At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the BYU Cougars (312) minus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (311). THE SITUATION: BYU (3-2) looks to bounce-back from their 35-7 loss at Washington last Saturday as an +18.5-point underdog. Utah State (3-1) has won three straight games after their 42-32 win over Air Force as a 9.5-point favorite back on September 22nd.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: BYU should bounce-back with a strong effort against their in-state rival. Not one have the Cougars rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss but they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by at least 20 points. BYU was stymied by the strong Huskies defense — but they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring less than 20 points in their last game. The Cougars are likely to get two key members of their defense back with linebacker Zayne Anderson and safety Dayan Ghanwoloku returning the to the field. Without those two starters, BYU surrendered 464 yards to Washington — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Utah State has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win. The Aggies passed for 356 yards in that game while averaging 7.89 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after averaging at least 6.75 YPP while they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Utah State did give up 323 rushing yards to the Falcons spread triple option attack — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards. Head coach Matt Wells team has failed to cover the point spread in a whopping 14 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. The Aggies have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games as an underdog of 3 points or less. And in their last 7 games in the month of October, Utah State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these contests.

FINAL TAKE: This is a critical game for BYU who need this win to keep them in good shape to become bowl eligible which is the primary goal for this independent that lacks a conference championship opportunity. The Cougars perhaps do not have as much passing for this rivalry as the Aggies — but they will be motivated with revenge from their upset 40-24 loss to Utah State as a small favorite last September. 25* CFB Friday Night ESPN2 Game of the Month with the BYU Cougars (312) minus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (303) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (304). THE SITUATION: Tulsa (1-3) takes the field again after losing at Temple back two Thursdays ago in a 31-17 loss as a 6.5-point underdog. Houston (3-1) takes the field after blowing out FCS opponent Texas Southern by a 70-14 score two Saturdays ago as a 55-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN HURRICANES PLUS THE POINTS: Tulsa dominated the Owls at least on the stat sheet in that 14-point loss. The Golden Hurricanes won the first down battle by a 32-16 margin while also outgaining Temple by +103 net yards. Tulsa surrendered a 36-yard interception return for a touchdown along with a 50-yard interception return for a touchdown and those two defensive TDs were too much to overcome. Overall, the Golden Hurricanes suffered a -3 net turnover margin in that game — so protecting the football was certainly a point of emphasis in practice over the last two weeks for head coach Philip Montgomery. This Tulsa team suffered a 2-10 record last year — but that was a football team that had five net losses decided by one scoring possession which was the most in the nation. That Golden Hurricanes also was ravaged with injuries — so this roster is probably a lot closer to the talent of the group that finished 10-3 back in 2016 than the one that won only two games last season. Tulsa has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. The Golden Hurricanes have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games on the road — and this includes them covering the point spread in seven of their last eight road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, Tulsa has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 7 games in the month of October, the Golden Hurricanes have covered the point spread 5 times. Houston (3-1) may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win by at least 20 points. The Cougars passed for 386 yards in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the month of October. The Cougars have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in American Athletic Conference play.

FINAL TAKE: Houston suffered five upset losses last season so Major Applewhite’s team is certainly vulnerable despite playing at home as a favorite approaching three touchdowns. Tulsa has now lost thirteen of their last sixteen games — but they are much better than what that trend suggests. The Golden Hurricanes were one of those five teams to stun the Cougars last year so they will not lack for confidence in this game. Expect this contest to be closer than expected. 10* CFB Tulsa-Houston ESPN Special with the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (303) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (161) minus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (162). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (4-0) enters this Big Ten showdown coming off a 49-6 win over Tulane last Saturday as a 37.5-point favorite. Penn State (4-0) comes off a 63-24 blowout win at Illinois as a 25.5-point favorite last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Ohio State should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. Buckeyes quarterback Dwayne Haskins completed 21 of 24 passes against the Green Wave (who just upset Memphis last night) which resulted in 304 yards with five touchdown passes. Haskins offers the Buckeyes a power passing attack which they did not have last year with quarterback J.T. Barrett. Ohio State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after passing for at least 325 yards in their last game. Haskins offers the Buckeyes a more dynamic weapon than what the Buckeyes had last year when they defeated Penn State by a 39-38 score. Ohio State dominated the line of scrimmage in that game by winning the yardage battle by a 529 to 283 margin. But an opening 97-yard kickoff return for a touchdown along with two turnovers helped the Nittany Lions race out to a 28-10 lead in the second quarter before the Buckeyes completed their successful rally. That game was at the Horseshoe in Columbus — but Ohio State is 30-16-1 ATS in their last 47 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Buckeyes have also covered the point spread in 23 of their last 31 road games when favored by 7 points or less. Ohio State has not turned the ball over in their last three games which is a good sign for them for this rematch — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after not turning the ball over in at least two straight games. Penn State struggled last week against a subpar Fighting Illini team. They were trailing by a 24-21 score at the 10:36 mark of the third quarter and only had a 28-24 lead entering the fourth quarter before exploding for 35 points in those final fifteen minutes. The Nittany Lions allowed Illinois to generate 411 yards of offense in that game which is a scary number when now hosting the Buckeyes. Remember that Penn State needed overtime to defeat Appalachian State to open their season — and they surrendered 451 yards in that game. Penn State has won their last three games by at least 39 points while being favored by at least a touchdown in all three games. But the Nittany Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning their last three games by at least three touchdowns. Penn State has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in three straight games as at least a 7-point favorite in each of those contests. This is an inexperienced team that returned only ten starters from last year’s team that saw a number of their players move on to the NFL. I am not convinced that head coach James Franklin is recruiting to just reload to the same extent that Urban Meyer is with Ohio State. Lastly, the Nittany Lions have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 25 home games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games.

FINAL TAKE: Ohio State should have blown out Penn State last year — but a few flukey plays and some poor attention to detail by the Buckeyes kept them around in that game. I look for the Buckeyes to clean much of that up on the road in this challenging situation which should allow for their superior talent to overwhelm the Nittany Lions. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Ohio State Buckeyes (161) minus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (162). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (208) minus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (207). THE SITUATION:  Notre Dame (4-0) remained undefeated this season with their 56-27 win at Wake Forest last Saturday as a 6-point favorite. Stanford (4-0) survived a wild one last week as they rallied from a 24-7 halftime deficit at Oregon to force overtime and shock the Ducks by a 38-31 final score as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING IRISH MINUS THE POINTS: The Cardinal might be due for an emotional letdown after mustering the energy to come from behind to upset Oregon on the road. Stanford has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread victory. This is the second straight game where the Cardinal will be on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games coming off a game away from home. Frankly, Stanford was getting dominated in that game — until they recovered a fumble that they returned for an 80-yard touchdown which completely changed the tone of that game. The Cardinal did average 7.96 Yards-Per-Play in that win — but they have failed cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after averaging at least 7.25 YPP in their last game. Stanford has also defeated USC and San Diego State this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning at least four in a row. Notre Dame should build off the momentum of their big win on the road last week. The Fighting Irish have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win — and they have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by at least four touchdowns. Notre Dame has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a game played on the road. Kelly has finally tapped redshirt sophomore Ian Book as his starting quarterback over senior Brandon Wimbush who has struggled with accuracy. Book offers this team a legitimate passing attack as he showed in the Citrus Bowl last year where he completed 14 of 19 passes for 164 yards in their 21-17 victory over LSU. Book completed 25 of 34 passes last week against the Demon Deacons for 325 yards while adding another 43 yards with three touchdowns on the ground. The Irish return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Notre Dame gets their top running back for this game in Dexter Williams who has finished his suspension from the team. Head coach Brian Kelly usually has his team playing well this time of the season. The Irish have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of September — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in Weeks 5 through 9 of the regular season.

FINAL TAKE: Notre Dame will have revenge on their minds after getting upset in Palo Alto last November 25th against Stanford by a 38-20 score despite being a 3-point favorite. Remember that this loss to close out their regular season was after their deflating 41-8 loss at Miami (FL) in a game that ended both their undefeated season as well as any realistic chance they had to earn a spot in the College Football playoffs. Look for the Fighting Irish to avenge that loss with a decisive victory. 25* College Football Game of the Month is with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (208) minus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (207). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Northwestern Wildcats (210) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (209). THE SITUATION: Northwestern (1-2) takes the field again after a bye week following their 39-34 upset loss to Akron two Saturdays ago despite being a 21.5-point favorite. Michigan (3-1) enters this game coming off their 56-10 win over Nebraska as an 18-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Northwestern was done-in by turnovers against the Zips. They allowed a 97-yard interception return for a touchdown along with a 50-yard interception return for a TD along with a fumble recovery in their end zone that Akron turned into a third defensive touchdown. Those miscues overwhelmed their 491 to 367 edge in total yards. The week off and the opportunity to upset the Wolverines should help the Wildcats play their best game of the season. They have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after the first month of the season under head coach Pat Fitzgerald. There were bright spots in that loss to the Zips. Fifth-year senior quarterback Clayton Thorson completed 33 of his 52 passes for 383 yards in a losing effort. Northwestern has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after failing at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last contest. The Wildcats also held Akron to just 90 rushing yards — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 100 rushing yards in their last contest. Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win by at least 20 points. Jim Harbaugh’s team has bounced-back from their opening loss at Notre Dame to win their last three games in convincing fashion. But all three of those games were at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games against teams with a losing record at home — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road overall. The weak link of this team is their offensive line that was manhandled by the Irish — and this will that group’s biggest challenge since that game against a Northwestern front four that returned three starters from last year’s team that was 20th in the FBS by holding their opponents to just 20.1 PPG. The Wolverines have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last contest. And in their last 14 games after holding their last opponent to less than 21 points, Michigan is just 4-9-1 ATS.

FINAL TAKE: The underdog has covered the point spread in 6 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams. The Wildcats are significant home underdogs in this game — but they will be motivated to redeem themselves from a bad loss two weeks ago. Fitzgerald’s team was 10-3 last year with a bowl win over Kentucky. Fourteen starters including their four-year starting QB in Thorson returned from that team. This should be a close game. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Northwestern Wildcats (210) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (209). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (107) plus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (108). THE SITUATION: UCLA (0-3) looks to earn their first victory in the Chip Kelly era as they take the field again after their 38-14 loss to Fresno State back on September 15th. Colorado (3-0) remained unbeaten this season after they defeated New Hampshire two Saturdays ago by a 45-14 score as a 37.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS PLUS THE POINTS: Kelly needed that bye week to help get the UCLA ship on order. He certainly inherited a roster with plenty of talent despite finishing just 6-7 last year. An injury in the opening week to graduate transfer quarterback Wilton Speight did not help the cause. Speight’s back has improved enough for him to be able to ;any tonight but it is unclear if the former Michigan starting quarterback will take the field instead of freshman quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Despite receiving plenty of criticism this season, it is not as if Kelly has forgotten how to coach football. The Bruins should be in a better position to execute his up-tempo spread offense tonight. UCLA managed only 270 yards of offense against Fresno State with just 151 of these yards being in the air — but they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after failing to pass for at least 170 yards in their last game. The Bruins needs to play better on the defensive end of the field after allowing 49 points in their previous game at Oklahoma. UCLA has covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after allowing at least 31 points in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 37 points in their last two contests. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a victory where they failed to cover the point spread. Furthermore, the Buffaloes have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a bye week. Colorado is thriving due in a large part to some good fortune with turnovers. After winning the turnover battle in their previous game at Nebraska, the Buffaloes forced three turnovers to seize a +1 net turnover margin against New Hampshire. But net turnover margins are a better gauge to explain past win-loss records rather than future results. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after forcing at least three turnovers in their last game. The Buffaloes have also failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 51 games after winning the turnover battle in two straight games. Colorado is also just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games at home.

FINAL TAKE: While it has been a disastrous start for UCLA, the three teams they have played so far this season enter Week Four of the CFB season with a 10-1 record. With the week off to regroup and the clean slate they still have as they begin Pac-12 play, the Bruins still have plenty to play for this season under their new head coach. Expect UCLA to play their best game of the season. 10* CFB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the UCLA Bruins (107) plus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Tulane Green Wave (106) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (105). Memphis (3-1) looks for their first win in American Athletic Conference play tonight after they defeated South Alabama last week by a 52-35 score. Tulane (1-3) looks to bounce-back from their 49-6 loss at Ohio State last Saturday as a big 37.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GREEN WAVE PLUS THE POINTS: Tulane may look unappealing to many bettors with their lone win being against Nicholls State this season — but head coach Willie Fritz is a great coach who typically gets the most out of his talent. Their opening game loss to Wake Forest was in overtime and they were tied at UAB with ten minutes to go in the 4th quarter before they lost by a touchdown. The Green Wave returns fourteen starters from last year’s team that finished just 5-7 — but nine of those opponents were bowl eligible and they lost four of those games by 6 points or less. Tulane should rebound with a strong effort tonight as they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Additionally, the Green Wave are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after failing to score at least 20 points — and they have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after failing to score at least a touchdown. Furthermore, Tulane has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after playing a non-conference opponent. And in Fritz’s last 9 games with this team against fellow American Athletic Conference opponents, the Green Wave are 6-2-1 ATS. Memphis may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 38 of their last 60 games after a win by at least 17 points. Furthermore, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 40 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games after scoring at least 50 points in their last game. Memphis was 10-3 last year while being helped out by a +15 net turnover margin which was 4th best in the FBS. But this year’s team has seen the Regression Gods appear when it comes to turnover as they have a net turnover differential of zero. That could bode trouble for them now playing in a hostile environment. Defense remains an issue for this team as well after they ranked 116th in the FBS by allowing 466.2 total YPG. The Tigers surrendered 467 yards to the Jaguars last week with 360 of those yards being in the air. Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing at least 325 passing yards. And while the Tigers rushed for 271 yards last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Tulane is better than their record appears — they should score enough points to at least keep this game interesting while staying within the point spread. 25* CFB Friday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Tulane Green Wave (106) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (105). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (104) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (103). THE SITUATION: Miami (FL) (3-1) looks to build off their 31-17 win over Florida International last Saturday as a 26.5-point favorite. North Carolina (1-2) enters this game coming off a 38-35 upset victory at home against Pittsburgh as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES MINUS THE POINTS: The Tar Heels now go back on the road on a short week to play their third game away from home this month. North Carolina is 0-2 on the road this year while being outscored by -14.5 PPG against inferior teams than these Hurricanes in East Carolina and California. The Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games as a big underdog in the 17.5 to 21 point range. Defense is an issue for this team after they allowed 31.3 PPG while ranking tied for 98th in the FBS by surrendering 436 total YPG last year. The whispers are getting louder that head coach Larry Fedora is not paying close enough attention to the defensive side of the football. Successful opponents against North Carolina have been able to run the football to keep Fedora’s typical dynamic offense off the field. This season, the Tar Heels are allowing 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry which has resulted in 203 rushing YPG for their opponents along with keeping the UNC offense off the field for 33:51 minutes per game. This defense allowed 213 rushing YPG last season which was 213th in the nation — and they were last in the ACC in run defense. The Tar Heels previous game was a 41-19 loss at East Carolina before they pulled that upset last Saturday — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 30 games after playing two straight games where at least 60 combined points were scored. North Carolina is also 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games in the month of September. Miami returned seven starters from their good defense last year — and they have been even stingier so far this season as they are allowing only 18.5 PPG while giving up just 223.7 total YPG. They limited the Golden Panthers to just 187 yards of offense last week — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 275 yards of offense in their last game. The Hurricanes have also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 26 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. On offense, head coach Mark Richt has not declared who is starting quarterback will be despite last year’s starter Malik Rosier being the first under center in all four games this season. But redshirt freshman N’Kosi Perry has been dynamic when giving the opportunity to play — and he might get the start tonight after completing 17 of 25 passes for 224 yards with three touchdown passes last week while adding another 32 yards on the ground with his dangerous ability to move the ball with his scrambling ability. But the Miami offense will revolve around their strong one-two punch at running back with Travis Homer and Lorenzo Lingard who have helped this offense average 204 rushing YPG while averaging 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry — and they have churned out at least 239 rushing yards in each of their last three games. The Hurricanes have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. They dominated FIU last week by +301 net yards — and not only have they then covered the point spread in 27 of their last 38 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +150 net yards but they have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +200 net yards. Miami has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Lastly, this team is outscoring their opponents by +25.0 PPG while also outgaining their opponents by +225.5 net YPG — and they have been even more dominant at home in their first two games where they have outscored their opponents +45.5 PPG while outgaining these opponents by +358.5 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Miami should dominate the Tar Heels by using the tried-and-true method of running the football to dominate time of possession. 25* CFB ACC Game of the Month with the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (104) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (103). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah State Aggies (392) minus the points versus the Air Force Falcons (391). THE SITUATION: Utah State (2-1) looks to build off the mAt 10:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah State Aggies (392) minus the points versus the Air Force Falcons (391). THE SITUATION: Utah State (2-1) looks to build off the momentum of their 72-12 win over Tennessee Tech Thursday. Air Force (1-1) takes the field again after having lost week off following their 33-27 loss at Florida Atlantic back on September 8th as an 8-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES MINUS THE POINTS: Utah State generated 621 yards of offense against their FCS foe last week. While some bettors might discount those numbers given their opponent, I consider this Aggies’ offense to be the best unit that head coach Matt Wells has assembled in his six years with the football program. Redshirt sophomore quarterback took over the starting job midway during last season and displayed a propensity for big-play ability down the stretch to justify him entering this season as the incumbent starter. He validated that faith last week by completing 21 of 26 passes for 236 yards and two touchdown passes last week. Utah State has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. This Aggies team was just 6-7 last year three of those losses were decided by one scoring possession. If this team could learn to win close games, they would likely be considered one of the best teams in the Mountain West Conference. After losing by just a 38-31 score in East Lansing to Michigan State to start the season, Utah State has now lost their last nine games that were decided by just one scoring possession. Eventually, this Aggies team will start winning their share of those games — and this inability to pull out close games right now obscures a team from many bettors that should cover this double-digit point spread tonight. Nine starters along with 84.2% of their tackles from last year returned — and they only allowed 227 yards in their blowout last week. Utah State is 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game — and they have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +175 yards. Wells’ team owns a huge field advantage as they are on a 31-9 run at home while outscoring their first two visitors by an average score of 66.5 to 12.5 point margin. The Aggies have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games in the month of September. Air Force (1-1) is not likely to bounce-back with a strong effort as they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 31 games after a straight-up loss. Even with the bye week, this is a difficult assignment for the Falcons playing on the road for the second straight game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 43 of their last 69 games after a loss on the road. That now two-loss Owls team outgained Air Force in that game by 152 net yards — and the Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after being outgained by at least 125 yards. Air Force was only 5-7 last year with there being whispers that the talent level is declining on this squad after head coach Troy Calhoun missed out on a bowl for only the second time in his eleven-year coaching tenure. Opposing offenses destroyed them last year when they were in shotgun formation where slow-developing run plays continued to expose the lack of speed on this defense. To compound matters, Calhoun lost his skilled defensive coordinator in Steve Russ who was wooed to the NFL by the Carolina Panthers. The offensive line is also small which puts them at a disadvantage at the better FBS programs. Air Force has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games against fellow Mountain West Conference opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The icing on the cake for this contest is that Utah State is motivated with revenge after losing last year’s matchup with the Falcons by a 38-35 score on the road. Air Force is on a 51-18 run at home but it is much different story for them on the road. And while the Falcons have their unique spread triple option offense, I am sure that Wells has been practicing against those schemes for at least two weeks since that contest with Tennessee Tech last week was a glorified scrimmage. 25* CFB ESPN2 Game of the Month is with the Utah State Aggies (392) minus the points versus the Air Force Falcons (391). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (312) minus the point versus the Akron Zips (311). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (0-2) has opened the season winless after losing at home to Oklahoma last week by a 37-27 score as an 18.5-point underdog. Akron (2-0) is undefeated after they upset Northwestern last Saturday by a 39-34 score as a 21-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES MINUS THE POINTS: The Zips were rather fortunate to steal that game last week in Evanston against the Wildcats after being outgained by a 491 to 367 mark. Akron made up for that significant gap by scoring three defensive touchdowns with a 97-yard interception return for a touchdown along with a 50-yard interception return for a TD and a fumble recovery in the end zone. Iowa State is not likely to be near as accommodating this week — and that likely means a rude awakening for this Akron team that has failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after an upset win as a double-digit underdog. The Zips stay on the road for a second straight week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games after a win on the road. Terry Bowden’s team is vulnerable to being blown out as they were outgained in Mid American Conference play last year by -103 net YPG. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games played on grass. Iowa State should bounce-back with a big effort as they are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread victory. And while their defense surrendered 519 yards to the Sooners, they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing at least 450 yards. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games. And in their last 8 games in September, the Cyclones have covered the point spread 6 times. Together, these team trends produce our specific 78-16-3 ATS combined angle for this situation.

FINAL TAKE: Iowa State should easily earn their first win of the season in this one against a Zips team that was a season full of good breaks last week when it comes to scoring defensive touchdowns. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Iowa State Cyclones (312) minus the point versus the Akron Zips (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (324) plus the points versus the Boston College Eagles (323). THE SITUATION: Boston College (3-0) remained undefeated this season last week with their 41-34 win at Wake Forest back on September 13th as a 6.5-point favorite. Purdue (0-3) is still looking for their first win of the season after they lost at home to Missouri last week by a 40-37 score as a 5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BOILERMAKERS PLUS THE POINTS: Don’t blame the Purdue offense as they generated 614 yards of offense in their loss to the Tigers. The Boilermakers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Purdue has the benefit of staying home for the fourth straight game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. The Boilermakers have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games outside Big Ten play — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of September. Boston College has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against Big Ten opponents. The Eagles usually have a strong defense under head coach Steve Addazio but they allowed the Demon Deacons to generate 512 yards of offense in escaping with that victory. Now Boston College stays on the road for the second straight week where they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 20 road games when laying 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Expect the Boilermakers to be very feisty as they look to get their first win of the season. This should be a close game the Purdue can win. 10* CFB Boston College-Purdue ESPN2 Special with the Purdue Boilermakers (324) plus the points versus the Boston College Eagles (323). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Maryland Terrapins (320) minus the points versus the Minnesota Golden Gophers (319). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (3-0) won their third straight games last Saturday with their 26-3 win over Miami (OH) as a 14-point favorite. Maryland (2-1) looks to bounce-back from a 35-14 upset loss last week versus Temple as a 15-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TERRAPINS MINUS THE POINTS: The Golden Gophers might be primed for a letdown as they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they are only 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a point spreadn win. Furthermore, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 6 points in their last game. Now head coach P.J. Fleck’s team goes on the road for the first time this season. This could lead to some harrowing moments for a group that has 59 of their 113 players being true or redshirt freshmen led by starting quarterback Zack Annexstand who is a former walk-on for this team. Yikes — the road may provide a stern reality check for this group that was just 2-7 in Big Ten play last year while getting outgained by -100 YPG. Minnesota is just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games on the road — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Big Ten play. Maryland should rebound with a strong effort after their embarrassing loss last week. The Terrapins have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after an upset loss by at least 17 points. Furthermore, Maryland has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a double-digit loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games at home after a loss by at least 17 points Additionally, the Terrapins have covered the point spread in 40 of their last 61 games after a loss by at least three touchdowns. Maryland managed only 195 yards in that loss to the Owls but their offense should play better this afternoon. The Terrapins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after failing to generate at least 275 yards in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: Maryland started the season strong with another upset win over Texas. They took a step back last week — but they are playing well for interim coach Matt Canada who is leading the team during the ongoing controversy they team suffered in their preseason that has resulted in head coach D.J. Durkin being on indefinite leave with the school just ruling that the football team was irresponsible in the handling of their player who died on the practice field. Amidst this emotional backdrop, look for the Terrapins to rebound with a big effort against a very young Golden Gophers group. 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Month with the Maryland Terrapins (320) minus the points versus the Minnesota Golden Gophers (319). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the USC Trojans (310) minus the points versus the Washington State Cougars (309). THE SITUATION: Washington State (3-0) won their third straight game last Saturday with their 59-24 win over Eastern Washington as a 20-point favorite. USC (1-2) has lost two straight games after they lost at Texas last Saturday night by a 37-14 score as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TROJANS MINUS THE POINTS: The Cougars may be due for a letdown after starting the season a perfect 3-0. Washington State had come off a 31-0 shutout win over San Jose State the previous week before easily dispatching of their FCS opponent — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning their last two games by at least four touchdowns in each game. The Cougars generated 565 yards of offense last week but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. Now after playing their last two games at home, Washington State goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games. The Cougars have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning their last two games at home by at least two touchdowns. Washington State has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on Friday night. USC needs a win after losing two straight games at Stanford and then last week in Austin against the Longhorns. Returning home will help this Trojans team as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. USC has also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a straight-up loss. This team remains one of the most talented groups in the nation — they returned thirteen starters from their team that was 11-3 last year. Too often this team plays uninspired football for head coach Clay Helton. But I expect a very spirited effort from this team on a two-game losing streak yet with the opportunity to avenge a 30-27 upset loss to this Washington State team from last September.

FINAL TAKE: Motivated by revenge and redemption from a two-game losing streak, don’t be surprised if the Trojans play their best game of the season. 10* CFB Friday Late Show Bailout with the USC Trojans (310) minus the points versus the Washington State Cougars (309). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Florida Atlantic Owls (305) plus the points versus the Central Florida Golden Knights (306). THE SITUATION: FAU (2-1) has won two straight games after their blowout 49-28 win over Bethune Cookman last Saturday. Central Florida (2-0) takes the field again after a bye week following their 38-0 shutout over South Carolina State two weeks ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE OWLS PLUS THE POINTS: Central Florida has now won fifteen straight games with their two wins tacking on to their perfect 13-0 record last year. But the Golden Knights returned only twelve starters from that team and have a new Air Raid-influenced offensive system under new head coach Josh Heupel. While Central Florida still has their junior quarterback McKenzie Milton under center, this new offense asks him to stay under center more often in passing situations rather than the horizontal option schemes that previous head coach Scott Frost designed for him to run to accentuate his speed. This will be Milton’s biggest test so far this season after an easy schedule against UConn and then an FCS opponent before this game. Last year’s team benefited from a +17 net turnover margin which is a primed for a visit from the Regression Gods while also surviving all four of their games decided by one scoring possession. Yet the Golden Knights are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a win by at least 20 points. Central Florida has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. FAU (2-1) has rebounded with two straight wins after the opening week lesson they were served in Norman. Oklahoma at the hands of the Sooners. Head coach Lane Kiffin will have his team ready for this game and they should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win. The Owls seized a 36-14 lead at halftime last week — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after scoring at last 24 points in the first-half in their last game. The FAU offense cranked out 559 yards in that victory — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Now the Owls go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 road games after a game where at least 70 combined points were scored. And while Kiffin’s team is an underdog of almost two touchdowns, FAU has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games as an underdog of 7.5 to 14 points.

FINAL TAKE: FAU should offer a tough challenge to Central Florida’s fifteen game winning streak — especially since the Golden Knights do not enjoy a significant home-field advantage. Expect a close game. 10* CFB FAU-Central Florida ESPN Special with the Florida Atlantic Owls (305) plus the points versus the Central Florida Golden Knights (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (303) plus the points versus the Temple Owls (304). THE SITUATION: Tulsa (1-2) has lost two games in a row after their 29-20 upset loss last Saturday against Arkansas State as a 2-point favorite. Temple (1-2) won their first game the season last Saturday in a 35-14 upset win at Maryland as a 15-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN HURRICANES PLUS THE POINTS: Tulsa opened their season with an 11-point win over Central Arkansas before losing by a touchdown as a 21-point dog in Austin against Texas. This is a critical contest in head coach Philip Montgomery’s fourth year in Tulsa after they fell plummeted from a 10-3 mark in 2016 to just a 2-10 record last year. Last year’s Golden Hurricanes’ group was better than that record suggests as they played eight teams who reached a bowl game. Tulsa lost five games that came down to the final possession as well — so that final record could have been much better. Fifteen starters return from that group including both quarterbacks in sophomore Luke Skipper and junior Chad President who endured a trial by fire last year. Skipper proved to be the more dangerous weapon last year given his dual-threat capabilities. So far this season, Skipper is completing 61.3% of his passes for 521 yards while adding another 109 rushing yards on the ground. Montgomery should have his team play tough as they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a point spread loss. The Golden Hurricanes have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games as the underdog. Tulsa suffered from a -2 net turnover margin in that loss to the Red Wolves while forcing only one turnover. But the Golden Hurricanes have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after only forcing one turnover — and they have covered the point spread in 3 straight games after enduring a -2 or worse turnover margin in their last contest. Temple began the year suffering upset losses to Villanova and Buffalo before pulling that trick off themselves as a double-digit underdog against a Big Ten school in the Terrapins. But it might be hasty to assume that all is right again for second-year head coach Geoff Collins. The Owls have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after an upset win by at least two touchdowns on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a victory by at least three touchdowns. Furthermore, inconsistency has been an issue for this Temple team under Collins as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. The Owls have questions at quarterback with the undisclosed injury to Frank Nutile that kept him out last week. Sophomore Anthony Russo played well in his absence so it is unclear what will happen tonight — especially since Nutile had completed only 52.4% of his passes in his first two games while tossing 4 interceptions. Temple returned only twelve starters from last year’s 7-6 team. Defense has been a staple for this team as of late — and they held Maryland to just 195 yards of offense in that upset win last week. But the Owls have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Lastly, Temple has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the month of September — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home.

FINAL TAKE: With Tulsa coming into this game feisty and with something to prove while Temple being perhaps a bit relieved from last week but with underlying quarterback issues, expect a close game in this American Athletic Conference contest. 25* CFB Thursday Night ESPN Game of the Month with the Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (303) plus the points versus the Temple Owls (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the TCU Horned Frogs (204) minus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (203). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (2-0) remained undefeated this season last Saturday when they crushed Rutgers at home by a 52-3 score as a 35-point favorite. TCU (2-0) also remains unscathed this year after they traveled to SMU to defeat the Mustangs by a 42-12 score as a 23.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNED FROGS PLUS THE POINTS: TCU entered this season underrated after they went 11-3 last year in a season that culminated with a 39-37 shootout victory over Stanford in the Alamo Bowl. Two of their three losses were to an Oklahoma team that made the College Football Playoff. The offense is led by redshirt sophomore quarterback Shawn Robinson who has a similar game to former star Horned Frogs quarterback Trevor Boykin in his ability to generate yardage with a big arm as well as his legs. 18-year head coach Gary Patterson may have the most talent he has ever assembled on offense in his tenure with TCU. But the signature of a Patterson football team is his defense — and this year’s group returns six starters from a unit that was 15th and 19th in the nation by holding teams to just 19.0 PPG and 331.4 total YPG. This group is loaded with speed which will help them slow down the Buckeyes’ spread offense. So far this season, the Horned Frogs have not allowed a Red Zone touchdown. They limited SMU to just 3.36 Yards-Per-Play last week — and they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 3.75 YPP in their last game. This game is being played fifteen minutes away from TCU’s campus in the Cowboys’ AT&T Stadium in Arlington which will afford the Horned Frogs a big home advantage — and this should make them dangerous underdogs along with their outstanding defense. TCU has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 “home” games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points. Ohio State may be setting themselves up for a letdown in this significant jump in competition as they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a win over a Big Ten opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by at least 21 points over a conference rival. This will be the last game the teams plays without their head coach Urban Meyer walking the sidelines after he serves his three-game suspension to begin the season. While I don’t think the loss of Meyer on the sidelines is a big deal with interim head coach Ryan Day doing the game-management, there is no question that the team is better with Meyer serving as the leader of the team. But I do not like the overall vibe with this program after they faced all the distractions and negativity in the offseason. They only return twelve starters from last year’s team that finished 12-2 — and, as usual, much of their lost talent went on to the NFL. Sophomore quarterback Dwayne Haskins has looked great so far under center — but he has yet to face an elite defense in hostile territory. The Buckeyes have averaged 7.93 and 8.29 Yards-Per-Play against shaky competition to open their season — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after averaging at least 7.25 YPP in their first two games. The defensive secondary will be tested in this game — and this is a vulnerable unit that lost cornerback Denzel Ward among a handful of players that took their talents to the NFL. Not only is this group raw but they only ranked 45th in interceptions last year after ranking 4th in the nation in that category in 2016. Last week’s game finished Under the 58.5 point total — but Ohio State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games following a game that finished Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: This is a tough assignment for the Buckeyes to face a team on the road in a hostile environment who boast an outstanding defense. Ohio State may survive but I expect them to have their hands full against a TCU team that I consider a good long shot bet to win the Big 12 and reach the College Football Playoff. 25* CFB Saturday Night ABC-TV Game of the Month on the TCU Horned Frogs (204) minus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (203). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Auburn Tigers (154) minus the points versus the LSU Tigers (153). THE SITUATION: Auburn (2-0) remained undefeated so far this season after they crushed Alabama State last Saturday by a 63-9 score. LSU (2-0) is also undefeated so far this year after they shutout Southeast Louisiana last week by a 31-0 score as 41.5-point favorites.

REASONS TO TAKE AUBURN MINUS THE POINTS: Guz Malzahn’s team should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least five touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 42 points in their last game. Auburn has a strong defense once again this year led by an elite defensive front that has helped them only allow 25 so far this season. These Tigers have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. Auburn returned thirteen starters including their starting quarterback Jarrett Stidham from last year’s group that defeated both Alabama and Georgia while outscoring all their SEC opponents by +153.8 net YPG. Auburn has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against fellow SEC foes. Auburn has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games at home. LSU may be due for a letdown for this showdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win at home where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite. These Tigers have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a point spread loss. LSU enjoyed a +3 turnover in that game last week after producing a +2 net turnover margin in their first game of the season against the Miami Hurricanes and their “turnover chain.” But the Regression Gods are fickle and may likely make an appearance against this team that is +5 in the turnover margin after their first two games. Even their +10 net turnover margin from last season is ripe for a return to earth. As it is, LSU has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after enjoying at least a +2 net turnover margin in their last two games. These Tigers return only ten starters from last year’s group that finished 9-4. LSU has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games in the month of September.

FINAL TAKE: Auburn will also have revenge on their minds from a 27-23 upset loss at LSU last year where they were 6-point favorites. Look for Auburn play with passion with this motivation for a little vengeance. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Auburn Tigers (154) minus the points versus the LSU Tigers (153). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Arizona State Sun Devils (394) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (393). THE SITUATION: Arizona State (1-0) began the Herm Edwards coaching era in strong fashion as they crushed UTSA by a 49-7 score last Saturday as a 17-point favorite. Michigan State (1-0) looked wobbly at home last week as they outlasted Utah State by a 38-31 score despite being a 23.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUN DEVILS PLUS THE POINTS: The Spartans are supposed to have an outstanding defensive secondary with all five of the starters from their 4-2-5 scheme returning from last year — but they surrendered 319 passing yards to the Aggies despite playing that game in East Lansing. Michigan State is just 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. On paper, Sparty looks very good this year with nineteen starters returning from last year’s team that finished 10-3 with their 42-17 win over Washington State in the Holiday Bowl. But considering that they only outgained their Big Ten opponents by +34.6 net YPG, head coach Mark Dantonio’s team probably overachieved — and they certainly benefited from four net close wins in games decided by one scoring possession. Their offensive line was a weak link last season — and they face an intriguing Sun Devils defensive front with Renell Wren in the middle who almost single-handedly upset Washington last year with a performance that put him on the radar of NFL scouts. Michigan State has not been reliable away from home as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road while also failing to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, Sparty has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games when they are laying the points including failing to cover the point spread in four straight games on the road laying 7 or less points. Additionally, Michigan State has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams outside the Big Ten — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against Pac-12 opponents. I am not a big believer in Edwards returning to the coaching sidelines after his cushy gig at ESPN but he has adopted a CEO model for his responsibilities while installing two good coordinators in Rob Likens on offense and former San Diego State defensive coordinator Danny Gonzalez on defense. So far so good with Gonzalez’s side of the formula as they limited the Roadrunners to just 221 yards of offense last week. Arizona State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The offense is led by senior Manny Wilkins who is a dangerous gunslinger when healthy. The third-year starter has a dynamic group of wide receivers led by a potential All-American in N’Keal Harry. Wilkins completed 16 of 24 passes last week for 237 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions last week. Wilkins has helped the Sun Devils cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games at home. Arizona State has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against Big Ten opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The trip out west can be very precarious for Big Ten teams — especially for nationally televised games at night. The forecast is for a very hot night in Tempe as well which will only make the Spartans more uncomfortable. Expect a close game. 10* CFB Michigan State-Arizona State ESPN Special with the Arizona State Sun Devils (394) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (393). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Stanford Cardinal (388) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (387). THE SITUATION: USC (1-0) enters this game coming off a 43-21 win over UNLV last week as a 24.5-point favorite. Stanford (1-0) also won their opening game of the season with their 31-10 win over San Diego State as a 14-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINAL MINUS THE POINTS: Stanford’s defense flexed their muscles by holding the Aztecs to only 263 yards of offense. The Cardinal returns six starters from a group that gave up too much yardage but still tied for 34th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 22.7 PPG. Stanford was 9-5 last year but finished their season with a loss to these Trojans in the Pac-12 Championship Game by a 31-28 score before then losing to TCU in the Alamo Bowl by a 39-37 score. Four of the five losses for the Cardinal last season were by a field goal or less — so they were very close to a very nice season. They return nine starters on offense including junior quarterback K.J. Costello who completed 21 of 31 passes for 332 yards with four touchdown passes. The team is led by senior Bryce Love who is a Heisman Trophy candidate after using for 2118 yards last year despite being hobbled with a host of injuries last season. Love rushed for only 29 yards last week on 18 carries — and Stanford as a team managed only 50 rushing yards but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in their last game. The Cardinal host this game where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. Stanford has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. USC has been inconsistent under fourth-year head coach Clay Helton as they are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread. Too often, this USC team plays uninspired — and that is a risk against a Cardinal team they defeated twice last year with a 42-24 win on September 9th before following that up in the Pac-12 Championship Game. The Trojans finished 11-3 last year after losing to Ohio State in the Citrus Bowl by a 24-7 score. Those eleven wins included a fortunate three net close wins in games decided by one possession. Thirteen starters return but this group lost a lot of talent to the NFL including their QB Sam Darnold who will be starting on Monday for the Jets. USC is relying on a true freshman quarterback in J.T. Daniels — and this will be his first game playing in a hostile environment with it being a nationally televised night game to boot. As it is, the Trojans are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games on the road — and they gave failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. USC has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in the month of September — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog which includes their last three road games when getting up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: Stanford has had this game circled all off-season given their two losses to USC last year. Both those games were away from home. Playing this game in Palo Alto with an experienced quarterback facing a true freshman should make a huge difference this team that is better-coached under David Shaw than the Trojans under Helton. 25* CFB Fox-TV Game of the Month with the Stanford Cardinal (388) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (387). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) Warhawks (380) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (379). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (1-0) began their season by pulling the upset on the road at UCLA last Saturday by a 26-17 score as a 14-point underdog. Miami (OH) (0-1) looks to bounce-back from a 35-28 upset loss at home to Marshall as a 1-point favorite last week. This game will be played at the home of the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium for these neighboring Ohio rivals.

REASONS TO TAKE MIAMI (OH) PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): Cincinnati is likely to experience a letdown after traveling out west to shock the Bruins in the opening game of the Chip Kelly era out there. The Bearcats were actually outgained by -2 yards in that game but controlled the time of possession against the up-tempo Kelly offense by keeping the UCLA defense on the field for 34:21 minutes of that game. But Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after an upset victory as a road underdog. The Bearcats have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win while also covering the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Cincinnati returned 12 starters from last year’s 4-8 squad that was outgained by -77 net YPG in American Athletic Conference play last year. The Bearcats offense was just tied for 110th in the FBS by scoring 20.9 PPG which is perhaps why second-year head coach Luke Fickell decided to tap redshirt freshman Desmond Ridder as his starting quarterback over senior QB Hayden Moore. Ridder completed 13 of 24 passes but managed only 100 passing yards. Cincy lacked game-breakers on offense last year — and generating only 304 yards last week against UCLA did little to alleviate those concerns despite sophomore running back Michael Warren II rushing for 142 yards while needing 35 carries to get there. The Bearcats allowed only 306 yards last week which might speak more to the state of the Bruins’ offense implementing Kelly’s schemes (and their senior transfer quarterback Wilton Speight left that game with an injury) than it did about the quality of their defense. Cincinnati allowed at least 31 points eight times last season while ranking 100th in the nation in 3rd Down defense by allowing opponents to generate first downs in 43.3% of those plays. Moving forward, the Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games against non-conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. I don’t love this team playing away from home for the second straight week — especially with a rookie QB. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games played on a neutral field. Miami (OH) should come out inspired as they have rebounded to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after suffering an upset loss at home as the favorite — and this includes them covering the point spread in three of those last four situations. This Warhawks team may be a sleeping giant with sixteen starters returning from last year’s team that finished 5-7. Fifth-year head coach Chuck Martin has to see his team through in close games as they are an awful 5-18 in one-possession games in his tenure after last week’s 7-point loss. While it would be wrong to excuse many of the mental mistakes that have cost this team in these close games, the Regression Gods do tend to make appearances for teams that suffer a disproportionate number of losses in close games. This is a better team than their record has indicated over the last few seasons — which is why they might explode with a very nice season before things are said and done. They outgained the Thundering Herd in that loss with their senior QB Gus Ragland completed 25 of 46 passes for 357 yards with three TD passes and no interceptions. The Redhawks rushed for only 87 yards last week despite their top five rushers returning from last year’s team along with Maurice Thomas who missed last year with an injury. Miami has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in their last game. And despite their disappointing record in one-possession games, they have covered the point spread in expected close games where they were listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Redhawks have a final chip on their shoulder with them being motivated to avenge a 21-17 upset loss to the Bearcats last season as 3.5-point home favorites last September 16th. It will be very easy to Martin to motivate his team this week — and defeating this Cincinnati team will go a long way to make up for the close losses that they have suffered even to begin this season. 25* CFB Non-Conference Revenge Game of the Year Miami (OH) Warhawks (380) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (379). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the South Carolina Gamecocks (348) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (347). THE SITUATION: Georgia (1-0) opened their season last week with an easy 45-0 shutout win over Austin Peay. South Carolina (1-0) also impressed with a 49-15 win at home over Coastal Carolina last Saturday as a 31-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GAMECOCKS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bulldogs fancy themselves as a Top-Five college football program after reaching the National Championship Game last year. The Georgia football team rarely lacks for talent — but consistency and winning under pressure situations has constantly plagued this program. They lost a ton of talent to the NFL in the offseason while returning thirteen starters. While third-year head coach Kirby Smart is recruiting very well, there are some big pieces to replace from last year’s group. The offense lost an All-American left tackle in Isaiah Wynn while the defense must replace standout leaders in linebackers Roquan Smith and Lorenzo Carter along with free safety Dominic Sanders who all took their talents to the NFL. The team also has a potential quarterback controversy brewing with 5-star freshman Justin Fields challenging sophomore Jake Fromm for playing time. This is a fragile foundation for a program that tends to suffer from over-confidence. That is a dangerous combination when facing this Gamecocks team against which they are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 encounters which includes going just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Columbia. South Carolina enters this game with a bunch of momentum as they generated 561 yards in their win over the Chanticleers. The Gamecocks are 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 40 points. Furthermore, South Carolina is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after a win by at least 20 points while also having covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 home games after a win by at least 20 points. The Gamecocks return fourteen starters from their team that finished 9-4 after defeating Michigan in the Outback Bowl by a 26-19 score. The offense returns 98% of their rushing yards along with 80% of their receiving yards and 100% of their passing yards with junior Jake Bentley once again under center. This is the best team that head coach Will Muschamp has put together in his three years at South Carolina — and he is recruiting better than Steve Spurrier was at the end of his tenure. Injuries held this team back last year as they lost 42 games to injuries from prospective starters. They remain very tough at home where they are 50-14 straight-up over their last sixty-four games. The Gamecocks are also 7-1-3 ATS in their last 11 games in SEC play.

FINAL TAKE: South Carolina lost by a 24-10 score in Athens last year as a 24-point underdog back on November 4th. This Gamecocks team looks improved while that Bulldogs team is a step to two behind last year’s team at this point of the season. With South Carolina home underdogs getting around 10 points, take the dogs while expecting a much closer game than expected for Georgia. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the South Carolina Gamecocks (348) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (347). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Virginia Tech Hokies (219) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (220). THE SITUATION: Virginia Tech (0-0) enters this season coming off a 9-4 campaign that concluded with a 30-21 loss to Oklahoma State in the Camping World Bowl. Florida State (0-0) looks to rebound from a disappointing 7-6 season that ended on a positive note when they crushed Southern Miss by a 42-13 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HOKIES PLUS THE POINTS: I am not sure why the Seminoles are being given so much respect that they are laying a touchdown against one of high quality program like Virginia Tech. Jimbo Fisher jumped ship to Texas A&M because in large measure of the financial package the Aggies were offering him to make College Station his home. But I would think that Fisher stays at Florida State if he was encouraged about his team’s prospects moving forward. Only twelve starters return from last year’s team. The Seminoles were snakebite by injuries as they lost 39 games to projected starters being hit with the injury bug including their starting quarterback Deondre Francois. But when do the excuses end for a football program that has won only ten of their last nineteen games in ACC play? The Seminoles lost their usual handful of players from that last year’s group to the NFL. They have hired Willie Taggart to be their head coach after his success at South Florida got him the job at Oregon last year that he abandoned with the Seminoles offer. Taggart is installing new systems on both sides of the football so there will likely be growing pains. He inherits players that were used in a Run-Pass Option offense so these players may have some difficulties moving to Taggart’s up-tempo power spread attack. This is a tricky proposition for a team that is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in the moths of September. The defense lost six of their top seven tacklers and return only four starters. Additionally, Florida State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range — and they have failed to cover their last three home games with the over/under in that range. The Seminoles are also 0-6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in conference action. Furthermore, Taggart-coached teams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games with the Total set in the 7.5 to 14 point range — and his teams have also failed to cover the point spread in 7  of their last 11 home games with the Total in the 52.5 to 56 point range. Virginia Tech returns twelve starters as well on a team that sees 3/4ths of the roster being sophomores or younger. But this young group are Justin Fuente players in his third year in Blacksburg — and teams often make a big jump in the third year of new coach’s tenure. The Hokies still have their rock on defense in defensive coordinator Bud Foster in his 32nd season as a coach. He oversaw a team that ranked 4th in the nation by holding teams to just 14.8 PPG. While it might be too much to ask of this group to replicate that feat, this should once again be an outstanding defense under Foster. The offense is led by sophomore QB Josh Jackson who made 13 starts last year. He passed for 2991 yards last year while posting a nice 20 touchdown passes to 9 interception ratio. A mediocre offensive line made things difficult for him last year — but both he and that line that returns three starters including a 6’7 beast at right tackle in Yoshua Nijman should be improved this year. This will be the first time since moving to Virginia Tech that Fuente will have his starting quarterback back under center. The Hokies have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the month of September — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 34 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: Virginia Tech may have a ceiling regarding how good their football program can be — but they more consistently come close to hitting that ceiling year-after-year. Florida State seems to have taken a step back — particularly on their offensive line. The Hokies likely have the better defense in this game which should help them keep things very close even on the road. 25* CFB ESPN Game of the Month with the Virginia Tech Hokies (219) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (220). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (217) minus the points versus the LSU Tigers (218). THE SITUATION: Miami (0-0) returns to the field after the finished last year with a 10-3 record after a 34-24 loss to Wisconsin. LSU (0-0) completed a 9-4 campaign last season with a 21-17 loss to Notre Dame. This game is played on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in the home of the Dallas Cowboys in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES MINUS THE POINTS: Miami had National Championship aspirations in the month of November last year after winning their first ten games of the season. But we expected their bubble to burst — and they lost their last three games of the season with an upset loss at Pittsburgh before getting crushed by Clemson in the ACC Championship Game and then losing to the Badgers in their bowl game. But this team was also hampered with a slew of injuries by the end of the year that exposed the lack of depth that head coach Mark Richt has yet to establish in South Beach. Two outstanding recruiting classes is getting Richt closer to where he wants to be — and his team is pretty much healthy as they begin this season. They return fourteen starters from last year’s team including their fifth year senior quarterback, Malik Rosier. This is the best team Richt has had since moving from Georgia to Miami — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams outside the ACC. The Hurricanes have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games as the favorite — including covering the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when laying 3.5 to 10 points. And in their last 6 games in the month of September, Miami  has covered the point spread 5 times. LSU is just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in the month of September which might speak to the preparation skills of their head coach Ed Orgeron. Together, these team trends produce our specific 31-13-1 ATS combined angle for this situation. The journeyman has proven capable of taking over teams in decline as he has served as the interim head coach both for the Tigers and with USC but his head coaching stint at Ole Miss was uninspiring. He could not make things work out with offensive wunderkind Matt Canada last year as he invested in too much micromanaging which led to Canada departing to Maryland (where he just coached the Terrapins to an upset win over Texas serving as their interim head coach to the suspended D.J. Durkin). I cannot argue with the conventional wisdom that this LSU program is in decline. The recruiting is down a bit with two of the key additions to this roster being graduate transfers from the football hot bed that is Texas Tech. Orgeron also suspended a handful of players for this game including a returning starter and emerging star in sophomore linebacker Tyler Taylor. This team has only four senior starters this season of the ten starters they returned from last year. As always, this team took significant hits by losing players that moved on to the NFL. They probably made a good move in grabbing a disgruntled graduated senior quarterback in Joe Burrow who transferred from Ohio State after losing the quarterback battle with Dwayne Haskins. It might speak more to the sorry state of the LSU offense that is so easy to see a fifth senior who has never started a game in college as an obvious upgrade at the position — but I remain skeptical of the team’s likely move to a more pass-happy attack under new offensive coordinator Steve Emsinger. That decision may speak more to the lack of a bell-cow running back on the roster.

FINAL TAKE: LSU lost their first four games vis-a-vis the point spread by -16.5 PPG before covering the point spread in their next seven games by +7.8 PPG. I think the former numbers speak to Orgeron’s acumen to prepare his team early while that good seven-game stretch speaking to the public overreacting to a few losing tickets with LSU’s name on it. The action on this game is almost split (Miami has a narrow edge from my latest scan). Look for a better-prepared Hurricanes team to take care of business. 10* CFB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (217) minus the points versus the LSU Tigers (218). Best of luck for us — Frank.

No play -- I mistakenly loaded another game into this Middle Tennessee slot. Sorry about the error.

Thanks,

Frank

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (211) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (212). THE SITUATION: Michigan (0-0) closed out a disappointing 8-5 campaign last year with a listless 26-19 loss to South Carolina in the Outback Bowl. Notre Dame (0-0) comes off a 21-17 win over LSU to conclude a 10-3 season in last year’s Citrus Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES PLUS THE POINTS: The en vogue Hot Take topic this week on sports cable shows has been whether or not Jim Harbaugh is on the hot seat this year at Michigan. Who exactly do these folks think is going to be banging down the doors to take the Michigan job if they dump their prodigal son in Harbaugh after four seasons? Bill Belichick? Harbaugh’s seat is ice-cold in Ann Arbor. But he certainly feels some urgency to start racking up some wins against traditional rivals. The Hot Takers point to Harbaugh’s inability to develop a quarterback in his first three seasons at Michigan while neglecting to remember that he took a graduate transfer in Jake Rudock who had lost his starting job at Iowa and made him into an NFL quarterback still rostered down the road with the Lions in just one year of stewardship with him. Harbaugh also nurtured the growth of a not highly recruited Wilton Speight who will be starting for Chip Kelly at UCLA to start this season. The fact is that two quarterbacks on Harbaugh’s roster failed to meet expectations. Shane Morris was a 5-star QB recruited by the previous head coach Brady Hoke who failed to develop in Harbaugh’s pro-style offense and lost his job to despite being a year older than Speight as a redshirt sophomore. Sensing trouble, Harbaugh brought in another transfer in Houston QB John O’Korn who simply could never learn how to read defenses. Both Morris and O’Korn were too loose with the football which is a red-hot negative for Harbaugh — especially with the outstanding defenses that he has overseen in his tenure at Michigan. Harbaugh has played the transfer card once again this year by acquiring junior Shea Patterson from Ole Miss who was granted a hardship waiver to be immediately eligible after being lied to by the despicable Hugh Freeze about the inevitable sanctions coming down on the Rebels’ football program. Patterson was a 5-star recruit coming out of high school who has shown flashes of brilliance in his first two years at Ole Miss. He was challenged in the offseason by something Harbaugh has yet to experience at Michigan: three other QBs on the depth chart that were his specific recruits. These trials and tribulations at QB aside, the overriding reason why the Wolverines have underachieved in Harbaugh’s tenure has been the play of the offensive line. The program was still feeling the effects of the Rich Rodriguez era who recruited smaller and quicker offensive linemen for his spread option attack when Harbaugh arrived. Harbaugh has also had scheme issues with assistant coaches on offense wanting to accomplish conflicting agendas. Harbaugh has been honest about these missteps during the offseason and swallowed hard by letting one of his long-time cronies in Tim Drevno go who was a co-offensive coordinator along with the offensive line coach. Harbaugh has brought in a new offensive line coach in Ed Warinner who coached Ohio State to a National Championship with that unit. He also tapped former Florida head coach Jim McElwain to serve on the offensive coaching staff with the other offensive coordinator from last year in Pep Hamilton who brings with him an NFL pedigree. Say what you want about Harbaugh but he is not afraid of bringing strong personalities into the room — and he is not standing pat with recent results. That philosophy has worked wonders on the defensive side of the football where third-year defensive coordinator Don Brown has built a dynasty with the talent at his disposal in Ann Arbor after coordinating the nation’s top defense at Boston College back in 2015. Michigan returns nine starters on defense along with fourteen of the top sixteen tacklers from a group that was 3rd in the nation by holding opponents to just 271.0 total YPG. It is the strength on defense led by one of the best defensive lines in the nation that makes the Wolverines the strong play tonight. Notre Dame lost two All-American offensive linemen from last year who were both drafted in the first round of the NFL draft. The Irish are now inexperienced on their offensive line while seeing only one player at the same position from last year’s bowl game. That is not a good sign for an offense that scored only 18.4 PPG in their last four games last year after scoring 41.3 PPG in their first nine contests. It was a breakdown on the offensive line that caused their problems late in the season as they averaged only 145 rushing YPG over those last four games while allowing 16 sacks. Senior Brandon Wimbush looks to be the starting quarterback again this season despite completing only 49.5% of his passes while demonstrating difficulties to adapt to complicated defenses that he will surely see this evening. Don’t be surprised if head coach Brian Kelly calls on redshirt sophomore Ian Book before this game is over after a good spring and a strong outing in their bowl game win. But the team will be without senior running back Dexter Williams who has been suspended for the first four games of this season. The Fighting Irish lost a lot of talent to the NFL from last year while seeing their national recruiting rankings dip over the years from years of disappointment in not returning to the College Football Playoff. Kelly also had to hire his third defensive coordinator in three years with Clark Lea promoted to the position after Mike Elko decided the defensive coordinator position at Texas A&M was more attractive than the one in South Bend. The Irish have failed to cover the point spread in expected close games in 4 of their last 6 contest when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Notre Dame has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against Big Ten opponents. Michigan has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games in the month of September — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Harbaugh’s teams have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games with the Total in that 42.5 to 49 range.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan opened as the small road favorite in this game but has been bet down with Notre Dame being the favorite in some spots as the home team in this nationally televised night game. Trust the wisdom in the oddsmakers when they originally posted this line. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Michigan Wolverines (211) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (212). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Texas Mean Green (182) minus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (181). THE SITUATION: North Texas (0-0) begins their season coming off a 9-5 campaign that culminated in a 50-30 loss to Troy in the New Orleans Bowl. SMU (0-0) was 7-6 last season after an upset 51-10 loss they suffered at the hands of Louisiana Tech.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MEAN GREEN MINUS THE POINTS: North Texas returns seventeen starters from last year’s group that played nine bowl teams. The Mean Green need to focus on reducing their turnovers this season: in their nine wins, they had just a -2 net turnover margin but they endured a -9 net turnover margin in their five losses. UNT had a +1 net turnover margin in 2016 so third-year head coach Seth Littrell should receive a positive visit from the Regression Gods this year. Littrell should have his team fired up to play this game after they were crushed by the Mustangs last year in Dallas by a 54-32 score in a game where they suffered a -2 net turnover margin that overwhelmed their matching SMU’s 493 total yards in that game. Now this game is played in Denton where the Mean Green have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 home games. UNT returns nine players on offense led by QB Mason Fine who oversaw a group that finished 9th in the nation by scoring 35.5 PPG. The Mean Green have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played in the month of September. And in their last 9 games played against teams outside Conference USA, North Texas has covered the point spread 7 times. SMU returns fourteen starters but they only have seven seniors on their roster making them a less experienced group overall than last year. The Mustangs defense needs plenty of work as they allowed 476.7 total YPG which was 121st in the FBS — and this is why this game risks being a blowout for the home team. SMU has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games in expected high-scoring games where the Total was set at 70 or higher. This will be Sonny Dykes first regular season game coaching for this team after he was hired just in time to coach the team during their bowl game last December. Dykes teams have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games with the Total set at 70 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The road team has lost eight of the last nine games in the dubbed Safeway Bowl between these two teams. Defense has never been a strong suit for Dykes-coached teams — and inherits a group that needed a lot of work. Look for North Texas to avenge their September loss last season. 10* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster with the North Texas Mean Green (182) minus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (181). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Washington Huskies (193) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (194). THE SITUATION: Washington (0-0) begins their season coming off a 10-3 campaign that ended in a disappointing 35-28 loss to Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl. Auburn (0-0) saw their National Championship aspirations thwarted by a loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship before they limped through their bowl game in an uninspired 34-27 loss to Central Florida in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Washington opened as a small favorite in the -2.5 range but this game was bet the other way where now it is Auburn laying up to field goal in many spots. Much has been said about this being a de-facto home game for the Tigers who not only are just a short 90 minute drive east on I-20 to Atlanta but will be playing their third straight game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium after the SEC Championship Game then the Chick-Fil-A Bowl. What does not get mentioned in that spiel is that Auburn got blown out in both those games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games played in a dome. The Tigers lost a ton of talent that moved on from the NFL from that team last year. The biggest concern is on the offensive line where they lost five senior starters from last year’s team. Washington lost their massive defensive tackle Vita Vea from their defense who took this talents to the NFL — but they remain a loaded defensive team that returns nine starters with 72% of their tackles back from last year’s team that finished 5th in the FBS by allowing 16.1 PPG while also ranking 8th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 298.0 total YPG. The Huskies defensive backfield may be the best group in the nation with six players returning who had at least six starts last year — and that group allowed only 5 touchdown passes in Pac-12 play which was the lowest amount since USC in 2008. Washington has key talent returning on offense as well led by senior quarterback Jake Browning and senior running back Myles Gaskin. Injuries decimated the wide receiver unit last year but Browning and Gaskin were the core of the offense two years ago that made the College Football Playoff. The Huskies have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games in the first-half of the season including covering the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games played in the opening two weeks of the season. Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral field — and they are just 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams outside the SEC.

FINAL TAKE: Auburn is being given a lot of unearned credit for this game being played in Atlanta despite their track record in Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Too many bettors are forgetting about the talent Chris Petersen has accumulated in Spokane — and this is probably the best team he has ever coached including his great teams at Boise State. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Washington Huskies (193) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (194). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wyoming Cowboys (206) plus the points versus the Washington State (205). THE SITUATION: Washington State Cougars (0-0) kicks off their season coming off an 8-5 campaign that concluded with a 42-17 loss to Michigan State in the Holiday Bowl. Wyoming (1-0) played last Saturday in a dominant 29-7 win at New Mexico State where they were 5.5-point favorites.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: We had a strong play on the Under in that Wyoming game last week and were rewarded with a dominant defensive effort from them as they held the Aggies to just 135 yards of offense and a mere seven first downs. Senior running back Nico Evans exploded with 190 rushing yards on 24 carries and two touchdowns while helping the offense control the Time of Possession for 40:41 in that game. Redshirt freshman Tyler Vander Waal looked steady under center replacing the departed Josh Allen as he completed 13 of 22 passes for 137 yards but did not turn the ball over. The Cowboys return home in a great position to build off that momentum as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after both a straight-up win and after a point spread victory. Wyoming outgained New Mexico State by +315 net yards in that win — and they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +125 yards while also covering the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +175 net yards. Furthermore, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 175 passing yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Wyoming has a significant home-field advantage in the high altitude of Laramie which is 7220 feet above sea level — they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home. This is a difficult opening game for a Washington State team that has lost five of their last six opening games under head coach Mike Leach. The Cougars have also lost seven straight opening games to a new season when on the road. This team’s fitness will certainly be challenged by the thin air in Laramie that they will not be familiar with. As it is, Washington State has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games in the opening two weeks of a new season. The Cougars return just ten starters from last year’s group with Leach still officially noncommittal regarding who will replace their quarterback Luke Falk. This will be the first time in seven seasons where Washington State is unsettled at the QB position. Leach has a couple of jucos and a true freshman in the mix but it will likely be a graduate transfer in Gardner Minshew who came over from East Carolina who will get the call. The Cougars have been last in the FBS in five of the last six seasons in rushing attempts so this is not a program that is built to have the running game make things easier for their quarterback. The defense lost two of the key contributors last year in All-American defensive end Hercules Mata’afa and defensive coordinator Alex Brinch who oversaw significant improvement with that unit. Washington State has won sixteen of their last twenty games at home to demonstrate a strong home field advantage — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. The Cougars have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against a non-conference opponent.

FINAL TAKE: Wyoming has a significant advantage in having their first game under their belts. They return home with confidence that makes them a dangerous underdog in this game against a football team with a history of poor starts to a new season — especially on the road. 25* CFB CBS-Sports Network Game of the Month with the Wyoming Cowboys (206) plus the points versus the Washington State (205). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (173) minus the points versus the Maryland Terrapins (174). THE SITUATION: Texas (0-0) enters this game coming off a 7-6 campaign that concluded with a 33-16 win over Missouri in the Texas Bowl. Maryland (0-0) comes off a disappointing 4-8 campaign. While the Terrapins are the technical home team for this contest, the game will be played on a technical neutral field at FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland which is the home of the Washington Redskins.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS MINUS THE POINTS: The Terrapins are a mess right now amidst the tragedy in the offseason where one of their players passed away during a summer practice. The debacle has third-year head coach D.J. Durkin suspended for this game and fighting to keep his job after the utter failure in control to maintain the safety of his players. New offensive coordinator Matt Canada will serve as the interim head coach after coming off from LSU in the offseason. What Maryland did not need to enter this season was more turmoil after they lost seven of their last eight games to close out a once-promising season. The Terrapins were blitzed in Big Ten play by being outgained by a whopping 128 net YPG. They are likely to start a freshman QB this afternoon in Kasim Hill who looked good in three games last year before suffering an ACL injury that ended his season. But this remains a Maryland team that has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games as an underdog. Texas returns fourteen starters from last year’s group that lost four games by four points or less. This was also a team riddled with injuries as they ranked 13th in the nation with 38 games lost by prospective starters to injuries. This team should make a major leap in quality of play in the second-year under head coach Tom Herman. The defense sees seven starters return from a group that tied for 29th in the FBS by allowing only 21.2 PPG. The Longhorns led the nation in 3rd down defense while ranking 4th in the nation by stuffing opponent’s rushing plays at or behind the line of scrimmage in 27.1% of those plays. The offense is the area that should the most immediate growth with Herman being an offensive guru - he has tapped sophomore Sam Ehlinger as his starter. Texas has covered the point spread in 6 straight games against teams outside the Big 12 — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games played on a neutral field. Additionally, the Longhorns have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing in September. Lastly, Texas will have revenge on their minds after being shocked by the Terrapins at home last year by a 51-41 score. Maryland rushed for 263 yards in that opening game last year — but this Longhorns defense has come a long way since that September 2nd contest.

FINAL TAKE: Texas has had this game circled on their schedule for a long time now as they will be very motivated to start out strong after getting upset as 19-point favorites last year at this time. They should smell blood in the proverbial water with these Terrapins rocked with scandal. 10* CFB Texas-Maryland FS1-TV Special with the Texas Longhorns (173) minus the points versus the Maryland Terrapins (174). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Colorado State Rams (149) plus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (148). Colorado State (0-1) looks to bounce-back from a disappointing effort last week in their 43-34 upset loss at home to Hawai’i last Saturday despite being 17-point favorites in that game. Colorado (0-0) makes their debut this season after suffering a 5-7 campaign last season.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Colorado State was not ready to face the Rainbow Warriors new Run-and-Shoot passing offense as they surrendered 617 yards in that contest with 418 of those yards being in the air. The Rams defense has a new staff this season led by new defensive coordinator John Jancek who had served as the coordinator for the Tennessee defense from 2013-15. He had his unit switch from a 3-4 to a 4-3 scheme and has to be very frustrated with the efforts of his group. But that should have ensured an alert group of players in practice this week. As it is, Colorado State has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The Rams have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last contest. Colorado State can take some positives from that game as graduate transfer K.J. Carta Samuels looked very good running the offense. The former Washington quarterback completed 34 of 50 passes for 537 yards while throwing 5 touchdown passes. Overall, the Rams generated 653 yards against Hawai’i — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after gaining at least 575 yards in their last game while also covering the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after passing for at least 375 yards. Moving forward, Colorado State is 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 games when facing an opponent outside the Mountain West Conference. Colorado returns only ten starters from last year’s team that took a big step back from a 10-4 season back on 2016. The concern for sixth-year head coach Mike MacIntyre is just how swift the decline was last season as not only did they lose seven of their nine games in Pac-12 play but they were outgained by -87 net YPG against those opponents. The team returns junior Steven Montez at quarterback but they must replace their running back Phillip Lindsay along with their top four starters at wide receiver and three straight starters on the offensive line. The defense struggled to stop the run last year as they allowed their opponents to average 5.2 Yards-Per-Carry while ranking 109th by giving up 208.0 rushing YPG. They return four of their starters in that front seven — and they have to replace Isaiah Oliver in their defensive backfield who left for the NFL from a group that was 94th against the pass. This game will be played on a neutral field in Denver at the Broncos Stadium at Mile High — and the Buffaloes are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games played on grass.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado State should play much better this week on defense with the benefit of a game under their belts. It will be Colorado that will be dealing with opening day jitters and rust in this contest. While the Rams are very frustrated with their loss last week to Hawai’i, that all can be rectified by upsetting their in-state rival this week. Expect a close game where having the points will be quite valuable. 25* CFB Game of the Month with  Colorado State Rams (149) plus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (148). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Western Michigan Broncos (144) plus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (143). THE SITUATION: Syracuse (0-0) begins their season coming off a lackluster 4-8 campaign last year. Western Michigan (0-0) was 6-6 last year and also missed out on a bowl like the Orange.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: Western Michigan was ravaged with injuries last season — they lost twenty-one players to season-ending injuries. The defense was hit hard with the loss of five safeties that just wreaks havoc on positional depth. But the Broncos were hit even worse on offense where they lost five running backs, five wide receivers and their starting quarterback Jon Wassink who suffer a season-ending injury in Week Eight. Western Michigan was a solid 5-3 with Wassink starting the game but lost three of their last four games once he went on the shelf with that depleted offense. Yet the Broncos still ended the season tied for 25th by scoring 33.9 PPG. This has the potential to be an explosive offense — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games in expected high-scoring games with the Total set at least at 63. Wassink led the Mid-American Conference by completing 64.2% of their passes. They should play very well tonight with this opportunity to upset a Power-Five Conference opponent. Western Michigan has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games in the first month of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games as an underdog. The Broncos have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against non-conference opponents. Syracuse has lost fourteen of their last eighteen games when opening their season on the road. The Orange collapsed on defense last year as they allowed 54 PPG with that unit exposed from their lack of depth. That unit may have simply been exhausted for being on the field too long in the Dino Babers hurry-up offense that has the residual negative effect of keeping his defense on the field. But this is also a team has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the month of August. Lastly, Syracuse is just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on field turf.

FINAL TAKE: This shapes up to be a high-scoring game. Western Michigan is just one year removed from their 13-1 campaign and remain a dangerous Group of Five opponent for any Power-Five team. Expect a close game where the Broncos have the opportunity to pull the upset. 10* CFB Friday Night Kick Off with the Western Michigan Broncos (144) plus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (143). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (136) minus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (135). THE SITUATION: Purdue (0-0) finished with a 7-6 record last year after they defeated Arizona by a 38-35 score in the Foster Farms Bowl. Northwestern (0-0) concluded a strong 10-3 season with their 24-23 victory over Kentucky in the Music City Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BOILERMAKERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Wildcats won last year’s meeting between these two teams back on November 11th by a 23-13 score as a 6.5-point favorite. Purdue will also be looking to avenge a rough 45-17 loss to Northwestern the last time these two teams played in West Lafayette. The Boilermakers had a 10-0 early lead in that game before surrendering a whopping 605 yards in that blowout loss. Purdue has lost their last four games against the Wildcats but this will be just their second meeting against them with second-year head coach Jeff Brohm. He leads the Boilermakers to a 7-6 winning record last year which was a big improvement over their 3-9 campaign in 2016. Brohm is an offensive coach but the team’s progress was best measured by their significantly better play on defense as they ranked 24th in the FBS by allowing only 20.5 PPG. Only four starters return from that unit but defensive coordinators Nick Holt and Anthony Poindexter have the benefit of working with these players for over a year now. Brohm has not tipped his hand regarding who his starting quarterback will be after relying on senior David Blough and junior Elijah Sindelar last season. It looks like it will be Sindelar will get the nod (although I suspect both players will get time in this game). The big-armed QB passed for 376 yards against Northwestern last season. If there are some speed bumps with the Boilermakers defense this year, their offense that returns nine starters should keep them in this game. Purdue has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as a favorite — and the Boilermakers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games in the first half of the season. Northwestern enjoyed a very fortunate season last year as they led the nation with the fewest games lost to injury while benefiting from winning all three of their games decided by one scoring possession. The big question for this team is the health of their 5th-year senior quarterback Clayton Thorson who tore his ACL in the Music City Bowl. While head coach Pat Fitzgerald has not announced who will be his starting QB for this game, Thorson was cleared to take part in practices earlier this month and will likely. However, Thorson has yet to see his recovered knee tested against live competition. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in the first two weeks of a new season.

FINAL TAKE: Brohm proved he was one of the best coaches in the country by immediately making the Boilermakers competitive after building a very strong program at Western Kentucky. Northwestern enters this season probably a bit overvalued — and their QB situation is less than ideal with Thorson returning from injury. 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Month with the Purdue Boilermakers (136) minus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (135). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tulane Green Wave (140) plus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (139). THE SITUATION: Wake Forest (0-0) comes off an 8-5 season last year that culminated by 55-52 win over Texas A&M in the Belk Bowl. Tulane (0-0) is looking to reach a bowl game this year after a 5-7 campaign in 2018.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GREEN WAVE PLUS THE POINTS: Tulane returns fourteen starters from last year’s team in the third season under head coach Willie Fritz. The offense should make a jump this year after averaging 27.5 PPG as the personnel on the roster continues to better fit the run-first spread option that Fritz oversaw at Georgia Southern before coming over to the Big Easy. His Green Wave teams have steadily improved as their -20 net point differential last year was much better than the -43 net point differential in 2016 and the ugly -199 net point differential in that 2015 year prior to Fritz being wooed from Georgia Southern. Fritz has the quarterback to run this offense with senior Jonathan Banks who made big improvements in the second-half of last season with his passing game as he threw for 565 yards in those two games to offer a better complement to the Tulane ground game. Not coincidentally, the Green Wave upset Houston and almost upset SMU in those two games. This Tulane team was battle-tested last year as they faced nine bowl-eligible teams — and they lost four of these games by 6 points or less. The Green Wave have covered the point spread in 4 straight games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. Tulane has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. Furthermore, Fritz should have his team ready to play as the Green Wave have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in the first-half of the season in his tenure. Wake Forest has lost twenty-two of their last twenty-nine road openers straight-up — so they are prone to slow starts. They will be without their top quarterback on the depth chart in junior Kendall Hinton who was expected to replace the graduated John Wolford. Hinton has been suspended for the first three games of this season. Even worse for head coach Dave Clawson, sophomore Jamie Newman is questionable for this game with a quad injury which leaves the team relying on a true freshman in Sam Hartman as their man under center tonight. Hartman was lower-ranked QB coming out of high school than Newman so this is not a good turn of events for this Demon Deacon team that returned eight other starters on offense. Wake Forest lost some key players on the defensive side of the football so that group may be work in progress early this year. The Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games with the Total set in the 52.5 to 56 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 road games when laying 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Wake Forest opens this season with a number of question marks on both sides of the football which makes them precarious favorites when playing in a hostile environment. Expect a close game. 20* CFB Wake Forest-Tulane CBS Sports Network Special with the Tulane Green Wave (140) plus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (139). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Colorado State Rams (294) minus the points versus the Hawai’i Warriors (293). THE SITUATION: Hawai’i (0-0) closed out last season losing their last five games to conclude a disappointing 3-9 campaign. Colorado State (0-0) comes off a 7-6 season that ended in disappointment when they were upset as 5.5-point favorites to Marshall in the New Mexico Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE COLORADO STATE MINUS THE POINTS: The Rams enters this season returning nine starters from the team. The team had a scare this month with head coach Mike Bobo having a medical issue — but he was cleared to rejoin the team on Wednesday and will be on the sidelines for this opening contest. Colorado State was very close to experiencing a much better year that could have included a spot in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. The team blew a 14-point lead to Boise State with 2 minutes left in the 4th quarter before losing to the Broncos in overtime. The Rams outgained their Mountain West Conference opponents by +76 net YPG but only had a 5-3 record. Suffering three net upsets ruined what could have been a much better final record. Talent remains on this team particularly at running back. They also have an intriguing player at quarterback in graduate transfer K.J. Carta-Samuels who has been the backup at Washington for the last few seasons. Colorado State typically starts strong as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played in the month of August. The Rams also enjoy a strong home-field advantage in the high altitude of Colorado. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored by 14.5 to 17 points — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 home games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. Hawai’i has only one victory in the Mountain Time Zone since 2012 when they joined the Mountain West Conference. They return nine starters for a team that is implementing new schemes on both sides of the football — so this early game is a big challenge for this inexperienced group. They will have a new quarterback under center as well with Dru Brown ending his 22-straight starts by transferring to Oklahoma State in the offseason. The Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games when getting 14.5 to 21 points. Additionally, Hawai’i has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. Lastly, the Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games in Mountain West Conference play.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado State crushed Hawai’i in their last meeting on September 30th by a 51-21 score. It might be tempting to take the Warriors with this opportunity to avenge a loss where they surrendered so many points — but that will be a tough task for this young team so early in the season when adjusting to a new 4-3 defense along with new schemes on offense. Bobo’s teams are reliable at home when they are expected to overwhelm their opponent. 10* CFB Hawaii-Colorado State CBS-Sports Network Special with the Colorado State Rams (294) minus the points versus the Hawai’i Warriors (293). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (151) minus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (152) in the National Championship Game. Georgia (13-1) earned one of the biggest victories in their school’s program history with their 54-48 epic overtime victory over Oklahoma last Monday. But the fact that this history does not include championship game experience may play a role in how this showdown plays out. The Bulldogs have an inferiority complex with the Crimson Tide which will likely rear its ugly head in this game. Most of the teams in the SEC are insecure relative to the Alabama football program. Georgia fired Mark Richt despite him being one of their most successful coaches in their history because he was not leading them into enough championship games — as if the program was rife with those opportunities before they arrived. This is a football culture that still considers the Hershel Walker era as a recent event. The school tried to model themselves off the Crimson Tide program when they replaced Richt with Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart. While Smart has done a good job with the program, he lacks the pedigree and certainly the experience to out-coach his mentor in Nick Saban. Throw in the lack of playoff experience this roster has (as compared to that Clemson team that faced Alabama for the third straight time in the last three years in the playoffs) along with a true freshman at quarterback in Jake Fromm — and the results look like a team happy to be in this National Championship Game but also with likely significant doubts that they can pull off this upset. The Bulldogs showed some weaknesses in their win over the Sooners. Oklahoma generated a whopping 531 yards against what had been considered a stout Georgia defense. 289 of those yards were in the air — and the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Georgia has also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a game where they scored at least 30 points while their opponent also scored at least 30 points. And while the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after covering the point spread in at least three straight games.

Alabama (12-1) has played in the College Football Playoffs in four straight years — and this will be the third straight postseason where they play to win the National Championship. After avenging their 35-31 loss to Clemson in last year’s Championship Game on Monday, this team with eleven returning starters from that team will not be satisfied with just that victory. This is a team that is groomed to win championships each and every season under Saban — and this group is hungry. And while the Bulldogs are talented, this Crimson Tide team has better players. They dominated the Tigers in their 24-6 victory. They held the Clemson offense to just 188 total yards in that game at a paltry 2.69 Yards-Per-Play mark — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 3.25 YPP in their last game. Alabama has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after winning at least six or seven of their last eight games. Additionally, the Crimson Tide has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral field. Alabama has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games played on a field turf. And in their last 11 games as the favorite laying 3.5 to 10 points, the Crimson Tide has covered the point spread 7 times. 25* CFB Alabama-Georgia A-List Special with the Alabama Crimson Tide (151) minus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (152) in the National Championship Game. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (274) minus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (273) in the Sugar Bowl. Alabama (11-1) saw their undefeated season spoiled in the Iron Bowl back on November 25th in a 26-14 upset loss at Auburn as a 5-point favorite. Look for the Crimson Tide to bounce-back with a very strong effort. Alabama has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a point spread loss. The Crimson Tide has also covered the point spread in 42 of their last 63 road games after a straight-up loss. And in their last 7 games after failing to score more than 20 points, Alabama has covered the point spread 5 times. Nick Saban's team will be razor sharp as they look to bounce-back from that loss while also getting the opportunity to avenge their Championship Game loss to Clemson last season. Injuries at linebacker have slowed Alabama over the last month of the regular season -- which is one of the reasons why we went against them against Mississippi State and Auburn. But the Crimson Tide enters this game as healthy as they have been all season. Getting those linebackers back improves a stout defense that was already tops in the nation by allowing only 11.5 PPG. The Alabama offense also ranked 9th in the nation by scoring 39.1 PPG. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing on a neutral field. And in their last 4 games playing on field turf, the Crimson Tide have covered the point spread all 4 times.

Clemson (12-1) has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games played on field turf. The Tigers are riding high having won six straight games since their loss at Syracuse after winning the ACC Championship Game by a 38-3 score over Miami (FL). But this Clemson team may be primed for a big letdown as they look to defend their National Championship now as the hunted team. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after winning at least six straight games. Clemson has covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 33 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games including failing to cover the point spread in three straight games in that situation. The Tigers have not allowed more than 14 points in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than 17 points in four straight games and this includes failing to cover their last three games after not giving up more than 14 points in three straight. Lastly, Clemson has blowout their last three opponents by at least 24 points — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning at least three straight games by at least three touchdowns. 25* CFB Playoff Game of the Year with the Alabama Crimson Tide (274) minus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (273) in the Sugar Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (271) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (272) in the Rose Bowl. Oklahoma (12-1) clinched their spot in the College Football Playoff with their 41-17 win over TCU in the Big 12 Championship Game. The high-powered Sooners offense totaled 461 yards of offense against the Horned Frogs in that rematch — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after generating at least 450 yards in their last game. I am skeptical that the passing attack of this Oklahoma team will work against the speed of the Bulldogs defense. There is a reason why these video game offenses rarely work on a consistent basis in the NFL. It is telling that the Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams from the SEC. Oklahoma has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games played on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games played on a neutral field with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. Additionally, I think this might be the competitive situation where the inexperience of first-year head coach Lincoln Riley begins to rear its ugly head. Remember, he was tapped as the Oklahoma head coach in the summer after Bob Stoops unexpectedly stepped down after eighteen years with the program. Preparing for the Bowl Playoffs is something even seasoned veterans learn from. Lastly for this Sooners team, their defense is only mediocre. Oklahoma allowed opponents to average 240.6 passing YPG which was 88th in the FBS. Overall, Oklahoma allowed 384.8 total YPG which was 59th in the nation and right smack in the middle of all FBS teams.

Georgia (12-1) has won three straight games since their loss at Auburn — culminating with their revenge win over the Tigers in the SEC Championship Game in their 28-7 win at Auburn. The Bulldogs have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a win by at least 20 points. Georgia has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after allowing no more than 14 points in their last game. The Bulldogs averaged 6.68 Yards-Per-Play against Auburn — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after averaging at least 6.25 YPP. Moving forward, Georgia has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when the favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when the favorite on a neutral field. Additionally, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread 4 of their last 5 Bowl games. And in their last 5 games against teams outside the SEC, Georgia has covered the point spread 4 times. 25* CFB Georgia-Oklahoma Rose Bowl Special Feature with the Georgia Bulldogs (271) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (270) plus the points versus the LSU Tigers (269) in the Citrus Bowl. Notre Dame (9-3) limped into this Bowl game having lost two of their last three games after their 38-20 upset loss at Stanford as a 3-point favorite back on November 25th. The Fighting Irish should be very motivated to make a strong showing for themselves in this contest. Notre Dame has lost nine straight Bowl games — so this group has the opportunity to distinguish themselves. This is also the first time all season that the Irish are the underdogs. The Fighting Irish are led by the nation’s best offensive line that was awarded the Joe Moore Award for this distinction in December — so they should be able to push back against the Tigers’ defensive line. The Irish have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after suffering an upset loss. Taking better care of the football will play a big role as they suffered a -3 net turnover margin agains the Cardinal. Notre Dame has failed to cover the point spread in four straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least four straight games. And in their last 23 games played on field turf, the Irish have covered the point spread 14 times.

LSU (9-3) has won three straight games with their 45-21 win over Texas A&M to close out their regular season. With head coach Ed Orgeron whispering about perhaps shaking up his coaching staff, this might not be the most cohesive and focused football program this postseason. They have been fortunate regarding turnovers in their winning streak as they have won the turnover margin in each of their last three games. The Tigers have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games after enjoying at least a +1 net turnover margin in three straight games. LSU were the favorites in all three of those games. Not only have the Tigers then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in at least three straight games as the favorite but they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after covering the point spread in three straight games overall. Their star linebacker Arden Key is out for this game with a knee injury while running back Derrius Guice is still not 100% with his injuries that slowed him down in the second-half of the season. Lastly, LSU has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games against teams outside the SEC. 25* College Football Bowl Game of the Year with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (270) plus the points versus the LSU Tigers (269) in the Citrus Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Auburn Tigers (268) minus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (267) in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl. Central Florida (12-0) might be galvanized to pull the big upset in this game with the knowledge that three of the last four Group of Five football teams earning their one reserved spot in a New Year’s Six Bowl game has won their game. But Western Michigan was undefeated last year as well — and they lost to Wisconsin. This Knights team looks overmatched. While they led the nation by scoring 49.4 PPG, they enjoyed playing weak defenses up and down their schedule. The best defense Central Florida probably faced was against a middling South Florida defensive unit. To compound matters, the Knights ranked 110th in the FBS by allowing 262.8 passing YPG. Furthermore, while their departed head coach Scott Frost is still coaching them for this game, his attentions are certainly divided. Frost has been doing double-duty between preparing his former team for this Bowl game while also traveling to Lincoln to work on recruiting and lay the foundation for his new gig as the head coach at Nebraska. Central Florida is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. The Knights have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams from the SEC. They come off winning the American Athletic Conference Championship Game in a video game result where they generated 726 yards of offense in a 62-55 win in overtime over Memphis. But Central Florida surrendered an incredible 753 yards in that victory including 282 yards on the ground. The Knights have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game.

Auburn (10-3) looks to rebound from their 28-7 loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game as a 5-point underdog. The Tigers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. Auburn has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Tigers are also 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. Auburn has already spoiled two undefeated seasons this year in their first meeting against Georgia as well as against Alabama in the Iron Bowl. This battle tested team also played Clemson this year — making them the only team in the country to have played three of the four teams in the College Playoff (and beating two of them). They should be motivated to put a thumping on this Central Florida team that has been talking trash entering this game. The recruiting differences between these two programs is vast. Auburn is likely to expose the Knights this afternoon. 10* CFB Central Florida-Auburn ESPN Special with the Auburn Tigers (268) minus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (267) in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the South Carolina Gamecocks (265) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (266) in the Outback Bowl. Michigan (8-4) has lost two straight games entering this Bowl game after their 31-20 loss to Ohio State as a 12.5-point underdog to end their regular season. The Wolverines are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. Michigan has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. The team was mired with injuries at quarterback which required them to play senior John O’Korn who simply did not have the ability to successfully check off his primary receiver — and defenses continually burned him on that. Redshirt freshman Brandon Peters showed promise when he was given the opportunity to play — but he suffered a concussion in the Wisconsin game that kept him out in those final two losses. Peters is back for this game which has helped the Wolverines to be favorites laying more than a touchdown — but Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games as the favorite. The Wolverines are also just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 14 games played on grass as will be the case for this contest, Michigan has failed to cover the point spread 10 times.

South Carolina (8-4) looks to bounce-back from their 34-10 loss to Clemson to close out their regular season back on November 25th. The Gamecocks are not being given much respect — the fact that they have a negative net yardage differential is certainly not helping matters. But behind sophomore QB Jake Bentley, this is a group dominated by sophomores and juniors who are anxious to take their team to the next level next season in the third year under head coach Will Muschamp. South Carolina generated just 207 yards of offense against the Tigers — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to generate more than 275 yards in their last game. The Gamecocks are also 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 games after a loss by at least 20 points. South Carolina did pull off four upset wins this season. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and this includes covering the point spread in 3 straight games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. Lastly, the Gamecocks have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when playing on a neutral field. 10* CFB South Carolina-Michigan ESPN2 Special with the South Carolina Gamecocks (265) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (266) in the Outback Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (264) plus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (263) in the Orange Bowl. Miami (FL) (10-2) looks to erase their two-game losing streak and end their season on a positive note after their ugly 38-3 loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game back on December 2nd. The Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in three of their last four games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Miami held the Tigers to just 77 rushing yards in that game — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 100 rushing yards in their last game. The Hurricanes’ defense is legit — they ranked 17th in the nation by allowing only 19.9 PPG. The offense was ravaged with injuries to three key skill position players which severely limited them in the Clemson game. But the month of bowl practices should have improved the running back and wide receiver positions for junior QB Malik Rosier. Miami is, of course, the host team of the Orange Bowl — and they are a perfect 7-0 with an average winning margin of +18.0 PPG. The Hurricanes outgain their visitors by +114.5 net YPG. Miami has covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Miami has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 22 home games as the underdog. Furthermore, the Hurricanes have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams outside the ACC.

Wisconsin (12-1) looks to bounce-back from their deflating 27-21 loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship that not only ruined their conference title hopes but also crushed any National Championship dreams that the team might have harbored. But, frankly, this has always been an overrated team that was propped up by a soft schedule. The Badgers’ non-conference slate consisted of BYU, Florida Atlantic and Utah State — none of which even represent a Power Five Conference. Wisconsin then plays in the weaker West Division of the Big Ten. So when looking at their season statistics, remember that the Badgers surrendered 449 yards of offense to the Buckeyes while managing to generate just 298 yards themselves. The final score made that game appear closer than it really was — and Wisconsin benefited from a 9-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown to stay competitive. Sophomore quarterback Alex Hornbook is way too loose with the football. He threw 15 interceptions this season which makes him playing in a true road game in the Orange Bowl against the Turnover Chain wearing Hurricanes who were second in the nation with a +1.25 net turnover margin per game a downright scary proposition. The Badgers managed only 62 rushing yards in their 32 rushing attempts against Ohio State — and that helps place them into a historical “play-against” angle that has been 73% effective since 1992. Wisconsin holds their opponents to just 92.6 rushing YPG — and favorites in the 3.5 to 10 point range who did not rush for more than 75 yards in their last game and does not allow more than 100 rushing YPG have then failed to cover the point spread in 53 of the last 73 situations where these conditions applied. 25* CFB Wisconsin-Miami (FL) Orange Bowl Special with the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (264) plus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (263). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Washington Huskies (261) plus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (262) in the Fiesta Bowl. Washington (10-2) has won two straight games with their 41-14 win over Washington State in the Apple Bowl back on November 25th. The Huskies have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while Washington allowed 369 passing yards in that game, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. This Huskies defense is outstanding led by All-Americandefensive tackle Vita Vea. Washington ranks 5th in the nation by allowing only 14.5 PPG while also limiting their opponents to just 277.4 total YPG. Defense travels — and the Huskies have outscored their five opponents when away from home by +12.8 PPG while also outgaining them by +70.2 net YPG. Washington has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 5 games in December, the Huskies have covered the point spread 4 games.  

Penn State (10-2) has won three straight games with their 66-3 blowout win at Maryland. The Nittany Lions have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 6 points in their last game. Penn State enjoyed a 24-0 halftime lead against the Terrapins — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 44 games on the road after not allowing more than a field goal in the first-half of their last game. This team will be without their offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead who left the program to take over as head coach at Mississippi State. Some observers consider Moorhead the real genius in this program under head coach James Franklin — and I am one of those individuals. I expect the offense to really miss Moorhead in this game. As it is, the Nittany Lions struggled to run the football against some top defenses: they rushed for 91 yards against Ohio State while managing just 65 rushing yards against Michigan State. Now Penn State will be facing their most difficult opponent yet in stopping the run in this Huskies team that was tops in the nation by allowing only 92.3 rushing YPG. The Nittany Lions have played two straight games Over the Total — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after playing at least two straight Overs. And while Penn State has only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. 25* CFB Washington-Penn State Fiesta Bowl Special with the Washington Huskies (261) plus the points versus the Penn State Nittany Lions (262). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Memphis Tigers (260) minus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (259) in the Liberty Bowl. Iowa State (7-5) has lost three of their last four games with their 20-19 loss at Kansas State as a 2.5-point underdog back on November 25th. The Cyclones are a trendy pick this afternoon being an underdog against a Group of Five program despite having scored upset wins against Oklahoma and TCU this season. But this is a true road game for this Iowa State team playing on Memphis’ home field against the Tigers. The Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 road games after a loss by 7 points or less against a conference rival. Iowa State has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when on the road with the Total set at least at 63. And while the Cyclones held the Wildcats to only 264 yards of offense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game.

Memphis (10-2) looks to bounce-back from their 62-55 loss at Central Florida in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game back on December 2nd. The Tigers were 6.5-point underdogs in that game — and they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Memphis has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread setback. The Tigers are the home hosts for this Liberty Bowl where they were a perfect 7-0 this season with an average winning margin of +19.8 PPG. Memphis outgained their visitors by +89.5 net YPG. The Tigers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games at home. They certainly should be motivated to defeat a Power-Five school that defeated an Oklahoma team that will be in the College Football Playoff on Monday — so Memphis fans can get their Transitive Properties defenses boned up with a victory here. Lastly, the Tigers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. 10* CFB Iowa State-Memphis Liberty Bowl Special with the Memphis Tigers (260) minus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (259). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (258) plus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (257) in the Taxslayer Bowl. Louisville (8-4) closed out their season winning three straight games in decisive fashion — culminating in a 44-17 win at Kentucky. The Cardinals averaged 46 PPG over that stretch while holding those three opponents to just 315 YPG. But the competition was not spectacular with those wins being against the Wildcats along with Virginia and Syracuse. Don’t be surprised to see this Louisville team suffer a letdown now. They are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a win by at least 20 points. The Cardinals are also 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Additionally, while Louisville gained 562 yards against the Kentucky defense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. And in their last 6 games after allowing 20 points or less in their last contest, the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread 5 times. Behind last year’s Heisman Trophy winner in QB Lamar Jackson, this team has the weapons to blow out inferior opponents. But their offensive line tends to be overwhelmed by big and powerful defensive lines from top-tier defensive programs. In their three games against Clemson, NC State and Florida State, Louisville scoring average plummeted to 25.7 PPG. The Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 8 games against teams outside the ACC, Louisville is 1-6-1 ATS.

Mississippi State (8-4) is in the middle of a coaching transition with head coach Dan Mullen along with defensive coordinator Todd Grantham moving to Florida. Former Penn State offensive coordinator Joe Morehead will be taking over the Bulldogs job with special teams coach Greg Knox serving as interim head coach while calling the plays having also been the running backs coach this season. Additionally, junior QB Nick Fitzgerald is out after that gruesome leg injury he suffered in the Egg Bowl which was a 31-28 upset loss for Mississippi State despite being a 14-point favorite to Ole Miss. True freshman QB Kenton Thompson will be under center this afternoon. These circumstances are scaring off many bettors — but not me. I am thrilled that we can get up to 7 points with this tough SEC team that defeated LSU while playing a very competitive game with Alabama. The defense remains in tact for this game (as opposed to Louisville who has two star players skipping the game to avoid risking injury for the April NFL draft). The Bulldogs ranked 10th in the nation by holding their opponents to 302.0 total YPG. Thompson was solid in his debut against the Rebels as he completed 13 of 27 passes for 195 yards in relief while adding another 121 yards on 26 carries on the ground. The dual threat QB should benefit from the bowl practices where he worked with the first team offense. Mississippi State has the element of surprise in this game with two different offensive and defensive coordinators calling their first games in this one. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games after playing a game at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss a home to a conference rival. Additionally, Mississippi State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Lastly, the Bulldogs did rush for 294 yards against Ole Miss in their last game — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last contest. 20* CFB Louisville-Mississippi State Taxslayer Bowl Special with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (258) plus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (257). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the USC Trojans (255) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (256) in the Cotton Bowl. USC (11-2) has won five straight games since their bad loss at Notre Dame — culminating in their 31-28 win over Stanford in the Pac-12 Championship Game as a 3.5-point favorite. The Trojans outgained the Cardinal generated 501 yards of offense in that game while winning the yardage battle by +158 net yards. USC has then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least 125 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least 175 yards. USC averaged 7.45 Yards-Per-Play against Stanford — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after averaging at least 7.25 YPP. This is now a healthier football team again playing behind QB Sam Darnold who is 20-3 as a starter. The Trojans had a 24 players on the injured list against the Irish. Look for USC to build off their momentum to play well in this game. The Trojans have covered the point spread in 35 of their last 53 games after wining six or seven of their last eight games — including covering the point spread six of their last eight games after winning six or seven of their last eight. USC has also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after wining eight of their last ten games. And in their last 12 games played with the Total with the Total set at 63 or higher, the Trojans have covered the point spread 8 times.

Ohio State (11-2) has won four straight games culminating by winning the Big Ten Championship Game over Wisconsin by a 27-21 score. But the Buckeyes have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by 7 points or less against a Big Ten rival. This Ohio State team is as talented as any team in the nation but mistakes, turnovers and mediocre play on Special Teams has held this team back all season. In there four biggest games against Oklahoma, Penn State, Michigan and then the Badgers, Ohio State won three of the games but two were by 6 points or less with the win over the Wolverines surpassing that threshold only with a late touchdown. The Buckeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Ohio State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the Big Ten. Ohio State has not allowed more than 21 points in their last four games since their season-ruining loss at Iowa — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 25 points in at least three straight games. Their win over Wisconsin fell Under the 51 point Total — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Lastly, the Buckeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. 20* CFB USC-Ohio State Cotton Bowl Special with USC Trojans (255) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (256). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the North Carolina State Wolfpack (249) minus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (250) in the Sun Bowl. Arizona State (7-5) is another bowl team in the middle of a coaching transition with sixth-year head coach Todd Graham fired for ESPN television personality (and former NFL head coach coach over a decade ago) Herm Edwards. Graham has agreed to stay on to coach this game — and I do expect his players to play hard for their lame duck leader who recruited all of them. But this Sun Devils team looks due for a letdown anyways after they ended their season with a 42-30 upset win against their arch-rival Arizona as a 2-point underdog back on November 25th. This team pulled off four upsets this season with their win over Washington being their highest-profile victory. Arizona State has won five of their last seven games while covering the point spread in seven of their last nine games. But the Sun Devils have then failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 road games after winning four or five of their last six games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Those are not encouraging team trends for a program that will have new coordinators on both sides of the football for this game. As it is, Arizona State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the Pac-12. The Sun Devils have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games in the month of December. And in their last 5 games played on a neutral field, Arizona State has failed to cover the point spread 4 times.

NC State (8-4) enters this Bowl game having won two of their last three games with their 33-21 win over North Carolina back on November 25th. This is a good football team under head coach Dave Doeren that defeated Louisville and Florida State this season. The Wolfpack have then covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 road games coming off a bye. NC State has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a game that they played at home. Led by future first-round NFL draft pick Bradley Chubb at defensive end, the Wolfpack have a strong defense that held their opponents to just 24.8 PPG. Defense travels — and NC State outgained their six opponents away from home by +65.0 net YPG. The Wolfpack have played three straight games Under the Total — and they have then covered the point spread in 32 of their last 47 games after playing at least two straight games that finished Under the Total. Lastly, NC State is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 Bowl game appearances. 10* CFB NC State-Arizona State CBS-TV Special with the North Carolina State Wolfpack (249) minus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (250). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (248) minus the points versus the Texas A&M Aggies (247) in the Belk Bowl. Wake Forest (7-5) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in their regular season game which was a 31-23 upset loss to Duke as a 10.5-point favorite. The Demon Deacons have then bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. Wake Forest has the geographical edge in this matchup with this Bowl being played in nearby Charlotte. This was a battle-tested team that had a 4-5 record against teams that reached a Bowl game — as compared to the 1-5 record that Texas A&M had against bowl teams this season. The Demon Deacons have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Wake Forest has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the ACC. And in their last 4 Bowl games, head coach Dave Clawson’s team has covered the point spread all 4 times.

Texas A&M (7-5) is in the middle of their coaching transition from Kevin Sumlin to Jimbo Fisher. Special Teams Coordinator Jeff Banks will be coaching the team as the interim head coach since Sumlin was terminated after the Aggies’ 45-21 loss at LSU as an 11-point underdog to close out their regular season. Look for Texas A&M to be flat as they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games after a loss by at least 20 points. The Aggies gave up 351 yards to the middling LSU passing attack in that game — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Texas A&M is also just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The Aggies have surrendered 37 PPG to their last five opponents representing a Power-Five Conference. Moving forward, the Aggies are just 16-37-1 ATS in their last 54 games against teams with a winning record which offers some insight into why Sumlin was fired. Texas A&M has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in the month of December. And in their last 11 Bowl games, the Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 8 times. 10* CFB Texas A&M-Wake Forest Belk Bowl Special with the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (248) minus the points versus the Texas A&M Aggies (247). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington State Cougars (278) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (277) in the Holiday Bowl. Michigan State (9-3) opened this game as a small underdog — and with most of the money being bet on Sparty, they now find themselves as a small favorite in the 2-point range. But the Spartans have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games without head coach Mark Dantonio being able to play the “disrespect” card. Michigan State has won two straight games after their 40-7 win at Rutgers as a 13.5-point favorite. But the Spartans have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. Michigan State forced three turnovers in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after forcing at least three turnovers in their last game. And while Sparty did not commit a turnover in that contest, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after committing no more than one turnover in their last contest. Michigan State does have a very good defense that has allowed 97 rushing yards combined in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in at least two straight games. Remember, this Spartans defense was exposed by Ohio State in a their 48-3 loss to the Buckeyes last month in a game where they allowed 524 yards of offense. The Michigan State offense scored only 23.6 PPG in their five games on the road this year — and they were outgained by -2.6 net PPG in their five games away from East Lansing. The Spartans have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against non-conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against Pac-12 opponents.

Washington State (9-3) should be very motivated to redeem themselves on this national stage from a pair of bad performances. For starters, the Cougars completely laid an egg last season in a 17-12 loss to Minnesota in this very same Holiday Bowl despite facing a severely depleted Golden Gophers team due to a slew of suspensions that the team handed out for disciplinary reasons that almost compelled them to cancel appearing at the game. We took the Gophers that night and I have had the Washington State opportunity for redemption in the back of my mind all year. The Cougars also look to get the bad taste out of their mouths from their 41-14 loss at Washington back on November 25th to close out their regular reason. Washington State has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Quarterback Luke Falk did complete 37 of 55 passes for 369 yards in that game — and the Cougars have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after they passed for at least 280 yards in their last game while also covering the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after passing for at least 325 yards in their last contest. Washington State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. The Cougars have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 16 games as the underdog, Washington State has covered the point spread in 11 of these games. 25* CFB Fox Sports 1 Game of the Year with the Washington State Cougars (278) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (277) in the Holiday Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing then TCU Horned Frogs (246) plus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (245) in the Alamo Bowl. TCU (10-3) looks to bounce-back from getting throttled in the Big 12 Championship Game at Oklahoma in their 41-17 loss as a 7-point underdog. The Horned Frogs have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Take away two losses to an Oklahoma team that is hoping to play for a National Championship and this TCU team lost to just one other team this season. They have an outstanding defense that limits their opponents to just 17.6 PPG (11th in the FBS) while holding those teams to only 328.5 total YPG (17th in the FBS). On offense, they are led by senior QB Kenny Hill who completed 67% of his passes this season. The Horned Frogs have covered the point spread in 39 of their last 60 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. TCU has also covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And with this game being played on field turf in San Antonio which will give the Horned Frogs a geographical advantage, they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on turf.

Stanford (9-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in the Pac-12 Championship Game in their 31-28 loss at USC as a 3.5-point favorite. The Cardinal has then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. This is a typical Stanford team of late on the offensive side of the football as they thrive in their rushing attack but struggle with their passing game. Running back Bryce Love should be healthier than he was in the second-half of the regular season. But the Cardinal passing attack ranked just 97th in the FBS by averaging 184.3 passing YPG. However, this is an atypical Stanford team that is not nearly as tough on defense as they usually are. The Cardinal allowed opponents to average 4.5 Yards-Per-Carry — and they ranked 71st in the FBS by allowing 170.7 rushing YPG. Overall, Stanford was 74th in total defense by giving up 398.8 total YPG. In the previous five seasons, the Cardinal held their Pac-12 opponents to average -103 YPG below their season average. This season, these conference opponents averaged just -13 net YPG below their season offensive average. Lastly, Stanford lost all four of their games away from home this season where they were outgained by -73.0 net YPG. 10* CFB Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the TCU Horned Frogs (246) plus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (245) in the Alamo Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Virginia Tech Hokies (243) plus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (244) in the Camping World Bowl. Virginia Tech (9-3) has won two straight games after their 10-0 shutout victory at Virginia. The Hokies have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win Virginia Tech has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing 20 points or less in their last contest. This Hokies defense is one of the best in the nation as they are holding their opponents to just 13.5 PPG which is 5th best in the FBS — and they rank 11th in the nation by holding their opponents to only 305.3 total YPG. Defense travels — and Virginia Tech was 4-2 on the road with an average winning margin of +8.9 PPG due to this defense that held those opponents to only 17.8 PPG. The Hokies have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in expected higher-scoring games where the Total was set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. Virginia Tech has also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 33 games as an underdog in the 3.5 to 10 point range. I am expected redshirt freshman quarterback Josh Jackson to have improved during the extra Bowl practices under their offensive guru of a head coach in Justin Fuente. The Hokies have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams outside the ACC. And in their last 11 games in the month of December, Virginia Tech has covered the point spread 8 times.

Oklahoma State (9-3) reached this Bowl game after their 58-17 win over Kansas back on November 25th as a big 40.5-point favorite. The Cowboys have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. Oklahoma State has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while the Total was set at 67 for that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after playing at game that finished Over the Total. Interestingly, the Cowboys played another team on their schedule known for having a good defense with strong Special Teams but a sometimes questionable offense — and that Kansas State team defeated them by a 45-40 score. I think that result serves as a harbinger for this game. Oklahoma State does not do well with their Special Teams while this Hokies team remains excellent in that area of the game two years removed from the Frank Beamer era that specialized in Special Teams play. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 6 games when favored in the 3.5 to 10 point range, Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these games. 20* CFB Virginia Tech-Oklahoma State Camping World Special with the Virginia Tech Hokies (243) plus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (244). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Navy Midshipmen (242) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Virginia Cavaliers (241) in the Military Bowl. Navy (6-6) is a team that is often faded in Bowl games given the conventional wisdom that the opponent’s opportunity to practice for a few weeks against their unique spread triple option mitigates the inherent advantage the Midshipmen have from week-to-week deploying that offense. And that is some solid 2012 reasoning. However, bettors have caught up to that logic and the oddsmakers have adjusted. Bettors were also using that logic to bet against Army against a San Diego State teach coached by Rocky Long who was being described as the Yoda of defending spread triple options. The fact is that these triple option offenses are so tricky because there is a second (and third) level of adjustments that can be made once defenses begin to catch up to it. In regards to the Naval Academy, they have covered the point spread in 4 straight Bowl games which should put that Hot Take to rest for the time being. The Midshipmen host this Bowl game which gives them a significant advantage in this contests. Navy was 4-1 at home this year while outgaining their opponents by +50.4 net YPG. They are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 games on their home field. These Midshipmen should be very motivated to end their season on a high note after losing three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests after losing their rivalry game against Army in heartbreaking fashion in the snow by a 14-13 score. Navy was 2.5-point favorites in that game — and they are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a point spread loss. The Midshipmen have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after allowing no more than 20 points in their last game. Navy faced a very competitive schedule this season so they enter this game battle tested.

Virginia (6-6) limps into the postseason as well having lost three straight games with their 10-0 loss at home to Virginia Tech. The listless Cavaliers’ offense managed to gain only 191 yards of offense in that game. Virginia ranks 100th in the FBS by scoring just 23.8 PPG — and they also rank 100th in the FBS by averaging only 356.2 total YPG. The Cavaliers managed only 5 rushing yards in that contest — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in their last game. Virginia is also 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games after allowing 20 points or less in their last game. Defense is a concern in this game for Bronco Mendenhall’s team. The Cavaliers do a great job stopping opponent’s passing attacks as they rank 17th in the FBS by holding teams to just 179.6 passing YPG. But Virginia allows their opponents to rush for 178.3 rushing YPG which is 82nd in the FBS which is a grave concern when looking to slow down the Navy spread triple option. The Hokies ran for 202 yards against the Virginia defense — and the Cavaliers are then 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. Lastly, the Cavaliers were just 2-3 on the road this season while being outgained by -5.0 net PPG. 10* CFB Virginia-Navy Military Bowl Special with the Navy Midshipmen (242) plus the points versus the Virginia Cavaliers (241). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (240) plus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (239) in the Texas Bowl. Texas (6-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in their last regular season game back on November 24th in their 27-23 loss to Texas Tech. It is pretty easy for Bowl observers to point to head coach Tom Herman’s 9-1 ATS record as an underdog in his head coaching career — and that includes overseeing six straight-up upset victories. While that helps to establish some confidence that Herman is effective at motivating his team when the odds are stacked against them, this logic has become conventional wisdom. On the other hand, a knee-jerk play-against this evolving conventional wisdom would be foolhardy as well. I do like the Longhorns to come out with a strong effort in their home state where sending good vibes is important to Herman for recruiting. Texas has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. This Longhorns team has a stout defense that ranked 30th in the FBS by holding opponents to just 21.7 PPG. In their six games away from home, Texas held their opponents to only 18.0 PPG. This defensive play has helped the Longhorns go 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. On offense, look for this unit to play well behind promising freshman quarterback Sam Ehlinger who should benefit from the extra weeks of bowl preparation. The Longhorns have three players who have defied to not play this game to protect their health for the upcoming NFL draft — but roster talent has never been the issue with this team. Texas has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outside the Big 12. And in their last 6 games played on a neutral field, the Longhorns have covered the point spread 5 times.

Missouri (7-5) enters this Bowl game on a six-game winning streak after their 48-45 win at Arkansas as a 10-point favorite. The Tigers have then failed to her the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. Missouri did gain a whopping 696 yards against the Razorbacks — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. This Tigers team feasted off bad competition where their spread offense was able to run up the score. Against the seven Bowl teams they faced this season, Mizzou scored 54 PPG. But against the five teams participating in Bowl games this season, the Tigers were winless while scoring a mere 18.5 PPG. That makes them precarious favorites tonight — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in the month of December. 25* CFB Wednesday Bowl Special Feature with the Texas Longhorns (240) plus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (239) in the Texas Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (275) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (276) in the Foster Farm’s Bowl. Arizona (7-5) has lost two straight games with their 42-30 upset loss at Arizona State back on November 25th. That loss may be indicative of a book that has begun to be established against sophomore QB Khalil Tate who tore up the Pac-12 when head coach Rich Rodriguez inserted him into the starting lineup. The Wildcats won five of their last eight games with Tate as the starting QB taking over for junior Brandon Dawkins. But over his last two starts, Tate ran the ball only 22 times for 60 yards while completing 29 of his 48 passes for 291 yards which are akin to numbers he was putting up in just one game (albeit with less passing and more rushing attempts). Rodriguez eventually benched Tate to give Dawkins a chance to move the ball in their rivalry game against Arizona State. But, as always, the bigger concerns with Rodriguez-coached teams are defense and discipline. The Wildcats ranked 116th in the FBS by allowing 464.2 total YPG. They surrendered 227 yards to the Sun Devils — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. It is poor Special Teams, penalties and overall undisciplined play that makes Arizona an unreliable small favorite under Rich Rod. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outside the Pac-12. Arizona has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games played in the month of December. Additionally, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games played on a neutral field. And in their last 6 Bowl game appearances, Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these contests.

Purdue (6-6) became Bowl eligible by winning their last two games of the regular season — culminating with their 31-24 win over Indiana back on November 25th. The Boilermakers’ racked up 453 yards of offense in that victory — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The offense has played a bit better with first-year head coach Jeff Brohm settling on Elijah Sindelar as the main signal-caller. He completed 15 of 29 passes for 159 yards but threw two TD passes and no interceptions against the Hoosiers. Purdue did surrender 497 yards to the Indiana offense — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. This Boilermakers defense should play better as they ranked 16th in the nation by allowing just 19.3 PPG. Even better, when Purdue was on the road in six games this season, they surrendered only 17.8 PPG along with 347.7 total YPG. The Boilermakers outscored their opponents on the road by +2.4 PPG while outgaining them by +27.0 net YPG which makes them dangerous underdogs against this inconsistent Wildcats team. Purdue has a loaded front seven that accounted for 25 sacks while holding opponents to just 3.7 Yards-Per-Carry. This is the Boilermakers first Bowl game in five years so they will be very excited for this opportunity. Lastly, Purdue has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the Big Ten — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams from the Pac-12. 10* CFB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Purdue Boilermakers (275) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (276) in the Foster Farm’s Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Boston College Eagles (237) plus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (238) in the Pinstripe Bowl. Boston College (7-5) has won two straight games — as well as six of their last eight contests — with their 42-14 win at Syracuse in their last regular season game back on November 25th as a 4.5-point favorite. The Eagles are then 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Boston College is 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing no more than 20 points in their last game. This became a changed football team when freshman A.J. Dillon entered the starting lineup. Dillon de-committed from Michigan to enroll at BC with the promise of a better immediate opportunity for playing time — and he proved why by rushing for 1432 yards with a 5.3 Yards-Per-Carry average along with 13 TDs. Dillon ran the ball 23 times for 193 yards en route to the Eagles putting up 333 yards in that win over the Orangemen. Boston College has then a decisive 40-19-2 in their last 61 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. An effective ground game makes the Eagles dangerous because of their typically strong play on defense. This season, BC ranks 35th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 22.5 PPG. Defense and a strong ground game travels — and the Eagles were 5-1 this season with an average winning margin of +10.1 PPG. Boston College is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on a neutral field. And in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record, the Eagles are 4-0-1 ATS.

Iowa (7-5) snapped their two-game losing streak in their last regular season game with a 56-14 win at Nebraska as a 4.5-point favorite. The Hawkeyes have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least 20 points. Furthermore, Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. This Hawkeyes team peaked this season when they scored 55 points while tallying a remarkable 487 yards of offense against a shellshocked Ohio State team that was turning the ball over left and right. But against the five other Big Ten teams that played in Bowl games, Iowa scored only 13.6 PPG while averaging a mere 228.0 total YPG. Additionally, Iowa was outgained by -28.8 net YPG in their five games on the road. The Hawkeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 Bowl games. And in their last 4 games played on a neutral field, Iowa is just 0-3-1 ATS. 10* CFB Boston College-Iowa Pinstripe Bowl Special with the Boston College Eagles (237) plus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (238). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (235) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (236) in the Independence Bowl. Florida State (6-6) enters this game winning and covering the point spread in three straight games to become Bowl eligible. Their last game was a 42-10 win over UL-Monroe back on December 2nd as a 26-point favorite. The Seminoles generated 504 yards of offense in that game — but they are then 2-7-2 ATS in their last 11 games after gaining at least 405 yards in their last game. And while they did not force a turnover against the Ragin’ Cajun defense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not forcing more than one turnover in their last game. This is a team in transition with Odell Haggins serving as the interim coach before Willie Taggart takes over for the departed Dabo Swinney who took the money to go to Texas A&M. While Florida State was snake-bit by injuries this season which was made worse by a difficult schedule, they remain a precarious big favorite laying more than two touchdowns. This team scored only 17.3 PPG while averaging 267.2 total YPG when away from home this season. The Seminoles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing on a neutral field. And in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record, Florida State is just 0-4-2 ATS.

Southern Miss (8-4) has won three straight games after their 28-27 upset win at Marshall as a 2-point underdog. The Golden Eagles should build off that momentum with confidence they can pull off a high-profile upset this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. Southern Miss has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. The Golden Eagles outrushed the Thundering Herd in that game by a 201 to 74 yard margin — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games after outrushing their last opponent by at least 125 yards. There is no question that Southern Miss faced the weaker schedule this season. But they will have the geographical and crowd advantage in this game with it being played in Shreveport. They also have been consistent when playing away from home as they are 5-1 on the road while outgaining their opponents by +87.2 net YPG. Defense travels — and the Golden Eagles rankled 17th in the nation by limiting their opponents to just 321.9 total YPG. Lastly, Southern Miss has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against non-conference opponents. 10* CFB Southern Mississippi-Florida State Independence Bowl Special with the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (235) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (236) in the Independence Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (234) plus the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (233) in the Cactus Bowl. Kansas State (7-5) enters this Bowl game having won two straight games as well as four of their last five with their 20-19 win over Iowa State. But the Wildcats are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. And Kansas State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a victory over a Big 12 rival by 7 points or less. Moving forward, lets just say that I like betting on Bill Snyder’s teams when they are underdogs but become wary of them when they are laying the points. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games as the favorite laying 3.5 to 10 points. Kansas State has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when playing on a neutral field as the favorite. I know that they are facing a UCLA team that is a hot mess — but these Wildcats are no beacons of serene stability themselves. They are down to their third-string quarterback in freshman Skylar Thompson. Their seven wins this season could be considered an overachievement when considering that were outgained by their opponents by -63.7 net YPG. This Kansas State team ranked surprisingly low at 97th in the FBS by allowing 432.0 total YPG due to a porous pass defense that allowed a whopping 310.3 passing YPG which was 128th in the nation. These Wildcats also were outgained by -99.0 net YPG when playing away from home. Furthermore, Kansas State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing on a neutral field. Snyder is a great coach — but I do think the extra preparation time in Bowl games helps to level the playing field since opposing coaches get extra time to find some angles that Snyder seems to discover on a week-to-week advantage to help his team continually overachieve. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in Bowl games.

UCLA (6-6) is in a state of transition with Chip Kelly taking over the program after Jim Mora was fired after the team’s loss to USC. Quarterback Jay Rosen will not play in this game because of a concussion leaving it to freshman QB Devon Modster to run the offense. Modster stepped in for Rosen in the second half of their last game against Cal when Rosen was knocked out of that game with this head injury and he completed 14 of 18 passes for 191 yards to lead the Bruins to a 30-27 win over the Golden Bears. This UCLA team is a train wreck on defense — despite having talent. And this group was winless in their six road games. But I like the situation for these proverbial misfit toys with zero expectations on them. Interim head coach Jedd Fisch oversaw the victory over Cal and has plenty of incentive to show something here as it could set him up for head coaching college jobs. Fisch comes from the Jim Harbaugh coaching tree and left the Wolverines as their co-offensive coordinator to work with Rosen. Worst case scenario for Fisch is another offensive coordinator gig with a good Power Five Conference team. I also think he has helped make Modster better during Bowl practices with the freshman now getting all the coaching attention while working with the first team offense. Modster has shown that he can fulfill on his vast promise coming out of high school as he has completed 66.7% of his 45 passes this season while averaging a strong 8.4 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Bruins have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games as an underdog on a neutral field. Lastly, while UCLA does allow 36.8 PPG, these teams should not be dismissed too quickly. The Bruins win over Cal fell below the 66 point Total — and underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 point range who allow at least 35.0 PPG but come off a game that finished Under the Total have then covered the point spread in 75 of the last 117 situations where these conditions applied. 10* CFB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the UCLA Bruins (234) plus the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (233) in the Cactus Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Northern Illinois Huskies (231) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (232) in the Quick Lane Bowl. Northern Illinois (8-4) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in their last regular season in a 31-24 upset loss at Central Michigan as a 2.5-point favorite. That was a disappointing result for the Huskies (and us) as they went into a halftime with a comfortable 17-0 lead before being overwhelmed by the Chippewas in the final 30 minutes. Northern Illinois be anxious to redeem themselves from that loss. Head coach Rod Carey has also certainly reminded him team of the team’s humiliating performance in the 2015 Poinsettia Bowl where they lost to Boise State by a 55-7 score while being outgained by an incredible 654-33 margin. Injuries played a role in that results — and I do not think that performance offers any evidence as to how the Huskies can perform against a Power Five Conference representative. This team defeated Nebraska this season while losing by just 3 points to a feisty Boston College team this season. Northern Illinois has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a loss by a touchdown or less against a conference rival. The Huskies have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after an upset loss to a conference rival. Additionally, Northern Illinois has covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 road games after not allowing more than a field goal in the first half of their last game — and this includes covering the point spread in six of their last seven games with that situation. And while the Huskies have only covered the point spread once in their last five games, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. Northern Illinois may have finally found the heir to quarterback Jordan Lynch that led the program to great heights climaxing in an Orange Bowl appearance five years ago. Redshirt freshman QB Marcus Childers has the passing and running mix that Carey likes to see from his quarterback to make this spread offense hum. The Huskies also have a great defense that built off the momentum they established in their final five games of the 2016 season. Northern Illinois allowed just 20.8 PPG (27th in the FBS) while ranking 18th in the nation by limiting opponents to only 328.0 total YPG based on a stout run defense that is 11th in the nation by limiting their opponents to only 112.3 rushing YPG. This helps the Huskies to be dangerous underdogs. They have covered the point spread in a decisive 54 of their last 89 games including three of their last four and eight of their last thirteen games when getting the points. Northern Illinois has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the Mid-American Conference. 

Duke (6-6) followed up a 43-20 upset victory over Georgia Tech as a 6.5-point underdog by then upsetting Wake Forest in Winston Salem on November 25th as a 10.5-point underdog to become bowl eligible for head coach David Cutcliffe. The Blue Devils tend to be a dangerous underdog themselves under Cutcliffe as they pulled off four upsets this season. But perhaps Cutcliffe needs to road trip to the Alabama locker room sometime to listen to how Nick Saban motivates his team as perpetual favorites as this Duke team suffered three upset losses as the favorite also this season. Needless to say, I am not comfortable in the Blue Devils laying points. Duke has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset victory as an underdog — and this includes failing to cover the point spread in three straight games after pulling an upset on the road. The Blue Devils had lost six straight games in a stretch where they scored just 12.0 PPG before pulling off these last two upsets. Duke scores only 19.6 PPG away from home while generating a mere 304.4 total YPG. They were outscored by -3.0 net PPG on the road while being outgained by -31.2 net YPG. The Huskies, on the other hand, outscored their six road opponents by +2.1 net YPG while also winning the yardage battle. Duke’s win over the Demon Deacons fell below the 59 point total — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Lastly, the Blue Devils have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game against a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after playing their last two games against ACC rivals. 25* CFB Tuesday Bowl Special Feature with the Northern Illinois Huskies (231) plus the points versus the Duke Blue Devils (232) in the Quick Lane Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the West Virginia Mountaineers (230) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (229) in the Heart of Dallas Bowl. West Virginia (7-5) limped into their bowl game losing two straight games with their 59-31 loss at Oklahoma back on November 25th. The Mountaineers have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games under head coach Dana Holgorsen. But this West Virginia team is undermanned entering this bowl game. Quarterback Will Grier has announced he is returning to the school to use his final year of eligibility — but the finger injury that kept him out of the last two games will keep him from taking the field this afternoon. Sophomore Chris Chugunov will be the starting QB this afternoon. While he has completed just 54% of his passes, he has the luxury of an outstanding group of wide receivers and he should have gotten better with the benefit of bowl practices. Running back Justin Crawford is also bypassing this game to protect his precious draft stock — but, frankly, that is not as big a deal as advertised. Sophomore running back Kennedy McKoy rushed the ball 25 times for 137 yards against the Sooners while leading the Mountaineers to 250 rushing yards against Oklahoma. The Mountaineers have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. The Holgorson offense that ranked 14th in the nation in total offense should find a rhythm this afternoon because the head coach always seems to get his offense going. Defense is another issue. West Virginia allowed 646 yards to the Sooners including 313 yards on the ground — but they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games after allowing at least 275 yards in their last game. The Mountaineers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 50 points in their last game. The Holgorson offensive attack does travel — they averaged 517.8 total YPG when playing on the road which helped them outgain their opponents by +32.1 net YPG. West Virginia has failed to cover the point spread in their last two games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games.

Utah (6-6) snapped their two-game losing streak in their final game in the regular season with their 34-13 win over Colorado. The big statistic that every pundit paying attention to Bowl games will surely be pointing out is that Utes’ head coach Kyle Whittingham has coached his team to a near perfect 10-1 record in Bowl games. While I am not going to invest the time to verify actually how many of those games were situations where Whittingham’s team was being asked to laying close to a touchdown. I fully expect this Utes team to be prepared (as I consider the “motivational” angles for Bowl games to wildly overrated). That said, this Utes team may not be able to stop themselves from suffering a letdown after their nice statement win that they needed to become Bowl eligible. Utah has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit win over a conference rival. The Utes have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after a win by at least three touchdowns against a conference rival. The team hopes to get sophomore QB Tyler Huntley back after he missed some starts. This always looked to be a down year for this Utah team that lost eight players to the NFL draft from last year’s team that finished 10-3. This young team was not nearly as good away from Salt Lake City this year where they were 2-3 while being outscored by -2.6 net PPG along with being outgained by -21.0 net YPG. Expect a close game where taking the points with the underdog should be worthwhile. 10* CFB Utah-West Virginia Heart of Dallas Bowl Special with the West Virginia Mountaineers (230) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (229). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (228) plus the point(s) versus the Houston Cougars (227) in the Hawai’i Bowl. Fresno State (9-4) looks to bounce-back from their 17-14 loss in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game at Boise State which was an immediate rematch from the game those two teams played the previous week in Fresno. The Bulldogs have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss. Fresno State did cover the 10-point spread as the underdog in that last game — and they are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last contest. And in their last 10 games after allowing at least 20 points in their last contest, Fresno State has covered the point spread in 9 of those games. Furthermore, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 5 games against teams outside the MWC, Fresno State has covered the point spread in 4 of these contests.

Houston (7-4) has won three of their last four games with their 24-14 win over Navy back on November 24th as a 6.5-point favorite. The Cougars have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. Trying to base Bowl game predictions based primarily on guessing the motivation of both teams has always been Fool’s Gold to me — but, that said, a trip to Hawai’i for this Houston team that did not meet their high expectations this season. The Cougars returned fifteen starters for first-year head coach Major Applewhite from last year’s team that finished 9-4 which included upset wins over Oklahoma and Louisville. But this team was upset four times this season to spoil their dreams of winning the American Athletic Conference and perhaps earn the Group of Five conference bowl bid in the New Year’s Six Bowl Games. Instead, a trip to Hawai’i to face another non-power conference opponent. The Cougars score only 20.2 PPG when playing away from home this season — and that is -8.2 PPG below their season average. Lastly, Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games when playing on field turf. 25* CFB Hawai’i Bowl A-List Special with the Fresno State Bulldogs (228) plus the point(s) versus the Houston Cougars (227). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Appalachian State Mountaineers (225) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (226) in the Dollar General Bowl. Toledo (11-2) has the opportunity to avenge a loss to this Mountaineers team in last year’s Camellia Bowl where they lost by a 31-28 score — but they were small 1-point underdogs in that game. It is too much to ask this team to avenge that loss by around a touchdown that they are being asked to lay in this game. The Rockets won the Mid-American Conference Championship with their 45-28 win over Akron as a 20.5-point favorite back on December 2nd. Toledo has been cranking on offense as they enter this game as they have scored at least 37 points in three straight games while averaging at least 6.79 Yards-Per-Play in each of those games. But the Rockets have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after averaging at least 6.25 Yards-Per-Play in three straight games. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after scoring at least 31 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after scoring at least 37 points in three straight contests. Additionally, Toledo has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the MAC. And in their last 6 games in the month of December, the Rockets are just 1-4-1 ATS.

Appalachian State (8-4) has won three straight games with their 63-14 win over UL-Lafayette as a 14-point favorite. Look for the Mountaineers to build off their momentum in this Bowl game as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Appalachian State has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least 20 points. The Mountaineers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. This Appalachian State team tied for first-place in the Sun Belt Conference but perhaps did not meet their high expectations when entering the season with fourteen starters back from their 10-3 team that upset Toledo in their meeting in the Camellia Bowl last year. But this will also be a host of senior’s last game including quarterback Taylor Lamb — so pulling an upset in this game would help make up for their two (net) upset losses this season. Lastly, the Mountaineers have coved the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. 20* CFB Appalachian State-Toledo Dollar General Bowl Special with the Appalachian State Mountaineers (225) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (226). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Army Black Knights (223) plus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (224). The Hot Take that many pundits are observing for this game has been the great success head coach Rocky Long has enjoyed when his defenses face spread triple option offenses. The numbers are impressive: Long’s teams are 11-1 straight-up against the twelve triple option offenses he has coached against with his team covering the point spread eight times. In the Aztecs’ 2014 Bowl game when they played Navy, they held the Midshipmen to a season-low 271 yards of offense. However, the problem with these numbers is that the oddsmakers have incorporated these facts into their number — it is one of the reasons why San Diego State (10-2) is a favorite in the touchdown range for this game. But the Aztecs do not tend to meet expectations when laying more than a field goal but not more than 10 points — they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when laying 3.5 to 10 points. San Diego State ended the season on fire by winning four straight games with their 35-10 win over New Mexico back on November 24th. But with a long 28 days off between contests, this Aztecs team may be flat in this game in an uninspiring contest against the Black Knights and an offense they have already faced twice this season. San Diego State has covered the point spread in four straight games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after covering the point spread in at least four of their last five games. The Aztecs have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. Additionally, while San Diego State has scored at least 35 points in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 31 points in their last two contests. They averaged at least 6.96 Yards-Per-Play in those last three games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after averaging at least 6.75 YPP in two straight games while failing to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after averaging at least 6.75 YPP in three straight games. This San Diego State team also won all three of their games decided by one scoring possession — so their final record could have easily been less impressive if a break or two does not go there way.

Army (9-3) has experienced a dream season after defeating Navy for the second-straight season back on December 9th by a 14-13 score. They should have benefit in playing this game with only two weeks off between that triumph. Some pundits have questioned the team’s motivation for this game while others have concerns about the short turnaround during semester exams. Dude, it’s Army. These guys thrive on discipline and compartmentalizing their varying responsibilities. And after winning the Commander-in-Chief Trophy, this team has the opportunity to close out their season as one of the most gloried in the program’s history to achieve a ten-win season with a victory in their bowl game. Fourth-year head coach Jeff Monken will have his team prepared and excited to win this game — just like he did last season when they defeated North Texas in the Heart of Dallas Bowl. With this game being played in Fort Worth, the Black Knights will enjoy a crowd advantage. They enter this game having won seven of their last eight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Army has also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a game where neither team scored more than 17 points. Additionally, one of the intangibles that should help the Black Knights stay in this game is that they protect the football. Army has only committed five turnovers in their last eight contests — and they have not committed more than one turnover in any of those last eight games. The Black Knights have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not committing more than one turnover in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not committing more than one turnover in four straight games. Lastly, and to bring this Report full-circle, the qualities of this Army team has helped them cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB Army-San Diego State Armed Forces Bowl Special with the Army Black Knights (223) plus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (224). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the South Florida Bulls (222) minus the points versus the Texas Tech Red Raiders (221) in the Birmingham Bowl. Texas Tech (6-6) closed out their regular season by erasing a four-game slide by winning two of their last three games which was culminated in a 27-23 upset victory at Texas as a 7.5-point underdog back on November 24th. The Red Raiders have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog of at least 6 points. This Texas Tech can score points — but they continue to struggle on defense as they ranked 94th in the nation by allowing 31.8 PPG and they finished 98th in the FBS by giving up 434.0 total YPG. This porous defense has contributed to them failing to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. With South Florida falling this morning to a favorite of less than a field goal in most spots, lets take the Bulls. The Red Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field as an underdog getting no more than 7 points. And this Texas Tech team has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 appearances in a Bowl game.

10* CFB play on South Florida minus the points versu Texas Tech. Best of luck or us  -- Frank.

TO BE CONTINUED -- please check back before this game begins for my full written Report before this game starts -- and I also reserve the right to raise the Star Value of this play (while you still get it at the discounted price by buying early). Given the high volume of plays I offer clients, I am providing an initial “abridged version” of the play to get them posted faster to accommodate my Daily, Weekly and Monthly subscribers so they can begin shopping lines. My research is detailed for our plays (which I do complete before endorsing a play) but it does take some time to write the more detailed Reports that clients have grown to count on. Thanks, Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Wyoming Cowboys (220) minus the points versus the Central Michigan Chippewas (219) in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Wyoming (7-5) is led by a quarterback who will be drafted high in next April’s NFL Draft in junior Jake Allen. But Allen lost almost all his skill players from the previous season and led an offense that mostly sputtered this season as they scored only 22.3 PPG. Allen’s status for this game was questionable with a shoulder injury that kept him out of the last two games of the regular season — but he will take the field to start in this showcase opportunity for himself before he likely declares himself eligible for the draft. I do think the offense should be improved with the extra weeks of bowl practice. But while the offense behind Allen has been a challenge this season, that dynamic obscured the fact that the Cowboys defense has been quite good this season. Eight starters returned for first-year defensive coordinator Scottie Hazelton who oversaw a unit that ranked 12th in the FBS by holding opponents to just 17.8 PPG while also ranking 22nd in the nation by limiting opponents to only 332.8 total YPG. Wyoming should also have the Special Teams edge in this game against the Chippewas. The Cowboys will be looking to bounce-back after losing their last two games of the season without Allen. They take the field again for the first time since their 20-17 loss at San Jose State as an 18-point favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. This team has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a loss to a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 3 straight games after an upset loss as a road favorite. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 3 straight games when playing with at least two weeks to prepare under head coach Craig Bohl. Wyoming has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after the first month of the season. In their last 11 games against teams with a winning record, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 8 of these contests. And in their last 5 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range, Wyoming has covered the point spread 4 times. Additionally, the Cowboys will enjoy both a geographical edge as well as an environment edge as they are already quite familiar with playing in the high altitude conditions that will be the case in Boise for this Bowl game.

Central Michigan (8-4) closed out the regular season with five straight victories with their 31-24 upset victory over Northern Illinois as a 2.5-point underdog. The Chippewas pulled off five upsets this season while winning all four of their games decided by one scoring possession. The team is led on offense by quarterback Shane Morris who was a graduate transfer from Michigan. Some pundits have queried about how good the Wolverines would have been if Morris would have stayed in Ann Arbor after he threw 26 touchdown passes this season. Those observers fail to realize that the southpaw was low on Jim Harbaugh’s depth chart for a reason. Putting up solid numbers against MAC competition when given the opportunity to pass the ball at least 35 times is not uncommon. But Morris’ 55% completion rate this season as well as his 13 interceptions (a big no-no for Harbaugh) that he put up this season are big reasons for concern when facing a quality defense. Central Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games outside the MAC. And while the Chippewas have played five straight Overs, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing at least five straight games that finished Over the Total. 25* CFB Group of Five Bowl Game of the Year with the Wyoming Cowboys (220) minus the points versus the Central Michigan Chippewas (219). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Ohio Bobcats (218) minus the points versus the UAB Blazers (217) in the Bahamas Bowl. Ohio (8-4) enters this game looking to get the bad taste out of their mouth of two straight upset losses in Mid-American Conference play that ruined their opportunity to play in the MAC Championship Game. The Bobcats were riding high after they upset Toledo by a 38-10 score despite being a 3-point underdog. But Ohio fell flat the next week in a 37-34 loss at Akron despite being a 15.5-point favorite which put the Zips in the drivers seat to win the MAC East Division. The Bobcats then followed that up with a 31-24 upset loss at Buffalo in what was essentially a meaningless game. This one of the better football teams that head coach Frank Solich has had at Ohio in his 13 seasons with the program. Solich’s teams are usually solid on defense but what makes this team different is how dynamic they are on offense. The Bobcats found their answer at quarterback in Week 2 of the season with junior college transfer Nathan Rourke. The dual threat sophomore passed for over 2000 yards with a 15:7 touchdown-to-interception ration while adding another 877 rushing yards and 21 TDs on the ground. He led an offense that ranked 14th in the FBS by averaging 38.9 PPG while generating 430.9 total YPG which was 39th in the nation. Look for Ohio to come out with an inspired effort as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. Turnovers has hurt this team as of late as they have lost the turnover battle in their last three games while suffering a -2 net turnover margin in their last two losses. But the Bobcats have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after losing the turnover battle in at least three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after enduring a -2 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games. Additionally, Ohio has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 7 games played in the month of December, the Bobcats have covered the point spread in 6 of these contests. Furthermore, Ohio has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games outside MAC play. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a neutral field. And while some may cite Solich’s 4-9 bowl record overall, he has led his Bobcats teams to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 Bowl game opportunities.

UAB (8-4) enters this bowl game coming off a 28-7 win over UTEP back on November 25th. The Blazers held the Miners to just 107 passing yards in that game — but they are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing no more than 170 passing yards in their last game. UAB has also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games away from home after a win over a conference rival. The Blazers have been one of the biggest surprises in College Football this season with head coach Bill Clark doing an outstanding job with this program that disbanded after the 2014-15 season. Many pundits thought that UAB should have transitioned into the FCS rather than dive into FBS competition — but Clark and his team decided intrude to pull off five upsets (three net upsets on the season) to reach eight wins and earn the right to compete in this bowl game. But this is also a football team that benefited from a very soft schedule that ranked 179th in the nation in the Sagarin rankings as compared to Ohio ranking 114th by those formulas. The Blazers will likely be dominated on both lines of scrimmage in this game. And the trip to the Bahamas may provide a distraction for this team that has already far exceeded preseason expectations. Lastly, UAB has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games played on grass. 10* CFB Friday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Ohio Bobcats (218) minus the points versus the UAB Blazers (217). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Temple Owls (215) minus the points versus the Florida International Golden Panthers (216). Temple (6-6) closed out their season winning three of their last four games with their 43-22 win at Tulsa as a 4.5-point favorite. The Owls should build off their momentum closing out the regular season as they have covered the pint spread in 7 of their last 9 games are a win by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a point spread victory. The offense has raised its level of play over their last five games when first-year head coach Geoff Collins inserted QB Frankie Nutile into the starting lineup. The junior completed 20 of 28 passes for 262 yards and three touchdown passes. Futile is completing 61% of his passes while possessing an 11 to 7 touchdown-to-interception ration while leading his team to score 31.8 PPG in his five starts. In their last three wins, the Owls have combined to score 112 combined points. Temple generated 451 yards of offense against Tulsa — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after generating at least 450 yards in their last game. The Owls have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. This should be a motivated group of players with 20 seniors and 24 juniors on the opening roster who will be looking to deliver a victory in a bowl game after experiencing upset losses in the last two seasons in their bowl game. Temple has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. The Owls have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games when playing on field turf which the field here in St. Petersburg.

Florida International (8-4) pulled off their second straight upset victory this season with their 63-45 upset win over UMass as a 2.5-point underdog back on December 2nd. That win came on the heels of their 41-17 upset win over Western Kentucky the previous Saturday as a small 2.5-point underdog in that game. First-year head coach Butch Davis led his team to an incredible six upset victories this season — but his group may suffer a rude awakening in this game. FIU ranked last in the country for FBS teams in terms of strength of schedule according to the Sagarin ratings — and they will be facing a Temple team battled tested from playing in the American Athletic Conference that rated as the top Group of Five non-power conference. It is telling that Florida International has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games outside Conference USA play. I see two particular areas where mismatches are likely. First, the Golden Panthers’ small offensive line risks being overpowered by the big defensive line of the Owls. Secondly, FIU allowed 37.4 PPG along with 467.6 total YPG in their five games away from home — and they scored only 22.4 PPG while getting outgained by -144.4 net YPG in those five road games. The Golden Panthers do have a geographical advantage with this game being played in St. Petersburg — but they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on a neutral field. And in their last 5 games played in the month of December, FIU is 0-3-1 ATS. 25* CFB Temple-FIU Gasparilla Bowl Special Feature with the Temple Owls (215) minus the points versus the Florida International Golden Panthers (216). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (213) plus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (214) in the Frisco Bowl. SMU (7-5) will be a bit disorganized entering this bowl game with head coach Chad Morris leaving the program to take the Arkansas job. The players hoped that interim head coach Jeff Traylor would be offered the head coaching job — but the program offered former Louisiana Tech and Cal head coach Sonny Dykes the job. Traylor decided to leave with Morris to Arkansas to work on that staff leaving Dykes with a skeleton coaching staff for this game. Frankly, I think the impact of this turmoil to be likely overestimated — the players are being empowered to take more responsibility for the scheming for this game and they are all motivated to play well for their next head coach. But, I don’t like the situation for the Mustangs outside this relative chaos. SMU snapped their three-game losing streak in their last game back on November 25th after their 41-38 win over Tulane as a 7-point favorite. But the Mustangs have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, SMU has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a close win against a conference rival by 3 points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a win by a field goal or less at home. And while the Mustangs have only covered the point spread once in their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least four of their last five games. If there is an impact on SMU given the changes in the coaching staff, it will likely be on defense as Dykes’ teams have always been high-scoring teams that lagged on defense. The Mustangs rank 121st in the FBS by allowing 486.7 total YPG — and when SMU is playing away from home, they allowed 548.6 total YPG. They have allowed at least 31 points in five straight games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 31 points in their last game.

Louisiana Tech (6-6) has won two straight games to become bowl eligible after their 20-6 win over UTSA as a pick ‘em back on November 25th. The Bulldogs have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread win. Louisiana Tech has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win at home against a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a double-digit win against a conference rival. The Bulldogs could have had a better record this season but suffered three net close losses decided by one scoring possession. They did play well away from as they were 4-1 on there road with an averaging winning margin of +6.8 net PPG. Louisiana Tech has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB Louisiana Tech-SMU Frisco Bowl Special with the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (213) plus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (214). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Akron Zips (211) plus the points versus the Florida Atlantic Owls (212). Florida Atlantic (10-3) has won nine straight games after winning the Conference USA Championship Game with their 41-17 win over North Texas by a 11-point spread. The Owls were looking to travel for their bowl game and perhaps flex their muscles against a Power Five conference team with a national reputation. But instead, they are staying at home to face a middling team from the Mid-American Conference while being installed as the biggest point spread favorite in a bowl game in the last 20 years. I expect this team to be very flat in this game that really does not mean much to them at this point of the season. Reports suggest that practices have been flat — and that is not a good sign for a head coach in Lane Kiffin who has never led any of college football teams to a bowl victory. And while FAU became a favorite with the betting public by putting up a lot of points, they faced a schedule ranked just 111th in the nation according to the Sagarin rankings. In this situation, home field may not offer much of an advantage since it will play into their complacency. As it is, the Owls have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games on their home field. And while FAU committed only one turnover against the Mean Green, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 home games after not committing  more than one turnover in their last game. The Owls have also failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 home games after playing a game against a conference opponent. Furthermore, FAU has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams outside Conference USA.

10* CFB play on Akron plus the points versus Akron. Best of luck  for us -- Frank.

TO BE CONTINUED -- please check back before this game begins for my full written Report before this game starts -- and I also reserve the right to raise the Star Value of this play (while you still get it at the discounted price by buying early). Given the high volume of plays I offer clients, I am providing an initial “abridged version” of the play to get them posted faster to accommodate my Daily, Weekly and Monthly subscribers so they can begin shopping lines. My research is detailed for our plays (which I do complete before endorsing a play) but it does take some time to write the more detailed Reports that clients have grown to count on. Thanks, Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Marshall Thundering Herd (207) plus the points versus the Colorado State Rams (208). Marshall (7-5) limps into this bowl game having lost two straight games — as well as four of their last five contests — with their 28-27 upset loss to Southern Mississippi as a 2-point favorite back on November 25th. Expect 8th year head coach Doc Holliday to have his team ready to play in this bowl game with the opportunity to end their season on a high note after this disappointing second half of the season. The Thundering Herd have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games when playing on the road after a point spread setback. This team plays outstanding defense with a unit that returned seven starters and was infused with five impactful transfers in the offseason. Marshall ranked 17th in the nation by allowing 19.3 PPG — and they 25th in the FBS by holding teams to just 337.7 total YPG. This stout defense should keep them competitive as they outscored their six opponents when they played away from home by +5.4 PPG while outgaining these foes by +28.4 net YPG. This Marshall team also holds a significant edge in Special Teams for this contest. The Thundering Herd are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games against non-conference opponents. And Holliday has led his team to a perfect 4-0 record in his tenure in bowl games — and this team has covered the point spread in 5 straight bowl appearances.

Colorado State (7-5) also suffered a disappointing second-half of the season s they have lost three of their last four games while failing to cover the point spread in six straight contests (Jagermeister helped with the deletion of the brain cells regarding their game with Boise State where we were winning by two touchdowns as an underdog with just 1:41 left and then … blank). The Rams did rebound in their last regular season game to blowout a bad San Jose State team by a 42-14 score as a 32.5-point favorite. But Colorado State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. The Rams have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. Their offense generated 606 yards of offense in that contest — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. Colorado State has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after playing at least two straight games against Mountain West Conference opponents. This team has not been a very team on neutral fields where they are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games. The Rams have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 bowl games — and head coach Mike Bobo has lost his first two bowl games with the program. 10* CFB Marshall-Colorado State New Mexico Bowl Special with the Marshall Thundering Herd (207) plus the points versus the Colorado State Rams (208). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (206) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (205). Oregon (7-5) enters this game coming off a big 69-10 win over Oregon State as a 26-point favorite back on November 25th. Since that game, first-year head coach jilted the program by taking his dream job at Florida State. The Ducks have since named offensive coordinator Mario Cristobal as the new head coach which is fine — and I do not see that move impacting this team in either direction for this Bowl game. However, I am troubled by the decisions of running back Royce Freeman along with offensive linemen Tyrell Crosby and Jake Pisarcik to bypass playing in this game to not risk injury and their draft status as they hope to be picked high by an NFL team in April (and this is one of the reasons why I don’t like to be too hasty in picking these bowl games). As it is, Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread win — and they are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a straight-up victory. Additionally, the Ducks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a win by at least 20 points. And in their last 13 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game, Oregon is just 3-9-1 ATS. The Ducks do have their talented sophomore QB Justin Herbert back under center — and they were much better on offense with him the starting quarterback. Yet that is one of the reasons why they are laying around a touchdown to a solid Broncos team — and they are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games against non-conference opponents.

Boise State (10-3) has won eight of their last nine games after they won the Mountain West Conference Championship Game with their 17-14 win over Fresno State. The Broncos have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. Boise State has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. This a dangerous underdog because they play so good on defense. The Broncos allow 22.5 PPG while ranking 23rd in the FBS by limiting opponents to just 336.7 total YPG. Quarterback Brett Rypien is playing his best football of the year to close out the season. This team has only forced one turnover in their last two games — but the Regression Gods may be taking notice as they have then covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after failing to force more than one turnover in two straight games. And while this Boise State team has not covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. 20* CFB Oregon-Boise State Las Vegas Bowl Special with the Boise State Broncos (206) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (205). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia State Panthers (203) plus the points versus the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (204). Georgia State (6-5) has lost two straight games with their 24-10 upset loss to Idaho on December 2nd despite being a 7.5-point favorite. The Panthers should bounce-back with an inspired effort in just their second bowl game in the program’s history. The team also received a shot in the arm with sophomore wide receiver Penny Hart being upgraded to probable after dealing with a foot injury. As it is, Georgia State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after suffering two straight losses — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 road games after losing two straight losses. Additionally, the Panthers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss to a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss to a conference rival. Part of what did Georgia State in against the Vandals was a -4 net turnover margin — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a game where they had at least a -3 net turnover margin. And while the Panthers offense has scored only 20 combined points in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring no more than 17 points in two straight games. Moving forward, Georgia State has covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 road games played on a Saturday. They were 5-1 away from home this season. They have a good QB in senior Connor Manning who was a former Utah player before transferring. And in their last 23 games as an underdog, the Panthers have covered the point spread 14 times.

Western Kentucky (6-6) has lost five of their last six games with their 41-17 loss at Florida International back on November 24th as a 3-point favorite. The Hilltoppers may have trouble rebounding from that loss as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up loss. Additionally, Western Kentucky has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss by at least 20 points. And in their last 9 games after allowing at least 40 points, the Hilltoppers are just 2-6-1 ATS. This team has seen their offensive production regress this season under first-year head coach Mike Sanford despite his previous experience as the offensive coordinator at Notre Dame. The Western Kentucky offense returned senior QB Mike White from an offense that averaged 45.5 PPG — but they saw that production drop by almost 20 PPG as they are scoring just 26.2 PPG this season. The offensive line is certainly one of the factors in this decline as they lost three NFL caliber linemen from last year’s team. This season, the Hilltoppers are averaging just 2.1 Yards-Per-Carry while allowing 41 sacks. The lack of a credible rushing attack is a concern for this game: Western Kentucky is 129th in the FBS by averaging just 66.1 rushing YPG. The Hilltoppers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams from the Sun Belt Conference. Lastly, Western Kentucky has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as the favorite. 10* CFB Georgia State-Western Kentucky Cure Bowl Special with the Georgia State Panthers (203) plus the points versus the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (204). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Texas Mean Green (201) plus the points versus Troy Trojans (202) in the New Orleans Bowl. North Texas (9-4) saw their five-game winning streak snapped in the Conference USA Championship Game in a rough 41-17 loss at Florida Atlantic in December 2nd as an 11-point underdog. Look for the Mean Green to be motivated to redeem themselves from that bad effort and secure a ten-win season for the football program. North Texas has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. And while the Mean Green went into the locker room with a 27-0 half time deficit, they have then covered the point spread 10 of their last 12 games on the road after trailing by at least 24 points at the half in their last game. Additionally, North Texas has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last contest. The Mean Green did surrender 352 yards of offense to the Owls in that last loss — but they have then covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after allowing at least 325 passing yards in their last contest. North Texas likely has the edge at QB with Mason Fine who completed 64% of his passes while passing 28 touchdown passes to just 13 interceptions. He led his offense to 437 yards against FAU — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Mean Green has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against non-conference opponents.

Troy (10-2) has won six straight games which helped them tie for first place in the Sun Belt Conference after a 32-25 win at Arkansas State as a 1-point favorite. Frankly, the Trojans were outplayed by the Red Wolves as they lost the first down battle by a 32-14 margin while getting outgained by a horrendous 606 to 293 margin. Three interceptions — one returned for a 100-yard touchdown to create a 14-point swing — contributed to a +2 net turnover margin. Troy also returned a 99-yard kickoff return for a touchdown to help overcome getting clobbered at the line of scrimmage. Most metrics give the edge to North Texas in the Special Teams Department for this game — so it is unlikely that the Trojans will benefit from Special Teams in this contest. The Trojans are the public team in this game with their high profile win over LSU this season. They also have a defense that ranked 11th in the FBS by allowing 17.5 PPG. But this team is riddled with injuries with safety Kris Weatherspoon and cornerback Blake Brown both out for this game. QB Brandon Silvers will also be without one of his best weapons in wide receiver Emanuel Thompson. Silvers seemed to regress this season as he tossed only 13 touchdown passes as compared to 23 TD passes last season. Troy has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. The Trojans have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against non-conference opponents. 20* CFB North Texas-Troy New Orleans Bowl Special with the North Texas Mean Green (201) plus the points versus Troy Trojans (202) in the New Orleans Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Navy Midshipmen (104) minus the points versus the Army West Point Black Knights (103). Navy (6-5) saw their fourteen-game winning streak in this series snapped last year with their 21-17 loss to Army despite being a 6-point favorite. We had the Black Knights in this game last year — but we will take the Midshipmen to earn their revenge on Saturday. Navy has lost five of their last six games which may scare off some bettors — but this was during a tough stretch of games in the American Athletic Conference. The Midshipmen lost their games to Memphis, Houston, Central Florida, Temple as well as their non-conference tilt with Notre Dame while defeating SMU. What all those teams have in common is that they earned the right to play in a bowl game. Navy has also defeated Tulane who beat these Black Knights two weeks later. The Midshipmen also defeated Lane Kiffin’s Florida Atlantic team before the betting public fell in love with that team. Despite their 6-5 record against a challenging schedule, Navy outgained their opponents by +38.8 net YPG. The Midshipmen take the field again looking to bounce-back from their 24-17 loss at Houston as a 6.5-point underdog. Navy is then 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a point spread loss. The Midshipmen have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after failing to score more than 20 points. Navy has struggled on offense as they have scored only 31 combined points over their last two games. But the Midshipmen have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 road games after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. Navy has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games after losing three of their last four games. The extra time off should five junior QB Zach Abbey more time to recover from a concussion he suffered late in the season — although he did play against the Cougars. Head coach Ken Niumatalolu has also used slot receiver Malcolm Perry under center which gives his team more options to move the ball. Turnovers have been an issue at times for this team but they have only committed one turnover in each of their last two games. The Midshipmen have covered the point spread in 40 of their last 56 road games after not committing more than one turnover in at least two straight games. Furthermore, Navy is 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record this season.

Army (8-3) enters this rivalry game coming off their 52-49 win a North Texas back on November 18th. That loss snapped the Black Knights’ six-game winning streak — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss. Army has also failed to cover then point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Additionally, the Black Knights have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after winning two of their last three games. And in their last 49 games after a bye week, Army has failed to cover the point spread 35 times. A weakness for this team is their utter lack of a passing attack as they rank 129th in the nation by averaging just 30.5 passing YPG. While both these teams run spread triple options, Navy has more a credible passing attack to account for as they average nearly three times as many passing YPG with 91.2 passing YPG. Lastly, the Black Knights are only outgaining their opponents by +12.4 YPG away from home which is far below the +29.1 net YPG average for Navy when on the road. Take the more battle-tested team playing with revenge on their minds a year after Army finally toppled their arch rival in their most important game of the season. 25* CFB CBS-TV Game of the Year with the Navy Midshipmen (104) minus the points versus the Army West Point Black Knights (103). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (327) minus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (328). Wisconsin (12-0) remains the last undefeated football team representing a Power Five Conference — but they have also benefited from a very favorable schedule. The Big Ten West Division is by far the weaker of the two divisions in that conference with Northwestern and Iowa being the most competitive teams to the Badgers. Wisconsin’s non-conference schedule may have appeared more of a challenge when the games were negotiated a few years ago — but in 2017, a slate of Utah State, BYU and Florida Atlantic was not nearly as difficult as it might have appeared even during the summer with Lane Kiffin’s Owls now considered the best team of that trio (by far). So while the Badgers have the second best scoring defense in the nation while allowing the least YPG (236.9 total YPG) in the entire FBS, this light strength of schedule should provide context to those numbers. This will be by far the most powerful offense that Wisconsin has faced all season. They returned seven starters on defense from a group that lost by a 30-23 score on their home field last season to the Buckeyes while giving up 411 yards of offense. Now this Championship Game will be played on a neutral field at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis — and the Badgers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played on a neutral field. Wisconsin enters this game coming off a 31-0 shutout win at Minnesota last Saturday in a game where they went into halftime with a 17-0 lead. But the Badgers have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win by at least four touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after leading by at least 17 points at halftime of their last game. QB Alex Hornibrook did not throw an interception in that game which was the first time that did not happen in eight contests. The sophomore’s 13 interceptions this season is a significant concern for this team. Hornibrook did lead an offense that averaged 7.6 Yards-Per-Play in that game against the Gophers — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 6.75 YPP in their last game.

Ohio State (10-2) kept their National Championship hopes alive last week by defeating Michigan in Ann Arbor by a 31-20 score. The Buckeyes have won three straight games after their ugly loss at Iowa — and they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning three of their last out games. Senior QB J.T. Barrett will be available to play in this game after he suffered a freak knee injury before their game with the Wolverines which required minor surgery this week. If Barrett cannot go, I do have confidence in freshman Dwayne Haskins. Did you see this guy last week? Haskins competed 6 of his 7 passes for 94 yards while adding another 101 yards with a touchdown on 15 carries running the football against a stout Michigan defense that is probably better than this Badgers group (the Wolverines slightly inferior numbers have been against much better competition). Ohio State entered this season as one of the most talented teams in the nation. They have been the victim of their own mistakes too often than not. But like they overwhelmed Michigan State and dominated Penn State to pull off a miracle comeback after their mistakes put them in a almost insurmountable hole, this team is very tough to beat when playing sound football. Under head coach Urban Meyer, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games. And in their last 9 meetings with these Badgers, the Buckeyes are 6-2-1 ATS. 25* CFB Saturday Night Fox-TV Game of the Year with the Ohio State Buckeyes (327) minus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (328). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (325) plus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (326). Miami (10-1) suffered their first loss of the season last week in their 24-14 upset loss at Pittsburgh as a 12-point favorite. We had the Panthers in that game as we expected the Hurricanes to struggle in the cold weather up north. This Miami team tends to play up-and-down to their competition — which might be very bad news for the current number one team in the nation. Remember that the Hurricanes defeated Virginia Tech, Notre Dame and at Florida State by a combined score of 93-38. And while Miami is dealing with injuries on offense, they still have their junior QB Malik Rosier along with their stifling defensive front seven. Look for Mark Richt’s team to bounce-back with a very good effort. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss on the road. Additionally, the Hurricanes have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points.

10* CFB play on Miami plus the points. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

TO BE CONTINUED -- please check back before this game begins for my full written Report before this game starts -- and I also reserve the right to raise the Star Value of this play (while you still get it at the discounted price by buying early). Given the high volume of plays I offer clients, I am providing an initial “abridged version” of the play to get them posted faster to accommodate my Daily, Weekly and Monthly subscribers so they can begin shopping lines. My research is detailed for our plays (which I do complete before endorsing a play) but it does take some time to write the more detailed Reports that clients have grown to count on. Thanks, Frank.

At 7:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (323) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (324). Boise State (9-3) has the rare opportunity to extract immediate revenge an opponent as they host a Fresno State team that defeated them last week by a 28-17 score. That was a strange circumstance as this Mountain West Conference Championship Game was locked-in with only the location of the contest being in doubt. The MWC determines first place based off a mathematical algorithm which deemed Boise State the top team in the league after crunching all the conference results last week. It might be tempting for many bettors to take the Broncos in this revenge situation with them now hosting this rematch — but I am not sure if last week’s game really qualifies since both teams were likely holding some tricks under their sleeve. Furthermore, Boise State has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games on their blue field at home. And the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. Additionally, Boise State has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 7 games in the month of December, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread 5 times.

Fresno State (9-3) has an outstanding defense that should keep travel and keep them competitive in this rematch. The Bulldogs are 12th in the nation by allowing 17.3 PPG while ranking 16th in the FBS by giving up just 315.3 total YPG. Look for Fresno State to build off their momentum from last week as they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 6 games on the road, Fresno State is 5-0-1 ATS. 10* CFB Fresno State-Boise State ESPN Special with the Fresno State Bulldogs (323) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (324). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (322) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (321). Auburn (10-2) registered one of their biggest wins in school history last Saturday with their 26-14 upset win over a previously undefeated Alabama team as a 6-point underdog. This Tigers team will be hard pressed to not suffer an emotional letdown now after that huge accomplishment. Even worse, they will be playing a Georgia team that they crushed less than a month ago in their 40-17 drubbing of the Bulldogs. We had the Tigers as the small 2.5-point underdog in that contest (our SEC Game of the Year) so those were great results for us — and that result also set up this outstanding situation in the rematch. It is human nature for teams to lack just a little bit of edge after their intense game with Alabama when now facing a team that you just easily handled. And as it is, Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after an upset victory as a home under. But the effort from that game may take a toll against this fired-up Georgia team. Running back Kerryon Johnson ran the ball 30 times for 104 yards against the tough Alabama defense which is a lot of work. Furthermore, both the Tigers’ wins against Georgia and Alabama were at home. This game will be played on a neutral field in Atlanta in the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Both of Auburn’s losses were away from home this season — and they average almost 55 YPG (415.6 YPG) below their season average (470.2 total YPG) when playing on the road.

Georgia (11-1) has that rare opportunity for both revenge and redemption all in one-swoop while most likely earning the right to play for a National Championship with a victory in this contest. The Bulldogs did not suffer from possibly seeing their bubble burst two weeks ago as they throttled their in-state rival Georgia Tech by a 38-7 score last week. Georgia has then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win by at least 20 points. The Bulldogs are led by two dynamic running backs in Nick Chubb and Sony Michel who helped Georgia generate 247 yards on the ground against the Yellow Jackets — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after rushing or at least 200 yards in their last game. But the strength of this team is their defense that ranks 5th in the FBS by allowing 13.8 PPG and 4th in the nation by allowing only 271.9 total YPG. Since that bad loss to Auburn, Georgia has allowed only 20 points in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 road games after not allowing more than 14 points in at least two straight contests. The Bulldogs should have a geographical advantage with this game being played in downtown Atlanta — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when played on a neutral field. Georgia has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the month of December. And in their last 7 games against Auburn despite their loss to them last month, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 5 of these games. 25* CFB Conference Championships Game of the Year with the Georgia Bulldogs (322) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (321). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the TCU Horned Frogs (333) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (334). TCU (10-2) looks to avenge a 38-20 loss to the Sooners back on November 11th. The Horned Frogs went into the locker room at the half throttled by a 38-14 score. And while the Sooners may have taken their foot slightly off the accelerator in the second half of that contest, lets take note of the fact that TCU held that powerful Oklahoma offense scoreless in the second-half. Head coach Gary Patterson is a defensive guru who makes a great adjustments. In fact, his defense has allowed only six combined points after halftime in their last seven games. Overall, the Horned Frogs are holding their opponents -122 YPG below their offensive season average this season. TCU enters this game coming off their 45-22 win over Baylor as 24.5-point favorites. Senior QB Kenny Allen enjoyed a great game by completing 26 of 36 passes for 325 yards with three TDs against the Bears — so he should be full of confidence entering this game. The Horned Frogs have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. And in their last 4 games played on field turf, TCU has covered the point spread all 4 times.

Oklahoma (11-1) enters this game on fire after their 59-31 win over West Virginia as a 23-point favorite. The Sooners generated 646 yards of offense in that victory — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Defense remains an issue for this team — their opponents gained +3 yards above their season average this season. I also have lingering concerns about the inexperienced first-year head coach Lincoln Riley preparing his team for high-pressure situations like this. Lastly, the Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games played on a neutral field. 10* CFB TCU-Oklahoma Fox-TV Special with the TCU Horned Frogs (333) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (334). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida International Golden Panthers (330) plus (or minus) the points versus the UMass Minutemen (329). FIU (7-4) enters this game coming off an upset victory over Western Kentucky by a 41-17 score as a 3-point underdog. The Golden Panthers have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a win by at least 20 points. FIU has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And in their last 32 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Golden Panthers enjoyed a +3 net turnover margin against the Hilltoppers — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a net turnover margin of +3 or higher. Now this team stays at home where they are 5-1 this season with an average winning margin of +7.3 PPG while outgaining these visitors by +73.3 YPG. FIU limits their guests to just 18.3 PPG along with only 352.2 total YPG. And while the Golden Panthers’ win over Western Kentucky just finished Over the 56.5 point Total, they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their lsat 9 home games after a game that finished Over the Total.

UMass (4-7) has won four of their last five games after their 16-10 upset win at BYY two weeks ago as a 3.5-point underdog. But the Minutemen have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a game where less than 30 combined points were scored. And while UMass held the Cougars to just 42 rushing yards in their last game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing no more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. Many pundits consider this team underrated given a host of close losses they endured earlier in the season. But the Minutemen have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Lastly, in their last 7 road games with the Total set in the 52.5 to 56 point range, UMass has failed to cover the point spread 6 times. 10* CFB Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Florida International Golden Panthers (330) plus (or minus) the points versus the UMass Minutemen (329). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Memphis Tigers (317) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (318). Central Florida (11-0) looks to win the American Athletic Conference Championship while also clinching the Group of Five slot in a New Year’s Six Bowl Game this afternoon by defeating the Tigers for a second time this season after they easily disposed of them back on September 30th by a 40-13 score. The rematch will be harder sledding for this team. I worry about distractions for this team — particularly with their head coach Scott Frost who seems likely to take the Nebraska head coaching job soon to rejoin his alma mater. The Knights come off a 49-42 win over South Florida as a 10-point favorite last Friday — but they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up win. Central Florida has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Knights were outgained in that contest by +120 net yards to the Bulls. They surrendered  653 total yards to South Florida including a whopping 503 passing yards in that contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Moving forward, UCF is just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 5 games against conference opponents, the Knights are 0-3-1 ATS.

Memphis (10-1) has won seven games in a row with their 70-13 victory over East Carolina last week as a 29.5-point favorite. The Tigers are then 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Memphis is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a win by at least 20 points. And this team is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Tigers have defeated five of their seven opponents by at least three touchdowns after suffering their lone loss of the season to the Knights by a 40-13 score. Four turnovers did Memphis in for that game. But with Riley Ferguson under center, the Tigers have the offensive firepower to stay competitive with this undefeated UCF team if they do not make mistakes. Lastly, Memphis has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road. Together, these team trends produce our specific 44-8-7 ATS combined angle for this situation. 20* CFB Memphis-Central Florida ABC-TV Special with the Memphis Tigers (317) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (318). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Akron Zips (319) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (320). Toledo (10-2) is expected to roll this afternoon in the Mid-American Conference Championship after easily disposing of the Zips back on October 21st by a 48-21 score. Frankly, the Rockets were expecting to be getting a rematch against Ohio in this MAC Championship at Ford Field in Detroit but Akron ruined those plans by upsetting the Bobcats late in the season. Toledo lost to that Ohio team by a 38-10 score. Now as big favorites approaching three touchdowns, this Toledo team risks being overconfident. As it is, they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in the month of December. The Rockets are also just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in the month of December. Furthermore, Toledo has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games played on a neutral field with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. And while the Rockets have scored 66 and 37 points in their last two games after that loss to the Bobcats, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after scoring at least 31 points in their last two games.

Akron (7-5) has won three of their last four games after their loss to Toledo. The Zips clinched the MAC East Division Title with their 24-14 win over Kent State as a 14.5-point favorite. This team will be a dangerous underdog with no expectations in this game under the veteran head coach Terry Bowden. Akron has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up victory. The Zips have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Additionally, while Akron held the Golden Flashes to just 246 yards of offense, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing 275 or fewer yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Zips have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 9 games against conference opponents, Akron has covered the point spread 7 times. 10* CFB Akron-Toledo ESPN Special with the Akron Zips (319) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (320). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the USC Trojans (304) minus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (303). USC (10-2) has the benefit of an extra week to prepare for the Pac-12 Championship Game as they take the field again after their 28-28 win over UCLA back on November 18th. The Trojans not only have a significant situational edge in facing a Cardinal team playing on a short week but they also have a huge advantage at quarterback with Sam Darnold dueling a freshman in K.J. Costello. USC is playing as good of football as they have all season having won six of their last seven games after losing at Washington State. The Trojans have covered then point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Over their last three games, the USC offense is clicking on all cylinders by scoring 38.3 PPG while averaging 527.0 total YPG. The Trojans held the Bruins to just 80 rushing yards in their last game — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their last game. USC did allow 501 total yards against UCLA with the Bruins passing for 421 yards — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 475 yards in their last contest. Potent passing attacks are typically the ones that give the Trojans the most trouble (with Notre Dame and their diverse rushing attack being the exception) as they rank 105th in the nation by allowing 251 passing YPG — but that is not the Stanford offensive approach. Against conference opponents, USC is allowing their opponents to complete just 56% of their passes while averaging only 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry. Furthermore, the Trojans have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when listed in the 3.5 to 10-point range. 

Stanford (9-3) will be playing on a short week after they pulled the upset last Saturday at home with their 38-20 win over Notre Dame as a 3-point underdog. The Cardinal has then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread victory. Stanford is also 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a straight-up win. The Cardinal did defeat the Irish despite gaining only 328 yards of offense and getting outgained by -87 net yards. Stanford’s +3 net turnover margin was the difference in that contest. But now this team goes on the road to the neutral field of Levi Stadium in Santa Clara — and the Cardinal is getting outgained away from home by -59.7 net YPG. In Pac-12 play, Stanford is getting outgained by -21 YPG. In comparison, USC is outgaining their conference opponents by +93 YPG. Lastly, USC needs as many style points as they can muster to hold out hope that if a bunch of crazy things happen tomorrow, then perhaps they can sneak into the four-team College Playoff. The Trojans will be very anxious to win this game by as many points as possible — so don’t expect them taking the foot of the proverbial gas pedal. 20* CFB Stanford-USC ESPN Special with the USC Trojans (304) minus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (195) minus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (196). Notre Dame (9-2) enters this rivalry game coming off their 24-17 win over Navy as a 21-point favorite. The Fighting Irish have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. Notre Dame has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 20 points  or less in their last game. Now the Irish go on the road where they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 road games with the Total set in the 52.5 to 56 point range. And in their last 5 trips to Palo Alto, the Fighting Irish have covered the point spread in 4 of these contests.

Stanford (8-3) enters this game coming off their 17-14 win over California last week. But the Cardinal is just 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up win. Stanford has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. This Cardinal run defense is not nearly as tough as they have been in previous seasons. They are allowing Pac-12 opponents to average 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry. 10* CFB Notre Dame-Stanford ABC-TV Special with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (195) minus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (196). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Washington State Cougars (183) plus the points versus the Washington Huskies (184). Washington State (9-2) has had an extra week of rest and preparation for the Apple Bowl after their 33-25 win at Utah back on November 11th as a 1-point favorite. A victory secures them the Pac-12 West Championship and a spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game next week — so this Washington State team should be a dangerous underdog. The Cougars have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after a point spread victory. QB Luke Falk completed 40 of his 69 passes for 311 yards and three TD passes against the Utes. Washington State has covered the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Falk has always made his team a dangerous underdog with his ability to move the ball with his arm. The Cougars have covered then point spread in 11 of their last 15 games as an underdog — and this includes covering the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games when getting the points. Furthermore, Washington State has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home road games against teams with a winning record at home.

Washington (9-2) enters this rivalry game coming off their 33-30 win over Utah last Saturday. The Huskies have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after win by a field goal or less against a conference rival. Washington has also failed to cover the point spread in 42 of their last 67 situations where these conditions applied. The Huskies can only play the role of spoiler in this game as their potential victory here opens the door for Stanford rather than the Cougars to play USC for the Pac-12 Championship. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Washington State Cougars (183) plus the points versus the Washington Huskies (184). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (202) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (201). Fresno State (8-3) returns home after a triumphant 13-7 win at Wyoming as a 3-point favorite. The Bulldogs are then 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread victory. This Fresno State team displayed their formula for success to pull the upset in this contest as they controlled the football for 35:32 for this contest. Now they return home where they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games. And in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in all 8 contests.

Boise State (9-2) enters this game coming off their 44-19 win over Air Force last week in a game where they averaged 7.25 Yards-Per-Play. The Broncos have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 7.25 YPP. And while this Boise State has averaged 534.5 total YPG in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after averaging at least 525 YPG in their last two games. Furthermore, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Fresno State Bulldogs (202) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (201). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (163) plus the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (164). Kansas State (6-5) enters this game coming off a big 45-40 upset victory on the road at Oklahoma State last week as a 19.5-point underdog. The Wildcats won that game despite losing the first down battle by a 30-18 margin while being outgained by 89 yards. Expect Kansas State to suffer a letdown in this game against a feisty Cyclones team. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread win. Kansas State did rush for 217 yards in that game — but they are then just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. And in their last 10 home games as the favorite rather than the underdog role that head coach Bill Snyder loves to have his team embrace, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of these games.

Iowa State (7-4) looks to build off their 23-13 win at Baylor last week as a 7.5-point favorite. The Cyclones are then 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a straight-up win — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Iowa State is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after holding their last opponent to no more than 20 points. The Cyclones have been capable road warriors who are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road — and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, Iowa State is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 6 meetings with the Wildcats, the Cyclones are 4-1-1 ATS. Together, these team trends produce our specific 48-9-9 ATS combined angle for this situation. 25* CFB Big 12 Game of the Year with the Iowa State Cyclones (163) plus the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (164). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Auburn Tigers (226) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (225). Alabama (11-0) enters the Iron Bowl still undefeated with their 56-0 win over Mercer last week as a 49.5-point favorite. But the Crimson Tide have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. And this Alabama team has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing no more than 20 points in their last contest. This team is typically overvalued by the betting public given the great success they have enjoyed under head coach Nick Saban. But this year’s group has some flaws. Their defense is banged up a bit. And sophomore QB Jalen Hurts has not shown the ability to offer a consistent threat in their vertical passing game. This lack of diversity on offense will hurt them on the road against a quality opponent (like it did at Mississippi State). It is telling that Alabama has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 5 games in the month of November, the Crimson Tide has failed to cover the point spread 4 times. Interestingly, Saban has lost all six of his games as a head coach — three with Alabama and three with LSU — when facing an Auburn that finishes the year with at least nine wins.

Auburn (9-2) enters this game coming off an easy 42-14 win over UL-Monroe last week as a 38-point favorite. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Auburn is also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while the Tigers rolled up 552 yards of offense last week, they are then 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. QB Jarrett Stidham has been outstanding over his last three games where he has 8 TD passes and just one interception while averaging over 200 passing YPG. The Tigers’ two losses this season were close games against LSU and Clemson. Auburn is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games against SEC opponents. And in their last 5 games in the month of November, the Tigers have covered the point spread in 4 of these games. 20* CFB Alabama-Auburn CBS-TV Special with the Auburn Tigers (226) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (225). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Nevada Wolf Pack (182) minus the points versus the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (181). Nevada (2-9) has lost four of their last five games with their 42-23 loss at San Diego State last week. Now this team returns home to close out their season in a rivalry game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Wolf Pack have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Nevada QB Ty Gangi completed 33 of his 54 passes for 414 yards and three TD passes in that game — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after passing at least 280 yards in their last game. The Wolf Pack have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 12 games in the month of November, Nevada is 8-3-1 ATS.

UNLV (5-6) has won three of their last four games with their 38-35 upset win at Nevada last week as a 2.5-point underdog. The Runnin’ Rebels have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 15 road games after a win against a conference rival. And while UNLV has played two straight Overs, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games after playing two straight Overs. And the Rebels have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after winning two of their last three games. Now this team stays on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Lastly, in their last 7 trips to Reno to face Nevada, UNLV has failed to cover the point spread 5 times. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Nevada Wolf Pack (182) minus the points versus the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (181). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (168) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (167). Georgia (10-1) has a date with the Alabama-Auburn winner next week regardless of the outcome of this game — but they risk looking ahead to that showdown in lieu of their in-state rival in a competition that they perhaps do not take quite as seriously as does their opponent. Facing the unique spread triple option of the Paul Johnson Yellow Jackets’ offense is not the attack to take lightly in practice during the week — and that is why many programs with big ambitions like to schedule Georgia Tech with an extra week of practice. The Bulldogs used to schedule Georgia Southern to help them prepare for this game since they used to run a similar offense — but this will be the first spread triple option attack this defense has seen all season. Georgia enters this game coming off their 42-13 win over Kentucky last week — but they are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Bulldogs held the Wildcats to just 262 yards of offense in that game — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after allowing no more than 275 yards in their last game. And in their last 5 games in the month of November, Georgia has failed to cover the point spread 4 times.

Georgia Tech (5-5) looks to bounce-back from their 43-20 upset loss at Duke last Saturday. The Yellow Jackets have then rebounded to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a loss by at least 20 points. And while Georgia Tech allowed 500 yards to the Blue Devils, they are also 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. The Yellow Jackets return home where they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games. And in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record , Georgia Tech is 7-1-1 ATS. Together, these team trends produce our specific 68-17-4 ATS combined angle for this situation. 20* CFB Georgia-Georgia Tech ABC-TV Special with the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (168) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (167). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Southern Methodist Mustangs (204) minus the points versus the Tulane Green Wave (203). SMU (6-5) looks to bounce-back from their 66-45 loss at Memphis last week. The Mustangs need a win after losing their last three games — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home. Defense is definitely a concern for this SMU team that surrendered 664 yards to the Tigers last week. The Mustangs do have the benefit of having practiced and played against another triple option team two weeks ago when they faced Navy. SMU has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. And in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record, the Mustangs have covered the point spread in 7 of these games.

Tulane (5-6) has won two straight games with their 20-17 upset win over Houston as a 9.5-point underdog. The Green Wave have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. Tulane has also failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 30 road gams after winning at least two straight games. The Green Wave allowed 220 rushing yards to the Cougars in that victory — and they are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing at least 200 yards rushing in their last game. Now Tulane goes back on the road where they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. 10* CFB Tulane-SMU CBS Sports Network Special with the Southern Methodist Mustangs (204) minus the points versus the Tulane Green Wave (203). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (153) minus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (154). Michigan (8-3) limps into The Game coming off a 24-10 loss at Wisconsin last week as a 6.5-point underdog. Unfortunately for the Wolverines, they lost their redshirt freshman quarterback Brandon Peters to a concussion in that game (which likely also cost them the point spread cover — and perhaps even an outright victory). Peters has not practiced this week with head coach Jim Harbaugh mum on who will be under center for his offense. The answer is likely John O’Korn despite the fact that the 5th year senior has been completely ineffective operating the passing game after he took over for the injured Wilton Spright. The fundamental problem for O’Korn is his inability to grasp the skills in reading progressions after his primary initial receiver. The book was written on O’Korn by the end of his freshman season at Houston — and it is the reason he was eventually benched his sophomore year. And despite Quarterback Camps and transferring to play for the Quarterback Whisperer in Harbaugh, O’Korn simply has not been able to develop this skill. It happens. But now defenses can cheat in coverage and in stacking the box to stop the run based off his initial movements — and this gives opposing defenses too much of an advantage because O’Korn has not shown the ability to burn them. As it is, Michigan is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after a straight-up loss. And while the Wolverines managed just 234 yards of offense against the Badgers, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards of offense. The Big House has not been much of an advantage for this team as of late either as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 4 games against teams with a winning record, the Wolverines are 0-3-1 ATS.

Ohio State (9-2) enters this game with plenty at stake with a victory ensuring them a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game against Wisconsin where a victory there will put them in a very good position to find their way into the College Football Playoff. QB J.T. Barrett cost his team with interceptions in their bad loss on the road at Iowa. Not only do I expect Barrett to play better in this rivalry game in his senior season but head coach Urban Meyer will likely emphasize running the football behind a very motivated sophomore running back Mike Weber from Detroit who spurned the Wolverines in a recruiting battle to attend Ohio State. The Buckeyes enter this game coming off their 52-14 win over Illinois last week in a game where their defense held the Illini to just 105 yards of offense. Ohio State is then 42-20-2 ATS in their last 64 games after allowing no more than 275 yards in their last game. The Buckeyes are also 45-24-1 ATS in their last 70 games on the road — and they are 37-15-1 ATS in their last 53 games on the road against teams with a winning record at home. Lastly, not only have the Buckeyes covered the point spread in 7 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams but they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 trips to Ann Arbor. 25* CFB Rivalry Game of the Month with the Ohio State Buckeyes (153) minus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (154). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Texas Tech Red Raiders (141) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (142). Texas Tech (5-6) has lost five of their last six games with their 27-3 loss to TCU last week as a 6.5-point underdog. The Red Raiders still have plenty to play for in this game as not only would a win make them bowl eligible at 6-6 (after missing bowl game last year) but it would also avenge a 45-37 loss to their arch rival Texas from last season. Texas Tech actually outgained the Horned Frogs by 38 net yards but were done in by fumbling the ball on their 1-yard line that TCU scooped and landed in the end-zone helped turn the tide the other way. The Red Raiders are 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 games after a double-digit loss at home. Texas Tech is also 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 games after scoring at least 20 points in their last game. The defense did allow 204 rushing yards to the Horned Frogs — but they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. And in their last 13 games in the month of November, Texas Tech has covered the point spread 9 times.

Texas (6-5) comes off a 28-14 upset win at West Virginia last Saturday as a 3-point underdog. But now officially bowl eligible, this team might suffer a bit of a letdown when facing this team they earned one of their five wins against last season. The Longhorns are not as comfortable as of late as the favorite either as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 home games when laying 7.5 to 10 points. Additionally, Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the month of November. And in their last 4 games played on a Friday night, the Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in all 4 contests. Together, these team trends produce our specific 70-37-3 ATS combined angle for this situation. 10* CFB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Texas Tech Red Raiders (141) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Virginia Cavaliers (120) plus the points versus the Virginia Tech Hokies (119). Virginia Tech (8-3) survived a 20-14 win over Pittsburgh last week despite seeing the Panthers on their 1-yard line with a first down late in that game before their defense stepped up to save that game. The Hokies defense surrendered 311 yards to a freshman QB in that game — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Now this game goes on the road where their defense is allowing an uncharactertic 409.4 total YPG for a defense coached by coordinator Bud Carson. Virginia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Moving forward, the Hokies have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against fellow ACC opponents. And in their last 8 games in the month of November, Virginia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these contests. 

10* CFB play on Virginia plus the points. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

TO BE CONTINUED -- please check back before this game begins for my full written Report before this game starts -- and I also reserve the right to raise the Star Value of this play (while you still get it at the discounted price by buying early). Given the high volume of plays I offer clients, I am providing an initial “abridged version” of the play to get them posted faster to accommodate my Daily, Weekly and Monthly subscribers so they can begin shopping lines. My research is detailed for our plays (which I do complete before endorsing a play) but it does take some time to write the more detailed Reports that clients have grown to count on. Thanks, Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the South Florida Bulls (137) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (138). Central Florida (10-0) remained unbeaten last week with their 45-19 win in Temple — but the game could have been much closer than what that final score suggests. The Knights benefited from a +5 net turnover margin to easily overcome actually being outgained by the Owls in that game. Central Florida carries with them the pressure of not only staying undefeated but the risk of significant disappointment of not even reaching the American Athletic Conference Championship Game with a loss to this dangerous Bulls team. As it is, the Knights are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. And while Central Florida has scored at least 31 points in all ten of their games this season, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10g ames after scoring at least 31 points in at least five straight games. Additionally, the Knights are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 5 games in the month of November, Central Florida has failed to cover the point spread 4 times.

South Florida (9-1) has the advantage of two extra days of rest and preparation for this game as they come off a 27-20 win over Tulsa last Thursday. The Bulls have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 home games after a win at home. And while South Florida enjoyed a 24-17 halftime lead against the Golden Hurricanes, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first-half of their last game. The Bulls are undefeated on the road where they have outscored their home hosts by +18.3 PPG while outgaining them by +172.3 net YPG — so they will be a very tough out for the Knights this afternoon. South Florida has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games against conference opponents. The Bulls have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 9 games on the month of November, South Florida has covered the point spread 6 times. Together, these team trends produce our specific 61-27-2 ATS combined angle for this situation. 10* CFB South Florida-Central Florida ABC-TV Special with the South Florida Bulls (137) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (138). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Arkansas Razorbacks (126) plus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (125). Arkansas (4-7) will likely be playing their last game for head coach Bret Bielema who may be relieved of his coaching duties with the program after another disappointing season. Bielema is popular with his players so they should be motivated to play well for their coach on the hot seat. The Razorbacks will also have revenge on their mind against this Mizzou team against which they blew a late 4th quarter lead in a 28-24 loss last November 25th. Arkansas enters this game coming off a 28-21 loss to Mississippi State last week — but they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. The Razorbacks only rushed for only 97 yards in that loss to the Bulldogs — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in their last game. Furthermore, Arkansas has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

Missouri (6-5) has won five games in a row with their 45-17 win at Vanderbilt last week. But the Tigers have then failed to over the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win. Mizzou has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after allowing no more than 20 points in their last game. Now the Tigers go back on the road where they are being outgained by -11.5 net YPG this season. Missouri has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games on the road. The Tigers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games as a favorite laying 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB Missouri-Arkansas CBS-TV Special with the Arkansas Razorbacks (126) plus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (125). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Ohio Bobcats (123) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (124). Ohio (8-3) controlled their own destiny to win the MAC East Division title — but that all went away with their 37-34 upset loss at Akron last week. The Zips then went on to clinch the East with a victory on Tuesday — so this Bobcats team will be playing for pride and for positioning for a bowl game next month. But look for Frank Solich’s team to rebound with a strong effort to close out their Mid-American Conference schedule. Ohio has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. The Bobcats had covered the point spread in their three previous games before their upset loss last week — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Additionally, the Bobcats have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as a favorite laying 3.5 to 10 points.

Buffalo (5-6) enters this game coming off their 40-24 win at Ball State as a 17.5-point favorite last week. The Bulls have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a double-digit victory over a conference rival. Buffalo did average 8.43 Yards-Per-Play in their victory — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after averaging at least 7.25 YPP in their last game. Lastly, Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games played in the month of November. 10* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster on the Ohio Bobcats (123) minus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (124). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Panthers (132) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (131). Miami (FL) (10-0) cannot afford to lose a game or risk losing their spot in the College Playoffs. A loss in this game to a 4-7 Pitt team would like keep the Hurricanes out of the Top Four even if they were to move on to defeat Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. This will be the first game that this Miami team will have played in mild weather since playing in Chapel Hill just before Halloween — and that was just a 5-point win against a struggling North Carolina team. The Hurricanes have since enjoyed a favorable schedule with all three of their games at home. Unfortunately for Mark Richt’s team, they tend to play down to the level of competition. Besides that narrow win over the Tar Heels, Miami only defeated Syracuse by 8 points while winning in the final moments against both Florida State and Georgia Tech. Even in their 44-28 win over Virginia last week, they were outgained by 81 yards and needed a 30-yard interception returned for a touchdown to help them overcome two separate 14-point deficits. The Miami run defense has not allowed more than 109 yards in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 40 of their last 63 games after not allowing more than 125 yards in their last contest. Furthermore, the Hurricanes are actually being outgained on the road by -7.3 net YPG which makes them precarious double-digit road favorites now. Additionally, Miami (FL) has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against ACC opponents.

Pittsburgh (4-7) has lost two straight games by just 3 and 6 points in their last two games with their 20-14 loss at Virginia Tech as a 14-point underdog last week. Pitt almost pulled the upset in that game as they had 1st-and-Goal at the 1-yard line late in that game but failed to reach the end zone. The Panthers have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing two straight games to conference rivals by 7 points or less. Freshman QB Kenny Pickett had a good showing for himself against a tough Bud Foster-coached defense as he completed 15 of 23 passes for 242 yards in the effort. Overall, the Panthers passed for 311 yards in that game — and they are 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Lastly, Pitt is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. 10* CFB Miami (FL)-Pittsburgh ABC-TV Special with the Pittsburgh Panthers (132) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (131). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Northern Illinois Huskies (121) minus the points versus the Central Michigan Chippewas (122). Northern Illinois (8-3) still has an outside chance to win the MAC West title and play in next Friday’s Mid-American Conference Championship Game with a victory in this game along with a loss by Toledo in their game concurrently going on with Western Michigan. The Huskies have won two straight games since their loss to the Rockets after their 35-31 win over Western Michigan as an 8.5-point favorite. Northern Illinois has then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Huskies rushed for 248 yards in that victory — and they are then 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Northern Illinois averages 191.8 rushing YPG — and they should have success running the football against this Chippewas defense that ranks 98th in the FBS by allowing 195.5 rushing YPG. Ground games travel which is one of the reasons why Northern Illinois is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Huskies have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games when favored by 3 points or less. And in their last 21 games in the month of November, Northern Illinois is 14-6-1 ATS.

Central Michigan (7-4) looks to build off their 42-23 win at Kent State last week as a 17-point favorite. QB Shane Morris completed 14 of 22 passes for 297 yards in that victory — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. But the Chippewas were outgained by 44 yards in that victory due to giving up 320 passing yards to the lowly Golden Flashes — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Despite their 7-4 record, Central Michigan is only outgaining their opponents by +3.4 net YPG. The Chippewas were fortunate to win all three of their games decided by one scoring possession. Central Michigan has not enjoyed much of a home field advantage either as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Lastly, the Huskies will be playing with revenge on their minds from a 34-28 loss at home to the Chippewas last season. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Game of the Year on the Northern Illinois Huskies (121) minus the points versus the Central Michigan Chippewas (122). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Mississippi Rebels (113) plus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (114). Ole Miss (5-6) imposed a bowl ban on themselves to help mitigate the probable sanctions coming from the NCAA in the aftermath of the Hugh Freeze era — so this year’s Egg Bowl is their proverbial bowl game as they close out this season. The Rebels will be looking to take the bad taste out of their mouth last week where they had a 24-21 lead over Texas A&M at halftime before losing to the Aggies by a 24-21 score. Mississippi has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. The Rebels have also covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a loss to a conference rival. This Ole Miss team will be playing with revenge on their minds after getting upset by the Bulldogs last season by a 55-20 score despite being a 10-point favorite. This team can put up points as they rank 20th in the FBS by averaging 472.1 total YPG led by a passing attack that averages 335.8 passing YPG which is 7th in the nation. Junior QB Jordan Ta’amu has been capable since taking over under center for the injured Shea Patterson. He is averaging a robust 9.5 Yards-Per-Attempt while completing 69.5% of his passes. The Rebels have covered the point spread in expected high scoring games where the Total is set at least at 63. Mississippi has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games as an underdog getting 14.5 to 21 points.

Mississippi State (8-3) enters this game coming off a 28-21 win at Arkansas on Saturday as a 14-point favorite. The Bulldogs have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite Mississippi State has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win over a conference rival. Additionally, the Bulldogs have failed to over the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a game on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win on the road. This team has a high profile win over LSU as well as a high-profile loss two weeks ago at home versus Alabama — but this team is also the only team Power-Five conference team with only seven opponents against fellow Power Five opponents. This Mississippi State team has played two independents (BYU and UMass) as well as a Group of Five team (Louisiana Tech) and an FCS school (Charleston Southern — so perhaps their ranking as the highest-rated three-loss team speaks more about the Playoff Committees’ desire to prop up Alabama, Georgia and Auburn. This team has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 37 games as a favorite laying 10.5 to 21 points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games played on a Thursday night. And in the last 5 meetings between these two teams, the underdog has covered the point spread in 4 of these encounters. Together, these team trends produce our specific 101-57 ATS combined angle for this situation. 10* CFB Ole Miss-Mississippi State ESPN Special with the Mississippi Rebels (113) plus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) Red Hawks (105) minus the points versus the Ball State Cardinals (106). Miami (OH) (4-7) has lost two of their last three games after their 27-24 upset loss to Eastern Michigan last Wednesday as a 1.5-point favorite. The Red Hawks have now failed to cover the point spread in three straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least three straight games. Miami (OH) now goes on the road where they are just 1-4 this season — but they are outgaining their opponents by +19.4 net YPG despite winning just once away from home. The Red Hawks have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a losing record at home. Miami (OH) has also covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range — including covering the point spread in four of their last five games with the Total in that range.

Ball State (2-9) enters this game coming off a 40-24 loss to Buffalo last Thursday — so they are playing on a very short five-day week. The Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. Ball State has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of the last 13 games are a double-digit loss to a conference rival. Ball State surrendered 565 yards in that loss to the Bulls — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight home games after allowing at least 475 yards in their last game. The Cardinals have also failed to cover the point spread in 36 of their last 53 games on their home field. Additionally, Ball State has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games in the month of November. Lastly, the Cardinals close out their season tonight having failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against conference opponents. Together, these team trends produce our specific 121-41 ATS combined angle for this situation. 10* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Miami (OH) Red Hawks (105) minus the points versus the Ball State Cardinals (106). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Bowling Green Falcons (103) plus the points versus the Eastern Michigan Eagles (104). Bowling Green (2-9) has lost two straight games with their 66-37 loss to Toledo last Wednesday as a 17-point underdog. The Falcons have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after a loss by at least three touchdowns to a conference opponent. Bowling Green has endured a -1 net turnover margin in each of their last two games — but they have then covered the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games after suffering a -1 net turnover margin in at least two straight games. The Falcons have exceeded expectations when on the road as they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games against teams with a losing record at home. And in their last 35 road games in the month of November, Bowling Green has covered the point spread in 24 of these games.

Eastern Michigan (4-7) has won two of their last three games with their 27-24 upset win at Miami (OH) last Wednesday as a 1.5-point underdog. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a close win by 3 points or less — and this includes failing to cover the point spread in six of their last nine games after a loss by a field goal or less against a conference rival. Eastern Michigan has also failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 39 of their last 52 games after a straight-up win. The Eagles averaged 6.49 Yards-Per-Play against the Red Hawks in that victory last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in their last game. Lastly, Eastern Michigan does not retain a strong home field advantage. Not only have the Eagles failed to cover the point spread in 39 of their last 58 games at home but they have also failed to cover the point spread in nine of their last twelve home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Together, these team trends produce our specific 182-68 ATS combined angle for this situation. 10* CFB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Bowling Green Falcons (103) plus the points versus the Eastern Michigan Eagles (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.