My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Tennessee Titans (1:00 EST).

The 10-4 LA Rams are in Tennessee to take on the 8-6 Titans and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. 

LA is on the cusp of clinching the NFC West after last week’s 42-7 win over the Seahawks, while Tennessee fell 25-23 at San Francisco last Sunday. 

Rams’ QB Jared Goff was 14 of 21 for 120 yards, two TD’s and an INT last week, while RB Todd Gurley had 152 rushing yards on 21 carries, to go along with three major scores. 

Perhaps what was even more impressive than the offense, was LA’s defense. which limited Seattle to just 11 first downs and 149 total yards. 

Tennessee though will be desperate here after letting a late lead slip away in last week’s loss to the lowly 49ers. QB Marcus Mariota was 23 of 33 for 241 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s. RB DeMarco Murray had 59 yards.

The Titans gave up 414 total yards last week, but I think they’ll bounce back with a much better effort here. Tennessee will need some luck to win the division, but it won’t be rolling over and quitting and still needs to secure a Wild card.

Note that the Rams are just 1-3 ATS in their last four after holding their previous opponent to a TD or less, while Tennessee is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 non-conference contests.

I think LA takes the foot off the gas here and as mentioned off the top, I look for the hungry Titans to step up and take advantage. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Carolina Panthers (1:00 EST).

The 4-10 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in Carolina to take on the 10-4 Panthers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

The Bucs come in off a crushing 24-21 loss to Atlanta on Monday night, a setback which officially ends their playoff hopes. Carolina enters off a 31-24 home win over Green Bay last week.

When these teams met in Week 8, it was Carolina that scored the relatively simple 17-3 victory. Panthers’ QB Cam Newton had 154 yards and a TD in that one, while Bucs’ QB Jameis Winston had 210 passing yards, no TD’s and two INT’s. 

Tampa owns the league’s worst pass defense, which clearly doesn’t bode well against Newton and company. The Panthers have also been tough overall defensively, allowing just 307.9 YPG, ranked fifth in the league. 

Additionally I’ll point out that Tampa is just 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight on the road, while Carolina is 4-0 ATS in its last four in front of the home town crowd.

Carolina has averaged 32 points over its last five games and I anticipate it having no issues at all moving the ball today against this dejected Bucs defense. 

Lay the points with confidence, play on Carolina.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on San Diego State (3:30 EST).

The 10-2 San Diego State Aztecs get ready to battle the 8-3 Army Black Knights on Saturday afternoon in the Armed Forces Bowl on Saturday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Rashaad Penny and the Aztecs.

SDSU’s star RB will NOT be skipping the Armed Forces Bowl in preparation for the NFL draft. The Aztecs finished with a 10-2 record and went 6-2 in MWC play. 

SDSU’s defense is ranked 15th in the country, conceding just 304 total yards per game. The Aztecs are led by Penny on offense, who has 2,027 rushing yards and 19 TD’s so far this year. Junior QB Christian Chapman had a 13/3 TD/INT. 

Army finished 9-3. 

The Black Knights come into this one off a win over Navy in their regular season finale. QB Ahmad Bradshaw finished the year with 1,566 rushing and 12 rushing TD’s. Like its counterpart today, Army’s offense revolves around the run, led by Darnell Woolfolk and Kell Walker. 

The Black Knights own the No. 1 rushing offense in the country, but their defense has been hit or miss. Army had its six game win streak snapped in a 52-49 loss to North Texas on November 18th, only to then rebound in the 14-13 win over Navy. 

I’ll point out as well that SDSU is 4-1 ATS in its last five after allowing 20 points or less in its previous outing, while Army is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after holding its previous opponent to 14 points or less.

SDSU’s strength on defense is against the run, holding opponents to just 110.8 per game average. The Aztecs though also feature a top notch offense led by the Nation’s leading rusher. 

All signs point to a rout, lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Florida International (8:00 EST).

The Owls finished 6-6 on the year, managing to move to .500 after beating Tulsa 43-22 in their finale.

FIU finished 8-4 and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can.

Temple QB Frank Nutile was 20 of 28 for 262 yards, three TD’s an no INT’s in the Owls win over the Golden Hurricanes. Nutile has been decent in his limited time this year, although he does sport a pedestrian 11/7 TD/INT ratio. The defense looked poor last week, allowing Tulsa to post 460 yards, including 314 on the ground. The Owls average 24.6 PPG and concede 27.7.

The Golden Panthers average 27.5 PPG and concede 28.5. QB Alex McGough had 295 yards and three TD’s in last week’s win over UMass, while also rushing for 108 yards and a TD. The defense looked shaky in allowing 548 yards.

However I’ll point out that Temple is just 1-4 ATS in its last five non-conference games, while FIU is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 after scoring more than 40 points in its previous game.

Florida International scored 104 points combined over its last two regular season games and I look for that offensive momentum to get carried per here. Grab the points, 

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Louisiana Tech (8:00 EST).

6-6 Louisiana Tech gets ready to battle 7-5 SMU in the Frisco Bowl from Texas on Wednesday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Bulldogs.

The Bulldogs come in with momentum, as they needed to win their final two games of the regular season to qualify for a bowl. 

The Mustangs on the other hand sort of backed their way into the postseason, losing three straight before salvaging a win over Tulane in their finale.

Louisiana Tech has been fantastic defensively down the stretch and I think that carries over here. Note that Secdrick Cooper and Jaylon Ferguson were both named to the All-Conference USA First Team earlier in the week: “We are excited, enthusiastic, and fired up about having the opportunity to go to a bowl game this year and this could not have worked out better,” head coach Skip Holtz noted. “We have been in the Dallas Metroplex area three out of the last four years and we have a huge alumni base in the Dallas-Fort Worth area.”

SMU is back in a bowl for the first time since 2012. Chad Morris was in his third year as head coach, but he won’t be coaching tonight as he’s been lured away by Arkansas. The Mustangs’ offense is centred around the run, led by Ke’Mon Freeman and Xavier Jones, with a combined 20 major scores between the two. 

I think it’s interesting to note though that Louisiana Tech is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 off a win against a conference rival (including 2-1 ATS this season), while SMU is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven in the same position (including just 1-2 ATS this year.)

I think the Bulldogs under-the-radar defense keeps them competitive. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Akron (7:00 EST).

The 7-6 Akron Zips get ready to battle the 10-3 FAU Owls and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the underdog.

The Zips were 6-3 in MAC play, while FAU was 9-0 in C-USA action. 

Akron is by far the more motivated side in my opinion. The Zips fell 45-28 in the MAC Championship game to Toledo. Expect to see both Kato Nelson and Thomas Woodson under center today for the Zips. Woodson finished with 1,777 passing yards, while Nelson had an 8/2 TD/INT ratio. 

The Owls finished with nine straight wins and steamrolled UNT 41-17 in the C-USA title game. FAU features a strong run game, led by RB Devin Singletary, who had 1,796 rushing yards and 29 rushing TD’s. 

I’ll point out though that FAU TE Harrison Bryant, who missed the last two games with an injury, will also be sitting this one out. Bryant posted 408 receiving yards and five major scores.

Additionally note that Akron is 3-1 ATS in its last four after a two week or more period of rest, while FAU is just 1-2 ATS in its last three in the same position.

I think that Akron’s offense can keep it competitive, so grab as many points as you can.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NFL Week 15 Las Vegas Insider is on the NE Patriots at 4:25 ET.

The 10-3 New England Patriots are in Pittsburgh to take on the 11-2 Steelers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the defending champs.

After a loss to Miami last week, New England sits at 10-3 and one game back in the AFC, while Pittsburgh comes in having won eight straight, most recently coming from behind to knock off the Ravens at home in a thriller.

I think it’s important to point out though that the Pats haven’t lost back-to-back games since Week 12 and 13 of the 2015 campaign.

Clearly New England was collectively caught “looking ahead” to this much more important game last week: “It was a bad night,” Brady assessed. “We’ve had a lot of good nights this year. This was a bad night.”

I simply feel that Pittsburgh runs out of gas here. It’s win streak is extremely impressive and it does have the benefit of playing at home, but last week’s 39-38 Sunday night victory over Baltimore was an emotionally draining one and I believe the team comes in “hung over” still from that monumental win.

Remember, in January of 2017, New England throttled the Steelers 36-17 in the AFC title game. 

In conclusion, I guess we shouldn't have been too surprised by the Dolphins' win last Sunday. Sure, the Pats won 35-14 last season in Miami but the Dolphins had won iin New England' s three previous visits, including 2015 when the loss cost the Pats the AFC's No. 1 seed. What was shocking about last Sunday's result was Brady completing just 24 of 43 for 223 with one TD and two INTs (note: he entered the game with just four INTs on 438 attempts). What's more, the Pats were 0 of 11 on third down tries! 

Really think Brady will play that poorly again? Especially with so much on the line vs. Pittsburgh and Big Ben?

A check of the record book reveals that New England is 10-3 against the Steelers during the Belichick era, including 3-0 in the playoffs. 

What's more, the Pats are 54-18 SU and 48-24 ATS off a loss since 2000!

I’m jumping on the defending champs in this matchup.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Seattle Seahawks (4:05 EST).

Divisional games are always the most important and they almost always mean more to the home side. 

LA had its two game win streak snapped in a 43-35 defeat to Philadelphia at home last Sunday, while Seattle also had its two game win streak broken in a 30-24 setback at Jacksonville. 

If recent history is any precedence though, then the Hawks have to be liking their chances this afternoon, because when these teams met back on October 7th in LA, it was Seattle that pulled away for the 16-10 victory. 

LA ranks second in the league in scoring with 30.5 PPG, while ranked 12th on the defensive side by conceding 20.4. QB Jared Goff has 3,383 yards, 22 TD’s and six INT’s. RB Todd Gurley has 1,035 rushing yards and ten TD’s. 

Seattle averages 24.2 PPG, while conceding 19.4. QB Russell Wilson has 3,537 yards, 29 TD’s and 11 INT’s. He also has a team high 482 rushing yards, plus three more scores on the ground. WR Doug Baldwin has 860 receiving yards and five TD’s. 

I’ll point out though that LA is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after allowing 40 points or more in its previous contest, while Seattle is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 following a straight up loss.

Seattle’s defense isn’t what it used to be, but it’s still very formidable, among the league leaders in almost every category on that side of the ball. The Rams have struggled to move the ball against the league’s better defenses and this will ceratinly be a difficult atmosphere to play in as well.

When you add it all up, all signs point to a crucial victory for the hungry Seahawks. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Cleveland Browns (1:00 EST).

The 7-6 Baltimore Ravens are at Cleveland to take on the 0-13 Browns and for a number of different reasons, i think this one favors the home side.

The pressure is on Baltimore this weekend after a crushing 39-38 loss at Pittsburgh on Sunday. Cleveland can empathize, as it blew a late two-touchdown lead late in the fourth quarter to Green Bay last week, falling 27-21 in OT. Note that this is a revenge game for the Browns after the Ravens took the first one 24-10 back on September 17th. 

Last week Baltimore gave up 438 passing yards to the Steelers. RB Alex Collins was a bright spot with 120 rushing yards. QB Joe Flacco was 20 of 35 for 269 yards, two TD’s and a pick. The Ravens average just 298.1 YPG (27th), while conceding 329.2.

Browns’ QB DeShone Kizer had 214 yards, three TD’s and two INT’s in last week’s loss to the Packers. RB Isaiah Crowell has been solid this year with 716 yards and four TD’s. WR Josh Gordon has created quite the stir since his return and in two games he so far has 154 yards on seven catches with one TD.

Cleveland averages 311.4 YPG and concedes 328.3. 

It’s interesting to note though that Baltimore is just 2-3 ATS in its last five after allowing 38 points or more in its previous contest, while Cleveland is 2-1 ATS in its last three trying to revenge a loss against an opponent.

While I do indeed feel that the conditions are right for an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Cleveland.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the New York Giants (1:00 EST).

Philadelphia comes to The Big Apple off a big 43-35 win over the Rams, while New York enters off a 30-10 loss to the Cowboys. Note that when these teams played earlier in the year, it was the Eagles that hung on for the hard-fought 27-24 victory.

The Eagles are ranked third in the league in total offense with 390.5 YPG, but No. 1 in scoring offense with 31.1 PPG. Defensively Philadelphia has also been sharp, ranked fourth overall by allowing 294.2 YPG.

This is a prime letdown spot for Philadlephia if I’ve ever seen it. Last week’s epic win over the Rams clinched the team the NFC East title. But the victory came at a massive cost, as starting QB Carson Wentz was lost to injury for the rest of the season. Backup Nick Foles has plenty of weapons to work with, but he hasn’t seen any serious action since 2013/14. Jay Ajayi looked decent last week, but the defense looked horrible.

New York averages just 15.3 PPG, while conceding 24.7, ranked 26th. In last weeks loss QB Eli Manning was 31 of 46 for 227 yards, a TD and three INT’s. 

Manning was playing from behind from the get-go and with nothing to lose this weekend either, we can expect the veteran to once again “air it out.” 

Manning is playing for pride this weekend after his recent benching. Certainly he can’t be happy with his performance last weekend. 

The Eagles are an awesome team, but all of the above external factors working against them here will be too much for Foles to overcome in my opinion.

While I’ll stop short in calling for an outright upset, I do definitely feel that the desperate Giants can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Kansas City Chiefs (8:25 EST).

The winner of this contest will take first place in the division. LA enters off a 30-13 home win over Washington, while KC enters off a 26-15 win over Oakland.

If recent history is any precedence, then the Chiefs have to be loving their chances today, because when these teams met earlier in the year, it was KC that pulled away for the comfortable 24-10 victory.

The Chargers come into this one ranked fourth in the league in total offense with 372.7 per game, while ranked 12th in total yards allowed with 325.1 YPG conceded.

Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers was 18 of 31 last week for 319 yards and two TD’s. 

KC averages 371.3 YPG and concedes 373.4 per contest. Last week QB Alex Smith was 20 of 34 for 268 yards. 

I’ll point out though that LA is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten after posting more than 350 total yards in its previous game, while KC is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 after psoting more than 150 rushing yards in its previous outing.

The Chiefs won’t be taking anything for granted here after breaking a four-game slide in their last outing. 

The Chargers have been on a roll, but this is a tough environment at this time of year and I think Rivers and company finally have a letdown.

Play on Kansas City.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Marshall (4:30 EST).

The 7-5 Marshall Thundering Herd get ready to battle the 7-8 Colorado State Rams in the New Mexico Bowl on Saturday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Marshall.

Marshall QB Chase Litton finished with a 23/12 TD/INT and threw at least one TD strike in all but two games this year. The Herd feature two capable backs in Tyler King and Keion Davis. 

Marshall’s strength is on the defensive side, especially against the run.

The Rams weakness is on the defensive side, especially against pass heavy offenses. QB Nick Stevens had a 27/10 TD/INT. Colorado State also features a strong run game led by Dalyn Dawkins, who had 1,349 rushing yards on the year. 

I’ll point out though that the Herd are 5-1 ATS in their last six folliowing an ATS loss and 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site affairs, while the Rams are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site contests. 

Marshall has the better overall defense, allowing an average of just 125 rushing yards per game. Colorado State allows an average of 243 passing yards per game. 

I like Litton to light up this suspect Rams secondary and for Marshall to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Oregon (3:30 EST).

Boise State enters off a 17-14 win in the Mountain West title game back on December 2nd, while Oregon won its final two of the regular season (which included an impressive 69-10 win over Oregon State in “The Civil War.”)

The Broncos finished 39th in scoring this year with an average of 32.1 PPG. Boise State was decent defensively as well, allowing 22.5 PPG. QB Montell Cozart had 747 yards, ten TD’s and one INT. He’d go on to finish third on the team in rushing with 361 yards and four scores. QB Brett Rypien had 2,515 yards, 14 TD’s and four INT’s. 

Oregon averaged 36.7 PPG and allowed 28.3. QB Justin Herbert had 1,750 yards, 13 TD’s and three INT’s. RB Royce Freeman has 1,475 rushing yards and 16 major scores on the ground. 

I’ll point out as well that Oregon is already 1-0 ATS this year when playing with two or more weeks of rest and also 6-3 ATS in its last nine games played on “turf,” while Boise State is just 13-19 ATS in its last 32 non-conference games and just 3-10 ATS in its last 13 against teams with winning records.

I think the Ducks carry over the momentum that they found in the final two regular season games and I have a hard time seeing the Broncos keeping pace down the stretch. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick in my Superstar Triple Play is on North Texas (1:00 EST).

North Texas comes off a 41-17 loss to Florida Atlantic in the A-10 Championship Game, while Troy tied Appalachian State for the Sun Belt title. 

The Mean Green had little chance against high-powered FAU, which would wind up going undefeated in conference action. QB Mason Fine threw two INT’s in the loss. In three games previous though Fine had posted a 9/2 TD/INT. 

Troy has the better overall record than App State at 10-2, but both teams went 7-1 in conference action. The Trojans beat Arkansas State 32-25, but gave up over more than 300 yards then they themselves registered. 

I’ll point out that UNT is 7-1 ATS in its last eight non-conference games, while Troy is 2-5 ATS in its last seven following an ATS victory and just 1-5 ATS in its last six non-conference games. 

Florida Atlantic was a team of destiny this season. UNT though excelled down the stretch of the regular season and I like the Mean Green bounce back and to keep this one competitive down the stretch.

Grab the points, play on North Texas.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Denver Broncos (8:25 EST).

The 4-9 Denver Broncos are in Indianapolis to take on the 3-10 Colts and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. 

The Broncos got off the schneid last week, ending an eight-game losing streak with a 23-0 win over the Jets on Sunday.

The Colts come in with zero momentum, having lost four straight, most recently a 13-7 loss in snowy Buffalo this past weekend.

When these teams played last year it was Denver that scored the 34-20 win and suffice it to say, I expect a similar result in this one once it’s all said and done. 

Last week Denver shutout the Jets and knocked out New York’s starting QB Josh McCown. Broncos’ QB Trevor Siemian had 200 yards, a TD and no picks. Overall the Broncos ranks 22nd in total offense with 312.1 YPG, while ranked first in total defense, allowing 280.5 YPG. 

Last week Colts’ RB Frank Gore had 130 yards on 36 carries. QB Jacoby Brissett so far has 11 TD’s and seven picks on the year. Indianpolis though ranks 30th in total offense this season, averaging just 290.7 YPG, while ranked 29th on the defensive side by conceding 375.3 per contest.

Additionally I’ll point out that Devner is 3-1 ATS in its last four “Thursday” night games (playing on the short week), while Indianapolis is just 1-2 ATS in its last three in the same position.

I think the Broncos’ tough defensive unit proves to be the difference maker today. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the New England Patriots (8:30 EST).

The 10-2 New England Patriots are in Miami to take on the 5-7 Dolphins and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

This is a big game for the Pats, who with a victory today would wrap up their ninth straight AFC East title. TE Rob Gronkowski is out, but I don’t think that’s going to slow down Tom Brady and company one bit. 

The Fish come in off a 35-9 home win over the lowly Broncos last week, but I think they suffer a predictable letdown here.

And if recent history is any precedence, then New England has to be liking its chances today, because when these teams met on November 26th, it was the Patriots that came away with the relatively simple 35-17 victory.

So far the Pats average 413.2 YPG, while allowing 375.7.

Last week Miami’ QB Jay Cutler had 235 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s. The Dolphins average just 292.6 YPG and concede 339.9. 

I’ll point out that New England is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 following an ATS victory, while Miami is 0-8 ATS in its last eight Monday night contests and just 1-5 ATS in its last six as the underdog in this series. 

I like New England and Brady to control this one on both sides of the ball and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS victory. Lay the points, play on the Patriots.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the LA Rams (4:25 EST).

LA has won six of its last seven, most recenlty coming off victories over the Saints and Cardinals. Philadelphia is 10-2, but it comes in off a tough setback in Seattle and suffice it to say, I think it’s primed for another letdown in Week 14. 

Philadelphia allows 17.9 PPG. But clearly the Eagles hit a wall last week and note that this is in fact a position in which they’ve struggled in mightily for bettors, going just 1-3 ATS in its last four following a SU loss.

RB Todd Gurley had 74 yards on 19 attempts for the Rams last week. QB Jared Goff had two TD strikes in the 32-16 win. 

Additionally I’ll point out that Philadelphia is just 1-4 ATS in its last five road games against teams with a winning home record, while LA is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 home games agianst teams with winning road records. 

I think the Eagles are running out of gas, while the Rams are just starting to hit their stride. 

Play on LA.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Seattle Seahawks (4:25 EST).

The 8-4 Seattle Seahawks are in Jacksonville to take on the 8-4 Jaguars and for a number of different reasons, I believe this one favors the visitors.

Seattle is still within striking distance of the division lead after beating Philadelphia 24-10 on Sunday. QB Russell Wilson had 227 yards and three TD’s. Note that Wilson is tied for second in the NFL with 26 TD’s and he also has 432 rushing yards on the year. 

The Seahawks will be confident as they come in having won four straight road games after opening season setbacks at Green Bay and Tennessee.

The Jags are tied with the Titans for the divison lead and they smashed the Colts 30-10 this past Sunday. QB Blake Bortles went for 309 yards and two TD’s. The Jacksonville defense posted four sacks and it now leads the league with 45 total. 

I’ll point out though that Seattle is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four on the road, while Jacksonville is a poor 1-5 ATS in its last six following an ATS victory. 

As good as Bortles has looked of late, I’m still giving the nod to Wilson in this matchup. And that’s the difference maker for me. While I wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Seattle.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NFL Week 14 Las Vegas Insider is on the Car Panthers at 1;00 ET.

Carolina has questions marks with some of its key pieces on offense, but QB Cam Netwon will be under center. TE Greg Olson, RB Jonathan Stewart and WR Devin Funchess are all listed as day-to-day, but I still think that the home side will find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon.

The Vikes control the NFC North and come to town off eight straight victories. The Panthers look to get back on track as they saw their four-game win streak end in a loss to New Orleans last weekend.

Minnesota didn’t look overly impressive offensively in last week’s 14-9 win over Atlanta, but Case Keenum had 227 yards and two TD’s. 

In last week’s loss to the Saints, Newton had 183 yards, two TD’s and INT’s. 

Carolina though is 4-1 ATS in its last five after allowing 30 points or more in its previous contest, while Minnesota is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after holding its previous opponent to ten points or less.

In conclusion, Atlanta's 20-17 win Thursday night over New Orleans was great news for the Panthers. 

Carolina can now move back into a first-place tie with the 9-4 Saints in the NFC South with a win. The Falcons and Saints play again in Week 16, so the Panthers have a great chance to "make a move." 

This contest with the Vikings is the first of three straight home games, with the Packers (no Rodgers?) and the Bucs (just 4-8, currently), up next. The Vikings have done everything right and the team's D has been superb but remember, this is Minnesota's THIRD straight road game. The Vikings are a very good team but they are NOT a great team!

Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Cleveland Browns (1:00 EST).

The 6-6 Green Bay Packers are in Cleveland to take on the 0-12 Browns and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

After losing five of six, the Packers came up with a win over Tampa Bay last weekend. 

Green Bay’s offensive line has given up 42 sacks this year, which doesn’t bode well for Packers’ backup QB Brett Hundley in my opinion. So far Hundley has five TD’s on 206 attempts to go along with eight iNT’s. 

Cleveland only averages 14.7 PPG, but it does possess a Top 10 defense in terms of yardage given up. WR Josh Gordon returned in last week’s loss and looked impressive. Duke Johnson Jr. is a decent RB. QB DeShone Kizer isn’t great, but he’s hungry. 

Green Bay’s win last week was encouraging, but the team faces an uphill battle with Aaron Rodgers still not at 100%. 

I do firmly believe this is Cleveland’s greatest chance this season to get off the schneid. While I obvoiusly wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. 

Play on Cleveland

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Navy (3:00 EST).

The 8-3 Army Black Knights get ready to battle the 6-5 Navy Midshipmen in the annual Army/Navy game and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Midshipmen. 

Army comes in off a disturbing 52-49 loss to North Texas, while Navy fell 24-14 to Houston in its latest action. 

Note that this is a revenge game for Navy. Last year Army would break a 14-game losing streak in the series, prevailing 27-17.

The 52 points and 489 total yards given up last week were both season highs for Army. Overall the Black Knights were strong defensively this year, but I think there’s cause for concern if you’re an Army fan. 

Army leads the country with an average of 368 rushing yards per game.

Navy QB Zach Abey was just 2 of 4 for 45 yards last week. But like the Knights, the Midshipmen are a run first offnese, as Abey has 1,322 rushing yards, along with 14 major scores on the ground this season. RB Malcom Perry was a bright spot in Navy’s most recent loss, rushing for 82 yards on 15 carries. 

Army has beaten up on “lesser” competition all year and the Black Knights defense was exposed in the loss to North Texas. 

Adittionally note that Army is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven against teams with winning records and only 5-6 ATS this season on games played on “turf,” while Navy is 3-1 ATS this year against teams with winning records and 5-3 ATS in games played on turf.

I think the “hungrier” team finds a way to get the job done at the end of the day. Lay the points, play on Navy.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Atlanta Falcons (8:25 EST).

The 9-3 New Orleans Saints are in Atlanta to take on the 7-5 Falcons on Thursday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

A loss to division rival New Orleans this week would likely be too much for Atlanta to climb out of. The Falcons come in off a 14-9 loss to Minnesota. 

The Saints come in off a satisfying win over division rival Carolina at home and I think they have a letdown here against the now desperate Falcons.

New Orleans ranks second in total offense with an average of 408.6 YPG, while ranked 12th in total defense by allowing 330.1 YPG. 

Atlanta ranks eighth in YPG with 365.2, while ranked eighth on the defensive side by conceding 321. 

New Orleans has been fantastic in almost every single ATS statistical category there is this year, but note that it’s just 1-2 ATS in all games when the line is set between +3 and -3 (and just 2-6 ATS in its last eight in the same position), while Atlanta is a perfect 2-0 ATS in its last two as a home dog of three points or less and 11-5 ATS in its last 16 as an underdog overall.

Division contests always mean the most and they almost always mean more to the home side. This has essentially become a “do or die” for Matt Ryan and company and I believe they answer the call at home on the short week. Play on the Falcons.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cincinnati Bengals (8:30 EST).

The Bengals season is for all intents and purposes on the line tonight and as such, we’re clearly not going to have to question the home sides overall effort this evening.

This is also a revenge game for Cincinnati after it dropped the first matchup with the Steelers 29-14 back on October 22nd. 

If the Bengals can pull off the upset, they’ll move back to .500 (6-6), with a very winnable game at home against the Browns on deck. This is a make or break part of the entire 2017/18 campaign for Cincinnati.

Pittsburgh on the other hand has won six straight, but had to hold on for dear life in last week’s 31-28 home win over the Aaron Rodger-less Packers. 

The Steelers’ defense is starting to show signs of fatigue and I think the unit has another letdown here against this revenge minded and improving Bengals offense. 

Additioanlly I’ll point out that Pittsburgh is just 7-10 ATS in its last 17 after two or more consecutive SU victories, while Cincinnati is 3-2 ATS as an underdog this season and 10-7 ATS in its last 17 against the division.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Bengals.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NFL Week 3 Las Vegas Insider is on the Sea Seahawks at 8:30 ET.

Yes, the Eagles have won nine straight, own the NFL's best record at 10-1 and also its best point-differential at plus-160. However, are you aware that the Eagles have played just two teams which currently own a winning record? They lost to the Chiefs 27-20 back in Week 2 and note that KC is just 6-5, after having lost five of its last six. Then there is Philly's 28-23 win at Carolina in Week 6 and for sure, the Panthers are proving to be one the NFC's best teams at 8-3.

However, since that win at Carolina, the Eagles' last five wins have come over Washington, San Francisco, Denver, Dallas and Chicago. Only Washington and Dallas are competitive (both are 5-6) but note that Philly met Dallas without "Zeke" (0-3 without Elliott), LT Smith and LB Lee. As for the trio of the 49ers, Broncos (losers of seven straight) and the Bears, they own a combined record of 7-26 (.212).

It's true that Seattle's defense is not what it used to be and that the running game is highly suspect but Russell Wilson is carrying this offense. Let's mention that he is a remarkable 37-7 SU (.841) at home as a starting QB in the regular season and the Seahawks haven't been a home dog this big since Wilson took over the job under center in his rookie season of 2012. "Just for grins," I went back to Week 1 of the 2017 season and checked the power ratings of Seattle and Philadelphia. If these teams would have met in Week 1 at Seattle, the Seahawks would have been favored by eight points. That means we've had a two-TD swing (give or take)! You make the call!! No, let me.

Play on the Seahawks.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* ODDSMAKER’S ERROR is on the Cleveland Browns (4:05 EST).

The 0-11 Cleveland Browns are in LA to take on the 5-6 Chargers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. 

Cleveland comes to town off a 30-16 loss to Cincinnati last week, while the Chargers got by the Cowboys 26-6 on the road on Thanksgiving. 

The Browns only win came against the Chargers last season (20-17.) 

Last week Cleveland QB DeShone Kizer was 18 of 31 for 268 yards with no TD’s or INT’s. Kizer has for the most part struggled this year, but I’m expecting him to produce against the inconsistent Chargers’ secondary. RB Isaiah Crowell was a bright spot last week with 95 rushing yards on 16 carries. 

The Chargers looked great on the defensive side of the ball last week, holding the Cowboys to 247 total yards, including just 79 on the ground. That was of course without RB Ezekiel Elliot in the line-up. 

Dallas is a mess without Elliot, so I’m not reading too much into last weeks defensive performance by the Bolts. 

Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers was 27 of 33 for 434 yards and three TD’s in last week’s win. He’s been fantastic overall with a 20/7 TD/INT, but regression at some point does seem imminent in my opinion. 

Is the fact that Cleveland is 3-1 ATS its last four against the AFC West relevant in this situation? It doesn’t hurt (it’s also very interesting to note that LA is jsut 1-4 ATS in its last five against the AFC North.) 

Additionally I’ll point out that the Chargers are just 1-2 ATS in their last three after two or more consecutive wins. 

With Washington coming to town next weekend, I also believe that the home side gets caught “looking ahead.”

While I’m not calling for the outright upset, I do like Kizer and the hungry Browns to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST).

Minnesota has won seven in a row and I think it finally comes up short this weekend. The Vikes were most recently in action on Thanksgiving, taking care of business against Detroit. 

The Falcons come in on a three-game win streak, coming out on the right side of Dallas, Seattle and Tampa Bay. 

These teams are both on fire. The Vikes get the job done with an awesome defensive unit which leads the league in most categories. Case Keenum has emerged as an above par game manager. The run game and special teams are also strong, so when you add it all up you have a team which for the most part is pretty tough to matchup against.

The Falcons though have found their swagger. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones are putting up impressive numbers (Jones had over 250 yards receiving last week). Atlanta also looked sharp defensively last week.

So where’s the value? 

I’ll point out that Minnesota is interestingly just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games played on a grass field, while Atlanta is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 following a SU win and interestingly, 4-1 ATS in its last five after scoring more than 30 points in its previous game.

I expect a war, but I think Ryan will in the end get the better of Keenum and I believe the Vikes’ defense finally “cracks.” Lay the points, play on the Falcons.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Chicago Bears (1:00 EST).

The Bears look to stop a four-game slide on Sunday. Here comes the perfect opponent to get untracked against. San Francisco looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion after it snapped a season-opening nine game skid with a win over the Giants, followed by an immediate return to mediocrity in a setback to the Seahawks this past Sunday. 

San Francisco will be turning to Jimmy Garoppolo moving forward. He entered in last week’s win after starter CJ Beathard went down with injury and in the end he managed a ten-yard TD strike to Louis Murphy on the final play. 

The Bears couldn’t get anything going in last week’s 31-3 loss to Philadelphia. Mitchell Trubisky struggled and so too did the ground game, producing just 65 yards. 

I’ll point out though that San Francisco has struggled mightily in this spot for bettors for a while now, going just 1-4 ATS in its last five against the NFC, while Chicago is still 3-1-1 ATS in its last five following an ATS loss. 

The Bears’ run game will return to the norm here, previous to last week’s poor performance they’d held down the No. 5 rushing attack in the league. 

A tough spot for Garoppolo as well. I think Chicago’s defense and run game prove to be too much for the inconsistent visitors this afternoon. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on Miami Florida (8:00 EST).

The Hurricane had a letdown in their finale, falling 24-14 at Pittsburgh to finish 7-1 in conference action, while the Tigers also went 7-1 in the ACC and would go on to spank South Carolina 34-10 in their final regular season game.

The Hurricanes clearly got caught “looking ahead” to this game and stumbled at the worst time last week. Regardless of that “dud” though, Miami Florida comes in ranked 40th in the country in scoring with 31.9 PPG average, while ranked 15th overall on the defensive side by conceding just 18.3 PPG. Miami QB Malik Rosier has 2,798 yards with a 25/9 TD/INT ratio. 

Clemson averages 35.2 PPG and concedes 13.6. QB Kelly Bryant has 2,426 yards and a 12/6 TD/INT, while also running for 639 yards and ten more TD’s. 

The Hurricanes are banged up at RB, but note that Miami Florida is 4-2 ATS in its last six as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range.

Also note that Clemson is still just 3-5 ATS in its last eight against the conference. 

I think last week was a wake up call for Miami Florida. The Hurricanes have the defense to slow down this dynamic Clemson offense and while I’m not calling for an outright upset, I do expect the hungry/taltented Canes to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Georgia (4:00 EST).

My one and only 10* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR was on Auburn last weekend and the Tigers would go on to beat No. 1 Alabama outright. 

But for the SEC Championship Game, I’m “flipping the script” and going with the underdog again, as I expect Auburn to come in “hung over” still from that emotional upset victory.

There’s a lot on the line today, as the winner will almost assuredly get an invite to the College Football Playoff. 

Since losing to Auburn earlier in the year, Georgia bounced back by hammering Kentucky 42-13 and then smashing Georgia Tech 38-7 this past weekend. Georgia racked up 247 rushing yards in that one.

Which wasn’t the case in the first game against the Tigers, who limited the Bulldogs to just 46 yards. QB Jake Fromm was just 13 of 28 for 184 yards, one TD and no INT’s, while Auburn’ QB Jarrett Stidham had 214 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s. 

“You don’t shake a memory,” Georgia head coach Kirby Smart assessed earlier in the week. “You put it in their face and you challenge people. Fundamentally, we’ve got to play better than we played last time and we obviously have got to play with more discipline and composure to avoid the knucklehead decisions that we had in the game. You can’t give good teams things. If you give them things, it makes it twice as hard…. But at the end of the day, it really is not about the game before. It’s really about the motivation in the game. Our kids understand that. They know they’ve got an opportunity to go out and at least erase what they did last time. This is a fresh start to go out and play a new game.”

I’ll point out though that Georgia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine trying to revenge a loss against an opponent (including 4-0 ATS this season), while Auburn is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 off a win against a conference rival. 

I think Georgia rides the “revenge” angle to victory today. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

8* PERFECT STORM on Oklahoma (12:30 EST).

The No. 2, 11-1 Oklahoma Sooners get ready to battle the No. 10, 10-2 TCU Horned Frogs on Saturday afternoon in the Big 12 Championship game and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Sooners.

When these teams played on November 11th from Norman, Oklahoma smashed TCU 38-20, rolling up 533 yards of offense, including 333 through the air from dynamic QB Baker Mayfield (3 TD’s.) 

THe Horned Frogs come in off a 45-22 home win over Baylor last Saturday. QB Kenny Hill had 325 yards and three TD’s. Hill has 2,604 passing yards and a 19/5 TD/INT. 

The TCU offense averages 422.1 YPG (47th), while the defense has been hit or miss, great against the run (90 YPG) and poor against the pass (227.5 YPG allowed.) 

The Sooners will need to win this game to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive. Mayfield finished with 4,097 yards and a 37/5 TD/INT. Oklahoma’s weakness comes on the defensive side, where it allows 390.3 YPG, including 241.2 through the air. 

Oklahoma averages 45.2 PPG though and I simply can’t see Hill and company matching pace down the stretch. Mayfield is a man on a mission right now.

Also note that TCU is just 2-4 ATS this year off a win against a conference rival, while Oklahoma is 4-3 ATS this year in the same position. 

For all the reasons listed above, lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH is on USC (8:00 EST).

The 9-3 Stanford Cardinal are ready to duke it out with the 10-2 USC Trojans on Friday night for the SEC title. If recent history is any precedence, then USC has to be loving its chances today, because when these teams met back in early September, it was the Trojans that pulled away for the easy 42-24 victory.

Stanford comes in off two straight wins, most recently handling Notre Dame last week. QB KJ Costello had 1,169 passing yards and a 9/2 TD/INT ratio this season. The Cardinal offense though revolves around the run led by Bryce Love, who has posted over 100 yards in all but one game this year. Stanford also has a strong defense which concedes just 20 PPG. 

That defense though could not contain the high-flying Trojans in September, allowing 623 total yards. 

USC allows 26 PPG and it’s been better against the run than the pass. QB Sam Darnold had 3,462 passing yards and a 24/12 TD/INT ratio this year. Overall the offense is ranked 18th in the country by averaging 489 yards per contest. 

I’ll point out as well that Stanford is 0-5 ATS this year following an ATS victory, while the Trojans are interestingly 5-1 ATS in their last six after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in their previous game. 

Darnold torched the Cardinal for four TD’s and the Trojans piled on over 620 yards of offense in the first game. I have a hard time seeing Stanford slowing down Darnold again. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (8:30 EST).

The 5-5 Green Bay Packers are in Pittsburgh to take on the 8-2 Steelers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

Green Bay is reeling without Aaron Rodgers, coming in off a 23-0 loss at home to Baltimore. Backup QB Brett Hundley has struggled, last week he was 21 of 36 or 239 yards, no TD’s and three INT’s. 

Hundley has 940 yards and 2/7 TD/INT ratio since taking over for Rodgers. Rookie RB Jamaal Williams had 57 yards on 18 carries. 

Defensively the Packers looked decent, holding Baltimore to 219 total yards.

But now Green Bay faces a Steelers unit which just exploded for a 40-17 win over Tennessee last Thursday. Ben Roethlisberger was 30 of 45 for 299 yards, four TD’s and no INT’s. 

The Steelers defense was tremendous, making four INT’s and allowing only 52 rushing yards. Overall Pittsburgh allows just 287 total yards per game, ranked fourth in the NFL. 

Note that Green Bay is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after getting blanked in its previous outing, while Pittsburgh is 2-1 ATS in its last three after scoring 40 points or more in its previous game.

For all the reasons listed above, lay the points with confidence.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NFL Week 12 Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Rams at 4:25 ET.

The 8-2 New Orleans Saints are in LA to take on the 7-3 Rams and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

New Orleans is the hottest team in the NFL and railled for a 34-31 win over Washignton last week. Suffice it to say, I’m finally expecting a letdown here from Drew Brees and company. 

LA will be hungry for a rebound performance here after laying a dud in last week’s 24-7 road loss in Minnesota. The Rams also play with revenge after the Saints crushed them 49-21 last year. 

I think New Orleans is ripe for the picking though, gassed after such a long stretch of dominance. Last week the defense conceded 456 yards to the Redskins. New Orleans’ defense is a big reason why the Saints are so improved this year, but continued regression seems imminent against this dynamic Rams offense.

LA has steamrolled over almost everybody it’s faced this season, but last week it came up short against the Vikings’ amazing defense. Overall the Rams have been terrific defensively as well, allowing an average of 123 rushing yards per game. 

Additionally I’ll point out that New Orleans is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a road dog of three points or less, while LA is 4-3 ATS as a favorite already this season and 2-1 ATS against clubs with winning records.

I think there’s some room to read between the lines with the Saints’ improved defensive performance this year, as note that their last four opponents certainly haven’t been “World beaters” in the Packers (without Rodgers), the Bears, Bucs and Bills. 

Last week the Saints gave up 31 points to a strong offense on their home field, so things clearly won’t be any easier for them in this hostile environment. 

I’m banking on a blowout, lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Jacksonville Jaguars (4:25 EST).

The 7-3 Jacksonville Jaguars are in Arizona to take on the 4-6 Cardinals and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. 

Jacksonville easily handled the Browns 19-7 on the road last week, while the Cards enter off a 31-21 road loss to Houston. 

Jags’ QB Blake Bortles was 17 of 30 for 154 yards, one TD and no INT’s. Rookie RB Leonard Fournette had 111 rushing yards on 28 carries. WR Marqise Lee had 45 yards receiving. 

But it was once again Jacksonville’s defense which was the difference maker, allowing Cleveland just 184 total yards of offense, while also forcing five turnovers. The Jags feature the No. 1 defense in the league, a unit which has already posted 40 sacks.

Blaine Gabbert got the call for Arizona under center last week and he threw for 257 yards, three TD’s and two INT’s in place of the injured Drew Stanton. RB Adrian Peterson was a no-show for a second straight week, posting 26 rushing yards. 

Arizona’s defense also looked shaky, giving up 357 yards, including 134 on the ground. 

Additionally I’ll point out that Jacksonville is already 4-1 ATS on the road this year and 3-2 ATS against teams with losing records, while Arizona is just 1-2 ATS at home and only 1-4 ATS as an underdog. 

I think the Cards will have a tough time moving the ball against the Jags elite defense. Bortles hasn’t been spectacular this year, but Fournette should be able to do some damage. This line should be a lot bigger in my opinion, play on Jacksonville.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST)

The Falcons come in with a ton of momentum with consecutive victories over Dallas and Seattle. After a slow start to the 2017/18 campaign, I look for Matt Ryan and company to keep the foot on the gas again this weekend.

The Bucs are reeling. Tampa is without starting QB Jameis Winston for a third straight game and it had lost five straight before winning the last two over bottom feeders New York and Miami. 

Tampa has turned to veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick, who comes in off the 30-20 win over the Fish this last weekend, going 22 of 37 for 275 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s. 

But Atlanta looks poised for a big run to end the year in my opinion, getting improved play in all three phases right now:

“We’re getting our swagger back,” Falcons’ receiver Julio Jones assessed. “Last year’s last year–but you can’t win games off last year and it can’t do anything for this year. We’re just trying to get it going and get an identity as the 2017 Falcons.”

I’ll point out that Tampa Bay is just 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 against the NFC, while Atlanta is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after scoring 30 points or more in its previous contest.

This is an important stretch for Atlanta, as this is the first of three straight in front of the home town crowd. I expect Ryan to open up the playbook and I look for Fitzpatrick to stumble down the stretch.

Lay the points, play on the Falcons.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on North Carolina (3:30 EST).

I’m expecting a much closer “Tobbacco Road” battle than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

UNC won its second straight, most recently dispatching Western Carolina 65-10 at home on Saturday. Suffice it to say, I think the Tar Heels are going to carry over that confidence and momentum here.

NC State on the other hand lost for the third time in its last four games in a 30-24 road setback to Wake Forest this past weekend. 

Note that this is a revenge game for North Carolina after the Wolfpack won 28-21 in last year’s meeting.

North Carolina averages 26.5 PPG and allows 31.1. QB Chazz Surratt has 1,342 passing yards, eight TD’s and three INT’s, while adding 40 yards and three more scores on the ground. RB Jordon Brown has 589 yards and four TD’s on the ground. 

NC State averages 30.4 PPG and concedes 25.1. QB Ryan Finley has 2,992 yards, 16 TD’s and five INT’s. RB Nyheim Hines has 844 yards and seven TD’s on the ground.

I’ll point out though that UNC is still 9-4 ATS in its last 13 on the road, while NC State is just 8-9 ATS in its last 17 at home (including only 1-3 ATS this year.) 

The Tar Heels have won two straight and I think they’ll give the Wolfpack everything they can handle tonight. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE YEAR is on Auburn (8:00 EST).

The 11-0 Alabama Crimson Tide are at Auburn to take on the 9-2 Tigers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

Alabama is ranked No. 1 after crushing FCS Mercer 56-0 at home last weekend. 

Auburn also comes in off a “cream puff,” smashing UL Monroe 42-14. 

Alabama held Mercer to just 161 total yards in the blowout victory. In all ‘Bama would post 530 yards, including 265 on the ground. 

The Tide rank ninth in rushing yards per game, with 270.3 per contest, with Damien Harris leading the way with 855 thus far.

Alabama continues to get the job done with smothering defensive play and a nation leading rushing attack.

Auburn seemed like it was getting caught “looking ahead” to the Iron Bowl this weekend against UL Monroe last Saturday, as the Tigers went into half time with just a 14-7 lead. However, Auburn woke up in a big way in the second half, scoring a quick 21 unanswered points. 

QB Jarrett Stidham had 235 yards, two TD’s and an INT. Overall Auburn averages 475.9 YPG, with 231.9 on the ground. 

Defensively the Tigers have been dominant as well, conceding just 302.5 YPG overall, including only 118.2 on the ground (ranked 16th in the country.) And I believe Auburn’s tough run defense will prove to be a big difference maker today.

I’ll point out as well that Alabama is just 1-4 ATS in its last five conference contests, while Auburn is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight in the same position.

There’s no way the Tigers go down without a fight in their season finale in front of the home town crowd. I’m banking on a nail-biter, so grab the points!

Good luck…Larry

My 8* ODDSMAKER’S ERROR is on UConn (12:00 EST).

Both teams are looking to close out miserable season’s with an elusive victory.

UConn has lost four straight, most recently to Boston College. Cincinnati is also just 3-8 this year, going just 1-7 in its last eight overall.

In their 38-16 loss to BC, Huskies’ QB David Pindell had 241 yards, one TD and three INT’s. It was a cold, blustery day at Fenway Park and Pindell would struggle for the most part.

The Bearcats enter off a 48-20 loss to East Carolina. Cincinnati is ranked dead last in the AAC in total offense. Last week the Bearcats finished with 326 total yards of offense.

Note that UConn is already 4-3 ATS against the conference this year, while Cincinnati is just 2-5 ATS in the same position. 

The Bearcats are 103rd in the country in total offense. Pindell and company don’t have to do too much to keep this one close and the outright win isn’t out of the question either obviously.

In a contest which I foresse being decided by whichever team has the ball in its hands last, I’m grabbing the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Purdue (12:00 EST).

Home field advantage will prove to be the difference maker today between two teams sitting at 5-6.

Each side will be laying everything on the line as it tries to punch its ticket to bowl eligibility.

Indiana kept is playoff hopes alive with a second straight win by smashing Rutgers 41-0 at home last Saturday, while Purdue enters off a big 24-15 road win at Iowa last Saturday. 

Note that this is a big time revenge game for the Boilermakers though, who have lost four straight in the series, including a 26-24 setback in the most recent matchup last November 26th. 

Indiana comes into the final game of the year ranked 74th in scoring offense with an average of just 27.1 PPG, while ranked 45th on the defensive side by conceding 24.8. QB Richard Lagow has 1,563 yards, 12 TD’s and seven INT’s, while Peyton Ramsey has 1,252 yards, ten TD’s and five INT’s. 

Purdue ranks 104th in scoring offense by averaging only 23.7 PPG, but it gets the job done most weekends with its powerful defensive play, a unit which is ranked 18th overall by conceding just 18.9 PPG. QB David Blough has 1,103 yards, nine TD’s and four INT’s. Blough’s been out for a bit though and back up Elijah Sindelar has been good in replacement, going for 1,544 yards, 12 TD’s and six iINT’s. 

I’ll point out that Indiana is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven following a SU win of more than 20 points, while Purdue is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 after posting less than 100 rushing yards in its previous game.

I like the Boilermakers to continue their “lights out” defensive play and carry over their momentum from their impressive victory over the Hawkeyes. Indiana has struggled on the road for the most part this year and I think it looks primed for a letdown after the back-to-back victories.

Lay the points, play on Purdue.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* FOX-TV GAME OF THE YEAR is on Texas Tech (8:00 EST).

Texas Tech has lost five of six, including a 27-3 setback to TCU on Saturday. Texas Tech will need an outright win today to move back to .500. 

Texas Tech has struggled offensively of late, posting 27 points or less in three of its last five games. 

Texas had endured an up and down season, but enters off a 28-14 win over WVU. 

I’m going to caution reading too much into the Longhorns defensive performance last week against the Mountaineers, as WVU starting QB Will Grier was hurt early. 

The Longhorns have to be feeling pretty content after finally punching their sixth win of the year last week. Texas is now bowl eligible. 

The Red Raiders still need one more victory before they’ll be included in any bowl game in December though, so there’s no questioning whether or not Texas Tech will be motivated today.

Also note that the Red Raiders are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five as a road dog in the 7.5 to ten points range, while Texas is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU wins.

Letdown spot for Texas, while Texas Tech leaves everything on the line. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on Nebraska (4:00 EST).

Iowa will be hungry here after dropping its second straight, most recently a 24-15 setback at home to Purdue. Nebraska though can empathize, as it dropped its third straight and fifth in it last six in a 56-44 shootout loss to Penn State on the road last week. 

Note that the Huskers play with revenge here, as Iowa has taken the last two in the series, most recently a 40-10 home victory last November 25th. 

After upsetting Ohio State, Iowa has fallen flat in back-to-back outings, moving to just 3-5 in Big Ten play. The Hawkeyes are ranked 87th in the nation in scoring with 25.8 PPG, while ranked 26th defensively in conceding 20.5. QB Nathan Stanley has 2,146 yards, 23 TD’s and six INT’s. 

Nebraska is ranked 76th in scoring offense with 26.8 PPG, while ranked 106th in scoring defense by allowing 34.8. QB Tanner Lee has 2,938 passing yards, 21 TD’s and 13 INT’s. 

I’ll point out though that Iowa is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven off a loss against a conference rival (including only 1-2 ATS this season), while Nebraska is 4-1 ATS in its last five after two or more consecutive SU losses and 6-5 ATS in its last 11 off a loss against a conference rival.

While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing the points. Play on Nebraska.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* ODDSMAKER’S ERROR is on New Mexico (3:30 EST).

The 3-8 New Mexico Lobos are in SDSU to take on the 9-2 Aztecs on Friday afternoon and while I’m not calling for an outright upset, I do definitely expect the visitors to keep this on a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. 

New Mexico has lost six straight, but it looked competitive in last week’s 38-35 loss to UNLV. 

SDSU is in a dog fight to the end and most recently beat Nevada 42-23. 

The Lobos went toe-to-toe with red hot UNLV QB Armani Rogers, but in the end it wasn’t to be.

However, I absolutely believe New Mexico will bring that same intensity over into the season finale. 

Aztecs’ RB Rashaad Penny had a monster game last weekend, exploding for 429 all purpose yards. It was an amazing day, but I have a hard time seeing Penny duplicating such massive efforts on back-to-back weeks. 

I’ll point out as well that New Mexico is 6-4 ATS in its last ten off a loss against a conference rival and 4-2 ATS in its last six as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points, while SDSU is just 2-4 ATS at home this year.

I think SDSU goes up early and takes the foot off the gas late, allowing the hungry Lobos to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch.

Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Baylor (12:00 EST).

Baylor is just 1-10 on the year. The Bears beat Kansas, but they’ve since dropped back to back games to Texas Tech and then to Iowa State.

TCU is 9-2 after destroying Texas Tech this past weekend. 

The Bears were competitive in a 23-13 loss to Iowa State Saturday and they’ll look to play spoiler to a TCU team which must win today to lock up its spot in the conference championship against Oklahoma. 

TCU beat Texas Tech 27-3 last weekend, but freshman QB Shawn Robison (filling in for Kenny Hill), wasn’t overly spectacular, finishing with 85 yards, one TD and zero INT’s. Hill is probable for this one, but one has to wonder if he’ll really be at 100% at this point?

I’ll point out as well that Baylor is 10-6 ATS in its last 16 against teams with winning records, while TCU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a favorite in the 21.5 to 31 points range. 

I think the pressure gets to TCU this weekend and Iook for the the Bears to keep this one competitive unitl the final quarter. Grab the points.

Good luck….Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the LA Chargers (4:30 EST).

The 4-6 LA Chargers are in Dallas to take on the 5-5 Cowboys and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

LA comes in having won four of its last six, most recently smashing the Bills. Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers had 251 yards and two TD’s in that one.

Rivers has been dominant this year with 2,514 yards, 17 TD’s and seven INT’s. Melvin Gordon keeps defenses honest, so far posting 633 yards and five TD’s on the ground. 

The Cowboys though are reeling. After winning three in a row, Dallas has now dropped two straight to Atlanta and Philadelphia respectively. Dak Prescott looked terrible in his last outing, throwing for 145 yards and three INT’s. 

Prescott has 16 TD’s and seven INT’s thus far, but he’s going to struggle again without RB Ezekiel Elliot in the lineup. 

I’ll point out as well that LA is 94-68 ATS in road games when playing with six or less days of rest since 1992, while Dallas is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after its QB failed to register 150 passing yards in its previous outing. 

Without Elliot playing, Dallas is very one dimensional. The Cowboys have averaged only 16 points over their last two games. That’s not going to cut it against a red hot Rivers and company.

Play on the Chargers.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Detroit Lions (12:30 EST).

The 8-2 Minnesota Vikings are in Detroit on Thanksgiving to take on the 6-4 Lions and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

Minnesota comes in off a 24-7 win over the Rams in its latest action, its sixth win in a row. Detroit enters off a tougher than expected 27-24 road win at Chicago, its third straight victory. 

If recent history is any precedence though, then Detroit has to be loving its chances, because when these teams played on October 1st, it was the Lions that scored the 14-7 upset victory.

Minnesota’s Case Keenum was 27 of 38 for 280 yards and a score last week. Overall the Vikes held the Rams to just 45 rushing yards on 17 attempts. Minnesota enters this game ranked second defensively, conceding just 17.2 PPG.

Lions’ QB Matt Stafford had 299 yards and two TD’s last week, but Detroit posted just 66 rushing yards. Detroit has struggled with the run this year, ranked 28th, while been dominant in the passing game, ranked sixth. 

Ultimately I think the short week favors the home side. Minnesota has been playing incredible defense, but I believe the unit finally comes in “gassed.” Expect Stafford to air this one out early and often and while I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Lions.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Ball State (7:00 EST).

The 4-7 Miami Ohio Redhawks are at Ball State to take on the 2-9 Cardinals on Tuesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

Ball State comes in off a 40-24 loss at home to Buffalo last Thursday, while the Redhawks fell 27-24 at home to EMU on Wednesday, putting the final nail in the coffin for Miami Ohio’s bowl hopes.

The Redhawks hurt themselves with two turnovers last week. Gus Ragland was 22 of 32 for 251 yards and a TD. Miami Ohio will finish ranked 71st in total offense and 38th in total defense.

The Cardinals’ Jack Milas had 127 yards and two TD’s last week, while Caleb Huntley added 141 yards on 26 carries. Ball State is ranked 118th overall on offense and 100th on the defensive side.

Miami Ohio is the better team, but it comes off the deflating, season ending loss just last week. Ball State has been out of it for a while but won’t be lacking for motivation in its final home game of the year (also note that the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six in this series.)

For all the reasons listed above, play on Ball State.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Chargers (4:05 EST).

The Bills were destroyed 47-10 at home to New Orleans last weekend, a beatdown so bad that the team has benched QB Tyrod Taylor in favor of backup Nate Peterman moving forward. Peterman was 7 of ten for 79 yards and a TD last week. 

Buffalo comes in ranked 28th in the league in total offense with just 292 YPG and 19th in scoring with 20.4 PPG, while the defense has been middle-of-the-pack, allowing 21.8, ranked 15th.

The Chargers rank 23rd in scoring with 18.6 PPG, while ranked ninth on the defensive side by conceding just 19.1 PPG. 

LA comes into this one with four losses of three points or fewer (after having five losses of four points or fewer last season.) 

The Chargers’ run game has been a weak point, but the Bills have been gouged for 492 yards on the ground over the last two weeks combined.

Last week LA QB Philip Rivers was 21 of 37 for 235 yards, two TD’s and an INT. 

I’ll point out that the Bills are just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 following a double-digit loss at home, while the Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last six in this series in front of the home town crowd.

If Melvin Gordon is going to have a break out performance, then this is the team to have it against. Rivers is going to have plenty of opportunities as well against this Bills team which is once again searching for an identity in all three phases. 

Lay the points with confidence as the Bolts lay down the hammer at home. 

Good luck…Larry

My 8* ODDSMAKER’S ERROR is on the Chicago Bears (1:00 EST).

The 5-4 Detroit Lions are in Chicago to take on the 3-6 Bears and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

Detroit comes in off a 38-14 win over Cleveland, while Chicago dropped a tough 23-16 decision at home to Green Bay. 

These teams split a pair of games last year, each being decided by a single field goal.

Detroit QB Matt Stafford has a 17/5 TD/INT ratio this year. Last weekend RB Ameer Abdullah had 52 yards on the ground, part of 104 total for the Lions. Stafford had 249 yards, three TD’s and an INT. 

The Lions looked poor defensively though, conceding 413 yards, including 201 on the ground.

Chicago allowed 342 total yards to the Packers last week. QB Mitchell Trubisky was 21 of 35 for 297 yards, a TD and no INT’s. Trubisky looked more comfortable last week and I expect that progression to once again get carried over here. RB Jeremy Howard had 54 yards on 15 carries. 

The strength of the Bears’ defense is against the pass, which is also in Chicago’s favor facing the Lions’ pass-centric offense.

I’ll point out as well that Detroit is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU wins, while Chicago is 6-3 ATS in its last nine off a loss against a division rival.

I’m expecting a nail-biter. Grab the points, play on the Bears.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the LA Rams (1:00 EST).

The Vikes have now won five in a row, coming out of their bye and getting the better of the Redskins last week. 

LA also comes in on top form, with wins over the Jags, Cards, Giants and Texans.

Last week the Rams posted the 33-7 victory over Houston. Jared Goff and Todd Gurley lead a dynamic offense, while the LA defense has been better than orginally advertised. 

Minnesota has Case Keenum under center now and he so far has 11 TD’s and five INT’s. Keenum has thrown at least one INT in four straight games and he had two in last week’s 38-30 win over Washington.

I’ll point out that LA is already 3-1 ATS on the road this year and 7-4 ATS in its last 11 “dome” games, while Minnesota is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after scoring 35 points or more in its previous contest. 

Ultimately I think that LA’s depth on the offensive side of the ball will win the day over the Vikes league leading defensive unit. Grab the points, play on the Rams.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* NFL Week 11 Las Vegas Insider GOY is on the GB Packers at 1:00 ET.

The 4-5 Baltimore Ravens are in Green Bay to take on the 5-4 Packers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

Baltimore last played on November 5th in Tennessee and lost to the Titans 23-20. 

Green Bay comes in with momentum with Brett Hundley under center, coming off an upset 23-16 victory at Chicago last Sunday. 

In the Ravens latest loss, QB Joe Flacco had 261 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s. The run game posted just 73 yards on 22 carries. 

Overall Baltimore is ranked 30th in total offense by averaging 286.6 YPG, while ranked in the middle of the pack defensively, allowing 184.7 YPG through the air and 125.9 on the ground. 

Green Bay ranks 23rd in total offense with an average of 313.7 YPG, while ranked 24th in total defense by conceding 353.6. Hundley though has started to find his groove and will benefit today from playing in front of the home town crowd.

I’ll point out as well that Baltimore is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine non-conference games (including 0-2 ATS this year) and just 7-12 ATS in its last 19 when playing the role of favorite, while Green Bay is 8-1 ATS in its last nine off a win against a division rival and 9-6 ATS in its last 15 as an underdog.

The Ravens were in “free fall” before their bye and I don’t think the extra time off is going to help their issues. Hundley meanwhile has gotten progressively better with each start and I look for that trend to continue on Sunday afternoon.

Play on Green Bay.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Boston College (7:00 EST).

The Eagles had their three-game win streak snapped in a tight 17-14 setack at home to NC State last Saturday, while UConn enters off a third straight setback, getting spanked 49-24 at No. 12 UCF last Saturday. 

If recent history is any precedence, then the Eagles have to be liking their chances today as they have in fact won the last five in this series, including a 30-0 victory at home last November 19th.

BC needs just one more win to become bowl eligible, so it won’t be leaving anything to chance this evening. 

The Eagles average 23.3 PPG and concede 24. QB Anthony Brown has 1,367 yards, 11 TD’s and nine INT’s, while RB Jon Hillman has 441 yards and three scores as well. 

The Huskies average 24.8 PPG and concede 39.4 QB Bryant Shirreffs has 2,287 passing yards, 14 TD’s and five INT’s. 

I’ll point out though that BC is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five after allowing less than 20 points in its previous contest, while UConn is a poor 5-22-2 ATS in its last 29 non-conference contests. 

BC is good defensively and it won’t be lacking for motivation tonight. I’m expecting another rout from start to finish. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on Illinois (3:30 EST).

The 2-8 Fighting Illini are in Ohio to take the 8-2 Buckeyes and while I’m obviously not expecting an upset today, I do definitely feel this is a few too many points to be giving up.

The Illini come in off a 24-14 loss to Indiana, while Ohio State bounced back from a setback to Iowa to smash Michigan State 48-3 at home. 

Note that when these teams played last year, not surprisingly it was Ohio State which scored the 28-3 victory. 

Illinois QB Jeff George Jr. has 1,273 passing yards, seven TD’s and ten INT’s. Last week he went for 261 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s. 

Ohio State QB JT Barrett looked a lot better last week, but he still threw two INT’s. Barrett has 2,564 passing yards and 30 TD’s this year. 

I’ll point out though that Illinois is 2-0 ATS in its last two as an underdog of 31 points or more, while Ohio State is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven as a favorite of 31 points or more.

I think this line is an over-reaction to last week’s annihilation of the Spartans. Clearly the Buckeyes are the better team, but Illinois has been competitve in most games this year and it’s defense is a strong point. Grab the points, play on the Illini.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* ODDSMAKER’S ERROR is on Kentucky (3:30 EST).

The 7-3 Kentucky Wildcats are at No. 7 Georgia to take on the 9-1 Bulldogs on Saturday afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

Georgia was crushed 40-17 by Auburn last week and I think it’ll have a predictable letdown here.

Kentucky enters with a ton of momentum, posting the 44-21 road win over Vanderbilt last Saturday. 

Note that this is a revenge game for the Wildcats as well after Georgia edged Kentucky 27-24 on the road last year. 

Last week Kentucky posted 427 total yards and forced four INTS’s and held the Commodores to just 60 yards rushing on 20 carries. 

Wildcats’ QB Stephen Johnson was 13 of 17 for 195 yards and was complimented by RB Ben Snell Jr. who has 116 yards and three TD’s. Note that Kentucky has been exceptional against the run this year, holding opponents to just 121.9 YPG thus far.

Georgia RB Nick Chubb was held to 27 yards on 11 carries last week. QB Jake From was 13 of 28 for 184 yards and one meaningless TD at the end of the game. 

I’ll point out that Kentucky is 2-0 ATS in its last two as a road dog of 21.5 points or more, while Georgia is 0-3 ATS in its last three as a favorite in the 21.5 to 31 points range. 

I like the Wildcats to take advantage of a Bulldogs team still dwelling on last week’s loss and while I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, I do absolutely expect this one to be a lot closer than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe.

Grab the points, play on Kentucky.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Baylor (2:30 EST). 

Iowa State became bowl eligible and has since dropped two straight. The Cyclones will look to get back on track here, but I think that the home side offers great value in an upset role.

The Cyclones are now also officially out of contention for the Big 12 title after falling to Oklahoma State last weekend. Can anyone say “letdown spot?!” 

Iowa State QB Kyle Kempt left at halftime with an injury last week, forcing Zeb Noland into action and while the backup looked good in the 49-42 defeat in his limited time, starting on the road even at lowly Baylor is a tall order and a quick turnaround. 

After beating Kansas, the Bears fell 38-24 to Texas Tech last Saturday. QB Charlie Brewer was 43 of 63 for 417 yards, three TD’s and one INT. I like Brewer to carry over his momentum here in front of the home town crowd.

Note that Iowa State is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten on field turf, while Baylor is 8-5 ATS in its last 13 as an underdog. 

The Bears are terrible, but Brewer has been a bright spot. I like the gun-slinger to keep his team in this one late, so grab as many points as you can.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on Virgnia (12:00 EST).

Virginia is bowl eligible already, but it comes off its third loss in its last four games, falling 38-21 at Louisville last weekend. Miami can now feel the pressure as it’s still unbeaten after steamrolling Notre Dame 41-8 last week. 

Note that this is a revenge game for Virginia as well, as Miami has taken the last two, including 34-14 on the road on November 12, 2016. 

The Cavs rank 47th in the country in passing offense with an average of 251.8 YPG. Overall the team ranks 85th in scoring with 25.8 PPG, while ranked 67th on the defensive side by conceding 26.6 points.

QB Kurt Benkert has 2,492 yards, 21 TD’s and just seven INT’s. RB Olamide Zaccheaus has caught 70 passes for 727 yards, four TD’s and had added 22 carries for 153 yards and another score on the ground.

Miami averages 32.6 PPG, while conceding just 16.6. QB Malik Rosier has 2,410 yards, 20 TD’s and seven INT’s. RB Travis Homer has 758 yards and six scores on the ground. 

I’ll point out though that Virginia is 3-1 ATS this year against teams with winning records and 16-9 ATS in its last 25 when playing the role of underdog. 

I think the Hurricanes manage the win, but I like Virginia to keep this one much more interesting than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* NON-CONF GAME OF THE YEAR is on UNLV (9:30 EST).

UNLV will need to win its final two games of the year to become bowl eligible. With a date against 2-8 Nevada next weekend, the Runnin’ Rebels have a very real shot at actually reaching the six win plateau with a big effort today.

New Mexico needed to win last week to keep its bowl hopes alive, but it instead got annihilated 55-14 by Texas A&M. 

With nothing left to play for, we expect the Lobos to come in disinterested and flat-footed this week.

The Rebels average 29.2 PPG and allow 32.3. QB Armani Rodgers has 1,100 yards, five TD’s and five INT’s, while also adding 538 yards on the ground and another sixscores. Johnny Stanton has 724 yards passing, four TD’s and two INT’s threw the air and 96 yards plus two major scores on the ground. 

The Lobos average 22.3 PPG and concede 30.9 QB Lamar Jordan has 593 yards passing along with three TD’s and five INT’s. 

I’ll point out though that the Runnin Rebels are 4-0 ATS in their last four following an ATS loss, while the Lobos are 0-4 ATS in their last four after posting less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. 

I like the “hungrier” team to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. 

Play on UNLV.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the PIttsburgh Steelers (8:25 EST).

The 6-3 Tennessee Titans are in Pittsburgh to take on the 7-2 Steelers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

It wasn’t pretty, but the Steelers battled tough and scored the 20-17 win in Indianpolis last weekend, while the Titans also rallied to post the 24-20 win at home over the Bengals. 

Both teams are on fire, but I don’t think that the home field advantage factor can be overlooked in this case. 

Both teams come in off victories, but neither looked overly impressive. Each will be looking for a bounce back performance, but the trends support the home side in this spot, as note that Tennessee is a poor 1-4 ATS in its last eight after two or more consecutive SU victories (including 0-2 already this year) and just 6-14 ATS in its last 20 on the road (including only 1-3 ATS this season), while Pittsburgh is 11-6 ATS its last 17 at home (including 2-1 ATS this year) and 9-6 ATS in its last 15 against teams with winning records (including 2-0 ATS this season.)

Tennessee has been great in stopping the run, ranked seventh, but horrible against the pass, ranked 28th. 

And that doesn’t bode well facing big Ben Roethlisberger, who will be out to atone for last week’s near disaster.

The Pittsburgh defense though has been superb, ranked second in the NFL in overall yards given up per game (284.4)

The Steelers’ defense has been remarkable of late, allowing 20 or less points in four straight games. 

I think the Titans have a letdown on the short week in this tough atmosphere and I look for the veteran Roethlisberger to take full advantage.

Lay the points, play on the Steelers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Ball State (7:00 EST).

Buffalo will need to win its final two games to become bowl eligible. A date against the lowly 2-8 Ball State Cardinals is just what the doctor ordered this week.

However with a date against 8-2 Ohio in the season finale, the Bulls’ chances of actually reaching the six win plateau this year are extremely small.

The Bobcats will be fighting until the final whistle as they try to capture the league crown. With that sad fact already in the front of their brains, I do think that the Bulls are set up for a small letdown this weekend.

Buffalo averages 27.3 PPG and concedes 25 PPG. QB Tyree Jackson has 1,452 yards, six TD’s and two INT’s, while also adding another 220 on the ground and four more major scores.

Ball State averages 18.4 PPG and concedes 42. QB Riley Neal has 658 yards, six TD’s and three INT’s, while also rushing for another 67. Caleb Huntley has been a strong in the ground attack with 703 yards and three TD’s. 

I’ll point out though that Buffalo has struggled in this spot for bettors for a while now, going just 2-4 ATS n its last six off a win against a conference rival.

And note, as horrible as Ball State has been, it’s actually 2-1 ATS in its last three as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range.

I like the home side to keep this one interesting. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH is on Northern Illinois (7:00 EST).

Northern Illinois is now 7-3 after last week’s 63-17 annihilation of Ball State. The Huskies sit just a game back of Toledo in the West Division of the MAC and they’re tied with the Rockets at 5-1 in Conference play. 

Western Michigan on the other hand looks primed for an immediate letdown in my opinion after posting its sixth win of the year in last week’s 48-20 win over Kent. 

Note that this is a revenge game for Northern Illinois as well after WMU took this game at home 45-30 last season. 

The Broncos average 36.6 points and concede 27.6. Jarvion Franklin has 1,061 rushing yards and ten TD’s this year and had 191 yards and a major score against the Golden Flashes last week.

WMU is one of the best rushing teams in the nation, but that unfortunately plays right into the strength of the Huskies defense, which is tenth against the run in the nation.

Northern Illinois averages 30.3 PPG, while conceding just 18.8 PPG on the defensive side.

I’ll point out as well that WMU is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after scoring 40 points or more in its previous contest, while Northern Illinois is 13-5-2 ATS in its last 20 following a SU win over more than 20 points. 

The Broncos are going back to a bowl, which is mission accomplished for a team which lost a lot from last year’s squad that went undefeated until its bowl game. 

I like the Huskies to put the foot on the gas from start to finish and I expect WMU to throw in the white towel early.

Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on Akron (7:00 EST).

The 8-2 Ohio Bobcats are in Akron to take on the 5-5 Zips and while I’ll stop short in calling for an outright upset, I do definitely feel that the desperate home side will keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

Ohio comes in off a 38-10 win over Toledo, while Akron lost 24-14 to Miami Ohio. Last year these two teams played to a very tight decision, with the Bobcats holding on for the eventual 9-3 victory from Ohio. 

Bobcats’ QB Nathan Rourke was just seven of 15 for 139 yards, a TD and a pick last week, but he did add 115 yards rushing. In all Ohio racked up 393 rushing yards last week.

Akron will be out to atone for it’s effort last Saturday, producing just 273 total yards of offense against the Redhawks. QB Kato Nelson was 19 of 38 for 218 yards and a TD. 

I’ll point out though that Ohio is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a road favorite in the 10.5 to 14 points range, while Akron is 2-1 ATS this year against teams with winning records.

The Zips are running out of chances and need one more win to become bowl eligible. Akron won’t be lacking in motivation today. Ohio has two cream puffs to end the season, with a date at Buffalo next weekend, so it could be caught looking ahead as well.

Outright upset? Probably not. But all signs point to this one being decided late. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Denver Broncos (8:30 EST).

The 6-2 New England Patriots are in Denver to take on the desperate 3-5 Broncos and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Now, I’m not suggesting to “sprinkle” a little on the money line, but I do definitely think this one will be a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The Pats come to town off their bye week, last beating the Chargers 21-13 at home. 

The Broncos lost their fourth straight in a 51-23 setback on the road at red hot Philadelphia last weekend. 

So far the Pats are seventh in the league in scoring with 27 PPG, while ranked 16th on the defensive side in conceding 22.4. QB Tom Brady has 2,541 yards, 16 TD’s and two INT’s this season.

Brady though has been sacked 21 times. Mike Gillislee leads the rushing attack with 355 yards and four major scores.

This is it for Denver, as another loss will almost assuredly have the team planning for next season. 

So far the Broncos rank 22nd in the leauge in scoring with 18.8 PPG, while ranked 25th defensively in conceding 24.8. QB Trevor Siemian has 1,669 yards with nine TD’s and ten INT’s. CJ Anderson has 482 yards and two TD’s. 

I’ll point out though that Denver is 11-8 ATS in its last 19 at home (including 2-1 ATS this season) and still 9-6 ATS in its last 15 as an underdog, while New England is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a road favorite of 7.5 to ten points. 

Denver’s defense remains its strength and I think it’s going to come up big at home here. The outright upset? Probably not. But all signs point to a nail-biter. I’m grabbing the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the LA Rams (4:05 EST).

The 3-5 Houston Texans are in LA to take on the 6-2 Rams and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

LA comes in off three straight wins, while the Texans are reeling after two straight losses.

Houston staring QB DeShaun Watson was lost to injury and backup Tom Savage was just 19 of 44 for 219 yards and one TD in the 20-14 loss to the Colts. 

In all the Texans were outgained 371 to 288. 

LA seems on a mission now that it’s left St. Louis. LA is ranked third in total offense this year with 382.1 YPG. In fact, Jared Goff and Todd Gurley lead the league’s No. 1 scoring offense with 32.9 PPG. Last week Goff had four TD’s in the win over the Giants.

Gurley meanwhile has a league-high ten major scores. 

I’ll point out as well that Houston is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games against teams with a winning home record, while LA is 3-1 ATS in its last four after a three game unbeaten streak. 

In the two games since Savage took over as QB, the Texans have managed seven and 14 points total in those two contests.

I like Goff to continue his hot play and for the Rams’ defensive unit to come up big against the “gassed” Texans offense. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NFL Week 10 Las Vegas Insider is on the Was Redskins at 1:00 ET.

The Vikings are sitting pretty in the NFC North at 6-2, as only the Lions are above .500 (5-4) in the division. They are also off a bye week plus come into this contest on a four-game winning streak. However, let's take a closer look at those four wins. First came the Bears (now 3-5) in Mitch Trubisky’s first start, then the Packers in a game in which Aaron Rodgers got KO’d early. Up next were the slumping Ravens (in the midst of losing four of five games), and then win-less Browns in London (Cleveland is 0-8 and 1-23 since the start of 2016). Let's just say, not exactly a Murderer's Row!

The Redskins are still right in the mix for one of two NFC wild card spots, after their timely 17-14 win last Sunday in Seattle. QB Kirk Cousins is completing 67.9% with 13 TDs and four INTs, for a QB rating of 102.0. That comes on the heels of him completing 68.3% with a 54-23 TD-to-INT ratio, with QB ratings of 101.6 and 97.2. The ONLY organization that thinks he's not a top-flight QB in the NFL is the Redskins. Maybe they would prefer Minnesota's Case Keenum. I prefer Cousins and the Redskins in this one.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (1:00 EST).

The 6-2 Pittsburgh Steelers are in Indianapolis to take on the 3-6 Colts and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

Pittsburgh posted a 20-15 road win over Detroit in its latest action, while Indianapolis definitely looks primed for a letdown here after its shcoking 20-13 victory at Houston last Sunday. 

The Steelers have to be feeling pretty confident here, because when these teams met last year it was Pittsburgh that won easily 28-7, with QB Ben Roethlisberger throwing three TD’s, while RB Le’Veon Bell had 120 yards. 

Roethlisberger had 317 yards in the victory over the Detroit. Bell had 75 yards on 25 carries. 

The Steelers uncharacteristically gave up 482 yards to the Lions, but they came up clutch in the most important moments, holding Detroit to 0 for 5 in the red zone. Pittsburgh enters out of its bye having won three straight.

Indianpolis QB Jacoby Brissett was 20 of 30 for 307 yards, two TD’s and an INT last week, while RB Frank Gore had 51 rushing yards on 17 carries. 

The Colts’ defense looked sharp, holding the Texans to 288 total yards.

I’m not reading too much into the one decent performance though. Houston had just lost a 41-38 game against the Seahawks on the road and clearly it looked out of gas last week. 

Indianapolis snapped a three game slide, but remains in last place in the AFC South.

Additionally I’ll point out that the Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last six after posing less than 90 rushing yards in their previous game, while the Colts a horrible 1-9-1 ATS in theit last 11 following a SU victory. 

Indianapolis owns the league’s worst defense, allowing an average of 29 PPG. And that’s music to a well rested “Big Ben” and company.

I’m expecting a rout from start to finish. Play on the Steelers.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on Hawaii (11:00 EST).

The 6-3 Fresno State Bulldogs are in Hawaii to take on the 3-6 Rainbow Warriors. I’m not going to call for an outright victory, but I do think that the hungry home side can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The Bulldogs looked pretty bad in their win over a horrible BYU team last week. QB Marcus McMaryion was 14 of 20 for 174 yards and no TD’s. RB Jordan Mims had 54 yards and two TD’s. 

Fresno State’s strength has been on the defensive side of the ball, holding teams to an average of 18 PPG. 

With the win though, the Bulldogs have become bowl eligible and suffice it to say, i think they’re primed for a letdown here. 

The Warriors have lost two straight, most recently a hard-fought 31-23 setback to UNLV. QB Dru Brown was 24 of 47 for 269 yards and a TD. RB Diccemy Saint Juste had 111 yards rushing and a TD on 20 carries. 

I’ll point out though that Fresno State is already 1-2 ATS this year against teams with losing records and only 2-3 ATS in its last five as a favorite, while Hawaii is 2-1 ATS in its last three after allowing 30 points or more in its previous contest.

I like the Warriors to play for pride today and to at the very least, sneak in through the back door down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover.

Play on Hawaii.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on Washington State (5:30 EST).

The 8-2 Washington State Cougars are in Utah to take on the 5-4 Utes and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visiting side.

The Cougars got back on track with a 24-21 upset win at home over then No. 21 Stanford last weekend after it had dropped two of three coming in. 

The Utes snapped a four-game slide with a 48-17 win over UCLA last Friday night. 

WSU is ranked second in the country with an average of 381.7 passing YPG. Overall the Cougars are tied for 33rd in averaing 33 PPG. Defensively the teams ranks 39th by conceding just 22.7.

Washington State QB Luke Falk has 2,913 yards, 26 TD’s and one INT this season. In last week’s win the Cougars held a dominant 430-198 advantage in total offense.

Utah averages 255.3 passing yards per game and is ranked 58th overall in total offense by putting up 29.4 PPG. The defense has also been decent, conceding 23.1 per contest.

QB Tyler Huntley has 1,648 passing yards, 12 TD’s and six INT’s on the season. RB Zack Moss leads the way on the ground with 740 yards and three major scores.

I’ll point out though that WSU is 4-1 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records, while the Utes are just 1-4 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a winning road record.

The Cougars’ are the more complete team over all three phases and I also give a big nod to Falk over Huntley at the QB position as well. Play on Washington State.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Wisconsin (3:30 EST).

The 6-2 Iowa Hawkeyes are in Wisconsin to take on the 9-0 Badgers on Saturday afternoon and for a number of different reasons I think this one favors the still unbeaten home side.

Iowa earned its sixth win of the year in an epic 55-24 win over then No. 3 Ohio State last weekend to become bowl eligible. I had the Hawkeyes in that one. But that was then and this is now.

Iowa definitely looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion. 

The Hawkeyes picked off JT Barrett four times, including one that was returned for a TD by Amani Hooker on the first offensive play of the game. QB Nathan Stanley was 20 of 31 for 226 yards and five TD’s. 

Wisconsin was down 10-0 early against Indiana last week, but then poured it on in the second half for another convincing victory. RB Jonathan Taylor had 183 yards and a TD. QB Alex Hornibrook was 13 of 20 for 158 yards, two TD’s and an INT. 

As good as the Badgers have looked offensively of late, it’s been their defense which has gotten the job done all year, ranking fifth in the country in yards allowed per game with 267.8. 

Additionally I’ll point out that Iowa is 0-4 ATS in its last four following an ATS win and just 1-4 ATS in its last five road games, while Wisconsin is interestingly 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games played in the month of November.

The Badgers are on a mission. The Hawkeyes are contented and eligible. Should be a beatdown from start to finish, lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Michigan State (12:00 EST).

The 7-2 Michigan State Spartans are in Ohio State to take on the 7-2 Buckeyes and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

Michigan State looks to keep the momentum rolling after its 27-24 home win over Penn State, while Ohio State is reeling after its humbling 55-24 beatdown loss to Iowa State last Saturday.

Note that when these teams played last year, it was Ohio State that notched the 17-16 victory. 

I’m not suggesting that you sprinkle any on the money line, but I do definitely feel that the surging and revenge minded Spartans will keep this one competitive until the final moments. 

Michigan State looked impressive defensively last week, holding Penn State to 466 total yards, while also collecting three INT’s. QB Brian Lewerke was 33 of 56 for 400 yards, two TD’s and an INT. So far he has 2,207 yards passing and a 16/5 TD/INT ratio. WR Felton Davis III had 181 receiving yards and a TD. 

Ohio State QB JT Barrett was 18 of 34 for 208 yards, three TD’s and four INT’s in last week’s shocking upset loss. The Buckeyes looked horrible defensively, allowing 487 total yards. 

I’ll point out as well that Michigan State is 5-1 ATS in its last six after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in its previous game, while Ohio State is just 1-5 ATS in its last six home games following an ATS loss and only 1-6 ATS in its last seven against teams with winning records.

The Spartans have proven that they can play with the best teams in the country, while the pressure is clearly getting to Barrett and company. Grab as many points as you can, play on Michigan State.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on North Carolina State (12:00 EST).

The 6-3 NC State Wolfpack are in Boston College to take on the 5-4 Eagles and in my opinion, this one favors the visitors. 

I think BC is poised for a letdown here after three straight wins over Louisville, Virginia and Florida State. 

NC State will look to get back on track now after its 38-31 loss at home to No. 4 Clemson last week. 

Boston College’s momentum and chemistry will be disrupted because of the team’s “bye week” as well in my opinion. 

Additionally I’ll point out that this is a revenge game for NC State after BC won the game 21-14 on the road last year. 

NC State had a 21-17 halftime lead against Clemson, but the Wolfpack was unable to sustain its momentum for a full four quarters. QB Ryan Finley threw for 339 yards against a tough Tigers’ defense. On the year Finley has 15 TD’s and just three INT’s.  WR Kelvin Harmon had eight catches for 155 yards in the loss. 

The Wolfpack rank 30th in overall offense by averaging 447.3 YPG, while ranked 57th on the defensive side in conceding 387.2. 

Boston College is ranked 96th in total offense with 370.1 YPG, while ranked 76th in conceding 397.9. QB Anthony Brown was just 6 of 20 for 54 yards and a TD in the win over FSU back on October 27th. 

In all the Eagles’ held FSU to just 213 total yards while forcing three turnovers. Note though that as good as BC is defensively, it still struggles mightily against the run in allowing an average of 206.2 YPG.

I’ll point out as well that NC State is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a SU loss, while BC is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after three or more consecutive ATS covers.

BC’s strength on offense is its run game, which doesn’t bode well facing the Wolfpack’s 31st ranked run defense.

I like NC State to continue its road success (has already beaten FSU and Pittsburgh on the road.) Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on Cincinnati (7:00 EST).

The 4-5 Temple Owls are in Cincinnati to take on the 3-6 Bearcats and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

The Bearcats will need to run the table to reach the six win plateau, but they kept the dream alive in last week’s 17-16 win over Tulane. Temple also enters off a victory over Navy, but I think it will have a letdown here. 

Last week Temple QB Frank Nutile was 22 of 30 for 289 yards, four TD’s and a pick. WR Adonis Jennings had 127 yards and two TD’s (was just the first time this season that he’s reached over 100 yards though.)

Bearcats RB Mike Boone had just 20 yards on six carries last week, but he also had the go-ahead TD. Gerrid Doaks was also a standout with 149 yards rushing on 17 carries. 

I’ll point out as well that Temple is just 1-3 ATS In its last four as a road fav of three points or less, while Cincinnati is 5-2 ATS in its last seven against teams with losing records. 

I like the Bearcats at home here. Both teams face an uphill battle to reach six wins, but I don’t think that the home field advantage factor can be discounted in this particular matchup. Play on Cincinnati.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on Appalachian State (7:30 EST).

The 0-8 Georgia Southern Eagles are limping towards the finish line, while the 5-4 Appalachian State Mountaineers are on the cusp of eligiblity. 

The Eagles most recently fell 21-17 at home to Georgia State on Saturday. The Mountaineers though won’t want to leave anything to chance today after dropping two straight, as they’ll look to lay the hammer down from start to finish.

Appalachian State most recently lost a 52-45 shootout against Louisiana Monroe on the road last weekend. 

And if recent history is any precedence, then Appalachian State has to be liking it chances today because when these team’s played last year, it was the Mountaineers which came away with the convincing 34-10 victory. 

Georgia Southern is terrible, ranked 122nd in the country in scoring with just 17.6 PPG, while ranked 124th on the defensive end by conceding 38.4. QB Shai Werts has 650 yards passing, four TD’s and four INT’s this year. Wesley Fields leads the way on the ground with 494 yards and three carries.

Appalachian State averages 31.3 PPG and allows 25.9. QB Taylor Lamb has 2,096 yards, with 19 TD’s and just four INT’s this season (also has 366 rushing yards and three more major scores.) 

I’ll point out that Georgia Southern is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in its previous game, while Appalachian State is interestingly 3-1 ATS in its last four “Thursday night” games.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Mountaineers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Western Michigan (7:00 EST).

The 2-7 Kent State Golden Flashes are in Western Michigan to take on the 5-4 bowl hopeful Broncos on Wednesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the hungry home side.

The Flashes come in off a 44-16 home loss to Bowling Green, while WMU fell flat in a 35-28 home loss to Central Michigan last weekend.

Kent State’ QB George Gollas was just 16 of 35 for 140 yards, no TD’s and three INT’s last week. Leading rusher Justin Rankin posted just 39 yards on four carries. The defense was once again a weak point, surrendering 401 total yards, including 227 on the ground. 

WMU’ QB Reece Goddard was just six of 18 for 42 yards and one INT last week. QB Jon Wassink was injured, so Goddard was pressed into duty. With that awkward game behind him though, I think Goddard will be a lot better this weekend.

Goddard will once again be leaning heavily on senior RB Jarvion Franklin, who had 228 yards along with two TD’s in the losing cause. 

The Broncos’ defense catches a break this week though facing the impotent Kent State offense. 

I’ll point out as well that Kent State is just 1-5 ATS in its last six road games against a team with a winning home record, while WMU is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 following an ATS loss.

The favorite is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 in this series and I look for all of these strong trends to continue as the Broncos take advantage of this favorable matchup and punch their ticket to a bowl berth. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Buffalo (7:30 EST).

The 2-7 Bowling Green Falcons are in Buffalo to take on the 3-6 Bulls and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

Bowling Green comes in off a 44-16 win over lowly Kent State for just its second win of the year last week and looks primed for an immediate letdown here. QB Jarret Doege was 14 of 18 for 178 yards and two TD’s in the victory. Note though that it was the first time that the Green Falcons had allowed under 20 points. 

The Bulls have three games left to get to six wins and will need to sweep the board. While that’s likely out of the question, they can only take it one game at a time and first up is Bowling Green.

Buffalo could easily have a much better record at this point as well, as its lost by a combined 15 points during its current four game slide, including a tough 21-20 setback at Akron in its latest. QB Tyree Jackson had 313 yards, but failed to find the end zone in that one.

I’ll point out though that Bowling Green is just 1-6 ATS this year as an underdog and only 3-5 ATS in its last eight as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while Buffalo is 3-1 ATS at home already this year and 3-1 ATS in its last four against teams with losing records.

The Green Falcons have given up an average of 35.4 points per game this year, which doesn’t bode well facing his hungry Bulls side in my opinion.

For all the reasons listed above, play on Buffalo.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* NFC NORTH GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Detroit Lions (8:30 EST).

The 3-4 Detroit Lions are in Green Bay to take on the 4-3 Packers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

This is a double revenge scenario for the Lions as well after the Packers took both games from them last season.

That was of course with star QB Aaron Rodgers under center. But Rodgers is injured and lost for the year, meaning that Green Bay backup Brent Hundley has been forced into the spot light.

Two weeks ago Hundley made his first start at home against the Saints and he looked horrible, going just 12 of 25 for 87 yards, no TD’s and a pick. RB Aaron Jones had 131 yards on 17 carries with a TD, but note that the Lions are seventh in the league against the run, allowing only 91.6 rushing yards per game. 

In last week’s loss to the Steelers, Lions’ QB Matt Stafford did everything but find the endzone unfortunately, finishing 27 of 45 for 423 yards. 

Admittedly the Lions’ run game is horrible, but Stafford catches a break this week in facing the Packers’ 16th ranked pass defense which gives up 223.1 YPG. 

Note as well that Detroit is 3-1 ATS in its last four Monday night games, while Green Bay is just 1-5 ATS in its last six following a SU loss.

Stafford isn’t the highest paid QB in the history of the NFL for nothing. If he can’t get the better of Hundley today, then there is something seriously wrong in Detroit. I’m banking on Stafford answering the call though and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. 

Play on the Lions.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Arizona Cardinals (4:05 EST).

The San Francisco 49ers traded a 2018 second-round draft pick for New England Patriots QB Jimmy Garoppolo on Monday night. However, Garoppolo is not expected to start Sunday against the Cardinals, as C.J. Beathard will remain starter for now.

Brian Hoyer started the first six games for San Fran but was benched in favor of C.J. Beathard in the team's loss to Washington on Oct. 16. Beathard has started the past two games, going 39 of 74 for 402 yards with one TD and two interceptions. However, after losing five straight games by three points or less, the 49ers have lost 40-10 and 33-10 with Beathard starting. San Francisco is now a pathetic 1-22 SU last 23 (only win was 22-21 over Rams in Week 17 of 2016), falling to 0-8 to open the 2017 season, the first time that's happened in franchise history.

Drew Stanton was the fifth QB drafted in 2007 (43rd overall pick) and the only one still on an NFL roster, See if you can find Jamarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Kevin Kolb and John Beck these days on any NFL rosters? He came to Arizona in 2014 and will be making his 10th regular season start (6-3 first nine). Stanton has the raw arm and athleticism to put points on the board.

Arizona has excelled in this spot for bettors as well, going 2-1 ATS in its last three off a loss against a conference rival and 11-3 ATS in its last 14 in all games where the line was set between +3 and -3.

Conversely, the 49ers have really struggled in this position for bettors, going just 5-6 ATS in their last 11 games where the line in the contest is between +3 and -3 and only 10-14 ATS their last 24 after two or more consecutive SU losses. 

I’m banking on Stanton doing just enough to secure his team the victory here. Play on Arizona.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Washington Redskins (4:05 EST).

The 3-4 Washington Redskins are in Seattle to take on the 5-2 Seahawks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

Washington will be hungry here after its 33-19 home loss to Dallas, while I think Seattle looks primed for a letdown after its thrilling, last-second 41-38 win over Houston at home last week.

The Redskins so far average 22.9 PPG, while conceding 25.7. Clearly that’s not a recipie for success. Last week QB Kirk Cousins was 26 of 39 for 263 yards, a TD and an INT. Cousins has been solid so far with 1,900 yards, 13 TD’s and four INT’s this season. In fact, Cousins 103.3 QBR is third overall.

The Hawks are averaging 25.0 PPG and conceding 18.9, ranked seventh. QB Russell Wilson was 26 of 41 for 452 yards, four TD’s and an INT last weekend. The run game was non-existent though, producing just 33 yards in the win over Houston.

That’s not going to get the job done most weekends. 

I think Cousins and the desperate visiting side will have their opportunities today, just like the Texans did last week.

I’ll also point out that the Redskins are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games and 7-3 ATS their last ten against teams with winning records, while Seattle is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten following a straight up victory. 

Ultimately I feel that Cousins will be able to keep his team competitive until the final moments. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Cincinnati Bengals (1:00 EST).

The 3-4 Cincinnati Bengals look to move back to .500 with a win in Jacksonville against the 4-3 Jaguars this afternoon.

It wasn’t pretty, but the Bengals bounced back and edged Indianapolis 24-23 last week. Jacksonville has so far been better than advertised this season, but I think it’s going to show some signs of rust after its bye week, previous to that smashing the Colts 27-0 the last time it was on the field of play.

Cincinnati gave up 331 yards, including 115 rushing last week. The Bengals’ defense has been a strength this year and I think it’s going to be a difference maker this afternoon as well. After a very slow start to the year, the Bengals have now won three of four.

QB Andy Dalton started slowly as well and has since been getting into a groove, for the season he has an 11/8 TD/INT ratio. WR AJ Green has 572 receiving yards and four TD’s.

Jacksonville QB Blake Bortles has been inconsistent from game-to-game this year as well and so far has 1,398 passing yards and a 9/5 TD/INT. 

The Jaguars have also been getting above average defensive play, holding Indianapolis to just 232 yards last week. Note that Jacksonville is particularly tough against the run, but does have issues against the pass.

Which of course doesn’t bode well in facing Dalton in my opinion. Additionally I’ll point out that Cincinnati is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 on the road, while Jacksonville is just 4-11 ATS in its last 15 at home.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Bengals.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on Miami Florida (8:00 EST).

The 7-1 Virginia Tech Hokies are at Miami-Florida to take on the 7-0 Hurricanes and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

The Hokies enter off a 24-3 win over Duke on Saturday, while Miami Florida nudged by UNC 24-19 on the road this past weekend. 

Note that this is a revenge game for the Hurricanes after they fell 37-16 on the road in VT last year.

Hokies’ QB Josh Jackson has 2,032 yards with 17 TD’s and four picks this year. So far Virginia Tech averages 446.5 YPG of offense, while conceding just 284.5, ranked 9th. RB Deshaw McClease had 75 yards and a TD last week.

Miami QB Malik Rosier wasn’t at his best last week, going 16 of 38 for 356 yards, three TD’s and one INT. The defense was adequate, holding a desperate UNC team to 428 total yards (note though that the Hurricanes did force four turnovers.) 

I’ll point out as well that Virginia Tech has in fact struggled in this spot for bettors for a while, going just 6-7 ATS in its last 13 on the road and only 4-6 ATS in its last ten as a road favorite, while Miami is still 9-7 ATS in its last 16 at home and interestingly, 6-2 ATS in its last eight games played in the month of November. 

I think the Hokies have a letdown here in this tough atmosphere against the revenge-minded Hurricanes. Play on Miami.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Iowa (12:00 EST).

The 7-1 Ohio State Buckeyes are in Iowa to take on the 5-3 Hawkeyes and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

Ohio State is coming off a thrilling come-from-behind win over former No. 2 Penn State last weekend and I think it is primed for a bit of a mental letdown here after that emotional victory.

Iowa comes in off a 17-10 home win over Minnesota. The Hawkeyes are seeking their sixth win of the year and they also play with revenge here after falling 34-24 at Ohio State last season. 

Ohio State QB JT Barett had three TD’s in the fourth quarter to pull away for the 39-38 win over Penn State on Saturday. The Nittany Lions had a 28-10 lead in the second quarter. Barrett finished 33 of 39 for 326 yards, four TD’s and no INT’s. 

So far the Buckeyes rank third in the nation on offense in posting 571.2 YPG, while the defense ranks 12th in conceding 302.5.

Iowa is ranked 104th in the nation on offense with an average of 345.2 YPG, while ranked 48th on defense in conceding 370.1 YPG. 

Nathan Stanley was just 15 of 27 for 190 yards, one TD and one pick for the Hawkeyes last weekend, but it was the defense which was the difference maker, holding Minnesota to 281 total yards, including only 139 through the air. 

Stanley overall on the year though has been solid, with 1,698 passing yards with 17 TD’s and just four INT’s. 

Additionally I’ll point out that Ohio State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS loss, while Iowa is already 3-1 ATS this season in front of the home town crowd.

Iowa needs one more win for a postseason invite and it comes in off a confidence building victory in which its defense completely domianted. The Hawkeyes also play with revenge this afternoon.

The Buckeyes looked poised for a big letdown here though after their come from behind victory last week and while I’ll stop short in calling for an outright win, I do definitely feel this is too many points to be giving up to this highly motivated Iowa side. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Nebraska (3:30 EST).

5-3 Northwestern is at 4-4 Nebraska on Saturday afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the hungry home side.

I base my selections on many different things and this one sets up great from a situational angle.

I simply feel that Northwestern is poised for a letdown here after three straight wins, including two straight in OT (39-31 over MSU last time out.) 

And with a “cream puff” at home against 2-6 Purdue next weekend, the Wildcats still have chances to punch their much sought after sixth win of the season. 

Nebraska on the other hand is running out of chances, it most recently gutted out the 25-24 win at Purdue last weekend.  

The Wildcats have struggled in this spot for bettors as well, going just 1-3 ATS in their last four after scoring more than 37 points in an OT victory, while Nebraska has excelled in this spot, going 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring 25 points or more in its previous game.

From a situational stand point, this is as good as it gets in my opinion. Play on Nebraska.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on Florida State (12:20 EST).

The 4-4 Syracuse Orange are at Florida State to take on the desperate 2-5 Seminoles, who must now “run the table” if they have any hopes at all at going “bowling” this year. 

The Seminoles are coming off a humbling 35-3 loss at Boston College, while Syracuse has been off since falling 27-19 to Miami Florida on October 21st. 

The Orange went to Miami off a massive 27-24 win over Clemson, but had a predictable letdown. Syracuse averages 455 yards per game, while allowing 367.9. QB Eric Dungey was just 13 of 41 for 137 yards and four INT’s in the loss to the ‘Canes. Dungey has been fantastic overall this year, but one has to wonder if he peaked too early. 

Seminoles’ QB James Blackman was just 11 of 26 for 102 yards and a pick last week. Overall FSU fumbled the ball twice. The offense is averaging just 335.6 YPG, but the defense remains one of the best in the nation, ranked 31st in yards allowed per game with 347.3 per contest, including 26th against the pass with 189.1 per game.

Additionally I’ll point out that Syracuse is just 2-3 ATS in its last five against teams with losing records and 0-2 ATS the last two years following its bye week., while Florida State is 4-3 ATS in its last seven off a loss against a conference rival and interestingly, 7-1 ATS in its last eight games played in the month of November.

I’m banking on Blackman having his best game of the year against this “flat footed” Orange defense and I think Dungey is going to be in for a shock against this talented and hungry Seminoles’ elite defensive unit. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* C-USA GAME OF THE YEAR is on Florida Atlantic (6:00 EST).

The 6-2 Marshall Thundering Herd are at Florida Atlantic to take on the 5-3 Owls and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

Mashall enters off a 41-30 home loss to FIU, while FAU rolled to a 42-28 win over WKU on the road last weekend. 

Note that this is a revenge game for the Owls, who fell at Marshall 27-21 last season. Combined with the fact that FAU needs one more win to become bowl eligible, there’s no question in my mind that the more motivated side is the Owls.

Marshall ranks 64th in the country in scoring with 28.4 PPG, while ranked 15th on the defensive side in conceding only 17.6. The defense looked horrible last weekend though, giving up 401 total yards. QB Chase Litton was 33 of 52 for three TD’s, but also had two INT’s (one which was returned for a TD.) 

FAU is ranked 15th in scoring with 39.5 PPG, while ranked 69th on the defensive side in conceding 26.8. RB Devin Singletary had 224 yards and four TD’s in last weekend’s big win. QB Jason Driskel hasn’t been asked to do much this season other than the manage the game and hand off the ball, but he does have 899 yards, four TD’s and three INT’s overall. 

Note that the Owls have now run for an average of 422.7 YPG over their last three outings. 

Additionally I’ll point out that Marshall has struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 9-11 ATS in its last 20 against the conference and 0-2 ATS in its last two as a road dog in the 7.5 to ten points range, while FAU is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU wins and 5-2 ATS in its last seven following a conference game.

The Thundering Herd looks ripe for the picking here after last week’s “dud.” Besides, Marshall already has an invite to a bowl. 

Florida Atlantic on the other hand won’t want to leave anything to chance as it seeks its sixth win of the year.

I like the Owls to continue their red hot play and to soundly avenge last year’s loss with a big effort in front of the home town crowd. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Ball State (7:00 EST).

The 2-6 Ball State Cardinals will need to win out to reach the six win plateau. Clearly that’s not going to happen, but the visitors will be playing with pride today after getting crushed over the last four games, most recently falling 58-17 to Toledo. 

EMU isn’t much better, as it’s also winless in conference play. It’s true that the Eagles’ last six losses have come by a TD or less, but it still doesn’t take away from the fact that this is a bad team. 

The Cardinals once again looked brutal on the defensive side of the ball last weekend, but the good news was that the offense put up its most points in four games, highlighted by 204 yards on the ground. 

EMU had a 14 point lead last week and still managed to fall in OT. The Eagles are devastated by that setback and I think will be “hung over” to open this game, leaving the back door open just enough for the the Cardinals to sneak in through down the stretch. 

I’ll point out that Ball State is still 9-7 ATS in its last 16 on the road, while EMU is just 6-9 ATS in its last 15 at home (and only 2-6 ATS in its last eight against teams with losing records.)

For all the reasons listed above, play on Ball State.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Central Michigan (8:00 EST).

The 4-4 Central Michigan Chippewas are at Western Michigan to take on the 5-3 Broncos and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

CMU has been off since October 21st when it annihilated Ball State 56-9, while WMU also last played on the 21st, holding on for a 20-17 road win over EMU in OT. 

Note that this is a revenge game for the Chips after they fell 49-10 at home to the Broncos last year.

So far the Chips average 391.1 yards of offense per contest, while allowing 387.6. In the victory over the Cardinals QB Shane Morris was 16 of 21 for 199 yards, four TD’s and no INT’s. RB Jon Ward had 97 yards and two major scores as well.

The Broncos have won four straight, but took a major blow in last week’s win when starting QB Jon Wassink left with a broken collarbone ten minutes into it. Reece Goddard was serviceable in his replacement. WMU had 422 yards of offense, but allowed 459. 

Without Wassnik, WMU’s offense now revolves around RB Jarvion Franklin, who has 642 yards and eight TD’s this season.

I’ll point out though that Central Michigan is 2-0 ATS in its last two as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while Western Michigan is 2-3 ATS in its last five as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range.

The road team is 5-0 ATS the last five in this series and clearly CMU will be desperate to string a couple more wins together to try and reach the six-win plateau. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Central Michigan.

Good luck…Larry

This is a 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner on Miami Ohio (7:30 EST).

The 3-5 Miami Redhawks are in Ohio to take on the 6-2 Bobcats and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

Miami Ohio is off a 24-14 home win over Buffalo, while Ohio comes in off a 48-3 crushing of Kent State. Note that when these team’s played last year, it was the Bobcats that pulled off the 17-7 win, making this a revenge-scenario for the Redhawks.

Miami Ohio averages 23.6 PPG and concedes 24.5. Last week the defense came up huge against Buffalo, holding it to just 271 yards on 14 first downs. The offense posted 350 yards, with RB Kenny Young running for 125 yards and two TD’s. QB Billy Bahi has played the last three games and has 470 yards and two TD’s. 

Ohio ranks 13th in scoring at 40.8 PPG, while ranked 62nd in the country on the defensive side in conceding 25.4 PPG. The pass defense is poor though, ranked 90th in the nation in conceding 239 YPG. 

I’ll point out that Miami Ohio is 5-3 ATS in its last eight off a win against a conference rival and 2-1 ATS in its last three coming out of its bye week, while Ohio is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU victories. 

Ohio has punched its ticket to the postseason, while Miami Ohio needs to immediatley start stringing some wins together if it has any shot at a bowl invitation. I think the Redhawks are clearly the “hungrier” team here today, as this one sets up as a bit of a “trap” for the home side. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Kansas City Chiefs (8:30 EST).

Both teams have been scuffling. The Broncos have lost two straight, most recently getting shutout 21-0 by the Chargers this past weekend, while the Chiefs have also fallen on recent hard times by dropping two straight, most recently a crushing 31-30 setback to Oakland on October 19th.

I think KC bounces back in a big way here though as it looks to take advantage of a Denver team which is dealing with several injuries to its offensive line and at the WR position. 

Denver WR Emmanual Sanders missed the game against LA because of a sprained ankle and he’s listed as questionable for this one as well (if he does happen to play, clearly he’s going to be less than 100% capacity.) 

Broncos’ QB Trevor Siemian was 25 of 35 for 207 yards and a pick in the loss. 

Denver’s defense remains its strength, allowing only 258.5 YPG. That unit though clearly faces a stiff test against this prolific offense and in this hostile environment.

Last week Chiefs’ QB Alex Smith was 25 of 36 for 342 yards and three TD’s. So far Smith has 15 TD’s and zero INT’s on the year. RB Kareem Hunt added 87 yards and now has 1,002 yards and six TD’s on the season. 

KC ranks third in YPG overall with 392.4, but it ranks 29th on the defensive end in conceding 396.3 YPG.

The Chiefs’ defense catches a big break this week though in facing the one-dimensional Broncos’ offense. 

KC opened the year 5-0, but it’s since dropped its last two. The game against the Raiders could have gone either way though, so they could easily be sitting at 6-1. Oakland was desperate last week and it managed to take care of business at home against a divisional opponent.

But with those two losses behind them, I’m expecting Smith and the Chiefs to return to form on the national stage and to ultimately pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover on Monday night.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* 34-CLUB PLAY is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (8:30 EST).

The Steelers come in on top form and catch a Lions team that’s going to be rusty coming out of its bye week. In my opinion, this line could easily be a lot larger.

Detroit has lost two straight, most recently to Carolina and New Orleans, while Pittsburgh has won two very tough games in a row against KC and Cincinnati.

Ben Roethlisberger threw five INT’s in a 30-9 loss to Jacksonville earlier in the month and since then has gone 2-0 with three TD’s and one INT. 

Big Ben has gotten plenty of help as well, as RB Le’Veon Bell has 313 yards combined over his last two games. 

The Steelers rush defense has been dominant as well, holding the Chiefs to 28 yards and the Bengals to 71: 

“The sky’s the limit,” Steelers’ linebacker Bud Dupree assessed after last week’s win. “Not even the sky’s the limit. We’re not going to put a ceiling on our head. We’re going to keep going up.”

Detroit ranks 26th in the NFL in total offense with 298.0 YPG and the run game averages just 4.6 YPC. QB Matt Stafford has 12 TD’s and six picks on the year. 

The numbers/trends also support Pittsburgh this weekend, as note that the Steelers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 on the road and 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 after rushing for more than 150 yards in their previous game, while the Lions are just 1-4 ATS in their last five at home and only 1-6 ATS in their last seven against clubs with winning records.

Detroit’s leading receiver Golden Tate has a shoulder injury and is listed as day to day. If he does happen to play, clearly he’s not going to be at 100% capacity. Stafford doesn’t have too many options left (Marvin Jones Jr. has 20 catches for 280 yards and three TD’s), and he’s turned the ball over six times in the last three games.

Pittsburgh continues to gain confidence though, especially by RB Bell, who looks poised for another big game tonight. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Steelers.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NFL Week 8 Las Vegas Insider is on the Buf Bills at 1:00 ET.

The 3-4 Oakland Raiders are in Buffalo to take on the 4-2 Bills on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, all signs point to a comfortable cover for the home side.

Oakland looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion after its thrilling 31-30 home win over Kansas City. 

Conversely, I think the “under the radar” Bills are poised for another big day after holding on for a 30-27 win over a dangerous Tampa Bay team at home last weekend. 

Note that this is a “revenge” game for the Bills as well after they fell 38-24 in Oakland last season.

So far Oakland has averaged just 22.1 PPG, while ranked 18th overall in allowing 22.3 PPG. QB Derek Carr has looked brilliant at times this season and downright awful in others. 

He was sharp against the Chiefs, going for 417 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s. On the year Carr has 1,341 passing yards, 11 TD’s and four picks. Amari Cooper had a big game against KC, hauling in 11 passes for 210 yards and two TD’s. 

Note though that previous to that Cooper had just 146 total yards over his first six games, so reading too much into one decent start is in my opinion, dangerous.

Buffalo enters ranked 19th in scoring with 19.8 PPG, but it makes up for it on the defensive end in conceding just 16.8, ranked fourth. LeSean McCoy had 91 yards and two TD’s last week. QB Tyrod Taylor has 1,178 yards, seven TD’s and just two INT’s on the season. 

Additionally I’ll point out that Oakland has struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 games played in the month of October and just 2-4 ATS in its last six against teams with winning records, while Buffalo has excelled in this position by going 10-8 ATS in its last 18 at home (including 2-0 this season) and 2-1 ATS in its last three played in the month of October. 

The Raiders looked good with their backs against the wall last week, but as I stated earlier, I’m not reading too much into one decent performance. The Bills have been sharp all year and have been at the best at home.

In my professional opinion, this line could/should easily be a lot larger. Play on Buffalo.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New Orleans Saints (1:00 EST).

I’ve played the Saints the last two weeks and I think New Orleans is going to keep the goods times rolling with another convincing victory at home this afternoon. 

New Orleans most recently posted a solid 26-17 road win over Green Bay last week, while the Bears held on for an improbable 17-3 home win over Carolina. 

Chicago’s defense saved the day last week, because QB Mitchell Trubisky had just 107 yards on four passes. Over three games Trubisky has shown promise with 348 yards, two TD’s and one pick. 

The Bears’ offense struggled overall though and failed to score a TD. Chicago forced three turnovers, but note that despite that it still owns the 31st ranked pass defense in the league. 

New Orleans conceded just 260 total yards to Brett Hundley and the Packers last week. Hundley is no Aaron Rodgers, but there’s no question that the Saints looks vastly improved on the defensive side of the ball this season. 

The Saints’ offense is of course led by QB Drew Brees, who wasn’t at his best in the victory last week, posting 338 yards, one TD and two INT’s. Overall though Brees is putting together another solid campaign with 1,652 passing yards and an 11:4 TD to INT ratio. One other player for New Orleans to keep your eyes on today is WR Ted Ginn Jr., who had 141 receiving yards on seven catches last weekend. 

I’ll point out as well that Chicago has struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 on the road and only 3-11 ATS in its last 14 after allowing less than 15 points in its previous outing, while New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last five following a SU victory and 7-1 ATS in its last eight against teams with losing records. 

New Orleans comes into this one on top form. The Bears’ biggest strength is their defense and the biggest weakness of that unit is the pass defense. That’s bad news facing a confident Drew Brees at home.

I’m laying the points.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Jets (1:00 EST).

Atlanta is 3-3 SU and comes off a horrible effort in New England last weekend. The Falcons have now lost three straight and look like a team with more questions than answers right now.

New York has looked much better than almost everyone expected, but it will be looking to get back on track after consecutive setbacks to New England and Miami. 

In last weekend’s loss to New England, Atlanta suffered another injury to LB Duke Riley, who will be out for at least four weeks. 

After three straight wins, Matt Ryan and company continue to struggle with consistency.

And that doesn’t bode well in facing this “under the radar” Jets’ defense in my opinion. 

Even at 3-4, New York is still in contention in the wide open AFC East. QB Josh McCown has been better than expected, last week going 17 of 27 for 209 yards, three TD’s and one pick, while also rushing a TD in himself. 

I’ll point out as well that ATL is just 4-11 ATS in its last 15 following a SU loss, while New York is 4-0 ATS in its last four in front of the home town crowd.

McCown is on fire this year and won’t be shy to open up the playbook again today against this porous Falcons’ secondary. Note that McCown has completed almost 70 percent of his passes and already has ten TD’s. 

Ryan on the other hand has been a complete disaster, throwing six picks and just seven INT’s. 

While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset obviously, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the Jets to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire.

Good luck…Larry

The third 9* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1:00 EST).

The 4-3 Carolina Panthers look to get back on track after a humbling 17-3 loss to Chicago last week, while the Bucs will be looking to take out their frustrations on someone after a tough 30-27 road loss in Buffalo.

If recent history is any precedence though, then Tampa Bay has to be liking its chances today as it took both meetings in the series last year. 

Panthers’ QB Cam Newton was 21 of 34 for 211 yards, no TD’s and two INT’s last week. Newton is starting to show signs of fatigure already this year, having thrown five INT’s over his last two games (owns a poor 9/10 TD/INT ratio.) RB Jon Stewart managed just 48 yards on 14 carries. 

Note that in three games already this season the Panthers have scored 13 or fewer points. 

The defense remains a strength of the team and it looked good against the inept Bears last week, but clearly the unit faces a much stiffer test against the dynamic Jameis Winston and company.

Winston was 32 of 44 for 384 yards, three TD’s and one INT in last week’s loss. So far he has 1,643 passing yards and 10/4 TD/INT ratio. WR Mike Evans continued his strong campaign with seven catches for 88 yards. 

Tampa’s defense struggled last Sunday, but it catches a break this weekend in facing a suddenly struggling Newton.

Also note that Carolina is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 against the division and just 1-3 ATS in its last four against teams with losing records, while Tampa Bay is 2-1 ATS in its last three against clubs with winning records and 2-1 ATS in its last three after two or more consecutive SU losses. 

Winston and his offense comes in on top form and he rides the wave of emotion in front of the home town crowd. Newton is struggling and I think that gets carried over here. Play on Tampa Bay.

Good luck…Larry

The third 9* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on USC (10:45 EST).

The 6-2 USC Trojans are at Arizona State to take on the 4-3 Sun Devils and in my opinion, this one favors the visiting side.

USC won’t be playing in the College Football Playoff after last week’s 49-14 loss at Note Dame, but the team will be eager to bounce back and take out its frustrations tonight. 

Trojans’ QB Sam Darnold was 20 of 28 for 229 yards and two TD’s. Darnold has been decent, not great this season by throwing for 2,292 yards, 17 TD’s and ten INT’s. Note that one of his best games of his career came against Arizona State last year, finishing with 352 yards and three TD’s in the 41-20 win last year. 

The Sun Devils have won two straight, most recently a 30-10 victory at Utah last Saturday. Arizona State’s defense looked pretty good in the win, posting four INT’s. Note though that previous to that the Sun Devils had forced just five turnovers on the season.

I’ll point out as well that USC is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 following a SU loss, while Arizona State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after scoring 40 or more points in an OT victory in its previous outing.

I like Darnold to have another big game against this suspect Sun Devils’ secondary. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Washington State (9:30 EST).

The 7-1 Washington State Cougars are in Arizona to take on the 5-2 Wildcats and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Note that when these teams met last year, WSU smashed Arizona 69-7. 

WSU bounced back from its first loss of the year to post an impressive 28-0 win over Colorado last week. QB Luke Falk was 17 of 34 for 197 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s. 

But as good as Falk looked, it was the Cougars’ defense which really impressed, a unit which is now conceding just 274 yards on average per game.

Arizona looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion after its 45-44 double OT win over Cal on the road in its latest outing. RB Zach Green had 130 yards on 20 carries, while QB Khalil Tate had 137 rushing yards and a score, along with 166 passing yards, two TD’s and a pick through the air. 

Arizona looked horrible defensively though, conceding 473 yards, allowing Cal 31 first downs and to convert on 13 of 19 third down opportunities. 

I’ll point out as well that Washington State is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 following an ATS victory and 7-3 ATS in its last ten road games against a team with a winning home record, while Arizona is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 conference contests.

The Wildcats’ offense is in for a stiff test today after last week’s big performance. All signs point a comfortable cover for the Cougars in my opinion.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Texas Tech (8:00 EST).

The 4-3-1 Texas Tech Red Raiders are 5-2 ATS, while the No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners are 6-1 SU and 3-4 ATS. 

The Sooners enter off a 42-35 road win over K-State, while Texas Tech comes in off two straight losses, most recently a 31-13 setback to Iowa State this past weekend (note that Oklahoma also lost to Iowa State 38-31 on Oct. 7th.)

Texas Tech QB Nic Shimonek was 31 of 41 for 207 yards, no TD’s and a pick against Iowa State last week. It was a rare “off” game for Shimonek though, who already has 2,341 passing yards, 18 TD’s and only five INT’s this season. 

Oklahoma gave up 412 yards of offense last week. RB Rodney Anderson had 147 rushing yards and a score, while QB Baker Mayfield had 410 yards, two TD’s and an INT. 

From a trend based stand point, this one highly favors the visitors, as note that the Red Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last seven after two or more consecutive SU losses and 11-7 ATS in its last 18 when playing the role of underdog, while Oklahoma is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range.

I think that Shimonek will bounce back here and I look for him to match pace with Mayfield. This is a few too many points, play on Texas Tech.

Good luck…Larry

This is a 9* Oddsmaker’s Error on Tennessee (7:30 EST).

The 3-4 Tennessee Volunteers need to string some wins together if they have any shot at making a bowl. 

The 5-2 Kentucky Wildcats are on the cusp of bowl inclusion, but I think they are going to struggle against this determined Vols side. 

Tennessee enters off a humbling 45-7 loss to Alabama on the road and it’s now 0-4 in conference play. 

Kentucky comes in off a 45-7 loss at Mississippi State, dropping it to 2-2 in league play. 

If recent history is any precedence though, then Tennessee has to be liking its chances for a conference victory today, because when these teams met last year it was the Vols that pulled away for the 49-36 victory. 

So far Tennessee averages just 19.6 PPG, while conceding 26.9 PPG (ranked fifth against the pass in allowing only 158.1 YPG through the air.)

The Vols have been atrocious against the run the last few weeks, but they catch a break here because the Wildcats are a pass first offense. And that falls right into the wheel house of their defensive strength. 

Kentucky averages 24.6 PPG and allows 24.7. With a home game against a horrible Mississippi team on the horizon, the Wildcats stil have chances to punch their ticket. 

Both team’s offenses struggled last week, but note that the Vols have performed extremely well in this spot for bettors, going 3-1 ATS in their last four as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range, while Kentucky is just 7-11 ATS in its last 18 after playing a conference game and only 7-13 ATS in its last 20 against the conference. 

Tennessee coach Butch Jones’ job is on the line here and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset obviously, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the hungry Volunteers to keep this one close enough down the stretch to comfortably sneak in through the back door once it’s all said and done.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on Vanderbilt (4:00 EST).

The 3-4 Vanderbilt Commodores are just 2-5 ATS, while the 5-2 Gamecocks are 4-2-1 ATS thus far. 

Vanderbilt though is 0-4 in SEC action and I think it’s going to be the much “nungrier” team overall today. Note that Vandy plays with revenge here as well after it fell 13-10 to South Carolina last season. 

Both teams come in off their repsective bye weeks.

Commodores’ QB Kyle Shurmur was 13 of 27 for 174 yards with two TD’s and a pick in his team’s most recent setback to Ole Miss. RB Ralph Webb was a bright spot in that one with 163 yards on 23 attempts along with two major scores of his own.

Overall Shurmur has been strong this year with 1,331 passing yards, 14 TD’s and just two INT’s to this point. 

The Gamecocks’ defense is their strong point, allowing only 19.3 PPG. That defense faces a stiff test today in Shurmur though. 

South Carolina QB Jake Bentley was 15 of 24 for 129 yards in the win over Tennessee, while AJ Turner had 86 rushing yards on 14 carries. 

I’ll point out though that Vanderbilt has performed extremly well in this spot for bettors, going 2-1 ATS in its last three as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range, while South Carolina has struggled in this position by going just 1-3 ATS in its last four against a school with a losing record.

I think Vanderbilt’s offense puts the home side to the test this afternoon. Grab as many points as you can, play on Vanderbilt.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK is on North Carolina (12:00 EST).

The 6-0 Miami Hurricanes are in UNC to take on the 1-7 Tar Heels and while I’m not calling for an outright upset, I do think that the Hurricanes will come in a tiny bit complacent, leaving the back door open just wide enough for the humbled Tar Heels to sneak in through down the stretch.

Miami already has four conference wins. The Hurricanes have so far been a bit “lucky” perhaps though, as they have just one fumble and three INT’s total on the year. Miami also has 12 takeaways of its own. 

The Hurricanes’ offense has suffered a big loss though with an injury to top RB Mark Walton last week (had a 7.6 yards per carry average.)

UNC’s record is terrible, but the competition it’s played against to this point has been considerable, with all seven losses coming against big-time schools. 

So far the Heels are allowing an average of 34.6 PPG, while the offense has also struggled.

But good news for UNC fans sees the return of starting QB Chazz Surratt, who has been out with injury. Backup Brandon Harris had five INT’s last weekend. 

I’ll point out as well that Miami is interestingly 0-4 ATS in its last four after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in its previous game, while UNC is 5-1 ATS in its last six in this series.

With Surratt coming back, the Tar Heels get a big mental boost this weekend. 

The Hurricanes on the other hand have a game at home against the 6-1 Hokies next Saturday, making this not only a potential “letdown” spot, but also a “look ahead” spot for the visitors as well.

It’s a trap of epic proportions for Miami on Saturday afternoon. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* SItuational Stunner is on Florida State (8:00 EST).

The 2-4 Florida State Seminoles are 0-4-2 ATS. The 4-4 Boston College Eagles are 5-3 ATS. 

FSU needs to immediatley start stringing some wins together if it has any shot at making a 36th straight bowl appearance and in my opinion, this is the perfect opponent to get untracked against.

The Seminoles come in off a 31-28 loss at home to Louisville on Saturday. QB James Blackman had 248 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s. 

And if recent history is any precedence, then FSU head coach Jumbo Fisher has to be liking his chances today as his team has won three in a row at Boston College and seven straight in the series overall. 

BC looks primed for a letdown in my opinion as well. After giving up 83 points in consecutive losses to Notre Dame and Clemson, the Eagles have won three of four, most recently routing Virginia 41-10 on Saturday.

Boston College QB Anthony Brown had 275 yards and three TD’s. Previous to that though Brown had completed just 51.2 percent of his passes with seven TD’s.

Losing breeds desperation and winning leads to complacency. 

BC has been held to seven or fewer points in four of its last seven setbacks to Florida State. The Seminoles’ defense is a strength still and I think it’s going to be a difference maker today as well. 

Additionally I’ll point out that Florida State is 4-2 ATS in its last six off a loss against a conference rival, while Boston College is 0-7 ATS in its last seven against teams with losing records.

I think Blackman can match Brown and as stated above, I like FSU to step up this week on the defensive side in this favorable matchup. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Baltimore Ravens (8:25 EST).

The 4-2 Miami Dolphins are coming off an epic 31-28 win at the Atlanta Falcons. In that win they lost starting QB Jay Cutler to injury and were led to victory by backup Matt Moore. 

The Ravens meanwhile are just 3-4 and they’ll be eager to get back into the winners circle after falling 24-16 at Minnesota this past weekend. 

As mentioned off the top, Moore came in to replace Cutler last week and he’d go for 188 yards, two TD’s and a pick. RB Jay Ajayi though had just 51 yards on 23 attempts. 

The Fish are ranked 32nd in total offense this year with just 261.8 yards per game accumulated on average. Miami has made up for it on the defensive end though, giving up 18.7 PPG thus far.

Baltimore QB Joe Flacco was 27 of 39 for 186 yards with one TD and no picks last weekend. The Ravens are now dealing with injuries to the WR position and the unit is putting up just 18.3 PPG this year. The defense is poor against the run, but great against the pass (allowing 189.3 YPG in the air thus far.)

I’ll point out though that Miami is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 off a divisional game and just 12-14 ATS in its last 26 as an underdog, while Baltimore is 4-2 ATS in its last six as a home favorite of three points or less.

Moore looked “ok” last weekend, but this is a difficult place to play and the short week won’t help matters. There’s big time pressure on Moore to perform and I think he’s going to stumble here. The correct call is on Flacco and the hungry home side. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH is on Ball State (7:00 EST).

Am I suggesting to you to “sprinkle” a little on the money line? Of course not. I simply feel this is a few too many points to be giving up in this situation.

The 6-1 Toledo Rockets are at Ball State to take on the 2-5 Cardinals. Toledo looks primed for a bit of a letdown here though in my opinion after three straight wins. 

Conversely, it’s going to be all hands on deck for the Cardinals as they try in vain to reach the six win plateau with just a handful of games remaining and on the heels of four straight losses (after starting the year 2-1.)

Toledo QB Logan Woodside had 304 yards and five TD’s in his team’s 48-21 win over Akron. Prevoius to that though he’d posted just one major score over two combined games. RB Terry Swanson also looked good with 123 yards on 20 carries.

The Cardinals will be desperate to get off the schneid, as they haven’t scored a TD since late September. Ball State had to transition to senior QB Jack Milas after stater Riley Neal went down with injury in a loss to WKU earlier in the season:

“This is a fragile football team right now,” Ball State head coach Mike Neu admitted after the loss. “As much as I hate to admit it, we are struggling to overcome some of the injuries. It’s not for lack of want to, guys are working hard, but we’re doing some things that are uncharacteristic for our football team.”

With back-to-back road games though, it’s not too hard to imagine the Rockets getting caught “looking ahead/past” their lowly opponent today.

Additionally I’ll point out that Toledo has in fact struggled in this spot for bettors, interestingly going 0-2 ATS in its last two “Thursday night” contests. Ball State has been a bad team for a long time and it’s hard to find any positive ATS stats to back up this play, however take note that it’s 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring ten points or less in its previous contest.

I think the home side keeps this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back down the stretch. Play on Ball State.

Good luck…Larry