My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is the under Warriors/Cavaliers (9:00 EST).

Analysis posted at least six hours before game time.

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (9:00 EST).

I took the Cavs in Game 1 and lost badly. I took the Cavs in Game 2 and lost badly. I’m taking the Cavaliers in Game 3 as well and while I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can.

The addage: “Don’t underestimate the heart of a champion,” is pretty apt in this situation as far as I’m concerned. It’s do-or-die for LeBron James and company, as clearly a 3-0 hole against these 2017 Warriors would simply be too much overcome. And for me, that’s what this pick comes down to, as I’m expecting the defending champs to risk life and limb tonight to secure a victory.

The difference in this series so far hasn’t been the superstars on each side. James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love have all played well for Cleveland and Golden State has been getting big time production from its three stars as well in Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. 

The difference has been the bench production. Golden State’s role players have to this point absolutely domianted their counterparts. But with the shift in venue, I think that major factor is about to change.

And that’s going to be the difference for James, Irving and Love, over their three all star counterparts.

I’ll point out as well that the Warriors are just 7-8 ATS this year when playing on two days rest, while Cleveland is 3-1 ATS in its last four in the same position.

Grab as many points as you can, play on the Cavaliers.

Good luck…Larry

This is a 10* SIDE OF THE MONTH on the Cleveland Cavaliers (8:00 EST).

I played Cleveland in Game 1 and felt pretty good about the pick heading into half. LeBron James looked strong and the Cavaliers were only down by five.

But Golden State was able to slow down James in the second half and unfortunately, no one else was really able to step up. Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving both had decent outings, but not spectacular.

For Cleveland to beat Golden State, James needs both Love and Irving to play spectacular every night. He also needs his bench to give him some support, as the Warriors’ reserves drastically outplayed their counterparts.

Am I suggesting to you to “sprinkle a little on the money line” as well? Of course not. I simply feel this is too many points to be giving up to the defending champs, as I expect coach Tyrone Lou to make adjustments.

I’ll point out as well that Cleveland has performed well for bettors in this spot over the last couple of years, going 6-4 ATS in its last ten when trailing in a playoff series, while Golden State has struggled in this position by going just 6-8 ATS this season when playing with two days rest.

Grab as many points as you can, play on the Cavaliers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* LEGEND is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (9:00 EST).

I’m with Golden State head coach Steve Kerr on this series. How come the Warriors are such massive favs to win it all? Cleveland is the defending champ and it’s stacked top to bottom with talent.

It’s also led by the single best player on the planet in LeBron James. Am I saying the Cavs are going to win this series? I am not. Am I saying that Cleveland is going to win Game 1 outright? Also, I am not.

But I do think that this veteran laden Cavaliers team can at the very least, take this one down to the wire and cover with what I feel to be a very ample spread.

From a situational stand point, this one also sets up extremely well for the Cavaliers, as this is in fact a spot in which Cleveland has performed extremely well in for bettors all season, while this is a position in which the Warriors have struggled in mightily. As note, the Cavs are a perfect 4-0 ATS this year when playing with three or more days rest, while the Warriors are just 3-4 ATS in the same position. 

Both teams have great offenses, but the Warriors are better on that end of the floor. Both teams have adequate defenses, but the Cavaliers are slightly better on that end of the floor. 

I think Cleveland comes to play in Game 1 as it looks to at the very least, get a split in Golden State before heading back to Defend The Land! Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is the under Cavs/Celtics (8:30 EST).

Game 4 fell below the posted number and I’m expecting another lower-scoring affair here as well.

I think this is a great “situational” play, as I simply don’t think that Boston has anything left in the tank.

I actually had a play on the Celtics in their epic outright Game 3 victory. I had a play on the “under” in Game 4. But here I feel that the C’s have finally run out of gas and I expect the determined Cavaliers to clamp down defensively and end this series immediately so as to not prolong it any further as they start to focus on Golden State.

Cleveland rolled through the playoffs, but the Game 3 loss was a big wake up call for the team. To begin with the Cavaliers simply ran the other teams off the court, but now that the postseason has worn on, fatigue is finally starting to set in. 

So from a “situational” stand point, this one definitely sets up as a lower-scoring affair in my opinion.

The numbers also support our play on the “under,” as note that the Cavs have seen the total go under in 15 of their last 27 when leading in a playoff series, while Boston has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of six this year when trailing in a playoff series.

For all the reasons listed above, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

This is a 10* O/U PERFECT STORM on the under Celtics/Cavaliers (8:30 EST).

I had a play on Boston in Game 3. I wish I had it on the money line, but regardless, it was a very sweet victory nonetheless. So far two of three have flown above the posted number in this series, but I think Game 4 sets up as more of a defensive battle.

The Celtics responded well in their first game without star Isaiah Thomas in the line-up, who has been lost for the rest of the playoffs with a hip injury. 

Cleveland had a 21 point lead at half time, but fell apart defensively in the second half. LeBron James had his worst game of the playoffs so far.

Clearly James will be much better tonight, but regardless, Boston will once again be trying its best to slow down “The King.”

Boston’s Marcus Smart had a career night in Game 3, finishing with 27 points. Clearly the Cavs will be blanketing the dynamic guard this evening as well.

So far the Cavs haven’t put a massive emphasis on the defensive end in the playoffs, rather they’ve been running teams off the court with their dynamic offense. However, now that they’ve suffered their first loss and with fatigue finally becoming a factor, I’m expecting the defending champs to put a renewed focus on that end of the court tonight.

The numbers support our play on the “under” as well, as I’ll point out that Boston has seen the total go under the number in five of eight this year off an upset win as an underdog, while Cleveland has seen the total dip below the number in four of its last five in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent.

I think Boston runs out of gas, I think the Cavs control the tempo and I think this one falls under the number once it’s all said and done.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the San Antonio Spurs (9:00 EST).

Will the Warriors stumble like the Cavaliers did last night and lose this one outright? Probably not. But the Spurs won’t be going down without a fight, so while I’ll stop short in calling for the upset, I do think that the home side will play with pride and keep this one competitive until the final moments.

Other than Za Za Pachulia’s injury, there’s nothing much to report about the Warriors. They remain the highest scoring team in the playoffs, while ranked in the middle of the pack defensively. Exactly the same as in the regular season.

The Spurs on the other hand are now ravaged with injury. They lost Tony Parker in Round 1, then Kawhi Leonard in Game 1 of this series. David Lee went down in Game 3 and is out for the remainder of the year as well.

But San Antonio still has weapons in LaMarcus Aldridge and Manu Ginobili. Like the Celtics, one of the main strengh’s of the Spurs is their incredible depth.

I think the Spurs’ effort in this one will be the difference maker in the end. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is the Boston Celtics (8:30 EST).

I got down on this one early (before it was announced that Celtics’ star Isaiah Thomas would be out for the remainder of the playoffs) and have a poor line. But regardless, I still like this play as I expect the undermanned Celtics to fight hard, to keep this one competitive down the stretch and I look for it to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the ample amount of points they’ve been afforded.

Cleveland will look to jump out to an early insurmountable lead, but with the knowledge that Thomas is out, will the Cavs rest some of their starters in the second half? Very likely, as the defending champs can now safely start “looking ahead” to their third straight matchup with the Warriors in the Finals.

I’ll point out though that Boston is still 10-5 ATS this year after a loss by ten points or more, while Cleveland is just 3-4 ATS this season after allowing 90 points or less.

Even with Thomas out, I think the Celtics respond after their historic beatdown loss in Game 2. The Spurs weren’t able to cover last night with their superstar out, but I believe all signs point to Celtics being able to succeed, where San Antonio failed.. Grab as many points as you can.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is the under Warriors/Spurs (9:00 EST).

It’s do-or-die time for the Spurs, who will give it everything they have to try and claw their way back into this series after dropping both in Golden State. 

The Warriors came roaring from behind to take Game 1, 113-111 and then followed it up with a blowout 136-100 victory in Game 2. 

I think this is a great “situational” play, as San Antonio will have to do what it does best if it has any shot at stealing this game outright and that’s play suffocating defense from start to finish. Whether Kawhi Leonard plays or not, I’m expecting the Spurs to put together their best defensive effort of this series so far. 

This one also sets up nicely from a trend based stand point, as note that Golden State has seen the total go under the number in five of eight this year after playing to three or more consecutive “overs,” while San Antonio has seen the total dip below the posted number in three of its last four after playing three consecutive road games.

I don’t think the Warriors are going to shoot 56 percent from the floor again like they did in Game 2. If San Antonio is going down, it’s not going down without a fight. All signs point to this one sneaking under the number once it’s all said and done.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is the under Cavs/Celtics (8:30 EST).

I played the under 219.5 in Game 1 and the team’s would combine to post 221. It was a tough loss for sure. 

A big third quarter was the difference, as the teams combined for 40 points by the six-minute mark after the break. The Cavs looked fresh, while the C’s looked gassed.

But with Game 1 now in the books, I don’t expect these team’s to put together another third-quarter effort like they had in Game 1 and I look for this one to fall below the number once it’s all said and done. 

Clearly slowing down LeBron James will be Boston’s No. 1 priority, he is averaging 34.8 points, nine boards and 7.1 assists in the postseason. 

Will Cleveland center Tristan Thompson have back-to-back monster games? The big man exploded for a career playoff-high 20 points, going 7 of 7 from the floor. In fact, swingman Kevin Love also posted a career playoff-high 32 points to go along with 12 boards.

Both are capable, but i just don’t see it happening in consecutive contests. 

Boston needs to control the tempo of this game if it has any shot at avoiding the 2-0 sweep in front of the home town crowd. But how much gas do the Celtics have left after their seven-game series win over the Wizards? 

Boston can’t expect to turn this series into a “track meet” and beat the Cavs, so look for plenty of half-court sets on the offensive end for the home side this evening. 

I’ll also point out that Cleveland has seen the total go under the number in two of its last three after scoring 113 points or more, while Boston has seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of ten when trailing in a playoff series. 

This number is just a little high, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is the under Cavs/Celtics (8:30 EST).

Cleveland hasn’t played since May 7th. So will rest lead to rust? Probably not, but it’s not too hard to imagine the Cavaliers coming out a bit flat to begin this game and that’s likely all we need to push this one under this sky-high number.

Boston could be poised for a bit of a letdown here itself after its exhausting seven game series win over the Wizards. Note that the Cavs took three of four regualr season meetings this year between the teams.

It’s also intereting to note that in the Celtics’ win over Washington, it was the home team that won every game in that series. Boston has averaged 107.1 PPG in the postseason (the Cavs have averaged 114.5), but so far it’s been the Celtics’ defense which has been the standout, ranked 8th in conceding 103.4 per game. 

I’ll point out as well that Cleveland has seen the total go under the number in 14 of 23 this year against good offensive teams which score 106-plus points per contest, while Boston has seen the total dip below the posted number in interestingly 20 of 35 this year against poor defensive teams which allow 106-plus points per game.

I think we’re going to see a slower-paced Game 1, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is the under Spurs/Warriors (9:00 EST).

The Spurs had a 20 point lead at half time in Game 1, but Kawhi Leonard was injured in the third quarter and San Antonio would predictably fall apart in the Warriors’ eventual 113-111 victory.

The Spurs rolled to a massive victory in Game 6 over the Houston Rockets in the last round without Leonard in the line-up, but I think San Antonio will struggle with offensive consistency today. Their main option now will be big man Marcus Aldridge, who has been playing a lot better of late. 

But the Warriors know this and they have a deep/talented bench of guys to throw at him all game long. Golden State has a golden opportunity to send a real dagger into the hearts of Spurs fans tonight with a resounding perfomance and before the series shifts to San Antonio.

Both teams have been playing to higher-scoring affairs in the playoffs, as San Antonio has seen the O/U go 10-2, while Golden State has seen it go 6-3.

But I think Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals definitely sets up as a lower-scoring affair. San Antonio can now ill afford to get into a “track meet” with the Warriors and expect to win this one, so the visitors will be looking to slow down the pace and control the tempo. And that means half-court sets on offense. 

Also note that despite the high-scoring Game 1 victory, the Warriors have seen the total go under the number in nine of their last 13 conference final games, while San Antonio has seen the total dip below the posted number in two of its last three after giving up 112 points or more.

For all the reasons listed above, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Boston Celtics (8:00 EST).

This has been a back-and-forth series. So far the home team has won every game “straight-up,” but the Celtics were able to cover the spread in Game 6 despite the setback.

I think the Celtics are the better overall team and have a clear advantage in this situation on their home floor and in the end, I expect them to find a way to get the job done.

Washington shot only 43 percent from the floor and was just 5 of 24 from range in Game 6, while also hitting only 13 of 21 from the charity stripe. Bradley Beal was a standout with 33 points, while John Wall added 26.

Boston had a chance to wrap this up in six games, but was sunk by the last second shot by Wall. Avery Bradley and Isaiah Thomas had 27 points apiece in the setback.

I’ll point out though that Washington is just 1-5 ATS in its last six on the road and 0-6 ATS in its last six road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, while Boston is 4-0 ATS in its last four at home and 6-1 ATS in its last seven following an ATS victory. 

Boston fought tooth and nail for the entire regular season so that it could ensure home court throughout the playoffs and in pivotal Game 7 scenarios just like this. So here we are. I think the Celtics pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover, lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* LEGEND is on the San Antonio Spurs (3:30 EST).

If the Spurs have any hopes of pulling off an upset in this series, I think they obviously have to gain a split in Golden State. And of the two games, I believe Game 1 is the best opportunity for an underdog to steal one. 

Last night I had a play on the +190 Senators in their Game 1 upset over the Penguins in the NHL. While I will stop short in calling for an outright upset in this one, I do expect San Antonio to throw its best punch in Game 1 and I look for it to keep this one competitive until the final moments (remember, San Antonio started the season off with an opening night win in Golden State this year.)

The Spurs last played on Thursday, while the Warriors have been off since Monday. Will rest lead to rust? Probably not, but the extra few days off has also been beneficial for San Antonio, as top scorer Kawhi Leonard who sat out the Game 6 blowout over the Rockets, has been given the green light to go in this one.

Clearly it won’t be easy. The Warriors are favored for a reason as they have an offense which is almost impossible to stop. The Spurs though did completely stop the Rockets’ James Harden in Game 6 though, holding him to a season-low ten points. 

San Antonio has a flexible defense that’s built around trying to stop Golden State in the playoffs. So here we go. The Spurs had the No. 1 defense in the regular season and the Warriors had the No. 1 offense. 

I’ll point out that San Antonio is 20-15 ATS this year following a win by ten points or more, while Golden State is just 2-3 ATS this season when playing with three or more days rest.

Surely the Spurs could have run the table on the Jazz as well. And likely the Rockets could have taken at least one game from the Warriors if these teams had switched second round opponents.

Regardless, I think San Antonio is not getting nearly enough respect here. Play on the Spurs.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is the under Celtics/Wizards (8:00 EST).

I took Boston in Game’s 1 and 2 of this series before then taking the Wizards in Game’s 3 and 4. I’d then lose however with the Wizards in Game 5, as Boston bounced back big time in front of the home town crowd.

Will this pattern continue in Game 6? I’m skeptical, but regardless, I think the conditions are right for a slower-paced under this evening. 

Boston is ready to take on the Cavaliers, but it’ll have to win in the nation’s capital tonight, or risk a winner takes all Game 7 back at home. 

The Celtics shot 52.9 percent from the floor in Game 5 and I simply can’t see the now desperate Wizards playing so horribly on the defensive end again. Washington’s entire season boils down to this moment. 

Boston though played smothering defense in Game 5, holding the Wizards to only 38.5 percent from the floor, including just 7 of 29 from range. The C’s will now look to duplicate that performance in Game 6.

I’ll also point out that Boston has in fact seen the total go under the number in 18 of 30 this year against good offensive teams which score 106 plus points per contest, while Washington has seen the total dip below the posted number in two of its last three after allowing 115 points or more.

When you add it all up, I think this number is just a little high. Play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* O/U 33-Club Play is the under Spurs/Rockets (8:00 EST).

I had a play on the “over” in Game 5 and obviously feel a bit fortunate to win that one as the team’s would need overtime to barely push the total above the closing number. 

It seemed like the “over” would be a lock after three quarters, but the teams combined for only 31 points in the fourth frame. 

San Antonio is on the verge of clinching this series and will look to once again slow down James Harden as much as possible. Harden is averaging 30.3 PPG in the playoffs.

The Spurs had the lead for most of the game (86-85 after three quarters) last time out, but trailed by five with just 2:34 to play. It was back and forth the entire way and eventually led to Spurs’ veteran Manu Ginobili making a huge block on Harden at the buzzer in OT.

There’s a lot of pressure on both of these teams. 

For Harden and company, it’s the same old story, they’re viewed as not being talented, deep and strong enough to seriously contend in the West and until they can get over the hump, they’ll continue to carry that monkey on their collective backs.

For the Spurs it’s an entirely different kind of pressure. A legendary head coach which is trying desperately to match his remaining pieces together and produce a winning result. San Antonio though has looked old and susceptible at times in the postseason, with still yet unproven big man LaMarcus Aldridge trying to fill some very big shoes and the very real absence of veteran point guard Tony Parker right now.

I think the pressure is getting to everyone in this series and the fourth quarter of Game 5 showed that. Play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Washignton Wizards (8:00 EST).

I played on Boston in Game’s 1 and 2 and then backed Washington in Game’s 3 and 4. So far home floor advantage has meant everything in this series, but I think that changes tonight.

The Wizards made some key adjustments over the last two games that I think the Celtics will continue to struggle with. 

And I also believe that Boston star Isaiah Thomas is much more mentally burnt than even he realizes. 

Thomas’ sister was tragically killed in a car accident the night before his first round series with the Bulls. The Celtics went on to lose the first two games of that series at home, but then Thomas was able to recover a bit from the initial shock and he used his anger to fuel his team to six straight victories.

Boston needed two epic come-from behind efforts in Game’s 1 and 2 of this series, but with Thomas once again starting to struggle, I have a hard time seeing the C’s keeping pace with the high-flying Wizards in Game 5. 

I’ll point out as well that Washington is a near-perfect 8-1 ATS in its last nine when playing on two days rest, while Boston is just 7-19 ATS in its last 26 in the same situation.

I think the duo of John Wall and Bradley Beal continues to be just too much for the Celtics to handle and while I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. It’s a perfect storm of factor working in favor of of the Wizards.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is the over Rockets/Spurs (8:00 EST).

This seven game series in all tied up at 2-2 after the Rockets soard to a 125-104 victory in Game 4 (I had Houston in that one). Both teams have looked great at times and poor in others so far this series, but in this pivotal Game 5 matchup, I’m expecting both sides to push the pace from start to finish and I look for this total to eclipse the posted number as it comes down the stretch.

Houston will look to duplicate its Game 4 performance here. The Rockets were running from the opening tip until the final horn. So far Houston is third among postsason teams in scoring offense with 111.4 per game. Houston though is ranked 11th in scoring defense in conceding 105.3. James Harden has been leading the nightly charge with 30 points plus 5.2 boards and 8.4 assists per game in the postseason.

The Spurs have been averaging 105.5 PPG in the playoffs and allowed an average of 101.7. San Antonio looked lost and old in Game 4 and clearly the team is going to have to adjust on the fly again. Keep your eyes on Kawhi Leonard, he’s averaging a team-high 28.4 points, seven boards and 1.7 steals per game in the playoffs. 

I’ll point out that the over is 9-2 in the Rockets last 11 Conferece Semi games, 4-1 in their last five following a SU victory and 5-2 in their last seven on the road, while the Spurs have seen the total sail above the posted number in their last six games following an ATS loss.

The over has also gone 6-1-1 in these team’s last seven games played in San Antonio.

I think the conditions are right for another high-scoring affair, play the over.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Western Conference SIDE OF THE WEEK is on the Golden State Warriors (9:00 EST).

Just like the Cavaliers did to the Raptors last night, I’m expecting the Warriors to put the Jazz out of their misery this evening.

Golden State is in the drivers seat and will be wanting to match Cleveland with the perfect 8-0 start. Kevin Durant was a monster in Game 3, finishing with 38 points in the 102-91 victory. 

Even without Durant in the lineup near the end of the regular season, the Warriors cruised to 14 straight victories. None were even close. 

Golden State has yet to win a game in this series in blowout fashion, but I think the deflated Jazz are ripe for the picking here.

Gordon Hayward was a standout for the Jazz in Game 3 with 29 points and big man Rudy Gobert contributed 21, but they didn’t get much help after that.

The numbers/trends definitely support us today as well, as Golden State is 8-0 ATS its last eight on the road and 10-2-1 ATS in its last 13 when playing on one days rest, while Utah is just 1-4-1 ATS in its last six in front of the home town crowd.

The Warriors have been toying with the Jazz to this point in my opinion and I’m expecting the biggest rout of the series in Game 4. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* LEGEND is on the Houston Rockets (9:00 EST).

The Rockets crushed the Spurs by 27 points in Game 1, but San Antonio has bounced back to take the next two. 

I think Houston is going to rally in Game 4 though as it’ll look to push the pace from start to finish and run San Antonio off the court.

This is essentially a “do-or-die” for the Rockets, as a 3-1 deficit would likely just be too much for the team to overcome, especially with all of the experience on the Spurs.

So this is it. Houston will be leaving everything it has on the floor tonight. 

Clearly this one means just as much to the Spurs, but I’ll point out that they’re just 4-7 ATS in their last 11 when leading in a playoff series and just 2-3 ATS this year off an upset win as an underdog.

And note, the Rockets have performed extremely well for bettors in this spot this season, going 9-3 ATS in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent and 11-6 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite.

Despite the Game 3 setback, Houston is still 3-1 on its home floor this year. I think the desperate home side is the correct call tonight. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Washington Wizards (6:30 EST).

I played Boston in Game’s 1 and 2 and then backed Washington in Game 3. For a number of different reasons, I think the home side will also take Game 4.

Clearly “home court” is going to play a significant role in this series. After two opening losses to Chicago, Boston rattled off six straight wins and looked primed for a letdown in Game 3. 

The Wizards had double digit leads in both Game’s 1 and 2, so Washington was finally able to play a complete four-quarters in Game 3 and suffice it to say, I think the teams carries over that confidence and momentum in Game 4. 

The Celtics have been playing extremely “emotional” in these playoffs and that can be very draining. Isaiah Thomas’ sister was tragically killed just before Boston’s opening series with the Bulls and the Celtics’ superstar has used her death to drive him to this point. However, I think Thomas is gassed both physically and mentally right now.

The Wizards’ Kelly Oubre Jr. has been suspended for this game after he body checked Kelly Olynyk in the second quarter. Washington vowed to be more physicaly in Game 3 and it certainly was, as there were three ejections and 52 personal fouls overall. 

Washington did a great job on the boards, winning 50-38 while also knocking down 22 of 25 from the charity stripe. 

I’ll point out that Boston is just 7-18 ATS in its last 28 when playing on two days rest, while Washington is 7-1 ATS in its last eight in the same position.

It’s a perfect storm of factors working in favor of the home side, play on the Wizards.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is the under Warriors/Jazz (8:30 EST).

The Warriors took both games at home pretty easily, although they didn’t manage to cover the spread in either.

I played the “over” in Game 1 and lost and then took the “over” in Game 2 and won. I think with the shift in venue that we’re going to see another lower-scoring affair in Game 3 though.

From a situational stand point, this one sets up perfectly for an “under” in my opinion, as Utah will have to get back to basics and do what it does best if it has any shot whatsoever at scoring an upset tonight. And that means playing smothering, suffocating, relentless defense. 

The Warriors were the highest scoring team in the regular season, but the Jazz owned the No. 1 defense.

Not only does this one set up great from a “situational” stand point, but the numbers/trends also support the “under,” as Golden State has seen the total go under the number in 30 of 48 this year after scoring 115 points or more, while Utah has seen the total dip below the posted number in three of its last four following a loss by ten points or more.

And that’s what this pick comes down to for me. A venue shift, a desperate Utah team that needs to control the tempo and dictate the flow and some extremely strong “under” trends that simply can’t be ignored.

It’s a perfect storm of factors, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is the under Spurs/Rockets (9:30 EST).

It’s a big game obviously, Game 3 is always a big one. These teams are deadlocked at one apiece and with the series shifting to Houston, I think we’re going to see more of a defensive battle than what some may think.

The Spurs’ big win in Game 2 came at a cost, as venerable point guard Tony Parker was lost for the season to injury. One now has to wonder if Parker has played his last game in the NBA?

Obvioulsy the loss isn’t that monumental, as the team’s core players remain in tact. The Spurs dominated the glass in Game 2 by a 47-32 margin and Kawhi Leonard led the charge with 34 points.

So far San Antonio has been averaging 106 PPG in the playoffs, while conceding 100. Leonard has led the way with 30.3 points, 6.8 boards and 1.68 steals per game. Big man LaMarcus Aldridge has posted 13.5 points and 7.3 boards per game. 

The Rockets have averaged 112.3 PPG and given up 105.9 in the playoffs. James Harden has led the way with 28.4 points, 5.7 boards and 8.4 assists per game. 

San Antonio has been playing to some higher-scoring affairs in the playoffs, as it’s seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of eight postseason contests thus far. I’ll point out though that the Spurs have seen the total go under the number in ten of their last 16 against good offensive teams which average 106-plus points per contest.

Also note that Houston has seen the total go under the number in 21 of 32 this year after allowing 115 points or more.

I think fatigue plays a factor in Game 3. Play the under.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Raptors (7:00 EST).

The public has been cleaning up in this series, as the Cavs and the “over” have both gone on to cash with ease over the first two games.

Kyle Lowry may be out of this game, but I think the Raptors have a fantastic opportunity to steal one from the defending champs and get right back into this series.

So far it’s been fairly “easy” for the Cavs, who steamrolled the Pacers in four games in their opening round matchup, only to then also dominate the first two games against Toronto.

If ever Cleveland was going to have a “letdown,” then this is it. The Cavs have been playing at an extremely high level for six straight games and now hit the road to face a Raptors teach which is in “do-or-die” mode.

The same sort of situation occured last night with the Celtics. I had played Boston in Game’s 1 and 2 of its series against Washington, but came back with the Wizards in Game 3 last night. 

The C’s had won six in a row after dropping the first two to the Bulls in their opening round, but finally looked primed for a letdown in Game 3 after the extended stretch of high-level play.

The exact same thing applies to Cleveland tonight. 

I’ll point out that the Cavs are just 9-13 ATS this year after three or more consecutive SU victories, while the Raptors are 7-4 ATS after playing three consecutive road games and 3-1 ATS in their last four after allowing 115 points or more.

I think the dynamic of this series shifts dramatically tonight. Play on Toronto.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple PLay is on the under Cavs/Raptors (7:00 EST).

I also have a play on the Raptors. In the analysis for that pick i write:

The public has been cleaning up in this series, as the Cavs and the “over” have both gone on to cash with ease over the first two games.

Kyle Lowry may be out of this game, but I think the Raptors have a fantastic opportunity to steal one from the defending champs and get right back into this series.

So far it’s been fairly “easy” for the Cavs, who steamrolled the Pacers in four games in their opening round matchup, only to then also dominate the first two games against Toronto.

If ever Cleveland was going to have a “letdown,” then this is it. The Cavs have been playing at an extremely high level for six straight games and now hit the road to face a Raptors teach which is in “do-or-die” mode.

The same sort of situation occured last night with the Celtics. I had played Boston in Game’s 1 and 2 of its series against Washington, but came back with the Wizards in Game 3 last night. 

The C’s had won six in a row after dropping the first two to the Bulls in their opening round, but finally looked primed for a letdown in Game 3 after the extended stretch of high-level play.

The exact same thing applies to Cleveland tonight. 

Clearly the Raptors can ill afford to turn this one into another “track meet” and hope to beat the Cavs. Toronto will be looking to control the tempo of this one and I think that means a slower, more methodically paced affair in Game 3. And a slower game means less shots and less shots means less points.

This number is just a little high, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* O/U 33-Club Play is the over Jazz/Warriors (10:30 EST).

I played the “over” in Game 1 and came up short. I expect a better effort from the Jazz offensively tonight though and look for this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch.

Utah’s late rally wasn’t enough in the 106-94 setback. Gordon Hayward had just 12 points in Game 1. I think he’s going to get back on track with a much better effort tonight.

Utah had just come off a tough seven-game series win over the Clippers, so some regression in the first game, especially against the well rested Warriors, had to be expected.

The Warriors dismantled the Blazers in four games and will once again be looking to send a statement tonight. Golden State shot 48.8 percent from the floor in Game 1.

The Jazz hit nine three-pointers, but the Warriors hit just seven. Golden State made up for it by forcing 14 turnovers, compared to just seven for the Jazz.

I think Utah will be more mentally prepared tonight and with each team pushing the pace, the correct call is indeed on the over in this one.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Washington Wizards (8:00 EST).

I played on Boston in Game’s 1 and 2, but with their backs against the wall and essentially in a do-or-die scenario, I think the Wizards play their best game of the series and claw their way back into it.

Washington had its chance in Game 2, but would eventually fall apart down the stretch, losing 129-119 in OT on Tuesday. 

Boston has been on an absolute tear since Game 3 of its opening round series against the Bulls by winning six straight. That’s an awful lot of high-intensity, focused games in a row and suffice it to say, I think Game 3 sets up as a classic “letdown” spot for the visitors, who I think will finally be caught a little “flat-footed” tonight.

And clearly for the Wizards, this is a “must win” game, as a 3-0 deficit would likely be too much for the team to overcome. 

I’ll point out that Boston is already just 5-15 ATS this year after three or more consecutive SU victories and only 9-11 ATS after a victory by ten points or more, while Washington is 3-1 ATS in its last four after allowing 115 points or more.

The Wizards are fighting for their playoff lives, while the Celtics are looking to catch their breath after an extended streak of high-level play. When you add it all up, the correct call is indeed on the home side in this one. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK is on the Toronto Raptors (7:05 EST).

I played the Raptors in Game 1 and obviously came up short. I think Toronto though can make adjustments and keep Game 2 a lot closer than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe.

Am I going to suggest to you to “sprinkle a little on the money line” as well? No I am not.

Cleveland took Game 1, 116-105 on Monday. Last year the Cavs knocked off the Raptors in six games in the Eastern Conference Finals. If Toronto is going to “get over the hump,” it has to figure out a way to win in Cleveland.

Kyle Lowry was a bright spot with 20 points and 11 assists. Clearly head coach Wayne Casey is going to have to make some adjustments.

The Cavs came out with a lot of energy, but weren’t overly effecient in Game 1, shooting 45.9 percent from the floor, including 14 of 34 from range. LeBron James dominated with 35 points and ten boards.

I’ll point out though that the Raptors have performed well in this spot for bettors, going 5-1 ATS in their last six following a straight up loss and 4-1 ATS in their last five following a SU loss of more than ten points, while the Cavs are interestingly 0-4 ATS in their last four when playing on one days rest.

Toronto has an infamous reputation now in dropping Game 1 of its recent playoff series the last few years as Monday’s setback made it ten straight Game 1 losses in a row.

The Raptors bounced back against the Bucks in Game 2 in their opening series and as I stated off the top, I think they’ll be much more competitive tonight as well. I’m grabbing the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is the over Jazz/Warriors (10:30 EST).

They say defense wins championships. That addage is true in many cases, but I’ve always thought that it pertained more to the gridiron than to the hardwood. 

It’s the league’s No. 1 defense going up against the NBA’s No. 1 offense on Tuesday night and in my opinion, I believe the overall “situation” lends itself to a higher-scoring shootout.

And that’s because I’m expecting the well rested Warriors to send a clear message to the Jazz, to the Western Conference and most importantly, to LeBron James and the Cavaliers that they’re still the team that needs to be respected and feared the most. 

Utah pulled off the upset over the Clippers because, most would argue, LA star Blake Griffin was injured in Game 3 and was lost for the rest of the season. The Jazz likely would not have won that series if Griffin remained healthy.

But regardless, Utah has moved onto the second round after a gruelling seven game opening series and suffice it to say, I think its normally stout defense is going to be predictably “gassed” tonight in what will be a very raucous arena.

And I’ll point out that the Jazz have in fact seen the total go over the number in four of seven this year off an upset win as an underdog and in 16 of 23 after a win by ten points or more.

And note that Golden State has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 16 of 28 already this season as a home fav of 12.5 points or more.

For all the reasons listed above, play the over.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* LEGEND is on the Boston Celtics (8:00 EST).

I played the Celtics in Game 1 and after a slow start, Boston would put the foot on the gas and pull away for the eventual 123-111 victory. I think the C’s come out much more prepared from the start tonight though and look for them to once again find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

Washington is crushed, it had a 22-5 lead at one point in the first quarter, but things went South quickly after that. The Wizards struggled with the inside-outside game of the Celtics and the dynamic guard duo of John Wall and Bradley Beal were effectively “shut down” by Boston’s Isaiah Thomas and company. 

The Celtics shot a blistering 51.1 percent from the floor and hit 19 of 39 from range. Thomas was a standout with 33 points and nine assists.

And I’ll point out that Washington is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against teams with a winning percentage above. 600, while the Celtics are 4-0 ATS In their last four following an ATS/SU victory.

“Momentum” is a very real, almost tangible factor in the playoffs and it’s one which I believe the books often have a hard time properly quantifying into a line. And that’s the case here I think. 

The Wizards’ suspect defense comes back to haunt them again in Game 2, play on Boston.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Antonio Spurs (9:35 EST).

The home side has to be feeling pretty confident here as it took three of the four regular season meetings from the Rockets this year.

Houston outmatched OKC in its 4-1 series victory over Oklahoma City, however San Antonio clearly presents a much bigger challenge.

The Spurs are loaded with talent from top to bottom and can hurt you on the inside and outside. San Antonio has experience, from head coach Greg Popovich, to Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. 

The Spurs also have an MVP candidate to rival the Rockets’ James Harden in Kawhi Leonard, who is a much better two-way player than Harden. In fact, Leonard has been defensive player of the year, so there is no comparison whatsoever in that regards.

And in the postseason, playing defense does help of course. San Antonio had a top 3 defense in the regular season and I think it will prove to be a difference maker here today as well. The Spurs have the talent to slow down Harden and have the muscle down low to have their way on the glass and offensive end.

I’ll point out that Housont is just 2-8 ATS In its last ten following an ATS loss, while San Antonio is 7-1 ATS in its last eight when playing on three or more days rest.

I’m expecting a rout, lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the the under Rockets/Spurs (9:35 EST).

Houston looked surprisingly good on the defensive end in its 4-1 opening series victory over the Thunder.

The Spurs struggled with their offense at times against the Grizzlies, but ultimately their strong defensive play and consistent attack proved too much for Memphis in the six game series victory.

One of my 8* picks of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Spurs and in the analysis for that selection, I mention that I think Kawhi Leonard of San Antonio is a tough matchup for Houston. Leonard is probably the best two-way player in the NBA.

Houston’s James Harden is an unbelievable talent, but clearly he’s unable to play defense at an elite level, it’s his one and only weakness. 

For me, this is a “situational” play, as I believe San Antonio will want to slow this one down from the start and control the tempo, as it will look to avoid turning this series into a “track meet” (a pace which would clearly favor Houston.)

The Spurs had a top 3 defense in the regular season and note that they’ve seen the total go under the number in 16 of 28 this year against good offensive teams which average 106 points per game.

I’ll also point out that the Rockets have seen the total dip below the posted number in four of six this year when playing with three or more days rest.

For all the reasons listed above, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Raptors (7:05 EST).

Toronto will look to steal Game 1 of this Eastern Conference semi-finals against rival Cleveland. The Cavs took three of four in the regular season series.

This is a big time revenge scenario for the Raptors, who lost the Eastern Conference Finals 4-2 to the Cavs just last year. 

Toronto had a top five offense in the regular season, but the series against the Bucks was a slower-paced one. The Raptors averaged only 93.8 PPG over the six game series win, but they conceded just 93.2. DeMar DeRozan led the way with 23.5 points and 5.5 boards per game. 

Big man Serge Ibaka put up 12.8 points, 8.3 boards and 2.33 blocks per game and is expected to be a difference maker in this series as well.

Cleveland averaged 112.8 PPG against Indiana in its four game opening series sweep, while allowing 108.8 in the process. LeBron James was a standout with 32.8 points, 9.8 boards, nine assits, three steals and two blocks per game average.

I’ll point out though that Toronto is 4-0 ATS in its last four against a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, while Cleveland is 0-4 ATS in its last four at home and 0-2-2 ATS in its last four home games against a team with a winning road record.

Cleveland’s four-game series victory came by a combined total of 16 points over Indiana, with six being the largest margin of victory. James looked fantastic, but Kevin Love struggled in Game’s 3 and 4 and the bench has also stumbled with production. 

I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, but in the end I’m going to grab the points. Toronto needs to make a statement and there’s no better moment than right now. 

Good luck…Larry

My 8* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the over Jazz/Clippers (3:30 EST).

It’s a pivotal Game 7 showdown and in my opinion, all signs point to a higher-scoring shootout. LA is at home and will be looking to push the pace of this one from start to finish. The Jazz are going to be forced to match tempo. 

The total has since dropped a couple of points from when I first made this selection, but regardless, I still love this play as I think the situation definitely lends itself to a faster paced affair. 

LA lost Blake Griffin, but it rallied on the road in Game 6 to gut out the 98-93 victory. The total stayed “under” the number in that one by a single bucket. 

So far Utah allows 98 and concedes 98 in the playoffs. LA has averaged 98 and allowed 98 as well. These teams are very evenly matched and much more so now that Griffin is out of the equation.

I think the Jazz have more than just a “punchers chance” in this one as well. The stage is set for Gordon Hayward to put his team on his back and take it to the next level. Hayward continues to get solid support from Joe Johnson (16.7 points in the playoffs) and Rudy Gobert (10.3). 

I’ll point out that Utah has seen the total go over the number in three of its last four off an upset loss as a favorite, while LA has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of 15 this year against good defensive clubs which allow 98 points or less per game.

For all the reasons listed above, play the over.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Boston Celtics (1:05 EST).

Washington advanced to the second round by knocking off Atlanta in six games, including a 115-99 road win in Game 6. Boston also won its opening round series with the Bulls 4-2, including a 105-83 victory in Game 6 on the road. These teams split four meetings in the regular season.

John Wall and Bradley Beal had their way for the most part with the Hawks, with Wall going for 42 points and eight assists in the Game 6 victory. But now the team faces a much stiffer test in my opinion, as I think the Celtics match up much better against Wall and Beal. 

The Wizards have been poor on the defensive end, conceding 105.5 PPG in the playoffs. The Celtics have been conceding just 96.5 in the postseason. 

Isaiah Thomas has gotten progressively better with each game since Game 3 (was blindsided by the death of his sister just before the series started) and so too has everyone around him, including Jae Crowder (12 points, 5.3 boards in the playoffs), Avery Bradley (16 points, four bouards, three assists) and Al Horford (15.3 points, 8.3 boards and 6.5 assists). 

I’ll point out though that the Wizards are just 1-4 ATS in thier last five road games against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, whil Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a SU victory.

The Wizards looked great at home in their opening series, but struggled on the road, going 3-0 at the Verizon Venter and just 1-2 away from friendly confines. 

The C’s dropped those first two games at home to the Bulls, but that was under extraordinary conditions, a factor that no one could have anticipated. Since then though, Boston has fully recovered and note that it did go 30-11 at home in the regular season, while the Wizards were just 19-22 on the road.

I’m laying the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is the over Clippers/Jazz (10:35 EST).

LA doesn’t win games with its defense. Utah does though, ranked No. 1 in the league in that department. The Jazz don’t usually “shoot the lights” out either. 

The Clippers’ backs are against the wall and they’re fighting an uphill battle on the road without major contributor Blake Griffin to help, but they won’t be going down without a fight. 

LA has to take control of the tempo/pace of this game if it has any hopes of pushing it to a decisive Game 7. So that means taking the Jazz out of their “comfort zone,” which is typically a slower paced affair with a lot of trapping and half court sets on the offensive end. 

This is unchartered territory for most of the Jazz and they’ll be equally as hyped to just end the series here and now and get ready for the next round. In my opinion, the overall “situation” definitely lends itself to a faster paced Game 6.

Also note that LA has in fact seen the total go over the number in four of its last five off an upset loss as a favorite, while Utah has seen the total sail above the posted number in four of six this season off an upset win as an underdog.

For all the reasons listed above, play the over.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* LEGEND is on the San Antonio Spurs (9:35 EST).

The best player in this series has been Kawhi Leonard for the Spurs, so far he’s averaged 31 points per game on 57 percent shooting.

I’m expecting the best player in this series to lead his team to a convincing series clinching victory on the road tonight.

San Antonio steam rolled its way to two big wins at home, but then the Grizzlies responded in kind on their home floor in Game’s 3 and 4. 

The Spurs once again defended their home court in Game 5 with a resounding 116-103 victory.

So far home court has played a big part in this series, but I think that trend ends this evening.

The Spurs are shooting a combined 48.3 percent from the floor, as Memphis’ normally stout defense has started to show signs of fatigue. Experience, depth and leadership (Popovich) all count at this point of a series.

I’ll point out that San Antonio is 10-4 ATS this year after scoring 115 points or more, while Memphis is just 1-3 ATS in its last four following a loss by ten points or more.

The Grizzlies put up a much bigger fight than expected, but all signs point to a Spurs blowout. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Celtics (8:30 EST).

I’ve successfully played on and against each of these teams so far in this series.

So far in this series, home floor has not been an advantage, with Chicago taking Game’s 1 and 2 and the Celtics returning the favor in Game’s 3 and 4. 

Isaiah Thomas was blind-sided by the death of his sister just before the series started, so it was a great situation to take advantage of in the first two games. But as the series wore on, Thomas was able to adjust and cope and clearly he looked a lot better on the road.

I think Thomas though continues his dominant play and has his best game of the playoffs thus far. 

Chicago got big production from Rajon Rondo in the first two games, but he injured his wrist and missed the next two. He’s also been ruled out for Game 5. Clearly it’s a big blow for the chemistry of the Bulls’ offense.

Thomas had 33 points in Sunday’s 104-95 victory:  “I just try to play the same way no matter who’s out there on the floor (defensively),” Thomas said. “I have a job to do, and that’s to score the basketball, make plays for others and be the leader.”

I’ll point out that Chicago is already just 5-10 ATS this year in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent, while Boston is 3-1 ATS in its last four after holding an opponent to 96 points or less.

Look for Boston to continue its surge and lay the points with confidence.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is the under Hawks/Wizards (6:00 EST).

Suffice it to say, it’s a big game. So far home floor has played a big part in this series, with each team taking both games on its own floor. Atlanta most recently pulled away for a 111-101 victory at home on Monday. 

The Hawks have been playing over their heads on the offensive end so far through the first four games, averaging 108.8 PPG. Atlanta only averaged 102.3 PPG in the regular season. 

Washington ranked in the top ten in scoring and the bottom third on the defensive end. 

Atlanta made adjustments on the defensive end in Game’s 3 and 4 and we’re expecting a duplicate game-plan here (note that Washington scored 223 points combined in the first two games and only 199 combined over the next two). 

I’ll point out that Atlanta has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five following a win by ten points or more, while Washington has seen the total dip below the posted number in two of its last three following a loss by ten points or more.

I think these teams play an extremely aggressive game and I look for this total to sneak below the number once it’s all said and done.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Wizrds (6:00 EST).

As I mentioned in my writeup on the “under” in the same game, this contest clearly means a lot to both teams.

So far each team has dominated on its home floor, with Washington winning 114-107 and 109-101 and Atlanta prevailing 116-98 and 111-101.

I think the home floor advantage trend continues in Game 5. The Hawks are averaging 108.8 PPG in the playoffs, which is over six points higher than their regular season average. 

Atlanta though is just 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road, while Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home. Washington was one of the best shooting teams in the regular season and now that the series is back at the Verizon Center, I think the Wizards will rebound.

Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* O/U 33-Club Play is the under Thunder/Rockets (8:00 EST).

These teams are very similar, in that they like to push the pace from start to finish, while defense often takes a “back seat.” The Rockets rallied for a 113-109 road win in Game 4 to take a 3-1 series lead last time out, the total staying below the posted number in that one.

With a chance to send the Thunder packing, I’m expecting Houston to come out very aggressive on the defensive end tonight as it looks to slow down OKC superstar Russell Westbrook. 

The Thunder have to be kicking themselves, as they had a lead through three quarters in Game 4, but their defense fell apart in the final frame and allowed the Rockets to score 40 points. OKC would go on to shoot just 18 of 32 from the charity stripe as well. 

Despite the victory, note that Houston wasn’t all that effecient offensively in Game 4, connecting on 43.5 percent from the floor, including only 11 of 35 from range. 

I’ll point out as well that OKC has seen the total go under the posted number in eight of 14 this year off an upset loss as a favorite and in 21 of 32 when playing the role of underdog, while Houston has seen the total dip below the posted number in two of its last three after scoring 110 points or more.

I think this is going to be a very rough game, which will lead to a slightly slower pace. Play the under.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Golden State Warriors (10:30 EST).

Head coach Steve Kerr won’t be on the sidelines, but with a chance to end the series tonight, I look for the high-powered Warriors to put the foot on the gas from start to finish and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover.

Portland is in a 3-0 hole and I think it’ll fold up its tents early in this one. Golden State averages 115.9 PPG this year, while the defense concedes only 104.3. 

Portland averages 107.9 PPG, but allows 108.5. Golden State is just too deep, too skilled defensively and too experienced overall for Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum to overcome themselves.

I’ll point out that Golden State is 6-0 ATS in its last six away from friendly confines and 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 after scoring 100 points or more in its previous contest, while Portland is just 5-12 ATS in its last 17 in this series in front of the home town crowd.

Portland’s only hope was Game 3. Look for the Golden State to deliver the knock out blow, lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Wizards (8:00 EST).

Washington took the first two games at home, but stumbled in Game 3’s 116-98 setback in Atlanta on Saturday. Suffice it to say, I like the Wizards to bounce back here and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

John Wall was a standout in the loss for Washington, finishing with 29 points and seven assists. 

Washington has to be feeling confident, it shot 37 percent from range in the regular season and averaged 109.2 PPG, ranked fifth overall. The defense was the weak point, but the Hawks only average 103.2 PPG, ranked 22nd overall. 

This is a spot in which the Wizards have excelled in all year as well, going 5-1 ATS in their last six following a straight up loss of ten points or more, while note that the Hawks have struggled in this position by going a poor 1-8 ATS in their last nine following a straight up victory over ten or more points.

Wall’s teammate Bradley Beal had an “off” night in Game 3, but it’s hard to imagine the talented guard being held down twice. I have a hard time seeing Atlanta duplicating its 49 percent shooting performance as well. 

While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing the points.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the over Bucks/Raptors (7:00 EST).

These teams are all tied at two apiece as the series shifts back to Toronto in what has now become the best of three.

So far the Over/Under is 1-3. I think finally though we’re going to see these teams post some prorduction as I look for this total to eclipse the lower number as it comes down the stretch.

So far these are the two lowest scoring teams in the playoffs. Milwaukee wasn’t a high-scoring team in the regular season either, finishing in the bottom third in scoring.

Toronto though finished in the top 5. 

It won’t take much offense to push this one over this low number though. And note, this is a spot in which the Bucks have in fact been involved in some higher-scoring affairs, as Milwaukee has seen the total go over the number in 14 of 22 this season after a loss by ten points or more and in eight of 13 off an upset loss as a favorite.

And note that Toronto has seen the total go over the number in 15 of 26 this season following a win by ten points or more and in three of its last four after allowing 90 points or less.

All signs finally point to a more wide open affair, play the over.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Clippers (9:00 EST).

Blake Griffin is out, but I think the Clippers are still the deeper, more skilled, more experienced and better coached team.

Griffin was out in Game 2, but veteran point guard Chris Paul took over, leading a 15-0 fourth quarter run, en route to the 114-106 Game 3 victory: “He has an amazing will,” Clippers’ head coach Doc Rivers assessed afterwards. “He’s just a tough guy. He’s stubborn in a very, very positive way. All the great ones have that in them. They’re stubborn like they aren’t going to lose.”

Paul went on to finish with 34 points, ten assists and seven boards, while DeAndre Jordan added 17.

Gordon Hayward was once again the focal point for Utah, he’d play 42 minutes and pour in 40 points. George Hill also showed up with 26 points. Of course, big man Rudy Gobert missed Game 3 and is listed as doubtful for Game 4 as well.

For arguments sake, lets call Gobert and Griffin a “wash.” 

When looking at the remaining pieces, in my professional opinion, LA has still has several advantages.

And I’ll point out that the Clippers are 3-1 ATS in thier last four after scoring 113 points or more, whle Utah is just 16-20 ATS this year in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. 

Grab as many points as you can, play on LA.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* TOTAL LEGEND is the under Celtics/Bulls (6:30 EST).

Boston struggled in Games 1 and 2, but got back on track in Chicago with a big 104-87 Game 3 victory. 

Al Horford scored 18 points and grabbed eight boards in the win. Isaiah Thomas is stlll trying to regain his focus after getting blind-sided with his sisters death just before the series started, he’d finish with 16 (note though that he did have nine assists). Four players would go on to score at least 15 points. 

Chicago dominated on the offensive end in Boston, but was held to just 39 percent from the floor in Game 3, including only 6 of 21 from range. Dwayne Wade was a standout with 18 points. Jimmy Butler was swarmed, finishing just 7 for 21 for 14 points and zero assists. 

I’ll point out that Boston has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last nine when trailing in a playoff series and in five of six this year after allowing 90 points or less, while Chicago has seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of 14 this season in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent.

I think this series has been somewhat civil to this point. But tempers are going to continue to flare. I believe both teams will put a huge emphasis on the defensive end. The under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Chicago between these two clubs and all signs point to another low-scoring affair. Play the under.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Warriors/Blazers (10:30 EST).

Golden State has a commanding 2-0 lead in this Western Conference Quarterfinal after pulling away for a 110-81 victory over the Blazers.

All star Kevin Durant did not even suit up for that one. He’s listed as questionable for tonight. Draymond Green was dominant in the Game 2 victory though, finishing with six points, 12 boards and ten assists. 

It’s do-or-die for the Blazers essentially as a 3-0 hole would clearly be too much for the team to overcome. So far Portland has struggled with offense, as Golden State has turned up the pressure and not allowed any free looks for it shooters. I think we can expect an identical game plan from Steve Kerr tonight as well. Note that Damian Lillard was held to just 12 points, including 0 of 4 from behind the arc in the Game 2 defeat.

Note that in four of their last five when playing on two days rest, the Warriors have seen the total dip below the posted number. Then there’s the Durant issue as well?

All signs point to this one sneaking under.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the over Spurs/Grizzlies (8:00 EST).

The Spurs are 2-1 in this series, taking the first two at home and dropping Game 3 in Memphis 105-94. Kawhi Leonard was dominant in the two victories in San Antonio, but was held to just 18 points last time out. 

Memphis predicates itself on its tough defensive play and it was front and center in Game 3. It will be tough though in my opinion to duplicate that performance against this deep and experienced Spurs side.

Regardless, the Grizzlies did look a lot better on the offensive end after struggling at times in the first two games. Zach Randolph had 21 points and eight boards. 

And I’ll point out that San Antonio has seen the total go over the number in 13 of 20 this year in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while Memphis has seen the total eclispe the posted number in three of its last four off an upset win as an underdog.

This number is just a little low, play the over.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the over Raptors/Brewers (3:00 EST).

Toronto is turning out to be the “Jekyll and Hyde” team of the 2017 playoffs, as you just don’t know what you’ll get from it from game to game. 

MIlwaukee can smell the blood in the water and will be looking to build off its Game 3 victory and take a 3-1 strangle hold in this Eastern Conference Quarterfinal. 

I’m expecting Toronto to push the pace from start to finish as it looks to re-assert itself and take the defensive minded Bucks out of their comfort zone. 

The Raptors couldn’t get anything going in Game 3, falling behind 32-12 in the first quarter. Toronto finished as one of the Top 5 offenses in the league, averaging over 107 PPG, but so far Toronto has been dead last in the playoffs in averaging only 88.7. 

As good as Milwaukee has been defensively, I think the Raptors finally break out tonight. 

And I’ll point out that the Raptors have seen the total go over the number in six of their last ten when trailing in a playoff series and in four of their last five in revenging a loss against an opponent, while the Bucks have seen the total eclipse the posted number in five of eight this year after allowing 85 points or less.

For all the reasons listed above, play the over.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* 33-Club Play is on the LA Clippers (10:00 EST).

These teams are 1-1 so far in this series and depending on when/where you played it, they’re also 1-1 ATS.

Utah stole Game 1 97-95, while LA bounced back with a 99-91 win in Game 2. 

LA held an 18-0 advantage with points in the paint in the first quarter and used that strategy throughout the game, as Utah struggled with the loss of big man Rudy Gobert. The Clippers shot 52.4 percent from the floor and held a 39-33 edge on the boards. Blake Griffin had 24 points, while Chris Paul added 21 points and ten boards.

Gobert has once again been ruled out for Game 3. The Jazz managed go go 17 of 22 from the free throw line in Game 2, the only factor that kept the game as close as it was. Gordon Hayward was a lone bright spot with 20 points in the setback. 

I’ll point out that LA is 3-1 ATS in its last four when playing on two days rest, while Utah is only 1-3 ATS in its last four in the same position.

I think the extended absence of Gobert comes back to haunt the Jazz again tonight, play on the Clippers.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Antonio Spurs (9:30 EST).

The Grizzlies showed some life in Game 1, but were clobbered in Game 2, 96-82. San Antonio’s depth is once again proving to be just too much for Memphis to handle and I believe nothing will change in Game 3.

The Spurs have to be feeling pretty confident as they’ve now won 16 of the last 20 in this series. 

Keep your eyes on San Antonio star Kawhi Leonard, who had a career playoff-high 37 points in the Game 2 win. Veteran point guard Tony Parker contributed 15 points as well.

Mike Conley was a standout for the Grizzlies in Game 2, finishing with 24 points. Tony Allen missed Monday’s game with a calf issue and is questionable for tonight as well (note that he’s averaging just 9.1 PPG this year).

I think a 4-0 sweep is very possible in this series. I believe the Spurs win big again in Game 3, lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Raptors (8:00 EST).

These teams are tied at one game a piece as their Eastern Conference series shifts to Milwaukee. Toronto though is 0-2 ATS at this point.

Suffice it to say, I think the road will work well for the Raptors, who can escape the media frenzy North of the border and concentrate completely on themselves.

The Bucks have put up a hell of a fight to this point, but I think the Raptors’ depth will prove to be the difference maker. In Game 3 anyways.

Toronto averages 106.9 PPG and concedes 102.6. 

Milwaukee averages 103.6 PPG and concedes 103.8.

And I’ll point out that the Raptors are 6-1 ATS in thier last seven on the road and 5-1 ATS in their last six road games against a team with a winning home record, while the Bucks are just 1-4 ATS in their last five at home and a horrible 1-7 ATS in their last eight after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

Experience at this time of the year is invaluable. DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry both looked a lot better in Game 2 and I believe that momentum gets carried over here. Play on Toronto.

Good luck…larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (7:00 EST).

I’ve bet against the Cavaliers in each of the first two games of this Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. Cleveland is 2-0 SU and 0-2 ATS. 

With a chance to take a strangle-hold on this series, I’m expecting Cleveland to put the foot on the gas from start to finish and look for it to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable win and cover.

The Pacers are wearing down and they had no answers for the Cavs in Game 2 as Cleveland would go on to shoot a sizzling 55.3 percent from the floor. 

The Cavs will be looking for a better defensive performance themselves after allowing the Pacers to hit 51.2 percent. Keep your eyes on guard Kyrie Irving, who appears to be heating up at the most opportune of times, he had 37 points on 14 of 24 shooting in Game 2.

Also note that Kevin Love, LeBron James and Tristan Thompson combined for 31 rebounds.

Paul George continues to carry the Pacers and he did his best last time out, finishing with 32 points, eight boards and seven assists. 

I’ll point out though that Cleveland is 12-8 ATS in its last 20 when leading in a playoff series, while Indiana is interestingly just 14-18 ATS this year against poor defensive teams which allow 106 points per contest. 

I think the Cavs fight hard on the road and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on Cleveland.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* LEGEND is is on the Portland Trailblazers (10:30 EST).

Portland got 41 points from CJ McCollum and 34 from Damian Lillard, but it still wasn’t enough in the 121-109 Game 1 loss to the Warriors.

I’m not going to predict an outright upset here or anything, but I do think that the Blazers can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.

Game 1 was actually tied entering the fourth quarter, but an early 9-2 run by the Warriors would spell the end for Portland’s chances. It wasn’t a perfect game for Golden State by any sense though, as the Warriors did go on to concede 19 points off 16 turnovers. 

And I’ll point out that Portland is 8-1 ATS in its last nine after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game and 6-1 ATS in its last seven following a SU loss, while Golden State is 4-12-2 ATS in its last 18 when playing on two days rest.

I think Golden State takes the foot off the gas tonight and I expect the desperate visitors to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Play on Portland.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Clippers (10:30 EST).

I had a play on the Jazz in Game 1. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting the Clippers to risk life and limb in Game 2 to secure a victory and expect the Jazz to fold up their tents early and be completely content with the split before heading home.

Utah played great defensively and got a buzzer beating 3-pointer from Joe Johnson to seal the 97-95 victory in Game 1. The Jazz were the No. 1 defensive team in the league in conceding only 96.8 PPG, but they were ranked 28th overall on the offensive end in averaging 100.7.

This is do-or-die essentially for the Clippers, as an 0-2 hole heading back to Utah would likely be too big of a climb to get out of. LA has to be feeling confident though, it averaged 108.7 PPG and conceded 104.4 in the regular season. 

I’ll point out that Utah is just 4-6 ATS this year when playing with two days rest and only 7-10 ATS after three or more consecutive SU victories, while LA is 7-5 ATS this season in revenging a home loss against an opponent and 6-4 ATS in its last ten against good defensive clubs with allow only 98 plus points per contest.

Jazz center Rudy Gobert was injured in the first few minutes of Game 1 and basically didn’t even play and somehow Utah still managed the dominant victory. Gobert is listed as doubtful this evening as well. I think this will have an impact on the visitors.

For all the reasons listed above, I’m laying the points and expecting a blowout.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Bulls (8:00 EST).

I played Chicago in Game 1 and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the visitors to at the very least, take this one down to the wire and keep it competitive until the final moments.

I based my Game 1 selection primarily on the issues that Celtics star’ Isaiah Thomas was dealing with as the night before Game 1 his sister was killed in a car crash. 

Thomas is expected to play again tonight, but I still think that he’ll struggle to keep his head in the game. Boston is a deep team, but without a 100% focused Thomas, it’s going to be very difficult for it to succeed. 

Besides, the Bulls looked pretty dominant in Game 1, including winning the rebounding battle 53-36, with 20 of those boards coming on the offensive glass. Chicago also was 20 of 23 from the charity stripe, while limiting the C’s to just 43 percent from the floor overall. 

Chicago won’t be rolling over here obviously. All signs point to a nail-biter, so grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is the over Bucks/Raptors (7:00 EST).

Milwaukee pulled away for a 97-83 win in Game 1. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting the home side to come out fired up tonight and to push the pace from start to finish. 

The Bucks are going to have to match pace if they have any shot at pulling off another upset. A faster paced game usually translates into a higher-scoring affair and that’s exactly what I’m expecting here. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo finished with 28 points plus eight rebounds in the Game 1 win to lead Milwaukee. The Bucks were 12 of 15 from the line, compared to 24 of 33 for the Raptors.

This is basically a “must-win” game for Toronto now. The Raptors though have to be feeling pretty confident as they’d won 13 of the previous 15 regular season contests against Milwaukee. Toronto was one of the highest scoring team’s in the league and I’m fully expecting a return to the norm this evening.

I’ll point out that Milwaukee has seen the total go over the number in nine of 15 this season off an upset win as an underdog, while Toronto has seen the total eclipse the posted number in ten of 13 this year when playing on two days rest.

For all the reasons listed above, play the OVER.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the San Antonio  Spurs (9:30 EST).

I played on San Antonio in Game 1 and I think it will once again lay the hammer down in Game 2. Home court is going to be important in this series I think from an “Against The Spread” angle anyways.

Memphis got off to a good opening quarter in Game 1, but the Spurs were able to reign in the Grizzlies and then pull away before the half. Memphis shot just 39 percent from the floor, including only 7 of 20 from range. Marc Gasol was a standout with 32 points on 11 of 18 shooting.

Memphis averages only 100.5 PPG, but makes up for it on the defensive end in conceding only 100.5

That vaunted defense looked pretty mediocre against the Spurs though, who would go on to shoot a blistering 53 percent from the floor. 

Kawhi Leonard led the charge for San Antonio with 31 points. Leonard played smothering defense all season and the Spurs would go on to allow just 98.1 PPG.

I’ll point out that Memphis is just 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road, while the Spurs are 2-1 ATS in their last three following an ATS victory.

I think the Grizzlies have no answer for the Spurs on either end of the court and while I do believe Memphis will look a lot better on its home floor, all signs point to another blowout this evening. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Indiana Pacers (7:00 EST).

I played Indiana in Game 1 and I think the Pacers can once again take Game 2 down to the wire.

Indiana managed to cut the lead to just one in the waning moments of Game 1, but a missed CJ Miles shot at the buzzer sealed the 109-108 home win for the Cavs.

Paul George led the way for Indiana with 29 points, five boards and seven assists, while Lance Stephenson chipped in 16 off the bench. 

The Cavs backed their way into the playoffs, losing four straight and were lucky that Miles missed the shot and that George wasn’t taking it. LeBron James was a standout with 32 points, six boards, 13 assists and three steals. 

I’ll point out though that Indiana has performed extremely well in this spot for bettors all year, going 4-0 ATS in its last four after allowing 100 points or more and 6-0 ATS in its last six following an ATS victory, while Cleveland is a poor 1-5 ATS in its last six when playing on one days rest.

Indiana won’t be rolling over. In fact, this is pretty much do-or-die for the Pacers, as an 0-2 hole would likely be just too much for the team to recover from.

While I won’t be so bold as to predict the outright upset, I do think that the hungry visitors can at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch.

Play on the Pacers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* LEGEND is on the Houston Rockets (9:00 EST).

The 47-35 OKC Thunder are in Houston to take on the 55-27 Rockets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

This one features the two leading candidates for MVP in James Harden and Russell Westbrook. 

Westbrook is probably the better oveall player, but I think that Harden has the better overall team. The Rockets also have home court advantage and I think that will be a crucial deciding factor once it’s all said and done this evening.

Houston has to be feeling pretty confident as well as it took three of the four regular season meetings. 

OKC averages 106.6 PPG and concedes 105.8. 

Houston averages 115.3 PPG and concedes 109.3.

From a trend based stand point, this one heavily favors the home side, as note that OKC is just 12-19 ATS this year against good offensive clubs which average 106 plus points per contest and only 19-22 ATS on the road overall, while Houston is 18-11 ATS after allowing 115 points or more and 3-1 ATS when playing with three or more days rest.

I think home court advantage will be important in this series and look for the Rockets to set the early tone. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Bulls (6:30 EST).

The 41-41 Chicago Bulls are in Boston to take on the 53-29 Celtics and while I’ll stop short in calling for an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can, because for a number of different reasons I think this one favors the visitors.

This is strictly a “situational” play. Isaiah Thomas is the heart and soul of the C’s. Thomas’ sister was tragically killed in a car accident early Saturday and he may not even play in this game. If he does, clearly his head won’t be in it.

Boston is a deep team, but without their floor general completely focused, I think it is going to struggle tonight. 

I’ll point out as well that Chicago is 6-1 ATS in its last seven when playing with three or more days rest, while Boston is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven at home and only 1-5 ATS in its last six home games against a team with a losing road record.

These teams split four games this year, and three of those four were decided by seven points or less. 

I think Chicago does in fact have a shot at a victory today, but as mentioned off the top, I’m grabbing the points in the end.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is the under Blazers/Warriors (3:30 EST).

The 41-41 Portland Trailblazers are in Golden State to take on the 67-15 Warriors in Game 1 of their Western Conference first round matchup and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it.

The Blazers had a three-game win streak snapped with a 103-100 home loss to New Orleans in their finale on Wednesday, while the Warriors won for a 15th time in their last 16 games with a 109-94 victory over the Lakers later that same night. 

Golden State has won ten of the last 11 in the series, including all four this year, most recently a 113-110 road victory on January 29th. 

The Warriors have to be feeling pretty confident here as they won the lone playoff series between the clubs, 4-1, in the 2016 Western Conference semifinals.

Portland averages 107.9 PPG and concedes 108.5. 

Golden State averages 115.9 PPG and concedes 104.3.

I’ll point out though that the under is 5-1 in Porland’s last six against the Pacific and 4-1 in its last five following a SU loss, while Golden State has seen the under go 5-1 in its last six quarterfinals matchups and 10-3 in its last 13 at home. 

Both teams tightend up defensively down the stretch and I expect that to carry over here. They can still both score in triple-digits and have this total fall under this sky-high number and that’s exactly what I’m expecting.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washignton Wizards (1:00 EST).

The 43-39 Altanta Hawks are in Washington to take on the 49-33 Wizards and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

Atlanta had won four straight before dropping its regular season finale104-86 at Indiana on Wednesday. 

The Wizards lost five of the final eight, including a 110-102 road defeat to Miami on Wednesday. 

If histoy is any precedence though then Washington has to be liking its chances as it would go on to take three of four in the regular season series, including a 104-100 home win in the most recent on March 22nd. 

Atlanta averages only 103.2 PPG, whil conceding 104. 

Washington averages 109.2 PPG and concedes 107.4 

I’ll point out though that Atlanta is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 following a straight up loss, while Washington is 6-0 ATS in its last six conference quarterfinals games.

The Wizards “struggled” down the stretch, but the team had nothing to play for, locked into its position for a while now. Washington domianted this series in the regular season and I expect that to continue in the Playoffs. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* 33-Club Play is on the Utah Jazz (10:30 EST).

The 51-31 Utah Jazz are in LA to take on the 51-31 Clippers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. 

The Clippers took the tie-breaker by winning three of four in the season series. Utah though won its last game over the Spurs on Wednesday. Utah hasn’t been to the playoffs since 2012 and will clearly be leaving everything on the floor tonight as it looks to score the upset and gain the early upperhand.

The pressure is clearly on LA this year. It comes in having won seven straight, but I think this sets up as a classic trap/letdown spot for the home side.

As note that Utah is 3-1 ATS in its last four in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while LA is just 15-16 ATS after a win by ten points or more and only 9-15 ATS after scoring 115 points or more. 

While I wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I do think that the stage is set for a nail-biter. In a contest which I believe will be decided in the closing moments, I’m grabbing the points.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Antonio Spurs (8:00 EST).

The 43-39 Memphis Grizzlies are in San Antonio to take on the 61-21 Spurs and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

If recent history is any precedence, then the Spurs have to be loving their chances today as they swept the Grizzlies in the first round last year. 

Memphis averaged just 100.5 PPG, but made up for it on the defensive end in conceding just 100.

The Spurs averaged 105.3 PPG and conceded just 98.1. 

I’ll point out though that Memphis has struggled in this spot for bettors this year, going just 1-11 ATS when playing with two days rest, while the Spurs are 7-4 ATS in their last 11 in the first round of the playoffs.

Memphis was consistently inconsistent this year, while San Antonio remained in the Top 3 in the league the entire way. Experience and coaching counts in these situations. Lay the points, play on the Spurs.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Raptors (5:30 EST).

The 42-40 Milwaukee Bucks are in Toronto to take on the 51-31 Raptors and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

The Bucks backed their way into the playoffs, dropping four of six, falling 112-94 at Boston on Wednesday.

The Raptors trended the other way to finish the season with four straight victories, most recently an impressive 98-83 win on the road in Cleveland on Wednesday. 

Toronto has to be feeling pretty confident here, as it’s won 13 of the last 15 in the series, including a 101-94 home win in the latest on March 4th. 

The Bucks averaged just 103.6 PPG (ranked 20th), while ranked ninth defensively in conceding 103.8.

Toronto averaged 106.9 PPG (ranked 10th), while conceding just 102.6. 

I’ll point out that Milwaukee is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against a team with a winning SU record, while Toronto is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 when playing on two days rest. 

Milwaukee’s struggles cost it a matchup against the Wizards, which would be preferable than having to travel North of the border. 

The Raptors have momentum and coupled with their recent playoff experience, suffice it to say I’m expecting a complete blowout in Game 1. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Indiana Pacers (3:00 EST).

The 42-40 Indiana Pacers are in Cleveland to take on the 51-31 Cavaliers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the underdog.

Now that the playoffs are here, are the Cavs just going to “flip-a-switch?!” That’s what the all the talking heads out there will lead you to believe.

Does this one mean more to Cleveland that it does to Indiana?

The answer to that one is clearly a resounding “no.” 

Indiana clinched a spot with a 104-86 win over the Hawks on Wednesday, while the Cavs backed their way into the postsesaon, losing four straight to end the year. 

This is a revenge game for Indiana, as it lost three of four in the season series, including a 135-130 doulbe OT thriller on April 2nd.

The Pacers average 105.1 points per night and concede 105.3. The Cavs average 110.3 PPG and concede 107.2

What’s with this 9-point (give or take upon the closing line) spread? 

I’ll point out that Indiana is 5-0 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory, while Cleveland is just 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 games following a double-digit loss at home. 

Until Cleveland can prove to me that it’s turned the corner, I’m going against the Cavs to open the playoffs. Too many points, play on Indiana.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Memphis Grizzlies (8:00 EST).

It’s the final day of the regular season, so many of the techniques that handicappers have used for the regular season just don’t pertain in this situation.

This is a great situational play in my opinion, as the Mavs come in off a game just last night against the Nuggets and will now look to put the final nail in the coffin in another disappointing season. 

The Grizzlies on the other hand would love to have a win before the postseason as they’ve stumbled of late, losing four of their last five, most recently a 103-90 setback to Detroit on Sunday. 

I’ll point out that Dallas is just 1-3 ATS in its last four in the second game of a back-to-back, while Memphis is 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring 90 points or less. 

I like the Grizzlies to push the pace and end the season on a high note in front of the home town crowd, while I also expect the visitors to simply go through the motions in this one. 

Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* WESTERN CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE MONTH is the under Nuggets/Mavericks (8:35 EST).

The 38-42 Denver Nuggets are in Dallas to take on the 32-48 Mavericks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it.

These are two teams playing out the end of their respective seasons. Denver fell apart in a 106-105 home loss to OKC on Sunday, while Dallas lost its fourth straight and its eighth out of its last nine after falling 124-111 at Phoenix on Sunday. 

Denver has taken two of three in the season series, including a 110-87 win at home on February 6th. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a similar final combined score this evening as well.

Denver is the third highest scoring team in the league with an average of 111.8 PPG and it’s horrible defensively, ranked 27th in conceding 111.5. But I think the Nuggets finally have a letdown here, as the loss to Oklahoma City, coupled with the Blazers victory on Saturday put the final nail in the coffin for their playoff hopes. It’s a classic “letdown” spot if I’ve ever seen one.

The Mavs started slow, had a small mid-season surge and then predictably fell apart down the stretch. Dallas will end the season ranked dead last in PPG with 98. Dallas is decent defensively though in conceding only 100.8. 

I’ll point out that Denver has seen the total go under the number in six of nine this year against poor offensive teams that average 98 points or less per contest, while Dallas has seen the total dip below the posted number in interestingly 13 of 21 this year against poor defensive teams which allow 106 plus points per contest.

A couple of disinterested teams put forth a half-assed effort and this one falls under once it’s all said and done.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE SIDE OF THE WEEK is on the Washington Wizards (8:00 EST).

The 48-32 Washington Wizards are in Detroit to take on the 36-43 Pistons and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. 

The Wizards lost for a fourth time in their last six games with a 106-103 setback to the Heat on Saturday night, dropping the team back into fourth place in the East. 

Washington remains fifth in the league in scoring with 109.3 per contest, while ranked 21st in conceding 107.4. John Wall leads the team with 23.1 points, 10.7 assists and 2.01 steals per game. 

The Pistons average 101.2 PPG and concede 102.4. Tobias Harris leads all players with 16.2 points, plus 5.1 boards per game.

I’ll point out that Washington is 23-13 ATS this season in trying ot revenge a loss against an opponent, while Detroit is just 15-22 ATS as an underdog.

The Pistons have nothing to play for right now except the role of spoiler. There’s nothing to spoil for Washington though, which has already punched its ticket to the posteason.

Detroit looked bad against Memphis last time out and I don’t think it’ll put up much of a fight here either. The Wizards are cold at the worst possible time, but have a big opportunity here to get untracked and gain some momentum as they head into the playoffs. 

Lay the points, play on Washington.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (3:35 EST).

I played on Cleveland in its big win over the Celtics earlier in the week, a victory which would give the Cavs the No. 1 spot in the East at the time. 

A favorable matchup the following night against an Atlanta Hawks team which would be without most of its starting players looked like a perfect opportunity to keep the momentum rolling, but the home side would come out flat and inexplicably fell 114-100 on Friday.

Suffice it to say, I think it’s payback time today as note that ATL has in fact taken two of three in the season series from the Cavs already.

The Cavs are still fighting for the No. 1 seed in the East. They average 110.4 PPG and concede 106.8. LeBron James had 27 points, eight boards and seven assists in the setback on Friday.

The Hawks average 103.1 PPG and concede 104.1. Note that ATL hits just 34.2 percent from range, ranked 24th overall.

Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson are both doubtful for this one, but I don’t think it’s going to matter. The Hawks are also dealing with injury issues. 

I believe Cleveland feels embarrassed by its performance last time out and I look for it to make amends with a decisive effort this evening. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* EASTERN CONFERENCE SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the Washington Wizards (7:05 EST).

The 38-41 Miami Heat are in the nation’s capital to take on the 48-31 WIzards and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

The Heat’s playoff hopes are fading quickly after falling 96-94 in Toronto just last night. 

The Wizards are trending in the opposite direction, as they’ve won two straight after edging by the Knicks 106-103 on the road Thursday. 

This is a double revenge scenario, as Miami has taken the first two meetings this year, including a 112-101 home victory in the last matchup back on December 12th.

It was an amazing run for the Heat after the All Star break, but they’ve now run out of gas. Miami has lost three of its last four. 

The Heat are a poor offensive team, averaging 102.9 PPG. Miami makes up for it on the defensive end though by conceding just 101.9.

The Wizards are a good offensive team, averaging 109.4. Washington is poor defensively though in conceding 107.4 per night. 

But the situational and motivational factors are clearly working in favor of the home side in this one. Washington now looks to close the season strong, to avenge the two earlier losses and to take advantage of what will clearly be a very tired Heat side. Lay the points with confidence.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is the under Thunder/Suns (10:05 EST).

The 45-33 OKC Thunder are in Phoenix to take on the 22-57 Suns and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it.

OKC currently sits in sixth spot in the West, while the Suns are playing out the tail end of a miserable season. 

The Thunder come in off an ipressive 103-100 road win over the Grizzlies. Russell Westbrook had 45 points, nine boards and ten assists. He needs just one more Triple-Double to surpass Oscar Robertson on the all time list. Westbrook had eight three-pointers in that one and the Thunder shot 45 percent from range.

But that’s hardly been the norm this year though, as note that OKC does rank as one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the country, hitting 33 percent. 

Phoenix comes in off a 120-111 loss to the Warriors. Devin Booker had 21 points, three boards, five assists and three steals. The Suns looked particularly horrible on the offensive end, shooting only 41.7 percent from the floor. They also turned the ball over 16 times.

I’ll point out that OKC has seen the total go under the number in 21 of 31 this year in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while Phoenix has seen the total dip below the posted number in two of its last three after allowing 120 points or more.

The Thunder look to close the regular season strong. They don’t need to push the pace of this one to win, so expect the visitors to control the tempo. This number is just a little high, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is the over Spurs/Mavericks (8:30 EST).

The 60-18 San Antonio Spurs are in Dallas to take on the 32-46 Mavericks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has offensive shootout written all over it.

San Antonio had won three straight and eight of nine before a humbling 102-95 home loss to the Lakers on Wednesday, while Dallas lost its second straight and sixth of its last seven after a 112-101 road loss to the Clippers on Wednesday. 

The Spurs play with revenge here, as Dallas scored the 105-101 road upset in the last matchup on January 29th. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a similar final combined score here as well.

San Antonio averages 105.8 PPG and concedes 98.2.

The Mavs average only 97.9 PPG and allow 100.5.

San Antonio is resting its star players, which means that the backups will be looking to make a statement today and take advantage of the opportunity. Neither team has anything to play for, as Dallas is out of the playoffs, while San Antonio is locked into second in the West no matter what happens over the last few games.

I don’t think much effort will be put onto the defensive end tonight. Play the over.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is the under Heat/Raptors (7:35 EST).

The 38-40 Miami Heat are in Toronto to take on the 48-31 Raptors and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. 

The Heat broke a two-game slide with a 112-99 victory in Charlotte on Wednesday, while Toronto rallied to beat the Pistons 105-102 on the road for its eighth win in its last ten games on the same night. 

Note that Toronto has taken two of three in the season series this year, which includes a 101-84 victory in the most recent matchup on March 23rd. Suffice it to say, I expect a similar final combined score here as well. 

Miami is in a dog fight for the final playoff spot in the East. The Heat only average 102.9 PPG, but make up for it on the defensive end in conceding just 101.9.

Clearly Miami can ill afford to get into a “track meet” with the high-flying Raptors, who average 107.1 PPG. The Heat will have to do what they do best and that’s play tough, full court defense from start to finish if they have any hopes whatsoever in scoring the upset this evening.

Toronto is ranked seventh in scoring defense in conceding 103.1 PPG. 

The Raptors have been playing to some higher-scoring affairs of late, but after their epic come-from-behind win over the Pistons and with road games at New York and Cleveland to close out the regular season, Toronto could no doubt be caught a little flat-footed and “gassed” tonight.

I’ll point out that the under is 8-1 in Miami’s last nine following a straight-up win over more than ten points and 4-1 in its last five when playing on one days rest, while Toronto has seen the under go 6-2 in its last eight after allowing 102 points or more in its previous outing.

I’m expecting an all out war and for this one to fall under once it’s all said and done.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Western Conference SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the Portland Trailblazers (10:30 EST).

The 31-46 Minnesota Timberwolves are in Portland to take on the 38-40 Blazers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

With just four games to go, Portland has a one-game lead over Denver for the eighth spot. The Blazers will be desperate to maintain that position obviously, but also to get back on track after a two-game slide, one of which came by one point at the hands of these very Timberwolves in Minnesota on Monday night.

Suffice it to say, it’s payback time on Thursday!

Minnesota has won three of its last five, but has nothing to play for other than spoiler now. And that can only provide so much motivation for so long before everyone just throws in the towel. This is what I envision happening this evening as Portland risks life and limb tonight to get off the schneid with a decent full four-quarter effort.

And if history is any precedence, then the Blazers have to be loving their chances today as they’ve won 20 of the last 22 meetings at home against Minnesota: “We’re ready to go home and finish the season out strong and we know that we control what happens,” Portland’s star point guard Damian Lillard said last night.

I’ll point out that the Wolves are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight on the road and just 1-6 ATS in their last seven when playing on one days rest, while the Trailblazers are 6-0 ATS in their last six when playing on one days rest and 4-0 ATS in their last four at home against clubs with losing road records.

I think the Wolves check out of this one early and expect Portland to put the foot on the gas from start to finish. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (8:05 EST).

The 49-27 Cavaliers are in Boston to take on the 50-27 Celtics and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

This is the biggest regular season game for both teams so far as first place is up for grabs in the Eastern Conference. 

Boston won its second straight and sixth in its last seven with a 110-94 victory over New York on Sunday, while Cleveland cruised to a 122-102 win over Orlando at home last night.

The Cavs have taken two of three so far this year, but it was the C’s which won 103-99 at home in the latest on March 1st.

Cleveland has now won three straight. It averages 110.3 PPG and concedes 107. LeBron James leads the nightly charge with 26.3 points, 8.5 boards and 8.7 assists per game. Note that the Cavs are second in the NBA in made threes with 13 triples a game.

Boston averages 107.8 PPG and concedes 105.1. Isaiah Thomas averages 29.1 points and 5.9 assists per game. Boston is ranked fourth in three points with 11.9 per contest.

I’ll point out though that Cleveland is 12-9 ATS this season following a win by ten points or more, while Boston is just 11-15 ATS this year against poor defensive teams which allow 106 plus points per contest (also only 5-9 ATS following a win by ten points or more). 

For many, the Cavaliers playing the Warriors this year was the “biggest” regular season game. Perhaps the Warriors and Durant against the Thunder as well. However, this is the biggest game in terms of it actually meaning something for the postseason. 

That means that it’s “go” time for James and company. I look for the defending champs to put on a show tonight and at the very least, take this one down to the wire. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Nuggets/Pelicans (8:05 EST).

The 36-40 Denver Nuggets are in New Orleans to take on the 33-44 Pelicans and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it.

Eighth spot in the East is still up for grabs. Denver sits two games back of Portland and New Orleans sits 2.5 back. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting these teams to body up and play some tougher defense with so much on the line.

Denver comes in off a 116-113 win over Miami on Sunday, snapping a three-game losing streak. 

New Orleans is on the verge of elimination after falling 117-110 to the Bulls on Sunday. 

Denver loves to push the pace and is one of the highest scoring teams in the nation, but note that the Nuggets have in fact seen the total go under the number in eight of 14 this year off an upset win as an underdog.

And note that New Orleans has seen the total dip below the posted number in 15 of 21 this year after allowing 115 points or more.

Anthony Davis is questionable for this one, which doesn’t bode well for the Pels.

When you add it all up, I think this number is just a tiny bit high. Play the under.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Magic/Cavaliers (7:05 EST).

The 27-50 Orlando Magic are in Cleveland to take on the 49-27 Cavaliers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it.

The Magic are going through the motions at this point and enter off a fourth straight loss, this time a 121-111 road setback to Brooklyln on Saturday.

The Cavs come in off a second straight win, but will look to manage the pace of this one after their epic 135-130 double OT victory over the Pacers on Sunday. 

Cleveland has to be liking its chances today as well as it’s won 16 straight in the series.

That doesn’t bode well for a Magic team that is 27th in the league in scoring with an average of just 100.9 PPG. 

Cleveland has a big game in Boston up next, so could also be caught “looking ahead” here.

From a situational stand point, this one sets up great for a lower-scoring affair, but also note that the under has gone 5-1 in the Magic’s last six against the Central division, while the Cavaliers have seen the total go under in three of their last four after giving up 130 points or more.

This number is just a little high, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Hornets/Wizards (7:05 EST).

The 36-41 Charlotte Hornets are in Washington to take on the 46-31 Wizards and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it.

Charlotte still has a mathematical shot at the playoffs and comes in with some momentum, having won three straight and seven of nine, most recently a 113-101 victory over OKC on Sunday. 

The Wizards are already in the playoffs, but they’ll be looking to get back on track after dropping three straight, most recently a 139-115 setback at Golden State on Sunday. 

Washington has won two of three against the Hornets this year, but it was Charlotte that scored the 98-93 win at home in the last matchup on March 18th. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a similar final combined score tonight as well.

The Hornets average 105.5 PPG and concede 104.4. Kemba Walker leads the way with 23.1 points and 5.5 assists per game.

The Wizards average 109.3 PPG and concede 107.5. John Wall leads all scorers with 23.2 points, 10.7 assists and 1.97 steals per game.

I’ll point out though that Charlotte has seen the total go under the number in nine of 13 against the division this year, while Washignton has seen the total dip below the posted number in three of its last four divisional contests as well.

All signs point to a lower-scoring affair in my opinion, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* NAT CHAMP GAME SIDE WINNER is on Gonzaga (9:20 EST).

Arguably the two best teams in the nation collide on Monday night and as you can tell, the oddsmakers feel that they’re pretty evenly matched.

However, I don’t. I think the Bulldogs superior defensive play will turn out to be the difference this evening.

Keep your eyes on Nigel Williams-Goss for Gonzaga, he’s averaged 16.7 points, 5.9 rebounds and 4.6 assists this season. The Bulldogs have two seven footers on their team as well, including the giant Przemek Kanowski, who averages 12.2 points and 5.8 boards per game.

Justin Jackson leads the charge for the high-flying tar Heels with 18.2 points and 4.7 boards per game. Also in double figures are Joel Berry II (14.5) and Kennedy Meeks (12.3 points and 9.3 boards per contest).

I’ll point out though that Gonzaga is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 following an ATS loss, while UNC is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five following a SU victory.

Ultimately I think it will be the Bulldogs’ size and defense which turns out to be the difference in the National Championship game. Play on Gonzaga.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the under Pacers/Cavaliers (6:05 EST).

The 37-38 Indiana Pacers are in Cleveland to take on the 47-27 Cavaliers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it.

This is a big game for both teams. Cleveland had lost three straight before beating the 76ers 122-105 on Friday, but still sits behind Boston for the No. 1 seed in the East. 

Indiana holds the final playoff spot in the East, but the Bulls are only a half game behind it. 

The Pacers have also dropped three straight and will be looking to improve dramatically on the defensive side after losing 111-110 to the Raptors on Sunday after going into the half with a lead. 

A date against the struggling Cavaliers could be exactly what the doctor ordered for Indiana though as Cleveland has averaged just 94 points during its losing streak. 

And I’ll point out that Indiana has seen the total go under the number in 21 of 38 this year in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while Cleveland has seen the total dip below the posted number in 12 of 22 this season following a win by ten points or more. 

This is the Cavs third game in four days, so I expect the home side to control the pace of this one as it looks to avoid getting into a “track meet” with hungry Pacers. Play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* TOTAL PERFECT STORM is the over Oregon/North Carolina (8:45 EST).

Oregon gets ready to battle North Carolina in the Final Four on Saturday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has offensive shootout written all over it.

The Ducks beat Iona, Rhode Island, Michigan and then a 74-60 blowout of Kansas in the Elite Eight. 

UNC would advance by besting Texas Southern, Arkansas, Butler and then a thrilling 75-73 victory over Kentucky last weekend. Luke Maye hit a game winner with 0.3 seconds left.

Both teams come into this one “firing on all cylinders.” I’m expecting a quick start to this one, with no “feeling out” period whatsoever. So with each pushing the pace from start to finish, all signs point to this one eclipsing the number as it comes down the stretch. 

Oregon looked dominant in its victory over the Jayhawks, especially Jordan Bell who finished with eight blocks.

UNC out rebounded the Wildcats 44-34 last weekend and it will look to rule the glass in this one as well, one area in which it has a significant advantage over its opponent.

I’ll point out that Oregon has seen the total go over the number in three of its last four after holding its previous opponent to 60 points or less, while UNC has seen the total sail above the posted number in two of its last three after scoring 75 points or less.

Oregon will need to stretch the UNC defense if it has any shot at pulling off the outright upset and that means shooting a lot from the outside. UNC is the highest scoring team in the nation and will be looking to do what it does best and that’s getting out and pushing the pace from start to finish.

This number is just a little low, play the over.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* SIDE OF THE MONTH is on Gonzaga (6:05 EST).

The South Carolina Gamecocks and Gonzaga Bulldogs are in unchartered territory right now.

The Gamecocks knocked off Florida 77-70 to advance, while the Bulldogs smashed Xavier 83-59 last Saturday. 

South Carolina is in over its head here in my opinion. So far the Gamecocks have trailed three times in four games in this tournament, only to rally and win the contest with a big second half. South Carolina would shoot 49.1 percent from the floor in the win over Florida, despite going just 2 of 10 from range. Sindarius Thornwell was a standout with 26 points and seven boards.

Overall though the Gamecocks are nothing special offensively, they average 73.2 PPG. But they make up for it on the defensive end though, conceding only 64.9 PPG, ranked 31st in the nation. 

The Bulldogs limited the Musketeers to just 20 second half points last weekend, while also going on to hit 47.5 percent from the floor themselves, including knocking down 12 of 24 from range. Xavier was held to just 2 of 16 from behind the arc. Nigel Williams-Goss led Gonzaga with 23 points and eight boards. 

The Bulldogs are 14th in the country in scoring with 83.2 PPG, while ranked fourth on the defensive end in conceding just 60.9. 

I think ATS stats are pretty meaningless at this point and as these teams have no real prior history against each other, this particular selection is based primarily on the situation.

I think the over-achieving Gamecock’s Cindarella run comes to an end here. Gonzaga is very well coached under Frank Martin and has vastly more experience in its line-up, something that can’t be overlooked whatsoever at this point of the tournament.

The Bulldogs are superior on both sides of the ball and in my opinion, this spread should in fact be a lot larger. And that’s why Gonzaga is my April CBB Game Of The Month.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the under Lakers/Clippers (3:35 EST).

The 21-54 LA Lakers are get ready to battle the 46-31 Clippers on Saturday afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I expect this total to fall below this sky-high number.

The Lakers come in off a third straight loss and 17th in their last 19 after a 119-104 road loss to the Wolves on Thursday. 

The Clippers come in off a 124-118 road win over the Suns, their sixth win in their last eight games. 

The Clippers have won 13 of the last 14 in the series, including a 133-109 victory in the last contest on March 21st.

These teams have been playing to some pretty high-scoring affairs of late and also against each other, but I think the situation now finally lends itself to a more defensive affair.

Clearly the Lakers are just going through the motions at this point of the season, the starters will look to avoid injury and the team is hoping for a top draft choice.

The Clippers though have a lot to play for still, they currently sit in fifth in the West and would love nothing more than to leap frog the Jazz so as to ensure home court advantage in the first round.

I’ll point out that the Lakers have seen the total go under the number in three of their last four against the division, while the Clippers have seen the total dip below the posted number in three of their last four as the home team.

I don’t think the Clippers want to turn this into a “track meet,” instead I expect them to control the tempo and look for this total to fall below the number once it’s all said and done.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* LEGEND is on the Indiana Pacers (7:05 EST).

The 37-38 Indiana Pacers are in Toronto to take on the 45-30 Raptors and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

The Pacers come in desperate here, they lost for the fourth time in five games in a 110-97 road defeat in Memphis on Wednesday. 

Toronto looks poised for a letdown here in my opinion after it had its six game win streak snapped in a 110-106 home loss to Charlotte. Momentum is difficult to attain and once lost, it’s sometimes even more difficult to get back.

Also note, to say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement I think as Toronto has taken three straight and eight of the last nine in the series, including a 116-91 victory at home in the first matchup of the year on March 19th.

Indiana is in eighth spot in the East and will be desperate here as it looks to break the slide of poor play. Indiana averages 104.3 PPG and concedes 105.4. Paul George leads the nightly charge with 22.8 points plus 6.4 boards per game.

The Raptors average 107.2 PPG and concede 103. DeMar DeRozan leads everyone with 27.2 points and 5.3 boards per contest. 

I’ll point out though that Indiana is 11-6 ATS this year following a loss by ten points or more, while Toronto is just 1-2 ATS in its last three off an upset loss as a favorite. 

I think the “hungrier” team is the way to go in this one and while I wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can, play on Indiana.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* CBI Championship Game 3 TOP PLAY is on the over (7:00 EST).

I made a play on Wyoming in Game 2 of the CBI Championship and the Cowboys would go on to wallop the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 81-57. 

Coastal Carolina won the first game 91-81 though, which sets the stage for a dramatic, winner takes all Game 3 for the 2016/17 CBI Tournament Championship on Friday night.

I think we’re going to a similar shootout as to what we saw in the Chanticleers Game 1 victory.

Coastal Carolina averages and concedes 73 PPG. Wyoming averages 77.8 PPG and allows 75.

Neither of these teams is great on the defensive end and note that the Chanticleers have in fact seen the total go over the number in all three road games this year when the total in the contest was set between 150 and 154.5 and in five of six this season after scoring 60 points or less, while the Cowboys have seen the total sail above the posted number in three of four this year after allowing 60 points or less and in two of their last three at home.

The Chanticleers have struggled to guard the three ball, as Wyoming hit 13 three’s in Game 1 and 12 in Game 2. Look for each team to get out and push the pace and for this one to indeed eclipse the number as it comes down the stretch.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (8:05 EST).

The 47-26 Cleveland Cavaliers are in Chicago to take on the 35-39 Bulls and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

It’s going to be all hands on deck for the Cavs today, they’ve lost four of their last six, most recently a humbling 103-74 road loss in San Antonio on Monday. With two extra days off between games and after losing top spot in the East to the Celtics, I’m absolutely expecting LeBron James and company to lay the hammer down tonight though.

Note as well that this is a quadruple revenge game for the Cavaliers, having lost each of the last four meetings with the Bulls. 

Chicago sits just a game behind Miami for the final spot in the East, but note that it’s just 8-10 ATS this year off an upset win as an underdog and only 6-8 ATS following a divisional contest.

Also note that the Cavs have excelled in this spot for bettors, going 4-1 ATS in their last five when playing with two days rest.

This is Cleveland’s most important game so far this entire season and suffice it to say, I look for the defending champions to respond with a resounding performance. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* BAIL-OUT is on the LA Clippers (10:35 EST).

The Washington Wizards are in LA to take on the 44-31 Clippers on Wednesday night and for a couple of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

Note that Washington played just 24 hours previous against the Lakers and suffice it to say, I think it’s going to be “gassed” in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. 

And with tough games at Utah and at Golden State upcoming respectively, it’s certainly not too hard to imagine the Wizards also in some small way getting caught “looking ahead” to those very tough contests. 

The Clippers will be looking to take out their frustrations on someone after letting an 18-point fourth quarter lead go by the way side in a 98-97 setback at home to the Kings. LA currently sits 1.5 games behind Utah for the fourth seed, so it needs to start winning immediately if it has any hopes of securing home court advantage in the first round. 

Also note that this is a “revenge” game as well for LA after the Wizards won 117-110 in Washington on December 18th (note though that the Clippers have won eight straight at home in this series).

With two whole days off to rest, prepare and re-focus, I love the home side to lay a severe beating from start to finish. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* CBI GAME 2 CHAMPIONSHIP PLAY is on Wyoming (9:00 EST).

The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers get ready to battle the Wyoming Cowboys in Game 2 of the CBI Championship and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

It’s a best of three Championship round and Coastal Carolina has already taken the first game 91-81. No need to overanalyze this one in my opinion, as it’s do or die for the Cowboys.

Coastal Carolina took an early 6-4 lead in Game 1 and then never looked back. The Chanticleers average 73.4 PPG and concede 72.8. Jaylen Shaw has averaged 20.2 points over his last four games.

Wyoming averages 77.7 PPG and concedes 75.5. Jason McManamen had 19 points in the Game 1 loss.

I’ll point out though that Coastal Carolina is just 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road, while Wyoming is 5-1 ATS in its last six at home and 20-7-1 ATS in is last 28 following a SU loss. 

The Cowboys are 17-3 at home this year, while the Chanticleers are a pathetic 3-10 on the road. Lay the points with confidence.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Eastern Conference SIDE OF THE WEEK is on the Boston Celtics (7:35 EST).

The Milwaukee Bucks are in Boston to take on the 48-26 Celtics on Wednesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

Milwaukee has a solid defense which ranks in the top 10 in the league, but it plays in Charlotte on Tuesday night and suffice it to say, I think it’s going to be “gassed” in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. 

Boston has taken over top spot in the East and won’t want to give it up. The C’s have won four in a row and seven of their last eight. Boston is ranks eighth in scoring and 14th in points allowed. 

Isaiah Thomas averages 29.1 PPG and six assists per night for Boston. Note that the Celtics are 27-9 at home, while Milwaukee is a few games under .500 on the road.

Also note that the Bucks are just 10-14 ATS in their last 24 in Boston, while the Celtics are 17-12 ATS against teams with winning records this year and interestingly, 10-4 ATS against Central division opponents.

I think Milwaukee comes in flat-footed after the game last night and look for the Celtics to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* SUPER SHOCKER is on the LA Lakers (10:35 EST).

The 45-28 Washignton Wizards are in LA to take on the 21-52 Lakers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

I’m not going to be so bold as to predict an outright upset here, but I do definitely believe that the home side will catch the Wizards “looking past” their lowly opponent today and keep this one a lot closer than what Vegas is leading us to believe.

At the very least, Washington will have the No. 3 seed in the Eastern conference.

Clearly the Wizards are the better team, both on paper and on the floor. However, with a game against the Clippers tomorrow night, followed by tough outings at Utah and Golden State respectively, the stage is set for a classic “trap” game this evening.

LA has nothing to play for and will almost assuredly be the second worst team in the league behind the Nets. But with one of the few remaining home games to put on a show for the crowd, I think the young Lakers come to play.

And I’ll point out that Washington is just 16-17 ATS on the road this season and only 9-15 ATS overall since the All Star break, while LA is 2-1 ATS this year after scoring 85 points or less and interestingly, 6-2 ATS against the Southeast division.

Grab as many points as you can, play on LA.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the under Bucks/Hornets (7:05 EST).

The 37-36 Milwaukee Bucks are in Charlotte to take on the 33-40 Hornets on Monday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. 

The Bucks look to get back on track, they’d won nine of 11 before falling 109-94 at home to the Bulls on Sunday. 

The Hornets also come in with momentum, they’ve won four of their last five, including a 120-106 victory over Phoenix on Sunday as well.

Note that Charlotte has won three straight in the series, including a 107-96 win in the first matchup this year all the way back on October 26th.

Milwaukee is ranked 18th overall in scoring with 104.4 PPG, while ranked ninth defensively in conceding 104.2. Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the nightly charge with 23.1 points, 8.6 boards, 5.3 assists, 1.67 steals and 1.89 blocks per game. The Bucks are effecient from the floor, ranked second in field goal percentage at 47.5 percent, but note that they’re poor from range, ranked 23rd with 8.6 three pointers per game.

Charlotte now sits two games behind Miami for the final playoff spot, so clearly this is an important stretch for the home side. The Hornets are ranked 15th overall in averaging 105.1 PPG, while ranked ninth on the defensive end in conceding 104.2. Kemba Walker leads everyone with 22.9 points and 5.5 assists per game.

I’ll point out that the under is 4-0 in Milwaukee’s last four after giving up 100 points or more in its previous contest, while Charlotte has seen the under go 11-4 in its last 15 after allowing 100 points or more in its previous outing.

Five of these team’s last seven in the series have dipped below the posted number in Charlotte and I think all signs point to another lower-scoring battle. Play the under.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Dallas Mavericks (8:30 EST).

The 41-30 Oklahoma City Thunder are in Dallas to take on the 31-41 Dallas Mavericks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

OKC comes in off a loss in Houston yesterday afternoon and I think will be “gassed” here. Dallas will now look to take advantage and to get back into the winners circle after a 94-86 home loss to Toronto in its latest action.

These teams have already split a pair of meetings this year, each earning the victory on its home floor. Suffice it to say, I expect that trend to carry on here.

Dallas is 21-17 on its home floor and needs to start stringing some wins together immediately if it has any chance whatsoever at making it into the postseason. Desperation breeds motivation and note that the Mavericks are 3-1 ATS in their last four after scoring 86 points or less, while OKC is just 1-2 ATS in its last three in the second game of a back-to-back.

After yesterday’s high-scoring defeat, I think the Thunder come out flat here. The correct call in this one is on the home side, play on Dallas.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Antonio Spurs (8:00 EST).

San Antonio is in a dog fight with the Warriors for top spot in the West and now faces a daunting schedule with the suddenly underachieving defending champion Cavaliers coming to town tonight, followed with matchups at home against Golden State and then at Oklahoma City and then back home for Utah and Memphis.

Cleveland has dropped six of its last ten, including three of its last four.

After tonight’s tough road contest though, the Cavs have much more “winnable” contests against Eastern Conference cellar dwellers in Chicago, Philadelphia, Indiana and Orlando respectively. 

From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up nicely for San Antonio as it looks to start this tough stretch off on the “right foot,” while Cleveland could very well be caught “looking ahead” to the “vanilla” stretch in its schedule.

Also note that the Cavs are just 2-3 ATS this year in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent and only 8-13 ATS after allowing 115 points or more, while San Antonio is 18-6 ATS this season against good offensive teams which score 106 plus points per contest.

Cleveland will be fine, but I think this one means a lot more to the red hot home side. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Raptors (7:30 EST).

The 27-46 Orlando Magic are in Toronto to take on the 44-29 Raptors and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

Orlando comes in complacent here in my opinion, it’s out of the playoff race for a while, but is contented after winning for the third time in four games in Friday’s 115-87 home victory over Detroit. 

The Raptors are rolling, but can ill afford to take the foot off the gas after a previous rough stretch, they enter this one having won five straight, most recently a 94-86 win over Dallas on the road on Saturday. 

Note that this sets up as a “revenge” game as well for Toronto, which has dropped two of three in the season series with Orlando so far, including a 102-94 setback in in the most recent matchup on February 3rd.

Despite the recent “up tick” in play, the Magic are still just 28th in the league in averaging 100.4 PPG, while ranked a sub-par 19th on the defensive end in conceding 106.3 per game.

The Raptors average 106.9 PPG and concede 102.8. Keep your eyes on DeMar DeRozan, who leads the nightly charge with 27.1 points, plus 5.3 boards per game. 

I’ll point out that Orlando 0-4 ATS in its last four when playing on two days rest, while Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last five when playing on one days rest.

Toronto is just three games behind the Celtics with nine games to go. This is a very important contest for the Raptors, one which could be a difference maker in the next two weeks. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting the home side to come in focused on the task at hand and look for it to easily pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Goin Over Total is the over Grizzlies/Warriors (8:05 EST).

The 40-32 Memphis Grizzlies are in Golden State to take on the 58-14 Warriors and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has offensive shootout written all over it.

Golden State has been rolling of late, winner of six straight games, most recently taking down the Kings on Friday night. Memphis will now look to break that string of success and get back into the winners circle itself after it had its four game win streak snapped with consecutive losses at the hands of the Pelicans and Spurs.

Memphis actually gave the Warriors one of their four home losses this year with an OT victory at Oracle back on January 6th. 

But another upset may be hard to come by here against a once again red hot Warriors team, led by a surging Stephen Curry who has gone 28 for 60 from range during the win streak. Note that Golden State did revenge the home loss to the Grizzlies with a resounding 122-107 victory in Memphis last month.

I’ll point out that Memphis has seen the total go over the number in six of ten this year when playing with two days rest, while Golden State has seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of its last four against clubs with winning records.

Memphis would love to steal the season series against the Warriors and I’m expecting it to push the pace from start to finish as it comes in rested after two nights off. 

When you add it all up, I think this number is indeed just a little bit low. Play the over.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on North Carolina (5:05 EST).

The No. 5 Kentucky Wildcats get ready to play the No. 6 North Carolina Tar Heels in the Elite Eight on Sunday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors UNC.

Kentucky rolled by UCLA 86-75 on Friday, while North Carolina edged Butler 92-80. 

Note that the Tar Heels play with revenge here after falling 103-100 at Kentucky on December 17th.

The Wildcats average 85.2 PPG, while conceding 71.4. Malik Monk leads all scorers with 20.1 PPG. One glaring weakness for the Cats is their proficiency at the charity stripe, going a poor 70.5 percent collectively from the foul line this season.

UNC averages 85.2 PPG and leads the nation rebounding with 43.7 boards per game. The Tar Heels concede 70.5 PPG and Justin Jackson leads the nightly charge with 18.2 points and 4.7 boards per game.

I’ll point out that Kentucky is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory, while UNC is 6-2 ATS in its last eight tournament games and 4-1 ATS in its last five non-conference contests.

A lot of talent on display here, but I think UNC’s veteran experience wins out over Kentucky’s youth. Play on the Tar Heels.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* SUPER SHOCKER is on the New York Knicks (8:35 EST).

The 27-45 New York Knicks are in San Antonio to take on the 55-16 Spurs and while I won’t be so bold as to predict an outright upset, I do think that the situation favors the visitors and look for them to keep this one a lot closer than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe.

The Knicks come in under the radar here, they’ve lost four straight and seven of their last eight, most recently a 110-95 setback at Portland on Thursday. 

Conversely, the Spurs come in complacent after winning their third straight and fifth in their last seven by outlasting the Grizzlies 97-90 at home on Thursday. 

New York comes in averaging 105.1 PPG and is fourth in the NBA in rebounding with 45.5 boards per game. The Knicks are poor defensively though, conceding 108.7 per contest. 

San Antonio averages 106.3 PPG and concedes 98.4 Kawhi Leonard leads the way with 25.9 points, 5.9 boards and 1.84 steals per game. 

I’ll point out though that New York has excelled in this spot for bettors this year, going 7-3 ATS after three or more consecutive losses and 22-13 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record, while San Antonio is just 11-16 ATS this season after three or more consecutive victories and just 5-8 ATS following a divisional contest.

Clearly this is a matchup of David vs. Goliath on paper, but not only do the trends support the Knicks in this situation, but so too does the overall “situation.” There’s no doubt that this sets up as a classic “trap” game for the Spurs, with games against the Cavaliers and Warriors on Sunday and Tuesday resepectively. 

I think the visitors do more than enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the ample spread they’ve been afforded as they catch the home side “looking ahead.” Play on New York.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* ELITE 8 SIDE OF THE YEAR is on Gonzaga (6:05 EST).

The No. 11 Xavier Musketeers get ready to battle the No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs in the Elite Eight on Saturday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the favorite.

Neither team has made it to the Championship game in school history. 

Xavier though looks poised for a classic letdown here in my opinion after its upset win over Arizona in the last round. The Musketeers shot a great 52.8 percent from the floor, but were outrebounded 35-27. They also missed five of their 16 free throws. It was an atrocious performance for the Wildcats too.

Suffice it to say, I think Xavier is going to have a much tougher time on the offensive end tonight.

The Bulldogs come in off a 61-58 win over West Virginia, holding the Mountaineers to just 26.7 percent from the floor and only 5 of 23 from behind the arc. 

The Musketeers are overmatched here completely and I’m expecting a complete blowout from start to finish. One player to keep your eyes on is Nigel Williams-Goss, who was held to just ten points last time out, but who presents a difficult matchup for Xavier.

Lay the points with confidence, play on Gonzaga.

Good luck…Larry