I very rarely dip into the FCS level for my selections, but this one stood out to me. VMI is 0-4 on the season, but their spread offense is starting to take flight. The Keydets put up 50 in a 52-50 loss at Western Carolina last week. This came after they scored 24 at home against East Tennessee State. The problem for them is that their defense has been a major issue allowing 52, 27, 59 and 66 already this season. In comes Mercer who has had some mixed bag results themselves. The Bears beat Jacksonville 45-3 and Samford 30-24 on the road. They also lost 38-31 to the Citadel and 66-14 to Memphis. I think this one is a bit of a shootout. Mercer has been vulnerable to the pass as evidenced by the Memphis and Samford road games. Jacksonville and the Citadel want to run it so the numbers are skewed a bit there.

The UConn Huskies are allowing 54.5 points per game and 664 yards per contest as well. It's a shame because their offense is semi-competent with David Pindell under center. This is a Huskies team that allowed 49 points at home to Rhode Island who is from the FCS level. The offense would be putting up more points if they didn't have a turnover issue. The team has coughed it up 10 times in four contests. The Bearcats defense has been fantastic, but hasn't really been stressed this season. They did give up 30 points to Ohio last time out, but were beaten more on the ground then through the air. The offense has the opportunity to break out having scored 97 points the last two weeks. My worry is that they won't do as well on the road as they would on home. This one has the potential to be a shootout with both teams contributing a ton. I think this one is an over.

App St is rolling offensively putting up almost 52 points and 530 yards of offense. They've also had a great defense that has held teams to under 300 yards of offense. The Mountaineers lost by 7 at Penn State, but also beat Charlotte and Gardner Webb by healthy margins. The team is able to run the ball well and pass it as well. South Alabama's offense has been good lately with 76 points the last two weeks against Texas State and Memphis. These two have gone over in seven of seven possible games between the two of them. The Jaguars defense will probably struggle, but I think they'll get some points. This one should be a shootout on Saturday. 

Somebody has to win this one as both teams have seen some low points already this season. Florida State lost their opener to Virginia Tech before nearly falling to Samford at home. The Seminoles followed that up with a horrible effort at Syracuse before bouncing back against NIU at home. It's the inconsistencies that have driven their fanbase nuts. The defense is putting up fantastic numbers, but they've had to be on the field too long with the offense struggling to get going. The offensive line can't block anyone and Deondre Francois is getting skittish in the pocket. Louisville looked pretty feeble last week against the Hoos. They also got crushed by Alabama in week one with the victories coming after against Indiana State and Western Kentucky. To me, there's only one way to go in this one and it's taking the under. FSU has gone under in 12 of their last 18 ACC contests and 15 of their last 29 overall. I think we could see this one being a 21-17 affair as I don't have faith in either offense. 

I know I'm buying the Huskers at their lowest point and Purdue at their highest, but I'm not convinced everything is fixed in Purdue-land. They beat up on Boston College last week as part of a home stretch of four straight. The team lost to Northwestern, EMU and Missouri beforehand as the defense struggled. Nebraska's offense has not performed too well since week one when they put up over 550 yards on the Buffaloes in a loss. Adrian Martinez is back under center and presumably healthier so he should perform better. The Huskers didn't show up at Michigan, but the Wolverines were in a good spot. Nebraska has been a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points just six times since 1992 winning two of those games. Playing a hunch here and think that they get their first win here.

The Monarchs are coming off the biggest win in program history. ODU looked great against Virginia Tech beating the Hokies 49-35. They moved the ball with relative ease and made just enough stops to get the win. Now they hit the road to take on East Carolina who is 1-2 on the season. They beat UNC 41-19 at home, but lost to North Carolina A&T and South Florida. Last week, they fell to USF in a game that saw the defense play pretty well and the offense show some good balance. I completely understand that we may get an unfocused ODU team, but ECU isn't that great themselves. They are 8-19 against the spread the last three seasons and have won just six of their last 15 at home outright. Even with a lack of focus, I'll take ODU plus a touchdown in this one.

NC State is 3-0 on the season and is facing their first power five school UVA. The Wolfpack have wins over JMU, Georgia State and Marshall. They've scored 102 points while allowing just 40. Ryan Finley has an array of weapons and has been on fire so far this season so he's someone to watch out for. The defense has played well so far but could be stressed by UVA. The Cavaliers are 3-1 with wins over Richmond, Ohio and Louisville. They lost a tough one at Indiana. Bryce Perkins has been very good in getting the ball to his weapons Olamide Zaccheaus, Joe Reed and Hasise Dubois. The defense has been good too, but they lost a few pieces which could make things difficult. Richard Burney, Jordan Mack and Malcolm Cook are all most likely not going to play. I think this one will see plenty of points. 

Houston may put this number up themselves in this one. There's no real lookahead factor at all. They have tallied no fewer then 45 points and 551 yards in any game. The defense did give up some points to Rice as well and the Owls offense isn't great. I think we could get 10 from Texas Southern and that may be all we need. 

Oklahoma's offense has been rolling this season even with the injury to Rodney Anderson. The Sooners have scored 149 points in three weeks and will continue conference play next week hosting Baylor. The defense has played pretty well but they allowed 14 to FAU, 21 to UCLA and 27 to Iowa State. Army's triple option has worked so far, but has also shown that the pass is a threat. They've completed 18 passes this season keeping teams honest. I don't know how the Black Knights slow down Oklahoma in this one. Their defense showed up against Hawaii, but this is a whole new challenge. I don't see how OU doesn't score 50 which means I don't need a ton from the road team.

Kentucky is 3-0 and has another chance to add to their resume on Saturday. The Wildcats have wins over Central Michigan and Murray State at home and Florida on the road. The common thread is a really good ground game and a defense that has limited their opponents through the air and on the ground. Benny Snell is one of the best running backs in the country and Terry Wilson has been a solid signal caller. MIssissippi State already has a win at Kansas State and has beaten Stephen F Austin and ULL. Nick Fitzgerald has been really good while the defense has done good work as well. My question is that they really havent been tested yet as K-State's offense isn't that great. The Wildcats have covered in 10 of their last 16 games as an underdog. I think the home team is a live dog.

All the talk will be about Troy in this one, but Louisiana Monroe has plenty of talent to bring. The Warhawks have wins over SE Louisiana and Southern Miss to go with a 38 point loss at Texas A&M. This is their only home game over a six week stretch so you know they'll be ready. Troy is coming off a 5 point win at Nebraska and has played well since getting blitzed by Boise in week one. The offense has struggled with passing the ball and has had six turnovers, but the defense has stepped up. The Warhawks have the talent to punch Troy in the mouth especially if the Trojans aren't focused. I'm playing a hunch, but I think the home team is worth a look. 

Liberty picked up an unexpected bye week because of Hurricane Florence. They are 1-1 on the season with a 52-10 win over Old Dominion and a 38-14 loss at Army. The Flames offense has worked this season and is led by Buckshot Calvert who is pretty good. They struggled with momentum the week after a great debut against the Monarchs. They've had plenty of time to prepare for this one. North Texas is coming off a dominating effort at Arkansas 44-17. This week it's been all about the Mean Green getting publicity and it's well deserved. That's also going to pump up the Liberty fans to get this 3-0 team in their place. UNT's other wins were against SMU and Incarnate Word so those were meh. Liberty is 11-1 ATS as an underdog since 1992. I just think they have the talent to push the Mean Green who may not be as focused for this one. 

BYU is coming off a great effort in Wisconsin and has a road trip to Washington coming up next week. Sandwiched in between is a matchup with McNeese State who is one of the better FCS teams in the country. They have a ton of speed and won't be intimidated by the tough environment. The team lost at ULL 30-22 in week one and has won three straight since then. With such a low total and a potentially unfocused BYU, I like the road team to keep it within three touchdowns.

A pair of solid to middling SEC teams play in Nashville on Saturday. The Commodores are 2-1 with wins over MTSU and Nevada at home and a 22-17 loss to Notre Dame. Vandy's offense ain't that great outside of Shurmur the quarterback. They lack the true run threat they had with Ralph Webb. South Carolina's defense did well against Coastal Carolina, but struggled with Georgia. Their offense has been a mixed bag, but may struggle with Vandy's D. The Commodores have held their opponents to just 39 points overall. MTSU, Nevada and Notre Dame have pretty good offenses and they were all stymied. The Gamecocks have gone under in 12 of their last 17 SEC games. Give me the under there. 

The two teams in this game have just one win between themselves. The Cardinals won their first game 42-6 over Central Connecticut State. They lost at Notre Dame by eight and by 28 at Indiana. The offense has shown a lot of potential especially since the likes of James Gilbert and RIley Neal are healthy. The defense has had it's issues slowing down the opposition although it did force three turnovers against the Fighting Irish. Western Kentucky has losses to Louisville and Wisconsin on the road as well as one at home to Maine. This is their third road tilt in four weeks. The offense lost Mike White and has not been the same as good as they were last year. WKU allowed over 200 yards rushing to the two FBS opponents. They beat the Cardinals at home last year 33-21, but that was also with White under center. I think the team out of the MAC is worth a look. 

CSU has played four games already this year and we're still waiting to see some semblance of defense. They've allowed 48 to Florida, 45 to Colorado, 43 to Hawaii and 27 to Arkansas in a win. The good thing is that the offense has shown it can move the ball a bit when it needs to. Illinois State is 2-0 and coming off a bye week. They beat St. Xavier 46-0 and Eastern Illinois 48-10. Their defense isn't as good as it's played, but the offense is spectacular with a quarterback that has FBS roots. I think this game could be a last team with the ball situation. Give me the over. 

Akron is off to a 2-0 start after beating Northwestern 39-34 last time out in Evanston. The Zips offense has hummed in both games while the defense did just enough to hold off the Wildcats. Northwestern threw for over 400 yards, but were done in by three turnovers. Coach Bowden has done good things with this program but it's a tough ask for them to play great in their second straight power five road game. Iowa State is looking for their first win and looking for running back David Montgomery to break out. The team has struggled to get much going on the ground. They are coming off a 37-27 loss at home to Oklahoma. Their defense played well in Iowa, but had issues with the Sooners last week. Zeb Noland has some talent around him and I think we see a good offensive effort. Last year ISU won 41-14 at Akron in a game that saw them move up and down the field with ease. This is a lower total so I'll take a chance with the over and hope that the Cyclones figure things out offensively. 

Minnesota is 3-0 with wins at home over New Mexico State, Fresno State and Miami-Ohio. They've had a solid run game and very good defense although Fresno is really the only squad that is decent in that group. They held all three opponents to less then 100 yards rushing and 250 yards passing. Maryland is coming off an awful loss at home to Temple in which they couldn't block the Owls or do enough offensively. The Golden Gophers QB is banged up and may struggle against a Terps defense looking to improve from last week. Each team has gone under in two of their three contests. Maryland has gone under in nine of their last 13 as a favorite. Minnesota has gone under in 15 of their last 28 games overall. I think this one is a lower scoring contest.

Ole Miss is in this weird sandwich spot in which they just got undressed 62-7 by Alabama and have a road trip to LSU next week. In between is Kent State who just lost 63-10 at Penn State. Woody Barrett has helped make KSU's offense a lot more competent then it has been in the past. They scored 24 at Illinois and 54 against a decent Howard. The problem for them is that the defense allowed 94 points to their two FBS opponents. Ole Miss can score on anyone outside of the Crimson Tide. They put up 47 on Texas Tech and 76 on Southern Illinois. Their problems are on defense where they've allowed 27, 41 and 62. The Rebels have gone over in 12 of their last 16 home games and 18 of their last 27 overall. Shootout potential here.

Arizona State is flying high after knocking off Michigan State 16-13 at home. The Sun Devils defense flew around and shut down the Spartans run game. They now have the challenge of getting themselves up for a road game against San Diego State. The Aztecs are without quarterback Christian Chapman who is out for a few weeks with a knee injury. The backup is pretty competent so i'm not as worried about that. They are 1-1 on the season with a 31-10 loss at Stanford and a 28-14 win over Sacramento State. Juwan Washington is the newest flavor of the year at running back. The Aztecs defense has been very good against the run and good enough against the pass. Last year they won in Tempe 30-20 in a game that saw them rush for nearly 300 yards on the ground. I think the Aztecs are ready for this one and could get the win outright if ASU is a little sleepy.

The Warhawks are 2-0 with wins over SE Louisiana and Southern Miss. They've shown a balance being able to run the ball and throw it as well. If they can cut down the turnovers then Caleb Evans and the boys should be able to keep this close. Texas A&M is coming into this one off a heartbreaking 28-26 loss to Clemson. The team had their chances to win, but couldn't come up with the big play. The Aggies lost a starting linebacker for the season last game and may still be a bit hungover. Even worse, they have a road tilt at Alabama next week which could also get their focus. There's no doubt the Aggies are the more talented team in this one, but focus could be an issue. They've covered just six of their last 16 at home. ULM has covered nine of their last 15 road games and have split ATS their last two against the SEC. This one should be close on Saturday.

FIU is 1-1 after beating Old Dominion in Norfolk last time out. They have shown a ground game and a decent passing attack. The Golden Panthers have rushed for 170 yards or more in each of their two contests. The defense has had some issues slowing down teams through the air which plays right into what UMass wants to do with Andrew Ford. The Minutemen looked great week one against Duquesne, but have struggled since then losing big time at Georgia Southern and Boston College. They had problems stopping anyone on defense and could have issues with the FIU running back. These two played a crazy game in Florida with FIU winning 63-45 by racking up over 600 yards of offense. FIU has gone over in 16 of their last 27. UMass has gone over in 15 of their last 26 games. I think this one sees plenty of points. 

I'm a huge Buffalo guy. It was my favorite total from the preseason and so far so good for the Bulls. They have wins over Delaware State and Temple and have shown good offensive balance and a good defense as well. Anthony Johnson is one of the best wide receivers in college football. Eastern Michigan is coming off a win over Purdue so they are feeling good. Tyler Wiegers has been a really good quarterback and he's finding Blake Banham a lot. The offense has been fantastic but I think it comes down to earth in this one. Despite winning last week, they allowed almost 500 yards of offense to Purdue. The team gave up over 350 yards to Monmouth in a 51-17 win. Eastern Michigan is a covering machine lately, but they lose this one on Saturday.

FAU has had some ups and downs this season so far. They were blasted by Oklahoma 63-14 in week one and followed that up with a 33-27 win over Air Force. Devin Singletary has yet to crack 100 yards rushing yet so you know they'll want to change that against this FCS opponent. They also have a game next week against the defending national champions in UCF so who knows if focus will be an issue. Last year they won this game 45-0 at home. Bethune Cookman lost their opener 34-3 to Tennessee State but then bounced back with a 79-16 win over Virginia University of Lynchburg. This year's squad is trying to run their offense quicker which means they'll either put the points up or go 3-and-out quicker. I think this one goes over the total.

I'm usually very leery with laying this many points, but San Jose State is just so bad. The Spartans were just shut out at Washington State 31-0 in a game that saw them manage just 109 yards of total offense. They lost at home in week one to UC Davis 44-38. Oregon has been steamrolling opponents beating Bowling Green 58-24 and Portland State 62-14. The Ducks didn't really take the foot off the pedal against the Vikings last week either with some of their starters playing later in the game. We may not see that happen in this one with a home contest against Stanford up next, but I still think their backups could keep it going. San Jose State has failed to cover in eight of their last 11 non-conference games. They are 4-10 against the spread the last three seasons on the road. This one is going to be really ugly.

Wyoming football started off their season with a 29-7 win at New Mexico State and a lot of good feelings. Since then they lost 41-19 at home to Washington State and 40-13 on the road at Missouri. The team is hosting Boise State on the 29th so there's a chance focus could be a bit of an issue for a team whose offense isn't good enough to blow out good teams. The team is also preparing for the triple option of Wofford that beat the Citadel 28-21 and VMI 59-14. Last year the Terriers lost 31-10 at South Carolina and 38-13 at Ole Miss two years ago. This should be a bit of a lower scoring game as the Cowboys don't scare me. I think this one is a good spread for the road team. 

Duke is 2-0 and coming off a road win at Northwestern but it was a mighty costly one. They lost quarterback Daniel Jones for around a month and their number one cornerback for the rest of the season. The team hasn't really been stressed on defense yet by Army and Northwestern. Baylor comes in feeling good after a 55-27 win over Abilene Christian and a 37-20 win at UTSA. The offense is clicking right now particularly through the air where they've put up over 700 yards. The defense was gashed in week one but has improved in week two. The Blue Devils won this game 34-20 at home last year and did so with a balanced attack. I just don't know if they can keep that balance without Jones under center. I think Baylor is looking for revenge and gets the double digit win.

This game on Saturday could have a very weird feel to it with Hurricane Florence in the area. Clemson moved this game up to a noon kickoff in order to try and beat it, but I still think there could be some wind and rain. Even if there's not, there's still a chance it's not the most attended. The Tigers are coming off a 28-26 road win and have ACC conference play up next at Georgia Tech. Clemson's defense will be quite ornery as they probably think they can do a lot better. In comes Georgia Southern who has wins over South Carolina State and UMass. The Eagles triple option has worked in both games with Shai Werts under center. GSU's defense has played well too although it's going to be a different challenge on Saturday. I think this is a vanilla gameplan from the home team and I think they may struggle a little bit with the option. GSU has covered in seven of their last eight games as a road underdog of 21.5 or more points. I'll take the road team in this one. 

Hawaii has been one of the best stories in the country and they are 3-0 entering this one against Army. The team is averaging 540 yards per game and 48.3 points. The defense has been pretty porous allowing over 500 yards per contest. This will be their second game against the triple option after beating Navy 59-41. Because the Midshipmen ran for over 300 yards, the numbers are a bit skewed. They also allowed 537 yards passing to Colorado State in a 43-34 win. Army is coming off a 38-14 win over Liberty in which both teams racked up a ton of yardage. Liberty would have scored more points if not for three turnovers. The biggest concern for Hawaii is the early start time which will mess with their body clocks. I think they struggle to slow down the home team in this one. Hawaii has gone over in 17 of their last 29 games including all three this season. I think this one has a boatload of points. 

Wake Forest and Boston College are putting up huge numbers, but we'll see that change on Thursday. The game has been moved up to a 5:30 kickoff and may be dealing with some rain and wind as Florence approaches. The Demon Deacons have wins over Tulane and Towson so far. They've been able to put up good offensive numbers, but the opposition wasn't very good. The defense struggled with their opponent's passing game, but luckily BC's bread and butter is the run. The Eagles crushed UMass and Holy Cross at home, but are now beginning a stretch of three of four on the road. Their defense has been fantastic, but once again the offenses were duds. Last year Wake won this game 34-10 on the road holding the Eagles to just 142 yards on the ground while forcing four turnovers. These two have played nine straight unders and the conditions may make things a little difficult. BC has gone under in eight of their last 11 games as a favorite. To me, this one is going to see a lot of running and stacked boxes. Whichever team gets their aerial attack going will most likely win this one. Anthony Brown has more experience then Sam Hartman. Still, I think this one goes under the total. 

We'll finish off presumably a profitable Saturday with a high scoring affair between Rice and Hawaii. The Rainbows are averaging 51 points and almost 600 yards per contest. Cole McDonald has been hot under center. The problem for them is that the defense has been bad too allowing over 500 yards. Now some of that is skewed because of Navy's running attack, but they have been bad no matter what. Rice has been surprising this season as they put up over 400 yards of offense and more points then I thought against Houston. The Owls beat Prairie View 31-28 in week one. They also allowed over 350 yards of offense to them as well.  This one will close out the slate nicely with plenty of points.

This could be me being stubborn, but I see a lot of potential in Old Dominion and aren't going to let a loss to Liberty dissuade me. Yes, everything went wrong in that game with the defense allowing almost 600 yards of offense and the offense putting up only 10 points. Still, the O has plenty of weapons who will be a lot more active at home. ODU has won each of the last two matchups and that was as a 10 point underdog in 2017 and as a 14 point favorite in 2016. FIU lost 38-28 at home to Indiana and their offense just couldn't get things going. The passing attack had only 157 yards through the air and that's without Alex McGough who graduated. The defense was gashed on the ground and through the air. Depending when you get it, ODU could be a dog or a favorite. FIU has not covered as a fave in the last three years and is 12-13 ATS over that span overall. Norfolk will be rocking Saturday night and the Monarchs will get back on track in a big way.

The Cavaliers were very workmanlike in their 42-13 win over Richmond. They ran for over 300 yards and slowed down the Spiders on defense too. Jordan Ellis was very strong and Bryce Perkins was able to throw and run the ball while playing quarterback. For one week the defense did it's job and was able to overcome it's losses. Indiana also got a win and they did so with more balance and just enough defense. They were gashed for 170 yards on the ground by FIU. Last year the Hoosiers came to Charlottesville and beat up the Hoos. Indiana is 9-17 ATS the last three seasons. They've been a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points just twice the last three seasons splitting those two games. I think the road team is worth a definite look especially with wet weather potentially limiting the crowd and Indiana's creativity. 

I'll take a shot here with the over. UT-Martin allowed over 50 points to Missouri and struggled with their passing attack. Brent Stockstill and his weapons were stymied by Vanderbilt to the tune of 35-7. I think the Blue Raiders take their frustrations out on the Skyhawks. They put up 55 on Alabama A&M in 2016, 70 on Jackson State in 2015 and 61 on Savannah State in 2014. I think they can score the total themselves potentially. 

Savannah State lost 52-0 to UAB last week. They were overmatched and that was with a stretch where the Blazers had some turnovers. The Tigers completed one pass and looked absolutely inept. Their FCS games have been absolutely ugly. The opponent Miami was embarrassed by LSU and should be mighty angry. If Savannah State crosses midfield, then i'll be shocked. Give me the Canes who might score 80. 

I think this is a case of overreacting to one week's results. Memphis beat Mercer 66-14 in a game which saw them put up over 700 yards of offense and look very good defensively. The Tigers played very well against an inferior opponent. Navy got gashed by Hawaii 59-41 in a game on the road. The defense was horrible, but the offense was very good. They rushed for over 300 yards, but just couldn't keep up. Last year Navy lost 30-27 on the road in this series in a game that was tied at 10 at half. In a week-to-week basis it's very tough to prepare for the triple option which was run pretty well despite the loss. Navy has been a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points just seven times since 1992 and they've covered four of those games. They are 7-4 against the spread the last three seasons at home. I think this is an overreaction and the home team is worth a look.

The Bulls are another team that I will be on often this season. They steamrolled Delaware State 48-10 in week one and it's because of Tyree Jackson who is healthy and a defense that forced four turnovers. It's a bit concerning that they allowed nearly 200 rushing yards, but Temple only put up 46 yards on the ground at home against an FCS team. Their offense looked lethargic and the defense had too many mental breakdowns. There's not much in the way of homefield advantage here especially after the loss to the Wildcats. Buffalo is one of my favorite teams and I think they can win this one outright.

This is your basic lookahead factor as the Hokies come off a hugely emotional road win against Florida State. The last time they played five days after an emotional game, they lost to James Madison at home after falling to Boise State at FedEx Field. Virginia Tech's team is very young and I don't know how they'll handle the quick turnaround and not being in the spotlight. The offense struggled to get things going for the most part outside of a couple of touchdown passes. The defense is also really young. I feel like if the Tribe scores 3 or 7 points then we're good here. I could see a 35-3 game. William and Mary's offense is competent while the defense is good enough. We'll get an unfocused Tech team in this one. 

This one is going to get really ugly. Portland State lost 72-19 to Nevada and the Wolf Pack's offense is nowhere near as good as the Ducks. Oregon's defense will have to tighten up a bit after they allowed 24 points to Bowling Green. They put up 58 at least on the FBS defense. They should be able to score more here. Last year they knocked off Southern Utah 77-21 at home and have bludgeoned bad opponents at home. Give me the Ducks. 

The Wolfpack manufactured a 24-13 win over JMU on Saturday. They weren't able to run the ball that well and allowed the Dukes to move up and down the field. The key was they held them to just 13 points though. This team has one more tune up before hosting West Virginia in week three. It looks like wideout Stephen Louis will play, but Jakobi Meyers may not. The team also had defensive tackle Eurndraus Bryant suffer an injury. I'm guessing they may hold them out because it's not a huge game. Georgia State beat Kennesaw State 24-20. They did just enough on offense and held them out of the end zone when it counted. My bet here is that GSU doesn't score much and they do just enough to keep NC State in the 40s. The Panthers have gone under in 17 of their last 25 games including 10 of their last 14 as an underdog. NC State has gone under in 15 of their last 27 games. I think this one is another under. 

NC A&T already has a win under their belts on the road at Jacksonville State 20-17. They beat Kent State in 2016 and Charlotte last year so there's no level of intimidation here. QB Lamar Raynard has not lost as starter yet for the Aggies. The team has been in the top 10 in run defense pretty much every year under Sam Washington except 2014 when they were 24th. Raynard struggled in the first game with just 12 completions, but the defense did what they had to in order to beat JSU. East Carolina is coming off a 3-9 season in which it lost at home to JMU 34-14.. Trevon Brown is a good wide receiver for Reid Herring who has one career pass. I don't see this being a blowout and can certainly see a victory for the road team. 

 Hawaii picked up a win in week zero 43-34 at Colorado State as a healthy underdog. The Rainbow Warriors accounted for over 600 yards of offense while giving up over 650 themselves. CSU did it through the air while Navy will do it on the ground. Hawaii's offense brought back four players while the defense had five. The last time they played a triple option team was probably Air Force beating them 34-27 in two overtimes back in 2016. Navy went 7-6 last year and brings back nine starters of their own. Malcolm Perry will be under center and he ran for almost 1200 yards last year with 11 touchdowns. As usual, there are several options at running back and former QB Zach Abey is now a wide receiver. The defense has some holes, but with the extra time to prepare and some film to look at, things may be better. I think they struggle. Hawaii has gone over in 15 of their last 26 lined games. I think this one goes over too. 

VMI is coming off a winless season and won't be seeing one in this game either. The Keydets have a very young team and are switching to an Air Raid style of offense. They had been a triple option team in the past so this will either help get them even a couple of points in this one or it will get their defense on even quicker. Five times they allowed 40 points or more including the season opener against Air Force 62-0. Toledo is returning 12 starters, but is breaking in a new quarterback as Logan Woodside graduated. Mitchell Guadagni will be under center and he's got a great WR corps to throw to. Cody Thompson is really good. The defense could slip a little bit and they may not pitch a shutout in this one. Even so, I think the Rockets crack 50 points. Thy did so three times last year against lesser opponents. I think this one is ugly and over the total. 

Nicholls State lost 24-14 at Texas A&M last year and hung tough at Georgia two years ago. The Colonels return pretty much their whole offense which was very successful. They are led by Chase Fourcade under center and he's the 4th leading rusher. His one issue was too many interceptions with 13 of them to just 14 touchdowns. The backfield is stacked and the top wide receiver is back in Damion Jeanpiere. The defense is filled with juniors and seniors who would not be intimidated by Kansas. The Jayhawks have struggled against FCS opponents. Their win last year over SEMO was 38-16 and represented the only victory. Kansas has 18 starters back and Peyton Bender is going to be under center. He's got a lot of his skill positions back. To get 10 points is a gift especially since they can win outright. 

UT-Martin went 6-5 last year in the OVC. They fell 45-23 at Ole Miss in week two of their season. The Skyhawks were known for their defense holding their opponents to just 14.3 points per game. Of course, the OVC is nowhere near the talent level of the SEC. The offense is led by senior running back LaDarius Galloway. Missouri returns 16 starters including heralded quarterback Drew Lock. Lock threw 44 touchdown passes to 13 interceptions and has pretty much all of his top receivers back except for J'Mon Moore. The run game has some talent back as well. Defensively, they should be better then the 31.8 points per game they allowed in 2017. They opened up with an FCS opponent last year picking up a 72-43 win. They scored 40 points or more in their final six regular season games. In 2016, the Tigers beat their FCS opponent Delaware State 79-0. I think there's a chance that they score 57 points by themselves. 

The Huskies were 8-5 in 2017 and won't be intimidated by playing at Iowa. Last year they won at Nebraska and nearly knocked off San Diego State at their place a week later. This offense has eight starters back and is starting to get comfortable with Marcus Childers under center. The defense features a stout defensive line that will face an Iowa team without both of it's tackles. The Hawkeyes have gone 8-5 each of the past two seasons. Their offense features Nathan Stanley and Noah Fant while the defense is solid as well. This team has struggled at times at home losing to Purdue and Penn State there. They aren't flashy, but just get things done. NIU is 16-6 against the spread against the Big 10. 

The Minutemen are flying high after a 63-15 win over Duquesne in Week 0 of the college football season. They head to Chestnut Hill to take on Boston College on Saturday. These two teams played back in 2016 with BC winning 26-7 at UMass. The Minutemen are led by signal caller Andrew Ford on offense along with running back Marquis Young and wideout Andy Isabella. The defense has six starters back with returnees on all levels. They have traditionally struggled against run defenses which is what BC wants to do with AJ Dillon. UMass lost last year by 10 at Coastal Carolina, 8 at Temple, 4 at Tennessee, 11 at Mississippi State and by 18 at FIU. BC has 16 starters back with 10 of them on offense. Anthony Brown is a decent quarterback that has had turnover issues from time-to-time. The defense may take a bit of a step back after allowing 22.8 points per game in 2017. The Eagles lost four games at home last year but also blew out UConn, Florida State and Central Michigan as well. I think in this case the team getting a game under the belt is a help and the Minutemen make things interesting. UMass is 8-4 against the spread the last three years on the road.

Rice picked up a 31-28 win over Prairie View in Week 0 of the college football season. The Owls defense struggled at times with A&M and was able to run the ball pretty well with Emmanuel Eskupa. The passing attack continued to struggle at points much like it did last year. The Owls lost this game in Houston 38-3 as they had problems moving the ball. They do have a game under their belt unlike the Cougars who return five starters on each side of the ball. Houston's story begins and ends with Ed Oliver up front. He's the best defensive tackle in college football and will wreak havoc on the Rice front. The rest of the defense is a little green, but they shouldn't have much of an issue with the home team. D'Eriq King is back at quarterback, but his skill position guys are pretty new outside of Courtney Lark at wide receiver. Houston has gone under in 17 of their last 25 games including seven of their last 10 on the road. I could see a similar score of 38-3 as last year's matchup between the two. 

It's a rivalry when Temple plays Villanova on the gridiron. The Owls beat the Cats 16-13 last year at home when Nova wasn't even full strength. Temple has won four straight in this series and is returning 12 starters. Frank Nutile is the quarterback and he stabilizes the position. The team's defense lost crucial pieces, but still has a solid front line as well as a solid secondary. The Wildcats had only five wins last season because of a massive amount of injuries. They are led by Zach Bednarczyk and a lot of his offensive weapons who got hurt. This team's offense could be tough to slow down. Nova's defense was fourth in the nation in rushing yards allowed. Rob Rolle and Jeff Steeb are good leaders with Rolle coming off injury as well. I really think this line is inflated and that it'll be a one score game. 

It's a rare trip for the ACC to MAC country as Syracuse goes to Kalamazoo to play Western Michigan. The Broncos are led by Tim Lester who was the OC for the Orange in 2015. A lot of his staff was with him in New York and some of them helped him recruit Eric Dungey to the school. Dungey is the lone active FBS signal caller with 6,000 passing and 1,000 rushing yards. His weapons have taken a downturn from last year when he had Phillips and Ishmael hauling in passes. The run game is improved, but how much will they be able to use it in a potentially high scoring game. The Broncos defense is very strong and deep especially in the secondary where Juwan Dowels and Justin Tranquill will be playing. Jon Wassink is the WMU quarterback and he's got a couple of decent running backs and wide receivers with him. The Orange has a decent defense with six starters back. Western Michigan has covered 15 of their last 26 games including four of their last six as an underdog. This is a rare opportunity that they have a chance to win outright on Friday night.

Ball State went 2-10 last year after their offense was ravaged by injuries. Riley Neal, James Gilbert and Corey Lacanaria all were medical redshirts last year. That's their number one QB, RB and WR. The team is switching to a 3-4 defense which means some growing pains could be expected. The offense is capable of scoring points and should be able to do so on Central Connecticut. CCSU was picked to win the NEC and has several good offensive players. Jacob Dolegala has thrown for nearly 6,000 yards and is the signal caller for an offense that averaged 185 rushing yards last season and allowed only nine sacks in the regular season. The defense has some talent led by Kenneth Keen, Tajik Bagley and Chris Tinkham. The Blue Devils lost their FBS game last year 50-7 at Syracuse and then proceeded to lose two more before railing off eight wins on their way to the playoffs. To me this one should be a bit of a shootout with both teams being able to move the ball well on the other. 

Ball State went 2-10 last year after their offense was ravaged by injuries. Riley Neal, James Gilbert and Corey Lacanaria all were medical redshirts last year. That's their number one QB, RB and WR. The team is switching to a 3-4 defense which means some growing pains could be expected. The offense is capable of scoring points and should be able to do so on Central Connecticut. CCSU was picked to win the NEC and has several good offensive players. Jacob Dolegala has thrown for nearly 6,000 yards and is the signal caller for an offense that averaged 185 rushing yards last season and allowed only nine sacks in the regular season. The defense has some talent led by Kenneth Keen, Tajik Bagley and Chris Tinkham. The Blue Devils lost their FBS game last year 50-7 at Syracuse and then proceeded to lose two more before railing off eight wins on their way to the playoffs. To me this one should be a bit of a shootout with both teams being able to move the ball well on the other.

It's "Week Zero" in college football as New Mexico State hosts Wyoming. The Cowboys are led by redshirt freshman Tyler Vander Waal who beat out Nick Smith the senior. The offensive line has three redshirt freshmen and two seniors so there could be some growing pains. The running backs are led by Nico Davis and have to take on a bigger role with so much uncertainty elsewhere. The Cowboys will go as their defense goes with eight starters back from a group that allowed just 17.5 points per game. They led the nation forcing 38 turnovers so there could be some regression there. New Mexico State is coming off a bowl victory last year. Larry Rose and Tyler Rogers are both gone and they were a huge part of that offense. Matthew Romero will be the starting quarterback while Jason Huntley runs the ball. The defense brings back nine starters and 10 of their top 11 tacklers. Wyoming went under in 10 of 13 games in 2017 while the Aggies did so in eight of 13. The under has hit in eight of the last 10 home games for New Mexico State. I think there's some offensive struggles in this one. 

There are so many similarities in this game as both teams want to run it but can pass it as well. The Dukes won this matchup last year on the road so you know the Bison will want revenge as JMU snapped their championship run. One of the advantages that the team from the CAA has is that ND State has injury issues in their secondary and will be without one of their starting corners. His replacement is making his first start and you know Bryan Schor will pick on that. I think this one will be close and even if JMU doesn't win, then this will be a FG contest. I'd also consider the under. 

I'm probably falling into Vegas' trap with this one, but the Hokies offense won't be scaring anyone. When Cam Phillips announced that he was not playing, Virginia Tech's O took a huge hit. The rest of the receiver group is pretty mediocre and the running backs are just alright even after Travon McMillan's departure. The Hokies defense has struggled with the athletic opponents that they've faced. OSU's offense is one of the best in the country with Mason Rudolph and James Washington as a potent duo. The problem with them has been their defense and questionable motivation here. The Cowboys were expecting big things so who knows if they'll be happy playing in Orlando a couple of days before New Years. I think that's the only reason there hasn't been more of a line move. I'll take the bait though and the better team. 

I think this is a good spot for Virginia who is in their first bowl game in awhile. The Cavaliers have experience against the triple option having already beaten Georgia Tech. In that game they did struggle a bit against it, but the Yellow Jackets defense had their issues with the Hoos. Any time you have extra time to prep for the option is great. Navy is coming off a tough loss to Army and has limped down the stretch. Who knows what they are thinking entering this one. UVA's defense isn't bad and their offense is inconsistent at best. It is a Navy home game, but there will be plenty of Cavalier fans there. I think they win outright and will gladly take the points. 

You've got a classic case of a good offense vs. a good defense. The Rams enter this one having lost three of their last four. They've scored 94 points in their last two games, but the defense let them down during this losing skid. The Rams can run it and throw it with Michael Gallup doing a lot of work. The defense is pretty good against the pass which Marshall is alright at doing. The Thundering Herd's offense doesn't scare anyone and I don't know if they can take advantage of the porous defense opposite them. Marshall lost four of their last five entering this one. I don't think they'll be able to stay on the field long enough to not put pressure on the defense. This might be the best offense Marshall will have faced all year long. 

You've got a classic case of a good offense vs. a good defense. The Rams enter this one having lost three of their last four while Marshall has lost four of their last five. The Thundering Herd's offense is pretty awful and CSU has been able to shut down some of their lesser offensive teams. Marshall's defense is really good and has been able to rack up the unders as a squad. The Herd have gone under in 22 of their last 37 games. I think CSU gets the win, but the under hits as well. 

JMU is the defending champion and is coming off a mediocre effort against Weber State. The Dukes passing attack had it's issues, but they also came through when it mattered. Bryan Schor had an up and down effort with a couple of interceptions, but he also got Riley Stapleton involved. Ultimately though, the run game got things going and will continue to do so. South Dakota State can be run on and that's ultimately what will do them in. The Jackrabbits offense is very good with Taryn Christion under center. They have not run into a defense as good as the Dukes. JMU is allowing just 3.8 yards per play defensively. They are more equipped to win a shootout. I also think homefield is nice for JMU. They are the better team so I'll take them to win. 

The New Orleans Bowl features North Texas and Troy. We've made a lot of money on the Mean Green who have had to adjust their offense without Jeffrey Wilson. This means Mason Fine has had to do more and they've won five of their last six. The team played poorly against FAU in the title game, but that was a true road contest. The defense has had problems with the run, but has played the pass pretty well. Troy's banged up with four players who got hurt in the conference title. Cornerback Blace Brown, safety Kris Weatherspoon and wide receiver Emanuel Thompson all are out. The Trojans have covered just four of their last 10 games as a favorite this season. I really like Seth Littrell as a coach and as long as I can get the 7.5, I'll take the underdog. 

The Army/Navy under is one of my favorite bets all season long. You've got to get in early on this one because some of the value is already gone with the opener starting at 51. These two teams run the same type of offense which reduces the amount of possessions in this game. The under has hit in 17 of their last 25 meetings. The last two years we've seen 21-17 games which is about right considering each side has familiarity. Army has gone under in 17 of their last 19 games as an underdog. They probably have a good shot at winning this one, but I'll take the under. 

The Bulldogs have been covering machines going 9-2 ATS this season including five of their six road games. They took the home matchup between these two last week 28-17 in a game that saw them succeed through the air and hold Boise down offensively. FSU has road wins at San Diego State, Wyoming and Hawaii as of late so the atmosphere won't be that intimidating. This figures to be a lower scoring game potentially with two good defenses and a Boise team that has struggled at home to cover. The Broncos are 4-13 ATS the last three seasons at home. I'm sure both teams held stuff back last week, but I don't know if the change of venue is worth that many points. This is a one possession game. 

The AAC title game is up for grabs as UCF hosts Memphis. The Golden Knights took this game 40-13 at home back in September by virtue of an offense that put up 350 yards on the ground and over 600 total. It was a rough effort for Riley Ferguson. Since then, Memphis has averaged over 50 points per game and is steamrolling opponents. They had road wins at UConn, Houston and Tulsa and have to be feeling confident about their chances. The Golden Knights are coming off an emotional 49-42 win over rival USF last time out. They've also been playing well offensively, but last week's game showed that their secondary has some issues potentially. The other story is that Coach Frost is indirectly being mentioned a lot for the Nebraska job. Focus could be an issue for a team whose coach is potentially going elsewhere. I'll take the Tigers with the hook and be happy. 

A hurricane rescheduled game features FIU hosting UMass. The Golden Panthers have cruised offensively putting up 95 points over their last three weeks against ODU, FAU and Western Kentucky. The defense has been a problem and it doesn't stop the run or the pass. UMass has not played since November 18th so they'll be fresh for this one. The offense can move the ball, and usually it has to because the defense isn't that good. FIU has gone over in 10 of their last 18 home games and UMass has gone over in 14 of their last 24 contests as an underdog. I think this is a higher scoring game. 

I'll take the bait and take the home team in this one. BYU is coming off an embarrassing 16-10 home loss to UMass in which the offense had four turnovers and the defense fell just a bit short. BYU's offense has shown a little bit of spunk at times, but they've also put forth five efforts of 17 points or less in their last seven games. Hawaii has lost four straight games and has not shown much defensive effort in any of those games. With this being a late game in Hawaii with a team who has nothing to play for, you could really see an unfocused effort. I just don't know how anyone can trust BYU at all, certainly as a favorite. They were a favorite at ECU and lost.

UTSA has played six straight unders and it's because of their fantastic defense which has allowed 95 points over that span. They are good against the run and the pass. The offense has been pretty bad as of late with just 35 points against FIU, UAB and Marshall. Louisiana Tech has the better offense, but the worse defense in this one. Still, I think we see a lot of running plays and that helps the pace of this one move along. The home team is playing for a potential bowl bid while the road team is playing for momentum. I think this is close and low scoring.

UNLV has won three of their last four entering the big rivalry game against Nevada. The Running Rebels have been rolling on the ground with two 300 yard efforts in the last month or so. Their defense isn't great, but they've made stops when they've had to. The last few weeks they've been better against the pass. Nevada has lost four of their last five and they've struggled with stopping anyone on defense. Since the end of September, five opponents have scored 40 points or more. UNLV has covered 11 of their last 17 road games winning five of those outright. I think they are the better team in this one. 

FAU has gone over in five of their last six and should do so here against a Charlotte team that can't stop the run. The Owls are averaging over 40 points per game during this current win streak. They are doing so with a lethal running attack. Charlotte just gave up 363 yards on the ground to Southern Miss in a 66-21 loss. The 49ers offense isn't very good, but they've managed 21 points in each of the last two weeks. Lane Kiffin doesn't let off the pedal either so I think that FAU gets a big lead and keeps pounding it. 

Well sadly I get only one more chance to fade UTEP as they play at UAB. The Miners have the worst offense statistically in the league and have not covered their last five games. They've lost by 35 at North Texas, 27 at MTSU, 24 at Southern Miss and 14 at Army. UAB has been one of the best stories in college football and have won three of their last four. In a similar situation we faded Rice at UAB and the Blazers rewarded us with a 52-21 win. I think they will want to get a huge win in front of their fans before the bowl game. UTEP has covered just two of their 11 games overall. I'll fade them one more time. 

This is a really odd line to me. Yes, Wake Forest has been impressive offensively, but they are extremely leaky as a defense. The Demon Deacons are allowing over 200 yards per game on the ground. They've given up 24 points or more in every game since Florida State in late September. The offense is clicking even without Greg Dortch who made a difference out wide. Duke snapped their losing streak last week in a big way beating Georgia Tech 43-20. In that game, they realized how effective the run game can be when you stick with it. The defense will be glad to face a passing team after two straight weeks of the option. Duke has covered 11 of their last 19 games as an underdog winning eight of them outright. The Demon Deacons are a lot better but this might be a bit of an overreaction. The road team could be a live dog in this one. 

Memphis is rolling having won six in a row as a team. They've put up 56, 66 and 70 during this win streak and they are playing for a lot here. The Tigers want to win their half of the AAC and ECU's defense is very giving. They are allowing over 50 points per game away from home and allowed 52 at Houston and 63 at UCF. The offense has shown some spunk too so I think they can contribute a lot to this total. Memphis has gone over in five of six home games and 13 of their last 19 there. This one should see a ton of points.

Well folks, we made it to the end of the regular season and now it's rivalry time in the conference. You know the numbers so I don't need to rehash the streak and how things have gone for the Hoos. While the record is different, the two teams on the field aren't that different. Tech has better offensive numbers, but they also had an easier schedule. It's very hard for me to trust this side of the ball. They've scored just 76 points over their last four contests as Josh Jackson has been inconsistent. Last week, the Hokies won 20-14 at home against Pittsburgh and it was uninspiring. UVA gave me my lock of the year last week as we got an unfocused Miami team for long enough that they couldn't overcome the 19/20 point spread. I have a feeling that Kurt Benkert is going to play one of his better games against a Tech secondary that is very beatable. Tech may have won 20 of their last 25 in this series, but they've only covered 15 of those contests. The total is way too high for this one so I think the Under is worth a look and so is the home team. UVA has covered 17 of their last 27 games as an underdog. I don't know if we will even need the points because I think the Hoos can win outright. That said, as long as it stays at 7 or above, I love the Cavs. The other factor to consider is that it probably won't sound like Blacksburg as I'm assuming most UVA fans have kept their tickets for this one instead of selling them in disgust. 

Well folks, we made it to the end of the regular season and now it's rivalry time in the conference. You know the numbers so I don't need to rehash the streak and how things have gone for the Hoos. While the record is different, the two teams on the field aren't that different. Tech has better offensive numbers, but they also had an easier schedule. It's very hard for me to trust this side of the ball. They've scored just 76 points over their last four contests as Josh Jackson has been inconsistent. Last week, the Hokies won 20-14 at home against Pittsburgh and it was uninspiring. UVA gave me my lock of the year last week as we got an unfocused Miami team for long enough that they couldn't overcome the 19/20 point spread. I have a feeling that Kurt Benkert is going to play one of his better games against a Tech secondary that is very beatable. Tech may have won 20 of their last 25 in this series, but they've only covered 15 of those contests. The total is way too high for this one so I think the Under is worth a look and so is the home team. UVA has covered 17 of their last 27 games as an underdog. I don't know if we will even need the points because I think the Hoos can win outright. That said, as long as it stays at 7 or above, I love the Cavs. The other factor to consider is that it probably won't sound like Blacksburg as I'm assuming most UVA fans have kept their tickets for this one instead of selling them in disgust. 

Ohio's slim hopes to make the MAC title game went up in smoke last week. Now they head to Buffalo to play a Bulls team that needs a win to become bowl eligible. These two have combined for 13 overs in 22 games with eight of those coming from Ohio. Their offense is putting up over 40 points per game while the Buffalo defense has struggled at times. The UB offense has started to work as of late as they continue to feed Anthony Johnson who is one of the best WRs in the MAC. Buffalo has gone over in four of their five home contests. I think we get a looser Bobcat squad and a focused Bulls team who want to go bowling.

Wake Forest is bowl eligible after a 64-43 win at Syracuse. They are home after a stretch of five of seven on the road so it should be nice for them. The offense has been rolling despite the fact that they lost Greg Dortch who was their best weapon. The defense has not been great though as they have allowed 28 points or more in five straight. NC State won in Chestnut Hill 17-14 last time out and now hits the road again before the rivalry contest against North Carolina. I'm tempted again to go with the home team like we did last week. The Deacs are playing good football right now. The question is if they can make the stops when necessary. Wake has covered nine of 12 at home in this series although NC State has won the last two outright. The Deacs are 21-13 ATS the last three seasons. NC State has covered just five of their last 14 as an underdog. I'll go with the home team although I'd like it more at 1.

Boston College takes on UConn on Saturday without starting quarterback Anthony Brown. The Eagles are coming off a 17-14 loss to NC State. Their offense has shown flashes but now they'll probably have to rely on AJ Dillon. UConn's defense is pretty terrible, but I think they can keep BC in check. Their offense is bad too and BC's defense has had success against the lesser offenses it's faced. The scene is not your typical football stadium either so there may be an adjustment period. Last year these two teams played a 30-0 game. I think this one is an under. BC has gone under in 10 of their last 12 as a favorite and 24 of their last 35 overall.

I like UTSA in this situation with more to play for and the better offense and defense. Meep Meep has lost two straight after winning two in a row. Dalton Sturm has had some poor numbers as of late, but I think it sets up nicely for him to succeed in this one. UTSA has a defense that's actually done pretty well in this conference. Marshall has lost two of their last three games and now this game is meaningless to them as a bowl bid has been locked in. The defense has been a bit leaky as of late. To me, the home team is the better play in this one.

The situation here screams for a Duke victory with Georgia Tech coming off an emotional home win over Virginia Tech and a big one at home against Georgia next week. Duke is also facing their second straight triple option team with a bye week to prep for the first one. The problem with that is that Duke is awful offensively and probably can't take advantage of it. They've scored just 73 points over their current six game losing streak. The defense hasn't been that bad and that's what we are holding our head here for. Georgia Tech's triple option has had it's issues on the road at times scoring just 10 at Clemson and 24 at Miami. Duke has gone under in 15 of their last 18 at home. This series has seen seven unders in their last 11 meetings. To me, this one is a lower possession lower scoring game with Duke having a small shot to cover.

Texas State has played a lot better as of late with Damian Williams under center. They've scored 92 points the last three weeks and would have won some of those games if only their defense was better. The defense has been gashed terribly through the air which is how Arkansas State wants to beat you if they can. The team is coming off a 24-19 loss at South Alabama last time out. They've also not been home for around a month so you know ASU will be highly motivated. Their last two home games were 43-25 and 51-17 wins so the over has been a good play there. I think that these two teams put on a show and we go over the total. 

The Monarchs are trying to make a late push for a bowl spot as they host Rice on Saturday. ODU beat Charlotte and FIU the last two weeks and did so with timely offense and just enough defense to survive. Their freshman quarterback is getting good reps in and the run game has been rolling. In comes Rice who has one win and that was back in September. They don't do much offensively and the defense has been horrendous. They allowed 42 to La Tech, 52 to UAB and 43 to Southern Miss the last three weeks. I know this is a big spread, but I like ODU to win this one rather easily as I just don't think Rice is mentally in it anymore.

I've prided myself on not being like other handicappers out there who scream their phone numbers and yell at you over the radio or internet. I also don't throw around lock or "game of the month" often, but to me, this is the perfect setup for the Cavaliers to cover. There's no doubt how good Miami is, but you are asking them to give a crap about a noon game after playing Virginia Tech and Notre Dame in primetime the last two weeks. The U won by eight as an 18 point favorite at home against Syracuse and by five at UNC as a 21 point favorite so it's been shown that they can play down to their competition. In comes a UVA squad that has lost three of their last four and on a normal Saturday would probably be blown out in this one. The Cavs have covered five of their last six in Miami and the sleepiness factor makes me think it moves to 6-1 in their last seven. This is my favorite play of the ACC Football season.

Defense is optional in this one as two teams with a potent offense play in Memphis. The Tigers have won five straight scoring 30 points or more in all five of those games. They are passing for a ton of yards with Riley Ferguson under center. The problem with the Tigers is that their defense isn't very good. They can't stop the run or the pass which is what SMU does well. The Mustangs have scored 30 points or more in three of four and five of their last seven. These two have combined for 11 overs this season. Memphis has gone over in 12 of their last 18 home games. I think this one is a shootout.

The Academy is hosting Wyoming after they lost 21-0 to Army at home. The Falcons had won three straight before then and get an enigmatic Wyoming team. The Cowboys have won five of their last six, but they are doing so without much work from Josh Allen who was one of the most highly touted QBs in the country. Air Force's triple option was temporarily stymied, but I have a feeling that will change this weekend. Wyoming's defensive tackle position is very banged up and that's important to stopping it. The Cowboys are 3-12  on the road straight up the last three years. I think they lose this one.

The Boilers have played four straight unders as the defense and offense are in good under shape. The once strong unit has lost a quarterback and has put up just 74 points over their last four. The defense is actually not getting enough credit for what they've been able to do holding five of their last seven opponents to 17 points or less. Northwestern has to be a bit fatigued winning three straight overtime contests. Their offense has shown some balance as of late and the defense has been really strong especially against the run. Northwestern has gone under in 14 of their last 19 home games and 20 of their last 35 overall. I think this one is an under.

I've enjoyed fading UTEP and Rice when the situation arises. UTEP has not won a game yet this season and the offense continues to be dismal. They've scored just 31 points over the last four weeks and are not putting up much of a fight. Ironically, the defense is actually not playing that badly, but they are on the field too much. North Texas is quite the opposite as they are putting up boatloads of points. The worry is the Mean Green defense which is a bit leaky, but everyone has extra motivation after they were smashed by UTEP on the road. The team swears they haven't forgotten it. I think this is a blowout. 

The Bobcats have shown a little fight as of late despite only picking up one win. Their offense has put up over 500 yards the last two contests with Damian Williams under center. The defense has even shown flashes of good play this season. In comes a Georgia State team who has won five of their last six, but is playing their last road game of the regular season. They've played some close contests as the offense has sputtered as of late. They have scored just 52 points over their last three and the defense has sprung some leaks from time to time. To me, the home team is going to be a live dog in a matchup that could feature a lot of points. 

The Blue Devils have lost five straight, but are coming off a bye week which will help them prepare for the Army triple option. Duke's offense is a little broken with just 57 points during this streak. They should be able to find some success against Army who has struggled against the power five schools on the schedule. They've won five straight games, but none of the opponents were that much of a challenge outside of Air Force. The extra time usually helps when prepping for Army. They've covered just five of their last 16 home games and two of their last 11 against teams with a losing record. Duke is 10-2 ATS the last three years in non-conference games. I think they get the win on Saturday. 

The Red Raiders have lost four straight and are heading to Arlington to face off against Baylor. The Bears picked up the win last week at Kansas 38-9. They may have found their quarterback and a bit of their offensive stride entering this one. The Red Raiders defense has allowed over 40 points five times this season and could do again Saturday. The good thing is that they should be able to move the ball on a bad Baylor defense. Playing indoors in Arlington will also help as the elements won't be involved. I think this one is a Big 12 shootout. 

How is NC State going to handle losing two straight to Notre Dame and Clemson? Now they head to Chestnut Hill where weird things happen. Boston College has won three straight including a win over Florida State last time out. The offense has scored 28 points or more in four of their last five games and is rested and ready to go. NC State is playing their third road game over their last four weeks and the once strong defense is letting them down. This is a spot where the home team is going to be a lot more motivated then the road team who much like Virginia Tech has to find motivation from somewhere. BC is 5-1 against the spread against the rest of the ACC while NC State has failed to cover in nine of their last 13 games as a road favorite of 3 points or less. I think the home team is a live dog in this one. 

UCF gets UConn at home on Saturday. The Golden Knights have scored 73, 63 and 40 the last three home contests they've had. This offense can beat you on the ground and through the air. In comes UConn who has allowed 30 points or more in six of their last eight games including 38 at UVA, 49 at SMU and 70 to Memphis at home. The Huskies offense has shown some flashes of brilliance, but I'm counting on UCF to do most of the heavy lifting with this total. There's no lookahead factor for either squad too so I expect a full effort from both. 

Ole Miss has gone over in six straight and it's a mixture of good offense and bad bad bad defense. The Rebels are happy after a three point win at Kentucky last time out 37-34. The backup quarterback has been playing well and should continue to do so against a Lafayette team that is very giving on defense. The question is if they can take advantage of a leaky Ole Miss defense who has allowed 34 points or more in six straight. ULL lost 45-21 at Texas A&M back in September at their place. Now there's been some injuries that will change things, but I think this one should go over the total especially if the team out of the SEC isn't focused. 

Boise State has won four straight and five of their last six entering Saturday's game against Nevada. The Broncos defense has been fantastic, but I think Nevada will stress them a bit. The Wolf Pack has scored 35 points or more in three straight and are doing it with the pass and just enough run as well. Their defense isn't great, but Boise isn't going to wow you with their offense. They also have a bigger game on the road next week at Colorado State that they need their focus for. The Pack has covered in three straight games. Boise has covered just two of their last 16 home games and 11 of their last 31 as a favorite. I think the road team is live in this one.

The Green Wave has lost three straight, but should bounce back in this one against Cincinnati. Tulane's getting a key player back on offense and defense which will help both ailing units. They got smacked by Memphis after losing a tough close game with South Florida. When they are on, the triple optionesque offense is tough to stop. They steamrolled Tulsa and beat Army as well. The defense is capable of more and should shut down Cincinnati. The Bearcats have lost five straight and it's because of a defense that has allowed 30 points or more in each of those games. They don't stop the run and have had problems with the pass. Tulane has covered seven of their last nine as a favorite and nine of their last 16 home games. Cincy has covered just 12 of their last 33 overall. I think the home team gets an easy win.

Things are looking a little better for Nebraska who is coming off a late comeback win at Purdue. They threw for over 400 yards in that one and saw the defense make just enough stops to win. Tanner Lee is talking about being more comfortable in the offense and he'll face one of the worst secondaries in the conference. Northwestern was gashed by Sparty last week in their multiple overtime game. They've won three in a row, but how much is in the tank after that close win over MSU. Northwestern has a win at Maryland, but also lost at Wisconsin and Duke. The Wildcats will rely on their ground game here, but Nebraska has shown in the past that they can slow that down. I think the home team continues their momentum and gets the win.

The Mountaineers have a big game as they host Iowa State on Saturday. WVU is coming off a 50-39 loss to Oklahoma State in a game that saw them turn it over five times. Their defense has been awful, but I think the offense can keep up in any sort of shootout. Iowa State has won four straight and is looking at a huge home game against Oklahoma State next week. The Cyclones have won despite poor play from quarterback. A lot of credit goes to the secondary and the defense as a whole forcing turnovers. I think the Cyclones are playing over their heads so as long as this thing is below three then I'm on the home team. 

I like taking the unders in games against the academies because most times these teams know what the other is going to do. The Air Force game against Navy did not go under unfortunately, but Army's contest with Tulane did. Both of these teams run the ball really well and Army had two weeks to get ready for the Air Force. That time off will make a difference as we've seen when squads get an extra week to prepare for Navy. Air Force has a lot of weapons and Arion Worthman is running the offense well. Neither defense is great, but they are going to be familiar with each other. The under has hit in nine of their last 13 lined meetings. Air Force won last year 31-12 on the road. I think this one is an under.

It should be a shootout in Monroe as they host App State. The Warhawks have gone over in four of their last six games as their defense has been pretty leaky. They've allowed 30 points or more in three straight and five of their last six. The offense has been humming at times though so they'll contribute to any shootout. The Mountaineers are coming off a tough loss to the Minutemen on the road and are playing their third game away from home over a four week span. Taylor Lamb has been doing good work while the defense has been a bit leaky themselves. Monroe has gone over in 22 of their last 33 including 16 of their last 22 in conference. This one has shootout potential.

Fading Rice continues to be good business for us for the most part this season. The Owls are terrible offensively. The 28 points they scored in their home loss to Louisiana Tech was slightly less then the 29 points they put up combined in the previous three games. The Rice defense is pretty bad especially on the road. UAB has been a fantastic story after bringing football back. They have won three of their last four and will be glad to be home where they've covered every game this season. They like to run the ball which they should in this one while the defense has also been very good for the most part. I'll pretty much always fade Rice especially on the road. 

Florida State has lost two straight and four of their last six as they continue to spiral down the drain. Quotes coming out of Tallahassee have the players wondering about the other players and who they are playing for. The offense is not doing much other then turning the ball over. The defense is also playing poorly despite the fact that they were supposed to be the stronger unit. Syracuse has won two of their last three and played well in Miami in an eight point loss. Eric Dungey threw four INTs in that game, but that's the only contest he's really struggled in. The Orange's defense also makes stops when they need to. It's an underrated unit. The line move scares me because people are almost blindly backing the public team. To me, Florida State is giving up on the season and I think Syracuse adds to their misery.

Purdue's once hot offense has sputtered as of late scoring just 45 points the last three weeks against Wisconsin, Rutgers and Nebraska. They've been struggling at quarterback and are experiencing growing pains under Jeff Brohm. The defense has done good work though especially against the opponents with lesser weapons. Illinois probably qualifies there with all the injuries they've dealt with and their own quarterback inefficiencies. The Illini has shown some improvement on defense themselves and it comes with the linebackers getting healthy. They've gone under in two straight while the Boilers have done so in three straight and five of their last six. I think this one is a lower scoring game with two defenses capable of stepping up.