Nevada won its last game but saw its pointspread winning streak come to an end. The Wolf Pack will now face a far more difficult opponent. The Broncos are 16-101 against the number the past 2 years as underdogs. Nevada is 1-3 ATS its past 4 home games when the total was in the 140 to 144.5 range. The Broncos won by 15 the last time these teams met. The prev. 3 meetings were all decided by 6 or less. The previous 2 meetings, including the last one here, were both decided by only 2 points. This one gets decided at the buzzer once again. Grab the points.

This is simply too many points to be giving UCLA. The Bruins last 9 games have all been decided by single-digits. They may not be winning many but they aren't losing by much.

The Utes are off back-to-back losses and before that was a 5-point win. They are 0-1 against the spread off a Pac-12 loss this season and 6-20 ATS in that spot the last 3 years. Over that span, the Utes have won only 4 of their last 19 January games, going 6-13 against the number.

UCLA is 7-2 against the spread its last 9 road games when the total ranged from 135 to 139.5. The Bruins won by 7 here last season and this will be another close one. Grab the points. ***PAC 12 GOM***

Navy was favored for both but these teams split a pair of games last season. Holy Cross returned a lot more from last year's team than Navy did. The Midshipmen lost a lot, as last year's senior class was a special one. In fact, their top 5 scorers from last year are all gone.

Navy coach Ed DeChellis acknowledged it would be challenging before the season: "It's going to be a major transition."

Facing a hungry and undervalued Holy Cross team, Navy will feel those losses. The Crusaders lack some size but Navy doesn't have the team to take advantage.

The Midshipmen are off a loss to Army and they are only 4-9 against the spread their last 13 tries, when off a Patriot League loss. Holy Cross has played a lot of road games but won its last home game decisively. Navy is 0-6 on the road. Grab the points! ***PATRIOT LEAGUE GOY***

These were the two worst teams in the Horizon League last year. The Phoenix have been better than the Jaguars so far overall. Not if we look at the home/away splits though. IUPUI is 4-3 at home. Wisconsin Green Bay is 3-7 on the road. Two of those 3 road wins came by 2 points or less.

IUPUI hammered this team 68-53 last season. It was the Jaguars best win of the season. That result will inspire confidence on Wednesday afternoon. Off a cover at Youngstown State, the Jaguars are 27-18 against the spread their last 45 conference games. Give me the big points.

I played against BYU last game. The Cougars came crashing back to earth with a bad home loss to Cincinnati. Apparently, life in the Big 12 isn't going to be quite the cakewalk that some BYU fans had started to envision. Still licking their wounds, the Cougars are now up against a better team.

The Bears spent non-conference play battling teams like Auburn, Florida, Duke and Michigan State. They began Big 12 play with a 5-point win at Oklahoma State. The Bears are 9-2 against the spread as favorites and will add another win to that record tonight.

For a game which will likely be decided at the buzzer, this is too many points. The Cowboys are off a 5-point loss to Baylor. Prior to that, they'd won 5 straight games. Their only other loss since the start of December came by 2 points.

The Red Raiders are on a nice winning streak and are off an impressive win over Texas. The victories before Texas were against inferior opposition though and the upset over the rival Longhorns will have them ripe for a letdown.

The last 3 meetings were all won by 3 or fewer points. Scores of 71-68, 71-68 and 52-51. OSU won all three. Grab the points.

I had a big play on the Bearcats in their upset of BYU. Off that big road win, I'll now fade them as favorites against an arguably more talented team than the one they were just double-digit underdogs against.

The Bearcats are 6-13-1 against the spread the last 20 times that they were off a conference win. The Longhorns are 9-5-1 ATS in the same time span, when off a Big 12 defeat. This game will come down to the wire. Grab the points!

In this battle of the Cardinals, I'm grabbing the points with visitors. Don't read too much into the non-conference records. Incarnate Ward won a couple of games with no line but has been an underdog in all 12 lined games. It was. a fairly challenging schedule and they won't be intimidated tonight.

Lamar is 0-5 straight-up the past 5 times it was off a conference win. Lamar is also 0-5 against the spread the past 5 times it was a home favorite in the 6.5 to 9 range.

The road team won both meetings last year. IW won by 6 here last January. Both teams played Saturday. Lamar is 1-19 straight up the past 20 times it was in that spot. IW is 15-5 against the spread the past 20 lined tries when playing with 1 or 0 day's rest in between games. So far, they have won by 9 and lost by 2 in that situation this season. Grab the points! ***SOUTHLAND GOY***

The Mustangs are off a 65-54 win. That was at home against Charlotte though. They're just 4-11-2 against the spread their last 17 tries after allowing 60 or less.

The Tigers are 4-2-1 against the spread the past 7 tried as home favorites of -6.5 to -9 points. The Tigers are also 14-5-2 ATS their last 21 tries against teams which allow 64 or fewer points.

The Tigers won 2 meetings in 2023 by 19 and 15 points. They will again be too much for the Mustangs to handle! ***AAC GOM***

This line is too big. BYU has a good team and brings a top 25 ranking into tonight's game. The Cougars do have a quality win over SD State and they did blow out Arizona State. They also lost to Utah and the rest of the schedule has been soft. I don't think all that much of Arizona State and the victory over the Aztecs was by single-digits.

To put it another way, I'm not convinced the Cougars are as good as their ranking suggests. Conference play is here, the Cougars' first Big 12 game. They're hosting a solid and competitive Cincinnati team. Importantly, BYU will miss Fousseyni Traore in this game, an important player who played a key role in the victories over ASU and SDSU.

The Bearcats are 11-2. Only one loss came by more than 5 points. They won't make BYU's Big 12 debut easy. Grab the points! ***BIG 12 GOY***

Don't be fooled by the Gamecocks. South Carolina has built up a strong record in non-conference play. The majority of those were weak or mediocre opponents. Now that SEC action is here, the Gamecocks will start to struggle. They were 4-14 in SEC play last year.

The Bulldogs have also built up their record against less than elite opposition. They're the real deal though. They returned all 5 starters from last year's NCAA Tournament team. That same group of Bulldogs won by 15 here last January.

Already 7-0 against the spread against teams with a winning record, Mississippi State will cover this small number. ***EARLY RISER***

Two teams at opposite ends of the MAC Conference spectrum. The Akron Zips won 22 games last seaon and they are the clear favorite to win the MAC this season. Put simply, the Zips are loaded.

Bowling Green was 5-13 in MAC play last year and 11-20 overall. With only 1 returning starter and a 1st year coach, the Falcons are likely going to struggle again.

Playing at home, the Falcons just gave up 90 points to Eastern Michigan. Playing on the road against a much better team and they may easily give up even more. Akron is 5-0 at home, outscoring teams 87 to 59.4. The Zips won last year's game here by 14 and this will be an even bigger blowout. ***MAC GOY***

Minnesota picked the wrong time to visit! The Wolverines have failed to cover 3 straight games and they are a perfect 6-0 against the spread their last 6 in that situation.

The Gophers are 0-3 against the spread their last 3 tries as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points. They are 19-41 ATS their last 60 in that role!

The Gophers are also 1-6 ATS and 0-7 straight up the past 7 times that they played a road game where the total ranged from 150 to 154.5.

The Wolverines believe they are improved from last year and will show it against the worst team in the conference. They won last year's 2 games by an average of 9.5 points and this will be an even bigger win! ***BIG TEN GOY***

Sacred Heart is projected to be among the top teams in the Northeast Conference. Saint Francis is considered to be among the worst.

The Red Flash have dropped 3 of 4 games, the only victory coming at home and by 2 points. They are 2-7 against the spread their last 9 as road underdogs of 6.5 to 9 points.

Sacred Heart is 2-0, straight-up and against the spread, the last 2 times it hosted Saint Francis. Last year's game here was close but this one will not be. The Pioneers are off back-to-back big victories, winning by 10 and 29 points. They are ready to start conference play with a bang. Lay the points! ***EARLY RISER***

The Mountain West Conference is loaded. These teams are at opposite ends of it. The Aztecs are loaded again after winning 32 games last year. The Bulldogs lost 20 games last year and are destined for another challenging season.

The Aztecs closed 2023 with 4 straight wins. The last 3 all came by double-digits, including a road win at Gonzaga. They are 6-0 at home and they have momentum heading into the new year and Conference play.

The Bulldogs lost by 20 the last time that they were up against a top level opponent. They don't have the athletes or depth to compete against SDSU for the whole game. Fresno State starting point guard Isaiah Hill missed last game with a hand injury and is questionable. If he can't go, or if he's less than 100%, it will hurt the Bulldogs even more. Either way, they are in trouble.

The Aztecs are 24-17 against the spread in MWC play the last 2 seasons and they will start this year with a blowout. ***MWC GOY**

Southern Illinois comes off a great season but the Salukis lost their 2 best scorers from that team. Though they've fared pretty well lately, Belmont presents a more difficult matchup. The Bruins are always one of the better teams in the Missouri Valley Conference. This year will be no different.

Jones and Domask scored 30 of SIU's 63 points in last year's meeting. Both are gone and they will be missed.

Since a blowout loss at Arizona, Belmont is 7-2, winning 7 of the past 8. Both losses came by single-digits.

SIU just played before the new year and Belmont comes in rested. The Bruins are 3-1 (straight up and ATS) the past 4 times that they played with 7 or more day's rest in between games. In a close game, where the underdog Bruins have a great chance at the outright win, give me the points! ***MVC GOY**

This game will not be close. UT Arlington is 0-6 against the spread the past six tries as a road underdog of 15.5 to 18 points. Texas is 3-0 ATS its last 3 tries as a home favorite of 15.5 to 18 points.

Texas allows 55 points per game at home. UT-Arlington allows 81 ppg on the road.

The Mavericks are off consecutive double-digit defeats. The Longhorns are off a 35-point domination, their 4th straight victory. Last meeting saw the Longhorns win by 20. They'll win by even more than that Monday afternoon. ***CBB CAKEWALK***

Both teams began conference play with a loss. Idaho State lost by 8 to Montana State. Montana lost by 30 to Weber State. The Wildcats are a strong team. So, the loss wasn't totally unexpected. The 30-point blowout was. It will have the Grizzlies confidence shaken. Weber State shot very well and also outscored Montana by double-digits in the paint.

Idaho State coach Looney has been here 4 years and believes that this is his most talented team. They badly want to avoid an 0-2 start in Big Sky play and are catching the Grizzlies at the right time. Not only is Montana off the 30-point loss but the Grizzlies are playing their 4th straight on the road. That's tough during the holiday season.

The Bengals played a fairly tough non-conf. schedule and it should help them now that conference play is here. They're "coming to play" today and I think they have a real shot at the outright victory. Grab the points. ***BIG SKY GOY***

To these teams, home-court really matters. Little Rock is 6-3 at home but 1-3 on the road. Tennessee St is 5-1 at home but 1-5 on the road. The Tigers outscore visiting teams 84.5 to 67.3. The Trojans are 0-2 against the spread as away underdogs. They get outscored 81 to 75 on the road.

Last season, UALR won by 12 at Little Rock but the Tigers won by 25 when they played at Nashville. That game was also the final day of the calendar year, as it was played on New Year's Eve.

Tennessee State won 18 games last season. Little Rock only brought back 1 starter from last year's 10-21 team. The Trojans won't be ready for the Tigers on Saturday afternoon. ***Ohio Valley GOM***

These rivals almost always play close games against each other. The last three meetings were all ultra close. Stanford won by 1 and Arizona State won by 4 points, twice.

Six of the last 7 meetings have been decided by 5 or less. The lone exception was a 9-point ASU win. That allows you to conclude that none of the last 7 meetings have resulted in Stanford wins of greater than 5. An even closer look shows that Stanford only won 2 of those 7 games and that both of the victories were by 3 or less.

Stanford may have closed the gap on Arizona State a little but not enough to lay this many points. The Sun Devils won 23 games last year and went to the NCAA Tournament. Stanford was 14-19.

The Sun Devils thrive in this role. They are 5-0 against the spread the last 5 tries when they were road underdogs of 3.5 to 6. I'll take the points! ***PAC 12 GOY***

Homecourt will make a big difference for this Horizon League battle. Last season, the Golden Grizzlies won by 3 at Oakland but the Vikings won by 16 in the game at Cleveland State. The Golden Grizzlies started out covering the spread every game but have cooled off. They got destroyed in their last 2 games and are 1-4 their last 5. That's straight up and against the spread. The Vikings started slowly but have since caught fire. They are off back to back big wins and have covered the spread in 4 straight. Grizzlies are 2-4 against the spread last 6 when playing with 7 or more day's rest. The Vikings play 4 of their next 5 on the road and will protect their homecourt on Thursday. ***Horizon League GOM***

Arizona is really good. People don't realize that FAU may be even better. Every bit as good, at least. The teams were ranked #14 and #15 in the preseason rankings, the Owls holding the 1-spot lead. Arizona is now up to #4 which gives FAU a very rare chance at such a high-profile matchup. FAU coach Dusty May said: "We wanted to play it in the worst way for a lot of reasons. National television. Our guys wanted to be challenged. They love the challenge. And we felt our program was at a point where we needed these games to elevate even more than a Final Four run." FAU brought everyone back from last year's Final 4 team. Arizona returned only 1 starter from the team that lost in the NCAA 1st rd. Give me the points! ***SUPER FIGHT****

This game will be played at Enterprise Center, in St. Louis. Illinois is 0-2 against the spread last 2 times it was a neutral court favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. Missouri is 2-0 against the spread as a neutral court underdog of 6.5 to 9 points. One of those games occurred on this very day, at this very venue, last year. Illinois was favored by 6.5 points for that December 22nd, 2022 game. Playing in front of a packed house, Missouri won by 22! At one point, the Tigers went on a 41-15 run. The Illini are only 4-9 against the spread their last 13 on a neutral court. All the Tigers' losses have been close. Give me the points. ***CBB UNDERDOG GOW***

Iowa has a lot of advantages in this game. Better athletes all over the floor. The Hawkeyes are at home where they are 25-15 against the spread their last 40. Their guests are 16-22 against the spread, on the road, during that time period. Off 3 straight losses, the Hawkeyes got right with an 88-52 wipeout of Florida A@M last game. This is every bit as much of a mismatch. The Hawkeyes are averaging 95.8 points per home game and UMBC is conceding 86.4 points per road game. Iowa will put up a massive number and win going away. ***WED. WIPEOUT***

This is too many points for a team like Bowling Green to be laying. The Falcons were 11-20 last season and they brought back only 1 starter. The Falcons have won 6 of their last 9 games but only 2 of those wins came by more than 10 points. The Pirates score 83 points a game and the Falcons are only 6-14 against the spread their last 20 against teams which score 77 or more. Hampton is 8-2 against the spread the past 10 times that it was a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points. Grab the points! ***EARLY RISER***

These teams met in the first round of last year's NCAA Tournament. TCU won a thriller. Arizona State would like to avenge that loss but its not going to happen. At less than perfect health, the Sun Devils aren't going to enjoy tonight's visit to Dickies Arena. Having already been blown out 77-49 by BYU, the Sun Devils are 0-3 their last 3 games against Big 12 competition. TCU takes care of business in December. The Horned Frogs are 9-4 against the spread in 13 tries in the month of December, 12-1 straight up in those games. They are also 6-2 against the spread the past 8 times that they played with 5 or 6 day's rest. This one won't be close. ***Weekend Wipeout***

Give me the points with Furman. The Paladins were the best team in the Southern Conference last season and advanced to the NCAA second round. The Paladins are 4-1 against the spread the last 5 times that they were road underdogs of 6.5 to 9 points. The Paladins are also 9-4 against the spread the last 13 tries after allowing 60 or less. Off a 30-point loss, the Green Wave are only 9-19 against the spread their last 28 games outside of their conference. Grab the points! ***Road Warrior***

The Aggies blew out the Broncos at Utah State last year. Two totally different teams will face each other tonight but Santa Clara hasn't forgotten. The Broncos are a brilliant 18-9-1 against the spread their last 28 as underdogs, 13 of those resulting in outright victories. They already won outright at Stanford and beat Oregon. In both cases, they were getting points. The Aggies replaced every starter from last year's NCAA tournament team, as well as their coach. They are 9-14 against the spread their last 23 on the road, 0-2 this season. Give me the points. ***Underdog GOM***

The Braves are in over their heads again. Alcorn State is off 7 straight losses. 6 of those came by more than 10 points, including each of the last 5. Last game was a 28 point loss. The game before that was a 21-point loss. That is exactly the type of opponent which Maryland wants to see right now. The Terrapins allow 65 points a game at home, the Braves allow 88 points a game on the road. Maryland will win with ease and improve to 11-6 against the spread the last 17 times it faced a team with a losing record. ***CBB Wipeout***

Its been a few years since these teams faced each other. The last time came in 2019 and Penn won by 19 points. Before that, the Quakers won by 17 in 2017. Different faces for today's game but the result will be the same. Howard is 1-4 against the spread, losing all 5 outright, the last 5 times it was a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. The Bison haven't played since November and that will hurt them. They are 2-4 against the spread their last 6 after playing with 7 or more day's rest. The Quakers are 18-9-1 against the spread in home games the last 2 years. Off a game against Kentucky, they should win this one fairly comfortably. **CBB CRUSHER**

Iowa is 7-3 against the spread its last 10 tries as a home favorite in the 3.5 to 7 point range. Over that period, Iowa is also 2-0 against the spread after failing to cover in each of the previous 3 games. Michigan is averaging 75.8 points per road game. Iowa is averaging 99.7 points per home game. Hawkeyes won by 9 here last season, covering the -5.5. They do it again this afternoon! ***Conf. Crusher***

The Dukes are a good team with a national ranking but this will not be an easy game. Far from it. The stadium will be a white-out and the home team and crowd believes it can pull off the upset. "We're a marked team right now," James Madison coach Mark Byington said. "I'm anticipating that Old Dominion crowd being one of the toughest we play all year." Both JMU road games have been by 5 points or less. These teams had one common non-conf. opponent. Last game here, the Monarchs beat Radford. That same Radford team gave JMU real trouble in a 3-point game. The last 2 JMU visits here were decided by 5 and 2 points. The Monarchs, 4-2 against the spread their last 6 tries after 3 straight non-covers, hung within single digits at Arkansas. JMU coach Byington went on to say: "I know they've been excited about our game and it's a really good team, good coach. Great intra-state game. It's a little odd playing in December but here we go." Give me the points. ***Sun Belt GOY***

Give me the points with Florida Gulf Coast. Though the Eagles have gotten off to a tough start, they are better than their sub-500 record indicates. The Eagles brought back 4 of their top 5 scorers (8 of top 10) from a team which won 17 games. The Gophers may be without the versatile Dawson Garcia, as he left last game with a leg injury. The Gophers are a dismal 1-9 against the spread their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. Grabe the points!

Give me the points with Eastern Kentucky. The Colonels returned 4 starters from a 23-win team. They are averaging 87.5 points per game. UNC Greensboro is 9-16-1 against the spread at home the last 2 years. The Spartans only returned 1 starter from last year. They are 2-10 against the spread the past 12 times that they scored 80 or more points in their last game. EKU won by 4 last December. This will be another close one. ***Road Warrior***

The Jaguars won 19 games last season and nearly made it to the NCAA Tournament. They've got an excellent backcourt and I look for them to upset Mercer this afternoon. The Jaguars didn't score well at Jacksonville State but they're 10-5 against the spread the last 15 times that they scored 60 or less. Mercer is 1-4 its last 5 games and that lone win came by 1 point. The Bears are only 5-10-2 against the spread the last 17 tries as home favorites of 3 or less. Grab the points. ***EARLY RISER***

San Jose State hosted North Dakota State last week and won 78-65. The Spartans have since played 2 road games, losing them both. They may have some tired legs. The Bison haven't played since the loss at San Jose State. They are 6-4 straight-up the last 10 times that they played with revenge from a road loss, 62-40 their last 102. They are also 5-2 straight-up their last 7 when playing with 5 or 6 day's rest in between games, 50-24 their last 74. They will be the fresher team. The Spartans are 6-24 straight-up their last 30 road games, 0-7 when the total was in the 135 to 139.5 range. They are 5-56 their last 61 in that spot. Bison will have their revenge! ***CBB Revenge GOY***

Perhaps this isn't the most exciting game on the board but the best value is often found in the lesser known conferences. Utah Valley is projected to be a top 5 team in the WAC Conference. Utah Tech is projected to finish dead last. The Wolverines did lose a lot from last season but new coach Todd Phillips still has a lot to work with. The Trailblazers will play their first home game. They have won only 6 of 20 conference games since joining. Utah Valley won both games last year. With a 44-25 against the spread record their last 69, the Wolverines will win again. ***Road Warrior***

Knowing that they got swept by them last season, the Bulldogs will be too much for the Bears this afternoon. Missouri State hasn't faced competition this good. The Bulldogs will be on of the top teams in the Missouri Valley Conf. again this season. They began conference play by crushing Valparaiso. Their 46-29 second half will act as a springboard into today's game. Bulldogs average 83 points at home. Bears average 68 points on the road. Drake wins by 10+! ***MVC GOM***

Six meetings between these "rivals" since 2006, 2 in the past 2 years. The Aztecs won all six games. All 6 victories came by at least 16 points. This will be another destruction. The Tritons are off 3 straight losses and they've been getting progressively worse. Last loss came by 27 points. That loss came against a team (Washington) which the Aztecs have beaten. Lay the points with the road team and enjoy the beating. ***Road Warrior***

There's a big difference between the Pac-12 and the Big West. The Beavers will likely find things tough in their own conference. UC Davis may have more success within theirs. That makes winning this non-conference game a priority for the Beavers. They can't afford to squander opportunities against squads from lesser conferences. The Aggies are 0-3 against the spread the past 3 tries as road underdogs of 3 or fewer points. The last time that the Beavers were favored, they won by 10 points, when laying -2.5. They get it done again tonight! ***NOV GOM***

Stephen Austin has a very well-coached team and the program has a lot of pride. They beat Drake but then got blown out by Utah State. That won't sit well. Off its previous loss, SFA won its next game by 26 points. The Lumberjacks are bigger, stronger and more experienced than last year. Importantly, they're also healthier. Last season, they dealt with a lot of injury problems. That isn't an issue so far this season. The Lumberjacks are better than the Texans in the frontcourt and also in the backcourt. They're a team destined to finish near the top of the WAC, Tarleton State should finish near the basement. Texans are 1-7 against the spread last 8 tries when playing with 5 or 6 day's rest. Lay the points. ***WAC GOY***

The Rebels are 3-0 at home, 5-0 overall. The WolfPack are playing their first true road game. They are only 7-13 their last 20 away games, 0-4 SU in road games with a total of 145 to 149.5. The Rebels are finding a way to win close games. Three straight wins of 3 points or less. Wolfpack just gave up 95 points in a loss against BYU. They are 7-13 last 20 times after giving up 80 or more. Rebels keep on winning! **Tuesday Takedown**

First instalment of the ACC/SEC challenge. The Tigers have had some trouble covering as favorites but this is their first time as underdogs. They've won 4 of their last 5 and the only loss was by 1 point. The Panthers just blew out Oregon State but the Beavers are among the worst teams in the Pac-12. Before that the Panthers played an SEC opponent, as they will here, and lost by 15. Florida's defense gave the Panthers trouble and Missouri will use similar methods. The Panthers other games all came against weak opposition. The Tigers will give them fits. Grab the points. **Road Warrior**

The Bison are always a force in the Summit Conference and they've got an experienced team this season. They are more than capable of pulling off the upset tonight. The Spartans lost a lot from last season, including star player Omari Moore. They're already dealing with a few injuries. NDSU lost last game but is still 20-14 against the spread last 2 seasons on the road. They have faced Creighton on the road and they already won outright at Montana. This game will come down to the wire. Grab the points. ***Road Warrior***

The Longhorns will have advantages every step of the way this afternoon against Wyoming. The Cowboys haven't faced this type of quality. Off a loss against Connecticut, Texas will be ready to deliver a blowout. Longhorns are 3-0 at home and every win came by 16 or more points. Texas coach Rodney Terry said this after Monday's loss. "And over these two days, back to back, we really grew up in those areas. We grew up in an area of taking care of the basketball, too, and not beating ourselves. There's a high ceiling for this group. Once we get everybody out there on the floor playing together, it's going be a pretty deep and pretty good team." That will be on full display this afternoon. Texas wins big! ***CBB Dominator***

Maryland has faced some quality opponents, including Villanova. Even so, no team has reached 70 points against the Terrapins. They allow 61.6 points a game. South Alabama gave up 102 to Alabama, in a 102-46 loss. That's bad. Even worse, the Jaguars also gave up 102 to Nicholls State! They allow an average of 79.1 points a game. Not good when you only average 58 points a game on the road. The Terrapins scored more than 90 last game. They will clamp down and dominate, this game turning into another rout. ***CBB Bone-Crusher***

The Bruins are used to being good. So you know that they're going to want to get rid the taste of a blowout loss to Arizona. The Hawks showed that they should be respected when they upset WVU. Don't forget that Monmouth was only 7-26 last year though. Belmont scores more than 80 per game. Monmouth scores less than 70. Bruins are 9-3 against the spread last 12 lined games after allowing 80 or more points. Give the solid MVC team over the mediocre CAA squad. **CBB Crusher**

These teams are more equally matched that you might think. They played a close game against each other last season, NC State winning by 4. The Wolfpack are 1-4 against the spread their last 5 in a neutral court game where the total is 140 to 144.5. The Commodores are 5-0 against the spread in a neutral court game where the total is 140 to 144.5. In all neutral site games, Vanderbilt is 8-2 against the spread its past 10. This will be another close one. Grab the points! ***best bet***

These are two good teams. Both are undefeated. Both were just involved in a 3-point game. The Miners didn't even shoot well in their win over Cal and still got it down. Their lockdown defense was the difference. Coach Joe Golding said: "What a game. We were out of whack it seems like the whole game. We were shorthanded, we got in foul trouble. We had different lineups on the floor ..." Braves are only 3-9 against the spread last 12 times they played on a neutral court. I'll take the points! ***CBB BEST BET***

Prairie View has a nice against the spread record but is outmatched in this game. The Panthes were 13-19 last season and they didn't return a single starter. The Colonels won 23 games last year and brought back most of that team. Determined to make it to the NCAA Tournament, this is the type of opponent which they can crush. They can and they will! Eastern Kentucky is 10-3 against the spread last 13 tournament games. PV is 0-5 against the spread last 5 as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points. Lay the points! ***Tourney Wake and Make***

The Lumberjacks will be good within the WAC and potentially could even make their way back to the NCAA Tournament. The Bulldogs are one of the best teams in the Missouri Valley Conference though and they have looked good in winning all their games. They just narrowly missed out on a couple covers. Without having to worry about covering a big number in this one, look for Drake to finish on top and move to 3-0 straight up and against the spread, its last 3 against WAC competition. **Eye Opener**

The Aztecs are always good. Last year, they had a deep NCAA Tournament run. They're going to be a solid again. They're not unbeatable though and they're a team that doesn't always score that many points, which leads to close games. Who could forget their dramatic 1-point wins in last year's tournament. The Huskies followed up a close loss to Nevada with a close win against Xavier. Off that victory, Washington coach Mike Hopkins said afterward: "Sometimes shots don't fall, sometimes foul shots don't fall, but you got to keep fighting," "We won this game because we were tough. We rebounded. We got stops when we had to get stops and that's why we won. That's why I was so proud of these guys. They kept fighting. It wasn't perfect, but they just kept fighting." This one likely gets decided at the final buzzer. Grab the points! ***Tournament GOM***

Michigan looked great in beating St. John's. The Wolverines are absolutely a talented team. They lost a lot from last year though and are dealing with the absence of Juwan Howard. Off the trip to MSG and with some big games coming up after this one, it won't be easy to blow out Long Beach State. Not with the talent, depth and experience that the Beach players have. They hung within 12 at San Diego State, after close games at Depaul and Portland. They will give the Wolverines trouble today! ***Road Warrior***

Bonnies will win this game outright, in my opinion. Cowboys are 3-5 against the spread last 8 on a neutral court. Even with a slow start, St. Bonaventure is 9-5 against the spread last 14 in the month of November. 11 outright wins. The Bonnies played in Metro NY last season and had success. That experience will serve them well today. They are much closer to home than the Cowboys. Grab the points! ***Tourney Shocker***

Red Storm weren't ready for Michigan but they will have plenty to take on North Texas. That loss to the Wolverines wasn't fun but it will act as a wake-up AND a warm-up for the Red Storm. They will benefit from the experience. St. John's is 5-1 against the spread last 6 neutral site games, 7-2 against the spread last 9 tournament games. Pitino admitted that it will take time for his team to hit their stride. Behind the scenes he's demanding more. He will have the Red Storm ready and they will bounce back with a win and cover this afternoon. ***tourney takedown

Pacific is off a nice upset of Cal. The Tigers are only 5-13 against the spread the past 18 times that they scored 80 or more points though and Nevada is a really tough team. Already 2-0, the WolfPack just beat Washington. The Tigers are also 3-13 against the spread, their last 16 tries as road underdogs of 12.5 to 16 points. Tigers are also still only 9-22 against the spread last 31 against winning teams. Tigers get a nice 5-game homestand after this. First, they take their lumps on the road. ***wednesday wipeout***

The Aggies are 0-2 against the spread so far but they will fix that today. UC Davis has strong guard play. A lack of size in the frontcourt won't hurt them against a North Dakota State team which is off an 89-60 loss. In lined games, the Bison are 4-9 against the spread the last 13 times after they allowed 80 or more points. They are also 8-14 against the spread in non-conf action and 3-6 in tournament play. Lay the small number! ***Tourney Dominator***

Everything worked out for the Gauchos last year. They set school records and went back to the NCAA Tournament. They've got a good program. The Gauchos lost quite a lot from last year though and it will take time for the newcomers to gel. That showed itself in their opening game upset loss against Portland State. The Miners are excited about their team. They crushed their first 2 opponents and will rise to the occasion of hosting a team that went to the Big Dance last year. Gauchos are only 4-6 against the spread last 10 as underdogs. Lay the small number. ***Slam Dunk Club***

Big Game and big opportunity for the Buckeyes. They are at home with a chance to take down a top 15 program. Off a close win in the first game, Ohio State coach Chris Holtmann commented: "I give our guys a ton of credit. They found a way to get some stops and make some necessary plays down the stretch in a game that could've gone either way." The Buckeye players are ready and excited for today. Zed Key: "...I know we are all looking forward to playing such a big game this early in the season. Be there on Friday." Bruce Thornton: "You look for those big games. That's one of the reasons we came to Ohio State, to play a top-15 team in the country (at home). I'm ready for Friday." Thornton and Key combined with Gayle Jr. for 51 points in the Buckeyes first game. Catching the Aggies, 13-23 against the spead their last 36 as road underdogs of 3 or less, playing their first road game, that trio will lead the Buckeyes to a victory tonight. **

James Madison somehow managed to knock off Michigan State in its opening game. Off that upset, the Dukes are walking into a hornet's next. With a 79-58 win in their home opener, the Golden Flashes extended their home game winning streak at home to 23 in a row. The Flashes are 17-7-1 against the spread when playing a game with a total in the 140 to 149.5 range, 5-1 against the spread in home games with a total of 145 to 149.5. They are also a perfect 4-0 against the number when favored at home between 3.5 and 6 points. James Madison showed it can play with anyone but tonight will belong to Kent State. ***MAC-SBC CHALLENGE WINNER!

Over the past 2 seasons, North Texas is 2-0 against the spread as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. The Mean Green have won 27 or their last 32 home games. An excellent defensive team, North Texas allowed just 53 points a game at home last season! Northern Iowa gave up 71.6 points per game on the road! Last 2 years, Northern Iowa is just 6-13 against the spread in non-conference lined games. Lay the points! ***CBB dominator

The Buffaloes have struggled to cover as favorites the last couple of seasons. The Tigers have been good at covering as underdogs. Things will change for at least today. Towson lost some important pieces. Cam Holden graduated and Nicolas Timberlake transferred to Kansas. The duo, which combined for more than 32 points per game, will be missed against a tough opponent like Colorado. The Buffaloes are for real. Deep and talented, this is one of Coach Boyle's best teams. The Buffaloes will begin their year with a big win which will bring them to 23-13-2 against the spread as -12.5 to -15 point home favorites. **Opening Day Rout

UConn is a heavy favorite to cut down the nets Monday. They may very well end up winning, but this is too many points to lay to a very good San Diego State. It’s a bigger number than the UConn-Miami game and I have San Diego State rated higher than Miami.

NCAA Title Game favorites of eight points or higher are just 2-5 ATS since 1970. We’re not quite there yet, but it’s something that I wanted to note. 

Now I’m fully aware that UConn has won its five previous Tournament games by an average 20.6 points/game while beating the spread by more than 15 points per game. But we also need to salute what San Diego State has done. The Aztecs are 4-1 ATS in the Tournament and have won nine games in a row overall. 

Both teams play outstanding defense and neither plays particularly fast. While the respective Final Four opponents looked to speed them up, no one is looking to play fast here. UConn is 214th in adjusted tempo while San Diego State is 270th. 

Don’t consider this an endorsement of the Under, but I certainly don’t expect this to be a high-scoring game. Points will be at a premium, thus taking the underdog is the way to go here. San Diego State has only ONE double digit loss all year and it was to Arizona back in November. 10* 

Bet against this Miami team at your own peril. The Hurricanes are 9-2 ATS as underdogs this season, winning five of those games outright. They come into the Final Four fresh off upsets of Indiana, Houston and Texas. 

It’s not just this season either. Under Larranaga, Miami is 33-12 ATS as a dog the last three seasons and 20-5 ATS since the start of last season

UConn seems to be the popular choice to cut down the nets Monday night, but can they sustain their recent level of play? Probably not! The Huskies have made it look easy so far, winning their first four tournament games by a combined 90 points.

But Miami has put up 85, 89 and 88 points the last three games, two of those against top 10 defenses in the country. They are doing so without a high volume of threes, which makes the scoring even more impressive. 

With its incredible stable of guards, Miami can beat anyone on any given night. I’ll gladly take the points with the best underdog team in the country the L3 seasons. They’ve faced the tougher competition in this Tournament and since January 11th, they’ve lost only ONE game by more than three points. That was in the ACC Tournament against Duke, a game where they lost their big man Norchad Omier in a matter of seconds. Take the points. 10* 

I like UAB to win the NIT. The Blazers’ only loss in their last 13 games came to FAU in the C-USA Tourney Final and they (UAB) were actually favored over a team that’s now in the Final 4 of the “Big Dance.” 

With North Texas also involved here, it’s an all Conference USA Final. In addition to FAU’s run, Charlotte has already won the CBI, so what an impressive run by this league in March. This is the fourth meeting between North Texas & UAB this season. North Texas won both in the regular season, but UAB got revenge in the conference tournament with a 76-69 win as 1-point favorites. 

North Texas needed a bit of a miracle to get by Wisconsin in its last game. The Badgers didn’t score over the game’s final nine minutes. Tip your cap to the Mean Green defense, but this is a team that needed OT to get by Oklahoma State in the quarterfinals as well. 

I’m just not sure North Texas can generate enough offense here. They’ve barely won the last two games, despite giving up an average of 54.5 points/game in regulation. Wisconsin did score 41 against them in the first half Tuesday. UAB averages 81.3 points/game, which is top 10 in the country.

Plus the potential absence of big man Abou Ousmane (team leader in rebounds and blocks) looms large for North Texas. Lay the points. 10*

Utah Valley has been the most profitable College Basketball team to bet on this season. The Wolverines enter the NIT semifinals with a 24-9 ATS record. Since the start of February, they are 11-2 straight up and ATS in all games. They’ve beaten New Mexico, Colorado and Cincinnati to get here. 

But UAB, while not quite as profitable at the betting window, is the deserved favorite in this one. The Blazers have won 15 out of 17 games, going back to late January. The only two losses were to another NIT Final Four team (North Texas) and to Florida Atlantic in the Final of the C-USA Tournament. I probably don’t need to remind you as to what FAU has accomplished this March. 

Led by Jordan “Jelly” Walker, UAB has beaten Southern Miss by 28, Morehead State by 18 and Vanderbilt (on the road) by 8 in their previous three NIT games. They average 81.1 points while giving up only 69.9 per game. Eight of their last 15 wins have come by double digits.

Early money sided with the Blazers and so do I. They are the better team at both ends of the floor and played in the tougher conference.

Walker hasn’t even been shooting all that well recently (below 40% L4 games) and it hasn’t mattered. UAB went just 2 of 15 from three at Vandy and still won going away. They are simply the better team here and I will lay the points. 10*

After opening the Tournament with a couple wins over double digit seeds (Charleston, Furman), San Diego State served notice with a 71-64 victory over top-seed Alabama in the Sweet 16. They pulled the upset despite leading scorer Matt Bradley going just 2 for 9 from the field and finishing with only 6 pts. 

The key was holding Alabama to 3 of 23 from behind the arc. The Aztecs can’t count on Creighton being that cold Sunday in the Elite 8, but they (SDSU) have held opponents to 28.2% for the year from three. 

Creighton is likely due for some shooting regression after making 58% of their FG attempts Friday. Getting a 15-seed (Princeton) in the Sweet 16 is as favorable as it gets for the Bluejays, who I also think weren’t as dominant as the final score (85-76) showed against Baylor in Round 2. They were 11 of 24 from three in that game. 

End of the day, Creighton is in store for some serious shooting regression against what is a top four defense in the country per KenPom.

Also, lower seeded teams are just 2-5 SU/ATS in this year’s Tournament when favored. Creighton is a 6-seed. San Diego State is a 5-seed. The Aztecs also have revenge from last year’s Tournament when they were up nine with less than four minutes in regulation, only to lose in OT. 10* 

Kansas State is coming off back to back wins (75-69 over Kentucky and 98-93 over Michigan State) where they were underdogs, despite being the higher seed. In each instance, ShotQuality data indicates that the Wildcats “should have” lost, the Kentucky game due to being a little fortunate defensively and the Michigan State game due to being a little fortunate on both ends of the court. 

So far in this Tournament, KSU is shooting 65% from two-point range, so they are definitely due for a little regression here. KenPom has FAU rated as the better team here, and I won’t disagree, so let’s take the points in this first Elite 8 matchup. 

After squeaking by Memphis in Round 1, Florida Atlantic has beaten 16-seed FDU and then 4-seed Tennessee. That second round matchup was a bit of a gift and the Owls underperformed (perhaps feeling the pressure as big favorites?) but I didn’t think there was anything phony about the Sweet 16 win over Tennessee.

The Owls held the Vols to 33.3% shooting in the 62-55 win. This is a team that’s now won 10 in a row - with six different leading scorers - and is 34-3 SU on the year. 

I don’t think Kansas State will shoot 55% in this game as they have in two of the previous three rounds. Remember they’ve needed Kentucky to 4 of 20 from three and then shoot the lights out themselves to get by Michigan State. 8* 

Miami is the 5-seed here in the Midwest Region and just beat Indiana 85-69 as a 1.5-point underdog in the second round. But that came on the heels of a close call vs. Drake in the first round where the Hurricanes needed to rally late for a 63-56 win and cover as 2.5-point favorites.

Top seed Houston failed to cover its first round game as the Cougars could only defeat 16-seed Northern Kentucky (a tricky team that plays zone defense) 63-52 as lofty 19-point favorites. But after falling behind early, Kelvin Sampson’s team roared back in the second round, eventually blowing out Auburn 81-64 as 5.5-point chalk.

Looking at this matchup, the one thing that sticks out is Miami ranks just 109th in defensive efficiency. That’s the worst defensive rating among all Sweet 16 teams (even worse than Princeton) and I think they’ll struggle to contain Marcus Sasser (22 points vs. Auburn) and company. Miami is allowing almost 54% of its opponents’ points to be scored inside the three-point line.

Miami supporters will point to the guard play, which was tremendous again vs. Indiana. But this is a far worse matchup for the Hurricanes as Houston allows the lowest midrange shooting percentage in the country and also have the highest block rate in all of College Basketball.

Furthemore, Houston has a big edge in rebounding in this matchup and is well-suited to slowing down Miami, thus limiting the ‘Canes’ transition opportunities. 10* 

This is a great spot to fire on Southern Utah, in my opinion, as Eastern Kentucky is not only playing its third game in three days but the previous two both went to overtime!

On Sunday, EKU rallied back from a 13-point second half deficit to stun Cleveland State 91-75 as a one-point favorite. That was one of the most misleading finals you’ll ever see as the Colonels outscored the Vikings 17-1 in OT. Then yesterday, they were ahead most of the way against Indiana State, only to again go to OT - where they prevailed 89-88 as a seven-point dog. 

Southern Utah had a close call yesterday as well, beating Rice 91-89 but failing to cover the 4.5-point spread. But that too was a misleading result as the Thunderbirds led the entire way and were up by as much as 17. 

This is SUU’s third game in four days, but they had Sunday off and have not logged the extra minutes EKU has. Furthermore, Southern Utah easily won its first CBI game, 72-50 over North Alabama, an ASun rival of EKU. 

Southern Utah (16th in adjusted tempo) plays even faster than Eastern Kentucky (44th). A fast paced game is not ideal for the Colonels right now, given they’ve played 90 minutes of hard fought basketball the last two days. Lay the short number. 10* 

Milwaukee was a surprise team in the Horizon League this season, finishing second behind Youngstown State. But the Panthers’ run towards the NCAA Tournament ended with a semifinal loss in the conference tournament, 93-80 to Cleveland State. They got the invite to the CBI, however, and made the most of it by defeating Stetson in OT yesterday, 87-83 as a 1.5-point dog.

You may think Charlotte has a bit of an edge because their first round CBI game was on Saturday. The 49ers did defeat Western Carolina 65-56 as six-point favorites. But they had to come back from a 31-20 halftime deficit to do so. WCU shot 3 of 20 from three-point range and was just 3 of 7 from the free throw line.

I don’t think we’ll see those kinds of numbers tonight from Milwaukee, who averages eight made threes per game and shoots nearly 74% from the FT line. 

Important to note that Charlotte came into the CBI on a three-game losing streak. They are just 2-5 ATS their last seven games following an ATS win. 

Even with the rest advantage, I don’t see how the 49ers are this big of a favorite. It will be interesting to see what pace this game is played at because Milwaukee is 12th in the country in adjusted tempo while Charlotts is 362nd (second slowest). The Panthers are 7-2 ATS following a game where they allowed 80 or more points. 10* 

Miami was only a 2.5-point favorite against Drake in the first round. Like all of the other 5-seeds, the Hurricanes were able to avoid the upset, but in their case it was not easy. The ‘Canes trailed Drake by eight points with under five minutes to go, only to close with a 16-1 run. 

It was a real shock that Miami could win a game where it shot 11 of 38 on two-point attempts. I say that because this is a team that typically relies on its offense. The Hurricanes are just 114th in the country in defensive efficiency, the lowest ranking among remaining tourney teams save for Fairleigh Dickinson. 

Indiana will not let “The U” off the hook the same way Drake did. The Hoosiers had far less problems in Round 1 as they beat a very good Kent State team 71-60 as 4.5-point favorites. IU held Kent to just 32% from the field. 

Jackson-Davis should have a big game here for the Hoosiers against a Miami team that I already mentioned is suspect defensively. The ‘Canes don’t really have the size to match up.

IU can also shoot the three. Defensively, they are built to stop Miami’s backcourt. 10* 

This number seems crazy to me. I’ve got Tennessee rated as the better team, so there’s no way they should be getting three (or more) points here even though Duke looked awfully impressive in its first round blowout over Oral Roberts.

Believe it or not, Shot Quality numbers suggest Duke was not nearly as dominant as the final score showed against Oral Roberts. That surprised me a bit as the Blue Devils were never threatened in the 74-51 win. But Oral Roberts missed a TON of open shots in that game.

Tennessee only won by three against Louisiana in their first round game. But they led by as many as 18 points and only shot 25% from three. I think the Vols are better than how they looked Thursday.

No Zeigler remains a big deal for UT but this team can play defense. They are #2 in the country in defensive efficiency (per KenPom), holding teams to 37.0% overall shooting and 26% from three.

The ACC was really down this year and I think we’re at the peak of the market right now with Duke, who won their conference tournament and is drastically overvalued as a result. I think the wrong team is favored in this 4 vs. 5 matchup. Take the points. 10* 

I think this is a very tough matchup for 4-seed Indiana drawing Kent State as a 13-seed. Champions of the Mid-American Conference, Kent State won’t be the least bit intimidated here

The Golden Flashes have a slightly higher defensive efficiency rating than Indiana. That’s notable as, rarely, do you see the mid-major underdog with a higher defensive efficiency rating than the favored school from a power conference.

Sincere Carry is the player to watch for Kent State. Defensively, I think they can do a good job at limiting Indiana’s Trayce Jackson-Davis. 

The Golden Flashes are 4-0 ATS as underdogs this season, 4-0 ATS on a neutral court and 10-1 ATS in the non-conference. They very nearly beat Houston and stayed within seven of Gonzaga. 

Indiana is just 7-9 SU away from Assembly Hall and MAC teams have done quite well recently in this Tournament as underdogs. Take the points. 10*

Kansas State seems like a vulnerable high seed to me. The Wildcats were picked to finish last in the Big 12 in the preseason, so it’s a bit of a shock to even see them here in the Big Dance, let alone as a 3-seed. 

The Wildcats were not particularly strong away from home either, going just 8-8 SU overall. They come into the Tournament having lost two in a row, the regular season finale (89-81 at West Virginia and then they were one and done in the Big XII Tournament, losing 80-67 to TCU). 

A bit of ominous history for K State - the last four #3 seeds to lose in the Round of 64 all hailed from the Big 12.

Montana State won the Big Sky Tournament to get here. They were not regular season champions, although I think most who followed the league knew the Bobcats were better than Eastern Washington. Montana State comes in with a 5-1 ATS record as an underdog this season. They were in the Tournament last year.

Montana State gets to the free throw line a lot and I think can find success attacking the rim in this matchup. Defensively, they should be able to exploit Kansas State’s turnover issues. Take the points. 10* 

I like the underdog here. When the higher seed (in this case, Texas A&M) is favored by three points or less, they are on a money-burning 38-62-4 ATS in the NCAA Tournament. Furthermore, the Big 10 is on a 12-1-1 ATS run vs. SEC teams in the Big Dance! 

Both teams lost in the Final of their respective Conference Tournaments. But I’ve felt Texas A&M comes in a bit overvalued. They were down 13 at halftime to Arkansas in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament. It was certainly a surprise to see the Aggies finish second in the SEC this year. 

Penn State underachieved much of this year, but they’d won five straight before falling to Purdue by two on Sunday and they are 5-1 ATS L6 games. Also, the Nittany Lions are 13-2 ATS L15 neutral site games and 11-5 ATS as underdogs this season.

A&M is very reliant on getting to the free throw line to generate points, but Penn State is one of the best teams in the country at not fouling. The Nittany Lions also don’t give up a lot of second chance points, something else A&M thrives on.

But the big red flag for Texas A&M is that they allow a high three-point rate. Penn State is one of the Top 10 three-point shooting teams in the country. Penn State doesn’t turn the ball over much either. 10*

Arkansas is the favorite here and is getting the majority of bets. But we’ve actually seen the line go down, which is a signal that Illinois is the sharper side in this 8 vs. 9 matchup. 

When the higher seed (in this case, Arkansas) is favored by three points or less, they are on a money-burning 38-62-4 ATS in the NCAA Tournament. Specifically, 8-seeds are on a terrible 4-16-1 ATS run when favored by three or less over 9-seeds (with 14 outright losses). 

Also boding well for Illinois is the fact that Big 10 teams are on a 12-1-1 ATS against the SEC in NCAA Tournament games! Overall, Arkansas has never beaten Illinois, losing all five head to head meetings. 

Zeroing in on the specific matchup, neither team enters the Tournament in good form. But Illinois is 5-1 ATS as a dog this season and I think they can do a good job at limiting transition, which is what Arkansas wants to do here. 

Arkansas is a bit of a mess right now as well. There was an issue with the coaching staff and reporters following the loss in the SEC Tournament where the Razorbacks blew a 13-point halftime lead. I know the Hogs have been to back to back Elite Eights, but this is not a team I want to back right now. 8* 

Arizona State is no stranger to these “First Four” games as this will be the third time in the last six years they’ve had to come to Dayton to “play their way in” to the NCAA Tournament. Previously, they’ve gone 1-1 SU in this scenario under Bobby Hurley. 

I like the Sun Devils’ chances of making it 2-1 tonight as they face a Nevada team that’s probably lucky just to be here. The Wolf Pack were not included in the final 68 of most bracketologists’ projections. It was a surprise to see them get the nod over Rutgers after losing three straight - all as favorites. 

Considering they were favored all three times, you may not be shocked to learn that all of those Nevada losses came to non-tournament teams (Wyoming, UNLV and San Jose State). To be fair, the last two were both overtime games. But still, the Torvik rankings have them 97th in the country over the last month. That’s not good. 

I don’t think ASU will be bothered too much by the size of Nevada.  The Sun Devils, who have two former Wolf Pack players on their current roster (transfers), are 28th in the country in defensive efficiency. Nevada’s shot selection is not particularly good according to the ShotQuality numbers.

Arizona State can be inconsistent, but holds wins over the likes of Arizona and Creighton. Nevada is pretty good about not turning the ball over, but there aren’t many teams in the Mountain West with the length of ASU. Also, can’t forget that the MWC is on a horrendous NCAA Tournament run (14-35-1 ATS L50 games, 20 straight losses for teams seeded 10th or lower and 0-7 SU overall the L3 tournaments). Lay the points. 10*

This is an NIT game where Youngstown State will look to get over the disappointment of being bounced from the Horizon League Tourney (where they were the top seed). The Penguins had a great year overall, finishing 24-9 straight up and they have not lost back to back games all season. 

Oklahoma State is the NIT’s #1 overall seed, but has caught an unlucky break in that a scheduling conflict with their home arena (wrestling tournament) has resulted in this game being played at the Beeghly Center, the home of Youngstown State. 

So while the Cowboys are the higher seed and from the much stronger conference, it’s a major disadvantage having to go to a place where YSU is 14-2 SU this season.

Taking the points here seems like a “no brainer” to me and the early money agreed. This will be only the fourth time all season that Youngstown State is catching points.

No Avery Anderson III for the Pokes either and that’s a significant absence. This team is just 2-6 SU/ATS over its last eight games and despite the words of head coach Mike Boynton Jr, I’ve got to imagine there’s some real disappointment on the OSU side over not getting into the Big Dance as an at-large team. Now having to go on the road in the NIT as a higher seed may lead to an unmotivated effort. Take the points. 8* 

This is a “First Four” matchup in the South region of the NCAA Tournament with a couple of 16 seeds - Texas A&M Corpus Christi taking on Southeast Missouri State - playing for the “right” to likely get beat down by Alabama in the Round of 64.

Texas A&M CC were the regular season champs of the Southland and obviously also won the Conference Tournament to earn the automatic bid. The Islanders enter the Big Dance with a 23-10 overall SU record and have won 12 of their previous 13 games. They are led by Trevian Tennyson. 

SEMO were not the regular season champs in the Ohio Valley, in fact they finished fourth in that league. So it's certainly a surprise to see the Redhawks here. They had to win four games in four days to win the OVC Tournament. This is the first time the program has been in the NCAA Tournament since 2000. 

Before they went on their run in the OVC Tourney, SEMO had lost five of seven games. They are deserved underdogs for this “First Four” matchup.

SEMO likes to play fast (7th nationally in adjusted tempo), but that is likely to work against them here as Texas A&M-CC averages over 80 points/game. I have the favorite rated ahead of a 16-seed (Howard) that’s already in the Round of 64. So I’m not sure the Islanders should even have to be in this game. Look for them to pick up a big win. 10*

Normally, I might be a bit leery of laying points with Alabama in this spot as they have a 1-seed all but sewn up for the NCAA Tournament. But the Crimson Tide are playing with revenge Sunday and I look for them to blow out Texas A&M.

In the final regular season game, the Crimson Tide went down to College Station and lost 67-61 as a 1-point underdog. They shot just 33% from the field, including 4 of 16 from three. I expect a much better effort at the offensive end today.

A&M won handily yesterday against Vanderbilt, making it 10 wins in the last 11 games (also 10-1 ATS). But the Aggies were very lucky to beat Arkansas Friday in the quarterfinals. They were down 13 at the half in that one.

Alabama has posted two double digit victories so far here in Nashville. They’ve allowed an average of 55 points/game. 

The Crimson Tide have won each of the last five times they’ve sought revenge from a prior loss on the road. They are 4-1 ATS in those games. 10*

This is the Ivy League Tournament Final. Yale and Princeton tied for first place in the regular season (both 10-4). Yale had the better overall record (21-7 vs. 20-8) and got the regular season crown based on sweeping the two regular season meetings with Princeton. So they are the top seed in this tournament and Princeton is the #2 seed.

With the Ivy League Tournament involving just four teams, Yale and Princeton only had to win once to get here. Yale had little problem with Cornell, winning 80-60, while Princeton had to battle back to outlast Penn 77-70. 

But Princeton has a MAJOR edge in this Tournament. The games, including this Final, are being played in their home gym. So much for the “benefit” of being the #1 seed, Yale! 

I also don’t expect to see Yale shoot the way it did yesterday vs. Cornell. The Bulldogs went 10 of 16 from three (62.5%) while Cornell was just 8 of 30. Three-point variance is a big part of College Basketball handicapping. Playing at home, I cannot see Princeton falling victim the way Cornell did on Saturday. 

About those two regular season losses to Yale - Princeton led both games at halftime. In the second meeting, which was here at Jadwin Gymnasium, the Tigers were up 19 in the second half before blowing it and losing in overtime. Princeton was a 2.5-point favorite for that game. Getting points with them at home in this situation is too good to pass up. 10*

Cal Santa Barbara got a big break yesterday when the top seed in the Big West Tournament, Cal Irvine, lost. Now the Gauchos are the favorites to win the Tourney and get the automatic berth into the Big Dance.

Of course, UCSB will now have to defeat the team that upset UC Irvine, that being Cal State Fullerton.

Both teams come into this Final pretty hot. UCSB has won six in a row while going 5-1 ATS. The lone non-cover was by half a point. CS Fullerton has won eight in a row, but five of the wins have come by four points or less.

These teams split the two regular season meetings. The favorite has covered 13 of the last 19 times they’ve met. So history is on UCSB’s side in that regard.

I just think the Gauchos are the better team and we’re getting some really nice value here. 10*

VCU looks to beat St. Louis for a third time this season, only this time there’s a lot more on the line. The Atlantic 10 figures to be a one-bid league this year, so only the winner of the Conference Tournament is getting in. 

The teams got a day off between their quarterfinal victories and this semifinal. Both teams romped to victory in the quarterfinals, St. Louis beat George Mason 82-54 and VCU beat Davidson 71-53.

The favored Rams are now on a seven-game win streak. They won the first meeting 73-65 as a three-point dog at St. Louis, then came from behind to win going away, 79-67 (as a 7 point favorite) at home in the second meeting.

VCU has covered the number in five of its previous six victories. The only one they didn’t, they won by 6 laying 6.5. 

St. Louis is just 2-10-1 ATS off an ATS win, so it’s hard to trust them here after the performance they had against George Mason. 8* 

I like Kentucky in the fourth and final quarterfinal matchup of the day in the SEC Tournament. The Wildcats will face Vanderbilt and are decided favorites here to advance. They are seeking to avenge their only defeat over the last six games, a two-point defeat at Vandy on March 1st.

UK was a nine-point favorite in Lexington in that loss. They fell behind early and could never quite fully recover in what turned into a dismal shooting night, 32.2% overall and 15.8% from three.

But the Wildcats are rested Friday and Vandy is not. The latter had to beat LSU 77-68 yesterday to get here. That was the Commodores’ fourth straight win and 9th in the last 10 games. But I’m still not a believer. 

In this season’s first meeting, Kentucky rolled to a 16-point victory. They’ve won six of seven over Vandy.

Liam Robbins is hurt for the Commodores and he’s a big loss. I don’t see the team continuing its recent offensive surge (77.4 points L5 games) as Kentucky has held opponents to score less than 30% of their points from three. Lay it. 10*

Michigan State is rested. Ohio State is playing for the third time in as many days. I see no reason why not to lay what I consider a very short number in this Big 10 quarterfinal matchup.

These teams just met in the final regular season game. Michigan State won 84-78. The Spartans also won the first meeting, far more convincingly, 62-41.

Ohio State has covered five in a row, but this is a team that dropped 14 of 15 Big 10 games at one point. They haven’t been that convincing so far in this tournament, beating Wisconsin and Iowa by only eight and four points respectively. (They did lead Wisconsin big in the first half).

But tired legs are likely to be an issue here for the Buckeyes, who at one point failed to cover nine straight games in the regular season. 

Michigan State should be coming into the Big 10 Tournament on a four-game win streak. But they let one slip away in OT against Iowa. The three wins have all been by six points or greater. Sparty is rested here and has really had Ohio State’s number. 8*

Southern Utah is going to be my 10* WAC Tourney Game of the Year as the Thunderbirds play Utah Tech in a quarterfinal matchup late Thursday. 

Southern Utah is the #3 seed in this tourney and they got a bye into the quarterfinals by virtue of finishing the regular season with a 12-6 conference record. Only Utah Valley and Sam Houston State were better.

Utah Tech is the 11-seed in this tournament and had to win yesterday just to get here. The only team that finished below Utah Tech in the WAC standings was New Mexico State, a program that had to forfeit its last seven games. 

Utah Tech stunned Stephen F Austin in overtime last night with an 80-76 upset. It was just their fourth win over the last 12 games. I cannot see them winning two nights in a row. The last time the Trailblazers won back to back games was right after Christmas. 

Utah Tech is just 1-3-1 ATS its last five times off an ATS win. 10*

Illinois draws Penn State in the second round of the Big 10 Tournament on Thursday. The winner here will move on to face Northwestern, who looks to be a pretty “weak” two-seed, so the winner here could very well find themselves in the semifinals. I think the team that advances here is going to be Illinois, who I’ll lay the points with.

Penn State did close the regular season pretty strong by winning five of its last six games. The only one they lost, the Nittany Lions blew a 19-point lead at home to Rutgers. But PSU has certainly ended up on the right side of some close calls as well down the stretch. The last three wins have all come by four points or less and they needed a buzzer-beater to beat Maryland Sunday. The Nittany Lions were down as many as 16 in that one.

This is a double revenge spot for Illinois, who lost twice to Penn State in the regular season. The first time was back in December, 74-59 as a 10.5-point home favorite. Then they lost by 12 in State College (93-81) as a 3.5-point road favorite. 

Looking at this number, we’re getting a great price on the Fighting Illini, who were favored by more on the road than they are now at a neutral setting.

Now oddsmakers had to adjust based on the two regular season results. But Illinois is the better team here. Penn State went 24 of 52 from three in the two regular season meetings. They won’t shoot that well again tonight.  Remember this tournament is played in Chicago, so it’s basically like a home game for Illinois. 10*

Toledo is the top seed in the MAC Tournament and begins its quest to capture the conference’s automatic NCAA Tournament berth with a quarterfinal matchup against 8-seed Miami Ohio.

Only the top eight seeds qualify for the MAC Tourney, so the RedHawks are the worst of the lot here in Cleveland. They went just 6-12 SU in conference play, a far cry from Toledo’s 16-2 SU mark. 

The top seeded Rockets won both regular season meetings, by three on the road and by 18 at home. In each case, they closed as a double digit favorite as they are here. I’m not at all scared of this number.

Toledo is top 10 in the country in offensive efficiency and averages 85.7 points/game. Just way too much firepower for Miami to keep up. Over their last five games, the Rockets have averaged 92.4 points/game. 

Miami recently closed as a 1-point dog at Western Michigan and was barely favored at home over Bowling Green. Those are two teams that didn’t even qualify to be in Cleveland. This is a huge mismatch. 8*

This is the quarterfinals of the SWAC Tournament with 1-seed Alcorn State taking on 8-seed Texas Southern. Right away, the fact the 1-seed is only a slight favorite should jump out to you.

I’m all about fading Alcorn State in this tournament as the Braves have been one of the luckier teams in the entire country this season. They’re 15-2 SU L17 games, but that includes two overtime wins and five others by five points or less. 

One of the OT wins came against Texas Southern on January 14th. Alcorn State then captured the rematch 89-81 just a couple of weeks ago. Texas Southern went just 8 of 33 from three in those two games.

While Texas Southern is on an 0-3 SU/ATS run entering the tournament, two of the losses were by four points or less. 

Bottom line: this is a matchup of two teams with misleading records. Alcorn State is NOT as good as its record while Texas Southern is certainly better than theirs. Alcorn State is only 5-8 ATS as a favorite. 10*

New Mexico, who was actually the last unbeaten team in the country at one point (14-0), is overvalued coming into the Mountain West Tournament because of their “must win” status. The Lobos faded badly down the stretch, losing 8 of their last 11 games. I don’t think there’s any reason to expect a massive turnaround this week.

Now Wyoming, New Mexico’s 1st round opponent here in the MWC Tourney, had a terrible regular season. Plagued by injuries, the Cowboys finished last in the Mt West with a 4-14 SU conference record. But I believe they’re being undervalued in this spot.

The Pokes played New Mexico tough in both regular season matchups. After losing to them by just a single point at home back in December, 76-75, they went to Albuquerque and pulled off a 70-56 upset as 10-point underdogs. Those who follow this conference know that winning at “The Pit” is no easy chore. 

Wyoming also recently beat a decent Nevada team in what was their final home game of the regular season.

New Mexico’s defense has been really bad down the stretch and thus they are not a team you want to lay points with right now. If they do advance here, there may be some value on them as a dog. But not here. 10*

Fresno State has won just one of its last six Mountain West games, a 74-69 triumph at Air Force on 2/21 where they were 2.5 point dogs. But I like FSU here as their slow pace and solid guard play should work to their advantage against a Colorado State team that offers little in the way of rim protection.

This is also a big revenge game for Fresno State, who has lost the last nine matchups with Colorado State and failed to cover any of the last 10. Looking at the matchup, there’s really no reason for the one-sided domination, which seems rather random. The last meeting ended up being a three-point game, 60-57.

I expect this to be another low-scoring slog. It should be noted that Colorado State hasn’t topped 60 points in any of its last three games away from Fort Collins. 

Fresno State has been pretty unlucky all season when it comes to opponents shooting the three. Teams have hit 37.5% against them from behind the arc, but fortunately CSU shoots just 29.7% from distance away from home.

I just don’t think you can trust Colorado State laying points, even a small number like this. Fresno State has averaged 94 points over its last two games, and while that’s skewed by facing Chicago State in the last game, I like the Bulldogs plus the points in this one. 8* 

Oral Roberts is the only team in the country that did not lose a conference game during the regular season. So it would be quite the shame if the Eagles failed to win the Summit League Tournament. Their resume probably isn’t good enough for an at-large bid to the NCAA Tourney, so expect no letdown in tonight’s Conference Tournament final against North Dakota State. 

North Dakota State upset South Dakota State, the 2-seed in this tournament, last night. The Bison are the 3-seed, but came into yesterday’s semifinal as a 5-point underdog with seemingly all the money on the other side. NDSU shot the lights out (56.1% for the game) and led by as many as 21 points! 

I don’t see the Bison playing nearly as well tonight against what is, by far, the best team in the Summit League. It was an uncharacteristically narrow win for ORU yesterday, 70-65 as 13-point favorites (against St. Thomas). For the season, the Eagles have outscored conference foes by 16.3 points/game.

Oral Roberts won the two regular season meetings with North Dakota State, 92-69 and 74-66. We’re getting a “discount” on the spread here because a) it’s a tournament final and b) ORU has now failed to cover eight straight games.

The Eagles are coming off an uncharacteristically poor shooting night from three (just 24%). Combine that with the likely shooting regression we’ll see from North Dakota State and it all adds up to a big win for the favorite tonight. 10*

There’s already been a big shakeup in the Big Sky Conference Tournament with top seed Eastern Washington losing its first game. Northern Arizona and Montana State are already on to the semifinals and two more teams, including the winner of this game, will join them there tomorrow.

The winner here meets 2-seed Montana State in the semis. Weber State is the 3-seed while Sacramento State is the 6-seed. This is the first tournament game for both teams.

Weber State won the two regular season meetings, although both were close and very low scoring (50-48 and 52-49). It should be noted that Sacramento State is one of the 10 “slowest” paced teams in the country per adjusted tempo. 

It also should be noted Sacramento State has just two wins in its last 10 games. One of those came in the last regular season game, 76-74 at Portland State, a game the Hornets won despite making just one three pointer. The difference was a couple of free throws with three seconds to go in regulation.

This line just looks short to me, given that Weber State is obviously the better team. The Wildcats never lost back to back games all season in conference play. If this turns into a FT shooting contest, bid edge to Weber State, who makes 76% of their attempts from the charity stripe while Sacramento State hits only 69%. Lay the points. 10*

Let’s start today in the Colonial where Charleston takes on Towson in the second of two semifinals. Charleston is surprisingly NOT the top seed in the CAA Tourney, despite being considered the #1 team in the league all year long and winning its final seven regular season games. That honor went to Hofstra, who is playing in the other semi and is currently on a 12-game win streak.

Charleston did make it eight straight wins with a blowout of Stony Brook in the quarterfinals yesterday. That game was never competitive as the Cougars raced out to a 19-2 lead and never looked back. They actually only ended up shooting 38.2% overall and 27% from three. 

Towson, Charleston’s opponent tonight, also had an easy time in the quarters with an 86-60 rout over Delaware. The Tigers shot nearly 60% from the field and were up 46-20 at halftime.

Towson played Charleston tough twice during the regular season, losing by only two and eight points. One of those went to OT and the other saw the Tigers up at the half. Towson went 2-0 ATS in the two meetings.

Towson is a Top 50 team nationally in three-point percentage and still managed to score 86 points yesterday despite finishing the game just 29% from beyond the arc. They hold teams to 42.3% shooting, second best in the CAA, and are also the league’s second best rebounding team. I’m taking the points in this one. 10* 

We’re down to the semifinals in the Sun Belt Tournament (taking place in Pensacola, FL) and there’s certainly been some upheaval along the way with two of the top three seeds losing yesterday (Southern Miss and Marshall). 

This chaos creates a bit of a clear path for Louisiana to nab to the SBC’s automatic NCAA Tournament bid. The Ragin’ Cajuns are the lone top three seed left here in Pensacola and will be facing 11-seed Texas State here in the semis.

Texas State has now won three times in the last four days to get here. They upset 3-seed Marshall 71-68 (as an eight-point dog) yesterday. That was after outlasting Georgia State 81-76 in the first round and a very easy 65-36 win over Old Dominion in the second round.

But the tank could very well be “running on empty” here. Louisiana, who beat Texas State twice during the regular season, has only had to win once yesterday. The Ragin Cajuns had no problems with Ga Southern on Saturday, winning 67-49 and covered the nine-point spread.

After all upheaval this weekend in Pensacola, Texas State clearly stands out as the weakest of the four teams remaining. I’ve got the other three semifinalists (Louisiana, South Alabama, James Madison) all rated fairly evenly. Texas State is well below that trio. Tip your cap for what the Bobcats have done so far, but their run ends here in what should be a blowout defeat. They lost by a combined 28 points in the two regular season meetings with Louisiana, who has a top 55 offense. Lay the points. 10* 

We’ve reached the quarterfinals of the WCC Tournament where San Francisco will take on Santa Clara in the late game to determine who goes on to battle Gonzaga in one of Monday’s semifinals. 

San Francisco had to win a game to get this far and had no problem doing it as the Dons easily downed Pacific last night 80-63 as a 9-point favorite. USF pulled away in the second half, thanks in large part to putting the “clamps down” defensively. They held Pacific to just 4 of 21 shooting from three.

Doing that against Santa Clara is a much tougher task, but fortunately the Dons are getting points here and the number looks to be inflated, probably because the underdogs are playing without rest. But, as we saw yesterday in the two OVC Conference Semis, rest can sometimes be overrated in these situations.

In fact, early money has come in on the dog, a move I agree with. 

This is a double revenge game for San Francisco, who lost both regular season meetings. So the Dons will be highly motivated to get the outright win. Despite those regular season results, I have these teams rated pretty evenly. Oddsmakers did as well installing each as a three-point favorite at home in the two regular season meetings. I actually think the time off works AGAINST Santa Clara here as they could very well come out rusty. 10*

LSU has been abysmal in conference play, going just 2-15 with one of the wins coming all the way back on December 28th. Both wins are at home. So you can't like the Tigers’ chances Saturday in Gainesville.

Florida has won just three times over its last 10 games, but is still a rightful favorite in this matchup. They beat LSU by 11 in Baton Rouge on January 10th. The Gators were two-point favorites for that contest.

LSU hasn’t won a true road game all season (0-8) so this boils down to whether or not we want to lay the points with Florida. I do. LSU is 5-15-1 ATS its last 21 games overall and 4-17 ATS its last 21 Saturday games.

Florida has covered five straight games against teams with losing records. They also just won by 10 at Georgia earlier this week.

I like to back home teams in the final game of the regular season and with LSU mired in a complete tailspin, Florida should roll.10*

It’s been a disappointing season overall for Richmond, who comes into the final game of the regular season sporting a 14-16 overall SU record including 7-10 SU in conference play. Both the vast majority of those losses have occurred on the road. At home, the Spiders are 12-3 SU.

So I like them laying a short number to George Mason Saturday. GMU is probably a touch overvalued right now as they’re on a five-game win streak. The last three wins have all been by six points or less.

This is also a revenge spot for Richmond as they lost by 4 points at GMU back on New Year’s Eve. 

The Spiders have won each of their last three home games, beating Fordham, Loyola and St. Louis. Fordham and St. Louis are two of the top four teams in the A-10. 

George Mason is coming off an OT win where their opponents (Fordham) shot just 3 of 25 from three-point range. The Patriots have just three true road wins all season and average only 64.1 points/game away from home. 8*

Cal Baptist and Southern Utah wrap up their regular seasons Friday before heading to the WAC Tournament next week. Seeding for the WAC Tournament is unusual in that it is not based on conference record, but rather an advanced analytic metric that incorporates conference and non-conference performance.

One of many reasons I wouldn’t want to lay points with Southern Utah here is that the Thunderbirds have lost two straight; 64-57 at Sam Houston State and 83-78 at home to Grand Canyon. Overall, SUU is just 3-4 SU its last seven games.

Cal Baptist also has revenge. They lost as 2.5-point home favorites to Southern Utah back on Feb 1. The final score of that game was 72-71. That game was decided on an “old-fashioned” three-point play with one minute left. Neither team scored after that with Cal Baptist missed the potential GW jumper as time expired.

Given that Cal Baptist was favored in that first meeting, I do not understand why they’d be getting so many points in this rematch.

There’s a big difference in the tempo these teams like to play at as Southern Utah plays fast while Cal Baptist plays slow. Look for the underdog to limit possessions in this game, helping them to (at the very least) stay within the number. 8*