My 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE YEAR is the under Mavs/76ers (1:05 EST).

Dallas comes in off a second straight loss, most recently falling 113-106 in OT at Detroit on Friday. Philadelphia has won 13 straight after holding on for a 132-130 OT home win over the Cavaliers on Friday. 

Both teams come in tired and I’m expecting this total to stay well below the posted number once it’s all said and done.

The Mavericks average 102.4 PPG and they concede 105.1. Harrison Barnes leads the nightly charge with 18.8 points and 6.1 boards per game, while rookie Dennis Smith Jr. adds 15.1 points and 5.1 assists per night. Johnathan Motley led the way in the most recent loss though with 26 points and 13 boards. 

The 76ers average 109.4 PPG and they concede 105.4. Big man Joel Embiid will be sitting this one out, meaning that Ben Simmons will be asked to carry the load, he is averaging 16 points, 8.2 boards, 8.2 assists and 1.72 steals per game. 

I’ll point out that Dallas has seen the total go under the number in four of six already this year after playing to three or more consecutive OVERs, while Philadelphia has seen the total dip below the posted number in nine of 13 after allowing 115 points or more this season.

Fatigue is a very real factor at this time of year. The Mavs look poised for another letdown here after their latest collapse, while the 76ers could also be caught “flat footed” after their most recent victory over their most heated rival.

For all the reasons listed above, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* WEST-CONF GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Golden State Warriors (8:30 EST).

New Orleans is in a dog fight in the Western Conference right now, tied for the fifth spot with three other teams. The Pelicans snapped a four-game slide with a 123-95 win at home over Memphis, but I think they’ll struggle here against a Warriors team that comes in with a chip on its shoulder.

The Warriors’ three-game win streak was snapped in a 126-106 road loss at Indiana and the vultures are already circling with star Steph Curry out with injury until the postseason.

If recent history is any precedence though, then the home side has to be liking its chances in this one, as it’s already taken three straight in the series this year, including a 125-11 road win in the most recent matchup all the way back on December 4th.

The Pelicans average 111.3 PPG and they concede 110.7. Anthony Davis leads the nightly charge with 28.1 points, 11.1 boards and 2.49 blocks per game. 

The Warriors average 113.8 PPG and they concede 107.2. Kevin Durant averages 26.5 points, 6.9 boards and 5.4 assists per game. 

I’ll point out though that New Orleans is just 17-18 ATS this year as the underdog, while Golden State is 7-4 ATS this season following a loss by ten points or more.

The Warriors are “injured,” but clearly they’re a very deep team. Head coach Steve Kerr challenged his players after the loss to the Pacers and with Curry sidelined until at least the first round, the rest of the team will be expected to pick up the slack. And here’s the perfect opponent to get untracked against.

I’m expecting a beatdown from start to finish, lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Toronto Raptors (7:30 EST).

Indiana looks poised for a letdown here in my opinion after thrashing the Pacers 126-106 last night, while I believe Toronto builds off its 96-78 win over the Celtics. 

If recent history is any precedence, then Toronto has to be loving its chances today, as it’s already taken two of three in the season series, including a 106-99 victory on the road in the latest matchup on March 15th. 

Indiana averages 105.7 PPG and it concedes 104. Victor Oladipo leads the nightly charge with 23.4 points, plus 5.3 boards and 2.33 steals per game, but it was Bojan Bogdanovic who led the Pacers with 28 points in the win over Golden State.

Toronto averages 112 PPG and it concedes 104.2. DeMar DeRozan leads the way with 23.3 points and 5.2 assists per game, while Kyle Lowry adds 16.3 points, 5.6 boards and 6.8 assists per night. DeRozan led the way in the defensive victory over Boston with 16 points.

I’ll point out that Indiana is still just 18-26 ATS the last two seasons in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent, while Toronto is 17-12 ATS this year following a win by ten points or more

Indiana hasn’t been the best road team this year and it comes in off an epic win at home over the defending champs just last night. Can anyone say letdown spot? 

The Raptors on the other hand are looking to make up some ground after recent shoddy play and they won’t be taking anything for granted here.

Fatigue is a very real factor at this time of year and the second game of a back to back North of the border spells doom for the Pacers in my opinion.

Lay the points, play on the Raptors.

Good luck…Larry

This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the UNDER between the LA Clippers and the Utah Jazz.

The Clippers are in Utah on Thursday night and in my opinion, everything points to more of a defensive battle than a high-scoring shootout.

LA has won five of its last eight and it needs to continue to win if it has any hopes of making the playoffs. So far the Clippers average 109.3 PPG and they concede 108.4. Lou Williams averages 22.7 points and 5.3 assists per game, while DeAndre Jordan adds 12.4 points and 15.4 boards a game. 

Utah is equally as hungry here though as it looks to improve its playoff positioning. It also comes in on top form having won 12 of its last 15. 

The Jazz average only 103.8 PPG, but they make up for it on the defensive end by conceding just 100.2. Donovan Mitchell has been a standout all year by averaging 20.4 points and 3.6 assists per night. 

I’ll point out as well that LA has already seen the total go under the number in nine of 13 this year off an upset win as an underdog, while Utah has seen the total dip below the posted number in six of nine already this season after playing to three or more consecutive “overs.” 

This one should have a playoff like atmosphere. Play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the under Celtics/Raptors (8:00 EST).

Both teams were in action last night and as such, I absolutely believe they’ll each come in with “heavy legs” here.

Boston enters off a 106-102 loss at Milwaukee, while Toronto fell 112-106 in Cleveland. 

These teams played on Saturday night and Boston scored the 110-99 victory at home and suffice it to say, I think we’re going to witness a much more defensive battle this evening between these two Eastern Conference powerhouses.

The Celtics average 104.2 PPG and they concede 100.1. Kyrie Irving is out of the line-up until the playoffs now after a minor surgery, so it’s Al Horford shouldering the nightly load with 12.8 points, 7.4 boards and 4.8 assists per night. 

The Raptors average 112.3 points and they concede 104.5. DeMar DeRozan leads the way with 23.4 points and 5.2 assists per night, while Kyle Lowry adds 16.5 points, 5.6 boards and 6.9 assists per game. 

I’ll point out that Boston has seen the total go under the number in nine of 14 against the division already this year, while Toronto has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of its last seven against divisional opponents. 

Fatigue is a major factor at this time of year. The last thing the undermanned Celtics can do is turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to “hang” with the high-flying Raptors.

Everything points to a defensive affair, play on the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Oklahoma City Thunder (8:00 EST).

The 56-21 Golden State Warriors are in Oklahoma City to take on the 45-33 Thunder on Tuesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

After losing three straight, the Warriors have bounced back to win two in a row. Over lowly Sacramento and Phoenix. 

Kevin Durant led the way for the Warriors in their most recent victory, posting 28 points, 10.5 boards and 6.5 assists. Golden State is pretty much healthy now, however star Stephen Curry remains sidelined likely until the playoffs start with a knee issue.

OKC is just 2-4 in its last six but did bounce back to take out New Orleans most recently, pushing the Thunder to the cusp of clinching a playoff spot. A second win over the defending champs this season would go a long way to re-energize the team for the stretch run.

The Thunder are still a half game behind the Spurs for fourth spot and home court advantage to open the playoffs. The victory over New Orleans was significant to Paul George:

“This is a huge win,” George said afterwards. “This is a great win, playing against an opponent who is in the same position for us. A must win for both teams. It was a step in the right direction for us to pick up a game like this on an opponent’s floor.”

Note that Golden State is just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 road games, while the Thunder are 4-1 ATS in their last five against good offensive teams which average 106-plus points per contest.

The Warriors have issues right now and confidence is one of them. OKC is the “hungrier” team tonight and I think that’ll prove to be the difference.

Lay the points, play on the Thunder.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Michigan (9:20 EST).

I had a play on Villanova in the Final Four in its 95-79 win over Kansas, but I think the Wildcats are going to stumble here against the depth and defensive pressure that the Wolverines bring to the table.

The Wolverines were down by ten with 14:10 left to go in the second half before rallying for their victory over Loyola-Chicago. 

Michigan went down early, but its confidence never waivered and its relentless defensive pressure proved to be just too much for the Ramblers to handle in the end, holding Loyola-Chicago to just one made 3-pointer. 

Mortiz Wagner finished with 24 points and 15 boards for the Wolverines in the victory as Michigan would go on to score 47 points in the second half while shooting 57 percent.

Villanova was red hot in the first half of its Final Four win over the Jayhawks, connecting on 17 of 33 shots, including going 13 of 26 from range. The Wildcats enter the National Championship Game as the No. 1 offense with an average of 87 PPG. 

Michigan though presents difficult matchup problems on the wings and its defense is playing at an elite level right now. Outright win? It’s not out of the question obviously.

But in a game which I think is more even than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe, one which could very well be decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points. 

Play on Michigan.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Denver Nuggets (8:00 EST).

Analysis posted at least six hours before game time.

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Orlando Magic (6:00 EST).

A couple of bottom feeders go head-to-head in this one, but for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visiting side. 

Orlando has lost two in a row and has just two victories out of its last ten, while Atlanta has dropped five straight and nine of ten. 

So where does the advantage lie between two teams which are almost trying to lose at this point so as to better their position in the draft lottery? 

Orlando is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after scoring 84 points or less in its previous contest (fell 90-82 to the lowly Bulls), while Atlanta is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after four or more SU losses.

Both teams are injured, but the continued absence of dynamic guard Dennis Schroeder is clearly weighing heavily on the undermanned Hawks.

Someone has to win this game and I clearly believe that everything points to the Magic coming out on top in this matchup.

While the outright win is obviously not out of the question, I’m going to recommend grabbing the points in the end.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* 34-CLUB PLAY is on Villanova (8:45 EST).

I had a play on Kansas last weekend, but I’m going against the Jayhawks in the Final Four. The Jayhawks advanced with an 85-81 OT win over Duke, while Villanova advanced with a 71-59 victory over Texas Tech. 

Kansas averages 81.4 PPG and it concedes 71. Malik Newman had 32 points in the Elite Eight victory. Overall the Jayhawks won the rebounding battle as well 47-32, helping to overcome 18 turnovers.

And sloppy play like that won’t get the job done against the Wildcats, who enter as the nation’s No. 1 offense with 87 PPG. The defense has been decent as well, conceding 70.5. Jalen Bruson led the way in the most recent victory with 15 points. 

(Additional supporting ATS stats to be added shortly)

These teams are very evenly matched, with plenty of veteran experience. But the Wildcats’ depth (six players averring double figures) will prove to ultimately be too much for Kansas to overcome in my opinion. The Jayhawks battled tooth and nail against the Blue Devils, but I have a hard time seeing Kansas matching pace down the stretch. 

Villanova’s top ranked offense wins out in the end. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Brooklyn Nets (8:00 EST).

Miami comes in having won two straight, including a 103-92 victory over the lowly Bulls on Thursday. 

Brooklyn enters the final stages of the 2017/18 season in familiar territory, as it looks to prepare for the upcoming draft. However, for a number of different reasons I think the Nets are going to be able to keep this one competitive. 

Spencer Dinwiddie has been a bright spot for Brooklyn of late, averaging 12.7 points, 6.5 assists and 3.3 boards per game. The Nets have been fighting hard, winning four out of their last ten. 

The Heat beat Cleveland 98-79 and then carried that momentum over into the victory over Chicago, but I think they’re poised for a letdown here.

And the numbers/trends support that, as note that Miami is a poor 16-18 ATS as the favorite this year and a horrible 2-10 ATS following a win by ten points or more.

Brooklyn on the other hand has been money in the bank for bettors in this spot by going 24-12 ATS on the road this season and 26-16 ATS against teams with winning records. 

I like the visitors to battle though and to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I feel to be a very healthy spread that they’ve been afforded.

Play on Brooklyn.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Loyola Chicago (6:05 EST).

No. 11 Loyola-Chicago is looking for another upset here taking on No. 3 Michigan in the Final Four on Saturday from San Antonio. 

So far the Ramblers have advanced with wins over Miami, Tennessee, Nevada and Kansas State. The Wolverines have made it to this point with victories over Montana, Houston, Texas A&M and Florida State. 

Loyola Chicago averages 72 PPG and it concedes 62.4. The Ramblers shot 57% in their 78-62 destruction of K-State, led by 23 points from Ben Richardson. Loyola Chicago would also hold the Wildcats to just 34 percent shooting. 

Michigan averages 74.1 PPG and it concedes 63.1. The Wolverines shot just 38.8 percent in their win over FSU, but they’d go on to hold the Seminoles to an even worse 32 percent. Charles Matthews was an offensive bright spot with 17 points and eight boards. 

(Additional supporting ATS trends to be added shortly)

The Ramblers have shot at least 50 percent from the floor in their last three games, all coming against very strong defensive teams. Loyola Chicago’s defense has also looked very stout as well.

The Wolverines struggled offensively last time out and it’s not going to get any easier here. The Ramblers appear to be a team of destiny right now and while I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, everything points to this one being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last. 

Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* O/U Oddsmakers Error is the over Loyola Chicago/Michigan (6:05 EST).

No. 11 Loyola-Chicago is looking for another upset here taking on No. 3 Michigan in the Final Four on Saturday from San Antonio. 

So far the Ramblers have advanced with wins over Miami, Tennessee, Nevada and Kansas State. The Wolverines have made it to this point with victories over Montana, Houston, Texas A&M and Florida State. 

Loyola Chicago averages 72 PPG and it concedes 62.4. The Ramblers shot 57% in their 78-62 destruction of K-State, led by 23 points from Ben Richardson. Loyola Chicago would also hold the Wildcats to just 34 percent shooting. 

Michigan averages 74.1 PPG and it concedes 63.1. The Wolverines shot just 38.8 percent in their win over FSU, but they’d go on to hold the Seminoles to an even worse 32 percent. Charles Matthews was an offensive bright spot with 17 points and eight boards. 

These teams are known for their defensive prowess, but I think the value has swung the other way here.  

The Ramblers have shot at least 50 percent from the floor in their last three games, all coming against very strong defensive teams. Loyola Chicago will be looking to get the Wolverines out of their comfort zone, which means a faster paced affair. Faster pace = more shots and more shots = more points. 

(Additional O/U ATS supporting trends to be added shortly)

With the extra time off to prepare and rest, I look for these two hungry teams to push the tempo and for this one to sneak over as it comes down the stretch.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Oddsmakers Error is on the Dallas Mavericks (8:35 EST).

Dallas comes in off a 103-93 loss to the Lakers on Wednesday, while Minnesota comes in sitting in seventh in the Western Conference, only 1.5 games out of the No. 4 seed (also just 1.5 games out of ninth place in the log-jammed Western Conference.) 

The pressure is on Minnesota and while Dallas won’t be playing in the postseason, I do definitely feel that the thought of playing “spoiler” in some small way will help in keeping this one extremely competitive. 

The Wolves enter off a highly-satisfying 126-114 win over Atlanta, getting a monster game from Karl Anthony Towns with 56 points and 15 boards. 

Harrison Barnes was a bright spot for the Mavs in their latest loss to LA with 17 points, while veteran Dirk Nowitzki would add 13. 

I’ll point out as well that Minnesota has really struggled in this spot for bettors all season by going a poor 9-14 ATS after scoring 115 points or more, while Dallas has performed unbelievably well in this position by going 12-4 ATS this year after a loss by ten points or more. 

Minnesota enjoys a night off before a divisional matchup with equally as hungry Utah at home on Sunday, meaning that a potential “look ahead” to that one is definitely not out of the question either for the visitors.

While I’m going to stop short in calling for the outright upset, everything definitely points to this one coming down to the wire. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* O/U Las Vegas Insider is on the over Suns/Rockets (8:05 EST).

The Suns are playing for a top lottery ball this coming summer, but after ten straight losses, including a 111-99 setback at home to the Clippers on Wednesday, I expect the team to come out fired up tonight as it looks to break the string of futility. 

Houston has won ten straight, most recently smashing the lowly Bulls 118-86 at home on Tuesday. When these teams met on January 28th, it was a rather lower-scoring affair in the Rockets’ 113-102 home win, but I think we’re going to see a more wide-open pace this evening.

Phoenix averages 103.8 PPG and it concedes 113.7. Devin Booker averages a team high 24.9 points and 4.7 assists per game, while Elfrid Payton adds 12.7 points and 6.2 assists. Tyler Ulis led the way in a losing cause last time out though with 23. 

Houston averages 113.6 PPG and it concedes 104.2. James Harden leads the nightly charge with 30.7 points, 5.4 boards and 8.7 assists per game and he didn’t even play in the latest victory, given the night off for rest. Houston easily smashed the Bulls, led by 31 points from Eric Gordon. 

I’ll point out that Houston has seen the total go over the number in (not surprisingly), 20 of 35 this year against good offensive teams which score 106 plus points per contest, while Houston has seen the total eclipse the posted number in five of its last seven after scoring 115 points or more. 

The Rockets’ totals have been sky-high all season and for the year Houston has seen the O/U go 33-41 overall. 

But I’m expecting Phoenix to push the pace tonight and with the expected return of Harden as well, I believe this one flies over the posted number comfortably as the game comes down the stretch.

Play the over.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Indiana Pacers (10:00 EST).

Indiana comes in on top form, most recently posting its third straight win in a 92-81 victory at Golden State on Tuesday. 

Sacramento has lost two straight, most recently getting upended by Dallas at home 103-97 on Tuesday. 

If recent history is any precedence, then Indiana has to be loving its chances today as well as it’s taken three straight in the series, including a 101-83 home victory in the first matchup of the season back on October 31st.

The Pacers enter averaging 105.6 PPG, while conceding 103.9. Victor Oladipo leads the nightly charge with 23.2 points, 5.3 boards and 2.25 steals per game average and it was Oladipo who would go on to score 24 points, grab six boards and dish out six assists in the victory over the defending champs.

The Kings average 99.4 PPG and they concede 106.7. De’Aaron Fox averages 11.3 points, 2.6 boards and 4.3 assists per game, while Buddy Hield contributes 13.2 points. Skal Labissiere was a bright spot in the latest setback with 19 points and 18 boards.

I’ll point out that Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last five when playing on one days rest, while Sacramento is just 17-21 ATS at home this year.

Sacramento is dealing with injuries (Randolph questionable) and has absolutely nothing to play for at this point. Indiana on the other hand still has a legitimate shot at running down Cleveland for the division lead and as mentioned off the top, the visitors are playing at any extremely high level right now anyways.

Everything screams “blowout” here. Lay the points, play on the Pacers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is the over Penn State/Utah (7:00 EST).

Penn State advanced with a 75-70 win over Mississippi State, while Utah would rally to take down Western Kentucky 69-64. 

The Nittany Lions average 74.6 PPG and they allow 66.7. Penn State has averaged 75.2 PPG and conceded 69.1 in all neutral court affairs this year. The Nittany Lions’ defense looked sharp in holding the Bulldogs to just 39.6 percent shooting. Leading the offensive attack was Tony Carr with 21 points, while Shep Garner added 18.

Utah has looked great in this tournament as well, going on the road to take out a tough St. Mary’s team, before then gutting out the victory over WKU. Utah averages 73.7 PPG and it concedes 68.1. The Utes have averaged 69 PPG and allowed 72 in all neutral site match ups this season.

Utah hit 47.9 percent from the floor in its latest win led by 19 points from Justin Bibbins. 

I’ll point out that Penn State has seen the total go over the number in eight of 13 on the road this year and in 15 of 26 against schools with winning records, while Utah has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last nine after holding its previous opponent to 64 points or less.

These are two teams which predicate themselves on their tough defensive play, but I’m anticipating a faster paced Final. This can still be a tight, lower-scoring game and go over this very low total, and that’s exactly what I’m expecting.

This number is just a little low, play the over.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the New York Knicks (7:05 EST).

I don’t normally play underdogs of this size, but for this one I’m going to bend my “rule.” And while I’m definitely not calling for the outright upset, for a number of different reasons I feel that this one will be a lot more competitive in the end than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

New York won’t be in the postseason, but it comes into this one playing competitively overall right now, most recently falling 137-128 in OT to Charlotte on the road on Monday. 

The 76ers come in complacent though in my opinion after seven straight victories, most recently a 123-104 home win over Denver on Monday. 

Note as well that this is an in-season triple-revenge scenario for the Knicks, as the 76ers have taken all three previous meetings this year, including a 118-110 road victory in the most recent on March 15th. 

New York averages 104.5 PPG and it concedes 107.9. Trey Burke had 42 points and 12 assists in the loss to Charlotte. 

Philadelphia averages 108.7 PPG and it concedes 105.5. The 76ers won the rebounding battle 54-37 in their win over the Nuggets, helping offset 17 turnovers. Big man Joel Embiid led the way with 20 points in the victory. 

I’ll point out though that Philadelphia is just 5-9 ATS against the division this year, while New York is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent. 

New York may be tired here, but Philadelphia becomes a victim of complacency in my opinion.

Look for the Knicks to battle tough and to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the ample spread they’ve been afforded in this one.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on UIC (7:00 EST).

The winner of this game will advance to the CIT Championship Game. Illinois Chicago comes in red hot, putting up at least 81 points in each of its first two tournament wins. 

Liberty averages only 71.4 PPG, but it put up 84 in its latest victory. 

The Flames most recently beat Austin Peay 83-81, putting up 52 points in the second half, while shooting 43.5 percent from range. Marcus Ottey led the way in the victory with 17 points, but in all four of five starters would post double figures in scoring.

Liberty comes in off the 84-71 home win over Central Michigan, also using a big second half to pull away for good, outscoring the Chips by 13 points after the break. Liberty would go on to shoot 56.1 percent from the floor, including 44 percent from range. Four players would reach double figures in scoring, led by Ryan Kemrite with 21. 

Note though that Liberty is 0-2 ATS in its last two after scoring 80 points or more in its previous contest, while Illinois Chicago is 5-1 ATS this season when playing with five or six days of rest.

The Flames come in playing at an extremely high level offensively right now and I believe that chemistry will keep this one competitive until the final moments.

Everything point to a “nail biter,” so grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Mississippi State (9:30 EST).

It’s No. 4 Mississippi State against No. 4 Penn State in the semifinal of the NIT from Madison Square Garden on Tuesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the team from the SEC.

The Bulldogs average 74 PPG, while shooting 47 percent from the floor collectively. Quinndary Weatherspoon leads the nightly charge with 15 PPG. Note that Mississippi State is stout defensively, conceding just 64 PPG. 

The Nittany Lions average 75 PPG on 46 percent shooting, led by 20 points and five assists a night from guard Tony Carr. Penn State’s offense might be slightly better, but its defense has been its weak point this season.

Additionally I’ll point out that Mississippi State is 27-20 ATS in its last 47 when playing the role of underdog, while Penn State is just 3-6 ATS this season after scoring 80 points or more in its previous contest.

I think the Bulldogs’ fough defense slows down the Nittany Lions here and while I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for this one to be a “nail biter.”

Play on Mississippi State.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Miami Heat (8:00 EST).

Cleveland comes to South Beach off a 121-114 road win over the Nets on Sunday, while Miami enters off a 113-107 OT loss to Indiana in its latest action. 

Note that this is an in-season double revenge scenario for the home side as Cleveland has taken both earlier meetings this year. 

Cleveland averages 111.1 PPG and it concedes 110.3. LeBron James leads the nightly charge with 27.5 points per game, while Kevin Love adds 18 points and 9.4 boards per game. 

Miami averages 103.3 PPG and it concedes 103.1. Hassan Whiteside remains out with injury, but I still think the Heat show up in a big way here as they try to avenge the two earlier losses to the Cavs. Tyler Johnson was a standout in the losing cause to the Pacers most recently with 19 points. 

From a trend based stand point though, there’s no question that this one highly favors the home side, as note that Cleveland is just 11-18 ATS this year after scoring 115 points or more in its previous contest, while Miami is 70-48 ATS in its last 118 when trying to revenge a loss against an opponent and 22-15 ATS this year when playing the role of underdog.

I think the Cavs get caught a little complacent here after their five-game win streak and while the outright isn’t out of the question obviously, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Heat.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Utah (7:00 EST).

It’s the 27-10 WKU Hilltoppers against the 21-11 Utah Utes in the semi finals of the NIT at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday night and for a for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the team from the Pac 12.

WKU enters off a 92-84 win over Oklahoma State, led by 30 points and eight boards from Taveion Hollingsworth. Dwight Coleby was another bright spot with 16 points, 13 boards and three blocks. 

The Hilltoppers come into this one averaging 78.8 PPG. Utah comes into this one averaging only 73.8 PPG, but it makes up for it on the defensive end. Utah looked particularly stingy last time out in its 67-58 victory over St. Mary’s. 

Sedrick Barefield was a bright spot offensively with 19 points and four assists in that one, while Ryler Rawson would add 17 points. 

Saint Mary’s is one of the toughest offenses in the nation, so the Hilltoppers are going to have their hands full here. 

Defense doesn’t always win championships and the Utes may not ultimately go on to win the entire NIT, but I do think their smothering play will ultimately prove to be too much for WKU to overcome this time.

Play on Utah.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on North Texas (10:00 EST).

This is Game 1 of the best of three championship series for the CBI Tournament crown, with North Texas facing off against San Francisco. 

The Mean Green advanced by taking down Jacksonville State 90-68 at home on Wednesday, while the Dons held on for a 65-62 win over Campbell in their semi-final matchup. 

North Texas averages 74.5 PPG and it concedes 71.4. Roosevelt Smart had 20 points in the most recent victory as the Mean Green would go on to hit a smoking 61.5 percent from the floor in the win, including going a lights out 14 of 20 from range (also won the rebound battle decisively, 38-23.)

San Francisco comes into this one averaging 68.9 PPG, while conceding 68.4. The Dons have won three straight close ones to advance, with the victories coming by a total of 12 combined points. Frankie Ferrari was a bright spot in the most recent with 18 points and six assists. 

I’ll point out though that home court has been anything but an advantage for the Dons this year, as they come in at just 6-11 ATS at home this season (and only 7-13 ATS when playing the role of favorite).

And that’s bade news facing a Mean Green team which has excelled away from friendly confines this season, as UNT is 12-4 ATS on the road thus far (also note that it’s 14-6 ATS as an underdog this year as well.)

I think UNT is playing the best overall ball in this tournament right now and while the Dons do have a great defense, I can’t see San Francisco keeping pace offensively.

Grab the points, play on the Mean Green.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Denver Nuggets (7:00 EST).

Denver comes to town having won two straight, most recently getting the better of Washington 108-100 on the road on Friday, while Philadelphia has won six straight, most recently a 120-108 home victory over the Wolves on Saturday. 

Note that this is a revenge game for the visitors, as Philadelphia snagged the 107-102 road win in the first matchup this year back on December 30th.

Denver comes in averaging 109.8 PPG and it concedes 108.3. Paul Millsap puts up 13.8 points and 6.1 boards per game, while Gary Harris contributes a team high 17.7 points. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray each had 25 points in the most recent victory.

Philadelphia averages 108.5 PPG and it concedes 105.5. Joel Embiid averages 23.3 points, 11 boards and 1.79 blocks per night, while Ben Simmons adds 16 points, 7.9 boards, eight assists and 1.75 steals per night. Embiid led the way in the most recent victory with 19 points.

I’ll point out though that Denver’s done extremely well in this spot for bettors all year, going 7-3 ATS in trying to revenge a home loss.

Conversely, this is a position in which Philadelphia has struggled in, going just 1-4 ATS in its last five after three or more consecutive SU victories.

Philadelphia has hit a vanilla part of its schedule, with its non-conference opponent tonight, followed by the Knicks, Hawks, Hornets and Nets. 

While I do think the outright upset isn’t out of the question, I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can in the end as I believe Philadelphia gets caught complacent and looking ahead and I expect the talented Nuggets to take advantage.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* O/U Oddsmakers Error is the over Heat/Pacers (5:05 EST).

Miami’s three-game win streak was snapped with a 105-99 setback at Oklahoma City on Friday, while Indiana enters off a 109-104 home win over the Clippers on Friday. 

So far Miami has taken two of three in this season series, including a 114-106 victory in the most recent matchup here on January 10th. 

The Heat average 103.3 PPG and they concede 103. Goran Dragic averages 17.7 points, four boards and 4.8 assists per game, while James Johnson adds 10.7 points, 4.8 boards and 3.9 assists per game. Johnson led the way in the losing cause last time out with 23 points. 

After losing three of four, the Pacers finally got untracked in their last game against LA and I believe the team carries that momentum over here. Indiana averages 105.7 PPG and it concedes 104.2. Victor Oladipo leads the nightly charge with 23.2 points, 5.3 boards and 2.24 steals per game, while Myles Turner adds 13.6 points, 6.8 boards and 1.94 blocks a night. It was Bojan Bogdanovic which led the way in the victory over the Clippers though with 28 points.

I’ll point out as well that Miami has seen the total go over the number in nine of its last 15 against teams with winning records and in 14 of 21 overall since the All Star Game, while Indiana has seen the total eclipse the posted number in five of its last seven after scoring 108 points or more in its previous contest.

These are two Eastern Conference teams hungry for a win and everything points to a high-scoring shootout. Play the over.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Kansas (5:05 EST).

Duke enters the Elite Eight off a much tougher than expected 69-65 win over Syracuse, while Kansas advanced with a tougher than expected 80-76 victory over Clemson. 

Duke averages 84.4 PPG and it concedes 69.2. The Blue Devils allowed the Orange to hit 49 percent of their shots, but they’d give up just four three-pointers. Duke also forced 15 turnovers, while committing only seven of its own. 

The Blue Devils though shot just 39.3 percent from the floor in the victory, including only 19.4 percent from range. Marvin Bagley III led the way with 22 points, while Grayson Allen added 15.

Kansas averages 81.4 PPG and it concedes 71. The Jayhawks needed to hit free throws down the stretch to hold off Clemson in the Round of 16. Overall though Kansas looked pretty good, hitting 46.7 percent from the floor, including 45.5 percent from range. 

The Jayhawks have struggled defensively in the tournament, but they looked better against the Tigers by holding them to 43.1 percent shooting, including only 30 percent from range. 

(Additional supporting ATS stats to be added shortly)

Both teams struggled more than they should have in the Sweet 16, but each managed to dig down and gut out the victory. Kansas though has gotten progressively better as the tournament has worn on, while it appears Duke is heading in the opposite direction. 

I’m banking on these trends continuing as I believe the Jayhawks will be just too much for the Blue Devils to handle down the stretch. 

That said, grab the points!

Good luck…Larry

My 9* O/U PERFECT STORM is the under Texas Tech/Villanova (2:20 EST).

Texas Tech comes in off a 78-65 win over Purdue, while Villanova advanced off a high-scoring 90-78 victory over WVU. These schools have never met before, but in my opinion this one has the feel of a “chess match,” rather than a “run-and-gun shootout.” 

Texas Tech averages 75 PPG and it concedes just 64.6. The Red Raiders would force the Boilermakers into 17 turnovers, while committing just ten of their own. Texas Tech has turned up the heat on the defensive end of the floor so far in The Big Dance, allowing just 63.7 thus far. Keenan Evans led the way in the latest victory with 16 points, while Zach Smith added 14.

Villanova averages 87 PPG and it concedes 70.5. The Wildcats own the No. 1 offense in the nation, but I think they’ll have difficulties today against the Aggies aggressive attack. Note that Villanova did commit 16 turnovers in the latest win, but overall the defense looked good by holding the high-flying Mountaineers to just 38.6 percent shooting. 

(updated supporting O/U trends to be added shortly)

Fatigue is a very real factor at this point of the tournament and after each team played to such a high-scoring victory last time out, I think we’re going to see a more methodical pace this afternoon as these two hopeful sides battle to the end. 

This number is a little high, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Michigan (8:40 EST).

It’s the 23-11 Florida State Seminoles against 31-7 Michigan in the Elite Eight on Saturday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Wolverines.

FSU upset Gonzaga 75-60 on Thursday, holding the Bulldogs to just 33.9 percent shooting. Terance Mann led the way with 18 points, five boards, two assist and one block in the victory. 

The Seminoles enter the Elite Eight averaging 81.1 PPG, while conceding 73.7. 

The Wolverines average 73.8 PPG and they concede just 63.1. Michigan’s offense though was firing on all cylinders in its 99-72 destruction of Texas A&M on Thursday (I had the Wolverines in that one), another school which predicates itself on its tough defensive play. 

Michigan shot an unreal 61.9 percent from the floor in the victory, including a blistering 58.3 percent from range and I’m fully expecting the team to carry that confidence and momentum over here. Mhaummad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman led the way in the win with 24 points, five boards, seven assists and a steal.

(Additional supporting ATS trends added shortly.)

FSU has looked good on both ends of the court, but it runs into a “buzz saw” in Michigan right now. The Wolverines have one of the best defenses in the nation, and now their offense is firing on all cylinders as well.

All signs point to a blowout, lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Dallas Mavericks (8:30 EST).

I base my picks on many different things. I think this one sets up nicely for the Mavericks for a number of different reasons.

The Hornets come off back-to-back wins, including a 140-79 victory over the Grizzlies in their last outing. Not only do I believe that Charlotte will come in complacent here after their epic blowout win, but I also expect it to get caught “looking ahead” to upcoming home games against the Knicks and Cavs. 

The Mavericks won’t be playing in the postseason, but they’ll be eager to break a four-game slide. Dallas has for the most part been a complete disappointment this year, but note that is has in fact done decently in this spot for bettors by going 12-7 ATS after three or more consecutive SU losses and 10-6 ATS in its last 16 against good offensive teams which average 106 plus points per contest.

Charlotte on the other hand is a poor 8-11 ATS this season after a win by ten points or more and only 13-20 ATS on the road.

I’m banking on the home side doing just enough to secure the victory, play on the Mavericks.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* ELITE 8 GAME OF THE YEAR is on Kansas State (6:05 EST).

It’s the 31-5 Loyola Chicago Ramblers vs. the 25-11 K-State Wildcats on Saturday night in the Elite Eight and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Kansas State.

The Ramblers are on one of those “Cinderalla” runs right now after getting the better of Nevada 69-68 in the regional semifinal on Thursday. Marques Townes led the way in that one with 18 points, including the last second three-pointer to seal the deal. 

Loyola Illinois averages just 71.8 PPG, making up for it on the defensive end by conceding only 62.4. 

Kansas State averages 71.6 PPG and it concedes just 63.4. The Wildcats looked particularly impressive in their 61-58 win over Kentucky, led by 22 points and nine boards from Xavier Sneed, while Barry Brown added 13 points. 

Loyola Illinois has been the biggest surprise of The Tournament so far, but I think it’s set up for a big letdown here. Beating Nevada is no small feat, but K-State is playing at an entirely different level right now in my opinion, as its dominating win over Kentucky has me convinced.

(Additional supporting ATS stats to be posted shortly.) 

I think Kansas State is the better overall team and I look for it to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on Texas Tech (9:55 EST).

It’s No. 2 Purdue against No. 3 Texas Tech in the final game of the Sweet 16 on Friday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the defensive minded Aggies. 

Purdue advanced to this point off wins against CS Fullerton and Butler, while Texas Tech beat Stephen F. Austin and Florida. 

The Red Raiders’ dynamic defense was on full display in their 69-66 win over the Gators on Saturday. Texas Tech would go on to shoot 44 percent from the floor, while holding Florida to just 39 percent. 

Keenan Evans led the way in the victory with 22 points, while Zhaire Smith added 18 points and nine boards. 

For the season Texas Tech averages 74.9 points and it concedes 64.6. 

The Boilermakers average 80.8 PPG and they concede 65.4. Purdue would hold on for a 76-73 win over Butler, but I think it’s going to come up short here against the Red Raiders’ relentless defense. 

Purdue lost the services of 7-foot center Isaac Haas in Round 2 to injury and its depth carried it in the win over the Bulldogs, but I have a hard time seeing the the Boilermakers maintaining that same drive against a Texas Tech team that’s simply firing on all cylinders right now.

Vincent Edwards was a bright sot in the win over Butler with 20 points, while Carsen Edwards, the team’s leading scorer, was held to just 13. 

I’ll point out as well that Texas Tech has done well in this spot for bettors of late by going 7-3 ATS in its last ten following a SU victory, while Purdue has struggled in this position by going just 1-7-1 ATS in its last eight against a team with a wining percent above .600. 

The table is set for another outright upset, but in the end I’ll recommend that you grab as many points as you can. Play on the Red Raiders.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Miami Heat (8:00 EST).

OKC comes in off disheartening 100-99 loss to Boston and I think it’s going to get caught flat footed here as well against another tough Eastern Conference opponent. 

The Heat come in with momentum as well after smashing the Knicks 119-98 in their most recent outing (their third straight victory.) Kelly Olynyk led the way with 22 points and 10 assists, while Wayne Ellington added 16 points. 

After its six game win streak came to a halt in such dramatic fashion last time out (the Thunder would lose to the Celtics on a late three by Marcus Morris), all signs point to a classic letdown for OKC in this spot as well. Russell Westbrook led the way in the losing cause with 27 points, eight boards and seven assists. 

The Heat don’t have big man Hassan Whiteside in the line-up, but Miami is shooting the ball well right now and I think they’ll keep this one competitive. Also note that the Heat are 22-13 ATS on the road this year and 19-11 ATS against clubs with winning records.

And as good as the Thunder have looked at times this year, this is in fact a position in which they’ve struggled in for bettors by going a horrible 8-16 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite and a brutal 15-20 ATS in front of the home town crowd.

I’m not calling for the outright upset, but everything points to a “nail biter.” Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Villanova (7:35 EST).

The 26-10 WVU Mountaineers get ready to battle the 32-4 Villanova Wildcats on Friday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the favorite. 

WVU got to this point after taking down Marshall 94-71, led by 28 points from Jevon Carter. Lamont West was a standout as well with 18 points and ten boards. 

The Mountaineers enter the Sweet 16 averaging 80.2 PPG. 

The Wildcats average 86.9 PPG (No. 1 in the country.) Villanova smashed Alabama 81-58 in its last outing, led by 23 points from Mikal Bridges and 18 points from Donte DiVencenzo. 

(I plan to update my analysis closer to game time with a few more stats, but the bulk of analysis is here)

The Mountaineers did a great job in slowing down Murray State and Marshall, two schools which are also “offense oriented,” but clearly Villanova is on an entirely different level. WVU’s calling card is its tough defensive play, but I think it will struggle to contain the Wildcats’ dynamic offense, which gets the job done both on the inside and out.

I’m expecting a solid cover from Villanova here. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Indiana Pacers (7:00 EST).

LA broke a four-game slide with a 127-120 road win in Milwaukee on Wednesday, while Indiana fell 96-92 in New Orleans on Wednesday. 

The Clippers come into this one averaging 109.5 PPG and they concede 108.7. Tobias Harris averages 18.5 points and 5.6 boards, while Avery Bradley adds 14.3. DeAndre Jordan is the big man in the middle and he provides 12.3 points and 15.4 boards a night and he had 25 points and 25 boards in the victory over the Bucks.

The Pacers average 105.6 PPG and they concede 104.2. Victor Oladipo posted 21points and eight boards in the loss to the Pelicans. 

From a trend based stand point, this one definitely favors the home side though, as note that LA has struggled in this spot for bettors by going 1-4 ATS in its last five when playing on one days rest and just 1-5 ATS in its last six following a SU victory, while Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a loss in which it scored 93 points or less in. 

The Pacers still have a shot at home court advantage through the playoffs and they catch a Clippers team looking ahead to their road trip finale in Toronto. 

I like Indiana to defend home its home floor, lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Wizards (7:00 EST).

The Nuggets snapped a two game slide with a 135-102 win at Chicago on Wednesday, while the Wizards’ two game win streak came to an end in Wednesday’s 98-90 loss in San Antonio. 

If recent history is any precedence though, then Washington has to be liking its chances tonight as it’s taken three straight in this series, including the first one this year 109-104 back on October 23rd.

Denver comes into this one averaging 109.8 PPG and it concedes 108.4. Nikola Jokic leads the nightly charge with 17.5 points, 10.5 boards and six assists per game, while Garry Harris adds a team high 17.7 points. Paul Millsap led the way with 22 points, eight boards and five steals in the victory over the Bulls.

Washington averages 107.3 PPG and it concedes 106. Bradley Beal is the leader with John Wall sidelined with injury and he averages 23.2 PPG, while Otto Porter Jr. adds 14.8 points, 6.5 boards and 1.6 steals per contest. 

I’ll point out that the Nuggets are already just 1-4 ATS in their last five when playing on one days rest and 0-4 ATS in their last four following a straight up victory of more than ten points, while the Wizards are 6-2 ATS in their last eight after scoring 90 points or less in their previous outing.

The Nuggets lost to Memphis and Miami before the win over the Bulls. Washington struggled against the red hot Spurs, but a little home cooking is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked.

Lay the points, play on the Wizards.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Kansas (7:05 EST).

It’s the ACC vs. the Big 12 in the Sweet 16 and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Jayhawks.

Clemson got to this point off an 84-53 win over Auburn in the second round, while Kansas advanced with a tight 83-79 win over Seton Hall.

The Tigers average only 73.8 PPG, but they make up for it on the other end of the floor by conceding just 65.5 PPG. Clemson smashed Auburn on both ends of the floor and it was led by Gabe DeVoe with 22 points.

Kansas averages 81.4 PPG and it concedes 70.9. The Jayhawks shot 50.0 percent from the floor in their latest victory, including 42.9 percent from range. Malik Newman had 28 points in the victory, while Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk had 16. 

Clemson put on a show last time out, but it faces a much stiffer test this time around. I think the Tigers are poised for a letdown here.

The Jayhawks hold the significant advantage on both ends of the floor and I look for their superior offense to be the difference at the end of the night.

Lay the points with confidence, play on Kansas.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Gonzaga (10:05 EST).

It’s No. 9 FSU taking on No. 4 Gonzaga in the Sweet 16 on Thursday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Bulldogs. 

Florida State upset No. 1 Xavier 75-70 on Sunday and suffice it to say, I think it’s set up for a letdown here.

Gonzaga would go on to take down Ohio State 90-84 in its second round matchup on Saturday. 

Florida State averages 81.1 and it concedes 73.7. Braian Angola had 15 points in the upset victory over Xavier as the Seminoles would go on to hit 8 of 23 from range and shoot 43.6 percent overall.

The Bulldogs average 84.2 PPG and they concede just 67.5. Zach Norvell Jr. had 28 points in the victory over Ohio State.

Gonzaga led at the half in that one by 11 points, but it actually trailed 67-62 with 6:02 left to play in the game, before then going on a 16-2 run. 

I’ll point out that Florida State is just 1-5 ATS in its last six following a SU victory, while Gonzaga is 4-1 ATS in its last five against teams with winning SU records.

The Bulldogs let their foot off the gas against the Ducks, but Gonzaga won’t make the same mistake twice. While these teams are pretty evenly matched on the offensive end, it’s the Bulldogs’ defensive prowess which tips the scales in their favor in this matchup.

Lay the points, play on Gonzaga.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Detroit Pistons (8:05 EST).

I don’t normally play underdogs of this size, but I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on hungry Detroit.

The Rockets are arguably the best team in the league this year. After a tough loss in Toronto Houston has reeled off six straight victories, including a tight 115-111 win at Portland last time out. 

This is the opener of an extended home stretch for the Rockets, with upcoming games against Detroit tonight, followed by lightweights New Orleans, Atlanta, Chicago and Phoenix. 

After three straight road wins, I do absolutely feel that this sets up as a letdown spot for the Rockets vs. their non-conference opponent this evening. 

The Pistons on the other hand are in a dog-fight right now for a playoff spot in the East, but they do come into this one with momentum after back-to-back road victories, most recently downing the Suns 115-88 on Tuesday. 

Note that Detroit is 5-2 ATS already this year after playing three consecutive road games, while Houston is just 10-15 ATS in non-conference contests this season.

Sure the Pistons’ recent victories have been over the bottom feeders in the West, but I still think they’re going to keep this one competitive. 

The Rockets should still win this one straight up, but the conditions are definitely right for a much closer battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

I’m grabbing the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on Michigan (7:35 EST).

It’s the SEC vs. the Big Ten in this Sweet 16 matchup and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Wolverines.

Texas A&M advanced with a stunning 86-65 win over No. 2 UNC on Sunday and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a predictable letdown here after one of the program’s biggest ever victories. 

Michigan got to this point by ousting No. 6 Houston 64-63 on Saturday night by the help of a last second buzzer beater. 

Texas A&M averages 75.3 PPG and it concedes 69.6. The Aggies shot 51.7 percent from the floor in the win over the Tar Heels and they won the rebound battle 50-36. TJ Starks would lead the charge with 21 points.

Michigan averages 73.8 PPG and it concedes 63.1. Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman would post 12 points in the Wolverines one-point second round victory. 

I’ll point out though that the Aggies are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine after scoring 80 points or more in their previous game in which they were the underdog, while the Wolverines are 6-2 ATS in their last eight after scoring 65 points or less in their previous outing.

Michigan found a way to get the job done last time out despite not being close to its best. I don’t expect that to happen twice and while A&M found a way to slow down the high-flying Tar Heels, the Wolverines would love nothing more than to slow this one down and exert their will slowly.

All signs point to a rout, lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Washington Wizards (9:30 EST).

Washington comes to town with momentum after two straight wins. Bradley Beal had 19 points and big man Marcin Gortat added 18 in the Wizards most recent 109-102 victory at home over the Pacers. 

This game means a lot to the Wizards still, as they’re in a battle for home court advantage in the Eastern Conference at 40-30 and sitting just a half-game back of the Pacers for the No. 4 seed.

San Antonio has been playing a lot better, winner of four straight and coming off an impressive 89-75 win at home over the Warriors. LaMarcus Aldridge led the way in that one with 33 points and 12 boards. The Spurs sit just one game back of OKC for home court advantage in the playoffs, but with a tough game at home against Utah on Friday, followed by an extended Eastern road swing, it’s definitely not too hard to imagine the home side finally having a letdown here against its non-conference opponent.

And that’s exactly what I’m banking on happening. 

Note as well that Washington is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 when playing with three or more days rest, while San Antonio is just 14-19 ATS this season against good offensive teams which average 106-plus points per contest.

For all the reasons listed above, play on the Wizards.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Western Kentucky (8:00 EST).

WKU is off an upset 79-75 road win over USC and I believe the Hilltoppers come in “under the radar” here as well. OKS enters off a 71-65 home win over Stanford. 

Western Kentucky averages 78.4 PPG and it concedes 70.0. The Hilltoppers shot 53.6 percent from the floor in their win over the Trojans, while also hitting 16 of 17 free throw attempts. Justin Johnson led the way with 23 points, while Dwight Coleby added 13. Note that WKU is 8-5 on the road this season, averring 79.5 points and conceding 76.5 in those contests.

OKS averages 76.4 PPG and it concedes 72.7 (is better at home with 79.2 and 69.6 respectively.) The Cowboys looked decent defensively against the Cardinal, but overall that’s been their weak point this year. Oklahoma Stats is known for its offense, but note though that it shot just 35.7 percent from the floor in the win over Stanford. Jeffrey Carroll led the way in the victory with 26 points. 

I’ll point out as well that WKU is 7-1 ATS in all tournament games this year, while OKS is just 2-4 ATS in the same position.

OKS is 15-5 at home this season, but the Hilltoppers won’t be going down without a fight. These teams are very evenly matched and I believe this one is going to be decided by whichever one has its hands on the ball last. 

And because of that, I’m grabbing the points. 

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (7:00 EST).

Toronto comes in off a much-harder than expected 93-86 win at Orlando just last night and suffice it to say, I’m definitely expecting a classic “letdown” from the visitors here.

The Raptors annihilated the Cavaliers 133-99 in mid January and now it’s payback time for LeBron James and company. 

The Cavs come in with some momentum as well as they’ve won two straight, most recently a 124-117 home victory against Milwaukee on Monday. 

The Raptors average 112.5 PPG and they concede 103.9. DeMar DeRozan averages 23.7 points and 5.1 assists per night, while Kyle Lowry adds 16.4 points, 5.6 boards and 6.7 assists per game. 

The Cavaliers average 110.5 PPG and they concede 110.2. James averages 27.3 points, 8.7 boards and nine assists per game, while Kevin Love adds 17.9 points and 9.3 boards a night. 

With a game at home against the lowly Nets on Friday, I think the Raptors finally have a letdown here.

This is a big game for Cleveland and I expect James to rally the troops and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

Play on the Cavaliers.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* O/U Oddsmaker’s Error is on the under Clippers/Wolves (8:00 EST).

These two Western Conference teams are banged up and injured and each is playing for a spot in the postseason. When the smoke clears at the end of this one, I expect this total to stay well below the posted number.

The Clippers will be desperate here after three straight losses, most recently a 122-109 setback at home to Portland on Sunday.

The Wolves can empathize as they’ve lost two straight, most recently a 129-120 setback at home to the Rockets.

LA plays with revenge here as Minnesota has taken five straight in the series, including all three so far this year (including a high-scoring 126-118 road win in the latest matchup back on January 22nd.)

The Clippers average 109.3 PPG and they concede 108.3. DeAndre Jordan puts up 12 points and 15.4 boards per game, while Lou Williams adds 23 points and 5.3 assists per night. Williams was a bright spot in LA’s latest loss with 30 points off the bench.

The Wolves average 109.8 PPG and they concede 107.6. Karl-Anthony Towns averages 20.7 points and 12.2 boards per game, but it was Jeff Teague that led the way in a losing cause against Houston with 23 points and 11 assists. 

These teams are similar in that neither plays a lick of defense and each is always looking to push the pace. That’s why it’s important to note that LA has in fact seen the total go under the number in 13 of its last 21 after three or more consecutive losses, while Minnesota has seen the total dip below the posted number in 17 of its last 27 when the total in the contest is greater than or equal to 220.

I’m expecting an all out war from start to finish and for this total to sneak below the posted number once the final horn blares.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Penn State (7:00 EST).

Penn State got 24 points from Tony Carr to beat Notre Dame on the road on Saturday and I think that the Nittany Lions are going to carry that momentum over here. 

Penn State was led by 18 points and nine boards from Josh Reaves, while Shep Garner added 15 points in the win over the Irish. The Nittany Lions got the job done on the defensive end of the floor though, holding ND to just 38.3 percent shooting and only 4 of 22 from range. 

For the season Penn State averages 74.2 PPG and it concedes just 66.5. 

Marquette averages 81.4 PPG, but it needs to push the pace as it concedes an average of 78.3. The Golden Eagles shot 12 of 26 from range in the win over the Ducks and they hit 57.6 percent of their shots from the floor overall. Andrew Rowsey led the way with 29 points and nine assists.

I’ll point out though that Penn State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight on the road, while Marquette is a poor 2-6 ATS in its last eight following an ATS victory and just 6-15 ATS in its last 21 after scoring more than 90 points in its previous game.

The Nittany Lions’ defense is firing on all cylinders and they’re playing better offensively as well. The Golden Eagles can’t stop anybody and I have a hard time seeing them keeping pace down the stretch.

Grab the points, play on Penn State.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* PEFECT STORM pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Saint Mary’s (11:00 ET).

Washington enters the second round of the NIT off a 77-74 win over Boise State, while Saint Mary’s crushed Southeastern Louisiana 89-45 at home. 

Washington averages 74.4 PPG and it concedes 72.6. The Huskies shot 47.4 percent against Boise State and they were led by 25 points from Jaylen Nowell. 

The Huskies have been better at home that on the road, as they’ve averages just 69.4 points and concede 73.2 away from friendly confines this season.

Saint Mary’s averages 77.3 PPG and it concedes just 63.9. Note that it’s been even better at home though by averaging 78.3 points and conceding just 59.8. The Gaels shot a blistering 59.3 percent in their opening round win and I simply can’t see the Huskies keeping pace down the stretch. 

I’ll point out as well that Washington is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine non-conference games, while St. Mary’s is 4-1 ATS in its last five in the same position. 

The Huskies had a decent season, but the Gaels present a very difficult matchup here. I think Saint Mary’s continues to play with a chip on its shoulder as it looks to run up this score once again.

Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on LSU (9:00 EST).

It’s No. 2 seed Utah hosting No. 3 seed LSU in the second round of the NIT on Monday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the dog.

LSU was dropped early in the SEC Tournament, but it answered with an 84-76 victory over Louisiana Lafayette to open the NIT at home. 

The Tigers looked sharp offensively by hitting 52.7 percent of their shots and I believe they carry that momentum over here. Duop Reath was a standout in the victory with 26 points and 11 boards.

Utah beat UC Davis 69-59 in the opening round, needing to outscore UCD 22-11 in the final quarter to secure the 10-point win. Justin Bibbins hit all eight free throws and finished with 21 points and six boards. 

I’ll point out though that LSU is 5-1 ATS in its last six non-conference games, while Utah is just 1-4 ATS in its last five non-conference games and only 2-5-2 ATS in its last nine following a SU loss.

LSU is a big team and it won’t be intimidated here. While the outright upset isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing the points.

Play on LSU.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* O/U Oddsmakers Errors is on the under Bulls/Knicks (7:35 EST).

Neither team has anything to play for and I don’t believe they’ll be particularly motivated either. In a contest like that, I believe the under offers great value.

Chicago has alternated wins and losses over its last eight games, most recently falling 114-109 at home to Cleveland, while New York broke a nine-game slide with a 124-101 win at home over Charlotte on Saturday. 

Chicago has taken all three meetings between the clubs this year, including a high-scoring 122-119 double OT victory here in the last matchup on January 10th. 

Chicago comes in averaging 103.7 PPG and it concedes 109.5. Lauri Markkanen averages 14.9 points and 7.6 boards per game, while Robin Lopez adds 12 points and 4.5 boards a night. It was Denzel Valentine who shone in a losing cause to the Cavs though with 34 points, seven boards and six assists (Markkanen sat that game out though and he’s questionable for tonight as well. Same for Zach LaVine.)

New York averages 104.3 PPG and it concedes 107.7. Tim Hardaway Jr. had 25 points in the win over Charlotte. With big man Kristaps Porzingis sidelined with injury for the rest of the year, the Knicks are simply playing out the rest of their season at this point.

I’ll point out that Chicago has seen the total go under the number in 17 of 28 already this year against clubs with losing records, while New York has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of five already this season after playing three connective home games.

Both teams are dealing with significant injuries right now and each has more questions than answers. This number is a little high, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Miami Heat (7:35 EST).

Denver is stumbling down the stretch as it enters off a poor 101-94 road defeat at Memphis on Saturday to kick off its seven game road trip. Miami returns home off a 1-2 road trip, salvaging a victory in the final game 92-91 over the Lakers on Friday. Note that this is a double revenge game for the Heat, including losing the first matchup 95-94 this season in Denver back on November 3rd.

The Nuggets average 109 PPG and they concede 107.9. Big man Nikola Jokic had 17 points and 12 boards in a losing cause last time out. 

Miami averages 102.5 PPG and it concedes 102.5 as well. Hassan Whiteside averages 14.3 points and 11.8 boards per night, while Goran Dragic adds 17.6 points and 4.8 boards a game. 

I’ll point out as well that Denver has struggled in this position for bettors of late, going just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a straight up loss and just 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road, while Miami has done well in this position by going 4-0 ATS in its last four at home and 6-1-2 ATS in its last nine following an ATS victory.

Denver is just 11-22 on the road and I think the Heat take advantage here and avenge the earlier setback. Lay the points, play on Miami.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Stanford (7:00 EST).

It’s the No. 3 Stanford Cardinal against the No. 2 Oklahoma State Cowboys in the second round of the NIT on Monday and for a number of different reasons, I believe this one favors the dog.

Stanford got by BYU 86-83 in its first round win, while OKS got the better of FGCU 80-68. 

The Cardinal average 76.2 PPG and they concede 75. Stanford shot 44 percent from the floor against BYU, but also held it to just 44 percent shooting. They also won the rebound battle 47-37. Reid Travis led the way with 25 points and 14 rebounds. 

Stanford comes in having won three of its last four.

OKS averages 76.5 PPG and it concedes 72.9. The Cowboys have won four of their last five, but they looked pretty sloppy in the win over FGCU, converting only 35 percent of their shots. Jeffrey Carroll would go just 3 of 11 from the field, but he’d finish with a team-high 18 points. 

I’ll point out though that Stanford has done well in this spot for bettors this season by going 9-3 ATS in its last 12 following a SU victory and 4-1 ATS in its last five against schools with winning records, while OKS has struggled in this position by going just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 following a SU win.

I think Stanford and the points is the way to go here. The Cardinal are averaging over 80 points over their last eight games, which doesn’t bode well for this mediocre Cowboys’ defense (note that OKS’s three point defense ranks 296th in the country!)

Everything points to a “nail biter,” so grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT is on Cincinnati (6:10 EST).

Cincinnati got by Georgia State 68-53 in its opening round and I think the defensive minded Bearcats will wear down Nevada here as well. 

The Wolfpack come in off an exhausting 87-83 OT win over Texas on Friday and I think they suffer a letdown here.

Nevada had to rally from a four-point deficit as well in the extra period, which doesn’t bode well facing this swarming Bearcats’ defense. 

Jarron Cumberland had 27 points and 11 boards in Cincinnati’s win over Georgia State. The Bearcats were relentless on the boards, winning the battle 46-26. 

I’ll point out as well that Nevada is just 1-3 ATS this year as the underdog, while Cincinnati is a solid 17-13 ATS as the favorite.

I think the Bearcats’ are the much more confident team and as I mentioned above, I believe their elite level defensive play will ultimately prove to be too much for the Wolfpack to handle down the stretch.

Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on North Carolina (5:15 EST).

Texas A&M advanced to this point with a 73-69 victory over Providence, while UNC advanced with an 84-66 win over Lipscomb. While the Aggies’ have looked sharp defensively, they face their stiffest test to date in facing the Tar Heels’ high octane offense.

Texas A&M averages 74.9 PPG and it concedes 69.8. The Aggies held the Friars to 43.5 percent shooting and they were led by Admon Gilder with 18 points.

UNC averages 82 PPG and it concedes 72.9. The Tar Heels shot 51.7 percent in their opening round victory, while holding the Bison to just 35.9 percent. Kenny Williams led the charge with 18 points, while Theo Pinson added 15 points and ten boards.

I’ll point out that Texas A&M is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after scoring 72 points or more in its previous contest, while UNC is 18-11 ATS in its last 29 tournament games.

Beating the Friars is one thing, but the Tar Heels present an entirely different and much more difficult problem. UNC is playing at an elite level across the board right now and I can’t see Texas A&M keeping pace down the stretch.

Lay the points with confidence, play on North Carolina.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Oddsmakers Error is on Marquette (4:30 EST).

No. 2 Marquette gets ready to battle No. 3 Oregon on Saturday afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Golden Eagles.

Oregon advanced by knocking off Rider 99-86 in the opening round. The Ducks would go on to hit 58.9 percent from the floor and got 23 points from Victor Bailey Jr. While Oregon managed to cover the 11-point spread in that one, sloppy defensive play like that simply won’t get it done against Marquette today.

Marquette opened its Tournament journey with a solid 67-60 win over a solid Harvard Crimson team. The Golden Eagles hit 43.8 percent from the floor, but they’d go 7 of 16 from range. Keep your eyes on Markus Howard today, as he led the way in the first round victory with 22 points, while also going on to make all nine of his free throw attempts.

I’ll point out that Oregon is just 5-7 ATS this year after scoring 80 points or more in its previous outing, while Marquette is 6-1 ATS in its last seven after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games.

I don’t think Oregon is going to be able to slow down Howard. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on Michigan State (2:40 EST).

It’s No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 11 Syracuse in the second round of the NCAA Tournament on Sunday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Spartans.

Syracuse upset TCU 57-52 on Friday, while MSU held on for the 82-78 win over Bucknell. 

The Orange come into this one averaging just 67 PPG, but they make up for it on the defensive end by conceding only 63.9. Tyus Battle was just 3 of 12 for seven points in the win over TCU. Oshae Brissett led the way with 23 points, after posing 23 in the First Four win over Arizona State on Wednesday.

Syracuse comes in tired, while Michigan State likely comes in a bit concerned here after its closer than expected battle against Bucknell. 

MSU averages 81 PPG and it concedes 65.2. Note that Michigan State posted a 53 percent shooting percentage in the win over Bucknell, while holding it to just 41.8 percent. Miles Bridges would go on to posting 29 points and he’s now scored at least 17 in three straight games. 

I’ll point out as well that Syracuse is just 5-6 ATS as the underdog this year, while Michigan State is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season as a neutral court favorite of 6.5 to nine points. 

I think the Spartans’ offense finally solves the Orange’s tough defensive zone. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* O/U ODDSMAKERS ERROR is on the under OKC/TO (1:05 EST).

OKC won its fifth in a row with a 121-113 effort at home over the Clippers on Friday and suffice it to say, I think the Thunder are in store for a bit of a letdown here. 

Toronto has won 11 straight and 18 of 19 after a much tougher than expected 122-115 OT victory at home over the lowly Mavericks in its most recent action. And now another Western Conference opponent comes to town, but this time a much more dangerous one.

OKC averages 107.1 PPG and it concedes just 103.8. Russell Westbrook leads the nightly charge with 25.2 points, 9.7 boards, 10.2 assists and 1.78 steals per game, while Paul George adds 21.8 points, 5.6 boards and 2.04 steals per game. It was Corey Brewer though who came off the bench to lead everyone in the Thunders’ most recent victory with 22 points. 

Toronto averages 112.3 PPG and it concedes 103.5. DeMar DeRozan leads the team with 23.7 points and 5.1 assiss per night and he had 29 points and six assists in the win over Dallas.

I’ll point out though that OKC has seen the total go under the number in four of its last six after scoring 120 points or more in its previous contest, while Toronto has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of its last seven after winning in OT in its previous game in which its opponent scored 115 points or more. 

I’m expecting a slower-paced defensive affair. This number is a little high, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on Purdue (12:10 EST).

No. 2 seed Purdue gets ready to battle No. 10 Seed Butler in the NCAA Tournament on Sunday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Boilermakers. 

Butler comes in off a 79-62 win over Arkansas, while Purdue smashed CS Fullerton 74-48. Note that when these teams played in December, it was the Boilermakers that scored the relatively simple 82-67 road win and suffice it to say, I believe everything points to a repeat performance here. 

The Bulldogs average 79.1 PPG and they concede 72.5. Butler held Arkansas to 35 percent shooting and leading scorer Kelan Martin was a standout with 27 points. 

The Boilermakers average 80.9 PPG and they concede just 65.1. In the win over CS Fullerton, Purdue would hold it to only 36 percent shooting. Isaac Haas was injured and he’ll miss the rest of the tournament, but I look for Carsen Edwards to step up here and take command (Edwards leads the nightly charge with 18.4 PPG.) 

I’ll point out as well that Butler is just 4-9 ATS this year against good offensive teams which average 77plus points per contest, while Purdue is 7-2 ATS this season in the same position.

The loss of Haas is significant in the long run I believe, but in the short-term I fully expect the high-powered Boilermakers to rally and find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon.

Lay the points, play on Purdue.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Detroit Pistons (10:05 EST).

Portland looks poised for a bit of a letdown here in my opinion after 11 straight victories. Detroit sits 5.5 games back in the Eastern conference playoff race after losing six of its last seven.

Most recently the Pistons fell 120-113 at Denver on Thursday. Detroit has games at Sacramento and Phoenix upcoming, but clearly the team can leave nothing to chance as it desperately tries to run down the final playoff spot. Blake Griffin was a bright spot in the most recent setback with 26 points.

Portland comes in off a 113-105 win over Cleveland and it’s now scored 114.4 points over its last five games on average. CJ McCollum led the way offensively against the Cavs with 29 points. 

With a game tomorrow night at the Clippers, there’s no doubt though that this one sets up as not only a “letdown” spot for the over achieving home side, but also a “look ahead” position as well. 

Detroit is hungry and desperate and I look for it to at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* NCAA 2ND RND GAME OF THE YEAR is on Gonzaga (7:45 EST).

No. 5 Ohio State gets ready to battle No. 4 Gonzaga with a ticket to the Sweet 16 on the line and for a number of different reasons, I think this on favors the Bulldogs.

The Buckeyes managed an 81-73 win over South Dakota State in its first round matchup on Thursday, while Gonzaga also had a much closer than expected battle against UNC Greensboro, eventually pulling way for the 68-64 win. These teams played in the PK-80 Invitational on November 23rd 2017 and Gonzaga would smash Ohio State 86-59. 

Ohio State averages 75.8 PPG and it concedes 66.7. Keita Bates-Diop had 24 points and 12 boards in the victory over South Dakota State. 

Gonzaga averages 84.5 PPG and it concedes just 67.1. Jonathan Wiliams led the charge with 19 points and 13 boards in the win over UNC Greensboro. Note that Williams leads the team with an averages of 13.5 points and 8.3 boards per game. 

I’ll point out as well that Ohio State is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 neutral site games, while Gonzaga is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a neutral court favorite of three points or less or pick. 

The Bulldogs still have several key players from last year’s team which contributed to the title run. The Buckeyes seem thin when Bates-Diop is not on the floor or if he’s in foul trouble. This one has all the makings of a lop-sided blowout. 

Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* TOP TV PLAY FOR THE WEEKEND is on Kentucky (5:15 EST).

The No. 13 Buffalo Bulls get ready to battle the No. 5 Kentucky Wildcats on Saturday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the favorite.

The Bulls shocked No. 4 seed Arizona 89-68 on Thursday, while Kentucky would hold on for a 78-73 victory over Davidson on the same night. 

Buffalo comes into this one averaging 84.8 PPG and conceding 75.9. Wes Clark led the Bulls with 25 points and seven assists in the win over Arizona. CJ Massinburg leads the nightly charge though with an average of 16.9 points and 7.4 boards. 

Kentucky enters this one averaging 76.7 PPG and it concedes 70.2. Kevin Knox had 25 points in the victory over Davidson and leads the team overall with 15.6 points and 5.4 boards per game. 

Buffalo can’t be taken lightly here, but I don’t think it has an answer for Knox. Also note that the Bulls are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine off an upset win as a five points or larger underdog, while Kentucky is a superb 11-6 ATS in its last 17 when playing on one or less days rest.

I think the Bulls have a letdown here after their big upset victory and I look for tournament experienced Kentucky to step up and take advantage.

Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Duke (2:40 EST).

It’s No. 7 Rhode Island against No. 2 Duke in the second round of The Big Dance and for a number of different reasons, I believe this one favors the Blue Devils. 

Rhode Island comes in off an 83-78 upset win over No. 10 Oklahoma and suffice it to say, I think the Rams are set up for a letdown here. Rhode Island only shot 39 percent, while holding the Sooners to 42 percent. EC Matthews would lead the way with 13 points. 

Note that the Rams average 76.4 PPG and they concede 68.2. 

The Blue Devils average 85.1 PPG and they concede just 69.6. Duke smashed Iona 89-67 in the first round led by 22 points and seven boards from Marvin Bagley III. 

I’ll point out as well that Rhode Island is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against teams with a winning percentage above .600 and only 1-4 ATS following a SU victory, while Duke is a solid 4-1 ATS in its last five neutral site affairs. 

Duke is playing at an elite level defensively right now, holding teams to just 32 percent from range. The Rams are coming off a horrible shooting game last time out and I can’t see this team keeping pace with the high-flying Blue Devils down the stretch. 

Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on Missouri (9:50 EST).

Florida State lost to Louisville in the ACC Tournament 82-74, while Missouri fell to Georgia 62-60 in the SEC tourney.

The Seminoles play at a quick rate, ranked 26th-fastest in the nation, while averaging 82 PPG. However, FSU is pretty ordinary on the defensive end by allowing 74.5 per contest. FSU was just 9-10 in the ACC and it lost three of its final four. In the loss to Louisville the ‘Noles would allow the Cardinals to hit 50.8 percent from the floor and 10 of 16 from range. 

Missouri averages just 73.5 PPG, but it makes up for it on the defensive end by conceding only 68.3. Jontay Porter would lead the Tigers with 20 points and eight boards in the loss to Georgia in the conference tournament game. 

I’ll point out though that Missouri is 9-5 ATS this year against good offensive teams which average 77-plus points per contest, while FSU is already 0-4 ATS this season after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive contests.

I think the Tigers’ tough defensive play ultimately proves to be too much for the Seminoles to overcome. Play on Missouri.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* LEGEND is on New Mexico State (9:55 EST).

The 28-5 New Mexico State Aggies get ready to battle the 23-9 Clemson Tigers on Friday night and while I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I like the underdog to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire.

Clemson was 11-7 in ACC action, while the Aggies were No. 1 in the WAC in the regular season and then also secured the conference tournament and the automatic bid to The Big Dance.

The Aggies have in fact won the West Coast Conference for five straight years and they enter The Tournament having won six straight. Two players to keep your eyes on today are senior forward Jemerrio Jones, who averages 12.3 points and 18.3 boards per game and guard Zach Lofton, who averages 24.3 points (note that New Mexico State leads the WAC and is ranked fifth in the country in opposing field-goal percentage (39.2 percent) and rebounding margin (9.1.) 

The Tigers are back in the big dance for the first time in seven years and advanced to the SEC tourney semi’s before falling to eventual champion Virginia. Clemson is also a top tier defensive school, ranked 34th in the nation opposing field goal percentage (41.) Marcquise Reed leads the nightly charge with 15.9 points. 

I’ll point out though that New Mexico State is a solid 4-1 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records, while Clemson is just 1-3 ATS this season after scoring 60 points or less in its previous outing. 

The Aggies are filled with experienced seniors and they have the defense to match pace with their ACC opponent tonight. As mentioned off the top, everything points to a closer than expected battle.

Grab the points, play on New Mexico State.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Brooklyn Nets (7:05 EST).

Brooklyn comes to town off two straight losses, most recently a 116-102 home loss to Toronto on Tuesday. The Nets won’t be playing in the postseason, but I think they’ll at the very least keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch against this highly contented 76ers side which comes in off a come-from behind 118-110 win in New York just last night.

Brooklyn averages 105.8 PPG and it concedes 110.2. D’Angelo Russell leads the nightly charge with 16.1 points and 4.8 assists per night. Note that Russell had 32 points in a losing cause to Toronto last time out. 

Philadelphia averages 107.8 PPG and it concedes 105.6. Note that the 76ers are just 5-7 against the division though. Joel Embiid leads the nightly charge with 23.5 points, 11 boards and 1.76 blocks per night. 

I’ll point out as well that Brooklyn has in fact excelled in this spot for bettors by going 19-11 ATS this year against good offensive teams which score 106 plus points per contest, while Philadelphia has struggled in this position by going 1-4 ATS in its last five after scoring 115 points or more in its previous outing.

This is the 76ers third game in four nights, while the Nets come to town having had two whole days of rest. While I’m not going to call for the outright upset, everything points to a much more competitive battle than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. 

Grab the points, play on Brooklyn.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Oddsmakers Error is on Kansas State (6:50 EST).

Kansas State comes in off an 83-67 loss to Kansas in the Big 12 Semifinals, while Creighton lost to Providence 72-68 in the Big East Quarterfinals. 

K-State was 22-11 overall this year, but it struggled against Kansas in the conference tournament, letting the Wildcats hit 48.3 percent, while hitting a still decent 46.7 percent itself. Kanas State though would get outscored from range 33-6. Makol Mawien was a bright spot in the setback with 29 points. 

Note that the Wildcats enter this one averaging 72.4 PPG this season, while conceding 67.9. 

The Bluejays average 84.3 PPG and they concede 74.2. Creighton finished 22-11 on the year, but it struggled in its loss to Providence, hitting only 42.4 percent from the floor, including only 26.1 percent from range (also made 13 turnovers.) Leading the way in a losing cause was Marcus Foster with 19, while Davion Mintz added 14. 

I’ll point out though that Kansas State has in fact done pretty well in this spot for bettors by going 4-1 ATS in its last five against good offensive teams which average 77-plus points per contest, while Creighton is just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 neutral site affairs and just 1-3 ATS in its last four when playing on seven or more days rest. 

The Blue Jays’ offense struggled in its last game, which I believe spells doom against this aggressive Wildcats defense. 

I’m banking on that being the difference maker tonight. Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Butler (3:10 EST).

Butler was 9-9 in Big East action this year and it lost to Villanova in the semi-finals of the big East Tournament, while Arkansas was 10-8 in SEC play and it would bow out to Tennessee in the semi’s of its conference tourney. 

The Bulldogs average 79 PPG and they concede 72.8. Kelan Martin was a bright spot in the loss to Villanova as he’d go on to post 30 points over two tournament contests. Butler has struggled down the stretch, with only three wins out of its last nine games. 

Arkansas averages 81.1 PPG and it concedes 75.5. Darryl Macon had 19 points in the loss to the Vols in the conference tournament. 

The Razorback have won four of their last six and they were 5-2 against ranked foes this year, including victories over Auburn and Tennessee. 

Regardless of how these teams finished this year though, I think that Butler has the advantage here. Experience and depth can’t be discounted in this situation. 

Arkansas has a tendency to give up points in bunches and combined with their superior defense, I like the Bulldogs to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PEFECT STORM is on Texas A&M (12:15 EST).

It’s the Big East against the SEC in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I believe this one favors the Aggies. 

Providence enters off a 76-66 setback to Villanova in the Big East Conference Tournament Finals, while Texas A&M fell 71-70 to Alabama in the second-round of the SEC tournament. 

Providence averages 73.7 PPG and it concedes 72.7. The Friars were on the bubble heading into the Big East tournament, but after a run which saw them fall 76-66 in the final to Villanova, they’d go on to finally punch their ticket to The Big Dance. Alpha Diallo was a bright spot in the losing cause with 22 points and ten boards.

Texas A&M averages 75 PPG and it concedes 69.8. The Aggies lost their conference tournament game on a last second three-point shot. It was their third straight game which was decided by two points or less. Note though that Texas A&M has averaged 78.4 PPG and conceded just 69 in all neutral court affairs this year. 

Additionally I’ll point out that Providence is a poor 3-13 ATS in its last 16 non-conference games, while Texas A&M is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after five or six days of rest.

The Friars are 203rd in the nation in shooting, which doesn’t bode well facing this tough Aggies defense in my opinion (note that they’re 16th in the country in defensive FG percentage).

Lay the points, play on Texas A&M.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Arizona (9:40 EST).

Buffalo finished 26-8, while Arizona was 27-7. 

The Bulls snagged the 13th seed in the South Region after winning the MAC Tournament Final over Toledo 76-66 last weekend. Buffalo went on to shoot 45.9 percent from the floor, while holding Toledo to just 36.8 percent. Wes Clark was a standout in the victory with 26 points, five boards, three assists and four steals. Buffalo averages 84.8 PPG and it concedes 75.9. 

Arizona averages 80.9 PPG and it concedes 71.2. Deandre Ayton had 32 points, 18 boards, two assists and a block in the Wildcats’ 75-61 Pac-12 Tournament Finals win over USC on Saturday. 

Buffalo had a great defensive performance against the Rockets, but Arizona is a clearly a completely different “animal.” Led by Ayton, the Wildcats are firing on all cylinders and I look for their depth and overall talent to be too much for Buffalo to overcome in the end.

Lay the points with confidence, play on Arizona.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Detroit Pistons (9:00 EST).

The desperate 30-37 Detroit Pistons are in Denver to take on the 37-31 Nuggets on Thursday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. 

Detroit won five straight when it brought over Blake Griffin from LA, but the team has since lost 11 of its last 14 to fall 5.5 games behind Miami for the final spot in the East. 

The Pistons started their road trip off with a terrible 110-79 loss at Utah, as Grffin had 13 points in the losing cause. 

Denver had its two game win streak snapped with a 112-103 setback to the Lakers on the road on Tuesday. Like Detroit, the Nuggets are fighting for a playoff spot. Wilson Chandler had 26 points and ten boards in the most recent setback to the Lakers. 

I’ll point out as well that Detroit has in fact bounced back well in this spot for bettors already this year, going 3-1 ATS after scoring 85 points or less in its previous contest and 4-2 ATS in its last six after a loss by ten points or more.

Denver on the other hand has struggled in this position by going just 9-12 ATS in all non-conference games and just 15-18 ATS against teams with losing records.

Desperation breeds motivation. I’m going to stop short in calling for the outright upset, but everything points to this one being more competitive than what the oddsmakers are trying to make us think. 

Grab the points, play on the Pistons.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Houston (7:20 EST).

It’s No. 11 San Diego State against No. 6 Houston in the first round of the NCAA Tournament and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Cougars.

I had a play on Houston in its loss to Cincinnati in the AAC Conference Tournament final, as it would go on to easily cover the spread in the one point loss. 

Brian Dutcher has guided SDSU back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in three years. SDSU enters on a nine-game win streak, including a win over New Mexico in the Conference Tournament to earn the automatic bid. 

Five starters average double digits for SDSU, led by Malik Pope with 12.9 per night. The Aztecs are also stout defensively in conceding just 67.9 PPG. 

The Cougars finished 26-7 and they’ll be looking to make some noise in the Tournament, their first time back in eight years. Rob Gray had 17 points in the 56-55 loss to the Bearcats. Gray leads the nightly charge with 18.5 points and 4.5 assists per night. 

Houston leads its conference in three-point shooting at 38.7 percent and it’s second in the AAC in scoring at 77.4 per night. 

I think it’s worthy to note as well that the Aztecs are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games when playing the role of underdog, while the Cougars are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site affairs. 

SDSU has a tough defense, but I think it’ll struggle to keep pace with the high-flying Cougars. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Seton Hall (4:30 EST).

The No. 9 NC State Wolfpack get ready to battle the No. 8 Seton Hall Pirates in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Pirates. 

Coach Kevin Keatts of NC State is back in the Tournament for a third straight year, after taking North Carolina-Wilmington to the Tourney the previous two seasons. 

Keatts guided the Wolfpack to wins over Duke, UNC and Wake Forest in his first year at NC State.

Allerik Freeman leads the nightly charge for NC State with 15.4 points, while swingman Torin Dorn averages 13.8 PPG. 

The Pirates are back in The Dance for a third straight year and would lose to Butler in the conference tournament quarterfinals. Seton Hall is led by Khadeen Carrington with 17.8 PPG to lead the team.  

It’s interesting to note that these teams both played Louisville this year and each would go on to defeat the Cardinals (NC State won 76-69 and Seton Hall held on for the 79-77 victory.) 

NC State has some nice wins this year, but Seton Hall’s experience and depth will prove to be too much for the contented Wolfpack to handle down the stretch in my opinion. Experience and depth.

Play on Seton Hall.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Miami Heat (10:05 EST).

Miami is fighting for a playoff spot, while Sacramento is fighting for ping pong balls in the upcoming offseason NBA draft. 

The Heat had won two in a row and four of five before falling 115-99 on the road to Portland on Monday, while the Kings come in off a second straight loss, dropping a 106-101 road decision to the Thunder on Monday. 

Note that this is also an “in season revenge game” for the visitors after the Kings scored the 89-88 road upset back on January 25th.

Miami averages 102.4 PPG and it concedes 102.3. Goran Dragic averages 17.2 points, 4.1 boards and 4.9 assists per night and he had 23 in a losing cause to the Blazers. 

Sacramento averages 99.3 PPG and it concedes 107.2. De’Aaron Fox has been impressive in his rookie year with 11.4 points, 2.6 boards and 4.4 assists per night, while Buddy Hield averages 12.5 points. It was Bogdan Bogdanovic who led the way in a losing cause against OKC though with 19 points.

I’ll point out that Miami has done very well in this spot for bettors of late by going 4-0 ATS in its last four following a SU loss of more than ten points and 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight following an ATS loss. 

The Kings have been somewhat competitive of late and the Heat are dealing with injuries, but I still think the visitors have enough weaponry left on the bench to get the job done this evening. 

Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Stanford (10:00 EST).

BYU was 24-10 this year and 11-7 in the WCC. The Cougars beat St. Mary’s in the conference tournament before getting smoked 74-54 to Gonzaga in the championship game. 

Stanford got out to a slow start and finished 18-15 overall, but it was a decent 11-7 in league action, finishing in third (which wasn’t good enough for an NCAA bid in the Pac 12 this year.)

In the loss to Gonzaga, BYU was led by Yoeli Childs, who had 20 points, after scoring 33 against St. Mary’s in the semis. 

The Cardinal fell 88-77 to UCLA in the quarterfinals of the Pac 12 Conference Tournament. As mentioned off the top though Stanford got out to the slow start to the season, but it was better than expected through conference play. 

I’ll point out as well that BYU is just 8-17-2 ATS in its last 27 against teams with winning straight up records, while Stanford is 8-1 ATS in its last nine in front of the home town crowd and a superb 10-2 ATS in its last 12 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 

I like the Cardinal to maintain their end of season momentum and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry

The third 9* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Washington (10:00 EST).

Boise State lost to Utah State 78-75 in the MWC Tourney, while Washington fell 69-66 in OT to Oregon State in its conference tournament. 

Boise State comes into this one averaging 78.3 PPG, while conceding 68.8. The Broncos strength all season has been their tough defensive play, but they’ve now given up 78 and 87 points in their last two games respectively. Lexus Williams had 24 points in Boise State’s latest setback.

Washington averages 74.3 PPG and it concedes 72.6. The Huskies struggled in the loss to the Beavers hitting only 38.3 percent. Matisse Thybulle was a bright spot in the setback with 16 points. 

Boise State had a decent season, but I have a hard time seeing it hanging with battle tested Pac 12 Huskies, who were 10-8 in league play and 15-4 at home. 

The Broncos defense has been exposed and I like Washington to step up and take advantage.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Arizona State (9:10 EST).

Arizona State was upset 97-85 by Colorado in the first round of the Pac-12 Tournament, while the Orange fell 78-59 to UNC in the second round of the ACC Tourney. 

The Sun Devils come into this one averaging 90.2 PPG, while conceding 83.5. The Buffs hit 13 of 21 from range in the Conference tournament to take out Arizona State, which would go on to hit 48 percent itself overall from the floor. Remy Martin was a standout in the losing cause with 20 points, while Shannon Evans II, Kodi Justice and Tra Holder each posted 14. 

Note that Arizona State has averaged 90.2 points and conceded 85.4 in all neutral court affairs this season. 

Syracuse did just enough to squeak into the First Four, but note that the Orange have averaged only 66 points, while conceding 70.2 in all neutral court games this season. Syracuse struggled offensively against the Tar Heels, shooting only 31.7 percent from the floor. Oshae Brissett had 20 points in the loss, while Tyus Battle added 15. 

I’ll point out as well that ASU has done extremely well in this spot for bettors all year, going 10-1 ATS in its last non-conference contests and 15-7-2 ATS in its last 24 following an ATS loss, while Syracuse is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight neutral site affairs.

Both teams backed their way into the First Four and each has more questions than answers right now. I simply have a hard time seeing the offensively challenged Orange keeping pace with the high-flying Sun Devils down the stretch.

And when taking into account the strong ATS trends listed above as well, the correct call in this matchup is indeed on ASU.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Temple (8:00 EST).

Temple is on the road to visit Penn State in the first round of the NIT and while I’m going to stop short in calling for the outright upset, I think we’re going to see a much closer battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

The Nittany Lions were 21-13 overall and 9-9 in league action, while the Owls were 17-15 and 8-10 in conference play. PSU fell to Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament, while Temple lost to Wichita State in its conference tournament.

The Owls beat the Shockers at home on February 1st, but they’d lose to Wichita State 89-81 in the conference tournament. Quinton Rose was a strong point in that setback with 25 points, while Josh Brown added 15. Temple comes into this one averaging 70.3 PPG and conceding 70.7. 

Penn State averages 74.6 PPG and it concedes 66.9. The Nittany Lions got two wins in the conference tournament, but three straight loss to end the year, including a 76-64 defeat to Nebraska in their regular season finale, ultimately sunk their hopes for a NCAA bid. Shep Garner was a bright with 33 points in the loss to the Boilermakers. 

I think it’s interesting to note though that Temple is 13-9 ATS this year against schools with winning records, while Penn State is just 10-11 ATS in the same position. 

I think Fran Dunphy will have his team prepared for this one. Penn State is the better overall team, but it comes injured (Watkins) and everything points to an upset here. That said, I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can in the end. 

Play on the Owls.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* TOTAL PERFECT STORM is the under Nuggets/Lakers (10:35 EST).

The 37-30 Denver Nuggets are in LA to take on the 30-36 Lakers on Tuesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one will fall below the posted number once it’s all said and done.

LA is 7-2 in its last nine, most recently getting the better of Cleveland in a high-scoring affair on Sunday. Can anyone say “letdown spot?” 

Denver comes to town hot off back-to-back wins, including over these very Lakers and against the Kings last time out. 

The Nuggets got 20 points, 11 boards and ten assists out of big man Nikola Jokic in the victory over the Kings.

The Lakers will be out to atone for their 125-116 setback at Denver last Friday. Note that Julius Randle exploded for 36 points in the victory over the Cavaliers.

I’ll point out though that Denver has seen the total go under the number in six of ten this year after playing three consecutive home games, while LA has seen the total dip below the posted number in 30 of its last 53 off an upset win as an underdog. 

Let’s face it, these two teams clearly don’t put a lot of stock on the defensive side of things, but I think each comes out with a more determined effort on that side of the floor after their high-scoring game together just last week.

This number is just a little high, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Detroit Pistons (9:05 EST).

Detroit got off the schneid, breaking a four-game losing streak with a 99-83 win over the Bulls on Friday, led by 25 points from Blake Griffin and 21 from Reggie Bullock. 

The Pistons are still trying to adjust since making the Griffin trade, but the power forward comes in on fire this year, especially from range where he’s connecting on 33.5 percent of his shots. Also note that big man Andre Drummond is shooting a career-high 61.6 percent from the free throw line this season and he contributes 14.9 points and 15.8 boards per game. 

Detroit won’t be taking anything for granted here though after losing 13 of its last 20 and at the start of this tough Western swing. 

The Jazz have won eight of ten, including six straight, which leads me to believe they’re going to have a letdown here facing this non-conference opponent. And with upcoming games against lightweights Phoenix, Sacramento and Atlanta at home up next, Utah could easily be caught looking ahead here as well. 

Additionally I’ll point out that Detroit has done well in this spot for bettors all year by going 12-8 ATS in all non-conference contests, while Utah is a poor 5-6 ATS this season after playing three consecutive road games. 

Both teams are hungry for wins, but the conditions point to a much tighter affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Grab as many points as you can, play on the Pistons.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on Northern Kentucky (7:00 EST).

Northern Kentucky finished the year at 22-9, while Louisville was 20-13. 

The Cardinals failed to make The Big Dance and I think they have a bit of a mental letdown here because of it. 

Northern Kentucky also aspired to be included in the NCAA Tournament, but its hopes were dashed in the Horizon League Tournament.

The Norse won the regular season title and were upset in the first round by Cleveland State. With some extra time off to recover from that disappointment, I think Northern Kentucky comes in focused and hungry here. One player to keep your eyes on today for the visitors is forward Drew McDonald, who had 15 double-doubles over his last 21 games. 

Reports have it that many of the Cardinals players voiced objections over even playing in the NIT this season. Louisville comes in completely dejected here after losing to Virginia in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals. 

The Rick Pitino scandal still weighs heavily upon the program and the fans and I think the Norse are going to be able to take advantage. 

Note the Northern Kentucky is 4-1 ATS this year following an ATS loss, while the Cardinals are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 following a SU setback. 

I’m not going to call for the outright upset, but everything points to a “nail-biter.” 

Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* TOTAL BLOWOUT is the over Long Island/Radford (6:40 EST).

The LIU Brooklyn Blackbirds get ready to battle the Radford Highlanders on Tuesday in the “First Four” and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has “shootout” written all over it.

Radford was 12-6 in Big South play and would go on to win the Conference Tournament, while Brooklyn amassed a 10-8 record in conference play and managed to come out as the victor in the Northeast Conference Tournament. 

The winner of this one will go on to play Villanova on Thursday.

Radford averages 67.4 PPG and it concedes 64.4. The Highlanders have won seven straight, but they had to hold on for dear life to beat Liberty 55-52 in a lower-scoring Conference Tournament finale. Carlik Jones was a standout in the victory with 13 points and six assists.

LIU Brooklyn shocked No. 1 seed Wagner 71-61 in the Northeast Tournament final and I believe the team will carry that momentum over here. The Blackbirds average 77.5 PPG and they concede 76.6. Joel Hernandez had 32 points in the title victory.

Neither team has been playing to many higher-scoring affairs of late, but I think the circumstances of the situation will see these two combine for just enough points to push this one over what I feel to be a fairly low number. 

This total is just a little low, play the over.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Miami Heat (10:35 EST).

Miami comes in with momentum after smashing the Wizards 129-102 at home on Saturday. Portland has bee playing unbelievably of late, but I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot after nine straight victories, most recently getting the better of Golden State 125-108 on Friday night. 

To say this is a “revenge” game would be an understatement as well, as Portland has won four straight in the series, including a 102-95 road victory in the first meeting between the clubs this year in Miami back on December 13th. 

Miami averages 102.4 PPG and it concedes 102.1. James Johnson had 20 points and five assists to lead eight players in double figures in his team’s most recent victory.

Portland averages 105.6 PPG and it concedes 103.2. CJ McCollum was a standout with 30 points in the victory over the defending champs.

However, not only do I think this sets up as a “trap/letdown” spot for the Blazers, but I also think it’s a classic “look ahead” spot as well, with two nights off before facing the Cavaliers at home on Thursday. 

While I wouldn’t be shocked by the outright upset, all signs point to a “nail-biter.” Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* TOTAL Oddsmakers Error is on the under Cavs/Lakers (8:00 EST).

The 38-27 Cavaliers are in LA to play the 29-36 Lakers on Sunday night and everything points to a defensive battle in my opinion. 

Maybe it won’t be the best overall defensive game we’ve ever seen, but I still think this number is much too high. 

Cleveland comes in off a 116-112 loss to the Clippers on Friday and it would also lose the services of Rodney Hood and Cedi Osman to injury in the setback. 

LA is 6-2 in its last eight, but its win streak was de-railed last time out in Denver, falling 125-116. The Lakers have a rematch with the Nuggets on Tuesday, so there’s no question in my mind that this young team could be caught looking ahead to that more important contest. 

I’ll point out as well that Cleveland has in fact seen the total go under the number in six of its last nine against good offensive clubs which average 106 plus points per contest and 16 of 22 this season following a non-conference game, while LA has seen the total dip below the posted number in interestingly five of its last seven against poor defensive clubs which concede 106-plus points per night.

For all the reasons listed above, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on Houston (4:30 EST).

Note that these teams split a pair of games this year, with each winning on its own floor. 

Houston advanced with a 77-74 win over Wichita State as a five-point underdog. I had the Shockers in that one. I don’t normally ever “flip flop” on a team from one game to the next, but this is a completely different situation in that each contest at this point of the tournament needs to be looked at separately in my opinion.

I was wrong about the Cougars yesterday, but I think they’re going to carry their momentum over here against this shaky Cincinnati Bearcats team, which comes in off a 70-60 win over Memphis to advance.

Houston averages 78.1 PPG and it concedes 65.2. The Cougars are playing with added incentive today as well, as a win today will guarantee them a spot in The Big Dance. Rob Gray was unstoppable against the Shockers with 33 points (26.7 tournament average.) 

This is a great “situational” play in my opinion, as I believe the Bearcats will come in “gassed” here. Cincinnati was down 42-29 at halftime against the Tigers, but they then rallied for a big second half come from behind victory. The defense shone in the end by allowing Memphis to hit just 35.2 percent from the floor, but all of that energy expended to claw back is going to come back to bite the Bearcats in the end in my opinion. Jarron Cumberland was a standout with 18 points in victory.

As I mentioned off the top, I am very aware of being careful not to ever “flip flop” on a team from one game to the next. As I’ve demonstrated above though, in a tournament scenario like this, being “flexible” with my approach over the years has led to greater and long-term success and that’s my approach with this one. 

The Bearcats are the second best defensive team in the nation, but the Cougars are no slouch on that end of the court either. Houston has the clear advantage offensively as well.

Houston’s already beaten Cincinnati this year, so it obviously won’t be intimidated. With nothing to lose, I like the Cougars to at the very least take this one right down to the wire.

Grab the points, play on Houston.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Tennessee (2:00 EST).

The 23-10 Kentucky Wildcats get ready to battle the 25-7 Tennessee Volunteers in the SEC Tournament Championship and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Vols.

Kentucky has beaten Georgia and Alabama to advance, while Tennessee has gotten the better of Mississippi State and Arkansas to reach this point.

PJ Washington had 18 points for the Wildcats in their 62-49 victory over Georgia, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander added 15 points and nine boards. Gilegeous-Alexander had double figures again in the 86-63 win over Alabama. 

The Vols barely got by Mississippi State 61-58 on Friday, before five players scored in double figures for the convincing 84-66 win over Arkansas on Saturday. Lamonte Turner was a standout with nine points, four assists and two steals off the bench. 

I’ll point out that Kentucky has struggled in this spot of late for bettors by going just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a win by more than 20 points, while Tennessee has excelled in this position by going 9-4 ATS in its last 13 neutral site games and 5-2 ATS in its last seven against teams with a winning percentage of .600 or greater. 

Ultimately I think Tennessee’s depth will prove to be too much for Kentucky to keep up to down the stretch. Play on the Volunteers.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* SUPER TOTAL is the over USC/Arizona (10:00 EST).

The 23-10 USC Trojans are battling the 26-7 Arizona Wildcats in the Pac-12 Men’s Tournament Final this evening and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has shootout written all over it.

USC comes in off a 74-54 win over Oregon last night, looking great on both ends of the floor, finishing by hitting 50 percent from the field. Jonah Mathews was a standout with 27 points, three boards, three assists and three steals. The Trojans average 77.7 PPG. 

Arizona averages 81.2 PPG. Arizona advanced to the Final by defeating UCLA 78-67 last night, led by Deandre Ayton, who finished with 32 points, 14 boards, three assists, two blocks and two steals. 

I’ll point out that USC has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last 12 when playing with one or less days rest, while Arizona has seen the total eclipse the posted number in six of its last seven conference tournament contests. 

These teams played in mid February and Arizona got the better of USC 81-67. I expect these hungry teams to combine for at least this amount again on the national stage.

Play on the over.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* O/U Oddsmaker’s Error is the over Spurs/Thunder (8:35 EST).

These were two teams with big expectations entering the season, but each finds itself needing to string together some victories just to ensure that it’ll have a playoff spot.

Each is dealing with injuries and other issues, but I believe the conditions lend themselves to a higher-scoring affair between these extremely hungry opponents.

The Spurs enter off a 110-107 road loss to Golden State in their most recent action, while OKC smashed Phoenix 115-87 at home on Thursday to break a two-game slide. 

San Antonio has lost seven of its last nine and it averages just 102.2 PPG, while conceding 99.6. Big man LaMarcus Aldridge averages 22.4 points and 8.4 boards per night (note that he had 30 points and 17 boards in the loss to the Warriors.)

OKC averages 106.8 PPG and it concedes 103.8. Russell Westbrook averages 25.4 points, 9.6 boards, 10.1 assists and 1.86 steals per game and he had 25 points, eight boards and nine assists in his team’s most recent victory. 

The Spurs may be the stingiest team in the NBA overall this season, but head coach Greg Popovich has been changing up the pace of late, as note that San Antonio has seen the total go over the number in eight of 12 so far in the second half of the season.

OKC is another top defensive club, which makes it important to note that it’s seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of its last five against teams with winning records.

For all the reasons listed above, play the OVER.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Tennessee (3:30 EST).

The 23-10 Arkansas Razorbacks get ready to battle the 24-7 Tennessee Volunteers in the SEC semi-final on Saturday afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Vols.

Tennessee received a double-bye to open the tournament and then came out and survived a scare in a 61-58 win over Mississippi State on Friday. Clearly the Vols won’t be taking anything for granted this evening after that closer than expected victory:

“We were fortunate,” Tennessee head coach Rick Barnes admitted afterwards. “This time of year, you just advance. Not a lot of good things, other than the fact that we won the game when you look at it from our perspective.”

The Razorbacks come in off back-to-back Conference Tournament victories, but I think they have a letdown here after their upset win over Florida yesterday.

Note that the Volunteers also play with the added motivation of “revenge” this afternoon after Arkansas upset Tennessee earlier in the season.

I look for the Vols to shake off the rust and to avenge the earlier setback to the now weary Razorbacks. Play on Tennessee.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Wichita State (3:30 EST).

Houston comes in off an 84-56 win over UCF, while Wichita State enters off an 89-81 win over Temple to advance. Note that these teams split a pair of games in the regular season.

The Cougars average 78 PPG and they concede 65.2. The Cougars have won nine of their last ten. Devin Davis was a standout in the win over the Golden Knights with 16 points, while Rob Gray added 15. 

The Shockers average 83.3 PPG and they concede 71.2. Landry Shamet had 24 points in the win over the Owls. Previous to only scoring 61 points in its regular season finale setback to Cincinnati, note that Wichita State had averaged 85.9 PPG over its previous seven outings.

Houston got the better of the Shockers the last time the teams played, but I think the Cougars come out flat here against this battle tested Wichita State team. 

Lay the points with confidence, play on the Shockers.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* SUPER TOTAL is on the over St Joe’s/Rhode Island (1:00 EST).

For a number of different reasons, I think this one will sneak above the posted number once it’s all said and done.

St. Joe’s comes into this one on top form with four straight wins, which includes a 30-point blowout victory over these very Rams just two weeks ago. I had a play on the Hawks yesterday and they’d go on to crush George Mason 68-49, led by 14 points and nine boards from Nick Robinson. 

Rhode Island cruised to a 76-67 win over VCU in its latest action, hitting 50 percent from range in the victory (11 of 22.) Jeff Dowtin was a standout with 18 points, while Jared Terrell finished 16.

I’l point out that St. Joe’s has seen the total go over the number in 12 of 19 already this year when the total in the contest is set between 140 and 149.5, while Rhode Island has seen the total sail above the posted number in both games that it’s played in already this year when trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent.

This one has the feel of a “run and gun shootout.” Play the over.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* O/U Oddsmakers Error is on the over Knicks/Bucks (8:05 EST).

New York is struggling down the stretch, but I think it’ll put up enough of a fight against the Bucks to make the home side sweat a little. 

The Knicks most recently dropped their fifth straight, a poor 111-87 setback on the road in Portland on Tuesday. 

The Bucks won’t be taking anything for granted here though, as they come in having lost two straight, most recently a 110-99 setback at home to Houston on Wednesday. Note that so far the Bucks have taken both meetings against New York this year.

New York averages 103.8 PPG and it concedes 107.1. Enes Kanter averages 14.3 points and 10.8 boards per game, while Tim Hardaway Jr. adds 17 points a night. Hardaway had 19 points in a losing cause to the Blazers last time out.

Milwaukee averages 104.6 PPG and it concedes 105.2. Giannis Antetokounmpo averages 27.2 points, 10.2 boards, 4.8 assists, 1.46 blocks and 1.46 steals per game, while Khris Middleton adds 19.7 points and 5.2 boards per night. 

I’ll point out that New York has in fact seen the total go over the number in five of eight already this year after playing three consecutive road games, while Milwaukee has seen the total eclipse the posted number in not surprisingly five of its last seven against poor defensive clubs which concede 106-plus points per night.

Milwaukee is desperate for a victory and I look for it to get out and run tonight. Everything points to a faster-paced, higher-scoring over in my opinion.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Detroit Pistons (7:05 EST).

Chicago looks poised for a predictable letdown here in my opinion after winning its second straight, most recently a 119-110 win over Memphis on Friday. 

It’s going to be “all hands on deck” for the Pistons though, who have lost four straight, most recently a tight 121-119 OT setback at home to the Raptors on Wednesday. 

Note that this also sets up as an “in season revenge game” for the home side after the Bulls took the first meeting 107-105 in Chicago back on January 13th.

The Bulls enter averaging 103.4 PPG and conceding 109.4. Zach LaVine averages 17.1 points, while rookie Lauri Markkanen adds 14.9 points and 7.6 boards per night and he had 22 in his team’s most recent victory.

Detroit needs to stop the bleeding now, as it sits five games back of the Bucks for the final playoff spot with 17 games remaining. The Pistons had a 14 point half time lead against Toronto, but couldn’t hold it together against the East leading Raptors down the stretch. 

The Pistons average 103.1 PPG and they concede 104.4. Blake Griffin leads the nightly charge with 21.7 points, 7.5 boards and 5.5 assists per night and he had 31 in a losing cause against Toronto.

I’ll point out though that Chicago is 0-4 ATS in its last four following an ATS victory, while Detroit is still a competitive 7-5 ATS against the division this season. 

The Bulls two recent victories came over Dallas and Memphis, but they now face a desperate and hungry team that’s going to be risking life and limb today in trying to secure a victory.

This line could easily be a lot larger in my opinion. Lay the points, play on the Pistons.

Good luck…Larry

This is an 8* LATE BREAKING PERFECT STORM is on Old Dominion (4:00 EST).

No. 3 seed WKU gets ready to take on No. 2 seed ODU on Friday afternoon in the semi-final of the Conference USA Tournament and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Monarchs.

WKU smashed UAB 98-70 on Thursday, putting up 52 points in the second half to advance to this point. Justin Johnson led the way in the victory with 19 points and ten boards. 

ODU had a more difficult time in its 62-58 win over Louisiana Tech and it won’t be taking anything for granted today because of the closer than expected call. The Monarchs hit 40.8 percent from the floor and went 16 of 19 from the charity stripe. BJ Stith was a bright spot in the victory with 22 points and 12 boards. 

I’ll point out though that Western Kentucky is a poor 2-6 ATS in its last eight after scoring 98 points or more in its previous contest, while ODU is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 neutral site affairs. 

I think the Hilltoppers have a predictable letdown here after their big win last night and I expect the Monarchs to step up and take full advantage.

Play on Old Dominion.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on Kentucky (3:30 EST).

Kentucky was 10-8 in conference play and earned a bye to make it to this point of the SEC Tournament. While the Wildcats missed out on a fourth straight SEC regular season title, the team still has a legitimate shot at taking the conference tournament. Note that Kentucky owns a 43-11 mark in quarterfinal action in the SEC tournament. 

UK won’t be taking anything for granted here either as it narrowly defeated the Bulldogs at home back in December, a game in which Kevin Knox was held to an uncharacteristically poor 2-of-10 shooting. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was a bright spot in the near loss with 21 points.

Georgia is a good team, but it comes in “gassed” here, beating Vanderbilt 78-62 on Wednesday, before an exhausting 62-60 win over Missouri yesterday. 

Additionally I’ll point out that Georgia is just 2-4 ATS this year in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent, while Kentucky is 12-8 ATS in its last 20 neutral court affairs.

Kentucky is the deeper and much “fresher” team and everything points to a lop-sided blowout once the final horn sounds. Lay the points with confidence.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on St. Joseph’s (2:30 EST).

This is the second quarter final of the A-10 Tournament. George Mason held on for an 80-75 win over UMass yesterday, while St. Joseph’s earned a bye to make it to this point. 

The Patriots were only 1.5 point favorites yesterday and while the team did manage both the SU and ATS victory, it was anything but easy. Tied 39-39 at the half, it was a nail-biter until the final moments.

Suffice it to say, I expect the Patriots to come in here a little flat footed after their big win just last night. 

George Mason only shot 35.9 percent from the floor and got 21 points from Otis Livingston II in the satisfying victory. 

St. Joe’s has only lost once in its last seven games and it just happens to be to these very Patriots. Suffice it to say, I think its payback time! George Mason rallied for the 79-76 road win over the Hawks, who have since recovered their form. 

In their most recent 78-70 win over La Salle, the Hawks hit 48.1 percent from the floor and also held a 39-31 advantage on the glass. James Demery was a standout with 18 points off the bench (note that Demery has posted 39 points and 13 boards over his last two games.)

I’ll point out that George Mason is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight as the underdog, while St. Joe’s is 5-2 ATS this season in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent (it’s also 3-0 ATS the last two years when playing with five or six days rest.)

Revenge is a dish best served cold. Lay the points with confidence, play on the Hawks.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on West Virginia (9:30 EST).

The 18-13 Baylor Bears get ready to battle the 22-9 WVU Mountaineers in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the favorite.

If recent history is any precedence, then WVU certainly has to be feeling confident here as it posted the 57-54 victory in the first meeting between the schools and then a more convincing 71-60 win in the second this year.

Baylor averages 75.8 PPG and it concedes 69.5. Jo Lual-Acull Jr. was a standout in both losses to the Mountaineers for the Bears, posting double-doubles in each setback, including 16 points and ten boards in the second. Baylor comes in with zero momentum though after losing three of its last four.

WVU averages 80.4 PPG and it concedes 68.9. The Mountaineers will be eager to return to form here after an 87-79 OT road loss to a determined Longhorns team in their regular season finale. Keep your eyes on Daxter Miles Jr, who averaged 13.5 points over his final six games of the season. 

I’ll point out as well that Baylor is already just 1-3 ATS this year in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent, while WVU is 4-2 ATS this season off a loss against a conference rival.

The Mountaineers have been particularly efficient against the Bears defensively this year, limiting them to 35.8 percent and 32.8 percent shooting over the first two meetings. 

Five players average double digits for West Virginia and it’s that depth which I believe will once again prove to be too much for the Baylor to overcome. 

Lay the points, play on West Virginia.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is in North Carolina (9:30 EST).

UNC enters off a 78-59 destruction of Syracuse in the opener of the tournament and it’ll be out for some revenge here after losing at home to the Hurricanes just over a week ago on a 30-foot 3-point shot from Ja’Quan Newton.

The Tar Heels looked sharp in the win over the Orange, limiting Syracuse to just 33.3 percent shooting and suffice it to say, I believe the team carries that momentum over here. 

Kenny Williams was a standout in the victory with 17 points, while Theo Pinson would add 16 points, 11 boards and five assists. UNC comes into this one averaging 83 points and conceding 74. 

Miami averages 74.5 points and it concedes 67.6. The Hurricanes had to hold on for dear life in their 69-68 home victory over Virginia Tech on March 3rd and the extra time off here won’t help in my opinion. 

Ultimately I feel that UNC’s depth and superior offense will prove to be too much for the Hurricanes to handle down the stretch. Play on the Tar Heels.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Minnesota Timberwolves (8:05 EST).

Boston lost to Houston, but then bounced back with a 105-89 win in Chicago on Monday. This is the final game of the C’s road trip and I think they suffer a letdown here against the hungry Wolves, who enter off two straight losses, most recently a 116-108 setback at Utah on Friday. 

This is a revenge game for Minnesota as well, which has dropped three straight in the series, including a 91-84 setback at Boston on January 5th. 

Boston comes into this one averaging 104.4 PPG and it concedes 100.1. Kyrie Irving leads the nightly charge with 24.8 points and 5.1 assists per game, while Al Horford adds 12.8 points, 7.5 boards and 4.9 assists per night. Jaylen Brown led all scorers though with 21 in Boston’s win over the Bulls.

Minnesota averages 109.7 PPG and it concedes 107. Karl-Anthony Towns averages 20.4 points and 12.2 boards per game, while Anthony Wiggins adds 17.9 and 4.1 a night. Wiggins was a bright spot with 27 points in the losing cause to the Jazz.

With two nights off before a game at home against Indiana, I think Boston gets caught looking ahead here.

The Wolves are injured, but they’re rested and determined. I’m banking on the home side taking advantage and rallying, play on Minnesota.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* BIG WEST TOURNAMENT TOP TOTAL is on the OVER between LBSU and Cal State Fullerton (5:30 EST).

LBSU comes in having won two straight, finishing league play with a 9-7 record and entering the tournament as the No. 5 seed. The 49ers have a good shot at winning this tournament if they can continue that momentum. LBSU got 17 points from Gabe Levin in the 49ers’ 77-59 win over Riverside last time out, while Deishaun Booker added 16 points and ten boards. 

Cal State Fullerton is 10-6 and comes in as the No. 4 seed. Cal State will be eager to return to form though after an unimpressive 68-60 home loss to Hawaii in its regular season finale.

These teams played twice in the regular season and each was a rather higher-scoring affair, with the 49ers beating the Titans 81-73 in the first one and then CS Fullerton returning the favor in an 81-71 victory at home in the second. The Titans would post 54 points in the second half of the final matchup against LBSU, getting 25 points from Kyle Allman.

I’ll point out as well that LBSU has seen the total go over the number in nine of 15 against teams with winning records this year and in nine of its last 13 tournaments games overall, while CS Fullerton has seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of its last four after scoring 60 points or less its previous outing.

Both teams are hungry and I expect the overall determination exhibited by each to translate into offensive production on the court. This number is a little low, play the over.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* ACC TOURNAMENT GAME OF THE YEAR is on Virginia (12:00 EST).

Louisville pulled off the slight upset in yesterday’s 82-74 victory over FSU and it’s reward is a date against the No. 1 team in the Tournament and also the nation. 

And Virginia will hardly be taking anything for granted here, as it would need a last second three-point shot from De’Andre Hunter to secure the 67-66 road win in January, after also taking the matchup at home earlier in the season. 

I think the Cardinals come in “gassed” here after their big win over the Seminoles, in which they roared out to a 41-22 halftime lead and then never looked back. Louisville averages 76.6 PPG and it concedes 79.3. Deng Adel leads the nightly charge with 15.4 PPG.

The Cavaliers have offensive talent, they simply choose to play at an extremely slow pace. In fact they’re ranked dead last the country in possessions per game at only 62.1.

Virginia gets the job done though with its smothering defensive play, also leading the NCAA by conceding only 52.8 PPG. 

I think the Cavaliers come in focused and I believe the Cardinals will come in flat. Ultimately I feel that the quick turnaround will be just too much for Louisville to handle. 

This line could easily be a lot larger, play on Virginia.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Washington (9:00 EST).

Oregon State is 15-15 overall, but won two of its final three regular season games, including a 92-67 victory over Washington State in its finale. 

Tres Tinkle, Ethan Thompson and Stephen Thompson Jr. lead a Beavers team which has shot 54.5 percent from the floor over its last three games.

First year Huskies’ coach Mike Hopkins was named the Pac 12 Coach of the Year, while Matisse Thybulle earned 2018 Pac 12 Defensive Player of the Year honors. 

From a trend based stand point, this one favors the Huskies for sure though, as note that Oregon State is a poor 2-6 ATS in its last eight against teams with winning straight up record and only 2-7 ATS in its last nine following a SU victory, while Washington is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven following a straight up/against the spread setback.

These teams have split a pair of games this year, with each contest being decided by a single bucket (OSU won 97-94 in double OT in Corvallis, while WU won 79-77 on March 1st.) 

Everything once again points to a “nail-biter,” so I’m going to grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Detroit Pistons (8:05 EST).

The Raptors are an awesome team, but I think they come in “gassed” here in the second game of the back to back. Toronto was in action just last night, pulling away for a relatively simple 106-90 win over Atlanta.

Detroit plays with in-season double revenge, most recently falling to the Raptors 123-94 in late February. The Pistons also play with desperation after three straight losses, most recently a humbling 112-90 setback on the road in Cleveland on Monday. 

Toronto averages 111.9 PPG and it concedes 103.3. DeMar DeRozan averages 23.7 points and 5.2 assists per game, while Kyle Lowry adds 16.5 points, 5.8 boards and 6.5 assists per game. At this point clinching a playoff spot is not a a matter of if, but when for Toronto, as the Raptors sit 17 games ahead of the Pistons, who are hungry to snap their slide and get out of the ninth place spot in the East. 

Detroit averages 102.9 PPG and it concedes 104.1. Blake Griffin leads the nightly charge with 21.5 points, 7.6 boards and 5.5 assists per night. Griffin had 25 points, eight boards and five assists in his team’s most recent setback to Cleveland.

With a night off before welcoming the league-leading Rockets to town on Friday night, I also think this sets up as a potential “look ahead” spot for the visitors.

While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, everything points to this one coming right down to the wire.

Grab the points.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on California (5:30 EST).

Cal is a horrible team, it finished 2-16 in conference play. Most recently the Golden Bears fell 66-54 to Arizona on Saturday.

Justice Sueing was a bright spot in that one with 14 points. The Golden Bears average 90.8 points per 100 possessions and they allow 110.7 points per 100 possessions. One thing Cal has done well though is forcing turnovers, ranked third in the conference by forcing 20.3 percent on defensive possessions. 

Stanford comes in a tad complacent here after winning four of its final five regular season games, including a thrilling 84-83 road effort at Arizona State in its finale. Stanford ranks in the top five in the conference on both ends of the floor per 100 possessions.

I’ll point out though that Cal is 6-2 ATS in its last eight in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent, while Stanford is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten tournament games and a horrible 2-10 ATS in its last 12 against poor defensive teams which allow 77-plus points per contest.

Cal got the better of Stanford already this season and it’s not going to simply roll over here either. I expect a competitive battle, so grab the points.

Good luck…Larry