At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, February 11th, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (102) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (101) in the Super Bowl. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (14-6) is on a five-game winning streak after their 17-10 upset victory at Baltimore as a 4.5-point upset on January 28th. San Francisco (14-5) has won two games in a row as well as nine of their last 11 contests after their 34-31 win against Detroit as a 7.5-point favorite on January 28th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS PLUS THE POINTS: The so-called “sharps” are on the 49ers for this game — but, like the public, the sharps are wrong about out half the time. The sharps were on the Ravens against Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game, they were on Philadelphia in last year’s Super Bowl, and they were on Washington against Michigan in the College Football National Championship Game — just to name a few recent results. I think the sharps and the computer models are failing to appreciate the improvements Kansas City made on the offensive side of the ball as they entered crunch time this season. Frankly, since losing wide receiver Tyreek Hill in free agency two years ago, the Chiefs have been reconfiguring their offensive attack. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes went through a period when he was struggling against two-high safety shell concepts that took away explosive plays. He figured that out last season in time to win a Super Bowl with wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster stepping up as a reliable complementary option to tight end Travis Kelce. The team let Smith-Schuster go in the offseason with the idea that it was time for their cadre of young wide receivers to now step up. Then the dropsies took place to the frustration of head coach Andy Reid and Mahomes. One of the decisions Reid made in the run-up to the playoffs was to give up on Kadarius Toney — and that was addition by subtraction. Rookie Rashee Rice has emerged as the number one wideout option — in his three postseason games, he has caught 20 passes from 25 targets for 223 yards and one touchdown. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has become the deep-threat third option — as he demonstrated in the upset win against Buffalo. Kelce was incredible in the AFC Championship Game against Baltimore. Isiah Pacheco is being leaned on even more — in his last six games, he has averaged 21.8 touches per game and 98.8 total Yards-Per-Game. He is being used more in the passing game with 21 targets and 20 receptions in his last six contests. The play of the two new starting tackles on the offensive line has been a disappointment all season — but Mahomes has learned what free-agent signees Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor can and cannot do and has adapted. Reid was keeping Kelce in to block often this season to his frustration — but the blocking has been better lately allowing the future Hall of Fame to run more pass routes. It’s chip time now — so the Chiefs will be 100% dialed in for this game. Often, the reigning Super Bowl champs suffer a letdown the next season.  This team is different — they suffered their growing pains early in the season after losing the opening night game to Detroit. This group has faced adversity — and overcome it. Along the way, this team has found a new identity. So, rather than expecting any lessening of intensity as the defending champions, I will repeat: it’s chip time. Despite only gaining 319 total yards against the Ravens, they controlled the time of possession by being on offense for 37:30 minutes. Tom Brady won more than one Super Bowl content to keep the opponent’s offense off the field. And in their triumph against Buffalo, the Chiefs only had the ball for 22:57 minutes on Sunday — but their offense was as explosive as it has been all season as they generated 7.68 Yards-Per-Play and gained 361 total yards to outscore the Bills (and it should have been even more points if not for Mecole Hardman’s fumble in the end zone touchback in the second half). This year’s Chiefs team possesses the best defense in the Mahomes era — they are holding their opponents to 294.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 16.8 Points-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is somehow still underrated despite him attempting to win his fourth Super Bowl as a defensive coordinator going back to the chip he won as the DC for the New York Giants against a Brady-led Patriots team in 2008. They face a San Francisco team that has good underlying numbers — but what if they are being propped up from enjoying a relatively easy schedule involving mediocre NFC teams? In hindsight, Dallas and Philadelphia do not appear to be at the same level as the cream of the crop in the AFC. Three of the Niners’ five losses were against teams from the AFC. The Lions emerged from the ashes this season — and they outplayed the 49ers in most of the NFC Championship Game. Detroit outgained the Niners by 29 net yards — and it took reckless fourth down play-calling by head coach Dan Campbell to breathe life into this San Francisco team to draw the proverbial inside straight necessary to rally from a 17-point halftime deficit to steal that game. The Lions generated 442 yards of offense against what was considered an elite 49ers defense. And then there is Brock Purdy. I think those of us who have handicapped every single Purdy game going back to his days at Iowa State have a unique perspective about him. He’s got talent — but he has a long history of disappointment in big games going back to his Cyclones career. No, I don’t think he should be awarded the MVP this season. But let’s assume his best comp is Tom Brady — yet he is just in Year Two of his trajectory to match the future seven-time Super Bowl winner. Brady was considered a “game manager” in his second season as a pro. In 2024, Purdy versus Mahomes is a mismatch. I appreciated Purdy’s sneaky mobility — but that is no longer any secret after he ran for 48 yards against the Lions with his legs being the secret weapon to the offense in the second half of that game. But take away the lucky Brandon Aiyuk tipped catch for that pivotal 51-yard game in the second half of that game — and Purdy only completes 19 of 31 passes for 216 yards against a bad Detroit pass defense that had allowed 346.2 passing Yards-Per-Game in their previous five games. Purdy processes plays quickly — and he understands and executes the sophisticated Kyle Shanahan offense. But he still tends to throw too many of his passes to the right side of the field — and he bails out too quickly to his left Spagnuolo will be all over that — especially with two weeks to prepare. Lamar Jackson is likely to win the MVP award this season — but Spags made the world remember Jackson’s mediocre playoff history completely frustrating him in the AFC Championship Game.

FINAL TAKE: No offense to the San Francisco coaching staff or their defense — but Kansas City has the edge in both coaching and the defensive unit. The 49ers have the better skill position players — but then there is Mahomes versus Purdy. Even if Purdy is as good as his most vocal defenders insist, it’s another net disadvantage in this matchup. The 49ers are outscoring their opponents by +10.4 Points-Per-Game — but the Chiefs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in the second half of the season against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG. 25* National Football League Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (102) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (322) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (321) in the NFC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (13-5) has won two of their last three games after their 24-21 win against Green Bay as a 10.5-point favorite last Saturday. Detroit (14-5) won for the fifth time in their last six games with their 31-23 victory against Tampa Bay as a 6-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Wide receiver Deebo Samuel got injured early in that game against the Packers — and his absence on the field disrupts the San Francisco offense as the primary offset to Christian McCaffrey to force dilemmas for opposing defenses. The Niners have an 8-9 straight-up record in their last 17 games without Samuel — so his presence is critical. Head coach Kyle Shanahan removed him from the injury list on Friday — so I am comfortable endorsing San Francisco in this contest. Even if Samuel is not 100% with his shoulder injury (although there is no structural damage), his presence demands attention from the defense and allows Shanahan to dial up his full assortment of formations that utilize his four “jokers” players of tight end George Kittle, fullback Kyle Juszczyk along with McCaffrey and Samuel who can line up anywhere on the field. Shanahan is going to ride McCaffrey, particularly in this game with everything on the line and with two weeks between this contest and the Super Bowl. In his last four games, McCaffrey is generating 6.03 Yards-Per-Carry — and he is being used more in the passing game and averaging 7.1 Yards-Per-Reception. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a point spread victory. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win by six points or less. When playing at home at Levi’s Stadium, the Niners are outscoring their opponents by +7.6 Points-Per-Game with their defense limiting their opponents to 294.6 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 19.3 PPG. The addition of Chase Young has given the defense a second pass rusher to complement Nick Bosa on the other side of the defensive line. While Young does not have huge sack numbers, he has made an impact with 74 pressures on the quarterback since his arrival in November. Quarterback Brock Purdy struggled early in the game last week as he adjusted to the rain (he tried wearing a glove) — but he did everything necessary to orchestrate the game-winning drive late. Purdy now has a 4-1 straight-up record against quarterbacks drafted in the first round. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after a win at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the playoffs. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 43 road games after winning two or more games in a row. And while the Lions have covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 33 road games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Detroit has not allowed more than 89 rushing yards in six straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games on the road after not allowing 100 or more yards in two or more games in a row. But three of those six opponents did not rush the ball more than 17 times since they were focused on passing against a suspect defensive secondary. The Lions have given up 319 passing yards in five straight games — and their last five opponents have generated 346.2 passing YPG against them. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing 275 or more passing YPG in their last three games. Despite winning three games in a row, they got outgained in each of those contests — and they have an unsustainable -58.3 net YPG clip during that stretch despite all three of those games being played at home. Injuries on the offensive line are a significant concern since this was one of the team’s biggest strengths. Underrated left guard Jonah Jackson is out for this game which means undrafted journeyman Kayode Awosokika gets the start after the Lions picked up off waivers after Philadelphia cut him in the preseason. Center Frank Ragnow will play despite several injuries slowing him down — but he is far from 100% and did not have the same push-off last week after injuring his ankle and knee against the Buccaneers. Now the Lions go back on the road for the first time in 2024 where they got outscored in the regular season. Jared Goff was much more effective when playing at Ford Field where he posted a 107.9 Quarterback Rating while completing 70.1% of his passes and averaging 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt — but on the road, his QBR drops to 107.9 while completing 64.8% of his passes and averaging just 7.1 YPA. Detroit is playing with house money after winning playoff games for the first time since 1991 — but this remains a franchise that has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of the last 9 playoff games.

FINAL TAKE: The Lions have a 5-3 straight-up win against teams who made the playoffs — but they have a net point differential of 0.0 by scoring and allowing 22 PPG. The 49ers have a 6-3 straight-up record against playoff teams — but they have an averaging winning margin of +9.5 PPG by scoring 28 PPG and allowing just 18.5 PPG in those contests. 25* NFC Game of the Year with the San Francisco 49ers (322) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (321). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (302) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (301). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (13-4) had their six-game winning streak snapped in a 17-10 loss at home to Pittsburgh as a 3-point underdog back on January 6th. Houston (11-7) has won three games in a row after their 45-14 upset victory at home against Cleveland as a 2-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: We were on Houston last week — but their triumph last week likely sets them up for a big emotional letdown now. As it is, the Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a double-digit upset win. The final score is deceiving since Houston only outgained the Browns by +32 net yards. Joe Flacco threw two pick-sixes in the second half to account for 14 of the Texans' points in the end. Houston only managed 14 first downs and generated only 356 yards of offense in the win. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 63 games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin. Furthermore, the Texans have covered the point spread in their last three games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Houston has been a much better team at home where they have a 7-3 record — but they are just 4-4 on the road where they are getting outscored by -1.8 Points-Per-Game and outgained by -16.3 net Yards-Per-Game. Admittedly, rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud is a much better quarterback at this point of the season than he was in Week One when he played on the road against the Ravens in a 25-9 loss. But Stroud has not nearly been as effective when playing on the road this season. Stroud posted a 108.3 Quarterback Rating in his ten games at home where he completed 65.5% of his passes with 17 touchdown passes while averaging 310.8 passing YPG on 8.9 Yards-Per-Attempt. But in his eight games on the road, his QBR drops to 91.5 as he completes only 62.0% of his passes with only six touchdown passes while averaging 231.7 passing YPG on 7.3 YPA. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games with the Total set from 42.5-45. Baltimore earned the luxury to rest their starters two weeks ago with the number seed in the AFC locked up — so they are rested and ready for this matchup. As it is, the Ravens have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a loss to an AFC North rival — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. The Ravens have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning four of their last five games. The Texans have struggled against mobile quarterbacks this season — they rank last in the league by allowing seven rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks. And while their run defense has improved, they did surrender 227 rushing yards to the Colts two weeks ago. Expect a heavy dose of play-action pass plays from Lamar Jackson as well since Houston ranks 30th in the league action play-action pass plays. Baltimore outscores their opponents by +14.1 PPG and outgains them by +80.0 YPG when playing at home. They generate 391.3 YPG resulting in 31.9 PPG at home. They also hold their guests to just 311.3 total YPG resulting in 17.8 PPG.  The Ravens have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the second half of the season against teams winning 60-75% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: There may not be a defensive coordinator in the NFL that is more familiar with Stroud than Baltimore’s Mike Macdonald who probably scouted him daily for an entire year when Stroud was a junior at Ohio State and Macdonald was the Michigan defensive coordinator looking to break their long-losing streak to the Buckeyes three years ago. Macdonald was able to update his book on Stroud for their opening game this season — and he will be well aware of his improvements with the deep ball now. The Ravens lead the NFL by holding opposing QBs to just a 74 Passer Rating — and they only allow 192 passing YPG. The Texans average 7.3 YPA in the passing game — but Baltimore has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against teams who generate 7.0 or more YPA. 25* AFC Game of the Year with the Baltimore Ravens (302) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (148) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (147). THE SITUATION: Dallas (12-5) has won two games in a row as well as seven of their last nine games after their 38-10 victory at Washington as a 13.5-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay (9-8) has won three games in a row as well as six of their last eight contests with their 17-9 victory against Chicago as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Dallas dominated the Commanders last week to secure the second seed in the NFC playoffs — they outgained them by +260 net yards while generating 440 yards of offense. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining 400 or more yards in their last game. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after beating a fellow NFC East rival — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win on the road against a divisional rival. Additionally, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games after winning two of their last three games. They limited Washington to just 50 rushing yards in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 home games after not allowing more than 50 rushing yards in their last contest. They get to host this playoff game at AT&T Stadium where they have been dominant this season with an 8-0 record along with an average winning margin of +10.4 PPG. The smartest thing head coach Mike McCarthy did in the offseason was to clean up the Cowboys’ pre-snap routine with Dak Prescott’s verbal cue of “here we go” indication the snap is coming soon. The process seems to have given the offense both a comfortable rhythm and an identity — and the results speak for themselves as they are generating 425.8 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 37.4 Points-Per-Game when at home. Defensive coordinator Dan Quinn’s defense also shines a home where they are holding their opponents to just 305.8 YPG and 15.9 PPG. Dallas has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games at home including six of their eight home games this season. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games against fellow NFC opponents. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing at Lambeau Field in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 games this season after winning at home in their last game. The Packers' offense has found a rhythm themselves with Jordan Love’s continued development at quarterback. They have averaged 423.7 YPG in their last three games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after averaging 400 or more YPG in their last three contests.  The Green Bay defense has held their last two opponents to 192 and 211 yards of offense — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 250 total yards in two straight games. The secondary has been hit hard by injuries. Safety Rudy Ford is on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. Cornerback Jaire Alexander is questionable with both a shoulder and an ankle — and if he is not at 100%, then he is vulnerable to getting burned by CeeDee Lamb since he is the team’s top cover man. As it is, the Packers' pass defense has been a vulnerability — they gave up 298 passing yards to Carolina and 353 passing yards to Tampa Bay last month. Running back A.J. Dillon is also doubtful with a thumb and neck leaving the running back duties to Aaron Jones. Green Bay only outgained their opponents by +10.4 net YPG this season — and they got outgained by -2.7 net YPG when playing on the road. They have been fortunate to win five of their last six games decided by one-scoring possession.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas is outscoring their opponents by +11.4 net PPG while generating 29.9 PPG. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +10 PPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games against opponents who are scoring 29 or more PPG. 25* NFL Wild Card Playoff Game of the Year with the Dallas Cowboys (148) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (147). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (142) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (141). THE SITUATION: Houston (10-7) enters the postseason coming off their 23-19 victory at Indianapolis as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Cleveland (11-6) had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 31-14 loss at Cincinnati as a 7-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINTS: Houston has been playing good football down the stretch with seven victories in their last ten games — and they won a de-facto playoff game on the road last week in their victory against the Colts. Quarterback C.J. Stroud continues to impress for this team as he completed 20 of 26 passes for 264 yards with two touchdown passes — and he led the Texans down the field for the game-winning touchdown midway through the fourth quarter. The rookie does not make many mistakes with only five interceptions this season — and he has not thrown an interception in his last 144 throws. Winning the AFC South title earned them the right to host a playoff game at home at NRG Stadium where they had a 6-3 record this season. They outscored their guests by +4.3 net Points-Per-Game and outgained them by +36.5 net Yards-Per-Game. Houston has underrated defense under first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans — they held their last three opponents to just 321.7 YPG resulting in 19.3 PPG. The Texans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Cleveland rested key starters last week after having already clinched an AFC wildcard spot. And while they have covered the point spread in two of their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. The Browns surrendered 183 rushing yards to the Bengals last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after giving up 175 or more rushing yards in their last game. Veteran quarterback Joe Flacco has been a surprise for this team as the fifth starting quarterback they have needed this season. But injuries on both sides of the ball may be taking a toll. Cleveland was a much better team when playing at home this season where they finished 8-1 while holding their opponents to 13.9 PPG. But they were just 3-5 in their eight games on the road while getting outscored by -5.2 net PPG due to their defense giving up 29.6 PPG. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games when favored by up to seven points.  Furthermore, Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in January.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Browns’ 36-22 victory in Houston as a 3-point road favorite back on December 24th. Stroud did not play in that game as he was still in concussion protocol — and Flacco outplayed Davis Mills and Case Keenum in what was his fourth start for Cleveland at the time. Flacco did throw two interceptions in that game — and his eight interceptions in his five starts could be a canary in the coal mine in this rematch. The Texans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing avenging a loss at home. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 home games when playing with revenge from a loss where they gave up 28 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 home games when avenging a loss where they gave up 35 or more points. 25* AFC Wild Card Playoff Game of the Year with the Houston Texans (142) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (141). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (456) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (455). THE SITUATION: Miami (11-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 56-19 loss at Baltimore as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Buffalo (10-6) has won four games in a row with their 27-21 win against New England as a 14.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: The decks seem stacked against Miami tonight. They are undermanned with several significant injuries. The defense is without cornerback Xavien Howard and linebacker Bradley Chubb. The offense will miss wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and running back Raheem Mostert. The team has earned the reputation of folding against good teams — they have three losses by 14 or more points and they have just one victory in five games against teams that entered the week in playoff position. The Bills mafia play to make their presence felt in Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium. And quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has lost five of his six starts against Josh Allen. But we bet numbers — not teams — and I like the Dolphins as a home underdog in this position as a cornered animal that everyone seems to be doubting. Miami is in the playoffs — but a victory clinches the AFC East title which has them host the Bills again next week which is a much better alternative rather than traveling to Kansas City to play Patrick Mahomes in cold weather. The Dolphins still have Tyreek Hill. And they still have running back De’Von Achane who generated 137 yards from scrimmage on 18 touches last week with Mostert out. Miami has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss by 14 or more points. And while they endured a -2 net turnover margin last week, they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after posting a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after winning two of their last three games. The Dolphins have a 7-1 record at home where they are outscoring their opponents by +17.2 net Points-Per-Game. Their defense holds their guests to 285.8 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in only 16.9 PPG. Miami has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in six of their eight home games this season. Furthermore, the Dolphins have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home with the Total set at 45.5 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games at home with the Total in the 45.5-49 point range. Buffalo has lifted themselves off the mat after a midseason stretch where they lost five of eight games to clinch their spot in the postseason. But consistency remains an issue for this group. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win at home against an AFC East rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win at home where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Furthermore, Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning three or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games after winning four or more games in a row. The Bills go back on the road where they have not been nearly as good this season with a 3-5 record away from home. They are allowing 18.6 PPG and 309.2 YPG this season — but those numbers by +3.8 PPG and +34.7 YPG when they are on the road. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 road games in January. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Dolphins have something to prove tonight since one of their three bad losses this season was in Buffalo when the Bills destroyed them by a 48-20 score as a 2.5-point favorite on October 1st. Miami demonstrated they could hang with Buffalo last season as all three of their games including in the playoffs were decided by three points or less. The Dolphins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities to avenge a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road by 14 or more points. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year is with the Miami Dolphins (456) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (455). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (463) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (464). THE SITUATION: Chicago (7-9) has won two games in a row as well as four of their last five contests after their 37-17 victory against Atlanta as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay (8-8) has won two games in a row as well as five of their last seven games with their 33-10 victory at Minnesota as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bears get to play the role of the spoiler this afternoon against a Packers team that ensures their spot in the playoffs with a victory. Detroit was in this position last year — and they spoiled Green Bay’s playoff aspirations on Sunday Night Football in what was Aaron Rodgers' last game with the franchise. Chicago is playing good football for head coach Matt Eberflus. The Bears outgained the Falcons by +125 net yards by holding them to just 307 yards. Chicago’s improvement has started on the defensive side of the field. Since Week 12, they lead the NFL by holding their opponents to 14.6 Points-Per-Game — and they are tied for first in the league with 14 takeaways during that span. Acquiring Montez Sweat from Washington midseason was the beginning of the transformation for what is now a very physical defense. After allowing 24 PPG pre-trade, the Bears have given up 18 PPG since that trade. Chicago has covered the point spread in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. The Bears' rushing attack has fueled their offense — they have generated 177 rushing YPG in their last three games with their rushers averaging 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry. Chicago has outrushed each of those opponents by at least +59 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after outrushing three straight opponents by +50 or more yards. Furthermore, the Bears have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against fellow NFC opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Green Bay had not covered the point spread in three straight games before their 23-point win against the Vikings — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread just once in their last three games. The Packers rushed for 177 yards in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after rushing for 175 or more yards in their last game. Green Bay's rushing attack will be without running back A.J. Dillon who had seven carries last week — so their ground game is not at full strength. Additionally, the Packers held the Vikings to only a field goal in the first half of that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their previous contest. Green Bay’s defense is a liability — they have surrendered 352.3 YPG in their last three games resulting in 24.7 PPG. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 65.6% of their passes in the last three games resulting in 265 passing YPG and 8.3 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has the pressure on this afternoon — Chicago is in the cat bird’s seat with this opportunity to screw their rival while playing consequence-free since they are already out of the playoff race. Furthermore, the Bears have something to prove after suffering a humiliating 38-20 upset loss at home to the Packers as a 1-point favorite back in Week One on September 10th. The Bears have covered the points spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities to exact some in-season revenge. 25* NFC North Underdog of the Year with the Chicago Bears (463) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (464). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (469) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Indianapolis Colts (470). THE SITUATION: Houston (9-7) has won two of their last three games after their 26-3 victory against Tennessee as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Indianapolis (9-7) has won two of their last three games as well as six of their last eight after their 23-20 victory against Las Vegas as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Both teams need to win this game to make the playoffs (and with some help, the winner can win the AFC South). Houston dominated the Titans last week by outgaining them by +125 net yards. The Texans held Tennessee to just 187 yards of offense in the victory. While rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud gets most of the attention as the likely AFC Rookie of the Year, the play of head coach DeMeco Ryans’ defense is the reason why this team is in a position to potentially make the playoffs with a win in this game. Houston ranks third in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 88.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game. They rank second in the league in Rush Defense using the DVOA metrics of the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). Since Week Eight, the Texans rank third in the NFL in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. They have held their last three opponents to just 269.7 total Yards-Per-Game. Houston went into halftime last week with a 20-3 halftime lead — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit victory. Stroud was sold in his return from missing time after suffering a concussion — he completed 24 of 32 passes for 213 yards with a touchdown pass and no interceptions. He has 21 touchdown passes this season with only five interceptions. Like most quarterbacks, his numbers decline when facing a pass rush — but the Colts do not thrive in this area. Indianapolis ranks 21st in  Pressure Rate according to the Pro Football Reference metrics — and they fall to 24th in pressure rate according to DVOA. Stroud is completing 68.3% of his passes when in a clean pocket with a 9.3 Yards-Per-Attempt rate, 19 touchdown passes, and a Passer Rating of 111.3. Additionally, left tackle Laremy Tunsil was back in practice later this week after dealing with an injury — so he is expected to play. The Texans are 11th in the NFL with the lowest Pressure Rate on the QB Allowed and in the top ten in Pass Blocking according to Pro Football Focus. Stroud also leads the NFL with a 122.8 Passer Rating when trailing or when the score is tied — so he should outduel the Colts’ Gardner Minshew. While the veteran backup quarterback ranks 11th in the NFL with an interception rate of 1.9%, the deeper analytics suggest he has been fortunate to not throw more picks. He is committing turnover-worthy plays in 4.0% of his pass attempts which is the fourth-highest mark for quarterbacks with at least 300 dropbacks. Only Mac Jones, Desmond Ridder, and Josh Dobbs have a higher turnover-worthy play percentage — and that is not good company with a playoff spot on the line. First-year head coach Shane Steichen has done a great job with this team — especially after rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson suffered his season-ending injury early on. But Indianapolis is still getting outscored by -0.9 Points-Per-Game and getting outgained by -17.3 net YPG. The Texans, on the other hand, are outscoring their opponents by +1.2 PPG and outgaining them by +15.7 net YPG. The Colts get this game at home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when an underdog of up to three points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in January.

FINAL TAKE: Houston will be looking to avenge their 31-20 upset loss at home to Indianapolis as a 1-point favorite on September 17th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home. The Texans have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games against AFC South rivals. The Colts have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 against division foes. 25* AFC South Game of the Year with the Houston Texans (469) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Indianapolis Colts (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (118) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (117). THE SITUATION: New York (5-10) has lost two games in a row after their 33-25 loss at Philadelphia as a 14-point underdog last Monday. Los Angeles (8-7) has won two in a row and five of their last six games after their 30-22 victory against New Orleans as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York kept things too close for comfort for the Eagles last week despite getting outgained by -173 net yards — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards. The Giants have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss where they still covered the point spread. This team has exceeded point spread expectations lately having only failed to cover the point spread once in their last five games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in four or five games. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. New York returns home where they have won three of their last four games. The Giants' defense has been under-the-radar tough at home where they are holding their opponents to 279.8 total Yards-Per-Game and just 18.8 Points-Per-Game this season. Tyrod Taylor gets the start at quarterback — and the veteran should stabilize the position for head coach Brian Daboll. In his last three starts, Taylor has a 92.8 Passer Rating with no interceptions. Los Angeles is riding high right now — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after winning four or five of their last six games. Matthew Stafford completed 24 of 34 passes for 328 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions against the Saints last week — but the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a game where they passed for 300 or more yards. Los Angeles has scored at least 28 points in five straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road after scoring 25 or more points in four or more games in a row. The Rams have only given up seven combined points in the first half of their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than seven points in the first half in two straight games. But the Los Angeles defense has been leaky lately — and Aaron Donald has taken a step back in his production with him no longer being the best defensive player in the NFL. The Rams have surrendered 26.3 PPG in their last three games — and they rank 27th in the NFL during that span by allowing 5.8 Yards-Per-Play. They also rank 30th in the last three weeks by giving up 277.3 passing YPG. Los Angeles has not allowed more than 79 rushing yards in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: The Giants can play the role of the spoiler this afternoon against a Los Angeles team that has playoff aspirations — and with their five victories, they are out of the Caleb Williams chase for the top pick in the NFL draft. New York has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 home games as an underdog of up to seven points. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the New York Giants (118) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (117). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (104) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (103). THE SITUATION: Dallas (10-5) has lost two games in a row after their 22-20 loss at Miami as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Detroit (11-4) has won two games in a row after their 30-24 victory at Minnesota against the Vikings as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Dallas has played their last two games on the road against difficult opponents in Buffalo and Miami. The Cowboys should bounce back tonight as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a loss by six points or less. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a point spread loss. Dallas has been a much better team at home where they have scored at least 30 points in each of their games while generating 431.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 39.9 Points-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Dan Quinn’s defense limits their opponents to only 289.7 total YPG and just 15.4 PPG at home. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. Head coach Mike McCarthy expects to have left tackle Tyron Smith back on the field tonight after he participated in limited practice on Thursday — he did not play last week against the Dolphins. Detroit may be due to an emotional letdown after clinching the NFC North title last week in what was their first division title since 1993. As it is, the Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road after a win by six points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 42 games on the road after winning two games in a row. And while Detroit has won six of their last eight contests, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. The Lions go back on the road where they are getting outscored by -0.5 PPG. Detroit is allowing 25.3 PPG on the road — and they have surrendered at least 24 points in five of their last six contests away from home.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games against fellow NFC rivals. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (104) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (103). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (102) minus the points versus the New York  Jets (101). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (10-5) has won three straight games as well as six of their last eight contests after their 36-32 victory at Houston as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. New York (6-9) has won two of their last three games after a 30-28 victory against Washington as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS MINUS THE POINTS: Cleveland dominated the Texans in yardage by generating 418 total yards and outgaining Houston by +168 net yards. A 98-yard kickoff return for a touchdown helped the Texans keep the game close. The Browns are getting great play from quarterback Joe Flacco who completed 27 of 42 passes for 368 yards with three touchdowns. Flacco is 3-1 in his four starts for the team while averaging 326.8 passing Yards-Per-Game and 7.5 Yards-Per-Attempt. He has unlocked the vertical passing game for head coach Kevin Stefanski that even Deshaun Watson was not able to accomplish. In his last three starts, Flacco is leading an offense that is generating 394.7 total YPG and 29.0 PPG. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning four or five of their last six games. The Browns return home where they have been outstanding. They have held their last three opponents to 27 combined points when playing at home — and they have not allowed more than 17 points in four straight home games as well as six of their seven contests. Cleveland is limiting their guests to a mere 197.9 total YPG resulting in 13.1 PPG. They are outscoring their opponents by +7.4 PPG and outgaining them by +119.9 YPGG. The Browns have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 34 home games with the Total set in the 32.5-35 point range. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win by three points or less. The Jets held the ball for 36:16 minutes while gaining 26 first downs — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games after gaining at least 24 first downs while controlling the time of possession for 34 or more minutes. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after losing four or five of their last six contests. They have only covered the point spread once in their last nine games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread just once in their last four contests. The Jets were dominating the Commanders by going into halftime with a 27-7 score — but they almost gave the game away by getting outscored by a 21-3 margin in the second half. Their good defense is regressing after being asked to do so much this season — New York has given up 61 combined points in their last two games while surrendering 27 or more points in five of their last eight contests. The Jets have not scored more than 13 points in four straight games and five of their last six contests. In his lone start on the road this season, Trevor Siemian completed only 14 of 26 passes for just 110 yards with two interceptions in a 30-0 shutout loss at Miami. The New York offensive line has been a mess all season — and now their best lineman Duane Brown is out the season with a back injury. The Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: New York can play the role of the spoiler tonight — but after the announcement this week from owner Woody Johnson that Aaron Rodgers will get his way with general manager Joe Douglas and head coach Robert Saleh will return next season, I’m not sure the sense of urgency is as strong with this group. The Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and the Browns have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home when favored. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year with the Cleveland Browns (102) minus the points versus the New York  Jets (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (476) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (475). THE SITUATION: Denver (7-7) has lost two of their last three games after their 42-17 loss at Detroit as a 5.5-point underdog last Saturday. New England (3-11) has lost six of their last seven games after their 27-17 loss to Kansas City as a 10.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: We were on the Lions last Saturday night — but I like the bounce-back spot for Denver who return home again after playing their last three games on the road. The Broncos have a 4-3 record against teams who were in a position to make the playoffs before games started today. They have beaten both Kansas City and Cleveland at home by 15 and 17 points respectively — so this revamped group under head coach Sean Payton that is emphasizing ball control, running the football, and not asking Russell Wilson to do too much has proven capable of covering a point spread of seven or so points when playing at home. Denver has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing by ten or more points in their last game. And while they went into halftime trailing by a 21-0 score last week, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after failing to score more than three points in their last game. The Broncos did not force a turnover last week — but they still have 17 takeaways in their last seven games while forcing multiple turnovers in five of those contests. Now they host a Patriots team that has committed at least one turnover in 11 straight games — and they have only played one clean game where they did not turn the ball over. They are averaging 1.6 turnovers per game. New England has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after losing two of their last three games. Furthermore, the Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after losing three of their last four games. New England is generating only 255.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests which is resulting in just 12.7 Points-Per-Game. On the road, the Patriots are scoring 12.3 PPG and averaging 287.7 total YPG. Bailey Zappe is limited at quarterback — his initial flash when he started a handful of games last season had much to do with the benefit of playing teams with bad defenses. Now the book is out on him — and he is severely undermanned tonight. Running back Rhamondre Stevenson remains out — and wide receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kendrick Bourne are dealing with injuries as well. Additionally, tight Hunter Henry is out tonight with an ankle injury after leading the team last week with nine targets, seven catches, 66 receiving yards, and one of the team’s two touchdowns.

FINAL TAKE: The Patriots are getting outscored by -7.4 PPG when playing on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games as an underdog. It is a drag to play on the road in high altitude in Denver on Christmas Eve — especially when it has already been a lost season. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Denver Broncos (476) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (328) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (327). THE SITUATION: Seattle (6-7) has lost four games in a row after their 28-16 loss at San Francisco as a 16.5-point underdog last Sunday. Philadelphia (10-3) has lost two games in a row after their 33-13 loss at Dallas as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: As of this writing early afternoon in Las Vegas, the quarterback battle appears to be Jalen Hurts dealing with a flu bug or something against Drew Lock. Given the number of more than a field goal, I like the Seahawks as a home underdog. Hurts did not travel with the team but is in Seattle — he will be a game-time decision. I expect him to play — but I won’t be mad if backup Marcus Mariota instead takes the field. But I do think it is fair to not expect Hurts to be 100% which is bad news for an offense that has only scored 32 combined points in their last two games. The Eagles have gone through a gauntlet of a schedule that started at home against Dallas before playing at Kansas City, going home for Buffalo and San Francisco before traveling to Dallas last week. While some observers think this is their “get-right” game, I do not consider playing in Seattle for a prime-time game against a Seahawks team playing for their playoff lives to be an easy assignment. Philly has their two games with the New York Giants coming up with Arizona sandwiched in the middle — those are the “get-right” opportunities. The Eagles have been outscored by -43 combined points in their last two games. And while I still consider them a legitimate threat to return to win the NFC and return to the Super Bowl, their ten victories are accompanied by historic numbers of underachievement. Since 2000, there have been 107 teams to win at least 10 games after the first 14 weeks of the season — and Philadelphia ranks 104th of those 107 teams with just a +21 net point differential. The Eagles defense is simply getting pounded. They have allowed 156 rushing Yards-Per-Game in their last four contests. Their weak secondary is giving up 260 passing YPG. Opponents are converting on 48.1% of their third down opportunities — and the Eagles' sack rate of 6.3% on opponent third down pass plays is last in the league. They are also allowing their opponents to score touchdowns on 70% of their trips inside the Red Zone. Resiliency has not been a feature for head coach Nick Sirianni’s team lately as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss to an NFC East rival. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. Additionally, the Eagles have scored only six points in the first half of their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than seven points in the first half in two straight contests. Moving forward, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning percentage in the 40-49% range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the final four weeks of the season. Seattle is desperate for a victory tonight to keep them on pace with the NFC logjam for the three wildcard slots with Minnesota, the LA Rams, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay all at 7-7 (with the Saints or Buccaneers likely to win the NFC South). Lock did not play badly against the stout 49ers defense last week — while he did throw two interceptions in a losing effort, he completed 22 of 31 passes for 269 yards with two touchdown passes. He has great wide receivers to help him out — especially D.K. Metcalf who has been outstanding lately. Running back Kemba Walker returned to action last week — and he should be closer to full health tonight with another week (and a day) to rest up for this showdown. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 27 games after losing two games in a row under head coach Pete Carroll — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after losing two in a row. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in all 6 of their games under Carroll after losing three or more games in a row (including last week). And while Seattle has allowed 28 or more points in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 20 of their 27 games in the Carroll era after allowing 24 or more points in two straight games including 8 of these last 9 circumstances. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games as an underdog. And while the Eagles are allowing 353.9 total YPG, Seattle has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against teams allowing 350 or more YPG.

FINAL TAKE: There are some fascinating historical numbers behind this game. Carroll’s teams have an 18-6 straight-up record against opponents who have lost two games in a row by 20 or more points. And then there is the Seahawks' remarkable record in prime-time games. Seattle leads the NFL with a 29-12 all-time record on Monday Night Football. Since 2010, Seattle has a 34-16-1 straight up record in prime time with a 13-4 record on Monday Night Football. It will be rockin’ at Lumen Field tonight in what is one of the true home-field advantages in the NFL. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Year with the Seattle Seahawks (328) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (327). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (312) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (311). THE SITUATION: Detroit (9-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 28-13 upset loss at Chicago as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Denver (7-6) has won six of their last seven contests after their 24-7 upset win in Los Angeles against the Chargers on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS MINUS THE POINTS: I have been skeptical of the enormous hype surrounding this Detroit team ever since they played the role of the spoiler in beating Green Bay in Lambeau Field to ruin their postseason aspirations in the final game of the regular season last year — and as many supporters jump off their bandwagon now after a difficult stretch, this looks like a great opportunity to back them as they return home to Ford Field after a two-game road trip. As it is, the Lions have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss on the road by 14 or more points. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a point spread loss. Turnovers have been one of the big issues as Detroit has 13 turnovers in their last six games while posting a -8 net turnover margin during that span. A -3 net turnover margin last week played a big role in their loss to the Bears — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a game where they endured a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Lions return home having covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a two-game road trip. Detroit is outscoring their guests by +6.0 Points-Per-Game and outgaining them by +107.1 net Yards-Per-Game with them generating 406.8 YPG resulting in 28.7 PPG. And the Lions' defense has been much better at home where they allowing only 297.7 YPG. Quarterback Jared Goff plays at his best when at home in the controlled temperature of an indoor stadium — he is completing  69.8% of his passes with a QBR of 99.6 at home as compared to his 64.4% completion percentage and QBR of 90.8 when on the road this season. Detroit has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 home games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored by up to seven points. Hosting the Broncos who have forced 17 turnovers in their last six games offers head coach Dan Campbell the opportunity to stress the importance of protecting the football. Injuries have played a role in the Lions' subpar play recently — but they get perhaps the best center in the league back with Frank Ragnow returning from injury. The Lions should get back to running the football against this suspect Broncos run defense that is allowing 5.5 Yards-Per-Carry and 162 rushing YPG when on the road this season. And even if one wants to throw out their disaster in Miami where they lost by a 70-20 score while giving up 350 rushing yards, Denver still allowed 192 rushing yards to Buffalo and 175 to Minnesota — and now they play a Detroit team that ranks fifth in the NFL by averaging 137.5 rushing YPG. The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after an upset win by ten or more points as an underdog on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 14 or more points. And in their last 9 games after winning two of their last three games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of those contests. If head coach Sean Payton has “fixed” Russell Wilson, it has been by having him run the Taysom Hill offense from his Saints-coaching days. While Wilson had 33 pass attempts in their easy win against the Chargers, that game was just the second time in his last eight games that he had more than 29 passes. The Broncos have scored more than 24 points only once in their last nine games despite their defense forcing turnovers at a very high rate. They have generated only 299.3 total YPG in their last three games — and they average just 295.8 total YPG when playing on the road. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog of seven points or less.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit plays their first game at home since embarrassing themselves in front of their home fans against Chicago on Thanksgiving — and it should be an electric atmosphere for this Saturday night prime-time game on national television. The Lions have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in December. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Detroit Lions (312) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Las Vegas Raiders (302) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (301). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (5-8) has lost three games in a row after their 3-0 loss at home to Minnesota as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles (5-8) has lost four of their last five games after their 24-7 upset loss at home to Denver as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS MINUS THE POINTS: While both of these teams are dealing with a host of injuries, the internal cohesion of these two squads is quite different. For Las Vegas, the Wicked Witch of the West, Josh McDaniels, has already been fired — so the locker room is happy. The players like interim head coach Antonio Pierce — and the former New York Giants star linebacker remains a candidate to be named the head coach moving forward. The team has consistently played hard for him since he took over — and they have taken the field for him despite being on the injured list during the week. So while defensive end Maxx Crosby and wide receiver Davante Adams are listed as questionable, I expect both to play. Crosby did not practice this week which is not unusual on a short week. Adams came down with an illness yesterday but he should be able to play through it 36 hours later. Crosby and Adams will be the best two players on the field if they play tonight — and that is a consideration I undervalued earlier this year when the Raiders hosted Green Bay. Superstars matter — especially in games between two mediocre teams. Running back Josh Jacobs' questionable status is more in doubt with a quad — but if he plays, Pierce says it will be the “Josh Jacobs Show” and we should be in great shape. Even if he doesn’t, home-field advantage should help pave the way for this team. Las Vegas has been solid at home with a 4-3 record along with a +2.0 net Points-Per-Game margin and a +6.7 net Yards-Per-Game mark. The Raiders' defense has been stout when playing at Allegiant Stadium where they are holding their opponents to 301.4 YPG which is resulting in just 15.0 PPG. Las Vegas has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games when favored by up to three points. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after losing three games in a row. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than three points in their last game. The expectation is that Pierce will turn back to Aidan O’Connell at quarterback after not committing to a starter after the offense failed to score a point. As long as it is not Brian Hoyer, the Raiders offense should rebound with a better effort. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not scoring more than three points in the first half of their last game. The story of Los Angeles is much more dire. Their season is done after the season-ending right finger injury to quarterback Justin Herbert last week. Backup quarterback Easton Stick makes his first career start tonight despite being in the league for five seasons. Head coach Brandon Staley will almost certainly be fired at the end of the season (although I thought he was a goner last year at this time). First-year offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is also likely to be let go — if not, management would have elevated him to be the interim head coach to give him a test run as the potential next head coach. Given comments to the press like from veteran Austin Ekeler, the team does not particularly like Staley with his reckless fourth down decisions and failure to improve the defense. In hindsight, his resume from being the defensive coordinator during the Los Angeles Rams Super Bowl run seems to be thanks to the presence of Aaron Donald. I’m skeptical regarding the kind of effort the Chargers’ players are going to provide tonight for their lame-duck coaches. Injuries leave the remaining talent thin. Wide receiver Keenan Allen is out tonight — and the offense was already missing wide receiver Mike Williams to his season-ending injury. Wide receiver Joshua Palmer returns from injury — but he is not a number one option and rookie Quentin Johnston has been a bust with his inability to run NFL routes or comprehend the playbook. The season-ending injury to center Corey Linsley earlier this year was a big blow to the offense. And on the other side of the ball, defensive stalwart Nick Bosa is out tonight with a sprained foot. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams from the AFC. Furthermore, the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after the first month of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread 6 of their last 9 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Raiders have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* AFC West Game of the Year with the Las Vegas Raiders (302) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (128) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (127). THE SITUATION: Dallas (9-3) has won four games in a row after their 41-35 victory against Seattle as a 9.5-point favorite back on November 30th. Philadelphia (10-2) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 42-19 loss to San Francisco as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: This is the Dallas Super Bowl as they both host their arch-rivals and have the opportunity to post their first victory against a team with a winning record this season. Head coach Mike McCarthy missing time this week after an emergency appendectomy is not ideal — but the team had extra days to rest and prepare for this rematch from just last month so I don’t consider those circumstances substantial enough to change the play. The Cowboys' offense has been on another level since their bye week when McCarthy decided to be more aggressive in the passing game. Dak Prescott is playing as well as he has in his entire career — he leads the NFL with 26 touchdown passes. Wide receiver Brandin Cooks has stepped up as a dangerous second option to CeeDee Lamb in the passing game. Left tackle Tyron Smith is playing at a very high level again. Dallas is scoring 42.0 Points-Per-Game in their last four games. The Cowboys' defense has something to prove after allowing the Seahawks to generate 6.44 Yards-Per-Play which resulted in 406 total yards — but they have covered the point spread in 10 straight games after allowing 400 or more yards in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 13 straight games after allowing their last opponent to generate 6.0 or more YPP. Additionally, Dallas has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after allowing 30 or more points. The Cowboys stay at home where they have won 14 of their last 15 games going back to last season. They are generating 438.0 total Yards-Per-Game at home which is resulting in 41.0 PPG this season — and they are outscoring their guests by +24.2 net PPG with their defense only allowing 15.8 PPG. Dallas has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games when favored by up to seven points. I don’t love fading a team that just got beat by 23 points — but this looks like a lull period for the Eagles who are in a terrible situational spot. Teams tend to struggle after playing the physical 49ers in the previous week — and this has been a  brutal stretch of games for Philadelphia having previously played Buffalo, Kansas City, and the Cowboys in their first meeting this season. Philly surviving this stretch with a 3-2 mark was considered a very acceptable result before the season started — and they have already clinched that accomplishment even with a loss tonight. The Eagles have been getting by with smoke and mirrors as well — they have been outgained in yardage in five straight contests. Furthermore, their net point differential mark of +58 points is a historically low number — since 2008, that mark ranks 56 of the 58 NFL teams that had won at least ten games after Week 13. Philly’s linebackers have been a weak link — and the defense is not generating enough pass rush. Since Week Eight, the Eagles rank 28th in the NFL with a sack rate of 4.4% — and their 10 sacks during that span that ranks 27th in the league. Their sack rate of 5.3% on third down this season ranks 30th in the NFL. Philadelphia’s pass defense ranks second-to-last in the league by allowing 260 YPG — and they rank 31st in the league in touchdown passes allowed. In their last four games, they are allowing 29.0 PPG. The Eagles have not been resilient lately as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss at home. They have only scored six and seven points in the first half of their last two games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not scoring more than seven points in the first half in two straight games. They had covered the point spread in three straight games before their blowout loss to the 49ers — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games.

FINAL TAKE: Prescott thrives against divisional rivals — he has a 30-8 straight-up record in starts against the NFC East with 72 touchdown passes and only 20 interceptions while posting a Passer Rating of 101. Against the Eagles at home at A&T Stadium, Prescott has a 5-1 career record with 12 touchdown passes. In the their 28-23 loss at Philadelphia on November 5th, Dallas got inside the Eagles’ territory in their final four possessions but only came away with nine points due to some unusual circumstances. Dallas has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when favored — and Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games as an underdog. 25* NFC East Game of the Year with the Dallas Cowboys (128) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (127). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (272) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (271). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-6) has lost two games in a row after their 23-20 upset loss to Green Bay as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Baltimore (8-3) has won five of their last six games after their 34-20 win against Cincinnati as a 4-point favorite on November 16th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: We are probably destined to experience moments of infuriation tonight by having a rooting interest in head coach Brandon Staley’s game management tonight. But we are betting numbers rather than endorsing head coaches — and we do get to cheer Justin Herbert in his heroic efforts to overcome his coaching. Five of the Chargers’ six losses have been by three points or less. They have suffered three upset losses this season — but they have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games as an underdog. They will play with desperation tonight with their season on the line — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss on the road. Furthermore, while they have lost and failed to cover the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing two or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in two or more games in a row. Los Angeles does return home to SoFi where they are scoring a healthy 28.6 Points-Per-Game. Baltimore is riding high right now —  but they did benefit from a scheduling quirk that had them play their last three games at home. The Ravens tend to get overvalued by the betting public in moments like this. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win against an AFC North rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a double-digit victory. They have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after winning three of their last four games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Baltimore offense is clicking after generating 405 yards against the Bengals last week. The Ravens have scored 31 or more points in five straight games — and they have averaged 408.7 Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests. But Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 25 or more points in two or more games in a row. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after gaining 400 or more yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after averaging 400 or more YPG in their last three games. Lamar Jackson has been great this season — but now he has to run the offense without his favorite target Mark Andrews given the ankle injury he suffered last week.

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 road games when favored. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (272) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (271). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (473) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (474). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-4) has won five games in a row after their 27-19 victory as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Denver (4-5) has won three games in a row after their 24-22 upset win at Buffalo as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: The Broncos followed up their upset victory against Kansas City by stunning the Bills on Monday Night Football despite getting outgained by -69 net yards in that game. The formula for success for head coach Sean Payton has been running the football, burning time off the clock with an opportunistic defense that has forced nine turnovers in their last four games. The Denver defense is playing better when not being asked to be on the field as long — they rank ninth in Defensive DVOA since Week Six according to the metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN). But the Vikings’ defense ranks sixth in Defensive DVOA over that span — more on that group below. Payton is being credited for “fixing” Russell Wilson who “was never, ever washed” — the problem was last year’s head coach Nathaniel Hackett (who apparently forced-fed him a box of donuts every morning while the former Seattle quarterback was giving him the playbook that would finally “Let Russ Cook”). Sarcasm aside, credit goes to Payton for getting this team to play much better than their 50-point loss to Miami earlier this season. Let’s leave it as simply ironic that the recipe to get Russ Cooking again came from the old Seahawks playbook under the much-maligned offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer who was accused of holding Wilson back. A big question in the offseason was whether Payton could use his old blueprints that were successful with his quarterback in New Orleans — but who would have guessed that those game plans were initially designed for Taysom Hill rather than Drew Brees? And that’s my point: Wilson is playing better because he is not being asked to do much. He has less than 30 pass attempts in four straight games. The last time Wilson did not pass the ball at least 30 times was early in the 2018-19 campaign after he endured six sacks in the opening two games of the season (and it was later in the year when the “Let Russ Cook” mantra was born criticizing Schottenheimer for not drawing up more passing plays). While Wilson’s touchdown-to-interception ratio is great, that’s not why Denver gave him $161 million in guaranteed money along with a $500K signing bonus. Even with the fewer dropbacks, Wilson has still been sacked at least four times in four of his last five games. The Broncos have run the ball 40 and 38 times in each of the last two weeks. But what happens if that “Plan A” fails? The Vikings rank fifth in the NFL by holding their opponents to 3.7 rushing Yards-Per-Carry — and their last three opponents have averaged only 83 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Denver has lost all four games this season when Wilson is asked to pass the ball more than 29 times. Even during this three-game winning streak, Denver is generating only 293.0 total YPG — and they have been getting outgained by -32.0 net YPG in those contests. At home, the Broncos are averaging only 309.2 YPG while getting outgained by -23.2 net YPG. The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset victory in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Denver has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 home games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when favorited by up to three points. Minnesota's improved play starts with their defense that just held the Saints to 280 total yards. They have held four of their last five opponents to under 20 points — and they rank eighth in Defensive DVOA for the entire season. Quarterback Josh Dobbs has been productive with his arm and his legs while not making mistakes. He has completed 67.2% of his passes in his two starts for the Vikings for 426 passing yards while adding another 110 rushing yards. For the season including his time with Arizona, he has 11 touchdown passes and five interceptions (none with Minnesota). He will not have Justin Jefferson to throw to just yet for this game — but rookie Jordan Addison has been a breakout star in his absence and tight end T.J. Hockensen has been reliable. Dobbs’ threat with his legs has unlocked their running game as they have generated 133.5 rushing YPG in his two games while running the ball 33 times in both games. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning three or more games in a row. They held the Saints to only 65 rushing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. They have won four of their five games on the road this season while outscoring their opponents by +5.0 PPG and holding their home hosts to 19.6 PPG. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in November.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Minnesota Vikings (473) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (472) minus the points versus the New York Jets (471). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (5-5) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-22 upset loss against Denver as a 7.5-point favorite on Monday. New York (4-5) has lost two games in a row after their 16-12 upset loss at Las Vegas as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: Buffalo outgained the Broncos by +69 net yards despite having their offense on the field for just 22:39 minutes of that game. Once again, turnovers did the Bills in with Josh Allen throwing two interceptions with the team spotting Denver a -3 net turnover margin. Buffalo has now lost the turnover battle in five straight games — and it is a leading reason why the Bills have failed to cover the point spread in six straight contests. Feeling something had to be done to change the temperature inside the club, head coach Sean McDermott fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey and replaced him with former Joe Burrow guru at LSU   Joe Brady. The production of the offense remains good — Buffalo ranks second in the NFL in Success Rate, fourth in Expected Points Added per play, and third in 3rd Down Efficiency. The Bills' fortunes will change when they stop making so many mistakes with the football. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after enduring a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing the turnover battle in four or more games in a row. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games after failing to cover the point spread in three or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or more games in a row. And in their last 11 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of those contests. The Bills did rush for 192 yards last week which was an encouraging long-term sign for them moving forward — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after rushing for 175 or more yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 home games coming off playing on Monday Night Football. Now they play a Jets team that has forced only two turnovers in their last three games. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after an upset loss as a road favorite. The Jets offense is simply too limited with Zach Wilson under center with him still making rookie mistakes. They have not scored a touchdown in 11 straight quarters. Wilson has only one touchdown pass in his last 189 throws over the last five games. His Passer Rating of 74 this season is last in the NFL for starting quarterbacks. Granted, a banged-up offensive line that was going to be a problem for this team even when at full strength has compounded the matter. And now wide receiver Garrett Wilson is listed as questionable with an elbow injury. The Jets rank 30th in the NFL by scoring just 16.0 Points-Per-Game — and they are last in the league with only eight offensive touchdowns, last with a 25.0% 3rd Down Rate, and last with a 22.7% Red Zone Touchdown Rate. Wilson has attempted 40 and 49 passes in the last two weeks which is far from ideal — and New York has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games after playing two games in a row where they attempted 40 or more passes. They have played four straight Unders — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after playing two or more Unders in a row. Furthermore, the Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games played on turf. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against AFC East rivals.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo will have the additional motivation to avenge their 22-16 upset loss in New York against the Jets in the opening week of the season on September 11th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from a loss by seven points or less. The Bills have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record in the second half of the season. 25* AFC East Game of the Month with the Buffalo Bills (472) minus the points versus the New York Jets (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (266) minus the points versus the Denver Broncos (265). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (5-4) lost for the second time in their last three games after a 24-18 loss at Cincinnati as a 1.5-point underdog last Sunday. Denver (3-5) has won two games in a row with their 24-9 upset win against Kansas City as a 7-point underdog back on October 29th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: The “sharps” are on the Broncos tonight while the public is backing the Bills. It is interesting that Buffalo is laying about a touchdown despite seeing their last five games all decided by six points or less. The thing about the “sharps” is that they are wrong lots of times — just the public is. I suspect this is a “get right” game for a Bills team under sharp scrutiny right now. The Bills were 6-3 at this point of the season last year before they rattled off seven straight victories. The conventional wisdom of the very smart sports people is that Buffalo’s offense is faltering — but the numbers tell a different story. Their Success Rate is up from 47.5% last year to 47.8% this season — and their Expected Points Per Drive from 0.47 last season has risen to 0.66 EPA/Drive this year. The DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN) rank them as the second-best offense in the league. The Bills are not meeting point spread expectations as they have failed to cover the point spread in five straight games. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 26 of their last 36 games after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread in four straight games. Turnovers are hurting this team — and Josh Allen has been too loose with the football trying to force big plays. After their -2 net turnover margin last week, they have lost the turnover battle in four straight contests. But the Bills have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after posting a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after losing the turnover battle in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing the turnover battle in four straight games. Furthermore, Buffalo has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss. They return home to Highmark Stadium where they are 4-0 while scoring 31.0 Points-Per-Game while outscoring their opponents by +16.7 PPG and outgaining their guests by +84.0 net Yards-Per-Game. Denver returns to the field after benefiting from Patrick Mahomes playing a rare bad game while being under the weather — they enjoyed a +4 net turnover margin after forcing five Chiefs turnovers. But the Broncos only gained 240 yards in that game despite their offense being on the field for 33:47 minutes. They had not scored more than 21 points in three straight games and four of their last five before that contest. But Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset victory against an AFC West rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after an upset win by 14 or more points. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 14 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning two of their last three games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a game where they posted a +2 or better net turnover margin. They go back on the road where they are only generating 290.3 total YPG which is resulting in just 19.7 PPG. Their defense is giving up 528.7 total YPG on the road which is resulting in their home hoss generating 39.0 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last road games as an underdog getting up to seven points. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Buffalo Bills (266) minus the points versus the Denver (265). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (258) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (257). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-4) has won two games in a row after their 27-6 win in New York against the Jets as a 3-point favorite on Monday. Detroit (6-2) has won five of their last six games after their 26-14 win at home against Las Vegas as a 7-point favorite back on October 30th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Lions have emerged as the darlings of the NFL this season — and bettors certainly adore them after starting the season with a 6-2 ATS mark after closing out last season on a 9-1 ATS run. Time for my weekly reminder that we bet numbers rather than teams. I don’t think the Lions have proven enough to be treated as road favorites — traveling out west, mind you — against AFC playoff teams. Yet Detroit is a popular choice for betters even in this spot. The biggest game the Lions have played in the Dan Campbell era was not their opening game of the season in Kansas City (which they pulled the upset, of course) — it was their lone point spread loss in the second half of the season last year when they got beat at Carolina as a 1.5 road favorite on December 24th by a 37-23 score against a Panthers team with Steve Wilks serving as an interim head coach. The Lions are taking care of business now after their statement win against the Chiefs (playing without Travis Kelce) — but they have benefited from some soft competition. Their five victories against Atlanta, Green Bay, Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Las Vegas represent five teams with losing records that combine for a 15-28 mark. Their lone loss during their last six games was their 38-6 blowout loss at Baltimore that has somehow just gotten excused away as “everyone knows that NFC teams can’t beat Lamar Jackson the first time they play him” — as if the Ravens average margin of victory in that 18-1 mark against NFC with Lamar is 20 Points-Per-Game or something. Can we just slow our roll a bit before we crown Detroit as champions? They have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games on the road after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They did hold the Raiders to just 157 total yards in the game where the Las Vegas locker room coup against Josh McDaniels came to fruition — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 200 total yards in their last game. Jared Goff is playing great — but he remains much more effective when playing at home where he has a 106.5 QBR along with a 72.2% completion percentage, an 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt average with eight touchdown passes, and three interceptions. Those numbers dip when on the road this season where he has an 88.0 QBR with a 65.0% completion percentage, a 6.9 YPA, four touchdown passes, and two interceptions. The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 44 road games when favored by up to seven points. I am not sold at all on this Los Angeles team under head coach Brandon Staley — but they made the playoffs last year and will be in the mix to return to the postseason again this year as long as Justin Herbert is still under center. The encouraging aspect of this team is the improved play of their defense, albeit against lesser competition. They registered eight sacks last week against the Jets while posting a +3 net turnover margin. They are tied for first in the NFL with a +9 net turnover margin. They have held four of their last five opponents to 20 points or less with the lone exception being Kansas City. These are good signs for a defense that boasts Nick Bosa, Khalil Mack, and Derwin James. The Chargers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by 10 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 14 or more points. They have only registered three wins by double-digits on the road in the last three seasons — and they covered the point spread in all 3 games after that accomplishment. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Their improved defense — and not getting into shootouts — is a more reliable formula for success for them. Los Angeles has played five straight Unders — and they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after playing two or more Unders in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 7 straight games after playing three or more Unders in a row and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after playing four or more Unders in a row.

FINAL TAKE: Three of the Chargers' four losses have been decided by three points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games as an underdog. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (258) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (257). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (310) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (309). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (4-3) had their two-game winning streak snapped after their 20-10 loss to Jacksonville as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Tennessee (3-4) ended their two-game losing streak with their 28-23 upset victory at home against Atlanta as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett was knocked out of the game last week with a rib injury — but he is off the injury report and plans to play tonight. Even if he cannot play the entire game, Mitch Trubisky is a solid backup — he completed 10 of 16 passes for 73 yards in relief last week against the Jags. The Steelers offense has been maligned all season for its direction under offensive coordinator Matt Canada. Admittedly, Canada seems reluctant to take the training wheels off this offense like using wide receivers in a motion to attempt to make things more difficult on opposing defenses. Neither Pickett nor Trubisky had the authority to audible at the line of scrimmage last season — despite both having experience changing plays in their previous stops. I am not going to defend Canada — but the Steelers getting back wide receiver Dionte Johnson from injury last week really helps since it gives them a second viable target alongside George Pickens. Johnson was targeted 14 times last week — he had eight catches for 85 receiving yards. Pittsburgh has the opportunity to find success in their ground game against this Titans defense that has allowed at least 139 rushing yards in three straight games. Tennessee is allowing 157.3 rushing Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests. On a short week, the Steelers should play well tonight when considering they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 32 of their last 49 home games after a loss by ten or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last contest — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home after failing to score more than 14 points in their last contest. The Steelers' defense keeps them competitive — they rank as the ninth-best defensive unit in the NFL according to the Defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. In their last three games, they have held their opponents to only 15.7 Points-Per-Game. With a healthy T.J. Watt on the field, the Steelers have a 12-5 straight-up record in those last 17 games. Now Watt and company face a rookie quarterback in his second career game in Tennessee’s Will Levis. The former Kentucky quarterback played well against a Falcons defense that seemed unprepared for his strong arm — he completed 19 of 29 passes for 238 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions. DeAndre Hopkins caught three of those touchdown passes but he is dealing with a toe injury that may limit his effectiveness tonight. The Titans go back on the road where they are winless in their four games this season while getting outscored by -10.0 PPG and getting outgained by -130.3 net Yards-Per-Game. Tennessee only manages to generate 240.0 YPG on the road which is resulting in just 12.5 PPG. The Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 63 games on the road after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. They have failed to cover the point spread in all three of the games on the road in head coach Mike Vrabel’s tenure when the Total was set in the 35.5-38 point range. The Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams from the AFC North. And while the Steelers are only averaging 271.7 total YPG this season, Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams not averaging more than 285 YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (310) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (309). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (270) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (269). THE SITUATION: Seattle (4-2) has won four of their last five games after their 20-10 win at home against Arizona as a 10-point favorite last Sunday. Cleveland (4-2) has won two games in a row with their 39-38 victory at Indianapolis as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: The Seattle defense has stepped up since the return of Jamal Adams from injury which has allowed them to play a big nickel scheme with three safeties on the field. They have only allowed 30 combined points in their last three games with their opponents averaging just 237.0 rushing Yards-Per-Game. The Seahawks have not allowed more than 168 passing yards in their last three games — and none of their last three opponents have totaled more than the 249 yards that the Cardinals managed last week. Seattle’s run defense has vastly improved as well from last season when they allowed 150.2 rushing YPG and ranked 30th in the league. This season, they are holding their opponents to just 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry which is resulting in only 87 YPG on the ground. This is a very good sign for a Pete Carroll-coached team as the Seahawks have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in three straight games. Seattle has lost the turnover battle in the last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 58 games after posting a -1 or worse turnover margin in two straight games. The Seahawks stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 38 home games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Cleveland got outgained by -140 net yards last week to the Colts used a fumble recovery in the end zone to overcome that production deficit to pull out that game. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a narrow win by three points or less. And while they enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin. Gardner Minshew and the Indianapolis offense exposed the Cleveland defense by generating 456 yards last week. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 400 or more yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after giving up 450 or more yards in that contest. After an outstanding start to the season, the Cleveland defense has taken a step back as they have allowed 27.7 Points-Per-Game in their last three contests. I do worry about Seattle quarterback Geno Smith throwing against the Browns’ man coverage — he performs better against zone schemes. That said, wider receiver Tyler Lockett is expected to play this afternoon — and there have not been many games this season where DK. Metcalf, rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Lockett have all been healthy and on the field together this season. Running back Kenneth Walker III is off the injury report as well after not practicing for most of the week — and he should have success against a faltering Browns’ run defense that has allowed their last three opponents to average 136 rushing YPG on 4.2 YPC. And then there is Cleveland having to rely on P.J. Walker under center given the lingering injury issues to Deshaun Watson. Walker only completed 15 of 32 passes for 178 yards with an interception last week. He has not thrown a touchdown pass in his last four appearances going back to last season. In his two games this year, he is completing only 50% of his passes while averaging a mere 5.6 Yards-Per-Attempt — and he has thrown three interceptions in 66 throws. He has a QBR of 48.2 this year. He leads a Browns team that has failed to cover the point spread in 39 of their last 59 road games from Week Five to Week Nine.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games in October — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams from the AFC. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (270) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (472) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (471). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (5-1) saw their five-game winning streak snapped in a 20-14 upset loss in New York against the Jets last Sunday. Miami (5-1) has won two games in a row with their 41-21 victory against Carolina as a 14-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia held the Jets to just 244 total yards — and they outgained them by +104 net yards. But a -4 net turnover margin did the Eagles in. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after suffering a -4 or worse net turnover margin last week. Now the Eagles return home where quarterback Jalen Hurts has won 12 of his last 13 starts with 32 touchdown passes to just six interceptions — and he posted a 102.8 Passer Rating in those last 13 starts at home. Much has been said about the Philly offense being out of sync. While I do think the transition from previous offensive coordinator Shane Steichen, who took the head coaching job with Indianapolis, to new OC Brian Johnson explains why they are not in full-playoff mode from last season, this offense has still been effective. The Offensive DVOA numbers by the Football Outsiders rank this unit as the seventh most efficient in the league. They have scored 25 or more points in four of their six games while putting up 34 points twice. For some context, the Eagles scored more than 24 points just three times in their first six games last season — and only one of those six games saw them score more than 29 points. The signing of veteran wide receiver Julio Jones will help since he gives Hurts a pair of reliable hands as a third wide receiver. And while right tackle Lane Johnson was on the injury report earlier in the week, he is expected to play tonight. Hurts has thrown as many interceptions already this season as he did all of last year — but playing at home should help settle him down. By the way, some of this rise in interceptions is simply from Hurts being asked to throw the ball more early on. His 213 pass attempts are 29 more than his number after six games last year — almost five more pass attempts per game. Lincoln Financial Field will be rocking tonight — Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when favored and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games when favored by seven points or less. Miami comes off a cushy two-game home stand against the New York Giants and Carolina who they beat by 15 and 21 points respectively. But the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning two games in a row by 14 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning two games in a row at home by double-digits. And while their dynamic offense scored 31 and 42 points in those two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after scoring 30 or more points in two straight games. Miami has taken full advantage of their easy early schedule — their five victories were against teams who began the day with a combined 5-24 record. They are allowing opposing quarterbacks to post a 99 Passer Rating. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Establishing a pass rush on Tua Tagovailoa to make him uncomfortable is essential — the Dolphins have a 3-6 record when he is sacked three or more times while having a 1-4 record when he is sacked at least four times. Philly ranks seventh in the NFL by averaging 3.3 sacks per game.

FINAL TAKE: The Dolphins' lone loss this season was in the northeast to begin the month where Buffalo beat them by a 48-20 score. The temperature is expected to be in the 40s tonight with winds in the 15 miles per hour range which will impact Tagovailoa’s deep shots. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games in Weeks Five through Nine. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Philadelphia Eagles (472) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (451) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (452). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (3-3) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-16 upset loss at home to Washington as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Tampa Bay (3-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 20-6 loss at home to Detroit as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: Atlanta dominated the Commanders in terms of yardage last week — they outgained them by +209 net yards with the Falcons generating 402 yards while allowing just 193 yards. A -3 net turnover margin did them in. Atlanta has lost the turnover battle by more than one turnover in three straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after posting a -2 or worse turnover margin in two straight games and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after losing the turnover in three straight games. The Falcons have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing three of their last four games. Quarterback Desmond Ridder has an 0-4 record in his NFL career in his four starts on the road — and he is overseeing an offense that is scoring just 10 Points-Per-Game in those contests. And yet Atlanta is a road underdog getting less than a field goal in many spots — a very fishy line given the Ridder’s road struggles. For the record, Ridder did complete 22 of 33 passes in a start on the road against Baltimore last season — so his road issues are probably being overplayed a bit. Atlanta is 7-7 ATS in their 14 road games as an underdog (not a losing trend) — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games as an underdog getting up to three points. The Falcons are outgaining their opponents by +52.8 net Yards-Per-Game. Head coach Arthur Smith’s emphasis on running the football has helped his defense play surprisingly well. Atlanta ranks fourth in the NFL by allowing only 278.2 total YPG — and they are fourth in the league by holding their opponents to 179 Passing YPG. They hold their opponents to a 31% conversion rate on third down, ranking second in the NFL — and they rank third in pressure rate on passing down despite blitzing only 22.7% of the time which means they are getting to the quarterback without sacrificing a pass defender. Tampa Bay only gained 251 total yards in their loss to the Lions last week. Despite their winning record, they are getting outgained by -39.4 net YPG. They have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit loss. The Buccaneers have played three straight Unders — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after playing an Under in their last game while failing to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after playing two straight Unders. Tampa Bay cannot run the ball — they only generate 78.8 rushing YPG which ranks 29th in the league. The season-ending injury to center Ryan Jensen really hurt this team — and their 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry average is tied for last in the NFL. Baker Mayfield is being asked to bail this team out with his arm on third down — and his success on the money down this season is not sustainable as his game against Detroit demonstrated. Tampa Bay gained only 46 rushing yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for more than 50 yards. And while their run defense has been very good again under head coach Todd Bowles, opposing quarterbacks are completing 65.3 of their passes against them — and they rank 26th in the league by allowing 247 passing YPG. They also rank 31st in the NFL by allowing their opponents to convert on 49% of their third downs. The Bucs stay home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored by up to three points.   

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after the first month of the season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFC South Game of the Month with the Atlanta Falcons (451) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (312) minus the point(s) versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (311). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (3-3) has lost three of their last four games after their 20-13 upset loss at Houston as a 2-point favor last Sunday. Jacksonville (4-2) has won three games in a row with their 37-20 win at home against Indianapolis as a 4-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINT(S): The Jaguars got outgained by -121 net yards last week — but three interceptions by the Colts’ Gardner Minshew helped them overcome that yardage deficit with a +3 net turnover margin. Jacksonville only gained 233 yards on offense — and now quarterback Trevor Lawrence is questionable with a knee injury. He is expected to play — but it will be even better for us if backup C.J. Beathard ends up the starter on a short week. Even if Lawrence does play, he will be limited — and his mobility in avoiding the pass rush has played an integral part during their current three-game winning streak. Despite their winning record, this team is getting outgained by -8.4 net Yards-Per-Game this season. The biggest question I had for this team in my offseason deep dive was if they were a team ready to take another big step to compete with the top teams in the AFC to make a Super Bowl — or will they be closer to the group that only outgained their opponents by +4.1 net YPG while spotting the Los Angeles Chargers a 27-0 halftime lead in the wildcard round of the playoffs before rallying for that 31-30 victory. All 11 starters return on defense from a unit that ranked 24th in the NFL by allowing 353.3 YPG. General manager Trent Balke neither signed a significant defensive player in free agency nor drafted a defensive player in the first three rounds of the NFL draft. It seemed as if the “plan” was to draw an inside straight where quarterback Trevor Lawrence takes another big lead in his second season working with head coach Doug Pederson, wide receiver Calvin Ridley does not miss a beat in his return to the field after playing only five games since 2021, the offensive line somehow hangs in there, and that linebackers Travon Walker, Josh Allen, and Devin Lloyd stop underachieving and begin developing into the defensive stars that the organization hoped they would as former first-round draft picks. Admittedly, Ridley has been great and the defense is playing better under defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell. But the offensive line remains an issue — and that unit will be without starting left tackle Walker Little with a knee injury and right guard Brandon Scherff is questionable with an ankle. Lawrence continues to develop — but he may not be able to continue to bail out his offensive line given that knee injury on a short week. Wide receiver Zay Jones and cornerback Tyson Campbell are also out for this game due to injury. As it is, Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games on the road after a double-digit victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after being outgained by their previous opponent by -100 or more yards. And while the Jaguars have only allowed 6 and 7 points in the first half of their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than seven points in the first half of their last two games. New Orleans outgained the Texans by +133 net yards by somehow found a way to get upset in that game. The Saints may have a .500 record but they have outscored their opponents by +2.2 PPG while outgaining their opponents by +34.2 net YPG. New Orleans should be playing better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset loss. And while they have only covered the point spread once this season, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. My biggest question for this team in the offseason was whether general manager Mickey Loomis was simply in denial regarding the impending salary cap disaster awaiting this organization — or was he shrewdly kicking the can continually down the road? The Saints are poised to be $61.7 million in the hole versus the cap next season — and Loomis has already allocated $253 million for 2025 for what are mostly older players. They were the oldest team in the NFL last year with an average age of 27.5. But with the NFC South wide open after Tom Brady’s retirement, Loomis addressed the quarterback problem by signing Derek Carr to a four-year deal with $100 million of his $150 million contract guaranteed. With the veteran at quarterback throwing to Chris Olave and a healthy Michael Thomas along with a defense that held their final ten opponents to 14.5 PPG, the Saints were seen as the favorites to win a division consisting of three rebuilding rivals. Over a quarter into the season, the New Orleans defense seems legit. They rank seventh in the NFL using the tempo-free Defensive DVOA metrics by Football Outsiders. They are holding their opponents to just 278.3 total YPG which is resulting in only 16.0 PPG. Carr has been pretty much the same quarterback he was for the Raiders — outstanding at times but also occasionally infuriating. He completed 32 of 50 passes for 353 yards last week while leading the New Orleans offense to 430 total yards. The Saints have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining 400 or more yards in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. With running back Alvin Kamara back and wide receiver Michael Thomas seemingly back in form to complement Chris Olive, the New Orleans offense still has nice potential — and Carr has been known to have big games on national television.

FINAL TAKE: The Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road as an underdog of up to seven points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month is with the New Orleans Saints (312) minus the point(s) versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (263) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (264). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (3-2) has won three of their last four games after their 23-16 upset win against Tennessee as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Jacksonville (3-2) has won two games in a row after completing their two-game sweep in London with a 25-20 upset win against Buffalo as a 5.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Jaguars return home as conquering heroes after their upset victory against the Bills — but one of the reasons we were on Jacksonville last week was the situational edge they enjoyed with that being their second week in London while Buffalo was still dealing with potential jet lag and getting accustomed to being in England. Now this Jags team becomes the first team to play an NFL game after two straight games played across the pond. While this is unprecedented, it is interesting to note that all 11 teams that returned to the US to play in a game without a bye the first week back all found themselves trailing to tied in the fourth quarter. If even these teams experienced a travel hangover, Jacksonville is likely to come out sluggish this afternoon. They controlled that game against the Bills by generating 29 first downs with their offense on the field for 38:12 minutes — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after being on offense for at least 34 minutes and gaining 24 or more first downs. They ran for 196 yards last week against Buffalo — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last contest. They only gave up seven points in the first half of both their games in London — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than seven points in the first half in two straight games. they return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 46 home games in October. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win against a fellow AFC South rival. Gardner Minshew stepped up in relief for an injured Anthony Richardson to complete 11 of 14 passes for 155 yards in leading the team to victory. At this point in his career, Minshew may be the best backup in the league. He is completing 68.7% of his passes this season — and he has not thrown an interception in his 83 attempts this year. He does not lack confidence — and he has running back Jonathan Taylor in the backfield again with his contract dispute settled. Taylor will probably split time again with Zack Moss who was outstanding last week by gaining 165 yards on the ground last week with two touchdowns. The Colts averaged 7.15 Yards-Per-Play last week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after generating 6.5 or more YPP in their last contest. This is a solid football team under rookie head coach Shane Steichen. They rank 13th in the NFL in Offensive DVOA and 16th in Defensive DVOA using the metrics from Football Outsiders — and those are surprising rankings for a team that finished 4-10-1 last year. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when getting 3.5 to 9.5 points as the dog.

FINAL TAKE: The Jaguars are many people’s sleeper team this season — so their victory against Buffalo confirms that prior belief for these folks. But after only outgaining their opponents by +4.1 net YPG last season, they are only outgaining their opponents this year by +14.2 YPG and outscoring them by +0.6 PPG, down from their +3.2 net PPG margin last year. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as a favorite laying 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when laying up to seven points. 25* AFC South Game of the Month with the Indianapolis Colts (263) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (475) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (476). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (2-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 34-20 loss at home to Detroit as a 2.5-point underdog back on September 28th for Thursday Night Football. Las Vegas (1-3) has lost three games in a row after their 24-17 loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 7-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS PLUS THE POINTS: Green Bay got embarrassed on national television — but with the extra few days to rest and prepare, expect a much better effort from them tonight. The Packers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss. And while they got outgained by -173 net yards with the Lions generating 401 yards against them, Green Bay has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing 400 or more yards in their last contest. My main question for this team in my deep dive on them in the offseason dealt with the possibility that the Packers would respond similarly as the Seattle Seahawks did last year once their long-time franchise quarterback was granted his trade request. The Seahawk players seemed happy to see Russell Wilson leave — and perhaps the Packer players were pleased to tell Aaron Rodgers to not let the door hit him as he left for New York. While head coach Matt LaFleur is on the hot seat in his fifth year with the team, he gets to fully implement his vision of the offense without catering to the whims of Rodgers. And with Jordan Love, he may have the type of player that Kyle Shanahan was hoping to unlock with Trey Lance: a point guard-styled quarterback who offers the additional weapon with his mobility. Love has struggled with his accuracy as he is completing only 56.1% of his passes — but his receivers have had too many drops. Second-year wide receiver Christian Watson was injured to begin the season — but he returned for the Lions game to score a touchdown and is ready to go tonight. Love does have eight touchdown passes to just three interceptions — and he is averaging 18.5 rushing yards per game with two touchdowns offering enough of a threat with his legs to keep defenses honest. The Packers will not have running back Aaron Jones tonight as he continues to recover from a hamstring injury — but getting to play this Raiders team may be just what the doctor ordered. Las Vegas is a mess on and off the field. On the field, the Raiders rank 31st in Offensive DVOA according to the metrics deployed by Football Outsiders while ranking 28th in Defensive DVOA. Off the field, the release of linebacker Chandler Jones for his personal issues is just the latest drama impacting this team. Second-year Josh McDaniels does not appear to have complete support in the locker room with veterans like wide receiver Davante Adams expressing his displeasure with the direction of the team. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has been cleared from the concussion protocol and will take the field tonight. But Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to an AFC West rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 49 games after a loss on the road to a divisional foe. The Chargers outrushed them by -79 yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after getting outrushed by -75 or more yards. Running back Josh Jacobs is averaging only 2.7 Yards-Per-Carry this season after generating 4.9 YPC during his 1653 rushing yards campaign last year. His decrease in production may not be all his fault as he is rushing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. The Raiders have one of the worst rosters in the league after years of disastrous drafts in the Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock era. Coming from the NFL Network to be a “yes” man for Gruden, Mayock drafted as if his only scouting was watching the 3:30 PM ET and prime-time college football games on national television on Saturdays after sleeping through the early game here in Vegas. Las Vegas is starting slow which is an indication of poorly designed early play scripts on offense. After trailing 13-7 against Pittsburgh two weeks ago on Sunday Night Football, they went into the locker room last week trailing the Chargers by a 24-7 score. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 60 games after trailing by 14 or more points at halftime of their last game including covering the spread in 4 of their last 5 games under those circumstances. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 43 of their last 65 games after failing to score more than seven points in the first half in two straight games. Las Vegas has not covered the point spread in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 36 of their last 54 home games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road as a dog. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games in expected close games with them listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when favored. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the Green Bay Packers (475) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (464) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (463). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (2-2) was on a two-game losing streak before their 30-7 upset loss at Houston as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Baltimore (3-1) comes off a 28-3 win at Cleveland as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh got embarrassed last week — and they are banged up with a bunch of injuries including quarterback Kenny Pickett who is likely to play with a knee brace. This is an endorsement of the Steelers’ head coach Mike Tomlin who reliably has his team ready to play in situations like this. In Pittsburgh’s circles, they were anxious about getting back late from a delayed flight after their Sunday night game in Las Vegas two weeks ago — and it cost them a practice day in pads in preparation for the game against the Texans. On a two-game winning streak off a win on Sunday Night Football, that may have contributed to their soft effort against the Texans. Tomlin made it clear they were back in pads for practice this week — especially in preparation for their game with the Ravens in what is the most physical rivalry in the league. Nothing like a game with Baltimore to clarify expectations. As it is, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games at home after an upset loss by double-digits. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by 14 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after a loss by 14 points or more points on the road. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a loss by 21 or more points including covering the point spread in those last five circumstances — and they have covered the points spread in 10 of their last 12 home games after a loss on the road by 21 or more points. Admittedly, the offense looks like a mess right now with offensive coordinator Matt Canada under intense scrutiny — but the Steelers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to score more than 14 points. And the defense has something to prove — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after allowing 30 or points while covering the point spread in 6 straight games at home after giving up 30 or more points. Remember that this team has a 10-4 record in their last 14 games with a healthy T.J. Watt who is locked and loaded for this game. Baltimore is just as injured as the Steelers are right now — but they are surviving their M*A*S*H unit adventures because they have enjoyed good fortune with opposing quarterbacks. After getting to play C.J. Stroud in his first professional start for Houston last month, they then got an injured Joe Burrow, backup Gardner Minshew (in a loss), and another rookie debut with the Browns having to turn to Dorian Thompson-Robinson last week. The Ravens have failed to cover the points spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win against an AFC North rival. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by 10 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 14 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning three of their last four games. And in their last 12 games against not allowing more than 14 points, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of those contests. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 34 road games when laying 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh plays Lamar Jackson tough — besides beating the Ravens in five of their last six games against them, they have held Jackson to just a 66 Passer Rating in his games against them. Eight of the last ten meetings between these teams have been decided by one scoring possession — and the Steelers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as an underdog. 25* AFC North Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (464) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (463). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (102) plus the point(s) versus the Detroit Lions (101). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (2-1) improved their record to 2-1 with an 18-17 upset win against New Orleans as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. Detroit (2-1) has the same record after their 20-6 win at home against Atlanta as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS PLUS THE POINT(S): Green Bay comes into this game with momentum after their win against the Saints — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset victory in their last game. The Packers have covered the point spread in all three of their games this season — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. And with that game finishing Under the Total, Green Bay has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The main question I had about this team coming into the season was whether they might respond similarly as the Seattle Seahawks did last year once their long-time franchise quarterback was granted his trade request. The Seahawk players seemed happy to see Russell Wilson leave — and perhaps the Packer players were pleased to tell Aaron Rodgers to not let the door hit him as he left for New York. While head coach Matt LaFleur is on the hot seat in his fifth year with the team, he gets to fully implement his vision of the offense without catering to the whims of Rodgers. And with Jordan Love, he may have the type of player that Kyle Shanahan was hoping to unlock with Trey Lance: a point guard-styled quarterback who offers the additional weapon with his mobility. Love demonstrated his poise by leading an 18-point comeback in the fourth quarter last week to steal that game against New Orleans. He has been a threat with his legs — he has rushed for 74 yards this season on 14 carries with a crucial touchdown last week. Those numbers are similar to Josh Allen’s 89 rushing yards on 12 carries and Deshaun Watson’s 83 yards on 15 carriers with both mobile QBs also having one touchdown. The Packers’ defense has eight former first-round draft picks — and they rank 10th in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA rankings so far this season. Green Bay stays at home where they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games against NFC opponents — and they have covered the points spread in 11 of their last 13 games as an underdog. LaFleur expects to get running back Aaron Jones back for this game which should help to get their running game going after not rushing for more than 95 yards in a game yet this season. The Packers have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in three straight games. Green Bay is still dealing with some other injuries with left tackle David Bahktiari, left guard Elgton Jenkins, and linebacker De’Vondae Campbell out. They have developed some nice depth on their offensive line with players like Zach Tom able to ease into the starting left tackle position after giving up only one sack in 489 snaps last season. The Lions are still the more banged-up team — starting right guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai is out along with offensive lineman Matt Nelson. Their defense is without defensive linemen James Houston and Josh Paschal along with cornerback C.J. Gardner-Johnson. Detroit held the Falcons to just 183 yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 200 rushing yards in their last game. And while the Lions have not allowed more than 95 rushing yards this season after holding Atlanta to 44 rushing yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games after not allowing more than 50 rushing yards in their last contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 road games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. The hype surrounding this team is enormous right now with them now having won 10 of their last 13 games — but remember that their most important contest during that stretch was in Week 15 last season when a victory on the road against Carolina would have given them the upper hand in controlling their playoff destiny. But they surrendered 570 total yards to the Panthers in a 37-23 loss that ultimately kept them out of the postseason. Admittedly, Jared Goff was very effective in the second half of the season once he stopped throwing interceptions. But Goff was at his best at home including high-profile losses on Thanksgiving to Buffalo and in a shootout (loss) in September to Philadelphia (before that team’s continued in-season improvement). At home at Ford Field last year, the Lions scored 33 Points-Per-Game with Goff averaging 274 passing Yards-Per-Game with 23 touchdown passes, only three interceptions, and a QBR of 110. But on the road, Detroit’s scoring dropped to 19 PPG with Goff averaging 245 passing YPG with a mere four touchdown passes, four interceptions, and a QBR of 87. So far this season, those disparate home/road splits have continued for Goff. He has averaged 283.0 passing YPG while completing 73.5% of his passes in his two home starts -- but in his one start on the road this season at Kansas City, those numbers dropped to 253 passing yards and a 62.9% completion percentage. The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 44 road games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 road games when favored by three points or less.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers certainly had this game circled after the Lions spoiled their opportunity to make the playoffs on the last Sunday night game of the regular season at Lambeau Field. Detroit upset them in both games last season — but Goff only completed 37 of his 60 passes (61.7%) for 361 yards in both games with the Lions averaging just 287.5 total YPG. The Packers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFC North Game of the Month with the Green Bay Packers (102) plus the point(s) versus the Detroit Lions (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (475) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (476). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (1-1) looks to build off their 26-22 upset win at home against Cleveland as a 2-point underdog on Monday. Las Vegas (1-1) comes off a 38-10 loss at Buffalo as a  7.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh may have gutted out the win against AFC North rival on Monday after their defense scored two touchdowns — but head coach Mike Tomlin should have had an attentive audience this week after his team got outgained by -153 net yards. The offense has been anemic with second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett struggling and offensive coordinator Matt Canada under intense fire for his play-calling and schemes. But the Steelers have faced two tough defenses in San Francisco and Cleveland who may both have top-five defenses this season. Getting to play against the Raiders should help Pickett have his best game of the season. Las Vegas is only producing pressure on the quarterback on 10.5% of their dropbacks — and opposing quarterbacks are completing 81.7% of their passes. The Steelers defense gave up 198 rushing yards last week — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after alloying 175 or more rushing yards in their last contest. Tightening things up in the ground game was high on the list of priorities after they also gave up 188 rushing yards to the 49ers — and Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in two straight contests. The Steelers miss the injured Cam Heyward — but they should be better this week. After playing their first two games at home, they go on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 44 of their last 71 games after a two-game home stand with three covers in their last four games under those circumstances. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road as an underdog of up to three points. Las Vegas opened their season by beating a now 0-3 Denver team that just gave up 70 points this afternoon — but they only scored 17 points in the win. The Raiders may have been exposed last week against the Bills — and a bounce back may not be in the cards as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 14 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games after a loss by 21 or more points. Some of Las Vegas' troubles start with their rushing attack which is averaging only 58 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Josh Jacobs is only generating 1.6 Yards-Per-Carry. The Raiders may only have one quality offensive lineman in left tackle Kolton Miller — everyone else may be just replacement-level guys. Is second-year general manager Dave Ziegler simply continuing the mismanagement of talent evaluation that was endemic in the Jon Gruden residency in Vegas with general manager Mike Mayock (plucked away from the television booth)? Ziegler has continued an approach in the NFL draft that appears to be based on only watching nationally televised games in the 3:30 PM ET and prime-time windows. Signing linebacker Chandler Jones as a free agent last season seemed ill-advised — and it has been a disaster with the 33-year-old now away from the team due to personal issues. Mayock buried this roster through years of over-drafting Clemson and Alabama players that were busts on and off the field. And this team is favored? The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has won nine of their last 12 games with T.J. Watt healthy and on the field. They have also won four of their five prime-time games with Pickett at quarterback. The Raiders have lost all three of their prime-time games under head coach Josh McDaniels. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (475) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (457) minus the points versus the New York Jets (458). THE SITUATION: New England (0-2) has lost their opening two games after their 24-17 loss at home to Miami on Sunday night as a 1-point underdog. New York (1-1) comes off a 30-10 loss at Dallas as an 8-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: New England will be playing with desperation this afternoon as they look to avoid starting the season 0-3 which will all but ruin their postseason aspirations — especially with two of the losses being against divisional rivals. It is fashionable to dump on head coach Bill Belichick because he has not been as successful as Tom Brady after their split in 2020 — but his teams have not gone worse than 7-9 in the three seasons since (despite being ravaged with roster attrition in that 2020 COVID season). The Patriots reached the playoffs in the 2021 season even with a rookie at quarterback — an achievement that would deserve Coach of the Year accolades if the individual was an “offensive” coach who once sat at the lunch table with Sean McVay. Belichick can still coach — he just has a different mentality that the en vogue methods of the young crop of offensive play-caller/head coaches. The defensive mentality coming from Belichick raises the floor of minimum expectations (like Mike Tomlin) — and that is why his teams have not bottomed out like McVay’s Rams did last season. So let’s keep some perspective: the Patriots lost by one scoring possession to both the NFC representatives in the Super Bowl (Philadelphia) and an AFC playoff team last week. This remains a team that outscored their opponents last season despite an 8-9 record. Belichick’s Patriots have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss at home. They were outgained by -101 net yards last week with the Dolphins averaging 6.48 Yards-Per-Play — but New England has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing 6 or more YPP. The Patriots ranked eighth in the NFL last year by holding their opponents to just 322.0 YPG - and they are only giving up 320 YPG this season despite playing the potent Eagles and Dolphins offenses. The other side of the ball is in much better hands under offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien after the Matt Patricia/Joe Judge coordinator experiments of last season. Quarterback Mac Jones has a better relationship with O’Brien — and he does lead the NFL in completions this season. He gives the Patriots a big edge this afternoon when compared to the Jets’ Zach Wilson. The third-year pro has been eaten alive by Belichick’s defenses in his career — in his four games starting against New England, Wilson has posted a 50.8 Passer Rating with only two touchdown passes and seven interceptions. The Jets lost all four games while scoring less than 10 PPG. This is a volatile situation with Wilson their best option under center after the Aaron Rodgers injury — and further failures against the dreaded Patriots today may quickly pick the scab of his unpopularity inside the locker room and with the Jets’ fans. In his 23 career starts, Wilson has 22 interceptions — and he is last in the NFL so far this season in Passer Rating and completion percentage. In theory, New York has a robust rushing attack to help him out — but they only ran for 64 yards last week against the Cowboys. The Jets’ offensive line is a mess with the underachieving Mekhi Bechton at right tackle — and now left tackle Duane Brown is out for this game with a shoulder and hip issues. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after failing to rush for more than 75 yards in their last game. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in September.

FINAL TAKE: With Tropical Rainstorm Ophelia impacting the Meadowlands, rain and wind are expected for this game. The last time the Patriots started 0-3 was in 2000 — so the Belichick approach of being patient and waiting for the other guy to start making mistakes will likely be the prudent approach under these weather conditions. As it is, New England has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games when favored by seven points or less — and the Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as a home underdog of seven points or less. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (457) minus the points versus the New York Jets (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Giants (301) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (302). THE SITUATION: New York (1-1) rebounded from their embarrassing loss to Dallas on Sunday Night Football with a 31-28 victory at Arizona as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (2-0) is unbeaten in their first two games after their 30-23 victory on the road against the Los Angeles Rams as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: We bet numbers rather than teams — and expecting the 49ers to win by more than 10 points is probably too much to ask. New York certainly qualifies as an ugly underdog after the humiliating 40-0 loss on national television to the Cowboys — and then they continued to look terrible in the first half against the woeful Cardinals by going into the locker room trailing by a 20-0 score. But the Giants deserve credit for picking themselves off the mat by outscoring Arizona by a 31-7 score in the second half to secure the victory. Head coach Brian Daboll took over the play-calling of the offense in the second half — and that unit clearly got energized by that decision. Quarterback Daniel Jones completed 26 of 37 passes for 321 yards with two touchdown passes — and he added another 59 rushing yards with another touchdown. I think everyone understands that the Giants were incredibly fortunate to reach the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs last year after getting outscored and outgained in yardage during the regular season. Posting an 8-4-1 record in games decided by one scoring possession got them into the playoffs — and they had an opportune first-round draw against a Minnesota team that had an even more improbable 11-0 record in games decided by one scoring possession. But last year’s good fortunes do not disqualify this team from improving the 8-9 team that the underlying analytics grading this team out as. Daboll immediately fixed Jones’ turnover problems as the fifth-year pro threw only five interceptions — and his 1.1% interception rate was the best in the NFL for regular starting QBs. Can the team can add team speed, find more playmakers on offense to stretch the field, and improve their run defense? If so, then they could certainly develop into a more deserving playoff team this season. Football Outsiders' weighted DVOA metrics ranked them as the seventh-best team in the league, for what that is worth. To address their run defense that ranked 27th in the NFL by allowing 144.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game, they signed defensive tackles A’Shawn Robinson and Rakeem Nunez-Roches along with linebacker Bobby Okereke in free agency who all have good reputations as run stuffers. In that opening-week loss to the Cowboys, the Giants did hold Dallas to just 122 rushing yards on 20 carries. A healthier wide receiver room will help with playmakers to help Jones in the passing game — and they traded for Darren Waller from Las Vegas to give him a viable number-one target. He led the team in targets last week while catching six balls for 76 yards. New York drafted Jalin Hyatt from Tennessee in the third round in the draft last spring — and Daboll got him going in the second half last week with the deep threat catching two balls for 89 yards. Going inside the numbers of that Cowboys debacle, the Giants started well by driving down the field for a field goal opportunity. But after that kick got blocked and returned for a special teams touchdown for Dallas — and then Jones threw a pick-six later in the first quarter — the momentum in that game became overwhelming for the Cowboys who could then pin their ears back and rush the passer to protect their big lead (in rainy weather). There are not many NFL teams who were not going to get blown out after such an auspicious start against this Dallas team. And New York was still hungover from that bad game traveling out west to play a bad Cardinals team. But I expect their best game of the season in a situation where no one expects them to compete. I like that they stayed out west this week to prepare for this game. The defense is playing well — they are only allowing 322 YPG. Despite getting outscored and outgained last year, only three of their regular season losses were by double-digits. They have not been given any favors regarding injuries with running back Saquon Barkley, left tackle Andrew Thomas, and linebacker Azeez Ojulari all out for this game. But backup running back Matt Breida is a veteran who is a capable backup. The Giants have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a win on the road by three points or less. Expect New York to get off to a better start in this one after two straight disastrous first halves — they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 22 games after allowing 17 or more points in the first half of two straight games. The Giants averaged 8.28 Yards-Per-Play last week (even with the Barkley injury) — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 road games after generating at least 6.5 YPP in their last game. And in their last 10 games on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range, they have covered the point spread 7 times. San Francisco may be a bit overvalued coming into this third game. They easily beat a Pittsburgh team that is experiencing major issues on the offensive side of the ball. And while the Rams are playing better than expected this season, it is not a good sign for the 49ers that they were outgained by that Los Angeles team by 21 net yards. The Niners are benefitting from winning the turnover battle in their first two games with a +3 net turnover margin — and that is something Daboll will preach to his team to not play into. The 49ers may have the best roster in the NFL but the biggest question remains: how good will their play be at the quarterback position? For those of us who handicapped every Brock Purdy game when he played in college at Iowa State, we appreciate why he was Mr. Irrelevant in the NFL draft. With 48 career starts, he has tons of experience which helps his decision-making. And because he is accurate in the short and intermediate passing game, perhaps he is a great fit for the Kyle Shanahan offense. But he lacks arm strength for a dynamic vertical passing game — and he threw too many interceptions for the Cyclones when asked to be a gunslinger. In the playoffs last season, Seattle, Dallas, and then Philadelphia exposed his tendency to bail to his left when under pressure (and it contributed to his wrist injury). The loss of right tackle Mike McGlinchey to Denver in free agency may haunt this team since ample time is an essential requirement for the Shanahan offense to purr — and Purdy holds on to the ball a little longer than Jimmy Garoppolo. Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk is questionable tonight with a shoulder injury — he was considered 50-50% to play yesterday and will be a game-time decision tonight. Even if he plays, he may not be 100% — and he is important to the offense as a legitimate deep threat who opens up the middle of the field. This will be the Niners' first home game this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 62 home games after playing their last two games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: This situation is similar to when the Giants played in Dallas on a short week on Thanksgiving as a 10-point underdog — and they covered the point spread in a 28-20 loss in that game. New York has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games played on a Thursday — and San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games played on a Thursday. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the New York Giants (301) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (292) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (291). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-1) looks to bounce back from their 30-7 loss to San Francisco as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Cleveland (1-0) opened their season with a 24-3 win against Cincinnati as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh was overwhelmed by the 49ers last week — but head coach Mike Tomlin should rally his troops in this divisional rivalry game tonight despite injuries to defensive end Cam Hayward and wide receiver Dionte Johnson. The Steelers closed last year strong by winning five of their last seven games — and the reports out of training camp were that they were one of the sharpest teams in the preseason — so that flat effort last week was surprising (and perhaps a statement as to how good the Niners are). Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss by 21 or more points. Additionally, the Steelers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing 30 or more points. Second-year Kenny Pickett threw two interceptions last week which was out of character for him after he only threw one interception in his last eight starts last season. While he will miss Johnson as one of his targets, he still has second-year wideout George Pickens who is poised for a breakout season. Don’t be surprised if Pittsburgh deploys two tight ends frequently in this game with rookie Darnell Washington getting plenty of snaps — he is a massive 6’7 target who was underutilized in the passing game at Georgia. The Steelers will miss Heyward on their defensive line — but they have depth with their defensive ends. Remember, this group is much better with a healthy T.J. Watt — they had an 8-2 record when he was healthy last season. Pittsburgh ranked tenth in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 20.4 Points-Per-Game. Cleveland was impressive at home against a Bengals team that looked rusty on offense after Joe Burrow missed most of the preseason with a calf injury. But quarterback Deshaun Watson continued to lack the spark he demonstrated in his time at Houston — he completed only 16 of 29 passes for just 154 yards. The growing concern with Watson is that the year and a half away from football due to his injury and then suspension has zapped his juice which was his x-factor in making him a special player. The Cleveland offense is dealing with some injuries themselves. Right tackle Jack Conklin is out the season with a torn ACL and MCL — and the Browns offensive line unit is dealing with some other guys that are banged up. Wide receiver Amari Cooper is questionable with a groin — and his absence would leave them without a reliable number-one target since Donovan Peoples-Jones and Elijah Moore have not taken advantage of their past opportunities. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games on the road after a double-digit win. They have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games after winning their last game by 14 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a win by 21 or more points. Additionally, the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win against an AFC North rival. Furthermore, Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. They did outgain the Bengals by +158 net yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after outgaining their last opponent by +100 or more yards. And in their last 15 games as the favorite, Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of those games.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has won 19 straight games at home at Heinz Field against the Browns — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games in expected close games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month is with the Pittsburgh Steelers (292) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (291). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (278) minus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (277). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (0-1) lost their opening game of the season in a 24-3 loss at Cleveland as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Baltimore (1-0) won their first game of the new season with their 25-9 victory against Houston as a 9.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS THE POINTS: The annual Baltimore Ravens injury-fest is already in full swing this season — this group is a M*A*S*H unit in just the second week of the season in such a way that makes an already good situation great. On offense, the Ravens' star left tackle Ronnie Stanley and their rock-solid center Tyler Linderbaum are out this week along with top running back J.K. Dobbins who suffered a season-ending Achilles injury. On defense, star free safety Marcus Williams is out with a pectoral injury, and their best cornerback Marlon Humphrey is out with a foot injury. Those are five starters gone for this divisional rivalry game — including two on the offensive line and two in the secondary against Joe Burrow and company — for a team that got outgained by the woeful Texans last week. The offensive line was already facing the challenge of replacing left guard Ben Powers who left in the offseason. And this is an offense in transition under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken — they gained only 265 total yards against Houston. Lamar Jackson’s contract dispute was finally settled in the offseason — but the removal of previous OC Greg Roman seems to suggest that Jackson and the organization want to rely on Jackson’s arm more than his legs. Even if Jackson can be a successful gunslinger at this level, he may not have the offensive line this afternoon to execute that vision. As it is, the Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win at home. Additionally, Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread 5 straight games after a double-digit win. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing less than 10 points in their last contest. They go on the road for the first time this season having failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games on the road with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Cincinnati was sluggish in the rain last week with the offense only gaining 142 total yards. Being on the field for only 24:10 minutes did not help — but Burrow was rusty after missing most of the preseason with a calf injury. The Browns' defense is very good this season — so playing them in bad weather when already being out of synch was far from optimal. But now this group wants to avoid another 0-2 start like last season — although the Bengals did eventually rebound to reach the AFC Championship Game. Another week of practice should have Burrow back in the groove — he competed 67% of his passes in Week Two last year despite being on the road against the stout Dallas defense. Cincinnati has covered the pints spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to an AFC North rival. They also have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games when favored by up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: Burrow loves playing against the Ravens — with his perfect 3-0 record at home against Baltimore, he has averaged 316 passing Yards-Per-Game with seven touchdown passes and a Passer Rating go 110. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games against AFC rivals — and Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games against the AFC North. 25* AFC North Game of the Month with the Cincinnati Bengals (278) minus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (277). Best of luck for us — Frank.    

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (452) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (451). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (0-0) returns to action as the reigning Super Bowl champions after their 38-35 victory against Philadelphia in the Super Bowl. Detroit (0-0) comes off a 9-8 campaign last year where they missed the playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: The Lions were a reliable underdog against the spread last year. But now the hype train for the Detroit Lions has not been this loud in decades — and while they should contend for the NFC North title, I do not think the available evidence matches the raised expectations for this franchise that has not won a playoff game since 1991. I’m simply not impressed with their final Sunday night victory in Lambeau Field against Green Bay that thwarted the Packers' playoff aspirations despite their playoff hopes being eliminated earlier in the day. I think it is one of the easiest things to do in competitive events to find motivation to screw your rivals — especially when absolved from the pressure of failing to meet expectations. Good for the Lions that day! But the seeds of their downfall may have been exposed even in that game (more on that in my Final Take). And how impressive was that victory against the Packers, exactly? If the Aaron Rodgers Truthers who now drive the NY Jets Hype Train and the Rodgers Haters have one thing in common, it is this: that Green Bay team last season was a mess. Either Rodgers' bad season was a result of his playing with a broken hand or the product of Father Time’s impact on his skill set — but he was bad. There also is a narrative that the Lions' defense improved in the second half of the season. First of all, Detroit’s defense was playing at a historically bad rate through October when each of their opponents scored at least 24 points — so better numbers in the second half may have simply been the law of averages kicking in (especially when four games against Chicago and the broken Packers appear on the docket). Secondly, the most important game of the Lions' entire season was in Week 15 when they played at Carolina with control of their playoff fate on the line with a 7-7 record. In that game against the Sam Darnold-led Panthers under interim head coach Steve Wilks, Detroit lost by a 37-23 score with the “improved” Lions defense surrendering 570 total yards. Darnold looked like he was back at USC throwing against the RichRod Arizona defense while the Panthers rushed for 320 yards (not a typo). Detroit finished the season last in the NFL in yardage allowed — ranking 29th in run defense and 30th in pass defense. They did upgrade that unit in the offseason — but free-agent cornerback Emmanuel Moseley is out tonight with a knee injury. The hope is that the run defense will improve because of their rookie class — but I’m not sure those rookies suddenly make this group even middle of the road. Perhaps the dynamic Detroit offense will keep them competitive tonight? Jared Goff was very effective in the second half of the season once he stopped throwing interceptions. But Goff was at his at home all season including high-profile losses on Thanksgiving to Buffalo and in a shootout (loss) in September to Philadelphia (before that team’s continued in-season improvement). At home, the Lions scored 33 Points-Per-Game with Goff averaging 274 passing Yards-Per-Game with 23 touchdown passes, only three interceptions, and a QBR of 110. But on the road, Detroit’s scoring dropped to 19 PPG with Goff averaging 245 passing YPG with a mere four touchdown passes, four interceptions, and a QBR of 87. With tight end T.J. Hockensen traded to Minnesota and replaced by a rookie and second-year wideout Jameson Williams suspended for the first six games, who is Goff’s (reliable) second option in the passing game? The Lions remain a team that got outgained in yardage last season. Regarding Kansas City, I am assuming that tight end Travis Kelce will not play (although even better if he does — I give it a one out of three chance that he can go despite his bruised knee). The triumph of this Chiefs team last season was predicated on Patrick Mahomes' development as a quarterback in taking what the defense gave him in his first season playing without Tyreke Hill. The mission this offseason has been to nurture the development of wide receivers Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, and Rashee Rice into the passing attack to better complement Kelce. Even if Kelce does not play, head coach Andy Reid will scheme players open against the Lions defense Darnold picked apart last December — and Mahomes has more than demonstrated the discipline to simply find open receivers. And don’t be surprised if Reid’s game plan is to simply run over this porous Lions defensive line that the Panthers mauled with Isiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. On defense, the Chiefs will miss the departed Frank Clark which makes the Chris Jones holdout more urgent. But don’t forget that this defense thrived in the second half of the season due to the emergence of rookie defensive backs Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson, Bryan Cook, and Joshua Williams who all played significant roles in their playoff run. Second-year defensive end George Karlaftis is expected to make a big jump in his pass-rushing skills this season. Kansas City’s defense was underrated when playing at home last season as they held their regular season guests to just 19.4 PPG and 325.5 total YPG. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 6 straight games against non-conference opponents. Additionally, Mahomes has won all five of his home openers in his career with 19 touchdown passes and no interceptions in those games.

FINAL TAKE: Lions head coach Dan Campbell has been notoriously aggressive with his play-calling in his first two seasons. Detroit leads the NFL in fourth down attempts during his tenure — and they have successfully converted seven of their eight fake punts in his tenure. They had the luxury of being aggressive in that Sunday night game against the Packers with nothing on the line for them except the joy of playing the role of the spoiler. Now expectations have arrived for this team — and Campbell — and that aggressiveness can quickly become reckless (ask LA Chargers fans with Brandon Staley). I recall an ill-advised fourth down attempt inside the Lions’ 30-yard line in his rookie season in the salad days when he was trying to avoid a winless season. A mistake like that at Arrowhead Stadium against Mahomes would be Game (and point spread cover) Over. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month is with the Kansas City Chiefs (452) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (451). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, February 12th, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (101) plus the point(s) versus the Philadelphia Eagles (102) in the Super Bowl. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (16-3) won their seventh straight game — and 12th in their last 13 contests — with their 23-20 victory against Cincinnati as a 2-point favorite on January 29th. Philadelphia (16-3) is on a three-game winning streak after their 31-7 victory against San Francisco as a 2.5-point favorite earlier on that Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral field at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS PLUS THE POINT(S): I think Philadelphia is a good but not great team. I just cannot overcome their soft schedule and the fortunate turn of events they have enjoyed all season. The fact that their victory over the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game represents the best win on their resume — despite San Francisco lacking a player who could throw a credible forward pass in the second half of that game. Or was their mid-October victory against Dallas with Cooper Rush under center for the injured Dak Prescott? Trevor Lawrence was probably the best quarterback they beat all year — but that was on the first Sunday in October before the second-year pro blossomed in the second half of the season. Or was the best QB they beat Aaron Rodgers and a Packers’ team that lost at home to Detroit the final Sunday night of the regular season to fail to make the playoffs? It was not Daniel Jones who they beat in the opening round of the playoffs. Philly beat the Giants three times and they beat Minnesota — and that exhausts the list of their six wins against teams who made the playoffs. I know the Eagles have a great offensive line — so do the Lions. I know there are some sweet run blocks against the Niners' good defensive line from the NFC Championship Game — but I am not going to get too excited about those plays considering the fading morale of that 49ers team. By the way, Philly only averaged 3.4 Yards-Per-Carry against San Francisco. And despite their improved run defense after acquiring Ndamukong Sun and Linvale Joseph in mid-November, they still ranked 15th against the run in the second half of the season according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. I simply think the Eagles are a year away from learning how to beat great teams. I like Jalen Hurts — but I don’t love him yet to outduel elite quarterbacks in the fourth quarter. I don’t think head coach Nick Sirianni is ready to outwit Hall of Fame coaches on the other side of the field. In some ways, getting gifted the fortunate luck of Brock Purdy’s elbow injury early in that game may have given this team a false sense of confidence. True confidence would come from beating an outstanding team in the fourth quarter. As it is, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 21 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning three or more games in a row. And while they scored 69 points in their two playoff games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring 25 or more points in two straight games. This is Philly’s first road game since December 24th. The Eagles have played four straight Unders in a row while outgaining their two playoff opponents by at least +105 net yards. But Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after playing at least two straight Unders — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games after outgaining their last two opponents by +100 or more yards. Kansas City is playing in its third Super Bowl in the last four seasons. They have the best quarterback in the league Patrick Mahomes. They have a Hall of Fame head coach in Andy Reid with two weeks to prepare for this game — and his teams have covered the point spread in 20 of their 33 games in his career when he has two more weeks to prepare. I worried about Mahomes’ right ankle against the Bengals — but still concluded to back the Chiefs in that game. With two weeks to rest and continue the healing, Mahomes should be in even better shape than was against the excellent Cincinnati defense. He completed 29 of 43 passes for 326 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions in the AFC Championship Game despite the injury and then the loss of three wide receivers that made a significant impact on their ability to pass the ball. Reid does not expect Mecole Hardman to be able to play in the Super Bowl — but both JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney are expected to be able to play despite missing practice time in preparation for the game. This is a battle-tested team that won their two playoff games by ten combined points — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning their last two games at home by seven points or less. Mahomes has passed the test he faced this season if he could still maintain his productivity without Tyreek Hill. He has improved in taking what the defense gives him in the passing game. The Chiefs also have a running back in rookie Isaih Pacheco who can burn defenses that do not put enough players in the box. Since Week 10, Pacheco’s 728 rushing yards (before the AFC Championship Game) were the third most in the NFL. And the Kansas City defense is better than their season-long statistics suggest as this group continues to improve, as usual, under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. Led by Chris Jones, the Chiefs sacked Joe Burrow five times. They have held their last three opponents to just 17.7 Points-Per-Game and 312.3 total Yards-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams from the NFC — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher. The Chiefs are outscoring their opponents by +7.2 PPG — and the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games in the second half of the season against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more PPG. 25* NFL Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (101) plus the point(s) versus the Philadelphia Eagles (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (324) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (323). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (15-3) has won six straight games after their 27-20 win against Jacksonville as a 10-point favorite last Saturday. Cincinnati (14-4) has won ten straight games after a 27-10 upset win at Buffalo as a 6-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINT(S): The major uncertainty for this game regards how effective Patrick Mahomes will be on his gimpy ankle. Even if he is impaired, I still think Kansas City finds a way to get it done tonight. Mahomes still completed 23 of 30 passes for 195 yards with two touchdown passes last week despite the injury. And in 2019 with an ankle that head coach Andy Reid described as worse than what he is dealing with now, Mahomes threw for 443 yards with four touchdown passes. Because Mahomes is so unconventional in how he can deliver the football, he has ways to bypass the pain he may have in his right plant foot. The doctors will have it heavily taped up. Furthermore, after losing the Super Bowl to Tampa Bay two years ago when he was dealing with an ankle then, Mahomes has spent the last two years in training, nutrition, and practice preparing for addressing a moment like this. So has Andy Reid — and my investment in the Chiefs tonight is ultimately my endorsement of him. The loss to the Bengals in the AFC Championship Game last year was the defining moment of Kansas City’s season — and the entire offseason was his preparation for this moment (much more than their earlier meeting on December 4th). The Chiefs have now lost three games in a row to Cincinnati — but they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games under Reid when avenging a loss by seven points or less. Reid’s teams in his career have also covered the point spread in 36 of their 56 opportunities for revenge. This game is the culmination of the team’s need to evolve in the post-Tyreek Hill world. Mahomes perhaps became too reliant on the dopamine hit that would come from going for the big play with Hill (or Travis Kelce) — and Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has taken advantage of that. But Mahomes has continued to improve — and he did a great job of simply taking what the defense gave him. The ankle will probably limit his mobility — but Mahomes has demonstrated he can thrive in “only” being a pocket passer this season. From the pocket this year, Mahomes has completed 391 of 552 passes for 4598 yards with 34 touchdown passes, only nine interceptions, and a Passer Rating of 109.6. Anarumo’s adjustment in the December meeting between these teams was to do everything he could to take away Kelce from the offense — he caught only four balls for 56 yards in that game. But Mahomes has gotten more comfortable leaning on J.J. Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman, and running back Jerick McKinnon in the passing game — and this showdown may have been what Reid had in mind where they traded for Kadarius Toney who may be the ace in the hole tonight. And don’t be surprised if Reid dials up more running plays -- especially if Anarumo drops back eight in pass coverage again as he did in the second half in the AFC Championship Game last year. Since Week 10, rookie running back Isaih Pacheco has rushed for 728 yards, the third most in the NFL during that span. Additionally, I think the Mahomes injury puts the onus on his teammates to step up and play championship-level football to pick him up. Defensive tackle Chris Jones has yet to register a sack in his career in the playoffs — and while some of that is due to double teams (which frees up his partner on the line, Frank Clark), he needs to have a big game now. All this “Burrowhead Stadium” talk this week should have the Chiefs very chippy. We should not underestimate the home-field advantage Kansas City will enjoy tonight at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49-point range. While Cincinnati has won the last three meetings between these teams in the last 13 months, only one of those games was played in KC. I love Joe Burrow — I totally get it — and I take a back seat to no one in my appreciation for this Bengals defense under Anarumo. However, I do wonder if this team is primed for a letdown after their emotional upset victory in Buffalo last week after feeling disrespected by the NFL for being snubbed from having that game played on a neutral field. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset victory by 10 or more points. Furthermore, the Bengals caught a break last week with the snowy conditions that slowed down the Bills' pass rush. Cincinnati still has three starting offensive linemen out today — that narrative has seemed to completely disappeared (and I get that losing Jonah Williams may be addition by subtraction). While the Mahomes injury is significant, the state of Burrow’s offensive line remains a bit factor as well. Finally, it gnaws at me that the Bengals have been outgained by -20.5 net Yards-Per-Game in their ten games on the road. And despite winning their last three games, they have been outgained by -57.3 net YPG in those contests.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati has won three in a row against the Chiefs since Week 17 of last season — but all three games were decided by a field goal with all three contests being nip-and-tuck. Can the Bengals win yet a fourth coin flip in a row? Kansas City has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. I go back to Andy Reid: beating Cincinnati was the central question he had to answer in the offseason. I think he gets it done. 25* AFC Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (324) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (323). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (318) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (317). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (14-4) has won 11 straight games after their 41-23 win against Seattle as a 10-point favorite last Saturday. Dallas (13-5) has won three of their last four games after their 31-14 win at Tampa Bay as a 3-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Cowboys play this game under terrible circumstances. First, they have 2 1/2 fewer days to recover and prepare for this contest when compared to the 49ers who played the early game last Saturday. When facing a physical 49ers team on both sides of the ball, this is a significant problem. Second, this will be Dallas’ fourth straight game on the road — and all that travel tends to finally take its toll. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when playing on a short week after appearing on Monday Night Football. The Cowboys have been resilient off losses — but they remain inconsistent. They are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 14 or more points. They are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. Dak Prescott embodies this inconsistency. While he comes off a fantastic effort on Monday, he still has thrown 15 interceptions this season with 3.8 % of his pass attempts getting picked off. Dallas has also been a much better team at home where they have an 8-1 record this season while scoring 30.0 Points-Per-Game and outscoring their guests by +13.3 net PPG and enjoying a +9 net turnover margin. But in they are just 5-4 away from home while scoring -2.4 fewer PPG and only owning a +2 net turnover margin. Dallas has covered the point spread in three of their last four games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 39 road games after covering the point spread in three of their last four contests. The Cowboys' splits have been even more pronounced when they are playing on grass where they are just 2-4 with an average losing margin of -1.2 PPG and a -16.1 net Yards-Per-Game mark. On the other hand, San Francisco is 11-3 when playing on grass (including on their home field at Levi’s Stadium) with a +12.6 net PPG clip and a +72.8 net YPG mark. They hold their opponents to just 296.6 YPG when playing on grass which results in just 15.1 PPG. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 14 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory — and they are 11-2-3 ATS in their last 16 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Adding Christian McCaffrey onto this team has made their offense nearly unstoppable. With Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, fullback Kyle Juszczyk, and now McCaffrey, head coach Kyle Shanahan now has four hybrid players who serve as jokers who can play multiple positions on offense. The four of them combine to create 13 different looks for this Niners’ offense — and this just puts a massive strain on opposing defenses. All these weapons make the job easier for rookie quarterback Brock Purdy who simply needs to act as a point guard in distributing the football. San Francisco has scored 38.7 PPG and generated 423.3 YPG in their last three games. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games at home.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points -- and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home when favored. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games in January — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs. 25* NFC Game of the Year with the San Francisco 49ers (318) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (317). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (302) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (301). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (14-3) concluded their regular season on a five-game winning streak — with 10 wins in their last 11 games — after a 31-13 win at Las Vegas as a 9-point favorite on January 7th. Jacksonville (10-8) has won six games in a row after their 31-30 upset win at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Never in doubt(!) for those of us that had the Jaguars last week. Jacksonville trailed by a 27-0 score in the second quarter before scoring a crucial late touchdown to go into halftime trailing by 20 points. They then got plenty of help from the Chargers coaching staff that did not take advantage of burning time off the clock by running the football — allowing the Jags to methodically rally to take the lead and win this game. Great win for head coach Doug Pederson and quarterback Trevor Lawrence — but I am worried about the emotional letdown for this team after pulling off this near-miracle comeback. I am also worried about a few other aspects for Jacksonville in this step-up in competition. For starters, only two of the six teams they have played during their current winning streak made the playoffs — the Chargers and Dallas. They benefitted from playing against backup quarterbacks in their victories against the New York Jets and two wins against Tennessee. But remember that they needed a late defensive touchdown to beat Joshua Dobbs and the Titans to clinch their spot in the playoffs two weeks ago despite playing at home in that game. They only scored seven first-half points in that game as well — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 7 points in the first half in two straight games. Lawrence’s propensity to make mistakes and commit turnovers remains a significant issue as well despite his overcoming those four first-half interceptions last week. He has accounted for 21 turnovers this year from 12 interceptions and another nine fumbles. The Jaguars upset the Chargers despite a -5 net turnover margin — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after suffering a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. And while Lawrence passed for 288 yards last week, Jacksonville is 7-20-2 ATS in their last 29 games after gaining 250 or more yards in the air in their last game. Now Lawrence goes on the road where he has led the Jags to victory in just four of his 17 career road starts. The Jaguars were 4-6 on the road this season — and they were outscored by -24.9 net Yards-Per-Game in those contests. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 8 road games as an underdog this season. Additionally, Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games with the total set at 49.5 or higher including four of their last five games on the road. Now here comes the Chiefs with head coach Andy Reid’s teams covering the point spread in 20 of his 33 games when coaching with two more weeks of rest and preparation. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win on the road against an AFC West rival — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit win against a divisional rival. Patrick Mahomes faces a Jaguars defense that ranks 30th in the league in pass defense using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 playoff games at home at Arrowhead Stadium.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City beat Jacksonville at home earlier this season by a 27-17 score on November 13th — but after racing out to a 20-0 lead before letting up and letting the Jags back in that game, they are not likely to take this team lightly. The Jaguars are only 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 trips to Kansas City. The Chiefs reach their fifth straight AFC Championship Game with the win — their decisive edge in playoff experience should lead them to a double-digit win. 25* AFC Divisional Playoff Round Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (302) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (144) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (143). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (9-8) has won five games in a row after their 20-16 win against Tennessee as a 6-point favorite last Saturday night. Los Angeles (10-7) had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 31-28 loss at Denver as a 6-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS PLUS THE POINTS: Jacksonville experienced a character-building victory last week by relying on their defense to pull out a “must-have” game against a tenacious Titans team. We had Tennessee last week so it was expected that Mike Vrabel’s team would impose their will on the Jaguars in a low-scoring contest behind a rested Derrick Henry — but Jacksonville forced a late strip-sack on the Titans’ Joshua Dobbs that Josh Allen scooped up and raced into the end zone for the winning score. The Jaguars have covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 games after defeating an AFC South rival in their last game. While Trevor Lawrence is getting most of the attention for this team, their defense has forced 11 turnovers in the last five games. Jacksonville has held their last three opponents to just 272.0 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in only 7.3 Points-Per-Game they have allowed. The Jaguars are developing a formidable home-field advantage at TIAA Bank Field where they have won five of their seven games this season while holding their guests to just 335.3 total YPG and 19.0 PPG. They were neglected an eighth home game this season with their annual trip to London — but they come into this game on a four-game home winning streak which includes victories against playoff teams Baltimore and Dallas. Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 4 straight home games as an underdog. Lawrence does appear to have taken the next step in his development into one of the elite quarterbacks in the league. In his first eight starts this season, Lawrence completed 62.5% of his passes for 1840 yards and a 6.6 Yards-Per-Attempt average with 10 touchdown passes, six interceptions, and a Passer Rating of 84.0. In his last nine starts, the former number one pick in the NFL draft completed 69.7% of his passes for 2273 yards and a 7.4 YPA with 15 touchdowns, only two interceptions, and a Passer Rating of 104.6 that leads the league during that span. He should get plenty of help from running back Travis Etienne who averaged 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry en route to his 1125 rushing yards this season. The Chargers rank 29th in the league in Run Defense using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. They allow 5.6 YPC on the road which has resulted in home teams generating 156 rushing YPG. James Robinson torched this Chargers' defense for 120 yards in their first meeting on September 25th. Los Angeles head coach Brandon Staley loves his two-high safety shell looks — and that scheme worked when he was the defensive coordinator with the Rams two years ago. But without Aaron Donald patrolling the middle of the line of scrimmage, his Chargers’ defense has been mauled by opposing rushing attacks in his two seasons as their head coach. While the run defense improved in the second half of the season, Los Angeles has allowed their last two opponents to rush for 371 yards — throwing water on the narrative that getting Joey Bosa back elevated their ability to stop the run. The Jaguars are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams from the AFC. Los Angeles has scored 59 points in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 25 points in their last two games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after scoring 25 or more points in two games in a row. Furthermore, the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing to an AFC West rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing to a divisional rival by seven points or less. And while Los Angeles has covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. It should be noted that the Chargers played a weak schedule down the stretch that included Tennessee (in the game where Ryan Tannehill got injured), Indianapolis, the LA Rams, and then the Broncos — all teams that did not make the playoffs. Additionally, the loss of wide receiver Mike Williams is devastating for this team after Staley felt the need to play his key starters for an extended length of time last week despite having little at stake in their game against the Broncos. Williams injured his back in that game which will keep him out of this contest. The Chargers were 8-5 with a healthy Williams while scoring more than 24 PPG and averaging 372 YPG and 276 passing YPG — but they were 2-2 without him while scoring about 20 PPG and averaging just 317 total YPG due to getting 40 fewer YPG in the air. Offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi has quarterback Justin Herbert stuck in a short passing game where his average intended air yards per attempt is just 6.7 yards, ranking the third-lowest amongst starting quarterbacks. In games without Williams, Herbert’s average depth of target drops from 6.7 yards to 5.8 yards — making this offensive attack easier to defend.

FINAL TAKE: I don’t like the vibes with this Chargers team with Staley leading the way — and that dynamic is only made worse after contradicting the logic of not playing starters in the preseason by asking his starters to play last week. Now Williams is injured, the team is traveling east, and Sean Payton is lurking to take over this group. Los Angeles only beat one of the six teams on their schedule that made the playoffs — and that was the 7th-seed Miami Dolphins. Jacksonville has a 3-3 record against playoff teams— and they are in a much better position with a Super Bowl-winning head coach Doug Pederson steering the ship. Los Angeles will have the extra motivation to avenge their 38-10 loss at home to the Jaguars on September 25th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 opportunities to avenge a same-season loss by 21 or more points. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the Jacksonville Jaguars (144) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (143). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (460) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (459). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (8-8) has won four games in a row after their 41-17 victory against Minnesota as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Detroit (8-8) has won four of five and seven of their last nine after their 41-10 win against Chicago as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Green Bay has finally gotten their act together after hitting rock bottom with a 4-8 record going into December. Getting healthy has helped. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers finally embracing their running game has made a big difference as well. The Packers have run the ball at least 32 times in three of their last four games while generating at least 138 rushing yards behind Aaron Jones and A.J. Jones in the backfield. But perhaps the biggest tactical change Green Bay has embraced has been on the other side of the ball. The Packers are blitzing less — going from a 42% blitz rate in their first 15 games to just a 10% blitz rate in their last three. With the extra available pass defenders, Green Bay is playing multiple coverage schemes including more Cover-6 or two high safety looks. After ranking second-to-last in the league by allowing their opponents to complete 59.3% of their passes, their opponent completion percentage has dropped to 52.6% in their last three games, ranking 5th in the NFL. The Packers have picked off seven passes in their last three games with just one dropped which is a significant improvement over ten interceptions in their first 13 games where they dropped six potential interceptions. In these last three games, Green Bay ranks 3rd in the league in Defensive DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders. The Packers should build off their momentum now as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit win against an NFC North foe — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games at home after beating a divisional rival by 21 or more points. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring 40 or more points in their last contest. They have covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in their last four games. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning four games in a row. Forcing more turnovers has played a big role in their recent success. The Packers have enjoyed a +3 or better turnover margin in two straight and three of their last four games. They have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after having a +3 or better turnover margin in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 10 straight games after posting a +3 or better turnover margin in two straight games. Back at home at Lambeau Field, Green Bay has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against NFC rivals. Detroit may be due for a letdown since they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after beating an NFC North rival by 21 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after scoring 40 or more points in their last contest. They have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games after winning four of their last five games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They gained 504 yards against the Bears while averaging 7.41 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after generating 6.5 or more YPP. And while they held Chicago to just 230 total yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. The weather is expected to be in the low-20s tonight in Green Bay — which raises the issue of how Jared Goff and his small hands will perform under these conditions. At home under the dome, Goff has posted a 109.3 Passer Rating while completing 65.8% of his passes with 23 touchdown passes and just three interceptions, a 7.7 Yards-Per-Attempt average, and 247.2 passing YPG. But in his seven starts on the road, Goff has an 87.6 Passer Rating while completing 63.7% of his passes with only six touchdown passes and four interceptions with a 7.4 YPA and only 174.2 passing YPG. It’s an issue. The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 road games this season with the Total set in the 45.5-49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay will be looking to avenge a 15-9 upset loss in Detroit to the Lions as a 4-point underdog on November 6th. The Lions rank 5th in the NFL in Passing DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders — but it will be difficult for Goff to replicate those numbers in these cold conditions. The Packers rank 3rd in the NFL in Rushing DVOA which will not be impacted by the cold weather — and they will be running against a Lions defense that ranks 27th in Opponent Rushing DVOA Allowed. Green Bay has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 9 points. 25* NFC North Game of the Year with the Green Bay Packers (460) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (459). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Jets (455) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (456). THE SITUATION: New York (7-9) lost their fifth straight game after their 23-6 loss at Seattle as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Miami (8-8) has lost five games in a row as well after their 23-21 loss at New England as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS THE POINTS: New York has played themselves out of the playoff race — and their offense has been anemic by scoring just nine combined points in their last two games. But I expect second-year head coach Robert Saleh to rally his troops in the role of the spoiler against a reeling Dolphins team that still clings to postseason hopes. The Jets have suffered three-straight upset losses — so turning the tables this week would give them some measure of satisfaction. Quarterback Mike White is out for this game with a rib injury — but I consider that a blessing in disguise since that allows for the veteran Joe Flacco to play under center this afternoon. Flacco may not be the quarterback of the future — but he is a savvy veteran with a Super Bowl championship on his resume. In limited time this season, he has thrown for 902 yards with five touchdowns and just three interceptions.  White thew two interceptions last week in the loss to the Seahawks. Flacco will be using this game as an audition to serve as a backup next season — hopefully, for him, a playoff contender. New York has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by 14 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than 9 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 6 points in their last game. Flacco will not have any druthers playing in a hostile environment — and the Jets have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road. New York has also covered the point spread in 37 of their last 58 road games with the Total set in the 35.5-38 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 road games this season with the Total set in the 35.5-38 point range. Furthermore, the decision to sign Mike Glennon as backup quarterback signals that Teddy Bridgewater will probably not be available — and that means rookie Skyler Thompson gets the start under center. The 6th round pick out of Kansas State is completing only 54% of his 74 passes this season. He has thrown only one touchdown pass while tossing three interceptions — and his low 5.2 yards-per-attempt mark is concerning given the weapons and speed the Dolphins have on offense. It looks like starting left tackle Teron Armstead will not play with the foot injury that has him doubtful. This Jets' defense remains quite good — they hold their home hosts to just 308.3 total Yards-Per-Game which results in just 18.6 Points-Per-Game. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a narrow loss by three points or less. Additionally, the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing three games in a row.

FINAL TAKE: Miami needs to win this game and then hope New England loses to Buffalo to make the playoffs — but there are rumors that the entire coaching staff will be fired if they do not make the playoffs. I think rookie head coach Mike McDaniel is a bit overrated because I don’t think the inventive play-calling he picked up from Kyle Shanahan necessarily qualifies him for the Hall of Fame quite yet. McDaniel has had some bumps this season — mostly with game management but also with the Tua Tagovailoa situation. Overall, I think he is doing fine and deserves another year — but the team’s owner dreams of Sean Payton or Jim Harbaugh coaching his team. Needless to say, I don’t like the vibes, once again, within this organization. 25* AFC East Underdog of the Year with the New York Jets (455) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (107) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (108). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-8) has won two straight games — as well as four of their last five — after their 13-10 win against Las Vegas as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. Baltimore (10-5) has won three of their last four — and seven of their last nine — after their 17-9 victory against Atlanta as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh is playing good football as of late — and it starts with their defense. They have held their last three opponents to 239.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has translated into only 14.0 Points-Per-Game. They are outscoring their opponents by +3.0 PPG and outgaining them by +95.0 net YPG. Kenny Pickett returned at quarterback last week and completed 26 of 39 passes for 244 yards. He did throw a touchdown along with an interception — but that pick was his first one in five starts. He is completing 65.2% of his passes in his rookie season. The Steelers outgained the Raiders last week by +149 while holding them to just 201 total yards. Las Vegas only gained 58 rushing yards last week — and Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last contest. And while the Steelers have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road as an underdog getting up to three points. Additionally, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 26 games in January under head coach Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 16-7-3 ATS. Baltimore is just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a point-spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after winning three of their last four games. Furthermore, the Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Ravens have held their last four opponents to 14 points or less — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 home games after not allowing more than 14 points in two straight games. But Baltimore has not scored more than 17 points in those four contests — they are averaging just 11.5 PPG during that span. If the Ravens’ offense was limited under Lamar Jackson this season without a legitimate number-one wide receiver after trading away Hollywood Brown in the offseason, then things have been even worse with Tyler Huntley under center for the injured Jackson (who has not yet been cleared to play). Huntley completed only nine of his 17 passes last week for just 115 yards. He added 26 yards on the ground — but he is not nearly the same threat with his legs as Jackson. Huntley has only one touchdown passes in his four games this season — and he is averaging just 138 passing YPG and 5.8 yards per attempt. He is getting sacked once in every 15 dropbacks. Baltimore stays at home where they are getting outgained in yardage despite their 5-2 record. They are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games when favored by seven points or less. The Ravens have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against fellow AFC North opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers are looking to avenge a 16-14 upset loss at home to Baltimore as a 4.5-point underdog on December 11th — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a home favorite. 25* AFC North Game of the Year with the Pittsburgh Steelers (107) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (482) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (481). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (4-9-1) has lost four straight games — and seven of their last eight contests — after their 39-36 loss in overtime at Minnesota as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday. Los Angeles (8-6) has two straight games — and three of their last four — after their 17-14 win against Tennessee as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: Watching Tom Brady last night was excruciating — and I had long concluded that these rumors that he is going to go play for San Francisco or Las Vegas next year as a joke since he is a 45-year old QB with diminishing skills (but the Raiders may still decide to bring him here on as an attraction on the strip). And Tennessee was brutal for us on Saturday. But yet, here we go with the darn Indianapolis Colts tonight (in a situation I have been thinking about for weeks). I know interim head coach Jeff Saturday is a joke. But allow me to offer the gentle reminder that we are betting numbers rather than teams. We have Monday Night Football home dog getting more than a field goal coming off the biggest blown lead in NFL history after going into halftime with a 33-0 lead against the Vikings — and, oh, it’s against a Brandon Staley-coached team. And, by the way, Nick Foles may be an upgrade at quarterback for Indianapolis because he can at least throw the football down the field still (as opposed to Matt Ryan). Success in sports gambling requires being willing to invest in bad teams (with the point spread, of course). In the NFL right now, it is pretty much all bad teams, in one way or another. If one wants to only invest in "good" NFL teams, well, then that is a recipe for passing on the entire card. If you need to hold your nose and look away, I don’t blame you. The Rams played great yesterday after being awful for us on Monday. These bad teams are also fickle. Irrespective of Jeff Saturday still deluding himself into thinking he still has a chance to get another head coaching job, the Colts players are embarrassed. It was only two weeks ago when they got demolished by a 33-0 score in the fourth quarter alone against Dallas. This team has been a laughing stock on national television for two straight weeks — so we are talking about professional pride at this point. As it is, the Colts have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss on the road. They did cover the point spread for the first time in their last three games against Minnesota — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Now after playing their last two games on the road, they return home to Lucas Oil Stadium where they are outgaining their opponents in yardage. Indianapolis is 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 home games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. The defense has played well for long stretches before collapsing in the second half — but they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. The Indy defense ranks 11th in the NFL according to the Defensive DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders — and they improve to 10th in the league when using their weighted numbers that privilege recent results. Foles is making just his second start in over two years — but he held his own for Chicago last year by completing 24 of 35 passes for 250 yards while averaging 7.1 Yards-Per-Attempt in a 25-24 victory against Seattle which included him orchestrating a late fourth quarter drive. The Colts have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in December. Los Angeles is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December. The inconsistent Chargers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Los Angeles is 4-3 on the road but still getting outgained in yardage. The defense ranks 22nd in the NFL in weighted Defensive DVOA. They rank 28th in Run Defense DVOA — and that unit is not getting any help from an offense that has passed the ball 51 times per game in their last four games. I can’t wait to watch Justin Herbert play for Sean Payton. In the meantime, he is struggling under offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. The Chargers are bottom-six in Early Down Success Rate and Early Down Efficiency which is then asking Herbert to bail them out too often on third-and-long. In their last three games, Los Angeles is scoring only 20.0 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Colts have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their 7 games this season getting 3.5 or more points including both of their games at home under those circumstances. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month is with the Indianapolis Colts (482) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (481). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (479) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (480). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (6-8) has lost two games in a row after their 34-23 loss to Cincinnati as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. Arizona (4-10) has lost four games in a row after their 24-15 loss at Denver as a 1.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay has lost six of their last nine games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in four straight games. But the books still have them as a road favorite in the touchdown range. It may look easy for many to simply take the home underdog out of principle — but let’s not take the cheese. This Buccaneers team is going to continue to work hard with the playoffs — and an automatic home game in the first round by winning the NFC South — still in their control. Tampa Bay actually outgained the Bengals last week by 159 net yards. They gained 396 yards against the stout Cincinnati defense with Tom Brady completing 30 of 44 passes for 312 yards with two touchdown passes. It was the Buccaneers’ -3 net turnover margin that played a big role in their loss. Tampa Bay held the Bengals’ offense to just 237 total yards — and they are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games after holding their last opponent to no more than 250 yards. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a loss at home — and they are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a double-digit loss at home. The deeper metrics indicate that the Buccaneers should be seeing better results than their win-loss record indicates. They are outgaining their opponents by +28.0 net Yards-Per-Game. They rank 9th in the league in DVOA Defense using the analytics at Football Outsiders with top-12 ranks against both the run and the pass. They have given up 28.3 Points-Per-Game in their last three games — but they held those three opponents to just 313.0 YPG. On the road, they are outgaining their opponents in yardage while holding their home hosts to 317.0 YPG which is resulting in only 18.3 PPG. Despite their recent losing streak, Tampa Bay has outgained their last three opponents by +43.0 net YPG. Injuries have hit this team hard this season — especially on offense with their offensive line and their wide receiving corps. But this makeshift offensive line is starting to play better at this point of the season — and Brady finally has all his weapons back in the receiving game. Running the football has been an issue — but they are now getting productivity from rookie Rachaad White has 291 rushing yards in the last five games on 69 carries. Here now comes this Cardinals team that ranks 29th in Defensive DVOA against the run — and they allow opposing rushers to average 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry. Arizona is a dumpster fire of a hot mess — to mix some metaphors. General manager Steve Keim is on a leave of absence. Head coach Kliff Kingsbury let it slip this week that he wants out of the organization with broken relationships with Keim, the owner, and Kyler Murray (who is out for perhaps the next year with his torn ACL). The team is a M*A*S*H unit with a bevy of injuries on both sides of the football that has exposed an already aging roster. And with the concussion to Colt McCoy (who is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league), the Cardinals have to turn to Trace McSorley under center. The former Penn State quarterback is very limited in his skill set after being mostly a runner in college. He completed only 7 of 15 passes for 95 yards last week coming in after McCoy was knocked out of the game — and he threw two interceptions. In the four NFL games he has played, he has completed only 51.7% of his 29 career passes with three interceptions and no touchdowns. He averages only 5.7 yards-per-attempt. The Buccaneers will be able to put eight defenders in the box to stop the run while daring McSorley to beat them in the passing game. This is all very bad news for an offense that was only scoring 15.5 PPG in their last four games before having to turn to their third-string quarterback. To compound matters, Arizona is 1-6 at home where they are getting outscored by -7.3 PPG and outgained by -64.4 net YPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games at home.

FINAL TAKE: To put it kindly, Kingsbury is not one of the best coaches in the NFL. It is telling that the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games at home in the second half of the season. The Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games in the second half of the season. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (479) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (474) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (473). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (6-8) has won three of their last four games after their 24-16 upset win at Carolina as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Las Vegas (6-8) has won four of their last five games after their 30-24 win against New England as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Raiders needed one of biggest boneheaded plays in the history of the NFL to survive last week’s game at home against the Patriots — but the final nail to end their playoff hopes will probably be struck tonight. Las Vegas beat New England last week on Chandler Jones’ 48-yard fumble recovery after the Patriots’ Jacoby Meyers’ ill-advised lateral despite that game looking destined for overtime. The Raiders will not enjoy tonight’s weather in Pittsburgh with temperates in the single digits and the wind chill projected at -11. This team left Las Vegas weather that will be in the 50s here today — and, of course, they play their home games in the domed and air-conditioned Allegiant Stadium. Quarterback Derek Carr simply does not have much experience playing in cold weather in his career even going back to his college days at Fresno State. As it is, the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a game at home where both teams scored 24 or more points. They gave up 206 rushing yards to the Patriots while getting outrushed by 135 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in their last contest. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after getting outrushed by 75 or more yards. And while Las Vegas has covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. Carr has only won one game as a starting quarterback on the road in a prime-time game in his career. Despite having Davante Adams as his top wide receiver this season, he has only thrown for over 300 yards once this year. Carr’s unwillingness to scramble also limits his effectiveness at this point in his career. In his last seven games, he has run the ball only six times for 21 yards despite still being pretty adept with his feet. He has not rushed for a red zone touchdown in two years — making it easier for the opposing defense since he represents virtually zero threat to take off with the ball. The Raiders have turned the ball over seven times in their last four games — and Carr is responsible for six interceptions during that stretch. And then there is the Raiders' defense which is the only team in the league this season to allow opposing quarterbacks to register a Passer Rating of over 100. Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Raiders have also failed to cover the points spread in 12 of their last 15 games against teams with a losing record. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record. With T.J. Watt healthy and back on the field, the Steelers are playing a stout defense that has held their last four opponents to just 16.3 Points-Per-Game and 278.5 total Yards-Per-Game. Pittsburgh outgained the Panthers last week by +116 net yards while holding them to just 209 total yards. They ran the ball 42 times for 156 yards which helped them control time of possession for 36:11 minutes — and Pittsburgh is 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last contest. Running back Damien Harris has rushed for five touchdowns in his last five games. And after Mitchell Trubisky led them to victory last week, the team gets back Kenny Pickett under center tonight who has won four of his last five starts when able to complete the game. The rookie is doing a great job of managing games — he has not thrown an interception in five straight games and 129 straight throws. The Steelers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: I was taking Pittsburgh in this game even before the sad news regarding the death of Steelers’ legend Franco Harris. The NFL had already planned a big celebration recognizing the 50th anniversary of Harris’ “immaculate reception” touchdown catch against the Raiders — and Pittsburgh is inducting Harris into their Hall of Fame tonight. Now emotions will be heavy after Harris died in his sleep Wednesday night (after a day full of interviews plugging tonight’s festivities). Teams respond to moments like this. When Walter Payton died in 1999, the Chicago Bears traveled to Green Bay and upset the Packers by a 14-13 score despite being a 9-point underdog and having not won at Lambeau Field since 1993. With so many former players in attendance tonight, head coach Mike Tomlin will impart the value this organization puts on tradition — and it will be an energized crowd to get one for Franco. 25* NFL Network Game of the Year with the Pittsburgh Steelers (474) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (464) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (463). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (7-7) has lost four games in a row after their 17-14 loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Houston (1-12-1) has lost nine games in a row after their 30-24 loss in overtime against Kansas City as a 14.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS MINUS THE POINTS: Despite the recent slide, Tennessee can still retain a one-game lead in the AFC South race with a victory this afternoon. The Titans will have to accomplish this feat without starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill who is out perhaps the season with an ankle injury — so it will be rookie Malik Willis under center. Regardless, this is going to be the Derrick Henry show today. The bell-cow running back loves playing against the Texans. In his last four games against Houston, Henry has run the ball 120 times for 892 rushing yards — that is an average of 220 rushing Yards-Per-Game on 30 carries per contest. He is averaging 7.4 Yards-Per-Carry in those last four games -- and he has scored nine touchdowns in those contests. He should feast once again against a Texans-run defense that ranks second-to-last in the NFL in DVOA Run Defense using the analytics at Football Outsiders. Houston allows 148 rushing YPG on 4.9 Yards-Per-Carry. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss on the road. And while the Titans are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Tennessee returns home where they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Titans have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against fellow AFC South rivals. Houston has played Dallas and Kansas City to close games in the last two weeks — but they are 8-18-2 ATS in their last 28 games after a point spread win. The Texans took the Chiefs to overtime last week despite surrendering 502 total yards and getting outgained by -283 net yards. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards. The Texans are splitting time at quarterback between Davis Mills and Jeff Driskel — but they combined to pass for only 125 yards last week. Houston only generated 219 total yards against Kansas City — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after failing to gain more than 250 yards in their last contest. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. Houston is getting outgained by -107.5 net YPG this season. On the road, they are getting outscored by -6.8 PPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games as an underdog of seven points or less. In their last three games, they are getting outscored by -7.7 PPG and getting outgained by -127 net YPG. The Texans are riddled with injuries — headlined by rookie running back Dameon Pierce and wide receiver Nico Collins being out for this game. Houston will struggle to run the ball against this Titans defense led by Jeffery Simmons which is the top-rated against the run according to the DVOA metrics. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against AFC rivals.

FINAL TAKE: The Texans will be looking to avenge a 17-10 loss at home to the Titans on October 30th in a game that Henry rushed for 219 yards with two touchdowns. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when motivated with revenge. Furthermore, the Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Tennessee has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* AFC South Game of the Year with the Tennessee Titans (464) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (463). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Jets (452) minus the point(s) versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (451). THE SITUATION: New York (7-7) has lost three games in a row after their 20-17 upset loss against Detroit as a 2-point favorite last Sunday. Jacksonville (6-8) has won two straight and three of their last four after their 40-38 upset win in overtime against Dallas as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS MINUS THE POINT(S): The Jaguars have registered two straight upset victories after pulling the upset on the road in Tennessee against the Titans the previous week. But Jacksonville is just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after covering the point spread in two straight games. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has received plenty of accolades this week after engineering that upset win against the Cowboys. He is completing 70% of his lasses since Week Nine after completing 27 of 42 passes for 318 yards and four touchdowns against the Dallas defense. But Jacksonville is 6-20-2 ATS in their last 28 games after passing for 250 or more yards in their last contest. And while the Jaguars have leaned heavily on Lawrence by asking him to throw 42 passes in two straight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after attempting 40 or more passes in two straight games. The lack of a reliable rushing game will hurt Jacksonville tonight. While they rank 6th in the NFL in Passing DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders, they fall to 17th in Rushing DVOA. Making matters worse is the season-ending injury to starting left tackle, Cam Robinson. To compound matters, the weather tonight will hurt the ability of this team to execute in the passing game. The weather will be in the low-40s which makes it harder on receivers (especially when used to Florida weather) to hold on to the football. Even worse, the winds will start in the 15 miles per hour range with gusts adding perhaps another 15-20 MPH — and that will be the challenge for Lawrence who does not have experience in these conditions. Lawrence is dealing with a toe injury that the cold weather may exacerbate. The play of the Jaguars’ defense is a concern as well. They allowed 397 total yards last week with 154 of those yards coming on the ground. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in their last game — and they are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing 350 or more total yards. The Jaguars rank 28th in Defensive DVOA — and they have allowed their last three opponents to score 32.0 PPG and generate 399.3 total Yards-Per-Game. Jacksonville will now be without two of their best defensive players with linebacker Travon Walker (the top pick in the NFL draft) and defensive end Foley Fatukasi out for tonight’s game. Now the Jags play their third game on the road in their last four games on the road and on a short week under bad conditions for a Florida team. They are just 2-6 on the road while getting outgained by 55.9 net YPG. Jacksonville is 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. New York has rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. Zach Wilson will be under center again for this game — and while I am nowhere close to being sold on this guy, he did play well against the Lions while looking relaxed on the sidelines despite getting demoted a few weeks ago for Mike White who is now out with his broken ribs. Wilson completed 18 of 35 passes for 317 yards with two touchdown passes and only one interception — and the Jets have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after passing for 250 or more yards in their last game. Given the conditions tonight, head coach Robert Saleh will not let offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur ask much of Wilson in the passing game. The Jets will lean on their outstanding defense tonight which ranks 3rd in the NFL in weighted DVOA that prioritizes the more recent results. New York also gets their stud defensive tackle Quinnen Williams back after he did not play last week. The Lions gained 359 total yards last week — but the Jets have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after allowing 350 or more yards in their last contest. The Jets only ran for 50 yards last week — but they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 home games after not rushing for more than 50 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: New York has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against fellow AFC foes. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42-point range. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the New York Jets (452) minus the point(s) versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (451). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (310) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (309). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (10-3) has won four games in a row after their 20-12 victory against the New York Jets as a 10-point favorite last Sunday.  Miami (8-5) has lost two games in a row after their 23-17 upset loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: How the Dolphins will handle the weather has received plenty of attention in the media this week. As of the weather reports Friday night, the low temperature expected Saturday night in Buffalo is 26 degrees with modest winds from 5-10 miles per hour. And while up to 24 inches of snow is expected, most of that should have already taken place by tomorrow night. There may be some flurries — but Tua Tagovailoa will probably not be playing on snow, so his experience with the Alabama winters will offer him some familiarity. Yes, I am worried about how Tagovailoa and his team will handle the cold weather. In his two previous starts in December and January, Tagovailoa completed only 55.2% of his passes while averaging just 5.9 yards-per-attempt and posting a loss Passer Rating of 58.8. Miami got outscored by 61 combined points in those two games. But what I am more concerned about with this Dolphins team is the travel grind they have been on that has led to this chilly environment as their final destination for a three-game road trip. Miami has spent the last two weeks in California playing in San Francisco and Los Angeles. That is a challenging road trip for any NFL team — but it is probably even worse for a southern team who felt the need to use heaters on the sidelines to adjust to the 50-degree weather in LA last week. Even more concerning is the defensive adjustment that the 49ers made against the Mike McDaniel passing attack. While most teams have played zone coverages to account for the speed of Miami wide receivers Tyreke Hill and Jaylen Waddle, the Niners played man-to-man coverage on these wideouts while pressuring them on the line of scrimmage and pushing them off their quick slant passing routes that Tagovailoa has feasted on this season. Tagovailoa thrives in this style of play given his ultra-quick release and sharp accuracy — but he gets into trouble if he has to turn to his second or third options. The Chargers copied this approach last week — and it is something the Bills are most likely going to continue. In his last two games, Tagovailoa has completed only 28 of 61 passes for a 45.9% completed percentage with just 440 passing yards, a lower 7.2 YPA average, and five sacks. Frankly, the Dolphins might be finally getting exposed as a solid but unspectacular team. They are only outscoring their opponents by +0.3 PPG and outgaining them by +17.0 net YPG. They have +3 net close wins decided by one scoring possession. Their five-game winning streak was all against teams currently with losing records with a combined 20-46-1 mark. When Detroit is the team with the best record during a five-game hot streak, perhaps you are a beneficiary of a favorable schedule? On the road, Miami is getting outscored by -6.5 PPG while allowing 31.4 PPG and 387.1 YPG.  The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Miami has also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 road games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher. Injuries have hit this team hard in the defensive secondary. Safety Brandon Jones and cornerback Nik Needham are both out the season while cornerback Byron Jones has been on the PUP list since July. Now safety Eric Rowe and cornerback Elijah Campbell are out for this game with injuries challenging the team’s depth — and that is a bad way to face Josh Allen. Buffalo is 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games after a point-spread loss. And while they have only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests. The Bills miss Von Miller who is out the season with a torn ACL — but this team stocked up with defensive linemen in the offseason providing them the depth to compensate for injuries. The Buffalo defense is allowing only 14.4 PPG and 292.3 YPG in their last three games — and they have only one touchdown in each of their last two games. The Bills are outscoring their opponents at home by +16.8 PPG due to an explosive offense that scores 31.2 PPG and generates 410.6 total YPG. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45-point range. This team will embrace the cold weather — and Allen’s experience in chilly weather from his collegiate experience at Wyoming is a better preparation for what he will face than Tagovailoa’s winter experiences in Alabama. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: Miami is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games in Buffalo against the Bills. The Bills will be motivated to avenge their 21-19 loss in the Miami heat on September 25th — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge from a loss by 7 points or less. 25* AFC East Game of the Year with the Buffalo Bills (310) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (309). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (127) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (128). THE SITUATION: New England (6-6) has lost two games in a row after their 24-10 loss to Buffalo as a 3.5-point underdog back on December 1st. Arizona (4-8) has lost two straight — and four of their last five — after a 25-24 loss at home to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2.5-point underdog two weeks ago on November 27th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: New England comes off two straight losses — but they were against playoff teams, Minnesota and the Bills last week. Many observers are oh-so quick to criticize Bill Belichick since he has not had Super Bowl contenders since Tom Brady left for Tampa Bay — but the sign of a great coach is that your teams are still playing at a .500 level and contending for playoff spots even without a franchise level quarterback. Winning half the games is the floor for Belichick (23-22 post-Brady) — and there are many highly regarded coaches in the league (Sean McVay, Kevin Stefanski, Matt LaFleur) who would love a .500 record right about now. Expect the Patriots to play well tonight as they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games this season after a loss. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a double-digit loss at home. New England gained only 242 total yards while getting outgained by -113 net yards — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 straight games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 23 of their last 28 games after not generating at least 250 yards in their last game.  And while they have failed to cover the point spread in two straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games on the road after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Now the Patriots go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The thirstiest and lowest-hanging fruit of an argument to make is to criticize Belichick for appointing his former defensive coordinator (and disaster of a head coach in Detroit) Matt Patricia for being tabbed as the team’s offensive coordinator this season. The deeper analytics at Football Outsiders rank New England 25th in Offensive DVOA — ranking 26th in the run game and 22nd in the pass. But “offensive guru” Kliff Kingsbury with Kyler Murray at quarterback ranks 29th in the league in Offensive DVOA -- bottoming out at 27th in the run and 28th in the passing game. The Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by three points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a game at home where both teams scored 24 or more points. Murray is regressing — and it starts with his struggles against pressure. He has been sacked 18 times in his last three starts (all losses) — he got sacked once for every 12 of his dropbacks. His Passer Rating of 12.8 when under pressure is in the NFL. Now here comes Matthew Judon with his 13 sacks this season and this Patriots defense that ranks 3rd in the league by sacking the quarterback in 9.01% of their dropbacks. But it is not just handling pressure where Murray is struggling since he signed his large contract extension — it is when he is not dinking and dunking. In passes of at least 10 air yards (which is still technically considered intermediate), he has completed only 49 of 108 passes for a 45.4% completion percentage with two touchdowns on those throws but six interceptions. Furthermore, the 8.4 yards per attempt he is averaging on those throws is the third worst in the NFL — only Kenny Pickett and Joe Flacco have lower YPA averages. Murray has also lost sixteen of his last twenty starts at home. Arizona is a bad home where they are just 1-5 this season while getting outscored by -6.2 Points-Per-Game and getting outgained by -74.4 net Yards-Per-Game. The Carnivals have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home in the second half of the season. Furthermore, Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Say what you want about Belichick — but the Special Teams remain above average and his defense is elite. New England ranks 3rd in the NFL in Defensive DVOA — and ranking 8th against the run and 4th against the pass. This formula has helped the Patriots cover the point spread in 35 of their last 51 games against teams with a losing record. 25* NFL Monday Night Special Feature with New England Patriots (127) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (128). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (478) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (477). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (5-6) had their two-game winning streak snapped last week in a 23-17 upset loss at Cleveland as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. New Orleans (4-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 13-0 loss at San Francisco as a 9.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay has disappointed this season — and their fundamental flaw on the offensive line this year was made even worse with the lower-leg injury to Tristan Wirfs. I appreciate the impact of this injury. But …  running the ball helps cover the weaknesses of a bad offensive line and the Buccaneers are starting to get nice contributions from rookie Rachaad White who has rushed for 169 yards in the last two games with a 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry average. A veteran quarterback with elite pocket presence helps with a bad offensive line as well — and here comes Tom Brady with the opportunity to still get his team into the postseason with a defense that remains outstanding two years removed from their Super Bowl victory in 2021. The Buccaneers return home after playing their last two games away from home in Germany and then Cleveland last week. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home against teams with a losing record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after an upset on the road as a favorite. The Buccaneers are holding their opponents to 18.5 Points-Per-Game and 315.2 total Yards-Per-Game — and they have held their last three opponents to 17.3 PPG and 285.3 total YPG. The DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders ranks Tampa Bay as the 7th best defense in the NFL. New Orleans only gained 260 yards last week in their shutout loss to the  Niners. It is dangerous to fade teams embarrassed by a shutout loss — but the Saints’ issues on offense go much deeper than just a bad day at the office. They are scoring just 12.3 PPG and averaging 256.3 total YPG in their last three games. Alvin Kamara seems to have lost a step — he is averaging only 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry in his last three games with only 163 rushing yards. He has added another 230 yards in the air in those three games — but the problem there is that he serves as a primary receiver for this team that lacks weapons at wideout. The offense misses a number-one option now that Michael Thomas is out the season. And then there are their problems at quarterback with Andy Dalton being given the nod over Jameis Winston since he is less turnover-prone. The Red Rifles’ frontline stats are solid this season — but it is fair to say he lacks juice. Let’s use one of our tools in MLB to break his numbers down further: home/road splits. In his six starts at home at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, Dalton has completed 68.5% of his passes averaging a 7.6 Yards-Per-Attempt average with nine touchdown passes and two interceptions. But in his three starts on the road this season, he is completing 63.1% of his passes averaging 7.2 YPA with five touchdown passes and five interceptions. Dalton versus the Tampa Bay defense seems to be the critical matchup that gives the Buccaneers the edge — especially with Kamara faltering as of late. DVOA ranks the New Orleans offense 24th in the league — and their passing attack ranks 24th in the NFL. Not surprisingly, the Saints are bad on the road with a 1-5 record and scoring just 18.3 PPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Additionally, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight appearances on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: I had higher hopes for Dennis Allen as the head coach for the Saints this season — and he enters this month leading a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in December. The Buccaneers, on the other hand, have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December. I considered New Orleans’ revenge angle for this game and the sustained success they have had against Brady since he moved to Tampa Bay — but I still concluded the Bucs similarly handle them as they did on September 18th when they won 20-10 in New Orleans as a 2.5-point favorite. 25* NFC South Game of the Month with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (478) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (477). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (471) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (472). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (6-5) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 25-24 win at Arizona as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Las Vegas (4-7) pulled off their second-straight upset — both requiring overtime — in their 40-34 victory at Seattle as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Raiders are clinging to postseason hopes after losing seven of their first nine games this season in what has been a tumultuous first year under head coach Josh McDaniels. Surviving two straight overtimes is likely to be physically and emotionally draining after upsetting Denver on the road two weeks ago — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after pulling off two straight upsets. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning two of their last three games. Las Vegas has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win on the road where they scored 31 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring 35 or more points in their last contest. The Raiders gained 576 yards last week against the Seahawks after generating 407 yards against the Broncos two weeks ago — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 400 yards in two straight games. Derek Carr completed 25 of 36 passes for 295 yards with three touchdown passes but two interceptions in the win — but Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. Carr struggles against the Rams with a 1-3 record in his last four starts — and he has been sacked 13 times in those games for a sack rate of one in every 9.6 dropbacks. Furthermore, the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. Las Vegas has the worst defense in the NFL according to the DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher including failing to cover the point spread in seven of those last ten circumstances. Additionally, the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games when favored including five of their last seven games when laying the points. Las Vegas has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in December. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win on the road They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Chargers were outrushed in the game by -116 net yards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after outrushing their last opponent by 100 or more yards. They did enjoy a +2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. Justin Herbert was exquisite in that game by completing 35 of 47 passes for 274 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions despite still being without wide receiver Mike Williams. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 30 road games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games on the road as an underdog. Furthermore, Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in December — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against divisional rivals.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders will have revenge on their minds after losing in LA to the Chargers on September 11th by a 24-19 score — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when attempting to avenge a loss and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games when avenging a loss by seven points or less. Los Angeles still remembers losing in Vegas to the Raiders on the last Sunday night of the regular season that cost them a trip to the playoffs last season — but they have still covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played in the Raiders’ home building in Oakland or on the Vegas strip. 25* AFC West Underdog of the Year with the Los Angeles Chargers (471) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (275) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (276). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (3-7) has lost three of their last four games after their 37-20 loss to Cincinnati as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Indianapolis (4-6-1) has lost four of their last five games after a 17-16 loss to Philadelphia as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: When observing head coaches like Sean McVay endure a terrible season, it is a remarkable achievement for Mike Tomlin that his Steelers teams have not endured a losing record during his previous 15 seasons with the franchise. That accomplishment is at risk this year — but one thing we can rely on is that his teams will always play hard. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Steelers are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games after allowing at least 30 points including covering the point spread in five of those last six situations. They have also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after allowing 35 or more points. They are getting solid play from rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett who completed 25 of 42 passes for 265 yards with one touchdown pass and no interceptions. He is not making many mistakes under center while demonstrating composure and a sense of control that transcends the box score. Running back Najee Harris is heating up as of late as he leads a Pittsburgh rushing attack that has averaged 154 rushing yards per game in their last three contests. Harris has run for 185 yards in the last two games. The Steelers have generated 343.3 total YPG in their last three games which is more than 30 yards above their season average. They have also held their last three opponents to 331.7 YPG which is more than 40 YPG below their season average. After playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road for the next two games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing their last two games at home. Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a loss by six points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a loss at home by three points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread after a loss at home where they covered the point spread as an underdog. This is a bad football team despite their on-face defensive numbers that include them ranking 5th in the NFL by allowing only 307.6 YPG. The DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders rank the Colts' defense as 30th in the league — those analytics measure efficiency to neutralize the slowing down of the clock by running the football which helps Indianapolis’ frontline defensive statistics. The Indy offense ranks 31st using the DVOA numbers including ranking 30th against the pass and 32nd in the run game despite having Jonathan Taylor at running back. The Steelers have a solid run defense that tanks 14th in the league according to DVOA. The Colts are scoring only 14.7 PPG and 273.3 YPG in their last three games. They have a high school head coach running the team in Jeff Saturday. While the team got an initial boost when the former center for Peyton Manning went from owner Jim Irsay’s drinking buddy to head coach in a win over Las Vegas, the honeymoon is over. Every coach in the room knows he will not be back with the team — so morale is a concern for this group moving forward. Saturday posted a 20-16 record coaching for Hebron Christian Academy in Georgia for three seasons.

FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (275) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (259) minus the point(s) versus the Tennessee Titans (260). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (6-4) has won four of their last five games after their 37-20 victory at Pittsburgh as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Tennessee (7-3) has won seven of their last eight games after their 27-17 upset win at Green Bay as a 3-point underdog on November 17th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS THE POINT(S): After an 0-2 start to the season, the reigning AFC champions are clicking now even with injuries to skill players on offense. Running back Joe Mixon is not expected to play again this afternoon — but Samaje Perine stepped up with 82 rushing yards and three touchdown receptions against the Steelers. Wide receiver Ja’Mar Chase is questionable but not expected to play as well — but Joe Burrow continues to roll with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd as reliable weapons in the passing game. They have scored 30.7 Points-Per-Game in their last three games. Burrow completed 24 of 39 passes for 355 yards with four touchdown passes last week — and Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last contest. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a point-spread victory. Additionally, while the Bengals surrendered 408 total yards against Pittsburgh, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Cincinnati’s no-name defense remains underrated under defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo — they are holding their opponents to just 326.7 YPG. The Bengals also thrive in the hidden yards department — they are the least penalized team in the NFL with only 318 penalty yards assessed against them in their ten games. They go on the road where they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games against AFC opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. Tennessee may be due for a letdown after covering the point spread in eight straight games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after an upset victory by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games after a double-digit upset victory as a road underdog. Ryan Tannehill completed 22 of 27 passes for 333 yards against the Packers — but they are 23-49-2 ATS in their last 74 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. The Titans are eking out low-scoring games despite getting outgained by -54.7 net YPG. At home, they are getting outgained by -28.5 net YPG. Five of their seven victories have been decided by one scoring possession. And while their bend but don’t break defense is allowing only 15.7 PPG in their last three games, they are surrendering 361.0 YPG in those games. Tennessee has the top run defense in the league using the DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders — but they are just 13th against the pass using those metrics which is an ominous sign when facing Burrow. Tennessee is also dealing with a bevy of injuries still with defensive lineman Denico Autry out for this game and many other defensive starters listed as questionable.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee will want to avenge their 1816 loss at home to the Bengals in the playoffs last season — but this is still not a good matchup for them. Cincinnati averages 271 passing YPG — and the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games after eight games into the season against teams who are averaging 260 or more passing YPG. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Cincinnati Bengals (259) minus the point(s) versus the Tennessee Titans (260). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (110) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (109). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (8-2) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 40-3 loss at home to Dallas as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday. New England (6-4) has won three in a row after a 10-3 win against the New York Jets as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: In the Report on Dallas last week for our NFL Game of the Month, I leaned heavily on the underwhelming analytics for Minnesota this season despite having only one loss at the time. After getting blown out by 37 points, the Vikings are now being outscored and outgained in yardage this season. But I expect a very strong effort from them tonight to get the bad taste out of their mouths from that game. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 45 of their last 66 games after a straight-up loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 home games after a loss by 21 or more points. And while they trailed at halftime by a 23-3 score, the Vikings have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games at home after not scoring more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. Minnesota only gained 183 total yards in the game while having their offense on the field for just 22:36 minutes of that game — but they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 28 games after not gaining at least 250 yards in their last game. Quarterback Kirk Cousins completed only 12 of 23 passes for 105 yards before getting benched with the game out of hand. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games after a game where they did not gain at least 150 passing yards in their last game. Now we have a prime-time game with Cousins holding a career 10-18 record as the starter in prime-time games just like this. That said, I do note that Cousins completes 66% of his passes in prime-time with 50 touchdown passes and just 26 interceptions in those 28 prime-time games. The Vikings have a situational edge this week by getting to stay home on a short week — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. New England seemed destined for overtime against the Jets last week before returning a punt for an 84-yard touchdown late in the game to bypass Mac Jones attempt to lead the team on a game-winning drive. Cousins will not have to be great tonight to outduel the Jones-led Patriots’ offense. In their last three games, New England is scoring only 19.3 PPG and 262.7 Yards-Per-Game. The Patriots rank 26th in offense using the DVOA analytics by the Football Outsiders — and they are subpar in both the run and the pass by ranking 24th and 26th in those metrics. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their last contest. New England’s defense is keeping them in games — they have allowed 87 combined passing yards in their last two games. But we need to keep in mind that the last two quarterbacks that the Patriots have faced have been Sam Ehlinger and Zach Wilson — and those are two players who have since been benched. The Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in two straight games. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49-point range. Even facing prime-time Cousins is a massive upgrade in talent than what Bill Belichick’s defense has faced in the last two weeks. Minnesota is completing 64% of their passes this season — and the Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 road games against teams who complete at least 64% of their passes.

FINAL TAKE: The flip side of the middling Minnesota analytics is that their two losses this season have come against opponents who entered the week with a combined 16-4 record. New England has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games against teams winning at least 75% of their games. The Patriots are dealing with some injuries on this short week headlined by star left tackle Isaiah Wynn being out for this game. 25* NFL NBC-TV Game of the Month with the Minnesota Vikings (110) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (471) minus the point(s) versus the Minnesota Vikings (472). THE SITUATION: Dallas (6-3) had their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday in a 31-28 upset loss in overtime as a 4-point favorite. Minnesota (8-1) is on a seven-game winning streak after their 33-30 upset win in overtime at Buffalo as a 6.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINT(S): Many observers have expressed surprise that the Vikings are home underdogs in this game. Well, the laptops don’t think their 8-1 record corresponds with their underlying numbers. The analytics at Football Outsiders ranks Minnesota as the 17th-best team in the league — ranking a middling 17th on offense and 19th on defense. This is a team that is solid but not spectacular in an area — their run offense ranks 10th in the league using the Football Outsiders DVOA metrics which is their best specific showing. They rank in the teens in Passing Offense, Run Defense, and Pass Defense. They are just 25th in Special Teams DVOA. They are getting outgained in yardage by -25.3 net Yards-Per-Game. All seven of their wins during this winning streak have been by one scoring possession. If they win four of those seven games, then no one bats an eye if a 5-4 team is a home dog to a 6-3 road team. The Vikings were very fortunate to leave Buffalo with a victory last week — it required Josh Allen red zone interceptions, Sean McDermott bypassing chip shot field goals on 4th downs, the Bills’ lacking a four-minute offense, and a miracle fumble recovery on the Buffalo goal line with less than a minute to go. Minnesota may be due for an emotional letdown after that huge comeback victory. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by six points or less. They did surrender 486 yards in that game with 175 of those yards coming on the ground. The Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after allowing 350 or more yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing 150 or more rushing yards. And while Kirk Cousins completed 30 of 50 passes for 357 yards, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after passing for 250 or more yards. Cousins has a 2-8 record against Dallas in his career. The Vikings are also dealing with some injuries on defense with defensive end Dalvin Tomlinson out and linebacker Za’Darius Smith questionable with a knee. Dallas, on the other hand, ranks 4th in the NFL using the DVOA metrics with the 2nd best rushing attack and the 4th best pass defense. The Cowboys have rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by six points or less. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. They did gain 421 yards against the Packers' defense — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after gaining 350 or more yards in their last game. Dallas has averaged 431.5 Yards-Per-Game in their last two contests. And while they gave up 415 yards last week, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after giving up 350 or more yards — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. The Cowboys lead the league with 35 sacks — and Cousins is notorious for struggling if he is under duress. Dallas is staying on the road where they are outscoring and outgaining their home hosts — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 4 straight road games with the Total set in the 45.5-49 point range. Furthermore, Dallas has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games against NFC opponents — and the Vikings are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against conference rivals. The books will likely be vindicated for treating Minnesota as closer to a .500 team this afternoon. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (471) minus the point(s) versus the Minnesota Vikings (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (311) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (312). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (6-3) has won six of their last seven games after their 17-10 win at home against Denver as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Green Bay (4-6) snapped a five-game losing streak with their 31-28 upset win in overtime against Dallas as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: Tennessee will be without four starters tonight (one being their kicker Randy Bullock) — but I am comfortable endorsing them after getting confirmation at noon PM ET from the reports that Jeffery Simmons is expected to take the field. Simmons is their criminally-underrated defensive tackle that anchors their defense that the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders rank as the best against the run in the NFL. Simmons is listed as questionable with an ankle injury and only took part in limited practice on Tuesday — but he has not practiced for weeks but has still played at a high level in their last two games against Kansas City and then the Broncos. I suspected Simmons would play — but on a short week, I wanted further confirmation from the Thursday reports. The Titans expect quarterback Ryan Tannehill to again play tonight after he completed 19 of 36 passes for 255 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions on Sunday. The only loss for Tennessee since September 19th was their 20-17 overtime loss at Kansas City when they had to use rookie Malik Willis under center. The Titans controlled the tempo of that game — 5th-year head coach Mike Vrabel is one of the best in the business in preparing his team to impose their will on their opponent. Tennessee knows who they are and what they want to do — and it all starts with running back Derrick Henry who is playing at a very high level right now. Henry only gained 53 rushing yards on 19 carries against Denver — but that was the first time in his last six games that he did not rush for at least 102 yards. In his last six contests, he has gained 731 yards on the ground with seven rushing touchdowns and a 4.9 Yards-Per-Carry average. With his lighter workload on Sunday, he should be ready for a big performance tonight against a Packers defense now playing with Rashan Gary who suffered a season-ending torn ACL. Green Bay has been one of the worst defensive teams against the rush all season (even with Gary in the front seven). They have the worst run defense in the NFL according to the DVOA analytics. They rank 28th in the league by allowing their opponents to average 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry. It has been even worse for the Packers when playing at home as they rank second-to-last in the NFL by allowing 5.5 YPC and a whopping 171.3 rushing YPG. The Titans’ ability to run puts their defense in a position to better succeed — they have not allowed more than 17 points in five of their last six games (with the Chiefs’ field goal in overtime being the lone exception during that span). Tennessee has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread victory. The Titans have covered the point spread in seven straight games. While some bettors and handicappers may feel that is evidence of them being due for a letdown, that sounds like the gambler’s fallacy to me. The counter-take is that Tennessee remains undervalued by the betting market given their less-than-glamorous formula for success. When it comes to evidence, Tennessee has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread in four straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after covering the point spread in five straight games. This is what this team does when they get on a roll under Vrabel’s leadership. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after the first month of the season. Green Bay seems more likely to be vulnerable for a letdown after the highly emotional victory against the Cowboys in the Mike McCarthy versus Aaron Rodgers Bowl last week. Playing on a short week only compounds that matter. As it is, the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Green Bay found success by finally committing to running the ball for a full game. Rodgers only passed the ball 20 times — and they ran the ball 39 times for 207 rushing yards. For context, the previous fewest pass attempts that the Packers have had in a game was back in September when Rodgers threw the ball 25 times while handing the ball off 38 times — although many of those rushes came in the second half after they took a double-digit lead. Green Bay had success running against a Cowboys defense that got torched for 240 rushing yards by the Bears the previous week. It will be much harder to run the ball with success against this Titans defense (with Simmons in the middle) — especially if left tackle David Bakhtiari and/or right tackle Elton Jenkins are not at 100% or not able to play. Both tackles are listed as questionable for tonight after dealing with injuries all season — so playing on the short week is not a given. The Packers surrendered 421 yards in the victory — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing 350 or more yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Besides Gary, Green Bay will also be without linebacker De’Vondre Campbell who is out with a knee injury. The Packers' defense has been a disappointment this season — they rank 17th in the NFL according to the DVOA analytics. Green Bay has given up at least 23 or more points in six of their last seven games (and seven of their ten this season). 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Tennessee Titans (311) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Washington Commanders (265) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (266). THE SITUATION: Washington (4-5) had their three-game winning streak snapped last Sunday in a 20-17 loss to Minnesota as a 3-point underdog. Philadelphia (8-0) remained unbeaten after their 29-17 win at Houston as a 14-point favorite for Thursday Night Football on November 3rd.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COMMANDERS PLUS THE POINTS: If it is after Halloween, then Ron Rivera has his Washington team starting to click. The Commanders started 1-5 in 2020 before winning six of their last ten games to win the NFC East and make the playoffs. Last year, Washington started the season 2-6 before closing out the year by winning five of their last nine games. The Commanders lost four of their first five games this season — but they have won three of four and just played the one-loss Vikings well in a narrow loss last week. Washington is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record with Rivera as their head coach. It starts with the play of their defense. Even with defensive end Chase Young still out with an injury, the Commanders boast one of the best defensive lines in the league with Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne at defensive tackle and Montez Sweat at defensive end. Those are all first-round picks with both tackles products of Alabama and Sweat a former star at Mississippi State. Washington has held their last five opponents to 17.0 Points-Per-Game with no team scoring more than 21 points. They have held four of their last five opponents to no more than 324 yards — and they have held their last three opponents to 285.7 total YPG. Furthermore, the return of rookie running back Brian Robinson who missed the start of the season after being the victim of a shooting in the preseason. He ran the ball 13 times for 44 yards last week — and while those are not spectacular numbers, his presence opens up other options for the offense with Antonio Gibson who does have to then be the bell-cow running back. Additionally, Taylor Heinicke may be an upgrade at quarterback over Carson Wentz. He gives the team a spark. He is quicker to distribute the football than Wentz who takes too many sacks and melts under pressure. Heinicke is completing 63.0% of his passes for 629 passing yards in three starts with five touchdowns and three interceptions. Last year in 15 starts (16 games), he completed 65% of his passes last year while throwing for 3419 passing yards last season with 20 touchdowns and 15 interceptions while adding 313 rushing yards. Heinicke has a great connection with wide receiver Terry McClaurin who has been targeted at least eight times in each of his three starts for 16 receptions and 242 receiving yards. Heinicke is a solid game manager who avoids the trouble that buries Wentz — and this team has weapons with an energized McClaurin along with Robinson and Gibson out of the backfield. The defense will keep them in games. Washington has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a point spread win. And while they outrushed the Vikings by 81 net yards, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after outrushing their last opponent by 75 or more yards. The defensive metrics at Football Outsiders rank the Commanders as the second-best run defense in the league. Philadelphia is averaging 391.0 total YPG — but Washington has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against teams generating at least 350 YPG. The Eagles are completing 68% of their passes behind quarterback Jalen Hurts — but the Commanders have covered the point spread in 36 of their last 55 games in the second half of the season against teams completing at least 64% of their passes including eight of those last eleven circumstances. And while Philly controls the ball for 32:14 minutes per game, Washington has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams who control time of possession for at least 32 minutes per game. Philadelphia gained 360 yards in their win against the Texans last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They held Houston to just 135 passing yards in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. The Eagles are playing great — but one of their keys to success has been dominating the turnover battle which can be fickle as the season moves on. Philly has only committed three turnovers this season while enjoying a league-leading +15 net turnover margin. Now they host a Washington team that has only committed three turnovers in their last four games — and they have forced six turnovers during that stretch. The Eagles are vulnerable. They rank 27th in run defense according to the DVOA metrics. And while they are averaging 391.0 YPG, that mark has dropped by almost 50 YPG in their last three games as they have averaged only 343.0 YPG in those three contests. Philadelphia ranks only 27th in Special Teams DVOA — and the Commanders rank 7th in the league in Special Teams DVOA. Washington is allowing 5.7 Yards-Per-Play — and the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the second half of the season against teams allowing 5.6 or more YPP. Philly has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games against NFC East rivals.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Eagles’ 24-8 victory at Washington on September 25th. Wentz was under center in that game — and he was awful. Robinson had yet to be medically cleared at that point of the season. But what was most interesting in that contest was that after the Eagles scored 24 points in the second quarter, the Commanders held them scoreless in the second half. Look for an even better defensive game plan in this rematch against the heavy RPO offense that Philadelphia deploys. Defending the run-pass option requires the defensive players to embrace assignment football — and that is something that can be initially uncomfortable for players trained to attack the football. Washington did a great job in stopping the run in that game with the Eagles only gaining 72 rushing yards on 30 carries. But Hurts torched them in the passing game for 340 yards with 169 of those yards going to DeVonta Smith. Rivera and defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio will have an effective rebuttal tonight. The Commanders have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 3 straight games when playing with revenge from a loss where they did not score more than 14 points. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the Washington Commanders (265) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (266). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (263) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (264). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (5-3) has won four of their last five games after their 20-17 win at Atlanta as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (4-4) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 31-14 upset win at Los Angeles against the Rams as a 1-point underdog on October 30th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles is riddled with injuries on both sides of the ball — Joey Bosa and J.C. Jackson headline the players missing on defense while the offense is without wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. But the team is still winning with Justin Herbert finding a way to win games. Herbert has found a new reliable receiver in second-year pro Joshua Palmer who he has targeted 22 times in the last two weeks for 17 receptions and 163 receiving yards. Palmer was a third-round pick last year from Tennessee. Running back Austin Ekeler had an off day in the victory in Atlanta as he only had 71 total yards on 21 touches. But Ekeler had been doing everything for this team in the previous three weeks given the attrition at wide receiver — he has 240 rushing yards and another 169 receiving yards with four touchdowns from 65 touches in the previous three games. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road. And while they gave up 201 rushing yards to the Falcons' run-first offense, they have then covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in their last game. Despite the injuries at wide receiver, Herbert has completed at least 30 passes in three straight games. He has thrown the ball at least 40 times in each of their last three games — and the Chargers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after attempting at least 40 passes in two straight games. The defense has played better lately as they have held their last three opponents to 23.3 Points-Per-Game and 325.7 total Yards-Per-Game. Los Angeles ranks 10th in the league in defending the pass according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. The Chargers have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. San Francisco is dealing with plenty of injuries of their own — especially on defense. The 49ers' secondary is without Emmanuel Moseley and Jason Verrett for the rest of the season — but the issues on their defensive line might be even worse. San Francisco will be without defensive tackles Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw tonight (after already being without defensive tackle Maurice Hurst for the season) along with defensive end Samson Ebukam. The Niners still have Nick Bosa — but those are three starters on the defensive line they will be without which changes the dynamic for a unit that was ranked 4th in the league in run defense using DVOA. The 49ers have allowed 28.7 PPG and 347.0 YPG in their last three games — much higher than the 18.4 PPG and 285.9 total YPG they are giving up for the season. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers are allowing 25.8 PPG this season — but the 49errs have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against opponents who are allowing at least 24 PPG. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (263) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (276) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (275). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (5-1) has won three games in a row after their 24-20 win at Kansas City two Sundays ago as a 2.5-point favorite. Green Bay (3-4) has lost three games in a row after their 23-21 upset loss as a 4-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: I generally do not like to lay double-digits in the NFL (although sometimes it is appropriate). I know what happens if Green Bay covers: they finally run the ball more, they play more two RB sets with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, they use more two tight end sets and play heavy, etc). Frankly, it seems as if Aaron Rodgers is resisting these moves (see his audibles on the one-yard line in the game in London against the Giants). Head coach Matt LaFleur lacks the gravitas to overrule Rodgers’ preferences when it comes to game-planning. Rodgers is working very hard to let everyone know how his team (and the world) continue to let him down. In the meantime, he misses open receivers, freezes out receivers, and throws too many lazy passes because the play is not developing to his delicate standards. Cue: eye roll. Even if the Packers started investing in the tactics I mentioned above, I don’t think they can successfully execute them against this Bills juggernaut. Buffalo has the best-run defense in the league according to the advanced DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. The underperforming offensive line is dealing with injuries to Davi Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins questionable and likely not near 100% effectiveness. Rodgers is without his pet receivers Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb for this game who are both out with injuries. Rodgers is dealing with a thumb injury that he will make sure to grab after he makes another bad mental decision — he did not practice on Wednesday with an inexperienced group of wide receivers that he needs every moment of preparation time with nurturing. The 4.2 air yards Rodgers is averaging per completion is the lowest in the NFL. The Packers are converting just 25% of their 3rd downs in their last three games. If there was a switch that Rodgers could simply flip with this challenge, why did he not do it after the upset loss against the Giants? Or the next week in the upset loss against the Jets (when I still thought they could Get Smart)? The loss to the Commanders last week just seemed like the evidence of what this team now is. I still thought the Packers would win the NFC North even after the loss of Davante Adams — but besides the decline of the offensive line and the lack of creativity using their two excellent running backs, the defense has regressed significantly. The Packers rank 25th in the NFL in Defensive DVOA. Maybe — even after all this — Green Bay steps up if they were playing at home at Lambeau. But they are on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games. They gave up 364 total yards to the Taylor Heinicke-led Commanders last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after alloying 350 total yards in their last game. Furthermore, Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. To make matters worse: they are catching Buffalo almost completely healthy, rested, and off a bye. The Bills may have the best roster depth in the league — and only defensive tackle Spencer Brown is injured so David Quessenberry, a starter for Tennessee last season, seamlessly steps in. Buffalo is 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games after a bye week. After their statement win against Kansas City, they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up win. They are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games at home — and they are 10-1-2 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. And guess what? This is just their third game at home this season after beating their previous two opponents at home by an average score of 39.5-5.0 with the Bills generating 483.0 Yards-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: I can live with myself losing a 25* play on Buffalo tonight; however, I would be apoplectic if I followed the "sharp" play and took Green Bay, and then they got buried. That litmus test is usually effective for me. Rodgers has never been a bigger underdog in his career before tonight. He might relish in a blowout loss to let his coach and management know: “I told ya so!” (I have no idea what the “told ya” means …). 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Buffalo Bills (276) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (270) minus the points versus the New York Giants (269). THE SITUATION: Seattle (4-3) has won three of their last four games after their 37-23 upset win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday. New York (6-1) is on a four-game winning streak with their 23-17 upset win at Jacksonville last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: These are two similar teams overachieving preseason expectations. Both teams coming off multiple upset victories and now have resumes that include them getting outgained in yardage on the season. I suspect it is the Giants’ bubble that gets burst with the challenging trip out west to play in Lumen Field and their “12th man” with the fans. All six of the Giants’ victories have been by one scoring possession including near-miracle finishes against Tennessee, Green Bay, and Baltimore. Rookie head coach Brian Daboll is doing a fantastic job in game managing — and he has Daniel Jones operating as a junior Josh Allen. But the offense lacks a vertical passing threat. After the season-ending injury to Sterling Shepard, the trade to Kadarius Toney earlier this week, and Kenny Golladay in the dog house, the Giants starting wide receivers are Darius Slayton and rookie slot receiver Wan’Dale Robinson. Rookie tight end Daniel Bollinger is out with an injury for this game. The Giants' offensive line will also be missing rookie right tackle, Evan Neal, along with Ben Bredesen. New York is last in the NFL with only seven pass plays of more than 20 yards — the second-lowest mark in the league is then 14 pass plays of 20 or more yards. But the biggest difference between these two teams is on defense. Despite defensive coordinator Don Martindale’s blitz-heavy clever schemes, the Giants rank 29th in the NFL in Football Outsiders’ Defensive DVOA metrics. They rank 30th in Run Defense using those metrics — and they are last in the league by allowing 5.7 Yards-Per-Carry. The Pass Defense ranks 26th in DVOA — and they have registered only one interception this season. The defensive woes start on first down where they are allowing 6.7 Yards-Per-Carry and 8.9 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. New York has registered three straight upsets with their last two wins against the Ravens and Jaguars finishing Under the Total — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after playing two straight Unders. Seattle has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 home games after playing a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. The Seahawks may have the Offensive Rookie of the Year in Kenneth Walker who offers the team an explosive weapon in the backfield since he took over as the bell-cow back after the injury to Rashaad Penny. Walker helped Seattle run for 214 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last contest. Quarterback Geno Smith is poised to win the Comeback Player of the Year award as now a season-veteran who has learned his craft after playing behind Philip Rivers and Russell Wilson for years. Talent was never the issue for this former first-round draft pick. Offensive coordinator Shane Waldron has done a great job with him. On first downs, Smith is completing 81.5% of his passes while averaging 8.5 Yards-Per-Attempt. On third downs needing at least seven yards, he has completed 17 of 22 passes (77.3%). After both D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett were on the injured list this week, it appears both will take the field today. The Seahawks rank 3rd in the NFL in Offensive DVOA. On defense, they are middle of the road — ranking 19th in Defensive DVOA and 17th against the run (both marks higher than the Giants). Overall, Seattle ranks 7th in overall DVOA versus New York ranking 14th (for what that is worth).    

FINAL TAKE: Home field should make the difference in this game where the Seahawks have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. 25* NFC Favorite of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (270) minus the points versus the New York Giants (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.     

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (102) minus (or plus) the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (101). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (3-4) has lost four of their last five games after their 21-3 upset loss at Carolina as a 13-point favorite on Sunday. Baltimore (4-3) has won two of their last three games with their 23-20 win against Cleveland as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: What is going on with Tampa Bay — and can they pick themselves off the mat at this point? They have been ravaged by injuries on both sides of the ball. The offensive line remains a mess and the defensive backfield is banged up — but quarterback Tom Brady at least has Mike Evans and Chris Godwin back. The team misses left guard Ali Marpet who retired in the offseason and linebacker Jason Pierre-Paul who signed with the Ravens as a free agent. The quality of the roster has declined since their Super Bowl victory in 2020. Brady seems distracted with his divorce and desire to attend Robert Kraft weddings. Despite their losing record, the analytics at Football Outsiders still rank Tampa Bay as the 8th-best team in their overall DVOA ratings. They are outgaining their opponents by +22.5 net Yards-Per-Game. I think much of what is going on is simply malaise. The team started strong — despite the injuries — with victories at Dallas and New Orleans. They lost a low-scoring game at home to Green Bay. They lost at home to Kansas City after falling behind the eight-ball early by fumbling the opening kickoff. They rebounded by beating a feisty Atlanta team at home, raising their record to 3-2. They then traveled to Pittsburgh with their rookie quarterback as a 9.5-point favorite — two days after Brady attends the Kraft wedding — and they play flat in a 16-10 upset loss. They stay on the road to play at Carolina as a nearly two-touchdown favorite against a tanking Panthers team who just traded Christian McCaffrey and who were using P.J. Walker at quarterback — and they lacked energy in that embarrassing loss. Evans dropped an early touchdown pass that might have changed the tone of that game. Now after two bad upset losses, I suspect the Buccaneers rally around each other on the short week with the challenge of hosting a good Ravens team. I like how Brady is responding to the adversity by showing positive leadership toward his teammates. He does not show dramatic signs of decline like some of the other older guard of quarterbacks. He is completing 66.9% of his passes while averaging 277.4 passing YPG. His eight touchdown passes are low — but he has only thrown one interception this season. The Tampa Bay passing attack ranks 10th in the Football Outsiders DVOA rankings. So, I think the Buccaneers can continue their team trend of covering the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after getting upset on the road as a favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss as a road favorite. They are also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. The Bucs have lost two of their three games at home — but they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games at home. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The defense remains stout — ranking 5th in Defensive DVOA with top-11 marks in run defense and pass defense. In their last three games, they have held their opponents to 18.7 PPG and 293.3 total YPG. Baltimore is dealing with attrition as well with defensive end Calais Campbell out with an illness and several other starters questionable going into tonight. Perhaps left tackle Ronnie Stanley along with both starting cornerbacks Marlon Humphries and Marcus Peters all play tonight — but how effective will they be with their injuries and can they play the entire game? The Ravens outlasted the Browns despite getting outgained by a 336 to 254 yardage margin. They are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a win at home. Baltimore is only one of two teams to hold double-digit leads in all their games — but why have they blown those big leads in three of their games? They are getting outgained by -20.1 net YPG. The Ravens rank 23rd in run defense by DVOA — so perhaps this is the opponent that Tampa Bay can get Leonard Fournette going with their ground game. Baltimore has allowed four of their last five opponents to rush for at least 101 yards. The Ravens have not scored more than 23 points in four straight games — and they are averaging only 328.3 total YPG in their last three contests. The passing game has not been as effective with the team failing to gain more than 195 yards in the air in four straight games. Statistically, there was a correlation between Lamar Jackson putting up bigger numbers with Rashod Bateman being healthy and on the field. Bateman was considered the key piece for the offense to move on from Marquise Brown who they traded to Arizona. But Bateman has struggled with drops before missing two games with an injury. He returned in the Browns game and caught four balls for 40 yards — but Jackson only had 120 passing yards in the game. The Ravens have played three of their last four games at home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in October. Look for Brady and company to find a way to win this critical game for them. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month is with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (102) minus (or plus) the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (455) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (456). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (3-2-1) has won three of their last four games after their 34-27 win against Jacksonville as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Tennessee (3-2) returns from their bye week on a three-game winning streak after their 21-17 victory at Washington two weeks ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: Indianapolis gets back running back Jonathan Taylor for this game to offer some balance for this Colts offense — and that should put quarterback Matt Ryan in an even better position to succeed. After a slow start to the season behind a struggling offensive line, head coach Frank Reich and the veteran Super Bowl quarterback have put things together in the passing game. Ryan completed 42 of 58 passes for 389 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions in the win against the Jaguars. The emergence of rookie wide receiver Alec Pierce has provided Ryan with a viable receiving option to complement Michael Pittman. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win against a divisional rival. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games after winning two of their last three games. And while they ran the ball only 16 times for 45 yards last week, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not rushing for more than 90 yards — and getting Taylor back will be a boon for this offense. The Colts' defense did hold the Jags to just 136 passing yards last week — and they are 15-4-2 ATS in their last 21 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. Indy ranks 10th in the NFL by allowing only 323.7 Yards-Per-Game — and they are third in the league in 3rd Down defense. They have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games as an underdog. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in October. The Colts are dealing with some injuries with Shaq Leonard not ready to return to linebacker this afternoon and defensive end Kwity Paye injured — but the Titans have their share of missing starters as well. Left tackle Taylor Lewan and top linebacker Harold Landry III are out the year with injuries. Linebacker Zach Cunningham and right guard Nate Davis are also out for today’s game. The Titans gained only 241 yards in their win against the Commanders — and they got outgained by -144 net yards after surrendering 385 total yards to Washington two weeks ago. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing 350 or more yards in their last contest. The draft day trade of wide receiver A.J. Brown has left the offense too one-dimensional. The team signed Robert Woods as a free agent and drafted rookie Treylon Burks from Arkansas — but he is injured and out for today’s game. Ryan Tannehill completed 15 of 25 passes against the Commanders for only 181 yards. Their 136 net passing yards (after sacks) was their third-lowest passing yardage effort this season. They are an unreliable favorite who have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games laying up to three points. Despite their winning record, they are getting outscored by -4.2 Points-Per-Game and getting outgained by -112.6 YPG  due to an anemic offense gaining only 278.2 YPG. They only generate 25.4 yards per drive on offense while surrendering 37.4 yards per drive — and that -11.75 net yardage difference per drive is last in the league. Indianapolis, on the other hand, has outgained their opponents by +26 net YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans have won their last four games against the Colts after their 24-17 win at Lucas Oil Stadium as a 4-point underdog on October 2nd. But Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against Tennessee at their Nissan Stadium. 25* AFC South Game of the Month with the Indianapolis Colts (455) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (303) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (304). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (2-4) has lost four of their last five games after their 30-26 loss to Cincinnati as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. Arizona (2-4) has lost two in a row after their 19-9 upset loss at Seattle as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS PLUS THE POINTS: New Orleans has lost four of their six games despite outgaining their opponents by +39.5 net Yards-Per-Game this season. Three of their four losses were decided by one-scoring possession. They outgained the Bengals last week by a 399 to 348 yardage margin in the loss. Turnovers have been a problem — with many of them coming from interceptions from Jameis Winston. The Saints’ special teams are a mess as well with them ranking 31st in the DVOA rankings of special teams units at Football Outsiders. But they play a Cardinals team that ranks just 29th in special teams. And while head coach Dennis Allen has not named a starting quarterback, reports indicate that he will likely tap Andy Dalton as his starter once again this week with Winston not 100% with a back and ankle injury that kept him limited in practice on this short week. Dalton has thrown only one interception in three games this season with a 1.2% interception rate for his 82 passes. That is what this Saints team needs right now — play smart, lean on their defense, and avoid mistakes. They are ravaged with injuries (but so are the Cardinals). Wide receivers Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry are out along with tight end Andrew Trainman. Starting left guard Andrus Peat is also out. Winston would not have the skill players he would need to take advantage of his arm strength while perhaps needing to be savvier given the offensive line issues. Dalton is the better option on a short week — and he did work with the starting offense on Tuesday. Furthermore, offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael is going a nice job incorporating Taysom Hill as a weapon at quarterback or running back to throw off opposing defenses — something this Cardinals team will be susceptible to on a short week. The Saints are also without cornerback Marshon Lattimore. The good news is that rookie wide receiver Chris Olave is expected to play. Even better news: running back Alvin Kamara is heating up with 52 touches in the last two games. New Orleans ranks second in the league in Rushing DVOA according to Football Outsiders. The Saints have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss at home. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing two of their last three games. They have also covered the point spread in 37 of their last 58 games on the road after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. They are outgaining their opponents by +32.0 net YPG in their three road games — and they have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 54 games on the road. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after an upset loss as a road favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a double-digit loss as a road favorite. The injury list for the Cardinals is even worse than the Saints for this game on a short week. Wide receiver Marquise Brown is out for at least a month with a foot injury. Quarterback Kyler Murray does get DeAndre Hopkins back from his six-game suspension — but that is probably not a net-plus switch. Arizona is tied for last in the league by averaging only 4.1 air yards per completion — and Brown is more of a deep threat than Hopkins is at this point in his career. Running back James Conner is questionable with a rib injury. Additionally, the offensive line is hit hard with two starters out: left guard Justin Pugh is out the season with a knee, and center Rodney Hudson is out tonight. These issues on the offensive line are one of the reasons why Murray is struggling — but he does seem to be too often bailout out of the pocket and relying on his physical talent which can generate amazing highlight reels while not being the optimal route for efficiency on offense. The Cardinals are generating 19.0 PPG along with 346.0 YPG — and they rank 26th in Offensive DVOA and 26th in the passing game specifically which is an indictment of both Murray and head coach Kliff Kingsbury. If Kingsbury follows through with his consideration of giving up play-calling duties, then I am not sure what is left for the guy who had a losing record at Texas Tech before falling forward with this gig after getting sacked by his alma mater. The injuries on defense are also significant with linebacker Dennis Gardeck out and cornerback Trayvon Muller and safety Jalen Thompson questionable. The Cardinals rank 20th in Defensive DVOA — and they are allowing 28.0 PPG and 394.7 YPG in their three home games where they are getting outscored by -11.3 PPG. Arizona is winless in their three home games this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games at home when favored.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against Arizona. The Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. After a 7-0 start last season, Arizona has lost 11 of their last 17 games with everything seeming to be moving in the wrong direction. In an expected close game, I find Dalton, Kamara, and the Saints' defense along with Dennis Allen as more reliable. 25* NFC Game of the Month with New Orleans Saints (303) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (275) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (276). THE SITUATION: Denver (2-3) has lost two games in a row after their 12-9 loss in overtime as a 3-point favorite two Thursdays ago on October 6th. Los Angeles (3-2) has won two games in a row after their 30-28 win at Cleveland as a 1-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: I will be holding my nose taking this Denver team — but I suspect we will see an inspired effort from a desperate team who comes off the longest possible break in-between games save for the bye weeks. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after playing on Thursday in their last game. Denver did outgain the Colts by a 375 to 306 margin. Russell Wilson has been a big disappointment this season which was a surprise to me — but while I am skeptical of his long-term potential, he is still a savvy veteran who knows he needs to step it up. He claims some of his struggles are due to an arm injury — and he did get a shot in his right lat last week so perhaps he will have more zip again on his long ball. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after a loss by three points or less. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Denver is playing better on defense than I expected. They were third in the league last year by allowing 18.9 Points-Per-Game — but I thought that number was misleading by the ball-control offense under head coach Vic Fangio. But the Broncos are allowing just 16.0 PPG this year while limiting their opponents to 289.0 total Yards-Per-Game. Furthermore, while ranking just 20th in the defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders last season, they currently sit second in the league in those analytics this year. Denver has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games on the road as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in two straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Chargers gained 465 total yards against the Browns with 238 of those yards on the ground. But this team has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Los Angeles has scored at least 30 points in their last two games while playing three straight Overs. But they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after playing three straight Overs. This team is dealing with several crushing injuries. Joey Bosa is on injured reserve hurting the defense that is allowing 28.5 PPG at home. Left tackle Rashawn Slater is out the year with a biceps injury. Wide receiver Keenan Allen was declared out for tonight as he recovers from a hamstring injury that has kept him out so far this season.

FINAL TAKE: Home teams at SoFi Stadium do not enjoy much of a home-field advantage — the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Los Angeles is an unreliable favorite — they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. Look for this divisional rivalry to be a close game. 25* AFC West Game of the Month is with the Denver Broncos (275) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (274) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (273). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (5-0) remained the lone unbeaten team this week with their 20-17 victory at Arizona as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Dallas (4-1) has won four in a row after their 22-10 upset win at Los Angeles against the Rams as a 5.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: The laptops love this Philadelphia team. The DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders rank them as the second-best team in the league behind Buffalo. They rank 5th in both offensive DVOA and defensive DVOA according to their metrics. They enjoy the best turnover ratio in the NFL by a mile — their 11 takeaways are the most in the league and their two giveaways are the fewest in the league. Their RPO-heavy offense catches most teams off-guard while exposing defensive rosters designed to stop pass-heavy offenses using three or more wide receivers. They lead the NFL by controlling the time of possession for 33:53 minutes per game. But they combine a ball-control offense with explosiveness — they lead the league with 44 “Big Plays” (a rushing gain of 12 or more yards or a passing gain of 16 or more yards). They are outscoring their opponents by +9.4 Points-Per-Game and outgaining them by +125.4 net Yards-Per-Game. I am anxious to see the Eagles play against teams that made deep playoff runs last year — but they host a division rival with a backup quarterback tonight. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a narrow win by three points or less. They return home where they have outgained their opponents by +202.0 net YPG this year. Philadelphia is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Dallas only gained 239 total yards last week against the Rams — and they were outgained by -84 net yards in pulling off that upset victory. A +3 net turnover margin including a defensive touchdown played a big role in that win against the defending Super Bowl champions who are facing an existential crisis with the injuries on their offensive line. Dallas has been very fortunate with their schedule after looking hapless in their opening game at Tampa Bay where they only scored a field goal. They got Cincinnati the next week who was dealing with offensive line cohesion issues along with Joe Burrow still rusty after his appendectomy limited his preseason work — and the Bengals almost rallied to win in the second half. They then got the New York Giants, with all due respect to the job Brian Daboll is doing in his first year with that dysfunctional organization. That win was followed up with a game against Washington and Carson Wentz who melts under defensive pressure (and Dallas’ pass rush is elite). This will be the Cowboys’ third game on the road in the last four weeks — a stiff challenge particularly for backup quarterback Cooper Rush. While the faux quarterback controversy provides national headlines for owner Jerry Jones, remember that general manager Jones cut Rush in late August before reclaiming him a day later when the entire league passed on him. Rush has benefited from playing with a lead for almost his entire stint since Dak Prescott got injured. He will likely have to play from behind tonight. The Cowboys rank 29th in the league in third-down offense with Rush under center. To compound the matter, he split time this week in practice with Prescott who flirted with playing in this game. The Dallas defense has helped them play two straight Unders — but the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 48 road games after playing two straight Unders.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia will have revenge on their mind against this Dallas team that toasted them 41-21 and then 51-26 in their two meetings last season. Admittedly, that 51-26 loss in Week 17 was against an Eagles team resting key starters with their wildcard game already set. Still, surrendering 92 points and losing by 45 combined points has certainly been a strong point of emphasis all offseason. If Philly wants to make a deep playoff run, then taking care of the Cowboys is high on their agenda. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the Philadelphia Eagles (274) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (273). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (260) minus the points versus the New York Jets (259). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (3-2) looks to rebound from a 27-22 upset loss to the New York Giants as an 8.5-point favorite in London last Sunday. New York (3-2) pulled off their second-straight upset victory with a 40-17 upset win against Miami as a 3-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Green Bay controlled most of their game with the Giants — they held a 20-10 lead at halftime — but sleepwalked through the second half overconfident that they would always find a way to pull the game out against Daniel Jones. But Aaron Rodgers audibled out of likely successful running plays at the goal line to telegraph his little slant throw that everyone knows he likes — and the Giants’ defense successfully batted the last pass down to steal the game. Players called out Rodgers afterward — and maybe what this team needs is some internal tension to raise the level of urgency. As it is, Rodgers has led the Packers to nine straight wins after losing their last game with the average winning margin being by more than 14 points — and he has nine touchdown passes without an interception in those nine games. Green Bay has been resilient when facing (regular season) adversity — they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after a straight-up loss and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a point spread loss. The Packers have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a narrow loss by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss. Returning home to Lambeau Field will make a big difference where Green Bay has a 24-3 record since the beginning of the 2019 season. Rodgers’ personal record as the starter at Lambeau is 23-1 in his last 24 with 15 straight wins. The Packers have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 straight home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games when laying 7.5 to 14 points. New York has pulled off two straight upset wins after stunning Pittsburgh on the road two weeks ago. We had the Steelers in that game — Mitch Trubisky gets benched at halftime for Kenny Pickett and the Pittsburgh run defense collapsed late in that game when the Jets seemed satisfied to just burn time and kick a field goal to force overtime. The fortunate breaks continued last week with Teddy Bridgewater getting injured for the Dolphins in his first series of the game leaving Miami to have to play 7th-round draft pick, Skylar Thompson, at quarterback after not practicing with the first-team offense all week. But remember that it was still a 19-17 game five minutes into the fourth quarter before mistakes by Thompson contributed to the Jets scoring three late touchdowns to produce a final score that was not indicative of how close the game was. New York has skated by facing some of the least threatening quarterbacks in the league: Jacoby Brissett, Trubisky/Pickett, Bridgewater/Thompson. In their two games against Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow, the Jets’ defense has surrendered six touchdown passes with only one interception. The Jets should get exposed in this one. As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset win by three or more touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. Having had action against the Jets the last two weeks, I have seen some of the sketchy plays that second-year quarterback Zach Wilson has made that do not translate into the box score. He benefited from facing an injury-depleted Dolphins secondary — but the assignment is much tougher against this angry Packers defense. New York is still banged up at tackle having to rely on fourth and fifth stringers. Wilson has a 3-6 record in his nine career starts on the road. The Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 road games against teams wit ha winning record at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Execution should lead to the Packers pulling away in this one. The Jets rank 28th in 3rd Down Defense even with that rogue's gallery of quarterbacks they have played in three of their games — and here comes Rodgers with a chip on his shoulder after last week. The Green Bay defense has held their opponents to converting just 3 of 23 third downs of seven or more yards.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. This is a “relax” game for Rodgers against this Jets’ team playing over their head. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Green Bay Packers (260) minus the points versus the New York Jets (259). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (477) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (478). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (2-2) won their second-straight game with their 27-15 victory against Miami as a 4-point favorite two Thursdays ago. Baltimore (2-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 23-20 loss to Buffalo as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bengals have addressed the sack issues that plagued them in their opening two games. After getting sacked an unsustainable 13 times in their first two games, Joe Burrow has only been sacked three times in his last two games for just 20 yards. Cincinnati invested heavily to upgrade their offensive line in the offseason by bringing in center Ted Karras from New England, right guard Alex Cappa from Tampa Bay, and right tackle La’El Collins from Dallas. It may have taken some time after not enough work in the preseason for this group to start developing cohesion. But the other factor was that Burrow was simply holding on to the ball too long looking for his dynamic win receivers to get open. He has done a better job over the last two games in getting the ball out faster. Don’t underestimate the impact of Burrow’s appendectomy in August in slowing down his getting up to speed. But now over his last three games, Burrow has six touchdown passes and no interceptions while posting a 107 Passer Rating. He completed 20 of 31 passes for 287 yards last week — and Cincy has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a game where they gained at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Now Burrow plays a limping Ravens’ pass defense that he torched for over 900 passing yards against in his two games against them last year. Baltimore is last in the NFL this season by surrendering 315 Yards-Per-Game. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. They gained 371 yards against the Dolphins last week — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bengals did give up 378 yards to Miami in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after allowing 375 or more yards in their last contest. Despite that yardage allowed, Cincinnati has been impressive on defense this season. They rank 8th in the league by holding their opponents to just 327.5 total Yards-Per-Game — and the five touchdowns they have conceded is the second-fewest in the NFL. The Bengals are 4th in the NFL by holding their opponents to 86 rushing YPG — and they are 4th in the league in 3rd Down defense. They are holding their opponents to just 17.5 PPG. Cincinnati goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games as an underdog getting up to seven points. Baltimore only gained 295 total yards last week in a showdown with the Bills that many observers expected to be a scoring fest. The Ravens miss Marquise Brown at wide receiver who now plays for Arizona — he accounted for 91 receptions and 1008 yards last year. Rashod Bateman drops too many passes and has not been able to emerge as a legitimate number-one option. The passing attack now runs almost exclusively through tight end Mark Andrews — but the lack of threatening options on the outside is one of the reasons why the Ravens are averaging only 217 passing YPG. Baltimore has lost five straight games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored by up to seven points. The Ravens are also 11-27-2 ATS in their last 40 games in October. As seemingly always, injuries have hit this team hard. Baltimore has a long list of players out impacting their depth — and starting left tackle Ronnie Stanley and Bateman are out for tonight’s game. On defense, defensive tackle Michael Pierce is out and cornerback Marcus Peters is questionable.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals scored 41 points in both their victories against the Ravens last year. While Baltimore has been planning for revenge all off-season, Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games against AFC opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against AFC North rivals. The Bengals have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in Baltimore against the Ravens. In Burrow, I Trust -- he should keep this game close (even if he does not lead his team to victory). 25* AFC North Game of the Month with the Cincinnati Bengals (477) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (280) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (279). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (1-2) looks to bounce back from an 11-10 upset loss at Denver as a 1.5-point favorite last Sunday night. Los Angeles (2-1) has won two in a row after their 20-12 win at Arizona as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: San Francisco was held back last week by a -3 net turnover margin on the road against the Broncos. Another full week of practice should help Jimmy Garoppolo get back up to speed with the offense after not even working with his teammates in the preseason after Trey Lance was given the starting quarterback job. He was solid last week by completing 18 of 29 passes for 211 yards with a touchdown and an interception — but some areas could be cleaned up. The 49ers have rebounded to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 31 games after suffering an upset loss on the road as the favorite. Additionally, San Francisco has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last contest. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at Levi’s Stadium. Despite their losing record, San Francisco remains a very good team on both sides of the ball. They lead the NFL with only two three-and-out drives all season. On defense, they are the only team in the league to be holding their opponents to under 4.0 Yards-Per-Play. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow NFC West rivals. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after winning two games in a row. The Rams did allow the Cardinals to gain 365 yards in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after giving up at least 350 yards in their last contest. And while they averaged 7.5 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 6.5 YPP in their last contest. The reigning Super Bowl champions have been sloppy to start the season — they have seven giveaways in their three games. Matthew Stafford has been the main culprit with five interceptions already — and this comes off a year where he threw 17 interceptions which were tied for the most in the NFL (and remember he had four pick-sixes last year). The injuries are mounting up for the Rams as well. They will be missing two starting offensive linemen in left guard David Edwards and center Brian Allen — and this group had already taken a big step back with the retirement of left tackle Andrew Whitworth in the offseason. The defense is down several defensive backs including starting cornerback Troy Hill. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco swept the two regular-season meetings between these two teams — but they will be motivated to avenge their 20-17 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams in the NFC Championship Game. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against the Niners — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at San Francisco. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games on Monday Night Football. 25* NFC West Game of the Month with the San Francisco 49ers (280) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (279). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (264) minus the points versus the New York Jets (263). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (1-2) has lost two games in a row after their 29-17 loss at Cleveland as a 3.5-point underdog on Thursday, September 22nd. New York (1-2) looks to rebound from their 27-12 loss at home to Cincinnati as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS:                                    Pittsburgh was only on the field for 23:51 minutes last week against the Browns for that Thursday Night Football game — and that game was closer than the final score indicated with Cleveland scoring a final touchdown on a fumble recovery that they scooped into the end zone. The Steelers actually had a 14-13 lead at halftime. Now after pulling off their Week One upset at Cincinnati, Pittsburgh needs this game to even their record at 2-2. With the extra days off from last week to rest and prepare for this contest, expect a spirited effort from head coach Mike Tomlin’s group. The Steelers have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after a double-digit loss to a fellow AFC North rival. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Mitchell Trubisky completed 20 of 32 passes for 207 yards in the loss with no interceptions. What was encouraging for Pittsburgh in this game is that he threw the ball downfield a bit more. While I am expecting Trubisky to embark on a Hall of Fame career anytime soon, this is a quarterback with a career 30-23 record as a starter. Frankly, I worry more about offensive coordinator Matt Canada — the Steelers need to get their talented receiving corps more involved in the game and trust Trubisky (something Tomlin called on after their loss to New England in Week Two). Now after that short week, I expect a better offensive plan — and I also expect Pittsburgh to lean into deploying Trubisky’s mobility. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in October under Tomlin. They are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games at home at the newly renamed Acrisure Stadium. The Jets get second-year quarterback Zach Wilson back under center after he was out for about six weeks with the knee he injured early in the preseason. In the short-term, New York is swallowing a downgrade at quarterback going from the veteran Joe Flacco to Wilson — especially since the former BYU quarterback has been not practicing after not playing in the preseason. This situation is compounded by the decimation this team has already faced with injuries on their offensive line. The Jets are already on their fifth and sixth-string offensive tackles (in a league where depth at tackle is already lacking — for the good teams). Wilson was raw last year after not playing in a pro-style offense in college. His 69.7 Passer Rating was the worst in the NFL. He played better late in the season — but he needed the preseason to continue his development. He still has issues with his mechanics, footwork, decision-making, accuracy, handling the pass-rush, and his decision-making. Did I forget anything? I understand why the Jets are putting him out there even with their significant issues at offensive line, they need to give him time to grow — but if they wanted to win games in the short-term, the veteran Flacco would be out there, even with his limitations in his 15th season. Are the Jets going to ask Wilson to throw the ball 52 times as they did with Flacco last week? That is a recipe for a disaster — the kid is going to make mistakes. Wilson was 3-10 as a starter last year with only nine touchdown passes and 11 interceptions. He was sacked 44 times behind a better offensive line — he got sacked every 9.7 pass attempts. New York has thrown the ball at least 45 times in each of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games after attempting at least 40 passes in two straight contests. The Jets are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games as an underdog. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE:  The Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at Pittsburgh. New York continues their rebuild after 11 straight seasons not making the playoffs versus a Steelers team that has not had a losing season under Tomlin. Maybe Wilson improves this season — but on the road with that offensive line after missing most of the preseason, it is going to be bumpy. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (264) minus the points versus the New York Jets (263). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (102) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (101). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (1-2) comes off a 27-12 victory in New York against the Jets as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. Miami (3-0) remained undefeated this season after their 21-19 upset victory at home against Buffalo as a 4-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS: Miami comes off the emotional high of beating the Bills just four days ago — and they are ripe for a letdown for this game on the road being played on a short week. It’s rookie head coach Mike McDaniel’s first game preparing his team to play on a short week for Thursday Night Football. Even more challenging is that the defense was on the field for a whopping 90 plays in the Miami heat. If the Dolphins were playing on Sunday, then the defensive players would probably not even be practicing on Thursday — but now they are playing another game on this quick turnaround. As it is, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 31 games after upsetting a fellow AFC East rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after upsetting a division rival as a home underdog. With the Dolphins' offense only on the field for 19:20 minutes of that game, they got outgained by the Bills by a 497 to 212 yardage margin — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 44 games on the road after getting outgained by 100 or more yards in their last game. Despite their 3-0 record, Miami is only generating 355.3 total Yards-Per-Game — and they have only gained more than 307 yards in one of their games. They are surrendering a whopping 413.7 total YPG — more than 76 YPG than they did last season when they ranked 15th in the NFL. The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 45 games after allowing at least 400 YPG in their last three games including failing to cover the point spread just once in the last five circumstances when those conditions applied. Tua Tagovailoa has played great in the McDaniel offense getting the ball out to his playmakers — but he is far from 100% for this game dealing with a back and ankle injury. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49-point range. Cincinnati was flat against Pittsburgh in their opening game before falling behind at halftime against Dallas by a 17-3 score in their second game. But in their last six quarters, they have looked like the team that reached the Super Bowl by outscoring their opponents by a 41-15 margin. They should build off their momentum from their victory last week as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Bengals have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after losing two of their last three games. And while their game with the Jets finished Under the 45.5 point Total, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after playing an Under in their last game. Despite Joe Burrow not playing in the preseason as he recovered from his appendectomy and despite the continuing problem with sacks with Burrow getting mauled for 13 sacks in the first two games of the season, this team would still be 3-0 if not losing both of their first two games on the final play of the game. Burrow only took two sacks last week — and he has four touchdown passes and no interceptions in his last two games. He completed 23 of 36 passes last week for 275 yards — and Cincy has covered the points spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. The Bengals are outscoring and outgaining their opponents this year — and their defense has played well by allowing just 18.3 PPG and 310.7 total YPG. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 7 straight games against teams with a winning record. They enjoy a significant situational edge against a Dolphins team coming off an emotional high but likely to be gassed by the second half tonight. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Cincinnati Bengals (102) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (489) plus the point(s) versus the New York Giants (490). THE SITUATION: Dallas (1-1) looks to build off their 20-17 upset victory against Cincinnati as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. New York (2-0) pulled off their second-straight upset win in a 19-16 victory at home against Carolina as a 1-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINT(S): New York opened their season with a 21-20 upset win at Tennessee in a game when they stole the game by converting a late 2-point conversion. But both of their wins have been by a combined four points. They were outgained by a 275 to 265 margin in yardage last week against the Panthers despite being on offense for 35:57 minutes of that game. The Giants averaged a meager 3.96 Yards-Per-Play last week. They only scored six points in the first half against Carolina after getting shutout in the first half against the Titans. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not scoring more than seven points in the first half in two straight games. Additionally, the Giants have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win. They return home where they are just 10-22-1 ATS in their last 33 games at MetLife Stadium. New York has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow NFC East opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42-point range. Dallas outgained the Bengals last week by a 337 to 254 yardage margin despite only having their offense on the field for 26:12 minutes of that game. While I am not buying the hype from the owner/general manager Jerry Jones about how good Cooper Rush is, it is hard to deny that he has been steady when given the opportunity to play under center for this team. He completed 19 of 31 passes for 235 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. In his five games last year which included one start, he completed 30 of 47 passes for 422 yards with three touchdown passes and only one interception. Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore did a good job of helping to put Rush into a position to succeed by getting the ball to playmakers. Dallas has a great rushing combination in Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. The Cowboys go on the road for the first time this season — but they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games away from home. Furthermore, Dallas has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games against NFC East rivals — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in September. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 appearances on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Rookie head coach Brian Daboll has done a nice job in motivating his team and getting them to believe in themselves — but I expect the bubble to burst tonight against a team with a better overall roster. Dallas has won nine of their last ten meetings with the Giants. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against them — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against them in the Meadowlands. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (489) plus the point(s) versus the New York Giants (490). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (472) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (471). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (0-1-1) looks to rebound from their 24-0 upset loss at Jacksonville as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (2-0) returns to action after their 27-24 win against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 4-point favorite for Thursday Night Football last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: Indianapolis has been a train wreck so far this season. They entered the fourth quarter of their opening game at Houston trailing by a 20-3 score before scoring 17 points in the fourth quarter to force overtime — but they fired their kicker when he failed to convert the potential game-winning kick in that game as they settled for the tie (ie: half-win). The Colts then managed only 218 yards in getting shutout last week against the Jaguars. Their -3 net turnover margin did not help their cause last week. All of the sudden, Matt Ryan looks old — he has four interceptions and been involved with five fumbles. Injuries have played a role with linebacker Shaquille Leonard out and the wide receiver corps depleted last week. The good news for head coach Frank Reich is that he expects both Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce to return to action after being out last week — so getting these targets back will help Ryan. While the 37-year-old’s arm strength has declined, he did still complete 67.0% of his passes last year for 3968 yards for a bad Atlanta team. After getting shutout last week, this is a “put-up or shut-up” game for this team. Look for the Colts to play their best game of the season against the Chiefs. This remains a team that was 9-8 last year while outscoring their opponents by +5.8 Points-Per-Game. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss to an AFC South rival. Additionally, the Colts have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread setback. Furthermore, Indy is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. This team needs to show more urgency earlier in the game to not dig themselves a hole and require them to abandon Jonathan Taylor and their running game. The Colts only rushed for 54 yards last week — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not rushing for at least 90 yards in their last game. After playing the first two games of the season on the road, Indianapolis returns home for their first game of the year at Lucas Oil Stadium where they are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Colts have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 home games when an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Kansas City was in danger of getting upset at home last week before they picked off a Justin Herbert pass at the goal line and returned it 99 yards for the game-winning touchdown. That was a 14-point swing. The Chiefs got outgained, 401-319, in the victory. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a narrow win by a field goal or less at home. And while Kansas City has scored 71 combined points in their first two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. I don’t have many bad things to say about the Chiefs — as I expected, Patrick Mahomes is doing a great job spreading the ball around in the post-Tyreek Hill era. But stopping the run can be an issue for this team — they ranked 21st in the league by allowing 117.6 rushing YPG last year. The defense will be without linebacker Willie Gay for this game as he serves out a suspension. Defensive end Mike Danna did not practice on Thursday and is questionable to play with a calf — and he is one of the team’s best run defenders. Running teams like the Colts are the type of team that can give Kansas City problems. The Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. They shave also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in September.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City just wants to leave Indianapolis with the win rather than cover the point spread — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a losing record. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games against teams with a winning record. The Colts have looked as bad as any team in the league in the first two weeks — but they still may have the best roster in the AFC South and this is an urgent situation for them. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the Indianapolis Colts (472) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (275) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (276). THE SITUATION: New England (0-1) looks to rebound from their 20-7 loss in Miami to the Dolphins as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Pittsburgh (1-0) comes off a 23-20 upset victory in overtime at Cincinnati as a 7.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: New England fell behind early and went into halftime trailing by a 17-0 score. One of those Dolphins’ touchdowns came from a fumble recovery on the Patriots' 2-yard line that they scooped a returned into the end zone. New England had a -3 net turnover margin. It was a disappointing effort — and the critics of Bill Belichick were quick to use this first game as evidence that he is past his prime. Look, I’m not a fan of Matt Patricia — but his impact as the team’s offensive coordinator is overblown. Belichick started as a wide receiver’s coach in the 70s. Los Angeles Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris coached the offensive side of the ball when on the Atlanta Falcons’ staff during the Dan Quinn era. Coaches like Belichick simply think that “coaching is coaching” — and that a defensive coach moving to the other side of the ball is akin to a prosecutor moving into private practice as a defense attorney. It is simply too early to pass judgment — especially when Belichick has declared on many occasions that he does not finish the installation of the offense each season until the end of September. So, let’s not overreact. New England has often struggled when playing at Miami. Tom Brady lost ten of his eighteen starts on the road against the Dolphins when playing for the Patriots. In those ten losses, New England scored just 17.5 Points-Per-Game and averaged 293.5 total Yards-Per-Game. In Brady’s trip to Miami in 2006, the Dolphins shut him out while holding him to 189 total yards. For the record, the Patriots finished 12-4 that season before losing to Peyton Manning’s Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Championship Game. New England only ran the ball 22 times against the Dolphins — and the strength of this team will be them running the ball and leaning on their outstanding defense. The Patriots were second in the league by allowing 17.8 PPG. Belichick is not receiving enough credit for leading his team into the playoffs last year with a rookie quarterback. They outscored their opponents by +9.4 PPG with them generating 27.2 PPG and ranking 15th in the NFL by averaging 353.4 total YPG. It is telling that despite all the naysayers about this team this week, the bookies still list New England as the road favorite for this game. The Patriots have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after a double-digit loss to a divisional rival. And while they held the Dolphins to just 65 rushing yards, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. Additionally, New England has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in Week Two of the regular season under Belichick — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored. We were on Pittsburgh last week — and it was great to see them benefit from a +5 net turnover margin including a 31-yard interception return for a touchdown. The Steelers got outgained by -165 net yards. It was a huge win for this team — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset victory as an underdog. Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a victory by seven points or less. The Steelers only gained 267 yards of offense with quarterback Mitchell Trubisky averaging just 5.1 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. They allowed the Bengals to gain 432 total yards — and not only have they failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 400 or more yards in their last game but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after getting outgained by at least 100 yards in their last contest. Now Pittsburgh returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set in the 38.5 to 42 point range. Furthermore, the Steelers will be without T.J. Watt who is on Injured Reserve after tearing his pectoral muscle last week.

FINAL TAKE: While Belichick tends to struggle on the road against the Dolphins, he has a great track record when coaching against Tomlin. New England has beaten Pittsburgh in five of their last six meetings with the average score being 30-18.7 — they have a +68 net point differential in those six games. The Patriots have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 trips to Pittsburgh. The last time New England began the season 0-2 was in 2001 which happens to the season Brady took over as the team’s quarterback. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (275) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (482) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (481). THE SITUATION: Seattle (0-0) begins the post-Russell Wilson era coming off a 7-10 season. Denver (0-0) begins their Russell Wilson era after finishing 7-10 last year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Many pundits consider the Broncos as a Super Bowl favorite after their heavy investment in Wilson as their franchise quarterback. Yet this is a flawed football team that has endured five-straight losing seasons. There are depth concerns at wide receiver after Tim Patrick suffered a season-ending injury in the preseason. Wilson is getting a downgrade at wide receiver after enjoying the talents of Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf. Jerry Jeudy did not have a touchdown pass last year and Courtland Sutton has failed to seize the mantle as a number one receiver for this team. The Denver defense is overrated with good frontline numbers bolstered by a ball control offense. The Broncos' offense under head coach Vic Fangio ranked 5th in the league by averaging 29.45 seconds per play last year. Their opponent’s average starting position was on the 26.0-yard line, the second-best mark in the league. Denver ranked 3rd in the NFL by allowing only 18.9 Points-Per-Game but they also lead the league by holding their opponents to just 16.2 drives per game. They ranked 8th in total defense — but the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders ranked their defense as 20th in the league which is probably a more accurate measure as to what to expect this season. Now a rookie head coach takes over the team with first-time offensive and defensive coordinators. Maybe this team makes a deep playoff run — but at the very least I expect some growing pains. Maybe Nathaniel Hackett will be an instant success — but I remain puzzled how he is the boy genius as the Green Bay offensive coordinator who gets none of the blame for the Packers' postseason issues while all the blame goes to Aaron Rodgers and head coach Matt LaFleur. Seems pretty convenient  — and Sutton and Jeudy were innocent victims of bad quarterback play. And, of course, Russell Wilson is the only reason why Seattle enjoyed nine-straight winning seasons with Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll holding him back from even more success because he simply would not “let him cook.” To buy into the Denver hype, one must be willing to assess all blame elsewhere. I’m skeptical that it is that simple. If Wilson has lost a step with his mobility and has to rely more on his dropback skills, he may not be quite as good as he was in the past. His size prohibits him from making certain throws on the field. That is not a death knell — Drew Brees was quite effective even in the latter years of his career. But Wilson does not have Brees’ accuracy. Wilson tends to not see open receivers and can be too “all-or-nothing.” Maybe that changes with a better offensive line — but he is adjusting to a new system. Yes, Wilson had input in the offense to have it tailored to his expectations — but that was exactly what we heard last year when Carroll hired Shane Waldron as his offensive coordinator from the Los Angeles Rams (Sean McVay! Sean McVay!). As it is, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road when favored. And in their last 6 games on Monday Night Football, the Broncos are 1-4-1 ATS. Seattle needed the influx of young talent after years of decline in the quality on the roster. Wilson’s big contract did not help the organization’s ability to manage the salary cap. The Seahawks had their first top-ten draft pick in a decade in the spring — and they brought in several rookies who will make an impact tonight. Seattle had 9.3 wins using the Pythagorean model — so this was probably a better team than their 7-10 record suggests. They lost five of their eight games decided by one scoring possession. They outscored their opponents by +1.7 Points-Per-Game. Yes, moving to Geno Smith at quarterback is a downgrade to Wilson with the team likely to draft a rookie in the first round to become their franchise quarterback next year. But Smith did have a Passer Rating of 103.0 last year as compared to Wilson’s 103.1 Passer Rating (albeit playing through an injury). What Smith does offer is the elimination of any pressure to force the passing game to make the quarterback happy as has been the case in the past. Seattle is going to run the football and attempt to control time of possession — the formula that helped Denver produce their good defensive numbers in the past. Rashaad Penny rushed for 671 yards with seven touchdowns in his final seven games last year — and he averaged +2.1 yards-per-carry above the metrics expected yards-per-carry. The offensive line has been significantly upgraded with free agent Austin Blythe from Kansas City at center and two early draft picks in Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas joining the mix. The defense will be better simply by being on the field less. While the offense averaged only 56.1 plays per game, the defense was on the field for 70.6 plays per game. That -14.5 net difference was the 4th worst in the NFL since 1950. It is that dynamic that Carroll gets to address with Wilson gone. No, this is not a Super Bowl team — but the rebuild begins and this defense shapes up to be sneaky better than expected. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games as an underdog. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Wilson will feel some pressure returning to Lumen Field — and he is the one with Super Bowl expectations. Seattle has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in September — and no one knows Wilson better than Carroll who has had the entire offseason to prepare to defend against his former quarterback. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (482) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (481). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (479) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (480). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (0-0) comes off a 13-4 season after losing at home to the Los Angeles Rams by a 30-27 score in the NFC divisional round of the playoffs. Dallas (0-0) lost in the NFC wildcard round in a 23-17 loss at home to San Francisco.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay has significant offensive line issues after former Pro Bowler Ali Marpet retired in the offseason and then center Ryan Jensen got injured during the preseason. But the Buccaneers still have All-Pro Tristan Wirfs at right tackle — and they signed Shaq Mason from New England to replace Market at guard in the offseason. Tampa Bay’s starting offensive line should still be fine — the bigger problem is the lack of any margin for error when it comes to injury since the depth has been depleted. It certainly helps to have Tom Brady under center who not only is one of the best ever with his footwork in his pocket but also has the veteran savvy to manage a pass rush. Brady missed much of the preseason for his mysterious mid-camp “sabbatical” — but the reports out of camp were that he was quite good in his abbreviated time with the team. This is a redemption season for Brady and this team after they seemed to lose focus last year after winning the Super Bowl. The Bucs were flat in the first half when hosting the Rams in the playoffs before almost pulling off a big rally in the second half. The sting of that loss and the reset this organization made by elevating Todd Bowles from defensive coordinator to their head coach should motivate this team. Brady will not have wide receiver Chris Godwin tonight — but he still has a loaded wide receiver room that added Julio Jones and Russell Gage in the offseason along with tight end Kyle Rudolph to complement Mike Evans and Scottie Miller. The Buccaneers’ defense should be outstanding after ranking 5th in the league by allowing 20.8 Points-Per-Game. Injuries played a role in their Super Bowl hangover last year — but this team still outscored their opponents by +9.3 Points-Per-Game. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against NFC opponents. The Buccaneers have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Dallas has even more troubling offensive line issues. Left tackle Tyron Smith injured his hamstring in the preseason which will keep him out indefinitely — and the Cowboys have historically seen a significant dip in their scoring output when Smith is not available. Frankly, quarterback Dan Prescott is likely playing behind the worst offensive line since being drafted by Dallas. His early success with the team came with him playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. Only right guard Zack Martin remains from those units (with Smith injured). They cut right tackle La’El Collins in the offseason. The Cowboys will be relying on rookie first-round draft pick Tyler Smith at left tackle — but he committed 12 penalties in his 12 starts for Tulsa last year. Jason Peters may eventually be their left tackle after he was signed off the street — but the 40-year-old is on the practice squad getting into shape. The Dallas wide receiver room lost two key contributors in Amari Cooper and Cedric Wilson in the offseason — and they will not have the injured Michael Gallup for this game. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. In Brady, I Trust for this one. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (479) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (102) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (101) in the Super Bowl. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (13-7) advanced to the Super Bowl with their 27-24 upset win at Kansas City in overtime as a 7-point underdog on Sunday (January 30th). Los Angeles (15-5) joined them later that evening with their 20-17 victory against San Francisco as a 3.5-point favorite. This game takes place in the Rams’ SoFi Stadium, making them the de-facto home team.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: The best player on the field in the AFC Championship Game was Joe Burrow. The stats say he completed 23 of 38 passes for 250 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. He miraculously avoided defensive tackle, Chris Jones, twice on a crucial play to run for a first down in the second half — part of the 25 yards he added on the ground. But his biggest influence remains in his unwavering belief that he will lead his team to a victory. This is what he did at LSU — and he is already doing it in Cincinnati. It is time to jump on board — and the evidence is staring at us. The Bengals have nine games this season against teams who made the playoffs. They won and covered the point spread in 7 of those contests. They beat and covered the point spread twice against Kansas City, Las Vegas, and Pittsburgh — and they beat and covered the point spread on the road against the AFC top-seeded team in Tennessee (that beat Kansas City, Buffalo, San Francisco, and these Rams in Los Angeles during the regular season). Furthermore, their two losses to playoff teams were against Green Bay and the 49ers by just a field goal in each occasion. The debate over whether or not this Bengals team is battle-tested is over. And while I was already sold on Burrow, the convincing case made by Cincinnati in their victory against the Chiefs was the play of their defense in holding Patrick Mahomes to just a field goal in the entire second half for the second time this month. The Bengals have not allowed more than 21 points in five of their last seven games — those two exceptions were against Kansas City in games where they still pulled off the victory. Cincinnati has now covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Additionally, the Bengals have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games if they are riding a point spread streak of at least three games (they enter the Super Bowl on a 7-0 ATS run). Cincinnati has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. The Bengals have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games as a dog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Cincinnati is a dangerous underdog playing with house money this early in Burrow’s career after entering the season with 150-1 odds to win the Super Bowl. Matthew Stafford, Sean McVay, and the rest of this Los Angeles team, on the other hand, have the weight of the world on them to win the Super Bowl. For the second straight season, a team will be playing in their home stadium for the Super Bowl — but I do not see the Rams enjoying the same advantage as the Buccaneers did last season. Los Angeles did not have the home crowd edge in their two games with the 49ers this month — it is highly unlikely they will have an overly partisan crowd advantage now. Staying at home in Los Angeles leaves this Rams roster full of big personalities with plenty of distractions that did not exist in Tampa Bay last year — and they do not have a Tom Brady providing executive leadership either. Playing at home may play into the pressure issues the Rams are already facing. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. Regarding Stafford and his ability to handle pressure, if Jaquiski Tartt does not drop the wounded duck of a pass that he threw midway through the fourth quarter, the Niners might/probably win that game. The last time McVay had his team in the Super Bowl, they only scored three points in their 13-3 loss to New England in 2018. Looking at the team trends evidence, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after winning two games in a row. And while they have won six of their last seven games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Stafford did pass for 337 yards against San Francisco — but Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after passing for at least 300 yards in their last game. The Rams played ten games against teams who made the playoffs this season — but they won only five of those contests (after winning three games in the postseason) while failing to cover the point spread in 6 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: Underdogs have covered the point spread in 5 of the last 6 games in this postseason starting in the divisional round of the playoffs. While I don’t consider that actionable evidence by itself, I do think it is illustrative that this NFL season has consisted of flawed teams competing for the championship. I don’t think either of these teams would fare well against the recent Super Bowl winners — but maybe that assessment is still under-appreciating what the Bengals have accomplished. Cincinnati has the edge at quarterback. 25* NFL Game of the Year with the Cincinnati Bengals (102) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (322) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (321) in the AFC Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (14-5) won their 11th game in their last 12 contests with their 42-36 victory in overtime against Buffalo as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Cincinnati (12-7) won their fifth game in their last six contests with their 19-16 upset win at Tennessee as a 4-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas City’s ability to survive their instant-classic with the Bills should only embolden them to reach the Super Bowl for the third straight season. They should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win. And while they have covered the point spread in both their playoff games as a favorite this postseason, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after covering their last two games as the favorite. The Chiefs did surrender 422 yards to Josh Allen and the Bills — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Kansas City has a significant experience edge with this team playing in their fourth straight AFC Championship Game. It starts with Patrick Mahomes who owns an 8-2 record in the postseason with his two lone losses being to Tom Brady. In his eight playoff games at home, Mahomes is 7-1 with 23 touchdown passes, just one interception, and a Passer Rating of 120.5. In the playoffs this year, Mahomes is completing 76% of his passes for 782 yards with 10 touchdown passes and one interception in his two games. The early-season problems he was encountering with two-high safety looks are long gone. The emergence of two dangerous counter options to Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill have helped. In the last five games, wide receiver Byron Pringle had 24 receptions from 33 targets for 232 yards with five touchdowns. Running back Jerick McKinnon has 33 touches for 220 yards in the two playoff games. And Mahomes brings two additional important intangibles to these playoff games. First, he is more likely to do damage with his legs. He ran the ball seven times for 69 yards against the Bills. In his ten playoff games, he has 52 rush attempts with a 5.8 Yards-Per-Carry average with five touchdowns — as opposed to the 3.8 rush attempts he averages per game in the regular season with only eight touchdowns in those 63 games. Second, Mahomes protects the football. He has thrown only one interception in his last 192 pass attempts. In his postseason career, he throws an interception once in every 77 throws and he has never fumbled. Kansas City hosts this game at Arrowhead Stadium where they will enjoy a significant home-field edge with a very loud crowd disrupting Joe Burrow. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored by 7.5 to 14 points. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 playoff games at home. Cincinnati is happy to be in this position — but they might impact their sense of urgency. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset win. I love Burrow — but they beat a flat Titans team last week that was the lowest-rated number one or two seed according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. Cincinnati only outgained their opponents in the regular season by +5.1 net Yards-Per-Game. On the road, the Bengals are getting outgained by -18.1 net YPG despite playing only two playoff teams away from home in the regular season (and they got outgained last week to the Titans). Burrow was sacked nine times against the Titans with head coach Zac Taylor failing to change schemes to offer him more short or intermediate routes (or a screen pass!) rather than condemning him to yet another coverage sack. Cincinnati does not have a good offensive line. And I think the Chiefs’ have a significant advantage with Andy Reid along with his coordinators Eric Bienemy and Steve Spagnuolo. The Bengals are an organization that is 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games in the playoffs.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City will not take this Bengals team lightly after getting upset by them in Cincinnati on January 2nd by a 34-31 score as a 3.5-point underdog. The Chiefs blew a 14-point lead in that game while committing 10 penalties and too many mental errors in that game. Mahomes has won four of his five opportunities in the playoffs to avenge a regular-season loss to their opponent — and Kansas City has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when avenging an upset loss. 25* AFC Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (322) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (321). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (318) minus the point(s) versus the Buffalo Bills (317) in their AFC Divisional playoff game. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (13-5) has won ten of their last eleven games after their 42-21 victory against Pittsburgh last Sunday as an 11-point favorite. Buffalo (12-6) is on a five-game winning streak after their 47-17 win against New England as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: After an early-season slide where they lost four of their six games, this Kansas City team was driven to redeem themselves from losing in last year’s Super Bowl are clicking on all cylinders now. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Chiefs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Kansas City seized the better record over the Bills in the regular season which allows them to host this crucial showdown. Patrick Mahomes has won six of his seven starts at home at Arrowhead Stadium while averaging 310.3 passing Yards-Per-Game. He has thrown 20 touchdown passes to just one interception in his seven home playoff games while posting a 120.1 Passer Rating. Head coach Andy Reid will give him the green light to run the ball more given the winner-takes-all stakes of this game. The Chiefs’ defense has been tough at home as well as they hold their opponents to 17.9 Points-Per-Game and just 337.6 total Yards-Per-Game. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 playoff games at home. The Chiefs have also found themselves yet another weapon on offense with the emergence of running back Jerick McKinnon. The former Vikings and Niners player had 18 touches for 143 yards from scrimmage against the Steelers last week while giving Mahomes a nice weapon in the screen passing game. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Chiefs have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Buffalo propped up their stats with some blowout wins (mostly against lesser opponents) this season. But they lost all five of their games decided by one-scoring possession — one of the biggest reasons why I side with Mahomes versus Josh Allen tonight. The Bills are just 1-3-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while they enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin last week against the Patriots, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. But now they go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 road games after winning at least four games in a row. And while Buffalo has covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Bills’ 38-20 upset victory in Kansas City on October 10th as a 2.5-point underdog. The Chiefs left many points on the field with many mental miscues and a few bad bounces that ruined drives. KC was also missing defensive stars Chris Jones and Charvarius Ward to injury in that game — and they had yet to acquire Melvin Ingram from Pittsburgh. After adding Ingram to their defensive line, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo moved Jones back to his preferred inside position on the line — and the defense immediately improved. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss. 25* NFL Divisional Playoff Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (318) minus the point(s) versus the Buffalo Bills (317). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (304) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (303) in their NFC Divisional playoff series. THE SITUATION: Green Bay (13-4) takes the field again after their 37-30 upset loss at Detroit as a 4-point favorite to close out their regular season on January 9th. San Francisco (11-7) won their third straight game and fifth of their last six contests with their 23-17 upset win at Dallas as a 3.5-point underdog in the wild card playoff round last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Even assuming that Jimmy Garoppolo is close to full strength with his nagging thumb and shoulder injuries that have kept him questionable to play all week, this is a very challenging set of circumstances for the 49ers. They have pulled off two straight upset victories in must-win circumstances after reaching the playoffs in Week 18 with their underdog win in Los Angeles against the Rams. This is the third straight game on the road for the Niners — and that is a ton of air travel for a team that has flown back home after their last two wins. Now San Francisco travels across the country east for the second straight week — albeit on a short six-day week as well. As it is, the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing at least two straight games on the road. And while San Francisco has covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in their only three games in the last three seasons under head coach Kyle Shanahan when they had covered the point spread three games in a row. I do worry about an even 100% Garoppolo if asked to keep up with Aaron Rodgers tonight. How will he perform in weather conditions in the single digits and probably below zero with the wind chill? He struggles when put off script — he is completing just 54% of his passes in the second half in playoff games when off script with a low Passer Rating of 49 in those situations. Green Bay is rested and ready for the challenge — and they should be feisty after getting upset by the Lions. Granted, head coach Matt LaFleur rested starters in the second half of that game — but the Packers went into halftime trailing by a 17-13 score despite Rodgers playing the entire first half. Green Bay has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after getting upset in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. The Packers get some reinforcements back on defense with linebacker Za’Darius Smith and Whitney Mercilus and cornerback Jaire Alexander all expected to return to action tonight. The offensive line also gets starters David Bakhtiari, Billy Turner, and Josh Myers back from injury. Rodgers will not mind the frigid temperatures — he has a 29-1 record straight-up when the temperature is no higher than 32 degrees. Against playoff teams this season, Green Bay has a 5-0 record with Rodgers throwing 10 touchdown passes with only one interception. The Packers are 8-0 at home in Lambeau Field this season with a +15.8 net point differential. Rodgers has 20 touchdown passes and just one interception in those games with the offense scoring 30.6 PPG. The Green Bay defense has held their opponents to just 16.8 PPG. The Packers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Green Bay has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 playoff games at home.

FINAL TAKE: Dealing with the physical style of play that the 49ers bring to the table under Shanahan had been a problem for the Packers — highlighted by their 37-20 loss in the playoffs two years ago when they gave up 285 rushing yards. But that game was in San Francisco — and Green Bay has won both meetings with the Niners since including a 30-28 victory back at Levi’s Stadium on September 26th. The 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when motivated by revenge. 25* NFL Saturday Night Television Game of the Year with the Green Bay Packers (304) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (151) plus the points versus the Los Angles Rams (152) in their NFC wild card playoff game. THE SITUATION: Arizona (11-6) has lost four of their last five games after their 38-30 upset loss to Seattle as a 5-point underdog on Sunday. Los Angeles (12-5) had their five-game winning streak snapped with their 27-24 upset loss at home to San Francisco as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Arizona took a step back in the second half of the season with five losses in their last eight games after an 8-1 start. I thought the Cardinals were overvalued after that fast start (and I am not the biggest Kliff Kingsbury fan) — but they are bit undervalued in this spot. Arizona was hit hard by injuries in the second half of the season including playing three games with quarterback Kyler Murray. The loss of wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins has hurt the offensive significantly — but it does look like defensive end J.J. Watt will be available to play some snaps tonight. The decline on defense corresponded to Watt’s shoulder injury. The pressure appears to be off this team — and that makes them dangerous. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Cardinals defense should play better after allowing the Seahawks (emboldened in the role of the spoiler in what Pete Carroll described as their “Super Bowl”) to generate 431 yards with a 7.70 Yards-Per-Play average. Arizona has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. And in their last 38 games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 7.0 YPP, they  have covered the point spread in 27 of these contests. The Cardinals played their best football on the road where they were 8-1 with an average winning margin of +10.8 net Points-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph’s unit holds their home hosts to just 18.9 Points-Per-Game and 319.0 total YPG. They are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight road games as the underdog. Furthermore, Arizona is 19-7-2 ATS in their last 28 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Cardinals had a 5-2 record against the playoff teams — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of these 7 games. Los Angeles only won twice in their seven games against playoff teams — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of those 7 games against playoff teams. The Rams took a 17-3 lead into the first half last week against the 49ers before getting outscored by a 24-7 margin in the second half. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after taking a two-touchdown lead or more in the first half of their last game. The Rams have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Despite pundits wanting to believe in the high-ceiling of this LA All-Star team, there are significant flaws. Matthew Stafford has demonstrated that perhaps he was not an innocent victim during his time playing for the Detroit Lions after committing nine turnovers in the last four games. He has thrown four pick-sixes this season — yet head coach Sean McVay continues to call plays that put his new shiny toy at quarterback in the best position to succeed. Stafford struggles against pressure up the middle — and that is an area where the return of Watt could make a big difference. The season-ending injury to Robert Woods has played a role in Stafford’s inconsistent play in the second half of the season. He has thrown 11 interceptions in since Week 10 — and his Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game has dropped a full yard to 7.6 YPA over that span. While Stafford was lighting up the league with a Passer Rating of 111.6 in the first nine weeks of the year, he only had a Passer Rating of 93.7 in the final nine weeks. A decline of the running game has not helped with Darrell Henderson going on Injured Reserve. Los Angeles has only ran for 73 and 64 yards in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after not rushing for more than 75 yards in two straight games. The defense has underperformed expectations as well. They allowed 449 yards to San Francisco last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. They stay at home where, as Stafford’s wife will attest, they will not necessarily have a vociferous crowd advantage. Arizona fans will travel as Niners fans did last week. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games at home. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona upset the Rams in LA in the first meeting on October 3rd by a 37-20 score. Los Angeles won the rematch on December 13th in Glendale by a 30-23 score as a 3-point favorite. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games when playing on the road motivated to avenge a loss to their opponent. 25* NFL Wild Card Playoff Game of the Year with the Arizona Cardinals (151) plus the points versus the Los Angles Rams (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (142) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (141) in their AFC wild card playoff game. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (10-7) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 21-16 loss at Cleveland as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday. Las Vegas (10-7) won their fourth game in a row with their 35-32 upset victory in overtime against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS THE POINTS: Las Vegas benefited from Chargers’ head coach Brandon Staley misreading analytics by taking silly chances like going for it on 4th-and-2 on their own 18-yard line to pull the upset last week. Coaching mistakes like that helped the Raiders overcome getting outgained by 94 net yards — but a +2 net turnover margin helped even that game as well. The result had a feel of Las Vegas winning their Super Bowl by giving the home fans their first taste of the playoffs since the club moved from Oakland — made all the sweeter given all the turmoil this team has encountered this season starting with the removal of Jon Gruden as their head coach. An emotional letdown is likely — especially for a team that has pulled off three straight upset wins to reach the playoffs. All four of their games during their current winning streak were decided by just a field goal — and they have benefited from a 7-2 record in games decided by one scoring possession including a 4-0 mark in games that went to overtime. In other words, the Raiders are a few breaks going against them from being an 8-9 (or worse) football team. There were outscored by -3.8 Points-Per-Game this season — and they were outscored by -4.1 PPG when playing on the road. And on the road this teams goes under very challenging circumstances coming from a long overtime game on Sunday Night Football to the opening playoff context on Saturday afternoon — and they have to travel across the country to boot! As it is, Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 31 games after an upset win as a home underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games after upsetting a divisional rival as a home underdog. The Raiders have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a close win by three points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Las Vegas has also failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after covering the point spread in each of their last three games. They go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 road games after winning four or five of their last six games. Weather will be a factor with temperates expected to drop below freezing with a chance of snow. Quarterback Derek Carr has played five games when the temperature was under at 37 degrees or less: he lost all five games with the Raiders never scoring more than 17 points. Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow grew up in Ohio — so he is used to the cold weather. Burrow comes into this game rested after the Bengals clinched home field in the opening round of the playoffs two weeks ago. Their team dominated by second-stringers still were competitive against the Browns — and Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. The Bengals have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. Additionally, Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: These teams played in Las Vegas on November 21st when the Bengals scored 19 points in the fourth quarter to pull away with a 32-13 victory. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 61 when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 28 points — including six of these last nine circumstances. 25* AFC Wild Card Playoff Game of the Year with the Cincinnati Bengals (142) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (141). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (481) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (482). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (9-7) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 34-13 win against Denver as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday. Las Vegas (9-7) is on a three-game winning streak after their 23-20 upset win at Indianapolis as an 8.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Raiders come off two straight upset wins after they beat Denver at home by a 17-13 score as a 1-point underdog two weeks ago. Las Vegas has benefited from some favorable opponent quarterback situations during their winning streak. They beat a Cleveland Browns team ravaged by COVID three weeks ago who had to resort to three-stringer Nick Mullens at quarterback. They faced Broncos’ backup quarterback Drew Lock two weeks ago — and they then got Carson Wentz not at 100% last week after the unvaccinated quarterback returned from his inevitable case of COVID. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by three points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after a narrow win by a field goal or less on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning at least two games in a row. Las Vegas got outgained in yardage by the Colts, 362-326. The Raiders have been fortunate with a 6-2 record in games decided by one scoring possession. They are getting outscored by -4.2 Points-Per-Game on the season. They only managed to rush for 85 yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after not rushing for more than 90 yards in their last game. Las Vegas has not been an effective team on offense — especially after Jon Gruden was let go by the franchise. The Raiders rank 25th in Third Down Percentage and 29th in Red Zone Scoring. They expect to play tight end Darren Waller and running back Josh Jacobs who are both listed as questionable — but it remains a question how effective they can be playing through their injuries. Las Vegas is scoring only 18.7 Points-Per-Game and averaging 332.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — and they have scored more than 17 points just twice in their last eight games. They are 4-4 at home despite getting outscored by -4.4 PPG. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Los Angeles has scored at least 28 points in five straight games. Since Week 11, the Chargers lead the NFL in total offense and rank second in scoring. They are scoring 30.3 PPG and averaging 395.3 total YPG in their last three games. Second-year quarterback Justin Herbert leads the NFL in third-down effectiveness — and that includes Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against AFC West opponents — and they are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games in January. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against the Raiders.

FINAL TAKE: Las Vegas wants to avenge a 28-14 loss to the Chargers in Los Angeles on October 4th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 29 games when playing with revenge from a loss by at least 14 points. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Chargers (481) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (482). Best of luck for us  — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (472) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (471). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (8-8) is on a five-game losing streak after their 20-19 loss to the Los Angeles Rams as a 7-point underdog on Sunday. Pittsburgh (8-7-1) has won two of their last three games after their 26-14 upset win against Cleveland as a 1-point underdog on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Both of these teams have slim playoff hopes still alive — the winner of this game needs Indianapolis to get upset by Jacksonville as a two-touchdown underdog. That is not likely to happen, of course. And it sure looked like the Steelers put everything into their Monday night win against the Browns in what was Ben Roethlisberger’s likely last game at home in Heinz Field. An emotional letdown appears imminent. As it is, Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a point spread win. Additionally, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Pittsburgh is just 2-5 on the road with an average losing margin of -9.6 Points-Per-Game. They allow their home hosts to score 29.6 PPG and generate 398.0 total Yards-Per-Game. I have little doubt that head coach John Harbaugh will have his team ready to play. The Ravens want to end their losing streak — and they would love to end Roethlisberger’s career with a loss. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. It will be Tyler Huntley under center with Lamar Jackson still nursing his ankle injury. The backup has played well in Jackson’s absence — he has completed 67.5% of his 162 passes with 955 passing yards and another 222 rushing yards on a 6.3 Yards-Per-Carry average in six games. Baltimore is 5-3 at home this season — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games. The Ravens have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in January.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh won the first game between these two teams by a  20-19 score as a 4-point underdog on December 5th. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 opportunities to avenge a same-season loss. 25* AFC North Game of the Year with the Baltimore Ravens (472) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (132) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (131). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-7-1) has lost two of their last three games after their 36-10 loss at Kansas City as a 10.5-point underdog last Sunday. Cleveland (7-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-22 loss at Green Bay as a 7.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh still has a narrow path to make the playoffs — but the chances are remote so the weight of playoff expectations are not likely to be heavy. Instead, tonight’s game is being viewed as Big Ben Roethlisberger’s final game at home at Heinz Field. It should be a wild and emotional night for the fans and the team that will want to send out the future Hall of Fame a winner. Roethlisberger loves playing against his childhood team. Big Ben has a 24-2-1 against the Browns in his career with 42 touchdown passes and just 22 interceptions. He has a career Passer Rating of 94.2 against the Browns. Even better, the Steelers have a perfect 14-0 record at home against Cleveland under head coach Mike Tomlin. They should play well tonight after getting handled by the Chiefs last week. Pittsburgh has covered the point speed in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a loss by at least 21 points. The Steelers fell behind early and went into halftime with a 23-0 score — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after trailing by at least 14 points at halftime of their last game. Pittsburgh had a -2 net turnover margin in that game as well — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Steelers should also play better defense — they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after allowing at least 35 points in their last game. Pittsburgh does get back T.J. Watt back on defense — and they have a 7-2 straight up record this season when Watt plays at least 60% of the snaps on defense. The Steelers are 5-2 at home this year — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored at home by up to three points. Cleveland may be flat after getting eliminated from the playoff race after yesterday’s results. As it is, the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a loss on the road. And while Cleveland has covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after covering two of their last three games. The Browns stay on the road where they are just 2-5 this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games on the road with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the last two weeks of the season. They are also just 11-28-1 ATS in their last 40 games against AFC North opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland will be motivated to avenge a 15-10 loss at home to Pittsburgh on October 31st. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with same-season revenge — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 14 points. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (132) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (131). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (481) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (482). THE SITUATION: Miami (7-7) won their sixth straight game last Sunday in a 31-29 victory against the New York Jets as a 10.5-point favorite last Sunday. New Orleans (7-7) won their second-straight game with their 9-0 upset win at Tampa Bay as an 11.5-point underdog last Sunday night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS MINUS THE POINTS: If the Dallas Cowboys (unfortunate, for us) blowout victory against Washington last night re-affirmed to me, it is to not underestimate the physical, mental, and emotional toll COVID outbreaks have on teams. Not that we should become zombies to simply fade teams dealing with significant outbreaks — and good luck finding matchups where only one team is dealing with that problem — but it is certainly a factor. We hope that Omicron is resulting in milder cases, but we just don’t know yet (the “analytics” are too early to evaluate). And we think professional athletes are in the best position to overcome. But dudes are still getting sick for a few days. A momentum swing like an early interception (as from last night) can play into the game script putting one team on defense for an extended period — and then suddenly a team dealing with the challenges and complications from COVID all week can find themselves on their heels. New Orleans has 20 players out because of COVID including quarterbacks Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian. On defense, stalwarts in linebackers Demario Davis and Kaden Ellis along with strong safety Malcolm Jenkins who all played important roles in shutting out Tom Brady last week are now out as well. Head coach Sean Payton is on to his fourth-string quarterback in rookie Ian Book. The former Notre Dame star is an interesting project — but he left South Bend with a ceiling to his talents and there is a reason that there was little to no consideration of using him at quarterback up until tonight despite all the attrition at this position starting with the season-ending injury to Jameis Winston. In the preseason, Book completed 9 of 16 passes for 126 yards and an interception. Payton is an offensive wizard — but Book lacks Hill’s mobility to run the “Cam Newton Carolina” offense and his passing skillset is similar to Siemian’s but without the NFL experience. The Saints have Alvin Kamara back — but the Dolphins are likely to put eight men in the box to slow him down and dare New Orleans to beat them with Book’s arm (with a suspect receiving corps still missing Michael Thomas). Besides all that, the Saints are in a letdown spot after the shocking shutout victory against the Buccaneers. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset win as an underdog of six or more points against an NFC South rival. The Saints have covered the point spread in their last two games but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after covering point spread expectations in two of their last three games. New Orleans benefited from a +2 net turnover margin against Tampa Bay — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 56 home games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. The Saints return home where they are just 1-4 this season while getting outscored by 27.8 Points-Per-Game and surrendering 402.0 total Yards-Per-Game. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread 14 of their last 22 home games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 38 point range. The Saints also remain without their starting tackles with Ryan Ramczyk out with COVID and Terron Armstead still dealing with a knee injury. That is not a good sign for a team that ranks second to last in the league over the last six weeks in Expected Points Added per snap on offense. Miami’s defense leads the NFL during that span in Expected Points Allowed per snap. Admittedly, the Dolphins have been feasting on the lesser teams in the league with less than ideal quarterback situations — but this is a team that is confident with a formula for success. And this team is pretty healthy with few COVID cases. Miami has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a victory at home. They had covered the point spread in five straight games before their narrow win over the Jets last week - and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Dolphins have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 30 points. Tua Tagovailoa has found a rhythm under center as of late — he has completed 100 of his 129 passes in his last four games for a 77.8% completion percentage with 943 passing yards, seven touchdown passes, and just three interceptions. And while Miami allowed just 228 yards to the Jets last week, they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: The Dolphins have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games under head coach Brian Flores in December. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month is on the Miami Dolphins (481) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (337) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (338). THE SITUATION: Seattle (5-8) has won two games in a row with their 33-13 win at Houston as a 10-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (9-4) has won two games in a row after their 30-23 upset victory at Arizona as a 3-point underdog last Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: After struggling initially after his faster-than-expected return from a finger injury, Russell Wilson has regained his old form after completing 17 of 28 passes for 260 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions in the win against the Texans. Wilson is completing more than 70% of his passes with a Passer Rating of 109 in his last three starts. He has averaged 246 passing Yards-Per-Game in those contests with six touchdown passes and just one interception. The Seahawks are 35-17-3 ATS in their last 55 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. While this game was originally postponed because of a COVID outbreak in the Rams’ locker room, it is now Seattle that has been hit harder with positive cases. The Seahawks are without a handful of players including wide receiver Tyler Lockett, running back Alex Collins, cornerback D.J. Reed, and right tackle Brandon Shell. The absence of Lockett hurts but Wilson still has D.J. Metcalf as a prime target. The loss of Collins is not as big a deal with the emergence of running back Rashaad Penny who rushed the ball 16 times for 137 yards last week. The line has moved to account for the players Seattle will not have tonight — but they still have Wilson who usually makes them dangerous underdogs. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a dog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Seattle has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games as an underdog. The Seahawks have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December. Seattle is also a dangerous dog since they protect the football — they are tied for the fewest giveaways in the league. The national punditry seems to believe the Rams have solved all their problems after beating and covering the point spread in their last two games against Jacksonville and the Cardinals last week. We had LA against Arizona in that game — but the Rams have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a win by at least 14 points. Los Angeles has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. Furthermore, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 15 points in their last game. Consistency has not been a hallmark for this team under head coach Sean McVay. And problems remain — a +2 net turnover margin helped them overcome betting outgained by 89 yards to the Cardinals. Arizona generated 447 yards against them — and the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 42 home games after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. Los Angeles still has many players out on the COVID list including starting tight end Tyler Higbee — but they do expect to get Von Miller back.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored. 25* NFC West Underdog of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (337) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (338). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (332) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (331). THE SITUATION: Chicago (4-9) lost their second straight game win a 45-30 loss at Green Bay as an 11.5-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (6-7) won their third game in their last five contests with a 36-28 victory against Pittsburgh as a 3.5-point favorite on Thursday Night Football last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Chicago has lost seven of their last eight games — but they have the opportunity to play the role of spoiler tonight. The Bears have not covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 home games after not covering the point spread in three straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after not covering the point spread in four straight games. Chicago has suffered -4 and -3 net turnover margins in their last two games — but they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games at home after enduring a -2 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games. They host a Vikings team that is just 2-5 on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Despite two interceptions last week, rookie quarterback Justin Fields has played well as the Bears’ starting quarterback. He completed 18 of 33 passes for 224 yards with two touchdown passes and another 74 rushing yards. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning their last game at home. The Vikings have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game at home where both teams scored 24 points. And while Minnesota has played four straight Overs, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after playing at least four straight Overs. They allowed the Steelers to gain 375 yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. And while the Vikings have gained 426 and 458 yards in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after gaining at least 375 yards in their last game. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games against teams with a losing record. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on Monday Night Football — and Kirk Cousins has lost nine of his ten starts in prime-time. The Bears have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on Monday Night Football. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 meetings with Minnesota — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opportunities to host the Vikings at Soldier Field. 25* NFC North Game of the Month with the Chicago Bears (332) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (331). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (312) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (311). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (7-6) has won four of their last five games after their 31-0 victory at Houston as a 10-point favorite on December 5th. New England (9-4) won their seventh game in a row with their 14-10 upset win at Buffalo as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS MINUS THE POINTS: Indianapolis should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 45 games after a double-digit win against an AFC South Rival. The Colts generated 389 yards against Texas to outgain them by +248 net yards. Indy has covered the point spread in 33 of their last 51 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +150 net yards — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Colts' offense has started to crank with Carson Wentz more comfortable running head coach Frank Reich’s offense. Indianapolis has scored at least 30 points in seven of their last eight games. Since Week Six, this team leads the NFL in points scored and touchdowns and they are second in rushing yards. They held Houston to just 141 total yards — and they are 24-7-1 ATS in their last 32 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. They return home where they are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Colts may only have two wins in their seven games against teams with a winning record — but they have also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games against teams with a winning record. New England had failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a game where they did not score more than 14 points. Some might be surprised that the red hot Patriots are the underdogs in this game — but it relates to rookie quarterback Mac Jones’ home/road splits this season. At home, Jones is averaging 267.1 passing YPG with 13 touchdown passes and five interceptions. He has a Quarterback Rating of 102.5 in those seven home games. But in his six games on the road, Jones sees his QBR drop to 87.7. Even after tossing out his 2 of 3 passing performance in the wind in Buffalo in his last game, Jones is still only averaging 196 passing YPG in his other five road games with just three touchdown passes and three interceptions. New England ran their way to victory against the Bills in that game as they gained 222 yards on the ground. But the Patriots are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 175 yards in their last contest. New England is also just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games in December under head coach Bill Belichick. The Patriots will be without Damien Harris in this game as he is out with a hamstring injury.  

FINAL TAKE: The Colts surge has been led by running back Jonathan Taylor — they are 7-0 straight-up when he rushes for at least 100 yards. The Patriots have a great defense — but they are vulnerable against the run as they allow 4.4 Yards-Per-Carry and rank 18th in the NFL by giving up 114 rushing YPG. 25* AFC Game of the Month Indianapolis Colts (312) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (311). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (129) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (130). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-4) ended a three-game losing streak with a 37-5 victory against Jacksonville as a 14-point favorite last Sunday. Arizona (10-2) has won two games in a row after their 33-22 win at Chicago as a 7.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles dominated the Jaguars last week by outgaining them by +221 net yards. The Rams have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 road games after scoring at least 35 points in their last game. Los Angeles covered the point spread for the first time in their last six games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread just once in their last three games. The Rams have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing two of their last three games. What was encouraging from the Jaguars game was that Los Angeles ran the ball 28 times for 128 yards. That was the most rushing attempts and yards for the Rams in four games. They will be without Darrell Henderson tonight with him being on the COVID list — but Sony Michel is capable in taking on the lead back role. Their 6.3 Yards-Per-Play average is the best in the NFL — and they average 6.3 YPP on the road with the offensive execution not dropping off. Los Angeles is 4-2 on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog getting up to seven points. The Rams are also 25-12-1 ATS in their last 38 games in the NFC — and they are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games in December. Arizona has won three of their last four games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7games after winning three of their last four games. The Cardinals host this game where they are just 3-2 this season with an average winning margin of +1.4 net Points-Per-Game. They are only scoring 22.6 PPG at home. Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. The Cardinals have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games when favored by up to seven points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 appearances on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals won the first meeting between these two teams by a 37-20 score in Los Angeles as a 3.5-point underdog. The Rams have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Los Angeles is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games against the Cardinals — and they have covered their last 6 games against them in Arizona. 25* NFC West Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Rams (129) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (130). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (123) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (124). THE SITUATION: New York (4-8) has lost two of their last three games after their 20-9 loss at Miami as a 6.5-point underdog last week. Los Angeles (7-5) has won two of their last three games with their 41-22 win at Cincinnati as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: Despite their losing record, New York is playing much better on defense as of late. They have held five of their last six opponents to no more than 20 points. The Giants have forced multiple turnovers in five of their last eight games. Since Week Seven, New York is allowing just 16.0 Points-Per-Game and 4.8 Yards-Per-Play which both rank fourth-best in the NFL during that span. Opposing quarterbacks have a Passer Rating of 70.7 since Week Seven as well — the fifth-lowest mark in the league. The Giants should play better this week as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. New York has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after losing two of their last three games. And they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. With quarterback Daniel Jones still nursing a neck injury, the Giants will have Mike Glennon under center once again this week. Glennon was just OK last week — he completed 23 of 44 passes for 187 yards with an interception. One of the problems for the Giants is that Jones is not putting up much better numbers at this point in his career. Glennon is a capable backup with a completion percentage of 60.8% in 1049 career passing attempts. He has 44 touchdown passes to just 28 interceptions. The Giants have been ravaged with injuries but they are getting healthier with Saquon Barkley getting 17 touches last week in his third week back since missing over a month. It was encouraging for New York to limit the Dolphins to just 68 rushing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Giants have been reliable on the road where they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games away from home — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games as an underdog. Los Angeles has been inconsistent this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Chargers are also only 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 games after a game where they scored at least 30 points. After taking a 24-0 lead against the Bengals, Los Angeles let the Bengals back in the game with Cincinnati scoring a potential game-tying touchdown before they missed the two-point conversion. The Chargers then recovered a fumble on their 39-yard line which they returned for a touchdown early in the fourth quarter to take a nine-point lead and re-take control of the game. That upset victory was Los Angeles’ first point spread cover in their last four games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games at home after only covering the point spread once in their last three games. The Chargers return home where they are only 3-3 — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45 range. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games at home when favored. The Chargers’ challenge is complicated with a COVID outbreak in their locker room. Wide receiver Keenan Allen is out and wide receiver Mike Williams is among a handful of players questionable as they look to clear quarantine protocols.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and New York has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. The Giants’ defense should keep them in this game against a Chargers’ team that had allowed at least 24 points in seven straight games before the Bengals only scored 22 points. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the New York Giants (123) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (124). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (102) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (101). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (5-7) has lost two games in a row after their 29-27 upset loss at Detroit as a 7-point favorite last week. Pittsburgh (6-5-1) snapped a three-game winless streak with a 20-19 upset win against Baltimore as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota has a losing record despite outscoring and out-gaining their opponents this season. All seven of their losses have been by one-scoring possession. They have scored at least 26 points in five straight games. This is as near a “gotta have it” game for the Vikings as there will be. They have typically played well under situations like this under head coach Mike Zimmer. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 42 of their last 61 games after a straight-up loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a loss to a division rival. And in their last 5 games after a loss by three points or less, the Vikings have covered the point spread 4 times. Minnesota has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing two games in a row. Quarterback Kirk Cousins will not have wide receiver Adam Thielen tonight with him being out with an ankle injury — but his productivity outside the Red Zone has declined this season. Dalvin Cook is a game-time decision to return to action earlier than expected from his shoulder injury — but Alexander Mattison is a very good running back if he does play. Cousins is enjoying a great season, albeit under the radar. He is completing 68.4% of his passes for over 3300 yards with 25 touchdown passes and just three interceptions. He has not tossed an interception in 246 straight pass attempts. Pittsburgh may be due for an emotional letdown after grinding out a win against their arch-rivals in the Ravens. As it is, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset loss. Additionally, Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread victory. The Steelers go back on the road for the third time in their last four games — and doing so on a short week will be a challenge. Pittsburgh has surrendered 41 points in each of their last two games away from home — and they are giving up 27.0 PPG and 389.4 total Yards-Per-Game on the road. Injuries have made things worse for the Steel Curtain — they are without cornerback Joe Haden and linebacker Robert Spillane. Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in December. The Steelers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against NFC foes.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have been a disappointment in losing seven closes games this season — but they have finally completed a difficult stretch with four of their last five games being on the road. The last time they played at home, they upset Green Bay — and this will be an angry and embarrassed team after they shipped the Lions their first win of the year. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year with the Minnesota Vikings (102) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (476) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (475). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (7-4) has won two of their last three games after their 31-6 win at New Orleans as a 7-point favorite last week. New England (8-4) won their sixth straight game in a row with their 36-13 victory against Tennessee as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: My initial thought for this situation was to prefer Buffalo but I do like to make final decisions with fresh eyes. The biggest questions for tonight's game are (1) how significant of an impact will the weather have on the game and (2) how significant is the line movement in reaction to the weather? After waiting for the early afternoon forecast to make my final calls, the temperates appear destined to be in the 20s (wind chill in the teens) with winds 25-35 MPH and gusting up to 40 MPH. Precipitation does not seem likely by game-time -- so probably not blizzard conditions. I think there is a significant edge at Quarterback tonight. Josh Allen played four years in the cold at Wyoming. His big arm can cut through the wind a bit more -- and he has a few more years of big games under his belt. I like Mac Jones but his arm strength is not one of his best qualities (accuracy, decision-making, intellect) -- and his background is Florida then Alabama. Will these be the coldest temperatures he has ever played in? As it is, the New England offense only averages 309.0 total Yards-Per-Game on the road — a drop-off of -46.3 net YPG from their season average. Jones averages only 178 passing YPG in his five starts on the road with his 231 passing yards at Houston being his season-high away from home. The Patriots' recent winning streak has been fueled by them winning the turnover battle in each of those six games. They have forced four turnovers in two straight games while committing just one turnover themselves in those two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread 6 of their last 8 games after enjoying a +3 or better turnover margin in each of their last two games. New England surrendered 270 rushing yards to a Titans team without Derrick Henry last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. Buffalo is 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a victory by 14 or more points. The Bills are also 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Buffalo gained 361 yards against the Saints last week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Bills held New Orleans to just 190 total yards — and they are 9-1-2 ATS after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. Buffalo held the Saints to just 44 rushing yards as well — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Patriots will lean heavily on running the football on the road and in these weather conditions — but the Bills are fourth in the NFL by allowing just 3.9 rushing Yards-Per-Carry. Buffalo returns home where they are outscoring their guests by +8.8 Points-Per-Game and outgains them by +135.4 net Yards-Per-Game. The Bills are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games at home — and they are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 home games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games in December. The Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in December. 25* AFC East Game of the Year with the Buffalo Bills (476) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (463) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (464). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (6-5) has lost two of their last three games after a 28-13 upset loss at Denver as a 2.5-point favorite last week. Cincinnati (7-4) has won two in a row after their 41-10 win against Pittsburgh as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles outgained the Broncos last week by +55 net yards after holding Denver to just 302 yards. Denver benefited from a 70-yard interception returned for a touchdown to flip the score. The Chargers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset loss by 14 or more points. Los Angeles is playing close games — two of their losses were by just three points apiece. They are outgaining their opponents by +33.6 net Yards-Per-Game. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 road games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Cincinnati dominated their arch-rivals in the Steelers last week which may set them up for an emotional letdown. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home. And while Cincinnati has scored at least 73 combined points in their last two weeks, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 25 points in their last two games. Led by Joe Mixon, the Bengals rushed for 198 yards last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. The Chargers give up a lot of rushing yards — but that is because they are focusing on defending the pass. Los Angeles only allows 331.2 total Yards-Per-Game on the road. Cincinnati is only outgaining their opponents by +7.3 net YPG despite their 7-4 record — and they are getting outgained when playing at home. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road (Chargers: 3-2 on the road). Four of Cincinnati’s wins have come against Detroit, Jacksonville, and Pittsburgh twice. They are just 3-4 against the rest of their competition. And Joe Burrow has been sacked 13 times in the last four weeks — the second-most of all quarterbacks during that span. Now here comes the Chargers’ Joey Bosa.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles is 35-16-4 ATS in their last 55 road games as an underdog. 25* AFC Underdog of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (463) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (464). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (271) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (272). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (6-5) has won two of their last three games after a 13-10 win at home against Detroit as a 14-point favorite last week. Baltimore (7-3) has also won two of their last three games with their 16-13 win at Chicago as a 1-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS PLUS THE POINTS: Cleveland has not looked very good in the last two weeks. They were flat against the winless Lions last week despite wanting to make a statement after their embarrassing 45-7 loss in New England the prior week. But injuries have played a role in the Browns’ subpar play — and they are getting healthy again. Nick Chubb returned to action last week to run the ball 22 times for 130 yards. Now both All-Pro right tackle Jack Conklin and running back Kareem Hunt are expected to play tonight. Cleveland is a different team when their potent ground game is at full strength. The Browns have scored 41 or more points twice this season. They should raise their level of play in this AFC North showdown as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a win at home where they did not cover the point spread. Cleveland held the Lions to only 245 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 350 yards in their last game. Baker Mayfield has been in a funk — but he loves playing against the Ravens. In his six career starts against Baltimore, Mayfield has thrown for at least 300 yards four times — and he has averaged 297 passing YPG in those six games. The rushing attack of the Browns travels — they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. Furthermore, Cleveland has covered the point spread in 5 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams winning 60-75% of their games. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread win. And while Baltimore gave up 353 yards to Bears’ defense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Ravens return home after a two-game road trip — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 57 games after playing their last two games on the road. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored by up to seven points. The Ravens have failed to score more than 17 points in three of their last four games. Lamar Jackson is expected to play tonight (he claimed to be “120%” confident he will play) after missing last week because of a non-COVID illness. But the Ravens have yet to demonstrate they have the full fix to the eight-man front that Miami deployed against them in their loss on Thursday Night Football that took away Jackson’s rushing lanes and forced him to pass. Baltimore scored only 10 points with 304 total yards against the Dolphins.

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in November. 25* AFC North Game of the Month with the Cleveland Browns (271) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (476) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (475). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (5-4) has lost three of their last four games after their 27-20 upset loss to Minnesota as a 3-point favorite last week. Pittsburgh (5-3-1) had their four-game winning streak snapped with a 16-16 tie with Detroit as a 6-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS MINUS THE POINTS: I consider the Steelers a bit overrated — and they are ravaged with injuries for this one. Big Ben Roethlisberger will play after being removed from the COVID list — but he has not practiced in a couple of weeks. Granted, Roethlisberger is not a gym rat — but I still expect him to be rusty after being in quarantine. Left guard Kevin Dotson is out with a foot injury. The Pittsburgh defense is without their three best players in linebacker T.J. Watt, safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, and cornerback Joe Haden. Those losses on defense are devastating. As it is, Pittsburgh is being outscored and outgained this season. They are getting outgained by -46.7 net Yards-Per-Game on the road. The Steelers winning record is due to their 5-0-1 record in games decided by one-scoring possession. Mike Tomlin’s team could easily be 3-6 instead of 5-3-1. Their record is also skewed when considering that six of their nine games have been at home at Heinz Field. They are scoring just 18.3 PPG and averaging 301.3 total YPG in their three road games. Pittsburgh did game 387 yards last week against the Lions — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning four or five of their last six games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after playing their last game Under the Total including failing to cover the point spread in four of their five games this season after an Under. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 31 of their last 47 games after an upset loss at home as the favorite. The Chargers have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Los Angeles gave up 278 passing yards to the Vikings last week — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 250 yards in their last game. The good news for the Chargers is that they expect defensive end Joey Bosa to be back on the field after being on the COVID list. On their home field, Los Angeles is scoring 27.2 PPG while averaging 380.6 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against fellow AFC opponents. Against a depleted Steelers’ defense, Los Angeles should reach their home scoring average in the high-20s — and that is a mark that will be hard for Pittsburgh to match. The Steelers have not scored more than 17 points in five of their games. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (476) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (312) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (311). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (4-5) looks to rebound from their 43-3 loss at Dallas an 8-point underdog on Sunday. New England (6-4) has won four in a row with their 45-7 win against Cleveland as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: The Falcons have lost two of their last three games after catching an angry Cowboys team that was coming off their worst game of the season in an upset loss at home to Denver. Despite Atlanta being hit hard by injuries, rookie head coach Arthur Smith has done a good job with this team. After losing their first two games of the season by 49 combined points, the Falcons won four of their next six games with each of those contests decided by one-scoring possession. If there was a silver lining from Sunday’s blowout loss, it was that Matt Ryan left the game in the third quarter. The veteran quarterback will be rested and ready for this game on a short week. Atlanta went into halftime trailing by a 36-3 score — but they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after trailing by at least three touchdowns at halftime in their last game. The Falcons have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. A blocked punt returned for a touchdown and a -2 net turnover margin did not help matters — but Atlanta has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after suffering a -2 or worse turnover margin in their last game. The Falcons only gained 214 total yards in the loss — but they are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last game and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last contest. And while the Cowboys gained 431 yards against them last week, Atlanta has then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after giving up at least 350 yards in their last game. New England is peaking in terms of market value after their 38-point win against the Browns — but they are just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games after a straight-up win. The Patriots have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win at home — and they are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a point spread win. Additionally, New England is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Patriots have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning four or five of their last six games. Now they go back on the road where they are 4-0 — but they are gaining just 309.3 total YPG in those contests. Rookie quarterback Mac Jones has played much better than expected under offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels — but New England has supported him with a quality rushing attack. The Patriots rushed for 184 yards last week after gaining 151 yards on the ground in their previous game at Carolina. The Patriots are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: After playing their last two games on the road, Atlanta returns home which gives them a situational edge in this matchup. The concept of selling high and buying low when handicapping football gets thrown around too loosely in my opinion — but this is a genuine opportunity to take advantage of that axiom fading a Patriots team that opened around a 4-point favorite but has been bet up to a touchdown or so favorite on the road on a short week. The market is overreacting to the blowout results both teams incurred last week. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month on the Atlanta Falcons (312) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (274) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (273). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (4-2) has won two games in a row — both on the road — after a 13-10 win at Seattle as a 6-point favorite on Monday Night Football. Tampa Bay (6-1) has won four in a row after their 38-3 victory against Chicago last Sunday as a 12.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS PLUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay benefited from an overwhelmed rookie at quarterback in the Bears Justin Fields who helped them earn a +4 net turnover margin in that game. But the Buccaneers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least 14 points. Now this team goes on the road where they are being outscored this season by -0.6 net Points-Per-Game. Tom Brady and company lost by 10 points in Los Angeles against the Rams before beating New England in overtime by two points and defeating Philadelphia by just six points 2 1/2 weeks ago on Thursday Night Football. The high-powered Patriots offense is scoring only 23.7 PPG in their three road games this season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 road games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games when favored. The reigning Super Bowl champions have been piling up style points against weak competition — they have played Miami, the Eagles, and the Bears in the last three weeks after the Brady versus Bill Belichick overtime thriller in Foxboro that began their winning streak. The Bucs are not at full health with Antonio Brown out at wide receiver and the secondary banged up including last year’s starting cornerbacks, Carlton Davis and Sean Murphy-Bunting on IR. Tight end Rob Gronkowski, linebacker Jason Pierre-Paul, cornerback Richard Sherman, and linebacker Lavonte David are among the players listed as questionable. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 home games after winning their last two games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Head coach Sean Payton has transformed this team into a defense-first group that is risk-averse on offense. The Saints defense is allowing only 16.8 Points-Per-Game — and they rank third in the Football Outsiders DVOA metric for defense. Jameis Winston has been underappreciated at quarterback this season — he has not turned the ball over in his six of his games and he has 10 touchdown passes without an interception in the red zone. The organization made a savvy trade this week by re-acquiring veteran running back Mark Ingram from Houston to spell Alvin Kamara who cannot keep touching the ball 30 times per game. Now New Orleans returns to the Big Easy for just the second time all season given a front-loaded road schedule compounded by them playing their opening game in Jacksonville due to Hurricane Ida. The Saints have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have covered the point spread in 35 of their last 52 games as an underdog including seven of their last eight games. And in their last 9 home games as an underdog, New Orleans has covered the point spread 7 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints' defense did a good job of containing Brady in their three games last year. While the Buccaneers beat New Orleans in the playoffs last year by a 30-20 score as a 2.5-point underdog, they lost both regular-season games while scoring just 26 combined points. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings with the Buccaneers — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against NFC South opponents. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the New Orleans Saints (274) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (273). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (474) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (473). THE SITUATION: Seattle (2-4) has lost two straight games and four of their last five after their 23-20 loss in overtime at Pittsburgh as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday. New Orleans (3-2) has won two of their last three games with their 33-22 victory at Washington as a 2.5-point favorite on October 10th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Seattle started slowly against the Steelers on Sunday Night Football last week as they went into the locker room trailing by a 14-0 deficit. But the Seahawks remained resilient to outscore Pittsburgh in the second half by a 20-6 score to force overtime. Geno Smith was solid under center as the proverbial “game manager.” He completed 23 of 32 passes for 209 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. He did lose the football in overtime paving the way for the Steelers’ winning field goal — but that play had a lot more to do with the greatness of linebacker T.J. Watt than it did Smith making a mistake. Smith now has 32 career starts in the NFL under his belt. He will be supported by a Seattle rushing attack that gets former first-round pick, Rashaad Penny, back from injury tonight. Alex Collins was very effective last week as the lead back for the Seahawks as he ran the ball 20 times for 101 yards with a touchdown. While he has been slowed in practice all week with a groin injury, head coach Pete Carroll says he is “ready to go” tonight. This is a “gotta have it” game for Seattle with four losses in their first six games. The Seahawks are 34-15-4 ATS in their last 53 games after a straight-up loss with seven-point spread covers in their last ten games after getting beat in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a narrow loss by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a loss on the road. We had Seattle last week. One of my arguments was the absence of Russell Wilson would actually help the defense since there would be less pressure to “Let Russ Cook.” The Seahawks went into that game averaging just 25:16 minutes per game on offense. The bad defensive numbers the team was putting up were made worse by requiring them to be on the field for almost 35 minutes per game. Seattle did lose the time of possession battle to Pittsburgh last week — but they did hold Pittsburgh to just 345 total yards of offense. The 5.8 Yards-Per-Play they held the Steelers to was half a yard less than the 6.3 YPP their opponents were averaging entering that game. The 20 points allowed in regulation and 345 yards allowed was the Seahawks’ best defensive effort since the opening week of the season when they beat Indianapolis on the road by a 28-16 score. Carroll is happiest when he can run the football to control the time of possession and keep his defense off the field. Seattle has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games as an underdog. New Orleans returns to action after their bye week having beaten the Football Team despite getting outgained in yardage in that game. The Saints also lost the first down battle by a 26 to 18 margin. New Orleans is 3-2 but they are getting outgained by -58.2 net Yards-Per-Game. The Saints have been outgained in four of their five games this season. They are averaging just 295.2 total Yards-Per-Game with head coach Sean Payton keeping a short leash on quarterback Jameis Winston. New Orleans is running the ball in 54.9% of their plays on offense — and they are averaging only 24 pass attempts per game. Payton is trying to keep Winston from reverting back to his form with Tampa Bay when he was an interception machine. Keeping Winston from making mistakes in the Bomb Cyclone conditions tonight may be impossible. Like last night in Santa Clara, rain is expected all game with winds averaging 18 miles per hour and gusting to 23 miles per hour. Payton will not have his short-yardage specialist Taysom Hill tonight who is out as he recovers from a concussion. Wide receiver Michael Thomas is also still on Injured Reserve leaving the Saints without threats at wide receiver. New Orleans’ elite left tackle, Terron Armstead is also out indefinitely with an elbow injury. Even with the bye week, the Saints continue a challenging stretch of game with this being their second straight and fifth of their first six games away from New Orleans.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on Monday Night Football -- and Seattle owns MNF. Not only are the Seahawks 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games on Monday Night Football, but they have won eleven of their thirteen appearances on MNF in the Carroll regime. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (474) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.