Jacksonville is in disarray. The team and coaches have lost faith in B. Bortles (again) and the defense is not playing up to last year's standards. The Jaguars have been outscored 90-28 in their last three games and they come in 0-6 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse. Here is what you need to know about Philly; favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a game where they committed one or less turnovers, against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are, 26-11 ATS winning by a whopping 11.6 PPG. Eagles by 10. 

Texas A&M is not the program they want to be yet, but Jimbo Fisher is adding one key element. After losing to Clemson by two, the Aggies have won three straight by 13 total points. Granted, that is hardly domination, but it proves they know how to win the game is on the line. Mississippi State is rudderless, having lost three of four and their new head coach is unhappy QB Nick Fitzgerald can only run and not pass. Know this, when the line is +3 to -3 and teams like the Bulldogs have gone under the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season, they are 5-24 ATS since 2009. 

Let's start with this, Stanford is 5-0 SU this season when holding teams to 13 points or fewer, and 0-3 when teams score more. Any takers on Washington State scoring that few of points? That's what I thought. The Cardinal only beat Arizona State because of +3 turnover margin. Washington State is for real and they can drive Stanford crazy with defensive reads and doing the opposite of expected. In addition, teams like WASHINGTON ST. who score 34 or more PPG, against a team allowing 16-21 PPG after 7+ games, after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half, are 30-9 ATS. The Cougs win outright. 

N.C. State can pass but they cannot run, averaging 3.8 YPR. Syracuse has a balanced and more prolific offense, which averages 42.6 PPG. The Wolf Pack opened as an underdog before being shifted to a favorite and that will not suit them because they are  8-20 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less. With N.C. State  2-9 ATS off a road loss against a conference rival, Syracuse wins outright!

Maybe it will turn out differently, but Penn State is laboring, particularly on defense. The Nittany Lions could not hold a two-score lead at home against Ohio State. The following week they again failed at home versus an overrated Michigan State squad and last week they permitted 28 points and 554 yards to a so-so Indiana bunch in victory. Iowa is Iowa, they show up every week and stop the run and have enough offense to keep things close. It might be best to wait and see if you can grab the Hawkeyes at +7, but either way, Iowa is 19-5 ATS vs. teams scoring 37 or more points a game.

Iowa State was going nowhere, then enter QB Brock Purdy. With the ability to pass, the running game opened up and the defense enjoyed working with a lead and the Cyclones are as dangerous as any team in the Big 12. With Texas Tech 5-17 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points and Iowa State 15-4 ATS since last season and 7-0 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56, they win by 10. 

Both these ACC squads are 5-2 and the winner stays in the chase to win a division title with future conference games ahead. This matchup is your classic - power vs. speed - confrontation, with a couple twists. Miami has the overall speed edge, but not as much on defense as usual, as Boston College has gone away from their plodding offensive style to more explosive methods and generating big plays. The Eagles are also not the better defensive team like in past years. Being able to get the hook without buying is a plus. Here is the key situational play: Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like the Hurricanes, who are off a close road loss by three points or less, with a winning record on the season, playing another winning team, are 13-39 ATS since 1992.

Lane Kiffin was more than happy to take all the credit for winning C-USA championship in his first year at Florida Atlantic. The assumption was he could take all the leftovers in fertile Florida market of football players and have great success. This year, with the offensive talent down a bit, FAU has not been nearly as strong as 3-4 record shows and even with that, they are well below market expectations at 1-6 ATS. Give Skip Holtz some points in almost any game and he turns into money for backers. A case could be made Holtz's Louisiana Tech squad is the better team, besides the fact the Bulldogs are 5-2 (4-3 ATS). With Holtz 32-15 ATS a road underdog in his career, we will take the points and make a side that Louisiana Tech winning outright.

This is pretty simple, even with this year's away setbacks, Dallas is 20-14-1 ATS as a road dog. Dress Washington up as a home favorite and in the last 26 years, they are 43-70 ATS. With Dallas having the running game churning, they are 8-1 ATS after gaining 175 or more rushing yards. For good measure, division road underdog off a nonconference win of 10 or more points are 14-3 ATS. Dallas by 6. 

Jacksonville is in a funk. The Jaguars proved last year how to make B. Bortles a better QB, supply him with a strong running game. The Jags have gone from 1st to 18th running the ball which places Bortles in more obvious passing situations and again he his turning the ball over. Houston's offense is not perfect, but they are gathering momentum. The Texans have gone from 0-3 to 3-0 and while those victories were hardly impressive, winning builds confidence. Jacksonville is 10-23 ATS at home after gaining 75 or less rushing yards loses outright. 

Both Minnesota and the Jets are 2-0 SU and ATS in recent games. In the NFL, one thing that is very hard to do is win and cover a three-game homestand, like New York is on. Mike Zimmer will design defenses that will be hard for Sam Darnold to read and over 60 minutes he will make a couple bad reads that will cost him. Kirk Cousins remains in excellent form and he has the weapons to exploit a depleted Flyboys secondary. With the Vikes a sharp 13-4 ATS against the AFC, it's Minny by 8.

There is going to be a lot of bettors backing Chicago. It's going to be the wrong side and here's why. New England has scored 38, 38 and 43 points in their last three games, which means Tom Brady has the offense clicking. The Bears defense is not quite the same without Khalil Mack at 100% and the Patriots will look to work Chicago's linebackers in the passing game, before going deeper down the field. New England is 9-1 ATS after gaining 375 or more total yards in three consecutive games, while Da Bears are 2-10 ATS at home after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points. Pats by 7. 

I was very high on North Texas coming into the season but was mystified how they lost at home to Louisiana Tech. Previous to that game I was surprised that UAB fell to Coastal Carolina 47-24 as 8.5-point road favorites. However, since then the Blazers have rattled off four straight wins and covers, including laying out Louisiana Tech 28-7 on the road. It goes without saying what coach Bill Clark has done in never giving up on UAB football after the university shut it down, but his teams are 14-5 against conference competition and they win by 6. 

Kentucky averages 223 YPG on the ground, they are at home and rested. Against four Power 5 programs, Vanderbilt has allowed 257 YPG rushing and is 0-4 and 1-3 ATS. The Wildcats are not like their hoops buddies, but this is a good football team and with Vandy a less than dandy last in third-down conversions in the SEC, Kentucky faces a Commodores team that is on a 1-9 ATS SEC downer and is 0-6 ATS after being outrushed by 150 or more yards in last game. The only reason this is not a 10-star game is the 'Cats are 1-8 ATS as faves.  

Oregon expended a lot of energy last week in win over Washington. Washington State has figured out how to play the Ducks, beating them three straight times and they are on an 8-0 ATS run. The Cougars have enjoyed a week off and they should give them ample time to prepare. What I like about this Cougars defense is they rush the passer which covers up weaker elements of their defense. Washington State is 8-0 ATS after gaining 325 or more passing yards in two straight games and wins by 7. 

Just looking at stats is one way to handicap games, but you can miss things compared to watching games. When Wyoming faced New Mexico State in Week Zero, you could see they had a good defense, but the Cowboys has offensive shortcomings. Six days later, Utah State almost upset Michigan State in East Lansing and the Aggies had a dynamic offense. Fast forward to today and what looked true has played out for Wyoming and Utah State. The Aggies are for real and are  6-0 ATS after gaining 475 or more total yards over their last three games. Conversely, Wyoming is  4-13 ATS after scoring 14 points or less.

Definitely, have lost value with Buffalo going from +3 to -1, but the line adjustment is accurate. Toledo is not up to its usual standard and its best win as a 3-3 team is over Nevada at home. The Bulls are 6-1 and upset Temple in Week 2 and the Owls have not lost since. When home teams like the Rockets are matched up with the line is +3 to -3, off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival, against an opponent off a home win by 17 points or more, they are 20-49 ATS.

Denver nearly beat Kansas City but failed and the following week they were crushed by the Jets. Now they come home to face the best team in the NFL. The Rams are the full package. Defensively, they have had a few shortcomings but I don't anticipate Denver's offense to be able to expose them. The Broncos are struggling against the run and the pass and they are 0-7 ATS vs teams averaging 5.65 or more yards per play losing by 14 PPG. Rams by 14. 

In spite of Pittsburgh and Baltimore appearing to have more overall talent, it is Cincinnati who is first place in the division and whose played more consistently over 60 minute segments in building a 4-1 SU and ATS. Pittsburgh is off their most complete team performance of the season in drubbing Atlanta 41-17. The Steelers offense was more cohesive, in sync and didn't have the minor breakdowns that have plagued them all season. Let's be honest, the Pittsburgh linebackers and secondary are nothing special, but there ticket to success is pressure and when force the opposing quarterback to make quick decisions, they reduce their exposure to big  plays. Even though it is incredibly tempting to go against Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati, the Steelers are 23-5 SU and 20-7-1 ATS in the Queen City. Steelers outright.

By all appearances the Falcons are in a world of hurt at 1-4 SU. The defense is weak and injured and their season is literally on the brink. Tampa Bay is changing quarterbacks after Ryan Fitzpatrick used up his 15 minutes of fame. As bad as Atlanta has looked, do you really think that Jameis Winston is going to stroll in and lead his team to victory? I think not! Consider this, when the line is +3 to -3 and a team gives up 14 or more points in the first half per game and in their last game they scored three points or less in the first half, they are 11-33 ATS. Dirty Birds by 7.

Minnesota is off a nice victory over Philadelphia and Arizona is off their first win of the year. While the Vikings at -10 look imposing, let's not lose sight of the fact that the Cardinals were outgained by 237 yards last week. Arizona  is playing their second straight road game and with the total at 43, they are 1-9 ATS when the total is between 42.5 and 49. With the Vikings 13-5 ATS playing against losing teams, it's Minny by 17.

This is the time of year all football betting experts start looking at undefeated teams and look where they might falter. This is a natural one for 5-0 Colorado since they are 0-9 since the turn of the century when facing USC. But before we write off the Buffs, let's consider their confidence and having a strong-armed quarterback in Steven Montez, who can keep them in any contest. It's not like this is a vintage Trojans club, which is actually being outscored on the season. Colorado might falter, but USC is 5-14 ATS since last season.

There are those that think this spread is too high because of the Wyoming defense and those that think that have a point. However, two elements are being ignored. Fresno State is highly efficient on offense and is No.4 in the nation in Yards Per Point. The Bulldogs are averaging 40 PPG and they just scored 21 at Nevada, thus, it's not hard to imagine at home they reach 35 to 40. The Cowboys only score 17.5 PPG and Nevada allows 15. Fresno State is 15-3 ATS the last two years and 8-1 ATS after playing their last game on the road. The Bulldogs by 21. 

In most football bettors eyes, each of these clubs has been a disappointment in various ways. Each is staring at a second defeat in the middle of October already and there were few bright spots to fire up the alumni. This does not mean either cannot play the Big Ten championship in December, but they need to start assembling winner performances. Wisconsin is 5-2-1 ATS in the Big House in recent visits and they are 11-1 ATS on the road since 2016. Make the total in the 42.5 and 49 point range away from home (48 at last look) and Bucky Badger is a perfect 12-0 ATS.

Illinois is 3-2, which for them is really good, considering their lousy football history. The Fighting Illini have won the games they were favored and lost the ones they were not and are 3-2 ATS altogether. One could make a case for Purdue being at least 4-1 if not 5-0 if they could have closed out their first three contests, all losses, by a total of eight points. The Boilermakers are deserving favorite, but the Illinois defense by Big Ten standards is improving and the offense is putting together a solid run game with explosive plays. The Illini defense is generating better than two turnovers a contest and Purdue will make miscues. Illinois falls, but by just 7.

In other Pac-12 action, Washington could all but punch their ticket to the conference title game with a victory. But don't overlook Oregon, who would be 5-0 except for blowing a lead and losing to Stanford. The Huskies offense is more workmanlike than treacherous and the Ducks led by QB Justin Herber, are primed at Eugene to strut their stuff. Having been thoroughly embarrassed in being blown out 118-24 the past two years by Washington, Oregon is ready and this is a two-point outcome either way. 

By all appearances, Louisville has thrown in the towel already. Bobby Petrino cannot recruit like he used to, he lost his safety blanket when the AD was fired and the players are going thru the motions. Boston College lost to an undervalued N.C State last week but covered. The Eagles are forcing almost three turnovers a game which is about how often the Cardinals are turning it over. Like Papa John's which has its headquarters in Louisville, the Cardinals are not relevant anymore and are  0-7 ATS in road games vs. teams outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG the last three seasons and they lose by 20. 

Duke's pass defense let them down on Sept. 29th and they were upset by Virginia Tech at home 31-14. That will not happen versus Georgia Tech's option, because the Yellow Jackets have 17 pass attempts in their last three tilts. However, the Jackets have scored 129 points in their past two games and posted over 900 yards rushing, which is they are favored at home. But Duke has a quality front seven on defense and while they might not be Clemson, they are in the Top 4 of the ACC. With the Blue Devils 12-4 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less and if drill down further, they are 6-0 ATS when catching 3 or less away from Durham, it's the Dukies outright.

Philadelphia and New York are both under .500. The Eagles are favored in this Thursday night game on FOX but this season is 0-4 ATS in that role. The Giants record as an underdog is better than their overall record (2-3 ATS vs. 1-4 SU), but they too are a phony. New York's stated goal was to be a more physical team, running the ball with rookie Saquon Barkley. Because their offensive line is horrible, the G-Men are 31st in rush attempts and 28th in rushing and have already given up on what was going to be their identity. Both these NFC East rivals commit more than more than two turnovers a game and force just one, thus, each is more inclined to beat itself than to earn a victory. As for a choice, there is now too much value on the better team at -1 and I'll take Philly because road favorites off two losses are 32-10 ATS against losing teams.

The Cowboys won at home against Detroit, but not surprisingly failed to cover the number. Dallas is 0-2 SU and ATS on the road and has tallied just 21 points. Yet, let's look Houston's defense. In spite of being as relatively healthy as they have been in years, the Texans are permitting 27 PPG and 382 YPG against offenses averaging 325. In other words, this should create opportunities for Dallas to move the ball and score. In addition, the Cowboys running game is starting to churn and they are 8-1 ATS after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in two straight games. Add in Dallas is 6-0 ATS versus opponents allowing 375 or yards a game and I'll gladly take the points. 

The Ravens were one of my OVER picks for season win totals and they look the part. Joe Flacco is having one his best years and is helped with two quality tight ends and wide receivers who can get open. Flacco was also motivated by Baltimore taking Lamar Jackson in the first round. On defense, the Ravens are 2nd in total defense and tied for third in scoring defense. Look for them to create at least two Baker Mayfield turnovers and turn those into points. We know the Browns are 4-12 ATS as a home underdog,  but you might know the Ravens are 8-1 ATS off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog.

Carolina can keep Big Blue guessing with their use of RB Christian McCaffrey and that should be a big boost. Two games ago, he was a go-to player in the passing attack and then he turned into a major rushing threat in the next game. In three previous games against the Giants, quarterback Cam Newton has accounted for 10 touchdowns (eight passing, two rushing).On defense, the Panthers will force Eli Manning into mistakes because of having no offensive line. The Panthers should see an opportunity to overpower the Giants along the line of scrimmage. Carolina comes in a sharp 10-2 ATS at home after allowing 6.5 or more yards a play in their previous game. The Cats by 13. 

I was amazed as anyone the Badgers have gone down as a favorite against Nebraska. The Cornhuskers are reeling and Wisconsin should be refreshed off a bye. Almost impossible to imagine to the Badgers don't grind the Children of the Corn down to bite-size morsels and send Nebraska to 2-11 ATS after one or more straight up losses. 

I'm a big fan of what Mark Stoops is doing at Kentucky. Unfortunately, on Saturday night in Aggie-Land the joy ends. We saw what kind of team Texas A&M can be against Clemson. The Aggies have been staunch against the run, which is the Wildcats offense for all intents and purposes. Watch for the Aggies to slow Kentucky, make big plays in the passing game and win by 13. 

Here is the game, Georgia Southern is 6th nationally in rushing yards and USA is 120th in trying to stop the run. It won't happen immediately, but over four quarters South Alabama will fall to 1-13 ATS after a game where they committed one or less turnovers and lose by 17.

Syracuse is stronger on both lines and will be able to run the ball in particular on Pittsburgh. There is a significant edge at QB for the Orange, which is more than enough of an edge for point differential. Besides this, road favorites at this price the current total are 11-1 ATS. The Cuse by 7 or more.

Nothing to quibble about in understanding who is the stronger team, it's Oklahoma. But this is not breaking news as the Sooners have been an -8.5 to -16.5 points favorite each of the past five years in the Red River Rivalry and failed to cover the spread each time, losing twice. This Texas team is still not the most stable mentally, sometimes lacking confidence, other times playing too overconfident. This Longhorns squad has risen to the moment in their two biggest challenges, USC and TCU and won both games. Not forecasting a "W" for the Horns, but they are 7-0 ATS vs. teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards per attempt.

While the "Holy War" receives and deserves most of the attention as the rivalry in the state of Utah, don't sell this one short, especially for Utah State. The Aggies are a lot like other schools in other states, down the list of where recruits want to play. Annually, they have players that thought they were more than good enough to play at BYU or Utah but were passed over. Utah State has more than enough offense to give the Cougars a hard time at 51.5 PPG, with BYU checking in at 21.4 PPG. With Utah State 10-5 ATS against their state rivals, expect them to cash.

My first impulse was to consider Indianapolis with the points. Underdogs of seven or more are a respectable 6-6 ATS this season. But when breaking down the matchup, that is where Indianapolis becomes less attractive. In both New England losses, which were on the road, the one element that was in play is teams ran at the Patriots with a great deal of success. Miami tried that but New England made adjustments in gap control and because they built an early lead, they were able to dictate the tempo. The Colts are 29th in rushing and to think they will take advantage of the Pats seems foolish. New England's perimeter players are not near what they were even last year. Granted, they have more big-play potential, but they often do not create much separation on regular passing plays. That was partly why they emphasized the ground game more last Sunday and look for them to do the same this week. It will be New England by 17.

Pittsburgh got into the win column on Monday night largely due to three interceptions. Once again the pass defense was ineffective in allowing Ryan Fitzpatrick to throw for 411 yards. The Steelers rank 28th in pass defense and the issue is multifaceted. They are having problems staying with speedier wide receivers. Opponents are exposing them with underneath routes because their linebackers struggle to play in space, which leaves room for tight ends and backs to work in the 5 to 10-yard range. On offense, Pittsburgh was sharp at Tampa Bay and timing of the offense was more normal. Save a flat first half against Cincinnati, the Baltimore offense is much improved on the passing end. Joe Flacco is playing faster and making quicker decisions and he has better pass-catchers. The offensive line and run game are not synced up yet, but teams are trying to the Ravens to throw. When the point spread in this series is three or less like this game is, the underdog is solid 9-5-3 ATS and I'll back the Birds. 

It looked peculiar to see this game open as a Pick. Sure, Oakland is 0-3 and has been outscored 64-17 in the second half in the new Gruden era. But come on, Cleveland is 2-32-1 SU the last two-plus seasons and has not won back to back games since the middle of the 2014 season. For whatever reason, everybody's all excited about the Browns, yet the fact remains road underdogs like Cleveland, after three or more consecutive wins against the spread, in the first half of the season are 7-27 ATS. Raiders by 7.

The Dolphins will attempt to keep their perfect record intact when they head on the road to take on the Patriots in this AFC affair. Everyone wants to know what's wrong with New England. It starts with the personnel department and success. All those years of drafting late and not having as many players work out like in the past is catching up to them. This is particularly true on defense, where the talent level and effort is the lowest in years. Yes, Miami is 3-0 & ATS, but there is some smoke and mirrors. The Dolphins are being outgained by 53 yards a game which fits the profile of a losing team, not an unbeaten one. While I'm the first to admit New England at this many points looks challenging, betting against Tom Brady at home seldom works (64-9 SU regular season since 2009) and the Pats are 8-0 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games. New England by 16)

Toledo yet again might be the best team in the MAC. The Rockets can score and have a lot of firepower. But Fresno State is a different animal. Coach Jeff Tedford is an offensive coach and while his team does still score over 40 PPG, the defense is holding foes to 16 PPG which is below those teams normal average. Tedford is raisin country is 13-3 ATS, winning by 12.5 PPG and duplicates what he has accomplished with the Bulldogs. 

Washington State was sent out by sportsbooks as a 1.5-point favorite, but after baking awhile, they came out of the oven at +2. No question a case could be made for Utah, who is 16-7 ATS off a home loss and 6-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record. But if you have seen the Utes, they still lack a consistent passing offense, which is to their detriment. This Cougars offense can still wing it and they are No.2 nationally in passing. And Washington State seems to be an improved defensive squad. With Mike Leach teams 14-4 ATS after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games, it's the Cougs by 7.

Under Gus Malzahn, Auburn is not known for stability. They often play to the level of competition and are not thought of as tough-minded. Malzahn's best Auburn squad was his first, which was 75 percent Gene Chizik recruits from the prior years. In his time at Auburn, Malzahn is 10-16-1 ATS in non-SEC contests and 5-13-1 ATS when favored by 20 or more points. Southern Miss has a long history of facing big-time opponents (this goes back to the Brett Favre days when he beat Alabama and Auburn in the same year) and they have covered the number the last three times against the Tigers. The Golden Eagles are No.9 in passing in the country and an inferior team that can throw and score always has a shot to cover when catching large points. Auburn by 23. 

With Western Michigan having the overall stronger football program and beating Miami-O five straight times (covering the last four), the Broncos have been ridden from +3 to -2. Another good reason to support Western Mich. is the fact they have the superior offense, more than doubling the Redhawks output. (36.7 vs. 17.2 PPG) With the total at 53.5, Miami-O is 0-7 ATS at home when the total is between 49.5 and 56. The Broncos by 8.

There will be a lot of talk about Clemson and revenge. Given the Tigers place in college football does a game against Syracuse make the pulse rise? I say probably not, especially against a spread this high. In spite of how good the Clemson defense is, the Orange have a extremely balanced offense and they cannot take everything away. There is no chance of an upset, but road teams like the 'Cuse averaging 6.2 or more YPP, against a team with an excellent defense (4.2 or less YPP), after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 34-9 ATS. Clemson by 20. 

These two programs appear to be headed in opposite directions at the moment and it appears that the Chip Kelly era is going to get off to a slow start in Westwood. Kelly does not have the right players to run is his offense which is why they are averaging 17.3 PPG. The UCLA defense has been a mess for years and that continues with them allowing 37.7 PPG. Colorado has a nicely balanced offense led by QB Steven Montez that averages almost 500 YPG and scores 41 PPG. With the Bruins 2-10 ATS in September the last few years and 11-28 ATS after scoring seven points or less in the first half of two straight games, it's the Buffalos by 14. 

The student against the teacher on Sunday Night football. Bill Belichick goes against already beleaguered Matt Patricia. One week after it looked like New England defense was better than last year, Jacksonville carved them up like a turkey for 377 yards passing and it was the Super Bowl all over again for the Patriots. It is starting to appear the Patriots are still a very good football team, but the best team in the AFC, that is no longer guaranteed. Patricia cannot be blamed for wanting perfection after his time in New England and if Detroit is that soft mentally and physically, they need new players. However, Patricia is supposed to be a defensive genius and his run defense is permitting 5.6 yards a carry and 179 yards a game. Allow the Pats and Tom Brady to run the ball and they will pick any team apart. With Lions still having no running game and Matthew Stafford not as accurate thus far as the past few years, it's New England by 10.

Let's be honest, nothing much to fear about Seattle. But the same goes for Dallas also and the Seahawks are back home where they always play better. When the Cowboys do not score, they are not very good and they are 12-28 ATS in road games off two or more Under's. Seattle, on the other hand, is 10-2 ATS after two or more losses and is 11-2 ATS in September home games. The Hawks by 6. 

The LA Rams are like Hollywood movie premiere, there is talent everywhere. On offense, there is Jared Goff and Todd Gurley and revamped offensive line that even stronger. The receivers complement each other and all have a place in the Rams passing tree. On the defense, the line can dominate like no other in the NFL and the secondary is superb, But Los Angeles will support a winner and the Chargers can achieve more notoriety with the upset. Philip Rivers is a proven commodity and RB Melvin Gordon is turning into a Top 5 running back if he's not already there in NFL scouts eyes. Rivers over the years has never been shy about passing the pigskin to a variety of receivers and already after just two games, six different pass-catchers have chunk plays of 20+ yards. And Rivers is 11-3 ATS when catching  7 or more points, including playoff games. With the Rams 3-12 ATS after allowing less than 200 yards on offense, thy win, by just 3. 

What Baltimore team shows up? The one against Buffalo or the non-caring one against Cincinnati. Let's go the presumption it's the Game 1 crew and they will find 2-0 fraud in the Broncos. Denver moves the ball and is 4th in total offense, but is 24th in yards per point which is points scored per 100 yards gained. This has been achieved at a Mile High, not where they sell crab cakes. The Broncos are also 1-9 SU and ATS on the road of late and Vance Joseph is not among the best coaches in the NFL and he's 4-12-2 ATS. With Baltimore a solid 13-5 ATS in September home games, give the -5 because they are winning by double digits. 

College football has conference numbers that make no sense. You might have two fairly evenly matched teams but one always seems to struggle against the other. Take is Pac-12 encounter, where Washington is 1-10 SU versus Arizona State and is incredible 0-11 ATS. The fact is the Huskies have only been favored in the last two, thus, part this is not an impossible outcome. Still, name another matchup that finds one team on an 11-0 spread roll? Watch for the Sun Devils to fall, but just by 14 points. 

LSU is coming off an emotional win over Auburn and does not stand to gain much by beating Louisiana Tech. No question some Bulldogs players thought they were good enough to play at LSU and they will be motivated. Next, let's start with Skip Holtz being 30-15 ATS as an underdog coach in his FBS career and follow that up with road underdogs like LOUISIANA TECH, in a game involving two good running teams,  both outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in last contest, are 37-12 ATS. LSU wins by 17.

Defeating Southern Utah does not count for much, which is what both these Pac-12 clubs have done for their lone victory. Arizona looked ridiculously bad in losses to BYU and Houston. Whatever Kevin Sumlin thought he might be walking into in a positive sense, that has not worked out. Oregon State was coming off a 1-11 campaign and new coach and former player Jonathan Smith has been working overtime to change the culture. Though they lost 77-31 at Ohio State, the Beavers hung 721 yards on the Buckeyes. Last Saturday, after trailing 30-7 at Nevada, OSU missed a 33-yard game winning field goal on the last play of the game. With the Wildcats 0-8 ATS in road games after two contests where 60 or more total points were tallied, we'll side with the eager Beavers who could win.

Kansas State is not what they used to be in Bill Snyder's first tour of duty, but for whatever reason the Wildcats have enjoyed a good success against West Virginia with a 5-1 ATS mark, winning four times. Snyder's teams have always thrived as road underdogs with a 20-10 ATS record and West Virginia under Dana Holgersen is 4-15 ATS with two weeks between games. The Mountaineers win by 12. 

Clemson's defense is allowing 89 rushing YPG, leads the ACC in sacks, and is sixth in the country in tackles for loss. How do you disrupt the option, generate penetration and use the speed on the outside to stay in the lanes. The option that Georgia Tech runs doesn’t work against this. The Yellow Jackets have no passing game and Clemson knows exactly what to do. The Tigers have more than enough offense and is 11-2 ATS away after playing two nonconference games. Clemson by at least 21.

Hard to explain how Maryland played last week in being throttled by Temple. Minnesota is making real progress under coach P. J. Fleck but the offense is not there despite a 3-0 record. If you saw last year's game as I did, the Terps have a huge speed edge and are coming off a bad loss and they should be excited to get back and play to make amends. The Turtles are a solid 26-13 ATS in home games after a loss by 17 or more points and win by 6. 

SMU cannot run, throw or play very good defense. That's a problem. Navy, of course, can run and they are second in the nation in doing so at over 355 yards on the ground. This type of offense is demoralizing to face over four quarters and Navy have beat up on SMU at 11-2 and 10-3 ATS, which includes 6-0 and 5-1 ATS in Dallas. I have a Super System that says home underdogs after allowing 37 points or more in two straight games, against opponent after allowing seven points or less in the first half of two straight contests, are 6-28 ATS. Navy by 17. 

This is how it works, you struggle, you struggle some more and when it seems impossible, you break through and everything opens up. That's where Cleveland is. After two games the Browns have a +6 turnover margin, which for any other normal team would mean a 2-0 record at this point. But these are Hue Jackson's Browns we are talking about and if there is a way to not win a game, undoubtedly, they will find it. Look for the kicking game to improve against the Jets this week, because, well, like Cleveland, it cannot get any worse. The New York Jets came crashing back to earth in a home loss to Miami and that fitting for Sam Darnold's Hall of Fame jacket will be put on hold for the time being. Cleveland is a favorite for the first time in exactly one year (-1 at Indianapolis, lost 31-28). Look for the Browns defense to harass Darnold just like they have Pittsburgh and New Orleans and QB Tyrod Taylor to make plays and Cleveland wins comfortably by 13 points, ending their 19-game winless streak.

For the New York Giants and Dallas, it is already about urgency. The loser will be 0-2 to start the season and they will have to climb out of a hole. Each team struggled in the trenches on both sides of the ball, unable to run with any consistency and largely pushed around on the defensive end. So who do you take in this confrontation of true adversaries? The G-Men and here is why. The Dallas offensive line is no longer a strength, stripping them of their identity. No defense this season has to go out of their way to game plan for the Cowboys' receivers. Saquon Barkley is a star waiting to happen, though Ezekiel Elliott is his equal for now. But what about Odell Beckham Jr. under the Sunday night lights? Who stops him for the Cowboys? This will be about making big plays and Blue Blue makes more, going up against a Dallas crew that is 1-9 ATS in home games after scoring 14 points or less in last game. 

It's interesting to see the oddsmakers are not "shadowing" the Patriots thus far and putting up what are realistic numbers. Not that New England has not been good enough to take on what comes there way, because they are 29-10 ATS record the last three seasons. Here is what I cannot get past - Tom Brady vs. Blake Bortles with a spread like this. By no means am I saying this is the same Jacksonville of the past, but when I see the Pats challenged and having a 13-3 ATS road record of late, I like them in this spot by six or more. 

Oddsmakers made Miami a one-point favorite before the Jets played on Monday night. After Gang Green made Detroit look sickly, the Flyboys were flipped to field goal home favorites. That to me is too much on the Jets and if you watched Miami last week, they looked more like the playoff team from 2016 running the ball and executing the short passing offense. In addition, they can heat up the pass rush and I think they give S. Darnold some deceptive looks and a turnover or two leads to scores and Miami who wins outright! 

Ryan Fitzpatrick was sensational last week for Tampa Bay. So why is he playing for his eight different NFL team? Because if you know anything about him, he just as likely to throw three picks this week against Philadelphia who will pressure him more and has the secondary to make him miserable. Two elements to ponder, the Bucs are 3-12 ATS off a win over a division rival as an underdog of six or more and the Eagles are on a roll of s 7-0 ATS when the line is +3 to -3. Philly by 7 or more.

Boy, Ohio State has really missed Urban Meyer! The Buckeyes are one of the four most talented teams in the country and that will show on Saturday night. If this game was in TCU, this might be trickier, but there will be thousands of Buckeyes fans in Dallas and any home field edge will be negated. TCU will be very competitive into the third quarter when Ohio State talent starts to matter and cranks up the defense and the running game and win this matchup going away by 19. 

It's the conference opener for these two MAC squads that are both 2-0. This is their first matchup in four years in a crossover contest among the divisions. Each team arrives feeling really good about itself, winning on the road as underdogs. In terms of whom to choose, here is why Eastern Michigan is the right choice. The Eagles have been money the last few years at 20-7 against the spread. They can hang inside the number on the road as their 12-2 ATS record proves and give them a bone (points) away from home and they are 7-0 ATS, losing by less than a point per game (0.9).

Kansas State was flat out pummeled by Miss. State and has to regroup. UTSA's defense has permitted over 1,000 yards in two games and has to go on the road again. The Wildcats should find a nice offensive rhythm and the defense will want to hit somebody after being shoved around last week. Coach Bill Snyder teams are 12-0 ATS after being outrushed by 200 or more yards and 9-0 ATS after allowing 300 or more rushing yards in last game. K-State by 26. 

After a strong opener, UAB could not stop the run against Coastal Carolina on the road and got hammered 47-24 as 8.5 point favorites. Sportsbooks have made the Blazers a home underdog which could work to their advantage. UAB has a nice history on the receiving end of points with 27-11 ATS mark. Third-year coach Willie Fritz has upgraded the Green Wave program to the point they could be bowl eligible. However, old habits die hard and this is still a Tulane team that is 14-57 SU on the road over a long period. Let's call for UAB outright.

Baltimore played a near flawless game against Buffalo in blowing them out 47-3 as 7.5 point favorites. This was a continuation of what we saw in the preseason from the Ravens and Joe Flacco taking his job more seriously since Baltimore drafted Lamar Jackson in the first round. Besides the attitude adjustment by Flacco, he's become more dutiful in his footwork and is not making as many off-balance throws, they were 50-50 balls for interceptions. Cincinnati had to come from behind to oust Indianapolis but showed more courage than recent Bengals teams. Cincinnati figures to be fearless at home against Baltimore since they have a 14-8 and 13-9 ATS record at home against them. The Baltimore defense received a lot of praise for their effort last week, but the Bengals Andy Dalton on a bad team is better than what Buffalo has a quarterback right now. These Thursdays tilts are always challenging, but I'll back the Birds since they are 10-1 ATS after scoring 40 or more points. 

Philip Rivers will attack a Chiefs secondary that is banged up and ranked 29th against the pass and 25th against the run a year ago.  Rivers has to be salivating since he's lost eight straight to K.C. (2-6 ATS). Look for Rivers to attack that pass defense through the air and the reason is two-fold. Not only does it allow the Chargers to play with a lead if successful, but it could put the Chiefs in a hole in which they are forced to pass. The Chargers would love to make the Chiefs one-dimensional and be forced to rely on the production of rookie quarterback Patrick Mahomes in the face of the Chargers' pass-rush combo of Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. The Bolts by 6. 

Not exactly a marquee matchup, but I will side with what appears to be the better team coming into the season. Tennessee looked lost in the preseason and while that is not a great barometer, the Titans look like a team searching for answers. M. Mariota is working with another new offensive coordinator this year which is supposed to tailor the offense to his skills. We will see. R. Tannehill looks to employ the running game and converting on short passes. Tennessee upgraded it secondary, but time will tell on this. Miami's a rotten home favorite but is a very respectable 27-17 ATS as an underdog of three points or less. Fish win. 

Sticking with history in the battle for the Victory Bell. Cincinnati has won 12 in a row over Miami-O. There is nothing to suggest based on that alone the Redhawks should be favored on a neutral field. Watch Miami throw for yards, but find the end zone hard to reach, while the Bearcats pound away on the ground and wear their in-state rivals down. Cincy by 3. 

Southern Miss was the far more impressive team last against a weaker opponent. Yet Monroe put up 554 yards last week which shows their diverse offensive potential and they have 17 starters back. Southern Miss comes into this contest 3-14 ATS at home after outgaining foe by 225 or more total yards. The point spread is right in the Warhawks wheelhouse since they are 20-8 ATS as a road underdog of seven points or less. The clincher, in the first two weeks of the season, teams like Monroe that closed out last season with three or more straight losses, returning 8+ offensive starters and a QB, against opponent returning 5 or less defensive starters are 26-4 ATS.

Southern Miss was the far more impressive team last against a weaker opponent. Yet Monroe put up 554 yards last week which shows their diverse offensive potential and they have 17 starters back. Southern Miss comes into this contest 3-14 ATS at home after outgaining foe by 225 or more total yards. The point spread is right in the Warhawks wheelhouse since they are 20-8 ATS as a road underdog of seven points or less. The clincher, in the first two weeks of the season, teams like Monroe that closed out last season with three or more straight losses, returning 8+ offensive starters and a QB, against opponent returning 5 or less defensive starters are 26-4 ATS.

Let's face it, betting against Georgia is not a particularly wise move these days. Yet, this South Carolina crew has a bit of an edge about them and coming into the season and they were a spotlight team that might be taking flight this season. The Gamecocks have a good offensive unit and coach Will Muschamp always has the defense ready to go. Not calling for the outright upset, just like the 'Cocks as 9-4-1 ATS home roosters.

If Navy's defense could not contain Hawai'i's offense (they surrendered 59 points), what chance would they have against high-powered Memphis? The Midshipmen rarely have two clunkers in a row and coach Ken Niumatalolo has been great at getting his team's attention right away and is 14-3 ATS after scoring and allowing 30 points or more in their last outing. There is nothing really bad to say about Memphis, other than the fact they are 4-14 ATS after scoring 50 points or more last game. Memphis might win, just by four or less.  

Lane Kiffin's FAU crew was humbled at Oklahoma and needs to deliver a superior effort. But Air Force is not just any road underdog and in recent years, they have covered the spread at Michigan, Michigan State, and Boise State. Those places are far more intimating and the Falcons are 7-2 ATS the last few years catching points.

Atlanta and Philadelphia were largely sleep-walking thru the NFL preseason. In surmising this contest, going to be a little trendy, as in looking at the trends. Since 2000, the Super Bowl champions the opening week of the season are 11-6-1 ATS (15-3 SU). This makes sense on a couple levels. It starts with the champs being at home in a celebratory situation. Their confidence is high and starting a new year, they do not want to be the team stumbles early and everyone talking about the old - hunter vs. hunted - scenario. Also, I know the preseason is not supposed to matter, but the Falcons were 0-4. This might not matter in a few weeks, but for my money, consider that conundrum and their 1-8 SU and ATS record in Philly. 

More than one sportsbook has Ed Orgeron as their first coach fired in 2018. New LSU quarterback Joe Burrow could not get playing time at Ohio State and transferred to the bayou. Take those two giant chips on people's shoulders and add in a strong running game and a defense that is only lacking in game experience and we might have an upset brewing. Orgeron likes to meddle a bit, but he has high-priced assistants he just needs to leave alone and get his Tigers ready to play. Orgeron, either as a head coach or an assistant, always performed best when the least was expected from his squads. LSU can win this game and remember, the half point hook could be very important. 

Hawai'i gave up 653 yards to Colorado State! And most importantly for this game, 5.3 YPC. The Rainbow Warriors offense looked great last week and as usual, Navy has a bunch of players to replace and the Hawai'i passing game has a few explosive guys. If this is short of 70 points I'll be shocked. Navy wins 42-31. 

There is a lot of talk about the strength of the SEC, especially at the top these days, with several weaker clubs a couple rungs down. There is a presumption since this game is in SEC territory (Atlanta), it will be like a home game for the Tigers. But Auburn has just one O-Line returning and if they push a very good Washington defensive front around, they would be an upset. The Huskies secondary is again oozing talent and playing in the Pac-12, they see plenty of exceptional pass receivers. No question the pressure is on Washington to stand up for the conference and it's time for QB Jake Browning to have a breakout performance.

Iowa for years was money during the nonconference part of the Hawkeyes schedule when coach Kirk Ferentz was doing his predecessor Hayden Fry imitation. But those days are gone with Iowa just 13-18-1 ATS in the role the last seven years. NIU's been down a bit the past three years with QB injuries but Marcus Childers fits their system. The offensive line is always tough and on defense, the Huskies are strong in the trenches and in the secondary. With NIU 13-4 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points recently, Iowa escapes by 8.

Washington State is not New Mexico State, but Wyoming showed right away what kind of defense they have, permitting one score with 76 seconds remaining when leading 29-0. The Cougars have to break in a new quarterback and have just four offensive starters back. Coach Mike Leach's team will move the ball because they always do, but look for Wyoming to force turnovers and turn those into points. With the Cowboys 16-6 ATS at home after out-gaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game, expect a minor upset in Laramie.

The Big Ten made a deal with networks to play games on days other than Saturday's, which will bring them in even more money. The winner of this game stays in contention for the bridesmaid spot behind Wisconsin in the Big Ten West. QB Clayton Thorson is loved by NFL scouts for his arm and demeanor. He's coming off a major injury, but limited reports have his mobility in good form. Northwestern is the bigger stronger team and is 8-3 ATS (6-5 SU) at West Lafayette and under coach Pat Fitzgerald, they are a sharp 27-15 ATS as road underdogs.

The Cowboys return 18 starters from a year ago, but one person who is missing is first round pick Josh Allen, while New Mexico State lost two of their best offensive players in school history and their quarterback. Even with Allen, Wyoming was 125th in offense last year and this group will be far more experienced and presumably will play better. Both teams return a number of defensive starters but Wyoming's might be the best in MWC and Top 5 in all of the West.

The Cowboys have not always thrived in the role as road favorites and are 5-10 ATS since 2007, but New Mexico State is 2-8 ATS in their first lined home game of a new campaign and 16-25-2 ATS as a home underdog the last decade. Both teams have to find quarterbacks, but I'll side with Wyoming because their personnel losses were not as steep and they have a sounder all-around squad. Wyoming by 6 or more.  

I know it is never wise to bet against Tom Brady in a big game, especially when his team is favored. However, this Philadelphia squad has the look of destiny about it. Nick Foles has become a competent quarterback and his coaches have placed in him in the best position to succeed. This is arguably the weakest New England defense by personnel they have taken into the Super Bowl. With coach Doug Pederson's aggressive nature, they will pound the ball up the middle, followed by shots down the right side outside the hash-marks. On defense, Philadelphia has what the New York Giants had in beating the Patriots in two Super Bowls, a dynamic four-man pass rush that can disrupt Brady. This will extremely close game, with Philly a 24-23 winner.

There are a vast number of people that believe New England is a lock to reach the Super Bowl with Pittsburgh out of the way. Considering the Patriots history tied to current head coach and quarterback, hard to argue with this logic. There are naysayers who look at Jacksonville's defensive potential and point to what Blake Bortles is capable of in a given game, if not week to week. However, unlike the Steelers last week, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady will not be looking towards next game, they will be fully focused on this one. If any coach and his defensive staff is likely to put together game plan to get Bortles out of his comfort zone, it will be the team in the blue jersey's. We will conclude with teams that have scored more than 40 points in the postseason, they are recently 3-11 and 3-10-1 ATS in next game.

Sometimes you can catch yourself, as any sports bettor does, overreacting to something that just happened. After watching Blake Bortles play like, well, Blake Bortles, it would be easy to say - He stinks - and want to go against Jacksonville in a big way. Yet in Bortles case, we have history. Other than a few periods of time this season, the former Central Florida product was again a pedestrian signal caller. There was a strong reason why Tom Coughlin and coach Doug Marrone built this team around defense and running game. This was Bortles third straight rough outing and having to play on the road at Pittsburgh, if is very difficult to imagine Jacksonville manufacturing many points. The Steelers on the other hand have a hot Ben Roethlisberger and the running game to take on Jaguars No. 21 run defense. Pittsburgh wins and covers 24-13. 

The Titans only shot to beat the Patriots is slowing their running game, forcing Tom Brady to make quicker than preferred decisions when passing and running the football. Anything else will lead to certain defeat for Tennessee. Accomplishing all three of those elements is a HUGE task on the road for the Titans. Tennessee might be able to do a couple things on their list, which could slow down the New England offense. One can assume the Patriots probably feel confident they can contain Marcus Mariota's offense and they do not need a ton of points to quell Tennessee. That is why I expect a workman-like effort from the Brady Bunch and they win going away, 28-16, making the UNDER the correct call. 

Not that there is a good matchup for Buffalo, but Jacksonville really looks to be a poor one. The Bills even with LeSean McCoy only has scored 17.8 points per game on the road this season. Match that up against a Jaguars defense that was second in fewest yards allowed and fewest points conceded. Next, have McCoy at less than 100 percent or not playing at all, that leaves Tyrod Taylor having to survive the NFL's No.2 sack defense, who was also second in interceptions. Next up, let's look at how the Bills are going to stop the Jaguars offense. Though they faltered a bit at the end of the season, Jacksonville was still the league's top rushing offense. They will be mightily determined to play - ground and pound - against Buffalo, who finished 29th in run defense. Make it the Jags 27-10.

The Atlanta Falcons are out to defend their NFC title and how they might accomplish it will be quite different. Last season Atlanta was the top scoring team in the NFL at 33.8 PPG. This season, for a variety of reasons, much has changed and they are down to 22.1 PPG. Normally, this would keep most teams out of the playoffs, but the Falcons defensive improvement has kept them afloat, going from 25.4 to 19.7 PPG allowed. To knock off Los Angeles, the Atlanta defense has to slow the new No.1 scoring offense in the Rams and take away RB Todd Gurley. For the first time in 19 years, Atlanta was in the Top 10 in total and scoring defense and was 7-1 SU when holding opponent under 100 yards on the ground. The Dirty Birds are 5-3 SU on the road and the Rams are only 3-4 SU at home, with the score differentials -1 to +4. Add in Atlanta having kicker edge with Zuerlein out, this becomes tight contest. 

The third installment of this playoff battle has a completely different storylines than the previous two. Alabama was thought to have a nearly perfect team, but that was until they went 2-5 ATS down the stretch, and were decidedly beaten by Auburn. The old "Give Nick Saban a month to prepare" was dispelled by Clemson last year in the title game (and largely the year prior). The Crimson Tide might have revenge, but the Tigers want back-to-back titles like Bama did in 2011-12.

For my money, Saban is the greatest college football coach ever, but eventually the tide changes (pun intended) and Dabo Sweeney has a team which has no fear of Bama. Check out these numbers, the underdog in Clemson's last 15 bowl games is 14-1 ATS, which includes Swinney being 7-0 ATS in that role. Finally, Swinney's teams are 9-1 SU after the regular season ends since 2012 and are underdogs as the top seed! Clemson outright!

I understand Baker Mayfield is a great quarterback and his team is loaded offensively. But this Georgia team is loaded in all facets. The Bulldogs will keep Mayfield off the field with their potent running game that averages 264 YPG, at 5.8 YPC. If Georgia runs as expected, Mayfield is standing on the sidelines. And this can happen as four different teams have rushed for over 200 yards against the Sooners. While I think Oklahoma is dangerous, Georgia is just better, the Dawgs by 7. 

Strong Leans - South Carolina, Notre Dame, Tigers/Knights OVER 67

This game has been following me around since the bowl matchups were made on Dec. 3rd. Almost every handicapper I know, (there are exceptions) has been on UCF and I understood why. And it was for the usual reasons, Auburn might be flat or uninterested and Central Florida will want to win for their coach, themselves and make history for being unbeaten. Saturday convinced me what the right choice was. If Iowa State could slow Memphis offense down, which was 2nd best scoring team in the country, why can't a top defense like Auburn contain UCF? The Tigers will have a much stronger pass rush and while I like the Knights QB, he's never seen a D-Line or secondary like this. If USF and Memphis can score 42 or more at UCF, why can't Auburn score in the upper 40's? I am done for now handicapping games in which a team could be flat if they have had more than three weeks to prepare. In a world of everything being instant, why young players hang on to previous disappointment? Bigger, faster, stronger Auburn wins 48-34. 

Buffalo is a long shot to make the AFC playoffs, but they still have chance with a victory. For this to happen, the Bills will need to score more than season average of 18.7 points per game. And I think they will against Miami. If you drop nine points they gave up to Denver, in the Dolphins other nine most recent games they have allowed over 30 PPG. Not every team with motivation wins, however, then the line is +3 to -3 and the home team (Miami) off one or more Under's and on the season is outscored by 5 or more points per game in the first half, in last 76 contests, they have lost by 5.9 PPG. Buffalo by 7.

There is a lot on the line for Carolina and Atlanta conflict. The Falcons are back in the postseason with a victory and very likely out if they falter. The Panthers will at least be a wild card team and with a triumph and good fortune, they might even have a home playoff game next weekend. This leads me to believe defense and careful football will rule the day. Atlanta's offense has not been the same as last year and they are 11-2 UNDER after two or more losses against the spread and 8-0 UNDER off four or more consecutive Under's. With the total at 45, I found the Panthers average score is 42 total points in away games and just below 40 points in NFC South confrontations. No problem backing the UNDER.

When I first thought about this pick, I was squeamish, wondering if I was making the right choice. Mississippi State not having QB Nick Fitzgerald is a big deal, but that offensive line could push Louisville around for 60 minutes. Then I realized that Lamar Jackson will want to go out in style and if this turns into a high scoring contest as expected, that is a decided advantage for the Cardinals, with the Bulldogs not really capable of playing at a frenetic pace. This to me is where the game changes and Jackson will be the difference-maker and the 'Ville builds on three-game winning streak and wins 38-28.

After being thrashed by Duke in Northwestern's second game, the Wildcats looked like one of the most overrated teams this season and were sitting at 2-3 after Penn State shellacking. Then the squad we expected to see showed up and they been gathering momentum ever sense. Northwestern is on 7-0 SU and ATS tear, playing tremendous run defense and running the pigskin down the opponents throats. Kentucky might be getting seven points, but it will not be enough and in their past two contests against stellar rushing teams, they have been ground up for 727 yards. When 'Cats find their stride they can be hard to stop and they are 11-3 ATS away after two or more spread winners. Northwestern by 13 or more.

After losing three in a row in the middle of the season, the Wake Forest offense got white hot and over a four-game stretch was 3-1 and 4-0 ATS and fabulous in averaging 43.2 PPG. I do not see Texas A&M being particularly inspired in this contest, with their future ahead of them with Jimbo Fisher as head coach. Toss in the Demon Deacons are 7-0 ATS in December bowl games, I like them by a touchdown or more. 

The Eagles hit the Bronx on an 8-0-1 ATS streak, and with SU wins in five of their last six, including routs of Virginia, Florida State and Syracuse. The Boston College defense has allowed 17 points or fewer in five consecutive games, and held three opponents to 10 or fewer points. B.C. also has averaged 290 yards per game rushing the back end of the season. Iowa has lost five straight bowl games and gave up over 200 yards on the ground to three good running teams, which Boston College fits. The clincher, ACC-Big Ten bowl underdogs are incredible 17-1-1 ATS when these two conferences meet.