At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (472) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (471). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (2-3) comes off their bye week looking to snap a three-game losing streak after a 17-10 loss at Arizona as a 6-point underdog two weeks ago. Indianapolis (2-4) has won two of their last three games with their 31-17 win against Houston as an 11.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: The 49ers need a victory desperately in the uber-competitive NFC West after losing at home to Seattle before their loss to the Cardinals. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after losing two in a row to division rivals. Additionally, the 49ers have covered the point spread in their last 3 games after a bye week under head coach Kyle Shanahan. San Francisco is the only team with a losing record in the league to be outgaining their opponents in yardage. They have a +38.4 net YPG mark due to their defense that is holding their opponents to just 329.8 total YPG. And while they are winless at home in their first two games, they have outgained Green Bay and the Seahawks by +84.0 net YPG while holding them to just 293.5 total YPG. They get Jimmy Garoppolo back under center for this game. The main reason why the franchise felt the need to trade up in the draft to select Trey Lance is because of Garoppolo’s injury history. When he is healthy, he is good. Garoppolo has a 24-10 record as a starting quarterback since 2017 with a 98 Passer Rating and a completion percentage of 67%. The Colts average 4.7 Rushing Yards-Per-Carry this season — but the Niners have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams who average at least 4.5 YPC. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in three straight games as well as four of their last five contests. But the Colts have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. This is a tough spot for Indianapolis with them playing their fourth game on the road in their last five games. And with a showdown with Tennessee on deck, the urgency of this game is lessened. Sure, Indy wants to win this game — but having already lost to the Titans earlier this year, being ready to play that game is of higher importance. That could impact the playing time for some of their injured players. As it is, safety Julian Blackman is out for the rest of the season with an Achilles’ injury. Cornerback Rock Ya-Sin is also out tonight. The offense is without T.Y. Hilton and Parris Campbell at wide receiver. Right tackle Braden Smith is also out. Quarterback Carson Wentz has been playing better — but perhaps his four straight games without an interception only indicate he is well overdue. The weather forecast calls for a bomb cyclone on the west coast tonight — meaning high winds and perhaps lots of rain. Wentz does not handle adversity very well.

FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 41 games against teams winning 40-49% of their games. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the San Francisco 49ers (472) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (268) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (267). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (3-2) saw their three-game winning streak snapped with their 47-42 loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Arizona (5-0) remained undefeated this season with their 17-10 victory at home against San Francisco as a 6-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS MINUS THE POINTS: Cleveland lost to the Chargers despite outgaining them by +38 net yards. The Browns have won the yardage battle in all five of their games this season — but two blown double-digit leads represent the two blemishes on their record. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Browns have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after playing a game where at least 70 combined points were scored. This is a bad matchup for the Cardinals who allowed their opponents to average 5.4 Yards-Per-Carry. Cleveland leads the NFL by averaging 188 rushing YPG and 5.4 Yards-Per-Carry. Granted, the Browns are missing Nick Chubb for this game — but this is an opportunity for Kareem Hunt to be the featured back. Cleveland’s ground game thrives from one of the best offensive lines in the league. They rushed for 230 yards last week against the Chargers — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last contest. And while they outrushed the Chargers by +118 rushing yards, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least +100 yards. Cleveland has also covered the point spread in 6 straight games against non-conference opponents. Arizona may be due for a letdown after their undefeated start to the season. They have covered the point spread in three straight games with their last two games against the Rams and 49ers. But the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning their last two games against NFC West opponents. Arizona has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. And in their last 36 games after winning three games in a row, they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of these games. As if traveling east was enough of a challenge, the Cardinals are dealing with a COVID outbreak that will keep not only head coach Kliff Kingsbury but also their quarterbacks' coach from traveling with the team. My cynical reaction to this news is that Arizona may be better off without Kingsbury — but he is the play-caller for the team. The loss of the QB coach is also big since he is the one who communicates Kyler Murray’s in-game thoughts and preferences to the play-caller. The loss of these coaches on the sidelines creates chaos — the Saints got beat badly by 19 points at Carolina in Week Two after their COVID outbreak left them without some coaches on the sidelines. Their best pass rusher Chandler Jones is also out with COVID. Murray is not 100% either as he is dealing with an arm injury. Murray only ran for one yard last week while dealing with that injury. Arizona is just 1-7-1 straight-up when Murray does not rush for at least 15 yards.

FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. To compound matters even more for the Cardinals, high winds in the 20 miles-per-hour range are expected in Cleveland this afternoon — making a good rushing attack even more valuable with the wind impacting balls in the air. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Cleveland Browns (268) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (267). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (110) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (109). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (2-3) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 21-18 upset win at Carolina as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Tampa Bay (4-1) has won their last two games after their 45-17 victory against Miami as an 11-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: The Eagles pulled off a nice win against a solid Panthers team last week. They held Carolina to just 267 yards in the win. Philadelphia had lost three games in a row where they did not cover the point spread — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after only covering the point spread once in their last four games. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after losing two of their last three games. And in their last 65 home games after only covering the point spread once in their last three games, the Eagles have covered the point spread a decisive 42 times. Philly is winless at home this year in difficult games against San Francisco and Kansas City — but they outgained both those teams by a combined +6.0 net Yards-Per-Game. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games when an underdog getting 7.5 to 10 points. Tampa Bay may be due for a letdown after their blowout win against the Dolphins. The Buccaneers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by 14 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after playing a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. Tampa Bay has enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning the turnover battle in two straight games. The Buccaneers have a stout run defense — but they are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.9% of their passes for a whopping 314 Yards-Per-Game in the air. The Tampa Bay defense will be without two important starters in linebacker Lavonte David and free safety Antoine Winfield as they are dealing with injuries. Now they go on the road where they are getting outscored by -4.0 PPG. They are scoring just 21.5 PPG in their first two games away from home — and quarterback Tom Brady is dealing with an injured right hand which may slow him down in the passing game. His safety valve in Rob Gronkowski is also still out tonight with a rib injury. The Buccaneers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games when favored. Tampa Bay is also 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games in October.

FINAL TAKE: The Buccaneers have been inconsistent this season which is not a big surprise for teams coming off Super Bowl triumphs. These are the types of games where these champions tend to underachieve — especially when on a short week. Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games played on a Thursday night. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on a Thursday. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Philadelphia Eagles (110) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (480) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (479). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (3-1) has won three games in a row after their 23-7 upset win at Denver as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Indianapolis (1-3) snapped a three-game losing streak on Sunday with their 27-17 upset win at Miami as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Baltimore is dealing with injuries — but head coach John Harbaugh has instilled the “next man up” culture with his team. The Ravens outgained the Broncos by +152 net yards by holding Denver to just 254 total yards. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a win by 14 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after outgaining their last opponent by +150 or more yards. Quarterback Lamar Jackson continues to improve in the passing game. He leads the NFL by averaging 12.1 air-yards per pass attempt — and his 14.4 yards-per-completion also leads the league. He completed 22 of 37 passes for 316 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions while only running for an additional 28 yards — he beat the tough Broncos defense with his arm. Now after playing their last three games on the road, the Ravens return home for just the second time this season. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 4 straight home games — and they have coiffed the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored. Additionally, the Ravens have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after the first month of the season under Harbaugh. Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. And while they held the Dolphins to just 35 yards, they have then lost 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last contest. This Colts team is riddled with injuries — and they do not have the quality of depth that the Ravens do. Twelve players are on  Injured Reserve — and starting guard Braden Smith and cornerback Rock Ya-Son and first-round draft pick defensive end Kity Paye are all out for tonight. Indianapolis is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis is being outgained and outscored this season — and Baltimore is outgaining their opponents by +61.2 net Yards-Per-Game. The Ravens have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games on Monday Night Football. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Baltimore Ravens (480) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (479). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (101) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (102). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (0-3) lost their third straight game to start the season with a 31-19 loss at home to Arizona as an 8-point underdog on Sunday. Cincinnati (2-1) comes off a 24-10 upset win at Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS PLUS THE POINTS: Successful long-term gambling in football requires the willingness to back bad teams — the ones that the betting public does not want to touch. Two bad teams are playing tonight — so taking the one getting a touchdown in points offers value. This is just the fourth time in head coach Zac Taylor’s three-year year tenure as the head coach of the Bengals — and this is the first time that Cincinnati is laying more than a field goal. The Bengals lost the two games they were favored in Taylor’s rookie season. Their lone win and point spread cover as a favorite under Taylor was their 33-25 win against the Jaguars last October as a 1-point favorite. With Urban Meyer now the head coach and Trevor Lawrence under center, this is a different Jacksonville team. Frankly, the Bengals are primed for a letdown after their triumph against their heated AFC North rival in the Steelers. Did Cincinnati win that game — or did Pittsburgh lose it? The Bengals gained only 268 yards. They ran only 42 plays while the Steelers took 77 snaps under center. Cincy converted only three of nine of their third-down opportunities — a disturbing continuation from last season when they were 30th in the NFL by converting 36.2% of their third-down opportunities. But the Bengals pulled off their second upset victory of the season after beating Minnesota in Week One as an underdog. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. I like quarterback Joe Burrow — and would like him even more if played behind an even average offensive line. The Bengals allowed 48 sacks last season — and they have surrendered 10 sacks so far this season despite the Steelers failing to sack Burrow even once. Cincinnati got the memo to run the ball more after Burrow’s season-ending injury last year just to keep Burrow out of harm’s way. The Bengals are running the ball 52% of the time. But that also means that they are scoring only 22.7 Points-Per-Game while averaging just 291.0 total YPG. I am not sold on Taylor as a head coach, yet another beneficiary of once being in the same room as Sean McVay. With offensive coordinator Brian Callahan and defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, he has assembled a support staff that will not threaten his authority. The Bengals are dealing with injuries in their secondary as well. Two starters are likely out with cornerback Chidobe Awuzie doubtful with a groin and free safety Jessie Bates out with a neck injury. Backup safety Ricardo Allen, a free agent signing from Atlanta in the offseason, is on IR. Cincinnati gave up 297 passing yards last week (after surrendering 336 passing yards to the Vikings in Week One) — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Jacksonville held a 19-10 lead against an undefeated Arizona team midway through the third quarter. A 29-yard interception returned for a touchdown near the end of the third quarter gave the Cardinals the lead for good. Turnovers are killing the Jaguars — their nine giveaways are most in the NFL. Lawrence has thrown seven interceptions already this season after not having a problem with picks in his college career at Clemson. Jacksonville had five net close losses within one scoring possession last season. They lost at home to Denver the previous week by a 23-13 score — but the Jaguars have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after losing two in a row by double-digits at home. Jacksonville did rush for 159 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Running the football will protect Lawrence from trying to do too much — and Chicago was able to rush for 123 yards against the Bengals in their only loss so far this season. Cincinnati was 29th in the NFL last year by allowing 148.0 rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Meyer is not used to losing — and this is one of the most getable games on the Jacksonville schedule. With veteran offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell and former Baltimore defensive backs coach Joe Cullen as the defensive coordinator, Meyer has a veteran staff with experience operating on a short week. This should be a close game against a Bengals team feeling very good about themselves. And Burrow is without one of his important weapons in wide receiver Tee Higgins who is out with a shoulder injury. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Jacksonville Jaguars (101) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (498) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (497). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (1-1) looks to rebound from their 17-11 loss at home to San Francisco as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. Dallas (1-1) looks to build off their 20-17 upset win at Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Dallas is highly valued by the betting public right now after following up their nationally-televised 2-point loss at Tampa Bay to open the season with an upset win on the road against Justin Herbert’s Chargers. But the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 47 of their last 69 home games when laying the points. Even if you like the potential of this Cowboys’ team, they have already been hit hard by injuries. Starting defensive linemen DeMarcus Lawrence and Neville Gallimore are both on IR. So is cornerback Kelvin Joseph, their second-round draft pick from Kentucky. Three more depth defensive linemen are out with injuries. Starting strong safety Donovan Wilson is doubtful with a groin injury. A COVID outbreak will keep linebacker Keanu Allen and defensive end Bradley Anae out tonight. On offense, right tackle La’el Collins is suspended for missing drug tests and backup tackle Ty Nsekhe is out with an illness. Wide receiver Michael Gallup is on IR and fellow starting wide receiver Amari Cooper is dealing with a ribs injury (but it looks like he will play). This is just a bunch of attrition for an organization that has not met point spread expectations in situations like this. Dallas did gain 419 yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. The Cowboys allowed 408 yards to the Chargers — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. The Dallas defense gave up 431 yards to the Buccaneers — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 375 yards in two straight games. Philadelphia outgained the 49ers last week by a 328-306 margin despite only having the ball for 25:06 minutes of the game. They averaged 6.2 Yards-Per-Play while holding the Niners to just 4.0 YPP. They crushed Atlanta on the road in their opening game by a 32-6 score. This appears to be a well-coached team. Rookie head coach Nick Sirianni may not be ready for prime-time when it comes to televised press conferences, but his game plans have been sound — and the players seem to have completely bought in. Coordinators Shane Steichen and Jonathan Graham have been effective. Graham’s defense is allowing only 11.5 Points-Per-Game and 283.0 total Yards-Per-Game. Steichen’s offense is generating 381.0 total YPG. They have schemed well for quarterback Jalen Hurts who has been effective with his passing and his rushing. The Eagles hit rock bottom last season but the impact of injuries should not be underestimated. Philadelphia was last in the NFL in adjusted games lost to injury on offense with the wide receiver and offensive line unites decimated. While right guard Brandon Brooks went on IR this week, the line is in much better shape now as is the wide receiver room which was bolstered with the drafting of DeVonta Smith in the first round. Sirianni inherited a pretty good roster. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games played on Monday Night Football. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 appearances on Monday Night Football. And in the Cowboys’ last 6 games against NFC East rivals, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these games. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the Philadelphia Eagles (498) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (497). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (496) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (495). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (2-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 17-11 victory at Philadelphia last Sunday as a 3-point favorite. Green Bay (1-1) comes off a 35-17 win at home against Detroit as an 11.5-point favorite for Monday Night Football.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: The 49ers are dealing with injuries which is situation normal for head coach Kyle Shanahan. San Francisco had 161.6 adjusted games lost to injury last season — and that is before looking at lost time because of COVID — which was the most games lost since the Chicago Bears in 2017. Shanahan and general manager John Lynch have done a great job in establishing depth and developing a next-man up mentality. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 29 games when favored under Shanahan’s leadership. While San Francisco led the NFL with 32 players in Injured Reserve last season, it was the loss of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo that was the biggest loss. Much was made of the Niners selected quarterbacks Trey Lance as the third pick in the NFL, that pick said more about Garoppolo’s propensity to get injured than it did about his talent. Garoppolo led this team to a Super Bowl — and he is healthy right now. Lance offers the team a threat with his legs under center. After not playing much last week, don’t be surprised if Shanahan rope-a-doped the Packers’ coaching staff and will have some special Lance packages for this showdown. The 49ers have been hit hard with injuries at running back — but this is the position on the field most resilient to injuries. Ohio State rookie Trey Sermon oozes with talent after being picked in the third round — and Shanahan has claimed he has looked great in practice this week. The running game is predicated on the offensive line — and this unit is heathy and clicking for the Niners. San Francisco has allowed only one sack so far this season. The 49ers will be playing with revenge from their 34-17 loss at home to Green Bay last year — but that game was played on November 5th when the team was already decimated with injuries. San Francisco not only swept the Packers in their two meetings at Levi’s Stadium in the 2019-20 season, they overwhelmed them by a 74-28 scoring edge. The 49ers controlled the line of scrimmage in both games — and they rushed for 285 yards on 42 carries in the NFC Championship Game that year. Green Bay is soft — they struggle against physical teams. Their best chance of fighting back has been their good offensive line — but injuries and free agent defections leaves them without their three best lineman from the 2019-20 team that got embarrassed. ,b>All-Pro center Corey Linsley was allowed to sign with the Chargers. All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari is still recovering from the torn ACL he suffered on December 31st. And now their emerging stud at left guard (playing left tackle for Bakhtiari), Elgton Jenkins, is out with an ankle which leaves them relying on Yosh Nijman on the left side. I think the Aaron Rodgers drama is a distraction that is eroding the chemistry and morale of this team — but do not underestimate the simple loss of talent on the offensive line for this team. Here comes Nick Bosa and three other former first round picks on the offensive line. In Rodgers’ last four games against the Niners since October 2018, he has been sacked 12 times while losing four fumbles. The Packers were losing at halftime against Detroit on Monday before the Lions’ failed fourth down within field goal range changed the momentum of that game. Green Bay’s defense has surrendered 17 points in the first half in each of their first two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after giving up 17 or more first half points in two straight contests. The Packers’ defense has registered only one sack this season. Cornerback Kenny King has become a liability after getting burned at the end of the first half against Tampa Bay in last year’s NFC Championship Game. Green Bay is also missing their second-best defensive player (to cornerback Jaire Alexander) in linebacker Za’Darius Smith who is on IR with a back injury. Former Michigan first-round draft pick Rashan Gary has disappointed in his development as a pass rusher. Now Green Bay goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in in 7 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The weight of losing two straight NFC Conference Championship Games seems to be too much for the Packers. General manager Brian Gutenkunst poured gasoline on this situation by wasting a precious first round draft pick (and the traded draft picks) for quarterback Jordan Love. Head coach Matt LaFleur demonstrated a lack of confidence in Rodgers by electing to kick a field goal down 8 points late in the NFC Championship Game against Tampa Bay despite being inside the 10-yard line. And now after the team claimed to “not ready to play” in San Francisco in the 2020 NFC Championship Game, this group is going to rally with all this going on — on a short week? I don’t think so. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the  San Francisco 49ers (496) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (495). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (487) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (488). THE SITUATION: Miami (1-1) looks to pick themselves off the mat after a 35-0 loss at home to Buffalo as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Las Vegas (2-0) pulled off their second-straight upset victory in their 26-17 upset win at Pittsburgh as a 5.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a situation too good to pass up despite some injury and offensive line concerns. I am trusting the process — and the wisdom of the point spread — in this one. The Dolphins were completely flat last week in their divisional loss to the Bills. They may have been suffering the hangover of returning from New England where they just beat the Patriots. The early injury to Tua Tagovailoa did not help matters. But Miami ran into a buzzsaw that was an angry Bills team coming off an upset loss to Pittsburgh. There is nothing like an NFL team getting shut out that will generate attentive minds in practice the next week. In Brian Flores, I Trust in righting the Dolphins’ ship this week. Miami has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after a loss by 14 or more points. The Dolphins have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. And in their last 11 games after surrendering at least 30 points, Miami has covered the point spread 10 times. The Dolphins have a good defense that was tied for fifth in the league by allowing 21.1 PPG last season. Miami led the NFL in third-down defense, three-and-outs, and yards allowed per drive, and takeaways last season. They were also fourth in the league in Red Zone points allowed. They held the Bills to just 314 yards last week despite the 35 points. After gaining only 214 total yards, the Dolphins need to reconfigure their offense. Flores has overseen the reshuffling of their offensive line. Getting wide receiver Will Fuller into the mix after the former Houston Texan missed the opening two games help — he is a speedster who had eight touchdowns in eleven games last year. Fuller alongside rookie Jaylen Waddle could be a game-changer for this offense. Jacoby Brissett completed only 24 of 40 passes for 169 yards in relief last week — but the veteran is one of the better backups in the league with 32 career starts. He has tossed 31 career touchdown passes to just 14 interceptions — and he adds a threat with his legs. Miami has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. The Dolphins have also covered the point spread in 5 straight road games with the Total set at 42.5 to 45 — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games as an underdog. Miami has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Las Vegas may be due for an emotional letdown after pulling off two straight upset victories. We had the Raiders in their home opener with fans finally in Allegiant Stadium in their Monday night upset win against Baltimore. And while most of the world faded Las Vegas last week at Pittsburgh, we successfully avoided that trap (the Steelers' side of that situation was unappealing). Now the Raiders return home triumphant heroes — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after two straight upset wins. Las Vegas has not been a reliable favorite under head coach Jon Gruden. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. They will likely be without starting running back Josh Jacobs and right guard Richie Incognito. Missing Jacobs will put more pressure on Derek Carr.  the Raiders only rushed for 52 yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. And while Carr has passed for at least 373 yards in his first two games, Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after passing for at least 300 yards in two straight games. The Raiders’ defense has played better (the August acquisitions of linebackers K.J. Wright and Denzel Perryman was massive for this team to overcome general manager Mike Mayock’s whiffs in the draft) — but I am not sold that this is an elite unit quite yet. Baltimore gained 406 yards against them before Ben Roethlisberger passed for 292 yards last week.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games against the Raiders. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the Miami Dolphins (487) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (488). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Football Team (462) minus the point(s) (or plus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Chargers (461). THE SITUATION: Washington (0-0) comes off a 7-9 campaign which was still good enough to win the NFC East before giving Tampa Bay a competitive contest in a 31-23 loss in an NFC Wildcard playoff matchup last January. Los Angeles (0-0) won their last four games of the season to conclude a 7-9 season last year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FOOTBALL TEAM MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): The Chargers opened as a small favorite in this game before the line moved to see Washington a small favorite as of this writing. I do not like this spot for Los Angeles. It is always an extra challenge for west coast teams to travel east to play in a 1 PM ET game with the body clocks thinking it is 10 AM. The Chargers sacked head coach Anthony Lynn for not winning enough close games in his four-year tenure — despite his team winning three games by just three points in their closing four-game winning streak. 38-year-old Brandon Staley is the new head coach after serving as the defensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams last season. First-year head coaches have a spotty record in their opening games in the league — they are 1-12-1 straight-up, an ominous number given the point spread in this contest. I am more optimistic long-term about this team than I am for this contest. The defense is going to take a step back given a system change and a loss of talent. Melvin Ingram and Denzel Perryman must be replaced in the front seven and the secondary replaces Casey Hayward and Rayshawn Jenkins. The Chargers are banking on injured players like Joey Bosa and Derwin James to immediately return to form. But Staley’s defensive system is much different than previous defensive coordinator Gus Bradley’s schemes. Staley’s success with the Rams came from an aggressive man defense with two high safeties — but we will see if having Aaron Donald controlling the line of scrimmage was essential for that system to thrive. The run defense ranked 26th in the league in Football Outsiders DVOA metric — and it might get worse this season with the system change. Staley embraced the new-school philosophy of Sean McVay to not play starters in the preseason games — so the best reps his team got to implement his packages were in joint practices. The offensive line breaks in four new starters which is a terrifying thought against this Washington defensive line. Second-year quarterback Justin Herbert was great in his rookie campaign — but he is not likely to make a big leap this season since his first year was so good. The analytics suggest his next growth spurt in development will occur in his third season. The data also indicates that he is likely to see regression in how he handles pass-rush pressure and in third-down efficiency. Top running back Austin Ekeler is questionable to play with a hamstring. Staley inherits a team that is just 4-9-2 ATS in their last 15 games in September. The Chargers have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Washington may still be underappreciated for their losing record last year despite overcoming a 1-5 start. They gave the Buccaneers one of the most difficult games in their Super Bowl run. They should be even better in the second year of the Ron Rivera regime. The Football Team’s defense is ferocious with four former first-round draft picks anchoring the front four. With Chase Young, Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen, and Montez Sweat, coordinator Jack Del Rio can generate a pass rush without blitzing — allowing him to have more players in pass coverage. Washington rushed only four defenders 68% of the time last season — a simple but devastating formula for success if it still pressures the opposing QB. The Football Team allowed only 1.69 points per drive last season — the third-lowest mark in the league. The unit added linebacker Jamin Davis in the first round of the NFL draft and cornerback William Jackson from Cincinnati who possesses elite cover skills. The defense did not allow more than 20 points in their final seven regular-season games. On offense, I like the addition of Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. The veteran has a reputation for being loose with the football — but he has usually played for bad teams. This is the best defense the former Harvard quarterback has played with. He will operate a sophisticated offensive under coordinator Scott Turner that emphasized getting rid of the football quickly into the hands of speedy playmakers. There is depth on the offensive line and at wide receiver. Washington has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on their home field.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games where they were listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Football Team has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games in expected close games listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Washington Football Team (462) minus the point(s) (or plus) the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Chargers (461). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (102) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (101). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (14-5) upset Green Bay in the NFC Championship Game by a 31-26 score as a 2.5-point underdog. Kansas City (16-2) defeated Buffalo by a 38-24 score as a 2.5-point favorite in the AFC Championship Game to advance to their opportunity to defend their Super Bowl championship from last season. This game will be played in Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay making the Buccaneers the first team to playing in their home stadium in a Super Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Kansas City played their best game of the 2020-21 season against the Bills in their two-touchdown victory. That is the Chiefs’ team I expected to show-up in the second half in our 25* play on KC against Cleveland. And we had Patrick Mahomes and company against Buffalo last week — so I do not recommend betting against the reigning champs lightly. I was tickled when hearing the pundits talk about the Chiefs inability to cover point spreads as of late — they went into the AFC Championship Game having only covered the spread once in their previous nine games. As if just winning 15 of 17 games was not impressive enough. Yet it took 45 minutes of great football from the Chiefs (after falling behind 9-0) for the conventional wisdom to dramatically shift to just how invincible they are. The truth is somewhere in the middle. But it remains hard to repeat as a Super Bowl champion — and Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not covering the point spread more than once in their last three games. The Chiefs have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning at least six or seven of their last eight games. Additionally, Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win at home — which is usually when the public starts bandwagoning Mahomes again. The DVOA metrics at Football Outsider consider the Buccaneers the best team in the NFL (and before home field advantage). I do take their numbers with a few grains of salt — a bettor will go bankrupt fast relying exclusively on them. But, their analytics provide evidence that the Chiefs are perhaps overvalued in this game. And that is before the injury situation — which I consider severe. I have worried all postseason about KC being without right tackle Mitchell Schwartz who is on Injured Reserve with a back injury. Head coach Andy Reid said that he did not expect Schwartz to be available for the Super Bowl. The Achilles’ injury to Eric Fisher late in the Bills’ game leaves the Chiefs without their starting tackles — and the Buccaneers’ pass rush is ferocious now that have Vita Vea and Shaq Barrett back from injury to join Ndamukong Suh clogging the middle and Jason Pierre-Paul rushing from the outside. I do begin to worry about Mahomes’ left toe a bit when thinking about him missing both tackles — he was better on Sunday but not 100%. Tampa Bay was always going to be a work-in-progress in a year without a full training camp to get Tom Brady in-synch with head coach Bruce Arians. Adding Leonard Fournette and then Antonio Brown midseason to a team already loaded with talent at the skill positions made the challenge more difficult — but this team is peaking at the right time with two weeks to further grow. Since their loss to the Chiefs by a 27-24 score on November 29th, Tampa Bay is 7-0 with an average winning margin of +13.7 PPG while averaging 34.3 PPG and 424.0 Yards-Per-Game. Home field is also significant — not for the cheering crowd, which doesn’t hurt. The Buccaneers getting to play in a Super Bowl in their comfortable and familiar facilities while sleeping in their own beds is a big deal.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as a favorite. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 4 straight games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as an underdog. The Buccaneers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they will be a bit better on February 7th than they were when they last played over two months ago. 25* NFL Super Bowl *A-List* Special with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (102) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (101). Best of luck for us — Frank (and look for my Super Bowl Prop Bets Report the morning of the Super Bowl).

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (312) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (311). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (14-3) has won seven games in a row after their 32-18 victory over the Los Angeles Rams last Saturday as a 9.5-point favorite. Tampa Bay (13-5) has won six games in a row with their 30-20 upset win at New Orleans as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Buccaneers are playing the best football of their season right now which is just how head coach Bruce Arians and quarterback Tom Brady planned. However, this is a very challenging situation for them to travel up to Lambeau Field under their recent circumstances. They overcame a huge obstacle in upsetting the Saints on the road after they had lost the previous two times against this season by a combined 72-26 score. They also benefited from a +4 net turnover margin on Sunday. They are not likely to be so fortunate against a Packers team that has a +6 net turnover margin this season and that has only turned the ball over 12 times all year. Green Bay has committed only two turnovers in their last seven games — and Aaron Rodgers has just five interceptions all season. Part of head coach Matt LaFleur’s system is to ask Rodgers to do less in the passing game. It is working. And Tampa Bay is now playing their third straight game away from home which adds to the stress and complications of their situation. The Bucs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing their last two games away from home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 35 games after pulling off an upset win. Additionally, Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games this season after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Buccaneers are also surviving high-scoring games with at least 50 combined points scored in five straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after playing at least three straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored. We had Tampa Bay last week — but did so understanding that the Bucs had a 1-5 record against teams that made the playoffs (during the regular season). Every other team playing in the divisional round had registered at least four victories against teams that made the playoffs. Tampa Bay’s six-game winning streak came against Atlanta (twice), Detroit, Minnesota, and then Washington and New Orleans in the playoffs. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games as an underdog getting up to 7 points. Green Bay will be very comfortable in this situation being led by Rodgers. They dominated the Rams by a 484 to 244 margin in yards — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Packers have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 playoff games at home. And in their last 10 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points, Green Bay has covered the point spread in 7 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers will retain a significant home-field edge — not only in not traveling this week and playing in front of a loud crowd (as were the reports last week) even if not at full capacity at Lambeau Field last week. Yet the biggest edge for Green Bay in this game is that they will be very comfortable in playing in the cold weather. The Packers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in January — and Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in January. 25* NFC Game of the Year with the Green Bay Packers (312) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (306) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (305). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (14-2) rested starters with the top seed in the AFC playoffs locked last week in a 38-21 loss to the Los Angels Chargers as a 7-point underdog. Cleveland (12-5) has won their last two games as well as seven of their last nine contests after their 48-37 upset win at Pittsburgh as a 5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: I really liked the situation for the Browns in that playoff game playing with no pressure given all the COVID adversity with the Steelers seeming to dismiss that their AFC North “younger brother” offered any threat with Ben Roethlisberger owning a 13-0 record at home against Cleveland in his career. Well, I “so right” about the Browns that it ruined our bigger play on the Under. With hindsight being 20/20, upgrading the Under play above the Cleveland side play was the sound fundamental play given the evidence at hand. That opening fumble in the end zone that the Brown recovered and then Roethlisberger throwing four interceptions to help Cleveland go into halftime with a 35-10 lead changed the entire dynamic of that game (while forcing the Steelers to abandon the run for their 2-minute offense). In winning that playoff game under those circumstances — without their head coach Kevin Stefanski — against their most-hated division rival was not only the Browns winning their Super Bowl but may very well be the biggest victory in the Super Bowl era. I like Baker Mayfield and this team when they can play with a chip on their shoulder about being disrespected. I hate Baker Mayfield and this team when they start feeling themselves after experiencing positive results. It will be an emotional two weeks by kickoff — and that is difficult to sustain for even the most battle-tested veteran group. The team hopes Stefanski returns to the building on Thursday. I expect Cleveland to be flat in this game despite playing with the proverbial “house money”. Let’s look at the team trends regarding how this team responds to situations like this. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a win on the road by at least 10 points against an AFC North rival. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. And while Cleveland needed to defeat Pittsburgh in Week 17 to make the playoffs, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning their last two against divisional opponents. And remember how unimpressive the Browns were in eking out that 24-22 win against Mason Rudolph and the Steelers’ second string? This is a team with Bluto for Animal House’s 0.0 when it comes to their net PPG differential — and they are outgained in yardage on the season. On the road, Cleveland was outscored and outgained. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games on the road — and this is an uber-difficult fourth game in their last five away from home. Winning the turnover battle in the last two weeks certainly helps — but the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after enjoying a +1 or better net turnover edge in their last two games. Here comes rested Kansas City under head coach Andy Reid who has covered the point spread in 19 of his 29 games when getting the benefit of a bye week. Worried about the Chiefs only covering the point spread once in their last eight games? KC has covered the point spread in 31 of their last 46 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Worried about the Browns running the ball against a run defense that experts at Football Outsiders (who do not incorporate Time of Possession into their metrics) rank as the 31st in the NFL in DVOA? Well, this was an issue last year as well in their Super Bowl championship run. Cleveland won’t be running the ball when down 10 points. The bigger question is how will the Browns’ pass defense that allows 262.5 passing YPG which is 25th in the league (and DVOA! ranks this unit 25th against the pass, as well) stop Patrick Mahomes? Not only has their secondary been banged up all year, but the Browns also lost their second-best pass rusher in Olivier Vernon to a season-ending injury. The Cleveland defense is not good at this point of the season. Big Ben passed for 501 yards against them on Sunday — and Rudolph passed for 309 yards while leading an offense that gained 394 yards. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing their last two opponents to average at least 450 YPG. Cleveland is also 9-26-2 ATS in their last 37 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games at home. And all this assumes the best case scenario with Cleveland getting everyone back who were in quarantine last week because of COVID. To quote Larry David, this situation is “pretty, pretty, pretty good” (with the caveat that there are never anything “sure things” — but this is as good as it gets. Please don’t bet the house). 25* National Football League Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (306) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (302) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (301). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (13-3) returns to action off a bye week after defeating Chicago on the road by a 35-16 score on January 3rd as a 4.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (11-6) has won two in a row after defeating Seattle on the road as a 3-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Rams may be due for a letdown after pulling off that upset victory against their NFC South rival — they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit victory. Los Angeles has also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after pulling off an upset win on the road against a divisional foe. Additionally, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning their last two games — and while they covered the point spread in those two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in their last two games. With John Wolford dealing with the neck injury he suffered against the Seahawks, Jared Goff will be the starting quarterback in this game. Under normal circumstances, I worry about the California product playing in cold weather — he does not have a great history playing in the cold in those rare occasions in his career. Yet asking Goff to control a hardened ball from the cold with screws in his hand may be too much to ask. Highs are expected to be in the 30s for this game. Goff completed just 9 of 19 passes last week for 155 yards. The Rams’ offense relied on their ground game as they rushed for 164 yards — but Los Angeles has then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. This is an offense that is scoring only 19.0 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 333.3 total YPG in those games. This is old hat for Green Bay — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win against a divisional rival. They return home to Lambeau Field where they are 7-1 this season with an average winning margin of +12.1 net PPG. They are holding their guests to just 19.5 PPG along with 308.9 total YPG. They are also scoring 31.6 PPG while averaging 406.9 YPG in their eight home games. The Packers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Green Bay has scored at least 24 points in nine straight games with them reaching 30 points in seven of those contests. Furthermore, the Packers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the playoffs — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoffs games at home in the Green Bay cold weather. Aaron Rodgers’ team has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: The favorite has covered the point spread in 9 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams — and the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in the last 6 of these games. It is tough to see Goff at less than 100% keeping up with Rodgers at Lambeau Field. 25* NFC Divisional Playoff Game of the Year with the Green Bay Packers (302) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (150) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (149). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (12-4) has won two games in a row with their 33-7 win at Carolina last Sunday as a 6-point favorite. Chicago (8-8) saw their three-game winning streak end last week with their 35-16 loss at Green Bay as a 4.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS: New Orleans should build off their momentum off a divisional game where I thought they might be vulnerable against an underdog playing the role of the spoiler. Instead, the Saints outclassed their NFC South rival who, like the Bears, were motivated by same-season revenge. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Saints have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. New Orleans is scoring 38.0 PPG in their last three games while averaging 405.0 Yards-Per-Game over that span. They return home where they are scoring 31.6 PPG. The Saints are also fourth in the league by allowing only 310.9 total YPG. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Chicago backed into the playoffs despite the loss to the Packers. They have been outgained by -13.5 net YPG this season. The Bears are not likely to respond with an inspired effort after their loss to Green Bay as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. Chicago has also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after a double-digit loss at home. Mitchell Trubisky completed 33 of 42 passes for 252 yards in the losing effort — but he did throw an interception without a touchdown pass. Improved play from the offensive line has helped Trubisky to put up better numbers in this second stint as the Bears’ starting quarterback this season. But that game against the Packers was the first time this team played a playoff team since November 29th when they lost at home to Green Bay by a 41-26 score. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season. In theory, the Bears’ defense is supposed to keep them in games — and their frontline numbers looked decent last week as they only gave up 316 yards to the Packers. But Chicago allowed Green Bay to average 7.34 Yards-Per-Play — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 7.0 YPP. The Bears stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 8 games in the playoffs, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread 6 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and New Orleans has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games with the total set in that 42.5 to 49 range. 25* NFC Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the New Orleans Saints (150) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (149). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Washington Football Team (146) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (145). THE SITUATION: Washington (7-9) has won five of their last seven games after their 20-14 win at Philadelphia last Sunday night as a 6.5-point favorite. Tampa Bay (11-5) has won four games in a row after the crushed Atlanta last week by a 44-27 score as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FOOTBALL TEAM PLUS THE POINTS: I am not a zombie blindly following these numbers — but Tom Brady has been underachieving in night games. Not only have the Buccaneers lost three of their four prime-time games but they have not covered the spread in all 4 games. Furthermore, Brady has not covered the point spread in 7 straight prime-time games going back to his New England days last season. Those numbers are not encouraging — and I do give even more stock into the fact that Tampa Bay lost five of their six games against teams that made the playoffs. Brady and head coach Bruce Arians just want to win — they don’t care about covering a point spread. The Bucs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games when laying 7.5 to 10 points. They may due for an emotional letdown as well as they are 4-9-2 ATS in their last 15 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in their last two games as well — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in their last two games. Washington is a much better team with Alex Smith at quarterback — they have won five of the six games he has started this season. His numbers are not great — but I think he can move the team down the field if pressed to be more than a game manager not making mistakes. Smith should find success against a vulnerable Tampa Bay pass defense that allows 247 passing YPG which is 21st in the league. The Football Team has an outstanding defense that it is second in the NFL by allowing only 304.6 YPG. They have a great pass rush that fits the profile that has given Brady problems in the past in that they can rotate fresh bodies while generating pressure from a four-man front without relying on a blitz that takes away someone in pass coverage. Washington is sixth in the NFL with 47 sacks. In their last three games, the Football Team has only allowed 18.0 PPG along with just 266.0 total YPG. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a narrow win by 6 points or less. They also have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: I love this situation for Washington who can play in their familiar building without any pressure. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog. Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games as a favorite. 25* NFL ABC-TV Game of the Year with the Washington Football Team (146) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (145). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (141) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (142). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (11-5) has won four of their last five games after their 28-14 win against Jacksonville last Sunday as a 15.5-point favorite. Buffalo (13-3) has won six games in a row with their 56-26 upset win against Miami as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bills have been a freight-train in the second half of the season with all six of their victories being by double-digits. Quarterback Josh Allen has taken his game to the next level — fueled by a rigorous offseason program motivated by his embarrassing performance in the playoffs last year. But I expect things to become more difficult for Buffalo — especially against this Indianapolis team that can deploy the strategy that has given them the biggest problems this season. The Bills are small upfront on defense after losing some important players from last season that were then magnified when defensive tackle Star Lotulelei opted-out this season. Buffalo is allowing opposing rushers to average 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry which is 26th in the league. In their three losses this season, the Bills were torched on the ground. Tennessee ran the ball 34 times for 139 yards while also using the commitment to their ground game to set up play-action passes in their 42-16 thrashing of Buffalo. Kansas City ran the ball 46 times for 245 yards in their 26-17 victory over the Bills. And Arizona ran the ball 35 times for 257 yards in a 32-30 upset victory that ended with that Hail Mary touchdown pass to DeAndre Hopkins. Indy can deploy a similar strategy with rookie running back Jonathan Taylor peaking just in time for the playoffs. The former Wisconsin Badger ran the ball 30 times for 253 yards with two touchdowns in the Colts’ win against the Jaguars. Over his last six games, Taylor has rushed for 741 yards with a 6.2 Yards-Per-Carry average along with seven touchdowns. As it is, Buffalo looks primed for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after winning four games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning five in a row. And while the Bills were underdogs against the Dolphins because they had little at stake last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset win as a home underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset win at home by at least two touchdowns. Buffalo has also failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 42 games after a double-digit win over an AFC East foe. Additionally, while the Bills are 7-1 at home, they are being outgained by -18.3 net YPG in those games. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win over an AFC South rival — and they have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after a double-digit win over a divisional rival. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least two straight games. Furthermore, Indy has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Additionally, the Colts have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo is averaging 396.4 YPG — but Indy has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams who average at least 350 YPG. The Bills are banged up at wide receiver Stefan Diggs probable but dealing with an oblique and Cole Beasley questionable with a knee. Allen needs both at peak effectiveness. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the Indianapolis Colts (141) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (108) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Dallas Cowboys (107). THE SITUATION: New York (5-10) has lost three straight games after their 27-13 loss at Baltimore as a 10-point underdog last Sunday. Dallas (6-9) has won three straight games with their 37-17 upset win at Philadelphia as a 3-point underdog. The winner of this game puts themselves in position to make the playoffs from winning the NFC East if Washington loses on Sunday Night Football.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): New York has lost three straight games — but they have all been against good teams looking to qualify for the playoffs in Arizona, Cleveland and then the Ravens last week. And while Daniel Jones was at his best this season before his hamstring injury since he was a threat with his legs, he still has been solid in the passing game since his return. He completed 25 of 41 passes for 252 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions last week — and he has not thrown an interception in five straight games. I thought the Giants were perhaps overvalued during their four-game winning streak in the second-half of the season — but they are being too quickly dismissed now. This is a gritty team under first-year head coach Joe Judge that plays solid fundamental football. They should play their best game in a month this afternoon. As it is, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after losing three of their last four games. They fell behind at halftime by a 20-3 score to the Ravens after falling behind by a 13-3 score at halftime to Cleveland the week before — but they have then covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after trailing by double-digits at halftime in two straight games. Additionally, New Giants have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Look for the New York offense to center around Wayne Gallman who has rushed for 617 yards in place of the injured Saquon Barkley. He will be going against the worst run defense in the league that allows 161.1 rushing YPG this season. Facing the Cowboys may be just what the doctor ordered after this difficult stretch of games as the Giants have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. They also have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against divisional opponents. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in January. And in their last 10 games as an underdog, New York has covered the point spread in 7 of these games. Dallas is the toast of the town — again — right now with three straight wins including the last two as upset victories over the 49ers and then the Eagles last week. Their victory over the Bengals started the winning streak — but the Cowboys have not beaten a team with a winning record over this stretch. Don’t be surprised if and when Dallas disappoints yet again after playing themselves back into the playoff picture. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 43 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests. The Dallas offense has found a rhythm as of late with Andy Dalton under center as they have scored at least 30 points in three straight games. But the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 30 points in three straight games. They generated 513 yards again the Eagles’ defense — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. But the Cowboys have up 477 yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Now this team goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games away from home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road in January. Furthermore, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread 16 of their last 21 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in these last six situations.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against divisional opponents. They did defeat the Giants at home on October 11th by a 37-34 score as a 7.5-point favorite — but New York has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with revenge. 25* NFC East Game of the Year with the New York Giants (108) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Dallas Cowboys (107). Best of luck for us — Frank.

A 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (469) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Washington Football Team (470). THE SITUATION: Carolina (4-10) has lost three straight games as well as eight of their last nine contests after their 24-16 loss at Green Bay last Saturday as a 9.5-point underdog. Washington (6-8) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last Sunday with their 20-15 loss at home to Seattle.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): The news that Alex Smith would be out for the Football Team leaving Dwayne Haskins as their starting quarterback is enough to push the Panthers from a 10*/20* range to a strong 25* play. Carolina is underrated. They have been in a position to win or tie the game in the fourth quarter in all eight of their losses — and they are a frustrating 2-8 in games decided by one scoring possession. Despite their record, the Panthers are only being outgained by -2.3 net YPG — and they are losing the yardage battle by just -1.7 net YPG in their seven road games. Despite losing three in a row, they have outgained their opponents by +21.6 net YPG after dominating the Packers last Saturday in that department by a 364 to 291 yardage margin. These are the underlying numbers of a team that would usually be 7-7. In an expected close game that will likely be decided in the fourth quarter, I will take Teddy Bridgewater over Haskins. The veteran is completing 69.8% of his passes for 3360 yards this season. Carolina has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while they trailed at halftime last week by a 21-3 score, the Panthers have then covered the point spread in 29 of their last 41 games after not scoring more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. Now this team stays on the road where they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a straight-up loss. And while the Football Team gave up 181 rushing yards to the Seahawks last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. Haskins completed 38 of 55 passes for 295 yards last week — but he also threw two interceptions. He is completing only 62.9% of his passes this season with just a 6.0 Yards-Per-Attempt average. He has five interceptions along with five touchdown passes. He also seems to have completely lost the confidence of the coaching staff and teammates. Remember, he was relegated to the third-string quarterback early in the season — he is starting this game only because of injuries to Smith and Kyle Allen. Haskins breaking COVID protocols by visiting an adult establishment last week does not inspire confidence about his leadership skills. The announcement that Smith cannot play was likely demoralizing for this team fighting for a playoff spot. The Football Team has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against a team with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Carolina will be doubly motivated — not only to play the role of spoiler to Washington’s playoff hopes but in facing their former coach in Ron Rivera. While Rivera was well-liked, facing their old coach should ensure a spring in the steps of this Panthers team. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Carolina Panthers (469) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Washington Football Team (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (466) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (465). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (11-3) is reeling with three straight losses after their embarrassing 27-17 upset loss at Cincinnati on Monday as a 14.5-point favorite. Indianapolis (10-4) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six contests after their 27-20 win against Houston as a 7.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINTS: We had the Bengals as out AFC North Game of the Year — so I am well aware of the problems of this Steelers’ team right now. They are decimated by injuries at linebacker and their offensive line is beat-up. And Big Ben Roethlisberger looks old and cannot deliver the ball down the field. Got it. But this a good buy-low spot for Pittsburgh. Part of the problem with the Bengals’ game was that the Steelers were taking them lightly while it was the de-facto Super Bowl for Cincinnati. Pittsburgh did play better in the second half of that game but could not rally from the 17-0 hole they dug themselves at halftime. The Steelers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games at home after an upset loss to an AFC North rival — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after a double-digit loss to a divisional foe. Part of the problem for Pittsburgh has been their lack of running game — their 86 rushing yards last week were the most they generated in their last four contests. But the Steelers have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not rushing for at least 100 yards in three straight games. Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning at least three games in a row. Pittsburgh does expect a healthier James Connor for this game which should help them get their ground game going again. Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning at least three games in a row. And while the Colts have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in at least two straight games. Indianapolis defeated the Texans last week despite being outgained by -75 net yards after surrendering 42 yards. The Colts gave up 362 passing yards in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. And while Indy has not allowed more than 90 rushing yards in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not allowing 100 or more rushing yards in at least three straight games. The Colts’ defense has taken a step back as of late as they have allowed their last three opponents to average 415.7 total YPG. Indy is also 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against AFC opponents. Look for a desperate and angry Steelers team to play their best game in a month. 20* NFL Indianapolis-Pittsburgh CBS-TV Special with the Pittsburgh Steelers (466) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (465). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (370) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (369). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (2-10-1) has lost five games in a row after their 30-7 loss at home to Dallas last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. Pittsburgh (11-2) has lost two games in a row with their 26-13 loss at Buffalo last Sunday night as a 2-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a good opportunity to offer the reminder that we don’t bet on teams — we bet on point spreads. The Steelers are in no position to be a favorite of around two touchdowns to anybody right now. Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 44 games as a double-digit favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games when favored by 10.5 to 14 points. Ben Roethlisberger is banged up right now. He denies he has a knee issue but he lacks any ability to move in the pocket and he is having difficulty planting his foot for deeper balls. Pittsburgh is limited to mostly quick passes which Roethlisberger is still good at. However, when opposing defenses can key-in on these quick strikes and lay off worrying too much about deep balls, then this approach can get stuck in the mud. The Steelers have not scored more than 19 points in three straight games. Pittsburgh is averaging only 294.7 total YPG during that stretch. To compound matters, the Steelers are getting very little from their running game. They have run for only 136 combined yards in their last three games. Pittsburgh has not rushed for more than 48 yards in five of their last seven games. James Conner has been injured but he ran the ball only ten times for 17 yards in his return to action last week. He is questionable tonight with the quad injury that has slowed him down. The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. And while these problems on offense has contributed to them playing four straight Unders, Pittsburgh has then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing four straight Unders. Furthermore, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. And in their last 6 games in December, Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread all 6 times. Cincinnati should play well after their embarrassing effort at home. Not only have the Bengals covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss but they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a double-digit loss at home. Cincinnati has been pretty sneaky good at home this season before laying an egg against the Cowboys in that Andy Dalton revenge game. The Bengals have a 2-point loss to New England and a 3-point loss to Cleveland at home — and their two wins against Tennessee and Tennessee were at home. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. They are down to their third-string quarterback tonight with Ryan Finley with Joe Burrow out the season and then Brandon Allen being declared out tonight with a knee injury. Finley has plenty of NFL experience — he has thrown 106 passes in the regular season for 549 yards with two touchdown passes. Finley cannot be much worse than Allen as the Bengals have not scored more than 17 points in five straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after not scoring more than 17 points in five straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati will be looking to avenge a 36-10 loss at Pittsburgh on November 15th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with same-season revenge. 25* AFC North Game of the Year with the Cincinnati Bengals (370) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (369). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (362) plus the point versus the Cleveland Browns (361). THE SITUATION: New York (5-8) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last week with their 26-7 loss to Arizona as a 3-point underdog. Cleveland (9-4) comes off their dramatic 47-42 loss to Baltimore on Monday Night Football as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York has plenty to play for in this game with a victory giving them a tie for first place in the NFC East after Washington lost to Seattle this afternoon. The Giants have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. New York has also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. And while the Giants managed only 159 total yards last week, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Daniel Jones was back under center last week but he might have been rushed back on the field with his hamstring injury. Jones has been a threat with his legs but that injury left him immobile in the pocket — he was sacked six times. The veteran Colt McCoy will be starter again tonight after he was the starter two weeks ago when the Giants upset Seattle on the road. The New York defense has been the catalyst to their improved play. They have held their last three opponents to jut 18.3 PPG along with 290.7 total YPG. The Giants have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games as an underdog. Cleveland is vulnerable to being satisfied with their competitive loss to the Ravens on Monday — this is a group that too often makes their own announcement as to just how good they are. Yet the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss — and they are just 16-41-1 ATS in their last 58 games after a straight-up loss. Cleveland has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football. Despite their 9-4 record, the Browns are being outscored by -1.5 PPG. They go on the road where they are being outgained by -24.2 net YPG while being outscored by -6.9 PPG despite their 4-2 record. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a losing record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as a favorite. Cleveland may win this game — but this should be a close game. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the New York Giants (362) plus the point versus the Cleveland Browns (361). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (358) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (357). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-7) looks to bounce back from their 26-14 loss at Tampa Bay last week as a 7-point underdog. Chicago (6-7) snapped a six-game losing streak last Sunday with their 36-7 upset victory at home against Houston as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota has been very reliable when placed in the bounce-back mode as they have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 51 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss. The Vikings have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Minnesota did get 162 rushing yards last week with Delvin Cook leading the way which is a good sign for this game as they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. They return home for the last time for this game where they are scoring a healthy 29.1 PPG while averaging 419.3 total YPG. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 37 of their last 56 home games with the total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range including covering the spread in five of these last six situations. Chicago enjoyed a transcendent game from Mitchell Trubisky who completed 24 of 33 passes for 267 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. But look for the Bears to take a step back as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Chicago has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road after a win by at least three touchdowns. And while the Bears dominated the Texans by outgaining them by +153 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +150 net yards. That game was the first time that Chicago had met point spread expectations in their last five games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after only covering the point spread once in their last four contests. They go back on the road where they are being outscored by -3.7 net PPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 road games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Despite the strong defensive effort last week, they have still allowed their last three opponents to score 27.3 PPG while averaging 372.0 total YPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Additionally, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against NFC North foes — and the Vikings have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against divisional foes. Chicago will be playing with revenge on their minds after losing at home to Minnesota by a 19-13 score as a 3-point underdog — but the home team has still covered the point spread in 7 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams. 25* NFC North Game of the Year with the Minnesota Vikings (358) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (357). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (346) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (345). THE SITUATION: Denver (5-8) snapped a two-game losing streak last Sunday with their 32-27 upset victory at Carolina as a 4-point underdog. Buffalo (10-3) comes off a high-profile victory last Sunday night against Pittsburgh by a 26-13 score as a 2-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bills doubled-up the Steelers score last week despite gaining only 334 yards of offense. But this Buffalo team may be due for an emotional letdown now facing a 5-8 Broncos team on the road. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 48 games after winning at least four of their last five games — including failing to cover the point spread in four of these last six circumstances. Buffalo has won ten of their thirteen games despite only outgaining their opponents by +11.6 net YPG. And while they are 4-2 in their six games on the road, they have a flat net PPG margin of 0.0 in those contests. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. And while Buffalo is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 65.9% of their passes, the Broncos have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games against teams who allow their opponents to complete at least 64% of his passes. Drew Lock comes off his best game in the NFL last week as he completed 21 of his 27 passes of 280 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions. He led an offense that generated 365 yards — and Denver has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while the Broncos have lost four of their last six games, the Broncos have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after losing four or five of their last six games. Denver has lost the turnover battle in five straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after enduring a -1 or worse net turnover margin in at least four straight contests. The Broncos have suffered some key injuries on defense this season — but they have still held their guests to just 336.0 YPG when playing at home. This Denver is dealing with some significant injuries (and one suspension) — and they are particularly thin at cornerback for this game. That is certainly not ideal — but head coach Vic Fangio is a defensive coach who is as good as it gets in finding solutions. Remember, we are not betting teams, we are betting point spreads that take into account injuries before the market gets involved. The good news is that Denver does expect to have their vastly improved left tackle Grant Bolles as well as tight end Noah Fant available for this game (and I am not too worried about them not having their top place kicker, Brandon McManus, either — they have been working with a backup kicker after their quarterback debacle that left them without options a few weeks ago).

FINAL TAKE: Denver has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against AFC opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in December. Look for the Broncos to keep this game close as they embrace the role of the spoiler without any pressure in this game. 25* NFL Network Game of the Year with the Denver Broncos (346) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (345). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (177) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Buffalo Bills (178). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (11-1) suffered their first loss of the season on Monday in their 23-17 upset loss at home to Washington as a 5.5-point favorite. Buffalo (9-3) has won two straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 34-24 upset win at San Francisco as a 1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): The loss on Monday may have been a bit of a relief to head coach Mike Tomlin who has been complaining about the play of his team despite their unbeaten record before that setback. Tomlin likely had an attentive team this week in practice. Pittsburgh needs to get back to running the football more after putting too much pressure on Ben Roethlisberger to carry the offense with his arm. Big Ben has attempted at least 45 passes in five straight games. The talented wide receiving corps has been feeling the pressure with their league-leading 34 dropped passes this season. Fortunately, Tomlin expects his All-Pro center, Maurkice Pouncey, and running back James Conner back for this game just in time. This team should back to basics — run the ball, don’t ask too much of your quarterback, and lean your our outstanding defense. The Steel Curtain leads the NFL by allowing only 17.6 PPG this season — and they are third in the league by giving up only 300.5 total YPG. They have suffered injuries at linebacker with Bud Dupree joining Devin Bush in incurring a season-ending injury — but they still only allowed 13.3 PPG along with 247.7 YPG in their last three games. As it is, the Steelers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Now Pittsburgh goes back on the road where they are 5-0 with an average winning margin of +9.2 PPG. The Steelers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Furthermore, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games as an underdog — and they are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games as an underdog. Buffalo may be due for a letdown after their high-profile win in prime-time on Monday. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 47 games after winning four of their last five games. Despite their 9-3 record, Buffalo is only outgaining their opponents by +3.4 YPG. The Bills’ defense has taken a step back this season as they are allowing 375.4 total YPG which is 21st in the league. This unit lost some key pieces from the group that was third in total defense last season — their heart-and-soil leader, Lorenzo Alexander, retired in the offseason and defensive linemen Jordan Phillips and Shaq Lawson along with cornerback Kevin Johnson were  all poached in free agency. Defensive tackle Star Lotuleilei then opted out because of COVID. These losses have left this Bills’ defense small — they are allowing their opponents to average 126.0 rushing YPG which is 9th worst in the league. The Niners’ offense led by Nick Mullens gained 402 yards against them on Monday — and they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams from the AFC — and Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against AFC foes. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year with the Pittsburgh Steelers (177) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Buffalo Bills (178). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (102) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (101). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-4) has won three of their last four games with their 38-28 win at Arizona as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. New England (6-6) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 45-0 victory in Los Angeles against the Chargers.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles had their offensive clicking on all cylinders against the Cardinals. They held the ball for 38:53 minutes while cranking out 463 yards. Quarterback Jared Goff completed 37 of 47 passes for 351 yards. The Rams should build off their momentum for this game as they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they are 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Additionally, while LA generated 30 first downs against Arizona, they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games after controlling the clock for at least 34 minutes while gaining at least 34 first downs in their last game. The Rams shined on defense as well as they held the Cardinals’ offensive attack to just 232 yards. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least 150 yards. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as a favorite laying 3.5 to 7 points. New England outclassed the Chargers last week despite only gaining 291 total yards. The Patriots scored two special teams touchdowns from a 70-yard punt return for a touchdown along with a 44-yard blocked field goal returned for a TD. But Bill Belichick’s team has not been very good at maintaining consistency as they are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread victory. New England is also 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Patriots have simplified their game-plan with Cam Newton under center to be a run-first team that does not try to rely on his arm. Newton attempted only 19 passes on Sunday for a mere 69 yards. New England is third in the NFL by averaging 150.9 rushing YPG — but they now face the stout Rams’ defense that is third in the league by holding their opponents to just 93.1 rushing YPG. If the Patriots do not find success running the football, they lack a credible Plan B. Even if Newton was a better gunslinger at this point of his career, he lacks the weapons at wide receiver to be productive — especially against this Rams secondary which might be the best in the league. Despite their 6-6 record, Los Angeles is getting outgained in yardage this season.

FINAL TAKE: New England has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the final four weeks of the season — and the Rams are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in December. Head coach Sean McVay has been thinking about this opportunity to avenge his team’s loss in Super Bowl 53 for a long time. His team has a decided talent edge this time around. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Rams (102) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (273) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (274). THE SITUATION: Chicago (5-5) has lost four games in a row after their 19-13 loss at home to Minnesota back on November 16th as a 3.5-point underdog. Green Bay (7-3) had their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 34-31 loss in overtime at Indianapolis as a 1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Chicago scored only 6 points in the first half against the Vikings after not scoring in the first half of their last game against Tennessee — but this organization has covered the point spread in a decisive 53 of their last 83 gams after not scoring more than a touchdown in the first half in two straight games. The Bears managed only 149 total yards against Minnesota with just 124 of these yards in the air. Chicago has then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to gain at least 150 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. Nick Foles was knocked out of that game last week with a hip injury that will keep him out of this game. Mitchell Trubisky will be the starting quarterback in this game — and I think he should play better than he did earlier in the season. Trubisky has nothing to lose now so the pressure should be off. This will also be his first start with offensive coordinator Bill Lazor calling the plays since he took over those responsibilities two games ago for head coach Matt Nagy. Don’t be surprised if Trubisky is more active with his legs. The team will get running back David Montgomery back for this game as well which will be a big help — he leads the team with 472 rushing yards. Playing Green Bay may help since they are last in the NFL in Red Zone defense with opposing offenses scoring in 97% of their trips inside the Packers’ 20-yard line this season. The Bears’ defense should keep them in this game. They are 9th in the NFL by allowing 340.1 Yards-Per-Game — and they are holding their opponents to 20.9 PPG. Chicago has not allowed more than 96 rushing yards in seven straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in at least two straight games. Chicago has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against fellow NFC North opponents. Green Bay blew a 28-14 lead last week against the Colts — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after owning a two-touchdown or better halftime lead in their last game. Aaron Rodgers completed 27 of 38 passes for 311 yards in that game — but the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Green Bay has averaged 6.8, 6.7, and 6.5 Yards-Per-Play in each of their last three games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in three straight games. Now the Packers return home where they have struggled in their last two games with a narrow 24-20 win over lowly Jacksonville and getting upset by the Vikings by a 28-22 score. Perhaps the team misses the fans in Lambeau Field? There will be an audience of up to 500 tonight consisting of friends and family — but that will not accomplish much regarding the energy level in the stadium. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when laying 7.5 to 14 points. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in November.

FINAL TAKE: Rodgers is just 6-12-1 straight-up in his last nineteen starts again teams with a top-ten defense. And while he is leading an offense that is third in seventh in total yardage, Chicago has won eight of their last eleven games when facing a top-ten offense. A Bears’ victory pulls them within one game of first place of the Packers in the NFC North — expect a close game. 25* NFC North Game of the Month with the Chicago Bears (273) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (260) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (259). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (4-6) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week with their 31-28 upset loss to Dallas as a 7-point favorite. Carolina (4-7) comes off a 20-0 shutout victory over Detroit last Sunday as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota has been very reliable when picking themselves up off the mat after a loss under head coach Mike Zimmer as they have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 51 games after a straight-up loss. The Vikings have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games are a narrow loss by 6 points or less. Minnesota has been playing much better football as of late — and they still have an outside shot to make the playoffs. They have held their last three opponents to just 21.3 PPG along with 315.3 total Yards-Per-Game despite last week’s results. The Vikings have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. Kirk Cousins played well last week as he completed 22 of 30 passes for 314 yards with two touchdown passes and join interceptions. Running back Dalvin Cook has been sublime this season (when healthy) — he rushed for 115 yards with a touchdown on 27 carries last week. Minnesota gained 430 yards in the losing effort to the Cowboys — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Vikings are scoring 27.0 PPG over their last three games while averaging 434.0 total YPG. Wide receiver Adam Thielen is out for this game with after a positive COVID test but I expect this to be the Cook show on the ground against a defense that allows opposing rushers to average 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry. Minnesota stays at home where they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Carolina is likely due for a letdown after their dominant performance against the hapless Lions. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. And while they held Detroit (with an injured Matthew Stafford who had not practiced all week) to just 185 yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Carolina is averaging only 332.0 total YPG in their last three contests — and they will be without running back Christian McCaffrey who was declared out with a shoulder injury for this game. The Panthers snapped a five-game losing streak with their win over the Lions — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after losing at least four of their last five games.

FINAL TAKE: The Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in November under Zimmer’s leadership. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Minnesota Vikings (260) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (259). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington Football Team (123) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (124). THE SITUATION: Washington (3-7) snapped their two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 20-9 victory over Cincinnati as a 2-point favorite. Dallas (3-7) ended a four-game losing streak last week with their 31-28 upset victory at Minnesota as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FOOTBALL TEAM PLUS THE POINTS: One good game from the Cowboys has everyone jumping on their bandwagon — even though they were outgained by the Vikings last week by -54 net yards. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they had failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a narrow win by 6 points or less. The Cowboys have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. Even after scoring 31 points last week, the Cowboys are averaging only 19.7 PPG along with 335.0 total YPG in their last three games. Dallas also surrendered 430 yards to the Vikings last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Cowboys are last in the league by allowing 31.8 PPG — and they are surrendering 36.8 PPG at home along with 396.2 total YPG. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and the Cowboys have long been Fool’s Gold when favored at home as they have failed to pay off those winning tickets in 46 of their last 78 home games laying the points. Additionally, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games as a favorite. The Cowboys have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Washington has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. And while the Football team has only covered the point spread once in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Despite their losing record, Washington is outgaining their opponents by +8.2 net Yards-Per-Game. They have lost all three of their close games decided by one scoring possession. They are winless on the road despite outgaining those opponents by +19.0 net YPG. The Football Team has been the best pass defense in the league that is holding their opponents to just 195 passing YPG. Led by rookie defensive end Chase Young, Washington is tied for third in the NFL with 32 sacks. The offense should turn the ball over less with the veteran Alex Smith under center. While his mobility is not the same as it was before his leg injury last year, he is finding his rhythm as a passer again. Smith has thrown for 325 and 390 yards in his previous two games before completing 17 of 25 passes for 166 yards in the winning effort last week. The Football Team is averaging 397.0 total YPG in their last three games with Smith starting under center. And while the Cowboys are allowing 6.1 Yards-Per-Play this season, the Football team has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 25 games against teams that allow at least 6.0 YPP.

FINAL TAKE: Washington has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 trips to Dallas to play the Cowboys — and the underdog has covered the point spread in 28 of the last 41 meetings between these two teams in this rivalry. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the Washington Football Team (123) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (124). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (473) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (474). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (6-3) has won two of their last three games with their 23-16 win against Seattle as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Tampa Bay (7-3) has won four of their last five contests with their 46-23 victory in Carolina last Sunday as a 6-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles benefited from a +2 net turnover margin in that game against the Seahawks — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of the last 7 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. The Rams also generated 389 yards of offense in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Quarterback Jared Goff is only completing 62.8% of his passes on the road as compared to his 71.4% mark when playing at home — but he is averaging 7.7 Yards-Per-Attempt on the road versus his 7.5 YPA mark when at home His Quarterback Rating declines dips from a 97.2 mark at home to a 93.2 mark on the road — so perhaps the conventional wisdom that Goff has disparate home/road splits is a bit overplayed? He will not have his rock at left tackle in Andrew Whitworth who is out at least six weeks with a knee injury. But Los Angeles can lean on their elite defense that leads the league in points allowed (18.7 PPG), total yardage (296.4 YPG), Yards-Per-Play allowed (4.78), and opponent’s Passer Rating (81.0). This defense travels — they are holding their home hosts to just 276.2 total YPG. The Rams have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road with the total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. Additionally, Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they are just 1-3-2 ATS in their last 6 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. And while the Buccaneers outgained the Panthers by +357 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least 200 yards. I don’t love this situation for Tampa Bay. Head coach Bruce Arians identified that his team was “really tired” having played ten straight weeks with a bye. Arians gave the team three days off which may help — but it is certainly not an advantage. The Bucs have also been listless in prime-time games with a 1-2 record with their lone win being their listless effort to begin the month at home against the Giants where they only won by a 25-23 score. Tampa Bay beats up on the bad teams in the league — they are 7-0 against teams with a defense ranked outside the top-ten in yards allowed while averaging 35.8 PPG in those contests. But they are winless in their three games against teams with a top-ten total defense while averaging just 15 PPG. Quarterback Tom Brady has been sacked 14 times this season — with nine of them occurring in their two games against New Orleans and their game against Chicago which accounts for their three losses. Led by Aaron Donald, the Rams began the week tied for second in the NFL with 31 sacks. Brady passed for 341 yards against the Panthers — but the Bucs are just 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after gaining at least 250 passing yards in their last game. They return home to Tampa Bay where they are just 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games when favored by up to 7 points. Furthermore, the Buccaneers are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angels will also have revenge on their minds after getting blasted at home to the Buccaneers with Jameis Winston last year by a 55-40 score despite being a 9-point favorite in that September 29th game. That result may not matter much to Brady but it does to head coach Sean McVay and this Rams team. The Bucs are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games in November. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Rams (473) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (406) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (405). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (6-3) looks to bounce back from their 23-17 upset loss at New England as a 7-point favorite last week for Sunday Night Football. Tennessee (6-3) also looks to rebound from a 34-17 loss at Indianapolis on Thursday Night Football last week where they were a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: This is a revenge situation for Baltimore, who got clocked by the Titans in the AFC Divisional round last year at home by a 28-12 score despite being a 10-point favorite. Derrick Henry ran right over the Ravens’ defense with 195 rushing yards in that game. After having the interior of their run defense exposed like that, Baltimore signed defensive linemen Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams to shore up that part of their defense. Problem solved, right? Unfortunately, injuries will keep both of those players out for this game. So, fade the Ravens then, right? Well, not so fast. Sure, I wish those players were available — but it was not just Henry that did in Baltimore in that playoff game. QB Lamar Jackson committed three turnovers in that game, while the Ravens failed to convert on several 4th down opportunities that played a significant role in shifting the momentum of that game. If Lamar plays better — and the offense executes at a higher level — then Baltimore should take the Titans out of the position where they can pound the rock to Henry. The Ravens are outscoring their opponents by +8.8 PPG due to their strong defense that is holding their opponents to just 18.3 PPG along with 323.0 total YPG. Baltimore’s defense is even stingier at home where they limit their guests to only 17.8 PPG along with just 312.3 YPG. Additionally, the Ravens have held their last three opponents to 289.3 total YPG. They outgained the Patriots last week by +49 net yards but they lost the turnover battle and weather played a major role in that game. This remains a team that has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in November. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to an AFC South rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. And while the Titans surrendered 293 passing yards to the Colts, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. This Tennessee has regressed from that playoff game last year — they are allowing 398.1 total YPG this season. They are also dealing with a host of injuries themselves with potentially six starters out including defensive end Jadeveon Clowney and wide receiver Adam Humphries. Despite their 6-3 record, the Titans are being outgained by -24.8 net YPG this season. Over their last three games, they are being outscored by a touchdown while managing only 321.0 YPG which has translated into just 20.3 PPG. Now they go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. One final thing about this Titans team that should always be considered: they are simply a hot mess on special teams, especially with their punter and placekicker. A +10 net turnover margin is the reason why this team has overcome poor special teams play and losing the yardage battle to their opponents. But those turnover Gods are a fickle beast.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against AFC rivals — and the Ravens have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against AFC foes. I don’t love the injury situation for Baltimore — but it is not great with Tennessee either. The bottom line is that I will regret not investing in this situation at a 25* level. Let’s attack! 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Baltimore Ravens (406) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (405). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (322) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (321). THE SITUATION: Seattle (6-3) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 23-16 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 3-point underdog. Arizona (6-3) has won four of their last five games after their 32-30 win against Buffalo as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Seattle should respond with a strong effort tonight. They are a decisive 32-15-4 ATS in their last 51 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to an NFC West opponent. They are also 12-5-2 ATS in their last 19 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Seahawks have covered the point spread in 51 of their last 83 games after losing two games in a row. And while Seattle has not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Injuries have hit this team hard. I did not make a call on this game until Thursday, given the potential attrition to tonight’s roster. Cornerbacks Quinton Dunbar and Shaquille Griffin along with running back Chris Carson are not expected to play. Starting center Ethan Pocic is also out tonight as he continues in the concussion protocol — and that is significant. But head coach Pete Carroll does expect backup center Kyle Fuller to play after the high ankle sprain he suffered on Sunday. That development was essential for me to endorse the Seahawks tonight. Carroll also expects wide receiver Tyler Lockett and running back Carlos Hyde to play as well. Quarterback Russell Wilson needs to reduce his turnovers after being responsible for seven in the last two games. Seattle has lost the turnover battle in these last two games — but they have then covered the point spread in 36 of their last 55 games after having a -1 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games. The Seahawks defense is worst in the league by allowing 448.3 total YPG — but this unit has been playing better despite the losing streak. They have held their last three opponents to 386.7 YPG which is more than 60 YPG below their current season average. Safety Jamal Adams has been injured but he did return to register seven tackles with two sacks and a forced fumble against the Rams. The Seahawks have also recently acquired defensive linemen Carlos Dunlap and Snacks Harrison who should both improve the pass rush and run defense for this team. Seattle returns home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games with the total set at 49.5 or higher. The Seahawks are also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games in November. Arizona needed the miracle Hail Mary play from Kyler Murray to DeAndre Hopkins to steal that victory over the Bills last week. Yet the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after a win at home where they did not cover the point spread. Arizona is also dealing with a host of injuries — especially on their defensive line which makes me a bit less concerned about the Seattle offensive line. Defensive end Zach Allen went on the Injured Reserve with an ankle injury — he is the fourth defensive linemen to get placed on the IR for this team. Nose tackle Corey Peters is already out the season with a knee and Pro Bowl linebacker Chandler Jones is on the IR with his biceps injury. Now defensive end Jordan Phillips has been declared out with a foot injury for tonight. This Cardinals defense has declined as of late (they really miss Jones). They are allowing 32.7 PPG over their last three games along with 417.7 YPG with all three of those opponents scoring at least 30 points. Arizona has gained at least 438 yards in five straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 375 yards in their last game. And while they have rushed for at least 159 yards in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games played on a Thursday night — and Seattle is 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games played on a Thursday night. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (322) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (321). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (277) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (278). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (2-6) has lost two games in a row with their 31-26 loss at home to Las Vegas last Sunday as a 1-point underdog. Miami (5-3) has won four games in a row with their 34-31 upset win at Arizona as a 6-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles lost their fifth game of the season on the final play once again last week with a dropped pass in the end zone taking victory away from head coach Anthony Lynn’s team. Everyone is banging away at Lynn this week for his game management late in the game. Perhaps some of these criticisms are valid — but this dynamic is overplayed. While I disagree with those in the analytics community that thinks winning close games is solely a function of luck, I certainly agree that winning and losing close games often is dependent on one or two plays — and often those plays experience plenty of variance regarding the random events that take place within them (like dropping a touchdown pass). The ability to consistently play close games is the more predictable variable for this Chargers team than what happens in the final moments. Los Angeles’ has had a halftime lead six times this season. All six of their losses have been by seven points or less — and all those losses were by a combined 24 points. And going back to last year, the Chargers have seen 15 of their 17 losses decided by one scoring possession. What is more consistent is yardage numbers — and LA is outgaining their opponents by +61.5 net YPG. The Chargers are getting their ground game going to complement rookie QB, Justin Herbert, as they are averaging 146 rushing YPG over their last five games. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing two games in a row. They also have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games on the road after a game where both teams scored at least 24 points. The Chargers outgained the Raiders last week by +120 net yards as they held them to just 320 yards of offense. LA is 9-4-2 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Now they go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games away from home. Miami was outgained by -130 net yards in their upset win last week. And that accomplishment came on the heels of their upset win over the Rams the previous week where they won despite being outgained by a whopping -326 net yards! The Dolphins scored two defensive touchdowns against the Rams before returning a 36-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown last week against the Cardinals. Scoring defensive touchdowns to overcome getting outgained by more than 100 YPG is simply not sustainable. Miami is being outgained by -61.5 net YPG — and they are losing the yardage battle at home by -106.8 net YPG. The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 25 home games after a win by a field goal or less. And while Miami has won five of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 29 home games after winning five or six of their last seven contests. Now this team returns home where they are an ugly 22-46-1 ATS in their last 69 games as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers are 34-15-4 ATS in their last 53 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games as a dog getting up to 3 points. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (277) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (121) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (122). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (5-3) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 24-10 upset loss at home to Baltimore as a 1-point favorite. Tennessee (6-2) ended a two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 24-17 win against Chicago as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Indianapolis outgained the Ravens last week by +79 net yards after holding them to just 260 total yards. Baltimore scored on a defensive touchdown from a 65-yard fumble recovery that helped to make the winning difference. Indianapolis is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread loss — and they are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a double-digit loss at home. The Colts are also 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Indy is scoring a healthy 26.0 PPG this season — and that mark has risen to a 27.3 PPG clip in their last three games with them averaging 378.3 total YPG during that span. Quarterback Philip Rivers is completing 67.9% of his passes with 2087 passing yards and a 7.6 Yards-Per-Attempt average. And while tight end Jack Doyle is out for this game as he recovers from a concussion, Rivers will get wide receiver, T.Y. Hilton, back from the groin injury that has kept him out the last few weeks. The Colts’ offensive line leads the league by allowing only eight sacks this season — and the pass rush is a weakness for the Titans. Rivers should have plenty of time to pick apart the Tennessee secondary. Indianapolis also leads the NFL by allowing only 290.0 total YPG. They go back on the road where they are outgaining their opponents by +46.7 net YPG. The Colts are also 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games in November. Tennessee defeated the Bears last week despite getting outgained by -147 net yards. The Titans managed only 228 total yards against Chicago — and they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. Despite winning six of their eight games, Tennessee is getting outgained by -10.2 net YPG. The Titans have eked out five of the six games they have played that have been decided by one scoring possession. Tennessee surrendered 319 passing yards to Nick Foles last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. And while the Titans rank 7th in the league by scoring 29.0 PPG this year, they are scoring only 22.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 320.3 total YPG which is -63.6 net YPG below their season mark. Additionally, Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against fellow AFC opponents. Furthermore, the Titans will be missing a couple of important players with both wide receiver Adam Humphries and cornerback Adoree’ Jackson out with injuries.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their meetings last season with the road team winning both times. The Colts have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 meetings with the Titans including covering the point spread in six of their last eight trips to Nashville to play Tennessee in their building. Indianapolis is 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 Thursday Night Football games — and the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on Thursday nights. 25* AFC South Game of the Month with the Indianapolis Colts (121) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (122). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (474) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (473). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (6-2) enters this game coming off a 25-23 win at New York against the Giants as a 13-point favorite for Monday Night Football. New Orleans (5-2) comes off a 26-23 win at Chicago in overtime last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay was flat on Monday as a double-digit favorite as they were perhaps looking ahead to this NFC South showdown. The Buccaneers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games when playing on a short week on Sunday after featuring on Monday Night Football. Tampa Bay allowed 367 yards to the Giants in the win — but they are 20-9-3 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bucs have one of the best defenses in the league as they are allowing only 20.6 PPG along with just 299.5 total YPG. Tampa Bay also boasts the best-run defense in the league as they hold their opponents to just 70.4 rushing YPG. They have held three opponents to under 50 rushing yards this season. This stout defense is a great combination with the Tom Brady-led offense. What is underrated about Brady is that his offenses limit turnovers. He threw two interceptions in the opening game loss in the Big Easy against the Saints — but he has thrown only two interceptions in his last six games. Furthermore, New Orleans has committed just five turnovers in their last seven games — and they have won the turnover battle in six of their last seven games. Brady is getting comfortable in the Bruce Arians offense. He is averaging 2 touchdown passes per game over his last three starts — and he is completing over 70% of his passes in his last two starts. Since Week Three, Brady has 17 touchdown passes to just one interception. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after a win on the road by 3 points or less. Their victory over the Bears came off a 27-24 win against Carolina — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after winning their last two games by a field goal or less. And while some bettors may consider the Saints “due” because they have not covered the point spread in their last three games, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning their last two games where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Saints defense is an issue as they are allowing 28.1 PPG this season. They are just 16th in the league by allowing 237.9 passing YPG — and they ave allowed two touchdowns of more than 60 yards. Their win over the Bears flew Over the 41 point Total — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams met in Brady’s first game in a Tampa Bay uniform with the Saints winning by a 34-23 score. Brady completed only 23 of 36 passes for what is now his third-lowest completion percentage with the Buccaneers. But New Orleans managed only 82 rushing yards in that game which is their lowest output of the season. Wide receiver Michael Thomas is questionable to return to the field today after missing much of the season. The Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 home games when playing with revenge against a team that scored at least 28 points against them. 25* NFC South Game of the Year with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (474) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (468) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Las Vegas Raiders (467). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (2-5) looks to bounce back from a 31-30 loss at Denver last Sunday as a 3-point favorite. Las Vegas (4-3) has won two of their last three games after their 16-6 upset win at Cleveland as a 1-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): That was the fifth game this season that Los Angeles has lost a game decided by seven points or less. All five of the Chargers’ losses have been decided by a combined 19 points. Despite winning only two of their seven games, head coach Anthony Lynn’s team is outgaining their opponents by +51.1 net YPG. They should respond with a strong effort this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after suffering an upset loss in their last game. Additionally, the Chargers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Chargers’ offense is beginning to click under rookie quarterback Justin Herbert. They are scoring 32.0 PPG while averaging 439.7 total YPG with Herbert getting his top two weapons in the passing game, wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, healthy and on the field together at the same time. Los Angeles has scored at least 27 points in four straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 25 points in four straight contests. The Chargers are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning two of their last three contests. The Raiders held the Browns to just 223 yards last week in the weather that limited the passing attacks for both teams. But Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not giving up more than 14 points in their last contest. Despair their winning record, the Raiders are only outgaining their opponents by +1.7 net YPG — and they are getting outscored by -2.3 PPG. They stay on the road for a second straight week where they are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against teams with a losing record at home. They are also just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games when favored. And in their last 8 games played on field turf, Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread 6 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have had this game circled on their calendars all year after getting swept by the Raiders last year. Los Angeles lost the first meeting in Oakland by a 26-24 score before getting upset in the rematch in LA by a 24-17 score as a 7-point favorite on December 22nd. This is expected to be a high-scoring game with the Total set in the low 50s — but the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 42 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher and the Chargers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. 25* AFC West Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (468) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Las Vegas Raiders (467). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (270) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (269). THE SITUATION: Seattle (5-1) looks to rebound from their 37-34 upset loss in overtime at Arizona as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday night. San Francisco (4-3) pulled off their second-straight upset victory last week with their 33-6 victory at New England as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Seattle should respond with a strong effort as they are 32-15-4 ATS in their last 51 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 6 points or less. The Seahawks are also 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 games after a point spread loss. Seattle dominated time of possession having the football for over nine minutes longer than the Cardinals — and they outgained them by +53 net yards. If not for a late personal foul that kept an Arizona drive alive, the Seahawks likely win that game. Seattle went into the locker room at halftime with a 27-17 lead — that was the first game in the Pete Carroll/Russell Wilson era where they lost a game after enjoying a halftime lead of at least four points. Wilson completed 33 of 50 passes for 388 yards while adding another 84 yards on the ground. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after passing for at least 300 yards in their last game. Wilson leads an offense that is tops in the NFL in both scoring 33.8 PPG and in averaging 425.2 total YPG. The Seattle defense is a weakness — and the recently acquired Carlos Dunlap will not be able to play this week given COVID restrictions for newly acquired players. But Carroll expects to get Jamal Adams back on the field after he has been out with a groin injury. The Seahawks surrendered 360 yards last week — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 straight games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. They are also 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. Seattle returns home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. And in their last 6 games in November, the Seahawks are 5-0-1 ATS. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games after not allowing more than 6 points in their last game. The 49ers are slowly getting a bit healthier — but this remains a shell of the Super Bowl team last season with Nick Bosa, Richard Sherman, Dee Ford, and Raheem Mostert all on Injured Reserve as they headline a still very long injured list. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. They are also 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November. Furthermore, the Niners have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against NFC West foes.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco is just 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games against the Seahawks — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games in Seattle. They did upset the Seahawks on the road in the last meeting between these two teams by a 26-21 score last December 29th — but that will likely be even more motivation for Seattle to get back to their winning ways this week. 25* NFC West Game of the Year with the Seattle Seahawks (270) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (101) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (102). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (1-6) looks to bounce back from their 23-22 upset loss at home to Detroit as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Carolina (3-4) has lost their last two games after their 27-24 loss at New Orleans as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: Atlanta blew their third game where they had a late lead when running back Todd Gurley could not stop himself from stumbling into the end zone after getting first down inside the Lions’ 10-yard line late in that game. The touchdown gave Matthew Stafford one last opportunity to score a touchdown — which he did on the last play of the game — to steal the victory. The Falcons have suffered four upset losses this season — and they have four net close losses in games decide by one scoring possession. Yet Atlanta still has the better roster than the Panthers. And their defense has played better as of late as they have held each of their last three opponents to just 23 points. The Falcons allowed Detroit to gain 386 yards — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Atlanta goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road as an underdog. And in their last 6 games against teams with a losing record, the Falcons have covered the point spread 5 times. Carolina was outgained by the Saints last week by -132 net yards. The Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss by 6 points or less. All three of Carolina’s victories have been as an underdog. They return home where they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Furthermore, the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 11 games as a favorite, Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of these contests. There had been speculation that the Panthers would activate Christian McCaffrey for this game — but he remained on the Injured Reserve list this afternoon with his ankle sprain. Carolina is missing some players on their offensive line with tackle Russell Okung downgraded to doubtful with his calf injury and Michael Schofield III on the COVID list. The Panthers are also missing defensive tackle Kawan Short, defensive end Yetur Gross-Matos, and strong safety Juston Burris who are all on IR.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta will be looking to avenge a 23-16 upset loss at home to Carolina on October 11th which was the final game for both head coach Dan Quinn and general manager Thomas Dimitroff before both were fired the next day. Wide receiver Julio Jones did not play in that game either with his hamstring injury — but he is in better health now after hauling in eight catches for 97 yards last week against the Lions. The Falcons are wavering 28.4 PPG when Jones is in the lineup. 25* NFC South Game of the Month with the Atlanta Falcons (101) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (470) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (469). THE SITUATION: New England (2-3) has lost two games in a row after their 18-12 upset loss to Denver last Sunday as a 7-point favorite. San Francisco (3-3) enters this game triumphant after their 24-16 upset win over the Los Angeles Rams last Sunday as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: This is the first time that Bill Belichick’s team has been below .500 in October in 225 games. Their 26-10 loss at Kansas City two weeks ago was not a surprise since they were without Cam Newton in that game. Do not underestimate the negative impact the lack of practices has had on this team over the last two weeks. I believe Belichick and his coaching staff were able to address a host of issues this week in what was their first uninterrupted normal week of preparation since their 36-20 victory over the Raiders three weeks ago. Belichick’s teams in New England are a decisive 49-24-1 ATS in their last 74 games after a straight-up loss. I expect this Patriots’ offense to improve significantly this week after struggling against the Broncos. New England has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after not scoring more than 14 points in two straight contests. The Patriots defense is playing quite well — they held the Chiefs to just 19 points from their offense while limiting them to only 323 yards two weeks ago before holding the Broncos to 299 yards last week. Belichick teams usually are reliable in October as they are 42-17-2 ATS in their last 61 games in this month — and the Patriots have covered the point spread in seven of their last ten games in October. New England has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games as a home favorite of 7 points or less. San Francisco may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after an upset win as a home underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset win at home against an NFC West rival. The 49ers are starting to get healthy again — but they are still a shell of the team that made it to the Super Bowl. The defense remains a M*A*S*H unit with Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, and Richard Sherman out indefinitely. The Niners will also be without the glue of their defense for the second straight week in linebacker Kwon Alexander who is dealing with a high ankle sprain. On offense, the team put running back Raheem Mostert on IR this week to join Tevin Coleman on that list. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games in October. They are also just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Belichick should have a special game plan for 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo who he drafted and groomed in New England for years before trading him to San Francisco. 25* NFL CBS-TV Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (470) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (469). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (276) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (275). THE SITUATION: Dallas (2-3) enters this game coming off a 37-34 win at home over the New York Giants last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite. Arizona (3-2) looks to build off their 30-10 win at New York against the Jets as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: The big news for Dallas is the season-ending injury to Dak Prescott. I think the offense will continue to be productive with Andy Dalton under center. The Red Rider is a veteran with playoff experience who needed to get out of Cincinnati. He has tons of offensive weapons with the Cowboys with Ezekiel Elliott at running back along with one of the most talented and deepest wide receiving corps in the league. I also think the strength of offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is his initial scheming (not so much with his ability to adapt) — so I think Dallas will have a short-term advantage with Moore’s wrinkles with the offense as he shapes it to Dalton’s strength. Look for the Cowboys to come out with plenty of energy as they look to salvage their season — and they are still in first place in the hapless NFC East. Dallas has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home where they scored at least 31 points. And while the Cowboys have not covered the point spread in any of their games this season, Dallas has then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least four straight games. The Cowboys lead the NFL by averaging 488.0 total YPG — and that usually is a good sign for them moving forward. After scoring 75 combined points in their last two games, Dallas has scored at least 31 points in four straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 35 points in their last two contests. The Cowboys have gained at least 408 yards in four straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after gaining at last 400 yards in three straight games. And while Dallas has averaged at least 6.48 Yards-Per-Play in their last four contests, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in four straight contests. Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Cardinals dominated the woeful Jets by outgaining them by +211 net yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +200 net yards. Quarterback Kyler Murray completed 27 of 37 passes for 380 yards in the victory — but Arizona is just 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games after passing for at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Cardinals are just 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. This Arizona team is also without their All-Pro linebacker Chandler Jones who suffered a season-ending biceps injury. Not only will the Cardinals miss his 19 sacks from last season but they are also without linebacker Devon Kennard.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when playing on Monday Night Football while Dallas has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on MNF. Look for the Cowboys to pull out the victory behind Dalton. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (276) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (274) minus the points versus Los Angeles Rams (273). THE SITUATION:  San Francisco (2-3) was upset for the second straight week last Sunday with their 43-17 shellacking at the hands of Miami as an 8.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (4-1) has won two straight games with their 30-10 win at Washington as a 7-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a critical game for San Francisco after they have been upset in two straight games as a favorite laying more than a touchdown in two straight weeks in what was supposed to be a fruitful three-game homestand. The Niners were upset at home two weeks ago on Sunday Night Football against the Eagles (when we successfully had Philly) before their upset loss at home to the Dolphins last week. San Francisco goes on the road next week for a brutal two-game swing at New England and then Seattle. With the NFC West also including an up-and-coming Arizona team, head coach Kyle Shanahan simply needs to get a victory from his team tonight. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset loss by at least 21 points. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. QB Jimmy Garoppolo was probably rushed back to action last week with his bum ankle as he could not plant his leg which led to him completing only 7 of 17 passes while throwing two interceptions last week before Shanahan got him out of there at halftime. Garoppolo should be better this week — and the pressure will be on for him to perform. The 49ers are also simply ravaged with injuries especially on defense where Richard Sherman, Joey Bosa, and Dee Ford are on IR while linebacker Kwon Alexander is out with an ankle. Yet despite all this attrition, San Francisco is fifth in the NFL by allowing only 323.0 YPG — and they are third in the league by allowing only 215.6 passing YPG and only six touchdown passes. The 49ers should step up in this game as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Los Angeles may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning two games in a row. And while they have not allowed more than 10 points in two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. The Rams held the Football Team to just 108 yards of offense last week while limiting them to only a 2.45 Yards-Per-Play average. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after not allowing more than 200 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after holding their last opponent to no more than 3.5 YPP. And while the combination of Alex Smith and Kyle Allen only managed 70 total passing yards last week, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 100 passing yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: All four of Los Angeles’ victories have been against the weak NFC East teams — so their great stats may be propped up by a favorable early schedule. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. 25* NFC West Game of the Month with the San Francisco 49ers (274) minus the points versus Los Angeles Rams (273). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (462) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (461). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (3-0) finally takes the field again after last playing on September 27th where they defeated the Vikings in Minnesota by a 31-30 score as a 3-point favorite. Buffalo (4-0) remained unbeaten last week with their 30-23 win at Las Vegas as a 3-point favorite on October 4th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: Endorsing Tennessee for this game first required an up-to-date assessment regarding who will be playing tonight. The news early this afternoon is that both left tackle Taylor Lewan and wide receiver A.J. Brown are expected to play after being listed as questionable on the last official injured list submitted to the league on Saturday. I thought this would be the case with the extra days to rest and rehabilitate — but confirmation was essential for me to push the proverbial button on this play. The Titans have a long lost of players out due to COVID with wide receivers Adam Humphries and Corey Davis being two of those players. I do have sources at the private high school in Nashville where Tennessee conducted informal workouts last week violating NFL guidelines. These workouts were on multiple days (good!) that involved quarterback Ryan Tannehill (good!) working with coaches (good!) in passing drills which are presumably the players that will be taking Humphries and Davis spots tonight (good!). I am not thrilled that the Titans will have had only two practices back at their open facilities since Saturday — but that is similar to the regimen for teams playing on a Thursday after a short week. At least Tennessee has stayed at home this entire time. And getting seventeen days of rest does not hurt. I think this will be a big night for running back Derrick Henry (who was not at the informal workouts — he was resting, which is good!) who may be poised to have his best game of the season running behind Lewan. I also like the extended time that head coach Mike Vrabel and his staff have had to devise a scheme-specific against the Bills’ QB Josh Allen. The only other significant loss for the Titans from COVID is defensive end, Jeffery Simmons. Tennessee has not covered the point spread yet this season — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after both a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread in and after failing to cover the point spread in at least two straight games. Tannehill led an offense that generated 444 yards against the Vikings in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 400 yards. And in their last 12 games when getting 3.5 to 9.5 points, Tennessee has covered the point spread 8 times. Buffalo has won and covered the point spread in all four of their games this season — but I don’t like it when teams that are red hot get out of their routine. As it is, the Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after winning at least four games in a row. Additionally, Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 38 of their last 60 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Bills have won all three of their games decided by one possession including two wins by just a field goal. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in their win over the Raiders — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after generating a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games against fellow AFC opponents while Buffalo is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against AFC foes. While skepticism over the Titans after their long break is deserved, the market has over-adjusted (fueled by the Allen-hype) in making them road favorites of at least a field goal where they would typically be small road dogs according to most power rankings. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Tennessee Titans (462) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (461). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (477) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (478). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (1-3) has lost three straight games after their 38-31 loss at Tampa Bay as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. New Orleans (2-2) snapped a two-game losing streak last Sunday with their 35-29 victory in Detroit against the Lions as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. New Orleans is a banged-up football team. On defense, cornerbacks Janoris Jenkins and Marston Lattimore along with defensive end Marcus Davenport are all questionable with injuries. On offense, the offensive line is dealing with injuries to Andrus Peat and Ryan Ramczyk that leave them questionable for tonight. And while wide receiver Michael Thomas was questionable with the ankle that kept him out the previous two games, he was suspended for tonight’s game by the field after a physical altercation with a teammate. All these issues will make it harder for a team to cover a point spread of about a touchdown — the Saints just want the victory. They are scoring 30.8 PPG — but they are also allowing 30.8 PPG so far this season. They return home to the Big Easy where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 home games when laying the points. Los Angeles has lost all three of their games by 7 points or less. The Chargers had a 24-7 lead in the second quarter against the Buccaneers before blowing that lead to Tom Brady and company. They also blew a lead against Kansas City before losing that game in overtime — and a fumbled lateral in the waning moments of their game with Carolina probably cost them that victory. This is a quality roster with a good head coach in Anthony Lynn. I am worried about their injuries — particularly on the offensive line. But the Chargers put up 31 points against a very good Tampa Bay defense despite the injuries to Trai Turner and Bryan Bulaga who are starters on their offensive line. They seem to have made the right decision in drafting Justin Herbert at quarterback. The rookie has completed 72% of his passes for 831 yards and an 8.7 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt average. Running back Austin Ekeler is out but they have a solid stable of running backs with rookie Joshua Kelley out of UCLA and former Northwestern Wildcat Josh Jackson. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 31 road games after losing at least three games in a row. The Chargers are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 road games with the total set at 49.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles is 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog — and they are 33-15-4 ATS in their last 52 road games when getting the points. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on Monday Night Football — and remember that they will not have a packed and rowdy home crowd for this game given COVID restrictions. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (477) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (475) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (476). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (1-3) won their first game of the season last Sunday with their 31-23 upset win at Houston as a 3.5-point underdog. Seattle (4-0) remains unbeaten this season after they defeated Miami on the road last week by a 31-23 score as a 4.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: Earning their first win of the season was a good start — but Minnesota remains in an urgent situation with Green Bay and Chicago only having one loss between the both of them in the NFC North. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after losing two of their last three games. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has received his usual level of criticism during the losing streak — but he has led an offense that has scored 61 combined points over the last two games and that has reached the 30-point threshold in three of their four games this season. Justin Jefferson has emerged as a solid replacement for Stefon Diggs and a good complement to Adam Thielen — he has 11 receptions for 278 yards. Minnesota generated 410 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. Delvin Cook has been outstanding this season with two straight 100-yard rushing efforts. He ran the ball 27 times for 130 yards and two touchdowns last week. Cook’s success running the football allowed the Vikings to control the time of possession for 36:31 minutes — and this will be the formula for success tonight to keep Russell Wilson off the field. Minnesota rushed for 162 yards overall against the Texans — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. The Vikings are also 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games in October. Seattle looks to become 5-0 on the season for the first time in franchise history. They have passed for at least 275 yards in all four of their games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after passing for at least 275 yards in three straight games. But the bigger concern is their defense that is allowing 476.8 total YPG. The Seahawks are being outgained by -60.5 net YPG this season — it is their +5 net turnover margin that has helped them overcome that disparity. But the turnovers are fickle — and Seattle will not have the services of their star defensive back Jamal Adams for this game as he deals with a groin injury. As it is, the Seahawks have allowed at least 312 passing yards in all four of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 275 passing yards in three straight games. Seattle returns home where they will not have any fans in the stadium — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games. The Seahawks are also just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against fellow AFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Cousins has the reputation of folding under the bright lights of nationally-televised prime-time games — but the numbers do not support that claim for Sunday Night Football. Cousin has led his team to a victory in four of his six starts on a Sunday night. Furthermore, his 320.5 passing YPG average, 73.3% completion percentage, and his 117.3 Passer Rating represent the best marks of all NFL quarterbacks playing on Sunday Night Football. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Minnesota Vikings (475) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (460) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (459). THE SITUATION: Houston (0-4) remained winless last week after their 31-23 upset loss at Minnesota last Sunday despite being a 3.5-point favorite. Jacksonville (1-3) has lost three straight games after their 33-25 loss at Cincinnati last week as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINTS: Houston sacked head coach and general manager Bill O’Brien after Sunday’s loss. The speculation is that J.J. Watt’s frustration with O’Brien finally boiled over which resulted in a verbal altercation between the two. When the star players begin to turn on you, then ownership needed to make a move to change the atmosphere. Because Watt demonstrated leadership to take on O’Brien in a move he had to think would cause waves, I expect a big from him and the rest of the team as they rally around each other and interim head coach Romeo Crennel who is universally-liked on the team. At 73-years old, Crennel not only replaces Pete Carroll as the league’s elder statesman at head coach but he will be the oldest head coach in NFL history. As it is, the Texans have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games when staying at home after a loss at home. Houston has also covered the point spread in their last 3 games after an upset loss at home. The biggest problem for this team is their run defense as they rank last in the league by allowing 181.1 rushing YPG. They have allowed all four of their opponents to rush for at least 162 yards this season — but not only have they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yard in two straight games but they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in three straight games. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Jaguars’ defense has issues of their own after allowing the Bengals to rack up 505 yards last week with 205 of those yards coming on the ground. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 30 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards. The Jags will be without cornerback D.J. Hayden who was placed on injured reserve this week with a hamstring injury. Look for Deshaun Watson to have a big game against the inexperienced Jacksonville secondary. The Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road as an underdog. And in their last 9 games in October, Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of these contests.

FINAL TAKE: Teams that fired their head coach midseason have only covered the point spread twice in these last eight situations — but that limited sample size deserves some context. Often these moves are made later in the season when the team is out of playoff contention and planning their offseason. And often the fired head coach was generally liked and respected — Carolina laid an egg in their first game after Ron Rivera was fired late in the year as they appeared dejected with the move by ownership. I suspect the Houston players have had the Wizard of Oz on loop all week because they think that the “wicked witch is dead.” The Texans won both meetings between these two teams last season so they have to think this is a winnable game if they get back to basics. 25* AFC South Game of the Month with the Houston Texans (460) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (459). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (279) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (280). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (0-3) will be playing with desperation tonight after losing their third straight game last Sunday by a 30-26 score despite being a 2.5-point favorite. Green Bay (3-0) is unbeaten so far this season after they upset New Orleans last Sunday night by a 37-30 score on the road as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: Atlanta had a 26-10 lead with 6 1/2 minutes to go in that game before surrendering the final 20 points in that game to lose to the Bears. That collapse came on the heels of them blowing a 39-24 lead with 5 minutes left in the game two weeks ago against the Cowboys in their 40-39 loss. The Falcons may not be able to keep a lead — but they remain competitive. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog. Atlanta is moving the ball on offense — they are scoring 30.0 PPG while averaging 419.0 total YPG. They generated 371 yards last week against the Bears — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They should be able to score against this Packers defense that is last in the NFL by allowing 6.6 Yards-Per-Play. Opposing quarterbacks have racked up a Passer Rating of 113.4 which is the 3rd highest in the league. Green Bay is also allowing opposing rushers to average 5.5 Yards-Per-Carry. The Falcons’ biggest problem is their defense that is ravaged with injuries in their secondary. They allowed the Bears to gain 437 yards last week after the Cowboys gained 570 yards against them. Atlanta has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. Moving forward, the Falcons have covered the point spread in 5 straight games on the road. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning three games in a row. The Packers have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a point spread win. Additionally, the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games off a game on the road where both teams scored at least 24 points. They will not have the services of their best wide receiver, Davante Adams, who will not play with a hamstring injury despite him participating in practice at the end of the week. Green Bay is dealing with a number of injuries with wide receiver Allan Lazard and linebacker Christian Kirksey out tonight.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Look for them to keep this game close and perhaps pull the upset. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Special Feature with the Atlanta Falcons (279) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (490) minus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (489). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (2-0) enters this showdown coming off a 33-16 win at Houston last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite. Kansas City (2-0) rallied from a 17-6 deficit in the 3rd quarter to defeat the Chargers in Los Angeles in overtime by a 23-20 score as an 8.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Baltimore comes into this game as the top team in the league in point differential with their 38-6 opening week against Cleveland. The Ravens have now won fourteen straight games in the regular season — and the 22 points they have allowed are the fewest in the league going into Week Three. Baltimore should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Ravens have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Baltimore has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in two straight contests. They return home to M&T Bank Stadium where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Kansas City is showing signs of a Super Bowl hangover — the successful Patrick Mahomes’ rally against the Chargers last week was the fourth time in their last five games where he had to lead his team back from a double-digit deficit. I think the hole they dug themselves in last week is a canary in the coal mine regarding the champs thinking they can turn on and off their switch. This Ravens team is the wrong group to do that against. The Chiefs were outgained by the Charger by 65 yards — and rookie quarterback Justin Herbert led an offense that racked up 479 yards against their defense in his first game as a professional. Not great, Bob. Run defense was one of the liabilities for Kansas City last season in their Super Bowl run — and they are allowing 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry this season which is resulting in 150.4 rushing YPG. They are allowing their opponents a 62% Success Rate in their ground game as well which is 30th in the league. Baltimore is averaging 168 rushing YPG so far this season while averaging 34 rushing attempts per game. The Chiefs are also just 22nd in the NFL in Explosive Play Rate allowed while ranking last in Explosive Pass Play Rate allowed. The tackling for the Kansas City defenders has been shoddy — a product of the lack of a normal preseason along with perhaps some champions’ complacency. These are all bad signs for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss where they failed to cover the point spread — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win by 6 points or less. And in their last 8 games on field turf, the Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has had this game circled all offseason after losing to the Chiefs last year by a 33-28 score on September 22nd — and that was after they lost to them in December of 2018 against Mahomes by a 27-24 score in overtime. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Baltimore Ravens (490) minus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (489). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (488) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (487). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (1-1) looks to rebound from their 34-24 upset loss in Las Vegas against the Raiders on Monday as a 4-point favorite. Green Bay (2-0) has started the season unbeaten after defeating the Lions at home in Lambeau Field last week by a 42-21 score as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Sean Payton was livid with his team after they committed ten penalties accounting for 129 yards with five of those penalties accounting for first downs for the Raiders. The Saints are the most-penalized team in the league with 248 penalty yards after two games. Payton kept his team in Vegas overnight to discuss the mistakes his team has been making. Expect this team to come out on fire. As it is, they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. New Orleans has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 38 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Drew Brees is getting plenty of criticism this week for not throwing the ball downfield. Is he losing arm strength? Yeah, probably — but that is probably an overrated quality (at least, Brett Favre and Phill Simms say so). Certainly Brees misses wide receiver Michael Thomas who will be out for this game with his ankle injury. But even without Thomas last week, Brees led an offense that averaged 7.44 Yards-Per-Play — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after averaging at least 6.5 Yards-Per-Play in their last contest. The problem for New Orleans besides the penalties — or, another result of the penalties that kept FIVE drives alive — was that they only had the ball for 23:42 minutes in that game. The Saints gained 424 yards on Monday — and they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. They also have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. The short week should not be a problem as they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games when playing with six days or less of rest. And in their last 41 games against teams with a winning record, New Orleans is 27-13-1 ATS. Before we crown the Packers the Super Bowl Championship for scoring 85 points in their first two games, lets remember that they did this against an injured Detroit defense and a Minnesota defense that lost five starters from last year’s team. Remember, Green Bay was outgained last season by their opponents but made it to the NFC Championship Game because they were 9-1 in one-possession games. They were closer to an 8-8/9-7 team, in practice, that a 13-3 team. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Additionally, they are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Green Bay has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers may be without Rodgers’ favorite target in Davante Adams after he injured his hamstring which kept him out of the second half last week against the Lions. Adams is going to try to play it looks like (and he is my fantasy line up tonight for Guinea Pig Nation) — but I am not optimistic. But Green Bay has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings with the Saints. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the New Orleans Saints (488) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (487). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (462) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (461). THE SITUATION: New England (1-1) looks to bounce back from their heartbreaking 35-30 loss at Seattle last Sunday night as a 4.5-point underdog where they failed to convert on the goal-line on the final play of the game that would have given them the victory. Las Vegas (2-0) comes off a triumphant 34-24 upset victory at home on Monday Night Football against New Orleans as a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: The Raiders earned an emotional win in their debut in their new Allegiant Stadium (down the road from the Hollywood Sports office) — but they now find themselves in a letdown situation after their perfect 2-0 start to the season. On a short week, Las Vegas has to make their second trip out east in three weeks to play at a 1 PM ET start — during a pandemic! — with the old 10 AM PT body clock problem. As it is, the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 28 games after an upset victory as a home underdog. Las Vegas has also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win at home. The Raiders did generate 377 yards of offense against the Saints defense — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. But the bigger concern is that they were outgained by -47 net yards with New Orleans generating 424 yards despite only having the football for less than 24 minutes in that game. The Saints also gifted the Raiders 129 yards from their ten penalties with five of them directly producing first downs. New Orleans averaged a whopping 7.44 Yards-Per-Play on Monday. They are allowing 6.54 YPP after two games. They are also just 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. New England should respond with a strong effort as they are 48-23-1 ATS in their last 72 games after a straight-up loss in the Bill Belichick era. The Patriots’ offense looks fantastic under the direction of (a completely healthy again) Cam Newton. After rushing the ball 15 times for 75 yards with two touchdowns in the opening week, he torched the Seahawks for 397 passing yards by completing 30 of 44 passes — and he added another 44 yards on the ground with two more rushing scores. These are all great signs for Belichick whose teams have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 42 games after scoring at least 30 points. New England outgained Seattle by a 464-429 margin despite losing on the scoreboard. The Patriots are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. New England needs to tighten things up on defense — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 30 points and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after allowing at least 35 points in their last game. Belichick is the best in the business in having his defense take away the opposing offenses’ best weapon — so that means plenty of attention Raiders’ tight end Darren Waller who caught 12 passes for 103 yards on Monday. Las Vegas receiving corps drops off after Waller and first-round draft pick Henry Ruggs III is still dealing with an injury. The Patriots return home where they are a decisive 43-21-3 ATS in their last 67 games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games with the total set at 45.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have been a great early story to the season — but they remain a team that averaged only 15 PPG over their final seven games while never topping 24 points so I am not completely sold that this is now a 30 PPG scoring attack despite scoring 68 points so far this season. This is also a team that got blown out by a 42-21 score to Tennessee, a 40-9 score at Kansas City, and a 34-3 score in New York to the Jets (!) in the final six weeks of the season. 25* NFL Blowout Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (462) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (461). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (301) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (302). THE SITUATION: Miami (0-2) is winless in their first two games of the season after their 31-28 loss at home to Buffalo last Sunday as a 5.5-point underdog. Jacksonville (1-1) comes off a 33-30 loss at Tennessee as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: There sure is a lot of love all of the sudden for this Jaguars’ team that was considered to be “tankin’ for Trevor” to get the opportunity to draft Trevor Lawrence as their franchise quarterback. But second-year QB Gardner Minshew is completing 75.4% of his passes with six touchdown passes and undrafted rookie running back James Robinson has emerged with 164 rushing yards to make their supporters understand why they released Leonard Fournette in training camp. Yet Jacksonville has still failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss to an AFC South rival. And while Minshew threw for 339 yards against the Titans defense, the Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after passing for at least 300 yards in their last game. Keep in mind that it was Minshew’s two interceptions on Sunday that helped the Titans overcome being outgained by a 480 to 354 yardage margin to the Jaguars. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 43 of their last 69 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least 100 yards. Minshew may be without one of his top targets in wide receiver D.J. Chark who is listed as questionable with a chest injury. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home game when favored. And not only have the Jaguars failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points but they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 home games after surrendering at least 30 points. Miami has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and the have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread setback. The Dolphins have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spread as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing two straight contests to AFC East rivals. In head coach Brian Flores I trust to get this team focused on a short week. Remember, this team was supposedly “tankin’ for Tua” last year before they rallied from an 0-7 start to the season by then winning five of their last nine games. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is inconsistent but it was the good version of him on Sunday as he completed 31 of 47 passes against an outstanding Bills defense for 328 passing yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. Getting wide receiver DeVante Parker healthy and back on the field is a big help for Fitzmagic — Parker has 78 catches for 1227 receiving yards with 10 touchdown passes in his last sixteen games. The Dolphins generated 410 yards of offense last week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Miami has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: There is inherent value with the underdog in this one — and the Dolphins have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games as the dog. Miami has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month is on the Miami Dolphins (301) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (287) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (288). THE SITUATION: New England (1-0) won their opening game of the season last week with their 21-11 win over Miami as a 7-point favorite. Seattle (1-0) also won their debut to the 2020 season with their 38-25 victory over Atlanta where they closed as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: New England should build off their momentum from last week as they are 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 games after a point spread win. The new-look Cam Newton run offense was clicking on all cylinders last week as they generated 357 total yards of offense on the strength of 202 rushing yards on 42 rushing attempts. The analytics folks tend to dismiss time of possession — perhaps that is one of the reasons they tend to replicate coin flips when making ATS prognostications? I assign plenty of value to the Patriots’ controlling the clock for 34:49 minutes last week. Not only does that keep the opposing offense off the field, but it keeps your own defense relatively fresh with one or two fewer defensive possessions they have to play in the game. That makes a big deal when coaching-up younger players. It is telling that New England is 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they are also an impressive 42-20-2 ATS in their last 64 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Cam Newton looked like a young man fully-healthy again with the mental reset of playing in a new environment. Don’t underestimate how much injuries have slowed him down since his Super Bowl run with Carolina a few years ago. Newton was an efficient 15 of 19 for 155 yards while averaging 8.2 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt last week. He also ran the ball 15 times for 75 yards with two touchdowns. When he is healthy, he is simply money in short-yardage situations. And don’t sleep on the New England defense despite losing a handful of players who opted-out this season. The Patriots’ secondary remains elite led by cornerback Stephon Gilmour. The front-seven is a work-in-progress which is why controlling possession is so important. New England limited the Dolphins to just 169 yards of offense last week while averaging a mere 4.6 Yards-Per-Play — and they forced three turnovers. Since the start of 2019, the Patriots lead the NFL in these defensive categories still: allowing 13.9 PPG; allowing only 275.5 total YPG; 28 interceptions; opponent Passer Rating of 61.7. New England has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. It is not often that Belichick-coached teams are underdogs — and New England is 34-15-3 ATS in their last 52 games when getting the points. Seattle defeated the (now 0-2) Falcons last week despite being outgained by -123 net yards in that game. The Seahawks surrendered a troubling 506 yards to Atlanta in that game. Seattle has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win. The defense improved significantly with the acquisition of Jamal Adams — but this team remains suspect with both their offensive and defensive lines. The Seahawks are just 3-7-1 ATS in the last 11 games in September.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has the reputation for having a strong home-field advantage — but they will be without their “twelfth man advantage” with no fans in the crowd raising the decibel levels. As it is, the Seahawks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (287) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (272) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (271). THE SITUATION: Miami (0-1) looks to bounce-back from a 21-11 loss at New England as a 7-point underdog last Sunday. Buffalo (1-0) comes off a 27-17 win at home against the New York Jets as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami struggled to generate offense against the tough Patriots defense — they managed only 169 yards of offense last week. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick struggled with three interceptions last week. But Fitzmagic has a nice track record when facing the Bills. In his last four games against Buffalo, Fitzpatrick is averaging 297.3 passing YPG while completing 68.8% of his passes with four touchdown passes and just one interception while posting a Passer Rating of 100.1. Head coach Brian Flores usually gets every ounce of talent from his roster — and he should have his team play hard this afternoon. The Dolphins have rebounded to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a loss on the road. Miami has also been a dangerous underdog under Flores as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when getting the points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as the underdog. Additionally, the Dolphins should have a home edge with the Bills traveling to muggy South Beach. Miami has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after a win at home against an AFC East rival. The Bills have also failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 30 games after a double-digit win over a divisional foe. Buffalo has sky-high expectations this season with New England perhaps taking a step back in the post-Tom Brady era. But the Bills are loaded with injuries — especially at linebacker with starters Matt Milano and stud Tremaine Edmunds out for this game. That is not a good sign for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has won the last three meetings between these two teams after sweeping both games last year. The Bills won in South Beach in the most recent encounter on November 17th by a 37-20 score as a 7-point favorite. Flores probably had Buffalo as his number one work priority in the offseason — and in Flores I trust. 25* AFC East Game of the Month with the Miami Dolphins (272) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (271). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (102) minus the point(s) versus the San Francisco 49ers (101). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (14-4) has won eight straight games with their 35-24 victory over Tennessee on January 19th in the AFC Conference Championship Game as a 7.5-point favorite. San Francisco (15-3) joined them in the Super Bowl later that day with their 37-20 victory over Green Bay as an 8-point favorite. The Super Bowl will be played on a neutral field in Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Frankly, I began to consider Kansas City a team of destiny when they rallied from their 24-0 deficit to Houston to win that game by a 51-31 score in the AFC Divisional Playoffs. With New England losing to the Titans that weekend, it just looked like the seas were beginning to part for head coach Andy Reid to finally win his first Super Bowl after long being considered one of the dean’s of NFL coaches. Reid has led his teams to victory in twenty-one of their last twenty-four games after a bye week with his teams also posting a 19-9 ATS record after a bye week in his coaching career. After everything went as I expected in both Conference Championship Games, I was prepared to officially endorse the Chiefs in this game — but I decided to wait to watch the line movement for a few days while also clearing my head to help ensure I was not succumbing to confirmation bias. The best argument for the San Francisco side of the equation relates to the success of underdogs in the Super Bowl coming in with the better defense. So I looked at the Chiefs record against Top-Ten defenses (as decided by the weighted DVOA metric at Football Outsiders). Kansas City faced three top-seven defenses this season: at New England (#4th in DVOA weighted defense); home to Minnesota (#7th in DVOA weighted defense); home to Baltimore (#2nd in DVOA weighted defense). The Chiefs won all three games with the average score being 27.3-22.3. Furthermore, Kansas City averaged 408.7 YPG in those three games with 288 of those yards coming in the air at a 7.71 Yards-Per-Attempt clip — and those numbers compare pretty favorably to their 29.8 PPG, 383.4 total YPG and 283 passing YPG at a 7.9 YPA season average entering this game. The most telling game seems to be the Chiefs’ 33-28 win against the Ravens since the Baltimore team’s physical presence along with their emphasis on a power rushing attack is similar to the San Francisco formula for success. I then looked at how Kansas City performed against Top-Ten rushing attacks (as defined by DVOA). The Chiefs had five games against Top-Eight rushing offenses according to DVOA. I threw out the loss to Green Bay since that was one of the two games that Patrick Mahomes missed due to injury. Kansas City was 2-2 in those other four games as they defeated the Ravens while losing to Indianapolis and splitting two games with the Titans. The average score in those two games was 28.3 to 26.8 in favor of the Chiefs. And while they allowed 173.3 rushing YPG in those four contests with opposing rushers averaging 5.5 Yards-Per-Carry, that did not stop the Mahomes-led offense to average 440.3 total YPG (almost 60 YPG above their season average). With those past results, I am unpersuaded that the elite 49ers defense nor their ability to effectively run the football will significantly slow down Mahomes and this powerful KC offense. It is hard to then ignore that the Chiefs have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a double-digit victory — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning at least two in a row by double-digits. Kansas City has also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game including those last four situations. San Francisco is riding high after their easy win over the Packers where they raced out to a 24-0 halftime lead. But the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 35 of their last 54 road games after a victory by at least 14 points. Furthermore, San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. The red flag regarding the outstanding 49ers’ defense is they have tended to struggle against mobile quarterbacks. In looking at their four games against NFC West rivals Seattle and Arizona with Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray along with their game against Baltimore with Lamar Jackson, San Francisco did win just three of those games with the average scoring being 26.2-23.8 (and while that is still a winning margin, it is -9.9 net PPG plummet from their +12.3 PPG net differential for the season). The Niners held the offenses in those five games to 318 YPG which is still very low — but it is also +39 YPG more than their season average. Those quarterbacks completed 67.5% of their 154 combined passes in those games while averaging 192.0 passing YPG which was +22.8 passing YPG above their season average. Perhaps most importantly for this game, the quarterbacks ran for a combined 284 yards in those five games on 43 carries for 6.6 Yards-Per-Carry average while adding 56.8 rushing YPG. What is critical about these rushing numbers is that they are more likely to occur on 3rd and 4th downs and/or in the Red Zone. Mahomes is usually frugal when deciding to run the football — but he did average 15.6 rushing YPG this season on 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry. This is an area where he may take advantage of the Niners’ outstanding four-man rush. Mahomes will likely also pick on 49ers’ cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon who Pro Football Focus ranks as the 50th of the 95 cornerbacks who had at least 300 snaps this season. Witherspoon has wilted at times this season when his confidence gets shaken while struggling in the Red Zone — and this Chiefs’ offense is loaded with weapons that will preclude the Niners from hiding Witherspoon. The Niners did bench Witherspoon in the playoffs for undrafted free agent Emmanuel Moseley — but at 5’11 and 190-lbs, he is a matchup nightmare against the 6’5 and 260-lb Travis Kelce even if his player was an improvement over Witherspoon. Kansas City is 5th in the NFL by averaging 281.1 passing YPG — and the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after eight games into the season against teams who average at least 260 passing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Once I concluded that the San Francisco defense is not likely to slow down Mahomes and this Chiefs’ offense, the edge Kansas City has at quarterback will likely be the difference. Jimmy Garoppolo is a fine QB who has executed quite well on 3rd down and deserves tons of credit for outdueling Drew Brees in the Niners’ 48-46 win in New Orleans. But Garoppolo is still a bit inexperienced in big games when compared to Mahomes who was winning a coin flip away from winning the AFC Championship Game in overtime last year against the Patriots from reaching the Super Bowl. There are also some throws that Garoppolo struggles with as he continues to develop. While it doesn’t mean everything, it does something that head coach Kyle Shanahan asked Garoppolo to throw the ball only 14 times after his bad interception in the NFC Divisional Playoff round game against Minnesota. Frankly, probably every QB in the NFL right now is at a disadvantage to Mahomes. KC also has a decided edge in Special Teams in this game. With the point spread closer to pick ‘em than the hook, look for Superman Mahomes to fulfill what seems to be his destiny while finally codifying Reid in the pantheon of the elite head coaches in NFL history. 25* NFL Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (102) minus the point(s) versus the San Francisco 49ers (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (312) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (311). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (14-3) has won three straight games after they dispatched of Minnesota last week by a 27-10 score as a 7-point favorite. Green Bay (14-3) has won six straight games with their 28-23 win over Seattle last week as a 4.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning at least three games in a row. This Green Bay team has been difficult to figure out when considering that they are being outgained this season. The Packers have seen ten of their opponents win the yardage battle against them which is a hard way to win fourteen of one’s seventeen games. The football analytics community is well behind other sports (most notably, basketball) in appreciating that, while winning or losing close games often is a function of luck (or, better phrased: coin flip situations that can go either way that then have a disproportionate impact on the outcome of the game), there are attributes that help teams win close games. Free throw proficiency helps teams win close games in basketball. Outstanding quarterback play helps teams win close games in football. Aaron Rodgers may have seen his productivity decline since 2016 — but he is still very good in crunch time (and he avoids negative plays like interceptions). So, having said all that regarding my appreciation for this Packers’ team, this is a bad matchup for them. San Francisco controls the clock on offense for 32:01 minutes per game — and Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams who average at least 32 minutes per game on offense. The Niners are 2nd in the NFL by averaging 29.9 PPG — and the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the second half of the season against teams who score at least 24 PPG. And while the San Francisco defense holds their opponents to just 5.2 Passing Yards-Per-Attempt, Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams who do not allow more than 5.2 YPA in the passing game after eight games into the season. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win at home. The 49ers have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. The San Francisco defense flexed their muscles in that game by holding the Vikings to just 147 total yards. The 49ers have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 200 yards in their last contest. And while their game last week finished well below the 44.5 point total, San Francisco has then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The Niners defense ranks 2nd in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 281.8 total YPG — and this unit has been fortified with the return of Kwon Alexander and Dee Ford from injuries. The 49ers get to host this game in Levi Stadium where they are 7-2 this season with an average winning margin of +13.2 PPG. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The 49ers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay is looking to avenge a 37-8 loss at San Francisco back on November 24th. A concern with this Packers team is that they are soft on the offensive and defensive line — and the physical 49ers were able to expose that vulnerability. Maybe (probably). I am persuaded with Green Bay failing to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when attempting to avenge a loss where they surrendered at least 28 points — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge from a loss by at least four touchdowns. 25* NFC Game of the Year with the San Francisco 49ers (312) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (306) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (305). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (12-4) ended the regular season winning six straight games with their 31-21 victory at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 10-point favorite. Houston (11-6) has won three of their last four contests with their 22-19 win over Buffalo in overtime last Saturday as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas City is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. The Chiefs have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They should build off the momentum of their six-game winning streak as they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a double-digit victory — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a double-digit win against a divisional rival. And in their last 7 games after a home win against an AFC West foe, Kansas City has covered the point spread 6 times. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has not had as spectacular a fantasy season this year — but he still leads a potent offense that is 5th in the NFL by scoring 28.2 PPG while leading a passing attack that is also 5th in the league by averaging 281.5 passing YPG (despite their dynamic wide receiver, Tyreek Hill, missing some games). But the impressive aspect of this Chiefs’ team is the bump in the play of defensive coordinator’s Steve Spagnuolo unit in the second year in his system which has become commonplace after similar results occurred at his previous spots (including with a Super Bowl-winning NY Giants team). Kansas City has held its last six opponents to just 11.5 PPG — and their last three opponents have scored only 9.0 PPG while averaging just 283.7 total YPG. The Chiefs ended the season 8th in the NFL in opponent’s Expected Points Added per play and 7th in opponent’s EPA on pass plays. Kansas City now retains big situational advantages getting an extra week to rest and prepare while staying at home for three weeks. Head coach Andy Ryan has seen his teams cover the point spread in 18 of their 27 games coming off a bye week in his career. The Chiefs are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games at home. And in their last 10 games when laying 3.5 to 10 points, Kansas City has covered the point spread in 7 of these games. Houston may be due for a letdown as they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Frankly, this is a team that has been carried by Deshaun Watson who is frequently asked to overcome a shaky defense and a head coach in Bill O’Brien who does not always put his team in the best position to succeed given his tactical decisions. The Texans are being outscored this season by -0.5 PPG. They are also being outgained by -26.3 YPG — and this gets worse on the road where they have been outgained by -48.0 net YPG when playing on the road. Houston’s defense is below average as they allow 388.3 total YPG which is 28th in the league — and they have surrendered 442.3 total YPG over their last three contests. The Texans have spent much of the season trailing in their games which is very strange for a team that won eleven games in the regular season. And this Houston team has been outscored by a 34-0 score in the first half of their last two playoff games under O’Brien’s command after going into halftime last week at home by a 13-0 score to the Bills. Mahomes will punish this Texans team if they continue to be that anemic in the first half of this one. Now after playing their last two games at home, Houston goes on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the October 13th encounter between these two teams in Arrowhead Stadium as well where the Texans pulled off a 31-24 upset victory as a 3.5-point underdog. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging a loss decided by a touchdown or less — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with same-season revenge from an upset loss. 25* AFC Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (306) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (302) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (301). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (13-3) closed out the regular season winning their last two games after their 26-21 victory at Seattle for Sunday Night Football back on December 29th as a 3.5-point favorite. Minnesota (11-6) snapped a two-game losing streak last Saturday with their 26-20 upset win in overtime at New Orleans as a 7.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: That was a huge emotional victory for tat Vikings team on the road and particularly for Kirk Cousins who may have permanently removed the proverbial money that has been on his back regarding his failure to step up in big games. Cousins was solid but not spectacular against the Saints by completing 19 of 31 passes for 242 yards with a touchdown pass. But this situation is eerily similar to Minnesota’s miracle victory over New Orleans in the playoffs two years ago under head coach Mike Zimmer which was then followed up by them being completely flat on the road to another number one seed in the NFC at Philadelphia with the Eagles crushing them by a 38-7 score. As it is, the Vikings have only covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win. Frankly, I don’t think Minnesota wins that game if Drew Brees does commit that rare fumble that he suffered in what looked like a go-ahead drive midway through the 4th quarter. And then winning the coin flip in overtime helped tremendously as the Vikings then scored a touchdown to negate Brees get another chance with the football. Despite the victory, Minnesota is still only scoring 18.3 PPG over their last three contests while averaging just 267.0 total YPG over that span which is far below their 25.4 PPG and 353.5 total YPG season average. They did get running back Dalvin Cook back last week after he took the last couple of games off to close out the regular season — but he is still averaging just 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry in his last seven games. The Vikings wide receivers are also less than 100% this week with Stefan Diggs dealing with an illness and Adam Thielen suffering an ankle injury that may slow him down. These are not great developments for a team that is used to playing on artificial turf as they did again last week. But when playing on grass as will be the case in Levi Stadium, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games. San Francisco secured their bye week and home field throughout the NFC playoffs with their clutch victory on the road against the Seahawks. The 49ers held Seattle scoreless in the first half of that game — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. QB Jimmy Garoppolo was very sharp in that game as he completed 18 of 22 passes for 285 yards while leading an offense that generated 398 total yards. The Niners are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. San Francisco has won five of their last seven games — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. The 49ers are 2nd in the league by scoring 29.9 PPG — and that number rises to 32.4 PPG at home where they are outscoring their opponents by +12.8 PPG and outgained their guests by +108.3 net YPG. San Francisco is also 2nd in the NFL by limiting their opponents to only 281.8 total YPG — and they will be getting the heart and soul of their defense back for this game in Kwon Alexander who has missed half the season with his chest injury.

FINAL TAKE: Teams unfamiliar with this Niners team has struggled as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against non-divisional opponents. San Francisco has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Minnesota’s victory last week was just their first win on the road against a team with a winning record all season. It was also just their first playoff win on the road since 2004. Yet the Vikings have still failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record. 25* NFC Divisional Playoff Game of the Year with the San Francisco 49ers (302) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (148) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (147). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (9-7) has won four straight games with their 34-17 win at New York against the Giants as a 4-point favorite. Seattle (11-5) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Both of these teams are hit hard by injuries. The good news for Philadelphia is that it looks like tight end Zach Ertz, running back Miles Sanders, and cornerback Jalen Mills will take the field today. Yet even relying on former practice squad, head coach Doug Pederson and his offensive coaching staff have been making things work. Over their last three games, the Eagles have scored 29.3 PPG along with averaging 415.3 total YPG. The foundation has been quarterback Carson Wentz who has asserted himself as the leader of this team. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a double-digit victory. The coaching staff has been forced to be innovative with all their injuries but they are finding ways to move the football. For example, since Week Fourteen, Wentz has completed 28 of his 31 screen passes for 237 yards which is the most in the NFL over that span. Pederson is not stranger to coaching his team up in the playoffs as an underdog — over the last three seasons, he has lead his team to four upset wins in five playoff games when getting the points. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 playoff games as the underdog. The Eagles have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games in January. Furthermore, Philadelphia has held their eight visitors to just 16.7 PPG along with only 273.6 total YPG which has helped them cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog. Seattle has been the beneficiary of turnover luck and mossed field goal luck which has helped them overcome getting outgained in yardage this season. And while the Seahawks are 7-1 on the road this year, they are being outgained by -6.8 net YPG overall in those games. Seattle has lost their original top three running backs on their depth chart to injury. Left tackle Duane Brown is also out with his biceps injury which takes away the most effective offensive lineman from a unit that ranks just 24th in Adjusted Sack Rate. The Seahawks are being outgained by -74.7 net YPG over their last three games given a slowed-down offense that is scoring only 21.3 PPG while averaging 333.3 total YPG during that span. Russell Wilson’s potential MVP campaign has waned in the second half of the season. After posting 100+ QB Ratings in eight of his first nine games, Wilson has registered just one game earning a QBR of 100 or better over his last seven starts. Seattle did not score in the first half last week against the 49ers — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread after failing to score at least a field goal in the first half of their last game. They also are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against NFC opponents. And in their last 7 games in the playoffs, the Seahawks have failed to cover the point spread 5 times.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of Seattle’s 17-9 victory in Philly back on November 24th. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 32 of their last 52 games when looking to avenge a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 32 of their last 52 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they did not score at least 14 points. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the Philadelphia Eagles (148) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (147). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (130) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (129). THE SITUATION: Seattle (11-4) has lost two of their last three games with their 27-13 upset loss at home to Arizona as an 8-point favorite lat Sunday. San Francisco (12-3) has won two of their last three games with their 34-31 win over the Los Angeles Rams as a 7-point favorite last Saturday night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Much is at stake in this game with the winner taking the NFC West crown with the loser taking the 5th seed in the playoffs and a date on the road next week. If the 49ers win this game, they also secure the top seed in the NFC side of the playoff bracket. Seattle is a M*A*S*H unit right now with their stable of running backs decimated by injuries and left tackle Duane Brown out with a bicep injury. The Seahawks had to resort to signing former players Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin off the street to serve as the running backs this week. While this is not ideal, if there is one position (outside of kicker) where a team could sign a player off the street and still see success that week, it is at running back — and both players are familiar with the playbook already. In head coach Pete Carroll and quarterback Russell Wilson, we will trust in this one to develop a game plan that puts his offense in a position to succeed even with this attrition. Seattle is 37-18-14 ATS in their last 69 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a loss at home. The Seahawks have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. The offense has struggled as of late with the offensive line not giving Wilson enough time in the pocket — he has been sacked 26 times over the last six games. Yet Seattle has scored at least 27 points in three of those contests. The Seahawks are also just 4-3 at home this season — but it would be foolish to diminish the home field edge they will enjoy tonight. Seattle is 33-15-3 in their last 51 games as an underdog — and they have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games at home as the dog. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Niners play on defense has collapsed since the injury of the heart and soul of their defense in linebacker Kwon Alexander. After holding their opponents to just 11 PPG in their first seven contests, they have allowed their last eight opponents to average 26.5 PPG. This defense has become even more banged up as the season goes on with this unit now missing defensive lineman Dee Ford and safety Jaquiski Tartt. The Niners have allowed their last three opponents to score 35.3 PPG while averaging 383.3 total YPG which is -105.9 net YPG above their defensive season average. San Francisco has allowed their last three opponents to score at least 29 points — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 41 of their last 62 games after allowing their last two opponents to score at least 25 points. The Niners allowed the Rams to pass for 323 yards last week — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. This team does not embrace the role of the favorite as they are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games when laying the points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road as the favorite. San Francisco is also just 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games against teams from the NFC with this including them going 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against fellow NFC West foes.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers will be looking to avenge a 27-24 upset loss at home in overtime to the Seahawks back on November 11th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging a loss at home. San Francisco is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 trips to Seattle to play the Seahawks. 25* NFC West Game of the Year with the Seattle Seahawks (130) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (129). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (132) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (131). THE SITUATION: Denver (6-9) has won three of their last four games with their 27-17 win over Detroit as a 9.5-point favorite last Sunday. Oakland (7-8) remained alive in the AFC playoff race last week with their 24-17 upset win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 7.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: The Raiders need to win this game and then see Tennessee and Pittsburgh lose with Indianapolis winning (for strength of victory tie-break implications) and then a little more help to bolster their strength of victory tie-breaker resume (like New England winning) — so the pressure is on head coach Jon Gruden’s group. The Steelers and Titans are both on the road so this playoff scenario is not completely out of the realm. But I do not expect Oakland to play well. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 47 of their last 74 games after an upset victory — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in seven of these last nine situations. Oakland has also failed to cover the point spewed in 23 of their last 32 games after an upset victory over an AFC West rival — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in these last four situations. Additionally, the inconsistent Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after a point spread victory. Oakland enters this game far from at full strength with rookie phenom Josh Jacobs out with his shoulder injury and the offensive line banged up with left tackle Trent Brown out and guard Richie Incognito questionable with an ankle. The Raiders defense is also depleted with injuries to safety Karl Joseph and defensive end Arden Key making the season-ending suspension to linebacker Vontaz Burfict even more devastating. There is a reason why this team had lost four straight games before they upset a reeling Chargers team. Oakland stays on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after losing three of their last four games. The Raiders are being outscored by -10.8 PPG away from home while allowing their home hosts to score 29.9 PPG. Oakland is 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 road games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Raiders have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 road games as an underdog. Furthermore, Oakland has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams from the AFC — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December. Denver is playing for next season as they hope to build momentum under first-year head coach Vic Fangio and quarterback Drew Lock. The rookie has played well since getting a look under center — he completed 25 of 33 passes last week for 192 yards with one touchdown pass and no interceptions in leading the Broncos to victory. Denver is completing 65.3% of their passes over their last three games while averaging 233 passing YPG on a solid 6.9 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt average with Lock taking the vast majority of those snaps. The Broncos are scoring 22.7 PPG while averaging 330.0 total YPG over those last three games which is a nice improvement over their 17.7 PPG and 302.6 YPG season averages. Any bump in offensive production makes this a much better team given the outstanding defense this team still plays. Denver ranks 10th in the NFL in both allowing only 20.1 PPG and surrendering just 327.7 total YPG. The Broncos are even stingier at home where they hold their visitors to just 18.3 PPG along with only 300.6 total YPG. Denver has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games with the Total set at 38.5 to 42. The Broncos have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Denver will be motivated not only to build momentum for next season but also to play the role of spoiler for the Raiders’ playoff hopes. The Broncos will also be looking to avenge a 24-16 upset loss in Oakland back on September 9th where they were 3-point favorites. Denver has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when avenging an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a road favorite. 25* AFC West Game of the Year with the Denver Broncos (132) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (131). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (451) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (452). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Sunday with their 44-21 upset loss at Dallas as a 1-point favorite. San Francisco (11-3) has lost two of their last three games with their 29-22 upset loss at home to Atlanta as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles was embarrassed last week on the late window game on national television. They should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Rams have covered the point spread in 11 go their last 17 games after suffering an upset loss by at least two touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in all 3 of their games after being upset this season. They need to get the ball to running back Todd Gurley more after he only rushed the ball 11 times last week. While Gurley seems to have lost his lateral speed, the Los Angeles offense has been at its most effective when they remained committed to running the football to better set up their play-action passing for quarterback Jared Goff. After experiencing a midseason slump, Goff has averaged 333.7 passing YPG over his last three games while tossing two touchdown passes in each contest. The Rams’ improvement this week needs to be on the other side of the football after surrendering 475 yards to the Cowboys while falling behind by a 28-7 score at halftime. The Los Angeles defense has not allowed more than 20 points in ten games this season so they should respond with a strong effort. The Rams have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 35 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last contest. Surprisingly, LA has been a better road team this season after having a significantly better at home last year. In their six true home games, the Rams are 3-3 while being outscored by -3.9 PPG and outgained by -13.4 net YPG. In their eight games away from the Los Angeles, the Rams are 5-3 with an average winning margin of +6.2 PPG while winning the yardage battle by +69.1 net YPG. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. San Francisco is also looking to rebound from an upset loss — but injuries on defense have changed the dynamic of this team. Losing linebacker Kwon Alexander took away the heart and soul of that unit — and that group has suffered a string of injuries ever since that late-October season-ending injury. The 49ers have allowed 25.9 PPG over their last seven games after limiting their first seven opponents to a mere 11 PPG. They have picked off only one pass over those last seven games and they have managed only three sacks over their last three games. San Fran has allowed 75 combined points over their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 61 games after allowing at least 25 points in two straight contests. The Niners have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. San Francisco stays at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45 point range. Additionally, the 49ers are just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 home games as the favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games this season when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco is just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games against fellow NFC West foes — and they have a more important game on deck with Seattle next week that will likely determine the NFC West champion so they may be caught looking ahead. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against divisional opponents — and they will be motivated to avenge a 20-7 upset loss at home to the Niners back on October 13th as a 3-point favorite. The Rams have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 14 points. 25* NFL Network Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Rams (451) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (313) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (314). THE SITUATION: Houston (8-5) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week at home against Denver in an embarrassing 38-24 loss despite being an 8-point underdog. Tennessee (8-5) has won four straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 42-21 win at Oakland as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS PLUS THE POINTS: Houston should respond with a strong effort this afternoon — they have not lost two straight games in their last twenty-seven contests. The Texans have been consistently reliable this season coming off a loss this season. They have won all four of their games after a defeat so far this season while averaging 28.3 PPG along with 409.8 total YPG fueled by a ground game that has averaged 130.3 rushing YPG in those contests. Houston has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 ames after a double-digit loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss as a favorite laying at least 6 points. Additionally, the Texans are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a point spread loss. And Houston has covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after playing a game on their home field. The Texans did end up outgaining the Broncos by 23 net yards but could not dig themselves out of the hole from their 31-3 halftime deficit. Houston has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. Tennessee has been one of the hottest teams in the league since Ryan Tannehill has taken over as the starting quarterback — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning at least three games in a row. The Titans have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Furthermore, Tennessee is just 16-36-1 ATS in their last 51 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Tannehill was spectacular against the porous Raiders’ defense as he completed 21 of 27 passes for 391 yards while leading an offense that generated 552 total yards. But the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after passing for at least 350 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 500 yards in their last game. But a concern for this team is their defense after they allowed Oakland to gain 355 yards. Tennessee is just 19th in the NFL this season by allowing 361.5 total YPG — and they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Opponents have found success in the passing game against this Titans defense that allows 259.9 passing YPG which is 25th in the NFL — and their secondary is banged up entering this game. Tennessee is also being outgained at home by -44.9 net YPG when playing at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans are just 16-33-1 ATS in their last 50 games against fellow AFC South opponents — and they are just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games against the Texans. And wide receiver Will Fuller is expected to play again for the Texans — and they have won eleven of their last fourteen games with a healthy fuller complement wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Expect a close game where Houston will be in a position to pull the upset. 25* AFC South Underdog of the Year with the Houston Texans (313) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Oakland Raiders (156) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (155). THE SITUATION: Oakland (6-6) has lost two straight games after their 40-9 loss at Kansas City last week as an 11-point underdog. Tennessee (7-5) has won three games in a row with their 31-17 win at Indianapolis as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: Oakland has been outscored by a humiliating 74 to 12 margin over their last two games with trips to coach weather New York against the Jets before their trip to a chilly Kansas City last week. Perhaps the playoff talk for this team was premature — but this is still a hardworking and well-coached team. They should rebound with a stronger effort today as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. They did outgain the Chiefs last week by +73 net yards so that final score was much worse than the reality on the ground where a Kansas City interception return for a touchdown along with some big plays on offense made the difference. Now Oakland returns home to the Coliseum where they are 4-1 this season to begin a final two-game homestand before moving to Las Vegas next season. The Raiders have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home. Oakland has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games as the underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games when getting 3 points or less. Tennessee has won five of their last six games behind quarterback Ryan Tannehill who has jumpstarted the offense — but this team looks primed for an emotional letdown after defeating an AFC South rival on the road. The Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They only gained 292 yards of offense last week against the Colts in a game where they were outgained by -99 net yards — and they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. They are also 15-36-1 ATS in their last 52 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. Now this team goes back on the road for just the third time in their last seven contests after playing four of their last six games in Nashville. UPDATE: Runnin back Josh Jacobs has been declared inactive for this game with his shoulder that now looks like he re-injured last week. He has been dealing with a shoulder injury for weeks that has not stopped him from playing. While disappointing, the Raiders remain a 25* play — Oakland has serviceable replacement level players at running back while this is a bounce-back situation for QB Derek Carr (and the Raiders defense) playing back at home after two bad games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee is being outgained on the road by -20.0 YPG — and they are just 7-15-2 ATS in their last 24 road games as the favorite. 25* AFC Underdog of the Year on the Oakland Raiders (156) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (155). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (141) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (142). THE SITUATION: Carolina (5-7) has lost four games in a row with their 29-21 upset loss to Washington as a 10.5-point favorite last week. Atlanta (3-9) has lost two in a row with their 26-18 loss at home to New Orleans on Thanksgiving as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Carolina fired their long-time head coach, Ron Rivera, this week in this lost season. Perry Fewell takes over as the interim head coach in a role he also served on an interim basis in Buffalo back in 2009. Scott Turner has also been elevated to the interim offensive coordinator with his father, Norv, installed as an assistant to the head coach. Now the everyone’s job on the line, look for an inspired effort from this Panthers’ team today — and they also will have an element of surprise with the changes that will come from the assistant coaching staff changes. Carolina has bounced back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. And while the Panthers surrendered 362 yards to the Skins last week, they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Carolina has been a solid road team this season — they are 3-3 on the road while averaging a healthy 25.2 PPG. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Additionally, while Carolina has only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 37 of their last 56 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. The Falcons are playing for next year with an offensive line that was not fixed in the offseason (albeit, injuries did not help). Atlanta has allowed 40 sacks this season after the Saints dropped Matt Ryan nine times last week. The Falcons are just 1-5 at home this season where they are scoring only 17.3 PPG while being outgained by -10.9 PPG. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as the favorite. The Falcons have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Atlanta has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Carolina will also be motivated to avenge an ugly 29-3 upset loss at home to the Falcons as a 4.5-point favorite. The Panthers have covered the point spread in a decisive 39 of their last 54 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 28 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home. 25* NFC South Underdog of the Year with the Carolina Panthers (141) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (102) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (101). THE SITUATION: Chicago (6-6) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 24-20 win at Detroit last Thursday on Thanksgiving Day as a 5.5-point favorite. Dallas (6-6) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 26-15 upset loss to Buffalo as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: After starting the season with three straight wins by double-digits, the Cowboys have lost six of their last nine games. Frankly, if Dallas was going to step-up, the moment was last week at home against a solid Bills team. And they outplayed the Bills by winning the first-down battle by a 32 to 22 margin while outgaining them by +70 yards. Yet this team is finding ways to lose. Dallas has not forced a turnover in four straight games. And while they have gained a healthy 418.7 total YPG over their last three contests, that has translated into just 19.7 PPG. Rookie offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is getting outfoxed by veteran defensive coordinators on big downs. The Red Zone success rate for scoring touchdowns in these last three games is just at 45.5% which represents a decline from their 54.8% touchdown success rate in the end zone for the season. Kicking woes are certainly playing a part in the malaise with this team after placekicker Brett Maher missed two gimme-field goals last week. Maher has missed five of his eleven field goal attempts from 30 to 49 yards which is the second-worst in the league. Head coach Jason Garrett is clearly on the hot seat but perhaps the players are ready for a change. Now this team goes back on the road where they are scoring 24.0 PPG while averaging 398.0 total YPG which is not nearly as impressive as their 27.7 PPG scoring mark at home where they also generate 468.1 total YPG. The Bears average only 281.8 total YPG — but Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 25 road games against teams who do not average more than 285 total YPG. And while the Cowboys surrendered 356 yards last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The team got more bad news this week with their star linebacker, Leighton Vander Esch, declared out for tonight’s game with a neck injury. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on Thursday Night Football. This has also been an unreliable team in expected close games as they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored by up to 3 points. Chicago has gotten back to winning helped by facing a weak schedule — but that has given this team confidence. The Bears have then covered the point spread in 6 of the last 9 games after a win on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 6 points or less. Mitchell Trubisky has been playing with more confidence and verve as well as of late. Over his last four games, he has completed 94 of his 145 passes (65%) for 979 yards with eight TD passes and just four interceptions for a solid 91.1 Quarterback Rating. Over their last three games, the Bears are averaging 340.3 total YPG which is almost 60 YPG above their 281.8 total YPG season average. Just average production on offense will make a big difference for this team that is still playing outstanding defense. Chicago ranks 4th in the NFL by allowing 17.3 PPG while also ranking 7th in the league by giving up just 319.7 total YPG — and this team holds their visitors to just 16.0 PPG along with only 281.7 total YPG when playing at home. This elite defense makes this team a very dangerous home dog — they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games at home while going 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games as the underdog. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set at 42.5 to 49. And while the Cowboys average 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry, Chicago has covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 home games against teams who average at least 4.5 YPC.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog getting up to a field goal. These are two playoff teams from last season who had deeper metrics that predicted the downturn we are now witnessing. However, Chicago is feeling a little better about themselves right now — and Dallas is a dome team favored on the road in cold weather with temperatures expected in the low-40s. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year with the Chicago Bears (102) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (476) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (475). THE SITUATION: Seattle (9-2) has won four straight games as well as seven of their last eight games with their 17-9 win at Philadelphia as a 1-point favorite last week. Minnesota (8-3) has won two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 27-23 win over Denver at home as a 10-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: With Seattle being around a field goal favorite at home in this NFC showdown, I expect Russell Wilson to outduel Kirk Cousins. The Seahawks have won twenty of their last twenty-two games in Prime-Time. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. Seattle returns home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Wilson is leading an offense that is 3rd in the league by averaging 385.4 total YPG. The Seahawks defense has been playing better as of late as they have held their last three opponents to 22.3 PPG along with 354.7 total YPG which is -1.6 PPG and -15.6 YPG below their season averages. This Seattle defense has also been more opportunistic as of late as well as they have forced sixteen turnovers over their last six games as well triggering eight takeaways in their last two games. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in four of their last six games — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. Additionally, Seattle has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in Weeks 10 through 13 of the regular season under head coach Pete Carroll — and they are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 appearances on Monday Night Football. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win. The Vikings have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 road games after a straight-up win at home where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Minnesota does have an elite roster — but they have still failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. Cousins has lost eight of his last twelve starts over the last two seasons against teams with a winning record as well. And despite their string of victories, there are some warning signs for this team. The offense is averaging just 331.0 total YPG over their last three games which is -47.6 net YPG below their season mark. The Vikings are also allowing 24.3 PPG along with 404.7 total YPG over those last three contests which are +5.7 PPG and +66.1 YPG above their season average.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 appearances on Monday Night Football — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 trips to Seattle to play the Seahawks. I am not standing in the way of that evidence. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Year is on the Seattle Seahawks (476) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (472) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (471). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (6-5) has won five of their last six games with their 16-10 win in Cincinnati last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Cleveland (5-6) has won three straight games with their 41-24 win over Miami last week as an 11-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: There is the old saying: “Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned.” A pissed off Mike Tomlin might come in a close second. The Pittsburgh head coach was seething after the Thursday night game back on November 14th between these two teams that ended with the ugly fight on the field that resulted in the Browns’ star defensive end Myles Garrett being suspended indefinitely for using his helmet as a weapon. The rough-house did not start then — Cleveland had already knocked out the Steelers’ top two wide receivers in that game with cheat shots to the helmet. The Browns beat-up Tomlin’s team before the final events of that game. And Tomlin will have his team ready to respond. I don’t quote players or coaches often in my Reports but here is Tomlin this week: “We love being in hot-button games. We love being in hotly contested AFC North games … To be quite honest with you, we're not a group that runs from these types of games. We're the type of group that runs to these types of games. We view it as an honor to be the consistent team in these battles.” Add into this volatile mix that the Steelers are a home underdog to the Browns for the first time since 1989 and Tomlin has a treasure trove of items to motivate his team. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games as an underdog. They also are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a straight-up win. Now they return home after playing their last two games on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Tomlin has also benched the ineffective Mason Rudolph at quarterback by tapping Devlin Hodges as the starter. Hodges is a gunslinger who broke FCS passing records at Samford before wowing coaches who have loved his moxie. It is hard to bench a high draft choice for an FCS guy — but Tomlin’s move in this situation speaks to his coaching staff’s confidence in his skills. In a previous start this season in a victory against the Chargers, the Pittsburgh offensive playbook seemed closer to the one Ben Roethlisberger uses as compared to the lack of a vertical passing game that has been a problem with Rudolph. Hodges completed 15 of 20 passes in the win over the Chargers — and he has completed 27 of his 40 passes this season for a 67.5% completion percentage while averaging a healthy 8.0 Yards-Per-Attempt for 318 passing yards. He has thrown only one interception this season. Injuries have hurt this team on the offensive side of the ball with wide receiver Juju Shuster now declared out for this game as he recovers from his concussion and running back James Conner not doubtful with his shoulder. But the Steelers did rush for 159 yards last week — and they are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Pittsburgh is scoring 24.3 PPG in their six home games — and they are holding their visitors to just 17.8 PPG along with only 290.2 total YPG. This Steelers’ defense has developed into a top unit with the continued development of rookie linebacker Devin Bush and the midseason acquisition of cornerback Minkah Fitzpatrick — they rank 6th in the league by allowing just 320.6 total YPG. Pittsburgh has held its last three opponents to only 14.3 PPG along with just 281.6 total YPG. Cleveland has been inconsistent this season with their talent on paper not matching their mental discipline nor leadership from their rookie head coach Freddie Kitchens. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a win by at least two touchdowns. And while Cleveland’s win over the Dolphins came on the heels of their victory over the Steelers, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning two straight games by double-digits. The Browns gained 467 yards against Miami — but they are 13-30-1 ATS in their last 44 games after gaining at least 350 yards and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Now after playing their last three games at home, the Browns go back on the road where they are just 2-3 while scoring only 19.6 PPG. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. This also remains a team that is just 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: The home team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings of these divisional rivals. Tomlin’s teams have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against AFC North foes. And in the Steelers’ last 43 opportunities to avenge a loss where they scored no more than 14 points, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 29 of these games. 25* AFC North Underdog of the Year with the Pittsburgh Steelers (472) plus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (308) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (307). THE SITUATION: Dallas (6-5) has lost two of their last three games with their 13-9 loss in New England on Sunday as a 5.5-point underdog. Buffalo (8-3) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 20-3 win over Denver last week as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Dallas is feeling the heat this week with owner (and general manager!) Jerry Jones making his frustration with the coaching of Jason Garrett after the loss to the Patriots last week. Expect this team to play with a sense of urgency in this game. Many pundits have noted that the Cowboys are 0-4 this season in their four games against teams with a winning record. However, these “experts” are not observing that Dallas has actually outgained these four winning teams by +84.2 net YPG. The Cowboys outgained the Patriots last week by +39 net yards. Dallas also outgained Minnesota by +228 net yards while winning the yardage battle with Green Bay by +230 net yards. New Orleans is the only one of the four winning teams that the Cowboys have faced that outgained them in yardage — and they only managed to so so by 9 yards. Put another way, if a pundit’s hot take this week had been that Dallas is averaging 396 total YPG against teams with a winning record while holding these winning teams to just 311.8 total YPG, then taking the Cowboys would start to look pretty, pretty, pretty good (to quote Larry David). Garrett’s in-play decision-making is probably not helping matters. Dallas also has the worst Special Teams unit as measured by Football Outsiders (for what that is worth). But they are hosting a Bills team that FO ranks only at 26th in Special Teams this season. Frankly, I suspect Dallas’ 0-4 record versus teams with a winning record speaks largely to some bad luck that is due for regression. The Cowboys have played their last two games on the road — and now they return home where they are outscoring their opponents by +11.2 net YPG while outgaining these opponents by +128.6 net YPG. Dallas’ offense has been tough to stop at home where they are scoring 30.2 PPG while averaging 475.6 total YPG. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Dallas has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in November. And it is not as if these Bills are battle-tested. Buffalo has only faced one team with a winning record — and they lost to the Patriots at home by a 16-10 score. So the Bills are scoring only 21.0 PPG while averaging 352.7 total YPG — ranking 21st and 18th in the NFL — despite playing ten of eleven teams that do not have winning records. This lack of quality of competition puts the development of quarterback Josh Allen in his second season into a bleaker perspective. Buffalo did outgain the Broncos on the ground last week by 145 net yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least +150 yards. The Bills win last week came on the heels of their 37-20 win in Miami the previous week as a touchdown favorite — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning two games in a row. Buffalo has also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after winning two straight games where they also covered the point spread as the favorite. This is a challenging situation for this team to be plashing their third game in eighteen days on the road on a short week of rest and preparation. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a Thursday. And in their last 13 games played with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range, Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 8 times.

FINAL TAKE: Having watched Dak Prescott a bunch this season, I have been impressed — he passes my “eyeball test” when it comes to whether Dallas should sign him to a long-term deal. The Cowboys are more desperate and have the better quarterback — look for them to secure a decisive win at home. 25* NFL Thursday Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (308) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (276) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (275). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (6-4) has won three of their last four games with their 17-7 win over Chicago last Sunday as a 5-point favorite. Baltimore (8-2) has won six straight games with their 41-7 win over Houston at home last week as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a handicapper play tonight — with the public and the so-called “sharps” on the side of the Ravens, this appears to be a situation where taking the contrarian route will prove to be fruitful. Los Angeles has been playing better football as of late. They have outscored their last three opponents by +6.0 PPG while outgaining these foes by +39.3 net YPG. The Rams have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win. And while Los Angeles has covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. The conventional wisdom on the Rams has been their play-action offense has been slowed down since the tail end of last season when defenses started playing 6-1 fronts. But head coach Sean McVay has begun to change the identity of his offense to rely more heavily on his rushing attack. Los Angeles has averaged 30 rushing attempts over their last four games. A commitment to running the football has many non-tangible advantages (that continue to elude the football analytics community). Run-blocking is an easier skill to accomplish — so more running helps to put a struggling offensive line in a better position to succeed. With two second-year players entering the starting lineup this season, the play of the offensive line has been an issue. More running of the football also decreased the pressure and expectations on quarterback Jared Goff. During their three-game losing streak earlier in the season, Goff attempted a combined 117 passes in losses to Tampa Bay and Seattle — and that was simply asking too much of this quarterback. Running the football also burns time off the clock which keeps the team’s defense rested. The Rams have held their last three opponents to just 11.3 PPG along with only 313.7 total YPG. The acquisition of cornerback Jalen Ramsey has certainly helped this talented unit play even better. Ramsey will have the assignment of blanketing the Ravens’ Marquise Brown which will likely eliminate the Baltimore deep passing attack. Led by Aaron Donald, Los Angeles has an outstanding run defense that ranks 4th in the league by allowing only 89.1 rushing YPG. The Bears only ran for 74 yards last week — and the Rams have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Goff will benefit from the return of wide receiver Robert Woods who missed the last few games due to personal issues. Wide receiver Brandin Cooks has also been upgraded to probable after getting cleared from the concussion protocol. Moving forward, the Rams have lost the turnover battle in two straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after having -1 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams from the AFC. Baltimore has looked invincible as of late with wins over Seattle and New England followed up by 36 and 34 point blowout victories over their last two games. The Ravens have covered the point spread in their last four games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games while also failing to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in four straight games. Baltimore had a 28-10 halftime lead over Cincinnati two weeks ago before taking a 14-0 halftime lead over the Texans last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after having double-digit halftime leads in two straight games. The Ravens dominated Houston last week by generating 25 first downs while holding the ball for 36:19 minutes and totaling 491 yards of offense. But Baltimore has then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 450 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after a game where they held the ball for at least 34 minutes while gaining at least 24 first downs. The Ravens also held the Texans to just 110 passing yards last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Baltimore has been vulnerable against opposing passing attacks as they are allowing 238.8 passing YPG which is 17th in the NFL. And while Baltimore has only allowed 20 combined points in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after holding their last two opponents to 14 or fewer points.

FINAL TAKE: While the Rams have not looked as formidable this season as they did last year in making their Super Bowl run, they still are loaded with talent on both sides of the football. And they have plenty of big-game experience. Look for defensive coordinator Wade Phillips to dial-up a scheme that slows down Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ vaunted rushing attack. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Rams (276) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (272) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (271). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (9-1) looks to build on their 36-26 win at home over Arizona last Sunday where they were 10-point favorites. Green Bay (8-2) has won five of their last six games with their 24-16 win over Carolina two Sundays ago where they were 5-point favorites.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: It is foolish to finish handicapping many of these NFL games without first getting the final M*A*S*H* unit reports for both teams. Philadelphia was tempting to me this afternoon — but they simply lacked the reliable healthy targets on offense to make that a worthwhile play even with the avalanche of public money going on the Seahawks. San Francisco looks like they will be in decent shape tonight with both tight end George Kittle and wide receivers Emmanuel Sanders and Deebo Samuel healthy enough to play. Although Jimmy Garoppolo continues to improve after completing 34 of 45 passes for 424 yards with four TD passes last week against the Cardinals even without those weapons. The 49ers will look to run the ball more tonight after they attempted only 19 rushes for 34 yards last week. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to rush for at least 75 yards in their last contest. They should have tons of success running the ball again this Packers defense that is allowing 126.9 rushing YPG which is 25th in the NFL. The problem for this Green Bay defense is they play a Wide-Nine technique that puts tons of pressure on their interior linemen who struggle to hold the line of scrimmage. Those defensive tackles are vulnerable to double-teams — and their Wide-Nine spaces out defenders who could come in to help. The Packers are allowing 4 Yards-Per-Carry on both 1st and 2nd downs which is setting up effective play-action pass opportunities. Green Bay is also 31st in the NFL in Tackles-For-Loss. San Francisco should have great success running the football as they rank 2nd in the league by averaging 149.0 rushing YPG. They are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread loss — and they enjoy a situational advantage by playing at home for their third straight week. The Niners are 4-1 at home this season with an average winning margin of +14.4 net PPG due to their stifling defense that limits their guests to just 17.8 PPG along with only 250.2 total YPG. Green Bay is just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a point spread win — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a bye week. This team traveled just yesterday to the west coast from Milwaukee with head coach Matt Nagy not trusting his players to not party all night as they did in their trip to Los Angeles where they preceded to lay an egg against the Chargers. Don’t be surprised if this team struggles with jet lag. More importantly, one of the reasons we took the Chargers in that game three weeks ago was that the underlying members are not great for this team cruising with just two losses. Five of their wins are by one scoring possession — and the Packers are actually being outgained this season by -18.7 net YPG which usually translates into a 4-6 record after ten games. And while Green Bay is 3-1 on the road, they are being outgained by a whopping 399 to 276.5 yardage margin in those four games. Furthermore, the Packers are being outgained by 78.0 net YPG over their last three contests. Somehow this team continues to win despite leading the league with 2 false starts on offense.

FINAL TAKE: The challenging travel arrangements for the Packers compounds the fact that this is the team’s fourth road game in their last five games. That is not a good sign for a team that faces an opponent that will look to out-muscle them in the trenches. Green Bay is also just 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games in November. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the San Francisco 49ers (272) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (271). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (257) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (258). THE SITUATION: New York (2-8) has lost six straight games after their 34-27 upset loss to the Jets two weeks ago back on November 10th as a 3-point favorite. Chicago (4-6) us reeling as well with five losses in their last six games after their 17-7 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bears are a risky favorite laying close to a touchdown against any NFL opponent right now because of the utter collapse in the confidence of quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. The third-year pro completed 24 of 43 passes last week for 190 yards while leading his offense to just 267 total yards. Chicago is 28th in the NFL by averaging 16.9 PPG — and they are 30th in the legacy by averaging only 262.7 total YPG. Things do not get better at home where they are scoring only 16.0 PPG while averaging winning just 277.8 total YPG. It has become clear that head coach Matt Nagy has lost confidence in Trubisky as he has taken plays out of the playbook — yet the stubborn offensive “genius” is unwilling to adapt the play-calling to Trubisky’s skill set because (and I am paraphrasing) he was not hired by the franchise to deviate from his basic offensive principles. We all can be geniuses if Patrick Mahomes is the one executing our chicken scratches in the sand. With defenses daring the Trubisky to throw the ball down field as they stack the box, the Bears are scoring a mere 13.7 PPG while averaging 219.0 total YPG over their last three games. Chicago rushed for only 74 yards last week — and they have not topped 81 rushing yards in each of their last three games. That is a bad sign for this team moving forward as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to top 99 rushing yards in their last two games. Furthermore, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after not averaging more than 225 Yards-Per-Game over their last three games. Additionally, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The defense has been helping the offense out as of late with the Bears winning the turnover battle in two straight games — but this team has failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 53 games after enjoying a +1 or better net turnover margin in two straight games. New York has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing six games in a row. This team should benefit from their bye week — and head coach Pat Shurmur certainly used the time to vigorously prepare for this game with him being on the hot seat for next season. Expect running back Saquon Barkley to also benefit from the extra week off after he was embarrassed with just one rushing yard against the Jets in 13 carries. The Giants managed only 23 rushing yards overall in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 42 road games after only rushing for up to 75 yards in their last game. Rookie quarterback Daniel Jones has been playing better as of late Since Week Eight, Jones has completed 65.6% of his passes while averaging 280.0 passing YPG with 9 TD passes and only one interception. He has a nice Passer Rating of 100.6 over that span. He will not have tight end Evan Engram for this game as he still deals with his injured foot but wide receiver Sterling Shepard is set to return to the field after clearing the concussion protocol. The Giants have been a good road team relative to the point spread as of late — they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games away from home while also covering the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a losing record at home. New York has also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games on the road as an underdog — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a losing record. And while the Giants have lost the turnover battle in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after having a -1 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: The Giants just 27th in the league in total defense — but facing Trubisky will help them this afternoon. Chicago cannot even bank on piling up field goals with kicker Eddie Pineiro having missed three straight field goals along with four of his last seven attempts. New York has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 meetings with the Bears — expect a close game. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the New York Giants (257) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (258). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (266) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (265). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-5) has lost four games in a row with their 22-14 loss at Philadelphia as a 5-point underdog last Sunday. Detroit (3-4-1) has lost four of their last five games after their 31-24 loss in Oakland last week as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINTS: Taking Chicago was on my short list of sides to still consider this morning after taking into account the final injury reports — and, lo and behold, Matthew Stafford will not playing in this game with doctors ruling him out because of some broken vertebrae in his back. That makes a potentially good play into a great situation. Stafford has been quietly having an MVP level season for this Lions team that ranks 5th in the NFL in total offense. Jeff Driskel will be the quarterback under center for this team despite him not taking part in training camp as he signed with the team during the regular season. Driskel played in nine games with five starts last year for the Bengals where he completed 59.7% of his passes but averaged only 5.7 Yards-Per-Attempt. It is not encouraging that he was cut by Cincinnati after their second preseason game this season after completing just 13 of 27 passes for 136 yards with no touchdowns and one interception. I also assign zero credibility to the fact that he was picked up by the Lions as their management has been disorganized with many/most of their personnel decisions (not involving former Patriots players) — Detroit has rolled through at least three backup quarterbacks this season with Tom Savage, David Fales, and Josh Johnson (offhand) who have all been cut since. Perhaps Driskel is an upgrade over that list of names (perhaps) but he did not have the benefit of training camp to learn the Darrell Bevell offense. Quite simply, Plan A for this team has been Stafford at quarterback — and Plan B is to not worry about Plan B. For a fragile team about ready to form a mutiny against head coach Matt Patricia, this is not a good turn of events. As it is, Stafford was holding things together for this team that has collapsed on the defensive side of the football. The Lions are allowing 27.1 PPG (27th in the NFL) while ranking second-to-last by giving up 424.1 total YPG. They have allowed 33.0 PPG over their last three contests along with 441.0 total YPG — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 400 YPG over their last three games. Their beleaguered secondary is also 31st in the NFL by surrendering 288.4 passing YPG after giving up at least 277 passing yards in five straight games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 275 passing yards in three straight contests. Additionally, Detroit is just 13-27-2 ATS in their last 42 road games against teams with a losing record at home — and they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games in November. The Lions are also 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against fellow NFC North opponents. This defense may be just what the doctor ordered to get quarterback Mitchell Trubisky back on track. Chicago managed just 164 yards of offense last week — but they have then covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 home games after failing to generate at least 200 total yards in their last game. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score at least 15 points in their last game. And while Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in four straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after not covering point spread expectations in three straight contests. Returning home will help this team as they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 home games — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And look for the Bears’ defense to help by forcing Driskel and this Lions’ offense (without their injured running back Kerryon Johnson) to force mistakes and turnovers in this one. Chicago has lost the turnover battle in three straight games — but not only have they covered the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games after suffering a -1 net turnover margin in two straight games but they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 22 games after losing the turnover war in three straight contests. This is also a team that has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams from the NFC North — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit is just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Bears after getting swept last season — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games at Soldier Field playing the Bears. 25* NFC North Game of the Month with the Chicago Bears (266) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (265). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (458) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (457). THE SITUATION: Carolina (4-3) saw their four-game winning streak crumble last Sunday in an embarrassing 51-13 loss at San Francisco as a 4-point underdog. Tennessee (4-4) has won two straight games with their 27-23 win over Tampa Bay as a 2-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS MINSU THE POINTS: Carolina should respond with a strong effort after this big loss. Tight end Greg Olsen addressed the team about the importance of responding with a strong effort for this game with the memory of this team going on a seven game losing streak after getting humiliated in Pittsburgh last season by a 52-21 score. The Panthers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a loss on the road by at least 21 points. Carolina went into halftime trailing by a 27-3 score as they were never competitive in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games after trailing by at least 14 points at halftime of their last game and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after trailing by at least 21 points at halftime of their last contest. Kyle Allen had his worst game as a starter for this team as he threw three interceptions while completing just 19 of 37 passes for 158 yards. The Niners were the first team to pick off an Allen pass this season — the former high school phenom (before a disjointed college career marred by tough internal competitions with Kyler Murray and head coaches jumping ship on him to bigger programs) is still completing 62.3% of his passes this season with 7 touchdowns and just those three interceptions. A healthy Murray under center is in a much better position to execute the schemes of offensive coordinator Norv Turner than a gimpy Cam Newton has been able to in the past. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than 14 points. Additionally, Carolina has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last contest. This remains a ream that has covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 home games after winning at least four of their last five games. Tennessee comes off a perfect 2-0 home stand with their win against the Buccaneers preceded by a 23-20 win over the Rams. But the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning their last two games by 6 points or less. This inconsistent Tennessee team is also 14-29-1 ATS in their last 44 games after a point spread win. The Titans did show some cracks with their defense as they allowed 389 yards to the Bucs — and they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The bigger concerns for this team is on offense with a group that ranks 27th in the NFL by averaging just 299.0 total YPG. Ryan Tannehill has replaced Marcus Mariota under center — but this team is still scoring just 16.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 284.3 total YPG over that span. With defenses being able to stuff the box to stop the Titans running backs, Tennessee has not managed more than 97 rushing yards in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in three straight games. Now this team goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans are just 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games in November. Carolina has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against non-conference opponents. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Carolina Panthers (458) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (457). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (302) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (301). THE SITUATION: Arizona (3-4-1) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 31-9 win at New Orleans as an 11-point underdog. San Francisco (7-0) remained undefeated this year with their 51-13 blowout win over Carolina as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: The final score is not indicative of how close Arizona’s game was last week as they entered the fourth quarter trailing by just a 17-9 score before the Saints pulled away by scoring two final touchdowns. The Cardinals have bounced back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss by at least 21 points. Arizona only had the ball for 22:01 minutes in that game which provides some context as to why they only generated 237 yards of offense. The Cardinals are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. Arizona needs to tighten up on defense after allowing New Orleans to gain 510 total yards of offense. The Cardinals have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 500 yards in their last game. This team had been playing better under rookie head coach Kliff Kinsbury who has shown promise with his offensive schemes by not staying rigid with the Air Raid offense that he deployed at Texas Tech while incorporating more two-tight end formations to embrace the sophistication of the NFL. Rookie quarterback Kyler Murray continues to improve as well — he is completing 64.8% of his passes while throwing for 1768 passing yards in his first eight starts. Murray will not be complemented by a talented running back in Kenyon Drake who was acquired from Miami at the trade deadline to replenish an injury-depleted backfield. San Francisco may be due for a letdown playing on a short week after their dominant win on Sunday. The 49ers are just 15-32-4 ATS in their last 51 games after a win by at least 14 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 34 of their last 52 games on the road after win by at least two touchdowns. San Francisco has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Niners rushed for 232 yards which helped them gain 388 total yards. But San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game — and they are just 14-30-1 ATS in their last 45 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The 49ers defense has been outstanding this season — the 13 points that the Panthers scored on Sunday was the most they have allowed in their last four games. But they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 17 points in four straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona won’t lack for confidence in this game after sweeping the 49ers in their two meetings last year. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against division rivals — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 road games when favored by 7.5 to 10 points. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Arizona Cardinals (302) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (278) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (277). THE SITUATION: Miami (277) has lost their first six games of the season after their 31-21 loss at Buffalo last Sunday as a 17-point underdog. Pittsburgh (2-4) has won two of their last three games with their 24-17 upset win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 6-point underdog two weeks ago back on October 13th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS: There are two technical handicapping angles (for my eyes only) that compel me to love this situation for the Steelers. However, I am reticent to lay so many points in the NFL. But, what I like so much about these NFL primetime games is that I can invest a few hours of time to address and solve concerns I have regarding a handicapping situation. So, I went back to 2017 to look at how double-digit favorites perform. The bottom line reads that favorites laying 10 or more points are just 37-43 ATS since the start of the 2017 season. But, looking deeper, when these favorites are laying at least 14 points, these teams become a profitable 20-13 ATS including 6-3 ATS this season. Now, 20-13 ATS is not a reason to take favorite laying 14 or more points. However, that is enough for me to remove my predisposition to avoid otherwise good situations only because the point spread is so high. Pittsburgh is coming off a bye and needs this victory to stay competitive in what is a still wannabe AFC North division. They are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a point spread victory. The Steelers are also a decisive 50-24-2 ATS in their last 76 games in October which includes them covering the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games played in October which is likely a testament to the continued improvement this team makes under Mike Tomlin and his coaching staff. The defense is certainly playing better as they have held their last three opponents to just 19.0 PPG along with only 292.3 total YPG. Pittsburgh returns home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 appearances on Monday Night Football. Miami is last in the NFL by scoring 10.5 PPG and averaging just 258.7 total YPG — it might not take many points for the Steelers to be covering this point spread. The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a double-digit loss. Additionally, Miami is 7-24-1 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Now the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 12 road games as the underdog. Miami has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as a double-digit underdog.

FINAL TAKE: I have often worried about this Steelers team in situations where they can get complacent. But with Ben Roethlisberger out the season and Mason Rudolph returning at quarterback, I think the sense of urgency should still permeate their locker room. Ryan Fitzpatrick is back as the starting QB for Miami — and he has thrown five interceptions already this season. Pittsburgh is 2nd in the league with 15 takeaways (all since Week Two) — and they are undefeated in their six games against Fitzy as a starter. Finally, I suspect Tomlin will not take the foot off the accelerator tonight as he looks to boost Rudolph’s confidence with a big offensive effort. Lets lay the wood. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (278) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (277). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (251) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (252). THE SITUATION: New York (2-5) has lost three games in a row with their 27-21 upset loss at home to Arizona last week as a 3.5-point favorite. Detroit (2-3-1) has also lost three in a row with their 42-30 loss at home to Minnesota last week as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a loss to a divisional rival. While the loss to the Vikings was deflated, the players on this team were then dealt what they consider to be a sucker punch by management when starting safety Quandre Diggs was traded to the Seattle (who are overjoyed in snagging him). Diggs was a captain of this team — and the Lions only received a fifth round draft pick in return — which is why many players spoke out in anger about this move. Strong organizations could handle these kind of rifts but this is not the Detroit Lions who already had a shaky relationship with second-year head coach Matt Patricia. Don’t be surprised if this team comes out very flat as a touchdown favorite after this recent series of events. The Lions had been playing well by covering the point spread in four straight games before that double-digit loss to Minnesota — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 53 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The play of the defense has collapsed as of late which is not a good sign for Patricia who got this head coaching gig by being considered a defensive guru. After holding their first three opponents to 20.3 PG along with 397.4 total YPG, they have allowed their last three opponents to score 33.0 PPG while averaging 463.0 total YPG with that latter number being last in the NFL over that span. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a game where at least 70 combined points were scored. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 400 YPG over their last three games. Injuries are also beginning to impact this team. Cornerback Darius Slay is not available with a hamstring injury which challenges this defense even further — and starting running back Kerryon Johnson was placed on Injured Reserve with a knee injury. The Lions have been outrushed by -85 and -114 yards in their last two games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after being outrushed by at least 75 yards in two straight games. New York has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after losing three in a row. The Giants need to get off to a faster start after allowing Arizona to take a 17-14 halftime lead last week. Minnesota took an 18-7 halftime lead against them in the previous week — but New York has then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games after allowing at least 17 first half points in two straight games. This team does have running back Saquon Barkley healthy along with tight end Evan Engram — and rookie quarterback Daniel Jones has been solid. Jones completed 22 of 35 passes last week for 223 yards while adding 35 rushing yards as he displays mobility that Eli Manning was not able to offer this offense. The Lions do not have an elite pass rusher so Jones will benefit from the lack of pressure. The Giants have been a reliable road team as of late as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games against teams with a losing record at home. New York has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. The Giants need to limit turnovers as they have lost the turnover battle in two straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after enduring a -1 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games. And while New York has allowed at least 27 points in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 25 points in three straight contests.

FINAL TAKE: The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 52 of their last 83 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. With this unstable Detroit team beginning to show the signs of fracture, expect a close game from a Giants team that is optimistic about the future with Jones under center. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the New York Giants (251) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Jets (259) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (260). THE SITUATION: New York (1-5) looks to rebound from their embarrassing 33-0 loss at home to New England on Monday Night Football as a 9.5-point underdog. Jacksonville (3-4) comes off a 27-17 win at Cincinnati last Sunday as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JETS PLUS THE POINTS: New York and quarterback Sam Darnold hit rock bottom last week against the outstanding Patriots defense. Darnold was “seeing ghosts” by leading an offense that generated only 154 total yards — and the Jets committed a whopping six turnovers for an insurmountable -5 net turnover margin. But this was also the team that had just defeated Dallas the previous week by a 24-22 score. Darnold had looked like he had turned a corner in his development before last week. Over his last four games last season, Darnold had a Quarterback Rating of 99.1 while throwing six touchdown passes and just one interception. And then in his two starts this season, Darnold had a QBR of 97.6 while completing 69.9% of his passes for 513 yards with three touchdown passes and just one interception before the debacle against the Patriots. I expect a bounce-back effort this afternoon. The Jets have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after playing on Monday Night Football. New York has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Jets have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 15 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Jacksonville may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a double-digit victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit victory on the road. Furthermore, the Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. And while the Jags benefited from a +4 net turnover margin last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after enjoying a +3 or better turnover margin in their last game. Jacksonville generated 460 yards of offense last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. Despite that offensive output, rookie Gardner Minshew is regressing as a quarterback after his fantastic start. Minshew completed 66.7% of his passes with a 105.6 Passer Rating while averaging 255.8 passing YPG with nine touchdown passes and one interception in his first five starts. But over his last two games, Minshew has just a 68.9 Passer Rating while averaging only 209 passing YPG while completing just 47.5% of his passes with one TD pass and an interception. Now this team returns home where they are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Jaguars did suffocate the struggling Bengals rushing attack to just 33 rushing yards last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the New York Jets (259) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (260). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (472) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (471). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-2) returns to the field again after getting embarrassed in London back on October 6th in their 24-21 upset loss to Oakland as a 6.5-point favorite. New Orleans (5-1) has won four games in a row with their 13-6 upset win at Jacksonville as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINTS: Chicago should respond with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. And while the Bears managed only 236 yards of offense, Chicago has then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to generate at least 250 yards in their last game. Chase Daniel was the starting quarterback across the pond but Mitchell Trubisky will be back under center with the additional time to rehab his bum shoulder. Trubisky has struggled this season but I think he will benefit from the time off to regain perspective about his role in the offense. That game with the Raiders flew over the 40 point total — and Chicago has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a game that finished Over the Total. The Bears also get one of their important offensive weapons back in Taylor Gabriel who scored a touchdown in his last game on Monday Night Football before suffering a concussion that has kept him out this month. Chicago returns home where they are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 7 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Chicago has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams from the NFC. New Orleans will be without running back Alvin Kamara who is dealing with an ankle. While Teddy Bridgewater has been solid in relief of the injured Drew Brees, the absence of Kamara leaves this Saints’ offense lacking star power on the offensive side of the football. That is not a good sign when facing this elite Bears defense that is allowing only 13.8 PPG along with just 312.2 total YPG. New Orleans is scoring only 18.3 PPG on the road while averaging just 278.3 total YPG. The Saints outgained the Jaguars by +100 yards last week after winning the yardage battle against Dallas by +205 yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 30 games after outgaining their last two opponents by +100 net yards. And while the Jaguars managed only 75 rushing yards last week, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints’ 5-1 record is accompanied by a mere +4.0 net YPG margin this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the Chicago Bears (472) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (457) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (458). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (4-2) has won two straight games after their 38-20 win over Philadelphia last week as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Detroit (2-2-1) looks to bounce-back from a 23-22 loss at Green Bay on Monday Night Football as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKING MINUS THE POINTS: Don’t be surprised if the Lions are emotionally flat in this game after they feel they were jobbed by the referees on Monday night. This is a losing franchise that has little experience with successfully picking themselves off the mat when facing adversity. That narrow loss came on the heels of their 34-30 loss at home to Kansas City in their previous game before a bye week where everything was focused on the Packers. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after losing two straight games by 6 points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing their last two games where they did cover the point spread in both games. The Lions have met point spread expectations in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in four straight games. Detroit has won the turnover battle in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after having at least a +1 net turnover margin in three straight contests. Now the Lions return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 home games as an underdog getting up to 3 points. They host a Vikings team that has owned them as of late. Minnesota swept the divisional series last season while not allowing Detroit to score more than 9 points in either contest. Matthew Stafford has lost his last three starts against the Vikings with only two touchdown passes in those three contests — and two of those games were at home at Ford Field. Minnesota has seen much better play from their quarterback since wide receiver Adam Thielen called him out publicly for his need to be more aggressive in the passing game. Kirk Cousins has responded with two straight 300-yard passing games with six touchdown passes. He has completed 78.5% of his passes in those games while averaging a healthy 11.4 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Vikings are very tough to beat when they get their offense cranking since their defense has not allowed more than 21 points all season. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. Minnesota has generated 447 and 490 yards over their last two games — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 375 yards in two straight games. The Vikings go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams who are not winning more than 50% of their games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games when playing in a dome. Furthermore, Minnesota has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games as the favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota is 17-8-3 ATS in their last 28 meetings with the Lions — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in Detroit. Look for the Lions to find a way to lose another one. 25* NFC North Game of the Month with the Minnesota Vikings (457) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (273) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (274). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (1-4) looks to rebound from their 26-23 loss in overtime last week at home against Baltimore as a 7.5-point underdog. Los Angeles (2-3) looks to bounce-back from a 20-13 upset loss at home to Denver as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Chargers are overvalued right now with bettors remembering their nice playoff run last season. Injuries have devastated this team. The defense is playing without their best player in safety Derwin James. The offensive line is down two starters with left tackle Russell Okung on the PUP list with his heart issue and now center Mike Pouncey being played on Injured Reserve this week with a neck injury. Los Angeles was outgained by -104 net yards last week to a winless Broncos team. They do have running back Melvin Gordon back — but Austin Ekeler was doing quite fine (or better?) as they lead running back in his absence. Quarterback Philip Rivers may be showing the signs of his age — the Charters offense only generated 246 yards last week. The Chargers have then ailed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. Los Angeles stays at home where they simply do not have much of an advantage playing in a smaller soccer stadium in front of a fan base that is more enamored with the Rams. The Chargers are 1-2 at home this season where they are being outscored by -2.7 PPG and outgained by -18.3 net YPG. Los Angeles is 11-28-1 ATS in their last 40 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Pittsburgh will be relying on Devlin Hodges as their quarterback with Mason Rudolph not yet having cleared the concussion protocol. I first learned about Hodges when handicapping preseason football which requires getting a good grasp on every backup QB. Hodges broke the all-time passing yards record in the FCS last year playing for Samford. He has impressed NFL scouts with his moxie and ability to operate practice squad offenses. The Steelers were so impressed with him from raining camp that they felt comfortable trading away Josh Dobbs despite the possibility that they would need their third-string QB. And Hodges was confident and effective in relief last week as he completed 7 of 9 passes for 68 yards while adding another 20 yards on the ground in leading the offense to a scoring drive and getting his team into overtime. I suspect the Steelers’ coaching staff do not feel they will miss a beat with him under center when compared to Rudolph. And this Pittsburgh franchise still thinks they can make the playoffs with them just two games behind the Ravens. Remember, Indianapolis made the playoffs last year despite a 1-4 start. Pittsburgh has one of the most underrated defenses in the league right now who have forced 12 turnovers since Week Two. The Steelers defense has also given up no more than 139 passing yards in two straight weeks. This organization was very high on what their defense would do this season after they drafted Devin Bush in the first round which provided them speed at the linebacker position that they have lacked since the injury to Ryan Shazier. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss at home. The Steelers are also 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread win. Additionally, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the month of October — and they are a decisive 49-24-2 ATS in their last 75 games in October.

FINAL TAKE: Bet against this Steelers franchise as a road underdog at your own peril. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 63 of their last 104 road games when getting the points — and this includes them covering the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games when getting up to 7 points. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (273) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (266) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (265). Los Angeles (3-2) looks to bounce-back from their 30-29 loss at Seattle as a 1.5-point underdog two Thursdays ago back on October 3rd. San Francisco (4-0) remained one of two undefeated teams this season with their 31-3 win over Cleveland as a 5-point favorite on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles should benefit from the extra time to prepare for this game. Excluding last year’s Super Bowl, head coach Sean McVay has won ten straight games when coaching with extra days to prepare with his offense scoring 37 PPG — and the Rams are 8-1-1 ATS in those ten games. The Rams have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread win. Los Angeles will be without running back Todd Gurley for this game but they have talent behind in Malcolm Brown who starred at Texas along with their rookie Darrell Henderson who was a juggernaut at Memphis. The Rams managed to rush for only 82 yards against the Seahawks — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards. Now they return home where QB Jared Goff usually plays much better than on the road. Los Angeles is scoring 33.5 PPG at home while averaging 449.0 total YPG. The Rams have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Los Angeles has to tighten things up on defense after allowing 429 yards in their last game. 262 of those yards were in the air — but the Rams have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Niners have been anointed to the Super Bowl by many after their dominant performance in primetime on Monday. But San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. The 49ers have also failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after playing on Monday Night Football. San Francisco generated 446 yards of offense in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Additionally, the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than 14 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 34 road games after not allowing more than 9 points in their last contest. This team was already playing with their left tackle Joe Staley — but their vaunted ground game has taken two more big hits for this game with both right tackle Mike McGlinchey and blocking fullback Kyle Juszczyk both out for this game with knee injuries. This is a team that has benefited from an easy early schedule against four teams that have combined for a 4-15 record after the Buccaneers loss this morning. The Niners are just 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams from the NFC West — and Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against NFC West foes. The Rams have a significant experience edge when it comes to playing in high profile games as of late. They should pull away for a comfortable win. 25* NFC West Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Rams (266) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (265). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (275) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (276). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-0) looks to continue their winning ways after their 31-6 win over Miami as a 22-point favorite last week. New Orleans (2-1) comes off a 33-27 upset victory at Seattle as a 5-point favorite.

THE SITUATION: The Cowboys offense amped up in the second half of last season after they acquired wide receiver Amari Cooper from the Raiders as he offered the team the reliable weapon in the passing game that opened things up for running back Ezekiel Elliott. The elevation of Kellen Moore to offensive coordinator has now opened up the playbook to better take advantage of quarterback Dak Prescott’s talents. Prescott has passed for 920 yards in his first three games with nine touchdown passes. The deeper metrics are bullish on Prescott as well. Prescott is second in the NFL by averaging 9.8 Yards-Per-Passing Attempt. He is completing 74.5% of his passes — and his adjusted completion rate of 81.4% is the best in the league. Dallas has scored at least 31 points in all three of their games and they are second in the NFL in Expected Points Added Per Play. Furthermore, with the weapons Prescott has at his disposal in what is now a diverse offense with added pieces like Tony Pollard, Reggie Cobb and the (thankful) return of tight end Jason Witten from the television booth, the Cowboys lead the NFL in 3rd and 4th Down Success Rates. Needless to say, Jerry Jones team is at its best when their offense is humming. Dallas has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 30 points in two straight contests. Furthermore, the Cowboys have generated at least 474 yards of offense in all three of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after gaining at least 400 yards in three straight games. They should build off the momentum of their easy win over the Dolphins as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Dallas is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The defense has also been quite good for this team as they are allowing only 14.6 PPG along with just 336.0 total YPG. The Cowboys defense has registered 20 hits on the quarterback this season which should start producing more than the five sacks they have tallied this year. Additionally, Dallas has not allowed more than a touchdown in the first half all season — and they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 7 points in the first half of two straight games. New Orleans may be due for a letdown after their dominant win on the road in Seattle as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up win. Teddy Bridgewater may have won thirteen of his last nineteen games as a starting quarterback but I think he limits how this Saints offense can operate. He did not attempt a pass of more than 20 yards last week. And with him playing in seven of the team’s twelve quarters this season, New Orleans is just 21st in the league by averaging 339.7 total YPG. But perhaps the more surprising aspect of this Saints team has been the disappointing play of their defense. The Football Outsiders metrics’ ranks New Orleans 28th in the league in Defensive DVOA. They upset the Seahawks last week despite getting outgained by 249 net yards after they surrendered 514 total yards with 450 of those yards coming in the air. New Orleans is 30th in the NFL by allowing 301.7 passing YPG. The Saints have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards. Furthermore, while Seattle averaged 6.76 Yards-Per-Play last week, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 43 home games after allowing at least 6.5 Yards-Per-Play in their last game. The Saints benefitted from a punt return for a touchdown along with a fumble recovered for a touchdown — but special teams and defensive touchdowns are difficult to rely on to overcome massive yardage deficits. This New Orleans team has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against fellow NFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Will hosting this game in the Superdome make the difference for the Saints? They have failed to cover the point spread in their last 5 games at home. Dallas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as the favorite. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (275) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (274) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (273). THE SITUATION: Denver (0-3) is still looking for their first win of the season after they lost in Green Bay last Sunday by a 27-16 score as a 7-point underdog. Jacksonville (1-2) comes off a 20-7 upset victory at home to Tennessee as a 1.5-point underdog back on September 19th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: It is surprising that Denver has not won a game considering that they are outgaining their opponents by +28.0 net YPG. The Broncos controlled the clock for 35:34 minutes last week at Lambeau Field and were only outgained by 2 yards in that 11-point loss. In their lone game at home against Chicago this season, Denver dominated the Bears in yardage by a 372 to 273 margin yet still lost by a 16-14 score. As if these results represent enough of an outlier, the Broncos are doing well in the yardage battle despite not registering a single turnover or a single sack in their first three games this season. Considering they have Von Miller and Bradley Chubb who combined for 26.5 sacks last year along with a defensive guru in first-year head coach Vic Fangio, I am expecting a visit from the Regression Gods in this game for this Denver defense who is still playing well this year. The Broncos are allowing only 22.3 PPG while limiting their opponents to just 314.0 total YPG without the benefit of a turnover nor sack. On offense, Denver is doing a good job of controlling the line of scrimmage behind their one-two punch in their backfield of Royce Freeman and Phillip Lindsay. The Broncos lead the NFL by averaging 7.61 plays per drive — and this remains a reliable formula for success. Expect Fangio to dial up a game plan to make life very difficult for the Jaguars’ rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew. The Titans had a short week to prepare for the former Washington State quarterback last week but the Broncos defensive coaching staff has almost three full games of game tape on him now running the Jacksonville offense with ten days to dissect. Minshew is not mobile — and the Jaguars lack dynamic receivers so do not surprised if the sacks finally start coming in for this Denver defense. Jacksonville upset Tennessee despite being outgained by 38 net yards — they only gained 292 yards of offense with Minshew under center. The Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 road games after a double-digit victory. And while Jacksonville had a 14-0 halftime lead in that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after enjoying a halftime lead of at least two touchdowns. Now this team goes back on the road where they are just 2-5-1 ATS. This team is getting outgained by -27.0 net YPG this year. They also are just 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Run defense has been an issue for this team as they are allowing 109.3 rushing YPG which is just 16th in the NFL — and opposing rushers are averaging 4.0 Yards-Per-Carry while scoring five times this year. To compound matters, star cornerback Jalen Ramsey has been a distraction all week with his litany of excuses that he has deployed to miss practice. He still wants to be traded and his status for this game is questionable.

FINAL TAKE: Jacksonville was the desperate team two Thursdays ago — and they won that home game over the Titans. Now it is Denver who needs the victory — and this is a franchise with its first 0-3 start since 1999. Look for this solid Broncos team to finally earn a win by running the football combining with a dominant defensive performance. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Denver Broncos (274) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (273). Best of luck for us — Frank (and check out his 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month to close his Sunday card).

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (101) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (102). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (1-2) has lost two straight games after their 27-24 upset loss at home to Detroit on Sunday as a 4-point favorite. Green Bay (3-0) remained unbeaten on Sunday with their 27-16 win over Denver as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia will be desperate tonight to not fall to 1-3 this season. They have suffered two straight upset losses — both decided by one scoring possession — after they lost to the Falcons in Atlanta the week before for Sunday Night Football by a 24-20 score where they were laying a 1-point favorite. Injuries have battered this team — they will be without wide receiver DeSean Jackson, defensive tackle Marlin Jackson, linebacker Kamu Grugier-Hill, and cornerback Ronald Darby for this game. Dealing with injuries is not new for head coach Doug Pederson and his coaching staff as the Eagles lost 198.5 adjusted games to injury last season which was the most in the NFL. Yet this Philly roster is one of the deepest in the league — and the quality of their overall roster helped them return to the playoffs last season to avoid becoming the ninth team in the last nineteen seasons to miss the playoffs after winning the Super Bowl the previous season. Philadelphia will be getting wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey back for this game which will help after quarterback Carson Wentz saw seven of his passes dropped last week against the Lions. The Eagles dominated the Lions last week by outgaining them by +86 net yards. Philly has been tough with their run defense this season as they have held their three opponents to just 57 rushing YPG on only 2.9 Yards-Per-Carry. The Eagles have not allowed more than 86 rushing yards in any of their three games — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in at least two straight games. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games away from home with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Additionally, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog. Green Bay benefited from a +3 net turnover margin last week in their win over the Broncos — that made up for them only outgaining the Denver by 2 yards. But the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a point spread win. On the short week, the Eagles have a significant edge with their coaching staff preparing for this game versus the Green Bay rookie head coach Matt LaFleur. Defenses have been adjusting to the Packers in the second half as they have only scored 13 of their 58 points this year in the second half. Green Bay has scored 21 and 17 points in the first half of their last two contests — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 36 games after scoring at least 17 points in the first half of their last two games. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has not yet clicked with the LaFleur’s system as the Packers are scoring only 19.3 PPG while averaging just 286.7 total YPG which is 28th in the league. The Green Bay defense has been a pleasant surprise this season — but they have also had Mitchell Trubisky, Kirk Cousins, and Joe Flacco as their opposing quarterbacks. The Packers are just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games against fellow NFC foes.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has won their four Thursday night games with Pederson as their head coach. The Eagles won three of those games outright as the underdog — and they have covered the point spread in all 4 of those games. Expect a close game with Philly having the chance to pull out this game even in Lambeau Field. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Philadelphia Eagles (101) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (485) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (486). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-2) remained winless this season after their 28-26 upset loss at home to Seattle as a 4-point favorite. San Francisco (2-0) comes off a 41-17 blowout victory at Cincinnati last week as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh was beating the Seahawks before Big Ben Roethlisberger suffered his season-ending elbow injury in that game. Now this organization is in a desperate situation with their franchise quarterback out and with them winless so far this season with a challenging trip out west on deck against an undefeated team. But the reason why we should have confidence that this football team has not thrown in the towel is that they traded valuable draft picks this week for Dolphins’ cornerback Minkah Fitzpatrick who will offer the team an immediate upgrade in their secondary. The Steelers have a 10-6 straight-up record in their last sixteen games played without Roethlisberger — they are essentially a playoff team without him still. This team feels good enough about backup Mason Rudolph running the offense that they traded away their other young backup in Joshua Dobbs after the preseason. Rudolph completed 12 of 19 passes last week against Seattle for 112 yards with two touchdown passes. He will have the benefit of a strong offensive line as well. Look for the Steelers to rally around each other and head coach Mike Tomlin in this moment of adversity — they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 43 games after an upset loss. Pittsburgh has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 road games after failing to cover the point spread in their last two games. Additionally, the Steelers have covered the point spread in a decisive 62 of their last 103 road games as the underdog — and this includes them covering the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as the dog. And while Pittsburgh has allowed 61 points this season, they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after allowing at least 25 points in their last game. San Francisco returns home after a successful two-game road trip out east with wins in Tampa Bay and Cincinnati. But this team has not enjoyed much of a home-field advantage at Levi Stadium where they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 home games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. This is a young team that does not have much of a track record handling success — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games as the favorite. Even without running back Tevin Coleman, the 49ers rushed for 259 yards last week against the Bengals defense — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after rushing for at least 150 yards. Coleman will still be out this week with his ankle injury — but the bigger concern is with the fibula injury to left tackle Joe Staley that will keep him out for the next six to eight weeks. San Fran also has injuries on their defensive line after allowing the Bengals to pass for 291 yards. The Niners have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco is committing too many penalties right now — they are averaging 10 penalties per game which is accounting for 80 Yards-Per-Game. The 49ers may win this game — but this should be a dog fight against a desperate but veteran Steelers team with a winning culture. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (485) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (486). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (464) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (463). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (1-1) looks to bounce-back from a 24-20 upset loss in Atlanta last Sunday night as a 1-point favorite. Detroit (1-0-1) looks to build off a 13-10 upset victory at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Detroit should be 2-0 if not for their 4th quarter collapse in Arizona where they allowed rookie quarterback Kyler Murray to rally his team from a 24-6 4th quarter deficit to eke out a tie. The Lions then upset the Chargers playing in an early 1 PM ET kickoff game despite getting outgained by a 424 to 339 yardage margin. Detroit is likely due for a letdown now as they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after a narrow win at home by no more than a field goal. The Lions have also failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 29 of their last 43 road games after a win by 6 points or less. Detroit has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. The biggest issue with this team is their lack of playmakers on both sides of the football. Quarterback Matthew Stafford remains solid if not spectacular and a bit of a disappointment as a former number one pick in the league. He lacks targets in the passing game that demands a double-team. The Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Detroit’s defense has been built of capable playmakers but none strike fear in an offense. They are just 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. Furthermore, the Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against fellow NFC opponents. Philadelphia will be looking to get back their winning ways after laying an egg in Atlanta. The Eagles are dealing with a host of injuries including their top two wide receivers in DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery are both likely out for this game and defensive tackle Tim Jernigan out for four to six weeks. But this Philly team has one of the deepest rosters in the NFL — particularly on both lines of scrimmage. Quarterback Carson Wentz still has tight end Zack Ertz as well as a deep cadre of running backs. The Eagles enter this game 2nd in the NFL in 3rd down offense. And while they surrendered 310 passing yards last week to the Falcons, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 250 passing yards in their last game. Philly did hold the Falcons to just 58 rushing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Eagles have held their first two opponents to just 42 rushing YPG which is third-best in the NFL. Detroit has become a run-first offense under head coach Matt Patricia with Stafford becoming more of a game-manager. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. And don’t underestimate the value of the inside knowledge defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz possesses on Stafford after serving as his first head coach in his tour of duty as the Lions head coach from 2009 to 2013.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips to Philadelphia. The Eagles would likely be laying at least a touchdown if not for their injuries. While I don’t love the fact that they did not scrimmage in pads on Wednesday, the effect of that is probably overvalued. The Philadelphia depth along with their edges in coaching should lead them to a relatively easy victory. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the Philadelphia Eagles (464) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (463). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (276) minus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (275). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 33-3 loss at New England last Sunday night as a 5.5-point underdog. Seattle (1-0) looks to build off their 21-20 win at home over Cincinnati as a 9.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh should respond with a strong effort after being embarrassed on national television. The Steelers have won eight of their nine games in the Ben Roethlisberger era straight-up after enduring a loss by at least 20 points. That number does not take into account the point spread — but it does point to the resolve this team should have this afternoon under his leadership. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a loss by at least 21 points — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road by at least three touchdowns. I just think they got caught by a good team with a great defense — and playing in Foxboro did not help matters as that is a place where they have always struggled in the Roethlisberger and head coach Mike Tomlin era. The Steelers have a good defense that should take the next step this season after they drafted linebacker Devin Bush out of Michigan who gives them the speed in the middle of the field that they have lacked since the career-ending injury to Ryan Shazier. Pittsburgh allowed the Patriots to generate 465 yards last week with a 7.01 Yards-Per-Play clip — but they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 7.0 YPP. The Steelers have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. There is a concern that JuJu Smith-Shuster does not have the skills to take over the number one receiving job for the departed Antonio Brown. I think he will be fine — especially when Pittsburgh gets their rushing attack going. The Steelers only ran the ball 13 times last week for a meager 32 rushing yards. Look for Pittsburgh to get back to running the football behind their big offensive line — they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for at least 50 yards. This remains a team that has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. The Steelers have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams from the NFC. Seattle faces a situational challenge having to fly to the east coast to play in the 1 PM ET window of games. Head coach Pete Carroll has done a good job of preparing his team for the body clock issues of these early Sunday games out east. However, the Seahawks have been poor starters under Carroll when it comes to meeting point spread expectations in the early part of the season. Seattle is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games in the month of September — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games in the second week of the season. Furthermore, the Seahawks have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 road games in the month of September. They were fortunate to escape last Sunday with a victory considering that they were outgained by a 429 to 233 yardage margin. Cincinnati dominated the Time of Possession — an aspect of the game that Carroll finds very important — as they held the ball for almost 36 minutes of that game. Seattle was able to survive given a +2 net turnover margin — yet they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after enjoying at least a +2 net turnover margin in their last game. It is not a good sign for the Seahawks defense that they allowed Andy Dalton to shred them apart for 418 passing yards with him averaging 8.2 Yards-Per-Passing-Attempt even without an injured A.J. Green at wide receiver. Dalton had a Passer Rating of 143.9 when targeting Seahawks cornerback Tre Flowers — expect James Washington or Donte Moncrief to have a big game this afternoon depending on who Seattle elects Flowers to cover (I doubt they will have him assigned to Shuster). Seattle is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games gains teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Seahawks are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Pittsburgh to play the Steelers. Despite their 10-6 record last year, they were a team that did not outgain their opponents in total yardage last year as they averaged 353.3 total YPG while allowing the same number. Look for an angry Pittsburgh team to take out their frustrations against the traveling Seahawks. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (276) minus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Oakland Raiders (482) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (481). THE SITUATION: Oakland (0-0) looks to improve from their 4-12 campaign last season. Denver (0-0) also looks to better themselves this year after suffering a 6-10 record last season.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: It should be an energetic environment in the Coliseum in what will be the last home opener for these fans before the franchise relocates to Las Vegas. Oakland is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 appearances on Monday Night Football. This should be an improved football team in the second year under head coach Jon Gruden with groups usually making a big jump in Year Two under new systems. I also expect this group of players to rally around each other to play inspired football in the wake of the Antonio Brown debacle. It is hard to call his departure to New England to be a big loss since he never really practiced with the team in the preseason. Tyrell Williams was a nice pickup from the Los Angeles Chargers which upgrades the wide receiver corps from last season and tight end Darren Waller looks poised to enjoy a breakout season after a strong training camp. But I expect the gem in this offense to be rookie running back Josh Jacobs who was sensational for Alabama in what was often a reserved role under head coach Nick Saban. Look for Gruden to fully unleash Jacobs now. The Raiders have also covered the point spread in 3 of the last 4 games in the opening two weeks of a new season. Denver is just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in the month of September. The Broncos should improve under new head coach Vic Fangio who has finally received a chance to be a head coach. Fangio is one of the best defensive coaches in the business but it often takes a year for his players to fully embrace his complex schemes. The offense is also undergoing a system change with first-year offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello installing a run/play-action based attack. But the former 49ers’ quarterback coach’s highest experience of calling plays was at the FCS level so there may be some growing pains early on as he gets comfortable with new quarterback Joe Flacco. The hope of team president John Elway is that Flacco will offer the veteran leadership under center that he once did for this franchise which was then replicated with Peyton Manning leading the team a third Super Bowl championship. But Flacco has seen is adjusted net yards per passing attempt decline in each of his last four seasons which raises concerns that the 34-year old has seen a decline in his skills. His lack of mobility in the pocket is also at odds with where many offenses are moving in the modern NFL. Flacco will be working under a retooled offensive line that is replacing 36 starts from last year’s group. The hope is that offensive line coach Mike Munchak will coach this group up — but there are questions regarding the talent level of this unit with left tackle Garrett Bolles being a disappointment in his first two seasons and second-year center Connor McGovern coming off a disappointing rookie season. These are all troubling issues for a team that failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games on the road. Denver also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams from the AFC West — and they are just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 appearances on Monday Night Football. Additionally, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when not laying more than 3 points.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 meetings with Oakland. With the Raiders motivated by the home crowd and to prove themselves with the Brown drama behind them, look for this team to play inspired football tonight. 25* AFC West Game of the Month with the Oakland Raiders (482) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (481). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (475) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (476). THE SITUATION: New York (0-0) enters the new season looking to improve on a 5-11 campaign last year. Dallas (0-0) has Super Bowl expectations after a 10-6 regular season before losing in Los Angeles to the Rams in the NFC Divisional round of the playoffs by a 30-22 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Cowboys have the swagger of a team that believes they will pick right up where they left off after losing on the road to the eventual NFC representative in the Super Bowl in the Rams. But teams that treat Week One of the new season as just the carryover of the previous week of last year tend to get bit — Chicago was the latest example of this phenomenon on Thursday night when they were upset at home against a divisional rival in the Packers. As it is, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opening weeks to a new season. This is a new that has some kinks to still work out with a new offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore. Running back Ezekiel Elliott is back with the team this week after being given his new contract despite two years remaining on his deal. But not only will he have some game rust but there has not been much practice time for him to get back into synch with QB Dak Prescott and the rest of this offense. Elliott will likely get 20 to 25 touches in this game. The Cowboys host this contest but they have only failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Dallas defense is a concern as well entering the new season. They entered that playoff game with the Rams having allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 65.1% of their passes since Week 13 with those QBs averaging 7.4 Yards-Per-Pass Attempt along with seven touchdown passes to just one interception. They also had registered just five sacks in their previous five games before failing to sack Jared Goff even once in that loss. The Cowboys run defense then allowed the Rams (even with an injured Todd Gurley) to rush for 273 yards on 48 carries for a robust 5.69 Yards-Per-Carry average. Here comes Saquon Barkley who was the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year by rushing for 1307 yards while averaging 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry. While it would be foolish to read too much into preseason numbers, I am not ignoring how efficient the Giants’ offense was in the preseason with all four of their quarterbacks under center in the second year under offensive coordinator Mike Shula. New York led all teams in the preseason with nine touchdowns and 119 total points while averaging 305.5 passing YPG and 393 total YPG. Shula’s schemes were working — I do not expect this offense to suffer from the sluggishness that we saw on Thursday from both the Packers and the Bears after their offensive starters did not play much in the preseason. QB Eli Manning got plenty of reps in August after playing in the first three preseason games. While the hype around rookie Daniel Jones intensified, what has continued to go under the radar is the fine season Manning enjoyed last year where he completed 66% of his passes for 4299 passing yards with 21 touchdown passes and just 11 interceptions in what was one of the best statistical seasons of his career. Golden Tate will not be available in this game given his PED suspension for the first four regular-season games but Sterling Shepard is listed as probable despite his thumb injury — and tight end Evan Engram is poised for a breakout season in his third year in the league. The defense should be much improved with the additions of Jabrill Peppers (in the Odell Beckham trade) along with the drafting of Clemson’s massive defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence and Georgia cover cornerback Deandre Baker in the first round of the NFL draft. New York has covered the point spread in 7 straight games on the road. The Giants have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games getting 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: New York has certainly had this opening game circled after getting swept by the Cowboys last year. The Giants played in twelve games last year decided by one scoring possession — and they lost eight of those contests for a -4 net close loss number. They should be very competitive in this contest (and don’t be shocked if they follow Green Bay’s lead and pull off the road upset against a divisional rival coming off a playoff run — but still take the points for some insurance). 25* NFL NFC East Game of the Month with the New York Giants (475) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (101) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (102). THE SITUATION: New England (13-5) has reached the Super Bowl for the third straight year along with fourth time in the last five seasons with their 37-31 win in overtime at Kansas City as a 3-point underdog. Los Angeles (15-3) earned the right to play them with their 26-23 upset win in overtime in New Orleans as a 3-point underdog. Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta will host Super Bowl LIII.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS POINTS: The Rams were one of the top two betting favorites to win the Super Bowl before the season started but I always considered them overrated. Playoff wins over a Cowboys team that finished 3-6 on the road while scoring 17.4 PPG in those contests and then the controversial way they won in New Orleans in the NFC Championship Game did little to change this initial opinion. The travesty non-call on wide receiver Tommylee Lewis likely cost the Saints the game — and that call obscured another bad non-call penalty interference on Ted Ginn on the previous drive that probably sets up another New Orleans scoring drive. Admittedly, the officials missed a face mask call on Jared Goff in their game-tying drive that ended in a field goal — but the terrible officiating did more to keep the Rams in the game, all things considered. This represents the signature victory for Los Angeles this season — yet it lacks any definitive statement moving forward given the shaky circumstances from which they escaped with the win. The Rams defeated a still-improving Chargers team earlier in the season before beating Kansas City at home who proved to be a team that simply could not stop any quality offense. I had concerns over whether the Rams’ collections of free agent splurges could come together to form a cohesive unit given the history of Dan Snyder’s teams in Washington and the so-called “dream team” of the 2011 Philadelphia Eagles. I have never loved the collection of egos that were assembled with this team — and the two weeks of Super Bowl hype is not the best way for hired guns to mentally prepare for a game of this magnitude. And given that this franchise is facing a salary cap crunch in the offseason, there is tremendous pressure on this team to take advantage of this moment. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games in expected close games where they were listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Patriots have a substantial advantage at quarterback given the experience of Tom Brady versus a Jared Goff playing in just his fourth playoff game. Goff was exposed late in the season when made uncomfortable against the Bears and Eagles in a game plan that Bill Belichick will have completely mastered. While Goff made some great plays in the second-half against the Saints, this is still a quarterback who did not play nearly as well on the road and who clearly missed his security blanket in wide receiver Cooper Kupp who suffered a season-ending injury midseason. The weakness of the Rams’ defense has always been their linebackers after they traded Robert Quinn and Alec Ogletree in the offseason to clear cap room space. That left that group thin on the edge which has been compounded by the decline of inside linebacker Mark Barron whose past Achilles’ injury has seen his speed and athleticism dwindle to subpar levels. Los Angeles is second-to-last in the NFL by allowing 8.8 Yards-Per-Attempt from play-action passes. Brady is going to pick apart this Rams’ defense in the middle of the field with his assortment of weapons that feasts on mismatches like this. Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips has been stubborn with his cornerback positioning by keeping Talib Aqib on the left side of the field which allowed opponents to exploit Marcus Peters. LA ranked 2nd in the NFL in pass defense on Aqib’s side of the field when he was healthy while ranking 24th in the league on Peters’ left side — and these vulnerabilities are exactly the things that Brady will have a field day exploiting. This is an opportunity for New England to redeem themselves from last year’s loss in the Super Bowl. While the final score indicated that the Eagles won by 8 points, remember that the Patriots had a 33-32 lead with under 3 minutes to go before letting that game slip away. Brady was sensational in that game against a defense better than this Rams’ unit — he completed 28 of 48 passes for 505 yards with three touchdowns all without the services of the injured Julian Edelman. Brady’s offensive support is better this time around with a healthy Edelman and an improved offensive line. Brady was not sacked in 90 passing attempts in this year’s playoffs. And don’t underestimate the positive impact of rookie running back Sony Michel who has given the Patriots their most talented running back in years. Finally, I just find the playoff experience that this New England team enjoys to offer this franchise a decisive edge. This is Brady and Belichick’s ninth Super Bowl appearance in eighteen seasons. Belichick’s assistants have been with him for years as well: offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has been with New England for fifteen of Belichick’s nineteen seasons there; offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia has been with them for seventeen of Belichick’s nineteen seasons; running backs coach Ivan Fears has been there for all nineteen seasons. From the two weeks of preparation and planning for the Super Bowl to the management of the game, the Patriots simply have a huge edge. While Sean McVay is the wunderkind of the league now, his reputation was saved by the bad non-call late in the game against the Saints that pushed to the background his bad decision to not go for the touchdown earlier in the 4th quarter when he elected to kick a tying field goal. Rams’ backers for this game mention things like the “value” they offer as a small underdog. I think those are sentiments that are rationalizing hype from the preseason. Let’s also remember that New England has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games against teams with a winning record while also covering the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games in the playoffs.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams opened as a 1.5-point favorite but were quickly bet down to a 1-point underdog to the Patriots. Since that time, New England has been bet up to 2.5 to 3-point favorites as of a week before the game. This line movement is consistent with how I initially handicapped this matchup. I did consider a contrarian angle regarding the Rams being pushed by the commentary that New Orleans was robbed by the referees but I quickly dismissed it. I don’t think the Rams need any more bulletin board material for them to get motivated to win a championship. Besides, the referee's storyline from last week will be old news by kick off for this game. The Patriots traveled to Arrowhead Stadium and outgained Kansas City by a decisive 524 to 290 margin. With the edges in coaching, quarterback, and playoff experience (after losing last year’s Super Bowl that I saw as basically a coin flip or two away from them winning), New England is the strong play. 25* NFL Super Bowl A-List Special with the New England Patriots (101) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (102). Best of luck for us — Frank. For those interested in Super Bowl Props, I will have my Betting Card for a Best Bet, Top Overlay Bet (offering the best value relative to the odds), and my top Long Shot Bet by Saturday (2/2) with it attached as a Free Bonus to a Saturday (and Sunday) College Basketball play.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (314) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (313). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (13-4) has won their last two games after their 31-13 win over Indianapolis last Sunday as a 4-point favorite. New England (12-5) reached the AFC Championship Game last Sunday with their 41-28 win at home over the LA Chargers as a 3.5-point favorite.  This is a rematch of the Patriots’ 43-40 win against the Chiefs in Foxboro back on October 14th as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: I would have raced to make a call on this game earlier in the week, I might have endorsed the Patriots. With the weather projections being of an Arctic Blast that would see wind chill temperatures well below zero degrees, I needed to strongly consider that Tom Brady’s experience with below-freezing weather could be overwhelming for Patrick Mahomes and the high-precision Kansas City offense to overcome. But the 48-hour projection is for highs to be in the low-30s with game-time temperatures expected to stay in the 20s. It will be difficult for the Patriots to come close to replicate the near-perfect game they played against the Chargers last Sunday. It certainly helped that Los Angeles was traveling east for the second straight week to play in an earlier 1 PM ET kickoff with that being their third straight game on the road. The Chargers only flew in the day before — so their travel management did themselves no favors to get ready for that showdown. But now the Patriots go on the road where they have not won a playoff game since 2007. New England was a perfect 9-0 at home this season where they scored 33.8 PPG — but the Patriots were just 3-5 on the road with an average losing margin of -2.4 PPG. New England only scores 21.6 PPG while allowing their home hosts to average 399.0 total YPG The DVOA defensive ranking by the analytics folks at Football Outsiders ranks the Patriots as the second worst defensive unit on the road this season. New England has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 opportunities to play in the AFC Conference Championship Game. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. And while the Chiefs have covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in two straight contests. Mahomes was more than capable playing in temperatures in the 20s against the Colts by completing 27 of 41 passes for 278 yards while leading the offense to 433 yards (which was above their league-leading yardage average). Kansas City is now 8-1 at home with an average winning margin of +14.8 PPG. The Chiefs have scored at least 26 points in every game this season — but it is the play of their defense that home has them so tough to beat in Arrowhead Stadium. While KC allows 34.3 PPG on the road, that number plummets to just 17.4 PPG at home which is tied for the third-best mark in the NFL. The noise of the home crowd certainly helps to disrupt opposing offenses snap counts and the ability of opposing quarterbacks to call audibles at the line of scrimmage. The Chiefs’ pass rush thrives at home as well — they lead the NFL with 34 sacks at home and a pressure rate of 36.9% as compared to their 25.9% pressure rate on quarterbacks on the road which ranks only 26th in the league. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: While the Chiefs defense plays much better when playing at home when they are bolstered by the crowd noise, Kansas City’s formula for success still requires their offense to outperform what Brady can do with the Patriots’ offense. While the cold is not ideal for Mahomes, the prospect of temperatures below 10 degrees would have been a much more difficult challenge. This year’s Patriots’ team has not been nearly as good when playing away from Foxboro. 25* NFL Sunday Night Special Feature with the Kansas City Chiefs (314) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (313). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (312) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (311). New Orleans (14-3) reached the NFC Conference Championship Game with their 20-14 win over Philadelphia last Sunday as an 8.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (14-3) has won three straight games with their 30-22 win over Dallas as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday. This is a rematch of the Saints’ 45-35 win in New Orleans as a 2.5-point underdog back on November 4th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS: New Orleans showed resiliency to pull out that game last week despite falling behind 14-0 in the first-quarter. The Saints surrendered 150 yards in the opening quarter to the reigning Super Bowl Champions before clamping down to limit the Eagles offense to only 100 more yards of offense. The officials certainly did New Orleans few favors as they were pretty whistle-happy in calling holding penalties on their offensive line — yet Drew Brees and this team could not be denied winning this game on their home field. Remember, the Saints cover the point spread if they hit a late field goal attempt. They out-gained Philly by a 420 to 250 yards margin. They also took the lead and seized control of this game with an eighteen play drive in the 3rd quarter that ate over 11 minutes of time off the clock while overcame 25 yards in penalties to result in a touchdown that started on their 8-yard line. Those efforts are good signs for New Orleans today as they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after out-gaining their last opponent by at least +100 yards. And while the Saints have not covered the point spread in four straight contests, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least two straight games. Much has been said this week about the “struggling” Saints offense that has scored only 19 PPG over their last six games. Some caveats should be offered when presenting that statistic — most notably, that the offense was missing their top offensive lineman in Terron Armstead to close out the the regular season before getting him back on the field last week. Furthermore, we can throw out the meaningless Week 17 game against Carolina while remembering two of those games were on the road against two good defenses with Carolina and Dallas. New Orleans did put up 31 points at home in an important win over the Steelers during this final stretch that never seems to get mentioned. The Saints score 32.6 PPG at home this season — and the 420 yards they generated last week were higher than their 402.9 YPG season average in the Superdome. Brees completes 75.9% of his passes in the dome while averaging 9.31 Yards-Per-Attempt with an incredible 23 touchdown passes to just 2 interceptions. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 25 of their last 32 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The defense should get some of the credit for the drop in the Saints’ scoring numbers, as well, since head coach Sean Payton does not have to game plan to reach 30 points to have a chance to win. Throw out that Week 17 game with the Panthers and the Saints have allowed just 14.5 PPG over their last eight contests while holding seven of those opponents to under 17 points. Los Angeles has won and covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning three in a row. That victory over the Cowboys was against a team that finished just 3-6 on the road while averaging only 17.9 PPG in those contests. The Rams have morphed into a rushing team to close out the season — they have rushed for at least 155 yards in three straight games. But while LA has scored at least 30 points in three straight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 30 points in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in three straight contests. Of course, one of the reasons why head coach Sean McVay has decided to run the ball more is to hide quarterback Jared Goff who was exposed in a two-game stretch against the Bears and Eagles. Goff struggles against teams with good pass rushes — he ranks 28th in the league in Passer Rating when facing pressure and gets off the McVay script. The Saints' defense rank 5th in the NFL when playing at home in both sacks and QB Pressures. Goff has thrown for more than 220 yards only once in his last six games. Goff clearly misses wide receiver Cooper Cupp who was his security blanket. In his six career starts without Cupp, Goff sees his passing YPG drop by 22.6 yards while his Yards-Per-Attempt drops a whopping 1.3 YPA. Goff also is a much better passer at home where he averages 8.8 YPA with a 22:3 TD-to-interception ratio — but those numbers plummet to just 7.56 YPA with a middling 10:9 touchdown-to-interception ratio when he is playing on the road. Those are ominous numbers for this young quarterback now playing in one of the loudest football stadiums in the NFL. Goff may be required to win this game with his arm considering this Saints’ defense is outstanding against the run. New Orleans is second in the NFL by allowing just 80.2 rushing YPG — and they rank 3rd in the league by limiting opposing rushers to just 3.98 Yards-Per-Carry. This is an expected higher-scoring game with the Total set in the high-50s — but the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. And while LA has revenge on their minds from the first meeting, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when attempting to avenge a same-season upset loss as a road favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints are very reliable in expected close games as they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. This is their fourth straight game at home as well so they hold a big situational edge which afforded them the opportunity to coast out the close of the regular season. New Orleans will miss defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins who suffered a season-ending knee injury last week — but he was often double-team which put the onus on his teammates to make plays. With their playoff experience and the better quarterback, look for the Saints to seize this moment and play their best game since peaking with that 48-7 win over the Eagles in mid-November. 25* NFL Game of the Year with the New Orleans Saints (312) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (308) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (307). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (13-3) closed out their regular season with a 33-14 upset loss to Carolina as an 8-point favorite. Philadelphia (10-7) has won four straight games with Nick Foles under center after their 16-15 upset win at Chicago last Sunday as a 6.5-point underdog. This is a rematch of the Week Eleven meeting between these two teams back on November 18th where the Saints destroyed the Eagles in the Superdome by a 48-7 score.

REASONS TO TAKE NEW ORLEANS MINUS THE POINTS: If I am going to play-against a team with a chip on their shoulder looking to avenge a 41-point same-season loss — with the point spread value that often creates in the betting market — I am going to very comfortable with that decision. I am. We can’t be zombies in these situations — especially because appealing betting situations often run into conflict other reliable betting situations pointing to the other side. Playoff teams looking to avenge a loss of at least 30 points in the regular season have lost nine of those fourteen showdowns. I never researched the against-the-spread numbers on those — but seeing five outright wins is certainly not an argument against the Eagles. Frankly, I just assumed the worst about how these avenging dogs generally do in these playoff situations. But that the personality of this Philly team goes the other way as they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games when avenging a loss on the road by at least two touchdowns. I also am not going to haphazardly bet against any team that has pulled off four straight upset victories in the playoffs while winning five of their last six games outright when getting the points. I was on the wrong side of too many of those playoff upset victories. But each new situation is unique — and I hate the circumstances this Eagles team faces entering this game. This is Philly’s third straight game on the road — and it is their fifth game in their last six contests away from home. And let’s remember that despite all the Foles magic, this is a team that needed a missed game-ending field goal to escape Chicago with that win. They were out-gained by the Bears by 56 net yards after gaining just 300 yards in that game. Philly is going to struggle to run the football this afternoon as they have averaged just 3.23 Yards-Per-Carry since Foles took over at quarterback. They now face a stout Saints’ run defense that is second in the NFL by allowing just 80.2 rushing YPG and third best in the league using the advanced metrics by Football Outsiders. New Orleans allows opposing rushers to average just 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry when playing at home. Making the Eagles one-dimensional was one of the keys to their blowout victory in November. Furthermore, the Philadelphia defense has been decimated with injuries — and while the three new defensive backs that were exposed in the first meeting between these two teams have developed, that does not change the fact these remains NFL-level backup players with size and/or speed deficiencies now facing Drew Brees. Four of the last five opponents that the Eagles have faced have generated at least 300 passing yards. Brees will be facing a defense that has allowed their last four of their last five opposing quarterbacks to average 11.6 Yards-Per-Attempt while throwing five touchdown passes of over 20 yards in the air. Brees has an impeccable 128.6 Passer Rating of passes of at least 20 yards in the air this season. Philadelphia has simply been exposed by good offenses. In their six games against playoff teams during the regular season, the Eagles surrendered 28.8 PPG with that number rising to a 33.3 PPG mark when playing on the road as compared to the 17.5 PPG they held their twelve opponents who did not make the playoffs with that mark actually falling to 16.8 PPG surrendered when playing non-playoff teams on the road. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards. And don’t underestimate the problem playing on the faster field turf in the Superdome presents to this Philly team as it will exacerbate the speed issues they have with their backup in their secondary. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games played on field turf. Saints’ head coach Sean Payton had the luxury of resting most of his key starters in that loss to the Panthers that should be ignored when handicapping this game. The New Orleans starters have essentially has had three weeks off to get rested and ready for the playoffs. This team is getting healthy again with the biggest boost being with the return of left tackle Terron Armstead whose shoulder injury played a big role in Brees’ mini-slump late in the season. The Saints’ offense is a machine when they are playing at home — they average 34.1 PPG while putting up over 400 yards of offense this season. Brees has an impeccable 21:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio when playing at home while averaging 9.54 Yards-Per-Attempt as compared to his 11:4 ratio and 6.88 YPA marks on the road. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 25 of the last 31 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Saints defense has also been underappreciated down the stretch of the season. Take out the meaningless Carolina game in Week 17 and New Orleans has held their last seven opponents to just 14.6 PPG while ranking 5th in the NFL with 49 sacks and 101 quarterback hits over that span. This team under Payton has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the month of January.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles were my Best Bet to win the Super Bowl back in August — so I really appreciate what Doug Pederson has done with this franchise. Too many injuries, too many road games, too many hurdles to overcome — and now they run into a rested, tanned and ready Saints bulldozer of a team at home. 25* NFC Divisional Playoff Game of the Year with the New Orleans Saints (308) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (306) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (305). THE SITUATION: New England (11-5) has won two straight games to close out the regular season with their 38-3 win over the New York Jets as a 14.5-point favorite two weeks ago. Los Angeles (13-4) has won six of their last seven games with their 23-17 upset win at Baltimore last week as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: I like this Chargers team behind Philip Rivers — they have made us a lot of money this season. However, this is just too challenging of circumstances. It is just brutal to ask this west coast team to travel east for the second straight week to play in an early 1 PM ET contest. Los Angeles will have traveled over 10,000 miles over their three-game road trip since Week 17 of the regular season — now they have to play in cold weather with temperatures projected to be in the 20s. It is so hard for the best of teams to play close to their maximum ability with these sets of obstacles. As it is, the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game on the road — and they have failed to cover there point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a victory on the road. Furthermore, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset victory. And while the Chargers defense held the Ravens to just 229 yards of offense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in each of their last two games. Rivers has seen his production decline as of late — he only has one touchdown pass in his last three games. Over that span, the Chargers are scoring just 18.7 PPG over these last three games while average just 239.0 total YPG. Rivers has averaged just 153.7 passing YPG in those last three games with a Passer Rating of only 55.2. In this team’s first fourteen games, they averaged 28.2 PPG along with 392.0 total YPG with Rivers averaging 270.1 passing YPG and posting a 112.4 Passer Rating. Maybe Rivers is fatiguing? These are simply far from ideal conditions for a veteran quarterback who has a career 1-8 mark against the Patriots. In his last four starts against a Bill Belichick defense, Rivers has led his team to only 17.0 PPG. And to compound matters even more, he is facing a New England defense that leads the NFL by playing man-to-man in 57% of their defensive snaps. All-Pro cornerback Stephon Gilmore may be enjoying his best season — he has allowed the second fewest yards after catch this year. He will make things very difficult for wide receiver Keenan Allen. And Rivers averages 7.99 Yards-Per-Attempt against man-to-man coverage this season as compared to his 9.55 YPP mark against zone defenses. New England has allowed only 32 combined points over their last three games. This Patriots team is very tough to beat when the defense is playing well. They have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 22 games after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than 17 points in three straight contests. The New England defense is very stingy at home as they hold their guests to just 16.6 PPG along with a mere 319.5 total YPG. While we are witnesses the inevitable deterioration of Tom Brady’s skills — this remains a Patriots team was unbeaten at home this year with a +16.3 net point differential in those games. But the Patriots offense still cranks it up when playing in Foxboro as they average 32.9 PPG along with 430.6 total YPG. New England is 15-6-2 ATS in their last 23 home games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games when favored by no more than 7 points. The Patriots have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 playoff games at home.

FINAL TAKE: Playing the physical Ravens team on both sides of the ball in two of their last three games may be yet another under- appreciated concern for this Chargers team. They now face the gauntlet of this New England team that has won eleven of their last twelve home playoff games in the AFC Divisional playoffs. 25* AFC Playoff Game of the Year with the New England Patriots (306) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (102) minus the point(s) versus the Indianapolis Colts (101). THE SITUATION: Houston (11-5) has won two of their last three games after their 20-3 win over Jacksonville as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. Indianapolis (10-6) has won four straight games after they defeated the Titans in Tennessee last Sunday night to clinch the final wildcard spot in the AFC. These two teams will be meeting for the third time: the Texans won the first matchup on September 30th by a 37-34 score as a 1-point favorite before the Colts won the rematch on December 9th by a 24-21 upset score despite being a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE HOUSTON MINUS THE POINT(S): This is a tough spot for Indianapolis who stay on the road for the second straight week in a must-win situation. It might be difficult for the Colts to maintain the intensity they needed to bring last Sunday night to defeat the Titans in Nashville. As it is, Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they are just 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Colts rushed for 158 yards in that game as this has become a team that likes to run the ball to establish their offense. But getting their ground game going will be difficult against this Texans defense that ranks 3rd in the NFL by allowing just 82.7 rushing YPG. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in three of their last four games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after covering three of their last four contests. Quarterback Andrew Luck is having a great comeback season but he is leading a team that is just 4-4 on the road this season while scoring 24.2 PPG and averaging 369.4 total YPG — and those numbers are -2.9 PPG and -16.8 YPG below their overall season averages. The Colts have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games as an underdog getting no more than 3 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games on the road. Houston has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win. The team is getting relatively healthy for this game with running back Lamar Miller returning to the field last week while rookie slot receiver Keke Coutee (who caught 10 passes in the first encounter with the Colts this year) looks set to finally play again after missing significant time with his hamstring. One of the reasons I give the Texans the edge in this game is they have more established star talent. This is the first season that head coach Bill O’Brien has had the services of defensive ends J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney for the entire season along with linebacker Whitney Mercilus healthy and playing together. I expect defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel will dial up a good scheme in his third opportunity to slow down Luck on offense. Houston also has DeAndre Hopkins who might have enjoyed the best season of all the wide receivers in the NFL simply because he catches everything thrown his way. Second-year DeShaun Watson is also a dynamic player who can match Luck on the field. Home field advantage certainly plays a role in this game as the Texans are 6-2 at home with an average winning margin of +8.9 PPG — and they out-gain their opponents by +52.2 net YPG. Houston’s defense flexes their muscles at home where they hold their visitors to just 17.0 PPG along with only 327.2 YPG. The Texans have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 home games as a favorite laying no more than 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Houston has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 40 opportunities to avenge a loss when playing on their home field. While Watson lacks the playoff experience of Luck, the core of this Texans team got playoff experience after winning two straight AFC South titles before injuries derailed their campaign last year. Expect home field advantage to make the difference between these two teams. 25* AFC South Game of the Month with the Houston Texans (102) minus the point(s) versus the Indianapolis Colts (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (322) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (321). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (9-6) has won four straight games with their 25-16 win over Washington last Saturday where they failed to cover the -11.5-point spread they were laying as the favorite. Indianapolis (9-6) has won three straight games as well as eight of their last nine contests with their 28-27 win over the Giants as a 10-point favorite. This is a de-facto playoff game for both teams: the victor wins the AFC South title and plays next week in the AFC playoffs while the winner goes home.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: It certainly is tempting to take Andrew Luck with the Colts in this game as he offers a significant edge at the quarterback position over Blaine Gabbert who was named the starter this afternoon after Marcus Mariota was officially ruled out with his stinger injury. This situation is a perfect example why it is often prudent to wait on the decision to invest in certain situations. And after the news of Gabbert being the quarterback, I had to get in the trenches with research to block my natural inclination to want to bet-against this quarterback that has failed to meet his prior expectations. All the while, I have watched most of the betting world take the Colts in this game — and that has compelled me to believe that it looks awfully easy to take that side of the equation right now. Well, let’s not forget that it is this Tennessee team that has the playoff team — and it is this Titans team with the better defense that will also have the benefit of home field and an energetic crowd for this nationally-televised night game. Tennessee is second in the NFL by allowing only 18.0 PPG — and that number drops to just 16.9 PPG when they are playing at home. The Titans have held their last three opponents to a mere 8.0 PPG while limiting them to just 269.0 total YPG. The 16 points that Washington scored last week was the most that this defense has allowed in three straight games. They limited the Skins to just 131 passing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Admittedly, this Tennessee defense is dealing with some tough injuries with defensive lineman Jurrell Casey, cornerback Logan Ryan and linebacker Brian Orakpo all out for this game. With everything at stake, head coach Mike Vrabel will be preaching the “next man up” — and it helps that this team is playing at home with these subs being energized by the crowd. The Titans are 6-1 at home this year with an average winning margin of +6.1 PPG. Tennessee is 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 home games as an underdog. The Titans have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of December. And in their last 9 games against fellow AFC South opponents, Tennessee has covered the point spread in 7 of these games. This team is further motivated to avenge their ugly 38-10 loss at Indianapolis back on November 18th. The embarrassment of that loss should ensure this team is primed and ready for this game. The Titans have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when avenging a loss where their opponent allowed at least 35 points — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with revenge from a loss by at least four touchdowns. Going full circle back to Gabbert, the fact is that he has been a capable professional quarterback since leaving the team that drafted him in Jacksonville. Gabbert completed 11 of 16 passes in relief in that game last month with the Colts albeit in garbage time. Gabbert has won his two starts for this team this season when playing for Mariota. He has completed 18 of 27 passes over his last two appearances for 219 yards for a nice 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt average while completing 67% of those passes. He has two TD passes and only one interception in those games. He is capable — but perhaps his presence on the field will ensure that Tennessee commits to pounding the football. Running back Derrick Henry is in the zone right now with 492 rushing yards in his last three games. A decision to use heavy personnel with Henry leading the way can exploit the Colts’ Tampa-2 defense which is a scheme that is vulnerable to teams that decide to run the ball since the onus becomes so important on the weak side linebacker to be the primary help in stopping the rushing attack — and that is rookie Darius Leonard who has played very well this season but it is not quite Derrick Brooks or Lance Briggs at that position. Indianapolis is just 6-13-2 ATS in their last 21 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win at home. Furthermore, the Colts have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games coming off a game where both teams scored at least 24 points. Luck passed for 357 yards last week while leading an offense that gained 402 yards. But Indy has then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after passing for at least 300 yards — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. The Colts have been much better at home in Lucas Oil Stadium: on the road, they are just 3-4 while being outscored by -0.4 PPG. Indianapolis had that stinker of a game last month where they were shutout on the road in Jacksonville. They have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 road games after winning at least eight of their last ten games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight road games after gaining at least 400 yards.

FINAL TAKE: I recommend holding out as long as possible to see if you can grab a +6 with the Titans — all anything at +4.5 points or higher is nice for this situation. The question is not “who will win this game” — it is whether or not Luck and company cover the point spread they are being required to lay with Mariota out against a team with a great home field edge and an even better defense that is through-the-roof motivated to avenge a loss and get back to the playoffs. The value is all on the side of the Titans given this situation. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year with the Tennessee Titans (322) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (321). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (328) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (327). THE SITUATION: Denver (6-9) has lost three straight games with their 27-14 loss at Oakland as a 2.5-point underdog. Los Angeles (11-4) saw their four-game winning streak snapped with their 22-10 loss at Baltimore as a 4-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: The Chargers have clinched a playoff spot and will the fifth seed in the AFC playoffs unless Kansas City gets upset at home against the Raiders as near two-touchdown favorites. Head coach Anthony Lynn may be scoreboard watching and may decide to rest his key starters (like QB Philip Rivers) if things get out of hand at Arrowhead. As it is, I do not expect an easy time of things for this Chargers team that has lost their last five games at Denver. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a double-digit loss. There are lingering concerns with this team moving forward after they managed to generate just 198 yards of offense against the Ravens. Over their last three games, the Chargers have averaged just 21.7 PPG along with only 297.7 total YPG. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. Some of the issues on offense has been a breakdown with their offensive line. Rivers has been sacked 20 times over their last six games after enduring just 12 sacks in their first nine contests. That is an ominous sign for Rivers when now facing Von Miller and rookie phenom Bradley Chubb on the other side of the line of scrimmage. It is December as well — and the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in the last month of the regular season. Los Angeles has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when favored in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range. Denver has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 home games after a double-digit loss to an AFC West rival. While this team has been eliminated from the playoffs, they should be motivated to play hard to end their season. It is likely Vance Joseph’s last game as the head coach with John Elway likely to sack him tomorrow. But Joseph is well-liked in the locker room and his players should play hard for him. Quarterback Case Keenum is also playing for his job with it being a disappointing season for after the Broncos signed him as a free agent in the offseason. The team will be without rookie running back Phillip Lindsey who suffered a season-ending wrist injury — but that creates space for their higher-drafted rookie Royce Freeman to show off his skills in this game. While Freeman lacks Lindsey’s pass-catching abilities, he is a tough inside runner — and the team can turn to Dovontae Booker in passing downs. Denver may be down to young players as receiving targets for Keenum but their defense should keep them competitive in this game. The Broncos have allowed their last three visitors to Denver to average just 323.7 total YPG. Their loss to the Raiders on Monday was helped by a -2 net turnover margin along with allowing a 99-yard punt return for a touchdown earlier in the first quarter that took the winds out of their sails. They did out-gain Oakland by +23 net yards in that game. The Broncos have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has suffered three straight upset losses to ruin their season — but they have played much better at home than they have on the road. This is a team that plays up or down to their competition. They should play one of their better games of the season in this one in their last home contest facing a divisional rival that they will be very confident against after they defeated them in LA last month by a 23-22 score. 25* AFC West Game of the Year with the Denver Broncos (328) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (327). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (320) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (319). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (5-10) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-12 loss at New England last Sunday as a 13.5-point underdog. Miami (7-8) has lost two in a row with their 17-7 upset loss at home to Jacksonville as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS PLUS THE POINTS: The Dolphins are playing out the string with head coach Adam Gase and quarterback Ryan Tannehill likely to lose their jobs after this game. While both those individuals are competing for their next job, their lame duck statuses make this an uninspiring game for the rest of the roster and staff who are likely thinking about their offseason plans. That is not a good way for a team to end a season. As it is, Miami is just 12-25-1 ATS in their last 38 games after a point spread loss — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in eight of their last nine games on the road after a point spread loss. The Dolphins are also just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. To compound matters, Miami has been a dreadful road team this season where they are 1-6 with an average losing margin of -14.0 PPG while being out-gained by -131.9 net YPG. The Dolphins are allowing their home hosts to score 31.1 PPG along with averaging 402.9 total YPG. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road. Furthermore, the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 trips to Buffalo where they are scoring just 15.2 PPG. Tannehill has struggled in these contests as he is 0-4 in his last four starts at Buffalo while throwing only two touchdown passes and getting sacked 16 times. Unquestionably, the cold weather will bother this Miami team — they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of December. While they rank 30th in the NFL by averaging 294.2 total YPG, that number has dropped to just 262.7 total YPG over their last three games. The Dolphins defense also ranks 30th in the league by allowing 391.7 total YPG. Those abysmal numbers explain why Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 51 games in the last two weeks of the regular season, the Dolphins has failed to cover the point spread in 33 of these contests. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 30 games after a loss where they covered the point spread as the underdog. And while that was the first point spread cover for the Bills in their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. This Buffalo team sports an outstanding defense as they rank 2nd in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 298.7 total YPG — and that number drops to only 291.6 total YPG when playing at home. This team has plenty to play for as they want to use this game as a building block into next season behind their rookie quarterback Josh Allen. Head coach Sean McDermott is underrated — not only has he overseen the development of a strong defense but he also gets his team ready to play against divisional rivals. While Buffalo lacks offensive weapons, they are averaging 371.2 YPG in their six games against AFC East rivals which is over 80 YPG above their season average. The Bills also hold their divisional opponents to just 279.8 total YPG. Buffalo has also covered the point spread in 44 of their last 80 home games with the Total set in the 38.5 to 42 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Defensive lineman Kyle Williams has announced that he will retire after this game — and this added emotional element for this player who has served as the foundation of this defense for years should inspire his teammates to play hard so that he goes out a winner. The Bills will also be motivated by a 21-17 loss in Miami back on December 2nd. Buffalo is moving forward and will remain motivated to have a great game — while this Dolphins team looks to have already moved on. 25* AFC East Game of the Year with the Buffalo Bills (320) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (319). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (113) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (114). THE SITUATION: Houston (10-4) has won ten of their last eleven games with their 29-22 win in New York against the Jets as a 7-point favorite last Saturday. Philadelphia (7-7) has won three of their last four games with their 30-23 win at Los Angeles against the Rams as a +13.5-point underdog last Sunday night.

THE SITUATION: The Eagles found life last week behind Nick Foles as they pulled the shocking upset over the Rams. However, this remains a team ravaged with injuries on both sides of the football and I expect a big emotional letdown for the defending Super Bowl Champions. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. The Eagles were out-gained by 26 net yards to Los Angeles as they gave up 407 yards in that game but benefited from a +2 net turnover margin. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Now the Eagles return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 home games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Furthermore, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Houston (10-4) should build off their continued momentum after their bad 0-3 start as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. The Texans are also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread loss. This team has outscored their last three opponents by +6.6 Points-Per-Game. Houston is 5-2 on the road this season — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles play an inspired game last week behind their Super Bowl MVP — but that effort may have said more about the problems with the Rams than it did about the possibility of another Philly resurgence behind Nick Foles. Look for Houston to pull the upset in this game — but take the points for some insurance. 25* NFL Non-Conference Underdog of the Year with the Houston Texans (113) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (332) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (331). THE SITUATION: Carolina (6-7) has lost five straight games after their 26-20 upset loss at Cleveland as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. New Orleans (11-2) enters this game coming off a 28-14 win at Tampa Bay last week as a 10-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Carolina has had this night circled on their calendar all season as it is their first opportunity to avenge being beaten three by the Saints last year. The Panthers lost both regular-season games to New Orleans before losing in the first round of the playoffs by a 31-26 score on the road in the Superdome. Carolina should play one of their best games of the season as they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after an upset loss as a road favorite. The Panthers remain alive in the NFC playoff hunt but they must win this game tonight. Quarterback Cam Newton is not at full strength as he is dealing with a shoulder issue that is limiting his ability to throw longer passes. Yet going deeper into the numbers, it is the not offense that has been holding this team back. Carolina is averaging only 21.3 PPG in their last three games despite averaging a robust 437.7 Yards-Per-Game over that span — that is almost 60 YPG above their season average. The 393 yards they generated last week against the Browns was the lowest offensive output in their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 375 yards in three straight games. The Panthers out-gained Cleveland last week by 50 yards — in fact, they have out-gained their last four opponents despite losing all four games on the scoreboard. Carolina’s run defense is playing quite well at this point of the season. Over their last three games, they are allowing only 60 rushing YPG while holding opposing rushers to just a 3.05 Yards-Per-Carry average. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Now after playing their last two games on the road, Carolina returns home where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games. New Orleans has covered the point spread in ten of their last eleven games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. The Saints have also failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 40 games after a win on the road against a fellow NFC South rival. Despite their continued success, the New Orleans offense has slowed down a bit as they are averaging only 23.0 PPG along with just 262.0 total YPG over their last three games. Opposing defenses are finding success by focusing on taking away Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara in the passing game to make Drew Brees use his other less-talented passing targets. Defenses are also finding success by going into dime coverage on third down. These defensive adjustments are taking away the Saints explosiveness. Brees has passed for at least 200 yards just once in his last three games — and only six of his passes over those last three games have resulted in more than 20 yards. Lastly, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Carolina has been snake-bit during their losing streak — they are a better team than their losing record indicates. The Panthers should have a few tricks up their sleeve for this first opportunity to avenge their three losses to the Saints last season which defined their year. New Orleans may win this game — but it is difficult to defeat a divisional rival on the road by this many points that they are laying. 25* NFC South Game of the Year with the Carolina Panthers (332) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (331). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (308) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (307). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-6-1) has lost two straight games after their 21-7 loss at Seattle on Monday as a 3-point underdog. Miami (7-6) enters this game still buzzing off the “miracle in Miami” where they scored on a last-second hook-and-ladder play to pull a 34-33 upset over New England as a 9.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota should play well this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 37 games after a straight-up loss. Their loss on Monday was preceded by a 24-10 loss in New England the previous week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing two straight games by at least two touchdowns. Returning home will help where they are 4-2 while out-gaining their opponents by +91.1 net YPG. The Vikings hold their guests to just 19.3 PPG along with only 270.2 YPG. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 16  of their last 22 games on their home field. There should also be a better atmosphere on the sidelines after head coach Mike Zimmer fired offensive coordinator John DeFilippo and replaced him with Kevin Stefanski. DeFilippo was not a good personality fit with the demanding Zimmer who has a different philosophy. Stefanski is very highly regarded around the league and appears to be a better fit with Zimmer’s style. He takes over an offense for a team that has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games in the month of December. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after an upset win over a divisional rival. Furthermore, the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Additionally, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games off a home game where both teams scored at least 24 points. Now the Dolphins go back on the road where they are 1-5 with an average losing margin of -12.3 PPG while being out-gained by -116.3 net YPG. Miami allows their home hosts to score 29.5 PPG while gaining 400.3 total YPG. Defense is a concern for this team as they have surrendered at least 377 yards in four straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after allowing at least 375 yards in four straight games. They are allowing 430.3 total YPG over their last three contests. And in their last 11 games on the road, the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread 9 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have endured a difficult stretch of games but remain alive in the NFC playoff hunt. Look for them to take out their frustrations on an overachieving Dolphins team that is not very good when playing away from south beach. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year with the Minnesota Vikings (308) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (306) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (305). THE SITUATION: Denver (6-7) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last Sunday with their 20-14 loss at San Francisco as a 3-point favorite. Cleveland (5-7-1) has won three of their last four games with their 26-20 upset win at home over Carolina last week as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver was caught flat last week after winning three straight games and playing a 49ers team that will be missing the playoffs. But the Broncos have rebounded to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after suffering an upset loss on the road as the favorite. Denver had covered point spread expectations in their three previous games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after covering two of their last three games. Now after playing their last two games on the road, returning home should help this team. They are playing outstanding run defense right now as they have held their last seven opponents to just a 3.58 Yards-Per-Carry mark song with only 72.7 rushing YPG. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after the first month of the season. They also have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow AFC opponents. Cleveland may be due for a letdown after pulling the upset at home against the reeling Panthers. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. That game finished below the 47.5-point Total — but Cleveland has then failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. And while the Browns have played their last two games Under the Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after playing at least two straight Unders. Cleveland is flirting with danger having lost the turnover battle in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after suffering a -1 or worse turnover battle in two straight games. The Browns defense surrendered 393 yards to Carolina in their victory but they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. They have allowed their last three opponents to rush for 108 rushing YPG while averaging 5.06 YPC — and those are scary numbers when facing this Broncos team that is 7th in the NFL by averaging 130.2 rushing YPG. Cleveland now plays their third game in their last four contests on the road where they are 1-5 this season while surrendering 29.0 PPG along with 412.2 total YPG. The Browns are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games on the road while failing to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a losing record at home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog getting no more than 7 points. And in their last 5 games against fellow AFC opponents, Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these contests.

FINAL TAKE: Expect this Browns team to struggle in the high-altitude in Denver where the Broncos typically enjoy a significant home-field advantage. Both those teams remain technically alive in the playoff race — but it is Denver that has a more realistic chance of qualifying for the playoffs if they win their remaining games. 25* AFC Game of the Year with the Denver Broncos (306) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.