At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (561) and the Boston Bruins (562). THE SITUATION: Golden State (28-28) has won four games in a row after their 119-101 win at Cleveland as a 6-point favorite on Thursday. Boston (30-26) has won five in a row with their 121-113 win at Los Angeles against the Lakers on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Golden State has also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Warriors are playing their third game on the road since Monday — and they have played 8 straight Unders when playing their third game on the road in five days. They made 51.1% of their shots in Cleveland on Thursday — but they are shooting just 44.9% this season on the road. Golden State has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Warriors have also played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 21 of their last 30 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to six points. Furthermore, Golden State has played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total against Eastern Conference opponents — and they have played 30 of their last 49 games Under the Total with the Total in the 220s. Boston has made 56.5% of their shots on Thursday which was the best shooting effort in their last 20 games. But the Celtics have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after shooting at least 55% from the field in their last game — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after scoring at least 120 points in their last contest. Additionally, Boston has played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after winning at least two in a row. And while the Celtics have played their last two games Over the Total, they have then played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Overs. Boston returns home where they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total. And they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when favored. Brad Stevens has this team playing better defense — they rank sixth in the NBA in Defensive Rating over their last ten games.

FINAL TAKE: Injuries may play a role in this game. Robert Williams III is out with a knee injury — and he is starting to gel with the Celtics’ Big Four starters. Jaylen Brown is now questionable with an illness. While Brown is an elite defender, those skills are not essential against the Warriors since Marcus Smart will be the primary defender on Stephen Curry. But if Brown does not play, then Draymond Green will defend Jayson Tatum without a “pick your poison” dilemma. These two teams have played 21 of their last 28 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight Unders when playing in Boston. The Warriors may be without Kelly Oubre who is questionable with a wrist. The Celtics won the last meeting at Golden State, 111-107, on February 2nd — and Golden State has played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. 25* NBA Saturday Night ABC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (561) and the Boston Bruins (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (554) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (553). THE SITUATION: Dallas (30-24) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 114-113 win at Memphis as a 3-point favorite on Wednesday. New York (29-27) has won four games in a row with their 116-106 upset win at New Orleans as a 2.5-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS MINUS THE POINTS: Luka Doncic saved Dallas against the Grizzlies with a stumbling buzzer-beating 3-pointer to end the game (although he was probably fouled on the play — so he may have been given free throws to win the game). Doncic will be the best player on the court tonight — and Kristaps Porzingis will likely be the second-best player. The Unicorn has been on fire as of late with a 22.0 Points-Per-Game scoring average in his last ten games along with a 10.2 Rebounds-Per-Game mark on 50% shooting from the field and a 38.6% mark from downtown. Porzingis got Monday off at home against the 76ers in a game where the Mavs got blown out — but he returned on Wednesday with 21 points against the Grizzlies. Injuries and COVID slowed down this team early — but they are pretty much healthy again and playing much better basketball on both ends of the court. The Mavs have won seven of their last ten games. This team played at a historic level on offense last season — they were due to regress in that area this year. Defense has been the concern for this team — and they rank fifth-best in the NBA in Defensive Rating over their last ten games. They should play well tonight as they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after a narrow win by three points or less against a Southwest Division rival. The Mavericks have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a point spread loss. And in their last 5 home games as a favorite, they have covered the point spread in 4 of these games. New York is a team due for an emotional letdown after pulling the upset on the road against the defensively-challenged Pelicans. The Knicks have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit upset win as a road underdog. Furthermore, New York has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 6 games this season after winning three in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning four of their last five games. The Knicks have covered point spread expectations in seven straight games after their upset win against New Orleans — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 straight games after going on a seven-game point spread cover run. Tom Thibodeau’s team is just 12-17 on the road this season. And while they rank 3rd in the NBA in Defensive Rating as the team takes to Thibodeau’s defensive philosophy, they are just 22nd in the league in Offensive Rating.

FINAL TAKE: Defense goes only so far against talent such as Luka Doncic — as he showed with that game-winner on Wednesday. The Mavs are particularly dangerous when Porzingis is healthy and playing well. The Mavs won easily against the Knicks on April 2nd in a 99-86 victory. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in the second half of the season against teams winning 51-60% of their games. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Game of the Year with the Dallas Mavericks (554) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (553). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (560) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (559). THE SITUATION: Dallas (29-23) has lost two of their last three games after their 119-117 upset loss at home to San Antonio as a 6-point favorite last night. Philadelphia (36-17) has won four of their last six games with their 117-93 win at Oklahoma City as a 9.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS PLUS THE POINTS: I committed to this play this afternoon after seeing that Maxi Kleiber was upgraded to probable after missing time with a leg injury. Because Kristaps Porzingis played almost 36 minutes last night, head coach Rick Carlisle may give him the night off to rest his back for “load management” reasons. If Porzingis plays, let’s consider it a bonus — but I have to assume he will not take the court. The Mavs’ getting Kleiber back tonight helps with their front-court depth. Dallas is much better than their record. Injuries and COVID hit this team hard early in the year which contributed to their 8-13 season — but they have since put up an impressive 21-10 record. Defense has been the Achilles’ heel for this group over the last two seasons — but they have won six of their last eight games while ranking third in the league in Defensive Rating over that span. In these last eight games, the Mavericks rank fourth in the NBA in Net Rating. They lost focus on defense last night by allowing the Spurs to make 54.2% of their shots which was the worst opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 29 games. They have still held their last five opponents to 43.1% shooting which has generated just 102.4 PPG. Dallas should play better tonight. They have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. The Mavericks stay at home where they have won eleven of their last fifteen games still even after last night — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 26 home games as an underdog getting up to six points, Dallas has covered the point spread 17 times. Philadelphia made 46.8% of their shots last night which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. But the 76ers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up victory — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread win. Additionally, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 34 of their last 54 road games after allowing at least 115 points in their last game. The 76ers are playing better on the road this year with a 16-12 record — but they remain dominant at home with a 20-5 mark. Philly may have one eye on the plane ride home with this being their final game in a four-game road trip. The Sixers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing their last three games on the road. Philadelphia is 10-23-2 ATS in their last 35 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas may be without Porzingis — but they still have Luka Doncic and a very nice roster which always gives them a chance to win (when not decimated with injuries). The Mavericks will be looking to avenge a 111-97 loss at Philadelphia on February 25th — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 15 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 25* NBA Monday ESPN Game of the Year with the Dallas Mavericks (560) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (559). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:08 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (553) and the New Orleans Pelicans (534). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (24-24) snapped a two-game losing streak last night with their 134-129 upset win in double-overtime at San Antonio as a 1-point underdog. New Orleans (21-26) had their two-game winning streak end last night in a 115-110 loss in overtime to Orlando as a 5.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Atlanta held the Spurs to 44.5% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last six games under new head coach Nate McMillan. The Hawks have still allowed their last five opponents to make 49.3% of their shots which has resulted in 118.0 PPG for these opponents. Atlanta has allowed at least 108 points in six straight games — and they have then played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after allowing at least 105 points in four straight games. The Hawks have also played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total after a win by six points or less — and they have played 26 of their last 35 games Over the Total after a game where at least 245 combined points were scored. Atlanta’s starters logged in 193:49 minutes last night — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when their starters combined to play at least 160 minutes the day before. The Hawks have also played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total when playing their third game on the road in five days. Atlanta has played four straight Overs heading into this game — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight games Over the Total. The Hawks conclude their eight-game road trip tonight — they have played straight games Over the Total on the road as an underdog. Atlanta has been hot with their shooting on this trip. They are making 49.8% of their shots in their last five games, which is generating 115.6 PPG. New Orleans only made 43.6% of their shots last night which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last six games. They also held the Magic to make 42.5% of their shots which is the best defensive effort in their last four contests. The Pelicans have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, New Orleans has played 19 of their last 24 games Over the Total after allowing at least 115 points in their last game — and they have played 22 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a game where at least 225 combined points were scored. The Pelicans’ five starters played 195:54 minutes last night — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total in games when their starters combined to play at least 160 minutes the prior day. New Orleans has also played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing without rest. The Pelicans are not a good defensive team even under the guidance of a defensive head coach in Stan Van Gundy in his first year with the franchise. New Orleans ranks 28th with their Defensive Rating. The Pelicans have the seventh-best Offensive Rating in the league — and they are making 49.4% of their shots in their last five games. They have scored at least 110 points in three straight games — and they have then played 17 of their last 21 games Over the Total after scoring at least 110 points in three straight games. They stay at home where they have played 20 of their last 26 games Over the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 15 home games Over the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans will be without Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, and Lonzo Ball for tonight’s game as they are all dealing with injuries that has compelled Van Gundy to give them the night off after playing yesterday. The Pelicans have still played 17 of their last 21 games Over the Total when favored. This is a strong technical play. 25* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (553) and the New Orleans Pelicans (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (529) and the Golden State Warriors (530). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (22-22) had their three-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday in a 110-108 upset loss at Sacramento as a 3-point favorite. Golden State (22-23) has lost three in a row with their 141-119 loss at Sacramento as a 4.5-point underdog last night.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hawks lost to the Kings despite making 48.3% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. Atlanta makes only 45.3% of their shots on the road. They have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss by 6 points or less. Additionally, the Hawks have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Atlanta had been on an eight-game winning streak since they named Nate McMillan their head coach. He made an immediate impact in improving the play of the team’s defense after being elevated from an assistant coach for Lloyd Pierce. In the ten games under McMillan’s command, the Hawks rank fifth in the NBA in Defensive Rating — a big improvement over their 18th ranking for the season. Over their last five games, Atlanta has held their opponents to 104.6 PPG on 44.4% shooting representing a -6.1 PPG improvement over the 110.7 PPG they are allowing for the season. The Hawks have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Atlanta has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Golden State made 51.1% of their shots last night — even without Stephen Curry — which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. The Warriors also allowed the Kings to make 59.6% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games. Golden State has played 7 straight games Under the Total when playing without rest. The Warriors have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Golden State remains without Curry who is out with a bruised tailbone. The Warriors are making only 44.6% of their shots in their last five games with the last three without Curry. They are scoring 108.8 PPG during that span which is -3.9 PPG below their season average. Golden State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Title as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as a home dog.

FINAL TAKE: The Warriors were without Draymond Green and Eric Paschall last night with both out feeling ill after getting their COVID shot. They are questionable for tonight. The Hawks traded Rajon Rondo for Lou Williams yesterday but the high-scoring guard is not likely to be ready to play for his new team tonight. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and the Under is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams in Golden State. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Hawks (529) and the Golden State Warriors (530). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the San Antonio Spurs (506) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (505). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (22-19) has lost three in a row after their 134-101 loss to the Clippers as a 6.5-point underdog last night. Los Angeles (29-16) has won three in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPURS PLUS THE POINTS: We had San Antonio last night as a 10* play. The Clippers raced out to a 41-29 lead at the end of the first quarter — but the Spurs rallied to pull within six points midway through the second quarter where the game yo-yoed back-and-forth until LA pulled away midway through the third quarter. Head coach Gregg Popovich called off the proverbial dogs in the fourth quarter with his starter not playing the final eight minutes. While it is dangerous to chase losses, it is also foolish to automatically dismiss profitable opportunities only because of a previous lost bet. Tonight’s situation is stronger as San Antonio has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by 10 or more points at home. This is a team that has been on a five-game road trip — and now they have lost the first two games of a nine-game homestand. The Spurs have still covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. This is their second game of a nine-game homestand — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games after losing at least two in a row. This is an underrated team that has intriguing young talent along with DeMar DeRozan who is playing at a very high level. As always under Gregg Popovich, this is a well-coached team that plays smart. San Antonio leads the NBA with the lowest turnover rate in the league — and they have the fifth-lowest foul rate. The Spurs are also playing better defense as of late. They had held their previous five opponents to 105.6 PPG on 45.2% shooting which is -4.5 PPG below their season average — before last night’s mulligan. They also were making a healthy 47.9% of their shots during that five-game span before shooting just 45.9% last night which was the worst shooting margin in their last four games. San Antonio has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games as an underdog. Los Angeles shot 55.7% from the field last night which was the best shooting effort in their last 12 games. Yet the Clippers have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. The Clippers have covered the point spread in their last three games as a favorite — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after winning and covering the point spread in at least two straight games as a favorite. The Clippers have still failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games when favored.

FINAL TAKE:  The Clippers will still be without Serge Ibaka and Patrick Beverley who are dealing with injuries. San Antonio hopes to get Lonnie Walker IV and Rudy Gay back tonight after they missed last night’s game with injures. The Spurs have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 16 games when avenging a loss by at least 20 points.
25* NBA Western Conference Underdog of the Month with the San Antonio Spurs (506) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (505). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Detroit Pistons (559) plus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (560). THE SITUATION: Detroit (12-30) had their two-game losing streak with a 100-86 loss to Chicago as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. Indiana (19-23) has lost nine of their last thirteen games after their 140-113 loss at Milwaukee as a 7-point underdog on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PISTONS PLUS THE POINTS: Detroit made only 4 of their 25 shots from behind the arc against the Bulls with their 39.0% shooting percentage being the lowest mark in their last six games. And the 46.2% field goal percentage that Chicago managed was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three contests. The Pistons should play better tonight for head coach Dwane Casey who is getting every ounce of talent out of his roster. Detroit has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games after a double-digit loss at home. Additionally, the Pistons have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a loss at home. Furthermore, Detroit has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a point spread loss. Casey is doing a great coaching job with this team with the organization looking ahead to the NBA draft. His players consistently play with effort — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road. Rodney McGruder is out tonight and Wayne Ellington is questionable — but Casey still has several rag-tag players that are proving quality minutes. Jerami Grant is enjoying a breakout season with his chance to demonstrate his offensive skills on top of his elite defensive talent. Deion Wright has been a surprise. Dennis Smith is showing flashes of the promise that made him a top-ten draft pick by the Knicks. Mason Plumlee has been solid. Indiana is not at full health with two starters, Malcolm Brogdon and Myles Turner, questionable with back and ankle injuries, respectively. The Pacers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. Indiana has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a double-digit loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. And while Indiana has scored at least 105 points in six straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 straight games after scoring at least 105 points in five straight contests. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Injuries continue to hold this Pacers’ team back. Missing T.J. Warren all season has been a big blow to their offense whose limitations were why they did not retain Nate McMillan as their head coach. They recently got Caris LeVert into the mix — but potentially not having Brogdon and/or Turner really hurts after both were out against the Bucks. Brogdon has been the team’s leading scorer in his previous eight games with a 22.5 PPG scoring average while nailing 54.3% of his shots and 48.1% of his shots from behind the arc. Turner has been a pleasant surprise this year after being on the trading block to begin the season. Even if both players get cleared to play tonight, Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as a favorite — and Detroit has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. 25* NBA Central Division Underdog of the Month with the Detroit Pistons (559) plus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (560). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (555) and the Golden State Warriors (556). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (30-13) has won two straight games as well as eight of their last nine games after their 101-100 victory at New York as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Golden State (22-21) had their two-game winning streak snapped on Saturday in a 111-103 loss at Memphis as a 6.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Expect a lower-scoring game between teams who are both dealing with missing key players. The 76ers are without both Joel Embiid and Seth Curry tonight as both battle knee injuries. Philly will miss Curry’s outside shooting. And the Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris-led Sixers are playing better on defense with Embiid on the shelf. The 76ers have held their last five opponents to 43.1% shooting and just 101.8 PPG which is 7.9 PPG below what they are allowing for the season. Philadelphia has played four of their last five games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win against a divisional rival. The Sixers have also played four straight games Under the Total on the road as a favorite. Golden State was without Steph Curry on Saturday as he deals with a tailbone injury. The Warriors made only 34.4% of their shots against the Grizzlies without Curry. Curry is out again tonight — so Golden State lacks a reliable scorer. As it is, the Warriors have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Golden State should have fresh legs for their defensive efforts tonight — they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. And while the Warriors have attempted at least 90 shots in three straight games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after taking at least 90 shots in two straight games. Head coach Steve Kerr does get some reinforcements back with Kevon Looney, James Wiseman, and Eric Paschall back from quarantine. Kerr needs the bigs — and this should help their interior defense while freeing up Draymond Green to defend either Harris or Simmons. Golden State may play at a slower pace tonight since they do not have to resort to up-tempo small-ball with all their bigs on the shelf. The Warriors have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Golden State has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total against Eastern Conference teams — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as an underdog. Philadelphia has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (555) and the Golden State Warriors (556). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (550) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (549). THE SITUATION: Dallas (20-18) has lost two of their last three games after their 109-99 loss against the Clippers as a 1-point underdog on Monday. Los Angeles (26-15) has won two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS PLUS THE POINTS: We had the Clippers on Monday — and this is a good opportunity to zig-zag with the Mavs. Dallas was held scoreless in the last 3:15 minutes of that game while missing all five of their shots. They only took five free throws all game. Luka Doncic had an off-game for him by making only 9 of 23 shots from the field including just 4 of 11 from 3-point range. The Mavericks allowed the Clippers to make 50% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last ten games. While under-the-radar, Dallas has played much better on defense as of late under head coach Rick Carlisle. Over their last ten games, the Mavericks rank seventh in the NBA in Defensive Rating. Finally getting healthy has helped after this team has dealt with a host of injuries and their share of COVID issues. When Carlisle can start Doncic with a healthy Josh Richardson, Dorian Finney-Smith, Kristaps Porzingis, and Maxi Kleiber, they have won nine of those thirteen games. In their last 15 games, Dallas is 11-4 while ranking sixth in the league with their Net Efficiency Rating. They should bounce-back as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. They host the Clippers again where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. Los Angeles’ enjoyed the best shooting effort in their last five games by making 50% of their shots. But the Clippers have been consistently inconsistent — they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They are not at full strength with Patrick Beverley out with a knee injury and Serge Ibaka questionable with a back issue.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has covered the point spread in 28 of their last 47 games when avenging a loss at home to their opponents. 25* NBA Wednesday ESPN Game of the Month with the Dallas Mavericks (550) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (549). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Portland Trail Blazers (528) minus the point(s) versus the New Orleans Pelicans (527). THE SITUATION: Portland (22-16) has lost two of their last three games with their 114-112 upset loss at Minnesota on Sunday as a 5-point favorite. New Orleans (17-22) comes off a 135-115 upset victory against the Los Angeles Clippers as a 6-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TRAIL BLAZERS MINUS THE POINT(S): The Pelicans made a whopping 65.4% of their shots against the Clippers which was a season-best for them. I expect the Regression Gods to make an appearance tonight. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 10 straight games on the road after pulling off an upset victory by double-digits as an underdog of at least 6 points. The Pelicans have also failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games after a win by at least 15 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games after pulling off an upset win as a home underdog by at least 15 points. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win — so maintaining a basic level of consistency has been a problem for first-year head coach Stan Van Gundy. Additionally, the Pelicans do not fare well with a likely scoring-fest on the horizon. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a game where at least 245 combined points were scored. With this game featuring two of the bottom three teams in the NBA in Defensive Rating and the total opening at 240(!), this does not bode well for the Pelicans. This team struggles on defense despite having the coaching wizardry of Van Gundy who coached a pretty good Orlando team in the 1990s. New Orleans is third-to-last in the league by allowing their opponents to make 39.1% of their 3-pointers. Here comes the Blazers who are second in the NBA with a 46.5% mark from behind the arc and by generating 42.2% of their points from 3-point shots. The Pelicans go on the road where they are just 5-12 this season while allowing their home hosts to make 48.4% of their shots which results in 116.5 PPG. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they are 3-10-2 ATS in their last 15 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. The Pelicans have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games as an underdog. Portland only made 43.8% of their shots in their embarrassing upset to a Timberwolves team that has a strong claim in being the worst in the league. That was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. The Trail Blazers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their 6 games this season after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their 8 games this season after a loss on the road. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when playing their third game in four days. And while Portland has allowed at least 106 points in six straight games, they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 40 games after allowing at least 105 points in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 105 points in four straight games. They do get a shot in the arm with the expected return of C.J. McCollum who has been out for the last 25 games with a foot injury. In his 13 games this season, the star guard averaged 26.7 Points-Per-Game while contributing 5 Assists-Per-Game. Injuries have hit this team hard with Zach Collins and Jusef Nurkic still out and Harry Giles III upgraded to questionable tonight. Yet after a slow 10-9 start to the season, the Blazers have still won twelve of their last nineteen with Damian Lillard leading the way while getting nice help from Gary Trent and Carmelo Anthony. Portland returns home where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans will be without J.J. Reddick who is dealing with a neck injury — losing his 3-point shooting will not help Zion Williamson’s attempt to have his 2-pointers count more than the 3-pointers from Lillard and McCollum. The Pelicans were upset by the Blazers on February 17th by a 126-124 as a 4.5-point home favorite — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 opportunities to avenge an upset loss. 25* NBA TNT Tuesday Game of the Month with the Portland Trail Blazers (528) minus the point(s) versus the New Orleans Pelicans (527). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (511) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (512). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (25-15) has lost four of their last five games after their 135-116 upset loss at New Orleans as a 6-point favorite last night. Dallas (20-17) has won five of their last six games after their 116-113 upset victory at Denver as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles played their worst defensive game of the season yesterday by allowing the Pelicans to nail 65.4% of their shots. They made only 45.4% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. The Clippers should play much better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 125 points in their last contest. Additionally, Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Additionally, the Clippers have coved the point spread in 42 of their last 60 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 41 games after a loss at home. Playing without rest should not be a problem for this team as they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games when playing the second game in back-to-back days. The Clippers need to reverse their recent slide — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after losing five or six of their last seven games. LA has not covered the point spread in four of their last five games — but they have then covered the point spread in 8 straight games after only covering the point spread once or twice in their last six games. They stay on the road where they are now 12-9 but with an average winning margin of +4.4 PPG. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset win by double-digits as a road dog. The Mavericks have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread win. Dallas is playing much better basketball now that they are healthy again after dealing with a handful of players in quarantine — but they remain not very good on the defensive end of the court. They rank 24th in the NBA in Defensive Rating — and they tend to not do well when getting dragged into high-scoring games. The Mavericks have seen at least 219 combined points scored in three straight games. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after playing two straight games when at least 215 combined points were scored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after playing three straight games where at least 215 combined points were scored. The Mavericks return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games with the Total in the 220s.

FINAL TAKE: The Clippers will remember suffering their worst loss in franchise history on December 27th in a 124-73 loss at home as a 3-point favorite. LA was without Kawhi Leonard and Patrick Beverley in that game — and Serge Ibaka played only eight minutes. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 trips to Dallas — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against the Mavericks. 25* NBA Road Warrior of the Month on the Los Angeles Clippers (511) minus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the San Antonio Spurs (503) plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (504). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (18-14) lost two of their last three games going into the All-Star break after a 107-102 upset loss at home to Oklahoma City as a 7-point favorite on March 4th last Thursday. Dallas (18-16) went into the break having won three straight and five of their last six with an 87-78 victory against the Thunder last Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPURS PLUS THE POINTS: San Antonio should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. The Spurs have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after losing two of their last three games. And head coach Greg Popovich is very tough when his team has at least three days to rest and prepare as San Antonio has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when playing with at least three days of rest. The extended break allowed for Derrick White, LaMarcus Aldridge and Rudy Gay to all clear their COVID quarantine protocols. This is the first time all season (I believe) that the Spurs are at full health and strength. They are 9-4 on the road with an average winning margin of +3.9 PPG. San Antonio has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Spurs have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in six of these last seven situations. San Antonio has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games as a dog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Dallas played their best defensive game of the season last week by holding the Thunder to just 33.3% shooting. But the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing no more than 85 points in their last game. Dallas has played better over the last few weeks as they got healthier — but consistency has been a problem. The Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 29 games at home after a point spread victory in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games at home as a favorite -- and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: San Antonio will be looking to avenge a 122-117 loss at home to the Mavericks on January 22nd. The Spurs have covered the point spread in 42 of their last 59 opportunities to avenge a loss where they allowed at least 110 points under Popovich. 25* NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month with the San Antonio Spurs (503) plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (564) minus the points versus the Detroit Pistons (563). THE SITUATION: New York (18-18) saw their three-game winning streak end on Tuesday in their 119-93 upset loss at San Antonio as a 1.5-point favorite. Detroit (10-25) snapped a three-game losing streak last night with their 129-105 upset victory at Toronto as a 7.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS MINUS THE POINTS: Don’t read too much into the Pistons victory against the Raptors last night — Toronto could barely field a roster given their recent COVID outbreak. The Raptors were missing Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, and O.G. Agunoby amongst five players along with head coach Nick Nurse. A Detroit team consisting of reserves made 52.7% of their shots in what was the second-best shooting effort in their last seven games. Head coach Dwane Casey deserves credit for getting every ounce of effort and energy out of the roster he has been left with. But a letdown is likely after last night — especially with the team in New York (even in a pandemic) on the final night before the All-Star Game weekend break. As it is, Detroit is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they are 1-6-1 ATS in the last 8 games after a double-digit victory. The Pistons have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. Detroit entered the year with one of the worst starting fives in the NBA — and most of those guys are not available tonight. Jerami Grant has been their best player and leads the team with a 23.4 PPG average — but he is questionable with a quad (and why play him before the break). Derrick Rose was the team’s second-leading scorer — but he was traded to these Knicks. Josh Jackson is the third-leading scorer with a 13.5 PPG clip — and he is out with an illness that kept him out of last night’s game. The fourth-leading scorer, Blake Griffin, is not playing as he awaits being traded to another team that will become disappointed with his effort. Deion Wright, the team’s fifth-leading scorer with a 10.7 PPG mark, is out with a groin. Killian Hayes and Jahlil Okafor are both out with injuries. The Pistons lineup tonight will feature Wayne Ellington, Mason Plumlee, and Dennis Smith. As it is, this is a team that is 4-15 on the road while allowing their home hosts to score 114.6 PPG on 49.0% shooting. The Pistons have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. New York only made 40.7% of their shots on Tuesday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. But the Knicks have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road. New York has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Julius Randle only scored 14 points on 6 of 16 shooting which was his lowest scoring output since February 9th. Randle is scoring 23.1 PPG and pulling down 10.9 Rebounds-Per-Game in his breakout season. This team is playing surprisingly well for first-year head coach Tom Thibodeau. It all starts on defense for Thibs with the Knicks leading the league by allowing only 104.4 PPG — and their play on that end of the court is legit as they rank second in the NBA in Defensive Rating. Overall, New York is a respectable 14th in the league in Net Rating. They have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after winning two of their last three games. Now after playing their last two games on the road, they return home for their only home game before March 18th again. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home in Madison Square Garden — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after playing their last two on the road. New York has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road. The Knicks have some missing players with Elfrid Payton and Taj Gibson out — but they should get Derrick Rose back after he was held out of Tuesday’s game because of an inconclusive COVID test. Rose has injected some needed-offense into the team — he has averaged 16.3 PPG in his three previous games on 52.8% shooting and a 62.3% mark from behind the arc. Over their last five games, the Knicks are scoring 111.7 PPG on 47.7% shooting. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with the Total set in the 200 to 209.5 range. New York has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Motivation is also a concern on the last night before the All-Star Game break. The Knicks should be motivated to redeem themselves (especially Randle) from their loss on Tuesday — and a win tonight ensures a record above .500 going into the break. Detroit may want to avenge their 109-90 loss at home to New York on February 28th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 39 of their last 63 games when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Game of the Year with the New York Knicks (564) minus the points versus the Detroit Pistons (563). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Chicago Bulls (537) plus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (538). THE SITUATION: Chicago (15-18) has lost two in a row after their 118-112 loss to Denver as a 4.5-point underdog on Monday. New Orleans (15-19) has won three of their last five games with their 129-124 upset victory at home against Utah on Monday as a 6.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLS PLUS THE POINTS: Chicago played the Nuggets as they rallied from being down 15 points to take a six-point lead with eight minutes but let the game slip away. The Bulls did not play particularly well — they only made 44.7% of their shots which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last five games. They also allowed Denver to nail 52.9% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal mark in their last eight contests. This team continues to improve under first-year head coach Billy Donovan while Zach Lavigne continues to grow into being a legitimate star in this league. Chicago is still making 53.3% of their shots over their last five games — and their opponent’s field goal percentage of 46.0% during that span is improved over their 47.5% mark for the season. They should bounce-back to play well tonight — they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss while also covering the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games after a narrow loss by six points or less. The Bulls have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. And while they have allowed their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots, they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing two straight opponents to make 50% or more of their shots. This is Chicago’s sixth straight games against a Western Conference opponent — but not only have they covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after playing a Western Conference foe in their previous game but they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 road games after playing at least two straight non-conference games. They have been capable road warriors this season with an 8-7 mark away from home with an averaging winning margin of +3.0 PPG while shooting 49.0% of their shots. The Bulls have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games with the total set at 220 or higher. Furthermore, Chicago has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a losing record. New Orleans is a prime candidate for an emotional letdown after upsetting the hottest team in the league in the Jazz. They made 56.5% of their shots on Monday which was the best shooting effort in their last seven games — and they played their best defensive game in their last eleven by holding Utah to 45.5% shooting. As it is, the Pelicans have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by six points or less. New Orleans has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. Not only are the Pelicans consistently inconsistent (good for us) but they tend to not do well when they get comfortable in playing high-scoring games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after scoring at least 115 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. Additionally, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a game where at least 235 combined points were scored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a game where at least 245 combined points were scored. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games when favored by six points or less. The Pelicans have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Defense remains a problem of head coach Stan Van Gundy’s team as they have allowed their last five opponents to score 120.6 PPG on 47.9% shooting. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Chicago nailed a franchise-record 25 shots from behind the arc in a 129-116 win at home against New Orleans on February 10th. The Pelicans will want revenge — but the Bulls have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games played in the Big Easy. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Underdog of the Year with the Chicago Bulls (537) plus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (538). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (527) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (528). THE SITUATION: Phoenix (22-11) has won two straight games as well as five of their last six contests after their 118-99 win at Minnesota on Sunday as a 10-point favorite. Los Angeles (24-11) won their second-straight game on Sunday with their 117-91 win against Golden State as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS PLUS THE POINTS: Phoenix cruised against the Timberwolves despite shooting 49.4% from the field which sounds good — but it was actually the lowest field goal percentage in their last seven games (maybe costing us the Over that night!). The Suns are averaging a 50.8% shooting percentage in their last five games which is generating 121.0 PPG. They should build off their momentum tonight with the opportunity to knock off the reigning NBA champions. Phoenix has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after a double-digit win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 straight games on the road after a win by 10 or more points. The Suns have scored at least 106 points in 11 straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after scoring at least 105 points in at least five straight games. They also have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 18 games after scoring at least 115 points in their last contest. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after winning two of their last three — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games on the road after covering the point spread in their last two games. And while this is their third game on the road since Thursday, they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games when playing their third game in five days on the road. Phoenix has an 11-5 record on the road (versus their 11-6 record at home) — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games as an underdog. Los Angeles hit rock bottom last week when they were crushed on the road in Utah in a fourth straight loss. The champs picked themselves off the mat with two straight wins. Getting Dennis Schroder back from quarantine has helped. Yet consistency and focus remain an issue for this team even when they have had Anthony Davis healthy. The Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win at home. Los Angeles raced out to a 73-44 halftime lead against the Warriors on Sunday but they have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 40 games at home after owning a halftime lead of at least 20 points in their last game. The Lakers have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of the last 15 home games after a win by at least 10 points at home in their last game. Additionally, LA has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Lakers have not played great at home in the Staples Center without fans as they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their 18 home games this season.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against a team winning at least 60% of their games — and Phoenix has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Pacific Division Game of the Year with the Phoenix Suns (527) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (528). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (509) and the Chicago Bulls (510). THE SITUATION: Denver (18-15) has won two of their last three games with their 126-96 win at Oklahoma City as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. Chicago (15-17) had their three game winning streak snapped on Friday in a 106-97 loss at home to Phoenix as 6.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets played their best game on defense in their last eight contests by holding the Thunder to just 42.0% shooting from the field. They are still allowing their home hosts to make 48.2% of their baskets which is resulting in 111.6 PPG. But Jamal Murray has been finding some of the form he enjoyed in the bubble when he led Denver to the Western Conference Finals. He scored 26 points on Saturday — and he is averaging 30.1 PPG in his last nine games. The Nuggets have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Denver has also played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. The Nuggets have also played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after scoring at least 120 points in their last game. Denver is scoring 116.4 PPG over their last five games on 49.6% shooting. They have scored at least 110 points in six straight games — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Over the Total after scoring at least 105 points in five straight games. They stay on the road where they  have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total — and they have played 15 of their last 18 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record at home. The Nuggets have played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total with the number at 220 or higher. And in their last 11 games against teams with a losing record, Denver has played 9 of these games Over the Total. Chicago shot 49.4% from the field on Friday in what was the lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. Over their last five contests, the Bulls are making 52.7% of their shots which is generating 115.4 PPG in first-year head coach Billy Donovan’s up-tempo offense. The Bulls have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a loss at home. They stay at home where they are allowing their guests to score 114.8 PPG on 48.1% shooting. Chicago has played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total as an underdog. Additionally, the Bulls have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total against Western Conference foes.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 19 of their last 26 meetings Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games played in Chicago Over the Total. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Non-Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (509) and the Chicago Bulls (510). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (577) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (578). THE SITUATION: Phoenix (21-11) has won four of their last five games with their 106-97 win at Chicago as a 6.5-point favorite on Friday. Minnesota (7-27) has lost seven games in a row with their 128-112 loss at Washington as a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Suns made 50% of their shots on Friday yet it was the lowest shooting percentage in their last six games. This Phoenix offense is clicking — they are averaging 123.8 PPG over their last five contests on 52.5% shooting. The Suns have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after making at least 50% of their shots in two straight games. Phoenix has also played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Suns have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. And in their last 21 games after playing at least two in a row against Eastern Conference opponents, Phoenix has played 17 of these games Over the Total. This is the Suns’ sixth game since February 19th — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing their sixth or more game in a ten-day span. Minnesota has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 15 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a loss by at least 15 points. The Timberwolves have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. New head coach Chris Finch will likely want to address the play of his defense but he lacks short-term fixes. The T-Wolves have allowed their last five opponents to score 117.8 PPG on 47.0% shooting. Playing without a day off certainly will not help  — and Minnesota has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing the second game in back-to-back days. After being on the road for four straight games, they return home for the first time since February 19th — and the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. The Timberwolves have also played 27 of their last 40 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 10 games in Minnesota Over the Total. Phoenix should approach 120 points in this one which should carry the final score into the high 220s (or more). 25* NBA Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (577) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (578). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Antonio Spurs (552) plus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (551). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (16-12) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday in a 102-99 upset loss at home against Oklahoma State as a 1-point favorite. New Orleans (14-18) had their two-game winning streak end on Thursday in a 129-125 loss at Milwaukee as an 8-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPURS PLUS THE POINTS: San Antonio had not played February 14th when they took the court on Wednesday — and they had a handful of players still out due to COVID quarantine protocols including DeMar DeRozan. The Spurs still have Dejounte Murray, Patty Mills, Lonnie Walker IV leading the way — and no one gets more out of every player on the roster than head coach Gregg Popovich. When I received the news that DeRozan was upgraded to probable for tonight’s game, I signed off. DeRozan is having an incredible season, albeit under the radar. He is scoring 19.8 PPG while adding 5.0 Rebounds-Per-Game and 6.9 Assists-Per-Game. He is also playing every position but center while being able to guard effectively at all four positions. His flexibility allows the Spurs to play several different lineups to maximize match-up edges. This is a solid basketball team that plays hard every night — and they remain as well-coached from night-to-night as any team in the league. Against Stan Van Gundy? Mismatch (what does someone have to do to stop getting NBA head coaching jobs? Mark Jackson knows the answer to that). San Antonio will play well tonight as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with two days of rest. They return home to the AT&T Center for the first time since February 9th after their regular February exodus due to the San Antonio rodeo (PPD this year). The Spurs have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 home games as an underdog. Additionally, San Antonio has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 53 games after a loss on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss by 6 points or less. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. The Pelicans remain a disaster on defense under the guidance of defensive wizardry of Van Gundy and his 1996 principles being deployed in his first season in the Big Easy. New Orleans is second-to-last in the league in their Defensive Rating. And while it may be tempting to give Van Gundy a pass given the lack of a typical preseason, the Pelicans have allowed their last five opponents to make 51.0% of their shots for 124.0 PPG. The Pelicans have now played ten straight Overs — but this style of play is not helping this team. Not only has New Orleans failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after playing at least two straight Overs. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games when playing with one day of rest. They stay on the road where they are 5-11 — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 4 road games against teams with a losing record at home. They also allow their home hosts to make 48.5% of their shots which is generating 116.5 PPG for the home teams. Furthermore, the Pelicans have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored. J.J. Redick is doubtful tonight with a hamstring.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the Spurs. The lone exception during that stretch was a 98-95 win at home against San Antonio as a 4.5-point favorite on December 27th. The Spurs have covered the point spread in 44 of their last 59 games when avenging a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games when playing with revenge from a loss by three points or less. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Southwest Division Underdog of the Year with the San Antonio Spurs (552) plus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (551). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (539) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (540). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (23-11) has lost two of three after their 122-94 upset loss at Memphis as an 8-point favorite last night. Memphis (14-14) snapped a two-game losing streak with the win.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Grizzlies are getting healthy again with Brandon Clarke, Grayson Allen, and Justise Winslow back on the court and in the regular rotation. Ja Morant has missed eight games this season as well with an ankle injury. The team displayed their potential last night in a game where they were winning by 30 points at one point. Yet this effort was an outlier. The Grizzlies held the Clippers to 40.5% shooting in what was the best defensive performance of their season. They also made 54.3% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last 13 games. But Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit victory. The Grizzlies host this rematch where they have still failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a home underdog. Killian Tillie is listed as questionable tonight with a foot injury. And in Memphis’ last 8 games as an underdog, the Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these games. Los Angeles should play better on defense tonight after Memphis had the best field goal percentage in them in 12 games. The Clippers also had the worst shooting percentage on offense in their last 16 games. Yet LA is still ranked third in the NBA in Offensive Efficiency under first-year head coach Tyron Lue. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George combined to make only two of their nine shots from 3-point land. Leonard has been his typical excellent self this season — but it is George who has stepped up his game amidst off-season criticism to score 24.8 PPG while nailing 48.1% of his 3-pointers so far this year. The Clippers should step up with a strong effort tonight. They have covered the point spread in 40 of their last 56 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 35 games after a point spread loss. Los Angeles has also covered the points spread in 19 of their last 28 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 37 games after a loss on the road. Additionally, the Clippers have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a loss by at least 10 points. LA has been very good on the road with an 11-5 record and an average winning margin of +6.6 PPG. They are making 48.4% of their shots away from home which is generating 114.5 PPG. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 44 of their last 65 road games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games on the road when avenging a same-season loss. 25* NBA Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Clippers (539) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (540). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (571) minus (or plus) the Dallas Mavericks (572). THE SITUATION: Boston (15-15) looks to rebound from a 120-115 upset loss in overtime at New Orleans as a 2-point favorite on Sunday. Dallas (14-15) won their fifth game in their last six last night with their 102-92 win against Memphis as a 4.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINTS: Boston blew a 24-point lead on Sunday against the Pelicans. The Celtics made only 39.8% of their shots in what was the lowest shooting effort in their last four games. Boston should pick themselves up off the mat after that embarrassing result on national television. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Boston has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss on the road as a favorite. Head coach Brad Stevens’ team is struggling — but this group has been rarely been at full strength due to injuries. Marcus Smart is out with a calf injury but the group’s Big Three of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Kemba Walker will be on the court together for this game which has not been the case for many of their games this season. Consistency has been a problem — and the Celtics need help on their frontline. But Tatum and Brown are rising superstars in this league who are only 22 and 24-years old — the vision for general manager Danny Ainge is that this team will be elite for years with two of the top-ten players in the game over the next several years. Boston has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games after a narrow loss by 6 points or less. And in their last 5 games with the Total set at 235 or higher, they have covered the point spread in 4 of these contests. Dallas held the Grizzlies to just 39.4% shooting last night which was the best defensive effort in their last 19 games. The Mavericks are struggling at that end of the court — they rank 24th in Defensive Rating this season. They had not played since Valentine’s Day before last night — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when playing without rest. Dallas has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit win over a Southwest Division rival. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 home games after a win. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on their home court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Mavs have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 home games with the Total set at 220 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas was an overnight favorite but moved to the underdog with the news that Kristaps Porzingis is questionable with his knee. Even if Porzingis plays tonight, I like the Celtics — but his absence certainly helps. Boston has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 meetings with the Mavericks — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 trips to Dallas to face them. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Tuesday TNT Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (571) minus (or plus) the Dallas Mavericks (572). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (525) and the Philadelphia 76ers (526). THE SITUATION: Chicago (12-15) won their third game in their last four contests on Wednesday with their 105-102 win against Detroit as a 3-point favorite. Philadelphia (19-10) snapped a three-game losing streak on Wednesday with their 118-113 win against Houston as an 8.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: It was fourth straight games for the Bulls where they scored at least 105 points — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after scoring at least 105 points in at least three straight games. Chicago is seeing an average of 230 combined points scored in their games this season under first-year head coach Billy Donovan. They go back on the road where they are scoring 118.7 PPG on 49.2% shooting. They are also allowing their home hosts score 116.2 PPG on 46.6% shooting. The Bulls have played 7 of their last 9 games on the road Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 13 road games Over the Total with the number at 220 or higher. Additionally, Chicago has played 23 of their last 33 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and they have played 9 of their last 10 road games Over the Total as an underdog. The Bulls have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total as a dog overall — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Philadelphia shot 48.1% from the field on Wednesday which was tied for the lowest shooting effort in their last nine games. The 76ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. They did not have Ben Simmons against the Rockets who missed the game because of an illness — but he should be back on the court tonight. Philly stays at home where they make 49.5% of their shots en route to 118.4 PPG. They allow their guests to score 112.4 PPG. The Sixers have played 8 of their last 10 home games Over the Total — and they have played 22 of their last 29 home games Over the Total as a favorite. Additionally, the Over is 13-6-1 in the last 20 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: UPDATE: Simmons is not playing tonight due to the illness that has dogged him this week (despite having the “probable” listing). No big deal (and this possibility is why I liked the Over versus a potential Philly side play) — the Over is still a strong technical play and what the Sixers lose with his offense, they also lose his elite defensive talents tonight which should ensure the Bulls approach their road scoring average. These two teams have played 14 of their last 20 meetings Over the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games in Philadelphia Over the Total. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Friday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (525) and the Philadelphia 76ers (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (536) minus the point(s) versus the Denver Nuggets (535). THE SITUATION: Boston (13-13) has lost two straight games after their 104-91 upset loss at Washington as a 7-point underdog on Sunday. Denver (15-11) has won three in a row with their 122-105 upset win against the Los Angeles Lakers Sunday night as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINT(S): Boston shot only 35.6% of their shots on Sunday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. That was the Celtics’ second-straight upset loss after getting stung by Detroit on Friday in a 108-102 loss as a 7-point underdog. The consensus from the players is that they simply need to work harder. Boston has lost ten of their last fifteen games — but injuries have played a role. Marcus Smart is still out with his calf injury after missing the last couple of weeks. But Kemba Walker and Jaylen Brown are back on the court after missing time to join Jayson Tatum to form their big three. Brown and Tatum are emerging into superstars in this league. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss. Boston has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games after a point spread loss. Boston has played two straight Unders — but they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 29 games after playing two straight Unders. And while the Celtics have only covered the point spread once in their last five games, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after not covering the point spread in three of their last four games. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games when favored by up to 6 points. Denver may be due for a letdown after upset the defending NBA champions — they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a double-digit win and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a win by at least 15 points. The Nuggets have also failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 31 road games after a double-digit win. Additionally, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 36 games after winning at least two in a row. And they have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 47 games after scoring at least 120 points in their last game including six of these eight occasions this season. The Nuggets are ravaged with injuries: Will Barton, Paul Millsap, Gary Harris, and PJ Dozier are all out with Monte Morris questionable with a shoulder. Those players are two starters and another three important rotation players. Denver goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog. Boston has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Non-Conference Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (536) minus the point(s) versus the Denver Nuggets (535). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Indiana Pacers (533) minus points versus the Detroit Pistons (534). THE SITUATION: Indiana (12-13) has lost four games in a row after their 104-94 upset loss at Brooklyn last night as a 1.5-point favorite. Detroit (6-18) snapped a four-game losing streak on Tuesday with their 122-111 upset win against the Nets as a 5.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACERS MINUS THE POINTS: Indiana made only 39.1% of their shots last night in what was the worst offensive effort of their season. The Pacers’ starting five scored only 51 points in that game. Indiana should play much better tonight. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their 8 games this season after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit upset loss. Indiana has not covered the point spread in four straight games as well as six of their last seven — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. And the Pacers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing without a day of rest. Indiana stays on the road where they are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 road games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games as a favorite. The Pacers are without T.J. Warren and Caris LeVert who they acquired in the Victor Oladipo trade — but they have still taken care of business with a 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40%. The Pistons play at a fast tempo who averages 89 shot attempts-per-game — but Indiana has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 road games against teams who average at least 88 shots-per-game. Detroit made 56% of their shots on Tuesday which was the best shooting effort of their season in what was just the third time all season that they made at least 50% of their shots — but they are just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a straight-up win. They are also 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a win by at least 10 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after an upset win by at least 10 points. The Pistons have also failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 38 games after a point spread win. They did allow the Nets to make 50% of their shots on the heels of allowing the Laker to make 56.0% of their shots in their previous game. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots. The Pistons are also 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing with one day of rest. Head coach Duane Casey is doing a fine job with one of the worst rosters in the league. Detroit is usually competitive — but they lost one of their best players over the weekend when they shipped Derrick Rose to New York for the underachieving Dennis Smith who was one of the worst players in the NBA last season before getting relegated to the end of the bench for the Knicks (!) this year. Maybe Smith can be salvaged but that will be a long-term project. Detroit shoots only 42.7% when playing at home so their shooting should come back to earth when now playing a team that attempts to play defense (versus the Kyrie Irving/James Harden Nets’ last night). The Pistons have scored 251 points in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 110 points in two straight games. Detroit is also 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Pistons have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games against Central Division foes. And while this is a team that plays hard most nights, they have failed to cover the point spread in all 3 of their expected close games this season. Look for Indiana to take care of this business in this winnable game. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Central Division Game of the Year with the Indiana Pacers (533) minus points versus the Detroit Pistons (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (553) plus the point(s) versus the New Orleans Pelicans (534). Memphis (9-8) has lost two in a row after their 115-103 upset loss at home to Houston on Thursday as a 4-point favorite. New Orleans (9-12) has won two in a row with their 114-113 upset win at Indiana last night as a 1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES PLUS THE POINTS: Memphis had been on a seven-game winning streak where they held allowed only 104.3 PPG before losing their last two games against the Rockets and Indiana by double-digits. The Grizzlies made only 42.5% of their shots which was the worst offensive effort in their last ten games. This group had been doing better in provide offensive support for their superstar, Ja Morant. Memphis has still made 49.9% of their shots in their last five games while averaging 117.8 PPG over that span. The Grizzlies’ starters combined to make only 34.6% of their shots with Morant only 6 of 15 for 15 points. Memphis should respond with a better effort tonight. They have covered the point spread in 4 of the last 5 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss at home. The Grizzlies have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after losing two in a row by 10 or more points. Taylor Jenkins is one of the most underrated coaches in the NBA. Even with this team playing without two of their top three players, Jaren Jackson, Jr. and Justise Winslow, while being hit pretty hard by COVID quarantining protocols, Memphis remains seventh in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency. Defense travels — and the Grizzlies are 6-2 on the road with an average winning margin of +8.5 PPG while making 48.5% of their shots. Memphis has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. Killian Tillie has been downgraded to out with a foot issue and Brandon Clarke is questionable with a calf — but reinforcements are returning for Jenkins with Jonas Valanciunas and Grayson Allen upgraded to probable after being in quarantine. New Orleans has pulled off two straight upset victories against Phoenix and the Pacers last night — and they have won four of their last six games. The Pelicans made 53.9% of their shots last night in what was the best shooting effort of the season. They also held Indiana to 44.1% shooting in what was the best defensive performance in their last five games — although the Pacers did make 20 of their 42 shots from downtown. New Orleans has still allowed their last five opponents to make 47.5% of their shots which has resulted in 116.8 PPG. The Pelicans are 25th in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency under the first-year of head coach Stan Van Gundy. New Orleans’ starting five logged-in 162:01 combined minutes last night — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when their starting five combined to play at least 160 minutes the previous day. The Pelicans have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a narrow win by 3 points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning two of their last three games. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the points spread in 7 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Memphis has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of the last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when laying the points. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Southwest Division Game of the Year with the Memphis Grizzlies (553) plus the point(s) versus the New Orleans Pelicans (534). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (524) minus the points versus the Washington Wizards (523). THE SITUATION: Miami (7-14) has lost two straight games as well as seven of their last eight with their 103-100 upset loss at home to Washington on Wednesday as a 9-point favorite. Washington (5-13) has won two of their last three games.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT MINUS THE POINTS: It has been a disastrous start to the season for the Heat who have been hit as hard as any team in the league by injuries and COVID quarantined absences. Yet head coach Erik Spoelstra’s team is slowly getting close to 100% again. Tyler Herro played his first game since returning from quarantine on Wednesday. Jimmy Butler played his third game that night after missing ten games from quarantine. Herro scored 20 points with Butler adding 19 points — so they are getting back to playing-shape again. Miami will be without Avery Bradley and Maurice Harkless still who are still injured. Bam Adebayo has been the lone bright spot for this team this season as he continued to develop his game into becoming one of the best big men in the NBA. Perhaps the Heat were due to take a step back after their surprising run to the NBA Finals in the bubble last fall. But they are a much better team than this — and it is time for this club to get back to their winning ways as they make a run to make the playoffs now that they are getting their players back. This is Miami’s final game in a six-game homestand so getting a victory tonight will be important for morale moving forward. The Heat made only 43.4% of their shots on Wednesday which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. But this remains a team that has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after an upset loss to an NBA Southeast Division rival. That loss to the Wizards came on the heels of them getting upset on Monday at home to Charlotte — but Miami has also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after suffering two straight upset losses. Additionally, the Heat have covered the pint spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a loss to a divisional rival. And they have not only covered the point spread in 29 of their last 45 games after a straight-up loss but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a narrow loss by 3 points or less. Washington may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after an upset win as a road underdog. The Wizards have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a victory against a Southeast Division opponent. Washington is also just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a point spread victory. The Wizards get Russell Westbrook back tonight after he was rested on Wednesday — but they are not likely to replicate the 40.5% shooting effort from 3-point land again tonight even with Westbrook back. Washington simply does not have a good supporting cast for Westbrook and Bradley Beal especially after Thomas Bryant suffered a season-ending ACL injury. Raul Neto has been downgraded to out tonight with a groin. The Wizards are second-to-last in Defensive Efficiency. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they are just 17-37-1 ATS in their last 55 road games against teams with a losing record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Washington has only won two of their seven games since their two-week hiatus because of their COVID outbreak. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. Look for Miami to rebound with a strong effort. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Southeast Division Game of the Year with the Miami Heat (524) minus the points versus the Washington Wizards (523). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:35 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (518) plus the point(s) versus the Utah Jazz (517). THE SITUATION: Denver (11-8) had their five-game winning streak snapped on Friday with their 119-109 upset loss at San Antonio as a 4-point favorite. Utah (15-4) has won and covered the point spread in eleven straight games after their 120-101 victory at home against Dallas as a 4-point favorite on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS PLUS THE POINT(S): After a 1-4 start to the season, Denver has been quite good by winning ten of their next fourteen games. They went into the 4th quarter in San Antonio with a lead before collapsing in those final 12 minutes. It would have been quite an accomplishment to sweep that five-game road trip. Now the Nuggets return home for the first time since January 19th — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. Denver allowed the Spurs to make 54.3% of their shots from the field which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. Defensive has been the Achilles’ heel for this team under head coach Michael Malone — but they have been a top-ten unit in defensive efficiency since their 1-4 start. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss. The Nuggets have covered the point spread in five of their last six games (and six of their last eight) — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Nikola Jokic has been a double-double machine with nineteen straight games with at least 10 points and 10 rebounds. Garry Harris has stepped up with a 46.5% shooting clip from 3-point range over his last nine games. Denver has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the total set in the 210s. Utah held the struggling Mavericks to just 43.0% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last six games. The Jazz now go back on the road after playing their last six games at home. Seven of their last games during their winning streak were at home — and two of those four road games were at lowly Detroit and Cleveland. Utah is just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. The Jazz are also banged up with Donovan Mitchell and Derrick Favors missing the last two games with a concussion and back issues. Head coach Quin Snyder has received some good efforts from role players stepping up — but the challenge rises playing on the road against a perennial Western Conference playoff team.

FINAL TAKE: Denver will have revenge on their minds after losing at home to Utah by a 109-105 score as a 1.5-point home underdog on January 17th — and the Nuggets have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a loss at home. 25* NBA Underdog of the Month with the Denver Nuggets (518) plus the point(s) versus the Utah Jazz (517). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (514) minus the points versus the Detroit Pistons (513). THE SITUATION: Golden State (10-9) has lost three of their last five games after their 114-93 loss at Phoenix as a 4.5-point underdog on Thursday. Detroit (5-14) has won two of their last three games with their 107-92 upset victory against the Los Angeles Lakers on Thursday as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: The Pistons held the Lakers to just 40.9% shooting in what was the best defensive effort in their last four games. Detroit caught LA coasting on a long road trip — but not it is them who went on the road in the first game of a five-game west coast swing. The Pistons are due for a letdown — they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset win as a home underdog getting at least 6 points. Detroit is also 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a double-digit win — and they are just 7-15-2 ATS in their last 24 games after a straight-up victory. They go back on the road where they are just 1-7 this season with an average losing margin of -6.5 PPG. The Pistons are allowing their home hosts to shoot 50.7% from the field which is translating into 119.0 PPG. Detroit is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games — and they are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Pistons have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 31 road games against a team with the Total set at 220 or higher. Golden State made only 38.4% of their shots on Thursday which was tied for the worst shooting effort in their last 17 games. The Warriors have rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when playing with one day of rest. Golden State returns home where they are 7-4 while scoring 115.2 PPG and making 46.7% of their shots — and they play much better defense at home where they limit their guests to 42.4% shooting. The Warriors have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight home games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. Golden State has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games this season with the total set at 220 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Detroit may have the worst roster in the league but they play hard almost every night. But this is a point spread around 5 points — and the Warriors have taken care of business against the bottom of the league as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less. Golden State won in Detroit on December 29th by a 116-106 score — and the Pistons have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games when avenging a loss at home. 25* NBA Game of the Month with the Golden State Warriors (514) minus the points versus the Detroit Pistons (513). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Chicago Bulls (516) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (515). THE SITUATION: Chicago (7-9) had their three-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 101-90 loss at home against the Los Angeles Lakers as a 9.5-point underdog. Boston (9-6) ended their three-game losing streak yesterday with their 141-103 thrashing of Cleveland at home as a 6-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLS PLUS THE POINTS: Chicago shot only 39.3% from the field against the Lakers which their lowest field goal percentage in their last 14 games — and their 90 points scored was a season-low. The Bulls should respond with a big effort as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. Chicago has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread defeat. And in their last 9 games playing with one day of rest, the Bulls have covered the point spread in all 9 games. Chicago is starting to find a rhythm under first-year head coach Billy Donovan. They had averaged 121.7 PPG in their three-game winning streak. They are making 47.5% of their shots in the Donovan offense — and they rank 9th in Offensive Efficiency in the league over their last ten games. They will be without Wendell Carter who is doubtful with a thigh injury while Otto Porter may get the night off for rest. But they will have Zach LaVine who is thriving under Donovan’s system by scoring 26.8 PPG — and second-year pro Coby White is developing into a nice compliment. There is a good vibe with this team who is becoming competitive every night. The Bulls have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games as an underdog. Boston made 55.9% of their shots yesterday which was the best shooting effort in their last eight games — and the 40% field goal percentage they limited the Cavaliers to was tied for a season-low for them so far this season. Yet the Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit victory. This Boston team has been uninspiring this season — they rank just 17th in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency. They lost an important piece in the offseason with Gordon Hayward signing with Charlotte. They added Tristan Thompson — but he has been a disappointment and may be past his prime. Rookie Payton Pritchard has been a nice surprise to how quickly he has acclimated to the NBA — but he is out with a knee injury. Romeo Langford is also questionable with a knee. Head coach Brad Stevens does expect Jayson Tatum to return to the court after COVID quarantine — and who knows if he will have rust. But Stevens is using his return to give Kemba Walker the night off — and he is a vital piece to the equation in their Big Three since his 3-point shooting makes things easier for Tatum and Jaylon Brown. The Celtics go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Bulls have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games in expected high-scoring games with the total set at 220 or higher — and the Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Over/Under at 220 or higher. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Underdog of the Month with the Chicago Bulls (516) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (515). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the San Antonio Spurs (546) plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (545). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (8-7) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday in their 121-99 loss at Golden State as a 1-point underdog. Dallas (7-7) ended their three-game losing streak on Wednesday in their 124-112 victory at Indiana as a 2-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPURS PLUS THE POINTS: San Antonio may be coming off their worst game of the season. They shot only 37.2% from the field which was their lowest field goal percentage of the year. They also allowed the Warriors to nail 50.5% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last nine games. The Spurs have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, San Antonio has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a double-digit loss. The Spurs have played four of their seven losses within 7 points — they are playing close games in their defeats. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 home games as an underdog getting up to 6 points. Dallas made 52.6% of their shots on Wednesday which was not only their best shooting effort of the season but the first time all year where they made at least 50% of their shots. They also held the Pacers to just 44.6% of their shots in what was the best defensive effort in their last four games. But the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after a win on the road by double-digits. Dallas does have Kristaps Porzingis back on the court after he was out to begin the season — he scored 27 points while adding 12 rebounds on Wednesday. But head coach Rick Carlisle is still dealing with a depleted roster given COVID protocols. The team will once again be without Josh Richardson, Maxi Kleber, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Dwight Powell tonight as they remain in quarantine. The Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% at home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: San Antonio has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 home games when listed in that +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month with the San Antonio Spurs (546) plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (545). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (559) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (560). THE SITUATION: Phoenix (7-4) takes the court again for the first time since January 11th when they were upset at Washington by a 128-107 score as a 6-point favorite. Memphis (6-6) comes off a 106-104 win against Philadelphia as a 2-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: Phoenix has not played in the last seven days because of the COVID outbreak in the Wizards’ organization which forced them to quarantine after exposure to their players in that game. This Suns team should be anxious to get the bad taste out of their mouth of what was probably their worst game of the season. They allowed Washington to make 52.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort so far in this campaign. They only made 44.8% of their shots which was their lowest field goal percentage in their last seven games. Yet Phoenix has covered the point spread in 7 straight games after an upset loss on the road where they were favored — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after an upset loss by at least 20 points as a road favorite. The Suns went from a talented upstart that went 8-0 in the bubble this summer to a legitimate threat in the Western Conference with the veteran Chris Paul guiding the emerging stars in Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges, and DeAndre Ayton. Second-year head coach Monty Williams is also getting valuable contributions from his bench from players like Cameron Johnson. Phoenix ranks sixth in the NBA in their net efficiency rating. They have scored at least 105 points in nine straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games on the road after scoring at least 105 points in four straight games. The Suns have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road. Phoenix has also coved the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not playing more than three games in the last ten days. Memphis has won four straight games with their victory against the 76ers. They go Ja Morant in that game with their second-year superstar scoring 17 points with six assists. The Grizzlies did get out-rebounded by 15 rebounds in that game. This team misses Jaren Jackson and Justise Winslow who are both out with injuries — and they will be without Jonas Valuncianas for this game who is out due to COVID quarantining protocols. Ayton may be poised for a big night against what is left of the Memphis frontcourt. The Grizzlies have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after being outrebounded by at least 15 boards in their last game. Memphis has a great head coach in Taylor Jenkins who gets the most out of his talent. But the problem Jenkins faces is when his group goes against the top rosters in the league where the consistent effort from his players is not enough — and that is made even worse with all the players out for this one. The Grizzlies are playing their fourth game in ten days — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games when playing no more than their fourth game in ten days. Memphis is only 2-5 at home this season with an average losing margin of -5.0 PPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 home games. And while the Grizzlies launch 31 shots from 3-point land per game, the Suns have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games against teams who attempt at least 18 shots from 3-point land per game.

FINAL TAKE: Phoenix is missing some bench pieces for this one with Dario Saric and Jalen Smith out still because of quarantine protocols — but they have their starting five intact. The Suns have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when favored. 25* NBA TNT Game of the Month with the Phoenix Suns (559) minus the points versus the Memphis Grizzlies (560). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Charlotte Hornets (545) and the New Orleans Pelicans (546). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (3-5) snapped a three-game losing streak on Wednesday with their 102-94 upset win at Atlanta as a 5.5-point underdog. New Orleans (4-4) has lost two in a row with their 111-110 upset loss to Oklahoma City on Wednesday as an 8-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pelicans nailed 49.4% of their shots on Wednesday which was their second-best mark all season. But they also allowed the Thunder to make 46.0% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games. First-year head coach Stan Van Gundy was livid with the effort of his team that allowed 27 fast break points. Expect a better effort on defense on getting back to the other end of the court tonight after this team has been upset twice in a row after a narrow 2-point loss to Indiana before their setback to OKC. New Orleans has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after suffering two straight upset losses at home. The Pelicans have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. They also have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. Van Gundy has made an immediate impact on the defensive improvement of this team — they are not fouling as much, they are crashing the defensive glass, and they are working harder in defending the perimeter. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or lower. Charlotte played their best defensive game of the season on Wednesday with them holding the Hawks to just 37.5% shooting. Third-year head coach James Borrego hopes that effort will carry over tonight. The Hornets have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Despite the win, Charlotte is struggling to score baskets. They are making only 42.5% of their shots in their last five games which has resulted in only 105.2 PPG. The Under is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games when playing with one day of rest — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road when playing their fourth game in seven days.

FINAL TAKE: The Hornets have played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total as an underdog — and New Orleans has played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as a favorite. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Charlotte Hornets (545) and the New Orleans Pelicans (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (520) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (519). THE SITUATION: Toronto (0-3) has started the new season with three straight losses after their 100-93 loss at Philadelphia as a 1.5-point underdog on Tuesday. New York (2-2) pulled off their second-straight upset victory with their 95-86 win at Cleveland as a 3.5-point underdog on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS MINUS THE POINTS: It has been a rough start for head coach Nick Nurse’s team. They lost Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol in free agency. They have had to make Tampa Bay their temporary home given COVID protocols in Canada prohibiting travel to and from the United States. Yet this remains a talented basketball team with Pascal Siakam, Kevin Lowry, and quality depth. They added Aron Baynes to compensate for the loss of Ibaka and Gasol (but they could probably use another big man). The Raptors have been outrebounded by at least eight boards in three straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after getting outrebounded by at least 5 boards in three straight games. Toronto only made 35.6% of their shots on Tuesday against the 76ers which was their worst shooting effort this season. But they did hold the Sixers to only a 38.1% field goal percentage which was their best defensive effort of the season — so that is encouraging. The Raptors have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 37 games after a point spread loss. And while Toronto has yet to cover the point spread this season, they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after not covering the point spread in at least three straight games. New York played their best defensive game of the season on Tuesday by holding the Cavaliers to just 36.4% shooting. That defensive effort helped that game finish miles below the 216 point total — but the Knicks have failed to cover the point spread in 49 of their last 77 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. That win came on the heels of their 130-110 upset win against Milwaukee on Sunday. But new coach Tom Thibodeau has seen his teams fail to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after pulling off two straight upset wins. Despite these early upsets, this is still a major rebuilding project in New York. They committed a troubling 25 turnovers against Cleveland while enduring a -12 net turnover margin in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after turning the ball over at least ten more times than their opponent. This Knicks team is also dealign with a bunch of injuries with Dennis Smith, Jr., Frank Ntilikina, and rookie Obi Toppin all out and Austin Rivers questionable with a groin.

FINAL TAKE: The Knicks made be just what the doctor ordered for Nurse and this Raptors team. Toronto has won eight straight games against New York while covering the point spread in six of these games. I don’t love that this game is being played in Tampa Bay — but the Raptors have played a game already in their new home this season and we would likely be laying 12 or so points if this game was being played in Toronto (and I would be investing in this situation still). The circumstances here are too good to pass up. 25* NBA Game of the Month with the Toronto Raptors (520) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (519). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (574) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (573). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (2-2) got a small measure of revenge against a Heat team that eliminated them from the playoffs in the fall with their 144-97 blowout win in Miami as a -6.5-point favorite. Miami (1-2) has lost two of their first three games this season.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT PLUS THE POINTS: The Bucks played as if they had been visualizing every 3-point attempt sinking for them since they got eliminated by the Heat in the bubble in last year’s playoffs. Milwaukee made an NBA record 29 shots from behind the arc while nailing 56.9% of their 51 3-point attempts. Needless to say, the Regression Gods will be visiting tonight. The issue is how far down to earth will the Bucks play again tonight? Their team personality suggests they will suffer a significant emotional letdown. Milwaukee is 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a double-digit win — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in the four games after a victory. The Bucks have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. And in their last 6 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game, Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread all 6 times. I looked the Bucks closely — I got scared off for two reasons. First, even after last night’s triumph, Milwaukee has still failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 30 road games when favored by up to 6 points. The second reason I backed off was that Miami was playing without Jimmy Butler who is dealing with an ankle injury. While the Heat are obviously better with Butler leading the team, I was concerned that the oddsmakers and betting market would overcompensate for his absence. Butler has been ruled out tonight — which makes me like the Miami side even more in this rematch situation. With Bam Aqebayo and Goran Dragic leading the way for a team whose depth remains a strength, there is plenty of talent to keep things close tonight. As head coach Erik Spoelstra indicated after the game, his team did not match the Bucks’ intensity level last night. They also did a poor job early in their 3-point defense with Spoelstra indicating that the Bucks’ first 15 shots from downtown were “right in their wheelhouse.” Both of those issues will be corrected tonight. The Heat have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 130 points in their last game. And while they allowed a whopping 46 points in the first quarter en route to going to the locker room at halftime with a 83-57 hole, they also have covered the point spread in 4 of 5 games after trailing by at least 20 points at halftime. Miami has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a loss by at least 30 points. As it is, this has been a resilient group under Spoelstra. The Heat are 38-14-1 ATS in their last 53 games after a straight-up loss — and this includes them covering the point spread in twenty-six of their last thirty-four games after a setback. Miami has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by at least 10 points on their home court. The Heat made only 46.8% of their shots after nailing at least 50.6% of their shots in their first two games. I think Miami improved their roster by bringing in Moe Harmless for Jae Crowder while also adding the criminally-underrated Avery Bradley. The Heat also committed an unsightly 22 turnovers last night which they should clean up tonight. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee had not looked great early in the season with two losses to Boston and New York along with a win against a Golden State team that may be in for another long year. Chemistry is an issue after significant roster turnover after failing to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. Expect a close game and don’t be surprised with a Heat upset — but (always) take the points for some insurance especially with the Heat playing without Butler who is so clutch down the stretch. 25* NBA Underdog of the Month with the Miami Heat (574) plus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (573). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (567) and the Phoenix Suns (568). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (2-1) has won two of their last three games with their 98-95 win at San Antonio as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Phoenix (2-1) rebounded from their first loss in nine games going back to the bubble by avenging their loss to the Kings with a 116-110 win in Sacramento as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Suns made 48.9% of their shots which was the best shooting mark so far in their three games this season. But Phoenix has played 33 of their last 52 games Under the Total after scoring at least 115 points in their last game. The Suns saw the Kings make 47.4% of their shots which was their worst defensive effort of the young season as well. Phoenix has played of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win against a Pacific Division rival — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit win on the road. Now after playing their last two games on the road, the Suns return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 12 home games Under the Total when favored. New Orleans has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread win. This game flew Under the 227.5 point total as well — and the Pelicans have played 25 of their last 37 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. New Orleans made only 38.3% of their shots which is concerning since they made only 39.7% of their shots in their previous game at Miami. They go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total. The Pelicans have also played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage at 60% or higher — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has seen only 204.7 combined points in their first three games — and Phoenix has seen only 211.0 combined points in their first three games. While matchups make fights, the Pelicans are clearly emphasizing defense under first-year head coach Stan Van Gundy and the Suns’ improvement in the bubble that seems to be carrying over was in part because of improved emphasis on their defensive play (particularly in the emergence of Mikal Bridges). Nice value here. 25* NBA TNT Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (567) and the Phoenix Suns (568). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (541) and the Brooklyn Nets (542). THE SITUATION: Memphis (0-2) has lost their first two games of the season after their 122-112 upset loss to Atlanta as a 2-point favorite. Brooklyn (2-1) lost their first game of the season yesterday with their 106-104 upset loss at Charlotte as an 11.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Grizzlies have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Memphis has also played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Furthermore, the Grizzlies have played 20 of their last 25 games Under the Total after allowing at least 120 points in their last game. Memphis is throwing up a bunch of shots — they have launched 95 and 93 shots in their first two games. But the Grizzlies have played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total after taking at least 90 shots in two straight games. Furthermore, Memphis has played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning  percentage over 60% — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. Brooklyn has made it point to play outstanding defense according to Kevin Durant. They have held their first three opponents to just 39.9% shooting — and these three foes have scored only 100.0 PPG against them. The Hornets shot 44.8% from the field which was the worst defensive performance for the Nets this season. Look for this Brooklyn team to tighten things up on defense. They have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a loss by three points or less — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Nets have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing without rest. UPDATE: Head coach Steve Nash has announced that both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving will get the night off given load management after playing yesterday. With the team already missing Dinwiddie, that is plenty of scoring not available tonight. The team trends above capture the personality of this Nets’ team playing in the bubble without Durant and Irving last season — so the Under situation remains very good.

FINAL TAKE: Brooklyn suffered terrible news earlier today with the announcement that Spencer Dinwiddie will be out the season with a torn ACL that he suffered yesterday. Memphis has played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total with the number set at 230 or higher. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (541) and the Brooklyn Nets (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (578) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (577). THE SITUATION: Miami (0-1) looks to rebound from their 113-107 upset loss at Orlando on Wednesday as a 4.5-point favorite. New Orleans (1-0) looks to build off their 113-99 upset victory at Toronto as a 4-point  underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT MINUS THE POINTS: The defending Eastern Conference champions were a bit flat in their 2020-21 season debut. They turned the ball over 22 times in a sloppy effort against the Magic. The spotlight of national television should help Miami tighten things up this afternoon. This team has been consistently good under head coach Erik Spoelstra after disappointing efforts. Miami has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a loss to a Southeast Division rival — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after an upset loss to a divisional opponent. Additionally, the Heat have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 33 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after a narrow loss by 6 points or less. Additionally, Miami has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 32 home games as a favorite, the Heat are 21-10-1 ATS. New Orleans may be due for a letdown in their first game under new head coach Stan Van Gundy as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up victory. The Pelicans have also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 23 games on the road after an upset victory by at least 10 points. New Orleans has Zion Williamson but they traded away Jrue Holliday to Milwaukee while getting Eric Bledsoe. I am not sure why Van Gundy keeps getting jobs after doing nothing in his last tenure with Detroit. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Pelicans have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 trips to Miami to play the Heat. This is a nice early situation for us. 25* NBA ESPN Game of the Month with the Miami Heat (578) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (577). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (709) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (710) in Game Five of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (67-23) took a 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals on Tuesday with their 102-96 victory over the Heat. Miami (57-35) looks to keep their championship dreams alive in this must-win game for them. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Heat were able to get Bam Adebayo back on the court in Game Four where he played over 33 minutes. With the two days of rest since that game, Adebayo should be able to at least match that amount of time on the court tonight. As I argued for Game Two last Friday (our NBA Total of the Year), playing without Adebayo would have a significant impact on a higher-scoring game. The highest two scoring games in this series were Games Two and Three which Adebayo did not play — 238 and 219 combined points were scored in those two games. Adebayo’s return to the court leads to lower scoring games. For starters, he is Miami’s best interior defender. Anthony Davis can almost score at will if he is being defended by Meyers Leonard or Kelly Olynyk. But Leonard and Olynyk are both capable outside shooters that Adebayo. Head coach Erik Spoelstra has his team play at a faster pace when Adebayo is not on the court. In all, Adebayo’s presence on the court tonight means better defense for the Heat along with a slower pace and less 3-point shooting. Miami has been outrebounded by seven boards in each of the four games in this series. The Heat have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after being outrebounded by at least five boards in three straight games. Miami has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with at least two days of rest. And in their last 6 playoff games when trailing in the series, the Heat have played 5 of these games Under the Total. Los Angeles has played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a victory by 6 points or less. Additionally, the Lakers have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread. Head coach Frank Vogel made a nice coaching adjustment on Tuesday by giving Anthony Davis the defensive assignment against Jimmy Butler. Not only does this make Butler’s job scoring at the rim more of a challenge but Davis was playing off Butler at the top of the key while seemingly daring him to take 3-pointers. Yet Butler only laughed three shots from downtown — missing all three attempts. Miami ended that game with a 42.7% field goal percentage which was tied for the lowest shooting mark in their last fourteen games. The Lakers have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after outrebounding their opponent by at least 5 boards in three straight games.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total. Expect another lower-scoring game. 25* NBA Friday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (709) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (710). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (707) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (708) in Game Four of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (66-23) lost their first game in the NBA Finals on Sunday with their 115-104 upset loss as a 9-point favorite. Miami (57-34) still trails by a 2-1 margin in this series. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles has responded with victories in all three of their postseason losses this year — and their average winning margin in those games is+13 Points-Per-Game. They have also covered the point spread in all 3 games this season when they lost by double-digits as a favorite laying at least 6 points. The Lakers were flat in Game Three. They shot just 43% from the field which was their lowest field goal percentage in their last twelve games. They allowed the Heat to make 51.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive performance in their last five games. After committing only ten turnovers in Game Two, LA turned the ball over ten times in just the 1st quarter in Game Three en route to 20 turnovers for the game. Anthony Davis was slowed by committing three personal fouls in the first half. He only played 33 minutes and scored only 15 minutes after scoring at least 32 points in the first two games of this series. Davis was simply not very active on Sunday as he attempted only nine shots despite the Heat lacking credible defenders inside the paint given the injury to Bam Adebayo. Davis has failed to score at least 20 points only sixteen times this season. After a lackluster Game Three in the Western Conference Finals against Denver, Davis was spectacular in the next two games averaging 30.5 PPG. The Lakers should also score more points in transition in this game. After netting +6.1 points per 100 possession clip in transition in Game One and +1.1 points per 100 possession mark in transition in Game Two, LA had -1.4 points per 100 possession rating in Game Three. They had adequate transition scoring chances that represented 12.1% of their possessions on Sunday, but they only scored at 90.9 points per 100 possession rate. The Lakers entered this series averaging 23.3 points per game via transitions which was tops in the NBA playoffs with 18.5% of their possessions coming from transition. Los Angeles’ loss snapped a four-game winning streak — but they have still won 22 of their last 29 games after winning three of their last four games. They also have won 23 of their last 34 games after winning four of their last five contests. The Lakers are still dominating Miami on the boards. Their 50-43 advantage on the boards in Game Three was the narrowest that margin has so far been in this series. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after outrebounding their last three opponents by at least five boards — and this includes them covering the point spread in four of these last five situations. Miami played their best defensive game in their last nine contests by holding LA to 43% shooting. They received a superhuman effort from Jimmy Butler who scored 40 points with 13 assists and 11 rebounds in his first career triple-double in the playoffs. This was the second-best Game Score registered by Basketball-Reference in the playoffs since 1984 which is how far back they can measure that metric. After logging in 45 minutes to carry his team to victory, it is highly unlikely that Butler can come close to replicating that performance. Butler made 14 of his 20 shots on Sunday — but he made only 45.1% of his shots from the field during the regular season. And Butler has scored more than 30 points in nine of his 44 playoff games since he became an All-Star in 2015 — so it was a relatively rare occurrence. As it is, the Heat have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a double-digit victory as an underdog. Miami has also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games on the road after scoring at least 115 points. The Heat were without the injured Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic on Sunday which made Butler’s effort even more spectacular. Dragic will probably not play in this series but Adebayo has been upgraded to questionable for tonight’s game with his neck injury. He wanted to play on Sunday but was not cleared by the Miami medical staff. Even if he does take the court, it remains questionable how effective he can be (as we learned, unfortunately, last night with both Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley not being effective playing with injuries despite participating in practices at the end of the week).

FINAL TAKE: The Lakers have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss were they were favored by at least 7 points. Look for LA to come out with similar intensity as they did in Game One of this series which they won by 18 points. 25* NBA Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Lakers (707) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (708). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (703) and the Los Angeles Lakers (704) in Game Two of the NBA Finals. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (65-22) won the opening game of this series on Wednesday with their 116-98 victory over the Heat as a 4.5-point favorite. Miami (56-33) has lost two of their last three games — and they suffered two critical injuries in that game to Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic that have an immediate impact on this series moving forward. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Miami hit only 42.7% of their shots on Wednesday which was the lowest shooting mark in their last four games. They also made just 11 of their 36 shots from downtown for a low 31% mark. The team was simply overwhelmed in the 2nd quarter after racing out to an early 13-point lead. Adebayo only played 21 minutes while Dragic managed just 14:50 minutes before leaving the game to their injuries. The Lakers nailed 60% of their 3-pointers in the first half en route to 65 points. The Heat have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 17 of their last 24 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. Moving forward, the injuries to Adebayo and Dragic forces head coach Erik Spoelstra to make some significant changes. He is going to play more small-ball — which means a faster tempo, more 3-pointers but a reliance on players with defensive liabilities. Without Adebayo and Dragic on the court, Miami has seen the average possessions per game rise from a 97.4 average to 101 possessions per game. The Heat have their worst Defensive Rating when Dragic is not on the court. His absence means more minutes for Tyler Herro who can be lights out on offense but is a work in progress on the defensive end of the court. Adebayo claims he is going to try to play tonight. We’ll see. Spoelstra will have to give more minutes to Kelly Olynyk in his absence which is another player with defensive limitations when playing against a player like Anthony Davis. Spoelstra will likely embrace more small-ball lineups and even more 3-point shooting in the hopes that his team can replicate the 38% shooting from behind the arc they enjoyed during the first two rounds of the playoffs. The Heat have now allowed at least 113 points in their last three games — and they have played 9 straight games on the road Over the Total after allowing at least 110 points in three straight games. They also have played 28 of their last 42 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range. Los Angeles coasted to victory despite making only 45.2% of their shots which was the lowest mark in their last four games. The Lakers raced out to a 65-48 halftime lead while nailing 60% of their 3-pointers in the first 24 minutes of that game. That was the sixth time that LA has scored at least 60 points in the first half of their sixteen playoff games. They have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after enjoying a 15-point lead at halftime. They also had a 10-point lead at halftime in their final game with Denver — and the Lakers have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after generating double-digit halftime leads in two straight games. And in their last 20 games after a victory by at least 15 points, they have played 13 of these games Over the Total. The Lakers have an Offensive Rating of 115.7 which is 2nd best of all playoff teams. Davis scored 34 points on Wednesday and should have his way inside with Adebayo out (or less than 100%). Los Angeles outrebounded the Heat by a 54 to 36 margin in Game One — and Miami has played 8 straight road games Over the Total after a game where they were outrebounded by at least 15 boards.

FINAL TAKE: The Heat have to shoot their way to victory tonight — and if they miss, that triggers the Lakers’ transition offense from which they entered this series averaging 23.3 PPG in transition with it representing 18.5% of their offense. Miami has lost all three meetings with LA this season — and they have played 19 of their last 28 games Over the Total when playing with triple revenge. 25* NBA Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Heat (703) and the Los Angeles Lakers (704). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (711) and the Los Angeles Lakers (712) in Game Five of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (63-22) took a 3-1 lead in this series on Thursday with their 114-108 victory over the Nuggets as a 6-point favorite. Denver (55-36) once again finds themselves on the brink of elimination down 3-1 in this series. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The referees responded from the criticism from LeBron James about not getting enough whistles as the Lakers got to the charity stripe 35 times from which they converted on 28 of those attempts. Look for the fewer fouls to be called in tonight’s game. The Lakers have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win by 6 points or less. Denver made 50.6% of their shots in Game Four which was the third straight game where the Lakers allowed them to make at least 47.3% of their shots from the field. Los Angeles has then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing their last three opponents to make at least 47% of their shots. The Lakers have scored at least 105 points in eight straight games — but that is a strong indicator that this game will finish below the number. LA has played 48 of their last 76 games Under the Total after scoring at least 105 points in three straight games — and they have played 38 of their last 60 games Under the Total after scoring at least 105 points in four straight games. And in their last 47 games after scoring at least 105 points in five straight games, they have then played 30 of these games Under the Total. And while these two teams have seen 220 and 222 combined points scored in the last two games, the Lakers have then played 22 of their last 35 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where at least 215 combined points were scored. Denver has seen the Under go 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 7-2-2 in their last 11 games when playing with one day of rest. The Nuggets are certainly familiar with this situation of being on the brink of elimination. They must crave danger. The urgency of avoiding the abyss does motivate better efforts on the defensive end of the court for Denver. In Game Six and Seven of their series with Utah, the Nuggets held the Jazz to just 45.3% and 38.0% shooting which resulted in only 107 and 78 points in the final two games of that series. Then in Game Five, Six, and Seven in their series with the Clippers, Denver clamped down to hold Kawhi Leonard and company to 42%, 41%, and 37.8% shooting which translated into 105, 98, and 89 points. The Nuggets have played 5 of their last 7 playoff games Under the Total when facing elimination.

FINAL TAKE: These team trends are complemented by an empirical situational angle that has been 61% effective over the last five seasons. The Lakers have not covered the point spread in the last two games in this series — and in games involving two teams with a winning percentage in the 60 to 75% range, when one team has not covered the point spread in two straight games, these games have then finished Under the Total in 116 of these last 189 situations where these conditions applied. While Davis is one of the best defenders in the league, if he is not 100% (or does not play), that helps our Under play since he is so important to the Lakers offense — he is averaging 29 PPG in the postseason. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (711) and the Los Angeles Lakers (712). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (716) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (715) in Game Five of the Eastern Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Boston (57-30) hopes to stave off elimination tonight after getting upset in Game Four of this series to the Heat on Wednesday by a 112-109 score as a 3.5-point favorite. Miami now owns a 3-1 lead in this series. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Complacency has been the hobgoblin for this Boston team in this series. The Celtics are too often letting up in their intensity and focus. After falling behind by a 2-0 margin, they got Gordon Hayward back in Game Three who helped them with that game by a comfortable 117-106 score. And while many pundits commented on how Hayward was a series-changer with him being the right piece to counter the Miami zone defense, I worried about Boston’s determination after avoiding a disastrous 0-3 start to the series. And the Celtics came out flat on Wednesday. Jayson Tatum scored zero points while failing to get to the free-throw line even once in the first twenty-four minutes of the game. Boston went into the locker room at halftime trailing by a 50-44 score — this was their first deficit at halftime since the opening round of these playoffs. If head coach Brad Stevens is going to accomplish just one thing tonight, it will be to get his team to come out with more fire. The Celtics are still outscoring Miami by +19 points in the 1st quarter of this series. Boston has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games away from home after an upset loss. Additionally, the Celtics are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread setback. And while Game Four finished above the 212 point Total, Boston has then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games away from after a game that finished Over the Total. The Celtics are outshooting and outrebounding the Heat in this series while also shooting better from behind the arc. The reason why both these teams have each scored exactly 441 points in this series is that Boston is turning the ball over which is giving Miami additional scoring chances. The Celtics are averaging 16.0 turnovers per game while coughing the ball up in 16.4% of their possessions in this series. The Heat are averaging only 11.3 turnovers per game which is helping them take 6 more shots per game than Boston. That’s the series. Only Cleveland had a worse turnover percentage during the regular season. Stevens should be able to impart the importance of Boston paying more attention to protecting the basketball. The Celtics turned the ball over in just 13.6% of their possessions in the regular season. And Boston is scoring at a healthy 114.6 points per possession rate in this series when not turning the ball over. Hayward’s ability to knock down 3s to break the Miami zone defense still exists — the Celtics were +4.9 points per possession better with Hayward on the floor during the regular season. Boston has lost and failed to cover the point spread in four of their last six games. But the Celtics have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games away from home after losing four or five of their last six games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after an upset victory. And while the last two games have finished Over the Total, the Heat have then failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games away from home after playing two straight Overs. Miami received a stellar effort from Tyler Herro who scored 37 points on Wednesday — and while I have appreciated that the former Kentucky Wildcat is emerging as a star, he is unlikely to replicate that performance tonight. The Heat also have an issue with Bam Adebayo not being at 100% with a wrist injury. While it looks like he will play, it is unclear how productive he can be.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games away from home when avenging an upset loss. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (716) minus the points versus the Miami Heat (715). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (709) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (710) in Game Four of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (62-22) lost their first game in their last seven playoff contests with their 114-106 upset loss to the Nuggets on Tuesday as a 5.5-point favorite. Denver (55-35) now trails in this series by a 2-1 margin. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles slacked with their effort on defense on Tuesday as they allowed the Nuggets to shoot 54.8% from the field which was the worst defensive effort in their last thirteen games. After allowing Denver to score 93 points after the first three quarters, the Lakers tightened things up to limit the Nuggets to just 21 points in the final twelve minutes. LA was also out-rebounded by a 45 to 25 margin while pulling down an embarrassingly sparse four offensive boards. Anthony Davis did not bother to notch his first offensive rebound until the 4th quarter. This team has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after being out-rebounded by at least ten boards in their last game. The Lakers’ effort was not as high as it has been in their six-game winning streak. But LeBron James and company should respond with a strong performance tonight as they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after winning three of their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after winning four of their last five games. The offensive prowess of this team has been consistent as they have shot at least 50% from the field in nine of their last eleven playoff games. Nine of their last ten playoff wins this postseason have been by more than 6 points — so when the Lakers win, they are also covering point spread expectations. And then there is James. In his career, James has seen his team take a 2-0 lead in the playoffs twenty-three times. It has been just eight times when James’ team then lost Game Three up 2-0 in the series. Only once in Game Four did James and his teammates then respond with a straight-up victory to seize the commanding 3-1 series lead. Denver has covered the point spread in the last two games in this series — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Nuggets have also failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 61 games away from home after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 52 games away from home after a point spread win. Denver played one of their best games in the postseason Jamal Murray scoring 28 points with 12 rebounds and 12 assists while Nikola Jokic added 22 points along with 10 boards. And Jeramy Grant played perhaps his best playoff game ever with 26 points while outplaying a listless Anthony Davis. The Nuggets’ 54.8% shooting percentage was the mark in their last eleven games — and they have made at least 47.3% of their shots in six straight games. But Denver may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after making at least 47% of their shots in five straight games.

FINAL TAKE: The Lakers have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss. 25* NBA Thursday TNT Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Lakers (709) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (707) and the Denver Nuggets (708) in Game Three of the Western Conference Finals. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (62-21) has now won six games in a row in dramatic fashion with Anthony Davis nailing a buzzer-beating 3-pointers to seal a 105-103 victory over the Nuggets on Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite. Denver (54-35) is now down 2-0 to the Lakers in this series. This game is being played on a neutral court in Orlando.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: An encouraging aspect that the Nuggets can take from Game Two of this series was their improved play on defense in the final 24 minutes of that game. Denver limited the Lakers to just 45 points in the second half while limiting them to scoring at just a 0.95 Points-Per-Possession rate. Los Angeles missed 15 of their 21 shots from behind that arc in the second half. The Nuggets have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss by 6 points or less. Additionally, the Under is 3-0-1 in Denver’s last 4 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a point spread setback. And while that game finished just below the closing total of 209, the Nuggets have played a decisive 55 of their last 93 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Denver has covered the point spread in four of their last five games — and they have played 26 of their last 41 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least three of their last four games. Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win by 6 points or less — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a narrow win by no more than 3 points. The Lakers have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a victory where they did cover the point spread as the favorite. Furthermore, Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after winning at least six games in a row. The Lakers have scored at least 105 points in each of their six victories in a row — but they have played 23 of their last 36 games Under the Total after scoring at least 105 points in three straight games. Additionally, LA has played 38 of their last 58 games Under the Total after scoring at least 105 points in four straight games — and they have played 30 of their last 45 games Under the Total after scoring at least 105 points in five straight games. This Lakers’ team remains relatively rested after taking care of Houston in five games in the Western Conference Semifinals — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when not playing more than three games in the last ten days.

FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have lost all four meetings between these two teams in 2020 — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with triple revenge. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (707) and the Denver Nuggets (708). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (729) and the Los Angeles Clippers (730) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (53-33) pulled off their second-straight upset victory on Sunday as they defeated the Clippers by a 111-98 score as a 9-point underdog to force this Game Seven. Los Angeles (56-20) has blown a lead of at least 15 points in the last two contests in this series. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Apparently, it is the sense of imminent failure that motivates this Nuggets team to play harder on defense. Five of Denver’s seven victories this postseason have come in elimination games. They held the Clippers to just 41% shooting on Sunday in what was the best defensive effort in their last four games — this performance was highlighted by them getting a defensive stop in eleven straight possessions in the second half. The Nuggets also nailed 54.1% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in the last seven contests. Denver has seen the Under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games are a double-digit win. The Under is also 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games are a point spread victory. And in their last 15 playoff games with the series tied, the Nuggets have played 11 of these games Under the Total. Los Angeles played their worst defensive game in their last fourteen contests after allowing Denver can 54.1% of their shots. Head coach Doc Rivers will likely shorten his bench tonight which means less time for Montrezl Harrell and Lou Williams who are offensive spark plugs off the bench but who have liabilities on the defensive end of the court. The Clippers have only covered the point spread once in the last five games in this series — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after only covering the point spread at least three of their last four games. Los Angeles has also played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total away from home after not covering the point spread in their last two games.

FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have played 23 of their last 33 games away from home Under the Total after suffering an upset loss — and they have also played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss when favored by at least 7 points. 25* NBA Tuesday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (729) and the Los Angeles Clippers (730). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (736) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (735). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (53-25) returns to the court tonight after defeating Dallas in six games with their 111-97 win over the Mavericks as a 9-point favorite on August 30th. Denver (50-30) outlasted Utah in their seven-game series that culminated with their 80-78 victory as a 2.5-point favorite on Tuesday. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Look for the Nuggets to suffer an emotional letdown after rallying from a 3-1 deficit to defeat the Jazz. Don’t be surprised if this team looks tired tonight. Denver played their hardest game on defense in the bubble on Tuesday — they held Utah to just 38.0% shooting. But the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 47 games after a straight-up win. Denver has also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after winning at least two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after winning at least three games in a row. Furthermore, while the Nuggets have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games away from home after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Los Angeles will be rested and ready for this game — and they are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games when playing with at least three days of rest including covering the point spread in nine of these last twelve situations. The Clippers have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games when playing no more than their fifth game in the last fourteen days. And while Los Angeles has covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games away from home after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. And in their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Clippers have covered the point spread 5 times.

FINAL TAKE: Head coach Doc Rivers has indicated that Patrick Beverley will likely take the court tonight after missing time with his calf injury. He gives the team a big boost on defense. It will probably take a game for the Nuggets to adjust to the new challenge of facing this Clippers team. 25* NBA 2nd Round Western Conference Playoff Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Clippers (736) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (735). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (731) and the Houston Rockets (732) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (47-31) forced a climactic seventh game in this series on Monday with their 104-100 upset win over the Rockets as a 4.5-point underdog. Houston (47-31) ha lost three of their last four games in this series. This game will be played on a neutral court in Orlando.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockets blew their opportunity to close out this series on Monday despite making 45.2% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last five contests. Houston has played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after an upset loss. The Rockets have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Houston has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. The pressure of the playoffs tends to play a role in making all the 3s this team launches not fall quite as much. Every statistical moment is not the same — pressure plays a role in these games despite the protestations from the analytics community. It was their last Game Seven against Golden State back in the spring of 2018 where the Rockets missed twenty-seven straight 3-point shots. Houston has played 17 of their last 23 playoff games Under the Total when tied in the series including six straight Unders. They also have played 18 of their last 23 playoff games Under the Total with the opportunity to close out the series. Additionally, the Rockets have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 20 of their last 32 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Oklahoma City has seen the Under go a decisive 48-21-1 in their last 70 games as an underdog. Additionally, the Thunder have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 28 of their last 45 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. This team has also played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. Finding consistent scoring options for head coach Billy Donovan has been an issue outside of Chris Paul who scored 15 of his 28 points on Monday in the 4th quarter. Donovan is still starting Lu Dort alongside Steven Adams despite their liabilities on offense. When they are on the floor in this series the Thunder are scoring at just a 66.7 points per 100 possession rate — the Rockets are comfortable playing off both of them to pack the paint. But they are giving Donovan defense as Houston is scoring at just an 89.3 points per 100 possession rate when those two are on the court. I don’t see Donovan moving away from starting this combo tonight.

FINAL TAKE: The Rockets have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total away from home when looking to avenge an upset loss. 25* NBA 1st Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (731) and the Houston Rockets (732). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (504) minus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (503). THE SITUATION: Boston (41-18) had their two-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 111-110 upset loss at home to Houston as a 2-point favorite. Brooklyn (26-33) has lost their last four games after their 116-113 loss at Miami on Saturday as a 7.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Boston made only 39% of their shots on Saturday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last twenty-five games. The Celtics should respond with a strong effort as they have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset loss. Boston has also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread defeat. They stay at home where they are 23-6 this season with an average winning margin of +9.6 PPG. The Celtics should shoot better tonight as they are making 47.3% of their shots on their home court which is resulting in 116.6 PPG. Boston has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. The Celtics may be undermined tonight with a flu bug hitting the locker room — Jayson Tatum and Marcus Smart are listed as questionable after missing practice yesterday. But Boston will get Kemba Walker back after he missed the last five games with a knee injury. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning percentage in the 40-49% range. Boston has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as the favorite. Brooklyn may be without Garrett Temple who is questionable with a shoulder injury — and they will be without Kyrie Irving for the rest of the season with his shoulder injury. The Nets stay on the road where they are 10-20 with an average losing margin of -3.6 PPG. Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games as an underdog. The Nets have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when facing an opponent that is winning at least 60% of their games. And in their last 13 games against fellow Atlantic Division opponents, Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread 9 times.

FINAL TAKE: Boston will also be motivated to avenge a 112-107 upset loss at Brooklyn back on November 29th. The Celtics have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games when playing with revenge against their opponents. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Game of the Year with the Boston Celtics (504) minus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (503). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (559) and the San Antonio Spurs (560). THE SITUATION: Orlando (23-32) has won three straight games with their 136-125 win over Minnesota last night as an 8-point favorite. San Antonio (24-33) has lost their last two games with their 109-103 loss at home to Dallas as a 4-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Over is 7-0-1 in the Magic’s last 8 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is also 7-0-1 in their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Orlando has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring at least 125 points in their last five games. Head coach Steve Clifford has found a five-man combination that is finally jumpstarting what had been a stagnant offense. Markelle Fultz, Terrence Ross, Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon, and Nikola Vucevic entered the week averaging 110.1 points per 100 possessions in the 177 minutes they have played together. In the three games the Magic have played since, Orlando has averaged 127 PPG while making 49.4%, 49.0% and then 54.1% of their shots. But the problem for that grouping is their defense as they had allowed their opponents to score at an 111.8 points per 100 possession clip in those 177 minutes entering last Monday’s game. The Magic have allowed their last three opponents to average 119.3 PPG with a field goal percentage of 47.0%. All three games this week finished Over the Total — and Orlando has played 15 of their last 19 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight Overs. In their last five games, the Magic are scoring 120.6 PPG on 47.4% shooting — and they are surrendering 118.1 PPG on 47.1% shooting. Now they go back on the road where the Over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games — and the Over is also 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games as an underdog. Additionally, while this is Orlando’s sixth game in the last two weeks, they have played 15 of their last 19 road games Over the Total when playing no more than their sixth game in fourteen days. San Antonio held the Mavericks to just a 41.9% shooting percentage on Wednesday in that loss which was the best defensive effort in their last twelve games. The Over is 6-1-1 in the Spurs’ last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, San Antonio has played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a loss by 6 points or less. And while San Antonio has lost and failed to cover the point spread in their last two contests, they have then played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after suffering two straight losses — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight games. The Spurs defensive effort on Wednesday was a surprise because they have still allowed their last five opponents to make 48.8% of their shots which has resulted in 115.4 PPG. They stay at home for this game where they are scoring 113.3 PPG on 46.6% shooting while allowing their guests to score 112.4 PPG. San Antonio has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams who are not winning more than 40% of their games on the road — and they have played 14 of their last 20 home games Over the Total as a favorite. The Spurs have also played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And while San Antonio has launched at least 91 shots in three straight games, they have then played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after taking at least 90 shots in two straight contests.

FINAL TAKE: Orlando averages 89 shots per game this season (while taking at least 89 shots in seven straight contests) — and the Spurs have played 24 of their last 36 games Over the Total against teams that average at least 88 shots per game. The Spurs allow 114.5 PPG this season — and the Magic have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams who allow at least 110 PPG. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (559) and the San Antonio Spurs (560). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (530) minus the points versus the Charlotte Hornets (529). THE SITUATION: Toronto (42-16) looks to bounce-back from their 108-97 upset loss at home to Milwaukee on Tuesday as a 1-point favorite. Charlotte (20-38) snapped a two-game losing streak n Wednesday with their 107-101 upset win over New York as a 2-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS MINUS THE POINTS: Toronto only made 35.2% of their shots on Tuesday in what was the lowest shooting effort in their last twenty-three games against the outstanding Bucks defense. The Raptors has still won seventeen of their last nineteen games and they should respond with a strong effort tonight. Toronto has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Toronto has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss at home by at least 10 points. They did play very well on the defensive end of the court as they limited the Bucks to just 38.1% shooting room the field. The Raptors limited Indiana to just a 32.6% field goal percentage in their previous game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing their last two opponents to shoot better than 39% from the field. Toronto named just 18 of their 52 shots from behind the arc against Milwaukee for a 34.6% mark which is a bit below their 37.6% shooting percentage from 3-point land this season. They should fare better tonight against this Hornets team that has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 road games against teams who are making at least 36% of their 3-pointers. The Raptors stay at home where they are 23-8 this season with an average winning margin of +9.0 PPG. They are making 47% of their shots at home which has translated into 116.5 PPG. Toronto has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home against teams with a losing record on the road. The Raptors have also over the point spread in 4 of the last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40%. Charlotte has won four of their last six games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread 24 of their last 34 games after winning four or five of their last six games. In their victory over the Knicks, they allowed them to make 50.6% of their shots which was after they allowed the Pacers to shoot 57% from the field in their previous game. The Hornets have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing their last two opponents to shoot at least 50% from the field. Charlotte ranks 26th in the NBA in Defensive Rating this season as they allow 113.0 points per 100 possessions. The Hornets will also be without Malik Monk who has suspended for violating the league’s anti-drug program. Monk was scoring 17.0 PPG over their last thirteen games while making 35% of his shots from behind the arc during that span. Charlotte goes back on the road where they are just 11-21 with an average losing margin of -9.7 PPG. They are allowing their opponents to make 47.8% of their shots which has translated into 109.7 PPG. The Hornets have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Additionally, Charlotte has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: Toronto will not be at full strength as well tonight with Marc Gasol out and both Norman Powell and Serge Ibaka questionable with injuries. But they still have Pascal Siakam, Kule Lowery, Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby and the outstanding depth that this organization has compiled on this roster. The issue is whether the Raptors are being asked to lay too many points. I am wary of laying over double-digits in the NBA but I do look closely at team trends to evaluate the personalities of teams regarding how they evaluate situations like this. Toronto has covered the point spread in all 4 of their games this season when they have been laying at least 10 points. Charlotte has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of the 13 circumstances this season where they were double-digit underdogs — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog getting 12.5 or more points. 25* NBA Game of the Month with the Toronto Raptors (530) minus the points versus the Charlotte Hornets (529). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (513) and the Houston Rockets (514). THE SITUATION: Memphis (28-29) has lost three straight games after their 124-97 loss at Los Angeles against the Clippers on Monday as an 11.5-point underdog. Houston (37-20) has won four straight games with their 123-112 win over New York on Monday as a 13.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Grizzlies have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 10 points — and this includes them playing four of these last five situations Under the Total. Memphis has also played 4 straight games Under the Total both after a straight-up loss and after a point spread setback. Furthermore, the Grizzlies have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after allowing at least 120 points in their last game. Memphis has been playing short-handed with Jaren Jackson, Jr., Grayson Allen, and the recently acquired Justise Winslow all injured. They made only 41.6% of their shots on Monday which was the lowest shooting effort in their last five games. Brandon Clarke also suffered a hip injury in that game which will keep him out for a couple of weeks which further hampers the Grizzlies offensive attack. Memphis has had the fourth-worst offense since the trade deadline with the reason seeming to be that when they dealt away Jae Crowder and Solomon Hill, they lost their two most active shooters from behind the arc. With Kyle Anderson sliding into the starting lineup despite not being a long-range shooting threat, opposing defenses are more comfortable to pack the paint to thwart Ja Morant’s driving lanes while also providing more help in double-teaming Jonas Valanciunas’ post-ups. And it is not helping matters that Dillon Brooks is in the midst of a big shooting slump: over his last nine games, he is shooting only 28.5% from the field while making just 17.1% of his shots from behind the arc. Now the Grizzlies play their fourth straight game on the road — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after playing their last three games on the road. Memphis has also played 21 of their last 30 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Grizzlies are scoring 111.7 PPG on the road this year which is not very much when considering tonight’s Total is in the high-230s. Memphis has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total with the number set at 230 or higher. And while the Grizzlies are averaging 47.2% shooting this season while holding their opponents to a 45.5% field goal percentage, they are only making 45.4% of their shots over their last five games — but they are limiting their opponents to a 43.7% field goal percentage. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. The Rockets have also played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a game where at least 230 combined points were scored. With the trade of Clint Capela, this team has completely embraced small-ball with them launching even more 3-pointers than ever. But Houston has also played a bit better on the defensive end of the court as they rank 12th in the league in Defensive Rating in their ten games since the All-Star break as compared to their 15th ranking in that metric overall this season. Over their last five games, the Rockets are holding their opponents to 109.2 PPG which is -5.0 PPG below their season average. Houston has played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total with the number set at 230 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Russell Westbrook is listed as probable for tonight with his thumb injury but Eric Gordon is questionable with a knee injury — and his absence will impact the Rockets’ 3-point shooting. Houston will be looking to avenge a 121-110 upset loss in Memphis back on January 14th — and they have played 23 of their last 35 games when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 110 points. These two teams have played 7 of their last 10 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 27 of their last 39 encounters in Houston Under the Total. 25* NBA Wednesday ESPN2 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Memphis Grizzlies (513) and the Houston Rockets (514). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (577) and the Toronto Raptors (578). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (49-8) has won three straight games as well as eight of their last nine games with their 137-134 win at Washington last night as a 12.5-point favorite. Toronto (42-15) has won their last two games as well as seventeen of their last eighteen contests with their 127-81 victory Indiana on Sunday as a 5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bucks have played 7 straight games Over the Total after a win on the road by 3 points or less. Milwaukee has also played 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. And the Bucks have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a game where they allowed at least 130 points. Milwaukee made 57% of their shots against the Wizards which the third straight game that they made at least 50% of their shots since the All-Star break — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after making at least 50% of their shots in three straight games. The Bucks are shooting 49% from the field over their last five games which has generated 123.2 PPG. They stay on the road where they are making 47.9% of their shots which is resulting in 118.6 PPG. The Over is 19-7-1 in Milwaukee’s last 27 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Raptors make 37.7% of their shots from behind the arc — and the Bucks have played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams who make at least 36% of their shots from 3-point land. Toronto has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total after a win on their home court. The Raptors have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 13 of their last 17 home games Over the Total after a point spread victory. And in their last 7 games after a double-digit win, Toronto has played 5 of these games Over the Total. The Raptors held the Pacers to just 32.6% shooting which was the best defensive effort of their season. They also made 51.1% of their shots in that game after nailing 52.5% of their shots in their previous game against Phoenix — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after shooting at least 50% from the field in two straight contests. They stay at home where they are 23-7 while making 47.5% of their shots which is producing 117.3 PPG. Toronto has won nine straight games at home while averaging 125.1 PPG in those contests on 51.9% shooting from the field and a 41.3% clip from behind the arc. The Raptors have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total with the number set at 230 or higher. Toronto has also played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total as an underdog. And while the Bucks average 91 shots per game in their up-tempo offense, the Raptors have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams who average at least 88 shots per game.

FINAL TAKE: The Raptors will not be at full strength with Norman Powell and Marc Gasol both out with injuries — and that will hurt them more on the defensive end of the court rather than with their scoring. These two teams last played back on November 2nd when the Bucks won on their home court by a 115-105 score. Toronto has played 21 of their last 30 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 110 points. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (577) and the Toronto Raptors (578). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Utah Jazz (572) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (571). THE SITUATION: Utah (36-20) has lost two straight games after their 120-110 upset loss at home to Houston as a 2-point favorite on Saturday. Phoenix (23-34) has won two of their last three games after their 112-104 win at Chicago on Saturday as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAZZ MINUS THE POINTS: Utah has suffered two straight upset losses as their setback on Saturday was preceded by a 113-104 upset loss at home to San Antonio as a 7-point favorite last Friday. The Jazz should respond with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games are an upset loss at home by at least 10 points. Utah has also covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a double-digit loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in a decisive 40 of their last 62 home games after a loss at home by at least 10 points. The Jazz allowed the Rockets to make 48.9% of their shots in that contest on Saturday which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last seven games. Utah stays at home for the fourth straight game where they are holding their guests to just a 44.5% field goal percentage which has translated into only 105.0 PPG — so they should play better on defense tonight. The Jazz are still 20-7 on their home court where they are making 47.8% of their shots which is producing 111.2 PPG. Utah has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games with the Total set in the 220 to 229.5 point range. Over their last five contests, they are shooting a healthy 48.9% of their shots. And in their last 20 games when playing with one day of rest, the Jazz have coved the point spread 14 times. Phoenix is likely due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. That was the thirteenth straight game where Phoenix played a game where at least 216 combined points were scored — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after playing at least three straight games where at least 215 combined points were scored. Now the Suns stay on the road for the third straight games where they are 12-16 while allowing their home hosts to score 114.2 PPG on 47.4% shooting from the field. Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Additionally, the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Phoenix may be just what the doctor ordered for this Utah team that has dominated this series as of late. The Jazz have won the last eight meetings between these two teams along with fifteen of their last sixteen encounters with the Suns. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with Phoenix while also going 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 opportunities to host the Suns in Salt Lake City. The Jazz won the last showdown between these two teams back on October 28th by a 96-95 score in Phoenix — and the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when looking to avenge a narrow loss by 3 points or less. 25* NBA Western Conference Game of the Year with the Utah Jazz (572) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (571). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (564) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (563). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (35-22) saw their four-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 119-98 loss at Milwaukee as a 9.5-point underdog. Atlanta (17-41) has won their last two games after their 111-107 win over Dallas on Saturday as a 2-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 76ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia made only 35% of their shots on Saturday in what was the worst shooting percentage for them all season. They also allowed the Bucks to make 52.7% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six contests. The 76ers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a loss on the road by at least 20 points. Philadelphia will not be at full strength for this game with Ben Simmons out with a back injury and Tobias Harris dealing with a knee — but that opens up space for Joel Embiid to lead the way without any conflicts with Simmons. Embiid scored 39 points while adding 16 rebounds last Thursday in an overtime victory over Brooklyn in the last opportunity he had to lead the team without Simmons being available to play. The Sixers return home where they are 26-2 this season with an average winning margin of +10.0 PPG. Philly makes 48.3% of their shots at home which results in them averaging 111.9 PPG. The 76ers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games with the Total set at 220 or higher. Furthermore, Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as a favorite — and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games against teams who are not making at least 40% of their shots on the road. Atlanta has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a victory on their home court. The Hawks are also 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 games after a point spread victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 road games after a point spread victory. Atlanta has covered the point spread in two straight games but they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. And while they have scored at least 105 points in eight straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after scoring at least 105 points in three straight contests. The Hawks go back not he road where they are just 6-24 while being outscored by -13.3 PPG. Atlanta allows their home hosts to make 48.6% of their shots with them averaging 122.2 PPG. The Hawks have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 road games with the Total set in the 220s. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points.

FINAL TAKE: Clint Capela has yet to make his debut for the Hawks after being traded over from Houston — he is dealing with a heel injury and might not play this season. Atlanta is also without DeAndre Bembry who is out with an abdominal injury. Philadelphia is looking to avenge a 127-117 upset loss in Atlanta back on January 30th — and they have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 48 home games when playing with revenge. 10* NBA Blowout Bookie Buster with the Philadelphia 76ers (564) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (563). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (542) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (541). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (47-8) has won six of their last seven games with their 126-106 win at Detroit on Thursday as a 13-point favorite. Philadelphia (35-31) has won their last four games with their 112-104 win over Brooklyn on Thursday as an 8-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee made 50.8% of their shots in racing out to a 29-point lead going into halftime against the hapless Pistons — but they still allowed Detroit to make 48.2% of their shots which was the second highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last seventeen games. The Bucks allowed Indiana to shoot 52.3% from the field in the last game before the All-Star break in a game where Giannis Antetokounmpo did not play with the birth of his child. Expect a better defensive effort from this team tonight. As it is, Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after both a straight-up win and after a point spread victory — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit victory. The Bucks have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. Now this team returns home for the first time since February 10th — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. Milwaukee is 25-3 on their home court where they are outscoring their guests by +13.1 PPG while limiting them to just 41.4% shooting from the field. The Bucks also make 48.5% of their shots on their home court which translate into 121.5 PPG. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40% on the road. The Bucks have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Philadelphia played their best defensive game of the season on Thursday as they held the Nets to just 35.3% shooting. Joel Embiid led the way with 39 points along with 16 rebounds and later proclaimed to be the “best player in the world” after the game. But the 76ers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after winning at least four games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. This is a team where the sum of the parts are not as powerful as the individual pieces suggest. Chemistry and team cohesion are significant concerns with Embiid and Ben Simmons battle for the claim of being the leader of this team. Is it a coincidence that Embiid has a big game on Thursday with Simmons out with a back issue? Is it then a coincidence that Embiid boasts he is the “best player in the game?” Are you even the best player on your own team, big guy? The frustrating thing about Embiid is that he will then try to prove himself by launching 3 after 3 — and that is not close to the most effective way for his skills on offense to be utilized. The Sixers have, at times, played their best ball with Embiid out and Simmons leading the way along with Al Horford manning the post. Unfortunately, Horford has been a disappointment when playing on the court at the same time with Embiid with that lineup having one too many big men on the court. Now after playing their last four games at home, Philadelphia goes back on the road where these chemistry issues get exposed while the bench players do not perform at such a high level — and Simmons is listed as probable for this game which reignites the on-floor conflict with Embiid. The 76ers are just 9-19 on the road with an average losing margin of -5.0 PPG. Philly is just 6-19-2 ATS in their last 27 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games with the Total set at 220 or higher. Furthermore, the 76ers are just 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court. Philadelphia thrives on the lesser teams in the league — but they are 4-12-1 ATS in the last 17 games against teams with a winning record and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Sixers will be looking to avenge a 112-101 loss at Milwaukee back on February 6th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. Philadelphia has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips to Milwaukee to face the Bucks. 25* NBA Saturday Night ABC-TV Game of the Year with the Milwaukee Bucks (542) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (541). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (529) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (530). THE SITUATION: Memphis (28-27) saw their two-game winning streak end last night with their 129-125 loss at Sacramento as a 1-point underdog. Los Angeles (41-12) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 120-116 victory on overtime in Denver as a 3-point favorite nine days ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES PLUS THE POINTS: Memphis was sluggish on defense last night in their first game back after the All-Star break. The Grizzlies allowed the Kings to make 50.6% of their shots which was the second-highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six games. Yet they did rally from a 15-point deficit in the 4th quarter to almost steal that game. Despite that effort, Memphis has been playing better defense as of late as they have held their last five opponents to just 42.0% shooting which has resulted in 111.6 PPG as opposed to their 114.7 PPG/45.4% defensive marks for the season. The Grizzlies should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread setback. Furthermore, Memphis has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. And in their last 5 games when playing without a day of rest, the Grizzlies have covered the point spread in all 5 games. Memphis stays on the road where they are making a healthy 47.0% of their shots and where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games with the Total set at 230 or higher. The Grizzlies also tend to raise their level of play against good teams as they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Los Angeles may suffer from the rust that Memphis did last night after the long All-Star break. Lack of focus has been an issue for this team in the dog days of February — the Nuggets were the third team in their last four contests to make at least 50% of their shots. The Lakers have allowed their last five opponents to make 47.8% of their shots which has resulted in 111.8 PPG. Los Angeles has been winning high-scoring games as of late — they have scored at least 111 points in seven straight contests. But the Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 44 home games after scoring at least 105 points in five straight games. Los Angeles has also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 29 home games with the Total set at 230 or higher. The biggest Achilles’ heel for this team is the lack of a reliable second scorer after LeBron James. Even with Anthony Davis leading the way with James off the court, the Lakers are scoring only 101.8 points per 100 possessions which would rank more than -2.0 points per 100 possessions below the lowest team mark in the league. Overall, LA averages 113.4 points per 100 possessions with James playing a key role in that high level of efficiency. This makes the Lakers unreliable when asking them to cover double-digit point spreads. And while LA has covered the point spread as the favorite in their final two games before the All-Star break, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 57 of their last 95 home games after covering their last two games as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Memphis is a serious contender to make the playoffs with the emergence of rookie superstar Ja Morant. The Grizzlies have a very nice foundation with him joining Jaren Jackson and Brandon Clarke for one of the best young trios of talent in the league — and head coach Taylor Jenkins has been outstanding in getting the most out of his talent. The Grizzlies fare well in expected higher-scoring games like this with that offensive talent. The Lakers average 114.7 PPG on 48.8% shooting — but Memphis has covered the point span in 17 of their last 25 games against teams who score at least 110 PPG and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games against teams who make at least 46% of their shots. And while LA allows their opponents to score 107.3 PPG, the Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 41 games against teams who allow at least 106 PPG. 25* NBA Western Conference Underdog of the Year with the Memphis Grizzlies (529) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (530). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (501) minus the points versus the Detroit Pistons (502). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (46-8) returns to action after the All-Star break looking to bounce-back from a 118-111 loss at Indiana last Wednesday as a 1.5-point underdog. Detroit (19-38) stumbled into the All-Star break having lost four straight games with their 116-112 loss at Orlando as a 6.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee was without Giannis Antetokounmpo in that loss to the Pacers with him away from the team with the birth of his son. The Bucks made only 40.7% of their shots in that game which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last fifteen games. They also allowed Indiana to make 52.3% of their shots in that game which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage all season. Look for this team to make a statement tonight as they return rested and ready to make their push to reach the NBA Finals. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 26 of their last 35 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They are 21-5 on the road where they are outscoring their home hosts by +11.0 PPG. They are making 47.5% of their shots on the road which has resulted in 117.6 PPG. The Bucks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as a favorite. Detroit is a mess who has fully embraced a complete rebuild after trading Andre Drummond at the trade deadline before dropping Reggie Jackson during the All-Star break who was snatched up by the Clippers. The Pistons are also without Blake Griffin for the rest of the season with his knee injury. And while the focus for this organization is to get younger, they are without one of the foundational pieces in Luke Kennard who has been out for almost two months with his knee injury. Head coach Dwane Casey is left with a roster that looks closer to a G-League group than an NBA team. This collection of players was making only 43.8% of their shots over their last five games — even with Jackson in the mix — which was resulting in just 99.4 PPG. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. The Pistons have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when playing with at least three days of rest. They are just 11-19 at home this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of the last 18 games in their Little Caesar’s Arena. Furthermore, Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.

FINAL TAKE: The Pistons are looking to avenge a 127-103 loss at home to the Bucks back on December 4th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games when attempting to avenge a same-season loss. Detroit was an 8.5-point underdog in that meeting and now they are getting 13 or so points with their depleted roster. Milwaukee had won their previous six games away from home by double-digits before their loss at Indiana. 25* NBA Central Division Game of the Year with the Milwaukee Bucks (501) minus the points versus the Detroit Pistons (502). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (523) and the Boston Celtics (524). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (37-17) has lost two of their last three games with their 110-103 upset loss at Philadelphia as a 2-point favorite on Tuesday. Boston (37-16) saw their seven-game winning streak snapped on Tuesday with their 116-105 loss at Houston as a 2-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Clippers will be playing their third game in the last five days tonight before the All-Star break begins tomorrow — they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing their third game in five days. Los Angeles stays on the road where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total. The Clippers have also played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. It is not often when Doc Rivers’ team is getting the points — and that usually means that ramp things up on the defensive end of the court. Los Angeles has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. They also have played 24 of their last 32 road games as an underdog which includes them playing seven straight games on the road as a dog getting up to 6 points. Furthermore, the Clippers have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against opponents with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. And while the Celtics are shooting 46.3% from the field this season, Los Angeles has played 22 of their last 33 road games Under the Total against teams with a 46% or better field goal percentage. Boston has not covered the point spread in their last two games — and they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in their last two games. The Celtics return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. Boston has also played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Celtics have played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% overall.

FINAL TAKE: The Clippers won the last meeting between these two teams at home in the Staples Center with their 107-104 victory as a 7.5-point favorite on November 20th. Boston has played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge on their minds. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Thursday TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (523) and the Boston Celtics (524). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (522) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (521). THE SITUATION: Denver (38-16) has won four straight games with their 127-120 win over San Antonio on Monday as a 6.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (40-12) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 125-100 win over Phoenix as a 13.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS PLUS THE POINTS: Denver allowed the Spurs to make 48.2% of their shots in the win which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last four games. The Nuggets have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last  5 games after a point spread loss. Denver has also covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games at home after a point spread victory. And while they have covered the point spread in six of their last seven games, they should build off that momentum as they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. The Nuggets are dealing with injuries right now with Mason Plumlee, Will Barton, and Michael Porter, Jr. have all bee out. But Denver still has Nikola Jokic, Paul Millsap, and Jamal Murray who have helped this team make 50.9% of their shots over their last five games which has resulted in 118.4 PPG. Now the Nuggets stay at home where they are 21-6 with an average winning margin of +6.0 PPG. Denver has covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home with the Total set at 220 or higher. Additionally, the Nuggets have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 5 games as an underdog, Denver has covered the point spread in 4 of these games. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win at home by at least 20 points. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. And while the Lakers are shooting 52.6% from the field over their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after shooting at least 47% from the field over their last five contests. Los Angeles goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Lakers have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games when they are favored. Furthermore, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.

FINAL TAKE: The Lakers will be looking to avenge a 128-104 loss at home to the Nuggets as a 2.5-point favorite back on December 22nd. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when playing with revenge from a loss by at least 20 points. The Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 meetings with the Nuggets — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 trips to Denver to play this team. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Game of the Year with the Denver Nuggets (522) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (521).

At 9:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (585) and the Houston Rockets (586). THE SITUATION: Boston (37-15) has won seven straight games after their 112-111 win at Oklahoma City as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday. Houston (33-20) has lost their last two games with their 114-113 upset loss against Utah on Sunday as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Celtics have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. Boston has not covered the point spread in their last two games with their victory over the Thunder preceded by a 112-107 win at home against Atlanta. The Celtics have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning their last two games by 6 points or less. Boston stays on the road where they have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting no more than 6 points. Additionally, the Celtics have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 220 or higher. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a home favorite. The Rockets have also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss by 3 points or less. Houston has fully embraced small-ball which was cemented with the trade of their center Clint Capela last week. The Rockets are getting killed on the boards as they have been out-rebounded by 10 and 15 boards in their last two games — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after being out-rebounded by at least 10 boards in two straight games. Houston has allowed their last four opponents shoot at least 47% from the field while scoring at least 110 points in all four games but they have then played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after allowing at least their last three opponents to make at least 47% of their shots — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 110 points in four straight games. Small-ball has not resulted in an uptick of scoring (except for their upset win over the Lakers, unfortunately for us, when Eric Gordon and the rest of the team could not miss from 3-point land): they are making only 42.8% of their shots over their last five games for a 113.4 PPG scoring average which is well behind their 119.3 PPG/45.1% field goal percentage for the season. Houston has played 24 of their last 35 games Under the Total with the Total set at 230 or higher. And in their last 51 expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range, the Rockets have played 39 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Boston’s biggest weakness is the lack of interior defenders — but that will not be an issue against this Rockets team. The Celtics do a good job of defending the arc as they rank 7th in the league by holding their opponents to make just 34.5% of their shots behind the arc. These two teams have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 14 meetings in Houston Under the Total. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (585) and the Houston Rockets (586). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Indiana Pacers (560) minus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (559). THE SITUATION: Indiana (31-22) has lost five straight games with their 124-117 loss at home to New Orleans on Saturday as a 5.5-point favorite. Brooklyn (23-28) saw their two-game winning streak end on Saturday with their 119-118 loss at Toronto as a 6-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACERS MINUS THE POINTS: Indiana has struggled as of late with slow starts and poor play in the 4th quarter. But hosting this Nets team that they have defeated in eleven of their last twelve encounters. The Pacers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss —and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 120 points in their last game. And while this is Indiana’s third straight game on their home court, they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after losing their last two games at home. The Pacers have lost five of their last six contests — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing five or six of their last seven games. Indiana has only covered the point spread once in their last five games as well — but they have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Indiana is completely healthy at this point in the season with Victor Oladipo back in the mix. He did not play on Saturday in the loss to the Pelicans with head coach Nate McMillan managing his work load but he should be back on the floor tonight. Indiana stays at home where they are 18-9 this season — and they have covered the point spread in 37 of their last 58 home games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. They are also 19-6-1 ATS in their last 27 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. And in their last 67 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points, the Pacers have covered the point spread in 42 of these contests. Brooklyn rallied from an 18-point deficit on Saturday to narrowly lose to the Raptors. But the Nets have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread 10 of their last 16 games after scoring at least 115 points in their last contest. Brooklyn is once again playing without Kyrie Irving who is dealing with a knee injury — he will be missing his fourth straight game tonight. The Nets stay on the road where they are just 8-16 this season. The Nets have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Nets have lost ten of their thirteen games this season against the top-six teams in the Eastern Conference. Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against the Pacers — and the have failed to cover the point spread in five of their last seven trips to Indianapolis to play the Pacers. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Eastern Conference Game of the Year with the Indiana Pacers (560) minus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (559). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (549) and the Philadelphia 76ers (550). THE SITUATION: Chicago (19-34) has lost four games in a row with their 125-119 loss at home to New Orleans on Thursday as a 6-point underdog. Philadelphia (32-21) snapped their four-game losing streak with their 119-107 win over Memphis as a 6.5-point favorite on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bulls are struggling on the defensive end of the court — they allowed the Pelicans to make 56.3% of their shots. Chicago allowed the Raptors to shoot 56% from the field in their previous game as well — they have allowed their last four opponents to shoot at least 51.4% and five of their last six opponents have shot at least 50% from the field. The Bulls have then played 14 of their last 16 games Over the Total after allowing their last two opponents to shoot at least 50% from the field — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 55%. Furthermore, Chicago has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after allowing their last three opponents to make at least 50% of their shots. The Bulls have allowed their last five opponents to shoot 54.5% from the field which has generated 122/.2 PPG. But Chicago has also made 47.0% of their shots over that span which has resulted in them averaging 111.0 PPG in those last five games. The Bulls have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 5 straight games Over the Total after a point spread setback. Chicago has also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after losing at least three straight games in a row. They go back on the road where they have played 4 straight Overs — and they have played 10 of their last 14 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. The Bulls have also played 21 of their last 28 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Philadelphia played their best defensive game in their last nine contests on Friday by holding then Grizzlies to just 40.9% shooting from the field. But the 76ers have still allowed their last five opponents to make 47.8% of their shots which has resulted in 119.8 PPG that they have allowed during that span. Philly has allowed their last five opponents to score at least 107 points — and they have then played 18 of their last 26 home games Over the Total after allowing their last three opponents to score at least 105 points. The Sixers stay at home where they are 23-2 while making 48.5% of their shots which has resulted in 111.7 PPG. Philadelphia has played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The 76ers have also played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as a double-digit favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Chicago will be looking to avenge a 100-89 loss at Philadelphia back on January 17th — and they have played 27 of their last 41 games Over the Total when looking to avenge a same-season loss. These two teams have played 13 of their last 19 meetings Over the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing in Philadelphia. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Eastern Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bulls (549) and the Philadelphia 76ers (550). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (536) minus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (535). THE SITUATION: Toronto (38-14) has won thirteen games in a row with their 115-106 win at Indiana as a 2-point favorite last night. Brooklyn (23-27) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 129-88 victory over Golden State as a 6-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS MINUS THE POINTS: Toronto should continue to build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning at least six games in a row. The Raptors have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games when playing without a day of rest. Toronto made 47.7% of their shots last night which was the lowest field goal percentage they have produced in their last six games. They are still making 50.8% of their shots over their last five contests. They return home where they are 19-7 this season with an average winning margin of +8.4 PPG. They limit their guests to just 42.9% shooting from the field when playing at home. The Raptors have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 home games against fellow Atlantic Division rivals. Toronto has also covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Brooklyn played their best defensive game in their last twelve contests by limiting the Warriors to just 36.5% shooting. But the Nets are likely due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by at least 30 points. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning at least two games in a row. Brooklyn has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. Now they go back on the road where they are just 8-15 this season with an average losing margin of -4.2 PPG while shooting just 43.4% from the field. The Nets have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight road games as a dog. Furthermore, Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against fellow Atlantic Division opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Injuries have impacted both these teams recently. The Nets are without Kyrie Irving against who is out with a knee injury. Toronto has been without Marc Gasol for the last five games along with Norman Powell in the last three contests with injuries and they will also be without Kyle Lowry tonight who suffered a shoulder injury last night. But the strength of this Raptors team has been their great depth — and they still have very good players led by Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, and Serge Ibaka. Toronto defeated Brooklyn by a 121-102 score in the Barclays Center back on January 4th — and the Nets have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when attempting to avenge a loss on their home court. Brooklyn has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 meetings with the Raptors. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Atlantic Division Game of the Year with the Toronto Raptors (536) minus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (535). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Utah Jazz (526) minus the points versus the Portland Trail Blazers (525). THE SITUATION: Utah (32-18) has lost five games in a row with their 98-95 upset loss at home to Denver on Wednesday as a 9.5-point favorite. Portland (24-28) has won five of their last six games with their 125-117 win over San Antonio as a 3-point favorite last night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAZZ MINUS THE POINTS: Utah has been very frustrating as of late as they have suffered a remarkable five straight upset losses. We have been on the wrong side of at least two of those games including when they blew a 15-point lead in the 3rd quarter against the Nuggets on Wednesday. I do get reluctant to keep chasing a situation — but is one of those moments where I would have more regret not investing in this situation than I would losing once again on the Jazz. Most importantly to ensure I am not simply chasing good money after bad, this presents a strong “play-against” situation against the Trail Blazers. Portland made 53.3% of their shots last night which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. They also held the Spurs to just 44.6% shooting from the field in what was the best defensive effort in their lsat seven contests. The Trail Blazers have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a victory on their home court — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a game where at least 235 combined points were scored. Damian Lillard has been playing out of his mind with a stretch where he scored 47 or more points in five of six games — but he has come back to earth a bit over his last two contests where he has “only” scored 21 and 26 points. Playing the second game in back-to-back days will not help Lillard replicate his recent Superman powers — and Portland is just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games when playing without a day of rest. The Blazers have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. Now this team goes back on the road where they are jus 10-17 this season while being outscored by -4.9 PPG while making just 44.9% of their shots. Portland has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Trail Blazes have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as a dog getting 6.5 to 12 points. Utah is questioning their mental toughness right now after suffering five straight upset losses — but head coach Quin Snyder’s team has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after an upset loss on their home court. The Jazz have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a narrow loss by 3 points or less. This team has also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least three straight games. They made only 41.9% of their shots on Wednesday which was the lowest shooting effort for them in their last twenty-six games. They stay at home where they should shoot better tonight given their 48.0% field goal percentage on their home court this season which is translating into 111.1 PPG. Utah is 18-5 at home with an average winning margin of +7.3 PPG. The Jazz are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games with the Total set at 220 or higher. The knock on this Utah team is that the 19-2 winning stretch they enjoyed before this recent losing streak was due largely to them playing weaker opponents. Perhaps … but we can take heart into the fact that the Jazz have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 ames overall against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Utah will be motivated to avenge a 124-107 loss at Portland last Saturday as an 8-point favorite. The Jazz have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. The Trail Blazers have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against Utah in Salt Lake City. Let’s trust the team trends in what looks to be a great situation (albeit one that has burned us with the Jazz twice in the last seven days). 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Friday ESPN Game of the Year with the Utah Jazz (526) minus the points versus the Portland Trail Blazers (525). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Milwaukee Bucks (506) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (505). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (43-7) has won two straight games — as well as eleven of their last twelve contests — with their 120-108 win at New Orleans as a 5-point favorite on Tuesday. Philadelphia (31-20) has lost three in a row with their 137-106 blowout loss at Miami on Monday as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Milwaukee should continue to build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a win on the road by double-digit. The Bucks have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after winning two of their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after winning three of their last four games. Milwaukee has been a juggernaut as of late on offense where they have nailed 49.5% of their shots over their last five games which has generated 126.2 PPG. Defense has been an issue for the 76ers during their recent slide — they have allowed their last five opponents to make 48.2% of their shots. Now the bucks return home where they are 23-3 this season with an average winning margin of +13.3 PPG while making 48.7% of their shots which is resulting in 121.8 PPG. The Bucks are also holding their guests to just 41.5% shooting from the field. Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games at home against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. The Bucks up-tempo offense is helping them average 91 shots per game — and Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games against opponents that average at least 88 shots per game. And while the Sixers make 46.5% of their shots, Milwaukee has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 29 home games against teams who make at least 46% of their shots. Philadelphia is reeling right now — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss. They also are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. They allowed the Heat to make 56.5% of their shots on Monday — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. Chemistry is a significant problem for this team. Al Horford and Joel Embiid have not been a good fit together since they play similar roles on the court. Embiid is also clashing with Ben Simmons both on and off the court with both players wanting to be the leader of the team — and Simmons is closer to a power forward, in practice, than a point guard so the role allocation on this team continues to be less than ideally optimal. Philadelphia did make some intriguing moves yesterday by adding Glenn Robinson III and Alec Burks from Golden State — but it is questionable if this shooting depth will be able to take the court tonight (and it will likely take some time to effectively transition into the rotation). Philly will also still be without starter Josh Richardson who has been out a couple of weeks with a hamstring injury. The 76ers were playing perhaps their most consistent basketball of the season last month when Embiid was injured. Philly has also been very good at home where they are 22-2 this season — but they have been an ugly 9-18 on the road this year while allowing their opponents to make 46.9% of their shots which has resulted in 110.4 PPG. The 76ers are 6-18-2 ATS in their last 26 games on the road — and they are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Philadelphia has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.

FINAL TAKE: Milwaukee will be looking to avenge a 121-109 loss at Philadelphia on Christmas Day by a 121-109 score despite being a 2.5-point favorite. Giannis Antetokounmpo missed all seven of his 3-point attempts in that game while making just 8 of his 27 shots for just 18 points. The Greek Freak enters this rematch scoring at least 30 points with 16 rebounds and 6 assists in four straight games. The Bucks have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and the 76ers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games as an underdog. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Thursday TNT Game of the Year with the Milwaukee Bucks (506) minus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (505). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the San Antonio Spurs (569) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (570). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (22-27) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last night with their 108-105 loss at Los Angeles against the Clippers as a 9-point underdog. Los Angeles (37-11) ended their two-game losing streak on Saturday with their 129-113 win in Sacramento as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPURS PLUS THE POINTS: San Antonio made only 42% of their shots last night which was the lowest field goal percentage for them in their last four games — they had made 56.1% and 51.7% of their shots in their previous two games. The Spurs also allowed the Clippers to make 46% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five contests. San Antonio is 6th in the NBA in Defensive Rating over their last five games where they are holding their opponents to just 43.8% shooting from the field. They should play better tonight as they are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. The Spurs have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss on the road where they covered the point spread as an underdog. San Antonio is healthy right now so their good depth should help them tonight when playing the second straight games in the Staples Center. The Spurs have covered then point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing without a day of rest. San Antonio has covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Spurs have covered the point spread in 8 of these contests. Los Angeles responded to their flat performance on Friday at home against the Trail Blazers in their first game since the tragic death of Kobe Bryant by playing one of their better games of the season the next night in Sacramento. The Lakers shot 51.2% from the field which was the best shooting effort in their last eight contests. They also held the Kings to just a 42.9% field goal percentage which is the lowest mark in LA’s last four games. But the Lakers have struggled on the defensive end of the court as they have allowed their last five opponents to make 46.1% of their shots which has resulted in them scoring 110.6 PPG. Los Angeles is 10th in the league in Defensive Rating over those last five games as compared to their overall ranking this season in that metric at 4th best in the NBA. The biggest weakness for this team right now is that they lack a reliable second scorer who can create his own shot in the half-court offense after LeBron James (even Anthony Davis struggles to create his own shooting opportunities). This helps explain why the Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as the favorite. Los Angeles has also failed to cover the point spread in 45 of their last 71 home games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning percentage in the 40-49% range. Furthermore, the Spurs are an up-tempo team that averages 90 shot attempts per game while averaging 25 assists per game. The Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 28 games in the second half of the season against opponents who average at least 88 shot attempts per game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 43 games in the second half of the season against opponents who average at least 23 assists per game.

FINAL TAKE: San Antonio will be looking to avenge a 114-104 loss at home to the Lakers back on November 25th. The Spurs have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 opportunities to avenge a same-season loss — and they have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 38 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 110 points. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Tuesday TNT Game of the Year with the San Antonio Spurs (569) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (570). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (558) minus the points versus the Detroit Pistons (557). THE SITUATION: Memphis (24-25) saw their four-game winning streak snapped on Friday with their 139-111 loss at New Orleans as a 7.5-point underdog. Detroit (18-33) ended their five-game losing streak yesterday with their 128-123 upset win against Denver as a 2-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES MINUS THE POINTS: Memphis allowed the Pelicans to nail 53.7% of their shots on Friday which was the worst defensives effort in their last eighteen games. The Grizzlies also made just 46.9% of their shots which was the worst shooting performance in their last five games. Memphis should respond with a big effort as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit loss. The Grizzlies have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread setback. Memphis has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. Jalen Jackson was suspended for the game on Friday but he will be back on the court night. Now after playing their last two games on the road, the Grizzlies return home where they had covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when favored. Additionally, Memphis has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after playing their last two games on the road. And in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record, the Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 7 of these contests. Detroit is just 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Pistons have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. And Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing without a day of rest. The Pistons are not playing very good defense as of late — the Nuggets made 50% of their shots which was the fourth straight opponent to enjoy at least a 50% field goal percentage against Detroit. The Pistons are 25th in the NBA over their last five games in Defensive Rating while allowing their opponents to make 49.3% of their shots which is resulting in 117.8 PPG by their opponents over that span. They are also plaguing undermanned with a host of injuries. Blake Griffin is, once again, on the shelf with a knee injury and Derrick Rose is also out for tonight with a groin injury. Reggie Jackson and Markieff Morris are both questionable tonight as well with back and hip injuries respectively. Detroit goes back on the road where they are just 8-16 this season. The Pistons are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games on the road — and they are also 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Pistons will be motivated to avenge a 125-112 loss at home to the Grizzlies on January 24th as a 2-point favorite — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 42 games when playing with revenge from a loss by double-digits. Detroit has also failed to cover the point spread 4 of their last 5 meetings with Memphis. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Non-Conference Game of the Year with the Memphis Grizzlies (558) minus the points versus the Detroit Pistons (557). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah Jazz (531) minus the points versus the Portland Trail Blazers (532). THE SITUATION: Utah (32-16) has lost three straight games after their 106-100 upset loss at Denver as a 2.5-point favorite on Thursday. Portland (22-27) has won three straight games after their 127-119 upset victory in Los Angeles over the Lakers last night as a 13-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAZZ MINUS THE POINTS: Utah needs to get back to their winning ways with this three-game losing streak — they had won nineteen of twenty-one games before this recent slide. Quin Snyder’s team has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset loss to a divisional rival — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, while the Jazz have failed to cover the point spread in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after only covering the point spread once in their last four games. Despite this recent slide, Utah is still making a healthy 47.8% of its shots which has translated into 115.6 PPG. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 road games with the Total set at 220 or higher — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record on their home court. The Jazz have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games against teams with a losing record. I was wrong about Portland last night as they were the team that responded to the emotion of it being the first game in the Staples Center after the tragic death of Kobe Bryant. In a game that had, at times, the defensive intensity of an NBA All-Star Game, Damian Lillard went off with 48 points along with 10 assists and 9 rebounds to best embody the “Mamba Mentality” while the Lakers seemed to still be suffering from their grief. It will be difficult for the Trail Blazers to maintain that energy — especially without a day of rest. As it is, Portland is 4-9-2 ATS in their last 15 games after a point spread victory — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing without rest. The Blazers made 50.5% of their shots last night in what was the best shooting effort in their last four games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. Portland returns home where they are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games — and they are 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Blazers are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games as a dog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: Utah is scoring 111.2 PPG this season — and Portland has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games against teams who are scoring at least 110 PPG. The Trail Blazers are allowing 114.9 PPG — and the Jazz have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 road games in the second half of the season against teams who are allowing at least 110 PPG. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Northwest Division Game of the Year with the Utah Jazz (531) minus the points versus the Portland Trail Blazers (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (525) and the Boston Celtics (526). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (31-18) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Thursday with their 127-117 upset loss at Atlanta as a 6-point favorite. Boston (32-15) has won two straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 119-104 win over Golden State as a 13.5-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 76ers allowed the Hawks to make 48.3% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst opponent’s field goal percentage in their last nine games. Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. This is the Sixers just fourth game in the last ten days — and they have played 25 of their last 34 games when playing no more than their fourth game in the last ten days. Philly stays on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, the 76ers have played 7 straight games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Boston nailed 47.7% of their shots on Thursday in what was their best shooting performance in their last four games. The Celtics have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a victory by at least 10 points. Boston has also played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Celtics have scored at least 108 points in eight straight games — but they have then played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after scoring at least 105 points in three straight games. Boston has also played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.

FINAL TAKE: The Celtics will have revenge on their minds as they have lost their last four encounters with the 76ers with their last meeting being on January 9th where Philly defeated them by a 109-90 score. Boston has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total when playing with revenge — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge at least three straight losses to their opponent. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break ABC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia 76ers (525) and the Boston Celtics (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (514) minus the points versus the Portland Trail Blazers (513). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (36-10) takes the court again for the first time since last Saturday where they were upset in Philadelphia to the 76ers by a 108-91 score as a 5-point favorite. Portland (21-27) has won three of their last four games with their 125-112 upset win at Houston as a 5-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: It will be a very emotional night in the Staples Center with this being the first game the Lakers have played since the tragic death of Kobe Bryant. I expect a very focused and determined from Los Angeles as a small tribute to their fallen star. The Lakers are 16-5 on their home court with an average winning margin of +10.1 PPG. Los Angeles makes 48.3% of their shots on their home court while limiting their opponents to just 42.8% shooting from the field. The Lakers are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games with the Total set at 220 or higher. Los Angeles is laying plenty of points tonight — and while I tend to be remiss to lay double-digits, I think the urgency to make a statement tonight by this team for their fans will be very strong. I also feel comfortable laying the 13 or so points because the Lakers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when laying at least 12.5 points. This is also a great opportunity to fade the Trail Blazers. Portland has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after a game where at least 235 points were scored. The Blazers made 51.7% of their shots on Wednesday which was the third straight game where they made at least 50.5% of their shots. But Portland has then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after making at least 47% of their shots in three straight games. The Trail Blazers now go back on the road where they are just 9-16 this season while making just 44.9% of their shots. Portland has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Blazers have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games where the Total is set at 230 or higher. Additionally, Portland has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games as an underdog — and they are 5-12-2 ATS in their last 19 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.

FINAL TAKE: Portland will not have the services of Carmelo Anthony who is taking a personal day for this contest. Anthony Davis is listed as questionable for the Lakers with his gluteus injury — but even if he does not play, look for LeBron James to take his team on his shoulders tonight with a big performance.The Trail Blazers will be looking to avenge a 128-120 loss at home to the Lakers back on December 28th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home. 25* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Lakers (514) minus the points versus the Portland Trail Blazers (513). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Atlanta Hawks (573) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (574). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (12-36) has lost two of their last three games with their 130-114 loss at Toronto on Tuesday as a 13-point underdog. Philadelphia (31-17) has won two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 115-104 victory at home over Golden State on Tuesday as a 13.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: The 76ers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit victory. Philadelphia got Joel Embiid back for that game against the Warriors where he scored 24 points while pulling down 10 rebounds and displaying little rust after being on the shelf for nine games. The Sixers won six of those games without Embiid with his absence offering a more stable role for Al Horford who they signed in the offseason. Head coach Brett Brown has not figured out how to effectively work both Embiid and Horford on the court at the same time with both big men playing similar roles. However, that might not be an issue tonight with Horford listed as questionable with a knee issue. The other dynamic that changed in Embiid’s absence is that it opened up space for Ben Simmons to play more aggressively. Simmons averaged 21.6 PPG in those nine games without Embiid while bailing a remarkable 65.3% of his shots as compared to 14.9 PPG scoring average in the 36 games before Embiid’s injury on 56.3% shooting. Philly needs Simmons to continue to be aggressive but the perceived need to get Embiid his touches may work against this notion. Now this team leaves the Wells Fargo Center where they are 22-2 this season — yet they are just 9-15 on the road with an average losing margin of -3.2 PPG. The 76ers are just 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games on the road — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on their home court. And while the Hawks are being outscored by an ugly -9.3 PPG this season, Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against opponents who are being outscored by at least -9.0 PPG. Atlanta has coped the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. The Hawks have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit loss. Atlanta returns home where they are being outscored by -4.1 PPG. But the Hawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as the underdog. Atlanta will likely be without big men Alex Len and Bruno Fernandes who are dealing with injuries — but their absences on Tuesday offered the opportunity for big man John Collins to step up with 28 points and 12 rebounds. And the Hawks will have rising star Trae Young who has registered four straight double-doubles while scoring 42 and 45 points in two of those games. Young scored 45 points in his last game at home in a 152-133 win against Washington. Atlanta has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. The Hawks have also covered the point spread in their last four opportunities to host the Sixers.

FINAL TAKE: The 76ers have only defeated opponents on the road this season by more than 7 points — they beat the Cavaliers in Cleveland by 9 points on November 17th before winning in Detroit against the Pistons by 16 points on December 23rd. Since that win in Detroit, the Sixers have lost seven of their last nine games on the road. Atlanta has covered the point spread in four of their last five games at home as an underdog getting at least 2 points — and they have pulled the upset in three of those games. 25* NBA Underdog of the Month with Atlanta Hawks (573) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (574). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (565) minus the points versus the Sacramento Kings (566). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (28-20) saw their five-game winning streak snapped on Monday with their 107-97 loss at home to Dallas as a 4.5-point underdog. Sacramento (17-29) has won two in a row after being on a six-game losing streak with their 133-129 win at Minnesota on Monday as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma City has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread setback. The Thunder have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit loss at home. Oklahoma City did not have the services of Chris Paul in that game with him taking a personal day after the news of the death of Kobe Bryant. The Thunder made only 39.5% of their shots without Paul in what was the worst shooting effort in their last 35 games. Paul is expected to be back on the court tonight — and Oklahoma City has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after winning at least four of their last five games. Even with their disappointing shooting performance on Monday, the Thunder is still averaging a 49.8% field goal percentage over their last five games which has generated 116.4 PPG over that span. Now Oklahoma City goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games against teams with a losing record at home. Additionally, the Thunder have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Sacramento outscored the Timberwolves by a 21-4 margin over the last 2:30 in the 4th quarter to force overtime to eke out that game. The Kings made 50% of their shots in what was the best shooting effort in their last five games. But Sacramento has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. The Kings have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. Now this team returns home for the first time since January 15th — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games after being on the road for at least seven days. Sacramento is 8-13 at home — and they are just 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games on their home court. The Kings are also just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games as an underdog — and they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Sacramento may not be at full strength for this game with Marvin Bagley III listed as questionable with a foot injury.

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma City is looking to avenge a 94-93 loss at Sacramento back on December 11th in the last meeting between these two teams. The Thunder have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NBA Road Warrior of the Month with the Oklahoma City Thunder (565) minus the points versus the Sacramento Kings (566). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (550) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (549). THE SITUATION: Memphis (22-24) has won two straight games as well as nine of their last eleven contests with their 114-109 victory on Sunday as a 2-point favorite. Denver (32-14) has won two straight games with their 117-110 win over Houston as a 2-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES MINUS THE POINTS: Memphis should continue to build off the momentum of their victory on Sunday as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Led by rookie sensation Ja Morant, the Grizzlies are steadily improving with a balanced scoring attack with five players that average at least 10 PPG. Memphis made 52.4% of their shots on Sunday — and they shot 54.4% from the field in a 114-109 victory in Detroit against the Pistons in their previous contest. The Grizzlies have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after scoring at least 110 points in two straight games. Memphis has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after making at least 50% of their shots in two straight games. The Grizzlies have a field goal percentage of 48.6% over their last five games. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games. Memphis has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games as the favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home when favored by no more than 6 points. The Grizzlies are also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Memphis is undermanned in this game with Jae Crowder doubtful with a knee injury and Grayson Allen is out with a hip injury. But the Nuggets are also missing some important players with Jamal Murray, Paul Millsap, and Mason Plumlee all out with injuries as well. Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win. The Nuggets have also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 road games after scoring at least 115 points in their last game. Furthermore, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after winning two games in a row. The Nuggets have covered the point spread in two straight games as well as three of their last four games. Denver has then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Nuggets go back on the road for the fourth time in their last five contests — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 straight road games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips to Memphis to face the Grizzlies. Memphis will be looking to avenge a 119-110 loss to the Nuggets back on December 28th. The Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 home games when playing with revenge from a same season loss. 25* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month with the Memphis Grizzlies (550) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (549). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (527) and the Detroit Pistons (528). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (12-34) has lost seven straight games after their 118-106 loss to Chicago on Saturday as a 1-point favorite. Detroit (17-30) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 121-111 loss to Brooklyn on Saturday as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cavaliers have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Cleveland has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Defense has been a significant problem for this team under first-year head coach John Beilein. The Cavaliers have allowed their last five opponents to make 52.2% of their shots from the field. Cleveland now goes back on the road where their home hosts are making 49.5% of their shots which has translated into 115.4 PPG. The Cavaliers gave played 12 of their last 17 road games Over the Total. Cleveland has also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. Detroit has played 4 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread setback. The Pistons made only 41.3% of their shots on Friday which was the lowest field goal percentage for them in their last six contests. Detroit does expect to get Reggie Jackson back tonight as he is listed as probable despite his back issues. The Pistons stay at home where they are making 47.5% of their shots which has resulted in 111.9 PPG. Detroit is also allowing its visitors to score 112.1 PPG on 47.2% shooting from the field. The Pistons have played 19 of their last 26 home games Over the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 10 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Furthermore, Detroit has played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 straight meetings Over the Total. Expect another high scoring game between these two teams. 25* NBA Central Division Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (527) and the Detroit Pistons (528). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Pelicans (516) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Boston Celtics (515). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (17-29) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 113-106 loss to Denver as a 4-point favorite on Friday. Boston (30-14) has won three straight games with their 109-98 upset win at Orlando on Friday as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PELICANS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): New Orleans shot just 46.3% of their shots in their loss to the Nuggets which was their worst shooting effort in their last five games. The Pelicans are still scoring a robust 123.4 PPG over their last five games while making 49.9% of their shots. New Orleans has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. This team has been jumpstarted by the debut of rookie phenom Zion Williamson who has averaged 18.5 PPG while rebounding 6.5 RPG despite not playing 20 minutes per game in his first two contests. His presence on the court should provide plenty of energy and enthusiasm for this team. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home  games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Pelicans are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games as a dog. Furthermore, New Orleans is 5-2-2 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Boston has won their last three games all by at least 11 points — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning at least three in a row by double-digits. And while the Celtics have covered the point spread in all three of those games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. Boston held the Magic to just 40% shooting on Friday which tied for the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage they have allowed in their last fourteen games. Yet this team is not playing at full strength with Enes Kantor still out with a foot injury while both Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are questionable with an ankle and groin issues. The Pelicans are allowing 117.6 PPG this season — but the Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 42 games in the second half of the season against teams who allow at least 110 PPG. Boston has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games with the Total set at 230 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans will be looking to avenge a brutal 140-105 loss in Boston back on January 11th — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when avenging a loss on the road by at least 20 points. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break ESPN Game of the Year with the New Orleans Pelicans (516) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Boston Celtics (515). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (510) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (509). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (29-17) saw their four-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday with their 107-95 loss at Toronto as a 6.5-point underdog. Los Angeles (36-9) has won two straight games as well as twelve of their last fourteen contests with their 128-113 win at Brooklyn as a 5.5-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 76ERS PLUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a double-digit loss to Atlantic Division rivals. The 76ers have also still covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning three of their last four contests. Philly will be undermanned for this showdown with Joel Embiid missing his ninth straight game with his finger injury and now Josh Richardson will be out with a hamstring — but this puts the onus on Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris to raise their games. The Sixers have played surprisingly well without Embiid as Simmons has stepped up to be the best player on the team in his absence while Al Horford has gotten to play more minutes with his role on the team being perhaps too duplicative to that of Embiid when both are healthy and on the court. Now after playing their last three games on the road, Philadelphia returns home where they are 20-2 with an average winning margin of +9.9 PPG. The Sixers made only 38.1% of their shots on Wednesday which was the lowest field goal percentage for them in their last six games. Philly should shoot better tonight back at home where they are nailing 48% of their shots. The 76ers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 36 of their last 53 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Los Angeles nailed 50% of their shots on Thursday in what was the best offensive performance in their last five games. The Lakers are just 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games when playing with one day of rest. Los Angeles is also playing their fifth straight game on the road and third in five days as they conclude this east coast swing tonight. The Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games when playing their third game on the road in five days. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 47 games against teams from the Eastern Conference. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.

FINAL TAKE: The Lakers will not be at full strength tonight either with JaVale McGee questionable with an illness and Anthony Davis questionable once again with a gluteus injury. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as the favorite. Philly has covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home as the underdog. Expect a close game that the Sixers will have an opportunity to win. 25* NBA Saturday ABC-TV Game of the Month with the Philadelphia 76ers (510) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (509). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (563) and the Orlando Magic (564). THE SITUATION: Boston (29-14) has won two straight games with their 119-95 win over Memphis on Wednesday as a 7-point favorite. Orlando (21-24) has lost three of their last four games after their 120-114 loss to Oklahoma City on Wednesday as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Magic played their worst defensive game of the season on Wednesday against the Thunder as they allowed them to make 60.5% of their shots. Orlando has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to make at least 60% of their shots. The Magic have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Orlando has played 24 of their last 35 games Under the Total after a narrow loss by 6 points or less including four of these last five situations. The Magic also nailed 47.8% of their shots against the Thunder which was tied for second-best in their last nineteen contests. Now Orlando returns home where they are holding their opponents to just 43.9% shooting from the field. The Magic have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 12 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Orlando has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as a favorite. Boston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. The Celtics now go on the road where they are scoring 108.5 PPG on 44.1% shooting from the field — and those numbers are a bit below their 112.5 PPG scoring average overall on 46.1% shooting. Boston will be undermanned tonight with Jayson Tatum out with a groin injury along with Enes Kanter who is dealing with a foot injury — and Jaylen Brown is questionable with the ankle injury that he has been dealing with all month. That means more playing time for Marcus Smart who is an outstanding defender but inconsistent on the offensive end of the court. The Celtics have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and Boston has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing the Magic in Orlando. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics (563) and the Orlando Magic (564). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (543) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (544). THE SITUATION: Memphis (20-23) saw their seven-game winning streak snapped on Monday with their 126-116 upset loss at home to New Orleans as a 3-point favorite. Boston (28-14) snapped their three-game losing streak on Monday with their 139-107 upset win at home over the Los Angeles Lakers as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES PLUS THE POINTS: The Celtics stepped up to play one of their best games of the season on national television on Monday. They shot 55.9% from the field which was their best shooting mark in their last twenty games. But Boston has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after making at least 55% of their shots in their last game. The Celtics also held the Lakers to just 43.8% shooting from the field which was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five contests. But Boston has still allowed their last five opponents to shoot 49.1% overall. An emotional letdown is like for this team that has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a victory by at least 10 points. The Celtics have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Boston has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after a game where at least 235 combined points were scored — and they are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring at least 125 points in their last game. This is another expected higher-scoring game tonight — and the Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set at 230 or higher. Boston stays at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 8 games as a favorite, the Celtics have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these contests. Memphis allowed the Pelicans to make 47.7% of their shots on Monday which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last four contests — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 125 points in their last game. But the bigger aberration in that game was that the Grizzlies made only 44.7% of their shots which was their lowest shooting mark in their last fourteen games. Memphis has still shot 48.5% from the field over their last five games — and while they rank 16th in the NBA in Offensive Rating, they have raised their mark to 6th in the league over their last fifteen games. They have scored at least 110 points in fourteen straight contests — and they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after scoring at least 110 points in at least two straight games. Rookie Ja Morant looks to be an emerging superstar in the league for years to come — but what makes this team dangerous is the combination of him with Jalen Jackson, Jr., Dillon Brooks, and Brandon Clarke which gives this team one of the most promising core group of younger players in the NBA. Rookie head coach Taylor Jenkins has also pushed all the right buttons for this team — the Grizzlies outscored their opponents by +61 net points in the 3rd quarter during their recent seven-game winning streak. The Grizzlies have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Memphis has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a game where at least 230 combined points were scored — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in expected higher scoring games with the Total set at 230 or higher. Now this team goes back on the road where they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home — and they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 road games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Celtics saw the return of Kemba Walker and Jaylen Brown on Monday to help jettison them to victory but Brown is questionable for this game with an ankle. The Grizzlies have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 trips to Boston to face the Celtics. 25* NBA Underdog of the Month with the Memphis Grizzlies (543) plus the points versus the Boston Celtics (544). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (532) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (531). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (26-16) has won three of their last five games after their 117-106 win over Brooklyn on Wednesday as a 7-point favorite. Chicago (15-27) has won two of their last three games with their 115-106 win over Washington on Wednesday as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 76ERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Bulls made 50.6% of their shots again the Wizards which was tied for the best shooting effort in their last eleven games. Chicago is likely due for a letdown now. As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 38 games are a straight-up win — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a victory on their home court. The Bulls have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 115 points in their last game. Now this team goes on the road where they are just 7-13 this season. Chicago is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games as an underdog. The Bulls have also failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 49 road games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. Defense had been the calling card for this team under head coach Jim Boylen despite the players on this team appearing to not appreciate his coaching style — but they have allowed their last five opponents to make 48.9% of their shots while ranking 24th in the NBA in Defensive Rating over that span. Perhaps Boylen is having his team begin to sacrifice defense for offense at this point of the season? But while the Bulls’ Offensive Rating ranking 20th in the league over their last five games is a bump up over their 27th ranking this year, the drop in defense has been more significant considering that they rank 9th in NBA in Defensive Rating. Chicago has still lost seven of their last ten games. And they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. Philadelphia covered the point spread in just their second game in their last seven contests on Wednesday — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. The 76ers are very tough to beat at home where they are now 19-2 with an average winning margin of +9.8 PPG. The Sixers make 48% of their shots at home which has generated 111.9 PPG. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. The 76ers are still without Joel Embiid who is out with a dislocated finger but his absence opens up playing time for Al Horford who has not been a good fit for this team when sharing playing time on the court with Embiid.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. Chicago is 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Look for the Sixers to pull away in this game. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Game of the Month with the Philadelphia 76ers (532) minus the points versus the Chicago Bulls (531). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (502) minus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (501). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (25-16) has lost two straight games as well as six of their last eight contests after their 101-95 loss at Indiana on Monday as a 3.5-point underdog. Brooklyn (18-20) had won their last two games before losing last night at home to Utah by a 118-107 score as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 76ERS MINUS THE POINTS: Philadelphia has struggled as of late as they have only covered the point spread once their last six games — but they have then covered the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Sixers have been without Joel Embiid who is out with a dislocated finger — but his absence gives Al Horford more of an opportunity who has not been a good fit when playing on the floor at the same time as Embiid. The stronger explanation for those six losses over their last eight games is that they all occurred on the road where Philadelphia is just 7-14 this season. Now the 76ers return home where they are a dominant 18-2 with an average winning margin of +9.7 PPG. The Sixers are scoring 111.6 PPG at home while making 47.8% of their shots from the field. They are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Philadelphia is also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-80% range. The Nets have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, Brooklyn has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit loss. And in their last 19 games when playing without a day of rest, the Nets have failed to cover the point spread 13 times. This team has seen Kyrie Irving return to the court after he missed 26 games to an injury. But questions remain if Irving elevates or gets in the way of his teammates — Brooklyn was 13-13 while he was injured but just 5-7 with him healthy and in the mix. Now this team goes back on the road where they are 7-12 while making just 43.1% of their shots. The Nets have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia is looking to avenge a 109-89 upset loss at Brooklyn back on December 15th as a 4-point underdog. The 76ers have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 46 games at home when avenging a loss. They also have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 meetings with the Nets. 25* NBA Wednesday ESPN Game of the Month with the Philadelphia 76ers (502) minus the points versus the Brooklyn Nets (501). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (505) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (506). THE SITUATION: Portland (16-22) Portland (16-22) has won two of their last three games with their 101-99 upset win at Toronto as a 2.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Minnesota (14-22) saw their two-game winning streak on Tuesday with their 119-112 loss at Memphis as a 4.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Defense has been for the Trail Blazers this season but they stepped up on Tuesday by holding the Raptors to just 36.5% shooting from the field. With Rodney Hood on the shelf with an Achilles’ injury, his absence allows head coach Terry Stotts to deploy more defensive-friendly lineups. But missing Hood over the last month takes away from Portland’s offensive attack. They are scoring 3.4 PPG less over their last five games versus their 112.0 PPG season average. They are playing their fifth straight game on the road tonight — and they abbe played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing their fourth game on the road in the last seven days. The Trail Blazers have played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total — and they have played 7 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, Portland has played 6 straight road games Under the Total as a favorite. Minnesota will look to play better on the defensive end of the court tonight after surrendering 68 points in the second half including a whopping 37 points in the final 12 minutes in their loss to the Grizzlies. Head coach Ryan Saunders had his team playing much better defense as of late. While the Timberwolves rank 15th in the NBA in Defensive Rating, they are 3rd best in the league over their last five games even after their dismal second half effort on Tuesday. Minnesota has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. The T-Wolves return home where they are making only 41.2% of their shots which has translated into 108.5 PPG. Minnesota will likely be without their best offensive player tonight as well with Karl Anthony-Towns listed as questionable with his knee injury that has kept him out the last eleven games. Over their last five games with Anthony-Towns, the Timberwolves are scoring only 105.4 PPG on 44.9% shooting from the field — and their 26th Offensive Rating are a few notches below their 23rd ranking overall for the season. Minnesota has played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. The Timberwolves have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota will be looking to avenge a 113-106 loss at Portland back on December 21st. The Timberwolves have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road to their opponent. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break Northwest Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Portland Trail Blazers (505) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Memphis Grizzlies (535) plus the points versus the Oklahoma City Thunder (536). THE SITUATION: Memphis (11-20) has lost three of their last four games with their 145-115 loss to San Antonio as a 1-point underdog on Monday. Oklahoma City (15-14) has won four straight games — as well as nine of their last twelve contests — with their 118-112 win over the Los Angeles Clippers as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GRIZZLIES PLUS THE POINTS: The holiday break may have come at the wrong time for this Thunder team that had been on a roll. Oklahoma City has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with at least three days of rest. While the Thunder have been surging on the offensive end of the court, they have allowed their last five opponents to make 48.3% of their shots. Oklahoma City gets Danilo Gallinari back on the court tonight after he was out with an injury but Hamidou Diallo remains out with an elbow injury. The Thunder tend to underachieve against the lesser teams in the league as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage at 40% or less. Oklahoma City has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. Memphis is a dangerous underdog behind rookie phenom Ja Morant — they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. Their last two victories were upset wins over Sacramento and Miami. Head coach Taylor Jenkins should have had the attention of his players this week after the Grizzlies played their worst defensive game of the season by allowing the Spurs to nail 67.4% of their shots on Monday. Memphis has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing their last opponent to make at least 60% of their shots. The Grizzlies have also rebounded to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss. Memphis’ shooting should help them keep this game close as they are making 47.5% of their shots over their last five games.

FINAL TAKE: The Grizzlies will be looking to avenge a 126-122 loss to the Thunder back on December 18th where they blew a 24-point lead. The Thunder have been living dangerously as they rallied from a 26-point deficit to Chicago in their previous game before pulling out the win. Memphis has covered the point spread in 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two teams. Don’t be surprised if Oklahoma City is listless for much of this game since their sloppy play has not been punished as of late. 25* NBA Western Conference Underdog of the Month with the Memphis Grizzlies (535) plus the points versus the Oklahoma City Thunder (536). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (530) minus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Clippers (529). THE SITUATION: The Lakers (24-6) have lost three straight games after their 128-104 upset loss at home to Denver on Sunday as a 2.5-point favorite. The Clippers (22-10) have lost two of their last three games — as well as three of their last five contests — with their 118-112 loss at Oklahoma City as a 1.5-point underdog. While the Lakers are the technical home team home for this game, the Staples Center is the home arena for both these teams.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS MINUS THE POINT(S): LeBron James did not play on Sunday in the loss to the Nuggets. The Lakers allowed Denver to make 48.9% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six games. The Lakers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a loss by at least 20 points. The Lakers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing a game where at least 220 combined points were scored. The loss to Denver came on the heels of an 111-104 loss at Milwaukee where the Lakers fell behind by a 65-46 score by halftime. Perhaps the wear of completing a five-game road trip contributed to the Lakers’ poor start in that game — but give this team credit for fighting in the second half to make it close since giving up in that regular-season game would have been easy. This team seems to be wanting to make a statement with a refreshed LeBron James who got his first postseason off in what seems like forever. James has formed a deadly pick-and-roll combination with Anthony Davis who seems to determined to prove he is one of the best players in the league. Davis had missed the previous game which was a loss in Indiana which started this losing streak. But James and Davis looked prime to play in this national prime-time game on Christmas where the NBA captures the spotlight — the Lakers even held an impromptu practice on Tuesday to prepare for this contest. The team also has Kyle Kuzma finally back after he missed time with an injury — so this group is as close to full strength as they have been in a while. Kuzma is the wild card for this team because they become very tough to beat if he develops into a reliable third scoring threat after James and Davis. The Lakers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games with the Total set at 220 or higher. The Lakers gave also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Clippers are struggling on the defensive end of the court with the 47.4% shooting percentage of the Thunder coming on the heels of Houston and San Antonio shooting 50.0% and 51.2% from the field respectively. The loss to the Rockets may have exposed a weakness of Doc Rivers team that will take some time to work out as they blew a 69-54 halftime lead. The Clippers were outscored by 11 points in the final five minutes of that game with Kawhi Leonard resorting to one-on-five hero ball but making only one of four shots during that span with zero assists and one turnover. The Clippers are perhaps getting lulled into too high scoring of games for what is optimal for their effectiveness (again, they have lost three of their last five contests). They have seen at least 215 combined points in their last six games — and they have scored at least 112 points in four straight games. But the Clippers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games are scoring at least 110 points in their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 105 points in four straight games. Furthermore, while the Clippers are outscoring their opponents by +7.1 PPG this season, because they have allowed at least 109 points in three straight games, they fall into a historical “play-against” angle that has been 86% effective since 1996. Teams that outscore their opponents by at least +6.0 PPG while allowing at least 105 points in three straight games have then failed to cover the point spread in 31 of these last 36 situations going back to 1996. And while the Clippers average 115.7 PPG, the Lakers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against teams who score at least 110 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the opening night showdown between these two teams in the Staples Center that the Clippers upset the Lakers by a 112-102 score as a 3.5-point underdog. The Lakers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when motivated by revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when avenging an upset loss. 25* NBA Pre-All Star Break ABC-TV Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Lakers (530) minus the point(s) versus the Los Angeles Clippers (529). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (525) and the Philadelphia 76ers (526). THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (27-4) has won three straight games with their 117-89 win over Indiana on Sunday as an 8.5-point favorite. Philadelphia (22-10) snapped a three-game losing streak by winning their last two games after their 125-109 win over Detroit on Monday as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bucks win over the Pacers did not reach the 220 point total — but they have played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished below the number. Milwaukee shot just 42.3% from the field which was their second-lowest field goal percentage all season. The Bucks are still second in the NBA in Offensive Rating — and they lead the league in pace by averaging 105.2 possessions per contest. Milwaukee is scoring 119.8 PPG on the road while making a robust 48.1% of their shots. Their victory over the Pacers came on the heels of a 123-102 win in New York over the Knicks — and they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after two straight double-digit wins while also playing 13 of their last 16 road games Over the Total after winning two straight games by 10 or more points. Milwaukee has also played 34 of their last 52 games Over the Total after two straight victories by at least 20 points. The Bucks will be without point guard Eric Bledsoe for the sixth straight game — and they will miss his ball-hawking defensive skills. Milwaukee is allowing their last five opponents (without Bledsoe) to make 42.9% of their shots which is a bit higher than their 41.4 opponent’s field goal percentage for the season. Now the Bucks go back on the road where the Over is 12-5-1 in their last 18 road games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Milwaukee does a fantastic job of protecting the rim with either Brook or Robin Lopez on the floor with Giannis Antetokounmpo — but this does come at the expense of allowing their opponents to launch 3s. The Bucks’ opponents are taking 38.7% of their shots from behind the arc which is the third-highest mark in the league. Philadelphia is 9th in the NBA by making 36.3% of their 3-point shots. The 76ers are scoring 110.8 PPG on their home court on 47.8% shooting from the field. Philly has played 4 straight games Over the Total at home — and the Over is 11-4-1 in their last 16 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Sixers have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total at home as an underdog. But defense has been an issue for this team as they have allowed their last seven opponents to score at least 109 PPG. The Pistons were the second opponent in their last three games to nail at least 51.2% of their shots from the field. Philadelphia has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 105 points in three straight games.

FINAL TAKE: This is the first meeting between these two teams since their 128-122 scoring fest in Philadelphia back on April 4th that the Bucks won. These two teams have played 5 straight meetings Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 encounters in Philadelphia Over the Total. 25* NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (525) and the Philadelphia 76ers (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (511) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (512). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (24-3) has won seven straight games with their 101-96 win in Atlanta on Sunday as a 12-point favorite. Indiana (512) has won three straight games after their 107-85 win at home over Charlotte on Sunday as an 11.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles is dominating the NBA with a refreshed LeBron James joining forces with a legitimate superstar in Anthony Davis and a rejuvenated Dwight Howard who has fit in quite nicely with this team. The Lakers are 5th in the NBA on Offensive Rating and 2nd in the league in Defensive Rating. While they have not covered their last two games, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning but failing to cover the point spread in their last two games. This is the Lakers’ fourth straight game on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after winning their previous two games on the road. LA has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win. The Lakers are 14-1 on the road this season with an average winning margin of +7.5 PPG. They are averaging 113.6 PPG on the road while making 48.6% of their shots. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. The Lakers are playing well right now on the offensive end of the court as they are nailing 49.7% of their shots over their last five games. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. Indiana is a consistent team that is very well-coached by Nate McMillan — they usually take care of business against the lesser teams in the league. But the Pacers lack superstars — especially with Victor Oladipo still out with his knee injury — which helps explain why they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Indiana has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight home games hosting teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. The Pacers ave failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a double-digit victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a win by at least 20 points in their home court. And while Indiana’s win over the Hornets was preceded by a 110-100 win over Atlanta, the Pacers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after winning two straight games by double-digits. Indiana is also coming off their best defensive game of the season as they held Charlotte to use 30.8% shooting. Indiana has covered the point spread as the favorite in their last three victories — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning their last three games where they also have covered the point spread as the favorite in all three games. Indiana has also been outrebounded in their last three games by at least 5 boards — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after being outrebounded by at least 5 boards in three straight contests.

FINAL TAKE: Indiana’s success this season has been dependent on Domantas Sabonis on both ends of the court — but he is listed as questionable with a toe injury. Davis is listed as questionable after rolling his right ankle on Sunday but he did play through that injury in that game so I expect him to play. Kyle Kuzma is also questionable after missing the previous three games with an ankle injury — but he is not an indispensable member of this team anymore James and Davis dominating their opponents. 5* NBA Road Warrior of the Month with the Los Angeles Lakers (511) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (563) and the Denver Nuggets (564). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (11-13) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday with their 94-93 loss at Sacramento as a 2-point underdog. Denver (15-8) ended their three-game losing streak on Thursday with their 114-99 win over Portland as an 8-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Thunder have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. Oklahoma City has also played 6 straight games Under the Total after a point spread win. Now this team stays on the road where they are making only 43.8% of their shots as compared to their 46.5% shooting mark overall. The Thunder have played 4 straight games Under the Total on the road. Oklahoma City has also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on their home court. Denver made 47.7% of their shots on Thursday fueled by nailing 18 of their 36 shots from behind the arc — so they are likely to get a visit from the Regression Gods when it comes to their outside shooting. As it is, the Nuggets have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 10 points. Denver has also played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. Now this team stays at home where they have played 24 of their last 32 games Under the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 14 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. And in their last 14 games as a favorite laying 3.5 to 9.5 points, the Nuggets have played 11 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 10 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games played in Denver Under the Total. 25* NBA Northwest Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Oklahoma City Thunder (563) and the Denver Nuggets (564). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between New York Knicks (545) and the Sacramento Kings (546). THE SITUATION: New York (5-20) snapped their ten-game winning streak on Wednesday with their 124-122 win at Golden State as a 4.5-point underdog. Sacramento (11-13) has won their last three games with their 94-93 win over Oklahoma City on Wednesday as a 2-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Knicks have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after pulling off an upset win. New York has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Under is 13-4-1 in New York’s last 18 games when playing with one day of rest. This team has played better defense under interim head coach Mike Miller since management fired David Fizdale. The Knicks have held their last two opponents to 43.3% shooting. New York also made a surprising 47.8% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting effort in their last seventeen contests. But this is not a strong offensive team — Marcus Morris is their leading scoring. They are still only making 39% of their shots over their last five games — and they are shooting just 41.7% when playing on the road. The Under is 38-18-1 in the Knicks’ last 57 games as an underdog. And in their last 4 games against teams with a losing record, the game finished Under the Total all 4 times. Sacramento has seen the Under go 21-9-1 in their last 31 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Kings stay at home where they ave played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have also played 16 of their last 23 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Furthermore, Sacramento has played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total against teams from the Eastern Conference.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight games Under the Total — and they have also played 4 straight Unders when playing in Sacramento. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between New York Knicks (545) and the Sacramento Kings (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (504) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (503). THE SITUATION: Toronto (16-7) snapped a three-game losing streak on Monday with their 93-92 victory at Chicago as a 6-point favorite. Los Angeles (18-7) has won two straight as well as four of their last five games with their 110-99 upset win at Indiana on Monday as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS PLUS THE POINTS: Toronto has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered a decisive 21 of their last 26 games when playing with one day of rest. And while the Raptors have not covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. They defeated the Bulls despite making just 37.8% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last five contests. Toronto has not missed much of a beat despite losing Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green in the offseason. Pascal Siakam has filled the role as the team’s number one scoring option. Siakam exploded to start the season by scoring 27.9 PPG while rebounding 9.3 RPG and adding 3.6 Assists-Per-Game in his first eight games with 51.9/41.3/95.0 shooting splits. Regression was not surprising but Siakam still scored 22.8 PPG over his next fourteen games (before Monday) with 8.1 RPG and 3.7 APG while producing still solid shooting splits of 42.8/34.1/73.0. The Raptors won nine of those fourteen games despite Siakam’s drop-in productizing while dealing with some injuries to Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka over that span. Toronto now returns home where they are 9-2 this season with an average winning margin of +8.6 PPG. This team remains elite on defense this season — they are holding their visitors to just 41.7% shooting on their home court. But second-year head coach Nick Nurse deserves a ton of credit for maintaining a highly efficient offense without Leonard — the Raptors are scoring 118.5 PPG at home while nailing 47.7% of their shots. The Raptors are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Toronto has also covered the point spread 12 of their last 17 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they are 5-0-2 ATS in their last 7 home games as an underdog. The Raptors are also 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games against teams with a winning record. Los Angeles played its best defensive game of the season on Monday by holding the Pacers to just 35.4% shooting from the field. But the Clippers have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 after a win on the road. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning two games in a row. Furthermore, while Los Angeles has only lost one game via the point spread in their last five contests, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after covering the point spread expectation in four or five of their last six games. And while the Clippers have scored 135 and 110 points in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 110 points in their previous two games. Now this team stays on the road for the fourth straight game but they are just 5-6 away from home this season while being outscored by -1.0 PPG. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Leonard did not play on Monday but will take the court again tonight in his return to Toronto where he will be given his championship ring. But his former Raptors’ teammates will be motivated to avenge a 98-88 loss to the Clippers in the Staples Center back on November 11th. 25* NBA Wednesday ESPN Game of the Month with the Toronto Raptors (504) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (503). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (573) and the Philadelphia 76ers (574). THE SITUATION: Denver (14-7) has lost two straight games as well as four of their last five contests after their 105-102 upset loss at Brooklyn as a 4-point favorite on Sunday. Philadelphia (17-7) has won two straight games as well as six of their last seven games with their 110-104 win over Toronto as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 23 of their last 33 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Denver has also played 5 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. The Nuggets lead the NBA by allowing just 101.9 PPG. They stay on the road where they have played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Denver has also played 7 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Philadelphia has seen the Under go 6-1-1 in their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after a point spread victory. The Under is also 8-3-1 in their last 12 games after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. They stay at home where they are holding their opponents to just 43.8% shooting from the field. The Under is 12-3-1 in the 76ers’ last 16 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Under is also 19-7-1 in Philadelphia’s last 27 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The 76ers will be looking to avenge a 100-97 loss at Denver back on November 8th — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road to their opponent. 25* NBA Tuesday TNT Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (573) and the Philadelphia 76ers (574). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (518) minus the points versus the Washington Wizards (517). THE SITUATION: Miami (15-6) had their three-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday with their 112-93 loss in Boston as a 5.5-point underdog. Washington (7-13) ended their three-game losing streak last night with their 119-113 upset victory over Philadelphia as a 7.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT MINUS THE POINTS: Miami should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a double-digit loss. The Heat are also 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after a point spread loss. Now this team returns home after playing their last three games on the road where they are a perfect 8-0 with an average winning margin of +18.1 PPG. Miami has been outstanding on the offensive end of the court this season — they are making 51.4% of their shots at home which has translated into 118.7 PPG. The Heat are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games at home — and they are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Miami is also 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. Washington won last night despite allowing the 76ers to make 53.2% of their shots from the field. The Wizards struggle on defense — they have allowed each of their last six opponents to make at least 51.1% of their shots. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing their last five opponents to all shoot at least 47% of their shots. Now the Wizards go back on the road where they are just 3-8 this season. Washington allows their home hosts to make 48.9% of their shots which has resulted in 122.1 PPG. The Wizards are just 9-25-1 ATS in their last 35 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. And while the Heat shoot 47.4% from the field, Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 16 road games against teams who make at least 46% of their shots.

FINAL TAKE: Both teams are undermanned in this contest. The Wizards will be without Isaiah Thomas, Thomas Bryant, and Ian Mahinmi who made his season debut last night. The Heat will likely be without Justise Winslow and Goran Dragic but this team has depth and they are still led by Jimmy Butler who is scoring 20.1 PPG while dishing out 6.5 Assists-Per-Game. 25* NBA Southeast Division Game of the Month with the Miami Heat (518) minus the points versus the Washington Wizards (517). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (569) and the Utah Jazz (570). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (18-3) enters this game coming off a 105-96 upset win at Denver last night as a 2.5-point underdog. Utah (12-9) has lost two straight games as well as four of their last five contests after their 103-94 loss at Philadelphia as a 5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lakers have played 5 straight games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Los Angeles has also played 25 of their last 34 games Under the Total after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Lakers have seen the Under go 18-6-3 in their last 27 games when playing a game without a day of rest — and they have also played 7 of their last road games Under the Total after playing the previous day also away from home. Anthony Davis is an early contender for Defensive Player of the Year with him playing his best defensive basketball in his career. He has helped the Lakers hold their last five opponents to just 42% shooting from the field. Utah has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have also played 22 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Now this team returns home where they are holding their visitors to just 42.1% shooting which is translating into just 103.4 PPG. The Jazz have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Utah has also played 15 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Jazz have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 10 games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range, Utah has played 8 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing in Utah. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (569) and the Utah Jazz (570). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Miami Heat (568) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (567). THE SITUATION: Miami (12-5) has lost two of their last three games after their 117-108 loss in Houston on Wednesday as a 7-point underdog. Golden State (4-15) snapped their three-game losing streak on Wednesday with their 104-90 upset win over Chicago as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HEAT MINUS THE POINTS: Miami should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games after a point spread win. The Heat started slow in that game as they trailed at halftime by a 66-42 score — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after going into halftime with at least a 20 point deficit. Miami should get Jimmy Butler back for this game after he missed that game with the Rockets with an illness — he has been upgraded to probable for this game. The team got back Justise Winslow in that contest on Wednesday after he had been out since November 5th going through the concussion protocol. The Heat return home where they are a perfect 8-0 this season with an average winning margin of +18.3 PPG. Miami is scoring 118.3 PPG while making 51.1% of their shots — and they are holding their visitors to just 42.4% shooting from the field. The Heat have covered all 8 of their home games this season — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 straight home games when laying 6.5 to 12 points. Miami has also covered the point spread in 8 straight games when the favorite laying the points — and they are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. Golden State is due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after an upset victory as an underdog — including failing to cover the point spread all three times with this situation this season. The Warriors have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a double-digit win as an underdog with them failing to cover both those situations this season. Golden State has the worst record in the NBA with Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry both out for most of the season. This team has also been playing without Draymond Green and D’Angelo Russell although Green is back on the court tonight. The Warriors are just 2-7 on the road this year where they are being outscored by -11.3 PPG die to their defense that is allowing their opponents to make 49.5% of their shots which is translating into 118.9 PPG. With a makeshift rotation made of rookie and journeyman veterans like point guard Alec Burks, Willie-Cauley Stein, and Glenn Robinson III, this team is making only 42.6% of their shots on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against teams from the Eastern Conference — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Look for Miami to blow out the Warriors. 25* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Miami Heat (568) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (567). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (546) minus the points versus the Houston Rockets (545). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (10-5) has won three straight games as well as five of their last seven games after their 107-104 win in overtime over Boston on Wednesday as a 7.5-point favorite. Houston (11-4) had their eight-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday with their 105-95 loss at Denver as a 1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: That victory over the Celtics was the debut of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George playing together at the same time after injuries have kept them apart for their new team. Los Angeles is now 9-1 on their home court with an average scoring margin of +10.7 net PPG due to their strong defensive play that is limiting their guests to just 40.6% shooting from the field. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games when favored by up to 5 points. Los Angeles has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread setback. James Harden is scoring a remarkable 38.4 PPG but the Rockets may be too reliant on his scoring given his usage rate that began the week at over 40%. The Nuggets had success double-teaming Harden in that game with his teammates unable to make enough of their open shots. Houston shot just 42.1% from the field in that loss. This team has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Now the Rockets stay on the road where they are allowing their home hosts to shoot 47.4% from the field. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 road games coming off a game on the road. The Rockets have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 road games as an underdog getting up to 6 points.

FINAL TAKE: Houston will be without Eric Gordon for this game who is pout with an injury. The Clippers will be looking to avenge a 112-93 loss at Houston back on November 13th. Doc Rivers’ team has covered the point spread in 6 of their 8 games this season when avenging a same-season loss — and they have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 46 games when avenging a loss where they surrendered at least 100 points. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Clippers (546) minus the points versus the Houston Rockets (545). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (526) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (525). THE SITUATION: Phoenix (7-6) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 120-116 loss at Sacramento as a 3-point underdog on Tuesday. New Orleans (5-9) has won their last two games after their 115-104 win over Portland as a 3-point favorite on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: Both these young teams are M*A*S*H units right now — I will address that in my Final Take. The Pelicans are due for an emotional letdown as they win these games at less than full strength. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 49 of their last 78 road games after a double-digit win at home. Now this team goes back on the road where they are just 1-5 this season while getting outscored by -7.0 PPG due to a defense that is allowing 120.8 PPG. The Pelicans are allowing their last five opponents to make 48.7% of their shots. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. The Pelicans have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of the last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Phoenix has been one of the surprises of the league with their fast start before suffering their recent slide. Head coach Monty Williams has done a nice job with this team — and they have an underrated rising star in Devin Booker. The Suns have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss. Now they return home where they are 5-4 while outscoring their opponents by +5.0 PPG due to an offense that is scoring 115.2 PPG on 47.6% shooting from the field. Phoenix has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40% on the road. The Suns have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% overall — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games with the Total set at 220 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Suns are still without center DeAndre Ayton who is serving his 25-game suspension — and they will be without big man Aron Baynes who is dealing with a hip injury. Ricky Rubio is also doubtful for this game with a back issue. But they still have Kelly Oubre and Dario Saric to complement the best player on the court tonight in Booker. The Pelicans still have Jrue Holliday — but Derrick Favors and Josh Hart are out tonight along with Zion Williamson and Lonzo Ball is questionable to miss his seventh straight game with his ankle injury. 25* NBA Thursday TNT Game of the Month with the Phoenix Suns (526) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (525). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Utah Jazz (517) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (518). THE SITUATION: Utah (8-5) has lost two games in a row after their 112-102 upset loss at home to Minnesota on Monday as a 9-point favorite. Minnesota (8-6) snapped a two-game winning streak with the win.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAZZ MINUS THE POINTS: That was the first home loss of the season for Utah — and their two-game losing streak has put a damper on what was their best start to a new season in a decade. The Jazz made only 36.5% of their shots in that game which was the worst offensive effort for them all season. Head coach Quin Snyder’s team should respond with a vengeance tonight. Utah has bounced back to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit loss at home. The Jazz have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after an upset loss to a Northwest Divisional rival — and they have covered the point spread in 41 of their last 64 games after an upset loss by double digits as a home favorite. Utah has suffered two straight upset losses after losing by a 107-106 score laying 8 points as Memphis in their previous game on Thursday. The Jazz have failed to cover the point spread in three straight games as well as six of their last eight contests but they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Additionally, Utah has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games with the Total set at 220 or higher. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset win over a divisional rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after an upset win over a Northwest Divisional rival where they were an underdog getting at least 6 points. But now the Timberwolves return home where they are just 3-4 this season while being outscored by -6.1 PPG. Minnesota is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games on their home court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. The T-Wolves have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set at 220 or higher. This team is still undermanned with Andrew Wiggins questionable for tonight will an illness that has kept him out for the last three games. Minnesota is also just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning percentage overall.

FINAL TAKE: Utah is getting healthier with Dante Exum having played his first game of the season on Monday. The Jazz have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against the Timberwolves in Minnesota. And in their last 8 opportunities to avenge an upset loss as a home favorite laying at least 7 points, Utah has covered the point spread 5 times. 25* NBA Northwest Division Game of the Month with the Utah Jazz (517) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (525) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (524). THE SITUATION: Boston (9-1) has won nine straight games with their 140-133 win over Washington on Wednesday as a 7.5-point favorite. Golden State (2-10) has lost five straight contests with their 120-94 on Wednesday as an 8.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Boston will be without Gordon Hayward for several weeks with his hand injury — but this team did not miss a beat in their victory on Wednesday. The Celtics shot 51% from the field with seven players scoring in double-digits. But head coach Brad Stevens will want his team to tighten up on defense after allowing the Wizards to make 52.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of their season. Boston should play well tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when they have won at least nine in a row. The Celtics have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread. Boston goes back on the road where they are 4-1 with an average winning margin of +11.2 PPG. The Celtics are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 road games with the Total set in the 220 to 229.5 point range. Golden State is reeling with the injury to Stephen Curry leaving the active roster to Draymond Green, DeAngelo Russell and then a handful of unestablished younger players including two mini-alumni teams from Michigan and Villanova with Jordan Poole and Glen Robinson III along with Omari Spellman and Eric Paschall. Head coach Steve Kerr is teaching these younger players on the fly with this biggest growing pains being on defense where they are allowing their last five opponents to make 49.7% of their shots. The Warriors are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a double-digit loss. They have surrendered at least 118 points in six straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 13 home games after allowing at least 105 points in at least four straight games. As it is, Golden State is just 15-36-1 ATS in their last 52 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They are just 1-5 at home this season with an average losing margin of -9.6 PPG due to their porous defense that is allowing their guests to score 120.3 PPG on 48.3% shooting. The Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 home games with the Total set in the 220 to 229.5 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Boston is playing well on both ends of the court with them making 49.8% of their shots over their last five games while limiting their opponents to just 42.7% shooting despite their subpar effort on Wednesday against the Wizards. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Game of the Month with the Boston Celtics (525) minus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (524). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Indiana Pacers (502) minus the points versus the Detroit Pistons (501). THE SITUATION: Indiana (4-4) has won four of their last five games with their 121-106 win over Washington on Wednesday as a 3-point favorite. Detroit (4-5) has won two of their last three games with their 122-102 win over the New York Knicks on Wednesday as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACERS MINUS THE POINTS: Indiana is dealing with a host of injuries right now with Victor Oladipo out indefinitely with a knee injury and Jeremy Lamb out with an ankle injury. Big man Myles Turner has been upgraded to questionable with his ankle issue so perhaps he can play tonight. But the Pacers still have Malcolm Brogdon who had 13 assists in Wednesday’s victory to lead this undermanned team. And Domantas Sabonis added 13 points with 17 rebounds and 7 assists as a jack-of-all-trades contributor for this well-coached and balanced team under Nate McMillan. Indiana is now 3-1 at home where they have held their visitors to just 42.2% shooting from the field. The Pacers have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 48 home games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range. Indiana has also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 home games against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Furthermore, the Pacers have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points — and they have also covered the point spread in 33 of their last 51 games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. Detroit is also dealing with a plethora of injuries. Both point guards Derrick Rose and Reggie Jackson are out with hamstring and back injuries respectively. Blake Griffin is doubtful with a hamstring issue. These are not encouraging developments for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win. The Pistons have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when playing with one day of rest. Now Detroit goes back on the road where they are just 1-3 this season while allowing their home hosts to shoot 48.7% from the field. The Pistons have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Detroit has also only covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against Central Division foes.

FINAL TAKE: This is already the third meeting between these two teams with Detroit following up a 119-110 upset win at Indiana as a 7-point underdog back on October 23rd with a 96-94 win at home as a 1.5-point underdog on October 28th. The Pacers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when avenging a narrow loss by 3 points or less to their opponent — and they have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 44 games when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NBA Central Division Game of the Month with the Indiana Pacers (502) minus the points versus the Detroit Pistons (501). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (575) and the Brooklyn Nets (576). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (0-0) comes off a 36-46 campaign last year which was 11th best in the Western Conference. Brooklyn (0-0) made the playoffs last season with a 42-40 before losing the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs to Philadelphia.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Timberwolves needed to improve their defense after allowing 112.9 PPG last season. Getting forward Robert Covington back for an entire season will certainly help their interior defensive. The defensive stalwart came over in last year’s blockbuster Jimmy Butler deal but he missed 42 games last season with injuries. Minnesota also added an outstanding defensive player in guard Jarrett Culver with the sixth pick in the NBA draft after he was a key defensive cog for the stingy Texas Tech teams over the last two years. The T-Wolves are led by Karl-Anthony Towns who averaged 24.4 PPG but they need Andrew Wiggins or someone else to step up to be a reliable second scoring option. Minnesota closed out last season with 6 straight Unders when playing on the road. The Timberwolves have also played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams from the Atlantic Division. Brooklyn significantly upgraded their roster in the offseason with the additions of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving but they will have to wait until the 2020-21 season before seeing Durant make his debut given his torn ACL in the NBA Finals last June. The Nets did lose some scoring punch with the loss of DeAngelo Russell who joined Golden State in the offseason. Brooklyn also added an outstanding rim protector in center DeAndre Jordan. The Nets concluded their preseason schedule last Friday against Toronto — and they played 5 of their last 7 regular season games Under the Total when playing with at least three days of rest. Brooklyn has also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total at home. And in their last 5 games played in the Barclays Center between these two teams, the game finished Under the Total 4 times.

FINAL TAKE: I am willing to upgrade this play to a 25* ranking because the team trends that remain relevant from last season are supported by an empirical situational angle specific to the opening games of the NBA regular season. In games between non-conference opponents who ended last season with a 40 to 49% winning percentage, these games finished Under the Total in 55 of these last 77 situations. 25* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (575) and the Brooklyn Nets (576). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:07 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Toronto Raptors (531) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (532). THE SITUATION: Golden State (71-32) stayed alive on Monday in Game Five of the NBA Finals by pulling off a 106-105 win over the Raptors. The Warriors return home to the Oracle Center for one final game before they move to their new arena next season. Toronto (73-32) hopes to close out this series and hoist the NBA Championship trophy in this game.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAPTORS PLUS THE POINTS: Golden State was galvanized with the news that Kevin Durant would plan on taking the court again after missing most of the postseason with a leg injury. Bettors respond by shoveling money on the Warriors with the line dropping from Toronto laying 2 to 3 points to Golden State closing as a 1-point favorite in many spots with the expectation that Durant would change the dynamic of that game. Durant’s presence certainly jumpstarted the team as the two-time defending champions scored 34 points in the first quarter. But then Durant re-injured his leg in what looks to be a nasty Achilles tear that will sideline him well into next season. The Warriors were +6 with Durant on the court in his 12 minutes — so his presence made a big difference. And the team showed resiliency immediately after his injury with DeMarcus Cousins seesawing from a possible Coaches Decision: Did Not Play game to scoring 14 points on 6 of 8 shooting to help Golden State take a 14-point lead. But as the game moved on, it became clear that this Warriors team simply does not have enough ballers to hang with the depth of this Raptors team. Head coach Steve Kerr only has four players he can rely on to play significant minutes with one of those players in Andre Iguodala in a huge shooting slump having made only 13 of his 36 shots (36.1%) including just 5 of 20 (25%) from behind the arc. Supporting cast players like Cousins or Jordan Bell offer offensive capabilities for this team but at the expense of being liabilities on the defensive end of the court. Kerr can turn to other players like Alfonzo McKinnie or the injured Kevon Looney for better defensive play but they do not offer much of any threat on offense. Looney reinjured his broken clavicle on Monday and while he claims he will play on Thursday, that dude can’t move his right arm over his shoulder. Shaun Livingston is a shell of the player he has been with this team. Draymond Green has seen his scoring skills decline. There is a reason why the Raptors have successfully deployed box-and-one and triangle-and-two junk defenses in this series. The steady deterioration of this team’s depth gave them simply not enough wiggle room if (and when) they were ever to be hit by the injury bug. And yet some late 3-pointers (and some shaky play by the Raptors) allowed the champs to survive for another day. Unfortunately for this Warriors team, that victory might re-instill the complacency that has dogged this team all season. They are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a victory by 3 points or less. The complacency of this team is best embodied by their seeming need to be too loose with the basketball. Even with their season on the line, they committed another 16 turnovers on Monday. And now Golden State returns to the Oracle Center where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 home games when not playing more than their fourth game in ten days. Additionally, Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games with the Total set in the 210 to 219.5 point range — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in five of their last seven home games with the Over/Under number in that range. The Warriors have been unreliable favorites who have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 41 points when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points. Toronto blew an opportunity to win their first championship — and it sure looked like they were on their way to closing out this NBA campaign with Kawhi Leonard looking like a vintage Michael Jordan through most of the 4th quarter. But teams need to experience disappointment when dethroning champions — and I expect the Raptors to learn from that loss. With a game in hand back home in Toronto for a potential seventh game, don’t be surprised if the Toronto takes advantage of their proverbial free roll on Thursday by playing aggressive and loose. This will be a confident group that is 7-1-1 in their last 9 games against playoff competition — and they have covered then point spread in 4 straight games at Golden State after pulling upsets in both Game Three and Game Four of this series. The 46.3% shooting percentage that the Warriors enjoyed was tied for the highest mark that the Raptors have allowed in their last nine games. Kevin Lowry, Pascal Siakam, and Danny Green should make more than the one basket they converted of their 14 shots from behind the arc in Game Six. And I certainly expect Toronto to reduce their turnover rate after they coughed the ball up 13 times on Monday with this likely a major bone of contention for head coach Nick Nurse. The Raptors have been outstanding underdogs who have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 32 games when getting 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 road games when getting no more than 6 points.

FINAL TAKE: Toronto’s formula of using Golden State’s aggressiveness against them by forcing additional scoring opportunities from turnovers and getting to the charity stripe more often has more than neutralized a Warriors team that has become too dependent on 3-point shooting. Golden State made 20 of 42 shots from behind the arc for a sizzling 47.6% mark — and yet they only won by 1 point on Monday! I just don’t think the Warriors can shoot that well from 3-point land again (with no Durant this time) — the Raptors have been successful in pushing Stephan Curry and Klay Thompson’s open looks a few feet further back from behind the stripe. The underdog is now 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. I think Toronto wins this game — but take the points for the very valuable insurance in what could be another close game. 25* NBA Game of the Year with the Toronto Raptors (531) plus the points versus the Golden State Warriors (532). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:07 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (529) and the Toronto Raptors (530). THE SITUATION: Toronto (73-31) took a commanding 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals on Friday with their 105-92 upset victory over the Warriors. The Raptors host Game Five as they look to lift the NBA championship trophy with Golden State (70-32) looking to extend this series to a sixth game back home in the Oracle Center.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Raptors have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. And while Toronto has covered the point spread in seven of their last eight games, they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight contests. The Raptors have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. Toronto’s outstanding defense has been their calling card this postseason. They have held their playoff opponents to just 42.0% shooting from the field — and they have limited their last five opponents to just 42.8% shooting. The Raptors won Game Four despite making just 41.9% of their shots from the field in a shooting effort that I expected to see from them in Game Three where instead they shot a surprising 52.4% from the field. Now with the opportunity to close out this series and win the championship on their home court, I expect this Toronto team to be a bit nervy with their shooting. The Raptors have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when leading in a playoff series — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total in playoff games where they have the opportunity to close out the series. Golden State has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total when trailing in a playoff series — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when facing elimination in the playoffs. The Warriors should play tough on the defensive end of the court with their season on the line. This is a team that usually plays better on defense when on the road — they have held their home hosts to just 43.8% shooting this season which is a few notches below the 44.4% opponent’s field goal percentage for the year overall. Golden State has seen the Under go 33-16-2 in their last 51 games after a straight-up loss. And while the Warriors suffered upset losses in their last two games at home as a favorite in this series, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing two in a row— and they have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after suffering two straight upsets in a row. The team may decide to play Kevin Durant with it being an elimination game. While they certainly need his offensive skills after making only 44.2% of their shots over their last five games, it remains a question how effective he will be if not at 100% and rusty from all the time he has been away from the court. And don’t underestimate Durant’s importance on the defensive end of the court as he offers the Warriors a big body to potentially slow down Kawhi Leonard. If Durant plays, the Golden State offense tends to slow down in pace as well with him looking to generate one-on-one scoring chances. The other big update for this Warriors team was the surprise return of Kevon Looney who had previously been declared out for the remainder of this playoff series by the team. One of the reasons we had the Over in Game Four was that Looney’s absence likely ensured more playing time for Boogie Cousins who is helpful on offense but a liability on defense. Looney’s ability to take the court helps the Golden State defense while limiting their offensive capabilities in lieu of Cousins. Regardless of whether or not Durant plays, this Warriors team has played 6 of their last 9 road games Under the Total as a road dog getting no more than 6 points.

FINAL TAKE: Golden State has played 6 of their last 9 games when playing with revenge from two straight upset losses to their opponent. 25* NBA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (529) and the Toronto Raptors (530). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:07 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (525) and the Golden State Warriors (526). THE SITUATION: Golden State (70-30) evened this series at 1-1 on Sunday with their 109-104 upset win at Toronto (71-31). The Warriors return home to the Oracle Center to host the third and fourth games of this series.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Golden State vastly improved their efficiency in their half-court offense after scoring just 0.84 Points-Per-Possession in the half court in Game One of this series. The Warriors improved that mark to a 1.068 PPP rate in the half court in Game Two which was the most efficient mark that the Raptors have allowed in these playoffs. Regression is likely for this Golden State team — especially with all the injuries they are dealing with tonight. Klay Thompson claims that he will play tonight — but head coach Steve Kerr will not play him if he is experiencing pain with the pulled hamstring he suffered on Sunday. While Thompson’s ability to launch jump shots should not be affected by this injury, his movement will be — so he may have difficulty getting open if and when he does play tonight. Kevin Durant is still not ready to play in this series — and the Warriors lost Kevon Looney to a season-ending cartilage fracture injury on Sunday. DeMarcus Cousins played surprisingly well in Game Two but he is still not at 100% as he recovers from his torn quad — and he is still working back into game shape after missing over a month of play. Even Andre Iguodala is not at 100% as he is dealing with a sprained calf of his own. Golden State’s most reliable offensive threat remains Stephen Curry — but when the Raptors deployed the gimmick box-and-one defense in the late moments of the fourth quarter, the Warriors’ offense stalled to a near halt. While the Warriors will adjust to that gimmick defense, the reason why it worked is that Golden State simply lacks reliable scoring threats with all these injuries they have endured. Bettors who had the closing over/under number of 212.5 still cashed their Over tickets that looked like locks midway through the final quarter even with the ugly scoring drought suffered by both teams — and the Warriors have played 15 of their last 22 home games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Golden State has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after pulling off an upset victory. Now the Warriors finally return to the Oracle Center for the first time since May 16th after playing their last four games on the road. Golden State has played 28 of their last 39 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight games on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing their last four games on the road. Furthermore, the Warriors have played 13 of their last 19 games at home Under the Total — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Toronto should play better on the defensive end of the court after allowing the Warriors to make 46.3% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six games. The Raptors have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss. Toronto has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Raptors also experienced problems on the offensive end of the court with them shooting just 37.2% of their shots from the field. Kawhi Leonard has seen his offensive productivity steadily decline as the postseason moves on. Leonard has been nursing a leg injury of his own and he seems to be tiring. He only had seven isolation plays on offense with a mere four post-up plays with his energy appearing to be limited. Now Toronto goes on the road where the Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games. The Raptors have also covered the point spread in five of shier last six games — and they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Additionally, the Raptors have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest.

FINAL TAKE: Golden State has played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Under the Total when the series is tied. Toronto has played 6 of their last 8 playoff games Under the Total when the series is tied. Expect a lower scoring game tonight. 25* NBA Wednesday Night O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the game between the Toronto Raptors (525) and the Golden State Warriors (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.