10* Western Kentucky (12:00 ET): With a 60-6 thrashing of Marshall last week (on the road!), WKU guaranteed itself a second consecutive appearance in the C-USA Title Game. Even better, because Louisiana Tech lost last week (39-24 as 15.5-pt road favorites), the Hilltoppers will play host for a second straight year as they look to make it B2B titles (they beat Southern Miss 45-28 as 8-pt favorites in LY's C-USA Title Game). This is a revenge spot for WKU, as they lost down in Ruston earlier this year, 55-52 as 3-pt favorites, a game they trailed by as many as 25 at one point. A furious rally fell short back in early October, but I believe there will be no need for a comeback effort here as the home team is 3-0 SU all-time as C-USA rivals and I look for the Hilltoppers to roll. Home teams have won the L4 C-USA Title games and 8 of 11 all-time. Lay the points. 

The regular season meeting was a Thursday night game. Like I said earlier, playing on the road, WKU fell into an early hole. That's odd considering the Hilltoppers have outscored opponents by 202 pts in the first half this year, the third largest margin in the FBS. They allowed 35 1H points in Ruston and trailed 49-24 midway through the fourth quarter. Though by no means a defensive stalwart, the number of points allowed in the 1st Half vs. La Tech was more than they allowed in all but two other games. One was vs. Alabama! Besides 'Bama and La Tech, the Hilltoppers only other loss was by 1 pt at Vanderbilt. Obviously, it goes w/o saying that this is an outstanding offensive team, one that is tied for 5th in points per game nationally (w/ LA Tech!) at 44 PPG. They are third in TD drives of three plays or less (21), tied w/ Louisville.

Though they didn't show it in the regular season meeting, WKU really has a significant edge defensively here. They allow just 22.4 PPG overall and 16.7 PPG here in Bowling Green. Meanwhile, La Tech allows 30.6 PPG overall and 33.3 PPG on the road. It was a crushing loss LW in Hattiesburg for the Bulldogs as they were outgained 426-254 (-10 in first downs) by a 5-6 Southern Miss team. Since losing to LA Tech, WKU has won six in a row, the last five all by 28 pts or greater. They've won those L5 games by a combined score of 265-61! This spread should be closer to two touchdowns. 10* Western Kentucky

8* Over Ohio/Western Michigan (7:00 ET): For the first time in six seasons, Northern Illinois will NOT represent the MAC West in the Conference's Championship Game. That distinction instead belongs to Western Michigan, who is unbeaten and a monster favorite to win tonight against Frank Solich's Ohio University Bobcats. A case can be made that the favored Broncos are among the strongest MAC teams ever fielded. They have outscored their conference bretheren by almost 27 points per game and just became the first MAC team to beat Toledo by at least three scores since 2010. Only one time this year has WMU NOT won a game by at last 14 pts. So the price range is justified here, though Ohio is 7-1 ATS its last eight times as a dog and will certainly be playing w/ "house money" at Ford Field. Therefore, I'm turning to the total instead.

Ohio has lost four games this season, three by a TD or less and the other by nine at Tennessee. So they don't get blown out very often. But the one loss I want to focus in on to start the discussion is what happened in the first game of the season. In Athens, the Bobcats lost 56-54 to Texas State, the worst team in the entire country, in triple overtime. It was a game they led by 10 in the fourth quarter and by three w/ less than a minute to go in regulation. The game obviously went Over the total. But since then, NO Ohio game has managed to go Over the total! They are the top Under team in the nation at 10-1-1. But the defense figures to be challenged here like no other game this season. Case in point, the Over has cashed each of the L4 times these teams have met w/ WMU topping 40 each of the last three.

Obviously, for this game to go Over, Western Michigan will have to do most of the "heavy lifting." Fortunately, they come in averaging a healthy 44.7 points per game. They've topped 40 in seven of the last nine games overall. Even in one of the two they did not (vs. Buffalo), they still scored 38 and put up over 600 yds total offense. Ohio's defensive numbers have been built up at the expense of some of the MAC's more anemic offenses. Against Toledo, they allowed 560 yards. With WMU poised for 40+, we likely only need two TD's from Ohio, which is certainly "doable." Remember that this game is also being contested indoors on the fast track at Ford Field. 8* Over Ohio/Western Michigan

10* UMass (11:59 ET): This is the classic overlay w/ a team trying to become bowl eligible. Hawaii is 5-6 SU and needs a win here to get to the postseason. I really respect what 1st year HC Nick Rolovich has done out on the Island, but the Warriors have failed to cover their last four games, a stretch that has seen them win SU just one time - last week by 1 (14-13) at Fresno State. So the idea of them being asked this much weight, even given the circumstance, doesn't seem right. Admittedly, UMass has not looked good of late and is a 2-9 team. But the players should treat this trip as "their bowl game" and I'll take the points.

One of UMass' two wins came against FCS Wagner. That was their only home game in the final five weeks of the season. Trips to Tulsa and BYU the L2 weeks have predictably gone poorly, but those are good teams. The Minutemen also have the distinction of playing South Carolina tough earlier this year, in Columbia, as they lost that game by only six points. Going from being a MAC team to an Independent probably was not a wise decision for this program (losing out on that Western Michigan money!) and having 10 starters back essentially ensured this would be a rebuilding year for HC Mark Whipple. But his offense has averaged nearly 6.1 yards per play the L3 weeks and I think will be able to move the ball against a Hawaii defense that gives up yards in bunches (6.3 YPP).

Hawaii is still getting accustomed to the role of favorite. Last year, they went 0-4 ATS laying points and lost two of the games outright. This year, they are 0-3 ATS in that role after last week's non-cover. So that's 0-7 ATS as chalk the L2 years with four outright losses. This year, they lost outright to both UNLV and New Mexico. This is just the third time laying a TD or more against a FBS foe the L2 years. While the Warriors have won four straight home finales, three of them have been by seven points or less. Last year, they were outgained by their three non-conference visitors despite a 3-0 SU record. Over the L3 games, they are being outgained by roughly 150 YPG. Maybe Hawaii wins here, but if they do, it won't be by much.  10* UMass

10* Florida State (8:00 ET): The annual rivalry matchup w/ Florida State has become something of a burden for Florida the L2 years. Just like in 2015, they have the SEC Championship Game (vs. Alabama) on deck. Making matters even more difficult for the Gators this year is that they just played LSU last week, a game that had to be rescheduled (Hurricane Matthew) from October 8th. Jim McElwain's team was supposed to be coming off a tune-up vs. Presbyterian, but instead is left to dust itself off after winning a game 16-10 as 13.5-point dogs despite gaining roughly one-third of their total yardage (280 yards) on one play (lone TD). Florida State won this game last year, 27-2 in Gainesville, and should roll again. Lay the points.

Florida's lone TD last week was a 98-yard pass in the third quarter. Other than that, they gained just 172 total yards from scrimmage while giving up 423. It was a goal line stand to close the game that preserved the victory after the Gators had kicked a pair of field goals in the final five minutes. Over its last games, UF is averaging only 15.3 points per game. These offensive woes are nothing new as LY they gained only 262 yds vs. FSU and were held out of the end zone entirely. That was the fourth time in the last six years that they were held to seven points or less by the Seminoles. Not surprisingly, Florida is 1-5 SU the past six years in this rivalry game. It will be Austin Appleby starting at QB tonight and I don't see him doing much.

FSU was largely "written off" following the ugly, early season loss to Louisville. Last second losses to both North Carolina and Clemson will probably keep them out of a "New Year's Day bowl game," but this still remains one of the best teams in the country, at least in my opinion. They put up over 650 yards LW at Syracuse and the final score would have been even uglier than 45-14 were it not for four turnovers. The Seminoles seniors being honored here will be highly motivated by the chance to wrap up their careers at 8-0 vs. Miami and Florida. Meanwhile, Noles HC Jimbo Fisher no longer has to deal w/ LSU rumors. Florida, by the way, is still dealing w/ a number of injuries  - on both sides of the ball. FSU should win this one by double digits. 10* Florida State

10* Clemson (7:30 ET): Clemson finished last year's regular season unbeaten and ranked #1 in the entire country. While they won't finish w/ either of those distinctions in 2016, the path to a second straight playoff appearance remains clear. They'll be a double digit fave in their next two games, this and the ACC Championship. All they need to do is win both and they'll finish in the top four. While there may be no incentive to beat down rival South Carolina here, I nevertheless think they will. How do the lowly Gamecocks keep pace here? Clemson averages 38.5 points per game, South Carolina averages only 20.4 PPG, a number which drops to an unsightly 11.0 on the road. The public is making a huge mistake by throwing its support behind the underdog here. I will lay the points.

For much of the last decade, this Palmetto State rivalry had gone South Carolina's way. But the tide has certainly turned with Dabo Swinney taking Clemson to new heights. The Tigers have won each of the L2 years, including a 35-17 beatdown the last time here in Death Valley. That marked the Gamecocks' largest loss to Clemson since '04. Last year, in Columbia, it was a much closer game w/ the Tigers winning only 37-32 as 20-point chalk. The situation was similar to tonight as Clemson knew it had the ACC Title Game on deck. But, a year wiser and now accustomed to the role of the "hunted," I think they'll fare better. Plus, they are at home. Yes, Pitt beat them here two weeks ago, but that experience should have them highly motivated today as they honor the Seniors.

After having the "bubble burst," I was impressed that Clemson still rolled last week, beating Wake Forest 35-13. They outgained the Demon Deacons 456-197 and while they did not cover, note it was a 28-0 game early in the second quarter. I'm not too worried about the Tigers taking the "foot off the gas" here, however. By the way, this is just the second road game for South Carolina since September 24th! The last one was two weeks ago as they lost 20-7 at Florida. Their most points scored in any of the four road games this year is 14. Clemson has scored 35 or more points in seven of its last nine games. 10* Clemson

8* Miami FL (3:30 ET): I know there's an outside shot Duke can still get to a bowl w/ a win, but I can't see them being too interested in this season ending trip to Coral Gables. The Blue Devils hopes of becoming bowl eligible were essentially dashed last week w/ a horrible 56-14 loss at Pittsburgh. That was a Pitt team primed for a letdown (were off upset of Clemson) no less. But they instead destroyed Duke w/ a 461-268 edge in total yds. It had been four straight seasons ending in a postseason trip under David Cutcliffe, so 2016 certainly represents a step back in Durham. Furthermore, other than a season-opening win over FCS NC Central, the Blue Devils other three wins have all been by seven points or less. They're really only a few plays away from an 11-game losing streak.

Miami opened the year 4-0, only to lose the next four games. But they've since put together a three-game win streak w/ every win coming by double digits. That includes one over Pitt, 51-28. After whipping UVA 34-14 in Charlottesville, "The U" won 27-13 at NC State, a game they never trailed and outgained the Wolfpack 415-329. I'm sure they'd now love nothing more than to head into the bowl game riding a healthy four-game win streak. QB Brad Kaaya comes in just 146 yds shy of his third straight 3,000 yard season, something no other Miami signal caller has ever done. Also, he's just 275 yards shy of Ken Dorsey's all-time school record. I wouldn't worry too much about this pointspread as the 'Canes are 4-1 ATS the L3 seasons as a home favorite of 10.5 to 21 pts.

Of course, the big talking point here will be LY's controversial finish where an eight-lateral play that shouldn't have counted won it for Miami, 30-27 as 12-pt underdogs. Obviously, as you can tell by the shift in pointspread, much has changed in one year's time. But that has as much to do w/ the fact Duke is just 6-11 SU since that loss. Miami is allowing just 16.2 PPG at home this season. Meanwhile, Duke is allowing 35.6 PPG on the road. I'm calling for a blowout here as Mark Richt's team rolls on to the postseason. 8* Miami FL

8* Notre Dame (3:30 ET): I do believe that the expectation here is that Notre Dame, no longer bowl eligible, is going to be blown out by one of the hottest teams in the entire country. Because of that, we can take advantage of what I feel is an inflated spread. Consider that over the summer, this line was only USC -5. Obviously, the Fighting Irish are no longer worthy of that level of respect from the marketplace. But, despite perceptions, Brian Kelly's team has been more unlucky than bad in 2016. Every loss has been by eight points or less, four by three or less. So, I don't see any reason to expect them to be blown out for the first time now. USC has won seven in a row overall, covering in the last five wins, but after wrapping up the Pac 12 slate w/ an upset of previously unbeaten Washington and blowout of rival UCLA, I don't think they'll be gunning for the blowout either. Take the points.

USC still can get to the Pac 12 Title Game, but only if Colorado loses at home to Utah Saturday night. That game takes place after this one is over and the reality is that USC's result has no bearing on next week's fate. It's not as if this team can make it to the College Football Playoff either; a 1-3 start all but guaranteed that. It should be noted that the Trojans' two wins by 14 pts or less during this streak of theirs came against Colorado and Washington, the only two decent foes they faced. I'm not saying Notre Dame is anywhere near that level, but this is more points than USC had to lay against either Utah State or Oregon. In fact, the only bigger spread they've faced was vs. Cal.

The buzzards might be circling in South Bend w/ rumors of HC Brian Kelly's demise and the program forced to vacate wins due to an academic cheating scandal. But there's still plenty of talent on hand here, notably QB DeShone Kizer. This offense also ran for 200+ yds last week (now done so in B2B games) and led a good Virginia Tech team by 17 pts on two different occasions. They wound up losing 34-31, despite a slight edge in total yards. There are simply too many brutal losses to go through here, so many so, that an upset here could not erase them. But the bottom line is I expect the Irish to keep this one closer than expected. 8* Notre Dame

8* Ole Miss (3:30 ET): Much of the luster has been lost in this year's Egg Bowl as both Mississippi and Mississippi State check in w/ losing records. While I'm sure the 4-7 Bulldogs would love to cost the Rebels' bowl eligibility, that's just not the way I see things playing out here. The home team is 14-3 SU the L17 installments of this rivalry and that includes B2B wins as the lower ranked team in Oxford for Ole Miss. Last year, it was 38-27 Rebels in Starkville as one-point favorites. Last week, it was a struggle offensively (on the road) against a good defensive team in Vandy. This week, I see the Rebels' offense rolling en route to a DD win. Lay the points.

Though not even bowl eligible, I still believe Ole Miss to be among the top 30 teams in the country. Coming off a 10-win season and having beaten Alabama B2B years, expectations were high for Huge Freeze coming into 2016. I faded them in the opener vs. Florida State, a game they led big early. They also came as close as anyone to beating Bama. A three-game gauntlet of Arkansas, LSU and Auburn derailed them, but last week was the head-scratcher as they got dominated by Vandy, 38-17 as 9.5-point favorites. Don't think for a second that these Ole Miss seniors won't be looking to atone for that performance on a day they will be honored.

Mississippi State was also upset last week; albeit only as a one-point fave against Arkansas. Still, they gave up 58 points at home and that's not a good sign here. It was the second straight week the defense allowed 51+ and fourth time in the last five games they allowed at least 40 or more. So you can see why I think the Bulldogs defense is likely to be torched Saturday afternoon. Both Alabama and Arkansas were able to go for 600+ yards on them. While 2-5 in SEC play, Ole Miss is basically even in terms of total yardage. Mississippi State is being outgained by about 70 YPG in league play. So there's a definite reason that the Rebels are decided favorites here. Again, they need to win to become bowl eligible, so that and the chance to beat up on their rival, should be all the motivation they need. 8* Ole Miss