This game is being played in Atlanta (State Farm Arena) as part of the 2022 “Holiday Hoopsgiving” event. 

It’s not been a great start to the year for Loyola, who is 4-5 straight up and 2-7 against the spread. But I do think this is a good time to back the Ramblers, plus the points, as they are facing a Clemson team due for some shooting regression after sinking 50% (or better) of their FG attempts in four straight games. 

Clemson has just two losses and both were close games. They lost by two at South Carolina (their only true road game so far) and then by three to Iowa in the Emerald Coast Classic (which was played down in Florida).  But the Tigers have had their fair share of close victories as well. Beating Penn State required two overtimes and earlier this week they escaped a game with Towson, winning by just five.

Loyola started this season ranked in the Top 60 over at KenPom but have now dropped outside the Top 100. Like I said it’s a good buy low spot as this team is definitely better than what its shown. This was a Sweet 16 team last March, much to the delight of Sister Jean (now 103 years old). 

Clemson only beat Cal (who is horrible) by eight.  Loyola has had some close losses and this will be only the second time they’ve been an underdog so far.  Not sure I’m ready to buy Clemson just yet, despite its 8-2 record. They won’t continue to hit 42% from three, moving forward.  Take the points. 10*

Gonzaga is now just 2-7 against the spread this year, including 0-5 the last five games. I played against the Zags in their last game, which saw them barely get by Kent State, here at home. The market remains too high on this team and I’ll take the points against Friday with Washington coming to Spokane.

Washington is off a 73-63 win over Colorado that squared away their Pac 12 record at 1-1. The Huskies have already beaten the “other” top WCC team, that being St. Mary’s, and did so in impressive fashion by going to a neutral site and prevailing 68-64 as a 10-point underdog. Overall, the Huskies are 7-2 straight up (better record than Gonzaga!) and have covered four of their last five games. 

Now Franck Kepnang is done for the season for Washington, due to a knee injury, which is a major blow. But this team plays terrific defense, which will keep them in a lot of games like this one. Huskies’ opponents are shooting only 26% from three. 

They are also great at forcing turnovers, notable because Gonzaga comes in having given the ball away on 19.4% of its possessions this season. The Zags have also been bad when it comes to fouling. Washington already gets to the FT line at a decent rate and is shooting 75% there. 

An in-state rivalry, this game means more to UW, who has lost six straight times to the Zags. I expect the underdog to hang around in this one. Take the points. 10* 

Utah has won three in a row and covered four in a row to get to 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS. Look for the Utes to win handily tonight against a Jacksonville State team that’s coming off some close calls and not really used to this level of competition.

Jacksonville State last played on Saturday. They went on the road and beat E Tenn St 63-61 as a 2.5 point underdog. Leading the way was Skyelar Potter with 27 points. He’s the team’s leading scorer. Notable, however, were two things. The Gamecocks really benefited from E Tenn St going 8 of 26 from three-point range. There was also a +10 advantage in free throw makes and attempts, a rarity for the ROAD team in College Basketball.

Prior to beating E Tenn St, the Gamecocks had played three other true road games. They’d lost all of them and were blown out twice, losing by 18 at New Mexico and by 42 at Alabama. In the KenPom ratings, Utah is higher than all previous Jacksonville State opponents with the exception of ‘Bama. 

Jacksonville State needs to hit their threes to have any chance. But Utah is holding opponents to 22.5% shooting from behind the arc this season and allows fewer than one point per possession overall. Remember this game is at elevation, which should make it tough on the JSU shooters.

Utah has gotten off to a 2-0 start in Pac 12 play, beating Arizona and Washington State. If they can beat Arizona by 15 here at home, they should be able to win by the necessary margin here tonight. 8*

San Jose State just got absolutely waxed by Arkansas over the weekend, losing by 41. After taking a shellacking like that from a Top 10 team, I worry about the Spartans’ psyche heading into this game against Cal State Bakersfield where the oddsmakers are asking them to win by a decent margin. 

Now things didn’t go so well for CS Bakersfield in their last game either. They lost to Dartmouth by 25. That was just the second double digit loss for the Roadrunners though and the first came at Utah. 

CS Bakersfield was just 3 of 12 from three in that last game. Expect them to improve on that number here as SJSU is allowing teams to make 37.3% from behind the arc.

The Spartans are also a bad free throw shooting team (64.3%), which is yet another reason to want to fade them as a favorite. 

So in a battle of two teams off blowout losses, I’ll grab the points. It’s a low total, so with points likely at a premium it seems wise to be on the dog. The number has even dropped a bit, but there’s still plenty of value here. 10*

Love the spot here for St. Joe’s heading into this “Big 5” matchup with Philly rival Temple on Tuesday. The Hawks just suffered an embarrassing defeat at the hands of Fairleigh Dickinson while Temple is coming off three consecutive wins/covers. That’s opened up some real value on the underdog in this matchup.

St. Joe’s was a 12-point favorite when they lost to Fairleigh Dickinson. They were blitzed, giving up 97 points as FDU somehow shot an incomprehensible 57.6% from the field including 12 of 24 from three. I don’t see Temple doing that here.

While the Hawks have lost three of the last four games overall, including both when they were favored (also vs. USF), they do hold an outright win (as 5.5-point dogs) over another city rival (Penn) during that same stretch. 

While Temple has covered three in a row as a favorite, they were 0-3 ATS laying points prior to the current streak. Just don’t think the Owls are a team built to win by margin, at least not consistently. 

A key thing to watch in this game is that Temple really struggles to defend the pick and roll. St. Joe’s is a top 60 PNR offense. Take the points. 10*

Interesting matchup here as Kent State is a perfect 7-0 against the spread while Gonzaga is just 1-6 ATS its last eight games.

I’m assuming that at some point the market will catchup with these two teams. But I’m not sure it has here. Gonzaga is coming off a major gag job against Baylor last Friday where it blew a seven-point lead in the final 93 seconds. 

I suppose there is an argument, coming off a loss like that, the Zags will be fired up and looking to take their frustrations out. But do we really think they’ll be THAT motivated by a visit from Kent State, after losing a rematch of the Title Game from two years ago and a four-run down in Portland?

The underdog, on the other hand, should be really fired up and ready to go. This is a team that only lost by five at Houston (49-44) and its only two losses are by a combined seven points.

Yes, Gonzaga’s ability to score is always a concern. But Kent State is 12th nationally in 2-point FG% defense and top six in forcing turnovers. The Golden Flashes could have pulled the outright upset at Houston had it not been for some woeful shooting from three-point range (6 of 29) and Sincere Carry (who was 2 of 22). Take the points. 10* 

St. John’s is still unbeaten, one of 14 teams in the country that can still say that, but I believe they’ll go down for the first time Sunday in Ames. Iowa State’s only loss was to one of the very best teams in the country (UConn), at a neutral site, and has continued to be an incredible story after going 2-22 SU two years ago.

Remember that the Cyclones have already defeated Villanova and North Carolina this season. They come in off a win over North Dakota - where they failed to cover as big 24-point favorites - but still won 63-44. Although laying points, we don’t need a big win here. 

This is the final game of the Big East-Big 12 Battle. So far, the Big East holds a 5-4 head to head edge after a couple of wins on Saturday (Villanova over Oklahoma, Xavier over W Virginia). But the real interesting thing is that the home team is a perfect 9-0 straight up so far in this event, also covering the spread seven times.

St. John’s hasn’t really played anybody and this is their first true road game of the season. I’d say some of their numbers are misleading due to the lack of competition. The Red Storm did not cover in either of the last two wins, against Long Island or Niagara.

Iowa State is the better defensive team in this matchup. They are surrendering an average of only 56.3 points/game thus far and only 44.7 here in Ames! Look for the ‘Clones to hand the Johnnies their first loss of the season and cover the spread in the process. 10* 

UNLV is undefeated (7-0). Only 14 other teams can still say that. The Runnin’ Rebels are allowing 57.7 points/game and have been off for a week. Look for them to roll tonight at San Diego.

San Diego has lost three times, twice by just two points. But those losses were to Utah Tech and Nicholls State, hardly the same level of competition they’ll face tonight.

The Rebels haven’t been the most prolific offensive team, but they are turning opponents over more than any team in the country. That leads to extra points that are critical when needing to cover as a favorite. They also don’t foul much.

San Diego is letting teams shoot 48% so the UNLV offensive effort should be better than normal tonight.

Not only are the Torerors 0 for their last 5 (straight up) as a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points, but they are 5-24 SU L29 as a dog! UNLV is far superior than what this line suggests. 10*

Charleston has gotten off to a nice start at 7-1, which includes winning their home tournament. Now three of their wins (Richmond, Va Tech and Kent St) were all by three points. But remember that the Cougars’ only loss, to North Carolina, had a misleading 102-86 final score. The Cougs led that game into the second half. 

Now this will be Charleston’s first time leaving home since that loss to North Carolina and also their first time laying double digits this season. But I think they’ll be up for the “challenge” against The Citadel, who may be looking ahead to their own game vs. UNC in 10 days. 

The Citadel was blown out at Butler earlier this year, losing by 47. Since then, they’ve won three of four with the only loss by three points. But the level of competition has not been strong and I believe the Bulldogs are severely outclassed here. 

Charleston likes to play fast as they are inside the Top 50 nationally adjusted tempo. That’s going to be a problem for The Citadel, who only averages 67.7 points on 43% shooting when you remove non-DI competition. 

While the teams haven’t met since 2016, this is a bit of a local rivalry (campuses just 2 miles apart) and Charleston has captured the L10 meetings. They’ll look to win in blowout fashion here. 8* 

Delaware is only 3-3 but all three losses occurred away from home, one of them at Duke. In fact, this will be just the second home game for the Blue Hens with the first one being the season opener, which was a 78-54 win over non-DI Wilmington. Off the loss at Penn Sunday, I look for Delaware to bounce back tonight.

Cornell makes its two straight Ivy League opponents for Delaware, but the Big Red are not as good as Penn. They do play faster and that has led to 87.4 points/game during a five-game win streak. But those five wins have been against SUNY-Delhi, St. Francis (PA), Ithaca, Canisius and Monmouth. Not exactly a “murderer’s row” there. 

We’ve already seen this line tick up a bit and I completely agree with the move. I know Delaware struggled to get stops against Penn and that’s concerning when turning around and facing an offense like Cornell. But this being a home game is huge for the Blue Hens. 

They’ve won 16 of their last 24 games here and are also 22-6 straight up their last 28 games as a favorite. With such a short number, that seems worth mentioning. 

This is back to back road games for Cornell and while there’s been nearly a week between games, the Big Red simply can’t continue to shoot as well as they have. Lay the points. 10*

Miami treated me kindly on Sunday at UCF as they were my 10* Game of the Month and delivered (just barely) an ATS win. The Hurricanes won by 2 (66-64) as 1.5-point favorites. Back in Coral Gables, I’m expecting a much larger margin of victory tonight as “The U” hosts Rutgers as part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge.

The Hurricanes brought back a ton of experience from a group that made it to the Elite Eight last March. Jim Larranaga also did a good job in the transfer portal and the result is he has a team with four double digit scorers, led by Isaiah Wong, who is the team leader in points, assists and steals. 

This will be Rutgers’ first true road game this season. They’ve already lost on a neutral floor to Temple, which is the only game this season where they weren’t at home. Miami not only has the win at UCF, but also a neutral court victory over Providence. They’ve won the first four home games by an average of 19 points.

Rutgers has been good defensively, but lacks experience and that’s what has me worried for them heading into tonight’s contest. 

KenPom has Miami as a Top 27 team in the country in offensive efficiency. Rutgers has not faced anyone nearly as good as the Hurricanes so far, so expect them to fail their first road test. 10*

Iowa should roll here in what promises to be another easy win for the Big 10 against the ACC. The Hawkeyes come in at 5-1 on the season and, as per usual, are one of the more lethal offensive teams in the country. KenPom has them seventh in adjusted offensive efficiency.

Now some might make the case that the Hawkeyes have been trending down ever since their big 16-point win at Seton Hall. They did blow out Omaha by 36 (hanging 100 in the process), however then only managed to beat Clemson (another ACC team) by three points and then lost to TCU, getting held to a season-low 66 points.

But Georgia Tech is not TCU. The Yellow Jackets are outside the Top 120 at KenPom and were blown out by Marquette, losing on a neutral floor by 24. They also lost to Utah. 

Every GT game with an O/U line has stayed Under, but that figures to probably change after tonight. In three previous games here in Iowa City, the Hawkeyes have scored 100+ twice and 89 in the other game. 

Just too much offense from Iowa in this one for the underdog to stay within the number. Georgia Tech is shooting below 30% from three, so I just don’t see how they can stay close. This team barely won at Georgia State. Iowa has covered 15 of the last 19 times it has been a home favorite of 12.5 or more points. 8* 

There are a couple of Big 10-ACC Challenge matchups today where I think the Big 10 team should roll. This is definitely one of them as Maryland faces a Louisville team that could be the biggest disaster in the entire country right now.

Louisville is not just 0-6 straight up, its worst start in over 80 years, but also 0-6 against the spread. They are one of just eight teams left that hasn’t covered a single spread. The season started with three straight one-point losses. Things have only gotten worse for the Cardinals since then. They lost to Arkansas, Texas Tech and Cincinnati by a combined 77 points. None of the games ended up closer than 19. 

Maryland is undefeated (6-0) and on par with those last three teams that Louisville has faced. Actually, the Terrapins are substantially better than Cincinnati. KenPom also has them rated above Texas Tech. They are ranked 22nd in the latest AP Poll, which is in line with KenPom.

The Terps six wins have come by an average of 21.3 points/game and they are allowing just 61.3 points/game. All six wins have been by at least 16 points and they are 5-1 ATS. They have averaged 93 points themselves in the last three games and have beaten the likes of Miami FL and St. Louis. 

This should be another long night for Louisville, who struggles to take care of the basketball. 10*

We’ve got two 5-1 teams from the Sunshine State squaring off here. Miami FL is looking to avenge a six-point loss from last year. That previous matchup took place in Coral Gables and the Hurricanes were three-point favorites. You may recall that the ‘Canes ended up making it all the way to the Elite 8.

That loss last year took place in just the second game of the season. Despite the rematch, Miami is again a slight favorite to win here. This is the first true road game for Jim Larranga’s team, which has looked good so far with the exception of an 18-point loss to Maryland.

UCF lost to UNC Asheville (98-95) in the season opener. Since then, the Knights have stormed back to win and cover five in a row. They won a tournament in the Bahamas, then came back home to defeat Evansville by 20 earlier this week.

But this is a tough matchup for UCF. Miami has better guard play and I think UCF’s defensive numbers are a bit fraudulent.  The Knights were able to slow down Santa Clara in the Bahamas. But Miami as the most efficient offense UCF has seen this year.

The Canes are 14-7 ATS L21 road games and 12-4 ATS L16 against teams that allowed fewer than 64.5 points/game. Lay the short number. 10*

Butler and North Carolina State will wrap up the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament Friday night with fifth place on the line.

Butler was crushed in its first game here, losing 71-45 to Tennessee (was close for a half). But the Bulldogs bounced back with a 75-70 win over BYU last night. NC State got a lucky cover in its first game here (thanks to a last-second three), an 80-74 loss to Kansas. The Wolfpack then surprised me a bit by defeating Dayton 76-64 as a three-point underdog last night.

Looking at NC State as a whole, they are overly reliant on three-pointers to score and weak on the interior defensively.

Even in the blowout loss to Tennessee, Butler did a good job defensively, allowing only 1.03 points/possession.

The transfer portal has given Butler a key edge here. They now have Manny Bates, who chose to leave Raleigh. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Bates be the difference tonight. 10*

The nightcap in the Battle 4 Atlantis features #22 Tennessee taking on Butler. Need I remind you that the Volunteers have already lost a game this year, a real stunner to Colorado. The final score there was 78-66, a game the Vols were supposed to win by 16 points.

Butler also has a loss, on the road to Penn State, but I think that the Bulldogs’ offense has looked great so far. They’ve put up 89 or more points three times for Thad Matta, who is back here after becoming the winningest coach in Ohio State history.

Matta has five double digit scorers right now and Butler is top five in the country in both eFG% and two-point FG%. I know that Tennessee is solid defensively (#3 in efficiency per KenPom), but the Bulldogs will find a way to score enough to cover this generous spread.

Tennessee is also turning the ball over more than you’d like to see. The team’s point guard from last season, Kennedy Chandler, is now in the NBA. The Vols will obviously look to shoot a high-volume of threes here, but the only made 27% against Colorado, notable because that’s the only time so far they’ve played away from Knoxville.

In fact, Rick Barnes’ team is shooting just 37% overall from the field. I think the favorite struggles to score here and that leads to, at the very least, an ATS loss for UT. This is what I’d consider to be a “generous” number. 10*

The Final of the Maui Invitational should be a good one as we’ve got two Top 15 teams set to do battle - #10 Creighton and #14 Arizona. Both teams remain undefeated with Creighton 6-0 and Arizona 5-0. But, if I can state the obvious, someone is heading for their first loss here. 

Backing Creighton yesterday paid off for me as the Bluejays handed Arkansas its first loss of the season. As I said, that was a good matchup for Creighton as the Razorbacks are not particularly good at shooting threes and Creighton takes good care of the basketball.

It also helps that the Bluejays have shot the lights out thus far. They are making 52% of their field goal attempts thus far, which probably won’t continue. They shot 58.5% yesterday vs. Arkansas. 

Arizona does a good job at defending the interior, which is where Creighton finds a lot of its offensive success.

Creighton’s win was impressive yesterday and I certainly enjoyed it. But Arizona beating San Diego State by 17 was even more impressive. Talk about offense. The Wildcats scored 87 points yesterday and that was their lowest scoring game of the season! Three times they’ve hit 100! I’m laying the points. 10*

Two unbeaten 4-0 teams will tip off the Battle 4 Atlantis Wednesday afternoon, but there’s obviously a big gulf in class between #3 Kansas and unranked North Carolina State. 

The big story here is that Bill Self will be on the Jayhawks’ bench for the first time this season, after serving a self-imposed four-game suspension. I think that, and the close call against Southern Utah (just a six-point win), will have KU properly motivated for this tournament contest.

Remember that Kansas already holds a win over Duke in the Champions Classic. Jalen Wilson is leading the team with 24.5 points/game and has set career highs in points each of the last two games, including 33 vs. Southern Utah.

This Battle 4 Atlantis tournament marks the first time NC State has left home this season. They are really diving into the deep end here after facing Austin Peay, Campbell, FIU and Elon all in the comfortable confines of Raleigh. The Wolfpack like to take a lot of threes, but so far Kansas has held its opponents to 25.5% from behind the arc.

NC State, projected for a 10th place finish in the ACC this year, is going to struggle defensively in this matchup. Particular when it comes to preventing Kansas’ wings from driving to the hoop. Since the start of 2020-21, the Wolfpack have covered the number just one-third of the time (20-40 ATS) and are 12-26 ATS vs. winning teams. Lay it. 10* 

Creighton and Arkansas are two teams coming off impressive wins Monday in Maui. The Bluejays beat Texas Tech 76-65 while the Razorbacks smoked hapless Louisville 80-54. These two teams are now a combined 9-0 straight up to start the year with Creighton at 5-0 and Arkansas 4-0. 

Only one can remain unbeaten after Tuesday, obviously. While Arkansas’ margin of victory was greater on Monday, I’d argue Creighton’s win was more impressive, given who they beat. This could also be the spot where not having five-star recruit Nick Smith Jr (listed as “day to day”) finally catches up with the Razorbacks. 

The biggest area of concern for Creighton is defending the three-point line. But fortunately for them, Arkansas does not make, or even take, a ton of threes. The Hogs are shooting just 30% from deep through four games and average only five makes per game.

Where Arkansas thrives is forcing turnovers. But Creighton is well-suited to counteract that as they don’t turn it over much, ranking 13th in the country in TO rate. 

With four double digit scorers, Creighton is shooting the ball exceptionally well thus far. Look for them to prevail in this battle of Top 10 teams. 10*

The Finals of the Hall of Fame Classic (played in Kansas City) go down Tuesday afternoon with 5-0 San Francisco taking on 3-1 Wichita State. Both teams won their semifinal games in impressive fashion yesterday. USF knocked off Northern Iowa 75-69 while Wichita State beat Grand Canyon 55-43. 

We’ve already seen a change in favorite with the line moving in San Francisco’s direction. Considering the Dons failed to cover against Northern Iowa (were -7), that’s pretty interesting, but I also happen to agree with the line move. 

The Dons like to play fast, much faster than Wichita State would like, and they take a lot of threes. They were 14 of 36 from behind the arc yesterday. The fact they were behind by 11 entering halftime may not sound all that encouraging, but the way they stormed back in the second half was. Also, while the Dons do love to shoot the three, you’ve got to expect they’ll make more than 11 two-point field goals in this game (that’s how many they made vs. N Iowa).

Wichita State is rightly earning praise following wins over Richmond and Grand Canyon, but let’s not forget this team also lost - as a 16-point favorite - at home to Alcorn State. I just don’t see the Shockers (57, 56, 55 points L3 games) scoring enough to stick with San Francisco this afternoon. 

Teams are shooting just 22% from three against Wichita State this season. There’s simply no way that can continue. San Francisco is the ideal team to send the Shockers’ 3-point defense into negative regression. Look out for Khalil Shabazz, who had 24 points yesterday for the Dons. 10* 

We head to Maui for our third and final College Hoops selection for the night. San Diego State is a favorite here over Ohio State and I expect the Aztecs to cover the number here.

San Diego State is a team that I’ve played before. The last time the Aztecs took the court, I laid a similar number (on the road) to Stanford and they easily came out ahead, 74-62. 

The Aztecs are outstanding defensively as they were a year ago. Last year they ended up #2 in the country at KenPom in defensive efficiency. So far this season, they are eighth. 

In terms of experience, SDSU has the edge here with four of last year’s five starters returning. They also added a key piece via the transfer portal with Darrion Trammell, who had averaged 19.5 points the first two games before going 0 for 5 from the field against Stanford. I’d expect a bounce back from Trammell tonight.

Ohio State had to hit the transfer portal hard after losing the likes of E.J. Liddell and Malakai Branham. Holden, Likekele and McNeil have all proven that they can be key contributors, but the relatively young Buckeyes have yet to face an opponent that’s this challenging defensively. Lay the points. 10*

Utah takes on Georgia Tech here as part of the Fort Myers Tipoff. These teams are in the event’s “Beach Division.” Every team from the “Beach Division” was successful in games vs. teams from the “Palms Division” with one exception, that being Utah, who lost 65-55 to Sam Houston State as a 10-point favorite.

As a result of that embarrassing defeat, expect the Utes to come out motivated tonight. First off, SHSU had previously beaten Oklahoma before beating the Utes. The other big takeaway from that game is how SHSU, a team that was making only 50% of its free throws, went 12 of 14 from the line against Utah. 

Utah is usually pretty sound defensively. They’re allowing a FG% of just 34.0 and 53.7 points/game. I don’t think it will be very difficult to guard a Georgia Tech team that is only averaging five made three-pointers per game thus far.

The Yellow Jackets are 3-0 following an 18-point win over Northern Illinois last week. But this is easily their toughest test yet and being so limited offensively, I expect the underdog to struggle. 

One of the tallest teams in the entire country, look for Utah to dominate the boards in this matchup. We’re getting a cheap price on the Utes because of the previous result. Take advantage. 10* 

This is the Final of the Continental Tire Main Event in Las Vegas. #16 Virginia upset #5 Baylor to get here while #19 Illinois rallied back to beat #8 UCLA. Whoever wins this thing is going to have a nice mark on their resume.

I like Illinois to win. Here’s the thing. Virginia just can’t possibly hope to shoot the ball as well here as they did vs. Baylor. 

The Cavaliers made 55.6% of their overall field goal attempts on Friday and were 9 of 14 from downtown. They also attempted 35 free throws and made 27. 

Illinois, I believe, has the edge here both on the inside and from behind the arc. Terrance Shannon Jr, a transfer from Texas Tech, is the player to watch. He scored 29 points against UCLA and was 8 of 9 from three.

Virginia has been uncharacteristically bad at defending the three-point line so far. They rank outside the top 300 in 3pt% allowed. Illinois scored 51 pts in the second half vs. UCLA after going for 103 against Monmouth and 86.5 PPG in the two contests before that. 10* 

Lots of neutral site tournament action in Friday College Hoops, but here we’ve got Indiana traveling to Xavier for a true road game as part of the Gavitt Games. I think the Hoosiers are - by far - the better team here and will cover the spread without much trouble. 

Morehead State and Bethune-Cookman are hardly what I’d call “high-caliber” opposition, but those first two IU opponents didn’t stand a chance, losing 35 and 52 respectively. The Hoosiers have shot almost 60% from the field so far and Mike Woodson has a deep team here. 

Many believe Woodson’s team is going to win the Big 10 this year and I’m not going to disagree with that assessment, especially with what we’re also seeing at the defensive end (allowing just .664 points/possession). 

Sean Miller is back at Xavier for a second stint. But I’m not really high on this Musketeers team despite starting the year with three double digit wins (over Morgan State, Montana and Fairfield). There’s no way they will continue to shoot 45.5% from three.

First-team All Big East selection Colby Jones sat out against Fairfield due to an ankle injury suffered in practice. They didn’t need him in the last game, but Jones would be a significant loss going against a team like Indiana. 10*

I’m expecting this first game in the U.S. Virgin Islands Paradise Jam to be a blowout. All signs point the favorite (Drake) winning very big.

About the only positive thing I can say about Buffalo right now is they are playing fast. The Bulls are listed at #1 in adjusted tempo over at KenPom. However, being that they are so inexperienced, the fast pace has led to a lot of turnovers and poor defense. Through three games, UB is 313th in turnovers while allowing 58% shooting from inside the arc (311th) and they are sending opponents to the free throw line at a very high rate as well. 

The result is a 1-2 start with nearly 90 points/game allowed. After beating Colgate by a single point, the Bulls have lost by 35 to James Madison (at home) and by 20 to UConn.

Drake is a team that can take advantage of Buffalo’s deficiencies. The Bulldogs should have beaten Wofford by more than they did on Monday. They won by only eight because Wofford made six more threes. It was a pretty woeful 5 of 24 for Drake from behind the arc. 

But they shot 68% on two-point attempts. Remember what I said earlier about Buffalo’s poor interior defense. Drake doesn’t turn the ball over much either. They’ve scored 80 points against two teams that like to play slow. Here, against a sloppy, inexperienced team, the Bulldogs should put a ton of points on the board and cover the number rather easily. 10* 

A “mid-major” laying points on the road against a Power 5 Conference team speaks volumes and in the case of San Diego State-Stanford, the number is more than justified. SDSU is no “ordinary” mid-major. They’ve made back to back NCAA Tournament appearances and are the preseason favorite to win the Mountain West. Meanwhile, Stanford has yet to appear in the Big Dance since Jerod Haase came to Palo Alto in 2016.

San Diego State is excellent defensively. They ranked 2nd in efficiency in the KenPom rankings a year ago and have allowed the ninth fewest points per 100 possessions to start this season. The Aztecs held Cal State Fullerton to 57 points and BYU to 75. 

Stanford figures to have all sorts of trouble scoring tonight. The Cardinal are shooting just 23.7% from three thus far and were just held to 50 points by Wisconsin on Friday. They are 0-2 ATS on the year, having also failed to cover the season opener vs. Pacific.

A real encouraging sign for San Diego State to start the season is that they’ve scored 80 points in both games. That’s something they did only once all of last season. Stanford let Pacific score 78. 

Back to the San Diego State defense - they have been outstanding at forcing turnovers. CS Fullerton and BYU coughed it up a combined 38 times. Not only has Stanford turned it over a total of 34 times so far, but they had one of the worst turnover rates in the country last year. This is a terrible matchup for the home side. Lay the points. 10* San Diego State

This is a tough spot for Wofford. After losing 91-80 at High Point, a game they were favored to win, this is the second road game in three days for the Terriers. I don’t like their chances.

Meanwhile, Drake has played only once - last Wednesday - and they easily defeated IUPUI by a score of 80-48. 

For Wofford, the best player from last season is back. B.J. Mack led the team in points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks in 2021-22. Mack has averaged 18 points in the first two games this year. The problem is that he doesn’t have much returning help. After Mack, last year’s top seven scorers all departed. They’ve been replaced by JUCOs and six freshmen. 

Against High Point, the Terriers never really stood a chance. They were down 17 at halftime and just couldn’t get enough stops in the second half.

Unlike tonight’s opponent, Drake is an experienced team. Five players started at least 13 games on last year’s 25-win squad, making them the logical favorite to win the Missouri Valley Conference in 2022-23. The Bulldogs are a very deserved double digit favorite in this game and should have no problem covering the spread. 10*

Kansas State figures to struggle when the Big 12 portion of the schedule begins, so it is imperative that the Wildcats perform well against non-conference opponents. Tonight’s game vs. Cal typifies the concept of “must win” and I believe they will - by a comfortable margin.

There are nine newcomers on the roster this year in Manhattan. Yet the season opener vs. UTRGV could not have gone any better. Now KSU was expected to win big as 22-point favorites. But they ended up delivering a 34-point victory, which was a very encouraging sign.

On the other hand, Cal’s season did not get off to a rousing start. As a six-point favorite here in Berkeley, they lost outright to UC Davis as a six-point favorite. Over the game’s final 9:30, the Bears made only one field goal.

Cal is not exactly expected to light it up this year as they were picked to finish second to last in the Pac 12. 

Six players finished in double figures for K-State in the opener. Cal shot just 38.1% as a team in its first game. I know it’s a small sample size, but the road team is a justifiable favorite in this one and should roll. 10*

While Marquette won its first game against Radford by only 10 points, I’m expecting a blowout tonight. The Golden Eagles were up 21 on Radford before a five-minute scoring drought helped close the gap and make the final score closer than it should have been.

This is the first game of the season for Central Michigan. The Chippewas are off their worst season in many years as they finished 7-23 overall. They were competitive in the MAC, losing by an average of only six points per game, but struggled against non-conference foes, going 1-10 losing by 18 points/game.

Need I remind you that Marquette is NOT a MAC team? 

The Golden Eagles were solid defensively in the opener, limiting Radford to 20% shooting from three. The problem was they shot just 26% from three themselves and also turned it over 18 times. 

But I expect a more solid game from start to finish from Shaka Smart’s team tonight. They had four double digit scorers vs. Radford. CMU lost a lot from last season’s roster and figures to really struggle in the early going. Four of the top five scorers and rebounders from last year departed. A team that turned it over on nearly 20% of its possessions in 2021-22 figures to not fare well against a Smart-coached team. 10*

This number has already been bet down, but there’s still value with underdog Montana. 

The Grizzlies experienced a terrible finish to last season, losing 8 of their last 11 games. Before that, they were 15-6 overall and 8-2 vs. the rest of the Big Sky Conference. I believe this team is going to be on a mission to start the season and it helps that last year’s leading scorer Josh Bannan (15.1 points/game) is back.

There were a couple of key transfers brought into Missoula as well. The most notable being Dischon Thomas from Colorado State.  

After going 6-24 with 17 straight losses last season, Duquesne head coach Keith Dambrot decided to clean house and he’s basically got a whole new roster coming into the year. Four of the top six scorers from last year are gone as are 7 of the 10 players that averaged at least nine minutes per game. One of the key new pieces, Tevin Brewer, is out due to an appendectomy. 

Montana was very effective from the free throw line last season, ranking 11th nationally in FT percentage. They also were top 35 in fewest turnover rate. Duquesne was bottom 20 in the country in home field goal shooting percentage and bottom 10 in three-point shooting percentage allowed. Take the points here. 10*

This is one of the “juicier” matchups on Opening Night of the College Basketball season as two teams coached by former NBA All-Stars collide. 

Memphis went 22-11 last season, including 13-5 in the American Conference, and made the NCAA Tournament. In the Big Dance, Anfernee Hardaway’s team gave Gonzaga a real scare in the second round as they had a 10-point lead at halftime. Eventually though, the Tigers would lose by four points. 

Vanderbilt went just 19-17 last season and they were 7-11 in the SEC for Jerry Stackhouse. Notably, the Commodores were just 1-7 when up against a ranked team. Memphis may not be ranked heading into 2022-23, but they are certainly the better team in this matchup.

Kendric Davis is a key transfer for Memphis, coming over from conference rival SMU. Davis joins holdovers Alex Lomax and DeAndre Williams for what should be a formidable scoring trio. The Tigers have nine seniors on the roster, so it’s a veteran team and I look for them to attack Vandy inside in this matchup. 

Vanderbilt lost their best player from last year, Scottie Pippen Jr, to the NBA. I think they’re going to struggle to score here against what should be one of the best defensive teams in the entire country. Furthermore, not only should Memphis have success attacking Vandy down low, but they should have a big night from three. Defending the arc was a major problem for the Commodores last season. 10*

For the second half of the Miami game and first half against Villanova, Kansas pretty clearly looked like the best team in the country. They outscored those two opponents 87-44 over that 40 minute span. Now you may consider that to be “cherry picking” the best of the Jayhawks. But at no point in this NCAA Tournament have I ever believed they were in real danger of being eliminated.

North Carolina trailed at the half in the Sweet 16 and Final Four. They also were taken to overtime by Baylor after blowing a 25-point lead. The Tar Heels were an 8-seed coming into this Tournament, so few expected them to get this far. This is the fourth time in six games where the Heels are underdogs. I think their run ends Monday. 

Let’s start with an update on the ankle injury to UNC’s Armando Bacot. Coach Hubert Davis has dubbed him “ready to play,” but having your leading scorer and rebounder injured going into the biggest game of the season is not ideal. Bacot also leads the Tar Heels in blocks and field goal percentage.

I expect David McCormack of Kansas to take advantage of Bacot being less than 100 percent. McCormack went for a season-high 25 against Villanova. Also, don’t forget about Ochai Agbaji, who leads the Jayhawks in scoring. 

Kansas is more experienced on the bench as Bill Self has been here forever and won a National Championship. North Carolina’s Hubert Davis is a rookie coach. The Jayhawks’ top eight scorers have played in a combined 973 games. They were built for this. Lay the points. 

UNC is 4-0 ATS in the tournament and going back to the last couple weeks of the regular season, they are on a 10-1 SU run in their previous 11 games, also going 9-2 against the spread. Duke has covered its last three games after a last second layup by Cal State Fullerton handed the Blue Devils a 1.5 point ATS loss in Round 1. 

Both teams were eliminated by Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament. The only other loss for Duke, over their last 15 games, came to North Carolina, in Coach K’s home finale. The final score of that game was 94-81. That was after Duke won the first meeting, 87-67, in Chapel Hill. To say the Blue Devils will be highly motivated to avenge that last loss UNC is putting it mildly.

Duke was clearly the best team in the ACC this year. North Carolina has had a nice run, but it is worth mentioning that they were an 8-seed coming into the NCAA Tournament. Obviously, they are better than how they were seeded, but being an 8-seed shows they are far from the most consistent team.

The Blue Devils are just the better team here. North Carolina could have lost to either Baylor or UCLA, before they got lucky and faced a 15-seed in the Elite 8. I’ve never sensed Duke being in any danger in their tourney run.

While most teams have struggled to find their shot in the NCAA Tournament, Duke hasn’t. The Blue Devils have made over 50% of their field goal attempts and scored at least 78 points in every game.

Villanova is 4-0 ATS in the tournament. Kansas is 2-2 ATS. Villanova has not trailed at halftime in any game. Kansas, the lone 1-seed left, trailed at the half against Miami in the Elite 8, before putting the clamps down in the second half. In three of their four games thus far, the Jayhawks have allowed less than 20 points in one half. Don’t see that happening against Villanova. 

There’s a major edge at the charity stripe for ‘Nova as they are one of the best free throw shooting teams in College Basketball history. Kansas shoots it at just 72% from the FT line.

Jay Wright has fared very well in NCAA Tournament games during his time at Villanova, covering 21 of the last 27. Kansas is 7-20 ATS the previous 27 times they’ve been off a straight-up win by 20 or more points. 

Villanova is 8-3 ATS in neutral site games this season. Kansas is just 7-5 ATS. Villanova is also 27-17-2 ATS as an underdog over the last 10 seasons. They have the best overall ATS record in the country during that time.

The last five head to head meetings between Villanova and Kansas have seen ‘Nova cover all five times. They also won four of the games outright, including a National Semifinal in 2018 by a score of 95-78. These teams seem pretty even to me, and even with the Moore injury, I will be taking the points.

I like Coastal Carolina to at least cover, and probably win, The Basketball Classic. They get this game at home where they’ve already won twice in the tournament - by 24 and 16 points. Things were a lot closer when the Chanticleers had to travel to face South Alabama on Monday. But they still came out ahead 69-68 in overtime and that is not an easy place to win at (South Alabama had just two home losses previously). 

Fresno State has played all of its games at home for The Basketball Classic and I can’t see them replicating Monday when they waxed Southern Utah by 19 points. That game saw the Bulldogs make more than 50% of their threes while the opponent shot terribly (31.1% overall, 20% from three). 

Coastal Carolina is averaging 76.7 points per game at home. They outscore teams by 14.5 PPG here.

Fresno State averages only 63.1 points per game on the road. Their last road win came on February 22nd. It was against a terrible Air Force team. The Bulldogs are the favorites here and I’m not exactly sure why!

Coastal Carolina is at home, will obviously be motivated and getting points. What’s not to like? FSU is 1-4 ATS its last five tries as a favorite.

We’re down to the semifinals of “The Basketball Classic” with Coastal Carolina taking on South Alabama. Winner here will meet the winner of Southern Utah vs. Fresno State (also played tonight). I’m taking the dog. 

This game is taking place in Mobile, but the home court advantage hasn’t been a big boost to South Alabama so far in this tournament. The previous two games were at home and the Jaguars are 0-2 ATS. They obviously won both, but by a total of only six points. 

Will USA shoot 58.8% again like they did last week vs. USC Upstate? Unlikely. Coastal Carolina has held its opponents to 38.4% shooting overall for the season.

The Chanticleers have been far more dominant than South Alabama has in this tournament. CC’s first two wins have been by 24 and 16 points. Going back to the end of the regular season, this is a team that has won five of its last six games.

These teams are conference rivals, both hailing from the Sun Belt. It is a huge revenge opportunity for the underdog, who lost the only regular season matchup - by three points at home. Coastal has lost three in a row to USA, but all three losses were by six points or less. They will be amped for this opportunity to exact revenge.

St. Peter’s has stunned the College Basketball world by becoming the first 15 seed to make the Elite 8. In addition to upsets over Kentucky, Murray State and Purdue, the Peacocks have covered the spread in 10 straight games. They have not lost a game since Feb 20th at Siena. 

Somewhat lost in the Peacocks’ miracle run is the team they’re facing in the Regional Final is an 8-seed. No one expected North Carolina to get here either, even though the Tar Heels have now won 13 of their last 15 games.

With Duke advancing to the Final Four yesterday, EVERYONE is going to be anticipating a Duke-UNC rematch next weekend (UNC handed Duke a humbling loss in Coach K’s final home game).

But St. Peter’s has the better defensive efficiency rating in this matchup. They are top 25 nationally in that regard, which tells me that this run is not all smoke and mirrors. This is a team that just held Purdue, who had the country’s most efficient offense, to 64 points. 

The Peacocks may not win, but I’m taking the points. Remember that North Carolina trailed most of the game against UCLA. I don’t see the favorite scoring a ton of points in this matchup.

Houston is the favorite in this Regional Final, despite being the lower seed, as they have covered six in a row and just dispatched top seeded Arizona. The Cougars appear to be as strong as any team left in the field. They are top ten in offensive AND defensive efficiency. No other team still standing can say that.

Villanova, like Houston, is 3-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament. They’ve beaten Delaware, Ohio State and Michigan, none of whom were seeded higher than seventh (and the 7-seed Ohio State was basically a pick ‘em vs. 10-seed Loyola Chicago in the first round). ‘Nova’s shooting percentages - both overall and from three - have gone down each game.

This will be only the sixth time where the Wildcats are underdogs this year. They are 1-4 (straight up) previously in the role. Houston is one of the top pointspread teams in the entire country at 25-12 ATS, including 9-1 on a neutral court. 

The way Houston dominated Arizona, an elite team, from start to finish cannot be overlooked. All three Houston wins in this tournament have been by double digits. They’ve actually won six straight by double digits. 

Defensively, the Cougars are #1 in the country in FG% defense and I think they are going to do an excellent job at limiting Villanova’s threes. Also, look for Houston to continue to clean up on the offensive glass. They’ve collected 10+ offensive rebounds in five straight games. Villanova has allowed 11+ offensive rebounds in five of the last six games, the lone exception coming against Delaware. Lay the points. 

So Providence has proven a lot of its detractors wrong thus far by turning in two strong efforts here in the NCAA Tournament. First they defeated high-flying South Dakota State 66-57. That one was impressive because they held the second highest scoring team in the nation to almost 30 points less than its season average. Then, in the second round, the Friars really put the clamps down in a 79-51 blowout of Richmond.

Now that was a 13 and a 12 seed that Providence faced. Now they face top seeded Kansas. The Jayhawks have beaten Texas Southern (a 16-seed) and Creighton (who finished several games back of Providence in the Big East). So this is also their stiffest test so far in the Big Dance.

Providence has lost only five games this season and only three times by more than five points. That’s a fewer number of overall losses than Kansas. As an underdog, the Friars are 8-1 against the spread. 

Creighton shot well against Kansas, at least from three, where it made 43%. I think Providence is capable of replicating that kind of long-range success. The Friars are 22-1 this season when making at least 30% or better from beyond the arc.

Perfect trend alert: Providence is 8-0 ATS against teams averaging 77 or more points per game. Kansas averages 78.7. I think the Friars will hold the Jayhawks well below their season total, just as they did to South Dakota State and Richmond, both of whom shot under 36 percent. Take the points.

I think we’re about to see the end of a legendary coaching career as this should end up being Coach K’s final time on the bench when Duke faces Texas Tech.

Even though they shot 57.1 percent from the field, the Blue Devils’ 85-76 win over Michigan State in the second round was a little misleading, at least when judged on the final score. Duke trailed with under three minutes to go before closing the game on a 13-2 run. The final four points all came at the free throw line, in the last 16 seconds, giving the Blue Devils the cover.

Duke will not be shooting 57% against Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are arguably the best defensive team in the country. They just held Duke’s ACC rival Notre Dame to 32.7% shooting in a 59-53 Round 2 victory.

Texas Tech failed to cover that game as they were laying eight at the betting window. Here we do not need to really be concerned with the pointspread. By the way, the Red Raiders are 18-9 ATS this season when faced with a team that has a winning record.

Duke’s defense has been lousy for about the last two months. Over the last six games, the only team that failed to hit 76 against them was first round opponent Cal State Fullerton. Texas Tech scored 97 in its first round game, so they are more than capable of making the Blue Devils pay at the defensive end.

Washington State and BYU meet in the NIT Quarterfinals on Wednesday, at Provo. BYU has advanced to this point with consecutive 90+ point performances over Long Beach State (93-72) and Northern Iowa (90-72). Both wins came here at home.

Wazzu has gotten to this point mostly with defense, downing Santa Clara (another WCC team) 63-50 and then winning at SMU (which is not easy to do) 75-63. The Cougars were three-point underdogs for that second game.

BYU has lost only two home games this season. One was obviously to Gonzaga, the other was to San Francisco, another NCAA Tournament team. Earlier I talked about BYU’s recent offensive output. Well, they also are allowing only 63.9 points per game at home.

Washington State has played pretty well recently, but is 0-8 against NCAA Tournament teams. BYU is obviously not a NCAA Tournament team, but they were pretty close to being one; I’d say they were one of the top teams that did not get in. I like them as small home favorites.

As for the Cougars, they are just 2-6 ATS off their last eight straight up wins. That was 1-6 ATS off their last seven before upsetting SMU three days ago. BYU has had one more day to get ready for this game. 

Notre Dame has already had to win twice to get here and may very well be on fumes going into this second round matchup against Texas Tech. That’s problematic as this Red Raiders team is legit, as we saw in their complete dismantling of Montana State on Friday.

I had TT in that one. They won 97-62 as a 15-point favorite. The result was never in doubt with the Red Raiders jumping out to a 18-4 lead less than five minutes in. They wound up shooting 66.7% for the game, the fourth highest percentage ever in the first round, and made 12 of 20 threes.

Notre Dame is one of the weaker teams left in the field. Let’s not forget that it took TWO overtimes to get by Rutgers in the “First Four.” Then the Irish got hot themselves against Alabama, shooting 10 of 16 from three-point land.

But Texas Tech is perhaps the top defensive team in the country. They are 1st in the defensive efficiency rankings over at KenPom. Look for them to shut down Notre Dame in this one. 

Don’t be concerned about the Red Raiders being unable to follow up an impressive offensive display. They are 4-0 ATS off the previous four games where they scored 90 or more points.

Illinois barely survived Chattanooga in the first round, not taking the lead until the final minute. But that’s when you want to have the lead and the Illini prevailed 54-53. It was certainly not an impressive performance and I think the Fighting Illini are in trouble here against 5-seed Houston.

Houston made it to the Final Four last season. The Cougars began this year’s tourney run with a dominant 82-68 win over UAB. It’s now eight covers in the last nine games for Kelvin Sampson’s team, who is 30-5 on the year. 

Illinois was outrebounded by Chattanooga. That’s a terrible sign. So are the Illini’s offensive numbers from the L4 games, a stretch in which they’ve gone 0-4 against the spread. Three of those games have seen the team score 63 points or less and shoot worse than 40 percent from the field. They made only 3 of 17 three-point attempts against Chattanooga.

Houston averages 76 points per game while giving up an average of just 59.1. They are one of only five teams in the country to rank in the top 20 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency. This is a championship contender.

Illinois has failed to cover each of the last six times they’ve been off a straight up win. Lay the points.

So, after a sluggish start, Gonzaga was finally able to pull away from 16-seed Georgia State in the first round. The Zags used a 24-1 second half run to put the game away, but still ended up not covering the large 22.5-point spread. (They won 93-72). Once again, in the second round vs. Memphis, I think the spread will prove to be too large.

Memphis has been on a real roll down the stretch. They beat Boise State in the first round 64-53 and covered the three-point spread. The Tigers took control of that game pretty early and never were really threatened after that. They have now won 13 of their last 15 games.

I don’t think Gonzaga can count on the wide shooting discrepancy that they enjoyed vs. Georgia State. They shot 50.7%, which isn’t that atypical, but Georgia State shot just 32.9%. Memphis actually did a better job defensively against Boise State, holding the Broncos to 31.5%. 

The defensive improvement we’ve seen from the Tigers, since Penny Hardaway’s infamous press conference in late January, has been substantial. The most points they’ve given up in a game since February is 74. Only three times have they allowed more than 70.

The Tigers are 16-5 ATS their previous 21 tries as an underdog. Grab the points here.

Villanova should really smash Delaware here. The Blue Hens made a surprise run through the Colonial Tournament as the 5-seed. Now they are facing the Big East Tournament Champs and one of the best teams in the country. This isn’t exactly a Saturday vs. Northeastern.

‘Nova is 10-1 its last 11 games and that one loss was by two points. They are probably going to make a deep run in this Tournament. Late in the game, when it comes to covering this spread, it is nice that the Wildcats are the #1 team in the country when it comes to making free throws.

Delaware has never won an NCAA Tournament in five previous tries. They are also 0-15 all-time against Villanova. They had lost three straight games entering the CAA Tournament.

Since 2014, Jay Wright’s Wildcats have five wins by 20 or more points as a top two seed in the NCAA Tournament.

On offense, ‘Nova will overwhelm the Delaware. Defensively, the Wildcats allow just 63.1 points per game.

Look for Texas Tech to have no trouble beating Montana State on Friday. This 3 vs. 14 matchup is a total mismatch.

Texas Tech is #1 in the nation in defensive efficiency. This will serve them well. Montana State normally shoots well, but there’s a big difference in going from facing your typical team out of the Big Sky to the one the Bobcats will face here. 

Though Montana State was regular season and conference tournament champs out of the Big Sky, this is their first NCAA Tourney appearance since 1996. Texas Tech, who made the Big 12 Final against Kansas, is a regular in this event. They played for the National Championship, under Chris Beard, in 2019.

The Red Raiders beat every single Big 12 team at least once this year and had two wins over Baylor, a 1-seed.  They are also 8-1 ATS off their last nine straight up losses.

Montana State simply will not be able to shoot the three as well as they normally do here. Lay the points.

There have been only five years where a 12-seed has never beaten a 5 in the NCAA Tournament. I’d be shocked if it didn’t happen in this Tournament, so why not take the points here with New Mexico State, a team that is 26-6 on the year?

The Aggies have been to the NCAA Tournament before. They made it three straight years from 2017-19. Incredibly, they have lost 11 consecutive first round games, going back to the mid-90s. Eventually, a team is due. This team is better than most previous editions. 

UConn has not been good at covering games. They are only 3-11 ATS in their previous 14. During that time, they have only four wins by more than seven points. The Huskies have also not won a NCAA Tourney game since 2016.

New Mexico State has wins over Davidson, Washington State, Cal Irvine and UTEP. So I don’t expect them to be intimidated at all. Their record as an underdog is a perfect 4-0 against the spread.

I have to take the points here in what should be a close matchup throughout.

Providence is much maligned as a four seed as they won a lot of close games and thus probably are not as good as their overall record. But the Friars are being WAY undervalued for their first round matchup vs. 13-seed South Dakota State, a team that plays little in the way of defense.

The underdog Jackrabbits rank 223rd in the country in defensive efficiency. That is second worst among ALL tournament teams.

Not that a team needs any added motivation to win in March Madness, but the way Providence exited the Big East Tournament - an 85-58 loss to Creighton - should have them ready to go here. 

This is tied for the shortest spread ever in a 4 vs. 13 matchup. The Friars will take it as a sign of disrespect.

While South Dakota State has not lost a game since Dec 15, the conference that they play in (Summit) is weak. The Jackrabbits live and die by the three, so thankfully Providence can hang its hat on the fact they are allowing just 31.2 percent shooting from long range. Lay the short number.

Davidson, win or lose today, is probably safe when it comes to making the NCAA Tournament. However, that doesn’t mean the A-10 regular season champs and top seed won’t be motivated to defeat Richmond on Sunday. I’m laying the points as fatigue is probably going to be a factor for the underdog here.

Richmond will be playing its fourth game in as many days. Going back to Thursday, the Spiders rallied back from a 14-point halftime deficit to get past Rhode Island. Since then, they’ve upset the #3 (VCU) and #2 (Dayton) in this tournament. It’s a big ask for them to now take out Davidson, who has been the best team in the conference this season.

Davidson has only had to win two games to get here and wasn’t really challenged in either. The Wildcats were 18-point winners over Fordham in the quarterfinal round, then 15-point winners over St. Louis in the semis. In both games, they jumped out to big leads by halftime and never looked back.

Richmond was again down at the half in yesterday’s game vs. Dayton. In fact, they were down as many as 14 in the second half, with just over 13 minutes remaining. The Spiders did not take the lead for good until less than two minutes remained.

Davidson is the better team and has had the easier path to get here. They won at Richmond, 87-84, in the only regular season matchup. I believe Richmond’s defense will crack here against a Davidson offense that is Top 10 in the country in offensive efficiency. 

Creighton turned in an incredible performance yesterday in its semifinal win over Providence. They won 85-58. It was the largest loss for a #1 seed in Big East Tournament history. Providence couldn’t make anything, going 3 of 24 from three and shooting just 30% overall.

I think it’s important to note that Providence seemed to be overrated and to remember that - with no starters back from last year’s Sweet 16 team - Creighton was picked to finish eighth in the Big East this year. Thanks to yesterday, their 9th win in the last 11 games, the Bluejays are all but assured of making the NCAA Tournament.

Thus, the motivation may not be there on Saturday against Villanova, a supremely talented team that is the best in the Big East. ‘Nova beat UConn Friday, 63-60, avenging its last loss. Speaking of avenging losses, that’s precisely what the Wildcats did against Creighton the last time the teams met. After Creighton took the first meeting, ‘Nova bounced back with a 34-point win on January 5th.

Villanova is simply the much better team at the offensive end, where it ranks 8th nationally in efficiency. 

Creighton is 0-3 all-time in Big East Tournament Finals. They can’t possibly play any better than they did yesterday nor can they count on Villanova shooting as poorly as Providence did. As for the Wildcats, they managed to still win last night despite not making a single field goal in the final five minutes. The favorite doesn’t turn it over and is one of the best free throw shooting teams in NCAA history.

The big shocker in the SEC yesterday was Texas A&M upsetting top seed Auburn, 67-62. The Aggies, as 9-point underdogs, led most of the way and were up by as many as 20! That win greatly improved their NCAA Tournament chances, though another win today may be needed.

Arkansas is in the NCAA Tournament, no matter what, but winning the SEC Championship would be nice. It was an impressive 79-67 win for the Hogs over LSU on Friday, improving their record to 15-2 SU since Jan 8. They have also gone 14-2-1 ATS in that same stretch. 

Both regular season meetings between A&M and Arkansas were closely contested. Each team won at home, A&M by five and Arkansas by three. I just don’t think A&M is capable of playing any better than it did yesterday when it made 50% from three at the same time Auburn shot just 30% overall. 

The Razorbacks are pretty clearly the better team here and A&M is playing its third game in three days. One of those games saw the Aggies go to overtime. So their tank could be close to empty by the second half today. Arkansas built itself a nice double digit lead in the second half yesterday and thus fatigue should not be a factor at all for them. Lay the points.

I don’t think you can undersell the importance of the rest advantage here for Wisconsin, in a tough tournament like the Big 10. Michigan State played last night and was taken down to the wire by Maryland, grinding out a 76-72 win.

It shouldn’t have ended up that close for Sparty, who had a 20-point lead over the Terps. Don’t look for MSU to shoot as well here as they did last night when they made 50% overall and 47.4% from three.

Wisconsin should be very eager to take the court tonight after they shockingly lost the home finale, to Nebraska, as 13-point favorites. The Badgers basically trailed the entire way in that game against the last place team in the Big 10. 

But at no point this season have the Badgers lost two in a row. They have won a lot of close games. But looking at the number, the possibility of a SU win/ATS loss here is very minimal.

Michigan State has lost 7 of its last 11 games.

Nicholls State is the top seed here in the Southland Tournament and received a double-bye into today’s semifinals. They face Texas A&M-CC, who defeated Houston Baptist by a score of 75-60 yesterday. Texas A&M-CC covered the 5.5-point spot in that game.

Texas A&M-CC has won five of its last six games. But the one loss did come to Nicholls, 86-75 at home. They were swept in the season series, also losing at Nicholls by three. Nicholls has now won the last four head to head meetings and six of the last seven.

Going back to January 27th, Nicholls has lost only two games, both to SE Louisiana, who they very well could end up seeing in tomorrow’s final. The Colonels come in averaging 79.6 points per game, tied for 15th in the country, and have exceeded 80 points in seven consecutive games.

In the two regular season games vs. Texas A&M-CC, Nicholls scored 83 and 86 points.

The Colonels are the best team in the Southland and I just can’t see them being upset here. Not with a rest advantage. Lay the short number.

Northern Colorado faces Eastern Washington in the 3-6 matchup of the Big Sky Tournament. Eastern Washington played yesterday, beating Northern Arizona 78-75. Northern Colorado had a bye, so they have a distinct advantage that is seemingly not being accounted for (enough) by the oddsmakers.

Eastern Washington has won its last three games, but two of those were against Northern Arizona, who finished last in the Big Sky. Last night’s first round matchup saw the need for a late 9-0 run to take the lead. I just don’t think the Eagles will have much left in the tank for tonight.

Northern Colorado has been off since Saturday’s two point loss at Montana State. A sour taste in their mouth (from losing the last regular season game) will have the Bears highly motivated coming into this one.

Each team won on the other’s court this year, so it was a split of the two regular season meetings. Northern Colorado was a two-point favorite on the road and six point favorite at home, so I feel we are getting a discount (for whatever reason) here.

Northern Colorado has not dropped back to back games in over a month, a stretch of 11 games. I’ll roll with them.

Long Beach State won the Big West this year with a 12-3 conference record. They finished 18-11 overall. Despite this, the Beach is just a short favorite for its quarterfinal game against a Cal State Bakersfield team that won just two conference games all season! What? 

CS-Bakersfield also had to win a game to get here. They advanced out of the first round by defeating Cal State Northridge on Tuesday, 58-45 as a six-point favorite. Even with the day in between games, I don’t see the Roadrunners having much of a chance today. They lost by nine at LBSU in the lone regular season matchup.

LBSU has lost only two games in the previous two months. While they are a bit of a shaky #1 seed, they are clearly better than the #9 seed in this tournament. 

Coming into the Big West Tournament, CS-Bakersfield had just one win in its last 13 games! They are 6-16 ATS in lined games this season!

Just can’t make sense of this number from the oddsmakers; the top seed is being “disrespected” and I’ll play accordingly.

Only one NCAA Tournament berth will be handed out today and it goes to the winner of the Patriot League Final between Navy and Colgate. These are the top two seeds, but Colgate has pretty clearly been the class of the league throughout the season. On their home floor, I expect the Raiders to win comfortably and move on.

The respective paths these teams took to get to this Final illustrates the gap that exists between them. Colgate has rolled over Bucknell (96-68) and Lehigh (91-61) while Navy squeaked by American U (71-64) and needed overtime to beat Boston U (85-80). 

This game is being played in Colgate’s gym where they are 14-1 SU this season and 38-4 SU the last three seasons. So it’s a really big deal. When at home, the Raiders are outscoring their opponents by almost 17 points per game.

Colgate swept the two regular season meetings vs. Navy. At home, they won by only five. But they won the game in Annapolis by 19. 

It’s 14 straight wins for Colgate coming into tonight. Only one has been by less than seven points.

It’s going to be a “tough mountain” to climb for LaSalle and St. Joe’s, who have to play in the opening round of the Atlantic 10 Tourney. Both face the prospect of having to win five times in five days just to make the NCAA Tournament. That’s not going to happen, but one team will win today and I think that’s going to be the short favorite.

Consider that St. Joe’s is playing with double revenge. Yes, they lost twice to LaSalle in the regular season. The more recent loss came exactly a week ago, on the road and by a single point. At the time, that was the Hawks’ seventh straight defeat, but five of them were by six points or less and three by two points or less.

Thankfully, the regular season ended on a positive note with St. Joe’s defeating Rhode Island 70-60. With the losing streak now over, they can concentrate on exacting some revenge.

LaSalle has won three in a row, which is very rare as it is tied for their longest win streak of the year. Two of those three wins have been by two points or less. The Explorers were just 2-13 in A-10 games. I think this is a wonderful time to fade them, especially at this price. St. Joe’s is the better team here and I find it hard to believe anybody could lose to LaSalle three times in the same season. 

UTSA and Southern Miss face a tough path in the Conference USA Tournament. Both face the task of having to win five times this week. That’s not going to happen for either team. But I do really like UTSA to win this first round game.

The Roadrunners aren’t particularly great, but they did win their last game (82-71 over Rice) and are facing an opponent that hasn’t won in nearly two months. The last time Southern Miss did win (1/19), it was against a non-DI foe. The last time the Golden Eagles defeated a Division I opponent was Jan 6 - UTSA. It was a one-point victory, 74-73.

UTSA avenged that loss with a 19-point win at Hattiesburg one month later. They are now 4-1 SU/ATS vs. Southern Miss the previous three seasons. 

Southern Miss is very bad. They are 6-25 overall and 1-17 in conference play. The average loss came by nearly 15 PPG when facing a team from C-USA. During their current 12-game losing streak, 10 losses have come by double digits.

This is a steal having to lay so few points against Southern Miss. UTSA has already proven that they can blow this team out. They will again.

The bottom six take part in the first round of the ACC Tournament. Here, it’s the #11 seed Louisville taking on #14 Georgia Tech. The teams met once in the regular season. Louisville won 67-64 as a three-point favorite.

Since that win, the bottom dropped out of Louisville's season. They fired head coach Chris Mack and ended the regular season on a poor 4-13 ATS run. They won just two of those games straight up.

So I’m siding with the Yellow Jackets here. They’ve got a bit more momentum, having covered five of the last six games and beating Boston College in the regular season finale.

Playing for a lame-duck interim coach is no way to enter a conference tournament. That’s the reality for Louisville right now. 

The Cardinals shoot just 28% from three away from home and average 63.9 points. They’ve also turned the ball over 54 times in the last four games and allowed opponents to shoot a ridiculous percentage from three in the last three games. 

Despite being regular season champs in the Horizon League, Cleveland State isn’t getting much respect in this semifinal matchup with 4-seed Wright State. The quarterfinals of this tournament saw all top four seeds win in the quarterfinals after they each received a first round bye.

The top-seeded Vikings are 20-9 on the year. They ousted Robert Morris 83-67 in the quarterfinals, a game in which they had the home court advantage. Tonight’s game takes place in Indianapolis, a neutral setting. The Vikings actually haven’t played a neutral court game all season.

Thursday’s win against Robert Morris was marred by issues with the scoreboard, but CSU got 25 points from Torrey Patton, which matched a season-high. The Vikings shot well (54.2%) and defended the three-point line better than RMU. They forced 20 turnovers.

Wright State found itself down eight at the half against Oakland in its quarterfinal matchup. They too got to play at home. It was a 20-0 run that turned the tide. The Raiders are 0-3 ATS in neutral site games this year though and are unlikely to go on a run like that against a better team like Cleveland State.

Cleveland State won both regular season meetings, 85-75 at home and 71-67 away. They are the better team here and won the Horizon League Tourney last season. I see no reason why they won’t defeat Wright State again. 

This is an important game for Memphis, despite having won three in a row. The Tigers are firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble and can still earn the second seed for next week’s American Conference Tournament.

They are also looking to make it a season sweep over Houston. That would be quite the accomplishment. Back on February 12th, the Tigers ended the Cougars’ 37-game home win streak with a 69-59 victory. That was a season-low in points for Houston and they committed a season-high 19 turnovers. 

Memphis has won 9 of its last 10 overall, the one loss coming at SMU. They’ve also covered five straight times against Houston.

I really like the spot for the short home underdog here. Houston is playing its fourth game in eight days (“tough” says coach Kelvin Sampson) and is lacking depth because of injuries. Considering that the Cougars have already locked up the regular season title, they may not be treating this game all that seriously.

Memphis has covered 11 of the past 13 times it has been an underdog. Grab the points.

UNLV played New Mexico in January and won 85-56. The Runnin’ Rebels don’t need to win by even half that margin tonight in Albuquerque. I’ll lay the points.

UNLV already knows it will be 5th in the Conference Tournament. That means they avoid playing in the first round. But they will face Wyoming in the quarterfinals. They just beat the Cowboys by seven on Wednesday.

New Mexico will be the nine seed, so they are in the first round and matched up with Nevada. The Lobos have lost four of five and just fell at Fresno State earlier in the week. They did at least cover the spread as 10-point underdogs.

UNLV has won the last seven head to head meetings. I say you can make it eight after tonight.

The Rebels have lost only one game that they have been favored in all season. This number is short. Lay it.

Bryant is the #1 seed in the NEC Tournament, having earned that distinction by defeating Wagner in the final regular season game. They won their quarterfinal game pretty handily, though not by as much as the oddsmakers expected. It was a 73-59 win over Central Connecticut State on Wednesday.

Mount St. Mary’s is the 4-seed and beat St. Francis 78-48 to get here. That was a very impressive win for last year’s NEC Tourney champs as they were only seven-point favorites. 

Still, with Bryant having homecourt advantage for this one, the line looks low. Mount St. Mary’s has a 14-15 straight up record on the year and is 0-2 against Bryant, although one of the games was decided by just a single point.

The key though is Bryant’s 12-1 home record. This is a team that has lost just one time since Jan 6th. The Bulldogs are averaging 82.4 points in conference play while giving up just 73.3. 

MSM played a great game Wednesday, but had lost five of seven before that and only averages 61.7 PPG on the road. Lay the points.

Middle Tennessee and Old Dominion wrap up their regular seasons in Norfolk this afternoon. Both know where they’ll be seeded in the Conference USA Tournament. MTSU won the East Division and thus will get a bye into the quarterfinals. ODU finished fifth in the East and will be playing UTEP in a second round matchup.

With nothing really on the line here, you may be wondering why we’re playing this matchup. Well, Middle Tennessee has quietly had a VERY good year. The Blue Raiders are not just 22-8 straight up, but 21-6 against the spread. They are clearly the top threat to West Division Champ North Texas, who is the favorite heading into the C-USA Tournament.

The Blue Raiders beat Old Dominion by 15 when they hosted in Murfreesboro last month. It wasn’t a good shooting night for them, but they played great defense and limited the Monarchs to just 48 points and two made three-pointers.

MTSU is also coming off a rare loss, which is why I’m on them here. They fell 60-56 in Charlotte on Wednesday. Before that, the Blue Raiders had won eight in a row straight up and covered seven straight games.

ODU is just 3-6 SU in its last nine games and is pretty outclassed here. Not sure why they’re favored.

South Alabama is seeded fifth, but the Jaguars just might be the best team in the Sun Belt. They absolutely could make a run in this tournament. It starts on Thursday when they play a first round matchup against last place Little Rock. Expect this one to be a blowout.

Little Rock obviously did not have a good year. The Trojans finished 8-18 overall and 3-13 in conference play. They were even worse than the oddsmakers though, evident by a lousy 5-16 ATS record as an underdog. On the road, they were beaten by an average of 16.3 points per game.

The regular season ended very poorly for Little Rock. They’ve lost four in a row and 9 of 10. Eight of those nine losses were by double digits. Six were by at least 15 points.

These teams met once in the regular season. South Alabama won 77-46 as a 14.5 point favorite. Down 17 at halftime, Little Rock was never competitive. 

USA won its regular season finale, beating UT Arlington 62-52 last Friday. Look for them to make a statement in the opening game of this tourney. 

Miami is currently on the right side of the bubble, but they need a strong final week of the regular season. The Hurricanes have lost two of their last three games, both losses at home, to fall into fourth place in the ACC. 

Tonight looks like a great chance to get back on track as the Canes travel to face Boston College. Note that they have won three in a row on the road. The last road win was by 21 at Pittsburgh, a team who has a comparable record to BC. 

Miami has too much offense for their hosts today. The visitors are 19th in adjusted offensive efficiency and seventh best in turnover rate. They average 74.7 points per game. 

BC has lost six of eight and just went down by 10 to Clemson here at home on Saturday. It was the Eagles’ seventh loss by double digits since Jan 19th.

Miami has been good on the road. They are 8-2 straight up and against the spread. So lay the small number.

This is a first round matchup in the Patriot League Tournament where all games are played at campus sites (higher seed always gets to host). Both American U and Holy Cross finished with the same overall record (9-21 SU), but the latter did better in conference play, finishing 7-11 as opposed to 5-13 for the former.

Playing at home is key here for Holy Cross, even though they last won here on February 9th. It’s just a small number we have to lay and the Crusaders have double revenge. That’s right. Two of American’s five league wins came against HC.

I just can’t see the underdog sweeping the season series. Holy Cross averaged just 51.5 points per game in the two regular season losses. I expect much better from them offensively here tonight. 

American U won its final regular season game, beating Loyola MD 65-55. However, the Eagles have failed to win back to back games going all the way back to mid-December. I just think the odds are against them winning here.

For what it’s worth, Holy Cross has covered the spread in 14 of its last 17 games played on Tuesday.

Providence has already wrapped up the Big East, the first time it has EVER won the conference outright. But there is still a sense of motivation for this one as they look to avoid a season sweep against Villanova.

I think that most would agree that ‘Nova is in fact the better team here. The “analytics” don’t love Providence, mostly because of all the close wins the Friars have. But that has led to them getting a lot of points tonight. It’s too many. We’ll take a close loss! 

To be clear, Providence is 24-3 this year. They lost the first meeting with Villanova by just five points. They are not just 7-1 ATS as an underdog, but also 7-1 straight up! This is a lot of points for the #8 ranked team in the country to be getting. 

Though it’s their final home game and they haven’t played in a week, ‘Nova doesn’t have much motivation here. At least not to win by a double digit margin. They lost to UConn by two last Tuesday.

Three of the previous four meetings have been decided by five points or less. So take the points.

Hofstra seems locked into third place in the CAA and very well could be taking on tonight’s opponent, Charleston, in the first round of the Conference Tournament. So there’s really nothing on the line in this Monday matchup. But, in their final home game, I look for the Pride to turn in a solid effort to end the regular season.

Charleston has been competitive of late, covering the number in four straight games. But they lost Saturday, 80-79 at Drexel, to fall a game below .500 this year in conference play. Tonight will mark the Cougars’ fourth consecutive game on the road. That’s a tough way to end the regular season and the team may very well be “out of gas.”

As for Hofstra, this is their fourth straight time playing at home. They had no problem dispatching William & Mary on Saturday, winning that game 83-67. That followed a shocking 81-55 loss to Elon. The Pride have failed to cover the number three straight times, but were also double digit favorites in all those games.

This is a solid value, I believe, on Hofstra at home. They are 11-2 SU in home games this season. Also, they defeated Charleston on the road, back in late January. 

Key to this one is that Charleston is a poor defensive team that has given up an average of 82 points over its last four games. Hofstra has scored 76 or more in five of its last six. Lay the points.

DePaul and St. John’s both find themselves in the bottom half of the Big East standings. Both are also coming off a game that was decided by three points. The difference is that St. John’s lost on Wednesday, 81-78 to Creighton, while DePaul was a 68-65 winner over Georgetown on Thursday.

The win for DePaul was their first since February 9th, also against Georgetown. In between the two wins over the Hoyas, the Blue Demons dropped four straight. But three of those losses were by three points or less, so they easily could have had a better record this month. They were up 19 in the second half against Providence and lost that game in overtime.

St. John’s blew a seven-point halftime lead to Creighton and lost for the third time in the last five games. The biggest problem facing the Red Storm is that they don’t play much defense, especially on the road where they are giving up 78.5 points/game.

The Johnnies did beat DePaul 89-84 at home last month. But they’ve been far too inconsistent to expect a season sweep. 

DePaul averages 76.5 points at home and is 3-0 ATS this season off a Big East win.

Illinois (19-8 overall, 12-5 Big 10) is coming off an 86-83 home loss to Ohio State on Thursday, which knocked the Fighting Illini a game back of conference leaders Wisconsin and Purdue. I like them to bounce back here on Sunday,

We know that Michigan is without coach Juwan Howard, who is suspended for five games due to the post-game fight with Wisconsin. The Wolverines did show some resolve by going out and beating Rutgers 71-62 on Wednesday, here in Ann Arbor. Michigan is now 8-4 in its last 12 games and their NCAA Tournament prospects are looking a lot better.

But I simply think that the Illini are the better team here. They won the season’s first meeting, 68-53 as a 9.5-point favorite. They are 4-0 straight up and against the spread in the last four games against Michigan.

Michigan has been far more inconsistent this year. They are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win. They are just 15-11 straight up this year and rate lower than Illinois in both offensive and defensive efficiency. 

Illinois is 4-0 straight up and against the spread in its last four games as a road favorite of three points or less. 

Rice has a wonderful opportunity to win big in its last home game of the season. The Owls are hosting Southern Miss, who is Conference USA’s worst team. The visitors are 6-22 overall this season, 1-14 in conference play. Their last win over a Division I opponent was back on January 6th, by a single point.

Two of Southern Miss’ four wins over DI teams this year have been by a single point. So it’s been a bleak year in Hattiesburg. The Golden Eagles have lost 11 in a row and 10 of those losses have been by double digits.

Rice has lost four straight and five of six, but the last two games were decided by a total of six points. There should be ample motivation to give the seniors one final big win at home tonight. Back on January 29th, the Owls beat Southern Miss by 14 on the road.

Rice scored 52 points in the second half Thursday. They are averaging 77.9 points at home. Southern Miss averages just over 60 PPG on the road.

Lastly, Rice is a perfect 6-0 against the spread the last three seasons when playing at home and the total is between 145 and 149.5.

Oakland has faded a bit in the Horizon League title chance, losing three straight to fall to 11-7 in conference play and 18-11 overall. That’s three games back of current leader Cleveland State, whom the Golden Grizzlies will play host to this afternoon. I like them to get the job done here. 

Going back to January 20th, Oakland is just 1-10 against the spread. They have been the favorite for all of those games, except one, a 75-64 loss at Wright State. Their three straight losses have all been here at home, which is shocking as the Golden Grizzlies had previously not lost a home game all season. 

Cleveland State is also coming off a loss, 74-67 at Detroit. This will be the Vikings’ fifth consecutive road game to end the regular season. Meanwhile, it’s the final home game (Senior Night) for Oakland.

While Cleveland State is looking to wrap up the regular season championship, Oakland is desperate to build some momentum for the upcoming Conference Tournament. They defeated Cleveland State, 70-65, as a 1-point road underdog earlier in the season.

I can’t see Oakland losing again at home as CSU should be pretty spent, having played so many road games in a row.

There are four ranked teams in the Big 12 (Kansas, Baylor, Texas Tech, Texas) that are the class of the conference. After that, there’s a bit of a drop. Neither Oklahoma State and Oklahoma have had much reason to celebrate lately, as the former is 3-7 its last 10 games and the latter is 2-11 its last 13 games. But someone will have to prevail in “Bedlam” on Saturday.

When these teams met on ⅖, the Cowboys prevailed 64-55 in Stillwater. But now the Sooners get the game in Norman with a shot at revenge. OU is off back to back 20+ point losses as well. So they are really desperate here.

OSU lost by two at home to Baylor on Monday. The game went to overtime. I had the Cowboys, plus the points, so at the end of the day, I was happy. But OSU has to be a bit deflated, especially with that being their fifth OT game this season.

The Cowboys are also banned from postseason play, so you’ve got to question their level of motivation down the stretch. Off an ATS win, they are 2-7 ATS this season. They last covered two straight games in November.

The revenge angle and home court advantage should propel Oklahoma to a win Saturday. They’ve lost four in a row to their rivals. They won’t lose again. Lay the short number. 

Elsewhere, I’ve got a play on the top MAAC team against the bottom MAAC team. Here, we venture to the middle of the conference standings for a game between Manhattan and Marist. I think the value resides with the dog in this one as they won the first meeting.

It was 72-66 in favor of Manhattan, back on Jan 30th, when these teams first met. The Jaspers proceeded to lose their next four games, but now have won three straight and can pass Marist for fifth place in the conference. Why is that important? Because the top five teams get first round byes in the conference tournament.

After losing five in a row, Marist has now won five in a row. Two of those wins were by just a point though and they were against Qunnipiac and Canisius, who are at the bottom of the league. In another recent win (last Friday vs. Siena), the Red Foxes were down seven at the half.

Not only is Marist just 1-8 against the spread in its last nine tries as a favorite, but the team that has been the underdog has covered four of the last five meetings in this MAAC rivalry. Take the points.

This is a mismatch, an even bigger one than what the line suggests. Iona leads the MAAC with a 14-2 conference record. They are 11-0 at home, winning by 12.5 points per game. Tonight they can wrap up the regular season title simply by defeating last place Canisius. Look for this to be a blowout.

Iona won the first meeting by eight. But the 70-62 final was a little misleading in the sense that the Gaels were up 19 at the half. It was 35-12 just 15 minutes into the game. 

Canisius hasn’t won on the road all year. They are 0-14 away from home as they are shooting just 38.2 percent from the field.

In their last game, the Golden Griffins scored just 54 points in a home loss to Niagara. That was their seventh loss in the last eight games.

Iona ran out to an 18-point victory over Fairfield their last time on the court. That was here at home on Sunday. They used a big second half to cover the 11-point spread. I just can’t see this being a close game. Lay the points.

I like Northwestern here in a battle of two of the five Big 10 teams that aren’t projected to make the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats picked up a win earlier this week, at home, 77-65 over Nebraska. Now they look to avenge a four-point home loss where they were eight-point favorites.

That first meeting was a little odd. Penn State won because they controlled the glass (40-28 edge in rebounds) and made more free throws (15) than Northwestern even attempted (nine). 

The Nittany Lions are 308th in the country in points per game, so unless they can replicate those edges in rebounding and free throw shooting, I don’t see them outscoring Northwestern tonight.

PSU lost on Monday, 67-61 at Maryland, and you may remember that I took the Terps in that game. The Nittany Lions lost even though Maryland did not make a basket over the game’s final 6:20. Bad sign. 

Northwestern has covered all four times this season when matched up against an opponent with a losing record.

The race for the regular season title in the SoCon (Southern Conference) is down to two teams: Chattanooga and Furman. Chattanooga is seemingly in the driver's seat, not just with a one-game lead, but they also swept the season series against Furman.

But, after beating Furman for a second time this year, the Mocs have lost two straight: 73-70 to UNC Greensboro and 80-75 to VMI. Even more embarrassing is that both losses came at home. Tonight though, the Mocs can clinch the regular season title, simply by winning at East Tennessee State. 

When these in-state rivals met on New Year’s Eve, it was all Chattanooga in an 82-52 beatdown. East Tennessee State has not had a good season as they come into the rematch having lost seven of their last nine games. Many of those losses were close, but I just can’t see them winning here against a hungry and better opponent.

Chattanooga is a very impressive 21-5-1 ATS its last 27 games against teams that have a losing record. East Tennessee State is 14-15 overall on the year (straight up). 

This is only the second time this season that Chattanooga has lost back to back games. The first instance saw them rebound with a double digit victory. That is what I expect here. Lay the points.

Two rivals trying to break from the middle of the Mountain West pack meet Tuesday night in Reno as Nevada hosts UNLV. The home side has won three in a row, though two of those wins came against last place San Jose State. The visiting team has won three of four and five of its last seven, which includes a win over Nevada , 69-58 down in Sin City.

The Runnin’ Rebels are 4-0 ATS in the last four games and coming off wins over Fresno State and Colorado State. Beating Colorado State by 21 on Saturday was very impressive. The Rebels have gotten 10 straight games of 17+ points from leading scorer Hamilton and the only time they’ve been beaten in the last four games, it came down to the final minute in Bose.

But Nevada is out for revenge Tuesday night and should benefit from the fact they have not played a game since Thursday (when they obliterated San Jose State by 30). 

The Wolf Pack have won and covered the last three times they’ve hosted UNLV. They shot very poorly in the game at Vegas earlier this year, including 3 of 17 from three. They come into this game shooting 53.7% overall over the last five games. 

I mentioned earlier that UNLV is off a 21-point over Colorado State. Fortunately for us, the Rebels are just 1-5 ATS the previous six times they have been off a straight up win by 20 or more points. 

Heading into February, Miami was viewed as a legit contender in the ACC. But they’re just 3-3 overall this month and thus falling back to the rest of the pack. Looking at their remaining games, the Hurricanes do have a pretty “easy” schedule and still trail Duke by just two games. Winning tonight at Pittsburgh is a must and I think they get the job done.

Pitt had won three in a row, but then lost to Ga Tech 68-62 on Saturday. They were two-point favorites. Even with the recent surge, the Panthers are just 6-11 in ACC games and closer to the bottom then they are to the middle of the pack. 

Miami is 7-2 on the road this year, straight up and against the spread, so I am not worried about laying a short number here. Pittsburgh is averaging only 62.5 points per game, which is 343rd in the country. 

I think most would be looking at the Hurricanes a lot more favorably here, had they not wilted in the second half against Virginia on Saturday. The Canes were up by eight at the half in that game, but surrendered a 23-4 second half run and never really recovered. The final score was 74-71. 

The last five games Miami has allowed a shooting percentage of 50.6. I just don’t see Pitt coming anywhere close to that. 

#7 Baylor heads to Stillwater tonight to face Oklahoma State. This is Ok State’s second straight week playing on “Big Monday” (ESPN). The Cowboys certainly are hoping this week goes better than last when they lost to Kansas 76-62 as a 10.5-point dog. I believe it will!

The obvious difference between this week and last is that OSU is playing at home. They have a much better record in Stillwater (9-5 SU), which is where they just defeated Kansas State on Saturday, 82-79. Though it ended up going into overtime, the Cowboys led most of that game.

Now Baylor is clearly much better than Kansas State. But the Bears have struggled a bit on their travels recently, dropping three of their last four road games. 

You could argue that all three teams Baylor lost to on the road are better than Ok State. I won’t disagree with you on that. But Ok State also already holds a win over Baylor this year, having gone to Waco and come out ahead 61-54 as 14-point road underdogs. They held the Bears to 31% shooting for the game. It was Baylor’s second straight loss at the time.

Baylor is just 2-5 ATS its last seven games overall. They are playing short-handed right now with a couple of players injured. A lack of depth will catch up with them on the road. Take the points.

Loyola MD has lost four straight and six of seven. But most of those losses have been close. Three of them were by four points or less. So the recent record could be alot better for the Greyhounds. I like them today, at home, as they look to sweep the season series from Lehigh. 

A win today would pull Loyola even with Lehigh for fourth place in the Patriot League. Obviously, based on head to head results, they’d have the tiebreak. A loss would drop the Greyhounds and have them in danger of having to play a first round game in the Conference Tournament. They obviously want to avoid that.

Lehigh is off a win, 86-77 over Bucknell, but before that had lost four of five. The road has been unkind this year to the Mountain Hawks as they are 3-10 SU away. The last road win for them was just over a month ago.

Loyola won the first meeting 69-57 and was a two-point favorite. Looking at the line here and comparing it to the first meeting, it seems like we’re getting a pretty great value.

This is a huge game for the home team. I really like them in this spot.

This is the ultimate buy low spot on Oregon, who just suffered a terrible loss at Arizona State on Thursday. Despite being favored by five points, the Ducks ended up losing the game 81-57. It was their worst loss of the season and a costly one for their NCAA Tournament prospects.

Few will give Oregon a shot tonight playing at Arizona. It’s not just the bad loss on Thursday. Arizona is ranked #3 in the country.

But, like I said, it’s time to buy low on Oregon. Expect them to come out with a flurry. Last Saturday, Arizona found itself down 14 early to Washington before being able to come back. It was another slow start in Thursday’s win over Oregon State. The Wildcats, talented as they are, can’t just keep starting slow and blowing teams out in the second half. It’s unsustainable.

Oregon was the #13 team in the country in the preseason poll and has beaten Arizona seven consecutive times. This is the first time they’ve been a double digit dog this season. The most points they’ve gotten previously, in any game, was +9.5 at UCLA. The Ducks ended up winning that game 84-81. 

This is a great time to take the points.

I’ve been VERY impressed with what Murray State is doing. The Racers have gotten themselves into the Top 25 by winning 15 in a row and can now probably count on being an at-large team in the NCAA Tournament if they fail to win the Ohio Valley Tournament next month.

Only two other teams in America, besides Murray State, don’t have a conference loss. They are Gonzaga and South Dakota State.

In their last game, the Racers blew past Austin Peay for a 91-56 win and cover. From the opening tip, there was little doubt they’d cover the 18.5-point spread. I expect a similar win here today against Tenn-Martin.

This is a tough one for Tenn-Martin, who just hosted Morehead State, who is another of the Ohio Valley’s better teams. The Skyhawks did cover that game, as nine-point dogs, but barely - they lost 68-60 and that was despite having the halftime lead. Tenn-Martin has now dropped four straight games.

The first meeting between these teams was actually rather close. Murray State won by only eight, despite being 22 point favorites at home. But that was early enough in the season that Tenn-Martin still had hope. At this point, they know they cannot compete with a nationally ranked team and I expect that to show Saturday afternoon.

#2 Auburn is back in action Saturday, looking to continue its outstanding form in the SEC this season. The Tigers are 12-1 in conference play so far and winning by an average of 10.4 points per game. Very impressive.

After double digit wins at home over Texas A&M and Vanderbilt, the Tigers will now head to Gainesville to face Florida. The Gators are not in peak form right now. Not only have they failed to cover the spread in five straight games, they’ve lost the last two on the scoreboard as well.

Those losses were both on the road, one by a single point (to Texas A&M) and the other to Kentucky. But if you’re expecting this team to step up as a home dog, better think again. Florida is 0-6 ATS the past six times it has been a home underdog of 3.5 to 6 points.

The Gators also have just one “Quad 1” win on the year. They lost the first meeting, at Auburn, by a score of 85-73. They didn’t cover as 7.5 point underdogs.

The bottom line is that I just don’t think the home team is good enough to “hang around” the #2 ranked team in the country for 40 minutes. Lay the points

It is very clear that Syracuse is an entirely different team when playing at the Carrier Dome. 

The Orange are 9-3 here and averaging 86.3 points. That scoring average is up from their overall average of 77.3 for the season. They are shooting 51.4% from the field in home games, which includes an incredible 42.5% from three.

So I have zero hesitation in laying the points here against BC, who is 1-10 away from home. The Eagles have won just four ACC games this season and come into today on a four-game losing streak.

One of those four losses came at home to Syracuse, 73-64. Given the ‘Cuse shot just 39.3% that day and how they shoot at home, this figures to be a long afternoon for Boston College at the defensive end. 

I like the way the schedule breaks for Syracuse as well. They’d won four in a row before running into Va Tech last Saturday. The Orange have had a week to recover from their 71-59 loss in Blacksburg. Meanwhile, BC just played at Notre Dame on Wednesday and lost in overtime. Lay the points

It’s been a disappointing season for Maryland (they were once ranked!), but the Terps ought to be favored by more against the worst team in the Big 10. 

The Big 10 is obviously a tough league as it could be putting nine teams in the NCAA Tournament. Of the five unlikely Big Dance participants, four (Penn State, N’western, Maryland, Minnesota) are pretty evenly matched. But then there’s a huge drop with Nebraska.

The Cornhuskers are dead last with a 1-13 Big 10 record. The one win came last week at home vs. Minnesota. But then they got smashed by Iowa on Super Bowl Sunday. That was the fifth time this season that the team suffered a loss by more than 20 points against a conference foe.

Also on Sunday, Maryland had a 12 point lead at Purdue in the second half with 11 minutes left in the game. Unfortunately, they blew all of it and lost 62-61. That was the Terrapins’ second one-possession loss to a ranked team in the last four games. 

I just think the Terps are simply the better team, even if Eric Ayala is out again. They are 16-3 ATS when on a losing streak of three or more games.

Harvard has lost three straight games and finds itself in the bottom half of the Ivy League standings. But tonight is a get well game against Columbia, who as you can tell (from the line) is not good at all.

Columbia is in fact last in the Ivy with a 1-9 conference record. They are 4-18 overall on the year. The Lions’ lone conference win was by four points (over Penn!), all the way back on January 8th. In the last game, they got destroyed, losing to Yale by 25 at home.

The Lions’ current eight-game losing streak actually began with a 91-82 setback at Harvard. The spread for that game was 10 points so Columbia covered. But they also shot a season-high 55% overall from the floor and 48% from three. Those numbers won’t be repeated tonight.

Three of Harvard’s last four defeats have been by four points or less and two were to conference leader Yale. It was an eight-point loss at second place Penn last Saturday. So the Crimson have been facing the Ivy League’s elite recently and coming up short. This drop in class should guarantee a favorable result.

I mentioned earlier that Columbia scored just 59 points in its last game. Well, the last nine times after a game where they scored 60 or less, they are 1-8 ATS. Lay the points.

Chicago State is one of the very worst teams in the country and I don’t think SF Austin will have any problem handling them in this Wednesday night WAC matchup. 

Look no further than what happened last week, in SF Austin’s last game. They crushed Chicago State, on the road, 81-61 as a 12-point favorite. That was the Lumberjacks’ fourth consecutive win and cover.

Chicago State has lost six in a row and they’ve played another game since the 20-point loss to SF Austin. It was a 13-point loss, also at home, to Sam Houston State. The Cougars are now 2-10 in conference play this season. Even worse, they are 2-12 overall on the road. 

SF Austin is two games off the lead in the WAC, so there’s no reason to expect there to be any kind of “letdown” tonight. If anything, it should be a focused effort as the team looks to make its move up the WAC standings. The remaining schedule looks advantageous.

Meanwhile, Chicago State has had less time to get ready for this rematch and they know anything short of a miracle run in the WAC Tournament means their season is over. For all intents and purposes, it already is over. The Cougars are averaging less than 60 points/game on the road. Lay the points.

Wyoming has won six straight and now finds itself ranked in the Top 25 for the first time in seven seasons. With them laying points on the road tonight, it just feels like the right opportunity to fade the Cowboys.

New Mexico is 8-2 ATS and averaging 78.6 points at home this year. “The Pit” is not an easy place to win at. The Lobos should be well prepared for this game. Over the last 10 days, they’ve only played once and it was a blowout over a non-Division I opponent. (They won 78-46). 

Wyoming’s six-game win streak has featured three two-point victories as well as two others by seven or less. Two of the wins went to overtime. The one blowout came on Saturday, at San Jose State, who is the worst team in the Mountain West.

The Cowboys actually have FIVE two-point victories since January 15th. One of them came against New Mexico on 1/22. That game in Laramie ended up being a 93-91 final. New Mexico never trailed by more than 10 points in that game and shot 53.7% from the field.

Wyoming shot 58% in that first meeting, a number they will not match tonight. With so many close wins recently and a national ranking next to their name, I can see the Cowboys being a little overconfident here. I can see an upset taking place. Grab the points.

Back on January 11th, Texas picked up its largest win over Oklahoma in over a decade. They were 66-52 winners in Austin. I think they’re more than capable of simply winning again here in Norman.

It was just last Monday when the Longhorns upset Kansas 79-76. That was also in Austin. Unfortunately, things didn’t go UT’s way on Saturday when they visited Baylor (lost 80-63). But that was a tough spot, facing a second top 10 opponent in less than a week.

Oklahoma has had a similar last seven days. They picked up a big win at home (over Texas Tech) then lost on the road (at Kansas). Their road loss was by just two points, so it was a better showing than what Texas had. But seriously doubt anyone thinks the Sooners are the better team here. 

In fact, OU has lost eight of its last ten games. 

Texas has the #2 scoring defense in the country, holding teams to just 56.8 points per game. I already mentioned how they held Oklahoma to 52 in the first meeting. Since that game, the Sooners have failed to score 60 three other times. I don’t expect many points from the home team tonight. Go with the road team to win and complete the season sweep. 

Let’s check in on the Patriot League where Colgate is in first place with a 10-2 record. The Raiders are just 14-11 overall, but have won six straight and are looking like the class of this conference right now. They are 8-1 at home this season and host Lafayette on Monday. 

Lafayette is off a rare win on Saturday as they went to Lehigh and pulled a 73-69 upset as four-point underdogs. The Leopards are still just 8-15 overall and 5-7 in conference games, however. They already lost to Colgate once this year, 72-61 as 8.5 point home underdogs. 

Colgate has covered the spread in each of the last four games, three times as a double digit favorite. At home, they are putting up an average of 77.1 points per game while allowing just 59.9. 

So this should be a pretty easy game for the favorite.

UTEP saw its six game win streak snapped on Monday. They lost 66-58 to North Texas, who is the best team in Conference USA this year. At least the Miners left with the cash, covering as 10-point underdogs. It was early in the second half when things fell apart.

The Miners should have no concerns today as they are taking on a Marshall team that has been a disaster to bet on all season. The Thundering Herd are, get this, 4-18 against the spread. 

They are 1-10 ATS in conference play, 2-8 ATS as an underdog and 1-9 ATS on the road. 

It’s the first meeting in almost two years for these two schools. UTEP, already the better team, has a nice edge as they’ve been off for the last five days while Marshall was just in action on Thursday, losing by one at home to FIU, a game they were expected to win by six points.

UTEP only gives up 62.4 points per game at home. Marshall is allowing 80.4 on the road. Lay the points in this one.

Providence brings a 20-2 record and #11 ranking into Saturday’s game vs. DePaul. But I get the sense that the Friars are a little overrated. They did end up blowing out Georgetown on Sunday, 71-52, but were trailing at the half. Before that, it was three straight wins by four points or less.

DePaul is near the bottom of the Big East, only ahead of Georgetown, but the Blue Demons are on a win streak. They’ve won two in a row. One was against G’town, but the other was a win at Xavier where they 13.5 point underdogs.

The season’s first meeting between DePaul and Providence was played on New Year’s Day. Providence won 70-53 as DePaul shot just below 30 percent for the game. Interestingly, the Blue Demons were small favorites to win that day.

I like the underdog’s chance at revenge today, or at least covering the spread. Providence is only 7-7 ATS when favored and 0-1 as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points. 

I simply believe that Providence is “living on borrowed time.” As a favorite of this size, which is rare for them, they should be faded.

Auburn suffered just its second loss of the season on Tuesday. It was at Arkansas on Tuesday, 80-76. The top-ranked Tigers were only 1.5 point favorites for the game, so it can be argued that the oddsmakers “saw that coming.”

Prior to the setback, two of Auburn’s last four wins were by two points or fewer. Since January 11th, they have five single digit victories. I know that a return home (where the team is 12-0 this year) has most on “The Plains” thinking about a bounce back, but this is a pretty big number the Tigers are laying. 

Texas A&M will be both desperate and motivated. The Aggies’ last win was all the way back on January 15th. But of the seven consecutive games that they have lost, the final margin has never been larger than 11 points. Four have been by six points or fewer. So they’ve remained competitive, despite adversity.

Surprisingly, A&M has won five of the previous six matchups in the series! They were also 4-0 in SEC play before this seven-game skid. One of the four wins came against the Arkansas team that just beat Auburn.

The Aggies are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a road underdog. Take the points here. 

Utah State looks to bounce back from a tough two-point defeat at Wyoming. They are hosting Nevada, who is in real trouble now after taking a sixth straight loss on Tuesday. I think it’s fair to say that - in the Mountain West - there’s a pretty severe dropoff after the top six teams. Nevada is not in that top six. Utah State is.

Now the Aggies are technically in seventh in the standings, behind UNLV. But not only do I think they are better than the Rebels, USU is better than several teams ahead of them. The KenPom ratings have them as the second best team in the conference, literally right behind Boise State. The Aggies are 31st in those KenPom ratings. So this is a good team.

They’d won five straight, all by double digits, before losing at Wyoming on Tuesday. That game went to overtime, by the way. What’s most interesting about Utah State’s 6-6 conference record is that - like I said - five of the wins have come by double digits. Four of the losses have been decided by three points or less.

Five of Nevada’s six straight losses have come by 10 or more. One of those was to Utah State, 78-49, and that was at home! In Logan, it’s hard to imagine the Wolf Pack playing well. Lay the points.

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Let’s go with one more on tonight’s College Hoops card. Long Beach State (aka “The Beach”) has to leave the mainland for this game at Hawaii. The Beach is on a nine-game winning streak - straight up and against the spread. But Honolulu is a hard place to win.

Hawaii is back home after losing two in a row on the road. Those losses were by five (at UC Riverside) and three points (UC Davis). Prior to that, the Warriors had won seven in a row while covering the spread all but once. That one ATS failure came as a 13-point favorite. 

At home, Hawaii is 4-0 straight up in conference play. Also, earlier in the year they went to Long Beach and won 72-65 as a one-point underdog. That was the Big West opener for both teams.

LBSU hasn’t lost since, so it feels like this is a “collision course” for the two teams here. CS Fullerton is also 7-2 in Big West play, but a Hawaii win here would have them feeling VERY good about capturing the regular season conference crown.

The Beach were down five to CS Fullerton, at halftime, in their last game. They have not had the halftime lead in any game since 1/27 vs. UC Riverside. I just can’t see them covering such a short number at arguably the toughest place to play in the entire Big West.

UCSB, to me, is much better than its 9-9 SU record. The Gauchos’ problem has been a 1-7 record (SU and ATS) on the road where nearly every loss has been close. Their last time on the road, they lost 65-62 to Hawaii, a game where third leading scorer Ajare Sanni left in the second half with an ankle injury.

Sanni hasn’t played since, but I don’t see him listed on the injury report for tonight. His potential would be a big boon for a team that actually leads the Big West in scoring margin. UCSB did win big in its last game, beating UC San Diego by a score of 84-48. 

While just 2-5 SU in its last seven games, three of those losses for the Gauchos have been by three points or less. This team has been somewhat unlucky so far. But remember they are the reigning Big West Champs and were projected to finish first again, back in November. 

I think that we’re getting a great number here as Cal State Bakersfield has dropped five in a row. 

UCSB shoots the ball well, right at 48.5% for the season. That’s 18th in Division I! The Gauchos have had a double digit lead in three of their four conference losses and the other one was a one-point loss. Lay the short number with the road team.

Towson may be 1.5 games behind UNC Wilmington, but I think they’re the best team in the CAA. Tonight, the Tigers are massive favorites over William & Mary, deservedly so. W&M is a bottom tier team in the Colonial that has won just two times since the New Year. One of four programs to be eligible for every NCAA Tournament and never make one, W&M is going to see that dubious streak extended this year. 

As for the question of whether or not Towson can cover this large spread, I believe that they can. That may sound strange as the Tigers are coming off an embarrassing loss, 58-53 to Northeastern, who is the last place team in the conference. But if you don’t think that will have the Tigers motivated, then guess again.

The loss to Northeastern, who I believe is better than W&M, saw Towson make just 1 of 15 three-point attempts. Obviously, that is what cost them the game. The loss also occurred out on the road. At home, the Tigers are 8-2 this year, the only losses coming to UNCW and a very good San Francisco team. 

William & Mary has lost its last two games by a combined 45 points. This is not just the worst team in the CAA, but one of the bottom 20 teams in the entire country, in my estimation. The Tribe are 347th in offensive efficiency and 304th in defensive efficiency. This has blowout written all over it.