At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Panthers (153) plus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (154). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (4-3) has lost two of their last three games after a 24-10 loss at Louisville as a 1-point underdog last Saturday. North Carolina (6-1) is on a three-game winning streak after their 38-35 win at Duke as a 7-point favorite two weeks ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Tar Heels return to action after their bye week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after their bye week. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when playing with seven or more days between games. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a win against an ACC rival. North Carolina is 6th in the nation in Yards-Per-Play on offense after generating 536 total yards against the Blue Devils. But they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. And while the Tar Heels have averaged 7.4 and 6.6 YPP in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after generating at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. But the problem with this team is their defense that allows 476.6 Yards-Per-Game. North Carolina ranks 120th in Opponent Rush Success Allowed and 110th in Opponent Pass Success Allowed. They get to host this game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. Pittsburgh outgained the Cardinals last week by a 326 to 312 yardage margin but was done-in by a 59-yard fumble recovery defensive touchdown along with a -3 net turnover margin. But Pitt has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last contest. Quarterback Kedon Slovis threw two interceptions and only generated 158 yards in the air — but the Panthers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after gaining no more than 170 passing yards in their last game. Slovis has the opportunity to redeem himself against this Tar Heels pass defense that has allowed four of their six opponents to gain at least 245 yards in the air. Pittsburgh also has one of the best running backs in the country in senior Israel Abanikanda who has 959 rushing yards on 6.1 Yards-Per-Carry. North Carolina allows opposing rushers to average 187 rushing YPG and 4.7 YPC. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Head coach Pat Narduzzi has an outstanding pass defense that should slow down the Tar Heels freshman quarterback Drake Mayo and this potent North Carolina passing attack. The Panthers rank 9th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate and 4th in the FBS in Opponent Expected Points Added per Pass Attempt. They gained experience facing an up-tempo offense when they played Tennessee — and they held the Volunteers to only three points in the second half in that game. 25* College Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Panthers (153) plus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (154). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Central Florida Knights (146) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (145). THE SITUATION: Central Florida (5-2) had their four-game winning streak snapped with a 34-13 upset loss at East Carolina as a 5.5-point favorite last Saturday. Cincinnati (6-1) has won six in a row after their 29-27 win at SMU last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNIGHTS MINUS THE POINTS: Cbentral Florida was done-in by a -4 net turnover margin against the Pirates. They should bounce back in this critical game which will give the winner the driver’s seat to reach the American Athletic Conference Championship Game. The Knights have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a loss by 20 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 20 points in their last contest. Central Florida has one of the best rushing attacks in the nation as they generate 242.4 rushing Yards-Per-Game, ranking 6th in the nation. Ole Miss transfer John Rhys Plumlee offers head coach Gus Malzahn the dual-threat capability that he prefers in his quarterback — he is 3rd in the nation for quarterbacks by averaging 72.3 rushing yards per game. The Bearcats have struggled against mobile quarterbacks — Arkansas’ K.J. Jefferson rushed for 62 yards against them and South Florida’s Gerry Bohanan gained 117 yards against them on the ground. Plumlee has used his legs to generate 35 first downs this season. He has also averaged 328 passing Yards-Per-Game in his last three games. The Knights also bring in a stout defense against the run that ranks 11th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. This defense leads the nation in Red Zone defense by allowing only 15 scores in the 26 Red Zone trips by their opponents. UCF hosts this game at the Bounce House where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Cincinnati is just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up win. But senior quarterback Ben Bryant is beginning to regress as the season moves forward. The longtime backup to Desmond Ridder has only four touchdown passes in his last three games with three interceptions. They stay on the road this week where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Bearcats are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October — and the Knights have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in October. 10* CFB Cincinnati-Central Florida ESPN Special with the Central Florida Knights (146) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (145). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (178) plus the point(s) versus the SMU Mustangs (177). THE SITUATION: Tulsa (3-4) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 27-16 win at Temple as a 14-point favorite last Friday. SMU (3-4) has lost four of their last five games after a narrow 29-27 loss at home to Cincinnati as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN HURRICANE PLUS THE POINT(S): Tulsa has been a very reliable underdog under head coach Philip Montgomery. Since 2019, the Golden Hurricane are 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog with four upset victories during that stretch — and they have covered the point spread in nine straight games when getting the points. This team needs wins to become bowl eligible so this is a critical game for them this afternoon. Tulsa has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 36 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. Led by Davis Brin at quarterback, the Golden Hurricane generated 454 yards of offense against the Owls — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. He has 16 touchdown passes this season while averaging 9.0 yards per completion.  Tulsa ranks 12th in the nation in Finishing Drives. They return home where they are scoring 37.7 Points-Per-Game while gaining 448 Yards-Per-Game — they are outscoring their guests by +10 PPG and outgaining them by +98.0 YPG. Tulsa is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home. The Golden Hurricane are tough to pass against. They rank 21st in the nation by allowing only 165 passing YPG. They rank 19th in Opponent Pass Success Rate — and their opponent completion percentage rate of 53% is 11th best in the FBS. SMU may be without Tanner Mordecai who left last week’s game against the Bearcats with an undisclosed injury that kept him out of practice on Wednesday. If he does not play, we are in great shape since the Mustangs will have to turn to redshirt freshman Preston Stone under center. He completed only 6 of 15 passes for 74 yards in relief last week. SMU only gained 279 yards against Cincinnati while getting outgained by -100 net yards. Even if Mordecai plays and completes the game, the Mustangs are in a tough spot this afternoon. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games on the road after a narrow loss by six points or less. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after the first month of the season. The Mustangs’ defense is vulnerable —  they are giving up 449 YPG on the road. They rank 98th in the nation by giving up 327 passing YPG. They also struggle against the run with opposing rushers generating 5.2 Yards-Per-Carry — and they rank 123rd in the FBS by giving up 205 rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: SMU has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight meetings against the Golden Hurricane. 25* CFB American Athletic Conference Underdog of the Year with the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (178) plus the point(s) versus the SMU Mustangs (177). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (374) plus the points versus the Washington Huskies (373). THE SITUATION: California (3-3) has lost two games in a row after their 20-13 upset loss at Colorado in overtime as a 15.5-point favorite last Saturday. Washington (5-2) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 49-39 win against Arizona as a 14.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: California has now lost three times to an opponent that was 0-5 or worse on the season under head coach Justin Wilcox — and they scored only 7.7 Points-Per-Game in those embarrassing losses. In 2018, the Golden Bears responded with a 42-point win at Oregon State. Last year, they responded with a 30-point win at Stanford. Cal has simply not been a reliable favorite under Wilcox — but they have been money in the underdog role. The Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 24 of their 34 games as an underdog — and they have pulled off 13 upsets in those contests. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games as an underdog getting seven or more points including in their 24-17 loss at Notre Dame as a 13.5-point dog earlier this season. They have covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home as an underdog getting seven or more points. Cal should play better tonight to redeem themselves from their bad loss at Colorado inspired by playing under an interim head coach. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread loss. And in their last 7 games after not scoring at least 20 points in their last game, they have covered the point spread in 6 of those games. The Golden Bears have won all three of their games at home this season with an averaging winning margin of +14.0 PPG. Their offense wakes up when playing at home where they are scoring 34.3 PPG and generating 461.3 total Yards-Per-Game — and they are outgaining their guests by +50.6 net YPG. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. They gained 595 total yards against the Wildcats last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. First-year head coach Kalen DeBoer has quickly fixed the offensive woes for the Huskies in the last few years — and bringing in transfer quarterback Michael Penix, Jr. was a great move. Washington is scoring 42.1 PPG — but they now face a Cal defense that ranks 25th in the nation in Opponent Finishing Drive Rate. But the problem for the Huskies now is the complete collapse of what was once a consistently strong defense. Losing three players to the NFL from last year hurt — but this unit ranks 115th in Opponent Finishing Drive Rate and 102nd in Opponent Pass Success Rate. Washington goes back on the road for the third time in their last four games where they are winless this season with two losses by more than seven points. They have allowed their home hosts to score 42.5 PPG and generate 448.0 YPG against them. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Wilcox will remind his team that they lost to the Huskies on the road last season by a 31-24 score. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 35 games in conference play. 25* CFB Pac-12 Underdog of the Month with the California Golden Bears (374) plus the points versus the Washington Huskies (373). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Eastern Michigan Eagles (363) plus the points versus the Ball State Cardinals (364). THE SITUATION: Eastern Michigan (4-3) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 39-10 upset loss to Northern Illinois as a 3.5-point favorite last Saturday. Ball State (4-3) has won three games in a row after their 25-21 win against Connecticut as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Eastern Michigan threw a five-yard interception that the Huskies returned for a touchdown in the opening score of the game — and it was all downhill from there. The Eagles had a -2 net turnover margin in the game — but they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after enduring a -2 or worse net turnover margin in their last game. Eastern Michigan has also covered the point spread in 24 o their last 35 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after an upset loss at home to a Mid-American Conference rival. They only gained 29 rushing yards in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after failing to rush for at least 100 yards. Now they play a Cardinals team that is allowing 190 rushing yards per game. The Eagles go back on the road where they have already upset Arizona State and Western Michigan this season. They have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog. Ball State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win. They gained 213 yards on the ground against the Huskies — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after rushing for 200 or more yards in their last game. They only gained 147 yards in the air — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not passing for over 170 yards in their last game. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Ball State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Eastern Michigan Eagles (363) plus the points versus the Ball State Cardinals (364). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (170) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (169). THE SITUATION: Utah (4-2) looks to bounce back from their 42-32 upset loss at UCLA as a 3.5-point favorite last Saturday. USC (6-0) continued their unbeaten start to the season with a 30-14 win against Washington State as an 11.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Ken Whittingham certainly had an attentive group of players this week after the upset loss to the Bruins where they surrendered 502 total yards. Whittingham claimed his team got out-toughed by UCLA — so expect a bruising response by this team against the Trojans.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oklahoma Sooners (184) minus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (183). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma (3-3) has lost three games in a row after their 49-0 loss to Texas in the Cotton Bowl as a 7.5-point underdog in the Red River Rivalry last Saturday. Kansas (5-1) lost their first game of the season last week in a 38-31 loss to TCU as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SOONERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Oklahoma defense has been atrocious the last three weeks by giving up 145 combined points in losses to Kansas State, TCU, and then the Longhorns. But the Sooners are still laying up to 10 points in this game? It looks very easy to take the upstart Jayhawks — but I smell a trap. Oklahoma expects to get Dillon Gabriel back at quarterback for this game coming back from the concussion protocol — he has practiced all week and just needs to continue to not show lingering symptoms. The Sooners have been outscored by a 70-7 margin without Gabriel — getting him back will help both sides of the ball since the offense will be able to sustain long drives. Oklahoma was absolutely humiliated last week and head coach Brent Venables is being torched in the national media. But he did not forget how to coach defense after serving for years as the defensive coordinator at Clemson. I expect to see some improvement even if the six transfers the team brought in on that side of the ball have not worked out. The Sooners have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a loss by 20 or more points. And while Oklahoma only gained 195 yards last week without Gabriel, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not gaining at least 275 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game. Gabriel ranks 23rd in the nation in Total QBR this season. He has 11 touchdown passes and another eight “Big Time Throws” as graded by Pro Football Focus with zero interceptions nor turnover-worthy plays. He is complemented by a rushing attack that ranks top-ten in Expected Points Added per play. The Sooners return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when favored by 3.5 to 19 points. Kansas is likely without their starting quarterback Jason Daniels who suffered a shoulder injury last week that was described as likely season-ending. There has been talk that he could still play this week — but his effectiveness would be very much in doubt. Backup Jason Dean was solid in relief last week —  but he had only six touchdown passes and six interceptions as the starter last year which is one of the reasons why he lost the starting job to Daniels. The Jayhawks have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a loss by seven points or less to a Big 12 rival. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after winning four or five of their last six games. Kansas has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after allowing 37 or more points. The Jayhawks’ defense remains the weak link under head coach Lance Leipold. In their two games on the road, Kansas has allowed 36.0 Points-Per-Game and 473.5 total Yards-Per-Game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 road games with the Total set at 63 or higher. This team is also 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games in October.

FINAL TAKE: This Oklahoma team was considered one of the top-five teams in the country just a month ago. While those accolades were not justified, this team is not as bad as how they have looked in their last three games. Expect a spirited “circle the wagons” effort from them against a Kansas team that has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in Norman. 10* CFB Kansas-Oklahoma ESPN2 Special with the Oklahoma Sooners (184) minus the points versus the Kansas Jayhawks (183). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wyoming Cowboys (409) minus the points versus the New Mexico Lobos (410). THE SITUATION: Wyoming (3-3) has lost two straight games after their 33-16 loss at home to San Jose State as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. New Mexico (2-3) has lost two in a row with their 31-20 loss at UNLV as a 14-point underdog last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Craig Bohl will have Wyoming ready to play tonight following the loss to the Spartans. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss to a Mountain West Conference rival. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not scoring at least 20 points in their last game. Additionally, Wyoming has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing two of their last three games. And while they allowed 456 total yards to San Jose State, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after giving up at least 450 yards in their last game. Bohl is in a rebuild this season after losing 12 players in the transfer portal. But he has built a consistent program in his nine seasons in Laramie — and they have two solid victories against Air Force and Tulsa this season. New Mexico has one of the worst offenses in the nation once again this year after ranking 130th last year by scoring just 12.2 Points-Per-Game and 234.9 total Yards-Per-Game. This year, the Lobos are scoring 20.4 PPG and averaging 244.8 total YPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after a straight-up loss. They are also 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a point-spread victory. Senior quarterback Miles Kendrick completed 13 of 25 passes for only 163 yards — and New Mexico gained only 277 total yards in the game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 34 games after not passing for more than 170 passing yards in their last contest. They return home where they are only generating 283.6 total YPG — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games at home. One of their home victories this season was against Maine, an FCS opponent. They did not gain 300 total yards in their home games against Boise State or UTEP.

FINAL TAKE: Bohl will use the memory of their 14-3 upset loss at home to the Lobos last season as a 19.5-point underdog on October 23rd. But New Mexico has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games in October — and they are 10-26-1 ATS in their last 37 games against conference opponents. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Wyoming Cowboys (409) minus the points versus the New Mexico Lobos (410). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) RedHawks (346) plus the points versus the Kent State Golden Flashes (345). THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) (2-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 24-20 loss at Buffalo as a 3-point underdog last Saturday. Kent State (2-3) has won two of their last three games after their 31-24 win in overtime against Ohio as a 13-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami (OH) outgained the Bulls last week by a 359 to 278 yardage margin but could not pull out the game. The RedHawks have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The team is dealing with the likely season-ending injury to quarterback Brett Gabbert last month, but they are getting solid play from Aveon Smith under center. He completed 14 of 26 for 119 yards last week — but his biggest contributions were with his legs as he scored two touchdowns and rushed for 142 yards on twelve carries. Miami (OH) returns home to play just their second game in front of their home fans all season. The RedHawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 home games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63-point range. Kent State comes off a huge offensive performance where they gained 736 total yards. Quarterback Collin Schlee completed 24 of 37 passes for 398 yards in the victory last week — but the Golden Flashes have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after passing for at least 280 passing yards in their last game. And while they gained 7.67 Yards-Per-Play against the Bobcats, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after generating at least 6.25 YPP in their last game. Kent State has won both their games at home — but they are winless in their three games on the road while getting outscored by -24.0 Points-Per-Game. The Golden Flashes are scoring only 15.0 PPG on the road while averaging just 305.7 YPG. They have allowed their three home hosts to generate 495.0 total YPG. Granted, playing at Washington, Oklahoma, and Georgia is a brutal non-conference schedule — but Kent State’s season stats are propped by a 63-10 win at home against Long Island. The Golden Flashes have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Miami (OH) will be motivated to avenge a 48-47 loss at Kent State last year in a pick ‘em contest. The Golden Flashes have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against the RedHawks — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing at Miami (OH). 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Underdog of the Month with the Miami (OH) RedHawks (346) plus the points versus the Kent State Golden Flashes (345). Best of luck for us -- Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (160) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (159). THE SITUATION: Tulsa (2-2) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 35-24 loss to Ole Miss as a 21-point underdog last Saturday. Cincinnati (3-1) has won three in a row after their 45-24 win against Indiana as a 16.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN HURRICANE PLUS THE POINTS: Tulsa almost pulled the upset against a quality SEC opponent — they were only outgained by a 462 to 457 yardage margin to the Rebels. The Golden Hurricane have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. They have a gunslinger under center in quarterback Davis Brin who completed 7 of 13 passes for 112 yards sharing time last week. The Bearcats can be passed on — they rank 93rd in the nation in Opponent Passing Success Rate Allowed. Tulsa stays at home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 35 of their last 52 games against teams with a winning record. After losing at Arkansas, Cincinnati has padded their statistics with an easy schedule that has included Miami (OH), Kennesaw State, and then the Hoosiers last week. The Bearcats have averaged 329.3 passing Yards-Per-Game in those three games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after a three-game stretch. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games when favored by 7.5 to 14 points.

FINAL TAKE: Since 2019, the Golden Hurricane has been a point-spread underdog 15 times. They have pulled off the upset victory in four of those games while covering the point spread in 13 of those 15 situations — and they have covered the point spread in nine straight games as a dog. Those two-point spread losses were coin flip losses as well: They lost to Mississippi State in their bowl game in 2020 by two points as a 1-point dog and they lost to Tulane in 2019 by 12 points as a 10-point underdog. They have been getting +16, +13.5, and +22.5 points (last season) against Cincinnati in their last three meetings against them — but they have lost by just 3, 11, and then 8 points respectively in those games after a 28-20 loss in their house last year. The Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against Tulsa. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (160) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (159). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Toledo Rockets (196) minus the points versus the Central Michigan Chippewas (195). THE SITUATION: Toledo (2-2) has lost two games in a row after their 17-14 upset loss at San Diego State as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. Central Michigan (1-3) looks to rebound from a 33-14 loss at Penn State as a 28-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKETS MINUS THE POINTS: Toledo returns home after a tough two-game stretch on the road that started with a trip to Columbus to play Ohio State. The Rockets outgained the Aztecs by a 376 to 282 yardage margin but still managed to lose the game. Toledo has bounced back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games after a two-game road trip — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after losing their last two games on the road. They are also 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last contest. While the Buckeyes embarrassed them by scoring 77 points, the Rockets have held their three other opponents to just 9.0 Points-Per-Game. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against Mid-American Conference opponents. Central Michigan is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a loss. They only gained 88 yards on the ground against the Nittany Lions — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after not rushing for more than 100 yards in their last contest. The Chippewas’ offense may be dependent on the arm of quarterback Daniel Richardson but he is completing only 57.6% of his passes while averaging just 6.5 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Central Michigan defense is giving up 32.2 PPG — and they rank 84th in the nation in opponent’s Success Rate. The Chippewas have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in October under head coach Jim McElwain.

FINAL TAKE: Toledo should be fired up for this game after getting upset in Muskegon last year by a 26-23 score as a 5-point road favorite against Central Michigan on October 16th last season. The Chippewas have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against the Rockets — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 trips to Toledo. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Game of the Month with the Toledo Rockets (196) minus the points versus the Central Michigan Chippewas (195). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Arkansas Razorbacks (192) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (191). THE SITUATION: Arkansas (3-1) looks to rebound from their 23-21 loss to Texas A&M as a 1-point underdog in Dallas last Saturday. Alabama (4-0) comes off a 55-3 win against Vanderbilt as a 40.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAZORBACKS PLUS THE POINTS: Alabama has been vulnerable in true road games as of late. Head coach Nick Saban’s team has only one victory by more than a field in their last five games played in a hostile environment which includes their 20-19 win at Texas earlier this season as a three-touchdown favorite. Two of those narrow victories were the result of a late Crimson Tide score despite them being on average an 18.5-point road favorite in those games. Saban’s decisive edge in recruiting over the last decade has taken a step back with the rise of Georgia competing for those players and now the new era of NILs. This year’s team does not have the same elite talent at wide receiver as they have enjoyed in the past — and the offensive line is a work in progress. Alabama has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 20 or more points. They went into halftime with a 31-3 lead over the Commodores — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than a field in the first half of their previous game. They rushed for 228 yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after rushing for 200 or more yards in their last game. And while the Tide has 118 points in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after scoring 42 or more points in two straight games. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 4 road games when favored by 14.5-21 points, they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of those games. Arkansas outgained the Aggies last week by a 415 to 343 yardage margin but an 82-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown for Texas A&M made the difference in the game. The Razorbacks also fumbled on the Aggies’ goal-line to blow a touchdown opportunity. They had a 70% post-game win probability so the result was a major disappointment for head coach Sam Pittman’s team. But there is nothing like the opportunity to upset Alabama to make things right again. Arkansas has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after winning three of their last four games. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games as an underdog. The Razorbacks have the skill players on offense that can move the ball against the Crimson Tide defense. Running back Raheim Sanders is averaging 6.1 Yards-Per-Carry behind a big offensive and experienced offensive line — and he is averaging 3.9 yards after contact. Junior quarterback K.J. Jefferson is a dual threat who led the team to a 9-4 record last year with six wins against bowl teams. The defense has already registered 20 sacks — and they rank fourth in the nation in Passing Downs Sack Rate. This is an area where Alabama is vulnerable as they rank 87th in the FBS in Passing Down Sack Rate Allowed.

FINAL TAKE: Arkansas will be confident in this game after only losing by a 42-35 score as a 20.5-point underdog last year against Alabama in Tallahassee. The Razorbacks are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games against SEC opponents. 10* CFB Alabama-Arkansas CBS-TV Special with the Arkansas Razorbacks (192) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (191). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (110) minus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (109). THE SITUATION: Boise State (2-2) had their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 27-10 upset loss at UTEP as a 16.5-point favorite on Friday. San Diego State (2-2) comes off a 17-14 upset win at home against Toledo as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINT: Boise State head coach Andy Avalos fired his offensive coordinator Tim Plough after that loss to the Miners with the offense only generating 177 yards of offense. Senior quarterback Hank Bachmeier entered the transfer portal after the game as well looking for a new school to play for while not burning a year of eligibility by playing a fifth game this season. Frankly, both moves may be addition by subtraction. Avalos brought in former Boise State head coach Dirk Koetter (1998-2000) as his new offensive coordinator. Koetter is a professional offensive coach with extensive NFL as an offensive coordinator and three years as the head coach for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He should have an immediate impact on streamlining the offense from the up-tempo Air Raid system Plough had installed last season. The quarterback will be 6’6 freshman Taylor Green who completed 19 of 27 passes for 155 yards earlier this season against Oregon State. Expect an inspired effort from this Boise State team that got embarrassed last week. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset loss by 14 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a loss by 17 or more points. Additionally, the Broncos are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread loss. They are also 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games after not scoring more than 20 points. San Diego State got outgained by a 376 to 282 margin against the Rockets last week — but they took advantage of a +3 net turnover margin to pull off the upset. The Aztecs forced four turnovers last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after enjoying a +3 or better turnover margin in their last contest. San Diego State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. Quarterback Braxton Burmeister only passed for 65 yards last week, going 13 of 24. He is averaging just 3.6 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game — and he has only 230 passing yards for the entire season. The Aztecs are dead last 131st in the nation in Passing Success Rate — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not passing for at least 170 yards in their last game. They are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Mountain West Conference.

FINAL TAKE: San Diego State pulled off a 27-16 upset win at home as a 3-point underdog against the Broncos last season on November 26th — so Boise State will be looking for revenge. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 15 games at home when favored by up to seven points. 10* CFB San Diego State-Boise State FS1-TV Special with Boise State Broncos (110) minus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oregon State Beavers (376) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (375). THE SITUATION: Oregon State (3-0) has won their first three games this season with their 68-28 win against Montana State as a 17.5-point favorite last Saturday. USC (3-0) has won their first three games this year after their 45-17 win against Fresno State as an 11.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEAVERS PLUS THE POINTS: We were on Fresno State last week — and they were in play to cover the point spread as a double-digit dog before their NFL-bound quarterback, Jake Haener, got injured and left the game about halfway through the contest. I still consider the Trojans prime-fade territory with all the hype being placed on this team. USC is 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while they rushed for 233 yards in that game, the Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Now they go back on the road where they are 5-13-2 ATS in their last 20 games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in Pac-12 play. This will be their toughest test of the season playing on the road in a tough environment against the Beavers. Oregon State has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a win by 20 or more points. Behind quarterback Chance Nolan, the Beavers have a high-powered offense of their own that should score plenty of points against a defense that allowed Stanford to put up 28 points and 441 total yards against it. Oregon State is scoring 45.7 PPG while putting up at least 34 points in all three of their games — including a victory against Boise State. The Beavers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring at least 31 points in two straight contests. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home. Additionally, Oregon State has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Oregon State upset USC last year by a 45-27 score as a 10.5-point underdog in the Coliseum. Now the Trojans travel to Corvallis where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against the Beavers. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with the Oregon State Beavers (376) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (375). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Washington State Cougars (380) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (379). THE SITUATION: Washington State (3-0) continued their unbeaten start to the season with a 38-7 victory against Colorado State as a 17-point favorite last Saturday. Oregon (2-1) comes off their best game of the season in a 41-20 victory against BYU as a 3.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS PLUS THE POINTS: The Ducks may be due for a letdown after their statement victory against BYU. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. First-year head coach Dan Lanning takes over a program that has been upset in four of their last six games when playing on the road as the favorite — and they were laying at least 8.5 points in all four of those upset losses. Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. Lanning tapped former Auburn quarterback Bo Nix to be his quarterback from the transfer portal — but the junior has a history of nasty home/road splits in his career. Granted, Nix comes off an efficient 13 of 18 passing effort against BYU where he passed for 222 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. In his career playing at home, Nix completes 65% of his passes with 30 touchdown passes and only two interceptions. But when playing on the road, Nix’s completion percentage drops to 55% with 12 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions. On the other side of the ball, Lanning’s plans to transform the Oregon defense remain a work in progress. After serving as the defensive coordinator at Georgia, Lanning inherited a Ducks defense that lost six of their top eight tacklers from a unit that ranked 72nd in the nation by allowing 385.6 total Yards-Per-Game. Oregon ranks 118th in the nation in opponent’s Success Rate this season — and they rank 97th in opponent’s Explosiveness Rate. They are allowing their opponents to average 277.0 passing YPG, ranking 114th in the FBS. BYU passed for 305 yards last week despite missing their top two wide receivers to injury — and the Ducks have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Washington State quarterback Cameron Ward comes off his best game for the Cougars last week. The highly-touted transfer from Incarnate Word completed 25 of 35 passes for 292 yards with four touchdown passes in the victory against the Rams. He led the Cougars to a 17-14 upset win against a nationally-ranked Wisconsin team the previous week. Washington State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. But the strength of this team under head coach Jake Dickert has been the play of the defense. The Cougars are allowing just 12.7 Points-Per-Game this season — and they rank 12th in the nation in opponent’s Success Rate with a balanced unit that is 18th in the FBS in opponent’s Rushing Success Rate and 17th in opponent’s Pass Success Rate. Washington State is holding their opponents to 90.7 rushing YPG, ranking 28th in the nation, and they have not allowed a rushing touchdown. They have also registered 14 sacks, the second-most in the nation. They held Colorado State to just 275 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against Pac-12 competition.

FINAL TAKE: Washington State will have revenge on their minds after a 38-24 loss in Eugene against the Ducks on November 13th last season. But Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against the Cougars — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against Washington State in Pullman. 25* CFB Pac-12 Game of the Month with the Washington State Cougars (380) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (379). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Georgia State Panthers (306) plus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (305). THE SITUATION: Georgia State (0-3) lost their third straight game to start the season after their 42-41 upset loss at home to Charlotte despite being a 20-point favorite last Saturday. Coastal Carolina (3-0) remained undefeated this year after a 38-26 win against Buffalo as a 12-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Expectations were very high for this Georgia State team that returned 15 starters from a group that finished 8-5 including a 51-20 victory against Ball State in the Camellia Bowl. The Panthers won seven of their last eight games to end the season with the team improving when head coach Shawn Elliott turned to former Furman transfer Darren Grainer at quarterback. Elliott has led this young program to three straight bowl games — and this may be his best roster yet in Atlanta. Georgia State does not shy away from difficult schedules — which explains two-thirds of their disappointing start this year. They opened the year in Columbia against South Carolina — and they outgained the Gamecocks but had two of their punts returned for a touchdown in the second half to blow that opportunity to pull the upset. We had them the next week at home against North Carolina — and they had a 28-21 lead late in the third quarter against the Tar Heels before letting the game slip away. They stayed at home to host a Charlotte team that, ironically, was the only team they beat in their first five games last year in a brutal early stretch of games against Army, at North Carolina, at Auburn, and home against Appalachian State. Frankly, the Panthers should have upset Auburn in their building last year. With this showdown against Coastal Carolina on deck, Georgia State was in a letdown sandwich situation where they risked being flat after disappointing results with a game on deck. But the Panthers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a loss by six points or less in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing two games in a row at home. Mental mistakes are holding this team back. Too penalties played a role last week as well as a 52-yard fumble recovery that the 49ers returned for a touchdown. Don’t blame the offense too much as they gained 602 total yards and outgained Charlotte by +101 net yards. Grainger completed 22 of 34 passes for 343 yards with four touchdowns and one interception while adding another 54 yards on the ground. The 49ers return Tucker Gregg and Jamyest Williams from a backfield that ranked eighth in the nation by averaging 226.4 rushing Yards-Per-Game — and they have improved on that mark this season by averaging 231 rushing YPG. They gained 259 rushing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Additionally, the Panthers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 475 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after passing for at least 280 yards. And while the defense gave up 401 passing yards last week, they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after giving up at least 325 passing yards in their last contest. Georgia State should be better on that side of the ball with nine of their top 11 tacklers on defense back from last year including three starters in their secondary. Coastal Carolina has looked shaky despite their unbeaten start to the season. They allowed 202 rushing yards on 5.2 Yards-Per-Carry in their opening game against Army — a concerning effort when now playing the Panthers' rushing attack. They were then outgained by Gardner Webb in a 32-27 victory despite being a 32.5-point favorite. Then last week against the Bulls, they entered the fourth quarter trailing by a 19-17 score before recovering a fumble that they returned for a 21-yard touchdown changed the momentum of that game. The Chanticleers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. And while they forced four turnovers last week, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after forcing at least three turnovers in their last contest. Coastal Carolina is led by their third-year starting quarterback, Grayson McCall, who is the two-time reigning Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year. But after 19 starters were back last year for their second-straight 11-win season, the team lost tons of talent on both sides of the ball for this year. On offense, McCall lost 161 receptions accounting for 2645 yards and 24 touchdowns including tight end Isaiak Likely who is developing into the third receiving option already for the Baltimore Ravens. The Chanticleers also lost a 1000-yard rusher in Shermari Jones to graduation and three starters on the offensive line. The defense lost their top-five tacklers — and the linebackers lost five of their top six from last year and seven of the top nine defensive backs. Fifth-year head coach Jamey Chadwell did his best to fortify the roster from the transfer portal but this is a young program as well that just finished a peak cycle. And don’t underestimate the importance of this team only losing six starts to injury last year which helped produce that 11-2 campaign. Now the depth issues for this program get exposed with just seven starters back. They are running the ball in 65% of their snaps — but they only rank 71st in Rushing Success Rate. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in conference play — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: This Georgia State handed the Chanticleers one of their two losses last year — but McCall did miss that game with an injury. But this is a veteran Panthers team with 10 sixth-year super seniors back this year taking advantage of the COVID free-year of eligibility — and they must win this game to save their season. Georgia State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in conference play. Getting Coastal Carolina on a short week will help because their identity is to win in the trenches on both sides of the ball. 25* CFB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month with the Georgia State Panthers (306) plus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (201) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (202). THE SITUATION: Fresno State (1-1) looks to bounce back from a 35-32 loss at home to Oregon State as a 1-point underdog last Saturday. USC (2-0) is undefeated so far this season after their 41-28 victory at Stanford as a 10-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: USC has declared their program back to national prominence after following up their 66-14 victory against Rice two weeks ago with a 41-28 win at Stanford last week. First-year head coach Lincoln Riley was not saying anything to tap the breaks on all the accolades that have been offered to him in the interviews I saw of him this week. But this is the biggest test the Trojans will have so far this season against a Bulldogs team with a senior quarterback who will be drafted into the NFL. The Cardinal program has taken a step back in the last few seasons — so big wins against Rice and them are just not that big a deal. As it is, USC has failed to cover the point seeped in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. Furthermore, the Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Sophomore quarterback Caleb Williams who came over with Riley from Oklahoma completed 20 of 27 passes for 341 yards with four touchdowns last week — but USC is just 10-22-1 ATS in their last 33 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Riley developed a reputation for having his teams underperform in critical games when he was coaching the Sooners. The Trojans led Rice at halftime by a 31-14 score before taking a 35-14 halftime lead last week — but Riley’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after enjoying a two-touchdown lead or better in two straight games. The underlying numbers suggest that this team may soon get a visit from the Regression Gods. USC has enjoyed a +8 net turnover margin this year — despite the expected turnover margin being just +2.5. The bouncing ball from fumbles and tipped passes tends to even out over time. Stanford turned the ball over twice inside the Trojans’ 5-yard line last week — and while the Trojans had a +4 net turnover margin in that game, the expected turnover margin was just +1.6. USC has intercepted six balls despite only having seven pass breakups — and the metrics indicate that teams get one interception per four pass breakups. The Trojans host this game where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against non-conference opponents. Fresno State has 15 starters back from the team that finished 10-3 last year with a victory against UTEP in the New Mexico Bowl by a 31-24 score. The Bulldogs are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games after a straight-up loss. And while they generated 492 yards against the Beavers last week, they have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 42 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Senior quarterback Jake Haener completed 29 of 45 passes for 360 yards in a losing effort. He has an elite group of wide receivers led by Jalen Cropper and Josh Kelly. Haener is a gunslinger who will be able to move the ball against this USC defense that allowed 5.5 Yards-Per-Play and 441 total yards against Stanford. And the Bulldogs should have success running the football. Led by running backs Jordan Mims and Malik Sherrod who combined to average 5.9 Yards-Per-Carry, Fresno State ranks seventh in the nation in Rushing Success Rate. Despite Rice and Stanford being suspect running teams last year, both those teams averaged 6.8 Yards-Per-Carry in non-sack rushing attempts this season — and the Trojans rank 119th in opponent’s Rushing Success Rate. The Bulldogs are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games on the road — and they have covered 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against Pac-12 opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Fresno State will be very motivated to make a statement against the biggest in-state program. They upset UCLA by a 40-37 score in Los Angeles last season with Haener having a big day. USC has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored by 10.5 to 21 points. 25* CFB Fox-TV Game of the Month with the Fresno State Bulldogs (201) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (202). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the University of Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (193) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (194). THE SITUATION: UTSA (1-1) looks to rebound from their 41-38 upset loss in overtime at Army last Saturday as a 2-point favorite. Texas (1-1) comes off a 20-19 loss at home to Alabama as a 21-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROADRUNNERS PLUS THE POINTS: Once again, Texas has declared themselves “back” as a national power — this time this proclamation is being made despite not winning their last game. Admittedly, the Longhorns played their best game on defense in a long time — but that may speak more to the state of the Crimson Tide’s offensive line and talent at wide receiver than it does regarding the Texas defense that ranked 100th in the nation last year by allowing 425.6 total Yards-Per-Game. For a defensive unit that was called out last year for not playing hard, coming off a “successful” setback to now host a Group of Five opponent might be a recipe for disaster. As it is, the Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing their last game. Second-year head coach Steve Sarkisian has been anointed as a brilliant leader more than one time — only to find another way to fail. After the chaos under his watch as the head coach at USC, he was given another chance as the offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons before taking the same job at Alabama under Nick Saban. He took over the Texas program last year after Tom Herman, the previous “savior” who “resurrected the program to national stature” after beating Georgia in the 2020 Sugar Bowl to complete a four-loss season, was fired after four seasons. Despite having 15 starters back, the Longhorns settled for their first losing season in five seasons after the team lost six in a row in the second half of the season. Off-the-field chaos continued to follow Sarkisian  — and the team lost at home to Kansas. But forget all that. A win against UL-Monroe before the “triumph” of losing to Alabama in a close game changes everything … once again. Concerns remain from last week’s game. Texas only rushed for 79 yards on 33 carries despite having junior phenom Bijan Robinson who is now dealing with an injury that may slow him down in this game. They are 8-18-1 ATS in their last 27 games after not rushing for at least 100 yards in their last game. The bigger news is that freshman Quinn Ewers suffered a broken clavicle that will keep him out for four to six weeks. Redshirt sophomore Hudson Card gets the start for this game after he came on in relief to complete 14 of 22 passes for 158 yards. But he is dealing with a nagging ankle injury that might limit his mobility which is central to his skill set. Card was benched after the section game last year because he was lacking in pocket presence. His confidence could easily get shot if this becomes a close game. UTSA is a very dangerous opponent. The reigning Conference USA champions return 13 starters from the team that finished 12-2 last year. This group is already battle-tested with both of their games this season going to overtime after losing their opening game against Houston despite outgaining them by 101 net yards. The Roadrunners then outgained the Black Knights last week by 28 net yards in pulling out that win. UTSA has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread win. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and after gaining 513 yards against the solid Army defense, they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after generating at least 450 yards in their last game. Defense is a concern for this team after they allowed 485 yards last week — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. The Roadrunners have a sixth-year senior at quarterback with plenty of experience in Frank Harris. He is having an outstanding season. He is averaging 348 passing Yards-Per-Game with six touchdown passes to one interception — and he is adding 46.5 rushing YPG. UTSA has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games in September.

FINAL TAKE: While Texas just played their proverbial “Super Bowl” last week, this is the Roadrunners’ big opportunity to make a statement now. This is the first time that UTSA will be playing at Texas Memorial Stadium as they make the 80-mile trip north from San Antonio to Austin. This team will not be intimidated. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against non-conference opponents under third-year head coach Jeff Traylor — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games on turf where their team speed on offense can be better deployed. 25* CFB Underdog of the Month with the University of Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (193) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (194). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Panthers (348) plus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (347). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (1-0) comes off a 38-31 win at home against West Virginia as a 7.5-point favorite on September 1st. Tennessee (1-0) defeated Ball State by 59-10 score as a 37-point favorite two Thursdays ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: We had the Mountaineers in that Thursday night game who covered the point spread by a half-point — and Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. The encouraging development for Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi was the play of senior quarterback Kedon Slovis. The transfer from USC completed 16 of 24 passes for 308 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions to outplay J.T. Daniels, the quarterback he replaced for the Trojans when both were in that program. The Panthers are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Pitt returns 15 starters from the team that finished 11-3 and won the ACC championship. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Tennessee was dominant on offense last week by gaining 569 total yards against an overmatched Cardinals defense. But the Volunteers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a victory under second-year head coach Josh Heupel. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring 40 or more points in their last game. And while Tennessee held Ball State to just 343 total yards, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Volunteers' defense will likely remain the downfall of this team after they ranked 99th in the nation last year by allowing 421.7 total Yards-Per-Game. They did not register a sack last week — and they missed 11 tackles. Tennessee was flat-track bullies last year that beat up on lesser teams before shrinking against better competition. They scored 53 Points-Per-Game while averaging 7.6 Yards-Per-Play against teams outside ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s top-40 SP+ analytics system — but those numbers dropped to 29 PPG and 6.2 YPP against teams inside the SP+ top-40. While they held their first seven opponents to 22.9 PPG and 4.9 YPP, those defensive numbers exploded to them giving up 39.3 PPG and 6.0 YPP in their last six games when they started playing quality SEC opponents. They lost four of their five games last year against ranked opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played last year with Pitt winning on the road in Knoxville by a 41-34 score. It was that loss that prompted Heupel to make a change at quarterback with Hendon Hooker taking over for Joe Milton — but that angle may be overrated in this rematch since Hooker played for much of that game. This will be a clash of styles between the fast-tempo of the Volunteers' offense facing the ball control slog that the Panthers want to play. Pitt ran the ball on 61% of their plays last week — and this style may frustrate Tennessee who is used to getting their way. The laptops tend to overvalue the Volunteers given their blowout victories against lesser teams in which they play fast and do not take their foot off the accelerator. The Panthers have six All-ACC selections back on defense — and the Pitt defense generated eight tackles-for-loss last week. 10* CFB Tennessee-Pittsburgh ABC-TV Special with the Pittsburgh Panthers (348) plus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (347). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia State Panthers (322) plus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (321). THE SITUATION: Georgia State (0-1) looks to bounce back from a 35-14 loss at South Carolina as a 12-point underdog last Saturday. North Carolina (2-0) survived a 63-61 upset win at Appalachian State as a 3.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Tar Heels were very fortunate to leave Boone, North Carolina with a victory last week. The Mountaineers missed a two-point conversion at the end of the game that would have forced overtime. Not only did the Tar Heels get outgained by 82 net yards, but they also surrendered a whopping 649 yards in that game with Appalachian State scoring an incredible 40 points in the fourth quarter alone. Fourth-year head coach Mack Brown brought in Gene Chizik as his new defensive coordinator to fix a defense that ranked 94th in the nation by allowing 418.0 total Yards-Per-Game last year. It is safe to say that remains a work in progress. The 11 starters that returned from last year’s team that settled for a 6-7 record may have learned the wrong lesson last week. They stay on the road this week to play another Sun Belt Conference team who they crushed by 32 points last year — so they may not be completely focused with a bye on deck before a showdown with Notre Dame. As it is, the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. This team has not fared well after playing a wild high-scoring game. North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game where both teams scored 30 or more points. They did gain 567 yards last week — and they have averaged 8.85 and 9.45 Yards-Per-Play in their first two games. But the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after generating at least 6.25 YPP in two straight games. Their defense is a big problem — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Furthermore, North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road games when favored. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against non-conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record. Georgia State should have a chip on their shoulder for this game after losing to an SEC opponent last week in a game that was much closer than the final score indicated. The Panthers outgained the Gamecocks by a 311-306 margin but had two punts blocked in the second half that were returned for touchdowns. Georgia State opened the game by driving inside South Carolina’s 10-yard line before turning the ball over on downs. The Gamecocks also nailed two field goals from beyond 50 yards. But this is a resilient team under head coach Shawn Elliott in his sixth year with the program. The Panthers won seven of their last eight games last year — including a 51-20 victory against Ball State in the Camellia Bowl — to finish the season with an 8-5 record. Fourteen starters return from that group including senior quarterback Darren Grainger. Georgia State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by 20 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. And while last week’s game finished Under the 55-point Total, the Panthers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after playing an Under in their previous game. They should have success running the football against a Tar Heels defense that allowed Appalachian State to generate 6.7 Yards-Per-Carry. Georgia State has four starters back and their top two rushers from last year, Tucker Gregg and Jamyest Williams, from an offense that was 8th in the nation by averaging 226.4 rushing YPG. Grainger is a mobile quarterback who ran for 660 yards last season and who gained 43 yards on the ground last week. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record.                         

FINAL TAKE: Georgia State will not be intimidated by hosting a Power-Five team this afternoon. The Panthers outgained a Gamecocks team last week that soundly defeated the Tar Heels in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl by a 38-21 score last season. Georgia State upset Tennessee in Knoxville in 2019 — and they played Auburn tough on the road last season before losing by a 34-24 score. The Panthers will have revenge on their minds as well after getting embarrassed in Chapel Hill to the Tar Heels by a 59-17 score. That game was played early in the season before Grainger took over as the starting quarterback which helped turn their season around. 25* CFB Saturday ESPNU Game of the Month with the Georgia State Panthers (322) plus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (321). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (172) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (171). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (0-0) returns 12 starters from their team that finished 11-2 after beating Utah in the Rose Bowl by a 48-45 score. Notre Dame (0-0) has 15 starters back from a team that finished 11-2 after a 37-35 loss to Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Ohio State enters this season chippy after losing to Michigan last year and missing the College Football Playoff. Six starters are back on offense from a unit that led the nation by scoring 45.7 Points-Per-Game and 531.5 total Yards-Per-Game. Sophomore quarterback C.J. Stroud erased any doubt if the Buckeyes’ offense would slow down after the departures of Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson in the Rose Bowl — he completed 37 of 46 passes for a whopping 573 yards with six touchdown passes and one interception despite those star wide receivers opting out of that game. Stroud shredded a strong Utah defense under head coach Kyle Whittingham. Sophomore Jaxon Smith-Njigba demonstrated he could handle the top dog responsibilities at wide receiver by catching 15 balls for 347 yards and three touchdowns. Ohio State also returns running back TreVeyon Henderson who ran for 1248 yards and 15 touchdowns last year. Henderson forced 50 missed tackles on his 183 carries. The Buckeyes' offense is going to be just fine. And their defense should be much improved with nine of their top ten tacklers back from a group that allowed 22.8 PPG, ranking 38th in the nation. Fourth-year head coach Jason Day tapped one of the best defensive coordinators in the nation Jim Knowles to come to Columbus to upgrade the defense. Ohio State had the top statistical defense in 2019 while serving as a pipeline into the NFL — so their decline the last two seasons maybe just a product of regression after so much attrition. The Buckeyes are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games in September. Notre Dame is full of optimism under first-year head coach Marcus Freeman — but the 36-year-old may experience growing pains in learning these new responsibilities. He was the Irish’s head coach in the Fiesta Bowl when they blew a 28-7 first-half lead. Eight starters return on defense from a group that ranked 15th in the nation by allowing just 19.7 PPG — but they fall to 43rd in the country in giving up 359.5 total YPG so this may be an overrated group that got exposed by the Cowboys in the bowl game. The loss of safety Kyle Hamilton to the NFL will really hurt. On offense, Freeman has tapped sophomore Tyler Buchner as his starting quarterback. He is a dual-threat QB who too often wanted to run the ball in his time on the field last season. Accuracy is an issue for him — as well as three interceptions in his 35 pass attempts. To compete with the Buckeyes, he will need to be productive with the passing game — and that is a skill set he has yet to demonstrate at a high level. He does have the best tight end in the nation in All-American Michael Mayer — but the Irish lack explosive talent at wide receiver to complement his skills. Senior Avery Davis is out the year with a torn ACL. Perhaps sophomore Lorenzo Styles has a breakout season? It is the lack of skill position talent that played a role in Brian Kelly defecting to LSU before the bowl game. And it is this perpetual lack of top-end talent that explains why Notre Dame tends to fall flat against elite competition after beating up on their usual schedule of Purdue, Navy, and Boston College. The Fighting Irish have lost ten straight games on the road against top-ten teams with an average losing margin of -16.4 PPG. They have lost 11 games in a row on the road against top-five opponents with an average losing margin of -19.6 PPG — and seven of those losses were by 17 or more points. Notre Dame just seems to hit a ceiling against the best teams in the nation. They lost at home to Cincinnati by a 24-13 score last year. They lost 34-10 to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game in 2020 before getting smoked by Alabama in the Playoff Semifinals by a 31-14 score. They got crushed in Ann Arbor against Michigan by a 45-14 score in 2019. They lost to Clemson in the Playoff Semifinals in 2018 by a 30-3 score. Even in 2018 at Miami (FL), they lost by a 41-8 score. This team is no stranger to blowout losses. They have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 road games with the total set in the 56.5 to 63 range. And they may be without their potential All-American center Jarrett Patterson who is dealing with a foot sprain. He was limited in practice this week and is listed as questionable.

FINAL TAKE: Two intangibles favor Ohio State. Knowles was the defensive coordinator for Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl — so not only did he prep extensively against the Irish but the early failures of his defense will remain fresh in his mind. Notre Dame only scored seven points in the scorn half of that game. Additionally, Day has experience coaching against Freeman’s defense back in 2019 when the Irish played Cincinnati. The Buckeyes raced out to a 28-0 halftime lead before cruising to a 42-0 victory. 25* CFB Saturday Night ABC-TV Game of the Month with the Ohio State Buckeyes (172) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (171). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the University of Texas-San Antonio Road Runners (224) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (223). THE SITUATION: UTSA (0-0) returns 13 starters from the 12-2 team that won the Conference USA title before losing to San Diego State in the Frisco Bowl by a 38-24 score. Houston (0-0) has 11 starters back from their 12-2 team that lost to Cincinnati in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game before beating Auburn by a 17-13 score in the Birmingham Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROADRUNNERS PLUS THE POINTS: UTSA returns eight starters on offense from the unit that finished 11th in the nation by scoring 36.9 Points-Per-Game. Sixth-year super senior Frank Harris is still under center — and he has his top four targets return in the passing game. Harris threw for 27 touchdowns last year while averaging 7.9 Yards-Per-Attempt. The dual-threat QB added 5.2 Yards-Per-Carry on the ground with 24 runs of more than 10 yards. The Roadrunners do lose running back Sincere McCormick to the NFL — but head coach Jeff Traylor brought in Trelon Smith from Arkansas as a transfer who has a career 5.2 Yards-Per-Carry mark. He will run behind an offensive line that has four returning starters and 121 combined starts of experience. UTSA has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games at home at the Alamodome — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home as an underdog getting up to seven points. This team has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games in September. Houston comes off an impressive season — but they benefited from playing the 67th hardest schedule in the nation. Senior Clayton Thune returns at quarterback for a team that scored 35.9 PPG — but the Cougars ranked just 58th in the nation by generating 5.8 Yards-Per-Play and they only ranked 68th in Success Rate on offense. Houston only averaged 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry on the ground — and they were just 115th in the nation in Rushing Success Rate. The defense under head coach Dana Holgorsen was quite good as they ranked sixth in the nation by holding their opponents to 301.1 total YPG — but this unit is going to take a step or two back. The Cougars lost two All-AAC players on the defensive line in Logan Hall and David Anehih — and the secondary must replace their starting cornerback duo.

FINAL TAKE: Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 32 road games when favored by up to 7 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. The Roadrunners are a talented and dangerous home dog who would love to knock off the Cougars. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the University of Texas-San Antonio Road Runners (224) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (223). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Old Dominion Monarchs (156) plus the points versus the Virginia Tech Hokies (155). THE SITUATION: Old Dominion (0-0) returns 17 starters from a team that finished 6-7 last year after a 30-17 loss to Tulsa in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. Virginia Tech (0-0) has 11 starters back from their team that also finished 6-7 after a 54-10 loss to Maryland in the Pinstripe Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MONARCHS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a sneaky hard game for the Hokies who begin the tenure of first-year head coach Brent Pry. The defensive coordinator for Penn State for the last 11 seasons is considered a genius on that side of the ball — but not only will the assistant coach for more than 30 seasons now have the challenge of being the head coach, but he will also no longer have blue-chip recruits on defense to implement his game plans. Recruiting declined significantly for this program under head coach Justin Fuente who was let go before completing his sixth year with the program. Virginia Tech had below .500 season in three of the last four seasons. Seven starters return on defense but this is a major rebuild for Pry and defensive coordinator Chris Marve from a unit that ranked 76th in the nation by allowing 393.3 total Yards-Per-Game. Long gone are the days of Bud Foster with his “lunch pail defense” identity implanted on the defensive unit. The offense was bleak last season with the Hokies scoring only 23.7 PPG. Pry brought in third-year sophomore Grant Wells as a transfer from Marshall to run the offense — but while he demonstrated promise as a freshman with his strong arm, he is too loose with the football with 22 interceptions in his career including 13 last year. Wells will be throwing to a revamped group of receivers after 103 of the 173 catches last year came from players that are no longer on the team including do-it-all running back Raheem Blackshear. It looks like Pry wants the offense to become a run-first attack — and he poached Wisconsin offensive line coach Joe Rudolph to coach the offensive line — but it will take time to build this offense into something like how the Badgers operate. In the meantime, Virginia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on the road. They will face a feisty and confident opponent in Old Dominion. After not playing in 2020 because of the pandemic, the Monarchs understandably started slowly under first-year head coach Ricky Rahne. But the team kept fighting and won five of their last six games after Rahne made a change at quarterback by turning to sophomore Hayden Wolff. After only averaging 19 PPG and 300.4 total YPG in their first five games, Old Dominion scored 28.1 PPG and generated 399.7 total YPG in their seven contests. Junior running back Blake Watson up his rushing average from 84.8 rushing YPG to 111.7 rushing YPG after Wolff took over as the starting quarterback. Ten starters are back on offense for this team including four on the offensive line. Five of the top six receivers are back as well. On defense, five of the top six tacklers are back from a group that held their final six opponents to 22 PPG. All four starters return on the defensive line from a group that ranked 29th in Expected Points Allowed per opponent rushing attempt and 11th in opponent Rush Explosiveness. The Monarchs also ranked 16th in the nation by giving up just 41 plays of 20 or more yards. Old Dominion has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in September — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home.

FINAL TAKE: Pry and Rahne coached together at Penn State when Rahne was an offensive coordinator in Happy Valley from 2018-2019. While there will be familiarity between these two coaches, Rahne has the edge when it comes to knowing his players. Virginia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the ACC — and the Monarchs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams outside their conference (as they enter the Sun Belt from Conference USA this season). 10* CFB Virginia Tech-Old Dominion ESPNU Special with the Old Dominion Monarchs (156) plus the points versus the Virginia Tech Hokies (155). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the West Virginia Mountaineers (143) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Panthers (144). THE SITUATION: West Virginia (0-0) returns 11 starters from the team that finished 6-7 after an 18-6 loss to Minnesota in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. Pittsburgh (0-0) has 15 starters return from their group that finished 11-3 after a 31-21 loss to Michigan State in the Peach Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS PLUS THE POINTS: West Virginia head coach Neal Brown is on the hot seat in his fourth season in Morgantown — but he made two significant moves for the offensive side of the ball to improve a unit that ranked 87th in the FBS last season by allowing 371.3 total Yards-Per-Game. Brown lured offensive coordinator Graham Harrell to install his Air Raid offense after he was let go from USC when they brought in Lincoln Riley. Harrell is considered one of the brightest young offensive minds in college football (and perhaps the brains behind the Kliff Kingsbury offenses at Texas Tech). But an even bigger get was the acquisition of quarterback J.T. Daniels from Georgia. I think Daniels is a credible Long Shot Bet to win the Heisman Trophy (200-1 odds at the Westgate earlier this week). He graduated early from his high school in South Anaheim and was recruited to play at USC as the High School National Player of the Year. He threw for over 12,000 yards in high school with 152 touchdown passes — and he was groomed to be the Trojans’ immediate starter as a freshman as they began their post-Sam Darnold era in 2018. He had 11 starts in that first year while showing flashes of brilliance including completing 26 of 31 passes in the first half of the Notre Dame game. But injuries held him back — and in his sophomore season with Harrell in his first year at USC as the offensive coordinator, he suffered a season-ending injury in the opening game of the 2019 season. That injury cost him the starting job — so he entered the transfer portal and chose Georgia. But coming off knee surgery, the onset of the COVID pandemic with its impact on practice time did Daniels no favors when competing against the steady hand of senior Stetson Bennett IV. When the Bulldogs fell to 4-2 on the season after a 44-29 loss to Florida, head coach Kirby Smart turned to Daniels as his starting quarterback for the final four games. Not only did Georgia win all four games, but Daniels demonstrated his vast potential by completing 80 of 119 passes for 1231 yards with ten touchdown passes and just two interceptions. The Bulldogs' offense averaged 37.3 Points-Per-Game in those final four games with Daniels’ strong arm unlocking a big-play element to the offense that did not exist with Bennett. Many forget that Daniels began last season as the incumbent starter for Georgia to open the 2021 season. The Bulldogs pulled off a 10-3 upset win in that game — but Daniels did not lead the team to a touchdown drive (Georgia’s defense set the tone that would define their National Championship season by scoring on a pick-six). Daniels completed 22 of 30 passes but in what was a low-risk game plan from offensive coordinator Todd Monken as he passes for just 135 yards. An oblique injury kept him out of the following game against UAB which gave Bennett another chance under center — and the former walk-on and fifth-year senior took full advantage by completing 10 of 12 passes for 288 yards and five touchdown passes. Daniels was ready to play the next week against South Carolina — and he completed 23 of 31 passes for 303 yards with three touchdown passes in the start to lead the Bulldogs to a 40-13 victory. But then a lat injury held him back the next week in a game where he split time with Bennett who continued to play at a very high level while protecting the football. Daniels would only throw 94 passes all season with 68 completions, 722 yards, and seven touchdown passes. He was perched to reclaim the starting quarterback job from Bennett if the Bulldogs ever stumbled — but Georgia had a spot in the playoffs locked before the SEC Championship Game where they lost to Alabama but having it only cost them in the final four seeding. Bennett would lead Georgia to the National Championship and was coming back as a super sixth-year senior. Daniels decided to transfer to a program where he could win the starting job while showing off his talents for the next level. He has three returning starters at wide receiver and a potential rising star in sophomore Kaden Prather who had a big spring. Junior Tony Mathis, Jr. is back at running back after peaching at the end of last season. All five starters return on the offensive line. Defense has been the calling card for Brown’s teams at West Virginia. After finishing fourth in the nation in total defense in 2020, the Mountaineers held their opponents to 350.1 total YPG, ranking 37th in the nation. This unit was 12th in the nation by allowing just 3.78 points per opponent’s quality possession. Four starters return — but Brown brought in seven FBS transfers and three junior college players to bolster the unit in this critical season. Six of the top seven players on the depth chart return on their defensive line which should help them tonight against a Panthers team that will likely return to focusing on their ground game. Pittsburgh is learning to live life without Kenny Pickett under center after he has been their starting quarterback for the last five seasons. Not only did he leave for the NFL, but offensive coordinator Mark Whipple left to become the OC at Nebraska. The Panthers were third in the nation by scoring 41.4 PPG — but without Whipple to challenge head coach Pat Narduzzi to embrace some of the principles of modern football, Pitt may return to “three yards and a cloud of dust”. Given that Narduzzi replaced Whipple with Boston College offensive coordinator and the former OC for Jeff Fisher for the St. Louis Rams, the successful passing attack that the Panthers had last year may be history. Remember, Pitt averaged only 21.2 PPG just two seasons ago. Ironically, Narduzzi recruited Kedon Slovis to transfer over to take over under center from USC — and it was Slovis who took the job away from Daniels in 2019 after his early season-ending injury. Slovis struggled last year during the Trojans’ 4-8 season — he completed 193 of 297 passes for 2153 yards with 11 touchdown passes but eight interceptions in a lost season where they lost four of their first seven games en route to a 4-8 finish with Helton fired midseason. Slovis was eventually benched for yet another highly touted freshman in Jaxson Dart — and he was not in the team’s plans when Riley brought his star sophomore quarterback with him from Oklahoma, Caleb Williams. The Panthers return seven on defense — but they may have lost two much star power from last year’s unit. The decision of former captain Cam Bright to transfer to Washington may be telling. The linebacker led a stout front seven — but this defense too often got burned when playing too aggressively. They ranked 115th in the nation by allowing 264.3 passing YPG — a bright sign for Daniels to open his season on a strong note. Pitt has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games at home when laying 7.5 to 14 points.

FINAL TAKE: The X-factor tonight is Harrell who not only has a previous history coaching Daniels — but he has been Slovis’ offensive coordinator for the entirety of his collegiate career. He will have the insight to help the Mountaineers’ defense. West Virginia has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games in September — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB West Virginia-Pittsburgh ESPN Special with the West Virginia Mountaineers (143) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Panthers (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (287) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (288) in the College Football National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Georgia (13-1) reached the National Championship Game with their 34-11 victory against Michigan in the CFP Semifinals as a 7.5-point favorite on December 31st. Alabama (13-1) joined them in the Finals by winning their eighth game in a row with their 27-7 victory against Cincinnati as a 12.5-point favorite on the last day of 2021. This game will be played on a neutral field at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Georgia dominated a stout Wolverines team — they went into the locker room with a 27-3 lead. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 40 games on the road after scoring at least 24 points in the first half in their last game. Georgia has one of the best defenses in college football in years — they held their opponents to just 9.6 Points-Per-Game and 259.4 total Yards-Per-Game this season. But the exciting dynamic for Bulldogs’ fans is the continued development of their offense with Stetson Bennett under center. The senior quarterback torched an outstanding Michigan defense by completing 20 of 30 passes for 313 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. He has improved to become much more than a game manager. In his last two games against Alabama and Michigan — two of the best defenses in the nation — Bennett has completed 49 of 78 passes for 653 yards and a robust 8.37 Yards-Per-Attempt average. He has six touchdown passes in those two games — and he adds a threat with his legs by running for 43 yards in those contests. It helps Bennett to have a loaded wide receiver corps bolstered by the return of junior George Pickens who missed most of the season after tearing his ACL in the spring. The Bulldogs are tough to beat when they have a strong offensive attack that comes close to matching their elite defense from season to season. Georgia has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread 22 of their last 32 games on the road after passing for at least 350 yards in their last contest. The X-factor for this Bulldogs’ team is having fourth-year junior J.T. Daniels as an option if Georgia falls behind early once again in this rematch of the SEC Championship Game. The former five-star USC recruit is a gunslinger who led the Bulldogs to a 4-0 record in his four starts last year with the team scoring 37.3 PPG. Daniels unlocks the big-play potential of this offense with his strong arm. Head coach Kirby Smart has been reluctant to turn to Daniels since it would throw fuel on the fire of a quarterback controversy — but that concern goes out the window in the final game of the season. Georgia has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. They have covered the point spread in all 5 of their games this season with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. And in their last 15 games played on a neutral field when favored, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 11 of these games. It is telling that the bookies installed Georgia as the small favorite. Outside the Sagarin Power Ratings (one I don’t pay much attention to, for what that is worth), most of the various power ranking systems conclude that the Bulldogs should be favored (by at least three points). While that does not mean everything to me, it does mean something. Alabama has probably played their best two games of the season in their last two in beating Georgia in the SEC Championship Game and then overwhelming Cincinnati. Do these two games represent the continued growth and development of this team under head coach Nick Saban? Sure, I give credit to Saban for having his team peaking at the right time. On other hand, college football teams tend to not play their best three games consecutively — so I do expect a performance that comes back down to the season-long numbers that the Crimson Tide demonstrated (that the power rankings systems are evaluating in listing them as a dog now). This Alabama team that survived close scares against LSU, Arkansas, Auburn, and Florida (and who lost to a backup quarterback leading Texas A&M) may not be able to help themselves from suffering a letdown. As it is, the Crimson Tide has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by at least 21 points. They raced out to a 17-3 halftime lead against the Bearcats — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after holding their last opponent to no more than three points in the first half of their last game. Alabama dominated Cincinnati in the ground game by rushing for 301 yards and outgaining them by +227 net rushing yards. But the Crimson Tide have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least +125 net yards. Alabama dominated the Bearcats by outgaining them by +264 net yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +175 net yards. The Crimson Tide has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in January (when they tend to be overvalued by the betting public) — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 appearances in the National Championship Game. Alabama has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games played on a neutral field as an underdog of three points or less.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia will have an extra edge on their mind in wanting revenge from their 41-21 upset loss as a 6-point favorite in the SEC Championship Game on December 4th. Remember, the Bulldogs did not need to win that game — so some of their best plays and concepts (especially on defense) were held back in case of this rematch. Alabama had to leave everything on the table in that game. Georgia has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 road games when avenging an upset loss to their opponent. 25* College Football Game of the Year with the Georgia Bulldogs (287) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (283) plus the points versus the Mississippi Rebels (284) in the Sugar Bowl. THE SITUATION: Baylor (11-2) won their fourth straight game with their 21-16 upset victory as a 7-point underdog against Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship Game on December 4th. Mississippi (10-2) is on a four-game winning streak with seven victories in their last eight game with their 31-21 upset win at Mississippi State as a 2.5-point underdog on November 25th in the Egg Bowl. This game is being played on a neutral field at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Baylor should build off their momentum in this game as they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after pulling off an upset win as a 7-point underdog against a Big 12 rival. The Bears have relied on redshirt freshman Blake Shapen at quarterback in the last two games due to the hamstring injury suffered by incumbent starter Gerry Bohanon. But while Shapen is dealing with a shoulder injury now, Bohanan is expected to play which gives Baylor more of a running threat under center as well as the quarterback who engineered their upsets of Oklahoma and Kansas State in November along with Iowa State in October. Led by head coach Dave Aranda, Baylor allows only 19.2 PPG — and that number drops to 17.8 PPG they allowed in their six games played away from home. The Bears have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog. Baylor has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field. Mississippi got outgained by Mississippi State five weeks ago by a 420-88 yardage margin while losing the first down battle, 30-23. They won that game by thwarting the Bulldogs in the red zone. The Rebels have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win as a road underdog. Ole Miss has won all four of their games in their winning streak by double-digits — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning two in a row by 10 or more points against conference rivals. The Rebels have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last games played after a bye week.

FINAL TAKE: Baylor has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Baylor Bears (283) plus the points versus the Mississippi Rebels (284). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (280) plus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (279) in the Citrus Bowl. THE SITUATION: Iowa (10-3) looks to bounce-back from their 42-3 loss to Michigan in the Big Ten Conference Championship Game as an 11.5-point underdog on December 4th. Kentucky (9-3) is on a three-game winning streak after their 52-21 upset victory at Louisville as a 3-point underdog on November 27th. This game will be played on a neutral field at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES PLUS THE POINTS: Iowa will have something to prove to get the bad taste out of their mouth from the ugly loss to the Wolverines four weeks ago. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by at least 35 points to a Big Ten rival in their last game. Iowa is also 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The Hawkeyes should respond with a strong effort on defense after not allowing more than 27 points all season before the Big Ten Championship Game. Iowa ranks 12th in the nation in Expected Points Allowed Per Play — and they only allowed 19.2 Points-Per-Game this season. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the Big Ten — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog. The Hawkeyes thrive when they force turnovers — they had a +22 net turnover margin to begin the season which fueled their 6-0 start. They forced multiple turnovers in eight games and ended the season with a +14 net turnover margin. They now face a Wildcats team prone to turning the ball over. Kentucky has a -13 net turnover margin after playing five games where they turned the ball over at least three times. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after pulling off an upset as a road underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset victory by at least 14 points. Kentucky overwhelmed Louisville by controlling the clock for 35:04 minutes and generating 29 first downs. But the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after playing a game where they had at least 24 first downs and were on offense for at least 34 minutes. Kentucky has scored 108 points in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 42 points in two straight contests. They will be without their second wideout target in Josh Ali who is out with an injury. But the Wildcats pass defense is vulnerable as they rank 110th in Pass Success Rate.

FINAL TAKE: Kentucky has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field as a favorite. Iowa has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 bowl games under head coach Kirk Ferentz. 10* CFB Kentucky-Iowa ABC-TV Special with the Iowa Hawkeyes (280) plus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (279). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Penn State Nittany Lions (276) plus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (275) in the Outback Bowl. THE SITUATION: Penn State (7-5) has dropped two of their last three games after their 30-27 upset loss at Michigan State as a 3.5-point favorite on November 27th. This game will be played on a neutral field at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NITTANY LIONS PLUS THE POINTS: Penn State is dealing with a handful of opt-outs on both sides of the ball — but this bowl game is the first opportunity for head coach James Franklin to begin working for next season after being on the shortlist for several of the high-profile head coaching jobs last month. This will be a motivated team, particularly on defense with new defensive coordinator Manny Diaz already coaching his first game after he was let go as the Miami (FL) head coach. Franklin recruits well — the cupboard is not bare despite the opt-outs. And this is a team that lost four games by one scoring possession including a four-point loss to Michigan and a field goal loss at Iowa. The Nittany Lions also endured a heartbreaking loss to Illinois in nine overtimes — so this could easily be a nine or ten-win team. They should play well this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 7 straight games after failing to cover the point spread twice in their last three games. Penn State only gained 61 yards on the ground against the Spartans — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for at least 75 yards in their last game. Franklin will have the best quarterback on the field in this game in junior Sean Clifford who completed 23 of 34 throws for 313 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions against Michigan State. He has blossomed this season under first-year offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich with 20 Big Time Throws which were more than what he had accomplished in his previous two seasons as the Penn State starting quarterback. It is the defense that is the stronger unit for this team. The Nittany Lions ranked fifth in the nation by allowing just 16.8 Points-Per-Game — they are in the top-38 nationally in both run and pass defense. Arkansas is just 6-17-1 ATS in their last 24 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Razorbacks are dealing with several opt-outs as well including their top wide receiver Treylon Burks and defensive lineman Tre Williams who is in trouble with Johnny Law after getting arrested for DUI. The loss of Burks is troublesome since no other wide receiver on the team had more than 33 targets this season. Arkansas does lean heavily on the run as they ran the ball 64% of the time this season — but they will be facing a stout Penn State defense that holds opposing rushers to just 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry. The Razorbacks have allowed their last three opponents to 431.7 total Yards-Per-Game. Arkansas is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Arkansas is 5-11-2 ATS in their last 18 games against non-conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored on a neutral field. Penn State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field — and they are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games against non-conference opponents. 10* CFB Arkansas-Penn State ESPN Special with the Penn State Nittany Lions (276) plus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (269) minus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (270) in the College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Georgia (12-1) looks to rebound from their 41-24 upset loss to Alabama as a 6-point favorite in the SEC Championship Game on December 4th. Michigan (12-1) won their fifth straight game with their 42-3 victory against Iowa as an 11.5-point favorite in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 4th. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Georgia did not need to beat the Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship since their spot in the college football playoff was assured with their undefeated record at the time. Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs coaching staff likely saved some of their tricks for the playoffs and a possible rematch with Alabama in a potential National Championship Game. The 17-point loss with the defense surrendering 536 total yards should have ensured that Smart had a captive audience in practice in preparation for this game. Georgia has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after a point spread loss. The encouraging aspect of that setback was the play of quarterback Stetson Bennett who completed 29 of 48 passes for 340 yards with three touchdown passes against the Alabama defense. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Georgia had not allowed more than 17 points in all of their games this season before facing off against the Crimson Tide in SEC Championship Game. The Crimson Tide only averaged 4.4 Yards-Per-Carry in their rushing attack — but they shellshocked the Bulldogs’ defense behind the arm of quarterback Bryce Young who completed 26 of 44 passes for 421 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. Only two other opponents passed for more than 214 yards against them this season. I do not see Michigan quarterback Cade McNamara being able to approach those numbers that won Young the Heisman Trophy. McNamara is a game-manager who did not attempt more than 17 passes in a game until the Wolverines’ fifth game in October — and that was influenced by the Wolverines’ inability to run the football at Wisconsin. Michigan has thrown the ball more than 38 times twice this season. They want to ground-and-pound — but good luck doing that against the Georgia defense that ranks third in the nation by allowing only 81.7 rushing yards per game — and held opposing rushers to just 2.6 Yards-Per-Carry. The Bulldogs’ defensive line is huge — they average a height of 6’4 with a weight of 307 points. The Wolverines want to run inside-zone blocking plays — but Georgia thrives when thwarting that approach. Georgia only allowed one team to gain more than 127 rushing yards this season — and that was a Florida team that lost 34-7 to the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs held eight of their opponents to under 10 points — and they shut out three teams. Alabama only managed 115 rushing yards which were the most Georgia had allowed in four games. Michigan offense slows down significantly if they cannot get their ground game going. They averaged only 2.6 YPC against Wisconsin but benefitted from three early turnovers to take control of that game. They only averaged 3.5 YPC against Penn State in a tense 21-17 victory in Happy Valley. They managed only 112 rushing yards from 38 carries for a 2.94 YPC average against Rutgers in a 20-13 win against a 5-7 Scarlet Knights team.

FINAL TAKE: The Wolverines have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field as an underdog. Georgia has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in December — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games played on a neutral field when favored. 10* CFB Friday Night Discounted Deal with the Georgia Bulldogs (269) minus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (270). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bearcats (273) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (274) in the Cotton Bowl college football playoff semifinals. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (13-0) remained undefeated this season with their 35-20 victory against Houston in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game as a 10.5-point favorite on December 4th. Alabama (12-1) won their seventh straight game with a 41-24 victory against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game as a 6-point underdog on December 4th. This game will be played on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Alabama played the best game of their season to overwhelm the Bulldogs and secure their spot in the playoffs. Even with Nick Saban having four weeks to prepare for this game, a letdown is likely. The Crimson Tide is staring at a Group of Five opponent — even after Saban warning them how good this Bearcats team is. As it is, Alabama has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while they raced out to a 24-17 halftime lead, Alabama has then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. Generating a +2 net turnover edge in that game played a big role — but the Tide have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover advantage. This remains a team that was just 5-5 ATS against teams playing in bowl games this season. Besides losing to a multi-loss Texas A&M team using a backup quarterback, they survived one-possession games against LSU, Arkansas, Florida and a four-overtime affair with Auburn. Incidentally, they were laying at least 14.5 points as the favorite in all those games. Up until this point, this year’s incarnation is not as dominant as Saban’s National Championship group last season. The offensive line has been given up too many sacks — Bama ranks 67th in Sack Rate allowed and that drops to 75th on passing downs. The running back room is depleted with injures. Drives stall inside the 10-yard line given their ranking 66th in the nation in Goal-to-Go scoring rate. And there are some tough injuries on both sides of the ball with starting cornerback Josh Jobe out with a foot injury and wide receiver John Metchie out the season with the torn ACL he suffered against Georgia. Alabama may not have a reliable second option at receiver (even with all the young talent) to compliment Ohio State transfer Jameson Williams. Cincinnati is loaded with talent in their secondary — headlined by three future NFL players in cornerbacks Ahmad Gardner and Coby Bryant along with safety Bryan Cook. This gives defensive coordinator Mike Tressel some intriguing matchup options. Tressel is one of the best in the business with an established track record as the defensive coordinator at Michigan State. He can do some things to make sophomore quarterback Bryce Young uncomfortable. Cincinnati has momentum with three straight point spread covers after their comfortable victory against a talented Cougars team. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. Despite being on offense for only 19:41 minutes, they averaged 8.89 Yards-Per-Play to generate 400 yards of offense against Houston — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after averaging at least 7.25 YPP. They held the Cougars to just 86 rushing yards in that game as well — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after not allowing at least 100 rushing yards in their last game. The defense allows only 16.1 PPG. They are led by a four-year starting quarterback in Desmond Ridder who will be drafted into the NFL. The Bearcats have covered the point spread in 6 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games as an underdog. And in their last 6 games against non-conference opponents, they have covered the point spread in 5 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati has proven they can match the physicality of elite programs in their 24-13 victory against Notre Dame this season and their 3-point loss to Georgia in the Peach Bowl last year. The Bearcats might have upset the Bulldogs last year if not for the first half injury to left tackle James Hudson — they surrendered six sacks in the second half. The Fighting Irish have only lost twice in South Bend in the last four seasons — to Georgia and this Cincinnati team. The Bearcats will not be intimidated. 25* CFB Game of the Month with the Cincinnati Bearcats (273) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Arizona State Sun Devils (261) plus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (262) in the Las Vegas Bowl. THE SITUATION: Arizona State (8-4) won their third game in their last four games after their 38-15 win against Arizona as a 20-point favorite on November 27th. Wisconsin (8-4) had their seven-game winning streak snapped in a 23-13 upset loss at Minnesota as a 7-point favorite on November 27th. This game will be played on a neutral field at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUN DEVILS PLUS THE POINTS: There has been a COVID outbreak with the Badgers team — and I still cannot get credible information regarding the extent of this situation. So, it is prudent to assume that key Wisconsin is not impacted (and so I am not upgrading the rating of this play). Regardless of that, this is a letdown spot for the Badgers after they blew their golden opportunity to play for a Big Ten championship if they would have just taken care of business against the Golden Gophers. Motivation is a question in a second-tier bowl game. As it is, Wisconsin has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss on the road. The Badgers have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a double-digit upset loss as a road favorite. Scoring has been a persistent problem for this team as they averaged only 25.8 Points-Per-Game this season. They scored no more than 20 points five times. Sophomore quarterback Graham Mertz was supposed to raise the level of play on offense for this program as their most decorated incoming recruit at quarterback two years ago — prompting Jack Coan to transfer to Notre Dame. But Wisconsin ranks 116th in the nation in Pass Success Rate and 123rd in the nation in Pass Explosiveness. The Badgers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring no more than 20 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score at least 14 points in their last game. The laptops have loved Wisconsin all season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when laying 3.5 to 10 points as the favorite. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games played on a neutral field as a favorite. Arizona State had high expectations this season but was a disappointment with four losses. The down point of the year was two nightmare halves of football where they were outscored by Utah and Washington State by a 56-7 margin. But a bowl game offers this team an opportunity to make some amends to underachieving relative to their preseason hype. They should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win against a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning two of their last three games. They have opt-outs at running back, wide receiver, and in their back-seven on defense. Those were all positions that were considered areas of depth going back to August — so this game offers opportunities to those players who did not get as much playing time as they hoped. Head coach Herm Edwards is recruiting well for this program. They are led by a third-year starting quarterback in Jayden Daniels — and he is supported by an offensive line that led the nation in Line Yards and helped them rank seventh in the nation in Rush Success Rate. The Sun Devils have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set at 42 or less — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams from the Big Ten.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona State has been shaky as a favorite — but they are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog. Wisconsin has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. 10* CFB Thursday Late Show Bailout with the Arizona State Sun Devils (261) plus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (262). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Panthers (259) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (260) in the Peach Bowl. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (11-2) is on a five-game winning streak after their 45-21 victory against Wake Forest as a 3.5-point favorite in the ACC Championship Game on December 4th. Michigan State (10-2) won their second game in their last three games with their 30-27 upset win against Penn State as a 3.5-point underdog on November 27th. This game will be played on a neutral field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh opened as a 4.5-point favorite before the news that quarterback Kenny Pickett would forego this game to prepare for the NFL draft. The Spartans are now laying about 3.5 points in most locations — and they will be without their top offensive player in running back Kenneth Walker who is opting out of this game to prepare for the NFL draft. So, is the value of Pickett worth 8 points plus the loss of Walker? I like Pickett — but I don’t think so. Let’s talk Pitt. They have a capable backup in redshirt junior Nick Patti who has been Pickett’s backup for three seasons. Patti completed 23 of 37 passes substituting for Pickett in September of his freshman year against Delaware in 2017 for 271 yards with two touchdown passes. Patti has completed 12 of 14 passes for 140 yards this season. In his career, Patti has completed 40 of 62 passes for a 64.5% completion percentage, a 10.0 Yards-Per-Attempt mark, and only one interception. A key tell regarding how Pitt feels about him was on a fourth-and-one in the second half against Virginia when Pickett had to leave the field because of a short-term injury. Rather than kick a field goal or dial up a running play, offensive coordinator Mark Whipple trusted Patti to deliver a pass — and he drew a pass interference penalty for the first down. Patti has practiced with the first-team offense preparing for this game — and that includes Biletnikoff Award winner Jordan Addison who caught 93 balls for 1479 yards and 17 touchdowns. Patti should have success against a Spartans defense that ranked 106th in Pass Success Rate Allowed. Pitt has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a win by 17 or more points. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while they held the Demon Deacons to just 295 yards on a just 3.47 Yards-Per-Play — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 3.75 Yards-Per-Play in their last game. Michigan State relied on Walker to take almost 60% of their rushing attempts this season — he averaged a robust 6.2 Yards-Per-Carry. Freshman Jordan Simmons averages 4.2 YPC — but he is a dropoff. The Spartans will struggle to run the football against this stout Panthers' run defense that ranked fifth in the nation by allowing just 2.7 Yards-Per-Carry. Pitt has had a top-ten run defense for two straight seasons under head coach Pat Narduzzi — and they have held their last six opponents to under 3.0 YPC. Michigan State quarterback Payton Thorne has not been as effective when relied on to be the primary source of the offense. He comes off his two worst games this season in a drubbing against Ohio State before their upset win against Penn State. Pro Football Focus gave him grades below 60 for both games — and he had three turnover-worthy plays with zero Big Time Throws in those contests. Sparty relies on big plays — Thorne had a PFF rating of 92.0 on throws of at least air yards. But on throws less than 20 air yards, his PFF grade drops to 72.0 (C- range if graded by a teacher). The Panthers rank a solid 36th in the nation in Pass Explosiveness Allowed. Michigan State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after an upset win at home. They are also just 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games after a point spread win.

FINAL TAKE: The Spartans have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games in the second half of the season. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the ACC. Look for the Panthers to be inspired to prove they were more than just a Heisman Trophy Finalist at quarterback — and Narduzzi would love to beat his old team where he served as defensive coordinator for years. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Game of the Year with the Pittsburgh Panthers (259) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (260). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (257) plus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (258) in the Music City Bowl. THE SITUATION: Purdue (8-4) is on a two-game winning streak after their 44-7 victory against Indiana as an 18.5-point favorite on November 27th. Tennessee (7-5) has won two in a row after their 45-21 victory against Vanderbilt as a 33-point favorite on November 27th. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Nissan Stadium in Nashville.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BOILERMAKERS PLUS THE POINTS: Purdue has a gunslinger quarterback and a stout defense -- this combo should keep them competitive in this bowl game. Aidan O’Connell completed 73.5% of his passes for 3178 yards with 28 touchdown passes and just eight interceptions while averaging 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt. In his last four games, O’Connell completed 77% of his passes with a 407 passing YPG average with 14 touchdown passes and no interceptions. He will be without two of his favorite targets in David Bell and Milton Wright. Bell is opting out to prepare for the NFL and Wright is injured. But O’Connell still has plenty of reliable targets in an offense that ranked eighth in the nation by averaging 340.2 passing Yards-Per-Game: Jackson Anthrop caught 48 passes for 496 yards with five touchdowns; wide receiver T.J. Sheffield caught 33 passes for 264 yards with four touchdowns; tight end Payne Durham caught 40 passes for 382 yards and four touchdowns. The Boilermakers’ defense held opponents to just 20.5 PPG and 341.7 total YPG. Purdue was 21st in the nation by holding their opponents to just 194.6 passing YPG. They rank 28th in opponent’s Success Rate on defense — and they rank 20th in the nation in Expected Points Allowed per Play. The Boilermakers pulled off upsets against Michigan State and Iowa earlier in the season when they were both ranked in the top-five in the nation at the time. After losing to Ohio State in mid-November, Purdue bounced back to beat Northwestern by a 32-14 score before their win against the Hoosiers to end their regular season. The Boilermakers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 14 points in two straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning two games in a row by double-digits against Big Ten opponents. They have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games as an underdog under head coach Jeff Brohm. Tennessee has been inconsistent all season. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 29 games after a straight-up win — and they are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 games after a win by at least 20 points. The Volunteers rushed for 285 yards against the Commodores — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Tennessee has a potent offense that averages 38.8 PPG — but they also allow 27.5 PPG and 404.6 total YPG. On the road, the Volunteers give up 39.0 PPG and 521.8 total YPG in their four games away from Knoxville. The Tennessee pass defense allows 251.4 passing YPG — they allow 7.1 Yards-Per-Attempt and rank 62nd in Pass Success Rate allowed. The Vols fail to generate much of a pass rush — they rank 116th in their Pass Rush Grade. O’Connell thrives in clean pockets — Pro Football Focus grades him at 92.2 when not under pressure with an adjusted completed percentage of 80.8%.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams with a winning record — and Purdue has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. The Volunteers have a geographical advantage with this game being played a few hours west in Nashville from their Knoxville campus — but if you think this afternoon game is going to attract enough Tennessee fans who are going to be consistently loud enough for this bowl game to disrupt the snap count of the Boilermakers on offense, then I have some beachside property in Tennessee I would like to sell you. Most of the Tennessee players have probably never played in Nissan Stadium — so there is not a familiarity advantage. The relative advantage of having more fans cheering in a bowl game is perhaps the most overrated intangible deployed by lazy pundits. This is not “white-out” night game in Knoxville against a hated rival; it's a quicker bus ride. 10* CFB Music City Bowl ESPN Special with the Purdue Boilermakers (257) plus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (258). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 AM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the South Carolina Gamecocks (255) plus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (256) in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. THE SITUATION: South Carolina (6-6) enters this bowl game coming off a 30-0 shutout loss to Clemson as an 11.5-point underdog on November 27th. North Carolina (6-6) has lost two of their last three games after their 34-30 loss at North Carolina State as a 5.5-point underdog on November 26th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GAMECOCKS PLUS THE POINTS: South Carolina exceeded expectations this season in the first year of rookie head coach Shane Beamer. The son of legendary head coach Frank Beamer lacked head coaching experience after serving as the assistant head coach and tight end’s coach at Oklahoma from 2018-2020. Beamer inherited 14 starters from a team that finished 2-8 last season. The Gamecocks have steadily improved this season — and upset victories against Florida and Auburn in November put them in a position to be bowl eligible. Beamer will be using sixth-year senior Zeb Noland at quarterback this afternoon after injuries at the position compelled him to the graduate assistant to remove his coaching duties to take the field. Noland was originally recruited by Iowa State before playing at North Dakota State. In four starts, Noland made six “big-time” throws while only committing one turnover-worthy play. He protects the football which will help the defense keep South Carolina in the game. The Gamecocks only gained 206 yards against the stout Clemson defense — but they are then 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. Senior quarterback Jason Brown is in the transfer portal and sophomore quarterback Luke Doty suffered a season-ending injury in October — so this will be Noland’s game. Running back ZaQuandre White is opting out of this game to prepare for the NFL — but South Carolina has freshman MarShawn Lloyd to turn to as he prepares to take on the lead back role next season. Lloyd is a former top-50 recruit. The Gamecocks have a good defense that ranks in the top-30 in opponent Finishing Drives. South Carolina also ranked seventh in the nation by allowing only 178.8 passing YPG — and they were tied for tenth in the FBS with 15 interceptions. The Gamecocks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 bowl games. North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Tar Heels generated 299 yards on the ground against the Wolfpack — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 38 games after rushing for at least 275 yards in their last game. North Carolina has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a bye week. Quarterback Sam Howell is playing in his last game for the Tar Heels before preparing for the NFL draft — but the problem for this team all season has been their defense. North Carolina allows 31.6 PPG and 407.8 total Yards-Per-Game. The Tar Heels were also winless in their five games away from home with the offense sputtering with just 23.8 PPG. Pass protection was an ongoing problem with North Carolina surrendering 45 sacks. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the ACC.

FINAL TAKE: South Carolina has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing on a neutral field — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games played on a neutral field as an underdog. North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played on a neutral field. 10* CFB Duke’s Mayo Bowl ESPN Special with the South Carolina Gamecocks (255) plus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (256). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (252) minus the point(s) versus the Iowa State Cyclones (251) in the Cheez-It Bowl. THE SITUATION: Clemson (9-3) won their fifth straight game to close out the regular season with a 30-0 victory at South Carolina as an 11.5-point favorite on November 27th. Iowa State (7-5) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 48-14 victory against TCU as a 16-point favorite on November 26th. This game will be played on a neutral field at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Clemson took a step back this season due to the drop-off in play at quarterback. Sophomore D.J. Uiagalelei struggled to fill the big shoes left by Trevor Lawrence who left for the NFL after his junior season. Yet the Tigers got their offense going late in the season by scoring at least 30 points in each of their games during their five-game winning streak. Led by the running back duo of Kobe Pace and Will Shipley, Clemson became run-focused who averaged 171 rushing YPG for the season with 598 rushing yards in their last two contests. And the Tigers defense remained elite all season — they allowed only 15.0 Points-Per-Game and 309.3 total Yards-Per-Game. The Clemson defense ranked third in the nation in Rush Success Rate allowed and third in Finishing Drives. They also only allowed eight “explosive” drives that averaged at least 10 Yards-Per-Play in the 154 drives they defended. Head coach Dabo Swinney lost both his coordinators, Tony Elliott and Brent Venables, to head coaching jobs at Virginia and Oklahoma — but he promoted from within with assistants very familiar with the schemes and hungry to make an impression. None of Swinney’s players opted out for this bowl game — this is the first game of the 2021-22 season for this group who should be very motivated. The Tigers should continue to build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after a win by 20 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after a point spread win. Clemson has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored. Iowa State had high expectations but those dreams were snatched from early losses to Iowa and Baylor in their first four games. They crushed the Horned Frogs to end their regular season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win and they are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a win by 20 or more points. Furthermore, the Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. The Iowa State offense will be without star running back Breece Hall who has opted out for the NFL draft. The Cyclones are left with just sophomore Jirehl Brock at running back who averaged only 2.1 yards after contact in a disappointing campaign this season. Senior quarterback Brock Purdy was also underwhelming this year — he had 11 turnover-worthy plays and fumbled the football another seven times. He was sacked 21 times behind an offensive line that ranked only 47th in Havoc Rate Allowed — a frightening number when facing this elite Clemson defensive line. The Cyclones defense ranked outside the top-70 in Rushing Success Rate Allowed — and they were 74th in Pass Success Rate Allowed on passing downs. Iowa State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record  — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December -- and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a neutral field. Clemson has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 16 games in December — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 bowl games. 25* CFB Wednesday ESPN Game of the Year with the Clemson Tigers (252) minus the point(s) versus the Iowa State Cyclones (251). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the West Virginia Mountaineers (245) plus the points versus the Minnesota Golden Gophers (246) in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. THE SITUATION: West Virginia (5-6) is on a two-game winning streak after their 34-28 win at Kansas as a 15.5-point favorite on November 27th. Minnesota (8-4) is also on a two-game winning streak after their 23-13 upset win against Wisconsin as a 7-point underdog on November 27th. This game takes place on a neutral field at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS PLUS THE POINTS: West Virginia started slow this season with four losses in their first five games but they eked by to become bowl eligible by winning four of their last six games including upset wins against TCU and Iowa State along with a late November victory against Texas. After not scoring more than 27 points in their first five games, the West Virginia offense behind senior quarterback Jarret Doege scored at least 29 points in four of their last six contests. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. Doege is a former transfer from Bowling Green who has been a two-year starter in this program. He completed 65.4% of his passes this season. He will not have the services of top running back Leodie Brown who is opting out of this game to prepare for the NFL — but head coach Neal Brown has options in sophomore Tony Mathis, Jr. and freshman A’Varius Sparrow. Brown developed a strong program at Troy which he used as a stepping stone to get this Power Five conference job. He will have relished the additional practice time to prepare for a crucial fourth year in his tenure in Morgantown. Minnesota may be due for a letdown after upsetting the Badgers to spoil their opportunity to play in the Big Ten Conference Championship Game. The Golden Gophers have six of their last eight games to close out the regular season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Minnesota only managed 282 yards in their upset win against Wisconsin. The Gophers can struggle to generate points as they have not topped 23 points in five of their last eight games.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field when favored. 10* CFB Guaranteed Rate Field ESPN Special with the West Virginia Mountaineers (245) plus the points versus the Minnesota Golden Gophers (246). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Auburn Tigers (238) minus the point(s) versus the Houston Cougars (237) in the Birmingham Bowl. THE SITUATION: Auburn (6-6) is on a four-game losing streak after their 24-22 loss in overtime to Alabama as a 20.5-point underdog on November 27th. Houston (11-2) comes off a 35-20 loss to Cincinnati in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game as a 10.5-point underdog on December 4th. This game will be played at the new Protective Stadium in Birmingham, Alabama.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINT(S): The Tigers demonstrated their vast potential in almost upsetting the Crimson Tide in the Iron Bowl a month ago. They sacked Alabama quarterback Bryce Young seven times while holding the Tide to just 71 rushing yards on 37 carries. This should be a motivated Auburn team with first-year head coach Bryan Harsin using this game as a lift-off point for next season. Harsin fired offensive coordinator Mike Bobo after the Alabama game — he will call the plays this afternoon and he has already brought in Bobo’s replacement in former NFL quarterback Austin Davis who served as the quarterbacks' coach for the Seattle Seahawks this season. Harsin does not want to go into his first offseason with a losing record. And this game is an opportunity to further develop former LSU transfer, T.J. Finley, at quarterback with the enigmatic Bo Nix in the transfer portal. The Tigers are down three starting offensive tackles for this game — and their star cornerback Roger McCreary has opted out of this game to prepare for the NFL draft. But this is an SEC power that is loaded for talent — and this is the first game for the 2022-23 season in Harsin’s mind. Harsin and his coaching staff did convince sophomore running back Tank Bigsby to not enter the transfer portal — he will be anchoring the offense in this game. The Tigers’ defense is battle-tested from the rigors of SEC play and a non-conference game against Penn State. They only allowed 22.2 Points-Per-Game and just 309.3 total Yards-Per-Game — and they rank 15th in the nation in Tackles-For-Loss. Their point spread cover against Alabama was the first time they covered the point spread in four games — but they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Auburn has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. Houston lost their opening game at Texas Tech by a 38-21 score before rattling off 11 straight wins before their loss to the Bearcats. This is just the second game the Cougars will be playing all season against a Power Five conference opponent — and it may be telling that their two losses were by double-digits. They had three net close wins decided by one scoring possession against their Group of Five opponents. And they will be playing this game without their star cornerback Marcus Jones who also generated tons of hidden yards when returning kicks on special teams. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a bye week. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral field.

FINAL TAKE: The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog — and the Tigers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored. Auburn has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in December. Houston head coach Dana Holgorsen’s teams in his career have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 bowl games. 10* CFB Birmingham Bowl ESPN Special with the Auburn Tigers (238) minus the point(s) versus the Houston Cougars (237). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ball State Cardinals (231) plus the points versus the Georgia State Panthers (232) in the Camellia Bowl. THE SITUATION: Ball State (6-6) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 20-3 victory against Buffalo as a 6-point favorite on November 23rd in their last regular-season game. Georgia State (7-5) won their last three games to end their regular season after a 37-10 victory against Troy as a 6.5-point favorite on November 27th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Ball State won the Mid-American Conference championship last season before beating San Jose State by a 34-13 score in Arizona Bowl to secure the first bowl victory in the program’s history. The Cardinals did not meet expectations this season — but 16 fifth and six-year seniors have the opportunity to end their legacies on a high note in this game. In hindsight, perhaps regression should have been expected for head coach Mike Neu’s team after four net close victories and three net upset wins last year. They only outgained their seven conference opponents by +21.3 net Yards-Per-Game despite winning six of those games. This group has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a win against a conference opponent. Ball State has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread win -- and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after a point spread victory. They are led by a senior quarterback in Drew Plitt who threw 17 touchdown passes and only threw five interceptions. The Cardinals are a dangerous underdog because they limit their mistakes. They rank in the top-20 in the nation by averaging only 41.6 penalty Yards-Per-Game and by only committing 10 turnovers all season. They also are efficient in the Red Zone by registering points in 33 of their 38 trips inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. Ball State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field as an underdog. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games in December. Georgia State started the season 1-4 before winning six of their last seven — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning four of their last five games. The Panthers' improvement coincided with head coach Shawn Elliott’s decision to bench incumbent starter Cornelius Brown for Furman transfer Darren Grainger. While the team raised their scoring average to 32.5 Points-Per-Game with the junior as a starter, the Georgia State offense revolves around their rushing attack. In his last five games, Grainger has only accounted for six touchdowns — and he completed only 55.8% of his 113 passes over that span while averaging just 145.8 passing Yards-Per-Game and 6.45 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Panthers were outscored and outgained this season — and they were outgained by -7.64 net YPG in their six games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia State’s offense averaged 4.98 Yards-Per-Carry and 2245 rushing YPG behind the two-headed monster of Tucker Gregg and Jamyest Williams — but Ball State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams who average at least 200 rushing YPG and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against opponents who average at least 4.15 YPC. 10* CBB Camellia Bowl ESPN Special with the Ball State Cardinals (231) plus the points versus the Georgia State Panthers (232). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) RedHawks (291) minus the point(s) versus the North Texas Mean Green (292) in the Frisco Football Classic. THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) (5-6) lost their chance to play in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game with a 48-47 upset loss in overtime at Kent State as a 1-point favorite on November 27th. North Texas (6-6) won their fifth straight game with a 45-23 upset win against UTSA as a 9.5-point underdog on November 27th. This game will be played on a neutral field at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS MINUS THE POINT(S): Miami should respond with a strong effort for head coach Chuck Martin. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road after a loss by seven points or less to a conference rival. This has been an explosive team on offense since sophomore quarterback Brett Gabbert returned from injury on October 23rd. They have scored more than 37 Points-Per-Game in their last six games while averaging 6.8 Yards-Per-Play in their last five contests. Gabbert has thrown 24 touchdown passes to just six interceptions won the season — and he has averaged 9.4 Yards-Per-Attempt in his last five starts since returning from injury. He completed 26 of 51 passes for 405 yards with four touchdown passes in the loss to the Golden Flashes. He should have success against the suspect Mean Green secondary that allows 7.9 YPA and ranks 123rd in the nation in Explosiveness Allowed in the passing game. The issue for Miami (OH) is to play better on the defensive side of the football. They allowed a power Kent State offense to gain 303 yards on the ground and 339 yards in the air — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last contest. North Texas may have upset the Roadrunners in their last game — but they were facing a UTSA team that had already clinched their spot in the Conference USA Championship Game and who rested their key starters in the second half of the game. The Mean Green have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after a win at home by 17 or more points. North Texas has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Mean Green allowed 205 rushing yards in their victory — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last contest. North Texas had failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games in December. The Mean Green have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 bowl games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 bowl games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Miami (OH) has covered the point spread in 30 of their last 44 road games when playing on grass. 10* CFB Frisco Bowl Classic ESPN Special with the Miami (OH) RedHawks (291) minus the point(s) versus the North Texas Mean Green (292). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the San Diego State Aztecs (223) minus the points versus the UTSA Roadrunners (224) in the Frisco Bowl. THE SITUATION: San Diego State (11-2) looks to rebound from a 46-13 upset loss to Utah State as a 6.5-point favorite in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game on December 4th. UTSA (12-1) won the Conference USA Championship Game with their 49-41 upset win against Western Kentucky as a 3.5-point underdog on December 3rd. This game is being played on a neutral field at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS MINUS THE POINTS: San Diego State was without 20 players on the COVID list including quarterback Lucas Johnson in their loss to the Aggies. The roster appears to be mostly healthy again for this opportunity to end the season on a positive note after that disappointment in their conference championship game. Winning this game would also give this team 12 wins to break a school record for victories. As it is, the Aztecs have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games after a double-digit loss. San Diego State is also 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 4-1-1 AS in their last 6 games after a point spread loss. The Aztecs have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Head coach Brady Hoke has a stout defensive unit that holds their opponents to just 19.5 Points-Per-Game and 319.5 total Yards-Per-Game — they should play much better tonight back at full strength. San Diego State also has a secret weapon to complement their defensive approach with punter Matt Araiza who averages 51.4 yards per punt this season — and he has 36 punts that landed inside their 20-yard line. UTSA may be due for a letdown after winning their conference championship. The Roadrunners have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset win against a Conference USA opponent. UTSA generated 556 total yards against the Hilltoppers in that triumph — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 525 total yards in their last game. The Roadrunners have played three straight Overs — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after playing at least three straight Overs.

FINAL TAKE: UTSA running back Sincere McCormick has opted-out of this game to enter the NFL draft — the Roadrunners will miss his 3900 career rushing yards after he generated 1479 rushing yards this season with 15 touchdowns on 299 carries. They score 37.8 Points-Per-Game this year — but they play an angry Aztecs team that has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 road games against teams who score at least 34 PPG. 20* CFB Frisco Bowl ESPN Special with the San Diego State Aztecs (223) minus the points versus the UTSA Roadrunners (224). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Marshall Thundering Herd (217) plus the points versus the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (218) in the New Orleans Bowl. THE SITUATION: Marshall (7-5) has lost two of their last three games after a 53-21 loss to Western Kentucky as a 1-point underdog on November 27th. UL-Lafayette (12-1) won the Sun Belt Championship Game with their 24-16 upset win against Appalachian State as a 2.5-point underdog on December 4th. This game will be played at the Caesar’s Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDERING HERD PLUS THE POINTS: Marshall should play well after their embarrassing loss to the Hilltoppers. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a loss by 21 or more points against a Conference USA rival — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a loss by 28 or more points. The Thundering Herd have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Allowing Western Kentucky to score on a 43-yard kickoff return for a touchdown and a 45-yard interception return for a touchdown did not help the Marshall cause under rookie head coach Charlies Huff. Despite their 7-5 record, this team is outscoring their opponents by +11.2 net Points-Per-Game and outgaining them by +82.8 net Yards-Per-Game. In their six games away from home, the Thundering Herd outscored their opponents by +16.5 PPG and +62.0 net YPG. Led by second-year freshman quarterback Grant Wells, the Thundering Herd ranks 27th in the nation in Success Rate on offense. UL-Lafayette finally beat their White Whale in Appalachian State in a conference championship game after falling twice against them prior under head coach Billy Napier. Their head coach has since moved on to Gainesville to begin his journey as the head coach for the University of Florida — and he took a handful of assistants with him including defensive coordinator Patrick Toney. Co-offensive coordinator Michael Desormeaux takes over as the interim head coach. I suspect an emotional letdown is coming for a team that appeared disinterested at times after losing their opener to Texas. The following week, they only beat Nicholls State by three points. They later defeated South Alabama, Arkansas State, Georgia State, and UL-Monroe by five points or less despite being a double-digit favorite on each occasion. As it is, the Ragin’ Cajuns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Louisiana has not committed a turnover in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not committing a turnover in at least three straight games. Running back Chris Smith is another key piece to the team that won the conference title who will not be in the Big Easy as he has opted-out of this game. This is a team that has not covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against Conference USA opponents. The Ragin’ Cajuns have not covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: UL-Louisiana has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight bowl games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field. Marshall has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral field — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on a neutral field as an underdog getting up to seven points. The Thundering Herd have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 bowl games. 25* CFB Saturday ESPN Game of the Month with the Marshall Thundering Herd (217) plus the points versus the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (218). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UAB Blazers (211) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (212) in the Independence Bowl. THE SITUATION: UAB (8-4) won their third game in their last four with their 42-25 win against UTEP as a 14-point favorite on November 26th. BYU (10-2) won their fifth straight game with a 35-31 victory at USC as an 8-point favorite on November 27th. This game is being played at Independence Stadium in Shreveport, Louisiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLAZERS PLUS THE POINTS: UAB should build off the momentum of the close of their good regular-season finish. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a victory against a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning four or five of their last six games. The Blazers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games under head coach Bill Clark when getting at least two weeks to prepare for the game. This could very well be Clark’s best team at UAB in his six years with the program. He returned 17 starters from last season’s team that finished 6-3 but did not get to play in the Gasparilla Bowl when it got canceled because of COVID. The UAB offense scores 29.4 PPG while averaging a healthy 5.9 Yards-Per-Play. They rank fifth in the nation in Expected Points per rushing attempt — and they have the 11th highest rush rate on offense in the country. The Blazers should be able to run the ball against this Cougars’ defense that allows their opponents to average 4.4 Yards-Per-Carr and who rank 93rd in the FBS in Rush Success Rate allowed. The UAB defense is stout — they are 19th in the nation by allowing only 4.8 YPP. They hold opposing rushers to just 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry — and they rank third in the nation in Rushing Explosiveness allowed. The Blazers have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. BYU has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after a win on the road where they did not cover the point spread. This is the Cougars’ third straight game on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 43 games playing their last two games on the road. BYU has also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after winning their last two games on the road. They did allow the Trojans to gain 458 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. And while they have scored at least 34 points in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 31 points in three straight games. BYU was expected to take a step back this season after losing five players to the NFL draft from the team that finished 11-1 last year against a schedule that did not include a Power 5 opponent. A +0.83 net turnover margin that was 10th best in the nation helped. But the Cougars were also fortunate to win all four of their games that were decided by one scoring possession. They scored 33.5 Points-Per-Game but saw that scoring average fall by -4.8 PPG and their yardage plummet by -24.7 net Yards-Per-Game when playing away from home. That is not a good sign for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 bowl games.

FINAL TAKE: BYU has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when favored — and UAB has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog. 20* CFB UAB-BYU ABC-TV Special with the UAB Blazers (211) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (212). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (202) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (201) in the Bahamas Bowl. THE SITUATION: Middle Tennessee (6-6) became bowl eligible to conclude their regular season with a 27-17 win at FAU as a 3.5-point underdog on November 27th. Toledo (7-5) is on a three-game winning streak after a 49-14 win against Akron as a 28.5-point favorite on November 27th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Thomas Robinson Stadium in Nassau, Bahamas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: Middle Tennessee lost four of their first six games before salvaging their season by winning four of their last six games. Head coach Rick Stockstill hit the transfer portal in the offseason to inject more talent into what has been a sleepy program as of late. But his teams typically end strong — the Blue Raiders have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games in the second half of the season. They outscored their last three opponents by +14.3 net Points-Per-Game and they outgained these foes by +94.0 net Yards-Per-Game. Stabilizing play at quarterback has been a season-long journey. Former NC State QB Bailey Hockman left the team in September after having a baby. Redshirt junior QB Chase Cunningham suffered a season-ending leg injury in early November. Freshman QB Nicholas Vattiato started the final four games — and after a rough debut at Western Kentucky, he has since completed 63 of 89 passes for 553 yards with three touchdown passes and only one interception in his last three games. He was benched for sophomore Mike Diliello in the game against the Owls — and it was Diliello who led the comeback win by completing 12 of 19 passes for 131 yards with a touchdown pass. Diliello adds mobility to the offense — he ran 12 times for 43 yards with a touchdown. Both QBs hold play this afternoon — and a quarterback competition in a bowl game building into the following season is not a bad thing in these situations. Middle Tennessee is a good defensive team — they rank 24th in the nation by allowing only 5.1 Yards-Per-Play. The Blue Raiders also rank sixth in the nation by averaging +0.92 net turnovers per game. And while fumble luck played a role, the Middle Tennessee defense was fifth in the nation by picking off 16 passes. The Blue Raiders did not force a turnover in their win at FAU — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after not forcing more than one turnover in their last game. Toledo failed to meet their high expectations this season after returning 21 starters. They were 0-4 in one-possession games. So while this could have been a 10-win team, how motivated will this group be in Bahamas now? As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win against a Mid-American Conference opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a point spread win. And while the Rockets outgained the Zips by +217 net yards by generating 582 total yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +225 net yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after gaining at least 475 yards. Toledo has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. The Rockets have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after winning at least three games in a row. Toledo is a program that is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 bowl games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games played on a neutral field.

FINAL TAKE: Middle Tennessee is playing in their first bowl game since 2018 — and they have not won a bowl game since 2017. They are a team looking to build momentum into next season while this is a coda for many of these Rocket players. High winds up to 15 miles per hour will likely contribute to chaos — and chaos tends to help big underdogs. 10* CFB Toledo-Middle Tennessee ESPN Special with the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (202) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (201). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (321) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (322) in the Big Ten Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Iowa (10-2) has won four straight games after their 28-21 upset win at Nebraska as a 2-point underdog on Friday. Michigan (11-1) upset Ohio State by a 42-27 score as a 6.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES PLUS THE POINTS: The Wolverines slayed their proverbial white whale in the Buckeyes last week. I expect an emotional letdown — and then the pressure will kick in that losing this game will spoil their college playoff aspirations. As it is, Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after an upset victory. The Wolverines have also failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 34 games on the road after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. And while their win against Ohio State came after a 59-18 win at Maryland, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after playing at least two straight games where at least 60 combined points were scored. Michigan did allow 394 passing yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 375 passing yards in their last contest. The Wolverines allow 17.2 Points-Per-Game and 319.4 total Yards-Per-Game — but those numbers rise to 23.6 PPG and 345.4 total YPG when playing away from the Big House. Nebraska scored 29 points against them and Michigan State put up 37 points against them with those games not in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Iowa has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road after a win on the road in their last game. Scoring is the biggest concern for this team — but head coach Kirk Ferentz is turning to Spencer Petras as his starter who has a better deep ball. The Hawkeyes have been better on offense in their last four games where they are averaging 5.0 Yards-Per-Play and 4.0 Yards-Per-Carry — as opposed to the 4.0 YPP and 2.8 rushing YPC averages in their first eight games. Iowa is elite with their other two phases of the game with their defense and special teams. They hold their opponents to 17.3 PPG — and they are ninth in the nation in points allowed per drive. They generate points from their defense and special teams units — they have six non-offensive touchdowns this season and that is not a fluke under Ferentz. The Hawkeyes are third in the nation with a +13 net turnover margin. The analytics community is too quick to consider this “luck” — but forcing turnovers is a skill that is taught. Where the bouncing (or tipped) ball goes can be a function of luck — but forcing the fumble or tipped pass is a skill. Iowa has won the turnover battle in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 road games after posting a +1 or better net turnover margin in two straight games. ESPN’s SP+ metrics rate Iowa’s special teams as the fifth-best unit in the nation. This formula for success is why Iowa is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Iowa has not been a double-digit underdog since 2017. Michigan only beat teams with a similar profile — Nebraska and Penn State — by 3 and 4 points. Mistakes and turnovers were the reason why they lost to Michigan State. The Wolverines have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral field — and they are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games when favored on a neutral field. Michigan just wants to escape with a win — covering doesn’t matter. Expect plenty of nervy moments for the Wolverines tonight. 20* CFB Iowa-Michigan Fox-TV Special with the Iowa Hawkeyes (321) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Houston Cougars (313) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (314) in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Houston (11-1) has won eleven straight games after their 45-17 win at UConn as a 32-point favorite on Saturday. Cincinnati (12-0) remained unbeaten with their 35-13 win at East Carolina as a 14.5-point favorite on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS PLUS THE POINTS: I expect this to be a nervy game for the Bearcats with their spot in the college football playoff likely secured with a victory. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win on the road against a conference rival. The Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after winning at least seen in a row. After a stretch of games that included one-score wins against Navy and Tulsa, Cincinnati has outgained their last three opponents by at least +150 yards. But the Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after outgaining their last three opponents by at least 150 net yards. Cincinnati has shown some cracks in their armor when playing teams who can get to the quarterback. Desmond Ridder has been sacked 18 times this season — and he was sacked eight times in their bowl game loss against Georgia last year. The Bearcats score 46 PPG when Ridder faces a pressure rate no higher than 15% — but that scoring average drops by 11 PPG in the games when he faced a pressure rate higher than 15%. Here comes Houston that has a pressure rate of 40% on the quarterback. The Cougars are sixth in the nation by sacking the quarterback in 10% of their dropbacks. Houston is second in the nation in Havoc Rate and fifth in Pressure Rate. They have seven players with at least 3.5 sacks — so this is a balanced unit that does not rely heavily on the blitz to apply pressure. Overall, “Sack Avenue” is fourth in the nation with 41 team sacks. Houston is seventh in the nation by holding their opponents to 4.6 Yards-Per-Play. They are tough against the run and the pass — they rank 12th in the nation in opponent Rush Success Rate and second in the FBS in opponent Pass Success Rate. The Cougars' offense is dynamic as well as they have scored at least 40 points seven times. Quarterback Clayton Tune is completing 69% of his passes and averaging 8.5 Yards-Per-Attempt. In his last seven starts, Tune has 19 touchdown passes to just two interceptions. In their eleven-game winning streak, Houston has outscored their opponents by +22.1 PPG. They gained 472 yards last week against the Huskies — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win on the road. They have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a win where they did not cover the point spread. Houston is also 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 road games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Houston head coach Dana Holgorsen assembled a bunch of talent taking full advantage of the transfer portal started by his de-facto tank job in 2019 when he redshirted a number of his players before using up their eligibility. The fruits of those efforts are now being realized. Cincinnati is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games in December. 20* CFB Houston-Cincinnati ABC-TV Special with Houston Cougars (313) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (312) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (311) in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: UL-Lafayette (11-1) has won 11 straight games after their 21-16 win against UL-Monroe as a 21.5-point favorite on Saturday. Appalachian State (10-2) has won six straight games after their 27-3 win against Georgia Southern as a 24.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAGIN’ CAJUNS PLUS THE POINTS: This will be head coach Billy Napier’s last game with Louisiana before he takes on his new job as head coach of the Florida Gators. Napier has been pulling double-duty this week getting his new staff together in Gainesville while beginning his recruiting for Florida — and that may scare off some bettors. His coordinators are still on the case for this game — and Napier is quite familiar with Appalachian State. I see things in the opposite way — this contest offers Napier and his players the culmination of a long journey where beating the Mountaineers in the championship game and winning a Sun Belt championship is the final goal for this program. The Ragin’ Cajuns have lost twice to Appalachian State in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game under Napier before not getting the chance to play for the title last season against Coastal Carolina due to a COVID outbreak canceling the game. UL-Louisiana has appeared to lack motivation at times this season. They have five wins against inferior opponents by just one scoring possession — however, they also crushed Appalachian State and Liberty in statement victories by 28 points apiece. Being listed as the underdog should stick anger them — and they have pulled the upset in five of their last seven games in the role of the underdog under Napier. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They get to host this game where they are 6-0 with an average winning margin of +20.0 Points-Per-Game and a ++143.8 net Yards-Per-Game mark. The Ragin’ Cajuns hold their guest to just 14.0 PPG and 301.5 net YPG. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Mountaineers have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 10 points in their last game against a conference opponent. They held the Eagles to just 194 yards last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last contest. And in their last 12 games after winning at least five straight games, Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of these games. The Mountaineers play on the road for this contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: UL-Lafayette finally defeated Appalachian State last December in a regular-season game to avenge those two previous losses in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game in 2018 and 2019. The Ragin’ Cajuns followed that up with a 41-13 throttling of the Mountaineers at home on October 12th this season in a game where they outgained them by +244 yards despite being a +4.5-point underdog. Appalachian State has revenge on their minds — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when avenging an upset loss. The dog has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in this series. The Louisiana players love Napier — I think they play hard for him today in a program-defining moment. 25* CFB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year with the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (312) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (305) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (306) in the Pac-12 Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Oregon (10-2) comes off a 38-29 win against Oregon State as a 7.5-point favorite last week. Utah (9-3) has won five straight games after their 28-13 victory against Colorado as a 24-point favorite last Friday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS PLUS THE POINTS: Oregon gets the opportunity to redeem themselves from a 38-7 loss to the Utes in Salt Lake City back on November 20th. That was probably the Ducks’ worst game of the season. The wheels fell off in the second quarter where Utah scored two touchdowns to take a 21-0 lead before returning a punt for 78 yards at the end of the half to go into the locker room down 28-0. We had the Utes that game — I liked the situation for them then. I like the Ducks now in what I see as a coin flip game on a neutral field. Oregon rebounded last week in their rivalry game with Oregon State. The Ducks generated 506 yards in the contest — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. Oregon has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win at home against a conference rival. They held a 24-3 halftime lead in the game — and they have covered the point spread in 46 of their last 60 games after not allowing more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. And while the Ducks had been on a five-game winning streak before their loss to the Utes, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning four of their last five games. Furthermore, Oregon has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on a neutral field as an underdog getting up to seven points. Utah has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral field as a favorite. The Utes have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. And while they held the Buffaloes to just 148 yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Utah plays their best defense in the high altitude in Salt Lake City where they hold their opponents to just 15.8 PPG. But in their six games on the road, they are just 3-3 while allowing their opponents to score 27.2 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Utes have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when favored. Oregon has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. The Ducks have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in December. 10* CFB Oregon-Utah ABC-TV Special with the Oregon Ducks (305) plus the points versus the Utah Utes (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UTSA Road Runners (304) plus the points versus the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (303) in Conference USA Championship Game. THE SITUATION: UTSA (11-1) comes off their first loss of the season last week in a 45-23 upset loss at North Texas as a 9.5-point favorite. Western Kentucky (8-4) has won seven straight games after their 53-21 win at Marshall as a 1-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROADRUNNERS PLUS THE POINTS: UTSA had little at stake last week after clinching the opportunity to host this conference championship game the previous week with a 34-31 victory against UAB. While a perfect record would be nice for head coach Jeff Traylor, the most important goals are winning the first conference championship in program history and then winning the first bowl game in conference history. After committing some early turnovers in bad weather in Denton last week, Traylor pulled his starters with the writing on the wall for that game (against a Mean Green team motivated to become bowl eligible) to rest for this showdown. UTSA should respond with a strong effort. The Roadrunners have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss by at least 20 points. UTSA has also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a loss to a conference rival. Now the Roadrunners return home where they are 6-0 this season with an average winning margin of +22.2 net Points-Per-Game. They outgain their visitors by +162.0 net Yards-Per-Game because of their defense that holds these guests to just 13.0 PPG and 239.5 total YPG. UTSA has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Roadrunners bring a balanced offense into this game led by quarterback Frank Harris and running back Sincere Mitchell. Harris is a dual-threat who is completing 66.3% of his passes — and he has 23 touchdown passes to just five interceptions. McCormick has rushed for more than 1000 yards in two straight seasons. UTSA has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games as an underdog. Western Kentucky has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win on the road in conference play. With their new Air Raid offense this season led by quarterback Bailey Zappe, the Hilltoppers are second in the nation by scoring 43.2 PPG. But UTSA has seen this offense already in their 52-46 victory at Western Kentucky as a 3.5-point underdog on October 9th. The Hilltoppers’ defense is a concern as they are tied for 87th in the nation by allowing 407.6 total Yards-Per-Game. Their ability to stop the pass is the biggest concern as they rank 113th in the nation by allowing 261.9 passing YPG. Harris completed 28 of 38 passes for 349 yards with six touchdown passes in the first meeting. Western Kentucky is surviving high-scoring games with their last four contests seeing at least 63 combined points — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after playing at least four straight games where at least 60 combined points were scored.

FINAL TAKE: Western Kentucky is the trendy pick in this game because of the revenge angle and that they have lost all three of their games decided by one scoring possession — and UTSA has won all five of their games decided by one scoring possession. But don’t underestimate the confidence of an older team in their ability to win close games — especially when they are playing at home (and at night). The Roadrunners have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CFB Conference USA Game of the Year with the UTSA Road Runners (304) plus the points versus the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (201) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (202). THE SITUATION: California (4-6) has won three of their last four games with their 41-11 victory at Stanford last week as a 2.5-point favorite. UCLA (7-4) has won two in a row with their 62-33 win at USC as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Cal is playing their best football of the season — and they should build off their momentum tonight. The Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 20 or more points. Cal got their senior quarterback Chase Garbers back last week after he was injured for their previous game against Arizona when the team was hit hard by COVID in a 10-3 upset loss. The Bears had over 20 players out for that game with the Wildcats. Now with four wins and with their postponed game with USC on deck next week, bowl eligibility remains a real possibility. Garbers completed 17 of 26 passes for 246 yards with two touchdown passes — and he added another 59 rushing yards on the ground. Garbers has posted a QBR of 82 or better in each of his last three starts with seven touchdown passes and one interception. Cal gained 636 yards in the win against the Cardinal — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Golden Bears gained 325 of those yards on the ground — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Cal’s defense has played better as of late as well — they have held their last three opponents to just 15.3 PPG and 330.0 total Yards-Per-Game. Cal has been a very tough underdog over the years as they are 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 13 road games as a dog. The Golden Bears have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. UCLA comes off the rivalry game win against USC —  but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a win by 20 or more points. The Bruins have won and covered the point spread as a favorite in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after covering their last two games as the favorite. Dorian Thompson-Robinson completed 16 of 22 passes for 349 yards in the win last week — but they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. But the play of the defense has regressed as of late. In their last three games, UCLA has allowed 32.3 PPG and 437.3 total YPG. The Bruins rank just 112th in the nation in Opponent’s Rush Success Rate. UCLA hosts this game at home in the Rose Bowl — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 home games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Five of Cal’s six losses have been by one scoring possession. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. UCLA’s motivation for this game is questionable after their rivalry game and a bowl game clinched but with no chance of playing in the Pac-12 Championship Game next week. 25* CFB Pac-12 Game of the Year with the California Golden Bears (201) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (202). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Virginia Cavaliers (176) minus the points versus the Virginia Tech Hokies (175). THE SITUATION: Virginia (6-5) has lost three straight games after their 48-38 loss at Pittsburgh as a 13-point underdog last week. Virginia Tech (5-6) has lost two of their last three games with their 38-26 loss at Miami (FL) as a 7-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS MINUS THE POINTS: Virginia did get back quarterback Brennan Armstrong after he missed time with an injury. The southpaw completed 36 of 49 passes for 487 yards with three touchdown passes in the loss. The Cavaliers were only outgained by -4 yards to the Panthers by generating 504 total yards — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Virginia has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread win. And they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Armstrong threw an interception which accounted for the lone Cavaliers turnover — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game. They return home where they are 4-2 this season with an average winning margin of +13.7 PPG — and they outgain their guests by +123.0 Yards-Per-Game. Virginia has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Virginia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. And while the Hokies committed only one turnover against the Hurricanes, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game. This team is playing under interim head coach J.C. Price who took over after Justin Fuente was fired two weeks ago. Virginia Tech stays on the road where they are just 1-3 with an average losing margin of -5.8 PPG. They only score 19.0 PPG while averaging 317.5 total YPG on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Virginia will be looking to avenge a 33-15 loss to the Hokies last season — so they will be very motivated to end their struggles against this team. Virginia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. 10* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster with the Virginia Cavaliers (176) minus the points versus the Virginia Tech Hokies (175). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida Gators (226) minus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (225). THE SITUATION: Florida (5-6) has lost four of their last five games after their 24-23 upset loss at Missouri in overtime last Saturday. Florida State (5-6) has registered two straight upset victories after their 26-23 upset win at Boston College as a 3-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GATORS MINUS THE POINTS: The streaking Seminoles upset Miami (FL) two weeks ago by a 31-28 score. But Florida State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after winning two games in a row by six points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after an upset win against an ACC opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after an upset win as a road underdog. They stay on the road where they are getting outscored by -4.5 PPG and getting outgained by -76.3 net YPG. The Seminoles defense gives up too many big plays — they rank 120th in Explosiveness Allowed. They give up 402.8 total YPG and 28.3 PPG in their four games on the road. They are just 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 road games — and they are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 road games as an underdog. Florida plays their first game since Dan Mullen was fired as their head coach in just his second season with the team. It sure looks like many of the players stopped playing for him two weeks ago when they were getting trounced at home against Samford. The Gators rebounded in the second half to win that game by 18 points — but giving up 52 points to an FCS team is troubling. They had not allowed more than 31 points at home all season before that game — and that was in a 2-point loss to mighty Alabama. This remains one of the most talented teams in the nation who played the Crimson Tide tough earlier this year and in last year’s SEC Championship Game. A tough loss at LSU and then getting crushed against Georgia seems to have broken the team — and the players stopped responding to Mullen. Expect a spirited effort with Mullen now gone for interim head coach Greg Knox — it is the player’s way of communicating that he was the problem. Florida has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by seven points or less to a conference opponent. The Gators have only played one of their last six games at home — so getting back to the Swamp will help. They are 4-1 at home with an average winning margin of +20.6 net PPG and +155 net YPG marks. They score 42.8 PPG at home while generating 539.8 total YPG. With Emory Jones nursing an ankle injury, the talented Anthony Richardson gets the start at quarterback (which is fine). Florida has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Florida will be motivated to play on Senior Day with the opportunity to stick it to Mullen — and these players do not want the shame of not even becoming bowl eligible. Florida State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in November — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games in games outside the ACC. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Florida Gators (226) minus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (225). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Boston College Eagles (162) plus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (161). THE SITUATION: Boston College (6-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped with their 26-23 upset loss to Florida State as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Wake Forest (9-2) has lost two of their last three games with their 48-27 loss at Clemson as a 3.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Boston College fell behind in the first half and went into the locker room with a 19-3 deficit before rallying to pull within three points with 10 minutes left to go in the game. But the Eagles could not score again to get upset by the Seminoles. That was the first loss for this team with a healthy Phil Jurkovec under center. Boston College is significantly better when he is leading the offense. Jurkovec averages 10.5 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game while generating 6.6 Yards-Per-Carry when rushing out of the backfield. The Eagles should bounce back this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after suffering an upset loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after by three points or less. Boston College gets to host this game in the cold weather where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games. Furthermore, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when getting up to 7 points as a home dog. The Boston College defense will play a big role in this showdown in slowing down the Demon Deacons’ quarterback Sam Hartman. The Eagles rank 26th in opponent’s Pass Success Rate — and they limit their opponents to just 6.8 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game, ranking 33rd in the nation. Boston College holds their guests to just 19.2 PPG and 312.2 total YPG at home. Wake Forest has the pressure of needing to win this game to clinch their spot in the ACC Championship Game against Pittsburgh next week. While Hartman has led a powerful offense, it is the subpar play of the Demon Deacons’ defense that has exposed them against Clemson and North Carolina earlier this month. The Tigers rank just 117th in the nation in Pass Success Rate but were able to torch the Wake Forest defense for 10.5 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game and 543 total yards of offense. Clemson averaged 7.33 Yards-Per-Play last week — and the Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after allowing at least 6.25 YPP in their last game. Hartman tried to keep up as he completed 27 of 43 passes for 312 yards — but Wake Forest has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Hartman has been pressing with the defense being so easy to score on — he has six interceptions in his last three games. The Demon Deacons allow 30.8 PPG and 449.8 total YPG — and it is even worse away from home as they surrender 43.2 PPG and 540.8 total YPG in their five road games. Predictably, Wake Forest is 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, the Demon Deacons are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 road games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Besides the opportunity to play the role of spoiler to Wake Forest’s ACC title chances, Boston College can avenge their 27-24 loss at home to the Demon Deacons on September 28th, 2019 in the last meeting between these two teams. Hartman quarterbacking in the cold Boston weather against an Eagles team that will score points may be too much to ask for the NFL prospect. 25* CFB ACC Underdog of the Year with the Boston College Eagles (162) plus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (161). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the East Carolina Pirates (156) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (155). THE SITUATION: East Carolina (7-4) has won four games in a row with their 38-35 win at Navy as a 3.5-point favorite last Saturday. Cincinnati (11-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 48-14 victory against SMU as a 10-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES PLUS THE POINTS: The Bearcats made a statement with their emphatic 34-point victory against a quality Mustangs team that entered that game with an 8-2 record. Cincinnati now finds themselves in the College Football Playoff top-four rankings this week — and they are locked into the American Athletic Conference Championship Game next week against Houston. Alas, the Bearcats walk into this emotional letdown and a look-ahead spot against the Pirates. Now road favorites still manage to cover all the time in these situations — so the issue becomes how vulnerable is Cincinnati in this spot and how dangerous of an underdog is East Carolina. On Issue One, the Bearcats are vulnerable to letdowns. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two games in a row against conference foes. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning at least seven in a row. And while they have gained at least 506 yards in their last two games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 475 yards in two straight contests. They held the Mustangs pass offense to just 66 yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 125 passing yards in their last game. The Bearcats have experienced scares from some middle-of-the-road conference opponents. They only beat Navy on the road by a touchdown. They defeated Tulsa at home by eight points. While they are scoring 40.0 PPG and averaging 429.7 total YPG, those numbers drop by a touchdown and more than 60 total YPG to 33.0 PPG and 368.4 total YPG marks when playing on the road. They also allow just under 26 more YPG away from home. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games when laying 7.5 to 14 points. On Issue Two, East Carolina does have the pedigree of a dangerous but under-appreciated opponent. After a 3-6 campaign last year, head coach Mike Houston had 20 starters return for what is likely his best roster in his three years with the program. They are playing their best football at this point of the season having outscored their last three opponents by +15.4 PPG and outgaining them by +208.5 net YPG. After opening the season with understandable losses at Appalachian State and home to South Carolina, they have pulled off three upset victories against Memphis, Marshall, and Tulane. They lost on the road to Houston in overtime. They enter this game with momentum — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. They generated 563 yards against the Midshipmen last week while outgaining them by +181 net yards. The Pirates are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after gaining at least 450 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +125 yards. Quarterback Holton Ahlers completed 27 of 32 passes for 405 yards with three touchdown passes in the win last week. He leads an offense scoring 37.7 PPG and generating 505.5 total YPG in their last three games. He can keep East Carolina competitive in this contest with his deep balls — he leads an offense that ranks 18th in the nation in Explosiveness. The Bearcats have played only two teams ranked in the top-25 in Offensive Explosiveness — and they rank 71st in the Pass Defense Explosiveness. The Pirates are 4-1 at home at Dowdy-Ficken Stadium where they outscore their opponents by +16.0 PPG. East Carolina has an underrated defense that holds their visitors to just 18.8 PPG -- and they have held their last three opponents to just 22.3 PPG and 297.0 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: East Carolina had 21 first-time starters last season, the fifth-most in the nation. The fruits of that commitment to go young are coming into place now. The Pirates have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 conference games. Lastly, East Carolina is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as a dog getting 10.5 to 21 points. Yes, this is a dangerous team. 25* CFB American Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the East Carolina Pirates (156) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (155). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (372) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (371). THE SITUATION: Utah (7-3) has won three games in a row with their 38-29 win at Arizona last week as a 24-point favorite. Oregon (9-1) has won five games in a row with their 38-24 victory against Washington State as a 13.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES MINUS THE POINTS: Utah should continue to build off its momentum. They have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win on the road against a Pac-12 rival. The Utes have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home after winning two in a row against Pac-12 foes. Utah is a better team now that they have settled their quarterback situation. Former Baylor quarterback Charlie Brewer was under center early in the season — but the offense has improved after a disgruntled Brewer left the program because he was being outplayed by Cameron Rising. The former Texas recruit completed 19 of 30 passes last week for 294 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. The Utes have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Rising has 14 touchdown passes and just two interceptions — and he has made 13 Big-Time Throws with only three turnover-worthy plays. Utah is 3-3 on the road this year after starting the season 1-2 — but they are an unbeaten 4-0 at home with an average winning margin of +17.0 PPG. They generate 430.8 total YPG at home while allowing just 340.0 total YPG. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games when favored. The Utes defense has held their last three opponents to just 20.0 PPG and 323.0 YPG. Utah has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games in conference play. Oregon has covered the point spread in their last two games after their narrow cover against the Cougars last week. But the Ducks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after covering the point spread in two straight games. And while their win against Washington State finished Over the 58 point Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Ducks defense has some issues despite having a likely top-ten pick in the next NFL draft in defensive lineman Kayvan Thibodeaux. Oregon is 95th in the nation in defensive touchdown rate in the Red Zone. They are also 73rd in Havoc Rate — and Utah is 18th in Havoc Rate Allowed on offense. The Ducks goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Utah is in the driver’s seat to win the Pac-12 South with a one-game lead against Arizona State while controlling the tie-breaker with their victory against the Sun Devils. But Kyle Whittingham does not have his team take their foot off the gas pedal this time of the season. The Utes have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after the first month of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in November. And Whittingham will motivate his team to avenge the 37-15 loss to the Ducks in their last meeting on December 6th in 2019 by a 37-15 score. 10* CFB Oregon-Utah ABC-TV Special with the Utah Utes (372) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (371). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Navy Midshipmen (384) plus the points versus the East Carolina Pirates (383). THE SITUATION: Navy (2-7) has lost four of their last five games after their 34-6 loss at Notre Dame as a 21-point underdog two weeks ago. East Carolina (6-4) has won three in a row after their 30-29 upset win in overtime against Memphis as a 4-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MIDSHIPMEN PLUS THE POINTS: Despite the disappointing record, Navy still has their showdown with Army to think about — so this is an important game to establish some momentum for that final rivalry game in three weeks. The Midshipmen have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by 20 or more points. Navy has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a bye week. The Midshipmen only gained 184 yards against the Irish in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after not gaining at least 275 yards in their last game. Despite their seven losses, Navy has been competitive — they lost by one score to the powers in the American Athletic Conference in Cincinnati, Houston, and SMU. They are 19th in the nation in Red Zone defense by keeping their opponents scoreless in 25% of their trips. It is Senior Day in Annapolis this afternoon — and the Midshipmen have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. East Carolina quarterback Holton Ahlers completed 29 of 46 passes for 317 yards in leading the Pirates to the upset win against the Tigers — but they are just 13-36-2 ATS in their last 51 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The boxscore indicates that East Carolina outgained Memphis by a 502 to 341 yards margin — but they only averaged 4.9 Yards-Per-Play while allowing the Tigers to average 6.4 YPP. The Pirates are not likely to win the time of possession against a Navy team who average 35:34 minutes per game behind their triple-option rushing attack. After the emotional victory last week — and Cincinnati on deck — East Carolina may not have had their full attention during the week in preparing for the Midshipmen’s unique offense. They allow 4.4 rushing Yards-Per-Carry — and they have surrendered 226 rushing yards to Appalachian State, 204 rushing yards to Marshall, and 199 rushing yards to South Florida. The Pirates have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games when favored overall.

FINAL TAKE: East Carolina has not beaten Navy since 2011. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against the Midshipmen after losing at home to them last season by a 27-23 score as a 3-point underdog. Don’t be surprised if Navy wins this game outright — but take the points for some insurance. 10* CFB Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the Navy Midshipmen (384) plus the points versus the East Carolina Pirates (383). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Eastern Michigan Eagles (302) plus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (301). THE SITUATION: Eastern Michigan (6-4) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 34-26 upset loss to Ohio as a 6-point favorite last Tuesday. Western Michigan (6-4) ended their two-game losing streak with a 45-40 win against Akron as a 26-point favorite last Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Eastern Michigan still has plenty to play for this season even if their 3-3 conference record likely has them out of contention to play in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game. Reaching eight wins would be a milestone for this program as would winning the Michigan MAC Title involving the four directional teams from the state in the conference. Reaching a fourth bowl in the last six seasons under head coach Chris Creighton would cement his legacy. The Eagles have bounced back to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after an upset loss. Eastern Michigan has also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss at home to a conference rival. Ben Bryant complete 41 of 57 passes for 354 yards in the losing effort to the Bobcats. The graduate transfer quarterback from Cincinnati is completing 69.7% of his passes and has thrown for at least 300 yards in four straight games. He leads an offense ranked 27th in the nation by scoring 34.0 PPG. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 29 games after passing for at least 280 yards. They return home where they are outscoring their guests by +8.8 PPG. Eastern Michigan rarely gets soundly defeated — they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games against teams with a winning record. They have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when getting 3.5 to 10 points. Western Michigan has been inconsistent under head coach Tim Lester. They are just 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win against a conference rival. The defensive play of the Broncos has been holding them back. They are tied for 91st in the nation by allowing 30.0 PPG — and they surrender 34.8 PPG and 413.3. total YPG in their four games on the road. Western Michigan has allowed at least 31 points in five straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after giving up at least 31 points in their last two contests. The offense has taken a step back this year as well. Quarterback Kaleb Eleby led the team to score 41.7 PPG last season — but the loss of two players to the NFL from that group may be playing a role in their averaging 11.0 fewer PPG this season. On the road, the Broncos are scoring just 24.3 PPG. Western Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after scoring at least 37 points in their last contest. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Western Michigan was a favorite to win the MAC West Title — so their 3-3 record in the MAC has been another disappointment under Lester. It could be worse — the Broncos have won all three of their games decided by one scoring possession. Eastern Michigan has played an incredible 45 of their last 58 games within one scoring possession. They are 2-3 in their five one-score games this year continuing a string of tough luck where they have won only four of their last fourteen games decided by eight points or less. Eastern Michigan has upset Miami (OH) and Toledo this year making it 15 upset wins under Creighton in the last six seasons. Getting 5.5 to 6 or so points offers a nice cushion in a game where the Eagles should be in a position to pull the upset. 25* CFB Tuesday ESPN2 Game of the Year with the Eastern Michigan Eagles (302) plus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (162) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (161). THE SITUATION: UCLA (5-4) has lost two games in a row after their 44-24 loss at Utah as a 6.5-point underdog two weeks ago. Colorado (3-6) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 37-34 upset victory against Oregon State in double-overtime as an 11.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Chip Kelly’s seat is getting warmer in Los Angeles after a two-game slide — although both losses were without quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson. The bye week helped DTR and some other injured players get healthy again for the stretch run of the season that will determine whether or not this has been a successful season. With USC on deck, UCLA will want to establish some momentum. They narrowly lost at home to Oregon by a 34-31 score in their previous game before being flat against the Utes. The Bruins have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing two of their last three games. And while they spotted Utah 28 points in the first half in their last game, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. Additionally, UCLA has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games after allowing at least 31 points in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after losing two in a row to a Pac-12 foe while allowing at least 31 points in both contests . Hosting the Buffaloes may be just what the doctor ordered as they have allowed at least 200 rushing yards five times in this season including in each of their last three games. In their last seven contests, Colorado is giving up 211 rushing YPG with their opponent scoring at least three rushing touchdowns in four of those games. UCLA running backs Zach Charbonnet and Brittain Brown along with Thompson-Robinson combine to average 5.2 Yards-Per-Carry with 20 rushing touchdowns. They host the Buffaloes at the Rose Bowl where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games when laying 14.5 to 21 points. Colorado is getting better play from freshman quarterback Brendon Lewis who has led them to score 33 PPG in their last two games after they averaged just 12 PPG in their first six games against FBS opponents. But the Buffaloes winless on the road in four games with an average losing margin of -17.8 PPG. They only score 13.0 PPG and average 238.8 total YPG on the road — and they allow their home hosts to average 433.3 total YPG. This will be Colorado’s third game in their last four on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog. The Buffaloes surrendered 475 yards to the Beavers in their upset win — and they have failed to cover the pint spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. And while they have not committed a turnover in two straight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after not committing a turnover.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado has lost by at least 22 points in all four of their setbacks in the Pac-12 this season. UCLA has covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a losing record. 10* CFB Blowout Bookie Buster with the UCLA Bruins (162) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (161). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (206) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (205). THE SITUATION: Arkansas (6-3) has won two straight games after their 31-28 win against Mississippi State as a 4-point favorite last Saturday. LSU (4-5) looks to rebound from their 20-14 loss at Alabama as a 29.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Razorbacks have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. And while Arkansas has not covered the point spread in their last three games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not covering the point spread in their last two games. Now after playing their last three games at home, the Razorbacks go back on the road where they are just 1-2 this season in their three games away from home. They score only 23.7 PPG in these three away games — and their defense allows 33.0 PPG and 409.3 total YPG. Playing away from Fayetteville has been a problem for this program — they have won just once in their last fifteen road games since 2018. This team has won only one road game in their seven played under head coach Sam Pittman. Arkansas has lost both of their two true road games when playing in a hostile environment rather than a neutral field. Now they are favored despite having failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games when favored. LSU may have lost last week — but they feel good about themselves for holding the potent Crimson Tide offense to just 308 total yards. The Tigers stuffed Alabama in 14 of their 22 rushing attempts while holding them to only 3.4 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. LSU dialed up their pressure by generating four sacks and eight tackles for loss against the Tide — and Razorbacks’ QB K.J. Jefferson struggles against the blitz. While the Tigers are playing for a lame-duck head coach in Ed Orgeron who will not be retained at the end of the season, I expect the players to rally around him and each other in this night game in Death Valley. This group does not want the embarrassment of not becoming bowl eligible. As it is, LSU has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to a conference rival. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing two of their last three games. And while the offense has only scored 31 points in their last two games, they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after failing to score more than 17 points in two straight games. Orgeron is looking for a spark on offense which is why freshman quarterback Garrett Nussmeier will get plenty of snaps tonight — and he has a cannon for an arm.

FINAL TAKE: LSU has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as a dog. Arkansas is just 4-11-2 ATS in their last 17 games when favored. Don’t be surprised if the Tigers pull the upset — but take the points for some insurance. 20* CFB Don’t Need the Points (but we will take the points) Underdog Special with the LSU Tigers (206) minus the points versus the Arkansas Razorbacks (205). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (150) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (149). THE SITUATION: Baylor (7-2) looks to rebound from a 30-28 upset loss at TCU as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday. Oklahoma (9-0) remained unbeaten with their 52-21 victory against Texas Tech as a 19.5-point favorite as a 19.5-point favorite on October 30th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: The Sooners are right in the heart of the College Football Playoff conversation with their unbeaten record — but this will be the most difficult game they have played so far this year when considering that their eight FBS opponents have combined for a 28-45 record (not including their victory against Western Carolina from the FCS). Their best win up to this point is probably their six-point win against a 6-3 Kansas State team. Five of their victories have been by a touchdown or less. Even with this soft schedule, the play of the Oklahoma defense once again appears to be a liability. They allow 24.2 Points-Per-Game and 383.9 total Yards-Per-Game — ranking 60th and 63rd in the nation. Injuries have not helped matters — but this remains a defense that is allowing 8.1 Yards-Per-Attempt from opposing quarterbacks while ranking 113th in the nation by giving up 272.9 passing YPG. Defensive coordinator Alex Grinch lost two cornerbacks to the NFL from last year — and sophomore cornerback Woodi Washington has been out with an injury — but these are ominous numbers heading into the most difficult part of their schedule. They do come off a bye week — but they are just 6-6 ATS in the 12 games under Lincoln Riley with an extra week to prepare. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by 20 or more points. And while freshman quarterback Caleb Williams passed for over 400 yards against the Red Raiders to lead an offense that generated 541 yards, the Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 375 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Oklahoma has scored at least 37 points in seven straight games after their narrow 16-13 escape at home against West Virginia in early September — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 31 points in five straight games. Baylor may have been caught looking ahead to this showdown last week in their upset loss to a Horned Frogs team motivated to play for head coach Gary Patterson who resigned after their previous game. The Bears can remove the bad taste in their mouth from that disappointing performance by stunning the undefeated Sooners — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset loss to a Big 12 rival where they were laying at least six points. Baylor has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. The Bears need to tighten up on defense after allowing TCU gain 570 yards. Baylor has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards. Head coach Dave Aranda has talent on defense with ten starters back from the COVID-marred rookie campaign with the team last year. The Bears had not allowed 30 points before last week with only Iowa State scoring more than 24 points against them. Baylor has a potent rushing attack that averages 5.9 Yards-Per-Carry and ranks seventh in the nation by generating 230.9 rushing YPG. By not asking junior quarterback Gerry Bohanon to do too much, the Bears are averaging a healthy 8.8 Yards-Per-Attempt. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 home games as an underdog. Furthermore, Baylor has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games against teams with a winning record — and they are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Aranda schemed a defense last year that limited the Sooners to just 269 total yards and 10 points in the first half in a 27-14 Oklahoma victory in Norman. Now the Bears host Oklahoma in Norman where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the Sooners. The inexperience of Williams at quarterback may lead to some nervy moments for the National Championship aspirations of Oklahoma. 25* CFB Big 12 Underdog of the Year with the Baylor Bears (150) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (149). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Panthers (116) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (115). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-2) has won five of their last six games with their 54-29 win at Duke as a 21-point road favorite on Saturday. North Carolina (5-4) has won two of their last three games with their 58-55 win against Wake Forest as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS MINUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 home games after a double-digit win against an ACC rival. Led by quarterback Kenny Pickett, the Panthers generated 638 yards of offense against the Blue Devils — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Pitt returns home where they are scoring 46.0 Points-Per-Game and averaging 569.2 total Yards-Per-Game. They are outscoring their guests by +23.4 PPG due to a defense that is only allowing 22.6 PPG. Despite the Panthers being coached by a defensive guru in Pat Narduzzi, they are thriving due to the play of their offense and the emergence of Pickett at quarterback. Pitt has averaged 562.3 total YPG in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after averaging at least 525 YPG in their last three contests. We had North Carolina last Saturday in their victory against the Demon Deacons — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after a straight-up win against an ACC foe and in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. The Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Now they go back on the road where they are winless in three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games. The weak link for North Carolina is their defense that allows 35.3 PPG and 404.3 total YPG on the road. The Tar Heels do not disrupt the quarterback — they rank 109th in the Pass Rush Pressure Rate. They also don’t protect their quarterback enough with their Havoc Rate Allowed that ranks 106th — and Narduzzi’s defense is 17th in the nation in Havoc Rate.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. 10* CFB North Carolina-Pittsburgh ESPN Special with the Pittsburgh Panthers (116) minus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (115). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (394) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (393). THE SITUATION: Purdue (5-3) enters this game coming off three 28-23 upset victory at Nebraska as a 7.5-point underdog last Saturday. Michigan State (8-0) comes off a 37-33 upset win at home against Michigan as a 4-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BOILERMAKERS PLUS THE POINTS: Purdue committed five turnovers two weeks ago in a loss to Wisconsin — but they turned the turnover tables on the Cornhuskers last week by generating a +4 net turnover margin. The Boilermakers handed Iowa their first loss of the season by a 24-7 score in Iowa City three weeks ago. Purdue returns home where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games as an underdog. The Boilermakers are stout on defense. They hold their opponents to just 17.1 Points-Per-Game and 313.8 total Yards-Per-Game — ranking tied for 10th and 17th in the nation respectively. They also rank 16th in the nation by averaging 307.0 passing  YPG. This combination of defense and a potent passing attack makes them a dangerous underdog. Purdue has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. They may be catching Michigan State on a hangover after their emotional comeback victory against their hated rival Michigan last week. The Spartans were trailing by two touchdowns in the second half before outscoring the Wolverines by a 23-3 margin to pull out the victory. Michigan State has covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in four straight games. The Spartans defeated Michigan despite getting outgained by -157 net yards. Michigan State surrendered 552 yards in that game. The Achilles’ heel of this team is the play of their defense. Opponents average 424.6 total YPG against them — ranking 101st in the nation. Sparty is particularly vulnerable against the pass as they rank 127th in the nation by allowing 300.5 passing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan State ranks third in the first College Football Playoff poll which may add some pressure on them for this game as they go from feisty overachievers under second-year head coach Mel Tucker to controlling their destiny to reach the playoffs. The Spartans have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in November — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at Purdue. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Purdue Boilermakers (394) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (393). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (340) minus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (339). THE SITUATION: North Carolina (4-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 44-34 loss at Notre Dame as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday. Wake Forest (8-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 45-7 victory at home against Duke as a 16-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS MINUS THE POINTS: The Demon Deacons raced out to a 28-0 halftime lead last week against the Blue Devils — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after taking at least a 24 point lead at halftime of their last game. Wake Forest has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. Additionally, the Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a win by at least four touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a win at home by 28 or more points. Quarterback Sam Hartman had another big game as he completed 24 of 37 passes for 402 yards with three touchdown passes while leading an offense that generated 677 total yards. But Wake Forest has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after gaining at least 525 yards in their last game. Turnover luck has helped the Demon Deacons cause as they have not committed more than one turnover in five straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after not committing more than one turnover in five straight games. Wake Forest has benefited from a soft schedule up to this point. Only Virginia and Army are FBS opponents that they have beaten that currently have winning records. While the Demon Deacons score plenty of points, that has overshadowed their suspect play on defense. They rank 99th in the FBS by allowing 421.5 total YPG. They have allowed their last three opponents to score 33.3 PPG and 474.4 total YPG. In their three road games, they have allowed their home hosts to score 36.7 PPG and average 538.3 total YPG. Wake Forest has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on grass (with their home games at Truist Field being played on field turf). North Carolina may possess the most potent offense that they placed all season. The Tar Heels are 12th in the nation by averaging 482.8 total YPG. Sam Howell completed 24 of 31 passes for 341 yards and added another 101 yards on the ground in their loss in South Bend. North Carolina has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss on the road. The Tar Heels did outgain the Fighting Irish last week by 39 yards by generating 564 yards of offense. They should be able to move the ball at will against the Demon Deacons. This team began the season with National Championship aspirations but an opening loss to Virginia Tech changed their realistic expectations. Ruining Wake Forest’s perfect season would give this group something to hang their hats on. North Carolina has not covered the point spread in four of their last five games — but they have then covered the point spread in 33 of their last 50 games after not covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Tar Heels return home where they are 4-1 this season with an average winning margin of +17.2 PPG. They average 45.2 PPG and 512.5 total YPG at home — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 34 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Wake Forest could not stop Howell and the Tar Heels’ offense last season — they lost in Chapel Hill by a 59-53 score. The Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at North Carolina. 25* CFB ACC Game of the Year with the North Carolina Tar Heels (340) minus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (339). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Carolina State Wolfpack (126) minus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (125). THE SITUATION: North Carolina State (5-2) had their four-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in a 31-30 loss at Miami (FL) as a 3.5-point favorite. Louisville (4-3) has won four in a row after a 28-14 win against Boston College as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLFPACK MINUS THE POINTS: NC State suffered their second upset loss this season with their loss to the Hurricanes. But the Wolfpack have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road by three points or less. NC State has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Quarterback Devin Leary completed 24 of 42 passes for 310 yards with two touchdown passes and a rushing touchdown in the loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Leary is completing 65% of his passes with 17 touchdown passes and two interceptions. The Wolfpack also has a stout defense. They are fourth in opponent’s Rush Success Rate — and they are allowing only 93.3 rushing YPG which is the tenth lowest in the nation. NC State is also 22nd in the nation in opponent’s Pass Success Rate. They return home where they are 4-0 this season with an average winning margin of +24.0 PPG. They are holding their guests to just 13.8 PPG and 290.3 total YPG — and they are scoring 37.8 PPG and 458.5 total YPG at home. The Wolfpack have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in all 6 games at home against ACC opponents. Louisville held the Eagles to just 266 total yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Despite that good effort, the Cardinals are still allowing 27.0 PPG ranking 76th in the nation — and they have given up at least 30 points four times this season. They lack a pass rush to put pressure on Leary. They also go on the road where they allow their home hosts to average 34.3 PPG and 507.7 YPG. Louisville is just 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games on the road — and they are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 road games as an underdog. Furthermore, the Cardinals are 10-24-1 ATS in their last 35 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games in October.

FINAL TAKE: NC State did not force a turnover last week — but they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after not forcing at least one turnover in their last game. Louisville committed four turnovers last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 44 games after committing at least four turnovers in their last game. 25* CFB Game of the Month with the North Carolina State Wolfpack (126) minus the points versus the Louisville Cardinals (125). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida Gators (198) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (197). THE SITUATION: Florida (4-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 49-42 upset loss at LSU as a 12.5-point favorite two weeks ago. Georgia (7-0) remained unbeaten with their 30-13 win against Kentucky two Saturdays ago as a 21.5-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GATORS PLUS THE POINTS: Turnovers did Florida in on the road in Baton Rouge two weeks ago. The Gators suffered a -4 net turnover margin in that game — but they have then covered the point spread in 32 of their last 48 games away from home after a game where they committed at least three turnovers. The ex-factor for head coach Dan Mullen is freshman quarterback Anthony Richardson who completed 10 of 19 passes for 167 yards while adding 37 rushing yards with a touchdown on the ground. The bye week should allow them time to develop more plays tailored for the exciting player who is averaging 12.6 Yards-Per-Carry and 18.7 Yards-Per-Completion. Florida gained 488 total yards against the Tigers in the loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Gators have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road after a loss by seven points or less to an SEC rival. Additionally, Florida has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games after a point spread loss. And in their last 20 games after a bye week, the Gators have covered the point spread in 14 of these games. Georgia dominated the Wildcats two weeks ago by averaging 8.9 Yards-Per-Play while holding them to 3.5 YPP — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after averaging at least 6.75 YPP and limiting their last opponent to 3.75 YPP in their last game. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in five of their seven games this season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Georgia is outstanding on defense as they have not allowed more than 13 points in a game all season — and they have held their last five opponents to 96 or fewer rushing yards. But the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in four straight games. Georgia has not committed a turnover in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not committing more than one turnover in three straight games. Quarterback J.T. Daniels is available to play this afternoon — but that may add some chaos into the equation for the favorites who have been riding senior Stetson Bennett for most of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia has the pressure of being the number one ranked team in the nation — and they have never been favored by more than 13 points against Florida in program history. Their 10-7 opening week win against Clemson does not look nearly as impressive two months later. The Gators will have the confidence that they can pull the upset. After playing Alabama close in the SEC Championship Game last year, Florida lost to the Crimson Tide by a 31-29 score as a 14-point underdog back on September 18th this season. And the Gators upset this Bulldogs team last year by a 44-28 score as a 3-point favorite in last year’s World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. 10* CFB Georgia-Florida CBS-TV Special with the Florida Gators (198) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (197). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (139) minus the point(s) versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (140). THE SITUATION: Rutgers (3-4) return to action on a four-game losing streak after their 21-7 upset loss at Northwestern as a 2.5-point favorite two weeks ago. Illinois (3-5) has won two of their last three games after their 20-18 upset win at Penn State in nine overtimes as a 24.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SCARLET KNIGHTS MINUS THE POINT(S): The bye week could not come soon enough for head coach Greg Schiano in his second year back coaching the Rutgers program. Injuries had hit both sides of the ball including quarterback Noah Vedral who played against Northwestern despite a nagging arm injury. The Scarlet Knights have already endured most of the brutal part of the Big Ten schedule against the powers in the East Division having played Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State during their recent losing streak. Rutgers has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset loss as a road favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after an upset loss to a conference rival. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. And while they managed only 222 total yards against the Wildcats, they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games. The Scarlet Knights thrive at defending against the run — they rank 21st in the nation in opponent’s Rushing Success Rate. Illinois is one-dimensional on offense running the ball 58% of the time. They lost quarterback Artur Sitkowksi to a season-ending broken arm in the upset win against the Nittany Lions last week. The former Rutgers transfer took the starting job away from Brandon Peters early in the season. Peters, a former transfer from Michigan, is completing under 49% of his passes while averaging just 5.0 yards per attempt this season. He has not thrown for more than 200 yards this season. There is a reason he left the Wolverines program. The Fighting Illini have passed for just 280 combined yards in their last four games. This group may be due for an emotional letdown after surviving the 2-point contest that their overtime game with Penn State devolved into. The Illini have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset win as a double-digit road underdog. The Fighting Illini ran the ball 67 times for 357 yards in the victory — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games at home after rushing for at least 300 yards. They only gained 38 yards in the air last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not passing for more than 75 yards in their last game. They host this game at Memorial Stadium where they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games with the Total set at 42 or less.

FINAL TAKE: First-year head coach Brett Bielema caught Penn State relying on quarterback Sean Clifford who was not 100% dealing with an undisclosed injury that clearly limited his mobility. Rutgers may be winless in Big Ten play — but they swept their three non-conference games including an impressive victory at Syracuse. The Scarlet Knights have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when favored. 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Month with the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (139) minus the point(s) versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (140). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the USC Trojans (407) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (408). THE SITUATION: USC (3-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 42-26 upset loss at home to Utah as a 2.5-point favorite on October 9th. Notre Dame (5-1) takes the field again after their 32-29 upset win at Virginia Tech as a 1-point underdog on October 9th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TROJANS PLUS THE POINTS: USC outgained the Utes two weeks ago by seven yards but lost the turnover battle en route to losing the game. The Trojans are 38-17-1 ATS in their last 56 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a double-digit loss at home. USC has also covered the pint spread in 12 of their last 15 games after allowing at least 42 points in their last game. The Trojans are in transition after firing head coach Clay Helton earlier in the season. Interim head coach Donte Williams is auditioning for a head coaching gig moving forward — and both coordinators have plenty to work for regarding future coaching gigs. USC seems to always be inconsistent — but after losing to Utah, the players should be motivated to play in South Bend against an arch-rival on national television. USC has covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And while the Trojans have played three straight Overs, they have then covered the point spread in 13  of their last 16 road games after playing at least three straight overs. Quarterback Kedon Slovis was banged up earlier in the season — but he is getting healthy again. He completed 33 of 53 passes for 401 yards with two touchdowns against a good Utah defense. The extra week of rest should help — and USC has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a bye week. Notre Dame has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a close win by three points or less on the road. That was the Fighting Irish’s third victory this season by just a field goal against mediocre competition after also just getting by Florida State and Toledo before the Hokies. Notre Dame is younger this year — and they are dealing with injuries. This Trojans team has more talent than those three teams they beat by a field goal — USC’s issue is focus. The Irish return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as a favorite. Notre Dame pinned their hopes on Wisconsin grad transfer Jack Coan at quarterback who lost his job to the guy struggling under center for the Badgers now. The Fighting Irish have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in October.

FINAL TAKE: USC has lost by just seven and three points — while covering the point spread — in their previous two encounters when unranked against an Irish team ranked in the top-15. 10* CFB USC-Notre Dame NBC-TV Special with the USC Trojans (407) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (408). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Army Black Knights (358) plus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (357). THE SITUATION: Army (4-2) has lost two games in a row after their 20-14 loss at Wisconsin as a 14-point underdog last Saturday. Wake Forest (6-0) returns to action after surviving a 40-37 win at Syracuse in overtime on October 9th as a 5.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK KNIGHTS PLUS THE POINTS: Army opened the season winning their first four games before getting upset at Ball State two weeks ago before their challenging trip to Madison to play the Badgers. The Black Knights managed only 266 total yards last week against the stout Wisconsin run defense — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not gaining at least 275 yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game. Army once again is one of the best rushing teams in the nation as they are averaging 295 rushing Yards-Per-Game with a 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry. Now Army returns home where they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Black Knights have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as an underdog. Army also plays tough defense. They are allowing only 20.7 PPG along with 281.7 total YPG — and they have held four of their six opponents to 21 points or less. Army limited Wisconsin to just 310 yards last week. Wake Forest remained unbeaten two weeks ago with their victory at Syracuse despite being outgained by -88 net yards. The Demon Deacons were also outgained by Louisville three weeks ago but also survived that game with a narrow win by a field goal. Wake Forest has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by three points or less on the road. Quarterback Sam Hartman did complete 19 of 32 passes for 330 yards against the Orange — but the Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last  8 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The play of the Wake Forest defense is a significant cause for concern after allowing the Cardinals and Orange to each generate over 500 yards. Both Louisville and Syracuse exposed the Wake Forest run defense by generating 213 and 354 rushing yards. Head coach Dave Clawson does have the extra week to prepare for the unique Army spread triple offense — but how much can be done to fix a defense that is allowing 4.4 Yards-Per-Carry? The Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the ACC. Wake Forest stays on the road for the second straight game where they are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 road games with the Total set in then 52.5 to 56 point range. Additionally, the Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games when favored by up to six points.

FINAL TAKE: Army has been an underdog against a Power Five conference team 9 times since 2016. They have covered the point spread in 7 of these games with two upset victories. 25* College Football Underdog of the Month with the Army Black Knights (358) plus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (357). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Appalachian State Mountaineers (308) plus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (307). THE SITUATION: Appalachian State (4-2) looks to bounce-back from their 41-13 upset loss at Louisiana-Lafayette as a 4-point favorite last Tuesday. Coastal Carolina (6-0) remained unbeaten this season by winning their seventh game in their last eighteen since the start of last season with their 52-20 victory at Arkansas State as a 20-point favorite back on October 7th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS PLUS THE POINTS: Appalachian State was flat on the road against a Ragin’ Cajuns team motivated to avenge a loss against them last year. We had Louisiana last week in that spot — and that loss sets up a nice situation for the Mountaineers. Head coach Shawn Clark can still have his team in the driver’s seat to win the Sub Belt East Division with a victory tonight. Appalachian State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss to a conference opponent. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss by 20 or more points — and in their three losses by at least four touchdowns in program history, they have responded to cover the point spread all 3 times. The Mountaineers have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Appalachian State returned ten starters and their top seven tacklers from their defense that was 18th in the nation by allowing only 328.8 total YPG. The bigger concerns may be on offense after former Clemson and Duke transfer quarterback Chase Brice may have played the worst game of his career by throwing two interceptions to the Ragin’ Cajuns while completing 15 of 27 passes for only 135 yards. The Mountaineers are banged up at running back as well with Camerun Peoples missing the last two games and Daetrick Harrington and Nate Noel questionable. Former Notre Dame transfer Jahmir Smith is healthy — so Appalachian State still has talent at the position even if all three of those other backs cannot take the field. The Mountaineers rank 20th in the nation in Offensive Success Rate. They should play better. Coastal Carolina had failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game where at least 70 combined points were scored. And while sophomore quarterback Grayson McCall completed 18 of 23 passes for 365 yards against the Red Wolves — but the Chanticleers have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after passing for at least 325 yards in their last game. Coastal Carolina has benefited from a soft early schedule — their wins have come against one FCS program in The Citadel and just one FBS team in Kansas. Their Group of Five campaign so far has been against Massachusetts, UL-Monroe, Buffalo, and then Arkansas State. This is — by far — their biggest test this season after being a two-touchdown favorite or better in their first six games. The Chanticleers are playing their second straight game on the road — and playing in hostile environments is not a normal occurrence for this team that benefited from limited crowds in their road games during the pandemic in their 11-1 season a year ago. Coastal Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as a favorite laying 3.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: Appalachian State is not an underdog often when playing at home at Kidd Brewer Stadium in Boone. The Mountaineers have lost only five times at home since 2015. Appalachian State has covered the point s spread in 7 of their last 8 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as a dog getting 3.5 to 10 points. 25* CFB Wednesday ESPN2 Game of the Year with the Appalachian State Mountaineers (308) plus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas State Wildcats (198) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (197). THE SITUATION: Kansas State (3-2) has lost two games in a row after their 37-31 loss to Oklahoma two weeks ago on October 2nd as a 12-point underdog. Iowa State (3-2) has won two of their last three games after their 59-7 win against Kansas as a 34.5-point favorite two Saturdays ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Kansas State lost to the Sooners despite outgaining them by +28 net yards. Quarterback Skylar Thomson completed 29 of 41 passes for 320 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions in a losing effort. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Kansas State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their las 5 games after losing two of their last three games. This program under head coach Bill Snyder and now Chris Klieman have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a bye week. They stay at home where they are scoring 33.3 PPG and outgaining their guests by +66.3 net Yards-Per-Game. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home as an underdog. Kansas State has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games as a dog overall — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games against Big 12 opponents. And in their last 55 games in October, the Wildcats are 37-16-2 ATS. Iowa State may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 28 or more points. Additionally, the Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 50 points in their last game. Iowa State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. After committing four turnovers in their showdown with Iowa last month, the Cyclones have not committed more than one turnover in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not committing more than one turnover in three straight games. Now this team goes on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas State has likely had this game circled after getting embarrassed in Ames last year where the Cyclones crushed them by a 45-0 score. The Wildcats will have revenge on their mind — and they upset Iowa State two years ago in Manhattan by a 27-17 score as a 4-point underdog. 25* CFB Saturday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Kansas State Wildcats (198) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (197). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (174) minus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (173). THE SITUATION: Texas (4-2) looks to rebound from their 55-48 loss to Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry as a 4-point underdog last Saturday. Oklahoma State (5-0) remained undefeated two weeks ago with their 24-114 win against Baylor as a 4-point favorite on October 2nd.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS MINUS THE POINTS: Texas blew a 41-23 lead to lose to the Sooners last week. The Longhorns did eclipse the 45 point mark last week for the third time this season. Under first-year head coach Steve Sarkisian, Texas has been explosive on offense averaging 44.5 PPG, fifth-best in the nation. Sarkisian has one of the best running backs in the nation in Bijan Robinson who is third in the nation in rushing yards. But this offense became even more potent when Sarkisian moved to Casey Thompson as his starting quarterback. The fourth-year junior averaged 11.4 Yards-Per-Attempt last week against the Sooners’ defense. He completed 20 of 34 passes for 388 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. The Longhorns are scoring 52 PPG and generating 547.3 total YPG since Thompson became the starting quarterback. Texas has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Texas is also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. And while the Longhorns averaged 8.6 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after averaging at least 6.75 YPP in their last game. Texas did not commit more than one turnover last week for the sixth straight time this season — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not committing more than one turnover in four straight games. Oklahoma State committed three turnovers in their win against the Bears two weeks ago — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after committing at least three turnovers in their last game. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Oklahoma State is playing great defense this season — they are holding their opponents to 18.6 PPG. But despite that nice number, they rank just 105th in the nation in tackling effectiveness — a daunting metric when now facing Robinson who broke ten tackles last week. And while the Cowboys have not allowed more than 123 rushing yards this season, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in at least four straight games. The Oklahoma State offense will struggle to keep up with the Longhorns. Their four victories against FBS opponents were by only 1, 5, 10, and 11 points. They are scoring just 25.4 PPG and averaging only 3.7 rushing Yards-Per-Carry. Quarterback Spencer Sanders has only thrown for five touchdown passes in five games — and he has committed six turnover-worthy plays. He threw three picks against Baylor in his last game. Now this team goes on the road for just the second time all season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 road games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Texas has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when favored. Look for the unbeaten Cowboys to get exposed this afternoon. 10* CFB Oklahoma State-Texas Fox-TV Special with the Texas Longhorns (174) minus the points versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys (173). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (108) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (107). THE SITUATION: Louisiana (4-1) has won four games in a row after their 20-18 win at South Alabama as a 12-point favorite on October 2nd. Appalachian State (4-1) has won three games in a row with their 45-16 win against Georgia State as a 10.5-point favorite two Saturdays ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAGIN’ CAJUNS PLUS THE POINTS: Louisiana is not being given much respect by bettors after three of their victories have been by eight points or less. The Ragin’ Cajuns have only covered the point spread in a 49-14 blowout win against Ohio this season — by they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. The team misses their running back duo from last season in Elijah Mitchell and Trey Ragas who moved on to the NFL (with Mitchell now a primary back for San Francisco). But in head coach Billy Napier I trust — and he has a senior-laden team with 20 starters back from last year’s group that qualified for the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game for the third straight season. The offense is led by fifth-year senior and third-year starter Levi Lewis who has won a bunch of games for this team. The dual-threat quarterback only passed for 49 yards last week — but Louisiana has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not passing for more than 75 yards in their last game. Lewis is completing 62.7% of his passes with only one interception in his 150 pass attempts. The Ragin’ Cajun defense has not allowed more than 24 points in their last four games after giving up 38 points in their opening game loss at Texas to begin the season. Louisiana has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog. And after playing their last two games on the road, they return home where they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 home games when getting up to 7 points. Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a victory by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by 21 or more points against a conference rival. The Mountaineers generated 502 yards against the Panthers last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Second-year head coach Shawn Clark has 17 starters back from the team that finished 9-3 last year. But they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Louisiana had lost all eight of their games with Appalachian State since 2014 -- including twice in 2019 including the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game — before avenging that loss last season with a 24-21 upset win in Boone on December 4th as a 3-point underdog. This is a crucial game for the Mountaineers who have Coastal Carolina on deck and little wiggle-room in the SBC West Division to take a loss. As it is, Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when favored. The Ragin’ Cajuns are in better shape in the East Division to reach the championship game for a fourth straight season (last year’s game was a COVID cancellation) — but the Mountaineers remain their white whale even after last year’s triumph. Expect a close game with Louisiana in a position to win late. 10* CFB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (108) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (107). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (347) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (348). THE SITUATION: Utah (2-2) comes off a 24-13 win against Washington State as a 15-point favorite back on September 25th. USC (3-2) beat Colorado by a 37-14 score in Boulder as a 9.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES PLSU THE POINTS: Utah lost two non-conference games at BYU and San Diego State — but they are unbeaten in Pac-12 play. Head coach Kyle Whittingham will have his team ready to play with an extra week to rest and prepare. The Utes have covered the point spread in 37 of their last 57 games after a bye week. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win in conference play. Utah has also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a double-digit win in Pac-12 play. The Utes defense is consistently good — and they are allowing only 22.3 PPG and 304.0 total YPG despite a challenging early schedule. Utah has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. They are stable at quarterback now under sixth-year senior Cameron Rising being the clear starter after Charlie Brewer left the team (after losing this job). Now this team goes on the road where they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games against teams with a winning record. Utah is 46-22-2 ATS in their last 70 games as an underdog — and they are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 road games as an underdog. The Utes have covered the point spread in 7 straight games in October under Whittingham. USC may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Interim head coach Donte Williams called out his team this week despite the victory given the group’s loose play with fumbles, penalties, and too many celebrations. The players are behaving like they have a substitute teacher — and that is not a good way to then play a well-coached team like Utah. The Trojans are 1-2 at home in the Coliseum where they are getting outscored by a field goal and surrendering 31.3 PPG and 428.7 total YPG. USC has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 home games when favored by up to a field goal.

FINAL TAKE: Utah will be motivated to avenge a 33-17 loss at home to USC last season as a 1-point underdog. The Utes have cord the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games under Whittingham in conference play. 10* CFB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Utah Utes (347) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (348). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (359) plus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (360). THE SITUATION: LSU (3-2) had their three-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in a 24-19 upset loss at home to Auburn as a 3-point favorite. Kentucky (5-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 20-13 upset win at home against Florida as a 7.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: LSU suffered their second upset loss this season after opening the year with an upset loss at UCLA. The Tigers have been resilient under head coach Ed Orgeron. LSU has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after an upset loss to an SEC rival as a home favorite — and they have covered the point spread 16 of their last 22 games on the road after an upset loss. The Tigers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, LSU has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. The Tigers are scoring 31.4 PPG this season. They are getting good play from sophomore quarterback Max Johnson who is completing 62.4% of their passes with 16 touchdowns. He completed 26 of 46 passes for 325 yards in the loss to Auburn. LSU’s defense gave up 453 yards to Auburn — but they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Despite the loss, they have not given up more than 25 points in four straight games. The Tigers go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 road games against teams with a winning record at home. LSU has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. The Tigers have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games in October. Kentucky enjoyed their biggest victory of the season buy upsetting the Gators — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after an upset victory against an SEC rival where they were getting at least six points. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win at home against a conference rival. Kentucky pulled off the upset despite getting outgained by -158 net yards and losing the first down battle, 21-13.3 The Wildcats upset a Florida team that was competitive against Alabama — but they also only beat UT-Chattanooga by five points despite being a 31-point favorite. Kentucky is living dangerously with a -9 net turnover margin. They have only forced three turnovers all season with one takeaway in three games. The Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not forcing more than one turnover in five straight games.

FINAL TAKE: This is an important game for this LSU program since they will likely be underdogs in the subsequent three games over a difficult stretch where they play Florida then at Mississippi and at Alabama. 25* CFB SEC Underdog of the Month with the LSU Tigers (359) plus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (360). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (341) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (342). THE SITUATION: Boise State (2-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 41-31 upset loss at home to Nevada as a 4-point favorite last Saturday. BYU (5-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 34-20 victory at Utah State as an 8.5-point favorite last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: Boise State outgained the Wolf Pack by +57 yards but they were undone by a -3 net turnover margin. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after playing a game where they had a -3 or worse net turnover margin. Boise State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The Broncos have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing two of their last three contests. It has been a disappointing start for new head coach Andy Avalos — but his team has played a tough schedule. Their three losses were to Oklahoma State, Central Florida, and then a solid Nevada team last week. Boise State can rack up points with Hank Bachmeier under center. They rank 17th in Success Rate in the passing game with a star wide receiver in Khalil Shakir and Bachmeier averaging 8.3 Yards-Per-Attempt. He completed 34 of 48 passes for 388 yards with four touchdowns against the Wolf Pack. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 46 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread 7 of their last 8 games on the road as an underdog. BYU got the benefit of a +2 net turnover margin in their win against the Aggies on October 1st. The Cougars have then failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games at home after a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. BYU has only committed two turnovers all season — and they have not turned the ball over in their last two games. But the Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not turning the ball over in two straight games. BYU is only outgaining their opponents by +27.0 net Yards-Per-Game this season. Boise State should be able to move the ball in the air against this Cougars defense that ranks 98th in Success Rate in the passing game. BYU is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games when favored — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. 

FINAL TAKE: The Cougars are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a losing record. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Boise State Broncos (341) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (342). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tulane Green Wave (304) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (303). THE SITUATION: Tulane (1-4) looks to bounce-back from their 52-29 upset loss at East Carolina as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Houston (4-1) won their fourth game in a row after their 45-10 upset victory at Tulsa as a 3.5-point underdog last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GREEN WAVE PLUS THE POINTS: Tulane has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread loss. The Green Wave has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a loss by 20 or more points under head coach Willie Fritz. Tulane started the season with optimism with 16 starters back from a team that finished 6-6 after losing to Navy, SMU, and Tulsa on the final play of the game. A 40-35 loss in Norman at Oklahoma to begin the season was encouraging before they crushed Morgan State. They had a tough assignment at Ole Miss the next week — but they have been favored the last two weeks at home against UAB and then at East Carolina last week. The schedule has been a challenge. Turnovers are killing this team — they are fourth in the nation by averaging three turnovers per game with second-year freshman quarterback Michael Plitt responsible for nine of them. The defense is getting mauled — but the schedule has not helped. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Tulane has been a much more reliable team at home under Fritz where they are 36-17-1 ATS in their last 54 games. The Green Wave have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games as an underdog. They also have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in October. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a win by 20 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a point spread win. Additionally, the Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Houston has had just a 7-13 record in the first two seasons under head coach Dana Holgorsen. He has talent with a bevy of transfers adding to his slew of redshirts from two seasons ago when he shut a bunch of players down in his first year with the team after four games to maintain their eligibility. After a 17-point loss at home Texas Tech, a favorable schedule against Rice, Grambling, a struggling Navy team, and then the Golden Hurricane has helped them put up great numbers on both sides of the football. But in Houston’s last 16 games on the road when favored, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: The home team has won and covered the point spread in the last four meetings between these two teams. Fritz will remind his team of their 49-31 loss at Houston last season. 10* CFB Houston-Tulane ESPN Special with the Tulane Green Wave (304) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (214) plus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (213). THE SITUATION: Middle Tennessee (1-3) looks to rebound from their 42-39 loss at Charlotte as a 2.5-point underdog last Friday. Marshall (2-2) comes off a 31-30 loss at Appalachian State as a 7-point underdog last Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: Middle Tennessee has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a loss to a Conference USA rival — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a narrow loss to a conference opponent by seven points or less. After winning their opening game at home at Monmouth, the Blue Raiders have lost three in a row — all on the road — to Virginia Tech, UTSA, and the 49ers last week. Tough stretch. Veteran head coach Rick Stockstill will tell his team to take advantage of playing back at home at Floyd Stadium since they head back on another three-game road swing. This is the middle of a brutal stretch where six of their seven games are away from home. Middle Tennessee has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in October under Stockstill, coaching the team in his sixteenth season. Quarterback Bailey Hockman left the team after the loss at UTSA to tend his new family — but the Blue Raiders are in fine hands under Chase Cunningham. The redshirt junior completed 28 of 40 passes for 379 yards and five touchdowns without an interception last week. Middle Tennessee needs to shore up their defense after allowing 559 yards including 330 yards in the air. The Blue Raiders have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Marshall has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a point spread win. The Thundering Herd got outgained by -169 net yards after surrendering 566 yards to the Mountaineers last week. Marshall has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after getting outgained by at least 125 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 450 yards. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. The Thundering Herd has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Former Alabama running backs coach Charles Huff is in his first season as the Marshall head coach — but his football team has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games when favored including four of these last five situations. Stockstill has 19 starters back from the team that lost at Marshall last November 14th by a 42-14 score. Expect a close game. 10* CFB Big Dog Surprise with the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (214) plus the points versus the Marshall Thundering Herd (213). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia Southern Eagles (204) minus the point(s) versus the Arkansas State Red Wolves (203). THE SITUATION: Georgia Southern (1-3) has lost three straight games after their 28-20 loss to Louisiana as a 14.5-point underdog last Saturday. Arkansas State (1-3) has also lost their last three games after their 41-34 loss at Tulsa as a 14.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINT(S): Georgia Southern won the yardage battle, 453 to 378, against a Ragin’ Cajuns team that fancies themselves as the best Group of Five football team in the nation this season (despite an opening loss at Texas). But after blowout losses on the road at FAU and Arkansas before that loss, the Eagles administration decided to relieve head coach Chad Lunsford of his duties. Georgia Southern has not been satisfied with its football program since Willie Fritz left for Tulane in 2016. They brought in Colorado State defensive coordinator Tyson Summers but he was not a good fit for the program. Lunsford took over midway through Summers’ second season after a disastrous 0-6 start. The longtime assistant did a fine job of re-establishing the culture that Fritz had established — but he was probably not the coach to keep this program at the level it had been under Fritz. Georgia Southern will likely take a long time in conducting a national search to correct the mistake they made in tapping Summers over five years ago. Cornerbacks coach Kevin Whitley takes over as the interim head coach in the meantime. Lunsford was liked by the players — but his firing also called out the 16 starters returning from last year’s 8-5 team. Look for this team to rally around each other — and Whitley — in this important game for the program. As it is, the Eagles have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss to a Sun Belt Conference rival. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 home games when playing with six days or less of rest. Furthermore, Georgia Southern has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Arkansas State covered the two-touchdown spread against the Golden Hurricane last week benefitting from a 63-yard punt return for a touchdown and a 93-yard kickoff return for a touchdown. But the Red Wolves have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread win. Arkansas State surrendered a whopping 663 yards of offense to Tulsa while getting outgained by 304 net yards. The Red Wolves have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Arkansas State surrendered 8.96 Yards-Per-Play last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing their last opponent to generate at least 7.25 YPP. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games coming off a road game where both teams scored at least 31 points. Arkansas State opened their season by defeating Central Arkansas, an FCS opponent. After losing by just five points to Memphis, they got housed on the road at Washington two weeks ago by a 52-3 score against a previously winless Huskies team.

FINAL TAKE: This is a tough situational spot for the Red Wolves with this being their third straight game away from home and out-of-state. And Whitley will be able to squeeze out some extra motivation from his team by reminding them of their 38-33 loss at Arkansas State two years ago as a 1-point underdog in their last meeting on November 23rd of 2019. 20* CFB Saturday Discounted Deal with the Georgia Southern Eagles (204) minus the point(s) versus the Arkansas State Red Wolves (203). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (387) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (388). THE SITUATION: UTSA (3-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 27-13 victory against Middle Tennessee as an 11.5-point favorite last Saturday. Memphis (3-0) comes off a 31-28 upset win at home against Mississippi State as a 3-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROADRUNNERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Tigers were very fortunate to pull off the upset victory against an SEC opponent last week. They needed a 49-yard interception return for a touchdown and a 94-yard punt return for a touchdown to overcome them getting outgained by -222 net yards. Memphis only gained 246 yards and 12 first downs in the game. Now off the emotional high from a signature win against a Power-Five conference opponent and with a date at conference rival Temple next week, this is a dangerous sandwich game against a talented UTSA squad that has had this game circled to make the statement they hope to make this season. As it is, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last contest. After Brady White graduated, head coach Ryan Silverfield hoped to place another former Arizona State transfer under center in Grant Gunnell — but a preseason leg injury has kept him out of action. Silverfield has turned to true freshman Seth Henigan as his starting quarterback. While the rookie has passed for 841 yards, he struggled last week by passing for just 159 yards despite completing 16 of 28 passes. The running game did not offer much help either as the Tigers ran for just 87 yards on 25 carries. The Memphis pass defense has been exposed so far this season as well — they rank 102nd in opponent’s Pass Success Rate and 82nd in Havoc Rate. The Tigers do have a 17-game winning streak at home at the Liberty Bowl — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored. UTSA wants to claim the prize of being the best Group of Five teams in the nation. Second-year head coach Jeff Taylor has 21 starters back from the team that finished 7-5 that only lost to Louisiana by a 31-24 score in the First Responder Bowl. They opened their season by upsetting Illinois on the road. The Roadrunners returned their top 14 tacklers from last year and added three transfers from Power-Five programs. They held the Blue Raiders to just 199 yards last week. The offense has all five starters back on the offensive line plus both quarterbacks who played last year. Dual-threat Frank Harris ran for 56 yards last week — and he completed 24 of 39 passes for 264 yards with two touchdown passes. Running back Sincere McCormick rushed for 1476 yards last season. Traylor did not have the benefit of spring practices due to COVID — so this season has presented his first offseason with the program from the former SMU running backs coach. UTSA has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Roadrunners have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: UTSA has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games as an underdog — and Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored. UTSA wants to make a similar statement that the Tigers were fortunate to make last week. With Memphis perhaps looking ahead to American Athletic Conference play — and relying on a true freshman in what may become an anxious game — don’t be surprised if the Roadrunners pull the upset (but take the points for some insurance). 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (387) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (388). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the TCU Horned Frogs (390) minus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (389). THE SITUATION: TCU (2-0) is undefeated so far this season after their 34-32 win against California two weeks ago as an 11.5-point favorite. SMU (3-0) is also unbeaten this year after their 39-37 win at Louisiana Tech last Saturday as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNED FROGS MINUS THE POINTS: TCU outgained the Golden Bears by a 505-442 yardage mark two weeks ago — but Max Duggan throwing an 84-yard interception that was returned for a touchdown helped Cal stay competitive in the game. TCU controlled possession for 36:23 minutes in the game which is a good sign for head coach Gary Patterson. The extra week to rest and prepare for the Mustangs will help the defensive mastermind shore up a unit that gave up an uncharacteristic 442 total yards. TCU has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in a decisive 43 of their last 68 games after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Horned Frogs gained 505 total yards against Cal — and they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 475 yards in their last game. TCU’s offense had to overcome many injuries early in the season last year. After a rough 1-3 start, the Horned Frogs finished strong by winning five of their last six games — so they enter this contest on a seven of eight-run overall. Duggan is a third-year sophomore quarterback who looks poised for a breakout season. He completed 17 of 31 passes for 2234 yards with three touchdowns against Cal while adding 71 rushing yards with another touchdown on the ground. Running back Zach Evans added 190 rushing yards in that game. The Horned Frogs’ defense should play better with seven starters back from the unit that allowed 24.2 PPG and 351 total Yards-Per-Game. TCU hosts this game where they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games when favored. SMU got a 33-yard hail mary touchdown pass from quarterback Tanner Mordecai on the final play of the game to avoid being upset by Louisiana Tech last weekend. But the Mustangs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road after a victory where they did not cover the point spread — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 21 games after a close win decided by three points or less. The defense for head coach Sonny Dykes looks to be a problem once again this season. After giving up 506 yards to North Texas two weeks ago, Louisiana Tech generated 483 yards. Now they face another spread offensive attack but now with Power-Five conference recruits. The deeper metrics indict the unit. The Mustangs are just 88th in the nation in Adjusted Line Yards allowed indicating their struggles in stopping the run. They rank 74th in opponent’s Success Rate against the pass — and they are just 96th in Havoc Rate on defense. They have allowed 384 and 351 passing yards in their last two games — and they have then failed to cover the point spread 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 325 passing yards in their last game. SMU stays on the road for the second straight week where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 road games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 10 points. The Mustangs have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in expected high-scoring games with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Patterson has had two weeks to pound into his team the memory of their 41-38 loss at home to SMU back on September 21st in the last meeting between these two teams. TCU was a 7.5-point favorite in that game. 25* CFB Saturday FS1-TV Game of the Month with the TCU Horned Frogs (390) minus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (389). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Virginia Cavaliers (308) minus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (307). THE SITUATION: Virginia (2-1) lost the first game of their season last Saturday with their 59-39 loss at North Carolina as a 7.5-point underdog. Wake Forest (3-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 35-14 victory at home against Florida State as a 4.5-point favorite as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS MINUS THE POINTS: Virginia was facing a Tar Heels team already with one loss on the season highly motivated to avenge a loss from last year — so that was a tough situation (and we had North Carolina in that one). The Cavaliers have rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Virginia generated 574 yards against the Tar Heels defense in the loss — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Now the Cavaliers return home where they have won 19 of their last 21 games under head coach Bronco Mendenhall. Virginia may have been just 5-5 last year in the season impacted by COVID following their big 2019 campaign where they made it to the ACC Championship Game and played in the Orange Bowl — but they were 5-1 straight-up at home. The Cavaliers are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home when favored. Virginia is also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Mendenhall has 14 starters back plus some high-profile transfers back this season that won four of their last five games after a rough 1-4 start in an injury-riddled campaign. Junior quarterback Brennan Armstrong is back after he passed for at least 200 yards while rushing for at least 45 yards six times last year. He completed 39 of 54 passes for 554 yards with four touchdown passes against North Carolina last week. The play of the Virginia defense should improve under Mendenhall who is one of the best defensive teachers in the nation. The Cavaliers are 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 games against teams with a winning record. Wake Forest comes off a big win against a reeling Seminoles team that remains winless this season — and they benefited from a +4 net turnover margin in that contest. Now the Demon Deacons play their first game away from Winston Salem this season — and they are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games on the road this season. Wake Forest has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Demon Deacons are tough to beat at home where they now have an 11-2 straight-up record in the last three seasons — but they have only won three of their last eleven games on the road during that span. Head coach Dave Clawson has 19 starters back from the group that finished 4-5 last year after a 45-28 loss to Wisconsin in the Mayo Bowl. Wake Forest was 3-4 in ACC play — but they were outgained by -55 net Yards-Per-Game. They were also outscored by -23 Points-Per-Game in their eight games against FBS opponents last year. They allowed 37 or more points five times last season. Their first two games this season were against Old Dominion and Norfolk State before their victory against Florida State last week. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in September.

FINAL TAKE: Virginia will be motivated to avenge a 40-23 loss at Wake Forest as a 2.5-point underdog last season on October 17th. After the Cavaliers lost to a one-loss Tar Heels team playing at home with the opportunity to avenge a loss from last year, now Virginia finds themselves in that same spot. While that scenario is certainly not an auto-bet situation, the Cavaliers are tough at home at Scott Stadium and the Demon Deacons struggle on the road. 25* CFB Friday Television Game of the Month with the Virginia Cavaliers (308) minus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (203) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (204). THE SITUATION: Fresno State (2-1) comes off a 63-10 victory against Cal-Poly SLO last week as a 32.5-point favorite on Saturday. UCLA (2-0) returns to action after their 38-27 upset win at home against LSU as a 1-point underdog two weeks ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bruins have been hearing about how good they all are for the last two weeks and how they are destined to play for the Pac-12 Championship. After head coach Chip Kelly compiled a 10-21 record in his first three seasons with the program, the only place to go was up. But handling the weight of expectations is new to these players. As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored. It has been as close to an ideal start as possible for this team. They have yet to commit a turnover — and they are holding their opponents to just 5.8 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt. But perhaps their first two opponents were just not very good. Hawai’i just lost to Oregon State by a 45-27 score last week. LSU is a mess and probably overconfident in that game playing a Pac-12 program that finished 3-4 last season. Senior quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson still has his shaky moments. The Bruins have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Fresno State is dangerous — as they demonstrated in a 31-24 loss at Oregon, the team that then upset Ohio State in Columbus the next week. Some critics discount that result as the Ducks looking ahead to the Buckeyes — but I don’t buy it. The Bulldogs rebounded from that loss to beat their last two opponents by a 108-10 point margin. Fresno State should enter this game with confidence as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win by 20 or more points. Head coach Kalen DeBoer has 19 starters back from the team that finished 3-3. For the third straight season, the Bulldogs averaged at least 30 Points-Per-Game with their 32.8 PPG scoring mark. Led by senior quarterback Jake Haener once again after he lead the Mountain West Conference by averaging 336.8 passing YPG, Fresno State is scoring 44.0 PPG this year. The former Washington transfer completed 17 of 22 passes last week for 380 yards and four touchdowns while leading the offense to 671 yards of offense. The Bulldogs are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games after gaining at least 280 yards in the air in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 39 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. With 1st-Team All-Mountain West Conference running back Ronnie Rivers back along with four returning starters at wide receiver and tight end, this team has the offensive firepower to keep up with the Bruins. Fresno State is 18-7-1 in their last 26 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 road games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Bulldogs are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games in September — and they are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games against non-conference opponents. UCLA is 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games in September — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games against non-conference foes. 10* CFB Saturday Late Show Bailout with Fresno State Bulldogs (203) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (204). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (186) minus the points versus Virginia Cavaliers (185). THE SITUATION: North Carolina (1-1) bounced-back from their opening week loss to Virginia Tech by crushing Georgia State by a 59-17 score as a 26-point favorite last Saturday. Virginia (2-0) is unbeaten after their 42-14 win against Illinois as a 10.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS MINUS THE POINTS: I was not terribly surprised that North Carolina got upset on the road against the Hokies two weeks ago. Mack Brown’s team may have been a bit overrated after returning 21 of the 22 starters that played in the Orange Bowl against Texas A&M last season. But this is a talented team that Brown has assembled — he is recruiting great in Chapel Hill. Sophomore quarterback Sam Howell rebounded by completing 21 of 29 passes for 352 yards with two touchdown passes as he continues to get more comfortable with his new set receivers after Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome went pro in the offseason. North Carolina absolutely dominated the Panthers by gaining 607 yards and allowing only 271 yards. The Tar Heels averaged 8.54 Yards-Per-Play while holding Georgia State to 3.61 YPP — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a game where they averaged at least 6.75 YPP and held their opponent to 3.75 YPP. Furthermore, North Carolina has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last contest. The Tar Heels returned ten starters and 82% of their production on defense from last season. Furthermore, North Carolina has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games when favored. Virginia has dominated their first two opponents in William & Mary and the Illini. But this is a program that does not fare well after consecutive dominating performances. The Cavaliers gained 545 and 556 yards in their first two games but they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 475 yards in their last two games. And while Virginia outgained those two opponents by +382 and +221 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after outgaining their last two opponents by at least +125 yards. Now this team plays their first road game of the season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as the underdog.

FINAL TAKE: North Carolina’s dreams of a perfect season may be gone — but they can still earn the right to play in the ACC Championship Game. They can also avenge their 44-41 loss at Virginia last season where they were 8-point road favorites. The Tar Heels were second in the ACC last year by outgaining their opponents by +148 net Yards-Per-Game. They tend to be reliable favorites (despite the upset loss on the road to the Cavaliers last year). 25* CFB ACC Game of the Month with the North Carolina Tar Heels (186) minus the points versus Virginia Cavaliers (185). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Arkansas State Red Wolves (370) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (369). THE SITUATION: Arkansas State (1-0) opened their season with a 40-21 victory against Central Arkansas as a 14-point favorite last Saturday. Memphis (1-0) comes off a 42-17 win against Nicholls State last Saturday as a 22.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RED WOLVES PLUS THE POINTS: So far, so good for the new Butch Jones era. The former head coach at Central Michigan, Cincinnati, and Tennessee has a career 84-54 record before serving as an offensive analyst at Alabama the last two seasons. Jones’ era in Knoxville failed (it is a tough job) — but he is a gifted offensive mind who had success everywhere else before failing in the SEC (but still be given the Nick Saban blessing). Jones brought in a bunch of transfers to inject the program with talent. One of the high-profile transfers was former Florida State quarterback James Blackman who completed 16 of 26 passes for 169 yards last week. Layne Hatcher is still with the program after being in a timeshare with Logan Bonner. Bonner transferred to Utah State to stay with former Arkansas State head coach Blake Anderson who took that head coaching job, but it looks like the time-share will continue. Bonner did his part last week — he completed all 12 of his passes for 150 yards and four touchdown passes. The Red Wolves generated 515 total yards last week. Arkansas State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home. Additionally, the Red Wolves have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams outside the Sun Belt Conference — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games in September. Furthermore, Arkansas State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog. Memphis dominated an FCS opponent last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win. Additionally, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Memphis has sixteen starters back from the team that finished 8-3 after beating FAU in the Montgomery Bowl by a 25-10 score. Head coach Ryan Silverfield was counting on Arizona transfer Grant Gunnell as his starting quarterback but a leg injury has him out. True freshman Seth Henigan gets the start after completing 19 of 32 passes for 265 yards as the starter last week. Playing at home against an FCS opponent is one thing, playing on the road against an FBS in your first career collegiate start on the road is quite another. As it is, Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Tigers may have issues in pressuring the quarterback after getting only one sack and only two quarterback hurries against Nicholls State last week. Arkansas State will have revenge on their mind after losing at Memphis last season by a 37-23 score as an 18.5-point underdog. While rotating quarterbacks may not be a good formula to win National Championships, it is disruptive to the opposing defenses which help underdogs cover. Expect a close game. 10* CFB Don’t Need the Points (but take the points for some insurance) Special with the Arkansas State Red Wolves (370) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (369). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (350) minus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (349). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (1-0) comes off a 16-10 win against Northern Iowa as a 28.5-point favorite last Saturday. Iowa (1-0) smothered Indiana last week by a 34-6 score as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES MINUS THE POINTS: Money is pouring in on the Hawkeyes after Iowa State did not look particularly impressive last week against an FCS program. The close score did not bother me at all. The Cyclones were slowed down by a -2 net turnover margin. It is not uncommon for the Panthers to play Iowa and Iowa State tough when they get their opportunities to play the two biggest schools in the state. Additionally, head coach Matt Campbell tends to see his teams start slow in September — he saves many of his best schemes for Big 12 play. But after his team reached the Big 12 Championship Game last year, the Cyclones are a legitimate playoff contender — so I expect Campbell to unleash their “A-Game” for this nationally televised showdown. Campbell has 20 starters back from his team that finished 9-3 last season after beating Oregon, 34-17, in the Fiesta Bowl — and they had an 8-1 mark in the Big 12. They outgained Big 12 opponents by +112 net Yards-Per-Game. Iowa State should play very well in this game. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games after playing a game where no more than 29 combined points were scored. The Cyclones debunk the stereotype that Big 12 teams do not play defense as they ranked 21st in the nation by holding their opponents to just 340.4 total YPG. They have an underrated defensive coordinator in Jon Heacock — and he is an expert at making adjustments. Iowa State only allowed 16 combined points in the second half of their last five games. The Cyclones have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after not allowing more than 17 points in their last game. The offense has all 11 starters back from a unit that scored 32.9 PPG last year — the second-highest mark in school history. The Cyclones scored at least 30 points eight times. Brock Purdy is a senior three-year starter who was the first-team All-Big 12 quarterback last season. Breece Hall is a returning All-American running back who averaged 146 yards from scrimmage per game. Charlie Kolar is a returning All-American tight end. the offensive line returns all five starters from a unit that was one of the 11 semifinalists for the Joe Moore Award for the nation’s best offensive line — and they get back their best offensive lineman in guard Trevor Downing who was injured last year. This team is loaded - and there is NFL talent on both sides of the ball. Campbell has led his team to nine victories against ranked opponents since 2017 — tied for the third-most in the nation. Iowa State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored. Iowa has won seven straight games going back to last season when they rallied from an 0-2 start. Fourteen starters are back — but they lost some critical pieces on their defense. Defensive tackle Daviyon Dixon, defensive end Chauncey Golston, and linebacker Nick Niemann all moved on to the NFL. The Hawkeyes lack elite talent so these losses hurt. Head coach Kirk Ferentz’s program is consistent because of their player development that gets the most out of their recruits — but the Hawkeyes took a big hit when he dismissed their outstanding strength and conditioning coach Chris Doyle for his history of making racist comments. Ferentz looked the other way for years — and there is a reason that Urban Meyer hired him for the same position with Jacksonville before finally relenting to the outside pressure. Iowa develops a great defense because of their physical development — it will be difficult to simply mimic his practices. Junior quarterback Spencer Petras improved as the season went on last year — but he only completed 59% of his passes while averaging 176 passing YPG during their six-game winning streak. Petras completed only 13 of 27 passes for 145 yards last week against the Indiana defense with his accuracy issues remaining a problem. Iowa State has a definitive edge at quarterback. The Hawkeyes will want to run the football with junior All-Big Ten honoree Tyler Goodson — but their offensive line is a question with three new starters including both tackles. Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 road games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: This is a huge game for Iowa State who has lost their last five rivalry games against Iowa. This group did not get the opportunity to avenge an 18-17 loss to Iowa in Iowa City two years ago. Campbell has not coached his team to a victory against the Hawkeyes in four tries. The home team has covered the point spread in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. Iowa State has the talent and motivation edge — they should put up too many points for this Iowa team to keep up. 25* CFB Non-Conference Game of the Year with the Iowa State Cyclones (350) minus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (349). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (345) plus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (346). THE SITUATION: Cal (0-1) looks to bounce back from a 22-17 upset loss to Nevada last Saturday as a 3-point favorite. TCU (1-0) comes off a 45-3 thrashing of Duquesne last week as a 42-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Cal jumped out to a 13-point lead before going away from their rushing attack that was finding success. Red Zone problems played a role as well — but coaches often find they see the biggest jump in execution from the first to the second game of the season. The Golden Bears are not always reliable favorites — but they have consistently overachieved under head coach Justin Wilcox when getting the points. Cal has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games as an underdog with twelve upset wins. They have pulled off seven upsets over that span when getting more than a touchdown. Furthermore, the Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games as a dog since 2019 with six outright wins. Wilcox has seventeen starters back from the team that finished a disappointing 1-3. They have a third-year starting quarterback in Chase Garbers. Cal has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games as an underdog. TCU took care of business against their FCS opponent last week — but they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Horned Frogs have eighteen starters back from their 6-4 campaign last year. But TCU has not been a reliable favorite when played at Amon G. Carter Stadium. The Horned Frogs are just 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 home games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Cal has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record on their home field — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 road games when getting 10.5 to 14 points. 10* CFB Cal-TCU ESPNU Special with the California Golden Bears (345) plus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (346). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Louisville Cardinals (225) plus the points versus the Mississippi Rebels (226). THE SITUATION: Louisville (0-0) returns thirteen starters from their team that finished 4-7 last season. Mississippi (0-0) has seventeen starters back from the team that completed their 5-5 campaign with a 26-20 victory over Indiana in the Outback Bowl. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Louisville overachieved in their first season under head coach Scott Satterfield — but they underachieved last year by settling with a 4-7 record. The Cardinals outgained their opponents in yardage in nine of their eleven games — but turnovers often neutralized that edge. Louisville had their offensive possessions end in a turnover 18.2% of the time, the sixth-worst mark in the FBS. With 24 turnovers, the Cardinals had a -12 net turnover margin that overwhelmed their +75 net YPG clip. Louisville appears to be moving in the right direction on the field under Satterfield. They got in seven of their fourteen spring practices last year before COVID shut things down — but a full offseason should help the coaching staff address this problem. Junior quarterback Malik Cunningham was the main culprit — he threw 12 interceptions and lost another three fumbles. A year of maturity should help. He will be playing behind the best Cardinals’ offensive line in years with four starters back and another four with starting experience including a transfer from Virginia Tech. The defense has improved under Satterfield as well — Louisville ranked 39th in the nation by holding their opponents to 369.1 total YPG. Satterfield’s teams have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in the opening two weeks of a new season. His teams have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on a neutral field going back to his time at Appalachian State. Mississippi has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games in the first month of the season — and Lane Kiffin’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of his team’s last 16 games played in the first two weeks of the season. Kiffin had an immediate impact on the offense last season in his first year with the program — but that success may have raised expectations too high for bettors this season. It is just not likely that this team will average 555.5 total YPG again — third-best in the FBS. I don’t like the circumstances regarding Kiffin dismissing his offensive line coach days after spring practice ended. And Kiffin will not be on the sidelines tonight after testing positive for COVID. I don’t think his absence hurts the offense much — but he is a great play-caller, so there will be key moments in the game when the team needs a big play where they will not have insight. The Rebels’ defense is the real concern after they allowed 38.3 PPG and 519.0 total YPG last year — ranking 117th and 126th in the FBS. The unit lacks the size and grit in their front seven after years of a recruiting decline at the position when the program imploded under head coach Hugh Freeze. Senior linebacker Jacquez Jones’ late spring decision to transfer to Kentucky does not help the situation. Kiffin’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games in expected high-scoring shootouts where the Total was set at 70 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Louisville has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against non-conference opponents — and Kiffin’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games against non-conference opponents. 10* CFB Louisville-Mississippi ESPN Special with the Louisville Cardinals (225) plus the points versus the Mississippi Rebels (226). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (208) minus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (207). THE SITUATION: Clemson (0-0) returns 14 starters from the team that finished 10-2 after a 49-28 loss to Ohio State in the College Football Playoff Semifinals. Georgia (0-0) has 13 starters back from their 8-2 campaign last year which ended with them beating Cincinnati by a 24-21 score in the Peach Bowl. This game will be played on a neutral field at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Georgia recruits like a National Championship team. In terms of core talent, the Bulldogs rosters compare with Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State in the Kirby Smart era. Yet this program cannot yet get over the hump — and that nagging insecurity will not help them in this opening heavyweight fight. Smart realized that he needed to evolve his offense — so he brought in offensive coordinator Todd Monken who was able to match his schemes with quarterback J.T. Daniels when the former USC transfer took over under center. What took so long to make that change from Stetson Bennett? The losses to Florida and Alabama? Daniels is a former 5-star recruit — but he was losing favor with the Trojans even before his knee injury that kept him out a year. He is lacking weapons for this showdown. His favorite target last year was George Pickens who caught 23 balls for 373 yards after Daniels assumed the starting QB duties. Pickens suffered a torn ACL in the spring. The Bulldogs are loaded with talent at wide receiver — but the group is young and the cohesion with Daniels is not as developed. Georgia has a great tight ends room with sophomore Darnell Washington and LSU transfer Arik Gilbert — but both players are out for this game. Ouch. The defense has elite talent — and they think they can simply reload once again despite losing six players to the NFL. But while the total defense of allowing 321.0 total YPG ranked 12th in the FBS, the more sophisticated Expected Points Allowed per Play metric drops them to 27th in the nation. A hidden flaw that may speak to defensive coordinator Dan Lanning’s schemes relates to the Red Zone performance. Georgia allowed 14 touchdowns and seven field goals in the 22 Red Zone trips their opponents made — that 95.5% scoring rate was 124th in the nation. The Bulldogs lost their top four cornerbacks, with two going to the NFL and one transferring. In theory, there is great freshman talent — and Smart is aggressive in the transfer market by bringing in former Clemson cornerback Darion Kendrick and West Virginia nickel back Tykee Smith. Are any of these players lockdown corners? The Bulldogs would have been better served with this showdown occurring later in the season. I have more faith in Clemson’s reload — six straight appearances in the playoffs will do that (with two National Championships). Sophomore quarterback D.J. Uiagalelelei is proven with two starts last season against Boston College and Notre Dame where he completed 78 of 117 passes for 914 yards and five touchdowns without an interception. He threw for 438 yards on the road at night in South Bend against a good Fighting Irish defense. And both those games were tight (including a double-overtime loss to the Irish) — so he has experience playing under pressure in tight games. Clemson missed wide receiver Justyn Ross who missed last season with an injury — but he appears ready to return to the field tonight to challenge the Bulldogs’ secondary. He is a likely future first-round pick in the NFL draft. The Tigers defense has something to prove after getting burned for 639 yards by the Buckeyes — but led by perhaps the best defensive front in the nation, this may be their most talented defense since their 2018 National Championship team.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games played on a neutral field when the Total is in the 49.5 to 56 range. Now they play at a familiar field for Clemson where they have won the ACC Championship Game the last four seasons. The Tigers have covered the point spread in all 6 games under Dabo Swinney on a neutral field with the Total in that 49.5 to 56 range. And Clemson has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 postseason games consisting of conference championship games, playoff games, and bowl games — and while this contest does not fit that template, it speaks to how Swinney gets his team prepared for big games. 20* CFB Georgia-Clemson ABC-TV Special with the Clemson Tigers (208) minus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (207). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Penn State Nittany Lions (165) plus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (166). THE SITUATION: Penn State (0-0) returns 16 starters from the team that finished 4-5 last season. Wisconsin (0-0) has 17 starters back from their team that finished 4-3 after a 42-28 win against Wake Forest in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NITTANY LIONS PLUS THE POINTS: Penn State started 0-5 last season in a snake-bitten start of bad luck involving injuries, turnovers, and COVID complications. When their star linebacker Micah Parsons opted-out of the season, the team was left without their best player. Indiana upset them at home in overtime in the opening game of the season as a 6-point dog despite being outgained by +277 net yards. Penn State had Ohio State next who they were competitive against in a 38-25 loss as a 10-point dog. The season was lost after two games — and they were flat in a 35-19 upset loss to Maryland where they were laying 27 points. They then got upset at Nebraska by a 30-23 score as a 3-point favorite despite outgaining the Cornhuskers by 203 yards. Wounded with an 0-4 record, they then hosted Iowa where they lost by a 41-21 score. But give James Franklin credit for rallying this team after this disastrous 0-5 start. They upset Michigan on the road in a battle of bruised blue bloods which began their four-game winning streak to end the season. There are definitely problems — and the lack of spring practice hampered Franklin’s hiring of Minnesota offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarocca. A lack of explosiveness on offense was one of the reasons that Franklin did not retain Ciarocca (now the head coach of West Virginia). Franklin tapped Texas offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich as his new OC. Turnovers played a big role as the Nittany Lions lost eight of their ten fumbles on offense en route to 17 turnovers. Junior quarterback Sean Clifford probably tried to do too much early as well — but after throwing eight interceptions in his first five games, he had only one interception in his last four games with five touchdown passes. The Penn State defense also held their last five opponents to just 17.3 PPG. Overall, the Nittany Lions may have allowed 27.7 PPG (with turnovers hurting the cause) — but they ranked 17th in the nation by giving up just 328.8 total YPG. They have one of the most underrated defensive coordinators in the business in Brent Pry. Nine starters return on offense including a third-year starter in Clifford. This is a team that outgained their opponents by +102 net YPG. Penn State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in September. Wisconsin was also hit hard by COVID — so perhaps that explains why they scored in single-digits in three straight games midway through the year. But don’t read too much into their 42-28 closing win against Wake Forest in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl since they got outgained by a 577 to 266 yardage margin. Sophomore quarterback Graham Mertz returned from his positive COVID test (and not getting to play Illinois again) by completing only 56.9% of his passes with four touchdown passes and five interceptions in his last six games. Perhaps it was just a nagging shoulder injury for the highly touted phenom? The running backs averaged only 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry amidst speculation that the typical stout Badgers’ offensive line has taken a step back in talent. Wisconsin started fast amidst a favorable schedule in 2019 — but they gave up 26 PPG in their final eight games before they could grab on COVID excuses last year. The data says they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Wisconsin has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against Big Ten opponents — and Penn State has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against conference opponents. While both these teams have much to prove in this game. the Nittany Lions still recruit better than the Badgers. Expect a close game where getting the points offers much value. 20* CFB Penn State-Wisconsin Fox-TV Special with the Penn State Nittany Lions (165) plus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (166). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Northwestern Wildcats (154) minus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (153). THE SITUATION: Northwestern (0-0) returns eight starters from the team that finished 7-2 last season with a 35-19 win over Auburn in the Citrus Bowl. Michigan State (0-0) has 16 starters back from their team that finished 2-5.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS MINUS THE POINTS: Once again, bettors appear to be undervaluing the program that head coach Pat Fitzgerald has built in Evanston. In his sixteenth year with the program, Fitzgerald led a Wildcats team to finish in the top 25 for the fourth time since 2015 last year after playing for the Big Ten Championship where they lost to Ohio State by a 22-10 score. Now this program is laying only a field goal to a rebuilding Michigan State team? Fitzgerald can make the argument that he has assembled a coaching staff that gets the most out of their talent in the conference (and the nation?). And this new era of the transfer portal helps a program like Northwestern that cannot hang with the blue bloods in attracting blue-chippers — but now becomes attractive for the talent who needs the spotlight with a starting assignment with a coaching staff that just sent saw two players drafted in the first round in the NFL draft. The Wildcats’ defense has always been fundamentally sound under Fitzgerald — and they were 5th in the nation last year by allowing only 15.9 PPG. This year’s defense is as athletic as any of the units in the Fitzgerald tenure — and the defensive line may be the best yet in his sixteen years. They bring back defensive end Samdup Miller who opted out last year. Safety Brandon Joseph is an All-American — and they have a breakout star in cornerback Cameron Mitchell. A Northwestern program may have been in a better position to navigate COVID-ball last year — but a full offseason can only help a program that thrives when they can coach up their players. Fitzgerald brought in former South Carolina Ryan Hilinski to compete for the starting QB job. The fact that fifth-year senior Hunter Johnson has been named the starting QB suggests to me that the veteran has earned the spot. Johnson is a former five-star recruit that transferred to the program from Clemson — and while he has yet to achieve his vast potential, he has now been under Fitzgerald’s mentorship for three years (including a pandemic). This is a team that has covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home — and they are a dominant 33-16-3 ATS in their last 52 games in conference play under Fitzgerald. I am optimistic about what Michigan State can do under second-year head coach Mel Tucker. I like the direction — but I think the betting market is mistaking long-term optimism with short-term rationality. Sparty has endured a decline in talent for years under the bloat of Mike Dantonio for years — especially on the offensive line. The recruiting war arms race in the Big Ten East with Michigan and Penn State investing furiously to try to catch up to Ohio State left Sparty far behind while Dantonio preached an outdated model while fueling all his attentions on his in-state rival. The paradigm where Michigan State played Alabama in the BCS college football playoff in 2016 has long since been transformed. It will take longer than a year for Tucker to rebuild this program. He is trying to ride transfer roulette wheel for this year — and he may have improved the program he inherited. More than 20 players left the program in the offseason but he brought in more than 20. Whoo-hoo! I mean, guys aren’t leaving starting jobs at elite programs. The Michigan State defense has declined — they allowed 35.1 PPG last year (100th FBS and the worst mark in program history) and lost the best player on all three levels. I think second-year defensive coordinator Scottie Hazelton is great who will benefit from a full year of teaching — but he can only do so much. The talent on offense may not yet fit the scheme of second year offensive coordinator Jay Johnson who brought 21st century principles with him when he came over with Tucker from Colorado. The rushing attack has ranked 122nd, 113th, and 114th in the nation in the last three seasons. Tucker brought in Temple QB Anthony Russo as a graduate transfer — but he agrees with all of us in wondering if that was an upgrade over sophomore Payton Thorne who made one start last year. Tucker has yet to name a starter as of my last deep dive — but it doesn’t matter, let him start the turnover machine from Temple. Or not. There is simply a talent deficit still between these two teams. Michigan State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road in the opening two weeks of the season. Additionally, the Spartans have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games in Big Ten play.

FINAL TAKE: The icing on the cake is that Northwestern will be motivated to avenge a 29-20 upset loss in East Lansing against Sparty as a 13.5-point favorite. The Wildcats fell behind by a 17-0 score before scoring 20 unanswered points — but turnovers in the fourth quarter led to their 9-point loss. The grind of the Big Ten — where emotions at home can play a big role. Northwestern has that emotional edge this time around — something that Fitzgerald has been pounding into his team since August practices started. 25* CFB Friday ESPN Game of the Month with the Northwestern Wildcats (154) minus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (153). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (137) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (138). THE SITUATION: Boise State (0-0) returns 17 starters from the team that finished 5-2 after a 34-20 loss to San Jose State in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. Central Florida (0-0) has 17 starters back from their team that ended the season with a 6-4 record after a 49-23 loss to BYU in the Boca Raton Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: Boise State is under new management after Bryan Harsin took the head coaching job at Boise State. The Broncos hired a former player and defensive coordinator in Andy Avalos to rework their defense that allowed 27.1 PPG last season. Those were the most points that Boise State surrendered since 1998. Avalos was previously the defensive coordinator at Oregon. He should improve a defense that allowed at least 30 points in four of their seven games last year. It was a lost season for the Broncos that started on the wrong foot when COVID led to them canceling their entire spring practice schedule. The team was hit hard by COVID and injuries during the regular season with both their highly-touted quarterbacks, Hank Bachmeier and Jack Sears, missing time. Sears, a former USC transfer, only played one game. Bachmeier started four games last season including the end of the season despite not being 100%. He has been tabbed the starter for this game. He displayed a big upside in his freshman season as one of the biggest recruits in the history of the program by averaging 8.6 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt. He has two returning starters at wide receiver in seniors Khalil Shakir and C.T. Thomas who have combined for 248 receptions and 24 touchdown catches in their career. The Boise State offense has a new offensive coordinator in Tim Plough who brings his Air Raid attack to Boise from UC-Davis. In his time as the Aggies' offensive coordinator, they averaged just 23 seconds between plays — so except a very fast pace. The Broncos should carve up a suspect Knights pass defense that was 110th in the nation last year by allowing 8.5 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt. Central Florida’s best defensive back last season was free safety Richie Grant who was drafted by the Atlanta Falcons. The Knights will miss the three-time All-Conference player. Boise State opted out from playing in a bowl game — so this nationally televised game is important for them to re-establish themselves on the national stage. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the first half of the season. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 range. Central Florida also has a new coach in Gus Malzahn — the guy that Boise State’s previous coach is replacing at Auburn. He replaces Josh Heupel who took the Tennessee head coaching job. While the Knights bring back 17 starters, they lost talent on both sides of the ball to the NFL — and this is not a program that simply reloads. UCF lost their top two running backs in Greg McRae and Otis Anderson and their leading receiver in Marlon Williams who had five 100-yards receiving games last year. Expectations are high for the Knights with junior Dillon Gabriel under center — but he is adjusted to the new Malzahn system on offense. It is the Knights’ defense that will likely be their downfall in this game. They allowed their opponents to average +86 YPG above their season average last year — 123rd in the nation. They allowed at least 30 points six times. UCF benefited from a +12 net turnover margin last year that made up for their defense that allowed 491.8 total YPG (123rd in the FBS). The Knights cannot rely on having the fifth-best net turnover margin once again this season. This shapes up to be a shootout — but that usually does not bode well for this football team. Central Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games with the Total set at 63 or higher — and they failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home with the Total at 63 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Boise State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 road games when an underdog getting up to 7 points. Central Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home when favored. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Game of the Month with the Boise State Broncos (137) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (138). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Minnesota Golden Gophers (146) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (145). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (0-0) returns 20 starters from a team that finished 3-4 last season. Ohio State (0-0) has 11 starters back from their group that lost to Alabama in the National Championship Game by a 52-24 score.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN GOPHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Expectations have been raised for this program under head coach P.J. Fleck after their 11-2 campaign in 2019 that concluded a victory against Auburn in the Outback Bowl. The team was likely going to take a step back last year given the loss of five of their top six tacklers on defense and offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca to Penn State. But this program was given no favors when the pandemic hit. The team kept fighting and ended the season playing good football — they took Wisconsin to overtime in their last game before losing by a 20-17 score. Now with a full offseason again and more time to learn second-year offensive coordinator Mike Sanford’s schemes, Minnesota should be very confident tonight as they begin the fifth season under Fleck. His teams at Minnesota and Western Michigan have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games in September. He has a senior quarterback in Tanner Morgan who is a four-year starter. They have the reigning Big Ten Running Back of the Year in Mohamad Ibrahim. They have three returning starters at wide receiver in a unit blessed with speed — and senior Chris Autman-Bell is a game-time decision from the latest reports after he suffered a leg injury in camp last month. The Gophers have four starters back on an offensive line that is big, deep, and experienced — and they get right tackle Daniel Faalele and his 6’9, 400-lb frame after he opted out last season. The defense played better in the second half of the season — they held their last five opponents to just 23.4 PPG. Ten starters return — and they brought in one of the most impactful grad transfers in defensive tackle Nyles Pinckney who was the captain of the Clemson defense. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against Big Ten opponents. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games as an underdog. Ohio State usually does not schedule as strong as an opponent as this in their opening game. They especially do not schedule road games in conference play as their opening game. While the Buckeyes are loaded with talent, they have ten new starters including redshirt freshman C.J. Stroud. Remember, Ohio State did not play in front of hostile crowds against Big Ten foes last year given conference restrictions on attendance. They lost ten players who were drafted into the NFL. With a showdown with Oregon next week, the Buckeyes just need to survive this game. Ohio State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The weather influenced my decision to sign off on this play today — there is a 50% chance for rain in Minneapolis tonight at Huntington Bank Stadium. Rain creates chaos — and I don’t like road favorites amidst chaos playing at night in a hostile environment. I especially do not like chaos with a freshman quarterback making his first career start under expectations that he is supposed to lead his team to a national championship. As it is, the Buckeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 trips to Minneapolis to play the Golden Gophers. 10* CFB Ohio State-Minnesota Fox-TV Special with the Minnesota Golden Gophers (146) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (145). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (301) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (302). THE SITUATION: Hawai’i (0-0) returns 18 starters from the team that finished 5-4 last year after a 28-14 win against Houston in the New Mexico Bowl. UCLA (0-0) comes off a 3-4 campaign in the third year under head coach Chip Kelly.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAINBOW WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: There seems to be more excitement about what the Bruins may finally accomplish in the fourth year under Kelly nationally than there is in Los Angeles where the Rose Bowl will not offer a strong home-field edge. The biggest problem with this UCLA team starts with Kelly’s stubbornness to continue to employ his buddy Jerry Azzinaro as his defensive coordinator. Entering last season, Azzinaro had overseen six straight college defenses that ranked 113th, 102nd, 100th, 89th, 105th, and 110th in total defense. Some might say that the Azzinaro-way finally started to demonstrate itself last year when the Bruins “improved to 69th in the nation by holding their opponents to 409.9 total YPG. Unfortunately, that number may have more to do with playing opponents slow to get up to speed on offense in a pandemic. UCLA allows 482 YPG in their final three games against Arizona State, USC, and Stanford — not exactly an endorsement of coaching improvements out of one’s players. The UCLA defense also lost their best player in defensive end Osa Odighizuwa who got drafted by Dallas. Kelly’s recruiting classes have catered amidst losing seasons — and he has lost talent from the loosened transfer rules. Dorian Thompson-Robinson is the returning starter at quarterback — but he has failed to meet the expectations of operating the Chip Kelly dual-threat offense. Pro Football Focus graded four of his five starts last year below 57.0 (which is bad). Injuries have held him back — but when he has been the starter in his career, the Bruins’ pass attack ranks second-to-last in the Pac-12 on efficiency. Kelly’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games in the opening two weeks of the season. UCLA has not covered the point spread in 5 of their 6 non-conference games with Kelly as their head coach. And in Kelly’s last 22 home games as a head coach with his team playing at home with the Total set at 63 or higher, his teams have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of those games. Hawai’i deployed a new up-tempo attack against Houston in their bowl game to success that will carry over into this season. Say what you want about head coach Todd Graham after his tenure at Arizona State — but the dude can coach up football teams as he owns a 100-65 overall record with 11 bowl appearances in his 12 seasons coaching at Rice, Tulsa, and Pittsburgh before the Sun Devils and Rainbow Warriors. Graham has tightened the ship by making things a family affair with him placing his eldest son, Bo, as offensive coordinator while he takes over the defensive coordinating duties. Graham brought in six Division-I transfers to a defense that returns 11 starters. The defense will be better. The offense brings back fourth-year QB Chevan Cordeiro who threw for over 2000 yards and ran for more than 480 yards in nine games. Hawai’i has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games in the first two weeks of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games played in August. The Rainbow Warriors have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in non-conference play — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games with the Total set at 63 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Graham’s teams have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points. UCLA has a big game with LSU on deck, which may compel Kelly to call off the dogs if they are winning easily — so a back door cover is alive in this one. 10* CFB Saturday Daily Discounted Deal with the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (301) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Nebraska Cornhuskers (299) minus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (300). THE SITUATION: Nebraska (0-0) returns 17 starters from the team that settled for a 3-5 record in a COVID-shortened season last year. Illinois (0-0) begins the Bret Bielema head coaching era after Lovie Smith was sacked before the final game of the 2020 season where they finished 2-6.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CORNHUSKERS MINUS THE POINTS: If fourth-year head coach Scott Frost was not on the hot seat after posting a 12-20 record in his first three seasons at his alma mater in Lincoln, the NCAA violations issued against the football program under his watch certainly raised the stakes this season for Frost with another album as athletic director in Trev Alberts who did not hire him. After four straight losing seasons, Frost must deliver — and the schedule gets tougher in the second half of the season with dates Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Iowa. This is a must-win situation for the Cornhuskers. Frost has problems — players are transferring and his recruitment has waned. But 17 starters return from a group that outgained their opponents last season by +5 net Yards-Per-Game. Nebraska was just 1-4 in close games decided by one possession. Turning the ball over in 18.95% of their possessions on offense was a killer. Yet there is stability on offense under senior quarterback Adrian Martinez. While the dual-threat QB is not likely to meet the expectations surrounding his early hype, he is a veteran who completed 71.5% of his passes last season while running for another 521 yards with his 5.7 Yards-Per-Carry average. With a wide receiving corps that is the most talented in the Frost era, this should be a better offensive team. With USC transfer Markese Stepp and a handful of talented freshmen at running back, someone should step up. The defense has 90% of their production return led by five “super seniors” playing in their sixth season. The Cornhuskers have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. Scott Frost’s teams at Nebraska and Central Florida have covered the point spread in 5 of their 8 road games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. Lovie Smith did not leave the cupboard bare for Bielema at Illinois — in fact, I think Smith was moving this program in the right direction before COVID put a monkey wrench in many coaches' plans last season (especially the ones who are effective teachers who rely on practices). In comes Bielema who bolted from his success at Wisconsin for the money in the SEC where he failed to elevate the Arkansas program. He returns to Big Ten country where he is moving from a spread offense to probably more of a power running game. The defense moves from a 4-3 to a 3-4 — and these system changes on both sides of the ball can see transition problems in these early games. As it is, Bielema’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games in the opening two weeks of the season. His quarterback is sixth-year senior Brandon Peters who transferred from Michigan a few years ago when the writing was on the wall that he would not get the starting job after a bad bowl game sealed his fate. The inconsistent QB has averaged only 144.6 passing YPG with the Illini. He led an offense last year that ranked 119th in the FBS in Expected Points Added per Pass Attempt — and the returning wide receiving corps lacks a clear number one option. The Illini defense has finished 12th or worse in total yardage in four of the last five seasons under a former NFL head coach whose defensive acumen propelled the Chicago Bears to reach the Super Bowl with a defense that carried Rex Grossman at QB. Defensive coordinator Ryan Walters, previously the coordinator of the Missouri defense the last six seasons, is not an upgrade. Bielema is in a rebuild — so he has time. His teams have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 home games when an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Illinois has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home where they do not retain a great home edge — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 37 home games as a dog getting up to 7 points. The Illini have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in August.

FINAL TAKE: If the stakes were not high enough for Nebraska, they will have revenge on their mind after getting upset by Illinois last year at home by a 41-23 score as a 16-point underdog on November 21st. Good bulletin board material for Frost in a game Bielema had no connection with. 25* CFB Television Game of the Month is with the Nebraska Cornhuskers (299) minus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (300). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (500) minus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (499) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Alabama (12-0) defeated Notre Dame by a 31-14 score on New Year’s Day in the Rose Bowl College Football Semifinals as an 18.5-point favorite. Ohio State (7-0) upset Clemson as a 7-point favorite later that night in the Sugar Bowl to earn the right to play for the National Championship. This game will be played on a neutral field at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: We had the Buckeyes in their revenge opportunity defeat a Tigers team that beat them in last year’s Semifinals by a 29-23 score. I loved Ohio State in that situation as an underdog — but I hate this spot for them now. Head coach Ryan Day and his team just triumphed against their proverbial white whale — but the job is not done. I worry about a big emotional letdown for this team. As it is, the Buckeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by at least 20 points. The continued COVID situation for Ohio State adds a very troubling complication for this team. Remember, it was the surprise announcement of a slew of Buckeyes’ players dealing with COVID that contributed to their sluggish effort in the Big Ten Championship Game against Northwestern. Fields struggled without his top weapons in that game — and he may be slowed in this game with the ribs injury he suffered against Clemson. If he is not 100%, the Buckeyes are in trouble. I was unwilling to make a call on the Total for this game without knowing if there is a position group that will not be available to play in this game — if an offensive position group is out, then that helps the Under; if a defensive position group is out, then it helps the Over. Either way, if Ohio State goes into this game undermanned, it could be devastating. Even if everyone takes the field on Monday, the practice and preparation for this team have been less than ideal. Alabama will be primed and ready for this game. Head coach Nick Saban’s team comes into this contest having not covered the point spread in their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in their last game. Additionally, the Tide have covered the point spread in 44 of their last 67 games after not covering the point spread in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in a dominant 23 of their last 28 games after winning but not covering the point spread in their last two games. This Alabama team is simply overwhelming on offense — they are scoring 48.2 PPG while averaging 535.6 total YPG. And the Buckeyes are vulnerable in their passing game — especially on the edges with what is still a young defensive backfield with only seven games under their belts this season. Ohio State is 116th in the nation by allowing 281.1 passing YPG — and the QB Mac Jones leads a quick-strike attack that is fifth in the nation by averaging 349.3 passing YPG. The rich might get richer as well with the possibility that wide receiver Jaylen Waddle may be able to return to action in this game after being injured for months. Alabama has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games on a neutral field favored by 7.5 to 14 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Buckeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams from the SEC. Alabama has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against Big Ten foes. 25* CFB National Championship *A-List* Special with the Alabama Crimson Tide (500) minus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (499). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas A&M Aggies (498) minus the points versus North Carolina Tar Heels (497) in the Orange Bowl. THE SITUATION: Texas A&M (8-1) enters the postseason coming off a 34-13 win at Tennessee as a 13.5-point favorite on December 19th. North Carolina (8-3) comes off a 62-26 upset win at Miami (FL) as a 3-point underdog on December 12th. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES MINUS THE POINTS: Texas A&M has a chip on their shoulder for this game after not getting what they considered to be the “second” automatic bid into the College Football Playoff semifinals after getting bypassed by Notre Dame and an Ohio State team that “only” played six games (after seeing their non-conference schedule consisting of Bowling Green and Buffalo cut due to COVID). Will the Aggies come into this game with something to prove — or will they be complacent? The history of Jimbo Fisher teams is to take bowl games seriously. Fisher’s teams have won seven of their nine bowl games while covering the point spread in 6 of these 9 bowl games. And Fisher is regime building in College Station with a 25-10 record in his first three seasons there including two bowl wins after they crushed NC State in the Gator Bowl last year by a 55-13 score. This is a prestigious New Year’s Six bowl game in the cushy Saturday night prime-time slot with plenty of eyeballs from recruits to playoff committee members to AP voters that will make their preseason rankings which sets the table to rig the game for Power Five conference teams for playoff considerations — and the rich Texas A&M alumni are always watching with interest. So, yeah, I think Fisher has had his whip out for his team in practice to prepare for this game. The Aggies have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win by at least 20 points. And while they gained 497 yards against the Volunteers, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after gaining at least 475 yards in their last game. Senior Kellen Mond completed 26 of 32 passes for 281 yards in the win — and Texas A&M has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Aggies also have an outstanding defense that ranks 11th in the nation by allowing 316.6 YPG. North Carolina may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset victory on the road by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after pulling off an upset win on the road by at least three touchdowns. Additionally, the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a win against a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win over an ACC opponent. UNC exploded for 778 yards against the Hurricanes while outgaining them by +464 net yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +175 net yards. Head coach Mack Brown is dealing with several opt-outs for this game with three of his top skill players on offense in wide receiver Dyami Brown and running backs Michael Carter and Javonte Williams and his best defensive player in linebacker Chazz Surratt bypassing this game. Brown has young but untested talent filling their shoes. The Tar Heels rushed for a whopping 554 yards against Miami — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games after rushing for at least 275 yards in their last game. Now they face a stout Aggies run defense that holds opposing rushers to just 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry — while ranking second in the nation by allowing only 92.2 rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Texas A&M has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. They also have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games against teams outside the SEC. 25* CFB Saturday Night ABC-TV Game of the Year with the Texas A&M Aggies (498) minus the points versus North Carolina Tar Heels (497). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (496) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (495) in the Fiesta Bowl. THE SITUATION: Iowa State (8-3) saw their five-game winning streak snapped in the Big 12 Championship Game with their 27-21 loss to Oklahoma as a 5-point underdog on December 18th. Oregon (4-2) ended their two-game losing streak in the Pac-12 Championship Game with their 31-24 upset win against USC on December 18th as a 3-point underdog. This game will be played on a neutral field at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa State should bounce-back with a strong effort for head coach Matt Campbell. Iowa State has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 6 points or less. The Cyclones have also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after winning at least three of their last four games. Quarterback Brock Purdy completed 27 of 40 passes for 322 yards against a quality Oklahoma defense but his three interceptions did the Cyclones in — including one in the waning moments of the game when Iowa State was driving for the potential winning score. Iowa State outgained Oklahoma by +43 net yards in the Sooners’ opportunity to avenge their earlier loss to them. The Cyclones have held their last two opponents to just 120 and 54 rushing yards — and they have then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games are not allowing their last two opponents to rush for at least 125 yards. Oregon was did not earn the right to play in the Pac-12 Championship Game but took full advantage of their opportunity after Washington had to pull out of that game because of COVID. But the Ducks needed a +2 net turnover margin in that game overcome the Trojans outgaining them by 115 net yards. Oregon was outgained by -27.3 net YPG in their last three games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a point spread win. The Ducks did surrender 320 passing yards to USC which is not an encouraging sign now when facing the gunslinger Purdy. Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after allowing at least 280 yards in their last game. QB Tyler Shough struggled in the game as well as he completed only 8 of 15 passes for 91 yards.

FINAL TAKE: The Ducks are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games against non-conference opponents — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games played on a neutral field with a total set at 56.5 to 63. Iowa State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored. 10* CFB Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Iowa State Cyclones (496) minus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (495). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Mississippi Rebels (493) plus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (494) in the Outback Bowl. THE SITUATION: Mississippi (4-5) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on December 19th with their 53-48 upset loss at LSU as a 1-point favorite. Indiana (6-1) has won their last two games with their 14-6 upset victory at Wisconsin on December 5th as a 12-point underdog on December 5th. This game will be played at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REBELS PLUS THE POINTS: Ole Miss surrendered 593 yards against the Tigers in what has been a horror show of a season for them on defense. But they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. The Rebels committed six turnovers in that game with quarterback Matt Corral throwing five interceptions in the loss. He should clean that up a bit in this bowl game. Ole Miss has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games on the road after a game where they turned the ball over at least four times — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games on the road after suffering a -2 or worse net turnover margin. Corral will be without his top two targets in wide receiver Elijah Moore and tight end Kenny Yeboah who have opted out for the NFL draft. But those two did not play against LSU — and they still gained 558 total yards with 251 of those yards in the air. Corral needs to make better decisions — and head coach Lane Kiffin’s offensive schemes should generate plenty of yardage no matter who is out there. The Rebels rushed for 307 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after rushing for at least 275 yards in their last game. They may be without running back Jerron Early who is questionable with an injury. Ole Miss has covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning record. Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after pulling off an upset win as a double-digit dog. The Hoosiers won that game despite being outgained by -125 net yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 6 points in their last game. Indiana defeated Maryland in their previous game by a 27-11 score — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. This team did most of their good work this season with the dynamic Michael Penix, Jr. but he is out the season with an ankle injury. The offense is simply not the same with Jack Tuttle under center. The Hoosiers gained only 217 yards against Badgers — and they have thrown for only 130 and 115 yards in their two games since Tuttle inherited the quarterbacking gig. Indiana is 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams will be motivated since the Hoosiers have not won a bowl game since 1991 while the Rebels have not won a bowl game since 2016. But Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral field — and Ole Miss is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games on a neutral field. The Rebels are also 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 bowl games. Look for a close game with Ole Miss’ offense keeping them in this game. 25* CFB ABC-TV Game of the Year with the Mississippi Rebels (493) plus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (494). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kentucky Wildcats (491) minus the point(s) versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (492) in the Gator Bowl. THE SITUATION: Kentucky (4-6) looks to close out their season after a 41-18 win against South Carolina as an 11.5-point favorite on December 5th. NC State (8-3) has won four games in a row with their 23-13 win against Georgia Tech as a 7-point favorite on December 5th. The Gator Bowl is played at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS MINUS THE POINTS: Kentucky looks pretty unappealing to bettors with their 4-6 record — but they are battle-tested from their SEC schedule. Head coach Mark Stoops’ team should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a victory by at least 20 points. The Wildcats did get their offense cranking as they generated 492 yards against the Gamecocks. Kentucky is tough when they can match some scoring punch with their consistent quality defense. The Wildcats have covered the  point spread in 6 straight games after gaining at least 475 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Kentucky’s spread option attack was good for 291 rushing yards — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. They will have an interim offensive coordinator for this game after Stoopes sacked their current OC for the quarterbacks coach for the Los Angeles Rams. They should have some wrinkles for this game. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing for more than 20 points in their last game. They are also 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games against teams with a winning record. NC State has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a win at home against a conference rival. The Wolfpack have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread victory. And they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Despite their 8-3 record, NC State is being outgained by -26.7 net YPG — and they were outgained by -58.2 net YPG in their five games away from home.

FINAL TAKE: The Wolfpack have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral field as a dog. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the ACC. Kentucky has covered the point spread in 7 straight games against teams outside the SEC — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as a favorite. 10* CFB Gator Bowl ESPN Special with the Kentucky Wildcats (491) minus the point(s) versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (492). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (333) plus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (334) in the Sugar Bowl College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (6-0) won the Big Ten Championship Game with their 22-10 win over Northwestern as a 16.5-point favorite on December 19th. Clemson (10-1) won the ACC Championship Game with their 34-10 win against Notre Dame on December 19th. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES PLUS THE POINTS: It cannot be understated how significant a negative impact it was for Ohio State to have 22 players out in the Big Ten Championship Game — including their best wide receiver Chris Olave and one of their best defensive players in linebacker Baron Browning. Now, more than ever, I am embracing patience and due diligence before releasing plays after getting burned that morning (and we still should have covered that game with the Buckeyes’ final offensive drive stopping at the 1-yard line as time expired). A few important thoughts guided my decision this morning. The Buckeyes declared wide receiver Chris Olave as available to play this morning (along with their other players including Browning). Many of the 22 players impacted by COVID did not take part in full practice -- but that is not all that uncommon during the season (although not ideal). Now there is a narrative developing that Clemson has a situational advantage for this game having played in five more games. Maybe — although I have never heard the same argument made in college basketball (e.g. Duke has played in five more games than North Carolina — edge Blue Devils!). I just think this intangible is being significantly overplayed. Even though Ohio State has played six fewer games, they have been practicing the entire time! I mean, Ryan Day was pulling two-a-days in August even when the Big Ten canceled their darn season. And it is not as if Ohio State has been practicing against the local Columbus high school team in place of getting those five extra games against The Citadel and Syracuse that Clemson enjoyed. They were practicing and being coached-up playing against each other. Yes, statistically-speaking, elite teams improve in their efficiency numbers as the season moves forward — but not all of that improvement is contained to their game-day experiences. And, by-the-way, if we are going to become laptop fundamentalists on this point (despite the lack of data distinguishing between more practice time experience versus more practice and game time experience, then I would like to gently suggest that those same laptops give the edge to Opponent Adjusted Efficiency to the Buckeyes rather than the Tigers (with Pitt and Boston College and Syracuse and the Citadel). Furthermore, won't the five fewer games played now make this Buckeyes’ team relatively fresher? I remember all the darn Hot Takes four months ago that the potential postponement of the fall season until the spring would be devastating to the “student-athletes” who did not get a full offseason to recover before the fall because the regular season is so grueling. These are just bullshit arguments. What edge Clemson has in being a bit more battle-tested is likely mitigated with Ohio State being a little fresher. The Buckeyes have been motivated by revenge for this potential rematch for over a calendar year — with QB Josh Fields particularly anxious to redeem himself from that late interception in their 29-23 loss in the College Football Semifinals. Clemson has been mediocre at running the football as they average just 163.8 rushing YPG (68th in the nation) with little explosiveness as they had only three rushes for more than 40 yards.

FINAL TAKE: The laptops think this is closer to a coin flip game — and I agree. It not often that the Buckeyes are getting around a touchdown — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games as an underdog when getting 3.5 to 7 points. They have also covered the point spread in their last 4 games played in January. 25* CFB Game of the Year with the Ohio State Buckeyes (333) plus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (334). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (331) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (332) in the Rose Bowl in the College Playoff Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (10-1) looks to bounce back from their 34-10 loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game as an 11.5-point underdog on December 19th. Alabama (11-0) won the SEC Championship on December 19th with their 52-46 win over Florida as a 16.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING IRISH PLUS THE POINTS: Notre Dame will not be intimidated playing Alabama after two showdowns with a Clemson team that is as talented as the Crimson Tide. The Fighting Irish should come out swinging in this game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Notre Dame has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. They also have covered the point spread in 9 straight games with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. Additionally, the Irish have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral field. Alabama has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played in January. The Crimson Tide has scored at least 42 points in five straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 42 points in four straight games. Bama has been fortunate in the turnover battle having at least a +1 net turnover margin in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning the turnover battle in two straight games. They will be without starting center Landon Dickerson who suffered a season-ending injury against Florida — and he was the glue of that elite offensive line who called the line formations. Tide quarterback Mac Jones has been vulnerable when facing pressure — and the Irish rank 8th in the nation in pressure rate while also ranking 32nd in sack rate. Both Florida and OIe Miss proved that good offenses can move the ball against their defense: the Gators generated 462 yards of offense (with their 46 points) while the Rebels gained a whopping 647 yards against them for 48 points. The other nine teams Alabama played this season combined to average only 13.3 PPG along with just 4.5 Yards-Per-Play. The Tide’s defensive numbers appear inflated by a weak strength of schedule.

FINAL TAKE: Ultimately, the Irish appear undervalued in this spot against all might Alabama that the public loves to support. The laptops project this to be closer to a two-touchdown spread — so the value is on Notre Dame. Considering that there is a decent chance of some backdoor cover action even if Bama rolls since Nick Saban will want to conserve energy while Ian Book will still be airing it out, I expect the Irish to stay within the inflated number. 10* CFB Rose Bowl ESPN Special with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (331) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (332). Best of luck for us — Frank.