40*

Minnesota Vikings +3.5

50*

Texas A&M -5.5

40*

New York Giants +3.5

This has the makings of the public burial of the day. The Saints and Brees are in a terrible spot. Not only are they playing back to back road games (where Brees has been a lot worse outdoors,) they're also coming off playing a 5 quarter game against their divisional arch-rival. They say that defense travels and this Saints defense is absolutely dreadful. To make matters worse, Robinson broke his leg and this secondary could be in for a long day. 

40*

Baltimore Ravens -5

I expect the Ravens to bounce back after their Thursday night loss to Cincy. I typical like backing teams that lose in primetime the previous week. The Ravens are in a great spot getting the extra few days to prepare, while the Broncos have to come to the east coast for a 1pm game for their first road game of the season. This team is extremely lucky to be 2-0 and as the looks of it, beat two really bad teams in the Seahawks and Raiders. The Broncos come into this game over valued and with the oddsmakers posting this line over 4 points tells me that the Ravens are clearly the right side here.

50*

Green Bay Packers -2.5

I know this is the square side but I have to back Aaron Rodgers here. The Redskins are a laughingstock. They don't have much talent and they have the worst home field advantage in the NFL. Being a Redskins fan, I watch this team closely and I don't see how Alex Smith, AKA Mr Check Down, can trade points with the MVP. Remember, Alex Smith was taken #1 Overall in the same draft as Rodgers, so you know he has a big time chip on his shoulder when playing him.

40*

Iowa +145

50* NFL DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE YEAR

Atlanta Falcons -5.5

This game has everything I look for in a Week 2 game in the NFL. We have a 1-0 team facing an 0-1 team and the Thursday night game loser playing on extra rest/preparation at home. If you watched that Falcons/Eagles game, you know that the Falcons were clearly the better team. I will say the weather and outdoors played a bit of a factor. Atlanta, like New Orleans, is a completely different animal playing in the dome. Carolina is also going to miss Olsen and the X-Factor for this game is the Hurricane. I believe the Panthers might not have full focus given the fact that their home town is in danger. 

40*

Florida -19.5

We were actually on Florida and Arkansas last week. We lost both bets as Florida laid a total egg and Colorado State scored 25 unanswered on their way to an epic comeback. This has given us tremendous value. We have a double digit favorite coming off an outright loss and a double digit dog coming off an outright win. Florida will be dying to get on the field to lay a beatdown against a team playing their first true road game of the season. 

40*

Boise State +110

This is Boise's game of the year. A win here and they have a great chance of running the table and punching their ticket to a Big Boy bowl game. This game just looks too easy to take Oklahoma State here. It's tough to win in Stillwater and having this game lined at nearly pick is fishy. Remember, the Cowboys lost their greatest passer ever in Mason Rudolph and their top 2 wideouts. 

40*

Auburn -10

Most would argue that you should take the points with such a low total. I believe this shows that Auburn is the clear right side. Auburn has serious revenge from last season as they dominated the game but let it slip through their fingers. Most will still remember the beat down LSU put on Miami thinking that they are better. Auburn has aruguably a Top 3 defensive line in the enitre nation. I'm expecting Auburn to do whatever they want tonight.

50* NFL MAX BET

Arizona Cardinals -1

I hate the move for Alex Smith by the Redskins. This is a major downgrade from Cousins and to make matters worse, they traded away one of their best DBs in the process. Sam Bradford will be behind center for Arizona and you won't confuse him for a Pro Bowler but he clearly can get the job done. We also have David Johnson back for the Cardinals and people are completely forgetting about him. This dude was absolutely tearing it up before he went down. The Redskins have failed to cover the spread in 5 straight season openers and this shows that they continue to be over valued coming into the season.

50* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH

Minnesota Vikings -6.5

I have the Minnesota Vikings rated as the best team in the NFL. This team has one of the best home field advantages in all of football. San Francisco comes into this season with a ton of hype. Everyone is jumping on the Jimmy G train and I don't think it's warranted. SF coming into the season last year was rated the WORST, #32! Now they get a QB and they're a Top 10 team according to some experts?! I don't think so. NFL teams now have an enitre offseason to prepare for him. What a way to start the season for the 49ers having to take on the NFL's best defense. The Vikings finally have a Top tier QB in Cousins and have a TON of weapons around him. This team is DEADLY.

50*

Miami-Ohio +1

50*

Colorado +150

40*

Middle Tennessee State +3

analysis will be posted after all picks are final.

BONUS FUTURES: Washington to win the National Championship + Win Pac-12.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

50*

Washington +2.5

analysis will be posted after all picks are final.

BONUS FUTURES: Washington to win the National Championship + Win Pac-12.

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40* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Tennessee Titans vs. New England Patriots OVER 48

You know what's been one hell of a bet in the playoffs? Taking the Patriots games over the total. The Patriots have gone over in 8 straight Divisional Round games and 7-1 in their last 8 playoffs game overall. Most of the talking heads have mentioned this by now but Tom Brady would EAT the Steelers alive because of their zone blitz scheme. Yes, I did say Steelers. The reason i mention this is becuase Dick LeBeau is the Defensive coordinator for the Titans now. 

Another great reason for this over play is that even though the Pats are 1st in the NFL in total yards and 2nd in points, their defense is quite the opposite. Yes, their defense is ranked 5th in scoring but they give up a TON of yards. they are 29th in the NFL and 30th through the air. There will definitely be opportunities for the Titans to score tonight.

50* College Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR

Louisiana State (LSU) -3

Everything points to the Bayou Bengals. Where do I even begin? First and foremost, if there is one team that is over-valued frequently, it is the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Let me throw this stat at you...Notre Dame is WINLESS (0-10) straight up facing a Top 20 team away from home, going just 3-7 against the spread. ND is also an atrocious 0-9 and 1-8 against the number in New Year's Day Bowl games. 

As for LSU, this team is rolling right now. After their embarrassing loss to Troy, they finished the season 6-1 SU and ATS, with their only set back coming to Alabama. A big part of this is their defense. They rank 11th in total yards, 22nd through the air, 21st on the ground, and 14th in points allowed per game. They should be able to shut down this one dimensional rushing attack of the Fighting Irish.

My favorite factor is that this is the Citrus Bowl where LSU is very familiar with this bowl game. This gives a huge edge to LSU. Notre Dame just might have to much fun at Disney World haha.

50* One & Only NFL GAME OF THE YEAR

New England Patriots -3

It's no secret. Tom Brady owns the Pittsburgh Steelers. Since Brady entered the league (including the Playoffs) Tom Brady has 29 Touchdowns and 3 INTs. Against the Mike Tomlin coached Steelers...he's perfect, 22 TDs and ZERO interceptions. 

What makes this game special is that both teams just played on National TV. Steelers had a fantastic come back against their arch rivals on Sunday Night Football, where the Patriots looked like the Cleveland Browns against the Dolphins on Monday Night Football. Everyone remembers that the Patriots "aren't that good right now" and the Steelers "are unstoppable." Let's not forget, New England didn't have Gronk and were in an AWFUL spot. They were playing the Dolphins twice in 3 weeks and playing their 4th road game in 5 games. Belichick is the master at coaching and no doubt about it, he went vanilla as possible to get ready for the game this week. I hate to say games are meaningless but for all intents and purposes, last week's game meant nothing. Even with that loss, the Patriots still can get the #1 seed beating the Steelers here.

New England is 43-18 ATS off of a loss and are 24-7 ATS after having less than 250 yards the previous week. The Pats are fantastic at bouncing back. They are also 12-4 ATS against the Steelers which includes going 4-1 ATS in Pittsburgh.

40*

New York Giants +4.5

40* CFB UPSET SHOCKER

TCU +7.5

Everyone has already has Oklahoma locked in as Big 12 Champions and given them a birth into the College Football Playoff. That is NEVER a good thing. If there's one thing I know about the Oklahoma Sooners...they always find a way to lay an egg. They remind me of the Washington Redskins. 

Most of you know my handicapping style and its mainly playing contrarian and looking for those fishy lines. The OU powerhouse is only laying a TD to a TCU team that they already beat by 18 this season?! TCU has the defense to stay in this game and it would not shock me one bit to see the Horned Frogs (to use a March Madness term) bust some brackets. 

40*

Wake Forest ML - 120

50* NFL UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH

Buffalo Bills +3

I am shocked we get the full FG here. To be honest, I was seeing if we could get lucky and snag a 3.5, but it's Saturday and we need to get this game out.

The situation clearly favors the Bills. They last played Thursday on the road, but it was still in New York (close to home), and looked awful against the Jets. Buffalo now gets the extra time to prepare and gets to play in their own building, where they are perfect on the season.

The stock couldn't be higher on the Saints right now and they are nearly unstoppable in New Orleans. However, its a completely different story on the road. They are just 1-7 ATS playing outdoors and to make matters worse, it's going to be damn near freezing in Buffalo on Sunday.

For all intents and purposes, this game is a must win for Buffalo. If you look at their remaining schedule, it'll be an uphill battle for the playoffs if they drop this one. Two against New England and on the road in KC. They also finish the season with two on the road.

40*

Duke -2.5

This line just stinks to me. A 4-5 Duke team is laying a FG on the ROAD to a 7-2 Army team that is 5-0 at home?! If you look closer, you will see that Duke has had two weeks to prepare for this game. It's almost always been successful to back the triple option teams with one week to prepare but you fade them when the opponents have the extra time. 

50* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR

Boston College +3

This game couldn't set up any better for the Golden Eagles. First off, BC has had since October 27th to get ready for this game. Furthermore, this is Boston College's last home game of the season. Motivation will be at an all time high and the atmosphere should be electric. 

NC State comes into this game off of two tough conference losses to ND and Clemson after starting the season 6-1. This team had ACC Title aspirations. It's going to be tough to get up for this game after playing two of the biggest programs in the country, especially after that nail biter at home against the National Champs. I expect a let down here from the Wolfpack. 

Bottomline is that Boston College has been money making machines of late, cashing 6 straight games against the number. They are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings at home against NC State.

40* TOP PLAY UPSET SHOCKER

Iowa State +7

This what I like to call the "dream crusher" theory. Oklahoma State is now out of the College Football Playoff hunt with a devastating loss to their arch rival last week. This also nearly evaporates any chance of Mason Rudolph winning the Heisman Trophy. I don't know if this team has the motivation to blowout Iowa State here.

Iowa State has one of the more underrated home field advantages in college sports. The Cyclones have proved that they can ball with anyone. They knocked off Oklahoma and TCU! Iowa State is also 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games. The Cyclones have the secondary to match up with the Cowboys. Grabbing the +7 in this game is a must.

50* NFL Situational GAME OF THE YEAR

Philadelphia Eagles -8

It's a very rare scheduling spot in the NFL but when it happens, I love to fade it. The Denver Broncos are playing their THIRD straight road game. What makes it even worse for Denver is that they are going from Los Angeles to Kansas City and now to Philadelphia, playing on a short week from Monday Night Football. This is a huge advantage for the Birds as they are playing their third straight HOME game and are plenty rested.

Brock Osweiler is getting the start for the Broncos. The only guy worse than this dude is Jay Cutler. Osweiler is SO bad that the CLEVELAND BROWNS are paying his salary (nearly $900,000) for this game against the Eagles. Think about that. A team that has been notoriously bad with QB play is PAYING you to play for different team. 

The Broncos are on a losing streak and they really aren't in a situation where they can afford to lookahead, but it's worth noting that they do have the New England Patriots on deck at home. 

FWIW, this is a fantastic teaser leg. I recommend the New Orleans Saints.

50* CFB GAME OF THE MONTH

Alabama -21

I love the fact that Alabama was ranked #2. It's so obvious that this team is the best in the country and are the cream of the crop. Don't be fooled by the non-sense. I am REALLY hoping its a Georgia/Alabama SEC Championship and we will be BLASTING Bama minus the points. The disrespect of the #2 ranking is going to have this team playing with a huge chip on their shoulder. Add in the fact that Bama is coming off their bye week, where they are a perfect 4-0 ATS, I feel sorry for the LSU Tigers. I expect Nick Saban to open up a huge can of whoop ass on these boys. Typically when LSU plays Alabama, the spread is in the single digits. Now we have a 3 TD spread?! There's a reason for this guys. This Alabama defense is ferocious and it's nearly impossible to score in the double digits against these guys. What's even more impressive is their current play at home. In their home games this season, the Tide has scored 66, 45, and 41 three times. I expect this game to get ugly.

50* GT/Clemson MAX BET Parlay

Clemson -14

I know it's surprising for me to go against a triple option team but I believe this is the perfect spot to back the National Champs. We all know Clemson is coming off a loss but the key here is that they have had over two weeks to prepare, since they played on a Friday. I've always been a fan of backing the triple option teams when their opponents get them on a short week or just one week. However, I love to fade them when they go into their bowl game or teams have an extended period of time to prepare for them. The icing on the cake here is that it's Clemson and that fantastic defensive front.

How do you stop the triple option? Disrupt them right off the snap and Clemson has the big men on the DL to destroy the attack. The Tigers are also allowing only 13.6 points per game but just 7.5 at home. One of the toughest places in play in all of college football is Death Valley at night. I expect Clemson to just destroy GT by not allowing them to score and with GT having the rushing attack, it will take time off the clock and shortening the game, hence the under play as well.

50* GT/Clemson MAX BET Parlay

Georgia Tech vs. Clemson UNDER 49

I know it's surprising for me to go against a triple option team but I believe this is the perfect spot to back the National Champs. We all know Clemson is coming off a loss but the key here is that they have had over two weeks to prepare, since they played on a Friday. I've always been a fan of backing the triple option teams when their opponents get them on a short week or just one week. However, I love to fade them when they go into their bowl game or teams have an extended period of time to prepare for them. The icing on the cake here is that it's Clemson and that fantastic defensive front.

How do you stop the triple option? Disrupt them right off the snap and Clemson has the big men on the DL to destroy the attack. The Tigers are also allowing only 13.6 points per game but just 7.5 at home. One of the toughest places in play in all of college football is Death Valley at night. I expect Clemson to just destroy GT by not allowing them to score and with GT having the rushing attack, it will take time off the clock and shortening the game, hence the under play as well.

40* NC State/Notre Dame BEST BET

NC State +7.5

We were on Notre Dame last week big but we'll be on NC State here for almost the same reasons. NC State (like Notre Dame last week) has two weeks to prepare for this game. Notre Dame played against their hated rival, USC, and put up the performance of the season. It's only natural for these guys to have a let down.

Even though FSU and Louisville are in down years, they were still ranked at the time NC State played them and the Wolfpack stepped up to the plate and took them out. This shows that this team does not back down and doesn't fear the big name program. I also love the fact that Notre Dame is just 6-14 ATS after a straight up win of 20 or more points. This shows that the Fighting Irish are usually over valued after a big win. Getting over the 7 is HUGE here and don't be surprised if this game comes right down to the wire.

40* NCAA BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK

Kansas State -24

There are certain games I look forward to every year and this is one of them. You can almost blindly take Kansas State against their in-state rival, Kansas, and make a killing. KSU has covered the number in 17 of the last 22 meetings. The reason why we're going heavy this season is because KSU let Kansas get the backdoor cover last year. I am expecting KSU to lay a total beat down this time around because prior to that, KSU has won by an average of 33 points per game. I also like KSU here because they sit at 3-4 on the season. A dominating performance puts them back at 4-4 and still alive for a bowl bid.

50* NFL UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH

Denver Broncos +1

One of my favorite angles in the NFL is backing a team that laid a complete egg in primetime. The Denver Broncos got embarrassed on Sunday Night Football against the injury depleted Giants as 13 point favorites. Professional sports are all about motivation and if there is one team that has something to prove this week, it's the Denver Broncos. I also love the fact that this game is on the road. Usually when there are "problems" you want to get away from your home field to relieve some of the pressure. What makes this even better is that they're playing at the best place to play a road game in the NFL. The Los Angeles Chargers have ZERO home field advantage. In all honestly, I think they have a negative HFA. 

Like I said in the promo, this is just our 2nd 50* on an underdog this season. The first...The Chargers on Monday Night Football Week 1, catching 3.5. I must admit, we did get lucky to cover that game as Denver pretty much owned the Chargers from the get go. I expect an inspired performance from the Broncos this week and all it takes is one big mistake from Philip Rivers. He'll lose his cool and the Broncos will run away with this game.

UPDATE: This line has climbed all the way to -2 at some spots. I would still play this game for 5% at -2 or less

40* NFL TOP PLAY SHOCKER

Cincinnati Bengals +5.5

I am expecting a let down here from the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh just did the near impossible and beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead. The Steelers have been the zig zag team of the year. They always follow a great performance with a crappy one. They're taking on a Bengals team that is fresh off their bye week. Cincy's offense has come alive since they made the switch of OCs and their defense has been lights out. They currently boast the #2 defense in the NFL. Bottomline here is that I still think there are severe locker rooms issues in Pittsburgh. It's one thing being an underdog with chemistry problems but when you're the favorite and you're expected to win, it's a whole different ball game.

UPDATE: This line has now dropped to 4 and even 3.5 in some spots. Try your best and get that +4. I would play for 3% under that.

40* USC/ND BEST BET

Notre Dame -3.5

Sorry for the late release but we have been waiting to see if we could get the 3 all week. We'll go ahead and play for 4% now.

There are three main factors for this selection. We have the obvious revenge angle for the Fighting Irish. The USC Trojans are DECIMATED by injuries right now, and Notre Dame has had the all important two weeks to prepare for this game. 

USC is 6-1 but they have been barely getting by week after week. Some of these final scores have been very misleading as the games were close throughout until the final few minutes. The problem with the Trojans is turnovers. They are FIFTH from the bottom in the FBS in turnovers! They have had at least two turnovers in each game this season. Guess which team is one of the best in the nation in turnover margin? Yup, its the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Like most games, turnovers play a huge part of who wins the game. I believe that a key turnover(s) will lead to the demise of the Trojans tonight. 

50* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH

New Orleans Saints -4

There are certain teams/coaches you should always keep your eye on when coming off the bye week and you guessed it, the Saints are one of them. New Orleans is now 8-1 against the spread in their last 9 games having the extra week to prepare.

People have forgotten about the Saints as they started off the season slow at 0-2. But when you look closer, they had a real tough game in Minnesota and they moved the ball well against that fantastic defense but they shot themselves in the foot too many times in goal to go situations and it cost them. They then had to take on Patriots in one of New England's best spots, off a loss. The Saints have now bounced back nicely with two straight wins and their defense is a big part of that. New Orleans has allowed just 1 TD since September 24th.

Another reason this is a great play is that the public is ALL over the Lions here. I love going against a public underdog. This reminds me a lot of the Bills game last week. The public ran to the window to get points with Buffalo against the Bengals (who also started out the season 0-2.) Well, the public got buried there and I expect them to go down in flames here as well. 

50* NCAA GAME OF THE MONTH

Georgia Tech +6

I LOVE this play and to be quite honest, this would have been a GOY but the last two times we labeled a play "game of the year" they've been complete train wrecks. But that's just semantics and we'll play this game for 5%.

This is a situational dream for a sports bettor. We have Georgia Tech coming into this game with two weeks to prepare, while the Hurricanes come off a miracle win against their ARCH rival. A let down is almost inevitable for the U. It's extremely tough to prepare for this triple option that Georgia Tech runs in just one week, especially after you play the biggest game of your season. Another positive for Tech is that heavy rain is in the forecast. It's going to be hard to throw the ball in the bad weather. This gives GT a huge advantage as this will be a battle of the rushers and that's what the Yellow Jackets do, they beat you on the ground. 

It's gone under the radar but these Yellow Jackets have been money making machines. They have now covered the number in 8 straight contests. That's the kind of team I want my money on and I'm betting that they make it 9 in a row Saturday.

40* NCAA UPSET SHOCKER

Rutgers +3

The world is lining up right now to take Illinois and what's even more surprising is that this line has dropped from -3.5 PASSED the key number of 3 to 2.5 in some spots. That's some serious money on the dog. Rutgers also is in a terrific bounce back spot after getting blanked two weeks ago against Ohio State. I believe this game means more to Rutgers as they always have a very tough time winning games in conference play, so when they have a game that is winnable in the Big 10, they go all out.

40* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams OVER 47.5

This is the highest total this match up has seen in a long time. In fact, the highest before this game was 44 three years ago. So why are we taking the over? Because these are not the same Rams and Seahawks teams we are accustomed to seeing. The Rams typically play stout defense and have a dreadful offense. These McVay Rams are the polar opposites. They have the best scoring offense in the NFL right now but the 28th ranked scoring defense. Seattle's defense is clearly not the same as prior years as well. They well also be without Lane and Avril which, no doubt, will hurt the pass rush and coverage. The over is 5-0 at home for the Rams and it 4-1 on the road for the Seahawks. The key here is Seattle playing a good team. When the Seahawks play the good teams of the NFL, the points come in bunches as evidence of their 12-4 OVER run.

50* NCAA TOTAL OF THE YEAR

Air Force vs. Navy UNDER 50

EVERY year we play the Army/Navy game UNDER the total. This play is almost a mirror image of that for the same reasons (just take out Army and replace it with Air Force.) Both teams run the triple option and they know each other like the back of their hands. A lot of teams have trouble with the triple option that never see it. When you practice against it every day, you know how to contain the attack. It's going to be a ton of running plays and the clock is going to continuously move. 

We played this game under last year for a 50* and it was lined at 46.5. We now get 50! I love this play at 49 and above. I would play for 4% if aren't able to get the key number of 49 (7 TDs.) I believe why we are getting so much line value is because how each offense has done this season. Air Force just took on New Mexico and that game was a total shootout. On the surface, it looks like these offenses are juggernauts. But when you look closer and see it's the triple option that has this effect and that the Military academies are extremely disciplined and know how to stop this effective ground game, the under is the only way to look.

50* NFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH

New York Giants vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 44.5

We are getting tremendous line value on this game because of how bad the Giants offense looked early on. However, once Odell Beckham Jr. burst back onto the scene, this offense got a spark. This Giants team is COMPLETELY different with him on the field. The Giants can actually move the ball with all the attention he requires. This is great news for the Giants as the Tampa Bay defense is ailing and they looked awful last week against a Vikings offense with their BACK UP quarterback.

As for the Buccaneers, they have some of the best offensive firepower in the NFL. Although they got smoked week, Jameis still managed to complete over 70% of his passes and throw for over 300 yards against a terrific Vikings defense. 

Bottomline is that we are getting this game below the ultra key number of 45 (6 TDs and a FG.) This game should be back and forth with a lot of passing.  

40* NFL UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK

New York Jets +3.5

The Jacksonville Jaguars are road favorites. Let me say that again. The JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS are road FAVORITES. Not only are they road favorites, they are laying OVER a field goal. The Jaguars haven't been road favorites in 44 games. What's even more surprising is that they are the most popular bet side right now at several shops.

This is a terrible spot for the Jags as they are returning home from London and they looked like world beaters against the Ravens. This team is prime for a letdown. As for the Jets, they played inspired ball last week and I look for that to carry over here. Remember, everyone wrote the Jets off this year. These players are playing like they have nothing to lose and that is a dangerous team to face.

40* NCAA SHOOTOUT OF THE WEEK

Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech OVER 83

It's funny saying this but we were actually waiting for this game to drop below the "key" number of 84. 84 is 21 points a quarter or 12 TDs. 

This game reminds me of our NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on the over last year when the Packers and the Falcons met in the NFC Championship. The reason I bring this up is because that game also had a ridiculous total of 61, which was the highest ever. Well, this game isn't the highest total ever, but it's one of them. I like playing contrarian when the conversation of highest/lowest ever lines come up.

These two teams met last year to a final of 45-44 (89 points.) These two teams just play see saw football, hence why the over is a perfect 5-0 in the last 5 meetings. Texas Tech has eclipsed 50 points themselves in both home games this season. I also expect Mason Rudolph to have a huge game because he was sub par in his standards last week against TCU. Prior to that, the Cowboys posted a 59 on the road at Pittsburgh. 

50* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH

Vanderbilt +9

Yes, we did fade Vanderbilt last time out against Alabama and I knew that if the Tide "rolled" and Florida snuck by Kentucky this was going to be a TOP play on Vandy and it worked out perfectly.

The last two meetings between these two teams have been pure defensive dead locks. Last year Florida won 13-6 and the previous year Florida won 9-7. That's a combined 9 points. Now the Gators have to LAY that in this game?! One of the handicapping fundamentals of sports is you look towards taking the big points with a low total partly because if points are going to be really tough to come by, then it obviously makes it that much more difficult to cover the spread. 

Although Florida is a "winning" team at 2-1, this team is extremely lucky not to be 0-3. They were saved against Tennessee when their Hail Mary prayers were answered and they completed the miracle comeback against Kentucky last week, down 13 points. The Gators have been total money burner for backers lately. They have covered the number just twice in their last 11 home games and are 0-4 ATS at home against the Commodores. This number is only this high because of the beatdown Vanderbilt took last week. I look for a very inspired effort here from Vandy and this game should be tight throughout.

50* NFL Sunday Night Football GAME OF THE YEAR

Oakland Raiders -3

Most of my long term subscribers know this but I'm a Washington Redskins fan. I should say sort of a Skins fan. I do follow this team very closely. One thing I know for sure about this squad, is that you fade them when they play primetime games. That are an absolute laughing stock when playing under the lights. Yes this might be the "square" or "public" play but it all honesty, that doesn't matter when it comes to the Washington Redskins. This same thing happened last year on Monday Night Football when the Steelers were laying 3 at Fed Ex to the Skins. The Steelers absolutely crushed the Redskins. I expect a similar result here.

The Redskins defense, especially pass defense, has been borderline pathetic now for nearly a decade. I simply can't imagine what Derek Carr (who has done an excellent job at protecting the ball) is going to do to this soft secondary. To make matters worse for the Redskins, both teams are traveling from California this week. However, the Redskins were in a battle against a tough defense and their old offensive coordinator in LA. Whereas the Raiders had a "bye week" laying a beat down at home to the lowly Jets.

Getting this at a FG or less is a total bargain. I couldn't believe this even opened -2.5 at some shops. Picking the correct spots to bet against the Redskins is what I do. I believe this is going to be the best situation to go heavy against Washington and we'll make the Raiders our GOY.

Best of luck to us and thank you for being a customer. I truly appreciate it!

40* NCAA TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Florida Atlantic vs. Buffalo UNDER 62

40* NCAA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK

Alabama -18.5

50* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH

New England Patriots vs. New Orleans Saints OVER 56

I refuse to over think this one. Two teams that love to play fast and throw the ball against two defenses that have been poor to start out the year. Although it was the preseason, the Patriots defense has been atrocious the last 5 games and the Saints just made the Vikings offense look like one of the best in the league. What's funny about the Week 1 performances is that the Pats D made Alex Smith look like Tom Brady and the Saints D made SAM BRADFORD look like Drew Brees. That is damn near impossible.

I believe we are getting value here with this total as the Saints did only manage 19 points last week. If you look closer into the game, they did manage to move up and down the field against one of the best defensive units in the NFL, but they kept shooting themselves in the foot during goal-to-go situations and would have to settle for 4 field goals. It's hard to see that happening in the Super Dome where the Saints offense has been the best in the league for a while now.

Lastly, the trends for this game all point to the over. It is a VERY rare spot for the Patriots but the over is a perfect 5-0 following a double digit loss at home. Tom Brady is also dead last in the league in completion percentage. You have to think he's going to do whatever he can to make up for that dreadful performance Week 1. They have also been terrific historically when playing in a dome, going 61-28. As for the Saints, they have gone over the total in 11 of their last 14 home games. 

50* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH

Louisville +3.5

This line truly doesn't make any sense to me. Louisville was 2 point ROAD favorites last season and now they are 3.5 point HOME underdogs. Clemson got worse and Louisville got better. Obviously there's the huge revenge angle for the Cardinals. A lot has been made about this Clemson defense recording 11 sacks last week but that was against a joke of a QB. How do you beat this Clemson team? A running QB. Bottomline, Dabo Swinney is just 1-8 ATS when a road favorite of 7 or less. 

40* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK

Mississippi State +7.5

40* UCLA/Memphis TOP PLAY

Memphis +3.5

This has the makings of the public burial of the day. The UCLA Bruins are the most popular bet at nearly every shop I have spoken with this week. Everyone is lining up for some easy money. Not so fast my friend. Memphis has had two weeks to prepare for these Bruins (Memphis is a perfect 4-0 ATS following a bye week) and it's a dreadful spot for UCLA. This is going to be a 9 am start time for them. Also, the UCLA rush defense has been just awful to start the year, allowing nearly 7 yards per carry on the ground. UCLA is a miserable 0-7 ATS following a straight up win of 20+ points (shows that they are over valued the next week) and are 1-6 and 3-13 ATS in non conference play.

50* Monday Night Football GAME OF THE MONTH

Los Angeles Chargers +3.5

I think the only thing Denver has going for them here is home field advantage. I believe that the Chargers are the better team. They are flying completely under the radar. I think there's serious trouble at the QB position for the Broncos. This new offense the Broncos are trying to run doesn't fit the mold of Siemian. They even went out and signed Brock Osweiler. Any team singing him is a desperate football team. 

The Chargers have always been a solid road team ATS and have done exceptionally well in Denver covering the number. Getting over a FG is the way to go.

40* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Seattle Seahawks vs. Green Bay Packers OVER 50.5

Right off the bat when I saw a Seattle game lined in the 50's, I had to look more into the game. Sometimes the oddsmakers tell you what the right side should be with the number they post. Imagine seeing a Falcons game with a total of 41...it would look beyond fishy and taking the over would look like easy money. Well we all know, when it looks to good to be true, it usually is.

Looking inside the stats, a rule of thumb is you bet the Seahawks to go over on the road and the Packers to go over at home. We have the perfect combination here. Green Bay obviously has an amazing offense but their defense is embarrasing. They gave up the most yards per play last year. I also love the fact that the Packers have gone over the total in Week 1 for 6 straight years. This tell me that their offense is their key preparation for the summer and they are clicking on all cylinders out of the gates.

50* NFL VEGAS INSIDER

Tennessee Titans -1.5

This is the quintessential "Pros vs. Joes" game. The world is going to jump all over the Raiders catching points here. One of my favorite things to fade is when the public loves a road underdog. Typically, people want to bet the over and the favorite (hence WHY they are the favorite) so when the public loves the underdog, especially the ROAD dog, you jump all over the other side. 

When you talk to wiseguys and sports book operators, there's a unanimous hate for Oakland. The numbers just don't add up with them and they are due to take a step back (hence why we also like Oakland UNDER 10 wins.) This team had the worst defensive unit in yards per play last season and benefitted greatly from turnover luck. Even their point differential shows that this team was more like an 8-8 team than a 12-4 squad.

The Titans have now lost back to back years to the Oakland Raiders, so this give us our double revenge angle. When looking closer at last season's game, you will see that turnovers is what killed the Titans. They were able to gash Oakland on the ground and I believe they will do the same this Sunday. 

Bottomline here is that betting is a numbers game. There's a saying that I love "You don't bet sports, you bet numbers." Oddsmakers more often than not will tell you the right side of a game simply by what line they set. Now obviously it doesn't work like that every time because again, they do have to actually PLAY the game and you never know about injuries or ridiculous calls, but I strongly believe 9 out of 10 times, the Titans roll in their home opener.

50* Auburn vs. Clemson MAX BET

Auburn +6

40* NCAA Friday GAME OF THE WEEK

Ohio +4

Week 2 of College Football is one of my favorite weeks because of the over reactions of Week 1. Purdue played Louisville down to the wire at home and surprised a lot of people by easily covering the near 4 TD spread. Now they have a short week and have to get up for lowly Ohio. 

What tells a huge story is this current spread. 3.5's have popped up at several spots and "typical" home field advantage is 3 points. Oddsmakers are saying Purdue is nearly the same team as a MID MAJOR! The public has jumped all over the Boilermakers looking for some easy cash. However, the sharp bettors and market movers are ALL over the road dog here. I wouldn't be surprised to see Ohio win this game outright.

50* MONDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE MONTH

Georgia Tech +3.5

50* NCAA Football MAX BET

Florida Atlantic +10.5

Lots of things to like here about the Owls. It's typically a great bet to back these "lesser known" schools as home underdogs when they are playing under the lights in primetime. It's rare for them to get these games, so they get a big boost from the fans. 

Another key here is the triple option of Navy. For starters, they are breaking in a new QB on the ROAD which is always tough. Also, triple option teams do have the advantage when teams only have a week to prepare for them. FAU has had the entire summer to prepare for this attack.

50* NFL Super Bowl MAX BET

New England Patriots ML -155

Taking the points out of the equation and just asking the New England Patriots to win Super Bowl 51. If you don't want to lay the juice, its OK to lay the 3. However, I personally played the moneyline.

This Super Bowl is nearly a mirror image of last year's. You have the NFC South Champions, with the #1 offense, and the MVP. They are going up against the #1 defense that has a seasoned vet QB, who has won the big game before. Well, we know how that played out. Experience in these big games is vastly under-rated and what's the oldest saying in the book..."DEFENSE wins CHAMPIONSHIPS!" What's so scary about this New England team is that they do boast the #1 scoring defense but they also were the #1 offense in the AFC.

Another Super Bowl this reminds me of is Super Bowl XXXVII. The Oakland Raiders were the flashy top offense in the NFL but they were going up against the #1 defense in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs and their #1 defense destroyed the Raiders 48-21.

In my opinion, Bill Belichick could be the best NFL coach of all time. If he wins this game, he IS the best NFL coach of all time. He takes away what you do best. His ability to prepare is uncanny. Why on earth would you bet against him and Tom Brady?

I also came across this stat, which is a perfect example of this Falcons team being a bit over-valued for this game. Teams that score 40+ points in the NFL Playoffs are 5-24 ATS in their next game. This shows that a premium is put on these high scoring teams knowing the public is going to love them since they look unstoppable. A few sources told me that New England was going to be a 7 point favorite to Atlanta. The Dirty Birds' performance in the NFC Title game dropped the line 4 points...that should tell you all you need to know.

SUPER BOWL 51 GAME PROPS:

- Will there be an onside kick? YES

- Will there be a defensive/special teams TD? NO

- Will there be a 2 point conversion attempt? YES

- Take New England AND Atlanta to convert a 4th down

- Shortest TD of the game UNDER 1.5 yards

- Missed PAT? YES

- Penalties UNDER 12.5

- Falcons commit more penalties

- Falcons commit more turnovers

- NE Punter to have a touchback 

- ATL Punter to have a touchback

- NE players with a reception OVER 7.5

- Longest FG of the game OVER 46.5

- 2nd half + OT to outscore 1st half

- 3rd quarter outscore 1st quarter

- 4th quarter outscore 1st quarter

- Falcons longest kick off return

SUPER BOWL 51 PLAYER PROPS:

- Sanu OVER 47.5 yards

- Sanu OVER 4 receptions

- Gabriel OVER 49.5 yards

- Gabriel OVER 3 receptions

- Freeman OVER 33.5 yards

- Freeman OVER 4 receptions

- Blount scores a TD

- Matt Bryant OVER 1.5 FGs made

50* One & Only NFL GAME OF THE YEAR

Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons OVER 60

I'll be honest with you guys. Ever since Week 16, looking at potential playoff scenarios, I was really hoping for this match up and we got it. The oddsmakers simply can't put a total out high enough for this game. I'll start by saying this and I probably sound like a broken record by now to my long term clients but with totals, whenever you see a total that looks ridiculously high (especially if people are talking about the line "being the first of it's kind or highest in awhile,") you go with the over. Perfect examples are this year's highest NFL total and highest CFB total. We were on both overs and they easily cashed. The largest total this NFL season (besides this one) was 58 and wouldn't you know, it featured Atlanta at home.

Like I said with our Falcons GOM last week, NO one can stop this Atlanta offense. This team is like a video game at home. They have gone over the total in 9 straight at home and 6 straight at home in the post-season. The Falcons are the #1 scoring team in the land and rank #3 in passing and #5 in rushing. What makes this set up so nicely for an over is their pass defense, which ranks 28th. Well, guess who's next to last in the NFL in defending the pass...it's the Green Bay Packers.

You could make an argument that Aaron Rodgers may be the best QB of all time. This team has ZERO running game and he still finds a way to pick apart opposing secondaries. Both teams love to throw the ball (which is great for overs) and both teams have Bottom 5 pass defenses. These two clubs should be able to go up and down the field all day long.

I also love the fact that this game is being played in the fast track of a dome. Since 2003, there has been 31 games played indoors in the NFL Playoffs. 23 of those games went over the posted total. Fully expect #24 on Sunday.

40* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys OVER 51.5

I always like playing overs when two great offenses are going at it in a dome. We also have pass defenses that are struggling. Green Bay is banged up and they boast the 2nd worst pass defense whereas the Cowboys are #26 defend through the air.

Bottomline here is that the hottest QB in the game, Aaron Rodgers, can torch ANY defense. They are a passing team which means a longer game as the clock isn't consistently moving. Both teams have big play capability and both defenses are susceptible to the big play. 4th quarters in Playoff games can get crazy as its do or die and teams don't hold anything back. A flurry of late points are always possible.

50* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH

Atlanta Falcons -5

The Atlanta Falcons offense at home is a freight train. I don't think anyone could stop them. They even scored 24 points on this Seattle defense IN Seattle, where it's nearly impossible to put up points and they should have had even more but the refs jobbed Julio Jones with a non call at the end. But there's a MONUMENTAL difference now. There is no Earl Thomas for Seattle. I believe his absence will show big time here. What's so impressive about this Falcons' offense is that they beat you both ways. They rank #3 in passing and #5 in rushing. You simply can't force them to play your way because they dominate both phases.

HFA (home field advantage) is obviously huge for this game. The knock on Seattle has always been playing away from home. They play exceptionally well in their building but they are vulnerable on the road. It showed again this year with another losing record on the season away from CenturyLink.

Will post some more thoughts later. Wanted to at least get this one out for you guys with a few notes.

40* NFL Saturday BEST BET

Seattle Seahawks -8

It's hard to believe but the Detroit Lions are attracting the most tickets than any team right now in the Wild Card Round. Well, what do we do when the public loves a team? We fade it. I'll gladly fade the Lions in this spot.

Detroit has limped into the Playoffs, losing 3 straight. You never want to back a team that is falling apart at the end of the season. They typically have quick exits. Detroit went from having possibly the #2 seed and a 1st Round Bye, then could have won the Division had a home playoff game and the #4 seed but instead, they are the #6 and have to play in the toughest place in the NFL, Seattle. Detroit is in big trouble here and is ripe for a letdown.

The Lions are in a terrible scheduling situation. This is their 3rd road contest in their last 4 games and they are playing their 3rd game in just 12 days. It doesn't get much worse than that. Actually, yes it does. The Lions haven't won a road playoff game since EISENHOWER was President (1957!)

Seattle comes into this game coming off their first and only home loss of the season. They have always been a great bet to bounce back at home. They have also won 9 straight home playoffs games with an average double digit margin of victory. This game has Seattle written all over it and to be perfectly honest with you guys, if this line was -7 or less, this would be a huge play for us. Still love this play for 4% laying under double digits and this is a great leg for all you teaser lovers out there. 

40* CFB VEGAS INSIDER

Auburn +3

40* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK

New York Giants vs. Washington Redskins OVER 44.5

Well, we went with the Skins over the total last week as our total of the week and it cashed easily. We're going back to the well here and basically for the same reasons. The Skins, especially at home, are over machines. 9 of the last 10 home games and 21 of the last 27 games overall have gone over the total for the Redskins. There's a simple reason for this over success. Amazing offense with terrible defense.

The Giants have been solid on defense of late and they have been on an under tear (part of why this total is low) but this game means nothing to the Giants. As the case in almost all sports, when games don't mean much, defense takes a back seat. I don't expect the Giants to have the same level of intensity on the defensive end here but they still can have some fun on the offensive side of the ball against this dreadful 3rd down Redskins defense. 45 is not that many points for a Redskins game and we'll gladly take the over.

50* One & Only CFB BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR

Clemson +3.5

Total disrepect to the Tigers here. Wrong team favored. I don't think Ohio State is all that. If you watched the Michigan game, you know that the Buckeyes should not be playing in this game tonight. I expect Watson to have a huge game. All this guy does is win and you know he's got a big chip on his shoulder from not winning the Heisman. Remember, Clemson almost took out Alabama in the National Championship but it took a trick on-side kick to change the "tide" of that game. Bottom line here is experience and in the trenches. In big games like this you typically want to back the more experienced team and who dominates the line of scrimmage. Check Clemson. I believe there is a good chance we see a rematch of last year's National Title game.

50* CFB GAME OF THE MONTH

Oklahoma State +3

Wrong team favored, in my opinion. A lot of what goes into handicapping bowl games is deciding what conferences are over-rated and under-valued. Well, I believe the Pac-12 is over-rated big time. Washington State looked awful against a sub-par Minnesota and Utah barely beat a weak Indiana club.

Colorado got exposed in the Pac-12 Championship game. The type of teams that gives Colorado fits are ones with offensive firepower and play-makers. That plays right into the hands of Oklahoma State. Another key advantage for the Cowboys is that this is their 11th straight bowl game and they will be extra motivated after a poor bowl showing last year. As for Colorado, these players are making their first bowl appearance. Jitters may cause them to make mistakes and blown assignments. Defensive Coordinator for the Buffaloes has left for Oregon and will not be there for the game. Just more proof that Oklahoma State is the right side here.

40*

Boston College +2

50* NFL Christmas MAX BET

Pittsburgh Steelers -5

The two main factors landing us on the Steelers is the obvious revenge angle for Pittsburgh (lost 4 straight in this series) and the fact that the Ravens have been a disaster away from home this season. The Ravens are just 1-5 ATS on the road this year (lost 5 straight) and these losses haven't been against the greatest competition. They lost outright to the Jets, barely won straight up against the Jags (lost ATS), and went down 20-0 to the Browns, but won 25-20. However, they failed to cover the number.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are arguably playing the best ball in the NFL right now. They have won 5 straight and what's so impressive about this is that they won 4 of these on the road. Big Ben is nearly unstoppable at home in December. The Steelers have covered the number in 13 of their last 16 in the final month of the season. This is a HUGE spot for the Steelers as they can clinch the division and knock their hated rivals out of the playoffs in the process. Look for the Steelers to take care of business at Heinz Field and if they do so, I expect this team to make a deep run in the post season. 

Injury update: As noted, this was going to be a 5% play if Jimmy Smith was ruled out. He is clearly their difference maker on defense. When he is playing, the Ravens are the #1 defense and #6 against the pass. With him out, Baltimore is the #27 defense and DEAD LAST (#32) against the pass!

40* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Washington Redskins vs. Chicago Bears OVER 47

The Redskins are a clear cut over team. In fact, 20 of their last 26 games have gone over the posted total. They have a fantastic offense but a terrible defense. The Skins are a pass first team (which is always a sign of an over club.) They are ranked #3 in total yards and #2 in passing yards. However, their defense is a train wreck, especially on 3rd down. They give up first downs on nearly HALF of their 3rd and longs. They are ranked #29 in the NFL in yards allowed.

Part of why this total is low is because the Bears are only averaging 17.7 points per game but if you look closer, they have averaged 22.8 points per game since Barkley took over at QB. The Chicago Bears are playing inspired and much better football now. This team didn't quit last week and scored 17 unanswered 4th quarter points against the improved Packers defense. I expect them to hold up their end of the bargain on the offense end in this game.

The trends in this game also scream to the over. Washington has gone over the total in 6 straight following a loss and is 13-3 when facing a team with a losing record. They have also gone over the total in 4 straight road games.

50* CFB Boca Raton Bowl MAX BET

Memphis vs. Western Kentucky OVER 77.5

Get this one ASAP. This line is only going to keep rising.

Not over thinking this one. It's two of the best offenses in the nation. One of the totals I look for every week is Western Kentucky and who they are playing. If they are playing a team that has any kind of offense, we're taking the over. WKU has scored 44 or more points in 9 straight games. They are also the number 2 team in the country in points scored. Memphis is not too far behind them averaging just under 40 points per game on the season. Both teams like to play extremely fast and it's nothing but the hurry up for both squads. This game should be back and forth, non stop, for 60 minutes.

50* NFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR

San Francisco 49ers vs. Atlanta Falcons OVER 50

The Atlanta Falcons are playing at home. One word, points. The Dirty Birds have gone over the total in EVERY one of their home games this season with an average combined score of 63 points per game, which is tops in the league. This team can score on anybody. They managed 23 at Denver, 24 at Seattle, and 42 at Los Angeles! What do you think they will do against the worst (#32 ranked) defense in the 49ers?

What's key here is that BOTH defenses are terrible. As mentioned before, the 49ers are the worst but Atlanta is ranked 28th and they are near the bottom in almost every category, which includes dead last against the pass. As long as San Francisco isn't totally inept and can manage a couple TDs, Atlanta clearly should be able to fill in the rest.

A lot has been made now about west coast teams traveling east to play an early start time in recent years. There isn't much value in that system anymore, and I never was a huge believer in it anyway, but what's not talked about is the fact that these games are featuring a ton of points.

With this game not being, for a lack of a better word, big game, this contest should be a shootout with defenses taking a back seat with little to no intensity.

40* NFL VEGAS INSIDER

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5

It's never a bad thing to back a team that's on a winning streak. Tampa Bay is playing some of the best football in the entire league right now. During their 4 game win streak, they destroyed Chicago, did the near impossible by beating the Chiefs IN Kansas City, suffocated the Seahawks, and avoided almost a sure letdown and beat San Diego on the road. The Saints are polar opposite.

Besides sneaking out a win vs. Seattle at home, this team has beat up on a few cupcakes and that was it. They won an emotional home game against the Rams and trounced the dreadful 49ers. Last week was telling on who/what the Saints are as a football team. They were completely out played at home, which all but ended their hopes at the playoffs. They have to finish the season with 3 out of 4 on the road against TB, Arizona, and Atlanta. All I can say is "good luck." Some quit might come over these Saints players if they get down in this game. Part of why they are so bad is that dumpster fire secondary and defense. They might get embarrassed with how hot the passing attack is for Tampa Bay right now. 

This line is low because of the Bucs history at home against the number. However, this has given us solid value especially with this game being under a field goal. TB is getting hot at the right time. All signs point to buy on the Buccaneers and sell on the Saints.

50* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH

Washington Redskins -1

As up to right now, this game is the Washington Redskins season. They lose this winnable game here and drop 3 in a row, stick a fork in them. However, they are right back in the thick of things with a strong performance Sunday. Washington is expected to have Jordan Reed and Trent Williams back for this game, which should give a huge boost to this already potent offense that ranks #2 in the NFL. The problem with the Skins is their defense but they are facing an Eagles offense that is stuck in the mud. After a hot 3-0 start, the Eagles have lost 7 of 9, 5 of 6, and 3 straight. Part of this is because Carson Wentz has regressed big time. His decision making has been horrendous and he is forcing balls into tight coverage. The Eagles have only scored 42 points COMBINED during their 3 game losing streak. 

If there was one game where the Redskins defense had their best game, it was against the Eagles. They had 5 sacks on Wentz and the Eagles didn't score an offensive TD (KO return and pick 6.) Washington has won 4 straight and covered 5 straight vs. the Eagles. The Skins are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

50* CFB Army/Navy MAX BET

Army vs. Navy UNDER 50

(This line has tumbled down to 47 at most shops now and would play for 4% at this number. No play at < 45.)

There is no secret to this play. It's the Army/Navy game. You take the under.

Both teams run the triple option and they know each other like the back of their hands. Lot of teams have trouble with the triple option that never see it. When you practice against it every day, you know how to contain the attack. It's going to be a ton of running plays and the clock is going to continuously move. Navy is also without their senior QB and senior RB so getting into an offensive rhythm could be a serious problem.

50* NFL Sunday Night Football GAME OF THE YEAR

Seattle Seahawks -7

Man, where do I even begin? For starters, Carolina is one of the worst bets on the road in the NFL. They are just 1-4 straight up this season away from Charlotte and have covered the spread twice in their last 9 road contests. For all this Panther bashing, we actually had Carolina last week on the road, but that was because of a TERRIBLE spot for Oakland and they (Carolina) still only managed to cover by the hook, when they should have won the game. After coming back and blowing the late lead, I feel as that was the straw that broke the camel's back on this Panther season. Yes, they still have a slim chance to make the playoffs, but they have to win out and it starts by having to win a back-to-back west coast road game at the toughest place to play in the game (Seattle) against the best defense in the league. Good luck with that. If they fall behind early and the crowd starts roaring, goodnight Carolina.

Seattle's weakness has always been the road and they proved that yet again with a real stinker at Tampa Bay. Russell Wilson had one of the worst games of his career and it had the feeling as if Seattle was simply looking past the Buccaneers. You know they are going to have a focused week of practice after that poor showing and they should bounce back nicely here. The Seahawks are an amazing 20-8 ATS following a straight up loss. Another angle I love about this game is that Seattle has playoff revenge. You always remember what team ended your season the year prior, and what better way to get back at them by blowing them out on your home turf.

50* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH

Carolina Panthers vs. Oakland Raiders OVER 49

To paraphrase this game, the Panthers go over when playing on the road and the Raiders go over when playing at home. They are both 15-6 their last 21 in that spot. We should see more of the same here as the Raiders pass offense is one of the best in the game going up against the dreadful Panthers pass defense/secondary. The Raiders defense is also very poor and rank toward the bottom in multiple categories.

Another key for this game is the situation for both teams. Oakland comes off the short week, coming from Mexico, in the altitude. This team has got to be tired and tired legs impacts the defensive side of the ball more, in my opinion. It takes more effort to chase down guys and tackle them than it does to out run a defender. Carolina played Thursday Night Football and has had the extra time to prepare. Carolina is the type of team that usually plays to the pace of their opponent and since Oakland is the type of team looking for a shootout, I am expecting exactly that Sunday afternoon.

50*

Indiana -18.5

40*

Tulsa -22

50* NFL Thanksgiving MAX BET 

Washington Redskins +7

Too much Cowboy love here. I am totally shocked the Redskins are getting a touchdown. This is a fierce rivalry. You see it constantly in these big rivalry games, especially in this series...no matter what their records are at the time, these games are always close and competitive.

The Cowboys win streak is overshadowing the fact the Redskins are on fire as well. Besides the first game of the season for the Skins, they have been in every ball game. They are now 6-1-1 since starting the season 0-2. Their 2nd game of the season against these Cowboys could have easily been a victory but Kirk Cousins' huge mistake in the end zone cost them that game. Since then, this Redskins offense has been on fire and they are protecting Cousins. Their offense is Top 3 in almost every category. I think the Redskins have an excellent chance of stealing this game outright and it looks like this contest is going to go down to the wire. The Cowboys win streak started against Washington, and I think it has a great chance to end here with the Redskins.

50* Sunday Night Football TOTAL OF THE YEAR

Green Bay Packers vs. Washington Redskins OVER 50

This Green Bay defense has been a nightmare. For starters, they're not healthy, but they are still getting gashed in recent form. They have allowed 30+ in 4 of their last 5 games and in 3 straight. Tennessee dropped nearly FIFTY, that's right, FIVE-ZERO. Another reason for this is because the Green Bay defense doesn't get any breaks, because the offense only throws the ball so barely any time is coming off the clock, which is GREAT for us over bettors. Rodgers has attempted 45, 42, 56, 38, 43, and 51 passes in his last 6 games. Kirk Cousins has thrown the ball over 30 times all but once this season. Both these two teams are pass happy, which can lead to quick scores and interceptions that lead to short fields.

The Redskins offense has been stellar this season. They are 2nd in the league in yards per play, 4th in totals yards, and 3rd in passing yards. They have also gone over the total in 7 straight home games and 16 of their last 21. The Packers have gone over the total in 5 of their last 6 coming off a loss. This game has sub par defenses and terrific passing attacks. It has an air it out, shootout written all over it.

50* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH

Buffalo Bills +3

The Buffalo Bills have shown that when they are focused, they can play with anyone. Just look at what they did to the Patriots. Granted, Brady was absent, but they still managed to do the near impossible...SHUT OUT the mighty Patriots at home. This game for me is all about the ground. Buffalo's rushing attack can run on anyone. They are ranked #2 in the NFL with 155 yards a game going up against the Bengals 24th ranked run defense. The Bills impressed the hell out of me going into Seattle and running all over that stout defense of the Seahawks. It was a tough loss but now they get the bye week and the extra time to prepare. This is just like what we explained with the NFC GOM on the Redskins that cashed. It's a good bet to back teams that went into the bye off a loss rather than a win. The Bengals look like the wheels are falling off after that tough beat on Monday Night Football (short week for them) and Marvin Lewis' time looks all but over in Cincinnati. 

50* CFB Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR

West Virginia +3

Morgantown WV, under the lights, in Primetime. This place is going to go ballistic. HFA alone in this game should be worth 4 points minimum. So Oklahoma is a touchdown better than the Mountaineers? I don't think so. Without question, West Virginia has the best defense in the Big 12. They haven't allowed more than 21 points at home all year. They have allowed more than that (21) twice all season in all of their games.

This is typical Oklahoma and Bob Stoops. He ALWAYS finds a way to screw things up in big games and one mistake is all it will take for this ridiculous crowd to go crazy and for all the momentum to swing. Oklahoma plays ZERO defense and in games in the Big 12, its usually back and forth offensively, so who's defense can make that big play wins the game. Well, Oklahoma allowed 46 to TCU and 59 to TTU. WVU allowed 10 to TCU and 17 to TTU. Let me give that to you again. 27 combined points to TCU AND TEXAS TECH, where Oklahoma allowed 105! The Sooners also come off a blowout victory over Baylor and OU has lost 4 straight, against the number, after winning by 20+ points. Looks like they're in for a bit a letdown too.

We got the much better defense, the home field advantage, and we're GETTING points?! I'll take that all day.

40*

Charlotte +4.5

40* NFL VEGAS INSIDER

Pittsburgh Steelers ML -134

The stock couldn't be higher on the Dallas Cowboys right now. It's time to sell. Everyone is running to bet the Cowboys for this game but there's a reason the Steelers are the favorite. Steelers have always been a great bet, against the spread, versus teams with a winning record and off a loss. My sources have informed me that several max bets from key players are on Pittsburgh and experts I trust LOVE the Steelers here. 

50* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH

Washington Redskins -2.5

The Minnesota Vikings are in a downward spiral. They undoubtably have the worst offense in the NFL. Their line play is atrocious, as they average 2.7 yards per carry on the ground and just 4.7 yards per play, which is worst in the NFL. The Washington Redskins are the 2nd best team in the NFL on yards per play at 6.2 on offense. The Skins weakness is their rush defense but the Vikings run game is so pathetic that the Skins can over come this in the other phases of the game and since Minnesota is so inept on the ground.

The Redskins are also coming off the bye week. They entered the bye coming off a loss and a tie. I love taking teams going into the bye week on a bad note (loss/tie) rather than off a win. Team's going in off a loss/tie, give that extra effort in preparation. We see it all the time when teams go into the bye on a winning note, they are flat the next week. Just look at the Vikings this season. They were on fire going into the bye week and haven't won since. 

This may be a little "coulda, shoulda, woulda" but the Skins could easily be 7-1, at least 6-2. They had a 17-13 lead against the Lions with 50 seconds left and it took Matthew Stafford heroics (with Norman out) to win that game. They then missed a chip shot FG in OT vs. the Bengals to win the game and a Kirk Cousins brainfart in the end zone cost them against the Cowboys in the 4th quarter. Bottomline here is that this team is better than their 4-3-1 record and Minnesota is worse than their 5-3 record.

40* NFL SHOOTOUT OF THE WEEK

Green Bay Packers vs. Tennessee Titans OVER 49

The Titans are on an over tear right now. 6 straight games have gone over the total. Their last 4 games have had combined scores of 54, 60, 58, and 78. They are going up against a Packers defense that is injured and looking like swiss cheese in recent form. However, the Packers can still put up their share of points and their 2 minute hurry up offense is for real. Green Bay is struggling because they can not run the ball. Teams that throw the ball a lot are good for overs because the clock doesn't move as much. 

40*

South Florida -3

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New England Patriots -5

40* CFB Top Play PARLAY

Mississippi (Ole Miss) +5

40* CFB VEGAS INSIDER

Wake Forest -7

The key here is Wake Forest having two weeks to prepare for the triple option attack of Army. Wake Forest has had great success defending the triple option. They held Tulane's to only 3 points to begin the season. WF has covered 8 of their last 11 following the bye week where Army has lost 7 of their last 29 facing a team coming off the extra week to prepare. Wake Forest hasn't lost to Army in nearly 30 years and have won 7 straight home meetings.

40* CFB Top Play PARLAY

Iowa State +7

4*

San Diego Chargers vs. Atlanta Falcons OVER 54

Not going to over think this one. Two elite passing teams and the two top offenses in the game. Atlanta's pass defense has been poor and offenses usually excel in the domes. Both teams average over this many points in their games this season. There's too many ways for this game to go over. The last time the Falcons had a game lined at 54, the final score was 45-32. The last time for the Chargers...35-34.

40*

Colorado +1.5

Colorado is the only team left in the nation that is undefeated against the spread (7-0.) All my close sources have the Buffaloes winning this one outright. Stanford's offense is the 8th worst in the country and they only average 19 points. Stanford is banged up and their defense has been getting gashed at times. Colorado has the 2nd ranked Pac-12 offense and 14th ranked in the nation. 

40*

North Texas +18

4* NFL BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK

Green Bay Packers -4

The Dallas Cowboys had their huge statement game last week against the Bengals. Dallas is a solid football team but now is the time to sell them this week. Their stock is high as ever right now and this line is too low. Let's not forget that the Cowboys have failed to covered the spread in 6 straight games facing a team with a winning record.

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are close to unstoppable at home. A big reason is that rush defense. They haven't allowed more than 50 yards in a game, are allowing only 1.99 yards a carry, and have allowed just 171 yards through 4 games. That's insanely good. This is going to force the Cowboys to throw the ball and this is where Dak could finally make a mistake. Dez Bryant being absent is going to have a noticeable effect here.

A little inside info for you guys (that hasn't been really covered on sports media outlets) is that Lambeau Field plays different than most fields. They have a special type of grass there which makes it difficult to jump off the line of scrimmage and get your footing. This make a WORLD of difference for defensive lineman. That half second jump time is the difference between a sack and a deep TD to Jordy Nelson. There's a reason Rodgers is superhuman at home and is very tough to sack.