10* Ohio State (3:30 ET): While this is technically a "revenge game" for the Buckeyes, who lost 24-21 (as 19-point favorites!) in State College last year, one could make the argument that it is the Nittany Lions that come into this year's meeting w/ more of a legitimate gripe as they were the one left out of LY's playoff while Ohio State made it (despite the H2H result) only to get promptly smashed by eventual Nat'l Champ Clemson. So, to me, the revenge factor may be overstated here. However, situationally, is where I find Ohio State to have a the big edge in this Big 10 showdown. They were off last week while Penn State was busy winning a primetime showdown w/ Michigan. That win over Michigan came a lot easier than most (myself included) expected, which I feel has caused a bit of an overreaction by the marketplace. Yes, Penn State is the unbeaten team here, but I still actually have OSU rated higher in my own personal power rankings. I was hoping to get the Buckeyes laying less than a touchdown at the Horseshoe on Saturday and the oddsmakers have granted my wish!

Ohio State HC Urban Meyer is an incredible 20-1 SU in his coaching career off a bye w/ five of those victories coming against ranked foes. Keep in mind that it was Penn State off a bye last week against Michigan, so the bye week (especially this time of year) definitely can play a huge role. And yes, Meyer is also 24-10-1 ATS in his career in revenge spots including 10-0 straight up his L10 w/ the average margin of victory coming by an impressive 13 points per game. Let us not forget either that OSU led Penn State last year 12-0, but lost on a blocked FG return for touchdown. The Nittany Lions weren't even ranked at the time! The win has jumpstarted an incredible run where they've lost only one time (Rose Bowl vs. USC) and they're an utterly insane 16-1 ATS their last 17 games. That lone non-cover was the Iowa game earlier this year where they needed a last second TD, but even then they had a 579-273 edge in total yards. But isn't a 16-1 ATS run getting close to a "tipping point" where we'll start to see James Franklin's team start to give some back? I think so.

Earlier I mentioned that I still have OSU rated higher in my own power rankings, so I'm not surprised by the line here - at all - and as I alluded to, it should probably be north of a touchdown. Most will disagree w/ me, which is where the (rare) value on the Buckeyes comes into play. Since getting beaten by Oklahoma in the second game of the season, OSU has rolled to five consecutive wins by an average of 42 points per game. QB JT Barrett has certainly gotten back on track w/ a 21-1 TD-INT ratio. He has guided the Buckeyes' offense to four straight games of 54+ points and 500+ total yards. OSU also has a defense to match Penn State's and of course the homefield advantage to boot. 10* Ohio State

8* North Carolina (12:00 ET): Let's just go-ahead and restart "The U is back!" narrative as the 'Canes have emerged as a "darkhorse" playoff contender simply by virtue of still being unbeaten in late October. But as you know, not all unbeatens are created equal and in this case, Miami is simply not at the level of an Alabama or Penn State, or even several one-loss teams (such as Ohio State or Clemson) for that matter. But tip your cap to the job Mark Richt is doing down in Coral Gables as there's a decent chance his Hurricanes will finish the regular season unbeaten thanks to avoiding Clemson, Louisville and NC State entirely, while drawing both Va Tech and Notre Dame at home. This week's game likely will NOT threaten their unblemished won-loss record, but it is a tricky spot as it comes right before those B2B home dates w/ Va Tech and Notre Dame. Can we say look ahead?

While Miami is exceeding expectations in year two under Richt, North Carolina has clearly fallen off a cliff for Larry Fedora in 2017. After winning 11 and 8 games respectively the last two seasons, the Tar Heels returned very little of the offense that drove last year's team (most notable loss was QB Mitchell Trubisky) and the result has been a rather ugly 1-7 SU and ATS start w/ the lone win and cover coming at Old Dominion's expense. The nadir of the season may have been last week as they ran into a rested Va Tech team in Blacksburg and got beat 59-7. But that creates some real value on the Tar Heels, who are back home, this week. Injuries are another reason UNC has struggled this year. But w/ little left to play for, I assume they'll treat this Homecoming affair like a bowl game and not roll over for their unbeaten visitor. 

Miami's unbeaten record is not w/o some very close calls, in fact, their previous three wins have been by a total of 13 points! Last week, they outlasted Syracuse 27-19 (were -18) down in Hard Rock Stadium where they obviously benefited from four Orange turnovers. The week prior was a 25-24 win over Georgia Tech on a last second FG, a game they trailed almost the whole way. Preceding that was another last second win, against Florida State. Following so many close calls and with two much bigger games on deck, it will be easy for "The U" to overlook this game and that could be mean trouble given that the visiting team is on a 5-12 SU run in the rivalry. Last year though, UNC won on the road, 20-13 as a six-point dog. The year before that, right here in Chapel Hill, the Hurricanes lost 59-21. I look for UNC to stay within a generous number. 8* North Carolina

10* Under Tulane/Memphis (8:00 ET): "It was the best of times/It was the worst of times" wrote Charles Dickens back in 1859. But for 2017 Memphis football, it was not a "Tale of Two Cities," but rather a "Tale of Two Halves" last week in Houston. Trailing 17-0 at halftime, the (now) 24th ranked Tigers exploded after the break, scoring touchdowns on six consecutive drives en route to a rather stunning 42-38 road win. That put them in the driver's seat in the AAC West at 6-1 overall and 3-1 in league play. They'll be favored in all remaining regular season affairs and if they take care of business, that means a likely date w/ either UCF or USF in the Conference Championship Game where a spot in a New Year's Six Bowl Game will almost certainly be on the line.

Tulane provides Memphis' opposition this Friday night at the Liberty Bowl and they'll be looking to pick up the pieces following B2B losses for the second time this year. The Green Wave are 3-4 SU overall for 2nd year HC Willie Fritz, who has installed the option offense here. Three of Tulane's four losses came against opponents that have spent time in the Top 25 this year: Navy, Oklahoma and USF, the latter two obviously still residing there. So this will be no "walk in the park" for favored Memphis, despite what the line may say. That said, while last week saw the Green Wave cover, it only after falling behind USF 34-7 in the second half. Scoring the game's final three touchdowns made the final score a lot closer than it ought to have been and that came on the heels of the team's lone "ugly" loss this year, 23-10 at FIU, two weeks ago. 

This will be Tulane's fourth road game of the season and they have yet to break 21 points in any of the previous ones. In fact, the team's scoring drops nearly in half (15.0 PPG on the road vs. 28.4 PPG overall) and total yardage per game drops down to 264 (compared to 385.3 YPG overall). Memphis doesn't exactly have the most stout defense in the AAC, but they did face Navy less than two weeks ago, which at least familiarizes them w/ the triple option. The Memphis offense has obviously put up some big numbers thus far, but just as they won't be as bad as they were in the 1H vs. Houston last week, they also won't be as efficient as they were in the 2H. Six of the past seven meetings between these teams have stayed Under, none of them seeing more than 60 total pts scored. This will also be the highest O/U line for any of those meetings. It's also - pretty easily - the highest O/U line for any Tulane game this season. The Green Wave have not topped 14 pts against the Tigers in any of the last three years. 10* Under Tulane/Memphis

8* Stanford (9:00 ET): Following disappointing B2B losses to USC and San Diego State, Stanford was just 1-2 SU on the season and in danger of becoming irrelevant. But this remains a Top 20 team in the country, at least in my opinion, and we've started to see what they are capable of w/ a four-game win streak here in Pac 12 play. Two Saturdays ago, the Cardinal took full advantage of Oregon being depleted and won in a 49-7 rout. Now they'll face the Ducks' "Civil War" rival, who is still winless against FBS competition this year and already made a coaching change. That would be Oregon State, the perennial dreg of the conference who has lost seven straight times to Stanford. I'm usually not one to lay a lot of points on the conference road, but I'll make an exception here. 

Over the course of its four-game win streak, Stanford has outscored its opponents (all of whom are stronger than Oregon State) by an average of nearly 20 PPG. Now that number is obviously skewed by what they did against Oregon, but note the only game during the win streak that was close was the one at Utah, who was rested when the Cardinal were not. Considering Oregon State is already allowing over 200 YPG on the ground this season (and given up 18 rushing TDs) and Stanford has the nation's leading rusher (Bryce Love), this looks to be a mismatch of epic proportions. Now I'm well aware Love is listed as a game-time decision here, but the notion of him and his 10.3 YPC average going against this Beavers' defense is too enticing too pass up. He already has NINE runs of 50+ yards this season and got to rest in the 2H vs. Oregon due to the lopsided nature of the contest. QB Keller Chryst also had his best game since the opener, completing 15 of 21 pass attempts, three of them for touchdowns. 

Love or not, another reason to like Stanford here is their defense facing an OSU offense that averages almost 50 fewer YPG rushing than Love does by his lonesome! Oregon State did play inspired in its last game, a 36-33 loss to Colorado (as 9.5-pt underdogs) here in Corvallis. But that came right after the surprising resignation of HC Gary Andersen. While interim HC Corey Hall has now had more than a full week to implement his own gameplan, he simply doesn't have a whole lot to work with here. The loss to Colorado marked the first time since beating FCS Portland State that the Beavers finished within 28 points of the opposition. They opened the year 0-5 ATS and are being outscored by 22.5 PPG. Whether it's Love's questionable status or something else, we're getting about nearly a full TD of value with this line on the Cardinal, at least according to my own power rankings. 8* Stanford

8* Colorado (10:45 ET): It's "Pac 12 after dark" and neither of these teams come in playing as well as they'd hoped. Washington State is of course off a horrific 37-3 loss at Cal last Friday, a game which saw them turn the ball over SEVEN times and get dropped from the ranks of the unbeaten. Fact is, I was never really that high on Mike Leach's team anyway. Now the same could be said for Colorado coming into this year as I always viewed LY's run to the Conference Championship Game as a bit fraudulent. The Buffs were able to take advantage of a "down year" in the Pac 12 South and just about everyone had them regressing in 2017. Sure enough, seven games into the season and they've already equaled the number of regular season losses (3) from last year. They've even been a big disappointment at the betting window, covering just one time since a season-opening 17-3 win over in-state rival Colorado State. 

Disappointing as the season has been so far in Boulder, I see some pretty significant value here w/ the Buffs. As discussed in the analysis last week for plays against Michigan and Auburn, there always seems to be some value in targeting Top 25 teams off a SU loss as the majority of bettors are all too eager to call for the proverbial "bounce back." But in the case of Wazzu, I see not much reason to expect any kind of significant bounce back this week. While they did open the season 6-0 SU, that included close wins here in Pullman over Boise State (trailed by 21 in the fourth quarter and won in 3 OT's!) and USC (who was down three starting offensive lineman). The rest of the schedule has been quite soft to say the least and they got to play Oregon when the Ducks were really banged up. Last year in Boulder, the Cougars fell 38-24 to the Buffaloes as five-point underdogs. I know Colorado isn't as good this year, but I'm not sure I can get on board w/ the pretty massive swing we've seen w/ the line in less than 12 months time.

CU's last three games, two of them losses, have all been decided by four points or less. Yes, they did give up 33 points to an inspired Oregon State team (playing for interim HC) last week, but the defense still ranks fifth in the Pac 12 both against the pass and the run. Cal was able to hold Wazzu to just 365 total yards last week w/ an inferior defense. The only team to blow out Colorado thus far was Washington State's Apple Cup rival Washington, who is a much better team. It also should be noted that the Buffs have been favored in all but two of their games thus far, which partly explains some of the ATS struggles to this point. While they didn't cover at home against Washington, they did cover on the road vs. UCLA. Before last year, the visitor had taken four of the five previous meetings in this conference rivalry. CU is on a 9-4 ATS run as the road team while Wazzu is just 1-4 ATS the L3 seasons as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 pts. 8* Colorado

8* Baylor (8:00 ET): For most of the Big 12's existence, Baylor has been a bottom-feeder, not unlike Kansas. From the birth of the conference until 2007, they were an awful 11-85 SU vs. league opponents. But then came Art Briles and Robert Griffin III and from 2010-15, the program experienced virtually unprecedented success including FOUR 10+ win seasons. But that regime ended last year in utter disgrace due to a variety of severe misdeeds by players and coaches alike. Thus, Matt Rhule (came over from Temple) was stepping into a rather unfortunate situation, even though LY's team clearly underachieved. It's been even tougher than expected so far for Rhule as his Bears have yet to win a game and enter this week at 0-6 SU w/ just two covers to their credit. Only one time in conference play have they been able to stay within single digits of their opponent, ironically against Oklahoma.

But I believe the Bears have some fight left in them and will give #23 West Virginia all it can handle Saturday night in Waco. The Bears' three home losses have come by a total of 18 points. Yes, one of them was to Liberty, a FCS program. They also lost to UTSA, a game where they failed to score enough to even cover how much they were favored by (lost 17-10, were -11). But, as mentioned above, they did play Oklahome tough here, losing only 49-41 as 28-pt underdogs. I was impressed there by the fact they rallied back to take a second half lead after initially trailing 14-0 early in the game. Baylor is now a perfect 5-0 ATS as a home dog going back to 2011 and Rhule is 23-9 ATS all-time in his coaching career when priced as a dog w/ 11 outright victories. Watch the number as he's 11-3 ATS as a double-digit dog. 

Helping Baylor here is the fact that I absolutely hate this spot for WVU, laying points on the road. They are off a wild, come from behind win last week over Texas Tech in Morgantown. They fell behind by as many as 18 early in the second half before storming back to score the game's final 29 points! They were outgained by the Red Raiders, 513-396. Oklahoma State is on deck next week in a huge home game and the players may be looking ahead to that game. That same Oklahoma State team just whipped Baylor last week, 59-16, but I'm willing to foresake that result as the game was in Stillwater and the Pokes were off a bye (admittedly Baylor was too). Somewhat shockingly, the WVU offense only ran for 44 yards last week on a Texas Tech defense that no one will confuse w/ Alabama. Last year in Morgantown, with nothing to play for, Baylor easily covered the 17-spread, losing only 24-21 in a game they initially led 14-3. Since WVU joined the Big 12, the home team is a perfect 5-0 straight up in their meetings w/ Baylor. 8* Baylor

8* Wake Forest (7:30 ET): Georgia Tech enters the week as one of only a handful of teams that has covered the spread in all of its games this season. They're 5-0 ATS to be exact, but in a pretty awful spot this week and thus I see them failing to cover for the first time. Last Saturday saw them suffer a tough 25-24 loss down in Miami, a game that was played two days later than was originally planned due to Hurricane Irma shuffling around "The U's" schedule. It was the Yellow Jackets' second one-point loss of the season, the other coming to Tennessee (doesn't that look bad now?) in the season opener. Now they must turn around and host rested Wake Forest, a team whose defense will certainly keep this one close. Take the points and do so quickly as the line continues to drop. 

Last week was certainly an advantageous spot for the Yellow Jackets, as they were coming off a bye while Miami was coming off an emotional last second win over rival Florida State. While they blew a 24-13 second half lead, note the Jackets were outgained pretty severely by the 'Canes, (481-281), so the final result was probably deserved. Now it is they (Ga Tech) who must deal with a rested opponent. The bye week is huge for the underdog Demon Deacons here as it allows for extra preparation for the Yellow Jackets' triple-option. Plus, bye or not, they probably already had the necessary defensive personnel to stop the Ga Tech offensive attack. The Deacons rank 16th nationally in rush defense EPA and while they haven't faced the Yellow Jackets since 2010 (really!), they have gone up against similar offenses in Tulane and Army the past several seasons and done well at stopping them.

Wake may be 1-2 SU in ACC play, but that's due to the fact they had to play Florida State and Clemson the L2 games. They played the Seminoles very tough in Winston-Salem, even outgaining them 367-270, and had a chance to send the game into overtime on the final play (lost 26-19). Against Clemson, it was back door cover (trailed 28-0), but I though the Deacons played the defending Nat'l Champs closer than the score suggested in Death Valley. Again, Dave Clawson's team has a Top 20 defense nationally in terms of efficency. As a road dog, Clawson has gone a pretty outstanding 9-3 ATS the L3 seasons including an outright win at B.C. (34-10!) back in Week 2. This truly is a wretched spot for Ga Tech, who is not only off its second one-point loss of the year, but also has a date at Clemson next week. Wake Forest will be ready to go and an outright upset is a strong possibility Saturday night in Atlanta. 8* Wake Forest

8* Mississippi (7:15 ET): LSU was a nice winner for me last Saturday, but let's not lose sight of the fact that they trailed Auburn 20-0 (at home) before storming back to take the game outright (as 7.5-pt dogs) 26-23. Or the fact they lost at home to Troy. Last week was the first cover for the Bayou Bengals (who wouldn't be denied w/ former HC Les Miles in the house) since the opener against BYU (who still hasn't covered a game this year!). In two "true" road games, they've won by one (17-16 over Florida) and gotten trounced by Mississippi State. I faded them in Starkville (Miss St) and am not about to endorse them as similar road chalk based off one come from behind victory. Take the points here. 

Like LSU, it was a rare cover for Ole Miss last week as they routed Vanderbilt 57-35 in Oxford. Depending on your result from the previous Saturday (against Auburn), it was either the first or second cover of the season for the Rebels. Regardless, it snapped a three-game losing streak (all on the road). There is no denying the talent on hand here, but the issue was going to be motivation after an ugly divorce from Hugh Freeze right before the season. The word "prostitutes" is never something school officials want to see next to their name! All jokes aside, last week may have seen the Rebels turn a corner. That was (supposedly) a very good Vandy defense that they shredded to the tune of 600 total yards and 57 points last week, led by QB Shea Patterson. The Rebels now actually lead the SEC in passing offense 357.2 YPG by a wide margin. That could spell trouble for an LSU defense that has not seen this amount of talent at the skill positions this season.

With four of their next five games here in Oxford (only road game at Kentucky), I can see Ole Miss going on a bit of a late season run. Granted, it wouldn't net them a bowl appearance (ineligible due to Freeze shenanigans), but it would still be a nice way to go out for the seniors who have stuck through and those looking to rebuild the program. Interim HC Matt Luke is still auditioning for a job. As for LSU, I hate this spot as they have a bye week on deck and then the showdown vs. #1 Alabama after that, so the players could be caught looking ahead. HC Ed Orgeron (former HC at Ole Miss) inserted his foot into his mouth earlier this week when he said this game didn't mean much “because the truth is the whole time I was there I was wishing I were here.” It's not like the home dog needed any more motivation after suffering a 38-21 loss (as seven-point dogs) in Baton Rouge last season. That marked the fifth consecutive time in this SEC West rivalry that the home team won, so again, I'm in no rush to lay points w/ the road team here, especially w/ LSU just 2-7 ATS its last nine "true" road games (2-5 as favorite). It's come full circle for them going from decided road favorite (Miss St) to decided home dog (Auburn) and now back again. Meanwhile, Ole Miss seems to be just now hitting its stride w/ Patterson completing 66% of his pass attempts.  8* Mississippi 

10* Florida Atlantic (5:00 ET): At the start of the season, I said Lane Kiffin was stepping into a good situation here in Boca Raton as he was inheriting the most experienced team in the entire country! Granted, things didn't start out all that well on the scoreboard, but that was to be expected w/ the first two games at Navy and Wisconsin, two teams that right now are a combined 11-1 straight up. Since then, however, the Owls have gone 3-1 w/ the lone loss coming by three points at Buffalo. I cashed them three weeks ago at home against Middle Tennessee where they were in a price range similar to the one here and they won 38-20. That was followed up by a 30-point road win at Old Dominion and then they were off last week, which allows them ample time to prepare for a North Texas team already off B2B upsets. I see the Kiffin renaissance continuing this week. Lay the short number. 

The last two weeks have seen North Texas upset both Southern Miss and UTSA. They were 7.5-pt dogs at Southern Miss, a game in which they won 43-28, so it could certainly be called an "impressive" victory even though the Mean Green initially trailed 14-0. But last week's 29-26 win over UTSA certainly deserved to be filed in the "improbable" folder. This time, they actually got off to a strong start (led 16-7 after one quarter), but were down 26-22 w/ just over one minute left in the game and 98 yards away from their end zone. What happened next was just incredible. The Mean Grean marched down the field in seven plays, the last of which was a 22-yard TD w/ just 10 seconds remaining. Needless to say, it was one of the most stunning wins of the entire College Football weekend.

Despite their 4-2 SU record, North Texas is hardly outscoring foes (4.5 PPG) while FAU - at 3-3 SU - is actually +8.4 PPG. Off a bye, the situation is ideal for the home team while I just don't see how the road dog can summon up the energy again after last week's improbable result. Before the win at Southern Miss, North Texas had lost its first two road games by a total of 39 points. This is a team that had just seven road wins total the previous six seasons, three of those coming in the 9-4 SU season in 2013. FAU is rested and ready to go here and armed w/ some revenge after losing both previous visits from the Mean Green (four straight losses to UNT overall). This offense is good as it has topped 30 pts in three consecutive games and averaging 430 YPG for the season. I feel this line is off by a touchdown. 10* Florida Atlantic

8* Indiana (3:30 ET): Michigan State is 3-0 SU in Big 10 play, but all three wins have come by seven points or less. Now I know the Sparty faithful are going to be quick to point out last week's "backdoor" situation against Minnesota when they were up 30-13 in the 4Q, only to give up two late touchdowns and lose the cover (were four-point favorites on the road). But what about the week prior when they stunned Michigan (again!) at The Big House, winning 14-10 courtesy of a +5 turnover margin, which in turn nullified them gaining only 252 yards on offense? Meanwhile, Indiana covered for me last week (had them +7.5), but for the vast majority of bettors, they fell short (again) against Michigan, losing in overtime. An 0-3 ATS record vs. Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan is downright criminal considering how well IU played those teams (well, at least 2 of the 3) and it's about time they finish one of these games proper. This could very well be an upset, but I'll take the points.

Like many of the other top teams in the Big 10, Michigan State has been played tough by Indiana. But the Hoosiers have not beaten the Spartans in B2B seasons since '93-'94, which was the ONLY time they've done it since 1969! They'll be going for history Saturday as last year, they did pull the upset (in a similar price range), 24-21 in overtime (I was on them). At no point in that game was IU not covering. Their last visit to East Lansing resulted in a highly misleading final of 52-26 as it was only a two-point game in the 4Q before an insane confluence of events conspired against them. From '93 to '14, Indiana appeared in only one bowl game ('07), but now the program is on a better trajectory as they're looking to make it three straight postseasons. Holding onto the "Ol' Brass Spittoon" would be a nice trophy en route. 

Entering this game at 3-3 SU, Indiana might very well have to pull an upset as the majority of their remaining "winnable" games are on the road. Rutgers at home is probably a lock. So they probably have to split the four road games against Mich St, Maryland, Illinois and Purdue. Meanwhile, Michigan State is 5-1 SU, but could easily be 3-3 SU. It will be interesting to see how Mark Dantonio's young roster responds to being in the favorite role moving forward. Prior to last week, the Spartans had not scored more than 18 points in over a month, which obviously makes it difficult to like them as chalk, no matter how good the defense is. Indiana's offense (redshirt freshman Peyton Ramsey now starting) will be the best that they've faced since Notre Dame (only loss) and their defense comes in a little underrated (seventh overall in Big 10, fourth against the pass). With three conference wins by a total of 14 pts and a suspect offense, Michigan State is prime fade material here. 8* Indiana

8* Texas (12:00 ET): The Tom Herman era in Austin started not w/ a bang, but rather a whimper as his Longhorns were stunned in the season opener, losing 51-41 to Maryland (trailed 30-14 at half, but finished w/ 26-18 edge in FD's). But it turns out that result was the exception and not the rule as the Longhorns have covered every game since! Now they're just 3-3 SU overall having also lost to USC and Oklahoma. But both of those games were close and could have gone either way against favored and highly ranked opponents. Oklahoma State obviously presents a challenge, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, but Herman has the Texas defense playing at a high level and I think they'll be up for it. I'm taking the points and won't be surprised if it ends up as an outright upset!

Oklahoma State comes in ranked #1 in the country in total offense at 610.7 YPG and #2 in scoring at 48.8 points per game. Their top two receivers - James Washington and Marcell Ateman - have both posted four straight 100 yard games, becoming the first duo to do so since 1996! Last week, the Pokes whitewashed Baylor 59-16, which was not much of a surprise considering they were off a bye and the game was in Stillwater. Shockingly, OSU has won each of its last four trips into Austin, the longest such streak by any visitor in the HISTORY of Texas football! But the Longhorns' defense just fared pretty well against an Oklahoma offense which came into the game ranked ahead of OSU in total offense. They held the Sooners to just nine points after halftime in what was a failed come from behind attempt.

Coming into this season, I viewed these teams as likely to trend in opposite directions compared to 2016. Texas was a lock to improve under Herman following LY's disappointing 5-7 SU finish under Charlie Strong. There were 17 starters back, 10 on defense, and the team actually played much better than that 5-7 record indicates. They lost five games by a TD or less, three of them when favored. Also, they actually outgained Big 12 opponents despite a 3-6 conference record! Earlier, I mentioned that Texas has covered every game since the opener (5-0 ATS) and Herman is now 7-0 ATS his L7 times as a dog w/ five outright wins! The Longhorns led both USC and Oklahoma in the fourth quarter and it's about "high time" that they win one of these close ones. I know everyone loves this OK State offense, but they were held in check by a TCU defense (at home) that isn't as good as the one they'll face Saturday. It's easy when you can throw the ball all over the field against inferior opposition, but that will not be the case here. 8* Texas

10* Over Marshall/Middle Tennessee (7:00 ET): Middle Tennessee enters the week as one of five FBS teams to be perfect either Over or Under. The Blue Raiders have yet to go Over the oddsmakers total in a single game this season (though there was a close call two wks ago vs. FIU), joining Houston (plays Thursday), Troy and Akron w/ that unique distinction (LA Monroe is the only team to have gone Over in every game this season). The reason for the Under trend is pretty clear and that's QB Brent Stockstill (son of HC Rick) has been injured most of the year. This was a team that averaged 39.7 points and over 500 yards a year ago, so needless to say, Stockstill's absence has had a profound impact on things down in Murfreesboro. But this week, we get the lowest O/U line to date and I say it's "high time" we get an Over.

Marshall is a team I was sure to put on my "Most Improved List" for 2017 (played them successfully in Week 1) and the Thundering Herd has not disappointed w/ their lone loss so far coming to a very good NC State team, on the road. That was Week 2 and they've won four straight (all by double digits) since. The last two weeks, facing Charlotte and Old Dominion (two poor teams), they've allowed only six points total and no touchdowns. Earlier in the year, the defense pitched a shutout against old MAC rival Kent State, so you can see why this total is so low. But at the same time, the Thundering Herd probably haven't faced anything resembling a coherent offense in over a month. MTSU still won't have Stockstill Friday, but they've at least scored 20+ points in four straight games. Even in defeat LW at UAB, they gained nearly 400 total yds.

That game LW vs. UAB was on pace to be a high scoring affair at halftime as UAB led 22-20. But from there, the teams would only manage to exchange field goals in the 2H. I really have no way of explaining that dropoff in scoring from the first to second half. As I mentioned earlier, the week prior was the Blue Raiders' highest scoring game of the year as they beat FIU 37-17 (depending on your closing total, you may have that one counted as an Over). That is one of three MTSU games this year that would have gone Over the O/U for this week. In fact, against FAU (lost 38-20) and Syracuse (won 30-23), we had O/U lines of 60 and 72.5 respectively! While Stockstill remains out, the good news is that WR Richie James is back (returned last week). James' absence for three games is also a major reason for the Blue Raiders' offensive decline in 2017. All James has done in his career is lead all active FBS receivers in receptions (239) while placing 2nd in yards (3224)! I'm confident that backup John Uruza will be able to get him the ball. Marshall's offense, led by QB Chase Litton, is averaging 26.5 PPG. Litton has thrown 13 TD passes and RB Davis is averaging 5.0 YPC. Expect this game to go Over the total. 10* Over Marshall/Middle Tennessee

8* Old Dominion (6:00 ET): Old Dominion has "accomplished" something that's hard to do and that's lost four straight games by 30 or more points. The scores have been 53-23 (North Carolina), 38-0 (Va Tech), 58-28 (Fla Atlantic) and last week, 35-3 (Marshall). Now we all expected (at least I did) some regression from the Monarchs this season considering they aren't as experienced and were unlikely to have the same turnover margin as last year (+13). But, remember, this team won TEN games in 2016. So, it's definitely "hard times" down in Norfolk and things get no easier this week w/ a visit from the presumed C-USA East favorite Western Kentucky. For ODU, this is a revenge shot from their lone league last year, which came by 35 points in Bowling Green. They were only 13-pt dogs on the road there, so you can see how perception has swung in a year's time. As ugly as ODU's recent performances have been, I'll take the points here. 

Up until last week, Western Kentucky had not covered a spread this season (favored in every game so far). But they rolled up over 600 yds total offense on Charlotte (one of the worst teams in the entire country) in a 45-14 win as 17.5-pt chalk. The schedule has not been challenging to this point as the Hilltoppers have faced only one opponent ranked higher than 100 in my own personal power rankings (LA Tech) and they lost to them, by one, at home. They also lost at Illinois, which you normally wouldn't penalize them for, but the Fighting Illini are the worst Power 5 team in the country, and the Hilltoppers were favored there. Despite the weak schedule, WKU is only outgaining its opponents by 30 YPG this season.

WKU has won all three meetings vs. ODU, most of them high-scoring. In fact, the lowest scoring Hilltopper effort of the three was 55 points! But the offense isn't as prolific this year w/ former HC Jeff Brohm having gone to Purdue. They're averaging only 25.5 PPG through six games and the two road games (Illinois, UTEP) have seem them scored just 22 TOTAL! Old Dominion is hardly an offensive juggernaut, but a front seven that was thought to be the strength of the team coming into the year, has underachieved drastically. Note that last week, the Monarchs trailed Marshall only 14-3 entering the fourth quarter. They are on an 8-3 SU in conference home games, including 4-0 last season. It hasn't helped that they've yet to win the turnover battle in any of their games this season. RB Ray Lawly will return to the Monarchs' lineup this week and that will surely help the offense. 8* Old Dominion

8* Houston (8:00 ET): Houston is still "picking up the pieces" from an embarrassing 45-17 loss at Tulsa on Saturday (were 14-pt favorites). I was on the Golden Hurricane in that game, and while I believed an outright upset was a distinct possibility, that final score took even me aback. It was a close game most of the way (total yardage virtually even) and UH even led 10-7 at the half! But Tulsa was not to be denied in the second half, scoring on each of its six drives! Two turnovers, one a fumble that was returned for a TD very late in the game, made the final score far more lopsided than it "should" have been. Of course, one of the reasons I played against the Cougs there is I thought they might be looking ahead to this game, an AAC West showdown w/ #25 Memphis.

Memphis comes in as one of THREE AAC teams currently ranked in the top 25 (UCF, USF). However, they are the "dreaded" ranked underdog against an unranked foe here. The Tigers come in averaging just over 40 PPG and can claim victories over UCLA and Navy. Their only loss was a rescheduled affair at UCF when they were blown out on the road, 40-13. Their only other road game so far came the following week at hideous UConn. So that's something to make a note of. I figured this team would compete for the AAC West crown as they came into the year as the most experienced group in the entire conference. However, they've been a little bit fortunate w/ three wins by eight points or less, two of them by a field goal (UCLA, Navy), Last week's win over the Midshipmen was greatly aided by forcing FIVE turnovers. The final one (an INT) preserved the 30-27 victory as Navy was driving for the potential game-tying (or winning) score. Given they forced five turnovers, you would think the Tigers would have won by a more comfortable margin. Bad news for them here is the fact they are 3-9 ATS when off B2B SU wins and 3-10 ATS when facing an opponent that has a winning record.

This is a big revenge spot for UH as they lost last year up in the Liberty Bowl, 48-44 as six-point favorites. They actually trailed by 17 at halftime before storming back and taking their first lead (37-34) w/ just over seven minutes left. The teams then exchanged touchdowns, again leaving the Cougars up three, this time w/ just 89 seconds remaining. But, they then gave up a 5-play, 72-yard drive, which ended in a touchdown for Memphis w/ just 19 seconds left. The previous year, Houston had to pull off a 20-point comeback here at home just to win 35-34 as five-point favorites (both teams were ranked). I don't see Major Applewhite's team falling into such a big hole this time around. Take away sack yardage and the Memphis defense is currently surrendering 242 yards per game on the ground. That ranks 114th nationally and every FBS opponent has gained at least 150 (over land) against them. So Houston should be able to move the ball effectively here (plus Memphis just had to dismiss a DL due to rape charges) and a Thursday night home game w/ revenge is motivation enough to put them over the top (UH is 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS L5 Thursday games) 8* Houston

8* USC (8:00 ET): This is one of those rare instances where the public is likely going to be backing the underdog. After all, at worst, Utah has gone 4-0-1 ATS for bettors (5-0 for some), depending on your line for LW's tilt vs. Stanford where the Utes lost 23-30. Meanwhile, USC is a disappointing 1-5 ATS, ironically the lone cover coming against Stanford. But the pointspread is more than justified here, at least in my opinion, as Utah was a fraudulent 4-0 going into last week and nowhere near worthy of Top 25 status. USC, despite losing at Washington State (when down three offensive lineman), remains one of the most talented teams in the entire country. This is a revenge spot for the Men of Troy as they lost LY in Salt Lake after blowing a double-digit 4Q lead. 

Prior to the game at Wazzu, Southern Cal had not lost since last year in Salt Lake. Even in defeat, I thought they outplayed the Utes LY and I'm not just saying that because I had them. They outgained them, but were -2 in turnovers. It was a Friday night game and both of Utah's final two touchdowns came on long drives, the final one going 93 yards and ending w/ just 16 seconds left on the clock (gave Utah a 31-27 lead). Again, while the majority of results for USC have been closer than expected this year, I don't think it's right to bury them. They did lose three O-lineman at Wazzu (another Fri night game!), yet were still tied late in the fourth quarter against maybe the toughest opponent they'll see all year (Notre Dame?). Last week, I faded them, but that came as large favorites (33-pt spread) and though I ended up covering rather easily (38-10 final), USC really dominated the game from the outset. It was 28-3 at the end of three quarters and the Trojans still finished w/ a rather significant 512-319 edge in total yds. 

Utah has two road wins thus far, but both were by only six points, and they were quite fortunate to overcome Arizona a couple weeks ago. That game saw them outgained 448-341 only to benefit from FIVE turnovers, the last of which came at their own 20-yd line w/ the game hanging in the balance. Even worse, QB Tyler Huntley was injured in that game, necessitating a move back to 2016 starter Trevor Williams. Williams struggled against Stanford, barely completing 50% of his pass attempts. The Utes have been tremendous as an underdog the last several seasons, but this reminds me a bit of their last visit to the Coliseum, two years ago, where they were ranked #3 in the country (unbeaten at the time!), yet underdogs and lost 42-24. In my opinion, Southern Cal remains the class of the Pac 12 South. 8* USC

8* Tulsa (4:00 ET): I can't say that Tulsa's 2017 regression comes as any surprise, given that I had them earmarked to take a step back following LY's somewhat stunning 10-3 (SU) campaign. After all, they lost their starting QB, a 1,600 yd rusher and TWO 1,000+ yd receivers from that team, not to mention three of the top four tacklers on the defensive side of the ball. That being said, I did not envision the Golden Hurricane coming into this key AAC West matchup at 1-5 straight up. They've lost four in a row, three of them close before last week's absolutely wretched deal at Tulane where a decision to move up kickoff was made very late (due to Hurricane Nate). It seems as if the Tulsa players didn't get that memo, however, as Tulane scored on each of its SEVEN first half possessions and went into the break up 48-7. The final score ended up being 62-28.  Back home this week, and getting lots of points, I expect a much more focused group. Take the points.

Houston came into the year as the favorite to win the division, just like last year when they underperformed (were considered New Year's Six contender) and finished only 9-4 SU in Tom Herman's final year. Major Applewhite was the OC under Herman, so there's not been much of a learning curve. That said, I feel the Cougars are a bit lucky to be 4-1 SU night. They've played nothing but close games (save for horrible Rice) and generally had the ball bounce their way. The season opener at Arizona (won 19-16) could have gone either way. They lost outright at home to Texas Tech, 24-17 as seven-point favorites, giving up over 500 yards of total offense (also turned the ball over five times). A 20-13 win at Temple (who has also taken a major step back this year) saw them benefit from turnovers, but the big story there was Ed Oliver suffering a knee injury. He did play last week against SMU, but as I'm about to get into, that was a pretty lucky cover for the Cougs.

You can probably file that Houston-SMU game last Saturday right at the top of the "bad beats" pile. Yeah, SMU was probably in line for a non-cover anyway based on a 5-0 ATS start. But as 10-pt underdogs, they didn't trail by double digits until early fourth quarter. Trailing 35-22, the Mustangs' next three drives all reached the Houston side of the field, but NONE of them resulted in points. Houston was outgained by 81 yds in the contest and if you take away that game against Rice, then the overall numbers look really subpar. Granted, Tulsa has work to do as well, but two of their losses were by a field goal, one as a 7.5-pt home favorite against New Mexico. Last week's performance is no way indicative of what Philip Montgomery's team can bring to the table. Looking to avoid what would be a third straight loss at home (and fifth in a row overall), I expect a strong effort from the home dog Saturday. Meanwhile, UH seems to be in an awful spot given the lucky cover last week, the fact they have a QB controversy brewing (haven't even mentioned that!) and are looking at a short week coming up w/ Memphis on deck (at home) Thursday. 8* Tulsa

8* LSU (3:30 ET): It is quite amazing to see the shift in the market and public perception for this SEC West matchup. The look ahead line over the summer had LSU as the 7-point favorite. Now the Bayou Bengals' disappointing play thus far certainly justifies a move in the market, but I have to now wonder if that move is too much, plus the public is ALL over Auburn here. Such lopsided endorsement of the road team, as a favorite no less, seems somewhat foolish as the home team is on a 15-2 SU run in this rivalry. Yes, LSU has failed to cover its last five times as an underdog. But three of those games came against Alabama. Auburn might be feeling a bit too good about itself coming into Death Valley this year, strange because they have not won here since 1999! Take the points. 

LSU opened its season w/ a 27-0 shutout of BYU in what looked to be an impressive performance. We now know that BYU's offense is terrible and the Tigers haven't covered since. They were actually 8.5-pt favorites AT Mississippi State, a game that seems like it was played eons ago, and that 37-7 loss is what really began the downturn. Note I played AGAINST LSU in that game. I also played against them vs. Syracuse when they never came close to covering (still won 35-26). But, without question, the nadir of the season came w/ the 24-21 loss to Troy two weeks ago. LSU had the edge in total yds there, but was undone by four turnovers. With their stock seemingly at an all-time low and fans openly questioning the Ed Orgeron hire, the team responded with a win at Florida, which tells me they're not going to roll over. The defense held the Gators to only 302 total yds and will now be stronger w/ the returns of Rashard Lawrence and Frank Herron on the edge. On offense, RB Derrius Guice missed the Troy game and has not gone over 100 yds since the 2nd game of season. But according to Orgeron, he's had a strong week of practice and is ready to go here. Remember that Guice ran for almost 1400 yds and had 15 TD's last year as a backup. 

Auburn's three-game SEC win streak has come at the expense of teams that are a combined 1-7 SU in the league w/ Ole Miss and Mizzou arguably being the weakest teams overall. They did dominate the same Mississippi State team that dominated LSU, but the winners of both those games were the home teams. Something else certainly worth noting is that LSU was the road favorite for this matchup last year and lost outright 18-13 (laying three). So it's a revenge game for them. Here, I do not expect Auburn's offense to come anywhere close to the production we've seen so far in SEC play. Rather, it should be a lower scoring type affair conducive to taking the points. Yes it was Clemson they were playing, but Auburn's offense managed just over 100 total yards in an earlier road game. The only other road game they've played was at Missouri, who is awful to begin with and turned the ball over four times. 8* LSU

8* Texas Tech (12:00 ET): Plenty of points are expected in this Big 12 matchup (total is 75!), but I'm far more intrigued by the side in what looks like a trap spot for the short home chalk. Sure enough, the sharp dollars quickly flowed in AGAINST WVU here taking them from a TD favorite to nearly a field goal. What makes this a trap spot for the Mountaineers is that they are coming off a tough loss LW at TCU (both teams were off byes), 31-24, as 12.5-pt underdogs. It was a game WVU finished w/ the edge in total yards (508-406) and first downs (28-16), but two turnovers cost them and they gave up the GW TD w/ just under three minutes remaining. Texas Tech is a live dog here as not only did they go for 600+ total yds LW, but they also are 19-9-2 ATS overall their L30 games. Take the points (even though you may not end up needing them). 

The majority of signs were pointing down coming into the year in Morgantown. This is far from HC Dana Holgorsen's most experienced team as he had only eight starters back from last year's squad that finished 10-3 SU. Of course, that 10-3 SU record included a rather fortuitous 4-0 mark in games decided by four points or less. (BYU, Kansas St, Texas and Baylor were the teams they beat close). Ironically, one of LY's biggest wins in conference play came against Texas Tech, 48-17 (-2) in Lubbock. But that was actually the 'Neers' first cover against the Red Raiders since joining the Big 12. They were 0-4 ATS previously even though they've now won the L3 meetings (straight up). In their first game of '17, WVU was go-against team in my 10* Game of the Week and they lost to Va Tech. I wasn't all too impressed by a subsequent three-game win streak as the teams they beat included East Carolina (terrible), Delaware State (FCS) and Kansas (worst team in Big 12). That lack of impressiveness there is somewhat confirmed by them failing to cover twice. Last week's loss in Ft. Worth does not set them up well here as they are 1-6 ATS L3 seasons off a conference loss.

Texas Tech's only loss came two weeks ago to Oklahoma State, a game which really wasn't as close as the 31-24 final indicates. But they do have wins over both Arizona State and at Houston. Last week was not close as it was their turn to blow out Kansas, 65-19 as 14.5-pt chalk. It's worth noting they dominated Kansas far more than WVU did. We know this team can move the ball as they come in averaging 549.8 YPG. Last week marked the 3rd time they broke the 600-yard threshold. Now WVU does average roughly 30 more YPG, but you might be surprised to learn that the Texas Tech defense is better overall and on a yards per play basis (5.5 to 6.1). While I'm a bit surprised to see the Red Raiders ranked in the AP Poll (#24) (they replaced WVU!), I feel this game sets up well for them as it's a triple revenge spot and WVU has lost nine straight to ranked opponents. The Red Raiders can also run the ball, something that has NOT been the case in past seasons. 8* Texas Tech

10* Army (12:00 ET): Burdened w/ expectations for the 1st time in the Jeff Monken era (4th year here at West Point), the Cadets are having a little bit of an issue covering spreads. They've actually been favored four times previous to here and gone just 2-2 ATS. However, it's interesting to note that all four times saw them asked to lay double digits, which is NOT the case this week as they welcome Eastern Michigan to campus. EMU achieved its greatest success in years last season (1st bowl appearance since '87!), but was expected to regress here in '17 and has responded in kind. They've dropped three in a row, albeit all by a TD or less. I don't like this spot for the visiting Eagles - at all - as not only is it a third consecutive road game, but stepping outside of MAC play right now probably isn't for the best. Lay the points.

Army did cover as a favorite LW, routing RIce by a final score of 49-12 (-12), on the road no less, their first win in Houston since '58. Now Rice is undoubtedly one of the worst teams in the country and they turned the ball over SIX times. But building a 35-0 by halftime was impressive for the Black Knights. Not exactly known for forcing TO's, Army forced one on each of Rice's first four possessions and scored a TD off every one! Their forte is of course running the football and they went for 418 yds over land, their most since the opener. They figure to have success here against an Eastern Michigan defense that has struggled against the run in four of its five games this season. Speaking of defense, Army has been pretty impressive on that side of the ball thus far. Only Ohio State has topped 21 points against them and Eastern Michigan isn't likely to, given they come in averaging only 19.0 PPG. 

This will be the third meeting in five years between these two schools as they've alternated every season. Army has won both prior meetings, scoring 50 or more each time. They are 6-1 SU all-time against the Eagles. Off three consecutive tough losses, it's going to be tough for Eastern Michigan to "get off the mat" here. Against Ohio U, they fell in double OT at home. Then came perhaps the toughest loss of the bunch, at Kentucky, where despite an edge in total yds they lost 24-20. Last week in Toledo, QB Brogan Roback threw an INT at the Toledo 31 yard line w/ just over a minute to go in a 20-15 loss. Given the turnover issues that have plagued EMU and what Army did to Rice last week, TO's again figure to be a deciding factor in this one. We know Army can run the ball, but Eastern Michigan cannot as during the three-game losing streak, they've averaged only 43.7 yards per game. 10* Army

8* Indiana (12:00 ET): Home dogs off a bye haven't performed as well as you might think ATS, but here Indiana happens to be catching Michigan at a most opportune time. Yes, you can dissect the Wolverines' horrid 14-10 home loss to Michigan State last week (were off a bye themselves) any way you'd like. They outgained Sparty (slightly) only to be undone by an ugly -5 turnover differential. But the Maize and Blue happen to be in real trouble right now as they're down several key players on the offensive side of the ball and backup QB John O'Korn did not look good at all last Saturday night. Furthermore, ranked teams off a loss have not fared well in the past, cashing in around just 45% when favored or on the road. Michigan happens to both this week and a popular choice among the public as well. Take the points. 

The fact that Indiana went 0 for 2 ATS against Ohio State and Penn State is misleading at best and criminal at worst. They played both Big 10 heavyweights tough. The season opener here in Bloomington saw IU "tooth and nail" w/ Ohio State for almost three quarters (led 21-20 w/ 4:56 left in 3Q!) only to wilt late due to an inability to stop Buckeyes' RB JK Dobbins. Michigan does not have a back anywhere near as dynamic as Dobbins. The Penn State game might have looked ugly on the scoreboard (lost 45-14 as 20-pt dogs), but note the Hoosiers turned it over four times in that game, two of which were INT's returned for touchdowns. I thought their defense held up really well against a potent Nittany Lions offense, holding them to just 370 total yds and Heisman front-runner Saquon Barkley to 56 yds on 26 carries. Again, the offense they'll face this week is nowhere near as good as Ohio State or Penn State's. Michigan is averaging barely 4.0 yards per rush and has a backup in at quarterback. Michigan's defense might be #1 in the country and forcing three and outs, but Indiana's is actually #2!

Now the Wolverines do have one of the better defenses in the entire country. But they've also yet to face an offense as good as what Indiana brings to the table. The Hoosiers' 34-17 win over Virginia (on the road!) keeps looking better and better given how the Hoos have subsequently performed. Furthermore, Indiana will keep the Michigan defense "on its toes" as they are likely to rotate QB's w/ senior Richard Lagow and freshman Peyton Ramsey (made 1st career start last week). No matter who is in at QB, they will have a talented set of receivers to throw the ball to. The Indiana defense has seen O'Korn before as he started against them LY due to a different Wilton Speight injury. That game saw the Hoosiers EASILY cover as 24-point underdogs in "The Big House." The last meeting here in Bloomington was also an easy cover as it went to double OT. While IU has not beaten Michigan since 1987 (lost 21 straight!), on paper, this year sets up as their best shot at an outright win. 8* Indiana

8* BYU (12:00 ET): Yes, Mississippi State is off a bye here and looking to get back on track after B2B embarrassing defeats at the hands of Auburn and Georgia (two admittedly very good teams). And they probably couldn't have asked for a better opponent as BYU rolls into Starkville for this early kick. BYU has lost five straight since a season opening win over FCS Portland State and has yet to cover a single pointspread here in 2017. Their 0-6 ATS record is in fact the worst in the entire country. But as bleak as things look right now in Provo, I believe this line has moved enough (hit the key number of 24!) to make taking the underdog worth the shot. As I've written about extensively before, teams getting three touchdowns or more this season have been KILLING it, going 82-47 ATS including 6-2 last week! Take the points.

Now, in the interest of full disclosure, I did think last week was an opportune time to back BYU as well. They jumped out to a 7-0 lead on Boise State, but would not score again and lost 24-7 as 7-pt underdogs. Certainly, we are not used to seeing BYU football play this poorly. I will point out that the lone FBS team they were favored against was Utah State and the money moved in sharply against them there (I actually had USU). That game saw BYU again take an early lead, only to be foiled by SEVEN turnovers, which negated an edge in total yards. While this team isn't good, I still think they're better than how they've looked so far. Before the current 0-4 ATS mark this year, this team had covered 8 of 10 in the underdog role. 

I think MSU is still getting "residual credit" for its 37-7 beatdown of LSU last month, which given the Tigers' subsequent struggles, no longer looks as impressive as it once did. All that goodwill earned for HC Dan Mullen there was quickly undone w/ the pair of losses to Auburn and Georgia, who outscored them 80-13 w/ significant yardage advantages. QB Nick Fitzgerald, who was made to look like a Heisman candidate by BYU, struggled badly in both losses. Stepping outside the SEC schedule here, off a bye no less, may not exactly be the most inspiring spot for the Bulldogs, especially given the state of the opponent. Be aware that last season saw BYU upset Mississippi State, in Provo, 28-21 (+7) in double overtime. Yes, that means the "revenge angle" is technically in play, but I'm not sure that will mean much to the Bulldogs' players here. Certainly not enough to actively seek out winning by a margin greater than what the oddsmakers are calling for. That game LY saw MSU never trail in regulation, but they failed to put the game away. This is BYU's longest losing streak since 1970 (!), so I feel they will actually be the more motivated side Sat afternoon. 8* BYU

10* Syracuse (8:00 ET): There are 13 remaining unbeatens in College Football and #2 Clemson is probably among the least surprising of them. The defending Nat'l Champs have not played an easy schedule by any means, holding wins over three Top 15 teams (at the time) - Auburn, Louisville & Virginia Tech. More impressive is that both ACC wins came on the road, though in retrospect those two wins may not have been as impressive as originally thought. At 6-0 SU, Tigers' fans are likely pointing to the B2B games in November against NC State and Florida State as the most likely stumbling blocks. But w/ an open date looming next week, they shouldn't sleep on this weeknight matchup at the Carrier Dome. Syracuse is an improved team this year and can certainly score.

The Tigers appeared to the be on their way to an easy cover LW in Death Valley against Wake Forest. They led 28-0 in fourth quarter (laying 21), but then gave up a pair of late TD's to allow the Demon Deacon in through the proverbial "back door." More critical, however, was the injury to QB Kelly Bryant (left w/ ankle injury). Bryant has surprised everyone so far in how well he's filled in for DeShaun Watson. But, at less than 100 percent, I'm interested to see how he performs. HC Dabo Swinney is on the record as saying he believes Bryant will play, but if he doesn't, it will be either a redshirt freshman or true freshman starting instead. That could be problematic on the road. Impressive as they've looked so far, coming into the year I had Clemson slipping record-wise as it was unlikely they'd be able to match LY's 7-1 record in games decided by seven points or less. They were 3-1 SU in such games the year prior. Don't forget though; last year they were upset by Pitt (as 21-point favorites) - at home.

Syracuse is an experienced team as they brought a FBS-high 19 returning starters back for HC Dino Babers, now in his second year here. Babers, who came over from Bowling Green (boy have they gone in the toilet since he left), was expected to immediately improve the offense and that's exactly what's transpired as the Orange come in averaging 32.0 PPG this year. They're only 3-3 SU mind you, but all three losses were by single digits and two were on the road against LSU and NC State. Last week, they overcame an early deficit to beat Pittsburgh 27-24 as three-point chalk. While it ended up being a close game (Pitt scored late TD), Syracuse put up 500 yards of total offense and had 10 more first downs. At 3-3 SU right now and with games left against Miami, Florida St and Louisville (all on the road), the Orange are going to have to pull at least one upset in order to make a bowl game. I'm not saying they'll pull that necessary upset, but this is obviously the biggest home game of the year and I expect them to play well. 10* Syracuse

8* South Alabama (8:00 ET): These teams had very different results their respective last times out, which was two Saturdays ago. Of course, Troy stunned the College Football universe by going into LSU and upsetting the heavily favored Bayou Bengals, 24-21 as 20.5-pt underdogs. Though the Trojans should be given plenty of credit for the biggest win in program history, they were outgained and the beneficiaries of four LSU turnovers. South Alabama, on the other hand, was on the wrong end of a bad beat at Louisiana Tech that same evening. Getting double digits, the Jaguars were down only one point entering the fourth quarter. Sadly, they were outscored 17-0 the rest of the way w/ the final TD allowed coming after they'd turned the ball over deep in their own territory, late. This is an in-state rivalry that USA, being the neophyte program, wants to make more relevant. I'll be taking the points here. 

South Alabama had a very interesting season last year. They beat both Mississippi State (on the road!) and San Diego State (who was ranked #19 at the time). However, they still finished only 6-7 SU after a loss in the Arizona Bowl to Air Force. Also, besides the two upsets, they covered only other game (finished 3-10 ATS). Right now, they have a long way to go before they can start thinking bowl game. The lone SU win this year came at the expense of a FCS program (Alabama A&M). Now, to be fair, the season opened w/ games against Ole Miss and Oklahoma State. But it's been the last two results that have proven to be less kind. Not only did they fall apart at La Tech, but in the Sun Belt opener, they fell (at home) to Idaho in double overtime, 29-23, giving up the game-tying TD w/ less than a minute to go in regulation.

Since South Alabama made the move from the FCS level in 2012, these teams have met four times. The underdog is a perfect 4-0 ATS w/ three of the games decided by seven points or less. That's what I'm looking for here. Troy clearly comes in a bit overvalued due to the historic upset of LSU. Coming off a 10-3 SU season, the Trojans are now 4-1 w/ four straight victories (lost opener at Boise State), but the last three have all been by five points or less. They are a team that I projected to regress in '17 and truthfully, an outright upset would not shock me this evening. Troy is just 4-9 ATS its L13 home games and 0-5 ATS off its previous five bye weeks. 8* South Alabama

8* UNLV (10:45 ET): In last week's analysis on UNLV, I said that this was an undervalued team based on that embarrassing loss to Howard in the season opener. That loss, to a FCS opponent, set a new standard for upsets in College Football as the Rebels were 45-point favorites in the contest. Since then, however, the Rebs have gone 3-0 ATS. They've blown out both Idaho and San Jose State here in the desert and stayed within the number at Ohio State. Saturday night's game will carry a very special meaning at Sam Boyd Stadium considering the tragic events that took place in Las Vegas just last weekend. I expect a very inspired effort here from the home dog and an outright win is NOT out of the realm of possibility. Take the points. 

Looking at the opponent, San Diego State looks to be in a pretty tough spot. They are in off a pretty fortunate 34-28 win over Northern Illinois where they were outgained by nearly 200 yards. They were able to pull out the win, at home mind you, thanks to forcing four turnovers and scoring two non-offensive touchdowns. While this is the Mountain West Conference opener for both teams here, I think it's fair to say that the Aztecs could be inclined to look past UNLV and towards next week's home date w/ MWC standard-bearer Boise State. Even though the Broncos aren't what they "once were," that's a big game for SDSU as they try and claim conference supremacy. For them, this game might just be a look ahead and that makes them very vulnerable as a road favorite.

Last year's meeting w/ SD State did not go well for UNLV as they were held to season lows in points (7), total yards (122) and first downs (9). They lost 26-7 as 15.5-pt road dogs. This year's team has a far more explosive offense (nine starters returned) as they've now hit 40+ points three times (Ohio State game the only exception). Last week, they went for 548 total yards in the 41-13 thrashing of San Jose State that I was on. It was also their third game going for at least that many yards (again OSU the exception). There is good skill position talent here w/ Lexington Thomas at RB and Devonte Boyd at WR. The past three seasons have seen the Rebels go 4-2 - both straight up and against the spread - as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 pts. That includes an outright win at Idaho back in Week 2. 8* UNLV

10* Arizona (8:00 ET): Arizona basically gave a game away to Utah two weeks ago as they outgained the Utes 448-341, but turned the ball over FIVE times, the last one being the most costly. Trailing by six w/ less than three minutes to go, the Wildcats had the ball at the Utah 20-yard line only for QB Brandon Dawkins to fumble the ball away. It was a real "blown opportunity" considering Utah's starting QB left the game in the second quarter due to injury. Under normal circumstances, I might question how the Wildcats respond their next time out, but fortunately here they've had more than a full week off to recover and prepare for Colorado. Rich Rod's team was not particularly good against the spread (2-10) last year, so to me, there's some inevitable progression set to take place. Take the points here.

Colorado was in the Pac 12 Championship Game a year ago, but calls for them to regress in 2017 were almost universal. Sure enough, they've opened conference play 0-2 SU w/ losses to Washington and UCLA. The Pac 12 Title Game rematch vs. UW went worse than expected w/ the Buffs losing 37-10 as 10-pt home dogs. Colorado did score first (first quarter TD), but after that it was all Huskies (37-3). As disappointing a result as that was, last week against UCLA was probably worse. The Bruins came in a tattered bunch, off B2B losses where they'd surrended over 100 points. But even though they moved the ball, the Buffs could never get the lead in the second half and fell 27-23 as touchdown underdogs. 

Last year, Arizona dropped a game in Tucson, 49-24 to Colorado as 16-point dogs. That may seem like a pretty lopsided affair, but Arizona actually had the edge in total yards only to have to constantly settle for field goals, three of which were missed. Note that the Wildcats had won the four prior meetings. What do I feel will be different from last year? How about the Wildcats' defense, which held both Houston and Utah in relative check? After allowing 38.3 points and 469 yards per game last season, those numbers are down to 22.2 and 376 so far this season.  The Colorado offense is in the bottom half of the league offensively in scoring, passing, rushing and total yardage. Arizona has shown it can run the ball this year (200 yards vs. Utah), so look for them to put points on the board here against a Colorado defense that was gashed by the run against Washington and the pass by UCLA. 10* Arizona

    

8* Boston College (7:15 ET): There are a number of games this week where the driving force behind my play is that I don't like the situation at all from the opponent's perspective. Such is the case here w/ Va Tech, who was crushed last week (at home) by Clemson and has an open date on deck. After suffering their first loss of the season in such a high-profile spot, I think it's right to question how the Hokies will respond. Typically, they do respond well (6-1 SU off an ACC loss L3 seasons), but the only other "true" road game they've had to play prior to this was at lowly East Carolina. This is the first time they've had to leave the region and B.C. has the edge of having played an easy game last week (beat Central Mich 28-8) after their own loss to Clemson. I'll take the points here.

Boston College has played a very challenging schedule to this point. They opened w/ a road win over Northern Illinois, which now looks a lot more impressive than it did back then. (NIU won at Nebraska). The next three games were against Wake Forest, Notre Dame and Clemson, all losses, but I though the Eagles competed a lot harder in all three games than the final score indicates. Four turnovers killed them against Wake Forest, turning what was basically an evenly played game into a lopsided final. Then the Clemson game was actually tied 7-7 (on the road!) going into the fourth quarter. So don't let that 34-7 final fool you either. Last week saw B.C. finally get back into the win column w/ a commanding 28-8 win over Central Michigan here in Chesnut Hill. Special teams played a big factor in the win, but they also ran for a season-best 224 yards. Fortunately, freshman A.J. Dillon is fine (left LW's game) and will play here after his first 100-yard game.

While B.C. was able to enter the fourth quarter tied at Clemson before eventually wilting, Va Tech couldn't get within two TD's of the defending National Champs in the second half, even at home. The fact that the Hokies outgained the Tigers is a little misleading even in the face of a -3 turnover margin. They actually trailed by THREE touchdowns for a majority of the second half. I really can't understate what a discouraging loss that had to be for the Hokies as they went in thinking upset w/ the ESPN Gameday cameras present. Now that they've been humbled and have an open date to look forward to, I see them failing to separate here against a team that typically is strong on the defensive side of the ball. 8* Boston College

8* UAB (4:00 ET): Returning from a two-year hiatus, UAB football has struggled early on in 2017, just as you might have expected. Well, they're actually 2-2 SU, but it's been a pretty weak schedule to this point. Two weeks ago, they lost a wild 46-43 game at North Texas as 10.5-pt underdogs. Twice they rallied back from down two scores (30-14 and then 43-29) only to lose "at the gun" on a last-second field goal. After tying the game 43-43, the Blazers allowed UNT return man Evan Johnson to take the ball to nearly midfield, setting up a relatively easy game-winning drive. But they've had a week to recover (off last week) and it's Homecoming at Legion Field this week. This will be a motivated dog. Take the points.

Louisiana Tech has burned me a couple of times this year, last week in particular. Laying almost two touchdowns, they led South Alabama by just a single point going into the fourth quarter. But they would go on to outscore the Jaguars 17-0 in the final 12:17 to "steal" the cover. The final score came w/ 3:17 to go and was a 27-yd TD run, a one-play drive set up by USA turning it over on downs. I'll go ahead and tip my cap to you if you were a La Tech backer in that one, but I'll also question what the Bulldogs may have left here after the late surge vs. South Alabama and the two preceding games both being decided by one point (one win, one loss). Last week was the 1st time they were asked to lay points to a FBS foe this year and this will be the first time they've been asked to do so on the road. There's a much-needed open date next week, which the players may already be looking forward to. 

To clarify something I said at the top, yes, UAB didn't even have a team in 2015 or '16. But they did hold scrimmages last year and Bill Clark, who took over before 2014 (led team to a 6-6 record), remained w/ the program. After opening w/ a 38-7 win over Alabama A&M, they were "blown out" at Ball State (lost 51-31), but actually had the edge in total yds in that game, 504-377. It was a close game that was broken open late due to a kickoff return for a TD and some untimely turnovers. Then came a nice win here at home over Coastal Carolina where the Blazers led the whole way. So this team has really played pretty well, all things considered, in the four games so far. As for La Tech, after three straight tight games and a visit to Mississippi State, I just have to wonder what's "left in the tank." Not enough to cover a double digit spread on the road, in my estimation. 8* UAB

8* Oregon State (4:00 ET): Attrition (no bye weeks) was the most predominantly cited factor for USC inevitably coming up short in its bid for the College Football Playoff, but little did we know it would begin to take hold so early in the season. The "Men of Troy" finally came up short on the scoreboard last Friday, losing up in Pullman to Washington State by a score of 30-27 as five-point favorites. While it may have been their first SU loss of the season, it was by no means the first time they'd struggled and that's reflected in the team's 1-4 mark at the pay window. Really, the only game where they looked "good" was against Stanford. They struggled to get by Western Michigan, Cal and Texas, not pulling away until late against the first two and needing multiple OT's to get by the latter. This looks to be a terrible spot for Clay Helton's team as they are laying a massive number to desperate and winless Oregon State. I'll take the points.

Now Oregon State is 0-5 ATS, tied w/ BYU for the worst such mark nationally. They were blown out last week at home, losing 42-7 to unbeaten Washington. It was their fourth 30+ point loss of the season, which is terrible considering Beavers fans were thinking bowl game coming into the season. Now they'll just take a win. Unfortunately, I don't see them being favored in any game the rest of the way. So the fans will have to settle for a cover here. Sure, they've lost 23 straight visits to the Coliseum and 15 straight on the road overall. But as a dog of more than three touchdowns, they are 3-0 ATS the L3 seasons. Nationwide, teams are 76-45 ATS when getting three touchdowns or more this season. 

USC was down three offensive linemen in last week's loss to Wazzu, so they have an excuse for losing. But I can see the players not taking this game very seriously as there's a much bigger home game on deck against Utah, who may come in undefeated. Two of the three offensive lineman that were out against Washington State may again be out here. We know starting guard Viane Talamaivo won't play as he's done for the year w/ a torn pec. Right tackle Chuma Edoga hasn't practiced all week. Getting back to the pointspread, this will be - easily - the most points they've had to lay in any game in the Clay Helton era. While the players will be justifiably angry after losing last week, I don't think that anger carries over into a blowout here. Not w/ a bigger game looming. Also, Oregon State has to eventually cover, right? 8* Oregon State

8* Appalachian State (3:30 ET): New Mexico State is currently tied w/ SMU for the best ATS record in the nation (5-0) and one of only eight teams left that has covered the pointspread in all of its games (six others all either 4-0 or 3-0 ATS). They call the pointspread "the great equalizer" for a reason and in the case of NMSU, it's certainly helped, as they're only 2-3 SU. Last week, they just barely snuck inside the number against Arkansas, losing 42-24 as 18.5-pt chalk. (Ironically, the Hogs are still an "0-fer" against the number). Admittedly, that was the first time all year that the Aggies were "blown out," but I don't like their chances here against a rested Appalachian State team that came into the season favored to win the Sun Belt. Consider that in LY's reg season finale, App State beat NMSU 37-7 as 19-pt ROAD favorites. Not enough has changed in 10 months time to justify this price swing. Lay the points. 

App State has lost twice already, but both times were to Power 5 foes. They were a trendy underdog call in the season opener at Georgia, but lost there 31-10. That loss was followed by a pair of expected wins over Savannah State and Texas State. Then came a rare home game vs. a P5 foe, Wake Forest, and the game was close. Unfortunately though, despite a 494-344 edge in total yards, the Mountaineers came out on the wrong end of a 20-19 final (did cover as 5.5-pt dogs, however). They had a 27-18 first down edge as well, but what would have been a game-winning field goal (w/ five seconds left) was blocked. I have to think the players have been "chomping at the bit" (to get back on the field) following such a close call and to me, NMSU is in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Appalachian State was playing for a share of the regular season SBC Title in last year's meeting and took no prisoners, scoring the game's first 17 and final 20 points. They outgained the Aggies 604-240! Most of the key contributors from that blowout victory returned for this season. Granted, New Mexico State is much improved this season and close losses to Arizona State and Troy now look even better considering those teams have gone on to beat Oregon and LSU, respectively. But the bye week was big for App State as they can prepare for the NMSU offense, which is almost entirely reliant on the pass. From a scheduling standpoint, this is not a great spot for the underdog as it's their second straight road game and fourth in six games. Meanwhile, it's Homecoming in Boone and I think the alumni are rewarded w/ a big win and cover Sat afternoon. 8* Appalachian State

8* Kent State (3:30 ET): I absolutely hate this spot for Northern Illinois. Yes, they did outgain San Diego State last week (417-263), but a -4 turnover margin ultimately doomed them to a 34-28 loss. SDSU had TWO non-offensive TD's, one an INT return, the other a kickoff return to start the game. NIU did at least leave w/ the cash though, covering as 9.5-pt underdogs. That improves them to 4-0 ATS and the week prior they went to Nebraska and won straight up, 21-17 despite a rather significant DISadvantage in total yds. Three of their four games thus far have been decided by six points or fewer and they've been a dog all three times against FBS competition. That's what makes this line "look a little large" from my perspective. Off B2B wild non-conference road games, I'm not sure this MAC opener will have their full attention, even on Homecoming weekend. Kent State may not be good, but they're at least battle-tested (played at both Clemson & Louisville already!) and that should have them prepared to stay within the number. Take the points.

While NIU has played mostly close games, Kent has mostly been on the WRONG end of some blowouts. They lost to Clemson & L'ville by a combined score of 98-6, though they did actually cover against the latter thanks to a 42-point spread! They've also been shutout by a much improved Marshall team, 21-0. I should point out, however, that all three teams that blew out the Golden Flashes are all higher ranked (in my own power ratings) compared to Northern Illinois. Last week, Kent lost 27-13 at Buffalo and like NIU, they outgained the opposition 444-377. It was a game that saw only ONE TD scored in the second half (by Buffalo) and the Bulls also benefited in the 1st half by getting to start a drive inside the Kent 10-yd line.

These teams met in LY's regular season finale w/ NIU winning 31-21 as a six-point road favorite. As you can see, it's been a pretty significant swing in the market to now have them favored by over three touchdowns, even after factoring in the change in venue. Over the L3 seasons, Kent St has covered both times it has been a road dog of +21.5 to +31. Furthermore, nationwide, we've seen teams getting at least 21 points go 76-45 ATS this season. It's not as if Northern Illinois' possesses a dominant offense. They are averaging only 26.7 PPG and 5.1 yards per play w/ opponents topping both of those averages. Three years ago, which is the last time Kent State came to DeKalb, they easily covered a similar spread as they lost only 17-14. 8* Kent State

8* BYU (10:15 ET): You may recall that I opened my analysis of last week's BYU game with the simple statement "BYU stinks." Early on, it appeared as if I might have to eat my words as the Cougars jumped out to a 21-7 lead on Utah State. But they quickly conceded it and ended up losing 40-24 despite substantial edges in both total yardage (396-288) and first downs (20-14). The problem was SEVEN turnovers, two of them interceptions that were returned for touchdowns (basically the difference in the game). Shockingly, BYU is now 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS and that one SU win came against a FCS school (Portland State). But at least the offense finally showed signs of life last week. The result of the poor start is they are now sizable home underdogs for the annual tussle w/ Boise State. I like the points here as BYU can't be as bad as they've looked previously. 

Boise State also isn't up to par compared to past editions. They come in at 2-2 SU and off a bye week. Last we saw them, they were hammered (on the blue turf!) by Virginia, losing 42-23 as 2 TD favorites. It was their worst home loss since '01! Really, the turning point in this season came in the second game when they blew a 3 TD lead in the 4Q at Washington State and ended up losing in triple overtime. In between the two losses, they failed to cover at home against New Mexico. QB Brett Rypien still doesn't look right after getting injured in that loss to Wazzu. He's completing only 60 percent of his passes and has ZERO touchdown passes. Keep in mind that last year he threw for 3,646 yards w/ a 24-8 TD-INT ratio. He hasn't had much help mind you, whether it be a weaker than normal rushing attack, a suspect offensive line or drops from the receivers. Of the 27 first down plays, Boise State ran against Virginia, they gained two or fewer yards on over half of them. 

BYU has been a dog in all four losses, so maybe it's a bit premature to "ring the alarm" in Provo. Still, the lack of offense was concerning against LSU, Utah and Wisconsin. But then, as mentioned above, there were signs against Utah State. The Boise State defense has already surrendered 40+ points twice this year. These teams have met every year since 2012 w/ the home team going 5-0 SU. But two of Boise's wins, including the one last year, were by a single point. The Broncos may be coming off a bye, but they have a big game w/ San Diego State on deck, so perhaps this one won't have their full attention. It will for BYU though as they've got a date at Mississippi State coming up next, so a loss here and a six-game losing streak is a real possibility. Them being a home dog of this size is very rare and the bye hasn't helped Boise State in the past as they're just 1-3 ATS the last four times playing w/ two or more weeks rest. 8* BYU

10* Connecticut (7:00 ET): UConn has the dishonorable distinction of being the worst ATS team in the country over the last 3+ seasons. They were a terrible 10-26-1 vs. the number in the Bob Diaco era, which - mercifully - lasted only three seasons. This year, Randy Edsall's return to Storrs was met w/ optimism. After all, it was Edsall that led the Huskies to a Fiesta Bowl appearance back in 2010 (before departing for his own unsuccessful tenure at Maryland). Unfortunately for Edsall, it's been more of the same as UConn has started this season 0-4 ATS (1-3 SU) including an incredibly bad beat LW at SMU. Early in the 4th quarter, they were tied w/ the 19-point favorite Mustangs, only to allow three touchdowns in a 7:22 span. Even worse is how those 3 TD's were allowed. They came after a blocked punt, turning the ball over on downs deep in their own territory and then a fumbled kick return. If I sound bitter, well, it's because I had the Huskies.

Memphis is off its own disheartening loss. The Tigers played a rescheduled date w/ UCF last week and were buried 40-13 as short road underdogs. It was a game Memphis desperately wanted to win (have now lost 10 straight to the Golden Knights), but instead were beaten soundly thanks to turning the ball over four times and giving up 600+ total yards. Considering it was the second time the Tigers flew into Orlando (game was originally postponed due to Hurricane Irma), the result was especially disheartening. 

So, the big question is who is more likely to be affected by last week's result? Well, I know that I wouldn't want to be the team laying two touchdowns on the road, that's for sure. Memphis might be 17-3 SU as a favorite the L3 seasons, but they are only 8-11-1 ATS. They've followed that pattern this season by failing to cover both games in which they were favored, against LA Monroe and S Illinois. Admittedly, those were large spreads. But so is this one and rarely are the Tigers asked to lay this many points away from the Liberty Bowl. They were DD chalk on the road just one time last year (Tulane) and failed to cover. These teams have met only twice before and each time the home side won in a blowout. I just have to think that after all this time, UConn is due for a cover as Edsall is desperate to breath life back into this program. 10* Connecticut.

8* NC State (8:00 ET): With this game taking place in Raleigh and NC State's homefield advantage factored in, I have the two teams basically rated even. Thus, there's some real value in taking the home dog. Louisville comes in ranked #17 overall as they are 4-1 SU w/ the lone loss coming to defending champ Clemson. They had a monster 676-80 edge in total yards last week vs. overmatched Murray State and the reigning Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson. But they're only 1-4 ATS as they were 40+ point favorites the L2 weeks. NC State is also 1-4 ATS, but has the most impressive win of these two teams, having beaten Florida State on the road, 27-21 as 11-point dogs. Last week, they were backdoored by Syracuse, giving up a late TD. But all that did is make the game seem closer than it really was and that helps to explain the value here. Take the points. 

NC State came into this season with lofty expectations, expecting to challenge the "big 3" in the ACC Atlantic: Clemson, Florida State and L'ville. They've already passed one major test, that being Florida State on the road. Granted, the Seminoles are not as strong as their preseason projection (due to injury to their starting QB). But that shouldn't hurt the Wolfpack's standing. Their loss took place in the season opener, against South Carolina, but that game saw them finish w/ a 504-236 edge in total yards (29-12 edge in first downs). They got back on track w/ a 37-20 win over a much improved Marshall team and haven't looked back since. In a clear "sandwich" spot LW, I was impressed w/ how they jumped all over Syracuse (led 26-7 at half). They scored on each of their first five possessions and for a fourth consecutive game didn't turn the ball over. The loss of RB Dakwa Nelson for the season hurts, but I expect this offense to still be able to move the ball.

A big reason why I expect this offense to continue to roll is QB Ryan Finley (a senior), who has yet to throw an INT this season and is completing 72.1% of his attempts (ranks 7th nationally). Defensively, this team has an excellent front seven, led by Bradley Chubb's 12 tackles for loss. The back end gets strengthened by the return of Dexter Wright. NC State is 4-3 SU all-time when facing a ranked foe at home on a Thursday night. This is a huge revenge spot as they lost at Louisville last year, 54-13, as 19-pt dogs. They trailed 44-0 at halftime, but it was also a horrible spot for the 'Pack as they were playing the 2nd of B2B road games and had just lost a heartbreaker to Clemson in overtime. This is a much better team this year (17 returning starters) and they're at home for a 2nd straight week. Since LY's fast start, the L'ville offense has failed to produce when stepping up in competition (scored only 21 pts vs. Clemson). 8* NC State

10* Ga Southern (8:00 ET): You can say that - in just a year's time - perception has swung radically in the Sun Belt as LY saw Georgia Southern check in as an eight-point ROAD FAVORITE against Arkansas State. They lost that game outright, 28-27, and would go on to finish only 4-4 SU in SBC play while getting outgained by 64.1 YPG. Arkansas State, who at the time of LY's matchup was 0-4 SU and coming off a loss to FCS school Central Arkansas, rallied to win eight of its final nine games (including bowl) and shared the league crown w/ Appalachian State. Needless to say, it appears that we now have just as much value on the dog as we did last year. Though 19-4 SU in Sun Belt road games the L6 seasons, this will mark only the third time that ASU has been favored (on the road) the L3 seasons. Take the points.

Last year's game saw Georgia Southern lead for all but 2:14 of actual game time. They blew a 26-17, giving up the GW TD pass w/ just nine seconds remaining. While 2nd year HC Tyson Summers has just 10 starters back from that team, certainly those that were involved will remember the game and be out for revenge. The Eagles are 9-3 SU in conf home games since joining the Sun Belt. After somewhat veering away from the option last season (which I thought was a mistake), they are more invested in it this season and following B2B games w/ 233+ rush yards, I expect them to find success running the ball in this matchup. Arkansas State's run defense was just gashed for 314 yards by SMU in their last game. It was the second time this year they allowed at least 225 yds on the ground.

Both teams have dropped a pair of road games to Power 5 opponents. Arkansas State opened by losing at Nebraska, 43-36, a game they never trailed by more than the pointspread of 14.5 (I had 'em!). Two Saturdays ago, they were beaten 44-21 by SMU, allowing nearly 600 total yards of offense. In between was a 48-3 win over Arkansas Pine Bluff w/ a +5 turnover margin. Georgia Southern has lost at both Auburn (cashed them there!) and Indiana, however, also lost to FCS New Hampshire. So they're 0-3 SU and desperate here. This team got only five home LY, which helps explain the decline, and this will be only the fourth time in three years that they've been getting points in Statesboro. They ended last season on a high note by upsetting Troy in the regular season finale. The only other time they were a home dog LY was against App State, who clearly was the best team in the Sun Belt. Consider that ASU QB Justice Hansen is not 100% right now (back) and the Red Wolves' run game ranks only 10th in the SBC at 120.7 YPG.  10* Georgia Southern

8* UNLV (10:30 ET): Because of that loss (as 45-pt favorites!) to FCS Howard, there's likely to be significant value on UNLV moving forward. Yes, that season opening loss was embarrassing. In fact, going by the pointspread, it was the biggest upset in College Football history. But the Rebels quickly bounced back w/ an impressive 44-16 win at Idaho (were 5-pt underdogs). Following a bye week, they went into "The Horseshoe" in Columbus last Saturday and covered against Ohio State, albeit as massive 39-pt dogs (lost 54-21). In terms of a week to week drop in class of opponent, you won't find many (if any?) situations quite like this on the 2017 CFB schedule as the Rebels go from facing a top 10 team on the road to a bottom 10 team at home. Lay the points! 

San Jose State is absolutely dreadful. Granted, with a new coaching staff, they were expected to "take their lumps" in 2017. I actually took them in the season opener, at home against an overrated USF team, and thanks to the Spartans jumping out to an early lead, they covered for me as 22-pt dogs (still lost 42-22). They followed w/ a 34-13 win over FCS school Cal Poly. Since then, it's been a string of ugly results for 1st year HC Brent Brennan: 56-0 at Texas, 54-16 at Utah and 61-10 last week at home to Utah State. Granted, you had two road games there against Power 5 foes, but against the spread SJSU is 0-3 ATS in those games. Brennan is a 1st time HC and both the OC and DC are first time coordinators. I think it's fair to label this as the worst team in the Mountain West this year. Turnovers haven't helped matters either as the Spartans have given it away 17 times already, including 10 in the last two games. 

San Jose State's defense is giving up a ghastly 565 yards per game thus far and I don't care what the schedule has been, that's awful. UNLV has a good offense (nine starters back from LY) and put up 40+ points in each of the first two games. So I look for them to move the ball "at will" in this one. Also of interest is that this is a huge revenge game for the Rebels. They have not beaten SJSU since 1994. That's seven straight losses including each of the last four seasons. Last year, they were three-point favorites on the road and fell 30-24. Two years ago here in Vegas, they lost in overtime as a three-point dog. This is their year to exercise all those demons. San Jose State is just 1-17 straight up as an underdog the L3 seasons and I see this being a "good, old fashioned" beatdown. 8* UNLV

8* Virginia Tech (8:00 ET): Clemson comes in ranked #2 in the country this week and they probably have a legit argument to be #1, not just because they beat #1 Alabama in the CFP Championship Game LY, but also due to to a pair of high profile wins this year over Auburn and Louisville (two Top 25 teams). This week finds the Tigers playing a third ranked foe in five weeks, again on the road, and eventually Dabo Swinney's luck is bound to run out. While Clemson is a perfect 11-0 SU as a road favorite the L3 seasons, they've covered the spread in only five of those games. Last week's 34-7 win over Boston College was a lot closer than the score looks as it was a 7-7 game entering the fourth quarter. This is a rematch of LY's ACC Championship Game where an inferior Va Tech team was able to stay within the 10-point spread (lost 42-35). Take the points in Blacksburg Saturday night.

Virginia Tech also comes in at 4-0 SU and is ranked #12 in the country. This is a team that won 10 games LY for Justin Fuente, who was in his first year trying to fill the shoes of the legendary Frank Beamer. One could say that Fuente's team arrived a "year ahead of schedule," but even having to replace their starting QB and top WR, the Hokies have not missed a beat so far in 2017. They started the season w/ an impressive 24-17 win here at home over West Virginia. Since then, it's been all blowouts as they've outscored three opponents 129-17 w/ a pair of shutouts. The offense might still be a bit of a work in progress, but it is averaging 40.0 PPG. But what I really like about this team is the defense (6th in PPG allowed) and special teams, both of which were always great in the Beamer years. (Fuente smartly retained longtime DC Bud Foster). 

Including LY's ACC Title Game, Clemson has now beaten Va Tech four straight times. Don't think that fact will be lost on the Hokies' coaching staff. Impressive as they've looked so far, remember the Tigers did have to replace DeShaun Watson, Wayne Gallman and Mike Williams this year. They were 6-1 SU in close games a year ago (those decided by 7 pts or less) after a 3-1 SU mark in them the year prior. Eventually, I feel one of these games has to go against them. Playing a third ranked foe in five weeks can catch up w/ a team, even one this talented. They are dealing with some injuries in their secondary and those could catch up with them here against a Va Tech offense that likes to push the tempo. Hokies QB Joshua Jackson is a dual threat w/ an 11-1 TD-INT ratio. Va Tech is 49-17 SU at home the L11 seasons and this will be only the EIGHTH time during that stretch that they will be the dog! ESPN Gameday will be in Blacksburg Saturday and this will be Clemson's first time visiting Lane Stadium since 2011. 8* Virginia Tech

10* South Alabama (7:00 ET): Both of these teams hurt me last Saturday. South Alabama, I was on, and they lost a heartbreaker in double OT (at home) to Idaho. It was a strange game w/ TWO weather delays, one lasting almost 2 1/2 hours, and the game took nearly seven hours to complete. Still, the Jaguars appeared in position to win as they led 20-13 w/ 90 seconds to go and Idaho was 61 yds away from the end zone. But the defense allowed a game-tying TD w/ just 13 seconds left on the clock and from there, it was more heartbreak. As for La Tech, they surprisingly competed at South Carolina, losing only 17-16 as 9.5-pt underdogs. Why that surprised me wasn't just the fact I was on USC. La Tech was coming off an emotional win their conference opener, an upset of C-USA favorite Western Kentucky the week prior. I'm taking the points here. 

Changes have been made in Mobile as a result of last week's loss. Offensive coordinator Bryant Vincent was shown the door by HC Joey Jones, who cited "expressed concern about our current status and what is best for our program moving forward." This was Vincent's third year on the job and his offenses never were able to average more than 25.5 PPG. Richard Owens, formerly the O-line coach, takes over. However, USA's real problem lies w/ the pointspread as they're now just 13-28-1 ATS the L4 seasons. That includes 5-12-1 since the start of last year. But, as underdogs, it's a lot easier to like them. Remember that this team upset both Mississippi State and San Diego State last year (lost outright three times as a favorite). They're a pretty respectable 4-7 SU in non-conf roadies since joining the Sun Belt in 2012. The big story coming out of Mobile this week centers around the QB position. Both Cole Garvin and Dallas Davis have gotten hurt this year, but this week it looks as if Garvin will get the nod. Davis injured his shoulder last week, but note that it was Garvin who won the job in the summer before getting hurt in the Oklahoma State game. Regardless, it will be nice to lean on a running game that averages 153 YPG, led by senior RB Xavier Johnson.

Perhaps I should have respected La Tech more last week. Or maybe, them jumping out to a 13-0 lead on South Carolina had something to do w/ the fact the Gamecocks were w/o their top playmaker, WR Deebo Samuel. Anyway, after playing B2B one-point games as underdogs, I look for this to be a bit of a letdown spot for the Bulldogs. In fact, this will be the first time La Tech has been favored over a FBS foe this year! Like South Alabama, they've played two power five foes and then there was the game at WKU. Though it was close last week in Columbia, La Tech was outgained 338-261. If I were them, I'd be concerned about a rush D that has allowed at least 133 yds in every game thus far. Especially considering USA just went for 244 on the ground last week. 10* South Alabama

8* Fla Atlantic (7:00 ET): Coming into the year, I said that Lane Kiffin was stepping into a pretty good situation here in Boca Raton. He was inherting the most experienced team in the country and all key metrics were pointing up after the Owls finished 2016 a disappointing 3-9 SU for predecessor Charlie Partridge. So that being said, I've been a little bit disappointed in the team starting out just 1-3 SU, though all three losses have come in the underdog role. I'd say the opener against Navy, which took place here at home (and I had them) was the most disappointing game of the bunch as FAU lost 42-19 as 8.5-pt dogs. Here though is a chance to make a big statement in the C-USA opener. They are catching Middle Tennessee at a most opportune time as the Blue Raiders are w/o QB Brent Stockstill and probably their top WR Richie James as well. I'll lay the short number.

The Stockstill-James combo, when healthy, is one of the best in the country. But w/ one out, or possibly both, the Blue Raiders' offense certainly looks a lot different. Granted, w/o either they were still able to beat Bowling Green last week (even w/ a -3 TO differential!), 24-13 as a touchdown choice. But that was at home and BG is absolutely dreadful. The FAU defense hasn't exactly faced the top passing attacks in the nation so far, but I don't see MTSU backup QB John Urzua throwing for another 290 yds like he did last week. Note that in his first start, which was on the road at Minnesota, Urzua threw for only 135 yards and had two interceptions. Now, FAU is not Minnesota. But the final score of that game two weeks ago was 34-3. The Blue Raiders' defense has failed to force a turnover in three of four games this year. It's been confirmed that Stockstill is out here and as for James (program's all-time leading receiver) he's listed as questionable w/ a high ankle sprain. Bottom line is this is a banged up team right now.

This is a huge game for Florida Atlantic, not just b/c Kiffin wants to win the conference opener, but also because the Owls have lost NINE straight times to the Blue Raiders by an average of 12 PPG. Last year was a somewhat insane 77-56 game in Murfreesboro, the regular season finale. By that point, FAU had nothing to play for w/ a lame-duck head coach. Things are a lot different this time around. Before LY, the previous three meetings were all decided by seven points or less, one in overtime and another by one point. The Owls went just 1-4 SU in games decided by three points or less LY and lost another one of those LW at Buffalo, 34-31. But MTSU is just 1-6 SU the L3 seasons in games where the spread is three points or less. It looks like the so-called "sharp money" agrees w/ my assessment here as despite three-quarters of the tickets being written on the dog, the line has moved up to a field goal as of this writing. 8* Fla Atlantic

8* Connecticut (4:00 ET): Needless to say, Randy Edsall's homecoming to Storrs has not been the rosy return the faithful had envisioned. Edsall coached here from 1999-2010, culminating in a Fiesta Bowl appearance that final season. Maryland didn't work out for the coach and three games into his return here, there's a long way to go. Going back to last season, the Huskies have now failed to cover 11 of their last 15 games (w/ one push). That's obviously not all Edsall's fault, but the team is 0-3 ATS this year including a pretty embarrassing home loss to East Carolina on Sunday, 41-38 as five-point chalk. I realize it's a short week here against a heavily favored opponent, but this is a good spot to back a desperate team getting a ton of points. 

SMU has been the exact opposite of UConn at the pay window as they're 4-0 ATS. They have lost a game, 56-36 at TCU, as 22-pt dogs. Given what the Horned Frogs did last week to Oklahoma State and that the Mustangs actually led that game early, it's certainly an excusable loss. They rebounded by blowing out Arkansas State last week, 44-21 (-3), here in Dallas. HC Chad Morris has been as good as advertised when it comes to turning this offense around, but this has all the makings of a lookahead spot. Next week, the Ponies will play at Houston in a key AAC West matchup. This is also somewhat uncharted territory as far as the pointspread is concerned. In Morris' first two years here, the Mustangs were favored a total of five times. Two of those were against FCS teams and two others were against North Texas. They've been favored three times already this year (not counting this game), one of them again vs. the Mean Green and another vs. a FCS team (SF Austin). Other than North Texas, SMU has never been favored by more than five points against any FBS team under Morris. 

UConn has lost the last two meetings vs. SMU and likely remembers the last one as they suffered the indignity of losing to an 0-11 SU team at home. It's amazing how far SMU has come since that time. This year, it's definitely helped the Mustangs that they've won the turnover battle in all four games. Not saying that they aren't much improved, but it certainly helps when every opponent turns it over multiple times. Defensively, the Mustangs remain a work in progress (to say the least) as they're giving up 513 YPG to FBS foes. That certainly makes it difficult to cover large spreads such as this. The silver lining in UConn's loss LW is that they put up nearly 600 total yds of offense. They even gained 434 in the 38-18 loss at a good Virginia team. 8* Connecticut

8* Indiana (3:30 ET): Penn State's streak of 13 consecutive ATS victories (12-1 SU) was snapped last week in a narrow escape against Iowa. They may have outgained the Hawkeyes 579-293 (w/ 29-11 edge in first downs!), but it took a TD on the final play just to pull out the SU win. While it's easy to take a look at that box score and say the game "shouldn't" have been so close, I expect the Nittany Lions to struggle against the pointspread moving forward. They caught the nation by surprise w/ LY's run that netted them the Big 10 Championship, but needless to say, they won't be sneaking up on any opponent this season. Only three times in LY's run were they DD favorites. This game makes it five straight times being DD chalk to open 2017. The spreads continue to catch up w/ the Nittany Lions here as Top 10 teams off a non-cover the previous week are just 44.6% ATS, if at home. 

Indiana started its year w/ a game at home against Ohio State. Though they ultimately lost and failed to cover (49-21 as 20.5-pt underdogs), that final score was a little misleading. They led at halftime and midway through the third quarter. QB Lagow threw for over 400 yds and first downs were virtually even for the game. While calling the result a "moral victory" might be debatable, there's no question that a 34-17 win at Virginia continues to look more and more impressive, especially considering what the Cavaliers just did in Boise last week. A home game vs. FIU was cancelled (Hurricane Irma) and then last week the Hoosiers routed Georgia Southern, 52-17, thanks to 282 yards rushing.

IU might be 1-19 all-time against Penn State, including 0-9 here in State College. But there have been some extenuating circumstances each of the last two years. The 2015 meeting here in Happy Valley, a 29-6 final, saw the Hoosiers enter in w/o their starting QB and RB. Then, last year, was a misleading 45-31 final. Indiana led 24-14 in the third quarter and then 31-28 early in the 4Q, only for the bottom to drop out. Two Hoosiers turnovers directly led to 10 PSU points. The Nittany Lions didn't even need to gain a single yard to kick a field goal and then w/ 38 seconds left, there was a fumble return for a TD. Very disappointing loss considering IU outgained the Nittany Lions 454-409 (-3 TO margin). An X-factor for this matchup comes by way of special teams. J-Shun Harris ranks third nationally, averaging 26.1 yards per punt return and has already scored two touchdowns. Look for the underdog to cover here. 8* Indiana

8* Tennessee (3:30 ET): Offshore books are offering a prop on the first SEC head coach to be fired and all of them have Tennessee's Butch Jones as the most likely to be canned. Certainly, a less than inspiring 17-13 win over UMass last week (as 28-pt favorites!) did his tenure no favors, particularly coming off the brutal 26-20 loss to Florida. But, from the "glass is half-full department," I'll point out that the Vols are that one hail mary away from being a 4-0 SU team. I concede that Jones' teams have consistently underachieved, but snapping a 26-game losing streak to Top 10 foes this week would go a LONG way in Jones getting back in the good graces of the boosters. That last UT win over a Top 10 team came against Georgia, back in '06. UGA is the opponent this week and while I won't say the Vols pull the upset, I like them plus the points here in an excellent "buy low" spot. 

Georgia, meanwhile, finds itself in virtually the same situation their opponent was in last week. Mississippi State arrived in Athens last Saturday night, fresh off a 37-7 beatdown of LSU. The tables were turned however as UGA handed them a beatdown, 31-3. Now its these Bulldogs that have to somehow find a way to deliver a second straight outstanding effort. Like Miss State, they'll have to do it on the road, but the situation differs here in that UGA is laying points. Something that you may need to be reminded of is that Kirby Smart's team is still working w/ a backup QB. True frosh Jake Fromm has led victories over Miss State and Notre Dame thus far, but the Georgia passing attack has yet to go for more than 201 yards in any game. Eventually, that will catch up w/ them, unless Fromm takes the proverbial "next step." Remember that it took a late FG to beat Notre Dame by just a single point in the team's first road game. 

Calling for a close game here is by no means "crazy." In fact, the last six meetings have all been decided by eight points or less while three of the last four have been decided by three points or less. Last year, Tennessee won on a 43-yard Hail Mary on the final play. Obviously, Georgia will be out for revenge, but sometimes that's easier said that done. The Bulldogs defense looked very good last week and has been that way all season, for that matter. But Tennessee happens to have the SEC's leading rusher, John Kelly, who averages 112.5 YPG. Georgia is just 3-6 ATS off its previous nine SEC victories while Tennessee is 4-2 ATS the L6 times it has been a dog, plus 7-3 ATS the L10 times it has taken on an opponent w/ a winning record. Note that when the "lookahead line" for this game was released over the summer, the Vols were 1-pt favorites. There's obviously been a massive swing in perception since that time. 8* Tennessee

8* Wisconsin (12:00 ET): Laying two scores in a conference game might seem like a challenging spot, especially when your opponent is rested, but Wisconsin is off a bye here as well. One of the top 10 teams in America, the Badgers should cruise here in Madison. Northwestern was expected to maybe be the Badgers' top challenger in the Big 10 West this season, but a 41-17 loss at Duke tempered any enthusiasm in Evanston. Wisky definitely won't take this game lightly as N'western upset them two years ago in Madison. Last year's 21-7 win actually snapped a two-game losing streak in the series. The Badgers rank in the top 17 in efficiency on both offense and defense while outscoring their first three opponents by 33 PPG and outgaining them by 263 YPG. They'll be too much for N'western in this early kick. 

Both of Northwestern's wins have come against bad teams, at home. Their victims were Nevada and Bowling Green, both of whom reside among the bottom 15 teams in the country. Note that they actually trailed Nevada late into the fourth quarter before scoring two TDs in the final five minutes. Bowling Green was a blowout, but Bowling Green is REALLY bad this year. The loss to Duke was the most telling game of the three. The Wildcats were outgained 538-191, on the road. They gained just 22 yds rushing on 21 carries. RB Justin Jackson had a career day against BGSU, but last year against Wisconsin he was held to 13 carries for 42 yards. I just don't see the necessary firepower here to compete. 

N'western's defense also figures to be in for a long afternoon going up against this Wisconsin offense. If they thought Duke was tough, wait until they get a look at the Badgers. Alex Hornibrook has proven to be one of the more efficient QB's in the nation. He completed 17 of 18 pass attempts in a 40-6 win over BYU two weeks ago (on the road!), four of them for touchdowns. He's completed 70% of his passes through three games w/ an 8-1 TD-INT ratio. A complimentary running game certainly helps and freshman RB Jonathan Taylor has come in and averaged 146 YPG. This is a team that owns the best point differential among Power 5 teams (130-30) and obviously a lot of credit has to go to the defense as well. They are 4th nationally in points allowed, having allowed only three TD's all year and zero second half points. They've given up just seven plays of 20+ yards, fifth fewest nationally. When two rested teams like this meet and the home team is ranked, the visitor is just 11-19 ATS since '05 if unranked. 8* Wisconsin

8* Illinois (8:00 ET): There are already numerous signs that the Mike Riley era may not be a long one in Lincoln. Sure, he led the team to nine wins last year. But after a 7-0 SU start to 2016, the Cornhuskers have lost 6 of their last 10 games. Coming into this year, virtually all key metrics were pointing down. Unfortunately, things have been even worse than expected. They're 2-2 SU and neither win (Arkansas State, Rutgers) was the least bit impressive. Furthemore, they're a somewhat miraculous second half "comeback" away from being 0-4 ATS. Their lone cover, at Oregon, saw them down 42-14 at the half. Inexplicably, the Ducks didn't score the entire 2nd half (still won 42-35 as 14-pt chalk). Throw in the fact that his AD has already been canned and Riley really has to be worried about his job security right now.

Meanwhile, Lovie Smith is hardly on solid ground in Champaign. Granted, he was inheriting somewhat of a mess, but the expectations of a former NFL HC will always be high. The Fighting Illini went just 3-9 SU in '16, Smith's first year on the job. However, despite being off a bad loss in their last game, there are at least signs of improvement. That's something you can't say for Nebraska. Illinois started 2-0 SU w/ wins over Ball State and Western Kentucky. Then they ran into a ranked USF team and were beaten down, 47-23, in a weeknight home game. The Illini have a big edge here in that they've been off for two full weeks while Nebraska is working on a short week. Saturday saw the Cornhuskers barely escape Rutgers, winning only 27-17. I had the dog there, making it two times I've already cashed going against Riley's team. Let's make it three. 

Neither offense here is very good. Nebraska QB Tanner Lee leads the nation in interceptions (9) and has the fourth lowest QBR among Power 5 signal callers. Granted, Illinois' Chayce Crouch's QBR is lower, but look for Smith to throw in a wrinkle here by rotating QB's (Jeff George likely to see time as well). The Illini have good receivers and Nebraska's pass defense is the worst in the Big 10. Illinois also gets back RB Reggie Corbin here and on the other side of the ball, DE James Crawford will also make his season debut (suspended first three games). Starting center Doug Kramer missed the L2 games, but is also expected back Friday night. So, in other words, the Illini is at close to full strength coming off a bye. Nebraska is dealing with several injuries (on both sides of the ball) on a short week. This is a tailor-made spot for Smith to pick up his biggest win yet while Nebraska seems on the road to bottoming out. Take the points. 8* Illinois

10* Utah State (8:00 ET): BYU stinks. That rather blunt assessment is not something you would have ever dreamed of saying about the contingent from Provo, but this particular edition REALLY struggles to move the ball. I'm so down on Kalani Sitake's bunch this year, that I don't think even having a week off to prepare here will cure what ails them. Utah State takes the "Battle for the Beehive Boot" quite seriously and is off a whitewashing of San Jose State last week, a 61-10 win as 1.5-pt road favorites. The Aggies were a good team to "buy low" on coming into the year as LY's 3-9 SU finish was easily the worst of the Matt Wells era. All four of their games thus far, whether a win or a loss (2-2 overall), have been blowouts and have gone Over. BYU is 0-4 ATS. This is likely to be a close one, but look for the home team (won 7 straight at home vs. non-conf opponents) to prevail. 

In four games, BYU has scored all of 39 points. Against FBS sides, they are averaging just 174 YPG. Granted, they've had to play LSU, Utah and Wisconsin. But you would have thought they'd be more competitive, especially at home. But Wisconsin destroyed them in Provo two weeks ago, 40-6 w/ 491-192 edge in total yds. LSU shut them out 27-0 and in between was a seventh straight loss to Utah (19-13). The Cougars lone win was against Portland State, but even that (20-6 final) wasn't impressive as they finished w/ fewer first downs than their FCS opponent. In fact, they have just 43 first downs total in four games! The offense has yet to throw for 200 yards in any game and backup Beau Hoge (Merrill's son) will again be pressed into duty, making his 1st ever start on the road. On the defensive side of the ball, the rush defense was gashed to the tune of nearly 6.0 YPC by Wisconsin and now will face an offense that ran for 318 yds last week. 

Utah State was also blown out by Wisconsin this year, but actually led 10-0 before surrendering the final 59 points. They also lost their best defensive player to a targeting call in that game, which completely turned things around (led 10-0 at the time of the ejection). This will be just the second home game of the year for the Aggies and I expect a fired up atmosphere even though this is not a national TV game. USU has lost 25 of the last 28 meetings to BYU, but as the spread indicates, this will be one of the few times the players feel that they have a legit chance of winning going into the game. Last year, they were 17-point dogs in Provo for a season finale where there was nothing to play for. This is a confident, short home dog this go around after a near 600-yard effort on the road last week. The defense posted the third highest efficiency rating of any team last week. 10* Utah State

8* Texas (8:00 ET): This will be the 1st time Texas has taken the field since suffering a heartbreaking loss to USC (in double overtime) back on 9.16. At 1-2 SU overall, it's definitely been a disappointing start to the Tom Herman era (lost opener to Maryland). While Herman was quick to gripe over expectations, the fact is the cupboard was not left bare for him in Austin. He inhertied 17 returning starters (10 on defense) from a talented group that consistently underperformed for predecessor Charlie Strong. All signs were pointing up for this year and it should be noted that despite LY's 3-6 SU finish, the 'Horns actually outgained their foes in conference play. One of the three wins came at the expense of Iowa State, 27-6 as 14-pt favorites. With better talent and better coaching this time around, I expect another win and cover for UT. 

Iowa State is 3-0 ATS, though they've played an FCS school (Northern Iowa) and lost a heartbreaker to Iowa in Week 2. I was impressed by how they bounced back from that loss, beating Akron 41-14 on the road two Saturdays ago. While they rolled up nearly 500 total yds there, a +3 turnover margin certainly helped as well. The Cyclones may impress some by the fact they've topped 40 points in all three games, but I'll call for their worst offensive effort of the season here. In last year's game w/ Texas, ISU was held to its lowest scoring output of the entire conference slate. They won only two Big 12 games in Matt Campbell's 1st year here and one was against Kansas. It should be pointed out that Texas also comes in averaging north of 40 PPG.

Note that the Longhorns almost pulled off the upset of USC despite having a backup, freshman Sam Ehlinger, at QB. Starter Shane Buechele has taken most of the first-team reps in practice this week and may be set to return. His return would only strengthen this play. While Iowa State benefited from turnovers in its last game, Texas was certainly hurt by them as they finished -3 in differential, including a goal-line fumble in OT. I realize that the Longhorns also have five non-offensive touchdowns already, but I can only assume that number will increase throughout the season. Meanwhile, I feel as if Iowa State's offense (which has scored 40+ pts in three straight games for the 1st time EVER) will certainly see its production decrease now that we've hit conference play. Keep in mind that you would have to go back to 2012 to find the last time any Iowa State team finished w/ more than three wins. Herman is 4-0 SU in his coaching career when he's had at least 12 days to prepare. Make it 5-0. 8* Texas

8* Arizona State (10:00 ET): The folks in Tempe are well accustomed to the heat, but I'm not sure anything is hotter right now than the seat Arizona State Todd Graham is sitting on as a 1-2 SU start has his six-year tenure here in real jeopardy. After B2B 10-win seasons in 2013 & '14, it's been B2B losing seasons in the desert and the bounce back some (myself included) thought might take place in 2017 has yet to materialize. To be fair, the Sun Devils were seven-point underdogs in last week's 52-45 loss at Texas Tech. Also, the loss to San Diego State that took place here at home two weeks ago no longer looks as bad w/ the Aztecs having since upset Stanford. So maybe things aren't as bad as they seem for Graham? All I know is I love the spot here for the Sun Devils as they're at home and hosting an Oregon squad laying double digits on the road for a second straight week. Take the points.

Arizona State did fall behind 21-3 in the 1st quarter and would go on to allow over 600 total yds (615 to be exact) LW at Texas Tech, but fought back valiently, even tying the game 45-45 in the 4Q. But the defense, a problem LY as well,  couldn't make a stop when needed and allowed TT to score the GW TD w/ under two minutes to go (capped 12-play, 90-yd drive). The week previous, it was a very even game w/ SD State, but allowing TWO touchdowns of 95+ yards (one a 99-yd kick return) was ultimately the Sun Devils' undoing. Offense has never been a problem under Graham, nor is it this season as QB Manny Wilkins has not thrown an INT in 149 pass attempts, a streak that dates back to last season. The backfield is back to full health w/ both Demario Richard and Kalen Ballage set to be on the field Sat night. WR N'Keal Harry is coming off a career game w/ 13 receptions for 148 yards. Overall, this offense is averaging 34 points and 412 yards per game. 

Oregon has an offense again under the direction of 1st year HC Willie Taggart. The Ducks, ranked again after a year absence in the polls, are rolling up over 600 YPG (2nd nationally) and have scored 42 pts in the 1st half of every game thus far. But it has been because of the defense that many feel there is a resurgence going on in Eugene. Me, I think it's been the schedule. After beating a FCS school (Southern Utah) in the season opener, the Ducks have beaten a Nebraska team that is not good by Power 5 standards and then a very overrated Wyoming team. The cover last week marked just the 2nd time in 11 tries that Oregon covered a double digit spread since Marcus Mariota left campus. They've beaten Arizona State 10 straight times, including 54-35 (as nine-point chalk) last season, but that final score was misleading as the underdog Sun Devils only trailed by five w/ just over six minutes to go. Not calling for an outright upset here, but the points certainly are plentiful as I need more proof before saying Oregon is "back." 8* Arizona State

8* Mississippi State (7:00 ET): Last week, my top play was on MSU, an underdog that I called to win outright. They did just that, but the size of that victory over LSU (37-7!) left me really impressed with this team. As a matter of fact, I'll go so far as to call this the second best team in the entire SEC right now. They are 3-0 SU/ATS, winning by an average margin of 38.4 points per game! While it's going to be difficult to match the intensity and emotion of last week's home game, I was impressed enough with the performance that I'm willing to go out on a limb and say this team is good enough that they need not solely rely on emotion. It's a road game this week, at a place no MSU team has won since 1956 (9 straight losses), but that means we're again able to grab a generous number. We didn't need the points last week and we may very well not need them again here. Yes, there's the danger of an overreaction to "just one game," but this is no overreaction. Mississippi State is simply that good. Take the points. 

Given that the SEC is down this year, Miss State has a very realistic shot at finishing second in the West behind Alabama (who they host in November). Dan Mullen has a history of getting his teams to overachieve in Starkville, but this year's team might just be his best. Thanks to a vicious defense and QB Nick Fitzgerald (next Tim Tebow?), the Bulldogs have outscored their three opponents thus far 143-28! They are second nationally in both defensive and overall efficiency. Fitzgerald, a Georgia native, will be highly motivated here. He accounted for four touchdowns a week ago (2 rushing, 2 passing). MSU is the ONLY team in the country to rank in the top 10 in scoring on both sides of the ball. I have to admit that I was really surprised at this number, just as I was w/ last week's, given how well the Bulldogs have played to this point. 

Are we all forgetting that UGA may be starting a backup QB again here? Starter Jacob Eason did return to practice this week, but is not expected to play Sat night. Instead, it will be true frosh Jake Fromm. (Regardless, this play stands). Fromm did help engineer the upset of Notre Dame, but that was a one-point game that could have gone either way. Plus, Mississippi State is a far better team than Notre Dame. Kirby Smart's defense won't give up the same way LSU's did last week, but MSU has so many options that may not matter. These teams do not play often (1st meeting since 2011), but an edge for the road dog is that their DC (Todd Grantham) served in the same capacity at Georgia up until 2013. A couple of grad assistants on the MSU staff also worked for the UGA program previously. Safety Jonathan Allen transferred from UGA two years ago. For a second straight week, I'm betting on Mississippi State. 8* Mississippi State

10* Syracuse (7:00 ET): Conventional wisdom would say LSU will be angry bunch here and "out for blood" against a lesser opponent. But speaking as someone who played AGAINST them last week, I can safely say this edition of the Bayou Bengals is not as good as advertised. They were thoroughly dominated in a 37-7 loss (as 7.5-pt road favorites) at Mississippi State, looking every bit the inferior team last Saturday night. Worse yet, it appeared as if the players simply "gave up" well before the game had come to its rightful conclusion, which doesn't exactly speak well to Ed Orgeron, who I believe will eventually be exposed as the uninspired hire he truly was. One bad loss is by no means the end of the world in Baton Rouge, but the news continues to get worse as RB Derrius Guice is out here due to an "undisclosed" injury. I liked Syracuse plus the points before that announcement, so you can imagine my enthusiasm now. Not to mention, TWO Tigers defensive starters are suspended for targeting last week, meaning they'll both miss the first half here. 

Syracuse football has been down for awhile, but Dino Babers was a good hire to lead the program. The Orange went just 4-8 SU in his first year, but returned 19 starters (tied for most in the nation!) for '17 and thus there's some renewed optimism here w/ the faithful thinking bowl game this year. That optimism took a hit two weeks ago w/ an outright loss at the Carrier Dome to Middle Tennessee, but they bounced back nicely LW w/ a 41-17 beatdown of Central Michigan (579 total yds offense!). Under Babers, this offense will continue to score. Facing a LSU defense that's down two starters should allow for them to get off to a good start and ensure they can stay within the generous spread. 

Having a freshman take the place of Donnie Alexander is a real downgrade for that Tigers defense, which quite frankly was sloppy last week and committed way too many penalties. Syracuse is 4-2 ATS as an underdog of 21.5 to 31 points the L2 seasons including an easy cover vs. this opponent in '15 at the Carrier Dome. They lost only 34-24 to a better LSU team. They're on the road this time, but they're a better team as well. LSU is just 2-8 ATS in the month of September the L3 seasons. Needless to say, I don't see them bouncing back w/ the fervor you might expect in this spot. They're not at full strength and will be playing front of a crowd that's likely to be less than enthusiastic. Jump on this one quickly. 10* Syracuse

8* Rutgers (3:30 ET): Needless to say, things are not trending up right now in Lincoln. Nebraska has dropped B2B games, first to Oregon and then to Northern Illinois, and that has has HC Mike Riley firmly on the hot season. The Cornhuskers were very lucky to even cover two weeks ago in Eugene as they trailed 42-14 at the break, but shockingly Oregon was held w/o a point the entire second half (took their foot off the gas?). Then last week brought yet another dreadful start as NIU returned TWO interceptions for touchdowns, thus overcoming the fact Nebraska allowed only 213 total yds. Remember that I played against this team in Week 1 as well as they never were "in the money" vs. Arkansas State, winning only 43-36 as 14.5 pt favorites. While Riley is 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS off B2B SU losses in his time here, I want no part of laying points with this team, particularly double digits. 

Rutgers has suffered some severe "growing pains" since going a respectable 3-5 SU their first year in the Big 10 (2014). They've won just 1 of 16 conference games since and that lone victory came in the middle of the 2015 season. Last year saw them outgained by 231.2 yards and outscored by 30 points per game in Big 10 play. But this year, while they are still unlikely to escape the basement, the Scarlet Knights project to be much improved. They played Washington (playoff team from LY) tough in the opener, losing only 30-14 as four-TD underdogs at home. The following week was a major disappointment as they lost outright (were six-point favorites) at home to Eastern Michigan, 16-13 (led 13-10 in 2H). Last week saw them finally pick up a victory, 65-0 over a terrible Morgan State squad, which - if nothing else - will give them a bit of confidence heading into the conference opener. Freshman QB Jonathan Lewis accounted for five touchdowns in mop-up duty and I'm really hoping HC Chris Ash starts to turn to him more now, rather than Kyle Bolin. 

While Ash is well aware who is QB of the future (if not present) should be, Riley is at a bit of a "crossroads" right now w/ Tanner Lee, despite him being just three starts into his Nebraska career. A transfer from Tulane, Lee is only completing 52.5% of his passes and has already thrown SEVEN interceptions. The turnover bug will continue to prevent Nebraska from covering spreads such as this one if it's not remedied soon. As I said in my analysis for their first game though, the Cornhuskers were set to regress anyway this year as they are far less experienced now compared to 2016. Rutgers may not win this game, but they are a lot better now than the teams that lost to Nebraska by an average of 17.5 pts in 2014 and '15 (did not play LY). Another reason for optimism in New Brunswick is this year the Scarlet Knights will have the services of the dynamic Janorian Grant (WR) for Big 10 play (played only 4 gms LY), who is also a special teams ace. The Scarlet Knights played Iowa, Minnesota and Indiana tough a year go, losing to all by 7 pts or less. Offensively, they are in a much better position this year w/ Jerry Kill as the coordinator and defensively, their coordinator is Jay Niemann, who formerly served at Northern Illinois - a stop unit that just gave Nebraska fits. The Cornhuskers' avg time of possession ranks near the bottom of FBS and w/ Kill a run-heavy offense should play keep away here. 8* Rutgers

8* South Carolina (3:30 ET): This - I believe - is the lone matchup on the Saturday slate where we have a team off an outright loss as a favorite playing a team off an outright win as a dog and both are again in the same role this week. In fact, the favorite has yet to win, let alone cover, in any of South Carolina's three games this season. The Gamecocks seemed to have some positive momentum after a 2-0 SU start that saw them beat NC State and Missouri, both away from home. But then last week it was they who fell victim to an upset, losing 23-13 to Kentucky (here at home). As for La Tech, they are off a big C-USA road win, 23-22 over preseason favorite Western Kentucky (GW field goal came w/ two seconds left). Because of the disparate results from last week, bettors have pushed this number down far lower than it ought to be and there's substantial value w/ the chalk. Lay the points.

Perhaps we should have seen South Carolina's upset at the hands of UK coming. After all, they were outgained in both victories, giving up 500 total yards to NC State and 423 to Missouri. But w/ 16 starters back from LY, Will Muschamp's team should be just fine. They've played nothing but Power 5 foes to the points, so this drop in class (only non-SEC game in a six-week span) should be a "walk in the park" by comparison. Muschamp's defense will face a QB in J'Mar Smith that is only completing 51.5% of his passes to this point. This is not the same Bulldogs offense as last year when they put up the second most points per game in the country (behind only W Kentucky). They lost not only their starting QB but both top receivers as well. We've already seen La Tech take on one SEC team so far this year and it did not go well as they were buried 57-21 at home by Mississippi State. 

I really don't like the spot La Tech finds itself in this week as they are traveling for a second straight game following a big conference upset. They rallied from nine down in the 4Q to beat WKU last week and never led until two seconds were remaining on the clock. They were very fortunate to win. Last week, we saw a Central Michigan team in a similar spot, fresh off a beatdown of Kansas on the road (were underdogs) and they came out flat, losing 41-17 at Syracuse. The fact that it was a conference win for La Tech last week only makes the letdown seem more inevitable here. As for South Carolina, they certainly started strong last wk, scoring on a 68 yd TD pass on the first play from scrimmage. At that point, the Gamecock faithful had to be thinking Top 25 (as in they'd be ranked). But it was not to be. However, this week should atone for that performance as they are 40-1 SU when hosting non-conference opponents. The loss of WR Deebo Samuel (for the season) won't matter here. 8* South Carolina

8* Vanderbilt (3:30 ET): No one ever "feels good" when getting ready to play Alabama, but the bottom line is that this time around, Vandy has to feel like it at least has a fighting chance. The Commodores are 3-0 SU after an upset of #18 Kansas State last week here in Nashville. This will be the first time in a long-time that the CBS cameras are on campus for the big national TV game. It's Alabama's first visit here since '07 and b/c they aren't in the same division, it's the first meeting of any kind since '11. The importance of this game was not lost on HC Derek Mason back in August when he said  "So when we line up to play Alabama, we got to line up to play Alabama. ... When we face Alabama, we're going to be ready to play." To some, this has all the makings of a giant letdown for the Commies, but they have a defense good enough to keep them well inside the number. Take the points.

Bama is of course also 3-0 SU coming into this game and ranked #1 in the country. But despite an average margin of victory of 22 PPG, the Tide are hardly "rolling" coming into this SEC opener. They failed to cover against two Mt West teams, Fresno State and Colorado State, in Tuscaloosa. Granted both spreads were huge, but at no point in either game were they even covering. Last week saw the defense give up nearly 400 yards at home. Then, we must revisit the less than impressive season opener against Florida State, a game where they heavily relied on a +3 turnover margin as the offense gained only 269 total yds. This will be the best defense they've seen since then. (Vandy has allowed just 13 pts in three games!). In fact, Vandy comes in ranked 11th in defensive efficiency nationally! 

Look, Alabama is probably going to win this game. They last lost to Vanderbilt in 1993 (12 straight wins by 15 PPG) and are 23-1 SU vs. the SEC East since '09 w/ 18 straight wins. I wouldn't call next week's home game vs. Ole Miss a "look ahead," but the Rebels have given the Tide problems in recent years and that could be on the coaching staff's mind here. As for the best Vandy team in Mason's four years here, it's all about Saturday afternoon and you have to figure they are gonna give the top ranked team in the country their best shot. Provided the Commodores can put up a couple touchdowns here (nine returning starters on offense from LY), I see no reason why they won't stay inside this very generous number. They've covered 8 of 11 against teams w/ winning records and are 4-2 ATS the L2 seasons as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 pts. 8* Vanderbilt

8* South Alabama (2:00 ET): Idaho certainly played "well enough" to win last week at Western Michigan (outgained them 399-347), but ultimately came up short in a 37-28 loss at Kalamazoo. Now the Vandals, who I projected to regress anyway (finished 9-4 SU last year), find themselves playing the second of B2B road games. This is a tough spot as they've had to go from Moscow (Idaho, not Russia!) to Kalamazoo to Mobile in three straight weeks. That's a lot of travel. As for South Alabama, they too are 1-2 SU, but note they opened their season w/ a pair of Power 5 opponents (Ole Miss, Oklahoma State). Therefore, last week was a welcome reprieve as they got to welcome in Alabama A&M, which turned out to be a 45-0 win. I like the setup here far more from the USA perspective and will gladly lay the short number. 

Much of the rationale for this play has to do w/ the idea of regression to the mean. USA has not been a great spread team the last few seasons, including a 3-10 ATS mark in '16. They've covered just 4 of their last 16 conference games. Sure enough, they lost at Idaho last season, 38-31 as a five-point underdog. The Jaguars initially trailed 14-0, but rallied back to take a 28-24 lead early in the 2nd half. The game ended w/ USA in Idaho territory as the potential game-tying TD was incomplete. Such a result was indicative of Idaho's 2016 season as they finished 9-4 SU thanks to four upsets and a 4-0 SU mark in games decided by 7 pts or less. The Vandals have covered 12 of their 16 Sun Belt games, but the respect they are getting here from the oddsmakers seems like too much. USA might be only 3-7 ATS the L10 times it has been favored, but they've won 8 of those games straight up.

Let's not forget that it was just two weeks ago that Idaho lost to UNLV, a team that was one week removed from historic loss (were 45-pt favorites) to FCS Howard. Not only did they lose to UNLV, at home, but the final score was 44-16! Having played the likes of Ole Miss and Oklahoma State, this will be a huge drop in class for USA. The Jaguars are also 6-3 SU at home the L2 seasons. We need not be concerned w/ them starting Dallas Davis at QB again (starter Cole Garvin still injured) as not only did Davis throw for 255 yards last week, but he was the starter last season before losing the gig due to his own injury (shoulder). South Alabama was a bowl team last year and even beat a ranked San Diego State team here in Ladd-Peebles Stadium. Idaho, who remember is moving down to FCS next season, has not won a conference opener in three years. They lost their last visit to Mobile, 52-45, after blowing a 24-0 lead. 8* South Alabama

10* Arizona (10:30 ET): The Wildcats beat the Utes each of the latter's first four years in the Pac 12, three times as a dog, thus they also were a perfect 4-0 ATS. But last year was a down year in Tucson as Rich Rod's team went just 3-9 SU/2-10 ATS and missed out on the postseason for the 1st time in his tenure. They're a prime candidate to bounce back in 2017, at least in my opinion, and though they did lose here at home to Houston (19-16), they come into the Pac 12 opener at 2-1 SU, fresh off a 63-16 beatdown of UTEP (on the road) last Friday. Utah is both perfect straight up and against the spread thus far (3-0) including a seventh straight win in the "Holy War" vs. rival BYU. They too are off a lopsided victory, theirs coming Saturday night, 54-16 over San Jose State. But I'm not as high on the Utes in '17 and quite frankly am glad they're still unbeaten as that makes them pride fade material in this first conference game of the season.

Those four straight covers Arizona had over Utah saw them cover the spread by a combined 69 points! They led LY, in Salt Lake mind you, 14-12 at half but would be outscored 24-9 after that, mainly thanks to turnovers. In fact, the Wildcats finished the game w/ a slight edge in total yds (475-455), but that was undone by a -3 turnover margin (2 INT's in 3Q). Note Utah was coming in off a loss last year, as was Arizona, but the Wildcats were caught in the second of B2B road games. As I stated earlier, UA is much improved this year as Anu Solomon has thankfully been run off campus (Baylor) and Brandon Dawkins is firmly entrenched as the starting QB. Last week against UTEP, Dawkins accounted for SIX touchdowns, three of them rushing. Don't be surprised if he ends up being the difference maker Friday night.

Yes, it was UTEP, but the 63-16 margin of victory is made more impressive by the fact Arizona didn't even score in the first quarter! I've also been impressed w/ improvement on the other side of the ball as they've allowed just 18 pts the L6 quarters, going back to the Houston game (allowed only 2 pts in 2H). Early returns on the new Utah offense (more pass-heavy) seem promising w/ Tyler Huntley (4 TD's last week) leading the way, but let's see how they do in conference play. Arizona's rushing attack has been the difference in the past against the Utes, so don't be surprised if the favorite - again - struggles to stop the read option. The Wildcats are averaging 328 yards rushing so far, thanks to the talented duo of JJ Taylor and Nick Wilson, plus Dawkins. 10* Arizona

8* Fresno State (9:30 ET): We knew Jeff Tedford was walking into a pretty ugly situation here at Fresno State, but no 1st year HC deserves the non-conference schedule he got. OK, things started off well enough w/ a "layup" against Incarnate Ward, a debut that saw the Bulldogs win 66-0 w/ a 513-148 edge in total yds (allowed -7 yds rushing). But this venture up to Washington will mark the second leg of one of the most brutal back to back's I've seen any team face in recent years. Last week, it was a trip to Alabama, so that's B2B playoff teams on the road for a team that went 1-11 SU in '16. That all being said, I'm taking FSU here, just like last week. The Bulldogs were never really in danger of not covering LW (were +43) as they lost "only" 41-10. Washington is not better than 'Bama, so once again this looks like an overlay and I'll happily grab the huge number.

Washington is again a Top 10 team (currently #6), but they sleepwalked through the opener, what ended up being only a 30-14 win at Rutgers (closed -28). Last week saw them bury Montana 63-7, forcing four turnovers and allowing just 163 total yds. But w/ the conference opener on deck, a rematch of LY's Pac 12 Title Game no less (at Colorado), this sets up as a bit of a lookahead from the favorite's perspective. There's almost no margin for error here from the favorite's perspective. Last week, I said Fresno State deserved to be more like a 5 TD dog to 'Bama as opposed to a 6 TD dog. Similar story here as this line should be between 3 and 4 TD's, not 4 and 5. There's also some familiarity with the coaching staffs as Tedford served as a consultant at UW, thus he knows the playbook. 

It wouldn't be right to call last week's game at Alabama "competitive," but Fresno State never trailed by more than the final margin. The defense even held the Tide to a FG after an INT put them at the FSU 5-yard line. They couldn't stop Alabama from running the ball, but Washington's ground game is nowhere close to as prolific. The two keys here for the dog are (1) limit turnovers and (2) don't punt to Dante Pettis, who has a Pac 12 record seven return TD's in his career, including two already this season. Fresno Staet is far better than they were last year and while it's brutal facing B2B playoff teams on the road, note that non-Power 5 teams facing B2B Top 10 teams are 11-4 ATS in the second leg. 8* Fresno State

8* Western Michigan (7:00 ET): Flash back to LY's Mid-American Conference Championship Game and Western Michigan was "putting a bow" on a remarkable 13-0 SU regular season that was among the best ever produced by a MAC school. They haven't won since and PJ Fleck is gone. They didn't cover that MAC Title Game against Ohio either, so that makes it four straight ATS losses for the Broncos coming into this week. Now the three straight losses are excusable here. Two were against Top 10 teams (Wisconsin and USC) and then last week they were at Michigan State. But still, a three-game losing skid is something this fanbase is not accustomed to seeing. Fortunately, that's where Idaho comes in. The Vandals, playing their final seasons as a FBS program, lost 44-16 to UNLV last week - at home. That's the same UNLV team that had just suffered a historic loss (as 45-pt favorites) to Howad the week before. I'm looking for this to be a good old fashioned beatdown. 

In starting 0-2, Western Michigan now has more losses this year than they did all of last. But who they've faced has a lot to do with that and I did not expect them to beat either USC or Michigan State (both road games). Though they eventually fell 49-31, the Broncos did play Southern Cal quite tough as it was a tie game midway through the fourth quarter. Last week against Michigan State, the offense simply "wasn't there." This will be a bit of a challenge for 1st year HC Tim Lester to get his team motivated to beat an easy opponent, following B2B disappointing losses. But getting his 1st win, in the home opener, should be a priority and the Broncos should respond in kind. While you couldn't possibly expect a repeat from LY, this remains a really talented team in Kalamazoo, which is more than I can say for the contingent from Moscow, ID. 

This is a strange year for Idaho as they're getting set to transition down to the FCS level next year. So motivation may be lacking at times. Last week was certainly a bad sign as they gave up 550 yards to UNLV, who had just lost to a FCS program (as 45-pt favorites!) the week before. It was a 10-3 game at halftime, but things quickly spiraled out of control from there. Believe it or not, that loss snapped a six-game win streak for the Vandals going back to LY. But like WMU, this year's team is not as strong as the 2016 version (went 9-4 SU) as they have just 10 starters back and all signs are pointing down. Despite that 9-4 SU record a year ago, Idaho was actually outscored and outgained. They've made this trip before, but not since 2010 and three years ago they lost to the Broncos 45-33 at home. The Vandals are also just 1-16 SU the L17 seasons in road openers. 8* Western Michigan

10* Mississippi State (7:00 ET): It's only been two weeks, but in terms of teams that are being overlooked right now, Mississippi State has to be on the short list. Maybe it's just the "Alabama effect," but overall, the SEC seems "down" this year. LSU and Auburn were really the only teams cited as potential challengers to the Crimson Tide's throne. But HC Dan Mullen typically has his Bulldogs playing above expectations and 2017 seems no different. MSU has won its first two games by a combined score of 106-21 due to a combination of vicious defense and stellar QB play from Nick Fitzgerald. This game has "upset" written all over it an in fact the Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS as a home dog of 7.5 to 10 pts, winning three of those games straight up. Take the points here. 

In Week 1, MSU destroyed Charleston Southern (FCS) 49-0, holding the Buccaneers to just two first downs and 33 total yards - for the game! As remarkable as that reads, they were just as dominant LW at La Tech, DT Jeffrey Simmons in particular. The sophomore scored two touchdowns (yes, you read that right!), one on a blocked punt, the other a 90-yd fumble return. He also blocked a PAT.  Of course, the offense putting up 459 yds helps as well. Fitzgerald is already making people forget about Dak Prescott and he's compliment by a strong RB duo of Aeris Williams and Kylin Hill. Mississippi State currently finds itself in the "others receiving votes" category, but to my eyes, this is a very much a Top 25 team. They have the better QB in this matchup (easily!) and more than enough talent to compete w/ LSU. 

LSU is also 2-0 w/ a shutout in its first game (27-0 over BYU). That shutout looks a little less impressive though if you've seen BYU play this year (have yet to throw for 200+ yds in any game). Last week was an easy 45-10 win over UT-Chattanooga for the Bayou Bengals. While MSU's Simmons is set to have a break out year, LSU could be w/o its top D-lineman for this game, Rashard Lawrence, as he's still battling an ankle injury. Additionally, while LB/DE Arden Key will start for the 1st time since offseason shoulder surgery, his conditioning is such that he'll have to be subbed out frequently. That could leave the Tigers' defense vulnerable against Fitzgerald. Each of the last three meetings between these two SEC West rivals have been decided by five points or less and LY the Bulldogs shut LSU's offense out in the 2H, allowing just 89 total yds. This year's team is much better - on both sides of the ball. Going back to the end of 2013, Miss State is 9-2 ATS its L11 times getting points. LSU would be very lucky to escape Starkville w/ a win Saturday night. 10* Mississippi State

8* Air Force (12:00 ET): If you were to simply look at the box scores from Michigan's first two games, it could reasonably be concluded that that the 7th ranked Wolveriners dominated both Florida and Cincinnati. However, speaking as someone who watched virtually every snap of both games, I know that not to be the case. It took a 433-192 edge in total yards to overcome not one, but two, Wilton Speight pick-six's. Then, they may have outgained Cincinnati similarly (414-200) in a 36-14 win, but it was somewhat "touch and go" going into the 4th quarter (led only 24-14). Then there's the matter that their own defense has scored three of the touchdowns thus far. Now the Maize and Blue face a relatively quick turnaround against a rested service academy that runs an offense (triple option) they don't see in the Big 10. Throw in the fact that service academies are 11-4 ATS vs. Top 10 teams since '05 and I'm taking the points here. 

Air Force got an early season bye last week. Like Michigan, the Flyboys are a team that didn't return a lot of starters from last season. In fact, they have just one back (same as Michigan) on the defensive side of the ball and only seven total (two more than Michigan). Like most service academies though, the AFA is used to losing the majority of starters to graduation every year. Luckily, they got to open up against VMI two weeks ago. That went about how you'd expect, although the Falcons' efficiency still impressed me in a 62-0 win w/ a 647-95 edge in total yds. The triple option went for 457 of those yards on the ground. The extra week to prepare here is meaningful as is the fact the AFA has covered six straight times as an underdog of more than three touchdowns. They're also 6-2 ATS when getting any points the L3 seasons.

Michigan's defense is again outstanding, but questions linger about QB Speight, who simply turns the ball over too much and isn't that good. With Air Force figuring to run the ball the majority of the time, this figures to be a conservative game w/ not many points scored. It also matters that the Wolverines haven't faced the triple option since 2012 ... when they hosted Air Force. That was prior to the current coaching staff, led by Jim Harbaugh. With the Big 10 opener (at Purdue) on deck, I just can't see Michigan being "out for blood" here or winning by a margin greater than what the oddsmakers are calling for here. Air Force was a 10-win team a year ago and has won seven straight overall. So they're no pushover. They're a far more talented team than Cincinnati, that's for sure. 8* Air Force

8* Akron (12:00 ET): When it comes to "terrible spots," I'm not sure any team in America finds itself in a worse one this weekend that Iowa State does. The Cylcones just lost a heartbreaker last Saturday at home to in-state rival Iowa (blew 10 pt lead in 4Q) and now have to turn around and lay points on the road against an unfamiliar opponent. Bettors seem to be overlooking this situation, having pushed this number up throughout the week, possibly because they only know Akron from its 52-0 loss to Penn State in the season opener. But Terry Bowden's Zips are nowhere near as bad as they looked in Happy Valley two weeks ago. They are a much improved team from last year and Saturday's game is a big one for the program as it's a rare visit from a Power 5 schools (only 2nd time in Bowden's six years here). Take the points. 

I made it a point to read a lot of the local press concerning ISU this week and not much of it is flattering. The word "crossroads" was used quite frequently to describe the state of things under Matt Campbell, which is probably unfair given that this is the HC's second year in Ames. But objectivity is something you should never expect from any college football fanbase. Still, the Cyclones ought to be kicking themselves for the way they let the Iowa game slip away last week. They allowed 17 pts in the final 6:25 of regulation before losing 47-44 in overtime, their third straight loss in the Cy-Hawk rivalry. The defense continues to be bad as it surrended nearly 500 total yds to Iowa last week and it's not like anyone has ever accused the Hawkeyes of being "explosive." The ISU defense allowed 31.3 PPG in Campbell's 1st year here (4th straight year giving up 30+ PPG) and continues to be an albatross.

After getting shellacked by Penn State, Akron desperately needed an easy game and last week FCS school Ark Pine Bluff was eager to oblige. The Zips won the home opener 52-3 as QB Thomas Woodson was even allowed to rest in the second half. Woodson threw for 300+ yards in five of the seven full games he played last season, so this looks to be another offense that can potentially take advantage of the sieve that is the ISU stop unit. Akron has 15 starters back this year, so like I said earlier, there is a sense of optimism that they'll be bowling again just like two years ago. There's some familiarity between the two coaching staffs here as Campbell previously served as HC at Toledo, a MAC rival of Akron's. I just think the disappointment of losing again to Iowa will be hard to overcome for the ISU players, who are unaccustomed to laying this many points on the road. The Cyclones have been road favorites only six times in the last decade and covered just once in the role since '09. Last year, they won by only seven (31-24) as 11-pt chalk at Kansas. It will be a struggle just to win this game. 8* Akron

10* Illinois (7:00 ET): Turns out that USF may not be as good as previously advertised and their desire to get back on track has been impacted by Hurricane Irma. I played against the Bulls in their season opener as they struggled to just beat a bad San Jose State team. The cover was never really in question there as SJSU jumped out to a 16-0 lead and lost "only" 42-22 as 22-pt dogs. You would have thought, coming off such an uninspired start, that USF would look to dominate its next time out, facing a FCS opponent. But you would have thought wrong. The Bulls trailed Stony Brook at halftime (10-7) before eventually prevailing 31-17 (scored the game's final 2 TD's). But again, the slow start doomed them as they never came close to covering a 33.5-pt number. Then last week's game against UConn (conf opener) was cancelled due to Irma. Now, it's another double digit number they face, only this time facing an opponent from a Power 5 conference. I think I'll take the points here. 

Illinois has started 2-0 SU as well, beating Ball State and Western Kentucky, both at home. This is Lovie Smith's second year in Champaign-Urbana and coming off a 3-9 2016, there's still work to be done. But the fact they can equal LY's win total in September is at least a promising start. Despite being surrounded by some decemt skill position talent and a solid offensive line, QB Chayce Crouch remains a bit of question mark. Back in the Spring, he was not even expected to be the starter here as JUCO transfer Dwyane Lawson was set to come in. But that didn't happen. Smith seems to, however, have developed a strong defense. Last week, the Illini held Western Kentucky to just 244 total yds (only SIX rushing!) and that's no small feat. Consider that last year the Hilltoppers averaged 45.5 PPG en route to a C-USA Title and brought back their starting QB! That was a week after the Illini held Ball State's offense in relative check. 

There was some doubt over whether or not this game would be played due to Irma. Last week's game vs. UConn was on the road, but USF obviously could not get out of Tampa. There figures to be a lot of emotion in Raymond James Stadium Friday night and I suspect that is why this number has been bet up steadily during the week. But emotion can only carry a team so far. USF clearly is not living up to advanced billing and I think it's crazy to see them ranked in the Top 25. Yes, there is talent, but HC Charlie Strong "lost more w/ more" at Texas. Also, it should be pointed out that LY's team which finished 11-2 SU only outgained its AAC foes by 14.6 YPG. USF is just 1-4 SU hosting Power 5 teams dating back to 2013. Illinois' defense will keep them in this one. Take the points. 10* Illinois

10* Boise State (8:00 ET): I had already made up my mind on Boise St for this Thursday night affair before news broke that New Mexico was investigating HC Bob Davie for alleged player mistreatment and a compromised drug testing program. According to reports, former players "felt awkward around [Davie]" and said he had "no personal relationship with players." That certainly doesn't speak well to the state of this program and it's an obvious distraction heading into this game. Believe it or not, the Lobos had a 5-game ATS win streak over BSU from 2011-15. That included the largest MOV by a road team at Albertsons Stadium (7 points!) since '91! The Lobos were 31-pt underdogs in that SU win two years ago and it's still their ONLY win over the Broncos. BSU got revenge LY winning 49-21 as 18-pt chalk in Albuquerque. 

Even before this whole Davie situation arose, this matchup figured to be "tough sledding" for UNM. The Lobos returned only 10 starters from LY's team which won nine games, including a bowl (best season since '07). There's just three starters back on a defense that allowed 32.4 PPG LY, fifth most in the MWC. That can be viewed one of two ways: either "good riddance" or you cringe over how the replacements are likely to perform. Given last week's outright loss (as 7.5-pt chalk) at home to in-state rival New Mexico State where the defense surrendered 500 total yards, it's likely to be more of the latter. Those 500 yards that were allowed was against one of the worst FBS teams, mind you. Now four turnovers certainly didn't help the Lobos cause there, but the bottom line is they trailed 30-5 heading into the 4Q. 

Boise State is also off a tough loss, theirs coming at Washington State, however. That's a ranked foe, on the road, and the game went to triple overtime. The Broncos blew a three TD lead in the fourth quarter before eventually falling 47-44. While some might be of the opinion that will be a tough loss to overcome, I think the favorite will be "out for blood" here. Compared to past seasons, Boise is really flying under the radar here in 2017 and that seems like a good opportunity to get back on the bandwagon. This team has an experienced signal-caller in Brett Rypien (3,646 yds LY), who has to be salivating at facing a defense that allowed 400 yds passsing last week. A weekday game on the blue turf should have the home faithful fired up here and I'm expecting a big win. 10* Boise State

8* Stanford (8:30 ET): This will be another early season installment of "the better team is getting points." Certainly, the USC faithful will say that I'm overreacting to their closer-than-expected 49-31 win over Western Michigan (closed -28) in the opener. Sure, the Trojans were able to pull away late and had a 521-357 edge in total yards. But first downs were relatively even (25-24 in USC's favor) and they led by only four w/ just under five minutes to go. A late INT return for a TD made the final score more lopsided than it "should" have been. Especially troubling was the Trojans defense giving up 263 yards on 5.5 per carry. QB Sam Darnold also failed to justify the hype surrounding him being the NFL's #1 overall draft choice next Spring.  Now USC will be facing a better defense and ground game. Take the points.

Stanford enters this game both rested (off last week) and confident (7-2 L9 matchups vs. USC). Both losses to the Trojans in those last nine meetings came by only a field goal, so I see no reason to expect USC to do something they haven't done in a decade and that's beat the Cardinal by more than a touchdown. Last year's game saw Stanford win 27-10 as eight-point chalk. I see no reason to justify the sharp turn in the marketplace for this year's meeting. The Cardinal are 3-0 SU vs. the Trojans the L2 seasons (beat them in '15 Pac Title Game). Everyone keeps talking about how much better USC is this year, but Stanford finished last year just as hot and is also improved in 2017 (despite losing key players to the NFL on both sides of the ball). With 16 starters back, they whipped Rice in the season opener, 62-7 w/ 656 yds of total offense.

The extra week to prepare, a result of Stanford playing Rice in Australia, is huge for the underdog here. Speaking of "underdog," HC David Shaw is 7-2-1 ATS taking points in his six years in Palo Alto. Again, I'm not "overreacting" to USC last week. Rather, I wasn't as high on them as many others coming into the year! I just think this is a bad line for a game that I expected to be decided by less than one score, either way. USC returned fewer starters from last year than Stanford and in breaking down this matchup, I'm just not seeing the gap in talent that the oddsmakers and/or public seem to. Again, I feel it is the better team getting points and an outright upset here would not surprise me in the least. 8* Stanford

8* Missouri (7:00 ET): I've got to come right out and say that South Carolina surprised me last week by going into Charlotte (technically a neutral site) and upsetting favored North Carolina State, 35-28, never trailing. But while I won't call the win "phony," there were definitely some breaks that went the Gamecocks' way. For starters, they returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown, which had to throw NC State off. Furthermore, there were two Wolfpack turnovers that were almost immediately converted into touchdowns. South Carolina was actually outgained 504-246 (more than 2:1!) and had 17 fewer first downs (29-12). While last year's team was able to overachieve (Will Muschamp's 1st season), I don't see the string of good fortune continuing this week in Columbia, MO.

All the luck Missouri had a year ago was of the bad variety. Remember how the Tigers started their SEC tenure w/ B2B Champ Game appearances and a 23-5 SU record? Well, the last two years have seen them go a combined 9-15 SU w/ no bowl appearances. There was a coaching change in there w/ Barry Odom taking over before last season. Odom's team could not catch a break, especially on the defensive side of the ball where four different starters were lost for the year. This year's team is way more experienced w/ 15 starters back, 10 of them on the offensive side of the ball including QB Drew Lock. The offensive line goes from zero returning starters LY to all five TY. You could see the difference on that side of the ball last week as the Tigers rolled up 72 points and 815 total yards against Missouri State, staggering numbers even if they came against a FCS opponent. 

Since joining the SEC, Mizzou is just 2-3 SU/ATS vs. South Carolina. Back in 2013, they lost a memorable home game, 23-20 (double overtime) to the Gamecocks, which was their ONLY defeat of the regular season. They won both the '14 and '15 meetings. Then last year, in Columbia, SC, they lost 31-21 as six-point underdogs. They had a slight edge in total yards, but were undone by an ugly -3 TO margin. One turnover was a late INT in the end zone, after they'd already missed two field goals. Yes, Missouri's defense was shaky last week. But I see better things on the horizon for them this year and I cannot see South Carolina winning B2B games away from home, as a dog. Lay the very short number at home. 8* Missouri

8* Fresno State (3:30 ET): In a historical matchup for Opening Weekend (first time two top three teams faced in 1st week), # 1 Alabama beat #13 Florida State 24-7 as 7.5-pt chalk. Perhaps we shouldn't at all be surprised about that result considering how Bama has traditionally played in season openers under Nick Saban and how Saban has treated his former assistants (now 11-0 SU, 9-2 ATS). But as "automatic" as Saban and the Tide may be in those situations, they are an equally automatic fade the following week. Saban's teams have opened at a neutral site eight straight years, going 8-0 SU/7-1 ATS. The following week, they are on an 0-6 ATS run w/ one game called due to inclement weather. Given the inevitable let down that will take place w/ the players, this is just way too high of a number, especially since the coaching staff will probably be more preoccupied w/ next week's opponent, Colorado State. Plus, Alabama just lost two key defensive players. 

Fresno State has a new HC in Jeff Tedford. Remember him? Tedford was Aaron Rodgers HC at Cal, which is basically his claim to fame. In all fairness, he did have the Bears as a national power for a brief time. His debut here at FSU couldn't have gone better as the Bulldogs routed Incarnate Word (FCS) 66-0 w/ over 600 total yards of offense. There's nowhere to go but up here as FSU finished 1-11 SU last year and that one win was Sacramento State. But they did cover seven of their last nine as underdogs as the spreads grew more and more inflated. They may not face a more inflated number as long as Tedford is here compared to what they'll see Sunday. Tedford inherited 10 returning starters on the offensive side of the ball, which is where he's considered a guru. WR KeeSean Johnson caught seven passed for 122 yds last week. The defense, much maligned LY, did its job by pitching the shutout last week while allowing only 148 yards (-7 rushing). 

It was a physical game last week vs. FSU and quite frankly, Alabama didn't play as well as the final score indicated. It was only a 269-250 edge in total yds, but they were +3 in turnovers. There were also missed field goals. All three 2nd half scoring drives (2 FGs, 1 TD) were drives of 16 yards or less. Yes, there is no denying that the Crimson Tide defense will shut FSU down. But can/will the offense be able to put up the requisite number of points to cover? I don't think so. Of those six non-covers following neutral site season openers, five were against non Power 5 teams where the Tide were favored by 28 or more. They are just 2-4 ATS the L6 times they've been favored by 31 or more. Plus, there's those injuries. Two outside linebackers - Christian Miller and Terrell Lewis - are done for the year. Two other LB's - Rashaan Evans and Anfernee Jennings - are also not 100%. So maybe Fresno State will be able to score once or twice here. That's all we need. I should also point out that Bama WR coach/co-OC Mike Locksley is dealing w/ a tragedy (son killed last weekend) and his mind might obviously be elsewhere. 8* Fresno State

8* Syracuse (3:30 ET): This seems like a very inopportune for Middle Tennessee to make it's very first ever venture into the Carrier Dome. The Blue Raiders are off a demoralizing 28-6 loss (at home) to Vanderbilt in the season opener. It was demoralizing in the sense that MTSU went into that game very much thinking they could compete w/ an in-state rival from the big, bad SEC. That's not the way things played out, however, as they were instead outgained 367-215. Dominated in time of possession, the Blue Raiders trailed 28-0 going into the 4Q. As for Syracuse, they whipped a FCS school (C Conn St) 50-7 w/ 586 yds total offense. Dino Babers' team is going to score plenty in 2017 and is an experienced bunch on both sides of the ball. They have 19 returning starters from last year, tied for most in the entire country!

I must concede that this kind of price range is somewhat unprecedented for recent Syracuse football. The Orange haven't even been favored against a FBS opponent since Wk 3 of 2015 when they squeaked by Central Michigan in overtime. The last time they were favored by double digits over a FBS opponent was Tulane, -17, back in the fourth game of '13! But Babers has himself a team this year, especially on offense. Keep in mind that the Orange underwent significant scheme changes on both sides of the ball LY. The hire and schematic changes should now start to pay dividends. Facing a MTSU defense that does not project to be very good this season, I expect plenty of points from Syracuse and as you can tell by the total for this matchup, the oddsmakers do too. 

Of course, when the total is this high, the favorite is also expected to give up some points. But the MTSU offense failed to impress last week and one edge Syracuse has here is they'll be facing former HC Scott Shafer (recruited most of Orange players), so they should be familiar w/ what he wants to run. Last week's loss saw Shafer's defense allow three different TD drives of 75+ yards to a Vandy offense that is basically the opposite of prolific. You may be shocked the 'Cuse is laying this many points, but don't be, they're going to score plenty Saturday afternoon. Middle Tennessee is just 3-19 SU in road openers and 0-4 vs Power 5 schools the L4 seasons, the latter record seeing them get outscored by 20 PPG. 8* Syracuse 

10* Army (12:00 ET): Buffalo had no problem covering a generous spread LW at Minnesota, losing only 17-7 on the scoreboard. My take is that bettors will look at that final, see the Bulls competed hard against a school from the Big 10, and think it's reasonable to assume they won't lose by a larger margin against a smaller school. But that would be wrong. Going inside LW's box score reveals the Bulls were hardly impressive (only 262 total yds gained) and the score could have been a lot worse. Minnesota not only threw an INT in the end zone, but missed two FG attempts. Buffalo could not run the ball at all (51 yds on 22 carries) and punted eight times. Now they must turn around to take on a very difficult opponent to prepare for, that being Army and it's triple option attack. Furthermore, this is a revenge game for the favorite. Lay the points. 

Army is no longer a pushover. Last year marked a breakthrough for HC Jeff Monken, who is now in his fourth year at West Point. The Cadets finished 8-5 and won a bowl game w/ the highlight of the season clearly being the win over Navy, which snapped a 14-game losing streak to their rival. This year's team, which is quite experienced for a service academy (usually lose plenty of starters to graduation year to year), has a chance to bring back the Commander-in-Chief trophy to West Point for the 1st time in a very long time. We know what the offensive gameplan is going to be: run, run and run some more. Last week, they totaled 513 yards on the ground against overmatched Fordham in a 64-6 win. That doesn't bode well for a Buffalo defense that was run on 51 times last week and allowed 169 yards. I expect the Black Knights to dominate this game in the trenches.

As mentioned above, this is also a revenge game for Army. Last year, they started 3-0 (all three wins by 15+ pts), only to then go to Buffalo and lose a heartbreaker, 23-20, in overtime. Army certainly had its chances to win. They led 10-0 at halftime and 20-6 going into the fourth quarter. But then, a defense which was very good over the course of the season, shockingly gave up B2B TD drives late. Army missed a FG (only 34 yards) w/ just three seconds left in regulation and then another in OT. That's when Buffalo made theirs (FG) for the outright win as 13-pt dogs. Army dominated the game in terms of total yardage (444-265 edge) and I'm sure hasn't forgotten the way things ended. While you don't see the Black Knights laying double digits too often, based on LY's pointspread, this is a real value as the spread should be closer to three touchdowns. 10* Army

10* Ohio (8:00 ET): The better team is getting points here. Yes, Purdue just gave #16 Louisville all it could handle in a 35-28 loss (on a neutral field), easily covering the 24.5-point spread. But that plays right into Ohio's and our hands. Of course, theoretically, the idea of Big 10 schools scheduling these MAC opponents is to pick up an easy, early-season win. But as you can tell from the number here, easy is not what the oddsmakers are anticipating for the Boilermakers. Furthermore, there's a trend that we can lean on when you have a Big 10 team as a slight favorite against a MAC opponent and it's not good for the team from the bigger conference. Going back to 2008, there has been 23 instances of a MAC team being either a single-digit dog or favorite against a school from the Big 10. The MAC team has gone 15-8 ATS in those games and 12-11 straight up.

Just last week we saw this situation play out. Illinois, one of the worst Big 10 teams, hosted Ball State and was laying just 4.5 points at the betting window. The Illini won, but only by a 24-21 margin, and not only did they need to come from behind to win at home, they were outgained 375-216 and had to block a potential game-tying FG as time expried to preserve the win. Purdue isn't quite as bad as Illinois, but they still project as one of the weakest teams in the Big 10. However, the big difference here is that while Ball State is - at best - a middle of the road MAC program, Ohio is one of the top teams in that conference. In fact, this may be one of Frank Solich's best squads in his 13 years (longest tenured HC in Group of 5) in Athens. Solich has a solid 13 starters back from a team that won the MAC East last season and gave unbeaten Western Michigan all it could handle. Week 1 saw the Bobcats whip FCS Hampton 59-0, even getting to rest some starters, including QB Quinton Maxwell. The defense held the Pirates to just 108 total yards and seven first downs. 

Purdue was able to move the ball against Louisville last week and even led outright early in the 4Q. But they were severely outgained in the game (524-344) and would have lost by a wider margin were it not for three Cardinals' turnovers. Two of them being fumbles at the goal line! Granted, Purdue had four turnovers themselves, one of them that was returned for a TD. But I'll argue they're going up against a better defense this week. They ran for only 51 yards on 21 carries last week and the QB situation remains unsettled here in West Lafayette. I'm thinking upset Friday night. Take the points. 10* Ohio

8* UCLA (7:30 ET): There is plenty of room for improvement in Westwood as HC Jim Mora is coming off a shockingly poor 4-8 SU campaign. Consider that in Mora's first four seasons on the job, the Bruins won 9, 10, 10 and 8 games. Bad luck and injuries contributed to the 2016 disappointment. They opened 3-3 SU w/ three-hard luck losses, one of them to Texas A&M. Then QB Josh Rosen was lost for the year (shoulder) and the wheels came off. It still ought to be mentioned that until the final two games, UCLA didn't lose a single game by more than 10 pts last year. People seem quick to forget that Rosen was tabbed as pro prospect coming into his freshman season and w/ nine starters back on offense, I'm expecting big things from him this year.

Texas A&M seasons have followed a similar pattern under HC Kevin Sumlin. Typically things start well (started 5-0 SU or better each of the last three years) and then things fall apart once the "teeth" of the SEC schedule hits. Consider that despite those three consecutive 5-0 SU (or better) starts, the Aggies have finished unranked at the end of all of those seasons! They will come into this season as the least experienced team in their conference and there is some question as to whom will be starting at QB in this game. Two of the three options are freshman, so the Aggies pretty clearly are at a disadvantage here as it pertains to the most important position on the football field. 

UCLA is 17-2 SU in home openers and as alluded to earlier, this is a revenge game. They lost down in College Station last year (season opener), 31-24, but that was an overtime game that they easily could have won. They did have to score two fourth quarter TD's to tie the game, but finished w/ the edge in total yards. I think we can all agree that they were overrated coming into LY ranked #16 (were actually a slight dog at unranked A&M), but this year the situation is reversed as the Bruins come in vastly underrated. I have this team challenging USC for the Pac 12 South and while a win here won't be easy, having Rosen back is of major significance and he should lead his team to a comfortable victory Sunday night at the Rose Bowl. Lay the short number. 8* UCLA

10* Virginia Tech (7:30 ET):  These are two "fringe" Top 25 teams facing off in the season opener, played at Landover, MD. West Virginia and Va Tech are ranked #22 and #21 respectively and in the case of the former, I feel that's solely based on last year's repuatation. While most of the Big 12 projects to be better in 2017, I feel that the Mountaineers are going to be measurably worse as it's highly unlikely they'll match LY's surprising 10-win effort where they were 4-0 SU in games decided by four points or less. I think that the kneejerk reaction here is to take the points when the public sees two teams they believe are "evenly" matched. But as we saw yday w/ Michigan-Florida and Alabama-FSU, the chalk can often be undervalued in matchups such as these and that's what I'm banking on happening again here. Lay the points.

WVU brings back only eight starters from 2016 and while HC Dana Holgorsen has brought in plenty of JUCO talent, it will take time for that infusion to gel. Take the QB position for example where Will Grier steps in. You may remember Grier from Florida where he went 6-0 SU as a freshman, but was also booted off the team for PED use. However, the defense is a larger concern for me as less than 40% of the team's total tackles return from last year (just three starters) and thus I see a streak of four consecutive seasons allowing fewer PPG than the previous year coming to an end here in '17. Back to the offense, Grier will have a fairly inexperienced set of receivers to throw to. Let's also note that WVU was beaten by double digits against the three best teams they faced last year, which were Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Miami. In fact, they lost all three games by at least 17 pts. 

For the 1st time since Mike Vick, Va Tech will be going w/ a true frosh at starting QB. His name is Josh Jackson and big things are expected. In his first year in Blacksburg (replaced the legendary Frank Beamer), HC Justin Fuente had the Hokies averaging 35.0 PPG and he did so w/ a below average QB. The defense, still under the guidance of long-time coordinator Bud Foster, should be as stout as ever. Neutral site games haven't necessarily gone the Hokies way in recent years, but don't forget how this team ended last season - by beating Arkansas 35-24 in the Belk Bowl. Fuente is doing a great job here and with the potential for a Top 10 defense I see Va Tech opening up with a big win over a WVU squad that's primed to regress in 2017. 10* Virginia Tech

8* Over BYU/LSU (9:30 ET): This game has been moved from Houston to New Orleans, which is a big edge for LSU, obviously. As for the total, I don't think it makes much of a difference as it will still be a "fast track," played indoors. These were two Under teams in 2016 w/ 10 of LSU's 12 games going that way and 10 of BYU's 13 games doing the same. But those records have created a situation where the O/U line was opened far too low here. BYU opening their season w/ a "ho-hum" 20-6 win over FCS Portland State also played a role. But how much of that was the coaching staff "holding back" remains to be seen. As for LSU, despite the departure of RB Leonard Fournette, their offense should be just fine as they have Derrius Guice to fill the void. I like the Over in this game.

I do expect BYU to top last year's scoring average of 29.5 PPG when they went from a spread to a more pro-style approach (huddle before most plays). Last week was clearly not a great "trial run," but again, I have to wonder if they were "holding back" w/ this game on deck. Portland State actually finished w/ one more first down (14-13), which was downright shocking. But the Cougars did outgain the Vikings 365-220 and had several big plays in the passing game. The rushing attack looked good w/ Canada and Kavika combining for 157 yards over land. QB Mangum is just two years removed from setting school records for both passing yards and completions and should be closer to those numbers than last year's here in 2017. 

LSU's defense will certainly not make it easy on BYU as last year saw the Tigers allow only 15.8 PPG and the fewest number of first downs (16) per game. But this year's group has only five returning starters back and lost more than 50% of its tackles. With the BYU offense already having a game under its belt, it's an advantage for them. But LSU's own offense will be more than up to the challenge. Guice will have a big year running the ball and Danny Etling, now a senior, is back as the starting QB. It's also a veteran offensive line. The Tigers are more than capable of doing most of the necessary scoring themselves in this one and BYU should do just enough to help push this one Over the number. 8* Over BYU/LSU

10* Arkansas State (8:00 ET): Nebraska was a somewhat obvious bounce back candidate for 2016 as the previous season had seen them experience almost unfathomable amounts of bad luck (five last second losses!) and you had to figure they'd have better fortune moving forward. Bounce back is precisely what the Cornhuskers did, going 9-3 SU in the regular season before a bowl loss to Tennessee. They even started 7-0 SU before an OT loss at Wisconsin. But was Mike Riley's team really that good? Their best win was either at home vs. Maryland or at Indiana. Their only other wins over bowl teams were Minnesota and Wyoming. This year's team is far less experienced, in fact it's one of the least experienced teams in the entire country and I want no part of them laying this many points in the season opener.

Arkansas State is a perennial contender out in the Sun Belt having lost just seven conference games the last five seasons. They started out 0-4 last season before rallying to win 8 of their final 9 games, including a bowl win over UCF. Obviously, they'll be cognizant of how they started last season and be looking to avoid any kind of repeat. They open w/ this game, Miami FL (home) and at SMU as three of the first four games, so again the odds won't be in their favor. But the offense figures to be a lot better than it was LY (27.3 PPG) even w/ an inexperienced offensive line. That's because virtually all the key skill players are back. The defense was very good last year, allowing just 21.5 PPG, and should be stout once again. 

Nebraska is also going to have to worry about the lookahead to Oregon next week. They lose a four-year starter at QB (Tommy Armstrong Jr) and his replacement Tanner Lee, a transfer from Tulane, will be w/o three of LY's top four receivers. The Nebraska defense was shredded down the stretch and deserved most of the blame for losing four of the final six games. There's a new DC in Lincoln (Bob Diaco) and the first thing he did was move from a 4-3 to a 3-4. The change in scheme will likely not be a smooth transition. Nebraska, like ASU, returns only 10 starters this year. One could make the case that among all Power 5 teams that won 9+ games last year, the Cornhuskers were the weakest. Arkansas State has 22 double digit victories in the last three seasons and while I can't see them adding to that here, or even winning straight up for that matter, the number is more than generous. 10* Arkansas State

8* Georgia Southern (7:30 ET): This is a terrible spot for Auburn as they have defending National Champion Clemson on deck. Therefore, the chances of a lookahead or the coaching staff simply "not wanting to show much" are both certainly on the table for this season opener. The Tigers are certainly expected to be good here in 2017 (opened #12) and will probably compete w/ LSU for second place (behind Alabama, of course) in the rugged SEC West. They have a new starting QB in Jared Stidham, a Baylor transfer that should fit HC Gus Mahlzan's offense quite well. Big things are expected from Stidham, but he's still young as is his receiving corps. Yes, Auburn should be expected to win handily, but not anywhere close to the large margin the oddsmakers are calling for here. 

Georgia Southern is a young team. They have just eight seniors, which would be the fewest of any team nationally. Not many are giving the Eagles much of a chance this season, even in the Sun Belt, where they're projected to finish middle of the road. But remember that this is a team that had won nine games B2B years before dropping to 5-7 SU in 2016. An issue for them last season was that they tried to pass more (led nation in rush yds in both '14 and '15) under 1st year HC Tyson Summers and after the lack of success that approach brought, it's back to the flexbone this season. This is a difficult offense to prepare for and they've played SEC teams tough each of the last two years. In 2015, they took Georgia to overtime. Last year, they stayed within 10 of Ole Miss (were +28). They will certainly not be intimidated by the pomp and circumstance of Auburn football and unlike the Tigers, there's nothing to look ahead to if you're the Eagles (New Hampshire on deck).

Even in a down year, Ga Southern never lost a game by more than 24 pts last season. If they do go back to the run-heavy approach on offense, I believe that will prevent this game from getting out of hand. The Eagles went just 3-9 ATS last year and figure to be a lot better in that department in Summers' second season here. They have covered five straight against the SEC and five straight times as a road underdog of more than three touchdowns. As for Auburn, I come back to the fact that this is a lot of weight to be laying in a clear lookahead spot. Furthermore, it's not as if the Tigers haven't been immune to not playing up to their potential the last couple of seasons. Breaking in a new QB takes time and this was an offense that was shockingly held below 20 points SIX times last year, including three of the first four weeks. 8* Georgia Southern

8* Marshall (6:30 ET): Both of these programs are coming off highly irregular campaigns in 2016. Miami became the first team in FBS history to start a season 0-6 and finish 6-6. The RedHawks even made a bowl game (St. Petersburg) where they played Mississippi State very tough (lost 17-16), easily covering the two-touchdown spread. As for Marshall, they are looking to bounce back from what will hopefully be the nadir of the Doc Holliday era as they went 3-9 SU, a real shocker for a team that had won 10+ games each of the three previous seasons. The way I break down this season opener is Marshall is likely to be much improved while Miami isn't going to be as fortunate as they were in '16. Getting the Thundering Herd essentially as a Pick 'em here in Huntington seems like a steal to me. 

Miami is the most experienced team in the MAC coming into the season and third nationally w/ 17 returning starters. Expectations probably haven't been this high in Oxford since Ben Roethlisberger left campus over a decade ago. It should be pointed out though that the RedHawks were able to take advantage of a fairly easy schedule last year, beating only two bowl teams (Eastern & Central Michigan). They avoided the top three teams in the MAC West (W Michigan, Toledo, N Illinois), which was a big deal. The schedule is going to be a lot more challenging for Chuck Martin's squad this year. They play both Notre Dame and Ohio (MAC East favorite) on the road, then there's this game. The RedHawks have lost nine consecutive road openers by an average of 31 points per game. This is a program that had just five wins TOTAL the previous three years and has never averaged more than 22.8 PPG under Martin.

Meanwhile, the majority of factors are pointing UP for Marshall in '17. Their schedule was among the hardest in the country last year and they were upset three different times. But as I said earlier, the Thundering Herd don't stay down for long, in fact, they've never experienced B2B losing seasons under Holliday. They've won the home opener 10 of the past 12 years w/ both losses coming to ranked West Virginia teams. They are a former MAC rival of Miami and have beaten the RedHawks eight of the last nine times they've played, including three straight wins by 20 PPG. The big difference for Marshall this year will be on the defensive side of the ball as a ton of talent has transferred in, which should result in a unit similar to the one that allowed just 17.8 PPG in '15. As a home favorite of three points or less, the Thundering Herd have won and covered SEVEN straight times! QB Chase Litton, now in his 3rd year as the starter, bulked up in the offseason and should be ready to roll. 8* Marshall

8* Utah State (9:00 ET): Four of the five major conferences in College Football have been broken up into two divisions (Big 12 being the exception). Of the eight divisions, I'm probably not alone in saying Wisconsin taking the Big 10 West is the easiest call. There are simply no obvious contenders for the Badgers amongst the field and w/ no Ohio State or Penn State on the schedule (get Michigan at home), the expectation in Madison is an unbeaten regular season. But with such expectations comes added weight, often reflected in the pointspread, and that's precisely what we have here. The Badgers, as good as they may be, are not built to cover spreads as high as this one. Case in point, each of the L3 seasons has found them favored by 30 or more one time. None of those occasions saw them even score enough pts to cover the pointspread!

The opponent for Wisconsin in this year's season opener is Utah State, who is coming off a very disappointing 3-9 SU finish in '16. It was easily the worst record in HC Matt Wells four years here in Logan and the 1st w/o a bowl game. So a bounce back should be expected even though only 10 starters from LY return. In games decided by a touchdown or less, the Aggies went 0-4 SU/ATS in 2016. That right there helps explain the somewhat dramatic fall in the record. Something to keep in mind is that last year they faced eight bowl teams, five of them on the road. They also weren't very experienced. This year, they have a returning starter at QB (Kent Myers) plus their leading rusher and receiver are back. Will the Aggies lose this game? Yes. But they're going to put up a fight, particularly early.

The summer has not been kind to Wisconsin as not one, but TWO, linebackers have been lost for the year. One was a senior and team co-captain, Jack Cichy, which is a significant loss. Keep in mind the program is also on its third defensive coordinator in as many years. So there should be challenges early on that side of the ball. After opening up against an SEC opponent each of the last three years (LSU twice and Alabama), I think there's a real potential for a letdown from the Badgers here. Meanwhile, you know Utah State will give it their best shot Friday night. I just don't like Wisconsin in this price range. 8* Utah State

8* Florida Atlantic (8:00 ET): I expect FAU to be one of the more improved teams in the country this year. It starts w/ the hiring of Lane Kiffin as the new head coach. Yes, him. Kiffin inherits THE most experienced team in the entire country (17 returning starters) and they figure to be a lot better against the pointspread this year than they were last (3-8-1 ATS). As is so often the case w/ an underachieving outfit the previous year, the Owls failed to get the job done in close games in 2016. In the middle of the campaign, there was a stretch where they lost four in a row, all by six points or less. As you can tell from what this number has done since it opened (big line move towards FAU), I'm not alone in thinking improvement here and I'll gladly take the points. 

Last year saw a much different end than Navy is used to seeing under Ken Niumatalolo. The previous three seasons (2013-15) all saw the Midshipmen win their final two games, those of course being the annual Army game as well as a Bowl. But last year saw them lose BOTH w/ the precious 14-game win streak over their rivals coming to an end. They actually lost their final three games last year, including a 34-10 setback to Temple in the AAC Title game. So after a 9-2 SU/8-3 ATS start, it was definitely a somber finish. As per usual in Annapolis, there is not a ton of returning talent here, including only four returning starters on the offensive side of the ball. Expect early season struggles and I can't see matching LY's average of 37.9 PPG. Of course part of that is yhe last two years saw the Middies open at home against a FCS opponent and they averaged 50 PPG against Colgate and Fordham. This will be a far greater test, obviously. 

With Kiffin's arrival, there will obviously be much fanfare. I thought FAU was the perfect landing spot for him as he'll be "off the radar" nationally, though there's the potential for a rivalry to start brewing with Florida International, who also welcomes in a fmr NFL HC (Butch Davis). Kiffin has Kendall Briles (Baylor) as his OC and I expect the Owls to be pretty prolific on that side of the ball. Keep in mind last year saw them average nearly 400 YPG, the most in program history. It starts w/ a very experienced O-line (82 career starts). Kiffin is keeping his starting QB a secret (smart), which should throw off the Navy defense early. A ton of transfers have been brought in here, which means an influx of talent on both sides of the ball. The defense should also be a lot better in 2017. Kiffin is not going to want to be embarrassed in his 1st home game (on national TV, no less - game is on ESPNU). I expect a close game throughout. 8* Florida Atlantic

8* Charlotte (6:00 ET): Eastern Michigan enjoyed a breakout 2017 season, going from 1-11 (SU) in '15 to 7-6 SU and their first bowl appearance since 1987! (Lost to Old Dominion, 24-20, in Bahamas Bowl). As a result, expectations are now at an all-time high in the Chris Creighton era. That's reflected by the pointspread for this season opener, which is now in highly unfamiliar territory for this regime. Creighton won just three games - total - his first two years here in Ypsilanti. During that time, his Eagles were favored only two times: once against a FCS team (Morgan St) in the '14 season opener (won only 31-28) and then by a single point against Army the following year (and they lost 58-36). Last year, they were favored three times. The first was again against a FCS opponent (Miss Valley State). I'll get to the second in a moment. The third and final time saw them actually favored by a TD over a FBS opponent for the 1st time under Creighton and they promptly lost outright, 28-15 to Miami (OH). This is just too many points for this program to be laying. 

The second time EMU was favored last year was against their opponent here, by three on the road. The Eagles won 37-19 despite the fact that total yardage was virtually identical (357-356) and Charlotte had six more fist downs. Consider that it was the first time going back to 2005 that the Eagles were listed as a road favorite. They won in large part because of a +2 turnover margin. While that game wasn't one of 'em, Eastern Michigan won a lot of close games last year, going 5-1 SU in those decided by 7 pts or less before the Bahamas Bowl loss. Simply put, despite 16 returning starters, I'm not nearly as high on this team as the faithful in Ypsilanti will be, as they came off as more "lucky" than "good" in '16. 

Charlotte has only been playing football for four seasons and has yet to record more than five wins in any of them. This will be the third year as a FBS program and despite the loss to EMU LY, they did double their number of total wins from '15 (2 to 4). They won three times as a DD road dog in '16, winning at Florida Atlantic, Marshall and Southern Miss. They were a 4-5 (SU) team before close losses to Rice and Middle Tennessee at home. This will be a much easier game than last year's season opener (at Louisville). While an outright win here would surprise me some, I expect the 49ers to be far more competitive on the scoreboard here than they were last year vs. EMU.  This number is at three points too high. 8* Charlotte

8* Under Tulsa/Oklahoma State (7:30 ET): Last year, BOTH of these teams have a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball. Only one returns the majority of it in 2017. That would be Oklahoma State, who for the past seven seasons has averaged 38.6 PPG (LY's average) or more SIX times. With the prolific QB-WR combo of Mason Rudolph and James Washington returning, expectations are through the roof this year in Stillwater w/ the faithful thinking Big XII Championship. However, it is Tulsa that I'm worried about here. The Golden Hurricane averaged 42.5 PPG in a breakout 2016 that saw them win 10 games. They were the first team in FBS history to have a 3,000+ yard passer, two 1,000+ yd rushers and two 1,000 yd receivers. But all but one of those players was lost to graduation. As a result, expect a massive drop off on that side of the ball for the Golden Hurricane here in '17. 

Tulsa topped 40 pts in all but three games last season and scored at least 31 in all but one. That one time, of course, happened to be their lone visit to a Power 5 school. They lost 48-3 at Ohio State w/ just 188 total yds gained. I'm not saying this OSU will be able to limit them to such a degree, but it is worth noting that the Pokes did allow just 26.5 PPG a year ago (three-year low) against far tougher competition than they'll see here. As of press time, Tulsa HC Philip Montgomery has yet to decided on a starting QB. It will be one of two inexperienced underclassmen - sophomore Chad President or freshman Luke Skipper. Whomever gets the nod (both might play), I expect will struggle mightily. 

The key to this Under play then would be keeping Oklahoma State's offense in relative check. If the Cowboys were to simply "hit" LY's scoring average, then they'd have to allow 30+ pts for this one to go Over. I cannot see Tulsa scoring 30 points here. So, let's say the Golden Hurricane drops down to somewhere between 21 and 24 pts (seems realistica). It would take roughly 50 from the OSU side to get this one Over. Are the Pokes capable of such an output? Yes, but I don't see it. Consider they didn't score 50 against any FBS opponent last season. They were remarkably consistent, scoring between 38 and 49 pts in eight of their 10 wins. The two exceptions were scoring 31 against TCU (allowed only 6) and 61 (against a FCS program, SE Louisiana). I expect a pretty "average" day offensively from OSU here while Tulsa should slip dramatically compared to last year. Most OSU totals last year were lower than this one. There were three exceptions and two of those stayed Under. 8* Under Tulsa/Oklahoma State

8* San Jose State (7:30 ET): #19 USF rides into 2017 w/ plenty of fanfare. They are one of the favorites to represent the "group of 5" in a "New Year's Six" bowl game, coming off an 11-2 SU season (and one of those losses was at Florida State). Over the last two years, the team is 17-8-1 ATS. But with success comes new challenges. First off, HC Willie Taggart was lured away by Oregon. Charlie Strong takes over and while Taggart by no means left the cupboard empty, Strong certainly "won less w/ more" at his previous stop, Texas. The Bulls will also have to deal w/ inflated expectations. Case in point; this matchup at San Jose State where they're being asked to lay three touchdowns. Taggart's teams were only asked to lay more than two touchdowns one time on the road and that was the '15 finale against what was a winless UCF squad! Yes, there's a talent gap here, but I'll gladly grab the "bushel" of points with home dog San Jose State. 

Two years ago, San Jose State won a bowl game. But they dipped to 4-8 SU last year and Ron Caragher was shown the door as a result. His replacement, Brent Brennan, has never even been a coordinator at the FBS level. But he knows the program (assistant here from 2005-10). The last six years he worked as the WR coach at Oregon State. His two coordinators are both first-timers as well, one of them (OC Andrew Sowder) they youngest in FBS (only 28). With the new and inexperienced coaching staff, expectations are down this year. But I see the Spartans as likely being highly motivated for this game, which could be their lone visit this year from a ranked opponent (San Diego St on 11.4?). Brennan does inherit 15 returning starters and I have the offense improving after averaging only 24.4 PPG a year ago. 

USF figures to be favored in every game this year. Though the consensus favorite to win the AAC, note that they only outgained conference foes by an average of 14.6 PPG despite going 7-1 SU. I remember that at this time - last year- we were talking about a different AAC team (Houston) as likely to run the table. Guess what? They finished w/ four losses and didn't even win their division. One major issue I see with these Bulls is that the seniors will be playing under their fourth different coordinator in as many years. They did give up 31.6 PPG in 2016, not much fewer than SJ State allowed, and that's obviously problematic when laying this large of a number. On offense, they must find a way to replace the lost production of RB Marlon Mack. Yes, dual threat QB Quinton Flowers is awesome and USF is very likely to win this game. But I'll gladly fade what is likely to be a very "public" side here. 8* San Jose State

8* Massachusetts (6:00 ET): By any objective standard, UMass was not a good football team last season. The Minutemen went 2-10 SU for HC Mark Whipple (his 2nd stint here in Amherst) w/ one of the wins coming against FCS Wagner. Their season unceremoniously ended with a 46-40 loss out in Hawaii where they did cover as seven-point underdogs. Wouldn't you know it; Hawaii is also the opponent for TY's season opener! Last year's meeting meant "the world" to the Warriors as they needed a win to secure a bowl bid (which they did), but this year we're starting w/ an even slate and there won't be that clear motivational edge for one side. Saturday's game also takes place in Amherst, a big difference when you're talking a cross-country trip. While Hawaii managed to split its six road games LY, they had won just 1 of 24 under the previous regime! It was a very even game last November (tied 40-40 w/ under four minutes to go and after giving up the go-ahead score, UMass was then stopped on downs at the UH 21). With UMass set to be much improved in '17, I'll call for them to win and gain revenge for last year's defeat. 

UMass has yet to win a home opener since moving up to the FBS level five years ago. So that's some motivation, if you're looking for it. Note though all five previous years saw them open up against a Power 5 foe. Last year was set up for failure as they went from 19 returning starters in '15 (most in FBS) to only nine (#120) and became an Independent. The schedule was much tougher than being in the MAC as they played three SEC schools and ended the year w/ three true road games. This year, the Minutemen have nine returning starters on the defensive side of the ball alone. Six starters are back on offense and QB Andrew Ford, now a junior, will be in his second year at the helm. Ford has a quality target to throw to in TE Adam Breneman, who is on the Mackey Award watch list. Also indicating better times are ahead: the team is likely to improve upon LY's ugly -10 turnover margin and an 0-3 SU record in games decided by seven points or less. 

Conversely, Hawaii was a pretty lucky team in 2016. They overachieved in Nick Rolovich's 1st year, jumping from 3-10 to 7-7. Keep in mind that at one point, they were 4-7 SU. They were both outscored (-9.0 PPG!) and outgained (71 YPG) despite the .500 finish. Back to the struggles on the road; the program has lost its last six road openers - by an average of 23 points per game. This is a LONNNNG road trip and I wouldn't be surprised if Hawaii forgets to "pack" its defense. 8* Massachusetts

8* Over Clemson/Alabama (8:00 ET): What I find so fascinating about this year's title game is that both the underdog & under, while typically tied together, are the choices of the public. That's certainly atypical as more often than not, their preferred combo is the favorite & over. By no means am I being a contrarian for the sake of being a contrarian here. After all, I did cash the Over in LY's title game between these same two teams. In handicapping this year's rematch, much of the discussion concerning the total has talked about how Alabama & Clemson won't be combining to score 85 points again. Well, fortunately, they do not have to. We have a whopping five touchdown margin of error to work with here and thus I'll be going Over again.

What both defenses did in their respective dominant CFP semifinal victories is a big reason why many are expecting a low-scoring Championship Game. (Both games went Under). Alabama's defense is definitely the best in the country and held Washington below 200 total yards in a 24-7 win. But the Crimson Tide certainly didn't look like what we've come to expect from a Nick Saban defense LY vs. Clemson. There, they gave up 400+ yards and 31 first downs, barely surviving in a 45-40 win. That was when the Tigers didn't have WR Mike Williams either. Williams' presence should be a major factor in this year's rematch. Also, a point that has been driven home ad nauseam is how Clemson QB DeShaun Watson is precisely the kind of signal-caller that Saban stop units tend to struggle against. Watson and his offense come in averaging 39.5 PPG, for the record.

The Clemson defense shut out Ohio State on New Year's Eve, allowing just over 200 total yards. The fact that Alabama has changed offensive coordinators in the week leading up to the biggest game of the year is a major deal. The transition from Lane Kiffin (who called an awful game vs. Washington) to Steve Sarkisian will not be seamless and the Crimson Tide may very well struggle early. But remember; last year's title game was only 14-14 at halftime before both offenses exploded in the 2H. Alabama averages 39.4 PPG, almost an identical number to Clemson. This Tigers' defense did allow 35+ pts twice down the stretch, once to Pitt (their only loss) and to Virginia Tech in the ACC Title Game. Prior to the Washington game, the Over was 8-1 in Alabama neutral field games. 8* Over Clemson/Alabama

8* Penn State (5:00 ET): I understand there is some leeriness regarding this Penn State team. Certainly, the Big 10's rep took a bit of a hit w/ Ohio State's ugly showing against Clemson in the CFP Semifinals. But, getting points, I believe the Nittany Lions to be a strong play in this year's Rose Bowl. Down the stretch, this was a covering machine w/ eight ATS wins in their final eight games. Yes, USC was just as hot w/ their own eight-game win streak that included six straight covers. Like Penn State, the Trojans beat a team that made the CFP (Washington, Ohio St). Despite what you've heard about Southern Cal and the slight "home field" edge that the Pac 12 traditionally enjoys at the Rose Bowl, this line should be closer to a Pick 'em, rather than a touchdown. Take the points.

The only game USC failed to cover during it's eight-game win streak was against Colorado and that was a game they kneeled out the clock (inside the 5-yd line) rather than score. They even outgained the Buffaloes 539-371. Every win since has been by double digits w/ the closest margin being 13 points (over Washington). But, if we're going to criticize the Big 10, should we not do the same to the Pac 12? Washington, like Ohio State, was humbled in the CFP semis (something I know all too well!). Also, Colorado got laid to waste in the Alamo Bowl by Oklahoma State. Washington State lost outright to Minnesota. The Pac 12 has just two bowl wins so far and they've been by a combined three points in games where they were favored. So, what I'm saying is that maybe USC's win streak isn't as impressive as it seems. 

USC's season clearly turned w/ the QB change to Sam Darnold. But he's just a freshman. I say Penn State's Trace McSorley is the more talented signal-caller in this game as led all Big 10 QB's w/ 3,360 yards passing and was #1 in the nation at 16.3 yards per completion. When he's not throwing the ball downfield, McSorley can always hand the ball off to RB Saquon Barkley, the Big 10's Offensive Player of the Year. I really like the fact that the Nittany Lions have outscored opponents by 193 points in the second half of games alone. Their only two losses were to Pitt (beat Clemson) by three and Michigan (when their LB corps was decimated by injury). This will NOT be a repeat of the 2003 Orange Bowl where a red hot USC team blew out an undeserving Iowa team. Penn State will be just as motivated by its exclusion from the playoff, which it likely belonged in. 8* Penn State

8* Western Michigan (1:00 ET): The MAC is notoriously bad in bowl games and 2016 was no different. It was a big "0-fer" in December w/ the conference losing all five opportunities. However, with the exception of Central Michigan's awful showing against Tulsa in the Miami Beach Bowl (55-10 loss), all the other games were close. In fact, Toledo, Ohio, Eastern Michigan and Miami OH all lost by five points or less, two of them covering. Those four losses came by a combined 13 points. So this is a storyline that will likely be overplayed in the analysis leading up to the Cotton Bowl. Furthermore, it's grossly unfair to lump Western Michigan in w/ the rest of the conference. The 13-0 Broncos are likely the best team EVER to come out of the MAC and because of HC PJ Fleck, you know they'll be supremely motivated Monday afternoon. So take the points.

While motivation couldn't be higher for Western Michigan, I'm not sure that will be the case for the Wisconsin side. In the past, we've seen the Power 5 team matched up w/ a "Group of Five" team in the "New Year's Day Bowl Game" play pretty uninspired ball. In fact, since the new playoff system was instituted two years ago, we've seen upsets both times. In the 2015 Fiesta Bowl, Boise State beat Arizona 38-30. Last year, in the Peach Bowl, Houston took care of Florida State 38-24. So the precedent is set for the Badgers to lay an egg here. Especially considering the disappointing ending to their regular season, which saw them blow a 28-7 lead in the Big 10 Championship Game. Yes, their only three losses came to Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State. But their best win - against overrated LSU - was by just two points. 

When I call Western Michigan "(possibly) the best MAC team in history," it's not hyperbole. In nine conference games, the Broncos outscored foes by a whopping 221 points. The MAC Title Game vs. Ohio was a bit closer than you'd like to see, but still they put up 29 pts on a very good defense. This sets up as a bit of a defensive affair as well, but I still give WMU the edge on the offensive side of the ball w/ the combo of QB Zach Terrell and WR Corey Davis. Plus, the Wisconsin defense was certainly susceptible to the "big play" against Penn State, an offense that is no more dynamic than Western Michigan's. While 4-0 ATS as a dog this year, Wisconsin was just 3-3 ATS when laying more than a touchdown. WMU is on an 11-3 ATS run as a dog the L3 seasons and has already beaten two "lesser" Big 10 teams - Northwestern and Illinois - this season, both on the road! 8* Western Michigan

10* Iowa (1:00 ET): I'm not sure there should be a side more motivated to win its bowl game than Iowa. Sure, the Hawkeyes are coming off their fourth straight winning season and have been successful, generally speaking, throughout Kirk Ferentz' 18-year tenure here in Iowa City. But postseason games have not gone Ferentz's way of late as the last four have all resulted in losses. The last two were particularly humiliating as they were "doubled up" (outscored 90-44) by Tennessee and Stanford. But unlike those years, they're not being "overslotted" into a bowl spot they're unworthy of. No, here they draw a Florida team that they'll matchup w/ quite well and I like the Hawkeyes to break the bowl losing streak. Take the points. 

The Hawkeyes certainly ended the regular season well w/ three straight wins and covers. That stretch began w/ a huge upset of then-unbeaten Michigan (were 3 TD underdogs and I had them), 14-13. It culminated w/ a 40-10 beatdown of Nebraska in the reg season finale. Defensively, this team provides us w/ plenty of confidence as they allow an average of just 17.9 points per game. Over the L3 games, they allowed just 23 points total. In seven of their 12 games this year, they allowed 17 pts or fewer. Those numbers are particularly inspiring when priced as the dog. The underdog role hasn't necessarily treated Iowa all that well the L3 seasons (just 5-5 ATS), but they are 6-3 ATS in games where the line is three points or less, either way. 

Yes, Florida is also looking to wipe away the memory of last year's bowl experience, a horrible 41-7 loss to Michigan in the Citrus Bowl. But that was just one loss while Iowa is gunning to stop a four-game bowl skid. And, yes, this game might be taking place in the state of Florida. But so too did LY's debacle vs. the Wolverines. So that won't help the Gators. Nor will QB Austin Appleby, who was picked off three times in the SEC Championship Game and threw only 8 TD passes all year. While Iowa closed strong, Florida did not. The Gators got blown out in their final two games, first by Florida State, then by Alabama. The combined final scores there were 85-29. Florida's most impressive win was the rescheduled game vs. LSU, but that was a lucky win, more of a byproduct of bad Tigers' playcalling inside the 10-yd line. In what promises to be a relatively low-scoring affair, taking the points only seems natural. 10* Iowa

8* Ohio State (7:00 ET): All the talk on television from the pundits seems to center around "how can Ohio State be favored here?" That line of thinking essentially matches up w/ the betting public, which is throwing its support behind the underdog by a fairly significant margin. This is also "all fine by me" as I'll gladly lay the short number w/ the best team from what was the best conference in the country this season. Yes, I'm well aware that Clemson HC Dabo Swinney is 5-0 ATS as a dog in bowl games, including an upset over the Urban Meyer-led Buckeyes back in the 2013 Orange Bowl. But I'll still take Meyer, who hasn't lost a bowl game since, any day of the week and possibly twice on Saturdays. This is a much different situation for Clemson compared to LY's CFP Semifinal Matchup w/ Oklahoma when most of the experts were betting AGAINST them.

Most people would probably make the case that over the L2 seasons, Clemson has been the second best team in the country, behind only Alabama of course. But the Tigers have certainly "lived dangerously" for a good deal of this two-year span w/ 10 wins by one score. Six of those came this season and it finally caught up w/ them in their lone loss, 43-42 at Pitt, which came as 21.5-pt home favorites. That's a far worse loss than Ohio State's lone defeat in 2016, which came on a fluke field goal block return for TD. That game, at Top 10 Penn State in the snow, saw the Buckeyes outgain the Nittany Lions 412-276. They also never trailed until the fateful GW play. By the way, Ohio State has also only lost twice over the L2 years and both were in games that involved "the elements" (i.e. Mother Nature. There will be no such elements present Saturday night in the Fiesta Bowl, a venue that the Ohio State program has found a lot of success in through the years. I make the case that this has been the second best team in the country over the L2 seasons.

I think were it not for OSU's offensive struggles for 3+ quarters against Michigan, they'd be drawing far greater support. But it should be noted they turned it on late and ended up outgaining the Wolverines. That Michigan defense is also far better than the one they'll face here. Turnovers could be a big issue here as they plagued Clemson in the loss to Pitt as well as close calls vs. NC State and Louisville. Ohio State happens to be Top 10 in the country in forcing turnovers. Unlike seemingly everybody else, I did not expect Clemson to get back to this point. Meyer is one of the best bowl coaches in the history of College Football and I think his team benefits from having played one less game. 8* Ohio State

10* Washington (3:00 ET): Top-ranked Alabama comes in as a decided favorite over the rest of the CFP field. Nick Saban's Crimson Tide would not only be favored by more than a touchdown over either potential Championship Game opponent, they are already less than even money to win the whole thing. But this spread is far too high. It must be pointed out that the SEC had a really down year. That means 'Bama did not face the usual gauntlet we're accustomed to seeing. Furthermore, I'd like to go on the record and say quarterback play in the SEC was downright abhorrent this year. Jake Browning and Washington will easily be the best QB and team that 'Bama has seen in 2016. I can't see any justification for this being a double digit line other than the public perception that the Tide will roll. But I anticipate this first semifinal being much closer than anticipated. Take the points.

Unlike Alabama, Washington did suffer a loss during the regular season. It was at home to USC on November 12th. But since then, the Huskies have rolled to three consecutive victories by 26 points or more, two of them coming against a pair of Top 15 opponents - Washington State and Colorado. This will now be the first time all year that they are getting points. The only criticism the Huskies have taken regarding their inclusion in the final four is they played a very weak non-conference schedule. But the Pac 12 is also the only league that plays nine conference games. Thus, I believe they are more than battle-tested. We have seen their head coach (Chris Petersen) deliver in these kinds of spots before. Boise State over Oklahoma, anyone? 

In terms of efficiency, Washington matches up well w/ Alabama. Yes, the Crimson Tide are the best defensive team in the country, but the Huskies rank a solid fifth in defensive efficiency. However, it's the Washington offense that will keep them in this one. On that side of the ball, the Huskies are #2 in the country. Bama is just 23rd. Again, Browning will be - easily - the best QB Bama will have seen to this point. With the Tide offense, let's not discount the impact OC Lane Kiffin's impending departure may have. Factoring in all three phases of the game, these have been the two most efficient teams in the country. I'd also like to comment on turnover differential. Bama has scored an inordinate number of defensive TD's this year. But Washington has forced the most TO's (33) and has the best margin (+21) in the country. Therefore, how can you not take the points? 10* Washington

8* Under Nebraska/Tennessee (3:30 ET): Given the respective starts to the season that these teams enjoyed, both were hoping for a far more meaningful final destination than the Music City Bowl. For Tennessee, this essentially amounts to a home game in Nashville (three hour drive). This was supposed to "the year" for the Vols (stop me when you've heard that one before!) and for awhile it was looking like that might be the case. Though living dangerously (had to come from behind in almost every game), Rocky Top did stand at 5-0 straight up going into a date w/ fellow unbeaten Texas A&M at College Station. They lost, in overtime, and that begat a three-game losing streak that essentially sunk their season. Eliminated from SEC East title contention, they would go on to lose their regular season finale, as 7.5-pt favorites, at Vanderbilt 45-34.

Nebraska actually made it all the way to 7-0 SU, but experienced a similar second half swoon. Also like Tennessee, the Cornhuskers' first loss of the year came in OT, at Wisconsin. No shame there, but the following week saw them get humiliated by Ohio State (62-3!) and the bloom was certainly off the rose, so to speak. The similarities with their bowl opponent continue as Nebraska lost its regular season finale, 40-10 at Iowa. More similarities? A good number of the 'Huskers wins this season were close games. Coming into the year though, I had anticipated that as this team experienced miserable fortune in such affairs last year (as did Tennessee!).

With two similar, possibly disinterested teams, I have no opinion on the side here. So, instead let's look at the total. While the potential lack of interest may have most thinking 'Over', I'm going the other way. Nebraska is an Under team to begin with (9-3 this year) and this is a high total for them. Interestingly, two of their Overs came in the two poorest offensive efforts of the season (at Ohio State, Iowa). Though Tennessee's defense has been questionable, Nebraska won't be able to take advantage. That's because starting QB Tommy Armstrong is still out and now so too is top WR Jordan Westerkamp (knee), RB Tre Bryant (hamstring) and possibly TE Tyler Hoppes (concussion). That leaves the cupboard rather bare for former walk-on Ryker Fyfe, who actually broke his left wrist in the Maryland game. But the Huskers' defense (21st nationally in YPG allowed) should keep the team close even w/o safety Nate Gerry. 8* Under Nebraska/Tennessee

10* TCU (12:00 ET): It was nearly a year ago (just after the New Year) that TCU gave me what still stands as one of my most memorable wins of 2016. If you're a regular client of mine, perhaps you recall that the Horned Frogs were LY's *10* Bowl Game of the Year. Less than 48 hours before gametime, however, disaster struck. QB Trevone Boykin was arrested for punching a police officer and declared out for the game. Consequently, just about everyone wrote off TCU's chances in the Alamo Bowl vs. Oregon. Things looked especially dire when at halftime they trailed the Ducks 31-0. What happened from there is something I'll never forget. Playing w/o their starting QB, the Horned Frogs staged a comeback for the ages (largest in bowl history) and won the game outright, in triple OT, 47-41! Thus, I was never really concerned over whether or not this year's starting QB (Kenny Hill) would play, considering the miracle HC Gary Patterson pulled off last season. For the record, it's looking like Hill will play and for the second year in a row, TCU is a tremendous value in their bowl, this time the Liberty against Georgia.

While TCU entered LY's Alamo Bowl w/ a 10-2 SU record and #11 ranking, this year's squad finished the regular season unranked at 6-6 SU. But they were certainly more "unlucky" than "bad." Case in point; they lost TWO double overtime games, one to Arkansas and another to Texas Tech (both games were in Ft. Worth). They lost outright four different times as a favorite (were 1-7 ATS overall as chalk), thus finished as one of the worst ATS bowlers at 3-9. But that's created some value here. This offense still averages 32 PPG. The defense was #1 in the Big 12 in both yards per play and attempt. Patterson has won four of his last five bowl games, the lone loss coming by a single point to Michigan State in 2012. TCU is 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS the L3 seasons in games where the line is three points or less. They are 6-2 SU/ATS off a bye.

Georgia, like TCU, did not have an ideal finish to the regular season. While TCU was humbled by Kansas State, the same happened to UGA at the hands of in-state rival Ga Tech. They lost 28-27 (as 4-pt faves) at home to the Yellow Jackets, their third such loss by three points or less. First year HC Kirby Smart will have this program on an upward trajectory next year, but here he'll be hampered by an offense that topped TCU's scoring average only twice all year and one of those games was vs. LA Lafayette. The other was the season opener. Yes, some of that is going up against SEC defenses on a weekly basis, but UGA's league was down this year and remember they play in the weaker division. QB Jacob Eason was either "boom or bust" on a weekly basis and when facing pressure it was almost exclusively the latter. The 'Dawgs defense struggled all year against mobile QB's such as Hill. 10* TCU

10* Miami FL (5:30 ET): The line for the Russell Athletic Bowl is sure to turn some heads. We have an unranked team favored over a ranked one, and a Top 16 one at that. But I'm not going to fall for the oddsmakers' trap here. Miami, led by its QB Brad Kaaya, had a strong finish to the regular season. They won their last four games, all by 14 pts or more, covering the spread every time. That includes a 51-28 thrashing of a Pitt team that would go on to upset Clemson (in Death Valley) the following week. Meanwhile, while #16 West Virginia turned in a 10-2 SU regular season, they did so despite beating only TWO teams (BYU, Kansas State) that had winning records. Both of those games were in Morgantown, early in the season, as well. Lay the points.

Perhaps the relatively weak schedule explains why the Mountaineers were able to turn in a surprisingly strong defensive performance this year, despite playing in the Big 12. Note, however, that they were rocked at home by Oklahoma, giving up 56 points. This defense gave up a lot of yards, 431 per game to be exact. So the fact they only allowed 23.4 points per game should be considered somewhat fortuitous. Over the L5 games, WVU allowed a minimum of 440 yds every time out. They needed a +4 TO margin at home to squeak by Baylor at home in the reg season finale. Call me crazy, but I don't think motivation will be as high as it will be on the other side. This bowl assignment following a 10-2 SU campaign hardly seems "rewarding."

Miami's defense allowed only 18.9 PPG this year and gave up far fewer yards than WVU. So they look to have the edge on that side of the ball. With Kaaya under center, I think they're the better offensive team as well. Kaaya has posted three consecutive 3,000+ yard seasons and is the program's all-time passing leader (think about that for a second!). Yes, I am aware that seven Hurricanes have been suspended for this game, but most were not major contributors. The remaining players will desperately want to snap "The U's" 0-fer streak in bowl games that dates back to '06. First year HC Mark Richt is 10-5 SU all-time in bowl games and I think it's important that he finishes w/ a better record than last year's team. The 'Canes played only one bad game all season (at Va Tech) as all eight wins were by two touchdowns or greater. Their other three losses (besides Va Tech) were by a combined 11 pts. I'm high on the job Richt is doing down in Coral Gables. 10* Miami FL

10* Under Northwestern/Pitt (2:00 ET): Though an 8-4 SU record and trip to the New Era Pinstripe Bowl hardly seems like an ideal way to end one's season, Pittsburgh should be proud of how it performed in year #2 under HC Pat Narduzzi. They beat two Power 5 Conference Champions. One was Penn State early in the year, the other was Clemson, as 21.5-pt underdogs in Death Valley! The Panthers can lay claim to being the ONLY ACC team to beat Clemson over the L2 seasons. They can also lay claim to being one of the top Over teams in the country. Every game since the opener, which was against FCS Villanova, finished Over the total. That's 11 straight, for those keeping score at home. But as one (if not the only?) "cold weather" bowl game (Game Time Temp expected to be 42), I believe this game will be lower scoring than expected. Take the Under. 

Northwestern was a clear regression candidate coming into 2016 and regress is exactly what they did, going from 10-3 SU a year ago to 6-6 w/ this one game remaining. The Wildcats have been regular bowl participants during HC Pat Fitzgerald's tenure here, but have won just ONE bowl game in 10 appearances! Though they curiously averaged significantly more points per game on the road than in Evanston, the Under was 8-4 for this team during the regular season. In each of those four Overs, three of those coming on the road, they scored 38 points or more. But in the other eight games, they failed to top 24 points! That's quite the discrepancy.

With two hard-nosed head coaches like Narduzzi and Fitzgerald, a high-scoring affair just doesn't seem right. This total, which is easily the highest for any N'western game this season (by a touchdown), is clearly influenced by some of the high scores both teams saw at the end of the regular season. But note those games were played against non-bowl teams. That 76-61 win over Syracuse in the reg season finale is a result Pitt may never repeat again as long as the program lives. The Under is 9-2 in Northwestern's L11 non-conference games and w/ two run-heavy offenses, expect the clock to stay moving. Pitt allows only 109 yds rushing per game. Northwestern is also stingy when it comes to allowing yds over land. By the way, Pitt also lost its offensive coordinator (Matt Canada) just last week. 10* Under Northwestern/Pitt

10* Baylor (10:15 ET): A "dark cloud" hung above the Baylor program coming into 2016 in the wake of a wave of sexual assault allegations. HC Art Briles was shown the door and Jim Grobe (Ohio, Wake Forest) stepped in as a lame duck. Matt Rhule (Temple) has already accepted the head coaching job for next year, so Grobe and his players (which WON'T include RB Shock Linwood) have one more game together in this most lame duck of seasons, which sees the team enter the Motel 6 Cactus Bowl on a six-game losing skid, an all-time record for any bowler. I called the Bears a "toxic program" heading into the reg season finale at WVU, but they covered for me anyway, even outgaining the Mountaineers in a back and forth 24-21 loss as 17-point dogs. As was the case there, I think there's plenty of value on the Bears here. Take the points.

Baylor experienced the opposite season of fellow bowler Miami (OH), a team that opened 0-6 SU but finished 6-6 SU. The Bears hope to now experience the same ATS result that Miami did in yday's St. Petersberg Bowl. This will be just the third time this year Baylor is an underdog, the other two coming at Oklahoma and WVU. Since the start of 2013, this is just the sixth time they are getting points in any contest. They are 3-2 ATS in the previous five, including an upset in LY's Russell Athletic Bowl vs. North Carolina where they came in similarly short-handed and all they did there was roll up a bowl record 645 yards rushing. So, I'm not really bothered by Linwood's absence as he wasn't even the team's leading rusher in the reg season. Terence Williams (945 yards) was.

I should probably mention Baylor's opponent at some point. That would be Boise State, who like Baylor was 3-9 ATS in the regular season. The Broncos' vaunted reputation actually works against them at the betting window, at least in conference play, where more often than not they are large favorites. By the way, as respected as this program is, they've won only one Mountain West Title since 2011. Despite that, they have won four bowl games since that time. But while they certainly love to take on teams from the Power 5 conferences, it is rare for them to be favored by so much over one. There is precedent (last year) for Baylor playing well in this spot and seeing as the offense is "plug and play," they can overcome those absences too. 10* Baylor

8* Minnesota (7:00 ET): It has certainly been a messy time between the end of the regular season and the Holiday Bowl for Minnesota. Allegations of sexual assault rocked the program, resulting in the suspension of 10 players. Their teammates threatened to boycott the bowl game; that was until they learned more about the allegations. HC Tracy Claeys has found himself in the midst of a firestorm for defending the players looking to boycott and his job may be hanging in the balance. After all that, a game will be played Tuesday night in San Diego and the Golden Gophers are big underdogs to Washington State. As unpopular a side as the Gophers may be w/ bettors and the public right now, I can see a situation unfold where they become galvanized. Certainly, there is now some value in taking the points (line opened much lower) and that's what I'll do. 

The grand irony here is that Claeys did a good job with this team this year. He took over in 2015 for Jerry Kill, who had to resign due to health concerns. The Gophers were one of a handful of 5-7 SU bowl teams LY and like the others, won and covered, defeating Central Michigan in the Quick Lane Bowl (21-14 as four-point chalk). It was the program's first bowl win since 2005, snapping a seven-game losing streak. I was fairly high on the team this year and they improved to 8-4 SU. All four losses occurred in league (Big 10) play and three were by seven points or less. The other was the reg season finale at Wisconsin 31-17 as 14.5-pt dogs. I really like this team's 13-5 ATS mark when taking points. The offense will look to play "keep away" with a rushing game that averages 186 YPG over land. The defense, while somewhat suspect against the pass, typically does a great job rushing the passer. They are 21st in the country in sacks per game.

Washington State was a team I expected to regress some in 2016, but for a second consecutive season they enter the bowl game w/ an 8-4 record. But I'm not sure motivation will be as high here as it was going into LY's 20-14 victory over Miami in the Sun Bowl. Give the Cougars' credit for having another strong passing attack (5th in the country), but the Pac 12 simply was not as strong as the Big 10 was this year. I'm not in love w/ Wazzu as a favorite, a role they are just 3-4 ATS in this year and 1-4 ATS L5 times laying 3.5 to 10 points. Also, there's a bit of a concern here after a disappointing loss in the Apple Cup (Washington) in the reg season finale. Certainly, that game meant more to the players than this one will. 8* Minnesota

10* Over Ohio/Troy (8:00 ET): This is a very low total for a bowl game. Coming into this year, bowl games had seen an average of 58.7 PPG scored dating back to 2011. Each of the first six bowls games went Under before Memphis & Western Kentucky provided the requisite fireworks we're used to seeing this time of year. Of course, a big reason for this total being so low is the fact Ohio was the top Under team in the country at 11-1-1. But rarely did Frank Solich's Bobcats face a total this low. The final score was 29-23 when they lost the MAC Championship Game to Western Michigan. The opponent here in the Dollar General Bowl (played in Mobile, AL) is Troy, themselves a bit of an Under squad. But in a game like this, where the opponents are unfamiliar, I'm willing to wager this game will be higher scoring than expected. Take the Over.

Though a regular participant in these bowl games, Ohio has never had much success. They've won only two of nine and LY's was definitely "one to forget" as they blew a lead against Appalachian State and lost 31-29 (Camellia Bowl). Looking back, we can see the majority of their bowl appearances have resulted in high scoring games. This year's squad has been carried by the defense, which permits just 22.2 points per game. That said, they typically allowed more than that average when facing a bowl eligible opponent. In fact, five of six bowl teams that they faced during the regular season scored at least 27 points against the Bobcats. Only one reg season O/U line was below 50 pts and that was against offensively inept Kent State. The vast majority of their games fell just shy of the individual totals. 

For all the talk surrounding Ohio's defense coming into this matchup, Troy's defense was slightly better on a points per game basis (22.0 allowed). But the key will be the Trojans offense, which led the Sun Belt in scoring, passing and total yardage. They come in averaging a healthy 34.2 PPG and that number would be even higher were in not for the "egg" they laid at home to Arkansas State on November 17th (lost 35-3). This team should be extra motivated by how their reg season ended, another outright loss, this one as seven point favorites at Georgia Southern. I remember that game because I was on Georgia Southern! At one point though, this team was ranked as they were 8-1 SU w/ the lone loss to Clemson. This is their first bowl since 2010. As is the case w/ Ohio, there's a chance this will close as the lowest total for any Troy game this season. 10* Over Ohio/Troy

8* Navy (4:30 ET): It was only three weeks ago that Navy stood tall at 9-2 SU and was heading into the AAC Championship Game as a home favorite over Temple. But, on a fateful play where both QB Will Worth and slotback Toneo Gulley, their fortunes quickly sank (pun intended). First, they lost the AAC Champ Game to Temple 34-10. Then, a week later we saw their historic 14-game win streak over rival Army come to an end. This is is the first time since 2014 that the Middies have experienced B2B losses and because of that and the injuries, we've seen the biggest line move for any bowl game take place here. I'm in "buy low" mode with the Middies here as they face Louisiana Tech in the Armed Forces Bowl. Take the points.

Louisiana Tech also enters in off B2B losses. If you're a regular subscriber, you may recall me playing against the Bulldogs in the C-USA Title Game and it paid off. It appeared as if defense was a foreign concept to the contingent from Ruston as they were shredded for 58 points in a loss to Western Kentucky. The week prior, as 15.5-pt road favorites, they lost 39-24 at Southern Miss. So they too arrive in poor form. Again, the defense was just horrific against WKU as they allowed a ghastly 656 yards and the final score would have been even more lopsided had it not been for three Hilltoppers' turnovers. Given the 235 rushing yards La Tech allowed there, one must wonder how they will handle the top rushing attack in the nation (310.9 YPG). My guess is "not well." This will be the first time that the Bulldogs have seen the vaunted triple option.

To say these teams have different offensive philosophies would be putting it mildly. Navy will run almost exclusively while La Tech has accounted for all of 13 - yes 13 - rush yards the L2 weeks. They did throw for 500+ against WKU, but I don't think QB Ryan Higgins will find that same success here against the Navy defense. Meanwhile, Navy backup Zach Abbey should improve dramatically from his performance against Army. He's had an extra week to prepare here and will be facing a defense that doesn't face the triple option in practice every day. The line move has begat a ton of value and it's absolutely worth pointing out that Navy has been a consistent money-maker taking points through the years. They've also won their bowl game each of the L3 years, including this one in 2015. 8* Navy

8* Idaho (7:00 ET): Idaho is probably one of the weakest teams in the entire bowl field, but this is still far too many points that they are getting. I can't see Colorado State being that enthused about this bowl assignment. Boise is a place they regularly travel to because of the Mountain West schedule and sure enough one of their five losses this year took place on this field. They did cover against Boise State, losing only 28-23 as huge 28-pt dogs. Starting with that game, they actually closed the regular season w/ seven-game ATS win streak. Things really ended on a high note as they thrashed both New Mexico and San Diego State. But, again, I seriously doubt the Rams will be able to match that intensity in this "ho-hum" matchup, even though they are searching for their first bowl win since '13. Take the points. 

Believe it or not, Idaho is 2-0 SU/ATS all-time in bowl appearances. Both were on this field in what was then known as the Humanitarian Bowl. The last was in 2009. So the Vandals should be absolutely thrilled to be here, especially since it will be the program's last bowl game. Wait, what? Yes, the school was booted from the Sun Belt and thus has made the logical decision to drop down to the FCS level. Despite knowing this coming into the year, the team performed very well for 4th year HC Paul Petrino, particularly down the stretch. Like Colo State, they also come in riding a seven-game ATS win streak! All of those games came against SBC foes, but the lone SU loss was on the road to Applachian State. Thus, I'll reiterate that this sure does seem like a lot of points.

All the talk here seems to be centered on QB Nick Stevens and the Colorado State offense, but what about an Idaho defense that allowed 14 pts or less in three of its final four reg season games? The Vandals' overall defensive numbers are a bit skewed due to early season games vs. Washington and Washington State. (Remember that Colorado State was also crushed by Colorado in it season opener). Both teams are a lot different now than they were back in September, but a real key in handicapping this matchup is that this will be just the second time that CSU is favored by double digits in FBS play this year. In fact, they were the betting favorite in only 4 of 11 FBS games! 8* Idaho

10* BYU (9:00 ET): Wyoming is in a bowl for the first time in the Craig Bohl era (last appearance was 2011 New Mexico Bowl), which admittedly only began three years ago. However, credit the job done by Bohl here as LY's team went just 2-10 straight up. This marks only the fourth time since the '93 Copper Bowl that the Cowboys are playing in a postseason game. They went 8-5 SU this year and made a first-ever appearance in the Mt. West Championship Game, losing it (at home) to San Diego State 27-24 as seven-point dogs. However, the issue I see here is that when you take the Pokes out of Laramie, they simply are not as good. Coming into 2016, they had dropped 16 of 18 games away from home and even w/ this season' resurgence, they went just 2-4 SU, 1-4-1 ATS. Perhaps you're surprised by how big the number is here, but I say "lay it."

In fact, I would have the number closer to two touchdowns here, which is why this grades out as such a strong play. BYU certainly will want to atone for LY's dreadful Las Vegas Bowl performance against rival Utah where they fell way behind early and lost 35-28. While this program regularly participates in bowl games, they haven't won since appearing in this very one (Poinsettia) back in 2012 against San Diego State. Kalani Sitake replaced Bronco Mendenhall (left for Virginia) at the helm this year and led the Cougars to an 8-4 SU record where all four losses were by a FG or less. Three of those losses came in September, to Utah, UCLA and West Virginia, but after that the team rallied for a 7-1 SU finish w/ the one loss coming at Boise State by a single points. This is a team that beat Toledo, Michigan State and Mississippi State. They also closed the regular season strong w/ four consecutive wins by 17 points or more.

Tanner Mangum will be starting at QB here for BYU as Taysom Hill injured his elbow in the reg season finale. No worries; Mangum has started multiple times in his career here, including a few memorable victories last season. You really have to worry about a leaky Wyoming defense, which permits 34.8 PPG and that number jumps to 42.5 PPG away from home! Their last two away games, the Cowboys have allowed 56 and 69 points and they were actually favored in both instances. I project a big game here for BYU RB Jamaal Williams, who ran for nearly 1200 yds in the reg season despite missing three games. The Cougars also have a big edge on defense and on special teams in this matchup. Look for them to beat an old conference foe soundly in this one. 10* BYU

8* Central Michigan (2:30 ET): Central Michigan has not won a Bowl Game since 2012, the Little Caesar's over Western Kentucky, 24-21 as six-point underdogs. Two years later, they had a rematch in the Bahamas w/ WKU, which featured one of the wildest finishes in bowl history, and lost 49-48 as three-point dogs. Last year, they drew a tough assignment in the Quick Lane Bowl against Minnesota and lost 21-14, failing to cover as four-point dogs. That, coupled w/ the fact this team did not end the regular season well, should have them supremely motivated here in the Miami Beach Bowl vs. Tulsa. Sure, the Golden Hurricane are looking for their first bowl win since 2012 as well. But, it's difficult to like them as DD favorites in this spot. Take the points.

It's easy to forget now, but at one point Central Michigan stood at 3-0 SU (w/ a win at Oklahoma State) and found itself favored playing on the road against a Power 5 school (Virginia). From that point on, the Chippewas finished just 2-7 ATS at the pay window and lost a couple of "toss up" games outright. The most embarrassing was a 27-21 defeat in Mt. Pleasant at the hands of Kent State, who came in as a 12-pt dog. There were also two times that the Chips closed as one-point road favorites (at Miami, E Michigan) only to lose. Both of those teams seemed to have a bit of "lady luck" riding on their shoulders though. Yes, I know the early season win over Oklahoma State was controversial, but regardless that's still a Top 25 team they were competitive against. This is a senior-laden team that will have a bad taste in its mouth from the way the reg season ended. "We want to win, get a bowl ring, hold a trophy -- something we haven't been able to do," senior quarterback Cooper Rush said. "It's definitely on our mind." The only game CMU was getting more points than they are here was the Oklahoma State game.

Both head coaches here are in the second year w/ their respective programs. For Philip Montgomery and Tulsa, there was major improvement this season. Last year, they were double digit underdogs against a clearly overvalued Va Tech side that was playing in Frank Beamer's swan song. It was a wild 55-52 loss in the Independence Bowl and that surprisingly strong showing bled over into a 9-3 SU campaign in 2016. The Golden Hurricane do have the #6 offense nationally in terms of yardage and have a chance to finish w/ a 3,000 yd QB, two 1,000 yd RBs and two 1,000 yd WR's. But I suspect those gaudy stats are what have led them to be the overvalued side in this year's bowl. Sure, the Golden Hurricane's only three losses came to Ohio State, Houston and Navy. But they didn't really beat anyone of substance either. They were just 3-3 SU on the road (as opposed to 6-0 SU at home). Honestly, I see a Central Michigan outright win as a more likely result than a Tulsa blowout win. 8* Central Michigan

8* Southern Miss (9:00 ET): The prevailing storyline here is likely to be LA Lafayette's 4-0 SU and ATS record in New Orleans Bowls, having previously appeared in this game every year from 2011-14. After a one-year hiatus (went 4-8 SU LY and thus were not bowl eligible), the Ragin Cajuns will again conclude their season in the Superdome. The opponent this time is an old foe, Southern Miss, who holds a 38-11-1 all-time record in head-to-head matchups. That includes an eight-game win streak from 1993 to 2008 (last meeting). While I'm sure the Ragin Cajuns are happy to be back in a bowl game, I like Southern Miss here as they're drawing a much easier assignment compared to LY's bowl matchup where they had to face Washington in the Heart of Dallas Bowl. The Golden Eagles will be motivated to earn their first bowl victory since 2011. Lay the points.

Southern Miss did not have a particularly strong finish to the regular season, at one point failing to cover seven consecutive games. But they gained bowl eligibility w/ a 39-24 upset of C-USA West Champ La Tech (as 15.5-pt dogs!) in the reg season finale. The key to that win and the play here is the presence of QB Nick Mullins, who 1st year HC Jay Hopson called "100 percent" for this game. Despite missing significant time, first w/ a broken thumb and then a concussion, Mullins still threw for 22 TD passes and nearly 3,000 yards. In helping engineer the upset of Louisiana Tech, he threw for 342 yards and three touchdowns. After jumping from three wins in 2014 to nine last year, regression (in terms of record) was inevitable for the Golden Eagles, especially w/ a 1st time HC (Hopson) taking over for Todd Monken (now on Tampa Bay Bucs' staff). But something that absolutely must be considered here is this team outgained every opponent it played this year, save for one (LSU!) and also won at Kentucky 44-35. With Mullins back, this is a totally different team.

Meanwhile, La Lafayette needed a strong close to become bowl eligible and that's what they got w/ three wins in the last four games (4-0 ATS), punctuated by a blowout of rival LA Monroe, 30-3, in the finale. But their only two wins against bowl teams were South Alabama and Arkansas State, both at home by five points. I say USM has a huge edge at QB here w/ Mullins vs. ULL's Anthony Jennings. Over the course of the season, ULL was outscored. Though this game is being played in the state of Louisiana, Southern Miss figures to still have plenty of crowd support present. 8* Southern Miss

10* Under UTSA/New Mexico (2:00 ET): How appropriate that for the second year in a row and fourth time since '07 that the University of New Mexico will take part in the New Mexico Bowl? This year's edition of Lobos football was the strongest yet in HC Bob Davie's five-year tenure, at least record-wise, as they went 8-4 straight up, including a 56-35 thrashing of a good Wyoming team (that admittedly had nothing to play for) in the regular season finale. The opponent here will be 1st time bowler UTSA, a school that has only been full-time at the FBS level for four years. I had success both playing on (at Arizona State) and against (at Rice) the Roadrunners this year as they finished off a 6-6 SU campaign w/ a 33-14 win over Charlotte. Though I think the underdog will be competitive here, I do not believe they will win their 1st ever bowl in what amounts to a "true" road game. Thus, we turn to the total instead.

Perhaps the key record in handicapping this game is that New Mexico went 10-2 Over during the regular season, including a perfect 6-0 in Albuquerque. In fact, the Over cashed in each of the team's first seven games this year. Most of the totals were in this same neighborhood, but even though bowls tend to be high-scoring, I'm going the other way in this one. The key obviously will be how well can UTSA defend the New Mexico' rushing attack, which led the nation at 361 YPG. My guess is "a lot better than Wyoming" as the Pokes simply allowed themselves to be run over to the tune of 568 yds! In the regular season, UTSA wasn't that bad against the run, giving up "only" 158 yards at 4.4 YPC. They are used to seeing run-heavy offenses at this point. The New Mexico offense is not much of a threat to pass.

UTSA's own offensive production dips rather dramatically on the road, down to 22.8 PPG. That's about two touchdowns per game less than what they average at home. As a first time bowler, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Roadrunners start slow here. Getting back to the defense, a big help for the Roadrunners is that they have had a few weeks to prepare for the UNM triple option. Both of these teams like to predominantly run the ball, so as long as the defenses are providing some resistance, then that should lead to the clock continuing to roll and a quicker ballgame. These teams actually met in both 2013 and 2014 and the Under cashed both times. In each instance, the winning side scored just 21 points! I'm not saying this game will be that low-scoring, but the O/U line is still too high. 10* Under UTSA/New Mexico

10* Penn State (8:00 ET): This year's Big 10 Championship Game almost has the feel of a "bronze medal game" as the national perception is that LW's Ohio State-Michigan tilt determined the conference's true "champion." But the reality is that a game is to be played in Indianapolis and Penn State and Wisconsin both believe they have a shot at the College Football Playoff. And if either Clemson or Washington were to fall in their conference title games, the winner here has an excellent shot at moving up. Penn State, if they were to win Saturday night, would have a very legitimate argument for inclusion in the top four as they beat Ohio State head to head. They are one of the hottest teams in the entire country right now w/ eight straight wins and seven straight covers, so in what projects as a fairly even game, I'll take the points.

The Nittany Lions have scored at least 39 points in five consecutive games. During this seven-game ATS win streak, they have won by two touchdowns six times and the other win was the upset of Ohio State. I give PSU a huge edge at the most important position, quarterback, with Trace McSorley. In the eight-game SU win streak, McSorely has a 16-2 TD-INT ratio. Meanwhile, Wisconsin may be w/o Alex Hornibrook (concussion), leaving Bart Houston as potentially the Badgers' only option under center. Houston threw for only 123 yds LW in a 31-17 win over Minnesota where the Badgers trailed entering the fourth quarter and were fortunate to force four turnovers. In the L5 games, the Wisconsin passing attack has averaged just 138.4 YPG and that's not going against the best Big 10 teams.

Wisconsin has in fact been very fortunate to force 12 turnovers total the L3 wks. On the other side of the ledger, Penn State has turned it over just three times total in the L5 games. Most feel the Badgers have the better defense in this one, but note that the Nittany Lions were missing their entire starting LB corps against Michigan. Since getting Jason Cabinda and Brandon Bell back, they've been a lot stronger. The L3 wks have seen the Nittany Lions allow an average of just 294.7 YPG. These teams have actually not met since 2013 when PSU shocked Wisconsin as 24-point underdogs - in Madison. Don't discount the Nittany Lions' rather sizable edge on special teams either. Underdogs are 5-0 ATS all-time in Big 10 Championship Games including three outright upsets. 10* Penn State

8* Baylor (3:30 ET): I fully understand that it's a bit of toxic situation in Waco w/ an underacheiving team playing for a lame duck head coach. Following a 6-0 SU start, the Bears have lost five in a row coming into the regular season finale, which will be a challenge here in Morgantown. But w/ nothing to play for here themselves; WVU probably isn't looking to win by any kind of margin here. This number, which has been bet up throughout the course of the week, was already inflated to begin with. To me, the spread should be somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 pts, not 17. So we're getting some good value w/ a team that was 6-0 at one point and has actually been the betting favorite in four of their five losses. They put up over 600 total yds LW vs. Texas Tech, but were undone by a -4 turnover margin. Take the points.

Baylor has had an extra day to prepare here, which is a bit of advantage. While they put up 634 total yards of offense last Friday, the Bears defense also gave up 600+ (646). While you might expect to find that the Bears have a poor pass defense, that's not really the case as they rank #2 in Big 12, allowing just 234.2 YPG. I do not expect WVU QB Skylar Howard to have the same kind of success he did LW vs. Iowa State where he somehow completed 12 passes for 330 yards, an average of 27.2 yards per completion w/ 5 TDs!  On offense, Baylor still averages 36.2 PPG and even w/ a backup QB (Zach Smith), I expect them to put plenty of points on the board. Remember that this is a "plug and play" offense and virtually every QB in the system has thrived. This is almost unprecedented territory for the Bears as an underdog. They were 19.5-pt dogs at Oklahoma, but the previous two seasons had found them getting points just twice total and both lines were five-points or less. 

Though the final score read 49-19 last week for the Mountaineers, total yardage w/ Iowa State was fairly even. It was 613-561, but the key was being +4 in turnover margin, the opposite of Baylor's game last week. Given the # of total yards LW, you may not think this matters, but WVU is w/o its top three running backs and was forced to take the redshirt off Martell Pettaway. Though better Baylor teams have lost the L2 visits to Morgantown, I can't help but remember Baylor won LY's meeting in Waco 62-38 as 20-pt favorites. The market has moved far too much against Jim Grobe's team. 8* Baylor

10* Georgia Southern (12:00 ET): Classic contrarian play here. Troy is absolutely overvalued here as they still have a chance to clinch a share of the Sun Belt title w/ a win. Appalachian State (idle this week) is already guaranteed no worse than a share at 7-1 SU in league play and there's a strong likelihood that Arkansas State will finish w/ the same record as they finish the regular season against the worst team in the country, Texas State. Troy had not lost a SBC game until being blown out by Arkansas State, 35-3, at home two weeks ago. They bounced back w/ a predictable 40-7 drubbing of Texas State last Saturday. Meanwhile, Georgia Southern had last weekend off. While the Eagles won't be going bowling this year, this is an excellent shot to play "spoiler" and the Seniors will definitely want to go out as winners (especially w/ this game being on ESPN2). Take the points.

1st year GSU HC Tyson Summers inherited a team that had gone 14-2 SU vs. the rest of the Sun Belt the last two years. They opened 2-0 in conference this year, 3-0 overall. But things have since gone "in reverse" in Statesboro as the team is 4-7 SU mark (3-4 conference). The Eagles played a challenging non-conference slate that included Ole Miss, Georgia Tech and Western Michigan. While Troy played Clemson tough early in the year, I'll argue that Georgia Southern is much better than its record. The Eagles have been outscored by only 2.6 PPG in Sun Belt action and just 0.2 PPG overall! Their last two games have both been losses by seven pts or less where they were favored. 

The market has clearly whiffed on Georgia Southern, who is 2-9 ATS including three outright losses as a favorite. In fact, they've gone just 1-6 ATS when asked to lay points. The only four teams that they were an underdog to are: Ole Miss, Georgia Tech, Western Michigan and Appalachian State. Of those, App State was the lone home game. The Eagles were picked to finish ahead of the Trojans prior to the start of the year, so this line has to be viewed as a bargain, especially considering GSU was a six-point favorite AT Troy LY and won 45-10! In two meetings as SBC rivals, the Eagles have outscored the Trojans 87-20! 10* Georgia Southern