This is quarterfinal action in the Big South Tournament, the last of four games to be played in Charlotte today. Radford is the tournament’s 2-seed while Winthrop is the 7-seed. 

Radford comes into the Conference Tournament on an 0-4 ATS slide, but did win their last regular season game, 67-65 over Campbell. Earlier in the year, the Highlanders rattled off nine straight wins, a streak which included two wins over Winthrop - by 14 on the road and by 3 at home. 

Winthrop comes in on a four-game SU win streak (3-1 ATS), but their last three games were all against teams that finished bottom four in the conference and had to play in the first round of the tournament. The Eagles definitely can score (averaging 82.0 points L5 games) but they are also very poor defensively (349th in efficiency) and turn the ball over quite a bit. 

Radford likes to play slow and held Winthrop to an average of 59 points in the two regular season matchups. Winthrop’s recent scoring surge was already likely to have a downturn, considering they averaged 73.9 points/game for the season. Facing a team like Radford only expedites that expected downturn. 

Getting Villanova transfer Bryan Antoine back should be big for Radford. Antonie missed the final three regular season games. He and DaQuan Smith form one of the better 1-2 combos in this league. Winthrop’s turnover issues will come back to bite them tonight as Radford forces teams to turn it over on 21% of all possessions. Number is way too short here. 10* 

This is a quarterfinal matchup in the Horizon League Tournament. You may be surprised, given that this is the #4 vs. #5 seed, one team is favored by this many points. But not only is Northern Kentucky substantially better than Oakland, they are at home (only the Semis and Final are played at a neutral site - Indianapolis - for this particular Tourney).

These teams just played in the regular season finale. NKU won 78-69 as a 2-point road favorite. Based on that result, this line actually looks a little short. Now, Oakland did win here in Highland Heights - 64-63 as a 6.5-point dog - back in January. But that was a bit of a “head-scratching” result considering NKU led by five at halftime and Oakland shot below 40% for the game. The Norse led by seven with just over three minutes to go.

In the rematch last Saturday, NKU won handily despite Oakland making 15 more free throws on 16 more attempts. 

Northern Kentucky is 13-3 SU at home this season and has lost just one time in their last five games overall. That one loss was by a single point.

Even more impressive about NKU’s recent form is their last four games all came on the road. Oakland got to play its last four all at home and still went just 2-2 SU. There’s a gulf between these two Horizon League sides, much larger than what you’d think based on the seeding. Lay it! 10*

This is the first of four first round matchups in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament (aka “Arch Madness”) in St. Louis on Thursday. Note the early tip time of 1 PM ET. 

I like Illinois State here in a battle of struggling teams. The Redbirds just snapped an 0-6 SU/ATS losing streak by routing Evansville 72-53 in the regular season finale. Northern Iowa has just one SU win over its last nine games, so they are hardly an ideal favorite. 

That one win for UNI came at Missouri State on 2/18 and was by just three points. Going back to mid-January, the Panthers have just two wins by more than three points. 

This is a double revenge spot for Illinois State, who lost both regular season matchups to UNI. But both games were close and decided by a total of just eight points.

Actually, the revenge angle runs even deeper as ISU has lost NINE straight times to UNI, including two MVC Tourney exits. So you can bet the underdogs will be motivated coming into this one. Northern Iowa is 4-12 ATS if they allowed 80 or more points in their previous game. They lost 83-75 to Belmont on Sunday. Take the points. 8*

This is the first round of the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament. The OVC is down this year after losing the likes of Belmont, Murray State and Austin Peay to the Missouri Valley and ASUN. Regular season champ Morehead State was incredibly lucky this season (#1 luck rating at KenPom), so I think this Tourney is pretty wide open.

The second of two first round games Wednesday (the whole tournament is played in Evansville) pits Southern Indiana against SIU Edwardsville. These teams split their regular season series, each winning on the other’s floor. Neither has fared well at the betting window recently. Southern Indiana is 2-10 ATS L12 games. SIUE is 2-11 ATS L13. 

Southern Indiana transitioned into Division I this season and proved a lot of doubters wrong by posting a winning overall record (16-15 SU). The Screaming Eagles are the OVC’s third highest scoring team and second best three-point shooting team. They have four double digit scorers plus the conference’s leading rebounder (Polakovich). 

Plus there’s a bit of a edge to Southern Indiana, whose campus is just 13 miles from where this tournament is being played. 

SIU Edwardsville stumbled down the stretch, losing four straight before a 93-78 win over SEMO on Saturday. The line has already moved against the Cougars and I agree with that. Take the points. 8*

As I wrote about yesterday, the ACC is way down this season. This has resulted in a team like Pittsburgh, picked to finish 14th in the preseason poll, currently topping the conference standings. The Panthers come into Tuesday ranked #25 in the country but I could probably name 50 teams that would be favored over them on a neutral court.

Notre Dame isn’t one of them, but it does “speak volumes” that this line is so low (even in South Bend) considering the Fighting Irish are just 10-19 SU on the year and have lost seven in a row (and 11 of 12). 

For many years, Notre Dame had a tremendous home court edge at the Purcell Pavilion (Joyce Center). All 10 of their wins this season have come here and tonight marks HC Mike Brey’s final home game. Brey is stepping down after 23 years at the helm. It figures to be an emotional environment tonight. 

The Fighting Irish are hoping to get back a couple of key players (Starling and Hammond) for tonight as they were really short handed against Wake Forest on Saturday. Still, I like them getting points in this situation. Each of the L6 games have seen the Irish lose by eight points or less, four of those by four points or less.

Plus, I think Pitt is completely overrated at the moment. 10*

The ACC is way down this year. Not a single team from the conference is currently in the KenPom Top 25. That speaks volumes.

Who is the best team in the ACC right now? Most would say Virginia, but they’ve lost two in a row and before that only beat Notre Dame by two and Louisville by three. The answer to the question may be … Duke. 

The Blue Devils have won four straight and seven of nine. One of those two losses, at Virginia in overtime, they definitely should have won. 

One game that Jon Scheyer’s team certainly did NOT deserve to win was January 4th at NC State when they were soundly beaten 84-60 as 4.5-point road favorites. But you’d have to go back almost 30 seasons (to 1994-95) to find the last time NC State swept Duke in a season series. 

Look for Duke to avenge that loss from January tonight in the final home game of the season. The Blue Devils have been bet up to 7-point favorites as of this writing, but I still like them to cover. NC State just lost by 25 at home to Clemson on Saturday, which says a lot about their squad. Duke turned it over a lot (21 times) in the first meeting, which won’t happen again tonight. They are undefeated at home (15-0) this season, winning by an average of 16.7 points/game. NC State has lost 20 straight times here in Durham and is just 6-14 SU overall vs. Duke the L20 meetings. Lay the points. 10* 

This is an ugly matchup for my first conference tourney play, but I’m showing solid value on Green Bay tonight at Wright State in the first round of the Horizon League Tournament. 

This game is being played at Wright State, but it’s just way too many points to lay in this situation, even if Green Bay is 3-28 this year. Wright State is coming off a tough four-game road trip where they won only once, that being Saturday at Detroit - by 11 points.

Now the Raiders did destroy Green Bay in both regular season meetings, winning by 32 and 31 points. But that can lead to a sense of overconfidence. They (Wright State) may already be thinking about Milwaukee, who would be their quarterfinal opponent (assuming they win here). 

Conference tournaments give new life to teams, even those who had poor regular seasons like Green Bay. The Phoenix are basically playing with “house money” tonight. They have lost by more than 17 only once since the second meeting with Wright State. That was at Horizon League regular season champ Youngstown State. 

Wright State is 3-13 ATS the L16 home games following three or more consecutive road games. This is the most points the Raiders have been asked to lay in any game this season. 10*

For a second time in three days, I’m looking to fade Maryland Eastern Shore. It didn’t work out Saturday as the Hawks ended up bludgeoning Coppin State 78-57 on the road. But this is a much tougher opponent that UMES is facing Monday.

After winning seven in a row from January 9th to February 2nd, UMES has dropped three of five overall. This includes a pair of losses here at home, to Norfolk State and NC Central, who are probably the best two teams in the MEAC this year. 

UMES was an underdog in both of those losses. That’s obviously NOT the case here. While the Hawks have been profitable as chalk in 2022-23, it’s not often you see them laying this many points. Tonight will mark just the fourth time all season that they’ve been favored by six or more. Only once were they favored by eight or more and they did not cover the spread that time (beat Delaware State 68-66 as an 11.5-point favorite).

Morgan State is coming off back to back wins, both at home, over Howard and Delaware State. Howard is the co-leader in the MEAC right now. Both games saw the Bears score more than 80 points. They shot the lights out Saturday vs. Delaware State, making 58.9% of their FG attempts including 9 of 15 from three.

This is a revenge game for Morgan State, who lost at home to UMES by 14 back in January. It was a one-point game at half, but the Bears ended up going just 4 of 18 from three in that one. I expect better shooting tonight (maybe not as good as Sunday) and them to stay inside a generous number. Take the points. 10*

I like Georgetown today as a good old fashioned contrarian home dog. This line has moved in the Hoyas’ direction despite Providence taking the majority of the bets, likely a sign of “sharp money” taking the points. I’m also not a huge believer in this Providence team.

The Friars just lost on Wednesday, 87-69 at UConn. All eight of their losses this second have come on the road. There’s obviously a big difference between UConn and Georgetown, but there’s also a difference between getting and laying 7.5 points. 

Unranked home dogs of +8.5 or less vs. ranked opponents are 58-37 ATS (61%) this season. 

Despite their paltry SU record, G’town has covered the spread in 9 of their last 11 games. 

Providence has lost three straight and five of six on the road. 10*

South Carolina State may have only five wins this season, but I think they are a live dog in this spot, hosting Norfolk State.

Norfolk State, who just had a six-game win streak ended Monday, has two big upcoming games after this. Both are on the road, against Howard and NC Central. Those will determine who finishes first in the MEAC. 

The Spartans may have already been looking ahead when they lost outright at Coppin State Monday. They were 16-point home favorites for that game. 

While 15-3 SU as a favorite this season, Norfolk State is just 8-8 against the spread.

South Carolina State has won its last two home games and they are off a one-point loss at Delaware State. When they lost by 15 at Norfolk State earlier this year, the Bulldogs shot just 40.7% overall. Norfolk State was 53% overall and 53% from three! They won’t shoot as well this time. Take the points. 8*

Not only will I fade Norfolk State on Saturday, I’m taking the team that just upset them on Monday, Coppin State, who is at home here facing MD Eastern Shore.

Coppin State was 0-9 SU/ATS its L9 games before shocking Norfolk State Monday. But I like the idea of grabbing points with them at home, off a win. The Eagles should finally have a bit of confidence here. 

MD East Shore has lost three of four, so it’s not like they have much confidence. They aren’t road favorites very often. They are 5-9 SU on the road, getting outscored by 9.1 points/game this season.

The first meeting between these teams was a 19-point win for MDES. But they shot the lights out at home. On the road, they shoot just 39.3% and average only 62.2 PPG.

The line closed -6.5 in that first meeting, so I’m showing value on the home team getting points in the rematch. 8*

Following back to back double digit losses on the road, I am expecting Baylor to show up in a major way Saturday afternoon when it hosts Texas.

Those back to back losses came at Kansas and Kansas State, and there’s really little shame in losing to two Top 25 teams on the road. Case in point; Texas has dropped four of its last six road games.

This is a revenge game for Baylor as well. They lost 76-71 in Austin on January 30th. But they were without Langston Love and Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua in that game, plus they shot just 8 of 26 from three.

This is only the second time all year that Baylor has dropped two in a row. On the previous occasion, they went to West Virginia and won.

Before the loss on 1/30, Baylor had won and covered the last six meetings with Texas. 8*

I like the spot for Fresno State, even without Isaih Moore, in what will be their final conference home game of the season. 

The Bulldogs just beat Air Force on the road, 74-69, as a 2.5-point underdog.

Nevada has won five of six, but their only loss was on the road (at Utah State) and the only other away game in that stretch was a one-point win. All seven Wolf Pack losses this year have come on the road (they are 14-0 in Reno).

The Wolf Pack have done remarkably well as a favorite this year. But they were actually down at the half at home to San Jose State Tuesday.

This is a quick revenge spot for the home dog, who lost by 11 in Reno two weeks ago. Nevada shot very well in that game - 54.5% overall and 50% from three - percentages they will not match here. Take the points. 8*

Old Dominion just upset Southern Miss, 69-64, here at home as a 2-point dog. It was the Monarchs second straight win as a dog after also defeating Appalachian State on the road, 74-63 (+3). 

Now it’s time to host another of the Sun Belt’s best, Marshall, who is tied with Southern Miss for first place coming into the final game of the regular season. I think ODU pulls the upset again. 

Marshall has won five straight, but the line is moving in the other direction as Old Dominion is now 11-4 SU at home where it gives up just 62.4 points/game. 

This is Marshall’s second road game in three days. Defensively, the Thundering Herd are just not very good as they’ve let five of their last six opponents score 77 or more points.

Now Marshall can definitely score, but look for ODU to slow down the tempo. 10*

This season has turned into a disaster for Ohio State, who has won just once in their last 14 games! Even worse is that the Buckeyes are also 1-13 ATS in this stretch. Their only win came against Iowa, 93-77 here in Columbus back on January 21st. Since then, they are 0-8 SU/ATS. 

But I still like OSU tonight laying a short number at home vs. Penn State, who is just 2-7 on the road. One of those two road wins came last time out against last place Minnesota. I just don’t see the Nittany Lions winning two straight on the road.

Big 10 home favorites are 64-19 SU at home this season. This is the ultimate “buy low” spot on Ohio State after they were humiliated by Michigan State, Iowa and Purdue the L3 games. Two of those were on the road. They are 8-5 SU at home.

Penn State is also just 2-8 SU as an underdog. 

Per KenPom, Ohio State has been the unluckiest team in the country this season and they still have a Top 30 offense. I’m rolling the dice and taking them. 10*

East Tennessee State just can’t cover the number at home. The Buccaneers are 1-11 ATS at home this season, which is the worst home ATS record in the country. 

The last time ETSU played at home, they only managed to beat lowly VMI by four points. Since then, they’ve played two tough road games, losing both by a combined six points. 

Now The Citadel has just one win in its last eight games. But the Bulldogs have remained competitive during that stretch, losing four times by six points or fewer.

This matchup is all about wanting to take the points, no matter who is favored. In this case, ETSU is 2-10 ATS when laying points this season. 

A big revenge spot here for The Citadel, who lost by 22 at home to ETSU earlier in the year. ETSU won’t shoot that well again. As a conference fave, the Bucs are 0-5 ATS with four outright losses. 10* 

Western Michigan just ended a nine-game losing streak on Saturday by upsetting Ball State on the road, 78-68 as 7.5 point underdogs. Truly remarkable is that the Broncos had failed to cover the number in their previous eight games.

So not only has WMU been losing, they’ve generally been getting blown out. But I like them here, getting points, against an Eastern Michigan team that is unaccustomed to being a favorite.

EMU has a 6-21 straight up record, one game worse than WMU. The last time the Eagles were favored was January 21st when they lost here at home to Northern Illinois by 21 points.

In fact, the Eagles are just 1-3 SU and ATS as favorites this season. 

Western Michigan won the first meeting between these teams, 85-79 as 2.5 point favorites in Kalamazoo. They didn’t even shoot that well. EMU actually shot the ball better that day and still lost. The Eagles are just 2-10 SU their last 12 games and make for horrible favorites. Take the points, no matter how many you can get. (Love that this number has been bet UP). 10* 

I’m going to come out and say that I think Kansas State has been a huge overachiever this season. My thinking is the Wildcats will be a good team to fade down the stretch.

Over their last 11 games, K-State is only 5-6 SU. Every time they’ve lost, they’ve been an underdog (as they are here). 

Baylor is off an 87-71 loss at Kansas, but before that the Bears had won and covered four straight, not to mention were 10-1 SU their last 11 games.

Big 12 road favorites are 15-7 this season. Across the country, when two ranked teams face off, the favorite has gone 46-35 ATS this season.

I just simply think Baylor is the better team here. They come in with revenge for a two-point, overtime loss in Waco back on January 7th where they were 7.5 point home favorites. 10*

Gonna fade Kansas here, off their 87-71 beatdown of Baylor over the weekend. That was the fourth straight win and cover by the Jayhawks (also 6-1 SU/ATS L7) and as a result they’re only a short underdog for Big Monday in Fort Worth.

TCU got its best player (Mike Miles) back Saturday against Oklahoma State and delivered a vicious 100-75 beatdown on Oklahoma State. That put an end to a four-game SU/ATS losing streak for the Horned Frogs. All those losses occurred with Miles out of the lineup. 

Miles led the way with 15 points Saturday. Five other TCU players finished in double figures. This is just a much better team with Miles in the lineup.

Kansas knows that as they were crushed 83-60 (in Lawrence!) a Miles-led TCU squad last month. I expect the Jayhawks to play better tonight, but it still won’t be enough to win. 

TCU is 12-3 SU at home this season and 10-5 ATS. Big 12 home favorites have cleaned up in general, going 43-14 SU. Lay the short number. 10* 

Two teams headed in opposite directions here. Washington State has won its last two games, both at home, 56-51 over Washington and 80-62 over Oregon State. The Cougars were favored in both wins, but only covered the last one.

Oregon has lost two straight, one to the same Washington team that Wazzu just beat. The Ducks were 5.5 point favorites in Seattle Thursday, but lost 72-71 in overtime. That was after losing 70-63 at home to UCLA last week.

Coming off an overtime loss is tough, especially when you’re only 3-5 on the road like the Ducks are. We’ve already seen Wazzu take money here and they are now a 1-point favorite. The Cougars are 9-3 straight up in Pullman this season.

This is a revenge game for Washington State. They lost by 14 in Eugene way back in December. 

Wazzu could also be getting some players back Sunday, including Adrame Diongue. 10*

Not only did both Niagara and Marist each lose on Friday, but they are on losing streaks entering this game. Niagara has lost two straight while Marist has lost three in a row. I expect the road team to get the victory in this one. 

Niagara fell 70-66 at Mount St. Mary’s Friday as a 1-point road dog. That was after losing 72-55 at home to Iona (as an eight-point dog). Iona is the best team in the MAAC. 

But the thing is, the Purple Eagles had won five in a row previous to the back to back losses. Then you have Marist, who has won just once over its last nine games.

The Red Foxes lost to Fairfield 70-61 as 1.5 point dogs Friday right here at home.

Niagara has revenge here for a two-point loss at home (as four-point favorites) last month. They shoot the ball a lot better than Marist does (45% to 40%). Play the better team laying a small number. 8*

At the end of the day, I just don’t believe North Carolina to be very good. The Tar Heels have lost four of their last five games, the most recent one at home to Miami, 80-72 as six-point favorites. 

Now NC State is also off a loss, at Syracuse, 75-72 as two-point underdogs. That was the Wolfpack’s second time losing in the last three games.

But here in Raleigh, NC State is 12-1 straight up and averaging 83.4 points/game. Given that info, this line looks a bit short. Especially considering UNC has lost all four games in which it has been an underdog this season. The Tar Heels are also 1-6 ATS on the road.

Over their last five games, UNC has shot just 40% from the field. They are shooting 30% from three for the full season.

ACC home favorites are 58-15 straight up this season. I expect NC State to win and cover the spread Sunday. 8* 

Tricky spot here for #18 Creighton, who is coming off an OT loss at Providence and now laying points on the road. Sure, the Bluejays may very well win this game, but I do not see them covering the number.

Now St. John’s got absolutely annihilated when they met Creighton earlier in the year. It was a 104-76 loss as a 10.5-point underdog for the Red Storm. But now look at this line by comparison. Sure, the magnitude of the blowout of the first go around needs to be factored in. But this number should not be any higher than -5, IMO.

The Johnnies also come in as winners of two in a row. One of those wins came here at home against Providence, the same team that just knocked off Creighton.

I also should mention how Creighton is a real geographical outlier in the Big East. This leads to a tremendous home court advantage in Omaha for them. But I think the conference road is a challenge, having to constantly go out East. All four conference losses have been on the road.

St. John’s is 11-4 SU at home and plays at the third fastest tempo in the country. They are a tough matchup for the Bluejays here. Take the points. 10* 

Great spot to fade Texas A&M, IMO. We’re getting Missouri, at home, at a very cheap price due to the Tigers getting blown out earlier in the week at Auburn. But that was a very poor matchup for the Tigers. They are 14-2 SU here in Columbia and should bounce back.

Meanwhile, A&M just won and covered for the fourth straight time Wednesday, outlasting Arkansas 62-56 as four-point favorites. The Aggies were not covering most of the way. In fact, they trailed 33-24 at halftime.

A&M shot 50% from three against Arkansas, which will not happen again on the road. Six of the Aggies’ seven losses this season have been away from home. The four-game win streak has seen them win just once on the road and that was against last place LSU.

To my earlier point, A&M shoots just 30% from three when not in College Station.

Missouri puts up 86.3 points/game at home. Remember they went to Tennessee and won last Saturday, hitting 14 threes against the best 3-point defense in College Basketball history. This is a revenge spot for an 18-point loss in College Station last month where Mizzou shot poorly. 10*

The race at the top of the MAAC has gotten rather tight with Siena just one game back of both Iona and Rider in the loss column. The surging Saints have won two straight, though they failed to cover the 10-point spread against Marist last time out (won 73-65). I like them here, laying a much shorter number.

While Siena is trending in a positive direction, Quinnipiac has dropped three in a row and just got blown out by last place Canisius 85-65 as a five-point road favorite.

Siena captured the first meeting between these teams, 83-76 as a three-point road dog. They scored 52 points in the second half of that game. Given the trajectory of Quinnipiac’s play at the defensive end (allowing 78 or more points in five of the last seven games), I expect another big offensive showing from Siena here.

After shooting just 40.4% their last five games, well below their season average, Siena is due for positive regression at the offensive end anyway. 

There was some sharp action on Siena overnight before we saw some buyback on Quinnipiac this morning. I feel very comfortable laying this short number with the home team. 10* 

I like Gonzaga to roll here in a major revenge spot against Loyola Marymount.

LMU has wins over both Gonzaga and St. Mary’s this season, so they now have a target on their back when it comes to the top two teams in the WCC. 

Gonzaga was a 16-point favorite when they lost at home to LMU last month. It was an uncharacteristically poor shooting night from the Zags as they went only 4 of 14 from three-point range. That was - by far - their lowest scoring effort in conference play.

Loyola Marymount comes into this rematch having dropped three of four overall, including 71-69 at Santa Clara over the weekend. The lone victory, which was against St. Mary’s, required overtime. They trailed 16-2 in that contest.

The Lions are a good home team, but this number is just too low considering the revenge angle and the fact Gonzaga has won 51 of the previous 55 head to head encounters. 8*

Two teams going in totally opposite directions here. Drake has won seven straight while Northern Iowa has lost five straight.

Northern Iowa even lost to Evansville, the worst team in the Missouri Valley. They also lost at Drake by 7, 88-81. The last two games have seen the Panthers go down by 30 points. 

Drake’s last two games have seen them win by 24 and 23. They don’t need to win by nearly that many to cover the spread here.

Over the course of the seven-game win streak, Drake has scored 80 or more five times. Northern Iowa just gave up 80 its last time out. I think it’s important to note that Drake didn’t even shoot all that well in the first meeting (41%) and still put up 88 on UNI.  10*

Tulsa has not been good at home … or really anywhere this season. The Golden Hurricane come into Wednesday night sporting a 5-19 straight up record. Four of those wins have come here at home, but they are just 1-8 ATS at the Donald W Reynolds Center.

Overall, Tulsa has actually been the worst pointspread team in the country this season. They are 3-18-3 ATS in all games! The team’s ONLY win since Christmas came here at home, on January 21st, 81-79 over Tulane.

But I’ll back the Golden Hurricane in this one as a short home dog vs. USF, who has only three wins since Christmas.

The Bulls are 7-1 ATS on the road, but only 2-6 straight up and have yet to be favored in any away game.

Two of USF’s top four scorers missed the last game and they lost by 19. The status of both players (Bryant, Tchewa) remains questionable. 10*

This may seem like a lot of points to lay with a Villanova team that is just 12-13 straight up on the season. But it is a revenge spot, at home, and the Wildcats are facing a Butler team in a prime letdown situation following an upset of Xavier over the weekend. 

Now healthier, ‘Nova has won two straight. They beat Seton Hall 58-54 over the weekend. That was after crushing DePaul last Wednesday. Justin Moore (missed 20 games) being back is huge for this team.

Butler is coming off two straight two-point victories, one over St. John’s and the other against Xavier. Both of those wins came at home. Previous to that, the Bulldogs had lost five in a row, four of those games being decided by more than 20 points.

As an underdog, Butler has not fared well this season. They are not only 2-12 straight up, but 3-11 against the spread. 

Butler shot 56.5% from the field in the first meeting vs. Villanova, which won’t happen again here. The team shoots just 40.6% for the season away from home. 10* 

Kent State has won two in a row since losing to Akron, a result I was on the right side of as my 10* MAC Game of the Year. The Golden Flashes are tied with Toledo atop the conference standings at 10-2. 

Western Michigan, on the other hand, is having a pretty terrible year. The Broncos have lost eight in a row while failing to cover seven straight.

But I think that this is too many points for Kent State to be laying on the road. They’ve lost two of their last three road games and the one win, over Buffalo on Saturday, was by just seven points.

You have to figure we’re going to get WMU’s best effort Tuesday night with one of the high-profile teams in the conference coming to Kalamazoo. 

The Broncos are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. teams with a win percentage of .600 or greater. Take the points here. 10*

Grambling is 9-2 SU its last 11 games, all but two of which have seen them go off as the favorite. Coming into Monday, the Tigers have won and covered three straight. They are favored again here, but it’s worth noting the previous two times they have been on a three-game win streak, the next game ended up being an outright loss. 

One of those losses was at rival Southern, which was also one of the rare instances of Grambling catching points. The other loss came as a five-point home favorite to Alcorn State. Tonight, the Tigers face a Prairie View A&M team that already beat them, 61-60 back on January 2nd.

Prairie View A&M was a 1.5-point favorite in that first matchup, so I’m seeing a little bit of value on them right away for tonight’s rematch. The Panthers have dropped five of seven overall, including a 79-65 loss at Southern over the weekend. But I’m not convinced this spread should be so large. 

Granted a lot has changed since these teams met in the conference opener. But Grambling has another revenge game on deck (Southern) and may be “looking ahead” to that game on Saturday. 

We’ve already seen this number get bet down at most shops and I expect that will continue throughout the day. 10* 

Over the last month, Robert Morris has lost three in a row, won three in a row and now lost three in a row again. The Colonials are coming off a tough 57-55 loss at Cleveland State Friday, a game that was decided in the closing seconds. RMU was 4 of 21 from three in the two-point loss. 

Fort Wayne also comes into Sunday on a bit of a losing streak. They’ve dropped two straight and four of six. This is a revenge spot for the Mastodons, who lost 75-70 at Robert Morris earlier in the season.

Fort Wayne was a three-point favorite when they made that visit to RMU. I know they lost, but it’s curious we are able to get them so cheap for this rematch.

Robert Morris only averages 64.0 points/game away from home where it is 4-11 straight up. Fort Wayne puts up 81.1 points/game at home.

I like the home team to exact some revenge here. I know it’s been a disappointing season, but Fort Wayne was thought to be one of the top Horizon League teams coming into the season and I think we’re getting a discount here. 10* 

#4 Arizona has won seven in a row while going 6-0-1 ATS, but the trip to Palo Alto tonight could be a tricky one. 

It’s been four straight blowouts for the Wildcats. As you know, it’s very difficult in grind of conference play to consistently win by double digit margins. 

Stanford had won five in a row before losing the last two. It was a close call here at home vs. Arizona State Thursday where the Cardinal lost by four, 69-65 as a 2.5 point favorite.

That was a brutal result for Stanford considering they led by eight with five minutes to go. 

Other than a trip to Colorado on Sunday, the Cardinal haven’t played a bad game in a month. This is a possible upset. 10*

Texas State got the win on Thursday, but could not cover as seven-point favorites against Arkansas State. The final score was 66-62. Over their last eight games, the Bobcats are just 2-6 straight up and against the spread.

But I will play them laying a much shorter number Saturday against Old Dominion.

ODU is 4-1 SU/ATS its last five games, but every result has been decided by six points or less. Three wins have been by three points or less, so the Monarchs are probably due for some regression in close games. 

The reason Texas State didn’t cover is because Arkansas State was an abnormally good 9 of 18 from three-point range. ODU will not do the same. Plus, the Bobcats are due to start shooting better themselves from three.

Old Dominion is not only playing its second straight game on the road, but this is the fourth time in the last six games they’re on the road. Their opponent went just 2 of 13 from three in the last game. 10*

Providence has a remarkable record in close games the last two seasons, but I’m going to look to fade the Friars as road favorites here as they pay a visit to a desperate St. John’s team. 

The Johnnies started the year a perfect 8-0, but that was certainly the byproduct of a soft November schedule. Since that 8-0 start, the team is just 6-11. It’s an 0-3 start to February and they’ve failed to cover each of the last six games.

The Red Storm lost by two earlier this week at Butler (were 1.5 underdogs), dropping to 9-16 ATS overall this season. It was another close loss in the first meeting with Providence, which ended up being an 83-80 final. The Johnnies covered that one as seven-point dogs.

Providence may very well be looking past this game as they’ll be hosting Creighton on Tuesday. The Friars didn’t cover vs. Georgetown Wednesday and while they haven’t suffered back to back ATS losses since November, I see that happening here. 

In all due respect, I do not think Providence is a Top 25 team in the country. 10*

Here we’ve got Wright State, who has covered five in a row, as a short home favorite against Northern Kentucky in a Friday night Horizon League matchup. 

The Raiders just dropped 103 in their last game. Now that was against the hideous IUPUI (one of the worst teams in the country), but it’s not like they aren’t normally a high scoring team. Coming into this game, Wright State is Top 20 in the country, averaging 81.3 points/game.

At home, their scoring average rises to 85.8 points/game.

Northern Kentucky has yet to show me they can “keep up” with a team that scores that many. The Norse are averaging just 61.0 points/game away from home. They finished with only 56 in a loss at Youngstown State in the last game.

NKU did win the first meeting, back on December 29th, holding Wright State to just 64 points. But Wright State isn’t going to go 5 of 16 from three again nor will NKU go 11 of 23 again. Northern Kentucky has been an underdog five times this season. They’ve won and covered only once. Lay that short number. 10*

analysis coming

Gonzaga should be very motivated here as they are coming off an overtime loss to St. Mary’s last Saturday, 78-70 as three-point dogs. That was a game the Zags led for almost all of regulation. They were up eight at halftime and maintained that edge going into the final eight minutes. 

Gonzaga doesn’t lose games back to back, but of course the oddsmakers know that and have them as double digit favorites tonight vs. San Francisco. This may seem like a steep number to lay Thursday, considering the “letdown factor” and that the Zags only won by two at San Francisco last month. 

But I’m not afraid. If Gonzaga had lost to St. Mary’s on a, say Thursday, and was laying this many points two days later, then I’d be a bit more hesitant. But they’ve had plenty of time to “get over” that loss to SMU and regain their composure for what should be a full scale effort.

San Francisco has had a pretty frustrating season and comes in as losers of two straight. They lost by nine at St. Mary’s, then by 13 at home to Santa Clara (were three-point favorites). The Dons just cannot match Gonzaga’s explosive offense, which puts up 92.8 points/game at home. 

In their last home game, Gonzaga was laying a similar number to the Santa Clara team that just beat USF. The Zags won by 18. 8*

Georgia State has not had much success this season as they are 2-8 L10 games. But it’s the road that has given the Panthers trouble. All 10 of their wins in 2022-23 have come here at home and that’s where they are Thursday facing Old Dominion. 

ODU has won four of six and just beat Georgia Southern 64-58 as a five-point favorite on Saturday. But be careful about reading “too much” into that 4-2 run. Two of the Monarchs’ wins were by a combined three points, both of those on the road.

This Old Dominion team does not shoot the ball well. They’ve been held under 34% overall in three of the last five games and have been below 32% from three in six of their last eight.

At home, Georgia State is allowing only 63.4 points/game. 

The first meeting, which was just under a month ago, saw ODU shoot the lights out from two-point range (24 of 34!) and Georgia State shot poorly overall. We won’t see that kind of dramatic split in the rematch now that ODU is the road team. 10*

Michigan thwarted rival Ohio State on Sunday, winning 77-69 as a 2.5 point favorite. That was the Wolverines’ second straight win after they also beat Northwestern 68-51 as a 3.5 point road dog last Thursday.

While I did fade Michigan on Sunday, and that ultimately proved to be unwise, I’ve learned from the “mistake.” There’s no denying the Wolverines look to be in a very favorable situation tonight, hosting a Nebraska team I rate as significantly worse than Ohio State.

The Cornhuskers are probably the second worst team in the Big 10. Now they too won Sunday, 72-63 vs. Penn State as five point home underdogs, but prior to that had lost four straight and six of seven. Both wins over the last month came in Lincoln.

On the road, Nebraska has been a bit of a disaster, going 2-7 straight up and 1-8 against the spread. Meanwhile, Michigan’s only home loss in conference play came to top ranked Purdue. 

I’m fine laying double digits here as Nebraska has covered just 2 of its last 10 games overall and hasn’t beaten Michigan since 2018. Six of the seven straight Michigan wins over Nebraska have come by double digits. 10* 

There is currently a four-way tie for first place in the Missouri Valley. Drake is one of those four teams tied for the top spot following back to back double overtime wins.

The Bulldogs have won five straight and eight of nine overall. They did not cover in the three-point win at Valpo on Saturday as they were 8.5 point favorites. But the spread is smaller for tonight’s visit to Murray State and I think they cover this number.

Murray State is two games back of the top four and coming off a horrible loss, 99-56 at Indiana State. Things didn’t go much better when they faced Drake the first time as that was an 18-point loss for the Racers.

While they did recently beat Belmont (by 1) here at home, Murray State is just 4-5 SU over its last nine games and two of those four wins came by three points or less. 

It’s always tempting to take the points at home, but in this case Drake has already demonstrated it is the better team. Yes, coming off two straight 2OT games is tough as well. But the Bulldogs are being undervalued because of that. Lay it. 8*

In what is clearly the premier matchup on Monday’s College Basketball card, I’ll ride with Kansas to beat Texas in a clash of Top 10 teams from the Big 12.

Kansas has lost four of six, so this result probably means more to them. Following wins over Kentucky and Kansas State, it looked like the Jayhawks had started to turn things around. But they lost at Iowa State over the weekend, 68-53.

After things got rather tumultuous, following the dismissal of Chris Beard, Texas has posted wins in seven of its last nine games. The Longhorns are coming off a couple close ones, however. They beat Baylor 76-71 last Monday and then came from behind to defeat Kansas State 69-66 on Saturday.

Against Kansas State, UT was down 11 at the half and didn’t take the lead until the final minute. So that’s a game they probably should have lost. Now turning around 48 hours later to play in Allen Fieldhouse is a tough situation, even for a team as talented as the ‘Horns. 

Kansas is 11-1 at home and this is a short number. This is the first time under Bill Self that the Jayhawks have lost four of five in conference play. It’s a good time to buy low. 8*

Note the slightly earlier tip time for this one (6 PM ET). 

Hartford finally won a game back on 1/25 when it upset Stonehill 73-56 as an eight-point underdog. But the Hawks had no real chance to build any sort of momentum, as they were off until Saturday - when they lost 62-49 to Chicago State, the only other D-I independent. 

For Hartford, this long “homestand” continues Monday when they welcome in UMass-Lowell. I think it’s a good spot to take the Hawks as a big dog. All five of their wins this season have come at home.

Since Hartford is an independent, most opponents will not get “up” for them. In the case of UMass-Lowell, I believe it’s an especially good time to fade though. The River Hawks twice won by double digits last week and are probably peaking towards this weekend’s game at Vermont, which could decide first place in the America East.

In road games where the total is 135 to 139.5, UMass Lowell is just 1-6 ATS this season. Take the points. 10*

Stanford comes into Boulder on a five-game win streak, but one of those wins was out of conference (Chicago State) and they also beat the bottom two teams in the Pac 12 (Cal and Oregon State). So I’m not all that impressed with what I’ve seen from the Cardinal recently.

Colorado is a team that has been struggling; they’ve won just two of their last seven games while going 1-6 ATS. But almost all of their losses have been close and to top teams in the conference.

I like the Buffaloes here as they’ve already gone on the road and beat Stanford 73-70 as a 2-point underdog. They did so despite making nine fewer free throws.

This will also be Stanford’s second road game of the week. Credit them for pulling an upset in Utah Thursday, 78-72 as a six-point underdog, but that was also their first true road win of the season. (They’ve only played five!)

Colorado hasn’t been very good as a favorite, but they are 10-2 SU at home and this is a pretty short number. 8*

Ohio State has lost eight of nine, including a 65-60 loss to Wisconsin on Thursday where they were 7.5-point home favorites. However, I think we’ve hit the “bottom of the market” on the Buckeyes and this is the right time to “buy low.”

Michigan just snapped a two-game losing streak with a 68-51 upset at Northwestern where the Wolverines were 3.5 point underdogs. But overall, the Maize and Blue have dropped five of eight, so it’s not like they are in significantly better form than their rivals heading into Sunday.

KenPom has Ohio State rated as the unluckiest team in the country. That’s supported by the fact that five of their last eight losses have come by five points or fewer. 

The Buckeyes also boast a top 15 offense in the country in terms of efficiency. Michigan’s defense struggles to stop penetration, so look for the underdog to get plenty of points going to the rim in this Sunday matchup. 

I would not be the least bit surprised to see OSU win this game outright, then go on a nice late season run. I have them rated as a better team than Michigan so take those points. 10* 

Eastern Washington remains one of five teams in the country yet to lose a conference game. For the record, the others are: Alabama, Colgate, Oral Roberts and St. Mary’s. I will be fading Eastern Washington tonight as they visit Portland State.

These teams already met once and it was (obviously) Eastern Washington that won, 92-80. The Eagles shot 58% from the floor in that game and went 16 of 31 from three. They will not be doing that again here on the road.

Portland State got a much needed home victory on Thursday, beating Idaho 69-66. That ended a two-game losing streak. The Vikings had also previously dropped three in a row at home. While 1-6 ATS L7 games overall, I think there’s some real value in this team Saturday.

It’s a great spot with tonight being PSU’s fourth straight game at home. Eastern Washington is playing its second road game in three days. The only other time they had to do this and were favored, they did not cover at Northern Arizona. 

While 9-0 SU at home, EWU is just 8-7 SU in road/neutral site games. Portland State is the ONLY team in the country yet to cover a single spread at home. That changes tonight in a major way. Take the points. 10*

For the past two seasons, UNC Wilmington has been one of the luckiest teams in the country. Their straight up record is to be respected, but there have been a lot of close wins. For that reason, I’ll fade the Spartans laying points on the road.

William & Mary has never been to the NCAA Tournament and they won’t get this year barring a run in the CAA Tournament. But the Tribe did beat UNCW 69-67 as a 12-point road underdog on January 14th. 

That was the rare close loss for UNCW. Unfortunately for W&M, they haven’t covered a single spread since (0-6 ATS). But that ATS skid has this number inflated. I know the favorite is out for revenge, but the home team is desperate for a win as well.

Note W&M was just 2 for 14 from three when they beat UNCW last month. I certainly expect they’ll shoot better from three this afternoon. 

UNCW has a big showdown against Charleston looming and they could be looking ahead to that Wednesday contest. Take the points. 10* 

This sets up as perhaps the biggest game of the season in the Mid American Conference as you’ve got first place Kent State traveling to face an Akron team that is a perfect 11-0 SU at home this season.

The host Zips have won seven in a row overall, most recently destroying Buffalo on the road, 81-64 as short two-point favorites.

Kent State has lost just four games all season. Three of those losses were to Gonzaga, Houston and Charlotte, three teams that have a combined SU record of 61-9. The Golden Flashes only conference loss came last week at Northern Illinois, 86-76, and that was a real shocker considering they were 13-point favorites. 

Now the Golden Flashes are a perfect 6-0 ATS the last three seasons as a road underdog of three points or less. But I feel that Akron’s home court advantage will be too difficult to overcome.

The Zips are 31-4 SU L35 games here and we only have to lay a small number. They average 80.4 points/game at the J.A.R. This is a great team at defending the rim and Kent State is outside the Top 200 in 3-point shooting. Leading scorer Castaneda did not play against Ball State on January 6th, which is Akron’s only conference loss. He’s gone for 32 points in three of the last four games. 10* 

Western Kentucky hosts UTSA in Conference USA action Thursday night. Whereas these schools played for the conference championship in football, the basketball programs are not pulling their weight.

WKU has dropped five in a row. They did cover Saturday’s game at FAU as 12.5 point underdogs. It was the second loss to FAU (C-USA’s #1 team) over those L5 games. The Hilltoppers have been one of the big disappointments in the league so far, but oddsmakers still expect them to win big tonight and so do I. 

UTSA has lost eight straight overall and is 0-8 on the road. They have been outscored by 17.2 points/game away from home this season. In conference play, they are being outscored by 12.4 points/game.

The Roadrunners only conference win came all the way back on Jan 5 as a 10 point home underdog vs. Middle Tennessee.  Since then, five of the eight losses have been by double digits. This includes a 10 point loss at home to Western Kentucky.

Again, I expect WKU to roll here. The key here is the Hilltoppers are averaging 77.3 points/game at home. UTSA is giving up 80.6 on the road. I just don’t see a Roadrunners team averaging 63.4 points/game on the road scoring enough here to cover when the opposition is likely to put up somewhere around 80 points. 10*

Northern Kentucky hits the road to face Robert Morris in Horizon League play Thursday night. The hosts have won and covered three straight. The visitors just had a four-game win streak snapped over the weekend. 

It was a one-point loss for NKU at Milwaukee on Saturday, 75-74 as 6.5 point favorites. Just a brutal result for the Norse, who were up 20 - at home - at the half. Milwaukee used a stunning 24-4 second half run to turn the game on its head. 

As a result, Northern Kentucky should be VERY motivated here. They know it should be a five-game win streak coming into tonight’s tilt.

Prior to their current three-game run, Robert Morris had lost five of six. So I’m not buying the Colonials. 

Especially since NKU already beat RMU this year, back in December, 60-56 as seven point favorites. While the Norse didn’t cover the spread at home, tonight all we need is a straight up victory. 10*

St. John’s is off a close call where they only beat Georgetown by two points. Had they lost there, it would have been really embarrassing. As it stands, the Johnnies have dropped 7 of 10 overall.

But I like them here, at home vs. a Seton Hall team that is off one of its best performances in quite some time. The Pirates just went on the road and beat Butler 70-49. I’m choosing to view that as an “outlier” performance. 

Seton Hall had a week off before facing Butler. They’d previously lost at home to Marquette by 21 points. Before that, they’d won two games by a total of five points.

Now Seton Hall did take the first meeting with St. John’s by 22 points and is 6-2 SU their last eight games overall. But the Johnnies should amped to avenge that loss here at home where they are 10-3 SU this season.

This one boils down to pace. St. John’s plays at the fourth fastest tempo in the country. That can lead to some bad defensive efforts, but they are averaging almost 80 points/game at home. Seton Hall has three wins by a total of four points this year. If not for those, they’d be an afterthought.  Despite some injury concerns, I like the home team here. 10*

Wyoming is a team in dire need of a turnaround as they have lost 9 of 10 overall with the one victory coming by a single point. But heading into tonight, the Cowboys have a key edge over their opponent in that they’ve been off for a full week.

The revenge angle is also in play here. Wyoming lost to Fresno State 58-53 back on December 28th. In that game, they held FSU to just 36.7% shooting but were ultimately undone by second chance points. Wyoming had 16 fewer shot attempts, which is obviously huge in a game that was decided by only five points.

That would be the first of what would end up being three straight losses by five points or less for the Cowboys.

This team has gotten healthier since. You wouldn’t have known it from last Tuesday’s showing at UNLV, but at home I’m expecting a better effort. There’s a reason the Cowboys come in as the favorites.

Fresno State has lost five of six itself with four of those losses coming by double digits. Over the weekend, they fell by 17 at home to Utah State. I think this situation sets up tremendously well for Wyoming. Lay the short number. 10* 

Usually, when we talk about Vanderbilt wandering into Tuscaloosa “at the wrong time,” we think of Nick Saban. But over at the Coleman Coliseum, things are likely to get pretty ugly Tuesday night.

That’s because the 4th ranked Crimson Tide just got humiliated out in Oklahoma on Saturday. They lost 93-69 in the SEC-Big 12 Challenge and saw their nine-game win streak come to a crashing halt.

But Bama is still undefeated in SEC play (10-0), one of just six teams in the country without a conference loss.

They’ve already beaten Vandy once, by 12, and that was on the road. The final margin tonight should be a lot greater when you consider the Tide are winning by an average of nearly 23 points/game at home. 

The Commodores have lost five of seven overall. They didn’t get to play a Big 12 team over the weekend, but did lose another conference tilt, 72-66 at Texas A&M. Vandy obviously isn’t anywhere near as talented as Alabama and this is a terrible spot to be facing one of the best teams in the country, who should be plenty angry and motivated. Lay it. 10*

Texas Tech picked up a much needed win on Saturday as they defeated LSU 76-68 as a 2.5 point road favorite in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge. But the Red Raiders are still winless (0-8) in conference play. They look to change that Monday night against an Iowa State team that’s also now reeling a bit.

Iowa State was not successful in its game vs. the SEC, losing 78-61 at Missouri as a one point favorite. That drops the Cyclones to 0-3 ATS their last three games. They’ve dropped three of five outright, all three of the SU losses coming on the road. 

This is a huge revenge game for Texas Tech, who got beat 84-50 in Ames back on January 13th. There was a wide disparity in three-point shooting for the game as ISU went 12 of 22 from deep while TT was 5 of 26.

Despite being 0-8 in Big 12 play, the Red Raiders have almost always been competitive. Five of their losses have been by seven points or less. Two of those were by three or less (to Texas and Kansas) and they also lost in OT to Oklahoma. There have been three games on the conference slate where Texas Tech had the lead at halftime.

Prior to losing in Ames three weeks ago, the Red Raiders were a perfect 8-0 ATS vs. Iowa State going back to 2019. Take the points (while you can get them) and even look to bet TT as a slight favorite (if the line moves). 10* 

Ed Cooley and Providence are doing it again as the Friars come into Sunday on a nice 11-2 run. They are ranked #23 in the country.

If you recall, Providence was considered one of the luckiest teams in the country last season as they won a ton of close games. This year has been a little different. Only three of those 11 wins since the beginning of December have been by single digits.

But the Friars are just a short favorite here at Villanova. If this line “flips” (i.e. Nova ends up being favored), it will put a fascinating trend in play. This season, unranked favorites are 19-9 ATS when taking on a Top 25 foe.

Regardless of where the line ends up though, I am taking Nova here. Providence’s two losses this month both were on the road - at Marquette and at Creighton. The Friars shot the lights out earlier this week vs. Butler and I see some shooting regression taking place today.

Villanova is 6-2 at home. There are three areas which will serve them well in this matchup. The Wildcats are very good at limiting opponents’ two-point shooting, free throw attempts and second chance opportunities, all strengths of this Providence team. Lastly, ‘Nova has been off for nine days and should be well prepared for this contest. 10* 

Ohio State has been the unluckiest team in the country so far, but I think that changes tonight at Indiana. 

The Buckeyes had a nice 93-77 win at home over Iowa last Saturday, but then reverted back to their losing ways by falling at Illinois 69-60 as 3.5-point dogs. That was on Tuesday. OSU is now 1-6 straight up and against the spread over its last seven games.

But four of those six losses have come by four points or less. Really, the Buckeyes could have won any of those. 

Indiana had its own poor stretch, losing six of nine while going 1-8 ATS. But the Hoosiers have now won four in a row, beating Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State and Minnesota.

Looking at this matchup from a market perspective, I say it’s a good spot to buy low on Ohio State while simultaneously selling high on Indiana. 

KenPom has Ohio State ninth in the country in offensive efficiency and 20th overall. Both those rankings are higher than Indiana. I’ll take the points and won’t be surprised if this turns into an outright upset. 10*

Florida Atlantic has still not lost a conference game this season, one of only seven teams that can say that. While the Owls probably won’t lose today, I do think that it’s too many points they are laying to Western Kentucky.

WKU is at the opposite end of the C-USA spectrum currently. The Hilltoppers are 3-7 SU in conference play after dropping four in a row.

But you may recall, I had them against FAU earlier this month. It looked like it was maybe going to be an upset with WKU ahead in the second half. But the Hilltoppers fell apart late and lost by 14. They haven’t won since.

They certainly remember that game though and should come out motivated to knock off a team now ranked in the Top 25. FAU has had plenty of close wins so far, six by four or less to be precise. Their luck is probably due to end at some point.

How about here? Western Kentucky has been a double digit dog only one time all year and that was when they knocked off UAB. Take the points. 10*

I came up short with my Summit League Game of the Month last night, but that’s where we’ll stay for tonight’s lone College Basketball selection as we’ve got the “battle of North Dakota” with North Dakota taking on North Dakota State. 

Just to reiterate what I wrote yesterday, everyone in this league is chasing Oral Roberts, who has yet to drop a conference game. Nobody is further off the pace than North Dakota, who at 1-8 SU in league play finds itself in last place.

But I believe this to be an excellent time to take the points with the Fighting Hawks. While they came up short (again) Monday at Western Illinois, four of their previous five conference losses had been by six points or less.

North Dakota State has dropped back to back games, both here at home, as they were smashed by Oral Roberts, then lost by 2 to UMKC despite shooting 55% from the field.

North Dakota certainly remembers what happened the first time these teams met, which was a horrible 22-point home loss for them. They’ll be out for revenge here and, at the very least, should get the cover. I don’t see NDSU matching its shooting from last Saturday (against UMKC) nor do I see ND shooting as poorly as they did in the first meeting. Take the points here. 10*  

South Dakota State, like everyone else in the Summit League, is chasing an Oral Roberts team that is undefeated in conference play. But nobody’s closer than SDSU, who is two games back of the “summit” (i.e first place). The Jackrabbits begin a three-game road swing tonight against one of the weaker teams in the league, St. Thomas (MN).

St. Thomas just got done with their own three-game road trip and that did not go well. The Tommies lost all three games, two of them by double digits. Now they are unbeaten at home, winning all nine game straight up and covering all seven vs. DI opponents. But the trends don’t really support that streak continuing here as the team is 4-12 ATS when off a conference loss since joining DI three seasons ago. 

Also, these teams already met once and South Dakota State won 71-64 as a 4.5-point favorite. 

The bottom line is that I don’t think returning home is enough for St. Thomas here. They’ve never beaten SDSU in three previous tries and the road team is rolling right now, with a four-game SU win streak that has seen them cover the spread in three straight. 10*

We’re digging deep for the latest Game of the Month selection, heading to the Big South on Wednesday. Gardner Webb and USC Upstate both find themselves “middle of the pack” in the conference right now, so what’s the edge? Read on …

USC Upstate is just not good on the road. The Spartans are 2-9 this season when not playing at home and they are losing by an average of double digits. Part of that is they only average 62.9 points/game away from home.

Sure enough, USC Upstate is coming off a 64-58 loss to UNC Asheville on Saturday. 

Gardner Webb won at Winthrop over the weekend, but pushed as two-favorites. That makes it six straight games without a cover for the Runnin’ Bulldogs. But this is a buy low spot. 

The home team has double revenge from last season. Meanwhile, SC Upstate has just one win in the last four games overall and it was by a single point over the last place team in the conference. I’m laying the points. 10*

Wyoming’s luck is due to turn, sooner rather than later, and we may have seen the start of it Saturday night when the Cowboys edged Colorado State 58-57 in Laramie. Tonight, they’ll hit Vegas to face UNLV and I see this as being a pretty generous spread given the Runnin’ Rebels’ own perilous state. 

UNLV has dropped four in a row and six of seven. They have just one win by more than seven points since December 4th. So they are not an ideal candidate for the favorite role and if you need that point to be reaffirmed, know that the Rebels are 1-6 ATS laying points at home this season.

Hunter Maldanado is back for Wyoming, which is huge. After missing the loss to Air Force, Maldanado didn’t shoot the ball particularly well vs. Colorado State. But I expect a better individual effort in his second game back.

Looking at the eight-game losing streak Wyoming was on - before beating Colorado State - they fell to a number of good teams. Boise State, San Diego State, Utah State and New Mexico are the top four in the Mountain West and there were out of conference defeats at the hands of St. Mary’s and Dayton.

I like the underdog to control pace and cover the number in this one. 10*

Notre Dame is a team that has really struggled in 2022-23 as the Fighting Irish are 9-11 SU overall and don’t have a true road win to their name. Things have been even worse at the betting window where they are 3-16 against the spread. Not exactly the final season that HC Mike Brey envisioned.

But I like the Irish to at least keep it close tonight in Raleigh. For all their ATS struggles, they’ve only been a dog of this size once and that was against North Carolina. This, I believe, is the correct time to jump in and “buy low.” 

NC State hasn’t exactly been an ATS juggernaut through the years. They are a money-burning 27-47 vs. the number the last three seasons, a record which includes 10-26 at home and 15-32 in conference games. So the Wolfpack shouldn’t be trusted laying this many points, especially off the loss to UNC on Saturday. 

Keep in mind that two of NC State’s last three wins have been by four points or less. And they needed OT to beat Miami here at home. 

Notre Dame may not be on the level of some of NC State’s recent opposition, but I expect them to play hard Tuesday and cover this generous spread. Three of their last five losses have been by seven points or less. 10* 

Both teams are on long ATS losing streaks coming into “Big Monday.” Duke has failed to cover five in a row (and seven of its last eight) while Virginia Tech has failed to cover its last seven games. 

But the difference here is that Duke has still been winning games, straight up. They are 3-2 SU during the five-game ATS losing streak and 5-3 SU over the course of the 1-7 ATS slide. They just defeated #17 Miami on Saturday, 68-66. 

Virginia Tech hasn’t just failed to cover seven in a row, they’ve lost all seven of those games straight up. I understand that they’re at home tonight and eventually will cover a spread. But I don’t think the Hokies should be favored here against - what I feel - is pretty clearly a better basketball team. 

This will be the first time that Duke is an underdog this season. This despite Jeremy Roach being back in the lineup, which obviously makes the Blue Devils a better all-around basketball team.

I’m taking the points here. 10* 

The NEC (Northeast Conference) has treated me well in January! I’m 2-0 when playing this conference (which is found on the added board) including a big win with Wagner on Friday. 

Merrimack is a team that just lost to Wagner, 62-57 as a two-point favorite, on Monday. Despite that loss, the Warriors have a big-time advantage going into their next game. They’ve had nearly a week off while their opponents, St. Francis (NY), just played 48 hours ago. 

St. Francis lost 87-61 to St. Francis (PA) on Friday. They’d previously won three in a row, but all those games were close. None were decided by more than seven points.

These teams already played once this month. Merrimack won 65-53 as a 4.5-point home favorite, holding St.  Francis to 39.6% shooting.

Merrimack isn’t very good offensively, but they are holding opponents to 56.7 points/game in conference play. St. Francis has been wildly inconsistent at the offensive end this season and figures to struggle (again) here in this matchup. 10* 

It’s not too often that you can use “North Carolina” and “undervalued” in the same sentence, but I think that’s where we are at right now with the Tar Heels, who I believe are one of the Top 25 teams in America.

Over its L10 games, UNC has lost just twice, both on the road - at Pitt (by 2) and at #10 Virginia (by 6). Since losing to Virginia, Hubert Davis’ team has responded by winning twice, as they should have, as double digit favorites, beating Louisville and Boston College. 

This is a matchup where they are catching NC State in the second of two straight road games. The Wolfpack won at Georgia Tech on Tuesday, but this is the first time all season that they’re playing two straight true road games. They’ve previously lost at Miami and Clemson. Last Saturday, they needed OT to defeat Miami at home in a revenge spot.

Remember that North Carolina entered this season ranked #1 in the polls! They are far more talented than what we saw back in November.

As a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, the Tar Heels have covered five straight times. NC State is just 15-31 ATS the last three years in conference play. Lay it. 10*

We turn to the NEC (Northeast Conference) for today’s Best Bet. Believe it or not, I’ve already cashed a Game of the Month in this Conference here in January, betting Fairleigh Dickinson (1st place team) against St. Francis (NY).

Here we’ve got Wagner, laying just a short number, hosting a Central Connecticut State team that is among the very worst in the country. I have no hesitation in playing the favorite here. 

Wagner just stopped a three-game win streak earlier this week (Monday) with a 62-57 win at Merrimack as two-point underdogs. Prior to that, the Seahawks had failed to cash eight in a row. That’s why we’re able to get them at such a cheap price tonight.

Now laying points with a team that’s 1-8 ATS over its last nine lined games may seem like a dicey proposition. But, as stated earlier, C Conn St is one of the worst teams in the country. Currently #327 at KenPom (out of 363 teams), the Blue Devils have won just four games all season and three of those were at home.

In their last two games, we’ve seen C Conn State lose by scoring only 49 and then by giving 88 points. They are 1-10 SU when playing away from home and losing by a substantial margin (double digits in true road games). Lay it! 10* 

Delaware looks to halt a two-game losing skid here as it hosts William & Mary in Thursday night CAA action. The good news (for the Blue Hens) is they’re back home. The two straight losses both came on the road, at Hofstra and at Northeastern, the latter by just a single point in a game they led by 12 at the half. 

Now the Blue Hens have been without Jameer Nelson Jr for the last four games and are just 1-3 with the lone win coming against Towson. Nelson is questionable to return here, but I still like the home team regardless. Note all three losses without Nelson came on the road. 

William & Mary is also off a loss, and a humbling one at that, as they were beaten 82-54 at Charleston. Now there’s no shame in losing to a team that’s 19-1 and the “flag bearer” for your conference. But getting beat by 28 is another thing entirely. 

Going back to the start of December. W&M is 5-6 SU overall. But three of the wins came by three points or less and another was over a non-DI team. All five losses, meanwhile, were by double digits.

With or without Nelson, look for the Blue Hens to blow out the Tribe. 10* 

For this A-10 matchup, we’ve got two teams that have been covering the spread quite a bit lately. Duquesne is 7-1 ATS its last eight games, the only non-cover coming against Dayton where the Dukes were eight-point road underdogs and lost by 12. St. Bonaventure is 4-1 ATS over its last five games, also winning three of those straight up.

Obviously, the Bonnies have been the less successful team overall this year, but they come into this one sporting an 8-1 SU record at home. They are also 8-1 ATS here. The lone home loss came back on 12/13 to Florida Gulf Coast, as a 3.5-point favorite. 

Saturday saw the Bonnies defeat Richmond, 71-63, as they outscored their opponents 48-34 in the second half. 

I don’t like this spot at all for Duquesne as they are playing a third straight road game. They lost at Richmond the previous Saturday before winning at St. Joe’s last Wednesday.

Despite the rest advantage, the Dukes face a daunting task trying to win here at the Reilly Center. They opened as the favorite, something I disagree with, considering they have just one true road win. St. Bonaventure also holds teams to an average of 62.8 points and 40.2% shooting here at home. 8* 

WVU is DESPERATE for a win tonight. The Mountaineers are 0-5 to start Big 12 play, which was tied for last (until Texas Tech lost Tuesday). But they’ve been in almost every game, save for the one against Kansas. The other four conference losses have all been by seven points or less.

Saturday saw West Virginia lose by one at Oklahoma. They at least got the cover, as 3.5 point underdogs, when Seth Wilson made a “meaningless” three right before the buzzer. 

TCU is probably feeling pretty good about itself after smashing Kansas State over the weekend. But this looks like a bit of a letdown spot for a Horned Frogs team that is just 5-10 SU off a conference win the last three seasons.

West Virginia has one of the best home court advantages in the country, yet has lost two straight in Morgantown. Can’t see them losing three straight.

TCU’s three-point shooting issues (below 29% for the season) become a problem more so on the road. WVU is 9-1 SU as a favorite this year and I’m laying the short number here. 10*

Valparaiso is not having a good season. The BEACONS are just 1-7 in Missouri Valley games. But so are their Tuesday opponents, UIC. The difference here is Valpo is coming off its first conference win while UIC has lost five in a row.

The Beacons beat Evansville, who are the worst team in the MVC. But UIC isn’t much better. The Flames may play fast (84th in tempo), but they aren’t efficient on offense (325th). The defense isn’t any good either (206th). 

Five of UIC’s seven conference losses have been by at least 13 points. The two that weren’t both came at home. 

Being at home tonight should motivate Valpo. They haven’t won here since 12/21. Saturday’s win was at Evansville.

Valpo is probably in store for some positive regression in terms of three-point shooting. They are below 30% from the year. It’s hard to imagine staying that bad for a full season. 10*

FAU is 16-1 with the nation’s second longest win streak, but they have been a very lucky team so far, particularly of late. The Owls’ last five wins have all come by four points or less, four of them by that exact margin. I don’t think they can continue winning like this. 

Hosting North Texas on Saturday, Florida Atlantic trailed at the half. That was after needing overtime to get by FIU earlier in the week. 

Western Kentucky had been one of the most disappointing teams in the country, but the Hilltoppers have rallied for a three-game SU/ATS win streak, including an impressive victory at UAB. This despite HC Rick Stansbury being away from the team. 

FAU has not had an easy time winning at WKU through the years. They’ve dropped 9 of the previous 12 visits. Those were different teams obviously, but the Hilltoppers have always been a strong home team.

The only other time they’ve been a home dog this year, WKU pushed, losing by four to North Texas. This time they get the cover and I obviously give them a great shot at pulling the outright upset against a team that’s due to drop a game. 10*

One could probably make the case that BOTH of these Big 10 squads are a bit underrated at the moment. Ohio State and Rutgers each find themselves listed in the KenPom top 15, however neither are to be found in the AP or Coaches’ polls. 

Ohio State was in the Top 25 of those polls, but has dropped three straight relatively close decisions, including two when favored at home. I suppose there’s no shame in losing to Purdue, but losing as a 14.5-point favorite in Columbus to Minnesota was very bad for the Buckeyes.

The market seems to think this is a “must win” for OSU, but I’d be careful about that as Rutgers has lost just once over its last seven games (Iowa) and that was a game where the ShotQuality data suggested they probably should have won. A win here and you have to think the Scarlet Knights are in the “official” Top 25. 

What I like about this Rutgers team is their defense. They are #3 in the country in defensive efficiency, trailing only Tennessee and Houston. That’s a massive edge over Ohio State, who is 99th in defensive efficiency.

This is the second meeting of the year between these teams. Ohio State won the first, 67-66, but that was not without controversy as the Big 10 later admitted that the game-winning shot should not have counted. Look for Rutgers, who is 34-9 L43 home games, to exact revenge in this one. Lay the short number. 10* 

Gonzaga just escaped BYU with a 75-74 win, but did not cover as 6.5-point road favorites. That makes it an 0-3 ATS start to the New Year for the Zags, all of those games coming as single digit favorites on the road. 

I think it’s worth pointing out though that the three teams they just faced are all top five in the WCC.

Portland is NOT top five and that’s why the Zags are laying double digits here as they return home Saturday. The oddsmakers are expecting a blowout and so am I. 

So far Gonzaga has won all seven home games by an average of 28.1 points/game. This remains an elite offensive team that is 6th in the country in efficiency, not to mention shoots it at a 51.4% clip.

Portland is coming off a bit of a surprise result as they were two-point home underdogs at home in a 92-87 win vs. San Francisco. But the last time the Pilots hit the road, they were beaten soundly, by St. Mary’s 85-43 as 17-point underdogs. May not get quite that ugly here, but the Zags will roll. 10*

This is the ultimate buy low spot on Kentucky, who just lost outright - as a 20-point home favorite (!) - to South Carolina earlier in the week. Now the Wildcats face one of the best teams in the country (Tennessee) and are catching double digits themselves.

It’s not been a great watch in Lexington so far this season as UK has not covered a spread since before Thanksgiving. That’s 10 straight ATS losses for “those keeping score at home.” 

But how many times do you get KENTUCKY catching double digits? Not many. The most points they’ve gotten in any game all season was 4.5. That was against Alabama, another top 10 team, on the road. I don’t think that the difference between ‘Bama and Tennessee is as great as the oddsmakers’ number here makes it out to be. 

Teams have shot just 20.9% from three against Tennessee this season. That cannot possibly continue. I say that because the NCAA record for 3-point FG% defense (in a single season) is 25.3%.  

Double digit road underdogs, after losing outright as a double digit favorite, are a solid 57.5% ATS the last 30 seasons. Grab the points here. 10* 

Note the early tip time for this one (5 PM ET). After registering a big win over Penn (88-69 as 3.5 point favorites) last Friday, Cornell promptly dropped its first Ivy League game the following day (75-68 to Princeton, as three-point favorites). The Ivy League leaders are again at home this Friday and with such a short number, most are going to be calling for a bounce back. I’ve got a bit of a different read on this one.

Yale has played three close games to open conference play. They dropped the first two, 62-60 at Columbia and 81-77 at Dartmouth. Both times they were double digit favorites. Then came the first win in the Ivy League, 58-54 over Harvard last Saturday. But again the Bulldogs failed to cover, this time as 7.5-point favorites.

But this will be the first time Yale has been an underdog since facing Kentucky on 12/10. They covered the number in that game pretty easily.

It’s a much shorter number obviously vs. Cornell, but I still like Yale’s chances. They have a major edge defensively in this matchup as Cornell ranks 226th in efficiency over at KenPom. Yale is 69th.  8*

Let’s head to the Pac 12 for tonight’s College Basketball selection as USC hosts Colorado. The Trojans have already taken some early action, including from me, as I think this is a great spot for them to bounce back from back to back losses.

Both those losses occurred on the road, at Washington State and UCLA. It was a close one against their rivals, with USC even roaring back to take the lead in the final 30 seconds, but they ultimately fell two points short. But at least it was an easy cover as 11-point pups.

Before the two straight losses, USC had won seven games in a row, one of them over Auburn. Andy Enfield’s team was 11-3 overall with two of the losses coming to Tennessee and Wisconsin.

At home, don’t think the Trojans will shoot 18.5% from three again as they did vs. UCLA. 

As for Colorado, they have prevailed in seven of their last eight games. But that one loss was to Cal, on the road. I understand that the Buffaloes just beat up on Oregon and Oregon State, but this line opened too low as USC is 6-1 ATS this season against teams that have a winning record. Lay it. 10* 

Illinois State snapped a three-game losing skid its last time out, beating Evansville on the road, 69-61. Now they’ll turn around and host a Missouri State team that just had a four-game win streak ended with a 74-61 loss at Belmont.

I won’t lie and sell you that Illinois State is a “good team,” but the Redbirds’ record could certainly be a lot better. They have four losses by four points or less.  

Missouri State being a road favorite here immediately caught my attention. The Bears have had to lay points in only one true road game so far this season. While they won and covered in that spot, it was against Illinois-Chicago, who is a pretty bad team.

If this game comes down to the free throws, and it very well might (considering the tight spread), then Illinois State has a huge edge. The Redbirds are making 79.8% of their FTs (82.1% at home). Missouri State, meanwhile, is a woeful 59.1% from the charity stripe (57.1% on the road). 

ISU is a solid 13-6 ATS in its last 19 home games. Take the points. 10* 

I played VCU on Saturday, laying 5.5 against Davidson. They came through for me, winning in rather dominant fashion, 89-72. Let’s go back to the well with the Rams again.

VCU actually fell behind Davidson 10-0 after the first four minutes. But from there, it was all Rams. I don’t see them falling behind like that here against Loyola Chicago, so expect another comfortable victory. 

Loyola has now failed to cover five in a row after it was beaten 86-75 at George Mason over the weekend. That was also the Ramblers’ fourth consecutive SU loss. Drew Valentine’s team is struggling big time right now as each of those four losses were by double digits. 

Bettors can’t be happy with this Loyola team, who is 3-12 ATS in all games this season. Even getting points hasn’t really helped as they are 1-4 ATS in that role. After giving up 80 or more points in the previous game (as is the case here), the Ramblers are 0-4 ATS this season.

Give me VCU and it’s 52nd ranked defense. Loyola is outside the top 200 defensively. Lay the short number. 10*

Let’s head to the MAAC Sunday afternoon where Manhattan will look to get back on track hosting Niagara. The Jaspers have lost three straight, the last two coming at home. They were slight favorites (-2) to beat Canisius earlier in the week, but went down 64-57. I don’t see this team losing three in a row at home, so as a dog, they are my lone College Hoops play for Sunday.

Now Niagara comes in riding a four-game win streak, the last two coming as short underdogs. The Purple Eagles beat Rider and Fairfield to start 2023, the latter on the road. But just like I cannot see Manhattan losing three straight at home, I can’t see Niagara making it five wins in a row.  

Let’s point out that Thursday’s win at Fairfield was an OT game for Niagara and they really benefited from horrible shooting by the opposition, who went 31.8% overall from the floor and 2 of 16 from three. I don’t see Manhattan shooting that poorly here.

There have not been many wins so far for the 4-10 Jaspers. But being underdogs here should lead to a sense of “disrespect” as I believe the home team feels it can certainly win this one.

Also worth pointing out that Niagara is the 3rd luckiest team in the country per KenPom. They are 5-0 in games decided by seven points or less so far, which does not even include the overtime game on Thursday. The only other time that the Purple Eagles were road favorites this season, they lost outright to New Jersey Tech 62-53. Take the points here. (Probably won’t need them though). 10* 

Akron hasn’t had much success on the road this season, but the Zips have won six of seven overall and tonight I expect them to go into Ball State, and at the very least, cover the number.

Ball State has won six in a row themselves. The Cardinals opened MAC play by winning at Toledo, 90-83 as an 8.5 point underdog. Coming off a win like that is usually a good time to fade a team. I just can’t see BSU matching the kind of shooting we saw from them in the last game (52.5% overall, 11 of 22 from three). 

The underdog has a big edge defensively in this game, ranking 103rd in efficiency while the favorite is just 235th in that department.

Akron has also had Ball State’s number, winning and covering all four meetings the last two seasons. Every win has been by at least nine points. 

I just think that the better team is getting points in this one. Ball State is 1-3 ATS this year after scoring 80 or more points the previous game. 

Two teams looking to make their mark in the West Coast Conference square off late Thursday as San Diego welcomes in Pacific.

San Diego (8-8 SU, 5-9 ATS) is off a big win as 11-point underdogs at San Francisco. This will be the Toreros first time playing at the Jenny Craig Pavilion since an 84-58 win over UC San Diego back on December 12th. They went 2-3 SU/ATS on the recently completed road swing.

Pacific (8-9 SU, 6-9 ATS) is also coming off an outright win as they beat Loyola Marymount 78-72 as a 4.5-point underdog. But that was at home. I don’t see a second straight upset win in the cards for the Tigers.

San Diego is averaging over 80 points/game at home this season. They are #59 in the country in offensive efficiency as per KenPom.

The defensive numbers aren’t great for the Toreros, but I also don’t think Pacific can take advantage. This is a Tigers team that lost to a non-DI school (CS-East Bay) at home last month. They also lost by 20 at home to BYU. Lay the points here. 8*

Last month, Fairleigh Dickinson gave a truly horrific effort against Richmond, actually trailing at the half 42-9! The Knights then lost their next game, 82-73 to Queens U, one of the new D-I programs this season. But they battled back and posted consecutive wins to end 2022, first beating Merrimack 71-63 and then Centenary 99-50.

Certainly, those wins won’t impress anyone, but it is not as if Wednesday’s opposition, St. Francis (NY), is anything to be concerned about. This is not exactly the marquee matchup for Thursday College Hoops. FDU is rated #328 at KenPom while SFNY is #348. 

FDU is one of the worst defensive teams in the country, but has the edge offensively and I think their tempo (70th fastest in the country) will bother St. Francis.

In their last game, St. Francis lost to Central Connecticut State, another of the worst teams in the country. Actually, they didn’t just lose, they got beat by 22! 

The fact that this is a revenge game for FDU (five straight losses to St. Francis) puts them over the top for me. Homecourt advantage won’t mean much on a Thursday afternoon. 10*

Four games into conference play and Valparaiso is still looking for its first Missouri Valley win. The Crusaders host Northern Iowa on Wednesday. I sense there will be a real sense of desperation here for the home team and thus will back them plus the points.

Valpo is coming off a dreadful shooting night, one in which it made just 29.5% of its FG attempts against Indiana State. They ended up losing 68-50. Coming off an embarrassing effort such as that, at home no less, you’ve got to expect an inspired effort here. 

Northern Iowa is playing its second straight true road game, the first time that situation has come up for them in 2022-23. The Panthers won at Illinois State on New Year’s Eve, 66-60, a slight upset as they came into that game as one-point underdogs. Prior to that win, they’d dropped four of six.

This is a game flying under the radar on Wednesday’s CBB slate, but again, I like the situation for Valpo, who had scored 70 or more in each of its previous four home games. The Crusaders are due for better shooting after that abysmal last performance.  They are 13-5 ATS when coming off a game where they scored 60 points or less.

UNI, on the other hand, is 4-10 ATS after holding its previous opponent to 60 or less. That includes 0-4 this season. Take the points. 10* 

Both teams are coming off close losses on the road to open Big XII play. In each instance, the loss occurred in the state of Kansas. West Virginia lost to Kansas State 82-76 in overtime (pick ‘em game) while Oklahoma State lost 69-67 (as 10-point underdogs) at Kansas. 

The difference between these teams is that WVU is on an 0-3 ATS losing streak while OK State is 3-0 ATS its last three games. I look for these streaks to end Monday.

WVU had won four straight games before losing in Manhattan. Oklahoma State is only 3-3 SU over its last six games. I don’t think that the Mountaineers should be underdogs here, even on the road.

With this game likely to be pretty low-scoring (total is currently 139.5 - and it wouldn’t surprise me if it stayed Under), that’s just another reason to take the points. 

I’ve got West VIrginia rated as the better team. Oklahoma State is 1-5 ATS the last six times it has been a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. 10*

I’m taking Dartmouth here, despite their five consecutive losses. Three of the five have been by single digits and the last four on the road. The Big Green now return home for the first time in a month, hosting a Cornell team that’s 10-3 and on a four-game win streak. Line is inflated here.

When off three consecutive SU losses, Dartmouth is 8-1 ATS. That includes covering the last two games.

As you may have surmised, the Big Green haven’t shot well during the 5-game skid. I’d say 35.6% is abnormally poor though. We should see that number start to go up at home though as they have a 49.5 FG% here for the year. They also are holding teams to 39.9%

Yes, Cornell can score and is very good at the offensive end. But they are not sound defensively, yielding 78.7 points/game away from home. They are 254th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency.

While I’m not so confident to predict an outright win here for the Big Green, they should easily cover at home. Take the points. 10* 

San Diego State, the presumed favorite to win the Mountain West this year, has been termed “disappointing” thus far, even though the Aztecs have a fine record and their defensive efficiency rating (13th) is among the best in the country. 

I had to settle for a ‘push’ when I played the Aztecs, as 16-point favorites, against Air Force earlier in the week. This time, as they are set to hit the conference road for the first time, we’re getting a far lower number and one that I believe they’ll cover easily. 

UNLV is in a bit of freefall as the Runnin’ Rebels have lost two of three following a 10-0 start. Both losses were close, 75-73 to San Francisco and 75-72 to San Jose State, the latter being a game that went to OT. But the Rebels are a team that struggles to score in the half court. That will be a big problem here. 

San Diego State should control tempo this afternoon. I think UNLV struggles at both ends of the court here. Since it’s last loss, SDSU has won three straight by 16+ points. 

Just think the line is a little low in this one. Lay the points. 10*

After a couple of hiccups against Illinois and Baylor, certainly excusable losses (especially since they were played on a neutral floor), UCLA has rattled off eight consecutive victories, most of them by double digits. I’ll look for them to continue rolling tonight when they visit the Palouse. 

Washington State has dropped two in a row for the fourth time this season. The Cougars are just 5-8 on the season. Now, the three previous times they’ve been off back to back losses previously, they’ve delivered a win. But those wins came against Eastern Washington, Northern Kentucky and George Washington. In every one of those games, they were the favorites.

UCLA has dominated this Pac 12 rivalry through the years, winning 40 of the past 47 matchups. 

The eighth ranked Bruins have eight wins by 10 or more over the past month, including beating Kentucky (in New York) and a 27-point thrashing of Maryland in a true road game. This should be a cakewalk by comparison.

The biggest problem for Wazzu in this game is that they are turning the ball over on 21.2% of all possessions, which is 292nd nationally. UCLA excels at turning its opponents over, doing so on 25.3% of all possessions, 11th best in the country. Lay the points here. 10*

Many will view this as a “bounce back” or “get right” game for Iowa after they suffered an inexplicable 92-83 loss to Eastern Illinois last week, a game where the Hawkeyes were 31-point home favorites. I am far less convinced that any such “bounce back” takes place.

Nebraska is a team that has already taken Purdue, the class of the Big 10, into overtime this year. That game was played right in Lincoln. The Cornhuskers might be considered towards the bottom of the conference pecking order, but they are still a respectable 89th in the country over at KenPom.

Iowa is still soft defensively, ranking outside the top 100 in adjusted efficiency. So Nebraska should be able to put up points here. Particularly on the inside as Iowa lets teams shoot over 50% from inside the arc. For the season, 54% of the Cornhuskers’ FG attempts are two-pointers.

Overall, Iowa has lost four of seven since a 5-0 start. Something to keep in mind is that Eastern Illinois had just one D-I win prior to stunning the Hawkeyes. That’s a very concerning result if you’re Fran McCaffery. 

Nebraska has balanced scoring with six players averaging between 9 and 14 points/game. Five players scored in double figures in the last game, a 75-65 win over Queens. Take the points in this Big 10 matchup. 10*

At 9-4 overall, Air Force is a lot better than usual this year. The Flyboys have even covered seven in a row. But this is a spot to sell high on the Falcons as they face San Diego State, the class of the Mountain West.

The Aztecs aren’t defending as well this year as we’re accustomed to seeing, but are still 14th in the country in efficiency and that’s good enough for me. They should have beaten Arkansas (blew a double digit lead) and also have a win over Ohio State on the non-conference slate.

The offense has been better for SDSU as well and that’s while not shooting all that well from three. Air Force is due for some serious regression when it comes to three-point defense (opponents only hitting 24% against them) so this is a game I’ve targeted for the Aztecs to get hot from deep. 

So far, Air Force has played one of the weakest schedules in the entire country. San Diego State will be the best team they’ve faced yet.

This number will scare some away, but not me as the Aztecs have won their last two games by a total of 50 points. They are also 7-0 at home with an average margin of victory of +18.0.  Lay it. 10*

Gonna fade this Chicago State team again. On Monday, we only needed to lay -6.5 with Illinois State, who covered fairly easily in a 66-52 win. Here, it’s a big number obviously, but we’re also getting Minnesota out of the Big 10. This game won’t be close.

As mentioned in Monday’s writeup, Chicago State is in the midst of a long road trip. It began 11 days ago and this will now be the fifth game in a row away from home. The previous four have all been losses with the final margins getting wider. The Cougars have just one win in their last 10 games. 

But of course, we’re not just betting on a win here from Minnesota, we need them to win by margin. The Golden Gophers may be one of the weaker Big 10 teams this year, but they are still eons better than Chicago State. The respective KenPom ratings of these two teams are 181 and 327. You know who’s who. 

Minnesota had lost five in a row before picking up a convincing 72-56 win over Arkansas Pine-Bluff last week. What’s significant about that win is that Ark Pine Bluff has a comparable KenPom rating to Chicago State. It was the Gophers’ first game against a non-quality opponent in some time, which partially explains their SU record.

Chicago State has to be gassed playing its fifth road game in 11 days. Meanwhile, Minnesota has been off for over a week. That’s a huge situational edge to the superior home team. Lay it! 10* 

Early College Hoops action on Wednesday as Davidson hosts Northeastern. Both teams are coming off losses. Northeastern fell at IL-Chicago, 81-73 as a 2.5 point underdog. Davidson lost 69-61 to Purdue, but easily stayed within the number as 14.5 point underdogs.

Coming off a high-profile game against the #1 team in the country, this is a tricky spot for Davidson to be laying double digits. It being an afternoon game doesn’t help and could add to a potential “sleepy” effort. Following this game, the Wildcats are off for a week.

Northeastern is 0-5 so far in true road games and is 3-7 overall. They have not shot well at all this year, making just 40% overall and 30% from three. But we saw those numbers go up against UIC and they should continue to do so. 

I also do not believe that opponents will continue to shoot only 29% from three against Davidson. 

Nine of Davidson’s 11 games have been decided by single digits, including the last seven. I just don’t see the Wildcats winning this one by double digits. Grab those points. 10*

There were different results for these two squads in the respective Big East openers. Xavier hung 102 on hapless Georgetown Friday night while Seton Hall lost at home (71-67) to Providence. 

It looks like a big number here, but I’m laying it with the Musketeers, whose three losses this year have been to Indiana, Duke and Gonzaga. All those games were close, decided by seven or less. Seton Hall has five losses and has been blown out a few times, losing by double digits to Iowa, Oklahoma and Kansas. 

The Pirates also lost to Siena. I just don’t see them scoring enough to stay within this number tonight. They are averaging just 63.5 points/game away from home so far. That’s not going to cut it against a Xavier team that’s putting up 85.3 in its gym. 

In addition to that, this is a double revenge game for Xavier, who dropped both meetings with Seton Hall last season.

Xavier has won its last six games coming into tonight and has the ninth most efficient offense in the country per KenPom. The worry if you’re Seton Hall is trying to keep up with the pace the Musketeers like to play at. Too much offense from the home team here. Lay it. 10*

Illinois State hasn’t had a ton to celebrate over the first month of the season, but this is a game where the Redbirds should roll. They are matched up with Chicago State, who (as per usual) is one of the worst teams in the country. Expect the home team to roll tonight in Normal.

ISU was on a three-game SU win streak and had covered four in a row before facing Ball State on Saturday. That game was played at a neutral site (Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis) and the Redbirds got victimized by a hot-shooting team as Ball State made 56.7% of its field goal attempts.

You can’t expect that from Chicago State, who is shooting just 41.5% as a team for the season. The Cougars have covered four in a row, but have lost the last three SU and this will be their fourth straight road game over the last nine days. That’s a bad spot to be in for a team that’s won only three times all season and one of those victories came against IUPUI, the worst D-I team in the country.

Chicago State has played 10 road games and lost them all, by an average of nearly 15 points/game. We don’t even need that margin here. 

After losing its first two games of the season here in Normal, both by three points, Illinois State has won its last three home games including a nice little upset of Belmont. The Redbirds should win easily tonight. Lay the points. 10* 

In the final game on the board, I look for Baylor to roll tonight against Washington State. This is being played at the American Airlines Arena (home of NBA’s Mavs), so not a true home game for the Bears, but we know which team will have more crowd support here.

Since a humiliating 26-point loss at the hands of Marquette, Baylor has beaten Gonzaga and predictably rolled Tarleton State. They remain in the top 15 at KenPom and are a top five offensive team.

Washington State has lost three of four, including close games to Utah (in overtime) and UNLV (who was still undefeated at the time). So the Cougs are getting some respect from the oddsmakers here. But not from the public, who has already bet this number up a couple points.

I agree with the line move. Wazzu turns the ball over way too much and that plays right into the hands of Baylor, who is 24th in the country in turnover percentage and 36th in steal percentage. 

Probably going to be too much offense from the Bears as well. They average 84.6 points/game while Wazzu only averages 71.6. Really that second number is inflated. The Cougs have had three big offensive games so far (96, 82 and 83) but otherwise haven’t topped 70. They had just 65 in the OT loss at Utah. 8* 

Abilene Christian comes into this game as the road favorite and has already taken significant money against a Cal State Bakersfield team that I’d have little faith in. Our side comes in having won four of five, including an 84-63 beatdown of Texas A&M-Commerce last Saturday.

CS-Bakersfield plays slow (341st in adjusted tempo) and is also one of the worst offensive teams in the entire country (342nd). There’s just not much to like about the Roadrunners right now. In their last three games vs. D-I opponents, they have failed to score more than 54 points. This will be their first time taking the court in 11 days. So on top of everything, they could be rusty.

Abilene Christian averages 76.4 points while outscoring opponents by 10.6 points per game. I just don’t think this spread is large enough, even with the Wildcats being the road team. 10*

A lot of people are probably going to want to jump on Creighton here as the Bluejays have dropped five in a row, the last three all coming as favorites. But Ryan Kalkbrenner remains questionable due to illness and this Marquette team is no joke. Therefore, now is NOT the time to be jumping on the Bluejays.

While Creighton has dropped five straight, Marquette has suffered only three losses all year. All three were by five points or less, to teams ranked in the Top 40 at KenPom: Purdue, Miss State and Wisconsin. The last loss (Wisconsin) was an overtime game. The Golden Eagles are coming off a 79-64 win at Notre Dame on Sunday. I played them there and will do so again today.

Against Notre Dame, the Golden Eagles won despite shooting only 26% from three. Winning at South Bend is not easy, especially when the visitor isn’t making threes. So tip your cap to Marquette there. Overall, this team is shooting very well this season; at nearly 50% from the field. Creighton does not defend the three-point line particularly well, ranking 240th in the country in doing so. 

This is a huge revenge spot for Marquette, who has lost the last four meetings with Creighton. 

Even if Kalkbrenner does play, don’t expect him to be that effective. At 7-4 ATS on the season, Marquette has been beating oddsmakers’ expectations and they are a strong home team (just two losses in the calendar year at Fiserv Forum). Lay the points. 10*

Santa Clara is going to be looking to reverse some trends here, namely the fact they are 0-5 ATS their last five games overall and 0-6 ATS the L6 meetings with tonight’s opponent, UC Irvine (also 0-6 straight up!)

Now while the Broncos haven’t been covering, they’ve been (mostly) winning. Their only SU loss since Thanksgiving came here at home to San Jose State, 75-64, as an 8.5-point favorite here at home. 

They bounced back though by defeating Portland State 78-75, but as you already know did not cover the number. The Broncos were favored to win that game by 9.5 points.

Tonight, there really is no worry about winning and not covering as it’s a much shorter number vs. UC Irvine, a team that had dropped two in a row before winning at South Dakota on Saturday. I know it’s a shorter turnaround (between games) for Santa Clara, but I like them to get the job done tonight.

I do not think UC Irvine can continue to shoot 41% from three-point land nor do I believe their opponents will continue to shoot at a 28.8% clip from behind the arc. Lay the short number here. 10*

It was a rough start to the season in Eugene as, at one point, Oregon was down to just six scholarship players. After six games, they were 2-4 straight up. But the ship seems to have been righted as the Ducks have covered four in a row, winning three of those straight up (only SU loss was to UCLA).

I expect the home team to win big tonight against UC Riverside, who will be playing its third straight road game and second in the last four days. The Highlanders beat Idaho 76-74 on Sunday, however did not cover the spread as six-point favorites. They are outclassed in this matchup.

So far, UC Riverside has faced two opponents inside the KenPom top 100, Colorado and Creighton. They lost those two games by a combined 45 points. Another double digit loss is on the way.

Oregon will enjoy a nice size advantage in tonight’s matchup. In fact, by being the tallest team in the country, they enjoy a size advantage in every matchup.  UC Riverside does not hit enough threes to counteract that. When facing D-I opponents, the Highlanders are barely hitting 30% from downtown.

The Ducks are 4-1 ATS as a favorite this season and allowing only 59.3 points/game at home. Their resurgence continues here. 10* 

Two teams trending in very different directions meet Monday night in Las Vegas with Arizona State taking on Creighton. 

The unranked Sun Devils have won seven in a row (6-1 ATS) since taking their only loss of the season, which was by a single point, in overtime, to Texas Southern. While the loss of Marcus Bagley (“stepped away from the team”) has hurt ASU a bit offensively, this team gets it done with defense. They are 17th in defensive efficiency at KenPom and top 10 in both 2-point and 3-point FG% defense. 

Meanwhile, #21 Creighton is reeling right now, having dropped four in a row after a 6-0 start. Worth monitoring is the status of Ryan Kalkbrenner, who missed the last game due to an illness. Without Kalkbrenner, the Bluejays lost 83-80 to BYU. His replacement in the starting lineup, Frederick King, had just four points and no rebounds in 18 minutes. BYU dominated them in the paint, 42-24. 

Even if Kalkbrenner is able to go tonight, I still like Arizona State. It’s pretty darn impressive - at least to me - that they are 9-1 straight up despite shooting only 30% from three-point range. Sooner or later, the three-point shooting will improve and then the Sun Devils will be even tougher to stop. 

Based on how this line has moved, it looks like Kalkbrenner is going to play. But still, I am taking the points in what should be a close game. Though three of Creighton’s four straight losses ended up close (five points or less), they really didn’t look good in any of them. ASU’s defense carries them to another cover and possibly another SU win. 10* 

Marquette’s only game over the last eight days was a 90-78 win over NC Central. They did not cover the large 19.5-point spread. Prior to that the Golden Eagles turned in a monster performance against Baylor (won 96-70) but then lost in overtime to Wisconsin (80-77). They come into Sunday at 7-3 SU, 5-4-1 ATS overall.

Pretty similar deal with Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish have played just once over the last eight days and they failed to cover in a tighter than expected 81-75 victory over Boston U. Before that they upset Michigan State, then lost outright to Syracuse, both here at home. 

So it seems like a pretty even matchup Sunday at 4:30 ET on ESPN2. But it’s pretty telling that Marquette is favored. They are the better team. In terms of offensive efficiency, the teams have pretty similar ratings (28th for Marquette, 26th for ND). But defensively, Marquette is far ahead (67 vs. 174). 

Look for the Golden Eagles to do damage from three-point land. That’s where they get roughly one-third of their scoring. They average 9.3 makes per game. The Notre Dame defense is allowing 35% three-point shooting for the season, which is outside the Top 200.

Let’s go back to that final score vs. Boston U. ND won 81-75. The Irish are 0-3 ATS this season after a game where they scored 80 or more points. They gave up 46 points in the second half to the Terriers. Marquette was almost up 30 in the second half of their last game. 10*