Seeing Auburn finish 3-5 in conference play was shocking. They’ll face a Purdue team that has rose to the occasion this year against top teams such as their win over Ohio State. Senior quarterback David Blough and the Boilermakers will look to replicate their upset last year as a small dog over Arizona. Instead grab the value on Auburn whom has the offensive and defensive balance to topple Purdue ATS. Grab Auburn. 

Stumbling into bowl season is typically a recipe for disaster. Vanderbilt comes into tonight’s bowl with impressive late season wins in SEC conference play. That in itself is an ATS inflator with eyes on the impressive SEC. Look for Baylor’s quick strike offense and speed to keep them in this game. Grab Baylor. 

The MAC for years has been a disappointment during bowl season. That has changed to begin bowl play and I look for that to continue this evening with Buffalo. An interesting angle for today’s bowl is that Troy is playing in their home state of Alabama. The MAC is one of the few conferences thats travel is minimal throughout conference play for away games. That presents value on a Buffalo team thats program is on the rise. Grab Buffalo.

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are one of a team that strangely became better minus their starting quarterback. With backup Kaleb Newman in the team has re-energized with upsets over NC State and a strong win over Duke. Although Memphis is tough to handle defensively for four quarters look for the ACC Demon Deacons to prevail ATS. 

During bowl season the Sun Belt has done an outstanding job over the years. Appalachian State has stood out from the pack thanks to their superb regular seasons. They’ll look to finish off another great year against a Middle Tennessee team that lost two of their final three games. Yet Appalachian State’s methodical offense is an issue ATS. Grab the points here on Middle Tennessee. 

Fresno State will look to finish off a solid year with a victory over a potent Arizona State offense. Arizona State is led by senior quarterback Manny Wilkins whom has done a solid job transitioning from Todd Graham. Still, ASU’s defense is going to have high problems against the Bulldogs offense. That’s where the tail end growth of ASU nixing a defensive strategy comes into play. Look for ASU to match the Bulldogs scoring and cover an aggressive line move.  

A revenge spot for the Sooners lies in Saturday’s Big 12 matchup against Texas. With a win and a Georgia loss the Sooners likely would make it back to the CFB playoff. Motivation to impress for the committee is certainly a spread uplifter. Instead look for Texas to play spoiler in more ways than one. The Sooners have been winning but they’ve shown plenty of weaknesses as of late. Grab Texas.

For the first time the Sun Belt hosts a conference championship. As expected Appalachian State is back but will take on a veteran UL Lafayette team. A vulnerable element for a high spread is the fact that the Mountaineers haven’t been scoring many points in-conference. Instead they’ve relied on their defense and that’s where the value on Appalachian State lies. In four of their six conference wins they’ve allowed ten points or less. Expect much of the same Saturday and a cover.

Two former top twenty-five teams have seen reversals of their seasons. California has turned theirs around thanks to improved defense and winning three of their last four. Meanwhile Colorado has dropped six straight while not covering any of those matchups. Damaging their season further was the firing of Coach MacIntyre, with him gone for Saturday the line has moved further up. Instead of looking at the Buffaloes dropping their heads look for them to play strong. They still have a chance to become bowl eligible and will put up a hard fought game. 

The SMU Mustangs will have one last try to secure a bowl bid after faltering last week to Memphis. They’ll take on a Tulsa team that’s record is not true to their true capabilities. With a chance to play spoiler expect Tulsa to play with impact energy. On the year all four of their home losses were by close margins. That’ll continue Saturday and on a small number be key to an SMU cover. 

In key spots the Syracuse Orangemen have shown they’re still a few key position spots away from having the talent to be elite. In all likelihood they’ll be without senior quarterback Eric Dungey and have to rely on freshman Tommy DeVito. DeVito did not look prepared last week but has shown the capabilities to be an emerging quarterback. Look for Syracuse’s defense to be prepared off the embarrassing performance and boost the Cuse’s chances.

Bettors are backing the strength of schedule of Marshall over Florida Internationals. Marshall faced Southern Miss in conference as the Panthers did not, they also had a non-conference loss to NC State. Returning from three of four road games the pressure is certainly on the Panthers. Look for them to respond 

Nebraska’s end of season conclusion in the right direction has one more stop Friday. They’ll travel to Iowa and take on a Hawkeyes team that is coming off one of the more dominating victories of the season. Last week they walloped Illinois 63-0 to improve to 7-4 on the year. The Cornhuskers will face a step up in class against the Hawkeyes in a road environment. Yet look for the line move to provide value on the underdog. Grab Nebraska. 

There are few teams in college football that have got more out of their talent than ASU. There’s no doubt that Herm Edwards has had his team well prepared week in and week out. Now they’ll venture on the road to Oregon against a Ducks team that’s decimated with injuries on both sides of the football. That’s a big factor in the small line but look for the Ducks to be ready for the Devils simplified game plan. Grab Oregon.

After the Cowboys faltered in the fashion they did one has to wonder their psyche for Saturday. They’ll face a Mountaineers team that has shown no mercy home or away and is primed to put on another offensive dazzling show behind quarterback Will Grier. Oklahoma State’s poor conference record has created value on them Saturday. Look for an enthused Cowboys squad that puts in a max effort. Grab Oklahoma State. 

The fact that Georgia State has not been winning is well known at just 2-8. Yet they’ve been able to produce points within the conference. They’re averaging 31 points per game through six conference games. Yet Appalachian State has a size/speed advantage to limit the Panthers offense. Grab Appalachian State to cruise Saturday.

After a stretch that featured three of four home games the Oregon State Beavers now venture on the road to take on Stanford. Thus far on the year Oregon State’s Pac-12 losses have all been by high-teens or higher. With a Stanford team looking for confidence one would expect this to be a boosting ATS performance. Instead the Cardinals issues are prevalent against any Pac-12 opponent. Look for Oregon State to take advantage in regards to a high number. 

In a span of a week the Utah Utes went from a potential Pac-12 threat to back in the pack with everyone. The defensive schemes of Arizona State gave Utah huge problems as well as a broken collarbone injury to Nick Huntley. Undoubtedly the task will be tough for Utah starting a backup quarterback. Yet Ducks quarterback Justin Herbert has not been the same since a home win against Washington. Grab the home short favorite value on the Utes.

For the first time the Sun Belt conference will host a conference championship this season. That’s a factor to consider in Saturday’s Troy vs Georgia Southern matchup. Over the years Troy has been one of the prominent Sun Belt teams along with Appalachian State, yet Georgia Southern has a chip on their shoulder after last week’s loss. Look for the Eagles to regroup on a number that likely would have been in their favor if they were still undefeated in conference.

A profiled team the last month for myself has been North Carolina. They’ve been a strange team for oddsmakers to figure out. On paper their talent does not match their record of 1-7. It’s been an under lying factor as they have not lost by more than ten points in four straight weeks. This is the week that ATS value is finally on their side as the Duke Blue Devils return home off of three of four road games. Grab the value on North Carolina.

Sometimes towards the tail end of a season you can get reverse value in key matchups. That’s the case with TCU against West Virginia. Off of West Virginia’s thrilling victory over Texas they have their sights on something special. Opposite TCU has struggled mightily at just 4-5 as Michael Collins has taken over at quarterback for injured quarterback Shawn Robinson. Their ugly one point win over Kansas State to end a three-game losing streak did not showcase any positives. Yet look for TCU to hang around as West Virginia comes back down to Earth.

Seeing teams make a big push in the polls late in the year does not happen. For the Syracuse Orangemen they’ve had quite a reversal after a near third straight loss at home against UNC. That game sparked them and they now have regained momentum offensively to match an under rated defense. Over the years they’ve had their woes against Louisville and the Cardinal have not shied away from running up scores. Victories in 2017 of 56-10, 2016 in 62-28, and 2015 41-17. Look for the Orange to give the Cardinal a dose of their own medicine as a heavy upper class Orange squad delivers ATS. 

Stand out successive wins have been the staple for the Ohio Bobcats. They’ve won three straight games by an average of 53 points. Defensively they’ve matched their potent offense by giving up fourteen points in each of those contests. They’ll face a Miami-Ohio team that’s been subpar offensively all season. Yet they’ve also had a road heavy schedule playing five of their last seven away. Look for Miami-Ohio to find balance defensively to keep them in this game. Grab Miami-Ohio. 

The clear front runner in the MAC has been Buffalo. At 8-1 they’ve shown versatility each and every week. This started with a runaway victory as six point road favorites against Rutgers. They’ve also shown an uncanny ability to surpass the number ATS. Tonight should be another instance as the drop down in line value is centered on Kent States recent string of close losses. Grab Buffalo 

Week after week people have been betting against Washington State as the school reaches new heights ATS and in the polls never seen. Last week’s win over the Stanford Cardinal is the type of soaring victory bettors were waiting for. That is a climax season building win that has produced a double-digit line this week against California. Although the Bears have not been consistent offensively they’ve overcome their own adversity from a poor October stretch. Grab the value here on the Bears. 

Frustrations boil over on the field in competitive sports. Tulsa has been a competitive 1-7 team that just has not been able to clear the hurdle late in games. That was evident in a poor series of sequences last week against Tulane that cost them. Yet this week they’ll take on a UConn team that hung around against USF and had a chance to win against UMass last week. That’s a value indicator against them as Tulsa will have fun running up the score as they seek their first American conference win of the season.

Each and every week Missouri has been one of the public/sharps circled teams that continues to fail ATS. This slide has been since their narrow victory non ATS cover in non-conference play against Purdue. An 0-4 SEC conference record has finally circled the wagons in terms of ATS value on their side. Florida is coming off a bad loss to Georgia that is a confidence shaker. Look for the Tigers to capitalize on the double-angle of Florida getting back in the win column and their 0-4 SEC record. 

Tulane has been a puzzling team to figure out. One thing we know is that they step up in big profiled games. This is an tv network game against a South Florida team that likely feels a bit slighted not being ranked off a loss against Houston. Lets face it the storm heading USF’s way was seen for weeks with sloppy play. Tulane may be 3-5 but they’re a competitive team that knows how to stay in games. Grab the line value on Tulane South Florida aiming to get back in the win column. 

The battle of the two teams with a combined 1-16 record takes place in Conference USA Saturday between UTEP and Rice. UTEP had close outcomes against Louisiana Tech and North Texas before last week’s poor home performance against UAB. That’s created value against a Rice team that just can not hold up defensively. Grab the value on the road UTEP Miners. 

Traction on devalued lines is key in any betting sport. Georgia Tech’s buy down is easy to see as they start a true freshman at quarterback for a second consecutive game. North Carolina on the other hand has played in games ATS in road environments against Syracuse and Virginia. Yet this is where the difference of style of play becomes a problem for the Tar Heels. Look for Georgia Tech’s explosive rushing attack to throw off any chance of rhythm for the Tar Heels offense.

Michigan State and Maryland both are seeking to become bowl eligible Saturday. Two of the last the last three weeks Michigan State has caught the eyes of the betting world with wins over Purdue/Penn State. Yet Saturday is a let down spot opportunity as Maryland side steps distractions around the school to become bowl eligible. Grab the Terrapins. 

Two teams at 5-3 in the SEC battle it out Saturday as Texas A&M travels to Auburn. With Auburn coming off a bye week oddsmakers calculated this spread originally at six. Yet Auburn’s not shown an ability to be trustworthy ATS which caused a two point swing. That’s too much buy down in an SEC matchup that has an A&M team showing signs of wearing down. Grab Auburn.

Two programs in the Pac-12 that are trending downward are the Colorado Buffaloes and Arizona Wildcats. Three straight losses by the Buffaloes have put them in a tough spot on the road Friday in Arizona. Furthermore, keep in mind that Khalil Tate’s collegiate break through began against Colorado in last year’s 45-42 victory. Look for Tate to be as comfortable as he was in that matchup and UofA’s offense to continue trending upward. 

Over the years NC State has had Syracuse’s numbers winning outright in four straight. Quarterback Ryan Finley is the accurate deep ball quarterback that has exposed Syracuse’s aggressive defense year over year. Yet I believe we’re at the final stop of Syracuse’s ATS value after last week’s woeful performance against North Carolina. Sometimes a sloppy win over a poor team is an eye-opener. Look for Syracuse to finally hurdle their woes against NC State. 

Certain teams fall just short and that’s been the case of Tulsa. On the year they’ve faltered to a 1-6 record. Their first five losses were close in margin until last week’s 23-0 loss to Arkansas. Now they’ll face a Green Wave team that market wise is still generating the residual affects of an outright win over Memphis on national television. Grab Tulsa to finally end their regular season slide. 

Virginia is one of those teams with a winning record that leads you to believe a questionable conundrum ATS. Yes they’re winning but they’ve done so against the weaker ACC teams. They’re also not scoring a ton of points which is why this weeks line against North Carolina is smaller than one would expect. The Tar Heels nearly defeated Syracuse and I believe a sound Virginia team will be prepared to expose the poor Tar Heels defense. Expect gash plays that lead to touchdowns early and often. 

Sometimes value can be had ATS simply by waiting for further money to pound the wrong team. That’s the case in today’s ACC showdown between the well rested Hurricanes and BC. Switching starters at quarterback to Rosier for the Hurricanes gives them a boost ATS and for people that remember the hurricanes strong run of 2017. Yet look for Boston College to cover on the improper line movement.

Drop down line value exists in Tuesday’s lone college football action between Troy and South Alabama. South Alabama has not been a functional team in terms of wins and losses this year at 2-5. Meanwhile Troy has suffered a setback with quarterback Kaleb Barker out for the season. Fill in sophomore quarterback in Sawyer Smith struggled as they lost to Liberty in their last game. Yet look for a much more focused Troy team that should use their prime advantages offensively and defensively to run away from South Alabama. 

A big game will take place in Conference USA Saturday, as UAB hosts North Texas. On the year already North Texas has passed two major tests with blowout wins over SEC Arkansas and also SMU. That’s created value on a UAB team that people are over looking. Most teams show a level of unfocused leading up to a big game. That wasn’t the case last week as UAB crushed Rice in not allowing a single point. Grab UAB to carry that momentum over on their home field.

For the third time this season Oregon is featured in a small line matchup against a Pac-12 school. Coming off an outright home victory over Washington they have a chance to be the one-loss Pac-12 school to make some noise. Yet parity in the Pac-12 has always been a factor and historically Washington State has given the Ducks fits. Look for Mike Leach to have a proper game plan to take advantage of the Ducks speed. Grab the Cougars.

There is not a team in college football that has experienced the type of slide the Cal Bears have. They went from a viable ranked team to losing ATS and straight up against Oregon, Arizona, and UCLA. To lose the way they did against the Bruins a week ago shows a team that’s lost itself quite a bit. They’ll have a chance to wake up against an Oregon State team that still has know team identity. It may take until the fourth quarter but look for the Bears to show a small reason why they were formerly ranked.

Just three weeks ago Syracuse was a quarter away from being 5-0 and knocking off Clemson. They let that win get away and it carried over to a blown loss to Pittsburgh the following week. Post bye week one would think Syracuse has put aside the emotional let down losses. Yet in college sports one main turn in a season creates ATS momentum. Facing a 1-4 North Carolina team the value remains against the Cuse’. Grab UNC.

Every test this season West Virginia has passed with flying colors. They blew out Tennessee and Kansas State as well as had a nice resume road win against Texas Tech. For Iowa State the unknown at quarterback may help give them the edge they need at home. Third string quarterback Brock Purdy sparked a win against Oklahoma State and has the intangibles to give West Virginia a true test. Grab the home dog Cyclones.

Teams with winning records usually receive an upgraded edge ATS from oddsmakers returning home from a road trip. Out in the Sun Belt that appears to be the case with Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers return home to take on UL Monroe after a three-game road trip. Overall defensively UL Monroe ranks 127th of 130 division one teams. After giving up 70 points last week to Ole Miss the Warhawks enter their third straight road game. Grab the value on Monroe. 

The Huskies have been that familiar team in the top ten for the Pac-12 that have faltered to get over the hump. They’ll have a great chance Saturday in a tough environment against the octane Oregon Ducks. Oregon’s lone blemish on the season was a tough blown loss against the Stanford Cardinal. Off a bye week they’ll have the edge as far as preparation. Yet look for the Huskies defense to rise to the occasion and lead Washington to a victory.

The UNLV Rebels should benefit from a bye week combined with their early season strength of schedule. Losses against Arkansas State and USC both showcased the Rebels potential. Meanwhile New Mexico is coming off a poor loss at home to Liberty. That’s put UNLV in an unfamiliar spot as sizable favorites. It’s not a common thing to see which poses value for Saturday. Grab the Rebels Saturday.

Colorado has planted themselves inside the top twenty-five with wins over Colorado State, Nebraska, and UCLA. All quality wins but also against teams that are not where they expected to be. ASU has had their down to Earth moments with consecutive losses to Washington and San Diego State. Look for the Sun Devils improvement offensively to give them confidence on the road against the Buffaloes. Grab the Sun Devils here. 

Four straight wins from the Buffalo Bulls came to a screeching halt as they were dismantled 42-13 by Army. Now they’ll travel to take on a Central Michigan team that has a tough time getting things going offensively. Junior quarterback Tommy Lazarro has failed to throw for more than 155 yards and the offense is dependable. Yet look for Central Michigan’s defense to carry over the confidence they showcased in the first quarter and parts of the second half against Michigan State. Grab Central Michigan.

The Bearcats will take on the Tulane Green Wave Saturday morning. Tulane comes into this game with sky high confidence after knocking off the octane Memphis Tigers in front of a nationally televised Friday audience. They’ll put the Bearcats defense to the test and will be a popular underdog to start off Saturday. Yet there are always undefeated non top twenty five teams that go under the radar. That’s typical in the American Conference and Cincinnati is a team that will continue to be undervalued ATS. Grab the Bearcats Saturday morning.

Oregon looked like a top ten team for three quarters against Stanford before the wheels fell off. Can a team respond the next week in a loss as such? It’s tough to do and I believe will be a difficult task against the Cal Bears. California already has two solid wins on the year against North Carolina and BYU and arguably should be favored in this matchup. Grab the home underdog.

Undoubtedly a poor loss is going to exponentially affect a team’s morale. Virginia Tech is in that boat after losing in all phases to Old Dominion. Compounding matters is the loss of their star quarterback in Josh Jackson. That’s going to put immense pressure on a Virginia Tech defense that must find a way to stop a high impact Duke offense. With their backs against the wall grab the Hokies to respond ATS.

A team that took some bumps a year ago with a freshman quarterback was Georgia Southern. Their woes were evident as they nearly went winless in Sun Belt play. They’ll take on an Arkansas State team that is well known outside of Sun Belt fans as being a solid ATS performer. Consecutive weeks of wins over Tulsa and UNLV would seem like indicators to prepare Arkansas State for Sun Belt play. Especially with three-year starting quarterback Justice Hansen under center. Yet grab the small line on the home underdog as Georgia Southern continues to show new dimensions compared to last season.

Eastern Michigan finds themselves in an unfamiliar spot as a favorite against Northern Illinois. Sometimes a strong schedule can be boosted too high. Northern Illinois has had that with losses against Iowa, Utah, and Florida State. That’s a value indicator for Saturday as Eastern Michigan is being devalued utilizing two quarterbacks. Grab the Eagles here.

This number continues to go up and rightfully so. Senior quarterbacks often times have a chip on their shoulder against a conference opponent. For Washington’s senior quarterback Jake Browning has that against ASU. Former Sun Devils Coach Todd Graham had his number in disguised defenses that caused Browning’s problems. His freshman year they lost a 17-0 lead and lost 27-17. Last year the Huskies sustained a poor loss in Tempe 13-7. Ignore ASU’s early season success and grab the Huskies to roll here with no mercy.

The Cajun Cajuns continue to have one of the worst defenses in college football. They’ll be put to the test against a Coastal Carolina team with a highly capable senior quarterback in Kilton Anderson. Anderson led an offense that rushed for 333 yards last week against Campbell. Yet look for the home Rajun Cajuns to match Coastal Carolina’s offense, in what should be a miniature Big 12 style result.

A yearly tricky ATS scenario surrounding Florida as a road favorite is their offense. Can they muster enough points in an SEC road environment? One result against SEC school Kentucky already showcased that an issue remains as the Gators lost 27-16. Yet a vulnerability for the Volunteers remains that they play to the level of competition especially in big games. Look for that issue to lurk again creating an ATS grab opportunity for the Gators. Grab Florida.

The Golden Gophers have been a juggernaut ATS to begin the season. At 3-0 they’ll face a Maryland team coming off an embarrassing loss to Temple. Yet sometimes a surprise loss creates carry over ATS value the following week. The Terrapins are never going to be a team that makes it easy, but they’ve grown due to the program issues of the off-season. Look for the Terrapins to cash as slim favorites.

A team that’s surely inflated their value ATS are the Cincinnati Bearcats. The Bearcats have toppled teams in UCLA and Miami Ohio as underdogs for outright wins. They’ll get their second MAC opponent of the year Saturday with a home matchup against Ohio. As great as the Bearcats defense has looked on paper, they’ve had the advantage of playing the right team at the right time. UCLA started a true freshman in Dorian Thompson and Miami-Ohio could not throw a wet ball in down pour conditions. Grab the road value here on Ohio.

San Diego State’s value has continued to slide ATS. They opened the year with a dud performance against Stanford and followed that up by a two touchdown victory over lowly Sacramento State. Without their starting quarterback the Aztecs must try to contain a confident and now ranked Sun Devils team. This surge in Sun Devil value is not false but the number is. Grab the value on the home Aztecs.

For years Texas State has struggled in the Sun Belt conference. They’ll take on a South Alabama team that has converted to a senior quarterback to lead them. The Jaguars have some talent on both sides of the football to cause problems to a vulnerable Texas State team. Yet, look for Texas State to do enough to cover this double digit number. Grab Texas State.

Kansas pulled away last week after a stunning upset the prior. Now they’ll aim to win in consecutive games as home favorites against the Big 10 Rutger Scarlet Knights. This is a team that appears to be in the right situation at the right time in Kansas. Rutgers has been down trending since their days in the Big East and American conference. Grab the value on Kansas to begin the day.

Key line movement that’s noteworthy early in the season typically results in tickets cashed for bettors. Yet I’m leery of that being the case for the Stanford Cardinal. They do possess the experience edge over the talent on the field for USC, but USC showed another gear in the fourth quarter against UNLV. This is a program that’s held itself back for a few years but has had Stanford’s number. Although Stanford has a few days extra rest over the Trojans, look for the value to be on USC. Grab USC.

Cincinnati executed a proper game plan against the Bruins to pull off a double-digit outright road upset. Now they’ll head back to Ohio to take on a familiar opponent in Miami-Ohio. A rematch of last year’s 21-17 victory for the Bearcats. While many will boost the Bearcats from last year’s familiarity there are factors for caution. Miami-Ohio is a more fluid offense than the Bruins at this point and has a quarterback capable of carrying his team on his shoulders. Look for the RedHawks to avenge last year’s loss. 

Sunday, a neutral site matchup will take place in Arlington, Texas as Miami takes on LSU. No team free fell as fast as the Hurricanes did to close out the 2017 season. Three straight losses took them from a BCS contender to a team with questions heading into 2018. Accuracy struggles with quarterback Malik Rosier thwarted the offense. Now a senior look for Rosier and his Hurricane teammates to thrive against the SEC inflated LSU Tigers.

Saturday, SMU will be aiming to win their fourth straight yearly matchup against North Texas. None of the matchups have been close including last year’s 54-32 final. Yet North Texas showcased team growth last year with a 9-3 start. Consecutive losses to close out the year halted their momentum and has created value against an SMU team that has had their number. Grab North Texas.   

Florida International will host the Indiana Hoosiers in a yearly series that has been in order since 2014. Although last year’s game was cancelled due to Hurricane threats. For Indiana they’ll rely on quarterback Peyton Ramsey to push the ball against FIU. Suspended top tailback for the Hoosiers in Morgan Ellison is a blow for the Hoosiers. Yet look for Indiana to once again cover and defeat FIU on the road.

At first assessment of Alabama and Clemson my angle was to side with Alabama. Nick Saban’s overhaul of coordinators has been a non-issue for the majority of this season. That in large part was off set by his upper echelon recruits. Yet, Clemson has maintained their core of coaching with long term coordinators in Tony Elliott and Brent Venables. Although Deshaun Watson is no longer a Tiger, Clemson has the determination and better overall coaching to overcome. Grab Clemson to head back to the National title game.

Road games aren’t supposed to happen in bowl season but that is the case for Wisconsin as they take on the Hurricanes. Some may look at this as a matchup of two teams that were on the doorsteps of the playoffs. Wisconsin’s poor schedule harmed them while Miami’s issues with playing complete games finally caved at season’s end. Even with time off I don’t see the Hurricanes on field issues changing. Grab the Badgers in Miami.

Out of all of the changes amongst college football programs one move remained relatively quiet. Earlier this month the Memphis Tigers and Mike Norvell agreed to a long-term deal to keep him in Memphis. His octane offense is coveted and is one that will be awfully tough for Iowa State to handle. The biggest key in this small number is the durability and explosiveness of Memphis. Grab the Tigers Saturday.

A key injury to Bulldogs quarterback Nick Fitzgerald has skewed Saturday’s bowl line on Louisville’s side. The hype of Lamar Jackson did not wane in 2017 yet the level of Louisville’s play as a team did. Poor defense and less playmakers for Jackson thwarted the teams growth. Look for the Bulldogs SEC defense to keep them in this matchup against the Cardinal. Grab the Bulldogs. 

For the second consecutive season the Sun Belt has been stellar in bowl season. New Mexico State will look to add to the success as they take on Utah State. Yet, the Aggies have one of the worst consistent offenses remaining in bowl season. Unsettling performances down the stretch showcased an offense that lacks the combo running to pass balance. This bodes to Utah State who should outproduce a poor New Mexico State defense. Grab Utah State.

At first review this matchup seemed to be an ASU read. They’ve played above expectations all season and have had Todd Graham’s back throughout the process. Yet this is a poor matchup for the Sun Devils. The youth on the defensive side of the football will be in for a long day against NC State quarterback Ryan Finley. Defensively NC State should be well prepared for ASU’s go to play calls as they’ve seen similar styles from their conference. Grab NC State to spoil Graham’s exit.

Two strong variables are in-line to side with Texas A&M Friday. For one the Aggies no longer have former Coach Kenny Sumlin. Second, the Aggies are traveling to North Carolina the home state of Wake Forest. Yet, the identity of Wake Forest flipped this season from a defensive minded team to an increasing offensive attack. With the layoff of bowl season don’t be surprised for rust to show for Wake Forest. Grab the Aggies.

Thursday’s bowl games are filled with tight lines and little margin of advantages. Yet, I have my eyes on the AM game between Virginia and Navy. In the ACC Virginia showcased an ability to hang in games but not solidify victories, while Navy lacked the defense to contain teams. This should be a matchup dictated by field position and clock management. Look for Navy to control both and too pull out a close victory. Grab Navy.

The Arizona Wildcats were a team the entire country started to back amidst a five game winning and ATS streak. That’s hard to resist in a small bowl game line with an electrifying player such as Tate at quarterback. He’s healthy and the Wildcats have the ability to score 40 plus with him on the field. Yet, defensive game plans have become better against him as the season has gone on. Look for Purdue to employ a solid strategy as well and get the cover.

Iowa’s offensive woes against solid defenses in Big 10 play is a detractor against Boston College. Yet Boston College is a team that may have reaped the benefits of an end of season run. They won five of their last six games against teams that were vulnerable that given week. Look for Iowa to showcase the strength of their 7-5 Big Ten record over BC in the ACC. Grab Iowa. 

Duke was a team that had issues finishing off games. Four of their six losses were by seven points or less. To end the season they were able to correct their errors and roll off two dominant wins against Georgia Tech and Wake Forest. That combined with the MAC’s poor showing with Toledo has created value on Northern Illinois. Grab Northern Illinois to prevail ATS on a key two point move from the original 4.5. 

Sometimes in bowl season certain teams just get the right matchup. It’s bound to happen with over forty bowl games. Toledo against Appalachian State appears to be that matchup. On paper Appalachian State had returning the talent run away with the Sun Belt but struggled with sloppy wins and poor cohesiveness. They did finish the season strong but against shoddy competition. Look for the layoff to hurt Appalachian State and the Sun Belt’s current bowl success to hurt them ATS. Grab Toledo.

High value lies with an Army team that’s poor schedule has produced a solid line against San Diego State. Earlier in the season San Diego State had the attractive wins over teams in the Pac-12 in Arizona State and Stanford. Yet, Army’s ground attack and improved defense should cause problems for a San Diego State offense that’s use to relenting defenses of the Mountain West. Grab Army.

Oddsmakers were not fooled by South Florida’s difficulty to win games throughout the season. Their record of 9-2 may have been in similar territory as Texas Tech’s with stiffer competition. Issues Charlie Strong has had in changing over South Florida should be balanced out with the Bulls extended preparation. Grab South Florida to have an elevated look from their regular season play.

In the ACC championship two one-loss teams will square off in Miami and Clemson. The defending National Champions in Clemson are ranked number one in the country. Meanwhile Miami can put themselves back into the playoff picture after a poor loss to Pittsburgh last week. With so much on the line you can expect Miami to be ready to compete at a high level. A level they haven’t showcased all season even in marquee wins. Look for Clemson’s comfort of knowing they have all but secured a BCS playoff spot to come into play from an ATS standpoint. Grab Miami.

It’s highly unusual to see a skewed point spread with two teams with similar records. Yet, that’s the case Saturday as New Mexico State takes on South Alabama. On initial assessment South Alabama seemed like the proper side. In further assessment oddsmakers have placed proper devaluation on a South Alabama team that’s defense has been impacted by drastic offensive decline. Meanwhile New Mexico State has an upperclassmen laden team that has their minds on a bowl game. A squeak close win last week against an Idaho team playing with a third string quarterback impacted this line. Grab the Aggies.

Perhaps no team has slid further back in the Sun Belt than Lafayette. They’ve tried three different quarterbacks to no success, and are coming off a home loss to Georgia Southern. Appalachian State on the other hand finally showed their defensive and offensive arsenal in a standout win over Georgia State. Still, their quarterback in Taylor Lamb does not have the confidence of seasons past. Defensively look for a step back as well against an under rated Lafayette offense.

Non recognition for an undefeated season can be a deflating prospect. Central Florida’s 11-0 season was not enough to put them in the BCS playoff discussion. That combined with Scott Frost’s name drawing attention for open coaching positions can be a detractor for bettors. Instead, look for Central Florida to continue to show composure as they’ve fought through close victories over Navy, South Florida, and SMU.

Stanford gets a bit of a home field opportunity Friday as they take on USC in Santa Clara. This is a repeat matchup from week two’s 42-24 USC victory.  Since starting the season 1-2, Stanford has won eight of nine.  Stanford’s dominance over Notre Dame may cast an improper cloud as USC was blown out by the Irish. USC has the upper hand in all three phases and confidence over the opponent in Stanford. Grab the Trojans.

It’s not often a six win team will be a double digit favorite to the tune of twenty plus points. In fact the point spread is within the deficits of loss of Oregon State’s last five games. Yet, this is the right spot to grab the Ducks based on their weekly ascension since the return of quarterback Justin Herbert. Don’t look for the Ducks to hold back on either side as they prepare to be bowl ready.

Over the years the ASU defense has had severe issues against dual threat quarterbacks. That will likely continue Saturday against Arizona. A difference to this year’s team than prior Todd Graham Devils teams is their ability to show perseverance. Quarterback Manny Wilkins has showed the maturation to lead this team, and will give the Devils a boosting seventh win on the season.

Both Appalachian State and Georgia State are 5-1 in the Sun Belt conference. An x-factor here ATS is the fact that Georgia State did not play last week. Based on Appalachian State’s road woes this would figure to be a spot to benefit Georgia State.  In fact in all five of Appalachian State’s road games they’ve failed to cover the number. Yet, that was due to improper carry over ATS value of prior seasons. That’s been corrected here and will bode to Appalachian State.

Towards the tail end of the season there is value to be had against fading teams. Virginia has been competitive throughout the season but from a wins standpoint peaked at the onset. They started the season 5-1, before a current stretch of losing four of their last five. The Hokies are the opposite. They’re a team that were ranked far too high at thirteenth three weeks ago in a loss to Miami. That loss took them a few weeks to recover but expect this in-state game to elevate their play. Grab the Hokies.

Perhaps the most inflated team ATS are the Arizona Wildcats. After starting the season 2-2 with Brandon Dawkins, they’ve been a different team with Khalif Tate. Under center he has led a 5-1 surge and made Arizona an ATS juggernaut. Oregon on the other hand is just 2-5 in-conference and coming off a blowout loss to Washington. Yet look for Arizona’s primary reliance on Tate’s legs to give Oregon and defensive minded Coach Willie Taggart an advantage. Grab Oregon.

Here two teams are far below .500 in UMass and BYU. Yet both teams have also grabbed wins as of late. With BYU’s impressive ground game it’ll be tough task to limit for UMass. Still this is a spot where a healthy experienced quarterback should pay dividends ATS. Senior Andrew Ford from UMass will not finish his career in a bowl game and likely will challenge this game as one. Last year the Minute Men suffered a 51-9 loss at BYU and will seek revenge. Grab UMass.

Five straight victories by Northwestern has catapulted them into the top twenty five and put them in position for a much higher than anticipated bowl game. In fact their two losses were to top teams Penn State and Wisconsin. Yet look for Minnesota to support the oddsmaker touchdown value here off their downgraded 2-5 conference record. Grab the Gophers.

Sometimes a non power five conference can hinder a teams true rating. A close week one loss against Nebraska took away some thunder for a 5-2 Arkansas State team. They’ve risen their level of play each week and are a formidable top 30 college football team. While South Alabama has talent in certain positions they’re a team fighting transition at the quarterback position. They have not settled in on utilizing junior quarterback Dallas Davis or junior Cole Garvin.

At 2-7 Texas State may seem like a home dog to ride against a Georgia State team that’s played above their capabilities. 4-1 in conference the Panthers have taken advantage of winning the turnover battle to win close games. Nothing comes easy for the Panthers but they’re getting road favorite value here. Grab Georgia State.

It’s not often you see a top twenty five team fade with three consecutive losses. Yet that’s what has occurred for Navy. All three losses have been by ten points or less. Certainly factored into this point spread is Navy’s attempt to halt their skid as well as SMU’s travel to Maryland. Look for Navy’s inability to close out games to continue to haunt them ATS. Grab SMU.

Over the last several years the SEC has struggled against Sun Belt opponents, including last week’s close call for Arkansas against Coastal Carolina. Saturday UL Lafayette travels to Ole Miss and will utilize their third starting quarterback of the season in Levi Lewis. Lewis a freshman showed flashes of a great future in his first start last week in a win against South Alabama. Assuredly he’ll face a challenge but look for Lafayette to hold within the number.

Again we find value in the Pac-12 based on poor conference play. California’s lone Pac-12 victory came against Washington State in convincing fashion. On the other hand Oregon State has been winless in the conference. Yet consecutive close calls against Colorado and Stanford have flipped their ATS value. With California coming off a dreadful performance against Colorado look for the value here on Cal.

Push aside South Alabama’s victory over Troy and there is not much to be showcased for their season. Saturday they’ll host a Louisiana Lafayette team that has struggled mightily against higher grade offenses. Look for Lafayette to attack South Alabama’s defense and play much sharper than their last performance that featured a 47-3 loss to Arkansas State.

It has not been Georgia Southern’s season. At 0-7 it goes without saying that they’ve been a major failure on the football field. That goes with ATS support as well as they’ve been blown out recently against UMass and last week against Troy. Yet, this is a home spot where they can play within the number against a Georgia State team that’s inflated from their 3-1 conference record.

An unusual dual quarterback system is working for Boise State. Utilizing their system has caught teams off balance and allowed Boise State to regroup after a demoralizing loss to Virginia. With Utah State coming off a blowout win over UNLV one may side with the home dog here. Instead grab the value on Boise State.