeed, it is 5-2 SU & 4-3 ATS in its last seven meetings with the Spartans.  Its two losses during this stretch came by 6 and 4 points, so you have to go all the way back to 2003 to find the last time that the Nittany Lions lost to the Spartans by more than this spread of 14 points.

Plays against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MICHIGAN ST) - after leading in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in two straight games are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Penn State is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games following one or more consecutive unders.  It is winning by 21.6 points per game in this spot.  The Nittany Lions are 23-10 ATS in their last 33 home games following a road loss.  Penn State is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 home games.  The Nittany Lions are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. loss.  The Spartans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven trips to Penn State.  Roll with Penn State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska-Omaha -4.5

This Nebraska-Omaha team is one that I had my eye on a lot last year and rode them with quite a bit of success.  They are an under-the-radar team because they still have one year left in their four-year reclassification to Division I, which means they can't be part of the Summit League, NCAA and NIT Tournaments.

Due to this fact, most of the betting public does not know about the Mavericks just yet.  They went 17-15 last season and pulled off some impressive upsets alone the way.  Now, they bring back three starters and a key reserve from that team and should be even better in 2014-15.

Those three starters are G CJ Carter (13.5 ppg, 3.4 apg last year), F Mike Rostampour (9.2 ppg, 7.5 rpg) and G Devin Patterson (10.1 ppg, 3.3 apg).  The key reserve is G Marcus Tyler (9.4 ppg, 2.1 rpg).

With Carter, Patterson and Tyler, the Mavericks are loaded at the guard positions to run head coach Derrin Hansen's up-tempo system.  Rostampour is a rebounding beast; he averaged 7.5 boards in just 20.7 minutes per game last year.  Throw in Wichita State transfer Jake White, who played in the Final Four against Louisville, and this has the makings of a dangerous club.

Just ask Marquette about it.  Nebraska-Omaha went into Marquette and won 97-89 as a 17-point underdog on November 22nd.  It followed that up with a game effort at Nebraska, getting the cover as a 14.5-point underdog in a 13-point loss.  So, it is battle-tested after playing Marquette and Nebraska in back-to-back games.

Nevada is coming off a 15-17 season last year.  It brings back just two starters from that team, losing each of its top three scorers in Deonte Burton (20.1 ppg, 4.4 apg, 4.3 rpg), Cole Huff (12.4 ppg, 5.4 rpg) and Jerry Evans (12.3 ppg, 6.2 rpg).

To no surprise, the Wolf Pack have really struggled in the early going.  They are 2-3 with three straight losses to Seton Hall (60-68), Clemson (50-59) and Weber State (56-69) on a neutral court.  Their two wins are not impressive, either, as they beat both Cal Poly-SLO (65-49) and Adams State (69-64) at home.  That performance against Adams State really tells a lot about how down this team really is.

Nebraska-Omaha is 8-1 ATS after allowing 80 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Mavericks are 9-2 ATS in non-conference games over the last two seasons.  The Wolf Pack are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.  Roll with Nebraska-Omaha Saturday.

15* Georgia Tech/Georgia Rivalry Play on Georgia Tech +12

The Georgia Bulldogs are deflated right now.  They needed Missouri to lose to Arkansas yesterday to earn a spot in the SEC Championship Game.  The Tigers came from behind and won, meaning they will be going to the SEC Championship for a second straight year, while the Bulldogs will be watching from home.

While this game against Georgia Tech was going to have no bearing on Georgia's SEC Championship hopes, it's certainly worth noting that the Bulldogs won't be in a good state of mind because of yesterday's result by Missouri.

Georgia Tech (9-2), meanwhile, is in a great state of mind knowing that it will be playing Florida State in the ACC Championship next week.  It also wants revenge from a tough 34-41 (OT) loss to Georgia last year.  It blew a 20-7 halftime lead in that game and will certainly be licking its chops at a chance at revenge.

The Yellow Jackets also come into this game as the fresher team.  They are coming off their bye week after dismantling Clemson 28-6 back on November 15th.  They have been playing some tremendous football of late that will give them the confidence they need to try and pull off the upset in this one.

Indeed, the Yellow Jackets are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games with all four wins coming by 22 or more points.  They won at Pitt 56-28 as a 4-point underdog, beat Virginia 35-10 as a 4-point home favorite, beat NC State 56-23 as a 3-point road favorite, and topped Clemson 28-6 as a 2-point home dog.  It's also worth noting that both of Georgia Tech's losses this year came by 6 points or less.

I would argue that this is the best team that Paul Johnson has had at Georgia Tech, and that's saying a lot considering this team has won the ACC Championship in his time here.  The biggest reason for that is the play of quarterback Justin Thomas.

Thomas leads an offense that puts up 37.8 points and 469.6 yards per game this season.  He leads the team in rushing (827 yards, 5 TD, 5.4/carry), but the difference has been his passing.  He has thrown for 1,396 yards and 15 touchdowns against four interceptions while averaging 9.6 yards per attempt.

This Georgia Tech defense has really stepped up its play this year as well, allowing a respectable 24.1 points per game on the year.  They have held their last three opponents to an average of 13.0 points per game.  The Yellow Jackets allowed just 6 points and 190 total yards to Clemson last time out.

Georgia has been extremely vulnerable against the run here of late, allowing an average of 243.0 yards per game in their last four games.  They gave up a whopping 418 yards to Florida in a 20-38 loss.  This Georgia Tech triple-option attack should have plenty of success, just as it did last year when it racked up 34 points and 495 total yards against Georgia.

Georgia is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 home games against teams with a winning percentage of greater than 75%.  The Bulldogs are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Georgia is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 games after scoring more than 40 points in its previous game.  The road team is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings in this series.  Take Georgia Tech Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Kentucky +13

I just love Kentucky's mental and physical state coming into this one.  It sits at 5-6 on the season, so it will be motivated for a win to get to its first bowl game since 2010.  It also comes in on two weeks' rest after playing its last game on November 15th against Tennessee.

I hate Louisville's mental and physical state coming into this one.  It is coming off a taxing 31-28 win at Notre Dame last week that took a lot out of the Cardinals emotionally.  That makes this a huge letdown spot for them off such a big win in South Bend.

Kentucky absolutely cannot wait to get away from the tough SEC slate they've been up against during their current five-game losing streak.  Their last five games have come against LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, Georgia and Tennessee with three of those on the road.  This bye week could not have come at a better time after that gauntlet.

This is the best Kentucky team that we've seen in years.  A big reason for that is the play of former Kentucky High School Player of the Year Patrick Towles at quarterback.  He leads a Kentucky offense that is putting up 28.2 points per game this season.  Towles is completing 58.0 percent of his passes for 2,542 yards with 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions, while also rushing for 293 yards and six scores.

The Wildcats also will be motivated for revenge following three consecutive losses to the Cardinals in this series.  They have only lost to Louisville by more than 13 points twice in their last seven meetings, and even those were competitive as they lost by 14 points last year and by 18 in 2012.  This is easily the best Kentucky team that Louisville has faced since at least 2010.  The road team is also 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

"We've got a lot to play for," Wildcats coach Mark Stoops said. "Guys are excited and energized. It's been a good, tough stretch against some quality teams."

"I think a win this weekend would do an awful lot for these players," Stoops said. "I think they deserve it. They put in the work. They've put in the time, they care and they deserve to win and have that taste of success and that taste of a bowl game."

Plays on a road team (KENTUCKY) - average offensive team (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) against a team with a good defense (4.2 to 4.8 YPP), after allowing 525 or more total yards/game over their last two games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1992.

Louisville is 0-6 ATS in home games after having won three of its last four games over the last three seasons.  The Cardinals are 0-7 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the last two seasons.  Louisville is 0-6 ATS after outrushing its last opponents by 125 or more yards over the last three seasons.  Kentucky is 4-0 ATS in its last four non-conference games.  These four trends combine for a perfect 23-0 system backing the Wildcats.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando Magic +5.5

The Indiana Pacers should not be laying this many points to anyone with the state they are in this season.  They are playing without four starters from last year in Paul George, George Hill, Lance Stephenson and David West.  West is questionable to return tonight, and Roy Hibbert is also questionable.

The Pacers have shown some heart by getting to 6-9 thus far, but this still isn't a very good team, and certainly not one that should be laying this many points.  Only once this season have the Pacers been more than a 4-point favorite, and that was back in their opener as 7.5-point favorites against lowly Philadelphia.

Orlando has made some strides this season as it has been much more competitive with a 6-11 record.  It has lost three straight coming in, but those three came to Miami, Cleveland and Golden State, which are three of the better teams in the NBA.  This rough patch has the Magic undervalued right now.

The Pacers are overvalued due to solid performances on the road in their last two games.  They actually beat Dallas 111-100 as a 14-point underdog as the Mavs simply had a letdown.  They also hung tough against San Antonio last time out in a 100-106 road loss as a 13-point dog.  With Cleveland on deck tomorrow, this is a huge letdown and lookahead spot.  They'll let down following a game against the defending champion Spurs, and they'll be looking ahead to Lebron James and the Cavs tomorrow.

Orlando is 26-12 ATS in road games in the first half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Magic are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.  Orlando is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 Friday games.  Indiana is 8-20-1 ATS in its last 29 home games.  The Pacers are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Take the Magic Friday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Hornets +9

The Golden State Warriors come into this game overvalued due to their 12-2 record that has them in second place in the Western Conference.  The only reason they are 9-point favorites here is because the betting public is all over them due to their fast start, which has created expectations from the oddsmakers that they cannot live up to.

Charlotte is undervalued right now due to its 4-12 start that has it ranking near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings.  There's no question that this team is better than its record would indicate, and it should not be catching nine points at home tonight.

Eight of the Hornets' 11 losses this season have come by 9 points or less, including six by 5 points or fewer.  So, this team has simply been unfortunate in close games.  The Hornets will be desperate to put an end to their seven-game losing streak coming in, which has seen them fail to cover six times.  That has also driven this line up as the betting public wants nothing to do with them.

Plays against road teams (GOLDEN STATE) - very good defensive team - shooting pct defense of 41% or less on the season, after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less are 74-34 (68.5%) ATS since 1996.  The Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Bet the Hornets Friday.

20* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on TCU -7

The TCU Horned Frogs came into the season way undervalued after going 9-22 last year, including 0-18 in the Big 12.  They weren't nearly as bad as their record would indicate, and now they return almost everyone from that team and will be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014-15.

Indeed, a whopping four starters are back from that squad.  That includes the top two leading scorers in Kyan Anderson (17.0 ppg, 4.5 apg last year) and Amric Fields (13.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg), who are two of the most underrated players in the Big 12.  Also back are Karviar Shepherd (9.1 ppg, 6.8 rpg) and Brandon Parish (8.0 ppg, 3.1 rpg).

TCU is off to a perfect 5-0 start this season with all five of its wins coming by 15 points or more.  It has been rather impressive to say the least, especially its 81-54 home victory over Pac-12 foe Washington State as a 5.5-point favorite.

Bradley was not very good last year, and things aren't looking up for the Braves in 2014-15, either.  They went just 12-20 last year, including 7-11 within the Missouri Valley Conference.  They lose their top two scorers from last season in Walt Lemon Jr. (18.0 ppg, 3.9 apg) and Tyshon Pickett (12.1 ppg, 7.6 rpg).  The Braves only return two starters this year in Omari Grier (10.4 ppg, 2.4 rpg) and Auston Barnes (8.6 ppg, 5.6 rpg).

It has been an ugly start to the season for Bradley to say the least.  It is just 2-2 despite all four of its games being played at home, and all four against very weak opponents.  The Braves lost 75-86 to Texas-Arlington despite being a 4.5-point favorite.  They also lost to Robert Morris (61-68) before unimpressive wins over North Carolina A&T (58-50) and Texas A&M Corpus Christi (52-38).  It's clear by those four results that this team is awful and stands no chance of competing with TCU tonight.

Plays on a favorite (TCU) - off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, with two more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first ten games of the season are 40-12 (76.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  TCU is 6-1 ATS in its last seven non-conference games.  Bradley is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games.  The Braves are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games.  Bet TCU Friday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on St. John's +6.5

The St. John's Red Storm are coming off a solid 20-13 season last year that included a 10-8 mark in Big East play.  Steve Lavin had a young team last year, but he certainly has a veteran bunch in 2014 with four returning starters and most of the key players back from that team.

Back are starters D'Angelo Harrison (17.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg last year), Phil Greene IV (7.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg) and Rysheed Jordan (9.7 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 2.2 apg).  Also back are key reserves Jamal Branch (4.5 ppg), Chris Obekpa (3.8 ppg, 4.8 rpg) and Sir'Dominic Pointer (5.9 ppg, 3.2 rpg).

All six of these guys are playing well en route to a 4-0 start for St. John's that included a 70-61 victory over a very good Minnesota team in the opening round of this NIT Tournament.  The Red Storm have a huge advantage in this tournament because it is being played at Madison Square Garden, which is their home court.

Here is a look at the numbers all of these returnees have posted this season.  Harrison (18.5 ppg, 10.0 rpg), Jordan (17.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 4.0 apg), Pointer (11.8 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 3.0 spg), Greene IV (9.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg), Obekpa (9.0 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 4.3 bpg) and Branch (5.5 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 2.5 apg).  So, as you can see, they are all contributing significantly.  They are the top-six leading scorers on this team.

Gonzaga is getting way too much respect right now because it is currently the No. 10 ranked team in the country and off to a 5-0 start.  However, it really has not played anyone as tough as St. John's yet, and it will meet its match tonight.  It failed to cover as a 12.5-point favorite in an 88-76 win over a bad Georgia team in the opening round.

There's no denying that the Bulldogs are a quality team, but they aren't the 10th-best team in the country with what they lost from last year.  They had to part ways with four players who averaged at least 6 points per game, including Sam Dower (14.4 ppg, 7.2 rpg), Dave Stockton (7.4 ppg, 4.2 apg) and Dreew Barham (6.3 ppg, 3.0 rpg).  They do have three starters back and will be good again, but lost a lot of key role players.

St. John's is 71-47 ATS in its last 118 vs. good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per game.  Gonzaga is 2-9 ATS off two straight games where it gave up 9 or less offensive rebounds over the past two seasons.  The Bulldogs are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games off three straight wins by 10 points or more.  They are only winning by 3.5 points/game in this spot.  They are clearly overvalued here in a game that I wouldn't be surprised to see the Red Storm win outright.  Take St. John's Friday.

15* Oklahoma/Wisconsin Battle 4 Atlantis BLOWOUT on Oklahoma +7.5

Oklahoma is a team I've had my eye on coming into the season as one to watch out for.  It returned four starters from last year and added in a monster transfer from Houston in TaShawn Thomas.

The Sooners have not disappointed as they are off to a 4-1 start with blowout wins over UCLA (75-65) and Butler (59-46) in the first two games of the Battle 4 Atlantic tournament.  They did lose at Creighton 63-65 earlier this year, but the Bluejays are a top 25 team, and they blew an 18-point lead in that game.  Butler beat UNC, so that win was a very good one.

Wisconsin is overvalued right now because it is currently the No. 2 ranked team in the country.  It struggled to beat Georgetown as a 9.5-point favorite yesterday, only winning 68-65.  Oklahoma is the best team that it has faced yet.

One thing I really like about the Sooners today is the fact that they played before Wisconsin yesterday.  They played at 1:00 EST, while the Badgers played at 3:30 EST.  So, they get a little extra rest, and they also got to scout the Badgers by watching their game after.  Wisconsin played in a physical game against Georgetown that featured 39 fouls and had to take a lot out of them.

Oklahoma is 9-1 ATS versus top-caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game over the last two seasons.  The Sooners are 6-0 ATS vs. teams who are called for three-plus less fouls than their opponents over the last two years.  Roll with Oklahoma Friday.

20* WKU/Marshall Conference USA GAME OF THE WEEK on Western Kentucky +24

I faded Marshall with success last week as they only beat UAB 23-18 on the road as an 18-point favorite.  I will be fading them for many of the same reasons as last week.  They are simply overvalued due to their 11-0 straight up and 7-3 ATS records on the season.

The betting public has been quick to back Marshall because they have covered so many big spreads this year.  But, they have played such a soft schedule up to this point that it's almost a joke.  Their last game against UAB was the toughest opponent that they have played up to this point, and they barely won.

The other 10 wins have come against Miami (Ohio), Rhode Island, Ohio, Akron, Old Dominion, Middle Tennessee, FIU, FAU, Southern Miss and Rice.  If that's not a cupcake schedule, I don't know what is.  Now, like UAB, they play another opponent capable of putting up a fight this week.

Western Kentucky (6-5) comes in playing its best football of the season.  It is 3-0 in its last three games overall.  It beat UTEP 35-27 to start the streak, dominated Army 52-24 while outgaining the Black Knights by 228 yards, and dominated UTSA 45-7 while outgaining the Roadrunners by 232 yards.

The thing you have to like about the Hilltoppers is that they can score with anyone, so they are capable of keeping up with the Thundering Herd.  They average a whopping 41.9 points per game while ranking 11th in the country in total offense at 508.1 yards per game.  Marshall averages 44.9 points per game to compare.

Plus, you have to consider that the Hilltoppers have played the tougher schedule.  Senior quarterback Brandon Doughty has been brilliant, completing 67.4 percent of his passes for 3,853 yards with 36 touchdowns and only eight interceptions this year.  He would love nothing more than to knock off Marshall in the final regular season game of his career.

However, the Hilltoppers are no one-trick pony.  They have proven fully capable of moving the ball on the ground behind the outstanding play of running back Leon Allen, who has rushed for 1,253 yards and 11 touchdowns while averaging 5.5 per carry.  Anthony Wales (423 yards, 4 TD, 6.2/carry) has been a nice compliment to him.

Western Kentucky is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games following two or more consecutive ATS wins.  The Hilltoppers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  Take Western Kentucky Friday.

15* Nebraska/Iowa Big Ten No-Brainer on Iowa PK

The Iowa Hawkeyes and Nebraska Cornhuskers both blew their chances at getting to the Big Ten Championship Game with losses last week.  Now, they both look to get back up off the mat this week after their crushing losses and to finish the regular season with one final victory.

I like Iowa's chances of getting up off the mat a lot more because its loss wasn't as crushing because it was expected to lose, while Nebraska was expected to win.  Nebraska lost at home to Minnesota 24-28 as an 8.5-point favorite, while Iowa lost at home to Wisconsin 24-26 as an 8.5-point underdog.

The Cornhuskers were coming off a 24-59 loss at Wisconsin the previous week, and I don't believe they will care a whole lot about winning this final game of the season.  Iowa has showed some fight and I like it's mental state much better, especially considering this is Senior Day at Kinnick Stadium.  That will be motivation enough to get back up off the mat.

Iowa has played very well at home in Big Ten play.  It has gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS at home within the conference with blowout wins over Indiana (45-29) and Northwestern (48-7) as well as that 2-point loss to Wisconsin (24-26).

I really like what I've seen from this Iowa offense that last two weeks to compliment a very good defense.  The Hawkeyes put up 587 total yards in their 30-14 win at Illinois two weeks ago, limiting the Illini to just 235 total yards in the process.  They also racked up 412 total yards against a very good Wisconsin defense last week.

Nebraska only managed 180 total yards in its 24-59 loss to Wisconsin.  It gave up 581 rushing yards in that game, and then followed it up by giving up 281 rushing yards to Minnesota last week.  Iowa is a team that loves to run the football as it has rushed for over 100 yards in 10 of its 11 games this season.  The Hawkeyes should have a big day on the ground and get continued solid play from QB Jake Rudock.

Iowa went into Nebraska last year and beat the Huskers 38-17.  The Huskers were in a similar position in that game as they knew they would not be going to the Big Ten Championship.  That is the case again this season, and I don't expect the Huskers to put up much of a fight at all.  They are also battling a ton of key injuries right now that will hamper their chances.

Iowa is 23-4 ATS in its last 27 games versus excellent rushing teams that average 230 or more rushing yards per game.  The Hawkeyes are 25-4 ATS in their last 29 versus excellent rushing teams that average 5.25 or more yards per carry.  Iowa is 17-3 ATS in its last 20 vs. great offensive teams that score 37 or more points per game.  The Hawkeyes are 41-18-1 ATS in their last 60 games following a S.U. loss.  Roll with Iowa Friday.

20* NIU/WMU MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Northern Illinois +7.5

There are three teams tied atop the MAC West standings with 6-1 records with a chance to play in the MAC Championship against Bowling Green next week.  Two of them square off today in Northern Illinois and Western Michigan, while the other is Toledo.

It's almost a given that Northern Illinois or Toledo will advance.  That's because Toledo plays cupcake Eastern Michigan today and is listed as a 23-point favorite.  It will surely win that game.  Toledo would make it with a Western Michigan win against Northern Illinois.

The only way that Western Michigan will be going to the championship game is if it wins today and Toledo loses, so that is almost out of the question.  The players know that a Toledo loss is unlikely, so they have that in the back of their heads and probably feel defeated right now.

Northern Illinois, meanwhile, gets into the MAC Championship with a win.  It has a head-to-head win over Toledo so it would own the tiebreaker, while WMU lost to Toledo and would lose that tiebreaker.  So, from a motivational perspective, you do not want your money on Western Michigan, but you want it on NIU given the situation.

Western Michigan is way overvalued in this game given the circumstances.  But the biggest reason it is overvalued is the fact that it has covered the spread in 10 consecutive games.  The betting public has taken notice and has jumped on them, forcing the oddsmakers to set this number higher than it should be.

NIU is a perennial MAC Championship Contender that has been to the title game in four consecutive seasons, winning two of them.  So, they are used to being in this spot, but it wasn't a given this year.  This team has come out and earned it by going 9-2 this season despite many picking them to finish outside of 1st place.

What has been most impressive about NIU is its ability to overcome the losses of stud quarterbacks in recent years.  It is still putting up 30.5 points and 440.5 yards per game this season, including 251 rushing and 5.0 per carry. 

Quarterback Drew Hare has been an absolute stud, completing 61.3% of his passes for 1,720 yards with 14 touchdowns and only one interception, while also rushing for 754 yards and five touchdowns while averaging 6.2 per carry.

Western Michigan has played one of the softest schedules you can imagine, which is the biggest reason for its 8-3 record.  It has lost to the three best teams it has faced in Purdue (34-43), Virginia Tech (17-35) and Toledo (19-20).  I would argue that NIU is the best team that it has faced up to this point.

Northern Illinois is a perfect 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog.  It is coming back to win these games by an average of 21.8 points per game.  Another thing you have to like about the Huskies is that they last played on November 18th, while WMU last played on November 22nd.  That's an extra four days of rest for the Huskies compared to the Broncos.  Bet Northern Illinois Friday.

15* Seahawks/49ers Thanksgiving Night DESSERT on San Francisco PK

These teams are pretty much mirror images of one another. There is little that separates them in terms of the way they play. Both rely on strong running games and elite defenses to win. I believe these teams would be equals on a neutral field, but since this game is being played in Santa Clara, the advantage clearly goes to the 49ers. They should be laying a field goal to the Seahawks, but since they’re not I believe there is value in backing them at a pick 'em.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series between Seattle and San Francisco. The home team is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings. The only exception was a 19-17 win by the 49ers in Seattle back in 2011. The 49ers have won each of their last five home meetings with the Seahawks. I fully expect this trend to continue as they will be the more hungry team because they’ll be out for revenge from a loss to the Seahawks in the NFC Championship last year.

The 49ers have pulled out some gutty wins here of late in close games. They got a huge game-winning drive late in the fourth quarter last week against the Redskins to pull out a victory. That game wasn’t as close as the final score of 17-13 would indicate as they outgained the Redskins 312-213 for the game. Their recent resolve in close games will serve them well in this contest as it figures to go down to the wire as well.

This San Francisco defense is getting healthy at the right time, but health hasn’t mattered all that much as this is clearly one of the deepest defenses in the league. The 49ers are giving up just 20.5 points per game while ranking 2nd in the NFL In total defense at 300.1 yards per game. That’s very impressive when you consider their opponents average 362 yards per game against everyone else, so they are holding them to 62 yards per game below their season averages.

Without question, the Seahawks have one of the best home-field advantages in the league, but it has been a completely different story on the road. The Seahawks are just 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in road games this season. Their only two wins have come against Washington (27-17) and Carolina (13-9), while their three losses have come to San Diego, St. Louis and Kansas City. This team is very beatable when they are away from the friendly confines of CenturyLink Field.

The 49ers have the perfect antidote to stop this Seattle offense.  The Seahawks rely heavily on the run, and the 49ers rank 7th in the league against the run, giving up just 92.9 yards per game.  They also have some very quick pass rushers on the edge led by Ahmad Brooks and Aldon Smith who have the quickness to chase down Russell Wilson when he scrambles.  Look for the Seahawks to struggle to do anything offensively against the 49ers Thursday night.

When teams have to play on short weeks, it certainly favors the home team.  That will be the case this week because the 49ers didn't have to travel anywhere after beating the Redskins at home last week.  They will be the more prepared team because of it as the Seahawks have to travel down from Seattle after their big win against the short-handed Cardinals last week.  That also sets the Seahawks up for a possible letdown spot off such a big win over the division-leading Cardinals, especially after beating the 49ers in the NFC Championship last year.  They may be a little too comfortable mentally heading into this one.

Seattle is 12-28 ATS in its last 40 off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival. The Seahawks are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games after allowing six points or less in their previous game. Seattle is 16-33-3 ATS in its last 52 games following a win by more than 14 points. San Francisco is 26-9-3 ATS in its last 38 games following an ATS loss. The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Roll with the 49ers Thursday.

20* LSU/Texas A&M ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on LSU -3

While it has certainly been a down season by LSU (7-4) standards, I have seen enough from this team to know that it is worthy of being more than a 3-point favorite at Texas A&M Thursday night. Its four losses have come to the likes of Mississippi State, Auburn, Alabama and Arkansas. Three of those teams are ranked in the top 15, while the other (Arkansas) is one of the most underrated teams in the country.

LSU even played both Mississippi State and Alabama very tough. It only lost 29-34 at home to Mississippi State, which is currently ranked No. 4 in the country. No. 1 Alabama needed overtime to beat LSU 20-13. If they can play with those two teams, the Tigers can certainly go into College Station and come away with a victory this week.

Simply put, this is a down year for Texas A&M (7-4). The Aggies are 3-4 in SEC play and have been thoroughly outplayed in each of their last four games despite going 2-2. They lost 59-0 at Alabama and were outgained by 430 yards in that contest. They barely beat Sun Belt foe Louisiana-Monroe 21-16 at home and should have lost that game as they were outgained by 104 yards. They did upset Auburn 41-38, but were outgained by 129 yards and never should have won.

The Aggies were also outgained by Missouri by 246 yards in their 27-34 home loss last time out. So, when you add up the yardage totals for their last four games, you find that the Aggies have actually been outgained by an average of 227.3 yards per game. That is the sign of a really bad team, and one that doesn’t belong on the same field as LSU Thursday night.

The difference in this game is going to be LSU’s running game against Texas A&M’s weak run defense. LSU averages 205 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry, while Texas A&M gives up 210 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry. The Tigers are going to be able to run at will on this soft Aggies’ defense. Texas A&M gave up 363 rushing yards to Auburn, 335 to Missouri, 298 to Alabama, 289 to Mississippi State, 285 to Arkansas, and 240 to Rice.  More of the same can be expected against the Tigers.

LSU has owned Texas A&M each of the last three seasons. It is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with the Aggies, winning by an average of 15.3 points per game. The Aggies were much stronger the last two years than they are this season. LSU beat Texas A&M 34-10 at home last year while outgaining the Aggies 517-299 for the game, or by 218 total yards. They rushed for 324 yards in the win.

Plays on road favorites (LSU) – after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game, with 5 offensive starters returning are 31-4 (88.6%) ATS since 1992. Texas A&M is 1-8 ATS in its last nine vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 10.0 points per game or more. The Tigers are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 road games after gaining 100 or less rushing yards in their last game.  The Aggies are 9-23 ATS in their last 32 vs. a team with a winning record.

Texas A&M is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after being outrushed by 125 or more yards in its previous game. Texas A&M is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games following a bye week. The Aggies are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  These three trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system going against Texas A&M.  Bet LSU Thursday.

20* Eagles/Cowboys Thanksgiving Day MAIN COURSE on Dallas -3

The Dallas Cowboys (8-3) are 8-1 this season when Tony Romo plays the entire 60 minutes. The only loss came in the opener against the 49ers back when he was rusty after missing much of training camp with a back injury. He appears fully healthy now in leading the Cowboys to back-to-back wins and 31 points each against the Jaguars and Giants since returning from another back injury suffered against the Redskins.

Romo leads a Dallas offense that is putting up 26.5 points and 386.8 yards per game this season, ranking 6th in the league in total offense. Without question, he has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL. He is completing 68.8 percent of his passes with 22 touchdowns and six interceptions while averaging 8.5 per attempt.

A big reason for his success has been the offensive line and running game behind DeMarco Murray, who has rushed for 1,354 yards and seven scores to lead the league in rushing.  In fact, the Cowboys are 2nd in the NFL in rushing at 150.1 yards per game as a team.

This Dallas offense should have its way with a Philadelphia defense that has been atrocious this year. The Eagles are giving up 25.0 points and 375.2 yards per game to rank 26th in the league in total defense. They have been even worse on the road, where they are 2-3 and giving up 30.2 points and 385 yards per game away from home.

Another big reason for Dallas’ resurgence this season has been its defense, which is giving up a respectable 21.8 points and 355.0 yards per game on the year. The Cowboys have been solid against the run, allowing just 107 rushing yards per game, so they should be able to hold LeSean McCoy in check in this one.

Philadelphia has looked good at home since Mark Sanchez took over at quarterback, but its two home wins with him under center have come against Carolina and Tennessee.  The Eagles were blown out in Sanchez's lone road start this year, a 20-53 beat down at the hands of Green Bay.  He completed just 59% of his passes and threw two picks in the loss, one that was returned for a touchdown.

Dallas is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Philadelphia over the past two seasons. The only game it lost was in Week 17 last year when Romo had to miss the game due to his back injury. Even then, the Cowboys only lost 22-24 and actually outgained the Eagles 414-366 for the game with Kyle Orton at quarterback. Look for Romo to improve to 4-0 in his last four starts against the Eagles with a win Thursday.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DALLAS) – off an extremely close road win by 3 points or less, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 37-14 (72.5%) ATS since 1983.  Another factor to consider is that this is a short week, which is much easier for the home team.  Traveling on a short week is very tough for the road team with only three days in between games and very little practice time.

Philadelphia is 6-15 ATS after playing a home game over the last three seasons. The Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games. Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record. The Eagles are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.  Take the Cowboys Thursday.

15* Tulsa/Oklahoma State CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma State -2.5

Many thought that the Oklahoma State Cowboys would take a step back this season with the losses of Marcus Smart (18.0 ppg, 4.8 apg) and Markel Brown (17.2 ppg, 5.3 rpg) to the NBA.  However, that has not been the case as they have opened 5-0 this season with all five wins coming by 13 points or more.

The Cowboys returned plenty of talent from last year's squad to be a force off a 21-win campaign last season.  Back are three starters in Le'Bryan Nash (13.9 ppg, 5.5 rpg), Phil Forte (13.3 ppg, 168 made 3-pointers L2 Years) and Michael Cobbins (4.5 ppg, 4.3 rpg).

Forte (17.8 ppg, 3.8 spg, 40% 3-pointers), Nash (17.8 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 2.4 apg) and Cobbins (9.0 ppg, 5.5 rpg) have all three taken their games to the next level.  Jeffrey Carroll (9.2 ppg, 5.2 rpg) and Anthony Hickey (8.0 ppg, 3.4 apg, 3.4 rpg) have both stepped in and added significant contributions to the starting lineup.

Frank Haith enters his first season as Tulsa head coach.  He steps into a decent situation because this is a team that went 21-13 last year and figures to be a solid squad again in 2014.  He also has three starters back in James Woodard (15.5 ppg, 5.9 rpg), Shaquille Harrison (9.6 ppg) and Rashad Smith (12.0 ppg, 4.9 rpg).

Still, it's going to take some time for this team to gel in Haith's new system, and that has shown.  Tulsa has opened 3-1 this season with a bad loss at Oral Roberts by a final of 68-77.  Its three wins have come against LA-Lafayette (64-53), Abilene Christian (65-39) and Auburn (53-35).  That's the same Lafayette team that lost at Auburn 105-80.  That's the same Auburn team that lost 90-59 at Colorado.

Oklahoma State is 98-68 ATS in its last 166 non-conference games.  Travis Ford is 62-38 ATS as a favorite as the coach of Oklahoma State.  Ford is 9-1 ATS in home games after leading their last three games by 5-plus points at the half as the coach of the Cowboys.  Take Oklahoma State Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Hornets +6

The Charlotte Hornets are clearly not off to the start they wanted this season after making the playoffs last year.  However, they are nowhere near as bad as their 4-11 record would indicate, and as a result they are showing excellent value tonight as 6-point home underdogs to the Portland Trail Blazers.

Six of the Hornets' 11 losses this season have come by 5 points or less.  So, with a little better fortune in close games, this team would be a .500 squad.  They have lost six in a row coming in so the betting public wants nothing to do with them, which has created some nice line value here.  Three of their last four losses have been by 5 points or fewer.

The Hornets come into this game not only highly motivated to put an end to their six-game skid, but also to get revenge on the Blazers.  They lost to Portland on the road 100-102 back on November 11th.  They were 6.5-point road underdogs in that game, and now they are 6-point home dogs in the rematch.  That fact alone shows you that there is a ton of value in backing the Hornets.

The Blazers are clearly overvalued right now due to going 10-1 straight up and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  The betting public has taken notice and has been quick to back them tonight, driving this line up higher than it should be.  The Blazers are only 3-2 on the road this season with their three wins coming against Denver, Boston and Philadelphia.

Plays on home underdogs (CHARLOTTE) - after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread against opponent hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread are 105-61 (63.3%) ATS since 1996.  This trend just goes to show that there is value in backing teams that have hit a rough patch ATS while fading teams that have been covering machines ATS.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series.  Roll with the Hornets Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Philadelphia 76ers +8

At 0-14 on the season, the Philadelphia 76ers are desperate for their first victory.  That 0-14 record also has the betting public wanting nothing to do with them, which has created some excellent line value for us to pounce on tonight as they host the Brooklyn Nets.

Philadelphia has been much more competitive in its last two games and should put up a good fight tonight as well.  It covered in an 83-91 loss at New York as an 11-point underdog, then came back with a cover in a 104-114 home loss to Portland as a 13-point dog.

Brooklyn (5-8) isn't worthy of laying 8 points to any team on the road.  Its five wins this season have come against Detroit, Oklahoma City (twice), New York and Orlando.  It has lost six of its last seven games overall coming into this one with five of those losses coming by 8 points or more.  The Nets are just 2-5 on the road this season where they are getting outscored by 5.7 points per game.

Philadelphia played Brooklyn very tough last year in the final three meetings of the season.  It went a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with the Nets with all three being decided by 6 points or less.  It won 121-120 as a 5.5-point home dog, lost 108-102 as a 9-point road dog, and lost 101-105 as an 11-point home dog.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Nets are 5-12 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  I would argue that the 76ers have more talent than last year, while the Nets have less.

The 76ers are 8-0 ATS in home games after three straight games where they allowed a shooting percentage of 47% or higher over the last three seasons.  The Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Philadelphia is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following a double-digit home loss.  The 76ers are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 vs. Eastern Conference foes, including 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. NBA Atlantic Division teams.  Philadelphia is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 home games.  Bet the 76ers Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma -3.5

The Oklahoma Sooners are one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball heading into the 2014-15 season.  They have a legitimate shot at ending Kansas' 10-season streak of winning at least a share of the Big 12 Title.

Oklahoma returns four starters from a team that made the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year and went 23-10 in 2013-14.  All four starters started all 33 games, and none is a senior.  They are F Ryan Spangler (9.6 ppg, 9.3 rpg), G Jordan Woodard (10.3 ppg, 4.6 apg), G Isaiah Cousins (11.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg) and G Buddy Hield (16.5 ppg, 4.4 rpg).

Head coach Lon Kruger has added six newcomers to the mix, including Houston transfer TaShawn Thomas, who won his appeal and is granted immediate eligibility.  Thomas (15.4 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 2.7 bpg with Houston in 2013-14) could be their best player and is a huge addition.

Yes, I realize that Oklahoma did lose at Creighton 63-65, but the Bluejays are obviously better than expected as they have yet to lose a game.  Also, keep in mind that the Sooners had an 18-point lead in that game and it was a complete fluke that they lost.

While Oklahoma has almost everyong back, UCLA loses almost everyone, including a couple of players to the NBA.  They only return one starter in Norman Powell (11.4 ppg, 2.8 rpg).  I realize that they have opened 4-0 this season, but they haven't played anyone yet as their four games came against Montana State, Coastal Carolina, Nicholls State and Long Beach State all at home.

The Bruins lose Kyle Anderson (14.6 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 6.5 apg), Jordan Adams (17.4 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and Zach LaVine (9.4 ppg) all to the NBA.  Also gone are key players Travis Wear (7.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg) and David Wear (6.5 ppg, 3.8 rpg).  These players accounted for two-thirds of the Bruins' scoring last year.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKLAHOMA) - in a game involving two teams who had good records (60% to 80%) from last season, with 3+ more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first ten games of the season are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS since 1997.  Bet Oklahoma Wednesday.