Green Bay will be at Jerry's World this week, the same place they knocked Dallas out of the postseason back in January. The Packers pulled off a 34-31 upset and both teams blew by the total of 53.This time sportsbooks sent out a total of 53.5 and it has been lowered to 52.5 or 52.I think the public has this wrong. Aaron Rodgers and Dak Prescott are both capable of big games and are surrounded by players that can make that happen. Since the season opener for both clubs, the defenses have not been close to dominating and when to realize these two are 10-1 OVER playing each other in the Lone Star State, you can now understand what I have bet on. 

The Rams are on a 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS when hosting Seattle and are playing their best football in several years. Naturally one would think they are in prime position to knock the Seahawks off once again, right? I say wrong, and it comes down to a simple level of motivation for the Seahawks. In all five of those past games, Seattle was the team expected to win, playing as a road favorite all five times. Naturally, HC Pete Carroll’s team was all too familiar with being the “hunted” team. Now, they are the hunter, and I think you’ll find a highly motivated Seahawks’ team take the field on Sunday because of it. Seattle is also coming off its best game of the year this past Sunday, so it’s almost ideal timing for a game with this level of divisional magnitude. Of course, they have been in big games like this for most of the past five or six seasons. It is Los Angeles that is new to the big game scene, and while they might have the confidence and are playing well, the Rams’ lack of big game experience as well as a likely empty stadium won’t be enough to put them over the top. Seattle wins a hotly contested affair.

Buffalo is off to stunning start seeing the front office seemed to right off 2017 by trading a couple of their best players in the preseason. But give the Bills and new coaching staff credit for taking the approach of rebuilding is for another Buffalo team, not this one and they are playing fantastic defense and mistake-free offense. Cincinnati finally got first victory last week and the new offensive coordinator is playing to Andy Dalton's strengths, with the deeper passes coming. The Bengals were obviously better than 0-3 and should have knocked off Green Bay. In this AFC matchup, I am just not convinced Buffalo can win two straight on the road and or cover the spread in this situation. Cincy by 6 or 7 over the Bills. 

Benchmark battle for both Pac-12 clubs this week. Stanford has rebounded from two setbacks and if they want have shot at winning at North Division, they cannot afford any more losses before facing both Washington schools. The Cardinal defense is not the same as year's prior as ranking 96th nationally against the run proves. Utah is 4-0 SU and ATS and might not have dynamic QB Tyler Huntley for either after he was hurt at Arizona. Senior backup Troy Williams has plenty of starts for the Utes. Check this out, Utah is solid 36-19 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points and 31-14 ATS when playing with two weeks or more of rest. The Utes outright!

While the Spartans being 9-0 ATS against Michigan of late might scares some people, Michigan State is 17-2 as underdogs against teams off a win and cover. 

The LSU situation is already unraveling with Ed Orgeron as head coach, just in its first year. The Tigers have played three straight poor games and when inspecting the numbers closer, there strength's under Les Miles have all but disappeared. LSU beat opposing teams with big offensive lines and overpowered the other team's O-Line with at least NFL-sized defensive linemen. Now the Tigers do not have the drive blockers and are changing offensive philosophy and they are undersized in the defensive front and are getting pushed around. Not having a dependable quarterback only exacerbates the situation. Florida is not a lot better than LSU, but what coach Jim McElwain has done is develop players that win in the four quarter of close contests and they are now down to -2.5 point favorites. Let's add in the hatred for LSU from Florida athletic department from last season and you have motivated Gators who win by at least 10 points. 

Navy is 11-3 and 10-4 ATS against the Air Force and Falcons are 0-6 ATS in this game if coming off a loss. 

Last week Minnesota came into game against Maryland 3-0, with a stout defense and punishing ground attack, already shaped in the image of new head coach P.J. Fleck. In the first drive it was clear that the Golden Gophers did not have the foot speed to keep up with more athletic Terrapins squad and with an injured offense line, Minnesota ended up being upset 31-24 as 13-point home favorites. Now the Gophers travel to Purdue and face a different offense that spreads them out by passing and the Boilermakers program has been energized by their first-year coach Jeff Brohm. With Minnesota 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS in previous visits to West Lafayette, take the Purdue.

This rivalry battle was rescheduled because of hurricane and carries a great deal of importance for the Miami. Duke is much improved and Miami handled them, especially in the second half with superior speed on both sides of the ball. Coach Mark Richt inherited quality talent and has organized it a better fashion, while adding his new recruits. While the Miami defense will allow some yards, they are only permitting 16.3 PPG and are 11-3 ATS as favorites under Richt.  With or without Deondre Francois, Florida State was overrated, particularly on offense, where the offense live does not get a push and the Seminoles average 3.1 YPC. Good game but make it the Canes' by 7.

Last week, beleaguered Mississippi was flattened by Alabama 66-3. The Rebels return to the state of Alabama this Saturday and head to the plains to take on Auburn and this could get ugly also. Ole Miss could not move the ball against the Crimson Tide's sixth-ranked defense, thus it stands to reason they will have similar problems against the Tigers, who are rated 9th in total defense. After scuffling early, the Auburn offense has found rhythm with over 470 yards in two SEC games, averaging 50 PPG. This is why for college football picks I have no problem handing out the 22.5 points to Mississippi.  

The Red Wolves are 1-2 SU and ATS and enter SBC play among the favorites, having won or shared a piece of the title in four of the past six years. Arkansas State has big and physical offensive line (by SBC standards) and talented quarterback in Justice Hansen, who directs the No. 9 passing offense in the country at 351.7 yards a game. Hansen hurt his back against SMU, but is now expected to play. Though he might not be 100 percent and the Red Wolves running game has not been imposing  121 YPG, Georgia Southern has surrendered 5.9 YPC and is 124th nationally, which should allow Arkansas State to run or pass depending on the flow of the game. I fully expect Georgia Southern to be fired up for conference opener. However, the talent and skill are not there to hold up over four quarters and Arkansas State is 12-4 ATS against league foes and is 10-2 ATS versus rushing defenses allowing 4.75 or more rushing yards per carry. 

It was not a good first month for the state of Ohio football. The Buckeyes were upset at home by Oklahoma and Cincinnati and Cleveland have yet to get in the win column. It is not a total surprise the Browns are winless coming of 1-15 campaign, but seeing the Bengals at 0-3 is head scratcher. Cincy enters this Battle of Ohio as field goal favorite and finally showed they are capable of winning, taking Green Bay to OT at Lambeau Field, but unable to put them away. The Browns will be motivated to pick their first win of the year, but are 2-10 ATS as home underdogs since 2015. 

Last week, Tennessee essentially dominated Seattle at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball for three quarters, until what seemingly always occurs in the NFL, the team trailing has a comeback to make those on the other team squirm when watching. Houston did not dominate New England, but they certainly went toe to toe with them. The Texans defense, like many before them could not stop Tom Brady as crunch time and lost. Look for Houston to be super motivated at home, not wanting to fall two games behind the Titans after just a quarter of the season and remember, Tennessee is 2-9 ATS playing against a team with a losing record. Houston Outright!

There were warning signs Miami might struggle even against the Jets and they all proved to be true in 20-6 loss that was not that close. This is terrible time for Miami to have London game, having not played at home yet and Dolphins fans are wondering was the setback a wake-up call or a sign of things to come for Miami? The Fins are ugly 15-34 ATS off two road games. We won't know for weeks if New Orleans really saved their season with upset at Carolina, however, they saved themselves from 0-3 start. Given this will not be a home game for Miami, that has to be advantageous for the Saints, who are 8-1 ATS off a division clash. 

Texas A&M opened as -8 point favorite, flew to -10 and have come back past that point at -7. There is a fair amount of sharp bettors that do not trust Kevin Sumlin as coach of the Aggies and I cannot disagree since he is 12-23 ATS at Kyle Field. Nevertheless, Will Muschamp has not come across as America's next Nick Saban and South Carolina offense has been brutal the last couple games. I see too much offensive speed with the Aggies and they will end winning 34-23, covering the number. 

I know, Charlotte at Florida International sounds like somebody betting games under a witness protection program, but I have my reasons. If you discard Charlotte scoring 31 points against some college named North Carolina A&T (and still losing), they have tallied seven total points in three other encounters. We are not talking about a who's who in college football either, as two of those losses were to Eastern Michigan (24-7) and Georgia State (28-0). If you pulled out your preseason college football magazines, neither of those teams are expected to win the MAC or Sun Belt conferences. Like the 49ers, FIU is not going to win Conference USA, however, I have quality system that is 35-10 ATS that says the Panthers cover the spread and off upset of Rice, they are 5-0 ATS off SU dog win and facing team off consecutive SU losses. 

Last week I cashed a winner on UL-Monroe in a fantastic situation and I am coming right back on them tonight. I am the first to admit the Warhawks might be a little flat to start off after OT victory against main rival Louisiana U., nonetheless, there is nothing to indicate that Coastal Carolina in its first year of FBS football can crawl inside of a spread of +7.5. Just last week the Chanticleers were a +3.5 point home underdog to a very good Western Illinois squad and they were waxed 52-10. Monroe has too much offense and pulls away in the second half. 

With all the turmoil of the season to date, the Seminoles their season is on the brink and while Wake Forest is 4-0, the best team they have faced is Boston College. Florida State by 14 or more. 

Having seen Georgia and Tennessee multiple times, this outcome appears lopsided. The game being in Knoxville will help the Vols, still where does the offense come from against Bulldogs defense that is surrendering 11.5 PPG to opponents averaging better 28 a game? Georgia also has a running game that can pound away or take one to the house from 50 yards and Tennessee is conceding 5.1 yards a carry. One would surmise the Vols might need additional volunteers to slow the Dawgs down. I will polish off this choice with this system: Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points, off three or more consecutive Under's, allowing 17 or less points per game, are sensational 22-3 ATS the last decade. Georgia by 13 or more.

The Orange have good offensive club and N.C. State is off big upset of Florida State and I expect them to be a little flat. Besides the Wolfpack are known for up and down performances. 

The University of Minnesota saved itself after clumsy firing of Tracy Claeys by hiring P.J. Fleck. This highly driven coach completely changed Western Michigan's fortunes, taking them from 1-11 to 13-0 and Cotton Bowl bid in four years, where they lost to Wisconsin. Fleck is a stickler for details and he already has the Golden Gophers playing strong run defense (59 YPG) and running the ball controlling the clock. Maryland was ultra impressive in upset of Texas in opener, but has lost regular starting quarterback Tyrell Pigrome and last week his backup Kasim Hill in ugly 38-10 home loss to Central Florida. With a third-string quarterback going against stingy run defense, Minnesota get the call against the Terrapins and wins by 20 or more.