The set-up: Is Aaron Rodgers the better QB in this matchup? At this point of their careers, I'd say that's the case. That said, on any given night, clearly Tom Brady has enough left in the tank to beat any team or person on the planet. This game isn't going to be decided though by Brady and Rodgers. Night in and night out, we almost always know what we can expect from these two legends. I think each will be on top of his game. For me, this one is going to be decided by defense, special teams and the Bucs superior run game. The Rams ran out of gas last weekend, but the Bucs come to town full of energy and on a mission. 

The pick: Note as well that the Packers are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine after allowing 20 points or less in a SU/ATS home victory in their last outing. I think the Bucs can control this game through all three phases and while I do expect an outright victory, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. 

The is an 8* ROUT on the Bucs.

The set-up: I got down early and have an unfavorable line, as shortly after taking Cleveland, it was announced that few players, including its head coach, had COVID. The bulk of Cleveland's talent will be on the field of play and clearly the Browns will be out for an outright upset here. These two teams know each other intimately. The Steelers stumbled down the stretch, but managed to win in Week 17. Pittsburgh has a couple COVID issues as well. 

The pick: The Browns have an offense which can keep pace with any team in the league. Cleveland's defense is also underrated in my opinion. I'm expect this one to come down to whichever of these division rivals has its hands on the ball last, so in that scenario, I'm definitely grabbing up the points!

This is a 9* BLOOD-BATH on the Cleveland Browns.

The set-up: Tampa Bay has a great defense and it's offense is dynamic and experienced as well. The issue for Bruce Arians at times is making all those pieces work together at the same time. Washington finished the regular season 7-9, but it closed the regular season by going 4-1. The success of Tampa Bay though will 100% come down to how well Tom Brady does against Washington's stiff defensive front. 

The pick: Tampa has many injured as well, as note that questionable for Saturday are Carlton Davies, LeSean McCoy and Jason Pierre-Paul. Mike Evans is listed as probable. Cornerback Carlton Davis, linebacker Devin White, and defensive tackle Jeremiah Ledbetter are all out. I can't see Tampa holding onto a big lead, or running up the score if it has a lead late. I'm banking on the home side doing enough to earn a comfortable cover in this one. Grab the points.

This is an 8* DESTROYER on the Washington Football Team.

The set-up: These teams split their regular season games, with LA winning 23-16, and the Hawks reciprocating at home in a 20-9 win in the regular season finale. Interestingly, in both games the Rams won the time of possession. The Rams have the playoff defense to keep this one close late, conceding only 18.5 PPG. Jared Goff has the ability to make plays and this Rams' run game can eat up clock as well. 

The pick: Seattle has one advantage here, Russell Wilson. Granted, that's a big advantage, but I think LA's pass rush is formidable enough to keep him in check like when these team's met the firs time (really, Wilson was pretty much contained in Week 17 as well.) I think this one comes down to the wire, so I'm grabbing the points.

This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on the LA Rams.

The set-up: The Colts have the offense and the defense to hang with Buffalo. The Bills weakness is their ground game. Their defense wasn't great all year, but it did well down the stretch of the regular season. The Colts finished second in the NFL in stopping the run, so the task for the visiting side will be to get to Josh Allen, who is admittedly having a great year. 

The pick: The Bills weakness defensively was stopping the run, so expect to see a heavy-dose of Colts' RB Jonathan Taylor, who is as versatile running the ball, as he is catching it. I think experience does matter at this point, so Rivers has a small advantage in that department. I think this one comes right down to the wire and therefore, I'm grabbing the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Indianapolis Colts.

The set-up: New Orleans is the No. 2 seed in the NFC, one game behind Green Bay, who holds the tie-breaker after beating the Saints earlier in the year. New Orleans is tied with Seattle at 11-4 and it holds the tiebreaker over the Hawks. Carolina won't be in the playoffs, as it's 5-10. The Panthers though relished the role of playing spoiler last week, snapping a three-game slide with a competitive 20-13 win over Washington. 

The pick: Teddy Bridgewater has one last chance to impress today for the Panthers and he'll try to deal a blow to the Saints playoff positioning and take advantage of a team which will be without its entire starting RB group. I think New Orleans gets caught flat-footed here and I like the home side to deliver. The outright is possible, but grab as many points as you can.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on the Carolina Panthers.

The set-up: A&M averages 31.67 PPG and it allows 21.1. UNC averages 43.0 PPG, while allowing 28.36. Both teams are dealing with injury issues and with players opting out of this game to prepare for the NFL draft, but I still think that Texas A&M is a bit of a fraud. The SEC overall had a down year and the Aggies numbers are skewed a bit in my opinion. UNC's offense is potent and it's faced some of the best defenses around. 

The pick: A&M is good, but not good enough to be the fifth ranked team in the nation. I'll point out as well that UNC is 7-2 ATS in its last nine as an underdog in the 7 to 9.5 points range. Look for these two hungry teams to battle tooth and nail until the final moments and make sure to grab as many points as you can.

This is a 10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on North Carolina.

The set-up: NC State won each of its last four games, including over Florida State, Liberty, Syracuse and Georgia Tech. Kentucky on the other hand lost four of its last five. I like Bailey Hockman in this matchup, as Kentucky's secondary and defense overall is banged up. 

The pick: NC State is also 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. teams with losing records and 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 bowl games. The Wildcats only scored an average of 21.7 PPG this year and I think they'll have trouble keeping pace down the stretch. Grab the points.

This is a 9* PLAY-BOOK on NC State.

The set-up: This is the second game of the College Football Playoff Semifinal. Clemson has faced the 36th toughest schedule and Ohio State has faced the 67th. Ohio State beat Northwestern 22-10 to win the Big Ten Championship, while Clemson won the ACC crown with a 34-10 win over Notre Dame. This game features two of the best QB's in the nation in Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence. The Buckeyes average 42.5 PPG, and they concede 21, while Clemson averages 44.9 PPG, while allowing 17.5. 

The pick: Clemson though is interestingly just 1-4 ATS in its last five after postin more than 450 total yards in its previous game, while Ohio State is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 as an underdog. This is the first non-conferece game for each team and I think that Fields has the offense to keep this one close and competitive until the final moments. I'm grabbing the points.

This is a 10* BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR on Ohio State.

The set-up: The Badgers snapped a three-game slide with a 20-17 win over Minnesota in their finale and I think they're going to find a way to get the job done here as well. The Demon Deacons enter having lost back-to-back games, including a humbling 45-21 loss to Louisville as one point favorites last time out. Wake has a good offense, which averaged 37 PPG, but it was atrocious defensively, allowing 31.6. Sam Hartman was a bright spot for the Wake, finishing with 1,906 passing yards, ten TD's and just one INT. 

The pick: Wisconsin only averaged 22.3 PPG, but it made up for it on the other end by playing "lights out" defense, conceding just 15.7 PPG this year. Graham Mertz finished with eight TD's and five interceptions this season, but note that the Badgers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after allowing 18 points or less in a SU victory in their last outing. I think Wisconsin effectively slows down Wake and I look for Mertz to take advantage of this extremely bad Wake secondary. Lay the points!

This is a 10* play on Wisconsin.

The set-up: Oklahoma State was 7-3 in Big 12 play. The Cowboys alternated wins and losses over the final month. Miami was 8-2 overall. The Hurricanes were on a five-game win streak before a 62-26 loss to UNC in their last game. The Cowboys have a strong run game, but Miami's rush defense is decent. Overall Oklahoma State averages 29.5 PPG, while allowing 21.9. QB Spencer Sanders though heads into this game without the services of top RB Chuba Hubbard. 

The pick: Miami averaged 34 PPG. QB D'Eriq King had 2,573 passing yards, 22 touchdowns and five interceptions. The Hurricanes allowed 26.0 PPG and I'd argue that their schedule was much more difficult than they Cowboys. With a spread like this, clearly the oddsmakers think these teams are very evenly matched. While I respect the OK State rushing game, I think Miami's big line will contain that aspect and turn the Cowboys one-dimensional. I like King to post a big game here as well. I'm on the Hurricanes.

This is a 10* BLOWOUT on Miami.

The set-up: The Patriots are eliminated. Cam Newton is going to be the only motivated player on the field for New England today. The Patriots have nothing to play for over the last two games, and they can't even really play spoiler here, as Buffalo has already clinched. Instead, I give the Bills the huge edge in being the more "motivated" team in this matchup. Buffalo won the first matchup and after being the "red headed step-child" of the division for so long, and after suffering so many beatdowns at the hands of the Pats over the years, I look for this visiting organization to lay down a can of whoop ass that none of us have witnessed in quite a while. Buffalo is simply the better team in every respect and I don't see it having any sort of letdown in enemy territory today. 

The pick: It's interesting to note as well that New England is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five games played in the month of December, while Buffalo is 5-0 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory. With a chance to humiliate the Patriots on their home field, I look for the Bills to do just that!

This is a 10* AFC EAST BEST OF THE BEST on the Buffalo Bills.

The set-up: Baltimore has a "cream puff" final regular season game at Cincinnati and I think it gets caught looking ahead to that contest and takes the foot off the gas in the second half of this game. The Giants on the other hand come in absolutely desperate, needing a win or they'll be eliminated from contention. Last week they lost by 14 points to the Browns. QB Daniel Jones is expected to return. 

The pick: Baltimore crushed Jacksonville 40-14 last weekend. The Ravens are 9-4 and are back on track, but consistency has plagued LaMar Jackson and company all season long. If the Ravens have a lead in the second half, there's no need for them to run up this score, instead they'll be trying to avoid mistakes and injuries and kill the clock. New York will be aiming for the end zone on every drive and because of that, I expect this game to be much closer than what this spread would suggest.

This is a 9* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the New York Giants.

The set-up: I'm primarily a situational handicapper and I think this one sets up well for the home side to pull off the minor upset at home this weekend. The Raiders are in "do or die" mode, as a loss here will eliminate them from contention. Miami also needs victories to keep its playoff hopes alive, but I think that's asking a lot of this young team on the road today, especially with a rookie QB. Derek Carr and the Raiders have a capable offense and I expect to see Gruden have his team prepared today. 

The pick: I'll point out as well that Las Vegas is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games as an underdog in the +2.5 to +4.5 points range. I like the desperate home side to dig deep and deliver on Saturday night.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Las Vegas Raiders.

The set-up: Are the Rams the better team? Of course. Is this a trap game for the home side? I definitely think that's the case as well. The Jets are 0-13. The odds that they'll go 0-16 are greater than if they'll go 1-16. Do you think New York could possibly be happy at this point? Yes, the Jets are planning for next year, but no team wants to go winless. The Rams on the other hand have a game at Seattle next weekend, followed by a home matchup vs. the Cardinals to end the regular season. In my opinion, this is definitely a "trap" for the home side and I think the Rams will fall right into it.

The pick: Additionally note that the Rams are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine after holding their previous opponent to three or less points in a SU/ATS victory. There's no need for LA to run up the score in the second half of this contest whatsoever. Instead, if it does have a lead, it'll look to kill clock, limit turnover and injuries and get ready to face the Seahawks. No outright, but closer than expected. 

This is a 9* BLOOD-BATH on the New York Jets.

The set-up: These teams are moving in opposite directions. San Francisco has dropped two straight and with a loss today, it'll be officially eliminated from contention. It's been an uphill battle for the 49ers this year, who come to town without their starting QB and several other key players on both sides of the ball. With the rest of the division healthy and playing well, I think the 49ers throw in the white flag here early. 

The pick: Dallas snapped a two-game slide with a 30-7 win over the Bengalas last weekend. The Cowboys are in such a weak division, that if they win today and the other three teams lose, then they're going to be back in the drivers seat (and that's a very real possibility, as Philly is in Arizona, the Giants are at home to a smoking hot Browns team, and Washington is at home to the Seahawks without Alex Smith under center. The Cowboys have plenty of talent on the offensive side of the ball and backup Andy Dalton finally seems to be getting up to speed. The Dallas defense looked better last weekend too and now it faces another offense with its back up QB under center. This one has blowout written all over it in my opinion, but may as well grab the points.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Dallas Cowboys.

The set-up: Alabama is really good. Great offense, great defense and it's well coached as well. Florida also has a really good offense and a decent defense. Florida lost to LSU last time out and even with a win today, it wouldn't make the College Football Playoff. But the Gators would love nothing more than to hand the Tide their first loss of the season. Despite the loss to LSU last weekend, QB Kyle Trask still had 474 yards passing and two TD's. The Bama defense has been sharp of late, but the unit has yet to see an offense quite as dynamic as this.

The pick: Mac Jones is in line for the Heisman now, but for a few weeks Trask was in the conversation as well. With one last chance to impress, I like Trask to help his team keep this one interesting late. Note as well that Florida is 8-2 ATS in its last ten after allowing 35 points or more in a SU/ATS loss in its previous outing. As I mentioned off the top, I don't predict an outright upset, but everything does point to this one being much more competitive than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points.

This is a 10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on Florida.

The set-up: Buffalo comes in off three straight wins, but after beating Pittsburgh 26-15 at home last weekend, and with a game at New England on the 28th up next, before its season finale against Miami, I do believe this sets up as a bit of a trap for the visiting side. 

The pick: The Broncos won't be in the post-season, but they're playing strnog down the stretch. Last weekend they posted a 32-27 road win at Carolina, proving that they're trying to finish off on a positive note. Denver has the ability to affect the playoffs and I think that's a big motivational factor. It also plays with revenge after losing this game 20-2 last season. Buffalo has not played well defensively, allowing 27.6 PPG and I think it'll struggle to contain this hungry home side. The outright is possible, but in the end grab the points.

This is a 10* SUPER-SPECIAL on the Denver Broncos.

The set-up: This game reminds me a lot of the Cowboys at the Bengals last weekend. Both teams had been ravaged by injury and on and off field issues. Also plenty of COVID related problems as well. I had a play on the Cowboys, as I reckoned they were the much "hungrier" team. I also felt that despite their win/loss record, the Cowboys absolutely had the better talent on the field of play as well in that matchup. And that's almost exactly the case here as well, except I'd argue that the Raiders look a lot better than the Cowboys through all three phases this year and their 7-6 record proves that. The Raiders season is on the line here. This is a "must win" game for Las Vegas, easily it's most important contest of the enitre season. Playing on the short week at home also benefits the Raiders situationally tonight. 

The pick: LA has nothing to play for here and I expect it to throw in the white towel early (note that it's just 1-6 ATS in its last seven overall.) The public money is all over Las Vegas and this time, I think they're right. Lay the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Las Vegas Raiders.

The set-up: The Saints have become the first team to qualify for the Playoffs this year afrer their 21-16 win over Atlanta last weekend and I think a predictable letdown is finally in order here. Drew Brees has been sidelined with injury the last two weeks, but Taysom Hill has filled in pretty well in his place. New Orleans is averaging 28.9 PPG and it's allowing just 20.1, but all signs point to this team finally taking the foot off the gas in my opinion, especially with a big game at home against the Chiefs next weekend, one which would likely see Brees return to action. 

The pick: Philadelphia is in must win mode though at 3-8-1, as another loss would see it drop out of playoff contention. The Giants lead the weak NFC East, but Philadelphia still has a mathematical shot at winning the division, it just needs to win some games. And one game at a time. Jalen Hurts is under center now for the Eagles and he can't be any worse than Carson Wentz. I think the change will electrify this still talented Eagles offense. Philly's offense needs a jumpstart, as the defense has allowed 25.6 PPG. Look for the more motivated home side to at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Philadelphia Eagles.

The set-up: Clearly this is a big game for both teams. The Cards are 6-6 and they'd be out of the playoff picture if the playoffs began today, while at 5-7 the Giants would be in. New York has won four straight somehow, but I think a lapse is finally in order here vs. this now desperate Cardinals team which MUST WIN today to keep their playoff hopes alive. I use motivation alot as a way to handicap games and in my opinion, this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the home side, while Arizona enters in a "must win" situation. 

The pick: Note further that the Giants are still just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 at home, while the Cardinals are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games after a three games are longer SU losing streak. Arizona still has one of the best offenses in the league and I have a hard time seeing New York keeping pace. I'm laying the points.

This is a 9* PLAY-BOOK on the Cardinals.

The set-up: No upsets here, as I like the App State Mountaineers to lay the hammer down from start to finish. Neither team will be in the Championship game, but it's still an important contest to determine the second-place finisher in the division. App State lost 24-21 to Louisiana last time out. In that contest senior QB Zac Thomas had the absolute worst game of his career, going 10 of 21 for 92 yards and two interceptions. Suffice it to say, I don't expect that lightning bolt of futility to strike twice. Georgia Southern enters off a 20-3 win over FAU, using their backup QB in Justin Tomlin, who was 3 of 12 for 70 yards, while also rushing for an additional 78. Keep your eyes on Camerun Peoples for App State, as he has 738 rushing yards and seven TD's so far this season.

The pick: Georgia Southern is stout against the run, but with its attention on Peoples, I'm predicting a massive bounce-back game here for the highly motivated Thomas. The QB issues are Georgia Southern aren't trivial. Getting by FAU is one thing, but trying to keep up with this pissed off Mountaineers side is quite another. I'm laying the points in this great situational spot.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on App State.

The set-up: I think this is the week. This is the week that the Jets finally get off the schneid, not only covering this game, but winning outright. It's a perfect situational play in my opinion. The Jets are not giving up and want desperately to get off the schneid. Although they lost badly to Miami last weekend, previous to that they lost two very close games, against two decent teams. Vegas really needs a win as well, but the Raiders are dealing with injuries and issues of their own and are still reeling from a humbling 43-6 loss at Atlanta last weekend. 

The pick: Yes, the Jets are a bad team. New York has had to deal with plenty of COVID and injury issues this year, but it comes in likely healthier now that it's been all season. I look for the Jets to lay everything on the line today as they finally get into the winners circle!

This is a 9* DESTRUCTION on the JETS on the MONEY-LINE.

The set-up: These teams are awfully similar on the offensive side of the ball, but Cleveland has the slight advantage defensively. Cleveland comes to town off a 27-25 win at Jacksonville, while Tennessee looks poised for a letdown after its 45-26 road win at Indianpolis. Cleveland's defense gets a huge boost for this game as well, with the expected return of star Myles Garrett. 

The pick: Tennessee played with revenge last weekend and after that emotional victory, I think a minor setback is immiment at home. Neither team has looked perfect this year, as each has suffered with consistency at times. Cleveland's issues this year came mostly though when leading receiver OBJ was injured and it took a couple of weeks for the offense to adjust. That adjustment period is now over though and this Cleveland team is one which will fight until the final moments. In a contest which I see being decided late, I'm grabbing the points!

This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Cleveland Browns.

The set-up: Tom Herman is coaching for his job here for Texas. The Longhorns' offense revolves around Sam Ehlinger, who will look to move to a perfect 4-0 against K-State ofr his career. The Texas defense has taken a hit, but fortunately that unit faces the poor offense of the Wildcats, which have averaged just 362.2 yards per game of offense, with backup Will Howard now directing the show after Skylar Thompson went down with injury. 

The pick: To make matters worst for K-State, its defense has been even worse than its offense, allowing 426.6 yards per game and almost 270 of those yards through the air. And that's the difference-maker here for me entirely, as I expect Ehlinger to have himself a day here. Texas still has a chance to finish 7-3 (with a game at home against the lowly Jayhawks to finish it off.) I expect Ehlinger to take over this game on Saturday afternoon - lay the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Texas.

The set-up: Unfortunately, I played this game before all of the issues that the Ravens have gone through over the last week and I have the opening line of 3.5. I'm locked into this play and while I obviously don't love it as much as I did before all of this happened, I still do think that the Ravens have a legitimate shot at upsetting the Steelers outright. Baltimore plays with revenge after a 28-24 loss at home on November 1st. The Ravens actually outgained the Steelers 457 to 221 in that one and had 25 first downs compared to just 19. However, Pittsburgh won the turnover battle 4 to 1 and that was the difference in the end. The Ravens and Steelers are very evenly matched with their numbers through all three phases. 

The pick: The Ravens have both of their star RB's available now as well to play. Whoever is under center for Baltimore today, I think that the Ravens will "step up" here and "man up" and at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Grab the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Ravens.

The set-up: I think this is a bad spot for the Dolphins, who got upset badly by the Broncos on the road last weekend. Tua Tagovailoa looked poor and I think he'll struggle here again vs. this hungry home side that's still determined to get off the schneid with a win. The Miami offense moved better with Fitzpatrick and the defense looked slow last week.

The picks: The Jets have plenty of issues on both sides of the ball, but they're getting a lot healthier. This is a great opportunity for Sam Darnold has weapons and his defense is improving as well. With a chance to deal a big blow to Miami's playoff hopes, I do indeed believe the outright win is possible for the home side. However, why not grab up all these points?!

This is a 9* UNDERDOG BEST OF THE BEST on the Jets.

The set-up: Obviously TCU is the much better team. But it's not that much better. TCU is 3-4 and Kansas is 0-7. But with a game at Oklahoma State to end the season, I think the Horned Frogs take the foot off the gas in the second half. Kansas had its last game postponed, previous to that it lost 62-9 to Oklahoma. TCU had its two game win streak snapped in a 24-6 loss to WVU and I think it comes out flat-footed here vs. the lowly Jayhawks. Situationally speaking, this one sets up great for the home side in my opinion. TCU averages 24 PPG and it allows 26.7. Kansas has averaged 15.1 and allowed 48.4. 

The picks: I'm not going to try and tell you that the Jayhawks are going to win this game outright, as that's not going to be the case. I simply feel this is a really bad spot for TCU after last week's loss and with a bigger game next week vs. the Cowboys. This is the Jayhawks best shot at a win this year and I believe they play with pride and easily keep this one close with the large spread. Grab the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Kansas.

The set-up: Northwestern is 5-0, while MSU is just 1-4. Clearly Northwestern is the better team, but I expect complacency to finally settle in here. Michigan State has had an extra week off to prepare as well for this one, so I expect the Spartans to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. The Wildcats are only allowing 12.6 PPG, but note that they're only scoring 25.8. Peyton Ramsey has been decent with eight TD's and our INT's, but I think the Wildcats take the foot off the gas in the second half. 

The picks: Rocky Lombard has seven TD passes and six INTs. MSU has allowed 33.8 PPG over the last four games, but I think the extra time off to prepare will help them here. They also benefit facing this non-explosive Wildcats attack. With a game at Minnesota up next, I think Northwestern does indeed get caught looking ahead. Look for Lombardi to have a bounce back game here and to keep this one close. Grab the points.

This is an 8* PLAY-BOOK on Michigan State.

The set-up: No outright, but closer than expected! Ball State enters on top form, having won two straight. The Cardinals offense is balanced, averaging almost 480 yards of offense per game and 33.3 points. Ball State is allowing 437 yards of offense, but with Toledo QB Eli Peters injured (possibly out), the door is open for Ball State RB Caleb Huntley and company.

The picks: Carter Bradley could get the call here if Peter's leg injury keeps him out. Toledo has looked good on both sides of the ball, but note that the Rockets are still a poor 1-5 ATS their last six following an ATS victory, while the Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last four when playing the role of underdog. I think this is a game that the visitors can win outright, but let's grab the points.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Ball State.

The set-up: Here is another great "situational" play. I think CMU is the better team in this matchup, but after falling 52-44 to rival Western Michigan in its last outing, I look for the visiting side to come out flat vs. the lowly Eagles. EMU is winless and it's hungry to get off the schneid (note that it's lost two of its games by seven points or less.) These two QB's are a "wash" as well, as CMU's Daniel Richardson and EMU's Preston Hutchinson have similar numbers. 

The pick: Note as well that CMU is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten after allowing 50 or more points in a SU loss in its last outing. The conditions are right for an outright upset here, but let's grab the points!

This is an 8* play on EMU.

The set-up:

The picks:

This is an 8* play on UNC

The set-up:

The picks:

This is an 8* play on USF.

The set-up: Iowa is 3-2. It started 0-2 and has won three in a row. Nebraska is 1-3 and it comes in under the radar here. Nebraska comes in off a poor showing at home against Illinois, so there is some overreaction here about how bad the Huskers really are in my opinion. Iowa comes in off a big win over Penn State on the road. Iowa's defense has been the difference maker though, as QB Spencer Petras has four INT's and three TD's this year. 

The picks: Nebraska has allowed 34.3 PPG in the early going, which obviously is poor. The Huskers catch a bit of a break facing this Iowa offense which averages 180 YPG on the ground. The Huskers' offense has put points on the board, averaging 21.3 PPG. Nebraska has two QB's in Adrian Martinez and Luke McCaffrey and I think they'll keep their team competitive late. No outright, but look for Iowa to take the foot off the gas in the second half, allowing the hungry visiting side to comfortably sneak in through the back door.

This is a 9* DESTRUCTION on Nebraska. 

The set-up: Iowa State is 6-1 in Big 12 play for the first time ever and suffice it to say, I expect a bit of a letdown here in this difficult road venue. Brock Purdy had 236 yards and two TD's in his team's blowout win over K-State last time out. Texas though is on a three-game win skein as well. Texas' defense is underrated, it looked good in the 17-13 win over WVU last time out. 

The picks: Texas last game was postponed due to COVID, so the Longhorns come in with an extra week of rest to focus and prepare. I'll give a big nod to Sam Ehlinger over his counterpart Purdy as well, as Ehlinger has been a difference-maker so far for his team. I'm laying the short points in this great situational play, but expecting a big rout.

This is a 10* BEATDOWN on Texas.

The set-up: Both teams need victories. Tampa has struggled against the better defenses so far this season and the Rams come to town with one of the best units on that side of the ball. LA is 6-3 and Tampa is 7-3. The Rams enter with a ton of momentum though, as after their bye-week they won a crucial 23-16 contest over division rival Seattle at home last Sunday. Jared Goff had over 300 yards passing for a second straight game. The defense though was tremendous, posting six sacks and two INT's. Tampa comes in off a 46-23 win over Carolina, as Tom Brady had 341 passing yards and three TD's. As mentioned above though, Brady has struggled against strong pass rushing teams, so I expect the veteran to take a step back here today. 

The picks: Schedule wise this favors the Rams, as the Bucs have yet to have their bye-week and coach Bruce Arians admits his team is tired. They're coming off a big win over a division rival on the road, and then Tampa has to deal with the Chiefs at home next weekend. LA hasn't been on the road since November 1st. While the outright win is possible in my opinion, I'm grabbing the points.

This is a 10* MONEY-BOMB on the LA Rams.

The set-up: Las Vegas is dealing with some COVID 19 issues right now with some of its defensive players. The Chiefs are 8-1 and their only loss was to the Raiders at home, so they come out of their bye week focussed and ready to lay a beat down on the national stage. KC's offense is as dangerous as ever, but its defense has made big strides this year, as it allows only 6.6 yards per attempt passing, which ranks thrid in the league. 

The picks: The Raiders earned the upset victory in KC, but they're still just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 following a SU win, while the Chiefs are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 when playing the role of favorites. KC is out for revenge and Andy Reid has had an extra week off to design and prepare. I expect a blowout from start to finish. 

This is a 10* SUNDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE YEAR on the Chiefs.

The set-up: All good things have to come to an end at some point. Miami has played exceptionally well over the last five weeks, but I think it'll struggle in this difficult non-conference road venue. The Fish enter off a 29-21 win over the Chargers, while the Broncos come in off a 37-12 loss to the Raiders. Tua Tagovailoa is in unchartered territory at this point and I think he's going to preditably struggle in the thin air of Denver. 

The picks: The Broncos have lost two straight on the road, but they'll be trying to win their second straight at home. Drew Lock and Melvin Gordon III give the home side the potential to earn an outright victory, but in the end I'll recommend to grab the points. Miami has hit a dangerous part of its schedule, with a "cream puff" at division rival Jets up next and I think it'll get caught complacent and looking ahead. Expect Denver to shock Miami and earn a hard-fought win and cover!

This is an 8* COACH'S CORNER on the Denver Broncos.

The set-up: Cincinnati has been great, but it has a big target on its back after all of the attention its gotten and I believe it finally stumbles this weekend in this difficult road venue. The Bearcats most recently thumped ECU 55-17 last Friday. The Knights won't at all be intimidated though obviously, they most recently hammered Temple 38-13 last weekend. This also sets up as a revenge game for the home side, which fell 27-24 in Cincinnati last season. These teams are evenly matched for the most part. Desmond Ridder and Dillon Gabriel are a "wash" at the QB position. Each team is also sharp defensively. I don't think the Bearcats will go undefeated though this year and note that they're just 2-8 ATS in their last ten after five or more SU victories in a row.

The picks: UCF on the other hand is 23-2 straight-up in its last 25 at home. This one has the feel of whichever of these two hungry teams has its hands on the ball last is going to win and in a scenario like that, I'm going to always grab as many points as I can. So that's what I'm doing here!

This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on UCF.

The set-up: I've grabbed the points, but I do expect Penn State to finally get into the win column here as well with a straight-up victory. With a spread like this, the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe that these teams are evenly matched. I do think that's the case also, but for me this comes down to motivation levels. Iowa is 2-2 and the Nittany Lions are 0-4. Iowa has once again been tough defensively, allowing just 14.8 PPG. QB Spencer Petras is a game manager, as RB Tyler Goodson is the focal point.

The picks: The Nittany Lions went 10-2 last year and note that they've never started a season 0-5 ever in their entire 100-year history of playing. Penn State lost 30-23 to Nebraska last time out, but it looked a lot better in the second half. Will Levis and Sean Clifford are going to keep this Hawkeyes defense on its heels today. Yes, Penn State has fallen off considerably from last year's team, but so too has Iowa. The Hawkeyes have been consistently inconsistent this year and after last week's win, I expect that trend to continue here vs. a Nittany Lions team which will be risking life and limb to try and finally get into the win column. As stated off the top, the outright is possible, but let's grab the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State.

The set-up: Obviously I'm not predicting an outright upset here. I simply believe that Florida will go up big early, and then take the foot off the gas in the second half as it prepares for Kentucky, Tennessee and LSU to finish off the season. 

The picks: Vanderbilt is winless, but it's been competitive in almost every game it's been in, most recently falling 38-35 at Kentucky, scoring 14 points in the fourth quarter. Kyle Trask could even be pulled in the second half, leaving the door open for Ken Seals and company to earn a solid backdoor cover. Just like UMass on Friday night, look for this spread to be too much for the favorite to cover here. 

This is an 8* ATS BLOWOUT on Vanderbilt.

The set-up: Coastal Carolina has a target on its back and I think that App State will give it everything it can handle on Saturday afternoon. The Mountaineers lost their opener, but they enter on top form after five-straight victories. Overall the Mountaineers allow only 16.9 PPG. Coastal Carolina has exceeded expectations for sure this year, as it's ranked and it's also beaten a ranked team. It allows only 16.3 PPG. App State won this game 56-37 last year, and while I'm not predicting an upset of that size this season, I do expect the hungry visiting side to deliver the goods.

The picks: The Mountaineers third ranked rushing offense will prove to be the difference maker here, as I expect it to keep Grayson McCall and the CC offense off the field of play more than usual. Look for App State's run game and defense to be the difference this afternoon, and grab as many points as you can.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Appalachian State.

The set-up: Minnesota is coming off a 33-7 loss to Iowa and it's now only 1-3, while Purdue enters off a 27-20 loss to Northwestern, falling to 2-1. If recent history is any precedence, then the Gophers have to be loving their chances as they've taken the last two in this series, including a 38-31 decision last season. Purdue only managed 262 yards of offense in its last outing. Overall the Boilermakers averages 25 PPG and they allow 23.7. Aidan O'Connell has 916 yards passing, seven touchdowns and only two interceptions. 

The picks: Tanner Morgan had two costly INT's in the Gophers loss last weekend. So far in the early going Minnesota is averaging 29 PPG, but it's conceding 35.8. Morgan has issues with his offensive line, but Purdue's defense isn't adept at rushing the passer, so this is a perfect opponent to get bounce back against. I'll point out as well that the Gophers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after a 20 points or larger SU/ATS loss in their previous outing. This one has the feel of whichever teams has its hands on the ball last is going to win and in a scenario like that, I'm going to grab the points.

This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Minnesota.

The set-up: The Rockets won this game 37-34 in OT last year, but I think they'll earn a much easier victory on Wednesday night. Toledo has averaged 38 PPG in the early going, but two late TD passes by WMU was too much to overcome in a close setback last weekend. QB Eli Peter was 30 of 46 and while the defense struggled, that unit catches a break this week facing the Eagles. 

The picks: EMU most recently lost 38-31 to Ball State. In the setback the Eagles posted 377 total yards of offense, with Preston Hutchinson accounting for 250 of those through the air. The Eagles though are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven following an ATS victory, while the Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record. I'm laying the points and expecting a decisive win and cover!

This is a 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on Toledo.

The set-up: These teams are only playing six games in the MAC this year, but I still think this sets up as a bit of a "look ahead" game for Buffalo. The Bulls are 2-0 and the Bowling Green Falcons are 0-2. But with a game at 2-0 Kent State up next, I believe the Bulls will be caught taking the foot off the gas in the second half. 

The pick: Buffalo likes to run the ball and the Falcons are poor at stopping the run. This one comes down to whether or not Bowling Green can get some points in garbage time and I believe it can, as even Northern Illinois put some points on the board in garbage time vs. the Buffs last time out. For all the reasons listed above, grab as many points as you can and expect a solid back door cover. 

This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Bowling Green.

The set-up: Chicago comes in off a tough 24-17 loss at Tennessee. The Bears are now desperate as they look to break a three-game slide. The Vikes on the other hand look poised for letdown in my opinion after two-straight wins, most recently a 34-20 victory over the Lions. Dalvin Cook has sure looked great for Minnesota of late, so far he has 858 rushing yards and 13 TD's. Despite their recent "blip of success" though, note that the Vikings average 27.1 PPG, while conceding 29.3. 

The picks: Nick Foles had a big day in the Tennessee loss, going 36 of 52 335 yards and two touchdowns. The Bears have dominated this series at home, going 16-3 the last 19 in this series and 5-1 ATS the last six. Clearly I believe the outright is going to happen, but in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can.

This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on the Chicago Bears.

The set-up: UNLV will try to get off the schneid after starting the season 0-3. Most recently the Rebels fell 40-27 to Fresno State this past weekend. QB Max Gilliam has four touchdowns through three games. SJSU on the other hand is 3-0 after an upset 28-17 win over SDSU on Saturday. The Spartans were double-digit dogs, but QB Nick Starkel and company somehow managed the upset. Starkel left the SDSU game with a hand injury though and his status is up in the air here. 

The picks: The Spartans have only allowed 14.7 PPG in the early going, but winning leads to complacency. With a game vs. Fresno State up next as well, this also sets up as a "look ahead" spot for the home side. SJSU backup QB Nick Nash is capable, but the Runnin Rebels are desperate here. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

This is an 8* BAIL-OUT BLOWOUT on UNLV.

The set-up:

The picks:

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on New Mexico.

The set-up: Fresno is 2-1 and Utah State is 0-3. Fresno lost 34-19 to Hawaii to open the year, but the Bulldogs have rebounded to beat two bad teams in UNLV and Colorado State. Utah State's competition has been much greater, having lost to Boise State, SDSU and Nevada. After the 34-9 loss to Nevada, head coach Gary Anderson was fired, with assistant head-coach Frank Maile now stepping in as interim. I think the Aggies will respond on the field of play to this coaching change. 

The picks: Utah State is also 11-4 ATS in its last 15 at home, while Fresno State is is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after back-to-back SU/ATS victories. No outright, but look for the coaching change to help motivate the home side here as they at they very least, take this one rigth down to the wire. I'm grabbing the points.

This is a 10* MW GAME OF THE YEAR on Utah State.

The set-up: Does ECU have a shot at winning this game outright? Of course not. There's zero chance of that. Cincinnati has a favorable schedule and it appears to be on a mission. However, I think this is a great situational play, as I do think the Pirates will play hard on this nationally televised game, while I also fully expect the Bearcats to take the foot off the gas in the second half as they get ready for a much tougher game at UCF next weekend. Situationally, this one sets up great for the Pirates. 

The picks: Cincinnati has already blown out plenty of opponents this season and there's just zero reason for it do so again. We've reached the point of the season where it has to start looking ahead and I fully expect that to happen here. I base my picks on many things. Situations, trends, trying to go against public money/perception at times. For this one though, it's all about the overall situation that each team finds itself in coming into this one (it's also important to note that ECU is in fact 5-2 ATS in its last seven on the road as well.) Grab the points.

This is a 10* U OF THE U on ECU.

The set-up: The Colts come in off a 24-10 home loss to the Ravens, but I think they'll find a way to get past the "on again, off again" Titans on Thursday night. Tennessee ended a two-game skid with a tougher than expected 24-17 home win over the Bears last weekend. These teams played twice last year of course and the road team won each tame. I like Philip Rivers to bounce back here vs. this suspect Titans secondary. Overall Indy is averaging 26 points per game and allowing 20. 

The picks: Tennessee is averaging 29 PPG and it's conceding 25.1. The Titans are a poor 27th against the pass as well, allowing 275 yards per game. The Colts are third against the run, which is Tennessee's strength. I'm banking on Rivers being the difference maker here vs. this terrible Titans defense. That said, grab the points!

This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Indianapolis Colts.

The set-up: EMU opened with a 27-23 loss to Kent State, while Ball State lost 38-31 to Miami Ohio. Preston Hutchinson was 21 of 35 for the Eagles in his opener, throwing for 241 yards, two TD's and two INT's. EMU's weak point last year was its defense and I think the unit will predictably struggle on the road here in this difficult venue. 

The picks: Ball State had an interesting season last year, as it won only five games, but it was just eight points away from an eight win season. The Ball State defense is also poor, but the offense has been great, led by senior QB Drew Pitt, who had 309 passing yards, one TD and one INT in the opener. Ball State's balanced offense will be the difference maker in the end though, as Caleb Huntley had 132 rushing yards and two TD's in last week's setback on the ground. Pitt and the Cardinals have a huge experience edge. They're also playing at home. I like Ball State to put the foot on the gas and keep it there until the final whistle. Lay the points.

This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Ball State.

The set-up: I got down early and have an unfavorable line, but regardless, I like the Jets to at the very least, keep this one close enough to sneak in through the backdoor down the stretch. This is a big game for the Jets, who have an opportunity to get their first win of the year against the worst team they've faced all year, while also putting the final nail in the coffin for the Patriots playoff hopes. This is a monster "revenge" game as well for the Jets, who have lost eight straight in this series and nine of ten. Both teams have been terrible offensively and "OK" defensively. 

The picks: Darnold and the Jets have had to deal with several injuries, but I still think he's a better QB than Newton. Darnold won AFC Player of the week twice last season. Note as well that the Jets are 5-2 ATS in their last seven when playing at home to the Patriots. The outright is possible, but let's grab the points.

This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on the New York Jets.

The set-up: The Titans come in off a 31-20 setback to the Bengals last weekend, while the Bears lost 26-23 in OT to the Saints. The Bears offense is going to struggle to keep pace here in my opinion. So far Chicago has gotten great defensive play to keep it in games, but Tennessee averages 29.7 PPG and it only concedes 23.

The picks: Chicago is also only 3-7 ATS in its last ten at home, while the Titans are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after back-to-back SU losses. I love Tennessee here, as I expect Derrick Henry to set the ton early. Lay the points, expect a rout!

This is a 9* COACH'S CORNER on the Titans.

The set-up: WKU has lost three of its last four, but off a blowout loss to BYU, I like the Hilltoppers to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. FAU has had three games postponed due to Covid. It's been good in the early going, allowing only 13.3 PPG, but I think it comes out a bit flat to start here, and that's going to be the advantage we grab hold of and ride to a solid cover. Despite losing 41-10 to BYU, WKU had 166 rushing yards in the setback. QB Tyrell Pigrom had been great as well, as he has eight touchdowns and no interceptions. 

The picks: FAU enters off a 24-3 win over UTSA. Nick Tronti had 382 passing yards, three TD's and one INT on the year. Note though that FAU is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven after holding a team to three points or less in a victory in its previous outing. I like the "hungrier" team to at least cover with the generous spread.

This is a 9* UNDERDOG BEST OF THE BEST on WKU.

The set-up: Minnesota is 0-2. Illinois is 0-2. Two teams enter, only one will leave with a victory. And that team will be the Gophers (and in resounding fashion!) Last year the Gophers annihilated the Illini 40-17 in this game and I expect a similar beatdown here. Last year Minnesota only lost two games total. Last time out Minnesota lost in OT to Maryland off a failed PAT. THe Gophers lost a lot of talent, but I like Tanner Morgan to help his team to bounce back here finally and get off the schneid. 

The picks: And here's the perfect team to do it against, as Illinois hasn't won a game since Nov. 23rd of last year. Overall the Illini allow 309 passing yards per game, which is second worst in the nation. QB Coran Taylor is a lone stand out on a poor team and I look for Minnesota to finally get untracked here (note as well that Illinois is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after allowing more than 280 passing yards in its previous game.) I'm laying the points and expecting a blowout.

This is an 8* BLOWOUT on Minnesota.

The set-up: Cincinnati is 5-0 and Houston is 2-2. Clearly the Bearcats are the better team and I'm not going to try and convince you otherwise. Desmond Ridder leads an exciting and dynamic Bearcats offense and Cincinnati has also been great defensively. The Bearcats have a favorable remaining schedule as well, so a Championship berth is not out of the question if they can run the table. It's a shortened season, so it's definitely possible as well. 

The picks: Houston comes in under the radar though in my opinion (note that it's 4-1 ATS/SU in its last five on the road.) Houston fell apart in a loss to UCF last weekend. They also have a loss to BYU (43-26). They have big wins over Tulane (49-31) and Navy (37-21). I think the Bearcats take the foot off the gas in the second half. Expect a comfortable cover.

This is a 9* COACH'S CORNER on Houston.

The set-up: Syrause is a bad team, but I like it to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Boston College almost beat Clemson last week and because of that "near miss," I think the Eagles come out a bit flat here (of course, Trevor Lawrence wasn't playing in that one.) Overall BC averages 27.6 points per game, while allowing 26.3. Syracuse comes in off a 38-14 home loss to Wake Forest. The Orange actually played decently against Clemson as well, and Syracuse was the first to intercept Lawrence in his Collegiate career. Overall the Orange only average 19 PPG, while conceding 13.3. 

The picks: Yes, BC is the better team here. But the situation favors the hungry underdog home side. With a game at home against Notre Dame in another nationally televised contest, I expect BC to take the foot off the gas as well in the second half if it does in fact have a lead. I'll grab the points and expect a solid back door cover.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Syracuse.

The set-up: San Jose State is 2-0 and I think it'll give the Aztecs a run for their money on Friday night. Most recently the Spartans topped New Mexico 38-21 last Saturday, covering the 13.5 point spread. SDSU is also 2-0 after its 38-7 win over Utah State. SDSU won this matchup 27-17 last year and it has in fact won seven straight in this series. Can anyone say "revenge factor?!" Nick Starkel had three TD passes for SJSU last weekend. He also ran two in. SJSU averages 27.5 PPG and it concedes 13.5. 

The picks: SDSU got two rushing TD's from Greg Bell last time out. The Aztecs actually outgained the hapless Aggies 570-215. Overall SDSU averages 36 points and it allows just 6.3. Both teams have faced lesser competition, but that changes this weekend. SJSU has made significant strides on both sides of the ball and I think it's being severely underestimated here by the oddsmakers. I like Starkel to keep this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points.

This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on San Jose State.

The set-up: Wyoming is 1-1 after defeating Hawaii 31-7 last Thursday. Colorado State opened is season with a 38-17 loss to Fresno State. The silver-lining for the Rams was that they gained 372 yards on offense (unfortunately allowing 442 yards of their own.) Wyoming has to start the season with its backup QB in Levi Williams, who looked decent vs. a weak Warriors team last week. But it's still significant to note that the Cowboys are down signifcant pieces, including to starting quarterback Sean Chambers is out indefinitely with a fractured fibula. Others include RB Titus Swen and offensive lineman Alonzo Velazquez, while defensive end Garrett Crall is questionable.

The picks: Colorado State will settle down here at home. The defense has a big opportunity to bounce back here as well. The offense though looked great in the dual QB system with Todd Centeio and Patrick O'Brien. This is definitely one of those cases where we should not "overreact" after the Week 1 results. Look for the Rams depth to be the difference here and I also expect a much better defensive effort. Outright is possible, but let's grab the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Colorado State.

The set-up: Most of Buffalo's defense from last year returns. The unit would go on to give up less than three TD's in five of its last six games last year. NIU has QB Ross Bowers under center, but the Huskies are dealing with a huge turnover of players on both sides of the ball this season. Bower was sacked 18 times last year and he had more INT's than TD's. Buffalo is also 4-1 ATS the last five in this series. Buffalo also welcomes back its biggest offensive weapon in RB Jaret Patterson, who averaged 5.8 YPC last year. Buffalo QB Kyle Vantrease is also back, and he had 1,200 yards passing, eight touchdowns and only two interceptions. 

The picks: NIU is also only 3-8 ATS in its last 11 as an underdog, while Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a favorite. Buffalo had some issues with covid a few weeks ago, but I still think it'll easily pull away down the stretch vs. this Huskies team that is basically starting from scratch. I'm laying the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Buffalo.

The set-up: Tampa is probably the best team in the NFC. That said, it did lose to New Orleans in Week 1 and it faces the Saints next week at home, followed by another divisional contest at Carolina. This game vs. the Giants is important, but not nearly as much as the two contests on deck. New York on the other hand has had to deal with several on and off-field issues, but it's lost its last three games by three points or less and four of six by eight points or less. Clearly the Bucs are the better team, but I think they'll slow down in the second half if they have a lead, while I expect New York to fight tooth and nail until the final whistle. 

The pick: Tampa is also just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after scoring 40 or more points in a 20 points or larger victory in its last outing. Expect the hungry Giants to comfortably sneak in through the back door with the large spread they've been afforded.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the New York Giants.

The set-up: The Colts are off their bye week and they catch a Lions teach which has won two straight. The Colts are a huge step up on the defensive side for Detroit here though and I think it'll struggle with offensive consistency this week. Philip Rivers looked great two weeks ago, coming from behind to knock off the Bengals on the road, throwing for 380 yards and three touchdowns. The Lions secondary has been suspect as well, so I love a rested Rivers to have a big game on the road here. 

The pick: Detroit is still just 5-12 ATS in its last 17 overall as well, while Indianpolis is 6-2 ATS in its last eight following a SU win and coming out of its bye-week. I'm laying the points, I'm expecting a blowout.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Indianapolis Colts.

The set-up: I like to wait to write my analysis until as close to game time as possible, as that allows all last information to come in. Today though I'm having major internet problems, so will not be able to give my full and proper analysis. I apologize for that, but I'm unable to access most of the information that I normally have access too.

The pick: Note that Mississippi State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven following a double-digit home loss, while Alabama is 2-8 ATS in its last ten following an ATS win. Alabama gets caught looking ahead to its bye week here, so grab the points!

This is an 8* PLAY-BOOK on Mississippi State.

The set-up:

The pick:

This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas.

The set-up: I like to wait to write my analysis until as close to game time as possible, as that allows all last information to come in. Today though I'm having major internet problems, so will not be able to give my full and proper analysis. I apologize for that, but I'm unable to access most of the information that I normally have access too. 

The pick: Iowa State is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten as a 25 points or higher favorite on the road and coming off a SU/ATS loss. I'm grabbing the points!

This is an 8* LIVE DOG DESTRUCTION on Kansas. 

The set-up: Atlanta is out of the playoff picture, but it's still trying to win games. These teams played in Week 5 and the Panthers scored the 23-16 victory, so this is also a revenge game as well. Atlanta comes in off a 23-22 loss to Detroit last time out, a heartbreaker which I think it'll boune back from here. Overall Atlanta is averaging 26.3 PPG and it's allowing 29.6. 

The pick: Carolina is averaging 23.1 points per game and it's allowing 24. The Panthers have lost two in a row now and I think their offense will have a hard time keeping up with Atlanta and Julio Jones, who was not playing in the Week 5 contest. Carolina is also just 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven at home, while the Falcons are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven as a road underdog. Atlanta has played better than its 1-6 record and I expect it to avenge the earlier Week 5 loss today. That said, grab the points!

This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on the Atlanta Falcons.

The set-up: Both teams have done well this year. The Hawks are 5-0 and the Cardinals are 4-2. If you look at each team's schedule though, neither team has played any tough games yet. Seattle's wins have come over team's with a combined 9-21 record. Arizona has played teams with a combined 11-21 record. For the first time this season these teams are truly going to be tested here. Seattle's defense has been poor for sure this season and it's "lucky" that it escaped with a 27-26 win at home over the Vikes two weeks ago. 

The pick: Arizona comes in off its most complete performance of the year in a 38-10 win over the Cowboys last weekend. I think this sets up perfectly for the Cards here. Divisional contests are always the most important and they almost always mean more to the home side. I'm grabbing the points, but won't be shocked by an outright upset either.

This is a 9* ATS BLOWOUT on the Arizona Cardinals.

The set-up: Both teams have been poor. The Chargers come in off their bye-week and I expect them to be a step behind the Jaguars today. Gardner Minshew and company have nothing to lose here and this one has all the makings of a much more competitive affair than what this spread would suggest. 

The pick: I give the nod to Minshew over the Chargers' Justin Herbert as well. Note as well that the LA is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine following its bye week and after three or more SU losses. Expect the Jaguars to do more than enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door with the large spread they've been afforded here. 

This is an 8* play on the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The set-up: I think the Texans have a legitimate shot at winning this game outright. The Packers looked pretty ordinary in their beatdown loss in Tampa last weekend. Clearly Aaron Rodgers will have a better game here, however Houston won't be lacking for motivation here after its first win of the year over Jacksonville last time out. The Packers strength of schedule definitely has to be called into question here. While Rodgers is off his worst start of his career, the Texans' DeShaun Watson is off his best start of the season. These teams are moving in different directions. 

The pick: Houston has played the much tougher schedule as well to this point and it faces a difficult road schedule up next. Their season is on the line, I like the Texans to at the very least, sneak in through the back door down the stretch.

This is an 8* play on the Houston Texans.

The set-up: The Bills come in off a 26-17 loss to Kansas City, a Chiefs team which was coming off its second loss of the year in a poor effort at home to the Raiders. Now they face a Jets team desperate to get off the schneid at home and which welcomes back starting QB Sam Darnold. 

The pick: Buffalo has a game at home vs. division rival New England next week, followed by a visit from league-leading Seattle. Can anyone say "look-ahead spot?!" The numbers on paper favor Buffalo, but the overall situation definitely favors the hungry Jets. New York isn't going to go 0-16 SU/ATS this season and this is its best chance yet for a straight-up victory. That said, let's grab the points!

This is an 8* play on the New York Jets.

The set-up: UNLV finished last in the Mountain West last year, going 4-8 overall and 2-6 in league play. The Rebels only won four games, but two of those wins came right at the end of the year. SDSU was second in the Mountainwest last year, going 10-3 and 5-3. UNLV QB Kenyon Oblad will have his hands full in this difficult venue, but he does come in with much more experience and with his top three wide receivers from last year. 

The pick: The Aztecs have a new QB in Carson Baker this season, last year he made just 24 passes. SDSU also has a new starting RB in Chance Bell. SDSU was No. 2 in the nation defensively last year, but the unit also had some turnover this year. With a game at Utah State on Halloween Night up next, I think the home side takes the foot off the gas in the second half, leaving the back door wide open for Oblad and company. Grab as many points as you can.

This is a 10* MOUNTAIN-WEST GAME OF THE YEAR on UNLV.

The set-up: I think Marshall gets caught looking past lowly FAU today. Marshall is ranked No. 22 in the country with a 4-0 record. Last time out it beat Louisiana Tech 35-17. The Thundering Herd have also had two other games postponed due to Covid 19 issues. FAU has only played one game so far this year, a 21-17 victory over Charlotte. The Owls have had to deal with sevreal Covid related issues as well. FAU is led by the dynamic play of dual-threat QB Nick Tronti. 

The pick: Marshall though is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight following a 15 points or greater victory in which it also covered the spread, while FAU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after playing with two or more weeks of rest. I like the well rested Owls to sneak in through the back door down the stretch, after Marshall takes the foot off the gas in the second half. Grab the points.

This is an 8* ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION on FAU.

The set-up: Michigan State defeated Rutgers 27-0 as a 22-point favorite last year, but MSU has a new coach and a new QB and it has plenty of new faces on both sides of the ball. The Spartans lost almost all of their offensive talent from last season's team which struggled with offensive consistency. 

The pick: Rutgers was dead last in the Big Ten last year, but it returns seven starters on offense and eight on defense. Quarterback Noah Vedral doesn't have a lot of experience, but the transfer is decent and is a true dual threat. I look for MSU to get caught looking past its opponent. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

This is an 8* play on Rutgers.

The set-up: CC has a target on its back as the only undefeated team in the Sun Belt. Georgia Southern won this game 30-27 last year. Georgia Southern comes in on top form as well after back-to-back wins, most recently routing UMass 41-0. Georgia Southern is ranked fourth in the country in rushing. JD King has 423 rushing yards so far. CC comes in off a 30-27 win over a ranked Louisiana team. Note though that CC's run defense gave up nearly 300 rushing yards in that one. 

The pick: Georgia Southern is 6-2 ATS in its last eight as a road underdog in the +5.5 to +7.5 range and after back-to-back victories. I think Georgia Southern's strong running game is the difference here. Grab the points.

This is an 8* play on Georgia Southern.

The set-up: UNC is looking to lay a beating on NC State after a poor performance in Tallahassee. The Wolfpack are now ranked 23rd after three straight wins, including a 31-20 win over Duke last time out. NC State is led by the dynamic polay of QB Devin Leary, but he's now out for the rest of the season after breaking his fibula late in last week's victory. 

The pick: Florida State had a 31-7 lead over UNC, before the Tar Heels finally fell 31-28. Mack Browns team has all the pieces to bounce back big at home though, led by Heisman Trophy candidate Sam Howell. The Tar Heels are 5-1 ATS their last six at home as well, while the Wolfpack are just 2-8 ATS in their last ten on the road.

This is an 8* play on UNC.

The set-up: Wisconsin plays with revenge here after falling 24-23 to Illinois as a 30-point favorite last season. The Badgers lost their next game after that setback as well to Ohio State last season, but overall the Badgers had another great year. Wisconsin is without the services of starting QB Jack Coan, meaning that Graham Mertz will have his shot at proving himself tonight on the national stage. Wisconsin also doesn't have Jonathan Taylor running the ball anymore, but Nakia Watson is expected to fill in seamlessly. 

The pick: Brandon Peters is back under center for Illinois this year, but most of the pieces he had around him last season have moved on. Peters only completed 55 percent of his passes last season. Illinois' best player is likely kicker James McCourt. Note though that the home side is 4-0 ATS the last four in this series, while Illinois is 0-5 ATS in its last five "Friday night" contests. Look for the Badgers' superior defense to be the difference maker for us down the stretch, as I expect the home side to keep the foot on the gas, even if it has a large lead in the second half. Lay the points.

This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on Wisconsin.

The set-up: Arkansas State is 1-1 after a 59-52 win as a 3.5 point favorite against Georgia State last weekend. The Red Wolves though allowed 583 total yards of offense. Arkansas State enters first among the ten teams in the Sun Belt by averaging 496 yards of offense per game, but it's also dead last on the defensive end, allowing 481.8 yards. 

The pick: So far the MOuntaineers are 2-1 this season. App State has been off since September 26th and I expect the Mountaineers to come out and run the Red Wolves off the field with their superior play on both ends of the field. So far App State is averaging 31.3 PPG and it's conceding only 19.3. The Mountaineers have plenty of returning talent from last year and I think the extra time off just adds fuel to the fire for the home side. Conversely, after their last loss, I expect the Red Wolves to come out flat-footed here. I'm laying the points and expecting a rout.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on App State.

The set-up: Yes, the Bills lost terribly on Tuesday night in Tennessee. Previous to that Buffalo had gone 4-0. The scheduling of that game though likely played havoc with the Bill chemistry and I expect a much better performance here at home on Monday night. The Chiefs looked pretty darn ordinary in their home loss last time out. Both teams sport similar numbers, both offensively and defensively, but I believe that this one sets up well from a situational stand point for the home side. KC is in Denver next weekend, while the Bills are at the Jets.

The pick: The numbers/stats are working in our favor as well, as note that Buffalo is 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference home games as a 4-points or greater underdog. I think this one comes down to whichever of these two hungry teams has its hands on the ball last. I'm grabbing the points.

This is a 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Buffalo Bills. 

The set-up: The 49ers have ben ravaged by injury early. Jimmy Garopolo only played a half in last week's 43-17 loss to the Dolphins, but he's expected to start this week. San Francisco though still has many holes on both sides of the ball. The Rams are 4-1 and they're playing exceptional defense right now, allowing only 18 points and 330 yards of total offense per game. If San Francisco has troubles moving the ball on the Fish, I can't see it having much luck in this divisional contest vs. this elite defense. The Rams have also gotten great play from Jared Goff, who has limited the turnovers in the early going. 

The pick: San Francisco is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven after allowing more than 250 passing yards in its previous game as well, while the Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a losing record. This one has lop-sided "blowout" written all over it. Lay the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the LA Rams.

The set-up: The Bengals are 1-3-1 after a 27-3 loss to Baltimore. Remember, the Browns lost 34-6 to Baltimore in Week 1, but since then Baker Mayfield and the Browns have averaged almost 40 PPG. I'm not saying that's what's going to happen here for Joe Burrow and company, I'm just making a point that the Ravens defense is pretty damn good. The Colts have looked great at times and poor in others. Last week they looked bad in a 32-23 road loss to the Cleveland Browns. Nine of those points that the Browns scored came off of Philip Rivers turnovers as well. I think Indianapolis is overrated to this point and I like the hungrier home side to keep this one a lot closer than what this spread would suggest. 

The pick: The Bengals are 7-2 ATS in their last nine off an ATS loss and as home dog of 7 points or more, while the Colts are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight after an ATS loss of ten or more point in which they were the favorite. Indy gets caught looking ahead to its bye week next weekend and leaves the back door open in the second half. Outright is possible, but grab the points in the end.

This is an 8* UPSET DESTROYER on the Bengals.

The set-up: This is a big game for both teams. The Browns looked good last week at home vs. the Colts to move to 4-1, but they struggled in Week 1 on the road vs. Baltimore and its elite defense. Now they hit the road for an important divisional contest vs. the red hot Steelers, who are among the league leaders on the defensive end. Both teams have done well offensively, but until Mayfield can win a big game on the road in a hostile environment, I am not convinced he actually can.

The pick: The Browns strength is their run game, but Nick Chubb is now out with injury. Cleveland's weakness is its defense, which doesn't bode well facing red hot Ben Roethlisberger. It's been reported that Mayfield has a minor injury today as well and will play through it. This one sets up beautifully for a home side blowout. Lay the points.

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL ATS BEATDOWN on the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The set-up: Kentucky has been playing well and I think it'll take this one down to the wire. The Wildcats enter off a 24-2 win over Mississippi State, including posting six interceptions. The Vols enter off a disheartening 44-21 loss to Georgia and I expect them to get caught flat-footed here as well. Quarterback Jarrett Guarantano turned the ball over three times. 

The pick: I think Wildcats' QB Terry Wilson is going to have a big day here. He had 463 yards passing with two touchdowns, along with 221 rushing yards and three more TD's on the ground. The Vols are also just 2-7 ATS in their last nine after a ten points or greater road loss in their previous outing. With Alabama coming to town next weekend, this also sets up as a "look ahead" spot for the home side. I'm grabbing the points and expecting a "nail biter!" 

This is an 8* ROUT on Kentucky.

The set-up: SMU enters out of its bye week. Tulane fell 49-31 to Houston last weekend. This is a revenge game for the Green Wave after falling 37-20 to the Mustangs in the final game of the regular season for each team last year. SMU QB Shane Buechele has gone 105 passes without throwing a pick for SMU. The Mustangs average 44 PPG and they allow just 23.3. But with a game at home against leading Cincinnati next weekend, there's no question that this sets up as a classic "look ahead" spot for Buechele and the Mustangs. 

The pick: The Green Wave offense stalled last weekend. The defense was sharp in forucing five turnovers. Michael Pratt was making his first start of his career and he has 141 passing yards and a touchdown. Tulane relies mostly on the run game on offense anyways though and so far it's averaging 37 PPG, while allowing 31. The Green Wave are also 6-1 ATS in their last seven following an ATS loss and 5-0 ATS as a home dog, while the Mustangs are just 1-5 ATS in their last six on the road. No outright, but down to the wire. Grab the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Tulane.

The set-up: Last season Georiga State upset Arkansas State 52-38 as a 6.5-point underdog and I think it has a legitimate shot at winning this contest outright as well. The Panthers opened the season with a 34-31 OT loss to Louisiana-Lafayette and then had their next contest postponed. On OCtober 3rd they beat ACC foe East Carolina 49-29 as a two-point underdog. Georgia State won the yardage battle 485-286. Cornelious Brown has four touchdowns and three INT's, but the Panthers have averaged 40 PPG, while allowing 31.5. 

The pick: Arkansas State enters off a 50-27 win over FCS opponent Central Arkansas. The Red Wolves won the yardage battle 573 to 411. Arkansas State utilizes two quarterbacks this year in Layne Hatcher and Logan Bonner. The Red Wolves though are 0-3 in their last three as a favorite vs. an FBS opponent, while Georgia State enters with a 6-3 ATS record out of its last nine when playing the role of underdog. The Panthers secondary already has five interceptions, so I think the Red Wolves have a difficult time moving the ball today. I'm grabbing the points.

This is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on Georgia State.

The set-up: The Ragin Cajun's blew the Chanticleers away in last year's 48-7 win, but I expect Coastal Carolina to be much more competitive this season. The Chanticleers went 5-7 last year. This season they're 3-0. Eight starters returned to the offensive side of the ball and in the early going they're averaging 44.3 PPG. CC had 38 in a win over Kansas to open the season. Grayson McCall had 322 yards and four TD's last week. Last year CC allowed 33.2 PPG, this season it's conceding just 22.3.

The pick: UL Lafayette hasn't played since September 26th because of Covid issues. The Ragin Cajuns went 11-3 last year and they're 3-0 this season. In their last game they held on for a 20-18 victory over Georgia Southern. GSU had 447 yards of offense, including 192 on the ground. Overall the Cajuns average 28.3 PPG this season. Coastal Carolina is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record though and 5-1 ATS in its last six following a straight-up win of more than 20 points, while Louisiana is 0-4 ATS in its last four conference contests. Revenge is on CC's mind here and while the outright is possible, in the end I'm grabbing up the ample points!

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Coastal Carolina.

The set-up: Two contrasting styles of play here, as Indianapolis gets the job done with defense, while the Browns try to run their opponents off the field with their high-powered offense. The Colts are averaging 25.8 PPG and they're allowing 14. The Browns are averaging 31.0 and they're conceding 31.5. 

The pick: But Cleveland has averaged 39.3 PPG over its last three and this offense is firing on all cylinders. The Colts will have their hands full with Nick Chubb and this Browns rushing game which leads the NFL. Baker Mayfield is dual threat himself. I think this is a big opportunity for Cleveland's defense as well, as the Colts don't ask Philip Rivers to ever do too much. I'm all over Cleveland in this one.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Cleveland Browns.

The set-up: Jacksonville somehow upset the Colts in Week 1, but it's since gone 0-3 since that victory. The Texans clearly enter as the hungrier team, as they're 0-4 and they just finished firing their general manager and head coach in Bill O'Brien. The Texans have played four straight tough defenses, but now they face one of the worst defenses in the entire league. Houston's JJ Watt is furious right now and he'll be taking it upon himself to lead the unit on that side of the field. The combination of DeShaun Watson and David Johnson will be just too much for Gardner Minshew and this undermanned Jaguars team to keep up with down the stretch.

The pick: Note that the Texans are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after two or more SU/ATS losses as well. I think the coaching change finally wakes up Watson and company and I expect this one to be a rout from start to finish. Lay the points.

This is a 9* ATS BLOWOUT on the Houston Texans.

The set-up: Arizona is overhyped and it's clearly dealing with chemistry issues. Sam Darnold is probably better than Joe Flacco, but the Jets defense is going to have its opportunities today. So far New York has seven picks and six sacks through four games. 

The pick: The Cardinals just lost to the Panthers, so to try and pretend they don't have issues across all three phases would be a mistake as well. Last week Arizona had zero sacks vs. Teddy Bridgewater. Arizona admittedly has the better talent, but that talent is having big chemistry issues. The Jets are the desperate and winless home side. I'm grabbing the points and expecting this one to come right down to the wire.

This is an 8* PLAY-BOOK on the New York Jets.

The set-up: I'm not predicting an outright upset, but I do think that the Giants can comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch here. New York is coming off a 36-9 loss to San Francisco at home, so clearly not many are giving them much of a chance in this one. The Rams are coming off a heart-breaking loss on the road in Buffalo and with a "cream puff" matchup in Washington next weekend, the possibility of them taking the foot off the gas in the second half is big. 

The pick: The Giants are playing for pride here as they look to get off the schneid. Note that New York is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after three straight SU/ATS losses. No outright, but closer than expected.

This is an 8* COACH'S CORNER on the New York Giants.

The set-up: New Orleans will look to avoid an 1-3 hole here. The Saints catch a complacent Lions team off an improbable road win in Arizona. The Lions are allowing 30.7 PPG and they're scoring only 23.3. 

The pick: The Saints are the better team through all three phases here and from a situational stand point, it sets up well for them in the dome at Ford Field, but also note that the Lions are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 as an underdog, while New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road favorite. Lay the points, expect a blowout.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the New Orleans Saints.