My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Washington Redskins (8:30 EST).

The 3-2 Washington Redskins are in Philadelphia to take on the 5-1 Eagles on Monday night and while I obvoiusly wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the hungry visiting side to at the very least, take this one down to the wire.

The Eagles most recently beat the Panthers 28-23, while the Redskins are coming off a 26-24 home win over the 49ers last Sunday.

Note that this is a revenge game after Philadelphia scored the victory in the first meeting between the team’s this year, a 30-17 win back on September 10th.

Last week Redskins’ QB Kirk Cousins was 25 of 37 for 330 yards, two TD’s and a pick. Washington looked a little flat footed coming out of its bye week, but managed to pull off the win in the end. 

So far the Skins have been getting the job done on the ground by committee, averaging 122.8 YPG thus far. Defensively Washington looks solid as well, allowing just 316 total yards per game, including only 88 rushing.

The Eagles have been getting great play from QB Carson Wentz, who now has 1,584 yards, 13 TD’s and just three INT’s. While Philadelhpia is stout against the run (just 65.7 YPG), Cousins and company definitely catch a break today in facing the Eagles’ 29th ranked pass defense, which allows 273.5 YPG.

Additionally I’ll point out that Philadelphia is just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 against the division and only 1-3 ATS in its last four as a home favorite of 3.5 to seven points, while Washington is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 on the road and 6-4 ATS in its last ten as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. 

I think Cousins has a big day against this pathetic Eagles’ secondary. 

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Seahawks (4:25 EST).

The 3-2 Seattle Seahawks will look to take advantage of a depleted New York Giants team that could come in contented and flat-footed here after finally geting the monkey off its back in last week’s Sunday nighter.

The Hawks went into their bye week off consecutive victories over the Colts and Rams, while the Giants got off the schneid with a victory in Denver this past weekend.

Seattle has looked signficantly better after a shaky start to the season, but with an extra week to prepare for this one, I believe that Russell Wilson and company are going to have a big night. 

Wilson is a time management master and he’s going to be able to keep his offense on the field of play as long as possible today, so as to keep the Giants’ Eli Manning off of it.

The Giants needed their defense to step up big last week and it did. Manning was adequate, but I think he’s going to struggle against the Seahawks elite defensive unit. 

New York has become completely one dimensional because of some key recent injuries and this is not a favorable defensive matchup for it whatsoever.

I’ll point out as well that Seattle is interestingly 5-2 ATS in its last seven games played in the month of October, while New York is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a victory.

The Giants won last week despite only posting 266 yards of offense. That’s simply not going to get it done against this rested/focused Seahawks side.

Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NFL Week 7 Las Vegas Insider is on the Car panthers at 1;00 ET.

The Panthers hosted the Eagles in Week 6's Thursday game in a showdown of two, 4-1 teams. Carolina came up on the short end of that one, as Carson Wentz out-played Newton, throwing three TD passes without an INT. Newton attempted 52 passes and had three INTs against just one TD. The Bears come in off a 27-24 OT win last Sunday at Baltimore, as Chicago's Mitchell Trubisky, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, earned his first win as an NFL starter. Trubisky did nothing special, completing 8 of 16 passes for 113 yards but didn't throw an interception and had one TD pass. However, he also lost one of his two fumbles.

Carolina takes its 4-2 record (good enough to lead the NFC South) to Soldier Field on Sunday, with Chicago coming in at 2-4 (Packers and Vikings lead the NFC North at 4-2, while the Lions are 3-3). The Panthers are typically successful when Newton has rushing stats like in Week 6 (11 carries for 71 yards) but the problem was the rest of the team's running attack was non-existent (just nine yard on 14 attempts!). Newton was off back-to-back outstanding efforts in road wins at New England (33-30) and Detroit (27-24), where he had completed 77.4% for 671 yards with six TDs and just one INT. His effort against Philly was quite a come-down, going 28 of 52 for 239 yards with one TD, three INTs and a QB rating of 48.5.

While Newton got no help from his RBs, Trubisky saw Jimmy Howard run for 167 yards, a the Bears ran for 231 yards as a team. However, don't expect a repeat effort here, as the Panthers rank 5th in the NFL in rush D, allowing 83.3 YPG. Overall, Carolina ranks 4th in total D (280.0 YPG) and 9th in points allowed, at 20.3 PPG. Trubisky still has a lot to learn and he'll lead an offense averaging just 17.5 PPG (28th) and the Chicago D ranks 25th in points allowed (24.7 per), which won't make his job any easier.

Two recent stats favor Carolina, as the Panthers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss, while the Bears are 0-7 SU and just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a SU win. Let me also add that Carolina is 3-0 SU & ATS on the road in 2017. Newton out-played Brady in New England and coming off a loss (with some extra time to prepare off a Thursday night game in Week 6), my bet says he 'takes down' the rookie Trubisky (and the Bears), "with room to spare!'

Good luck...Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New Orleans Saints (1:00 EST).

The surging 3-2 New Orleans Saints are in Green Bay to take on the devastated 4-2 Packers this Sunday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. 

I had a play on New Orleans as my “Las Vegas Insider” last weekend it went on to annihilate Detroit 52-38.

Green Bay comes in off a crushing 23-10 loss at Minnesota last weekend, losing Pro Bowl QB Aaron Rodgers to injury in the process. 

New Orleans so far averages 29.0 PPG, ranked fourth in the league. Defensively the Saints aren’t great, ranked 21st in conceding 23.2 PPG. However, compared to last season’s dumpster fire of a defense, New Orleans looks markedly improved this year on that side of the ball (sacked Matt Stafford five times.)

QB Drew Brees was 21 of 31 for 186 yards, two TD’s and an INT last week. So far he has 1,321 yards, ten TD’s and two INT’s on the year. 

Green Bay is ranked tenth in scoring with 24.5 PPG, but with Rodgers out, that stat is meaningless now. The defense has been middle of the pack, ranked 18th in allowing 22.5 PPG. 

I’ll point out that New Orleans is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 on the road, while Green Bay is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a straight-up loss. 

Brett Hundley is not going to be able to keep pace with Brees today, who will smell the blood in the water and who will put the foot on the gas early to try and deliver the knock out blow. 

I don’t think the Green Bay defense will be up to the task of slowing down the Saints’ veteran pivot. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Cardinals (1:00 EST).

The 3-3 Arizona Cardinals are in LA to take on the 4-2 division rival Rams and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

Last weekend Cards’ RB Adrian Peterson rushed for 134 yards and two TD’s on 26 carries in Arizona’s 38-33 win over Tampa Bay. 

QB Carson Palmer looked much better and he’ll now look to take advantage of this suspect Rams’ secondary. 

The Rams stumbled out of the gate against the Jaguars last weekend, but recovered in the second half for an impressive victory of their own. 

But strictly from a trend based stand-point, there’s no question that this one heavily favors the visitors today, as Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last five after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game, while the Rams are a brutal 0-5 ATS in their last five against the NFC West.

This one has the feel of whichever team has the ball in its hands last will find a way to win this game. And in a scenario like that, I think the value swings to the underdog. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Cincinnati (4:00 EST). 

The 4-2 SMU Mustangs are in Cincinnati to take on the 2-5 Bearcats and for a number of different reasons, I believe this one favors the home side.

I simply think that Cincinnati will be by far the more “desperate” team this afternoon as it looks to break a four-game slide, most recently falling to USF.

SMU opened the year 4-1, but looks primed for another letdown here after falling at Houston two weeks ago. 

SMU is coming off its bye, so I think it’s going to be caught a little “flat footed.” 

In the loss to the Cougars, QB Ben Hicks was picked off twice. Hicks though has been solid overall with 1,672 yards, 16 TD’s and five INT’s. 

Bearcats’ QB Hayden Moore was 16 of 28 for 147 yards and an INT last week. So far Moore has 1,522 yards, ten TD’s and six INT’s. Moore suffered a minor injury and if he can’t go, then Ross Trail will get the call.

Whoever gets the call though, I absolutely believe this one favors the home side, as note that SMU is just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 after playing a conference game, while Cincinnati is 2-1 ATS in its last three as an underdog of 3.5 to ten points. 

Am I recommending to you to “sprinkle a little” on the money line? I’m not. I simply feel that the overall situation favors the hungry home side and combined with these strong trends, it does indeed make the Bearcats the correct call in this one.

Play on Cincinnati.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Indiana (3:30 EST).

The 3-3 Indiana Hoosiers are at Michigan State this weekend and for a number of different reasons I believe this one favors the visitors.

Michigan State gets caught flat footed and complacent in my opinion after winning three straight, most recently over Iowa, Michigan and Minnesota. 

Indiana has traded wins with losses of late, most recently falling to Michigan this past weekend.

The Hoosiers got blown out by both Ohio State and Penn State, but looked a lot better in last week’s 27-20 OT loss to Michigan. Now 0-3 in Big Ten play, clearly Indiana is going to be desperate to get off the conference schneid. 

In their 30-27 win over the Golden Gophers last weekend, Spartans’ RB LJ Scott returned and posted a career-high 194 yards and two TD’s. Previous to that monster game though, Scott was averaging a career-low 3.7 YPG this year. 

I’ll point out as well that Indiana has in fact excelled in this spot for bettors, going 7-5 ATS in its last 12 on the road overall and 3-1 ATS in its last four after playing a conference game, while Michigan State is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 after two or more consecutive SU wins.

These teams played last year and Michigan State won 24-21 in OT. The Hoosiers are out for revenge and while I wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can.

Play on Indiana.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* SItuational Stunner is on Miami Florida (3:30 EST).

The 4-3 Syracuse Orange are at 5-0 Miami Florida this weekend and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

The Orange are primed for a classic letdown here after their massive 27-24 upset victory over Clemson last Saturday.

The Hurricanes though won’t be taking anything for granted after nudging by Georgia Tech 25-24 last weekend.

Syracuse QB Eric Dungey so far has 2,080 yards and a 12/4 TD/INT ratio. The Orange defense caught a big break last weekend though, as Tigers’ starting QB Kelly Bryant left just before the half with a concussion. 

Hurricanes’ QB Malik Rosier had 297 yards, one TD and no picks last week. Rosier has 1,371 yards and a 12/3 TD/INT. RB Travis Homer had 170 yards last week. 

Miami’s defense also looked sharp, holding Georgia Tech to just 281 total yards and limiting the Yellow Jackets to just 4 of 13 on third downs. The Hurricane’s pass defense was especially tight, which doesn’t bode well for Dungey this weekend either in my opinion.

Additionally I’ll point out that Syracuse is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after two or more consecutive SU wins, while Miami is 7-5 ATS in its last 12 after two or more consecutive SU victories.

For all the reasons listed above, lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Troy (2:00 EST).

The 4-2 Troy Trojans are just 1-5 ATS, while Georgia State is 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS. Troy looks to get back on track here after its three game win streak came to an end in a 19-8 setback to South Alabama last Wednesday. Georgia State looks poised for a letdown here in my opinion after its third straight win in a 47-37 victory over Louisiana Monroe.

So far the Trojans are ranked 110th in scoring offense by averaging 21.3 PPG, making up for it on the defensive side of the ball in conceding just 18.7 PPG. QB Brandon Silvers has 1,504 yards with two TD’s and three INT’s, plus three more rushing scores. RB Jamarius Henderson has 216 yards and three TD’s. 

The Panthers are tied for 78th in the country in scoring offense with an average of 28 PPG, while ranked 69th in scoring defense in conceding 26.2. 

Georgia State QB Conner Manning has 1,261 yards, six TD’s and four INT’s. RB Taz Bateman has 176 yards on 53 carries. 

I’ll point out though that Troy is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games against a team with a winning home record, while Georgia State is just 6-14-1 ATS in its last 21 home games.

I think Troy’s defense proves to be too much for the Panthers to overcome. The Trojans lead the league in several defensive categories and all signs point to a bounce back this weekend. 

Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Old Dominion (6:00 EST).

The 4-2 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers get ready to face off against the 2-4 ODU Monarchs on Friday night and while I’ll stop short in calling for an outright upset, I do think that the determined home side will keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

WKU comes in off a 45-14 win over Charlotte at home, while Old Dominion enters off a 35-3 loss at Marshall.

Note that this is a revenge game for the Monarchs after they fell at WKU 59-24 last season.

So far Western Kentucky averages 25.5 PPG, while allowing just 18.2 PPG (ranked 19th). Last week the Hilltoppers posted 627 yards of offense as Mike White would go 33 of 47 for 398 yards passing and five TD’s. Note though that the 49ers did post 248 rushing yards against them.

The Monarchs average 17.0 PPG and allow 34.7. Clearly they are overmatched on both sides of the ball, however I think this is a great situation for the home side (also note that the defense looked much better last week, allowing just 371 yards in the game. )

WKU has hit a “vanilla” part of its schedule with FAU at home next week, so it’s not too hard to imagine the Hilltoppers coming in a bit complacent here on the heels of three straight “rocking chair” victories.

Additionally I’ll point out that WKU is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 on the road (including 0-2 ATS already this year), while ODU is 9-6 ATS in its last 15 following a conference contest.

As mentioned off the top, I’m not calling for an outright upset, but the conditions would appear right for a competitive affair. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Houston (8:00 EST).

The 5-1 Memphis Tigers are in Houston to take on the 4-2 Cougars and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

The Tigers come in off a 30-27 home win over Navy last weekend, while the Cougars will be out to atone for a listless 45-17 road loss to Tulsa.

Note that this is also a “revenge” scenario for Houston after it fell 48-44 at home to Memphis last year. 

Last week the Tigers forced five turnovers in their victory over the Midshipmen and gave up just 334 yards overall. QB Riley Ferguson was 24 of 40 for 279 yards and three TD’s. So far the offense has scored over 30 points in all but one game this year.

Houston gave up 416 yards last weekend and allowed the Golden Hurricane to convert on 9 of 17 first downs. However, despite last week’s result, the Cougars have been solid defensively this year. 

Last week QB Kyle Postma had his worst game of the season, posting 258 passing yards with no TD’s and two INT’s. So far he has 805 passing yards and a poor 4/5 TD/INT ratio. The run game looked good for the Cougars though, accumulating 146 yards, led by Duke Catalon with 72 on the day. 

From a trend based stand point, this one definitely favors the home side: I’ll point out that Memphis is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after allowing 27 points or more in its previous contest, while Houston is 4-2 ATS in ts last six after allowing 44 points or more in its previous game.

I think Memphis stumbles on the road here against this determined Houston side, looking to atone for a weak effort last week and out for revenge from a close loss a year ago.

Play on Houston.

Good luck…Larry

This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the Indianapolis Colts (8:30 EST).

The 2-3 Colts are in Tennessee to take on the 2-3 Titans and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

Indianapolis comes in off a confidence building 26-23 OT win over San Francisco, while Tennessee looked horrible in its 16-10 road loss in Miami last weekend.

If recent history is any precedence, then the Colts have to be liking their chances today, as they’ve won 11 straight in the series, including a a 24-17 home victory in the most recent matchup.

Of course, most/all of those games in that win streak were started by either Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck. Regardless, I absoultely believe that the visitors have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one.

So far the Colts average 19.4 PPG and allow 32.8 The team looked better last week though, winning the yardage battle 447-402 and had a sizeable advantage in time of possession, going 37:17 to 31:05. 

Indaianpolis QB Jacoby Brissett so far has 997 yards, two TD’s and three INT’s. Brissett though is learning on the fly and has definitely looked stronger with each outing. Frank Gore leads the ground game with 239 yards and two major scores thus far.

Tennessee averages 22 PPG and allows 28.4. Last week the Titans gave up six sacks, while also committing 11 penalties. 

Tennessee QB Marcus Mariota has 792 yards, three TD’s and three INT’s thus far, while also posting 116 yards rushing and three more scores on the ground. He missed the Miami game, but is expected to start here. If he does play, clearly he’s not going to be at 100% capacity.

And if he doesn’t play, then Matt Cassel will get the call, so far he has 162 yards, a TD and two INT’s this season. RB DeMarco Murray has 273 yards and one TD.

I’ll point out though that Indianapolis is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, while Tennessee is 0-4 ATS in its last four as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range.

Mariota’s health? It’s definitely a big question mark for this one. I think Brissett can keep his team competitive, so grab up those points!

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Browns (1:00 EST).

The 0-5 Cleveland Browns never expected to make the playoffs this season, but they also weren’t expecting things to be quite this bad. 

While the Browns are now already “looking ahead” until next year, I still think they offer plenty of value in this spot.

Cleveland is most recently coming off a hard-fought setback at home to the Jets, while Houston was smashed by the Cheifs in the Sunday nighter, losing star defensive player JJ Watt for the season again to injury in the process.

The Browns once again turn to rookie QB DeShone Kizer, who has three TD’s and nine INT’s thus far. QB Kevin Hogan could see time though as well and so far he has 377 yards, three TD’s and two INT’s on the season. 

The good thing though is that Cleveland faces another rookie QB in DeShaun Watson this weekend, Clearly Watson is further along with his progression than Kizer at the moment, but it’s not like he’s going up against an Aaron Rodgers or anything this afternoon.

It’s interesting to note as well that the Browns are 2-1 ATS in their last three against the AFC South, while Houston is already just 1-2 ATS in front of the home town crowd this year.

After the humbling loss to Kansas City, not only does this set up as a letdown spot for the home side, but with its bye coming next week, it also sets up as a look ahead spot. 

While I’m not calling for the outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Browns.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New England Patriots (1:00 EST).

Both division rivals sit at 3-2 to open the season, but for a number of different reaosns I think this one favors the visiting side.

After falling at home 33-30 to Carolina, the Pats bounced back with a solid 19-14 road win over the Buccaneers last Sunday. 

Pats’ QB Tom Brady was 30 of 40 for 303 yards, one TD and one INT last week. New England also posted 113 yards on the ground. 

New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is not taking the Jets’ defense lightly: “They’re a really hard-nosed, tough, physical team,” McDaniels assessed. “They know us very well. We know them. They’ve got a physical front. They’ve got a very talented front. They’ve got speed at linebacker. They’ve got length on the edge. They’ve got some really, really talented inside players with (defensive linemen Leonard) Williams, (Muhammad) Wilkerson, (and Steve) McLendon. Those guys are tough to block and do a really good job for them inside. And they’ve got some new guys in the secondary that this will be our first opportunity to play against them and get to know them this week with (safeties Marcus) May and (Jamal) Adams. (Cornerback Morris) Claiborne we’ve played against before, but not as a Jet. So this is a new group; a physical bunch.”

The Jets offense took a hit when RB Bilal Powell strained a calf this weekend, making him day-to-day. Starting RB Matt Forte is already out with turf toe. If either manages to suit up for this one, clearly they’re not going to be at 100% capacity.

I’ll also point out that the Patriots have in fact excelled in this spot for bettors over the years, going 7-1 ATS in their last eight against teams with winning records (they’re also 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games overall.)

Additionally note that the Jets are interestingly just 1-5 ATS in their last six after allowing 250 or more passing yards in their previous game. 

Brandin Cooks already has 18 catchs for 379 yards and two TD’s for New England this year and Brady has shown no signs of slowing down.

After a couple of mediocre performances in a row, I look for this high-powered New England offense to finally get untracked. Lay the points with confidence.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NFL Week 6 Las Vegas Insider is on the NO Saints at 1:00 ET.

The Lions opened the 2017 season with a 35-23 home win over the Cardinals and followed with a 24-10 MNF win at the NY Giants in Week 2. However, neither of those wins look very impressive now and Detroit will head to New Orleans having lost two of its last three, needing a win to not fall back to .500 at 3-3. Meanwhile, the Saints opened the 2017 season with double-digit losses at Minnesota (29-19) and home to New England (36-20) but then shocked the Panthers 34-13 in Carolina in Week 3 before shutting out the Dolphins 2-0 in London during Week 4. New Orleans was one of four teams with a Week 5 bye and now welcomes the Lions to the Superdome, a team which has beaten them in each of the last three seasons, 24-23 in Detroit in 2014, then 35-27 and 28-13 the last two years here in New Orleans.

The Lions hosted the Panthers last Sunday, entering that game surviving by being extremely opportunistic on both sides of the ball, Detroit was averaging 24.8 PPG but just 299.8 YPG in total offense plus was allowing just 17.5 PPG (4th-best), despite ranking 15th in total defense. The team's plus-9 turnover margin had played a huge role in the team reaching 3-1. However, the Lions could not force a single TO against the Panthers, as Cam Newton ripped Detroit's pass D for 355 yards and three TDs. The Lions gained only 192 yards of offense on their own, going 5 of 13 on third down tries (0-1 on 4th-down). QB Stafford is completing 64.6% with nine TDs and just one INT but the Lions rank just 23rd in passing (200.6 YPG). RB Ameer Abdullah had a career-high 94 yards in the Week 4 win at Minnesota but is averaging just 48.5 YPG on the ground in Detroit's other four games, as the team ranks 26th in rushing on the season at 87.6 YPG. 

If the Lions think that they can win by forcing Brees into mistakes, they had better think again. New Orleans' age-less QB hasn't thrown an interception in 152 attempts this season, while passing for eight TDs (108.3 QB rating) and leading the Saints to average 276.5 YPG through the air (ranks 4th). In fact, the Saints have yet to commit a single TO through four games, only the third NFL team since 1935 to open the season in such a manner! As for the New Orleans' D, talk about turnarounds! The Saints allowed a league-worst 777 passing yards and tied for the league lead with six TD passes allowed in opening 0-2. However, they then hen they flipped the switch, becoming the only NFL team that didn’t allow a TD pass in Weeks 3 or 4. That Week 3 game came against Cam Newton and the Panthers and while Newton shredded the Lions last Sunday in Detroit  for 355 yards and three TDs, the Saints held him to 167 yards with no TD passes and three INTs on his home field (QB rating of 43.8)!

In Weeks 1 & 2 the Saints allowed 11 passing plays of 24-plus yards and 23 passing plays of 15-plus yards but in Weeks 3 & 4, they allowed one passing play of 24-plus yards and six of 15-plus yards. The Lions are overrated and while I'm not completely sold on the Saints as of yet, they have the advantage of an extra week of rest coming into this one off that London game. Lay the points!

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST).

The Falcons are rested, coming off their bye week and I look for them to put the foot on the gas from start to finish and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover.

Atlanta will be especially motivated here as well after falling to the Bills in their last outing.

Conversely, Miami comes in contented after its two-game slide ended with a win over the Titans.

Despite that 16-10 victory though, the Fish have scored a grand total of 41 points through the first four games and QB Jay Cutler has for the most part struggled. 

Note that the Miami offense was shutout by the Saints earlier in the year.

The bye couldn’t have come at a better time for the Falcons though: “It’s a perfect time for us to reset,” head coach Dan Quinn noted. “For whatever reason, the bye hit us at the right time based on some injuries. It was great to have those guys back.” (Julio Jones, OT Ryan Schraeder, LB Vic Beasley and safety Ricardo Allen.)

I’ll point out as well that the Dolphins are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 against clubs with winning records, while the Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five following their bye-week.

Cutler is averaging less than 200 passing yards per game, which clearly doesn’t bode well in this hostile environment.

With a week to re-focus and plan for this one, all signs point to an epic lop-sided destruction. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on USC (8:00 EST).

The 4-1 Utah Utes are in USC to take on the 5-1 Trojans and suffice it to say, I’m expecting the home side to pull away for the comfortable ATS cover as the game comes down the stretch.

The Utes look primed for a letdown here in my opinion after falling 23-20 at home to Stanford last Saturday. 

Conversely, USC looks poised to build off its 38-10 victory over Oregon State last weekend. 

Note that this is also a revenge game for the No. 13 Trojans after they fell 31-27 in Utah last season.

Utah hurt itself last week with a pair of costly turnovers. So far the Utes average 32 PPG, while conceding 18.4 QB Tyler Huntley has 966 yards, six TD’s and two INT’s, while also rushing for 208 and three more scores on the ground. Zack Moss leads the way on the ground with 344 yards, plus three TD’s. 

The Trojans are ranked 35th in the country in averaging 35.5 PPG, while ranked 45th in scoring defense by conceding 23.2.

QB Sam Darnold already has 1,705 passing yards with 12 TD’s and nine INT’s. RB Ronald Jones III has 529 yards and seven TD’s. WR Deontay Burnett has 527 yards receving and six TD’s. 

I’ll point out that Utah is just 1-3 ATS in its last four off a loss against a conference rival, while USC is 4-0 ATS in its last four after allowing 20 points or less in its previous outing. 

Huntley is a question mark for Utah coming into this one and if he does play, clearly he won’t be at 100% capacity. Too many things working against the Utes this weekend. I’m laying the points.

Good luck…Larry

This is a 10* GAME OF MONTH on North Carolina (3:30 EST).

While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the 1-5 Tar Heels to risk life and limb in front of the home town crowd as they try to secure another victory.

Conversely, I think the 4-1 Virginia Cavaliers are primed for a letdown here after they pulled away for a 28-21 win over Duke last weekend.

The Cavs have already doubled their win total from last year, so have to be feeling very content at this point. Jordan Ellis leads the team with 408 rushing yards and five TD’s.

The Virginia defense looked sharp, giving up 124 passing yards, while also grabbing two INT’s in last week’s victory. 

QB Kurt Benkert din’t look overly impressive though, he had 182 passing yards, three TD’s and two INT’s. 

UNC QB Chazz Surratt has 1,167 passing yards and six TD’s so far this season. 

Surratt had 179 passing yards in last week’s 33-10 loss to Notre Dame. The Tar Heels struggled against the Irish run game and will need to immediately re-group in facing Ellis and company.

Virginia plays UNC (1-5) this week, followed by Boston College (2-4) and Pittsburgh (2-4). After the extended winning stretch, the Cavs now hit a very “vanilla” part of their schedule. In my opinion, it’s a perfect storm of factors leading to complacency.

Additionally I’ll point out that Virginia is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a favorite, while UNC is interestingly 6-3 ATS in its last nine games played in the month of October. 

I think Surratt keeps his team in this one late. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* ATS UPSET SPECIAL is on Indiana (12:00 EST).

While I wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset obviously, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the under-rated home side to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire.

The Wolverines are 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS, while Indiana is 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS. 

I think Michigan is primed for a letdown here, still hungover after its 14-10 loss in the Big House to rival Michigan State. It was the first loss of the year for the Wolverines and it was a devastating one in my opinion. 

Indiana crushed Charleston Southern 27-0 in non-conference action last wekeend and will look to carry that confidence building momentum over into this one.

Note that this is a revenge game for the home side as well after it fell 20-10 in Michigan last year.

So far Michigan is ranked 82nd in scoring with 27.2 PPG, while ranked seventh on the defensive side in conceding 13.6. 

Wolverines’ QB Wilton Speight has 581 yards, three TD’s and two INT’s on the year. He’s out for the year though with injury. John O’Korn has 505 yards, one TD and four INT’s in relief. RB Ty Isaac has 365 yards and a TD. 

So far Indiana is ranked 69th in scoring offense with an average of 29.6 PPG, while ranked 59th in scoring defense in conceding 25.6. QB Peyton Ramsey has 637 yards passing with six scores and two INT’s, along with another 171 yards and two TD’s on the ground. Morgan Ellison leads the rush attack with 358 yards and two TD’s. 

I’ll point out though that Michigan is just 1-3 ATS in its last four off a loss against a conference rival, while Indiana is 8-6 ATS in its last 14 against teams with winning records.

I think the conditions are right for a highly competitive affair. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Florida State (12:00 EST).

The desperate 1-3 Florida State Seminoles are gunning for a bowl bid at this point of the season, but they’ll need to start stringing together some wins immediately.

The Blue Devils are 4-2 and just finished losing to Virginia 28-21 last Saturday. That same day Florida State fell 24-20 at home to Miami-Florida. 

Seminoles’ QB James Blackman was 17 of 28 passing for 203 yards, two TD’s and two iNT’s. Blackman has been decent since being thrust into the spotlight after starter Deondre Francois went down with injury in Week 1. RB Cam Akers continues to be a bright spot as well, last week he went for 121 yards on 20 carries. 

The FSU defense looked pretty good against a tough Hurricanes offense, holding them to 337 total yards, including only to 83 on the ground. 

Duke QB Daniel Jones was 14 of 42 for 124 yards, one TD and two INT’s last week. The run game stalled as well, managing just 131 rushing yards (compared to the 204 YPG average it normally posts.) 

The Blue Devils looked decent defensively, allowing 310 yards. Duke has now dropped two straight though after starting the year 4-0.

Note that FSU is 4-2 ATS in its last six off a loss against a conference rival, while Duke is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 in the same position. 

I think Blackman is on the cusp of his first truly big game. The Duke defense has looked great, but so too has the Seminoles. I think the combination of Blackman and Akers will prove to be just too much for the Blue Devils this afternoon. 

Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK is on California (10:30 EST).

The Washington State Cougars are 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS, while the Cal Golden Bears are 3-3 SU/ATS. 

Cal is going to be hungry after losing its third straight, while conversely, the Cougars look primed for a letdown here after winning six straight, most recently a 33-10 victory over Oregon. 

Note that this is a “revenge” game for the Golden Bears after they fell 56-21 at Washington State last year. 

So far Washington State is ranked 18th in scoring offense with 39.7 PPG, while ranked 23rd in scoring defense in conceding just 18.5. QB Luke Falk already has 2,000 yards passing with 19 TD’s and only two INT’s. 

Cal is ranked 100th in the nation in scoring with 24.3 PPG, while ranked 89th in scoring defense in conceding 29.8. QB Ross Bowers has 1,437 yards, nine TD’s and eight INT’s. RB Patrick Laird has 400 yards and four major scores on the ground. 

I’ll point out that though that Washington State is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a road favorite, while Cal is 2-0 ATS in its last two as a home dog in the 14.5 to 17 points range. 

The Cougs have bigger plans than just being “bowl eligible,” but Washington State has now already punched its ticke to a postseason matchup. 

Cal on the other hand is going to have to earn a couple more conference victories if it has any shot at a bowl invite itself.

While I’m not calling for an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on California.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Carolina Panthers (8:25 EST).

The short week almost always favors the home side and I believe that’s going to be the case here.

The Eagles are 4-1 SU/ATS, while the Panthers are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS. 

Philadelphia cruised to a 34-7 win over the Cardinals last weekend, while Carolina won 27-24 in Detroit for a second straight road victory. 

The Eagles are flying high, but let’s not get too carried away as their level of competition has been very low, beating the Giants 27-24 and the Chargers 26-24. Clearly the Cardinals have major issues as well. 

In my opinion Philadelphia has yet to be tested this year, something which is about to change this weekend. 

Eagles’ QB Carson Wentz was 21 of 30 for 304 yards and four TD’s last week, while RB LeGarrette Blount had 74 yards on 14 carries. 

Philadelphia is averaging 397.8 YPG and conceding 346. Carolina is averaging 327.2 YPG and conceding 274 (ranked third.) 

Panthers’ QB Cam Netwon had 355 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s last week. RB Christian McCaffrey caught a TD pass in that one.

Philadelphia though has struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 3-7 ATS in its last ten on the road, while Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a home favorite of three points or less.

As mentioned off the top, this is going to be the best defense that Wentz has seen all season and ultimately I think the opportunistic home side unit will prove to be be the difference maker in this contest. 

I’m laying the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Texas State (7:30 EST).

Texas State is 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS so far this season, while UL Lafayette is 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS. 

The Bobcats enter off a 45-27 home loss to Louisiana Monroe, while UL Lafayette looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion after its 21-16 road win over Idaho in its last outing. 

Note that this is a revenge game for Texas State after it fell 27-3 at home to the Ragin Cajuns last year. 

Bobcats’ QB Damian WIlliams was 13 of 24 for 158 yards, one TD and no picks last week. 

The Texas State ground game looked dominant in the loss, posting 181 yards with Anthony D Taylor leading the way with 102 rushing. The defense looked bad, but the unit catches a break this week in facing UL Lafayette.

The Ragin Cajuns’ Andre Nunez was 18 of 24 for 213 yards, one TD and one INT last week. WR Ja’Marcus Bradley had five catches for 93 yards. 

UL Lafayette looked great defensively, but previous to that had struggled. I’m going to be cautious in reading too much into one decent outing.

I’ll point out as well that Texas State is 3-1 ATS in its last four after three or more consecutive SU losses, while UL Lafayette is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after holding an opponent to 17 points or less in its previous contest.

I think the Bobcats are the more desperate team as they look to get off the schneid in conference play. Play on Texas State.

Good luck…Larry

This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on South Alabama (8:00 EST).

Am I suggesting to you to “sprinkle” a little on the money line? Of course not.

I do however think this is a few too many points to be giving up to this hungry 1-4 South Alabama Jaguars team.

Conversely, it’s not too hard to imagine the surging 4-1 Troy Trojans “looking past” their lowly opponent tonight.

There’s no question that this sets up as a classic “trap” for the home side after its epic 24-21 road win over LSU on September 30th. 

South Alabama also played on September 30th and fell 34-16 to Louisiana Tech. 

Note that this is a revenge game for the Jaguars after they fell to the Trojans 28-21 at home last year. 

USA struggled defensively last week, although it did hold Louisiana Tech to just 2 of 11 on third down. 

QB Cole Garvin was 21 of 45 for one TD and two INT’s, while RB Xavier Johnson had 89 yards on 12 carries. USA ranks near the bottom on both sides of the ball, but as mentioned off the top, I think it catches a break here facing a Troy team coming off a historic program victory.

The Trojans gave up 428 yards on defense, but created four turnovers over LSU. QB Brandon Silvers had just 157 yards passing. On the year Troy is allowing 231 yards per game through the air.

I’ll point out as well that Troy is 0-5 ATS in its last five following its bye, while USA is 2-1 ATS in its last three after two or more consecutive ATS losses.

These teams have historically played each other tough and all signs point to another competitive affair. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Chicago Bears (8:30 EST).

The Vikings are 2-2 SU/ATS while the Bears are 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS.

Minnesota comes in off a listless 14-7 loss at home to Detroit. Starting QB Sam Bradford is listed as day-to-day with a knee injury. If Bradford does suit up for this one, clearly he’s not going to be at 100% capacity. 

The Vikes also lost rookie RB Dalvin Cook to a torn ACL last week when he fumbled the ball, a costly turnover which led to a Lions’ TD. 

Once Cook went down, the offense stalled and suffice it to say, I think that’s going to be the case again on Monday night. 

Minnesota’s backup QB Case Keenum was 16 of 30 for 210 yards.

Chicago enters off a 35-14 loss at Green Bay with QB Mike Glennon under center in that one. Glennon is out for this one though, as the Bears turn to rookie Mitch Trubisky. 

Trubisky showed a lot of promise in the preseason and he’ll have a big opportunity here facing this less than 100% Vikings squad. The Bears’ pass defense was a bright spot in last week’s loss, holding Aaron Rodgers to just 179 passing yards (although he did throw four TD’s.)

Trubisky will be leaning heavily on RB Jordan Howard, who has 302 yards and four TD’s. 

Chicago’s defense is going to be a big difference maker in my opinion though, as it allows 220.8 YPG through the air and just 85.5 YPG on the ground. 

And that’s bad news for Minnesota’s offense in my opinion, as right now the unit is a disaster. Trubisky is a rookie, but Vikes’ coach Mike Zimmer doesn’t have a lot of game tape on the kid yet. I think the door is wide open for an outright upset. That said, I’ll grab the points in the end.

Good luck….Larry

My 8* NFL Week 5 Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Giants at 1:00 ET.

Four weeks into the 2017 season, four teams remain win-less. The list includes the Browns, Chargers, Giants and Niners. Two of those teams, the now-LA Chargers and the NY Giants, will go head-to-head at MetLife Stadium in Week 5 with one team (barring a tie), getting off the schnied. The Chargers' schnied is quite a bit 'bigger' than the Giants', as while New York made the postseason in 2016 (lost badly at Green Bay in the wild card round), the Chargers are coming off a season in which the team was 5-11 and lost its final five games. That means the Chargers enter this game on a nine-game losing streak, with an 0-8-1 ATS record, as well (Opening Week push at the Broncos in 2017 is LA's lone non-loss ATS in that stretch).

The Chargers narrowly lost to the Eagles 26-24 last Sunday, the team's third straight home contest. QB Philip Rivers threw for 347 yards and two TDs (covering 22 and 38 yards) on 22 of 38 passing. The Chargers had a pair of 100-yard receivers, as Keenan Allen (24 catches on the season) caught five balls for 138 yards, while Tyrell Williams caught five passes for 115 yards. RB Melvin Gordon struggled once again (10 carries for just 22 yards) and has only 168 yards (3.1 YPC) after four games. LA is averaging only 67.5 YPG (3.6 YPC), which ranks 29th among the NFL's 32 teams. LA's offense wasn't the problem in Week 4, as the defense allowed 454 yards of total offense, while being dominated in the time of TOP battle, allowing Philly to hold onto the ball for just over 39 of the game's 60 minutes.

The Giants also lost a close one in Week 4, 25-23 at Tampa Bay, when the Buccaneers kicked a game-winning 34-yard FG on the contest's final play. Eli Manning completed 30 of 49 pass for 288 yards and two TDs (no INTs) plus added a 14-yard TD run. Wayne Gallman led the team with 42 rushing yards on 11 carries but on the season, the Giants have run the ball worse than the Chargers, averaging only 59.3 YPG (3.2 YPC) to rank 31st. The Giants D allowed only 17.8 PPG in 2016, tops in the NFC and second-best in the entire NFL to New England. However, the Giants allowed the Bucs 434 yards of total offense, despite the Giants offense holding onto the ball for over 34 minutes. New York checks in allowing 23.8 PPG through four games, which is SIX points higher than last season's average.

The Chargers actually may get get more crowd support at MetLife than they do in their own StubHub Center, as it's quickly become obvious that the LA fans have shown little or no interest in welcoming the team from San Diego. As for New York fans, the team's 0-4 start has made “Fire Ben McAdoo” a popular search topic on Google. Both teams have significant issues but "someone has to win!" My bet says it's the Giants, as Eli has a plethora of receiving options in WRs like OBJ, Shepard and Marshall plus rookie TE Engram. New York also just may be able to get a running game going against a Chargers rush D which is allowing 163.5 YPPG (31st) on 4.8 YPC. The Giants WON'T be making the postseason in 2017 but after an 0-4 start, ENOUGH is ENOUGH!

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cincinnati Bengals (1:00 EST).

The Bills are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS, while the Bengals are 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS. Clearly not many would have predicted that this would be the case for these teams at this point of the season.

Buffalo looks primed for a letdown here though after its big 23-17 road win against the Falcons. It’s hard to win on the road. It’s even harder to win back-tp-back road games, let alone cover both as well.

The Bills have come a long way no doubt, but they now face a super hungry Bengals team which comes in off its first win of the year after downing the Browns 31-17 last weekend.

Note that Cincinnati plays with revenge here as well after Buffalo won 16-12 on the road last season. 

Buffalo took advantage of an injured Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu last week. QB Tyrod Taylor was an unimpressive 12 of 20 for 182 yards, a TD.

The Bills have looked good, not great in my opinion. 

The Bengals have obviously looked pretty bad, but they sure looked a lot better in last week’s victory over Cleveland. 

QB Andy Dalton was 25 of 30 for 286 yards, four TD’s and zero INT’s. After a slow start, Dalton now has six TD’s over his last two games. WR AJ Green had five catches for 63 yards and a TD. 

The Bengals’ have looked much better defensively as well after a slower start to the season, last week allowing only 215 total yards, including just 45 rushing. 

A great situational play in my opinion. Buffalo gets caught “looking ahead” to its bye-week, while the desperate home side puts the foot on the gas from start to finish. Play on the Bengals.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Indianapolis Colts (1:00 EST).

The 49ers are 0-4 SU and 3-1 ATS, while the Colts are just 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS.

San Fran looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion after its deflating 18-15 OT road loss to Arizona last week. 

After beating Cleveland at home, the Colts fell 46-18 in Seattle last weekend. 

So far the 49ers are ranked 26th in the league in scoring at 16.5 PPG, while ranked 24th in the league on the defensive side in conceding 23.5. QB Brian Hoyer was 24 of 49 for 234 yards and an INT last week. The defense looked decent, limiting the Cardinals to just 51 yards on the ground.

Indianapolis is ranked 25th in scoring with 17.8 PPG, while ranked 32nd in the league on the defensive side in conceding 34.0 PPG.

Colts’ QB Jacoby Brissett was 16 of 29 for 157 yards, a TD and an INT last week. 

Indianapolis actually led the game 15-10 at the break, before then falling apart in the second half. 

A couple of really lousy teams going head-to-head in this one, but I don’t think that the home field advantage factor can be overlooked in this particular matchup.

I’ll also point out that San Francisco is just 6-13 ATS in its last 19 against teams with losing records, while Indianapolis is 26-8 ATS in its last 24 in the same position.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Colts.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Carolina Panthers (1:00 EST).

While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the surging visiting side to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire.

Carolina beat the Pats on the road 33-30 last weekend, while Detroit comes in off a listless 14-7 win over the Vikings. 

Panthers’ QB Cam Newton had three TD passes and also ran another one in on the ground. The defense looked a little suspect, but look at who the opponent was. The unit bent, but it did not break:

“It can be a catalyst, a stepping-stone,” Panthers’ Coach Ron Rivera assessed afterwards. “It kind of felt a little bit like what happened a couple of years ago when we went to Seattle. They were the watermark for us, as far as the NFC was concerned. So we were able to have success there, and from that point we had success.”

Detroit was trailing 7-3 at half time last week, before coming back in the second half for the victory. So far the Lions have looked good, not great in my opinion.

Additionally I’ll point out that Carolina is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 15 after allowing 250 or more passing yards in its previous contest, while Detroit is just 2-8 ATS in its last ten after allowing 15 points or less in its previous outing. 

I like Newton to build off his last performance and give the Lions’ defense everything it can handle. Play on Carolina.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PAC-12 GAME OF THE YEAR is on California (10:45 EST).

Am I suggesting to you to “sprinkle” a little on the money line?

Of course not. But with three “cream puffs” on deck, including tonight’s game against Cal, then up next against Arizona State and UCLA respectively, I absolutely believe that the 5-0 Huskies are going to come in a little content and “flat footed” in this one. 

The Huskies really get into the meat of their schedule after that with games at home against Oregon, and then at Stanford, followed by Utah and Washington State.

Not surprisingly, this is a revenge game for the Bears after they were smoked 66-27 by Washington last year. 

So far Cal averages 27.8 PPG and concedes 28.2. QB Ross Bowers has 1,357 yards, nine TD’s and eight picks on the year. Last week against the Ducks he had 255 yards, three TD’s and zero INT’s and suffice it to say, I think he’s going to carry over that momentum here. 

Washington averages 44.0 PPG, which is ranked tenth. So far it’s allowed just 10.8 PPG, which is ranked fifth overall. 

QB Jake Browning had 293 passing yards, three TD’s and an INT last week, while Myles Gaskin had 115 yards on the ground and another major score. 

I’ll point out though that Cal is 5-1 ATS in its last six as an underdog, while Washington is just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 after two or more consecutive SU wins and interestingly just 3-4 ATS in its last seven games played in the month of October. 

The schedule isn’t in the Bears favor to get a bowl invite this season and while an outright win is almost assuredly out of the question in this particular matchup, I believe that the situation is greatly in their favor and combined with the strong trends listed above, I will indeed grab up all these points in the end!

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on Stanford (10:15 EST).

Stanford is 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS, while Utah is 4-0 SU/ATS. 

The Cardinal won their second straight conference game, most recently getting the better of Arizona State 34-24 at home on Saturday. The Utes enter off a 30-24 road win over Arizona last week.

Utah has won three straight in the series, although they last played in 2014. 

Last week Stanford held a 501-409 advantage in total offense, but lost the first down battle 22-17. The Cardinal though forced two turnovers. 

So far Stanford is ranked 24th in the nation in scoring with 39 PPG, while tied for 62nd in scoring defense in allowing just 25.4. QB Keller Chryst has 509 passing yards on the season, four TD’s and two INT’s, while KJ Costello has 376 yards passing, three TD’s and also 40 rushing yards and two more TD’s on the ground. 

The Utes won last week despite getting outgained 448-341. Utah though forced five turnovers, which wound up being the difference maker in the end. 

So far Utah is ranked 38th in scoring offense with 35 PPG, while ranked 17th in conceding 17.3. 

QB Tyler Huntley is 88 of 120 passing for 966 yards, six TD’s and two INT’s on the year. RB Zack Moss has 265 yards and two major scores.

I’ll point out though that Stanford is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 after two or more consecutive SU wins and 9-7 ATS in its last 16 off a win against a conference rival, while Utah is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 off a win against a conference foe.

I think the Stanford offense will prove to be the difference here. 

Good luck…Larry

My 8* BLOWOUT is on Michigan State (7:30 EST).

Michigan has looked pretty good so far in going 4-0 SU (2-2 ATS.) In the Wolverines latest outing they got the better of Purdue 28-10 back on September 23rd. 

The Spartans enter off a 17-10 win over Iowa to open conference play. When these teams played last year, it was Michigan that pulled away for the 32-23 road win.

It’s back-to-back gruelling affairs for the 3-1 Spartans, with a game next week at 3-1 Minnesota. Essentially, this two week stretch will determine whether or note MSU will contend for the conference crown or not and while clearly the odds are stacked against it, I think it’s safe to say that we’re going to see its best effort this weekend.

MSU jumped out to a 14-0 lead last week and went on to win by three points. QB Brian Lewerke threw two TD passes to Felton Davis III in the first quarter. The Hawkeyes though held the Spartans to just 88 yards on 40 carries. 

Defensively MSU looked sharp though, holding Iowa to just 226 yards of total offense, including 19 rushing yards. So far the Michigan State offense is averaging 429.5 YPG, while the defense is conceding just 247 YPG (ranked fourth overall thus far.)

Last week the Wolverines posted 423 yards of offense, while holding the Boilermakers to just 30 yards rushing on 20 carries. 

Michigan QB Wilton Speight was injured early and got replaced by John O’Korn, who had 270 yards passing, with one TD and one INT. The Wolverines defense leads the nation right now in conceding just 203.1 YPG. 

I’ll point out though that the Wolverines are 0-5 ATS in their last five following their bye week, while the Spartans are 3-1 ATS in their last four after allowing ten points or less in their previous contest.

Ultimately I feel that the Spartans’ defense can keep the team competitive in this one late. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on North Carolina (12:00 EST).

Notre Dame is 4-1 SU/ATS, while UNC is just 1-4 SU/ATS.

Am I suggesting to you that you should “sprinkle” a little on the money line? Of course not. I simply feel though that this one sets up as a bit of a natural “letdown” spot for the Irish, while I expect the desperate home side to risk life and limb to try and pull off an upset this afternoon. Ultimately in my opinion, this is a few too many points for Notre Dame to be giving up here.

The Irish most recently smashed Miami-Ohio 52-17, while the Tar Heels are off a 33-7 road loss at Georgia Tech. 

Notre Dame RB Josh Adams had 159 rushing yards last week to go along with two TD’s. QB Brandon Wimbush was just 7 of 18 for 119 yards, but with three TD strikes. 

Overall the Irish defense was unspectacular, allowing 377 total yards. Notre Dame’s biggest weaknesses are its passing game (just 166.6 YPG thus far) and also in defending the pass (conceding 241.6 YPG.)

The Tar Heels have had a difficult opening schedule, falling 47-35 to Louisville, 35-30 to Cal and 27-17 to Duke. 

UNC’s loss to Georgia Tech last week was its first true “dud” of the campaign. QB Chaz Surratt was 18 of 30 for 141 yards, no TD’s and a pick. The run game produced just 106 yards. Surratt so far has 988 yards, five TD’s and two INT’s on the season. So far the ground attack averages 142.4 YPG. 

The Tar Heels’ defense has been their weak point, but note that Notre Dame is just 2-8 ATS in its last ten following an ATS victory, while UNC is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 following an ATS loss.

The Irish are the better overall team, but I expect the Tar Heels’ offense to have its opportunities today against what I think to be a rather suspect Notre Dame defensive unit. As mentioned off the top, I’m not calling for the upset, but I will be grabbing all those points!

Good luck…Larry

My 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR is on BYU (10:15 EST).

Boise State is 2-2 SU/ATS, while BYU is 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS. 

Boise State comes in off its bye after getting hammered 42-23 at home by Virginia. BYU lost 40-24 on the road at Utah State on Saturday. 

Note that BYU plays with revenge today after falling 28-27 to the Broncos on the road last October 20th.

The Broncos were outgained 440-383 by the Cavaliers. So far Boise State is ranked 69th in scoring offense with an average of 29.8 PPG, while tied for 86th in scoring defense in conceding 29 PPG.

Broncos’ QB Montell Cozart has just 416 yards passing, six TD’s and one INT. He leads the team in rushing though with 191 yards on the gruond and two scores. QB Brett Rypien had 521 yards and TWO INT’s. 

BYU had a 21-7 lead a minute into the second quarter, before then collapsing and allowing 33 unanswered points to Utah State. The Cougars actually held a 396-288 edge in total yards and a 20-14 advantage in first downs. Seven turnovers were the difference maker though. So far BYU averages 15.8 PPG, while allowing 26.4.

Cougars’ QB Tanner Mangum had 466 yards, two TD’s and four INT’s. He splits time between Koy Detmer Jr. and Beau Hoge. Ula Tolautau leads the way on the ground with 188 yards rushing and a TD. 

I’ll point out though that BYU has excelled in this spot for bettors of late, going 12-7 ATS when playing with six days rest, 8-7 ATS in its last 15 at home and 5-3 ATS in its last eight against the Mountain West, while Boise State has struggled in this position by going just 1-3 ATS in its last four when playing with two or more weeks of rest and only 5-7 ATS in its last 12 non-conference contests.

While I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, I do think that the hungry/desperate home side will at the very least keep this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8:25 EST).

While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the improving home side to give the defending champs everything they can handle today. 

The Pats are 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS, while Tampa is 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS.

It’s a short-week, which almost always benefits the home side (for obvious reasons.)

Last week the Bucs came from behind to beat the Giants 25-23, while New England comes to town off a humbling 33-30 setback at home to Carolina.

New England’s defense is a mess right now and I don’t foresee things getting easier in this hostile environment. The Pats’ struggled against the mobile Cam Newton, allowing him to throw for 316 yards and a three TD’s, as well as rush for 44 and another major score. Remember, the Pats also gave up 44 points to the Chiefs on Opening Night (I had KC in that one.)

And that doesn’t bode well facing the extremely mobile Jameis Winston who was 22 of 38 for 332 yards and three TD’s with no picks last week. RB Jacquizz Rodgers added 83 yards on the ground. 

The Bucs’ defense looked stout as well, allowing just 379 yards to the Giants.

Winston isn’t getting nearly enough respect in my opinion, as he’s going to be able to pick apart this Pats’ suspect secondary. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Buccaneers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on North Carolina State (7:00 EST).

Both teams are 4-1 SU/ATS. 

Louisville comes in off a 55-10 smashing of Murray State, while NC State hung on for a tough 33-25 victory at home over Syracuse last weekend. 

Note that this is a “revenge” game for the home side tonight after Louisville crushed the Wolfpack 54-13 at home last season. 

Louisville QB Lamar Jackson was 18 of 26 for 249 yards and three TD’s last week, while also rushing for 100 yards and another major score. Jackson has looked better the last two weeks after a loss to Clemson, but clearly the competition has been “vanilla.” 

The Cardinals defense looked horrible in the loss to the Tigers, but the unit has looked better the last two weeks against the weaker competition. 

NC State was in a potential letdown spot against the Orange last Saturday after a big road win at Florida State the previous weekend, but the Wolfpack were clicking early and went into the break with a 26-7 lead. Nyheim Hines had 115 rushing yards and a TD, while Jaylen Samuels had 74 yards and a major score. 

Pack’ QB Ryan Finley was 20 of 33 for 186 yards and a TD. Like the Cardinals, NC State has so far been very adept on both sides of the ball this season. 

Note though that Louisville is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten against teams with winning records and only 5-6 ATS in its last 11 on the road, while NC State is 2-1 ATS in its last three against clubs with winning records and 5-2 ATS after two or more consecutive SU victories.

Louisville has already shown to struggle against better teams and I believe that will once again be the case here. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on NC State.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* LEGEND is on Georgia Southern (8:00 EST).

Arkansas State is 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS, while Georgia Southern is 0-3 SU and 0-2-1 ATS. 

Note that Georgia Southern plays with revenge tonight after Arkansas State pulled off the 27-26 home win with nine seconds left in the game last year. 

Both teams looked shaky in non-conference action, admittedly Georgia Southern even more than Arkansas State to this point, as it fell 22-12 to FCS New Hampshire back on September 9th. 

The Red Wolves are led by QB Justice Hansen, who so far has 985 yards, ten TD’s and two INT’s. In their 44-21 loss to SMU, Hansen was 16 of 26 for 234 yards and two TD’s. The defense looked horrible in allowing 580 yards, including 314 on the ground. 

The Eagles defense held the Hoosiers to just 11 of 22 passing for 185 yards on September 23rd, but stumbled against the run in allowing 283 yards on the ground to Indiana. 

Georgia Southern’s Triple Option offense was finally firing on all cylinders, producing 242 yards on the ground (five fumbles were the difference though.) QB Shai Wets so far has 230 yards and two TD’s passing, along with another 180 yards rushing. 

I’ll point out though that Georgia Southern is 3-1 ATS in its last four after three or more consecutive ATS losses, while Arkansas State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after allowing 44 points or more in its previous contest.

I like Georgia Southern to benefit from the extra time off between games and to build off its latest decent effort. 

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Kansas City Chiefs (8:30 EST).

Washington is 2-1 SU/ATS, while Kansas City is 3-0 SU/ATS. 

I base my picks on many different things. For the most part with this selection, I simply feel it sets up great for Kansas City.

The Redskins are coming off back-to-back wins, including a satisfying 27-10 victory over the Raiders at home last Sunday night.

With its “bye” coming next week, it’s not too hard to imagine at all Washington getting caught “looking ahead” in some small way to its time off.

Conversely the Chiefs are on the road again next week for a tough one against suddenly surging Houston, making tonight’s contest all that much more important. 

As I said, from an overall situational stand point, they don’t get much better than this. 

If we look at what each of these teams have done over the first three weeks, clearly they’re very evenly matched up and down the board and on both ends of the field. 

Redskins’ QB Kirk Cousins and Chiefs’ pivot Alex Smith are a “wash.” The defenses have been probably even better than the offenses (and the offenses have been getting great production, both through the air on the ground.)

Two even teams, but the overall “situation” greatly favors the home side. I’ll also point out that the Redskins are in fact just 1-3 ATS in their last four after allowing ten points or more in their previous contest, while KC is 6-4 ATS in its last ten off a win against a division rival.

I expect KC to take advantage of the above listed factors and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NON-CONFERENCE BLOWOUT is on the Seattle Seahawks (8:30 EST).

Both teams enter at 1-2 SU, however the Seahawks are 0-3 ATS, while the Colts are 2-1 ATS.

Many experts believed the Seahwawks would be in the Super Bowl this year, but clearly the team has issues in all three phases right now. The offense has been anemic, especially in the red zone. The defense has been decent, but has been susceptible to giving up the big play.

However, the Andrew Luck-less Colts come to town contented after their first win of the season, holding off the Browns 31-28 at home last weekend. 

The Seahawks will now be looking to take advantage of this complacency and take out their frustrations after falling 33-27 on the road at Tennessee.

Indy forced three turnovers last Sunday, but it’s still just ranked 20th in scoring offense with 17.7 PPG, The defense is the worst in the entire league though, conceding 31 PPG thus far.

QB Jacoby Brissett is 39 of 64 for 526 yards, one TD and one INT, while RB Frank Gore leads the ground attack with 145 yards and two TD’s. 

Seattle averages just 16 PPG so far, but it’s ranked eighth overall in scoring defense in conceding 19.7 PPG.

Hawks’ QB Russell Wilson has 729 yards, five TD’s and no INT’s, while adding another 100 yards rushing as well. Doug Baldwin is Wilson’s top target with 20 catches for 212 yards and a TD. 

I’ll point out that Indianapolis has in fact struggled in this spot for bettors for a while though, going just 1-7 ATS in its last eight after scoring more than 30 points in its last game, while also going 0-4 ATS in its last four following a SU victory.

Conversely, Seattle has excelled in this position by going 5-1 ATS in its last six home games against a club with a losing record.

There’s no team in the league right now that’s under-performed more than the Seahawks to this point. Clearly they can’t be happy whatsoever. 

But here’s the perfect opponent to get untracked against. The Colts picked up their backup QB just before the season began. Beating the Browns at home is one thing, but competing with this highly motivated Seahawks team which is playing with a chip on its shoulder in front of the home town crowd is quite another. 

I have a hard time seeing the Colts mustering much offense this week and I expect Wilson to finally have a break out signature performance. Lay the points with confidence, play on Seattle.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NFL Week Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Giants at 4:05 ET.

It's Week 4 of the 2017 NFL season but Tampa Bay has played just two games (1-1), as its Week 1 contest against Miami was postponed due to Hurricane Irma. The Buccaneers welcome the win-less NY Giants (0-3) to Raymond James Stadium this Sunday for a game in which it's fair to say, both teams badly need to win. The Giants are looking to avoid an 0-4 start for the first time since 2013 and a loss here would all but 'bury' them in an NFC East division in which all three rivals sit 2-1 after three games. Expectations for the Bucs were high coming into 2017 but in the NFC South, the Falcons are already 3-0 and the Panthers 2-1, so a 1-2 start to a season in which the team will play the rest of the year without the benefit of bye, would likely not bode well.

The Giants' offense finally got going in the fourth quarter last Sunday, as Eli threw three TD passes and New York rallied for 24 points. However, Philadelphia PK Jake Elliott's made a 61-yard FG on the game's final play, giving the Eagles the 27-24 win. The Giants hadn't scored 20 points in eight straight games before Manning led them to 21 points in a span of 5:21. He tossed TD passes of 10 yards and four yards to Odell Beckham Jr. to tie it at 14. Manning then connected over the middle to Shepard, who broke a couple tackles and sprinted all the way for a 21-14 lead. However, it was all for naught, as Elliott, who hadn't made a FG of more than 40 yards in an NFL game prior to Sunday, connected on the longest game-winner in NFL history for a rookie and a franchise record for Philly (it's tied for the third-longest game-winning kick in the final 10 seconds in NFL history!). The Giants own the NFL's worst rushing offense (48.7 YPG) and so far, its defense has not looked like the dominating unit from 2016.

Tampa Bay also owns a poor running game, averaging just 71.5 YPG (26th). QB QB Jameis Winston has completed 65.7 percent of his passes for 532 yards with three TDs and three interceptions. However, as we saw against the Vikings last Sunday, he still has a tendency to force the ball into tight windows (Minny had three INTs!). The Tampa Bay defense has to be a worry, as last week it allowed a whopping 494 yards to a Minnesota team with Case Keenum at QB (entered the game 9-16 as an NFL starter). Keenum threw for 369 yards and three TDs (zero INTs), completing 25 of 33. Are you kidding me? The week before, the Bucs faced former QB Mike Glennon (was 5-14 as a NFL starter entering that contest), now with the Bears.

Against those two "marginal" QBs (I'm being kind here), the Bucs have allowed 329.5 YPG passing after two games, ranking 31st of 32 teams. Also, the pass rush has produced just one sack. Eli's OL is a worry but the Bucs don't seem all that suited to pressure him. The Giants came excruciatingly close to their first victory last Sunday and the team will either bounce-back from that near-win, or let it derail its season with another losing effort. Considering that Tampa Bay is just 2-8 ATS it last 10 as a home favorite, my bet says the Giants rebound.

Good luck...Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Jets (1:00 EST).

Both teams come off victories. Jacksonville smashed Baltimore 44-7 in London last week. Now the Jags have to transition back to America for another road game and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a predictable “letdown” in this spot.

Conversely, New York is primed for another big effort here after knocking off the Dolphins 20-6 at home last Sunday.

Jags’ QB Blake Bortles had 244 passing yards and four TD’s last weekend, while the Jacksonville defense held the Ravens scoreless until the final possession of the game. RB Leonard Fournette had 59 rushing yards and a TD as well. 

Jacksonville looked great in an opening week win over Houston as well, only to then lay an egg at home in Week 2 against the Titans. Consistency from week to week is still a problem in my opinion.

The Jets held the Dolphins to just 225 total yards and I think the unit is going to have another big day against the road weary Jags’ offense. New York QB Josh McCown had 249 passing yards and a TD, while RB Bilal Powell added 37 rushing yards and a TD. 

The Jets would completely shut down the Dolphins run game, holding Jay Ajayi to 16 yards on 11 carries. 

I’ll point out as well that the Jags are in fact 0-2 ATS in their last two as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while New York is 5-3 ATS in its last eight as an underdog in the same points range.

Bortles had a big game last week, but I think he stumbles here against this vastly underrated Jets’ defensive unit. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Browns (1:00 EST).

While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can, as I expect the home side to keep this one competitive from start to finish.

The Bengals are getting too much respect in this position, considering their 0-3 in my opinion. QB Andy Dalton has been poor with 606 yards, two TD’s and four INT’s. 

Browns’ rookie QB DeShone Kizer can empathize, he has 646 yards, three TD’s and seven INT’s. 

The Bengals fell 27-24 in OT in Green Bay on Sunday, blowing a late 21-7 lead. Dalton had 212 passing yards and two TD’s. WR AJ Green was a bright spot with 111 receiving yards and a TD. 

Cincinnati though lost the yardage battle 344-301.

The Browns also come in off a nali-biting loss, falling 31-28 to the Colts in OT on Sunday. 

Expectations and pressure is a lot lower on Kizer and company than Dalton and his crew, so the setback is clealry a positive for this young Browns team. Kizer did finish with 242 passing yards and two TD’s (also three INT’s.)

Duke Johnson Jr. had 81 yards on six catches for the Browns, while Kenny Britt had 54 yards and a TD. 

The Browns offense can put points on the board and the team is just as skilled as the Bengals are in all three phases. As mentioned off the top, with the way that Dalton is playing right now, I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset in this one (but as also mentioned above, make sure to grab the points!)

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (1:00 EST).

I use many different techniques when handicapping throughout the season. Sometimes for me its all about the players on the field, but other times its about stats or situations.

And that for the most part is the case here. The Ravens are coming off a humiliating 44-7 loss in England and while they looked great over their first two games, I think they’re set up for another letdown here after transitioning back State side. 

The Steelers are also coming off a loss, falling 23-17 in OT to lowly Chicago.

QB Ben Roethlisberger was 22 of 29 for 235 yards and a TD, while also adding a six-yard rush and losing a fumble.

Roethlisberger has been decent, but not great to open the season. But with Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and pass-catching RB Le’Veon Bell, I think it’s just a matter of time before “Big Ben” returns to form.

After two decent outings, Ravens’ QB Joe Flacco was a disaster last weekend, completing eight passes for 28 yards and two INT’s. 

Flacco is playing behind a banged-up offensive line and it was finally exposed in this one as he was forced to continually settle for check downs. Note that the Ravens only scored on the final possession of the game, long after backup Ryan Mallett had taken over. 

The Steelers did play well defensively last week and I think that’s going to spell big trouble once again for Flacco and company this afternoon.

Additionally I’ll point out that Pittsburgh is interestingly 5-3 ATS in its last eight games played in the month of October, while Baltimore is just 1-7 ATS in the same position.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Steelers.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on Troy (7:00 EST).

I feel this is a few too many points to be giving up here. Troy won its third straight with a 22-17 win at home over Akron, but so far the Trojans are 0-4 ATS. 

LSU comes in off a 35-26 home win over Syracuse last weekend.

Troy came out and went 97 yards in nine plays to score the game winning TD in two minutes last weekend. 

So far Troy is ranked 97th in scoring offense with 24 PPG, while ranked 25th in scoring defense in coneding just 18 points per contest. QB Brandon Silvers has 1,084 passing yards, two TD’s and two picks. RB Jamarius Harris has 198 yards and three major scores.

LSU led by 18 twice in the third quarter and had to hold on for dear life down the stretch last Saturday. So far the Tigers are ranked 78th in the nation in scoring with an average of 28.5 PPG, while ranked 27th in conceding 18.3 

Tigers’ QB Danny Etling has 723 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s, while RB Darrel Williams has 251 yards and five TD’s thus far. 

I’ll point out though that Troy is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games against a team wih a winning home record, while LSU is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four in front of the home town crowd.

Am I suggesting to you to “sprinkle” a little on they money line? I am not. I simply feel this is too many points to be giving up to this underrated Troy team. I like the Trojans’ stout defense to keep the visitors competitive in this one late. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Boston College (1:00 EST).

CMU is 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS, while BC is 1-3 SU/ATS.

The Chips won their first two games of the season, but have since lost two straight, combining for just 31 points in the setbacks. Last week Central Michigan fell 31-14 to Miami Ohio. QB Shan Morris had 195 yards passing with one TD and two INT’s. Jonathan Ward led the way with 56 rushing yards. Over the last two games Ward has averaged just 3.3 YPC.

BC won its opener, but has since lost three straight. The Eagles average just 15 PPG thus far. The Eagles lost to No. 2 ranked Clemson 34-7 last weekend, but it’s worthy to note that they were tied at seven after the third quarter. 

BC forced two turnovers, while also committing two itself. QB Anthony Brown had 133 yards, one INT and no TD’s. RB AJ Dillon has 115 rushing yards over his last two games. 

I’ll point out though that CMU is just 1-4 ATS in its last five non-conference games and just 1-5 ATS in its last six on the road, while BC is 7-2-1 ATS in its las ten against the MAC.

The Eagles have played a much tougher schedule and I look for the ACC team to assert itself in front of the home town crowd. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on Pittsburgh (12:00 EST).

Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a rout from start to finish in this one. 

The Panthers are going to be the more desperate team as they look to snap a three-game slide, with consecutive setbacks to Penn State, Oklahoma State and Georgia Tech. 

The Owls can empathize, as they’ve lost two straight, most recently to Houston and Florida International.

Rice QB Sam Glaesmann had an injury last weekend and his status for this one is up in the air as well. If he does play, clearly he won’t be at 100%. Jackson Tyner was 15 of 26 for 131 yards with no TD’s and one INT in the listless 13-7 loss to FIU. 

So far Rice ranks 118th in averaging just 292 YPG. 

Panthers’ QB Max Browne splite time with sophomore Ben DiNucci last weekend. Browne was 10 of 15 for 88 yards. 

Pittsburgh is a young team and the secondary is a weak point, but clearly the unit catches a break this week in facing the Owls anemic offense.

The home field advantage factor can’t be overlooked here I don’t think. Neither can the fact that Rice is dealing with an injured starting QB and an offense which so far has done absoluely nothing.

I like the home side to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Washington State (10:30 EST).

While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the home side to at the very least, keep this one competitive until the final moments.

USC enters off a 30-20 road win over Cal, while Washington State knocked off Oregon State 52-23 at home. 

Trojans’ QB Sam Darnold has already thrown seven INT’s over his last four games. Darnold was 26 of 38 for 223 yards, two TD’s and a pick in last week’s win. USC though posted just 356 total yards, while allowing Cal to accumulate 416. 

USC averages 492 yards on offense and concedes 370.2 on defense.

Last week Washington State jumped out to a big lead and then never looked back. QB Luke Falk was 36 of 47 for 478 yards and five TD’s with no picks. So far he has 14 TD’s to just one INT.

The offense averages over 500 yards per game, while the defense has been fantastic as well, allowing just 263.2 YPG thus far.

I’ll point out that USC is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 on the road and just 7-9 ATS in its last 16 against teams with winning records, while Washignton State is 10-7 ATS in its last 17 at home and 7-4 ATS in its last 11 against teams with winning records.

For all the reasons listed above, play on Washington State.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on BYU (8:00 EST).

Enough is enough as far as BYU is concerned, as it’ll be looking to get off the schneid and break a three-game losing streak. 

BYU most recently is coming off losses to LSU, Utah and Wisconsin. 

Utah State has alternated wins with losses, most recently crushing San Jose State 61-10 last weekend.

BYU lost a bunch of playmakers on offense in the offseason, including QB Taysom Hill and RB Jamaal Williams, but the unit was expected to be better than what it’s shown so far. 

The Cougars have so far averaged just 9.8 PPG this year: “We have a long ways to go, but we have a lot of season left to play, so we will take advantage of the bye week and try to help ourselves get better so we can win games,” head coach Kalani Sitake assessed. “If we want to be as good as these great teams, we need to play them.”

Utah State’s awesome defensive numbers are a bit skewed I think, considering the competition. Last week QB Kent Myers had 271 yards through the air, while the run game finished with 318. 

Despite that though I’ll point out that BYU is 4-1 ATS in its last five against the Mountain West and 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 after scoring fewer than 20 points in its previosu outing, while Utah State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five at home and only 3-7 ATS in its last ten non-conference contests.

I like the desperate Cougars to utilize their size at the line. After last week’s big win, I also believe the Aggies come in a bit content and flat-footed. I’m laying the points.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Miami Florida (7:00 EST).

Last week the Hurricanes thumped Toledo 52-30. The Blue Devils enter off a tough 27-17 road win over UNC and suffice it to say, I think the home side is primed for a letdown here.

And if recent history is any precidence, then Miami Florida has to be loving its chances today, because when these teams met on the field of play last year, it was the Canes that strolled to a relatively simple 40-21 victory.

Miami trailed 16-10 at the half last week, showing some rust in the first after a two week layoff due to Hurricane Irma. The Canes finally got it together in the second half though, scoring the first 28 points out of the break. 

Hurricanes’ QB Malik Rosier was 26 of 37 for 333 yards, three TD’s and an INT, while Mark Walton rushed for 204 yards and a TD. So far the offense is ranked fifth in the nation in scoring with an average of 46.6 PPG. The defense has held its own, ranked 47th in allowing 21.5 PPG.

Duke is 4-0, but now faces its stiffest test to date. The Blue Devils held the Tar Heels to 377 yards. The offense put up 388 yards. QB Daniel Jones was serviceable by going 18 of 34 for 204 yards and a TD. 

So far the Blue Devils are ranked 23rd in scoring with 40.5 PPG, while ranked 17th in the nation in conceding just 15.2 PPG.

I’ll point out though that the Hurricanes have excelled in this spot for bettors, goign 17-5 ATS in their last 22 following a SU victory of 20 points or more, while Duke has struggled against Miami whenever these teams have met, going just 1-7 ATS the last eight in this series.

Miami’s offense is much better than UNC’s and I ultimately believe Rosier is going to be a difference maker tonight. In a back and forth affair, I look for the high-powered Hurricanes to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Green Bay Packers (8:25 EST).

Lambeau is a tough spot to play in and suffice it to say, I think the Bears are going to predictably stumble here.

Chicago looks primed for a letdown after its upset win at home over Pittsburgh last week. Green Bay also won in OT, coming from behind to knock off the Bengals 27-24 at home.

Purely from a situational stand point, there’s no question that this one favors the Packers. Both teams off hard-fought OT victories, now have to transition to the short week for the nationally televised Thursday night game. The short week almost always favors the home side and certainly in this spot, Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers has an immense amount of experience in these scenarios.

The Bears got 138 rushing yards from Jordan Howard in their upset victory over Pittsburgh. Chicago’s passing game has been a disaster though because of injury. QB Mike Glennon was 19 of 22 for 101 yards last week and was also sacked twice and threw a pick.

That type of play simply isn’t going to get the job done this week against a now re-focused Packers team led by Rogers, who had 313 yards with three TD’s last Sunday. The running game looked weak, but the defense was decent in holding the Bengals to just 301 total yards. 

I’ll point out as well that Chicago is just 8-9 ATS in its last 17 on the road, while Green Bay is 12-7 ATS in its last 19 in front of the home town crowd.

I think the Bears are content with their big victory, while the Packers are eager to atone for their near upset loss last Sunday. Lay the points with confidence, play on Green Bay.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* BIG 12 GAME OF THE MONTH is on Texas (8:00 EST).

Texas will be eager to return to the winners circle after a frustrating 27-24 OT loss to USC. Iowa State on the other hand looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion after its 42-14 win over Akron. 

And if recent history is any precedence, then the Longhorns have to be liking their chances for a bounce back this weekend, because when these teams met last year it was Texas that cruised to the convincing 27-6 road victory. 

Longhorns’ QB Sam Ehlinger was 21 of 40 for 298 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s. The ground game was the issue though, posting just 68 yards on 35 carries. WR Collin Johnson was unstoppable, making seven catches for 191 yards. 

Perhaps most impressively though was the way the Texas defense played, considering the high-powered opponent they were up against, limiting USC to 468 total yards (OT as well), as well as making two INT’s and three sacks.

Cyclones’ QB Jacob Park was 24 of 33 for 317 yards and two TD’s last week. So far Park has 935 yards passing. RB David Montgomery also had a big day, posting 127 rushing yards.

The ISU defense also looked good last week, holding Akron to 331 total yards, including just 38 on the ground. 

Park is an amazing talent, but I still think that Texas is better through all three phases of the game. The Longhorns just took the Trojans down to the wire and I think the team carries that impressive momentum over into this one for a convincing victory. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the Arizona Cardinals (8:30 EST).

Both teams come into this at 1-1 SU. The Cards have yet to play a home game, so there’s no question that that atmosphere is going to be electric in the building tonight. 

The Cowboys didn’t do so well in a similar environment, albeit at Mile High on Sunday Night last weekend, getting crushed 42-17 by the Broncos. 

After losing in Detroit in Week 1, Arizona finally got untracked and posted a victory in Indianapolis last weekend. 

The Cowboys’ offensive line was a strength last year, but it looked shaky last Sunday. In fact, the entire Dallas offensive unit looked out of sorts. 

The defense is also now a major issue, with several key injuries in the secondary.

And that doesn’t bode well facing Carson Palmer at home. Palmer had 332 passing yards last week to go along with a TD and INT. 

Cowboys’ QB Dak Prescott threw two INT’s last week and he faces another stiff test, as last weekend the Cardinals allowed 190 passing yards and just 76 rushing yards.

I’ll point out that Dallas is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games, while the underdog is 4-0 ATS the last four in this series.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Cardinals.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* SUPER SHOCKER is on the Washington Redskins (8:30 EST).

While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I think the home side will at the very least, take this one down to the wire. 

This is a long trip for the Raiders to make cross country. Throw in the national spot light and there’s no doubt that this one favors the Redskins from a situational stand point.

Oakland comes in off a 45-20 win over the Jets at home on Sunday, while Washington enters off a hard-fought 27-20 road victory over the Rams (which seems even more impressive now after what LA put up against San Francisco on Thursday night.)

So far the Raiders are 14th in the league in passing with 240 yards per contest and lead the league overall in scoring with 33.5 PPG. The defense is ranked tenth in conceding 18 PPG. QB Derek Carr has 492 yards, five TD’s and no INT’s so far this year. 

RB Marshawn Lynch has 121 yards and a TD thus far. 

Washington had 229 rushing yards against LA, while throwing just 27 passes. The Redskins got two turnovers and committed zero. 

So far Washington is ranked 13th in scoring with 22 points per game and 26th on the defensive side in conceding 25. QB Kirk Cousins has 419 yards with two TD’s and no INT’s. Cousins is surrounded by a bunch of offensive weapons on the ground and in the receiving game. 

I’ll point out as well that Oakland is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten after two or more consecutive SU victories, while Washington is 15-8 ATS in its last 23 when playing the role of underdog.

I think the Raiders finally stumble here and I expect Cousins to have his best game of the year to this point. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Seahawks (4:05 EST).

The Seahawks enter off a hard-fought 12-6 win over San Francisco, which now doesn’t seem so bad after what the 49ers put up against the Rams on Thusday night, while the Titans got the better of Jacksonville 37-16 on the road. 

The Hawks struggled in their opening game in Green Bay and then had to hold on for dear life against the 49ers. So far Seattle’s defense has been stout and will remain a strength of the team moving forward (13 PPG conceded thus far.) 

QB Russell Wilson was 23 of 49 for 198 yards and a TD last weekend. So far Wilson has struggled this season.

The silver lining for the Hawks’ offense last week was that it did have 131 rushing yards.

Tennessee looked poor against Oakland and great against Jacksonville. So how should we judge the Titans at this point?

It’s difficult and the sample size is too small. We’ll absolutely have a much better idea where the team truly stands after this weekend though. The Seahawks are a dangerous team, one which will be getting after Titants’ QB Macus Mariota throughout. 

Wilson will also be looking to atone for some early lacklustre play.

Additionally I’ll point out that Seattle is 2-1 ATS in its last three off a win against a division rival, while Tennessee is 0-2 ATS in its last two in the same position.

While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Seahawks.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NFL Week 3 Las Vegas Insider is on the Ind Colts at 1:05 ET.

The Browns and Colts meet Sunday at the Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, with both teams looking to avoid 0-3 starts to the 2017 season. The Browns fought hard in a season-opening 21-18 home loss to the Steelers but were much worse last Sunday, losing 24-10 in Baltimore to the Ravens. The Colts 'flipped that script,' getting routed 46-9 out in LA against the Rams in Week 1, before losing 16-13 in OT last Sunday at home to the Arizona Cardinals. 

Browns rookie QB DeShone Kizer had a solid season debut, going 20 of 30 for 222 yards with one TD and one INT (85.7 QB rating), while also adding 17 rushing yards and a TD run. However, he suffered through a 'nightmare' of a game this past Sunday, interrupted with a migraine headache in the second quarter after four ineffective series; a three-and-out, a lost fumble, an interception and a punt. Kevin Hogan replaced him and went 5 of 11 for 118 yards with one TD and one INT. Kizer said the headaches are hereditary and that he hasn't had one crop up in a game since high school. He received medication, underwent concussion protocol, and finally received clearance to return in the third quarter with Baltimore up 21-10. He would finish 15 of 31 for 182 yards without a TD pass, three INTs and a lost fumble (27.3 QB rating). Once again, the Browns are showing no signs of a running game, averaging 75.0 YPG on 3.3 YPC. A silver lining is a defense that's allowed 22.5 PPG on 313.5 YPG, after allowing 28.3 PPG on 392.4 YPG last season.

Luck remains sidelined and the Colts decided that Scott Tolzein was not an option, so the quickly traded for New England's Jacoby Brissett. It was anybody’s guess as to how Brissett would play because last week was his first week that he ran the first-team offense in practice. He was still wearing a wristband with the play calls on it during the games. However, all in all, he showed plenty of promise. Yes, the interception he threw in OT set up the Cards' game-winning FG but as RB Frank Gore noted, "He's going to be just fine. He played the with type of confidence where you would have never guessed he’s only been here for a little bit.” Brissett was 22 of 40 for 267 yards, zero TDs and that one 'killer' interception. After allowing 46 points against the Rams, the Colts D held the Cards to just 16 points.

The Indianapolis Colts need a victory here in order to avoid their first 0-3 start since the 2011 season and the Browns could play the perfect foil. Cleveland is off a 1-15 season and enters on a 14-game road losing streak, last winning a road game back in October of 2015! I realize that Brissett has thrown 92 passes in the regular season without a TD pass but he's got an excellent target in T.Y. Hilton plus TE Doyle has 10 catches (on just 11 targets) in his first two games. As for the Colts D, if it can hold the Cards to 16 points (in OT), the struggling Browns shouldn't be much of a problem. The fact that the Colts have won SEVEN of their last eight games against the Browns, makes taking Indy even easier, as does the fact that Cleveland is just 1-20 SU in its last 21 road games!

Good luck...Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Denver Broncos (1:00 EST).

Denver comes in with a ton of momentum after destroying the Cowboys 42-17 last week.

Buffalo though has for the most part been a disaster after two weeks, barely holding on for a victory over the lowly Jets in Week 1, before suffering a 9-3 loss to Carolina last weekend (lucky in my opinion to have even covered the spread in that one.) 

Broncos’ QB Trevor Simien decimated the Cowboys vaunted defense for 231 passing yards and four TD’s to just one INT. RB CJ Anderson had 118 rushing yards on 25 carries. WR Demaryius Thomas had six catches for 71 yards. 

Both the run game and the passing game are firing on all cylinders right now for Denver.

But not to be outdone, the Broncos look even better on the defensive side of the ball, last week holding the Cowboys offense to a mere 268 total yards, including RB Ezekiel Elliot to just eight yards on nine carries. Von Miller was impressive with two sacks and two tackles for a loss. 

Bills’ QB Tyrod Taylor was just 17 of 25 for 126 passing yards, along with 55 rushing yards in last week’s pathetic effort. RB LeSean McCoy had a paltry nine yards on 12 carries. 

Buffalo’s silver lining so far this year has been on the defensive side of the ball, allowing a total of just 255 total yards last week and posting six sacks on Cam Newton.

But now that unit faces a white hot Broncos unit, one which I think will dominate and expose a group which has yet to be truly tested this year. 

I’ll point out as well that Devner is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four after accumulating more than 150 rushing yards in its previous game, while Buffalo is just 7-17 ATS in its last 24 after allowing 15 points or less in its previous contest.

Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a rout from start to finish, play on the Broncos.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST).

It’s a short week for Detroit, which beat the Giants on Monday night. Atlanta also comes in at 2-0, beating Chicago and then Green Bay (both convincingly.)

Atlanta has looked impressive in the early going, not succumbing to a “hang over” after last year’s devastating Super Bowl loss. Matt Ryan and the offense, both the receivers and RB’s, look like they haven’t lost a step whatsoever.

And the Falcons have also looked sharp defensively, coming out on top in two tough games to open the season.

Detroit has also looked good, getting by a struggling Giants team 24-10 on Monday. QB Matt Stafford was 15 of 21 for 122 yards and two TD’s. 

The Lions had the early lead and turned to the run game through most of it, accumulating 138 yards.

The defense looked stout as well by sacking Eli Manning five times and holding New York to 270 yards of offense. 

But stopping Manning and the Giants’ impotent offensive line is one thing, while slowing down the gun-slinging Matty Ice and the Falcons’ high-flying offense is quite another. 

I’ll point out as well that ATL is 8-2 ATS in its last ten road games, while Detroit is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven against the NFC.

The Falcons did a great job of containing Rodgers, so I have a hard time seeing Stafford doing much better. Atlanta could be a much bigger fav in this spot I think. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* BIG-TEN PERFECT STORM is on Iowa (7:30 EST).

Penn State has so far dominated to open the 2017/18 campaign, going 3-0 and giving up just 14 points in the process. 

Iowa is also 3-0 and comes in off an easy victory over North Texas last weekend.

Note that this sets up as a “triple-revenge” scenario for the Hawkeyes.

Last year the Nittany Lions won 41-14. So far Penn State has averaged 47 points through the first three games, most recently handling Georgia State 56-0. QB Trace McSorely was 18 of 23 for 309 yards and a TD, while RB Saquon Barkley had four catches for 142 yards and a TD. 

Iowa also looked sharp in its 31-14 win over North Texas, going for 21 unanswered points in the second half. In all three different backs recorded double-digit carries for the Hawkeyes. Toren Young led the charge with 78 yards on 19 carries, while Ivory Kelly-Martin had 74 yards and two TD’s. 

QB Nathan Stanley was 16 of 27 for 197 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s. 

I’ll point out that Penn State has in fact struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 1-2 ATS in its last three as a road favorite of 10.5 to 14 points, while Iowa has excelled by going 3-1 ATS in its last four against teams with winning records.

Iowa is always tough at home and while I’m obviously not calling for an outright upset, I do think that the Hawkeyes can keep this one competitive late. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* MOUNTAIN-WEST PERFECT STORM is on Air Force (7:00 EST).

SDSU upset Stanford and has broken into the Top 25 because of it. Suffice it to say, I think this conference matchup sets up as a classic letdown spot for the Aztecs after their big upset win.

Air Force on the other hand will be eager to return to form after falling to Michigan late last weekend.

But as stated off the top, after back-to-back win over Pac-12 opponents, I think SDSU comes out flat here. 

In all SDSU posted 353 yards against Standford, while limiting the Cardinal to just 80 passing yards. Stanford also uncharacteristically turned the ball over three times.

San Diego State QB Christian Chapman was 21 of 29 for 187 yards and a TD, while RB Rashad Penny had 175 yards. 

The Falcons fell away late in their 29-13 setback to Michigan. Air Force only tried one pass and completed it, a 64 yarder by QB Arion Worthman to Ronald Cleveland. The Falcons though had 168 rushing yards. 

SDSU is playing pretty good defensively right now, but it still doesn’t possess a Power Five-caliber line, so I’m expecting Air Force’s option offense to look a lot better tonight.

I’ll point out as well that San Diego State is just 2-4 ATS in its last six as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range, while Air Force is 7-2 ATS in its last nine as an underdog.

SDSU is 6-1 ATS in the last seven in this series, but I think this lop-sided trend starts to correct itself this evening. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* ACC PERFECT STORM is on Pittsburgh (12:20 EST).

Pittsburgh won its opener but has dropped its last two games, both against Top 10 teams, getting outscored 92-35 in the process. 

Georgia Tech lost by one point to Tennesee in Week 1, before then earning a victory over lowly Jacksonville State in its most recent. The Yellow Jackets’ game against UCF was cancelled because of Hurricane Irma last week, so the possibilty of “rest” leading to “rust” is a very real factor in my opinion.

Georgia Tech’s offense is completely centered around the run, currently ranked first in the nation with 372.5 rushing yards per game, while ranked just 123rd in passing yards per contest.

The Panthers gave up 572 passing yards to Oklahoma State last week, but just 104 on the ground. Clearly the visitors’ gassed secondary catches a big break this week though with the Yellow Jackets’ run heavy offensive scheme. 

Pitt QB Ben Dinucci had 228 yards and a TD, but he had two INT’s as well. Overall the Panthers had 103 rushing yards.

Georgia Tech had 210 yards rushing against Jacksonville State, while holding JSU to just 189 total yards and three turnovers. 

In their first game the Yellow Jackets posted 535 rushing yards in what turned out to be a heart-wrenching double OT loss to Tennessee. 

Ultimately though I think Pittsburgh comes in and at the right moment, catching a Georgia Tech team flat-footed after the extra time off. 

I’ll point out as well that the underdog and the road team are 4-0 ATS in the last four games in this series.

Grab as many points as you can, play on Pittsburgh.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF MONTH is on Virginia (8:00 EST).

Am I suggesting to you to “sprinkle” a little on the money line? I’m not at all. I do think however that the Cavs can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. 

Virginia enters off a 38-18 home win over UConn on Saturday, while Boise State enters off a 28-14 home victory over New Mexico last Thursday. 

The Cavs had a 24-0 halftime lead and never looked back last weekend, outgaining the Huskies 626-432. 

So far Virginia is 17th in the country in passing with 325.3 YPG and 83rd overall in scoring with 27.7 points. The Cavs have been even better defensively though so far, allowing just 20.7 PPG. 

QB Kurt Benkert has 976 yards, seven TD’s to just one INT thus far, while RB Jordan Ellis has 219 total yards and three major scores to this point.

Boise State led by just 14-7 after three quarters last week, before pulling away in the fourth. Note that the Broncos won the game despite being outgained 277-264, by losing the first down battle 18-12 and the time of possession 33:04 to 26:56. 

So far Boise State is ranked 60th in scoring with 32 PPG, while ranked 69th in scoring defense in conceding 24.7.

Broncos’ QB Montell Cozard is 33 of 48 for 348 yards, five TD’s and one INT, while also leading the team in rushing with 179 yards.

Note though that Virginia is 7-3 ATS in its last ten on the road, while Boise State is just 2-11 ATS in its last 13 at home. 

Ultimately I feel the Cavs offense can keep this one close, giving the visitors a chance for an upset at the end. I’m grabbing the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the San Francisco 49ers (8:25 EST).

While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can.

The 49ers weren’t expecting to make the playoffs this year, but at 0-3 and with a three-game road trip on deck, Thursday night essentially becomes a “must win” game for San Francisco.

It’s a short week as well, which always favors the home side no matter the situation. 

LA looked good in beating an Andrew Luck-less Colts team, but came back down to Earth in last week’s 27-20 setback at home to the Redskins. 

There’s no question that the Rams look better under new coach Sean McVay, but they haven’t gotten around the corner quite yet.

LA QB Jared Goff was just 15 of 24 for 224 yards and one TD, while RB Todd Gurley had 88 yards and a score in last week’s setback.

In San Francisco’s 9-6 loss in Seattle QB Brian Hoyer was 15 of 27 for just 99 yards. However, RB Carlos Hyde had 124 yards on 15 carries. 

The big news of course was San Francisco’s defense though, which looked very good for a second straight week; make sure to keep your eyes on LB NaVorro Bowman, who had ten tackles on Sunday.

I’ll point out as well that the Rams are just 1-3 ATS in their last four as a road fav of three points or less, while the 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five as a home dog of three points or less.

A great oveall “situational” play which is backed by strong and relevant trends. I like the more desperate team to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on San Francisco.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on South Florida (7:00 EST).

Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a rout from start to finish in this one.

Temple is coming off a 29-21 home victory over Massachusetts, while South Florida stormed to a 47-23 home victory over Illinois last weekend.

Note that the Bulls play with revenge today after the Owls scored the 46-30 victory in the series last year.

Last week Temple QB Logan Marchi was 22 of 37 for 248 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s. Marchi has put the team on his back and so far has 767 passing yards and a 5/0 TD/INT ratio. RB Ryquell Armstead had 81 yards on 17 carries.

The Owls defense looked a little shaky though, while they did only allow 61 rushing yards, the secondary was exposed in allowing 377 passing yards. 

Bulls’ QB Quinton Flowers was 15 of 27 for 280 yards, four TD’s and one INT in last week’s rout. So far Flowers has 678 passing yards and an 8/2 TD/INT ratio. Note though that Flowers also has 243 rushing yards. 

RB Darius Tice had 105 yards on 12 carries last weekend. 

The USF defense also looked stout, allowing 354 total yards to the Fighting Illini, including a 6 for 15 mark on third downs. 

I think it’s interesting to note as well that Temle is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a road dog in the 17.5 to 21 points range, while USF is 6-3 ATS in its last nine as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range.

I think the Bulls’ defense will prove to be a big difference maker today. Lay the points with confidence, play on USF.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* 34-Club Play is on the New York Giants (8:30 EST).

I think New York is the more “desperate” side tonight and ultimately I believe this will prove to be a deciding factor in the final outcome of this game. 

The Giants came out flat in their 19-3 Opening Week loss to the Cowboys. That was without WR Odell Beckham Jr. though.

The Lions rallied from a 17-9 deficit in the third quarter to win 35-23 over the Cardinals in Week 1. 

But if recent history is any precedence though, then New York has to be liking its chances for a bounce back performance tonight,because when these teams met in December last year, it was the Giants which prevailed 17-6 at home.

Detroit QB Matt Stafford was 29 of 41 for 292 yards, four TD’s and a pick last week. The ground game did virtually nothing though, which does make the Lions’ offense very one-dimensional and thus, pretty easy to game-plan against (finished by averaging just 81.9 YPG on the ground last year.) Golden Tate was another standout with 107 yards receiving. 

Giants’ veteran QB Eli Manning had a terrible night in Week 1, finishing 29 of 38 for 220 yards and a pick. New York fell behind early and was forced to abandon the run. Manning himself was forced to throw a lot of short dump passes, as he was constantly under pressure. 

The silver lining for New York though was its overall play on the defensive end, holding Dallas to under 20 points and just 392 total yards of offense. 

I’ll also point out that Detroit is just 7-9 ATS in its last 16 on the road and only 10-13 ATS when playing the role of underdog, while New York is 9-6 ATS in its last 15 at home and 9-7 ATS in its last 16 as a favorite.

OBJ is back and that makes the Giants very dangerous offensively. Detroit’s achilles heel is its play on the road and I expect that to be the case again here.

Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Dallas Cowboys (4:25 EST).

Dallas looked dominant in all three phases in its victory over the Giants in Week 1, while the Broncos had to hold on for dear life in their Opening Week victory over division rival San Diego. 

The Cowboys’ Ezekiel Elliot had 104 yards rushing and caught five passes for 36 yards last week. QB Dak Prescott was 24 of 39 for 268 yards and a TD to TE Jason Witten. 

Denver’ QB Trevor Simien was 17 of 28 for 219 yards, two TD’s and an INT last week. RB CJ Anderson had 81 yards on 20 carries. 

The Broncos would also give up three TD passes to Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers, getting outscored 14-0 in the fourth quarter.

I’ll point out as well that Dallas is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 follwing a victory, while Denver is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against clubs with winning records.

Even though the Cowboys didn’t dominate offensively last week, the special teams and defense was on point. Denver on the other hand looked shaky offensively and then fell apart defensively down the stretch as well. That doesn’t bode well facing this dangerous and confident Cowboys side.

The correct call in this one is on Dallas.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NFL Week 2 Las Vegas Insider is on the Ten Titans at 1:00 ET.

The Tennessee Titans went 9-7 last season, missing the postseason by losing a tie-breaker to the Houston Texans for the AFC South title. However, with Marcus Mariota coming off a solid season (19-10 TD to INT ratio) and RB Marco Murray running for 1,287 yards as both offensive stars operated behind an outstanding OL, many felt as if the Titans would be "the team to beat" in the AFC South in 2017. However, the Titans lost 26-16 at home to the Raiders last Sunday (note: the Raiders are a VERY good team!). As for the Jags, since an 8-8 season back in 2010, the team opened 2017 as the owners of six consecutive losing seasons, going 22-74 (.229), overall. So what did the Jags do last Sunday? Their D accumulated 10 sacks and held the Houston Texans (coming off back-to-back AFC South titles) to a single TD and 203 total yards in a dominating 29-7 victory. So much for preseason expectations.

That said, I'm not even close to ready to bail on the Titans after that opening-week loss. Mariota has the ability to wheel out of trouble unlike Houston's Savage and while Watson does have that ability, he came in down 19-0 and the Jags just "kept coming." In his first-ever regular season game, the rookie wasn't able to handle it. That WON'T be the case with Mariota. Also, no way Murray will be held to just 44 yards on 12 carries, again.

Fournette ran for 100 yards in his NFL debut, as the Jags ran the ball 39 times (155 rushing yards), against just 21 pass attempts. That allowed QB Blake Bortles, who was clearly on the 'hot seat' in the preseason (if Henne could play at all, he would have won the starting job!) to play without any real pressure. He was was mistake-free (no TOs) but completed 52.4% for a pathetic 125 yards (had one TD pass). That's what happens when your defense (10 sacks and 203 yards allowed) and running attack, controls the game.

I can't see Fournette having another big game against the Titans rush defense, as Tennessee allowed an average of 88.3 YPG on the ground in 2016, ranking second in the entire NFL (just 4.0 YPC). Let’s see how Bortles plays if Jacksonville has to play from behind? Series history is not on my side, as the home team has won six straight meetings between these two teams and eight of the last 10, overall (last time a road team won a game in this series was back in December of 2013!). However, I remain pretty high on the Titans and I won't forget that the Jags limped into this season 22-74 over their last six seasons. A surprising win in Week 1 of the 2017 season doesn't much change my feelings towards Jacksonville. I'll close by noting that the Jags have won back-to-back games just TWICE since the 2014 season. Give me the better team at this poinstspread.

Good luck...Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Browns (1:00 EST).

Am I suggesting to you that you should “sprinkle a little on the money-line” in this one? Of course not. I do however think that the Browns can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

I think Baltimore comes in a bit complacent here after its big 20-0 road win over AFC North opponent Cincinnati last weekend. 

The Browns though almost shocked the Steelers in the 21-18 setback to Pittsburgh, getting great play from rookie QB DeShone Kizer and above average play from the defense.

Kizer was sacked seven times, but would finish 20 of 30 for 222 yards, one TD and one INT. Kizer though would also run for 17 yards and another major score. 

And as mentioned above, the defense was good, holding the Steelers to just 35 rushing yards (and that’s without top pick DE Myles Garrett in there.) 

Ravens’ QB Joe Flcco was 9 of 17 for 121 yards, one TD and a pick. Flacco though didn’t even attempt a pass in the second half, with the team focusing on the run after jumping out to the early lead. 

Baltimore’s defense looked fantastic as well, but it faces a much more versatile pivot this week. 

I’ll point out that Cleveland is 5-2 ATS in its last seven on the road in this series, while Baltimore is interestingly 0-4 ATS in its last four off a straight-up victory of more than 14 points.

Kizer is a difference maker here. With a game under his belt, I think he’ll keep this one competitive. Grab as many points as you can, play on the Browns.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New Orleans Saints (1:00 EST).

While I’m not going to call for the outright victory, I do think that the hungry and motivated home side will keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

The crowd will be going crazy on Opening Night at the Mercedez-Benz Superdome against the defending champs.

The Pats were smashed 42-27 at home by the Chiefs last weekend and I think they look primed for another letdown here as well. 

New England’s vaunted defense would allow 537 yards, while QB Tom Brady was 16 of 36 for 267 yards and no TD’s. New receiver Brandin Cooks dropped four passes. 

New Orleans comes home off a tough 29-19 MNF setback to Minnesota. 

The Saints gave up 470 yards to the Vikes and allowed them to convert on 9 of 14 third down attempts. RB Adrian Peterson had just 18 yards on six carries. QB Drew Brees was 27 of 37 for 291 yards and a TD. 

I’ll point out that New England is just 1-2 ATS in its last three “dome” games, while New Orleans is 12-9 ATS in the same position (also interesting to note that the Saints are 2-0 ATS the last two seasons after playing on Monday Night Football.)

Does this game mean more to New England? Hardly! I like the home side to at the very least, take this one down to the wire. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Bears (1:00 EST).

The Bucs haven’t played this year and don’t really know “what they have yet.” The Bears are 0-1 but came very close to upsetting the visiting Falcons last weekend in the eventual 23-17 setback.

While I’m not calling for the outright upset, I do definitely expect the hungry visiting side to keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch.

Tampa was scheduled to face Miami in Week 1, but Hurricane Irma postponed the game. Note that Chicago plays with revenge here as well after falling 36-10 in Tampa last November 13th.

Bears’ QB Mike Glennon was 26 of 40 for 213 yards and a touchdown, while rookie Tarik Cohen had 66 rushing yards and eight catches for 47 yards and a TD. The Falcons were the highest scoring team in the league last year, so the 372 yards given up has to also be looked at in a favorable light.

The Bucs turn to Jameis Winston, who had 4,090 yards, 28 touchdowns and 18 INT’s last season. The team acquired DeSean Jackson in the offseason as a big time playmaker, but with the team having to focus on “real life” issues the last couple of weeks, one has to wonder where Tampa Bay’s head is at right now?

I’ll point out as well that Chicago is 12-7 ATS in its last 19 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Tampa Bay is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a favorite in the same points range.

I think we have a battle on our hands here, not a blowout. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on Pittsburgh (12:00 EST).

Am I suggesting that you should “sprinkle a little on the money line” in this one? No I am not. However, I do think that the underdog home side can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. 

Oklahoma State comes in off a 44-7 drubbing of South Alabama on the road last Friday, while Pitt fell 33-14 on the road at Penn State last weekend.

Note that when these teams played last year, it was an absolute battle. One which the Cowboys won, but only by the skin of their teeth (45-38 on Sept. 17th, 2016.) Suffice it to say, I’m expecting another nail-biter here as well.

OKS is ranked 10th in the country in scoring with 51.5 PPG, while coneding only 15.5 PPG, ranked 31st. QB Mason Rudolph is 45 of 62 for 638 yards and six scores. RB Justice Hill has 159 yards and a TD to lead the ground game thus far. 

It’s interesting to note that despite the setback to the Nittany Lions last Saturday, the Panthers actually outgained Penn State 342-312 and won the first down battle 24-14.

The difference maker was three costly turnovers, otherwise Pitt had a legitimate chance at taking that one outright.

So far Pittsburgh is ranked 103rd with 21 PPG on offense, while ranked 77th in allowing 27 PPG. QB Max Browne is 36 of 56 for 278 yards, one TD and two INT’s. Quadree Oilison had 187 yards rushing and two major scores.

I’ll point out though that the Cowboys are just 1-4 ATS in their last five as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while Pittsburgh is 8-6 ATS in its last 14 when playing the role of underdog.

With a game at home against TCU up next, it’s not too hard to imagine the visitors in some small way getting caught “looking ahead” to that one. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Memphis (12:00 EST).

While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the home side to at the very least, take this one down to the wire.

UCLA comes in off a 56-23 home win over Hawaii on Saturday. Memphis comes into this one fresh, as it hasn’t played since beating Louisiana Monroe 37-29 back on August 31st. The Tigers were scheduled to play UCF last weekend, but the Hurricane ruined that meeting. 

UCLA has to travel across the country for this one. Last week the Bruins actually lost the yardage battle 515-505 to the Warriors. They also lost the time of possession by a 36:05 to 23:55 margin. 

Despite that though the Bruins are ranked 11th in scoring so far this year with 50.5 PPG. They are however ranked 104th on the defensive side of the ball in conceding 33.5 PPG thus far. QB Josh Rosen has been solid with 820 yards, nine TD’s and no INT’s. The run game has been non-existent though, as Bola Olorunfunmi leads the way with just 63 yards and one TD. 

The Tigers have been game-planning for this one for two weeks. Memphis struggled at times against the Warhawks, but still managed to find a way to get the win. All told the Tigers ran for 319 yards and four touchdowns, with Darrell Henderson leading the way with 169 yards on the ground and two scores.

I think it’s interesting to note that UCLA is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine games played in the month of September, while Memphis is 5-3 ATS in its last eight in September. 

With a conference tilt at Stanford next weekend, it’s not too hard to imainge the Bruins in some small way getting caught “looking ahead” to that one. A great situational play overall, grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on UTEP. 

I think Arizona gets caught “looking past” lowly UTEP this evening to its conference game at home next weekend against Utah.

Arizona comes in off a deflating 19-16 loss to Houston last week, while UTEP fell 31-14 at home to Rice.

Wildcats’ starting QB Brandon Dawkins was 17 of 29 for 178 yards and no TD’s. Khalil Tate was 5 of 8 for 41 yards. JJ Taylor was a stanout with 87 rushing yards. 

Arizona looked decent defensively, holding Houston to 383 yards. The Wildcats were a disaster on the defensive side of the ball last year and in my opinion, the book is still out on the unit to this point.

Miners’ QB Ryan Metz was 18 of 33 for 203 yards, a TD and no INT’s last week. Metz has yet to find his stride this year, but he does come in off a decent campaign in 2016. The running game is weak, but the receiving corps is strong, keep your eyes on Kavika Johnson, who had six catches for 67 yards last week.

The Miners struggled to stop the run last Saturday, allowing 300 rushing yards, but they’d also post two sacks and allow just 131 passing yards. 

UTEP’s defense catches a break here in facing the pass heavy offense of Arizona. Also note that the Miners are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 off a loss against a conference rival and 5-2 ATS after two or more consecutive SU losses, while Arizona is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine non-conference games and only 3-8 ATS in its last 11 on the road.

While I’m not calling for an outright victory, I do definitely feel this is a few too many points to be giving up to the hungry Miners. Play on UTEP.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on South Florida (7:00 EST).

Analysis posted at least six hours before game time.

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Massachusetts (7:00 EST).

While I’m not calling for an outright victory, I do think that the 0-3 Minutemen will be the much more desperate side and I think that will translate into a much closer game than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

UMass enters off a loss against Old Dominion, while Temple comes in off a victory against Villanova.

The Minutmen seem poised to put some points on the board though. Note that in last week’s 17-7 setback to OD, UMass didn’t commit a single turnover. The offense though managed only 332 yards on 73 plays. 

QB Andrew Ford was not terrible, going 21 of 32 for 236 yards and a TD. Listen to what head coach Mark Whipple had to say afterwards:

“The defense played well enough to win,” Whipple assessed. “The offense shot themselves in the foot. We didn’t execute enough to win. We need to get back to work tonight. It’s a short week and we have to get ready for Temple on Friday night. Credit Old Dominion. They made plays. We didn’t play well up front (on offense) and we took some sacks we didn’t need to.’’

Temple QB Logan Marchi was shut down against Notre Dame, but bounced back to go 20 of 34 for 274 yards and no INT’s last week. The red zone offense faltered though as the team had to settle for FG’s. Now the Owls face another tough defense in the minutemen. 

Temple looked sharp defensively against the Wildcats, but now faces a desperate team hungry to get off the schneid.

Note that UMass is 2-1 ATS in its las three after three or more consecutive ATS losses, while Temple is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range. 

I think Temple gets caught “looking ahead” to its tough conference road game against USF next week, leaving the back door open just wide enough for the visitors to sneak in through down the stretch. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the Cincinnati Bengals (8:25 EST).

Both teams are coming off disappointing Week 1 setbacks, as Houston fell 29-7 at home to Jacksonville, while Cincinnati would get shut out 20-0 at home to the Ravens. Note that the Bengals play with revenge here after falling 12-10 in Houston last year.

The Texans looked horrible on both sides of the ball last week. QB Tom Savage was sacked six times and had two fumbles, one which was returned for a TD. DeShaun Watson came in and he was 12 of 22 for 102 yards and one TD and one pick. In all though the offensive line gave up ten sacks.

The defense allowed rookie RB Leonard Fournette run for 100 yards on 26 carries and 155 yards overall, while coming up with a total of zero sacks and zero forced turnovers. 

The Bengals also looked brutal, with QB Andy Dalton going 16 of 31 for 170 yards, four INT’s and one fumble. The run game produced just 77 yards on 22 carries. 

The defense looked decent though, allowing a total of 268 yards overall. Linebacker Vincent Rey had 11 tackles. 

I’ll point out though that Houston is just 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road (also 0-7 ATS in its last seven “Thursday” night games), while Cincinnati is 3-1 ATS in its last four off a loss against a division rival.

Dalton has the pedigree and track record to shake off one lousy game, while Watson will be starting his first ever profesionall football contest tonight. 

Houston would appear to be still “hung over” with having to deal with the Hurricane, while Cincinnati is focused and ready to atone for the pathetic Week 1 effort. Lay the points, play on the Bengals.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Denver Broncos (10:30 EST).

I’m playing both the side and the total in this game (the Broncos and the UNDER.) Divisional games are always the most important and they almost always mean more to the home side. 

Both teams have many questions as the season gets underway. LA is in a new home and has a new head coach. 

Denver also has a new coach which hopes to get his new team back into the playoffs after missing for the first time since 2011.

Last year the Chargers were horrible on defense, allowing 26.4 PPG, ranked 29th overall. The team made some moves in the offseason to address these issues, including using a fourth and fifth round pick for the secondary. Clearly the unit catches a break in Week 1 though in facing the Broncos run first offense.

LA’s offense should once again make some noise this year with veteran QB Philip Rivers and RB Melvin Gordon, but clearly the unit faces a stiff task out of the gate in facing the Broncos elite defense on the road. 

And Denver’s defense is expected to be even better this eason with the additions of second round pick DE DeMarcus Walker and third round pick CB Brendan Langley. Last year the Broncos were fourth in the league in yards allowed. The pass defense was No. 1, holding teams to just 185.8 YPG.

And clearly that doesn’t bode well for Rivers on opening night. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting to see a lot of Gordon while the visitors are on offense.

The weakness for Denver is on the offensive side of the ball as the team will try to once and for all determine if Paxton Lynch or Trevor Siemian will earn the starters role. The team did however go out and sign Brock Osweiler as third stringer as well. 

It’s interesting to note that LA is a money-burning 3-3 ATS in its last six games played in the month of September, while Denver is 6-0 ATS in its last six games played in September.

I like the Broncos to step up defensively and do just enough on the offensive side to seal the ATS victory. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New Orleans Saints (7:10 EST).

While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can, as this one has the feeling of whichever team has the ball in its hands last will win type scenario.

New Orleans enters off three straight 7-9 seasons and will be looking to break that trend with a playoff ticket. Minnesota jumped out to a massive start last year, only to fall apart down the stretch and finish 8-8. 

The Saints’ issue the last few years has been on the defensive side of the ball as the offense has pretty much remained elite with veteran Drew Brees in the pocket. Last year Brees had 5,208 yards, 37 TD’s and 15 INT’s. RB Adrian Peterson will be out to make a statement against his former team tonight.

New Orleans used three of its first four picks on defensive players and brought in LB’s Manti Te’o and AJ Klein through free agency over the offseason, so the unit is now finally expected to make some strides this season.

Minnesota had a great defense last year, ranked sixth in points allowed at 19.2. The unit should once again be a strength of the team, but clearly it’s going to have its hands full with Brees and company right out of the gates.

The Vikes’ offense though was lousy and it’ll be a weak point again this season. The team did bring in WR Michael Floyd.

New Orleans’ offense is tried, tested and true. It’s never deviated from its domination over the last three years. The Vikes were fantastic defensively last year, but I think the book is out on the unit still until it can prove itself again this season. 

The Saints’ will likely be terrible defensively again this year, but that said, we should also now definitely see some improvement moving forward after the offseason re-tooling.

The Vikes’ offense is also a big question mark at the moment and that makes the Saints the correct call in this matchup.

Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Seattle Seahawks (4:25 EST).

I think Seattle is the deeper and more complete team and while I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can.

The Seahawks won the NFC West title last year and then lost to ATL in the divisional round. Green Bay won the NFC North and then was taken down by the Falcons in the Conference round.

Seattle just sent WR Jermaine Kearse and a 2018 second-round draft pick to New York in exchange for Pro Bowl lineman Sheldon Richardson. The Hawks made another move on the same day to acquire CB Justin Coleman from the Patriots for a seventh-round pick. 

The Seattle defense was already solid, but now it looks downright scary (last season it was eighth against the pass and seventh against the run.)

These teams have met five times since 2012 and the Hawks are 3-2. Green Bay though has won the last two, including a blowout 38-10 victory in Week 14. 

Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers went for 246 yards and three TD’s in that one. With Rodgers under center, Green bay will always be a contendor, but a lack of playmakers on both sides of the ball have many wondering if the dynamic pivot will be able to do it all by himself.

Seattle had a great pre-season and QB Russell Wilson is finally playing at 100% health. 

As stated off the top, I won’t be shocked by an outright upset, but I’m going to grab the points in the end.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* NFL Week 1 Las Vegas Insider is on the Cin Bengals at 1L00 ET.

John Harbaugh took over as the Ravens' head coach in 2008 (Ravens were 5-11 in 2007), the same year Baltimore drafted a little-known QB out of Delaware, Joe Flacco. That duo would help lead the Ravens to five consecutive playoff seasons (54-26 regular season record), winning a Super Bowl title in 2012. However, since that 2012 season, the Ravens have had just one winning season over the last four years (10-6 in 2014) and these last two years have seen the Ravens go 5-11 and 8-8. Flacco missed the entire preseason and returned to practice for the first time since the end of June mini-camp this past Saturday. Somewhat surprisingly, the Ravens were a perfect 4-0 in "practice" games, with victories over the Redskins, Dolphins, Bills and Saints. 

The Bengals stumbled to a 6-9-1 season in 2016, ending a five-year playoff run (six of the previous seven). This preseason, the Bengals opened with a win over the Bucs but then fell to Chiefs, Redskins and Colts to finish 1-3. QB Andy Dalton and WR A.J. Green are "big-time" players plus RB Gio Bernard will be joined by speedy rookie RB Joe Mixon (Okla). Cincinnati added a few notable names in the off-season including LB Kevin Minter and OT Andre Smith but the OL is in a state of transition, while the defense will be missing starting LB Vontaze Burfict (three games) and CB Adam Jones (one game), both on NFL suspensions. 

Baltimore has consistently said that it expects Flacco to be fine for Week 1. However, is a full week to prepare for the regular-season opener in Cincinnati enough? Let me note here that Flacco's thrown just five TD passes and 12 interceptions in eight career games at Paul Brown Stadium. That makes sense when one notes that the Bengals have won and covered the last five years at home against the Ravens. Baltimore has gone 2-6 SU on the road each of the last two seasons, including opening 2-0 on the road in 2016 (wins over 1-15 Cleveland and 3-13 Jacksonville), before losing their final six on the road (1-5 ATS).

Was 2016 just a "down year," for Cincy or the beginning of a slide? Let's not ignore that this team has been quite consistent (few roster or coaching changes) and had put together four consecutive seasons of 10-plus wins prior to 2016 and entered last year having gone 19-4-1 SU at home from 2013-15, before going 4-3-1 last year. Cincinnati does own an 18-6-2 ATS record in their last 26 September games and I'm "all over" the Bengals at this 'workable' pointspread (8* on Cincinnati).

Good luck...Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Jets (1:00 EST).

If you called this one “The Toilet Bowl,” not many would argue.

New York was just 5-11 last year. Buffalo is also looking to improve and opens the season with a new head-coach and direction with Sean McDermott. 

If recent history is any precedence though, then the Jets have to be loving their chances today as they’d go on to take both meetings with the Bills last year.

Am I suggesting to you to “sprinkle a little on the money line?” Of course not. 

But I do definitely expect New York to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. 

Josh McCown is under center for the Jets this year and the good news for New York fans is that it would be very hard for him to be any worse than Ryan Fitzpatrick was last season. 

McCown will be leaning heavily on RB Bilal Powell, who had 722 yards last year. New York had a decent defense last season, allowing 424.4 YPG, ranked 11th overall.

The Bills allowed just 16.8 PPG in the preseason, but last year they were rakned 16th in the league with 23.6 PPG conceded. Buffalo’s strength though is once again expected to be on the defensive side of the ball.

The Bills averaged just 15.5 PPG in the preseason. Beyond QB Tyrod Taylor and dynamic playmaker LeSean McCoy, Buffalo is thin on the offensive side of the ball. 

Additionally I’ll point out that it’s interesting to note that the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four in this series.

I think the Jets above average defense will be able to contain Taylor and allow McCown a chance to keep this one within striking distance. Grab the points, play on New York.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Oakland Raiders (1:00 EST).

Both teams struggled in the preseason, with the Raiders going 0-4 and the Titans going 1-3. Of course, the preseason means nothing. Most of the time.

Both clubs finished second in their respective divisions last season.

The Raiders have won 29 of the last 49 in the series, including last year’s 17-10 victory in Nashville in Week 3. 

QB Derek Carr is back to 100% health after breaking his leg in Week 16 against the Colts last season. Carr will now be handing off to Marshawn Lynch, who the Raiders were able to talk out of retirement. 

You’ll also want to keep your eyes on Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, who are considered one of the best WR tandems in the league. 

The Titans’ Marcus Mariota also suffered a hurrendous leg injury to end the season. Mariota is also 100% ready to go in 2017. 

As good as Mariota is, the offense’s biggest strength is probably the run game, with three capable backs. 

I simply feel that Oakland is the deeper team through in all three phases. Also note that the Raiders are 9-3 ATS their last 12 on the road, while the Titans are just 7-21-2 ATS in their last 30 in front of the home town crowd.

Grab the points, play on the Raiders.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (1:00 EST).

Pittsburgh won the AFC North with an 11-5 record last year and then fell 36-17 to the Pats in the Championship round. 

Cleveland was terrible last season, lucky to earn a 1-15 record. 

The Steelers won both games last year, 27-24 in the first one and 24-9 in the second. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a much bigger blowout in the 2017/18 season opener.

I have a hard time seeing Cleveland slowing down Pittsburgh’s high-powered offense today. Big Ben is back under center, last year he finished with 3,819 passing yards and a big 29:13 TD:INT ratio. 

RB Le’Veon Bell is back after posting 1,268 rushing yards with seven TD’s in 12 games. Roethlisberger throws to perhaps the most dangerous tandem in the league in Antonio Brown and Martavias Bryant.

Pittsburgh was decent (not great) defenisvely last year, but clearly the unit catches a break in facing the Browns shaky offensive unit. 

Cleveland will be starting rookie QB DeShone Kizer, who had a decent preseason by going 25 of 49 for 351 yards, one TD and one INT. Kizer will be leaning heavily on RB Isaiah Crowell, who had 952 rushing yards. 

The Browns struggled defensively and while they should take a step forward this year, the unit still has more questions than answers currently. 

I’ll point out as well that the Steelers are 6-1 ATS in their last six on the road, while the Browns are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine at home.

Divisional contests are always the most important. All signs point to Pittsburgh sending an early message. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* SEPTEMBER SIDE OF THE MONTH is on Arizona State (11:00 EST).

SDSU enters off a 34-17 win over UC Davis, while Arizona State held on for a 37-31 victory over a tough New Mexico State side. 

The Aztecs were 11-3 last year and then beat Houston 34-10 in the Las Vegas Bowl. But only 11 starters return from that dominant team. SDSU is still expected to compete in the Mountain West with its potent ground attack. Last week the Aztecs rolled up 276 yards on the grounds, led by Rashaad Penny, who had 197 yards and two TD’s last week.

SDSU turns to Christian Chapman under center, last week he was 16 of 21 for 221 yards, two TD’s and an INT. 

The Aztecs defense looked solid last week, but clearly the unit faces a much stiffer test in Manny Wilkins and the high-flying Sun Devils on Saturday night.

Wilkins threw for 300 yards last week against a dangerous and experienced Aggies team. 

ASU averaged 33.3 PPG last year and it has seven starters back from that unit this season. Last week the offense put up 400 yards, including 321 through the air. Wilkins was 22 of 27 with two TD’s. WR John Humphrey had 123 yards on seven catches. 

Arizona State’s defense looked pretty bad last year and it looked flat-footed in Week 1 as well. The secondary catches a break this week though in facing the run heavy Aztec offense.

And ultimately I feel this is what it will come down to. The Aztecs don’t have the necessary downfield personel to keep the Sun Devils honest. 

I like Wilkins and company to have another big night and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on New Mexico (8:00 EST).

The New Mexico Lobos enter off a 38-14 season-opening win over Abiliene Christian. Dating back to last year UNM has now won eight of its last nine and three in a row.

QB Lamar Jordan had 213 yards and a TD, while the offense as whole posted 481 yards. 

The defense limited the Wildcats to just eight yards rushing. 

Now the Lobos setstheir sites on the Rio Grande Rivalry at Dreamstyle Stadium against New Mexico State. 

New Mexico State gave Arizona State everything it could handle last week, but eventually fell apart down the stretch, succumbing 37-31.

Tyler Rogers looked decent under center, setting a career high in pass completions and attempts.

Jason Huntley was another standout with a career high 84 yards rushing.

I’ll point out though that New Mexico State has struggled in this spot for bettors, going 0-2 ATS in its last two as a road dog in the 7.5 to ten points range, while New Mexico is 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring 37 points or more.

I think the Aggies have a letdown here on their second straight road game and after the near victory was snatched from them in Week 1. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on Louisville (12:00 EST).

The Cardinals rallied for 35-28 SU win over the Boilermakers in Week 1, but fell large against the spread in the neutral site affair. 

UNC lost to Cal 35-30 at home on Saturday. 

Louisville won the yardage battle with Purdue 524-344 last week, but three turnovers kept the game a lot closer than it should have been (although the Cardinals did force four turnovers of their own.) Additionally the defense would also produce a major score.

Cardinals’ QB Lamar Jackson was 30 of 46 for 378 yards and two TD’s, as well as running the ball 21 times for 107 yards, but fumbling the ball in the red zone as well. Jaylen Smith led the way through the air with eight catches for 117 yards. 

UNC led 17-7 at half and 24-21 after three quarters, but it didn’t score again until the game’s final play. The Tar Heels would go on to lose the yardage battle 469-440. 

The Heels also turned the ball over three times, while forcing only two of their own.

QB Brandon Harris was just 7 of 16 for 60 yards and two INT’s. Chazz Surratt was 18 of 27 for 161 yards and two TD’s. RB Michael Carter was a standout with 94 yards and two TD’s. 

The Tar Heels defense though was destroyed by a QB making his first career start. UNC also has troubles at the QB position.

Jackson and company were far from perfect, but still managed to gut out a victory. Suffice it to say I’m expecting the Cardinals to play much more disciplined in this one and I look for them to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on Purdue (8:00 EST).

Ohio comes in off a 59-0 win over Hampton, while Purdue dropped a hard-fought 35-28 battle with Louisville in its home opener. These schools haven’t met since 1998.

Bobcats’ QB Quinton Maxwell was 7 of 9 for 100 yards and one TD and one pick, while Nathan Rourke had 72 passing yards and three rushing TD’s. 

The run game accumulated 248 yards with AJ Oullette leading the charge with 63 yards on 12 carries. If the run game stalls, then the Bobcats are in trouble.

Ohio looked good defensively last week, but clearly that unit faces a much stiffer test on Friday night.

The Boilermakers will look to do just that as last week they’d give the Cardinals everything they could handle. QB Elija Sindelar threw for 118 yards and two TD’s, while David Blough had 175 yards and two TD’s (also two INT’s.) 

Purdue’s defense looked pretty average, but considering the opponent, it wasn’t completely horrible either. 

The Boilermakers were also able to put up 28 points against the 16th ranked Cardinals and I think they’re going to be able to build off that impressive performance. 

I’ll point out as well that Ohio is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while Purdue is 2-0 ATS in its last two as a fav in the 3.5 to ten points range.

The Bobcats’ one dimensional offense proves to be too predicable here. Play on Purude.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Kansas City Chiefs (8:30 EST).

After winning the AFC West last year, the Chiefs knew that the perennial East-champion Patriots would be on the schedule in 2017. That KC heads to Foxboro in the opener makes a difficult game even more of a test. But the Chiefs – who may be the best team that no one talks about -- could be looking at at least a cover in this one. Kansas City may be one of the few teams in the league not intimidate by Belichick & Brady – the Chiefs gave the Patriots a decent game in the playoffs a few years ago before running out of gas, and the year before that laid a 41-14 regular-season beating on New England. This time around things could hinge on how KC’s solid secondary does against Brady and a slew of new and talented players that NE has brought on board. Keeping new burner WR Brandin Cooks is a must for keeping the Chiefs in this one until the fourth quarter, which will go a long way toward covering the number. One other note – the Chiefs are 43-21 over the last four seasons and have won three straight openers.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Georgia Tech (8:00 EST).

This one is being played in the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta Georgia.

Tennessee finished 9-4 last year and would prevail 38-24 over Nebraska in the Music City Bowl, while Georgia Tech was 9-4, winning the TaxSlayer Bowl 33-18 over Kentucky. These teams haven’t faced each other since 1987.

The Vols gave up at least 31 points six times last year. Tennessee though was ranked 24th in the country in scoring with 36.8 PPG. 

The Vols don’t have Joshua Dobbs under center anymore. Coach Butch Jones has not committed to a No. 1 starter yet, so expect to see both Jarrett Guarantano and Quinten Dormady getting time. RB John Kelly is back after posting 580 yards and seven TD’s last season.

Georgia Tech ended the year winning six of its final seven after starting 3-3. Last season the Yellow Jackets would score at least 30 points in eight of their games. 

Georgia Tech was decent on both sides of the ball last year, finishing 70th in scoring (28.2) and 39th in scoring defense (24.5) QB Justin Thomas is gone, meaning that Matthew Jordan will likely be named No. 1 to open the season. 

The Yellow Jackets have a stable of great RB’s, which helps with their dangerous triple-option attack.

I’ll point out that Tennessee is just 1-2 ATS in its last three neutral site affairs, while Georgia Tech is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four in the same position. 

Both offenses will have to go through growing pains to open the season. Georgia Tech’s offense though relies on the ground game, not the QB’s arm. The Vols have a new QB, new RB’s and new WR’s. The Yellow Jackets have the superior defense in my opinion as well.

While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I’m going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Georgia Tech.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF WEEK is on Virginia Tech (7:30 EST).

These border rivals get ready to play a neutral site matchup, although they haven’t played against each other since 2005. Both teams are starting new QB’s this year, with Josh Jackson at Virginia Tech and WVU turning to Florida transer Will Grier. 

Grier had Florida at 6-0 in 2015 before testing positive for steroids. He’ll be joined by RB Justin Crawford, who had 1,184 yards and four TD’s last year. 

The offensive line is a big concern for the Mountaineers though as they try to replace LT Yodny Cajuste and All-American center Tyler Orlosky. 

The defense allowed 24 points and 425.9 YPG last season. However, once again there are major concerns about the line, as WVU has to replace all three starting lineman from its 3-3-5 defense.

Jackson will be leaning heavily on WR cam Phillips for the Hokies this year, as he’d finish with 76 passes for 983 yards and five TD’s last season. Jackson will also be turning to RB Travon McMillian, who rushed for 677 yards and seven TD’s. 

VT’s defense is expected to be solid out of the gates as it returns three linebackers and three of the four secondary starters. Last year the unit gave up an average of just 340.7 YPG.

I’ll point out as well that WVU is 0-4 ATS in its last four neutral site gams, while VT is 2-1 ATS in its last three in the same position.

Grier is a question mark in my opinion having not played competitively since 2015. The Virginia Tech defense looks much better than West Virginia’s as well. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Hokies.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on Florida State (8:00 EST).

I’m not going to call for the outright upset (although I wouldn’t be shocked), but I think that FSU will at the very least take this one down to the wire and sneak in through the back door down the stretch.

This one is being played in the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta Georgia. 

The Seminoles return 15 starters and 48 lettermen overall from a squad that went 10-3 last season (that included a 33-32 victory over the Wolverines in the Orange Bowl.)

FSU is led by QB Deondre Francois, an offense which was 40th in the nation in rushing last year, 33rd in passing and 25th in total offense while averaging 35.1 PPG overall. 

The Seminoles were horrible defensively over the first four games last year, allowing 42.3 PPG in that span. They’d recover the rest of the way though to allow only 18.5 over the final eight. And now FSU brings back 24 of 27 lettermen from that group, including ten starters.

Alabama has been to the playoffs in each of the last three seasons and has one title to show for it, getting upset 35-31 by Clemson last year. 

The Tide return 11 starters. Alabama will be dominant on the defensive side of the ball, it allowed just 13.0 PPG and 262 YPG last season. 

Jalen Hurts will once again be under center, last year he threw for 2,780 yards, 23 TD’s and nine INT’s. He aslo ran for 954 yards and 13 TD’s. Damien Harris is back as well, last year he ran for 1,037 yards. 

I think it’s interesting to note though that Florida State is 3-0 ATS in its last three against the SEC, while Alabama is 0-2 ATS in its last two agains tthe ACC.

I think the Noles are the complete package this year and I expect them to at the very least, come away with the comfortable covers once it’s all said and done.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Michigan State (12:00 EST).

Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a rout from start to finish in this one. Both teams come in off disappointing campaigns.

Bowling Green was one of the highest scoring teams in the nation in 2015 with 42.2 PPG, but in 2016 it averaged only 24.8. 

The Green Falcons return QB James Morgan, who comes in off a pretty mediocre season. In all the offense returns six starters. The receiving corp and RB’s look solid, but the concern out of camp is along the offensive line. 

Last year the defense allowed 38.3 PPG. The unit should see significant improvement this year with 22 of 28 lettermen back from that side of the ball, including six starters. Regardless, it’s still a weak point and one which I look for the Spartans to exploit.

Michigan State is looking for redemption this year after a 3-9 season. The Spartans will be leaning heavily upon RB LJ Scott, who had 984 yards and six TD’s last year. At QB is Brian Lewerke, who saw some playing time last season. 

The Spartans were decent defensively, allowing 27.8 PPG. The unit should make some strides this season as well and clearly it catches a break in facing the Green Falcons to open the 2017/18 campaign.

Additionally I’ll point out that Bowling Green is just 2-3 ATS in its last five as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while Michigan State is 3-2 ATS in its last five as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range.

The Spartans have a good shot at making it back to a bowl game this year and I look for the home side to come out extremely focused as it looks to start the new season off on the “right foot.” Lay the points, play on Michigan State.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Clemson (12:00 EST).

Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a rout from start to finish. 

Kent State was 3-9 last year. The Golden Flashes faced two Top 25 opponents and lost 48-0 to Alabama and 37-21 to WMU. 

The Tigers are the defending National Champions, but move forward of course without QB Deshaun Watson.

The Golden Flashes head coach Paul Haynes is out for the first few weeks because of medical reasons, meaning that OC Don Treadwell will serve in the interim. 

Treadwell doesn’t have much to live up to as Haynes is an abysmal 12-35 in his four years as head coach of Kent State.

Clemson coach Dabo Swinney will be prowling the sidelines tonight though and he’s made Kelly Bryant the starter. 

Bryant has just 75 yards and one TD in 18 career attempts. He’ll be sharing time though with Zerrick Cooper and Hunter Johnson. 

Whoever wins the starting job has a plethora of offensive talent surrounding them, including Ray-Ray McCloud, Deon Cain and Hunter Renfrow. 

I’ll point out as well that the Golden Flashes are just 11-24 ATS in their last 35 non-conference games, while the Tigers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 at home.

Kent State is a great appetizer to warm up on. Tigers roll.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Penn State (12:00 EST).

Suffice it to say I’m expecting a rout from start to finish in this one.

Akron finished 5-7 last year, while Penn State was 11-3. The Nittany Lions will be out to atone for a 52-49 loss to USC in the Rose Bowl though and that’s bad news for the lowly Zips obviously.

Akron dropped four straight to end the season and the defense was the major issue, as it would allow at least 38 points seven times. 

In their lone matchup against a Big Ten opponent last year, the Zips were destroyed 54-10 by Wisconsin on the road. 

Akron averaged 27.4 PPG and allowed 33.6. QB Thomas Woodson had 2,079 yards, 18 TD’s and six INT’s. Woodson’s top two receivers are gone though.

The Nittany Lions finished 21st in the country with an average of 37.6 PPG last year. They were ranked 47th on the defensive side in conceding 25.4 PPG. 

QB Trace McSorely had 3,614 yards, 29 TDs and eight INT’s, to go along with 365 rushing yards and an additional seven TD’s on the ground. 

You’ll also want to keep your eyes on RB Saquon Barkley, who had 1,496 yards rushing and 18 TD’s.

I’ll point out that Akron is notorious for getting out to slow starts, having gone just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games in September.

Also note that Penn State is a solid 5-0-1 ATS in its last six at home.

The Nittany Lions started 2-2 last year, so will be looking to get out to a much quicker start this time around. Look for the home side to put the foot on the gas from start to finish. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on Boston College (9:30 EST).

Boston College was 7-6 last year, but was just 2-6 in the ACC. 

The Eagles closed the season strong though with three straight wins, including beating Maryland 36-30 in the Quick Lane Bowl. 

I like Boston College to carry that momentum over here and to take advantage of a Northern Illinois team which finished 5-7 last year. 

The Huskies started four different QB’s last season. NIU has been a powerhouse in the MAC for almost a decade, but it has just 13 victories over the last two seasons. 

NIU is expected to test three different signal callers today in Ryan Graham, Daniel Santacaterina and Marcus Childers. The Huskies lost their top RB from last year in Joel Broughton, but have a capable replacement in Jordan Huff, who finished with 703 yards and five major scores last year. 

Despite the rotation at QB, the Huskies were decent offensively (3rd in conference), but it was their defense which was a disaster, allowing 30.3 points and 451.5 YPG

BC returns seven starters on the defensive side of the ball, including DE Harold Landry, who led the country in sacks with 16.5. The Eagles’ front seven is expected to once again be among the best in the nation.

BC struggled offensively last year, managing just 20.4 PPG. The Eagles have two options at QB, Darius Wade, who has the most experience, and redshit freshman Anthony Brown who many believe will eventually win the job. Brown is a legitimate dual threat.

I’ll point out that Boston College is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine against the MAC, while NIU is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six non-conference games.

I think BC’s run game and defense prove to be too much for the Huskies today, who come into this season with more questions than answers.

Play on the Eagles.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* LEGEND is on Washington (8:00 EST).

When these teams met last year in Washington the Huskies won 48-13. 

Washington went 11-1 last year, with its lone regular season loss coming against USC. Washington returns more than 85 percent of its offensive yards from a team which averaged 41.8 PPG and 457 YPG last season. 

QB Jake Browning threw for 3,430 yards with 43 TD’s and just nine INT’s last year. Browning has most of his RB and receiving corps returning, including Myles Gaskin, who ran for 1,373 yards and ten TD’s. 

The Huskies were also tough on the defensive side of the ball, ranked eighth overall after allowing 17.7 PPG. Note that 27 of 35 lettermen return, including six starters from the defense.

The Scarlet Knights were horrible last year, finishing 2-10, including 0-9 in Big 10 action. In games against Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State and Michigan State, Rutgers was outscored 224-0. Last year QB Kyle Bolin led an offense which averaged 15.7 PPG.

The defense was almost as bad, ranked 126th in the nation against the run and allowing an average of 37.5 PPG overall. 

The Scarlet Knights should make significant improvement over their abysmal numbers from a year ago, but the team still has more questions than answers as we head into the 2017/18 campaign.

I simply have a hard time seeing Rutgers doing anything offensively against what should be another Top 10 defense for the Hukies. Lay the points with confidence, play on Washington.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on New Mexico State (10:30 EST).

Both teams are out for redemption after sub-par season’s a year ago. 

NMSU has won just three games in each of the last two years. But the Aggies have big expectations this season, as they’re now the most experienced team in their conference, with 16 starters back. 

The NMSU defense was bad, allowing 38.8 PPG last year, but it’s expected to take a major step forward this season. 

The Aggies offense has improved each year under Doug Martin. QB Tyler Rogers had 2,603 yards, 16 TD’s and 12 INT’s last season and seven of his top eight receivers are all back.

The run game is expected to be tops in the Sun Belt as well, led by senior Larry Rose and who will be running behind the fourth best offensive line in the league. 

ASU finished 5-8 last year. The offense averaged 33.3 PPG and it returns seven starters from last season. Manny Wilkins threw for 2,329 yards, 12 TD’s and nine INT’s. 

The run game also looks strong with Kalen Ballage and Demario Richard, but the receiving corps is thin.

The Sun Devils were also brutal on the defensive side of the ball, allowing 39.8 PPG last season. 20 of 36 lettermen return from last year so the unit is also expected to improve significantly.

I’ll point out though that NMSU is 5-2 ATS in its last seven against the Pac-12, while ASU has struggled in this position for bettors for years now, going just 1-4 ATS in its last five games played in the month of August.

The Aggies won’t be intimidated whatsoever here and clearly the pressure is on the home side. I’m not predicting an outright epic upset, but I do think that the visitors can keep this one a lot closer than whan the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Play New Mexico State.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* of my Superstar Triple Play is on UL Monroe (9:00 EST).

Am I suggesting to you to “sprinkle a little on the money-line” in this one?

Of course not. I simply feel that the high-flying Tigers are going to get caught “looking past” the low-flying Warhawks to their game at UCF the following week.

Louisiana Monroe was just 4-8 last year and failed to qualify for a bowl, while Memphis finished 8-5, the Tigers going on to lose 51-31 to WKU in the Boca Raton Bowl. 

The Warhawks were atrocious on the road last year, especially on the defensive side of the ball. But as mentioned off the top, I think the unit catches a break here with the home side already planning for an early crucial conference tilt the following weekend. 

UL Monroe returns three QB’s from last year in Garrett Smith, Caleb Evans and Will Collins. The top two RB’s from last year also return in Ben Luckett and Thomas Koufie. 

The Tigers’ defense can empathize with their opponent today, as it would go on to allow at least 42 points in six games last year. 

Memphis is once again expected to be a power-house on the offensive side of the ball with Riley Ferguson leading the way, he had 3,698 yards, 32 TD’s and 10 INT’s last season. RB Dorolan Dorceus is also expected to have another big campaign.

I’ll point out though that the Warhawks are 4-2 ATS in their last six as a road dog of 21.5 points or more and 5-3 ATS in their last eight non-conference contests, while the Tigers are just 6-7 ATS in their last 13 at home and just 8-9 ATS in their last 17 as a favorite.

For all the reasons listed above, play on Louisiana Monroe.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Ohio State (8:00 EST).

Ohio State was 11-2 SU/ATS last year, while Indiana was 6-7 SU/ATS. 

Ohio State’s season ended with a disappointing 31-0 loss to Clemson in the Playoff semifinal.

The Buckeyes have to be feeling pretty confident as we head into the new season though as they return eight players on offense, including senior QB JT Barrett and RB Mike Weber. 

When these teams met last year, the Buckeyes rolled to a 38-17 victory. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting an even bigger blowout this time around. 

Barrett now has a ton of experience under his belt and I think he’ll be a big difference maker tonight. Barrett had 2,555 yards passing, 24 TD’s and seven INT’s, while also running for 845 yards and nine major scores last season. 

Ohio State averaged 39.4 PPG and ranked sixth nationally on the defensive side of the ball last year by allowing just 300.2 YPG. A strength also lies on the defensive line, with three of four starters returning.

Indiana returns nine starters on the defensive side of the ball, a unit which allowed an average of just 380 YPG. 

The Hoosiers once again turn to QB Richard Lagow this year, he completed 57.8 percent of his passes for 3,362 years, 19 TD’s and 17 INT’s last year. In all the offense would average only 25.8 PPG. 

I’ll point out as well that Ohio State is 42-20-1 ATS in its last 63 on the road, while Indiana is only 2-5 ATS in its last seven at home.

While the Hoosiers did improve dramatically on the defensive side of the ball last year, the offense once again has more questions than answers this season. I think Ohio State’s depth and experience on both sides of the ball proves to be too much for the home side. All signs point to a blowout, lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on Rice (10:00 EST).

Am I suggesting that you should “sprinkle a little on the money line?” Of course not. I simply feel that this is a few too many points to be giving up as I think Stanford is going to need some time to develop chemistry before its firing on all cylinders. 

This game is being played in Sydney Australia. 

The Cardinal finished 10-3 last year and went on to beat North Carolina 25-23 in the Sun Bowl, while the Owls were just 3-9 on the season. 

When these teams met on November 26th, Stanford came away with the 41-17 victory. 

Stanford has some work to do to return to prominence in the confernece. Keller Chryst is expected to get the start here (77 of 136 for 905 yards, ten TD’s and two INT’s.) However, Ryan Burns is waiting in the wings if needed (106 of 166 for 1,151 yeards, five TD’s and seven INT’s.)

Clearly the Cardinal offense is going to need to make adjustments after losing RB Christian McCaffrey to the NFL draft as well. 

The focus now shifts to Bryce Love, who ran 112 times for 779 yards and three major scores last year. 

The kicking game is also a concern, as Jet Toner and Collin Riccitelli are still very inexperienced.

Rice will once again struggle this season. Sam Glaesmann will make his first College start under center and he’ll be leaning heavily on RB Samuel Steward, who had 76 carries for 479 yards and three TD”s last year. 

WT Kylen Granson had 33 receptions for 381 yards and two TD’s. The kicking game is a strength of the Owls, with Jack Fox and Hade Tobola (31/31 XP, 7/11 FG, long of 46) both returning. 

I’ll point out as well that Rice is 5-3 ATS in its last eight non-conference games, while Stanford is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine in the same position.

Both teams have a lot of questions on the offensive side of the ball and ultimately I think the bigger adjustment will fall on Stanford. It’s the window of opportunity that Rice bettors are looking for. Grab as many points as you can, play on the Owls.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF MONTH is on Colorado State.

Hopes are high at Colorado State, where the Rams have plenty of talent back from last year’s half-decent (7-6) team and should get a boost from playing their first game in their new stadium. With Alabama and powerful Colorado among the first four opponents, this is almost a must-win situation for CSU. While Oregon State no doubt will try to control the tempo of this one, the Rams hope to make it a shootout behind QB Nick Stevens, who passed for 19 TDs in less than a season in 2016. A strong effort by Stevens in the opener on national TV could result in some Heisman talk and help put CSU on the college football map. Look for Colorado State’s strong defensive front to take a toll on Oregon State’s O-line, which has been re-worked since last season. The Beavers have talent, but most of it is on the offensive side of the ball – not unusual in today’s high-scoring college game. This one has the look and feel of a field-goal game, with CSU having a slight edge at home in its new digs, which has the awkward name Sonny Lubick Field at Colorado State University in a nod to the school’s former longtime coach.

Good luck...Larry