UtahWins and Covers Byowning time of possession and not making mistakes. Utah normally does a good job in holding on to the pigskin at 32:01 minutes a game. If they play wisely, they could do even more than that against West Virginia, who was only at 27:44 T.O.P. For Utah that would mean running the ball and looking to wear down the Mountaineers defense as the game progresses. The Utes were often very accommodating to the opposition, averaging two turnovers a game. The Utah defense had decent numbers, permitting 23.9 points a game and 353 yards. If West Virginia had Grier and RB Justin Crawford (no-show because of NFL draft), there would be greater concern about the Utes defense, since they struggled against teams that had speed and ability to manufacture points with expediency. Utah will have the quarterback edge with a healthy Tyler Huntley and as long as he limits mistakes, the Utes should be in good shape. In addition, Utes coach Kyle Whittingham knows a thing or two about bowl game preparation, with an astonishing 10-1 SU (8-3 ATS) record. Lastly, Play Against teams like the 'Teers rushing for 4.3 to 4.8 YPR, against an average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR), after allowing 225 or more rushing yards in two straight games.  Clubs like West Virginia are abysmal 4-26 ATS. 

Houston had some ups and downs in Major Applewhite's first year at the helm, losing three times in games they had late leads or were unfocused against beatable competition. Make no mistake, the Cougars have ability with the right mindset. No such problems at Fresno State as Jeff Tedford walked right and fixed the attitude of the players and program and they responded immediately and could have 10-win season after going 1-11. The Bulldogs defense was bullish and is ninth in points allowed at 17.2 PPG. This group runs to the ball and gang tackles with purpose. The offense was what you saw from Tedford at Cal, as they run fairly effectively and throw the ball the same and play with real passion. I will back the more stable Fresno State team to finish 11-2 ATS.

Kansas City has righted the ship and wraps up another AFC West title with a victory over Miami. What we are seeing from the Chiefs is not new when it comes to complete turnarounds. This year's 5-0 start, followed by 1-6 downturn, leading to winning their last two games has more or less been done before by K.C. In 2015, Kansas City won opener and proceeded to drop five in a row. Next, like magic, the Chiefs for some reason got blazing hot and reeled off 10 consecutive wins, including one in the playoffs. Though 10 points might sound like a lot for Kansas City to give to Miami, the Chiefs defense can rattle Jay Cutler in miscues. Additionally, the offense is back to scoring almost 30 PPG in past three outings. The Chiefs continue winning ways with 31-14 victory.

It has been a long year for Denver, but a third consecutive victory would remove some the sting of a tough season. In the Broncos past two wins, we see what they do best. Denver is a run-first offense, which sets up play-action passing and the defense can stifle opposing teams if not placed in terrible field position series after series. Washington hopes - win one, lose two - trend does not continue after beating Arizona. The Redskins were fortunate to come away with the 'W', but as we as NFL bettors understand, any win is a good one. If Washington cannot do better 50 yards rushing, like they have averaged in last three outings, the Skins assuredly will fall to defeat against Denver. Broncos outright!

The Los Angeles Chargers after three strong defensive showing were torched for 30 points against Kansas City and basically lost their chance to win the AFC West. It did not help the Chargers that the offense committed four turnovers, placing them frequently in terrible field position. The Bolts defense should return to normal against a feeble Jets offense that is not the same without Josh McCown. Carson's finest have enjoyed a few shining moments on offense this season, however, 22.2 PPG in hardly dynamic. I'll back the lower score with the Chargers 8-2 UNDER versus AFC competition. 

South Florida went toe to toe on the road with unbeaten Central Florida, but lost in the waning moments by seven. If you have not seen Quinton Flowers play quarterback, you have to watch. Flowers runs the No.9 offense in the country that is equally adept at running (265 YPG) as it is at passing (243 YPG). Flowers is a true dual threat and the running backs and receivers have outstanding speed and they do everything in a hurry, averaging 84 plays a game. South Florida's defensive looked good in allowing 343 YPG and should know what to expect. South Florida has edges they can exploit against a pedestrian Texas Tech defense with their speed. Plus, Flowers gives the Bulls a decided edge at quarterback.

The Chippewas were 8-4 and 7-5 ATS this year and closed their season white-hot with a 5-0 SU and ATS finish. What changed for the Chips, their offense found another gear. Against mostly stronger competition, Central Michigan averaged mere 21.8 points a contest. They enter this bowl contest on a major roll at 41.2 PPG. What set the table was the continued development of the running game, which averaged 178 YPG, after being at 119.5 YPG. This will be important against Wyoming who has been somewhat vulnerable to the rush in allowing 172 YPG. The Chippewas were 5-2 SU and ATS on the road this season, which usually matters in bowls and they are 9-2 ATS after two or more straight spread winners.

While the Final Four participants will be excited to play their games, I'm not sure a there will be squad more ready to play than UAB. With a football program that was closed down, coach Bill Clark never lost faith, the Blazers were born again and were 8-4 SU and ATS. This is a treat beyond words for them and this is their chance to say thanks for all that never gave up hope. Ohio U. lost their last two games and chance to win the MAC East and while the Bahamas is a nice secondary place to play, not certain about the Bobcats intensity. Also MAC bowl teams are 4-15 ATS off a loss by six or less points. Look for UAB to slide under the oddsmakers number in a three-point game either way. 

I have really been impressed with the speed of several C-USA teams and no doubt FIU being from Florida has the same qualities. Temple is a nice club, but they lost six times for a reason. Also, underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points like FIU, after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games are a sharp 32-9 ATS.

Baltimore had to be immensely disappointed they failed to knock off Pittsburgh when they had the chance Sunday night. Nonetheless, there were several positives. Joe Flacco and the passing offense showed a pulse and the offensive line whipped Pittsburgh in running the ball for 152 yards. The Browns have in recent games done a great deal right, but crucial mistakes are destroying them. With a 3-10 ATS record this season and 2-9 ATS as a home underdog of seven points or less hard to see Cleveland changing much again versus Ravens defense.

After being run over by the Rams the previous week, Arizona could have lost to first place Tennessee and hardly anyone would have noticed. But the Cardinals showed moxie and determination and "kicked" the Titans 12-7, thanks to four field goals. Arizona can continue drive to finish with a winning record in Washington, but it should be noted they are 1-5 ATS on the road this season. That might not be a problem if the Redskins put up a third stinky performance. Washington has numerous injuries and has played like a team mailing it in the past two weeks, which reflects poorly on coach Jay Gruden. Let's remember, home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like the Redskins, allowing 24 or more points a game, after a loss by 10 or more points, are 11-33 ATS since 2008.

Even in the loss to the New York Jets, you could see Kansas City was going to find a victory soon and they did at home against Oakland with ease. The L.A. Chargers will not be as soft as a comforter, like the Raiders for the Chiefs. Philip Rivers is back to his salty self and with receivers having returned, the Bolts offense (and defense) has gone into another gear during this four-game winning streak in averaging 32.7 PPG and their talented defensive front seven has shut off opposing running games like a faucet the past three contests. I am well aware the Chargers have dropped seven in a row to K.C., nevertheless, they look like the better club and take control of the AFC West with a win and cover.

On my video I said be patient on Camellia Bowl total because it could keep dropping and it has. Look for both teams to score at least 30 points for easy OVER.

The Cure Bowl will not be laden with excitement with Georgia State taking on Western Kentucky. Nonetheless, for my money the edge go to the Hilltoppers.  Georgia State was outscored 270-217 this season and having watched them twice, their quarterback is either fairly accurate or not at all, especially when facing pass rush. Western Kentucky was not up to its usual standards offensively, having problems in the red zone and with turnovers. However, Mike White is still a good quarterback and his team should be able to put up at least 30 points on a not so speedy defense. All three of my models have the Hilltoppers winning by at least nine points and I will back that up. 

I like where Baltimore is going but Pittsburgh has endured a rough week. With reports Ryan Shazier might be done playing football, the Steelers rally around their fallen teammate and beat Ravens by 13. 

Lose one game in one of the most difficult places to play in the NFL and suddenly you are a bum. OK, maybe I'm taking this a little too far, but how else do you explain that Philadelphia was considered the best team in the NFL last Sunday afternoon and now they are a rising road underdog to the L.A. Rams. Of course I realize the Rams are a very good team, but I did not get the notice they suddenly have a home field advantage unless those that came dressed as empty seats the past two years have been closet fans. Plus, do not overlook the Eagles performance last week. Yes, they lost turnover battle 2-0, yet they hardly played poorly in outgaining the Seahawks by 115 total yards. Philly is 9-3 ATS this season and 13-3 ATS vs. teams scoring 29 or more points a game in the second half of the season.

We all understand the G-Men stink and are a rotten team, yet when you factor in coaching change, Manning unquestionably will be laser-focused and it is home game against Dallas, anything less than New York's best effort would be a stunner. G-Men cover, maybe win outright.

With Houston 1-5 SU in past six games, it might have been a bit disconcerting to see them climb from -1 to -3 (now -2.5) even against San Francisco. Sure the 49ers lost their initial first eight contests, but they have won two of three and are making strides. Besides, if you saw the highlights of Houston's game, they had players dropping left and right to injury. But here is a question for you as a football bettor, do you really believe the Niners can win two straight road games after surprising Chicago? I certainly do not and San Fran is  0-7 ATS vs. teams scoring 24 or more points a game.

The Army/Navy game always holds a certain appeal and now it has more gusto with both teams having winning records again and Black Knights finally ending long losing streak in last year's battle. I will admit, I always have pulled for the Army, not sure exactly why, but have not bet on them many times over the years in this matchup. That will change in this year's contest. As noted in the game previews here, this is the lowest Navy (-3.5) has been favored in this game in 15 years. Army has covered six of the last eight meetings and they have gone from a team hoping they could win, to knowing they can after last year. The Black Knights of the Hudson outright.

One of the best home teams in football has blown up as a home underdog. That is correct, Seattle has been sent from +3.5 to +6 (now +5.5) versus the best team in the NFL, Philadelphia. The last time the Seahawks were a home underdog was 2012, 47 games ago (includes playoffs). A lot of pride in that Seattle uniform, making this a field goal or less outcome.

I went against Carolina and lost last week. Lessoned learned. As I mentioned here last week, Carolina was my favorite win totals pick for the season and now I just need one more victory in five games to secure a winner. That could very well happen this Sunday. The Panthers were tested by the Jets in was a flat game for them and they still prevailed. While revenge is hardly a sole reason to back any team, I think it matters this week since Carolina was smacked 34-13 at home by New Orleans. This Carolina club more closely resembles the one that went to the Super Bowl almost two years ago, with a defense that can take away offensive layers and offense that is continuing to evolve. While I really am impressed with the Saints have accomplished, with the chance of having three defensive starters out or at least a couple not close to 100 percent, the Panthers at +5.5 is too good to pass up. 

Wide receiver Keenan Allen return for the Chargers Philip Rivers was like getting the band back together. The Los Angeles offense the past couple weeks has functioned more like when Rivers was younger and Allen presence has freed up other players, with Rivers is taking full advantage of this. With Cleveland the second-worst defensive team in allowing points at 26.3 PPG, it would seem Carson, CA's favorite football team should exploit this. With the total at 43, the Browns have shown the ability to give points away and score in the fourth quarter of games that are over, which could provide a backdoor cover if necessary. Additionally, road teams like Cleveland scoring 17 or less points a game, after tallying that many or less in two straight contests are 28-5 OVER the next time out. 

Among the lowest scoring teams in the league are San Francisco at 17 points a game and Chicago right behind them at 16.1 PPG. In spite of this, neither team has played an inordinate amount of low scoring contests, though the Bears are close at 7-4 UNDER. However, if you subtract each club's highest scoring total in their past five outings, the Niners come in at 10.7 PPG and Chicago at 11.7 PPG. Maybe Jimmy Garoppolo provides a spark for San Fran, but the average score for both teams in road/home situations is below 40 points, which leads to an UNDER play. 

No lack of motivation for unbeaten Wisconsin, being an underdog against 10-2 Ohio State. The Badgers are in the college football playoff with a victory and while it is probably true the Buckeyes have better overall talent, against the same six foes each team played, Ohio State only had 0.2 PPG edge. Both teams offenses starts by running the ball and while the Buckeyes will get their fair share of yards, Wisconsin's defense allowed 54 YPG in November, for 1.7 YPC. Also, as long as QB Alex Hornibrook does not start making poor choices throwing, the Badgers can cover the six points. Big Ten title game dogs are perfect 6-0 ATS!

An Auburn sweep of Georgia all but assures they will be the first team with two losses in the College Football Playoffs, yet considering who they would have beaten, not many will complain. One major difference, no home cooking for the Tigers, as the crowd will be pro-Georgia in Atlanta. Auburn is the hottest team in the country and has shown they can win the line of scrimmage against the Bulldogs and they have a hot QB in Jarrett Stidham. If Georgia has anywhere close the same problems in the trenches, they will be beat again. But I do not think they will and with coach Kirby Smart off the Saban coaching tree, you know this week has been intense for the linemen. Look for the Dawgs to create third and short on offense and third and long on defense to win and my guess is Auburn's Kerryon Johnson's shoulder injury is a real deal. After thinking they blew chance to reach CFP, Georgia advances with victory.

TCU coach Gary Patterson was hoping for another shot at Oklahoma, firmly convinced the mistakes made in trailing Oklahoma 38-14 at the half were correctable and also having setting away from Norman. This is still not a good matchup for the Horned Frogs with top two running backs gone for the year and QB Kenny Hill not in the same class as Baker Mayfield as a big game performer. And it will not help standout safety Nick Orr will miss first half because of targeting call in last game. The Sooners loss to Iowa State reset their mental focus and the Oklahoma offense is all but unstoppable against Big 12 competition. Boomer Sooner by 12.

If you plan on watching the AAC championship, you better set aside most of the afternoon. Central Florida and Memphis have tremendous offenses and are the Top 2 scoring teams in the country. UCF has never lost to Memphis, with a perfect 10-0 record (6-4 ATS), which includes a 40-13 stomping back in September in Orlando. In that contest, the Tigers lost the turnover battle 3-1 and to win this championship they will have to flip that number in their favor. All the pressure is on UCF at home and they have only covered one of their last four contests, while Memphis is rolling since losing to the Knights with a 7-0 and 6-1 ATS (spread loss was by half point) record and road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points, in a game involving two teams averaging 440 or more YPG, after gaining 525 or more YPG over their last three outings, are 33-9 ATS.               

In many cases, a large favorite like Florida Atlantic at home in a conference championship, in which they won previous contest by 38 points, would lead to football bettor preferring the underdog. Complacency would seep in being at home and though they might win, they would fail to cover. I do not see that happening with Lane Kiffin, because he wants all the credit he can garner and going to a school like Florida Atlantic that was picked to finish 3rd to 5th in their division in Conference USA, only boosts Kiffin's stock. That is not the only rationale, as the Owls have the nation's No.6 rushing offense and averages 6.0 yards a carry, while the North Texas defense permits over 200 yards a game rushing and 4.8 YPC. FAU wins the C-USA title by 14 or more points. 

Two of the three shutouts Baltimore has have come against backup quarterbacks and this week they face Tom Savage, whose had a penchant for turnovers. In Houston's last four outings, they have 10 turnovers, which could be a Ravens feast! The Texans defense has been beatable all year in surrendering 26.2 PPG and this seems a great time to feed RB Alex Collins the rock, which would help Joe Flacco in the passing game. With Flacco and the Birds 6-0 ATS after winning by 20+ points and Houston 1-9 ATS under the Monday night lights, it's Baltimore by double digits. 

Philadelphia has the top scoring offense in the NFL at 32 PPG and they are 6-4 OVER on the season, so where does the idea of a lower score come into play? The Chicago defense has not played poorly and is middle of the pack at 22.1 PPG allowed. Carson Wentz and the Eagles offense has piled up the points, yet I wonder off big Dallas victory and having a three-game road trip on deck starting in Seattle, if we will Philly at its best. The Bears are 27th in ringing up points at 17.4 PPG and it would take quite an imagination to think they will push past that figure, with Philadelphia holding opponents to 16.6 PPG in last half dozen contests. 

Marcus Mariota might not be the franchise quarterback Tennessee envisioned after deplorable performance in Pittsburgh. Mariota had four interceptions and played like a rookie instead of a three-year veteran who knows the ropes. The Titans have four winnable contests on tap starting this week but can you really trust a team that is 6-15 ATS in road games and 0-7 ATS away after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored? One can only assume that Andrew Luck will be ready for 2018 campaign. While that is in the future, Jacoby Brissett has established himself as someone who can play at this level and though he makes mistakes, he's made strides to make the Colts more competitive than anyone would have imagined. Also, the Indianapolis defense has stepped there play and held last three opponents to 19.3 PPG. Indy by 1!

This is not your typical Air Force team. They are not running the triple option with normal precision and have committed at least two turnovers in seven of their 11 contests. During their current three-game losing streak, the Flyboys are being outscored 31-11. Utah State on the other hand is playing well and are 3-1 SU and ATS, with only setback to Boise State, which is hardly a disgrace. With the Falcons a two-point favorite and being 3-11 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half, let's call for Utah State to win the game. 

After betting against South Carolina in opener versus N.C. State, the Gamecocks caught my eye in how they played and what they do right. After that I wagered with them three other times, all as underdogs and cashed three tickets. South Carolina is taking care of the details on offense and defense which keeps them in contests. They convert on the big third downs and play great defense when they need that same third down stop. While I believe Clemson is the better squad, in spite of rivalry game, this means far more to the Gamecocks with the Tigers playing for a third consecutive ACC title and realistically having an opponent who can really challenge them in Miami. Because the game is in Columbia, the home team players will be talking about last year's 56-7 beat down and be ready to play and cover the number. 

This contest is known as - The Civil War - and based on the fact Oregon is 25-point favorite, this should not be much of a contest in Eugene. Oregon State's 58-27 loss to pedestrian Colorado State club in their opener set the table for a rotten season at 1-10 (3-8 ATS). The Beavers defense is being shredded for 40.6 PPG which would be disastrous against Oregon. The Ducks got their regular starting quarterback Justin Herbert back from a broken collarbone and they ambushed Arizona 48-28 last week. When Hebert has played, Oregon has averaged 49.3 PPG and Oregon State is not built for shootouts.

Home underdogs of 14.5 or more points like ILLINOIS, after allowing 37 points or more in last game, against opponent after allowing seven points or less in the first half of two straight games, are awful 9-39 ATS. 

N.C. State is a deserving 16-point home favorite over their cross-state rivals North Carolina. The Wolfpack have the better offense and defense coming in this contest and should handle the Tar Heels with ease. However, after starting 6-1, N.C. State has dropped three off four and while there is nothing wrong with losing to Notre Dame and Clemson, if the Wolfpack was really that good, they should not have struggled with Boston College and lost to Wake Forest the last couple games. On the other end of the spectrum, UNC is coming off consecutive wins and is on a 3-0 ATS run which, includes a cover over Miami-Fl. While I am not calling for upset, the Heels are 8-4 SU and ATS in Raleigh and cover the spread.

Currently, there is four-way tie for first place in the Sun Belt Conference and either visiting Appalachian State or Georgia State will remain in the hunt after this confrontation. Both teams are rested and coming off byes. The Mountaineers average 30.7 PPG on the season, yet when on the road, the offense is not as potent and they slide to 25 PPG. Additionally, on defense, App. State allows better than 11 PPG more away from home, which all leads to disappointing 0-5 ATS road record. Though Georgia State's pass offense is good enough to be ranked 28th nationally, they only average 21.9 PPG (26.3 PPG in SBC), but they are capable of outburst and I will call for them to win this skirmish outright.  

The Commonwealth Clash features two teams not playing their best football of the season. Virginia Tech has lost two of three and not covered their past three games. Virginia has dropped four of five and been turning the ball over with great regularity. So who the edge, the Cavaliers. The Hokies have NOTHING to play for, Virginia, oh, just losing 13 in a row to their state rival, that's all. Home underdogs in this spread and total range have covered 22 of the last 32 times this has come up and this is three-point game either way. 

The first game of the day is Minnesota at Detroit and if the Lions have any hope of chasing down the Vikings it has to win this contest. If Detroit does not win, they would be three games behind Minnesota in the NFC North race and join the masses in the NFC trying to hunt down a wild card slot. Those betting football are not liking the Lions chances and have pushed them from a Pick to +3. Minnesota is one of the top teams in their conference and are No.5 in the NFL in total offense and No.4 in total defense. While Detroit is expected to play the Vikings close, Minnesota is 11-2 ATS after three or more consecutive spread covers. Vikes by 6

#102  Akron -15

Back in sync on offense, Kent State down.

When I first saw this game I was going to pass on two slumping 3-6 teams. Then I started working the numbers. Turns out in all six scenarios, they have Denver winning by 5 to 7 points. While it might not be my favorite game of the week, it would be foolish by me to ignore the numbers.

Talk about bad timing. If Oakland could ever use a home game, this would have been the week, coming off a bye, trying to make a playoff push and taking on New England. Instead, they surrendered another matchup to Mexico City. With the Patriots staying at altitude this week in Denver before traveling south, they will look forward to Raiders defense that 22nd against pass and has yet to register an interception. New England is incredible 9-2 ATS as away favorites. Though the Raiders had questions coming into the season after 12-4 campaign, now there is even more and the solutions are not evident besides the clichéd, "everyone has to play better". Patriots by 12.

With a victory at Lambeau Field, Baltimore is in the thick of the wild card race at 5-5. There is nothing striking about the Ravens, being a better than average defensive crew and below average offensive team with Joe Flacco rather ordinary and not having many game-changing players to alter scoreboards quickly. Flacco has averaged 5.38 yards per attempt on the road this season, worst in NFL. Since the start of the 2015 season, Flacco has thrown 21 interceptions away from home, tied for second most in the league. Baltimore opened as favorites, yet are 1-8-1 ATS in nonconference contests since 2015. When coach Mike McCarthy finally took the shackles of Brett Hundley in crucial fourth quarter against Chicago, he responded with three sharp passes and running for first down. Packers win at Lambeau.

In Los Angeles, the winner of the Victory Bell is a really big deal in this cross-town rivalry. Nationally, the game itself is not particularly important, however, what makes this storied rivalry worth watching is the quarterback clash of Sam Darnold against Josh Rosen. Though Rosen will have a chance to shine, chances are he will be in usual come from behind mode. The UCLA defense is among the worst in the country, ranked 123rd in points allowed (38.6 PPG) and 124th in yards allowed (499). With USC having stopped turning the ball over three times a game, with just two in assembling 3-0 SU and ATS win streak, I do not see how the Bruins end up being within 20 points and the Trojans win 51-28.

Sometimes you just have to follow the numbers. Missouri has won four in a row, covered six straight and has outscored the opposition by eye-popping 37.2 PPG. (not a misprint) In this period the Tigers offense has averaged 53.7 PPG. Vanderbilt on the other hand has lost six of seven (1-5-1 ATS) after 3-0 start to the season. All six setbacks have come in the SEC where they have been carved up like Thanksgiving turkey for 46.1 PPG. In putting these numbers together for comparison, it is not real difficult to see what is the right side to back.

I think oddsmakers had it right to begin with, making Marshall a -1.5 point road favorite. Since Tuesday, the money has flowed towards UTSA, who is now at -1. Statistically, the teams are very similar, with the Roadrunners have an overall better defense, thought some the numbers have come against a weaker schedule. Drilling down we find Marshall is as good edge on both sides of the ball in a category known as - Yards Per Point. Basically whatthis tells us is the Thundering Herd is more efficient on offense and stingier on defense. Now let's close this out with Marshall 4-1 ATS on the road this season and UTSA is 0-4 ATS at home, which is hard to ignore.

Central Florida is three wins away from undefeated 12-0 season and returning to a Super Six bowl for the first time in four years. The Knights have the top scoring team in the country at 48.6 PPG and their defense is no slouch in permitting only 20.7 PPG. Still there are signs of stress since they are handing over two touchdown spread on the road to Temple. UCF has not covered a spread since Oct. 14th (0-2-1 ATS) and they are facing Owls crew who has improved since September and is 5-1 ATS, after 0-4 spread start. Temple has the passing offense to stay in the game and if the Knights allow 199 or more rushing yards like they have in past five games (on average), the Owls can put a scare into them.

After holding four straight Big 12 foes to 27 total points, TCU was torched for 38 points in 30 minutes against Oklahoma. The Horned Frogs mission is to win out and get another shot against the Sooners in Big 12 championship. TCU did not figure to have an easy time with Texas Tech on the road as they have permitted 32.2 PPG against the four best offenses they have taken on and the Red Raiders match that profile in scoring 38.2 PPG. It has also been a bad week on the injury front for TCU, first losing leading rusher Darius Anderson (season), then QB Kenny Hill not even travel with team and two other defensive starters are not expected to play. The Frogs are 1-4 and 0-5 ATS in Lubbock since 1993. With detractors calling for a new head coach at Texas Tech, Kliff Kingsbury needs to beat TCU and Texas next week to save his job. The line will be coming down so grab the Red Raiders as early as possible. 

In the history of betting terms, Auburn is in absolutely the classic situation. Last week the Tigers laid waste of No.1 Georgia 40-17. This opened up all sorts of possibilities for Auburn playing undefeated Alabama at home next Saturday, having a chance to win the SEC West and SEC championship a week later in rematch with Georgia. Playing UL- Monroe at home as a 37-point chalk-laden favorite is the very definition of a - sandwich game. The Auburn players know that beating the Warhawks by 30 or 50 means nothing and though Monroe has not faced a defense close to this, they are still averaging 37 PPG. This sure looks like a 45-17 Auburn victory and non-cover. 

The Central Michigan offense is averaging 44 PPG in their last three games and their winning by 22 PPG. Kent State has no way to compete because they don’t have a passing game. The Golden Flashes will play hard early, but they don’t have the offense to keep up any sort of pace. Take CMU with Kent State  2-11 ATS after playing three straight conference games. 

At 4-4 and 2-6 ATS, Atlanta is not close to the same club as a year ago. Everyone understands the play-caller deal is a "thing", yet that person has not committed a fumble, dropped a pass or thrown an interception yet. The Falcons have played like in a mental fog all year and with upcoming slate, unless they shake lethargy, they will be home this postseason. Atlanta is 1-8 ATS after a loss by six or less points. Dallas arrives in Atlanta playing up to their potential and on an even keel. The Cowboys have turned off the exterior noise and are just playing their game and should be rather confident coming in even without Zeke (for a game). Dallas is 8-1 ATS after two or more covers. 

Houston QB Tom Savage was savagely bad in loss to Indianapolis. Heading west to take on the Rams is not going to make the situation better, especially since the Texans could not contain Jacoby Brissett passing for Indianapolis and what Jared Goff and L.A. has to offer is far more lethal. How dynamic have the Rams been, they are the 11th team in the Super Bowl era to post at least three wins with a margin of victory of 30-plus points in the team's first eight games. If you are not mentally ready to play or quit against this L.A. North crew, you will be punished. The spread on this matchup might be large, but how does Houston play with the Rams in the contest? L.A. by 14 or more.

Jacksonville shed their inconsistent ways last week in victory over Cincinnati. The Jaguars have found ways to lose for years, but thanks to coach Doug Marrone and several coaching hires, Jacksonville is playing with increased maturity and is not thrown off by events they cannot control. I was super impressed the Jags did not waver after learning Leonard Fournette was not going to play last Sunday because of discipline and they still rushed for 148 yards and put up over 400 yards of offense on what had been a reliable Bengals defense. Part of Jacksonville's newfound confidence is they have one of the best defense's in the NFL, which has given up one or fewer touchdowns in five of eight outings this season. Though the Chargers are playing much better recently, they still are 0-6 ATS after two or more UNDER's and I will give the -4.5 with the Jaguars. 

Whether the stunning upset of Seattle saves Washington's season, that will be determined in time, nonetheless, it was a team win with a bruised and battered squad that is trying to hang in. As if the Seahawks defense was not tough enough, next is Minnesota for the Redskins, who is fourth in total defense and rested. The Vikings at 6-2 (5-3 ATS) are in a good position and with QB Case Keenum wisely managing games and improved offensive line, Minnesota is built to stay in games and close them out with a lead. Minny is 28-13 ATS and 11-2 ATS after two or more consecutive wins the past three years. 

Colorado State had second half leads against the Air Force and Wyoming in past two games and could not hold either and lost outright. That makes the Rams 0-4 ATS in past four games and their season is on a definite slide. Juxtapose that scenario against Boise State. After dreadful home loss to Virginia, the Broncos have gotten settled on offense and defense and have definitive identities. Boise State on the season is holding opponents almost 70 yards below season average and during five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS) has held opposing teams to a mere 12.6 PPG. On offense, the passing game has finally gotten back in gear and the Broncos are nicely positioned to run roughshod over Colorado State and wins by 14 or more. 

Wyoming still has chance to win division and is on 5-1 (6-0 ATS) roll, despite how the season started. If you subtract the 49 points Oregon scored on the Cowboys, Wyoming has given up only 14.7 PPG against everyone else.  For QB Josh Allen personally, it has not been the season he expected, however, pass protection and the lack of difference-makers at receiver have made matters worse, yet his team has been winning. The Falcons are off humbling 21-0 shutdown to Army, with only 95 rushing yards and the Black Knights never needed to pass once. Because these team meet annually, Wyoming knows how to defense Air Force option and has held them 83 yards a game below their season average the last three games. With the Cowboys 9-3 ATS at Air Force in previous visits, it's Wyoming outright!

Arizona is a 21-point home favorite against Oregon State and the Beavers will be less than eager to take on Wildcats running game that could go the distance on any play. The Wildcats were expected to finish last in the Pac-12 South, but quarterback Khalil Tate literally changed the fortunes of the entire Arizona program and they are already bowl eligible. Arizona comes in 4th in country in rushing yards per game at 327 and Oregon State has allowed 184 or more rushing yards in seven of nine tries. Watch for Tate to break the Beavers will and the 'Cats win by 30.

The Big 12 has been a rugged all season for the top tier teams. Based on remaining schedule, this is the last monster matchup with winner having clear advantage to win conference and the loser hoping for rematch. At quarterback, Baker Mayfield has decisive edge over Kenny Hill in a big game, as time and again he has not let Oklahoma falter when they could have. In terms of who has better team, TCU gets the edge dramatically on defense, ranked 6th nationally and the Sooners at 86th. In breaking this conflict down, if game turns into about the stars, Oklahoma wins, but if it turns into a team game, the Horned Frogs will prevail. I will back TCU who is 14-5-1 ATS as road underdogs and make sure to find a +7 like I did. 

After a month of barely completing 50 percent of pass attempts and having 611 passing yards, Michigan State quarterback Brian Lewerke has gotten so hot he could light a charcoal grill with throwing hand with 845 passing yards the last two weeks. With only Maryland and Rutgers ahead, a Spartans victory at Columbus sets them up to play for Big Ten title. As far as Ohio State, they have surrendered 93 points in last two outings and posted a -6 turnover ratio and even if you include Penn State miracle comeback (which they could have easily lost), the Buckeyes are only 7-3 SU in last 10 contests. With Sparty catching +17.5 point, really like the fact Michigan State is 12-3 ATS after gaining 450+ yards in consecutive games and makes this a touchdown game. 

This ACC contest is a yawner unless you have cash on line and we do tonight. North Carolina's season is over at 1-8, they have used four different QB's in the last few games and are averaging 16.5 PPG in conference play. Also, the Tar Heels are averaging THREE turnovers a game in past five outings. Pittsburgh is not great, but at 4-5they survived murderous early schedule and another step down in class should get the running game going and help them reach a 3-0 SU and ATS stretch. Look for the Pitt ground game to take over in the second half and check out this Awesome system: Play On home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) in conference games, off an upset win by 10 points or more as a home underdog. (28-7 ATS 80%, L20Y)

Posted this pick on Monday and now see it is up to =7 on Akron which even better for you. 

The Akron offense isn’t anything special, but it’s terrific at keeping the chains moving. Miami doesn’t have a pass rush and it’s not nearly disruptive enough in key moments. While the RedHawks are able to control the clock, they’re not going to control the game. In addition, the Zips are  6-0 ATS after gaining 100 or less rushing yards in two straight games. 

Is this the week for the 49ers to scratch in the win column? Given Arizona like themselves seldom plays a complete game, if San Francisco could jump on the Cardinals and get a confidence-boosting lead, they might seize the moment. With a decimated O-Line and rookie quarterback, the window of opportunity is small. Arizona is in a similar situation to the Niners, with a mediocre offensive line and at best below average quarterback with Carson Palmer out. With the Cards 7-16 ATS since last season and San Fran 9-2 ATS in division, they win for the first time in 2017. 

It is really too bad what has happened to Washington. The Redskins began the year with a much improved defense and still had one of the top offensive lines in the NFL. After beating Oakland, game by game the injuries really began mounting and what the Redskins had going, was pulling apart at the seams. Moving ahead to Week 9, Washington has all kinds of issues stopping the run, finding a consistent pass rush and protecting Kirk Cousins. Having just lost home games to Philadelphia and Dallas, a trip to Seattle against Seahawks defense that permitted 38 points at home is hardly a good situation. With Seattle 11-3 ATS at home after scoring 30 or more points and having matching spread record as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points, the Seahawks soar to 14-point victory. 

With how New Orleans is playing, neither the Falcons or Panthers can afford to fall any further behind the Saints in this meaningful NFC South showdown. Atlanta ended their three-game losing streak and is not gaining bettors support at only 2-5 ATS, with four spread losers in a row. The Falcons realize they will have to prepare for physical battle, since this is Carolina's style. The Panthers defensively are playing more aggressively and on the season are blitzing 17 percent more often with new coordinator. The Carolina offense remains spotty but I like this situation with Atlanta now favored. Play Against same conference teams when the line is +3 to -3 like the Falcons, after going under the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games. (37-12 ATS)

In the Pac-12, this confrontation has two similar teams that are rather average. Colorado tends to rely more on its offense to win games while Arizona State is at its best when the defensive shines and offense plays at their pace. Because the Buffaloes do not rush the passer well, this helps the Sun Devils. While revenge is not the end all to be all, ASU was blasted at Boulder 40-10 last year and coming off stinging defeat to USC, expect ASU to be ready to play and move to 9-1 and 7-2 ATS against the Buffs and remain perfect at Tempe, where they are 4-0 SU and ATS. 

Michigan is just 3-5 ATS and has not impressed many all season long with mediocre quarterback play. That is less of an issue against Minnesota, who ranks 116th in passing offense. We know how good the Wolverines defense has been all season, ranked fourth in total defense and more than capable of grounding the Golden Gophers. Minnesota's run defense is pretty good (36th nationally), but if you have seen them play, stronger teams can overpower them or those with speed on the edges can out run them on the corners. Michigan's running game can do both and wins this by 20 or more. 

With South Florida losing, Central Florida is the lone team outside the Power 5 with shot at Super Six bowl. Coach Scott Frost is already the hottest coaching candidate for bigger job and he will have his hands full with rugged assignment at SMU. The Knights are the top scoring team in FBS at 51 PPG, nonetheless, the Mustangs come in at No.9 at 41.5 PPG and have big play offense. UFC does have large edge defensively, however, underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points like SMU, who have won four out of their last five games, with a win percentage of 60% to 80%,  playing opponent with a winning record, are a sterling 30-5 ATS.

In college football, everything can change because of one game, ask TCU after losing at Iowa State. Not only does that upset loss at Ames have football bettors viewing them differently, they face a treacherous Texas crew this week and are at Oklahoma the week after. The Horned Frogs will have to be much sharper for Longhorns, who have more ability than Iowa State, if not lacking in overall execution. Can QB Kenny Hill bounce back after reverting to past tendencies? TCU is on 1-9 ATS downer as home favorite. Since Maryland misstep, Texas is 7-0 ATS and in every game. The Horns defense continues to play well and if they can eliminate coverage busts, they might well win this Big 12 battle.  

In the first college football Playoff Poll, Georgia was ranked No.1 and there is no reason to think South Carolina will not get blown out by the Bulldogs and the sportsbooks odds reflect this. But it's November and in college football this where the unforeseen occurs, like episodes of American Horror stories. The Gamecocks are not outstanding on offense or defense, yet they have made plays to be 6-2 and are 4-0 ATS away. The Bulldogs by any measurable are one of the best two teams in the country and just flushed Florida and is at Auburn next, making one to wonder if they have A-game this week. Georgia has no real weaknesses, but if South Carolina can contain their running game, forcing QB Jake Fromm to be pocket passer, the visitor can cover. Also keep in mind the Dawgs are only 12-25 ATS at home after three or more consecutive straight up wins.

Marshall turnovers and inability to make plays against FIU dug them a 35-7 hole at home from which they could not recover. The Thundering Herd have to regroup quickly against the lone undefeated team in C-USA, Florida Atlantic. Marshall's run defense had been strong all year, but they allowed a season-high 224 yards to FIU and next have to face the best rushing team in the conference in the Owls, who is also No.8 in country. However, I see the Thundering Herd in a bounce back spot after a brutal loss and this is a three-point game either way. 

Maybe Dallas just needed time off. The Cowboys played with great energy in smashing San Francisco. The offense was finally balanced and they will face a weakened Washington defense, with the Redskins on a short week. Over time, the Cowboys have been a weak wager after a 21 or more point blowout, however, recently, they are 9-2 ATS after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game. With Washington essentially three games back in the NFC East after being swept by Philadelphia, they need to turn their attention to the wild card. The Redskins are in a tough spot like many teams, saddled with injuries and no real solutions to overcome them. Dallas by 6. 

Outside of six quarters of football, the Cincinnati offense has not done much. NFL analysts have regularly vilipend the Bengals offensive line, who is not passing blocking to give Andy Dalton time to throw nor created many running lane for backs. Cincy did score 31 points against Cleveland and being able to do battle with Indianapolis should raise the Bengals scoring average with the Colts conceding a league-worst 31.7 points a contest. With the listed total at 42, all we need from Indy is their season average 17 PPG. For good measure, the Colts are 9-1 OVER as a road underdog the last two seasons, with average total score 54.6. 

With both these NFC South squads on losing streaks, this contest could very well set the tone for the rest of the season, good or bad. Carolina is slowing but surely returning to lethargic bunch from a year ago, which was unable to overcome barely any tough times. After 4-1 start, the Panthers look discombobulated and have 10 turnovers in past five games. Tampa Bay keeps digging holes they cannot crawl out of later in games and unless they start fast at home against Carolina, their playoffs hopes are close to dashed. The Bucs need urgency from the start, not when down 14-0. Tampa Bay also has issues with the 'Cats at home with 6-10 SU and 5-11 ATS records. 

As bad as it's been in Cleveland it seems to be getting worse. Coach Hue Jackson wants to win so desperately he keeps changing quarterbacks like he's Steve Spurrier. NFL players know what is going on and it would seem the ship is sinking in Cleveland again and not having much talent is a completely different discussion. For Minnesota, coach Mike Zimmer will tell his team about how great it would be to have a 6-2 record at the bye week. The Vikings have figured out to lean on defense and running game and let Case Keenum throw enough to make plays and let the opposing team makes mistakes. It is a rather simple formula and one that would seem a perfect match to defeat the Browns by 13 or more points.

I completely understand why some believe Arizona can win this game. The Wildcats are one the surprise teams in the Pac-12 and they have moved up to the No.3 rushing team in country at better than 342 yards a contest. No question this will be terrific atmosphere in Tucson, but here is why I do not mind giving the two points on Washington State. The Cougars defense is not getting enough credit, as they are holding opponents an astonishing 88 yards below their season average and to just 18.4 PPG. Arizona will rack up some yards, but finding the end zone will be another matter. Two angles I cannot ignore, Wazzu is 9-0 ATS versus teams averaging 230 or more rushing yards a game and the Wildcats are 0-8 ATS after gaining 275 or more rushing yards in two straight contests.  

Though not an meaningful game nationally, Mississippi State and Texas A&M realize it's importance. Each club is 5-2 and looking ahead, both are positioned to win three of their last four games. That would mean a 9-3 record and likely a New Year's Day bowl assignment and chance for a 10-win campaign. Mississippi State is a smallish road favorite and it's only two losses were on the road to Georgia and Auburn. Texas A&M was mildly competitive with Alabama and probably in quiet moments  still cannot figure how they lost to UCLA. The home team have won the last four meetings (3-1 ATS) and this Aggies group has shown mental toughness where they usually collapse and find a W. 

Wanted this number to come off -7 and it has and  the Owls fit two in-season systems this week that are 73% and 77% in FAU's favor. 

I am of the opinion Houston will be shaken by home loss to Memphis, after building 24-7 lead in the third quarter and giving up five touchdowns in less than 20 minutes to the Tigers in 43-38 loss. In watching the game, Houston players were completely gassed by the fourth quarter and had nothing left. Granted, it was on short week and they have extra rest for this Saturday showdown. Nonetheless, South Florida style is even more demoralizing, because they can run the ball down your throat, on the edges and just when you think you have something figured out, they pass down the field. The Bulls defense is dramatically better than Memphis and they will attack the Cougars offense which has made 14 turnovers in their last five games. With that the case let's call for the Bulls to trample Houston by 20.

It has not been an easy campaign for Pittsburgh, with a front-loaded arduous schedule and having quarterback and secondary problems to deal with. Last week the Panthers put it all together and upset Duke on the road with season-best running yardage and stellar play from defensive line. After going in 4-0 SU and ATS binge, Virginia was a tire fire last Saturday and was blown out by Boston College at home 41-10. Though the Cavaliers are probably not as good or bad as they have been playing, coach Bronco Mendenhall's teams are 10-4-1 ATS off a SU setback as a favorite.  Virginia in a small upset. 

The so-called “hook” in the Oklahoma State-West Virginia contest is probably driving most recreational bettors away, as they can’t fathom taking the Cowboys as better than a TD favorite at what is supposed to be one of the toughest environments in the Big 12. However, when I dug into the stats deeper this week, I was quite alarmed to see that OSU is actually the TOP TEAM IN THE COUTNRY in a stat that I judge to be a good indicator of team strength, Effective Yards Per Play Differential. In other words, HC Mike Gundy’s team is beating opponents on every scrimmage play better than any other team. Only the loss to a pretty good TCU team has most experts forgetting about them. West Virginia meanwhile is 54th in the country in that stat, just a bit better than your average college team.  The Mountaineers problem for Saturday is that they’ve allowed 30+ points in four straight games, a fact that OSU figures to exploit, as evidenced by this system: Play Against Any good team outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games. The system is 34-8 over the last 5 seasons for  81%. Don’t fear this game just because it’s in Morgantown. The Cowboys are the better team.

In MAC attack matchup that starts feeding our weekday football feeding frenzy, the total in this game has surged from 42 to 48. Both these teams have been excellent defensively, with Eastern Mich. permitting 19.9 PPG and Northern Illinois even better at 16.7 PPG. Both offenses have scored fewer points than what opponents they have faced have allowed. Each team has shown UNDER tendencies in MAC play, thus, I will grab the UNDER with EMU 15-5 UNDER of late and NIU 12-3 UNDER after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better.

The Giants flabbergasting win at Denver perfectly sums up what a wild ride this NFL season has been. New York had no dependable wide receivers, an at best unstable running game and aging Eli Manning and THEN coach Ben McAdoo gives up calling plays. The G-Men out of nowhere have 300 yards rushing in last two contests. Go figure. Seattle will not be bothered by travel off a bye and should lock down what few weapons New York have. The Giants defense simply is not the same and Seattle wins by 12.

Baltimore's loss to Chicago pointed to the absurd. The Ravens had two special teams touchdowns and still was beaten at home by the Bears. Baltimore offense managed only 291 yards in four-plus quarters and committed three turnovers. Joe Flacco is not helping matters, but neither are all the dropped passes. The Ravens are 1-8 ATS after a loss by six or less points the last three years. Case Keenum has been a savior for Minnesota with Sam Bradford injured again. The Vikings are positioned to win the NFC North with Aaron Rodgers expected to miss the rest of the season. We know what the Minnesota defense is capable of and if they can sustain running game watch out. With the Vikes 16-5 ATS at home the past three seasons, Minny by 13. 

Among the rules of handicapping is sticking to your principles and the Jets having 16-5 ATS record who fit something I normally believe in. Another rule of modern handicapping is don't stick to one mode of looking at games. Some handicappers only look for underdogs to cover and some years that works great and other times you will lose your shirt and much more. I am looking at Miami squad coming off of huge win at Atlanta on the road which takes them over .500 and gives them two consecutive victories. After tumultuous start of the season and losing Ryan Tannehill, the Dolphins are settling into normal routine and was a playoff club a year ago and they have better defense. The Jets are giving great effort, but Miami wins by 10.

While it is only the third Saturday in October, everyone agrees one of these teams will be eliminated from playoff contention no matter how they conclude season, barring unforeseen circumstances. USC is 6-1, but by any measure they have been mildly disappointing as 1-6 ATS mark shows. QB Sam Darnold has saved the Trojans, who continue to make mistakes at alarming rate, with 16 turnovers and never having less than two in any contest.  With Notre Dame forcing more than two turnovers a contest and having the No. 5 rush offense, which has quick scoring capabilities like a passing game, this will be test for USC. Coach Brian Kelly is in need of a marquee win and the Fighting Irish deliver with a 10-point win. 

The college football odds have LSU as a touchdown favorite at The Grove in Mississippi. Since losing to Troy, the Tigers have shown grit and toughness in defeating Florida and Auburn. But both games were decided by 1 and 4 points and when you look into the history of this series, LSU is just 6-14 ATS of late. Ole Miss is 3-3 and each loss was on road and two were to Alabama and Auburn. Shea Patterson is a talented quarterback and the Rebels still have big receivers who can catch the ball on slant routes or on jump balls down the field. Just not convinced the Bengal Tigers are that strong and believe this is a field goal game either way. 

After starting 3-0 under new coach P.J. Fleck, Minnesota has been exposed and has lost first three Big Ten tilts. The largest issue has been defense, where their defensive linemen cannot get off blocks and they lack speed in the back seven and allow too many big plays. Fortunately for the Golden Gophers, Illinois presents no such challenge and speed-wise on their entire roster. In the battle for the worse team in the conference, the Illini showed no fight and lost at home to Rutgers 35-24 last Saturday. Good step down in class for Minnesota and they take on Illinois club that is 4-13 ATS after one or more straight up losses the last three seasons. 

Indiana is playing hard in every game, but has not learned how to take contests that could go either way in second half and turn them into Hoosiers wins. The Hoosiers gave their all in OT loss to Michigan team that was beatable and will face a Michigan State squad that has regained its swagger and is 5-1 (4-2 ATS). Indiana has to protect the ball better, because -9 turnover margin will doom them again, since they are 1-10 and 3-8 ATS at East Lansing since 1992. The Spartans hung on for victory at Minnesota and are growing in confidence weekly  and are No.5 in total defense, which will not help the Hoosiers. While not expecting a blowout, look for Sparty to take recent home record in the second half of the season to 7-0 ATS against Indiana. 

After a poor season, Marshall is back and road teams like them after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, against opponent after going under the total by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, are 30-7 ATS.

For this prime time ACC encounter, forget the shootouts of the last two years, Houston is not close to the same offensively and is averaging just 25.5 PPG against opponents allowing 31.6. Memphis can score and give up a lot of points, however, the Cougars bend but don't break defense has only been burned by Tulsa last week (45 points). Let's think about lower score as October home teams, when the total is between 56.5 and 63, after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, are 46-17 UNDER the last decade. 

It has been a brutal week Pittsburgh with a great deal of talk about Ben Roethlisberger maybe being washed up, prima donna running backs and receivers saying they need the ball more and the run defense either very good or very bad. This does not seem like ideal week to face 5-0 Kansas City. However, this could be a 'circle the wagons' game for the Steelers, who are 6-0 ATS in road games  versus rushing defenses allowing 4.5 or more rushing yards a carry. Kansas City has the better offensive numbers to this point, but Pittsburgh is +90 in defensive yards. The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS and have not committed a turnover is four games, those streaks just don't keep happening. Steelers by 1.

The Detroit offense is best described as sporadic, ranked 29th in total yards and always seemingly scrambling in the fourth quarter when trailing. Matthew Stafford has been a bit less accurate to this juncture and had he's faced more pressure in the pocket to go along with below average running game and enters this game banged up. The New Orleans defense have done one the quickest turnarounds, surrendering 65 points in initial two games, to 13 points in previous two outings. Reasons vary, but Saints coaches are saying "focus and having right players on the field" has flipped the switch. This is third straight meeting in New Orleans and fourth overall and the Lions are 3-0 ATS. However, teams coming back from London and having a week off are 8-0-1 ATS.

Matthew Stafford and Drew Brees a shootout right? I am thinking the opposite and here is why. Both defenses are playing better and while Detroit had coverage issues with Can Newton, that has not been the norm this season. I wish I could explain New Orleans defense. Had contact tell Saints defense was vastly improved in August and after two games I called and mocked his information. He called me after Miami shutout and asked what I thought. They have ironed out what was wrong and I like the Lions pass run and improved run defense. With Detroit 12-3 UNDER on the road in conference clashes the past three seasons and 9-1 UNDER away off a home game, I will back the UNDER big time. 

This is Georgia State's fourth straight road game and while they won and covered the last two, UL-Monroe has won and covered three straight. Different in game, the Warhawks average better the 37 PPG, Georgia State is bit over 16 PPG. Lay it! 

Not exactly sure what happened to Michigan against Michigan State besides the weather, but watching you never got the feeling they were totally engaged. I look for the Wolverines to be much more focused off a loss and have a different level of urgency to their game. No question coach Jim Harbaugh and the offensive coaches will challenge the offensive line to block better and more cohesively and expect the running backs to hit the hole with more purpose. Quarterback John O'Korn is "the guy" for the Wolverines for the time being and he will get a healthy dose of protecting the ball better. Michigan's defense is strong enough to stymie a good Indiana offense. Though Michigan's role as favorite seems a little low, not going to argue with it and have MEECHIGAN by 13.

You could have asked a thousand people making college football picks back in August what Florida State's record would going into game with Duke and not one would have said 1-3. Nobody expected the Seminoles to lose their starting quarterback and it was presumed the offensive line would play better, neither of those ended up being true. Florida State started to find a running game last week against Miami and look for that to continue against what has been actually a good Blue Devils defense that does have problems getting off the field from time to time. The Noles just have more talent, a very good defense and are 7-0 and 6-1 ATS in Durham. 

Let's start with the key fundamental aspect between these SEC squads. South Carolina has six total turnovers halfway through their season, Tennessee has more that in their past three outings (8). The Gamecocks are skilled in taking the ball away with 13 generated turnovers, with multiple miscues forced in four of the six contests. Though South Carolina's offense can be choppy to watch, it is better than Tennessee, who has trouble sustaining drives and is only the field offensively for just a smidge over 26 minutes a game. The Vols will come out fired up off a bye and 41-0 shellacking to Georgia, but once the game settles in, the Gamecocks will not self-destruct and Tennessee will find a way to beat itself. 

Though this AAC affair will not attract a lot of people's attention, a good chunk of those betting football have been following it. Temple has slid from -12.5 to -9.5. I see value in the Owls, as road underdogs like Connecticut  that are outscored by opponents by 10 or more points a game, after two straight tilts where 70 total points or more were scored, are 5-24 ATS.

CBS get an unexpected surprise by having two division leaders from the NFC for their Thursday night telecast. Coach Doug Pederson has his detractors and rightly so, yet he's also collected a nice contingent of talent and QB Cason Wentz has accelerated Philadelphia's improvement. Now approaching 100 percent, Cam Newton is playing back to Super Bowl level of two years ago, while taking fewer hits. Ed Dickson stepping up at TE is a massive, plus and the Carolina defense is playing to ability level. Pending the results of Green Bay and Atlanta games Sunday, the winner certainly can make a claim as the best team in the NFC. The Panthers are 18-6 ATS at home versus teams averaging 375 or more yards per game and win by 7!

The search for a quality starting quarterback in Houston is over. Deshaun Watson was special at Clemson and after two starts he might take the Lone Star state by storm. You could see the trust in the faces of Texans' players as Watson made play after play and had command of still somewhat limited knowledge of Houston offense. Kansas City coach Andy Reid will have new wrinkles for new pup, but Watson has been a quick study. The Chiefs are the lone unbeaten team and they are the most efficient team both on offense and defense in football. However, Houston has the run defense to slow Kansas City and good as the K.C. has been particularly on offense, they are 0-7 ATS after gaining six or more yards a play in four consecutive games. Texans by 4.