The Lions won't have the Detroit fans to support them. They're thousands of miles away on the West Coast. Last week was a fortunate matchup as they faced Tampa Bay, a team which was only in the playoffs because of the division it plays in. Now, they face the top team in the NFC.

The 49ers didn't play nearly their best against the Packer and they still won. They'll be better this week. Not having to travel will prove to be helpful. Now is also when the 49ers will benefit from their Wildcard Rd bye, a luxury which the Lions didn't have.

This is the best Detroit team in some time but the 49ers are better on both sides of the ball. San Francisco was third in points scored per game while Detroit finished fifth. The bigger difference is on the other side of the ball. The 49ers’ defense finished third in points allower per game while the Lions finished 23rd in that category.

They say that defense wins championships. Lay the points and expect that saying to ring true of the NFC Championship game on Sunday.

We've grown used to the Chiefs having a great offense and Patrick Mahomes working magic in the playoffs. It's hard to think otherwise. The Chiefs offense isn't great right now though. And Mahomes has never had to play a road playoff game. He's played in 3 Super Bowls but that's not a true road environment. Mahome's other 12 playoff games have all come at home. Now, he plays in cold, hostile Buffalo where he'll go up against some of the most passionate fans in the league and be opposed by a Bills teams which is playing its best football.

After a sluggish start, Buffalo has been winning for weeks. This team is ready to get the KC monkey off its back. Twice, the Chiefs have eliminated them from the playoffs. The Bills beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead in the regular season to earn the right to play this game here. At home, the Bills are are better on both sides of the ball They're 8-1 here, outscoring teams by a 29.7 to 15 average score. The Chiefs' regular season issues will rear their heads and the Bills will win and cover on Sunday night.

This is a great storyline as it pits Jared Goff against Matthew Stafford. You probably know that those two quarterbacks were traded for each other. Stafford played many years in Detroit. Goff played several for the Rams. Both QBs are still extremely capable. Both did well to guide their teams this far. The Lions have some important other advantages.

It stars with playing at home. With Michigan having just won the championship and the Lions favored to win this one, fans in Detroit are in a frenzy. They will play a role. The Lions won 6 of 8 games here, covering 5. The Rams were a modest 5-4 on the road.

Goff has better weapons than Stafford. The Lions score more than 27 points a game. The Rams score less than 24. Both defenses allow roughly the same number of points overall but the Lions allow 21.6 per game at home compared to the Rams' 23.8 allowed on the road.

The projected high-scoring game favors the Lions. They are 11-2 ATS their last 13 when the total was set at 49.5 or higher, 6-1 ATS in home games wiht a total of 49.5 or higher. The Rams are just 3-6 ATS their last 9 when the total was set at 49.5 or higher. Lay the small number! ***WC GOY***

Two undefeated teams, playing for the title. What could be better? For all the complaining, it ended up working out. As much as I love this Washington team, its magical run comes to an end on Janurary 8th.

The Huskies were able to dominate time of possession against Texas. That's not going to happen against Michigan. They were also able to throw for more than 400 yards. That's also not going to happen against the Wolverines.

Defense wins championships and Michigan's defense is the real deal. One of the best we've seen in recent years. The Wolverines held Alabama to less than 100 yards in the first half. Their 9.5 points allowed per game during the regular season was the best in the nation.

These teams met in 2021. The Huskies were able to move the ball through the air but the Wolverines dominated them on the ground. Michigan went on to win 31-10. A young Blake Corum carried the ball 21 times for 171 yards and 3 touchdowns. (Haskins also ran for 155 yards.) Now its Corum and Edwards instead of Corum and Haskins, Corum leading the charge. He'll have his way with Washington and carry Michigan to the title.

Miami wasn't good last week. That will cause a lot of people to stay away or to back Buffalo. When handicapping the NFL, its important to learn from the previous week but its also important to be able to "wash away" recency bias. Many bettors base too much of their handicapping on what they just saw, forgetting about what may been going on all season.

Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel provided some perspective: "If we had said that after Week 4 that we're going to play this Buffalo team again, and it will be the last game of the season for the division crown, I think everyone would have accepted that. That's some perspective that I talked to the team about. Their eyes were laser focused -- they will be eager to wash away this past game. The only way you can do that is to prepare for the next one."

Miami was on the road for the bad Baltimore loss and for the previous loss to Buffalo. The Dolphins are now at home where they are 7-1 on the season. The Bills are also 7-1 at home but they're only 3-4 on the road.

They haven't fared well in the series for years but the Dolphins did win 21-19 the last game played at Miami. In what will likely be another close game, homefield will again make the difference. Grab the points! ***GAME OF MONTH***

When you get this far, it goes without saying that all the teams are excellent. Texas was 12-1. Washington was 13-0. Texas lost against Oklahoma but beat Alabama. Washington beat Oregon (twice) and USC.

I backed Texas in its last game, a blowout of Texas Tech. The Huskies are not the Red Raiders. The Longhorns average 36.2 points a game. The Huskies can score with anyone though. They average 37.7.

The biggest reason that the Longhorns are favored is that they are considered to have a superior defense. Maybe so. But the Huskies are better on that side of the ball than the public realizes. They held 3 opponent to 10 or less. If they couldn't stop a team, the Huskies just outscored them.

Another reason that the Longhorns are favored is that Washington won a lot of close games. The Huskies won 4 games by 3 points or less. Each of their last 9 games was decided by 10 or less. All those narrow margins give people the impression that the Huskies were lucky to win some of those. I like that they won all those close games though. This team finds a way to get it done!

There's also the perception, by many, that the Big 12 is superior to the Pac-12. I disagree. The Pac-12 was stronger this season than people think. There were a lot of good teams and Washington beat every one of them which it faced.

The Longhorns are 1-3 ATS their last 4 tries when playing with 2 or more week's rest. Off their bye this season, they won by only 7 when listed as a 24 point favorite. The Huskies, who beat Oregon when off their bye, are 7-3 ATS their last 10 non-conference games. This game will likely be very close and I'm taking the points. ***BOWL GOY***

The Ravens looked pretty convincing against the 49ers but the Dolphins are a different type of team. Miami averages more than 30 points a game and the defense has gotten progressively stronger.

Baltimore scores a lot but Miami scores more. Last season, the Ravens scored 38 against the Dolphins and it still wasn't enough. Miami won 42-38.

The Ravens are off that big statement win on National TV. That was on Monday night on the West Coast. They're now traveling back across the country to play an early game on a short week.

The Dolphins have something to prove and Baltimore linebacker Queen added fuel to the fire by talking about "teams being cute and playing basketball on grass."

The Dolphins have won 5 of their last 6 and the only loss came by 1. They will prove to the world that they aren't soft on Sunday. ***AFC GOY***

Off consecutive losses, the Cowboys really need this one. They are still fighting the Eagles for first place in the NFC East. The Lions do still want a first round bye but they are off consecutive wins and have already locked up first place in the division. In my estimation, this game is more important to the Cowboys.

The Cowboys are an entirely different team at home. They pounded the Eagles 33-13 last game here. They are outscoring teams 39.9 to 15.4 in games here. I played against them in the only game that they didn't cover here but the Cowboys are 7-0 straight up and 6-1 against the spread in their 7 home games.

Prescott has 20 touchdowns against only 2 interceptions in the games here, completing 74% of his passed. Coach McCarthy said this of the Cowboys' homefield advantage: "We've been able to get into a rhythm early and be able to just keep your foot on the gas. The crowds have been great."

Detroit gets a reality check and Dallas stays perfect at home. ***NFC GOM***

SEC vs. Big Ten. In a battle of these two very good teams, give me the points with Mississippi. The Nittany Lions were great as favorites in the regular season but the bowls are an entirely different dynamic. Penn State only lost to Ohio State and Michigan but Ole Miss only lost to Georgia and Alabama.

Though they weren't hurt as badly as some teams, the Nittany Lions may have more significant opt-outs than the Rebels. They will be without All-Big Ten defensive end Chop Robinson. They also had several players declare for the NFL draft. So, it remains to be seen how much action they'll see. Ole Miss had defensive end Cedric Johnson opt out but otherwise looks to be pretty much unscathed.

The Rebels are 14-7-1 against the spread their last 22 on a neutral field. They're also 12-2 straight up and 9-5 ATS their past 14 non-conference games. They score 34.8 points per game and they're not going to go away. Give me the points. ***EARLY RISER***

Motivation favors the underdog. Boston College wants to salvage some dignity. SMU feels it deserved a bigger bowl game. A game at Fenway also favors the Eagles over their neighbors from the south.

SMU is a future member of the ACC. For now, the Mustangs still reside in the AAC. The Eagles are 5-1 straight up and 4-2 against the spread in 6 tries against American Athletic Conference foes.

Though his backup led them to a win in the AAC Title game, the Mustangs lost their star QB to injury in the regular season finale. The Mustangs last 3 games away from SMU were decided by 12, 4 and 5 points, an average of 7. This will be another close one. Grab the points! **EARLY RISER**

Patience is a virtue. I liked Kansas from the minute this matchup was announced. By waiting, the line has come down on the Jayhawks, offering us improved value. Kansas crushed Cincinnati 49-18 last game. UNLV got brought down to earth by Boise State, 44-20. Prior to that, the Rebels had been fortunate to face a soft schedule. Kansas has beaten Oklahoma and destroyed UCF. The talent difference will be evident, as the Jayhawks pull away to win by at least 2 touchdowns. **Bowl Bonanza**

The Giants are going to wish they never played this game. The Eagles are angry and they will dominate the Giants this afternoon. NY just lost by 18 and this is a far more dangerous opponent. The Eagles are 6-3-2 against the spread last 11 times that they were favored and that includes a 2-1 mark as home favorites of 10.5 to 14 points. They are 11-7 against the spread their last 18 in that situation. The Eagles have won the last 4 meetings and 3 of those wins came by 24 or more points. Lay the points. ***Christmas Day Dominator***

The Titans are dealing with injuries but they are still giving everything they've got. Seattle, which has its own injury problems, kept its hopes alive with a big win last week but that was by 3 points on the final play. The Seahawks had lost their previous 3 and are now playing on a short week. They are 2-5 on the road. The Titans are 4-2 at home. Since a 7-point win to close out November, the Titans have seen all 3 of their games decided by 3 or less. The Titans won the last meeting by 3 points, in OT. They are 15-6-4 against the spread their last 25 against AFC West opposition. This will likely be another close one. Grab the points.

Georgia Tech is happy just to be here and is looking to build on next year. The last time that the Yellow Jackets were in a bowl was 2018 and they got blown out. Coach Key said: "What I want to do is to be able to get as many opportunities as we can early on to keep our guys in shape to hone their skills so we haven't lost what we've been able to build through the season. Get guys a lot of situational football, a lot of third downs, red area, two-minute, four-minute-type situations." UCF is here to win. Senior quarterback John Rhys Plumlee returned from injury down the stretch and that coincided with the Knights' hot November. This will mark their 3rd Gasparilla Bowl win in five seasons. So, they're very familiar. We saw the Bulls thrive in their home state yesterday and this venue should also favor the team from Florida. UCF dominated GT in 2022 and also in 2020. The Jackets have improved but not enough. They've struggled outside of their conference with 3 wins in their last 12 tries. Lay the points! ***BOWL GOM***

This is a big game for the Bulls. They're a program on the upswing and are thrilled to be here. USF had won only 4 games the past 3 years combined. So, getting here under their first year coach is a really big deal. They get a favorable matchup and a great venue. Syracuse was up and down this season and fired its coach. The Orange will also be without their starting quarterback. Backup Carlos Del Rio-Wilson, who threw three touchdowns and six interceptions when called on this season, is also hurt. That means redshirt freshman Braden Davis is expected to make his first start. No matter who is behind center, it won't be senior Garrett Shrader. USF coach Golesh said this of the game being played at Boca Raton: "For us to be in our home state ... I would hope there's a bunch of green and gold in the stands. It'll feel like a home game in that regard." Healthier, more excited to be here and playing in their home state, grab the points with the Bulls! ***ESPN DOMINATOR***

Give me the points with Jacksonville. The Ravens are strong but Jacksonville plays best against good teams. The Jaguars are 5-2 against the spread against winning teams. It helps their cause against the Ravens that the Jaguars are the 4th best team in the NFL at stopping the run. They allow only 92.2 yards on the ground, per game. The offense is in good hands with an improving Trevor Lawrence. The Jax QB said this: "It's feeling better. Thankfully, I made out of the game pretty clean. I didn't re-aggravate it anymore. I'm just trying to keep getting better every day. Hopefully it feels even better this week. I was able to move around decent on Sunday, so that was positive." The Jaguars beat the Ravens by 1 point last year. That was an exciting 28-27 victory. This will be another close one and I look for the Jaguars to again get it done. ***SNF GOY**

I'll take the points with the better team in this one. Rourke and some of the offensive players have hit transfer portal. Defense still matters. The Bobcats allow 15.6 points a game. The Eagles? They allow 29.6 points a game. Ohio is 6-3 against the spread its last 9 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. GA Southern is 0-4, both straight up and against the spread, the past 4 times it played with 2 or more week's worth of rest. Eagles are 0-4 against the spread last 4 times that they were off a conf. loss, 4-10 their last 14 in that situation. Rourke's replacement is a senior who can both throw and run, My play is with the points but if you're feeling adventurous, you may want to also sprinkle in a little on the money-line. Go Bobcats! ***CFB EARLY RISER***

Miami may be the flavor of the month but this is far too many points. The Titans manhandled this Miami team last season. Henry didn't even play and they still rushed for 198 yards. The Titans sacked Tua 4 times. He threw an interception and fumbled 3 times. Granted, that was in cold, rainy Nashville and this will be in much warmer Miami. The point remains that Tennessee matched up very well with Miami les than a year ago. This season, six of the Titans' 8 losses came by 14 or less. Vrabel's is liked and respected by the Titan players. They are well aware that is job could be in jeopardy. This is their chance to go out and play hard for him under the National spotlight, going all out for their first road win. This game will be close and I'm grabbing the points. ***MNF GOY***

I had a big win with Philadelphia in the first meeting. I remember that game well. So do the Cowboys, who will be thinking payback when they host the hated Eagles on Sunday night. Their loss at Philadelphia continued a disturbing trend for Dallas of losing against top teams. The Cowboys will be determined to change that and make things right. They want to prove to themselves and to the world that they don't just beat the bad teams. The setup is perfect. The Cowboys have had had some extra time to rest up and prepare, due to their Thanksgiving game. The Eagles just got a reality check out from the 49ers. Before that, they'd taken on the Bills and Chiefs. All those games against elite teams are going to take a toll. Dallas outscores teams by an average of 14 points. The Eagles outscore teams by an average of 3 points. Dallas is undefeated at home this season and is 7-2 against the spread last 9 as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Give me the Cowboys. ***Revenge GOY***

Army enters as the hotter team but that isn't necessarily a positive. The Black Knights have been out of action since November 18th. The last time that they played with more than a week off, the Knights were small favorites against Boston College. They lost that game outright. They are 21-44-2 against the spread, when coming off a bye. Navy hasn't had nearly as long a layoff. The Midshhipmen are 7-5 against the spread the last 12 times that they were off a conference loss and 16-9 ATS their last 25 as underdogs. Go. Navy!

Off a loss to Arizona, the Steelers are 3-3 over their last 6 games. All 3 of their wins came by 6 points or less. The Patriots lost by 14 at Miami in October. That's the only of their past 7 games which was decided by more than 6 points. Every other game has been ultra-close. The defense has allowed 10 points or less in 3 straight. That makes beating the Patriots by more than 6 points very difficult. The Patriots may score the fewest points but the Steelers aren't far behind. They average only 16 a game. A bad Steeler offense against a great New England defense. With the Steelers 0-5 against the spread the past 5 times that they were home favorites of 3.5 to 7, I'm happy to take the points. ***TNF GOM***

The Bengals struggled in Browning's first start. He's gotten his feet wet now and will be better from the experience. He also expects to have Tee Higgins back, a luxury he didn't have against Baltimore. Browning, who did complete 19 of 26 passes for 227 yards against the Ravens, said this of Higgins: "Tee's one of the top receivers in the NFL. I don't think can really put into words how important he is to this offense ... there's just something that Tee brings the table being as big, as fast and having the experience he does, where it's always nice to have him and Ja'Marr on the outside." The Bengals are 15-7 against the spread their last 22 as underdogs. The Jaguars won by 3 last game and have only won one of their last 5 games by more than 10. Grab the points! **NFL GOW**

These teams met in October, at Indianapolis. The Colts won. That's not surprising given that the Titans are 0-6 on the road. The Titans are an entirely different team here at home though. They're 4-1 in games at Tennessee. They have outscored teams by an average of 24.8 to 15 here. They are 4-1 against the spread the last 5 tries as a home underdog of 3 or less. The Colts recent wins have been against bad teams. They are 5-11 against the spread in divisional play their last 16. Give me Tennessee at home! **AFC South GOY**

Boise State is peaking at the right time. UNLV is not. The Broncos are off three straight convincing wins. The Rebels just lost to San Jose State. The Spartans had nearly 500 yards of offense. San Jose State arguably deserved to be here, after beating the Rebels, but a computer broke the 3-way tie. The previous game, the Rebels allowed 344 rushing yards. Broncos are 5-2-1 against the spread last 8 tried laying points. Rebels 3-7 against the spread last 10 tries as home dogs of 3 or less. Lay the small number with the better team.

The Cowboys have been clobbering bad teams. The Seahawks aren't a bad team though and Dallas has far more trouble with better teams. Dallas is only 4-8 against the spread last 12 against winning teams. The Cowboys also have a very big game upcoming against the Eagles next week. Off their Thanksgiving Day romp and looking ahead to that game, Seattle could be overlooked. Seattle is 7-3 against the spread last 10 tries after losing 2 or more games in a row. Grab the points! ***NFC GOM***

Ridder is back and he will have learned from his time on the sideline. The Atlanta QB commented: "You get a different perspective of not only yourself but the offense as a whole. There are a lot of things where I'd like to have gone back and done better. I could've protected the ball better, but there are a lot of (instances) where I could've done things to not be in those situations, whether it's footwork or your reads or your progressions." The Falcons are 3-1 at home this season with Ridder starting. Last season's games were both decided by 3 or less and the game here at Atlanta was decided by a single point. The Saints are only 7-15-1 against the spread their last 23 as favorites, 2-5-1 as road favorites of a field goal or less. Falcons are already 2-0 within the division. Homefield will make the difference. ***NFC South GOM***

Baylor is playing for pride. Its the Bears' last game and it means a lot. West Virginia is already guaranteed a bowl. Baylor coach Dave Aranda knows that the Bears and their fans can really use a victory: "For the team, it would be a relief. It would be validation for working hard. When anything negative happens, you fight the attachment to all the negative things of the past. We're fighting that fight right now, and to get a win would be a victory over that." The Mountaineers have been road favorites four times the last few seasons. They were 1-3 against the spread. They were road favorites once this season and lost outright at Houston. Grab the points and look for the Bears to bring it! ***Big 12 GOM***

Texas needs to take care of business. No leaving anything up to anyone else. The Longhorns will punctuate a strong regular season with a statement blowout. They lost at Lubbock in Overtime last year and will get revenge from that game. Red Raiders are 2-5 against the spread last 7 tries on the road with total of 49.5 to 56. Texas is 3-0-1 against the spread last four tries at home with a total of 49.5 to 56. Longhorns are also 4-2 against the spread last six as home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points, 3-1 in that role this season. Texas wins big! **REVENGE GOW**

Getting extra value with the Jets due to the QB situation. The reality is that the QB change should only help. Wilson was terrible! Boyle has something to prove. The Jets defense is better than Miami's defense. The Jets are 6-3 against the spread the last 9 times that they were off a division loss. Last meeting was decided by 5 points. Three of last 4 meetings all decided by 7 or less and the other was a big NY win. Grab the points! **AFC EAST GOW**

Motivation will play a big part. This game is bigger for the CornHuskers. Not only is it the home finale but Nebraska still needs win #6. This is the last chance. Iowa has already qualified for a bowl. With the push in their last game, the Huskers are 8-3-1 against the spread the last 12 times that they were off 2 or more consecutive losses. Iowa scores 11.3 points per road game. Nebraska scores 21.3 points per home game. Nebraska gets elusive win #6! **Eye Opener**

The Rams have their number but the Seahawks will bounce back with a big effort on Thanksgiving! Seattle has won 8 of the past 10 home meetings against San Francisco. The two losses came by an average of 6.5 points. Pete Carroll likes Geno Smith's chances of starting: “"They’re taking a look at it but they pretty much know what’s going on there. It’s just see how soon it settles down. Like I said, it’s a good sign that he’s functional so that’s not the issue, so it’s just how sore he is. He’ll make it back." SF, which has a revenge game against the Eagles on deck, is 3-2 on the road. Seattle is 4-1 at home. The 49ers might fare better in the Dec. 10th rematch but Seattle is the right way to go on Thursday. Good luck and Happy Thanksgiving!

Detroit fans have been waiting for a long time for this. A Thanksgiving Day game where they've got a good team and where they can count on a big win. That day is here! The Lions are the real deal. The Packers are not. I've had this opinion from Day 1. This is what I said prior to Detroit's 34-20 win at Lambeau in September:

Its early but this game will likely go a long way in ultimately determining the division champion. After years of suffering, Detroit and its fans desperately want this. You can't always get what you want but in this case, the Detroit faithful will finally be rewarded. The Lions have been stockpiling talent over the years and now have a better team than the Packers. That's why they're small favorites, despite the game being played at Lambeau. You may be surprised to learn that the Lions are 10-2 ATS their last 12 divisional games. They're also 3-0 ATS their past three Thursday night games. The Lions, who already won at Arrowhead, have arguably faced stiffer competition than the Packers. They'll find a way to win this game and to seize early control of the division. ***NFC North GOY

Now the Lions get to complete the sweep in front of the entire country. Their time has come. They are 16-6 against the spread their last 22 home games. They had a 211-27 edge in rushing yards in the first meeting! As they were in September, they will be too much for the Packers to handle! ***NFC North GOM

Last week, I won with Eastern Michigan Over the total, an easy 30-27 final score against Akron. This week, I will look to fade Eastern Michigan on the road. The Eagles are only 2-4 against the spread as underdogs. Eastern Michigan, 5-1 at home but 0-5 on the road, gets outscored by an average of 28 to 13 in away games. The Bulls beat this team 50-31 last year. The Eagles want that 6th win but they won't get it. The Bulls will show they've still got some pride and close out their season with a big win. ***MAC GOW***

The Chiefs won when it really counted but the Eagles will exact a little revenge tonight. The Chiefs are only scoring 23.1 points a game this season. The Eagles score 28. The Eagles have only lost once all season. They were winning that game entering the 4th quarter and had a big edge in yards and first downs. The Chiefs have two losses and they've had a few close wins. Remember, the Eagles were ahead 27-21 entering the 4th quarter in the Super Bowl. They've been waiting for this day. They're 7-3 against the spread the last 10 times they were off a division win. This night will belong to them! ***MNF GOM***

Getting points with Seattle is a nice bonus seeing as I've got the Seahawks winning this game. The Rams are getting Stafford back but they've still got a lot of issues. They are 0-8 straight-up their last 8 November games. Stafford hasn't played in some time but Geno Smith closed out last game on a high and comes in with confidence. The Seahawks are battling San Francisco and cannot afford another loss to the Rams. They will get revenge from the Week 1 loss. ***Road Warrior***

The Bills really shot themselves in the foot last week. What were they even doing in that close a game in the first place? Rest assured, they will emerge stronger from the experience. The Bills will be a team on a mission this week. Nobody will get in their way. Not the stumbling Jets, who scored 18 combined points in losing their last 2 games. The Jets average 16 points a game, the Bills average more than 26. The Jets are 1-4 against the spread (0-5 straight-up) in five tries when the total was between 35.5 to 42. The Bills are 5-2-1 against the spread (7-1 straight up) last 8 when up against an opponent with a losing record in the second half of the season. This will not be a friendly environment! Bills win big!

This game is bigger for the Red Wolves than it is the Bobcats. Texas State is already bowl eligible, for the first time in nine seasons. With a win on Saturday afternoon, Arkansas State will become bowl eligible for the first time in four seasons. Doing so against a Texas State team which lately always seems to narrowly defeat them will be extra sweet. The Red Wolves have been playing their best football the past few weeks. They lost at South Alabama last week. With an advantage in first downs, they covered the spread in that game. Before that, they'd won 2 games in a row by 10 and 20 points. The last 3 meetings have all been by 3 or less., each by Texas State. Arkansas State led 10-3 going into the 4th quarter last year but found a way to close. Not this year. It's payback time! ***Revenge GOY***

Nobody wants to take BYU these days. The Cougars have been blown out in 3 straight games and 4 of their last 5. Stuck on 5 wins, even most BYU fans feel that they no longer have a chance to make a bowl. And now the Cougars take on big bad Oklahoma. All of the above has already been considered and factored into the line. The line on BYU is very high and the Cougars have no pressure on them. Everyone has already counted them out. This is their home finale. They've still got that to play for. The Sooners are only 4-8 against the spread their last 12 as road favorites. They've got bigger games to look forward to. Grab all the points. ***Eye Opener***

It would have been the hottest ticket in town if these teams faced each other earlier in the season. Colorado was the talk of the league and Washington State was also red hot. Everything changed. Both teams got brought down to size. Both teams will still really want this one though. Each is anxious to get back on track. That will make for a good game. Colorado still gets the hype because of Sanders. The Cougars are at home though and are the superior team. WSU quarterback Cameron Ward took some responsibility for last week's loss after he fumbled three times and had two returned for TDS. (He also threw for 358 yards and three touchdowns.) "I feel like I've grown in ball security, especially these two years once I first got here to Washington State but it showed up again that it's something that I gotta continuously work on. Any time you put your team in a situation like I did, it's hard to fight out of, and we did. We did end up doing that. But we didn't execute enough plays as a whole to win this game." Colorado is only 2-13 its last 15 road games. Ward will clean up the fumbles tonight and he will lead his team to a win and cover! ***pac 12 GOW***

Pittsburgh being favored in game tells us a lot. The Panthers have been bad all season. Pittsburgh coach Pat Narduzzi will have his worst year. So, what are the Panthers doing favored? Boston College is a fraud, that's why! The Eagles were exposed last week. They got outgained by a 600 to 262 yardage mark! That was against Virginia Tech - not a team like Georgia or Michican. Eagles are 3-9 against the spread last 12 times they were off a conf. loss. Narduzzi is 7-3 against the spread last 10 in November. Panthers will play their best game and salvage some price. ***ACC GOM***

Denver showed up to the wrong party. The Broncos have shown some signs of life. But their season is still done. The Bills are angry from their loss at Cincinnati. They're 4-0 straight-up at home. The Bills score 26.7 points a game. The Broncos score 21.5. The Bills allow only 17.8 points a game. The Broncos allow 28.3. Better on both sides of the ball and playing at home, Buffalo will blow out the Broncos and make a statement on National TV. ***MNF MasterClass***

If you look at the points scored and allowed, the overall numbers are pretty close. Both teams score the same amount of points. The Chargers allow about 1 more point per game. Detroit does come in fresh, as last week was a bye. The Chargers are playing their best football now though and the Lions are playing thousands of miles away from home. They were obliterated their last road game. The Charger defense has especially improved of late. They will keep rolling and pull off the upset this afternoon! ***Non-Conf GOM

Air Force just blew its undefeated season with a 23-3 loss to Army last week. Off that disappointing result and now having traveled thousands of miles, it will be hard to get up for this game. Having a big game against UNLV up next makes things even more challenging. The Warriors are off a 27-14 win and feeling better about themselves. Warriors are now 6-2-1 against the spread their last nine November games. They will provide a tough test for the Falcons tonight. ***MWC GOW

Vanderbilt has a pretty bad against the spread record this season. That's not exactly a secret. That bad record means that many bettors are sick of losing with the Commodores and that they don't trust betting on them. The books know this. Safe with the knowledge that they're still going to get South Carolina backers at any line, they can jack the line up a little higher than it really should be. That's where the value with Vanderbilt comes in. The Commodores lost by only 1 point as 19 point underdogs their last visit here. They also gave the Gamecocks a good fight last year. South Carolina only has 3 wins. Two were by 10 or less and the other was against Furman. Grab the points. ***Saturday Shocker

The line has climbed and we're getting a lot of points with a very competitive North Texas team. Since a bad loss back in Week 1, before they really got their feet on the ground, the Mean Green have been in every game. Since that Week 1 loss, their other 5 losses have all come by 8 points or less. They could easily have won some of those and are better than their record indicates. After some big wins, the Mustangs had trouble with Rice last game, winning by only 5. The Mean Green aren't as good as SMU on defense. They do score 34.8 points a game though and have shown that they can keep up with just about anyone. They're 12-5 against the spread their last 17 road games and that includes a 2-0 against the spread record as road underdogs of 14.5 to 21 points. Overall, they are 5-2 against the spread their last 7 tries as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points. Better yet, the Mean Green are 8-1 against the spread the past 9 times that they were off a conference loss. With a big game at Memphis on deck, SMU could be looking ahead. Give me the points! ***AAC GOY

I am grabbing the points with Central Michigan. The Chippewas scored 37 points to beat Northern Illinois in their last game. They've won four of their last 6. The Broncos are also off a win. Each of their previous wins has been followed by a bad loss and a 3-game losing streak. Western Michigan is bad defensively. The Broncos allow 32.8 points a game. That's tied with Kent State for the most points allowed per game in the MAC. The Chippewas won 42-30 the last time they played here. They're 6-2 against the spread their last 8 games in November and 10-4 against the spread the last 14 times that they were underdogs. They still need to win to become bowl eligible but Western Michigan realistically gave up dreaming about a bowl weeks ago. Go CMU! ***mac GOY

Big battle in Philadelphia! This is a heated rivalry and both teams come in hot. The Eagles have the significant advantage of playing at home. They're 3-0 here. Dallas is 2-2 on the road. The home team won both meetings last year. Cowboys by 6 at Dallas. Eagles by 9 at Philadelphia. The Cowboys are good at beating on the weak and mediocre teams. The last time they played a team currently with a winning record, they got destroyed! Heck, this team even lost by 12 at Arizona! The Eagles lost a close one against a really good Jets defense but otherwise have had no such slip-ups. Last time they took on a top level team, they throttled Miami. This season's seven wins have come by an average of more than eight points. Six of the wins were by 5 or more points and all 6 came by at least a field goal. Lay the points with the Eagles! ***nfc east goy

The Frankfurt fans get treated to a good one as both these division leaders are sitting at 6-2. Two very capable offenses but only one team which combines that with a great defense. Miami allows 25.5 points per game. Kansas City allows 16.1 points per game. The Dolphins have dominated as favorites but are only 1-2 against the spread when they find themselves in the underdog role. The Chiefs thrive in these type of games. They're 10-3 against the number the past 13 times that they played a game where the pointspread ranged from plus 3 to minus 3. They'll be the first AFC team to reach seven wins this season. ***early-bird

The Bruins have been waiting for this game as they have a score to settle. Last year, the Wildcats came to Pasadena and scored a major upset. The Bruins were ranked #12 at the time and the loss effectively eliminated any chance that they might make the College Playoff. This year's Bruins are arguably better on both sides of the ball. Arizona has a reasonably good defense but UCLA's defense is on another level. The Wildcats allow 21 points a game. The Bruins allow 15 points a game. Arizona allows 342.1 yards a game. UCLA allows an average of only 277 yards a game! On offense, UCLA averages 467.4 yards a game. Arizona averages 441.4 yards. The Bruins are a dominant 7-1 against the spread the past eight times that they were listed as road favorites. Their superior defense will be the difference. ***pac 12 goy

Rutgers has been brilliant against the spread this season. But the Knights aren't built to come back. They'll fall behind the more talented and more athletic Buckeyes. Then, they'll be taken out of their game-plan. That happens to them against vastly superior opposition. They are 0-9 straight-up and 2-7 against the spread the past 9 times they were getting 10.5 to 21 points. They're 3-7 against the spread last 10 as home underdogs of 17.5 to 21 points. Ohio State is 9-0 all-time against Rutgers. No game has been closer. 49-10 last year. 52-13 last time at Rutgers. As they always do, the Buckeyes will throttle this team. ***road warrior

The Cowboys are an entirely different team at home than they are on the road. They've won all five at home but lost all three on the road. Those road games came at Boise, Air Force and Texas. None of those are easy places to win. Off consecutive road games, the Cowboys will be thrilled to be back home! They've beaten some decent teams here, including Texas Tech, App State and Fresno State. They will have no trouble disposing of a weak CSU club. I did back the Rams against UNLV but they've followed that up by getting crushed. They won't be ready for this difficult venue! The Cowboys won by 14 points last time they hosted CSU and by 10 before that. They win big again tonight! ***mwc gom

Much of the talk will focus on the quarterbacks. That's obviously important. Things like the Steelers getting back Cameron Heyward are also very important but will be mostly glossed over. He makes their run defense better. TJ Watt said this: "He's a difference-maker. He really is. He's been doing it for a long time. A guy that's played in this matchup more than a few times himself, and anytime you can plug in a player like him, it's going to make a difference, no matter what." Back to the QB's. The Titans' rookie had a big debut but he will find things more difficult on a short week, on the road, at Pittsburgh. The Titans are only 1-5 against the spread their last 6 games against teams from the AFC North. The Steelers are 13-6-1 against the spread the past 20 times that the played with a line ranging from +3 to -3. The Steelers are also 4-0 their last four against against the Titans. They continue their Tennessee dominance tonight! ***tnf goy

This was a game which South Alabama had circled as soon as the schedule game out. The Trojans have owned the "Battle Of The Belt" rivalry for five years and the Jaguars are determined to put an end to that. This is an experience South Alabama team. They aren't where they want to be but a win here will go a long way. Don't forget that they went on the road and won 33-7 at Oklahoma State. The Jaguars score 33.5 points a game. The Trojans score 27.1. The Trojans are 0-2 against the spread when playing a home game with a total in the 42.5-49 point range. They are only 7-14 against the spread their last 21 in that situation. Last year's game was close the whole way. Give me the points! ***sun belt gom

The Colts and Saints each endured tough losses in their last game. They've now each dropped two in a row. The Saints are in better position to get back on the winning track. Indianapolis QB Minshew has turned the ball over 8 times in his past 2 starts. New Orleans Derek Carr hasn't been perfect but I'll gladly take him over Minshew. Carr: "We're getting better and we're going to be OK. But there's no more time. The emphasis is on now. We have a lot of hope and encouragement, but we do feel the pressure to get a win." Benefitting from a few extra days in between games, New Orleans responds to the pressure with a victory. *Road Warrior

On a losing streak, the Bulldogs are exactly who the Tigers want to see. Auburn has dominated the Mississippi State in games here. Last time here, the Tigers won by 9. The previous game here, the Tigers won by 23. The game before that, the Tigers won by 39. Before that, they won by 8. The common theme is Auburn home wins of greater than a touchdown. Tigers are 18-12 against the spread the last 30x they were home favorites of 3.5 to 7 points. Bulldogs pulled off an upset last week but are still only 1-3 ATS as underdogs. Playing back-to-back road games for the first time this season will showcase their weaknesses. Last week's scores might say otherwise but the Tigers boast the better defense. They'll win this game by more than a touchdown. *SEC GOY

Grabbing all the points with the Mountaineers. The Knights gave it everything they had last week but fell just short. That's a tough pill to swallow. Knights are 1-6 against the spread their last 7 tries as home favorites falling in the 3.5 to 10 range. They've lost four straight. WVU's last 2 road games were both decided by 3 or fewer points, a 2-point loss at Houston and a 3-point win at TCU. UCF coach Malzahn knows that the Mountaineers are going to be tough: "They are No. 7 in the country in time of possession. They run the football, they get off the field, and they are good on third down. They're No. 15 in the country in penalties, so they are a disciplined team." Let's go WVU. *Road Warrior

These teams are on different levels. Every team has had a bad game or two. Buffalo included. The Bills are still a Super Bowl contender. The Bucs can't say the same thing. Tampa is pretty solid on defense. Buffalo is even better. On the offensive side, the Bucs are terrible and the Bills are great. Buffalo averages 28.3 points. Tampa averages 17.2. Speaking of the offense, Josh Allen is 5-0 on Thursday Night Football and he's got a passer rating of 107.7 in those five games! The Bucs, 2-11 ATS their last 13 Thursday games, are only 2-7 ATS their last nine as underdogs. Bills are 10-2 straight-up their last 12 against NFC teams. They'll move to 11-2 by blowing out the Buccaneers on Thursday night. *Hot Route

Really like that the division-leading Lions got crushed yesterday. Combine that with the Packer loss and the Vikings should have a little boost. A win tonight now has them with the second most wins in the division and with the Lions looking vulnerable. San Francisco is good but not invincible. The 49'ers are off a tough loss. They're dealing wih the injuries and playing their second straight on the road. The Vikings are off a win, their second in three games. The lone loss came by a touchdown against the Chiefs. Since a bad New Year's Day loss at Lambeau, the Vikings have played eight games. None of those eight games resulted in a loss of more than 7 points. One big Minnesota win and another Minnesota win by eight points. The other six were all decided by seven or less. Give me the points.

The wins haven't come but the Broncos have shown signs of life. My feeling is that they will break through with a victory this afternoon. The Packers are off back-to-back losses and have dropped three of four. The only win was by a single point. Green Bay coach La Fleur summed it up: "It's just a lot of inconsistent play. It's been very choppy. We haven't been able to get into a consistent rhythm." Wilson has an 0-4 record (54.3 QB rating) at Lambeau but he's 3-0 with a 107.6 QB rating against the Packers at home. Broncos win. *Non-Conf GOW

The Atlanta offense is showing real signs of life and we can expect Desmond Ridder to pick up his first road win. The result was disappointing but the Falcons dominated time of possession and racked up more than 400 yards against Washington. They had a 25-12 edge in first downs and outgained the Commanders 402-193! They also statistically dominated Houston the previous game. My feeling is that Atlanta is a team on the rise and that Tampa is likely going the other way. The Bucs got dominated last game and their only home win was against the Bears. Tampa is 2-5-1 ATS its last eight as a home favorite of a field goal or less. Atlanta is 3-1 ATS its last four as a road underdog of a field goal or less. Grab the points. *NFC South GOY

The Rebels have been lining the pockets of bettors this season. That comes to an end Saturday. UNLV's ATS success has led to us getting extra line value with Colorado State. The Rams have beaten UNLV four straight times. They're 17-3 the past 20 meetings. Two of those three Rebel wins were by only a field goal. Not only is this always a difficult opponent for the Rebels but this is also a challenging scheduling spot. They just beat instate rival Nevada and they've got a big showdown against Fresno State up next. That game is a big deal due to both teams having such strong records. The Rams have won 3 of 4 and just beat Boise last game. Rebels 3-6-1 ATS last 10 as a home fav in the -7.5 to -10 range. Give me the points. *MWC GOY

Catching points with the superior team in this one. Baylor's only road game resulted in an outright win at UCF. Cincinnati is 2-6 ATS its last eight as a home favorite of three or less and 1-4 ATS its past five when the line fell in the +3 to -3 range. Baylor is 10-5 ATS its last 15 as an underdog, 4-1 ATS its last five as a road underdog of three or less. All four covers were outright wins. Cincinnati has last four straight and is 0-4 ATS its last four when off a conference loss. Grab the points. *Eye Opener

Though I respect South Alabama, I can't pass up grabbing all the points with the visiting Golden Eagles. USM was winning into the fourth quarter of last year's game and lost by 7. With the exception of a blowout loss at Florida State, no team has beaten Southern Miss by more than 18. The other four losses have come by an average of less than 11. The Jaguars haven't impressed in their two games. They lost outright against CMU and they beat an FCS opponent, Southeastern Louisiana, by 18. That game was tied at halftime. The Jaguars only 2-7 ATS the last nine times that they were off a conference victory. Give me USM.

In my opinion, the Saints are legit. They humiliated Bill Belichick and the Patriots. The 34-0 shellacking was the worst home loss, under Belichick. The defense was stellar, as it has been all season. Carr was clicking and Kamara found the end zone. That formula will serve them well against Houston. The Texans have had two big wins but they've also had two double-digit losses. They lost a close one at Atlanta last game. Now they are back home where they are only 3-15-1 their last 19. The Saints defense, better against both the run and the pass and allowing just 15 points per game, will be the difference. *Road Warrior

I wasn't at all surprised that the Bengals beat Arizona last week. It was a break-out game for Burrow, Chase and the Bengal offense. On the other side, the defense also elevated its play. Cincinnati will carry that confidence into Sunday afternoon's home game against Seattle. The Seahawks are off a bye. That's not always helpful! The Seahawks are 0-2 ATS their last 2 off a bye. Long-term? They're 12-23 ATS with a push, the last 36 times they were off a bye. Even off the bye, the Hawks aren't entirely healthy. The Bengals have won 15 of their last 21 home games and we don't have to worry about laying a big number. Arizona was a losing team but the Bengals are also 16-4 straight-up and 15-5 against the spread against winning teams. They''ll get back to .500 and add to those stats Sunday afternoon. *NFL GOY

Grabbing points with the Bruins. The Beavers are a good team and I know they've got a great home record. UCLA remains under-rated though. The Beavers allow 19.7 points each game. OSU has given up 38 or more points in two of their last three games.The Bruins only allow 12.2. No team has scored more than 17 against them. That makes it difficult to beat the Bruins by more than a field goal. Grab the points with the better defense! *Pac 12 GOM

I feel that Fresno State is a far stronger team than Utah State. Both teams score but the Bulldogs also prevent teams from scoring. They allow an average of 18.2 points each game. The Aggies give up 32.2 points per game, a full extra two touchdowns. The Bulldogs have covered six of the past 10 as road favorites. A well-coached team, the Bulldogs are also 3-0 against the spread the past three times they were off a conference loss. They'll win this game by a touchdown or more. *MWC GOW

The last two seasons have seen the Chiefs go 3-7 against the spread in Week 5 to Week 9. KC will have its hands full. The loss to the Jets was costly but Denver has shown signs of life in back-to-back games. As bad as the Broncos record is, they've been competitive in every game but one. The loss to Miami was ugly but the all four of the other games were decided by 10 or less, three of them by three or less. The Chiefs have also been playing close games. They messed up Chicago but their other four games were all decided by eight points or less. Four of the past five meetings were decided by six or less including each of the past three. This will be another close one. Grab all those points! *Thursday Night Football GOM

I was against the Raiders last week, when they lost their road game versus the Chargers. At home against a Green Bay team which looked terrible last week, Las Vegas will achieve a more favorable result. I happily cashed my ticket against them but the Raiders did some things that impressed me. They finished the game with more first downs (22-16) than the Chargers, as well as an advantage in terms of time of possession. That was with a rookie, making his first start at QB. Now the Raiders get Garoppolo back. Jimmy said this: "Feeling good. I think we're in a good spot. We had a good practice out there, had a good rhythm and a good tempo to us." Remember that Garoppolo has former Packer Davante Adams to throw to and that the star receiver tends to thrive under the national spotlight. Facing his old team, don't be surprised when Adams becomes the first player in NFL history to go over 100 receiving yards five times in a row on Monday night. That will pave the way to a Raider victory. *MNF GOM

Are the Bengals as bad as they've looked? Are the Cardinals as good as they've looked? My answer to both questions is "No." It's my belief that those answers will become clear this afternoon and that the Bengals will take advantage of a less talented opponent. They didn't show it at Tennessee last week but the Bengals have been true road warriors. They're 17-7 ATS their last 24 away from Cincinnati, 4-2 ATS as road favorites. Bengals are better on both sides of the ball. Lay the small number. *Road Warrior

Baltimore crushed Cleveland last week. Pittsburgh got pounded by Houston. So, why play on the Steelers? The NFL is a funny league and it's important not to over-react to the previous week's games. It's also important to understand that those results are helping to get us some extra points with Pittsburgh. The fact is that the Ravens are now playing their second straight divisional road game and third divisional road game in the past four weeks. Their injuries are mounting, too. Even with the win over the Browns, they're still an awful 9-17 ATS their last 26 as favorites. After their previous divisional road win, the Ravens lost outright to the Colts in their next game. The Steelers are 15-10 ATS as underdogs, during the same time period. Tomlin's team responded to it first loss by bouncing back with an upset of a divisional rival. The plan is for Pittsburgh to win this game outright. Getting points in this rivalry is always nice though. The last four meetings were all decided by three or less! The last six meetings were all decided by five or less. In what will likely be another close encounter, grab the points. *AFC North GOY

This game is essentially a must win for the Horned Frogs, if they want to stay in the hunt in the Big 12. For such a situation, the Frogs draw the perfect opponent. The Cyclones had a really good defense last year. TCU still dropped 62 points on them! This year's Iowa State defense isn't nearly as talented. The offense is punchless, too. Remember that the Cyclones got hit by scandal before the season. That's had a negative impact on them. The Frogs have had trouble here in the past but that will change Saturday. TCU still has a talented defense. In four games since the Colorado debacle, the Frogs are allowing an average of 15 points. ISU will have trouble scoring. TCU (34.8 ppg) should have no problem doing so. The Cyclones were shredded for 50 points and more than 500 yards last week. They're now 2-6-1 ATS their last nine as underdogs. The Frogs, 5-1-1 ATS their last seven as road favorites, will be too much for their hosts. A motivated TCU team puts it all together and wins by double-digits. *Big 12 GOY

Things haven't gone well for the Golden Eagles but this is an OId Dominion team which they can handle. They may have struggled in the underdog role but the Golden Eagles are 7-3 ATS, 8-2 SU the last 10 times that they were favored. ODU is 4-8 ATS last 12 times line ranged from -3 to +3. The Monarchs are just 9-25 their last 34 games in the month of October. This is not a strong ODU team. Now in the Sun Belt, the Golden Eagles and Monarchs met twice when they were in CUSA. The home team won both. The home team will win again on Saturday.

The Gamecocks have the better record. Yet, the Blue Raiders are favored. Given that setup, it's not all that surprising that money came in on the underdog which brought the line down a little. Middle Tennessee was installed as the favorite for a reason, as this is a good matchup for the Blue Raiders.

The Gamecocks are 1-1 on the road. They got beaten badly at Coastal Carolina and they needed OT to win at Sam Houston State. That came against the BearKats who were previously 0-3 and had been scored only 10 points, while giving up 65. Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium is a far more difficult venue.

Look for the Blue Raiders to play their best game as they bounce back and improve to 6-3 ATS the past nine times that they were coming off a conference loss. *CUSA GOY

Both teams are 1-2. The winner will be back in the thick of things. The loser will be in big trouble. It's my opinion that the Chargers are the real deal and that the Raiders are not. Chargers lost a pair of close ones and easily could have won both. Raiders got destroyed last road game and followed it up by losing to Pittsburgh in primetime. LA is much better offensively. Chargers averaging 416.7 yards per game. Raiders averaging 287.7. Chargers averaging 28.7 points, Raiders averaging 15. Problem for the Raiders is that the Chargers are probably also better defensively. Then, there's the Raiders QB issues with Jimmy G in concussion protocol. Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels commented: We're at the mercy of the testing and all the rest of it. He'll go through the normal set of tests. We'll see if he clears." Garoppolo may well play. Even if he does, or if its Hoyer or O'Connell, it's not going to make a difference. Chargers big. *AFC West GOY

With essentially no pointspread to worry about, we can just focus on picking the winner. With that being the case, I'll gladly back Illinois. The Boilermakers did win at Virginia Tech. That's not as impressive as it sounds though. The Hokies aren't very strong this season. Since then, the Boilermakers have suffered b2b blowout losses. This is an inexperienced team with a coach in his first year. After Purdue scored the big upset at Champlain last year, the visitor is 4-1 SU and ATS in this series. Bret Beilema knows how costly last year's loss to the Boilermakers was. He can't afford to let the same thing happen. The Illini are 8-3 ATS their last 11 on the road. They'll build momentum off last week's victory and avenge last year's loss. *Big Ten GOY

Gophers happy to be home after dropping b2b road games. They're 2-0 here with wins over Eastern Michigan and Nebraska. They beat EMU by 19 as 20-point favorites. This line is much lower than that one but the Gophers are fully capable of winning by at least that many again. Cajuns are playing their third road game in four weeks and facing their toughest opponent yet. It will catch up with them. Expect the Gophers' advantages to be clearly evident and for them to improve to 12-8 ATS (18-2 SU) the last 20 times that they were home chalk of -10 to -14.5 points. *12 ET Blowout

I always like getting points with the superior team. Even more when my team is playing at home. These teams are both new to the Big 12 this season. Both came up short in their conference opener. The ground game may have struggled but the Cougar passing attack is clicking on all cylinders. Expect another big day through the air against an inexperienced and vulnerable Bearcat secondary. This is not an easy place to play. The Cougars have outscored opponents 41-15 in going 2-0 here so far. They're 11-3 straight-up their last 14 here, 3-0 when the total fell in the 42.5 to 49 range. The Bearcats have played pretty well but they're still a team which lost a lot from last year and which has a new coach. It catches up with them in Provo, Fright night. BYU scores the minor upset in its Big 12 home opener! *Big 12 GOM

The Steelers looked better than the Raiders last week. They were at home for the second straight week though. The Raiders were playing a road game against one of the best team's in the NFL, their second straight on the road. This time, it's the Raiders who will benefit from being at home. The Raiders are 4-1 ATS the past five instances where they were home favorites of three or less. During that time, the Steelers are 2-3 ATS when off a divisional win. Off their win over the Browns and playing on a short week (Remember, Pittsburgh's last game was on MNF.) the Steelers will struggle. They won a close on against the Raiders at Pittsburgh last meeting but the Raiders are still 5-1 ATS the past six meetings. They'll be fired up for the home opener and will come away with the win and cover. *NFL GOW

The talent gap between these teams is a lot less than many realize. A few weeks ago, Pittsburgh might have been favored for this game. The Tar Heels are tough but the Panthers are better than their 1-2 record suggests. Speaking of Pittsburgh's 1-2 w/l mark, the Tar Heels are 0-6 ATS The past six times that they faced a team with a losing record. The Panthers gave the Tar Heels all that they could handle each of the past two meetings here. Both went to OT. Both were won by Pitt. In fact, the home team is 4-0 ATS the past four in the series. With the Tar Heels just 3-9 ATS the past 12 times that they were road favorites in the 9.5-12 range, grab the points with the home underdog Panthers. *ACC GOY

The line on Michigan should be higher. The Knights have fared well against lesser competition but this is a massive step up in class, one which they will not be ready for. Rutgers has been favored in its first three games. The Knights are just 5-10-1 ATS their last 16 as underdogs though. Once the Wolverines got rolling in last year's game, they outscored Rutgers by a 38-0 margin in the second half. The problem for the Knights is that they are ra running team and they are forced to abandon the run after they fall behind. Back to the line: the Wolverines are 5-2 ATS the past seven times that they were favored by 21.5 to 24 points. This has been a good role for them. They're also 14-6 ATS their last 20 conference games. Wolverines win big!

Home field means a lot for both of these squads. The Broncos won 35-13 on the blue turf last year. However, the last time (2021) the teams played here at San Diego, the Aztecs won 27-16. Including those results, SDSU is 6-2 ATS when facing Boise in MWC play. The Broncos are loaded on offense but a little inexperienced on defense. Through three games, they're allowing 30.7 ppg. They got crushed in their only road game this season. In fact, they're only 1-2 overall. The Aztecs 13-5 SU L3 years at home, are 6-1 their last seven against teams with a losing record. Granted, the Broncos aren't a typical losing team. my point is that they haven't yet hit their stride though, their only win coming at home against North Dakota. Going through a tough scheduling stretch, the Aztecs know they need to step up and score an upset. This one should be close. Grab the points!

The road team has enjoyed recent success in this series. That will change Thursday night though. The Chanticleers didn't just win last year's game, (at Georgia State) they dominated the Panthers. A 272-78 advantage on the ground and a 268-231 edge through the air. Time of possession was more than 40 mins for Coastal Carolina and less than 20 for Georgia State. This year's Chanticleers are even stronger on defense. Having already played at UCLA, the Chanticleers are battle-tested. They held their own for much of that game (1 point game in 4th quarter) and dominated their next two opponents. The Panthers haven't been tested yet. They've got an inexperienced offensive line and that will catch up with them against their first difficult opponent. Chanticleers are 10-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in September last few years. They're also 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS on Thursday football. Superior defense, homefield and an advantage in the trenches leads to another big win for Coastal Carolina!

The Saints and Panthers meet up in a key NFC South match up. If last week is anything to go by, the Saints will rely on the arm of Carr to put up points, hopefully more than last week's 16.  For the Panthers, it will be all about the run as newbie QB Young looks like he will need some time to adjust.  Both of these teams faced run-heavy teams in game one.  The Saints held King Henry to 4.3/63 yards. Carolina allowed 130 yds rushing to the Falcons. The Saints pass defense ate up Tannehill and Co. last week.  Facing rookie Bryce Young, who finished with a passer rating of under 50, it will be no contest.  The Panthers allowed Ridder a 111 rating, even when sacking him 4 times.

Carr looked effective if turnover-prone, throwing for 282 passing yards, with a Passer Rating of 96.  He was harried especially in the first half, but put up impressive totals in yards if not points none the less.  The Saints will have to improve on passer protection as Carr was sacked 4 times. He has very good targets this year, including a very speedy rookie in Shaheed.  With Carolina missing a key CB in Horn, the Saints will be able to move the ball in the air effectively.  It is hard to see where Carolina's points will come from on Sunday.  New Orleans gave up zero rush and pass TDs last week, and this is not a strong offense. The favored Saints should win and cover in Prime Time on Monday night.

Tua is the talk of the town after that massive pass attack in Week one.  The Dolphins will face a much tougher defense on Sunday and he is unlikely to get as much time or as little pressure in Week two.  Let's bear in mind that the Dolphins barely won the game, had little running game and the defense really struggled, especially vs the run.  New England's offense including Jones, impressed in week one.  They were unlucky to lose against a tough Eagles team, but as far as Jones' passing game goes, I am still not sold.  Is the Dolphins' defense really as poor as they looked in week one? They were projected to be much improved this year. I believe that adjustments can and will be made, but they are up against Belichik who will have a very considered game plan.  The Dolphins are a small favorite today.  The Patriots' offense does not have the dynamism of the Chargers and with Tua healthy and his fine targets ready, the Dolphins can really score in a hurry.   I believe the Dolphins offense will be very tough to slowdown this early in the season.  Take Miami  to  win and cover.

As dominant as the Rams were in game one vs the Seahawks, their chances of upsetting the 49ers are slim.  Stafford had a field day vs Seattle but was very well protected (0 sacks).  It is highly unlikely that Stafford will have near as much time to operate on Sunday.  The Rams again don't appear to be focusing on the run again this year, and even if they did, SF is very tough on the ground.  The 49ers had 5 sacks last week, and Stafford is not the most mobile of passers.  Purdy, on the other hand, saw a lot of TJ Watt last week, was sacked 3 times, but he still finished with a very solid game, ending with a 111 passer rating.  Purdy has, as we know, great targets,and he put to rest some of the concerns about his success this year. The 49ers ran for 144 yards with McCaffrey leading the way.  He has been a huge thorn in the side of the Rams in past meetings.  The lack of a Rams run game, and the toughness and skill of the 49ers as a complete entity will be more than the Rams can handle.  Look for SF to  give Purdy better protection, and take SF to win and cover.

The Packers appeared the more impressive team in Week One, but played against an arguably weaker opponent and may have key players sitting this week. Both young QBs ended with solid ratings.  Ridder was accurate, but relied heavily on a very short game with just 91 yards passing.  The Falcon's' O line did not support him well, allowing four sacks, but is a good bet for improvement in Game 2.  Love looked very good in the second half, had plenty of time, but completed just 55% of his passes.  He will face much more pressure this week from Atlanta's defense. The Falcons  effectively shut down the Panthers' pass attack, albeit against a rookie QB, last week.

The Falcons' run-centric offense with Allgeier and Robinson was very effective last week (130 yards rushing/ 5 yards per carry)  The Packers weren't great against the run, allowing the Bears 122 yards and 4.2 yards per attempt.  The potential loss or compromise  of Green Bay's RB Jones is very significant.  He was the driving force last week for the Packers and won't easily be replaced, as Dillon was ineffective last week.  This could be a very close game, but Packers' injuries  and the Falcons' new and improved defense will make the difference.  take the Falcons to win and cover.

Tennessee is ranked No. 11 in the country at 2-0, while the Florida Gators enter at 1-1. Tennessee is off ht 30-13 win over FCS Opponent Austin Peay, not even coming close to covering the ridiculous 48-point spread.

Florida is also off a blowout win over an FCS Opponent, smashing McNeese State by a score of 49-7 as a 48.5-point favorite.

These teams met last year and the Vols managed the 38-33 shootout win at home, but now it's payback time for the Gators. That said, while I do think an outright win is possible, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can.

Tennessee is led by Joe Milton, who has 429 yards passing and 4:0 TD:INT so far. But the Vols looked poor defensively overall to a weak team, allowing 260 passing yards to Austin Peay. 

Florida finished with 327 yards on the ground last week. QB Graham Mertz has two passing TD's so far. The Gators' defense has been great, so far allowing 191 YPG. 

Milton has never lived up to expectations throughout his now six year career, and I think he'll struggle to cover this spread.

Grab the points, the play is Florida.

UTSA won this game by a score of 41-38 in OT last year, barely covering the two-point spread. Here we are a year later and the Roadrunners are much bigger favs, but not nearly big enough in my opinion. 

Army lost 17-13 to Louisiana Monroe, and then followed it up with a 57-0 win over FCS Delaware State. The Black Knights though have more questions than answers still. 

The Roadrunners started the year with a 17-14 loss to Houston, before then responding with the 20-13 win over Texas State in Week 2. 

UTSA starting QB Frank Harris could be sidelined with injury in this one, but even if he is out I still like the home side to not only win this matchup, but to do so in blowout fashion. The Roadrunners looked sharp on defense last week, holding Texas State to just 242 yards of offense. The defense also looked great in the loss to Houston, and I believe the unit will be the difference-maker in this one.

It's "Next Man Up" for the Roadrunners, and I expect everyone else to help shoulder the load as well here.

Lay the points, the play is UTSA.

The Eagles won unconvincingly in week one vs the Patriots.  The Vikings stumbled to a loss against a projected weaker opponent in the Bucs in their first game.  The Vikings put up a ton of passing yards, as usual, but weren't great in the red zone and gave up the ball three times.  They barely attempted a run game, finishing with just 41 yds on 17 attempts.  A one dimensional offense will be an issue against the Eagles' likely formidable pass pressure.  Philadelphia will be down a running back, but do have other options including, of course, Hurts.  The Vikings project to be a much softer defense than the Eagles' Game One opponent.  The Vikings allowed 25 points last week and Hurts and the Eagles will be a large step up from Mayfield's Buccaneer offense.  Cousins is notorious for poor play in the limelight.  Much like last year, the Eagles, after an underwhelming game one, again face  the Vikings at home.  Look for a similar outcome as the Eagles win and cover.

The Seahawks, off a fine training camp, face the Rams, without Cupp at home.  The Seahawks are a young Carroll-lead team who essentially rebuilt the defense, especially vs the run, their Achilles heel last year. Look for much improved performance on D with another season under the belt for last year's rookies , plus additions including a Bobby Wagner reunite.  Geno Smith impressed last year, especially in the early season.  While I am not as big on Smith as many seem to be, he has fine targets, including a potentially great rookie as a third WR.  With Walker playing and Charbonnet, we could see more of a run game from the Seahawks this season.  The Rams defense is centered on Donald, but after him, it is very much depleted.  This is a team that gave up 41 points to the Broncos in an albeit meaningless preseason game last week.  Stafford, when he played last year, was lost without Cupp.  The Rams' best bet will be to test the new Seahawks run defense, but I don't see them putting up many points on Sunday.  Look for Seattle, at home, to win and cover easily.

The Cardinals in absolute rebuild mode, are without their starting QB, did not add to last year's dismal pass defense, and have 11 rookies on the roster.  Dobbs will likely start under center, so expect a run-focused offense from the Cardinals.  Meanwhile the Commanders have a sold out opener,  3 straight victories in preseason, if you are counting, and a projected very tough defense.  Washington doesn't yet know what they have in Howell but the 2nd year pro is very mobile  at least, and he has great targets, especially if McLaurin is playing.  At their best last year, the Commanders ground out wins with a relentless rush offense, but very little dynamism in the air. Howell, while remaining a question mark,  looks to be an improvement.  The Commanders' defense especially  the pass rush will over-match the Cardinal' shaky offense on Sunday.  Take Washington, with the crowd, to win and cover.

Texas beat Rice 37-10 in its opener last week. Last year the Longhorns went 8-5 overall, including just 2-2 on the road. Texas though is favored to win the Big 12 conference title this season. The Crimson Tide enter 1-0 as well after handling MTSU last week. Alabama is predicted to finish second to Georgia in the SEC this year. That said, Bama was 11-2 last year, including 7-0 at home. This is obviously a huge game, as this is the type of victory that will really help the resume at the end of the year when it comes to the CFP. I just think that Quinn Ewers will have some opportunities to keep his team competitive throughout. The defense will be better this year than last as well with the majority of the unit returning which finished second overall in the Big 12 last year. QB Jalen Milroe has big shoes to fill for the Tide. He had 242 yards and five TD's last week. The defense is once again a strength as well, but there's still some question marks surrounding this year's version of the Tide. I'm not calling for an outright upset, but I think this one "comes down to the wire." Grab the points and Texas.

The Aggies are 1-1, while Liberty is 1-0. Last year New Mexico State was 7-6, while the Flames finished 8-5. 

The Aggies are coming off a 58-21 win over Western Illinois, and I think they can carry that momentum over here. I'm not calling for an outright upset or anything, but everything points to a tight battle here in my opinion (they had 438 yards of offense in the second half alone!) Diego Pavia had 317 yards passing and two TD's. 

Liberty managed the 34-24 win over Bowling Green, but I believe it'll have a much harder time containing the visiting side today. QB Kaidon Salter finished with 143 yards passing and two TD's. 

The Flames had five INT's, but everything points to a much more competitive affair here between conference opponents. 

New Mexico State won this game 49-14 last year. I'm not calling for the outright as I said, but I'm definitely grabbing the points!

WMU enters 1-1, as does Syracuse. Cleary, I'm not calling for an outright upset or anything, but I do think the Orange will take the foot off the gas in the second half, leaving the back door open for the Broncos to comfortably sneak in through down the stretch.

WMU beat FCS St. Francis 35-17 in its opener, while Syracuse hammered FCS Colgate 65-0. 

I just think the Broncos run game can chew up enough clock here to keep the visitors competitive late. Last week the unit posted 339 yards. QB Jack Salopek had 170 yards and a TD. Jalen Buckley stole the show though with 194 rushing yards. The defense also looked decent in conceding 280 yards. 

Syrcause QB Garrett Schrader had 257 passing yards and four TD's. The defense looked good, but clearly the numbers on both sides of the field are "skewed." 

With a game at Purdue next weekend, followed by Clemson, I say the home side gets caught "looking ahead" in the second half. Grab the points, the play is Western Michigan.

Purdue got upset by Fresno State last weekend, and I think it'll struggle again here on the road in this difficult venue. 

Virginia Tech beat ODU 36-17 and in my opinion, the Hokies are going to move to 2-0 after this contest. 

But the Boilermakers were just a complete mess, losing the battle of the clock by 13 minutes, while going just 3 of 12 on third down. QB Hudson Card was inept, averaging just 3.6 yards on 30 attempts.

VT QB Grant Wells had three passing TDs and one running TD last week, and I believe he'll be a difference-maker this weekend. 

Not only do I expect VT to win this game, but I believe it'll do so in blowout fashion.

The Utah Utes are 1-0 after Week 1, while the Baylor Bears are 0-1. 

The Bears were stunned by Texas State, while Utah pulled away for a victory over Miami. 

Utah QB Cameron Rising did not play in last week's 24-11 home win. Bryson Barnes was adequate in filling in, finishing with 159 yards and a TD. The ground game managed only 105 rushing yards.

The defense looked good, and last year the unit allowed 24 points. 

Baylor though will be pushing the pace of this one from the outset after the 42-31 ssetback to Texas State. QB Blake Shapen was inured, meaning that QB Sawyer Robertson will now get the start here. He'll be leaning heavily on the run game and Richard Reese, who averaged 4.9 YPC last season. Baylor's defense was also decent last year, ranked 80th overall in the country by allowing 26.6 PPG. 

I think we'll see a much tighter game than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Grab the points, the play is Baylor.

Both teams enter 1-0 SU and 0-1 ATS. Illinois is coming off a 30-28 win over Toledo, while Kansas defeated Missouri State 48-17. Illinois was a 7-point favorite, while the Jayhawks were 32.5-point favorites. Illinois had the nation's No. 1 defense last year, but the unit just conceded 28 to Toledo, but we can expect a more solid performance this time around. Illinois had a lot of turnover, but with that first game out of the way, combined with a win, I think they keep the momentum rolling here. Luke Altmyer finished with 211 yards and two TD's. Jalon Daniels sat out last week, but he's expected back in the lineup for the Jayhawks this week, but he'll need time to adjust. Defense is an issue for the Jayhawks, last year they allowed 35.5 PPG, worst in the Big 12. While I do think an outright win is possible, in the end I'm grabbing the points.

The Chiefs have now won the Super Bowl in two out of the last four years and I think they carry over that momentum here on Opening night. The Lions took a big step forward last year and the expectations could not be higher in Detroit. 

Of these two teams though, it's the Lions that I feel could suffer a big letdown this year. 

There are still plenty of question marks about this Detroit defense, and despite Patrick Mahomes having some new faces in his offense, I just can't see the Chiefs floundering here on Opening Night. In fact, I expect the opposite, as they look to run up the score early and take control of this one from the "get go." 

With back-to-back home games after this vs. Seattle and Atlanta, I say Detroit gets caught looking ahead. 

Lay the points, the play is KC.

Clemson didn't lose a single ACC game last year, bu it lost non-conference matchups vs. Notre Dame, South Carolina and then it also lost to Tennessee in the Orange Bowl. 

Duke was no slouch either though last season, finishing 9-4, capped off with a win over UCF in the Military Bowl. 

Clemson is a powerhouse and Cade Klubnik now has big shoes to fill. He has plenty of weapons though, but I just feel that Duke will be able to keep pace and stay competitive late.

I'm not calling for the outright upset, but with Mike Elko directing the show for Duke, I absolutely don't expect this to be a "cake walk" for the visiting side.

Riley Leonard is an exceptional and versatile QB and I think he'll be a difference-maker here on Monday night.

As stated above, no outright win, but this is a few too many points for Clemson to be covering out of the gate vs. such a talented conference oppoent.

Grab the points, the play is Duke.