At 1:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Auburn Tigers (329) plus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (330) in the Citrus Bowl. THE SITUATION: Auburn (6-4) snapped a two-game losing streak on December 12th with a 24-10 win at Mississippi State as a 5.5-point favorite. Northwestern (6-2) has lost two of their last three games with their 22-10 loss to Ohio State as a 16.5-point underdog in the Big Ten Championship Game. This game will be played on a neutral field at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Northwestern’s effort and final score against the Buckeyes is skewed to all the surprise players out for Ohio State because of the COVID outbreak that impacted that program. They played — and lost by 12 points (which should have been at least by another, infuriating, touchdown with that game ending on the Wildcats’ 1-yard line). This is an overvalued team. Remember, they lost by nine points at a Michigan State team that finished 2-5 (and we were on Sparty that day!). Northwestern won all three of their games decided by one scoring possession. Despite their 6-2 record, they only outgained their opponents by +9.8 net YPG. They have a profile of a 4-4 Big Ten WEST team. Not East. West Division. And whatever weight we could put on their elite defense that was 5th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 15.5 PPG (total defense: 338.8 YPG, ranking 21st in the nation), they will be out starting defensive end Eku Leota and cornerback Greg Newsome who opted-out of this game to enter the transfer window. Teams that have players transferring in lieu of their New Year’s Day bowl game usually lack the roster depth to just “plug-and-play.” As it is, Northwestern has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. The Wildcats possess a below-average offense that ranked 99th in the nation by averaging just 348.6 YPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after not scoring at least 20 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not scoring at least 14 points in their last contest. Furthermore, this team has lost the turnover battle in three straight games which is a big red flag for this contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after losing the turnover battle in at least three straight games. Auburn has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss on the road. They also have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing two of their last three games. And in their last 6 games played with at least two weeks of rest and preparation, they have covered the point spread in 4 of these games. This team lost their head coach when Gus Malzahn was fired. Boise State’s Bryan Harsin will take over next season with the interim head coach being Kevin Steele. I expect the Tiger players to rally around each other and their coordinators to make a statement after their head coach was sacked (the ole “don’t blame us, blame the idiot who got sacked” principle). Steele is feisty and should have his team fired up. And this entire coaching staff is using this game to audition for their next job. Auburn is dealing with opt-outs with running back Tank Bigsby joining wide receiver Anthony Schwarz and cornerbacks Christian Tuitt and Roger McCreary in choosing to not play in this game. Two things here: (1) these absences have been built into the line and (2) I trust the roster depth of Auburn far more than I do of Northwestern. The Tigers got some good news when safety James Sherwood confirmed he would play today.

FINAL TAKE: Auburn has a big edge at quarterback with Bo Nix having more talent and having played in many more big games than former Indiana transfer Patrick Ramsey for Northwestern. The Wildcats are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games outside the Big Ten while the Tigers have covered the point spread 6 of their last 7 games against non-conference foes. 10* CFB Citrus Bowl ABC-TV Special with the Auburn Tigers (329) plus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (330). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bearcats (327) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (328) in the Peach Bowl. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (9-0) maintained their unbeaten season on December 19th by defeating Tulsa in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game by a 27-24 score as a 13.5-point favorite. Georgia (7-2) closed out their regular season with a 49-14 win at Missouri as a 14-point favorite on December 12th. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARCATS PLUS THE POINTS: We have seen this movie before: a Group of Five upstart feeling snubbed by the College Football Playoff Committee and the football punditry getting their opportunity to flex their muscles against a disappointed SEC team with questionable motivation experiencing a handful of opt-outs. Georgia will be without the following starters who have opted out for this game to prepare for the NFL draft: All-SEC right guard Ben Cleveland; linebacker (and heart of their defense) Monty Rice; cornerback Eric Stokes; running back James Cook; tight end Tre McKitty. The Bulldogs have also dealt with some tough injuries with starting defensive tackle Julian Rochester out with a knee and starting center Trey Hill out with his knee. Cornerback Richard LeCounte is questionable with a concussion. Those are a lot of starters not playing in this game — and it neutralizes the “SEC talent edge” against this Cincinnati team since the players Georgia will call on lack the big-time playing experience that helps make that conference the best in the country. I do appreciate that the Bulldogs’ offense is much better with former USC transfer J.T. Daniels under center. I considered this closely. Keep in mind that Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after scoring at least 35 points against an SEC rival in their last game. Daniels completed 16 of 27 passes for 299 yards with three touchdowns in the win against the Tigers — and he led a Bulldogs’ offense that racked up 615 yards. But Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. A powerful passing game is simply not the blueprint that has brought this program their best success under defensive head coach Kirby Smart. They beat South Carolina on the road in their previous game by a 45-16 score — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after scoring at least 42 points in two straight games. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning their last two games on the road by double-digits. The red flag with this team is their pass defense that has allowed 253.4 passing YPG which is 92nd in the nation — and that is before their opt-outs on that side of the football. Behind junior quarterback Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati averages 242.2 passing YPG which is 48th in the nation. He leads a balanced offense that scores 39.3 PPG and averages 467.2 total YPG which is  15th and 20th in the nation. He completed 19 of 29 passes for 269 yards with a touchdown with the win over Tulsa. He also is a dangerous threat with his legs as he ran for 609 yards with 12 touchdowns on a 7.3 Yards-Per-Carry average. The Bearcats have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 6 points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a narrow win by 3 points or less against a conference rival. Cincinnati has an outstanding defense as well which has held their opponents to 16.0 PPG along with 310.8 total YPG which ranks 6th and 8th in the nation. This stout defense has helped them cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: This game will be played in Atlanta — but I usually think the “home crowd edge” is overrated in bowl games even with stadiums at full capacity. Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games played on a neutral field with the total set in the 49.5 to 56 range. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the AAC. 10* CFB Peach Bowl ESPN Special with the Cincinnati Bearcats (327) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (328). Best of luck for us — Frank (PS: I will have a busy Friday card with at least one big 25* play in the CFB playoffs with likely the side and total in both games).

At 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Army Black Knights (212) plus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (211) in the Liberty Bowl. THE SITUATION: Army (9-2) has won three straight games after their 10-7 upset win against Air Force as a 1-point underdog on December 19th. West Virginia (5-4) has lost three of their last five games after their 42-6 loss at Iowa State as a 6-point underdog on December 5th. This game will be played on a neutral field at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK KNIGHTS PLUS THE POINTS: This bowl game presents the Mountaineers the opportunity to redeem themselves from an embarrassing loss — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after losing by at least four touchdowns on the road in their last game. West Virginia had covered the point spread in their previous three games before that bad loss to the Cyclones — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 44 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Now this team goes back on the road where they are 0-4 with an average losing margin of -15.2 PPG. The Mountaineers have scored only 14.8 PPG in those four road games. They are also scoring just 14.3 PPG in their last three games while averaging just 338.3 Yards-Per-Game during that span. West Virginia has a good statistical defense as they rank 13th in the nation by allowing just 126.2 rushing YPG. But they have surrendered 183 rushing YPG over their last three contests in getting exposed by Texas, TCU, and then Iowa State. Now this Mountaineers team faces a triple-option rushing attack for the first time since 2015. Furthermore, they will face this challenge without one of their best defensive players in linebacker Tony Fields, Jr. who opted out for this game to prepare for the NFL draft. Army should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 20 points in their last contest — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after a contest where neither team scored more than 17 points. Additionally, Army has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They will bring an outstanding defense into this game that ranks second in the nation by both holding their opponents to 14.0 PPG and by allowing just 271.1 total YPG. The Black Knights have the best statistical defense in the nation by limiting their opponents to just 149.9 passing YPG. And while those numbers were improved by facing four triple-option teams this season, they picked off 13 passes this season.

FINAL TAKE: Army is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games in December — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games played on a neutral field. Head coach Jeff Monken will have his team ready to play. West Virginia is 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games in December and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight bowl games. Furthermore, the Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games played on a neutral field when favored. 25* CFB Game of the Month with the Army Black Knights (212) plus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (211). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Ball State Cardinals (321) plus the points versus the San Jose State Spartans (322). THE SITUATION: Ball State (6-1) looks to build off their 38-28 upset win against Buffalo in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game as a 12.5-point underdog on December 18th. San Jose State (322) remained unbeaten this season after they upset Boise State in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game by a 34-20 score as a 6.5-point underdog. This game will be played on a neutral field at Arizona Stadium in Tuscon.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Ball State is a feisty veteran team that put it all together this season. Head coach Mike Neu got a two-year extension last year despite never posting a winning record in his first four years with the Cardinals program. Ball State finished 4-4 in the Mid-American Conference last season after losing three games in November by just eight combined points. Fourteen starters returned from that group — and after an opening loss to Miami (OH), this group rattled off six straight wins to get this opportunity to play in this bowl game. The Cardinals have covered the point spread 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Ball State has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning at least two straight games against conference rivals. And while the Cardinals allowed 499 yards in that game, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 405 yards in their last game. Ball State will not have running back Caleb Huntley who opted-out for this game but they have a capable backup in Tye Evans. Moving forward, the Cardinals have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. San Jose State may be due for a letdown after continuing their perfect season by upsetting Boise State. The Spartans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after pulling off an upset loss to a conference rival as an underdog getting at least 6 points. San Jose State has also failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after pulling off an upset win by at least two touchdowns. And while the Spartans held the Broncos to just 258 yards of offense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. This San Jose State team may be too one-dimensional as they ranked only 85th in the nation by averaging 141.6 rushing YPG. I am skeptical of the strength of the Mountain West Conference this season — and this is the Spartans’ first non-conference game this season. San Jose State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams outside the Mountain West Conference.

FINAL TAKE: Ball State has covered the point spread in 7 straight games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. The Cardinals have a gunslinger of a quarterback in Drew Plitt. Ball State should keep this game close against a San Jose team that is an unreliable favorite laying more than a touchdown. 10* CFB Arizona Bowl CBS-TV Special with the Ball State Cardinals (321) plus the points versus the San Jose State Spartans (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (317) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (318) in the Armed Forces Bowl. THE SITUATION: Mississippi State (3-7) snapped a three-game losing streak on December 19th with a 51-32 upset win at home against Missouri as a 1-point underdog. Tulsa (6-2) looks to bounce back from a 27-24 loss at Cincinnati as a 13.5-point underdog on December 19th. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOG PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): On paper, it may look easy to take a 6-2 team against the first-ever 3-7 team to play in a bowl game (I think … at least in my memory). Yet this Tulsa team was very fortunate to achieve six wins after winning three of their four games decided by one scoring possession. They pulled off a miracle comeback victory in double-overtime against Tulane. The analytics folks project a Golden Hurricane victory in the 7-point range — but the laptops do not have the benefit of a robust non-conference schedule to enrich its data. The anecdotal evidence so far in the bowl games does not suggest that the American Athletic Conference was strong this year. AAC teams have lost three of their four bowl games with a -34 net point differential in those games. The lone victor was Memphis who defeated Florida Atlantic representing Conference USA that is generally considered a step down in competition. The Golden Hurricane has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a loss by a field goal or less. And with senior quarterback Zach Smith completed only 13 of 30 passes against the Bearcats for just 166 yards with two interceptions in the loss, Tulsa has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after not passing for more than 170 yards in their last game. Tulsa has lost seven of their ten games — but these were all against SEC opponents. This is a team that upset LSU and played Georgia to just a 7-point loss in Athens. This is a roster of SEC talent which is generally a few notches above the quality of player in the American Athletic Conference. And the Bulldogs lost three of their four games decided by one scoring possession — this could have been a team with a 5-5 record with a couple of breaks. The offense improved under first-year head coach Mike Leach as he transitioned away from K.J. Costello to freshman Will Rogers at quarterback. Mississippi State scored 28.3 PPG while averaging 388.3 total YPG over their last three games which was +7.6 PPG and +41.1 YPG above their season averages. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a game at home where both teams scored at least 31 points. Mississippi State has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games are losing five or six of their last seven games. Furthermore, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 5 games in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range, Mississippi State has covered the point spread in 4 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games in December. For Tulsa, this is their first bowl game since 2016 in the second-season under head coach Philip Montgomery. The weather will also be a bit dicey with rain expected and high winds in Fort Worth. The better athletes that were faced tougher tests this season will be on the Mississippi State sidelines — and Leach will want to go out a winner to build momentum for next season. 10* CFB Armed Forces Bowl ESPN Special with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (317) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (318). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Oklahoma Sooners (316) minus the points versus the Florida Gators (315) in the Cotton Bowl. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma (8-2) won the Big 12 Conference Championship Game on December 19th with their 27-21 win over Iowa State as a 5-point favorite. Florida (8-3) lost to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game on December 19th by a 52-46 score as a 16.5-point underdog. This game will be played on a  neutral field at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SOONERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Gators have seen eight players opt-out of this game as of this writing on Wednesday afternoon. The losses are significant. On offense, quarterback Kyle Trask has lost his top four targets in tight end Kyle Pitts and wide receivers Trevon Grimes and Kadarius Toney. Jacob Copeland is already out tonight due to COVID. These four players account for 174 receptions for 2778 yards with 34 touchdowns. Th cupboard is not dry for Trask — former Penn State transfer Brandon Shorter along with some intriguing freshman will get their opportunity in this game. But these are untested players. None of Trask’s targets tonight have caught more than 13 passes on third down or more than 13 passes of at least 20 yards. The Florida defense will be without leading tackler in linebacker Ventral Miller and senior nose tackle Kyre Campbell. They depart a disappointing Gators’ defense that allowed 28.6 PPG and 404.7 total YPG with both marks ranking 86th in the nation. These losses are simply too much to overcome for a team that got upset against LSU before being overrun by the Crimson Tide. As it is, Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games are losing two in a row to SEC rivals. The Gators surrendered 89 points in their last two games after giving up 37 to the Tigers — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 31 points in two straight games. Florida has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a game where both teams scored at least 31 points. Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Sooners have won seven games in a row after losing two of their first three games. This group is much better now at the end of December as compared to where they were in October. Redshirt freshman Spencer Rattler has steadily improved this season — he has completed 68.0% of his passes for 2784 yards with 25 touchdown passes and seven interceptions. Oklahoma also got back running back Rhamondre Stevenson and defensive end Ronnie Perkins in Game Six after both served five-game suspensions. Stevenson rushed for 479 yards with six touchdowns on a  5.8 Yards-Per-Carry average. Perkins registered 5.5 sacks. Under defensive coordinator Alex Grinch, this Oklahoma defense has made significant improvements. They ranked 19th in the nation by allowing only 334.6 YPG and they held their opponents to just 21.9 PPG. They will be without cornerback Tre Brown but he is their only opt-out as of this writing. Under Grinch, the Sooner rank in the top-ten in the nation in Havoc Rate.

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma has lost three straight College Football Semifinals — they should be very motivated to get a win in a bowl game to end their season. The Sooners have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against SEC foes — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as a favorite. 10* CFB Cotton Bowl ESPN Special with the Oklahoma Sooners (316) minus the points versus the Florida Gators (315). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Wisconsin Badgers (312) minus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (311) in the Mayo Bowl. THE SITUATION: Wisconsin (3-3) evened their record at 3-3 on December 19th with their 20-17 win in overtime against Minnesota as a 10.5-point favorite. Wake Forest (4-4) looks to rebound from their 45-21 upset loss at Louisville as a 1-point favorite on December 12th. This game will be played on a neutral field at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BADGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Wisconsin enters this game having failed to cover the point spread in four straight games. While this has been disappointing to bettors, it does offer a good sign for this game. The Badgers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread in four straight games. Additionally, Wisconsin has covered the point spread in 35 of their last 49 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. The Badgers’ defense will be the best unit in this game — by far. Wisconsin leads the nation by only allowing 263.5 total YPG. They are also 6th in the country by holding their opponents to just 15.7 PPG. Defensive coordinator Jim Leonard is one of the best in the business. The Badgers rank 5th in the nation in stopping both the run and the pass as they are allowing just 93.7 rushing YPG and 169.8 passing YPG. Redshirt freshman Graham Mertz began the season with a strong effort against Illinois before struggling the rest of the season. But this remains the Badgers’ most highly-coveted recruit at the quarterback position so his ceiling is high. Wisconsin should be playing better on offense than their 22.3 PPG scoring average suggests. The Badgers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the Big Ten. They also have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 bowl games played in December. Wake Forest has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after suffering an upset loss. Rust is a significant concern for this team as they have played only once since November 14th. Their strength of schedule also raises red flags. One of their four victories was against an FCS school in Campbell. Their three remaining wins against Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Syracuse were versus teams that did not end the year with a record over .500 — and those three teams combined for an 11-21 mark. Facing the Demon Deacons’ defense may be just what the doctor ordered for Wisconsin. Wake Forest allows 456.9 total YPG along with 31.6 PPG which ranks 107th and 77th in the FBS. Mertz should find success in the passing game against this Demon Deacons defense that allows 265.9 passing YPG which is 107th in the nation. Wake Forest ranks 93rd in the country in opponent’s Success Rate against the pass and the run. And in their four games away from home, the Demon Deacons allowed 40.8 PPG along with 469.8 YPG. Wake Forest has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: There may be few head coaches that get more out of his talent that Dave Clawson — but he will be challenged in this game. Running back Kenneth Walker III and defensive end Carlos Basham, Jr. are both opting out of this game. 20* CFB Mayo Bowl ESPN Special with the Wisconsin Badgers (312) minus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Colorado Buffaloes (298) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (297) in the Alamo Bowl. THE SITUATION: Colorado (4-1) lost their first game of the season on December 12th with their 38-21 loss to Utah as a 3-point favorite. Texas (6-3) closed out their regular season on December 5th with a 69-31 win at Kansas State as a 7-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Alamodome in San Antonio.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUFFALOES PLUS THE POINTS: Colorado has been one of the surprises of the season with first-year head coach Karl Dorrell taking this job in late February just a few weeks before COVID would shut things down but still leading his team to four wins in five games. The Buffaloes are 16th in the nation by averaging 218.4 rushing YPG. This will be a highly-motivated football team playing in just their second bowl game in the last 13 seasons. Colorado likes to recruit in Texas which was an important source of players back in their Big 8 conference days — so they will want to take full advantage of the opportunity to play in San Antonio. The Buffaloes have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outside the Pac-12. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. Texas has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Longhorns have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. And while the Texas offense exploded for 608 yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 42 points in their last game. This team has been pretty fortunate with turnover luck. They rank 18th in the nation with a +0.78 net turnover margin per game mark. They forced three turnovers for a +3 net turnover mark against the Wildcats to help fuel that victory. But the Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games are forcing at least three turnovers in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 35 of their last 55 road games after enjoying a +3 or better net turnover margin in their last game. Texas did not turn the ball over again Kansas State — and they have not turned the ball over more than once in five straight games. Yet the Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after not turning the ball over in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after not committing more than one turnover in at least five straight games. Texas had turned the ball over seven times in a three-game stretch before this recent five-game run. The Longhorns run defense surrendered 274 yards to the Wildcats which is a dangerous sign when facing this Colorado team. They are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. And their pass defense ranks 115th in the nation by allowing 274.2 passing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Texas has also faced a handful of opt-outs in what has been a disappointing three-loss season. How motivated will they be to face a Pac-12 team that had three straight 5-7 seasons before this year? The Longhorns are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. 10* CFB Alamo Bowl ESPN Special with the Colorado Buffaloes (298) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (297). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (296) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (295) in the Cheez-It Bowl. THE SITUATION: Miami (8-2) gets to take the field again after being embarrassed in their last game on December 12th in a 62-26 upset loss to North Carolina as a 3-point favorite. Oklahoma State (7-3) comes off a 42-3 victory at Baylor on December 12th as a 6-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field at Camping World Stadium in Orlando.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Miami should be motivated to get the bad taste out of their mouths in this bowl game. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Their defense was simply a mockery against the Tar Heels as they surrendered 778 yards. The Hurricanes are dealing with some opt-outs with defensive linemen Jaelan Phillips and Quincy Roche not playing to prepare for the NFL draft. While those two players combined for 12.5 sacks and 30 tackles-for-loss, what Miami needs is a better effort from players who want to be on the field after the performance against North Carolina. The Hurricanes have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a game where at least 80 combined points were scored. The Tar Heels raced out to a 34-10 halftime lead in that game — but Miami has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after allowing at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. They also surrendered a remarkable 555 yards on the ground in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. The good news for the Hurricanes is that D’Eriq King will be playing in this game and returning for a final season next year. The quarterback has completed 64% of his passes for 2573 passing yards with 22 touchdowns while adding 526 rushing yards with another four touchdowns. Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win against a Big 12 rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread after winning two of their last three games. The Cowboys did not cover the point spread in their win over the Bears — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not forcing a turnover in their last game. Oklahoma State will have their star wide receiver, Tylan Wallace, playing in this game but their star running back, Chuba Hubbard, has opted out for this game to prepare for the NFL draft. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in their last 3 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma State has failed to cover the point spread in  4 of their last 5 games as a favorite — and Miami has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog. The Hurricanes have only won one bowl game since 2006 — and with big motivation to redeem themselves from their bad loss against the Tar Heels and a geographical edge for this game being played in their home state, they should win this game (but take the points for some insurance!). 10* CFB Cheez-It Bowl ESPN Special with the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (296) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (295). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Liberty Flames (283) plus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (284) in the Cure Bowl. THE SITUATION: Liberty (8-1) bounced-back from their 15-14 loss at North Carolina State to shut out UMass at home by a 45-0 score on November 27th. Coastal Carolina (11-0) remained undefeated this season with the 42-38 win at Troy on December 12th as a 12-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field at Camping World Stadium in Orlando.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FLAMES PLUS THE POINTS: Liberty should build off the momentum of their shutout win as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread as a favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a victory by at least 17 points. The Flames not only narrowly lost to the Wolfpack but they defeated Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. While the Chanticleers are getting all the Group of Five love for being undefeated, this Liberty team behind head coach Hugh Freeze wants more respect. They have averaged 513.7 total YPG over their last three games — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after averaging at least 475 YPG in their last three games. Coastal Carolina had failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a narrow win by 6 points or less. The Chanticleers have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a game on the road where both teams scored at least 31 points. Furthermore, Coastal Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when at least 80 combined points were scored. Quarterback Grayson McCall completed 24 of 29 passes for 338 yards in the win over Troy — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. And while Troy has averaged 484 Yards-Per-Game over their last three contests, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after averaging at least 450 YPG over a three game-stretch.

FINAL TAKE: Coastal Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. Liberty has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB Cure Bowl ESPN Special with the Liberty Flames (283) plus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (284). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UTSA Roadrunners (286) plus the points versus the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (285) in the First Responder Bowl. THE SITUATION: The University of Texas-San Antonio (7-4) has won three games in a row with their 49-17 win over North Texas as a 1.5-point favorite on November 28th. UL-Lafayette (9-1) has won six games in a row after their 24-21 upset win at Appalachian State on December 4th as a 3.5-point underdog. This game will be played on a neutral field at Gerald Ford Stadium in Dallas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROADRUNNERS PLUS THE POINTS: I worry about the motivation for the Ragin’ Cajuns who entered the season trying to prove they were the best football team not representing a Power Five conference. They avenged two straight Sun Belt Conference championship game losses to the Mountaineers in their most recent game — and they had the chance to avenge their lone loss this season to Coastal Carolina in the Sun Belt Conference championship game. Yet that opportunity was canceled because of COVID leaving these players with a lackluster game against a four-loss UTSA team where they are two-touchdown favorites. Meh. But the Ragin’ Cajuns have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning six games in a row. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by six points or less. And while UL-Lafayette has forced three turnovers in each of their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after forcing at least three turnovers in two straight games. UTSA generated 624 yards in their win over the Mean Green in their last contest — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Roadrunners have got their offense cranking during their three-game winning streak as they are averaging 41.3 PPG over that stretch while averaging 509.3 total YPG. They also have held their last three opponents to just 19.3 PPG. They did not commit a turnover against North Texas — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not committing a turnover in their last game. Furthermore, UTSA has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a bye week — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: UTSA has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. UL-Lafayette has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. 10* CFB First Responder Bowl ABC-TV Special with the UTSA Roadrunners (286) plus the points versus the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (285). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (287) plus the points versus the Georgia State Panthers (288) in the Lending Tree Bowl. THE SITUATION: Western Kentucky (5-6) has won three games in a row after their 37-19 win at Charlotte as a 3-point underdog on December 6th. Georgia State (5-4) has won three of their last four games after their 30-24 win against Georgia Southern as a 2.5-point favorite on November 28th. This game will be played at Ladd Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Alabama.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HILLTOPPERS PLUS THE POINTS: Western Kentucky should build off their momentum in this game. They have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 35 games after winning two games in a row — and they are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a straight-up win. Additionally, the Hilltoppers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games on the road after a point spread cover. Western Kentucky possesses an outstanding defense that is 17th in the nation in Success Rate against the pass and 7th in the FBS in opponent’s pass completion rate. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. They are also 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 58 games as an underdog, Western Kentucky has covered the point spread in 39 of these games. Georgia State victory the Eagles flew Over the 51 point total — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. And while the Panthers’ surrendered a whopping 296 rushing yards to Georgia Southern while being outgained on the ground by -251 yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after being outrushed by at least 150 yards in their last game. Additionally, Georgia State is just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December — and Western Kentucky is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games in December. 10* CFB Lending Tree Bowl ESPN Special with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (287) plus the points versus the Georgia State Panthers (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Marshall Thundering Herd (279) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (280) in the Camellia Bowl. THE SITUATION: Marshall (7-2) has suffered two straight upset losses after losing in the Conference USA championship game last Friday night to UAB by a 22-13 score as a 4.5-point favorite. Buffalo (5-1) was also upset last Friday in the Mid-American Conference championship game by a 38-28 as a 12.5-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Cramton Bowl in Birmingham, Alabama.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDERING HERD PLUS THE POINTS: Marshall had won their first seven games this season before getting upset at home to Rice by a 20-0 score before the Conference USA championship game. The Thundering Herd should get their offense going again after two subpar games as they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after not scoring more than 17 points in two straight games. Marshall does have running back Brenden Knox opting out of this game to prepare for the NFL draft but they still have Sheldon Evans who ran for 248 yards with four touchdowns splitting time with Knox. The Thundering Herd still averaged 30.6 PPG this season. Redshirt freshman Grant Wells should play better in this bowl game after struggling in these last two contests. Marshall has only covered the point spread once in their last five games — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Thundering Herd have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games as an underdog. They also have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a neutral field. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 36 of their last 55 road games after playing at least three straight games against conference rivals. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games on the road against teams with a winning record. The Bulls’ live off running the football — they lead the nation by averaging 309.5 rushing YPG. They expect to have Jaret Patterson for this game despite an injured leg that limited him to only 47 yards on 18 carries last week. He may not be at 100% — and he may only see limited action this afternoon. Marshall is outstanding in stopping the run — they are second in the nation by allowing only 88.9 rushing YPG. They hold opposing rushers to just 2.7 Yards-Per-Carry — and Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams who do not allow their opponents to rush for more than 2.75 YPC. The Bulls have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outside the Mid-American Conference.

FINAL TAKE: Marshall has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 bowl games. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games played on a neutral field. 10* CFB Camellia Bowl ESPN Special with the Marshall Thundering Herd (279) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (277) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (276) in the New Mexico Bowl. THE SITUATION: Hawai’i (4-4) has won two of their last three games with their 38-12 win over UNLV as an 18.5-point favorite on December 12th. Houston (3-4) has lost three of their last four games with their 30-27 upset loss at Memphis as a 7-point favorite on December 12th. The New Mexico Bowl was moved to a neutral field at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas, given COVID restrictions in Albuquerque.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAINBOW WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: These are far from ideal circumstances for the Cougars. Houston has had eight games either canceled, postponed, or moved due to COVID this fall. This will be just their second game since November 14th so rust is a significant concern. As it is, this is a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after losing two of their last three games. Head coach Dana Holgorsen is also experiencing a handful of opt-outs from some of his best players. Two-time All-American Athletic Conference wide receiver Marquez Stevenson will bypass this game to focus on the Senior Bowl. Defensive end Payton Turner with his team-leading 5.0 sacks along with linebacker Grant Stuard who led the conference with 8.7 tackles per game will not play in this game to prepare for the NFL draft. Houston holds a geographical advantage with this game being played about 265 miles from campus. But the Cougars were outscored by -5.0 PPG while outgained by -20.0 net YPG when playing away from home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a bye week. And after their upset loss to the Tigers, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in December. Hawai’i had their offense cranking against the Rebels as they generated 530 yards in that victory — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. And while Houston is 31st in the FBS by averaging 268.1 passing YPG, the Rainbow Warriors are 20th in the nation by limiting their opponents to only 190.6 passing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Hawai’i has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games played on a neutral field — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when playing a team from the American Athletic Conference. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams from the Mountain West Conference — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 bowl games. With this being the Rainbow Warriors’ first bowl game on the mainland since 2008 and with them being coached by a veteran in Todd Graham in his first year with the program, expect a spirited effort from the underdogs. 10* CFB New Mexico Bowl ESPN Special with the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (277) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Florida Atlantic Owls (275) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (276) in the Montgomery Bowl. THE SITUATION: Florida Atlantic (5-3) aw their four-game winning streak snapped on December 10th with a 45-31 upset loss at home to Southern Mississippi as a 9.5-point favorite. Memphis (7-3) has won four of their last five games with their 30-27 upset win against Houston as a 7-point underdog on December 12th. This game is being played at Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama.

REASONS TO TAKE THE OWLS PLUS THE POINTS: FAU has suffered two straight upset losses with their setback to the Golden Eagles preceded by a 20-9 upset loss at Georgia Southern as a 2.5-point favorite. These disappointments should ensure that head coach Willie Fritz will have his team ready to play in this bowl game. After his unceremonious departure from Florida State last season, Fritz cannot afford to let up in the slightest. As it is, Florida Atlantic has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after getting upset twice in a row. They also have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after losing two games in a row by double-digits. And in their last 9 games after a point spread loss, the Owls have played 7 of covered the point spread in 7 of these games. FAU should be able to slow down the Tigers’ offensive attack. With former South Florida head coach Jim Leavitt as his defensive coordinator, the Owls have been outstanding on defense for most of the season. They rank 9th in the nation by allowing only 16.5 PPG — and they rank 15th in the FBS by giving up just 326.4 total YPG. This strong defensive play has helped them cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. Memphis is 26th in the nation with a total offense that averages 451.5 YPG. But the Tigers have scored only 20.3 PPG in their last three contests while averaging just 296.7 total YPG. They managed just 300 total yards in their upset victory over Houston. Memphis has then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset win over an American Athletic Conference opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a narrow win by three points or less at home. Memphis goes back on the road for this bowl game where they have lost three of their four games this season while scoring just 17.0 PPG and averaging -80 YPG below their season average. Opt-outs have taken away some of the best skill position talents from the offense of Ryan Silverfield’s team in his first year as the head coach of the program. Running back Kenneth Gainwell along with wide receivers Damonte Coxie and John Williams are no longer with the team despite starting the year on the roster. The Tigers were outgained by the Cougars in their last game by -109 net yards but eked out that game with the help of an 85-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown. The Memphis defense is sketchy as they are allowing 448.7 YPG which is 102nd in the nation. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games in December including five of their last six games. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight bowl games. FAU has won and covered the point spread in 4 straight bowl games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games played on a neutral field. 25* CFB Group of Five Bowl Game of the Year with the Florida Atlantic Owls (275) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (274) plus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (273) in the New Orleans Bowl. THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (5-4) looks to rebound from a 52-10 loss at TCU as a 21-point underdog to close out their regular season on December 12th. Georgia Southern (7-5) has lost three of their last four games with their 34-26 loss at home to Appalachian State as an 8.5-point underdog on December 12th. This game will be played at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Georgia Southern has serious injuries at quarterback. Their four-year starter, Shai Werts, is doubtful because of a shoulder injury that has kept him out of the last two games. I have waited on this game for updates on Werts status — as of 1:30 PM ET, I am seeing speculation that he is listed as number one on the depth chart but that could be a symbolic gesture. Even if he plays, he may not be at 100% and head coach Chad Lunsford may limit his time on the field. This is far from ideal for the Eagles even if he plays. The offense would be down to third-stringer Miller Mosley if Werts cannot go since second-stringer Justin Tomlin is out with an ankle. Werts has been the engine behind this offense for four years. Mosley completed only 5 of 14 passes in relief against the Mountaineer for 122 yards with a touchdown but two interceptions. He added 49 rushing yards but on 13 carries — he lacks the mobility of Werts and Tomlin. Georgia Southern managed only 349 yards against Appalachian State without Werts. The Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss at home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing three of their last four games. Furthermore, Georgia Southern has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. And while the Eagles have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in at least four or five of their last six contests. Louisiana Tech will benefit from the time to prepare for the Georgia Southern shotgun/pistol spread offense. They surrendered 333 rushing yards to the Horned Frogs in their last game but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 333 rushing yards in their last contest. Three turnovers played a large role in that blowout loss to TCU — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after turning the ball over at least three times in their last game. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a point spread loss. Louisiana Tech has only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. And while the Bulldogs have played three straight games Over the Total, they have then covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 road games after playing at least two straight Overs. Head coach Skip Holtz will not have senior quarterback Luke Anthony available for this game given his leg injury but that just means the keys to the offense go to sophomore Aaron Allen who has split time under center this season. Allen has completed 64.1% of his passes for 561 yards with four touchdown passes but five interceptions. The game plan should be tailored to better take advantage of Allen’s dual-threat strengths. Frankly, Holtz may also give snaps to one of the two freshman quarterbacks on the roster. No matter what, we can be confident that Holtz will be taking this game very seriously. Louisiana Tech has won six straight bowl games which is the longest streak in the nation. His teams have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 bowl games and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing on a neutral field. Holtz’s teams have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games playing off a bye week.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia Southern won five of their seven games decided by one-scorning possession — and they were outscored by -4.0 PPG and outgained by -45.2 net YPG when playing away from home. Expect a close game. 10* CFB New Orleans Bowl ESPN Special with the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (274) plus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (273). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Central Florida Knights (271) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (272) in the Boca Raton Bowl. THE SITUATION: Central Florida (6-3) enters this bowl game coming off a 58-46 win at South Florida on November 27th as a 25-point favorite. BYU (10-1) rebounded from their 22-17 loss at Coastal Carolina to defeat San Diego State by a 28-14 score on December 12th as a 16.5-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field at FAU Stadium in Boca Raton, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNIGHTS PLUS THE POINTS: Central Florida has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. And while UCF raced out to a 31-14 halftime lead against the Bulls, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after leading by at least 17 points in the first half of their last game. The Knights saw 17 players opt-out from the team by October either from COVID concerns or legal problems — but head coach Josh Heupel has been able to roll with it with the deep roster he has assembled. Wide receiver Marlon Williams opted-out for this game to prepare for the NFL — but this group looks pretty much intact from the one that lost to Cincinnati by just three points. Heupel is 41-6 in his three seasons as the head coach of this program. It is rare that his team is not in a position to win in the fourth quarter. The Regression Gods were on his side early in his career here as the Knights enjoyed a five-game winning streak in games decided by one scoring possession during their 25-game unbeaten streak in 2017-18. The fickle Regression Gods were bound to make their presence known — and UCF lost all three of their games last year by seven combined points. These Gods were not done with the Knights this season as their three losses to Tulsa, Memphis, and Cincinnati were by just 12 combined points. UCF is now 1-7 in their last eight games decided by one scoring possession under Heupel. So don’t bet the money-line (PS: don’t do that anyway) — grab the points and be happy with cashing a winning ticket. The Knights have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog. They also have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 6 games against teams outside the American Athletic Conference, they have covered the point spread in 5 of these games. Led by sophomore quarterback Dillon Gabriel, UCF is second in the nation by averaging 585.6 total Yards-Per-Game — and they are fifth in the nation with a 44.3 PPG scoring average. Gabriel has seven games where he has passed for at least 300 yards — and he topped 400 passing yards in four of those games. BYU has thrived in being opportunistic on defense — they are 18th in the nation with a +0.82 net turnover margin. But the Knights have not turned the ball over more than once in six straight games. The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning at least four or five of their last six games. And while BYU has not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not covering the point spread in their last two games. Additionally, the Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. And in their last 5 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game, BYU is just 1-3-1 ATS. Junior QB Zach Wilson did pass for 310 yards with three touchdowns against the Aztecs — but they are just 3-9-2 ATS in their last 14 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Moving forward, the Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games with the total set at 70 or higher — and they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. BYU has failed to cover the point spread 7 of their last 10 games played on a neutral field.

FINAL TAKE: The laptops love this BYU team — but those analytics are relying on limited data from non-conference games that serves to vet out relative conference strength (already the college basketball quantitative projections are much better given the much larger sample size even by December). Central Florida has a geographical edge with a short trip from Orlando to Boca Raton. The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 bowl games. 10* CFB Boca Raton Bowl ESPN Special with the Central Florida Knights (271) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Nevada Wolf Pack (270) plus the points versus the Tulane Green Wave (269) in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. THE SITUATION: Nevada (6-2) has lost two of their last three games with their 30-20 upset loss against San Jose State (in the Spartans’ temporary home in La Vegas) as a 2.5-point favorite on December 11th. Tulane (6-5) has won four of their last five games after their 35-21 win over Memphis as a 3.5-point favorite on December 5th. This game is played on Boise State’s neutral blue field in Idaho.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLF PACK PLUS THE POINTS: Head coach Jay Norvell should have his team ready to play in this game as they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after suffering an upset loss against a conference rival — and this includes them covering the point spread in these last three situations. Nevada has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against a loss to a Mountain West foe. Additionally, the Wolf Pack is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Nevada is led by sophomore quarterback Carson Strong who is completing 69.4% of his passes for 2587 yards. The Wolf Pack did surrender 506 yards against the Spartans in their last game — but they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Norvell’s teams usually play well in situations like this. Nevada has covered the point spread in 32 of their last 49 games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. They are also 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games in December. Additionally, the Wolf Pack have covered the point spread in 5 straight games as an underdog — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games when they are an underdog on a neutral field. Tulane has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win at home. The Green Wave have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win against an American Athletic Conference opponent. Head coach Willie Fritz had to deal with instability in his coaching staff on both sides of the ball in preparation for this game. Offensive coordinator Will Hall left the program to take the head coaching gig at Southern Miss. Fritz dismissed defensive coordinator Jeff Curtis after the Memphis game. Tulane is also dealing with attrition on their defensive line with defensive tackles De’Andre Williams and Jeffery Johnson out for this game with injuries while Cameron Sample is questionable. The Green Wave registered 36 sacks this season but 10 of them were from another five came from Sample — and Williams is the straw that stirs the drink in the middle. Despite their winning record, Tulane was outgained by -23.1 net YPG. And in their six games away from Orleans on the road, the Green Wave were outgained by -92.5 net YPG. The Tulane pass rush has been their only salvation from a porous pass defense that ranks 115th in the nation by allowing 279.5 passing YPG. And this deficiency plays right into the hands of Nevada who rank 9th in the nation by averaging 325.1 passing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Nevada lost a close game to Ohio in last year’s Famous Idaho Potato Bowl by a 30-21 score — so not only is this team familiar with the blue field in Boise but they have the opportunity to redeem themselves from that loss. The Wolf Pack are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 bowl games. Tulane has won their last two bowl games under Fritz so the urgency of this opportunity may not be as great. 10* CFB Famous Idaho Potato Bowl ESPN Special with the Nevada Wolf Pack (270) plus the points versus the Tulane Green Wave (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the North Texas Mean Green (267) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (268). THE SITUATION: North Texas (4-5) became bowl eligible in this unusual COVID-ridden season with their 45-43 win at UTEP in their last regular-season game on December 11th as a 10-point favorite. Appalachian State (8-3) enters this game coming off a 34-26 win over Georgia Southern as an 8.5-point favorite on December 12th. The inaugural Myrtle Beach Bowl will be played at the home of Coastal Carolina at Brooks Stadium in Conway, South Carolina.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MEAN GREEN PLUS THE POINTS: Appalachian State will likely be flat in this less than prestigious bowl game in this bizarre season. As it is, the Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. And while Appalachian State has only covered the point spread once in their last eight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not covering the point spread in at least three of their last four games. Additionally, the Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the Sun Belt Conference. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 6 games as a favorite, Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread 5 times. North Texas has not covered the point spread in three straight games as well as six of their last eight contests — but they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. And while the Mean Green have allowed their last three opponents to score at least 42 points, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 42 points in three straight games. North Texas should be able to score points — they are averaging 35.1 PPG along with 515.0 total YPG this season. Head coach Seth Littrell has been rotating quarterbacks this season between sophomores Austin Aune and Jason Bean — but with Aune declared out for this game, Bean should get the majority of snaps and a game-plan tailored to his skill set. This will be Bean’s sixth straight start — he is completing only 52.4% of his passes but he averages 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt with 12 touchdowns and only four interceptions. Bean is the more mobile of the two QBs as well — he has rushed for 336 yards this season. He will be without his best weapon in wide receiver Jaelon Darden who leads the nation with 19 touchdowns but the Mean Green have other options at the position that will get an opportunity. Appalachian State is the type of team that North Texas has success against. The Mountaineers average 23.5 first downs per game while being on offense for 32:40 minutes per game. The Mean Green has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against teams who average at least 32 minutes per game on offense while tallying at least 21 first downs per game.

FINAL TAKE: Appalachian State has won five straight bowl games but this will be the first one with veteran offensive line coach Shawn Clark will be the head coach in his first year with the program. North Texas has played in a bowl game in four of the last five seasons — but they missed out last year after losing to Utah State in the New Mexico Bowl in 2018. Littrell is on the hot seat in Denton in his fifth year with the program — he needs to end the year on a good note. I am not predicting an upset here — but I am very confident that this North Texas team is taking this game very seriously. Getting 21 or so points is too many to pass up. 10* CFB Myrtle Beach Bowl ESPN Special with the North Texas Mean Green (267) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (268). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida Gators (240) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (239). THE SITUATION: Florida (8-2) looks to rebound from their 37-34 upset loss at home to LSU last Saturday as a 24-point underdog. Alabama (10-0) completed their undefeated regular season last week with their 52-3 win at Arkansas as a 28-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GATORS PLUS THE POINTS: Look for this Florida team to play one of their best games of the season after getting embarrassed last week in a game that ruined their college football playoff aspirations. The Tigers were extremely fortunate to win that when considering that they were outlined by -291 net yards. The win probability metrics given the underlying stats are quite low for LSU after that game — and they needed that personal foul penalty resulting from a thrown shoe after a Florida defensive stop to keep their winning drive alive that culminated in a 57-yard field goal. The Gators have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after suffering an upset loss at home as a double-digit favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after an upset loss to an SEC rival as a double-digit favorite. Florida has also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games when playing on the road after a loss by a touchdown or less to a conference opponent. The Gators were without tight end Kyle Pitts in that game but he is expected to play and is the most dangerous target in their passing game. I am not sure that Florida can slow down the Alabama offense — although they have held their last three opponents to only 22.0 PPG and 324.3 total YPG. But Florida should be able to keep this game competitive due to their explosive offense behind quarterback Kyle Trask. The Gators racked up a whopping 609 yards last week against LSU. They are scoring 41.2 PPG while averaging 513.5 total YPG. Florida has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games in expected higher scoring games with the Total set at 63 or higher. Trask is completing 70.2% of his passes for 3717 yards with 40 touchdown passes and only five interceptions. Alabama is playing their third straight game away from home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning at least eight of their last ten games. And while the Crimson Tide have covered the point spread in seven straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. The Alabama offense appears unstoppable — but the Razorbacks did a decent job of holding them to 433 yards last week which is over 100 yards below their season average. One of their touchdowns came from an 84-yard punt return for a touchdown. And while the Tide has scored at least 42 points in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 42 points in at least four games in a row. Alabama forced four Arkansas turnovers last week for a +3 net turnover margin — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 45 games after forcing at least four turnovers in their last game and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after enjoying a +3 or better net turnover margin in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: The Crimson Tide have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games when playing on a neutral field as a favorite in the 14.5 to 17 point range. Too many points to pass up for a team that will likely put up a big number on the scoreboard tonight. 25* CFB CBS-TV Game of the Year with the Florida Gators (240) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (239). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (229) minus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (230). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (5-0) takes the field again after remaining unbeaten this season two weeks ago with their 52-12 victory against Michigan State as a 21.5-point favorite. Northwestern (6-1) comes off a 28-10 win over Illinois as a 13.5-point favorite last Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral field at Lucas Oil Field in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: I am not a believer in the Wildcats. Their 6-1 start is impressive — but I suspect this is a team we would have made money on when fading them in their late Big Ten conference games after a start like this. Instead, with the COVID-shortened season, they show up in the Big Ten Conference Championship Game. Maybe head coach Pat Fitzgerald’s team makes it to this game under normal circumstances — but that is a testament to the weakness of the Big Ten West where Northwestern compiled their impressive stats in this shortened season. The only team that the Wildcats have played from the Big Ten East was a bad Michigan State team — and somehow Sparty scored 29 points against this supposed elite defense! Nebraska tallied 442 total yards against this Wildcats’ defense as well. I suspect Ohio State is going to expose this unit. And Northwestern simply does not have the talent on offense to reach 30 points the way Indiana did against the Buckeyes to keep things relatively close. Their quarterback Patrick Ramsey transferred away from the Hoosiers because he was losing his job to Michael Penix, Jr. who is a dynamic dual-threat. Ramsey is a classic drop-back passer who lacks mobility. And while he has passed for 1218 yards, he is averaging only 5.8 Yards-Per-Attempt with only nine touchdown passes and six interceptions in his seven starts. Northwestern scored only 22.7 PPG in their last three contests — and they average just 283.3 total YPG in their three games away from Evanston. Those are all ominous numbers for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a point spread to cover as a double-digit favorite. They are also 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Wildcats did not force a turnover last week against the Illini — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not forcing a turnover in their last game. And while they rushed for 411 yards last week while tapping into their younger running backs on their depth chart like freshman Cam Porter, they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Ohio State’s defense has another level of athlete than what Illinois had to offer. The Buckeyes’ have been adjusting to life without Chase Young — but they still rank second in the nation in Expected Points Allowed per pass attempt. They are also holding opposing rushers to just 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. Ohio State has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game after holding Sparty to just 261 yards. They also have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Led by quarterback Justin Fields, the Buckeyes are an offensive juggernaut who is scoring 46.6 PPG while averaging 532.4 total YPG. Additionally, Ohio State has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: The Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games played on a neutral field. Ohio State usually saves a few tricks for their rivalry game with Michigan that they still have yet to unveil since that game was canceled. And the Buckeyes need style points to ensure they are one of the four teams in the playoff. Expect a blowout where head coach Ryan Day never has his team take their foot off the proverbial gas pedal. 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Year with the Ohio State Buckeyes (229) minus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (230). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oklahoma Sooners (231) minus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (232). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma (7-2) has won six straight games after their 27-14 win over Baylor two weeks ago on December 5th as a 23-point favorite. Iowa State (8-2) has won five straight games with their 42-6 win against West Virginia as a 6-point favorite two weeks ago. This game will be played on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SOONERS MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma lost two of their first three games this season — including a 37-30 setback to the Cyclones on October 3rd as a 7.5-point favorite. There are three reasons why I am willing to give the Sooners a pass for that slow start. First, COVID has been a challenge for everyone — and it has had a disproportionate effect on many football programs. I think it particularly hit many outstanding football coaches who rely on their abilities to coach up talent — and being robbed of teaching time played a toll. Second, I think it is underappreciated how much some coaches nurture improvement from their players as the season goes on. If (and when) the College Football Playoff expands beyond four teams to allow for teams with more than one loss, we will likely witness more teams make deep postseason runs benefited from the improvement that comes from great coaching. We see this all the time in college basketball. Third, this Sooners team added two key players in the sixth game of the season in running back Rhamondre Stevenson and defensive end Ronnie Perkins who were both suspended for the first three games. Perkins has tallied four sacks in four games with a pressure rate per pass rush of 16% (for comparison's sake, Chase Young had an 18% clip last year with Ohio State). Stevenson has rushed for 557 yards in four games with six touchdowns and a 6.8 Yards-Per-Carry average. These two players are difference-makers who did not play in the first meeting between these two teams. Oklahoma should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a double-digit win against a conference opponent. Iowa State is just 5-11-2 ATS in their last 18 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning at least four games in a row. Furthermore, the Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while Iowa State outgained the Mountaineers by a 483 to 264 yardage margin, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after gaining at least 475 yards in their last game — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing no more than 275 yards in their last game. The Cyclones hosted the first encounter between these two teams in Ames — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games played on a neutral field and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on a neutral field as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Iowa State lost to the Oklahoma State team that got easily defeated against this Sooners team a month later by a 41-13 score in mid-November. Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the second half of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as a favorite. 10* CFB Oklahoma-Iowa State ABC-TV Special with the Oklahoma Sooners (231) minus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (232). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (251) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (252) in the Pac-12 Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Oregon (3-2) has lost two straight games entering this game after their 21-17 upset loss at California as a 9-point favorite on December 5th. USC (5-0) remained unbeaten last Saturday with their 43-38 win at UCLA as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS PLUS THE POINTS: Oregon was placed into this game on Monday when the COVID outbreak in the Washington program forced them to pull out of that game. The Ducks thought they were going to be given the chance to earn the opportunity to play in this game with a showdown with the Huskies their scheduled game last week — but that game was canceled given the COVID issues in the Washington program. That game offered Oregon the chance to redeem themselves from suffering two straight upset losses at Oregon State and then at California two weeks ago. While the circumstances are less than ideal, this game does offer the Ducks the opportunity to salvage their season. Expectations were high for this group with 12 starters back from the team that finished 12-2 after winning both the Pac-12 Championship Game and then the Rose Bowl with a victory against Wisconsin. Oregon has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a bye week. And while the Ducks have not covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least three straight games. Oregon outgained the Golden Bears in their last game by +97 net yards but red zone problems and a -2 net turnover margin held the Ducks back. Regression was expected for this team in the turnover department this season after they enjoyed a +16 net turnover margin last year. However, the Regression Gods may have overcorrected with Oregon ranking 123rd in the nation with a -1.40 net turnover margin per game. The Ducks are averaging 34.2 PPG which is 27th in the FBS — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game. Oregon has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. They also have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 road games with the total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. Furthermore, the Ducks have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games on the road as an underdog of 3 points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 48 of their last 72 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. USC was very fortunate to escape last week’s game with a victory as they were outgained by UCLA by -105 net yards. Over their last three games, the Trojans are being beaten in the yardage battle by -19.6 net YPG. The Bruins exposed a soft USC defense last week by amassing 549 total yards. The Trojans generated 364 of those yards allowed were in the air — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. USC has also failed to cover the point spread in their last 3 games after allowing at least 42 points in their last contest. Sophomore Kedon Slovis did complete 30 of 47 passes for 344 yards last week but the Trojans are just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And in their last 8 games in December, USC has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these games. The Trojans have been benefited from a +7 net turnover margin this season — so the Regression Gods can kill two birds with one stone tonight with some bounces that go the Ducks' way.

FINAL TAKE: Oregon will have plenty of confidence in this game as they crushed USC last season by a 56-24 score on the Trojans’ home field with a packed stadium. The Ducks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 meetings with USC. Don’t be surprised if they pull the upset — but (always!) take the insurance with the points. 25* CFB Fox-TV Game of the Year with the Oregon Ducks (251) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Ball State Cardinals (197) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (198) in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Ball State (5-1) has won five games in a row with their 30-27 upset win over Western Michigan last Saturday as a 2.5-point underdog. Buffalo (5-0) remained unbeaten this season last week with their 56-7 win over Akron as a 33-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field at Ford Field in Detroit.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Ball State will have plenty of momentum and confidence entering this game. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a win by 3 points or less. Additionally, Ball State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. This is a team that returned 14 starters from a group that finished 4-4 in MAC play last year despite outgaining their opponents by +31 net YPG. Six of their returning players were all-conference. They have a dynamic quarterback back in senior Drew Plitt who leads a passing attack that is 23rd in the nation Passing Success Rate and 24th in the nation with an 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt average. He leads an offense that scores 34.3 PPG while averaging 481.3 YPG in their three road games. The Cardinals did give up 491 yards last week but they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Furthermore, Ball State has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games as an underdog. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning their last game by at least 28 points. And while the Bulls raced out to a 35-0 halftime lead last week against the Zips, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after owning a halftime lead of at least 24 points in their last game. Buffalo dominated Akron with a +302 net yardage edge — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +175 net yards. The Bulls’ numbers are a bit skewed by playing only five games with two of them against the woeful Akron and Bowling Green teams. They have played only one game against a team in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s top 100 in SP+ offense — and that Kent State team scored 41 points against them. The Buffalo defense ranks 75th in the nation in Expected Points Allowed per pass attempt and 83rd in the nation in Explosive Plays allowed. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when playing on a neutral field.

FINAL TAKE: The underdog has covered the point spread in 5 straight games between these two teams. 10* CFB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Ball State Cardinals (197) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (198). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UAB Blazers (195) plus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (196) in the Conference USA Championship Game. THE SITUATION: UAB (5-3) snapped their two-game losing streak last Saturday with their 21-16 win over Rice as a 7-point favorite. Marshall (7-1) was embarrassed the previous week against that same Owls team on December 5th in a 20-0 upset loss as a 24.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLAZERS PLUS THE POINTS: UAB has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road after a win against a conference rival. And while the Blazers have not covered the point spread in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after not covering the point spread in three straight games. They are also 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games after a point spread loss. And while that game finished Under the 42 point total, UAB has then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. This team has played only once since Halloween — but this time off afforded them to get healthy again. Junior quarterback Tyler Johnston returned last week in that game against the Owls. The Blazers did lose senior wide receiver Austin Watkins who decided to opt-out the rest of the season. But UAB has depth at wide receiver and two pass-receiving tight ends to pick up the slack. This is a veteran team that has played in the Conference USA Championship Game in two straight seasons — and eighteen starters returned in the fall from the group that lost to Florida Atlantic last year. This team was just a couple of good bounces away from being 7-1 entering this game. They also have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games in expected low-scoring games with the total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. What happened to Marshall two weeks ago in their shocking shutout loss? For starters, their redshirt freshman quarterback, Grant Wells, threw five interceptions. This team has also been hit with injuries, particularly on their offensive line. This team may have peaked too soon for 11th-year head coach Doc Holliday. The Thundering Herd have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game. And while that game flew Under the 42 point total, Marshall has then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The Thundering Herd do get to host this game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games at home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games at home with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Coming off a shutout loss, a big Marshall bounce-back is certainly possible. This is why I look closely at team trends in an attempt to ascertain if there is a team personality or culture under a head coach that helps assess how a group will respond to specific circumstances. We have plenty of data to assess Holiday’s teams at Marshall. The Thundering Herd have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games at home when favored. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB UAB-Marshall CBS Sports Network Special with the UAB Blazers (195) plus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (196). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (438) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (437). THE SITUATION: UCLA (3-2)looks to build off their 25-18 upset win at Arizona State last Saturday as a 3-point underdog. USC (4-0) remained undefeated last Sunday with their 38-13 win at home against Washington State as an 11-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS PLUS THE POINTS: This appears to be a much improved team in Chip Kelly’s third year with the program at UCLA. They are outscoring their opponents by +7.8 Points-Per-Game — and they are outgaining these opponents by +57.3 net Yards-Per-Game. The Bruins’ two losses to Colorado and Oregon were by just nine combined points. UCLA has the opportunity to play the role of spoiler against their crosstown rivals — and they are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up win while also 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread victory. They return home where are 2-0 this season with an average winning margin of +20.5 net PPG. The Bruins are averaging 228 rushing YPG which is 16th best in the nation. They have also not allowed more than 18 points in three of their last four games. A good running game along with strong defense is a good recipe to pull the upset. UCLA is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home as an underdog. USC is just 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. The Trojans have looked good in their last two games against Washington State and Washington — but they were shaky in their first two games. They needed to score two touchdowns in the final three minutes to get past Arizona State in their opening game — and then they only beat a terrible Arizona team by four points. The Wildcats have lost twelve straight games after their humiliating loss to the Sun Devils last night and the only time they stayed within single digits was against this Trojans team. USC has benefited from a +1.5 net turnover margin per game which is the second-best mark in the nation. The Trojans could not muster any semblances of a rushing attack last week against Washington State as they managed only five rushing yards. Quarterback Kedon Slovis did complete 25 of 32 passes for 287 yards with five touchdown passes last week but USC is just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Trojans are just 16-35-2 ATS in their last 53 games on the road — and they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games when favored on the road. Head coach Clay Helton’s team has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: The home team has fared well recently in this series as the home team has covered the point spread in 12 of the last 17 meetings between these two teams. USC has not covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in the Rose Bowl playing at UCLA. 25* CFB Pac-12 Game of the Year with the UCLA Bruins (438) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (437). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (133) plus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (134). THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (5-3) has won two games in a row with their 42-31 win at North Texas back on December 3rd as a 1-point favorite. TCU (5-4) comes off a 29-22 upset win against Oklahoma State last Saturday as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: That was an impressive victory for Louisiana Tech last week as they had not played since Halloween given COVID issues. The Bulldogs held a Mean Green offense that averages 518.0 Yards-Per-Game to just 386 total yards. Head coach Skip Holtz is underrated — and his teams tend to improve as the season moves forward. Louisiana Tech has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win. His teams have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with eighth days of rest. Now this team stays on the road where they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 38 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games with the total set in the 49.5 to 52 point range. Furthermore, Louisiana Tech has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside Conference USA — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games in December. TCU may be due for an emotional letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home over a Big 12 rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a point spread win. TCU turned the ball over five times in the win but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after turning the ball over at least three times in their last game. The Horned Frogs stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games. And getting fired up to play a Group of Five teams may be an issue as they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams from Conference USA.

FINAL TAKE: TCU has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 26 home games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when laying 10.5 to 21 points. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (133) plus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (134). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (257) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Colorado Buffaloes (258). THE SITUATION: Utah (1-2) won their first game of the season last Saturday with their 30-24 win over Oregon State as a 14-point favorite. Colorado (4-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 24-13 win at Arizona as a 9.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Utah has been a consistent program under head coach Kyle Whittingham — and they have the opportunity to play spoiler for the Buffaloes Pac-12 Conference championship game aspirations. The Utes have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a win against a Pac-12 opponent. And while Utah did not commit a turnover last week, they have then covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games on the road after not committing a turnover in their last game. The Utes also rushed for 229 yards against the Beavers — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Utah has also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Colorado has covered the point spread in all four of their last games this season including their last two as the favorite. But the Buffaloes have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in at least two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after covering the point spread in two straight games as the favorite. Colorado defeated a terrible Wildcats team (that has now lost twelve straight games while only one time staying within single digits) despite committing three turnovers. The Buffaloes have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after turning the ball over at least three times in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado has benefited from a soft schedule — the Utes will be the best team they played in this abbreviated season. The Buffaloes also have the pressure of needing to win this game to stay alive to play in the Pac-12 championship game pending the results of USC later tonight. Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in December. 10* CFB Utah-Colorado Fox-TV Special with the Utah Utes (257) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Colorado Buffaloes (258). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Louisville Cardinals (114) minus the point(s) versus Wake Forest (113). THE SITUATION: Louisville (3-7) looks to bounce-back from a 34-27 loss at Boston College back on November 28th as a 1-point underdog. Wake Forest (4-3) takes the field again for the first time since November 14th when their four-game winning streak was snapped in a 59-53 loss at North Carolina as a 13-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS MINUS THE POINTS: Louisville lost to the Eagles despite outgaining them by +58 net yards. The Cardinals are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread victory. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 straight home games as a favorite. Despite their losing record, Louisville is outgaining their opponents by +72.2 net Yards-Per-Game this season. Wake Forest is being outgained by -10.0 net YPG this year due to their defense that is allowing 457.4 net YPG. The Demon Deacons surrendered a whopping 742 yards in their last game to the Tar Heels — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 525 yards in their last contest. Quarterback Sam Hartman did complete 29 of his 45 passes for 428 yards with four touchdown passes in a losing effort — but Wake Forest has then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Demon Deacons have only committed one turnover in their seven games this season — but they have then failed to cover the 9 of their last 12 games after not committing more than one turnover in at least five straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Wake Forest is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games on the road. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Louisville Cardinals (114) minus the point(s) versus Wake Forest (113). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Florida Atlantic Owls (375) minus the points versus the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (376). THE SITUATION: Florida Atlantic (5-2) looks to bounce back from a 20-3 loss at Georgia Southern last Saturday as a 2.5-point favorite. Southern Mississippi (2-7) returns to action to play their final game of the season after the last playing on November 21st where they lost to UTSA by a 23-20 score as a 9-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE OWLS MINUS THE POINTS: FAU still has plenty to play for — they need to win this game while hoping that Marshall loses tomorrow to win the Conference USA East Division and play in the Conference USA Championship Game. The Owls have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. FAU has also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Owls are playing outstanding defense in the first year under head coach Willie Taggart. They rank 3rd in the FBS by allowing only 12.4 PPG while also ranking 6th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 300.6 Yards-Per-Game. Defense travels — FAU has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on the road while also covering the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when favored. Southern Miss has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. This team may not have much to play for at this point. They hired a new head coach in Will Hall after Jay Hopson resigned in September. The Tulane offensive coordinator takes over next season with Scotty Walden still serving as the interim head coach. The Golden Eagles are also down to their third-string quarterback after senior Jack Abraham entered the transfer portal and then Tate Whatley suffered a shoulder injury in their game against the Roadrunners. As it is, Southern Miss has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home.

FINAL TAKE: FAU has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a Thursday — and the Golden Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a Thursday. 10* CFB FAU-Southern Miss CBS Sports Network Special with the Florida Atlantic Owls (375) minus the points versus the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (376). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (444) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (443). THE SITUATION: Duke (2-7) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests after their 56-33 upset loss at Georgia Tech as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Miami (7-1) takes the field again after last playing on November 14th when they upset Virginia Tech on the road by a 25-24 score as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE DEVILS PLUS THE POINTS: The Hurricanes have been hit by COVID which contributed to their last two games being canceled. Practices have been disrupted and it remains unclear what players will or will not be available for this game. As it is, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not playing for at least two weeks. And while the Hurricanes have won four games in a row, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning at least two games in a row. Miami is eking out close games — their last three victories have been by nine combined points despite being a double-digit favorite in two of those games. The Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games as a favorite laying at least 14 points against FBS foes. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road as a favorite. Duke has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after suffering an upset loss as a road favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing at least two games in a row. Quarterback Chase Brice completed only 19 of 40 passes against the Yellow Jackets but he did generate 273 passing yards with two touchdown passes — and the Blue Devils are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Duke is scoring 36.7 PPG — they should keep up with this Miami who has allowed their last three opponents to score 35.3 PPG and 459.5 Yards-Per-Game. The Blue Devils return home where they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They are also 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Duke will be confident in this game as they have pulled the upset against the Hurricanes in each of the last two seasons. The Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 5 straight games in December under head coach David Cutcliffe — and the Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games in December. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Duke Blue Devils (444) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (443). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wisconsin Badgers (402) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (401). THE SITUATION: Wisconsin (2-1) looks to bounce-back from a 17-7 upset loss at Northwestern two weeks ago as a 7-point favorite. Indiana (5-1) looks to build off their 27-11 win over Maryland as an 11.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BADGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Wisconsin did not play last week after their game was canceled because of COVID issues. The extra week to rest and prepare should help the Badgers as they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after a bye week. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. The Wisconsin defense is playing well as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. And while they held the Wildcats to just 263 yards, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing at least 275 yards in their last game. They return home to Madison where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games. Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite in their last game. They lost their dynamic dual-threat quarterback, Michael Penix, for the season last week to a torn ACL. Sophomore Jack Tuttle takes over under center — the Utah transfer is highly-regarded but he will not run the yardage that Penix did in this offense. The Hoosiers outrushed the Terrapins by +185 net yards last week but they have failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 41 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least +125 yards.

FINAL TAKE: Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in their last 4 games in Madison against the Badgers. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Wisconsin Badgers (402) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (401). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Auburn Tigers (412) plus the points versus the Texas A&M Aggies (411). THE SITUATION: Auburn (5-3) looks to rebound from their 42-13 loss at Alabama last Saturday as a 25.5-point underdog. Texas A&M (6-1) has won five games in a row with their 20-7 win over LSU last week as a 16-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Auburn should pick themselves off the mat after getting thrashed by their in-state rival in the Iron Bowl. The Tigers have bounced back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. They return home where they are a perfect 4-0 with an average winning margin of +17.0 PPG. Auburn has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games at home. And while they had covered the point spread in their previous three games before getting blown out by the Crimson Tide, they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. It is not often that this program is getting the points at home — they have only been a home dog six times since 2016. Auburn has covered the point spread in 5 of those 6 games with four outright upset victories — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 home games when getting the points. Furthermore, the Tigers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in December. Texas A&M managed only 267 yards against LSU last week despite having the football for 33:32 minutes. The Aggies averaged a mere 3.76 Yards-Per-Play in that game. Texas A&M has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to gain more than 275 yards in their last contest. With their 6-1 record, the Aggies are in the college football playoff hunt — especially with Ohio State at risk of not playing a minimum of five Big Ten games to qualify for the Big Ten Championship Game (although the conference will change their rules to give the Buckeyes eligibility for that game, if necessary). But the pressure could be too much for this Texas A&M team that only beat Vanderbilt by 5 points earlier this season. The Aggies did flex their muscles on defense by holding the Tigers to just 267 yards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Now Texas A&M goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games with the total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record, the Aggies have failed to cover the point spread 5 times.

FINAL TAKE: Texas A&M has only covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips to Auburn to play the Tigers. Expect a close game. 25* CFB SEC Underdog of the Year with the Auburn Tigers (412) plus the points versus the Texas A&M Aggies (411). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oklahoma State Cowboys (393) minus the point(s) versus the TCU Horned Frogs (394). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma State (6-2) has won two of their last three games after their 50-44 win over Texas Tech last Saturday as a 12-point favorite. TCU (4-4) has won three of their last four contests with their 59-23 victory at Kansas last week as a 23-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINT(S): Oklahoma State has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Oklahoma State offense got cranking by generating 539 yards of offense in the win. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points — and they have covered the point spread in 32 of their last 44 games after scoring at least 50 points in their last game. And while Oklahoma State has allowed at least 17 points in the first half of their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after allowing at least 17 points in the first half of two straight contests. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games in December. TCU has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win by at least 20 points. The Horned Frogs’ blowout over the Jayhawks was helped by two defensive touchdowns along with a 37-yard punt return for a TD. Yet starting quarterback Max Duggan competed only 3 of 11 passes for a mere 96 yards which is not going to get it done against this Cowboys team. The Horned Frogs return home where they are just 1-3 this season while failing to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games. TCU has been hit hard by COVID with at least 30 players being infected at one point. And while head coach Gary Patterson’s team would love to play spoiler against this Oklahoma State team with Big 12 Championship Game aspirations, they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma State has thrived in expected close games under head coach Mike Gundy. The Cowboys have won ten of their last twelve games when listed in the +/- 3-point range while going 8-2-2 ATS in those contests. 10* CFB Oklahoma State-TCU ESPN2 Special with the Oklahoma State Cowboys (393) minus the point(s) versus the TCU Horned Frogs (394). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (327) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (328). THE SITUATION: UL-Lafayette (8-1) has won five straight games after their 70-20 blowout victory at UL-Monroe as a 28.5-point favorite last Saturday. Appalachian State (7-2) looks to build off their 47-10 win over Troy as a 14-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAGIN’ CAJUNS PLUS THE POINTS: UL-Lafayette has had this game circled all year after losing to Appalachian State for the second straight year in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game last season — and that loss was the fourth setback to the Mountaineers in the last two seasons after they also dropped the regular-season matchup between these two teams. The Ragin’ Cajuns have already punched their ticket to play in the conference championship for the third straight time in a row with the opportunity to avenge their only loss this season with a date against Coastal Carolina — but defeating this Appalachian State team remains a very high priority for head coach Billy Napier and the fourteen starters back from last season. UL-Lafayette should build off their momentum from last week as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by at least 20 points. And while they generated 511 yards last week against the War Hawks, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. UL-Lafayette is averaging 5.8 Yards-Per-Carry which is 6th in the nation — and they have outrushed their last two opponents by at least +131 net rushing yards. The Ragin’ Cajuns have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after outrushing their last two opponents by at least +125 net rushing yards. This team is undefeated on the road with a 5-0 mark — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. UL-Lafayette has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games with the total set in the 49.5 to 52 point range. And in their last 11 games on the road as an underdog, the Ragin’ Cajuns have covered the point spread in 8 of these contests. Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a win at home by at least four touchdowns. Furthermore, while the Mountaineers enjoyed a 34-10 halftime lead last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after leading by at least 24 points at halftime of their last game. Appalachian State rushed for 275 yards last week which helped to fuel their 554 total yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Mountaineers have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last contest. The scoring punch has been down this season for this team as their 32.8 PPG scoring average is -6.0 PPG below what they tallied last year even though eight starters are back from that unit. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 52 point range. And in their last 9 games as a favorite, Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread 7 times.

FINAL TAKE: I waited to get the weather update today for Boone, North Carolina, because I would be less enthusiastic about the Ragin’ Cajuns if the temperature dropped below 32 degrees with rain expected. The weather reports call for temperatures in the 40s during the game with the wind not much of a factor — and that should help the UL-Lafayette passing game. The Mountaineers have a new head coach this year in Shawn Clark who was an assistant to the Scott Satterfield and Eliah Drinkwater coached-teams of the previous two seasons that have dominated the Ragin’ Cajuns. The motivational edge for UL-Lafayette should make the difference tonight. 25* CFB Friday ESPN Game of the Year with the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (327) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (328). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (297) plus the points versus the Washington Huskies (298). THE SITUATION: Utah (0-1) looks to bounce-back from their 31-17 upset loss at home to USC last week as a 1-point favorite. Washington (2-0) comes off a 44-27 win against Arizona last week as a 12-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES PLUS THE POINTS: That was just the first game of the season for head coach Kyle Whittingham with his team with COVID issues causing the cancellation of their games with Arizona and UCLA — and this game was rescheduled earlier this week after Arizona State had an outbreak. Look for this team to be much improved this week with a week of practice that can focus on the mistakes from last week — the proverbial coaching jump from Game One to Game Two. Whittingham returned an inexperienced team that has just nine starters back from the group that finished 11-3 last season. Whittingham tapped redshirt sophomore Cameron Rising as his quarterback — but the Texas transfer lasted about a quarter last week before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury. Whittingham now turns to another transfer in Jake Bentley who came over in the offseason from South Carolina. He will benefit from the week of practice with the first unit along with a game-plan more tailored to his skill set. The defense should play better as well with nine new starters — they allowed the Trojans to gain 357 yards which was not a bad effort against that powerful offensive group. It was five turnovers and a -3 net turnover margin that hurt the Utes last week. They did hold USC to just 93 rushing yards — and they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than 100 rushing yards in their last game. Utah is dangerous as an underdog as they are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games as a road dog. They have also covered the point spread in 37 of their last 56 games when getting 3.5 to 10 points. And in their last 31 road games against teams with a winning record at home, Utah has covered the point spread in 21 of these games. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a double-digit win at home against a Pac-12 opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread victory. The Huskies have 12 starters back the team that finished 8-5 last season. But Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. They host this game where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Huskies went from their expected rivalry game with Washington State in the Apple Cup to their most difficult opponent so far this season midweek with the Utes given the scheduling change. The Utah defense should keep this a close game. 10* CFB Utah-Washington ABC-TV Special with the Utah Utes (297) plus the points versus the Washington Huskies (298). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Mississippi Rebels (242) minus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (241). THE SITUATION: Ole Miss (3-4) has won two straight games with their 59-42 victory over South Carolina as a 12.5-point favorite two weeks ago on November 14th. Mississippi State (2-5) looks to rebound from their 31-24 loss at Georgia last Saturday as a 26.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REBELS MINUS THE POINTS: Mississippi should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a victory. Quarterback Matt Corral completed 28 of 32 passes for 513 yards with four touchdown passes in the victory. Head coach Lane Kiffin can coach offense. This Rebels team is 11th in the FBS by averaging 6.9 Yards-Per-Play — and they rank 4th in the nation by averaging 10.9 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. They put up 42 points against Alabama — and they are averaging 42.5 PPG along with 603.0 total YPG when playing at home. Ole Miss did surrender 548 yards to the Gamecocks two weeks ago — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. The Rebels have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. Mississippi State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. It will be difficult for the Bulldogs to keep up with the Ole Miss offense even under first-year head coach Mike Leach. Mississippi State has failed to score more than 14 points in four of their seven games. The Bulldogs stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games against teams with a losing record at home (Ole Miss is 1-3 at home). Mississippi State has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Rebels will have revenge on their minds as well after losing last year’s Egg Bowl by a 21-20 score at Mississippi State. 20* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Mississippi Rebels (242) minus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (241). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan State Spartans (180) plus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (179). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (1-3) looks to rebound from getting shutout out two weeks ago on November 14th by a 24-0 score as a 7.5-point favorite against Indiana. Northwestern (5-0) comes off a big 17-7 upset win at home against Wisconsin last week as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS PLUS THE POINTS: Look for Northwestern to suffer an emotional letdown after their big win over the Badgers that put them in the college football playoff conversation. The Wildcats were outgained by -103 net yards but benefited from a +4 net turnover margin. Northwestern is only outgaining their opponents by +21.8 net YPG — and they are only outgaining their opponents by +3.5 net YPG on the road. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games are games after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game. Northwestern simply does not score enough to be a reliable two-touchdown favorite. They are scoring only 21.7 PPG in their last three games while averaging just 290.7 total YPG. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing a game where no more than 29 combined points were scored. And while Northwestern has played all five of their games Under the Total, the Wildcats have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing five straight Unders. Michigan State has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after playing a game where no more than 24 combined points were scored. The Spartans should play better with an extra week to prepare. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. Head coach Mel Tucker has also seen his teams cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as a dog.

FINAL TAKE: Northwestern has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as a favorite laying 10.5 to 21 points. 10* CFB Northwestern-Michigan State ESPN Special with the Michigan State Spartans (180) plus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (179). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ball State Cardinals (199) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (200). THE SITUATION: Ball State (2-1) has won two games in a row with their 31-25 victory over Northern Illinois on November 18th as a 14.5-point favorite. Toledo (2-1) comes off a 45-28 win at Eastern Michigan as a 6.5-point favorite on November 18th in midweek MACtion.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Ball State is a veteran team with 14 starters back including six all-conference players from the group that was 4-4 in Mid-American Conference play last season. That team outgained their conference opponents by +31 Yards-Per-Game but too often stymied by bad luck. The Cardinals have been typically a dangerous underdog to keep their games close under head coach Mike Neu in his fifth year with the program. Ball State has covered the point spread in 4 straight games as an underdog — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road getting the points. Led by senior quarterback Drew Plitt along with another six senior starters on offense, the Cardinals are scoring 33.3 PPG this season while averaging 476.3 total YPG. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Toledo has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. And while the Rockets went into halftime with a 24-7 lead over the Eagles, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after owning at least a 17-point halftime lead. Senior quarterback Eli Peters is questionable for this game wit the knee injury that knocked him out of last week’s game. Sophomore Carter Bradley came on as his understudy to complete 5 of 8 passes for 108 yards. Peters and Bradley combined for 298 passing yards — but Toledo has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Rockets have played their last two games Over the Total — but not only have they failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game, they have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after playing two straight Overs. They return home to the Glass Bowl where they are just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Ball State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 trips to Toledo to face the Rockets. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Game of the Month with the Ball State Cardinals (199) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (200). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (136) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (135). THE SITUATION: North Carolina (6-2) has won two games in a row with their 59-53 victory over Wake Forest as a 13-point favorite back on November 14th. Notre Dame (8-0) returns to action after a bye week last week coming off a 45-31 win at Boston College as a 13-point favorite on November 14th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS PLUS THE POINTS: With the Fighting Irish opening as the second-ranked team in the college football playoff, the pressure is on for this team to win out their remaining games to play in the ACC Championship Game with a win securing one of the four spots in the college football playoff. Yet Notre Dame has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after winning at least eight games in a row. The Irish have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after playing a game where both teams scored at least 30 points. Notre Dame averaged 7.58 Yards-Per-Play to defeat the Eagles two weeks ago — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games on the road after averaging at least 7.25 Yards-Per-Play in their last game. The Irish have scored at least 31 points in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after scoring at least 31 points in four straight games. The foundation of this outstanding Notre Dame offense this season has been their offensive line that returned all five of their starters. But that chemistry and cohesion are now in flux with two starters on that line out for this game. Center Jarrett Patterson is out the season with a broken foot and right guard Tommy Kraemer, a four-year starter, is out this week after having an appendectomy. Those are ominous absences for a team that has looked vulnerable on defense in their last two games as they have surrendered 71 combined points in those games. North Carolina rallied from a three-touchdown deficit to defeat the Demon Deacons two weeks ago — and they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Sophomore quarterback Sam Howell completed 32 of 45 passes for 550 yards with six touchdown passes in the victory — and the Tar Heels have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. North Carolina has a potent offense that should be able to keep up with the Irish. The Tar Heels rank 4th in the nation by averaging 563.4 total YPG — and their 43.1 PPG scoring average is 10th in the nation. North Carolina has struggled on defense — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. They host this game in their final conference home game this season where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as an underdog. The Tar Heels have also covered the point spread in 25 of their last 32 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: North Carolina can play this game loose in the role of the spoiler in this one — and they are undefeated at home with a 4-0 mark while scoring 48.5 PPG and averaging a whopping 609.8 total YPG in those games. Expect a close game with the Tar Heels in a position to pull the upset. 25* CFB ACC Game of the Year with the North Carolina Tar Heels (136) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (135). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (144) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (143). THE SITUATION: Texas (5-2) finally returns to action for the first time since November 7th after their 17-13 win over West Virginia as a 6.5-point favorite. Iowa State (6-2) has won three straight games with their 45-0 win over Kansas State last week as a 13.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS PLUS THE POINTS: Iowa State is 6-1 in the Big 12 with aspirations of reaching the Big 12 championship game — so they will be feeling the pressure. Yet the Cyclones are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Iowa State gained 539 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. They also held the Wildcats to just 149 yards — but they are just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Now Iowa State goes back on the road where they are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when favored by 3 points or less. And in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record, the Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread 4 times. Texas has not played given complications with COVID — but they were ready to play last week before issues with Kansas prompted the cancellation. Head coach Tom Herman’s roster should be ready to go. The Longhorns defeated Oklahoma State by a 41-34 score in their previous game before their win over the Mountaineers to begin the month — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning their last two games by a touchdown or less against Big 12 opponents. And while Texas has only covered the point spread once in their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Longhorns are also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game. Herman’s teams do certainly seem to perform better with a chip on their shoulder as his teams have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Texas will also have revenge on their minds from a 23-21 loss in Ames as a 7-point underdog last season. 10* CFB Iowa State-Texas ABC-TV Special with the Texas Longhorns (144) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (143). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oklahoma State Cowboys (401) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (402). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma State (5-1) takes the field again after their 20-18 win at Kansas State two weeks ago as a 14-point favorite. Oklahoma (5-2) has won four games in a row with their 62-9 victory against Kansas two weeks ago as a 38.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: I held off on this play until getting the final update on the Oklahoma State injury situation. The reports are that this team is back to 100% health with the extra week off to prepare for this game. Running back Chuba Hubbard, wide receiver Tylan Wallace, and three starters on the offensive line have been either out or slowed with injuries — so this is a significant development. The Cowboys managed only 256 yards against the Wildcats in their last game which was the lowest yardage output for them since 2014 — but these injuries played a role in that output. Oklahoma State should be racing to go in this game —and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after their bye week. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a point spread loss — and they are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a straight-up win. Oklahoma State has a solid defense even above typical Big 12 standards as they are holding their opponents to just 17.8 PPG along with only 311.7 total YPG. They are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Now they go back on the road where they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games as a road dog. Oklahoma has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least 20 points. The Sooners have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Oklahoma flexed their muscles on defense by limiting the Jayhawks to just 246 yards. But the Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing no more than 275 yards in their last contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. Oklahoma has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they are also 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games in November.

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma State has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record — and they have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games as an underdog. The road team has covered the point spread in 7 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams — expect a close game. 10* CFB Oklahoma State-Oklahoma ABC-TV Special with the Oklahoma State Cowboys (401) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (402). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Central Florida Knights (344) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (343). THE SITUATION: Central Florida (5-2) has won three straight games after their 38-13 win over Temple last week as a 28.5-point favorite last Saturday. Cincinnati (7-0) remained unbeaten last week with their 55-13 win over East Carolina as a 27.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNIGHTS PLUS THE POINTS: Central Florida has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. After losing to Tulsa and Memphis, the Knights have rattled off three-straight wins while scoring 44.3 PPG in those games. This team is an offensive juggernaut under head coach Josh Heupel. They lead the nation by averaging a whopping 619.1 total YPG in their up-tempo attack. Sophomore quarterback Dillon Gabriel has found a nice rhythm as he has completed 57 of 95 passes for 1018 yards with nine touchdown passes and no interceptions. For the season, the lefty is completing 63.3% of his passes with 23 touchdown passes and just two interceptions while averaging 393.6 passing YPG which leads the nation. Their +129 net yardage edge over the Owls was the slimmest margin in their last three contests — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after outgaining their last three opponents by at least +125 net yards. They have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 54 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points. Additionally, the Knights have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite. The Bearcats benefited from a +3 net turnover margin against the Pirates — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. Cincinnati has college football playoff aspirations on their minds — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning at least seven games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Bearcats have feasted on a soft schedule — their opponents have a combined 15-13 record with 11 of those victories coming from SMU and Memphis. The Bearcats are allowing only 12.4 PPG this season but they have yet to play an opponent who pushes the pace like the Knights. This Cincy may be overrated given their easy schedule. Tulsa ranks just ahead of them in Defensive Expected Points Allowed — and Central Florida put up 455 yards against the Golden Hurricane defense.

FINAL TAKE: UCF should put up plenty of points against the Bearcats who are not as comfortable playing in shootouts. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games with the total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games away from home with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. The Bearcats upset the Knights last season by a 27-24 score at home as a 3.5-point underdog on October 4th — so this is a prime opportunity for UCF to exact some revenge. 25* CFB American Athletic Conference Underdog of the Year with the Central Florida Knights (344) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (343). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (358) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (357). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (3-0) enters this showdown of undefeated teams coming off a 49-27 victory against Rutgers as a 37.5-point favorite. Indiana (4-0) comes off a 24-0 win at Michigan State as a 7.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Ohio State’s victory over the Scarlet Knights was not as close as the final score indicated with Rutgers scoring from a 58-yard punt return and then a late garbage touchdown in the second half. The Buckeyes went into the locker room at halftime with a 35-3 lead. Ohio State should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a win by at least 20 points. The Buckeyes have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after scoring at least 40 points. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when favored. Ohio State has also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when favored. Indiana has been a nice story — but they are just 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a win by at least 20 points. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a shutout victory. The Hoosiers limited the Spartans to just 191 yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Now Indiana goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 road games when getting 14.5 to 21 points.

FINAL TAKE: Ohio State crushed Indiana by a 51-10 score last season in September. There remains a significant talent differential between these two teams. And the Buckeyes usually get riled up when facing good competition as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. 10* CFB Indiana-Ohio State Fox-TV Special with the Ohio State Buckeyes (358) minus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (357). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia Southern Eagles (365) plus the points versus the Army Black Knights (366). THE SITUATION: Georgia Southern (6-2) has won three games in a row with their 40-38 win against Texas State last week as a 12.5-point favorite. Army (6-2) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last Saturday as a 3-point underdog with their 38-12 loss at Tulane.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Georgia Southern has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. The Eagles have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win by 7 points or less against a conference opponent. Georgia Southern has also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. The Eagles did get their ground game rolling last week as they generated 386 yards on the ground while outgaining the Bobcats by +356 net rushing yards which is a great sign for them in this game. Georgia Southern has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after rushing for at least 300 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least 200 yards. Now the Eagles go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games. Army endured a -3 net turnover margin in their loss last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 39 games after having a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. The Black Knights have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 home games after winning two of their last three games. Army may be  a paper tiger — three of their victories have come against FCS opponents with their other three wins being against teams ranked 108th, 122nd, and 123rd in the ESPN Football Power Index (for what those rankings are worth). The Black Knights’ losses have been against Cincinnati and the Green Wave last week — and they have only scored 22 combined points in those two games. Army may struggle to get their triple option rushing attack going against this Appalachian State defense that leads the Sun Belt Conference by holding opposing rushers to just 3.48 Yards-Per-Carry. This is expected to be a lower-scoring game with the total dropping below 42. But the Black Knights have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games with the over/under set at 42 or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when playing at home with the total no higher than 42.

FINAL TAKE: Army has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Don’t be surprised if Georgia Southern pulls the upset — but take the points for some insurance. 10* CFB Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Georgia Southern Eagles (365) plus the points versus the Army Black Knights (366). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Louisville Cardinals (326) minus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (325). THE SITUATION: Louisville (2-6) has lost two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests after their 31-17 loss at Virginia as a 6.5-point underdog last Saturday. Syracuse (1-7) has lost five games in a row with their 16-13 loss to Boston College as a 14.5-point underdog two weeks ago on November 7th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS MINUS THE POINTS: Turnovers were the culprit for Louisville not being in a position to defeat the Cavaliers. Junior quarterback threw an interception that was returned for an 85-yard touchdown in the first quarter that served as a 10 to 14-point swing with the Cardinals in the red zone. Cunningham then fumbled in Virginia territory at the 8:22 minute mark in the fourth quarter to ruin a potential game-tying touchdown drive. Louisville outgained the Cavaliers by +110 net yards. Head coach Scott Satterfield’s team should bounce-back as they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a point spread defeat. Furthermore, Louisville has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game. The Cardinals have been held back by a -12 net turnover margin with their 18 giveaways ranking 3rd most in the FBS. Louisville is outgaining their opponents by +48.5 net YPG this season which tracks with their preseason expectations. Satterfield returned 16 starters from last year’s 8-5 team. Defense was considered the biggest concern for this team but they did hold Notre Dame to only 12 points and they also held Florida State to just 16 points. Their return home where they are outgaining their opponents by +128.7 net YPG. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as a favorite. Cunningham is a dynamic talent at quarterback who rushed for 197 yards with two touchdowns in the losing effort against the Cavaliers. He is completing 63.2% of his passes for 1907 yards with 15 touchdown passes but his nine interceptions are a problem — but he faces an Orange defense that has forced only one turnover in their last three games. Louisville averages 38.0 PPG along with 530.0 total YPG in their four home games — so they have the offensive firepower to blow Syracuse out. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 3 straight games when favored by 10.5 to 21 points. Syracuse has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games after a loss by a touchdown or less again an ACC opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Orange managed only 240 yards of offense in the loss. Syracuse entered the season with only 11 starters back from last year’s 5-7 that finished only 2-6 in ACC play. Injuries and opt-outs have further decimated what was already a shaky roster. The Orange are now without their top two running backs from their original depth chart along with their top two defensive backs including safety Andre Cisco who enter the leading the nation with his 12 career interceptions (which correlates with the steep decline in the team’s takeaways). Syracuse also lost their starting quarterback Tommy Devito in mid-October. After three subpar starts from senior Rex Culpepper, head coach Dino Babers turned to a true freshman in JaCobian Morgan to make his first start against the Eagles two weeks ago. Morgan was OK that week — he completed 19 of 30 passes for 188 yards with a TD and an interception. But this is a tough assignment being asked to outduel Cunningham leading a team that is just 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. Syracuse has also failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 58 games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points.

FINAL TAKE: Louisville will not have their top running back, Javian Hawkins, who has opted-out for the rest of the season — but they expect to get their speedy junior Hassan Hill to return to action after missing the last three games. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in their last 4 opportunities to host the Orange. This may look like a lot of points to lay for a 2-6 team — but let’s trust the wisdom of the oddsmakers. 25* CFB Friday ESPN Game of the Month with the Louisville Cardinals (326) minus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (325). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (426) minus the points versus the Tulane Green Wave (425). THE SITUATION: Tulsa (4-1) has won four straight games with their 28-24 victory over SMU last Saturday as a 1-point favorite. Tulane (5-4) has won three straight games with their 38-12 win over Army on Saturday as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN HURRICANE MINUS THE POINTS: Tulsa rallied from a 24-7 halftime deficit to defeat the Mustangs. Don’t tear up your tickets with head coach Phillip Montgomery’s team as they have also rallied from an 18-point deficit to Central Florida and a 14-point hole to East Carolina. This team seems to be putting it all together this season after going 4-8 last year in a rugged schedule that featured nine bowl teams. That group dealt with a handful of heartbreaking missed field goals that overwhelmed their +45 net YPG mark in conference play. The Golden Hurricane is outscoring their opponents by +7.2 PPG this season while outgaining them by +43.4 net YPG. Tulsa gained 455 yards against SMU — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Golden Hurricane is also 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games after a point spread victory. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games at home against teams with winning records. And in their last 26 games overall against teams with a winning record, Montgomery’s teams have covered the point spread in 19 of these contests. Tulane has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a victory by at least 20 points. The Green Wave limited the Black Knights to just 303 yards of offense — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. This Tulane defense is still allowing 27.6 PPG along with 421.7 total YPG — and those marks rise to 33.8 PPG and 467.8 YPG in their five games on the road. The Green Wave have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Tulane has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Tulane has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 trips to Tulsa to play the Golden Hurricane. They have won three in a row against Tulsa after their 38-26 win at home as a 10-point favorite last year. That loss should provide bulletin-board fodder for Montgomery for this rematch. 10* CFB Tulane-Tulsa ESPN Special with the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (426) minus the points versus the Tulane Green Wave (425). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Central Michigan Chippewas (314) plus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (313). THE SITUATION: Central Michigan (2-0) remained unbeaten so far this season with their 40-10 win at Northern Illinois as a 5.5-point favorite last Wednesday. Western Michigan (2-0) comes off a 41-38 win against Toledo last Wednesday as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIPPEWAS PLUS THE POINT(S): Central Michigan has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Chippewas has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least 20 points. The Central Michigan defense is playing outstanding as they lead the Mid-American Conference by holding their opponents to just 18.5 PPG. They already have four takeaways with 13 tackles-for-loss — and they have allowed only one play of more than 40 yards. They have a balanced offense that is averaging 210.5 rushing YPG and 219.5 passing YPG. They return  home where they have won all seven of their games since the start of last season. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home. Western Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games after a point spread victory. And while the Broncos have won and covered the point spread in their first two games after defeating Akron by a 58-13 score in their opening game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after winning and covering the point spread in two straight games. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 31 points in two straight games. Western Michigan did surrender 501 yards against the Rockets — and they are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. They needed to recover an onside kick with under a minute to go to orchestrate their 10-point rally with under three minutes to go to eke out that game against Toledo. The Broncos have won the turnover battle in their first two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after enjoying a +1 or better turnover margin in their last game. And in their last 9 games on the road, Western Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: Central Michigan will be looking to avenge a 31-15 loss at Western Michigan last season which should ensure they are very motivated for this MAC West division clash. 10* CFB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Central Michigan Chippewas (314) plus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (313). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Virginia Tech Hokies (156) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (155). THE SITUATION: Virginia Tech (4-3) looks to bounce-back from their 38-35 upset loss at home to Liberty last Saturday as a 17-point favorite. Miami (6-1) has won three games in a row with their 44-41 win at North Carolina State as a 10.5-point favorite last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HOKIES MINUS THE POINTS: Virginia Tech thought they had staved-off the embarrassing upset last week as they blocked Liberty’s attempt at a game-winning field goal and returned it for their potential 42-35 victory. But Hokies’ head coach Justin Fuente had called a time out in an attempt to freeze the Flames’ kicker which instead stymied his special teams’ great play. Liberty went on to kick the game-winning field goal. Virginia Tech should respond with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. And while the Hokies have scored 77 combined points in their last two games — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after scoring at least 31 points in two straight games. Virginia Tech stays at home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Hokies have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in November. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after winning at least four of their last five games. And while the Hurricanes preceded their victory the Wolfpack with a 19-14 win versus Virginia, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning two games in a row by no more than 7 points against ACC foes. Miami put up 620 yards of offense against NC State in their win — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Hurricanes have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Miami has won the turnover battle in each of their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after their turnover chain helped them accrue a +1 or better turnover margin in at least two straight games. The Hurricanes stay on the road where they are allowing their home hosts to score 39.0 PPG while allowing these foes to average 492.0 total YPG. Miami is not getting much from their running game outside D’Eriq King either — lead running back Cam’ron Harris has not topped 50 rushing yards in his last six games.

FINAL TAKE: The Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Miami has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games with the Total set at 63 or higher. 20* CFB Miami-Virginia Tech ESPN Special with the Virginia Tech Hokies (156) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (155). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Michigan State Spartans (164) plus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (163). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (1-2) looks to bounce back from their 49-7 loss at Iowa last week as a 5.5-point underdog. Indiana (3-0) look to build off their 38-21 upset victory over Michigan last Saturday as a 4.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS PLUS THE POINTS: Michigan State was likely due for an emotional letdown after upsetting Michigan in Ann Arbor the previous week. A -3 net turnover margin did Sparty in against the Hawkeyes. Michigan State committed 7 turnovers in their opening week upset loss against Rutgers. The Spartans have a -7 net turnover margin on the season. Now Michigan State returns home where they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games as a dog getting 7.5 to 14 points. The Spartans have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 26 home games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 52 point range. Indiana had failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 34 games after a win at home by at least 17 points. The Hoosiers benefited from a +2 net turnover margin in that game. Indiana has been fortunate with turnover luck as they have a +6 net turnover margin on the season. Now they go back on the road where have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a losing record at home.

FINAL TAKE: While I am not surprised that the Hoosiers have started the season with three wins, they don’t deserve to be touchdown road favorites — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games when favored. Michigan State's first-year head coach Mel Tucker is good. 10* CFB Indiana-Michigan State ABC-TV Special with the Michigan State Spartans (164) plus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (163). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Minnesota Golden Gophers (128) plus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (127). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (1-2) won their first game of the season last week with their 41-14 win at Illinois as a 7.5-point favorite. Iowa (1-2) also snapped a two-game losing streak to win their opening game of the season last Saturday with their 49-7 victory over Michigan State as a 5.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN GOPHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Minnesota should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, the Golden Gophers have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a victory by at least three touchdowns against a Big Ten rival. The Minnesota defense played their best game of the season by holding the Illini to just 287 yards of offense. The Gophers have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Minnesota offense has been quite good as they are scoring 36.3 Points-Per-Game while averaging 444.3 total YPG. Running back Mo Ibrahim leads the nation by averaging 190.3 rushing YPG. They have 85 combined points in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after scoring at least 31 points in two straight games. The Gophers return home where they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. Additionally, Minnesota is 28-12-2 ATS in their last 42 games in November. Iowa may be due for an emotional letdown after they crushed the Spartans last week. The Hawkeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. Iowa scored on a 54-yard punt return for a touchdown and then a 54-yard interception touchdown return to close out the second quarter and go into halftime with a 35-0 lead. Yet Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after owning at least a 17-point lead at halftime in their last game. The Hawkeyes have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And in their last 6 games are not allowing more than 20 points in their last game, Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota will have revenge on their minds for this one as Iowa ruined their unbeaten season last year on November 16th with their 23-19 win in Iowa City as a 3.5-point favorite. The Golden Gophers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog under head coach P.J. Fleck. 25* CFB Big Ten Underdog of the Month with the Minnesota Golden Gophers (128) plus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (127). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Western Michigan Broncos (120) minus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (119). THE SITUATION: Western Michigan (1-0) opened their season last week with a 58-13 win at Akron as a 19.5-point favorite. Toledo (1-0) opened their season last Wednesday with a 38-3 victory over Bowling Green.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: Western Michigan dominated the Zips last week by outgaining them by +228 net yards. Redshirt sophomore Kaleb Eleby completed 12 of 16 passes for 262 yards in his first collegiate start — and he tossed three touchdown passes. He leads the Broncos’ offense to 484 total yards — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Eleby redshirted last season during Jon Wassink’s senior season where he won the Mid-American Conference Offensive Player of the Year. In 2018, Eleby completed 92 of 147 passes for 1092 yards with four touchdown passes in five games after Wassink suffered a knee injury. He threw for 293 yards against Toledo that season. This is a consistent program in the fourth season under head coach Tim Lester which was bowl eligible for the sixth straight season last year with their 7-6 record. Eleven starters return from the group that lost to Western Kentucky in the First Responder Bowl. Six starters are back on defense with the unit that held Akron to just 256 yards last week. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 32 of their last 54 games after allowing no more than 14 points in their last game. Western Michigan is also 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games at home. Toledo has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. The Rockets have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Now they go on the road where they were winless in four conference games last season while being outscored by -28 Points-Per-Game. Toledo has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Western Michigan will be looking to avenge a 31-24 loss at Toledo last season as a 1.5-point underdog on October 5th. 10* CFB Wednesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Western Michigan Broncos (120) minus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (119). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:45 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (314) plus the points versus the Brigham Young University Cougars (313). THE SITUATION: Boise State (2-0) won their second-straight game this season with their 49-30 win at Air Force last Saturday as a 13-point favorite. BYU (7-0) remained unbeaten this season last Saturday with their 41-10 victory at home against Western Kentucky as a 31.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: Boise State quarterback Hank Bachmeier did not get on the plane to Air Force last week for an undisclosed reason — the Broncos did have one player who tested positive for COVID but privacy reasons preclude the release of that information (and they had another player not make the trip). Just as well, competitively, as it allowed Jack Sears to get his shot under center. The USC transfer completed 17 of 20 passes for 280 yards with three touchdown passes (no interceptions) with another 36 rushing yards with a touchdown. Boise State has not announced their starting quarterback for this game — frankly, I think Sears is better but I was prepared to still back the Broncos if Bachmeier was the confirmed starter. Put another way, if Bachmeier starts but struggles, head coach Bryan Harsin is going to turn to Sears. As it is, the Broncos have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 home games after a win by at least five touchdowns against a conference rival. Sears led an offense that generated 459 yards last week — and they are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Boise State did allow the Falcons to gain 484 yards in that game but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. The Broncos have only forced one turnover this season — and they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 38 games after not forcing more than one turnover in two straight games. They return home to their blue field where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games. They also have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games as an underdog. BYU has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a victory by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. The Cougars have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. BYU has not allowed more than 267 yards in two straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in two straight games. This is the Cougars’ best start since 2001 — but their best competition has been against middling Houston and Navy teams this season. BYU was a two-touchdown or more favorite in their other five games this season. And this remains a program that entered the season with a 14-74 straight-up record against top-25 teams since 1972. The Cougars have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in November.

FINAL TAKE: This game does have playoff implications with BYU ranked 9th in the AP poll with Boise State ranked 21st but a potential playoff team if they go undefeated to win the Mountain West Conference. The Broncos will be looking to avenge a 28-25 upset loss at BYU last year on October 19th where they were 7-point favorites. Boise State has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a Friday night. 25* CFB Friday FS1-TV Game of the Year with the Boise State Broncos (314) plus the points versus the Brigham Young University Cougars (313). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Colorado State Rams (306) plus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (305). THE SITUATION: Colorado State (0-1) lost its opening game of the season last Thursday in their 38-17 upset loss at Fresno State as a 2.5-point favorite. Wyoming (1-1) comes off a 31-7 win at home against Hawai’i last Friday as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Colorado finally played their first game of the season last week after having their opening game with New Mexico canceled because of some COVID issues with the Lobos. The Rams also had COVID issues that kept sophomore wide receiver Dante Wright and tight end, Trey McBride, out for that game. With Warren Jackson leaving the team earlier this fall, those absences left this offense thin with their passing targets. Getting the updated COVID lists for all of these teams is simply essential before investing. Both Wright and McBride will return for this game which will make a huge difference. Wright is a speedy sophomore and McBride is a potential NFL prospect. First-year head coach Steve Addazio was frustrated with the mistakes his team made last week. Said the former Boston College head coach after the game: “We've just got to get rid of the massive amount of mistakes that we had on both sides of the ball … Blown coverages, misaligned on defense ... Then (on offense), we had a couple of ridiculous mistakes that were drive-killers … We just need to be way, way more consistent.” The biggest jumps in improvement often come after the opening game of the season — I expect a much better effort from this Rams team tonight. As it is, Colorado State has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Rams have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss by at least 20 points. And in their last 5 games after failing to score at last 20 points, Colorado State has covered the point spread in 4 of these games. They returned 15 starters from last year’s team that was only 4-8 — but they did outgain their Mountain West Conference foes by +34 Yards-Per-Game. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games. Wyoming has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset victory by at least 10 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games if they come off a home game where they pulled off an upset victory by double-digits. The Cowboys only committed one turnover in that game which helped them win the turnover battle for the second-straight week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after not turning the ball over more than once in their last game. We had Wyoming in that game in just a great situation with them returning home to host the Rainbow Warriors in very cold weather. The Cowboys have now won seven straight games at home to improve their 30-15 straight-up mark in the last forty-five games at War Memorial Stadium. But Wyoming has lost six of their last eight games away from home. Twelve starters returned from the team last year that finished 8-5 — but they lost their top three tacklers from that group. Nevada rolled up 496 yards against them in their opening game loss in Reno. Wyoming has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games when laying 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have won the last four Border Wars between these two teams after last year’s 17-7 victory at home in Laramie. Look for Colorado State to be in a position to pull the upset tonight in Addazio’s second game with the team. 25* CFB Thursday CBS Sports Network Game of the Year with the Colorado State Rams (306) plus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:45 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Wyoming Cowboys (142) minus the point(s) versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (141). THE SITUATION: Wyoming (0-1) looks to rebound from their 37-34 upset loss at Nevada in overtime last week by a 3-point favorite. Hawai’i (1-0) comes off a 34-19 upset win at Fresno State last Saturday as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINT(S): Wyoming started slowly as they fell behind by a 28-6 margin before rallying to force overtime where they eventually failed to steal the victory. But the Cowboys have then bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread setback. Wyoming endured sophomore quarterback Sean Chambers suffer a season-ending broken leg in the third play of this game. Chambers started the first seven games last year before suffering a season-ending knee injury. However, the Cowboys have a capable replacement in redshirt freshman Levi Williams, who led the team to 38 points as the starter last year in their 38-17 victory over Georgia State in the Arizona Bowl. Williams completed 16 of 31 passes for 227 yards while adding another 40 yards on the ground with two touchdowns in almost leading his team to the comeback win. Chambers is a run-first quarterback — Williams is the better passer while still offering running skills. Despite the loss, this is a good Wyoming team that returned over 70% of the two-deep from the team last year that finished 8-5. Many observers have commented on the lack of a home-field advantage when playing in a pandemic without crowded stadiums — but this has been a myopic view of the intangibles that offer teams a home edge. The Cowboys retain a significant home edge playing in Laramie, with it being 7220 feet above sea level. Becoming comfortable playing in a high altitude is not as easy for visiting teams — Wyoming has won 29 of their last 44 games at home on Jonah Field in War Memorial Stadium, including all six home contests last season. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games when favored. Hawai’i has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset win by at least 10 points as a road underdog. The Rainbow Warriors ran for 323 yards in the first game under first-year head coach Todd Graham who has molded the team’s Run-and-Shoot attack with Air Raid principles and an increased emphasis on running the football. But Hawai’i has failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after rushing for at least 200 yards. Graham inherited eleven starters from last year’s team finished 10-5 with their 38-34 win over BYU in the Hawai’i Bowl. That team enjoyed four net victories in games decided by one scoring possession — so that winning record could have been flipped with some bad breaks. They did have a -11 net turnover margin last year — but they enjoyed a fortunate +3 net turnover edge against the Bulldogs last week. Now this team goes on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. Additionally, the Rainbow Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games against teams with a losing record — and they are just 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Graham had scheduled practice time in the Rocky Mountains this week — but seven inches of snow in Denver led to the postponement of those outdoor practices. That is not a good sign for this team from the tropics, who are just 9-24-1 ATS in their last 35 games in October. Wyoming has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games in October — and the temperature is expected to drop below the freezing level tonight. Head coach Craig Bohl will have his team ready to play against this Rainbow Warriors team that upset them last week by a 17-13 score as a 4-point underdog. 25* College Football Game of the Month with the Wyoming Cowboys (142) minus the point(s) versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (141). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (322) minus the points versus North Carolina State (321). THE SITUATION: North Carolina (3-1) suffered their first loss of the season last Saturday with their 31-28 upset loss at Florida State as a 13.5-point favorite. North Carolina State (4-1) has won three games in a row with their 31-20 win over Duke last Saturday as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS MINUS THE POINTS: North Carolina was caught flat in the first half last week as they allowed a 25-yard interception that was returned for a touchdown en route to going into halftime with a 31-7 deficit. Head coach Mack Brown’s team almost came back but their rally fell just short despite outgaining the Seminoles by +26 net yards. The Tar Heels have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 31 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. North Carolina has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored. NC State benefited from an 8-yard blocked punt that they returned for a touchdown to defeat the Blue Devils last week. But the Wolfpack has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win. NC State has also failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 road games after winning at least three games in a row. The Wolfpack has not been overwhelming with their four victories. They only defeated Wake Forest by a field goal. They allowed 500 yards to Pittsburgh yet defeated the Panthers despite being outgained by 100 yards. And in their wins over Duke and Virginia, they benefited from forcing seven turnovers. They will be without starting quarterback Devin Leary who is out indefinitely with a fibula injury so it will be junior Bailey Hockman under center. NC State has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: NC State enters this game ranked 23rd in the nation with North Carolina ranked 14th. In the last ten seasons, this is just the sixth time that a game between two ranked teams outside the top-ten had the favorite laying more than 14 points. Those favorites are 4-1 ATS going into this afternoon clash. Trust the oddsmakers on this one. 20* CFB NC State-North Carolina ESPN Special with the North Carolina Tar Heels (322) minus the points versus North Carolina State (321). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (309) plus the points versus the UAB Blazers (310). THE SITUATION: UL-Lafayette (3-1) looks to rebound from their 30-27 upset loss at home to Coastal Carolina as a 9-point favorite back on October 14th. UAB (4-1) has won three straight games after their 37-14 victory over Western Kentucky last Saturday as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAGIN’ CAJUNS MINUS THE POINTS: UL-Lafayette should respond with a big effort tonight. The Ragin’ Cajuns have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games on the road after an upset loss to a conference rival. UL-Lafayette returned fourteen starters from the group that finished 11-3 with a 27-17 victory over Miami (OH) in the Lending Tree Bowl. Led by senior quarterback Levi Lewis, the Ragin’ Cajuns are averaging 456.7 total YPG over their last three contests. They also have averaged 7.55 and 7.57 Yards-Per-Play in their last two games — and they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in their last two games. Now UL-Lafayette goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 52 range. UAB may be due for a letdown after they crushed the Hilltoppers last week. The Blazers gave failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. UAB has also failed to cover the point in 6 straight games after a win by at least 20 points. And in their last 17 games after winning at least three games in a row, the Blazers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of these games. UAB rushed for 358 yards to help lead them to victory — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 37 points in their last game. They are playing without their starting quarterback Tyler Johnston III who is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury. Redshirt freshman Bryson Lucero was shaky under center for the Blazers as he completed only 15 of 31 passes for 141 yards with a touchdown and an interception while not contributing to the running game. UAB is at a significant disadvantage in this game at the quarterback position. This team returned eighteen starters from head coach Bill Clark’s team that finished 9-5 last season. They only had one victory over an FBS team with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. UAB has beaten three FBS teams this season in South Alabama, UTSA, and Western Kentucky last week — none of these teams have a record above .500. The Blazers' one loss was by 17 points at Miami (FL).

FINAL TAKE: UL-Lafayette has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in October. Look for them to pull away to win this game comfortably. 25* CFB Friday CBS Sports Network Game of the Month with the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (309) plus the points versus the UAB Blazers (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Appalachian State Mountaineers (312) minus the points versus the Arkansas State Red Wolves (311). THE SITUATION: Appalachian State (2-1) has won two straight games after their 52-21 win over Campbell as a 33.5-point favorite back on September 26th. Arkansas State (3-2) has won three of their last four games after their 59-52 win over Georgia State last Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Appalachian State lost their opening game in a very tough game at Marshall by a 17-7 score in a rescheduled game after COVID that might have featured the best two non-Power Five football teams this season. The Mountaineers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning two of their last three games. The break due to some cancellations and planned bye weeks should help this team under first-year head coach Shawn Clark since it helps make up for the limited fall prep. That said, Appalachian State did get in all thirteen of their spring practices. They also have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when playing with at least two weeks of rest and preparation. Their win over Campbell flew over the 54 point total — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a game that finished Over the Total. This is a team that returned thirteen starters from the team that finished 13-1 last year. They rushed for a whopping 404 yards against Campbell while outgaining them on the ground by 187 net yards. Appalachian State has then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least 200 yards. They are 5th in the nation by averaging 269.3 rushing YPG. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record on the road. And in their last 6 expected high scoring games with the total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range, the Mountaineers have covered the point spread in 5 times. Arkansas State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a game where both teams scored at least 30 points. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a game where they allowed at least 40 points. The Red Wolves defense looked very vulnerable against the Panthers as they surrendered 583 total yards in that game. Georgia State quarterback Cornelius Brown IV passed for 314 yards with three touchdowns while adding another 83 rushing yards with two more touchdowns on the ground. Arkansas State faces another explosive dual-threat quarterback tonight in Zac Thomas completed 62.7% of his passes last year for 2718 passing yards with 28 touchdown passes and just six interceptions. And while Red Wolves offense rotating between quarterbacks Logan Bonner and Layne Hatcher helped generate 609 total yards last Thursday, they now face a stout Appalachian State defense that is holding their opponents to just 19.3 PPG along with only 323.3 total YPG. As it is, Arkansas State has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after gaining at least 575 yards in their last game. Now the Red Wolves go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on October 9th in 2018 where Appalachian State won by 35-9 score. Arkansas State has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. 10* CFB Arkansas State-Appalachian State ESPN Special with the Appalachian State Mountaineers (312) minus the points versus the Arkansas State Red Wolves (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (166) minus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (165). THE SITUATION: Alabama (3-0) enter this game coming off their 63-48 victory over Ole Miss last Saturday as a 24-point favorite. Georgia (3-0) comes off a 44-21 win at home against Tennessee last Saturday as a 13-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CRIMSON TIDE MINUS THE POINTS: What’s up with the Alabama defense that surrendered a whopping 647 yards last week to the Rebels. The Tide returned five starters on a defense that had many freshmen forced into duty last season because of injuries. The front seven should be outstanding with the secondary work in progress with only one returning starter in junior cornerback Patrick Surtain. This inexperienced secondary got exposed by a Mississippi offense coached by a former offensive coordinator in Lane Kiffin who was able to (a) use a quick tempo to his advantage; (b) deploy a spread passing attack following the principles of Art Briles to expose this secondary with (c) a former blue-chip quarterback in Matt Corral who was also able to burn the Bama defense at times with his legs. I will mention this again below — but these are all tendencies that Georgia will not be able to replicate. That might have been the worst defensive performance for an Alabama team in the Nick Saban 14-year era. This unit will play better this week — and his teams have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The Crimson Tide has also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. But the encouraging developments for the Alabama faithful is the development of their offense under QB Mac Jones. The junior completed 28 of 32 passes against Ole Miss for 417 yards with two touchdowns. He is completing 79.5% of his passes while posting the second-best QBR in the nation. Jones was quite good playing for Tua Tagovailoa last season. He had two bad pick-sixes on the road at Auburn in a game that the Crimson Tide lost despite outgaining them by a 515-354 yardage margin. Alabama then sleepwalked in the first half in the Citrus Bowl against Michigan before rallying to crush the Wolverines by a 35-16 score. This will be the Crimson Tide’s biggest game since bitterly losing the Iron Bowl despite dominating that game. Expect this Alabama team to be very chippy. The Tide are very tough to beat when they have a powerful offense. Alabama averaged 9.89 Yards-Per-Play two weeks ago against Texas A&M for 544 yards before ripping off 10.2 YPP last week against Ole Miss for an incredible 723 yards. The Tide have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after gaining at least 525 yards in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 home games after averaging at least 7.25 YPP in two straight contests. Additionally, Alabama rushed for 306 yards last week — and they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 home games after rushing for at least 300 yards in their last game. Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread cover — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. The Bulldogs may have the best defense in the nation — but their eight starters that returned this season were torched for 37 points and 6.5 YPP when playing against LSU in the SEC Championship Game last season. The Crimson Tide have four returning starters on their offensive line with three seniors that will challenge the Bulldogs’ defensive line. They have a threatening passing attack that will stretch Georgia vertically and horizontally — and that should create huge rushing lanes for running back Najee Harris and Brian Robinson Jr.  That will likely be the difference for Alabama: Harris rushed for 206 yards with five touchdowns last week. He is averaging 3.1 yards-per-carry BEFORE contact (8th in the nation) and another 3.6 YPC AFTER contact (3rd in the nation). Led by Harris, the Tide offense leads the nation in both Success Rate and with their 6.5 rushing YPC average. The offensive firepower of Alabama simply cannot be matched by the Bulldogs offense which is the weak link in this game. Georgia only returned three starters from what was a pedestrian offense that was just 50th in scoring and 61st in total yardage. The young offensive line which remains a work-in-progress. The running backs and wide receivers are mostly a new group. And then there is the quarterback situation with walk-on Stetson Bennett the (current) starter. Bennett is playing because their two prized freshman recruits are not ready and former USC blue-chipper J.T. Daniels was only cleared to play two weeks ago. Head coach Kirby Smart likes Bennett because he is safe with the football while being capable with the passing attack — a junior level version of Jake Fromm. Well, that ain’t gonna get it done against Alabama. Bennett is small — just 5’11 and 190-lbs. He is a statue in the pocket. This is the profile of the quarterbacks that Saban defenses swallow and devour. The Bulldogs do not play with tempo and deploy a conventional pro-style offense that is designed to overwhelm lesser opponents. They are just 7th in the SEC on third-down conversion rate. I think first-year offensive coordinator Jeff Monken is fine — I think his impact on this game would have been stronger if it was being played in December rather than in their fourth game with this inexperienced offense. I suspect that Georgia will look to Daniels or another one of their quarterbacks before this game is over. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games as an underdog — and Alabama has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Saban has tested negative for COVID three straight times — so he has been cleared to be on the sidelines. Bottom-line: the Tide have won the last five meetings against Bulldogs teams with better offenses and certainly more threatening quarterbacks  — and this offense is catching the Bama defense on the wrong week after last week’s embarrassment. 25* CFB CBS-TV Game of the Month with the Alabama Crimson Tide (166) minus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (165). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (162) plus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (161). THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (3-1) enters this game coming off a narrow 21-17  win over UTEP last Saturday as a 14.5-point favorite. Marshall (3-0) is unbeaten after their 38-14 win at Western Kentucky last week as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Louisiana Tech has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up win as a favorite where they did not cover the point spread. They also have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Bulldogs managed only 210 yards of offense in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last contest. Head coach Skip Holtz can lean on his defense that limited the Miners to just 266 total yards. UTEP scored one of their touchdowns via a 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown. Louisiana Tech returns home where they have covered the point spread in 40 of their last 62 games when playing with six days or less of rest. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog. Marshall has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a win over a conference rival. The Thundering Herd has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread victory. Marshall forced three Hilltoppers’ turnovers last week for a +3 net turnover margin that made a big difference in that game. But the Thundering Herd have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after forcing at least three turnovers — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after enjoying a +3 or better turnover margin in their last game. Marshall has won the turnover battle in all three of their games this season — but the Regression Gods are fickle and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after having a +1 or better turnover margin in at least two straight games. And while the Thundering Herd has only allowed 21 points this season, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after not allowing more than 14 points in two straight games. Additionally, Marshall has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Thundering Herd has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 road games when laying 7.5 to 14 points. 10* CFB Marshall-Louisiana Tech CBS-Sports Network Special with the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (162) plus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (161). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Auburn Tigers (123) minus the points versus South Carolina Gamecocks (124). THE SITUATION: Auburn (2-1) enters this game coming off a narrow 30-28 win at home against Arkansas as a 13.5-point favorite last Saturday. South Carolina (1-2) won their first game of the season with their 41-7 blowout victory at Vanderbilt as a 14.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Auburn was flat last week after the hangover of losing their showdown with Georgia that likely ended their National Championship aspirations. But the Tigers should get back to business in this game against a Gamecocks team that will be overmatched in talent. Auburn has bounce-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Tigers are due to get some turnover luck as they have not earned a takeaway in two straight games despite having a strong defense. Auburn has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not forcing a turnover in their previous game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after not forcing a turnover in two straight contests. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games against teams with a losing record. Additionally, Auburn has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games when laying the points — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on the road when favored. South Carolina opened their season with losses to Florida and Tennessee before getting the opportunity to crush a bad Commodores team this season. The Gamecocks return home where they are just 1-3-1 ATS — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as an underdog. South Carolina has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games as a dog getting no more than 3 points.

FINAL TAKE: This is the first meeting between these two teams since 2014 — but the Gamecocks have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. South Carolina has lost sixteen of their eighteen games against teams who are ranked in the Will Muschamp era — they have lost eight of their last nine games at home when hosting a ranked team under his leadership. 10* CFB Auburn-South Carolina ESPN Special with the Auburn Tigers (123) minus the points versus South Carolina Gamecocks (124). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Houston Cougars (110) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (109). THE SITUATION: Houston (1-0) won their opening game of the season last Thursday with their 49-31 win over Tulane as a 6.5-point favorite. BYU (4-0) remained undefeated last Saturday with their 27-20 win over UTSA as a 34-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE HOUSTON PLUS THE POINTS: Houston started slowly in finally getting their season started last week as they surrendered two defensive touchdowns to the Green Wave to find themselves down 24-7 early in the 2nd quarter. The Cougars then demolished Tulane the rest of the way by outscoring them by a 42-7 margin while outgaining them by 476 to 211 yards. Houston has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 24 points in their last game. BYU is getting the hype with their perfect record and +32.8 net PPG average — but I think it is the other Cougars in this game that are undervalued. Second-year head coach Dana Holgorsen returned nineteen starters while adding a whopping 33 transfer players from FBS, FCS, and junior college programs from last year’s group that finished 4-8. Holgorsen brought tanking and the de-facto “process” to college football last season with eleven players choosing to redshirt before losing eligibility by playing in their fifth game. This is a team loaded with talent coming off their worst won/loss record in 15 years. Holgorsen seems to have his QB to operate his version of the Air Raid in junior Clayton Tune who completed 20 of 33 passes for 319 yards with two touchdowns last week. Quarterbacks tend to see a big jump in their second-season under Holgorsen and his system. Houston has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Cougars’ defense returns 93% of its productivity from last season while getting a bunch of new talent from transfers. Houston is a dangerous home dog as they are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games when getting the points. These Cougars have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in October — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games played on a Friday night. BYU has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread after a point spread loss. This team struggled against the Roadrunners as they struggled to finish drives in the Red Zone. This is troubling as they were 120th in the Red Zone last season. They also allowed UTSA to pass for 287 yards which were the most they allowed in the air all season. That is not a good sign when facing a Holgorsen Air Raid attack — and BYU has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. QB Zach Wilson did complete 21 of 30 passes for 292 yards in the win — but these Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Frankly, I have considered this Cougars team to be a paper tiger: they opened their season by crushing a Navy team that was not physically prepared to play given their limited workouts due to COVID before returning home for three straight games at home against Troy and Louisiana Tech before the UTSA “showdown” last week. BYU has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning at least two in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning three games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing their last two games at home. BYU is not a good frontrunner either — they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when favored and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road when laying the points.

FINAL TAKE: BYU has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games with the Total set at 63 or higher. Houston has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. 25* CFB Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Houston Cougars (110) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Tulane Green Wave (108) plus the points versus the SMU Tigers (107). THE SITUATION: Tulane (2-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 49-31 loss at Houston last Thursday as a 6.5-point underdog. SMU (4-0) returns to action after defeating Memphis back on October 3rd by a 30-27 score as a 1.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GREEN WAVE PLUS THE POINTS: Tulane should respond with a strong effort under head coach Willie Fritz as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss. They faced a Houston team that had weeks to prepare against their version of their run-oriented spread offense with it being the Cougars first game of the season given several COVID cancellations. The Green Wave managed to rush for only 70 yards on 45 carries in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after not rushing for at least 100 yards in their last game. Tulane only gained 211 yards in that game overall — yet they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last contest. The Green Wave have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home as an underdog. SMU has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after a win at home by 3 points or less. Now this team goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games away from home with the Total set at 63 or higher. The Mustangs have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games when favored. Defense could be an issue with this SMU team after they surrendered 585 total yards to the Tigers. The Mustangs surrendered 380 of those yards in the air — and they then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: SMU suffered two crushing season-ending injuries in that win over Memphis with both star wide receiver Reggie Roberson and starting running back T.J. McDaniel out the season. These Friday night games have not been great for the Mustangs either as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a Friday. 10* CFB SMU-Tulane ESPN Special with the Tulane Green Wave (108) plus the points versus the SMU Tigers (107). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Arkansas State Red Wolves (106) minus the points versus the Georgia State Panthers (105). THE SITUATION: Arkansas State (2-2) enters this game coming off a 50-27 win over Central Arkansas last Saturday as a 14.5-point favorite. Georgia State (1-1) returns to action after last playing on October 3rd when they upset East Carolina by a 49-29 score as a 2-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RED WOLVES MINUS THE POINTS: Arkansas State will have something to prove in this game after being upset in their last game against an FBS opponent on October 3rd in their 52-23 loss at Coastal Carolina as a 3.5-point favorite. That was a difficult situation for the Red Wolves as they were playing their third straight game away from home. The Chanticleers are an underrated football team as well — as UL-Lafayette found out on Thursday night when they were upset at home against them. Arkansas State returned fifteen starters from last year’s team that finished 8-5 in a season culminating with a 34-26 win in the Camellia Bowl against FIU. The Red Wolves proved their mettle last month with a 35-31 upset win at Kansas State as a 15-point underdog (and perhaps they were due for a letdown when facing Coastal Carolina in their next game three weeks later). Despite their 2-2 record, they are outgaining their opponents by +56.8 net YPG. They stay at home in Jonesboro for just their second game this season where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 home games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. Arkansas State has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set at 70 or higher. The Red Wolves have been playing high-scoring games with each of their four games totaling at least 61 combined points. These are the games that Arkansas State tends to thrive in under head coach Blake Anderson as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing four straight games where at least 60 combined points were scored. Anderson has yet to settle on a full-time quarterback with junior Logan Bonner the starter last season for the first four games before suffering a season-ending hand injury which presented the opportunity to former Alabama transfer Layne Hatcher to step in with the redshirt sophomore finish 8th in the FBS by averaging 294.6 passing YPG. Anderson is rotating both quarterbacks with them both combining to complete 61.2% of their passes for an offense that is averaging 342 passing YPG along with an 8.3 Yards-Per-Attempt average. Georgia State scored a defensive touchdown and a special teams touchdown against the Pirates to help them win their last game. They are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. They also gained 485 yards in that game but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 475 yards in their last game. The Panthers are using redshirt freshman Cornelius Brown as their quarterback who will be making his first start on the road with this being Georgia State’s first game away from their home in Atlanta at Georgia State Stadium which was previously Turner Field for the Atlanta Braves. Georgia State is just 2-10-2 ATS in their last 14 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road. The Panthers have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a game where at least 70 combined points were scored.

FINAL TAKE: Arkansas State will also be motivated to avenge a 52-38 upset loss at Georgia State last season where they were 6.5-point favorites. The Red Wolves have only had ten defensive players who have been available for all four of their games given injuries and COVID — but this unit will likely be at their healthiest for this game. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Game of the Year with the Arkansas State Red Wolves (106) minus the points versus the Georgia State Panthers (105). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET Wednesday, we will be playing the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (170) minus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (169). THE SITUATION: UL-Lafayette (3-0) takes the field again for the first time since September 26th with their 20-18 win over Georgia Southern as an 11.5-point favorite. Coastal Carolina (3-0) looks to build off their 52-23 upset win over Arkansas State on October 3rd as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAGIN’ CAJUNS MINUS THE POINTS: UL-Lafayette averaged 7.55 Yards-Per-play against the Eagles in their last game after averaging 6.82 YPP in their victory over Georgia State in the previous week — and they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in two straight games. The Ragin’ Cajuns returned seven starters on offense including quarterback Levi Lewis from last year’s team that finished 11-3 with a 27-17 win over Miami (OH) in the Lending Tree Bowl. This team opened the season with a big upset victory over Iowa State (the team that later upset Texas and lost to Oklahoma by one point) by a 31-14 score. The Ragin’ Cajuns committed only one turnover in their last game — and they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after not turning the ball over more than once in their last game. UL-Louisiana only scored 7 points in the first half against Georgia Southern after scoring only 7 points the previous week at Georgia State — but they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after not scoring more than a touchdown in the first half in two straight games. This team under head coach Billy Napier has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in October. Coastal Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after a win over a Sun Belt rival. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 37 points in their last game. The Chanticleers have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a game where at least 70 combined points were scored. Coastal Carolina did pass for 322 yards against the Red Wolves defense — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after passing at least 280 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: The Chanticleers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. Look for UL-Lafayette to win comfortably. 10* CFB Coastal Carolina-Louisiana ESPN Special with the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (170) minus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (169). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (318) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (317). THE SITUATION: Clemson (3-0) is unbeaten so far this season after their 41-23 victory over Virginia last week as a 27.5-point favorite. Miami (3-0) is also undefeated on the season after they crushed Florida State two weeks ago by a 52-10 score as a 12-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Hurricanes look to be an improved team after second-year head coach Manny Diaz modernized his offense by bringing in former SMU offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee to implement his version of an up-tempo spread offense while matching him with former Houston QB D’Eriq King who transferred to the program in the offseason. Miami is 7th in the nation by averaging 43.3 PPG which is taking a lot of pressure off their usually-talented defense. But after playing UAB, Louisville (now 1-3), and the Seminoles (who are a mess), this is a significant upgrade in competition. Yet the Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Miami generated 517 yards of offense against Florida State after gaining 485 yards against Louisville — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after gaining at least 475 yards in two straight games. We are supposed to believe that this Hurricanes’ defense is loaded — but they did lose 25.5 of their sacks from last season. There are warning signs that this is not an elite unit. Louisville — the team Georgia Tech beat last night — generated 516 yards against them two weeks ago while exposing the Miami defense against both the run (209 rushing yards allowed) and the pass (307 passing yards allowed). The Hurricanes are allowing 3.96 Yards-Per-Carry which is 10th in the ACC in run defense. Miami’s Achilles heel in their bigger games last season was their suspect offensive line that struggled in the run game while surrendering 51 sacks which was the most of all Power Five conference teams. Four starters return from that group who are now coached by Garin Justice. They face a handful of future NFL players from this Clemson front seven that has racked up 27 tackles-for-loss along with 13 sacks already this season. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after a win by at least 20 points. They also have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Tigers allowed Virginia to generate 417 yards last week in their comfortable victory — and that lackluster effort is probably just what defensive coordinator Brent Venables needs to get his unit’s attention in practice this week. Clemson tends to raise their level of play at this point in the season. Since 2015, Dabo Swinney’s team is just 12-12-1 ATS against FBS opponents in their opening games through the first weekend in October. The offense averages 34.2 PPG in those contests with 42% of their victories being by at least three touchdowns. Swinney is still learning his team while experimenting with some things — and the schedule is usually pretty soft. However, from the second week of October through the rest of the season since 2015, the Tigers are 29-15-2 ATS with a 40.8 PPG scoring average along with 51% of their victories being by at least three touchdowns. After their 21-20 scare against the Cavaliers last year, Clemson’s next eight regular-season victories were by an averaging winning margin of +42.1 PPG with the team outgaining their opponents by +348 net YPG. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games. Furthermore, Clemson is 6-1-1 ATS in October — and the Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games in October.

FINAL TAKE: This is Clemson’s first high-profile game since their 42-25 loss to LSU in the National Championship Game — so I expect Trevor Lawrence and company to be very motivated. This Miami team lacks big-game experience — and this is a program that has lost their last three opportunities to defeat a top-ten team. A paper tiger will be exposed to real tigers. 25* CBB ACC Game of the Month with the Clemson Tigers (318) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (317). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (352) minus the points versus the Texas-El Paso Miners (351). THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (2-1) looks to bounce back from their 45-17 loss at BYU last Friday as a 24-point underdog. UTEP (3-1) returns to the field again after they upset UL-Monroe on the road two weeks ago by a 31-6 score as a 10-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Skip Holtz should see his team rebound from what was a tough assignment in Provo last week (we had BYU). Louisiana Tech has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss by at least 20 points. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Louisiana Tech usually plays much better at home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as a favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in October. UTEP is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread victory. The Miners did generate 512 yards of offense against the War Hawks defense last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Now UTEP stays on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games.

FINAL TAKE: The Miners are just 7-23-1 ATS in their last 31 games against teams with a winning record. Louisiana Tech easily won last year’s meeting between these two teams by a 42-21 score where the Bulldogs were -17.5 road favorites. Expect another blowout win for an angry Louisiana Tech team. 10* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (352) minus the points versus the Texas-El Paso Miners (351). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (358) plus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (357). THE SITUATION: Western Kentucky (1-2) won their first game of the season last week with their 20-17 win at Middle Tennessee as a 7-point favorite. Marshall (2-0) takes the field again for the first time since September 19th where they upset Appalachian State by a 17-7 score as a 6-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HILLTOPPERS PLUS THE POINTS: Western Kentucky should build off their momentum as they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up win. They are also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread loss. The Hilltoppers’ defense should keep them in this game. They returned nine starters from last year’s group that was 22nd in the nation by allowing just 20.1 PPG — and they were also 24th in the country by limiting their opponents to only 335.5 total YPG. Western Kentucky has covered the point spread in 36 of their last 53 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 14 home games when getting the points. The biggest challenge for head coach Tyson Helton was deciding on his new starting quarterback — and losing all of spring practice to COVID-19 restrictions impaired that effort. Helton seems to have found his answer in Maryland grad transfer Tyrrel Pigrome who completed 21 of 36 passes for 188 yards for two touchdowns while adding another 55 rushing yards in last week’s win. Marshall has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring no more than 20 points in their last game. COVID has caused the cancellation of their scheduled games since that upset win over the Mountaineers — they may be rusty when facing hostile competition again tonight. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Thundering Herd have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games when laying the points.

FINAL TAKE: Western Kentucky will also be motivated to avenge a 26-23 loss to the Thundering Herd in last year’s meeting between these two teams as a 3.5-point underdog back on October 26th. Don’t be surprised if the Hilltoppers pull the upset — but take the points for some insurance. 20* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (358) plus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (357). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (306) plus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (305). THE SITUATION: Georgia Tech (1-2) has lost their last two games after their 37-20 upset loss at Syracuse as a 7.5-point favorite back on September 26th. Louisville (1-2) has also lost two straight games after their 23-20 loss at Pittsburgh as a 3-point underdog two weeks ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE YELLOW JACKETS: Georgia Tech did outgain the Orange by +96 net yards in the loss — but a -4 net turnover margin did them in with Syracuse returning an interception back for a 43-yard touchdown. Freshman QB Jeff Sims threw four interceptions in that game. Turnovers are holding this team back — they had five turnovers and a -3 net turnover margin in their previous game which was a loss to Central Florida. Second-year head coach Geoff Collins made protecting the football a high priority in the two weeks off since that game. His teams have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing the turnover battle in two straight games going back to his time as the head coach at Temple. The Yellow Jackets are much improved from last year’s group that finished the season just 3-9. Nineteen starters are back from that team with another year under their belt learning new systems on both sides of the football since the eleven-year Paul Johnson era. Sims is a highly-touted recruit with a big arm and great touch — and he is protected by an offensive line that added three transfers from SEC schools to add bulk to that group. Georgia Tech has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit loss to an ACC rival. And Collins’ teams in his coaching tenure have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a loss to a conference rival. Louisville managed only 223 yards of offense in their loss to Pitt two weeks ago. Junior QB Micale Cunningham struggled by completing only 9 of 21 passes for just 107 yards with three interceptions. That loss came on the heels of a high-profile loss to Miami (FL) —and the Cardinals have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after losing two games in a row against ACC foes. Louisville returned sixteen starters from last year’s 8-5 team in head coach Scott Satterfield’s first year with the program. But the Cardinals stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games away from home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a bye week.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia Tech opened their season with a 16-13 win against Florida State that has not looked as impressive given the Seminoles results since that loss. But don’t underestimate the deflation that the Florida State team felt from blowing their double-digit lead to lose that opening game against a conference opponent. Louisville’s lone win was a 35-21 win against Western Kentucky. But the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games in October — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in expected higher scoring games with the Total set at 63 or higher. 10* CFB Louisville-Georgia Tech ESPN Special with the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (306) plus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the BYU Cougars (104) minus the points versus the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (103). THE SITUATION: BYU (2-0) enters this game coming off their 48-7 win over Troy last Saturday as a 14-point favorite. Louisiana Tech (2-0) is also unbeaten in their first two games of the season after their 66-38 victory over Houston-Baptist last week as a 23.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: BYU should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. The Cougars had to wait three weeks for that game after their opening win at Navy by a 55-3 score on September 7th. BYU has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after winning their last two games by at least four touchdowns. This Cougars’ offense may be the best one in the five years of head coach Kalani Sitake's tenure at Provo. BYU generated 666 yards of offense while controlling possession for over 40 minutes against the Trojans — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Cougars are scoring 51.5 PPG so far this season while accumulating 622.0 total YPG — so they can certainly cover the point spread tonight. The BYU defense is also playing quite well by holding their first two opponents to just 10 combined points along with just 230 total yards of offense. The Cougars host this game where they have covered the point spread in 5 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Louisiana Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games on the road off a game where they covered the point spread as a double-digit favorite. But the defense remains an issue for this team that returned only two starters from last year’s group. The Bulldogs did not have spring practice because of COVID which is very important for the defense with a new coordinator in David Blackwell. They have allowed 34.0 PPG along with 447.07 total YPG this season.

FINAL TAKE: Louisiana Tech has not fared well when they appear vulnerable to getting blown out — they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games as an underdog getting 21.5 to 30 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games getting 21.5 to 28 points as the dog. 10* CFB Friday Night Discounted Deal with the BYU Cougars (104) minus the points versus the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (103). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida State Seminoles (395) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (396). THE SITUATION: Florida State (0-1) takes the field again after suffering a 16-13 upset loss at Georgia Tech two weeks ago on September 12th as a 13-point favorite. Miami (2-0) is unbeaten so far this season after they defeated Louisville on the road by a 47-34 score as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEMINOLES PLUS THE POINTS: Things started well in the first game under first-year head coach Mike Norvell. Junior quarterback James Blackman led the offense to 10 points in their first two possessions — but then things went off the rails. Blackman turned the ball over twice on fumbles while throwing an interception and two others drives were stopped by failed 4th down conversions. The Seminoles generated 438 yards of offense but scored only three more points the rest of the way to suffer the upset despite outgaining the Yellow Jackets by +221 net yards. Florida State should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after suffering an upset loss to an ACC rival — and they have covered the point spread in 3 straight games after a loss by a touchdown or less against a conference foe. The Seminoles have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a game where neither team scored more than 17 points. Florida State will be a bit healthier for this game with FAU transfer Meiko Dotson and Hamsar Nasirildeen bolstering their defensive backfield after missing the Georgia Tech game. The team will also be inspired to play for Norvell who is not making the trip to Miami given quarantine protocols after he tested positive for COVID-19. I do think think his absence will negatively impact the Seminoles. He was able to work with the team remotely to help establish game plans and purpose for this showdown. While Norvell always has called the offensive plays going back to his four-year tenure as the head coach at Memphis, offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham who was his OC and quarterbacks coach for two seasons at Memphis will take on those responsibilities. Dillingham was the offensive coordinator for Auburn last season. Tight ends coach Chris Thomsen will handle the head coaching responsibilities with his head coaching experience at Abilene Christian from 2005 to 2011. Miami may be due for an emotional letdown after their big won on national television last week against the Cardinals. The Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win over a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Miami has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Hurricanes defeated Louisville despite getting outgained by -31 net yards. Second-year head coach Manny Diaz has to be happy with his new-look offense behind transfer QB D’Eriq King as they generated 485 total yards last week — but Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. And while the Hurricanes also gained 495 yards against UAB in their opening game, they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after gaining at least 475 yards in two straight games. But the defense is an issue despite their 18 tackles-for-less that they have generated this season. Louisville torched them for 516 yards last week but it was the three takeaways and their +3 net turnover margin that made the winning difference in that game. Yet the Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not committing a turnover in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has not been a reliable favorite as of late as they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 home games when laying 10.5 to 14 points. Florida State has lost the last three meetings between these two teams after getting upset last year in Tallahassee by a 27-10 score as a 3-point underdog. Look for a close game between these in-state rivals. 25* College Football Game of the Month with the Florida State Seminoles (395) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (396). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (455) plus the points versus the University of Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (456). THE SITUATION: Middle Tennessee (0-2) is winless so far this season after getting crushed at home to Troy by a 47-14 score as a 1.5-point underdog last Saturday. UTSA (2-0) is unbeaten this season after they defeated Stephen F. Austin on Saturday by a 24-10 score as a 17-point favorite. This game was scheduled just last Saturday after Memphis canceled their game with the Roadrunners due to COVID-19 and the Blue Raiders had an open date today after Old Dominion canceled their football season last month.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: Middle Tennessee is struggling — having their two high-profile transfer running backs in Amir Rash from Florida State and Martell Pettaway from West Virginia opt-out to play this season left head coach Rick Stockstill without a credible rushing attack to complement dual-threat quarterback Asher O’Hara. Opposing defenses are not being punished for backing off defending the Blue Raiders ground game to pay more attention to O’Hara’s running threat or their passing attack. And the Middle Tennessee defense is getting pounded. The Blue Raiders managed just 241 yards of offense last week against the Trojans while being on offense for just 24:15 minutes of that game. Well, in Stockstill I trust to right-the-ship. Middle Tennessee has rebounded to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a loss by at least four touchdowns. And while the Blue Raiders were outgained by a whopping 255 yards last week, they have then covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after being outgained by at least 225 yards. Furthermore, Middle Tennessee has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last contest. The Blue Raiders have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to gain more than 275 yards in their last game. Better production on offense will take the pressure off the Middle Tennessee defense that allowed 496 yards last week. The Blue Raiders have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 475 yards in their last game. And while they also allowed 42 points to Army in the opening game of the season, they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 31 points in two straight games. UTSA has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Roadrunners remain a team that was just 4-8 last season — and those four victories were against teams that accrued only three victories against FBS opponents last season. UTSA has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games in September. Furthermore, the Roadrunners are just 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 home games against teams with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Don’t be surprised if junior quarterback Chase Cunningham gets more snaps under center for Middle Tennessee as he is a better pure passer than O’Hara. UTSA has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 home games when laying the points. 10* CFB Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (455) plus the points versus the University of Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the South Alabama Jaguars (235) plus the points versus the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (236). THE SITUATION: South Alabama (0-0) returns fifteen starters from last year’s hard-luck 2-10 team. Southern Mississippi (0-0) returns eleven starters from last year’s team that finished 7-6 after losing to Tulane in the Armed Forces Bowl by a 30-13 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE JAGUARS: Welcome to pandemic college football — and these are two teams that were not able to hold spring practices given COVID-19 concerns. It is always a challenge for players to learn new systems when the offensive and defensive coordinators change — but not to have spring practice to begin making these changes will likely lead to sloppy play. 5th-year head coach Jay Hopson has two new coordinators in offensive coordinator Matt Kubik and defensive coordinator Tony Pecoraro. This adjustment is a big challenge for the Golden Eagles. The defense also lost three of their top returning starters from each level of the defense with defensive end Jacques Turner, linebacker Racheem Boothe, and free safety Shannon Showers all decided to transfer after the pandemic hit to alter the college football season. The lack of a crown also takes away a big part of the Southern Miss home-field advantage — this team begins the season on a 21-8 straight-up run at “the Rock.” The Golden Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 home games when laying 14.5 to 17 points. The offense returns eight starters led third-year starting quarterback Jack Abraham. Interceptions are a problem for the senior has he threw fifteen picks last year with eleven coming in his final seven games — and that is not an ideal situation for a QB facing hostile competition for the first time with a new coordinator without the benefit of spring practice. Abraham will be without his key weapon from last year in wide receiver Quez Watkins who left early for the NFL after his junior season. South Alabama does have the benefit of continuity with offensive coordinator Kenny Edenfield and defensive coordinator Greg Stewart both back this season. This is a critical season for third-year head coach Steve Campbell who is just 5-19 in two seasons at South Alabama. The Jaguars were better than a two-win team last year. They outgained Nebraska in their opening game but lost due to giving up three touchdowns from the Cornhuskers defense and special teams. They lost to a good Georgia Southern team in overtime. They missed a field goal with 1:08 left in the game in a 2-point loss to Texas State. They outgained UL-Lafayette by a 467 to 391 margin a loss. And they closed out their season strong with an upset victory over Arkansas State in their home finale. Campbell may have found his answer at quarterback in sophomore Desmond Trotter who started the last four games of the season. The offense averaged 26 PPG along with 409 YPG under Trotter which was big improvements over the 14.6 PPG and 290.4 total YPG they were averaging in their first eight games. The defense returns six of the top eight tacklers from last season. Campbell also brought in eight junior college transfers including three from his former coaching location at Mississippi Gulf Coast who won the national junior college championship last season. South Alabama has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 road games in the first half of the season as an underdog. The Jaguars have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog getting 14.5 to 21 points.

FINAL TAKE: South Alabama has a big edge in continuity from last year — and I do not think the gap between these two teams was a large as the point spread suggests. Southern Miss has lost their last four home openers when hosting an FBS opponent. 10* CFB South Alabama-Southern Miss CBS Sports Network Special with the South Alabama Jaguars (235) plus the points versus the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (236). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, January 13th, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (283) plus the points versus the LSU Tigers (284) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Clemson (14-0) reached the National Championship game for the second straight season with their 29-23 win over Ohio State on December 28th as a 2.5-point favorite. LSU (14-0) joined them earlier that day with their 63-28 blowout win over Oklahoma as a 16.5-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE CLEMSON PLUS THE POINTS: The various Power Ranking quantitive analytical forecasts for this game have things closer to a pick ‘em — LSU entered the playoffs overvalued and those inclinations were rewarded with their blowout victory over the Sooners. Both semifinals games were an interesting example of how one or two big plays can dramatically swing the balance of the game. Clemson was on the verge of being blown out by the Buckeyes before a targeting penalty was called on a questionable hit on quarterback Trevor Lawrence. That resurrected a dead drive which the Tigers then scored a touchdown to completely reverse the momentum of that game. Oklahoma might have seen the same fortune if an obvious pass interference call was made to sustain an early drive for them — instead, the refs missed it and a frustrated defense was soon called for targeting themselves which not only fueled another LSU touchdown but resulted in an undermanned Sooners’ defense seeing a key defensive back ejected from the game. And the route was on. LSU has now covered the point spread in three straight games after gaining a whopping 532 total yards against an Oklahoma defense missing several key pieces via team suspension and then that in-game ejection. But LSU has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after covering the point spread in at least three straight games. I am still not sold on this LSU defense that has surrendered 29.3 PPG along with 429.6 total YPG in their seven games away from home. They held their last three opponents to just 15.0 PPG but those games were against a tapped-out Texas A&M team along with an offensively-challenged Georgia group before the Sooners. LSU allowed more than 450 yards in four of their games with Texas, Florida, Ole Miss, and Alabama all scoring at least 28 points against them. Clemson took their first big punch to the mouth this season but got off the mat to defeat an Ohio State team I think is at least as talented as LSU. The quants that measure in-season performance mostly rated Ohio and LSU as the better team — but those quantitative assessments do not take into account anything from last season. Dabo Swinney returned twelve starters from last year’s perfect 15-0 national champion squad including is a phenom at quarterback in Trevor Lawrence. I am just not going to hand out any demerits for the Tigers' failure to overly impress the College Football Playoff committee by failing to generate enough style points against teams like Syracuse and North Carolina early in their schedule. Given that Clemson was likely to reach the playoff even if they suffered an early-season loss, it was reasonable for Swinney to prime his team to play their best football in the second half of the season. Clemson has now allowed only 42 combined points in their last three playoff games over the last two seasons. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games in December — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 bowl games. Clemson has also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games against teams with a winning record including their last seven contests against winners — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher. The Tigers are rarely the underdog — but they have covered the point spread in 37 of their last 55 games when getting points. Swinney’s teams at Clemson have also covered the point spread in 8 of their 9 postseason games as an underdog while pulling the upset six times. Additionally, Clemson has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games played on a neutral field — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on a neutral field as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: LSU will have a geographical advantage with this game being played 81.3 miles away from their Baton Rouge campus. I just do not assign much value at all to the potential crowd noise that a team may enjoy on a neutral field. The familiar environment along with the routine of being at home play as much (or more) of a role for home-field advantage than potential crowd noise — especially in a dome where the audience cheering and yelling tends to get drowned out. However, I think the championship experience that this Clemson team enjoys over LSU’s players and coaching staff gives them another big edge. 25* CFB National Championship Game *A-List* Special with the Clemson Tigers (283) plus the points versus the LSU Tigers (284). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) RedHawks (279) plus the points versus the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (280). THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) (8-5) has won six of their last seven games after winning the Mid-American Conference Championship Game on December 7th with their 26-21 upset victory over Central Michigan as a 5.5-point underdog. Lafayette (10-3) saw their six-game winning streak snapped in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game on December 7th with their 45-38 loss at Appalachian State as a 5-point underdog. This game is being played at Land Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Alabama.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after pulling off an upset win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a victory over a Mid-American Conference rival. The RedHawks have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread win. And in their last 26 games after winning four or five of their last six games, Miami has covered the point spread in 20 of these contests. This team is better than their numbers suggest as they endured a brutal non-conference schedule that skewed their statistics with games at Ohio State, Iowa, and Cincinnati. The RedHawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog. Lafayette has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after a narrow loss by 7 points or less against a Sun Belt Conference opponent. The Ragin’ Cajuns are led by junior quarterback Levi Lewis who led an offense that completed 64.7% of their passes — but the RedHawks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams who complete at least 62% of his passes. Louisiana has failed to cover the point spread in their last 3 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 60% to 75% range. And while the Ragin’ Cajuns have scored at least 31 points in seven straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 31 points in three straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has covered the point spread in their last 4 games when playing on a neutral field. Look for the RedHawks to keep this game closer than expected as a double-digit underdog. 10* CFB Lending Tree Bowl ESPN Special with the Miami (OH) RedHawks (279) plus the points versus the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (278) plus the points versus the Tulane Green Wave (277) in the Armed Forces Bowl. THE SITUATION: Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (7-5) enters this bowl game off two straight losses after their 34-17 loss at FAU on November 30th as an 8-point underdog. Tulane (6-6) has lost three straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 37-20 loss at SMU as a 3-point underdog on November 30th. This game is being played at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Southern Mississippi has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Golden Eagles lost that game with the Owls due to quarterback Jack Abraham throwing for turnovers which accounted for their -4 net turnover margin in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after suffering a -4 or worse net turnover margin. Look for Abraham to respond with a strong effort after playing his worst game of the season. Abraham completed 67.5% of his passes for 3329 passing yards while averaging 8.7 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt. Southern Miss did hold Florida Atlantic to just 156 passing yards in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 170 passing yards in their last game. The Golden Eagles were solid when playing away from home this season where they were only outgained by -2.4 net YPG. Overall, Southern Miss outgained their twelve opponents by +59.7 net YPG. Tulane has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a double-digit loss to an American Athletic Conference rival. And while they have played three straight Unders, the Green Wave have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing at least three straight Unders. Tulane was a much better home team this season where they won five of their six games. But the Green Wave were 1-5 on the road where they were outscored by -11.2 PPG. Tulane also scored just 24.0 PPG over their final three games of the regular season which was -9.3 PPG below their season average. Head coach Willie Fritz has his team deploy a spread triple option that he brought over from his tenure at Georgia Southern — but the Golden Eagles will benefit from the extra time to prepare for this specific offense in this bowl game. As it is, it has been tough to run on this Southern Miss team as they held their opponents to averaging just 3.4 Yards-Per-Carry which translated into 111.8 rushing YPG which was 14th lowest in the nation. And while the Golden Eagles average 8.8 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt overall this season, the Green Wave have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games against opponents that average at least 8.5 YPA. Furthermore, Tulane is just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games played on grass.

FINAL TAKE: The Green Wave have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games against opponents with a winning percentage in the 51% to 60% percent range. 10* CFB Armed Forces Bowl ESPN Special with the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (278) plus the points versus the Tulane Green Wave (277). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Nevada Wolf Pack (276) plus the points versus the Ohio Bobcats (275) in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. THE SITUATION: Nevada (7-5) looks to bounce-back from their 33-30 upset loss to UNLV on November 30th as a 6.5-point favorite. Ohio (6-6) has won two games in a row with their 52-3 win over Akron as a 27.5-point favorite on November 26th. This game is played on Boise State’s blue home field.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLF PACK PLUS THE POINTS: The Bobcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after a win by at least 20 points. Ohio has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. And while the Bobcats generated 603 yards of offense against the Zips, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Ohio has been an unreliable favorite as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when laying the points. Nevada is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. The Wolf Pack are getting better play from their freshman quarterback Carson Strong who completed 100 of 151 passes over the last month of the season for 951 yards. The Nevada defense also improved as the season went on as they allowed only 24.7 PPG along with 350.7 total YPG which was -7.4 PPG and -47.0 net YPG below their season average. The Wolf Pack are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on a neutral field — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.

FINAL TAKE: The Nevada defense will be undermanned with suspensions removing three of their top ten tacklers. But as an underdog in the touchdown range, the Wolf Pack should still keep this game close. 10* CFB Famous Idaho Potato Bowl with the Nevada Wolf Pack (276) plus the points versus the Ohio Bobcats (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Indiana Hoosiers (288) plus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (287) in the Gator Bowl. THE SITUATION: Indiana (7-5) snapped a two-game losing streak to end the season with their 44-41 win in overtime at Purdue on November 30th as a 7-point favorite. Tennessee (8-4) has won five in a row after their 28-10 win over Vanderbilt as a 24-point favorite on November 30th as a 24-point favorite. This game is being played at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HOOSIERS PLUS THE POINTS: Indiana has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Hoosiers have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win on the road against a conference rival. And while Indiana has won five of their last seven games, Indiana has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Some bettors have been scared off this Hoosiers team because they have not defeated a team with more than five victories this season — but all five of their losses were against teams that were ranked at the time. Indiana has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after winning three straight games against SEC rivals. The Volunteers outgained the Commodores by +138 net yards in their last game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +125 net yards. And while Tennessee had covered the point spread in six straight games before their contest with Vanderbilt, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Additionally, the Volunteers have played four straight Unders — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after playing at least three straight Unders. Furthermore, Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams outside the SEC. And in their last 13 games as the favorite, the Volunteers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee will be without their top wide receiver and emotional leader of the team in Javan Jennings who will be suspended for the first half of this game. Expect a close one where the Hoosiers have the opportunity to pull the upset. 10* CFB Gator Bowl ESPN Special with the Indiana Hoosiers (288) plus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (287). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (269) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (270) in the Sugar Bowl. THE SITUATION: Baylor (11-2) enters this bowl game coming off a 30-23 loss to Oklahoma as a 9-point underdog in the Big 12 Championship Game back on December 7th. Georgia (11-2) comes off a 37-10 loss to LSU on December 7th as a 7.5-point underdog in the SEC Championship Game. This game is being played in the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: The reports I am getting from the Big Easy is that this Georgia team has shown little from their body language and attitude since arriving for this bowl game that they have recovered from that devastating loss to the Tigers. The Bulldogs are a peculiar football program in that they perceive themselves as a true blue blood despite not having the historical resume to back up that claim. This is a team that expected to be in the College Football Playoff after making the National Championship Game two years ago. After losing in the SEC Championship Game last season, they were completing unmotivated to play Texas in last year’s Sugar Bowl and were upset by a mediocre Longhorns team by a 28-21 score. My initial reaction to their opportunity to return to New Orleans for another Sugar Bowl this season was that this was their chance for redemption. But the attrition rate of players unable or unwilling to play in this game speaks loudly about the importance (or lack thereof) to play this Baylor team that was 1-11 last year. Georgia is missing three starters on their offensive line with two skipping the game for the NFL and one player suspended due to academics. The Bulldogs are also thin at wide receiver with their star, Lawrence Cager, likely out with the ankle injury that kept him out for the previous two games, along with Dominick Black with a torn ACL that he suffered versus LSU. Defensive tackle Tyler Clark along with running back Brian Herrien did not make the trip. And running back D’Andre Swift is questionable with the bruised shoulder he suffered against Georgia Tech that limited him to five snaps against LSU. For a team that was already lacking elite talent at the skill positions, these losses are devastating. The Bulldogs have averaged just 348.7 total YPG over their last three games which is -61.5 net YPG below their season average. Junior quarterback Jake Fromm may be hiding an injury himself — or he simply is suffering from a lack of confidence that has worsened with the lack of help from his teammates. After being the highest-graded quarterback by Pro Football Focus after the first six weeks of the season, Fromm has completed only 47% of his passes over his last five games. The defense has played at an elite level for most of the season — but they were exposed by LSU who generated 481 yards against them QB Joe Burrow passing for 349 yards. Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after allowing at least 325 passing yards in their last game. The Bulldogs have not had more than one takeaway in eight games as well — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not getting more than one turnover in five straight contests. This is not a good matchup for Georgia either. The Bears average 6.4 Yards-Per-Play along with averaging 6.4 Yards-Per-Carry — and they have both failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams that average at least 4.75 YPC but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games against opponents who average at least 5.9 YPP. After enduring a 1-11 season last year, this Baylor team is excited with this opportunity to play in prime-time in a New Year’s Six Bowl game. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. And while the Bears managed only 265 total yards against the Sooners, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. Oklahoma outgained Baylor by -168 net yards — but Baylor has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after being outgained by at least -125 yards. The Bears have an outstanding pass rush which will challenge this Bulldogs’ offensive line that will be elevating three backups to starting positions. Baylor has 43 sacks this season and PFF ranks their pass rush as the 14th best in the nation. The Bears also generated 23 sacks rushing just three players which leaves eight defenders against the pass in those situations. Moving forward, Baylor has covered the point spread in 35 of their last 52 games against teams with a winning record. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 bowl games.

FINAL TAKE: Baylor has covered the point spread in 24 of their last 33 games as an underdog — and this includes them covering the point spread in 8 straight games with five outright upset victories in that span. And head coach Matt Rhule has seen his teams cover the point spread in 34 of the last 48 games he has coached as the dog while leading his team to sixteen upset wins. 10* CFB Sugar Bowl ESPN Special with the Baylor Bears (269) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (270). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Wisconsin Badgers (267) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (268) in the Rose Bowl. THE SITUATION: Wisconsin (10-3) saw their four-game winning streak snapped in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 7th with their 34-21 loss to Ohio State. Oregon (11-2) has won their last two games with their 37-15 upset win over Utah as a 6.5-point underdog in the Pac-12 Championship Game on December 6th. The Rose Bowl is played in Pasadena, California.

FINAL TAKE: The Ducks have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams outside the Pac-12 — and the Badgers have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the Big Ten. 10* CFB Rose Bowl ESPN Special with the Wisconsin Badgers (267) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (268). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Minnesota Golden Gophers (265) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (266) in the Outback Bowl. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (10-2) has lost two of their last three games with their 38-17 loss to Wisconsin as a 3-point underdog on November 30th. Auburn (9-3) has won two straight games after their 48-45 upset win over Alabama as a 3.5-point underdog on November 30th. This game is being played on Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN GOPHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Look for the Tigers to suffer from the hangover of their huge win over their arch rivals in the Iron Bowl. Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a win at home over an SEC rival. And while the Tigers have covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Auburn has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when played on a neutral field with the Total set in the 52.5 to 56 point range. Minnesota has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a double-digit loss at home. The Golden Gophers have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game. Moving forward, Minnesota is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams outside the Big Ten.

FINAL TAKE: This Golden Gophers team has been a feisty underdog under head coach P.J.Fleck. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as a dog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral field as an underdog. 10* CFB Outback Bowl ESPN Special with Minnesota Golden Gophers (265) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (266) in the Outback Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (262) minus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (261) in the Alamo Bowl. THE SITUATION: Utah (11-2) looks to pick themselves off the after laying the proverbial egg in the Pac-12 Championship Game in their 37-15 upset loss to Oregon on December 6th. Texas (7-5) snapped a two-game losing streak to close out their regular season with their 49-24 win over Texas Tech as a 9.5-point favorite on November 29th. This game is being played on a neutral field in San Antonio.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES MINUS THE POINTS: Utah should respond with a strong effort with this high-profile game on New Year’s Eve to remove the stink from their embarrassing loss to the Ducks. The Utes have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Utah has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after suffering an upset loss. The Utes were serious contenders to make the College Football Playoff because they a legitimate outstanding team this season. They lead the nation by allowing only 256.2 total YPG — and they are 4th in the nation by only giving up 13.2 PPG. The offense is as prolific as any unit in the Kyle Whittingham era as they are 25th in the FBS by scoring 34.0 PPG. Senior quarterback Ty Huntley if 5th in the FBS in Passing Efficiency while proving his offense with a threat with his legs. Senior running back Zack Moss averages 6.2 Yards-Per-Carry. The Utes have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Utah has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games as a favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games when laying 3.5 to 10 points. Texas may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Expectations were sky-high for this team after last year’s bowl game where the Longhorns upset Georgia. In hindsight, more attention should have been paid that the Bulldogs were completely disinterested in that game after failing to make the College Football Playoff before seeing a handful of their best players skip the game to prepare for the NFL draft. Head coach Tom Herman has been very dangerous when motivating his team when they are playing the role of the underdog — his teams are 11-5 ATS with ten upset victories when getting the points. But he seems to be using this game entirely to prepare for an important 2020 season as he sacked both his offensive coordinator Tim Beck and his defensive coordinator Todd Orlando. This lack of continuity will be very difficult for his team to overcome even with a few extra weeks to prepare. As it is, the Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games played on a neutral field wit the Total set in the 52.5 to 56 point range. Texas has been fortunate with turnovers to close out their regular season as well as they have only committed two turnovers (in separate games) over their last four contests. But the Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after playing four straight games where they did not commit more than one turnover.

FINAL TAKE: I would worry about some teams not taking this bowl game seriously after suffering the emotional letdown of not making the College Football Playoff — but not a Whittingham-coached team. Whittingham is 11-2 straight-up in bowl games — and the Utes have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 bowl games. The route may be on … lay the points. 25* College Football Game of the Month with the Utah Utes (262) minus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (261). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Georgia State Panthers (259) plus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (260) in the Arizona Bowl. THE SITUATION: Georgia State (7-5) stumbles into this bowl game having lost three of their last four games after their 38-10 loss at Georgia Southern as a 6.5-point underdog back on November 30th. Wyoming (7-5) has also lost three of their last four games with their 20-6 loss at the Air Force as a 13.5-point underdog on November 30th. This game is being played on a neutral field in Tuscon.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Georgia State has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Panthers offense has been slowed down since quarterback Dan Ellington suffered a partially torn ACL in the ninth game of the season against Louisiana-Monroe. Ellington has played through the injury but it limited his mobility. The month off since their loss to the Eagles should help the healing in the process — but Ellington is going to have to defeat the Cowboys with his passing. Ellington did have two 300-yard passing games this season en route to his 2291 passing yards — and he threw 21 touchdown passes. Wyoming has a great defense but they were vulnerable against the pass as they surrendered 265.1 passing YPG which was 112th in the nation. Georgia State has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games against teams that allowed at least 250 passing YPG. The Panthers also need to play better on defense after allowing Georgia Southern to rush for 279 yards — but they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. Wyoming managed only 225 total yards in their loss to the Falcons in their last game. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. Furthermore, Wyoming has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games after a game where no more than 29 combined points were scored. Wyoming has their own issues at QB after redshirt freshman Sean Chambers suffered a season-ending knee injury. Chambers was effective with his legs as he averaged 6.7 YPC which accounted for 567 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. Redshirt sophomore Tyler Vander Waal was ineffective in his absence under center with things being so bad that he decided to enter the transfer portal after the Air Force game. That leaves little-used freshman Levi Williams as the Cowboys’ quarterback for this game. Wyoming has scored only 14.7 PPG while averaging just 280.3 total YPG over their last three games. The Cowboys were a much better team at home where they were 6-1 in the high altitude air in Laramie. But this team was just 1-5 on the road where they only scored 18.3 PPG while averaging only 294.5 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Wyoming failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. A Georgia State team focused on passing the football may be a blessing in disguise for them because they won four of their five games when Ellington passed for at least 200 yards. 10* CFB Arizona Bowl CBS Sports Network Special with the Georgia State Panthers (259) plus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (260). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Navy Midshipmen (258) minus the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (257) in the Liberty Bowl. THE SITUATION: Navy (10-2) has won their last three games after their 31-7 triumph over Army as an 11.5-point favorite on December 14th. Kansas State (8-4) has won their last two games after their 27-17 upset victory over Iowa State as a 4-point underdog on November 30th. This game is being played on a neutral field in Memphis.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MIDSHIPMEN MINUS THE POINTS: Navy is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a point spread win. The Midshipmen should not be taken lightly in bowl games as they have covered the point spread in 5 straight bowl game appearances. One of the reasons for this success is that the spread triple option travels — Navy scored 38.5 PPG in their six road games while averaging 446.5 total YPG in those contests. The Midshipmen also play very solid defense — they ranked 22nd in the nation by holding their opponents to just 326.2 total YPG. Navy held their opponents to -89 YPG below their opponent’s season average. They are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December — and they are 3-1-1 in their last 5 games against teams outside the American Athletic Conference. They have outscored their last three opponents by +15.4 net PPG. And they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games as the favorite. Kansas State may be due for a letdown as they have registered two straight upset victories with a 30-27 win at Texas Tech as a 2-point dog preceding their upset victory over the Cyclones to close out the regular season. But that was 31 days ago which risks them being rusty against an opponent that played a very big game for them two weeks ago. The Wildcats can struggle to move the football as they are just 93rd in the nation by averaging 374.7 total YPG. Kansas State was also outgained in their five road games by -93.6 net YPG. The Wildcats averaged just 332.0 total YPG away from home which was -42.7 net YPG below their season average — and they surrendered 425.6 YPG on the road which was -61.6 YPG more than they allowed overall this season. Kansas State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning two of their last three games. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 5 games played on a neutral field as an underdog, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread 4 times.

FINAL TAKE: The service academies have won ten of their last twelve bowl games. While it would be foolish to just zombie bet on Army, Navy, or the Air Force in bowl games, the success of these programs in bowl games comes from their consistency of play from week-to-week along with using spread triple-option rushing attacks that are not weather dependent to succeed. And while their opponents benefit from the extra weeks to prepare, these are sophisticated offensive attacks that leave play-callers plenty of options to counter against the defensive adjustments while expanding the plays in the playbook. 10* CFB Liberty Bowl ESPN Special with the Navy Midshipmen (258) minus the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (257). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Florida State Seminoles (255) plus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (256). THE SITUATION: Florida State (6-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on November 30th with their 40-17 loss at Florida as a 17-point underdog. Arizona State (7-5) has won their last two games with their 24-14 win over Arizona on November 30th as a 12-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEMINOLES PLUS THE POINTS: Florida State managed only 250 yards against the Gators offense — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. And while the Seminoles surrendered 390 passing yards to Florida, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. This team is playing under interim head coach Odell Haggins who took over the team after Willie Taggart was sacked in November. The players play hard under Haggins as he is 4-1 as an interim head coach with Florida State which includes a 42-13 victory over Southern Mississippi in the Independence Bowl two years ago. Over their last three games, the Seminoles have scored 34.3 PPG while averaging 433.0 total YPG which is +5.6 PPG and +29.8 net YPG above their season average. Florida State is 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 bowl games — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 bowl games as an underdog. Arizona State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. The Sun Devils secured five wins against Power-Five teams this season but with a low margin of victory in those contests of just +5.4 PPG. This team was outgained this season overall in yardage behind an offense that was just 89th in the nation by averaging a mere 379.6 total YPG. Arizona State scored only 20.6 PPG while averaging just 301.6 total YPG in their five games on the road. Pass defense is also an issue for this team as they ranked 115th in the nation by allowing 270.1 passing YPG. These characteristics make the Sun Devils unreliable favorites as they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games when laying the points. Arizona State has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the Pac-12 — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field as the favorite. The Sun Devils have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 bowl games.

FINAL TAKE: Both teams are missing significant players in this game who decided to skip for preparation for the NFL draft. Florida State will be without a scholarship player at running back given injuries along with Cam Akers' decision to bypass the game. The Seminoles have been jumpstarted on offense as of late by quarterback Jordan Davis who they have used in their running game. But Arizona State will be without their 1000-yard rusher in Eno Benjamin and 1000-yard wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk who are skipping this game for the NFL draft. The Sun Devils’ losses are probably the bigger blow for an offense that was not much without them. 10* CFB Sun Bowl CBS-TV Special with the Florida State Seminoles (255) plus the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (256). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Virginia Tech Hokies (286) minus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (285) in the Belk Bowl. THE SITUATION: Virginia Tech (8-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on November 29th with their 39-30 upset loss at Virginia as a 1.5-point favorite. Kentucky (7-5) has won three in a row after their 45-13 win over Louisville as a 3.5-point favorite on November 30th. This game is being played in Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HOKIES MINUS THE POINTS: Virginia Tech will have something to prove on defense in what will be the last game for their legendary defensive coordinator Bud Carson before he enters retirement. The Hokies surrendered 492 yards to the Cavaliers with 311 of those yards coming in the air. Virginia Tech has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game — and they are 6-0-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Despite that performance against Virginia, the Hokies defense steadily improves as they held their last four opponents to just 276 YPG while keeping these foes -115 YPG below their season average. This is a team that bottomed out early after a 45-10 loss at Duke in late September. The team moved to sophomore Hendon Hooker under center after that and he led the team to six wins in seven starts while leading the offense to average 36.8 PPG. Hooker completed 62.1% of his passes while throwing 11 touchdown passes to just two interceptions and he added another five touchdowns with his legs. Virginia Tech has covered the point spread in five of their last six games — and they have then covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. Additionally, the Hokies have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December. Kentucky has won five of their last seven games while covering the point spread in six of their last seven contests. But the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after winning five or six of their last seven games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. This Kentucky coaching staff had to scramble after the season-ending injury to junior quarterback Terry Wilson — but they found an answer in converting speedster wide receiver Lynn Bowden to the QB position. This tactic worked as having their best offensive player touching the ball on every snap helped them in those final seven games with his 1235 rushing yards propelling the offense to average a whopping 352 rushing YPG. But Bowden and company will now be facing a stour Hokies run defense that ranked 27th in the nation by allowing 123.3 rushing YPG — and giving Carson three weeks to prepare for this system in his swan song should mean this Virginia Tech defense will be very prepared. Kentucky has scored 95 points in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 42 points in two straight games. The Wildcats are limited in their passing attack behind Bowden as they averaged just 117.1 passing YPG which is 126th in the nation. This team also scored just 14.5 PPG along with 325.7 total YPG in their four true road games.

FINAL TAKE: Kentucky has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral field. Virginia Tech has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field. 10* CFB Belk Bowl ESPN Special with the Virginia Tech Hokies (286) minus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (285) in the Belk Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Virginia Cavaliers (251) plus the points versus the Florida Gators (252) in the Orange Bowl. THE SITUATION: Virginia (9-4) looks to bounce-back from their 62-17 loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game where they were 29-point underdogs back on December 7th. Florida (10-2) has won three straight games with their 40-17 win over Florida State as a 17-point favorite on November 30th. This game is being played on a neutral field at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS PLUS THE POINTS: Virginia has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. And while they surrender 211 rushing yards to the Tigers in the ACC Championship Game, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. Virginia has a potent offense in the fourth season under head coach Bronco Mendenhall. Virginia was 42nd in the nation by averaging 32.4 PPG. They are led by senior quarterback Bryce Perkins who led the ACC by averaging 304.6 total YPG from his passing and running. He completed 27 of 43 passes for 266 yards against Clemson while adding another 58 rushing with his legs. Over their last three games, the Cavaliers have averaged 459.3 total YPG which is +69.0 net YPG above their season average. Virginia has played five straight games Over the Total — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after playing at least three straight Overs. The Cavaliers have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with at least two weeks of preparation. Florida has covered the point spread in five of their last seven games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests. The Gators have not allowed more than 256 total yards in three straight games as well — but they have failed to then cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games are not allowing more than 275 yards in three straight contests. Florida has become primarily a passing team on offense behind junior Kyle Trask — they are 16th in the nation by averaging 300.4 passing YPG. But the Gators have not rushed for more than 77 yards in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in two straight contests. Florida was not as dominant on the road this year where they only outscored their opponents by +3.2 PPG while being outgained in those six games by -8.0 net YPG. The Gators have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing with at least two weeks of rest and preparation.

FINAL TAKE: Florida scored an emotional 41-15 victory over Michigan in last year’s Peach Bowl in what was revenge to two recent losses to the Wolverines. Now after a 10-2 season where they lost their two biggest games against LSU and Georgia, being a two-touchdown favorite may be uninspiring for this team now. The Gators have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral field. 10* CFB Orange Bowl ESPN Special with Virginia Cavaliers (251) plus the points versus the Florida Gators (252) in the Orange Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Illinois Fighting Illini (249) plus the points versus the California Golden Bears (250) in the RedBox Bowl. THE SITUATION: Illinois (6-6) stumbled into the postseason with two straight losses after suffering a 29-10 upset loss at home to Northwestern as a 6.5-point favorite back on November 30th. California (7-5) has won their last two games with their 28-18 upset win at UCLA on November 30th as a 1-point underdog. This game will be played in Levi’s’ Stadium in Santa Clara.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING ILLINI PLUS THE POINTS: Illinois managed only 160 yards of offense in that loss to the Wildcats which was their de-facto bowl game in what was otherwise a very disappointing season for them. The Illini were only on the field of 18:42 minutes in that game with Northwestern controlling time of possession. But Illinois has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to generate at least 275 yards of offense in their last game. They also have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after playing their last two games against Big Ten opponents. This has been a breakthrough season in the fourth season under head coach Lovie Smith with this team pulling off upset victories over Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Purdue while also playing Michigan and Iowa on the road pretty tough. The Illini have covered the point spread in 5 straight games as the underdog. Injuries have held back this team but they look to get their best quarterback back in Brandon Peters for this game after clearing the concussion protocol that kept him out in that loss to Northwestern. The former Michigan QB had 17 touchdown passes to just 7 interceptions in ten games while posting a nice QBR of 129.7. But the underappreciated element of this Illini team is their opportunistic defense that generated 22 sacks with 18 forced fumbles, 12 interceptions and four defensive touchdowns. Smith was the defensive coordinator for a St. Louis Rams’ team that went to the Super Bowl before taking the Chicago Bears to a Super Bowl as their head coach — he knows a thing or two about coaching defense. Illinois has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. The Fighting Illini have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral field. Cal may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win. The Golden Bears also had injury issues at quarterback with them being a perfect 6-0 when sophomore QB Chase Garbers played the entire game. While Garbers is healthy, I am not sure he will still not split time between him and fellow (graduate transfer) redshirt sophomore Devon Modster who has potential after transferring from UCLA. The Bears benefited from four close wins decided by one scoring possession this season. They are an unreliable favorite laying close to a touchdown when considering they were outscored this season while being outgained by -62.5 net YPG. While their defense held their opponents to just 22.1 PPG which was 33rd in the nation, they surrendered 385.5 total YPG which was a bit out of whack with those scoring numbers since that total defensive mark drops to 63rd best in the FBS. Cal allowed 415.8 total YPG in their six games away from home where they were outgained by -97.3 YPG. They also were outgained by -36.0 net YPG over their last three games despite winning two of them. The Golden Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as the favorite. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a neutral field.

FINAL TAKE: Cal has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 bowl games. This contest will be played within an hour of their Berkeley campus. But if you think a big crowd is coming from their students over Christmas break — and that they will make enough noise to play more than a small role in this game — well, I have some property in the Florida swamplands that you may be interested in purchasing. Much of a home-field advantage comes from actually playing on a team’s home field — and this game is being played in the home of the 49ers. 25* CFB Fox-TV Game of the Year with the Illinois Fighting Illini (249) plus the points versus the California Golden Bears (250) in the RedBox Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Western Michigan Broncos (245) plus the points versus the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (246) in the First Responder Bowl. THE SITUATION: Western Michigan (7-5) looks to bounce-back from a 17-14 upset loss at Northern Illinois as a 10-point favorite that ended their regular season on November 26th. Western Kentucky (8-4) has won their last three games after their 31-26 win over Middle Tennessee on November 30th as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: That was an excruciating loss for head coach Tim Lester’s team as it cost them an opportunity to play in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game. Western Michigan defeated both of those participants, Miami (OH) and Central Michigan by at least two touchdowns so there is a case to be made that they were the best team in the conference overall this season. But the seventeen returning starters from last years' 7-6 team have the opportunity to improve on that record while redeeming themselves from their ugly 49-18 loss to BYU in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. The Broncos should respond with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Western Michigan has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss to a MAC opponent — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival. Furthermore, the Broncos have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game. Western Michigan did outgain the Huskies in that game by +98 net yards while also winning the first down battle by a 16 to 9 margin. The offense is led by senior Jon Wassink who leads an attack that finished 19th in the nation by averaging 457.3 total YPG while also averaging 24th in the FBS by scoring 34.2 PPG. Defense was the Achilles’ heel for this team — but they did hold their last three opponents to 366.7 YPG which was -47.9 net YPG below their season average. Wassink should get plenty of time to throw this afternoon behind an offensive line that Pro Football Focus grades as the 28th best pass protection unit in the nation. PFF also grades the Hilltoppers’ pass rush as just 80th best in the country. Western Kentucky surrendered 301 passing yards in their victory over the Blue Raiders a month ago — and they are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. This team under first-year head coach Tyson Helton pulled off five upset wins this season while defeating four teams that qualified for bowl games. But the group might be satisfied with their accomplishment — and they have a rookie head coach leading them into this bowl game. The Western Kentucky defense has been shaky down the stretch as they allowed their last three opponents to average 398.0 YPG which was +60.2 net YPG above their season average.

FINAL TAKE: The Hilltoppers relished in the role of the underdog this season after going just 3-9 in last year’s disastrous campaign — but this program has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games as the favorite. 10* CFB First Responder Bowl with the Western Michigan Broncos (245) plus the points versus the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (246). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (243) minus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (244) in the Fiesta Bowl College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Clemson (13-0) remained undefeated this season with their 62-17 win over Virginia as a 29-point favorite in the ACC Championship Game on December 7th. Ohio State (13-0) won the Big Ten Championship that same day with their 34-21 win over Wisconsin as a 16.5-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The quants that measure in-season performance mostly rate the Buckeyes as the better team entering this game — but those quantitative assessments do not take into account anything from last season. Dabo Swinney returned twelve starters from last year’s perfect 15-0 national champion squad including is phenom at quarterback in Trevor Lawrence. I am just not going to hand out any demerits for the Tigers failure to overly impress the College Football Playoff committee by failing to generate enough style points against teams like Syracuse and North Carolina early in their schedule. Given that Clemson was likely to reach the playoff even if they suffered an early season loss, it was reasonable for Swinney to prime his team to play their best football in the second half of the season. The Tigers displayed the balance on offense that will make it very hard for any defense to slow them down this postseason. In generating 619 yards of offense against the Cavaliers, Clemson rushed for 211 yards while adding another 408 yards in the air. Lawrence leads a loaded offense that is 4th in the nation that scores 46.5 PPG while also ranking 3rd in the nation by averaging 547.7 total YPG. Lawrence has not thrown an interception since October 19th while producing the highest Pro Football Focus quarterback grade over the last four weeks of the regular season in all of college football. Since Week Nine of the regular season, Lawrence leads the nation with 20 touchdown passes while averaging 11.1 Yards-Per-Passing Attempt which is also best in the nation. His 214 Efficiency Rating over that span is also best in the nation. Where Lawrence has improved from leading the Tigers to the national championship as a freshman was with his mobility — he rushed for 407 yards on 77 carries while reaching the end zone seven times. Over their last three games, Clemson is scoring 50.7 PPG. The Tigers also have the nation’s top statistical defense that holds their opponents to just 10.6 PPG along with only 244.7 total YPG. Clemson allowed only 19 combined points in their two playoff wins last season. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games in December — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 bowl games. Clemson has also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning record including their last six contests against winners — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher. The Tigers have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games as the favorite. Clemson leads the nation by allowing only 138.5 passing YPG — and Ohio State has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games against opponents that do not allow more than 150 passing YPG. I do give the edge to the Tigers at quarterback with Lawrence versus the Buckeyes’ Justin Fields. Not only does Fields lack playoff experience but he can also stand in the pocket a tick or two too long — he has been sacked nine times. Fields is very good — but he may not be at full strength either with an injured knee that has required him to wear a brace over his last few games which has limited his mobility. Ohio State has averaged 534.5 total YPG over their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after averaging at least 450 YPG in their last two contests. The Buckeyes allowed just 12.5 PPG this season — but they surrendered 21.0 PPG over their last four games and they have not played a team with as much speed as the Tigers. Ohio State has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after winning five straight games. The Buckeyes have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams from the ACC.

FINAL TAKE: Nick Saban was on the record after seeing his Alabama teams lose the National Championship to Clemson last January by a 44-16 score that he has never faced off against a better coached team than that group. All those Tigers coaches are back. Swinney has built the best program in the country in terms of recruiting and production — there is a reason they have won 28 games in a row while enjoying a 71-4 run over the last five seasons where they have reached the playoffs all five times. I like first-year head coach Ryan Day — but this Buckeyes team does not recruit quite as well as the Tigers and this is their first playoff experience since 2016. 10* CFB Clemson-Ohio State ESPN Special with the Clemson Tigers (243) minus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (244). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oklahoma Sooners (241) plus the points versus the LSU Tigers (242) in Peach Bowl College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma (12-1) has won five straight games after defeating Baylor as a 9-point favorite by a 30-23 score on December 7th in the Big 12 Championship Game. LSU (13-0) remained undefeated this season by defeating Georgia by a 37-10 score as a 7.5-point favorite to win the SEC Championship on December 7th. This game will be played in the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SOONERS PLUS THE POINTS: This Oklahoma team is a very dangerous underdog in this spot. This is an experienced group of players and coaching staff that is more familiar with the playoff atmosphere this game will have then that of LSU. This will be the fourth CFB Playoff in the last five years for this program. And quarterback Jalen Hurts has starting experience in the CFB Playoffs with Alabama — and he is very familiar with the LSU defense as well given his two previous starts against the Tigers. Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings against teams from the SEC. The Sooners may be a more dangerous underdog this time around than they have been in the last two College Football Playoff Semifinals due to the improvement of their defense under first-year defensive coordinator Alex Grinch. After allowing 33.3 PPG along with 6.1 Yards-Per-Play last season, Oklahoma improved to giving up just 24.5 PPG along with only 5.3 YPP this year. The Sooners’ defense was 25th in the nation by allowing 330.6 total YPG fueled by a pass defense that limited their opponents to just 198.5 passing YPG which was 23rd in the nation. And this is a unit that will be very familiar facing the spread passing attack that the Tigers’ installed this season. Over their last three games, Oklahoma allowed only 21.0 PPG along with just 268.0 total YPG. The Sooners are still a very potent football team on offense as they averaged 43.2 PPG while totaling 554.2 YPG which ranked 6th and 2nd in the nation. Third-year head coach Lincoln Riley has seen his team average 41 PPG over the last two College Football Playoff Semifinals against outstanding defenses from Alabama and Georgia. In many ways, Riley’s schemes are just fancy window dressing for Oklahoma’s old school wishbone offense — they are 11th in the nation by averaging 257.2 rushing YPG. Riley is a master at designing run plays that best put his offensive line in a position to succeed. Hurts has rushed the ball at least 20 times in four of his last five games since the team suffered their lone loss of the season to Kansas State. Hurts also completed 71.8% of his passes for 3634 passing yards with 32 touchdown passes and just 7 interceptions. Hurts offers the team a genuine deep passing threat to keep opposing defenses honest as he ranked 6th in the nation with 30 completions of 30 or more yards. This combination of characteristics has helped the Sooners cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as an underdog. Oklahoma has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December. And while the Sooners have not covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. When it comes to LSU, I worry about teams that achieved so many goals in the regular season to now let their guard down just a bit. The Tigers enjoyed their best regular season in years by going undefeated to win the SEC which, of course, included a victory over Alabama. Quarterback Joe Burrow went through an emotional Heisman Trophy celebration. Does this group think they are a team of destiny now? They are facing a very feisty Sooners’ team that will be playing in this game for a third straight season. This Tigers defense is not elite after ranking just 32nd in the nation by allowing 341.3 total YPG. Even worse, in their six games away from Death Valley, LSU allowed 29.5 PPG along with 447.5 total YPG. The Tigers have struggled against teams with mobile quarterbacks like Ole Miss who jacked them for 614 total yards with 404 of that production coming on the ground. LSU gained 481 yards against the outstanding Georgia defense — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. And while the Tigers have not committed a turnover in two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not committing a turnover in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: While LSU is the top seed in these Semifinals, bare in mind that no number one seed has gone on to win the National Championship. I appreciate that the Sooners are out a few key players due to suspension and injury — most notably defensive end Ronnie Perkins and safety Dellarin Turner-Yell. The MVP for this Oklahoma defense is their coordinator in Grinch — and he has had time to adjust. I expect this team to rally around each other after Riley had the guts to suspend players. LSU has a big injury of their own with running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire questionable with a hamstring injury he suffered last week. At the end of the day, the Tigers are simply overvalued by the public in being asked to lay around two touchdowns. 25* College Football Playoff Game of the Year with the Oklahoma Sooners (241) plus the points versus the LSU Tigers (242). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (237) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (238) in the Camping World Bowl. THE SITUATION: Iowa State (7-5) saw their two-game winning streak snapped to end their regular season with their 27-17 upset loss at Kansas State as a 4-point favorite on November 30th. Notre Dame (10-2) has won five straight games with their 45-24 win at Stanford as a 17.5-point favorite on November 30th. This game will be played at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES PLUS THE POINTS: Iowa State should bounce-back with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss. The Cyclones have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss to a Big 12 rival — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 straight road games after a loss. This is a dangerous football, especially as an underdog. Head coach Matt Campbell’s team played six bowl teams this season — and they saw four of their losses decided by just 11 combined points. Iowa State suffered heartbreaking losses to Oklahoma by 1-point and Baylor by 2-points. Led by sophomore quarterback Brock Purdy, the Cyclones are tied for 20th in the nation by averaging 458.7 total YPG fueled by a passing attack that is 8th in the FBS by averaging 318.3 passing YPG. Iowa State has been tough away from him where they are outscoring their opponents by +3.8 PPG while outgaining them by +51.0 net YPG despite a 2-3 record on the road. The Cyclones have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as a dog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Iowa State has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on a neutral field as an underdog. Furthermore, the Cyclones have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games with the Total set int he 49.5 to 56 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when playing with at least two weeks of rest and preparation. Notre Dame has now covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. The Fighting Irish have not committed a turnover in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after not committing a turnover in at least two straight contests. The Notre Dame offense had been clicking on all cylinders to close out the regular season as they have scored at least 38 points in their last four games. But the Irish have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games after scoring at least 31 points in three straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight road games after scoring at least 31 points in four straight contests. The Irish have also failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after winning at least eight of their last ten games.

FINAL TAKE: After losing their two biggest games of the year at Georgia and Michigan, it is hard to see this Notre Dame team being that excited to face the Cyclones. They have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 bowl games including failing to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 bowl games. Iowa State can salvage their season after some tough narrow losses with a victory over a blue blood like the Irish. 10* CFB Camping World Bowl ABC-TV Special with the Iowa State Cyclones (237) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (238). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Washington State Cougars (235) plus the points versus the Air Force Falcons (236) in the Cheez-It Bowl. THE SITUATION: Washington State (6-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in the Apple Bowl with their loss at Washington by a 31-13 score on November 29th as a 7.5-point underdog. Air Force (10-2) has won seven straight games with their 20-6 win over Wyoming as a 13.5-point favorite on November 30th. This game is being played at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS PLUS THE POINTS: The Falcons may be due for a letdown in this bowl game as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win at home over a Mountain West Conference rival — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a double-digit win over a conference foe. Air Force has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. And while the Falcons have covered the point spread in two of their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three contests. Air Force has been helped by only committing one turnover in each of their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game. The historical team trends regarding the respective personalities of both teams suggest this clash of styles is not favorable for the Air Force. The Cougars allow their opponents to average 456.8 total YPG — but the Falcons have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 34 games against teams who allow at least 450 YPG. And while the Air Force controls the clock on average of 33:43 minutes per game, Washington State has covered the point spread in 28 of their last 42 games against opponents that average at least 32 minutes with the football per game. The Falcons average 292.5 rushing YPG — but the Cougars have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games against teams who average at least 230 rushing YPG. Additionally, Washington State has covered the point spread in expected higher scoring games as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Washington State is reliable in the role of the underdog where they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games. The Cougars have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outside the Pac-12. 10* CFB Friday Late Show Bailout with the Washington State Cougars (235) plus the points versus the Air Force Falcons (236) in the Cheez-It Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (234) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (233) in the Holiday Bowl. THE SITUATION: Iowa (9-3) has won three straight games with their 27-24 win over Nebraska as a 4-point favorite back on November 29th. USC (8-4) has also won three straight games with their 52-35 win over UCLA as a 12.5-point favorite back on November 23rd as a 12.5-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field at SDCCU Stadium in San Diego.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a narrow win by 3 points or less against a Big Ten rival. And while the Hawkeyes have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in their last two games. This Iowa team lost their three games by a combined 14 points. This is a typical Kirk Ferentz team that is very physical with an outstanding defense and playmakers on offense. The Hawkeyes are 5th in the nation by allowing only 13.2 PPG — and they are 11th in the FBS by giving up just 304.3 total YPG. Iowa held their opponents to -81 YPG below their opponent’s season average. The offense is led by senior quarterback Nate Stanley who will be using this opportunity to bolster his NFL draft prospects. Iowa has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when given at least two weeks to prepare under Ferentz. The Hawkeyes are also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December. And in their last 8 games against teams outside the Big Ten, Iowa has covered the point spread 6 times. USC may be due for a letdown after avenging their 2018 loss to cross-town rival UCLA as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home by at least 17 points — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 19 games after a win at home over a Pac-12 opponent. Additionally, USC is just 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory so consistency is an issue for this team. This team has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning at least three straight contests. Complacency is also an issue for this program — while the program decided to retain head coach Clay Helton for a sixth season, the Trojans then brought-in the bottom rated recruiting class earlier this month. While this remains a talented team tonight, this is a group that makes too many mistakes under Helton’s leadership. USC is 111th in the nation by averaging -0.58 net turnovers per game. The Trojans are also tied for 111th in the nation by averaging 7.25 penalties per game — and they rank 124th by surrendering an average of 71.33 penalty YPG. These are the type of teams that Ferentz’s teams exploit — Iowa has covered the point spread in 35 of their last 55 games against teams that average at least 60 penalty YPG. USC also is suspect on defense with a unit that has been riddled by injuries all season. The Trojans are 84th in the nation by allowing 415.4 total YPG while also ranking 99th in the FBS by surrendering 248.9 passing YPG. USC allows their opponents to average +13 YPG above their season average — and they have allowed their last four opponents to average 34 PPG. UCLA passed for 383 yards against them a month ago — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. The Trojans rank 111th in the nation in opponent’s Success Rate on offense — and the Hawkeyes faced only one team (Rutgers) with a worse opponent Success Rate all season. USC is loaded on offense behind freshman QB Kedon Slovis and three uber-talented wide receivers. But this passing game will be tested by an Iowa defense that ranked 11th in the nation by allowing just 184.2 passing YPG. USC has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams outside the Pac-12. The Trojans have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games played on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games played in December including failing to cover their last 5 December contests.

FINAL TAKE: USC has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight bowl games while also failing to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 minor bowl games. Iowa has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 minor bowl games under Ferentz. This will be an emotional game for this Iowa program after their legendary coach, Hayden Fry, passed away ten days earlier. Ferentz took over the program from Fry in 1999 — and a victory tonight would secure the Hawkeyes’ first 10-win season since 2015. 25* CFB FS1-TV Game of the Year with the Iowa Hawkeyes (234) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (233). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:45 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Texas A&M Aggies (232) minus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (231) in the Texas Bowl. THE SITUATION: Texas A&M (7-5) has lost their last two games after being humiliated by LSU by a 50-7 score as an 18-point underdog back on November 30th. Oklahoma State (8-4) saw their four-game winning streak snapped on November 30th with their 34-16 loss to Oklahoma as a 14-point underdog. This game will be played on a neutral field in Houston’s NRG Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES MINUS THE POINTS: Texas A&M played a brutal schedule this season with their five losses all occurring against teams that are currently ranked in the top thirteen teams in the nation. Head coach Jimbo Fisher has a young team that he is trying to build into a national championship contender — so erasing the bad taste from everyone’s mouth from getting shellacked by the Tigers is important. The Aggies have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss — and they are also 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. A -3 net turnover margin to LSU certainly did not help matters — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after suffering a -2 or worse net turnover margin. Despite facing three of the top offenses in the nation in Clemson, Alabama, and the LSU, this Texas A&M defense held their opponents to -78 YPG below their season average. Overall, they rank 31st in the nation by holding their opponents to just 340.8 total YPG. The Aggies were very competitive in their previous game in Athens in what ended up being a 19-13 loss to Georgia. That is a brutal final two games on the road — and Texas A&M has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. This Aggies’ offense led by junior dual-threat QB Kellen Mond scored at least 30 points in six games this season when not facing Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, LSU, and Auburn’s stout defense. Oklahoma State was a shell of itself by the end of the season given the season-ending injuries to quarterback Spencer Sanders and All-American wide receiver Tylan Wallace. In their last two games with former Hawai’i transfer Dru Brown under center, the Cowboys averaged just 18 PPG while averaging only 305 YPG. This is not a good sign for a Mike Gundy coached team who has seen his team play three straight Unders as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after playing three straight Unders. Defense is an issue for this team after they allowed 418.1 total YPG this season which was 87th in the nation. While Oklahoma State was 4-2 on the road, they only outgained those opponents by +4.0 net YPG due to their defense giving up 454.5 total YPG. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning four of their last five games.

FINAL TAKE: Fisher has led his team to victories in six of his eight bowl games. Texas A&M has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games outside the SEC. They are also 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games when favored. 10* CFB Texas Bowl ESPN Special with the Texas A&M Aggies (232) minus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (231). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (227) minus the points versus the Temple Owls (228) in the Military Bowl. THE SITUATION: North Carolina (6-6) has won their last two games to become bowl eligible with their 41-0 win at North Carolina State as an 11-point favorite on November 30th. Temple (8-4) has won three of their last four games with their 49-17 win over UConn as a 26-point favorite to close out their season on November 30th. This game will be played on a neutral field in Annapolis, Maryland.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS MINUS THE POINTS: North Carolina should feed off the momentum from decisively defeating their in-state rival to secure bowl eligibility with their sixth victory of the season. The Tar Heels have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. This is certainly a battle-tested North Carolina team that took the reigning National Champions in Clemson to their closest game of the season in that 21-20 loss. The Tar Heels have played ten Power-Five conference opponents, along with one of the best Group of Five football programs in Appalachian State this season. North Carolina suffered six losses decided by one scoring possession including two of those losses in overtime. The Tar Heels are led by freshman quarterback Sam Howell who led an offense that ranked 24th in the nation by averaging 285.0 passing YPG. Howell threw for 35 touchdown passes while tossing just 7 interceptions. Howell was also third in the nation with 18 touchdown passes of more than 20 yards — and he was 9th in the nation with an Adjusted Completion Percentage of 49.4%. This is a talented North Carolina offense that should benefit from the extra weeks of practice and preparation for this game. They averaged +111 net YPG above the average opponent’s YPG season defensive average. The Tar Heels were also effective on the road where they outscored their opponents by +6.0 PPG while outgaining them by +111.3 net YPG. Additionally, North Carolina has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as the favorite. Temple has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after winning three of their last four contests. The Owls have not faced nearly as competitive a schedule as the Tar Heels with just two Power Five conference opponents in Maryland and Georgia Tech who were both bottom feeders in their conferences. Yet Temple was outscored away from home by -4.4 PPG while being outgained in their five games on the road by -15.0 net YPG. I am not a big fan of junior quarterback Anthony Russo who led an offense that averaged -26 YPG below their opponent’s season defensive average. The supposed calling card for this Owls team is their defense that ranked 43rd in the nation by allowing just 23.5 PPG while also ranking 46th in the FBS by giving up only 364.8 total YPG. Yet North Carolina’s defensive numbers are comparable as they allowed 24.6 PPG (49th in the nation) and 381.6 total YPG (61st in the nation) despite facing a vastly superior schedule. Temple has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral field.

FINAL TAKE: It is worth mentioning that Temple head coach Rod Carey lost all six of his bowl games during his tenure at Northern Illinois. Frankly, I worry that this consideration would be overvalued by the betting public — but with a few more tickets going the Owls’ way (as of this writing) as an underdog, that concern does not deter me from investing in the Tar Heels. Perhaps Carey is not as averse to prepare his teams for bowl games? I suspect his bad record says more about the talent he had with the Huskies. Mack Brown has a 13-8 bowl record in his long career — and he should be motivated to lead his team to victory since he has not overseen a bowl victory since 2012. I suspect that Brown’s tenure at ESPN makes him value these postseason games a little more than other coaches — and a victory would fuel the momentum of the resurrection of the Tar Heels program. However, the bottom line is that this North Carolina roster is more talented and better tested than this Temple team. 10* CFB Military Bowl ESPN Special with the North Carolina Tar Heels (227) minus the points versus the Temple Owls (228). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Eastern Michigan Eagles (226) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Panthers (225) in the Quick Lane Bowl. THE SITUATION: Eastern Michigan (6-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on November 29th with their 34-26 upset loss at home against Kent State as a 4-point favorite. Pittsburgh (7-5) has lost two straight games after their 26-19 upset loss at home to Boston College as a 9-point favorite on November 30th. This bowl game will be played at Ford Field in Detroit.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Eastern Michigan should respond with a strong effort under sixth-year head coach Chris Creighton as they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a point spread loss. The Eagles should be very motivated to play well in this bowl game a little less than an hour away from their Ypsilanti campus. This the third bowl game for this program in their last four years but they are fortunate to get the invitation with their 6-6 record coming out of the Mid-American Conference. Ten starters returned from last year’s 7-6 team that lost to Georgia Southern in the Camellia Bowl by a 23-21 score. The Eagles should be able to score points behind quarterback Mike Glass III who completed 67.8% of his passes with 22 touchdown passes. Eastern Michigan averaged 37.7 PPG along with 478.3 total YPG over their last three contests. The Eagles generated 409 yards in their loss to the Golden Flashes — and they have then covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Getting their senior running back, Shaq Vann back has also helped this offense. After missing three games midseason, Vann has returned to rush for 556 yards in his last six games while scoring all eight of his touchdowns over that span. The Eastern Michigan defense has also played better to close out their regular season — they have held their last three opponents to 21.7 PPG along with 376.3 total YPG. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 28 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as a double-digit underdog. Eastern Michigan has also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games against teams outside the MAC. Pittsburgh has been an unreliable big favorite as they are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a double-digit favorite. Eight of their games this season were decided by one scoring possession with them winning five of those contests to secure their bowl eligibility. The Panthers enter this bowl game disappointed after a late-season slide took them out of contention to win the Coastal Division of the ACC. This team limps into this game having scored just 17.7 PPG over their last three contests while being outscored by -9.3 PPG in those last three games while surrendering 369.3 total YPG which is -66.8 net YPG above their season average. Injuries on the defensive side of the ball along with the continual slide away from the typical offense that head coach Pat Narduzzi likes to implement likely explains that decline of play. While the Panthers averaged 5.6 Yards-Per-Carry last season, they averaged just 3.5 YPC this season. They are also passing the ball 53% of the time which is uncharacteristic of a ground-and-pound Narduzzi offense. Quarterback Kenny Pickett completes only 60.9% of his passes while tossing just 10 touchdown passes with 9 interceptions.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 bowl games. 10* CFB Quick Lane Bowl ESPN Special with the Eastern Michigan Eagles (226) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Panthers (225) in the Quick Lane Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (223) minus the points versus the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (224) in the Independence Bowl. THE SITUATION: Miami (6-6) has suffered two straight upset losses after their 27-17 loss at Duke as a 9.5-point favorite on November 30th. Louisiana Tech (9-3) snapped a two-game losing streak on November 30th with their 41-27 win over UTSA as a 21-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field in Shreveport, Louisiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HURRICANES MINUS THE POINTS: The Bulldogs are a trendy pick as an underdog behind seventh-year head coach Skip Holtz that has overseen a perfect 5-0 record straight-up in bowl games in his tenure at Louisiana Tech. And with this game being played just about an hour away from the Bulldogs’ campus in Ruston, some observers fancy some level of home-field advantage for Louisiana Tech. Well, the Bulldogs are not very familiar with the stadium and they will need the sparse crowd to be very loud to make a tangible difference even with the majority of the ticket-goers rooting for them. Louisiana Tech played the 141st most difficult schedule this season which means there were a handful of FCS opponents that had a more challenging slate of games this season. The Bulldogs played only one Power-Five conference opponent in Texas who crushed them by a 45-14 score in their opening game of the season. Their best victory is probably against Southern Mississippi depending on one’s feelings about Florida International. Yet this team was still outscored in their last three games by -4.3 PPG while being outgained in these contests by -45.4 net YPG. It is telling that Louisiana Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams from the ACC. The Bulldogs have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after winning eight of their last ten games. Observers are questioning the motivation level for this Miami team playing in a lesser bowl game — but I expect a highly motivated group under first-year head coach Manny Diaz. Diaz needs to end his first season as a head coach on a positive note after ending the season with two straight upset losses to that FIU team (in embarrassing fashion on a neutral field) before the loss on the road to the Blue Devils. The Hurricanes are also missing a handful of players who are either injury or skipping this game to prepare for the NFL draft. In that respect, the practices for this bowl game have been the first practices for the 2020 season for Diaz. Miami has tons of depth on their defensive line so losing two of those players in that rotation are not as devastating as they would be if the Hurricanes were playing one of the better Power-Five conference programs. The core of the team that was ranked 13th in the nation by allowing just 307.6 total PPG remains. Diaz has also used the bowl practices as an opportunity for a new quarterback competition between redshirt freshman Jarren Williams and redshirt sophomore N’Kosi Perry who split time this season along with former Ohio State transfer Tate Martell who had to leave the team twice this season but who has been back with the team this month. The Hurricanes defeated five bowl teams this season in what was a vastly superior strength of schedule than the Bulldogs. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. And while Louisiana Tech averages 277.3 passing YPG, Miami has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams who average at least 250 passing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Louisiana Tech is also not at optimal strength with two-time All-American cornerback Amik Robertson skipping this game to prepare for the NFL draft. He leaves a defense that was just 98th in the nation by allowing 247.8 passing YPG. I trust the oddsmakers on this one with them installing the Hurricanes as around a touchdown favorite. Miami has lost eight of their last nine bowl games so I do expect their players to be motivated to end this season on a high note under their first-year head coach. And I do not think highly of the argument that Louisiana Tech retains much of an advantage at all in that their bus ride to a near-empty stadium will have been only around an hour. 10* CFB Independence Bowl ESPN Special with the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (223) minus the points versus the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (224). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the BYU Cougars (221) minus the point(s) versus the Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors (222) in the Hawai’i Bowl. THE SITUATION: BYU (7-5) saw their five-game winning streak snapped back on November 30th with their 13-3 upset loss at San Diego State as a 4-point favorite. Hawai’i (9-5) had their five-game winning streak snapped on December 7th with their 31-10 loss at Boise State as a 14-point underdog in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. Hawai’i hosts this game in their Aloha Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINT(S): BYU has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset loss. BYU has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. The Cougars outgained the Aztecs by a decisive 416 to 269 yardage margin but they suffered a -3 net turnover margin in that contest— and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after enduring a -3 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. Quarterback Zach Wilson should benefit from the extra time to rest and prepare for this bowl game after missing four games during the season. He returned to play the last three games of the season — and he should be fired up to play in this bowl game after completing all 18 of his passes last year in BYU’s 49-18 thrashing of Western Michigan in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Despite their difficulties to score points against the stout San Diego State defense, they have still averaged 33.7 PPG in their last three games along with 497.7 total YPG which +59.0 Net YPG above their season average. BYU has also held its last three opponents to just 15.7 PPG along with only 277.3 total YPG. BYU has also been a good road warrior despite their 3-3 record as they are outgaining their home hosts by +98.8 net YPG. Additionally, the Cougars have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against Mountain West Conference opponents. Hawai’i has failed to cover the point spread in 44 of their last 52 games after a straight-up loss — and they are just 17-43-1 ATS in their last 61 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Rainbow Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss on the road by at least 21 points. Hawai’i has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a loss to an MWC rival. Quarterback Cole McDonald completed just 20 of 36 passes for 241 yards with no touchdown passes and one interception against the Broncos as he continued to be inconsistent in the second half of this season. The Rainbow Warriors run-and-shoot offense has been too loose with the football as they are averaging -1.0 net turnovers per game which listed for 124th in the nation. Hawai’i also has a suspect defense that ranks 91st in the nation by allowing 426.1 total YPG due largely to a suspect run defense that ranks 105th in the nation by allowing 200.8 rushing YPG. The Rainbow Warriors are 6-2 at home but they are allowing their visitors to generate 461.0 YPG. Hawai’i has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games at home. The Rainbow Warriors have also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Hawai’i is just 4-4 straight-up in their eight opportunities to play in the Hawai’i Bowl on their home field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of those games. The Rainbow Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 bowl games. Hawai’i is playing their third bowl game in Hawai’i over the last four seasons — so their motivation is a question. BYU has won their first two bowl games under head coach Kalani Sitake. 10* CFB Hawai’i ESPN Special with the BYU Cougars (221) minus the point(s) versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (222). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Marshall Thundering Herd (219) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights in the Gasparilla Bowl. THE SITUATION: Marshall (8-4) enters this game coming off a 34-27 win in overtime over Florida International as a 10-point underdog back on November 30th. Central Florida (9-3) comes off a 34-7 win over South Florida as a 24-point favorite on November 29th. This game is being played at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDERING HERD PLUS THE POINTS: In head coach Doc Holliday we trust in bowl games — he has led Marshall to six straight bowl victories. The Thundering Herd has covered the point spread in 7 straight bowl games. This team is playing better defense to close out the season. Over their last three games, they have held their opponents to just 20.3 PPG along with only 335.0 total YPG which is over 27 YPG below their season average. Marshall has covered the point spread in 6 straight games when playing on a neutral field. Additionally, the Thundering Herd has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games as an underdog. And in their last 7 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range, Marshall has covered the point spread 6 times. Central Florida may have some difficulties getting motivated to play as a double-digit favorite with this bowl being played in their home state. They generated 539 yards of offense in their win against the Bulls with 307 of those yards coming in the air. But the Knights have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Central Florida has averaged 493.3 total YPG over their last three games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after averaging at least 450 YPG over their last three games. They are averaging 33.0 PPG over those last three contests as well which is -10 PPG below their season average. The Knights have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after averaging 31 PPG in their last three games. This team has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning three of their last four games. Additionally, UCF has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing on a neutral field as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The Knights have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as the favorite. This is the first non-New Year’s Six Bowl game that this will be playing in since 2016. Expect the Thundering Herd to keep this game closer than expected. 10* CFB Gasparilla Bowl ESPN Special with the Marshall Thundering Herd (219) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights. Best of luck for us — Frank.