I really like the spot here for Air Force. The Falcons have had two weeks to prepare for Colorado after a 48-7 win over Colgate in week one. Air Force runs a really solid triple option with Donald Hammond at quarterback. He's been in the system and has some decent weapons around him in the backfield. Reading a lot of the quotes coming from the team that say they are pretty confident entering this one. Mountain West teams have won seven of their last 10 against the PAC-12. Air Force has a pretty solid defense and went 3-1-1 against the spread on the road as an underdog last year. Colorado is 2-0 and is coming off the highly emotional win over rival Nebraska in overtime. They put a lot into this game and received a ton of accolades for the victory. Really if you break it down, this team wants to throw it and throw it some more with Montez and Laviska Shenault. The Buffaloes have a road trip to Arizona State up next. I think if they aren't ready, the road team can win this one outright. Give me the Air Force. 

I isolated this play all the way in the offseason because it's the perfect sandwich to take advantage involving Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane lost a very physical 28-7 game on the road against Michigan State. Tulsa had a whopping -73 net rushing yards and 153 pass yards in the loss. Their defense wasn't terrible, but a lot of that was because of the milquetoast playcalling of Sparty. Tulsa has got a massive game next week at home against in-state rival Oklahoma State. It's their first home game of the season and they don't get the Cowboys at home very often. In between these two games is a west coast road trip to play San Jose State. The Golden Hurricane have lost 13 straight road games and have been a road favorite just six times since Philip Montgomery has taken over with a record of 3-3 against the spread. 

San Jose State is coming off a 35-18 home win over Northern Colorado. Josh Love accounted for three touchdowns in the win and he's a pretty good quarterback. On defense Ethan Aguayo had 20 tackles and a sack. There's some confidence on this sideline as they lost their FCS game last year to UC Davis. The last three years San Jose State is 6-4-1 against the spread as a home underdog. They return 13 starters and had a few close losses at home. The last time these two played was back in 2016 when Tulsa won 45-10. I just think this is an awful spot for the Golden Hurricane and like the home team to cover this one with the small chance of an outright win. 

I'll start this off by saying that I despise Miami and think the college football world is really thirsty hoping they'll return. The Canes are coming off a tough 24-20 loss to Florida in which they were under siege all night. When given time Jarren Williams looked good getting Osborn and Brevin Jordan going. If the OL can give him time then I think they'll return to form. The defense had a horrible time tackling, but this could be the best linebacking unit in college football with Quarterman and Pinckney. Last year the Canes smoked UNC 47-10 at home. The Tar Heels are coming off a really feel good win over South Carolina in front of the public in Charlotte. I still don't think Mack Brown was a great hire, but for one week, there's a lot of positivity surrounding this program. Quite simply, I just think Miami is better and people are overreacting to one week's worth of results. Give me the road team's moneyline.

Texas Tech won game one 45-10 over Montana State in a contest that saw the Red Raiders find some rare defensive success. The team gave up over 30 points per game last year and only have six starters back. It's the offense with Alan Bowman that kept things going. Matt Wells came over from Utah State and he wants things to go massively uptempo. For some perspective, in games as massive favorites last year, Texas Tech put up 77 on Lamar and 48 on Kansas. This offense hums no matter who the opponent is. UTEP beat Houston Baptist 36-34 in week one. The Miners scored over 30 points twice last year and while it was an FCS opponent, that's still a good effort. Treyvon Hughes ran for a career high 144 yards and Brandon Jones looked better then he did last year. The defense was atrocious against HBU with the secondary getting crushed and the pretty much no pass rush. The worry here is that UTEP does nothing on the scoreboard other then take up time of possession. I think the Red Raiders can approach 60 points in this one because they are talking about going even faster then last week. TT has gone over in six of their last nine home games with a total of 63 or more. I'll take a shot that this is a 52-20 type game. 

Last week I said that I wanted to watch the FIU/Tulane game to see for future bets and I was highly disappointed by the Golden Panthers effort. They lost 42-14 to the Green Wave in a contest that saw both sides struggle. I've got to expect better things from James Morgan and his wealth of weapons. I think Maurice Alexander is a nice complementary piece with Austin Maloney as well, but there were way too many dropped passes. The defense returned eight starters, but didn't do much to slow down Tulane. Last year these two teams played a 38-17 game in Kentucky with the squad out of Florida getting the win. 

Western Kentucky lost 35-28 to Central Arkansas and that disappointed me as well as I like the Toppers this season. Steven Duncan had a good start with a couple of touchdown passes, but then he had some awful interceptions. I've got to think that if he struggles again then Ty Storey has to come in as the Arkansas transfer is rather talented. This defense is pretty porous and we saw them struggle last year at times in conference. I think we see the real FIU team and this one is a shootout.

Furman hits the road to take on the biggest upset winner from week one in Georgia State. The Paladins are coming off a 46-13 win over Charleston Southern last time out. They ran the ball really well and didn't need to throw it much with Grainger under center. The whole offensive line is back and so are several of the backs. Furman has GSU and Virginia Tech in back-to-back weeks. Last year the Paladins lost 48-7 to Clemson in their only FBS game, but of course this is completely different. It was fun watching Ellington under center for the Panthers. The offense found it's stride and the defense made just enough stops. Remember, this team went 2-10 last year and barely beat it's FCS opponent Kennesaw State 24-10. Georgia State has been a home favorite just 12 times the last ten seasons and have covered just four of those games. I think this is a classic case of a team who can't handle success. They are yapping way too much about their win over Tennessee. The Panthers may win but as long as this stays above a touchdown or near it, I'm in on the underdog. 

This is a bit of a contrarian play. Everyone saw what Louisville did on Monday night against Notre Dame, but anyone can get up when the Fighting Irish come to their school. After the really hot start, the Cardinals cooled off tremendously. Yes, Jawon Pass has talent and can move the ball with his legs, but Rome wasn't built in a day. Last year, this team went 2-10 and beat their FCS opponent Indiana State 31-7 as a 41 point favorite. This team covered just once against the spread in 2018. Eastern Kentucky last year lost to Marshall 32-16 and Bowling Green 42-35 in two close FBS games. This year they started out with a big 53-7 win over Valparaiso. The team racked up over 300 yards of rushing in that one and played some solid defense as well. Conor Blount was under center for some of this and he came from Oregon State. Meanwhile, the running backs are led by Daryl McCleskey and some FBS transfers as well. The Colonels were fifth in FCS football with 19 interceptions last year. Short week for the Cardinals and one where they have to focus up for a lesser opponent. Give me the team who can make them work for it as an around three touchdown underdog. 

Kent State is highly unimpressive and is 0-1 after losing 30-7 at Arizona State last weekend. Woody Barrett has some talent under center, but the question is who will he throw to. The defense has six starters back and should be competitive in this one. Last year in their FCS game they beat Howard 54-14 but we saw what the Bison did against Maryland this season. Kennesaw State won 59-0 last week against a team called Point University out of Georgia. They are a level or two below so the rout was expected in this one. Last year they went 11-2 putting up over 40 points while holding opponents to 15.4 per contest. The offense is undergoing quite the rebuild with Chandler Burks leaving as quarterback. The defense has almost everyone back and they'll force a lot of three and outs potentially. KSU will try to play ball control and reduce the possessions. Last year, this team lost 24-20 at Georgia State. I could see a similar score although the Owls could win on the road.

This is a situational play for me as I really don't love Charleston Southern, but the circumstances surrounding the Gamecocks make this worth a look. South Carolina lost 24-20 to North Carolina and then lost Jake Bentley as well. Ryan Hilinski is going to take over and he's a little raw. This means they may rely on the backfield featuring Rico Dowdle and Tavien Feaster. They might play this one a bit close to the vest because Alabama is next at home on the 14th. Last year this team beat Coastal Carolina (not an FCS team) 49-15 and Chattanooga 49-9 before their matchup with Clemson. South Carolina's defense is pretty strong so that's a concern, but this really seems like a run out the clock situation. CSU lost 46-13 to Furman and that's one of the better FCS teams. Last year they went 5-6 and hired Autry Denson the former Notre Dame running back. He's installing the Air Raid offense and they've got some decent talent to run it. I really feel like if we can get 10-13 points from the underdog, then this one should cover. 

Norfolk State has a top 10 pass defense in the FCS led by senior safeties Bobby Price and Nhyre Quinerly. This team won just four games last year, but they were really close to getting a few more wins. NSU goes as Juwan Carter goes though and he threw for the fourth most yards in program history last season. It's a worry that a lot of his weapons are relatively new but, they are a talented group. They need to get things going on the ground to keep the pressure off Carter though and that's on Aaron Savage. ODU has so many questions they need to answer in this one after a hideous defense last year. This team gave up almost 36 points per game including 52 to Liberty and 51 to Middle Tennessee. The Monarchs are using three different quarterbacks and pretty much a rebuilt group of skill position guys. They've got a couple of good transfers from Virginia Tech, but there's not a lot to like here. This is Norfolk State's Super Bowl as the two campuses are six miles or so apart. I think the road team can make things interesting here. 

VMI was 1-10 last year, but they had some close calls and actually have some weapons. Reece Udinski threw for 3,000 yards with 20 TDs and only 4 INTs. His top three receivers and top four linemen are back. Now, it's a completely different story for them to be competitive in a game against an FBS school. Last year they lost 66-3 at Toledo week one and 77-14 at ODU to finish the year out. Their defense returns a ton of talent, but will it take the next step against a Marshall team that could win C-USA. The Thundering Herd have 14 starters back including eight on offense. Isaiah Green won the job over Alex Thomson and Green brings some interesting intangibles. He's got to cut down on the turnovers as he had 10 interceptions last year. The defense has some returning talent on all levels, but I don't need VMI to score a lot. Marshall has Boise State week two on a Friday night so focus could be a bit of an issue towards the end of this one. This team won their first game last year 35-28 and beat their FCS opponent 32-16. I think this one gets ugly and we see a ton of points scored. 

SHSU went 6-5 last year under K.C. Keeler and it's looking to improve upon that. The offense wasn't the issue with 30 points per game scored. One could point to the defense that struggled to get stops when it was time. The quarterback position comes down to Ty Brock and Eric Schmid. Whomever wins the gig will throw to Nathan Stewart who has had three straight 1,000 yard seasons. The offensive line is a little shaky, but this offense should be able to continue to hum. On defense, nine starters are back led by Erick Fowler up front. 11 of the team's top 13 tacklers return. They've picked up a couple of impact transfers in Toneil Carter from Texas and Trace Mascorro from UTEP. New Mexico went 3-9 last year under Bob Davie and has 10 starters back. They are led by Tevaka Tuioti who was one of three quarterbacks to see time. The Lobos don't have a ton of talent on offense and instead rely on their system to get by. They have to do that because the defense is rather porous. They allowed over 36 points per game last year and have just two starters back. Last year they rolled Incarnate Word 62-30 but I'd say the Bearkats are better. New Mexico went 1-5 at home last season. I think this is too many points and there's a good chance SHSU wins outright.

Eastern Washington went 12-3 last year losing in the conference title game as well as to Washington State and Weber State. The Eagles scored 48 points or more seven times last season. Now they lose Gage Gubrud to transfer as he went to Wazzu as well as Nsimba Webster and Sam McPherson on offense. Eric Barriere is the new signal caller and he's got FBS level talent. He can run and pass and will give defenses fits with his ability. The offensive line should be able to give him plenty of time. The question is who will step up for the big skill position losses. Antoine Custer is a senior who will have to hold off some intriguing options behind him. The defense held opponents to just 16.9 points per game in FCS play because they forced 34 turnovers. The defensive coordinator is gone and two of their leading tacklers as well. Their secondary is really inexperienced but the front seven has some talent. The Huskies will have Jacob Eason under center for this one and he's got to find some weapons to throw to. Myles Gaskin is gone from the backfield. Out wide some of the top weapons are back in Aaron Fuller, Ty Jones and Andre Baccellia. The defense was very strong last year holding teams to 16.4 points per game. Problem is that there's only two starters back so there will be issues on this side of things. Last year they beat North Dakota 45-3 in their only FCS contest. Week two UW has California in a conference game. I don't think there will be a lookahead, but if there is, I think EWU can take advantage. This one could be high scoring.

Utah State went 11-2 last year and their success brought Gary Andersen back to the school for a second stint after Matt Wells moved on to Texas Tech. The Aggies go as Jordan Love goes because they only have two starters back. This team put up incredible numbers last year offensively, but are without a lot of that talent. The leading rusher is Gerold Bright who is pretty solid, but the leading receiver had just under 300 yards receiving last year. The offensive line has a long way to go too. Defensively, the Aggies are led by David Woodward who could be the best linebacker in the conference. There are 7 starters back on a team that held opponents to 22.2 points per contest. They held BYU to 20 points and Hawaii to 17 points on the road last year. Wake Forest went 7-6 in 2018 and have 12 starters back themselves. Jamie Newman was named quarterback after he had nine touchdowns and four INTs last season. His main weapons are Cade Carney at running back and Sage Surratt out wide. This team had a very hot and cold offense in 2018 and I expect more of the same in 2019. Defensively, I expect some improvement from the 33.3 points allowed last year. Upon further inspection, the numbers are skewed because they allowed 56 to Notre Dame, 63 to Clemson and 41 to Syracuse. These two played in Winston-Salem back in 2017 with the Demon Deacons winning 46-10. I don't expect either side to match that score in 2019. I think this total is a little high. The numbers skew to the over for the Aggies, but there will be some offensive growing pains. Give me the under. 

It's amazing how far Army has come since going 2-10 in 2015. They are over three touchdown favorites against a horrific Rice team to open up the college football season and I'm not batting an eye at it. The Black Knights have seven starters back on offense and four back on defense. The offense figures to be stong with Kelvin Hopkins under center and Connor Slomka and Kell Walker in the backfield. Usually, I don't like to back the triple option teams when there's extra time to prepare for it because teams look good against it, but this is a mismatch. Last year Army lost 34-14 to Duke in week one. They beat Rice on the road back in 2017 49-12 in a game that was 35-0 at halftime. The Owls went 2-11 last year and return six starters on each side of the ball. Their quarterback situation stinks and so does their offensive line. This team doesn't score a ton and has a leaky defense too. Last year they lost by 14, 18, 32, 19, 24, 15 and 32 on the road. Army has Michigan in week two but this is one of those schools that doesn't do the lookahead thing. They are a focused bunch and should be able to blow out this Rice team. Rice has covered just three of their last nine non-conference games.

The Jackrabbits went 10-3 last year in the Missouri Valley. Two of those losses came to the eventual national champion North Dakota State. This team lost their quarterback Taryn Christion which is a massive concern, but there are some options to replace him. Redshirt freshman J'Bore Gibbs is going to get first crack and he's got a new coordinator in Jason Eck who was the team's offensive line coach. There are a ton of weapons with pretty much all of the skill positions back outside of Isaac Wallace. Pierre Strong Jr and Cade Johnson are two of the best. The other concern on offense is the offensive line which has a few guys they have to replace. On defense, there's a new coordinator as well, but the front seven is strong. Get to know the names Ryan Earith and Krockett Krollikowski. This side of the ball has issues in the secondary with just one returning starter. Luckily Minnesota's offense is more predicated on the run game with Mohamed Ibrahim and Rodney Smith among others. Under center will be Tanner Morgan who had nine touchdowns and six interceptions for the Golden Gophers. The defense has seven starters back so they figure to be a stiff challenge for the Jackrabbits to move the ball on. Still, this team has some issues and has struggled at times at home. They only beat Fresno and Indiana by 7 points apiece there to go along with a 17 point home loss to Iowa. Last year SDSU's FBS game at Iowa State was cancelled due to weather. I think as long as we get two touchdowns or more, then the underdog is worth a look.

Central Arkansas went 6-5 last year in the Southland Conference. The team averaged 30.5 points per game while giving up 26.1. Last year they opened up the year against Tulsa of the FBS level and lost 38-27. In that game they actually had a 13-7 lead at the end of the first quarter and were able to move the ball on the Golden Hurricane. The Bears have a pair of quarterbacks who threw for over 1,000 yards and a great tandem of running backs in Carlos Blackman and Kierre Crossley. They picked up two wide receiver transfers from Arkansas and have a pretty much intact offensive line. On defense, they are led by Chris Terrell who is a fantastic defensive lineman. Meanwhile, Western Kentucky is led by Tyson Helton who comes over from Tennessee where he was their offensive coordinator. Helton was Sam Darnold's QB coach at USC and is pretty good with offense. The team named Steven Duncan quarterback, but he's going to have a short leash with Arkansas transfer Ty Storey behind him. Duncan is one of 10 offensive starters back and he's got a ton of weapons led by Quin Jernighan and Lucky Jackson at wide receiver. The run game took a bit of a hit when Quinton Baker left the roster, but there's a host of other options. The defense has six starters back, but they allowed nearly 28 points per game. Deangelo Malone is really strong as a defensive lineman, but the linebacking group is a concern. This team knows the talent that the FCS school has as last year they lost 31-28 to Maine as a nine point favorite. There is a conference game in week two, but I think they are focused on this one. I think plenty of points will be scored in a contest that will be back and forth.

Bowling Green last year went 3-9 and has decided to hire Scot Loeffler as their new head coach. This could be the worst hire in college football because he's proven to be a mediocre to poor offensive coordinator everywhere he's gone from Temple to Boston College to Auburn. The Falcons have seven starters back on offense but Jarret Doege was supposed to be under center. He took his talents to West Virginia where he'll play for them. Luckily, Darius Wade came over from Boston College and he lends some credibility to the position. There's some decent talent at some of the skill positions so maybe they can put some points. Defensively, this team is absolutely hideous. Last year they gave up 40 points per game including 58 to Oregon, 45 to Maryland and 44 to Buffalo. The Falcons played Eastern Kentucky of the OVC in 2018 and barely won 42-35. Morgan State went 4-7 last year and they have a new head coach in former Michigan RB Tyrone Wheatley. The Bears beat North Carolina A&T and had four close losses. They have 17 starters back and a new energy with Wheatley as coach. DeAndre Harris and D.J. Golatt are under center and each were able to provide something different. The defense is where the strength is with the top three interception guys and the #2 and #3 tacklers back. Bowling Green is nothing special so why are they three touchdown favorites. I understand the MEAC is nothing special, but come on with this. Give me the underdog.

Robert Morris went 2-9 last year in their first year under Bernard Clark Jr. The offense averaged just under 25 points per game and allowed nearly 44. They lost 49-46 to Bryant and 40-39 to Eastern Kentucky who is a really good squad in the OVC. The Colonels have nine starters back on offense and eight on defense so things could be looking up for them. One of the guys back on O is Matthew Gonzalez who is one of the best FCS tight ends in the country. The offensive line has four guys to rely on with Terence Stephens running the ball for 831 yards. The issues come on defense as we said. Last year, RMU did not play any FBS opponents, but lost 73-7 on the road to James Madison on a Thursday night. On the other side you've got a Buffalo team with just eight starters back total. The Bulls are without all-world QB Tyree Jackson as well as WRs Anthony Johnson and KJ Osborn who transferred to Miami. Matt Myers will be the new quarterback and it looks like he'll be without leading receiver Antonio Nunn who had 26 catches last year. The team will rely on RB Jaret Patterson and Kevin Marks who combined for nearly 2,000 yards rushing between the two of them. This side of the ball has a lot of rebuilding to do. The defense loses Khalil Hodge and has just one returning starter on each level. To me, this seems like a lot of points. Last year a better Bulls team was a 44 point favorite against Delaware State and they only won 48-10. Yes, RMU is no great shakes, but I really think that they can be semi-competitive. Give me the almost seven touchdowns with the underdog.

Virginia Tech needs this game to get into a bowl game to extend their streak. The Hokies poured a lot of emotion into last week against their rival Virginia and picked up an overtime win. Now they have to get ready for a Marshall team that has basically been told that they are sacrificial lambs for Virginia Tech. This is a Thundering Herd team with a good defense and a competent enough offense to make things interesting. The Hokies problems weren't masked last week, it's just UVA messed up. I think the Herd can win this game outright so I will take the points. 

Two like minded offenses that want to run means both teams will be somewhat familiar with each other. Long drives means less possessions too. I think this one is an under. 

It's a win and your in scenario for Buffalo who travels to Bowling Green on Friday. The Bulls were embarrassed in Ohio last time out and lost 52-17 to the Bobcats. Now they take on a Bowling Green team whose defense is absolutely horrific against anyone with a pulse. The Falcons did do well against Central Michigan and Akron the last two weeks but before that allowed 35 to Kent State, 49 to Ohio, 42 to Western Michigan and 52 to Toledo. The Bulls had scored 120 points over a three week span before that loss to Ohio. Their defense has been up and down themselves too. I could see Bowling Green putting up some points too. This was a 38-28 game last year. I think Buffalo puts up more then that and we go over the total. 

Lafayette has a chance to make the Sun Belt championship game with wins in their final two contests. They've won four of their last six and done so with a solid offense and a defense that makes stops when it has to. They've scored 36, 47 and 66 in their last three games as they rely on a ground game. The good news is Trey Ragas will be available. The Jaguars have lost six of their last seven with the win coming over Alabama State from the FCS level. They've allowed 38 points in each of their last three weeks and have struggled to stop anyone defensively. They seemed to have packed it in so I'll take the team at home that's going to be a lot more motivated.

This was supposed to be for the ACC Coastal and instead it's for respectability and bowl berths. Miami's quarterback play has been brutal and it's killing their offense which has scored 21 points or less in four straight. It's also their fourth road game over a six week span. The best unit on the field will be the defense which has held opponents in check for the most part lately. Virginia Tech's offense has hot and cold spurts but they are lacking the talent to make a difference. The defense has been terrible as of late allowing 30 points or more in three straight. I think this one is an under mostly because I think the home team will struggle to score.

It's been a rough season for the Illini who are 4-6 and are giving up over 500 yards of offense per game. Luckily for them, they are facing an anemic Iowa attack who has struggled to get a lot going. Iowa has lost three straight because they've suddenly sprung a leak against the run. Last time out they had just 10 points against Northwestern. This is a team that also scored just 23 points at home against Maryland. Don't look at Illinois' defensive numbers, because they'd make you want to cry. It's actually the Illini offense that has been pretty good as of late. I don't see that happening on Saturday though. Illinois has gone under in 12 of their last 20 home games. I think this one is a little bit lower scoring.

The Vols have won two straight and are one win away from bowl eligibility. Last week they took advantage of an unfocused Kentucky team in a 24-7 win. Their defense has allowed 37 points the last three weeks and is in good form right now to take on an inconsistent Missouri team. The Tigers have also won two straight, but nearly lost at home to Vanderbilt. The Vols have committed just four turnovers the last six weeks. This is simply a momentum play on a team that should be motivated on Senior Day to get the win against a Tigers team very capable of laying an egg.

Louisiana Monroe is one of the hottest teams in the conference as they enter this one on a four game win streak. The team has road wins at Coastal Carolina and South Alabama in that span. They have an offense led by Caleb Evans that could be very tricky to defend. ASU's defense hasn't been their strong suit at times allowing 47 to Lafayette and 35 to Georgia State. ASU's offense will stress the Warhawks. This is when Monroe shines as they've won five of their last eight in November. I'll take the underdog in this one with a decent shot to win outright.

Charlotte has lost three of their last four games. The offense has been pretty bad the past few weeks scoring just 49 points over their last four. They haven't been the same since Chris Reynolds left at quarterback. The good thing for the 49ers has been their defense which has held four of their last five opponents to 21 points or less. FIU can clinch their half of the C-USA with two wins. Their offense will be tested against this 49ers group. FIU has put up very good numbers with James Morgan under center. Still, this is a tough road game that I don't think sees a lot of points. Charlotte has gone under in four of their last six.

It's been a rough year for both teams as VMI takes on ODU. The Monarchs have gained some momentum after their huge comeback win last week at home. There won't be a bowl in their future, but the offense should be able to do whatever it wants. VMI's defense has struggled with FCS level opponents and should have issues here too. The Keydets have gone to a spread air raid offense and it's worked for a lot of the season. I think they can put up some points in this one, but the Monarchs will do a lot of the legwork.

Maybe there's a letdown for Northwestern who clinched the Big Ten West Division already. The Wildcats beat Iowa 14-10 last week on the road and that gave them the honor. The Wildcats will be without Jared McGee, Trae Williams and Montre Hartage in the secondary which may hurt against Minnesota. The Golden Gophers have won two of their last three including a 41-10 victory over Purdue last time out. The team has played better defensively since firing their coordinator. Minnesota is 5-1 at home straight up and against the spread. I'll take the chance that Northwestern is a little unfocused and take the home team to win the game.

USF's defense has gone away during the team's three game losing streak. They gave up 57 to Houston, 41 to Tulane and 35 to Cincinnati. The team's offense has dried up a little bit and that won't help against a Temple team that plays well at home. The Owls split the tough two game trip through UCF and Houston with a 52-40 loss to the Golden Knights and a 59-49 win to Houston. Ryquell Armstead had a bunch of touchdowns in that one. He should continue to pop against USF on Saturday. The Owls still have a small chance at winning the division. USF has gone over in 20 of their last 35 games including five straight as an underdog. This one should be a fun one between these two AAC schools.

Baylor is 4-1 at home and is playing for bowl eligibility as TCU comes to town. The Horned Frogs have lost four of their last five games with the offense playing absolutely horribly. This team has scored less then 20 points in five of their last seven. They were a no-show in Morgantown last week falling 47-10 to West Virginia. Baylor has wins over Kansas, Kansas State and Oklahoma State at home. They've been showing some balance on offense and just enough defense to make it work. They have more momentum and more to play for so give me the home team.

Colgate is putting up some incredible numbers defensively this season. They've allowed just 29 points this season with 17 of those coming in week one against Holy Cross. They allowed a TD last week to Lehigh which was the first in 29 quarters of play. Colgate is a lot like Army in that they want to grind clock and run the ball a lot. Grant Breneman is the starting quarterback and he's managed the game very well. James Holland is one of their biggest threats too. I think this game goes very quickly and getting 11 points with a game that has a total in the 30s is good enough for me.

Nevada has won two straight and three of their last five games. The Wolf Pack offense has been getting the ground game going and is playing solid enough defense. Ty Gangi is a very good quarterback and should have his way against Colorado State which has given up 56 at Boise, 30 at San Jose State and 48 at Florida. The Rams allowed 34 points to lowly Wyoming at home last time they took the field. The thing is CSU's offense isn't horrible. They've scored 20 points or more in four straight tilts. Nevada's defense isn't lock down and can give up some points. CSU has gone over in 14 of their last 21 Mountain West games. I think these two can light up the scoreboard.

Rhode Island is relevant in college football now as their offense is putting up over 30 points per game. The problems have come on the defensive side where they allow nearly 27. Any time they've faced a tough offense, they have struggled giving up 56 to UConn whose offense is good compared to an FCS school, 38 to Maine and 52 to Stony Brook. JaJuan Lawson is healthy now so that should be able to help their offense improve a bit as he's been really good under center. JMU is coming off a really frustrating 35-24 loss to New Hampshire where they had six turnovers and couldn't make key defensive stops. This offense is capable of so much more especially since they had a stretch where they scored 187 points over three weeks. It's the final home game of the regular season and a lot is still at stake. I think we're due for a Dukes offensive explosion and this one sails over the total with JMU potentially providing all the points. 

Kentucky is coming off a 34-17 loss to Georgia last week and now their hopes are dashed for the SEC East title. In that game they struggled to get the run going and allowed UGA to rush for over 300 yards. Now they have to head to Knoxville to take on a Tennessee team that only beat lowly Charlotte 14-3. The Vols offense has been pretty pitiful lately, but their defense has shown some flashes. The secondary has played well meaning they can stack the box on Benny Snell. A lot of this play is because I just don't think the Wildcats will be 100% focused for this one. There has to be some sort of letdown after playing so poorly in their big game. I think the home team could get the win outright.

Furman is 4-4 on the season with an offense that is heavily run based. They are putting up just under 24 points per game as a unit, but are allowing nearly 30. They are getting gashed allowing over 400 yards per contest. Clemson put up 48 on them, Elon 45, Western Carolina and Samford each racked up 38 points apiece. They've won four of their last five, but I think they'll struggle in this one. The Paladins have had a healthy stretch of home games with just one road contest since September 29th. VMI has just one win and it came last week against Tusculum 20-11. Before that they lost by 7 at Chattanooga and by 2 at home to The Citadel. This team is throwing the ball better in the air raid offense and should cause some problems for the Paladins through the air. The defense is getting a little bit better but is a concern. I think this one is a one score game so we'll take the dog. 

The Wahoos take a break from ACC play to host Liberty on Saturday. UVA had an extra day to prepare for this one after the loss to Pitt last week. The defense struggled with the Panthers run game and didn't move the ball very well on offense either. Still, they get an opponent to should allow them to run their offense easily. Liberty allows 38.2 points per game and 524.5 yards. Their offense is actually pretty good and could get some points on the UVA defense that lost Mandy Alonso and Malcolm Cook as well as potentially one or more defensive backs. UVA is 7-2 against the spread this season, but I think the over could be worth a look. I think we see something in the neighborhood of 47-20 maybe. The Flames gave up 41 to Idaho State so I expect UVA to potentially get to 50. Take the over.

This game is the classic case of a low total and high point underdog. William and Mary has had a season to forget so far as they've won just three games in Jimmye Laycock's final year. This team is coming off a 21-10 loss at Rhode Island which was a really good effort by the defense. They are coming off the bye week and figure to be pretty healthy for this one on both sides of the ball. Plus, a late bye sometimes helps teams re-focus and get ready for the stretch run especially when coach has just two games left. Villanova's year hasn't been that much better going 4-5 overall. They are coming off a 45-21 win over Richmond in which the Spiders basically handed the game with turnovers and poor play. Before that the Wildcats had been shut out twice in a row by James Madison and lowly New Hampshire. Nova's offense is highly unimaginative and shouldn't really scare anyone. I think in a game that's expecting to see so few points, that the underdog is worth a look. 

I've made some money with Charlotte as of late considering the 49ers have covered four straight contests. They are stopping the run at a great clip in Conference USA holding opponents to just 81.7 yards per contest. Their problem has been that the offense has struggled scoring just 36 points the last three weeks combined. This team is coming off a tough loss at Tennessee in which they held the Vols to 14 points and 192 yards of total offense. Marshall has won three of their last five with a solid defense and just enough offense. They are coming off a two point loss at Southern Miss and have already lost to NC State and Middle Tennessee at home. These two have played close games with the 49ers winning at Marshall in 2016 and losing 14-3 at home as a 14 point underdog in 2017. Charlotte has a chance at a bowl berth with two more wins so they'll be highly motivated. I think they keep things close in this one.

It's the basketball rivalry as Duke hosts North Carolina. The Blue Devils snapped a losing skid by beating Miami in Coral Gables 20-12 last time out. The team has allowed almost 800 rushing yards the last two games as the defense experiences more and more injuries. Joe Giles-Harris is the latest who most likely will not be out there for the Blue Devils. Their offense has been putting up good numbers as well. The Tar Heels may have just one win, but they've lost four straight by 10 points or less. Nathan Elliott has been pretty good for the offense, but the defense just hasn't made the stop when it had to. Duke has covered just nine of their last 21 in the ACC. I could see this one being close on Saturday.

It's a long road trip for BYU as they try to snap a losing skid of four of their last five. The Cougars lost a heartbreaker against Boise State last time out and has now scored just 22 points in their last two contests. BYU's defense lost Chris Wilcox at cornerback which will be tough against Andy Isabella who is one of the best WRs in college football. UMass has won two straight beating UConn and Liberty. The team's defense is still pretty bad, but they've gotten some better play as of late. This is the classic case of can a slumping offense find success against a bad defense? UMass won this game in BYU 16-10 last year in a game that they forced four interceptions. I don't know if they'll win, but I think the offense could keep up. I like the home dog in this one.

The Hoosiers have lost four straight and are coming off a very tough loss two weeks ago against Minnesota. Indiana had a bye week last week giving them time to reset everything as they push for a bowl bid. The offense hasn't been the issue although they need to cut down on the turnovers with six straight games of 2 or more. Maryland is coming off a 24-3 loss to Michigan State after dealing with all of the off the field drama. I really think it'll continue to linger giving me another reason to back the home team. Their offense is highly inconsistent and was non-existent in their last road game at Iowa. I think the Hoosiers are worth a look.

NIU's defense should be able to keep Toledo in check and the Huskies offense certainly doesn't scare me all that much.

I've faded Miami whenever I can and it's been profitable so far. They've lost two straight and needed a late comeback to beat FSU at home by one. The team's quarterback play has been pathetic this season and Malik Rosier is under center. This means that teams can focus on their run game. Duke's defense has shown flashes of brilliance all year, but then they give up nearly 500 yards on the ground to Pittsburgh in a 54-45 loss. The Blue Devils have a pretty good offense with Daniel Jones under center. They'll have to be against the Canes who are playing incredible defense. Miami has covered just nine of their last 21 ACC games. They'll either be in for a battle or blow Duke out. I'll bet they don't figure it out this week and take the road team.

App State has had a little extra time to stew after a bad 34-14 loss at Georgia Southern. They are already without Jalin Moore and could be without signal caller Zac Thomas who had a concussion last game. The defense showed some cracks for the first time this season. They are still better then Coastal's D which has been bad all season. Still, they run the ball well and pass it just good enough to keep team's honest. I think this is a lot of points for a team to lay without their #1 RB and potentially their starting QB. Give me the home team as a live dog.

Villanova has been shut out their last two games as they continue to deal with uncertainty at quarterback. The Wildcats just don't have the weapons anymore and it's hurting them. The one thing they do have is a good defense that will keep them in the ballgame if they get a little rest. Richmond is really banged up in certain spots so I can see this being a lower scoring game.

For just the sixth time since 1992, Virginia Tech is a home underdog of 3 points or less as they host Boston College. The Hokies were blasted in their last two games at Lane Stadium falling 45-23 to Notre Dame and 49-28 to Georgia Tech. The offense isn't working and the defense has been allowing large chunks of yards. The Eagles have won two straight and three of their last five. BC has a road win at Wake Forest on the docket, but has played just three games outside of Chestnut Hill all year. AJ Dillon is back and the Eagles are moving the ball better with him in. Anthony Brown is not a bad game manager for Steve Addazio's bunch. The defense has been good although they did allow over 30 points to the Demon Deacons and Temple Owls. I'll take the points with the home team. I think they bounce back in this one. They have won 18 of their last 26 in this series and that trend continues Saturday. 

Cincinnati has lost a bit of their shine after falling to the Owls two weeks ago for their first loss of the season. They followed that up with a 26-20 victory at SMU in which they had three turnovers and nearly lost in overtime. Their defense has been pretty strong this season, but they really haven't been challenged a ton either. Navy has lost five straight, but it looks like the triple option has improved a little over the past few weeks. Granted they were all in losses, but to quality opponents Temple, Houston and Notre Dame. Navy's defense is bad and that scares me tremendously. The Bearcats have covered just four of their last 16 at home and 12 of their last 32 overall. Navy has covered nine of their last 10 as a road underdog of 10.5 to 14 points. I think they are worth a look here too.

This has not been a great season for FSU who will need a late miracle to get to bowl eligibility. They are coming off a 59-10 loss to Clemson in which they were barely competitive. There is a question mark at quarterback, but I think some people would love to see James Blackmon play. Their defense has played pretty well at times especially against the pass which is where NC State wants to beat you. One has to wonder what NC State's mindset is like after two losses that have taken away their chances of winning the ACC Atlantic. The offense worked in Syracuse, but the defense has had some issues especially against the pass. These two have played a couple of close games as of late with the road team winning outright. I dont see that happening, but I think the Noles keep it close. 

The Flames have won three of their last four and are coming off a bye week. The team already has a win at New Mexico and has the better offense in this one. They should be really healthy with extra time to try and fix their leaky defense. UMass has lost three of four and five of their last seven. They are coming off a 22-17 road win at UConn which is a rare defensive struggle for them. The Minutemen allowed 58 to Ohio and South Florida and 63 to FIU. There isn't much homefield advantage for UMass so I think Liberty can get the win.

ULM has had two weeks to prepare for the triple option of Georgia Southern. The Warhawks have won two straight and have the offense to keep up if this game becomes a shootout. Their defense has been bad against the run, but they've also had three performances of 150 rushing yards allowed or less. Georgia Southern is in the ultimate sandwich with home games against App State and Troy before and after this. They are flying high after beating the rival Mountaineers and will get a winner take all game against Troy next. Last year GSU won this game 23-21 at home. They've covered just seven of their last 17 on the road. I think the home team is worth a look here. 

This line befuddles me a bit as the Orange are getting money from the public. Yes, my alma mater beat NC State and is 6-2 and nationally ranked. All of those accolades though make me worried they will be unfocused for this one. Their defense has been horrific as of late getting gashed by North Carolina and NC State the last two weeks. They struggle against the pass with all the injuries suffered and the Demon Deacons can exploit that with Greg Dortch. Yes, Wake only went 2-3 during their early five game homestand, but I think they are in better form right now. The run game beat up Louisville last week. These two teams played a 64-43 game in Syracuse last season in which Wake Forest put up over 700 yards of offense. Syracuse has been a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points just once the last three years and that came in week one against Western Michigan. I think Wake covers this one and has a shot to win the game outright.

It's been a weird week for the Terps who had DJ Durkin back at coach and then saw him leave. There were also reportedly fights in practice and players who walked out of meetings. In comes MSU with their stout defense and a little bit of confidence after beating Purdue. Maryland wants to run and Sparty stops it really well. There's not a ton of analysis needed here. Yes, it's on the road, but I think Michigan State gets the win against an unfocused Terps team.

The Orange nearly lost at home to the Heels last week, but pulled it out and is one win away from bowl eligibility. You could potentially make the case that this game is for the second best team in the conference behind Clemson. NC State got blasted last week so who knows what their mindset is for this one after that beating. They could be flat to start or fired up. Eric Dungey got pulled last week for Tommy DeVito and there is now a modest qb controversy in Syracuse. I think Coach Babers can use both to his advantage though. The Orange's defense sprung some leaks so that's a concern against the Pack. NC State has not been a road favorite of 3 points or less the past three seasons. I'm going to back the home team and hope they get up for this one. 

Air Force's triple option should give Boise State some fits in this one as the Broncos have struggled at times on the road. The Broncos offense has been very hot and cold while the Falcons have been surprisingly good against the run. I think this is a large number and the home team has a shot to cover it. 

This year's version of the 49ers are 3-4 on the season with home wins over Fordham, ODU and Western Kentucky. Their offense is running the ball well and doing just enough through the air to make the offense work at times. They are actually really good on defense especially against the run where they are ranked sixth. The secondary has held five straight opponents to 215 yards passing or less. In comes Southern Miss whose offense has been underwhelming to say the least. They don't run the ball very well, but play really good defense. I wonder if the Golden Eagles have one eye on the home game against Marshall next week. I think the home team is a live dog in this one.

The Wahoos surprised me last week in their victory at Duke. The handicapper in me said that they were going to struggle with focus after the huge win over Miami. In the victory, the run game continued to be fantastic while the defense clamped down on the Blue Devils. In comes UNC which is fresh off two close losses to Virginia Tech and Syracuse. The quarterback play has been a little bit better as of late but there's so much inconsistency with this team. Some weeks the run game works, but others it struggles terribly. The defense plays well against the run while other weeks the Heels shut down the pass. Last year the Hoos won 20-14 in Chapel Hill in an ugly contest that saw Carolina put up 46 yards passing and throw three INTs. UVa has been a home favorite of between 7.5 to 10 points just 10 times since 1992 and has covered only three of them. I don't know how this will be taken but I trust the Wahoos to win this game but not to cover. UNC will either fall apart after the two close losses or keep some semblance of momentum and keep it close.

Two teams coming off different weeks play in East Lansing as MSU hosts Purdue. Sparty put up 94 yards of offense in a 21-7 loss to Michigan. The team now has lost to Arizona State, Northwestern and the Wolverines. Their defense has been very good as of late and will have to continue to do that against a Boilers team coming off a win over Ohio State. You can beat Purdue through the air. This is also their third road game over their last four and they got plenty of attention this week. The offense is clicking, but for the most part it was against easy defenses outside of OSU. I think order gets restored a bit and the home team wins. 

In a game that won't make any sort of ripples on the college football landscape, UConn hosts UMass. The Huskies are allowing almost 700 yards of offense although they nearly knocked off South Florida last week. The numbers are really ugly, but they are running into a UMass team. David Pindell makes some mistakes but I think he'll find some holes against the Minutemen. UMass has allowed 30 points or more in six of their seven games with Coastal Carolina scoring only 24. The over is probably worth a look, but there's no reason for UMass to be favored on the road over almost anyone this season.

In a game that won't make any sort of ripples on the college football landscape, UConn hosts UMass. The Huskies are allowing almost 700 yards of offense although they nearly knocked off South Florida last week. The numbers are really ugly, but they are running into a UMass team. David Pindell makes some mistakes but I think he'll find some holes against the Minutemen. UMass has allowed 30 points or more in six of their seven games with Coastal Carolina scoring only 24. The over is probably worth a look, but there's no reason for UMass to be favored on the road over almost anyone this season.

Alex Hornibrook is in concussion protocol for the Badgers as they get ready for a trip to Northwestern. On the road, Wisky scored 28 at Iowa and 13 at Michigan. This is an inconsistent offense that has looked good in two of their last three weeks, but that was at home. Northwestern's defense has been very good against the run for the most part and has held all but two of their opponents to 27 points or less. Their problem is the offense which hasn't been the same since losing their top running back. The Wildcats will run into some resistance with the Badgers allowing 24 points or less to everyone but Michigan. NW has gone under in 13 of their last 18 home games and 18 of their last 33 overall. I think this one is an under.

Two really good defenses in this one with one really good offense and another that is struggling to find consistency. Clemson has been steamrolling opponents and really has no reason to lookahead. This is Florida State's Super Bowl since they really have no shot in the conference. I think this one is a bit lower scoring. 

FIU is 4-2 on the season and should pick up another win on Saturday. The Golden Panthers have beaten up really bad teams at home taking UMass by 39 and UAPB by 46. Both of those teams might be comparable to Rice right now who is bringing in a backup quarterback for this one. The Owls have road losses of 14 at Hawaii, 18 at Southern Miss and 32 at Wake Forest. They've scored just three points in two home games against UTSA and UAB. Rice's defense is pretty bad and should struggle with the balance that the Owls bring. FIU has covered 15 of their last 25 Saturday's including five of six this season. I think this one is a rout in Florida.

I can't believe I'm going back to ODU after they've disappointed me so much this season. The Monarchs only win came against Virginia Tech with the rest of the games being pretty awful. It's because of a porous defense and an offense that is really inconsistent. You could use those same terms on Western Kentucky who is 1-5 with their only win coming against Ball State. This team can't run it well and has had six turnovers in their last two games as the quarterbacks have been bad. You can run on WKU and some teams have passed on them as well. I know it's a road game, but I'll take one last shot with the Monarchs in this one.

UCF needed quite a lot to pick up a comeback victory over Memphis last week. They won 31-30 over the Tigers in a game that saw them struggle on defense yet make the plays needed to win the game late. That was the lowest point total of the season for UCF and I expect that to change in this one because ECU is one of the worst defenses in college football. They allowed 42 to Houston and 49 to Temple the last two weeks. ECU's offense is nothing special, but outside of two road games, they've been competent at home. I think we get a semi-unfocused effort from the road team who will probably expect to coast in this one. I think it becomes a bit of a shootout and UCF wins this thing by 3 or 4 scores late.

New Mexico State allowed almost 800 yards of offense last week against ULL in a 66-38 loss. They have been gashed by the run which means that Georgia Southern should run wild after struggling against Texas State. The Aggies offense has held it's own as of late and should be able to contribute to this total. They've gone over in five of their last six. Georgia Southern has scored 30 points or more and has a huge home game against App State ahead of them. I think they give up some points along the way and we get a mini shootout in this one. GSU won't be focused and could struggle early. I think this one is an over. 

I'm going to play a spot here in this one as Appalachian State comes off an emotional 35-9 win at Arkansas State and is staring at a rivalry game at Georgia Southern five days later. App State lost running back Jalin Moore last time out to an injury for the rest of the season so they'll have to find some other backs to take over. ASU has not played too many great offenses this season so their defensive stats look really good. Lafayette has won two straight scoring 108 points on Texas State and New Mexico State. Their defense isn't very good so I'm a bit worried about that, but I think they could keep up somewhat in a shootout. App State has covered just one of their last six as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points. I think the road team is worth a look here.

This one relies heavily on Brent Stockstill not playing for the Blue Raiders. He is the guy who stirs the drink in Murfreesboro. They lost at FIU last week 24-21 as the offense just failed to move the ball. MTSU's defense is alright, but you can run on them. Charlotte isn't great, but they are coming off a convincing 40-14 home win over Western Kentucky. This team has wins over Fordham and ODU and it's because of a really good run game and a rush defense that clamps down on it's opponents. The 49ers actually have a decent defense which will surprise some folks considering their record. MTSU has covered just 14 of their last 32 games. I think they struggle to win this one without Stockstill.

Cincinnati is one of the few teams left that are undefeated in college football. The problem is that they've really beaten almost no one of substance. The road trip to UCLA was impressive at the time, but we've realized the Bruins aren't very good. They then beat Miami-Ohio, Alabama A&M, Ohio, UConn and Tulane. The offense wants to run the ball and have Desmond Kidder manage everything else. Defensively they put up good numbers, but once again how good have they been. On the other side you have Temple who has won four of their last five and is doing so with their trademark defense and solid passing from Anthony Russo. Ventell Bryant is very good outside and Ryquell Armstead figures to be healthy for this one. I think Temple's balance will vex the Bearcats and the Owls defense will keep this game close. They've held five straight opponents to less then 200 yards passing. Temple has dominated this series a bit as of late. I think they get the win on Saturday.

Cole McDonald is back under center and Hawaii's offense is on the road at BYU. They beat a good Wyoming team 17-13 last week without him. The team's only loss came at Army back on 9/15 28-21 in a game they probably should have won. Hawaii's rush defense is pretty strong and the secondary is too. BYU has lost two straight and is making a change at quarterback with Tanner Mangum leaving. Their wins were at Arizona and Wisconsin and over McNeese State. BYU's rushing defense isn't great so maybe Hawaii can take advantage of that. BYU has covered just five of their last 15 home games. I like Hawaii to keep it close in this one 

The rare non Virginia Tech night game in Charlottesville as UVA hosts Miami off the bye week. I think it came at a good time for the Hoos who had two weeks to stew after losing to NC State. Hopefully they come back a little healthier, a little wiser and more focused. I actually made UVA my bet of the year a couple of years ago at home in a game I figured the Canes would come in unfocused and they did and lost. I'm glad Miami won their game at home against Florida State as that may get them unfocused for this one. I think the "U" is highly overrated although not quite as much with N'Kosi Perry under center. Miami's wins aren't exactly over great competition this season. They've been really good against the pass, but outside of Toledo, they haven't faced anyone who will stress them there. If you can force them to become one dimensional on offense, then that side of the ball will flounder. UVA has covered nine of their last 15 in this series. I'm calling my shot and taking them to win outright so any sort of points we're getting is a gift.

The Roadrunners have won three straight after a three game losing streak to start the year out. They have done it with solid defense and just enough offense....and I mean just enough. They have failed to get to 300 yards total this season, but have beaten Texas State and UTEP at home. The defense has been good for the most part against the run and as of late has clamped down on the pass. Now, the offenses they have faced during this streak aren't great, but I think Louisiana Tech's inconsistency will hurt them. The Bulldogs have lost two of their last three and are coming off a headscratching 28-7 home loss to UAB as a seven point underdog. Louisiana Tech is playing their fourth road game of six so far. This one will be lower scoring. I think the home team is worth a look.

I think this is a bit of an overreaction. Richmond's offense is good but they can be beaten on defense. Albany's offense moves through the air and has a decent running back. Spiders were in somewhat of a similar situation a couple of weeks ago playing at St. Francis of PA and they needed a late TD to win this game. I think the home dog is worth a look in this one.

VMI is allowing over 50 points per game, but their offense has started to rock and roll under the new spread system. Samford can score as evidenced by last week and their defense is a little leaky. I think this one is an over.

Colorado State is 2-4 on the season with wins over Arkansas and San Jose State. The Rams have shown plenty of offensive inconsistency with three games of 20 points scored or less. CSU's defense has been gashed by the run with four teams rushing for over 200 yards with a fifth team putting up 199. New Mexico is coming off a 50-14 win over UNLV and is playing their fourth road game over a six week span. They also have a win at New Mexico State and have put up 40 points or more in all but one of their matchups. New Mexico's backup quarterback has been very impressive. The defense has played well in spurts this season. CSU has covered just two of their six contests. I don't think they are that impressive so give me the road team. 

Northern Illinois has a very anemic offense that averages just 17.7 points and 278.3 yards per game. The good thing is that their defense has been awesome especially at home. They held Utah to 17 and Central Michigan to 16 there. NIU's offense has a season high of 26 points with three other efforts of less then 20. Ohio's defense has been god awful all year long, but they've also seen several pretty good offenses. I think Ohio could struggle to score especially if their starting QB is not 100%. Ohio has gone under in 13 of their last 18 conference games. NIU has gone under in eight of their last 13 at home. This one is a lower scoring game.

I think we are getting a good price on Navy at home. This is kind of like the week 2 matchup between them and Memphis at home where the Tigers were a favorite of around the same. Navy has lost two straight and is at a low point right now as they lost to Air Force 35-7 in a game that saw them struggle big time. The Middies triple option has worked for the most part this season. Temple has had a mixed bag of results on the road winning at Maryland while losing at BC. They've given up 200 yards rushing to two teams so far this season. Ryquell Armstead is the only rushing threat for the Owls and he's banged up. Navy is 95-57 ATS since 1992 as an underdog and has covered five of their last eight as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. I think this one is close.

The Cardinals are 2-4 this season with wins over Central Connecticut and Kent State. They've been competitive in losses to Notre Dame, Western Kentucky and Northern Illinois as well. Riley Neal and James Gilbert have shown some offensive proficiency, but the issues come on defense where they've either been beaten up by the run or the pass. Central Michigan's only win has come against FCS level Maine and even that was just a 17-5 victory. CMU lost at home to Kansas and is coming off a loss to Buffalo there as well. The Chips have had QB issues with Tommy Lazzaro taking over in week three. He has just four touchdowns to eight interceptions. The team's leading running back is averaging just 2.9 yards per carry and has no touchdowns on the ground. Ball State has covered and won nine of their last 11 games as a road underdog of three points or less. I think the Cardinals are the better team.

The Redhawks scored 31 points over their first three weeks. The last three weeks they've put up 38, 39 and 41 points overall. Gus Ragland is cruising now under center and rushing the ball has gone better. The defense is playing a little better though although they gave up 40 points to Western Michigan in their last home game two weeks ago. Kent State has lost four straight since beating Howard in week two. KSU's offense hasn't been that bad with 50 points the last two weeks. The defense has been that bad especially against the pass. Four straight opponents have put up 280 yards or more through the air. 

Sawyer Smith is taking over for Kaleb Barker under center for a Troy team that is averaging just under 37 points per game and 433 yards per contest. Troy has gone over in five of their six tilts this season. They've been alright on defense this season holding Nebraska to 19 and Florida A&M to 7. Liberty has been rather middling since the season opening win against ODU. Their defense has been gashed since then allowing 38, 47, 43 and 49 points. The 49 came against the highly mediocre New Mexico State Aggies. Liberty's offense can score led by Buckshot Calvert. The team has some run and pass capability. I think this one has shootout potential on Saturday.

This is a big game in the ACC Coastal as Georgia Tech hosts Duke. The Jackets have scored 63 and 66 in their last two games as the triple option is humming. The problem is that before those two contests they lost three straight to USF, Pitt and Clemson. GT's defense is pretty exploitable especially through the air. Duke loves to throw it when they can with Daniel Jones who had an extra week to get healthy. The Blue Devils had the all important extra week to prepare for the triple option. They beat Army 34-14 in week one holding them to just 168 yards on 47 rushes. That's very important when handicapping Georgia Tech games. The Blue Devils defense has been good with their biggest weakness being the pass which Tech won't go after. Duke won this game last year at home 43-20 after losing 38-35 to them in Atlanta in 2016. I will be looking hard at the road team in this one.

Florida has won four straight entering this one against Vanderbilt. The Gators defense has been fantastic this season holding all of their opponents to 27 points or less. The team has been locked in for conference play. They want to run the ball and mix in the pass when they can. Vanderbilt's offense has gone dry since the competition has gotten better. They've scored 20 points or less in three of their last four contests as Shurmur has struggled to get going. There is no Ralph Webb to keep teams honest. The defense has been alright but perhaps we don't get a focused UF effort with Georgia up next. Vandy has gone under in five of their six contests. Florida has gone under in 17 of their last 30 games. I think this one is an under.

Georgia Southern's offense has been rolling outside a trip to Death Valley to take on Clemson. The Eagles have scored 37, 34, 28 and 48 points so far as the triple option has made a triumphant return this year. Their defense has been very good although leaky at times. Arkansas State put up 376 yards passing while Clemson ran for 309 yards. Texas State's only win was against Texas Southern in week two. They have allowed 35, 20, 41, 25 and 42 points so far and allowed Rutgers and Lafayette to rush for over 200 yards. The good thing is that their offense has perked up scoring 21 or more in four straight. This series has seen plenty of unders and money has come in on the under, but I think this one sees more points. I think GSU lets some late touchdowns up in a game that they'll have in hand early.

FAU is trying to bounce back after two straight losses to UCF and MTSU on the road. The Owls offense has been very prolific as of late with 270 rushing yards or more in three straight games. Devin Singletary is getting on track after a really slow start to the season. The team needs to score a ton because their defense is pretty bad and is struggling to stop teams on the ground and through the air. ODU's defense might be worse as they've allowed 28 points or more to everyone. They will have problems slowing down Singletary and Chris Robison. The good thing for the Monarchs is that their offense has perked up as of late. With Blake LaRussa under center they've scored 84 points. ODU has gone over in four of five games this season and FAU has gone over in three of five. Last year Lane Kiffin's bunch scored 58 points. Now the total is that much...give me the over. 

UNLV lost Armani Rogers to injury so Max Gilliam steps in for the Rebels. UNLV has home wins over UTEP and Prairie View with losses to USC and Arkansas State. They want to pound you on the ground as the passing attack is rather anemic. Last week the QB's went 5-for-21 for just 23 yards. UNLV's defense has problems stopping the run so that'll play well with New Mexico who likes to run it. They are on their third QB of the season and a guy who may want to throw it more. They've put up 62, 14, 42 and 43 points so offense shouldn't be an issue. New Mexico's biggest defensive issues seem to come in the secondary who won't be tested as much. UNLV has covered just five of their last 14 home games and four of their last 12 as a favorite. I'll take a shot with the Lobos.

The matchups between the academies used to be huge unders because each team would be playing against their mirror image. Air Force is 1-3 with the win coming in week one against Stony Brook. Their offense has been a mixed bag this season and the defense has struggled against the pass, but that won't be an issue against Navy. 11 of the last 14 matchups have gone under the total including six of the last seven. Last year's game was a 48-45 high scoring affair and that snapped a nice under streak. Navy's offense has worked this season and they've had an extra week to prepare. The defense struggled against Hawaii and SMU but once again it was the pass that did them in for those. I think we see some nice time consuming drives and get back to the under trend.

Akron has played just three games this season as they lost their matchup with Nebraska due to weather and they had their bye already. The Zips have wins over Morgan State and Northwestern and a close loss at Iowa State. Their offense has had some success while the defense has been very strong too. Despite giving up 26 points to ISU, they only allowed 365 yards to the Cyclones. Miami-Ohio is 1-4 with the win coming at Bowling Green 38-23. The Redhawks will be playing their third game over a four week span. They have struggled to stop anyone and have had problems on offense although not as of late. I'm not a huge trends guy but Miami is 3-16 against the spread since 1992 in road games with a total between 45.5 and 49. I think this is a bit of a mismatch so give me the home team.

Bowling Green is consistently one of the worst defenses in football. They've allowed 58, 45, 35, 38 and 63 points so far this season. Toledo has scored over 60 twice against VMI and Nevada. They have a really good group of wide receivers that should have their way with the Falcons. Ironically, most of the damage has been done on the ground against them. Bowling Green's offense is capable of scoring too as they've put up 24, 14, 42, 23 and 17. Toledo's defense has been ridiculously shaky the last few weeks giving up at least 40 to Miami, Nevada and Fresno State. The last two years this game has seen scores of 66-37 and 42-35. I think we could see scores around that.

William and Mary has a poor offense, but Albany has had problems on defense. The Tribe figure to get DeVante Dedmon involved a lot because he's an NFL caliber wide receiver. WM's defense is pretty good too. I know Albany has scored a lot but I don't think that happens in this one. It's a lower total which means getting two touchdowns is a good place to start. I'm taking the Tribe plus the points.

NIU's offense has been very anemic all season and it's put pressure on a very good defense. The Huskies have scored 82 points over five games. Most of those contests were against better teams, but they just don't do a lot well. The passing attack has had 215 yards or less  in each contest. The defense has forced a bunch of turnovers, but has had to be on the field a lot more then they should due to time of possession. Ball State has a good offense that has shown up against weaker opponents Central Connecticut and Kent State. They had issues against Notre Dame, Indiana and Western Kentucky. Ball State has gone under in three of four games while NIU has done so in four of their five. Neither team has impressed me that much and I think this one goes under the total.

Go figure Temple. They started out the year with losses at home to Nova and Buffalo, but then beat Maryland and Tulsa before shooting themselves in the foot against Boston College. Anthony Russo has been under center the past few games and he's as inconsistent as the rest of the team. Russo makes several throws but also has some inconsistent tendencies. On defense, the Owls have been gashed on the ground the past two weeks, but have matched up well through the air. On the other side you have East Carolina who has lost to North Carolina A&T and South Florida. They've played well though since that opening week loss. The Pirates are running it better and getting good production from Holton Ahlers. On defense they've clamped down on the run and have played better against the pass. I think ECU is in better form right now and there's not a great homefield advantage for Temple. I think this one is closer then the spread says.

Last week I wanted to take the over in the Kansas game, but didn't. I'm not making this mistake again. The Jayhawks have been ripped through the air allowing nearly 600 passing yards to Baylor and Oklahoma State. The Jayhawks actually put up 28 points on Oklahoma State at home and have shown pulses at times on offense. West Virginia is going through everyone offensively. They've scored 169 points in four games and should continue that trend. The team did just allow 34 points to Texas Tech. The last two years, this score was 56-34 and 48-21 so I see plenty of points once again. The Jayhawks just won't be able to slow down the Mountaineers. 

The Thundering Herd are 3-1 on the season with the loss coming to NC State at home in week 4. The line has been tumbling down a bit due to the uncertainty of the quarterback Isaiah Green who got hurt last week. If he doesn't play then grad transfer Alex Thomson is under center. He came over from Wagner and got FBS offers before settling in with Marshall. The team has plenty of offensive talent and a very good defense that can bottle up the run. MTSU is coming off an emotional win over FAU at home last Saturday in which it got a late two point conversion to get the win over the Owls. They have lost to Vandy and Georgia on the road and have struggled for much offensive consistency. Their defense isn't that good either as Tennessee-Martin scored 37 on them in week two. MTSU has had great teams in the past and still have been blasted by the Herd. Last year Marshall won 38-10 as two point favorites and 42-17 in 2016 as eight point underdogs. MTSU has covered just four of their last 16 road games. I think this one goes in favor of the home team. 

Arkansas Pine Bluff has had a fascinating season so far. They lost week one to Morehouse 34-30, followed that up with a 55-0 win over Cumberland before getting blasted 90-6 by South Dakota State and 62-13 by Prairie View. The team has a decent quarterback and a good wide receiver but both are banged up and may not play. FIU has shown no mercy in terms of scoring 63 against UMass. They are coming off a 31-17 loss at Miami and have Middle Tennessee next. FIU is getting at least 60 in this one. The question is if the opponent will score at all. 

MTSU is 1-2 to start the season. They've had two weeks to prepare for this one as they finally hit conference play. It's hard to accurately describe the Blue Raiders because they got crushed at Vanderbilt and Georgia and beat UT-Martin as well. The Blue Raiders have a very good passing game that should be able to take advantage of a mediocre FAU secondary. The Raiders defense has struggled at times even against UT-M whom they allowed nearly 500 yards to. FAU's Devin Singletary should get fat and happy against the Blue Raiders. FAU's offense has put up 33, 49 and 36 the last three weeks. Two years ago this game was 77-56 at Murfreesboro and 38-20 at FAU last year. I think this one is an over. 

Texas San Antonio is coming off their first win of the season as they beat Texas State 25-21. UTSA has losses to Arizona State, Baylor and Kansas State so they are pretty tested and proven. The offense has had it's issues, but should be able to move on UTEP who allowed 30 to Northern Arizona, 52 to UNLV and 27 to New Mexico State. The Miners did everything right last week and lost the game because they couldn't execute when it mattered. UTSA won this game by 17 last year on the road and lost to UTEP outright in 2016. They know that this game could be tough and will take it seriously. Give me the home team to get their second win in a row.

This one has the makings of a classic Big 10 game. Michigan has allowed 14.2 points per game and 240.2 yards per contest as well. Northwestern's offense took a major hit once Larkin went down. The Wildcats put up only 7 points on Duke and have had a bye week to prepare. Their defense hasn't been too bad although they need to get more pressure up front. Michigan's offense put up 49, 45, 56 the last three weeks at home against some weak defenses. I think they find things a little more difficult on the road against a team with extra time to prepare. Northwestern has gone under in 12 of their last 16 at home and 16 of their last 29 overall.