At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (129) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (130). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (6-6) has won two straight games with their 28-13 win over Washington on Monday as a 5.5-point favorite. Dallas (7-5) has won four straight games with their triumphant 13-10 upset win over New Orleans back on November 29th as a 7.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: The Cowboys acted like they won the Super Bowl two Thursdays ago with their upset win over the Saints on that short week. We had Dallas in that game — and the fringe benefit to that victory was that it set up this letdown situation. The Cowboys have been fortunate to reach their 7-5 record given that six of their victories have been decided by one scoring possession. They are only out-gaining their opponents by +13.6 net YPG. They have covered the point spread in four straight games along with five of their last seven — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 39 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests. They held the Saints to just 176 yards of offense last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 205 total yards of offense. Dallas is also just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing no more than 14 points in their last game. Philadelphia enters this critical game for them with momentum — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after winning two straight games. The Eagles have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win at home against a divisional rival. They also have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after playing their last two games at home. Carson Wentz is heating up as he completed 27 of 39 passes against the Skins for 306 yards with two touchdown passes. Wentz loves facing NFC East foes against which he has a 7-1 record with a 17:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio while averaging 262.4 passing YPG along with a 106.2 Passer Rating. Wentz led his offense to 436 total yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after gaining at least 350 yards of offense in their last game. The defense has been the biggest issue for this team simply ravaged by injuries which was made even worse this week with the news that they placed cornerback Jalen Mills on Injured Reserve. The Eagles have allowed their last two opponents to average 6.03 and 7.31 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 road games after allowing at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. The Philly run defense remains stout as they rank 10th in the NFL by allowing 103.7 rushing YPG — and asking Dak Prescott to beat them with his arm is the preferred strategy anyways. The reigning Super Bowl Champions are tough in expected close games as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: As opposed to last week when the Cowboys had the gigantic chip on their shoulder hosting the Saints on a ten-game winning streak, it is the Eagles now with something to prove in this game after Dallas won their proverbial Super Bowl to (temporarily) quell all their insecurities. Philadelphia is looking to avenge a 27-20 loss at home to the Cowboys back on November 11th despite being 7.5-point favorites in that game. Not only have the Eagles covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games on the road when playing with same-season revenge but they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging an upset loss where they were home favorites laying at least a touchdown. 25* NFC East Game of the Year with the Philadelphia Eagles (129) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (130). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (107) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (108). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-6) looks to rebound from their humiliating 6-0 shutout loss on the road to Jacksonville last week despite being a 4-point favorite. Houston (9-3) has rattled off nine straight victories with their 29-13 win over Cleveland last week as a 5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: Indianapolis should be very feisty in this game after being shutout — they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. If there is anything encouraging from that loss to the Jaguars, it was the continued improvement of the Colts defense that held Jacksonville to just 211 yards of offense. Over their last three games, Indianapolis has allowed only 13.3 PPG along with just 262.7 total YPG. Indy is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after not allowing more than 250 yards of offense in their last game. Additionally, the Colts have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. Furthermore, Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after a low-scoring game where neither team scored more than 14 points. This is a challenge for this team when facing this ferocious defense that has registered 34 sacks for the season. But this strong Colts’ offensive line has allowed only 14 sacks this season — so Andrew Luck should have an opportunity to find receivers this afternoon. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. The Colts are also 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 games against their AFC South rivals — and this includes them going 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Houston. The Texans generated 384 yards of offense last week against the Browns — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. But a concern for this team is their defense that allowed 428 yards to the Browns with rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield gaining 397 of those yards in the air. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 305 yards in their last game. This shapes up to be a higher scoring game with the Total set in the low-50s — but this is not the type of game that this team prefers. The Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Furthermore, Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the month of December under head coach Bill O’Brien.

FINAL TAKE: The Texans won the first meeting between these two teams back on September 30th by a 37-34 score despite that game being played in Indianapolis. The Colts have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. Don’t be surprised if Indy pulls the upset — but take the points for some nice insurance in what should be a close game. 25* AFC South Underdog of the Year with the  Indianapolis Colts (107) plus the points versus the Houston Texans (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (102) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (101). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (6-6) snapped their two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 26-22 win over the New York Jets as a 10.5-point favorite. Jacksonville (4-8) ended their seven-game losing streak with their 6-0 shutout victory over Indianapolis as a 4-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS MINUS THE POINTS: The Jaguars’ defense may have been inspired to make a statement with head coach Doug Marrone’s decision to end the Blake Bortles era last week with him being benched for Cody Kessler at quarterback. Jacksonville stepped up t shutout Andrew Luck and the Colts’ offense while holding them to just 265 yards of offense. But this remains a lost season for the Jaguars who need to win their final four games just to get to an 8-8 record. Sure, Jacksonville can also try to motivate themselves to play the role of the spoiler — but that seems unlikely for this group at this point particularly with them playing on a short week. The Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after an upset victory as a home underdog. Jacksonville is also 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Jags held Indy to averaging just 3.90 Yards-Per-Play in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 4.0 YPP in their last game. The bigger problem for this team remains their offense now reliant on Kessler running the show. He passed for just 150 yards in that game leading an offense that generated a mere 211 yards. Jacksonville was out-gained by 54 net yards even in that victory. The Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. While the Bortles narrative has received most of the attention this season, one of the biggest reasons why this team has underachieved this season has been that they have ravaged by injuries. Jacksonville has a whopping fifteen players on Injured Reserve at this point of the season including three of their opening day starters on the offensive line headlined by their All-Pro left guard Andrew Norwell. Now this team goes back on the road where they are just 1-5 this season while being outscored by -9.3 PPG while allowing their home hosts to score 27.0 PPG. The Jags are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games on the road. Furthermore, Jacksonville is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against fellow AFC South opponents — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Titans. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in three straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. The Titans held the Jets to just 124 passing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Tennessee stays at home on this short week where they are 4-1 this season — and they are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games at home. Additionally, the Titans have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored by 7 points or less. The Tennessee defense is a top-nine unit in yards allowed while ranking 6th in the league by holding their opponents to only 20.4 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: I would put more credence into the potential role of the spoiler for the Jaguars if they had a whole week to prepare — instead, I suspect they rested on their laurels after stepping up last week against the Colts. Quarterback Marcus Mariota is playing better football as of late as he gets back to 100% health. Look for this tough Titans team to take care of business on their home field. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year with the Tennessee Titans (102) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (272) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (271). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (5-4-1) has lost two of their last three games after their 25-20 loss last Sunday night in Chicago to the Bears as a 2.5-point underdog. Green Bay (4-5-1) has lost three of their last four contests with their 27-24 loss in Seattle last Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota has been incredibly resilient under head coach Mike Zimmer. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 35 games after a straight up loss. They return home where their defense thrives by holding their visitors to just 19.0 PPG along with 273.4 total YPG. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Minnesota is also a decisive 36-16-2 ATS in their last 54 games on their home field. Additionally, the Vikings have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of November. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. And while they allowed 378 yards of offense to the Seahawks last week, they are then just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Green Bay stays on the road this week where they are winless in five games while being outscored by -8.2 PPG in those games due to them allowing 29.8 PPG with the fewest points allowed being 27 to their home hosts. The Packers are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games away from home. Furthermore, Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games in the month of November — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last games against NFC North foes.

FINAL TAKE: I don’t like where this Packers team is headed this season with head coach Mike McCarthy seemingly now a lame duck while Aaron Rodgers ignores his play selections at the line of scrimmage. Minnesota is also reeling — but their vastly superior roster depth should help them do what it takes to win this game in convincing fashion. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Minnesota Vikings (272) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (271). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (107) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (108). THE SITUATION: Washington (6-4) has lost two of their last three games with their 23-21 loss to Houston on Sunday as a 3-point underdog. Dallas (5-5) pulled off their second-straight upset victory on Sunday with their 22-19 win in Atlanta over the Falcons as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SKINS PLUS THE POINTS: The bigger news for Washington was the gruesome leg injury to quarterback Alex Smith that ended his season in eerily similar ways to what to Joe Theismann for the team over two decades ago. The offense is now in the hands of the nine-year veteran Colt McCoy. I am a bit more bullish on what McCoy can do running this offense than the general public. The former Texas star has 25 professional starts under his belt with a firm understanding of the Jay Gruden offense having been with the Skins for 4 1/2 seasons. McCoy does not have a strong arm — but neither does Smith. I expect McCoy to capably run the offense while limiting his mistakes and letting the stout Skins’ defense keep them in the game. I certainly expect Washington to play hard in this crucial NFC East contest. As it is, the Skins have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after a loss at home. Additionally, Washington has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. Furthermore, the Skins have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games in the month of November — and they have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 trips to Dallas to face the Cowboys. Dallas returns home after pulling off two straight upset wins on the road against the Eagles and Falcons — but this remains a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after a win on the road by a field goal or less. This is not a franchise that handles short-term prosperity very well. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record at home. Dallas held Atlanta to just 324 yards of offense due in large measure to limiting them to 10 fewer snaps on offense versus their season average. The Cowboys have allowed their last two opponents to average 6.23 and 7.02 Yards-Per-Play — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after allowing their last two opponents to average at least 6.5 YPP. Dallas has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 10 games played on a Thursday, the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of these contests.

FINAL TAKE: Four of Dallas’ five victories this season have been decided by one scoring possession. They may win this game — but this should be a close contest between divisional rivals with first-place and playoff positioning on the line. Taking the points will be valuable with a Washington team that should rally around each other after the injury to their starting quarterback. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the Washington Redskins (107) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (462) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (461). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (4-5) has won three straight games after their 29-26 win over Jacksonville as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Tennessee (5-4) looks to build off their 34-10 upset win over New England as 6.5-point underdogs last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS MINUS THE POINTS: The Titans have pulled off two straight upset wins as their victory over the Patriots was preceded by their 28-14 upset win at Dallas a 4-point underdog back on Monday Night Football. Tennessee looks due for a visit to Letdown City. As it is, they have failed to cover the points spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they are a decisive 16-34-2 ATS in their last 52 games after a straight-up win. The Titans did generate 385 yards of offense against the New England defense while averaging 6.31 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP. But now Tennessee goes back on the road where they are scoring only 17.6 PPG while averaging just 304.0 total YPG. The Titans are just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 road games against teams that do not have a winning percentage above .500 at home. Tennessee is also only 10-27-3 ATS in their last 40 games against teams with a losing record. This game has a high Total with the number creeping into the 50s — and this is not the type of game that the Titans do well in. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Indianapolis is one of the hottest teams in the league right now — and they have been propelled by their success in rushing the football. Over their last four games, they are averaging 162.5 rushing YPG while averaging 5.24 Yards-Per-Carry. Perhaps more importantly, they are averaging 30.5 rushing attempts per game over that span — and that commitment to running the ball pays dividends in ways that too many in the analytics community fail to grasp. Moving the chains helps the Colts defense by keeping them off the field and fresh. A credible ground game also helps quarterback Andrew Luck be more effective in the passing game. Luck has tossed at least three touchdown passes in six straight games — and he has his favorite weapon back in tight end Jack Doyle who had missed the first part of the season with an injury. Indianapolis enjoyed an outstanding draft this year with the tear top pick in guard Quentin Nelson out of Notre Dame really paying dividends. Luck has not been sacked in his last 189 pass attempts. Indianapolis has scored 71 points over their last two games — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. Additionally, the Colts have averaged at least 6.27 Yards-Per-Play in each of their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 34 of their last 51 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last two games — and they have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last four games. Indy did allow 415 yards last week to a desperate Jaguars team — but they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Colts stay at home where they are scoring 30.7 PPG while averaging 400.0 total YPG — and they are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Indianapolis has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as the favorite. Lastly, the Colts are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games in the month of November.

FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis was swept by the Titans last season — so they surely had this date circled on their calendar as a critical point of their 2018-19 campaign. Of course, Andrew Luck was on the shelf last year. Their star quarterback has made a complete recovery from his array of injuries and finally has the support of a strong offensive line. Luck is playing the best football of his career — he should make the difference in this game. 25* AFC South Game of the Year with the Indianapolis Colts (462) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (461). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (308) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (307). THE SITUATION: Seattle (4-5) has lost two straight games after their 36-31 loss in Los Angeles to the Rams on Sunday as a 10-point underdog. Green Bay (4-4-1) enters this game coming off a 31-12 win over an injury-depleted Miami team as an 11-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Seattle is better then their losing record suggests as all five of their losses were decided by one-scoring possession — and they are outscoring their opponents by +3.1 net PPG. They should rebound with a strong effort tonight as they are a decisive 35-17-2 ATS in their last 54 games are a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Now this team returns home where they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Seahawks game is predicated on running the football as they lead the NFL by averaging 152.2 rushing YPG — and this attack will be bolstered by the return of running back Chris Carson from injury. This team has the luxury of riding the hot-hand with Rashard Penny, Mike Davis and Carson all likely to get carries early in this game. Seattle should find success against this Packers defense that is 21st in the NFL by allowing 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry. Over their last four games, Green Bay is allowing 4.97 YPC while allowing 120.5 rushing YPG. Even without Carson last week, the Seahawks rushed for 273 yards against the Rams — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Seattle is also 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games played on a Thursday night under head coach Pete Carroll. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. Now they go on the road for the third time in their last four games where they are 0-4 while being outscored by -9.5 PPG. The defense has let the Packers down on the road by allowing 31 points three times and 29 points in their other game away from home. Green Bay’s defense is a depleted group right now with linebacker Nick Perry, cornerback Kevin King, and strong safety Kontrell Brice all declared out for this game. That is not a good sign for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road. The Packers have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against fellow NFC opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games in the month of November. And in their last 4 games played on the faster field turf, Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread all 4 times.

FINAL TAKE: This is likely an elimination game from the playoff race for the losing team. Despite their five losses, the Seahawks seem to be heading in the right direction after their roster shakeup in the offseason — while the Packers seem to be hanging on by a thread with Aaron Rodgers just not having enough help around him on both sides of the football. Expect Seattle to wear down this Green Bay team. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (308) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (265) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (266). THE SITUATION: Detroit (3-5) has lost two straight games after their 24-9 loss in Minnesota last week as a 4.5-point underdog. Chicago (5-3) has won two games in a row after their 41-9 blowout win in Buffalo as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS PLUS THE POINTS: Detroit will be playing with desperation with that bad loss in Minnesota following up a 28-14 loss at home to Seattle. The entire organization is under scrutiny from quarterback Matthew Stafford failing to throw a touchdown pass last week for the first time all season to the offensive line giving up a whopping ten sacks to the Vikings to Matt Patricia seemingly over his head as a rookie head coach to the team appearing to have punted on the season after trading away wide receiver Golden Tate. Expect this adversity to have rallied this team together — they should come out swinging in this game. As it is, the Lions have bounced back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by at least 14 points — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after losing two straight games by at least two touchdowns. Detroit has also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 29 games on the road after a loss by at least two touchdowns. The trade of Tate should create more opportunities for their promising young wide receiver Kenny Golladay so I am not too worried about their offense. While the Lions averaged just 3.48 Yards-Per-Play against the Vikings defense, they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 32 games after failing to average more than 4.0 YPP in their last game. Furthermore, Detroit has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Lions have been reliable in situations like this as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Detroit is also 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games in the month of November — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against divisional rivals. Chicago is riding high with two straight wins by at least two touchdowns as they defeated the Jets by a 24-10 score before dispatching of a Nathan Peterman-led Bills team last week. Yet the Bears were actually outgained by a 264-190 yardage margin to Buffalo while managing a mere 11 first downs. Two defensive touchdowns and a +3 net turnover margin in that game masked a pretty mediocre performance by Mitchell Trubisky who passed for just 135 yards. My longer-term concern with this team is that head coach Matt Nagy is asking his young quarterback to do too much in lieu of establishing their ground game behind Jordan Howard. Expect a letdown in this game especially with the significant uptick in competition against a divisional opponent. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after covering the point spread in two straight games when laying the points as the favorite. Additionally, not only have the Bears failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 28 points but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Chicago has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin. Moving forward, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Chicago may win this game with this one being played at Soldier Field — but asking them to cover a point spread around a touchdown against an angry and desperate division rival (who remains alive in the NFC North playoff race) is too much to ask. Expect a close game that the Lions have a chance to steal. 25* NFC North Underdog of the Year with the Detroit Lions (265) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (266). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (472) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (471). THE SITUATION: New England (6-2) has won five straight games with their 25-6 win at Buffalo on Monday as a -13.5-point favorite. Green Bay (3-3-1) has lost two of their last three games with their 29-27 loss in Los Angeles to the Rams last week as a +7.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: New England should be in prime form for this game as they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a Sunday on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football. The Patriots have a number of injuries heading into this game but it does look like at least Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon will play despite being listed questionable by Bill Belichick’s very liberal use of the NFL’s “questionable” designation. They return home where they are a perfect 4-0 while outscoring their visitors by +13.8 PPG and outgaining them by +99.5 net YPG. Tom Brady is leading an offense that is scoring 36.5 PPG at home where he is completing 69.9% of his passes while averaging 308 passing YPG and accounting for 12 all-purpose touchdowns. And during their five-game winning streak, the Patriots are scoring 36.4 PPG and converting 50.8% of their 3rd downs which are both the best marks in the NFL during that span. New England has covered the points spread in 7 straight home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 home games when favored by not more than a touchdown. Additionally, the Patriots held the Bills to just 46 rushing yards last week — and they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. They also have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. And with this being an expected high scoring game, New England has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Green Bay looks to be at a crossroads after the Ty Montgomery controversy last week that culminated in him being shipped to Baltimore before the trade deadline. This veteran team may not respond well to the trade of Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix since he was playing at a very high level with the move suggesting that management does not believe the team has the potential to make a deep run in the playoffs this year. As it is, the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Now this team goes on the road where they are winless in three contests while being outscored by -8.0 PPG due to their defense that is allowing 30.3 PPG. Green Bay allowed the Rams to generate 416 yards of offense (with Clinton-Dix) last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. This team is also allowing their opponents to average 4.68 Yards-Per-Carry which the Patriots will certainly take advantage. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. This will be Aaron Rodgers first game ever played in Foxboro as a professional — and that is an ominous circumstance for a quarterback that has led his team to win in just eight of his eighteen starts on the road against an AFC opponent. In those eighteen road games against the AFC, Rodgers has been sacked 50 times. Lastly, Green Bay has failed o cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: The Patriots looked flat on the road on Monday against the Bills — but they should play much better back at home tonight with the challenge of hosting Rodgers. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (472) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (456) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (455). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (4-4) has lost three straight games with their 36-21 upset loss at Carolina last week as a -2.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (4-2-1) has won three straight games with their 33-18 win versus Cleveland last week as an -8.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Baltimore has suffered upsets in two straight games as that loss to the Panthers was preceded by an upset loss at home to the Saints. This has been a tough stretch for this Ravens team — and this is a must-win situation for them. John Harbaugh’s team has been reliable when responding to adversity as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Baltimore has played four of their last five games on the road so returning home will help. The Ravens are outscoring their visitors by +18.6 PPG while outgaining them by +92.8 net YPG — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored by no more than 3 points. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games against fellow AFC North opponents — and they are 5-2-2 ATS in their last 9 games in the month of November. Pittsburgh remains inconsistent as they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Steelers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games on the road after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Games on the road in the 1 PM ET time slot have been the Kryptonite for Big Ben Roethlisberger as he averages 275.7 passing YPG in his last six road games in the first slate of Sunday afternoon games which is more than 40 yards below the Steelers’ 318 passing YPG average this season. He has tossed only 8 TD passes in those last six road games at 1 PM ET while also throwing six interceptions. Roethlisberger also struggles in Baltimore where the Steelers have lost seven of their last ten games while accounting for 17 turnovers while being sacked 29 times which occurs once every fourteen passing attempts. Pittsburgh has also lost six of their last seven games in Baltimore. Overall, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against AFC North opponents — and they are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Ravens after losing by a 26-14 score at home back on September 30th. Lastly, this Pittsburgh team remains undisciplined in their play as they are last in the league in penalties and penalty yards — and this could make a big difference in an expected close game.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore remains a very good team despite two straight losses to two of the best teams of the NFC. Look for this team to step up with a crucial victory back at home against their arch rival. 25* NFL AFC North Game of the Year with the Baltimore Ravens (456) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (455). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (269) minus the point(s) versus the Arizona Cardinals (270). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (1-6) has lost five straight games after their 39-10 loss to the LA Rams last Sunday as an 8-point underdog. Arizona (1-6) has lost two straight games with their 45-10 loss at home to Denver on Thursday Night Football last week as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINT(S): San Francisco will be playing with revenge on their minds from a 28-18 loss to the Cardinals three weeks ago. The Niners were 3-point favorites in that game and dominated the contest at the line of scrimmage by outgaining the Cardinals by +237 net yards but were stymied by a +5 net turnover margin to give that game away. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 34 games when attempting to avenge an upset loss. San Francisco should play better after being overwhelmed by the last remaining undefeated team in the league. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss at home to an NFC West rival. Despite winning only one game, this team is playing hard for second-year head coach Kyle Shanahan despite the disappointing season-ending injury to quarterback Jimmy Garappolo. San Francisco has lost three of their games by one scoring possession. Second-year QB C.J. Beathard has been solid under center this year save for last week’s game with the Rams. He is supported by a rushing attack that is second in the NFL that averages 127 rushing YPG that will be getting Matt Breida back from injury for this contest. The Niners have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. San Francisco needs to do a better job protecting the football as they suffered a -4 net turnover margin last week after enduring a -3 net turnover margin two weeks ago in Green Bay - and that was the game after their turnover-fest against this Cardinals team. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after suffering at least a -2 net turnover margin in three straight games. Now San Fran goes on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record at home. The Niners have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games in Arizona against the Cardinals. Arizona has only forced seven turnovers in their other six games this season besides the game where they were gifted five times by these 49ers. The Cardinals’ offense is a complete mess as was painfully demonstrated in that Thursday night game where they managed only 223 yards of offense while surrendering two pick-six interceptions returned for touchdowns in just the first quarter of that game. That was too much for rookie head coach Steve Wilks who promptly fired offensive coordinator Mike McCoy. As if it is McCoy’s fault for a conservative game plan — this is the same offensive head coach who helped Peyton Manning in Denver along with Philip Rivers in San Diego thrive behind dynamic passing attacks. He was replaced by Bryon Leftwich who is considered a rising star in the coaching ranks. But Leftwich cannot fix a broken offensive line that was already one of the worst units in the league before left guard Mike Iupati suffered his shoulder injury that will keep him out for this game. Leftwich has no experience calling plays as well — save for some authority given to him during the preseason. The Cardinals are last in the NFL in rushing yards (64.6 YPG), total yards (220.9 YPG), 3rd down success rate (23.1%) and Big Plays (26). Leftwich can install flashier schemes for rookie quarterback Josh Rosen — but if the young QB still struggles to grasp the playbook, becoming more aggressive with this offensive line might be the quickest route for a season-ending injury for their franchise quarterback. Wilks is struggling in his first year as a head coach — and one of the benefits McCoy brought was years of coaching experience including a stint as the head coach with the Chargers. This is all bad news for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games when being listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: While both these teams have only won one game, the 49ers have been much more competitive in their games. Look for them to avenge their earlier loss to the Cardinals. 25* NFC West Game of the Month with the San Francisco 49ers (269) minus the point(s) versus the Arizona Cardinals (270). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Giants (475) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (476). THE SITUATION: New York (1-5) takes the field again after an embarrassing 34-13 loss at home to Philadelphia as a +1.5-point underdog two Thursdays ago on national television. Atlanta (2-4) survived a 34-29 victory at home last Sunday against Tampa Bay as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York has lost three straight games amidst internal drama about the play of Eli Manning. But this team gets an important piece back on offense in tight end Evan Engram who has been out with a knee injury. His presence on the field should help Manning while opening things up for Odell Beckham Jr. and their rookie running back Saquon Barkley. The Giants passing game has not been bad with Manning under center — they rank 13th in the league by averaging 260.8 passing YPG. But New York is scoring only 19.5 PPG which is 27th in the NFL. Engram should really help their Red Zone offense. As it is, the Giants have rebound to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss — and they are 13-6-2 ATS in the last 21 games after a double-digit loss at home. New York did generate 401 yards of offense against the reigning Super Bowl Champions while outgaining the Eagles by +22 yards. The Giants have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to score more than 14 points. New York trailed after the first thirty minutes of this game by a 24-6 score after going into halftime the previous week against Carolina by a 20-13 score. A better start tonight is critical — and this team has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games after allowing at least 17 points in the first half of their last two games. New York goes on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They also have covered the point spread in when playing with extra rest and preparation after playing a Thursday game. Perhaps facing the M*A*S*H unit which is this Falcons team is just what the doctor ordered. Injuries on defense have decimated that unit for Atlanta — they rank second-to-last in the league by allowing 32.0 PPG while ranking 30th in the NFL by giving up 417.2 total YPG. Additionally, the Falcons rank last in the NFL by giving up 24 touchdowns so far this season — and they are last in the NFL by allowing their opponents to convert on 56.2% of their third downs so Manning should have a good game tonight. As the injuries have mounted, Atlanta has allowed 35.0 PPG over their last four contests. The Falcons outlasted the Buccaneers last week despite allowing 510 yards of offense (389 passing yards) and getting outgained by -93 yards. They benefited from a +2 net turnover margin in that game. But that does not bode well for Atlanta tonight as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. Furthermore, the Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 30 home games after a win at home. Matt Ryan did lead Atlanta to outscore the Bucs in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Falcons have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after generating at least 400 yards in their last game. Additionally, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Falcons have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of the last 5 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the month of October under head coach Dan Quinn.

FINAL TAKE: Both these teams are looking to salvage seasons that started with high expectations. Atlanta’s fall has been more devastation when considering they made the Super Bowl just two seasons ago but have now experienced seemingly insurmountable injuries. Add running back Devonta Freeman and their veteran kicker Matt Bryant who are also out for this game. The Giants are getting healthier — and they have played pretty well on the road where they are only being gained by -3.0 net YPG. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the New York Giants (475) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (463) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (464). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (4-2) looks to bounce-back from their 28-21 upset loss to Pittsburgh last week as a -1.5-point favorite. Kansas City (5-1) looks to rebound as well from their narrow 43-40 loss at New England last Sunday night as +3.5-point underdogs.

REASONS TO TAKE THEN BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: Cincinnati played good enough to finally defeat their AFC North rivals in the Steelers — but they gave Ben Roethlisberger too much time to engineer a game-winning drive after they tied the score up late in the 4th quarter. Marvin Lewis’ team should rebound with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread setback. The Bengals have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset loss as a home favorite to an AFC North rival. Cincinnati needs to play better on the defensive side of the football after allowing 369 passing yards to Pittsburgh. The Bengals have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. But this team is an underrated offensive machine under coordinator Bill Lazor as they rank 6th in the league by scoring 29.0 PPG. This scoring average rises to a 30.7 PPG mark when they are on the road — and they generating 417.3 total YPG away from home as well. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road. They also have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against AFC opponents. Kansas City saw their undefeated season end last week in front of a nationally televised audience — but this remains a team favored by the betting public with Patrick Mahomes almost pulling off the comeback win against the Patriots. The Chiefs have paid off bettors in all six of their games this season — but that is a dangerous bandwagon to jump on to now. As it is, Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in their last 3 games after riding a six-game point spread winning streak. The Chiefs offense is certainly dynamic as they have averaged at least 424 yards of offense with a 6.24 Yards-Per-Play average in each of their last three games. But the Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after averaging at least 400 yards in three straight games. Kansas City has also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in three straight games. But with all those passing attempts are also possibilities to turn the ball over — and Mahomes has thrown multiple interceptions in two straight games. The problem for this Chiefs team is their porous defense that is allowing 28.7 PPG which is the sixth-most in the league. Kansas City really misses their veteran leader Eric Berry in their secondary who does not appear close to returning to the field. They will also be without linebacker Justin Houston who is dealing with an injured hamstring.

FINAL TAKE: Despite losing to the Steelers last week, the Bengals are an underappreciated team in the AFC. Expect a close game with the points being very valuable. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Cincinnati Bengals (463) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (464). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (472) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Dallas Cowboys (471). THE SITUATION: Washington (3-2) looks to build off their 23-17 upset win over Carolina last week as a 1-point underdog. Dallas (3-3) hopes to build off their 40-7 blowout win over Jacksonville last Sunday as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SKINS PLUS THE POINTS: The Cowboys are feeling pretty good about themselves after thoroughly dominating the Jaguars last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 31 games after a victory at home by at least three touchdowns. Dallas has also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a win by at least four touchdowns. Dallas is a perfect 3-0 at home where they are outscoring their opponents by +14.0 PPG — but it has been a completely different story when they go on the road where they are 0-3 with an average losing margin of -7.4 PPG. The Cowboys are scoring just 12.3 PPG away from home and generating a mere 275.7 total YPG while being outgained by -74.3 net YPG. The decline in offensive production is coming from Dak Prescott and their passing attack that is producing only 156 passing YPG on the road. And while this Dallas team has an underrated defense, they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 30 road games after not allowing more than 9 points in their last game. The Cowboys have also not covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. Washington benefited from a +3 net turnover margin last week against the Panthers — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. This team is doing a great job in protecting the football as they are second in the NFL with the fewest giveaways. The Skins did a great job of playing keep-away as they had a Time of Possession of 35:24 minutes in that game. But Washington will look to play better on defense after surrendering 6.03 Yards-Per-Play along with 269 passing yards. The Skins have covered the points spread in 10 of their last 15 games after allowing at least 6.5 YPP — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. Washington stays at home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games — and they have covered the point spread in 3 straight games at home with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Head coach Jay Gruden and the Skins coaching staff has certainly spent plenty of time in the offseason preparing for the Cowboys after losing their last four games against their NFC East rivals. Washington has not defeated Dallas since January 3rd of 2016 but that was in the Kirk Cousins era. The Skins have new hope to dispatch of their divisional rivals with Alex Smith under center. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the Washington Redskins (472) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Dallas Cowboys (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (468) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (467). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (3-3) looks to bounce-back from their ugly 40-7 upset loss at Dallas last week as a 3-point favorite. Houston (3-3) has won three straight games with their 20-13 win over Buffalo as a 10.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS MINUS THE POINTS: I have no illusions about this Jacksonville team that seems to be a shadow of the group that almost upset New England in last year’s AFC Championship Game. The Jags have lost six of their last eleven games and have taken a (predictable) step back on defense. And the Blake Bortles situation only seems to be worsening before it reaches its inevitable end. That all said — and after getting burned on this team last week — we want to be investing in situations like this. This is an embarrassed team that has lost two straight games by at least 16 points — but they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Jacksonville has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread setback. Now after playing their last two games on the road, this team returns home where they are outscoring their opponents by +9.0 PPG and outgaining them by +167.6 net YPG. Bortles tends to play better on his home field where he is leading an offense that is generating 405.3 total YPG. The team traded for running back Carlos Hyde this week but he is not expected to suit up with the short turnaround — but they still have a capable running back in T.J. Weldon. While their offense managed only 204 yards last week, they ave then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. The Jags’ defense should also play better at home where they are limiting their opponents to just 13.7 PPG along with only 232.7 total YPG. Jacksonville is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Jaguars have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on their home field. And in their last 10 games against fellow AFC South opponents, Jacksonville has covered the point spread 7 times. Houston may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. The Texans won that game despite Deshaun Watson passing for only 142 net yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to pass for more than 150 team yards. Watson is protected by one of the weakest offensive lines in the NFL — expect for him to be in trouble all afternoon against this stout and deep Jaguars defensive line. Now after playing their last two games on the road, Houston goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games. And in their last 6 games against AFC South foes, the Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: Even if Jacksonville is just a .500 team at this point, they should play one of their best games of the season at home against a divisional rival. 25* NFL AFC South Game of the Month with the Jacksonville Jaguars (468) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (467). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (451) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (452). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (3-3) looks to bounce-back from a 21-0 shutout loss at home to Baltimore last Sunday as 2.5-point underdogs. Los Angeles (4-2) has won three straight games after their 38-14 triumph on the road at Cleveland as a small 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: Tennessee’s offense was simply dormant last week as they managed only 106 yards of offense against the stout Ravens defense. The Titans need to get back to running the football — Derrick Henry ran the ball only 7 times in that loss last week. The shutout loss should get the attention of the offense in practice and meetings this week. Tennessee has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to generate at least 275 yards of offense. The Titans have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss — and this includes then covering the point spread in six of their last eight contests after a setback. Tennessee also surrendered 361 yards of offense in that game to Baltimore — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 375 yards of offense. Defense is a strength of this team as the Titans ranked 3rd in the NFL by allowing only 17.8 PPG while also ranking 8th in the league by only giving up just 337.8 total YPG. These difficult trips to London test the character of teams — and I expect head coach Mike Vrabel’s team to respond with a strong effort. This team’s play on defense improves on the road as they limit their opponents to just 15.3 PPG and just 265.7 total YPG. Tennessee ranks 5th in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 214.7 passing YPG — so they should be able to slow down Phillip Rivers and the Chargers’ passing attack. The Titans have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Los Angeles has the difficult trip of traveling to London from the west coast — and they were already coming off a game on the road in Cleveland. A letdown looks possible for this Chargers team that is feeling pretty good about themselves right now. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. Additionally, the Chargers are just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while LA generated 449 yards of offense against the Browns defense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Expect a spirited effort from this Titans team after their embarrassing performance last week. Their strong defense and a commitment to winning the game at the line of scrimmage should help them keep things close. 25* NFL London Calling Game of the Year with the Tennessee Titans (451) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (302) plus the point(s) versus the Denver Broncos (301). THE SITUATION: Arizona (1-5) looks to bounce-back from their 27-17 loss at Minnesota last Sunday as a 10-point underdog. Denver (2-4) has lost four straight games after their 23-20 loss to the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Arizona should play better in this game as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. After playing their last two games on the road, the Cardinals return home where rookie quarterback Josh Rosen will be making his first start in front of the home fans. Rosen helps this offense because he has a better arm than Bradford which allows him the Arizona offense to design route schemes where the former UCLA star can hit tight windows. His pocket awareness also will help with their depleted offensive line. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, Arizona is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a losing record. Denver is reeling with second-year head coach Vance Joseph on the hot seat after their encouraging 2-0 start and Broncos’ fans already clamoring for Chad Kelly to replace the struggling Case Keenum who has already thrown 8 interceptions to just 7 touchdown passes. But the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 1-6-2 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread setback. Denver’s once strong defense has fallen apart as they rank 27th in the league by allowing 407.3 total YPG. It is the run defense that has let the Broncos down as they have allowed a whopping 225.7 rushing YPG over their last three contests with opposing rushers averaging 7.6 Yards-Per-Carry. This could be the breakout game for the Cardinals running back David Johnson who hopes to reimagine his form from 2015 where he generated 2118 yards from scrimmage before seeing his last two seasons derailed by injury. The Broncos are last in the NFL by allowing 161.3 rushing YPG. They gave 270 rushing yards last week to the Rams en route to surrendering 444 yards overall — and they are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. To compound matters, the Broncos are dealing with a host of injuries including their spark-plug outside linebacker Shane Ray who has been declared out for this game with a knee. This team is also dealing with attrition on their offensive line with right tackle Jared Veldheer declared out tonight and left guard Ron Leary already on IR. Now Denver goes on the road on a short week where they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games. The Broncos have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: These Thursday games are a test of a team’s character and a litmus test regarding the health of a team’s culture. These are two teams moving in opposite directions. Denver is in free-fall with injuries robbing Joseph of the opportunity to save his job. Arizona went through this last year but still managed to eke out an 8-8 season. Despite winning only one game so far this season, there is a sense of optimism with the Cardinals having gone younger after having the oldest roster in the league last year. Rosen and first-year head coach Steve Wilks offer this team hope which can be validated by the team earning their first win at home this season. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Arizona Cardinals (302) plus the point(s) versus the Denver Broncos (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (271) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (272). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (3-2) has lost two of their last three games with their 30-14 loss in Kansas City last week as a 3-point underdog. Dallas (2-3) has also lost two of their last three games with their 19-16 loss in overtime in Houston last Sunday night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS MINUS THE POINTS: Jacksonville should rebound with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, the Jaguars have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Quarterback Blake Bortles did pass for 430 yards in that game while leading an offense that generated 502 yards of offense. But he also threw four interceptions which buried his team. He tends to play better after embarrassing efforts — and Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Jags surrendered 298 passing yards to the Chiefs in that game — but they are a decisive 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games after not allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. They should slam the door on this one-dimensional Cowboys’ offense that lacks credible targets in the passing game. Jacksonville will be able to play eight players in the box to slow down Ezekiel Elliott since Dallas cannot burn them down the field in the passing game given their outstanding cover corners led by Jalen Ramsey. Dallas (2-3) is a mess given the turmoil surrounding this team with the Dez Bryant fallout and now the questioning of head coach Jason Garrett after he decided to punt on 4th down in overtime against the Texans which contributed to that outright loss. Bad vibes in Big-D. They have not covered the point spread in two of their last three games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three contests. Frankly, they were fortunate to even see overtime against the Texans considering that they were outgained by a 462 to 292 margin in yards. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. This Cowboys team also does not retain much of a home-field advantage in Jerry World either — in their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: Bortles should do a better job protecting the football in this game where the offense does not have to play aggressively — this is his kind of game with the outstanding Jaguars’ defense leading the way. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Jacksonville Jaguars (271) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (256) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (255). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-1) has won three straight games after they dismantled Tampa Bay two weeks ago by a 48-10 score as a 3-point favorite. Miami (3-2) has lost two straight games with their 27-17 loss at Cincinnati as a 6.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bears are the toast of the NFL right now with their intimidating defense led by Khalil Mack and their new wave offense under rookie head coach Matt Nagy. But before we anoint this team as the reincarnation of the 1985 Bears, let’s remember that this team has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home at Soldier Field. Chicago has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a bye week. Nagy’s game planning was clicking on all cylinders against the Buccaneers defense as they raced out to an incomparable 38-3 lead at halftime of that game while generating a total of 483 yards of offense. But the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. They were some cracks in the armor of this Chicago defense as they surrendered 251 passing yards in that game — and they are then a decisive 18-39-1 ATS in their last 58 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. And in their last 18 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of these contests. Miami will be looking to play better in this game after following up getting trounced in New England they blew a 14-0 halftime lead against the Bengals in Cincinnati last week. They were done in the second-half by a 22-yard interception return for a touchdown as well as a 19-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown. The Dolphins have rebounded to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after suffering two straight double-digit losses. Miami has also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not allowing more than a field in the first half of their last game. This is a scrappy group that head coach Adam Gase has kept together this season after they let go of some of their underperforming big personalities in this offseason. This team returns home where they are tough to play against. The Dolphins have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Miami has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as an underdog getting less than 7 points. UPDATE: the reports coming in late Saturday night is that QB Ryan Tannehill has an ankle sprain and is listed as questionable for this game. The point spread is moving is adjusting with the Dolphins getting more than 4 points in most locations. Brock Osweiler will go under center for Miami if Tannehill cannot go. While that is a downgrade, that is a QB with plenty of experience. The recipe for success with Miami remains winning this game on both sides of the line of scrimmage.

FINAL TAKE: I hate this situation for the Bears. I don’t like it when teams on hot streaks go into their bye week as it tends to cool off their momentum. And speaking of cooling off, this Chicago team will likely be dreaming of their hotel air conditioners or at least the crisp fall air in the Windy City about ten minutes into this game at South Beach where it remains hot as blazes. Former Miami Dolphin Brian Cox claimed that this Bears team is going to “melt” before this game is over — we have certainly seen the Patriots perform poorly in the Miami heat once it turns into fall in the north. The Dolphins should play very well in this game. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the Miami Dolphins (256) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (255). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (468) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (467). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (2-2) looks to build off their 29-27 win over the 49ers last week as a 10.5-point favorite. Oakland (1-3) earned their first victory of the season last week with their 45-42 overtime win at home against Cleveland.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Raiders have been a hot mess under head coach Jon Gruden — they have been consistently disorganized while players and coaches are making too many mental mistakes. They were given a few gifts from the referees to survive that game with the Browns. But Oakland has then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up win. The Raiders are generating plenty of offense — QB Derek Carr passed for 437 yards last week to lean an offense that gained 565 total yards. Carr passes for 325 yards in his previous game — but the Raiders have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 300 passing yards in two straight games. That offense has suffered a big blow with the need to place their veteran left tackle Donald Penn on Injured Reserve. Carr has not been nearly as effective when playing on the road where he has lost eight of his last nine games while committing 13 turnovers. While the Raiders may have a large contingent of fans at this game with it being played on Los Angeles where there is not a ton of love for the Chargers, this is still an unfamiliar playing environment for Carr. The Oakland offense will not have much room for error considering how terrible their defense is — they are allowing 30.7 PPG and the 123 points they have allowed is worst in the NFL. Their defense without Khalil Mack is last in both sacks and hits on the quarterback. Philip Rivers will have a clean pocket with all the time he needs to pick apart this Raiders’ secondary. Rivers enjoys a 15:2 touchdown to interception ratio over his last six starts going back to last season. The Chargers should play well in this game as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. And while LA allowed 288 passing yards to the 49ers, they are then 3-1-1 ATS after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Chargers are playing high-scoring games with all four of their contests seeing at least combined 51 points scored. But Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after seeing at least 50 combined points scored in four straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games after a game where both teams scored at least 24 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders just surrendered 42 points to Baker Mayfield who was making his first professional start. Mayfield may have tons of potential — but Philip Rivers is a bad mad with plenty of healthy weapons right now. While the Chargers do not enjoy much of a favorable home crowd, these critics fail to appreciate that familiarity plays a large role in creating home field advantage. 25* NFL AFC West Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (468) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (467). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (458) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (457). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (1-3) looks to bounce-back from their 22-0 shutout loss at Green Bay as an 8.5-point underdog. Tennessee (3-1) has won three straight games after their 26-23 upset win over Philadelphia in overtime as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS PLUS THE POINTS: Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen was even worse on the tape that his stats indicate. He completed just 16 of 33 passes for 151 yards with two interceptions. The rookie is going to be inconsistent — but remember how good he was two weeks ago at Minnesota against a stout Vikings defense where he completed an efficient 15 of 22 passes for 196 yards with a touchdown pass and no picks. The Bills should play closer to the one that made the playoffs last season as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Buffalo is 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games after not gaining at least 250 yards in their last game. Returning home will help after playing their last two games on the road — and the Bills have covered the point spread in 44 of their last 69 home games with the Total set in the 38.5 to 42 point range. Allen should be helped by LeSean McCoy who continues to see his injured ribs improve — he will be running against a mediocre Titans’ run defense that is allowing 118 rushing YPG along with 4.9 rushing Yards-Per-Carry. This Buffalo defense needs to play closer to the team that stymied the Vikings in Minnesota two weeks ago. The Bills surrendered 423 yards last week to the Packers — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. Tennessee risks being overconfident in this game as they are favored for the first time all season. The Titans have pulled off three straight upset victories — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset win as an underdog. Tennessee averaged 6.11 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have fled to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight road games after averaging at least 8.0 YPP. The Titans struggle to move the ball away from home as they are scoring only 14.5 PPG on the road while averaging 284.5 total YPG. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, the Titans are an awful 9-26-3 ATS in their last 38 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Look for Tennessee to be flat in this contest after pulling off three straight upsets. The Bills should play much better than their uninspired effort last week. 25* NFL AFC Underdog of the Month with the  Buffalo Bills (458) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (457). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (275) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (276). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (2-1) enters this game coming off a 27-14 win at home hosting Denver last week as a 5.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (1-1-1) looks to build off their 30-27 upset win at Tampa Bay on Monday night as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS PLUS THE POINTS: The Steelers struggle with consistency as of late — they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a straight-up win while also failing to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Pittsburgh is just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games played on a short week on a Sunday after playing on Monday Night Football. Their offense is getting a solid contribution from running back James Connor who has been pressed into duty given the holdout of Le’Veon Bell. But Connor has 70 touches already and risks losing steam without much help in the backfield — especially when playing on a short week. The absence of Bell has put more of the burden on the arm of Ben Roethlisberger who passed for 353 yards against the porous Buccaneers defense (that just made Mitchell Trubisky look like a Hall of Famer today). The Steelers are averaging 363 passing YPG in their first three games this season without Bell. But not only has Pittsburgh failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game, they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after averaging at least 275 passing YPG in their last three contests. This team has become sloppy under head coach Mike Tomlin as they are the most penalized team in the NFL entering Week Four by a wide margin with the next most penalized team committing nine fewer infractions. The Steel Curtain defense has also taken a step (or two) back in the wrong direction since losing Ryan Shazier at linebacker. Since he suffered that spinal injury last year, the Steelers have allowed their last ten opponents to score 28.8 PPG. Pittsburgh returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games. And in their last 4 games against fellow AFC North opponents, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread all 4 times. Baltimore lead the NFL in total defense by limiting their opponents to just 273.0 total YPG. But what might be surprising is that this team is fifth in the NFL by scoring 32.3 PPG. Going back to last season, the Ravens have scored at least 27 points in six of their last eight contests. Baltimore is a perfect 12 for 12 in the Red Zone in translating those opportunities into touchdowns. Quarterback Joe Flacco is having one of his best seasons as he clearly benefited from being healthy for training camp and the preseason. The veteran completed 25 of 40 passes last week for 277 yards — and the Ravens have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Head coach John Harbaugh’s team has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against fellow AFC North foes. Lastly, Baltimore has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 43 road games as an underdog getting no more than 3 points — and they have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have an axe or two to grind with their arch rivals after the Steelers swept both games between these two teams. Baltimore might pull the upset outright — but taking the points will certainly be valuable in what should be a close game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Baltimore Ravens (275) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Oakland Raiders (270) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (269). THE SITUATION: Oakland (0-3) is still looking for their first win of the season after they lost in Miami last week by a 28-20 score as a 3-point underdog. Cleveland (1-1-1) earned their first victory in two seasons last week with their 21-17 win over the New York Jets as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS MINUS THE POINTS: Oakland dominated that game with the Dolphins when looking at the statistics. They outgained Miami by a 434 to 373 yardage edge. They churned out 25 first downs while holding the Dolphins to only 13 first downs. The Raiders also controlled the clock for 38:31 minutes of the game. Those are good fundamentals moving forward which should produce good results — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after a game where they controlled Time of Possession for at least 34 minutes while also generating at least 24 first downs. Oakland should respond with a good effort as they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread setback. It has been easy to criticize head coach Jon Gruden in his return to coaching as he has made some moves that deserve scrutiny. But the Raiders have also faced a very difficult schedule: the LA Rams, Denver Broncos and them the Dolphins last week have a combined 8-1 record entering Week Four. Furthermore, Oakland has been competitive in all these games as they have enjoyed second-half leads in all these games before suffering from letdowns in the 4th quarter. It was only in 2016 that quarterback Derek Carr tied an NFL record by engineering seven 4th quarter comebacks to win games — so these blown leads are a relatively new phenomenon for this Raiders’ quarterback. Carr is completing 76.6% of his passes so far this season. Cleveland is feeling as good about themselves in years after rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield came off the bench to rally the team from a 14-3 deficit to defeat the Jets on national television on Thursday Night Football. But traveling out west to make his first professional start will be a difficult assignment for Mayfield. The Browns are just 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. Cleveland has also failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games as an underdog. The Browns benefited from a +3 net turnover margin in their win against the Jets who were also relying on a rookie quarterback in Sam Darnold. Cleveland has played their last two games Under the Total with the help of their stout defense. But the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing two straight games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Gruden has assembled a group of veterans on his roster who know full well this is a desperate moment for the team. The Raiders have a big edge over the Browns at quarterback in this game — and Cleveland has not felt what it was like to play a game after a victory since when Barack Obama was President. 25* National Football League Game of the Month with the Oakland Raiders (270) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (252) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (251). THE SITUATION: New England (1-2) looks to bounce-back from their 26-10 loss at Detroit as a 7-point favorite last Sunday night. Miami (3-0) remains undefeated last week with their 28-20 win over Oakland.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: New England has endured two straight upset losses — but those games were on the road with some extenuating circumstances. That first loss was in Jacksonville with the Jaguars looking to avenge a playoff loss to New England — and then last week’s game was against a desperate Lions team that was winless and coached by their former defensive coordinator, Matt Patricia. Returning home should help the Patriots right their ship. This team is an incredible 43-19-1 ATS in their last 63 games after a straight-up loss and they have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. New England lost that game with the Lions because they were able to successfully play keep-away — the Patriots only had the ball for 20:45 minutes of that game. That explains why New England managed only 209 yards of offense — but they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 32 games after failing to generate at least 250 yards in their last game. The Patriots have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. And while New England allowed 414 yards in that contest, they have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after allowing at least 350 yards. Furthermore, the Patriots have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow AFC East opponents. And in their last 53 games at home, New England is a dominant 35-16-2 ATS. Miami entered this season under-the-radar as they felt they improved the culture of their football team by letting some of their big ego players go elsewhere. The Dolphins defeated the Raiders last week despite being outgained by -61 net yards. The Miami defense surrendered 434 yards in that game including 345 passing yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 27 games after allowing at least 250 yards in their last game. QB Ryan Tannehill completed 17 of 23 passes for 289 yards in that win but the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Now this team goes back not the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 contests. Furthermore, Miami is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games against fellow AFC East opponents. The Dolphins have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight trips to New England.

FINAL TAKE: This is a must-win game for the Patriots who cannot afford to fall three games behind the Dolphins in the AFC East standings. New England will also remember their 27-20 upset loss as a 10-point favorite the last time these two teams played on a Thursday night last December 11th. The home team has covered the point spread in this series in 11 of the last 12 encounters between these two football teams. 25* NFL AFC East Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (252) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (251). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (476) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (475). THE SITUATION: Washington (1-1) looks to bounce-back from a sluggish 21-9 upset loss at home last week to Indianapolis as a 6-point favorite. Green Bay (1-0-1) kissed their sister last week but probably feel pretty good about their 29-29 tie with Minnesota considering that they were 2-point underdogs.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SKINS PLUS THE POINTS: Washington should respond with a strong effort in this game as they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, the Skins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss at home while they have also covered the point spread in 3 straight games after a double-digit upset loss as a home favorite laying at least 6 points in that game. Washington was feeling pretty good about themselves after a dominating opening win on the road at Arizona by a 24-6 score. Head coach Jay Gruden has an under-appreciated defense that is poaching Alabama defensive talent. Defensive end Jonathan Allen was off to a great start last year before his rookie season was cut short after five games with a foot injury. He reunited this year with nose tackle Da’Ron Payne whom the Skins drafted with their first-round pick this offseason. With cornerback Josh Norman leading the way, Washington was 9th in the NFL in pass defense. They collapsed to finishing last in the league in run defense but they were much better in those first five games with Allen in the mix. This season, the Skins are second in the NFL by allowing only 13.5 PPG while leading the league by giving up only 247.0 total YPG. They should play better on offense this afternoon behind QB Alex Smith as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. This will be the Packers first game away from Lambeau Field this season. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Packers have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games when laying no more than a field goal. Green Bay pulled out the tie with the Vikings last week after getting outgained by 129 net yards last week. They survived that game due to a touchdown they scored after blocking a punt in the end zone. This team could easily be winless entering this game if what was not for the miracle comeback from Aaron Rodgers on Sunday Night Football in the opening week of the season. But Rodgers is still gimpy and only one bad hit away from the Pack relying on the disastrous DeShone Kizer under center. As it is, Rodgers is not the same quarterback away from Green Bay as he holds only a 43-42 career record on the road while losing ten of his last seventeen starts on the road. Furthermore, I think the Packers are at a disadvantage on both sides of the line of scrimmage in this game against the Skins. Green Bay is averaging only 83 rushing YPG while giving up 103 rushing YPG. Lastly, the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against NFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The opportunity to take Washington as a home dog in this spot is a great situation for us. Let’s attack. 25* NFL NFC Underdog of the Month with the Washington Redskins (476) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (467) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (468). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (1-1) looks to build off their narrow 21-18 win over Cleveland last Sunday. Atlanta (1-1) also earned their first win of the season last Sunday with their 31-24 win over Carolina.

THE SITUATION: The Falcons are simply ravaged with injuries right now. The defense took two devastating losses in their opening game of the season against the Eagles when safety Keanu Neal and Deion Jones both suffered what are likely season-ending injuries. Those two players might very well be the best two players that head coach Dan Quinn has on that side of the ball. To make matters worse when facing Drew Brees and company, Atlanta will be without last year’s first-round draft pick in Takkarist McKinley after the defensive end was downgraded to being out with a groin injury. The Falcons surrendered 318 passing yards last week to the Panthers that does not have the weapons that the Saints enjoy — and Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. On offense, the Falcons are also without their top running back DeVonta Freeman who is dealing with an ankle injury — his absence will not make things easier for this team in the Red Zone. Of course, Atlanta still has wide receiver Julio Jones — but he has only one touchdown catch in his last nine games. Jones has not saved his prolific games for the Saints either as he has only one touchdown catch in his last eight games against New Orleans. These are all bad signs for a Falcons team that tends to suffer letdowns. Not only has Atlanta failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win but they have failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 50 games after a win at home against an NFC South rival. Even worse, the Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 29 home games after a win at home. New Orleans has yet to cover a point spread this season — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to cover point spread expectations in each of their last two games. Both of the Saints’ first two games have finished Under the Total — but they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after playing two straight Unders. Furthermore, New Orleans has lost the turnover battle in each of their first two games — but they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after suffering at least a -1 net turnover margin in two straight games. Brees owns a 16-9 career record against Atlanta and should be prepared to outgun Matt Ryan in this one. Fading the Saints away from the Superdome had a brief period of success — but it is a sucker’s bet these days (if that is one’s only reason). New Orleans has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games on the road while also covering the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games as an underdog. The Saints have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games played on grass.

FINAL TAKE: The underdog has covered the point spread in 7 of the last 9 meetings between these two teams. I just hate the injuries that Atlanta has endured so far this season — their losses on defense will be too much to overcome when facing Brees while being undermanned on offense without Freeman and still working out their Red Zone issues with offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian. 25* NFL NFC South Game of the Month with the New Orleans Saints (467) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (468). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (289) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (290). THE SITUATION: Seattle (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 27-24 loss at Denver last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. Chicago (0-1) also looks rebound from a narrow loss after they lost in Green Bay last Sunday night by a 27-24 score as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Seattle should play well tonight as they are 10-3-2 ATS in their last 15 games after a straight-up loss. And while they come off a scoring fest last week against the Broncos, they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total while also covering the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after a game where both teams scored at least 24 points. Many bettors are down on this Seahawks team after their disappointing 2017-18 season which saw them move on from a number of veterans in the offseason. But head coach Pete Carroll has created a younger roster this year — and he has a proven track record of getting the most of a group of youthful players. Seattle is 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Seahawks are also 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games when playing on Monday Night Football. Chicago played great in the first-half last week as they raced out to a 17-0 lead going into halftime at Lambeau Field — but they were outscored by a dominant 24-7 margin in the second-half. The Bears held the Packers to just 69 rushing yards in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight gams after allowing no more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. An injured Aaron Rodgers did torch the Chicago secondary for 301 yards — and they are a rough 17-39-1 ATS in their last 57 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Bears did manage only 294 yards on offense with their offense slowing down considerably after running through their set of scripted plays from rookie head coach Matt Nagy to quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. Moving forward, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games in the month of September — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played in the second week of the season. Furthermore, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as the favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 8 games against fellow NFC opponents, Chicago is 2-5-1 ATS.

FINAL TAKE: Many bettors will remember how good the Bears looked in the first-half of their prime time game against Green Bay which is why the original -2.5 points they were laying have been bet up to more than 4 points in many spots. The Seahawks are a bit underrated right now — making these points very valuable. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month is with the Seattle Seahawks (289) plus the points versus the Chicago Bears (290). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Oakland Raiders (482) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (481). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (0-0) is one of the top favorites to reach the Super Bowl this season after their 11-5 campaign last year. Oakland (0-0) looks to recapture past glory by bringing back head coach Jon Gruden after their disappointing 6-10 season last year.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: I will admit that I am skeptical of some of the moves that Gruden has made since returning to Oakland. Letting Khalil Mack go is not one of them. While the linebacker is one of the best defensive players in the league, the Raiders simply cannot afford him. It is just that simple. Perhaps Oakland can entertain the debate once they move to Las Vegas the wisdom of spending 40% of their salary cap on just two players. The Lions tried that out with Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and Ndamukong Suh (OK, that is three players) — and we know how that plan worked out. In the meantime, before the Raiders move to Vegas where the purse strings will be loosened, Gruden’s plan is to lean heavily on veterans who can execute his sophisticated game plans in a new league where practice times are limited during the season. I do expect the Raiders’ offense to come out with plenty of new wrinkles that Gruden has been accumulating in the nine years since he left Tampa Bay for the Monday Night Football television booth. He does have the quarterback who can execute these schemes in Derek Carr. While Oakland was probably not as good as their 12-4 record back in 2016, they are better than what their 6-10 mark last year suggests. Frankly, just the move of removing last year’s offensive coordinator Todd Browning will represent an upgrade for this team. They should play well out of the gate for Gruden as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the month of September including covering the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opening games to a new season. The Raiders are also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games on Monday Night Football. Gruden’s teams have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 home games as an underdog in the 3.5 to 7 point range. Los Angeles has added the aforementioned Suh along with cornerbacks Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib amongst a handful of splashy free agent acquisitions. I remain skeptical that the sum of these parts will be as good as advertised as this is now a roster with plenty of big personalities — and the formula of buying a Super Bowl has a bad track record in the NFL. This Rams team was exposed in the playoffs when they were upset by Atlanta by a 26-13 score despite playing that game at home. Los Angeles may start this season slow under the weight of Super Bowl expectations as they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 opening games to a new season. And while the Rams were 7-1 on the road last year, they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games in the opening two weeks of the season. Additionally, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 7 appearances on Monday Night Football, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread 6 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams roster is loaded but expecting them to cover a point spread more than a field goal against a quality opponent is simply too much to ask. Don’t be surprised if the Raiders pull the upset in Gruden’s official return to Oakland — but definitely grab the valuable points in this game for some insurance. 25* NFL Bailout Game of the Year with the Oakland Raiders (482) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (481). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Detroit Lions (480) minus the points versus the New York Jets (479). THE SITUATION: New York (0-0) officially begins the Sam Darnold era tonight as they hope to improve on their 5-11 season last year. Detroit (0-0) missed the playoffs last year after their second straight 9-7 campaign.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LIONS MINUS THE POINTS: Darnold demonstrated that he might be the most advanced of all the incoming rookie quarterbacks in the preseason — but he has still yet to encounter sophisticated defenses with defensive coordinators sticking to vanilla schemes in exhibition games. Rookie head coach Matt Patricia will surely make sure that the Lions’ defense will employ some of the same sophisticated defensive concepts that he used as the defensive coordinator for the New England Patriots. Darnold had turnover issues in college at USC — he threw 13 interceptions in his last fourteen starts. Playing in a hostile environment will also represent a new challenge for Darnold. As it is, the Jets are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45 point range. Additionally, New York has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games as an underdog. The Jets were only 1-7 straight up on the road last year with four of those losses being against teams with a losing record.  New York was the fifth most penalized team in the league last year which did no favors for their defense which was 25th in the NFL by allowing 352.3 total YPG. The Jets also are likely to start this season slow considering that they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of September. Detroit has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opening games to a new season with Matthew Stafford at quarterback. The ten-year veteran thrives when playing at home at Ford Field where he has an outstanding 60:19 touchdown-to-interception ratio while averaging 7.78 Yards-Per-Attempt with his passing game over the last two seasons as compared to his more modest 47:26 ratio along with a 6.94 YPA when playing on the road. The Lions were hit hard by injuries particularly on their offensive line as they had twelve different starting lineups on their line while trying twenty-one difference combinations last season. That group begins this season healthy while significantly upgrading their rushing attack by drafting Kerryon Johnson from Auburn while signing LeGarrette Blount from the Eagles. Patricia wants to run the ball more to keep his defense off the field. He inherits a defense that was second in the NFL by forcing turnovers in 16.8% of their opponent’s possessions. Detroit has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. The Lions have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 appearances on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit did not look very good in the preseason but Patricia did not reveal much of his new plans for the team. A healthy Lions team that runs the ball more should help Stafford be even more effective — and he has developed into one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the league as it is. Detroit should overwhelm a Jets team that has not done much to upgrade their roster outside of placing their future in the hands of Darnold. 25* NFL Monday Night Special Feature with the Detroit Lions (480) minus the points versus the New York Jets (479). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (462) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (461). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (0-0) returns to the field again after losing in the AFC Championship Game in which they lost in New England by a 24-20 score. New York (0-0) has undertaken a new start after crashing and burning last year with a 3-13 record.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Jaguars return 21 of 22 starters from last year — but one of those starters remains embattled quarterback Blake Bortles. The team signed him to a two-year extension after he did not commit a turnover in the playoffs. However, Bortles threw 13 interceptions in the regular season (7th most in the NFL) while only attempting 547 passes through the playoffs which was his lowest amount since his rookie season. Significant issues remain for this quarterback for which it is rumored that head coach Doug Marrone and his coaching staff limits his practice time against the Jags’ defense so as to not impair his confidence. Short-to-medium range accuracy remains an issue for the former Central Florida quarterback while his capacity to read NFL wide receiver routes is still a question mark. And while all quarterbacks struggle under pressure, Bortles’ becomes almost completely ineffective against quality pass rushes with his Passer Rating of 96.0 dropping to 55.2 — and that 40.8 drop in Passer Rating under pressure is the biggest collapse of all NFL quarterbacks. Bortles is also without one of his key weapons with wide receiver Marquise Lee out the season with a knee injury. Of course, the strength of this Jacksonville defense is their defense that was 2nd in the NFL in points allowed (16.8 PPG) and total yards allowed (286.1 YPG). But the Regression Gods are likely to make a visit with this team given those outstanding numbers — especially for a pass defense that was historically excellent. A favorable strength of schedule helped prop up those numbers last year. And run defense was an issue as they allowed opposing rushers to average 4.3 Yards-Per-Carry. The formula for success for this team was for the defense to ensure that they took a lead which allowed Bortles to execute most of his passes from play-action plays. But this team is not equipped to come-from-behind. The Jags only won one game last year when trailing at halftime — and they were 2-5 straight-up when their opponents scored first. That is not a good sign when playing on the road where they were just 4-4 last year with questionable losses at Arizona, San Francisco and Tennessee. Jacksonville failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against NFC opponents. The Jaguars have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games in expected close games where they were listed in the +/- 3-point range. And the Jaguars tend to start the new season slow as they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games in the month of September — including failing to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opening games to the season. New York should make significant improvements this season being just one year removed from their 11-5 campaign in 2016-17. The Giants suffered four net close losses decided by one possession. Furthermore, the team was ravaged by injuries particularly on offense with their wide receivers and their offensive line. QB Eli Manning will have a significant upgrade of talent in his huddle today with Odell Beckham, Jr. healthy and happy with his new contract along with rookie Saquon Barkley at running back along with a healthy line that has added left tackle Nate Solder from New England. The defense hopes to return to their outstanding 2016 form under new defensive coordinator James Bettcher after the unit was a dysfunctional mess as they rebelled against former head coach Bob McAdoo. Butcher brought in a former player with the Cardinals in defensive end Kareem Martin who will serve as a de-facto coach on the field. The Giants are not home underdogs very often in the Manning era — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games as a home underdog.

FINAL TAKE: This is a good opening situation to invest in with Jacksonville a bit overrated after their deep playoff run last year while New York being undervalued after they hot rock bottom last year. Grab the points and don’t be surprised if the Giants pull the upset. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the New York Giants (462) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (461). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (451) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (452). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (0-0) will have their Super Bowl Ring Ceremony at home at Liberty Financial Field as they open the NFL season at home after defeating New England in last year’s Super Bowl. Atlanta (0-0) will be playing with revenge on their minds after losing in this building last January 13th in a 15-10 loss to the Eagles in the NFC Divisional Round of the Playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE ATLANTA PLUS THE POINTS: The Falcons have spent the entire offseason stewing about that loss as they had the ball inside the 10-yard line with the opportunity to win that game before failing to reach pay dirt in four plays. That final series of plays demonstrated the difficulties Atlanta had all season in the Red Zone. While the Falcons were 8th in the NFL in total offense by averaging 364.8 total YPG, they dropped to 15th in the league by scoring 22.1 PPG. Most of that blame has been placed on their first-year offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian — and I consider those criticisms very fair for a cronyism hire for Dan Quinn with both coaches in the Pete Carroll coaching tree. Sarkisian’s only previous NFL experience was a Quarterback’s Coach with the Raiders under Bill Musgrove in middle-aughts before serving as Carroll’s OC at USC before taking that head coaching job when Carroll dashed to Seattle before NCAA penalties were handed down on the Trojans’ program. Sarkisian was last seen serving as the OC for Alabama when they lost to Clemson in the 2017 National Championship Game when he took over for the departing Lane Kiffin. While I presume my feelings for Sark have not been hidden, I do think he will improve with his Red Zone play-calling — and the team adding wide receiver Calvin Ridley in the 1st Round of the draft gives him another weapon. The fact remains that the Falcons have lost to the Super Bowl Champions in the playoffs in each of the last two seasons. This is a good team on both sides of the football who are well-positioned t make another run. Their offense last year was destined to take a step back after a historical 2016-17 campaign where they averaged 33.8 PPG. The deeper metrics suggest that quarterback Matt Ryan may have actually had a better season last year — he was victimized by five tipped balls that resulted in interceptions which were the most any QB has endured since the 2010 season. The defense steadily improved last year before flexing their muscles in the playoffs by completing the Rams offensive attack in Los Angeles in their 26-13 win in the Wild Card round before liming the Eagles to just 15 points and only 334 yards of offense the next week. That playoff game is when Philly unveiled the Nick Foles’ offense that featured head coach Doug Pederson’s version of the Run-Pass-Option offense that Foles ran previously under Chip Kelly — and that offense would go on to destroy the Minnesota and New England defenses. Perhaps the most important thing that Quinn has done this offseason was address a subpar Special Teams unit. Quinn hired a new assistant Special Teams coach in Mayur Chaudhari while focused the third day of the draft on potential new special teamers — and the team added a Pro Bowl Special Teamer in free agent Justin Bethel from Arizona. Atlanta begins the season almost completely healthy with zero players on Injured Reserve (as opposed to teams like Indianapolis who have 20 players on IR). The Falcons usually start strong as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of September. Atlanta has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games as an underdog getting 7 or fewer points — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 13 opportunities to play on Thursday Night Football, the Falcons have covered the point spread 11 times. I am not down on this Philadelphia team — but I do think the prospects of them suffering a letdown after their celebratory offseason is very high. The team is missing two key pieces in this game with QB Carson Wentz still out with his torn ACL and wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey doubtful with a shoulder injury. The Eagles are confronting a challenging history where seven of the last seventeen Super Bowl winners failed to even make the playoffs the next season. Remember that this Philadelphia defense surrendered over 500 yards of passing yards to Tom Brady before lifting the Lombardi Trophy. The Eagles defense begins this season with questions with their weak-side linebacker and their nickel cornerback.

FINAL TAKE: Ring ceremonies are tough on the home teams as it is very hard to get their minds off of celebrating last year’s accomplishments while their opponents are completely focused on the task at hand. With the Falcons filled with revenge as well, they should be very motivated to find a small measure of redemption from their disappointment from last January. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Atlanta Falcons (451) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, February 4th, we will be playing the New England Patriots (102) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (101) in the Super Bowl. Everything for Philadelphia (15-3) went right after falling behind in the NFC Championship Game after they fell behind by a 7-0 score as they then rattled off 38 unanswered points to upset the Vikings by a 38-7 score. Their momentum was triggered by a 50-yard interception return for a touchdown that tied the score at 7-7 and settled down Nick Foles and the Eagles offense while also igniting the crowd. We had Minnesota in that game — and, frankly, I am largely dismissing that result as the outcome of two outlier performances. The Vikings probably played their worst game of the season as they admitted in retrospect that they were emotionally spent after their dramatic last-second win over the Saints the previous week. Philadelphia also played one of their best games of the season — and I am expecting a big letdown for this team after such a dominant performance. As it is, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. But Philadelphia has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset win by at least three touchdowns as an underdog. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win as a home underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in three straight games after an upset win by at least three touchdowns as a home dog. Remember, this Eagles team squeaked by Atlanta in their previous playoff game due in large measure to the ineffective Falcons Red Zone offense this season. Despite how good Foles’ playoff numbers are (that we will hear about for two weeks), the Eagles scored only 15 points against Atlanta despite being at home. Over their last three games, Philly is scoring just 17.7 PPG while averaging a mere 336.3 total YPG. In Foles’ first four games since taking over for Carson Wentz, he was Checkdown Charlie who completed just 2 of his 15 passes of more than 20 yards in the air for a miserable 13.8 Passer Rating. Foles exploded against Minnesota by completing 4 of 6 passes of 20 or more yards in the air for 172 yards and two TD passes — but I have to credit some of that to the Vikings’ simply being shellshocked during what turned out to be a 38-0 run. Foles looked awful in his final two regular season games. I expect the true Nick Foles is somewhere in the middle of these performances — and that is not in Tom Brady’s dimension. The Philadelphia defense also deserves mention as they have flexed their muscles by allowing just 33 combined points over their last four games while never allowing more than 10 points in any of those games. But all those games were at home. In their three previous games on the road (before this recent stretch), the Eagles allowed 88 combined points at Seattle, at the Los Angeles Rams and at the New York Giants (and no doubt the Patriots will study what Eli Manning did in shredding the Philly defense for 795 passing yards in two games this season). Philadelphia allowed 23.5 PPG on the road this season with six of their eight opponents scoring at least 23 points — their seasonal stats are skewed by allowing just 9 points against that Cowboys team without both Ezekiel Elliott and left tackle Tyron Smith. Playing on turf might also be an issue for this team after playing on field turf just three times this season. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the faster field turf. Throw-in their lack of recent playoff experience playing away from home and the lack of Super Bowl experience for most of the players and coaches on the staff and this is all new territory for this team. With the back of all the members of this organization knowing that they reached the Super Bowl without QB Carson Wentz, left tackle Jason Peters and linebacker Jordan Hicks, this team has the profile of a group that may turn out to just be happy to be in the Super Bowl.

New England (15-3) is clearly focused on winning a second straight Super Bowl while adding credentials to the mark in the history books. Remember that this team began the year with talk of them going through the season undefeated. While that did not happen, they have now won five straight games with their 24-20 win over Jacksonville in the AFC Championship Game — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after winning at least five straight games. The Patriots have also covered the point spread in ten of their last twelve games — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. The Eagles were able to seize momentum against the Vikings not only with that defensive touchdown but also with a +3 net turnover margin. It is highly unlikely that the Patriots will be as giving as Minnesota was. New England has only turned the ball over three times in their last five games — and never more than one time during those five games. In fact, the Patriots only had 13 turnovers all season with just four of those games seeing them turn the ball over more than once and never more than twice in a game. New England has turned the ball over twice in only two games over their last twelve contests. This is a team that emphasizes protecting the football. They also have a significantly better Special Teams than the Eagles (at least according to Football Outsiders than ranks the Patriots as 2nd in the NFL while rating the Philly Special Teams unit 21st in the league). Additionally, let me state something that will appear obvious at first glance but perhaps a subtler reason to like New England in this game upon deeper reflection: the key to this game for the Eagles is to prevent the Patriots from getting off to a fast start. New England has played ten playoffs games over the last four postseasons where they are 9-1 straight-up with two Super Bowl trophies and a third pending. The Patriots have gone into halftime with a lead in five of those games — and they have gone on to win all five of those games by an average winning margin of +20.6 PPG with the closest final score being their 27-20 win over Kansas City in the Divisional round in January 2016 where they went on to lose at Denver. In those remaining five games where they either trailed or were tied at halftime, they still on to win four of those games. Three of those wins were by 4 points with last year’s Super Bowl being that 34-26 overtime win over the Falcons. So perhaps Eagles bettors will take comfort in their potential halftime lead given those numbers? Yeah, maybe — as if those three 4-point wins represents overwhelming evidence versus a point spread that looks destined to be in the -4.5 to -5.5 point range (as of this writing). But I took note of the fact that the Patriots have not gone to halftime without a lead in two straight playoff games since this latest Super Bowl run started in the 2014-15 season. After trailing Jacksonville last week at the half by a 14-10 score and the memory of their near-disastrous 21-3 halftime deficit to the Falcons in last year’s Super Bowl, I think that Bill Belichick will place a premium on getting off to a good start. And with their vast playoff experience and the fact that almost everything went right for the Eagles in the first-half last week when they went to the lockers with a 24-7 lead, why would one not expect New England to once again avoid trailing (or being tied) at halftime in two straight playoff games? Consistency defines Belichick and Tom Brady. They have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning record. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs. And in their last 36 games as the favorite, the Patriots have then covered the point spread in 27 of these games. Perhaps the Eagles pull off their third straight upset victory? Perhaps the Patriots will win yet another Super Bowl by 4 points or less like they have done in four of their five Super Bowl Championships in the Belichick-Brady era? Perhaps … but it seems like almost everything has to go right for the Eagles to be in that position. New England has shown that even if everything does not go right for them, they still enter into coin-flip situations regarding if they will cover the point spread. And if the breaks go mostly their way, the Patriots cover the point spread easily. That is a great betting scenario when our worst case scenario still puts us in solid shape. 25* NFL Game of the Year with the New England Patriots (102) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (101) in the Super Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (313) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (314). Philadelphia (14-3) has won four of their last five games with their 15-10 upset win at home against the Falcons last Saturday as a 2.5-point underdog. The Eagles got out their Dog Masks after the game to bask in their pulling the upset against Atlanta — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after an upset win at home as an underdog. Philadelphia has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up victory. The Eagles survived that game despite a -2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a game where they committed at least two more turnovers than their opponent. QB Nick Foles is the reason why this team is an underdog yet again in this game — but it is for good reason. He was solid against the Falcons after completing 23 of 30 passes for 246 yards with no interceptions. But he did not throw a touchdown pass - -and he rushed for -2 yards. Unfortunately for the Eagles, that was probably the most they can expect to get out of their backup QB. Remember that Foles struggled in his previous two starts against Dallas and Oakland — he completed just 23 of 49 passes for 202 yards with one TD pass and two interceptions in those two games combined. The Eagles did use the bye week to redesign their offense by having Foles run the read-option plays that he thrived executing in his one season running the Chip Kelly offense with the Eagles a few years ago. Who knows if the Falcons spent much time preparing for that blast from the past last week in practice — but it is a guarantee that the Mike Zimmer will make sure his team invests a significant amount of time preparing for read-options that other teams like the Cowboys and Panthers also deploy. So the element of surprise for Philadelphia running this offense is gone. Foles sees his effectiveness decline significantly when facing pressure — and he does not do a great job making quick decisions regarding his read progressions with wide receivers. Those are bad qualities to have when facing this ferocious Vikings’ defense. The Eagles are scoring just 11.3 PPG over their last three games while averaging only 256.3 total YPG. The rushing game has not been able to step up to take pressure off Foles. Philadelphia has not rushed for more than 96 yards in three straight games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after failing to rush for more than 100 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs.

Minnesota (14-3) survived their game with New Orleans last week with their 29-24 win Saints salvaged by the 61-yard touchdown pass to Stefan Diggs as time expired. I think that miraculous victory will galvanize this team and give them confidence moving forward — and it certainly cements any lingering doubts about the ability of Case Keenum to lead this team to the promise land. As it is, the Vikings have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win. And while Minnesota failed to cover the 5.5-point spread as the favorite, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Keenum completed 25 of 40 passes for 318 yards and a touchdown pass against the Saints — and the Vikings have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. The Minnesota defense did give up 358 yards to the Drew Brees-led New Orleans offense — but they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The encouraging aspect of the Vikings defense for this game is their run defense that ranks 2nd in the NFL by limiting team to just 83.6 rushing YPG. They have allowed only 74 rushing YPG over their last  three games after giving up just 30 and 80 rushing yards in each of their last two games. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. This stout Vikings defense is particularly good on 3rd Down where they were tops in the NFL in limiting opposing offenses in converting 3rd Down plays. In fact, Minnesota only allowed opposing offenses to convert 51 3rd Downs during the regular season. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games as the favorite. 25* NFC Playoff Game of the Year with the Minnesota Vikings (313) minus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Jacksonville Jaguars (106) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (105). Jacksonville (10-6) had nothing at stake last week but still played their starters in what ended up being a 15-10 loss in Tennessee as a 2.5-point underdog. That setback should eliminate any chance of this team being overconfident in this game despite being a favorite but more than a touchdown. As it is, the Jaguars have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread setback. And while the offense managed only 232 yards of offense, Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to generate at least 250 yards of offense. The Jaguars managed only 83 rushing yards in that game with Leonard Fournette handily a relatively light load by rushing the ball only 19 times for 69 yards. The good news for Jacksonville is that Fournette should be fresh for this game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not rushing for more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Now the Jags return home where they outscore their opponents by +7.5 net PPG. The Jacksonville defense gets most of the attention — and they have been outstanding at home by holding their opponents to just 18.4 PPG along with only 283.7 total YPG. But the Jaguars offense has been strong at home where they are scoring 25.9 PPG while averaging 402.7 total YPG. Jacksonville has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record, the Jaguars have covered the point spread in 5 of these games.

Buffalo (9-7) is a surprise entry into the postseason as they needed a late and improbable Cincinnati comeback victory over Baltimore to make into the playoffs after they defeated the Dolphins in Miami by a 22-16 score as a 2.5-point favorite. But their best offensive player LeSean McCoy suffered an ankle injury in that game which makes him a game time decision for this contest. Even if he plays, McCoy is not likely to be close to 100% — and that is very tough blow for this offense of which he accounts for 33% of its production. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. They were outscored this season by -3.5 net PPG this season while also being outgained by -52.6 net YPG. They were just 3-5 on the road where those disparities were even worse. Buffalo was outscored by -7.0 PPG on the road this year while being outgained by -64.1 net YPG. Lastly, this will be the Bills third straight game away from home which may contribute to their fatigue. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year on the Jacksonville Jaguars (106) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (105). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (103) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (104). Atlanta (10-6) enters this Wildcard Playoff game playing as good of football as they have played all season after their 22-10 win at home over Carolina that clinched their spot in the playoffs. The Falcons have won three of their last four games to earn the opportunity to defend their NFC Championship. Playoff experience is a big advantage this team has when facing the Rams. This Atlanta team is underrated on the defensive side of the football. They held their opponents to just 19.7 PPG while limiting them to only 318.4 total YPG. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Atlanta did generate 371 yards against the Panthers defense — and they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And in their last 19 games against fellow NFC opponents, the Falcons have covered the point spread 13 times.

Los Angeles (11-5) rested their starters last week in their 34-13 loss to San Francisco. I am comfortable ignoring the results of that game. However, that was the Rams’ fourth loss at home this season where they are struggling to create a fervent local group of supporters. This has to be one of the weakest home field advantages that a playoff team has ever had when considering this franchise is relatively new again in Los Angeles. The Rams are just 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games at home — and this includes have failed to cover the point spread in four of their last five home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Looking deeper at the numbers, while the Rams outscored their opponents by +9.3 net PPG, they only outgained these opponents by +21.6 net YPG. The Los Angeles’ run defense ranks only 28th in the NFL by allowing 122.3 rushing YPG — and they allowing opposing rushers to average 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry. While the Falcons will be without guard Andy Levier, they will have both their running backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman healthy for this game after both backs have been dealing with injuries in the closing weeks of the season. Additionally, I think there is a significant edge for the Falcons with their head coach Dan Quinn and their quarterback Matt Ryan as compared to the Rams’ Sean McVay and QB Jared Goff. While McVay is being hailed as an offensive guru, he has never coached a playoff game while coming from an organization in Washington that is not a perennial playoff team. For my tastes, his head is buried in his iPad too often and I worry this will result in game management issues. When it comes to Goff, I am not convinced he has progressed beyond being a product of the McVay system. In clutch situations, Goff has not delivered this season — and I have been watching closely with their home losses to Philadelphia and Seattle being two examples of this. Furthermore, while this Rams team has an outstanding Special Teams, they will really miss one of the best place kickers in the league with Greg Zuerlein going on Injured Reserve to a few weeks ago. All these intangibles provide context for a football team that has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of January — and this franchise has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the playoffs. The Rams may win this game — but I expect a very close contest with this Falcons team that will be a tough “out” with their experience of playing in the Super Bowl last season. 25* NFC Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the Atlanta Falcons (103) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (127) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (128). Seattle (8-6) might have experienced their most humiliating loss in the Pete Carroll era last week in their 42-7 loss to the Rams. The season began with locker room angst between the defensive and offensive units and while those issues appeared to have been put aside during the season, injuries have decimated their roster. Now that they are out of the playoff hunt, this Seahawks team is playing for pride. But I do expect that to be enough motivation for this team as they look to make amends to each other for last week’s terrible effort. Seattle is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a straight-up loss. And while they have played two straight games Over the Total, they have then covered  the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after playing two straight games Over the Total. The team is getting back a healthier Bobby Wagner on defense who did practice this week after trying to take the field last Sunday. His presence on defense will be a big help. The Seahawks are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road. And in their last 29 games in the month of December, Seattle is 20-8-1 ATS.

Dallas (8-6) has won three games in a row with their 21-17 win in Oakland against the Raiders as a 3-point favorite. The Cowboys now get Ezekiel Elliott back after he completed his six-game suspension — and it looks like Dallas plans on giving him a ton of touches this afternoon. But the straw that stirs the drink is their left tackle Tyron Smith who is listed as questionable with the knee injury that has been slowing him down for the second-half of the regular season. Even if Elliott has been keeping in shape by running the beaches of the tropical locale from which he spent most of his suspension time, he might not have the endurance yet to be at 100% as he normally would be at midseason. As it is, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. The Cowboys have not enjoyed much of a home field advantage either in AT&T Stadium where they are just 3-4 this season while being outgained by -18.0 net YPG and being outscored by -1.1 PPG. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record, the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread 5 times. 25* NFC Underdog of the Year with the Seattle Seahawks (127) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (128). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (116) minus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (115). New Orleans (10-4) will be looking to avenge a 20-17 loss in Atlanta back on December 7th in this game. The Saints rebounded from that loss last Sunday with their 31-19 win over the Jets as a big 17.5-point favorite. New Orleans have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win. The Saints generated 412 yards of offense in that game — and they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Now New Orleans gets the Falcons back at home in the Superdome where they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 26 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. In his last four games at home against Atlanta, Drew Brees has thrown for 1358 passing yards along with seven TD passes — so don’t be surprised if the veteran QB has a big day this afternoon. The Saints have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against fellow NFC South opponents.

Atlanta (9-5) has won five of their last six games with their 24-21 win in Tampa Bay. The Falcons secondary showed vulnerabilities in that game by allowing the Buccaneers to pass for 289 yards in that contest — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Atlanta also limited Tampa Bay to only 84 rushing yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after allowing no more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Moving forward, the biggest difference between this year’s Falcons and the one that made the run to the Super Bowl might very well be dropped passes. Led by Julio Jones’ seven drops, Atlanta leads the NFL in dropped passes. Last year, the Falcons led the NFL with only sixteen dropped passed combined amongst their wide receivers, tight ends and running backs. Perhaps the Regression Gods return to this team was inevitable when considering that they led the NFL the prior year with 32 drops. Those drops are most likely cost the team first downs. Lastly, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. 25* NFC South Game of the Year is on the New Orleans Saints (116) minus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (115). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (104) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (103). Green Bay (7-7) were eliminated from the playoffs last week after their 34-21 loss in Carolina. Now with Aaron Rodgers placed on Injured Reserve with this being a lost season, it would be easy to dismiss the Packers in this contest. But this proud Green Bay franchise has the opportunity to play spoiler against their rivals in the Vikings while avenging a 23-10 loss in Minnesota on October 15th. And this will be the final home game at Lambeau Field this year. The Packers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games in the month of December. Green Bay has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 opportunities to avenge a loss to their opponents. And while the Packers have played their last two games on the road, they return home where they have covered the point spread in 40 of their last 62 games after playing their last two on the road. QB Brent Hundley has played significantly better before giving way to Rodgers return from Injured Reserve last week. Green Bay was 2-1 over Hundley’s last three starts with two of those games being on the road. The lone loss was a narrow 31-28 loss in Pittsburgh over the Steelers. In his last three starts, Hundley completed 65 of 94 passes for an impressive 69.1% completion percentage while tossing 6 touchdown passes to just one interception. He passed for 594 yards in those three games with a solid and improving 6.32 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt average. Huntley also added 103 rushing yards over those last three games on 15 carries. He has helped the Packers play their last four games Over the Total — and they have then covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 home games after playing at least three straight games Over the Total. Green Bay allowed 387 yards last week in Carolina — and they have covered the point spread in 39 of their last 57 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest.

Minnesota (11-3) has won nine of their last ten games with their 34-7 win over Cincinnati last week. While this team is playing very well with Case Keenum ranked as the top statistical passer in the NFL since Week 10, asking them to cover the point spread of more than a touchdown on the road is simply too much to ask. The Vikings defense has been a bit more penetrable when on the road where they are allowing 21.7 PPG along with 312.6 total YPG as compared to their 17.3 PPG and 283.9 total YPG for the season. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 44 of their last 71 games on the road as the favorite. The Vikings have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road with the Total set in the 38.5 to 42 point range. Furthermore, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of the last 10 games when playing on grass. Lastly, the Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 trips to Green Bay to play the Packers at Lambeau Field. 25* NFC North Game of the Year with the Green Bay Packers (104) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (103). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (332) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (331). Atlanta (8-5) enters this game after their triumphant 20-17 win over New Orleans two Thursdays ago. If you think this game looks eerily similar to last Monday night’s New England at Miami game, then you are not alone. The Falcons easily took care of the Buccaneers in the first meeting between these two teams back on November 26th in a 34-20 score in Atlanta. And with the rematch with the Saints in the Big Easy on deck this weekend, this Falcons team may be caught looking ahead. As it is, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 48 games after a home win against a divisional rival. And while Atlanta has won four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning at least three of their last four games. The Falcons held New Orleans to just 50 rushing yards last night — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. Atlanta did suffer a -2 net turnover margin to the Saints in that victory — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after having a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. Moving forward, the Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 32 games as the favorite.

Tampa Bay (4-9) has lost three straight games with their 24-21 loss to Detroit last week. The Buccaneers have not only failed to cover in those three games but they have only paid off bettors in two of their last seven contests. But Tampa Bay has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after losing at least three of their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. This Buccaneers team entered the season with high expectations. While this year has been ruined, they can still play the role of spoiler against a divisional rival which should motivate them to play well without the burden of high expectations. Tampa Bay did allow 434 yards to the Lions in that loss — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Buccaneers did hold Detroit to just 53 rushing yards — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing at least 75 rushing yards in their last  game. Expect Tampa Bay to be inspired by the Miami Dolphins who pulled the upset last Monday night at home as the underdog against another divisional rival that played in last February’s Super Bowl. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Year with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (332) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (331). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (325) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (326). Pittsburgh (11-2) has had this date circled since the league office put out the schedule as they are looking to avenge last year’s 36-17 loss in New England in the AFC Championship Game. But the timing for their opportunity for revenge could not be worse. For starters, the Steelers have gutted through two very difficult games against AFC North rivals. After the their very physical game against the Bengals two weeks ago, Pittsburgh rallied from an 11-point deficit in the 4th quarter to eke out a 39-38 victory over Baltimore. Recovering from this stretch is difficult enough. As it is, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. And in their last fifteen games after facing their arch rival in the Ravens, Pittsburgh has lost eight of these games straight-up. The mental and physical toll of those two games will be difficult to sustain now — especially with all the pressure this team feels to step up for this game given the words of head coach Mike Tomlin over the last few weeks. A big emotional letdown may happen for this team. While they have won eight straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning eight of their last ten games. Furthermore, this Steelers’ defense is far from at full strength. The season-ending injury to Ryan Shazier takes away their best defender of short and intermediate routes that this Patriots team absolutely thrives in with tight end Rob Gronkowski leading the way. In the seven quarters this team has played since losing Shazier in the Bengals game, Pittsburgh has allowed 48 points and 654 yards. Even worse, the Steelers have allowed their opponent to score a touchdown in all six of their Red Zone appearances since that Shazier injury — as opposed to not allowing a TD in thirteen of their previous twenty-five Red Zone defensive situations. Pittsburgh is also missing cornerback Joe Haden with his broken fibula who was their best cover man in their secondary. Over their last three games without Haden, the Steelers defense has allowed 28.7 PPG along with 357.7 total YPG. Haden is listed as questionable for this game but is not likely to be close to 100% even if takes the field which will leave the Pittsburgh pass defense still vulnerable after Joe Flacco torched them for 269 yards and a 7.69 Yards-Per-Attempt average. Pittsburgh has allowed their last two opponents to average 6.09 and 6.77 Yards-Per-Play without Haden and Shazier (for all but one quarter) — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing each of their last two opponents to average at least 6.0 YPP. On offense, Big Ben Roethlisberger did complete 44 of 66 passes for 506 yards against the Ravens last week — but the Steelers have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Pittsburgh is also 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. And while the Steelers have not covered the point spread in their last three contests, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least two straight games.

New England (10-3) should be angry and focused after they were flat on Monday in their 27-20 loss in Miami despite being a 10.5-point favorite. Casinos have been built on bettors leaving this Patriots team for dead in the Bill Belichick and Tom Brady era. New England is 42-18-1 ATS in their last 61 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 35-17-2 ATS in their last 54 games after a point spread setback. And I am not worried about the short week when considering that the Patriots are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games when playing on a Sunday after a game on Monday Night Football. Brady will be very happy to see Gronkowski return to the field after he served his suspension last week. New England managed only 248 yards against the Dolphins while only rushing the ball to 10 times for a measly 25 yards. The Patriots have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 31 games after failing to generate at least 350 yards in their last game. Brady should bounce-back as he thrives when facing a Mike Tomlin defense. When facing a team with Tomlin as either head coach or defensive coordinator, Brady has thrown 26 touchdown passes and only one interception — and that TD to interception ratio is a perfect 22-0 with Tomlin the head coach with the Steelers. Brady has won ten of his twelve career starts against Pittsburgh. Take last year’s AFC Championship Game where Brady faced a Cover-2 or Cover-3 zone defense in 39 of his 43 drop-backs. If the defense cannot create immediate pressure on Brady, he just picks the defense apart by finding voids in the zone defense. He completed 32 of 42 passes last year against the Steelers playing zone in 91% of his drop back passes. Like I said, Pittsburgh will really miss Joe Haden. On defense, this team is substantially better than they were in the first month of the season. Over their last three games, the Patriots are allowing only 15.7 PPG along with only 283.7 total YPG even after last week’s loss to the Dolphins where they allowed 362 yards (helped by having the football for over 36 minutes). New England’s seasonal defensive numbers or the analytics at sites like Football Outsiders simply fail to capture the quality of this unit at this point of the season (because they are unwilling and/or unable to the need for subjective analysis to their “objective” formulas that originate from subjective weighting systems). Lastly, the Patriots are very reliable in situations like this. New England has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have covered the point spread in 7 straight road games as the favorite. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in Pittsburgh against the Steelers. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. The Pats have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games with the Total set at least at 49.5. And in their last 6 games in the month of December, New England has covered the point spread in 5 of these games. The end. 25* AFC Game of the Year with the New England Patriots (325) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (326). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:25 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (306) plus (or minus) the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (305). Kansas City (7-6) was once the toast of the league early in the season when they rattled off five straight victories — and we were bearish on them then. But now most bettors have jumped off the ole bandwagon as they have lost six of their last eight games while also only covering the point spread twice over those last eight contests. But that is an overreaction as well — and this Chiefs team should be very feisty in this rare situation where they are a home underdog. To make things even saltier for this Kansas City team, they are underdogs at home to a Chargers team that they have defeated seven straight times. I like what I saw with this Kansas City team last week where they defeated the Raiders by a 26-15 score as a 4.5-point favorite. Dominating both sides of the line of scrimmage helped the Chiefs get back to their winning ways — perhaps the entire team responded to the message head coach Andy Reid sent when he suspended starting cornerback Marcus Peters for losing control the previous week when he tossed an official’s penalty flag into the crowd. Rookie Kareem Hunt broke out of his slump by rushing the ball 25 times for 116 yards while adding another 22 yards in the air. The Chiefs rushed for 165 yards against the Raiders which helped them control the clock for 36:40 minutes — and they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. KC held Oakland to just 70 rushing yards — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 90 yards in their last contest. Additionally, the Chiefs ave covered the point spread in 5 straight games after both a straight-up win and after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Kansas City has covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. And in their last 9 games against AFC West opponents, the Chiefs have covered the point spread 8 times.

25* NFL Network Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs plus (or minus) the points. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

TO BE CONTINUED -- please check back before this game begins for my full written Report before this game starts -- and I also reserve the right to raise the Star Value of this play (while you still get it at the discounted price by buying early). Given the high volume of plays I offer clients, I am providing an initial “abridged version” of the play to get them posted faster to accommodate my Daily, Weekly and Monthly subscribers so they can begin shopping lines. My research is detailed for our plays (which I do complete before endorsing a play) but it does take some time to write the more detailed Reports that clients have grown to count on. Thanks, Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (131) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (132). Baltimore (7-5) has won three straight games — as well as four of their last five contests — with their 44-20 win over Detroit last Sunday. This Ravens team is playing with confidence behind an outstanding defense and an improving offense that is finding themselves after being ravaged with injuries to start the season. Joe Flacco completed 23 of 36 passes against the Lions for 269 yards with two TD passes to lead the offense for 370 total yards. Baltimore is then 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Ravens defense has allowed only 400 yards only once this season — and that was their game in London with those unique travel situations. Baltimore will be playing their revenge on their minds after losing by a 26-9 score at home to the Steelers back on October 1st. Flacco has won two of his last three starts in Pittsburgh while leading his team to score 80 combined points in that contest. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against fellow AFC North opponents. The Ravens are also 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 4 games against teams with a winning record, Baltimore is 3-0-1 ATS.

Pittsburgh (10-2) comes off a physically and emotionally draining game with the Bengals last week which they survived by a 23-20 score in Cincinnati against the Bengals. And this team has a showdown with the Patriots on deck next Sunday which will likely determine the top seed in the AFC Playoffs. In fact, even if the Steelers lose this game, a win over New England next week likely gives them the tie-breaker over the Patriots. While that is not to say that Pittsburgh does not want to beat their arch rivals in this Baltimore team again — but it might impact how head coach Mike Tomlin views things if some players get hurt in this game. As it is, the Steelers are just 2-5-1 ATS when playing on a short week on a Sunday after a game on Monday Night Football. The Steelers are without some important players in this game as well. Star linebacker Ryan Shazier will not play for the rest of the season after he was carted off the field for his hit that injured his spine. The team is already without cornerback Joe Haden who has been dealing with a fibula injury for weeks — and his absence has exposed the Pittsburgh secondary to big plays that even Andy Dalton has been able to expose. Wide receiver Juju Smith-Schuster is also out for tonight as he is serving his one-game suspension for his hit and taunt on Vontaze Burfict in that game on Monday. The absence of Smith-Schuster takes away a big-play option for Big Ben Roethlisberger while his defense is giving up more and more of these plays. The Steelers have allowed nine passing plays of more than 40 yards which is 6th worst in the league this season. They have allowed their last two opponents to average 6.14 and 6.09 Yards-Per-Play in their last two games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after allowing at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. Roethlisberger does tend to struggle against the Ravens. In his last eleven starts, he has just a 4-7 record while tossing just 13 touchdowns and throwing just as many interceptions. And while Pittsburgh has won seven straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games along with failing to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after winning at least five straight games. With this being a very challenging sandwich situation for a team that has seemed to not meet their high expectations (despite their great record), expect this to be another close game for the Steelers. 25* NFL AFC North Game of the Year with the Baltimore Ravens (131) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (132). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (130) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (129). There will be plenty of emotion in the Meadowlands this afternoon as the proverbial Prodigal Son in Eli Manning returns to the starting lineup in a stadium that will be full of Eli jerseys in the wake of the firing of Giants’ head coach Ben McAdoo along with their general manager Jerry Reese. New York (2-10) has played two straight games on the road — as well as three of their last four contests. That long game at home was an upset win over the Chiefs. I look for this team to play inspired football under this situation — especially for interim head coach Steve Spagnola who represents Big Blue as the defensive coordinator for a Super Bowl Championship with Manning under center. This also is an opportunity for this team to play spoiler against the Cowboys while avenging a 19-3 loss in Dallas back on September 10th. The Giants look to bounce-back from their 24-17 loss at Oakland last week as a 10-point underdog. New York rushed for only 65 yards in that game after managing just 84 rushing yards in Washington the week before. But the Giants are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 tams after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in two straight games. Additionally, New York scored only 7 points in the first half of their game with the Raiders — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games after failing to score more than a touchdown in the first half of their last game. Furthermore, the Giants have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as the underdog.

Dallas (6-6) snapped their three-game losing streak two Thursdays ago with their 38-14 upset win over Washington as a 1.5-point underdog. We had the Cowboys in that game so we were very happy with those results. However, without Ezekiel Elliott and his dynamic skills as both a runner but also a pass catcher and a blocker out of the backfield, this is a limited football team that depends on their ability to win the Time of Possession battle to keep their defense off the field. The Cowboys managed just 275 yards — and they were outgained by the Skins. QB Dak Prescott completed only 11 of 22 passes for 102 yards in that contest — and they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after failing to pass for more than 150 yards in their last game. Dallas also covered the point spread for the first time in four games in that contest — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least two of their last three games. Furthermore, the Cowboys are a rough 10-23-1 ATS in their last 34 games played on field turf. Dallas is also 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games in the month of December — and a loss in this one would probably ruin their playoff chances. That is an ominous sign when considering that the visiting team has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of the last 7 meetings between these two teams. And in their last 6 trips to the Meadowlands to face the Giants, the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these games. 25* NFL NFC East Underdog of the Year with the New York Giants (130) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (129). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:25 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (102) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (101). Atlanta (7-5) faces a must-win situation as they find themselves outside the NFC Playoff picture after their 14-9 upset loss as a 2-point favorite to Minnesota on Sunday. But this Falcons team also had a 7-5 record at this point last season — and they, of course, went on to play in the Super Bowl. A tough strength of schedule has contributed to their disappointing results so far relative to their sky-high expectations. Atlanta has four NFC South opponents remaining to close out their schedule — so they still likely control their own destiny. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Atlanta has also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against NFC opponents — and they have also covered the point spread in five of their last seven games against fellow NFC South foes. Furthermore, the Falcons have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of December. And in their last 7 appearances on Thursday Night Football, Atlanta has covered the point spread in 6 of these games.

New Orleans (9-3) bounced-back from their 26-20 loss in Los Angeles to the Rams by defeating the Panthers last Sunday by a 31-21 score. The Saints have covered the point spread in ten of their last twelve games after covering that 5.5-point spread against Carolina — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after covering the point spread in at least six or seven of their last eight games. But there are some areas of concern for this team underneath their great run after dropping their first two games. Over their last three games, New Orleans has allowed 78 combined points as they are surrendering 26.0 PPG over that stretch. This Saints defense is middling against the run as they are 17th in the league by allowing their opponents to average 112.8 rushing YPG. The Falcons have a healthy Devonta Freeman back to join with Tevin Coleman in the backfield which should be able to exploit this Saints’ run defense. Furthermore, New Orleans has benefited from a favorable schedule since losing their first two games. While two games with Carolina were a challenge, they got to face the Packers with our Aaron Rodgers and the Lions completely beat up on both sides of the football along with non-playoff teams like Miami, Chicago, Tampa Bay, Buffalo and Washington. Lastly, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games played on Thursday Night Football. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year with the Atlanta Falcons (102) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (363) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (364). Indianapolis (3-8) looks to avenge a 27-0 shutout loss at home to these Jaguars back on October 22nd. The Colts have covered the point spread in 3 straight games when playing with revenge from a loss at home to their opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when avenging a loss at home by at least two touchdowns to their opponent. Additionally, Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a loss by at least three touchdowns against their opponents. Furthermore, the Colts have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games when avenging a loss where they failed to score more than 9 points — and this includes covering their last three games in that situation. Indianapolis has lost two straight games as well as five of their last six contests after their 20-16 loss to Tennessee last week as a 3-point underdog. The Colts have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a loss by 6 points or less. Indianapolis has also covered the point spread in a decisive 32 of their last 44 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread loss. The Colts have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after losing three of their last four games. Indy goes back on the road — but they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.

Jacksonville (7-4) looks to bounce-back from their 27-24 loss at Arizona last week despite being a 6-point favorite. While this team has an outstanding defense, the Achilles’ heel of this team continues to be the play of QB Blake Bortles. The embattled quarterback completed 19 of 33 passes but for only 160 yards with zero touchdown passes and an interception. Overall, the Jags produced only 128 passing yards in that game when taking into account lost yards from sacks — and the Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to pass for at leas 150 yards in their last game. Now after playing their last two games on the road, Jacksonville returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games. The Jaguars have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Furthermore, Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 38.5 to 42 point range. And in their last 6 games after playing their last two games on the road, the Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these contests. 25* NFL AFC South Underdog of the Year with the Indianapolis Colts (363) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (364). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (273) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (274). These are too many points to pass up in this situation — even with Aaron Rodgers not playing for the Packers. Pittsburgh (8-2) finally demonstrated the vast potential that many pundits feel they possess back on November 16th when they crushed the Colts by a 40-17 score as 7-point favorites. Yet they only outgained Indianapolis by 27 yards. It was a +4 net turnover margin that helped the Steelers dominate that game. But Pittsburgh has then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. And the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games when installed as a double-digit favorite. Additionally, Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in the month of November.

Green Bay (5-5) has something to prove after being shutout last week in a 23-0 blanking at the hands of Baltimore. That Ravens team has shut out two other teams this season — so the Packers do have some company in that regard. Green Bay has lost four of their last five games as they continue to struggle without Rodgers — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing you of their last five games. The Pack has only covered the point spread once in their last five games — but they have also covered the point spread in 33 of their last 50 games on the road after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. I am not sure how they will score points against this stout Steelers defense but that is the job of Super Bowl winning head coach and offensive coordinator Mike McCarthy. QB Brett Hundley three three interceptions in that loss so eliminating those mistakes will go a long way to keep Green Bay competitive in this game. Green Bay needs to commit to running the ball more as well after managing just 75 rushing yards against the Ravens. Remember, in their previous game in Chicago against a good Bears defense, the Packers ran the ball 37 times for 160 yards in a 23-16 upset victory. The Packers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. The Green Bay defense did limit Baltimore to only 58 rushing yards — and they are then 36-15-2 ATS in their last 53 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Lastly, the Packers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games as the underdog. While it certainly looks scary to take this Packers team without Rodgers against the mighty Steelers, it is the sound fundamental play for this situation. Lets embrace the Philadelphia 76ers and “trust the process.” 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month on the Green Bay Packers (273) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (270) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (269). Jacksonville (7-3) has won four games in a row after their 19-7 win in Cleveland last week as a 7.5-point favorite. The Jaguars have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of the last 5 games after a point spread victory. Jacksonville has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their last game. Defense has been leading the way for this team — they held the Browns to only 184 yards of offense. But the Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 200 yards in their last game. Furthermore, Jacksonville has failed to cover the points spread in 8 of their last 9 games against fellow NFC opponents.

25* NFL Game of the Month with Arizona plus the points. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

TO BE CONTINUED -- please check back before this game begins for my full written Report before this game starts -- and I also reserve the right to raise the Star Value of this play (while you still get it at the discounted price by buying early). Given the high volume of plays I offer clients, I am providing an initial “abridged version” of the play to get them posted faster to accommodate my Daily, Weekly and Monthly subscribers so they can begin shopping lines. My research is detailed for our plays (which I do complete before endorsing a play) but it does take some time to write the more detailed Reports that clients have grown to count on. Thanks, Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (112) minus the points versus the New York Giants (111). Washington (4-6) looks to bounce-back from their heartbreaking 34-31 overtime loss in New Orleans last Sunday. The Skins have rebounded to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a straight-up loss. That loss may have cost this Washington team a realistic shot of making the playoffs — but after being riddled with injuries all season, one consistent characteristic of this group which has been epitomized by QB Kirk Cousins has been their resiliency. Look for the benefit of playing this game at home on a short week to help this team tonight where they are outgaining their opponent by +60.4 net YPG. The Skins have played two straight high-scoring games where 65 and 68 combined points have been scored — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing at least two straight games where at least 30 combined points were scored. Washington did allow 375 passing yards last week to the Saints — but they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. And while the Skins have not covered the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then covered the point spread in 36 of their last 59 games after failing to cover the spread in five or six of their last seven games — including three straight. Washington has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in the month of November. The Skins have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. And they will be looking to avenge a 19-10 upset loss to the Giants back on January 1st despite being a 9.5-point favorite in that game.

New York (2-8) responded to personal meetings and pleas from head coach Ben McAdoo last week as they pulled a 12-9 upset in overtime as a 10-point underdog to Kansas City last week. That snapped a three-game losing streak but it looks to difficult for this team to keep up that level of intensity in a lost season when now playing on the road on a short week when they all would rather be celebrating Thanksgiving. As it is, the Giants have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win. New York has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. And while the Giants benefited from a +2 net turnover margin against the Chiefs, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a net turnover margin of +2 or more in their last game. That is not a good characteristic for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Furthermore, New York has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against fellow NFC opponents. Additionally, the Giants have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. Lastly, while the Skins are hit hard with injuries, the situation for McAdoo’s team may be worse with Justin Pugh and D.J. Fluker out on what was already a suspect offensive line headlining their rash of injuries on both sides of the football. 25* NFL NFC East Game of the Month with the Washington Redskins (112) minus the points versus the New York Giants (111). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (476) plus (or minus) the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (475). Seattle (6-3) has won five of their last six games with their 22-16 win at Arizona back on November 9th. This Seahawks team is battered with injuries with Richard Sherman and like Kam Chancellor likely out the season. But the team still has QB Russell Wilson and the group does have the benefit of having eleven days off to rest and prepare for this game. Seattle has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. And while the Seahawks have held their last two opponents to just 34 and 51 rushing yards in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 home games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in each of their last two games. Seattle is also 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games in the month of November. And in their last 11 games played on Monday Night Football, the Seahawks are 8-2-1 ATS.

Atlanta (5-4) has won two of their last three games after their defeated a depleted Cowboys team last week by a 27-7 score. Dallas is simply a weak football team without the services of running back Ezekiel Elliott and left tackle Tyron Smith — so that win needs to be taken with a few grains of salt. We have the Falcons in that game (our 25* NFC Game of the Month) so were very happy with their blowout victory — but Atlanta has then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Atlanta has also played failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Additionally, the Falcons held the Cowboys to just 233 yards of offense in that victory — and they have then gone 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. And in their last 5 games on the road, Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these games. Together, these team trends produce our specific 65-28-3 ATS combined angle for this situation. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month is with the Seattle Seahawks (476) plus (or minus) the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (470) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (469). Denver (3-6) has lost five straight games after their embarrassing 41-16 loss to New England last Sunday night. The Broncos were only outgained by 57 yards in that game which typically indicates a closer game — but everything went wrong for this Denver team that blew this game (and our big play with the Under) due to terrible special teams play. John Elway labeled his team “soft” after that game — and his calling out his personnel should motivate the team to erase their losing streak and get back into the winning column as they are all playing for their jobs. As it is, the Broncos have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss at home by at least three touchdowns. And while Denver has not covered the point spread in six of their last seven games, the Broncos have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Denver has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. And while the “No Fly Zone” defense allowed Tom Brady to pass for 266 yards in that game, the Broncos have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Despite giving up 92 points in their last two games, this Denver defense still ranks 5th in the NFL by allowing only 293.6 total YPG.

Cincinnati (3-6) has lost two games in a row themselves with their 24-20 loss at Tennessee last week. This is the Bengals’ third straight game on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games away from home. This Cincinnati team is struggling on both sides of the football. Over their last four games, the Bengals are averaging just 227.8 total YPG. On defense, Cincy allowed the Titans to generate 180 rushing yards en route to their 416 total yards. The Bengals have ten failed to her the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. Cincinnati was outrushed by 127 yards to Tennessee in that loss — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after getting outrushed by at least 75 yards. 3rd Down defense has also been an issue for this team as they have allowed their last three opponents to convert on 55.1% of their 3rd downs. This is a terrible spot for a team falling in the wrong direction on the road for a third consecutive week. 25* NFL AFC Game of the Month on the Denver Broncos (470) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (469). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (452) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (451). Chicago (3-6) looks to bounce-back from their 23-16 upset loss at home to Green Bay last week as a 4.5-point favorite. The Bears have rebounded to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread setback. They are getting better play out of rookie QB Mitch Trubisky who completed 21 of 35 passes for 297 yards and a TD pass against the Packers defense. In his last two starts at home in Soldier Field, Trubisky has averaged a 9.62 Yards-Per-Passing-Attempt ratio along with a Passer Rating of 99.7. Chicago remains a tough team when playing at home as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in five straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Bears have also covered then point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 8 games in the month of November, Chicago has covered the point spread 6 times.

Detroit (5-4) enters this game coming off their 38-24 victory over Cleveland last week. The Lions are then just 7-18-2 ATS in their last 27 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Detroit has not been very good against the Bears against which they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 encounters. QB Matthew Stafford is just 3-5 against the Bears in his eight starts in Chicago while passing for just nine TD passes but throwing 11 interceptions and getting sacked 21 times. To compound matters, the Lions are struggling to stop the run as they have allowed 136.8 rushing YPG in their last four games. Detroit will also be without defensive lineman Ziggy Ansah who is out with an injury for this game. Moving forward, the Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a losing record. And in Detroit’s last 14 games played on grass, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of these contests. Together, these team trends produce our specific 78-24-2 ATS combined angle for this situation. 25* NFL NFC North Underdog of the Month with the Chicago Bears (452) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (451). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:25 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (312) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (311). Pittsburgh (7-2) has won four straight games with their 20-17 win at Indianapolis last week as a 10.5-point favorite. The Steelers are then 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Now Pittsburgh returns home after playing their last two games on the road — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games on their home field at Heinz Field. Surprisingly, the Steelers have twice as many games on the road as they have at home where they will be playing just their fourth game this season. But Pittsburgh is outgaining their opponents by +132.3 net YPG at home this season based on a stout defense that is holding their opponents to only 243.0 total YPG. The Steelers boast an underrated defense that is allowing just 16.4 PPG along with only 284.4 total YPG which are both 2nd best in the league. Le’Veon Bell rushed for just 80 yards on 26 carries in that game as the Steelers managed just 88 yards in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. This team did flex their muscles on defense as they held the Titans to just 267 total yards of offense. Now Mike Tomlin’s team plays on a short week — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games on Thursday Night Football.

Tennessee (6-3) has also won four straight games with their 24-20 win over Cincinnati last week as a 4.5-point favorite. But the Titans are just 14-36-2 ATS in their last 52 games after a straight-up win. Tennessee generated 416 yards of offense in that contest — but they are then 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Titans did allow 255 passing yards in that victory — but they are then 8-20-3 ATS in their last 31 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Despite their 6-3 record, Tennessee is being outscored this season while only outgaining their opponents by +0.4 net YPG. They have played three of their last four games at home but now they go on the road where they are being outscored by -6.3 PPG while being outgained by -43.7 net YPG. The Titans offense has particularly struggled when away from home as they are scoring just 18.2 PPG on the road while averaging only 260.5 total YPG. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games on the road. And in their last 12 road games against teams with a winning record at home, the Titans have failed to cover the point spread 9 times. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (312) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (270) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (269). Atlanta (4-4) looks to bounce-back from their 20-17 upset loss on the road at Carolina last week as a 3-point underdog. The Falcons finally return home back to their new Mercedes-Benz Stadium after playing the last three games on the road. Julio Jones practiced this week and should be in better health for this team that really needs a signature win to rebuild their mojo. Despite last week’s loss to the Panthers, this Atlanta team is still in fine shape in the NFC playoff race with a 4-1 record against NFC opponents and five games remaining still against their NFC South rivals. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against fellow NFC rivals. They need to get their ground game going after rushing for just 53 yards last week. Atlanta has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. The Falcons defense surrendered 201 rushing yards to Carolina — but they are then 37-14-1 ATS in their last 52 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game.

Dallas (5-3) will be playing their first game without running back Ezekiel Elliott who finally begins serving his six-game suspension. I have no doubt that the other Cowboys players will step up in his absence. But it will be very difficult to replicate his productivity. In his 24 games with Dallas since turning pro, Elliott has averaged 24 touches per game for 130 yards from scrimmage while averaging one touchdown and seven first downs per game. Over their last five games, the Cowboys are converting 50% of their 3rd downs with Elliott playing a key role in that success. Not only is Elliott a good runner but he is a solid blocker against the pass rush while being a great receiver out of the backfield. Alfred Morris is a solid professional replacing him but he is simply not a receiving threat as he has caught only four balls wearing a Cowboys uniform after catching just six balls in his time with Dallas. Furthermore, the Cowboys have suffered a major injury with their All-Pro left tackle Tryon Smith out for this game. In general, bettors overreact to the impact of injured players (as I told clients worried about the injuries to the Ohio State linebackers yesterday morning). But injuries in the NFL are beginning to have more of an impact (and it is one of the reasons that I more often delay my final decisions on some of Sunday selections). The loss of Smith is devastating not only because he is an All-Pro but because his backup Chaz Green is kind of a disaster — and he is being asked to play left tackle which is a far cry from his normal position as a backup guard. This Cowboys’ team entered the year without the same depth on offensive line as they enjoyed last season. Dallas comes off a triumphant 28-17 win over Kansas City last week. The Cowboys (with Elliott) generated 375 yards against the Chiefs defense — but they are then 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while Dallas allowed 255 passing yards last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Lastly, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 road games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. 25* NFL NFC Game of the Month with the Atlanta Falcons (270) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (455) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (456). Tampa Bay (2-5) will be playing with desperation this afternoon after they were upset last week against another divisional rival at home against Carolina as a 1.5-point favorite. The Buccaneers have lost four in a row with critics blaming the old canard regarding this team lacking an “identity” on offense. A healthier Jameis Winston will help as he has been banged up over the last few weeks. The good news is that Winston has practiced more this week than he has since getting injured and he claims he is feeling better. Tampa Bay has rebounded to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a double-digit loss at home. The Buccaneers have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Tampa Bay also needs to get their running game going with Doug Martin back from his suspension. The Bucs have not rushed for more than 90 yards in each of their last four contests — and they have then covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in at least three straight games. Tampa Bay is 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games in the month of November. The Buccaneers are also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 30 road games after losing five or six of their last seven contests, Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of these contests.

25* NFC South Game of the Month with Tampa Bay plus the points. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

TO BE CONTINUED -- please check back before this game begins for my full written Report before this game starts -- and I also reserve the right to raise the Star Value of this play (while you still get it at the discounted price by buying early). Given the high volume of plays I offer clients, I am providing an initial “abridged version” of the play to get them posted faster to accommodate my Daily, Weekly and Monthly subscribers so they can begin shopping lines. My research is detailed for our plays (which I do complete before endorsing a play) but it does take some time to write the more detailed Reports that clients have grown to count on. Thanks, Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (273) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (274). Denver (3-3) looks to get back to their winning ways tonight in an important divisional game. Fifteen days ago, the Broncos were generally considered one of the top five teams in the NFL. But after their 23-10 loss to the Giants for Sunday Night Football, Denver followed that up with a listless 21-0 loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 1-point favorite. Look for this team to rebound with one of their strongest efforts of the season. The Broncos have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after suffering two straight double-digit losses. Denver has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a loss by at least three touchdowns to a divisional rival. And in their last 25 games after a straight-up loss, the Broncos have covered the point spread 17 times. Denver has certainly spent time on the offensive side of the football after being shut out last week. Defense is not a problem as this team leads the NFL by holding their opponents to just 258.1 total YPG which is the best mark in the league. This defense is also very familiar with Andy Reid, Alex Smith and this Chiefs’ offense. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 trips to Kansas City. Furthermore, Denver has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog.

Kansas City (5-2) looks to bounce-back from their 31-30 loss in Oakland as a 1-point favorite for last week’s Thursday Night Football. The Chiefs surrendered 505 yards of offense to the Raiders in that game as they continued to struggle and defense with an aging group that really misses Eric Berry who suffered a season-ending Achilles’ injury. Kansas City is 30th in the league by allowing 396.3 total YPG — and this porous defense has actually made the Chiefs get outgained by -3.9 net YPG which betrays their winning record. Kansas City is winning games in large measure because they are not turning the ball over - in fact, they have not committed a single turnover since their first play of the season where Kareem Hunt fumbled the football in New England. That is simply not sustainable and helps to make the Chiefs an unreliable favorite laying around a touchdown against a desperate divisional rival. As it is, Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Chiefs have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games are allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Lastly, Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45 point range. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Denver Broncos (273) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (259) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (260). The team with the best record in the league faces off against the team that is tied for the worst record in the NFL — and the price is high for bettors to take this Philadelphia team (6-1) coming off a flashy win in front of a national audience on Monday with their 34-24 win over Washington. Let this line continue to the 13 or perhaps even the 14 point range if you can before kickoff. The Eagles suffered two devastating injuries with left tackle Jason Peters and linebacker Jordan Hicks suffering season-ending injuries in that game with the Skins — and it will be difficult to replace those two players that played such a vital role in the foundation of their offensive line and front seven on defense. QB Carson Wentz has been impressive — but it is a warning sign that he led the team in rushing on Monday with his 63 yards on eight attempts. The Eagles have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing on Monday Night Football. Philly does stay at home this week but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 5 games against teams with a losing record overall, the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of these games.

San Francisco (0-7) suffered their worst loss of the season last week with their 40-10 loss at home to Dallas as a 6.5-point underdog. If there was a silver lining in that loss for head coach Mike Shanahan, it is that he certainly had the attention of his team this week in practice. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread setback. San Francisco may still be winless but they have very competitive in most of their games. In their previous five games before last week, they lost by just a combined 13 points. Five net close losses of eight points or less is brutal — and, ironically, it was the Eagles 0-6 record in games decided by one scoring possession last season that made some pundits so bullish on them this year. The offense looks a bit crisper under rookie QB C.J. Beathard who completed 22 of 38 passes for 235 yards while adding 30 rushing yards and a TD on the ground. The learning curve is sharp for the former Iowa QB right now. The 49ers go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. And in their last 5 games against fellow NFC opponents, San Francisco has covered the point spread 4 times. 25* NFL NFC Game of the Month with the San Francisco 49ers (259) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (260). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (477) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (478). The Eagles are the latest Golden Boys for BFL pundits are they upset Carolina for Thursday Night Football back on October 12th. We had Philadelphia in that game — but let’s go against them in this one. Washington (3-2) will be playing with revenge on their mind in this rematch of their 30-17 loss at home to the Eagles back on September 17th. The Skins have covered the point spread in 3 straight games when playing with revenge. They look to build off their 26-24 win over the 49ers last Sunday. Washington’s defense has been a pleasant surprise this season — and they held the 49ers to just 85 rushing yards in that game. The Skins have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing 90 rushing yards in their last game. Washington is averaging 407.3 YPG on offense over their last three games — and they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after averaging at least 400 YPG in their last three contests. Now the Skins go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games. Washington has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog in the 45.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record, the Skins have covered the point spread 7 times.

Philadelphia (5-1) did pull off the upset last week in their 28-23 win at Carolina as a 3-point underdog. The Eagles won that game despite losing the first down battle by a 23 to 15 margin. Philly has scored at least 26 points in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after scoring at least 25 points in three straight games. Run defense has been a key to the Eagles this season as they have not allowed more than 80 rushing yards in four straight games. But not only has Philadelphia then failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after not allowing 100 or more rushing yards in three straight games but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after not allowing 100 or more rushing yards in four straight games.

25* NFC West Game of the Month with the Washington Redskins (477) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

TO BE CONTINUED -- please check back before this game begins for my full written Report before this game starts -- and I also reserve the right to raise the Star Value of this play (while you still get it at the discounted price by buying early). Given the high volume of plays I offer clients, I am providing an initial “abridged version” of the play to get them posted faster to accommodate my Daily, Weekly and Monthly subscribers so they can begin shopping lines. My research is detailed for our plays (which I do complete before endorsing a play) but it does take some time to write the more detailed Reports that clients have grown to count on. Thanks, Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (461) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (462). Tampa Bay (2-3) has lost two straight games — and three of their last four games — with their 38-33 loss at Arizona last week as a 2.5-point favorite. The score is not indicative of just how awful the Buccaneers played in that upset loss. Expectations were very high for this team entering the season — but this team is in deep trouble to find themselves out of the playoff hunt in the very competitive NFC South. This is a desperate team much like the Raiders were on Thursday. Expect one of the best games of the season from this Tampa Bay team. The Bucs have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after suffering an upset loss as a road favorite. Tampa Bay has also covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a contest where at least 70 combined points were scored. It does look like Jameis Winston will make the start in this game after being knocked out of that game with the Cardinals. Even if he cannot go (or finish), backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is capable of winning games on the road. Besides, it will need to be a complete team effort to save this season on the brink for the Bucs. They are getting back linebacker Kwan Alexander for this game to help a defense that surrendered 432 yards last week. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

Buffalo (3-2) looks to bounce-back from their 20-16 loss at Cincinnati as a 3-point underdog. The Bills are playing inspired football behind first-year head coach Sean McDermott as they had won (and covered the point spread) in their previous two games in upset wins over Denver and Atlanta. But McDermott has inherited a franchise that has failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 70 of their last 110 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three contests. Buffalo has also failed to the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning two of their last three games. And in their last 7 games after a point spread loss, the Bills have failed to cover the point spread 5 times. The team is only averaging 165 passing YPG behind QB Tyrod Taylor which puts plenty of onus on their ground game. But even with LeSean McCoy in the backfield, this team is averaging just 3.4 Yards-Per-Carry. Even with their winning record, Buffalo is being outgained by -51.2 net YPG. The Buccaneers, on the other hand, are being outgained by just -21.4 net YPG. Expect a very close game with Tampa Bay playing with determination given the desperate straits they are in. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (461) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (462). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:25 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Oakland Raiders (302) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (301). My initial thoughts entering Week Seven this week of the NFL season is that I would like the Chiefs playing on a short week coming off their loss to the Steelers (where we had a big play on Pittsburgh). But upon my deep dive into this situation, we want to be investing in this Oakland team (2-4) that will be playing with desperation in a season-defining game for them. Besides, it seems like most of the betting world is following the logic of taking Kansas City off a loss against a Raiders team who have lost four in a row — so let’s be Happy Contrarians with this game as there are still plenty of reasons to consider this Chiefs team overvalued (more on that below). The prospects of losing their fifth game this season and falling three games behind the Chiefs in the AFC West standings might be an insurmountable hole for Jack Del Rio’s team to overcome. And when considering that Oakland lost a key game to Kansas City last December 8th by a 21-13 score, this is a “circle the wagons” moment. The Raiders have lost four straight while failing to meet point spread expectations in four straight games after their 17-16 loss to the Chargers as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Most observers expected Oakland to take a step or two back from their 12-4 campaign last year even if they were a better football team than last year’s group. But this has been a very unfortunate start for this team that had three of their first four games on the road just before Derek Carr suffered his back injury that kept him out of their home game with the Ravens. Carr returned last week but was limited in completing 21 of 30 passes but for just 171 yards. Then again, Oakland enjoyed the lead for most of that game before the Chargers nailed a field goal as time expired to steal that game. Expect this team to embrace the physical style of football preferred by Del Rio and win this game at the line of scrimmage while taking advantage of the additions they made in the offseason to combat this Chiefs team. That means plenty of Beast Mode by Marshawn Lynch and the tough Raiders offensive line. And expect immediate dividends to be paid from their acquisition of Navarro Bowman who was the leading tackler for the 49ers before they released him this week in a salary cap move with them still winless this season. Bowman is just what the doctor ordered for this team at middle linebacker. Except a strong effort from this team as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least two straight games — and they have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after playing a game against a divisional rival.

Kansas City (5-1) looks to bounce-back from their 19-13 loss to Pittsburgh last Sunday despite being a 3.5-point favorite in that game. There are concerns on both sides of the ball that comes out of that game. The Chiefs allowed 194 rushing yards to the Steelers and 439 total yards of offense for a unit that is really beginning to miss Eric Berry who suffered a season-ending injury to begin the year. KC has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 350 yards of offense — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after giving up at least 150 rushing yards. The Chiefs defense ranks 29th in the NFL by giving up 378.2 total YPG — and they rank 24th and 27 in run and pass defense respectively. Furthermore, KC managed only 28 rushing yards in that contest — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to rush for at least 30 rushing yards in their last game. Perhaps the injury to starting center Mitch Morse is beginning to negatively impact this offense — and the fact that running back Charcandrick West is going through the concussion protocol is not helping matters for this contest. Additionally, this Chiefs team has been very fortunate with turnovers as they have not committed even one since that opening night with in New England. KC has won the turnover battle in each of their last five games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning the turnover battle for at least five straight games. Lastly, Andy Reid’s Chiefs’ teams do not respond well after being dominated in their previous contest. Kansas City lost the first down battle by a 12 to 23 margin while only having the football for 23:21 of that game. The Chiefs have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a game where they did not have the football for at least 26 minutes and failed to gain at least thirteen first downs. 25* NFL AFC West Game of the Month with the Oakland Raiders (302) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (269) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (270). Pittsburgh (3-2) was embarrassed last week at home in a 30-9 loss to the Jaguars despite being a 7.5-point favorite. In the post-game press conference, Ben Roethlisberger went so far to say that he wonders if he “Maybe I don’t have it anymore.” I suspect that was Big Ben being sheepish and perhaps making a subtle attack on his entire team. He has been outspoken about the culture in the locker room — and perhaps he is inching closer to retirement. But he is also a competitor — and I expect he to lead this team that had such high expectations to begin the season to go out and play their best game of the season against the only remaining undefeated team in the NFL in these Chiefs. As it is, the Steelers have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss. Big Ben did throw for 312 yards in that game — but he also threw a career high five interceptions. Expect Roethlisberger to take responsibility for those miscues by raising his level of play in this game to prove that he is not ready for the retirement home just yet. The Steelers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a game where they generated at least 350 yards of offense. They need to run the ball more after Le’Veon Bell rushed only 15 times for 47 yards. Bell has suffered a sow start as he seems to get into game shape after his contract holdout. But he looked in prime form two weeks ago when he ran the ball 35 times for 144 yards with two touchdowns against the Ravens tough defense. Moving forward, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 32 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home, the Steelers are 22-8-2 ATS.

Kansas City (5-0) remained undefeated last Sunday with their 42-34 win in Houston. But the defense is showing signs of wear after giving up 392 yards in that game. I do expect the season-ending injury to the emotional leader of their defense, Eric Berry, to impact the effectiveness of that unit. The Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Kansas City has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Chiefs averaged 6.25 Yards-Per-Play against the Texans which is actually the least efficient they have been on offense in their last four games. It has been a downward trend in YPP efficiency since they torched the Eagles’ defense at an 8.66 YPP clip in Week Two of the season. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after average 6.0 YPP in for straight games. The Chiefs return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games with the Total set in then 42.5 to 49 point range. Lastly, this KC team will still have the memory in the back of their mind of their 18-16 loss at home to the Steelers in the playoffs last January 15th. While the revenge angle may be tempting to some, I look for that memory to inspire confidence in this Steelers team that needs a signature victory to re-establish their own momentum. 25* NFL AFC Underdog of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (269) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (270). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:25 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (104) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (103). Carolina (4-1) looks due for a big letdown after scoring their second-straight upset victory with their 27-24 win in Detroit as a 2-point underdog. That win came on the heels of their upset win on the road in New England the week before. But the Panthers are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight-up victory — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread win. Cam Newton has been outstanding over his last two games by completing 26 of 33 passes for 355 yards against the Lions. He is completing over 77% over his last two games — but that may mean the Complacent (and bad) Cam may be about to make a reappearance when playing on a short week. Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. And while they held the Lions to just 242 yards of offense, the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after holding their last opponent to 250 or fewer yards. Carolina does not hold much of a home field advantage as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home. And in their last 8 appearances on Thursday Night Football, the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread 6 times.

Philadelphia (4-1) is a consistent team from week-to-week that should be prepared to play well on a short week. They might have the best combination of offensive and defensive lines in the league. The Eagles also lead the NFL in Time of Possession. QB Carson Wentz is emerging into a star in this league while veteran running back LeGarrette Blount has averaged at least 7 Yards Per Touch over his last two games. And while the Panthers are converting on an incredible 50% of their 3rd downs, Philly actually tops that number with their 53.4% 3rd down conversion rate. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow NFC opponents. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Philadelphia Eagles (104) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (103). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (474) plus the point(s) versus the Kansas City Chiefs (473). Houston (2-2) is brimming with confidence right now after their 57-14 win over Tennessee last week. The Texans have an elite defense (#1 in Total Defense last season even with J.J. Watt missing most of the season) — but they now look like they have found their long awaited answer at quarterback with rookie Deshaun Watson under center. The former Clemson National Champion completed 25 of 34 passes for 283 yards with four TD passes and he added another 24 yards on the ground with another TD. Watson’s mobility will give the Chiefs problems tonight. Kansas City has already seen Carson Wentz rush for 55 yards and Kirk Cousins scramble for 38 key yards — and neither of them are as mobile as Watson. Overall, the Texans generated 445 yards of offense against the Titans last week — and they are then 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Houston is also 11-5-1 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Texans stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

Kansas City (4-0) pulled out a 29-20 victory over Washington on Monday Night Football. With that miracle back door cover coming from the fumble recovery for a touchdown on the last play of the game, the Chiefs have now covered three straight games while laying the points. But that could signal a big emotional letdown for this team as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread as the favorite in their previous three games. Kansas City has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing on a short week after an appearance on Monday Night Football. The offense has been dynamic with Alex Smith and company averaging 8.67 Yards-Per-Play in their opening game against the Patriots and following that up with 9.45, 6.76 and 6.31 YPP marks over their next three games. But the Chiefs have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 16 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in each of their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP for four straight games. The Chiefs lost to the Texans last year by a  19-12 with Brock Osweiler under center for Houston. Brock Osweiler! 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month on the Houston Texans (474) plus the point(s) versus the Kansas City Chiefs (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (472) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (471). Dallas (2-2) looks to bounce-back from a 35-30 upset loss at home to the Los Angeles Rams last Sunday. Don’t blame QB Dak Prescott for that loss as he completed 20 of 36 passes for 252 yards and three TD passes against the Rams defense. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Dallas also ran the ball for 189 yards behind Ezekiel Elliott who rushed for 85 yards on 21 carries. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after rushing for at least 175 yards in their last game. Elliott running the ball on first down should put Dallas in the position to win this game. In their two games against the Packers last season, Elliott ran the ball 32 times on first down where he accumulated 216 of the 285 rushing yards he generated against the Green Bay defense. Generating yardage on first down was the straw that stirred the drink for the Cowboys offense last season. They ran the ball 59.4% of the time on first down last year and averaged 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry on those plays which set up short yardage for second and third downs. This took plenty of pressure off Prescott and helped offensive coordinator Scott Linehan be more flexible with their play-calling since they were not in long yardage situations. Look for Dallas to get back to this winning formula against the Packers. It was a -2 net turnover margin that played a big role in their loss to the Rams last week. When the Cowboys get their offense going, they are tough to beat. Dallas had 440 total yards last week — and they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of October.

Green Bay (3-1) enters this rematch of the NFC Divisional Playoffs last year off their 35-14 win over the Bears back on September 28th. The Packers dominated that game because of a +4 net turnover margin after the Bears lost two fumbles and threw two interceptions which helped them go to half time with a 21-7 lead. Those mistakes by Chicago covered up for a host of injuries that Green Bay was dealing with. The Packers’ offensive line situation remains muddled with both David Baktiari and Bryan Bulaga still questionable for this afternoon’s game which may mean that they will have to rely on the 5th and 6th tackles on their original depth chart to start this game. The team will also be without their starting running back Ty Montgomery. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning three of their last four games. And in their last 7 trips to Dallas, the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of those games. Of course, Green Bay upset the Cowboys in that playoff game in AT&T Stadium last January by a 34-31 score in an instant classic — but look for Dallas to avenge that loss amidst criticism that they entered the season overrated. 25* NFL NFC Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (472) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (259) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (260). Tennessee (2-1) earned a nice win at home last week in their 33-27 win over Seattle as a 2.5-point favorite. But rather than this being a dominant  victory, the Titans were fortunate that the bevy of Seahawks mistakes overwhelmed their 24-21 advantage in first downs as well as being outgained by 13 net yards after surrendering 433 yards to what had been a stagnant Seattle offense. Tennessee is then 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games after a straight-up win. The Titans are considered quite fondly right now in many circles despite not playing in the playoffs in recent history — or even winning a game that has playoff implications. Remember that last year, their playoff hopes were dashed in Week 16 of the regular season when they were crushed by the lowly Jaguars in Jacksonville. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Titans now face the (relative) blue bloods of the AFC South in the Houston Texans — and they have lost seven of their last nine meetings with the Texans. Furthermore, Tennessee is 4-21-3 ATS in their last 28 games against teams with a losing record. Additionally, keep in mind that teams that come off a game with the physical Seahawks over the years tend to suffer big letdowns.

Houston (1-2) is a proud organization with an underrated head coach that gets the most out of their talent. Bill O’Brien knows that his team needs to win their home games against divisional rivals — so there will be a sense of urgency for them knowing that losing this contest will put them in grave danger already of winning the AFC South. The Texans are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games against rival AFC South foes. It does appear the team has the answer at quarterback in rookie Deshawn Watson who completed 22 of 33 passes for 301 yards and two TD passes while adding another 41 yards on the ground in their narrow 36-33 loss in New England last week. Overall, the Texans outgained the Patriots in their building by a 417 to 396 margin which is quite an accomplishment. Houston is then an impressive 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. This team becomes quite dangerous if their offense can begin to come close matching their elite defense that was tops in the NFL last year in yards allowed even without the services of the injured J.J. Watt. The linebacker has not put up gaudy stats just yet but O’Brien claims that his presence on field has been impactful on every single play this season. This will be Watson’s first start at home after playing well in his first two starts in hostile environments — and the Texans have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. 25* NFL AFC South Underdog of the Month with the Houston Texans (259) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (260). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 AM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (252) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (251). New Orleans (1-2) got off the mat from an 0-2 start by traveling to Carolina to shock the Panthers by a 34-13 score as a 5.5-point underdog. But the Saints may be primed for an emotional letdown after their victory over a divisional rival. The disruption of the travel to London may exacerbate a lack of focus that the Ravens’ experienced last week. As it is, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The defense stepped up out of nowhere to hold the Carolina offense to use 288 yards of offense in that game. But after allowing 1025 total yards of offense in their first two games, their performance last week may speak more to the sad state of the Panthers’ offense with rumors that quarterback Cam Newton has deteriorated physically. The Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points. And in their last 13 games as the favorite, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of these games.

Miami (1-1) looked awful last week in their 20-6 loss in New York against the Jets despite being a 5.5-point favorite. In hindsight, it appears that the toll that all the travel that has impacted this team given Hurricane Irma finally drained this team. But remember that this team played well in their opening game that resulted in a 19-17 win in Los Angeles against the Chargers the previous week. While this team has received no favors now by having to travel to London after all this, these games across the proverbial pond can be transformative for some teams. As it is, the Dolphins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after suffering a double-digit upset loss on the road as the favorite. Head coach Adam Gace labeled his team’s play as “garbage” — so expect him to have lit a fire under his group. I do think this team is likely to improve on offense with Jay Cutler under center given his strong arm and experience working with Gace in both their tours of duty in Chicago. Miami has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when played on grass — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field. Look for the Dolphins to get their running game cranking as they ran the ball only 15 times for 30 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to rush for more than 90 yards in their last contest. Furthermore, Miami has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against NFC opponents. 25* NFL London Calling Game of the Year on the Miami Dolphins (252) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (251). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (481) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (482). Tennessee (1-1) flexed their muscles last week by crushing the Jaguars in Jacksonville last Sunday. This Titans team looked like the group that won a Super Bowl a few seasons ago and was just that goal-line interception away from winning twice in recent history and cementing themselves as a dynasty team. Oh wait, that’s not Tennessee? That actually describes their opponents in the Seahawks under head coach Pete Carroll? Then why has the line moved from Seattle opening as a small road favorite to now the Titans laying up to a field goal in some spots? This Tennessee was hyped up a ton during the offseason before losing by 10 points at home in their opening game against the Raiders. This remains an unproven team at home that has lost sixteen of their last twenty-two games in Nashville. The Titans are 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 games at home which includes failing to cover the point spread in ten of their last sixteen games at home. Furthermore, the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games off a win on the road. Additionally, Tennessee are just 9-25-1 ATS in their last 35 games after a game where they scored at least 30 points. And while the Titans did rush for 131 yards last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after rushing for at least 150 yards.

Seattle (1-1) has struggled with their offensive line this season. They rebounded from a loss on the road in Green Bay with a 12-9 win over San Francisco last week despite being a 13.5-point favorite. The Seahawks have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. And while Seattle allowed 159 rushing yards in their last contest, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 150 yards in their last game. Offense has been an issue for this team as they have only scored 21 points in two games this year. But the Seahawks have ten covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after failing to score more than 14 points in two straight games. Seattle has also covered the point spread in a decisive 41 of their last 60 games after failing to score more than 17 points in each of their last two games. Lastly, the Seahawks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against NFC opponents. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the  Seattle Seahawks (481) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (473) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (474). New Orleans (0-2) will be playing with a sense of desperation having lost their first two games with their 36-20 loss at home to New England last week. Expect a strong bounce-back effort from this veteran team led by Drew Brees. The Saints have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Defense remains a problem for this team that surrendered an incredible 555 yards to the Patriots. There is some reasons for optimism given what the Bills’ head coach Sean McDermott did to Cam Newton last week after accumulating inside knowledge on the quarterback in his time as the Panthers’ defensive coordinator. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after allowing 30 points in their last game. The Saints have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. And don’t worry about New Orleans being away from the Superdome as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, the Saints have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against fellow NFC South opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against the Panthers.

Carolina (2-0) managed only 255 yards of offense last week as they eked out a 9-3 win over the Bills. That Buffalo defense did sack Newton six times in what could become the blueprint to slow down the former Heisman Trophy winner — stay tuned. Newton will certainly miss his security blanket in tight end Greg Olsen who suffered a foot injury that will put him on Injured Reserve. Expect a letdown here and a close game against a divisional rival. The Panthers are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up win. Carolina has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 14 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after holding their last opponent to 14 or less points. Furthermore, the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. And in their last 6 games against NFC South foes, Carolina has failed to cover the point spread 5 times. 25* NFL NFC South Game of the Month with the New Orleans Saints (473) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing the New York Giants (290) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (289). New York (0-1) will be playing with a sense of desperation tonight having lost their opening game of the season in a 19-3 loss in Dallas as a 6-point underdog. Less than 13% of the teams that start the season with two losses have gotten off the mat to make the playoffs — so this is an important contest for the Giants that entered that contest with the Cowboys with deep playoff aspirations. New York has bounced-back to go 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, while the Giants managed only 233 yards of offense last week, they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to generate at least 250 yards in their last contest. Dallas won the yardage battle in that Sunday Night by a 159 net yards. But not has New York covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after being outgained by at least 100 yards in their last contest but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after being outgained by at least 150 yards. The Giants will likely have the services of Odell Beckham tonight as he has been upgraded to probable despite his leg injury. His presence on the field not only helps Eli Manning by giving him his favorite target but it also will likely compel defenses to provide only single coverage against their new wide receiver Brandon Marshall. New York returns home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games. And in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record, the Giants are 5-2-1 ATS.

Detroit (1-0) opened their season at home with a 35-23 victory over the Cardinals last Sunday as a 2.5-point underdog. The Lions benefited from a -3 net turnover in that game with their defense forcing four turnovers. But Detroit has then failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after enjoying at least a +3 met turnover margin. The Lions are also a rough 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Balance on offense remains a concern for this team as they threw 41 passes in that contest while rushing the ball just 27 times despite winning by double-digits. Moving forward, Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when going on the road. Furthermore, the Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against NFC opponents. And in their last 7 games in the month of September, Detroit has failed to cover the point spread 5 times. Lastly, this Lions team is a pathetic 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games in the second week of the season. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the New York Giants (290) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (289). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (208) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (207). Atlanta (1-0) returns home to host a rematch with the Green Bay Packers who they last crushed when these two teams met by a 44-21 score in the NFC Conference Championships last January. The Falcons will also be playing their first game in the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium so except an electric atmosphere for this nationally televised game. Atlanta was listless last week in their 23-17 win on the road in Chicago as a 6.5-point favorite. But the Falcons have then rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Atlanta has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win. Furthermore, while the Falcons offense did generate 372 yards of offense, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And in their last 7 games in the month of September, Atlanta has covered the point spread 5 times.

TO BE CONTINUED -- please check back before this game begins for my full written Report before this game starts -- and I also reserve the right to raise the Star Value of this play (while you still get it at the discounted price by buying early). Given the high volume of plays I offer clients, I am providing an initial “abridged version” of the play to get them posted faster to accommodate my Daily, Weekly and Monthly subscribers so they can begin shopping lines. My research is detailed for our plays (which I do complete before endorsing a play) but it does take some time to write the more detailed Reports that clients have grown to count on. Thanks, Frank.

At 8:25 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (102) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (101). Houston (0-1) had the opportunity to rally the entire city around them in the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey last Sunday as they played on their home field. Instead, the Texans embarrassed themselves with a 29-7 loss to the Jaguars in a game where they managed only 203 yards of offense. A -4 net turnover margin did not help matters but the biggest problem was their offensive line. The holdout of left tackle Duane Brown concerned me last week but I concluded that Houston was satisfied they could manage without their best lineman. Instead, Texans’ quarterbacks were sacked a whopping ten times in that game without Brown. As if playing on a short-week was bad enough, the Texans simply do not have an answer for this situation as they will not be signing Brown before the game this week. In fact, head coach Bill O’Brien’s decision to bench his boy Tom Savage for rookie Deshaun Watson was less about Savage’s play and more about Watson being a bit more mobile in lieu of continued poor play from the offensive line. Watson will start this week — if his bum ankle will allow him to go. That is a very tough assignment for a rookie QB on a short week. The Texans are a M*A*S*H unit right now with nine players missing practice on Monday on this short week — and five players in the concussion protocol that will keep them from playing on Thursday. All three of Houston’s tight ends are injured which may leave them empty at this position. This is all bad news for a franchise that has failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games played on a Thursday. The Texans have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. It might be tempting to expect Houston to rally around each other given this adversity after such a disappointing effort. However, that is not the personality of this team as they have not only failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. And in their last 4 games against teams with a losing record, the Texans have failed to cover the point spread in all 4 games.

Cincinnati (0-1) was one of the other NFL teams last week that was completely hapless in their opening game after a 20-0 loss at home to divisional rival Baltimore. We had both the Texans and the Bengals last week so some at the Hollywood Sports headquarters have dubbed this Thursday contest the Hollywood Sports Toilet Bowl. Cincinnati should bounce-back from a bad effort last week as they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a double-digit loss at home. The Bengals have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Being at home on this short week should be a significant advantage for this team looking to get back to their winning ways. And facing the indignity of getting shut out last week should particularly motivate the Cincy offensive unit led by quarterback Andy Dalton who has been derided all week after throwing four interceptions. Overcoming a -5 net turnover margin is nearly impossible. Look for the Bengals to get back to running the football later the offense managed only 221 yards of offense overall. Cincinnati is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game. On the plus side, the defense did play well for the Bengals as they held the Ravens to just 268 yards of offense. Finally, veteran head coach Marvin Lewis usually gets his team to play well in the second week of the season as his Cincinnati teams are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 2. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Cincinnati Bengals (102) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM EST on Sunday, February 5th, we will be playing the New England Patriots (101) minus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (102). IThe Championship experience of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady should play a key role in this contest. These two lead a group that is determined to once again hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy perhaps for the last time while enjoying the sweet taste of revenge against commissioner Roger Goodell for Deflate-gate. Furthermore, Belichick is the master in coaching defenses to take away the best offensive threat from an opponent to make them uncomfortable — and he has two weeks to scheme against this Falcons team. Expect the X-Factor for the Patriots to be LeGarrette Blount who had his best game of the season against the Steelers in their 36-17 victory. Blount’s physical running can help New England control the line of scrimmage and the clock while keeping the Falcons’ offense off the field. New England also enjoys the superior defense that holds their opponents to 15.7 PPG and just 326.6 total YPG.

Atlanta (13-5) has speed to burn on offense — as the Packers found out in the Falcons’ 44-21 victory in the NFC Championship Game. But the Falcons’ score -2.5 PPG less along with gaining -41.2 YPG less when playing on the road. The Atlanta defense also is much less potent as they allow 24.8 PPG along with 367.5 total YPG. And despite all the talk of the continued improvement of this unit as the season went on, they still allows 24.3 PPG while seeing their yardage allowed increase to 383.0 total YPG over their last three games. This was a much different team away from the Georgia Dome as they only outgained their opponents by +14.3 net YPG on the road. Additionally, the strength of schedule this team enjoyed was not the most challenging. Frankly, both the Seahawks and Packers teams they hosted in the playoffs were injured and on the decline relative to their past franchise successes. December contests against the Rams and 49ers were laughers while they traveled to Carolina after they were eliminated from the playoffs. Lastly, the mention of the Panthers is perhaps apropos since they were a trendy team coming out of nowhere built on what looked like a dynamic offense before playing in the Super Bowl. That team fell to an opponent with a better defense with Championship experience. This remains a young Atlanta team perhaps happy to be experiencing the mania of two weeks of build up for this game. Atlanta would not be the first team to fold under the pressure and intensity of this game — and, it would  not be the first time for this franchise. 25* National Football League Game of the Year with the New England Patriots (101) minus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (311) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (312). Green Bay (12-6) proved their mettle last week by racing out to a 21-3 lead at Dallas despite Aaron Rodgers not having his top weapon in Jordy Nelson in that game. The Packers held on to win by a 34-31 score. This is a team that has scored at least 30 points in six straight games — and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. While Nelson looks doubtful for this game and the Packers are banged up in their secondary, they have an elite quarterback perhaps playing his best football of his life — and that goes a long way for us to take Rodgers and his team as an underdog getting more than 4 points (as of this writing). The championship experience of this franchise will play a big role for Green Bay. This team has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Rodgers and company have also covered the point spread in 4 straight playoff games on the road. And this Packers’ team will have a little extra edge to themselves with the knowledge that they will be looking to avenge a 33-32 loss to Atlanta in the Georgia Dome back on October 30th.

Atlanta (12-5) may suffer just the slightest of letdowns after slaying their proverbial dragon in the Seattle Seahawks by a 36-20 score last week. Head coach Dan Quinn is a Pete Carroll disciple who was the defensive coordinator on his Super Bowl staff and the Falcons were playing with revenge from a bitter loss up in Seattle earlier this season. Furthermore, I agree with Brett Favre that the pressure is fully mounted on Matt Ryan and this Atlanta team to finish the deal now. As it is, the Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 12 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. To compound matters, this is a franchise playing their very last game in the Georgia Dome before they move into the new Arthur Blank billion-dollar stadium. Unfortunately for the Falcons, this is a building with more heartaches than accomplishments with a restless fan-base that is half-expecting failure in this climactic contest. This franchise has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in the playoffs — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 playoff games at home. Atlanta has also shown a proclivity to lack a killer instinct which keeps Rodgers pulling out a back door cover very much alive. But expect this game to be very close with the Packers highly likely to pull the upset given then experience and advantage at quarterback (which is no slight to Ryan). 25* NFC Playoff Game of the Year with the Green Bay Packers (311) plus the points versus the Atlanta Falcons (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (306) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (305). Kansas City (12-4) has won two straight — as well as five of their last six games — after their 37-27 win at San Diego to close out the regular season. The Chiefs did generate 365 yards of offense in that game — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while KC allowed 269 yards to Phillip Rivers in that game, they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Head coach Andy Reid is so tough when given an extra week to prepare — his teams are now 19-2 straight-up after a bye-week. And quarterback Alex Smith enjoys an 11:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in the playoffs. Furthermore, the Chiefs are tied for the best turnover differential in the NFL which could play a huge role in this game given the inclement weather. Moving forward, Kansas City has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road, the Chiefs have covered the point spread 6 times.

Pittsburgh (12-5) has won eight in a row with their 30-12 win over Miami last week. That game was not a decisive as the final score suggests given that they only outgained a Matt Moore-led offense by 62 yards. This late Steelers winning streak was not unexpected considering the weaker schedule they enjoyed in the second-half of the season. Pittsburgh has not been quite as effective on the road either — they have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 53 games away from home after a straight-up win. Furthermore, the Steelers are just 1-3-2 ATS in their last 6 playoff games along with being only 0-3-2 ATS in their last 5 playoff games on the road. 25* AFC Playoff Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (306) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (308) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (307). Green Bay (11-6) has won seven games in a row with their 38-13 blowout win over the Giants last week at home in Lambeau Field. But while the Packers were 7-2 at home this season, they were just 4-4 on the road where they were outscored by -2.0 PPG and outgained by -13.6 net YPG. To compound matters, Aaron Rodgers will be without his best wide receiver Jordy Nelson who is out for this game with a rib injury. And while the Packers have scored at least 30 points in five straight games, that helps place the Cowboys into a historical “bounce-back” angle that has been 69% effective since 1983. Home teams coming off a loss by at least two touchdowns now facing a team that has scored at least 25 points in three straight games have then covered the point spread in 50 of the last 72 situations (71%) where these conditions applied since 1983.

Dallas (13-3) does come off a 27-13 loss at Philadelphia to end the regular season in a game where many of the starters took the day off. The Cowboys have then covered the point spread in 33 of their last 50 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. And while Dallas managed only 195 yards in that game, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to generate at least 250 yards of offense. The Cowboys return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games. Dallas is a near perfect 7-1 at home while outscoring their opponents by +9.4 PPG. 25* NFC Divisional Playoff Game of the Year with the Dallas Cowboys (308) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (108) minus the points versus the New York Giants (107). New York (11-5) has won three of their last four games with their 19-10 win at Washington to close out their regular season. With Steve Spagnolo back at defensive coordinator and this team traveling once against to Lambeau Field in the playoffs, this team is a trendy choice to be the dark horse candidate to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl as they have twice before with Eli Manning under center. But this is a very tough situation for them having to play their third straight game on the road. This is a team that is just 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And while the Giants allowed only 38 rushing yards against the Skins, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Remember that this Giants team was outgained by -9.1 net YPG this season despite their eleven victories.

Green Bay (10-6) has won six games in a row with their 31-24 win at Detroit. The Packers have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win. Aaron Rodgers completed 27 of 39 passed for 295 yards in that contest — and Green Bay has then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Rodgers has been on fire during this winning streak during which he has completed 71% of his passes while averaging a crisp 8.5 Yards-Per-Passing-Attempt while leading the Pack to score over 30 PPG over that span. Rodgers’ ability to move outside the pocket with wide receivers now comfortable when he does that makes this offense really hum. And don’t count out Rodgers likelihood to scramble for a handful of first downs in this contest. Green Bay has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. And this is a team confident in the playoffs as they have covered 4 of their last 5 playoff games while also covering the point spread in 4 straight games in the Wildcard Playoff round. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the Green Bay Packers (108) minus the points versus the New York Giants (107). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the San Diego Chargers (328) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (327). San Diego (5-10) has lost four straight games after their humiliating 20-17 loss at Cleveland in providing the Browns their first win of the season and avoid NFL infamy. That did look like a trap game for the Chargers last Saturday. But look for San Diego to bounce-back as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a straight-up loss. The team has plenty of motivation this afternoon besides getting a small measure of redemption while playing spoiler for the Chiefs’ playoff positioning. With head coach Mike McCoy on the hot seat, his team is playing for his job — and they do seem to like him. This also may be the last game this team plays in San Diego with rumors circulating that the franchise may be moving to Los Angeles. The Chargers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games in January. San Diego has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against AFC West opponents. Five of the Chargers’ ten losses this season were decided by four points or less — and they have pulled off two upset wins this year — which makes them a dangerous underdog in this game.

Kansas City (11-4) has won four of their last five games after their 33-10 win over Denver last Sunday night as a 3.5-point favorite. The Chiefs have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a point spread in win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Kansas City has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Chiefs need this victory to win along with a Raiders loss to the Broncos to win the AFC West and earn a bye in the first round of the playoffs. But Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. 25* AFC West Game of the Year with the San Diego Chargers (328) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (327). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (302) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (301). Tennessee (8-7) laid an egg last week on the road against the hapless Jaguars in a  38-17 loss. The Titans not only lost their starting quarterback in Marcus Mariota but they also saw their playoff hopes dashed with that loss. But in the first full season under head coach Mike Mularkey — and with the opportunity to earn their first winning season since 2011 — expect a spirited effort from this team looking to avenge a 27-20 loss to the Texans back on October 2nd. Tennessee’s opportunity to defeat the AFC South champions is supported by a very specific historical angle that has been 77% effective since 1983. Favorites in the 3.5-10 point range coming off a double-digit upset loss as a favorite now looking to avenge a loss against their opponent have then covered the point spread in 34 of the last 44 situations where these conditions applied.

Houston (9-6) has won three games in a row with their 12-10 win over Cincinnati last week. The Texans have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. Now with this team having clinched the AFC South, look for head coach Bill O’Brien to rest some of his key players — including running back Lamar Miller who has not practiced this week with an ankle injury. Even at full strength, this Houston team ranks a lowly 29th in the league according to the deeper metrics at Football Outsiders. Tellingly, the Texans have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 7 games on the road, Houston has failed to cover then point spread 5 times. 25* AFC South Blowout of the Year with the Tennessee Titans (302) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (326) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (325). Denver (8-5) has lost two of their last three games with their 13-10 loss at Tennessee last week as a 2-point underdog. The Broncos have rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. Denver is also 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after a point spread loss. The problem for this Broncos team has been their run defense as they allowed 180 rushing yards from the Titans last week. Denver has then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last contest. But now after playing two straight games on the road, the Broncos return home where they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games at home. Furthermore, Denver will look to redeem themselves in front of their home fans after losing their last game at home to the Chiefs by a 30-27 score. This team is getting good play out of Trevor Siemian who completed 33 of 51 passes for 334 yards and one touchdown and no interceptions against Tennessee. The Broncos must find balance as they ran the ball only nine times last week despite it being a low-scoring game.

New England (11-2) has won four in a row with their 30-23 win over Baltimore last Monday night. The Patriots seem to be doing it with mirrors with both Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola out with injuries for this game. Besides Tom Brady, who are the elite players on this team? Now this team faces a very tough test going on the road on a short week to play in a location where they always seem to struggle. New England has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 trips to the Mile High City. The Patriots loss in Denver in the AFC Championship Game last year by a 20-18 score where the defense may life very difficult for Brady by sacking him four times and pressuring him throughout the game. Remember, Brady had Gronk (8 catches for 144 yards and a TD) and Amendola in that game. The Patriots have also enjoyed seven straight games where they have not turned the ball over. Expect the Patriots fortunes to change in a tough environment against a Broncos team that needs a win but who will be confident in this game. 25* AFC Underdog of the Year with the Denver Broncos (326) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (325). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (131) minus the points versus the New York Giants (132). New York (804) saw their six-game winning streak snapped last week in a 24-14 loss at Pittsburgh as a 6.5-point underdog. The Giants are then 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after both a straight-up loss as well as after a point spread setback. New York was outclassed and outgained by -155 net yards by the Steelers. They surrendered 389 total yards in that game — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Offensive line is an issue for this team — and it helps explain why they average only 26:50 minutes of possession time per game. Head coach Ben McAdoo — a Mike McCarthy protege in his time as offensive coordinator for the Packers — has an offense suffering from of the same issues that has faced Green Bay this season in failing to utilize their skill players in an offense that has become predictable in 2016. Despite their winning record, the Giants usually get out-gained in the yardage battle. They are being outgained by -29.5 net YPG this season — and over their last three games, they are being outgained by -62.7 net YPG.

Dallas (11-1) has won eleven games in a row with their 17-15 win at Minnesota back on December 1st. The Cowboys have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win. And while Dallas held the Vikings to just 86 rushing yards, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing no more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. This team now travels to the Meadowlands to avenge their only loss of the season which was a 20-19 loss to the Giants in the opening week of the season. Rookie QB Dak Prescott has been outstanding in protecting the football as he has not thrown an interception in five straight games. The dominant Dallas offensive line dominates the tempo and tone of all of their games this season — they help the offense hold the football for 32:39 minutes per game. This helps the Cowboys play so well on the road. This team has not lost away from home in three seasons with Prescott or Tony Romo making the start under center. Dallas has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year with the Dallas Cowboys (131) minus the points versus the New York Giants (132). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (121) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (122). New Orleans (5-7) has lost three of their last four games with their 28-13 loss at home to Detroit last week as a 6-point favorite. The Saints have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a loss by at least 14 points. New Orleans should be able to score on this Buccaneers defense as they rank 2nd in the NFL in points while leading the league in total years and passing yards behind Drew Brees. That has helped the Saints go 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games against teams with a winning record. New Orleans has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Saints have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against NFC South opponents. New Orleans will be confident in this contest as they have won eight of their last nine games in this series.

Tampa Bay (7-5) has won their fourth straight game — all as an underdog — after their 28-21 win at San Diego last week. But young teams are susceptible to emotional letdowns — and this will be the first time this team is favored since September 25th. The Buccaneers are below average at home where they are just 2-4 while being outgained by -32.9 net YPG. Tampa Bay is just 20-44-1 ATS in their last 65 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Bucs have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games in the month of December. Lastly, the underdog has covered the point spread in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. 25* NFC South Game of the Month with the New Orleans Saints (121) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (122). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (109) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (110). Houston (6-6) has lost three games in a row with their 21-13 loss at Green Bay last week as a 7-point underdog. The Texans have then rebounded to go 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring less than 15 points in their last game. This franchise has been tough after dropping at least two straight games as they have then covered the point spread in 43 of their last 69 games after losing at least two in a row. Furthermore, Houston has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games after a loss on the road. Head coach Bill O’Brien usually gets the most out of his team against divisional rivals as they are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games against AFC South opponents. Furthermore, his teams have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games against divisional rivals. The Texans are getting healthier again on defense with Johnathan Joseph, John Simon and Jadeveon Clowney all likely to take the field this afternoon.

Indianapolis (6-6) has won three of their last four games after their 41-10 win in New York against the Jets as a 1-point underdog on Monday. The Jets simply did not show up to play in that game as they have apparently given up on their head coach Todd Bowles. But the Colts have been inconsistent as they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after both a point spread win as well as after a straight-up victory. Additionally, Indy has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while Andrew Luck passed for 282 yards in that contest, they are then just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. 25* AFC South Game of the Year with the Houston Texans (109) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:25 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (102) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (101). Kansas City (9-3) is flying under the radar having won  seven of their last eight games — and nineteen of their last twenty-two regular season contests — after their 29-28 win at Atlanta last Sunday. That culminated a very challenging week which started on Monday with an overtime win on the road at Denver. The Chiefs generated 389 yards of offense in that contest — and they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while Kansas City allowed 290 passing yards in that contest, they have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Now this team returns home where they have won ten of their last eleven games. While the Raiders get most of the national attention, the Chiefs have the opportunity to take full command of winning the AFC West with a victory here which would give them the tie-breaker considering their earlier 26-10 win in Oakland last month.

Oakland (10-2) has won six games in a row with their 38-24 win over Buffalo last week as a 3-point favorite. The Raiders are then 11-24-1 ATS in their last 36 games after a point spread victory. And while Oakland has covered the point spread in five of their last six contests, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 road games after covering the point spread in four or five of rather last six games. Furthermore, the Raiders are just 17-37-1 ATS in their last 55 games in the month of December. Oakland has some unfortunate injuries in this game with strong safety Carl Joseph limping along with defensive tackle Stacy McGee and linebacker Shilique Calhoun. The Raiders’ defense held KC’s tight end Travis Kielce to just three receptions in the first meeting. But the Chiefs rushed for 183 yards in that victory led by Spencer Ware’s 131 yards which means the Oakland adjustment will be to increase their efforts to stop the run — and that should open up space for Kelce this time around. Andy Reid’s team is tailor-made to stymie teams offensive-minded teams like the Raiders with their ball control offense. They held the football for 36:45 on the road in their first meeting. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (102) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (377) plus the points versus the New York Jets (378). Indianapolis (5-6) saw their two-game losing streak snapped on Thanksgiving with their 28-7 loss to the Steelers as an 8-point underdog. This Colts team was without quarterback Andrew Luck for that game — and backup Scott Tolzien was unsurprisingly ineffective in his absence. The team will have Luck again under center for this contest. Indy has been reliable in bounce-back situations like this as they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 34 games after a straight-up loss. The Colts have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 30 games against teams with a losing record. The Colts have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games on Monday Night Football.

New York (3-8) has lost three straight games with their 22-17 loss to New England last week as a 9-point underdog. The Jets are then 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread win. New York allowed 286 passing yards in that contest — have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Jets did pass for 269 yards in that contest — but they are just 5-14-2 ATS in their last 21 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. New York stays home in this game where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Together, these team trends produce our specific 101-33 combined angle for this situation. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Year with the Indianapolis Colts (377) plus the points versus the New York Jets (378). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (372) minus the points versus the Washington Redskins (371). Arizona (4-6-1) has been one of the league’s biggest disappointments this season having lost two games in a row after their 38-19 loss in Atlanta last week. But three of their last four games have been on the road — and this has been a much better team at home under head coach Bruce Arians. The Cardinals are outscoring their opponents at home by +9.1 PPG due to their suffocating defense that limits their guests to just 12.7 PPG along with only 287.5 total YPG. Arizona has covered the point spread in 41 of their last 63 games at home after losing at least two straight games. The Cardinals have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after a game that finished Over the Total. The Arizona defense should play much better in this contest. Their pass defense ranks 2nd in the NFL — and the deeper metrics at Football Outsiders rate that unit as the 5th best overall in the league. Additionally, the Cardinals have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games in the month of December.

Washington (6-4-1) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Thanksgiving in a 31-26 loss at Dallas. The Skins have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Washington will be without one of their key weapons on offense in tight end Jordan Reed. This is not a good match for the Skins. Their defense allows 117 rushing YPG which is 25th in the NFL which could mean a big day for Cardinals running back David Johnson. Furthermore, the Washington defense gives up 7.1 Yards-Per-Passing-Play — and Arizona has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games against teams that allow at least 7.0 YPP.  And while the Skins average 315 passing YPG, the Cardinals have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 home games against teams that average at least 235 passing YPG. Expect Arizona to bounce-back with a strong effort back at home where they have not lost since a setback against the Rams way back on October 2nd. 25* NFC Game of the Year with the Arizona Cardinals (372) minus the points versus the Washington Redskins (371). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (276) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (275). Green Bay (4-6) has lost four straight games after their 42-24 loss at Washington last week. The Packers are then just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a loss by at least 14 points. Green Bay has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Additionally, while the Packers generated 424 yards in that game, they are then just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Now this reeling team plays their third game in a row away from Lambeau Field. To compound matters, the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in the month of November.

Philadelphia (5-5) has lost three of their last four games themselves after their 26-15 loss at Seattle last week. A tough strength of schedule has impacted the Eagles’ record. But they are outscoring their opponents by an impressive +5.5 PPG. This team also owns the second best Time of Possession average in the NFL. Moving forward, Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home. And in their last 6 appearances on Monday Night Football, the Eagles have covered the point spread 5 times. Together, these team trends produce our specific 30-5-2 ATS combined angle for this situation. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Philadelphia Eagles (276) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (271) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (272). Kansas City (7-3) looks to rebound from an embarrassing 19-17 loss to Tampa Bay last week as a 7-point favorite. The Chiefs have rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Frankly, this team may have been looking ahead to this AFC West showdown — and a win in this contest would go a long way to redeem themselves from that bad loss at home. Remember, this team has won seventeen of their last twenty regular season games under head coach Andy Reid. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in November. And in their last 11 games on the road, Kansas City has covered the point spread in 8 of these games.

Denver (7-3) has won three of their last four games with their 25-23 win at New Orleans back on November 13th. The Broncos won that game despite generating only 237 yards of offense and being outgained by -136 net yards. This team has seen some regression on the defensive side of the football as of late as they rank just 23rd in the NFL in total defense since Week 8 this season. Trevor Siemian is completing less than 55% of his passes over that time as well. Moving forward, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against AFC West opponents. The Broncos have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games in Week 11 of the season. Lastly, while the Chiefs are completing 66.8% of their passes, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 45 games against teams that complete at least 64% of their passes in the second-half of the season. Together, these team trends produce our specific 62-25 ATS combined angle for this situation. 25* NFL AFC West Game of the Month with the Kansas City Chiefs (271) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Jets (274) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (273). New York has lost two in a row after a 9-6 loss to the Los Angeles Rams back on November 13th. With talk of the Jets losing confidence in head coach Todd Bowles, it might be very tempting to expect a blowout from the Patriots. Instead, expect Bowles to have used the bye week to rally this football team together considering that every one of them are playing for their jobs next week. As it is, the Jets are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after failing to score at least 15 points. New York is also 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 11 games against fellow AFC East foes, the Jets are 7-3-1 ATS.

New England (8-2) kept rolling last week with a 30-17 win at San Francisco. But the Patriots are vulnerable when being asked to cover a point spread of more than a touchdown when on the road — despite last week’s results. New England has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Patriots are also just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November. Furthermore, New England tends to play tight games with the Jets. Not only are the Patriots 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 encounters with the Jets but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 trips to New York to play the Jets. Together, these team trends produce our specific 33-11-5 ATS combined angle for this situation. 25* NFL AFC East Game of the Month with the New York Jets (274) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (273). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (253) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (254). Chicago (2-8) has lost two straight games as well as five of their last six games after a 22-16 loss at New York against the Giants as a 7-point underdog. The Bears have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread victory. The team suffered a huge blow in that game with Jay Cutler suffering a shoulder injury which will keep him out indefinitely (and which might have been his last game on the field as a Bear). With Brian Hoyer also on the shelf, head coach John Fox will have to resort to the recently signed Matt Barkley as his starting quarterback with former Bear David Foles picked up off the street to be his backup. This is a team already missing key pieces with their All-Pro guard Kyle Long out with an injury and All-Pro wide receiver Alshon Jeffery serving the second of a four-game PED suspension. As it is, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. The Bears have also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 34 games at home, Chicago is just 9-24-1 ATS.

Tennessee (5-6) has lost two of their last three games after their 24-17 loss at Indianapolis last week. The Titans were the toast of the NFL that week before suffering that loss. This team remains powerful on offense as of late. Over their last three games, Tennessee is scoring 33.0 PPG while generating 396.7 total YPG. The Titans’ reliance on a physical ground game travels well as they are outgaining their opponents by +17.6 net YPG. Lastly, while Tennessee averages 6.2 Yards-Per-Play, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 35 games against teams that average at least 6.0 YPP in the second-half of the season. Together, these team trends produce our specific 74-25-1 ATS combined angle for this situation. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Tennessee Titans (253) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (254). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the San Diego Chargers (251) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (252). San Diego (4-6) has lost two of their last three games after a 31-24 loss to Miami back on November 13th as a 4.5-point favorite. Enjoying the bye week should help this team. As it is, the Chargers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, San Diego has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. All six of the Chargers losses this season have been decided by just one scoring possession. This team has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. QB Phillip Rivers has also ensured that his team are capable road warriors. Not only have they covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road, they have also covered the point spread in four of their last five road games against teams with a winning record at home.

Houston (6-3) looks to bounce-back from a 25-20 loss to Oakland in Mexico City on Monday. This is a very tough situation for the Texans to play a team with an extra week of rest when they themselves are playing off a short week. Furthermore, the team faces a significant disadvantage at quarterback with Brock Osweiler looking to outduel Rivers. Additionally, Houston allowed 295 passing yards against the Raiders — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Together, these team trends produce our specific 40-8-1 ATS combined angle for this situation. The deeper metrics used by Football Outsiders rank this Texans team all the way down at 30th in the league. This is a team that has survived with five victories (four net wins) decided by one scoring possession. 25* NFL AFC Game of the Month with the San Diego Chargers (251) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington Redskins (109) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (110). Dallas (9-1) won their ninth game in a row last week with their 27-17 win over Baltimore. The Cowboys generated 417 yards of offense in that game — but they are then just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in thiner last game. Despite their great season, this is still a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 6 opportunities to play on a Thursday, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these games.

Washington (6-3-1) has won two straight games with their 42-24 win over Green Bay last week as a 3-point favorite. The Skins have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. Washington has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. The deeper metrics at Football Outsiders rank the Skins the 7th best team in the NFL. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. They also have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams representing the NFC East opponents. Washington has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road. Lastly, in their last 9 trips to Dallas, the Skins have covered the point spread in 8 of these games. Together, these team trends produce our specific 43-8-1 ATS combined angle for this situation. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the Washington Redskins (109) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (107) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (108). Detroit (6-4) won their fifth game over their last six contests last week with a 26-19 win over Jacksonville. The Lions eked out that game despite managing only 14 rushing yards and being outgained by -31 net yards. This Detroit team has won all six of their games this season by one scoring possession. And they will be facing a Vikings team playing with revenge after being defeated at home by the Lions by a 22-16 score. Yet this Detroit team has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against NFC North opponents. And in their last 12 games in Week 12 of the season, the Lions have failed to cover the point spread 10 times.

Minnesota (6-4) snapped their four-game losing streak last week by defeating Arizona by a 30-24 score as a 2-point favorite. The Vikings have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in a decisive 22 of their last 27 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, while Minnesota managed only 217 yards of offense in that contest, they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after failing to generate at least 250 yards of offense. Moving forward, Mike Zimmer’s defense has proven themselves capable road warriors as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on the road — including six of their last seven road games against teams with a winning record at home. Together, these team trends produce our specific 89-24 ATS combined angle for this situation. 25* NFC North Underdog of the Month with the Minnesota Vikings (107) plus the points versus the Detroit Lions (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (463) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (464). Dallas (8-1) earned a signature win last week in a gutty 35-30 win at Pittsburgh. After that win along with the emotional speech given by Tony Romo where he acknowledged that he has lost his starting job to Dak Prescott, this is a team primed for a letdown. As it is, while the Cowboys generated 442 yards of offense in that game, they are then just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Of concern in the Dallas pass defense after Ben Roethlisberger roasted them for 400 passing yards in that game. The Cowboys have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Injuries in their defensive backfield will not make things easier for Dallas. Furthermore, this is a team that has not enjoyed much of a home field advantage as they are just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games at home. The Cowboys have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

Baltimore (5-4) has won two in a row after their 28-7 win over Cleveland last week as a 7.5-point favorite. The Ravens have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Baltimore is getting healthy again on defense — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than two touchdowns in their last game. Additionally, the Ravens boast the league’s best run defense which will challenge the Cowboys’ top-ranked rushing offense. Baltimore is 14-4-3 ATS in their last 21 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 4 games in November, the Ravens are 3-0-1 ATS. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the Baltimore Ravens (463) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (464). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (452) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (451). Tennessee (5-5) has received accolades all week after winning their fourth game over their last six with a 47-25 shellacking of Green Bay last week. This team looks primed for a letdown now going back on the road. The Titans have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least 14 points. Tennessee is also just 9-24-1 ATS in their last 34 games after scoring at least 30 points. Remember, the Titans are just 5-19-3 ATS in their last 27 games against teams with a losing record. Furthermore, this has been a bad team away from home for awhile as they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games on the road. Additionally, Tennessee is 5-19-3 ATS in their last 27 games against teams with a losing record.

Indianapolis (4-5) has won two of their last three games after they defeated the Packers by a 31-26 score back on November 6th. The Colts have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a bye week. Andrew Luck loves facing this team as he is a perfect 8-0 while scoring 29 PPG against the Titans. He should pick apart a suspect pass defense that ranks 23rd in the NFL. Head coach Chuck Pagano has raised the stakes for this team labeling it a “playoff game.” Indy is 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games against AFC South foes. The Colts are also 27-12-1 ATS in their last 40 games at home. And this is a team that has covered the point spread in 7 straight games in the month of November. 25* AFC South Game of the Month with the Indianapolis Colts (452) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (451). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:25 PM EST on Thursday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (310) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (309). Carolina (3-6) finds their season on the brink after a tough 20-17 loss to Kansas City on Sunday. The Panthers lost that game despite outgaining the Chiefs by 85 net yards. Carolina has the situational advantage of staying at home for this game on a short week. They are also playing with revenge on their mind after losing to these Saints by a 41-38 score back on October 16th. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 35 of their last 46 games when looking to avenge a loss where their opponent scored at least 28 points in that game. And while Carolina is just 2-3 this year at home, the longer term team trends show this team to have a strong home field advantage. Not only have the Panthers covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games at home but they are also 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Carolina has also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 home games against NFC foes.

New Orleans (4-5) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week in a 25-23 loss to Denver. The Saints were 3-point favorites in that game which means they are now 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games in the month of November. New Orleans averages 427.7 YPG this season — but the Panthers match up well at home against prolific offenses like this. The Saints have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games against teams that generate at least 370 YPG — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games in the second-half of the season against teams that average at least 350 YPG. 25* NFC South Game of the Month with the Carolina Panthers (310) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (309). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (272) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (271). Pittsburgh (4-4) looks to snap a three-game losing streak this afternoon after losing to the Ravens last week by a 21-14 score. This is a “circle the wagons” game for this franchise that entered the season with sky-high expectations. The Steelers have rebounded to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a straight-up loss. Ben Roethlisberger looked shaky returning from injury last week — but the extra week of recuperation should help him for this game. Roethlisberger has a 51:13 touchdown to interception ration at home over the last two seasons. Furthermore, Roethlisberger has won his last seven starts at home while averaging 342 passing yards in those contests. The Steelers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. Pittsburgh is also 14-6-2 ATS in their last 22 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Steelers have won eleven of their last fourteen games over the last two seasons in November and December.

Dallas (7-1) has won seven games in a row with their 35-10 win at Cleveland — but this team has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Cowboys generated 423 yards of offense in that game — but they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. Furthermore, while Dallas held the Browns to only 222 yards of offense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after holding their last opponent to no more than 250 yards. While the Cowboys may be the toast of the league right now with rookie Dak Prescott under center, this is a team that has also enjoyed the easiest schedule in the league through the first nine games. Lastly, Dallas has allowed each of their last four opponents to complete at least 70% of their passes which is a dangerous sign when facing Big Ben. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (272) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (271). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (471) plus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (472). Oakland (6-2) has won two straight games with their 30-24 win at Tampa Bay last week as a pick ‘em. But the Raiders have not been a reliable team after big victories. Not only is Oakland 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 games after a straight-up win but they are 9-23-1 ATS in their last 33 games after a point spread victory. Home field has not been much of an advantage for this team either as they are only 1-2 in front of their home fans this season while failing to cover the point spread in 7 straight contests. Now they host the defending Super Bowl defending champions who have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road.

Denver (6-2) has won two straight games with their 27-19 win over San Diego last week as a 4-point favorite. The Broncos have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win — and they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up win. And while Denver allowed 369 yards in that game, they are then 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Expect the defense that leads the NFL in Yards-Per-Play and sacks to bounce-back with a strong effort. The Broncos are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 5 games on the road, the Denver defense has helped them cover the point spread in 4 of these contests. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Denver Broncos (471) plus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (454) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (453). Minnesota (5-2) needs a win after losing two straight games after a 20-10 upset loss at Chicago on Monday Night Football despite being a 5.5-point favorite. BEST ARGUMENT: Head coach Mike Zimmer was once again disappointed with the effort of his team against the lowly Bears. Expect his team to come out on fire this afternoon. Minnesota has rebounded to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Returning home will help after being on the road for these two losses in Chicago and Philadelphia. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 31 games at home. And they are hosting a Lions’ team that has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home. 25* NFC North Game of the Year with the Minnesota Vikings (454) minus the points versus the Detroit Lions (453). Best of luck for us — Frank.

ABRIDGED VERSION -- please check back before tip off for my full written Report before this game starts. Given the high volume of plays I offer clients, I am providing an initial “abridged version” of the play to get them posted faster to accommodate my Daily, Weekly and Monthly subscribers so they can begin shopping lines. My research is detailed for our plays (which I do complete before endorsing a play) but it does take some time to write the more detailed Reports that clients have grown to count on. Thanks, Frank.

At 8:30 PM EST on Monday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (274) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (273). Chicago (1-6) has lost three straight games while failing to cover the point spread in all three of these games after their 26-10 loss at Green Bay last week as a 7-point favorite. BEST ARGUMENT: The Bears typically respond well after losing streaks like this. Chicago has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after losing three straight contests. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 home games after suffering at least three straight losses. Furthermore, Chicago managed only 189 yards in that contest — but they have then covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games after failing to gain at least 200 yards in their last game. The Bears do get two important pieces back on offense in this game with quarterback Jay Cutler returning to the field and running back Jeremy Langford likely coming back from an ankle injury. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Chicago Bears (274) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (273). Best of luck for us — Frank.

ABRIDGED VERSION -- please check back before tip off for my full written Report before this game starts. Given the high volume of plays I offer clients, I am providing an initial “abridged version” of the play to get them posted faster to accommodate my Daily, Weekly and Monthly subscribers so they can begin shopping lines. My research is detailed for our plays (which I do complete before endorsing a play) but it does take some time to write the more detailed Reports that clients have grown to count on. Thanks, Frank.

At 8:30 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (271) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (272). Philadelphia (4-2) snapped their two-game losing streak last week with an impressive 21-10 win over a previously undefeated Minnesota team. BEST ARGUMENT: While rookie quarterback Carson Wentz may be getting most of the headlines, it is the stout Eagles’ defense under defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz that is making the difference for this team. The Eagles held the Vikings to just 182 yards of offense last week. Philadelphia has allowed only one quarterback this season to register a QB Rating of at least 100 against them this season. In five of their games this season, the Eagles have held their opponents to under 300 yards of offense. Schwartz and his outstanding defensive line should will have some special plans dialed up for the Cowboys’ rookie QB Dak Prescott. Moving forward, Philly has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. Additionally, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when playing on field turf.

Dallas (5-1) has won five straight games with their 30-16 win at Green Bay back on October 16th. The Cowboys gained 424 yards in that victory — but they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Now after registering two straight wins as the underdog, Dallas is the favorite for this contest. But the Cowboys are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Dallas does not retain much of a home field advantage either. Not only are they 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 home games but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Lastly, the Cowboys are just 4-14-1 ATS in their last 19 games played on field turf. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Philadelphia Eagles (271) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (254) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (253). Atlanta (4-3) has received plenty of accolades this season after defeating the two teams that played in the Super Bowl last February — but after defeating Carolina and Denver in successive weeks, the Falcons now find themselves having lost two straight games. After dropping a difficult game in Seattle two weeks ago, Atlanta returned home last week where they lost to the Chargers by a 33-30 score. BEST ARGUMENT: The Falcons need to right-their-ship in front of some anxious fans at home considering that their season collapsed last season after another good start under first-year coach Dan Quinn a year ago. Quinn and his team declare this group is different and more mature — but they have to prove it after last week’s loss where Matt Bryant missed a game-winning field goal at the end of regulation time. Atlanta has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Falcons have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. Now they host a Packers team that has spoiled this team in big games and in the playoffs over the years — making them a perfect foil for this group to take the next step to rally their fan base.

Green Bay (253) has won three of their last four games with their 26-10 win over Chicago two Thursdays ago. The Packers are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. Despite their winning record, this Green Bay team looks flawed. They have scored more than 30 points only once this season which makes this matchup with a Falcons’ team that leads the NFL in both scoring and total yards daunting. The Packers defense is flawed and filled with injuries particularly on their back end. The five passing touchdowns they have allowed of more than 20 yards is tied for second most in the NFL. And on the road, Green Bay is managing only 278.5 total YPG — and they are being outgained by -37.5 net YPG. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the Atlanta Falcons (254) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (253). Best of luck for us — Frank.