South Carolina is now ranked after wins against Kentucky and Texas A&M. Kentucky did not have its starting quarterback and A&M got itself into an early 17-0 hole. But even after being up three scores just a couple minutes into the game, the Gamecocks could not pull away last week. They were outgained by more than 100 yards. 

Missouri should have won at Florida and Auburn. They stayed within four points of Georgia. Last week saw them finally break back into the win column, beating Vanderbilt 17-14. As 14-point favorites in that game, the TIgers obviously didn’t cover. But now we’re getting them as underdogs.

There’s a lot to like about the Mizzou defense. Over the previous five games, they’ve allowed less than 100 points. No one has scored more than 26. 

The last three times these teams played, Missouri has gone 3-0 SU and ATS. They went off as the favorite each time. This will be the first time South Carolina has been favored over Missouri since 2016.

An obvious letdown spot for the Gamecocks after their first ever win over Texas A&M. They are 1-5 ATS L6 and 0-3 L3 as a ranked team. Missouri is better than its record and its defense can keep SC (just 286 yards last week) in check. Grab the points. 

California has been very good as an underdog under Justin Wilcox. The Bears have covered 17 of the 20 times they’ve gotten 7 points or more from the oddsmakers. Overall, Wilcox boasts a 23-9-1 ATS record when catching points. He’s won 13 of those games outright, covered four straight times as a home dog and three straight times as a double digit dog. 

His team covered last week as a dog, only losing by 7 to Washington. That was also here in Berkeley. Earlier in the day, Oregon posted its signature win of the season, holding off UCLA 45-30 in Eugene. Does that result make this a bit of a letdown spot for the Ducks? Probably.

Cal has lost three straight and four of five. But only one of those losses was by greater than seven points. 

Oregon’s pass defense also isn’t great. You may not have noticed with all the points the offense has put up. But I expect Cal to put a decent number of points on the board. In two previous road games, the Ducks allowed a combined 63 points. They lost their last trip into Berkeley (back in 2020). 

The Cal defense is not bad! They held Washington without a touchdown for two-and-a-half quarters last week. Grab the points.

Rice had a 5-game ATS win streak snapped last week. They still won the game, 42-41 at Louisiana Tech, but were 2.5-point favorites. It was the first time all season that the Owls were favored to defeat a FBS opponent. Yet surprisingly, they come into this game with Charlotte sporting a 4-3 SU record.

Now the Owls are favored again, only this time by three scores. If you can’t remember the last time Rice was a favorite of this size, let me help you out. It was last year against Texas Southern. They were -34 and only won 48-34. Before that, it was the 2018 season opener against Prairie View A&M. They were -19 and won just 31-28. It’s been a very long time since a Rice team was a favorite of this size over a non-FCS team.

So who is Rice playing this week? That would be Charlotte, who is coming off a loss to FIU that got their head coach fired. The 49ers were actually a double digit favorite last week (-14) but turned it over five times in the 34-15 loss. You can’t say a lot of positive things about this Charlotte team. But they do bring the element of surprise with a new head coach into this game.

Recently, we’ve seen several schools turn in inspired efforts following a coaching change. Arizona State, Georgia Tech, Colorado and WIsconsin all won their first games. All but Wisconsin were underdogs. 

But at the end of the day, this is a clear fade on Rice. They shouldn’t be favored by this many points against anybody. Not even Charlotte.

This is a rough spot for Syracuse, who last week suffered their first loss of the season (at Clemson) and also probably saw their ACC Championship hopes go out the window as well.

The Orange had been favored in five of their first six games. But still it was a surprise to see them 6-0 and ranked #14 in the country heading into Death Valley last week It was a close game they ended up losing 27-21, but it seems pertinent to mention that ‘Cuse got outgained 450-291 and was -10 in first downs. If not for four Clemson turnovers, it probably wouldn’t have been much of a game.

Notre Dame started the year ranked in the Top 5. However, three losses have them out of the Top 25  entirely. The Fighting Irish are the only team in the country to lose two different games as a double digit favorite (Marshall, Stanford). Their other loss came in the opener at Ohio State. Nothing wrong with that one. The Irish even led 10-7 at the half in Columbus. It was a four-point game late into the fourth quarter. 

In terms of margin of victory, last week was Notre Dame’s biggest win of the season. They beat UNLV 44-21. But they didn't cover the 26-point spread. Now as an underdog though, they are worth backing. The Fighting Irish are 12-3 ATS the last 15 games against Top 25 opponents, including 2-0 this season. Wins over North Carolina and BYU were more impressive than they look, just judging from the final score. 

This will be the first time these teams have played since 2003. I expect ND to run the ball effectively. Since the start of 2020, no team in the country has a better ATS road record than the Fighting Irish, who are 8-2. They have covered each of the last three times as a road underdog. 10*

TCU lucked out with Kansas State having to use three different quarterbacks last week. At home, the Horned Frogs battled back from a 28-10 deficit to get the win and cover as 3.5-point chalk. But this is going to be the sixth straight Saturday TCU has been on the field. Four of the previous five have been close. Can they stay undefeated? Possibly. But I don’t like them laying this many points in Morgantown. 

West Virginia, the last time they played in Morgantown, beat Baylor 43-40. That’s the only time they’ve played at Neyland Stadium since mid-September. This will be the first Saturday game in Morgantown since 9/17.  Things got bad in a 38-10 loss last week at Texas Tech. But I believe that sets us up to get a great value here on the Mountaineers. 

I know that the WVU defense isn’t great. But TCU’s offense is coming off a stretch of five games where they had to come from behind to win three different times. They are just the second team since 1996 to come back from a 17-point deficit in consecutive weeks against Top 25 opponents. 

Plus, I’ve got to mention all the backup quarterbacks the Horned Frogs have gotten to face. Each of their last four games have seen the opponents’ starting QB get injured! 

Sonny Dykes has traditionally not fared well when his teams are ranked, on the road and facing an unranked opponent. He is only 1-10 ATS in that spot. West Virginia is on a 4-1 ATS run vs. Top 25 teams. TCU has also lost the last four meetings to WVU and failed to cover six straight. 

This is a tough trip for East Carolina, heading West for a non-conference game. The last two weeks have seen the Pirates win a 4 OT game over Memphis and then clobber Central Florida. This will be the Pirates’ ninth straight game without a bye. How much are they going to have left in the tank? 

BYU, on the other hand, is desperate for a win. They have lost four of their six games and just got embarrassed 41-14 at Liberty. They have failed to cover the spread in six consecutive contests. 

By virtue of being an independent, BYU plays a tough schedule. So far they have faced Baylor, Oregon, Notre Dame and Arkansas. ECU has played only one P5 team and that resulted in a one-point home loss to NC State. 

Because of Hurricane Ian rescheduling a game vs. USF, East Carolina has only had to play one true road game thus far. They lost it, 24-9 at Tulane. Don’t discount the high altitude at Provo as being a major factor tonight, in addition to this being a much further trip West than usual for the Pirates. 

Friday night would also seem to be an advantage for the home team. BYU is 5-0 ATS its last five Friday night contests while East Carolina is 1-9 ATS its previous 10. Lay the short number with the desperate home team. The Cougars need this one if they are to become bowl eligible. 10* 

The Bucs may be playing at home, but after their recent performances, the reception may not be all that warm. There is a lot of fault finding going on and much of it is directed towards Brady. He certainly hasn’t stood out in recent games, this against pass defenses no better than the Ravens’. Considering how well protected he is, his stats are far from outstanding. While the Bucs are 6th in pass yards, their yards per attempt and per completion are well down in the leagues’ 20th rank. Brady has an average passer rating of just 87 in the last three games. Tampa Bay has no run game to speak of; they’ve only run on 21% of their plays L3, and are last in rushing yards and yards/attempt. Did I mention they are 26th in points scored?

As for the Ravens’ offense, they are 6th in points scored, and solid in converting third downs. While Jackson’s pass numbers are nothing special, he and the Baltimore backs have run very successfully. And while the offense is definitely run-first, the Ravens at least have a pass attack, decent in yards per attempt and completion, if low in total yards.

On defense, the Buccaneers are still 6th in pass yards allowed but have seen a regression in many defensive categories. They have been relatively easy to run on, horrible defending in the red zone, and seen points allowed climb to a high of 21 against the Panthers last week. Their Qb pressure figures have been good this season, but they managed only 1 sack last week.

As the Bucs’ defense has sunk, there has been a definite improvement in The Ravens’ defense in their last three games, especially in the red zone and in Qb pressure (5 sacks last week and an average of 4 L3 games). The are strong against the run should Tampa make the effort, and improving in pass defense.

I don’t foresee a huge improvement in the Buccaneers’ fortunes this week. The ravens’ offense does not match up well against the Buccaneers’ strengths. Both teams have injuries but Tampa really drew the short straw as far as missing starters goes. Gone too is some of that Buccaneers’ mystique. Losing to two of the worst teams back to back, a sullen and ineffective Brady, and nowevery opposing team out to kick them while they are down, doesn’t bode well for the near future. They say bad things come in threes. Look for another poor game from the Bucs. Take the Ravens on Thursday on Thursday night.

The Broncos, the NFL's whipping boys, face the surprising young Jets at home this week.  Fresh off a big victory against the Packers, the Jets are a much improved club, not just since last year, but since the beginning of the season.  They have put close to double the points on the board than the Broncos over the last three weeks, and allowed less. NY is 8th vs 30th on offense in the red zone.  Their run game has improved dramatically this season.  Their defense over the last three weeks has been a match to a tough Broncos' defense, stronger against the run, and improving against the pass.
The Broncos will be without Wilson this week, and have struggled to protect their passer this season.  Their run game is average and has dropped off since the season's start, and they have been prone to turnovers.  The Broncos' strength is their pass defense; they are 5th in yards allowed, first in yards /completion, and have held passers to a minuscule 75 rating. Did I mention very tough on passers, with a 7.09 sack %?  They may have their hands full against the Jets' run game; the Broncos have allowed 130 yards a game/L3 even with an easy ride vs the Chargers' light run offense last week.  
I am on the Jets this week.  The lines are shifting with the news of Wilson's injury. Hop on this one early.

The Week seven matchup between Detroit and Dallas features the return of Dak Prescott.  Rush was an indifferent fill in, and while the Cowboys stepped up their run game, they have struggled to score points, depending on a very tough defense for their present 4-2 record.  They gave up 26 points against the Eagles, but are otherwise close to the top in points allowed.  They have been reasonably tough to run against, but are very hard on the pass, limiting yards and yds/attempt. They have tenacious skills in pressuring the passer and sport an avg. opposing QB rating of just 78.
The Lions, on average, allow more points than the Cowboys have yet scored this year.  Their offense was very potent until Week Six, when they put no points on the board, and saw their offense stats plummet vs the Patriots.  The Cowboys' defense is a tougher match-up, so points for the Lions may again be scarce.  The Lions' defense is worst or close to in most defensive categories.  They have given up massive rush yards and are ugly across the board against the pass.  The Lions O-line has protected Goff well this season, but this may change on Sunday
Prescott probably couldn't have picked a better game to return.  The Lions don't pressure passers well, so he'll have time to kick out the rust.  The Cowboys are favored by just less than a TD.  Take the Cowboys to win going away and cover.

The Commanders are off a rare win, and with Wentz out, have a capable and more mobile replacement in Heinecke. Neither of these two teams put up a lot of points. Washington is 29th, and has averaged just 13 points L3. The Commmanders’ defense has limited teams to 17 points on average, getting good results with strong passer pressure figures and tough red line defense. They have developed their rush attack, running more often and with better success, but haven’t been able to protect their own passer, have a high number of turnovers, and a low passer rating.

Even with Rodgers at the helm, the Packers are not getting the job done on offense. They are still pass -centric, but Rodger’s targets are not of the usual Green Bay standard, and will be in short supply due to injury today. It has been more peckers than Packers, in the bird sense of the word. They are 27th in yards/completion, and middle of the pack in passing yards, low for a pass first offense. Rodgers has been sacked about as often as anyone, and the Packers turn the ball over an unacceptable number of times.

The Packers have the league’s top pas defense, severely limiting yards, and with a sack % of 9.5. This could be more of a run-first game today, the Packers by necessity and the Commanders by design. It is hard to be bullish on this year’s Commanders, but I like their chances today. They will be very tough on a weak Packers’ O line, limiting points again. Take the Commanders with the points today

You’ve all heard how much trouble Mississippi State has had scoring on Alabama in the past. Over the last 10 meetings, the Bulldogs have been held to single digits (9 pts or less) eight different times by the Crimson Tide defense. The most points MSU scored in any of those games was 24. 

But this isn’t the same Mississippi State offense nor is it the same Alabama defense. The Crimson Tide are wounded right now after losing 52-49 at Tennessee last week. MSU comes in averaging 35.4 points per game.

The Bulldogs also arrive in Tuscaloosa off a loss, 23-13 at Kentucky last week. But in each of the previous three games, they had scored 40 or more. In all five wins this season, they’ve scored at least 39. The two losses have been a different story, but with a generous spread this week, we’re not likely to need a 40-point effort to cover.

Alabama has already been in three games that came down to the final possession, all of them decided by four points or less. Then there’s this stat: Nine of Bama’s last 15 SEC games have been decided by single digits. That’s after the previous 53 saw just 9 such games. 

Saban is being overvalued off a loss here because of what he has done in the past. These teams are a closer than the spread would indicate. I’ve got the underdog comfortably staying within three touchdowns. 10*

Cincinnati is 5-1 all-time vs. SMU and has won all three meetings here in Dallas. With those six games averaging just 53 points, the Under is a perfect 6-0. 

Because of injuries, this could be another low-scoring affair between these teams. But despite being off a bye, Cincinnati, who became the first ever “Group of Five” team to make the College Football Playoff last January, is far more banged up than SMU is entering Saturday.

QB Bryant is dealing with a concussion and may not play. WR Scott is also injured. RB Corey Kiner missed the last game and on the defensive side, LB Pace was “dinged up” after facing USF. 

Now after a season-opening loss at Arkansas, the Bearcats have climbed back into the Top 25 with five consecutive victories. But while four of those have come by double-digits, they’ve been far from dominant. 

In each of the last two games, the Cincy defense has needed a fourth down stop, deep in their own territory, to hold on for the victory. Against USF, who isn’t a good team, the Bearcats were actually trailing in the 4th quarter as a 26.5-point favorite. They were also able to pull away late against Indiana and Miami OH, the latter playing with a backup QB, in games that were closer than the final scores indicated.

Meanwhile, SMU suffered the ultimate “backdoor cover” last Friday against Navy, allowing a TD with just nine seconds left. The Mustangs still won mind you, 40-34, but as 12.5-point favorites it marked the fifth straight game where they failed to cover. 

The fact Cincinnati is off a bye means less with SMU having an extra day to prepare as well. 

The Bearcats have been very lucky so far in that their opponents are a FBS-worst 1 for 11 on fourth down attempts. SMU’s opponents are 11 of 18 on 4th down attempts. That “luck” is probably due to change.

Remember that Cincinnati lost three defensive backs from last year’s CFP squad to the NFL. SMU QB Mordecai is 11th in the FBS in passing yards and should exploit this secondary with or without WR Rice (missed practice on Wednesday).

Finally, Luke Fickell is just 7-12-1 on the road vs. fellow AAC teams. That includes 3-10 ATS as a favorite. Take the points. 10*

Temple was flat out embarrassed last Thursday night, losing at UCF by a score of 70-13. To say that was a shockingly bad performance by the Owls defense might be the understatement of the century. Consider that in the first five games, they’d surrendered less than 15 points/game! Luckily for this week, Temple faces a far less potent offense. 

Tulsa also got its doors blown off in its last game, losing at Navy 53-21. It was the third straight loss for the Golden Hurricane, whose only FBS win this season has been by three points over Northern Illinois. 

The Tulsa defense lost a lot from a season ago, namely nine starters and the coordinator. So it’s not a surprise to see them struggling on that side of the ball. As for Temple, I’m expecting a big bounce back from their previously stout defensive unit, which had been Top 15 in the country in yards per play allowed.

Now, led by QB EJ Warner (the son of Kurt), the Temple offense has been shaky to say the least. But Tulsa would have scored far fewer points themselves this season if not for tremendous red zone efficiency. Moving forward, the Golden Hurricane probably won’t be able to continue scoring TDs inside the 20 at the same rate they have been. 

I just don’t think that Tulsa is the kind of team that can cover a spread like this on the road. They are 0-3 ATS as favorites vs. FBS teams this season with two outright losses. Temple has the better ATS record on Friday nights through the years and is being undervalued in this spot because of the blowout loss it suffered last week. Take the points. 9*

The Saints and Cardinals, a pair of 2-4 underachievers, meet in Arizona in week 7. The Cardinals’ inability to score against a normally weak Seahawks defense last week was a bit of a surprise, although they are just 22nd in points scored, but no Tds against Seattle? The Saints put up 39 the week before. The Cardinals get Hopkins back, but lose Brown at the same time. Murray’s passer rating has averaged in the 80s and hit 64 last week. He did run well, but overall the Cardinals rush attack is exactly average.

The Saint have not struggled to score points this year, it is preventing them that has been the problem, with the 29th points allowed so far this season. This from a team defense that was expected to be top ten this year. The Saints don’t pressure passers much, but have had 13 sacks to date, and they got to Burrows 3 times last week. Arizona has struggled to protect Murray in the last three games, culminating in a 6 sack game in week 6. The Saints will need to be tougher on him and cause a few turnovers; those have been few a nd far between.

The Saints put up monster numbers with the run last week. Kamara has been hot but he isn’t their only option. They would be wise to stick to the running game. The pass attack was very poor last week. It is still unknown who will start on Thursday, but it probably won’t make that much difference.

The Cardinals have struggled at home, and far more resemble the late 2021 team than the early one. Hopkins is a gain but is not going to be a one-person savior of the Cardinals’ problem offense. The Saints still have injury issues on offense but have managed to put up points anyway. Look for them to win or keep this game close. Take the Saints +1 ½.

A much healthier Chargers team meets a struggling Broncos side on MNF.  Wilson is playing hurt and has not shown well to say the least, stumbling out of week five with an ugly 54 passer rating.  The Broncos are 31st in points scored and 32nd in red zone scoring. They've put up some yards but haven't converted on third downs and have no finish. They are 26th in sacks allowed, including 4 last week.
The Broncos defense is nearly the polar opposite; 4th in points allowed and tops in defending in the red zone.  Their run defense is middle of the pack at 14th in rush yards allowed, and 20th in yds/carry, however that pass defense has been very tough on opposing QBs, allowing an average passer rating of just 78.
The Broncos have not yet faced a top level offense this season, but they will on Monday.  Herbert is just hitting his stride, but the curious thing about the Chargers offense was their run game last week, with a huge jump in rush plays and an astounding yards total.  A balance of run and pass will make the Chargers offense even more potent.  The Chargers have been very successful in protecting Herbert this season, and are tops in sacks allowed.  We will see if they can hold off a tough Denver pass defense with 17 sacks and 51 pressures to date.
The Chargers' main issue is defense; they've given up an average of 27 points a game and are just average defending in the red zone.   They allowed a ton of rushing yards in week 5 against Cleveland, but actually out-rushed the Browns in that game.  Wilson will likely have an easier game as the Chargers aren't huge on QB pressure.
The Broncos may limit the Chargers' offense to some degree, but I don't think they will be able to shut it down. Denver may have a modest improvement on offense against a generous Chargers defense, but the Broncos have a long way to climb back to a respectable level. Injuries are probably more severe on the Broncos side. Of note, the Broncos are just about the worst team in the league for penalties. Take the Chargers, at home, to win and cover.

The Bills face the Chiefs at Arrowhead coming in a 2.5 point favorite.  Sure, it is Mahomes vs. Allen, two "pretty good" passers, but defense will decide this game, and on that note the Bills have a huge edge.  Mahomes can maneuver his way out of most situations, but he may have his hands full on Sunday.  A lot of the Chiefs' defense is just being on the field more than the opposition.  While both pass defenses have solid pass pressure stats, the Bills do it with out blitzing much. Looking at other critical pass defense stats the Bills have a huge advantage, but none more explicit that opposing passer rating; the Bills are first with an avg. passer rating of 67, compared to KC's 105.  Buffalo has given up the least points to date, while the Chiefs struggle to 24th.  Rush defense stats for the Chiefs are curious. Nobody runs much against the Chiefs because they are usually playing catch-up. Last week the Raiders put up 155 yards, more than 70 over the Chiefs' average allowed.  The Chiefs are 31st in defending the red zone at this moment.
Home advantage aside, the Bills have known since last year who stands between them and a Super Bowl ring, and have made the critical steps on defense to match up very well against KC.  Take the Bills to win and cover.

The 49ers meet the run-happy Atlanta Falcons at home in week 6.  The Falcons run more than just about anyone and have had some success this season.  They are 4th in rushing yards, 8th in yards/attempt and 4th in rushing first downs.  They'd better be good as it is the only game in town.  The Falcons' pass attack is minimal; 30th in yards and completion %, with a 78 average passer rating.  Mariota has been sacked 12 times, 5 last week alone, with as many picks as TDs to date.  
The 49ers' defense are the Falcons' worst nightmare, with or without Bosa.  They've allowed the least rushing yards and yds/att. Not to mention that they crush pass offenses, are 1st in sack% and hold passers to a 72 rating.  Mariota and the Falcons' offense is likely in for a tough day.
The Falcons middling defense face a very tough 49ers' run game and an improving Garoppolo. He threw for 253 yards, 2 TDs and a 109 rating last week, and now faces an Atlanta pass defense that had no sacks in week 5.  This could be Garoppolo's day to shine.
I am absolutely all in on the 49ers this week.  Run, don't walk,and jump on SF to win and cover.

Going back to 2015, there have been 15 times where a team is 6-0 SU or better and getting points from a team with two or more losses. Those 15 teams have gone just 3-12 straight up. USC qualifies for the situation this week and, based on that history, I’m fading the Trojans in Salt Lake City.

Utah has taken two tough losses, to Florida and UCLA. Both were games where the Utes were favored on the road. At home though, they’ve lost just once in the last 12 tries. This is still a very good football team and obviously one you should respect, based on them being favored here.

USC has played a pretty light schedule so far with the only road games coming at Stanford and Oregon State. They were held to only 17 points and 359 total yards by Oregon State and were probably lucky to win that game. Even last week at the Coliseum, the 30-14 final over Washington State was a tad bit misleading. It was a three-point game deep into the third quarter but Wazzu’s special teams really betrayed them in that game.

Tough to win at Rice-Eccles at night and I just don’t see Utah losing for a third time as a favorite. Turnovers were a real killer against UCLA, but I don’t see that being a problem here. The Utes also have a great secondary, something a team needs to beat USC.

USC is just 3-12 ATS its last 15 games as a road underdog. That's the third worst in the FBS since 2015. Lay the points in this one. 9*

Clemson is #5 in the country while FSU is unranked, but this smells like an outright upset to me. 

Florida State was 4-0 before losing to Wake Forest and NC State the last two weeks. The Seminoles actually owned the edge in yards per play in both games they lost and should have beaten NC State last week. A terrible decision by QB Travis to throw the ball into the end zone, while down two and in field goal range, resulted in an interception and cost the team the game.

Though Clemson is ranked #5 in the country and a perennial power, this doesn’t feel like the same Tigers’ team we saw during all those runs to the College Football Playoff. Remember they needed overtime to win at Wake Forest. It was a one-score game with NC State two weeks ago.

This sets up as a real “fade the public” type game as the majority of bets are on Clemson, but the number has come down (as of Thursday). Regardless of any further line movement, I’m backing the underdog here. 

FSU definitely should have won on the road last week. The chance to end a six-game losing streak to Clemson should have the ‘Noles extra fired up for this Saturday night home game. The defense has been every bit as good as Clemson’s this year while the offense is averaging a full yard per play more than the Tigers. Take the points. 10*

The Big 12’s two remaining unbeatens collide Saturday afternoon in Fort Worth as #15 TCU plays host to #7 Oklahoma State. My view is that the better team is getting points.

Now TCU is playing at home and we have to respect that. But OSU has covered six straight conference road games and beat the Horned Frogs last season by a score of 63-17 (in Stillwater). 

Both teams were involved in close games last week. Oklahoma State ended up beating an aggressive Texas Tech team 41-31 while TCU outlasted Kansas on the road, 38-31. There’s probably going to be a lot of points scored in this one. But look for the Pokes to score more. The TCU defense has been pretty bad when it comes to allowing explosive plays and OSU QB Sanders is completing over 50% of his pass attempts of 20+ yards.

This is a tougher spot for TCU, who goes from playing on the road (where ESPN College Gameday was present) to now playing its first ranked vs. ranked home game in five years. OSU is more accustomed to these games as they were on the cusp of the CFP last year and have averaged nine wins per season over the last decade for head coach Mike Gundy.

I don’t think TCU should be the favorite here, even with homefield advantage. OK State is the better team and has gone 16-2 SU over its last 18 games with the two losses coming by a combined eight points. Gotta take the points here. 10*

How the mighty have fallen! Oklahoma has lost three in a row for the first time since 1998 and they are 0-3 ATS in those three games, missing the spread by a combined 99 points!  Rarely do we see a three-game stretch like that where the oddsmakers got it so wrong.

So it may be surprising to some that OU is favored here over a Kansas team that was unbeaten going into last Saturday. But here me out, who would have ever thought the Sooners would be a single digit favorite in Norman against a team they’ve beaten 17 straight times? Oh, by the way, the Jayhawks just lost their starting QB. 

All of those 17 straight victories have been by double digits. The last seven times these teams have met, Oklahoma has been favored by at least 32 points. 

Now this is a better Kansas team than usual. But losing QB Daniels is a massive blow to their season. The Jayhawks’ defense also isn’t very good, having allowed a total of 148 points the last five games.

Oklahoma expects to have its starting QB Dillon Gabriel back on the field Saturday. That’s a big plus as the offense clearly struggled without him. I think this is a “get right” game for the Sooners and will lay the points. 10*

Navy is on a 3-0 ATS win streak coming into Friday, all of the covers coming as underdogs. Twice during that stretch, the Midshipmen have won outright. As a 17.5-point dog, they won at East Carolina 23-20. The following week saw them lose 13-10 at Air Force, but they got the cash as 14-point dogs. Last week saw the Middies double their season point total with a 53-21 beatdown of Tulsa in Annapolis. 

That was Navy’s highest scoring game since 2018. Now they head to SMU to face a Mustangs team that has lost three in a row and failed to cover four in a row. 

SMU was outscored 31-6 in the second half by Central Florida last week. Before that, there were losses to TCU and Maryland. As if things weren’t already bad enough, two players have decided to sit out the remainder of the 2022 season with the intention of hitting the transfer portal. 

These offenses are very different. We know what Navy likes to do as they are #1 in the country in rushing attempts per game. SMU prefers to “air it out” and leads the country in passing yards. 

I believe the key to this game will be Navy’s ability to keep the ball away from the SMU offense. The Mustangs defense has been unable to stop the run during the losing streak, giving up close to 200 rush yards per game. So how do you think they’ll fare against Navy? Too many points to pass up tonight. 10* 

Will it be one step forward and two steps back, or has Fields made a legitimate step as a developing QB? The Bears have been a run-first offense to date, but Fields had his first good start of the season vs the Vikings, with personal highs in passing yards, completion %, and a passer rating of 118. He also ran successfully. The Bears’ passing offense until last week left much to be desired. The run game was limited last week but has been a strength, fifth in the league in yards to date, with Herbert, Montgomery and Fields all as viable options.

The Commanders’ offense is almost entirely about the pass; their run game is virtual nonexistent, which is a shame as the Bears struggle vs the run. Wentz threw for a ton of yards against the Titans last week, but results have been mixed in other games. He has been sacked 20 times this season and has thrown 6 interceptions to date, with just an 86 average passer rating.

The Commanders’ defense is middle of the pack to date against the run, and poor against the pass. The two teams are roughly equal in QB pressure, although the Commanders have more sacks. Washington doesn’t force very many turnovers, with just 1 interception to date. Other than last week against Cousins, the Bears’ pass offense has been impressive; 5 interceptions to date, 9th in pass yards allowed while limiting opposing passers to an 82 passer rating this season.

No one expected much of the Bears this year. They are undefeated at home, and for them it is definitely a case of the glass half full so far. More was expected of the Commanders, and there is turmoil around Wentz’s play in particular. Heads could roll if the Commanders lose this game. I am on the side of the young never-say-die Bears this week. Look for another home victory on TNF. 9*!

There are five Big 12 teams currently ranked in the Top 25. Baylor isn’t one of them, but they should be and I like the Bears laying a short number Thursday night in Morgantown.

Thus far, Baylor has taken a couple of tough losses at home, to BYU (overtime) and Oklahoma State. Those teams are a lot better than West Virginia, who may not even end up in a bowl this year as the Mountaineers are a solid candidate to finish last in the conference.

The WVU defense has allowed 38 or more points to three of the four FBS teams that they’ve faced. They’ve allowed 43.7 points/game in the three losses. Virginia Tech, a horrible offensive team, was the only FBS offense that the Mountaineers have been able to keep in check.

Baylor’s offense has been pretty good thus far, averaging 37.4 points/game. QB Shapen should have plenty of success through the air tonight against a bad WVU pass defense. Before running into OK State, the Bears’ defense had been getting the job done and I expect them to play well tonight. Baylor is 20-4-2 ATS off an ATS loss. 9*

This is a big game for Baylor, who has yet to win in Morgantown (0-5 all-time). But there’s a first time for everything and considering the state of West Virginia football right now, this seems like an obvious time for the Bears to get their first ever win here. WVU will also be without its leading rusher due to a concussion.

You probably don't know this, but Temple has been surprisingly strong on the defensive side of the ball. They rank Top 10 in the country in yards per play allowed! I believe the defense will keep the Owls in this game vs. UCF until the very end, so take the points.

If you only looked at the final score of Temple’s last game, you’d just assume they were dominated by Memphis as it ended up being a 24-3 loss. However, that’s not the case. The Owls shut Memphis out for more than a half with the first points allowed being a TD late in the third quarter. Two of Memphis’ TD drives began in Temple territory.

So as long as Temple’s offense takes better care of the football this week, count on them not giving up many points to UCF. For the season, they are allowing just 16.8 points/game and the most they’ve allowed to any one opponent is 30. With that kind of defense, it’s pretty crazy that we are getting more than three touchdowns here.

Now Temple’s offense is obviously not very good. But UCF was certainly struggling for a while there against SMU last week. The Golden Knights had just 10 points going into halftime before they caught fire coming out of the break. Despite winning 41-19, total yards were basically even in that game and SMU finished with seven more first downs.

UCF is not just 0-4 ATS following their previous four ATS wins, but they are also 0-5 ATS following a straight up win by 20 or more points. This is a good spot to fade them against what has been a surprisingly excellent defense. 10*

It’s an interesting Sun Belt matchup that we’ve got midweek as underachieving Louisiana travels to face a Marshall team that’s 0-3 ATS since their upset of Notre Dame. I’m going to lay the points with the Thundering Herd.

Louisiana has lost three in a row, two of them as favorites. They were 11.5 point favorites in a 33-21 loss at Rice where the offense gained only 275 yards. The following week saw the Ragin Cajuns go to LA Monroe and lose as 9.5-point favorites, 21-17, this time getting outgained by 65 yards. Two Saturdays ago, the Cajuns did cover, as 8.5-point underdogs, but they still lost 20-17 at home to South Alabama.

Now it’s back on the road facing a Marshall team that has an 83-10 scoring edge at home. Now both previous visitors to Huntington were FCS teams. But the Thundering Herd did beat Notre Dame. Louisiana has topped 24 points in only one game this season. Marshall has allowed more than 21 just once. 

This is a big revenge game for Marshall, who lost to Louisiana in the New Orleans Bowl last year, 36-21. This is a much worse Louisana team now though as Billy Napier left for Florida (the NO Bowl was the first game without him) and they had to replace half their starters, including QB, four OL and three LB. 

This is Marshall’s first year in the Sun Belt and they desperately want that first conference win after losing outright to Troy two games ago. The Herd have an excellent defense, one that shouldn’t give up many points to an anemic Louisiana offensive attack. The betting market seems to like the home team big and so do I. 10* Marshall

Based on past results, a  win should be in cards for the Chiefs today.  Kansas City's offense is a different beast this year; equally competent, but much more time-consuming, with more short targets for Mahomes, and a well developed running game.  The Chiefs have been great in the red zone, and with the exception of last week, Mahomes has had solid protection.  Even against that tough Buccaneers pass offense, Mahomes was a wizard in avoidance, and had great success.  At home at Arrowhead, and against another AFC West opponent, I like their chances.  On defense, they have been great against the run, which is important against a Raiders' team who are having good success on the ground.  The KC pass defense has given up yards, a ton of them facing Brady last week, but they have managed solid passer pressure, and are 7th in sacks, against a Raiders' O-line with mixed success.
Carr has not flourished this year for the Raiders with an 83.4 average passer rating. Running back Josh Jacobs has been a bit of a revelation, especially last week. As noted, the Chiefs have been dominant against the run, and against a high-scoring Chiefs offense, the Raiders may not have the same opportunity to run so consistently. On defense, the Raiders haven't been big on QB pressure, with just 5 sacks, and are very poor to date defending in the red zone.  They are also the second most penalized team at the moment.
I like the Chiefs chances today.  Look for another big game from Mahomes et al, and watch them win and cover.

The Eagles, looking for 5-0, are on the road facing the Cardinals. Murray and the Cardinals looked better in Week four, but face MUCH stiffer competition this week. The Cardinals losing 3 starters from their O-line to injury against the league’s toughest pass rush is hardly ideal.

The Eagles are better in almost every offensive and defensive category when compared to the Cardinals, and any categories where the Eagles showed weakness (as in Week one points allowed) they have addressed. They have controlled play in their games, are very good in the Red zone on both sides of the ball, and have been adaptable. Facing a tough pass rush last week, the Eagles produced monster yardage with the run game.

The most telling category for me is quarterback pressure. The Eagles, as noted, are first in sacks, and the Cardinals are 32nd. Allowing Hurts and Philadelphia’s very fine pass offense that kind of freedom is very dangerous. Against a stout Eagles defense, I don’t see Murray or the Arizona run offense having a comfortable game. Philadelphia at 6-0 seems like a distinct possibility. Take the Eagles to win and cover.

The 3-1 Cowboys face the 2-2 Rams in LA, with the usual huge hooplah surrounding these two teams. Dallas is a 5 1/2 point underdog. Is this the week that Stafford starts to show his worth in 2022? Against a very tough Dallas pass defense, I have my doubts. The Rams are 29th in points scored, averaging less than the Cowboys sans Dak. Cooper Rush is 15 points higher in average QB rating, has been sacked just 4 times, and has yet to give up a pick. Stafford has been sacked 16 times and has 6 interceptions to date. Add to that an unwillingness to throw to more than 2 receivers.

The Cowboys’ defense struggles against the run, but the Rams hardly have a running game, and are sitting 30th in rushing yards. The Cowboys are top five in QB pressure, and 2nd in fewest yards per pass attempt. It could be more of the same for Stafford this week, after being pushed around by the 49ers last week. The Rams’ O-line has multiple injury issues at the moment.

Can the Dallas Cowboys offense produce points against the Rams? First off, they may not need that many. They have solid options at running back with Pollard and Elliott, averaging over 100yds a game. Rush now has a few games under his bet and has shown marked improvement. He threw for 223 yards and a 107 QB rating last week, not bad for a back up. There are flaws in this version of the Rams, and injuries aren’t helping. I am on the Cowboys and the Cowboys’ defense on Sunday. Take them at +5.5, although an outright win would not surprise me. 9*!

With Colorado State pulling an outright upset last night, there are only three teams left in College Football without an ATS win. Two reside out in the Pac 12. One of them is Stanford. I am taking the Cardinal plus the points at home in this late Saturday matchup.

Oregon State QB Chance Nolan is questionable to play here. The way he’s turned the ball over the last two games, perhaps the Beavers feel they’d be better off without him. In the losses to USC and Utah, OSU finished -8 in the turnover battle. Tough to win when that happens.

But when you’re Oregon State, it’s tough to win on the road, whether you are turning the ball over or not. The Beavers aren’t just 0-3 ATS as road chalk the last three seasons, they’ve lost all three games outright! And they are just 2-8 SU their L10 road games overall after getting beat 42-16 at Utah last week.

Stanford should not be confused with either USC or Utah, the two teams that beat OSU, but the Beavers aren’t USC, Washington and Oregon, who are the three teams that beat the Cardinal. That’s especially true if the road team has to turn to a backup QB. 

Eventually Stanford has to cover a spread, right? Going back to last year, it’s an inexplicable 0-10 ATS run. They are also due for some better turnover luck and sure enough here comes a team that’s given it away eight times in the last two games. Weird things happen in “Pac 12 After Dark” and I give the home team an excellent shot at pulling the outright upset here. 9*

Kentucky has a big question mark at quarterback as Will Levis (foot) is listed as a game-time decision. Regardless if Levis plays, I am taking South Carolina plus the points here.

The last time we saw Levis, he was coughing up two key fumbles in the red zone last week against Ole Miss. The Wildcats ended up suffering their first loss and the SEC schedule will only get tougher from here on out. 

South Carolina seems revitalized after two straight 50+ point efforts. Granted, the competition was not tantamount to what they’ll face in the SEC. But the Gamecocks now have a lot of confidence heading into Lexington and are the healthier of these two teams. 

Kentucky is not exactly the most impressive 4-1 team in the country to begin with and certainly not the 13th best team in the country. They had to come from behind to win at Florida, couldn’t shake Northern Illinois and even wins over Miami OH and Youngstown State weren’t as dominant as the final scores indicate. Now they may be without their starting QB.

The way this line has been bet certainly tells me that Levis probably isn’t going to play. Either way, take the points with an improving South Carolina outfit. Don’t forget about their QB Spencer Rattler. When not facing Georgia, the Gamecocks have scored at least 30 in every game this season. 10*

Tennessee arrives in Baton Rouge ranked #8 in the country and fresh off a bye. But the 4-0 Volunteers are about to face their toughest test to date in the form of a LSU team that is a missed extra point away from being 5-0.

Since losing the opener to Florida State, Brian Kelly has really turned the Tigers around. Now should they have won last week at Auburn? Probably not! But picking up a big road win like that can do wonders for a team. 

QB Daniels is ready to go this week for LSU as is a defense that should offer plenty of resistance to Tennessee’s high-powered offense. Remember that the last time we saw the Vols, they barely escaped Florida, at home. It was a 38-33 final and UT gave up almost 600 yards.

That wasn’t Tennessee’s first close call either. They only won at Pitt by seven and needed OT to do so. This is by no means an impervious outfit coming out of Knoxville, despite the presence of QB Hendon Hooker. 

Here in Baton Rouge, LSU has already beaten a very good Mississippi State team. That’s a better win than anything on Tennessee’s resume. The Vols don’t come here to Baton Rouge often (last visit was 2010) and haven’t beaten LSU in more than 15 years. LSU is 4-0 SU/ATS L4 hosting the SEC East. 8* 

The 30th and 31st-best scoring offenses meet for the fifth week of Thursday Night Football.  Injuries have compromised both teams' running games, Wilson is sore, and the Colts defense has take a pair of hits.  Is Ryan starting to look more comfortable?  He was better last week, but that was against arguably the worst team in pass defense.  The Colts' offensive line has struggled and could be worse this week.  Ryan has been sacked at the league maximum, with five interceptions and a ton of fumbles to date.  

The Broncos have been tough on passers; 5th in pass yards allowed, 2nd in passing TDs allowed, and with strong QB pressure, 6th in sacks. Their rush defense broke down inexplicably last week, but the Colts' rush attack has been surprisingly unimpressive to date, and now is missing Taylor.  Wilson is a trooper, and looked much better last week, finishing with a very high passer rating.  The Colts are not such a threat to pressure Wilson, and he is also far more mobile than Ryan.  The Broncos at least have a plan B for a rush attack, and if anyone should be worried about fumbles, it is the Colts.

A line of -3 is available for Denver, and anything under that is a bonus.  I am on the Broncos to bounce back, win and cover.

The Commanders, everyone’s latest whipping boys take on the Cowboys, already damned and redeemed this season. The Cowboys will likely start Cooper Rush again. Rush has been competent, if not at all spectacular, well protected by the Cowboys’ O-line, and has great receivers, including a returning Michael Gallup. Wentz has been a sitting duck behind an ineffective Washington O-line. Sacked as often as Burrows, no one has faced more QB pressure or the blitz than Wentz. Tough conditions to excel under. Sacked 9 times last week, the Commanders’ passing yards dropped by 100 yards from week two. Facing the Cowboys’ top of the line pass defense, it will likely be another long day for Wentz. Adding an indifferent run game, averaging just 86 yards a game, doesn’t aid the overall Commanders’ offense.

The Dallas run defense has not been as effective, allowing 130+ yds an attempt and nearly 5 yds per carry. The Giants ran for 167 yards last week. The overall defense has been very effective, limiting teams to just 17+ points a game to date.

The Cowboys have a pair of good running backs and a top 11 run game. The Commanders’ defense have not handled the run nor the pass well to date. Look for a good situation for Pollard and Elliott. It should also be Rush’s best opportunity for a breakthrough week. I see the Cowboys seriously limiting Wentz and the Commander’s offense, and scoring enough to both win and cover on Sunday.

The Browns, a small favorite, face the 1-2 Falcons at home in week 4. Brissett has looked pretty sharp as a stand-in, with a healthy 10th rated QB ranking and a solid performance last week. He had 2 Tds, 0 interceptions and a 109 passer rating in week 3, not to mention a 74% completion rate in his last two games. Then there is Chubb, and don’t forget about Hunt, making a very tough 1-2 punch on the top running game in the league. The Browns’ offense have been the best in the league in time of possession, and they don’t turn the ball over very often. The Falcons have been turnover-prone to date.

The Falcons have put up almost as many points as the Browns. Mariota had a solid game in week three, and has also run the ball well, but has been sacked more than average, and has already thrown 3 picks. The Falcons’ Patterson put up huge numbers on the run last week, and has been a surprise standout so far, but is questionable with a knee injury for week four. Other than Mariota, Patterson IS the Falcons running game. He is a huge loss if his play is compromised.

All eyes were on the Browns’ defense after week two’s catastrophic ending. They played much better in week three, and have been tough against the run, although were a bit sloppy last week. They have also been tough on opposing passers, although injuries will play a role in that regard this Sunday.

The Falcons defense is one of the worst in the league in a number of defensive categories, including points, total yards, and passing yards. They are just mid-pack in rushing categories, and while they are solid in QB pressure, the Browns’ O-line has protected Brissett well.

Look for another solid game from Brissett, and the Browns’ rush game to again dominate. If Patterson is compromised, things could go badly for the Falcons. Take the Browns to win.

The Vikings and Saints travel to London, each with potentially serious holes in the line-up due to injuries.  The Vikings will have Cousins at QB, and he could be the difference maker today. We could see a bounce-back game from Jefferson but Cousins has plenty of targets if the Saints key on JJ as other teams have lately. The Saints have a huge butcher's bill and could be down to Dalton at QB.  Even if Winston plays there  are huge questions around his performances lately, with a 79 average passer rating and more interceptions than TDs to date. Both top running backs are questionable for Sunday.

On defense, neither team has excelled.  The Vikings have given up yards but not points, the Saints have been the reverse.  The Saints to date have been weaker against the run, and don't pressure the passer effectively.  The Vikings O-line has protected Cousins well, and not so for the Saints.

I am on the Vikings today.  They have fared well in London in previous games.  I expect them to win and cover on Sunday.

Western Kentucky is 3-1 but it has not been a challenging schedule for the Hilltoppers. They’ve beaten FIU and Hawaii, who are probably the two worst FBS teams in the country, plus a FCS team in Austin Peay. Austin Peay may be the “best” win of the three, even though it was 73-0 last week against FIU. 

Yes, WKU probably should have beaten Indiana too, but instead lost that game in overtime. Because of that close call and the 73-0 win last week, I think we’ve got some nice value to go against the Hilltoppers this week.

Troy is 3-0 ATS as an underdog thus far, going against Ole Miss, Appalachian State and Marshall. After losing the way they did against App State (hail mary), it would have been easy for the Trojans to fold the following week against Marshall. But instead they took the game outright, 16-7, as a three-point dog.

The Trojans were by no means dominated by Ole Miss, only getting outgained by 87 yards. There may be a unique advantage for them in this matchup. Backup QB Jarret Doege transferred from WKU right before the start of the season. Doege should certainly be able to share some intel with his new teammates. 

Defensively, Troy has a clear edge here. They just held Marshall (who upset Notre Dame, remember) to not just 7 points, but 174 total yards. Indiana put up 484 yards on the WKU defense, which also benefited from 10 turnovers in the first two games. Troy’s offense has averaged 437 yards/game the L3 weeks. 10*

So there are several reasons to like Mississippi State in this game. Let’s go through them!

One is that the situation is really against Texas A&M, who just played a down to the wire game against Arkansas and has #2 Alabama on deck. Mississippi State played Bowling Green last week and won easily, 45-14. 

The Alabama game is huge for A&M as they beat the Crimson Tide last season and there has been a lot of chatter coming from both coaches, recruiting-related and otherwise, all offseason. 

Last year, Mississippi State also faced A&M in an “Arkansas-Alabama sandwich.” They upset the Aggies 26-22 in College Station as seven-point underdogs with QB Will Rogers (no, not me) completing 46 of 59 passes for 408 yards and three touchdowns. Rogers also did not throw an interception in that game. 

A&M has been outgained in three straight games with the offense never scoring more than 17 points. Remember last week they needed a defensive score (and a missed field goal) for the win. Even worse for the Aggies offense is that they have lost WR Smith to an injury. I just don’t see how they keep pace with a Mississippi State offense that has scored 39 or more points three times. The Bulldogs also led LSU on the road 13-0 before collapsing in the second half. They desperately will want to avoid an 0-2 start to SEC play. Lay the points at home. 9*

This is a Top 25 matchup but oddsmakers clearly believe #23 Florida State is better than #22 Wake Forest. So do I. 

From 2012-18, FSU defeated Wake seven straight times. But they’ve lost the last two head to head meetings, both in Winston-Salem, including 35-14 last year. There have been some “lean” years in Tallahassee - by Seminoles’ standards - but early returns in 2022 have been promising for coach Mike Norvell.

The ‘Noles are 4-0, which is their best start since 2015 . This is also the first game that they’ll play as a ranked team in four years. Both the offense and defense are in the top 35 nationally in scoring. QB Jordan Travis threw for a career-high 321 yards (with just 16 completions!) in last week’s 44-14 win over Boston College.

While FSU remains unbeaten, Wake Forest is off its first loss of the season. It was a wild one for the Demon Deacons, a 51-45 double overtime loss at home to #5 Clemson. Their defense obviously got torched. Coming off a loss like that, WF is “ripe for the picking.” 

Wake Forest has not won here in Tallahassee since 2008. Their defense is a major concern, not just because of the Clemson game last week. The week before, the Deacons allowed Liberty to 36 points and that honestly could have been a loss as they were outgained and needed Liberty to miss a 2-point try in the final 70 seconds. FSU should roll here. 10* 

Thursday night Football week 4 is a tough call, especially considering the question marks around Tua and a number of other Dolphins. Both teams are pass-centric to the extreme. The Dolphins are 31st in rush offense. The Bengals have a solid RB in Mixon but he just hasn’t been used as much as might be expected. The Dolphins’ defense has been top ten vs the run, while the Bengals rush defense has struggled and could be exploited.

Tua, if available, has excelled this year and has largely been well protected. The Dolphins have great receivers, and when healthy should compete with any team.   Burrow has been pressured and sacked on far too many occasions to date. The Bengals won’t have as easy a time of it this week as they did vs the Jets. I expect Miami to take it to Burrow, and all of that pressure comes at a price.

The Dolphins defense came up big on numerous occasions vs the Bills. I expect a big game from them. I am not confident that the Bengals are out of the woods yet or that their offensive line can stand up to Miami. Burrow better have his dancing shoes on. Expect a close game but take the Dolphins to cover.  9*!

The 1-1 Cowboys face off with the 2-0 Giants in a highly touted MNF game. Sorry Giants, but I am not sure that 3-0 is a real possibility. First off, I am not sold on Jones nor the Giants ability to protect him on Monday. Jones was well under 200 yds passing, with very short yds/comp and was sacked multiple time. This against 2 relatively poor pass attacks. The Cowboys’ pass defense has been formidable, top 5 in most categories, and a passer nightmare in both games. The Giants also saw the run game (Barkley) fall off significantly in week two after a fine and much publicized effort in Week one against a weak defense. The Cowboys’ rush defense was much better in week two, holding Mixon and the Bengals to 89 yards.

On defense the Giants have not really impressed. The run defense struggled against the Titans as expected but allowed nearly 120 yds against Carolina. They are 30th in yards per completion, again vs. two sub-par passers.

Perhaps the biggest question in this game surrounds the Dallas offense after the loss of Prescott. The Cowboys have a very good two pronged running attack. Rush threw for more yards and had a higher passer rating than Jones in week two. He has been well protected and has brilliant targets available. Even with injury returns, the Giants will likely struggle to get to Rush this week. The rest of the Dallas team will have Rush in about in as good a position to succeed as could be hoped for.

The Giants are a small favorite. Take the Cowboys to steal this one on the road.

The Falcons have held their own against 2 tough opponents, scoring 26 and 27 points and covering in both games.  They have a solid rush offense to date, and Mariota has put them in a position to win both games.  The 1-1 Seahawks were lucky to win their first game and lost badly last week.  They are close to the bottom in many offensive categories, including time of possession and points scored.  They have no run game to speak of.  Geno Smith has been accurate but unable to generate points or yards.
Neither team has defended well against the pass.  Seattle has given up big yards against the run.  Home team or not, I just can't Seattle generating  enough points or defending well enough against a fairly dynamic Falcons offense.  Take the Falcons to steal this one.  9*!

It was just the one quarter... Like the old joke, the Ravens’ 4th quarter soured a fine game from Lamar Jackson. And yes, the Patriots’ won last week, but against a Steelers team with not much of an offense. The Patriots do not have the receivers, nor can Jones run and gun with Jackson. Not to mention, the Ravens blitz and Jones is very susceptible. Both teams have been solid vs. the run, but NE hasn’t faced a QB who can scramble like Jackson. The Ravens lack of rushing offense, other than Jackson, is a concern, but that may change today.  New England does have two solid running backs.

Jackson’s QB rating is right up there, Jones is 18th. Jackson has thrown just 1 interception; Jones 2. Neither passer was sacked last game. NE may be missing their top receiver in this game, a situation they can ill afford.

I am wagering on the Ravens this week and expect them to bounce back from their ugly loss in week two.  I also expect the Ravens' defense to be on their very best behavior and make the necessary adjustments, and had success backing the Browns' defense to respond this week.  Jones has yet to prove himself this year; Jackson will be the game breaker.  The line has dropped below a field goal.  Jump on the Ravens to win and cover.

The 2-0 Chiefs face a struggling Colts team in Indianapolis on Sunday. The Colts game in week two could hardly have gone worse, but the line has drifted in the Colts’ favor. I am unsure why. KC and Patrick Mahomes have looked very good in their opening two games. Mahomes has adapted comfortably to his new circumstances, and we are seeing some timely running from this pass-centric offense. Mahomes has had great protection, hasn’t thrown an interception, and has a monster QB rating.

The Colts’ offense has been a shambles, and were shut out last week. Taylor only carried the ball 9 times, which is incomprehensible. Ryan does not look settled, and has been very poor under pressure, of which there has been lots as the Colts’ O-line has struggled. Ryan threw 3 interceptions, was sacked multiple times, and ended with a miserable 34 passer rating. He may benefit from the return of a quality target, but that is still an unknown.

Kc did not defend well vs the pass last week but faced a much tougher opponent in the Chargers. They have been more successful applying pressure to the passer than the Colts, but haven’t faced a top running back like Taylor this year, so will need to work to contain him.

The Colts would have to make a huge adjustment to come within a TD of the Chiefs and there really is no sign of that in week three. To add to their problems, the Colts will miss a pair of key people on defense this week. I am on KC to win and cover on the road on Sunday.

The Eagles collectively improved from week 1, and manhandled the Vikings in a complete game winning effort. Hurts looked poised and produced in the air and, of course, on the ground. The Eagles’ running game is on fire with Sanders averaging 88 yds a game and 5.9 yds/carry. Hurts has “chipped in” with 147 yards to date, ahead of all passers. On defense, they limited the Vikings’ run game to 62 yds and all but shut down the highly touted Jefferson in the air. The Vikings’ offense was on the field less than 40% of the time.

The Commanders lost to Detroit, but Wentz made it interesting in the second half. He has thrown for over 300 yards in the first two games, but also had 3 interceptions and was sacked 6 times to date. Wentz had better be good as Washington has had no appreciable running game to date. The Commanders’ defense has struggled against the run, at or near the bottom in yds and yds/carry, and giving up 191 yards to the Lions last week. They’ve also given up considerably more yards in the air than the Eagles.

I am big on the Eagles this year, but was concerned with their defensive play in Week one. Week two showed real improvement against a possible play-off team. There is much talk about a revenge game for Wentz this week. That sentiment goes both ways as Russell Wilson found out in his first game back in Seattle. Take the Eagles to win and cover. 9*!

This is a massive letdown spot for #18 Washington, who beat Michigan State 39-28 last week to move into the polls. The Huskies were an unranked favorite over a Top 25 team in that game. They are one of just five schools to be 3-0 ATS and favored in every game.

Now they’re laying double digits to a conference rival.

Following a loss to USC, Stanford had last week off. Going back to last year, the Cardinal haven’t covered a spread in nine consecutive games, tying them with Colorado State for the longest streak in the nation. But a bye week coupled with the fact they played USC tougher than you might think, have me believing they will stay inside the number this week.

Stanford is 5-1 straight up vs. Washington when the Huskies are ranked in the Top 25. I know that QB Michael Penix Jr (transfer from Indiana) has been a difference-maker for UW, but this spread seems too high after a marquee win like the one the team had last week. I’m not THAT sold on the Huskies just yet.

As for Stanford, after a bye, they figure to go “all out” in this game as they look to avoid an 0-2 start in Pac 12 play. The spread is up to two touchdowns and I just do not see the favorite winning by that kind of margin. Washington is only 2-9 ATS its last 11 conference games and 3-7 ATS the last 10 times it has been off a straight up win. 10*

Few are going to give Maryland any shot of pulling the upset Saturday in Ann Arbor, even though the Terrapins come in at 3-0. It has not been a good run against Michigan the last several years with the Terps both losing and failing to cover each of the last six meetings.

Maryland did have a nice win last week (at home) against SMU. So it’s not like they haven’t played anyone. The same cannot be said for Michigan who has faced three of the worst teams in the country, Colorado State, Hawaii and Connecticut. Give the Wolverines credit for winning those three games by a combined score of 166-17. But they were also favored to win the three games by 132 points. All three lines were -31 or higher with the last two averaging -50.5! 

I know that Maryland was a bit lucky to get the win last week over SMU. But I think they’ve got the goods to stay within 17 this week. QB Taulia Tagovailoa is completing 77 percent of his passes and has accounted for seven touchdowns. This will quite obviously be the best offense Michigan has faced thus far. 

So let’s see how Michigan does once they actually “get punched in the mouth.” My view is that the weak non-conference slate did wonders for “stat-padding.” However, the team is likely now overconfident as they hit the Big 10 slate. The Wolverines are just 3-7 ATS their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  10*

UTEP isn’t going to get a lot of love from bettors here, especially with the Miners coming in at 0-4 ATS. But the Boise State team that comes to El Paso Friday night just isn’t as strong as we’re used to seeing. In their only “real” test thus far, the Broncos got run off the field in an embarrassing first half showing at Oregon State, a game they’d go on to lose 34-17.

Now Boise has bounced back with a couple of wins, over New Mexico and Tenn Martin, but that doesn’t convince me they are worthy of laying double digits on the road. The Broncos are 0-2-1 ATS in 2022 and pushed two weeks ago with a similar spread at New Mexico. I realize that UTEP just lost to New Mexico - by 17 - last week. But they turned it over SEVEN times in that game, one of them an INT that was returned for a TD. 

The UTEP defense has not been bad the last two games, giving up 313 total yards to New Mexico State and just 299 to New Mexico. Yes, those are two bad teams, but Boise State’s offense just isn’t what it used to be. Broncos QB Hank Bachmeier has been inconsistent and was shaken up in last week’s game. On other side of the ball, two starters in the Boise secondary also got hurt last week. So there may be hope for a couple of big plays in the passing game from this UTEP offense after all.

Boise State’s offense seems content to play “slower” compared to years’ past, so I do not see them running away with this game. For the record, the Broncos are 2-10 ATS following a straight up win, 0-5 if that win was by more than 20 points. Also, they could be looking ahead to next week’s game at San Diego State

For UTEP, this game will be treated as “their Super Bowl.” It’s a rare national TV game (CBS Sports) on a Friday night against a fairly marquee opponent. I had success with an "ugly dog" last Friday (Wyoming), so grab those points again. 9*

Thursday Night Football brings you an odd match-up this week featuring a team that can’t score vs a team the apparently can’t defend. We have heard about the Browns’ defensive debacle endlessly, but there were high points in that game for the Browns. Jacoby Brissett looked pretty good, and significantly better than the previous week. He was accurate, threw for 221 yds, had a passer rating of 98.5, and was protected well by the Browns’ O line. The Browns’ rush attack was overpowering, and is first in the league, with 184 yds last week and a potent two pronged attack from Chubb and Hunt. The Steelers have yet to face a good running team, but are still 23rd in yards allowed. They are also 30th in passing yards allowed, still missing Watt, and had zero sacks last week.

The Browns are missing key people on defense, which will make a difference, but less so against the Steelers. Trubisky has not been effective, and if anything was worse last week. He is 28th in passing yards, and 26th in QB rating. He was sacked three times last week and has not looked good handling pressure. The Steelers have not mounted a real run game yet, which leads one to wonder what have they been doing on offense? They haven’t had the ball much is the correct response, and are 30th in offensive time of possession.

I expect Cleveland to run up some points, and the defense to be on their best behavior, especially at home. Take the Browns to win and cover.

The Vikings off a hug win against the Packers, looked solid on both offense and defense. Admittedly this was not a vintage game from Rogers, but give the Vikings some credit; they sacked him 4 times, and held Rogers to a 74.7 QB rating. On offense, Cousins, Jefferson, and Cook all looked terrific. Cousins was accurate, and ran up 269 passing yds with 2 TDs and a 118 QB rating.

The Eagles put up a bunch of points but were hardly in control against a team much weaker than the Vikings. Hurts struggled in the air but was a force on the ground. The Eagles’ run game is a force to be reckoned with, and it isn’t just Hurts. The Eagles have a very good offensive line, and a solid running back in Sanders. The Eagles cannot afford to expose Hurts to the same degree very often.

The Eagles’ defense was a concern. They were just OK vs. Gough and the pass, but were very poor vs. the run. As talented as it is the defense is, did not look composed or effective. Can they improve significantly in a week? It seems a tall order. I like the Eagles this year, but just not yet. Take the Vikings to cover.

Utah is out for revenge Saturday night in Salt Lake City, facing a San Diego State team that defeated them, 33-31 as eight-point underdogs, last season. The Utes are much bigger favorites this time, but I think the Aztecs keep it close. 

The bloom is off the rose a bit for SDSU as they lost 38-20 at home to Arizona in the opener. But they came back to beat Idaho State 38-7 last week. A well-coached team like this, that can run the football effectively, should be able to control the clock and stay within the generous number.

Let’s not forget Utah lost to Florida. Florida is obviously much better than SDSU, but the Utes defense did allow 451 yards in that game. 

I think that the revenge angle has inflated this line. Utah is also just 2-11 ATS in the month of September, not to mention 1-4 ATS following a straight up win of more than 20 points and 2-7 ATS its last nine non-conference games. 

And this is a spot where San Diego State typically steps it up. They are 5-1 ATS their last six games vs. Top 25 teams. Going back to 2016, they sport a 13-5 record vs. the number when catching points. 10*

The second Scott Frost was fired, bettors started piling on Nebraska, who is a home dog for this Noon ET matchup against #6 Oklahoma. I agree with the line move and will be taking the points.

Nebraska may be 0-3 ATS, 1-2 SU, but Frost is gone and the Cornhuskers have actually been pretty good as an underdog in recent years (12-8-1 ATS). Last year, they easily covered as 22-point dogs in Norman, losing by just seven points to OU.

The Sooners did win 33-3 last week, but that’s a little misleading when you consider they were down 3-0 to Kent State with under a minute to go in the first half. Just because they were able to pile it on in the second half there doesn’t mean they can do the same here.

Interim coach Mickey Joseph should have the Blackshirts fired up and ready to go Saturday morning. I just can’t see the home team being blown out here and remember no team has lost more close games the last few seasons than Nebraska has. All we are asking for here is for them to keep it close.

The offense seems just fine in Lincoln, averaging 36 points/game. Oklahoma has yet to face a good offense this year. I also wouldn’t be so certain that the Sooners can make it three straight games without a turnover. Grab the points. 9*

Air Force is probably the best team in the Mountain West right now. Going back to last season, the Falcons own the nation’s third longest active win streak at six in a row. They have also covered the spread in all six of those games. But Wyoming has always been a tough opponent and I’m liking the points in this Friday night matchup.

First off, Air Force hasn’t won here in Laramie since 2012. They’ve lost three times here since that last win and conference openers also seem to be a problem for the Falcons. They’re just 2-9 SU in MWC openers the last 11 seasons. They’ve also lost their first road game of the season each of the last three years.

Nobody runs the ball better than Air Force, but the past shows that the Wyoming defense has been fairly adept at slowing down the triple option. The last two years, Air Force has averaged just 186.5 rush yards vs. Wyoming. That still sounds like a lot, however, not when compared to what the Falcons usually rush for.

Wyoming is also 2-0, by the way. I know that an OT win over Tulsa and beating FCS Northern Colorado isn’t going to really impress anybody. But the fact they put up an average of 36.5 points in those two wins is encouraging. The Cowboys should have scored more than 33 last week, but settled for four field goals. 

The last 14 encounters between these Mt West rivals have seen an average of just over 42 points/game scored. That’s not very many. So, in what historically has been a low-scoring game, grabbing the points seems like the better option, especially with AF’s past struggles here in Laramie. 10* 

It is the Chargers and the Chiefs in a barn burner of a match-up on TNF.  Mahomes and the Chiefs overpowered the Cardinals over 3 quarters, then coasted home while resting starters, which is significant considering the quick turn-around in Week Two.  The Chargers prevailed in a much closer match-up vs the Raiders, and were all out until the last series.
Mahomes and Herbert are expected to be the story, and both were superb in Week One.  While this match will likely be pass-focused, it is the the success or failure of the respective run games which may play a dominant roll.  The success of Edwards-Helaire as a rusher and a receiver, and the emergence of  rookie Pacheco may be significant this week.  Mahomes wasn't sacked in Week one, but  the Chargers' new Mack-Bosa led pass rush had 6 sacks in week one. Not to underestimate that duo, and Mahomes has too many options to allow that kind of pressure, but he likely won't emerge this week unscathed. The Chargers' defense barely face a run game (just 13 plays) and still allowed a rushing yards-against average of nearly 5 yards.   On offense the Chargers' run game was most unimpressive, averaging under 3 yds a carry over 31 plays.
On Defense, the Chiefs Sacked Murray three times, and limited the Cardinals on the ground and in the air.  Like Mahomes, Herbert was not sacked in week one, but I expect him to have a much rougher ride this time around.  He likely will be without Allen, his favorite target in week one.
It is hard to doubt the Chiefs after such a dominant victory in their first game. Mahomes seemed to revel in so many receiving options in week one, and he, of course still has Kelce as a go to. they looked incredibly prepared.  The loss of Allen and the lack of a run game will be the difference on Thursday.  Take the Chiefs to win and cover.

For the Broncos, it is kind of like starting school with the brand new outfit; new QB, new coach and new plan for the offense. Same old defense, which is a good thing. Rated well into the top 10, the Broncos’ defense allowed the third lowest points last year. They were particularly good against the pass, and in the red zone, but look for a new emphasis on bringing pressure to quarterbacks this year. The Broncos on offense have a powerful rushing duo in Williams and Gordon, and fine receivers. What remains to be seen is how much of an addition Wilson can be to take the Broncos to the next step and how quickly he can do it.

Much is made in the media about the Seahawks and the return of Wilson. It will be very surprising if the Seahawks thrive rather than flounder this year, and the Broncos will be a very tough opening match. As much as the Seahawks know Russell Wilson, Wilson the playmaker, also knows the Seahawks. Emotions aside, this might be the very best place for Wilson and the Broncos to start.

On offense, Seattle hopes that RB force Penny will continue as he finished last year. It is eight years since Geno Smith played as a starting quarterback, so no great expectations there. Smith did not thrive under pressure last year, and while still has some very fine targets, he is a big step back on QB for the Seahawks this year.

Look for the tough Broncos defense to hold things together early and pressure Smith, and possibly more of a running game early from the Broncos. Wilson knows why he is there, is a consummate professional and competitor, and WILL establish a pass attack. Projected scores for this match vary wildly from a grudge win by a vengeful Seattle squad to a Broncos blowout. I expect something in the middle. Take Denver to win and cover. 9*!

What to think of the Cardinals this year?  The Cardinals didn't make a ton of changes in the off season  They face a tough early schedule, and there is definitely friction around Kyler Murray. The Cardinals have a mediocre offensive line and will be missing Hopkins for the first six games as well as 2 other key targets injured or questionable..  Their day one opponent probably couldn't be worse.  Mahomes and the Chiefs don't fail on season openers, and are projected to be in the elite in the league again this year. While they lost Hill, they still have Kelce, and have added key receivers for a new look KC pass attack.  One thing that hasn't changed is the O-line, and that is a good thing.  It served Mahomes very well last year.

The Cardinals started last season as a very good defensive team, but that changed by the end of the season.  The lost some key people on defense and haven't appeared to replace them. The Cardinals have a pretty serious injury bill at the moment.  They are not especially good vs the run, so we might just see more running game from the Chiefs on Sunday.

Mahomes has something to prove after a difficult (for him) year in 2021.  He has by all reports, prepared very well, and the KC offense looked good in preseason.  Take the Chiefs to win and cover on Sunday. 9*!

Have the Eagles truly landed? Well, I am on Hurts and the Eagles until I see otherwise.  The Eagles have done much to bolster the team in the off season.  AJ Brown might not even be the most significant addition as they have significantly added to the defense through free agency and the draft.  Hurts needs to take that step forward this season and the Eagles brain trust has put him in the best possible position to make that step.  The Eagles now have a trio of top targets for Hurts, a very strong O-line and a dominant run game to boot. Did I mention a top 5 or 6 defense?

Run is a bit of a dirty word for the Lions.  They don't have an established run game, and they likely wont defend the run much better than last year.  Geoff, like Hurts, needs to make the next step, but the Lions, while improved, don't have the personnel to fully support him.  Their offensive line was expected to be a bright spot this year, but the injury bug has struck already.  While it likely won't be the rout we say last year, I expect the Eagles to win and cover.

Even though Illinois is at home, coming off a loss to Indiana, they probably should not be favored here. 

Now the Fighting Illini’s season did get off to a great start as they blew out Wyoming 38-6 here in Champaign. But the last second loss to Indiana last week took the wind out of their sales pretty quick. It’s a game the Illini probably should have won, but four turnovers cost them dearly.

Virginia has the best offense that Brett Bielema’s team has seen yet. The Cavaliers are led by Brennan Armstrong, a dual threat QB that can beat you with his arm or his legs. Illinois’ defense will have all sorts of problems trying to contain Armstrong, who has his top three receivers back from last year.

It wasn’t the most impressive final score as Virginia beat Richmond last week 34-17. But the offense had over 500 yards and scored 28 points by halftime. They simply took their foot off the gas in the second half, probably not wanting to show Illinois much. 

These teams met last year and Virginia won 42-14 with Armstrong throwing for 400 yards. The line was -10.5 (in favor of Virginia) for that game. I just don’t see how it could be so different here. 10*

Boise State turned in a truly horrible first half performance last week in Corvallis and as a result, found themselves down 24-0 going into the break. Winning the second half 17-10 was of little consequence as the Broncos ended up going down 34-17 at the hands of Oregon State. Based on that performance, I think the number is too high this week in New Mexico.

Not much is expected in Albuquerque this year. But the Lobos did start 2022 with a big 41-0 win over Maine. Now while everyone realizes that’s a FCS opponent, New Mexico did hold the Bears to 118 total yards and just 2.5 per play. UNM gained 437 yards in the game and six per play.

After just one game, there’s already some question as to who will be under center for Boise. Hank Bachmeier threw two first half interceptions last week and thus got benched for Taylen Green, who came in and threw for 155 yards. As of press time, Bachmeier is still listed as QB1. But this uncertainty about the position can’t be good for the offense.

New Mexico’s offense is all about running the ball. Look for them to control the clock, making it difficult for Boise State to pull away. Honestly, based on what we saw last week, there’s no reason to believe the Broncos will run away with this game.

A Friday night home game is a big deal for New Mexico and I’m expecting an inspired effort where they keep the game close. The Lobos seem like they’re a better football team compared to last year. The Broncos are now just 7-7 straight up their last 14 games. 9*

What a letdown Louisville was last week. The Cardinals lost 31-7 at Syracuse in a completely misleading final. I say that not just as “sour grapes” after a bad bet, but knowing full well Louisville came away with seven points on five drives inside the Orange 40-yard line. 

Even though QB Malik Cunningham did not play great against Syracuse, the offense still averaged 6.2 yards per play. What happened is they were undone by three costly turnovers. 

Central Florida faced a FCS school in its opening game, so we really can’t make “heads or tails” of the Golden Knights just yet. But we do know they lost three of last year’s starters along the defensive line. Louisville should be able to run the ball more effectively and hold up in the face of pressure better than they did in Week 1.

Louisville won this matchup last year, 41-34 as a seven-point dog. It came down to the wire with a pick-six on the final play deciding things. I’m not saying they’ll be able to beat the Cardinals again, but all the Golden Knights need is to stay within a score. I think they do that here.

Cunningham should have a bounce back game (he had 384 yards in this game last year) and we’re getting a ton of value with Louisville being off a loss. The Cardinals are 10-4-1 ATS off a loss. 9* 

The Bills face the Rams on the road in what is touted as a possible prequel to this year's Super Bowl.  So what have these teams done lately? The Bills who were solid on both sides of the ball, upgraded on defense by adding Von Miller and others to an already impressive and well run defense.  What did the Rams do? certainly, they lost more than they gained.The Rams had their issues on defense last year, especially early in the season and were never much better than average over the season.  I am not convinced that the Rams won't struggle early again.

There is no doubting Stafford's abilities, but he doesn't come without a down side.  He threw more interceptions than any one last year, and he doesn't exactly spread the ball around.  He gets sacked a not inconsiderable number of times, and there are still some questions around his elbow. Allen and his running ability, and Von Miller, who will likely be in Stafford's face a lot on Thursday ,will be the difference-makers in this game.

The Bills are hungrier and with more to prove.  On the road or no, take the Bills to win and cover. 9*!

Washington should run away with a victory in their opening game in what promises to be a bounce back season under new coach Kalen DeBoer. 

DeBoer did a great job leading Fresno State to a 10-3 record last season. He’s got more talent to work with in Seattle and brought in Michael Penix (transfer from Indiana) to play quarterback.

The Huskies’ defense has experience and there shouldn’t be much of a learning curve under the new co-coordinators DeBoer brought with him from Frenso.

DeBoer will certainly want to make a “statement” in his first game. With a FCS opponent on deck, there’s really no reason to hold back or “hide” anything. Kent State is going to be in a lot of trouble in this late Saturday matchup. 

The Golden Flashes have made it to a bowl two of the last three seasons, but there are heavy losses on offense with the QB, both WRs and four offensive linemen having to be replaced. This is a giant mismatch on the Week 1 card.

Louisville and Syracuse each have a head coach on the proverbial hot seat. Scott Satterfield went 8-5 his first year at Louisville, but is just 10-14 since. Dino Babers is still hanging on at Syracuse despite a 29-43 record over six years. A win here is desperately needed for both Satterfield and Babers. Only one can get it though.

Satterfield’s overall results may not be up to snuff. But Syracuse is a team he’s handled all three seasons. The Cardinals have beaten the Orange three straight years, outscoring them 127-37 along the way. The last two years it’s been 71-3. 

The Louisville offense should be excellent this year with QB Malik Cunningham back. I think they have the potential to put up 40 points per game. What about the defense? Seven starters are back and eight transfers were brought in. So the Cardinals will be stronger on that side of the ball.

Cunningham has killed the Orange defense in the past with nine touchdown passes in two games. He’s a threat to run (1031 yards last year) and with Syracuse breaking in an entirely new starting D-line, I don’t like their chances against the senior L’ville QB this time either. The third time will not be the charm.

Given the series history, which includes eight straight covers by the team that is favored, you’ve got to like Louisville here. Cunningham is the difference maker with Cuse QB Shrader remains a question mark. 10*

Chip Kelly is only 18-25 in his four years at UCLA. But it was finally a winning season last year at 8-4. With Dorian Thompson-Robinson back for another year, the Bruins’ offense should be explosive and I see them routing Bowling Green in the opener.

Scott Loeffler is just 7-22 in his three years at Bowling Green with four of the wins coming last year. The Falcons do bring back one of the more experienced offenses in the country, however this group was only able to put up 21 points per game in ‘21. They still don’t have enough to keep up with DTR and the Bruins.

The defensive side of the ball was BG’s strength last season. But it still struggled to stop the run and will have to deal with Zach Charbonnet, who had 1153 yards and 13 touchdowns last season. 

UCLA averaged 37 points per game last year. Against FBS teams, BG scored more than 26 once.

It’s a big number to lay in the opener. But Kelly is all-too-aware of what’s going on at USC and doesn’t want to lose the headlines in Los Angeles. UCLA has a very easy non-conference schedule and will want to start like they did last year when they blew out Hawaii 44-10 in the first game. Won’t be close at the Rose Bowl. 9* 

Michigan State probably won’t match 2021’s 11-2 SU record, but they’ll have an excellent defense and should easily overwhelm an inexperienced Western Michigan team in the opener. 

Sparty won all six of its home games last year, one of them over a Michigan team that made the CFP Playoff. The six wins were by an average of 13 points and while I need a bigger margin of victory Friday, this Western Michigan team is one of the weaker opponents to visit in East Lansing in quite some time.

The Broncos lose QB Kaleb Eleby and his production will be almost impossible to replace even though the team went a disappointing 8-5 with him at the helm last year. WMU was actually favored in all eight MAC games in 2021. This year, they figure to take some lumps early on.

The offensive line is young and will struggle to protect new QB Salopek, a freshman, against what is likely to be a ferocious Spartans’ pass rush. 

MSU covered 10 of 13 games last season and will win here by at least four scores. Last time these teams played it was 51-17 Sparty. Lay the number. 8*

It’s nice to see this rivalry being revived. This is the first “Backyard Brawl” since 2011 when WVU prevailed 21-20 in Morgantown. The Mountaineers have actually won seven of the last ten meetings, as well as four of the last five, but obviously little of that matters now as more than a decade has passed since the programs last met on the football field.

Pitt’s players, coaching staff and fans should care though. It’s an important game to start the season, not just because of the rivalry, but also because the Panthers have high hopes for ‘22. While they do lose QB Pickett, OC Whipple and top WR Addison, the three top running backs all return and Slovis has transferred from USC to replace Pickett. This Pitt team will again be a force in the ACC, a conference they won last season.

West Virginia hasn’t won more than six games in any of the previous three seasons and figures to be near the bottom of the Big 12 again this year. The defensive side of the ball lost a lot, particularly at linebacker and in the secondary. There’s just 11 returning starters total and the Mountaineers lost their QB, top RB and top WR from a season ago. 

With this being a rivalry game, it’s only natural to “think upset,” but I just can’t see WVU hanging with this Pitt team. The Panthers have a decisive edge on defense. Transfer JT Daniels may be in for a long night in his first game in a Mountaineer uniform. The home team is very strong along the defensive line and in the back end.

Pitt is not only 16-4 SU its last 20 games as a favorite, but they’ve covered 13 times. They are 6-2 ATS last eight tries as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.  WVU is 2-8 SU/3-7 ATS L10 road games. Lay the number. 9* Pitt

No matter where you look, you will not find a College Football team with less experience than Nevada. I believe this will be a major detriment for the Wolf Pack, who are laying points in the season opener. 

The Wolf Pack went 8-4 last year in the regular season with three of the losses coming by two points. But then they were rolled in the bowl game, 52-24 by Western Michigan, and their coach Mike Norvell left for rival Colorado State. First year coach Ken Wilson is stepping into a tough situation in Reno as QB Strong is gone as are the top SEVEN receivers from last year. Only six starters are back. 

New Mexico State is again pegged to be one of the worst teams in College Football. They also have a new coach, Jerry Kill, who had previous success at Northern Illinois and Minnesota. While the Aggies are underdogs here, I think the players and coaching staff view this as a very winnable game and will want to get the Kill-era off to a strong start. At home, getting points against such an experienced team, they are the play. 

Last year’s NMSU team was a little bit better than you might realize as they led both San Diego State and Utah State at the half. Kill did a nice job in the transfer portal, adding a number of talented players. 

Nevada lost its starting right tackle to a season-ending injury and he was the lone returnee along the offensive line. Wilson has never been a head coach at this level and I just can’t see this Wolf Pack team winning by double digits tonight. 8*

Rams/Bengals

Burrow and Stafford are a given; two dominant passers peaking at the right time, both with superlative targets. Lets look at the defenses, which is where this game will be decided. There are many recent positive improvements for the Rams defense; yards against and 3rd down conversions against are down, and they have been dominant in controlling time of possession. They have been tough on quarterbacks, but they are still only 21st in passing yards allowed. Burrow has been remarkably effective in spite of horrible O-line performance this season. I think the Rams defense will cramp his style but no one has been able to shut him down lately. Stafford may have his hands full as well. The Bengals defense is tough against the run but has been doing the job against the pass as well. They had 4 sacks against Mahomes last week, and pretty well shut down the Chiefs’ fierce pass attack in the second half last time out. They have only given up an average of 19 points a game in their last three against tough competition. The Rams are favored but the Bengals have been defying odds all season. This game will be close likely decided by a single field goal. Take the Bengals to surprise and cover once again.

The odds have reached a point where Cincinnati seems like a good option. It is a concern that the Chiefs can’t hold an opposing offense, in particular a passing offense, at bay. Burrow and Mahomes have been equally dynamic of late. Burrow will not face the kind of pressure he has endured in either of the last two weeks. The Chiefs have one of the worst defenses in terms of sacks in the league. The Bengals have already beaten the Chiefs in a meaningful game within the last 4 weeks, with great success in the air. A blowout by the Chiefs is highly unlikely. If this game goes as expected, it will likely be decided on one scoring drive or in overtime. I can see the Chiefs up to one touchdown, but after that, I am banking on the Bengals.

Bills face the Chiefs on Divisional game day. Let us get to the point, and make this short but sweet. Bills will win, and they will have their defense to thank. Two super-hot QBs face off, both in prime form. Mahomes has slightly better passing stats, but Allen is better protected and more of a running threat. I get that Mahomes can be a game changer, but Allen is no slouch in that department either. Give a slight nod to the Chiefs’ passing offense, if you will, but after than it is all about the Bills. They are better on both sides of the ball in the red zone, are 6th on avg. in the major rushing categories, and far superior on defense.

There was a stretch when the Chiefs held the opposition to under two touchdowns on defense, but that has not been the case lately. The Bills have the best defense against the run, and are first in too many categories to list here. The Bills’ O-line has been terrific this year, and their defense has savaged opposing Qbs at an average of 5+ over the last three games.  I really don't see Kansas City matching up well here. Yes, the Chiefs are at home this week but the Bills are playing like a team on a mission right now. Bills to cover, and very likely win.

The high-flying Bengals, led by star QB Joe Burrow, face a formidable ground-dwelling Titans team that likely features the return of the King, Derrick Henry. Burrow has put up the big numbers in spite of being sacked more than just about any QB in the league. The Titans’ defense sit 25th in passing yards given up, however they are much better in points allowed in the air (7th) and passing first downs. They will get to Burrow, but that hasn’t seemed to matter to his performance. The Bengals’ run defense, 7th for the season, has struggled lately, giving up 150+ yards on average in their last three games.

While this game could be close, I favor the Titans for several reasons. Running under all of the hype around the return of Henry, Tannehill has put together some good outings in his last games. The Bengals’ pass defense is well below average and their defensive line is seriously compromised by injuries. The Titans will have more of a flexible offense on Saturday, and have had very good success in the red zone. The Bengals have a very solid running back in Joe Mixon, but don’t use him much and the Titans’ run defense is very very tough. The Titans will struggle to contain Burrow and Co., but they don’t give up a lot of points and are 4th in red-zone defense. The Titans are healthy and well rested. The best defense against Burrow is to keep him off the field. I think the Titans will establish a run game against the Bengals and slow this game down. A healthy Henry would just be the icing on the cake. Look for the Titans to win and cover.

The Cardinals have been on a downward trend, losing 4 of 5, scoring less points and allowing considerably more over the last month. There is no defensive category where they have shown anything but a slide. Things are not much better on offense with far less passing yards, and far poorer results in the red zone. That is a lot of ship to right coming into the wildcard weekend. They are a good road team and beat the Cowboys on the road, but lets not forget that they lost badly on the road to the Lions.

The Rams have won 4 of 5, losing narrowly to the 49ers last week. Well, don’t they always lose to the 49ers? Much has been and should be made of Stafford’s ability to turn the ball over. He faced formidable pressure from the 49ers’ defense and was sacked 5 times. The Cardinals will not exert that kind of pressure on Stafford this week. The Rams’ defense are tough on the run, and very good at getting to the quarterback. They give up yards against the pass, but not necessarily points. They are much better in the red zone of late. They beat Arizona by 7 last time out. I don’t think it will be much different this week.

The Rams have the stars who can excel, Stafford being one of them. This is a critical game for some very big Rams reputations. I am wagering for LA to step up here. Take the Rams to win and cover.

The Chiefs crushed the Steelers just three weeks ago, winning by 26. The Steelers squeaked into the playoffs by the slimmest of margins, and all the talk about no pressure on the Steelers in this game doesn’t hide the fact that the Chiefs are a much better team with a recent history of playoff success.

The Steelers’ claim to fame is their pass defense, in particular Qb pressure, pass yards allowed and yards per attempt. That said, it is odd that against the good pass-first offenses they have played (Bengals, Chiefs, Chargers and Vikings) , all were losses and some by wide margins. As far as sacks go, the Chiefs are third in the league in protecting their QB, allowing just 1 sack per week over their last three games. TJ Watt was held in control in their last meeting, a rare occasion.

The Steelers are dead last against the run. Even though the Chiefs are best known as a pass-first offense, they have far greater balance this year and can run the ball very effectively. Mahomes will do whatever is needed under the circumstances to win a game. He is still one of the best rushing Qbs in the business.

The Chiefs’ defense gives up the eighth least points allowed, which is surprising as there is no one area in which they excel. They are healthy now, and we need to be reminded that they have held 6 of their last 9 opponents to under two Tds. The Steelers just don’t put many points on the board. With a very poor run game and a very average pass offense, I don’t expect them to surprise anyone on Sunday. Take the Chiefs to win and cover.

The Patriots face the Bills for a chance to move on, but looking carefully at the two teams’ last month’s performances, it seems unlikely that they can or will win this game. There has been a significant regression in the Patriots’ defensive performance, especially in the run, an aspect of the game that will likely figure prominently on a very cold day in Buffalo. Points allowed are way up, their ability to pressure QBs has declined, and their red zone defense has declined. This against a Bills team with the third highest points for. For a generally pass-first offense, the Bills have now passed the Patriots in rushing yards and rush yards/attempt. Allen has had excellent protection three weeks in a row.

As much as the Patriots’ defense has declined, the Bills’ defensive effort has soared. First in points allowed, dominant in all pass defense categories, they have also shown huge improvement in rush defense.

The Bills are very healthy; not so the Patriots, with numerous starters banged up. The Bills are on a roll and Allen is in good form. There are some questions around Patriots’ QB Jones lately, and the rookie QB faces a very tough defense in cold play-off conditions. Belichick or no, the Bills will win and cover..

The Raiders, off an inspiring win last week, squeaked into the playoffs, and now face a rested Bengals team. The pass-first Bengals offense comes in with Burrow at his peak, some solid receiving options, and a top 5 running back, a dual threat, who they probably under-use on the ground. Burrow is accurate, explosive and does not turn the ball over. The only issue with Burrow is the lack of protection he gets. The Bengals defense is middle of the pack. Their strengths are against the run, they give up yards but not necessarily points against the pass, and they can be effective in pressuring the QB. They have a definite advantage in turnovers, both on offense and defense.

The Raiders have presented a much more balanced attack in their last few games and it has been working for them. Carr might be playing second to Burrow, but his stats speak for themselves. The Raiders have relied much more on their running game lately, and have a good running back, also a twin threat, in Jacobs. On defense, the Raiders have given up a ton of points this season, but that has declined outside of last week. They have tightened up against the run, but do struggle against a strong pass-first offense such as the Bengals. The Raiders’ red zone defense is also an issue.

The Bengals beat the Raiders handily on the road earlier in the season. Cincinnati hasn’t won a playoff game in a very long time, so they are due. The Raiders did not have the benefit of a week off, and are on the road. I am wagering that the Bengals, a real offensive powerhouse in top form, to outscore the Raiders. Cincinnati to win and cover.

Neither SEC team had much difficulty winning on New Year’s Eve. Alabama beat Cincinnati 27-6 in one semifinal. Georgia beat Michigan 34-11 in the second semifinal. Now it’s a rematch of the SEC Championship Game, only this time a much bigger prize is on the line - the National Championship.

Alabama beat Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, 41-24 as a six-point underdog. The Crimson Tide are again underdogs here, although the line is obviously shorter. But it’s hard for me to shake what happened back on December 4th. I expect the Tide to win again here and give Nick Saban his seventh National Championship since coming to Tuscaloosa (and third in the past five years). 

Bama’s offense is simply way better than any other that Georgia has faced this year. The Tide account for nearly one-third of the points allowed by the Bulldogs’ defense this season. 

The SEC Championship is the only time Alabama has been an underdog in many, many years. It’s a little surprising that the oddsmakers don’t have them favored for this rematch. They have dominated Georgia, winning the previous seven matchups. The last time Bama lost to Georgia was Saban’s first season here, which was 2007, the last season where the Tide weren’t ranked #1 at some point. 

Georgia has not covered the spread in back-to-back games since starting the year out at 5-1 ATS. Alabama is clearly a “psychological hurdle” for them and one they are unlikely to clear on the 10th. Take the points with ALABAMA.

The Saints are still in the playoff picture and the Falcons aren’t. All the talk of the Falcons as spoilers is nothing like the impetus of still playing for the post season. This and the Saints’ absolutely dominant defense, arguably the best against the run and hugely improved vs the pass of late, will push the Saints past the Falcons.

As much as the Saints defense has improved, the Falcons’ defense has regressed. They are bottom 6 in points allowed, red zone defense, and 32nd and slipping in Qb sacks. They allowed 175 yards rushing over their last three games. Their offense is also trending down, averaging just 16 points scored over their last three games. Ryan has been sacked 37 times, including 5 last week.

Will the Saints cover? They bumped their points-for up to 18 last week. Hill should have plenty of protection, and did get something going with two of his receivers, Kamara and Callaway. He is a big threat to run and the Falcons don’t fare well against a QB who can run. The Saints are healthier than they have been, and have a solid rush attack, possibly including Ingram as well as Kamara. While I am not expecting a blow-out, I am wagering on the Saints to cover as well as win.

The Titans face the Texans in a key game for their play off hopes. They are playing for a bye week, and with their “ultra RB’ Henry near a return, it would be very significant win. The Titans will leave nothing to chance with the memory of a very poor effort against the Texans still strong.

The Titans defense was absolutely formidable last week, holding Miami to 3 points. They are healthier, with all defensive categories markedly improved over the last three weeks. The Texans’ defense is particularly poor vs. the run; last in yards allowed and 2nd last in rush tds allowed. This kind of performance is obviously a very poor match with the Titans’ strengths. Even without Henry, the Titans’ run-first offense has been taking great strides, averaging 163 yards a game in their last three starts.

Tannehill will remember his last game vs Houston as he was sacked 7 times. The Texans don’t generally apply that much pressure. Look for the Tennessee O-line to do a better job of protection, with Tannehill only throwing as needed. Rookie David Mills appears to be settling in with the Texans, but will likely face intense pressure on game day.

I am wary of a wide spreads in week 18, but I think the Titans will be all in until the end on this one. Who knows what kind of effort to expect from the Texans? I am confident that the Titans will win and cover on Sunday.

We’ve seen a pretty substantial line move here due to the fact LSU lost its QB (transfer portal) and two of its top defensive players (opt outs). The Tigers will also have an interim coach after Ed Oregeron was dismissed in favor of Brian Kelly. But even so, LSU has more talent than Kansas State and I’ll gladly grab the points in the Texas Bowl.

Kansas State is 7-5 but lost its last two games in pretty feeble fashion. They went down 20-10 to Baylor and 22-17 to Texas. The Wildcats are also dealing with turnover on the coaching staff as they’ll have a new offensive coordinator for Tuesday’s game. Also, QB Skyler Thompson suffered a lower leg injury late in the year. Can’t count on him being the same, even if he does decide to play here. 

Kansas State’s best win this year was probably … West Virginia? They won just two games away from home and one of them was by a single point. The other was at Kansas. The offense has averaged less than 300 yards in its last three games.

It will be interesting to see if LSU elects to start Garrett Nussmeier, a decision that would cost the QB his redshirt season. Regardless, I expect the Tigers that do suit up to really play hard as they look to impress the incoming coaching staff. If LSU had its full complement of players, they would win this game in blowout fashion. Even down a few, they should still keep it close at the very worst. Take LSU plus the points

Vikings/Packers

I released this wager early and have a very favorable line personally. I still do really like this play though. 

The Vikes are down and out after last weekend's 30-23 loss to LA. Kirk Cousins had 315 yards and a TD, but Cousins is now out because of COVID protocol. Sean Mannion is the backup and I just can see him stepping up on such short notice and being productive whatsoever.

Green Bay is now in the drivers seat in the NFC and this is an opportunity that I expect Aaron Rogers and company to take advantage of. The Packers are just a game up on Dallas, who owns the tiebreaker, and the Rams and Bucs are also just behind. 

Also note, Minnesota won't have TE and offensive star Adam Thelien playing either. This one is a "no brainer." Lay the points. 8* PACKERS

Comparing a team’s stats in their last few games to their seasons’ average can be informing. Looking at the Panthers’ defensive numbers, I’d say they’ve already broken out the golf clubs. The Panthers’ rush defense has not been up to much all season, but the pass defense was solid. In their past few games, their effectiveness has plummeted, which is good new for the Saints. The Saints have a running game with Kamara back and Hill at QB, but they need all the help they can get on pass offense. This will be as complete a lineup as the Saints have had in some time, so it will be interesting to see if they can put up more than 14 points, which is what they have averaged lately. The Saints defense has yet to stumble this year; top of the heap in red zone defense, great rushing defense and improving pass defense. Carolina doesn’t put up many points on the board, and again, that number has also tanked lately. The QB position has been an adventure, and their rushing yards are in decline.

This is a rare opportunity for the Saints to put some points on the board, and help out their dwindling chances for a wild card spot. It is really a meaningless game for the Panthers other than for draft position, and an away game at that. I believe the Saints formidable defense will stymie the Panthers’ suspect offense. Take the Saints to win and cover.

The Bills are running hot and are fairly healthy, which is saying a lot. Allen is the QB of the moment with his fine performance last week, and he is up against a Falcons pass defense that is 23rd in yards allowed and 32nd in sacks. Giving Allen that kind of friendly environment will likely lead to a high total. The Falcons’ run defense is also on the average side, allowing more than 125 yds over their last three games. The Bills have averaged 135 rushing yards over their last three games, even though they are a pass-first offense. Singletary and Allen give the Bills much more flexibility in their running game.

The Falcons aren’t scoring a ton of points, and they struggle badly against good teams. I remember vividly their 25 -0 loss to the Patriots, who the Bills beat up on last week.  Atlanta's run game is worst in the league and sinking fast. Ryan is a competent QB, but he will be up against the league’s best pass defense, both in yards and yards/attempt.

The Falcons have covid issues, much more at the moment than the Bills. Atlanta has been blown out more than a couple of times this year. Sunday’s game might just be one more nail in the playoff coffin.

The points are high but I believe the Bills will win and cover.

The Raiders face the Colts in a crucial game with both teams hit with some severity by covid. QB Wentz could be out for the Colts, which is not quite such a loss in the Colts’ run-first offense. Wentz was solid last week, but many weeks Wentz is not as prominent. Untested rookie Sam Ehlinger will likely replace him. The Colts’ O line has protected their passer effectively this year. One wrinkle in the mix is that Ehlinger is much more of a run threat than Wentz.

Can the Colts still win and cover? No one has stopped Jonathon Taylor, and while Vegas has shown improvement in rush defense, they have not faced anyone like him. Of note, the Raiders are the very worst red-zone defenders in the NFL. The Raiders’ pass defense has been solid in yards allowed but they do allow more than their share of points, they don’t pressure Qbs especially well, and they don’t create many turnovers.

The Colts defense has shown real improvement, giving up more than 17 points only once in their last 6 games, while facing very stiff competition. The Raiders are a pass-first offense, with Derek Carr the focus. Carr is banged up, which might account for the significant drop in passing yards over the last few games. The Raiders will again be missing Waller again this week. The Colts don’t pressure Qbs so much which is good because the Raiders are middle of the road in protecting Carr. The Colts are very adept at creating turnovers, while the Raiders give up the ball a lot.

Much has been made of the loss of Wentz, but the Raiders are the more depleted of the two teams. The Colts have been terrific against the spread this year, and overpowering of late. I’m betting on the Colts to again win and cover.

There is very little good news on the injury front for a very disrupted WFT. Heinicke is beaten up and in the dog house, and top running back Gibson is out. This is a blow for a team struggling to put meat on the table (so to speak). The Football Team is up against a surging Eagles team, winners of 5 of 6 games, and needing a win to solidify their playoff hopes.

The Eagles are top in the NFL with the run. Howard is questionable, but with the other backs and Hurts in the equation, they should be in good form. The Football Team is 8th in the league against the run but very much in freefall lately, allowing over 150 yards rushing in their last three games. Other than QB pressure, Washington is very poor against the pass. While the Eagles don’t rely on their passing game, Hurts has seen his QB stats climb lately.

The Football team will have their hands full against an increasingly tough Eagles defense. Only 1 team in the last 8 has run for +100 yards against them, and they are top 10 in all of the pass defense categories other than sacks. They have been very stingy in points allowed, averaging just 15 over the last three games.

In “what have you done lately” terms, this game is all Eagles. They beat the Football Team by 10 points 2 weeks ago, and I can’t see that Washington is in any better shape now. Barring a major underestimation by the Eagles, this game should be theirs for the taking. Take Philadelphia to win and cover.

Utah/Ohio State

Utah won't be rolling over here. The Utes have won six straight and all signs point to a possible big upset here as well. Most recently Utah beat Oregon 38-10 in the PAC 12 Championship, while Ohio State enters off a 42-27 loss to Michigan as a 6.5-point favorite. 

Utah has lost its last two bowl games, putting an added motivation incentive here. Overall the Utes averaged 35.1 PPG, while allowing 20.9. QB Cameron Rising had 2,279 yards, 18 TD's and only five INT's.

With their nine-game win streak in the rear-view mirror, I believe the Buckeyes are ripe for the picking tonight. Ohio State and CJ Stroud average 45.5 PPG, while allowing 20.9. 

The Utes have won of the best running games in the country, averaging more than 200 yards per game. The Buckeyes have been great defensively (again) all season, but note that they're just 2-7 ATS in their last nine off a SU/ATS loss in which it conceded 40 or more points in.

This one comes down to the wire, so let's grab the points! Utah 10* GAME OF MONTH. 

Pittsburgh/Michigan State

I absolutely  believe that this one favors the 11-2 Pittsburgh Panthers. Michigan State is only the "home" team on paper. 

The Panthers were 5-0 on the road this year, while MSU was just 4-2. The Panthers won the the ACC title, while the Spartans finished in third in the Big Ten East. 

Pittsburgh is led by QB Kenny Pickett, who had 4,319 passing yards, 42 touchdowns and seven interceptions. The Panthers average 40.2 PPG, while allowing 24.4. Pickett is gone for the draft, but I don't expect much of a drop off here with Nick Patti, who completed 85.7 percent of his passes for 140 yards.

The Spartans are led by Payton Thorne, who had 2,886 passing yards, 24 touchdowns and nine interceptions. MSU averages 31 PPG, while allowing 26.6. MSU will be without star RB Kenneth Walker III though.

Both teams were great in stopping the run, but the Panthers finished with 51 sacks this season, which was second in the nation.

Look for Pittsburgh to grind out a win here. 8* BOWL PLAY on Pittsburgh. 

You won’t know the players (and coaches) without a program in this one. Both teams are off disappointing ends to their years, losing head coaches to other institutions, and key players to the NFL draft, not to mention demoralizing losses. Oregon may also be affected by covid. The Ducks looked very poor against Utah (twice), and will have a long way to come back to make this game competitive. The Ducks run game and QB. Brown’s effectiveness took a real hit in their last games. Losing their best defensive player is troubling. The Ducks’ offense is very young. It will be tough to adjust to the changes.

The Sooners have lost key defensive pieces as well. Young QB Caleb Williams had a tough time of late but spent a lot of time on his back; he was pressured mercilessly in his last two games. The Ducks do not pressure the QB particularly well, and will be without their best pass rusher. Look for Williams to bounce back and step it out on the National stage. The Sooners have the benefit of a very experienced “guest” head coach, which may be of some motivation. I am on the Sooners to win and cover. Don’t delay on this one!

WVU/Minnesota

This one is going to be close. I mean, I expect this one to be decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last. THAT close!

WVU is gunning for its third straight win. It most recently beat Kansas by a score of 34-28 as 15.5-point favorites. 

The Gophers finished 8-4, while WVU was 6-6. Minnesota beat Wisconsin 23-13 as 7-point dogs in their finale.

Minnesota averages 26.5 PPG, while WVU averages 23.3.

The Gophers have the upper-hand defensively, conceding 18.3, while the Mountaineers allow 26.5.

I like Jarret Doege to test this Minnesota secondary and to at the very least, have his team competitive until the final moments. 8* BOWL play ON WVU. 

Even after their shutout against the Bucanneers,  there is still the Saints' 9 point offense to consider, and that was with their quarterback and some other key pieces who will be missing this week.  Now the Saints are down to their 3rd or 4th string QB.  A Saints win would make a great Disney feature, but lets face it; "this ain't no movie", as the song goes. 

The Saints defense has dominant last week, and has been their strong suit all season.  The Dolphins allowed 24 points to the Jets, but this was not a result for the Dolphins.  In their previous 5 games they allowed an average of around 12 points per game, while reeling off 5 staight wins.

Tagovailoa has improved over the course of the season, and has been accurate and well protected of late. The Dolphins have shown dramatic improvement in offense. Here are a pair of stats to compare: Dolphins have scored 28 points on average in their last three games compared to 18 for the Saints. The Dolphins have an 81 scoring % in the red zone over the last two weeks, compared to the Saints’ 28% rate.

It appears to have been a doomed season for the Saints. They are depleted once again, and we saw  where that got them earlier in the year. Take the Dolphins to win and cover.

WMU/Nevada

These team's end of season numbers are similar, but WMU faced the more difficult overall schedule.

The Western Michigan Broncos average 30 PPG, while allowing 28.6. Nevada averages 36.7 PPG, while allowing 24.4. 

Each is led by a dynamic, playmaking QB. WMU has Kaleb Eleby, who finished with 3,115 yards passing, 21 TD's and five interceptions. Nevada is led by Carson Strong, who finished with 4,186 yards passing, 36 TD's and eight INT's. 

Nevada will also have an interim coach here in Vau Taua, who will fill in for Jay Norvell, who has already taken off for the Colorado State head coaching job.

WMU's entire roster will essentially be on the field of play today as well. Look for that to be a big difference-maker and lay the points. 10* COACHES CORNER on WMU. 

The numbers have dropped to a more reasonable level in the WTF/Cowboys game.  The WFT must be thinking "WTF" after their last couple of weeks.  Although players, including Heinicke, are returning, the team is still suffering the effects of Covid, a very short turnaround, 2 demoralizing losses, and an away game.  The Cowboys are healthier, at home, and no doubt still motivated.  Prescott is a few weeks past his return and was looking better last week.  The WFT excels nowhere on offense and may be missing their best runningback. Their defense had been very solid against the run this season but has regressed significantly lately. Other than pressuriing the passer, their pass defense is among the worst in the league.

Dallas' defense has gone from worst to almost first this season; the unexpected powerhouse of this team.  Look for a more settled offense to return to early season form.  The Cowboys have been good against the spread for most of the season.  Now that the points are out of the double figures, take the Cowboys to win and cover.

The Bills face New England in a critical game for both teams. The Patriots ran all over the Bills in their last windswept meeting, but weather, with possible snow, may still be a factor this time out. Covid may also be a factor with the Bills especially depleted.

After allowing a very uncharacteristic 27 points to the Colts, look for the Patriots’ defense to bounce back this week. Josh Allen is hampered by a foot injury, which may affect his usual mobility. The Patriots’ pass defense is tough on pass offenses, with low yards allowed and good QB pressure stats.

The Bills defense is very strong against the pass, but has been run on lately. Other than last week, QB pressure is not their strong point. The New England O line has protected Jones very well lately, while Allen has been sacked with frequency, specially last game.

Enter Belichik, New England’s thirteenth man. He and the Patriots are off a loss; two in a row is not a part of the plan. This game could be close, but a hampered Allen, the Bills covid issues, and the Bills’ uneven season sway me towards the Patriots. New England to win and cover.

Colts/Cardinals  

If you took the Cardinals' stats for the last three games and compared them to NFL season averages, they would be in the bottom 10 % of the league.  This, against the Lions, Bears and Raiders.  This would appear to be a serious downturn rather than a fly on the windshield.  On the other side, the Colts are peaking, with dramatically better performance across the board over the same period against much tougher competition (NE, Houston, Tampa Bay).

If Arizona has any chance to bounce back on Saturday, it will be up to Murray and his targets, as the Colts are very tough to run against.  Murray has not looked himself in his last two games and the Cardinals' pass yards and completion % have plummeted.  The Colts' offense is all about Taylor and the run, with Wentz performing as needed.  Curiously, Wentz has more pass TDs than Murray, with minimal interceptions.  The Colts' O line has protected their QB better than has Arizonas'. The Colts are very good on the road while the Cardinals, even when hot, have been indifferent at home. 

Yes, the Cardinals could bounce back on Saturday, but i wouldn't count on it.  Take the Colts to stay the course. Colts + anything should work.  A sizable win would not astonish me.

It is a tough call on the Seahawks/ Rams game, because of the Covid disruption. The Seahawks defense has shown real improvement lately in points allowed, red zone protection and rushing yards allowed. Their run offense has climbed dramatically, and Russel has looked back in form. How will they fare against the Rams? Much depends on who is playing today so it will be a last minute decision. The Rams are all about pass offense, with Stafford and Cupp front and center. It is not that the Rams never run, but they are 25th in the league at the moment, so winning against the Rams means controlling the pass. The Seahawks are not successful in QB pressure,(29th rated). They are worst in the league in pass yards allowed and there has been no sign of improvement lately. The Rams are not a warm and fuzzy matchup for the Seahakwks defense.

Kent/Wyoming

It's the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. The Golden Flashes finished 7-6 and first in the MAC East Division. The Cowboys were 6-6 and finished fourth in the Mountain Division of the MWC.

Kent averages 30.3 PPG, while the Cowboys average only 23.5. The Golden Flashes have struggled defensively, but they catch a big break here facing this stagnant Cowboys' offense. 

Wyoming dropped six of its last final eight games. Sean Chambers is going to have to shoulder the load here with the Golden Flashes stacking the box. Chambers threw more INT's than TD's this year. 

The Cowboys have one of the worst run defenses in the country, which plays right into Kent's strength on the offensive side.

I think the outright is possible, but let's grab the points. 8* SPECIAL on Kent. 

Saints/Buccaneers.

The Saints meet up with the Bucs sporting an impressive recent history against them. Can they continue their unlikely dominance against the immensely talented Brady and Co? Probably not. Can they keep this game close? Yes, and here is why.

The Saints have struggled this season and have had severe injury issues. In week 15, their three very good rush options (Hill, Kamara, Ingram) are all healthy. And yes, you can run on the Bucs. While third in defense against the run for the season, the Bucs’ rush defense has degraded of late, both in yards allowed, yards per carry, and points allowed of late. In addition, they have a hard time against a QB who can run. I think the Saints’ healthy and diverse run offense will have success against the Bucs.

It is unlikely that they will completely control Brady, but with an established run game, they can keep him off the field. The Buccaneers have become somewhat less of a pass first offense of late, but RB Fournette is questionable or compromised this week. The Saints defense has been very good against the run and best in the league at red zone defense. Their pass defense has improved dramatically of late. They have been able to get to Brady in the past, although the Bucs’ O line is generally very solid.. If they can key on Brady, they can prevent a blowout.

The Bucs’ defense is only average against the pass, but very good in QB pressure. The second key is whether Hil can establish enough of a passing game to be effective.

The Saints need a win here to stay in the running. A win is unlikely but I am counting on them to keep this game close. Take the Saints with the points.

The Broncos are off a lopsided win, the Bengals off a pair of losses. This is THE game to ante in or fold for both teams, in what will likely be a very close match up. At QB, the young dynamic Burrow gets the nod over Bridgewater, but with a couple of caveats. Burrow has been sacked an astounding 41 times, and has thrown for too many interceptions. Still, he is very cool under fire, and very good against the blitz.

Both teams have solid run offenses. The Broncos have been “runnin’ fools” in the last 3 weeks. The Broncos are a run-first offense, and that is unlikely to change on Sunday, which plays to the Bengals’ strength on defense. Forcing Bridgewater to throw will likely be a Bengals focus.

Denver’s defense is strong against the pass and great in the red zone. Some teams have run on them and they are only average in QB pressure, which might be a break for Burrow. The Bengals defense does two things very well. They apply pressure to opposing QBs, and as noted are very strong against the run.

This game will be close, and likely hinges on turnovers. If the Bengals control their turnovers, they win outright. While the Broncos are solid in ball control, I still like the explosiveness of a Burrow-led Bengals offense. Take the Bengals with the points.

Cardinals/Lions

This is a very lopsided match-up with an equally large point spread. I can’t see the Cardinals not taking the Lions seriously. I think the reverse is more likely. After a tough loss and a blow to their collective egos, I see the Cardinals out for blood, with no mercy shown. Looking at games where Arizona has played the NFL lesser lights, there have been some very big margins. The stats are remarkably one sided; there is no one area that the Lions excel in for them to take any purchase on keeping this game close. A couple of key stats: red zone success- Arizona, 3rd, Detroit, 31st, and sacks- Cardinals 6th and climbing, Lions 31st. Murray will have lots of protection but it could be a very long evening for Goff.

The Lions lost by 28 against Denver last week. As much as this is a large spread, I think the Cardinals will win and cover. Expect a similar result to week 14

UL Lafayette/Marshall

This is the New Orleans Bowl. While the outright is possible, let's grab the points.

This is a neutral site game, but Lafayette should have more fans in the stands because of the proximity, but regardless I like the underdog in this one. The Herd finished 7-5. Marshall averages 34 points per game, while allowing 22.8.

The No. 17 Ragin Cajuns beat App State 24-16 in the Sun Belt Conferece Championship game. UL Lafayette averages 30.7 PPG, while allowing 18.3.

The Herd have the offense to keep pace and their defense will be one of hte best that the Cajuns have faced all season.

I expect a war until the final horn. 10* PLAYBOOK on Marshall. 

Patriots/Colts

The Patriots are 7-0 in recent games. All the wins have one thing in common; their opponents just don’t score enough points to win. Patriots’ QB Mac Jones has shown remarkable poise and improvement in his first year. Off a bye and 3 pass win against the Bills, Jones’ arm will be well rested if nothing else. Lets see if he can shine against an average Colts pass defense.

The Colts are on a win one-lose one pattern, but have been piling up and allowing points in a big way, mostly scoring on the back of Jonathon Taylor. Controlling Taylor will be the key for the Patriots. The Patriots have a solid run defense and Belichick has had a week and a half to come up with a plan. The Patriots do give up some rushing yards, but they are best in the league in fewest rushing points allowed.

It will not be easy for Colts QB Wentz on Saturday. Wentz has been OK for the Colts and has shown some improvement lately, but he will be up against a very tough Patriots’ pass defense. Over the last three games, NE’s passing yards allowed have dropped from a seasonal average of 195 to 113 yards allowed. They are 9th in sacks, and very solid pressuring the passer.

While the Colts have Taylor, the Patriots’ have a trio of good options up against the Colts’ middle of the road run defense.

It is hard to bet against the Patriots, but as a slight underdog, it would not be wise. Look for them to reign in Taylor to some degree. If this happens, I don’t see Wentz picking up the slack. Patriots