My 10 SUPER BOWL 51 TOP SIDE PLAY is on the Atlanta Falcons (6:30 EST).

The Super Bowl-champion Atlanta Falcons.

Maybe not, but even if they don’t beat the Patriots in the 51st running of America’s favorite game, they will cover and reward bettors who risk some of their hard-earned cash.

It won’t be easy. Taking down the Patriots in a big game never is. But the Falcons are a freight train right  now, they have the league’s MVP, they have one of the top three receivers in the world, they have a defense that is getting stops and turnovers, and it is all coming together at the right time.

Atlanta will win it by taking a page out of the New York Giants’ SB playbook and pressuring Tom Brady, especially up the middle. Houston also had (a little) success coming straight at Brady, who is at his weakest when flushed from the pocket. And the Falcons’ offense has progressed far enough to understand and adjust to New England’s constantly changing defensive schemes.

Oddsmakers opened with the Falcons getting three from the 4-time Super Bowl champs, who have had to lay points in their last 8 games after showing that they are indeed for real. Grab the 3, put it in your back pocket. 

The Falcons are ready to take flight. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* 33-Club Play is on the New England Patriots (6:40 EST).

The 13-5 Pittsburgh Steelers are at New England to take on the 15-2 Patriots and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

Last week the Steelers barely held on for an 18-16 road win in Kansas City. The Patriots were in neutral in their victory over the Texans last week before hitting the gas in the second half to pull away for the 34-16 win. 

Ben Roethlisberger wasn’t playing, but the Patriots won 27-16 at Heinz Field in Week seven. 

The Steelers finished the regular season by posting 24.9 PPG, ranked 11th overall. The defense was ranked tenth, conceding an average of 20.4 PPG. 

The Patriots though were step above in both departments, finishing third in the league in scoring with an average of 27.6 PPG, while finishing No. 1 on the defensive end in conceding 15.6 PPG. Last week the unit held the Texans to just 285 yards and had three INT’s. 

I’ll point out that Pittsburgh is just 4-11 ATS in its last 15 against New England, while the Pats are 6-0 ATS in their last six following a SU win and 4-0 ATS against teams with winning records.

The Pats strength on defense was stopping the run, which clearly doesn’t bode well for Steelers’ RB Le’Veon Bell. Note that Pittsburgh allowed an average of just 88.6 yards per game on the ground. So far Roethlisberger has two TD’s and three INT’s in the playoffs.

It’s a lot to ask a team to win on the road in the postseason, so to say it’s difficult to win SU twice away from friendly confines as the underdog would be a bit of an understatement I think. 

The Steelers’ secondary is average at best, so New England QB Tom Brady should be able to move the ball in this one. Also note that the Pats were able to rush for 140 yards in their Week 7 win over the Steelers.

Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Championship Sunday Las Vegas Insider is on the GB Packers at 3:05 ET.

Both Championship Sunday games have terrific QB matchups, with this Green Bay/Atlanta game featuring the NFL's hottest QB in Aaron Rodgers up against Matt Ryan, who many believe will win this year's MVP award (however, Rodgers could have something to say about that!). Rodgers owns a Super Bowl ring and the Packers are participating in the playoffs for the EIGHTH consecutive season. As for the Falcons, they did capture the NFC's No. 2 seed with an 11-5 record in 2016, but this is the team's first postseason appearance since 2012. 

Rodgers proved to be a man of his word when he told reporters that the Green Bay Packers were capable of running the table to secure a playoff bid. Six consecutive wins later and the Packers won the NFC North at 10-6. They've then beaten the Giants 38-13 at Lambeau in the wild card round before last Sunday's thrilling 34-31 last-second win in Dallas over the Cowboys, who had earned the NFC's No. 1 seed at 13-3. Rodgers finished the regular season with an NFL-high 40 TD passes and just seven INTs (QB rating of 104.2), which all followed him struggling down the stretch last season and in the early going of 2016. Despite losing Jody Nelson (led the NFL with 14 TDs among his 97 receptions) to a rib injury against teh Giants, Rodgers threw for 362 yards and four TDs without an INT in 40 attempts. Without Nelson against Dallas, Rodgers threw for 356 yards with two TDs, although he did throw his first INT since a Nov 13th game at Tennessee. Rodgers has 21 TDs and just one INT in the team's 8-0 run plus a Green Bay defense which allowed 24.2 PPG on the season (to rank 21st), has held opponents to 19.5 PPG during its winning run.

As good as Rodgers has been, Matt Ryan has delivered a "career season" for the Falcons. The Falcons scored 71 more points than any other team in the NFL during the regular season, leading all teams by averaging 33.8 PPG. He just missed throwing for 5,000 yards (4,944), while passing for 38 TDs and just seven INTs. His 117.1 QB rating not only led the NFL, but was the fifth-best in NFL history. In fact, he topped 100 in passer rating in 12 of 16 regular-season games, then did it again against Seattle (125.7) in the divisional round when threw for 338 yards with three TDs and zero INTs against Seattle, which owned the best defense of any NFC playoff team. In Julio Jones (83 catches for 1,409 yards), Ryan has one of the three-best WRs in the NFL plus the RB duo of Freeman and Coleman, have turned into a real force. Each can run, catch and gain yards after the catch. Freeman gained 1,541 yards from scrimmage (13 TDs) and Coleman 941 yards with 11 TDs during the regular season. However, defense has been an issue for the Falcons all season, allowing 25.4 PPG (27th) on 371.2 YPG (25th).

Then again, this is not grandfather's NFL or your father's, for that matter. Atlanta ranked 27th in the NFL in points allowed and Green Bay 21st but ONE of them is headed to Super Bowl 51. The knock on Ryan was his dismal 1-4 playoff record coming into this postseason and while he was great vs Seattle, did that real "get the monkey off his back?" The Falcons defense didn't get much of a test against Seattle, a team which averaged only 14.8 PPG on the road during the regular season and then 'laid an egg' in Atlanta. Seattle scored on its opening drive, then didn't get into the end zone again until 3:21 left in the game, when the team was down 36-13! Is the Atlanta defense really ready for Rodgers?

When these teams met in Atlanta back in Week 8, the Packers took the lead with just under four minutes to go but Ryan drove the Falcons 75 yards (in 11 plays) for the tying TD, with the extra-point being the game-winner (33-32). Can't see giving Rodgers and Green Bay any points in this one. I made "The Pack" a top-rated 10* last weekend and will do so again, here.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Div Round Las Vegas Insider is on the GB Packers at 4:40 ET.

Full, detailed analysis by 9:00 ET Wednesday evening.

My 10* AFC SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the New England Patriots (8:15 EST).

The 9-7 Houston Texans are in New England to take on the 14-2 Patriots and for a number of different reasons I think this one favors the favorites.

Houston managed to get by Oakland 27-14 last week, while the Pats come in rested after enjoying a first round bye. In Week 2 the Patriots annihilated the Texans 27-0. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting an even bigger lop-sided beatdown tonight.

In that game Jacoby Brissett was at QB for New England, while Brock Osweiler had 196 yards, zero TD’s and one INT for Houston.

Looking good against a Raiders team that was down to its third string rookie QB is one thing, it’s obviously quite another in facing Tom Brady and company at Foxborough in January. Note that the Texans average just 17.4 PPG, ranked 29th overall. 

Houston’s defense was its strong point, finishing by allowing 20.5 PPG, ranked 11th.

That defense though is about to be tested by New England’s third ranked offense which posted 27.6 PPG. In the win over Houston in Week 3, LeGarrette Blount had 105 yards and two TD’s.

But as good as the offense is for New England, the Pats’ defense was even better, conceding just 15.6 PPG, ranked first overall. And note, that defense was especially strong against the run, which clearly doesn’t bode well for the Texans’ Lamar Miller.

I’ll point out that Houston is just 2-5 ATS on the road this year, while New England is 4-2 ATS in its last six when playing with two weeks off. 

I simply can’t see Osweiler mustering any sort of offensive attack today as he and the Texans are going to be out of their element in chilly Foxborough. The bottom line is, I’m expecting a huge performance from Brady as he looks to send a message to the rest of the league.

Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Seattle Seahawks (4:35 EST).

The 10-5-1 Seattle Seahawks are in Atlanta to take on the 11-5 Falcons in the divisional round of the NFL Playoffs and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

I played on Seattle last week in its destruction of the Lions and suffice it to say, I expect the playoff tested Seahawks to carry that momentum over here and give the home side everything it can handle. 

Seattle’s defense looked great in the 26-6 win over Detroit. It’s going to have to be sharp once again in facing Matt Ryan and the high-flying Falcons. 

Remember though, when these two played in Week 6, it was the Hawks that scored the 28-26 outright victory. Seattle had three rushing TD’s in the win, while Ryan threw for three for ATL. 

In the win over Detroit the Seahawks’ defense gave up just two field goals. QB Russell Wilson was 23 of 30 for 224 yards and two TD’s. RB Thomas Rawls had 161 yards on 27 carries and I’m expecting him to have a big day against the Falcons’ suspect line. 

Note that Seattle ranks 21st in the NFL on the offensive end in averaging 22.1 PPG. The Seahawks though concede just 18.2, ranked third overall. 

That defense will once again be put to the test as the Falcons average 33.8 PPG, ranked first in the league. As mentioned above though, the defense has been a disaster all season, ranked 28th against the pass and 27th overall in conceding 25.4 PPG. 

I’ll point out that Seattle is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season as an underdog, while ATL is just 8-18 ATS in its last 26 when playing the role of favroite (including just 1-3 ATS in its last four). 

I think that Wilson and company have a big opportunity to put some points on the board and hang with Ryan down the stretch. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR is on Alabama (8:00 EST).

In all the hoopla over Alabama winning the national championship a year ago, it was not lost on the gambling community that the Crimson Tide did not cover the spread. The son of Nick Saban went in to the title game as 6-point favorites, but their 45-40 victory did nothing but cause anguish among their backers at the betting window.

Twelve month later, and here we are again. Alabama vs. Clemson II, and the betting line is just about the same. Just about every betting outlet in the world has the Tide favored by 6, 6.5 or 7 points.

Will the outcome be any different this time around?

Yes and no.

Alabama will win again, but this time will cover the spread.

Clemson appears to be the chic pick in the media. The Tigers earned lots of street cred after their 31-0 drawing and quartering of Ohio State in the semifinals. Clemson intercepted two passes in that game, which immediately caused everyone to start wondering what the Tigers could do to Alabama freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts.

Hurts, who came out of nowhere and was the Southern Conference Offensive Player of the Year when he threw 34 touchdown passes, was not exactly Peyton Manning 2.0 in the Tide’s 24-7 semifinal victory over Washington – 7 of 14, no TDs, only 57 yards passing.

But not much bothers Hurts ("I rarely get frustrated," he said after the Washington game. "I just take it as it comes and play ball."), so even the absence of offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin (who will miss the game as he gets a head start on his new job as head coach at Florida Atlantic) shouldn’t be much of an impediment.

Alabama scored plenty of points this season (the Tide averaged nearly 40 a game in going 14-0 SU), but they figure to win their 5th national title in eight seasons by riding their lightning-fast defense past Clemson.

Alabama’s athletic defense led the nation in defensive touchdowns, it led the nation in rushing defense and it led the nation in total defense. Consider this: In the best football conference in the country, the Tide scored more points than any other team and gave up fewer points than any other team – both by wide margins.

If any team can beat No. 1 Alabama, it’s No. 2 Clemson. But the Crimson Tide are not just any team. And they figure to both win this game, and cover the spread.

Roll Tide.

Again.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the New York Giants (4:40 EST).

The 11-5 New York GIants are in Green Bay to take on the 10-6 Packers and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I’m going to recommend grabbing the points as I expect the visitors to take this one down to the wire. 

New York won three of its last four to finish with an 11-5 record, while Green Bay won its final six games to take the NFC North. The Packers beat the Giants 23-16 at home in Week five. Aaron Rodgers had 259 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s, while Eli Manning had 199 passhing yards, one TD and no INT’s. 

New York gets the job done on the defensive end and I think its underrated unit will prove to be the difference today. Last year the Giants had the 30th ranked defense, but this season the unit allows 17.8 PPG, ranked second overall.

Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers finished the season with a 40:7 TD to INT ratio. The run game struggled with injuries all year, so they’ll clearly be putting all their eggs in one basket this weekend, committed to the passing game. Green Bay finished ranked 31st against the pass this season and would go on to allow 24.2 PPG, ranked 21st overall. 

I’ll point out that New York is 5-1 ATS in its last six off a win against a division rival, while Green Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last six after two or more consecutive SU victories.

Manning will have a big day against this weak Packers’ secondary and while he’s had a great run to this point, I have a hard time seeing Rodgers having such a productive day against the Giants’ top ranked unit. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (1:05 EST).

The 10-6 Miami Dolphins are in Pittsburgh to take on the 11-5 Steelers and for a number of different reasonss, I think this one favors the home side. Miami would win three of its last four to secure a spot, while Pittsburgh won its final seven games to take the AFC North. In Week six, Miami beat Pittsburgh 30-15. Suffice it to say, it’s now payback time for the Steelers!

Miami lost 35-14 to the Pats last week. Backup QB Matt Moore was decent, going 24 of 34 for 205 yards, one TD and two INT’s. RB Jay Ajayi will clearly be leaned upon heavily here, he’d finish with 1,272 rushing yards and eight TD’s. 

The Fish would finish the regular season averaging 22.7 PPG, ranked 17th overall. The defense was weak, conceding 23.8 PPG, ranked 18th and just got burned by three passing TD’s to the Pats last week.

Steelers’ QB Ben Roethlisberger finished with 3,819 yards and a 29:13 TD to INT ratio. Pittsburgh would finish the year averaging 24.9 PPG, good for 11th overall. The defense was also decent, conceding 20.4, ranked tenth in the league.

I’ll point out that Miami is interestingly just 1-4 ATS in its last five after allowing 30 points or more in its previous game and just 6-21 ATS in its last 27 after allowing more than 250 passing yards in its previous outing, while Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home playoff contests.

Pittsburgh has the edge on both sides of the ball in this one. Moore has been decent, but the pressure gets dialed up considerably this week. I think the Dolphins finally have a letdown here and the home side pulls away for the comfortable ATS cover as the game comes down the stretch. Play on the Steelers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Wildcard GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Seattle Seahawks (8:15 EST).

The 9-7 Detroit Lions are in Seattle to take on the 10-5-1 Seahawks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

Detroit backed its way into the postseason, losing its final three of the year to finish in second place in the NFC North. Seattle was 3-3 over its final three games.

When these teams met in Week 4 last year, Seattle came out on top 13-10. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a much bigger rout today. 

Detroit could have won the division and secured a first round bye with a win over the Packers in Week 17, but QB Matt Stafford struggled again. Stafford had an overall good year, finishing with 4,327 passing yards and a 24:10 TD to INT ratio, but the run game struggled. In all the Lions would finish ranked 20th in the NFL with an average of 21.6 PPG. Defensively the team is average as well, conceding 22.4 PPG, ranked 13th.

Seattle is back in the playoffs for a fifth straigh tseason. QB Russell Wilson had 4,219 yards and a 20:11 TD to INT ratio. WR Doug Baldwin made 94 catches for 1,128 receiving yards. In the end the Hawks averaged 22.1 PPG, ranked 18th overall, while conceding just 18.2, ranked third.

I’ll point out that Detroit is just 3-5 ATS on the road this year and just 2-4 ATS in its last six off a loss against a division rival, while Seattle is 5-3 ATS its last eight at home and 3-1 ATS in its last four against teams with winning records. 

It’s going to be cold in Seattle on Saturday night and there’s no question that the conditions favor the home side. I think the Hawks’ defense will be the difference maker today and expect Stafford and company to once again have a hard time finding any consistency. Play on Seattle.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* January Bowl LEGEND is on Oklahoma (8:30 EST).

Two losses in their first three games basically ended the Sooners’ chances at a return berth in the playoffs, but to their credit they never stopped playing hard, and their reward was nine straight victories, the school’s 10th Big 12 Conference championship and a berth in the Sugar Bowl. And Oklahoma comes roaring into the final game of the season, with a powerful offense that scored 34 or more points in every conference game. There is no reason to believe that the Sooners, who ended the season ranked 7th nationally, will pull up lame against Auburn. Oddsmakers made the Sooners 3.5-point favorites, and bettors feasted on that number, driving it up a full two points to the 5.5 where it now sits. The Sooners like to establish the run behind battering backs Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon, opening things up for more-than-capable QB Baker Mayfield. The defense has had some issues, but the O should once again be more than strong enough to compensate for whatever Auburn is able to put up on the scoreboard. The Tigers – who also started 1-2 and had trouble moving the ball against quality opponents – might not be able to hang in this one.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* SIDE OF THE MONTH is on Wisconsin (1:00 EST).

What a season it could have been for the Badgers, who will take a 10-3 record into the Cotton Bowl on Jan. 2 but could have easily gone undefeated. There were 7-point losses to Michigan and Penn State, and a 3-point overtime loss to Ohio State. Coulda, woulda, shoulda. Still, a date vs. Western Michigan in Arlington, Texas is not all that bad. The Badgers are making post-season play a regular thing, and they hope to make it three bowl wins in succession. Defense is Wisconsin’s calling card as the Badgers gave up only 15 points per game this season. Good thing, too, because the offense has had its share of problems behind redshirt freshman QB Alex Hornibrook (8 TD passes, 7 interceptions). Wisconsin gets it done with a solid offensive line blocking for workhorse back Corey Clement (1,304 yards and 14 TDs). Western Michigan was 13-0 during the regular season and had early victories over Big Ten entries Northwestern and Illinois, but is punching up in class. Bettors know this, and an opening line of 6.5 was quickly bet up to 7.5. If the Badgers pay attention they should be able to fly back to Madison with another bowl win.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Green Bay Packers (8:30 EST).

The 9-6 Green Bay Packers are in Detroit to take on the 9-6 Lions and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

This game will determine the winner of the NFC North. 

Green Bay enters on a five-game win streak, while Detroit comes in on the other end of the spectrum having dropped two in a row.

The Packers are riding the great play of QB Aaron Rodgers, who has thrown for 4,128 yards and 36 TD’s this year. Last week he had 347 yards and four TD’s, as well as scrambling for a fifth in the win over the Vikes.

Last week Matt Stafford was just 26 of 46 for 260 yards and an INT in his team’s 42-21 setback to the Cowboys. I think Stafford is regressing and believe he’ll be in for a long day against this amped up Packers’ secondary.

And note that Green Bay is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in Detroit, while the Lions are interestingly just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 against the NFC North.

Stafford’s play has been suffering because of a stagnant run game and I don’t see anything changing this week. Packers’ QB Rodgers on the other hand is on absolute fire right now. Lay the points with confidence.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Redskins (4:25 EST0.

The 10-5 New York Giants are in Washington to take on the 8-6-1 Redskins and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

The Giants are coming off a 24-19 road loss to Philadelphia, but would still go on to clinch their first playoff berth in five years after Tampa Bay fell to New Orleans. A win or loss this week has absolutely no effect whatsoever for the Giants as far as positioning, so the team is expected to rest most of the starters, including QB Eli Manning. Note even with Manning in the lineup, the Giants averaged just 19.4 PPG this year.

Washington though comes in off a 41-21 road win over Chicago to keep its playoff hopes alive. QB Kirk Cousins had 270 yards, one TD and zero INT’s. A few things need to happen for Washington to make the postseason, but the only thing the Redskins can control is laying everything on the line this weekend to try and secure the victory. Note that the Skins come into this one scoring an average of 25.7 points, ranked ninth overall.

This is a no-brainer for me, no need to overthink. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Eagles (1:00 EST).

The 13-2 Dallas Cowboys are in Philadelphia to take on the 6-9 Eagles and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

Dallas didn’t have a lot to play for on Monday night after already clinching the division title and home field throughout the playoffs, but the Cowboys would come out and hammer the Lions 42-21. 

The Eagles won’t be going down without a fight and come in with momentum after beating the Giants 24-19 at home last week. 

Note that Philadelphia plays with revenge today after falling 29-23 in Dallas earlier in the year.

Dallas been fantastic and has a legitimate shot at a Super Bowl run this year, but it truly has nothing to play for this week. It’s been reported that Tony Romo could see a lot of time in this one.

It’s time for Carson Wentz to cement his spot as next years starter for Philadelphia and put on a show for the home town crowd with a big performance today. So far Wentz has 3,537 yards, 14 TD’s and 14 INT’s. 

Last week the Eagles looked great on the defensive side of the field, holding New York to four field goals and intercepting Eli Manning three times.

I’ll also point out that Dallas is just 2-3 ATS this year against the division, while Philadelphia is 5-2 ATS in front of the home town crowd.

I think this one sets up perfectly for the much more motivated home side. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NFL Week 17 Las Vegas Insider is on the Min Vikings at 1:00 ET.

After a 4-0 SU & ATS preseason, the Vikings opened the 2016 season 5-0 SU & ATS, However, after returning from a Week 6 bye, the Vikings' season has 'crashed and burned,' as they will now just play to end the year at .500 after going 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS over their last 10 games. Chicago's season started poorly and since a Week 9 bye, the Bears are just 1-6 SU and limp into their season finale at 3-12. Only the 1-14 Browns and 2-13 Niners are worse.

The Bears are down to their third-string QB Matt Barkley, after injuries to Jay Cutler and backup Brian Hoyer. He's hardly ready for prime time, as he's been intercepted EIGHT times in he last two games. Execution has been an issue for Chicago all season, as the Bears have an NFL-low 10 takeaways and are a minus-16 in turnover-differential. "Minus-16 is a big reason we're sitting here at 3-12," head coach John Fox said. "It's not a good formula when you're minus-16." It's part of the reason that while the Chcago offense ranks 13th in total yards at 358.7 YPG, but the Bears are scoring only 17.9 PPG (28th). The Bears are hoping to avoid the franchise's worst record since the NFL expanded to 16 games in 1978 and the second-worst mark in team history after a 1-13 record back in 1969.

Minnesota has played itself out of postseason contention despite that 5-0 start and the Vikings are left searching for answers. "I really don't think the team lost confidence, I didn't lose confidence," Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer said. "Our penalties were up this year; our pre-snap penalties were up especially. Offensive penalties were up this year. There's a lot of things to evaluate and try and figure out why." The Vikings' once-stout defense has allowed 72 points the past two weeks but the Vikings still rank 2nd in yards allowed (314.2 YPG) and 8th in points allowed (19.8 per). Despite a non-existent running game which averages 72.1 YPG (32nd) on 3.1 YPC, Sam Bradford owns the highest completion percentage (71.3) in history and has received high marks across the board from Zimmer. “Maybe this is the best year he’s ever had,” Zimmer said. “If you put all those together and look at the things he’s had to deal with, I think he’s been amazing.” Bradford has a chance to eclipse the single-season completion percentage set by Drew Brees (71.2%) back in the 2011 season.

The Bears have been competitive at home but head into this Week 17 game 0-7 SU (2-5 ATS) on the road, getting outscored 26.7-to-15.3 PPG. Mike Zimmer is a fiery head coach and i expect him to have the primed for this revenge spot from a Week 8 loss on a MNF game in Chicago. Expect Bradford to be "on target" against a Chicago defense that has not generated a takeaway in FIVE of its last six games. The Vikings have covered 75 percent of their last 28 home games and have won their last four home games vs the Vikings. Make it five in row and with plenty of "room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

This is a 10* SIDE OF THE MONTH on Ohio State (7:00 EST).

Thirty-six years after Woody Hayes famously laid out a Clemson player before calling it quits as Buckeye coach, the teams are at it again in the post-season, and the winner of what is shaping up as possibly the most exciting game of the season will get a chance to play for the national title. Video of the Hayes’s  sucker punch will no doubt be shown during the Fiesta Bowl broadcast, but the real fun will be on the field. Both teams have great offense and great defenses, both teams have good coaches, and both teams have excellent football pedigrees. The difference in this one could very well be OSU QB J.T. Barrett. Barrett was the best quarterback in the Big Ten this past season, and Clemson will have to figure out a way to limit his running ability. In fact, Barrett may wind up with 25 or more carries. That should open up the passing game, where the Buckeyes are looking for wideout Noah Brown to have a big game. The line on this one opened with Ohio State as a 3-point favorite, but has moved up a tick to 3.5. Look for a tight game, with in-game adjustments by OSU coach Urban Meyer giving the Buckeyes an edge.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* December Bowl LEGEND is Florida State (8:00 EST).

The Seminoles had their sights set on a spot in the four-team championship playoffs this season, but that that went down the toilet in late October when FSU faded in the late going and lost to Clemson at home, 37-34. But the Orange Bowl is not a bad consolation prize, especially when you get to spend a week on South Beach getting ready for it. It’s hard to say what momentum means when a game is played more than a month after the conclusion of the regular season, but Florida State does come in with four wins in a row, and the Seminoles did win their final three by an average score of 40-11. So there’s that. More importantly, FSU is stacked with  quality players, including four unanimous All-ACC studs – running back Dalvin Cook, offensive tackle Rod Johnson, defensive end DeMarcus Walker and linebacker Tavarus McFaddden. Florida State is also catching Michigan at a good time – after a difficult season in which an emotional overtime loss to Ohio State cost the Wolverines their own shot at a berth in the Final Four. FSU is in prime position to win outright, even though they go in as 7-point underdogs.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Sun Bowl PERFECT STORM is on UNC (2:00 EST).

The 9-3 Stanford Cardinal get ready to battle the 8-4 North Carolina Tar Heels in the Sun Bowl on Friday afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors UNC.

Stanford closed the season with five straight wins, riding the strong play of RB Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey though won’t be playing in this bowl game, instead deciding to take his talents to the NFL. UNC is weak against the run, but now clearly catches a massive break in not having to face the dynamic Cardinal RB.

Tar Heels’ QB Mitch Trubisky has thrown for over 3,500 yards this year and is considered by many to be a Top ten pick. And he has plenty of weapons to throw to, including senior WR Ryan Switzer, who leads the team with 91 receptions and over 1,000 yards to go along with five major scores. Note that Trubisky has thrown 28 TD’s against just four INT’s this season.

I’ll point out that UNC is 3-1 ATS in non-conference games this year and 2-0 ATS off a loss against a conference rival, while Stanford is 0-2 ATS in its last two against teams with winning records.

If McCaffrey were playing, I’d probably be leaning towards Stanford in this one, but his absence is huge and will prove to be just too much for the Cardinal to overcome in my opinion. UNC can score with the best of them and I look for it to find a way to get the job done. Play on the Tar Heels.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Oklahoma State (9:00 EST).

The 10-3 Colorado Buffaloes get ready to battle the 9-3 Oklahoma State Cowboys in the Valero Alamo Bowl on Thursday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Cowboys.

The Buffs lost 41-10 to Washington in the PAC 12 Championship game, while Oklahoma State fell 38-20 to Oklahoma in BIG 12 Championship game. 

Colorado QB Sefo Liufau had a solid overall season, finishing with 2,171 yards and an 11:6 TD to INT ratio, while also rushing for seven major scores as well. Liufau looked poor in the loss to the Huskies though with zero TD’s and three INT’s. 

The Buffaloes average 32.8 PPG and concede 20.5.

Oklahoma State is led by QB Mason Rudolph, who finished with 3,777 yards and a 25:4 TD to INT ratio. Keep your eyes on Cowboys’ WR James Washington as well, he finished with 1,209 receiving yards. 

Overall Oklahoma State concedes 28.1 PPG, while averaging 38.7, ranked 19th overall in the country. 

It’s interesting to note that Colorado is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games played in the month of December, while OK State is 4-1 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records and 4-0 ATS in its last four following an ATS loss. 

Ultimately I feel that the Cowboys’ ninth ranked passing game will be just too much for Colorado to keep up with. The Buffs struggled against a similar high-powered offense in the Huskies and things aren’t going to get any easier for the secondary in facing Rudolph and company. 

Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Baylor (10:15 EST).

The 10-2 Boise State Broncos get ready to battle the 6-6 Baylor Bears in the Cactus Bowl on Tuesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the underdog. 

Boise State lost to Wyoming and Air Force and was just nine points away from playing in the Cotton Bowl. Suffice it to say, I think this one sets up as a classic “letdown” spot for the Broncos, who I think will come in a bit disinterested in this “lesser” Bowl game.

Baylor won its first six games, but then would drop its final six of the season. Says interim coach Jim Grobe: “I think our guys are looking forward to coaching these kids and getting them ready for a bowl game. So I feel good about playing in a bowl game,” he said. “This is going to be it for me, so I’d like to win it for sure.”

Shock Linwood isn’t playing for the Bears, but note that Baylor has excelled in this spot for bettors, going 3-1 ATS in its last four as an underdog and 3-1 ATS in its last four games played in the month of December, while Boise State has stumbled in this position, going just 2-4 ATS in its last six when playing with two or more weeks of rest and note that it’s just 3-9 ATS when playing the role of favorite this season. 

I think the Bears keep this one close for Grobe until the final moments. Grab as many points as you can, play on Baylor.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Washington State (7:00 EST).

The 8-4 Minnesota Golden Gophers are ready to battle the 8-4 Washington State Cougars in the Holiday Bowl at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego on Tuesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Cougars.

This is a battle of contrasting styles and suffice it to say, I think WSU’s high-flying offensive ways will be just too much for Minnesota to keep up with once it’s all said and done. 

Minnesota is backing its way into “Bowl Season,” as it lost two of its last three and has ten players suspended for this game tonight. In their final outing, the Golden Gophers fell 31-17 at Wisconsin. 

Minnesota is 31st in points allowed in conceding an average of 22.9 PPG, but I think it will have its hands full with WSU’s high-powered offense. The Golden Gophers are ranked 59th in scoring with just 30.3 PPG, the offense is led by RB Rodney Smith, who has 1,084 rushing yards and 15 TD’s this year. 

The Cougars are ranked second in the nation in passing, QB Luke Falk has 4,204 yards, 37 TD’s and just ten picks. While the Minnesota defense has been solid overall, the one area it’s struggled in is against the pass. And that’s where WSU clearly has the advantage today. Overall the Cougars are 14th in scoring with an average of 40.3 PPG and defensively the team concedes 27.2 PPG, which is ranked 28th.

I’ll point out though that Minnesota is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven non-conference games, while WSU is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 following a SU loss of more than 20 points. 

Neither team ended the year the way it wanted, but Minnesota is dealing with off-field issues right now as well. I think WSU does more than enough on both sides of the ball to easily secure the ATS cover. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Temple (3:30 EST).

The 10-3 Temple Owls are battling the 6-6 Wake Forest Deacons in the Military Bowl on Tuesday afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the high-flying Owls.

Temple won the AAC and finished with an 8-1 conference record, while Wake Forest lost its final three and finished with a 3-5 record in ACC play.

The Owls won their final seven games and crushed Navy 34-10 in the Championship Game. Philip Walker had two TD’s and zero INT’s in the victory and would finish with almost 2,900 passying yards, along with 20 TD’s for the season. Walker had 12 INT’s overall on the year, but note that he didn’t throw one over the final three games of the season.

Temple features a dynamic tandem at running back with Ryquell Armstead and Jahad Thomas, each who rushed for 918 yards on the season. The Owls enter averaging 32.8 PPG, while conceding only 17.2 PPG, ranked eighth overall in the country. 

Wake QB John Wolford had 1,591 passing yards and a poor 7:9 TD:INT ratio this year. The offense centers around the ground game as well, with three players rushing in the 500 yard range. Note though that the Demon Deacons average just 19.2 PPG. The defense has been their strong point, conceding only 21.8 PPG, ranked 21st in the nation.

I’ll point out though that Temple is 23-8 ATS in its last 31 following an ATS victory, while Wake Forest is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after allowing less than 20 points in its previous game.

I simply can’t see the Demon Deacons putting any points on the board against Temple’s top ranked defense. The Owls clearly possess the superior offense and in my opinion, this one has all the makings of a lop-sided rout from start to finish. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Detroit Lions (8:30 EST).

The 9-5 Detroit Lions are in Dallas to take on the 12-2 Cowboys and for a couple of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. 

Detroit won five-straight before falling to the Giants on the road last week. Meanwhile, the Cowboys defeated the Bucs 26-20 on Sunday night Football last week and have clinched a first round bye in the playoffs already.

It’s a natural letdown spot, but also note that the team has already statetd that it will rest any starters which it deems in risk of any sort of injury and it’s even been rumored that backup QB Tony Romo could see some action in the second half.

Lions’ QB Matt Stafford struggled last week, but I’m expecting a bounce back here as Dallas ranks 28th in defending the pass this season. 

The combination of RB Ezekiel Elliot and QB Dak Prescott, along with a Top 10 defensive unit and arguably the best offensive line in the league makes the Cowboys one of the favorites at this point to win Super Bowl 51. But as mentioned off the top, Dallas has already sewn up its positioning, so a mental letdown in this spot isn’t too difficult to imagine happening.

I’ll also point out that Detroit is 5-3 ATS this season when playing the role of underdog and 4-2 ATS against teams with winning records, while Dallas is just 3-4 ATS against clubs with winning records and just 12-15 ATS in its last 27 when playing the role of favorite.

While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing the points, play on Detroit.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Miami Ohio (11:00 AM EST).

The 6-6 Miami Ohio RedHawks are battling the 5-7 Mississippi State Bulldogs in the St. Petersburg Bowl on Monday morning and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the RedHawks.

Miami Ohio started the year 0-6, but then won its final six games, beating Ball State 21-20 at home on November 22nd to become bowl eligible. Suffice it to say, I think the RedHawks incredible momentum gets carried over into this one.

Mississippi State would snap a two-game slide by hammering Ole Miss 55-20 in the Egg Bowl on November 26th.

The RedHawks would finish 73rd in the nation in passing offense with 227.9 YPG and 1`1th in scoring offense with 23.4 PPG. Miami Ohio is stout defensively though in conceding just 24.3 PPG, ranked 41st in the country. QB Gus Ragland played half the season and finishd 93 of 149 for 1,274 yards, with 15 TD’s and no INT’s. 

The Bulldogs would finish 52nd in scoring offense with an average of 31.5 PPG, but 97th in scoring defense, allowing 33.1 PPG. QB Nick Fitzgerald finished 172 of 334 for 2,281 yards, 21 TD’s and ten INT’s. 

I’ll point out though that the RedHawks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight after posing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game, while the Bulldogs are just 1-5 ATS in their last six following an ATS victory. 

While I won’t be so bold as to predict an outright upset, I do think that coach Chuck Martin and his staff can keep this one competitive. Grab as many points as you can, play on Miami Ohio.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Kansas City Chiefs (8:30 EST).

The 8-6 Denver Broncos are in Kansas City to take on the 10-4 Chiefs on Christmas Day and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

Denver comes in off a disheartening 16-3 home loss to New England, while KC also enters off a brutal 19-17 setback to the Titans last week.

But if recent history is an evidence, then the Chiefs have to be liking their chances for a bounce back performance here, as they’d beat the Broncos in Denver 30-27 in OT in Week 12. 

The Broncos started the season strong, but have been consistently inconsistent over the last two months. Last week QB Trevor Siemian had 283 yards, no TD’s and one INT. RB Jordan Norwood would fumble the ball twice, part of three total turnovers in the game for the defending champs.

The defense continues to be Denver’s strong point, last week holding Tom Brady to just 188 passing yards and no TD’s. The unit concedes just 18.4 PPG overall.

But I think that defense has a letdown here against the dangerous Chiefs offense which is itching to take out its frustrations on someone after last week’s collapse. 

KC actually had a 17-7 halftime lead, but was unable to score in the second half against Tennesse and it eventually blew it. QB Alex Smith was just 15 of 28 for 163 yards, zero TD’s and one INT. 

I like Smith to bounce back here though, note that the Chiefs average 22.8 PPG, which ranks them 15th overall. 

But the biggest difference maker for me today is KC’s underappreciated defensive unit, one which concedes just 19.6 PPG, ranked eighth overall. 

And from a trend based stand point, this one absolutely sets up great for the home side, as note that Denver is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records and only 1-5 ATS in its last six divisional games, while KC is 5-0 ATS in its last five following an ATS loss, 4-0 ATS in its last four following a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records.

Denver’s defense is amazing, but as good as it is, is as bad as the offense is, managing just one TD over the last two games combined. And now the Broncos face one of the best defenses in the league in a critical game on national TV on its own field (note that KC has given up just one passing TD over its last three outings). 

All five of the Chiefs home victories this year have come by at least five points and I expect that and the rest of the trends listed above, to continue on Christmas Day.

Play on Kansas City as my 2016/17 NFL Game Of The Year!

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New Orleans Saints (4:25 EST).

The 8-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in New Orleans to take on the 6-8 Saints and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

Tampa Bay lost 26-20 to Dallas last Sunday, while the Saints come off a hard-fought 48-41 road win at Arizona last week. 

Note that the Saints play with revenge today after falling 16-11 to the Bucs two weeks ago.

Tampa’s playoff hopes took a big hit last week, it’s now tied with Green Bay on the outside of the Wildcard picture. Note the Bucs are conceding an average of 24 PPG, ranked 18th overall, while posting 22.4 per game, placing them 18th in the league.

Last week Saints’ QB Drew Brees had 389 yards, four TD’s and no INT’s. Suffice it to say, I expect the veteran to carry that momentum over here. 

And I’ll point out that Tampa is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten “dome” games, while New Orleans is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 in revenging a loss against an opponent.

I think the stage is now set for a big Tampa letdown and I look for Brees and company to take full advantage. Lay the points with confidence.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Browns (1:00 EST).

The 5-9 San Diego Chargers are in Cleveland to take on the 0-14 Browns and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

Cleveland most recenlty fell 33-13 in Buffalo last week. 

San Diego has been eliminated from playoff contention and has lost three in a row, most recently at the hands of the Raiders.

So which of these two teams has more to play for today?

Clearly the answer is the winless Browns, who will still get the first draft pick if they manage to get off the schneid with an outright victory.

Last week San Diego QB Philip Rivers passed for only 206 yards, while the ground game posted a mere 73. Note that Rivers and company haven’t score more than 21 points in any of their last four games.

Robert Griffin III though is playing for his career right now. Last week he was 17 of 28 for 196 yards, no TD’s and no INT’s. 

San Diego is without starting RB Melvin Gordon and top WR Keenan Allen and has little to play for.

This is the Browns best opportunity for a victory this season and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will ultimately recommend grabbing as many points as you can in this fantastic situational opportunity. 

Good luck…Larry

My 10* NFL Week 16 Las Vegas Insider is on the Buf Bills at 1:00 ET.

The Dolphins won 34-13 in frigid New Jersey last Saturday night, improving to 9-5. They currently own the No. 6 seed in the AFC playoff picture, the second of two wild cards. Miami stays on the road this Sunday and travels to upstate New York to take on the Buffalo Bills, who at 7-7, have about a one percent chance of making the playoffs. It will again be cold (expected to be in the 30s) but not nearly as bad as last Saturday night.

The Dolphins’ six-game winning streak was snapped 38-6 by the Ravens in Week 13 but Miami rebounded with a 26-23 win over the Cardinals in Week 14. However, the Dolphins lost starting QB Ryan Tannehill to a left knee injury in that contest. The Dolphins selected Tannehill in the first round of the 2012 draft and he had started the first 77 games of his career but it was Matt Moore who took place last Saturday against the Jets. Moore went 3-of-5 for 47 yards and directed the game-winning drive  (ended in a FG) against the Cards but he entered the game against the Jets having attempted just 35 passes since the start of the 2012 season. Surprisingly, in tough conditions, he completed 12 of 18 for 236 yards with four TD passes and one INT (126.2 QB rating!).

The Bills jumped at the opportunity to hire Rex Ryan after the 2014 season, when he was fired by the Jets. I was never quite sure why, as he had gone 26-38 the previous four years with New York, without a winning season. As he is prone to do, Rex opened his “big fat mouth” right away, promising to return the Bills to the playoffs (Buffalo’s last postseason appearance came back in 1999). Well, after an 8-8 season last year, the Bills are 7-7 in 2016 and as noted earlier, have about a one-percent chance of making this year’s postseason field. Ryan is supposed to be a “defensive guy,” yet his Bills are a middle-of-the-pack 16th in yards allowed (349.2 YPG) and 14th in points allowed (22.4 PPG). I’m not quite sure what to make of QB Trod Taylor, as he hasn’t made many mistakes (14-6 ratio) and is an excellent runner (520 yards on 6.3 YPC with six TDs) but the Bills rank 31st (of 32 teams) in passing at 182.6 YPG. They are the NFL’s top rushing team, (163.6 YPG on 5.5 YPC), led by RB McCoy, who has 1,129 yards on 5.5 YPC with 12 TDs.

It seems highly unlikely that Moore will repeat last week’s heroics plus RB Ajayi, who had back-to-back 200-year rushing games in Weeks 6 & 7 (as well as an 111-yard effort in his next game), has not reached 80 yards rushing in any of his last six outings. He’s averaged only 51.3 YPG (on 3.0 YPC) over his last four. Meanwhile, the Bills (the league's No. 1 rushing team) will be up against a Miami rush D which ranks 30th against the run, allowing 132.5 YPG on 4.8 YPC. The Dolphins have lost at Buffalo by 16, 19 and 19 points the past three years, while compiling a woeful total of just 27 points (9.0 per!). Last week’s ATS win at the Jets marked just Miami’s second cover in its last 14 December games. The Bills earn a top rating of 10*s in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Armed Forces Bowl PERFECT STORM is on Louisiana Tech (4:30 EST). 

The 8-5 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs are playing against the 9-4 Navy Midshipmen in the Armed Forces Bowl on Friday afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Bulldogs.

Louisiana Tech will be especially motivated in this one I think after dropping its last two, most recently falling 58-44 to WKU in the Conference USA title game. 

The Midshipmen can empathize, they also come in having lost two straight, most recently to Temple in the AAC Championship game. Navy lost its starting QB in the final regular season game and then its starting RB suffered an injury in the Championship game.

Suffice it to say, I think the Bulldogs take advantage. 

The Midshipmen are ranked 22nd in the country in scoring with 37.5 PPG, but as just mentioned, that offense has recently taken a major hit. 

Louisiana Tech puts up 44 points and concedes 32.7. QB Ryan Higgins has 4,208 passing yards and a 37:8 TD/INT ratio. 

And that doesn’t bode well for a medicore Navy defense which allows 30.4 PPG. 

I’ll also point out that Louisiana Tech is 7-0 ATS in its last seven after allowing more than 40 points in its previous contest, while Navy is 0-4 ATS in its last four against teams with winning records.

If Navy had its starting QB under center, I’d likely think differently about this one. However, that’s not the case. The Bulldogs’ high-flying offense is going to prove to be too much for the Midshipmen to keep up to down the stretch in my opinion. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Bahamas Bowl PERFECT STORM is on Eastern Michigan (1:00 EST).

The 7-5 Eastern Michigan Eagles are playing the 9-3 Old Dominion Monarchs on Friday afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Eagles.

EMU finished fourth in the MAC West, while ODU finished 7-1 in conference play.

The Eagles are playing in their first bowl game since 1987. QB Brogan Roback had 2,394 passing yards and a 16:6 TD/INT ratio after missing the first three games of the year.

EMU posted an average of 30.4 PPG, ranked 58th overall, while conceding 30.3 PPG, ranked 80th.

The Monarchs are playing their first-ever bowl game. QB David Washington had 2,648 yards and a 28:4 TD/INT ratio. ODU would go on to finish 27th in the nation in scoring with an average of 36 PPG, while conceding 27.8 PPG, ranked 64th.

I’ll point out though that EMU is 6-2 ATS as an underdog this year and 3-1 ATS in non-conference games, while ODU is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 non-conference contests. 

With the extra time off to prepare, I think that Roback and company can take this one down to the wire. Play on Eastern Michigan.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Philadelphia Eagles (8:25 EST).

The 10-4 New York Giants are in Philadelphia to take on the 5-9 Eagles and despite having been eliminated from contention already, I think this one favors the home side.

New York is looking to grab the top wildcard spot in the NFC, but plays its final two games of the year on the road, where it’s just 3-3 so far.

The Giants most recently beat the Lions 17-6 at home on Sunday, but the Eagles also play with revenge today after dropping the first meeting of the year 28-23. 

New York’s weak point is its offense. Last week Eli Manning was 20 of 28 for 201 yards, two TD’s and no picks. But on the season the offense averages just 320.6 YPG, including only 81.2 on the ground. The Giants get the job done on the defensive end, conceding just 17.9 PPG. 

Philadelphia had a chance to keep its playoff hopes alive last week, but QB Carson Wentz’s pass to Jordan Matthews for a two point conversion was tipped at the line. I think the Eagles and Wentz come out fired up this week. RB Ryan Mathews had 128 yards on 20 carries and a TD. 

The Eagles rank ninth overall in rushing yards with 112.9 per game, but are just 24th in passing YPC at 227.5. Defensively they’re ranked in the middle of the pack, conceding 344.2 YPG, 12th overall.

I’ll point out that New York is just 2-3 ATS on the road this season and only 5-7 ATS in its last 12 after two or more consecutive SU victories, while Philadelphia is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 after two or more consecutive SU losses and 4-2 ATS this year when playing in front of the home town crowd.

The Eagles won’t be rolling over today and while I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Philadelphia.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Colorado State.

The 7-5 Colorado State Rams battle the 8-4 Idaho Vandals in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl on Thursday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Rams.

Colorado State won four of its last five games, while Idaho won its final four in the regular season. 

The Rams looked impressive in their final game, smashing SDSU 63-31. QB Nick Stevens posted a season-high four TD’s in the victory. CSU also features a strong run game, led by Izzy Matthews and Dalyn Dawkins. The Rams would finish the season averaging 34.1 PPG, ranked 31st in the country. The defense was not the strength of the team, but it was decent, conceding just 27.8 PPG in the end. 

The Vandals will likely be playing their final bowl game in quite some time as the team will drop from FBS to FCS next year. QB Matt Linehan had over 2,800 yards passing, 15 TD’s and ten INT’s. Like the Rams, Idaho features a strong running tandem in Aaron Duckworth and Isaiah Saunders.

The Vandals though posted just 28.2 PPG, which placed them 68th overall.

Their defense was a strong point, allowing 29.8 PPG, ranked 77th. 

I’ll point out though that Colorado State is 14-3-1 ATS in its last 18 non-conference games, while Idaho is 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 against teams with winning records. 

I think the Rams are going to be able to contain this rather vanilla Vandals’ offense, while at the same time, I expect Colorado State’s superior offensive unit to prove to be too much for Idaho to keep up with down the stretch. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Wyoming (9:00 EST).

The 8-5 Wyoming Cowboys get ready to battle the 8-4 BYU Cougars in the Poinsettia Bowl on Wednesday night and for a number of different reasons I think this one favors Wyoming. 

BYU won its final four games, while Wyoming lost to SDSU in the Mountain West Championship game. 

It was “oh so close” for the Cowboys against the Aztecs, but in the end they’d fall 27-24. QB Josh Allen threw an uncharacteristic two INT’s in the setback. He also had three TD’s. RB Brian Hill had 1,213 yards on the season, ranking him fourth in the country. 

Note that Wyoming averages 37.1 PPG, which ranks 24th overall. The defense has been the weak point, conceding 34.8 PPG. 

But that defense catches a break in facing a BYU team which will be without the services of starting QB Taysom Hill, who suffered a season-ending injury in the final game of the campaign. That means that Tanner Mangum will get the call. Mangum is a competent replacement, finishing with 3,377 yards, 23 TD’s and ten INT’s last year. 

That said though, clearly he’s been thrust into the spotlight tonight and I think he’s going to stumble on the national stage. And note, BYU wasn’t fantastic offensively anyways, averaging 30 PPG, which ranks 62nd. The defense was the strong point, ranked 15th in conceding an average of 19.4 PPG. 

I’ll point out though that Wyoming is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games while BYU is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten non-conference contests.

The Cowboys feature a dynamic offense, one which I think the Cougars will have a hard time matching pace against. Losing Hill is significant and a factor which I think the books haven’t properly taken into account. Grab as many points as you can, play on Wyoming.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Boca Raton Bowl Blowout Special is on Western Kentucky (7:00 EST).

The 8-4 Memphis Tigers are battling the 10-3 WKU Hilltoppers in the Boca Raton Bowl on Tuesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Western Kentucky.

WKU is coming off its second straight Conference USA championship after topping Louisiana Tech 58-44 in the title game. 

Memphis won three of its final four, including a 48-44 upset over Houston in its regular season finale.

Tigers’ QB Riley Ferguson threw for 3,326 yards this year and leads an offense which averaged 39.5 PPG. Memphis would also go on to allow just 27 PPG. 

The Hilltopers defense ranks No. 29 nationally in opponent yards per play (5.12). They also rank 39th nationally in total points per game at just 24.1. QB Mike White is the focal point of an offense that averages 517.4 yards per game and 45.1 points per contest (that’s second overall in the country). 

WKU has held three of its last five opponents to under ten points and recorded five sacks against Louisiana Tech in the C-USA Championship game. 

I’ll point out that Memphis is just 1-4 ATS in its last five neutral site games, while WKU is 5-1 ATS in its last six following a SU victory.

Ultimately I think that WKU is more tested, it’s non-conference schedule was tough, featuring games against the likes of Alabama and Vanderbilt. I have a hard time seeing Memphis keeping pace and look for the Hilltoppers to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Washington Redskins (8:30 EST).

The 5-8 Carolina Panthers are in the nation’s capital to take on the 7-5-1 Redskins and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

The Panthers have been relegated to the spoiler role, while Washington is still fighting for a Wild Card spot. Washington is primed for a big day in front of the home town crowd in my opinion after dropping two of its last three contests by single-digit margins on the road. 

Carolina will most likely be without star LB Luke Kuechly once again. Note that the Panthers have only won once on the road this year.

In last week’s home win over San Diego, Cam Newton posted an unspectacular 160 yards passing, one TD and a pick. Carolina looked pretty good defensively, but the secondary has been “hit-or-miss” all season. 

And that secondary will be tested early and often by Washington QB Kirk Cousins, who has over 4,000 yards passing this year. 

I’ll point out that Carolina is just 1-8-1 ATS in its last ten on the road, while Washington is 8-2 ATS in its last ten against teams with losing records. 

It’s do or die for the Redskins and I think Cousins will be able to easily exploit the Panthers’ third worst pass defense in the NFL. I look for the visitors go through the motions today and for the motivated home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable cover.

Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Tulsa (2:30 EST).

Central Michigan and Tulsa get ready to battle in the Miami Beach Bowl on Monday afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Golden Hurricane. 

The Chippewas are going to struggle to keep pace with Tulsa in my opinion, CMU enters this one averaging 27 PPG. The Golden Hurricane on the other hand average 41 PPG. 

It’s interesting to note that Tulsa has scored more than 31 points in every game this year, except a three-point performance in a blowout loss to Ohio State. 

Central Michigan has a decent defense, but I think it will have a hell of a time trying to slow down Tulsa RB’s D’Angelo Brewer and James Flanders, both who rushed for over 1,300 yards this year while combining for 24 TD’s. 

As Cooper Rush goes, so go the Chips. Central Michigan would back its way into the bowl season, going 5-2 to open the year, but then losing four of its final five. Over those last five games the Chips managed 17, 24, 17, 27 and 21 points. 

In his final regular seaosn game, Rush had just 256 yards with no TD’s and an INT. Rush would close the season with 13 INT’s total. 

Tulsa was 9-3 and ended the season with two straight wins. QB Dane Evans had over 3,000 yards and 27 TD’s. But as mentioned above, the run game is even better, with Flanders leading the way with 1,529 yards and 17 TD’s.

Note that the Golden Hurricane rank sixth in the country in yards per game at 523.2 YPG. 

I’ll also point out that CMU is 1-4 ATS in its last five following a SU loss, while Tulsa is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine following an ATS loss. 

This is a big mismatch and I’m expecting a rout from start to finish. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Dallas Cowboys (8:30 EST).

The 8-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in Dallas to take on the 11-2 Cowboys and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

The Bucs are poised for a letdown here after their big divisional win at home over the Saints last Sunday (16-11), while the Cowboys are primed for a bounce back after falling 10-7 on the road to the Giants on Sunday night. 

Last week’s win was Tampa’s fifth in a row. QB Jameis Winston had an unspectacular 184 yards, zero TD’s and zero INT’s. RB Doug Martin had 66 yards off 23 carries and one TD. WR Mike Evans had four catches for 42 yards. Tampa now faces two tough road games to end the year, this week in Dallas and then next Sunday in New Orleans.

It’s not too hard to imagine the visitors getting caught looking ahead to that divisional contest.

Granted the Bucs looked pretty good defensively, holding Drew Brees to 257 passing yards while also grabbing three INT’s, but those types of performances have been few and far between for Tampa this season though and now the unit will have its hands full with a determined Dak Prescott and Cowboys teams which faltered for the first time last weekend.

Prescott was just 17 of 37 for 165 yards, one TD and two INT’s. Dez Bryant had just one catch for ten yards. RB Ezekiel Elliot was the lone bright spot, finishing with 107 yards off 24 carries. The Bucs defense will be tested by the sixth ranked offensive unit which averages 26.2 PPG. 

The Cowboys continued their strong defensive play last weekend, holding Eli Manning to 193 passing yards and allowed a total of just 93 rushing yards as well. Note that Dallas concedes just 18.3 PPG, ranked fifth overall.

I’ll point out that the Bucs are just 2-3 ATS against teams with winning records this year and only 1-4 ATS off a win against a division rival, while Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last six at home and 3-1 ATS off a divisional contest.

I like Prescott and company to bounce back at home and as mentioned off the top, in my professional opinion the table is set for a letdown for the visitors. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Diego Chargers (4:25 EST).

The 10-3 Oakland Raiders are in San Diego to take on the 5-8 Chargers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

The Raiders won six in a row before stumbling at Kansas City last Thursday and I think are poised for a letdown here as well.

Conversely, the underachieving Chargers will be hungry after consecutive losses to Tampa Bay and Carolina.

Last week Raiders’ QB Derek Carr was just 17 of 41 for 117 yards. 

The Chargers took a hit when RB Melvin Gordon went down last week, but dodged a bullet on the defensive side of the ball as rookie standout Joey Bosa does not have a concussion as initially feared. Philip Rivers and the Bolts have lost plenty of close games this year and I think will remain competitive until the end of the season.

Also note that Oakland is just 1-3 ATS this year against the division and 1-2 ATS against teams with losing records, while San Diego is 3-0 ATS in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, 2-0 ATS after two or more consecutive losses and 4-2 ATS against teams with winning records.

This one sets up as a trap and while I would not be shocked by an upset, I’ll recommend grabbing the points. Play on the Chargers.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NFL Week 15 Las Vegas Insider is on the Arz Cardinals at 4:05 ET.

The Cardinals went 13-3 last season and made the NFC championship game, where Carson Palmer imploded with four INTs and two fumbles, as Arizona lost 49-15 to Carolina. However, along with the Panthers (and Seahawks), the Cardinals were among the favorites to represent the NFC in Super Bowl 51. However, the season started poorly with a 23-21 home loss in Week 1 to the Pats, who played without Brady (and Gronk). The Cards have never found their ‘sea legs’ in 2016. An offense which ranked No.1 in yards per game (408.3) and second in scoring (30.6 PPG) in 2015, has averaged a more modest 363.8 YPG (10th) in 2016 and finds itself a middling 15th in scoring (23.0 PPG).

The Saints entered the season having gone 7-9 in THREE of the previous four seasons, making the postseason only in 2013 at 11-5. However, at 5-8, the Saints are all but guaranteed to miss the playoffs for the FOURTH time in the last five seasons here in 2016. New Orleans looked OK at the season’s mid-point at 4-4 but they’ve lost FOUR of their last five, beating only the Rams in that span (note: Rams have lost EIGHT of their last nine, heading into Week 15!). The Saints exploded for 49 points in beating the Rams but have averaged just 16.8 PPG in those four losses. That includes averaging just 12.0 PPG in losing their last two games, as Drew Brees has thrown SIX interceptions and not a single TD pass in those games (he’s attempted 85 passes!) Those type of results are unimaginable for Brees and while his 2016 numbers remain impressive (70.6% / 4,170 yards / 30-14 ratio / 100.7 QB rating), it’s clear that the Saints are a team in decline. The running game averages just 104.4 YPG (18th) and the defense remains among the worst in the NFL, checking 30th in points allowed at 27.0 per.

The Cards defense has fought hard all season and will come into this game ranked No. 1 in allowing just 298.5 YPG. Let me also note that Arizona’s pass D is up to the task of continuing Drew Brees’ current woes, as the Cards rank 2nd with 201.8 YPG allowed through the air. The Cardinals have allowed only just 13 TD passes through 13 games and not a single 300-yard passing game. I saw where someone wrote that Carson Palmer looked “washed-up” last week and that is probably a fair critique. Coming off a career season last year (4,671 yards / 35-11 ratio / 104.6 QB rating), Palmer has 20 TDs and 13 INTs with a QB rating of just 83.9.

However, a closer look reveals he’s got a 9-10 ratio (70.5 QB rating) in road games, while at home, he’s go 11 TDs and just three INTs with a 93.9 rating. RB David Johnson plays great home and away and enters with 1,085 rushing yards (11 TDs) plus 69 catches (10.8 YPC) and four more TDs. It’s been a deeply disappointing season for Arizona (Seattle will have likely clinched the NFC West by beating the Rams at home on Thursday) but this is Arizona’s final home game of 2016 and I expect the Saints to play the perfect foil. Arizona wins here by double digits.

Good luck...Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Eagles (1:00 EST). 

The 5-8 Philadelphia Eagles are at Baltimore to take on the Ravens on Sunday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

The Eagles are just playing out their season after falling 27-22 to Washington on Sunday. Rookie QB Carson Wentz will get the call until the end of the year, last week he was a strong 32 of 46 for 314 yards, one TD and one pick. TE Zach Ertz had ten catches for 112 yards. So far Philadelphia has averaged 341.4 yards per game on offense and is conceding just 20.9 PPG, ranked 12th overall.

Baltimore was sloppy last weekend and I think it’s a sign of things to come. In all the Ravens would commit eight penalites for 47 yards and one turnover. They also made several major mistakes on special teams. QB Joe Flacco was 37 of 53 for 324 yards, two TD’s and one INT. RB Kenneth Dixon had just 39 yards on 11 carries. Flacco is an unremarkable 17 TD’s to 12 INT’s on the year. 

I’ll point out that Philadelphia is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games (including 2-1 ATS this year), 6-4 ATS in its last ten after two or more consecutive losses and 6-2 ATS in its last eight off a loss against a conference rival, while Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in its last six as a home fav in the 3.5 to seven points range and already 0-3 ATS in non-conference contests this year.

Baltimore is still in the playoff hunt, but Wentz and company won’t be going down without a fight. They’ll also be relishing the role of spoiler. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can.

Play on Philadelphia.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the New York Jets (8:25 EST).

The 8-5 Miami Dolphins are in New York to take on the 4-9 Jets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

Last week New York came from behind to beat San Francisco 23-17 in OT last week, while Miami beat the Cards 26-23 at home. 

Note that the Jets play with revenge today after the Fish beat them 27-23 in Week 9. 

Miami’s win last week came at a big price though, as starting QB Ryan Tannehill went down with a knee injury and didn’t return. He’s now been ruled out for the rest of the season with a torn ACL. Matt Moore took over in relief and he was 3 of 5 for 47 yards. Moore has only attempted 30 passes over the last three seasons. RB Jay Ajayi has struggled over the last month and had just 48 yards off 20 carries. 

So for the Dolphins average 21.6 PPG and concede 23.2.

Bryce Petty got the start at QB last week and he’d go 23 of 35 for 257 yards, no TD’s and one INT in the Jets’ come from behind win. RB Bilal Powell had 145 yards and two TD’s. New York ranks near the bottom of the league on both sides of the ball, but it looked a lot better in all phases last week, especially on the defensive end, holding Colin Kaepernick to just 120 passing yards.

I’ll point out that Miami is just 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games played in the month of December and just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 versus the division, while New York is 7-2 ATS in its last nine contests played in December and 9-4 ATS in its last 13 against the division.

I think the loss of Tannehill is significant. I also think that Petty and the Jets looked a lot better in the second half of their victory last week and expect them to carry that momentum over here. Play on New York.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Camellia Bowl Las Vegas Insider is on Toledo (5:30 EST).

The 9-3 Appalachian State Mountaineers face off against the 9-3 Toledo Rockets in the Camellia Bowl on Saturday afternoon in what is a contrast in styles.

The Mountaineers feature a stingy defense, while Toledo owns a prolific offense.

For a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the high-flying Rockets.

App State finished co-champion of the Sun Belt, while Toledo fell to 55-35 to WMU in its season finale. 

The Mountaineers’ offense revolves around RB’s Jalin Moore (1,367 yards and ten TD’s) and Marcus Fox (854 yards and nine major scores). QB Taylor Lamb is average, finishing with 2,162 passying yards with 14 TD’s and eight picks. 

App State averages 29.1 PPG, but concedes just 326.5 yards per game.

But that defense is about to face a stiff test in Toledo today, which finished ranked ninth in the country in passing. QB Logan Woodside leads the nation with 43 TD passes, while RB Kareem Hunt has 1,355 yards rushing. The defense has been average, but it hasn’t needed to be great with Woodside leading the charge. 

I’ll point out that App State is 0-4 ATS following an ATS victory, while Toledo is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five against the Sun Belt. 

I think the level of competition in the MAC is much more difficult than the Sun Belt. Woodside is the correct call in this one, play on Toledo.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Seattle Seahawks (8:25 EST).

The 4-9 LA Rams are in Seattle to take on the 8-4-1 Seahawks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. LA is in dissary after firing head coach Jeff Fisher, who was let go after the team lost its fourth straight and eighth in its last nine. 

Most recently the Rams were hammered 42-14 at home by Atlanta. 

Seattle is looking to bounce back after a 38-10 defeat at snowy Lambeau last weekend and it’ll also be out to atone for a 9-3 loss to LA back on September 18th. 

The Hawks have caught LA at the most opportune of times, as note that the Rams have been outscored 117-45 in their last three games. 

Rams’ rookie QB Jared Goff has now completed just 55.1 percent of his passs for 744 yards, four TD’s and five picks. RB Todd Gurley has taken a major step back in his second year, having just 740 rushing yards and five TD’s on 3.3 yards per carry.

Russell WIlson struggled last week in Green Bay, going 22 of 39 for 240 yards, one TD and a career high five INT’s. At 8-4-1 though, the Seahawks are looking pretty good in the NFC West and they’ll now look to return to form in front of the home town crowd.

Note that Seattle still ranks among the best in the league on the defensive end, conceding just 17.8 PPG

I’ll point out that LA is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 after two or more consecutive SU losses, while Seattle is 3-0 ATS in its last three “Thursday Night” games and 2-1 ATS in its last three in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent.

I expect Wilson and the Hawks to bounce back in a big way and think that LA struggles with consistency on both sides of the ball and in the coaching transition. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the New England Patriots (8:30 EST).

The 7-5 Baltimore Ravens are in New England to take on the 10-2 Patriots and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

Baltimore has won two straight, most recenlty crushing Miami last weekend. QB Joe Flacco had four TD’s and 381 passying yards. Beating Ryan Tannehill and the Fish is one thing, imposing your will over Tom Brady and the No. 6 ranked offense in total yards gained is entirely another though. 

Last week Brady became the all-time winningest QB in the NFL in his team’s 26-10 win over the Rams last week. Malcolm Mitchell and Julian Edelman combined for 16 catches and 183 yards. 

From a trend based stand point, this one sets up perfectly for the home side, as I’ll point out that Baltimore is 0-4 ATS in its last four on the road, while New England is interestingly 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in its previous contest.

Baltimore has done well at home and struggled on the road. I think that trend continues here. After already getting thumped at home by the Seahawks on national TV, I expect Bill Belichick to have his troops focused tonight. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Green Bay Packers (4:25 EST).

The 8-3-1 Seattle Seahawks are in Green Bay to take on the 6-6 Packers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

Green Bay has won two straight, most recently a hard-fought 21-13 victory over the Texans. Seattle has been playing well and would crush Carolina 40-7 last week. 

After only scoring five points in Week 12 against Tampa Bay, the Seahawks looked much better against Carolina, led by QB Russell Wilson who was 26 of 36 for 277 yards and a TD. Seattle though is poised for a letdown as it’s already wrapped up the NFC West, sitting 3.5 games ahead of Arizona. 

Note that the Hawks average just 22 PPG, ranked 20th overall. The strength of the team lays on the defensive side of the ball as the unit concedes just 16.2 PPG, ranked No. 1 in the league.

Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers had 209 yards and two TD’s in the snowy conditions last week. So far he has 29 TD’s to just seven INT’s. WR Jordy Nelson was a standout with 118 yards and a TD. 

Note that the Packers average 24.6 PPG, ranked tenth overall. The defense has been a weak point for Green Bay, the unit concedes 25.2 PPG. But that said, there’s no question that the Packers looked a lot better last week, holding Texans’ RB Lamar Miller to just 22 rushing yards (note that the defense has in fact allowed just 13 points in each of the last two games).

I’ll point out that Seattle is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four against Green Bay, while the Packers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

I think Seattle comes in a bit complacent here after the big home win, while Rodgers and company once again take advantage of familiar surroundings. While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by the outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Packers.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Rams (4:25 EST).

The 7-5 Atlanta Falcons are in LA to take on the 4-8 Rams and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

LA has lost seven of its last eight, but hasn’t thrown in the towel yet, most recently falling to New England.

Atlanta is just 3-4 after a 4-1 start and is most recently coming off a frustrating 29-28 home loss to KC last weekend. 

The Falcons have to be especially deflated after last week’s setback, as after erasing a double-digit deficit to take a 28-27 lead, Chiefs’ safety Eric Bery intercepted the ensuing two-point conversion and returned it for the improbable 29-28 victory.

The Rams were in over their heads last week, posting only 25 yards in the first half, before then recovering in the second to make it look somewhat respectable. Jared Goff has now completed 51 of 95 attempts for 509 yards, four TD’s and three INT’s. But thankfully for Goff and the home side, they’re going up against Atlanta’s atrocious secondary today. Goff and company did put up three TD’s against the Saints a couple weeks back, so should also have plenty of opportunity to move the ball today as well.

I’ll point out that Atlanta is just 5-17 ATS in its last 22 as a favorite (including only 2-4 ATS this season), while LA is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a home dog of 3.5 to seven points.

While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I’m going to recommend grabbing the points as I look for Goff to play much better in friendlier confines. 

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Jets (4:05 EST).

The 3-9 New York Jets are in San Francisco to take on the 1-11 49ers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

Last week San Francisco fell 26-6 at Chicago, while New York was trounced 41-10 by Indianapolis on Monday night (note that I had the Colts in that one). 

Jets’ QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was only five of 12 for 81 yards, no TD’s and one INT last week. Bryce Petty came on in relief and he’d go 11 of 25 for 135 yards, one TD and two INT’s. Petty has been given the green light for the final four games of the season and looked a lot better than Fitzpatrick, despite the two picks. 

San Francisco’s QB situation is much worse though. Colin Kaepernick was benched during the fourth quarter last week after completing one of five passes for four yards. Blaine Gabbert came in in relief and was 4 of 10 for 35 yards. 

I’ll point out that New York is interestingly 6-2 ATS in its last eight games played in the month of December, while San Francisco is just 1-4 ATS this year against teams with losing records and just 8-14 ATS in its last 22 in front of the home town crowd.

I think that Petty is better than either Gabbert or Kaepernick and believe that’s going to be the difference in end between these two cellar dwellers. Play on New York.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* NFL Week Las Vegas Insider is on the Was Redskins at 1:00 ET.

Philadelphia’s 3-0 SU & ATS start has been put in the ‘rearview mirror,’ as the Eagles are 2-7 in their last nine games, failing to cover any of those seven losses. The Redskins opened 0-2 but then won four in a row. However, Washington is just 2-3-1 over its last six games and at 6-5-1, sits seventh in the NFC, when only six teams make the postseason. These NFC East rivals meet for the second time on Sunday,  with Washington winning 27-20 at home back in Week 6. However, the game was not as close as the final score, as the Redskins outgained the Eagles, 493-239 in total yards.

The Eagles have currently turned into a bottom-six NFL team, done in by weak skill position players, made even weaker by key injuries and a defense which, after a strong start, has allowed 26 points or more in FIVE of the last six games. Rookie QB  Carson Wentz averaged 256.3 YPG through the air with five TDs and zero INTs as the Eagles opened 3-0. He had a 7-1 TD-to-INT ratio through five games but over the last seven, has just five TD passes and 10 INTs, earning a QB rating below 76.0 in FIVE of those seven games (it’s just 80.1 for the year). His best WR, Jordan Matthews (57 catches / 686 yards) has ankle issues and missed last week’s game (remains questionable for this one) and leading rusher Ryan Matthews has missed two straight games with a knee issue (is also questionable for this one).

The Redskins won the division last year and may be a better team in 2016 but the problem is, the Cowboys have been the NFL’s best team in 2016 at 11-1 and the vastly improved Giants are 8-3. QB Cousins has proven doubters wrong, as he’s completing 67.5% and his 309.1 YPG through tyeh air ranks 2nd in the NFL (21-8 ratio for a QB rating of 99.6).  Washington owns a deep group of receivers, as Cousins has targets like DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon,  Jamison Crowder and Vernon Davis. It’s an added bonus if star TE Jordan Reed can play after missing last Sunday with a shoulder injury. Note that the Eagles have only six sacks in their last six games and the team's battered secondary has permitted multiple TD passes in SEVEN of their last nine games.

Washington’s defense is mediocre at best (24.6 PPG to rank 20th) but the Philly offense has scored 15, 13 and 14 points the last three weeks! The Eagles have ‘hit a wall’ but Washington is still very much alive for a playoff berth. A win here and Washington faces the crumbling 4-8 Panthers and the sad-sack 3-9 Bears the next two weeks. A win here could be the first of a three-game winning streak which would put Washington at 9-5-1 heading into a Week 17 game with the Giants. Not getting ahead of myself but Washington (8-2 ATS in its last 10!) earns a top-rating of 10*s in this Week 14 game.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Navy (3:00 EST).

The 6-5 Army Black Knights get ready to battle the 9-3 Midshipmen in the annual rivalry game from M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore on Saturday afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Navy.

Army routed Morgan State 60-3 in its last action (over three weeks ago), while Navy lost 34-10 to Temple last weekend. If history is any precedence, then the Midshipmen have to be liking their chances today in a big bounce back effort as they’ve won every game in this series since 2002. 

Army likes to run the ball alot, so junior QB Ahmad Bradshaw isn’t asked to do too much. The Black Knights average 30 PPG, ranked 62nd overall in the FBS. The defense has been very good as well, conceding an average of 19.1 PPG, ranked 14th. Note that Andy Davidson has 818 rushing yards.

Navy fell to Temple in the AAC Title game, as starting QB Will Worth was injured early and backup Zach Abbey would go just 7 of 13 for 104 yards. Abbey though had 70 yards rushing and a major score.

Note that despite the unfortunate setback, the Midshipmen average 39.1 PPG, ranked 18th in the country. The defense concedes 30.4 PPG, ranked 82nd overall. 

I’ll point out though that Army is just 2-3 ATS in its last five when playing with two or more weeks of rest, while Navy is 5-2 ATS as a favorite this year and 9-4 ATS in its last 13 as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range.

With a full week off to prepare, I’m expecting Abbey to have a much better performance for the high-flying Midshipmen. Army’s inconsistent QB play comes back to haunt it today, I’m laying the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Kansas City Chiefs (8:25 EST). 

Last week the Vikes and Cowboys went down to the wire on Thursday night and all signs point to another close one this week, but for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

The short week is tough at this time of year and it’s twice as hard for the visiting side. At 10-2, Oakland is looking tie up home-field advantage through the playoffs still, but I think it’s going to finally have a letdown here in this tough atmosphere on the national stage. 

Oakland most recently beat Buffalo 38-24 on Sunday as QB Derek Carr had 260 yards and two scores. RB Latavius Muarry had 20 rushes for 82 yards and two TD’s. 

Note though that it was the team’s sixth fourth-quarter comeback of the season. 

I think Kansas City is the “hungrier” team today, it’s a game behind Oakland in the AFC West. The Chiefs come in with plenty of momentum, most recently off an OT win in Denver and a victory at Atlanta last week. 

Note that the Chiefs are hopeful that standout WR Jeremy Maclin will return this week after sitting the last four with a groin injury.

I’ll point out that Oakland is just 1-2 ATS this year versus division opponents and 0-1 ATS in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while KC is 3-1 ATS against teams with winning records this season and 2-1 ATS against the division.

A major advantage working in favor of the Chiefs tonight is the weather, as it’s expected to be -8 Celsius or less in Kansas City on Thursday. Oakland isn’t used to performing in those types of conditions. 

I’m laying the points and expecting the home side to find a way to get the job done once it’s all said and done.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PRIME-TIME PERFECT STORM is on the Indianapolis Colts (8:30 EST).

The 5-6 Indianapolis Colts are in New York to take on the 3-8 Jets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

Indianapolis looks to get back on track after a 28-7 loss on Thanksgiving to the Steelers, one which saw starting QB Andrew Luck sidelined with injury. Luck is back for this one though and he takes on a floundering Jets team which enters off a 22-17 loss at home to the Pats. 

Note that the Colts play with revenge here after losing 20-7 to New York last season. 

Last week Indy’ back up QB Scott Tolzien struggled, throwing one TD and two INT’s. But as mentioned off the top, Luck is back and he’s so far had a very good season, with 2,827 yards and a 19:8 TD/INT ratio in ten games played. 

Note that the Colts average 24.5 PPG, ranked 12th overall. The defense has been the weak point, giving up 27.4 PPG, ranked 27th overall.

Indinapolis’ defense though clearly catches a break this week in facing the Jets’ anemic unit which averages 17.8 PPG, ranked 28th. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick looked decent last week, but overall he’s been a disaster with a horrible 10:13 TD to INT ratio. Note that the defense concedes 24.2 PPG, ranked 21st. 

I’ll point out that the Colts are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams with a losing home record and 4-1 ATS in their last five following an ATS loss, while New York is interestingly just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 against teams with losing road records.

The Jets have struggled against the pass all year, conceding an average of 263 passing yards per game and I have hard time seeing that unit slowing down a refreshed Luck. New York has already been eliminated, while Indianapolis is in a dog fight for a playoff spot. I’m backing the “hungrier” side, play on the Colts.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NFL Week 13 Las Vegas Insider is on the SD Chargers at 4:25 ET.

Are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers actually getting close to turning the corner? The Bucs have won FIVE of seven games since a 1-3 start and after their 14-5 home win over the Seahawks last Sunday, they own THREE consecutive wins and find themselves just one game back of the 7-4 Falcons in the NFC South. No one ever doubted QB Jameis Winston’s talent but some questioned his character. However, he continues to silence his critics. He completed 21 of 28 passes against Seattle with two TD passes. which means he’s now stretched his streak to 27 straight games with at least one rushing or passing TD to begin his career. Both TD throws went to WR Mike Evans (eight catches for 108 yards), who ranks third in receptions (73) and second in receiving yards (1,020) on the season.

RB Doug Martin is starting to regain his health and had his best game since returning to the field last Sunday, gaining 87 yards (up from 33- and 63-yard efforts the previous two games). The defense checks in at 19th in points allowed (24.0 per) but is off its best game of the season, holding Seattle without a TD in last Sunday's 14-5 win. Seattle QB Russell Wilson battled injuries in October, going three straight games without a TD, passing or rushing, to close out the month. However, Seattle was 3-0 in November as Wilson’s return to health saw him pass for six TDs (without an interception) plus he added added a rushing and receiving score, as well. Seattle had averaged 29.3 PPG in its three-game winning streak but that all came to an end at Raymond James Stadium last Sunday. Russell was 17 of 33 for just 151 yards (0 TDs / 2 INTs), as Seattle scored only five points (a defensive safety and a FG), gaining only 245 yards while converting just 1 of 11 third-down opportunities.

The Bucs now travel cross-country to San Diego, looking to continue their outstanding road play which has seen them go 4-1 SU & ATS. However, they’ll meet a San Diego team which may be just 5-6 but owns a home win over Denver plus road wins at division leaders Atlanta and Houston. Let me also add that the Chargers 1-4 start included an OT loss at KC (blew a 27-10 4th-quarter lead), a four-point loss at Indy, a one-point loss to the Saints and a three-point loss to the Raiders. QB Philip Rivers is having another magnificent season, RB Melvin Gordon is headed for comeback player of the year honors and CB Casey Hayward leads the NFL in interceptions with six.

The Chargers ranked 9th in total yards last year (371.8 YPG) but weren’t able to translate that into points, averaging only 20.0 PPG (25th). The team has fixed that this season, as they are gaining almost the same amount of yards (37.1 per game to rank 8th) but instead of averaging just 20.0 PPG, they are scoring 28.5 PPG to rank 4th in the entire NFL! Rivers is completing 62.9% for 271.5 YPG with 23 TDs and 12 INTs. He’s topped 4,000 passing yards in SEVEN of his last eight seasons, while averaging 29.6 TD passes per year in that span. Doing the math, he’s on pace to throw for over 4,300 yards in 2016 and 33 TDs. Gordon was San Diego’s 1st-round pick last year but flopped badly, rushing for just 641 yards (on 3.5 YPC) while not scoring a single TD. He’s got 908 rushing yards this season (on pace for over 1,300) and has nine rushing TDs while adding two more TDs on 37 catches!

At 5-6, this is “last stand” time for the Chargers and this Tampa Bay team just doesn’t have the pedigree to keep winning on the road. Expect the Chargers to even their record at 6-6, earning the win “with room to spare!”

Good luck...Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Denver Broncos (1:00 EST).

The 7-4 Denver Broncos are in Jacksonville to take on the 2-9 Jaguars and despite being down to their No. 2 QB, I think this one favors the visitors.

Denver comes in off a 30-27 OT loss to Kansas City, while Jacksonville fell 28-21 to the Bills. 

The Chiefs hit a game-winning field goal as time expried in OT last week. QB Trevor Simien was great, but he was injured near the end of the game, meaning the Paxton Lynch will get the call tonight. I don’t see much of a drop off between these two, as the offense is primarily focused around the run game anyways.

Denver wins games because of its defense and special teams’ play and I’m expecting these two phases to once again play a big part in the final outcome of this one as well. Note that the Broncos average 24.2 PPG, ranked 13th overall. The defense concedes 19.9 PPG, ranked 19th overall, but note that the unit did post six sacks last week.

The Jags are a mess and come into this one having lost six straight. Last week struggling QB Blake Bortles had 126 yards and two TD’s. The run game was decent with 183 yards with one TD. The offense though averages just 19.5 PPG, ranked 26th overall. 

The defense is on par with the offense, conceding 26.6 PPG, which also ranks 26th overall.

I’ll point out that Denver is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 following a straight up loss, while Jacksonville is interestingly, just 1-4-2 ATS in its last seven after posing more than 150 rushing yards in its previous game. 

As Bortles goes, so go the Jaguars. Jacksonville relies on Bortles to move this offense, which doesn’t bode well in facing the Broncos No. 1 ranked pass defense, allowing an average of just 193 passing yars per game. 

I’m laying the points.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Kansas City Chiefs (1:00 EST).

The 8-3 Kansas City Chiefs are in Atlanta to take on the 7-4 Falcons and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. 

KC comes in off a confidence building 30-27 OT win over Denver, while Atlanta enters off a 38-19 win over Arizona. 

Last week Chiefs’ QB Alex Smith had 220 yards, one TD and no INT’s. TE Travis Kelce made eight catches for 101 yards. KC is once again in the thick of the AFC West race and averages 22.9 points per game, ranked 16th overall. 

Kansas City’s normally stout defense looked a bit shaky last week, but despite the sub-par performance, the unit still concedes an average of just 19.5 PPG.

Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan was solid once again last week, finishing 26 of 34 for 269 yards, two TD’s and an INT. WR Julio Jones had four catches for 35 yards, but the run game picked up the slack by posting three rushing major scores. 

Atlanta owns the league’s No. 1 offense, one which averages 32.5 PPG, but its defense has been a disaster, conceding 27.5 PPG, ranked 28th. 

I’ll point out that KC is 4-2 ATS on the road this year and 2-1 ATS when playing the role of underdog, while Atlanta is just 5-16 ATS in its last 21 as a favorite (including only 2-3 ATS this year). 

I think the Chiefs’ superior defense and special teams will play a significant role in the final outcome of this game and while I clearly wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, ultimately I’m going to recommend that you grab as many points as you can. Play on Kansas City.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Green Bay Packers (1:00 EST).

The 6-5 Houston Texans are in Green Bay to take on the 5-6 Packers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

Houston comes in off a listless 21-13 loss to San Diego last week, while Green Bay got off the schneid with a convincing 27-13 win in Philadelphia on Monday night.

Last week Texans’ QB Brock Osweiler struggled with 246 yards, zero TD’s and three INT’s. So far he’s thrown 12 TD’s to 13 picks. WR DeAndre Hopkins has just one 100 yard receiving game this year. Note that RB Lamar Miller had just 57 yards on 19 carries last week. 

It comes as little surprise to learn that Houston ranks in the bottom of almost every offensive category, the unit averages just 17.6 PPG, ranked 29th overall.

The defense has also regressed as the season has progressed and now concedes 21.5 PPG, ranked 13th overall. 

Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers was 30 of 39 last week for 313 yards, two TD’s and no picks. So far Rodgers has 27 TD’s to just seven picks. Davantae Adams had five grabs for 113 yards and two TD’s. The offense averages 24.9 PPG, ranked 11th overall. 

The defense concedes 26.3 PPG, ranked 25th, but looked a lot better last week in allowing just 292 total to Philadelphia.

I’ll point out that Houston is already 0-3 ATS this year as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and just 1-3 ATS on the road, while Green Bay is 3-1 ATS his season as a home fav of 3.5 to seven points.

I simply can’t see the Texans keeping pace with the Packers and their surging offense, I’m laying the points.

Good luck…Larry