8* LSU (9:00 ET): Auburn has already lost once as an underdog this season. That loss came at Penn State by a score of 28-20 two weeks ago. The Tigers probably should have also lost last week to Georgia State at Jordan-Hare, but a QB change in the second half propelled them to a 34-24 come from behind victory. That was a misleading final though as the Tigers got two non-offensive TDs in the second half, one a pick six in the final 30 seconds which came right after a 98-yard drive and the go-ahead score. Now they head to a place where they haven’t won in two decades. They’ve dropped 10 straight in Death Valley.

With TJ Finley leading the comeback last week, he’s likely to at least split time with Bo Nix this week. Whomever is playing QB for Auburn must deal with a defense that leads the country with 20 sacks. It’s an interesting storyline with Finley having left LSU to play for Auburn. But this could quickly turn into a case of “don’t know what you got until it’s gone.” First year coach Bryan Harsin is dealing with a lot of issues right now as he just fired his WR coach. Throw in what figures to be a rowdy, late Saturday night crowd in Baton Rouge and this just looks like a really tough spot for the road team.

Back in the opener, I faded LSU as they were playing at a UCLA team that already had a game under its belt. That turned out to be the correct move. But since then, these Tigers have really turned things around with three straight impressive wins, including at Mississippi State last week. While the final margin ended up being just three points, the Bayou Bengals were up by 18 in the 4Q. They don’t have any issues at QB as Max Johnson’s 15 TD passes are second most in the country. This is a big revenge spot for LSU after losing 48-11 LY in Jordan Hare. They are a much better team in 2021. Lay the points. 8* LSU

10* Old Dominion (9:00 ET): ODU may seem like an odd team to go “all in” on this week, but the Monarchs are off a very misleading 35-34 home loss to Buffalo last week and I look for them to bounce back. They outgained the Bulls 433-297 LW in Norfolk, but it didn’t matter as they were behind 35-7 at halftime thanks to two non-offensive scores. They outscored UB 27-0 in the second half but then in the cruelest of fates missed the potential game-tying XP with just 19 seconds left. At least they covered as 13-point underdogs. I’m taking the points this week. 

It’s not just last week’s misleading final that has led me to ODU this week. How about UTEP being favored? Now the Miners did cover as 9.5-point road chalk in Week 1, but that was against the worst FBS team in the country, New Mexico State (yes, even worse than UConn). UTEP is now 3-1 SU after upsetting New Mexico 20-13 last week here in El Paso. The Miners also pitched a 2H shutout, outscoring the Lobos 17-0 to erase what was a 13-3 halftime deficit. UTEP now has the same number of wins over FBS teams this year (2) as they did the previous FOUR SEASONS COMBINED! 

This is a matchup of the two teams predicted to finish last in the respective C-USA divisions. ODU does not have a win over FBS team since 2018 as they were one of three teams that elected to skip the 2020 season. This is their best shot at one since a one-point loss to UTSA late in the ‘19 season. The UTEP defense is allowing only a 19% conversion rate on third down, which is a totally unsustainable number, so look for some big plays out of the ODU run game (two backs averaging 6.0 YPC) and the dog to leave with the cash. 10* Old Dominion

9* Central Florida (3:30 ET): The Golden Knights have had two weeks to stew over a 42-35 loss to Louisville, a game that was decided on a 66-yard “pick-six” in the closing seconds. I look for them to come out and hammer a Navy team that is rather “lost at sea” at this point. The Midshipmen are 0-3 and while they looked somewhat better in last week’s 28-20 loss at Houston, this simply is not the same kind of team we’re used to seeing under HC Ken Niumatalolo. Lay the points with the rested visitor. 

Central Florida’s season began by hosting Boise State. Though they actually fell behind 21-0 early in that game, they absolutely deserved to come from behind and win 36-31 as they statistically dominated the Broncos in that one. It was a 573-283 edge in total yards and would have been a blowout had it not been for an early 100 yard INT return for TD by Boise. UCF then crushed FCS Bethune-Cookman as you’d expect, putting up 63 points for 1st year HC Gus Malzahn. The loss two weeks ago doesn’t at all dim my view that this is the top challenger to Cincinnati in the AAC this year. 

Meanwhile, Navy now finds itself towards the bottom of the conference. They could put up only 10 combined points in the first two games and an embarrassing 68 total yards in a 23-3 home loss to Air Force. The Middies did lead at the half LW, but are now facing an opponent that has easily won the two previous matchups. The extra week to prepare for the Navy triple option is huge for the UCF defense. Even with a backup QB making his first career start, the Golden Knights should roll in this one. 9* Central Florida

9* Eastern Michigan (2:30 ET): Chris Creighton, now in his eighth year at EMU, has done a great job at turning around this once-sorry program. He is now gunning for his second 4-1 SU start in six years. Prior to his arrival in Ypsilanti, the Eagles had started 4-1 just twice in 28 years! Their only loss here in 2021 came to a Wisconsin team that I still think is much better than its record. All three wins have come against bad teams, but at least they’ve been blowouts; all three coming by 14 points or greater. 

A clear sign of the turnaround engineered here by Creighton is the fact his team has beaten Northern Illinois each of the last two seasons. Prior to those two wins, EMU had lost 11 straight to NIU and 19 of 21. They will now be going for their first three-game win streak in the series since 1958! Conversely, Northern Illinois has had just three losing seasons in 13 years, but two of those were 2019 and 2020. The Huskies didn’t even win a game LY (0-6) and that included a 41-33 loss as six-point road underdog to EMU. The year before saw the Eagles come here to DeKalb and win 45-17 as five-point dogs. 

Northern Illinois may be off to a 2-2 start this year, but the defense has surrendered 50+ points in both losses and one of the wins (22-21 upset over Ga Tech in the opener) was very misleading. They were outgained in that victory, then were very lucky to earn a push here at home vs. Wyoming the following week as they were down by as many as 26 in that game. After getting crushed 63-10 by Michigan, the Huskies did win last week, but that was against FCS Maine. EMU is 23-8 ATS L31 road games, including 20-6-1 as a dog. 9* Eastern Michigan

8* Wisconsin (12:00 ET): So we’ve got Michigan, 4-0 SU and ranked #14 in the country, GETTING points from unranked 1-2 Wisconsin. Now the game is in Madison (more on that later), but this line probably is surprising to some. Not to me. Michigan was outgained 352-275 last week by Rutgers and did next to nothing offensively in the second half. Meanwhile, Wisconsin is off a very misleading 41-13 loss to Notre Dame last week where they actually OUTGAINED the Irish. Believe it or not, we’re getting a GREAT value here on the Badgers at home. Lay the points. 

This is precisely the kind of game Jim Harbaugh always seems to lose. He is 0-11 SU as underdog since returning to his alma mater. Since 2015, Michigan is the ONLY team in the FBS not to have a single outright win as a dog. Madison has also been a “house of horrors” for past Wolverines teams. They have not won here since 2001, dropping five in a row including four straight by double digits. Michigan’s inability to run the ball last week in the 2H vs. Rutgers, or even convert a single third down, seems like it will be a major issue here as they face the nation’s top rush defense. Wisconsin has allowed only 69 rushing yards total in three games! 

Then there’s this tidbit: There have been nine unranked teams favored vs. a top-15 opponent since 2016. Seven of the nine won, including WVU (who I had) over Va Tech two weeks ago. This shapes up to be a CLASSIC anti-public bet. The respective turnover differentials of the two teams, Wisconsin is -7 while Michigan has yet to turn it over even once, is bound to even out. The Badgers had THREE non-offensive TD’s go against them in the 4Q LW at Soldier Field. Look for it to be their defense making the big plays this week as they win at home. 8* Wisconsin

10* Over Virginia/Miami FL (7:30 ET): Miami was ranked #14 in the preseason, but “The U” has failed to impress so far. Their only wins have come against Appalachian State (by two) and FCS Central Connecticut State. Blowout losses to Alabama and Michigan State dropped the ‘Canes out of the rankings entirely and now they are playing without QB D’Eriq King. But I do think they’re going to be able to put a substantial number of points on the board this week. They scored 69 last week without King and now face a defense that’s given up 96 points the last two games. 

Virginia’s offense has put up over 1,000 yards in the last two games, but that hasn’t been enough as the woeful defense surrendered 1,173 yards and they lost both games by 20 points! North Carolina blitzed them for 59 points and almost 700 yards. The Cavaliers outgained Wake Forest last Thursday, but that didn’t matter in a 37-17 loss. The defense let the Demon Deacons score on each of its first seven possessions! Again, no matter who is in at QB tonight for Miami, they are going to be able to move the ball and score. 

But Virginia can obviously move the ball as well. QB Brennan Armstrong has already twice set a career-high in passing yardage this season. In fact, he set a school record with 554 yards vs. UNC. This is the nation’s top passing offense (430.5 YPG) and Armstrong also leads his team in rushing (552 yards in four games). Look for the Hoos to score far more than they did LW vs. Wake when they had four 30+ yard drives end with no points (two went 67+ yds). Both defenses have given up 37+ points twice, so I'm surprised both teams are 3-1 Under. This has “shootout” written all over it. 10* Over Virginia/Miami FL

10* Florida Atlantic (8:00 ET): I’m a bit stunned at this line as my power ratings say Florida Atlantic should be favored. So there’s no question I’m taking the points here. The line is even more enticing when you consider that the Owls are also on a 6-2 ATS run as underdogs and will be facing a defense that just gave up 628 total yards (and 49 points) last week. After starting 5-1 SU in Willie Taggart’s first season here in Boca Raton, FAU hit a bit of a snag, losing its final three games last year (including the bowl) and to Florida in the 2021 season opener (understandable). But off B2B convincing wins, they look to have turned a corner. 

Air Force is also 2-1, but just lost outright as nine-point favorites to Utah State last week. It was a 49-45 shootout that saw the Falcons run the ball better than they did in either of the first two games (437 yards) but the defensive “effort” simply wasn’t there. Of the 628 total yards allowed, 448 were through the air. Now they’ve got to deal with FAU QB N’Kosi Perry, who comes in averaging 290.3 YPG with seven touchdowns and zero interceptions. These teams have met once before (2018) and FAU gained 525 yards in a 33-28 win. All signs point to another big offensive effort, so again - why WOULDN’T you take the points? 

FAU had seven games either cancelled or postponed because of COVID-19 last year. On the bright side, 30 of the 34 players who started a game last season returned for Taggart, who finally was able to get some Spring practices in. So this is a very experienced group set to hit the road, much more experienced than Air Force. FAU did cover against Florida and would have covered in ‘18 vs. Air Force if not for a blocked punt in the final minute. Seeing as how Air Force twice blew an 11-point lead last week (including in the 4Q), I don’t see how anyone can expect them to win by any real margin. 10* Florida Atlantic

9* South Carolina (7:00 ET): This is yet another matchup on the Saturday card where I feel the wrong team is favored. Kentucky is 3-0 SU (1st time since ‘18) but South Carolina is the more important (in our world) 3-0 ATS. The Gamecocks have lost a game, last week, but that was to a Georgia team that could be the best in the country right now. Two of UK’s wins have been close, including last week’s over FCS UT-Chattanooga, and all of them were in Lexington.The Wildcats only won by five (28-23) last week and didn’t even score enough points to cover the massive 31-point spread. Take the points here. 

Not much is being expected from South Carolina in Shane Beamer’s first year at the helm. The team was 2-8 SU in 2020. But Beamer (Frank’s son) didn’t inherit a bare cupboard. Opening with confidence-building victories over Eastern Illinois and East Carolina, the latter on the road, were huge even though the Georgia game didn’t work out last week. The Gamecocks still covered vs. Georgia to move to 3-0 ATS on the year. This is maybe Beamer’s best shot at a SEC win this season, so expect a solid performance. Luke Doty, who was originally going to be the team’s first string QB before injuring his foot over the summer, is back and now ready to make his first start. So that’s another boost. 

While this season is Beamer’s first foray into SEC football as a head coach, his players know the opponent well and desperately want to beat them. The Gamecocks are just 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS the L8 years vs. Kentucky and the current senior class would have just one win against them, the last time they hosted back in 2019. That was a 24-7 win and cover as 3.5-point favorites. This Wildcats’ offense has turned the ball over far too much this season (eight times) and the defense is letting opponents convert at 45% on third down. South Carolina isn’t as bad as many in the SEC think and I give them a great shot at the outright upset here. 9* South Carolina

9* UCLA (6:00 ET): The bloom is off the Rose (Bowl) so to speak as UCLA lost for the first time last week, a 40-37 shootout with Fresno State. But one upset loss should not cause you to disregard what this team has been doing in Chip Kelly’s third season in Westwood. The Bruins got as high as #13 in rankings, mostly on the strength of their 38-27 upset of LSU. I took them in that game and in the opener when they absolutely crushed Hawaii 44-10. I really like the improvement I’ve seen thus far out of Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who currently leads all Pac 12 QB’s with seven touchdown passes. 

Meanwhile, I also won with Stanford last week as they went to Vanderbilt and won 41-23 as 12.5-point favorites. That was a nice follow-up for them after their shocking upset of Southern Cal the week prior, 42-28 as 17-point dogs (which led to USC firing Clay Helton). The change at QB to Tanner McKee, following a season-opening loss to Kansas State, seems to have been a game-changer. But you should note that the Cardinal were outgained by the Trojans in that upset win and then allowed nearly 400 yards to a not good Vandy team last week. They aren’t playing Vandy again this week. 

This will be Stanford’s 1st game in Palo Alto since Week 2 of last season. It’s not like they have some great homefield advantage though. They are just 1-5 ATS L6 home games. This is a massive revenge spot for UCLA, who is just 1-12 SU and 2-13 ATS the L15 meetings with the Cardinal. But the one win was the last time they came to Stanford Stadium, 34-16 as a four-point dog. It was a 49-48 loss LY in 2OT as Thompson-Robinson got hurt. If not for a last-second UCLA loss last week, you have to think this line would be a lot higher. In a battle of teams I’m a combined 3-0 ATS with this season, I’ll lay the points. 9* UCLA

8* Boise State (12:00 ET): It says a lot that a 1-2 team would be favored over a 3-0 team. Especially when the 1-2 team is a nine-point favorite on the road! Boise State’s two losses so far have been by a total of six points and were to UCF and Oklahoma State, two very competent programs. Meanwhile, Utah State has had to rally from a double digit deficit in all three games. Their two wins over FBS teams (Washington State, Air Force) were by a combined seven points and in each instance the Aggies battled back from a double digit 4Q deficit. So they very well could also be 1-2 heading into the Mountain West opener against a team they have struggled with in the past. 

Actually, to say USU has “struggled” in the past vs. Boise State would be putting it mildly. The Aggies are 1-17 SU/4-14 ATS the previous 18 head to head meetings. The lone SU victory took place here in Logan back in 2015. Utah State has not fared well in conference openers recently, going 0-4-1 ATS. I am shocked that they’ve opened this season 3-0 SU (1st time since ‘78) considering they won just one game a year ago and averaged only 15.5 PPG. They only led for the final 3:54 against Air Force last week and that was after trailing most of the way at Wazzu.

Boise State, like Utah State, has a first year coach leading the ship. The Broncos blew a 21-0 lead in the opener vs. UCF and then a 13-point lead vs. Oklahoma State. Really, you could make the case that Boise is the team that “should” be 3-0 while USU “should” be 1-2. It was 42-13 on the blue turf when these teams met last year and eight of the last nine wins in the series have been by double digits. The Utah State defense is very questionable right now as it has given up over 1,000 yards the last two weeks. Air Force gained 437 on the ground alone and even FCS North Dakota went for 442 total. Considering the history of this rivalry - and the fact USU has been down by DD in every game so far - I’ll gladly lay the points. 8* Boise State

8* Boston College (12:00 ET): In its first game w/o starting QB Phil Jurkovic (could be out the rest of the season), Boston College put up 28 points last week even with backup Denis Grosel completing only 5 of 13 passes for 34 yards. The running game - which saw three different backs find the endzone - was ultra-effective in going for 187 yards on 35 carries. Of course, it also helps to have a defense which is sixth nationally, allowing only 10.3 PPG. It’s because of that defense and this game being in Chestnut Hill that I feel we have a “false favorite” on our hands with Missouri. Take the points in this one. 

Boston College is looking to complete the non-conference portion of its schedule a perfect 4-0 straight up. It’s not been a challenging schedule to this point as the team has been favored by double digits in every game and twice by 40 or more. But the program has a solid reputation as an underdog, pulling 13 outright upsets the last five seasons and going 5-1 ATS its last six times in the role. But that’s only half the equation here. You’ve also got the fact that Missouri has been a lousy road team through the years, going 7-21 ATS L28 outside of Columbia. That includes 1-6 when laying points, which they are here. The Tigers are 0-3 ATS overall in 2021 including a 35-28 outright loss as a dog at Kentucky (7th straight year losing the SEC opener). 

The Eagles have a massive edge on the defensive side of the ball in this game. While they’ve allowed just 31 points in three games (28 of those against UMass), Mizzou’s defense is last among SEC teams in giving up 455.7 YPG. A lot of that has to do with the loss to UK, however the Tigers did give up nearly 300 yards rushing to SE Missouri State, a FCS school. When Grosel filled-in against UMass, he completed 11 of 14 passes for 199 yards. So look for him to put up better numbers than last week. I agree with my power ratings that BC should be favored. 8* Boston College

10* Virginia (7:00 ET): The Hoos are off their first loss of the season, 59-39 to a North Carolina team that is still well regarded despite its season opening loss (at Va Tech). The good news for UVA is that they are NOT playing UNC this week. It’s a matchup with Wake Forest instead. The Demon Deacons may come in undefeated (3-0 SU) and 6-0 ATS the L6 meetings but it’s not easy to win in Charlottesville where the home team is 19-2 SU since the start of the ‘18 season. The Cavaliers have covered five straight as home favorites and I think they’ll make it six in a row Friday night on ESPN2. Lay the points.

Wake Forest is just 2-7-1 ATS its L10 road games and this will be their first time leaving Winston-Salem this season. It’s not exactly been an impressive run of opponents they’ve faced to this point, beating William & Mary (FCS), Old Dominion and Florida State. That trio has a combined zero wins over FBS teams in 2021. The Demon Deacons were outgained by 55 YPG in ACC play last season and really benefited from SIX Florida State turnovers last week. It’s never good to lose 59-39 (like Virginia did last week). But at least they got to face an elite offense. WF has yet to face a good offense, let alone one on par with Virginia. 

The Cavaliers put up 574 yards of total offense last week, which would normally  lead me to ask “can they possibly match that?” But in their case, they’ve averaged 558.3 YPG through three weeks and been very consistent in doing so. QB Brennan Armstrong is #2 in the country in passing yards right now. The last time Virginia played at home, they crushed Illinois 42-14 as 10.5-point chalk. This is a big-time revenge game considering they’ve lost four straight times to Wake (1st time ever) and were favored in three of those games. No upset this time. 10* Virginia

10* Under Marshall/Appalachian State (7:30 ET): Marshall was carried by its defense last season as that unit led the country in scoring (13.0 PPG allowed) and at stopping the run (96 YPG). That got them to the C-USA Title Game, but a three-game losing streak at the end of the season cost former HC Doc Holliday his job. I thought the coaching change was a bit shocking, but there’s no denying that they’ve seen offensive improvement in Huntington under Charles Huff. Through three games, the Thundering Herd is averaging 43.7 PPG! How ironic then that the defense let them down last week in a 42-38 loss to East Carolina! 

Appalachian State lost its place as the standard-bearer of the Sun Belt last season, finishing second to Coastal Carolina in the East Division. When they faced the Chanticleers, the Mountaineers led most of the way but ended up losing 34-23 in Conway. Their only other two losses were to Louisiana and … Marshall! The loss to Marshall took place in Huntington and saw ASU get held to a season low of 7 points. This year, ASU is off to a 2-1 start including a win over the same East Carolina team that just beat Marshall. Following a 25-23 loss to Miami, the Mountaineers bounced back with a 44-10 thrashing of FCS Elon last week. 

I don't think this game will be as low-scoring as last season, but I still like the Under. Last week’s performance by the Marshall defense was an aberration. The team led 38-21 going into the 4Q only to be outscored 21-0 the rest of the way. East Carolina games almost always end up being high-scoring. Appalachian State will be the best defense that the Thundering Herd have faced thus far. The Mountaineers have yet to allow more than 25 points in any game. Of the six games these teams have played, only one (Marshall-ECU) saw more than 56 total pts scored. 10* Under Marshall/Appalachian State

8* Tulane (8:00 ET): This is Tulane’s second game against a ranked opponent this year. The first, while not a SU win, was certainly a “moral victory” of sorts. It was an ATS victory as well as they stayed  within a monster 31-point number against top five Oklahoma. Now we’ve seen many teams stay within generous numbers such as that one. But in this instance, the Green Wave only lost the game by five points (40-35). So what I’m saying here is they will not be intimidated when they pay a visit to Oxford this Saturday night to take on #16 Ole Miss. Last week saw Tulane win 69-20 over FCS Morgan State. 

Ole Miss’ season got off to a rousing start with a Labor Day beatdown of Louisville, 43-24 as nine-point favorites. That was without HC Lane Kiffin, who was in COVID protocol. If you recall, I went with the Under and despite the high score, that particular bet did cash. As impressive as the Rebels’ offense has been so far (they also hung 54 on Austin Peay last week), a lot of the focus has been on an improved defense. But realize that “improvement” has taken them from 126th in the FBS (which was next to last) in yards allowed last season to 73rd this season. This Ole Miss defense is about to receive its stiffest test yet from a Tulane offense that can match the firepower they’ve got here in Oxford 

Ole Miss QB Matt Corral is one of the top signal callers in the country, but so too is Tulane’s Michael Pratt. The Green Wave have scored 104 points in two games and what makes the performance against OU all the more impressive is that they had to deal with the game being moved to Norman due to Hurricane Ida. Also make note of Tulane’s special teams. They lead the FBS in net punting and punt return defense. The underdog is going to put up a bunch of points in this game and thus should easily stay within the two touchdown spread. The Green Wave have covered 17 of their last 26 games overall. 8* Tulane

8* Stanford (8:00 ET): Both teams are off shocking upset victories, so the whole “letdown” is really a non-factor in this game. In the case of Stanford, their upset win was more “shocking” in terms of the point spread. They went to the Coliseum as 17-point underdogs last Saturday and beat USC 42-28. An 87-yard TD run by Nathaniel Peat opened the scoring for the Cardinal, who never trailed. The beatdown of the Trojans was so severe that they ended up firing Clay Helton after the game. The biggest takeaway for Stanford was the play of QB Tanner McKee, who threw for 234 yards and 2 TDs in his first start. 

The most shocking thing about Vanderbilt last week is that they won at all. The Commodores had dropped 11 in a row before winning at Colorado State 24-21 as 6-point dogs. It was a 38-yard FG with 19 seconds left that gave Clark Lea his first career win as head coach. In Lea’s first game, the Commies lost 23-3 to a FCS school (East Tennessee State) as 21-point favorites. Somewhat ironically, it was ETSU that provided Vandy its last win, back in 2019. The Commodores had lost 13 in a row to FBS teams before last week. It should be pointed out that they were outgained by 103 yards against CSU, another team that lost its opener to a FCS opponent. 

This is the 1st ever meeting between these academic powerhouses. It’s also the first time ever a Pac 12 team has paid a visit to Vanderbilt Stadium. Stanford has never visited a SEC school either. So there’s a real sense of unfamiliarity here. I think the real key is going to be McKee. He showed why he was such a prized recruit in leading the upset of USC. Thus you can pretty much disregard Stanford’s opening week game, a 24-7 loss to Kansas State, as McKee didn’t start that one. But you can’t discount just how bad Vandy is. If the Cardinal can hang 40+ points again, then they should have no difficulty covering the spread here. They led Southern Cal 42-13 last week. Lay the points. 8* Stanford

10* Toledo (4:00 ET): There’s a school of thought that says this is a prime letdown spot for Toledo, who is coming off a tough three-point loss at Notre Dame last week. The Rockets may have lost the game in South Bend 32-29, but they easily left with the cash as 16.5-point underdogs. Now they turn around and are laying more than two scores at home. Normally, I might agree with the prevailing wisdom. But in this instance, the Rockets are facing a Colorado State team that is off to as bad a start as anybody in College Football. The Rams are 0-2 with losses to South Dakota State and Vanderbilt where they’ve missed the spread by a combined 30+ points. I’ll lay the number Saturday afternoon at the Glass Bowl. 

Toledo got its first ever cover as a double digit dog under HC Jason Candle last week (previously 0-6 ATS). They led the Fighting Irish outright with just over a minute to go. They led at halftime as well. This is a team that should be in contention for a MAC Championship as it returns 21 starters from a team that outgained its six conference foes by an average of 131 YPG last season. Before facing Notre Dame, the Rockets blew out Norfolk State 49-10. There was no look ahead there. I don’t expect there to be a letdown here. 

But the crux of this play centers around just how bad CSU has been so far. Their first game was a 42-23 home loss to FCS South Dakota State. The Rams never led, trailed by as many as 26 and gave up almost 500 yards. Then they lost by three, again at home, to a very bad Vanderbilt team that had previously lost 11 in a row. The Rams have fallen into the bottom 10 of my power ratings and I now project them to win just two games this season. If you can believe it, those same power ratings say this should be a four touchdown spread! I’ll trust the numbers! 10* Toledo

9* Baylor (3:30 ET): Kansas suffered a real “bad beat” last Friday at Coastal Carolina. I know because I had the misfortune of playing the Jayhawks. They led outright (9-7) at the end of the first quarter and it was only a six-point game midway through the third. Keep in mind they were getting 26.5 points. As you can surmise, things went badly down the stretch as Coastal Carolina scored the game’s final three touchdowns to make it 49-22. A missed XP early in the game cost KU bettors the cover and to add insult to injury, the team chose to go for it on fourth down (rather than kick a FG) on the final drive.

While some may look at a result like that and figure Kansas is “due” this week, I happen to think quite the opposite. After playing hard for three quarters against a Top 25 opponent last week, I wonder if the Jayhawks will come out “flat” for the Big 12 opener. Now the game is at home. But it’s also against Baylor, who has beaten them 11 consecutive times and covered nine straight. I laid a similar number with the Bears last year in Waco and they won easily 47-14. Each of the L9 victories over Kansas have been by a minimum of 19 points. While it may not get as ugly as last year, I’m laying the points again. 

The Jayhawks have not won a Big 12 game in some time. In fact, it was Oct 26, 2019. It’s been 12 straight losses since. The L10 seasons have seen them go 5-84 SU in Big 12 play! They also only beat FCS South Dakota by a field goal in the opener (were slightly outgained). Remember that 1st year HC Lance Leipold was hired late (after the spring) due to the dismissal of Les Miles. Baylor is off its highest yardage and point total since the Art Briles era. Now the victim was an FCS school (Texas Southern), but the Bears will still take it. They are 2-0 SU having also defeated Texas State on the road, 29-20, in the opener. This is more of a fade on Kansas than anything else. 9* Baylor

8* Miami FL (12:00 ET): First impressions are always key and in the case of 2021 Miami football, the first impression wasn’t very good. “The U” was slaughtered by Alabama in their first game, losing 44-13. Not that it was expected to be that close; the Hurricanes were 19.5-point underdogs against the Tide despite being ranked #14 in the country at the time. But still it was a poor effort in front of a National TV audience. Manny Diaz’s team doesn’t get a “second chance at a first impression,” but at least they were able to defeat Appalachian State here in Coral Gables last week, even if it was only by a score of 27-25 (as seven-point chalk). 

With Miami 0-2 against the spread, Michigan State has the feel of a very “public dog” this weekend. The Spartans are 2-0 SU and ATS having gone on the road and upset Northwestern (as 3-point underdogs) in Week 1 and then handled their business against FCS Youngstown State (won 42-14 as 27-point favorites) in Week 2. In both games, Sparty scored a 75-yard TD on its first play from scrimmage. But now they are back on the road and facing their toughest opponent to date. After going 2-5 SU in Mel Tucker’s first season in East Lansing, Sparty was pegged by some to finish last in the Big 10 East this season. So excuse me if I am still a little skeptical of what they bring to the table. 

Miami was expected to battle with North Carolina for the top spot in the ACC Coastal. It’s been a rough start to the season in the ACC, but if the ‘Canes end up with only the loss to Alabama on their resume, I think they’ll be smiling down on South Beach. This is a more experienced team compared to Michigan State and they are much stronger at the QB position with D’Eriq King. Miami has moved the ball okay so far, the problem has been scoring only two touchdowns on eight red zone opportunities. That’ll change. Michigan State had been just 2-8 SU/ATS as a road dog the previous two seasons before the opening week upset of what promises to be one of the weaker Big 10 teams this season. The Spartans’ offensive line, which has done its job thus far, is in for a rude awakening against this Miami defensive front. 8* Miami FL

8* West Virginia (12:00 ET): The Mountaineers can ill-afford a second loss this early in the season. They lost the season opener at Maryland 30-24 as 2.5-point chalk due in large part to an inability to run the football (just 48 carries on 21 yards). However, a -4 turnover margin was the biggest culprit in that upset loss which wasn’t decided until the fourth quarter. Last week was the classic “get-well game” in Morgantown as WVU routed FCS Long Island 66-0, scoring on all of its first eight possessions including seven TDs. Fortunately, the ‘Neers get to stay at home this week for what should be a much tougher game - against #15 Virginia Tech - who is looking for its first 3-0 start in four seasons. I’m laying the points. 

Home field advantage has proven vital for WVU in the past when facing non-conference opponents. They have not lost here to a non-conference foe since #2 LSU beat them back in 2011. They are 18-0 SU since that time. This will be Virginia Tech’s 1st road game of 2021. They are below .500 (7-8 straight up) away from Blacksburg the previous three seasons. What is interesting about this number is that you’ve got an unranked team laying points to the #15 team in the country. In this situation, it has always been smart to back the unranked chalk. Since 2016, unranked faves are 16-7 SU when facing a Top 20 opponent. I’ve got no problem laying a number this short in Morgantown. 

As I just said, Va Tech is now ranked 15th in the country, which is something I don’t think many expected to see this season. They opened with a 17-10 upset of North Carolina, a game where they were outgained 354-296. They also barely outgained Middle Tennessee State last week (383-349). My own power ratings aren’t nearly as bullish on the Hokies, placing them 27th in the country right now. They just lost TE James Mitchell to a season-ending knee injury. WVU had a solid defense LY for Neal Brown, allowing only 20.5 points and 291 yards per game. This is the most experienced team in Brown’s three years here. With Oklahoma up next on the docket, the Mountaineers REALLY can’t afford a loss this week. Adding more fuel to the fire is the fact the program’s last win over Va Tech was in 2003. 8* West Virginia

8* Texas A&M (12:00 ET): The 7th ranked Aggies are coming off a very lethargic 10-7 win over unranked Colorado last week. Now that game was in Boulder and Jimbo Fisher did lose his starting QB (Haynes King) to injury. Zach Calzada will get the start this week. The fact A&M is laying more than four scores with a backup QB may not sound all that appealing, but the opponent is New Mexico, who I’d consider possibly one of the ten worst teams in America despite its 2-0 SU start. My power ratings have this line north of -40 (!) so we are actually getting a discount in College Station. I think Calzada is going to do just fine in this game and I look for the Aggies to win real big. Lay the points.

New Mexico is 2-0, but those wins were against Houston Baptist (FCS) and New Mexico State (2nd worst FBS team in my rankings). So it’s about as big a step up in class as possible for the Lobos this week. They didn’t even cover against either of the two patsies, winning the first game by only 10 points and second by only nine. Now this is the first 2-0 start in Albuquerque going back to 2005. But this is a team expected to finish at the bottom of the Mountain West this season. They’ve been fortunate to get five turnovers so far. 

Calzada did lead the GW drive last week, so he’s got that under his belt. He’s also backed up by a defense that surrendered just 54 total yards to Colorado in the second half and made them go 0 for 6 on third downs. New Mexico won’t score many points Saturday, making covering the spread more attainable for the Aggies. Heading into the SEC opener next week vs. Arkansas, look for Fisher to want to make a statement. This team has won 10 consecutive games since losing at Alabama early last season. They’ve won 27 straight over “Group of 5” teams by an average of almost 27 PPG. They’re 4-0 all-time vs. New Mexico with the three wins in College Station coming by an average of 46 PPG. 8* Texas A&M

10* Maryland (9:00 ET): For the time being, Illinois is still going to be getting some “residual respect” based on their opening week upset of Nebraska. The Fighting Illini closed as a 6.5-point home underdog for that game, but pulled a 30-22 upset thanks in large part to a safety & defensive TD. It was a great start to the Brett Bielema era in Champaign, but the Illini haven't won since. First they dropped a home game to UTSA (where they were a 4-point favorite) and then last week they got hammered 42-14 on the road by Virginia. The defense was torched for 556 yards by the Hoos and the number of points allowed by the Illini has gone up every week. Through three weeks, they are allowing 33.7 PPG. 

That’s bad news when getting set to face a Maryland team that just hung 62 points on the board last week. Granted that was against a FCS opponent in Howard. But Taulia Tagovailoa (yes, Tua’s younger brother) should have little difficulty carving up this Illini secondary. Tagovailoa has already thrown for 600+ yards in two games with six touchdowns and zero interceptions. He’s completed 76% of his passes thus far and has the fifth highest passer rating among QBs with at least 60 attempts. If that’s not enough to impress you, perhaps the Terrapins upsetting West Virginia 30-24 in Week 1 should. The offense put up nearly 500 yards in that win. They also have RB Tayon Fleet-Davis, who is averaging 7.4 yards per carry. 

Illinois will be starting Brandon Peters at QB Friday night. Peters had originally won the job in camp, but suffered an injury in the win over Nebraska. The Illini faithful are going to hang their hat on Peters’ return, but I just don’t see that being enough to stay within the number here. Illinois has won just 2 of the last 15 times they’ve been a home dog of 7.5 to 10 points and gone 5-10 ATS. These schools have met only once before and it ended up being a 63-33 win for Maryland three years ago. I still consider the Illini to be the worst team in the Big 10 and my power rankings say this should be a double digit spread. This won’t be another game like the one vs. Nebraska. Lay the points. 10* Maryland

8* Washington (8:00 ET): I understand that Washington just lost to a FCS school (Montana) and now has to travel cross-country to the Big House to face Michigan. But the line move for this matchup seems pretty severe considering UW was a preseason top 20 team and Michigan has become somewhat of a Big 10 “afterthought” under Jim Harbaugh. Should a 47-14 win against Western Michigan inspire this much confidence in the Wolverines? I don’t think so, especially considering they just lost star WR Ronnie Bell (who doubles as the kick returner) to a season-ending injury. Take the points Saturday night in Ann Arbor. 

The wide receiver position was very thin for Washington heading into the season opener. But still, that’s no excuse for losing to Montana and getting held to their lowest point total at home in 11 years. With the receiver group badly banged up, QB Dylan Morris didn’t help his team by tossing three interceptions. He was also sacked three times, despite playing behind what was thought to be one of the top offensive lines in the country. Bottom line is that 2nd year HC Jimmy Lake called the 13-7 defeat the most “embarrassing loss in the history of the program.” I’d expect the Huskies to come out strong here. 

With the receiver group still a question mark, Washington needs to commit to the run Saturday night. Of course, as I mentioned earlier, Michigan also just lost its best WR. So this could very well turn into a low-scoring game dominated by the defenses. That’s all the more reason to take the points in my eyes. Michigan QB Cade McNamara threw only 11 times for 136 yards last week. This line was close to a pick ‘em on the lookahead line. I just don’t see why the Wolverines should now be laying a touchdown. They are just 2-6 SU their L8 games vs. Power 5 teams and 1-11 ATS its L12 games vs. the Pac 12. 8* Washington

10* Iowa State (4:30 ET): Watching how the games unfolded last Saturday afternoon, I figured Iowa would end up being a pretty popular side in the battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy this week at Iowa State. Turns out that I was completely correct. The public sentiment is understandable considering how the Hawkeyes dismantled Indiana 34-6 in Week 1 while ISU struggled to get by FCS Northern Iowa. But the Cyclones, a top ten team in the preseason rankings, should not be cast aside so quickly. They have plenty of reasons to be motivated come Saturday afternoon and I absolutely love them laying a short number. 

The first reason Iowa State is going to be motivated come 4:30 ET in Ames is that ESPN College Gameday will be on campus for the first ever ranked vs. ranked meeting between these schools in the AP era. Now that also gives Iowa plenty of reason to be motivated here. But it’s the Cyclones looking to avenge five straight losses in this rivalry. The last time they met was 2019 and it was a one-point win for Iowa (18-17) here in Ames. This will be the first time since 2000 that Iowa State is set to go off as the favorite. They are 15-7 ATS vs. Top 25 opponents under HC Matt Campbell.

While Iowa’s Week 1 win was impressive, note that they got TWO pick-sixes in that win. They only outgained Indiana by 0.5 yards per play and did not score an offensive TD over the final 40 minutes of gametime. That game was also played in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes are now 16-1 SU the L17 times they have been a favorite of six points or less. But here they are underdogs on the road and they are just 1-7 ATS L8 in that situation. Yes, Kirk Ferentz’s team has not been beaten by more than one score since a 28-17 loss to Wisconsin early in the 2018 season. But Iowa State has QB Brock Purdy, RB Breece Hall and a defense that has allowed just 16 total points in the second half of its L6 games. 10* Iowa State

8* Buffalo (3:30 ET): Historically speaking, this is not a great spot for Nebraska. The Cornhuskers are just 4-11 ATS as a home favorite going back to 2017 and they are only 2-7 ATS the last nine times they’ve been a double digit favorite against a FBS opponent. They’ve lost five of the last seven times they’ve been favored, including the opener against Illinois, a game they were favored to win by more than a TD yet trailed by as many as 21. Scott Frost’s team did bounce back with a 52-7 win last week, but that was against FCS Fordham. That didn’t convince me they should be laying DD to a very live dog this week. 

Meanwhile, Buffalo has traditionally thrived in this situation. They are on a 9-2-1 ATS run as underdogs, which is the second best cover percentage taking points in the FBS going back to 2017. They are 4-0-1 ATS when getting double digits. Typically one of the best MAC teams (won the East Division last year), the Bulls are expected to take a step back in 2021 due to a late coaching change (Lance Leipold took the Kansas job in April) and a bevy of transfers that followed. But everything looked good last week when they completely overwhelmed FCS Wagner 69-7 in the opener. The offense gained 569 yards in the win. 

Nebraska just can’t be trusted under Frost as they’ve gone just 13-21 straight up during his tenure and never finished a season above .500. The program’s incredible streak of selling out home games has reached 376, but that’s because donors are now buying and distributing tickets. Buffalo is 7-1-1 ATS its last nine games vs Big 10 teams and won’t be intimidated going into Lincoln. There are upcoming road games at Oklahoma and Michigan State that may be on the Nebraska coaching staff’s minds. But they figure to have Buffalo’s full attention Saturday and I’m taking the points. In their L18 games vs. FBS teams, Nebraska has just ONE win by more than seven points. 8* Buffalo

10* Northern Illinois (1:30 ET): This could be a bit of a “sleepy” start for Wyoming as kickoff takes place at 12:30 local time in DeKalb. I can’t say that the Cowboys were all that impressive last week as they barely snuck by FCS Montana State, winning by a score of 19-16 as 19-point favorites after scoring a touchdown in the final minute. They led for just over five minutes of actual game time and were only +26 in total yards while gaining the same # of first downs as Montana State (17). Now they hit the road where they’ve lost seven of nine the previous two years. Take the points in this one. 

Northern Illinois definitely turned in one of the more surprising results of the opening weekend, beating Georgia Tech 22-19 as 19-point underdogs. Now, it would be a mistake to overreact to just one game, especially considering the Huskies were outgained in Atlanta by 128 yards and had 10 fewer first downs. But they also led most of the way and allowed just one touchdown through three quarters. It was a gutsy decision by HC Thomas Hammock that decided the game as he decided to go for two and the win after scoring a TD in the final minute. That should give his players plenty of confidence heading into the home opener. 

Northern Illinois went 0-6 SU last year, but figures to be much improved in 2021 as QB Rocky Lombardi transferred into the program after starting six games for Michigan State last year. Lombardi threw two touchdown passes in the opener and is joined by 19 returning starters. Wyoming won just two games last year and couldn’t score a TD until the 4Q last week vs. a FCS foe. Now they are laying points on the road? Seems questionable. My power rankings have this line as basically a pick ‘em, so I’ll grab the points with a team hungry for its first home win since the 2019 finale. 10* Northern Illinois

8* Army (11:30 AM ET): The Black Knights marched right over Georgia State in Week 1, winning 43-10 as 2.5-point underdogs. A 67-4 run to pass ratio wasn’t a problem considering the Cadets jumped out to a quick 21-0, scoring touchdowns on each of their first three drives. The defense allowed just 177 total yards, most of that coming on Georgia State’s two scoring drives. Now it’s back to West Point for the home opener where they’ll host a Western Kentucky team that could be looking ahead to next week. That’s a problem when facing the triple option. Lay the points in this one. 

The reason WKU could be looking ahead is because next week they’ll be hosting Indiana. There was no “lookahead” to this game as the Hilltoppers crushed Tennessee Martin last week 59-10. But that’s a FCS team and little can be taken from that game. I know that HC Tyson Helton has been great as an underdog and his team should improve upon LY’s 5-7 mark, but the offense averaged just 19.0 PPG in 2020 and you have to be concerned with the fact the defense just allowed 201 yards rushing on 34 carries last week. Needless to say, the triple option is a lot tougher to stop than the UT Martin ground game. 

Army has never beaten WKU in three all-time tries. The most recent meeting took place in 2019 and was a 17-8 loss as five-point road favorites in Bowling Green. The upperclassmen still remember that defeat and it’s not like the Black Knights aren’t already motivated to play their home opener on September 11th. A win here and a 4-0 start is a real possibility with home games vs. UConn and Miami OH on deck. I also think the early start time favors the home team in this one. Army is 8-2 ATS its L10 games as a favorite and feels undervalued here. I like that the line has come down a bit. 8* Army

8* Kansas (7:30 ET): Yes, the Jayhawks are still reeling from the mess left by the Les Miles’ regime and their 17-14 opening week victory over FCS South Dakota was certainly less than inspiring. The Jackrabbits even outgained them (slightly). But don’t tell that to the fanbase, who stormed the field after a 13-game SU losing skid ended last Friday in Lawrence. It took a late TD pass (with just 1:12 remaining) to get the win, but an outright win this week is not a concern of mine. All we need Lance Leipold’s team to do here is stay within three touchdowns + a field goal. I think they can do that. Take the points Friday night. 

Now Coastal Carolina is ranked #17 in the country, so this will not be easy for Kansas by any means. The Chanticleers rolled in their opening game (also against a FCS team), winning 52-14 as a 34-point favorite. They rolled up over 600 total yards on The Citadel. But even with this being a nationally televised game in Conway, it has the feel of a “letdown spot” for Coastal. Unlike the last two seasons, they have nothing to prove against Kansas, a P5 team they’ve previously beaten twice on the road. Those two wins in Lawrence were both by 15 points or less and Coastal was also an underdog in both games! It’s a totally different dynamic this time around. 

Coastal Carolina was Kansas’ only non-conference opponent in 2020. That was obviously a loss, but the previous two years did see the Jayhawks win both non-conf road games on the schedule. Each win - at Central Michigan in ‘18 and at Boston College in ‘19 - was by 24 points! It is crazy to think back and realize that KU was favored over CC last year. After all, they finished the season 0-9 while the Chanticleers had a 10-0 regular season record (lost in the bowl). Now CC goes from the “hunter” to “the hunted” and I wonder how they adjust. They were not favored by more than 17 in any game last season and were actually DOGS in 5 of their 12 games. 8* Kansas

10* Under Louisville/Ole Miss (8:00 ET): Well, the big news here is that Ole Miss HC Lane Kiffin will NOT be on the sidelines due to testing positive for COVID-19. This is certainly not a position the Rebels expected to be in after Kiffin had announced, just earlier this month, that the program had achieved a 100% vaccination rate. In the wake of this shocking news, I’m really surprised that we’ve seen little movement with either the side or the total. You have to think Kiffin’s absence on the sideline will loom large. The total has remained extremely high and thus I’m going with the Under Monday night. 

The Ole Miss offense was very good last year and figures to be again in 2021. But not having Kiffin will impact this side of the ball more than it will to the defense. It was only about four months ago that the O-Line coach was fired after the Spring Game. As of press time, it is not even known who will be serving as Ole Miss HC for this game. What is known is they are facing a Louisville defense that ranked fourth in the ACC in yards allowed last year. Seven starters are back from that group, which should be strong yet again. The Ole Miss defense also figures to be better than it was in 2020, if only because it can’t be any worse. 

The Rebels had the lowest ranked defense in the SEC a season ago. While there are definitely some great defenses in that conference, Ole Miss definitely struggled. With an offense that was excellent and a defense that was terrible, Rebels’ games averaged 77.5 PPG last season. I don’t think we’re getting to that number Monday night. Through Saturday’s games, the Under is 47-26-1 this CFB season. Even if Kiffin were coaching, this number seems like a “tough ask” in the opening game. 10* Under Louisville/Ole Miss

8* Florida State (7:30 ET): Notre Dame is coming off another run to the College Football Playoff. As per usual, they ended up being embarrassed, albeit not as bad as usual. The Fighting Irish’s season ended with a 31-14 loss to Alabama on New Year’s Day, their second straight loss after a 10-0 start. Brian Kelly’s team opens this season ranked in the top 10, but my guess is that the Irish aren’t going to be nearly as good in 2021 as they have a very inexperienced offense and most factors are pointing down. 

Last season was not normal for any team, but COVID-19 really hit Florida State’s ranks hard and the end result was a very disappointing first year under Mike Norvell. The Seminoles finished just 3-6 and had nearly a month with no games due to COVID. Their only wins over FBS opponents came against North Carolina (by three) and Duke (season finale). But with a full offseason to properly prepare, Norvell should have the ‘Noles back to respectability in 2021. I think tonight’s opener is a classic case of an unranked home team being undervalued against a Top 25 opponent. 

All eyes will be on the QB position in this game. Wisconsin transfer Jack Coan is set to start for ND. He’ll be operating behind an offensive line with four new starters though, so expect some growing pains. Florida State has not yet announced who its starting QB will be, but it could be McKenzie Milton, a former UCF standout who suffered a terrible injury back in 2018. If not, it will be Jordan Travis. Either way, I look for FSU to put some points on the board in this matchup. Offense was Norvell’s “bread and butter” at previous stops. The defense can only get better as well. Look for the underdog to surprise here. Take the points. 8* Florida State

8* Washington State (11:00 ET): Utah State had an uncharacteristically poor 2020 season. The Aggies sank to a 1-5 record and fired HC Gary Anderson after an 0-3 start. It wasn't just a bad record though. USU was just plain BAD as all five losses were by 19 points or greater. In the COVID shortened season, oddsmakers struggled to adjust to just how bad the Aggies had become. They also finished 1-5 ATS. Blake Anderson was hired away from Arkansas State to try and right the ship in Logan. But I still think the Aggies are pretty bad. Lay the points in this one. 

Washington State played only four games in 2020 and finished just 1-3. Running back Max Borghi, who was a preseason nominee for the Doak Walker Award (best RB), played in only one game. The Cougars’ three losses were to Oregon, USC and Utah, obviously three of the Pac 12’s better teams. They’ve got 15 returning starters and should be improved. I’ve got them finishing third in the Pac 12 North behind Washington and Oregon.

Both coaches are being coy about their starting quarterbacks for the opener. For Wazzu it will be either incumbent Jayden de Laura or Tennessee transfer Jarrett Guarantano. For Utah State, it will be either Andrew Peasley or Logan Bonner. What we do know is that the home team’s offense will be better. It’s all about the defense hopefully being better, especially against the pass. This one being in Pullman definitely helps Wazzu. Utah State is just 3-8 ATS as an underdog the previous two seasons. 8* Washington State

8* UCLA (8:30 ET): The Bruins treated me so well last week that I had to come crawling back to Chip Kelly again. Now LSU is obviously not going to be a pushover like Hawaii was. The Bruins raced out a huge 24-3 lead after the 1Q and never had to look back against the Warriors. RB Zach Charbonnet ran for three touchdowns in the win, which saw Kelly take his foot off the pedal in the second half. But if you recall, LSU’s run defense was quite bad a year ago during a very disappointing 5-5 SU season.

The fact that the Bruins so thoroughly dominated Hawaii, despite not getting a great game from QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, I think is a good sign. Crazy as it may sound, I expect DTR to have a much better game against LSU. I think it’s a big advantage that UCLA has played a game while LSU hasn’t. LSU is breaking in new coordinators for both sides of the ball. The Bruins’ offense averaged 35 PPG in 2020 with DTR at the helm. I wouldn’t be at all worried about last week’s 50% completion rate.

In last week’s analysis I talked about how UCLA’s four losses last year came by a total of 15 points. They were certainly better than their WL record. Most starters are back. The defense looks improved, which is all that is needed after the team was somehow 0-4 SU LY in games where the offense scored 34 or more points. Kelly’s offense went three-and-out at the 18th lowest rate in the country last season. We all know it was a down year for LSU, but they were lucky to even go 5-5 SU as they won their final two games despite QB Max Johnson completing only 55% of his passes vs. Ole Miss and Florida. The Tigers were 3-1 SU in one-score games as well. Their practice week was disrupted by Hurricane Irma, forcing them to practice in Houston before heading to the West Coast. I’m taking the points. 8* UCLA

10* Ohio (7:00 ET): The post-Frank Solich era begins in Athens Saturday night as the Bobcats host Syracuse of the ACC. It’ll be the first ACC school to ever visit Peden Stadium. So this is a big opportunity right out of the gate for new HC Tim Albin, who takes over from Solich after serving as his OC the L16 seasons. It was a very abbreviated final season for Solich as OU played only three games. They won twice and suffered a three-point loss at Central Michigan. Again, expect them to be one of the better MAC teams in 2021, despite the abrupt coaching change. 

Syracuse is not one of the better ACC teams, obviously. They were 1-10 SU a year ago, the lone win coming against Georgia Tech. Eight of their losses were by double digits. So it immediately caught my eye to see a team like this favored on the road, even if it’s ever so slightly. In my view, oddsmakers are overrating the coaching change at Ohio. I’d have them favored on a neutral field over Syracuse. So getting them at home, where they will be more of an advantage compared to last year, makes the Bobcats a must play. 

Ohio has been pretty strong at home the last few seasons. In Solich’s first ever home game, they beat Pitt, the program’s last win over an ACC opponent (2005). What a story if Albin replicates the achievement. Both teams plan to play multiple QBs Saturday night, but I like Ohio’s options better. Syracuse had terrible QB play a season ago and it’s the same arms that they are relying on this season. The Orange defense allowed 30+ points eight times in 2020 as they struggled to learn a new alignment. I just don’t think there’s much reason to expect Syracuse to be that improved for Dino Babers. 10* Ohio

8* Under Alabama/Miami FL (3:30 ET): We all know about Alabama. Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide are off another championship season and will be favored for the 81st straight time this week as they open the 2021 season against #14 Miami. It speaks volumes that the Tide are this large of a favorite against a top 15 team at a neutral setting. But then again, they are 11-2 ATS in season openers under Saban. When faced with a ranked opponent in the first game, ‘Bama is a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS with every win coming by double digits. In fact those six wins were by an average of almost 24 PPG! Atlanta has been kind to Saban through the years. 

So this is probably not the appropriate time to make the annual declaration that “The U is back!” Miami is just 3-10 ATS vs. teams ranked #1 or #2 going back to ‘93. But I do think that the Hurricanes’ defense can keep the team in it and thus ensure a pretty low-scoring game. This Alabama offense is YOUNG. There are 15 first or second year players on the two-deep with that unit, including QB Bryce Young, three offensive linemen and four wide receivers. Plus you’ve got a new playcaller in Bill O’ Brien. Meanwhile, Miami’s defense is a lot more experienced than it was a year ago. 

Of course Alabama’s defense will be pretty good too! They had 21 sacks over the final five games last year. They too are experienced with seven starters back. It is thought there are four future NFL starters among the linebacking group. Miami QB D’Eriq King is very good, but this one will be one of the best defenses he’s ever faced. He’s also coming off knee surgery. The Canes won’t score much. 8* Under Alabama/MIami

8* Fresno State (2:00 ET): I think this is going to be a really challenging spot for #11 Oregon. This is the Ducks’ first game and they’ve got #4 Ohio State on deck. Fresno State already has a game under its belt, that being a 45-0 shutout of sorry UConn last week. They only have a game with FCS Cal Poly to “worry about” next week. The Bulldogs certainly took no mercy on their hapless opponent last week, outgaining them 538-107 in a game that was 31-0 by halftime. Definitely take the points in this one. 

Since current HC Kaylen DeBoer came to the program in 2017 (as the offensive coordinator), FSU has been an excellent bet, going 24-9-2 ATS overall. That record includes a 12-4 ATS mark as an underdog. Certainly facing a “big name” Pac 12 school will have the Bulldogs motivated. In particular QB Jake Haener, who transferred out of Washington to be here. Haener threw for 331 yards and three touchdowns in the opener while completing 20 of 26 attempts. He didn’t even finish the third quarter. RB Ronnie Rivers now has the most rushing TDs in the history of the program with 45. 

Mario Cristobal is only 5-11-1 ATS all-time as a favorite of two touchdowns or greater. That includes a 3-8-1 ATS mark with Oregon. This is an early start time at Autzen, which could in turn lead to a bit of a “sleepy start” for the home team. I think it’s fair to say that the atmosphere in Eugene is a lot different at 11 AM local time as opposed to in primetime. No matter the score in the 4Q, I don’t think the Ducks are going to want to “expose the whole playbook” with Ohio State on deck. A classic lookahead spot for the favorite. 8* Fresno State

8* Charlotte (7:00 ET): These teams met last season and Duke delivered a 53-19 beatdown. But that was in Durham and in no way indicative of how the Blue Devils’ season went. David Cutcliffe’s team finished 2020 at 2-9 SU. Their only win besides the Halloween night thumping of Charlotte came three weeks earlier at Syracuse. They ended the season on 0-4 SU/ATS run where they gave up an average of 54 points per game (not a misprint!) and lost every time by no fewer than three touchdowns. Cutcliffe, who has given up playcalling duties, really has his work cut out with this Duke team entering 2021. 

Charlotte also won just two games last season. But they only played six times. Following the loss to Duke, the 49ers would get only one more game in - a 37-19 loss to Western Kentucky. So neither of these two teams has won since last Halloween. This will be the first time in school history that Charlotte has ever hosted a team from a Power 5 conference. So it’s a big deal. Last year’s matchup got out of hand quickly (Charlotte trailed 24-0 early in the 2Q), but again that was an outlier performance by Duke. An interesting note is that Charlotte actually had more first downs than Duke, 22-16! 

This is an experienced 49ers team that Duke will be facing this year. It starts at the QB position with redshirt senior Chris Reynolds, who has started 24 of the team’s last 25 games and thrown for over 5,000 yards in his career. The Duke secondary was like a sieve last season and they lost five of the top tacklers. Mark my words that the Blue Devils are going to struggle to keep Charlotte from scoring in this game and that’s a problem when you’re laying points on the road. Keep an eye on 49ers WR Victor Tucker, who might be the best player on the field Friday night. Charlotte is 3-0 SU/ATS the L3 times it’s been a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points. 8* Charlotte

10* Over Bowling Green/Tennessee (8:00 ET): It’s been a LONG time since Bowling Green last tasted victory. You’d have to go all the way back to November 2nd, 2019 when they defeated Akron 35-6. The MAC was the last conference to commence play in 2020 so the Falcons played just five games last season. Not only did they lose all five, but the closest the Falcons got to anybody was 25 points. They were outscored 225-57! It’s an eight-game losing streak that they’re on entering 2021. They are 3-14 SU the L2 seasons, both wins coming when favored. They are 0-9 SU/ATS on the road during that time.

Meanwhile, Tennessee is starting over...again. Josh Heupel will be the once proud program’s fifth coach since the dismissal of Phil Fulmer back in 2008. He inherits a team that went 3-7 SU in 2020 and lost seven of its last eight games. While nowhere close to the doldrums that Scot Loeffler finds himself in at BGSU, Heupel really has his work cut out for him in the rugged SEC. But for now, all he needs to do is beat up on a clearly overmatched opponent in the season opener. The Vols are massive favorites Thursday night in Knoxville with the line quickly approaching five touchdowns.

Tennessee didn’t do a lot of scoring last year. But I expect Heupel to look to put a lot of points on the board here. It’s an easy opportunity to impress the fanbase in the first game. Bowling Green’s defense allowed more than 300 yards per game rushing in 2020. So the Volunteers should be able to move the ball at will. Heupel is going with Michigan transfer Joe Milton III as his starting QB, ahead of Va Tech transfer Hendon Hooker and holdover Harrison Bailey. Bowling Green returns its starting QB from LY, Matt McDonald, and I expect his completion percentage to improve. The Falcons will score enough on a Vols defense that gave up 30.1 PPG LY to help send this one Over. 10* Over Bowling Green/Tennessee

8* Under Ohio State/Minnesota (8:00 ET): After losing to Alabama in the National Championship Game last January, Ohio State opens the new season ranked #4 in the country. They look to continue their Big 10 dominance on Thursday when they travel to face Minnesota. HC Ryan Day has done a tremendous job in Columbus and the 2020 squad was among the most explosive in the history of the program. But the Buckeyes have a new man under center, redshirt freshman CJ Stroud, who takes over for Justin Fields. With the new starting QB, I don’t think OSU is going to put a ton of points on the board … yet.

Minnesota was a disappointing 3-4 SU for PJ Fleck in 2020. That was a big drop off after going 11-2 SU in 2019. The Golden Gophers return most of their starters on offense, including QB Tanner Morgan. But Morgan’s top target, WR Chris Autman-Bell, suffered a leg injury in practice two weeks ago and is listed as a “game-time” decision for Thursday. I know that Mohamed Ibrahim, voted the Big 10’s best running back last year, is ready to go. But if the Gophers think this Ohio State defense is going to be as susceptible to the big play as it was last year, then they are in for a rude awakening.

This is a high total, likely based on how explosive the Ohio State offense was LAST season. But Fields is now in the NFL. I think there will be some early growing pains with Stroud. But the saving grace will be the improvement on the defensive end. There’s just no way the Buckeyes will rank 122nd in pass defense again. Morgan will struggle if Autman-Bell is out. His other primary target from last year, Rashod Bateman, is gone. Minnesota’s defense also figures to be better after allowing 40+ in the first two games of 2020. None of the last three meetings between these teams have seen more than 55 total pts scored. 8* Under Ohio State/Minnesota

10* UCLA (3:30 ET): It is clearly a make or break year for Chip Kelly at UCLA. He’s gone 10-21 SU in his first three years here (3-9, 4-8 and 3-4). Typically it’s year three when a coach truly puts his imprint on a program. But 2020 clearly was a season like none other before it. It was also a season in which the Bruins’ four losses came by a total of 15 points. Somehow they were 0-4 SU in games where they scored 35 or more points. That should never happen. But the good news is that - with most of last year’s starters returning and factors pointing up - this should be the season Kelly’s team is a contender in the Pac 12 South.

Hawaii looks to be pretty bad in 2021. They were 5-4 SU in 2020, but outscored. That’s the opposite of UCLA, who had a positive point differential last season despite the losing overall record. The Warriors’ season ended with a New Mexico Bowl victory over Houston. But that was one of only four times they had to leave the Island last year. Two of the four were losses by 24 points. Not only does QB Chevan Cordeiro lose three of his top receivers from last year, but HC Todd Graham had to replace two offensive coaches including the coordinator. 

UCLA has 10 starters back on defense including the top three tacklers. So look for that unit to be improved this season. The offense did improve last year, scoring 34+ points in five of seven games and committing three-and-outs at the 18th lowest rate in the country. Like the defense, most of LY’s starters are back. This is a very early start time for the Hawaii players and the last time the Warriors visited the Rose Bowl, the end result was a 33-point defeat. The Hawaii run defense was a major problem LY, giving up 212 YPG. 10* UCLA

10* Under Ohio State/Alabama (8:00 ET): Both Ohio State and Alabama won their semifinal games in impressive fashion. Of course that was expected from the #1 ranked Crimson Tide, who were 19.5-point favorites, a historic spread for a game of that magnitude. That they “only” won 31-14 obviously did not appease all, thanks to a backdoor Notre Dame touchdown. Conversely, Ohio State’s 49-28 schellacking of Clemson came as a surprise, even to someone like me who played the Buckeyes as a 7.5-point underdog. That this spread - vs. a team superior to Clemson - is now pretty similar isn’t that surprising as obviously an adjustment had to be made based on OSU’s incredible semi final effort. 

By now, you certainly have heard that this is the highest O/U line for any National Championship Game in the BCS or College Football Playoff era. Again, that had to be expected given what we saw in the semis, particularly the Ohio State game. I, for one, was quite happy to hear the news as “Under” was my immediate reaction when seeing this number. You have to remember that the Clemson defense Ohio State torched on New Year’s Night was missing its top DB for the 1st half and its best player for the majority of the game, both due to targeting. 

Ohio State games, for the most part, have been really high scoring this year. Only the Big 10 Championship (vs. Northwestern) saw fewer than 63 total points scored. But none have seen more than 77 scored. I would be quite surprised if the Buckeyes hit their season average of 43.4 PPG here vs. Alabama. In the same vein, I don’t think the Crimson Tide will hit their season average of 48.2 PPG either. Only two Bama games all season - Ole Miss and the SEC Championship vs. Florida - would have gone Over this total. Those two opponents were two of the most “all offense, no defense” teams in the Power 5 this season, certainly from the SEC. This should close as the highest O/U line for either team all season. 10* Under Ohio State/Alabama

10* Iowa State (4:00 ET): Oregon is a team that should feel pretty fortunate to even be in the Fiesta Bowl as they only got to play for the Pac 12 Championship because Washington had to back out due to COVID-19 concerns. Making the most of their opportunity, the Ducks upset unbeaten USC in that penultimate game, 31-24 as a three-point underdog. However, don’t let that one win fool you. Oregon was very much a shaky team in the regular season and I successfully faded them twice - their two SU losses (to Oregon State and Cal). They were not all that impressive in their first three wins either.

A win here for Iowa State would not only be an “exclamation point” on the job Matt Campbell has done in Ames, but also perhaps the program’s most notable bowl win EVER. So I don’t think motivation is going to be a problem for the Cyclones, who are coming off a tight 27-21 loss to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship where they were -3 in turnover margin, but outgained the favored Sooners. Iowa State is simply much better than any team Oregon has faced this year as the Pac 12 is not as strong as the Big 12, at least at the top. I’ve got four Big 12 teams, ISU being one, rated above every Pac 12 team in my personal power ratings. 

Oregon has had success as an underdog in the bowls previous to this, but Iowa State is 12-5 ATS against ranked opponents since 2017 and 4-1 ATS its last five games as a favorite. Plus, I think the Cyclones are going to be the hungrier side come Saturday and I’m not talking Tostitos (old sponsor of the Fiesta Bowl). Major edge at QB for ISU with Brock Purdy and RB Breece Hall should gash an Oregon defense that allowed a ton of rush yards when it faced Oregon State RB Jefferson. On the other side of the ball, the Ducks may be without their top RB (Vardell), which would not be good facing the #10 ranked run defense in the country. 10* Iowa State

8* Ole Miss (12:30 ET): Some of the same trends I discussed for Auburn-Northwestern apply here. Whether or not Auburn covers (this is being written on New Year’s Day), I will follow the trends here for Ole Miss-Indiana in the Outback Bowl. Since 2015, Big 10 teams are just 4-11 ATS vs. the SEC in the bowls (and the struggles really go back longer than that). The last three times a Big 10 team has been favored against an SEC opponent, they have lost outright. So I’m taking the points with the Rebels. 

Indiana went 7-0 ATS in the regular season, the best such mark in the entire country. But they haven’t played a game since December 5th and will be without QB Michael Penix Jr. In two games without Penix, the IU offense has managed just 115 and 130 yards passing. I can’t say that Ole Miss has a stout defense, but not facing Penix is a break. There’s a lot of talk about the Hoosiers having a “chip on their shoulder” here as they felt they should have been selected for the Fiesta Bowl. But they’ve also lost their last five bowl games, not having won one since 1991.

Ole Miss has its starting QB Matt Corral, who threw for nearly 3000 yards and 27 touchdowns in the regular season. Corral won’t have his two top WRs here, but he didn’t have them in the regular season finale vs. LSU either and the Rebels still scored 48 points. This was the SEC’s third best scoring offense (40.7 PPG) and they led the conference in rushing (217.7 YPG). Indiana saw only one good offense this year, Ohio State, and gave up 42 points in that game. The Rebels faced a much harder schedule and will be motivated here for their first bowl since 2016 and first under Lane Kiffin. 8* Ole Miss

8* Ohio State (8:00 ET): Coming into this College Football season, it seemed as if three teams stood above the rest: Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State. Those names shouldn’t be too surprising seeing as those three schools have combined to win five of the six College Football Playoffs (LSU last year was the only exception). Sure enough all three schools are back in the CFP this year and #3 Ohio State will play #2 Clemson in the Sugar Bowl, a rematch of last year’s semi final, which took place in the Orange Bowl.

You’re likely to hear a LOT about LY’s Orange Bowl in the build to this game. I know I remember it as the Buckeyes were my 10* Bowl Game of the Year and raced out to a 16-0 lead in less than 25 minutes. But they ended up losing 29-23 and not covering as 2.5-point underdogs, thus dropping to 0-4 SU all-time vs. Clemson, two of those losses coming in CFP semis. For this year’s rematch, it seems as if Ohio State is really being “written off.” I don’t understand that as this remains a supremely talented team and revenge is obviously a major factor. 

The Buckeyes didn’t exactly face a tough regular schedule this year, but they still won all six games by an average of more than three touchdowns per game. They were dealing with massive attrition from COVID-19 (22 players out) in the Big 10 Championship Game when they “only” beat Northwestern 22-10. HC Ryan Day has said he expects “a good number” of those players who sat out the Big 10 Champ Game to play here. Meanwhile, Clemson just announced it will be without OC Tony Elliott (COVID) for this game. Elliott is the play-caller. Look, I’m not going to say that the Tigers shouldn’t be favored here. But the line should not be more than a field goal. Take the points. 8* Ohio State

10* Auburn (1:00 ET): I believe the wrong team is favored in this year’s Citrus Bowl. Yes, I’m aware that Northwestern made it to the Big 10 Championship Game (where they led Ohio St at the half) while Auburn had a 4-loss regular season. But both were 6-win teams and you simply can’t discount the Big 10 vs. SEC factor here. Since 2015, Big 10 teams are just 4-11 ATS vs. the SEC in the bowls (and the struggles really go back longer than that). The last three times a Big 10 team has been favored against an SEC opponent, they have lost outright. The SEC is 7-1 SU L8 Citrus Bowls. I’m taking the points on New Year’s Day.

N’western is 7-1 ATS this season, which is the 2nd best cover percentage in the nation (trailing only Indiana & San Jose St, both of whom didn’t have a single ATS loss). But this will mark just the third time in 15 bowl games that the Wildcats will be favored (they are 4-10 SU all-time in bowls). That one ATS loss this season came in an outright loss to Michigan State, who was not a good team. The majority of wins were both close and fortunate. The Wildcats were outgained on a per play in the regular season, so they were extremely fortunate to go 6-2 SU. They won three games in which they were outgained. In two of those three wins, they were outgained by 100+ yards!

Auburn should be thrilled to get away from the SEC gauntlet as they are 6-1 ATS their L7 non-conference games. Of course, the biggest news here is that Gus Mahlzan was shockingly fired after the regular season and replaced with former Boise St HC Bryan Harsin. DC Kevin Steele will be the interim coach for the bowl game. Steele’s defense should have a strong game here against an anemic N’western offense that averages less than 300 YPG away from home. Three of Auburn’s four losses this year were to Alabama, Texas A&M and Georgia, all top 10 teams. I still consider the Tigers a top 25 team. They don’t turn the ball over (only 8 all season!) and that’s key vs. a N’western D that forced almost 2.0 TOs per game. 10* Auburn

8* Under Cincinnati/Georgia (12:00 ET): So five teams finished the NCAAF regular season unbeaten. Two - Alabama and Ohio State - are in the CFP. The other three all hail from the so-called “Group of Five.” Of course, only one of those teams is allowed in the New Year’s Six every year and this time it’s 9-0 Cincinnati. The Bearcats will try and accomplish what Coastal Carolina couldn’t (and maybe San Jose State won’t) and that’s finish the year undefeated, It won’t be easy though as they’re matched up with #9 Georgia, who has looked very good ever since its embarrassing loss to Florida, in the Peach Bowl. 

Georgia is ranked one spot lower than Cincinnati, but is a TD favorite as of press time. UGA is 3-0 SU since JT Daniels took over as the starting QB and produced its two highest scoring games of the year (49 and 45 pts) during that time. But keep in mind that Daniels and the Dawgs did this against the bottom of the SEC barrel, namely South Carolina, Miss State and Missouri. Cincy brings a formidable defense to Atlanta, one that gives up an average of only 16 PPG. Granted, that was against a weaker schedule than UGA faced, but remember there are lots of offenses from the American that can score in bunches. UCF is the only team that scored more than 24 on the Bearcats’ defense during the regular season. 

Georgia is no defensive slouch either, giving up just 19.9 PPG. I can say with full confidence that Cincy did not face a SEC-caliber defense this year. The closest was probably Tulsa in the AAC Champ Game and there the Bearcats were held to just 27 points, their lowest in any game besides the one vs. Army. The last time Cincy took on a team this talented, they were shut out 42-0 by Ohio State (last year). The Bearcats are probably hoping that UGA “forgets to bring their motivation” on New Year’s Day. Both teams saw plenty of totals lower than this one during the regular season. The AAC Champ Game total was just 45.0. 8* Under Cincinnati/Georgia

10* Ball State (2:00 ET): So my biggest selection of the entire bowl season will be on Ball State. While their opponents (San Jose State) are undefeated (7-0 SU), the Cardinals happen to bring a 6-game win streak of their own into the Arizona Bowl. The last of those six wins was a big one as BSU upset Buffalo in the MAC Championship Game, as a two-touchdown underdog, 38-28. That they held Buffalo’s explosive offense to just 7 points in the 2H was every bit as impressive as scoring 35 pts of their own in the 1H. I had the Cardinals in that MAC Championship Game, so I know what they’re all about. You’ll want to be on them plus the points here.

San Jose State also pulled an upset in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game, beating Boise State 34-20 as a 6.5-point dog. The Spartans are no worse than 6-0-1 ATS this season (7-0 for some) so they have clearly defied expectations in running the table thus far. You’ve got to give them credit, although the MWC was not particularly strong this season. Something else that jumps out is SJSU having been favored only three times previous to this. Those games were against New Mexico, UNLV and Hawaii, none of whom are in Ball State’s class. This is a lot of points to lay against a good team when you’re not accustomed to the favorite role.

Ball State’s only loss came against Miami OH (season opener), a game which they led by DD in the 2H. While four of their six wins have been by seven points or less, that doesn’t matter when you’re the underdog as the Cardinals are here. I said the same thing going into the MAC Championship. The upset of Buffalo marked the 7th consecutive time Ball State has covered as an underdog. The program has NEVER won a bowl game (0-7 SU all-time) so they will be very hungry on New Year’s Eve. They beat Buffalo w/o RB Huntley, so they can certainly do it again here. San Jose State had just one offensive TD in the first three quarters vs. Boise after trailing at the half vs. Nevada. We saw what Ball State did in the 1H of the MAC Champ Game. My power ratings say this should only be a 2-point spread. 10* Ball State

10* Under Florida/Oklahoma (8:00 ET): I think most people consider this year’s Cotton Bowl - between #6 Oklahoma and #7 Florida - to be the “best” matchup outside of the CFP. There’s a lot going on from a betting perspective. Florida, who is coming off B2B losses, got the bulk of the early money. But the line has since “jumped the fence” and as of press time, OU is now the slight favorite (which my own power ratings agree with). Betting on the total has been lopsided towards the Over, but you’d expect that based on the SEC Championship Game. This is currently the highest O/U line for any remaining bowl game. 

I personally think the O/U line is too high here. I’m aware that both offenses are averaging 41 PPG and that Florida’s defense was torched for 89 points in the L2 games (52 by Bama). But I don’t see that happening again here. Oklahoma has been held to “just” 27 points in its last two games, the Big 12 Championship vs. Iowa State and by Baylor. The Sooners have gone Under in three straight and it has been their defense taking away some of the spotlight from the offense down the stretch. Five of the last six Oklahoma opponents have been held to 21 points or less and the season-long numbers would look even better had it not been for a 4OT thriller against Texas. 

Florida has scored more than 30 points in every game this year, but I don’t see them hitting 40 and that’s key here with the number being so high. TE Kyle Pitts and the two top WRs are all sitting this game out, which will greatly affect the passing game. Yet, save for the SEC Championship Game, this is the highest O/U line for any Gators’ game this season. I’m not sure what happened in those L2 games as the defense really seemed to be turning a corner down the stretch (three straight games holding opponents below 20 points). It is worth noting Oklahoma’s offensive numbers are DOWN from LY. 10* Under Florida/Oklahoma

10* Texas (9:00 ET): Unless for some reason they are mentally checked out, I fully anticipate the Longhorns rolling in this year’s Alamo Bowl. UT has certainly gone through some “trials and tribulations” in 2020 (haven’t we all?!) with three losses and HC Tom Herman’s job security even being called into question. But the ‘Horns closed strong by winning four of five and ended up landing in the top 15 of my personal power ratings (higher than their #20 finish in CFP rankings). That this number came down a bit is great as Texas won all six of its games this year in which it was a 3.5 to 9.5-point favorite. 

Texas’ losses this year came either by three points or less (TCU, Iowa St) or after FOUR overtimes (Oklahoma). So they were really close to being undefeated despite three losses. The TCU loss was ridiculous as the offense was stopped on a goal line stand in the final minute after the defense gave up the go-ahead score in the final four minutes. The Iowa State game was another blown lead and they missed the potential tying FG as time expired. No one has really stayed close with Oklahoma since the Longhorns did. While there have been a few opt-outs for the bowl game, QB Ehlinger is still here and he had a 25-5 TD-INT ratio in the regular season. 

Colorado just doesn’t measure up here, in my opinion. The Buffaloes were a surprising 4-1 with that lone loss coming 17 days ago to Utah (38-31). They played no one the caliber of Texas. While CU can run the ball effectively w/ RB Broussard, the Longhorns’ defense ranks 30th in the country in stopping the run. The Buffs are also going to be w/o LB Nate Landman, who was the star of the defense. Of all the remaining bowl games, this is the one my power rating project to be the most lopsided (save for Notre Dame-Alabama, which has a MUCH higher spread). Lay the points. 10* Texas

10* Marshall (2:30 ET): To quote the Hives “Hate to Say I Told You So,” (Buffalo fans). Last Friday I faded the heavily favored Bulls in the MAC Championship Game (-14 vs. Ball State), noting just how soft a schedule it had been for a team that came in at 5-0 SU. When 40% of your schedule was against two of the worst three teams in the country (Akron, Bowling Green), I think an unbeaten record should be taken with a “grain of salt.” Sure enough, as I predicted Buffalo was not infallible. They lost outright to Ball State, 38-28, a result even better than I could have imagined. Motivation may now be an issue for the Bulls playing just one week later. 

I said the same thing about Marshall when I successfully faded them last Friday. The Thundering Herd just had their own unbeaten run (7-0) ended two weeks earlier with a shocking loss to Rice. I said that would greatly affect their motivation in the C-USA Champ Game (vs. UAB) where they were favored. They suffered the same fate as Buffalo did, losing outright. In their case, it had to do with an offense that could not get on track for a second straight game. After five turnovers led to a shutout loss to Rice (stunning!), the Herd could only manage 268 total yards against UAB. 

So after successful fades of both teams exactly one week ago, who do I go with in the Camellia Bowl? Well, this game likely comes down to Marshall’s excellent rush defense stopping Buffalo RB Jaret Patterson. Fortunately for them, Patterson suffered a knee injury LW vs. Ball State. The Bulls offense really slowed down after that injury. While “likely” to play here, he won’t be 100% effective, especially against a defense giving up only 2.7 yards per carry. A Buffalo defense that’s given up 30+ in half of its games should be the “elixir” for the Marshall offense. The Thundering Herd have had FAR more success in bowl games than Buffalo, so take the points here. 10* Marshall

8* Georgia Southern (3:00 ET): Louisiana Tech actually brings a 6-year bowl win streak into this year’s New Orleans Bowl, all those wins coming under current HC Skip Holtz. However, there is little disputing that this is one of the weaker iterations during Holtz’s tenure. As far as this year’s crop of bowl teams go, the Bulldogs are among the very worst. Of their five wins this season, three were against terrible teams and another was a FCS school. The fifth was a 2OT game where they trailed by 14 going into the 4Q. Earlier in the year, they erased a 17-point 2H deficit and won. The bottom line is that this team, which was outscored this season, ought to feel very fortunate to have a 5-4 SU record.

Georgia Southern was probably the best team in the Sun Belt this season after you get beyond the “big three” of Coastal Carolina, Louisiana and Appalachian State. To be clear, this year was the strongest the Sun Belt has been, perhaps ever. The Eagles played all three of those teams tough and its other two losses were by a combined 7 points, both on the road (including 28-27 at Army). It’s really just the opposite of La Tech, who probably should have had a worse regular season record. Ga Southern is definitely “better than 7-5 SU” in my eyes.

This is Georgia Southern’s third straight bowl appearance, so they’re no stranger to the postseason under HC Chad Lunsford. Look for the Eagles’ offense to have plenty of success running the ball in this game as La Tech’s defense has given 330+ yards rushing in two of its last three games. Ga Southern comes in averaging 262 rush yards per game on the season. Louisiana Tech’s offense is just horrible as it averages only 2.8 YPC and 325 total YPG. The Eagles have the edge defensively in this one as well as they allow only 22.3 PPG. La Tech allows 34.3. This one should quickly turn into a blowout. 8* Georgia Southern

10* Tulane (3:30 ET): Of the 28 bowl games scheduled for 2020-21, this is the one where the line jumped out to me the most. I feel this number is WAY off as a Tulane team that my power ratings respect quite a bit should comfortably win this game by double digits. Both teams are in a bowl for the third consecutive year with Green Wave having won its prior two while Nevada lost LY’s Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, 30-21 to Ohio U. My power ratings haven’t liked the Wolf Pack all season and the way they finished the regular season really seemed to confirm that skepticism. Lay the points!

Nevada started 5-0 (SU), but three of those five wins came by seven points or less. Also, they got to face three of the worst teams in the country - UNLV, Utah State and New Mexico - all in a row. It was when the Wolf Pack traveled to face Hawai (11/28) that I finally jumped in to fade. Sure enough, that ended up being an outright loss for Nevada (24-21 as 7.5-pt chalk) and a win for me. The following week, the Wolf Pack were very fortunate to beat Fresno State 37-26 as they gave up 600 total yards in the contest. They gave up 500 more to San Jose State the next week while the offense was shut out in the 2H. So it’s been almost a month since they played a “good game.” 

 You may recall that I played against Nevada in LY’s Famous Idaho Potato Bowl and it was one of my stronger selections of the entire bowl season. The Wolf Pack have now lost 12 consecutive games at Albertsons Stadium (0-9 vs. Boise St, 0-3 in bowls), so do not be worried about any “geographical disadvantage” here for Tulane. The Green Wave, who are looking for a third straight 7-win season under Willie Fritz, are 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS as favorites this season and 17-4/14-7 in that role L3 seasons. They easily could have had a better regular season record, but lost three games in which they held a DD lead plus lost in OT to SMU. A 35-21 win over Memphis was a strong way to close the regular season. There’s tremendous depth at running back here and the defense led the AAC in sacks. 10* Tulane

8* Florida (8:00 ET): Fading Florida proved quite fruitful for me last week as the Gators went out and lost outright (as 23.5-point favorites) to LSU. Blame the ill-timed throwing of the shoe all you want, but it was not a great all-around effort by Dan Mullen’s team and the loss definitely took some of the “shine” off the SEC Championship Game vs. Alabama. But that’s precisely how I like it! Now, no one is giving Florida a chance, despite the fact they are the #7 ranked team in the country and their two losses this year have been by a combined six points. While I don’t anticipate another outright win here, I am definitely taking the points. 

Now we ought to give Alabama their due. The top-ranked Crimson Tide mowed their way through the regular season, winning all 10 games by an average of almost 33 PPG. Lost in the middle of the pandemic is the fact this team is probably one of Nick Saban’s most dominant EVER at Tuscaloosa. But this is a LOT of points to be laying when you’re facing a good team and everybody expects you to win. Florida has been an underdog only one other time this season and it was when they annihilated Georgia (on a neutral field) 44-28. The Gators have put up at least 31 points in every game this season. 

Furthermore, Florida is 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS off an SEC loss under Mullen. I mentioned a similar trend for LSU under Ed Orgeron last week. Look, there’s probably nothing I can say to convince you that the Gators have a chance of winning this game. But they certainly can keep it close. Other than Texas A&M, who they faced early in the season and at home, Bama played a fairly weak SEC schedule. After so many covers in a row (7-0 ATS L7), isn’t at least one close game in store? Both of Bama’s non-covers came away from home this year. They haven’t faced Florida since the 2016 SEC Title Game and Heisman frontrunner Kyle Trask is good enough to keep this one within striking distance. 8* Florida

9* Under Clemson/Notre Dame (4:00 ET): These teams combined for 87 points in the first meeting and this time Clemson will have Trevor Lawrence playing QB. So everyone is going to be expecting plenty of points in the ACC Championship Game between #2 Notre Dame and #3 Clemson. But don’t discount what both defenses are capable of doing here. Interestingly, Lawrence’s presence on the field for this rematch seems to be worth only a couple points to the spread (Clemson was -5 in South Bend), but the total is NINE points higher than the closing number from last month. I see lots of value on the Under in this one.

Since Lawrence returned to the field, Clemson has rolled to victories over Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech. The Clemson offense put up 97 points in those two wins, but equally impressive is the fact the defense allowed just 27 total. Though Notre Dame was able to put up 47 (in overtime, remember), the Tigers are still allowing only 18.3 PPG for the season and remain an elite unit on that side of the ball. This is also their second look at the Notre Dame offense and I believe they’ll be better prepared to stop Ian Book and company. The Tigers weren’t just missing Lawrence last month, they were w/o three top defensive players including the most important (James Skalski), all of whom are back now. 

 What Notre Dame’s defense did against North Carolina a couple weeks ago may have been among the most impressive performances I’ve seen all season. Holding the Tar Heels to just 17 points and under 300 yards really is a “Herculean achievement” if I do say so myself. The Fighting Irish defense has been even stingier than Clemson’s this season, giving up only 17.1 PPG. There have been only three games this season where ND has allowed more than 21 points. They held Clemson RB Travis Etienne to just 28 yards on 18 carries in the first meeting. Remember that OT added 21 points to that final score in South Bend. The game was “only” 33-33 at the end of regulation. 9* Under Clemson/Notre Dame

10* Mississippi State (3:30 ET): It was back on October 10th that I wrote the following: “The fact that Mississippi State was able to upset LSU (down in Baton Rouge) in the season opener is going to carry a lot of weight in the marketplace moving forward.” It was time to fade the Bulldogs that day and sure enough they lost 24-2 to Kentucky. It’s been all downhill since in Starkville with the only victory coming against perennial SEC pasty Vanderbilt (who has fired its HC). Mike Leach’s first season is guaranteed to be a losing one (2-7 SU/3-6 ATS entering Saturday), but I would caution about writing them off Saturday at home vs. Missouri. 

Missouri was actually ranked in the Top 25 of the CFP Rankings last week, which I found to be quite curious. The Tigers barely crack my own Top 50 and sure enough they went out and got whipped 49-14 by Georgia last week. Now that’s a good team Mizzou was up against, but that’s precisely the point. The Tigers’ “best” win this season was probably LSU, same as Mississippi State. They have more wins than the Bulldogs, but (like Miss St) the only dominant one was against Vandy. Three have been by seven points or less. 

Mississippi State has had all sorts of problems on offense this year, but facing a Mizzou defense that has given up 35 or more points six times this season might be “what the doctor ordered.” The last two weeks have seen the Tigers give up a total of 97 points! Up front, the Mizzou defense has been decimated by injuries.While they did win the only other time they were road favorites, that was against a South Carolina team (17-10) playing for a lame duck head coach. This is the first time in four games that the Tigers are playing away from home. They’ve yet to score more than 17 in any of their three previous road games. 10* Mississippi State

8* Washington State (1:30 ET): In any other College Football season, a matchup like this would likely go a long way in determining bowl assignments. But as you know, 2020 has been no normal year. There seems to be no shortage of “breaking news” these days in this sport, and on Friday, Utah announced that they would not be accepting any bowl bids. Washington State has already indicated the same thing. Thus, this will likely be the last time we see either of these teams this year. Utah laying double digits in a game where they may not be all that motivated seems highly questionable. I’ll take the points. 

Utah started out 0-2, but actually played pretty well in losing efforts vs. USC and Washington. They blew a 21-point lead against the latter. Turning the ball over a total of nine times in those two games also played a large role in losing. So I’m not surprised to see that the Utes have turned things around some with B2B wins, against Oregon State and Colorado. But they did get to face OSU w/o its star RB and starting QB. That seems like a pretty big advantage, yet the Utes won by only six in a game they returned a punt for a touchdown. Last week at Colorado, they trailed by 11 in the first half before turning it on after halftime for a 38-21 win and cover. 

Washington State has only gotten to take the field a total of three times this season. Last week’s game vs. Stanford was called off 90 minutes before kickoff. So the Cougars’ only game in the last month was an ugly 38-13 loss at USC, which was actually played on a Sunday. QB Jayden de Laura, who looked very sharp in the team’s first two games, did not play well against USC. I expect him to bounce back here. He’s completed 60% of his passes and the Wazzu rushing attack could be a lot better if Max Borghi is able to finally suit up. His replacement (Deon McIntosh) hasn’t been too shabby either, averaging 6.5 YPC vs. USC. 8* Washington State

8* Tennessee (12:00 ET): Texas A&M certainly has a lot at stake here. Currently #5 in the CFP rankings, the Aggies are first in line to move up if any of the top four stumble. If #2 Notre Dame were to defeat #3 Clemson later on Saturday, then the Tigers would almost certainly fall from the top four (would be their 2nd loss to ND). So the world is going to be on A&M here in Knoxville with the belief that “style points” matter. They really don’t though and a “dirty little secret” is that the Aggies have just ONE win by more than 13 points all season and that was against a South Carolina team that was eight days away from firing its HC. 

Two weeks ago, Tennessee gave me a nice win here at home vs. Florida, sliding right in through the backdoor. Though they were pretty thoroughly outplayed that day, the Volunteers hung in there with one of the better teams in the country. That coupled with last week’s 42-17 beatdown of Vanderbilt (snapped a six-game losing streak) MAY be enough to save HC Jeremy Pruitt’s job, but that’s far from certain. Pruitt definitely cannot afford a blowout loss here in the home finale. The “good news” is that the Vols’ last three losses have all come by 13 points or fewer. 

I know that A&M is perfect as a road favorite (5-0 ATS) under HC Jimbo Fisher and they’ve got something to play for here. But the number is definitely inflated and I’m taking the points. The Aggies have failed to cover all three times they’ve been double digit chalk this season and are a horrific 1-15 ATS off a bye (last week’s game vs. Ole Miss was cancelled). The Aggies’ offense has failed to impress me at times this season and the Tennessee defense has played a lot better of late, especially against the run as they’re giving up only 1.5 YPC the L2 weeks. 8* Tennessee

8* Ball State (7:30 ET): Buffalo put the finishing touches on a perfect 5-0 regular season last Saturday with a 56-7 thrashing of Akron. The Bulls had already been declared MAC East Champs prior to that game, so it’s pretty impressive that they were able to go out and still dominate by such an overwhelming margin. Of course, it helps when you’re facing Akron. That’s kind of my view on Buffalo as a whole in 2020. Their resume looks really impressive, but when you consider they’ve faced Northern Illinois, Miami OH, Bowling Green, Kent St and Akron, 5-0 comes across more as “yeah, that BETTER be their WL record.” 

Ball State has played one more game than Buffalo, but also brings a 5-game win streak into Friday’s MAC Championship Game. The Cardinals lost the season opener to Miami OH (blew a DD lead in the 2H), but has been perfect ever since. While four of those wins were by seven points or less, that doesn’t matter when you’re the underdog like they are here. Ball State’s regular season schedule was much tougher than Buffalo’s as the last three weeks have seen the Cardinals defeat Toledo, Central Michigan and Western Michigan, two of those games coming on the road. 

The MAC Title Game, as per usual, is being played at Ford Field in Detroit. The conventional wisdom here seems to be that Buffalo is - by far - the best team in the MAC. But when 40% of your schedule was against two of the worst three teams in the country (Akron, Bowling Green), I’m not willing to co-sign that. Though Ball State will play without RB Caleb Huntley (opted out), they are more than capable of making a game of this. They have covered six straight as an underdog and I believe Buffalo is overvalued due to getting some national coverage for a 70-point game against Kent State a few weeks ago. Ball State is better than any team Buffalo has faced this season. 8* Ball State

10* UAB (7:00 ET): Though this is the Conference USA Championship Game, it’s hardly a great “spot” for favored Marshall. Two week ago, the “bubble burst” in the Thundering Herd’s unbeaten season and it happened in one of the unlikeliest of ways, a 20-0 home loss to Rice. Ending up as the top “Group of 5” team is no longer in play, so motivation may be an issue here even though it's a Conference Championship Game. UAB is in its third straight C-USA Title Game (won ‘18, lost ‘19) and is arguably the better team here. Take the points. 

 You’ve got two strong defenses here and on what’s going to be a chilly night in Huntington, points are likely to be at a premium. That makes the underdog all the more attractive in this scenario. Remember that Rice was without its starting QB when it upset Marshall. Of course, offense was the bigger issue for the Thundering Herd that day as they were shutout on the scoreboard and turned the ball over five times. It’s notable that a week later UAB beat Rice 21-16.

UAB comes in at 5-3 SU and 2-6 ATS. While they’ve been poor at the betting window, there are a couple things to keep in mind. One is that they played a number of games with a backup QB. Starter Tyler Johnston III is now back. Also, two of the Blazers’ three losses this season were by four points or less. The other was at Miami FL in a Thursday night game early in the season. Since then, the defense has allowed more than 24 points in just one game and that came in an OT loss where they blew a 2 TD lead in the 4Q. Not sure home field advantage means much in 2020 and then you’ve got the fact Marshall is just 6-13 ATS its L19 home games. 10* UAB

8* UNLV (11:00 ET): It certainly hasn’t been a good year for UNLV. In fact, last week’s game vs. Boise State was probably for the best as the Rebels were quite likely to take a beating in that one. This is a team that’s already 0-5 SU (0-4-1 ATS) with every loss coming by at least 13 points. Because of that, you know that they’re going to be getting a ton of points every Saturday. This week though, it’s too many as the opponent just isn’t deserving of this price range. Take the points. 

Two weeks ago, I took Hawaii. It was here at home, but they were GETTING points. The opponent was Nevada, undefeated at the time, and the Warriors ended up pulling off a 24-21 outright win (were +7.5). Unfortunately, they were unable to sustain that momentum last week against San Jose State. That despite being dealt a major advantage in that the game was moved from San Jose to Honolulu (COVID). Hawaii lost 35-24 to fall to 3-4 SU on the year. They’ve been favored only twice in 2020 and failed to cover both times. One time they lost outright (at Wyoming). The other, they could only beat a winless New Mexico team by six here on the Island. 

Hawaii’s three wins this season have been by a total of 24 points. So you can see why I’d be so skeptical of laying so many points with them here. UNLV doesn’t want to finish the season winless (who would?), thus I expect a solid effort out of the underdog. The Rebels can control this game in the trenches as Hawaii is not particularly strong on either side along the offensive or defensive lines. At the very least, a Hawaii defense allowing more than 6.0 yards per play will keep the backdoor open. 8* UNLV

9* Virginia Tech (8:00 ET): Last year’s “Commonwealth Cup” was a rather sizable play for me. It was the day after Thanksgiving and my 10* College Football Game of the Year. I took Virginia, who had lost the previous 15 meetings, as a 2.5-point underdog. They won outright 39-30 thanks to a thrilling 4th quarter comeback (outscored Va Tech 19-3). Coming into this year, the two rivals are in much different form. Virginia is on a 4-game win streak and 5-0 ATS L5. Va Tech is on a 4-game losing streak while also going 0-4 ATS. 

For the first time in a LONG time, it “feels” like Virginia should be favored coming into this game. But it’s telling that they are not. Obviously, some of that has to do with the fact that the game is in Blacksburg. The Cavaliers have not won here since 1998 when they were ranked #16 in the country. Also, the entirety of UVA’s 4-game win streak has come in Charlottesville. One win was against a FCS foe. Last week they did beat Boston College for the 1st time ever, but the Eagles were without starting QB Phil Jurkovic and RB David Bailey. Despite this, the Hoos’ defense still allowed 32 points and 500+ yards. 

Almost all of those 500+ yards allowed came through the air. In fact, BC finished with -7 rush yards for the game after factoring in sack yardage. But Virginia Tech’s offense is #1 in the ACC in rushing yards, led by Khalil Herbert’s 7.6 yards per carry. Hokies HC Justin Fuente may very be coaching for his job Saturday night. Three of the Hokies’ six losses this year have been by a TD or less. They actually played Clemson pretty tough (for a half) last week despite losing the turnover battle and QB Hooker (he’s fine now). Virginia has not won a road game all year. Don’t be fooled by the records, Va Tech is better. 9* Virginia Tech

10* LSU (7:00 ET): LSU is once again “making history” in 2020, only unlike last season it’s a rather DUBIOUS history. Last week saw them close as a 28.5-point underdog at home vs. Alabama. That was the largest spread ever for a defending National Champion and the Tigers promptly got blown out 55-17. This week vs. Florida makes them the first team EVER to begin a season ranked in the Top 10 and end up being a 20+ point underdog in two separate games. Needless to say, it’s been a fairly ugly “fall from grace” for HC Ed Orgeron, who rode Joe Burrow to a National Championship 11 months ago. 

While I didn’t want to jump in front of the Alabama train last weekend, I do think this spread is far too high. My own power ratings say it should be closer to a 2 TD spread. That’s a lot of value. I successfully faded Florida last Saturday as I thought they were far too big of a favorite in Knoxville. While they did outgain Tennessee pretty substantially, it ended up being a 31-19 final due to a competitive first half and late Volunteers’ touchdown. This will be the 2nd largest Florida-LSU spread ever and largest since 1994 when Florida didn’t cover. 

By beating Tennessee last weekend, Florida has clinched a spot in next week’s SEC Championship Game where they’ll get their crack at top ranked Alabama. So this is a classic lookahead spot for the Gators. Obviously, the lookahead line for this game was a lot lower, not just at the start of the season, but even just a few weeks ago. This number is a product of recency bias and I just can’t see LSU getting blown out again. They’ve got too much talent and Orgeron is still on a 6-1 SU run after an SEC loss, not to mention 6-3 ATS as a dog despite last week’s result. Take the points. 10* LSU

9* Under Boise State/Wyoming (6:00 ET): I have been waiting for quite some time to play the Under on Boise State. Unfortunately, their last two games were both called off due to COVID. One was going to be a showdown with the only other Mountain West team still unbeaten in  conference play, that being San Jose State. The other cancellation was last Friday vs. UNLV, which would have been a sure win. The reason for my desire to take the Broncos Under the total isn’t just the fact they’ve gone Over in every game. It’s HOW they’ve gone Over - so many non-offensive touchdowns being scored. That can’t continue, can it? 

Case in point; three weeks ago I went with the Under when Boise hosted Colorado State. While the final score was 52-21 (in the Broncos’ favor) and thus went Over by 11.5 points, BSU scored a ridiculous FOUR non-offensive TDs in that game. Had they “only” scored two, that game would have stayed Under. Two of the four non-offensive TDs were returns of blocked punts. They also blocked a FG and returned that for a score! (What is this, the Chargers?) Not to be outdone, the Broncos returned a kickoff for a TD the following week vs. Hawaii. So while the team is averaging 40.0 PPG this season, that comes with a bit of an asterisk. 

Wyoming, who suffered the embarrassment of losing to New Mexico last week, has the defense to keep Boise State in check. They allow just 333.5 YPG, which is top 25 in the country. The Cowboys have allowed 17 points or less three times this season and in their only home game thus far, they held Hawaii to just 7 points. I think the public is going to be VERY tempted to take the Over here with such a “low” number, but it was set that way for a reason. Wyoming could be without its star running back (Xazavian Williams) and down to its third-string QB here. Boise State’s defense has allowed under 4.7 yards per play the L2 games. 9* Under Boise State/Wyoming

8* Troy (3:00 ET): It’s not hyperbole to say last week’s 22-17 win over BYU was the biggest achievement in the history of Coastal Carolina football. The Chanticleers are now 10-0 SU and heading to the Sun Belt Championship Game (next week vs. Louisiana), not to mention maybe some place bigger if they win the next two games. That they were able to beat BYU, as a 10-pt underdog, on such short notice deserves a tip of the cap. But what about this week’s game? It sure feels like a “sandwich spot” and that’s dangerous when laying double digits on the road to a decent team. 

Troy is just 5-5 SU on the year and a money-burning 2-8 ATS. But they are off perhaps their most complete effort of the season, a 29-0 shutout of South Alabama where the defense allowed just 239 total yards. Back in the season opener, I took the Trojans when they rolled to a 47-14 win over Middle Tennessee. In my analysis, I stated I expected this team to improve from last season when it finished just 5-7 SU (three straight 10+ win seasons before that). That hasn’t really materialized, but there’s been some extenuating circumstances. QB Watson has missed time with a rib injury, COVID has interrupted the schedule and there have been three losses by seven points or less.

I just think it is going to be very hard for Coastal Carolina to prevail here by double digits. In addition to the letdown/lookahead nature of the spot, they were actually outgained by BYU last week, 405-366. They needed a tackle at the goal line to win the game. Remember that the Chanticleers were not just picked to finish behind Troy this season, but also LAST in the entire Sun Belt. With Watson back in the lineup last week, Troy more closely resembled the team I expected at the start of this season. This game was originally supposed to be played on November 14th. It being moved to this week is more of an advantage to the home dog. Take the points. 8* Troy

8* Minnesota (12:00 ET): I fully understand that PJ Fleck’s Golden Gophers have fallen short of expectations this season. Furthermore, the team has been hit hard by COVID with 40+ players/staff testing positive and the last two games getting cancelled as a result. As if that wasn’t rough enough, WR Rashod Bateman - arguably the best player on the team - has decided to opt out in order to prepare for the NFL Draft. That all being said, I just feel the number this week at Nebraska is way too high.

Nebraska has looked a lot better the last two weeks, particularly in last Saturday’s 37-27 win at Purdue. The week before, I took them and it was a pretty easy cover as double digit underdogs against Iowa. But this week will mark just the second time all season that the Cornhuskers have been favored to win a game. The first was three weeks ago vs. Illinois and they promptly lost that game - outright - as 17-point chalk. Given the ‘Huskers’ two wins this season are by a combined 17 points, and they were outgained substantially in one of those wins, this is not a good candidate to lay double digits with. 

The last four meetings of these Big 10 West rivals has seen the home team go 4-0. The last three years have all been decided victories. But Minnesota rarely gets blown out under Fleck. One of their three losses this year came by a single point. They too beat Purdue three weeks ago and save for the Iowa game, the offense has been quite productive (40+ pts in both road games). Even without Bateman, I expect the Gophers to score a decent amount here. They are 4-1 ATS L5 as a road underdog while Nebraska is just 1-5 ATS its L6 as a favorite. 8* Minnesota

8* Wake Forest (12:00 ET): Wake Forest boasts an impressive 6-1 ATS record and I’ve been fortunate to cash in on them multiple times. The first time was in a 37-13 LOSS to Clemson. As you probably ascertained, the line for that game (season opener) was quite high. The next time was “more like it” (especially if you’re from Winston-Salem) as the Demon Deacons pulled an outright upset over Virginia Tech, 23-16 as 10.5-point underdogs. Then I took them again vs. North Carolina, which ended up as a 59-53 loss, but they still covered +12.5. 

That North Carolina game seems like FOREVER ago, so I was surprised when I saw it’s the last game Wake Forest has played. It was nearly one month ago to the date. It’s actually the only game they’ve played since October! Despite the long layoff, I expect the team to play well here. The offense, led by QB Sam Hartman, is averaging 39.3 PPG this season. They’ve scored 40 or more four times. They led North Carolina by 21 in the second half. The only other loss besides that and Clemson was by three points to an 8-win NC State team. The Deacons could very easily be on a 6-game SU win streak heading into this game. 

Louisville has also been victimized by some close losses this season. They are 3-7 SU, but four of those losses have been by 7 points or less. Still that didn’t stop HC Scott Satterfield from exploring an offer to take the South Carolina job, which angered fans and I’m sure his players. Unlike Wake Forest, who hosts Florida State next week, this is Louisville’s final game. They are likely not going bowling and may not be too excited to play for a coach that just thought about leaving the program. All three L’ville wins this season have been against pretty bad teams. Don’t see them winning here against what I feel is one of the more underrated teams in the country. 8* Wake Forest

10* Under Pittsburgh/Georgia Tech (7:00 ET): So these ACC rivals were originally going to play last month, but that was nixed because of COVID. I was going to play the Under back then and will still do so now. Interestingly, the Panthers continue to go Over the total as the L2 weeks have seen them defeat Virginia Tech 47-14 and lose to Clemson 52-17. That makes it seven consecutive Overs for them, but I expect that streak to end Thursday mainly because of the opponent. It’s not Virginia Tech’s bad defense or Clemson’ explosive offense that they’ll be facing at Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta. Take the Under. 

Georgia Tech is a team simply playing out the string at this point. The Yellow Jackets are 3-6 and lost last week 23-13 to NC State. I’d be thrilled with a similar final score here, obviously. Georgia Tech’s offense is going to struggle to move the ball this week as they are up against a Pitt defense that leads the ACC in rushing yards allowed. No Panthers’ opponent has gone for more than 156 YPG on the ground this season and the average is just 93.1, which not only leads the conference but is also fifth best in the nation. If that’s not bad enough, Georgia Tech QB Sims has thrown as many INTs as he has TDs and his WR corps is banged up. 

While its year two under HC Geoff Collins, transitioning away from the triple option offense was going to take time at Georgia Tech. They’re just not “there” yet in terms of running a pro-style offense and have been held to 13 pts or fewer in three of their last five games. Pay no mind to the 55 points they scored two weeks ago vs. Duke as that was a crazy, turnover filled game. What we saw last week is more emblematic of the current state of the Yellow Jackets offense and this is the best defense they will have faced in a while. Pitt leads all of FBS with 43 sacks and their offense won’t need to do much here. This was a 20-10 game last season. 10* Under Pittsburgh/Georgia Tech

8* Fresno State (9:00 ET): Gonna go ahead and fade Nevada in the late night spot again as the Wolf Pack showed last week they are not a good team to lay points with. They lost outright on “the Island” (Hawaii), 24-21, trailing for the entire second half. While it was their first loss of the season, three of Nevada’s five victories thus far have come in one possession games and they’ve hardly faced a daunting schedule. Despite the outright loss last week, my power ratings say the Wolf Pack remains overvalued. 

This will be Fresno State’s first game in three weeks. They come in as winners of three straight (also 3-0 ATS) as they’ve predictably bounced back a bit from LY’s disappointing 4-win campaign. (The previous two years saw the Bulldogs go 22-6 SU overall). Over the course of the current 3-game run, FSU has averaged 37.7 points and 486.7 yards. So them getting this many points seems like quite the ideal situation. They are on a 3-1 ATS run vs. Nevada and have won five of the last eight H2H meetings outright. 

Fresno has also played well on the road the last few years, going 9-6 SU and 10-5 ATS. They are 5-2 ATS the L7 times they’ve been an underdog, picking up three outright wins. These Mountain West rivals seem pretty evenly matched to me, so taking the points is a no brainer. Only two of Nevada’s games have been decided by more than two points and those were against UNLV and Utah State, who are a combined 1-10 SU. Something from last week’s analysis I’d like to reiterate is that Nevada’s third down conversion percentage and red zone efficiency are unlikely to be maintained. Fresno State’s defense does an excellent job at getting to the QB. 8* Fresno State

9* Baylor (8:00 ET): Since suffering B2B upset losses at the hands of Kansas State and Iowa State, #11 Oklahoma has really seized control of its destiny in the Big 12. The Sooners have rattled off five consecutive victories, averaging 50.2 PPG in the process. They’ve covered the spread in all five games as well. They were scheduled to go to Morgantown (West Virginia) last weekend, but that game had to be rescheduled for December 12th due to COVID. After such an impressive stretch, I’m not surprised to see OU a bit overvalued this week and don’t be surprised if they come out rusty after the unexpected week off. 

Baylor’s season has very much been the opposite of Oklahoma’s. They’ve won just one time since opening the season with a 47-14 win against lowly Kansas. But all five losses have been relatively close (by 11 pts or fewer) and the Bears did come from behind to down Kansas State last week, 32-31, as QB Charlie Brewer completed 80% of his pass attempts for 349 yards. Brewer also ran for 56 yards and was responsible for four touchdowns. One good sign for Baylor is that they’ve yet to lose the turnover battle in a single game this season and they’ve forced a total of eight turnovers in the L3 games. 

The Bears easily could have a better record than 2-5 SU as they’ve blown leads in three of their losses. That’s a far cry from last season when they were winning all the close games en route to an appearance in the Big 12 Championship Game … vs. Oklahoma. They played OU tough in both meetings last year, losing by a total of just 10 points. Last week’s comeback should give them some much needed confidence and as good as Oklahoma has looked recently, they can’t keep performing at that level every Saturday. Baylor is 9-4 ATS its L13 road games and is 11-5-1 ATS L17 games as the underdog. 9* Baylor

10* California (7:00 ET): Oregon was a big-time fade (-13.5 @ Oregon State) on this end last week. Sure enough, they lost outright in Corvallis by a score of 41-38. I think the initial belief most bettors have when looking at a line like this is “the Ducks aren’t going to lose twice in a row.” But that can be a dangerous mindset to have, especially seeing just how shaky Oregon has been to this point. California, who is 0-3, comes in desperate here. Maybe they don’t follow in Oregon State’s “footsteps” and pull off the outright upset. But they’ll keep it close and at least cover the spread. Take the points. 

Cal isn’t as bad as its record. While they were blown out by UCLA (34-10) in the season opener, go ahead and write that result off as they played that one “impromptu” with a limited roster on a Sunday morning. Since then they’ve lost close to both Oregon State and Stanford, by a combined five points. They had the total yardage edge in both games and last week’s one-point loss to Stanford was BRUTAL as the Bears had the potential game-tying extra point BLOCKED in the final minute. This is a good number to be catching seeing as how Cal is 18-8 ATS as a dog (11 outright wins) under HC Justin Wilcox including 7-3 ATS when taking double digits (four outright wins). 

To all thinking “bounce back” (for Oregon) this week, a Ducks’ defense that gave up 532 yards to Oregon State should give you pause. In their last three games, Oregon has allowed an average of 35.0 points and 471.7 yards. In last year’s 17-7 win at Berkeley, the Ducks faced a Cal team that didn’t have starting QB Chase Garbers (injured). Garbers was 7-0 SU as the starter in 2019 and should have a “big game” here against the porous Oregon defense. Cal could easily be 2-1 SU right now while Oregon is lucky it isn’t 2-2 (as they were +4 in turnovers in a 38-35 win over UCLA two weeks ago). 10* California

8* Tennessee (3:30 ET): Tennessee comes into this game really “down in the dumps” as HC Jeremy Pruitt is firmly on the hot seat in Knoxville. An upset of #6 Florida would do wonders when it comes to saving Pruitt’s job. Not saying that’s going to happen Saturday, but taking the points is the way to go in this heated SEC rivalry where you can “throw records out the window.” If the Volunteers, losers of five in a row SU & ATS, can’t keep this one close at home and off a bye, then Pruitt is likely a “goner.” 

Since suffering its lone defeat of the season, 41-38 at Texas A&M, Florida has WON five in a row. So we’re looking at the complete opposite trajectory of Tennessee. However, with the exception of the big win over Georgia, the Gators have really been beating up on the dregs of the Southeastern Conference. The other four wins have been against: Kentucky, Vandy, Arkansas and Missouri. One more win gets the Gators into their first SEC Championship Game since 2016, likely against #1 Alabama. The thing is I don’t think HC Dan Mullen is looking for any “style points” at this juncture. He just wants the win. 

Tennessee led Auburn 10-0 two weeks ago, which was the last time we saw them. The game really swung on a 100-yard ‘pick-six’ thrown by Vols QB Jarrett Guarantano. There is some speculation that Guarantano is one of the several Tennessee players in quarantine. Because of the two week layoff, many are still expected to play Saturday. Even if Guarantano doesn’t play, look out for freshman QB Harrison Bailey to possibly provide a spark. I know things aren’t looking good in Knoxville and it’s tough to make a case, but look for UT to keep this one closer than expected. Note: Florida has been favored by 17 or more just two times against Tennessee. Both were in Gainesville and they went 0-2 ATS, even losing one outright (2001). Take the points. 8* Tennessee

8* Auburn (12:00 ET): Auburn was clearly outclassed last week in a 42-13 loss to Alabama. But the good news (for them) is that the “Iron Bowl” comes but only once a year. Now they are faced with yet another Top 5 opponent this week in Texas A&M. But the Aggies looked thoroughly unimpressive in a 20-7 win over LSU last weekend in College Station. Even Auburn was able to beat “those Tigers” 48-11. Key here is this game is at Jordan-Hare, which means Auburn QB Bo Nix should play well (he usually does at home). I disagree with the line move as well and think we’re now getting a real solid value on the home dog. 

Auburn has a really strong home vs. road dichotomy this season as they are 4-0 SU here at Jordan-Hare (winning by an average of 17.0 PPG), but just 1-3 SU on the road. Going back to 2016, this will be just the 7th time that the Tigers are catching points at home. They’ve gone 5-1 ATS previously with four outright wins. Despite having lost three times this season, I still consider Auburn a Top 25 team in the country and my own power ratings have this game as a near pick ‘em. Despite being ranked #5 by the committee, Texas A&M is no Alabama (remember they lost to the Crimson Tide by 28 points themselves.

A&M has been just as inconsistent as Auburn this season and it's usually because of the offense. They only barely beat Vanderbilt in the season opener and then last week could only put up 20 on an LSU defense that had REALLY been struggling. Of the two touchdowns they scored, one was by the defense. So the offensive performance was even WORSE than you think as they put up less than 300 total yards and the lone TD scored came on a big 52-yard run. Off their last 10 SEC losses, Auburn is 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS, so history says they are going to play a lot better this week. Take the points. 8* Auburn

8* Over Texas A&M/Auburn (12:00 ET): Auburn should play a lot better this week as they are back home at Jordan-Hare as opposed to facing Alabama in Tuscaloosa. The difference in play from the Tigers at home vs. on the road is quite striking as they are averaging 34.3 PPG here at home and just 19.0 PPG on the road. They’ve put up at least 29 points in every home game thus far and it was just a few weeks ago they hung 48 on an LSU defense that just held Texas A&M to only 20 last week. I like the Over in this matchup.

About that A&M offensive performance last week. They were shockingly held below 300 total yards and to only offensive TD by LSU and that was in College Station. That’s a big warning sign going into this difficult road game, but I hardly expect the Aggies to be shut out Saturday afternoon. Last week was the second lowest-scoring effort of the season and could have had something to do with the unusual layoff (hadn’t played in three weeks) due to COVID. In three of the previous four games, A&M scored more than 40 points.

Therefore, even though the Under is 7-1 in all Auburn games this season (including 5-0 the L5), this number appears to be way too low. Every Texas A&M game since they faced Vanderbilt - the lowest scoring team in the SEC - has had an O/U line of at least 54 points and four of those six games have seen at least 51 total points scored. For Auburn, this is their lowest O/U line since an Arkansas game (won 30-28) that produced their lone Over of the season. Each of the L5 totals have been 51 pts or higher w/ three at 63.5 or higher. This is all about VALUE to me. 8* Over Texas A&M/Auburn

8* Kansas (12:00 ET): If you’ve been betting against Kansas this year, chances are you’ve done quite well for yourself. The Jayhawks currently check in with an 0-7-1 against the spread record and have yet to win a game straight up. The Over is 7-0-1 in their games as they’ve given up an average of 49.8 points. But a brief glimmer of hope appeared last week in the form of QB Miles Kendrick, who came in and completed 11 of 16 pass attempts for 166 yards and two touchdowns. We’d seen Kendrick previously this season, but that relief effort almost assuredly will earn him the starting gig for this Saturday’s game at Texas Tech. 

This is a dangerous number for Texas Tech to be laying this week. (Update: TT coach Matt Wells tested positive for COVID). Sure, Kansas isn’t good. But neither are the Red Raiders, who come in at 3-6 SU and ATS. They are off a narrow loss to Oklahoma State, 50-44, where they covered the 12.5-point spread due to a pair of late scores. While Kansas is universally recognized as the worst team in the Big 12, Texas Tech is definitely the second worst. Their three wins this season have come by a total of 10 points. One of them was against a FCS opponent (Houston Baptist) where they had to stop a 2-point conversion in the final minutes. This is the first time they’ve been favored since that game, which was the season opener. 

Thanks to Kendrick, KU matched its season high in scoring last week with 23 points (against TCU). This week they face a Red Raiders defense that just surrendered 50 points and 539 yards to an Oklahoma State team that was without its top two running backs. I predict the Jayhawks will achieve a new season-high in points this week as Texas Tech is giving up 39.3 points and 470.6 yards per game. As bad as Kansas has been in 2020, it seems improbable that they could go an entire season without covering a game. They allowed THREE non-offensive TDs last week, which won't happen again. Texas Tech doesn’t deserve to be favored by this many points against anybody and remember they are the last team to lose to Kansas (37-34 last season). My power rankings say this number is off by a full TD. Hold your nose and take the points! 8* Kansas

8* Louisiana (8:30 ET): Normally, with the Sun Belt Championship Game (vs. unbeaten Coastal Carolina) on deck, this might be considered a “look ahead” spot for Louisiana. But not with the Ragin Cajuns’ history against Appalachian State. This is a major revenge game for the Sun Belt West Champs as they have lost eight consecutive times to App State, including twice last season. But it “feels” like this is the 1st time Louisiana (who is ranked 24th in the country) is the better team and I’m taking them plus the points Friday night. 

Appalachian State just hasn’t been quite as strong in 2020 compared to past seasons. This will be the first time since 2017 that the Mountaineers WON’T be playing for the conference title. They are just 2-7 ATS this year, though that can be pinned on the large pointspreads they face on a weekly basis. The only two SU losses for ASU this season have come against a pair of unbeaten teams, Marshall and Coastal Carolina, both by double digits. While there’s no shame in either loss (both on the road), those were the only two decent teams the Mountaineers have faced to this point. 

Louisiana also lost to Coastal Carolina, 30-27, with the game decided on a last second field goal. They’ve won five in a row since and while there have been numerous close calls all year long (four wins by 7 pts or less), last week wasn’t one of them as they put up 70 against hideous LA Monroe. Also, the Ragin Cajuns hold a 31-14 win over Iowa State (on the road), which keeps looking better and better as the Cyclones continue their ascent in the Big 12 standings. Louisiana is going to be the more motivated side Friday night. 8* Louisiana

10* North Texas (6:00 ET): This has been a College Football season like none other before it and few things embody that assessment more than the fact Louisiana Tech did not play a single game in November! The Bulldogs last played Halloween night when they “treated” backers to a 37-34 upset of UAB (in overtime) as 12.5-point home underdogs. North Texas can certainly empathize with La Tech’s recent plight as the Mean Green also went a full month without playing a game before getting to take the field each of the last two weeks. But they are the team in better “game shape” heading into this one and I’ll follow the money (line move). 

I should note that my own power ratings actually disagree with the line move here. But I’m disregarding those rankings in this instance as they are obviously unaware of the long layoff for Louisiana Tech. Also, my power rankings have overestimated the Bulldogs before. I made the mistake of taking them in an October home game vs. UTEP, which they won by only 4 points despite being a two touchdown favorite. Louisiana Tech has not outgained a single FBS opponent this season and had dropped four in a row ATS (1-3 SU) before the upset of UAB where they were outgained by 104 yards. The Bulldogs are bottom 20 in the country in total offense, which will be a welcome reprieve for a struggling North Texas defense. 

Believe it or not, but the Mean Green were considered a “sharp side” going into last Saturday’s tilt w/ UTSA, which they promptly lost 49-17 as 1-pt underdogs. Clearly taking sharp money again this week, they hope for a better result now that they’re back in Denton. Like North Texas, La Tech struggles defensively. The difference is they are going to have to contend with an offense that is top 5 in the country, averaging 536.9 YPG! The home team simply has a massive edge offensively in this one. You would not know that by watching North Texas’ last two games, but the last time I took them they put up 52 points and 768 total yards in a blowout win over Middle Tennessee. They are the right side here as LA Tech should not be favored on the road. 10* North Texas

8* Hawaii (11:00 ET): There are only eight teams in College Football currently 5-0 (straight up) or better. One of them is Nevada. Hats off to the Wolf Pack for this start and they are one of three Mountain West teams without a loss. But they really haven’t played anybody. Three of their five wins - UNLV, Utah State and New Mexico - are over teams in the bottom 10 of my personal power rankings (MWC has some BAD teams). They are also 3-0 in games decided by 7 points or less. This week is going to be their toughest test to date. 

Hawaii is just 2-3 SU thus far as they are coming off a home loss last week to Boise State. They did cover the 13-point spread against the Broncos, but the game wasn’t really as close as the final score indicated. The Warriors trailed 33-9 in the third quarter, only to then get things going with the game out of reach. Still, that was just their second game on the island in 2020. Typically, Hawaii has a pretty strong home field edge (13-6 SU L19 home games) and Nevada certainly isn’t as strong as Boise State.

Nevada is just 6-13 ATS its L19 games when laying 3.5 to 7 points on the road. That includes eight outright losses. I think an outright upset is definitely ‘in play’ Saturday night considering the fact Hawaii won 54-3 in Reno last year! Thus far, the Hawaii offense has been a lot more potent at home than on the road. The defense leads the conference in interceptions. Nevada’s defense has had a really high success rate on third down, which very well may not continue. Take the points here. 8* Hawaii

9* Under TCU/Kansas (8:00 ET): Kansas is not having a good year, to say the least. The Jayhawks are 0-7 SU for HC Les Miles and the best they’ve been able to do at the betting window was a push against West Virginia (on 10/17) as a 21-point underdog. Other than that, they are 0-6 ATS. They are also 6-0-1 Over this season, the push coming back in Game #2 vs. Baylor (a game I cashed Baylor). It’s been five straight Overs since with KU giving up a ton of points in the process. Finally, this week they face an opponent that’s probably NOT going to put up a ton of points. TCU comes in averaging just 24.0 PPG. 

Three times this season, the Horned Frogs have scored 14 points or less in a game. The most recent was two weeks ago at West Virginia, a 24-6 loss. In that game, they were held below 300 total yards. They weren’t that much better the week prior against Texas Tech (343 yards) despite putting up 34 points on Texas Tech. They basically had three big offensive plays in that game. There have been 20+ players lost to season-ending injuries and that doesn’t even include COVID. This is a young team too; they have just nine scholarship seniors on the roster. QB Duggan has just 5 TD passes all season. 

TCU figures to score more than “usual” this week, but what about the Kansas offense? The Jayhawks are last in the Big 12 in scoring offense at just 15.1 PPG. (TCU is second worst, for the record). The most points that Kansas has scored in a game all season is 23 (the opener vs. Coastal Carolina) and they’ve been held to 17 pts or less in five of the last six. Three weeks ago, I had an Under on KU that looked to cash, but they scored the ultimate “garbage time” TD (no time remaining), down 62-3. They won’t give up that many this week (as they’re not facing Oklahoma). The two lowest scoring teams in the Big 12 go Under. 9* Under TCU/Kansas

10* Navy (7:00 ET): This has been a down year so far in Annapolis. Some of that was to be expected after the Midshipmen jumped back up to a 11-2 SU record last season (from 3-11 SU in 2018). Let’s also be honest in saying that COVID-19 has affected their “ranks” more than most teams. There were two horrible, early season losses to BYU (55-3) and Air Force (40-7). But other than those, they’ve played pretty well. They’re 3-2 SU otherwise. This will be their first game in four weeks due to the pandemic as they are off three straight cancellations. One of those three is being made up here w/ a Sat night visit from Memphis.

Memphis has also been affected by cancellations in a season where they too were expected to regress. The Tigers are 5-2 SU, which is still good, but consider this was a 12-2 team a season ago that won the American Conference. Their two losses, both on the road, were against SMU and Cincinnati. Since losing 49-10 at unbeaten Cincinnati, Memphis has escaped with a one-point victory over a bad USF team and beaten FCS Stephen F Austin 56-14. They were supposed to face Navy in between those two opponents, but again COVID-19 struck. The offense has been great so far, but you can’t say the same about the defense. 

Year in and year out, Navy usually has one of the nation’s premier rushing attacks. This year has been a little different as the triple-option wasn’t that effective early in the season. However, over the past four games the Middies have run for 251, 288, 166 and 191 yards. Memphis does not have a good run defense, even though the overall numbers say it isn’t that bad. But those numbers, specifically the rush defense, are skewed by LW’s game vs. a FCS team. UCF and Cincinnati were able to average 220+ RYPG.  The Tigers have not won a road game all season and are just 2-8 ATS L10 games. Navy is 12-4 ATS its L16 conference games. Take the points. 10* Navy

8* Penn State (12:00 ET): Penn State and Michigan are a combined 1-9 ATS this season. Even more surprising is they are a combined 2-8 straight up! Both SU wins belong to Michigan, one of those coming last week in triple overtime against Rutgers. So this game has nowhere near the anticipation it normally does. Penn State is 0-5 SU and ATS, which is the worst start in program history (134 years and counting). As shocking as that is, the Nittany Lions are actually outgaining opponents on the season, which is something Michigan cannot claim. I remain less sold on the Wolverines despite them winning last week. 

Were it not for turnovers, we’d probably be talking about Penn State in a much different light. They outgained three of their first four opponents (Ohio State the exception), two of them by 200+ yards! They were only slightly outgained (19 yards) by Iowa last week in a 41-21 defeat, which was the second game in three weeks the Nittany Lions were -3 in turnover differential. I think it’s fair to say this is among the unluckiest teams in all of College Football. They should have at least a couple wins under their belt. 

The big story with Michigan is that they believe they’ve finally found their starting QB. It’s too little, too late to mean anything for 2020, but last week saw Cade McNamara come on in relief for the ineffective Joe Milton and lead the comeback win against Rutgers. But it’s a pretty sorry state of affairs in Ann Arbor when the faithful are celebrating a 3OT win over a team (Rutgers) that’s 1-25 SU its last 26 Big 10 games. The Wolverines were down double digits in the first half last week. Their secondary is just awful as three of the last four opponents have thrown for 323+ yards. 8* Penn State

10* Oregon State (7:30 ET): #15 Oregon heads to Corvallis with an undefeated record, but they were lucky to get by with a 38-35 win over UCLA last weekend. The Ducks got outgained but were the beneficiaries of four Bruins’ turnovers. Their defense definitely proved susceptible to run as it allowed 267 yards on the ground. They are giving up 5.2 yards per carry for the season. In case you didn’t know, Oregon State has one of the top RB’s in the Pac 12, if not the entire country, in Jermar Jefferson. Take the points here.

Jefferson had 196 yards on just 18 carries in last week’s 31-27 win over Cal. That was the Beavers’ first win of the season, but they did cover the 13-point spread the week prior at Washington, losing only 27-21. Jefferson has gone over 100 yards in all three games so far and facing an Oregon defense that is giving up 188 rush yards per game, he should make it 4 for 4 this week. The Ducks have also surrendered a total of 64 points the last two weeks. OSU is 10-3 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season (2-0 this year).

They’ve won outright five times as a dog the last two seasons and they are also 9-3 ATS L12 Pac 12 games, which is second only to Utah in that same stretch. It’s also the 4th best ATS conference record in the country. Oregon is really going to struggle to stop Jefferson and the Oregon State offense here and thus it’s difficult to see them covering a double digit spread on the road. With this being a rivalry game, it’s not like the home team is going to be lacking for motivation. 10* Oregon State

8* North Carolina (3:30 ET): This boils down to the simple fact that North Carolina scores too many points to be catching this many at home. Two weeks ago, the Tar Heels hung 59 points and almost 750 total yards in a wild, come from behind win against underrated Wake Forest. You may recall I successfully faded UNC in that one, but I almost learned the “hard way” at just how explosive the offense is here in Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels scored touchdowns on five consecutive drives across the 3rd/4th quarters and almost covered.

The Heels are averaging 43.1 PPG for the season and have gone over 55 in each of the last two games. They have more pass plays of 40+ yards (12) than every other ACC team. They also lead the conference in yards per play (7.7). While they’ve stumbled twice as favorites this season (to Florida State and Virginia), both of those losses were by just three points. This game will mark the first time in 2020 that Mack Brown’s team is an underdog and it comes at home where they are undefeated and averaging 48.5 PPG.

Notre Dame’s defense has been super thus far as it leads the ACC in scoring. But they’ve yet to face an offense like North Carolina’s. Remember that they played Clemson w/o Trevor Lawrence and still gave up 40 points and almost 500 total yards. Other than that, it’s been Duke, USF, Florida State, Louisville, Pitt, Ga Tech and Boston College. North Carolina isn’t just 2-0 ATS as a home dog since HC Mack Brown returned, they are also 3-0 ATS vs. ranked teams. The Fighting Irish have lost outright four of the last five times they’ve been road chalk of six points or less. Take the points. 8* North Carolina

8* Nebraska (1:00 ET): It’s certainly been an interesting season thus far in Lincoln where Nebraska lost LW to Illinois by a score of 41-23. They were 17-pt favorites in that game. The week prior saw them beat Penn State despite buying outgained by over 200 yards. The week before that they outgained Northwestern (who is still unbeaten), but lost by eight points as SEVEN trips to the red zone yielded only 13 points! Scott Frost is very much on the “hot seat” right now and cannot afford another loss to Iowa. Maybe he does lose again here, but I’m banking on the Cornhuskers covering the spread. Take the points. 

Iowa is back in the Top 25 (currently #24) thanks to a three-game SU/ATS win streak where they’ve averaged 41.7 PPG. But they weren’t really as dominant as you might think in last week’s 41-21 win at Penn State. It was only a 362-343 edge in total yardage. The Hawkeyes not only lost to the same N’western team that got Nebraska earlier in the year, but they also fell here in Iowa City to Purdue. No Iowa team has covered four straight regular season games since the 2004 version. This is a lot of points to be laying in a rivalry game.

Turnovers were a big key for both teams last week. Iowa scored 24 points off four Penn State TO’s while Nebraska coughed it up five times in its loss. Frost is being coy about his QB situation, but that works to our benefit as Iowa can’t be sure about what signal caller to prepare for. Nebraska has lost five straight years to Iowa, but the last two under Frost have both been three point games. I think we’re getting an inflated number here due to the respective results from last week. 8* Nebraska

8* Massachusetts (12:00 ET): UMass could very well be the worst team in all of College Football, but this is just a terrible spot for Liberty to be laying such an extraordinary amount of points. The Flames had their undefeated season extinguished last Saturday at NC State in a gut-wrenching 15-14 loss. QB Malik Willis threw three picks and was 13 of 32 passing. But though they lost straight up, Liberty did keep alive its ATS win streak (now at 6 games) as they were four-point underdogs. That 6-0 ATS run is probably why this number is still so high, but I’m taking the points.

Full disclosure - I’m not going to sell you that UMass is somehow “good.” They’re not. But the Minutemen should have enough pride to stay within the number. Having scored just 12 points through three games is not encouraging. But last week they were up against a very good Florida Atlantic defense. The week before they were facing undefeated Marshall. As ugly as the three losses have been this season, the Minutemen are now 6-2 ATS L8 times taking 31+ points.

Having the bubble “burst” on their unbeaten season puts Liberty in a huge letdown spot this week. Furthermore, they face undefeated Coastal Carolina next week, so the ‘look ahead’ factor is in play as well. This is almost certainly the highest spread in Liberty football history. The Flames have just two wins by more than 21 points this year (one vs. FCS) and three by six points or less. One of those three close victories was against a terrible FIU team. I think UMass can hit double digits this week. 8* Massachusetts

10* Utah State (7:00 ET): OK, this is crazy. New Mexico, who has lost 13 straight games dating back to last year, is FAVORED on the ROAD even though Utah State is off its bye. Now Utah State obviously isn’t very good either. The Aggies are 0-4 SU/ATS thus far and haven’t stayed within 19 points of anybody. But I would argue that they’ve faced the four top teams in the Mountain West. If they are to avoid a winless season, this is their best shot. The same can be said of New Mexico, but there’s just no way the Lobos should be favored by this many against anybody right now. 

New Mexico, also 0-4 SU, has come relatively close to victory twice this season. They lost 39-33 out in Hawaii, covering as 13-pt dogs. Then they only lost by 7 (27-20) to Nevada as 17-pt home underdogs. Both games saw the Lobos grab the early lead only to ultimately fall short. But then there was major regression last week in a 28-0 loss to Air Force. In one of the most stunning sequences in the history of football, Air Force fumbled on three consecutive possessions. Every time New Mexico got the ball (in AFA territory), they’d go on to miss a field goal. Remember that the Lobos aren’t playing home games this year due to COVID-19. This will essentially be their 5th road game in 5 weeks. 

As for Utah State, they got an unexpected bye last week when their game vs. Wyoming got called off. Extra prep time is not something any team should need when facing this New Mexico defense, but the Aggies will take it. After giving up 340+ yards passing each of the first three games, the Lobos then surrendered 356 on the ground to Air Force last week. This will mark the 2nd week in a row I fade New Mexico (had Air Force) as it appears bettors are being lulled into thinking the Lobos are going to get that elusive win. But I must reiterate that when a team has not won in 14 months, they probably should not be favored -- on the road no less. Lots of turmoil at Utah State (coaching change, QB dismissal), but New Mexico is still 1-21 SU in its L22 games vs. FBS opponents! 10* Utah State

8* Over Miss State/Georgia (7:30 ET): Mississippi State has gone Under in five straight, which is something we’re certainly not accustomed to seeing from a MIke Leach coached outfit. If you recall, it was a little over a month ago that I went on the record and stated the Bulldogs were an overrated side after beating LSU 44-34 in the season opener. Sure enough, they haven’t covered since (0-5 ATS) though they did snap a four-game SU losing streak by defeating Vanderbilt 24-17 two weeks ago. 

Mississippi State was supposed to play Auburn last week. But that game didn’t take place due to COVID-19, just like Georgia’s scheduled game vs. Missouri was not played. So both teams are off the unexpected bye this week. Last time we saw UGA was two weeks ago when they were ran off the field by Florida, 44-28. It was the Bulldogs’ second loss in three games and their highly touted defense gave up 41+ in both defeats. The other was against Alabama, who beat Miss State 41-0 earlier this year.

That Alabama loss was the only game where MSU faced a larger spread than this. It obviously didn’t go well and stayed Under. But the total for that game was 64. The first five MSU games all had O/U lines of 56 pts or higher. Facing the Georgia defense means this O/U line will obviously be lower, but the ‘Dawgs can potentially send this one Over almost by themselves -- no matter who starts at QB. The underdog will score enough to ensure this is a comfortable Over. Remember they put up over 600 yards on LSU! 8* Over Miss State/Georgia

9* South Carolina (7:30 ET): We’re getting a GREAT value on South Carolina here after their decision to fire Will Muschamp. Obviously such a move indicates the team is struggling, which they most certainly are, but it’s definitely noteworthy that my own power rankings have this game w/ Missouri rated as a tossup. I don’t think that the Tigers are good enough to be favored by this many on the road against anybody and you can look for the Gamecocks to play inspired ball following the coaching change. Take the points.

These two SEC East rivals have combined to play 12 games this season. Of those 12, only one time has either been favored and it was actually South Carolina (when they crushed Vanderbilt 41-7). So Missouri’s first time being favored in 2020 comes on the road, after a three-week hiatus (COVID) and against a team playing with nothing to lose. Mizzou has lost three games by 19 or more this season, the most recent coming at Florida (41-17) on Halloween. They haven’t played since then and rust could very well be a factor this week. 

South Carolina upset Auburn here in Columbia back on October 17th. That was their last win under Muschamp. After that it’s been three ugly losses with the defense getting torched every time. But Missouri has scored 20 points or less in four of its five games. Again, hardly an ideal candidate to be laying points on the road. South Carolina was one of the few SEC teams to play last week and did score 42 against Ole Miss w/ RB Kevin Harris going for 243 yards and five touchdowns. Anything close to that  will mean an easy cover here and possible outright upset. Missouri has given up 35 or more points in four of its five games. 9* South Carolina

8* Under Va Tech/Pitt (4:00 ET): Pittsburgh is a team we haven’t heard much from lately. That’s because they’ve played just one game in the last three weeks. It was a win, 41-17 over Florida State, which snapped a 4-game SU/ATS losing streak. A streak that did continue w/ that blowout win over the Seminoles was the Panthers going Over the total, now at five straight. This week they are up against a Va Tech team that’s no stranger to high-scoring games this season. But I think the number is too high. 

There was some concern over whether or not this game would even be played due to COVID-19. Then came a Pennsylvania state edict that seemed like it would require all players to wear masks during the game. That was later clarified (on Friday) and no longer will face coverings be required. What we hope is required is some defense. That shouldn’t be a problem w/ Pitt, whose defense leads the country with 38 sacks this season. The Panthers allow less than 300 total YPG and only 79 YPG on the ground (just 2.2 YPC!).

That stout run defense will come in handy against Va Tech RB Khalil Herbert, who has been banged up recently. The Hokies are coming off B2B close losses to Miami and Liberty, two home games that they probably should have won. On the bright side, they did just hold a very potent Miami offense to 25 points. The Hurricanes had only 13 on the board late in the 3Q. Pitt’s offense, even w/ QB Pickett back, is nowhere near as good as Miami’s. Interestingly enough, Va Tech’s defense is #2 in the country (behind Pitt) in sacks. I think that the respective defensive fronts will rule this game. 8* Under Va Tech/Pitt

10* Wisconsin (3:30 ET): Right now there is a lot of value on the 10th ranked Wisconsin. I’ve got them 4th in my own power rankings. The reason for the value is they’ve only played two games, so the pollsters are going to wait to move them up the rankings. But the Badgers have made the most of the two opportunities they’ve gotten, first destroying Illinois 45-7 and then dealing Michigan its worst home loss in more than three-quarters of a century, 49-11 last week. This team is a legit CFP contender. 

I refuse to say the same about Northwestern, even though they are 4-0 SU and ranked #19 in the country. While my own power ratings say Wisconsin is underrated right now, they have the exact opposite read on Pat Fitzgerald’s Wildcats. The reason being N’western has three one-score wins, two of which saw them get outgained. They have relied heavily on a defense that is 11th overall in yards allowed, though two weeks ago that unit was very much “bend, but don’t break” as it allowed Nebraska to get into the red zone SEVEN different times, only to give up 13 points. I look for the Wisconsin offense to make them pay this week. 

The Badgers can also play defense. They held Illinois and Michigan to an average of 218.5 YPG. Though only two games, that average would place Paul Chryst’s team #1 in the country in total defense. This is only the 6th time since 2018 that a battle of ranked teams has seen the visitors favored by a TD or more. The previous five instances have seen the road fave go a perfect 5-0 ATS. Also, favorites have gone 14-5-1 ATS in all Top 25 matchups this season. I cashed a road favorite last week in the Big 10 (Indiana) and plan on doing the same here. 10* Wisconsin

8* Over Georgia St/South Alabama (3:30 ET): South Alabama has gone Under in each of its last five games, but I think a matchup against Georgia State will help buck that particular trend. While its definitely true that Georgia State struggled to move the ball in losses against two of the Sun Belt’s heavyweights, Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State, their offene has performed VERY well otherwise. Those “other” four games have seen the Panthers score at least 31 points every time out, three times scoring 49 or more.

  In fact, Georgia State started out the year by going Over in each of its first four games. I went Under when they faced Coastal Carolina and despite the Panthers giving up 51 points in that game, it was a win for me and my clients as Georgia State “forgot to score” (got shutout). That loss isn’t really indicative of where the Panthers “are at,” although they have given up 34 or more points five times this season including 50 or more on two different occasions. You can usually count on it being a high-scoring game when Georgia State is involved.

South Alabama’s season began with a very rare road win over Southern Miss (32-21). Since then they are just 2-5 with the two wins coming against La Monroe and Texas State, both of whom are awful. In four of their five losses, the Jaguars have been held to 17 points or less. But that shouldn’t be the case here facing the suspect Georgia State defense. They are due for an Over and it should come here against a team that has twice gone Over a total of 70.0 this season!  8* Over Georgia State/South Alabama

8* Rice (2:00 ET): Two teams that have felt the brunt of COVID-19 cancellations are Rice and North Texas. November is rapidly coming to a close and these two C-USA rivals have combined to play just seven games. Rice has only played twice! The Owls are 1-1 w/ a 30-6 win (over Southern Miss) the last time they took the field. But that win came all the way back on Halloween. North Texas is 2-3 SU, but hasn’t played since October 17th (!) when they drubbed Middle Tennessee 52-35 as a 3.5-point road dog. 

I had North Texas in that drubbing of Middle Tennessee. But as I said in the writeup, Middle Tennessee was as bad as any team in the country at that point of the season and did not deserve to be favored against anybody. The Southern Miss team that Rice beat for its only win is also very bad, but don’t tell that to North Texas, who lost to the Golden Eagles 41-31 back on October 3rd. The Mean Green defense has given up 31 or more points to every opponent this season, including FCS Houston Baptist. They are allowing 44.2 PPG overall, a frightening number for a team that comes in favored this week. 

Don’t expect all the off time to help North Texas here as they are 0-6 both straight up and against the spread after an off-week. With more than a month having elapsed between games, the Mean Green will be rusty here. Rice, who is 9-4 ATS its L13 road games, has put up 64 points in two games and its loss came in OT after a missed FG that was a “quadruple doink.” Their defense did not allow Southern Miss in the red zone the entire game. It was a 20-14 Owls’ win in LY’s meeting and I’ll grab the points here. 8* Rice

10* Air Force (9:30 ET): I disagree with the midweek line move here. New Mexico is not only 0-3 SU this season, they have lost 12 in a row going back to LY! The vast majority of those 12 straight losses have been by double digits. While they’ve been close each of the L2 weeks, losing by only 6 to Hawaii and by 7 to Nevada, the Lobos still have a LONG way to go to get back to respectability. The fact that QB Tevaka Tuioti missed last week’s game with a concussion and is questionable to return here does them no favors. This is also UNM’s third “true” road game in four weeks and last week’s “home game” was played in Vegas.

Air Force started its season before every other Mountain West team. Back on October 3rd, they opened the season with a 40-7 beatdown of Navy (as 6.5-pt underdogs). But, like New Mexico, the Flyboys are winless in MWC play. They lost a low-scoring game (17-6) at San Jose State and then a high-scoring game (49-30) here in Colorado Springs to Boise State. But while New Mexico is playing for a 4th consecutive week, the AFA has been off the past two weekends. Scheduled games against Army and Wyoming were cancelled due to COVID-19.

Prior to the B2B losses to open conference play, Air Force was actually on a 9-game win streak! That’s obviously a far cry from the form flashed by New Mexico over the last year. This is the game where the Falcons get their running game on track. New Mexico has yet to face an opponent that ran the ball more than 28 times. Air Force could double that number of attempts here. They lead the country in rush offense (330 YPG), averaging 5.9 yards per carry. The L2 meetings have seen the AFA offense gain 1,163 total yards against the Lobos defense. 10* Air Force

8* Syracuse (7:00 ET): Louisville isn’t as bad as its 2-6 (SU) record as they’ve outgained their opponent in three of the last four losses. The only one of those four losses where the Cardinals DIDN’T have the edge in total yards was against Notre Dame and that ended up being only a five-point loss (12-7!) in South Bend. Considering that they are finding ways to lose games they should probably win, the Cardinals probably shouldn’t be this large of a favorite against anybody. They simply turn the ball over too much (-12 TO margin) to justify this kind of price range.

Syracuse probably isn’t much better than its 1-7 SU record, but they did stay close two weeks ago against Boston College, losing only 16-13. They’ve stayed within tonight’s number against most of their opponents, save for the toughest matchups like Clemson and North Carolina. Injuries and a tough schedule have done the ‘Cuse no favors thus far, but they are coming off a bye here certainly helps. I believe they’ll be able to move the ball and score on a Louisville defense that’s giving up nearly 30 points and 400 yards per game. Freshman QB JaCobian Morgan looked decent enough in his first career start (vs. BC) and should perform better here w/ the added prep time.

After rocketing up to an 8-5 SU record last season, Louisville was a pretty obvious candidate for regression in 2020. They were just 2-10 SU two years ago and everything that went right for them LY has gone wrong this season. As alluded to above, turnover margin has been one of the biggest reasons for the decline. But they can’t fix the fact that RB Javian Hawkins has opted out to concentrate on the 2021 NFL Draft. WR Tutu Atwell, who missed the 31-17 loss to Virginia last week, may also miss tonight’s game. I just don’t see the justification for the spread being this large. L’ville is just 6-14-1 ATS its L21 ACC games. 8* Syracuse

8* Tulane (7:30 ET): Tulsa (#25) is off to a 4-1 SU start and ranked for the first time since 2010. That’s quite the cause for celebration. This is a program that won a combined NINE games the last three seasons. I’ve cashed them two different times this season. The first was plus the points against Oklahoma State in the season opener. That’s their only SU loss. The other was a 42-13 beatdown of USF. But there are two factors that have me looking to fade the Golden Hurricane this week: 1. They’ve been living quite dangerously (falling behind early) and 2. This is their shortest turnaround between games this season.

This is the second straight week Tulane faces the #25 ranked team in the country. But this time they will have to hit the road as underdogs. Still, the way the Green Wave dismantled Army last week has me looking to take the points here. The 38-12 win as 3.5-pt chalk on Saturday was Tulane’s third straight win (all by 17+ points) and fifth straight cover. Normally, I might look to fade a team on such a hot streak, but it certainly looks as if the visitors aren’t getting the proper respect this week. 

Three of Tulsa’s four wins this year have seen them rally back from 14+ point deficits. They trailed UCF by 18, East Carolina by 14 (miracle win) and then SMU by 21 (here at home) on Saturday. It’s hard to pull the proverbial “rabbit out of the hat” every week. Furthermore, the Golden Hurricane had played just twice in 41 days prior to the upset of SMU. Now they’ve got just five days in between games. The only other time this season they had to play on “normal” or short rest was the East Carolina game where they were lucky to win 34-30 and never came close to covering the 17-point spot. Because of its ranking, Tulsa may very well be overconfident entering this week. That’s a mistake against a Tulane team who led by double digits in two of its four losses. A third loss came in overtime. Taking the points is the way to go here in what should be a good game. 8* Tulane

10* Ball State (7:00 ET): A case could be made that Northern Illinois actually outplayed Buffalo in a season opening 49-30 loss. After all, they outgained the Bulls 397-357. But they were undone by a -5 turnover margin in that game. Unfortunately, there was no “explaining away” the terrible 40-10 loss the Huskies suffered last week to Central Michigan. That game saw them get held to just 224 total yards. Making the 0-2 SU/ATS start even worse is the fact both losses were in DeKalb. Now NIU is set to hit the road for the 1st time in 2020. 

Ball State is also 0-2 ATS, but they did win SU last week, defeating Eastern Michigan 38-31 in come from behind fashion. That was a stark contrast to the previous week’s result, also a 38-31 final, where they blew a 1st half lead and fell to Miami. Unlike Northern Illinois, the Cardinals have had the total yardage edge in both of their games this season. They rolled up well over 500 yards last week. They have a significant offensive edge in this matchup and I just don’t see how the underdog keeps up. 

Northern Illinois used to be the standard-bearer in the MAC. But the Huskies have fallen on hard times and should now be considered one of the weaker teams in the entire country. Meanwhile, Ball State is a program on the rise under HC Mike Neu and is going to be one of the better MAC teams this season. Something that’s even more damning for Northern Illinois’ 0-2 start is that their defense leads the country in 3rd down conversion rate, which is highly unlikely to continue. Ball State’s offense will make them pay on third down and move the ball w/ ease, thus dropping NIU to 3-14-1 ATS off a DD loss at home. 10* Ball State

10* Under Buffalo/Bowling Green (7:00 ET): Bowling Green is looking like it might be the worst team in the country this season. If not them, it’s Akron (another team from the MAC), who has lost 19 in a row. Last week saw the Falcons get drubbed 62-24 by Kent State. They are now 0-2 SU/ATS as they lost their season opener 38-3 to Toledo. This matchup with 2-0 Buffalo, perhaps the MAC’s best team, is less than ideal. The Bulls have covered 9 of their last 10 games overall (beat Miami 42-10 last week) and have covered six straight seasons against Bowling Green. Despite the huge spread here, I almost laid the points. But that doesn’t seem prudent. Instead it’s a play on the total that needs to be made.

Bowling Green has given up 100 points in two games. But as bad as the defense has been, the offense might be worse. They ranked 128th in scoring last season (16.0 PPG) as well as 124th in yards per play and 120th in yards per game. There was some hope w/ Boston College transfer Matt MacDonald coming in to play QB, but he’s been HORRIBLE, completing only 14 of his 50 pass attempts (not a misprint!). The Falcons just aren’t going to score many points Tuesday against a decent Buffalo defense.

That brings us to the Buffalo offense. As mentioned above, it was a very impressive 42-10 win over Miami last week. That followed a 49-point effort in the opener at Northern Illinois, but they had a lot of short TD drives in that game because of five NIU turnovers. Even if Buffalo puts up 40 again this week (very possible), I still see this game going Under. The last two years have seen Buffalo beat BG by scores of 49-7 and 44-14. It’s probably going to be a similar score tonight, which would work just fine. Bowling Green is 14-5 Under L19 games. 10* Under Buffalo/Bowling Green

9* Over Northwestern/Purdue (7:30 ET): I’m still very unhappy how last week’s Nebraska-Northwestern game turned out. I had Nebraska plus the points and judging by the fact they outgained N’western 442-317, you would have thought they’d at least covered. Incredibly, the Cornhuskers were in the red zone SEVEN times and came away with just 13 points. They missed a field goal and had two costly interceptions before turning it over on downs (inside the 15) on the drive that decided the game. Nine times in the game Nebraska crossed midfield. So let’s be careful before anointing Northwestern’s defense as anything special, okay? 

Unlike Nebraska, Purdue should be able to cash in its scoring chances as it hosts the Wildcats this week. The Boilermakers have scored 24 and 31 points in their two games thus far, both of them wins. Last week they were set to face Wisconsin, but COVID 19 cancelled that matchup. So with an extra week to prepare for the Northwestern defense, I think Purdue’s offense will do well Saturday night. I’d like the chances even more if WR Rondale Moore and RB King Doerue (both gametime decisions) suited up for the 1st time this season. But consider that a luxury if one or both do. Over is the play here regardless. 

In Moore’s absence, David Bell has put up big numbers with 22 catches for 234 yards. (Remember, that’s just two games). These teams have combined to go 5-0 Under this season, but that trend is about to end. Northwestern could get its starting RB (Isaiah Bowser) back from an injury, again something that should be considered a luxury if he does suit up. The Wildcats did put up 43 points in the season opener (vs. Maryland) so they are more than capable of a big offensive game themselves. Over is 7-3-1 in N’western’s L11 games as a road favorite while it’s also 15-5 in Purdue’s L20 as a home dog. 9* Over Northwestern/Purdue

10* Baylor (4:00 ET): For much of this year, my power rankings have indicated that Baylor has been underrated (by the oddsmakers) while Texas Tech is being overrated. Twice I’ve cashed Baylor in 2020. The first time was the opener (against Kansas), a game which they won 47-14. The second was last week in a 38-31 road loss to Iowa State where they were taking double digits. That was the Bears’ 4th consecutive defeat (Kansas is their only win), but this line “jumping the fence” seems like a strong indicator that losing streak is about to come to an end. 

Texas Tech has spurned me on two different occasions this season - against Texas (covered as 17-pt home dogs) and against West Virginia (covered as 2.5-pt underdogs). While the call on Texas was certainly bad (game went to OT), I still stand by the play on WVU, who outgained the Red Raiders by around 100 total yards. By that same standard, the Red Raiders probably feel like they got “the short end of the stick” last week vs. TCU where total yardage was pretty close to even, but they lost by 18 thanks to giving up a long TD run (by the TCU QB) late in the game (that cost them the cover). 

Texas Tech has just two wins this year, the one vs West Virginia and one vs. FCS Houston Baptist, which was the season opener and saw them allow 600 total yards. Those two wins were by a total of nine points. The win over Houston Baptist required they stop a late 2-pt try (won 35-33) and a late defensive TD was the difference in the 34-27 win over WVU. The Red Raiders’ defense is giving up 107 YPG more than Baylor’s is. The Bears’ four losses have all been by 11 points or less and to teams better than Texas Tech. They led by 2 TD’s LW in Ames and have covered 8 of their last 12 road games. 10* Baylor

8* Over UTEP/UTSA (3:00 ET): The big surprise is that both of these teams come into Saturday sporting .500 records. That may not sound like much, but UTEP and UTSA aren’t exactly what you’d consider traditional powerhouses. In the three seasons before this one, UTEP went 2-34 straight up! They’ve already exceeded that three-year win total with a 3-3 SU start to 2020. UTSA hadn’t been nearly as bad as UTEP, but has already matched LY’s win total by going 4-4 SU. They are the favorites here and likely to win. 

Some context should probably be provided with UTEP’s 3-3 SU start. The Miners have beaten two FCS programs (Stephen F Austin, Abilene Christian) and a LA Monroe team I consider to be among the bottom five in the FBS. On a more positive front, the offense has averaged 25.3 points and 384 yards the L3 games (all vs. FBS foes). Their two highest scoring games of the season (31 vs. LA Monroe and 28 vs. Charlotte) have come during that stretch. Hopefully, the fact they haven’t played in three weeks (COVID-19) doesn’t slow them down. This will also be the Miners’ 4th consecutive road game. 

What initially caught my eye here is the fact UTSA has gone Under in five straight games. They last played two weeks ago and lost 24-3 to Florida Atlantic. But the Roadrunners also gave BYU their toughest game (27-20) and have been involved in three other games where at least 53 total points were scored. That’s why I think this number is too low. UTSA games are averaging 51.3 PPG this season (51-48 win over Texas State helps) while UTEP games average 45.2. This is the lowest O/U line for either team this season. The Over is 13-3 in UTEP’s last 16 November games. 8* Over UTEP/UTSA

8* Kentucky (12:00 ET): At first glance, the idea of laying this many points with Kentucky didn’t really intrigue me. After all, this is a team that’s scored a total of just 13 points its last two games and has struggled to move the ball all season. But they are facing a winless Vanderbilt team in Lexington this week and coming out of a bye. If ever there was a “get right” game for the Wildcats, it would be this one right here. At the start of the season, this was projected to be one of Mark Stoops’ best teams in his eight years in Lexington and my own power rankings say UK should be about a FOUR touchdown favorite! 

While the Kentucky offense - particularly the passing game - has had its fair share of struggles, there are no such issues with the defense, which actually leads the SEC in scoring (only 19.0 PPG allowed). The Wildcats’ D is giving up just 5.0 yards per play and 355.3 yards per game (3rd best in SEC). They held Georgia to just 14 points, Tennessee to 7 and Mississippi State to 2! They should have no problem stopping a Vanderbilt offense whose highest scoring game - 21 points - came in a 33 point defeat. The Commodores are averaging just 12.8 PPG this season, which is obviously last in the SEC.

Last week Vandy probably should have beaten Mississippi State (they lost 24-17), but five turnovers were costly in a game they outgained the opposition 478-204. Don’t go reading too much into that defensive effort though. It came on the heels of the Commies allowing 54 points and 641 total yards the previous week to Ole Miss. They trailed Miss State 17-0 in the 1st half and turnovers have been an issue all year in Nashville as right now Vandy is a SEC worst -8 in TO margin, having given it away at least twice in every game. Kentucky’s defense has forced 12 turnovers in the L4 games. Whoever is in at QB for the Wildcats - Wilson or Gatewood - will be able to move the ball against this lousy Commodores’ defense. Kentucky has beaten Vandy four straight times and are 10-2 ATS L12 home games. 8* Kentucky

8* Wake Forest (12:00 ET): The Demon Deacons have been kind to me on two different occasions this season, both times as an underdog. The first was the season opener vs. Clemson where they covered a very large spread. The second was facing Virginia Tech and that time they pulled off the outright upset. Having now won four straight and coming off a bye, the Deacons are once again getting points this week and I’m going to look to make it 3 for 3 with them. My power ratings comfortably have this as a one-score game. 

Last week marked the second time this season that North Carolina bounced back from a loss in impressive fashion. They crushed rival Duke, winning 56-24 as an 11.5-point favorite. But sustaining success has been a problem for the Tar Heels. Since opening 3-0, they’re just 2-2 SU the L4 games w/ losses to Florida State (as a 17-point favorite) and Virginia (as an 8-point favorite). While those two losses were both by just a field goal and on the road, none of the teams UNC has beaten this year are as good as Wake Forest. At least according to my power rankings.

This matchup is a lot more even than the odds seem to indicate. Furthermore, Wake Forest has been a lot more efficient in the red zone and takes better care of the football. Take away the game vs. NC State (where they were +4 in turnovers) and North Carolina is “in the red” when it comes to TO margin this season. Wake is not only +14 in TO margin (!), but also rested and comes in with a balanced offense averaging 41.3 points over its L4 games. North Carolina has its bye next week then plays host to Notre Dame, so they could be looking past this game. Wake Forest is too good to be anyone’s “look ahead,” so I’m taking the points. 8* Wake Forest

8* Indiana (12:00 ET): Michigan State does have a rather shocking outright win over Michigan to its credit. But Sparty has otherwise demonstrated that they are NOT a very good team in its first year post-Mark Dantonio. There’s a reason they were three touchdown underdogs against the Wolverines. The previous week (season opener) they’d lost by 11 - here at home - to Rutgers. Then last week, after the upset in Ann Arbor, the Spartans were blown out 49-7 at Iowa. Right now, I’ve got them rated as the 2nd WORST team in the Big 10 (ahead of only Illinois). 

 After years of disappointing results, it finally feels like Indiana is breaking through. The Hoosiers are off to a 3-0 start and have beaten Penn State and Michigan. While this might “feel” like an opportunity to fade them, the truth is they are just that much better than Michigan State right now and deserve to be favored on the road. I mentioned above that I’ve got MSU rated as the 2nd worst team in the Big 10. Well, IU is rated third BEST (behind only Ohio State & Wisconsin) and the pollsters are in agreement having them in the Top 10 in the country for the 1st time since 1968! 

Indiana QB Michael Penix Jr is 8-1 SU as a starter, the lone loss coming last year to Michigan State. It certainly seems as if the Hoosiers won’t be lacking for motivation Saturday in East Lansing as HC Tom Allen called this "a trophy game (Ol’ Brass Spitoon!) for us here that we have placed a high value on.” Allen has never beaten MSU in three previous tries. Michigan State’s offense is pretty lousy w/ QB Lombardi tossing THREE interceptions last week and the running game averaging just 78.3 yards (last in Big 10). My own power rankings call for a two touchdown difference in this one. 8* Indiana