5* NFL UNDERDOG OF THE YEAR

Kansas City Chiefs +1.5

Andy Reid off the bye week. He is 15-2 straight up and 12-5 against the spread. It's also a GREAT situational bet to back a team that goes into the bye week off an ugly loss. The last thing everyone remembers about the KC Chiefs is that embarrassing beatdown against the Steelers in primetime. KC has now had two weeks to stew over that defeat and prepare for the Raiders. They should come out focused and fired up.

Oakland is over-valued now. They have been fortunate to win some of these games and definitely should have lost last week against the Chargers, but the Chargers did what they always do, and shot themselves in the foot. Oakland is known for choking when they are supposed to win. This team has been as bad as it gets as the favorite. The Raiders are 7-23 ATS laying points and are 35-68 ATS at home.

5* CFB SHOOTOUT OF THE MONTH

Arizona State vs. Colorado OVER 60

4* CFB VEGAS INSIDER

Northern Illinois +2.5

Sources love the home dog here. Huge money has made this game drop from the key number of 3. CMU is 4-2 and Northern Illinois is 1-5 but this game is lined basically at pick? Nothern Illinois has had CMU's number, covering 7 of the last 9 meetings. 

4* 

San Diego Chargers +3.5

The Oakland Raiders are known for choking when they are expected to win. This team has been awful as a favorite. They are 7-22 ATS laying points and are 35-67 ATS at home. The underdog has covered in 12 of the last 14 meetings between these two. If San Diego didn't fall apart in the 4th quarter, the Chargers would be undefeated. I know that's a lot of "shoulda, coulda, woulda" but it shows that this team is better than their 1-3 record and certainly should not be over FG underdogs.  

5* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH

Baltimore Ravens -3.5

LOVE the Ravens to bounce back after their first loss of the season. Baltimore should own this Redskins defense. The Skins have a Bottom 3 defense. It is just awful. Washington is the WORST team on 3rd down this year, giving up nearly 9 yards a play. The Ravens are the 2nd BEST. More often than not, Football really comes down to two things; How you perform on 3rd down and turnovers. Well, the Redskins can't stop anyone on 3rd down, where the Ravens are getting off the field and Kirk Cousins is one of the most turnover prone QBs in the game. 

4*

Idaho +5

4*

Oklahoma vs. Texas OVER 73

5* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH

Houston Texans -4

This line has dropped too much now and its time to strike. This opener was 7 and then the news came out about JJ Watt and it started to fall. We know JJ Watt is one of, if not, the best defensive players in the league. However, he isn't worth 3 points. He is worth 1 point MAX. He is a beast at the line of scrimmage but he isn't a QB or even a middle linebacker (who quarterbacks the defense.) Furthermore, I love backing teams when their star player is out. This works exceptionally well in the NBA also. It gives the players that extra motivation and they rally around eachother to pick up the slack. 

Everyone's last memory of the Texans is that awful performance they gave against the New England Patriots on Thursday Night Football. Knee jerk reaction is that this team is terrible because they couldn't beat a 3rd string QB. The Texans have had 10 days to stew on that loss and it's usually a great bet to back a team off of their worst loss of the season. Just look the Rams. They were being called the "Worst team in the NFL" after their 28-0 primetime defeat against San Francisco. The Rams took out the Seattle Seahawks the next week and are now 2-1 on the season.

The Houston Texans have owned the Tennessee Titans and they have done it without a stud QB. Houston has covered 5 straight against Tennessee. They also are 20-8 ATS after scoring 2 TDs or less in their previous game. As for the Titans, this team has been the worst bet for several years now. In the past 3 and a half years, the Titans have covered the spread only 14 times. The are also just 3-21-3 in the AFC South division. 

5*

Akron vs. Kent State UNDER 54

5* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR

Pittsburgh Steelers -3

PLEASE READ:

There are two ways to attack this game. If you can't get the 3, buy the hook. Also recommend parlaying Pittsburgh Steelers moneyline with Miami Dolphins moneyline.

I have the Steelers as the 2nd best team in the NFL right now, behind the Patriots. This offense is the real deal and their defense has been stifling the first two weeks. One of my simple rules in the NFL is who has the better QB and who has the better coach. Well, Pittsburgh has both of them by a landslide. 

The Eagles and Wentz are getting way too much hype right now. I will admit, they did burn us on Monday Night, but I believe that game was lost by Jay Cutler (usually is) than Wentz winning the game. The Eagles only averaged 4 yards a play in that game. That will not get it done. They also benefitted from short fields due to turnovers. Think about who Philly has beaten. They won at home against the worst team in the league (Cleveland) and then beat arguably the 2nd worst team in the league, the Bears.

This is a monumental mismatch in all 3 phases of the game. I even say special teams because the Eagles had a horrific gaff (punting in the middle of the field on max protection) on a punt vs. the Bears that lead to a TD.

Even though this is a home game for the Eagles, the spots favors the Steelers. Pittsburgh played at home last week and going to Philadelphia is right in their back yard, so no travel issues there. The Eagles are playing on the short week, since they played MNF, and the Eagles are 0-5 ATS the following Sunday after playing Monday Night Football.

The Eagles true colors will show this Sunday. If they somehow take this one from the mighty Steelers, then I will be a true believer. However, I am expecting this game to get ugly. Barring turnovers, there isn't ANY reason why the Steelers don't punish the birds.

4* NFL TOP PLAY SHOOTOUT

San Diego Chargers vs. Indianapolis Colts OVER 51

The Colts are an over team, especially at home. I firmly believe if you took the over blindly in every Colts home game this season, you would come out on top. The Colts are extremely banged up on the defensive end and honestly, even if they were heathy, this D is still bad. So far, Indy has allowed 73 points and a 74% COMPLETION percentage. Philip Rivers should have a field day in the dome. These are two teams that love to throw the ball. Indy uses passing plays on 69% of their drives.

The Chargers defense isn't that special either. They got gashed by Kansas City and the Chiefs aren't known for their offensive prowess. Going back to last season, The Chargers have given up at least 24 points in 10 of their last 11 games. This game should be an offensive showcase with a ton of passing and a lot of missed assignments on defense.

4*

Bowling Green vs. Memphis UNDER 68.5

4*

Nebraska vs. Northwestern UNDER 48

Two teams that run, run, and run some more. Nebraska has looked sharp on offense but they have played teams this season that simply don't play defense. Northwestern's strength IS defense. Their offense, however, is a laughing stock. Northwestern is one of those teams that you should only look towards the under. Almost like the Saints in the NFL, only look over or pass. Northwestern has gone under the total in 27 of their last 35 home games. I expect this clock to be moving pretty quickly with all the running going on and with a shorter game, that means less points.

4*

Vanderbilt vs. Western Kentucky UNDER 52

With these 4 top totals plays, my CFB total expert was ecstatic with these lines. He was like a kid on christmas explaining them to me. Projections have Florida/Tennessee off by 7 points, Vandy/WKU off by 10 points, Nebraska/Northwestern off by 10 points, and BG/Memphis off by 8. I will be honest with you guys. I trust his opinion and always run totals games I have found through his projections. Well, we are 9-2. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

As for the game, it's pretty simple. Vanderbilt has ZERO offense and a solid defense. These two teams actually met last year and the final score was 14-12. This total is DOUBLE that! Way too high. The UNDER is also 41-19 for Vandy following a loss.

4*

Florida vs. Tennessee UNDER 43.5

This just missed being a 5*. 45 was the number for the big strike but we still LOVE this play above the key number of 42.

What can't we say about the Florida defense. Granted, it's still early in the season, but this team is as good as gets. They have allowed 4.7 points per game, lead the nation in total defense, and rank 2nd against the run. Florida also is starting their back up QB, due to injury, and this should lead to a very conservative game plan. There is just something about Florida that is in the head's of the Tennessee Volunteers. They have lost 11 straight and can't get out of their own way. With the Tennessee offense struggling (Ranked #101) and the fact that the best unit on the Field is that Florida defense, this should be a good ol' fashioned defensive battle.

5* Big 10 GAME OF THE MONTH

Iowa -13

It's no secret on why we are taking Iowa here. This team just got beat by FCS, North Dakota State, on their home turf. This team HAS to bounce back. Iowa has been stellar on the road, against the number, in recent years. Iowa is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games, which includes a perfect 10-0 as a road favorite. The Hawkeyes still have a monster defense that will make it very difficult for the Rutgers offense to have any success.

I have Rutgers as one of the worst teams in the nation. This team fell behind 21-0 to NEW MEXICO! (I do like an Iowa 1st Half bet also for this game.) The Scarlet Knights have always been the doormat for the stellar Big 10 teams to lay a beat down. I could honestly list all these games but go ahead and look up recent performances of Rutgers against OSU, MSU, PSU, Michigan, etc. They have been DESTROYED! Under 2 touchdowns is cheap here and as long as the Hawkeyes are at least half awake, they cruise.

4* CFB GAME OF THE WEEK

Utah -3

The key here is home field advantage. The home team has won the last 5 meetings against the spread. Also, Utah plays in the altitude which is a big time factor. Visiting college kids always have a tough time adjusting to the thin air and it always shows in the 2nd half. USC has had it's problems in the higher elevation (Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, etc.) and has covered just once in their last 5 games played in the altitude. The Trojans are just 7-20 ATS on the road as well.

USC has had a BRUTAL schedule and it has taken its toll. This team is starting to break down. Add in the fact that this offensive line is struggling and their starting a new QB...this could be a disaster. Utah's defensive front is fierce and ranks #2 in the Nation in sacks. 

I'd also like to add that this team chemistry has go to be shot right now for the Trojans with the reports swirling around a player punching a coach. Can't be good for morale.

5* NFL SHOOTOUT OF THE MONTH

New Orleans Saints vs. New York Giants OVER 52.5

Get this one NOW! I expect this one to close at 54-55 or even higher

We took the Saints over last week and we'll do it again this week. We stated that the Saints had the worst defense last season and that their games averaged 55 points. Nothing has changed much. They still have that potent offense but a dreadful defense. They now play another team, the Giants, that have a terrific offense and a suspect defense.

Since 2009, these two teams have met 4 times and each game has featured a TON of scoring.

2009: 48-27 (75 points)

2011: 49-24 (73 points)

2012: 52-27 (79 points)

2014: 52-49 (101 points)

Not going to over think this one. Two pass happy offenses that can stretch the field. Not much has change with these two teams since 2009. Drew Brees and Eli Manning are still under center with terrific weapons around them. 

4* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK

Carolina Panthers -13.5

From a situational stand point, this is a great spot for the Panthers and a terrible spot for the 49ers. The Panthers come off a tough loss on Thursday Night where the 49ers come off an impressive shutout victory on Monday Night. Immediate knee jerk reaction is that the Panthers might not be as good and that the 49ers are better than we thought. 

San Francisco did this exact thing on Monday Night Football Week 1 of last year, destroying the Vikings, but still ended up being one of the worst teams in the NFL. Well what did the 49ers do in Week 2? They got CRUSHED by the Steelers 43-18. The Steelers were also coming off a loss in Week 1 and played their home opener in Week 2, just like the Panthers do this season. I expect a similar result here. SF played on the short week (since it was MNF) and had to travel to the East Coast. The Panthers have had since Thursday to prepare off their heartbreaking loss and will no doubt want to lay a beat down to SF at home. 

Don't be fooled, the 49ers are still a bad team. If they get down early in this game, Goodnight San Francisco. They don't have the type of offense to scramble from behind, especially against this ferocious defense of the Carolina Panthers.

5* Ohio State/Oklahoma MAX BET

Oklahoma +1.5

This line is a severe over-reaction. When "Games of the year" lines were posted back in July, the Oklahoma Sooners were touchdown favorites against the Ohio State Buckeyes. After two games into the young season, they are now 1.5/2 point underdogs. This is too big of an adjustment. This line has also made history as this is the first time in 16 years that the Oklahoma Sooners are underdogs at home. That should tell you something. Obviously this line has moved because of the loss they suffered against Houston in Week 1. Houston is a great team however. They also had the advantage of all off-season to prepare for Oklahoma so I will give the Sooners a pass on that one.

I will say this, Saturday's game is the season for the Sooners. If they lose this game, forget the playoffs. Oklahoma will move right back into the post-season picture with a win here. Now, I'm not going to say this game doesn't mean the same for Ohio State, but Ohio State can lose this game and they'll still be alright. If they lose but win out (including beating Michigan) and they'll be in the playoff.

Ohio State did crush Tulsa last week but they looked terrible in the first half. Dane Evans handed them 2 pick six touch downs in the final 5 minutes. The 2nd one was mind-blowing, where he or the coach decided to throw in a monsoon, instead of going into the half down 13-3. Now its 20-3, all their momentum was gone and they quit in the 2nd half. Before Evan's idiocracy, it was 6-3. Ohio State's offense only managed 6 points against Tulsa! Not having a lot of returning starters showed in that ball game for the Buckeyes. 

Bottomline is that this is the Sooners season. The players know it and maybe more importantly, the fans know it. Norman Oklahoma should be live and loud Saturday. Look for Oklahoma to keep their playoff hopes alive.

4* CFB TOP PLAY SHOOTOUT

Troy vs. Southern Mississippi OVER 65

Two teams that can obviously put up points and play fast. They both are Top 20 offenses and rank #2 or #34 in tempo. Troy just put up 24 points on the Clemson defense. Granted it was against Austin Peay, but they put up 57 in their first game. Southern Mississippi is a team that is all about offense and has scored 100 points already this season. A trend that I love in this game is that Troy has gone over the total in 38 of their last 52 non-conference games. When team's aren't familiar with Troy, their offense has success. 

4* CFB Vegas Insider 

Appalachian State +3.5

4* MNF Rams/49ers BEST BET

Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers UNDER 45

(This line has dropped now from 45 all the way to 43-42. I would downgrade to 3% at that number and is a NO play below 42.)

We'll call this line inflation the Chip Kelly factor. These two teams haven't changed much from last season. Both teams don't really have the offensive fire power for a shootout but they do have decent defenses. I wouldn't be surprised to see this line actually climb back up as we get closer to kick-off with the public bets coming in on the over for a primetime game. Both QB's will be game manager types here featuring short passes and a TON of running. It's almost always a good bet taking the under with teams that have a lot of rushing attempts because the clock will continue to run and shorten the game. 

The Rams and 49ers have been total UNDER teams. The Rams have gone under in 39 of their 56 road games, which includes 6 of their last 7. San Francisco has gone under the total in 18 of their last 23 home games. Division battles typically go under because of the familiarity they have with each other. 4 of the last 5 meetings have gone under the total between these two clubs and this game shouldn't be any different.

5* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH

Baltimore Ravens -3

This one comes down to 4 major factors. Baltimore has the better QB, the better head coach, they are at home, and are looking to bounce back from one of the worst seasons in franchise history. I think the Ryan brothers are as over-rated as it gets, especially Rob Ryan. The big problem with the Ryan regime is discipline. Rex Ryan's teams have always been highly penalized on the field. You simply cannot afford to make dumb penalties on the road. All it takes is one personal foul or unsportsmanlike conduct penalty to extend a drive that allows the crowd to go berserk and it will give ALL the momentum to the home team.

Everyone is all over Tyrod Taylor this year. Even the TV show "Ballers" talks about how "great" he is at quarterback. I'm not buying it. I think he will regress this season. Let's not forget, Tyrod was on the Ravens for a good portion of his career, so they should know his tendencies pretty well. Bottomline here is that the Bills are still the Bills (the team that seems like they lose on purpose) and the Ravens are the team that are always in the playoff picture. Ravens roll at home.

4* NFL TOP PLAY SHOOTOUT

Oakland Raiders vs. New Orleans Saints OVER 51

The New Orleans Saints simply go over the total when playing at home. Yes, their offense usually is firing on all cylinders at the Superdome, but their defense plays a big role in that as well. Last year the Saints were ranked dead last (32nd) in scoring defense and 31st in total defense. New Orleans scores a bunch but also gives up a lot. In fact, the average total score for a Saints game last season was 55 points. They take on a young Raiders team that has a ton of offensive firepower. Derek Carr, along with Amari Cooper, showed last year that they can really stretch the field. They averaged 5.4 yards per play but also gave up 5.5 yards. This game should be a "who has the ball last, wins."

4* NFL VEGAS INSIDER

Chicago Bears +6

5* CFB NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH

Tulsa +29

This number is inflated due to the drubbing Ohio State put on Bowling Green last week. We did have the Buckeyes in that one and I knew if they took care of business, we were going to fade them here. Ohio State has a HUGE game on deck against the Oklahoma Sooners. 

I like Tulsa because they can definitely put up some points. They have former Baylor OC calling the plays, so they can score with anyone in the country. 4+ touchdown is a lot to give a team with a high powered offense. The Golden Hurricane has been fantastic against the number as well. They have covered 5 straight non-conference games and are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games. Look for Tulsa to keep it much closer than expected.

5* CFB UNDERDOG MAX BET

Massachusetts (UMass) +17 

Getting this one out now before it goes lower than 17. Make sure to get the 17.

What makes taking the points so special in this game is the fact that the total is set very low. At post this total was 41, but now has crept down to 39. Points are going to be tough to come by in this game and it's going to take a gigantic effort from an anemic BC offense, in a bad spot, to even score that many, let alone cover these points.

Boston College returns from Dublin without a week off for yet another road/neutral game. Terrible scheduling spot for them to prepare. The NFL finally woke up and gave the teams traveling to London a week off the following week, but not the NCAA. UMass played Florida to a 10-7 score through 3 quarters last week before losing 24-7. Florida is hands down a better team than Boston College and Massachusetts only lost by 17 IN Florida. If that game is any indication, then The Minutemen should easily stay inside this number Saturday.

5* NFL Thursday Night Football MAX BET

Carolina Panthers -3

There's one simple rule for me when handicapping the NFL. Who's got the better QB and who has the better Coach. Well, CLEARLY Carolina has the better QB. The Broncos are in some real trouble at the quarterback position. I know they do have one of, if not, the best defenses in the game. but Carolina's defense is pretty darn good as well. The Denver defense isn't going to matter a whole lot when they're turning the ball over deep in their own territory. Cam Newton gets the monster 6 foot 6 Wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin back for this game. This is going to really open up this already potent attack.

I get the whole story about the Super Bowl hangover and the Super Bowl losers doing terribly ATS, but I believe this year is different. This is the first time the Super Bowl winner will have a change at QB in 15 years. Huge revenge angle here for Carolina. We know the Panthers only had 1 loss last year (besides the Super Bowl) and how did they respond...by covering the spread by 18 points. Rivera has always done well following a loss. This team also dominates when they are listed as the favorite. Since 2013, only the Vikings and the Packers have better winning percentages as a favorite than the Panthers do. Carolina also averages beating those spreads by nearly 5 points a game. 

Bottomline here is that Carolina is going to stack the box and make whoever starts for them (Denver) at QB to beat them through the air. As long as the Panthers don't get bit by the injury or turnover bug in this game, they cruise to a 7+ point victory.

(Still have a couple weeks before the season starts. Make sure to check back before game day to see if there are any added updates.)

**Trevor Siemian is starting at QB. Who knows, this guy could come out and become the next Tom Brady but I highly doubt it. He was awful his senior year at Northwestern. He completed just over 50% of his passes, had 11 INTs, and just 7 TDs. He also averaged just 5 YARDS PER PASSING ATTEMPT! At the end of the day, I realize this might be the "square" or "public" play, but how does a hungry Cam Newton looking to bounce back from his worst performance ever in the Super Bowl, not beat (what I'm calling) "The WORST starting QB for a defending Super Bowl Champion...of ALL TIME"

5* NCAA UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH

South Alabama +31.5

Play for 4% at 28.5

4* FS1 TOP PLAY

Kansas State +16

It's always smart to back one of the best college coaches of all time, Bill Snyder, when he is catching points. He is 20-6 ATS his last 26 times as the underdog which includes 10 outright upsets. Frankly, this is too many points for a Stanford team to lay that has to replace their 4 year QB starter. They have said that they will be trying out two quarterbacks for this game, so this will hurt the rhythm of the offense and that's never a good thing when you have to win by 3 possessions to cover the spread. Bottomline here is that Bill Snyder has had the entire offseason to prepare for this game. This should be a grind it out type of game for both squads and we'll take the generous points every time in those match-ups.

50* NFL PLAYOFFS TOTAL OF THE YEAR

Carolina Panthers vs. Denver Broncos OVER 45

This is definitely a contrarian play to say the least and I believe this total is too low. We all know the stories of these two defenses, but this Panther's offense is the best in the NFL. When looking at the previous Super Bowls, the numbers are eye-popping for the over. In last 40 Super Bowls, the over has cashed 24 times. What's most intriguing is the number for this posted total. This is tied for the 6th lowest total for the last 25 Super Bowls. You know what happened to 5 of those 6? You guessed it. They all FLEW over. The only one that didn't go over the total missed by 1 lowsy point and Buffalo Bills fans know that if Scott Norwood connects, we're saying a perfect 6 for 6 on this write up. 

The last 3 years the Super Bowl has gone over the total and the reason I am bringing this up is because those games all featured at least one amazing defense, if not two. Seattle was in back to back Super Bowls with their Legion of Boom and Super Bowl 47 between the 49ers and Ravens is eerily similar to this one. Both teams were known for their defenses and most suspected a low scoring game. That game turned out to be the highest scoring Super Bowl of the decade and almost was more points as the Ravens came up with a goal line stand at the end to seal the deal.

As for the game breakdown, the Carolina Panthers have scored less than 20 points just once this year and that was a Week 16 loss to the Falcons. They have also scored over 33 points in 7 of their last 9, and they have managed over 27 in 15 of their last 16 games. Needless to say, that's one hell of an offense. Almost every single trend for the Panthers have them going over the total. Some key ones: The Panthers are 6-0 to the over after a 14+ point win, have gone over the total in 4 straight playoff games, and 20 of their last 28 games have eclipsed the number facing a team with a winning record.

The Super Bowl typically starts out lower scoring as teams do play more conservatively and try not to make mistakes. But as the game goes on, the pace becomes frantic and teams don't hold anything back. They take more shots, try trick plays, and go all out knowing this is the final game of the season and there is no tomorrow. I like to breakdown the total when it's between 42-45 like this...As long as each team can score 3 touchdowns, we're good, because if the score is 21-21 there has to be another score (most likely, at least a field goal) and therefore, will cash the ticket for us. 

PROPS: CHECK BACK HERE. Will be adding props throughout the week.

Multiple props to come when they become more widely available...

Going to take almost every Demaryius Thomas prop UNDER. So far I see his total yardage at 67.5 and his total receptions at 5.5. Love the total receptions under. I expect Norman to completely take him out of the game. Thomas is also prone to the dropped ball early on.

40* Ronnie Hillman UNDER 11.5 rushing attempts.

Von Miller OVER 3 tackles (solo + assisted)

40* One of our TOP PLAY props with the be 2nd half + OT to outscore the 1st half.

As explained a bit earlier, teams do play conservatively to start the game and open it up more later on. In the past 49 Super Bowls, 30 of them have had a higher scoring 2nd half than 1st which includes 13 of the last 17. It almost cashed last year but it came up a yard short and we all know how that ended. 

Here are the totals for the Super Bowls since Y2K:

2015 1st half: 28 pts / 2nd half - 24 pts - LOSS

2014 1st half: 22 pts / 2nd half - 29 pts - WIN

2013 1st half: 27 pts / 2nd half - 38 pts - WIN

2012 1st half: 19 pts / 2nd half - 19 pts - Push

2011 1st half: 31 pts / 2nd half - 25 pts - LOSS

2010 1st half: 16 pts / 2nd half - 32 pts - WIN

2009 1st half: 24 pts / 2nd half - 26 pts - WIN

2008 1st half: 10 pts / 2nd half - 21 pts - WIN

2007 1st half: 30 pts / 2nd half - 16 pts - LOSS

2006 1st half: 10 pts / 2nd half - 21 pts - WIN

2005 1st half - 14 pts / 2nd half - 31 pts - WIN

2004 1st half - 24 pts / 2nd half - 37 pts - WIN

2003 1st half - 23 pts / 2nd half - 46 pts - WIN

2002 1st half - 17 pts / 2nd half - 20 pts - WIN

2001 1st half - 10 pts / 2nd half - 31 pts - WIN

2000 1st half - 9 pts / 2nd half - 30 pts - WIN

These next few props piggy back off our total and 2nd half play.

-3rd quarter outscore 1st quarter

-1st quarter UNDER 9.5

-Score in the first 6 minutes of the game? NO

I know it seems strange that we are taking these unders to start the game, when we have the over. A: This is typical for the Super Bowl to play out that way and B: It also allows as protection because if these plays lose, it's very likely the game is going over. However, I still really like our chances to win both. 

Below are PROPS that will be played for 5* unless noted. I recommend to shop around this week and try to find the best outs/numbers for these plays. More could be added/dropped throughout this week. Most props will be played for 5* or 0.5%. 10*=1%

Peyton Manning for MVP. This prop is basically a small bet on the Denver Broncos. Denver to win outright is currently +200. Taking Manning to win MVP is +400. If Denver wins the Super Bowl, I believe the NFL will do whatever it can to give Manning the MVP trophy for his last rodeo.

shortest FG under 26.5 yards......Cam Newton throws INT........Denver to +7.5 (alternate line)........score in the final 2:30 minutes of the half YES..........cam over 39.5 rushing yards.......shortest td of game under 1.5........greg olsen more yards better than demaryius thomas........10* peyton over 21.5 completions.........peyton under 39.5 attempts.........peyton under 34.5 longest completion........10* peyton manning over 1 td.......sanders over 5 receptions.......sanders over 69.5 yards.......10*norwood over 17.5 yards total…..10*norwood longest reception over 12.5......owen daniels over 2.5 receptions......denver to punt first.......denver first timeout......panthers punt first before scoring a td......10*Kuechly over 8.5 tackles....10*Thomas Davis over 5.5 tackles

50* NFL MAX BET

New England Patriots ML -160

I'll start with this...The New England Patriots will be Super Bowl 50 Champions. At the beginning of the season we had our 70* BIGGEST PLAY OF THE SEASON on the New England Patriots season win total OVER 10 wins. They were also our pick to win the Super Bowl and we're sticking to it. Most of the reasoning behind this was the "Deflategate" controversy. The Patriots played with a gigantic chip on their shoulders and they had a ton of motivation to win it again. But back to why you are here and that's the game breakdown.

New England has revenge from their loss earlier in the season at Denver. This is big for New England as now they can prepare from recent film/strategies on this team. It's no secret that the Patriots have the best coach in the league and arguably one of, if not, the best of all time. He is outstanding at making adjustments and taking away what you do best. Another huge factor in their last game was injuries. Edelman and Amendola were out and Gronkowski left during the game. We have seen what that can do to the Patriots offense. Well, they're all healthy coming into this game. 

I expect New England to make Manning beat them. Denver is clearly a run first team and they rely heavily on their defense. Peyton simply can't make the throws like he used to. Peyton was the worst QB in the league, statistically, prior to his injury earlier in the year. Watching the Bronco's AFC Divisional game against the Steelers, there were clear holes in the secondary for the Bronco's D. Big Ben was burning them for big plays on blown zone assignments. The Patriots should be able to eat them alive if they continue to make mistakes. 

Bottomline is that Brady and Belichick are the masters of the playoffs and Peyton Manning is the choke artist of the post-season. We have seen it year after year. Going to take the points out of the equation and just ask the best team of the generation to stamp their ticket to yet another Super Bowl.

Side notes: Found some numbers I just had to share with you guys. With Edelman in the lineup this season, the New England Patriots are 10-0 winning by over 2 touchdowns a game. Also, Tom Brady has more touchdowns (3) this season in Denver than Peyton Manning does (2) in Denver this year. That is mind-blowing. Another big factor here is the injury to Chris Harris. He's playing practically with one arm and you must challenge these New England wide outs at the line of scrimmage or you are doomed. It's going to be tough for Denver to adjust to this extremely high paced offense of the Patriots if they start getting on a roll.

50* NFL TOTAL MAX BET

Seattle Seahawks vs. Carolina Panthers OVER 44

Everyone knows about the great defenses of these two teams but what most don't talk about are their terrific offenses. These teams can put up points in bunches. This is definitely a contrarian play to say the least and I believe this total is too low. 

The Carolina Panthers have scored less than 20 points just once this year and that was a Week 16 loss to the Falcons. They have also scored over 33 points in 6 of their last 7, and they have managed over 27 in 13 of their last 14 games. Needless to say, that's one hell of an offense. Almost every single trend for the Panthers have them going over the total. Some key ones: The Panthers have gone over the total in 5 straight after allowing less than 15 points and they are 5-0 to the over after a 14+ point win. 

As for the Seattle Seahawks, they have really turned it on towards the end of the season on the offensive side of the ball. They have scored over 29 points in 7 of their last 8 games. Their last game against Minnesota was extremely low scoring but that was clearly due to the weather but I believe it has given us great value here. The Seahawks are 4-1 to the over after scoring 15 or less points the previous game and have gone over the total in 8 of their last 11 games facing a team with a winning record. 

I expect both teams to be able to put 3 touchdowns a piece in this game. That would leave us with a 21-21 game. Obviously the game can't end in a tie, so with one more score, we cash this ticket.

BONUS NFL PLAY: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Denver Broncos UNDER 20.5 1st HALF

50* NFL PLAYOFFS GAME OF THE YEAR

New England Patriots -4.5

The headline of this game is that the Chiefs are hot and the Patriots are cold. KC has won 11 straight games now and New England has lost 2 straight. I do agree that the Chiefs have been playing well but they haven't played any competition. Just look at the Wild-Card game against the Texans. The final score was very misleading. This game was only 13-0 going in the 4th quarter and the lone TD was the opening kickoff return for a touchdown. If Bryan Hoyer wasn't a complete and utter failure that game could have been a lot closer. Alex Smith missed a few throws and two were huge. One was a walk in TD from deep and another was an INT right after Hoyer threw one. What do you think he'll do against the New England Patriots? I will admit however, we we're on the Chiefs in that game so we were happy with the outcome but I knew we were going to fade them if they drew New England this week.

Do you remember the last time these two teams met? Well if you don't, The Chiefs beat the living crap out of them on primetime at Arrowhead. All the talking heads said "BENCH BRADY and this is the end of the New England Patriots!" Look what they did after that. They won the Super Bowl! This team knows how to get motivated and they have the best coach in the business. New England simply does not lose 3 games in a row. Getting the extra week off was huge for this team as they needed to get healthy with some much needed rest. Hightower, Edelman, and Vollmer are back for this game and that his huge, especially LT Vollmer and Edelman, to drastically help Tom Brady and this offense. What Belichick does is he takes away what you do best. This is where the injury of Maclin will hurt dramatically. It is not certain that he will play, but even if he does, he will not be close to 100%. Reid has confirmed that he will be out of practice for the week but will still play even if he can't practice. Let me say that again, not practice the week you play the Patriots. There all also other key Chiefs sitting out of practice (Houston, Hali, Morse, and Duvernay-Tardif.)

Bottomline here is that the Patriots are the playoff experts and the Chiefs have been awful in the post-season. KC finally got the monkey off their backs with their first playoff win since forever but now are only 1-6 ATS their last 7 playoff games. Kansas City could be in for a bit of a letdown here.   The New England Patriots are just flat out unstoppable at Gillette Stadium and I fully expect them to advance to the Conference Championship.

50* NCAA Championship MAX BET

Alabama vs. Clemson UNDER 52.5

Well we cashed our Bowl TOTAL OF THE YEAR with this Alabama defense and their offensive slow starts and we're going to continue to ride that trend here. I do recommend betting some of this wager on the 1st quarter and 1st half under as well. Looking closer at Alabama games, their games tend to start off very slowly with a heavy dose of Henry and terrific defense. Just look at the box scores of these games. Multiple games have 0 total points in the 1st quarter and less than 20 in the 1st half. Big games typically go under. Coaches are very conservative early, especially when you have a mediocre QB like Coker, on the big stage. We all know this Alabama defense is amazing but this Clemson defense is pretty darn good too. Look at what the Tigers did to Oklahoma. They completely shut down that great rushing attack of Perine and the Sooners. I do recommend to try and get this game at least 52 with that being a very key number but lower than that, I would bet more on the 1st quarter and 1st half.

50* NFL MAX BET

Washington Redskins -105

This line is pick em solely due to public perception. If you look closer, surprisingly the Washington Redskins are the better team. They come into this game as winners of 4 straight and 5 of their last 6. Kirk Cousins has been the MOST accurate passer in the history of the NFL at home this season. Let me give you that one more time. The MOST accurate EVER!

In this game today, you would think Aaron Rodgers is the better QB. Just on talent alone..he is, but with his teammates Kirk is the better QB and I'll tell you why. Aaron is the most sacked QB during the last half of the season and he has NO ONE to throw it too. His WRs and TEs are just way too slow. Kirk has much better weapons around him and his O line has been outstanding. The key here today is the Redskins secondary. If they come to play, this defensive line should have a field day against this banged up Packers club. 

The Packers limped into the postseason and the Redskins rolled into the playoffs. Momentum is real guys, look what the Chiefs did yesterday. YOU LIKE THAT? Skins!!

50* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals UNDER 47

The eye test tells us that Pittsburgh has an amazing offense and Cincy has a great defense. When looking closer at the Steelers, this will be their 3rd straight road games in as many weeks. Also, in their last 2 games, their offense has not looked impressive. In fact, the total combined score for both of those games were 40 and below. The Steelers have gone under the total in 7 of their last 9 road games. This is a very tough spot for Pittsburgh. 

We all know of Cincinnati's struggles in the postseason. Now with Dalton out, McCarron helps our case even more for the under. I see a very conservative game plan for Cincy. Almost just like Alabama in a way. Pound the rock and play great defense in a field position type game. The Bengals have gone under the total in 5 of their last 6 and is 4-1 their last 5 home games. 

A big key here is the fact that these two clubs are divisional opponents and that this will be the 3rd meetings this year between these two. This is definitely an advantage of the defenses. These teams know each other very well and they will know one another's next move. As the case with most unders, as long as we don't have bad turnovers giving the opponents short fields, this should be a low scoring defensive struggle.

40*

Kansas City Chiefs -3

Getting this one out now before it goes to -3.5 or higher

A money-line parlay with the Seattle Seahawks could be a solid option as well for 1% or 2%.

Yes, this is a very square play but I don't care. I just simply can't make a case for the Texans. The KC Chiefs are on fire, winners of 10 in a row. What's even more impressive is that they won all 4 of their road games and scored a ton of points during that span. The level of competition these two teams have played is a telling sign also. KC took out Pittsburgh, Denver, and Oakland twice. The Texans played in a complete joke of a division and beat up on bottom feeders. They did, however, beat 2 teams with winning records but TJ Yates was the QB. 

Bottomline here is that the Chiefs have one of the best defenses in the league and the Texans have a very mediocre offense. All this talk about the Texans defensive front but the Chiefs are in the top 5 in the NFL in sacks. The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS their last 5 games in Houston and I expect them extend that streak to 5-1 here.

50* One & Only AFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR

New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins UNDER 47

A lot of this play is a fade of Miami and their offense. They have not been able to get it going, especially when they play New England. The Dolphins have scored 20 or less (20, 20, 17, 13, 7, 0) in the last 6 games facing New England. Miami has also struggled their last 9 games offensively and they were playing some terrible defenses. They have scored above 20 points only once and are averaging just above 15 points per game. 

We know New England needs this game to claim HFA but they are ravaged with injuries. Their RB's, WR's, and O-Line are a mess right now. I expect the Patriots to try and just grind out a win here with solid defense and try to make sure no one gets hurt and be healthy for the post-season. 

50* New Year's Day MAX BET

Michigan -4

I'll make this one short and sweet. Michigan comes off a extremely embarrassing loss to their arch-rivals. They've had a very long time to think about that and I think they come out extra motivated to prove their worth. You know John Harbaugh will have these kids ready. I'm sure he wants to win his first bowl game for Big Blue BADLY! 

The Wolverines are just a much better team than Florida. They do both have great defenses but man, that Florida offense is just pathetic. It seems that if the Gators give up more than 14-17 points, they're toast. Hard not to see Michigan pulling away from this team in the 2nd half after the Florida defense gets tired legs.

50* One & Only BOWL TOTAL OF THE YEAR

Michigan State vs. Alabama UNDER 47

Personally playing the 1st HALF UNDER for 3% and the whole game for 2%

The 1st half under is definitely the better play here. The system does not allow for us to release 1st half plays so we'll do it like this. However, we did cash our SEC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on a Bama full game UNDER so we'll let it ride with the Tide again.

These teams are almost mirror images of each other. Play conservative, possession type football and rely on the stout defense. Both teams can really run the rock so this should let the clock continue to move. The key here is that this is a HUGE game, so I don't see these coaches "opening" up the playbook and taking shots early on, especially with Coker. They don't want these QBs to make a costly turnover. I expect a field position type game here.

Looking closer at Alabama games, their games tend to start off very slowly with a heavy dose of Henry and terrific defense. Just look at the box scores of these games. Multiple games have 0 total points in the 1st quarter and less than 20 in the 1st half. 

As the case with most unders, as long as there aren't turnovers that lead to short fields, this game should be a low scoring defensive struggle.

50* One & Only BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR

Houston +7

Personally, I think Houston can win this game outright. A huge factor in handicapping Bowl games is motivation. You almost always want to back the team that is happy to be in a particular bowl that exceed expectations rather than a team that had higher aspirations that couldn't care less about a meaningless bowl. That's what we have here. Florida State wanted to be in the playoff not the Chick-Fil-A bowl. Everett Golson is also ruled out for this game and I expect a lot of FSU players to be tuned "out" also. 

Just look at the stats between these two clubs. Houston feast off turnovers and they lead the nation in margin. They no doubt will cause a few in this one, especially with the back up QB. Most know that FSU has a solid defense but what most don't is that Houston has a great one as well. They are right behind in defensive rankings. A HUGE stat for these teams is the all important 3rd down. The Cougars convert over half of their 3rd downs but the Seminoles covert just over a third of theirs. 

Bottomline here is that one team struggles in games played at a neutral site as the other excels. Houston has covered 6 of their last 8 as FSU hasn't covered in any of their last 5. Look for the Cougars to shock a lot of people here tonight.

40* NCAA TOP PLAY PARLAY

Southern California (USC) -3.5

50* NCAA TOP PLAY PARLAY

North Carolina (UNC) +3

I know this line is now at -3. We released this one early but it's still a great play up to -3. I liked UNC to win by more than an FG anyway when the line was at +3. 

This one is pretty simple for me. Baylor is ravaged with injuries and they are deflated. Their defense is not very good and I don't see them being highly motivated for this match up as they had National Championship aspirations. Bowl games are about motivation and we have a Tar Heel team that should be highly motivated after being robbed against Clemson. UNC has covered 4 straight after a spread loss and Baylor has covered just one game in their last 6. The Tar Heels are very good at on both sides of the ball with the "big play" and that should be the key for a UNC victory here.

50* NCAA TOTAL MAX BET

Air Force vs. California OVER 67.5

50* NFL VEGAS INSIDER OF THE YEAR

New York Jets +3.5

Everyone and their mother is going to line up to bet the New England Patriots to basically just win the game. Already 70% of the tickets are on the Pats but this line could drop below the key number of 3. New England has a first round bye locked up and are ravaged with injuries. The Jets are in the playoff hunt right now and they need this game like blood. We already know both these teams don't like each other but what most people don't realize is that New York has covered the number in 5 straight meetings between these two. New England also hasn't covered the spread in 5 straight games facing a team with a winning record. All of my sources LOVE the Jets here and all of them are expecting an outright Jet victory.

40* NCAA VEGAS INSIDER

Indiana -2.5

40* NCAA-F TOP PLAY TOTAL

Miami vs. Washington State OVER 62

40* COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Akron vs. Utah State UNDER 48

50* MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL TOTAL OF THE YEAR

Detroit Lions vs. New Orleans Saints OVER 51

Both teams are now eliminated from the playoffs. Usually when that happens late in the year, games become shootouts. When teams don't have much to play for, the defense usually takes the intensity down a notch and the teams put on a show. We have even a better spot for this tonight as the Saints have a terrible defense already and they have extremely high scoring games at the Superdome. Just look at the last few games there. 79, 62, 101, and 52. This should be back and forth tonight and with under the key number of 52 (7 TDs and a FG) this makes this the strongest total for Monday Night Football this year.

40* TOP PLAY PARLAY PACK

Cincinnati Bengals -4.5

I'll make this one short and sweet. This line is a total overreaction to the injury to Andy Dalton. He's not as big a factor to the offense as let's say, Aaron Rodgers. AJ McCarron has a ton of weapons around him and they have great success running the ball which will take a lot of pressure off him. The Bengals defense is why this team is successful. Look at what Johnny Manziel did to this 49ers defense and look what the 49ers did to the Browns defense. Exactly. As long as Aj protects the ball today, Bengals blowout.

40* TOP PLAY PARLAY PACK

Green Bay Packers -3

For all intents and purposes, this is a bigger game for the Packers. They still have a shot for a first round bye if they can get passed the Raiders here and defeat Arizona next week. But a loss here could really hurt their chances for the division crown. It looks like Green Bay has turned a corner with Mike back calling the plays. They are really focusing on the run and it they torched the Cowboy defense and that Cowboy D is for real. 

Oakland comes off a huge win to the rival Broncos and they have another division game on deck Thursday Night against the Chargers. This is a tough spot for Da Raiders. If Green Bay plays up to their potential, this should be a blowout.

50* NFL VEGAS INSIDER

New York Giants +5.5

This is the definition of a "pros" vs. "joes" game. Everyone is going to back the undefeated Panthers here and the short number. In fact 2 out of every 3 tickets are on them. But the line has dropped nearly 3 points since the opener. ALL of my sources are on the Gmen here. We have seen it over and over again, this Giants team can be anyone. When they are rolling, no one and I mean no one can stop them. They surely have the talent to take out this team and have the benefit of playing at home. Would not be shocked one bit to see the Giants hand Carolina their first loss of the season.

40*

Ohio vs. Appalachian State OVER 54

40* or 50*...Checking a few things first

New Mexico +10

40* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK

San Francisco 49ers vs. Cleveland Browns OVER 41

An old adage in the NFL is when a team from the NFC plays a team from the AFC, the game goes over. The teams aren't familiar with each other and it makes it tough for the defense (it's already tough for the defense in this day anyway) to stop the opposing offense. Another one is two teams that don't have much to play for late in the season usually light up the scoreboards. Just look at last week with Tennessee and Jacksonville. 

Blaine Gabbert has been playing very well the last few games and he's gone up against some solid defenses also. He threw for 264 and a TD against Seattle, 318 and a TD against Arizona, and had a fantastic game against the Bears. He also is very mobile and should be able to run against one of the worst rush defenses in the League.

The trends for this game are eye popping as well. San Fransisco has gone over the total is 5 of their last 6 on the road and is 7-1 their last 8 facing a team with a losing record. For the Browns, their games have gone over the total in 5 of their last 6 home games. A key trend for Cleveland is that they have gone over the total in 4 of their last 5 games when scoring less than 15 points their previous game. This shows that they make solid offensive adjustments after a poor performance. Look for both teams to play an exhibition type of game here that is free and easy, going back and forth.

50* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH

Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 50.5

Where do we even start with this one? Both teams can put up points quickly and both defenses are just terrible. Watching Pittsburgh light up Seattle was impressive. When Big Ben is under center, this may be the best offense in the league. They have exceptional playmakers and ridiculous speed from the skill positions. Anyone at anytime can score. Pittsburgh should have won that game (or at least covered,) but the Steeler defense isn't the Steeler defense we know. I don't know if I have seen a worse 3rd down defense. It's mainly impart that their pass defense is ranked 30th.

Indianapolis has been just fine on offense with Hasselbeck. He is clearly capable of scoring points on the Pittsburgh defense. Good news for us over bettors is that Indy is one of the best teams converting 3rd downs. So we have a solid 3rd down offense against a horrible 3rd down defense. The problem with Indy is their defense as well. They have trouble defending the pass also. They rank just 27th in the NFL.

Bottomline here is that both teams should have tremendous success through the air in this one. We have two pass heavy teams that play quickly. The over has cashed in 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two in Pittsburgh. A high scoring shootout should be in the works tonight. 

50* NCAA GAME OF THE MONTH

Michigan State Spartans -138

This line is a total disrespect to the Spartans. Although Iowa is undefeated and Michigan State is 11-1, Sparty is the much better team. They clearly have the better talent (recruits), much better coach, and they have been battle tested. Iowa's schedule was a complete cake walk and the teams that they did play that were any good, they barely escaped (besides Northwestern.) 

The Spartans should be undefeated. They got absolutely robbed in the Nebraska game in the final seconds on a clear illegal touching violation. MSU has now covered the spread in 6 straight games played on a neutral site and are 5-1 ATS their last 6 in Big 10 play. It seems in recent years MSU always gets undervalued in big games and they always prevail. Just look at the Ohio State game. They were 14 point underdogs, on the road I might add, and beat them outright. This team is the real deal and they are playing an inferior opponent tonight. Look for Sparty to roll.

50*

Cleveland Browns -3

50* One & Only NFL UNDERDOG OF THE YEAR

Pittsburgh Steelers +4

Right off the bat, the Steelers are the better team. They also have the huge advantage playing this game off the bye week. The Steelers are healthy and most importantly, Big Ben will be ready. This team has one of, if not, the best offenses in the entire league. At any time, they can explode for a huge play with exceptional speed at the key positions. 

The Seahawks are not the same Seahawks we are used to. Their wins have come against weak competition. They beat the Lions, 49ers (twice), Bears (no Cutler), Cowboys (no Romo). I expect them to have some serious problems facing these Steelers. A team that is similar to the Steelers is the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals have speed, a great passing offense, and a solid defense. Look what Arizona did to Seattle and let's not forget, Pittsburgh beat these Cardinals with LANDRY JONES! No Marshawn today which is going to hurt this already anemic offense for Seattle. 

Added trends: Seattle is 0-6-1 ATS following a straight up win and they are 0-5-1 ATS facing a team with a winning record. They are also 2-5 ATS their last 7 home games and the Steelers are 5-1 ATS their last 6 road games.

50* NCAA TOTAL OF THE MONTH

Colorado State vs. Fresno State OVER 59

40*

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Arizona Cardinals OVER 48

50* One & Only NCAA UNDERDOG OF THE YEAR

Vanderbilt +7

Everything points to the Commodores here. Current play, the situation, stats, trends, public perception, you name it. Texas A&M should not be laying a TD to anyone in the SEC, especially on the road. To make matters worse for A&M, they have LSU on deck so obvious lookahead here. Vanderbilt has a ferocious defense and they proved it against the Gators. This is their last home game of the season so no doubt they'll be up for this one.

This is only the Aggies third road game of the season, so they are not battle tested, and they have not looked great at all as the visiting team. After the Alabama game, this team has gone right into the toilet. Texas A&M has lost 5 straight games against the spread and are a miserable 5-16 ATS their last 21 games against the SEC. No doubt this team has their line's inflated constantly.

Vanderbilt is the opposite. They have been outstanding ATS in the SEC. They have covered 6 of their last 7 and have won 5 of their last 6 home games against the number. It's very tough to score on this Vandy defense and when points are at a premium, it's almost a given to take the points with the HOME and better defensive team. Getting a touchdown here is a gift and I wouldn't be surprised to see this game go down to the wire with Vandy having a great chance at the outright.

50* NCAA VEGAS INSIDER

Arkansas -3.5

The Arkansas Razorbacks are on fire right now and I don't think anyone wants to face off against them. They are 5-1 ATS their last 6 games and are an undefeated 5-0 against the SEC. They get to play Mississippi State in a very advantageous situation. The Bulldogs come off getting destroyed by Alabama. Teams typically don't respond well after the Tide beatdown. They put everything they got into a game like that and if you get crushed, a let down is inevitable. Mississippi State has been awful covering the number recently after getting beat down. The Bulldogs are just 3-8 their last 11 games after losing by 20+ points and are 1-6 following a 10+ point loss at home. Look for the Razorbacks to continue to cruise Saturday. 

50* NFL SNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR

Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks UNDER 45

Let's start with this. The under has cashed 6 of the last 7 meetings between these two in Seattle. These teams play low scoring defensive battles between each other. 7 of the last 10 times they have played, they have scored less than 45. 

We all know Seattle has a fantastic defense. They are in the top 3 in almost all defensive categories. The problem with the Seahawks is that they struggle on offense. They are playing a Cardinals D that ranks 3rd in total defense and 7th in scoring defense. This sets up perfectly for a low scoring, defensive struggle.

Bottomline here is that we have two terrific defenses and two divisional opponents that know each other well. The way the 12th man roars in Seattle and given this is a primetime game, it should be very hard for Arizona to get into an offensive rhythm tonight. 

50* NCAA UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH

Washington State +10.5

50* NCAA THURSDAY NIGHT TOTAL OF THE YEAR

Virginia Tech vs. Georgia Tech UNDER 53.5

When I saw this total, my eyes nearly popped out of my head. I could not believe a game between these two teams was lined in the 50's, let alone 53.5. The Hokies and Yellow Jackets are no strangers. They know everything there is to know about each other. What does this mean? It means that it's going to be very difficult to score.

We all know Georgia Tech runs the triple option. It gives teams fits that haven't seen it before because they struggle on defensive assignments and containing. The problem is for the Yellow Jackets is that VA Tech knows how to stop the furious rushing attack. To add even more problems to Georgia Tech is that the Hokies come off a bye week. This gives them extra time to prepare and good news for under bettors is that VA Tech has gone under in 5 straight games off the bye and are 18-3 to the under their last 21 Thursday Night games.

Bottomline here is that these two teams know how to stop each other. The under has cashed in 7 of the last 8 meetings and they have scored less than this number (53.5) combined in those 7 games also. Points should be at a premium here and, as the case with most unders, as long as each team doesn't turn the ball over deep in their own territory, this game goes under with ease.

50* NFL UPSET OF THE YEAR

Miami Dolphins +135

No doubt Miami wants to dish out a little pay back in this one as the Bills blew them out back in Week 2. Yes, we were on Buffalo in that game, but this is a great spot for the Fins to get some revenge. The Dolphins were embarrassed by New England in their last game, Thursday Night, so we basically have two things going for us. The public's last impression of the Dolphins is that they are horrible since they got to see them on National TV and two; Miami is going to want to get the bad taste out of their mouths with the week and a half to prepare. It's usually a great bet to back teams after the bye/Thursday games off a loss. The Dolphins have covered 19 of their last 23 games on the road as a dog of less than 6 points.

Buffalo is just way too inconsistent. They make way too many mistakes and commit a TON of penalties. There are coaches that relish the bye week and their team performs very well the next game and there are coaches that just plain suck the game after the bye and probably go on vacation and forget to prepare. Rex Ryan is the latter. He has covered just once in his last 6 games coming off the bye.

Bottomline is that I believe the wrong team is favored here and the Dolphins are a totally new ball club under the new regime. Look for the Dolphins to pick up the solid road win. 

40* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Oakland Raiders vs. Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 48.5

Also have a small lean to the Steelers.

Almost all the trends there are, especially for the Raiders, has this game flying over. Both teams love airing the ball out and they have had great success doing it. The Steeler secondary is a bit suspect and Carr should be able to put up a fair share of points. We all know how great the Steeler's offense is with Big Ben under center. He has one of the best WR corps in football. I expect them to throw the ball even more this game now with the absence of Bell in the backfield. This should be a rocking chair type game.

50* SEC TOTAL OF THE YEAR

Louisiana State (LSU) vs. Alabama UNDER 48

Get to this one ASAP as this line is steadily dropping. It opened at 52 and I expect it to go even lower than the 48 we have now.

There are two things both LSU and Alabama do well. That's running the football and playing stout defense. Both teams are also exceptional not allowing big plays (20 yards or more.) This means that if these two teams do manage to score, it will take a lot of time off the clock.

For Alabama, they have to depend on their rushing game heavily because their QB situation is borderline pathetic. Also, the Bama defense is outstanding and they always keep them in game. LSU's defense has been fantastic this season as well. They have had just one drive of 80+ yards in all of their games. That's right, ONE!

When looking at this number, this total is pretty high for this meeting of LSU/Alabama. These two teams have managed to score more than 48 points just once in the last 8 games between each other. In fact, the under has cashed in 5 of the last 6 meetings. This is a terrific spot for the Bayou Bengals, for a lower scoring game, as the under is 7-1 their last 8 games coming off the bye. The same goes for the Tide as the under has cashed in 12 of their last 15 home games facing a team with a winning record. I do realize that the over is 6-0 the last 6 games for LSU, but I believe this has given us great value here since the oddsmakers had to over adjust this number accordingly.

Bottomline here is that his is a huge game for these two squads. We have two teams that play outstanding defense, and run the ball furiously which should take a lot of time off the clock and lead to a shorter game. Points should be tough to come by in this one and as long as both teams protect the ball and don't give the other team short fields to work with, this game goes under with ease.

40* VEGAS INSIDER

Washington Huskies -130

I'll start with this. The Utah Utes have lost 8 straight to the Huskies. Also, this line is very telling on who is the better team in this one. The oddsmaker's made Washington the favorite for a reason. Utah is ranked 12th and is playing an unranked team in the Huskies and are the dogs. Remember the last time this happened for the Utes this season? They were ranked #3 in the country, on the road, to Southern Cal and they got pummeled. Public perception is way off on the Utes this season. Nearly 4 of every 5 tickets are bet on Utah, yet the line has gone up to -2. We'll follow the big money here and take the home team in this one.

50* SNF GAME OF THE MONTH

Green Bay Packers -134

I can't believe that I'm saying this but Peyton Manning is one of the worst Quarterbacks in the league. Manning can no longer air it out and move the ball down the field like he used to. He also has the most interceptions in the league right now. The Broncos are 6-0 but they have escaped in basically every game against mediocre QBs. Their defense is the only reason they stay in ball games but now they face the best QB in the game in Aaron Rodgers.

Most don't realize this but the Packers have a great defense also. They should be able stop this running game of Denver since they have a susceptible offensive line. We do know that Denver's defense is outstanding but when it comes down to a battle of the men under center. Manning simply can't keep up with Rodgers and eventually Rodgers will do enough to pull away with the victory in the 2nd half.

50* One & Only THE NCAA GAME OF THE YEAR

Florida -150

My least favorite coach in all of College Football is Mark Richt. Georgia always gets a ton of hype year in and year out and he ALWAYS chokes in big games. This, of course, is a big game. Florida has a chance to wrap up the SEC East with a victory here. Asking Florida just to win here is a no brainer for me. 

Georgia has played just one ranked team this year in Alabama and they got smoked. Just look at their last game. They played one of the worst offense's in the country right now, Missouri Tigers (who haven't scored a TD in 40 offensive drives, I might add) and barely won, 9-6. Yes, Missouri has a great D, but Florida managed a great offensive game against them. We all know Florida's defense is great, but their offense has been tearing it up lately. They pushed LSU to the limit, in Baton Rouge, where it's extremely tough to play.

Basically every stat there is, Florida is better than Georgia. They are better on 3rd down, lead in turnover ratio, and just overall have a much better offense and defense. They laid almost 40 on Ole Miss and 28 on LSU and Tennessee. 

Going back to past seasons, Georgia has always been awful late in the year and Florida has been solid. The Bulldogs have covered just 2 games in their last 9 and they have been even worse off the bye week. They are just 1-5 ATS, coming off the bye. Yes, Florida has been down the last few seasons but they have been excellent covering off the bye week. The Gators are 5-1 ATS in that spot.

Bottomline here is that we have the much better team in every facet of the game, better coach, and the hotter team with much more to play for trying to clinch their division. We'll take the points out of the equation here and just ask Florida to win for our 2015 One & Only College Football Game of the Year. Best of luck to us and remember to use proper money management. After all, this is just one game, but I love our chances in this one.

40* NCAA VEGAS INSIDER

North Carolina (UNC) -3

This line is very telling on who should win this game. Pittsburgh, who is ranked 23rd in the country, not only is a dog, but they are a HOME underdog. That means on a neutral field, UNC would be a touchdown favorite. This line also opened at -1.5 and jumped quickly to -3 with over 60% of the bets be written on Pitt. All three of of my closest sources all love the Tar Heels here and for good reason. The Tar Heels have covered 4 of their last 5 games in Pittsburgh and have also covered 4 of their last 5 following a spread loss. Pittsburgh has covered just 1 of their last 6 home games. 

Will be a 40* or 50*

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Carolina Panthers UNDER 46

40* NFL VEGAS INSIDER

St. Louis Rams -5.5

50* NFL UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH

Houston Texas +5

This line is an overreaction to Miami's domination of Tennessee last week. A great spot to back teams is when a coach gets fired and their interim coach takes over for the first time. Emotions are high and teams step up their game big time. It happens all the time in every sport. But now it's time to snap back to reality. This is a flat spot for the Dolphins. They should not be laying more than 4 points at home, where they have been awful against the spread. The Dolphins have lost 5 straight ATS on their field. Miami is one of the worst teams defending the run and this should allow Arian Foster and the Texans to really open up their offensive playbook. With the current spread at 5, Miami basically has to win by a touchdown. That's a lot to ask out of a team that has a lot of pressure on them with their coach making his first home start to perform well in front of an eager crowd.

Side note: Let's not forget that Miami has the Super Bowl Champs, New England Patriots, on deck Thursday Night.

50* NCAA MAX BET

Florida Atlantic -6

I'll make this short and sweet. UTEP is AWFUL. Their defense is terrible, allowing 48 a game. They have not covered a spread in 8 games and are injured to the max. UTEP has zero home field advantage and if you look closer at this game, FAU (a team with a worse record) is 6 point ROAD chalk. They are also 17-4-1 ATS their last 22 games on the road. That tells me all I need to know. FAU has a ton of speed and should run UTEP off the field.

40*

Missouri -2.5

40* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH

Wake Forest +10

NC State does not deserve to be a double digit favorite to anyone in the ACC. To make matters worse, they have huge game against Clemson on deck, so likely a lookahead spot here. The Demon Deacons have taken out the Wolfpack five straight times at home and they also have revenge from last year's beating on the road against NC State. Wake Forest matches up well against NC State and getting 10 points on the home team is a no brainer for me.

40*

Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian State UNDER 62

40* TOP PLAY TOTAL PARLAY

Temple vs. East Carolina OVER 50

50* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR

New England Patriots -7

Some books still have 7.5 and I recommend buying the hook to the key number of 7. 

I'll start with this. What game do you think New England had circled when the schedule game out? Yeah, this one. You know Brady and company want to EMBARRASS the team (Colts) that made their offseason a living hell. What makes it even better for New England? They get to do it on primetime in Indianapolis. The Patriots will not let their foot off the gas and their going to make an example out of Indy. 

Our 70* play to begin the season was Patriots OVER 10 wins. The reasoning behind it was because of the entire deflate gate scandal. They'll be playing with an enormous chip on their shoulders. Do you remember the last time they were called cheaters? It was during Spygate and they went on to go undefeated that regular season. 

The Colts have not looked all that special to start this season. They have zero defense and absolutely no offensive line. Belichick knows how to attack your weaknesses and take away what you do best. Just look what they have done in previous meetings. They always destroy the Colts. We had our One & Only NFL GAME OF THE YEAR last season in the AFC Championship on the Patriots and I expect a very similar result on Sunday Night Football.

40* NFL VEGAS INSIDER

Cleveland Browns +5

50* NCAA TOTAL OF THE MONTH

Penn State vs. Ohio State OVER 48.5

40*

Vanderbilt +3

40* NCAA BLOWOUT OF THE MONTH

Baylor -21

40* NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

Cincinnati Bengals -3

It's no secret. The Seattle Seahawks are not the same team on the road, without the 12th man. Seattle's defense has given up a ton of points on the road this season and their offense has been terrible. They managed only one touchdown against Detroit at home and just one offensive TD on the road against the joke Bears. Good luck trying to get points against a very solid defensive front of the Cincinnati Bengals.

The Bengals have been amazing at home this season and years prior. They continue to cover the number at home as the line-makers repeatedly undervalue this club. Cincinnati is 17-5-1 their last 23 home games and they have won against the spread in every game this season. Even though I'm not the biggest Andy Dalton fan, he has played like a man possessed to start the season and is much better than Wilson at the moment. Look for Cincinnati to stay undefeated on the season after this one.

50* NCAA SITUATIONAL GAME OF THE YEAR

Navy +14.5

This is the definition of a "sandwich" spot for the Fighting Irish. They come off a heartbreaking loss to ranked Clemson on the road and now have to play this game against Navy with their rivals, USC Trojans, on deck. 

It's usually a great bet to back triple option teams when they are getting a lot of points. They are constantly running and chewing a bunch of the clock up. It makes it harder for the opposing team to score in bunches with less time on the clock. This is Navy's game of the year and they have had fantastic success against Notre Dame. The Midshipmen have covered 9 of their last 10 games in Notre Dame and as a matter of fact, we had them last year heavy as they stayed inside the number.

Navy has been spread covering machines this season and I fully expect them to keep this one close throughout. Even if by some chance they go down 21 in the fourth quarter, the back door will be wide open as Notre Dame could pump the brakes, knowing they have a much more important game on deck. Look for Navy and the triple option to give ND all they can handle on Saturday.

40* NCAA TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Washington vs. Southern California (USC) UNDER 56

50* NFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR

St. Louis Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals OVER 42

40*

Kansas City Chiefs +4.5

40* NCAA UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK

Arizona State +13

40* MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL BEST BET

Kansas City Chiefs +7

I know this isn't a "true" bye week but it's really the next best thing. KC played Thursday night and now don't have to play until Monday night. Guess who is the best coach in the league off a bye...Yup, Andy Reid. He simply doesn't lose. Even better is that Reid has cashed 12 of his last 17 games when favored by a touchdown or more. Two of my closest sources are die hard Packers fans and they are expecting a Chiefs victory. Packers are riding high and could suffer a bit of a let down after their huge revenge win over the Seahawks last Sunday. Everyone is going to be all over the Packers in this one tonight. Going with the theme of the weekend as we made a killing betting dogs with another huge dog here tonight. Going to be honest here...only thing keeping this from being a 50* play is Aaron Rodgers. He's simply that good. But we can't ignore this spot and we'll gladly bet 4% on one hell of a situation.

50* NFL UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH

Buffalo Bills +130

You can go ahead and take the +3 if you'd like, for the safety net.

In my opinion, the Miami Dolphins are not a good team. I have watched both games that Miami has played so far this season and I have not been impressed one bit. This team could easily be 0-2. They barely beat the Redskins, as they were saved by a punt return and they lost to one of the worst teams in NFL history, the Jacksonville Jaguars. Ryan Tannehill continues to miss WIDE OPEN receivers and now there are rumors that Suh is doing whatever he wants on the field. Joe Philbin is going to be on his way out sooner rather than later and I wouldn't be surprised to hear the fans boo if the Dolphins start trailing in this game.

I have been very impressed with the Bills. This defense is ferocious and they showed me a lot by not just mailing it in against the Pats last week, after trailing by a bunch. The wrong team is favored in this game. Proof is that the Miami Dolphins have covered just 14 of their last 54 games when listed as the favorite. Let's take the points out of the equation and go for the big time pay day with the much better team on Sunday.

40* NFL VEGAS INSIDER

Oakland Raiders +4.5

Getting this one out now because I expect this line to take a nose dive

50* NCAA MAX BET

Kentucky -2.5

This game basically is a fade of Missouri. The Tigers just look dreadful on the offensive side of the ball. Matty Mauk is struggling mightily, their O-line stinks, and their wide receivers drop balls if somehow Mauk gets it there. I also like taking un-ranked teams that are favored against ranked opponents. A simple rule is that vegas rankings are much more important than the AP Poll. We successfully faded Missouri when they played Arkansas State, as that line looked fishy as hell and I think we have another winner here and getting this below a FG is a steal.

40*

Marshall vs. Kent State UNDER 49.5

40*

Bowling Green -3.5