At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, February 11th, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (102) and the San Francisco 49ers (101) in the Super Bowl. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (14-6) is on a five-game winning streak after their 17-10 upset victory at Baltimore as a 4.5-point upset on January 28th. San Francisco (14-5) has won two games in a row as well as nine of their last 11 contests after their 34-31 win against Detroit as a 7.5-point favorite on January 28th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs found themselves in a defensive struggle in the AFC Championship Game on the road against the Ravens — and a similar game script appears likely in the Super Bowl. The Kansas City offense only generated 319 yards despite being on the field for 37:30 minutes of that game. They generated only 4.49 Yards-Per-Play but were happy to control the time of possession by running 71 offensive plays including 32 rushing attempts. The Chiefs' lack of a vertical passing attack helped the Ravens contain big plays. Marques Valdes-Scantling was the deep threat in their previous game against Buffalo but he does not demand double teams.  They used rookie Rashee Rice on some deep throws against Baltimore — but they did not connect and he is more adept as a possession receiver. However, when in the past the lack of explosive plays would frustrate quarterback Patrick Mahomes, he now seems quite comfortable grinding out first downs while not forcing the action. They have scored 20 points or less ten times this season. It helps Mahomes that he now has confidence in the Kansas City defense which is the best unit in his tenure in the NFL. The Chiefs are holding their opponents to just 294.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in just 16.8 Points-Per-Game. They have allowed more than 21 points only twice all season. Kansas City has played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after winning four or more games in a row. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is one of the best in the business — and now he has two weeks to prepare for Kyle Shanahan’s offense and quarterback Brock Purdy’s tendencies. The Chiefs have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when given two weeks of rest and preparation. The 49ers have an explosive offense that generates 396.4 total YPG and 28.9 PPG — but Kansas City has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams who score 24 or more PPG and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams who average 350 or more YPG. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. For San Francisco, there are signs that their offense is slowing down a bit. They had not scored more than 27 points in four straight games before the NFC Championship Game. They gained 413 total yards against the suspect Lions' defense — but 51 of those yards came from that lucky tipped ball from Purdy’s overthrown pass that somehow landed in the hands of wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. Take away that play — and Jahmyr Gibbs' fumble on the next series that set the Niners up for a short touchdown drive — and the 49ers only score 17 points from 361 total yards. But don’t sleep on this 49ers defense that has not allowed more than 21 points in eight of their last 11 games. San Francisco only gives up 316.2 YPG when playing away from home resulting in 16.1 PPG. The 49ers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. They have also played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Kansas City has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (101) and the Kansas City Chiefs (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

BONUS SUPER BOWL PROPS REPORT:

I used the prop bets at DraftKings as a guide. I know that not everyone will have accounts with that book so please deploy the logic behind each bet to the appropriate and available prop bet at the book you are using.

BEST BET: Brandon Aiyuk Under 60.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings).

Our Best Bet for Super Bowl props is Brandon Aiyuk’s receiving yardage for the game finishing Under the Total (-115 at DraftKings). Aiyuk is likely to be the primary defensive assignment for Kansas City cornerback L’Jarius Sneed who is one of the best in the business. Aiyuk only has 100 receiving yards in his two playoff games this season — although he did have 68 receiving yards against Detroit in the NFC Championship Game. The more glaring number is that he was only targeted by Brock Purdy three times in each game — and that is not a great recipe to get 61 or more receiving yards. In his 18 games played this season, this Under wins nine times. Perhaps more importantly, this Under hits in six of Aiyuk’s nine games played away from Levi’s Stadium. In general, I am expecting a heavy run script from 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan. The Chiefs' run defense is their bigger vulnerability and Shanahan has been living with the criticism of too quickly abandoning the run not only in the 2021 Super Bowl when he was the offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons but also in their earlier loss this season to Baltimore. Furthermore, while Shanahan needs big plays, he tends to find solutions from pass plays — but I think “now or never” aspect of the Super Bowl means more of his trick plays using gadget players like Kyle Jusszczyk, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffery (his favorite player). Additionally, I suspect that Shanahan will be very sensitive about putting Purdy in a position to succeed in this game — and that means safer play calls, especially early in the game. Aiyuk’s primary role in this game may be as a decoy and as the magnet that draws Sneed’s attention away from where Shanahan wants the ball to go.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Patrick Mahomes Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+130 at DraftKings).

Our Top Overlay Bet that offers the most value relative to the odds is on Patrick Mahomes to throw Under 1.5 touchdown passes. Mahomes has thrown less than two touchdown passes nine times this season — including two of his three playoff games. Furthermore, Mahomes has thrown less than two touchdown passes in four of his last five games as well as six of his last eight contests. The focus of the offense has shifted from explosive plays when they had Tyreek Hill to now their running game behind Isaiah Pacheco. Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice remain threats in the passing game — but the Niners will focus on stopping them. The lack of a great third-receiving option will help us win this prop. Getting this prop at plus money (+130) presents great value.

BONUS LONG SHOT BETS:

(1) Noah Gray anytime touchdown (+7000 at DraftKings). This one is worth a lottery ticket flyer. The lack of a third Chiefs’ receiving option does open up space for players like Gray to step up — and head coach Andy Reid loves to dial up trick plays to get guys like him involved (as he did Kadarius Toney in last year’s Super Bowl). Kansas City is playing more 12 and 13 personnel sets with two or three tight ends on the field. Gray is the second tight end on the depth chart — and he has played 58.5% of the offensive snaps in the playoffs. He has seen three or more targets in 55% of his games this season. He has two targets in the Red Zone in these playoffs. And most importantly, Mahomes trusts him — he has only one drop in his 41 targets this season.

(2) Isaiah Pacheco to win Super Bowl Most Valuable Player (+2500 at DraftKings). Pacheco has averaged 83 rushing Yards-Per-Game in his last eight games. In his last six games, he has averaged 21.8 touches per game and 98.8 total Yards-Per-Game. He is being used more in the passing game with 21 targets and 20 receptions in his last six contests as well. Now he faces a San Francisco defense that surrendered 108 rushing yards to Green Bay’s Aaron Jones, 93 rushing yards to Detroit’s David Montgomery, and 45 rushing yards to the Lions’ Jahmyr Gibbs in their last two games. The Niners are surrendering 159.0 rushing YPG in the playoffs. I expect Pacheco to feature prominently in the Chiefs’ game plan. If Kansas City wins the game and Mahomes’ passing numbers are only modest, then Pacheco becomes a prime candidate to win MVP — especially if he scores a touchdown.

Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (321) and the San Francisco 49ers (322) in the NFC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Detroit (14-5) won for the fifth time in their last six games with their 31-23 victory against Tampa Bay as a 6-point favorite on Sunday. San Francisco (13-5) has won two of their last three games after their 24-21 win against Green Bay as a 10.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Lions have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Detroit has not allowed more than 89 rushing yards in six straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two or more games in a row. But three of those six opponents did not rush the ball more than 17 times since they were focused on passing against a suspect defensive secondary. The Lions have given up 319 passing yards in five straight games — and their last five opponents have generated 346.2 passing YPG against them. Detroit has given up at least 384 yards of offense in five straight games — and they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after giving up 375 or more yards in two or more games in a row. Now after playing their last three games at home, they go back on the road having played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing two or more games in a row at home. The Lions have averaged 27.2 Points-Per-Game in their last five games away from home — and center Frank Ragnow will play in this game despite dealing with several injuries. San Francisco wide receiver Deebo Samuel will also take the field in this game. He got injured early in that game against the Packers — and his absence on the field disrupts the San Francisco offense as the primary offset to Christian McCaffrey to force dilemmas for opposing defenses. Even if Samuel is not 100% with his shoulder injury (although there is no structural damage), his presence demands attention from the defense and allows Shanahan to dial up his full assortment of formations that utilize his four “jokers” players of tight end George Kittle, fullback Kyle Juszczyk along with McCaffrey and Samuel who can line up anywhere on the field. Quarterback Brock Purdy struggled early in the game last week as he adjusted to the rain (he tried wearing a glove) — but he did everything necessary to orchestrate the game-winning drive late. The 49ers have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco generated 416.6 total Yards-Per-Game when playing at home resulting in 26.9 Points-Per-Game — and they have played 10 of their last 11 home games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to points. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (321) and the San Francisco 49ers (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (319) and the Baltimore Ravens (320) in the AFC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (13-6) won their fourth game in a row with their 27-24 upset victory at Buffalo as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Baltimore (14-4) won for the seventh time in their last eight games in a 34-10 victory against Houston as a 10-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs only had the ball for 22:57 minutes on Sunday — but their offense was as explosive as it has been all season as they generated 7.68 Yards-Per-Play and gained 361 total yards to outscore the Bills (and it should have been even more points if not for Mecole Hardman’s fumble in the end zone touchback in the second half. The defending Super Bowl champions have experimented for much of the year with their revamped wide receiver corps — and this group has been plagued by drops since the opening week of the season since playing Detroit on that opening Thursday Night game. But head coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes have settled on their group. Rookie Rashee Rice has emerged as the number one wideout option to complement tight end Travis Kelce. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a deep threat third option. Reid has made an addition by subtraction by simply removing the human drop machine that has been Kadarius Toney from the mix all together — he is banished to the injured list. Isiah Pacheco is being leaned on even more — in his last five games excluding the Week 17 game against Las Vegas where starters were rested, he has averaged 20.4 touches per game and 106.8 total Yards-Per-Game. He is being used more in the passing game with 20 targets and 19 receptions in his last four contests. The play of the two new starting tackles on the offensive line has been a disappointment all season — but Mahomes has learned what free-agent signees Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor can and cannot do and has adapted. Reid was keeping Kelce in to block often this season to his frustration — but the blocking has been better lately allowing the future Hall of Fame to run more pass routes. Kansas City has scored 25 or more points in three of the four games during their current winning streak. And while not having All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney for this game due to an injury is a big loss, they slide in the veteran backup Nick Allegretti who has plenty of experience in his five years with the team including starting in the 2021 Super Bowl. The Chiefs have played 7 of their last 19 games Over the Total after playing on the road in a game where both teams scored 24 or more points. And while Kansas City has covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. Mahomes has only been an underdog 11 times as the Chiefs’ starting quarterback — and he has led his team to 34.6 PPG in those contests with the final score finishing Over the Total 8 times by an average of +13.9 points. Kansas City has played 17 of their last 26 road games Over the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Baltimore has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win by 14 or more points — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point-spread win. The Ravens have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. Baltimore earned the right to host this game by posting the best record in the AFC — and they have generated 387.4 total Yards-Per-Game at home resulting in 32.1 PPG. Tight end Mark Andrews will play in this game after being activated from the injured list. Lamar Jackson is enjoying a Most Valuable Player season — in his last four games against teams who reached the plays this year, he has 12 touchdown passes to just one interception with another 245 rushing yards on 35 carries including two more touchdowns.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these defenses are great — but both can be run on. Baltimore ranks 23rd in the league by allowing 4.4 Yards-Per-Carry — and Kansas City ranks 25th in the NFL by allowing 4.5 YPC. The Chiefs have allowed 20 or more points nine times — and the Ravens have allowed 19 or more points eight times. If both teams reach those point thresholds, the game script should ensure we reach our Over. Kansas City has played 13 of their 16 games in the Reid era Over the Total when they are an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying up to seven points. Finally, there is a 70% chance of rain for this game — and that helps both offenses since it slows down pass rushers in pursuit and helps mobile quarterbacks. 25* National Football League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (319) and the Baltimore Ravens (320). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (317) and the Buffalo Bills (318). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (12-6) has won three games in a row after their 26-7 victory against Miami as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday. Buffalo (12-6) has won six games in a row after their 31-17 victory against Pittsburgh as a 10-point favorite last Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Buffalo raced out to a 21-7 halftime lead against the Steelers last week — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after holding a halftime lead of 14 or more points in their last contest. The Bills have also played 30 of their last 43 home games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Buffalo has held their last two opponents to just 14 and 17 points — but they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. Injuries are beginning to pile up on the defensive side of the ball for the Bills. Cornerback Christian Bedford and safety Taylor Rapp are both out from a secondary that is already without cornerback Tre’Davious White from his season-ending torn ACL back early in the season. Linebacker Baylen Spector is out as well — and Terrell Bernard is questionable with an ankle injury that may limit his effectiveness tonight. The Bernard situation is critical since he had been playing well in place of All-Pro Matt Milano who suffered a season-ending leg injury early in the season as well. The depth on defense is getting very thin for Buffalo — but their offense is clicking. Running back James Cook has 139 touches in his last seven games while averaging 5 yards per touch. Quarterback Josh Allen has added 16 touchdowns with his legs — and his willingness to take off and run adds an extra dimension to the explosiveness of their offense as evidenced by his 52-yard touchdown run last week. The Bills are generating 372.2 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 29.7 Points-Per-Game at home. Buffalo has played 7 of their last 11 home games Over the Total when favored by up to seven points. Kansas City has played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a double-digit win at home — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than nine points in their last game. And while the Chiefs have held their last two opponents to seven and six points in the first half of their last two games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than seven points in the first half in two straight contests. Furthermore, Kansas City has played four straight Unders — but they have then played 23 of their last 33 road games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. The Chiefs' offense will have a little extra juice now in the postseason since Patrick Mahomes will be more willing to run for first downs — he ran for 41 yards last week against the Dolphins. But the defense will not be at full strength with nose tackle Derrick Nnadi out with a tricep injury and linebacker William Gay questionable with a neck issue. Kansas City goes back on the road where they have played 16 of their last 25 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total with the Total set from 42.5 to 49.5.

FINAL TAKE: The Bills have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in the playoffs. 25* NFL Divisional Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (317) and the Buffalo Bills (318). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (303) and the San Francisco 49ers (304). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (10-8) has won four games in a row after their 48-32 upset win at Dallas as a 7-point underdog last Sunday. San Francisco (12-5) has lost two of their last three contests after their 21-20 upset loss to the Los Angeles Rams as a 5.5-point favorite back on January 7th.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers' offense has blossomed in the second half of the season with the light having turned on for Jordan Love and his understanding of head coach Matt LaFleur’s offense. Love was forcing the ball earlier in the season — but perhaps the midseason injury to wide receiver Christian Watson was a blessing in disguise since it helped coax him to rely on simply feeding the ball to the open receiver. With rookies Jaylen Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Luke Musgrave, and Tucker Kraft along with second-year pros Romeo Doubs and Watson, the Packers have one of the best groups of wide receivers and tight ends in the league. Love has thrown 21 touchdown passes with only one interception in his last nine games. The play-action passing attack has been devastating — Green Bay leads the NFL in total offense and third down offense in the last month. They have scored 32.7 Points-Per-Game in their last three games while generating 439.0 total Yards-Per-Game with the offense gaining at least 415 yards in each contest. Credit goes to LaFleur who finally is seeing the true vision of his offense unleashed after having to make compromise after compromise previously with Aaron Rodgers as his quarterback. The Packers have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 straight Overs after pulling off an upset win. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least 35 points — and they have played 6 straight Overs after averaging at least 375 YPG in their last three games. They stay on the road where they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 straight Overs on the road against fellow NFC rivals. They have also played 10 of their last 12 road games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Green Bay should be able to move the ball against this 49ers defense that has some weaknesses. The Niners' pass defense is not nearly as good since the season-ending injury to safety Talanga Hufanga in mid-November. San Francisco ranks 21st in the NFL by allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 66% of their passes — and they are just middle of the pack ranking 13th in the league by giving up 214.2 passing YPG. In a four-game stretch from December 3rd through December 25th, the 49ers allowed 246 passing YPG with opponents exposing their pass defense. Teams can also run on the Niners — they rank 14th in the league by allowing opposing rushers to average 4.1 Yards-Per-Carry. But the Packers are vulnerable on defense as well. They rank 28th in the league by giving up 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry. The Green Bay secondary is also vulnerable— Dak Prescott passed for 387 yards against them last week leading Dallas to a whopping 510 total yards in a losing effort. The Packers are surrendering 364.5 total YPG when playing on the road — and here comes this explosive 49ers offense that scores 28.9 PPG and generates 424.1 YPG when playing at home. San Francisco is healthy, rested, and ready for this game on offense — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. They have also played 5 of their 8 games at home this season Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5-9.5 points. The Packers generate 5.8 Yards-Per-Play — and the Niners have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams averaging 5.65 or more YPP. And in Green Bay’s last 37 road games against teams who allow their opponents to complete 64% or more of their passes, they have played 25 of these games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE:  I don’t think these conditions warrant getting off the Over (nor taking the Under) — and the oddsmakers have not adjusted the line so I remain comfortable with the Over. The Packers have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total in the second half of the season — and the 49ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* NFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (303) and the San Francisco 49ers (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (151) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (11-6) limps into the postseason having lost two games in a row and five of their last six contests after a 27-10 upset loss in New York against the Giants as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Tampa Bay (9-8) has won five of their last six games after their 9-0 win at Carolina as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles managed only 299 yards last week in their loss to the Giants. Quarterback Jalen Hurts is not 100% with a finger injury — and he will be without wide receiver A.J. Brown who is out with a knee injury. With running back D’Andre Swift returning to action tonight after he was out with an injury — look for the Eagles to lean heavily on him and their rushing attack to keep their defense off the field. Philadelphia has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 25 of their last 37 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points to an NFC East rival. The Eagles' defense has been a civ lately after giving up at least 25 points in three straight games. Philadelphia has played 34 of their last 53 games Under the Total after allowing 25 or more points in two or more games in a row including four of those last five circumstances. After giving up 449 yards to Arizona two weeks ago, they surrendered 415 total yards last week against the Giants — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 375 or more yards in two or more games in a row. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more yards in their last game. On the road, the Philly defense has played better as they have held their home hosts to 329.2 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 21.4 Points-Per-Game. But the Eagles are scoring only 20.7 PPG on the road. Philadelphia has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. They have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Tampa Bay has played 38 of their last 59 games Under the Total after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than three points in the first half in their last game. The Buccaneers have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. They return home where they are generating 317.1 total YPG resulting in 17.6 PPG — but they are holding their guests to just 324.4 total YPG and 17.1 PPG. Tampa Bay has played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-45 point range. They have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, the Buccaneers have played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and the Eagles have played 5 straight Unders in January. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (151) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (153) and the Buffalo Bills (154). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (10-7) has won three games in a row after their 17-10 win at Baltimore as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Buffalo (11-6) has won five games in a row after their 21-14 victory at Miami as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The weather is much better in Buffalo this afternoon than it was 24 hours ago — but the cold weather will still play a role in this game. Temperatures will be in the 16-18 degree range with winds up to 15 miles per hour. These are not ideal conditions for the passing game — and that will impact the vertical passing game that has helped Mason Rudolph have success. He completed 18 of 20 passes for 152 yards in the victory against the Ravens. With passing and catching the ball more difficult, the Bills can focus on stopping the Steelers' ground game. While Pittsburgh has averaged 26 Points-Per-Game with Rudolph as their starting quarterback, this remains a team that is generating only 312.6 total Yards-Per-Game on the road resulting in 17.4 PPG away from home. The Steelers have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win on the road. They have played 15 of their last 20 games on the road Under the Total after a win against an AFC North rival. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. And in their last 8 games after a point spread win, Pittsburgh has played 7 of these games Under the Total. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total. Buffalo has evolved into a run-first team that wants to control time of possession to slow the game down. They had the ball for 38:07 minutes last week while gaining 26 first downs against the Dolphins last Sunday night. The Bills have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where they held the ball for at least 34 minutes and at least 24 first downs. Josh Allen completed 30 of his 38 passes for 359 yards in that game — and Buffalo has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game where they gained 300 or more passing yards. And while they averaged 6.39 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after generating 6.0 or more YPP in their last game. They return home where they are holding their guests to just 14.8 PPG and 274.5 total YPG. The Bills have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 7 of their last 10  home games Under the Total when laying 7.5 to 14 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against AFC rivals — and they have played 7 straight Unders against teams winning 60-75% of their games. 25* AFC Wild Card Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (153) and the Buffalo Bills (154). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (149) and the Detroit Lions (150). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (10-7) has won four straight games as well as six of their last seven after their 21-20 upset win at San Francisco as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday. Detroit (12-5) has won three of their last four games after their 30-20 win against Minnesota as a 4-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rams’ offense has emerged as one of the most dynamic in the league in the second half of the season — with the key ingredient being that unit finally being healthy and at full strength. Wide receiver Cooper Kipp missed the first five games due to injury — but that opened up space for rookie Puka Nacua to emerge as a potential Rookie of the Year candidate by catching 105 passes this season. The former BYU wideout is the real deal — and he remained a significant threat to opposing defenses even when Kupp returned to the field. Injuries at running back gave second-year pro Kyren Williams an opportunity of which he took full advantage. He rushed for 1144 yards on 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry. The former Notre Dame star has averaged 26 touches per game in his last four contests. Quarterback Matthew Stafford missed two games midseason as well — but the offense began to purr when all four of these players were healthy and together in the second half of the season. The Rams scored 32.7 Points-Per-Game in their last six games which Stafford started while scoring at least 26 points in each of those contests. Furthermore, Los Angeles scored 30 or more points in four of those games — and they scored at least 36 points in three of those contests. Stafford will be rested and ready after getting last week off with their playoff positioning locked in place. The Rams have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total straight Overs after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after winning two games in a row while playing 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total. They face a Lions team that has been much better at stopping the run after the return of defensive tackle Alim McNeill from injury. Detroit has held their last four opponents to just 62 rushing Yards-Per-Game with none of those four opponents rushing for more than 83 yards. I suspect the game script for the Rams will be to rely on Stafford’s arm to win this game — and he should have success against suspect Detroit pass defense that has allowed 352 passing YPG and 8.9 Yards-Per-Attempt in their last three games. The Lions have played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in three or more games in a row. They stay at home where they are generating 408.8 total YPG resulting in 30.5 PPG. Detroit has played 9 of their last 12 games at home Over the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games at home Over the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. And after suffering a bad knee injury last week, it looks like rookie tight end Sam LaPorta will be able to play tonight with the use of a brace.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams winning 60-75% of their games. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Year is with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (149) and the Detroit Lions (150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (147) and the Dallas Cowboys (148). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (9-8) has won three games in a row as well as six of their last eight contests with their 17-9 victory against Chicago as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Dallas (12-5) has won two games in a row as well as seven of their last nine games after their 38-10 victory at Washington as a 13.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Dallas dominated the Commanders last week to secure the second seed in the NFC playoffs — they generated 440 yards of offense. The Cowboys have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win by 21 or more points. They have also played 6 straight Overs at home after a double-digit victory. Dallas has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. They get to host this playoff game at AT&T Stadium where they are generating 425.8 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 37.4 Points-Per-Game when at home. The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 8 games at home Over the Total. Green Bay has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a win at home. The Packers' offense has found a rhythm themselves with Jordan Love’s continued development at quarterback. They have averaged 423.7 YPG in their last three games. Their offense has generated 432 and 470 yards in their last two games — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after gaining at least 375 yards in two straight games. The Packers have only given up 19 combined points in their last two games — but they have then played 37 of their last 54 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in two or more games in a row. They go back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total. And while Dallas averages only 0.9 turnovers per game, Green Bay has played 14 of their last 17 road games Over the Total against opponents who do not average more than one turnover per game. Unfortunately for Green Bay, their secondary has been hit hard by injuries. Safety Rudy Ford is on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. Cornerback Jaire Alexander is questionable with both a shoulder and an ankle — and if he is not at 100%, then he is vulnerable to getting burned by CeeDee Lamb since he is the team’s top cover man. As it is, the Packers' pass defense has been a vulnerability — they gave up 298 passing yards to Carolina and 353 passing yards to Tampa Bay last month.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record. 8* NFL Green Bay-Dallas Fox-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (147) and the Dallas Cowboys (148). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (143) and the Kansas City Chiefs (144). THE SITUATION: Miami (11-6) is on a two-game losing streak after their 21-14 loss at home as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Kansas City (11-6) enters the playoffs on a two-game winning streak after their 13-12 upset win as a 3-point underdog in Los Angeles against the Chargers last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dolphins did not score in the second half with their offense only generating 275 total yards last Sunday night. Now the weather conditions in Kansas City tonight are perhaps the worst nightmare for head coach Mike McDaniel for his offensive game plan. The temperatures will be below freezing level at kickoff with the wind chill making it feel like it is 30 degrees below zero (or worse). The winds will be high and relentless which will impact Tua Tagovailoa’s passing. McDaniel is optimistic that wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and running back Raheem Mostert can return to action tonight after missing the last two games — but even if they can make a go of it, their effectiveness remains a question especially in the freezing temperatures. The defense did have a bend-but-don’t-break mentality last week after holding the Bills to just 14 points from the offense — Buffalo scored one of their touchdowns on a 96-yard punt return. Miami did allow 473 total yards last week — but they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Dolphins have played 50 of their last 72 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams winning 60-75% of their games. Kansas City has played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row. The Chiefs’ outstanding defense that gives up only 269.9 YPG resulting in 16.8 PPG. Kansas City has played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. But the Chiefs are scoring only 21.8 PPG this season — with that number only rising by +1.2 PPG to 23.0 PPG when playing at home. The offense has struggled with unreliable play at wide receiver  — and the ice-cold conditions will not help resolve their case with the dropsies.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Chiefs’ 21-14 victory against the Dolphins as a 1-point favorite in a game where Miami only generated 292 total yards even with Mostert and Waddle with the offense at full strength. Kansas City only managed 267 total yards in that game as well after not scoring in the second half. Miami has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. 25* NFL Saturday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (143) and the Kansas City Chiefs (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total between the Washington Huskies (287) and the Michigan Wolverines (288) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Washington (14-0) joined them in this showdown with their 37-31 upset victory against Texas as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. Michigan (14-0) advanced to the National Championship Game with their 27-20 victory in overtime against Alabama as a 2-point favorite on Monday. This game is being played at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Huskies generated 532 yards of offense last week against a Longhorns team that allowed only 17.5 Points-Per-Game and 322.5 total Yards-Per-Game at the time. But the Washington defense gave up 490 yards against Texas and almost blew the game in some anxious late moments. Head coach Kalen DeBoer will play tonight’s game aggressively — and he will ride on the talent of his quarterback Michael Penix. The Huskies survived another shootout in their 34-31 victory against Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship Game — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning two games in a row by six points or less. Washington generated 7.6 Yards-Per-Play against the Longhorns — and they have played 3 of their 4 games Over the Total this season after averaging 6.75 or more YPP in their last game. One of the reasons why the Huskies offense is so successful is that they do not turn the ball over — they have not committed more than one turnover in six straight games. Washington has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after not committing more than one turnover in five or more games in a row. Michigan has played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total on the road after winning two or more games in a row — and they have played 19 of their last 25 road games Over the Total after winning seven or more games in a row. Their victory against Alabama last week came on the heels of their 26-0 victory against Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game as a 22-point favorite — and the Wolverines have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning and covering the point spread in their last two games as the favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan has played 16 of their last 20 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral field as the favorite — and Washington has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral field as an underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. 20* CFB Washington-Michigan ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total between the Washington Huskies (287) and the Michigan Wolverines (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing vUnder the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (455) and the Miami Dolphins (456). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (10-6) has won four games in a row with their 27-21 win against New England as a 14.5-point favorite on Sunday. Miami (11-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 56-19 loss at Baltimore as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bills have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win by six points or less. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in their last two games. Buffalo has played their last two games Over the Total — but they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing two or more Overs in a row. They go back on the road where their 24.3 Points-Per-Game scoring average is -2.3 PPG below their season average. The Bills have played 12 of their last 16 games — and they have played 8 straight road games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. They have also played 9 of their last 10 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Miami has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 35 or more points in their last contest. And while they gave up 491 yards of offense last week against the Ravens, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more yards in their last game. They return home where they have played 10 of their last 15 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. The Miami offense is undermanned tonight with both running back Raheem Mostert and wide receiver Jaylen Waddle not expecting to play. But the Dolphins' defense holds their guests to 285.8 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in only 16.9 PPG when they are playing at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Dolphins lost on the road to the Bills by a 48-20 score as a 2.5-point favorite on October 1st — and they have played 4 straight Unders when playing with revenge from a loss by 14 or more points to their opponent. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (455) and the Miami Dolphins (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (469) and the Indianapolis Colts (470). THE SITUATION: Houston (9-7) has won two of their last three games after their 26-3 victory against Tennessee as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Indianapolis (9-7) has won two of their last three games as well as six of their last eight after their 23-20 victory against Las Vegas as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Both teams need to win this game to make the playoffs (and with some help, the winner can win the AFC South). Houston dominated the Titans last week by outgaining them by +125 net yards. The Texans held Tennessee to just 187 yards of offense in the victory. While rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud gets most of the attention as the likely AFC Rookie of the Year, the play of head coach DeMeco Ryans’ defense is the reason why this team is in a position to potentially make the playoffs with a win in this game. Houston ranks third in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 88.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game. They rank second in the league in Rush Defense using the DVOA metrics of the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). Since Week Eight, the Texans rank third in the NFL in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. They have held their last three opponents to just 269.7 total Yards-Per-Game and they have not allowed more than 79 rushing yards in four straight contests. The Texans have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in four games in a row. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 or more points in their last game — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a win by 21 or more points. They go back on the road where they have played 11 of their last 16 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Indianapolis has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Colts stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 45.5-49 point range. They have also played 26 of their last 39 home games Under the Total against opponents who are not giving up more than 90 rushing Yards-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: Houston will be looking to avenge their 31-20 upset loss at home to Indianapolis as a 1-point favorite on September 17th — and they have 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with revenge on their mind. The Texans have also played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total against AFC South rivals. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (469) and the Indianapolis Colts (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (281) and the Washington Huskies (282) in the Sugar Bowl and Semifinals of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Texas (12-1) has won seven games in a row after their 49-21 victory against Oklahoma State as a 14.5-point favorite in the Big 12 Championship Game on December 2nd. Washington (13-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 34-31 upset victory against Oregon as a 9.5-point underdog in the Pac-12 Championship Game on December 1st. This game is being played at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Many pundits expect this contest to be a high-scoring game — but there are clues from when these teams played in the Alamo Bowl that suggest this will be lower-scoring than expected. Despite these two teams each gaining at least 420 yards and combining for 865 total yards of offense, only 47 combined points were scored in Washington’s 27-20 victory. Texas could not run the ball against the Huskies’ defensive front as they only gained 51 yards on 18 carries as the offense became one-dimensional. The Longhorns were committed to limiting the explosiveness of the Washington passing attack so they played a quarters scheme in their secondary which stymied quarterback Michael Penix, Jr. to just one completion of 20 or more air yards. The Huskies moved the ball methodically with Penix completing all 11 of his screen passes to wide receivers and the ground game gobbling up 158 yards on 28 carries. Washington controlled time of possession by having the ball for 35:46 minutes of that game to keep Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers off the field. The Huskies deployed a similar strategy against the Ducks last month as their offense was on the field for 37:08 minutes of that game — and that helped them limit the explosive Oregon offense to just 17 first downs and only 363 total yards. Washington’s defense looks ugly when it comes to the advanced metrics — but they did only allow 23.6 Points-Per-Game this season. That unit played better later in the season once they started getting healthier — I think this is an underrated unit. The Huskies have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a victory against a Pac-12 rival by seven points or less. And while their win against Oregon was preceded by a narrow 24-21 victory against Washington State in the Apple Cup, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row against conference rivals by seven points or less. Additionally, Washington has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road on field turf. And while the Longhorns score 36.2 PPG, the Huskies have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams who score 34 or more PPG. Washington generates 470.4 total YPG — but Texas has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams who average 450 or more YPG. The Longhorns have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a game where 70 or more combined points were scored. Ewers passed for 452 yards against the Cowboys in the Big 12 Championship Game — but Texas has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after passing for 325 or more yards in their last contest. The Longhorns have scored 106 combined points in their last two games while gaining 662 and 528 yards in those contests — but they have then played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining 31 or more points in two straight games. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after generating at least 450 yards of offense in two games in a row. Despite these dynamic offensive numbers, there are some concerns underneath the hood. Texas ranks 121st in the country in Red Zone Touchdown Rate — and they are only 72nd in the country in Finishing Drives. Long possessions that end in field goals ruin Overs when the Total is set in the 60s or higher. Ewers only averages 7.3 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game which is the lowest of the four quarterbacks playing in the semifinals — and his Total QBR ranking of 15th in the nation is also the lowest of the final four QBs. The Longhorns rank 89th in the nation in Explosiveness in the passing game. On the other side of the line of scrimmage, Texas boasts an elite run defense led by their two anchors on the defensive line, T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy II. They only allow 80.8 rushing YPG so the Huskies may struggle to match their rushing numbers from the Alamo Bowl last year. The Longhorns have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set at 63 or higher — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after a bye week.  

FINAL TAKE: Neither of these teams play at a blindingly fast pace. Red Zone stops, limited explosiveness, and both teams working the Time of Possession battle is a great recipe for a lower-than-expected combined score. Texas has played 8 of their 12 games Under the Total when favored — and Washington has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* College Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (281) and the Washington Huskies (282). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Alabama Crimson Tide (279) and the Michigan Wolverines (280) in the Rose Bowl and College Football Playoff Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Alabama (12-1) has won 11 games in a row after their 27-24 upset victory as a 5.5-point underdog against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game on December 2nd. Michigan (13-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 26-0 victory against Iowa as a 21.5-point favorite in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 2nd. This game is being played at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Crimson Tide have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after beating an SEC rival in their last game — and they have played 6 straight Overs after a point spread victory. They have also played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after winning two or more games in a row. Quarterback Jalen Milroe improved significantly after being reinserted into the starting lineup and first-year offensive coordinator Tommy Rees adapted his schemes to his skill set. Milroe profiles similarly Jalen Hurts as a mobile quarterback with a huge frame. He ran for 747 non-sack yards this season. He also has a big arm with 15 completions of 40 or more yards. The Crimson Tide ranked 6th in the nation in Explosiveness in the Passing game. Alabama generated 444.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games resulting in 40.0 Points-Per-Game. Michigan has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win against a Big Ten rival — and they have played 27 of their last 39 games Over the Total on the road after a bye week. Their passing game was not nearly as explosive at the end of the season with the Wolverines not passing for more than 147 yards in four straight games — but that is a whine about style points. With offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore serving as the interim head coach in three of those games, Michigan stuck to what was working with a methodical rushing attack that protected their lead. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy was dealing with some nagging injuries in those games so not exposing him to more hits was a way to help set up their playoff run. The Wolverines still scored more points against Ohio State, Penn State, and Iowa than any other opponent — those are all top-ten defenses in the nation. McCarthy now claims he is back to 100% — and the Wolverines may unleash their passing attack that was explosive against Ohio State and TCU last year as well as Michigan State and Purdue this season. Michigan scored 37.8 Points-Per-Game in their six games played away from the Big House.

FINAL TAKE: The Wolverines have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total on a neutral field with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. The Crimson Tide have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 10* CFB Alabama-Michigan ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Alabama Crimson Tide (279) and the Michigan Wolverines (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (131) and the Minnesota Vikings (132). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (7-8) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 33-30 win at Carolina as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Minnesota (7-8) has lost two in a row and four of their last five contests after a 30-24 loss to Detroit as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers surrendered 394 total yards to the woeful Panthers offense last week. Green Bay’s defense is trending in the wrong direction — they have surrendered 404.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games resulting in 29.3 Points-Per-Game. They have allowed their last three opponents to generate 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry. They have also allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.9% of their passes for 270 passing YPG with a 7.5 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Packers have played 6 straight Overs after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight Overs after a win by six points or less. They have given up 64 combined points in their last two contests — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing 25 or more points in two games in a row. Additionally, Green Bay has played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after playing a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. They stay on the road where they have played 15 of their last 18 games Over the Total after playing their last game Over the Total. The Packers have also played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total as an underdog. The Vikings are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 70% of their passes — and Green Bay has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams that allow their opponents to complete 61% or more of their passes. Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores will dial up plenty of blitzes tonight — but Packers’ quarterback Jordan Love has had success this season against the blitz. Green Bay has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total in December. Minnesota has played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total in December. The Vikings have played 6 straight Overs when playing at home after a straight-up loss — and they have played 17 of their last 23 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Minnesota’s offense stalled a few weeks ago when the book got out on quarterback Josh Dobbs. Head coach Kevin O’Connell benched him for Nick Mullens who was able to move the ball but threw too many interceptions. The Vikings gained 390 net yards last week against the Lions with Mullens throwing for 411 yards — but he threw four interceptions. O’Connell turns back to rookie Jaren Hall who has looked good in limited action. Remember, Hall was the second-string QB behind Kirk Cousins and the first to take over under center after the veteran’s season-ending injury. But Hall suffered a concussion which kept him out until now. In two games this season, the former BYU quarterback has completed 8 of 10 passes for 101 yards with an 8.0 YPA average and no interceptions. And while he will not have tight end T.J. Hockensen who suffered a season-ending injury, wide receiver Justin Jefferson is back — and rookie wide receiver Jordan Addison will take the field after missing practice this week. Minnesota stays at home where they have played 6 straight Overs in December — and they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total as a favorite of up to seven points. The Packers allow their opponents to complete 65.9% of their passes and generate 352.0 total YPG — and the Vikings have played 17 of their last 22 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams who allow their opponents to complete 61% or more of their passes. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against opponents who allow 350 or more YPG. Minnesota has also played 32 of their last 46 games Over the Total against teams winning 40-49% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay will be motivated to avenge a 24-10 loss at home to Minnesota on October 29th. The Packers have played 6 of their last 8 games when playing with revenge — and they have played 4 straight Overs when avenging a loss at home to their opponent. 25* NFC North Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (131) and the Minnesota Vikings (132). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (103) and the Dallas Cowboys (104). THE SITUATION: Detroit (11-4) has won two games in a row after their 30-24 victory at Minnesota against the Vikings as a 2.5-point favorite. Dallas (10-5) has lost two games in a row after their 22-20 loss at Miami as a 1-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Lions generated 389 yards against the Vikings last week with the offensive line playing better together now that center Frank Ragnow is healthy again. But Detroit gave up 390 yards to the Vikings offense in the victory. The Lions go back on the road where they are allowing 25.3 PPG — and they have surrendered at least 24 points in five of their last six contests away from home. But Detroit has rushed for at least 140 yards in five straight games behind their two-headed monster of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs — and three of those games were on the road. The Cowboys can be run on as the Buffalo Bills demonstrated by gouging them for 266 yards on 5.4 Yards-Per-Carry two weeks ago. The Lions have played 20 of their last 25 games Over the Total after a victory on the road over a divisional rival. They have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a win by six points or less. They have also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. And in their last 5 games on the road with the Total set at 45.5 or higher, Detroit has played 4 of these games Over the Total. The Lions are completing 67.7% of their passes this season — and the Cowboys have played 26 of their last 38 home games in the second half of the season Over the Total against opponents who are completing 64% or more of their passes. Dallas has played their last two games on the road against difficult opponents in Buffalo and Miami. They have been a much better team at home where they have scored at least 30 points in each of their games while generating 431.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 39.9 Points-Per-Game. Head coach Mike McCarthy expects to have left tackle Tyron Smith back on the field tonight after he participated in limited practice on Thursday — he did not play last week against the Dolphins. The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 15 of their last 23 home games Over the Total when favored. Dallas has also played 9 of their last 11 home games Over the Total after the first month of the season.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total against NFC opponents — and the Lions have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against conference rivals. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (103) and the Dallas Cowboys (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toledo Rockets (271) and the Wyoming Cowboys (272) in the Arizona Bowl. THE SITUATION: Toledo (11-2) had their 11-game winning streak snapped in a 23-14 loss to Miami (OH) as a 6.5-point favorite in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game on December 2nd. Wyoming (8-4) has won two games in a row after their 42-6 victory at Nevada as an 11-point favorite on November 25th. This game is being played at the Arizona Stadium in Tucson, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockets will be without their top two offensive players in this game after both starting quarterback DeQuan Finn and running back Peny Boone entered the transfer portal. Finn was the Mid-American Conference Offensive Player of the Year while Boone rushed for 1400 yards on 7.2 Yards-Per-Carry. Their losses are significant. As it is, while Toledo generated 428.8 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 33.6 Points-Per-Game, those drop to 399.3 YPG and 25.9 PPG when they are playing away from home. The Rockets have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Toledo has a tough defense that held their opponents to just 329.7 total YPG and 20.6 PPG. Cornerback Quinyon Mitchell is expected to opt-put — but the Rockets' secondary is loaded with experience and talent led by safety Maxen Hook who is a two-time All-MAC award winner. Toledo has only forced one turnover in their last three games — but they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to force more than one turnover in three straight games. They have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after failing to force more than one turnover in their last game. Wyoming held the Wolf Pack to just 201 yards in their most recent game. The Cowboys held their opponents to only 22.9 PPG this season. Wyoming has played 31 of their last 46 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. And while they limited Nevada to just 3.65 Yards-Per-Play, they have then played 4 straight Unders after holding their last opponent to 4.0 or fewer YPP. They outgained the Wolf Pack by +208 net yards — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road after outgaining their previous opponent by +225 or more YPG. The Cowboys have only given up 85 total rushing yards in their last two games — and they have played 38 of their last 57 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in two or more games in a row. With this being head coach Craig Bohl’s final game with the team before his retirement, a spirited effort is expected. But the offensive side of the ball has faced some turmoil after offensive coordinator Tim Polasek left to take the head coaching job at North Dakota State. In their five games away from home, the Cowboys generated only 286.6 total YPG resulting in just 20.0 PPG. Wyoming has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Toledo is outscoring their opponents by +13.0 PPG — and the Cowboys have played 38 of their last 57 games Under the Total against teams outscoring their opponents by +10.0 or more PPG. The Rockets have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total against opponents winning 60-75% of their games. 25* CFB Group of Five Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Toledo Rockets (271) and the Wyoming Cowboys (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (101) and the Cleveland Browns (102). THE SITUATION: New York (6-9) has won two of their last three games after a 30-28 victory against Washington as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Cleveland (10-5) has won three straight games as well as six of their last eight contests after their 36-32 victory at Houston as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Cleveland held the Texans to just 250 total yards last week — a 98-yard kickoff return for a touchdown helped the Texans keep the game close. The Browns have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The Browns return home where they have held their last three opponents to 27 combined points when playing at home — and they have not allowed more than 17 points in four straight home games as well as six of their seven contests. Cleveland is limiting their guests to a mere 197.9 total YPG resulting in 13.1 PPG. The Browns have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total. New York has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Jets have not scored more than 13 points in four straight games and five of their last six contests. The New York offensive line has been a mess all season — and now their best lineman Duane Brown is out the season with a back injury.  

FINAL TAKE: The Jets have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and the Browns have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in Weeks 14-17 of the season. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (101) and the Cleveland Browns (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas Jayhawks (239) and the UNLV Rebels (240) in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. THE SITUATION: Kansas (8-4) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 49-16 victory at Cincinnati as a 7-point favorite on November 25th. UNLV (9-4) has lost two games in a row after their 44-20 loss at home to Boise State as a 2.5-point underdog in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. This game will be played at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Jayhawks generated 562 total yards against the Bearcats — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after gaining at least 475 or more yards in their last game. They have also played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a double-digit win against a Big 12 conference rival — and they have played 6 straight Overs after losing two of their last three games. The program did lose offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki who left the for same job at Penn State — so head coach Lance Leipold elevated quarterbacks coach Jim Zebrowski was elevated to co-offensive coordinator and veteran OC Jeff Grimes was already hired to be the new offensive coordinator and will coach this game. Quarterback Jason Bean will lead an offense that ranks ninth in Pass Success Rate. Bean joins running back Devin Neal to form an explosive rushing attack that ranks 17th in Rushing Success Rate. By deploying plenty of counter schemes, Kansas sees 25% of their rushing plays go for at least 12 yards. But the Jayhawks give up their share of points — when playing away from home, their opponents are generating 430.6 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in  28.0 Points-Per-Game. One of their problems is they do not stop drives by forcing turnovers — they have not forced more than one turnover in four straight games. Kansas has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after failing to force more than one turnover in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after failing to force more than one turnover in two straight games. And in their last 33 games after not forcing more than one turnover in three straight games, they played 23 of those games Over the Total. UNLV has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss to a Mountain West Conference rival — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss at home to a conference opponent. They have also played 39 of their last 60 games Over the Total after losing two games in a row to a conference opponent. Operating the GoGo offense under offensive coordinator Brennan Marion, the Rebels are generating 425.0 YPG and 34.7 PPG when playing on the road. The GoGo approach operates without a huddle with heavy pre-snap motions while deploying almost every formation imaginable to confuse their opponents. But the UNLV defense is vulnerable as they have given up 477.0 YPG and 36.0 PPG in their last three contests. They rank 126th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. The Rebels allowed 8.24 Yards-Per-Play to the Broncos in the MWC Championship Game — and they have played 15 of their last 19 games Over the Total after allowing 7.25 or more YPP in their last contest. That game against Boise State finished Over the 62.5-point Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: UNLV has scored 31 or more points in nine of their games — and Kansas has scored 31 or more points in eight of their contests. The Jayhawks have played 22 of their last 31 games Over the Total when getting at least two weeks of rest and preparation. 25* CFB Tuesday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas Jayhawks (239) and the UNLV Rebels (240). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (481) and the San Francisco 49ers (482). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (11-3) has won four games in a row as well as eight of their last nine contests after their 23-7 victory at Jacksonville as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (11-3) has won six games in a row with their 45-29 win at Arizona as a 12-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Ravens generated 396 yards of offense last week but did not push things with the scoreboard with them dominating the Jaguars. Baltimore has scored 31 or more points in six of their last eight games — and they are scoring 27.4 Points-Per-Game. In Lamar Jackson’s last five games against teams ranking in the top five in total defense, the Ravens are averaging more than 25 Points-Per-Game with Jackson accounting for 11 touchdowns. Baltimore has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a double-digit win — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win by 14 or more points. The Ravens have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing no more than 14 points in their last game. Despite leading the NFL in scoring defense, Baltimore can get embroiled in shootouts. Cleveland scored 33 points against them in their upset victory that saw 64 combined points scored and the Los Angeles Rams scored 31 points against them two weeks ago in the Ravens win that had 68 combined points scored. Now Baltimore goes back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total as an underdog. San Francisco has scored 27 or more points in six straight games. The 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. Furthermore, they have played 4 straight Overs after a point spread victory when they covered a double-digit point spread win. Additionally, San Francisco has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring 25 or more points in two straight games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring 25 or more points in three straight games. While nitpicking a 16-point win on the road against a division rival might be making too much of things, the fact that Arizona did generate 436 yards of offense against the 49ers' defense is cause for concern. The Cardinals generated 6.32 Yards-Per-Play against them after Seattle averaged 6.35 YPP the previous week — far above their 5.2 YPP defensive average for the season. The 49ers return home where have played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total when the favorite. They have also played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has played 8 of their last 9 games at home Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 7 points — and Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (481) and the San Francisco 49ers (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (477) and the Kansas City Chiefs (478). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (6-8) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 63-21 victory against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3-point favorite on December 14th. Kansas City (9-5) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 27-17 victory at New England as a 10.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Raiders' unlikely offensive explosion was due primarily to the Chargers lack of focus in head coach Brandon Staley’s final game with the team — and their +5 net turnover margin helped put them in scoring position (and they scored a defensive touchdown on an interception). Las Vegas only gained 378 total yards in the game. They had not scored more than 17 points in four straight games and six of their last seven before that outburst on Thursday night. The Raiders have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. They have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win at home. They have also played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. While the offense has been mostly subpar with rookie Aidan O’Connell at quarterback, the Las Vegas defense has been much better since Antonio Pierce took over as interim head coach. Under his leadership, the Raiders are holding their opponents to 15.5 Ppints-Per-Game after giving up more than 24 PPG under previous head coach Josh McDaniels. Now Las Vegas goes back on the road where they have played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range.  Kansas City held the Patriots to just 206 total yards last week in their 10-point victory. The Chiefs have held five of their last six opponents to no more than 21 points. But it is the offense that has been the bigger surprise for the defending Super Bowl champions as they have not scored more than 21 points in five of their last seven contests. Tight end Travis Kelce is beginning to show his age and the wide receiver corps has not seen a reliable second option emerge. Head coach Andy Reid is so fed up with Kadarius Toney’s mistakes that he did not even practice this week — and he is not active for this game. Rookie Rashee Rice has shown flashes — but this team would be much better off if he was the third option rather than the second. Kansas City has not rushed for more than 82 yards in two straight games as well — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than  99 yards in two straight games. The Chiefs have lost the turnover battle in three straight games — and they have played 5 straight Unders after posting a -1 or worse turnover margin in three or more games in a row. They return home where they are holding their guests to 281.8 total YPG resulting in just 16.2 PPG. Kansas City has played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against AFC opponents — and the Raiders have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against conference rivals. 10* NFL Monday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (477) and the Kansas City Chiefs (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (475) and the Denver Broncos (476). THE SITUATION: New England (3-11) has lost six of their last seven games after their 27-17 loss to Kansas City as a 10.5-point underdog on Sunday. Denver (7-7) has lost two of their last three games after their 42-17 loss at Detroit as a 5.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos gave up 185 rushing yards last week to the Lions — but they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 175 or more rushing yards in their last game. Denver has covered the point spread once in their last three games — and they have then played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games including four of these last five circumstances. Denver generated only 297.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games resulting in just 19.3 Points-Per-Game. But their defense is holding their opponents to 330.9 total YPG resulting in 20.1 PPG for these foes. Now they host a Patriots offense decimated by injuries. Running back Rhamondre Stevenson remains out — and wide receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kendrick Bourne are dealing with injuries as well. Additionally, tight Hunter Henry is out tonight with an ankle injury after leading the team last week with nine targets, seven catches, 66 receiving yards, and one of the team’s two touchdowns. Bailey Zappe remains their starting quarterback with Mac Jones permanently benched. Zappe is limited at quarterback — his initial flash when he started a handful of games last season had much to do with the benefit of playing teams with bad defenses. Now the book is out on him — and he is severely undermanned tonight. As it is, the Patriots have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss by double-digits. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total after losing five or six of their last seven contests. New England is generating only 255.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests which is resulting in just 12.7 Points-Per-Game. Now they go back on the road where they are scoring 12.3 PPG and averaging 287.7 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: We have gotten burned with our Under plays lately — but following the evidence remains the best long-term approach for success. The Patriots have played 7 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. The Broncos have played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total against AFC rivals. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (475) and the Denver Broncos (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (455) and the Los Angeles Chargers (456). THE SITUATION:  Buffalo (8-6) has won two games in a row with their 31-10 victory against Dallas as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (5-9) has lost two straight games as well as five of their last six contests after their 63-31 loss at Las Vegas as a 3-point underdog on December 14th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Since replacing fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, new OC Joe Brady has committed to running the ball more. In the Bills' last five games, they have rushed for 879 yards for a 176 rushing Yards-Per-Game average. This has helped the Bills' defense as they have held their last four opponents to 17.5 Points-Per-Game. They limited the Cowboys to just 195 total yards last week. Now they go back on the road where they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total — and they have played 38 of their last 59 road games with the Total set in the 42.5-45 point range. Additionally, Buffalo has played 8 of their last 10 games overall Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. And in their last 12 road games against AFC opponents, the Bills have played 10 of those games Under the Total. Across the sidelines, Brandon Staley was finally fired last Friday after the team sent their message to ownership in their complete and utter no-show against the Raiders on prime-time television. Frankly, the defense cannot play worse — and I expect a much better performance now that defensive coordinator Derrick Ansley is calling plays rather than Staley’s schemes that seemed to be Aaron Donald-dependent from his one year as the DC with the Los Angeles Rams. The Chargers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they allowed Las Vegas to generate 6.1 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing 6.0 or more YPP in their last game. The defense was not really the problem last week as the Raiders only generated 378 total yards — it was their -5 net turnover margin that gave Las Vegas short fields as they raced out to a 42-0 halftime lead. The Chargers return home where they have played 31 of their last 47 home games Under the Total after a game where they posted a -2 or worse net turnover margin. They have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and Buffalo has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after the first month of the season. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (455) and the Los Angeles Chargers (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (453) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (454). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (8-6) has won three games in a row after their 27-24 win in overtime as a 3-point favorite against Minnesota last Saturday. Pittsburgh (7-7) has lost three games in a row after their 30-13 loss at Indianapolis as a 1-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bengals have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a narrow win by three points or less — and they have played 5 straight Unders after a victory by three points or less at home. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing a game at home where both teams scored 24 or more points. And while quarterback Jake Browning has led his team to at least 27 points in three straight games, Cincinnati has played 19 of their last 26 road games Under the Total after scoring 25 or more points in two or more games in a row. Browning has played far above expectations after not throwing a pass in a regular season game in his first two seasons with the Bengals. But now the Steelers have four games of tape on him to study his tendencies running the Cincinnati offense — and that includes their first-hand experience against him on November 26th when Pittsburgh won on the road by a 16-10 score while holding the Bengals to just 222 total yards. To compound matters for Browning, he will be without wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase who suffered a shoulder injury last week which will keep him out of this game. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road having played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a two-game home stand. As it is, Cincinnati is generating only 316.0 total Yards-Per-Game on the road resulting in 20.8 Points-Per-Game. The Bengals have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Pittsburgh has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points — and they have played 5 straight Unders after a loss on the road by 14 or more points. The Steelers have played their last two games Over the Total — but they have then played 11 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last game and they have played 4 straight Unders after playing two more Overs in a row. They return home where they have played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Pittsburgh has also played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total as an underdog. After gaining 421 total yards in their first game after offensive coordinator Matt Canada was let go (in their victory against the Bengals last month), the Steelers' offense has reverted to its lackluster form as they have gained only 265.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games resulting in 13.7 Points-Per-Game. Pittsburgh has not scored more than 18 points in five straight games — and now head coach Mike Tomlin turns to third-string quarterback Mason Rudolph under center with Mitch Trubisky ineffective and Kenny Pickett still injured. But if there is a bright side during the Steelers’ three-game losing streak, it is that they have held those three opponents to just 185 passing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Cincinnati has played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* AFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (453) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (454). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (451) and the Los Angeles Rams (452). THE SITUATION: The New Orleans Saints (7-7) have won two games in a row after their 24-6 victory against the New York Giants as a 6.5-pint favorite last Sunday. The Los Angeles Rams (7-7) have won four of their last five games after their 28-20 victory against Washington as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints held the Giants to just 193 yards in their win on Sunday. New Orleans has an underappreciated defense that is holding their opponents to 311.9 total Yards-Per-Game and 19.7 Points-Per-Game — both those marks rank sixth best in the NFL. They also rank fourth in the league by holding their opponents to just a 34% success rate on third downs. The Saints have held their last three opponents to only 281.0 total YPG resulting in just 15.0 PPG. New Orleans has played 6 straight Unders after holding their last opponent to under ten points. They have also played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. The Saints have played two straight Unders — and not only have them played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game, they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. The problem for this team is that they managed only 296 total yards in beating the Giants last week. New Orleans is generating only 288.3 total YPG in their last three contests. Now they go on the road where they are holding their home hosts to just 312.4 total YPG and 19.0 PPG. The Saints have played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Los Angeles held the Commanders to just 297 total yards in their win last week. The Rams have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. And while they have covered the point spread in four straight contests, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. The Los Angeles offense has generated 418.9 total YPG in their last three games — and they have gained at least 399 yards in four straight contests. But the Rams have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after gaining at least 375 yards in two or more games in a row. They stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 17 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Los Angeles has also played 13 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when favored. The Rams are only scoring 23.0 PPG at home at SoFi Stadium — but they are holding their guests to 20.1 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints have played 9 straight Unders in the final four weeks of the season — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (451) and the Los Angeles Rams (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (327) and the Seattle Seahawks (328). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (10-3) has lost two games in a row after their 33-13 loss at Dallas as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. Seattle (6-7) has lost four games in a row after their 28-16 loss at San Francisco as a 16.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: As of this writing early afternoon in Las Vegas, the quarterback battle appears to be Jalen Hurts dealing with a flu bug or something against Drew Lock. Given both of these quarterback situations, I expect both of these teams to attempt to impose their physicality by running the football and controlling the line of scrimmage. Hurts did not travel with the team but is in Seattle — he will be a game-time decision. I expect him to play — but I won’t be mad if backup Marcus Mariota instead takes the field. But I do think it is fair to not expect Hurts to be 100% which is bad news for an offense that has only scored 32 combined points in their last two games. The Eagles have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. The Philadelphia defense needs help after allowing 451.7 Yards-Per-Game in their last three games. Head coach Nick Sirianni has shaken things up by moving defensive coordinator Sean Desai up to the booth to be able to observe the field better. It’s unclear if Matt Patricia will now be calling the plays or if he will be on the sidelines to relay the defensive play calls to the defense. At the very least, I suspect the Eagles' defense to shake some things up tonight. Not playing the Buffalo, San Francisco, and Dallas offenses will certainly help as Sirianni’s group has gone through a gauntlet recently. Philly stays on the road where they have played 15 of their last 25 road games Under the Total. Seattle has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing four of their last five games. And while they have covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in their previous two games. The Seahawks surrendered 354 passing yards last week to the 49ers — but they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game.  Seattle returns home where they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Seahawks have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams winning 75% or more of their games — and they have played 4 straight Unders on Monday Night Football. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (327) and the Seattle Seahawks (328). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (329) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (330). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (10-3) has won three straight games as well as seven of their last eight contests after their 37-31 victory in overtime against the Los Angeles Rams as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday. Jacksonville (8-5) has lost two games in a row after their 31-27 loss at Cleveland as a 2-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: While Lamar Jackson gets most of the attention, it is the Ravens' defense that has led the way for them this season. The Baltimore defense ranks second in the league in efficiency according to the DVOAS metrics at the Football Outsiders (now at FTN). Defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald is dialing up impressive schemes that have generated 49 combined sacks from 15 different players and each position group. The Ravens have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after winning their last game by six points or less. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Additionally, Baltimore has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win where they scored 31 or more points — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. They have also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The Ravens go back on the road where they are holding their opponents to 259.8 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 15.7 Points-Per-Game. But while Baltimore generates 372.5 total YPG and 27.8 PPG on the season, those numbers plummet to just 23.3 PPG and 339.2 YPG in their six games on the road. Baltimore has played 5 of their last 7 games on the road with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Jacksonville managed only 293 total yards last week in their loss a Cleveland. Now they return home where they are generating 315.7 total YPG resulting ing 21.8 PPG — those are drops by -2.2 PPG and -27.0 YPG from their season averages. The Jaguars have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored.

FINAL TAKE: Jacksonville has played 10 of their last 14 home games Under the Total as an underdog — and Baltimore has played 10 of their last 14 road games Under the Total when favored. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (329) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (330). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Denver Broncos (311) and the Detroit Lions (312). THE SITUATION: Denver (7-6) has won six of their last seven contests after their 24-7 upset win in Los Angeles against the Chargers on Sunday. Detroit (9-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 28-13 upset loss at Chicago as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Denver has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset victory — and they have played 8 straight Unders after a win by double-digits. The Broncos have also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up victory — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Additionally, Denver has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Broncos have held their last three opponents to just 301.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in only 13.7 Points-Per-Game. They stay on the road where they have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total — and they have also played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total as an underdog. Detroit has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a double-digit upset loss as a road favorite. They have also played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Lions are only scoring 22.7 Points-Per-Game in their last three games — but they return home where they are holding their opponents to 297.7 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 22.7 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Lions have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing a team from the AFC. 10* NFL Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between Denver Broncos (311) and the Detroit Lions (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (301) and the Las Vegas Raiders (302). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (5-8) has lost four of their last five games after their 24-7 upset loss at home to Denver as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Las Vegas (5-8) has lost three games in a row after their 3-0 loss at home to Minnesota as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.  

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers only managed 283 total yards last week in their loss to the Broncos. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last five contests, they have then played 9 straight Unders after failing to cover the point spread in at least two of their last three games. The Chargers have played four straight Unders — but they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. Backup quarterback Easton Stick makes his first career start tonight despite being in the league for five seasons — and he will have a limited supporting cast tonight. Wide receiver Keenan Allen is out tonight — and the offense was already missing wide receiver Mike Williams due to his season-ending injury. Wide receiver Joshua Palmer returns from injury — but he is not a number one option and rookie Quentin Johnston has been a bust with his inability to run NFL routes or comprehend the playbook. The season-ending injury to center Corey Linsley earlier this year was a big blow to the offense. Los Angeles goes back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, the Chargers have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total in the second half of the season. Las Vegas only managed 202 total yards last week in their shutout loss — but they did hold the Vikings to just 231 total yards. The Raiders have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 straight Unders after a point spread loss. Furthermore, they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to score more than three points in the first half of their last game. And while they endured a -3 net turnover margin last week, they have played 6 straight Unders after posting a -3 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. Head coach Antonio Pierce has not named his starting quarterback tonight although the expectation is that it will remain rookie Aidan O’Connell — but the offense may be without running back Josh Jacobs and wide receiver Davante Adams who are both listed as questionable. The Raiders stay at home on the short week — and their defense has been stout when playing at Allegiant Stadium where they are holding their opponents to 301.4 YPG which is resulting in just 15.0 PPG. Las Vegas has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC opponents. The Chargers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against AFC opponents — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total against AFC West rivals. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (301) and the Las Vegas Raiders (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (129) and the Miami Dolphins (130). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (4-8) has lost four of their last five games after their 31-28 loss in overtime at home to Indianapolis as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Miami (9-3) has won three straight games after their 45-15 victory at Washington as a 9-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: In a losing effort, quarterback Will Levis completed only 16 of 33 passes for 224 yards. After making a big splash in his opening game by throwing four touchdown passes against Atlanta, Levis has only three touchdown passes in his last five games. Behind a porous offensive line, Levis has been sacked 20 times which is the third most in the NFL during that span. I don’t see the Titans putting up many points against what is a surging Dolphins defense. Tennessee had not scored more than 17 points in four straight games before last week — and they still have not scored more than 17 points in six of their last eight contests. The Titans have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss to an AFC South rival. And while their game with the Colts finished Over the Total, they have played 12 of their 16 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Tennessee run defense has played better lately as they have not allowed more than 96 rushing yards in two straight games and three of their last four contests — and they have played 13 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not allowing 100 or more rushing yards in two or more games in a row. The Titans outrushed the Colts by +122 net rushing yards — and they have played 7 straight Unders after outrushing their last opponent by +75 or more rushing yards. And while they gave up 300 passing yards to Indianapolis, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last contest. They go back on the road where they are generating only 249.1 total Yards-Per-Game which results in just 12.3 Points-Per-Game. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total against AFC rivals. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the last four weeks of the season under head coach Mike Vrabel. While Miami’s offensive attack gets most of the attention, it is the play of their defense that has them in contention to claim the top seed in the AFC playoff race. The Dolphins have responded to first-year defensive coordinator Vic Fangio — and they have been much better since getting cornerback Jalen Ramsey back from injury. Miami has held their last three opponents to just 41 combined points with none of those teams scoring more than 15 points. They have not allowed more than 21 points in five straight games — and they have held seven of their last eight opponents to no more than 21 points after their debacle against Buffalo where they gave up 48 points. The Dolphins have scored 79 combined points in their last two games — but they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a game where 60 or more combined points were scored. Teams rarely put up big numbers against a Vrabel-coached team (and the Colts scored one of their touchdowns on a blocked punt on special teams). The Titans have held nine of their 12 opponents to 27 or fewer points — and they have held eight of their opponents to no more than 24 points. Miami has played 9 of their 13 home games Under the Total with Mike McDaniel as their head coach — and they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Under the Total with the Total set from 42.5 to 49.

FINAL TAKE: The Dolphins have been favored by double-digits four times under McDaniel — and 3 of those games finished Under the Total. Miami has also played 3 of their last 4 home games Under the Total when favored by 10.5 to 14 points. 10* NFL Monday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (129) and the Miami Dolphins (130). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (131) and the New York Giants (132). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (6-6) has pulled off three straight upset victories after their 27-19 win against Kansas City as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. New York (4-8) has pulled off two straight upset wins after their 10-7 victory against New England as a 3.5-point underdog back on November 26th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Giants held the Patriots to just 283 total yards in pulling that upset two weeks ago. After getting torched by Las Vegas and Dallas, the New York defense has allowed only 26 combined points in their last two games. They have held five of their last seven opponents to under 20 points — and they have had an extra week to prepare against Jordan Love and this Packers offense. But the Giants managed only 220 total yards against New England last week — and in their last three games, they are generating just 228.0 total Yards-Per-Game. In their last four games, they are scoring just 16.5 Points-Per-Game — and they have scored more than 17 points only once in their last ten games. New York has played 36 of their last 48 games Under the Total after a win by three points or less — and they have played 18 of their last 25 home games Under the Total after a win at home by three points or less. They have played 7 straight home games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. And in their last 56 games after holding their previous opponent to less than 10 points, they have played 39 of those games Under the Total. They do stay at home for this one where they are generating just 237.8 total YPG which is resulting in a mere 7.4 PPG — but they are holding their guests to 270.6 total YPG and only 18.2 PPG. The Giants have played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total at home. Green Bay held the Chiefs offense to just 337 total yards of offense in their victory last week. The Packers are ninth in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 20.5 PPG. Linebacker Rashan Gary is becoming a superstar in the league — he has 9.5 sacks this season with 4.5 of them coming in the last three weeks. Green Bay has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after pulling off two straight upset victories. They have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three straight games. The Packers' three straight victories have coincided with them winning the turnover battle in all three games. They have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after two straight games where they won the turnover battle — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after winning the turnover battle for three straight contests. And while they have scored 56 combined points in two straight games, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring 25 or more points in two or more games in a row. Now they go back on the road where they are only generating 324.2 total YPG which is resulting in 23.3 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and the Giants have played 13 of their last 14 home games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (131) and the New York Giants (132). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (127) and the Dallas Cowboys (128). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (10-2) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 42-19 loss to San Francisco as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Dallas (9-3) has won four games in a row after their 41-35 victory against Seattle as a 9.5-point favorite back on November 30th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss at home — and they have played 19 of their last 27 road games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Philadelphia’s defense should play better tonight after allowing the 49ers to generate 8.56 Yards-Per-Play en route to their 456 yards of offense. The Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 35 or more points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 6.0 or more YPP in their last contest. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a game where 60 or more combined points were scored. And while the Eagles have played two straight high-scoring games where at least 61 combined points were scored, they have then played 33 of their last 49 games Under the Total after two games in a row where 50 or more combined points were scored. They go back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher — and they have played 5 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Dallas is scoring 42.0 Points-Per-Game in their last four games — and they have scored at least 33 points during that span. But the Cowboys have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring 30 or more points in four or more games in a row. The Dallas defense has something to prove after allowing the Seahawks to generate 6.44 Yards-Per-Play which resulted in 406 total yards — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. They have also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more yards in their last contest. They stay at home where they are holding their opponents to just 283.7 total YPG which is resulting in only 15.8 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has revenge on their mind from their 28-23 loss at Philadelphia on November 5th in a game where they held the Eagles to under 300 yards of offense — and in their three previous opportunities in the last three years to avenge a loss where they allowed 28 or more points, all 3 of those games finished Under the Total. Philadelphia has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams winning 75% or more of their games. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (127) and the Dallas Cowboys (128). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (123) and the Los Angeles Chargers (124). THE SITUATION: Denver (6-6) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 22-17 loss at Houston as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles (5-7) ended their three-game losing streak with their 6-0 victory at New England as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos only gained 282 total yards last week with head coach Sean Payton continuing to deploy his Russell Wilson “fix” by asking him to not pass the football — he only had 26 pass attempts last week but still threw three interceptions. After starting the season by throwing 32 or more times in four of his five games. Wilson has not thrown more than 29 passes in six of his last seven games with Payton trying to deploy a ball-control offense to help his defense (and not ask too much of Wilson). Denver is holding their last seven opponents to 17.3 Points-Per-Game. Since Week Eight, the Broncos' defense leads the NFL with 15 takeaways — and they are second in the league with an Opponent’ Third Down Success Rate of 29.0 and an Opponents’ Passer Rating of 73.9. But Denver is generating only 290.3 total Yards-Per-Game — and they are averaging just 290.6 total YPG on the road. The Broncos game with the Texans finished Under the 47-point Total for that game — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. They stay on the road where they have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total — and they have played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams winning 40-49% of their games. They have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 10 of their last 14 road games Under the Total as a dog. Furthermore, the Broncos have played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 27 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range, Denver has played 18 of these games Under the Total. Los Angeles head coach Brandon Staley seems to be using his final weeks as the Chargers head coach by finally trying to do things to help his defense — perhaps with the hopes that he can get a job in the league again as a defensive coordinator. Unfortunately for quarterback Justin Herbert, he has done so by neutering the offensive side of the ball. Los Angeles managed only 241 total yards en route to their six points against the Patriots last week. The Chargers are generating only 304.7 total YPG in their last three games which is resulting in just 12.0 PPG. But they have held their last three opponents to 338.3 total YPG and 14.3 PPG. Injuries have played a role in slowing down the offense. The offensive line has struggled without center Corey Linsley. Running back Austin Ekeler seems to have lost a step — and Staley has even gone so far as to open up the lead-back role into an open competition with Joshua Kelley. The injuries to wide receivers Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer have left Herbert without a viable second option to Keenan Allen — and rookie Quentin Johnston appears to be a bust as he struggles with the playbook and route running. Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win on the road — and they have played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. They return home where they have played 32 of their last 45 home games Under the Total as a favorite of up to three points.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and the Broncos have played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total after the first month of the season. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (123) and the Los Angeles Chargers (124). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (101) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (102). THE SITUATION: New England (2-10) has lost five games in a row after their 6-0 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 4.5-point underdog last Sunday. Pittsburgh (7-5) has lost two of their last three games after their 24-10 upset loss to Arizona as a 6-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Just an ugly matchup between two offenses stuck in the 20th century relying on backup quarterbacks — and all of this on a short week. The small Total would even be considered quite low for a preseason game — but with both of these defenses being very good, there is a good chance that at least one of these teams will not reach double-digits. The Steelers' defense has been outstanding this season — after holding Arizona to just 282 total yards last week, they have held their last three opponents to just 254.3 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in only 15.7 Points-Per-Game. Pittsburgh has held eight of their last nine opponents to 20 points or less. But they have scored 16 points or less in three straight games — and they are generating only 287.3 total Yards-Per-Game at home which is resulting in just 16.1 Points-Per-Game. The Steelers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. They only scored three points in the first half last week — and they have played 6 straight Unders after failing to score more than three points in the first half of their last game. And while Pittsburgh has played three straight Unders, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They face a woeful Patriots offense that has not scored more than seven points in three straight games — and they have not scored more than 17 points in 11 straight contests. New England has failed to score more than seven points five times this season. The offensive line has struggled. The wide receiver room lacks speed. Running back Rhamondre Stevenson may be the best playmaker on offense but he is out with a high ankle sprain. Wide receiver Demario Douglas is also out. Ezekiel Elliott is averaging only 3.8 Yards-Per-Carry — and asking him to be the bell cow back on a short week is ambitious. Mac Jones deserved getting benched — but Bailey Zappe is not in a position to do much better. His decent numbers last season were helped by a soft slate of defenses he was fortunate to face. He is completing only 59.8% of his passes this season with no touchdowns and two interceptions. He is averaging a mere 4.7 Yards-Per-Attempt — and he has a QBR of 50.2. He passed for only 141 yards last week despite playing the entire game — and New England has played 6 straight Unders after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. On the road, the Patriots are generating only 285.2 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 10.8 PPG. But the New England defense continues to play well despite all this. They have held their last three opponents to 10 points or less — and those opponents are generating just 241.7 total Yards-Per-Game. The Patriots have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 20 of their last 24 games Under the Total after losing six or seven of their last eight contests. They have played four straight Unders coming into this game — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last contest. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. And in their last 10 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game, they have played 9 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Patriots have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road — and the Steelers have played 16 of their last 24 games at home Under the Total including five of their seven home games this season. 10* NFL New England-Pittsburgh Amazon Prime O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (101) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (473) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (474). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (5-6) has lost three straight games after their 16-10 loss to Pittsburgh as a 2-point underdog last Sunday. Jacksonville (8-3) has won two straight games after their 24-21 victory as a 1-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bengals offense simply takes a big without the injured Joe Burrow under center. They are scoring only 15 Points-Per-Game in their last eight games without Burrow as their starting quarterback. With Jake Browning under center, Cincinnati only registered ten first downs and just 222 total yards of offense. The lack of a credible ground game was always going to be a problem for this team in attempting to make a Super Bowl run this year. Running back Joe Mixon has lost a step (or two) — he is generating only 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry this season after posting that same number last year. The offense misses Samaje Perine who they did not resign in the offseason — and rookie Chase Brown has not been able to take his place as a third down back or even a change-of-pace back (although he may get opportunities tonight, out of desperation). Cincinnati has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss at home — and they have played 5 straight Unders after losing two or more games in a row. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in three straight games — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. The Cincinnati defense allowed 421 yards last week — but they did not break as they held the Steelers to only those 16 points. They have played 25 of their last 36 road games Under the Total after getting outgained by -150 or more yards in their last contest. And while the Bengals have allowed at least 405 yards in three straight games, they have then played 19 of their last 27 road games Under the Total after allowing 375 or more yards in two or more games in a row. Cincinnati goes back on the road where they have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. Jacksonville has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win on the road — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a point spread win. And while they have won four of their last five games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. The Jaguars generated 6.54 Yarsds-Per-Play against the Texans — but they have played 5 straight Unders after averaging 6.5 or more YPP in their last game. There is a perception regarding how good Trevor Lawrence is already — and he may develop into an elite quarterback. But he has thrown only four touchdown passes in the last four weeks. In their last three games, Jacksonville has scored only 20.3 PPG. And in their five games at home, they are generating just 303.6 total YPG which is resulting in only 20.0 PPG. The Jaguars have played 13 of their last 21 games at home Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Jacksonville has played 23 of their last 35 games Under the Total when playing on a grass field. The Bengals have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total against AFC opponents. Lastly, Cincinnati has played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total on the road. 10* NFL Cincinnati-Jacksonville ABC-TV/ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (473) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (471) and the Green Bay Packers (472). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (8-3) has won two of their last three games after their 31-17 victory at Las Vegas as a 9.5-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay (5-6) has won three of their last four games after their 29-22 upset win against Detroit as an 8.5-point underdog last Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Despite scoring 31 points last week against the Raiders, the Chiefs are scoring only 19.5 Points-Per-Game in their last four games. Kansas City is generating only 339.2 total Yards-Per-Game when playing on the road which is resulting in 21.3 PPG. The lack of emergence of a number one wide receiver is apparent. Rookie Rashee Rice did catch eight balls last week against Las Vegas — but the rookie had not been targeted more than six times in his previous seven games. The bigger story is the slow decline of Travis Kelce’s productivity. No, it has done nothing to do with his Hollywood business relationship with What’s Her Name — but that arrangement just in time for his appearance on about a half dozen television commercials and her concert movie does indicate that the 34-year-old is thinking about life after football. He’s slowing down — and the fact that defenses can double-team him without getting burned elsewhere on the field is hurting this offensive attack. But the Kansas City defense has become outstanding as they are holding their opponents to 290.0 total YPG which is resulting in just 16.5 PPG. The Chiefs have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. They have covered the point spread in two of their last three games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Additionally, Kansas City has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing on grass. And in their last 27 games as a favorite, they have played 18 of these games Under the Total. Green Bay has played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after an upset victory against an NFC North rival — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after an upset victory against a divisional rival as an underdog getting six or more points. They have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win on the road. The Packers have pulled off two straight upset victories after upsetting the Los Angeles Chargers at home two weeks ago — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after pulling off two straight upset victories. Green Bay has won the turnover battle in their last two games — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after posting a +1 or better net turnover margin in their last game. Despite those victories, the Packers are scoring only 23.7 PPG in their last three contests. They return home to Lambeau Field where they are generating just 325.6 total YPG which is resulting in 18.2 PPG. But the Green Bay defense holds their guests to just 316.0 total YPG which is only resulting in 19.6 PPG. The Packers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against AFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and Kansas City has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after the first month of the season. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (471) and the Green Bay Packers (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Panthers (459) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (460). THE SITUATION: Carolina (1-10) has lost four games in a row after their 17-10 loss at Tennessee as a 4-point underdog last Sunday. Tampa Bay (4-7) has lost two games in a row and six of their last seven after a 27-20 loss at Indianapolis on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Panthers managed only 258 total yards last week in their loss against the Titans — and that was the final straw for head coach Frank Reich who was fired earlier in the week. Bill Walsh calling the plays would not make a dramatic difference for this Carolina offense that lacks playmakers. They have scored only 12.5 Points-Per-Game in their last four contests. The Panthers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They also have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss on the road. And in their last 13 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game, they have played 9 of these games Under the Total. Carolina is playing good defense lately — they have held their last three opponents 290.0 total YPG which has resulted in only 22.0 PPG. They stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Tampa Bay managed only 298 total yards last week in their last against the Colts. Head coach Todd Bowles was as angry as he gets after the game regarding some of the fundamental play from his players on defense as they gave up 394 total yards in that game. Look for that to get cleaned up for this contest. The Buccaneers have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. They return home where they are scoring only 15.4 PPG — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. They have also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total when favored.  

FINAL TAKE: The Panthers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against NFC opponents — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against NFC South rivals. The Buccaneers have played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total against the NFC. 8* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Panthers (459) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (460). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (461) and the Tennessee Titans (462). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-5) has won three games in a row after their 27-20 victory against Tampa Bay as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Tennessee (4-7) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 17-10 victory against Carolina as a 4-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Colts held the Buccaneers to just 298 yards last week as they continue to play very good defense. Through Week Eight of the season, Indianapolis was giving up 371 Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 28 Points-Per-Game. Since Week Nine in their three games (including their bye week), they have held their last three opponents to just 304.3 YPG and 13.0 PPG — and none of those opponents scored more than 20 points. They have risen to 11th in the NFL in the Defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders (now located at FTN). Digging deeper into those numbers, through the first eight weeks of the season they were allowing 247 passing YPG and their opponents were scoring touchdowns in the Red Zone at a 64% clip. Since then, they are giving up only 161 passing YPG — and their opponents are scoring touchdowns in just 22% of their trips inside the Red Zone. The Colts defense is doing a great job in forcing turnovers — they have forced at least one turnover in 16 straight games and they have eight takeaways in their last four contests. Indianapolis has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. Now they face a Titans team generating only 284.0 total YPG — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who are not averaging more than 285 YPG. Gardner Minshew has been steady under center for this team replacing the injured Anthony Richardson — but this is the Colts' just second true road game in their last six contests after one of their technical road games was in Germany. They are generating just 299.2 total YPG on the road which is resulting in 22.0 PPG. Indianapolis has played 5 straight road games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when favored. They will be without running back Jonathan Taylor who is nursing a thumb injury. Minshew has not thrown a touchdown pass in his last 87 throws. Tennessee only managed 264 total yards last week — but they did hold the Panthers to just 258 yards of offense in their victory. Since making a big splash in his professional debut against Atlanta at the end of October, rookie quarterback Will Levis has been only okay since. He has only thrown two touchdown passes in his last four starts — and he is completing under 60% of his passes. Running back Derrick Henry appears to have lost a step or two. The Titans are averaging only 103 rushing YPG this season which ranks 21st in the league and is the lowest number for this team since 2015. Tennessee has scored no more than 17 points in four straight games — and they have generated just 236.0 total YPG in their last three contests which is resulting in only 12.3 PPG. But the Titans have not allowed more than 20 points in three of their last four contests. They stay at home where they are holding their guests to just 288.3 total YPG and 15.0 PPG. Tennessee has played 16 of their last 22 home games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 38.5-42 point range. Additionally, the Titans have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, while the Colts are allowing 24.4 PPG, Tennessee has played 6 straight Unders against teams allowing 24.0 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total against AFC South rivals — and Indianapolis has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total against division foes. Tennessee is avenging a 23-16 loss in Indy as a 2-point road favorite on October 8th — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss. 25* AFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (461) and the Tennessee Titans (462). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (317) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (318) in the SEC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Georgia (12-0) has won 29 straight games after their 31-23 victory against Georgia Tech as a 24-point favorite last Saturday. Alabama (11-1) has won ten straight games after a 27-24 win at Auburn on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This Bulldogs team is not quite as stout as it has been the previous two seasons. Being a feeder to the NFL has eventually taken its toll on this unit, especially up front. Georgia only ranks 81st in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed — and they have struggled against mobile quarterbacks. Now they face Jalen Milroe who has a body type like another former Crimson Tide quarterback — Jalen Hurts. Milroe is averaging 7.24 Yards-Per-Carry (excluding sacks). The Bulldogs have allowed 20 or more points in six of their last nine games after the Yellow Jackets put up 23 points on the scoreboard. Georgia has played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread including five of those six circumstances this season. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point-spread loss. And in their last 9 games after winning three or more games in a row, they have played 6 of those games Over the Total. But while their defensive front is not quite as dominant this season, the Georgia offensive line is stacked with at least four future NFLers in that group. The Bulldogs have allowed only ten quarterback sacks all season — and quarterback Carson Beck has been outstanding when given time in the pocket. When not facing pressure, Beck has completed 75% of his passes for 3189 passing yards with 17 touchdown passes. Georgia ranks third in the nation in Pass Success Rate — and they should be able to run the ball against an Alabama front that is not as stout either from past seasons as they rank 63rd in the nation in Line Yards Allowed. The Bulldogs have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total against SEC opponents. Alabama has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in conference play. Since returning to the field after getting benched early in the season, Milroe has 26 touchdowns and only five turnovers. He has a big arm — and he ranks fourth in the nation by averaging 21.2 yards per pass attempt of at least 20 air yards. The Crimson Tide generated 451 total yards last week against the Tigers — including that miracle fourth-and-31-yard conversion to win the game. Alabama is going to be feisty in this game. The Crimson Tide has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a win against an SEC rival. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win by six points or less. They had scored at least 34 points in four straight games before only scoring 27 points last week in the Iron Bowl. The Crimson Tide have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Alabama has won 16 straight games played in Atlanta — so they are not going to back down to the reigning two-time National Champions. Despite their mutual reputations for defense, these two teams have played 9 of their last 11 meetings against each other Over the Total — and the last three SEC Championship Games have finished Over the Total. 25* CFB SEC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (317) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (318). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (305) and the Washington Huskies (306) in the Pac-12 Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Oregon (11-1) has won six games in a row after their 31-7 victory against Oregon State as a 13.5-point favorite last Friday. Washington (12-0) continued their unbeaten season with a 24-21 victory against Washington State as a 16-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral field at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Total is in the mid-60s for this rematch from the Huskies’ 36-33 victory at home in that shootout on October 14th — but look for this to be a lower-scoring game this time around. Washington only gained 306 total yards last week their narrow win against the Huskies in the Apple Cup. There are whispers that star quarterback Michael Penix, Jr. is slowed by an injury. The Huskies have not scored more than 24 points in three of their last six games. They are generating only 346.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games which has resulted in 27.0 Points-Per-Game — a healthy number but not indicative of an elite offense clicking on all cyclones. Head coach Karen DeBoer has leaned more on his rushing attack — perhaps to take some pressure on the defense that is not a great unit against the run. After running the ball only 23 times against the Ducks (37.0% of their offensive snaps), they then ran the ball just 15 times the next week (23.0% of their offensive snaps) against Arizona State in that narrow 15-7 win. It was then that things began to change. In their 42-33 win against Stanford, they ran the ball 27 times representing 40.9% of their offensive snaps. The big change came when the Huskies played the powerful USC offense the next week. Washington ran the ball 40 times representing 57.1% of their offensive snaps — and they have continued to run the ball closer to the 50% of the time ever since. On the season, the Huskies run the ball on 41.7% of their snaps. Since the Arizona State game, they have run the ball in 46.2% of their snaps — and they have run the ball in 47.3% of their snaps since the USC game which I suspect will be their template for success in this contest. Running the ball will keep Bo Nix off the field while resting the Washington defense. The Huskies have played  5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win at home against a Pac-12 rival. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. And in their last 10 games after beating a conference rival by seven points or less, they have played 8 of those games Under the Total. Washington has not rushed for more than 125 yards in three straight games — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not rushing for more than 125 yards in two or more games in a row. The Huskies do have an outstanding secondary — they rank 14th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. But Washington's run defense is their weakness as they rank 129th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 132nd in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. This is where I expect the Ducks to go to work in this rematch. Oregon ranks second in the nation in Rushing Success Rate behind running back Bucky Irving. They also rank fourth in the nation in Line Yards — so their offensive should dominate the Washington defensive front. The Ducks have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win by 21 or more points. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win by double-digits against a conference opponent. Oregon dominated their in-state rival Beavers — they generated 28 first downs while controlling the Time of Possession for 34:03 minutes. The Ducks have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a game where they were on offense for 34 or more minutes while generating 34 or more first downs. Oregon’s defense is outstanding — they have held their last six opponents to 16.0 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Ducks have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on grass — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when favored. The Huskies have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog. 10* CFB Friday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (305) and the Washington Huskies (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.      

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Mexico State Aggies (307) and the Liberty Flames (308) in the Conference USA Championship Game. THE SITUATION: New Mexico State (10-3) is on an eight-game winning streak after their 20-17 upset win at Jacksonville State as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. Liberty (12-0) remained undefeated this season with their 42-28 victory at UTEP as a 17-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Aggies held the Gamecocks to just 333 total yards last week. They have held their last three opponents to just 327.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in them scoring only 18.7 Points-Per-Game. New Mexico State’s defense ranks 39th in the nation using Bill Connelly’s SP+ tempo-free metrics. Head coach Jerry Kill deploys a ball control offense — they pass the ball at the 103rd lowest rate in the FBS. The Aggies have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win against a conference opponent. They have played 4 straight Unders after an upset victory — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. New Mexico State has held their last two opponents to 85 and 65 rushing yards — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in two straight games. The Aggies already play tough defense against the pass — they rank 27th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. On the other side of the ball, New Mexico is a good running team that ranks sixth in the nation in Rushing Success Rate — so they should be able to sustain some drives. But they have not scored more than 28 points in eight of their last 11 games. On the other hand, they have held nine of their last 10 opponents to no more than 24 points. The Aggies play on the road at Williams Stadium having played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. Liberty held the Miners to just 271 total yards last week — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory against a conference rival. The Flames took a 28-7 lead at halftime in that game — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring 24 or more points in the first half of their last contest. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring 42 or more points. Frankly, Liberty has been feasting on some of the worst defenses in the nation with nine of their 12 opponents ranking 85th or lower in Connelly’s SP+ tempo-free defensive ratings. When they played a Jacksonville State team that ranks 49th in the SP+ defensive rankings, their 31 points were the second-fewest of the season— and their 422 total yards in the game were -76.9 fewer than their season average. On the other side of the ball, Liberty has held their last three opponents to only 314.0 total YPG which has resulted in just 21.0 PPG. They rank 43rd in the SP+ defensive rankings — and their Havoc Rate is seventh best in the nation. The Flames host this championship game having played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Liberty won the first meeting between these teams by 16 points — although their 33 points were the third-fewest they scored all season. The Aggies have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a loss at home. Both of these teams play at a slower pace — New Mexico State ranks 309th in the nation by averaging 30.9 seconds per play and the Flames average 28.8 seconds per play which ranks 97th.  25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New Mexico State Aggies (307) and the Liberty Flames (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (303) and the Dallas Cowboys (304). THE SITUATION: Seattle (6-5) has lost three of their last four games after their 31-13 loss to San Francisco as a 7-point underdog last Thursday. Dallas (8-3) has won three games in a row as well as five of their last six after their 45-10 victory against Washington as a 13.5-point favorite on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have scored at least 33 points in three straight games as well as four of their last five contests with the lone exception being their 28-23 loss at Philadelphia at the beginning of the month. They generated 431 yards against the Commanders despite having their offense on the field for only 23:06 minutes of that game. Dak Prescott is playing as well as he has at any time in his career after completing 22 of 32 passes against Washington for 331 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions. The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win at home. Furthermore, Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring 30 or more points in their last game — and they have played 6 straight home games Over the Total after scoring 25 or more points in two straight contests. They have also played 6 straight home games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Cowboys are generating 443.4 total Yards-Per-Game at home this season which is resulting in a whopping 41.0 Points-Per-Game.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (273) and the Minnesota Vikings (274). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 31-26 loss at Detroit as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (6-5) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 21-20 loss at Denver as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bears are giving up 28.8 Points-Per-Game when on the road this season after the Lions scored two touchdowns in the final four minutes of the game to steal that victory. Chicago has played 7 straight Overs after a loss by six points or less in their last game. They have played 6 straight Overs on the road after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. They have also played 6 straight Overs on the road after losing three of their last 4 games. The Bears did get Justin Fields back under center last week and he played well by completing 16 of 23 passes for 169 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. Fields is playing for his professional future right now with Chicago in a position to take draft one of the top college quarterbacks in the upcoming NFL draft. After staying in the pocket early in the season, Fields is using his legs more to gain yards — he rushed for 104 yards against the Lions on 18 carries. Fields was very productive last season when he was given the green light to run the ball. With everyone in this organization on the hot seat including Fields himself, expect him to to continue to be aggressive with his legs. He has also been more effective in the passing game — since Week Four, Fields ranks seventh in the NFL in Expected Points Added per Dropback. And while the Vikings generate 5.8 Yards-Per-Play, the Bears have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against opponents who average 5.65 or more YPP. Minnesota has played 14 of their last 18 games at home Over the Total after a straight-up where they covered the point spread as an underdog. They have also played 15 of their last 19 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games — and they have played 7 straight Overs at home after winning four or five of their last six games. Even without the injured Kirk Cousins, the Vikings are generating 378.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games which is resulting in 26.0 PPG. At home, Minnesota is averaging 402.6 total YPG. Joshua Dobbs is making a strong case that he should be one of the 32 starting quarterbacks in the league. In his three starts in a Vikings uniform, he has completed 65.6% of his passes for 647 yards with four touchdown passes and only one interception. He is another mobile quarterback as well who has rushed for 131 in his last three games on a 5.7 Yards-Per-Carry average and another three touchdowns. The Bears allow opposing quarterbacks to complete 68.4% of their passes — and Minnesota has played 14 of their last 19 games in the second half of the season Over the Total against teams who allow opposing QBs to complete 61% or more of their passes. The Bears are completing 64% of their passes this season — and the Vikings have played 14 of their last 16 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams who are completing 64% of their passes.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total in the second half of the season — and Chicago has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (273) and the Minnesota Vikings (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (271) and the Los Angeles Chargers (272). THE SITUATION:  Baltimore (8-3) has won five of their last six games after their 34-20 win against Cincinnati as a 4-point favorite on November 16th. Los Angeles (4-6) has lost two games in a row after their 23-20 upset loss to Green Bay as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens offense is getting most of the attention for head coach John Harbaugh’s team after they scored at least 31 points in their fifth straight game — but the play of the Baltimore defense deserves more attention. They held the Bengals to just 272 yards last week in their 14-point victory. The Ravens are holding their opponents to just 273.5 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 16.1 Points-Per-Game — and their defense has been stingy on the road where they are holding their home hosts to just 256.0 total YPG and 16.8 PPG. Baltimore has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after beating an AFC North rival. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Additionally, the Ravens have played 41 of their last 63 games Under the Total after scoring 25 or more points in two straight games — and they have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after scoring 25 or more points in three or more games in a row. Baltimore has played two straight Overs with both those contests seeing 54 or more combined points — but they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing two or more Overs in a row. They have also played 4 straight Unders after playing two or more games in a row where 50 or more combined points were scored. They go back on the road where they are averaging -31.7 fewer YPG than their season average — and that is resulting in them scoring -3.8 fewer PPG away from home. To compound matters, Lamar Jackson will be without his favorite target Mark Andrews after he suffered an ankle injury last week that will keep him out for an extended period. The Ravens have played 9 of their last 13 road games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total as a favorite in general. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in two straight games — and they have played 7 straight Unders after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. The Chargers have covered the point spread twice in their last seven games — and they have played 33 of their last 51 games at home Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. Los Angeles did generate 6.57 Yards-Per-Play against the Packers last week — but they have then played 35 of their last 48 home games Under the Total after generating 6.5 or more YPP in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and the Ravens have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total in the second half of the season. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (271) and the Los Angeles Chargers (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (261) and the Atlanta Falcons (262). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (5-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 27-19 upset loss at Minnesota as a 3-point favorite back on November 12th. Atlanta (4-6) suffered their third straight upset loss in their 25-23 loss at Arizona as a 2-point underdog on November 12th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints only managed 280 yards of offense against the Vikings' defense in their last game. Quarterback Derek Carr got knocked out of that contest — but he has cleared the concussion protocol and will play in this game. New Orleans only managed a field goal in the first half of that contest — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not scoring more than three points in the first half of their last game. They only rushed for 65 yards as well against Minnesota — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 75 yards in their last game. The Saints have not covered the point spread in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread just once in their last five games. New Orleans has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. They go back on the road where they are holding their opponents to 298.5 total Yards-Per-Game which results in their home hosts scoring 18.2 Points-Per-Game. The Saints have played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Atlanta has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row. Their loss to the Cardinals two weeks ago was preceded by a 31-28 loss at home to Minnesota — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row by three points or less. The Falcons return home where they have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as the underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against NFC South rivals — and Atlanta has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total in the second half of the season. 8* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (261) and the Atlanta Falcons (262). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (253) and the Indianapolis Colts (254). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (4-6) has lost five of their last six games after their 27-14 loss at San Francisco as a 13.5-point underdog last Sunday. Indianapolis (5-5) won their second game in a row with their 10-6 victory against New England in Germany as a 2-point favorite back on November 12th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneers have failed to score more than 20 points in five of their last six games — and now starting running back Rachaad White was a late addition to the injury report yesterday as questionable. Tampa Bay only managed 287 total yards last week against the 49ers. They are scoring only 19.7 Points-Per-Game and averaging 304.7 Yards-Per-Game this season. The Buccaneers have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. They have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. The Bucs have struggled to get a running game going all season which has left the offense imbalanced as too reliant on the passing attack behind Baker Mayfield — so the potential absence of White is particularly concerning. Tampa Bay has not rushed for more than 81 yards in six straight games — and they have then played 18 of their last 24 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in four or more games in a row including playing Unders in seven of their last eight games Under the Total under those circumstances. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in five straight contests. The Buccaneers stay on the road where they have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight Unders on the road having lost two of their last three games. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Indianapolis only managed to generate 264 yards of offense two weeks ago against the Patriots defense. In their last three games with Gardner Minshew as their starting quarterback. the Colts are averaging just 277.7 total YPG which is resulting in only 21.3 PPG. Management released their veteran linebacker Shaq Leonard this week in a cost-cutting move made possible by the improved play of their younger players on their roster. Indy has allowed only 19 combined points in their last two games. The defense has produced 30 sacks this season from 12 different players — and they have 61 tackles for loss along with 65 hits on the quarterback which made Leonard’s contract expendable. Indianapolis has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 19 combined points were scored. They have played two Unders in a row — and they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They return home where they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 12 of their last 14 home games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams winning 40-49% of their games.

FINAL TAKE: The Colts have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total as the favorite — and the Buccaneers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (253) and the Indianapolis Colts (254). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami (OH) RedHawks (175) and the Ball State Cardinals (176). THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) (9-2) has won three games in a row after their 23-10 victory against Buffalo as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday. Ball State (4-7) has won three of their last four games after their 34-3 win against Kent State as a 10.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The RedHawks have already clinched their spot in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game next week against Toledo. They held the Bulls to just 278 yards last week — but they managed only 13 first downs while gaining 346 yards in the victory. Miami (OH) has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, the RedHawks have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit win against a MAC rival. They have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. Miami (OH) is favored in this game despite not having anything at stake — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total when favored. Ball State has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win by 28 or more points. They held the Golden Flashes to just 97 total yards in their victory last week. The Cardinals stay at home this week where they have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total — and they have played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Ball State has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total in November. The RedHawks have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after the first month of the season. 8* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Miami (OH) RedHawks (175) and the Ball State Cardinals (176). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kentucky Wildcats (147) and the Louisville Cardinals (148). THE SITUATION: Kentucky (6-5) has lost five of their last six games after their 17-14 loss at South Carolina as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. Louisville (10-1) has won four games in a row after their 38-31 upset win at Miami (FL) as a 1-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats held the Gamecocks to only 257 yards of offense last week — but they only managed 293 total yards in the three-point loss. Kentucky’s defense has been solid as they have held their last three opponents to just 307.0 total Yards-Per-Game — but they are only generating 272.7 total YPG in their last three games which is resulting in just 19.7 Points-Per-Game. The Wildcats have played 42 of their last 65 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total after a loss by seven points or less to an SEC rival including four straight Under in those circumstances. Kentucky has also played 6 straight games Under the Total on the road after a point-spread loss. Additionally, the Wildcats have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Kentucky will find it difficult to move the ball against this Cardinals defense. The Wildcats rank 71st in the nation Rushing Success Rate behind a mediocre offensive line that ranks 99th in Line Yards. Louisville ranks 17th in the nation in Opponent Rushing Success Rate Allowed fueled by a defensive line that ranks 6th in Line Yards. The Cardinals also rank 17th in Opponent Passing Success Allowed. Kentucky stays on the road where they are generating only 278.3 total YPG — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total on the road. Louisville has the ACC Championship Game on deck next week against Florida State. The Cardinals have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. And while they have scored at least 31 points in three straight games, they have then played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total after scoring 31 or more points in three or more games in a row. They did allow the Hurricanes to generate 7.47 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have then played 11 of their last 12 home games Under the Total after allowing 7.25 or more YPP. They return home where they have held their guests to just 277.8 total YPG which is resulting in only 12.5 PPG. The Cardinals have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total when favored in the 7.5-10 point range. Louisville does play at a methodical pace on offense to help keep their defense rested — they rank 100th in the nation in seconds-per-play. But the Cardinals rank only 91st in the FBS in Offensive Line Yards — and now they face this Kentucky defense that ranks 35th in the nation in Opponent Line Yards Allowed.

FINAL TAKE: The Wildcats have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points — and Louisville has played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 10 points including eight of those last ten circumstances. 25* College Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kentucky Wildcats (147) and the Louisville Cardinals (148). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (109) and the Seattle Seahawks (110). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (7-3) has won two games in a row after their 27-14 win against Tampa Bay as a 13.5-point favorite last Sunday. Seattle (6-4) has lost two of their last three games after a 17-16 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers held the Buccaneers to just 287 total yards last week to control that game. San Francisco has held seven of their opponents to less than 20 points — and their last three opponents have scored only 16.0 Points-Per-Game against them. The addition of defensive end Chase Young from Washington at the trade deadline gave them a second dynamic pass rusher to pair with Nick Bosa on the other side. The 49ers have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against Tampa Bay last week — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last contest. Quarterback Brock Purdy posted a perfect passer rating in the game by completing 21 of 25 passes for 333 yards last week — but the Niners have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after passing for 300 or more yards in their last contest. They generated 7.64 Yards-Per-Play in that game — but they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after averaging 7.0 or more YPP in their last contest. Now San Francisco goes back on the road where they score -2.3 fewer PPG than their season average — and they are only generating 346.6 total YPG on the road. The Niners have played 16 of their last 24 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 17 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. The 49ers have played 21 of their last 30 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, San Francisco has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday. Seattle only gained 291 total yards last week in their loss to the Rams. It looks like quarterback Geno Smith will give it a go tonight despite injuring his elbow late in that game last week. While he did manage to return to the action and lead the Seahawks to a potential game-winning field goal (Jason Myers missed the kick), it would not be terribly surprising if he was less than 100% in this game or got knocked out of the game against this now even better Niners pass rush. Seattle has only generated 310.3 total YPG in their last three games which has resulted in a 16.0 PPG scoring average — and they will be without starting running back Kenneth Walker III in this contest due to injury. The Seahawks' defense did hold Los Angeles to 267 total yards last week. Since getting Jamal Adams back from injury, they have held five of their last seven opponents to 20 or fewer points. Seattle has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 9 of their last 14 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. The Niners score 27.9 PPG — but the Seahawks have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams scoring 27 or more PPG. They have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Seattle has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total against NFC West rivals — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in November.

FINAL TAKE: The Seahawks have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog — and the 49ers have played 11 of their last 17 road games Under the Total when favored. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (109) and the Seattle Seahawks (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (107) and the Dallas Cowboys (108). THE SITUATION: Washington (4-7) lost for the fourth time in their last five games in a 31-19 upset loss at home against the New York Giants as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday. Dallas (7-3) won for the fourth time in their last five games with their 33-10 victory at Carolina as an 11-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Commanders generated 403 yards of offense last week — but it was six turnovers that did them in. Despite their losing run, the Washington offense is beginning to click under first-year offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy. In their last three games, the Commanders are generating 397.0 total Yards-Per-Game — and they are scoring a healthy 24.0  Points-Per-Game in their last four games despite only reaching 19 points last week. But the defense has been a disaster for Washington. They rank last in the NFL by allowing 27.7 PPG — and they have given up 29 or more points in three of their last four contests. They are 29th in the league by giving up 372.8 YPG — and that mark rises to 398.0 YPG when they are playing on the road. The biggest problem has been their secondary as the Commanders are giving up 259 passing YPG which is the third most in the NFL. Washington has played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total when playing with six days or less of rest. And while the Cowboys average 32:31 minutes per game in Time of Possession, the Commanders have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams who average 32 or more minutes per game with the football. Dallas has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point-spread win. The Cowboys are scoring 39.0 PPG in their last four games while reaching at least 33 points in three of those games. Quarterback Dak Prescott has produced a Passer Rating of 119 in his last five contests. The Dallas defense has held their last three opponents to just 217.0 total YPG in their last three games — but they have then played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after holding their last three opponents to 225.0 or fewer YPG. The Cowboys have benefited from facing a slate of mediocre quarterbacks: Daniel Jones (twice), Mac Jones, Bryce Young, Joshua Dobbs (with Arizona), and Zac Wilson. Sam Howell may remind everyone about the significant loss which was the season-ending injury to cornerback Trevor Diggs. Dallas returns home where they have played 13 of their last 20  home games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total when favored by 7.5 to 14 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and the Commanders have played 8 of their last 11 road games Over the Total with the Total set in that 42.5-49 point range. 10* NFL Washington-Dallas CBS-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (107) and the Dallas Cowboys (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (8-1) has won three games in a row after their 28-23 victory at home against Dallas as a 3-point favorite on November 5th. Kansas City (7-2) has won seven of their last eight contests after their 21-14 upset win against Miami in Germany on November 5th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles outlasted the Cowboys despite only gaining 292 total yards against them. With tight end Dallas Goedert out for this game with a forearm injury and Jalen Hurts dealing with a nagging knee injury, the Philly offense is not as powerful as the one that lost by a 38-35 score to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl last February 12th. The victory came on the heels of a 38-31 win at Washington the week prior — and the Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row against NFC East rivals by seven points or less. They were trailing at halftime by a 17-14 score to the Cowboys after going into halftime with a 17-10 deficit to the Commanders — and they have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total after allowing 17 or more points in the first half in two straight games. Furthermore, Philadelphia has played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored — and they have played 32 of their last 48 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where 50 or more combined points were scored. I suspect that head coach Nick Sirianni will want to win this game at the line of scrimmage with a dominating rushing attack. They are averaging 33:49 minutes per game on offense with them rushing the ball 32 times per game — and now they face a Kansas City run defense that ranks last in ESPN’s Run Stop Win Rate metric. With the Eagles’ tush-push nearly unstoppable, the game plan will be long drives with running plays acceptable on third down since Sirianni will going for it on fourth down. Philadelphia wants to wear down the Chiefs, keep Patrick Mahomes off the field, and send a strong statement about their physical toughness. On the road, the Eagles are holding their home hosts to just 304.2 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 19.2 Points-Per-Game. Philadelphia has played 7 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 45.5-49 point range. Kansas City only gained 267 yards in their victory against the Dolphins —but they contained that potent offense to just 292 total yards. The Chiefs’ defense has become elite — they lead the NFL by holding their opponents to 15.9 PPG and 288.2 total YPG. They lead the league by allowing only 176 passing YPG. They rank first in the NFL in both sacks and                               Quarterback Hits per Game (at 7). Kansas City has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. But they have struggled to get their run game going lately as they have not rushed for more than 96 yards in five straight games. By averaging only 3.7 Yards-Per-Carry in their last three games, the offense is getting off schedule and Mahomes is facing too many third-and-long situations. When Mahomes had Tyreek Hill as a weapon, he could overcome those circumstances — but his young wide receiving corps now is unreliable and drop too many passes. It is not a coincidence that the Chiefs have played all five of those games Under the Total because they cannot sustain drives — and they lack the explosiveness in their pass game now. Mahomes intended air yards per pass attempt is at a career low this season. Kansas City has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in two or more games in a row. They return home where they are holding their guests to 281.5 total YPG which is resulting in just 14.0 PPG. The Chiefs have played 11 of their last 14 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight those games Under the Total in November. They have also played 15 of their last 23 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. They have also played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams are coming off bye weeks. Head coach Andy Reid’s teams going back his tenure in Philadelphia have played 26 of their 33 games Under the Total after a bye week — and his Chiefs teams have played 12 of their 15 games Under the Total after a bye week. The Eagles have played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total after a bye week — and Sirianni’s teams have played 5 of their 6 games Under the Total against opponents winning 75% or more of their games. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (473) and the Denver Broncos (474). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-4) has won five games in a row after their 27-19 victory as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Denver (4-5) has won three games in a row after their 24-22 upset win at Buffalo as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: The Broncos followed up their upset victory against Kansas City by stunning the Bills on Monday Night Football despite getting outgained by -69 net yards in that game. The formula for success for head coach Sean Payton has been running the football, burning time off the clock with an opportunistic defense that has forced nine turnovers in their last four games. The Denver defense is playing better when not being asked to be on the field as long — they rank ninth in Defensive DVOA since Week Six according to the metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN). The Broncos have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after an upset victory. The Broncos have run the ball 40 and 38 times in each of the last two weeks. But what happens if that “Plan A” fails? The Vikings rank fifth in the NFL by holding their opponents to 3.7 rushing Yards-Per-Carry — and their last three opponents have averaged only 83 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Even during this three-game winning streak, Denver is generating only 293.0 total Yards-Per-Game. The Broncos are averaging only 309.2 YPG at home where they have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as a favorite of three points or loss. Minnesota followed up their upset victory on the road against Atlanta with their upset win at home against the Saints last week. The Vikings have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after pulling off two straight upset victories. And while they raced out to a 24-3 halftime lead last week, they have then played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after taking a halftime lead of 21 or more points in their last contest. Minnesota's improved play starts with their defense that just held the Saints to 280 total yards. They have held four of their last five opponents to under 20 points — and they rank eighth in Defensive DVOA for the entire season.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 8 straight Unders from Weeks 10 through 13. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (473) and the Denver Broncos (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (459) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (460). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (3-6) has lost four of their last five games after their 20-6 loss at Tampa Bay as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Jacksonville (6-3) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 34-3 loss to San Francisco as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Titans have scored only 22 combined points in their last two games with rookie Will Levis under center. They gained only 209 total yards last week against the Buccaneers defense. Tennessee has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. And while they covered the point spread only once in their last five games, they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. They stay on the road where they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and they have played 11 of their last 17 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Jacksonville has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points — and they have played 5 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. The Jaguars scored their lone field goal in the first half last week — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to score more than three points in the first half in the previous game. They have also played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. A -4 net turnover margin held Jacksonville back last week — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after enduring a -3 or worse net turnover margin in their last contest. They stay at home where they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Jacksonville has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in games played in November — and Tennessee has played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after the first month of the season. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (459) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (460). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (311) and the Baltimore Ravens (312). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (5-4) saw their four-game winning streak snapped in a 30-27 upset loss to Houston as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. Baltimore (7-3) had their four-game winning streak end in a 33-31 upset loss to Cleveland as a 6-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bengals' defense will have something to prove tonight after surrendering a whopping 544 yards of offense to the Texans last week. After finishing tied for fifth in the NFL last season by allowing 20.1 Points-Per-Game and ranking fifth in the league in Defensive DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN), the Cincinnati defense struggled earlier in the season when quarterback Joe Burrow was not 100% with his calf injury. The Bengals had held their previous three opponents to 18 or fewer points before rookie C.J. Stroud gashed them for 356 passing yards. But Cincinnati has played 29 of their last 39 games Under the Total on the road after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game — and they have played 37 of their last 52 road games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. They have also played 20 of their last 23 road games Under the Total after allowing 450 or more yards in their last game — and they have played 10 of their last 11 road games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. Additionally, the Bengals have played 6 straight Unders after a straight-up loss at home — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Cincinnati offense will not be at 100% tonight with wide receiver Tee Higgins out with a hamstring injury. Missing Higgins hurts because the Bengals are not getting enough from their running game — they have not rushed for more than 66 yards in their last two games which means that the Ravens' defense can focus on taking away wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase without getting burned too badly. Cincinnati has played 16 of their last 21 road games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 75 yards in two straight games. In their four road games this season, they are only generating 283.3 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 17.8 PPG. The Bengals have played 18 of their last 25 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 45 of their last 63 road games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Furthermore, Cincinnati has played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 12 of their last 14 road games Under the Total as a dog. Baltimore only gained 306 yards last week in their loss to the Bengals. The Ravens will be without their best offensive lineman with left tackle Ronnie Stanley out with a knee injury. Baltimore has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four contests. They have covered the point spread just once in their last three games — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. And while they have scored 31 or more points in four straight games, they have then played 41 of their last 62 games Under the Total after scoring 25 or more points in two or more games in a row. The Ravens will not probably not have cornerback Marlon Humphrey who is doubtful with a calf injury — but they still have cornerback Brandon Stephens to cover Chase.  They rank second in the NFL in Defensive DVOA — and they are holding their opponents to just 273.6 total YPG which is resulting in a mere 15.7 PPG. They stay at home where they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total at home when favored. Baltimore has also played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: This showdown is a rematch of the Ravens’ 27-24 upset win on the road against the Bengals as a 3-point underdog on September 17th — and Cincinnati has played 10 of their last 12 road games Under the Total when avenging a narrow loss by three points or less to their opponent. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (311) and the Baltimore Ravens (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (266) and the Denver Broncos (265). THE SITUATION:  Denver (3-5) has won two games in a row with their 24-9 upset win against Kansas City as a 7-point underdog back on October 29th. Buffalo (5-4) lost for the second time in their last three games after a 24-18 loss at Cincinnati as a 1.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Buffalo only managed 317 total yards last week on the road against the Bengals. Their defense allowed 397 total yards to Cincinnati who averaged 7.49 Yards-Per-Play. The Bills have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to generate 6.0 or more YPP. They did limit the Bengals to just 54 rushing yards — and they have played 9 of their last 14 Under the Total after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last contest. Buffalo’s run defense is playing better as they have held their last three opponents to just 3.6 Yards-Per-Carry — and they have not given up more than 96 rushing yards in three straight games. This run defense will be critical in slowing down the Broncos offense that has become run-first to compensate for the limitations of Russell Wilson at this point in his career. Wilson only attempted 19 passes against the Chiefs while running the ball 40 times. Denver has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 straight Unders after a double-digit upset win as an underdog getting six or more points. They have also played 6 straight Unders after a double-digit victory. The Broncos' focus on running the ball is helping their defense as well as they have not given up more than 19 points in their last three games. All three of those games finished Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. They have also played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. They had not scored more than 21 points in three straight games and four of their last five before that contest. They go back on the road where they are only generating 290.3 total YPG which is resulting in just 19.7 PPG. The Broncos have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 12 road games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 7 straight games Under the Total in Weeks 10-13 — and 6 of the last 8 games between these teams in Buffalo have finished Under the Total. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (266) and the Denver Broncos (265). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (263) and the Las Vegas Raiders (264). THE SITUATION: New York (4-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 27-6 loss at home to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. Las Vegas (4-5) ended their two-game losing streak with a 30-6 victory at home against the New York Giants as a 1-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These low-totals in the 30s deserve extra scrutiny since it does not take much to produce a game script that will lead to an Over. On the other hand, these college football Totals for Iowa in the 20s keep hitting — and the betting public is generally loathe to take Unders because they do not want to “root against scoring.” I like cashing winning tickets and can adjust my rooting interests accordingly (and what’s wrong with rooting for the defense?). My Reports are long because I am showing you (much, not all) of my work — and when weighing the evidence, the Under remains compelling. The Jets have not scored more than 20 points in six of their eight games — and they have only scored more than 23 points once this season. They only managed 270 total yards last week in their loss to the Chargers. What is worse — Zach Wilson or the New York battered offensive line? Either way, Wilson has been sacked at least four times in four straight games after the Chargers got to him eight times last week. In his last four games, Wilson is getting sacked every 7.8 pass plays — and he has only one touchdown over that span. They have scored only 19 combined points in their last two games — and they are generating 255.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games which is resulting in just 13.0 Points-Per-Game during that span. The Jets have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. They have played 5 straight Unders after winning three of their last four games. But the New York defense is keeping this team in the playoff hunt as they have held four of their opponents to 16 points or less. They are holding their opponents to 312.0 total YPG which is resulting in just 19.5 PPG — and their last three opponents to only 244.3 total YPG which is leading to 17.0 PPG. The Jets held Justin Herbert to just 136 passing yards last week and just 193 total yards to the Chargers. New York has played three straight Unders — and they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored. Las Vegas had great energy on defense under interim head coach Antonio Pierce — led by Maxx Crosby, they generated eight sacks while holding the Giants to only 277 total yards. The Raiders have held three of their last five opponents to no more than 17 points. In their four games at home, they have held their guests to just 288.5 total YPG which is resulting in 14.8 PPG. Las Vegas has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after a victory. But the Raiders offense is only producing 242.0 total YPG which has resulted in 18.7 PPG. Aidan O’Connell was solid taking over as the starting quarterback last week by completing 16 of 25 passes for a pedestrian 205 yards — but he is not likely to put up big numbers. Now he faces the toughest defense he has ever played against in his life — and he is taking sacks once in every 12 dropbacks. Las Vegas has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total in the second half of the season — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Jets have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (263) and the Las Vegas Raiders (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (263) and the Las Vegas Raiders (264). THE SITUATION: New York (4-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 27-6 loss at home to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. Las Vegas (4-5) ended their two-game losing streak with a 30-6 victory at home against the New York Giants as a 1-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These low-totals in the 30s deserve extra scrutiny since it does not take much to produce a game script that will lead to an Over. On the other hand, these college football Totals for Iowa in the 20s keep hitting — and the betting public is generally loathe to take Unders because they do not want to “root against scoring.” I like cashing winning tickets and can adjust my rooting interests accordingly (and what’s wrong with rooting for the defense?). My Reports are long because I am showing you (much, not all) of my work — and when weighing the evidence, the Under remains compelling. The Jets have not scored more than 20 points in six of their eight games — and they have only scored more than 23 points once this season. They only managed 270 total yards last week in their loss to the Chargers. What is worse — Zach Wilson or the New York battered offensive line? Either way, Wilson has been sacked at least four times in four straight games after the Chargers got to him eight times last week. In his last four games, Wilson is getting sacked every 7.8 pass plays — and he has only one touchdown over that span. They have scored only 19 combined points in their last two games — and they are generating 255.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games which is resulting in just 13.0 Points-Per-Game during that span. The Jets have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. They have played 5 straight Unders after winning three of their last four games. But the New York defense is keeping this team in the playoff hunt as they have held four of their opponents to 16 points or less. They are holding their opponents to 312.0 total YPG which is resulting in just 19.5 PPG — and their last three opponents to only 244.3 total YPG which is leading to 17.0 PPG. The Jets held Justin Herbert to just 136 passing yards last week and just 193 total yards to the Chargers. New York has played three straight Unders — and they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored. Las Vegas had great energy on defense under interim head coach Antonio Pierce — led by Maxx Crosby, they generated eight sacks while holding the Giants to only 277 total yards. The Raiders have held three of their last five opponents to no more than 17 points. In their four games at home, they have held their guests to just 288.5 total YPG which is resulting in 14.8 PPG. Las Vegas has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after a victory. But the Raiders offense is only producing 242.0 total YPG which has resulted in 18.7 PPG. Aidan O’Connell was solid taking over as the starting quarterback last week by completing 16 of 25 passes for a pedestrian 205 yards — but he is not likely to put up big numbers. Now he faces the toughest defense he has ever played against in his life — and he is taking sacks once in every 12 dropbacks. Las Vegas has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total in the second half of the season — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Jets have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (263) and the Las Vegas Raiders (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (253) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (254). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (3-5) has lost three of their last four games after their 20-16 loss at Pittsburgh as a 3-point underdog back on November 2nd. Tampa Bay (3-5) has lost four games in a row after their 39-37 loss at Houston as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Titans only rushed for 105 yards against the Steelers' defense last week with the offense relying on the arm of rookie quarterback Will Levis who passed for 262 yards. With this being his third NFL start, the initial book is being written on the former Kentucky QB — so he will likely experience some growing pains sooner rather than later as opposing defensive coaches discover his tendencies and weaknesses. Tennessee has not scored more than 16 points in five of their eight games this year — and they have failed to score more than 16 points in three of their last four contests. The Titans have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. They have not covered the point spread in three of their last four games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four contests. They stay on the road where they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total. Additionally, Tennessee has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Tampa Bay had not scored more than 18 points in three straight games before exploding for their highest-scoring output of the season. But the Buccaneers got torched by C.J. Stroud who broke a rookie quarterback passing record with 443 passing yards. Head coach Todd Bowles was embarrassed by the play of his defense — and he certainly worked his team and coaching staff hard this week to take care of business against another first-year QB this afternoon. Tampa Bay has a solid defense still that has held five of their opponents to 20 points or less. The Buccaneers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. They have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where 60 or more combined points were scored.  

FINAL TAKE: The Titans have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in November — and the Buccaneers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total in Weeks 10-13. 10* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (253) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (254). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Iowa State Cyclones (171) and the BYU Cougars (172). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (5-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 28-21 upset loss at home to Kansas as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. BYU (5-4) has lost three of their last four games after their 37-7 loss at West Virginia as a 12-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cyclones only managed 333 yards against the suspect Jayhawks defense last week. They have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss to a Big 12 rival — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after an upset loss to a conference rival. They have also played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss at home. The Cyclones did hold Kansas to just 74 rushing yards last week -- and they have played 16 of their last 22 road games Under the Total after not allowing more than 100 rushing yards in their last contest. Iowa State is a good defensive team that ranks in the top 40 in the nation in Opponent Quality Drives Allowed and Opponent Finishing Drives Allowed. They also rank 16th in the FBS in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. The Cyclones have held their last three opponents to just 293.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in just 18.7 Points-Per-Game. But Iowa State struggles to move the football as they are scoring just 21.8 PPG on the road. Freshman quarterback Rocco Becht has thrown seven interceptions which makes the passing attack unreliable. But the Cyclones running game ranks 131st in the nation in Success Rate — and they are last in the nation in Line Yards established by their offensive line. Iowa State also ranks 100th in Finishing Drives — so Red Zone chances should more often result in field goal attempts. The Cyclones only gained 75 rushing yards last week — and they have then played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 100 rushing yards in their last game. BYU only gained 243 total yards last week in scoring only seven points last week against the Mountaineers. Fifth-year quarterback Kedon Slovis missed that game with an arm injury that has him questionable for this contest. Junior college transfer Jake Retzlaff completed only 24 of 42 passes for 210 yards under center in his absence. In their last three games, the Cougars are generating only 282.0 total YPG which results in only 13.3 PPG. And while BYU has scored only a field goal in the first half of their last two games, they have played 25 of their last 35 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 7 points in the first half in two straight games. Furthermore, the Cougars have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a loss on the road by 21 or more points. BYU surrendered 567 total yards to West Virginia with 336 of those yards being gained on the ground — but they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after allowing 525 or more yards in their last game. They have also played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after giving up 275 or more yards in their last game. The Cougars do rank 37th in the nation in Opponent Finishing Drives Rate Allowed — and they come back home where they are allowing only 14.3 PPG with their 354.5 YPG allowed -56.4 net YPG below their season average overall.

FINAL TAKE: Iowa State has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in November — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the Total set at 42 or lower. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Iowa State Cyclones (171) and the BYU Cougars (172). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Panthers (113) and the Chicago Bears (114). THE SITUATION: Carolina (1-7) responded to their first victory of the season against Houston with a 27-13 loss at home to Indianapolis as a 1.5-point underdog last Sunday. Chicago (2-7) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-17 loss at New Orleans as a 10-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These Totals set in the 30s are dangerous — like the trouble that may triggered by uttering “Beetlejuice”, I fear even mentioning the two other units that can score touchdowns besides the offense. A non-offensive touchdown puts these Unders at severe risk — but the betting public knows that too. Frankly, these teams play a lot of Overs — and I considered the Over strongly. But the reason why these teams are playing so many higher-scoring games is because they have played some of the better offenses in the league. Both of these teams are improving on the defensive side of the ball. Carolina held the Texans to only 229 total yards of offense two weeks ago — just before C.J. Stroud then set a rookie record for passing yards last week when he torched a good Tampa Bay defense for 470 passing yards. They then held the Colts to just 198 total yards — but two Bryce Young interceptions were returned for touchdowns (not going to say Beetlejuice) in that contest to launch Indianapolis to 28 points. Young only had four interceptions going into that game — and the Panthers have just 11 turnovers on the season. Expect head coach Frank Reich to dial up a conservative game plan like he did in their 15-13 win against Houston. Carolina trailed by a 20-3 score at halftime against Indy — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to score more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. The Panthers have only covered the point spread once in their last six games — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after losing four of their last five games. The Carolina offense lacks weapons to help their rookie quarterback — they are generating only 265.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games which is generating 16.3 Points-Per-Game. I thought their offensive line would be a strength for them this season — but perhaps the season-ending bicep injury to left guard Brady Christensen early in the year has disproportionately impacted the cohesion of that unit. The Panthers are averaging only 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry despite investing in running back Miles Sanders as a free agent who had a 5.0 YPC average in his career during his time with Philadelphia. Not surprisingly, Young has been more effective at home where he is completing 68.9% of his passes with an 81.3 QBR. On the road, his completion percentage drops to 58.1% with a QBR of 72.2. His road 5.25 Yards-Per-Attempt compares to his meager 5.5 YPA mark when playing at home — Reich has him only dinking and dunking. The Bears' defense is starting to play better — they held the Saints to only 301 total yards last week in a losing effort. Chicago has held their last three opponents to just 296.0 total YPG which has resulted in 22.0 PPG. Some critics questioned the trading of a second-round draft pick for Washington defensive end Montez Sweat last week — but this team was starving for any semblance of a pass rush. They would not have made the deal if they were not confident they could sign Sweat to a contract extension — which quickly did. He offers them a good foundation for finally getting some “war daddies” on the defensive line. It’s a start. The Bears' run defense has already been solid — they are holding their opponents to 3.3 YPC which is resulting in just 80 rushing YPG. At home, their opponents are generating just 3.1 YPG and gaining a meter 68 rushing YPG. They have not allowed more than 97 rushing yards in six straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two or more games in a row. Chicago has also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread win. It was turnovers that did the Bears in last week with rookie Tyson Bagent throwing three picks and the Bears enduring a -5 net turnover margin. I like some things about the rookie from Shepard University who should have been drafted after his impressive Senior Bowl performance — but offensive coordinator Luke Getsy is limiting his passes down the field and opponents are getting a book on him now (and not getting fooled by an opening bomb in their first series as if that suggests the playbook is opening up). Chicago is going to focus on running the ball against a Panthers defense that is allowing 4.4 YPC and 132 rushing YPG. Al Michaels will be especially grumpy that his immense talent is wasted on calling a game between these with a collective 3-14 record (that’s $333K per win for his tonight’s wage) — but he will cheer up when discovering he will be early for his dinner reservations at Gene and Georgetti’s as this is going to be a quick game with fewer offensive possessions. The Bears have played 32 of their last 53 games Under the Total after a game where they had a -3 or worse turnover margin.

FINAL TAKE: Carolina has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total on Thursday nights. 20* NFL Carolina-Chicago Amazon Prime O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Carolina Panthers (113) and the Chicago Bears (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (475) and the New York Jets (476). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (3-4) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 30-13 win against Chicago as a 10-point favorite last Sunday night. New York (4-3) has won three games in a row with their 13-10 win as the technical road team against the New York Giants as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers might have played their best defensive game of the season last week by holding the Bears to just 295 total yards of offense. In theory, a defense that sports linebackers Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack along with safety Derwin James should be pretty good. They have held three of their last four opponents to 20 points or less. But the offense only scored 17 points in two straight games before taking advantage of the suspect Bears defense last week. This Los Angeles offense is banged up. Quarterback Justin Herbert is getting better but his left thumb is not 100% which impacts his ability to take snaps under center. Even worse, Herbert is missing two of his top three targets with wide receiver Mike Williams out the season and now Joshua Palmer on the injured list with a knee injury. That means more playing time for rookie wide receiver Quentin Johnston — but while he oozes with talent, he has struggled learning an NFL playbook after only running routes on one side of the field when starring at TCU. And don’t underestimate the impact of the loss of center, Corey Linsley, to a heart issue to this offense. The Chargers have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then played 6 straight Unders after not covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Los Angeles has also played 20 of their last 32 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football including their last four appearances. New York has played 15 of their last 19 home games Under the Total after a win by three points or less — and they have played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total after a win on the road by three points or less. The Jets won their previous game by a 20-14 score against Philadelphia — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row by six points or less. They had covered the point spread in three straight games before their push last week — and they have played 6 straight Unders after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. New York has an outstanding defense that ranks seventh in Defensive DVOA according to the metrics at Football Outsiders (now at FTN). With cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed, the Jets can slow down Keenan Allen and force Herbert to use his targets that were fourth or lower on the depth chart in training camp. They are allowing only 17.0 Points-Per-Game at home — and they have held their last three opponents to 283.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in only 15.0 PPG. But the offense remains limited with Zach Wilson under center. They have not scored more than 20 points in five of their seven games — and they have scored 13 or fewer points thee times. They are last in the NFL with only 102 first downs on the season. New York has played 5 of their last 6 games at home Under the Total —  and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total at home as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Jets have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams winning 40-49% of their games —  and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (475) and the New York Jets (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (473) and the Cincinnati Bengals (474). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (5-3) has won three games in a row after their 24-18 win against Tampa Bay as a 10-point favorite last Sunday. Cincinnati (4-3) is also on a three-game winning streak after their 31-17 upset win at San Francisco as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bills are only averaging 21.0 Points-Per-Game since Week Five — and quarterback Josh Allen is dealing with a bum shoulder going into this game. Allen did pass for 324 yards in the game — but his team has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a game where they passed for 300 or more yards. Buffalo’s defense stepped up last week by holding the Buccaneers to just 302 total yards — and Tampa Bay only got to 18 points from a fortunate fourth down play late in that game (that ruined our Bills play against the spread). While the Buffalo defense is dealing with injuries to Matt Milano and Tre’Davious White, they are still effective on that side of the field this season. They are holding their opponents to just 326.1 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in 17.0 Points-Per-Game. They have held their last three opponents to 327.7 total YPG and 18.7 PPG which takes into account their defensive injuries. The Bills have also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. They go back on the road where they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total. Additionally, they have played 7 straight road games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher — and they have played 7 straight road games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Furthermore, Buffalo has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total during Weeks Five through Nine. Cincinnati certainly has their mojo back on offense after Joe Burrow was dealing with a nagging calf injury from the summer. But while the Bengals are scoring 27.3 PPG with Burrow putting up big numbers, they are only generating 331.3 total YPG during that span. It is in big games like this where the loss of running back Samaje Perine in the offseason in free agency may reveal itself. Burrow’s return to full health has helped take some pressure off the Cincinnati defense — they have held their last three opponents to 16.7 PPG. The Bengals return home where they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the Total set at 45 or higher. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Toal with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. They have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams winning 60-75% of their games. Furthermore, Cincinnati has played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total with the Total set in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total when hosting the Bills. 20* NFL Cincinnati-Buffalo NBC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (473) and the Cincinnati Bengals (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (471) and the Philadelphia Eagles (472). THE SITUATION: Dallas (5-2) has won three of their last four games after their 43-30 victory against the Los Angeles Rams as a 7-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (7-1) has won two games in a row with their 38-31 win at Washington as a 7-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Dallas comes off perhaps their best game of the season where they gained 24 first downs and had their offense on the field for 35:28 minutes. Controlling the time of possession will be the formula for success against the Eagles to keep the Cowboys' defense fresh — this is the expressed reason why head coach Mike McCarthy parted ways with previous offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to take over the play-calling himself. As it is, Dallas has played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total after a game where they gained 24 or more first downs and held on to the football for at least 34 minutes. The Cowboys have generated 6.45 Yards-Per-Play and 6.10 YPP in their last two games — but they have then played 24 of their last 34 games Under the Total after averaging 6.0 or more in two straight games. Dallas has scored 30 or more points in all three of their games at home — but it has been a different story on the road. They scored two non-offensive touchdowns in their opening 40-0 win in New York against the Giants — but they have only scored 56 combined points in their next three games on the road.  But this stout Cowboys defense should have something to prove after giving up 40 points in San Francisco a few weeks ago. Dallas ranks third in the NFL in Defensive DVOA according to the metrics at Football Outsiders (now residing at FTN). They have not allowed more than 92 rushing yards in their last two games — and they have then played 38 of their last 57 games Under the Total on the road after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. Philadelphia has played 21 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a game where both teams scored 30 or more points — and they have played 24 of their last 33 games Under the Total after a game on the road where both teams scored at least 24 points. The Eagles have also played 17 of their last 23 home games Under the Total after a win against a division rival by seven points or less. Additionally, Philadelphia has played 40 of their last 62 games Under the Total after scoring 35 or more points in their last game. And while the Eagles gave up 472 total yards to the Commanders last week, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more yards.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has played 9 of their last 10 games in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (471) and the Philadelphia Eagles (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (451) and the Kansas City Chiefs (452). THE SITUATION: Miami (6-2) has won three of their last four games after their 31-17 victory against New England as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (6-2) had their six-game winning streak snapped in a 24-9 loss at Denver as a 7-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Deutsche Bank Park in Frankfurt, Germany.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Patrick Mahomes was under the weather last week which goes a long way to explain why he completed only 24 of 38 passes for 241 yards and the Chiefs managed to score only nine points against the Broncos' defense that was torched by the Dolphins for 70 points. But the Kansas City offense has not been as efficient this season even before that game. Besides tight end Travis Kelce, the wide receiving corps has not been reliable since they are dropping too many passes in a trend that started in their opening game against Detroit. The Chiefs have scored 23 or fewer points in five of their eight games. Look for Kansas City to attempt to get their running game going to slow down the Miami offense and keep them off the field after failing to rush for 96 yards in four straight games. The Chiefs have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to rush for more than 99 yards in two or more games in a row. They have also played four of their last five games Under the Total when coming off a game that finished Under the Total. Additionally, they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in November. Kansas City can afford to slow this game down because they have the best defensive unit in the Patrick Mahomes era. They have not allowed more than 24 points all season — and they have held six of their eight opponents to 20 or fewer points. The Defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders (now housed at FTN) rank the Chiefs' defense as the fifth best in the league. They rank second in the league by holding their opponents to just 287.8 Yards-Per-Game. They held the Broncos to just 87 passing yards last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. Kansas City also ranks second in the league in sacks — and pressure on the Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa is the way to slow down the Miami offense. Tagovailoa has only won once in his seven games in the NFL when sacked four or more times. Don’t be surprised if head coach Mike McDaniel leans heavily on the running game against this Chiefs defense playing without injured linebackers Nick Bolton and Willie Gay. The Dolphins have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. They held the Patriots to just 141 passing yards last week — and they have played 33 of their last 51 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. The Miami defense will be ready for this showdown with this being the healthiest they have been on that side of the ball all season. It will be interesting to see what defensive coordinator Vic Fangio dials up — especially with a healthy cornerback Jalen Ramsey. The Dolphins have held five of their eight opponents to 21 or fewer points. Miami has played  13 of their last 21 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. They have also played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The Frankfurt weather may not agree with those expecting a shootout in this game — the temperature is in the 50s but with winds at 16 miles per hour and a good chance of some rain (not great for the Chiefs' already slippery hands). The Dolphins have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total on a neutral field — and Kansas City has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on grass. 10* NFL Miami-Kansas City Germany O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (451) and the Kansas City Chiefs (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (309) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (310). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (3-4) ended their two-game losing streak with their 28-23 upset victory at home against Atlanta as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Pittsburgh (4-3) had their two-game winning streak snapped after their 20-10 loss to Jacksonville as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Titans will be sending out a rookie quarterback in his second career game in Tennessee’s Will Levis tonight. The former Kentucky quarterback played well against a Falcons defense that seemed unprepared for his strong arm — he completed 19 of 29 passes for 238 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions. DeAndre Hopkins caught three of those touchdown passes but he is dealing with a toe injury that may limit his effectiveness tonight. Levis will be playing against the best defense he faced in this Steelers unit led by T.J. Watt. The Titans only manage to generate 240.0 YPG on the road which is resulting in just 12.5 PPG. Tennessee has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset win as a home underdog. They go back on the road where they have played 5 straight Unders. The Titans have also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total against AFC opponents. Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett was knocked out of the game last week with a rib injury — but he is off the injury report and plans to play tonight. The Steelers offense has been maligned all season for its direction under offensive coordinator Matt Canada. Canada seems reluctant to take the training wheels off this offense like using wide receivers in a motion to attempt to make things more difficult on opposing defenses. Neither Pickett nor Trubisky had the authority to audible at the line of scrimmage last season — despite both having experience changing plays in their previous stops. Schematically, the Steelers' offense is simply not difficult to defend. The Pittsburgh defense keeps them competitive — they rank as the ninth-best defensive unit in the NFL according to the Defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. In their last three games, they have held their opponents to only 15.7 Points-Per-Game. The Steelers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss by 10 or more points — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Pittsburgh stays at home where they have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Tennessee has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when the Total is listed in the 35.5-42 point range. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (309) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (279) and the Detroit Lions (280). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (3-4) had won two games in a row before their 30-12 upset loss at home to Chicago as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Detroit (5-2) was on a four-game winning streak before their 38-6 loss at Baltimore as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Raiders have not scored more than 21 points all season — and they have failed to score more than 17 points in all but two of their games. One of the things I realized in my epic fail in taking the Las Vegas-Green Bay Over three weeks ago is that head coach Josh McDaniels does not have much confidence in his offense. Even in the first half, McDaniels was instructing quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to burn the play clock close to zero on each play on offense. McDaniels probably does not have much faith in his defense either — so keeping that unit as fresh as possible is a priority. The Raiders' game plan will likely be to slow the game down, keep things close, and perhaps Garoppolo and Davante Adams can steal this game. Las Vegas did hold the Bears to only 323 yards last week — and one of the Bears touchdowns was from a 39-yard interception returned for a touchdown. Garoppolo did not play last week but he has been cleared to play this week. He has to cut down on his turnovers — he has already thrown eight interceptions which has played a big role in the Raiders’ ranking last in the league with a -10 net turnover margin. They suffered a -3 net turnover margin last week — and Las Vegas has played 5 straight games Under the Total after posting a -3 or worse net turnover margin. They have also played 17 of their last 23 road games Under the Total after a game where they had a -3 or worse net turnover margin. This would be a great time for Las Vegas to get running back Josh Jacobs going — and while the Lions have been surprisingly good against defending the run this season, the Ravens perhaps exposed them by rushing for 146 yards last week. While I think the Detroit run defense is improved from the group that ranked 29th in the NFL last season, I think their current number two ranking in rushing Yards-Per-Game allowed speaks more to their opponents' rushing abilities and their abandoning the run given the game script or success in the passing game. As it is, the Raiders have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. They have also played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last contest. Las Vegas ran the ball only 14 times for 39 yards against the Bears — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after failing to rush for 50 or more yards. And while they got outgained by 134 net rushing yards last week, they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after getting outrushed by -75 or more yards. Detroit has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss by 10 or more points — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They did not score in the first half against the Ravens — and they have played 6 straight Unders after failing to score more than three points in the first half of their last game. The Lions are dealing with a host of injuries on both sides of the ball. The offensive line is a strength of this team — but they are missing starting left guard Jonah Jackson and center Frank Ragnow for this game. Running back David Montgomery is also out who has been serving as their bell cow back. They are only scoring 22.7 PPG in their last three games. Detroit allowed a whopping 503 yards last week with Baltimore generating 9.15 Yards-Per-Play — but they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 6.5 or more YPP in their last game. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. And in their last 12 games against teams from the AFC, Detroit has played 8 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Las Vegas has played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with the number set in the 45.5-49 point range. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (279) and the Detroit Lions (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (277) and the Los Angeles Chargers (278). THE SITUATION: Chicago (2-5) won for the second time in their last three games with a 30-12 upset victory against Las Vegas as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles (2-4) has lost two games in a row with their 31-17 loss at Kansas City as a 6-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears only gained 323 yards against the Raiders — but they held them to just 335 yards while posting a +3 net turnover margin. Chicago has found a winning formula by running the football which is helping their keep their defense fresh. The Bears have not allowed more than 20 points in three straight games — their last three opponents are generating only 281.0 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 17.0 Points-Per-Game. Not coincidentally, they have run the ball at least 31 times in four straight contests which is helping them burn time off the clock. In their last three games, they are averaging 33:07 minutes per game on offense after posting a 34:06 time of possession mark against the Raiders last week. This will be the strategy against the Chargers’ Justin Herbert — especially with a rookie quarterback under center playing in his first road game. Tyson Bagent did everything that was asked of him last week in his first professional start by completing 21 of 29 passes with a touchdown and no interceptions. But a deeper look at those numbers indicates that the former Shepherd College quarterback averaged just 2.0 air yards per pass attempt — and his longest pass was only 15 air yards. He only passes for 162 yards overall for a meager 7.71 yards per completion average. Offensive coordinator Luke Getsy had the element of surprise in his favor last week against Las Vegas — but now the Chargers will have game tape and it will be clear to everyone that they can stuff the box while playing press coverage against the Bears’ wide receivers to dare the rookie to throw the ball downfield. Bagent has potential — he made a very good impression in the Senior Bowl and should have been drafted. He had offers to transfer to an FBS program but elected to stay loyal to Shepherd College and bet on his talent. Good for him! But this will be the first time he plays in a hostile environment in a football stadium of more than 20,000 (OK, granted, it’s SoFi Stadium where Bears fans might outnumber Chargers fans — but this is new territory and Chicago is not likely to “Let Tyson Cook” in these circumstances). The Los Angeles defense has been a major disappointment under head coach Brandon Staley — but they are getting burned mostly in the passing game where they rank last in the league by allowing 310 passing YPG. The Chargers are a solid defensive team against the run as they hold opposing rushers to just 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry — and they rank 10th in the NFL by holding their opponents to 96.8 rushing YPG. With Justin Fields out again this week, the Bears are going to focus on the road — and that plays into the strength of the LA defense that will feel comfortable having their safeties creep into the box. As it is, Chicago has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Bears have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after an upset victory by 14 or more points. Don’t be surprised if the Chargers run the ball more tonight to take the pressure off of Herbert who is struggling lately. After passing for 939 yards with six touchdown passes and no interceptions in his first three games this season, he has only thrown for 650 yards in his last three games with a surprisingly low 57% completion percentage with four touchdown passes but four interceptions. Los Angeles is scoring generating 311.7 total YPG in their last three games which is resulting in only 19.3 PPG. But on the plus side, the Chargers are allowing 22.7 PPG in those three games — a drop of -3.1 PPG from their season average.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears have only played one Under this season — but the likely limitations on Bagent will impact the game script of this contest. Los Angeles has played a decisive 61 of their last 100 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. And after allowing 7.67 Yards-Per-Play last week, the Chargers have played 50 of their last 77 home games Under the Total after allowing 6.0 or more YPP in their last game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (277) and the Los Angeles Chargers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (257) and the Washington Commanders (258). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (6-1) comes off a 31-17 win against Miami as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Washington (3-4) has lost four of their last five contests after their 14-7 upset loss at New York against the Giants as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Commanders only managed to gain 273 yards against the Giants’ defense last week. They have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. Washington went into halftime of that game without a point and trailing by 14 points — and they have then played 41 of their last 65 games Under the Total after going into halftime trailing by 14 or more points. Additionally, the Commanders have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last contest. Washington has allowed 403.0 Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — but they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more YPG in their last three contests. Their defense is getting to the quarterback — they have registered at least three sacks in four straight games. The Commanders return home where they have played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total — and they have played 28 of their last 41 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Philadelphia held the explosive Dolphins offense to just 244 total yards last week. They have not allowed more than 249 yards in three straight games — and they have then played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 250 total yards in two or more games in a row. The Eagles have also played 8 of their last 13 road games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played on October 1st with Philadelphia winning by a 34-31 score — and the Commanders have played 27 of their last 42 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by three points or less. 8* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (257) and the Washington Commanders (258). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (109) and the Buffalo Bills (110). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (3-3) has lost two games in a row after their 16-13 upset loss to Atlanta as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Buffalo (4-3) has lost two games in a row after their 29-25 upset loss at New England as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneers only gained 329 total yards against the Falcons last week. They are only generating 297.7 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 17.2 Points-Per-Game this season. They rank just 24th in Offensive DVOA using the advanced metrics at Football Outsiders. Tampa Bay’s problems begin with their lack of a rushing game — they are only averaging 78 Rushing YPG with a 3.1 Yards-Per-Carry average. The season-ending injury to center Ryan Jensen really hurt an offensive line that was already in a precarious state after they did not resign left tackle Donovan Smith and right guard Shaq Mason in the offseason. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has been resilient — but he is being asked to bail the team out too often on third down. The Buccaneers' defense is solid — they are only allowing 17.3 PPG and they rank 12th in the league in Defensive DVOA. Tampa Bay has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road after a straight-up loss. Buffalo only gained 339 total yards in their loss on the road to the Patriots last week. Offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey has been a significant drop-off as a play-caller and leader of the offense from previous OC Brian Daboll. This offense is too dependent on big plays — but the explosiveness with this offense has declined perhaps because Dorsey's reliance on 11 personnel (with three wide receivers) is too predictable. The Bills are scoring 19.7 PPG in their last three games. Don’t be surprised if Buffalo commits to running the football early in this game. I suspect this was a mandate from head coach Sean McDermott at halftime the previous week in their Sunday night game against the New York Giants when they rallied from a 6-0 halftime deficit to win the game by a 14-9 score. The ability to execute long drives was very encouraging for this team long-term — but going into half-time trailing by a 13-3 score to the Patriots last week led them to abandon their running game behind bruising running back Latavius Murray. Buffalo averages 31 rushing attempts per game at home as opposed to 23 rushes on the road — and their 138 rushing YPG at home helps them average 33:01 minutes per game on offense McDermott needs to address his side of the ball after Mac Jones passed for 272 yards with the struggling New England offense generating 364 total yards against them. The Bills defense is banged up with the loss of cornerback Tre’Davious White and linebacker Matt Milano being the most impactful. But the Buffalo defense simply needs to execute better — and facing a one-dimensional offense should help this week. While the Patriots averaged 6.74 Yards-Per-Play last week, the Bills have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after allowing 6.0 or more YPP in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total as a favorite

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in Weeks Five through Nine — and they have played 33 of their last 54 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (109) and the Buffalo Bills (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Syracuse Orange (111) and the Virginia Tech  Hokies (112). THE SITUATION: Syracuse (4-3) has lost three games in a row after their 41-3 loss at Florida State as a 19-point underdog on October 14th. Virginia Tech (3-4) has won two of their last three games with their 30-13 win against Wake Forest as a 1-point favorite on October 14th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Syracuse only managed 261 total yards in their loss to the Seminoles. They have only scored 24 combined points in their last three games. While they faced the difficult part of their schedule against Clemson, North Carolina, and then Florida State, this was an offense that ranked just 75th in the FBS by averaging 374.8 total Yards-Per-Game last season with Garrett Shrader under center. The senior completed only 9 of 21 passes for 99 yards last week. The Orange have played 30 of their last 44 games Under the Total after a loss to an ACC rival by 21 or more points. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against ACC rivals — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total as an underdog. Virginia Tech held the Demon Deacons to just 262 total yards in their 17-point victory last week. After ranking 55th in the FBS last season by allowing 370.4 total YPG, they have improved on that side of the ball by holding their opponents to 341.6 total YPG. In their four games at home, they have held their four guests to only 314.3 total YPG which has resulted in 18.8 PPG. The Hokies have played 6 of their last 9 home games Under the Total. They outgained Wake Forest by +200 net yards as well — and they have played 18 of their last 25 home games Under the Total after outgaining their previous opponent by +225 net yards. Furthermore, Virginia Tech has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Hokies have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 8* CFB Syracuse-Virginia Tech ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Syracuse Orange (111) and the Virginia Tech Hokies (112). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (473) and the Minnesota Vikings (474). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (5-1) had their five-game winning streak snapped in their 19-17 upset loss at Cleveland as an 8.5-point road favorite last Sunday. Minnesota (2-4) has won two of their last three games with their 19-13 victory at Chicago on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Injuries and losing the time of possession battle played a significant role in the 49ers' upset loss last week with both Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey being knocked out of that game against the Browns. Samuel is out tonight — but McCaffrey is expected to play. San Francisco’s offense was only on the field for 26:57 minutes in that contest — but that unit should win the time of possession battle tonight against a Vikings team that does not run the ball. The 49ers had scored at least 30 points in five straight games before confronting the tough Cleveland defense that may be the best in the NFL. San Francisco has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total between Week Five through Week Nine. They have also played 14 of their last 22 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Minnesota has played 13 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a win by six points or less. Additionally, the Vikings have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win against an NFC North rival. They have also played 15 of their last 17 games Over the Total after winning two of their last three games. Minnesota only rushed for 46 yards last week after rushing for 70 yards the previous week in their loss to Kansas City. They have not run the ball more than 24 times in any game this season — and they have rushed the ball 18 times or less in three of their games. Overall, they are averaging only 19 rushing attempts per game which is translating to their offense being on the field for only 26:14 minutes per game — and that means both teams will likely have more possessions in this game. The Vikings have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after failing to rush for more than 75 yards in their last game — and they have played 5 straight Overs after not rushing for 100 or more yards in two straight contests. Minnesota’s offense has scored at least 17 points all their games this season — and wide receiver K.J. Osborn has played well stepping up for the injured Justin Jefferson. But the Vikings are surrendering 25.0 Points-Per-Game. Minnesota returns home where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-45 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have played 7 straight games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (473) and the Minnesota Vikings (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (471) and the Philadelphia Eagles (472). THE SITUATION: Miami (5-1) has won two games in a row with their 41-21 victory against Carolina as a 14-point favorite on Sunday. Philadelphia (5-1) saw their five-game winning streak snapped in a 20-14 upset loss in New York against the Jets last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Miami flexed their muscles on both sides of the ball last week as they gained 444 yards en route to their 41 points while holding the Panthers to just 296 yards of offense. The Dolphins have played 16 of their last 23 home games Under the Total after a win at home by 21 or more points. Additionally, they have played 15 of their last 19 road games Under the Total after scoring 35 or more points — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring 40 or more points. Miami has played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Furthermore, they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where 60 or more combined points were scored. The Dolphins won their previous game by a 31-16 score at home against the New York Giants — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row by 14 or points. Turnovers have been an issue for this team as they have lost the turnover battle in three straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a -1 or worse net turnover margin in two or more games in a row. Philadelphia has played 28 of their last 42 home games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. The Eagles have only covered the point spread once in their last three games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Philly has held their last two opponents to 244 and 239 total yards — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after holding two straight opponents to no more than 250 total yards.

FINAL TAKE: The temperature is expected to be in the 40s tonight with winds in the 15 miles per hour range which will impact Tagovailoa’s deep shots. Miami scored 24 and 20 points in their games at New England and Buffalo this season — with their other four games either at home or in sunny Los Angeles in early September. The Eagles will certainly get their ground game going to burn the clock and keep the explosive Dolphins offense off the field. Philadelphia has played 40 of their last 60 home games Under the Total played in October. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (471) and the Philadelphia Eagles (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (311) and the New Orleans Saints (312). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (4-2) has won three games in a row with their 37-20 win at home against Indianapolis as a 4-point favorite on Sunday. New Orleans (3-3) has lost three of their last four games after their 20-13 upset loss at Houston as a 2-point favor last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Jacksonville only gained 233 yards on offense last week against the Colts — and now quarterback Trevor Lawrence is questionable with a knee injury. He is expected to play — but it will be even better for us if backup C.J. Beathard ends up the starter on a short week. Even if Lawrence does play, he will be limited — and his mobility in avoiding the pass rush has played an integral part during their current three-game winning streak. The Jaguars managed only 148 net passing yards last week — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after failing to pass for more than 150 yards in their last game. And while they have covered the point spread in four of their six games this season, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. The defense is playing better under defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell this season — they rank eighth in the NFL in the Defensive DVOA metrics by the Football Outsiders. But the offensive line remains an issue — and that unit will be without starting left tackle Walker Little with a knee injury and right guard Brandon Scherff is questionable with an ankle. Lawrence continues to develop — but he may not be able to continue to bail out his offensive line given that knee injury on a short week. Wide receiver Zay Jones is also out for this game due to injury. New Orleans held the Texans to just 297 yards last week in their loss. After holding their final ten opponents last season to just 14.5 PPG, the New Orleans defense seems legit. They rank seventh in the NFL using the tempo-free Defensive DVOA metrics by Football Outsiders. They are holding their opponents to just 278.3 total YPG which is resulting in only 16.0 PPG. The Saints have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They return home where they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range.

FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (311) and the New Orleans Saints (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (277) and the Los Angeles Chargers (278). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 42-10 loss at San Francisco as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles (2-2) moved to .500 this season with a 24-17 victory against Las Vegas as a 7-point favorite two weeks ago on October 1st.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dallas defense will have something to prove tonight after getting shredded by the 49ers who gained 421 yards against them. The Cowboys have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total after a loss on the road by 14 or more points. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. And while the 49ers generated 6.4 Yards-Per-Play against them, they have then played 10 straight games Under the Total on the road after allowing 6.0 or more YPP. Dallas is dealing with some injuries on defense with cornerback Trevon Diggs out the season and middle linebacker Leighton Vander Esch out tonight with a neck injury. But they still have Micah Parsons — and this unit coached by Dan Quinn ranks fifth in the league in Defensive DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders. No one has slowed down that San Francisco offense outside some bad weather and an injury to Christian McCaffrey. They go back on the road where they are only generating 292.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in just 22.0 Points-Per-Game. They rank just 20th in the NFL in Offensive DVOA. The Cowboys have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 12 road games Under the Total when favored. Los Angeles has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Quarterback Justin Herbert completed only 13 of 24 passes for just 167 yards with a touchdown and an interception. The Chargers offense misses wide receiver Mike Williams who is out the season with a torn ACL. Herbert is also dealing with a fractured left finger which will require a splint which will make his ability to take snaps under center. Their offense may have to operate mostly in the shotgun which will limit their versatility in their running game. This potential liability will be something both Quinn and Parsons can exploit. Los Angeles only gained 305 total yards last week — but they held the Raiders to just 264 total yards. The Chargers have played 58 of their last 96 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And while Dallas scores 26.8 PPG, Los Angeles has played 47 of their last 74 home games Under the Total against teams who score 24 or more PPG. Furthermore, the Chargers have played all 3 of their games on Monday Night Football Under the Total under head coach Brandon Staley.

FINAL TAKE: One of the subplots of this game will be Dallas head coach Mike McCarthy versus his former offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays for Los Angeles. McCarthy took over the play-calling for Moore because he wanted more emphasis on the running game — so expect that to happen tonight since it will keep  Herbert off the field. (and maybe Moore rebels by running the ball more tonight as well with Austin Ekeler healthy again). As it is, the Cowboys have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 20* NFL Dallas-LA Chargers ABC-TV/ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (277) and the Los Angeles Chargers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (275) and the Buffalo Bills (276). THE SITUATION: New York (1-4) has lost three games in a row after their 31-16 loss at Miami as a 13-point underdog on Sunday. Buffalo (3-2) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last Sunday in a 25-20 upset loss to Jacksonville as a 5.5-point favorite in their game in London.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bills should make a statement with their defense tonight. That got embarrassed last week in their loss to the Jaguars who gained 474 yards against them. Despite that yardage, Buffalo still ranks fifth in the NFL in the Defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders — and now they have           Von Miller back from injury to bolster their pass rush. The Bills have held two of their opponents to just three and ten points. They held their opponents to 17.9 Points-Per-Game last year which was the second-lowest mark in the league. Buffalo has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. And while Josh Allen led the offense to 388 total yards last week, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining 375 or more yards in their last contest. The Bills have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total between Weeks Five through Nine — and the Giants have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing in Weeks Five through Nine. New York has played 6 straight games Under the Total after a loss on the road by 14 or more points. The Giants have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. And while they have not scored more than 16 points in their last three games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 17 points in two straight games. Running back Saquon Barkley is one of their lone difference makers on offense — and he remains a game-time decision with the ankle injury that has kept him out. Daniel Jones is out leaving the quarterbacking duties to backup Tyrod Taylor. Tight end Darren Waller is questionable. The offensive line is an absolute mess with at least starters Andre Thomas and John Michael Schmitz out — and several others are banged up and listed as questionable. The defense is allowing 30.6 PPG. They stay on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-45 point range.

FINAL TAKE: New York has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as a double-digit underdog — and Buffalo has played 3 of their last 4 home games Under the Total when laying 14.5 to 21 points. 20* NFL NY Giants-Buffalo NBC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (275) and the Buffalo Bills (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (251) and the Tennessee Titans (252). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (3-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 17-10 upset loss at Pittsburgh as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. Tennessee (2-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 23-16 upset loss at Indianapolis as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Turnovers did the Ravens in last week as they turned the ball over three times and endured a -2 net turnover margin. Baltimore has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last three games, they have then played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total. The Ravens have not allowed more than 93 rushing yards in their last two contests — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. This Baltimore defense has been outstanding since they acquired linebacker Roquan Smith from Chicago at the trade deadline last season. They are second in the NFL this season by allowing only 15.0 Points-Per-Game — and they are also second in the league by giving up 266.4 total Yards-Per-Game and 3.9 Yards-Per-Play. They lead the NFL in passing YPG allowed — and they are fourth in the league in touchdowns allowed per Opponent Red Zone Trip. Their 18 sacks are the second most in the NFL. Using the Defensive DVOA metrics by Football Outsiders, the Ravens have the second-best defense. But they are only scoring 21.8 Points-Per-Game this season with the offensive production dropping a bit this season under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken — although wide receiver drops are not helping the cause. Baltimore has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 8 straight Unders when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Tennessee has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. They have played three straight Unders — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing two straight Unders. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. And while the Titans allowed the Colts to average 7.15 Yards-Per-Play, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 6.5 or more YPP. Tennessee is only allowing 18.6 PPG this season — their problems are on the other side of the ball. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill has only two touchdown passes this season — he is averaging a touchdown pass every 71 throws. Running back Derrick Henry has only one game where he rushed for more than 100 yards. Wide receiver Treylon Burks remains out with a knee injury. This is an offense that lacks young playmakers to complement their aging veterans. They are scoring only 17.6 PPG while averaging just 293.6 YPG. The Titans have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total after the first month of the season — and Baltimore has played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after the first month of the season. 10* NFL Baltimore-Tennessee London Calling O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (251) and the Tennessee Titans (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Stanford Cardinal (123) and the Colorado Buffaloes (124). THE SITUATION: Stanford (1-4) has lost four games in a row after their 42-6 loss to Oregon as a 27-point underdog on September 30th. Colorado (4-2) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 27-24 win at Arizona State as a 3-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cardinal have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss by 35 or more points. They have also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after losing four games in a row. Additionally, Stanford has played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after a game where they did not score more than nine points. The Cardinal has not scored more than 23 points during their losing streak after opponents got the game tape on first-year head coach Troy Taylor’s offense. My biggest question for this team in my offseason deep dive on them regarded the realistic expectations for Troy Taylor taking over a Cardinal program after 16 seasons where their head coach was Jim Harbaugh or David Shaw. Except for the 2020 COVID season, the team had three straight losing seasons under Shaw, which was losing steam after his dozen years as the head coach. But does Shaw and his coaching staff deserve the brunt of that blame — or is it just increasingly difficult to enjoy success at an academic powerhouse like Stanford in the ever-evolving college football landscape? Taylor is considered an offensive wizard with his stretch Air Raid schemes after previously serving as the offensive coordinator at Eastern Washington and Utah before taking the head coaching job at Sacramento State. But the Cardinal are never going to play the transfer portal heavy — and they return only six starters from last year’s group that finished 3-9. The offense has struggled after playing their best game to begin the season against the Rainbow Warriors. They are only generating 329.0 Yards-Per-Game in their last four games — and they rank 126th in Quality Drive Rate measuring drives of at least ten plays that gain at least 50 yards and burn at least three minutes off the clock. The defensive numbers look bad with Stanford giving up 34.6 PPG which ranks 123rd in the nation — but playing USC and Oregon already will lead to ugly numbers for most teams. They held Arizona and Hawai’i to less than 400 total yards. They also rank in the top 25 in Opponent Pass Explosiveness Allowed — so they should limit the big plays from Buffaloes quarterback Shedder Sanders. Colorado has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win by three points or less on the road — and they have played 12 of their last 15 home games Under the Total after a victory by three points or less. My main offseason question for the Buffaloes regarded whether head coach Deion Sanders' massive transfer portal reset could rebuild both lines simultaneously with all the influx of skill-position talent on both sides of the ball. Sanders brought with him several players from his Jackson State squad including his son, Sanders, at quarterback and two-way cornerback/wide receiver Travis Hunter who was the number one recruit in the 2021 class. With at least 33 transfer players and another 19 freshmen signings, the Buffaloes have seen an 80% turnover in the roster from a team that finished 1-11 last year. After losing 21 of 26 games, the program can only go up under Sanders’ guidance. But the grunt work is in the trenches. Their offensive line has 44 career starts and is small for a Power Five program. The defensive line is dependent on transfers with no starters back and is also on the small side. Depth is also an issue — especially on the offensive and defensive lines. They have struggled with these issues — but Stanford is not in the position to exploit it. Interestingly, the offense ranks 89th in the nation in Quality Drive Rate — and they rank 102nd in Finishing Drive Rate. Getting Hunter back in the secondary will help their pass defense which has allowed 335 and 403 passing yards in their last two games. Colorado has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 325 or more passing yards in two straight games. The Buffaloes have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when favored including two of their three games laying the points this season.

FINAL TAKE: Stanford has played 7 of their last 11 road games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range. 8* CFB Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Stanford Cardinal (123) and the Colorado Buffaloes (124). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (111) and the Kansas City Chiefs (112). THE SITUATION: Denver (1-4) lost for the fourth time in their five games this season with a 31-21 upset loss to the New York Jets as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Kansas City (4-1) has won four games in a row after their 27-20 win at Minnesota as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Kansas City has not scored more than 27 points in four of their five games this season — and they have not scored more than 23 points in three of their five games. After losing JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman in the offseason, their cadre of young receivers like Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, and Rashee Rice have not stepped up to become a number one wide receiver target for quarterback Patrick Mahomes. As their opening game against Detroit demonstrated, these wide receivers simply drop too many passes. After the eight drops in that opening contest that probably cost them the game, Mahomes is seeing 6.7% of his passes dropped this season, the third-highest mark in the NFL. Now facing this horrendous Broncos defense that particularly struggles against the run, expect head coach Andy Reid to be quite content just running the ball — and that will burn time off the clock. Denver is allowing opposing rushers to generate 5.9 Yards-Per-Carry. And while the Broncos are also giving up 263 passing Yards-Per-Game, the Chiefs have played 36 of their last 56 games Under the Total against opponents allowing 260 or more passing YPG. While the memory of Miami putting up 70 points and 726 yards against this Broncos team three weeks ago, the Chiefs tend to not put up those video game-type numbers when they are playing at home at Arrowhead Stadium (despite their scoring of 41 points at home earlier this season against Chicago). In their ten home games last season, they only scored more than 27 points one time — but they scored 30 or more points eight times when on the road including the Super Bowl. Despite averaging 29.2 PPG last regular season, the scoring average dropped to 25.1 PPG when playing at home. Perhaps their scoring was lower in these home games because they did not need to push the pedal because of their strong play on defense. They held their regular season guests to just 19.4 PPG and 325.5 total YPG. This year’s Chiefs’ defense is even better with the continued development of their second-year players. Defensive end George Karlaftis, cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, and safety Bryan Cook form a great foundation on that side of the ball for years — and, of course, defensive tackle Chris Jones’ contract dispute is resolved and he is back in the mix after missing the Lions game. Kansas City is holding their opponents to 16.0 PPG and 301.4 YPG while not giving up more than 21 points all season. In their two home games, the Chiefs are allowing just 15.5 PPG and 285.5 YPG. Kansas City has played 15 of their last 24 home games Under the Total — and they have played 13 of their last 31 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Furthermore, they have played a decisive 42 of 64 home games Under the Total when laying 7.5 to 14 points. Denver only gained 308 total yards last week — but “Russell Wilson is not the problem!” Ever since the football left his hand in Super Bowl 49 and somehow ended in the arms of New England’s Malcolm Butler at the goal line to cost Seattle that championship, it’s never Wilson’s fault. “Let Russ Cook!” And when Russ was finally allowed to cook by being liberated from the conservative defensive coach Pete Carroll, the fireworks were inevitable with Wilson’s opportunity to construct an offensive scheme with the offensive coordinator that helped Aaron Rodgers win MVPs! But when personal parking spaces and offices in the building did not lead to huge numbers or wins, it was decided that it was all head coach Nathaniel Hackett’s fault. Bring in an adult like Sean Payton and everything will come together! Unironically, these folks were anxious for Payton to get Wilson back to the comfort level that he enjoyed when playing with the Seahawks — as if Payton implements the Brian Schottenheimer playbook, all will be great again (despite Schottenheimer being the arch-villain in the Let Russ Cook drama). Even now, five games into what is already a lost season, there remains a contingent who remain fully committed to the “It’s Not Russ’ Fault” narrative as they post tweets about how good his numbers are again. If the analytics folks want to privilege the empty calorie statistics from when the Broncos were trailing by 30 or so points against the Dolphins or laud Wilson’s 308 passing yards in Denver’s game against Washington where they blew a 21-3 lead (Not Russ’s Fault!) while he completed only 56.0% of his passes, well, I guess they can. Admittedly, Wilson’s interceptions are down. And he has been more mobile again (his defenders are quick to point out that he dropped weight in the offseason yet leave unanswered the mystery regarding how he gained 20 pounds last year — perhaps Wilson was force-fed Twinkies by that idiot Hackett in their 7 AM sessions last August when Russ was putting his personal stamp on the offense?). But Wilson has passed for more than 223 yards in just two of his five games — and the Broncos have not scored more than 21 points in three of their five games. Perhaps most importantly, Wilson has heroically returned to his 2021 Seattle form (when his not being allowed to cook was the crime against humanity), and he has done so against some of the worst defenses in the league. Las Vegas, Washington, Miami, and Chicago rank 24th, 26th, 25th, and 31st in the Football Outsiders Defensive DVOA rankings. The Jets rank 15th in Defensive DVOA (and were without cornerback D.J. Reed) — yet Wilson completed just 20 of 31 passes against them for 196 passing yards in that loss. Now Wilson faces the best defense he has faced this season according to the Defensive DVOA numbers that place the Chiefs 11th — on a short week to boot. As it is, the Broncos have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after an upset double-digit loss as a home favorite. Denver has given up at least 28 points in four straight games — but they have then played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total after allowing 25 or more points in three or more games in a row. And while they allowed the Jets to rush for 234 yards, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing 175 or more rushing yards. Additionally, the Broncos have played 11 of their last 18 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total in the first half of the season — and Kansas City has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total from Week Five to Week Nine. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (111) and the Kansas City Chiefs (112). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (475) and the Las Vegas Raiders (476). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (2-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 34-20 loss at home to Detroit as a 2.5-point underdog back on September 28th for Thursday Night Football. Las Vegas (1-3) has lost three games in a row after their 24-17 loss in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 7-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Green Bay dug themselves a big hole last week as they went into the locker room trailing by a 27-3 score. The Packers have then played 18 of their last 25 games Over the Total after allowing 24 or more points in the first half of their last game. They have also played 36 of their last 55 games Over the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 15 of their last 19 home games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home. They have also played 33 of their last 51 road games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. And they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. Green Bay is struggling with their running game after failing to rush for more than 95 yards in a game this season. With Aaron Jones declared out for tonight’s game, the Packers will likely rely on their passing game which will lengthen the game. They have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after not rushing for 100 or more yards in four straight games. Quarterback Jordan Love has struggled with his accuracy as he is completing only 56.1% of his passes — but his receivers have had too many drops. Second-year wide receiver Christian Watson was injured to begin the season — but he returned for the Lions game to score a touchdown and is ready to go tonight. Love does have eight touchdown passes to just three interceptions — and he is averaging 18.5 rushing yards per game with two touchdowns offering enough of a threat with his legs to keep defenses honest. Las Vegas will have Jimmy Garoppolo and Davante Adams on the field tonight with the quarterback clearing the concussion protocol and the wide receiver able to play with his shoulder issue. Garoppolo missed the game against the Chargers — and rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell demonstrated that he is not ready for NFL competition despite his nice preseason as the offense only gained 264 total yards. The Raiders have played 18 of their last 25 home games Over the Total after a loss by seven points or less against an AFC West rival. And while they have not scored more than seven points in the first half in two straight games, they have then played 25 of their last 36 home games Over the Total after failing to score more than seven points in the first half in two straight games. And while Las Vegas has played their last two games Under the Total, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have played 6 of their last 9 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (475) and the Las Vegas Raiders (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (473) and the San Francisco 49ers (474). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-1) comes into this showdown off a 38-3 win against New England as a 6-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (4-0) maintained their unbeaten season with a 35-16 victory against Arizona as a 14.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys held the Patriots to just 253 yards in their blowout victory last week. Led by Micah Parsons, Dallas may have the best defense in the league. They are holding their opponents to just 259.8 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in just 10.5 Points-Per-Game. They rank as the top defense in the NFL using the Football Outsiders DVOA rankings. They also lead the league in third-down defense and turnover differential. They enjoyed a +3 net turnover margin last week — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total on the road after a +2 or better turnover margin. They have also played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. And while the Cowboys have covered the point spread in three of their four games this season, they have then played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. They go back on the road where they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total as an underdog of up to seven points. Additionally, Dallas has played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. The 49ers hold their opponents to just 4.7 YPP — and the Cowboys have played 14 of their last 18 road games Under the Total against teams not allowing more than 4.75 YPP. San Francisco has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win against a divisional rival — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit win against an NFC West rival. The 49ers’ defense is also outstanding as they hold their opponents to just 284.3 total YPG which results in their opponents scoring only 14.5 PPG. They rank seventh in the NFL in Defensive DVOA. The Niners do have an explosive offensive — but they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring 35 or more points in their last contest. They did generate 7.6 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have then played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after averaging 6.5 to more YPP in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played twice since 2022 with San Francisco following up a 23-17 win in the 2022 NFC Wildcard round of the playoffs with a 19-12 victory last year in the NFC Divisional Playoffs — and that game was after the Niners had Christian McCaffrey Brock Purdy in their starting lineup but only generated 312 total yards of offense against Dallas defensive coordinator Dan Quinn’s defense. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (473) and the San Francisco 49ers (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (457) and the Indianapolis Colts (458). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (2-2) has won two of their last three games after their 27-3 upset victory against Cincinnati as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Indianapolis (2-2) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 29-23 victory in overtime against the Los Angeles Rams as a 1-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Titans have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 8 of their last ten games Under the Total after an upset win as an underdog. They held the Bengals to just 72 rushing yards last week — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last contest. They go back on the road where they have played 22 of their last 36 road games Under the Total when favored by three points or less. Indianapolis has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. And while the Colts allowed the Rams to average 6.14 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 6.0 or more YPP. They stay at home where they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the Total listed in the 42.5-45 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against fellow AFC South opponents — and they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 8*  NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (457) and the Indianapolis Colts (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas State Wildcats (315) and the Oklahoma State Cowboys (316). THE SITUATION: Kansas State (3-1) comes off a 44-31 win against Central Florida as a 6-point favorite back on September 23rd. Oklahoma State (2-2) has lost two games in a row after their 34-27 loss at Iowa State as a 3.5-point underdog on September 23rd.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats generated 536 total yards against the Knights two weeks ago — and they have played 4 straight Overs after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring 42 or more points than their last contest. Additionally, Kansas State has played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a game at home where both teams scored 31 or more points. They have covered the point spread in two of their last three contests — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. They have also played 4 straight Overs after a bye week. The Wildcats' defense has been exposed in their last two games with Missouri scoring 30 points against them in their lone loss this season before Central Florida put up 31 points against them. Kansas State is giving up too many big plays as they rank 122nd in the nation in Opponent Explosiveness Allowed. The Wildcats go back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 11 road games Over the Total when favored by 7.5 to 14 points. Oklahoma State gained 409 yards in their last game — but they allowed the Cyclones to generate 422 yards in that touchdown loss in Ames. The Cowboys have played 20 of their last 30 games at home Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 17 of their last 25 home games Over the Total after a loss to a Big 12 rival. Oklahoma State has also played 11 of their last 14 home games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. The Cowboys are a program that seems to have lost their way in the 19th season under head coach Mike (“I’m 40, I’m a man”) Gundy. They only averaged 125.5 rushing YPG last season, their lowest tally since 2001 — and after claims from offensive coordinator Kasey Dunn in the offseason that he wanted to get back to a physical running game, they are only averaging 123 rushing YPG while passing on 59.4% of the plays from scrimmage, the fifth-highest in the FBS. The diminished commitment to run the football along with playing up-tempo with their passing attack is weighing heavily on their defense. On the defensive side of the ball, after ranking fifth in the nation by holding their opponents to 297.4 YPG in 2021, they plummeted to 114th in the nation by giving up 435.7 YPG. The loss of long-time defensive coordinator Jim Knowles to Ohio State last year was a big blow to the program. The deeper analytics are not bullish as they rank 126 in Opponent Explosiveness Allowed and 121st in Opponent Finishing Drives Allowed. The Cowboys are allowing 371.3 YPG — but those numbers include their 27-13 win against Central Arkansas out of the FCS and a rebuilding Arizona State team. In their last two games against South Alabama and then the Cyclones in their last game, they have allowed 33 and 34 points. Oklahoma State has played 23 of their last 33 games Over the Total after allowing 31 or more points in two straight contests. They return home where they have played 17 of their last 24 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range — and they have played 25 of their last 39 home games as an underdog. They have also played 23 of their last 34 home games Over the Total in October. And while Kansas State is scoring 39.5 PPG, the Cowboys have played 22 of their last 31 home games Over the Total against teams who are scoring 37 or more PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Bundy has tapped senior Alan Bowman as his full-time starting quarterback after rotation between him and two other QBs in their first three games. The former Texas Tech and Michigan transfer is a gunslinger — he attempted 48 passes in the loss to the Cyclones. The Wildcats are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 62.2% of their passes — and Oklahoma State has played 17 of their last 21 home games Over the Total against teams who allowing opposing QBs to complete 62% or more of their passes. 10* CFB Kansas State-Oklahoma State ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas State Wildcats (315) and the Oklahoma State Cowboys (316). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (305) and the Washington Commanders (306). THE SITUATION: Chicago (0-4) has lost their first four games this season after their 31-28 loss at home to Denver as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. Washington (2-2) has lost two games in a row after their 34-31 loss in overtime at Philadelphia as a 10-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Commanders have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Washington has played 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after losing two games in a row. The Commanders did allow the Eagles to generate 6.48 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have then played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to average 6.0 or more YPP. The offense will likely be undermanned tonight with wide receivers Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson both questionable with injuries. Expect the Washington game plan to be to control the line of scrimmage with Brian Robinson running the ball and burning time on the clock. The Commanders have played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total after the first month of the season. Chicago enjoyed their best offensive game of the season after putting up 471 yards up against the dreadful Broncos defense fresh off giving up 70 points to Miami the previous week. So while the Bears generated 7.14 YPP, they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after gaining 6.0 or more YPP in their last game. Chicago has also played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing four or more games in a row. The Bears defense is nothing to write home about either after giving up 401.3 Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — but they have then played 15 of their last 24 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more YPG in their last three games.

FINAL TAKE: Washington head coach Ron Rivera prefers lower-scoring games where his offense can control the clock to keep his defense fresh — the Commanders have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when they are favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 20* NFL Chicago-Washington Amazon Prime O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (305) and the Washington Commanders (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (279) and the New York Giants (280). THE SITUATION: Seattle (2-1) has won two games in a row after their 37-27 win against Carolina as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. New York (1-2) comes off a 30-12 loss at San Francisco as a 10.5-point underdog back on September 21st.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Seattle has covered the point spread in their last two games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games. They have scored 37 points in two straight contests — but they have then played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring 25 or points in two straight contests. The Seahawks defense has underachieved this season after allowing at least 27 points in all three of their games — but they get back Jamal Adams tonight after missing almost all of last season with the knee injury he suffered in Week One. He will immediately improve their run defense — and he will probably be assigned to rush the quarterback in big nickel schemes with two other safeties on the field. Seattle goes back on the road where they have played 39 of their last 61 road games Under the Total in the first month of the season. They have also played 49 of their last 82 road games Under the Total as a favorite of up to seven points. New York has played 5 straight games Under the Total after a loss on the road by 14 or more points — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have not covered the point spread in all three of their games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. The Giants have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. After scoring only 14.3 PPG this season, injuries are making any improvement on that side of the field nearly impossible. Running back Saquon Barkley remains out with his high ankle sprain. Left tackle Andrew Thomas is out with a hamstring injury. They return home where they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 10 games at home with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range, New York has played 8 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Giants have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Seahawks have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (279) and the New York Giants (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (277) and the New York  Jets (278). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (2-1) has won two games in a row after their 41-10 win against Chicago as a 13-point favorite last Sunday. New York (1-2) has lost two games in a row after their 15-10 loss to New England as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jets’ offense has been a disaster in the wake of the Aaron Rodgers series in the opening series of their first game of the season. They are scoring only 14.0 Points-Per-Game and averaging just 225.0 total Yards-Per-Game. The team is still sticking with Zach Wilson despite him only completing 52.4% of his passes this season. But the problems of this offense go much further than the disappointing former second pick in the 2021 draft. New York’s offensive line is a mess as an already shaky unit has been hit hard with injuries with left tackle Duane Brown out along with rotational guard Wes Schweitzer. Wilson has been sacked eight times — and he is not getting any help in their rushing attack behind this line that is not opening rushing lanes. Dalvin Cook has generated only 2.3 Yards-Per-Carry and Breece Hall has a mere 36 total yards from scrimmage in his last two games. The Jets have scored only 10 points in two straight games. New York has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a loss at home to an AFC East rival. The Jets' defense has been strained — but they remain a good unit that is only allowing 20.3 PPG. In their two games at home at MetLife Stadium, they held Buffalo and the Patriots to just 16 and 15 points. New York has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. Kansas City comes off a dominating performance where had the ball for 36:13 minutes while generating 31 first downs against the Bears. The Chiefs have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a game where they had at least 24 first downs with their offense on the field for at least 34 minutes. They gained 456 total yards last week while outgaining Chicago by +253 net yards — and they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after outgaining their last opponent by +200 or more yards. And while Kansas City has generated 6.3 and 6.1 Yards-Per-Play in their last two games, they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. Don’t be surprised if head coach Andy Reid is content with dialing up their rushing attack tonight against this Jets defense that has allowed 291 rushing yards in their last two games — and that will shorten the game by keeping the clock moving. The Chiefs' defense has become another strength for this team as they are holding their opponents to just 13.3 PPG and 280.7 YPG. They rank ninth in the NFL in Football Outsiders Defensive DVOA ratings — and they have not allowed more than 21 points in a game while giving up just 19 combined points in their last two contests.

FINAL TAKE: The Jets have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (277) and the New York  Jets (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (271) and the Los Angeles Chargers (272). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (1-2) looks to bounce back from their 23-18 upset loss at home to Pittsburgh as a 3-point favorite last Sunday night. Los Angeles (1-2) won their first game of the season in a 28-24 upset victory at Minnesota as a 1-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Raiders will be without quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo who suffered a concussion late in the game against the Steelers. Rookie Aidan O’Connell will be under center for head coach Josh McDaniels — and while the former Purdue quarterback look good in the preseason, he will be introduced to non-vanilla defenses and first-string players this afternoon. Even with Garoppoli, they have not scored more than 18 points in any of their games this season. The Raiders have played a decisive 46 of their last 72 road games Under the Total after a loss at home. And while they committed three turnovers last week from Garoppolo interceptions, they have then played straight Unders after a game where they had three or more turnovers. They go back on the road where they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total. Los Angeles has played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win on the road. They have also played 54 of their last 85 home games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. Justin Herbert completed 40 of 47 passes for 405 yards in the victory — and the Chargers have played 22 of their last 28 home games Under the Total after playing a game where they passed for at least 350 yards.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 3 of their last 4 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing on the Chargers home field. 8* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (271) and the Los Angeles Chargers (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (265) and the New Orleans Saints (266). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (2-1) looks to bounce back from their 25-11 loss at home to Philadelphia as a 5.5-point underdog on Monday. New Orleans (2-1) had their two-game winning streak snapped in an 18-17 upset loss at Green Bay as a 1-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneers offense got exposed against the Eagles as they only gained 174 total yards. Baker Mayfield completed 15 of 25 passes for a meager 146 yards. Tampa Bay is scoring only 19.3 Points-Per-Game. The Bucs have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss at home. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Buccaneers’ offensive line is holding them back — the season-ending knee injury to center Ryan Jensen was a major blow for this team. They struggled to get a running game going last year even with a healthy Jensen — and now they are averaging just 78 rushing Yards-Per-Game with a 2.8 Yards-Per-Carry average. They got outrushed by -160 yards last week to the Eagles — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after getting outrushed by -150 or more yards. Tampa Bay’s defense has been solid as they are allowing only 19.7 PPG after holding two of their opponents to only 17 points. New Orleans has not allowed more than 20 points in 11 straight games behind what may be the most underrated defense in the league. The Saints have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they held the Packers scoreless going into the fourth quarter before squandering that lead, they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their last game. It looks like Derek Carr is going to give it a go in this one after being listed as questionable all week with a shoulder injury that knocked him out of last week’s game. With running back Alvin Kamara returning from his suspension, look for the New Orleans offense to focus on the ground game to protect Carr in what will likely be a contained game plan. New Orleans returns home where they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total. They have also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in the first month of the season — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against NFC South rivals. Tampa Bay has played 20 of their last 30 games Under the Total against fellow NFC rivals. 10* NFL Sunday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (265) and the New Orleans Saints (266). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Nevada Wolf Pack (177) and the Fresno State Bulldogs (178). THE SITUATION: Nevada (0-4) remained winless this season after their 35-24 loss at Texas State as a 17-point underdog last Saturday. Fresno State (4-0) is unbeaten this year after their 53-10 win against Kent State as a 27.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wolf Pack have played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spread. They have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after losing three or more games in a row. My question before the season started on my deep dive on this team was whether second-year head coach Ken Wilson could raise the floor as to what to expect from his defense. The former Oregon defensive coordinator inherited a dumpster fire last year after the Wolf Pack’s previous head coach Mike Norvell took many of the players with him when he bolted for the Colorado State job. Only 22% of the production from 2021 returned to Reno last season. But the Wolf Pack did hold eight of their opponents to just 23.3 PPG and 4.9 Yards-Per-Play with the potent offenses from Boise State, Fresno State, Air Force, and Incarnate Word being the outliers. Eight starters are back on that side of the ball. The numbers have not improved just yet — but they have played two of the most explosive offenses in the nation in USC and Kansas. After getting outgained by 178 yards two weeks ago in their loss 31-24 loss at home to the Jayhawks, they got outgained by 220 yards last week to the Bearcats. Nevada has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after getting outgained by -125 or more yards in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after getting outgained by -175 or more yards in two straight games. The Wolf Pack have allowed 31 or more points in all four of their games — but they have played 7 straight games on the road Under the Total after allowing 31 or more points in three or more games in a row. On the other side of the ball, Nevada ranks 125th in the nation by scoring only 17 PPG. Fresno State has played 30 of their last 45 games Under the Total after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. The Bulldogs have also played 38 of their last 59 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in three of their four games, they have then played 29 of their last 44 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The question I had for this team before the season was whether the Bulldogs could come close to replacing the production that Jake Haener provided them at quarterback the last three seasons. Junior Logan Fife had five starts last year when Haener got injured early in the season. Head coach Jeff Tedford also brought sophomore Mike Keene from Central Florida in the transfer portal. Only four starters on the offensive line return for the entire offensive unit that ranked 51st and 52nd in the nation by scoring 30.6 PPG and averaging 402.8 YPG. Five of the top six targets in the passing game must be replaced along with running back Jordan Mims who rushed for 1370 yards with 18 rushing touchdowns last year. Keene has taken the starting job — and he is completing 67.5% of his passes with 12 touchdown passes and just two interceptions. But he has also been sacked 11 times despite the experience on the offensive line. The Bulldogs generated 7.66 Yards-Per-Play last week against the Golden Flashes — but they have played 44 of their last 67 games Under the Total after averaging 6.75 or more YPP. After allowing 66 combined points in their first two games, Fresno State had given up a mere 10 points in their last two contests. The Bulldogs have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in two straight games. They should continue to play well on that side of the ball with seven starters back from the tune that ranked 14th in the nation by allowing only 19.4 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Fresno State has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. 25* College Football Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Nevada Wolf Pack (177) and the Fresno State Bulldogs (178). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (145) and the Georgia Southern Eagles (146). THE SITUATION: Coastal Carolina (2-2) had their two-game winning streak snapped with their 30-17 upset loss at home to Georgia State as a 5-point favorite back on September 21st. Georgia Southern (3-1) comes off a 40-3 win at Ball State as a 5.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chanticleers have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. They have only committed one turnover in their last three games — and they have played six straight Unders when on the road after not committing more than one turnover in two straight games. They go back on the road where they only scored 13 points in their other game on the road at UCLA. They have played 8 of their last 11 games on the road Under the Total. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 63.5-70 point range. After 30 victories in the previous three seasons, my question during the offseason with this program was whether they would experience a drop-off after Jamey Caldwell took the head coaching job at Liberty. The cupboard is not empty with 30 seniors or super sixth-year seniors returning led by quarterback Grayson McCall, the three-time Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year. But despite their 6-2 conference record, the Chanticleers got outgained by -20 Yards-Per-Game against Sun Belt opponents. North Carolina State offensive coordinator Tim Beck got tapped as their new head coach — but this team will go as far as their defense can play well. Six starters return to a unit switching to a 4-3 formation after ranking 110th in the FBS by allowing 31.8 Points-Per-Games and 101st in the nation by giving up 418.0 Yards-Per-Game. This team won all five of their games decided by one-scoring possession — and that will be difficult to come close to replicating if the defense does not improve. The defense has improved as they are allowing 20.0 PPG along with 386.3 YPG. On paper, the offense looks about the same as last year — but those numbers are propped up by a 66-0 win against Duquesne. In their three games against FBS opponents, they are only scoring 20.0 PPG and generating 382 YPG. Georgia Southern held the Cardinals to just 197 total yards in their victory against Ball State. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. They have also played 22 of their last 31 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Eagles have gained at least 455 total yards in each of their games this season — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in two or more games in a row. Now after completing a two-game road trip, they return home having played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a two-game road stand. My question for this team when conducting my deep dive was whether head coach Clay Helton could get his defense under control after they ranked 128th in the nation by giving up 487.7 Yards-Per-Game. The Eagles replace eight of their top-ten tacklers along with nine of the 12 players who logged in 300 or more snaps — but that might be addition by subtraction. Helton’s team was 4-4 in games decided by one-scoring possession despite going up at least 30 points in four of those contests. Despite ranking 18th in the nation by generating 465.9 YPG, they still got outgained by 83 YPG in the Sun Belt because of their porous defense. So far this season, the defense has been much better as they are holding their opponents to 18.3 PPG and 334.3 YPG — and the most yardage they have given up this season was 477 against Wisconsin which, while not great, does represent a big improvement.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their 6 meetings against each other Under the Total — and they have played three straight Unders after Coastal Carolina’s 34-30 victory on October 1st last season which just finished Under the 69.5-point total. 8* CFB Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the  Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (145) and the Georgia Southern Eagles (146). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (101) and the Green Bay Packers (102). THE SITUATION: Detroit (2-1) improved their record to 2-1 this season after their 20-6 win at home against Atlanta as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay (2-1) has the same record after their 18-17 upset win against New Orleans as a 1-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lions have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory.  And while they have covered the point spread in two of their three games, they have then played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Jared Goff continues to be more effective when playing at home for Detroit. At home at Ford Field last year, the Lions scored 33 Points-Per-Game with Goff averaging 274 passing Yards-Per-Game with 23 touchdown passes, only three interceptions, and a QBR of 110. But on the road, Detroit’s scoring dropped to 19 PPG with Goff averaging 245 passing YPG with a mere four touchdown passes, four interceptions, and a QBR of 87. So far this season, those disparate home/road splits have continued for Goff. He has averaged 283.0 passing YPG while completing 73.5% of his passes in his two home starts -- but in his one start on the road this season at Kansas City, those numbers dropped to 253 passing yards and a 62.9% completion percentage. The Lions have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Detroit is not at full strength on their offensive line with starting right guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai out along with offensive lineman Matt Nelson. Green Bay is also banged up on their offensive line with starting left tackle David Bahktiari and starting left guard Elgton Jenkins both out for tonight’s game. The Packers have covered the point spread in all three of their games this season — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two straight games. Green Bay stays at home where they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. The Packers’ defense has eight former first-round draft picks — and they rank 10th in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA rankings so far this season. The Lions are also playing better defense so far this season — they rank 12th in those defensive DVOA rankings.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played two low-scoring games last season with Detroit winning both games by 20-16 and 15-9 scores. Green Bay has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Detroit Lions (101) and the Green Bay Packers (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (479) and the Cincinnati Bengals (480). THE SITUATION: The Los Angeles Rams (1-1) enter this game coming off a 30-23 loss at home to San Francisco as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Cincinnati (0-2) remained winless this season after their 27-24 upset loss at home against Baltimore as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Bengals’ quarterback  Joe Burrow is a game-time decision as he continues to be slowed by a nagging calk injury he suffered in late July. Even if he plays, he is not close to 100% — and this leg injury is impacting his passing ability. He is 0-12 with his passes of at least 15 yards in the air downfield. He is completing only 56.9% of his passes. If he cannot go tonight, then backup Jake Browning will get the call. The former Washington Huskies quarterback is in his third year in the league and has thrown exactly one pass in a regular season game back in Week One. Cincinnati does not have much of a ground game to lean on either. Running back Joe Mixon has lost a step at this point in his career. After averaging only 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry last season, he has rushed for 59 and 56 yards on 13 carries in both his games. The Bengals have only rushed for 75 and 66 yards in their first two games — and they have then played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after not rushing for more than 99 yards in two straight games. They have been outrushed by 131 and 111 yards in both their games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after being outrushed by -100 or more yards in two straight contests. Additionally, Cincinnati has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after an upset loss at home against an AFC North rival. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a loss at home. Furthermore, the Bengals have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. And in their last 10 games in September, Cincinnati has played 8 of these games Under the Total. Los Angeles may be without the injured Cooper Kupp but Matthew Stafford is healthy and operating a ball-control offense behind former Notre Dame running back Kyren Williams. The Rams’ offense has been on the field for 36:17 minutes per game — and that is helping to protect their young defense that is allowing only 272.5 Yards-Per-Game. That defense is certainly helped by a healthy Aaron Donald controlling the line of scrimmage. Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss at home to an NFC West rival. Additionally, the Rams have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. Los Angeles did surrender 6.89 Yards-Per-Play to the 49ers — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to generate 6.5 or more YPP. They go back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total as a road underdog. Furthermore, the Rams have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against non-conference opponents — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (479) and the Cincinnati Bengals (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (475) and the Las Vegas Raiders (476). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (1-1) looks to build off their 26-22 upset win at home against Cleveland as a 2-point underdog on Monday. Las Vegas (1-1) comes off a 38-10 loss at Buffalo as a  7.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Pittsburgh scored two defensive touchdowns last week to get to 26 points — but they managed only 255 yards on offense. That side of the ball has been anemic with second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett struggling and offensive coordinator Matt Canada under intense fire for his play-calling and schemes. Injuries have played a role with wide receiver Dionte Johnson on the injured list with a hamstring. The Steelers' defense gave up 198 rushing yards last week — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after alloying 175 or more rushing yards in their last contest. Tightening things up in the ground game was high on the list of priorities after they also gave up 188 rushing yards to the 49ers. The Steelers miss the injured Cam Heyward — but they should be better this week after allowing the Browns to gain 408 yards against them. Pittsburgh has played 34 of their last 54 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more yards including six of those last eight circumstances. They have played 3 straight Unders when playing on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football. Additionally, the Steelers have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. Las Vegas only managed 240 total yards last week against the Bills. They opened their season by beating Denver — but they only scored 17 points in the win. Some of Las Vegas' troubles start with their rushing attack which is averaging only 58 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Josh Jacobs is only generating 1.6 Yards-Per-Carry. The Raiders may only have one quality offensive lineman in left tackle Kolton Miller — everyone else may be just replacement-level guys. Las Vegas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. And while they got outrushed by -128 net yards, they have played 4 straight Unders after getting outrushed by -100 or more yards. Furthermore, while the Bills generated 450 yards against them, the Raiders have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 400 or more yards in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total in expected close games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Las Vegas has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (475) and the Las Vegas Raiders (476). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (455) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (456). THE SITUATION: Houston (0-2) has lost their opening two games of the season after their 31-20 upset loss to Indianapolis as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Jacksonville (1-1) took their first loss of the season in a 17-9 setback at home to Kansas City as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Texans have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss at home. And while that game finished Over the 40.5-point Total, they have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Houston will be without starting left tackle Laremy Tunsil who is dealing with an injury. With rookie C.J. Stroud nursing an injured right shoulder, look for offensive coordinator Bobby Slowick to dial back the passing game to protect their franchise quarterback. The Texans go back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total. Jacksonville has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They stay at home where they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Jaguars have played 9 of their last 13 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and the Texans have played 10 of their last 13 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 8* NFL Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with  Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (455) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (461) and the Miami Dolphins (462). THE SITUATION: Denver (0-2) has lost their opening two games after their 35-33 upset loss to Washington as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Miami (2-0) has won their first two games after their 24-17 win at New England as a 1-point favorite last Sunday night.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss at home. Denver has not covered the point spread yet under new head coach Sean Payton — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in their last game. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight games. They did average 7.25 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in their last game. Quarterback Russell Wilson is getting sacked once in every eight dropbacks. With the challenge of playing in the South Beach heat against this potent Dolphins offense, look for Payton to try to shorten this game with his rushing attack behind running backs Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine. The defense will be without Justin Simmons and Frank Harris this afternoon, but this remains a good group that is allowing only 324.5 total Yards-Per-Game this season. Denver ranked seventh in the NFL last year by holding their opponents to 320.0 YPG. They go back on the road where they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total. The Broncos have also played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as a road dog. Additionally, Denver has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in September. Miami has played 19 of their last 25 games Under the Toal at home after beating an AFC East rival on the road in their last game. And while they outgained the Patriots by +101 net yards last week, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after outgaining their last opponent by +100 or more yards. They return home where they have played 11 of their last 17 games at Hard Rock Stadium. They have also played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored by seven or fewer points. Additionally, Miami has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in September. Head coach Mike McDaniel will be without wide receiver Jaylen Waddle who is out with a concussion. Without his deep threat, the dynamo of the offense changes — and Denver defensive coordinator Vance Joseph can either double-team Tyreek Hill or rely on shutdown cornerback Pat Surtain II to cover him.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and the Dolphins have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (461) and the Miami Dolphins (462). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 10:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boise State Broncos (311) and the San Diego State Aztecs (312). THE SITUATION: Boise State (1-2) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 42-18 victory against North Dakota as a 14.5-point favorite last Saturday. San Diego State (2-2) has lost two games in a row after their 26-9 loss at Oregon State as a 24.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. And while that game finished above the 58.5-point total, they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 37 points in their last game. They go back on the road where they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as a road favorite. San Diego State has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss by 17 or more points. They only gained 326 total yards against the Beavers with their offense struggles Jalen Mayden, a former safety, under center. They are scoring only 18.8 Points-Per-Game this season.

FINAL TAKE: The Aztecs have played 9 of their last 12 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 range — and the Broncos have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. 8* CFB Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Boise State Broncos (311) and the San Diego State Aztecs (312).  Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (301) and the San Francisco 49ers (302). THE SITUATION: New York (1-1) rebounded from their embarrassing loss to Dallas on Sunday Night Football with a 31-28 victory at Arizona as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (2-0) is unbeaten in their first two games after their 30-23 victory on the road against the Los Angeles Rams as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Giants will be without running back Saquon Barkley and left tackle Andrew Thomas due to injuries tonight — and that is not ideal for an offense that had not scored a single point until they exploded for 31 second-half points last week against the woeful Cardinals. New York has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They have also played off their last 17 games on the road Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread. They have also played 17 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a win on the road by three points or less. The Giants’ defense is playing well as they are only allowing 322 YPG. Remember that the first two touchdowns that Dallas scored against them in that 40-0 debacle were from a blocked field goal attempt and then an interception returned for a TD. To address their run defense that ranked 27th in the NFL by allowing 144.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game, they signed defensive tackles A’Shawn Robinson and Rakeem Nunez-Roches along with linebacker Bobby Okereke in free agency who all have good reputations as run stuffers. In that opening-week loss to the Cowboys, the Giants did hold Dallas to just 122 rushing yards on 20 carries. San Francisco has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win against an NFC West rival in their last game. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. The loss of right tackle Mike McGlinchey to Denver in free agency may haunt this team since ample time is an essential requirement for the Shanahan offense to purr — and quarterback Brock Purdy holds on to the ball a little longer than Jimmy Garoppolo. Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk is questionable tonight with a shoulder injury — he was considered 50-50% to play yesterday and will be a game-time decision tonight. Even if he plays, he may not be 100% — and he is important to the offense as a legitimate deep threat who opens up the middle of the field. This will be the Niners' first home game this season — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home when favored in the 7.5-14 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday night. 10* NFL Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (301) and the San Francisco 49ers (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (291) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (292). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (1-0) opened their season with a 24-3 win against Cincinnati as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Pittsburgh (0-1) looks to bounce back from their 30-7 loss to San Francisco as a 1-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Cleveland was impressive at home against the Bengals as they held them to just 142 total yards of offense. This Browns defense has the potential to be special with the addition of defensive end Za’Darius Smith in a trade with Minnesota who gives them a legitimate pass rush threat to complement Myles Garrett (replacing JaDeveon Clowney who perpetually disappointed in that role the last few seasons). The team also brought in former Detroit Lions head coach Jim Schwartz as defensive coordinator after successful previous stints with the Tennessee Titans and Philadelphia Eagles. But quarterback Deshaun Watson continued to lack the spark he demonstrated in his time at Houston — he completed only 16 of 29 passes for just 154 yards. The growing concern with Watson is that the year and a half away from football due to his injury and then suspension has zapped the juice that was his x-factor in making him a special player. The Cleveland offense is dealing with some injuries themselves. Right tackle Jack Conklin is out the season with a torn ACL and MCL — and the Browns offensive line unit is dealing with some other guys that are banged up. Wide receiver Amari Cooper is questionable with a groin — and his absence would leave them without a reliable number-one target since Donovan Peoples-Jones and Elijah Moore have not taken advantage of their past opportunities. Cleveland has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win at home by three or more touchdowns. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their last game — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after not allowing more than six points in their last contest. They held Joe Burrow to just 67 passing yards in that game — and they have played 20 of their last 25 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 100 passing yards in their last contest. But after generating only 144 net yards in their own passing attack, the Browns have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last game. Pittsburgh only generated 239 total yards last week against the 49ers — and now the offense will be without wide receiver Diontae Johnson who is feeling with a hamstring injury. The Steelers have played 5 straight Unders after a loss by 14 or more points — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a loss by 21 or more points. Additionally, Pittsburgh has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Steelers have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. Head coach Mike Tomlin should have his defense ready to play despite the injury to defensive end Cam Hayward. They will miss Heyward on their defensive line — but they have depth with their defensive ends. Remember, this group was much better with a healthy T.J. Watt. Pittsburgh ranked tenth in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 20.4 Points-Per-Game. They have played 12 of their last 18 home games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 5 straight Unders in the opening two weeks of the new season.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against AFC North rivals — and Cleveland has also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against divisional rivals. 10* NFL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (291) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (292). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (287) and the New England Patriots (288). THE SITUATION: Miami (1-0) won their opening game of the season with a 36-34 victory on the road against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. New England (0-1) looks to rebound from their 25-10 loss at home against Philadelphia as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Miami comes into this game banged up on their offensive line with left tackle Terron Armstead and Robert Jones dealing with injuries. While Brandon Staley’s Chargers defense did not do much to challenge their offensive line last week with Tua Tagovailoa untouched in the picket all game, that is not likely to be the case against this stout Patriots pass rush led by linebacker Matthew Judon. After his 15.5 sacks last season, he entered the season with 28 sacks in his 34 career games wearing a New England uniform. The Dolphins have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Miami stays on the road for the second straight week as they travel across the country to the northeast from southern California — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after scoring at least 35 points in their last contest. The Dolphins have also played 4 straight Unders after an upset victory as an underdog. Miami generated 536 total yards last week — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining 400 or more yards in their last contest. And while they overcame a -2 net turnover margin last week, they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after enduring a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. New England did a great job of containing the stout Eagles offense last week by holding them to just 251 total yards — and seven of Philly’s points came off a 70-yard interception returned for a touchdown. Look for head coach Bill Belichick to have a much better defensive strategy for their divisional rivals this week. What is so frustrating about Staley is that his defense bottled up Tagovailoa last season by pressing their wide receivers on the line of scrimmage and then taking away the middle of the field. While Staley abandoned that plan last week perhaps playing (and losing) a three-dimensional chess game no one else was playing, look for Belichick to take that approach and adjust his personnel while engaging in a rope-a-dope scheme that encourages the Dolphins to run the football. The Patriots have held Tyreek Hill to less than 100 receiving yards in five straight games. But New England has their own injury issues on the offensive line with starters Trent Brown and Cole Strange along with rookie Sidy Cow all questionable and free agent tackle Riley Reiff on the four-week injured list. The Patriots have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have played 5 of their last 8 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the first two weeks of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when favored — and New England has played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (287) and the New England Patriots (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Florida Atlantic Owls (199) and the Clemson Tigers (200). THE SITUATION: Florida Atlantic (1-1) looks to rebound from their 17-10 upset loss to Ohio as a 3.5-point favorite last Saturday. Clemson (1-1) bounced back from their opening week loss to Duke with a 66-17 victory against Charleston Southern as a 52-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Tigers' defense is probably a bit underrated right now after their prime-time loss to the Blue Devils a few weeks ago. They may have the best defensive line unit in the nation with defensive tackles Tyler Davis and Luke Orhorhor along with defensive end Xavier Thomas leading the way after bypassing the NFL last year. They only allowed 73 total yards last week. And despite Riley Leonard being lauded as a future NFL quarterback, they held Duke to only 175 passing yards. The problem for Clemson in that game was they had three separate first-and-goal opportunities but came away with zero points in all three of those drives. Sophomore quarterback Cade Klubnik still has much to prove despite passing for 315 yards last week. Both teams scored defensive touchdowns in that game which pushed the final combined score up. The Tigers have played 26 of their last 37 games Under the Total after a game where 70 or more combined points were scored. They have also played 31 of their last 43 games Under the Total after scoring 50 or more points in their last contest. They have yet to cover the point spread this season — and they have played 22 of their 32 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. They stay at home where they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 49.5-52 point range. FAU only managed 185 total yards last week in their loss to the Bobcats. Seven of their points were scored on a 72-yard interception return for a touchdown.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (189) and the Mississippi Rebels (190). THE SITUATION: Georgia Tech (1-1) registered their first win of the season in a 48-13 win against South Carolina State as a 45-point favorite last Saturday. Mississippi (2-0) remained unbeaten with their 37-20 win at Tulane as a 13.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Yellow Jackets have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Now they go back on the road against an SEC opponent — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams outside the ACC. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog listed in the 10.5-21 point range. They face an Ole Miss team that may get caught looking ahead to their showdown with Alabama next week. The Rebels only gained 363 yards with just 18 first downs in their victory against the Green Wave. They have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while head coach Lane Kiffin’s team has scored 110 combined points after putting up 73 points against Mercer, they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring 31 or more points in two straight games. The Rebels have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams outside the SEC — and they have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Solid technical play with this one despite the total being in the low-60s. Ole Miss has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range — and Georgia Tech has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range. The Rebels shut out the Yellow Jackets by a 41-0 score last season. 8* CFB Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (189) and the Mississippi Rebels (190). Best of luck for us — Frank.