New Mexico State has had a peculiar schedule. Thus far on the season they’ve played five road games compared to two at home. It’s part of the reason why they’re short home dogs against undefeated Sun Belt opponent Arkansas State. All season New Mexico State has been a team that rises to the occasion against stiffer competition. Grab the Aggies.

As impressive as Penn State’s win was last week it should not be skewed ATS. Oddsmakers are aware of that and have priced accordingly against Ohio State. Ohio State’s vaunted offensive attack should not skip a beat against a Penn State team that hasn’t been tested to this degree. Grab the Buckeyes. 

Four of five losses for the Buffaloes have shown a far superior weakness offensively than anticipated in pre-season. Buffaloes quarterback Steven Montez performed so poorly last week against the Cougars that he was benched in the second half. Sometimes that is needed be done to get someone to respond. Look for Montez and the Buffaloes to finally resemble the team of last season.

Out in the Pac-12 perhaps no team has been as disappointing as Colorado. They haven’t had the killer injuries some teams have had yet have taken a major step back. Part of that has been due to Steven Montez’s woes. After squeezing out a win over lowly Oregon State, one may side with Washington State after their first loss. Instead, expect the Buffaloes to play their best game in a month. Grab Colorado.

Both the Ducks and Bruins have an inordinate amount of unexpected on the field talent issues. Minus Justin Herbert the Ducks have failed miserably in two straight blowout losses. Yet, UCLA lacks the team discipline to capitalize off of roster matchup advantages. Grab the Ducks to keep this close and within the spread.

Last week Navy caught a break on the road as they covered with a backdoor touchdown and two-point conversion. As ugly as they played it was a winnable performance against a similar octane offense as Central Florida’s in Memphis. Better execution and Navy can keep themselves in this game in similar fashion. The weakened American conference has a knack for boosting team’s AP ranking, and that is the case with Central Florida.

Can the Bruins reshape their season coming off a bye week? They’ll travel to Tucson Saturday against a reinvigorated Wildcats team. Against Colorado last week the Wildcats displayed the type of play many expected under Rich Rodriguez. The victory was against an underperforming Buffaloes team. Grab UCLA to bring a higher level of intensity and get the road win against Arizona.

Out in the Sun Belt Saturday action lies with UL Monroe as a touchdown favorite against Georgia State. Georgia State will look to lean on senior quarterback Connor Manning’s shoulders against a potent Louisiana Monroe team. Both teams are on win streaks but expect Monroe’s defensive edge to dictate the ATS outcome. Grab Louisiana Monroe. 

A battle of top twenty-five teams in the American Conference squares two teams with completely different styles. Memphis is coming off an unchallenged blowout against UConn last Friday. While one may expect their potent play of 70 points to pose a challenge to Navy, they’ll be thwarted at home. Grab Navy.

The Hurricanes miracle victory last week came in the final ten seconds against Florida State. After a victory as such a hangover factor could be in the works against a talented Georgia Tech team. Instead look for the win to inject new life into the Hurricane. Grab Miami.

Two seasons ago Washington State put themselves on the map with an overtime win as steep underdogs in Eugene. That performance was followed up by a blow out win in 2016 of 51-33 over Oregon. After an upset win over USC this is a turning point game for the Cougars to push themselves into the top ten. Instead, look for the seniors and coaching change to Willie Taggart to pay dividends for the home Ducks.

The Buffaloes find themselves amidst a two-game losing streak against a well-rested Arizona Wildcats team. Off a bye week the Wildcats last game was fifteen days ago on a Friday night against Utah. Without a doubt the Buffaloes offense has dropped off from last year’s showcase. With Arizona’s combined two losses by a mere nine points, one would expect this to be close. Instead look for the Buffaloes to execute on both sides of the football and win by double-digits.

Both Idaho and UL Lafayette are coming off bye weeks. UL Lafayette will get their starting quarterback in Jordan Davis back from injury. That’s not where oddsmakers have inflated this point spread. They did so based on the worst defense in football in UL Lafayette. Idaho’s four year senior starting quarterback in Matt Linehan should be able to pick apart the Rajun Cajuns. Still, I’m not impressed with Idaho’s play calling and sloppy turnovers. Grab the value on UL Lafayette.

Excellent game plans against three conservative teams has catapulted San Diego State to 19th ranked and 4-0. San Diego State answered the difficult test of a road conference game in a narrow victory over Air Force last week. Now the shift is how will they respond on their home field against a MAC opponent. Coming off a victory over Nebraska on the road and continuing travel to California has created value on the Huskies side. Grab Northern Illinois. 

Every two to three years there is a powerhouse team that has a steep drop off. At 0-2, Florida State appears to be that team. After two weeks off from Hurricane Irma rust was apparent in last week’s loss to North Carolina State. Yet this point spread is a team can’t go 0-3 line versus reality. While Wake Forest offers a methodical game plan that suits Florida State they have the better defense to offset a fourth quarter melt down.

UMass is now 0-5 but has played respectable defense to hang in games all season long. In fact, all five of their losses are by ten points or less. Ohio has the attraction of rising sophomore quarterback Nathan Rourke but expect consecutive road games to play a role Saturday. The point spread is off here by a mere few points based on UMass’s winless season.

Time and time again Appalachian State has been the circled team to topple the big schools. Instead they’ve disappointed with lopsided losses to Miami in 2016 and this year to Georgia 31-10. Last week’s 20-13 win as steep favorites to Texas State has put this line out of position a tad. As strong as Wake Forest has looked, expect a down to Earth performance before they embark in ACC play.

Expected offensive and defensive rust is to be displayed by Eastern Michigan Saturday. Their last game occurred fourteen days ago on September 9th in an upset win over the lowly Rutger Scarlet Knights. Against a dynamic Ohio offense the Eagles are going to need to show a surge in offense that they did not display in wins against Charlotte and Rutgers. Expect new wrinkles to be unveiled and for Eastern Michigan to take advantage of their rest.

Saturday, we’ll grab the road value on Idaho as they take on South Alabama. South Alabama has faced the tougher competition with games against Ole Miss and Oklahoma State. That rise in competition stands out to the weaker schedule of Idaho. Idaho struggled in consecutive losses including a home loss of 44-16 to UNLV. Yet, look for conference play to offer the familiarity needed to cover against South Alabama. Cimini’s Take, Idaho.

The ra-ra emphasis after week one’s loss to Maryland worked for Texas Coach Tom Hermann. In week two they shutout San Jose State to the tune of 52-0. Yet, this week they’ll be facing the destiny of the future of the Longhorns program. Transformation growth as a true contender took the Trojans countless years. They’re finally out in front of media’s expectations and bookmakers. Grab the Trojans to continue to cash ATS. 

Often smaller conferences that bode well in early non-conference scheduling get an improper evaluation. New Mexico State played a tight game against Arizona State, and upset New Mexico for the second consecutive year. They performed above expectations in both of those games by neutralizing their opponents speed. In-conference against Troy expect the script to be flipped. Troy has excelled within the conference and has annihilated New Mexico State by a combined score of 104-13 the last two meetings. Cimini’s Take: Troy.

A battle in Ohio against MAC school Miami-Ohio and Cincinnati serves as this week’s trap line of the week. Without a doubt Miami-Ohio has the more fluid team on both sides of the football, and attention of the betting markets. Time and time again the Bearcats have been a major letdown under quarterback Hayden Moore in key and under the radar matchups. Yet, this is a spot where Hayden Moore can unmask some of his talent to keep the Bearcats within reach. Take the points here.

The first few weeks of the football season can create an over reaction from the betting markets. Clemson’s carry over value as National Champion grew with stout week one and week two performances. Seemingly the value here lies on Louisville’s perceived poor performances in close victories over Purdue and North Carolina. Look for the Cardinal to show their team growth as a whole as they tone down the pressure off of Lamar Jackson’s shoulders.

Minus former offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin, Nick Saban has got the offense he wants. A more aggressive attack that can compliment their ferocious defense. The worry here is Colorado State senior quarterback Nick Stevens should be able to get late scores for a backdoor opportunity. Instead, expect the next in-line Alabama second and third unit players to treat their time on the field as one of their last opportunities to shine.

We’ve seen a massive point spread leap from the opening to closing line here. The home Washington State Cougars originally opened in the 15-15.5 range. To climb to 21 is a sign of an oddsmaker error. Yet, I’ll attribute the line move based on two embarrassing losses by Oregon State that had received public/sharp backing (Colorado State/Minnesota). After losing 48-14 to Minnesota last week expect Oregon State to finally start to look like a Pac-12 team. 

An unusual game plan in week one from the Sun Devils masked some of their carry over issues from prior seasons. Against New Mexico State they made nearly zero defensive substitutions the entire game, and their offense did not show consistency. San Diego State does not have Donnel Pumphrey at running back anymore but has the better balanced team to get the point spread cover. They also have the mental edge knowing they can defeat a Pac-12 team from last year’s 45-40 victory over California. Cimini’s Take: Grab San Diego State.

The Houston Cougars make their season debut Saturday. Their debut was postponed by a week due to cancellation of their week one matchup against UTSA due to Hurricane Harvey. New Coach Major Applewhite will make his debut as well and looks to fill the void of former quarterback Greg Ward Jr. Arizona’s explosive offense will be a challenge for the Cougars but this is a spot where you lean on the line movement being proper. Cimini’s Take: Grab the Cougars.

A revenge game or spot is a term often verbalized in the betting markets. In all likelihood this is an off the radar non marquee matchup that is sure to attract that lingo. Last year the Aggies upset the Lobos as 13-13.5 point underdogs at New Mexico.  In that game the Aggies used the Lobos aggressive offensive attack against them. It was a similar style witnessed last week in a six point loss to ASU. Grab the Aggies familiarity to hold course again. Cimini’s Take: New Mexico State +7.5

Brian Kelly has endured a luxury most coaches at high level programs aren’t afforded. Time. Amidst suspensions and talented teams not meeting expectations, the Irish have continued to show patience with Kelly. Entering the season right inside the top twenty-five has lowered the program expectations which could be the strength of the Irish. Georgia continuously falters against top competition and will fail to keep up with the octane Irish. Cimini’s Take: Notre Dame.

Week one’s marquee games have taken a bit of thunder away from week one’s Texas A&M at UCLA matchup. Last year’s matchup featured an overtime thriller that the Aggies pulled off 31-24. With the Aggies unsettled at quarterback and heading on the road to UCLA this spot would seem advantageous for the Josh Rosen led Bruins. Except that Rosen struggled with three interceptions against the Aggies last year and only played in six games last season. His last start was October 8th. Expect almost a full year layoff and pressure to perform well to hinder the Bruins and Rosen. Cimini’s Take: Texas A&M

Virginia Tech -4

Making his debut for the West Virginia Mountaineers is quarterback Will Grier. Grier has the attraction of SEC eyes and the fact that he was 6-0 as a starter for Florida. Coach Dana Holgorsen is known for showcasing an arsenal of prolific offensive packages. Can Grier match the skillset necessary to run Holgorsen’s offense? Not in game one against a top notch Virginia Tech defense that’s downgraded from a point spread perspective due to the team starting a redshirt freshman quarterback in Josh Jackson. Cimini’s Take: Virginia Tech

Ole Miss -23.5

The resignation of former Coach Huge Freeze was a shock that figures to add value to Saturday’s opener. The Rebels are coming off an unimpressive 5-7 season, in which they struggled to defeat Sun Belt opponent Georgia Southern 37-27. Saturday’s opponent in South Alabama has vast experience with senior tailback Xavier Johnson and quarterback Dallas Davis. Yet, expect Ole Miss to make a statement and capitalize off of turnovers. Cimini’s Take: Ole Miss.

What a matchup Monday for the title. Alabama has been exceptional this year, which may be their downfall Monday. Clemson as a whole has always been the type of team that plays up or down to their competition, as witnessed on several occasions in ACC and non-conference play. There is unfinished business here from a Tigers team that has the arsenal to take advantage of the few cracks of Alabama. Quarterback DeShaun Watson is already confident from last year's game, while the defense wants to raise their level of play from their letdown a year ago. Had Clemson ran the table there is no doubt this spread would be closer to 4. We'll grab the points and see a close finish similar to last year.

New Mexico -7.5

New Mexico looks to take advantage of their home field as they take on UT San Antonio. UT San Antonio snuck in at 6-6 but did stand forth in close losses against Colorado State and ASU. Yet, New Mexico has an up tempo offense that will be too much for Texas San Antonio. Grab the Lobos to put on an offensive show.

Wisconsin -3

Sometimes it's hard to resist the new and improved team, which is Penn State. They've won with an array of different styles and are coming off an impressive cover against Michigan State. Yet the Badgers have the formula of play that is suited for handling counters of Penn State for four quarters. Grab the Badgers.

Georgia State +7

Here will look at two teams that quite frankly are even on paper. Idaho's above average offensive display lately and home advantage has inflated this line. Georgia State has vastly under achieved and has the offense to test an Idaho defense masked by a great offense. Grab Georgia State as our last Sun Belt play of the season.

LA Lafayette -6.5

It's been an oddsmaker nightmare all season for Lafayette. I've harped on this fact all season long, and will conclude with it here. A shift has occurred as Lafayette finishes out the season as they've been strong against the number. They've done so by trusting their defense and toning down expectations of the offense. It's worked as turnovers have dwindled. Monroe is a team that can't function successfully without pace. Look for Lafayette to disrupt Monroe's pace and win the turnover battle.

New Mexico State +13

With doubt on New Mexico's State's starting quarterback it would seem that South Alabama should be in for an easy win. A win and they'll be eligible for a bowl game. Yet, I'm always a proponent to be leery on backing teams needing one more win that have had a poor conference season. South Alabama's success came pre-conference schedule as they've been dysfunctional in the Sun Belt. Grab the Aggies to fight and hold within the spread.

Colorado -9

At first glance it may be shocking to see the Buffaloes as nine point favorites. Yet, they've grown on both sides of the football. Offensively they continue to score at a high rate, and now their defense has met the challenge. Utah has struggled to generate four quarters of consistent offense, and this matchup should see a rise in their faults. Grab the Buffaloes.

Idaho -5.5

All season long I've harped on South Alabama and their downgrading play. They've come to play against San Diego State and Mississippi State. Outside of those wins they've struggled especially in-conference play. On the road against a potent Idaho team is not a prime scenario for the Jaguars. Grab the Vandals.

Boise State -8

In a year where the Mountain West has seen other teams raise their level of talent, perhaps Boise State is still being devalued. They're certainly not the same level top-tier team they were under Chris Peterson, but they have the extra skill positional players you look for on the road in a tough road environment. Air Force should challenge in this game for two and perhaps two and half quarters. But expect Boise State to pull away late.

Oregon State -5

The bottom of the Pac-12 features a matchup that many will ignore. Oregon State has lost five consecutive and both programs are 2-8. Yet, there's a difference with a team with a losing record that showcases fight versus a program that needs an obvious change of staff. This is a vote of confidence game for Coach Riley to build his OSU program for next season, while the Wildcats direction is unclear. Grab the Beavers.

BYU -28

This season UMass has hung in contests against Mississippi State, Florida, South Carolina, and Troy for a half. Under normal circumstances this spread would be in the mid 30's, as BYU has not been a strong backer ATS. Even off a bye week, UMass's tough schedule and road travel (close out the season with five of seven road games) are too much to ignore.

Georgia State +3

Oddsmakers are anticipating a close game here as both teams have battled injuries amongst their teams in particular at quarterback. This will come down to the better defense which sides with the aggressive linebackers of Georgia State. Grab the plus 3.

Texas State +8

Here we have two teams that have seen their value go up/down exponentially. Idaho has showcased a flourishing offense while Texas State has been in shambles on both sides of the football. Yet, this is likely the last opportunity for Texas State senior quarterback Tyler Jones to garner a win. Look for a valiant effort from Texas State.

Stanford -3

Stanford cost us last week narrowly ATS but we'll back them here against the Ducks. The road factor and Stanford's abysmal offense are expected to be vulnerable here on the road. Stanford's defense has also been susceptible to big plays all season long. Yet, the Cardinal keep themselves in games, and that's where you expect Oregon's faltering ways to continue. Grab the Cardinal

Clemson -21

Against a mid-tier conference opponent that has an above .500 record you might be hard pressed to back the Tigers. Yet, Clemson seems to be awakened by a near loss to Florida State. This is the type of late season game where the Tigers need to feel where they're at as they prepare to close out the regular season. Grab the Tigers here to cover the number.

Cincinnati +11.5

Undoubtedly the Bearcats have tailed off as far as any team in the country from where they were two even three seasons ago. Central Florida on the other has shown what hard work can do for a program in a short period. Yet, this line is a bit too high for my liking considering the up tempo game expected here. Grab the Bearcats.

Down in Baton Rouge I'll side with the value of an Alabama team that's caught the right side of the number consistently this season. Breaking down those covers the inflated lines grew to the Crimson Tides favor in large part due to special teams or defensive touchdowns. LSU not only has the size to contend with Alabama but I also believe they themselves can come up with an outlier play to turn the tide on Bama ATS. Grab the eight points here.

I've stated all season that oddsmakers have had issues with UL Lafayette. They have the talent on both sides of the football to be sizable favorites at home, but haven't fit the role of earning that label. In fact, they've been six point favorites or less at home in nearly all of their match ups. Turnovers have plagued them all season and Idaho is a team that has done well in converting turnovers into points. Grab Idaho to be the latest to drive oddsmakers nuts on Lafayette.

Similar to the NFL in CFB you can catch some eye-popping value on re-evaluated teams. Stanford's season isn't anywhere near expectations, while Oregon State has shown the ability to play within the number against both Boise State and Utah. Folks also probably remember the Cardinal losing momentum in last year's second half against the Beavers. Yet, the Beavers offense has not looked the part to sustain four quarters against the Cardinal. Grab Stanford.

Perhaps no conference has witnessed more instability from the top to bottom than the ACC. Wake Forest and Virginia exemplify that with inconsistent play on a weekly basis. Here I see a bit of devaluing on the Demon Deacons off a poor loss to Army. A game they let swing the opposite way at home with poor execution in the latter stages of the third/fourth quarter. Sometimes playing a non-conference game that late in the season can throw a team off. Grab the Demon Deacons to refocus Saturday and catch a Virginia team that has come full circle from an oddsmakers perspective from their early season struggles.

 The irish are the Forrest Gump of college football as you never know what you're going to get on a weekly basis. Yet, holding off a talented Miami team created value this week against the feisty Midshipmen. Rather than believe the Irish are setup to get in their own way Saturday, I believe they'll put together their first complete game. It may have took until November but the Irish take a step forward Saturday.

Georgia State

Georgia State is a team far less potent than last year's team. Yet, they are showing a bit of growth on a week to week basis that points to trending upward. Arkansas State on the other hand may be a flash in the pan in my opinion. They stomped on Monroe last week, defeated South Alabama handily, and caught a backdoor cover/win against Georgia Southern. Those are eye popping and attractive with a small road number. Today though I'm leery of their defense/offense continuing on the upward path on the road. Grab Georgia State.

Clemson -4

Clemson hasn't won pretty this season in games that you'd expect that to do so. Yet, they are still undefeated and have a key win over a Louisville team that Florida State struggled against. This just isn't the same Florida State Seminoles team of years past. This is a spot where the point of the season bodes to Clemson's side ATS. They know what they're capable of when playing at peak levels and what can happen if they play sluggish football. Look for Clemson to learn from last year's rusty performance against FSU to make the necessary plays to get us the cover.

Memphis -6.5

Memphis Coach Mike Norvell has quietly got the Memphis program going in the right direction. Keep in mind this was a program that lost several key players from last years ranked team including quarterback Paxton Lynch. Tulsa plays a similar action packed brand of football but Mike Norvell's is relentless with more layers. Grab the Tigers Saturday.

ASU +9.5

Last week we covered with the Sun Devils who had to use their fourth string quarterback. That was not expected, this week it is assured. Therefore, oddsmakers have had no choice but to put out a sizable number. Yet, ASU's defense has performed much better than the stats show the last three weeks. This is a game where ASU can run the football at will and rely on a big play or two defensively. Grab the Devils.

Georgia State +5 

South Alabama did cover the number in their last game against Troy. Yet, glaring issues with why they've struggled this season and ATS lurked as they blew a home lead. Georgia State on the other hand has talent level above their record achievement. Grab Georgia State to cover here.

UConn +7

UConn's been a distrustful team compared to the upward trend they showcased last season. Their defense has not been able to support them on a weekly basis similar to last year's game plans. On the road against East Carolina figures to be too steep of a challenge yet again. Still, this is a game where UConn can get enough going offensively to stay within this number. Grab the Huskies.

ASU +7.5

You can't fault oddsmakers for having a hard time with the number against ASU. They have had instability nearly the entire season at quarterback, and statistically have one of the worst defenses in terms of yards per play. That figures to be a huge issue against Washington State's vaunted passing attack, correct? After all, last season at Washington State it was post half-time adjustments from Mike Leach that allowed the Cougars to upset the Devils.

Yet it's a different ball game when your the favorite after exceeding expectations with dominating wins over Oregon and Stanford. Look for ASU to play this game safe defensively which should allow for a close game in the fourth quarter. Grab ASU to sneak under the number.

UL Lafayette -5

Down in the Sun Belt the Rajun Cajuns travel to face Texas State. In past seasons Texas State has been a quality team to back ATS led by their senior quarterback Tyler Jones. Yet, in sports we often see collegiate athletes in major conferences sputter during their senior seasons. It's hardly seen in smaller conferences but that's been the case with Tyler Jones. Something is off and Texas State as a whole is not a quality enough team to offset his down trending play. Grab Lafayette to be the latest team to hand Texas State a loss ATS.

UCLA -7

Between the Bruins and Utes it's hard to argue which team is underachieving more. Yet, in a game between two teams playing below their capabilities I harken back to coaching and in-game management. Time and time again the Utes have defeated themselves with improper play calling and costly errors. The Bruins also are a bit under rated here as their offense should be able to put up points against the Utes defense. That's an outlier here as the Utes have not been a potent offense all season long.

Notre Dame

            The inkling here is that Stanford hit a patch in a rigorous Pac-12 schedule amidst an unsettled offense. Possibly. In fact, if not for a late rally against UCLA they could be in a three game losing streak.

            Notre Dame has free falled to a destination no one imagined. Yet, there is an angle here as the independent Irish have played Stanford yearly. That's an edge factor for the Irish upperclassmen and the better quarterback in this game with DeShone Kizer. Do not forget how comfortable Kizer looked in the second half of last year's loss against the Cardinal. Look for the Irish to make enough x-factor plays to send the Cardinal to their third consecutive loss.

Arkansas State

            Arkansas State got their first win in come back fashion over Georgia Southern last Wednesday. In the win Georgia Southern let off the gas a bit with injuries at quarterback. That coupled with South Alabama coming off a bye in which they defeated San Diego State outright is a contrarian factor. Grab Arkansas State to get the cover on a cheap favored line.

Oregon State

            The mindset of the Pac-12 is the league has become watered down. I see the opposite as teams in transition are challenging the former elites properly. One of those teams still struggling to do so is Oregon State. Yet, they've shown toughness to play solid in stretches.

            Those elements of a solid quarter or a half can carry over at home against the Utes. Utah is not built to blow out teams. Grab the Beavers to become the latest Pac-12 team to surprise on Saturday.

Northern Illinois

            Out in the MAC conference I like the value on the slightly home underdog Northern Illinois. Central Michigan has had a tough time since early in the season after their upset win over Oklahoma State. That win is still factored in this spread versus their losses to Western Michigan and Virginia. Look for Northern Illinois to continue to score against a reeling Central Michigan defense.

ASU

As poor as the Sun Devils looked last week they're 4-1. UCLA handled their business in accorded fashion against Arizona. Yet, they have not resembled the growth expected of a promising Bruins team. 

With ASU quarterback Manny Wilkins likely out that leaves more concerns for an ASU team. 

This though could be a boost for ATS backers as Todd Graham may have to tone down his aggressive defensive ways.

There is enough talent offensively for the Devils to hang in this one, especially at home. Grab ASU.

Arkansas

We're at the point that is natural to happen with a Nick Saban dominant team. Alabama has drifted to maybe it's highest level of ATS value with their offense matching their stout defense.

Yet, oddsmakers are on top of it, and are in this one.

Arkansas has been flying a bit under the radar in an SEC conference that has seen value driven down with teams such as LSU--Georgia--and the helper skelter Volunteers.

Grab Arkansas to stay in this one and be prepared from a coaching standpoint for four quarters of rigorous football.

UL Monroe 

Monroe will be put the test against an Idaho team that can score the football. Yet, even off an embarrassing loss to Auburn I like the strides Monroe has shown on both sides of the football. Their defense is trustworthy at home to back as a small favorite. Lock in Monroe as our latest Sun Belt winner.

New Mexico State

Last week New Mexico State lost to Troy in beat down fashion worse than last year's shellacking.

This week they return home to face a UL Lafayette team that oddsmakers can't get right.

They've covered three consecutive games on small numbers, which frankly has been fortunate.

Offensively they've turned the ball over at an alarming rate and quarterback Anthony Jennings seems a bit lost on the field.

Frankly, there defense has kept them in games but that will be a tough task against a New Mexico State offense that can spread the football around.

Grab the value here on the home dogs.

California

The Cal Bears have been a tricky team to evaluate as they've lost three consecutive games in small margins.

Defensively they've been torn apart as Texas, ASU, and San Diego State all piled up yards and points against them.

Seemingly facing a disciplined Utah team would figure against them as well.

Yet, last year Cal matched up well against Utah on both sides of the football. In fact, if it were not for a mistake prone game by quarterback Jared Goff they likely would have pulled off the upset at Utah.

Davis Webb was nearly the sole difference in a win last week against ASU, this Saturday he is. Take the Cal Bears.

BYU

Coming into this season expectations were high for BYU with sixth year starter Taysom Hill returning.

Those expectations have simmered as the offense has fallen backward from where it was last season.

Facing an underrated MAC representative in Toledo could pose a letdown spot for the Cougars.

Yet, there's two sides of units to factor in when handicapping and I believe it's the Cougars defense that rises to the occasion here.

Ignore Hill's struggles and look for the Cougars defense to deliver the value and cover Friday night.

Throughout Arizona State's struggles this season, the Sun Devils have made proper adjustments in second halves to avoid a loss.

California has a style of play that bodes to Arizona State's home field advantage and ability to adjust as the game goes on.

Expect ASU's young defense to cause disruptions and for ASU's under rated scoring offense to pile up points against the Cal Bears.

Down in the Sun Belt there is a lot of unknown with the majority of teams. UL Lafayette is one as they've been a bit dysfunctional in the early portion of there season.

The past two weeks they snuck by McNeese State and South Alabama with fortunate turnovers and big plays from the offense.

Yet, Tulane's style of play fits to the advantage of UL Lafayette.

Though this is the Rajun Cajuns first road game of the season expect them to be prepared against the Green Wave.

Last year the Ducks resurrected their season with a big road win against Colorado as slight favorites.

In that game the big advantage centered on the Ducks clear speed advantage over the Buffaloes.

Even though quarterback Sefo Liufau's status is undetermined the Buffaloes have an extra level of confidence to trust here in Eugene.

Unlike last year where the Buffaloes ran out of gas, expect them to hang tough and play two full halves against the Ducks.

This is an opportunity that the Sooners could have only hoped for after losing to the Houston Cougars.

A win at home against perennial dominant Ohio State and continued wins and the Sooners will have bypassed the waiting game in December.

Having faced the Cougars duel threat quarterback in Greg Ward should have the Sooners better prepared for Buckeyes quarterback JT Barrett.

Expect a grand Big 12 style up and down game that will be unaccustomed for Ohio State in the Big 10. 

Home field and consistent big plays will be the difference on the Sooners side here.

Adjusting to LSU transfer quarterback in Anthony Jennings has been an early season transition for Louisiana Lafayette.

Furthermore, the Rajun Cajuns defense has not helped make the process for Jennings easy. They allowed forty-five points in week one against Boise State and twenty-two points a week ago against McNeese State.

To start the season this will be the Rajun Cajuns third consecutive home game, which will be a deciding factor here.

Don't be surprised to see Lafayette score a considerable amount higher than the points allowed from South Alabama's defense of just twenty one against Miss State and twenty-four against Georgia Southern. 

Appalachian State nearly became week one Cinderella stories yet again against the Tennessee Volunteers.

Falling short may have turned value in our favor here in week three against the Miami Hurricanes.

The Hurricanes have started off their new era under Mark Richt with a 2-0 record. Yet, they struggled in the first half last week against Florida Atlantic with two touchdowns in the latter part of the second quarter.

On the road expect that rust to carry over and play to the strength of Appalachian State, who will be prepared this time to finish off a major division one school.

San Diego State

It's not often that you'll see a Mountain West team favored by a touchdown over a Pac-12 school.

While the Pac-12 enjoyed a solid week one, California is a team that is in an obvious down-turn in the conference.

On the other hand San Diego State may be one of the more under rated teams in the country. They've been shielded by the great success of Boise State and the inability to attract a main bowl game.

Look for the small school Mountain West Aztecs to ride fourth year starting tailback Donnel Pumphrey to a statement win over the Pac-12 Bears.

New Mexico State

We're venturing under the radar for a Saturday in-state rivalry matchup.

After defeating South Dakota 48-21, New Mexico travels to face Sun Belt representative New Mexico State.

In each of the past two seasons the Aggies have lost by ten points or less against the Lobos.

Aggies senior quarterback Tyler Rogers has been apart of both games and will have his team prepared for an up tempo game.

Secure the value here on an overlay of points based on the Aggies double-digit loss to the Miners and the Lobos statement win.

An old Big East rivalry clashes tonight as Louisville takes on Syracuse in the historic Carrier Dome.

The Cardinal made some noise last week with a scrimmage-like offensive performance churning 70 points against Charlotte.

Over the years they've enjoyed strong success against a Syracuse program transitioning with a new Coach in Dino Babers and a new athletic director.

Yet, I'll side with the home dog to as Syracuse should be prepared to limit Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson's effectiveness on the ground.

A new regime begins for the George Bulldogs under new Coach Kirby Smart.

Transitioning the program with a light opponent will not be the case as the Bulldogs will take on the rising North Carolina Tar Heels.

The Tar Heels return several key players from a surprising 11-3 season last year. 

At quarterback many are anticipating an upgrade with junior Mitch Trubisky taking over the reigns.

Yet, there is a bit of mirage over the SEC losing its luster after shaky non-conference performances last season.

With change over in Smart, expect to see an aggressive refreshed Bulldogs team.

Play: Georgia -3

Post Freddie Knighten the Arkansas State Wolves will aim to move forward collectively.

To open the season they'll host the Toledo Rockets whom they lost to last year 37-7. In that game Knighten was hurt which contributed to the downfall.

While the Rockets did lose quarterback Philip Ely to graduation they still have dynamic tailback Kareem Hunt at their disposal. 

This may seem like a revenge spot for the Wolves, but I harken back to the great defense the Rockets played in last year's contest.

Expect the Rockets to be prepared for the same schemes defensively and cover a small number as an underdog.

Play: Toledo +4.5

Alabama -6.5

            We'll conclude the bowl season with a play on Alabama to win. This is Alabama's year and I think the second time around oddsmakers have got it right with favoring a BCS team properly against Clemson. The ACC has shown it's down side overall in the bowls while the SEC has shined heavily. Clemson should pose a challenge but you have to believe Saban and companies adjustments will be too much for the Tigers to overcome. Play Bama as last play of the collegiate football season.

Oregon +1

            On the collegiate level there is not a quarterback more entertaining to watch in bowl season than Vernon Adams Jr. Whether the defense gives up a touchdown or he throws an interception his mindset and play does not change. TCU has the back ground of a top five to ten team with senior players exiting. It just was not their year and I believe the Ducks will have their way to close out the Horned Frogs strong program run over the last three years.

Iowa +7

            How Stanford is a seven point favorite here is the one spread I have not figured out. Having watched nearly all their games this season they've played to level of their competition more times than not. Two wins over USC may have their ATS value skewed here. Iowa's defense will force enough turnovers off of Kevin Hogan to keep this within the number.

Michigan State +10

            In the books in Vegas I love to here the commotion on teams. Everyone's mindset is that this is Alabama's year. Maybe it is, but from an ATS stand point they've faltered more times than not. Michigan State Head Coach Mark Dantonio has put on the best coaching job of the season in my eyes. From poor performance wins against Indiana, Purdue, and Central Michigan to solid wins over Iowa/Ohio State. They've also progressed as the season has went on. Alabama will be put the test and likely prevail but expect another strong effort from the Spartans.

Florida State -7

            Florida State in my book has the best value of any team favored by seven or more in bowl season. Two losses this year---one on a blocked field goal as time expired and another against undefeated Clemson---has put this mirage that FSU has had a down season. Instead I expect FSU to show the same pedigree of a championship caliber team that they've displayed over the past two years. Houston's strength in the American conference was their athleticism. That will be nullified at quarterback with Greg Ward Jr and through the defense of the Cougars. Grab FSU.

Miss State -5

            NC State's 19th rated defense has to be looked at under a microscope. Their five losses in conference they allowed over 37 points a game and mind-boggling yardage. Their only wins in-conference were against the bottom feeders of the ACC who had a combined record of 10-28. Nothing changes here as the Bulldogs have too prolific of an offense for the Wolfpack to hold down. Dak Prescott goes out a winner and adds on to a stellar season statistically.

Auburn -2.5

            Memphis strong start and win over an SEC team in Ole Miss may seem like a good reason to back them against the Auburn Tigers. Yet, I did not like what I saw from the Tigers to conclude the season. The offense has not looked the same and the defense may be one of the worst in the bowl season. Adding Mike Norvell as their new Coach puts an added twist in the reason to back the Auburn Tigers. Norvell showed true inconsistencies at ASU as their offensive coordinator that will be spotlighted in this game.

LSU -7

            Les Miles and LSU should have their way defensively and offensively against the Big 12 Texas Tech. It's the same old script we tend to see from the Big 12 in bowl season and won't change against the more physical and powerful Tigers.

California -7

            Jared Goff had woes all season long and did not play like the elite level quarterback that draft prognosticators foresee him as. But when you've been a starter for numerous seasons and are in the Pac-12 your going to face elite talent. California just did not have the talent to surround Goff and be successful in the Pac-12. Facing Air Force will be a different story and I expect Goff to finally have a performance worthy of a high drafted quarterback.

Central Michigan +6

            This is one bowl game where I'll put an asterisk on a defense in the Chippewas that can be supported solely by quarterback play. The Gophers are not a juggernaut scoring team which gives value to the Chippewas who are led by an underrated bowl quarterback in Cooper Rush.

Navy -3

            Something just was off with the Pittsburgh Panthers football team as the season waned on. Under a new Coach they seemed to hit that wall of change. Navy led by all time leading QB rusher Keenan Reynolds should handle this game.

Nebraska +6.5

            A 5-7 team does not belong in bowl season but I believe we'll see a worthy effort from the Corn Huskers. Don't forget Mike Riley has a Pac-12 background from 03-14 as Oregon State Coach. Also, Nebraska has been a great team at playing close games. Five of their losses were by five points or less and all seven by ten or less. UCLA like Memphis defense is too much of an eyesore to back in bowl season.

Duke +3

            Indiana has now crept up to a three-point favorite. Yes, they did have some formidable games in the Big Ten against the Buckeyes and Spartans. But there are certain teams in bowl season that nearly a full month of preparation poses a disadvantage. The Hoosiers are one in my book as they play a style of play game to game that never had any wrinkles. Look for Duke who can win in an array of ways to come out as an underdog winner.

Washington -8.5

            Chris Peterson and people in Washington know that they have a legitimate top 15 team heading into next season. Southern Miss has immense talent but this matchup just doesn't suit them. The Huskies close the season with two wins to become bowl eligible and will have the type of performance that likely will place them as a top fifteen 2016 team.

UConn +5

            UConn has the look of one of those 6-6 teams that puts on a performance far superior than what they showcased in the regular season. Teams from smaller conferences that are juggernauts point wise often are trap teams in bowl scenarios. Look for UConn to be prepared and deliver as an underdog

UL Lafayette -2

            Fans of the Rajun Cajuns are unaccustomed to the struggles they've witnessed from their team this season. The offense has sputtered in close losses to South Alabama and New Mexico State that was topped off by a 21-point loss last week to Appalachian State. To end a three game skid they'll look to do so against Troy which has also had a less than stellar season. The personnel is there for Lafayette. Expect them to grind out another close game but this time pull out the W against a Troy team that will not have an answer for Elijah McGuire.

UL Monroe +2

            Monroe has been an absolute untrustworthy team for the month of November ATS, and has had an abysmal year with a record of 1-11. Yet I like the effort in the way they battled back from a big deficit last week to Hawaii to cover in a two-point loss. Typically you would not find value on a 1-11 team that's just a two-point underdog at home. Monroe will battle hard in this one and get their second victory of the season with a win over New Mexico State which should be relenting on defense