This is a 10* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Washington Nationals.

The clear talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the small return here. Good news for Nats fans (and us!), is the expected return of slugger Bryce Harper to the Washington lineup. Harper has recovered from a broken left thumb by hitting three home runs in a rehab game at Double-A Harrisburg on Saturday, the all-star sat out Sunday, which is signalling his return to action tonight. The home side sends Jordan Zimmermann (5-4, 2.95 ERA) to the mound; Zimmermann is 2-2 with a minuscule 1.18 ERA in five outings this month, most recently giving up two runs, while striking out nine over six innings in his latest outing on Tuesday in Milwaukee. The Nationals come in with plenty of momentum as well after sweeping a Saturday doubleheader vs. the Cubbies and also come in rested after having Sunday off. Note that Zimmermann is 4-0 with a very respectable 1.42 ERA in six career starts vs. Colorado, including 2-0 with a minute 0.42 record in three matchups in front of the home town crowd. The Rockies come to town having won just twice in their last 13 games, but off a 10-4 victory over Milwaukee last night; suffice it to say, I expect an immediate return to mediocrity this evening. The visitors counter with Yohan Flande (0-0, 7.20 ERA) who will make his second major league start; note that Flande gave up four runs, six hits and a walk over five frames in a 9-6 loss to the Cards on Wednesday. A plehtora of different factors have collided, making the Nationals on the RUN-LINE the sharp wager in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Seattle Mariners.

The clear talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the “pick-em” price. Seattle will be eager to get untracked after yesterday’s listless 5-0 loss to the Indians in which Kyle Seager managed only a single. Note though that the M’s had totaled 27 runs while hitting .314 with eight home runs over their previous four games. Seattle has to be liking its chances for a bounce back by sending ace Felix Hernandez (9-2, 2.24 ERA) to the hill; Hernandez has gone 5-1 with a 1.48 ERA in his last eight starts and has set a franchise record over that stretch for consecutive starts of at least seven frames while giving up two earned runs or less. It comes as no surprise to learn that Hernandez ranks among the league’s leaders in several categories, including ERA, strikeouts, and innings. Most recently “The King” gave up two runs and six hits over seven innings in his team’s 12-3 win over Boston on Monday. Note that Hernandez is 6-5 with a respectable 3.25 ERA in 14 career starts vs. the Tribe, but he’s 3-0 with a tiny 1.47 ERA in five meetings vs. them at Safeco. The visitors counter with TJ House (0-1, 4.88 ERA) who is filling in for Justin Masterson; this will be House’s first MLB appearance since June 14th when he gave up two runs over 5 1/3’s innings, not factoring into a 3-2 win at Boston. House is 0-1 with a 5.06 ERA in his five starts. The combination of looking to atone for yesterday’s poor overall effort and having Hernandez on the hill makes the value play the Mariners on the RUN LINE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Kansas City Royals.

AAA Sports Has: +1.5 -160

The LA Angels have won six-straight at home, but I think will stumble here in the opener of this three-game set in Kansas City; in a contest that I feel will be decided late or in extras, I have no problem laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The visitors send rookie Matt Shoemaker (5-1, 3.42 ERA) to the hill; Shoemaker is 5-0 with a 3.00 ERA in seven starts, giving up one run in 7 2/3’s innings in a 5-2 win over Texas on Sunday. The book is still out on Shoemaker though in my opinion, the sample size is still small and there’s no question that he’s going to have a much tougher time on the road vs. the hard-hitting Royals; note that Shoemaker faced KC on May 24th and would give up three runs over five innings in a 7-4 defeat. After dominating to start June, the Royals have come back down to Earth, they fell for the sixth time in seven games in a 5-4 loss to the Dodgers on Wednesday. KC will counter with Jason Vargas (7-3, 3.16 ERA) who faced the Angels on May 25th, receiving a no-decision in giving up one run and three hits while walking five over 6 1/3’s innings of a 4-3 loss. Vargas has now gone 3-1 with a very respectable 2.27 ERA over his last six starts. To say the “revenge factor” comes into play here would be an understatement, LA has won six of seven in this series and five in a row at Kaufmann Stadium. But I think that ends tonight, the Angels are overachieving, the Royals are under-performing, I expect the home side to keep this one close enough to at the very least escape with the RUN LINE cover.

AAA Sports

This is a 5* “BIG-CHALK RUN-LINE CHOKE-OUT” on the LA Dodgers.

The Dodgers are rolling and I believe can keep this one competitive enough to at the very least sneak away with the ATS cover. The home side sends James Sheilds (8-3, 3.70 ERA) to the mound; Sheilds is 5-0 since losing to Detroit on May 2nd, but there is some room to read between the lines as he’s posted a pedestrian 5.54 ERA in the process. Also note that he’s given up nine home runs over his last six starts. Most recently Shields gave up five runs and nine hits, including two homers, over seven frames in his team’s 7-5 setback to Seattle on Friday. But as mentioned off the top, LA is rolling and I think will continue that surge tonight as it’s won eight of its last 11. The visitors counter with Dan Haren (7-4, 3.62 ERA) who is 4-0 with a very respectable 2.45 ERA in seven starts at Kauffman Stadium. Haren is 2-0 with a 4.15 ERA in his last three starts overall, most recently giving up three runs over 5 2/3’s innings vs. the Friars on Friday. Kansas City has come back down to Earth after its big 10-game win streak and I think will once again have its hands full vs. the highly competent Haren. Lay the price for the Dodgers on the RUN-LINE!

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “RUN-LINE PUNISHER” on the Seattle Mariners.

While I do feel the outright win is definitely not out of the question here, in a contest which will likely be decided late or in extras, I have no problem laying the reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The Royals have now lost two straight after yesterday’s 7-5 setback to Seattle, in which slugger Robinson Cano got two hits and two RBIs; note that Cano is batting .419 with 15 RBIs during a 21-game road hitting streak. Kansas City is just 4 for 22 with runners in scoring position over its last three games and sends Jason Vargas (7-2, 3.25 ERA) to the hill today; Vargas has been sharp of late, he’s 3-0 with a respectable 2.31 ERA in his last five starts. The visitors counter with Chris Young (6-4, 3.40 ERA) who bounced back from a couple of tough starts to throw six shutout innings in a 5-1 win over the Padres on Monday. Young has enjoyed success vs. Kansas City; Vargas has enjoyed success vs. his former team as well. I like Young to duel his counterpart into the latter frames and definitely feel that the the value in this one is Seattle on the “run-line”.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Atlanta Braves.

I played the Braves yesterday and unforutnately Julio Teheran was unable to deliver the goods. I think the visitors can bounce back today though and am expecting a convincing effort. Atlanta sends Ervin Santana (5-2, 3.69 ERA) to the hill; Santana started the season strong, fell off for a bit, but is coming off a resurgent outing, giving up one unearned run over seven innings, getting saddled with a no-decision when his team lost 4-3 in 11 innings in Arizona on Saturday. Santana is 2-0 with a 5.59 ERA in three career starts vs. Colorado. The Rockies haven’t won back to back games in over three weeks, they’ve lost 13 of 16 and have been hit hard by the injury bug. And that’s bad news for Jhoulys Chacin (0-4, 5.35 ERA) who gave up three runs over seven innings in his team’s eventual 5-4 win over the Dodgers in 10 frames in his last start. Note that Chacin has been particularly inept vs. Atlanta in three career starts, he’s 0-2 with a 6.23 ERA. I like the Braves to bounce back in this matchup and will lay the 1.5 runs for the healthy return. Play on Atlanta “run line”.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Minnesota Twins.

I have no problem laying the reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance here. Toronto was shut out for the third time in four games yesterday. The Jays have mustered just a .186 average, going 2 for 22 with runners in scoring position during the slide. The Jays send Marcus Stroman (3-0, 5.40 ERA) to the hill; Stroman has given up two runs with 13 K’s over 12 innings as a starter, but in my opinion the book is still out on the rookie hurler. Stroman would be wise to be wary of the Twins’ Brian Dozier who has homered on both of his hits in this series while driving in three scores; Dozier is 11 for 33 with three dingers, six RBIs and nine runs in his last nine games. The visitors counter with Phil Hughes (6-2, 3.46 ERA) who is coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up season highs of five runs and three homers over six innings in Friday’s 5-4 loss to Houston. No need to hit the panic button though if your a Hughes fan, note that the veteran was 6-0 with a 1.99 ERA over his previous eight starts and he’s looked extremely adept on the road this season. Momentum is a funny thing, and I believe the Twins can carry over yesterday’s momentum and while I do feel the outright win isn’t out of the question, in a contest which will likely be decided late or in extras, I’m recommending playing Minnesota on the “run line”.

AAA Sports

This is a 5* “BIG-CHALK RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Miami Marlins.

While the outright win isn’t out of the question in this one, in a game which I believe will be decided late or in extras, I have no problem laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The injured home side sends struggling starter Colby Lewis (4-4, 5.77 ERA) to the hill; Lewis is 0-2 with a deplorable 10.43 ERA over his last three starts and is also 0-3 with a disgusting 12.83 ERA in his last three interleague outings. Lewis has given up at least five runs in three of his past four starts overall with an 8.44 ERA over his last two. The Fish counter with Tom Koehler (5-5, 3.33 ERA) who has won two straight on the road, most recently giving up three runs over five innings in a 5-4 win over Tampa Bay on Wednesday. Many of the Rangers’ sluggers are sitting with injury, this is a prime opportunity for Koehler and the Rangers to take advantage of; play on Miami on the “run line”.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Tampa Bay Rays.

Tampa Bay is in a huge hole in the AL East, but with its ace coming to the mound, I think the struggling Rays are going to win big in this favorable pitching match-up. Mariners’ ace Felix Hernandez struck out 15 in yesterday’s 5-0 win. As good as they’ve been, both at the plate and on the mound, I think this sets up as a letdown spot for the Mariners, especially facing a determined David Price (4-5, 4.03 ERA) who is 1-0 with a very respectable 2.81 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in two career starts vs. them. The visitors counter with Erasmo Ramirez (1-4, 6.82 ERA) who has been the very definition of a “gas can’ since returning from Triple-A Tacoma, most recently giving up five runs and eight hits over three innings in his team’s eventual 7-5 win in Atlanta (note that Ramirez is allowing opponents a .304 average). The clear talent discrepancy on the mound, coupled with the desperation that Tampa will be playing with, in my opinion abolustely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Atlanta Braves.

I feel the clear talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the healthy return in this match-up. Julio Teheran (5-3, 1.83 ERA) has the third lowest ERA in all of baseball, his 83 2/3’s innings and impressive 0.93 WHIP are among the Senior Circuit’s leaders. Teheran has won three straight, giving up just two runs over his last 22 1/3’s frames of work, limiting his opposition to a paltry .185 batting average. Most recently Teheran gave up two runs over 7 1/3’s innings in a  3-2 win at Miami on Saturday; in his most recent start vs. the Diamondbacks back on June 28th he’d strike out 10 over six innings in a 3-0 win. The last place Diamondbacks are coming off a series sweep, but I think will regress here vs. Teheran; Arizona counters with Brandon McCarthy (1-7, 5.20 ERA). McCarthy is 0-4 with a horrible 5.36 ERA in seven home starts and is 0-2 with a ballooned 6.04 ERA in his last five overall. McCarthy has given up 10 runs and 18 hits over 11 innings spanning his last two starts. All signs point to a convincing Braves victory, lay the 1.5 runs.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Oakland Athletics.

The A’s won 5-2 in yesterday’s series opener and behind what I believe to be the superior starter on the mound, look for it win big once again today. The home side is struggling at the plate, just ten runs in its last five games and sends Vidal Nuno (1-2, 5.48 ERA) to the hill; Nuno gave up four runs over 6 2/3’s innings in Friday’s 6-1 loss to Minnesota. The visitors counter with Jesse Chavez (4-3, 2.78 ERA) who is looking to avoid a third straight start; Chavez has given up seven runs and 16 hits over 11 1/3’s innings over his last two but he’s been great on the road, going 2-1 with a 2.48 ERA away from friendly confines. This is a prime opportunity for Chavez and the A’s to take advantage of and I expect them to do just that; play on Oakland on the “run line”.

AAA Sports

This is a 5* “BIG-CHALK RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Kansas City Royals.

While I do think that the Royals’ James Shields is the superior starter in this match-up and while I do believe the outright straight-up win isn’t out of the question, I feel a lot more comfortable laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance in a contest which is likely to be decided late or in extras. Shields (6-3, 3.36 ERA) has struggled a bit over his last two starts but now faces a Cardinals team which has struggled all year with consistency at the plate; I think this is a great bounce back spot for him. Note that Sheild sports a very respeactable 4-1, 3.06 ERA road record this year. Shields will be opposed by Jamie Garcia (1-0, 4.12 ERA) who gave up three runs over seven innings to the Giants in a no-decision on Thursday; the Cards would go on to lose 6-5. Garcia has looked decent since returning from injury, but the book is still out on him in my opinion, I think the Royals can definitely capitalize tonight. As stated off the top, this is a very winnable game for Shields, but playing in St. Louis is always a tough task. Lay the price for the 1.5 runs.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Chicago White Sox.

No need to overanalyze this one, in my opinion the clear talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the small return. The home side turns to ace Chris Sale (4-0, 1.73 ERA) to help salvage the finale of this three game set. Sale is 19-10 with a very respectable 2.62 ERA in 35 career starts in front of the home town crowd and has allowed just one run and two hits in his last 16 innings there. The Friars are among the lowest-scoring teams in the league and I think they’ll return to mediocrity here vs. a pitcher of Sale’s caliber. Sale’s counterpart is Eric Stults (2-5, 4.92 ERA) who gave up three runs over six innings in his team’s 4-3 win over Arizona on Tuesday. A great situational play in my opinion, motivation combined with the superior starter adds up to a “run line” play on the White Sox.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the New York Yankees.

I like the Yanks to bounce back in a big way here after yesterday’s 7-1 setback. Note that New York had won four of its previous five coming into that contest; and note that Minnesota had dropped six of seven. An immediate return to mediocrity is imminent with Kevin Correia (2-6, 6.34 ERA) taking the mound for the visitors; Correia has been poor this year but has also been the victim of poor run support, receiving two or fewer in three of his last four trips to the hill. New York looks to get untracked against this confirmed gas can, and sends Masahiro Tanaka (7-1. 2.29 ERA) to the mound to counter; Tanaka is coming off a 7-1 win over the White Sox on Sunday, going 6 2/3’s innings, giving up one run and five hits while striking out six and walking two. Good new for us, the Yanks’ Kelly Johnson is expected back in the lineup and he has five home runs in 28 career at bats vs. Correia along with a .321 slugging percentage. New York also got back the services of first baseman Mark Texeira yesterday; Texeira is hitting .374 with 20 dingers and 58 RBIs in 66 career games vs. the Twins. Behind Tanaka, look for the home side to score early and often; play on New York on the “run line”.

AAA Sports

This is a 7* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Pittsburgh Pirates.

No need to overanalyze this one, this is a situation that I keep my eyes open for every season, and that is: I love playing against pitchers who are coming off of perfect games or no hitters and I especially love going against veteran pitchers in this situation. The Dodgers’ Josh Beckett (3-1, 2.43 ERA) is having a resurgent season and it all culminated in his last start, throwing a no-hitter in a 6-0 road win over the Phillies. Note that Beckett hasn’t won four-straight games since 2007. It’s been a whirl-wind for Beckett who will have to talk to the press a lot more over the last week and I expect him to come in distracted. Here’s a perfect opportunity for Pirates’ beleagured starter Francisco Liriano (0-5, 5.06 ERA) to take advantage of; Liriano has been pretty average to horrible this year, but the veteran has all the tools in place to turn things around. The Pirates looked pretty good in Thursday’s 6-3 series opening win; Pittsburgh has in fact won six of its last nine. Simply a great situation and while I do believe the outright win isn’t out of the question, I’m going to lay what I feel is a very reasonable price for an extra 1.5 runs of insurance.

AAA Sports

This is a 7* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Detroit Tigers.

AAA Sports Has: +1.5 -155

I like the Tigers to bounce back after their tough 3-1 loss last night. Detroit has now lost eight of ten after Josh Donaldson hit a three-run homer in the bottom of the ninth yesterday. The visitors turn to Rick Porcello (7-2, 3.88 ERA) who is also coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up eight runs and a career high 12 hits along with two walks over just 5 1/3’s innings in a 12-2 loss to Texas on Saturday. So is it time to hit the panic button if you’re a Porcello fan?! Obviously not, note that Porcello was tied for the major league lead for wins while his 1.01 WHIP was tied for 10th previous to that dud. Detroit looks to break the slump vs. Jesse Chavez (4-2, 2.61 ERA) who gave up four runs over 5 1/3’s innings in a 5-2 loss to Toronto on Saturday. Chavez has been susceptible to giving up the long ball, he’s served up five dingers over his last three outings. That’s good news for us as Tigers’ slugger Miguel Cabrera is 3 for 5 with a home run off Chavez. Detroit is in desperation mode, I think Porcello bounces back with a big effort and in a game which will be decided late or in extras, I have no problem at all laying this reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance.

AAA Sports

This is a 5* “BIG-CHALK RUN-LINE CHOKE-OUT” on the Detroit Tigers.

The Tigers sure are struggling, but I think they keep this one close enough to at the very least escape with the “run-line” victory. Detroit lost the opener 10-0 yesterday and has now dropped seven of its last eight, getting outscored 34-6 in the process. The visitors turn to Max Scherzer (6-1, 2.59 ERA) to stop the slide; Scherzer is coming off an outing to forget himself as he’d give up seven runs in the first three innings to go along with 12 hits, going seven innings in his team’s eventual 11-10, 13-inning loss at Cleveland on Wednesday. Here is the perfect venue for Scherzer to get untracked though, he’s 2-0 with a 1.82 ERA in his last four starts at Oakland. The home side counters with Sonny Gray (5-1, 1.99 ERA), who went eight frames in a 5-2, 11-inning loss at Tampa on Thursday. So while it won’t be easy, in a game which the starters should each go deep and where it’s decided late or in extras, I’m going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Play on Detroit on the “run-line”.

AAA Sports

This is a 5* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Washington Nationals.

These two teams are moving in opposite directions but I like the struggling visitors to at the very least keep this one close enough to escape with a strategic run line victory. The bottom, MLB handicapping comes down to starting pitching and in this case, the oddsmakers have severely underestimated the Nats’ Doug Fister (1-1, 3.93 ERA); Fister will be gunning for a third straight awesome start. Fister gave up one run over seven innings vs. the D-Backs on May 14th and then would yield two runs over seven frames in his team’s eventual 9-4 win over the Reds on Tuesday. "It's a constant battle for me to keep the ball down -- keeping mainly the sinker down and moving," Fister said. "It's always something that I'm working on." Pittsburgh has been on a bit of a run of late, unfortunately, sending Francisco Liriano (0-4, 4.86 ERA) to the bump is not conducive to keeping this stretch of great play going. Liriano has not won in 2014 and is 0-2 with a ballooned 5.79 ERA at PNC park thus far; most recently he was obliterated by giving up a season high six runs on nine hits, including two home runs over five frames in his team’s 9-2 loss to the Orioles on Tuesday. I’m throwing out recent performance and focusing strictly on starting pitching, while the outright win isn’t out of the question obviously, I’ll recommend laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Washington Nationals.

I played Washington yesterday and the Nationals would never be able to recover from an early deficit and would ultimately lose 5-2. I think behind the superior starter, the home side will win big this afternoon. New York is struggling and I think will make an immediate return to mediocrity, especially by sending Zack Wheeler (1-3, 4.53 ERA) to the hill; Wheeler is winless in his last five starts and pitched fewer than five innings in two of his last three outings. Most recently Wheeler gave up five runs while walking six over just 4 1/3’s innings of his team’s 12-7 loss to the Yankees on Tuesday. Wheeler has been exceptionally poor on the road this year, just 1-2 with a ballooned 5.26 ERA. Also note that Wheeler is just 1-3 with a pedestrian 4.07 ERA in four starts vs. Washington. The Nats had won three of four prior to yesterday’s setback. The home side turns to Jordan Zimmermann (2-1, 3.59 ERA) to get it back on the winning track; Zimmermann is coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up five runs off ten hits over 5 2/3’s innings in a no-decision vs. Arizona on Monday. Note though that Zimmermann had pitched 10 1/3’s scoreless innings over his previous two starts. While he’s just 2-3 vs. the Metropolitans, note the he owns a very respectable 2.64 ERA in ten starts vs. them. The clear talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the healthy return. Play on Washington on the RUN LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the St. Louis Cardinals.

The Cardinals got destroyed 17-5 in Monday’s series opener vs. the Cubbies and suffice it to say, with what I believe to be one of top hurlers in all of baseball on the mound for it today, expect the home side to return the favor with a convincing wire-to-wire victory. Let’s not crown Chicago quite yet, remember that it had lost seven of eight, scoring three or fewer runs in six of its last seven previous to yesterday’s abnormal offensive outburst. Enter Adam Wainwright (6-2, 2.02 ERA) to exact some revenge; Wainwright has had issues vs. the Cubs this year, giving up 10 runs over 12 innings in splitting two match-ups, but has posted an almost non-existent 0.59 ERA in his other six starts. Wainwright comes in with momentum, he held Atlanta to a run and six hits over eight innings in a 7-1 win. The Cardinals line-up will look to bounce back today against the Cubs’ Jake Arrieta (0-0, 2.89 ERA) who gave up four runs off nine hits over four innings in his team’s eventual 12-5 win over the White Sox on Thursday. No need to overanalyze this pick, the clear talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price. Play on St. Louis on the RUN LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 7* “BIG-CHALK RUN-LINE SITUATIONAL CHOKE-OUT” on the Boston Red Sox.

AAA Sports Has: +1.5 -160

Worst Case Scenario Line: +1.5 -180

The Rangers looked rattled in losing three of four to Colorado and I expect the Red Sox to give them everything they can handle once again today. Texas’ starting pitching would allow a combined 18 runs off 31 hits over 14 innings to the Rockies. However, the Rangers would also struggle at the plate, leaving 23 base-runners on board while scoring just five times. Yesterday’s 5-0 win was just the thid victory in the last ten games for Texas. Obviously the Rangers are feeling pretty good that things could turn around by sending their ace Yu Darvish (2-1, 2.87 ERA) to the mound. Davish most recently went 6 1/3’s innings, giving up three runs with nine K’s to earn his first victory since the start of the season in his team’s 14-3 beatdown of the Angels on Sunday. Note that Darvish has struggled against the Red Sox in two career starts, 0-1 with a 5.93 ERA. Boston comes in with momentum, it took two of three from the A’s and then swept a two-game series vs. the Reds and with a victory today would move above .500 for the first time since the start of the year. Boston has to be liking its chances as well today by sending Clay Buchholz (2-2, 5.63) to the hill; Buchholz has started to perform better after a brutal start, he’s won two in a row, giving up four runs off nine hits over his last 13 1/3’s innings of work. The last time Buchholz faced the Rangers he held Texas to a run and four hits over seven frames in his team’s 2-1 win in Arlington back on July 24th, 2012. I think these two starters battle into the latter frames and in a game which could easily see extras, I’m going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Miami Marlins.

The Fish are dominating at home now and I like for them to build off yesterday’s 4-3 win vs. the Mets’ suspect starter this evening. Miami is hitting .271 to rank third in the league; its 33 dingers and 153 runs scored is also amongst the best in MLB. The Marlins are 15-5 at home and have posted a .305 batting average there while hitting 21 homers and 121 runs overall, good enough for second in the majors. The Marlins’ starting pitching has dominated the Mets this year, posting a very respectable 2.84 ERA while holding New York to a tiny .224 average. The home side sends Henderson Alvarez (1-2, 3.28 ERA) to the mound to try and improve upon his spectacular 2-0 record to go along with his minuscule 1.77 ERA over his last three starts vs. the Mets. And that’s bad news for New York as it’s dropped four of five and will send over the hill Bartolo Colon (2-4, 5.65 ERA) to the bump; Colon has been the very definition of a “gas can” this year, he’s lost three of four outings while posting a ballooned 7.61 ERA in the process (and note that the veteran has given up a National League worst tying seven home runs). I think the writing is on the wall and am expecting Alvarez to dominate his counterpart and for the Fish to feast on Colon’s weak stuff; play on the Marlins on the run line.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “SITUATIONAL RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Detroit Tigers.

AAA Sports Has: -1.5 -130

Worst Case Scenario Line: -1.5 -147

Max Scherzer (3-1, 2.08 ERA) and the Tigers will look to take advantage of this favorable match-up and jump on Jarred Cosart (1-2, 5.52 ERA) and the Astros early and often; when the smoke finally clears at the end of this one I look for the home side to pull away for a convincing victory. Scherzer is looking for a fourth straight win, and Detroit is looking to win a sixth straight after returning home from a 6-1 road trip. Scherzer has been particularly sharp of late, he’s posted a 1.42 ERA while striking out 26 over 19 innings of work during his win streak, most recently giving up four hits over six scoreless frames in his team’s 5-1 win over the White Sox on Sunday (note that Scherzer was 1-0 with a very respectable 3.60 ERA in two match-ups vs. the Astros last season). Cosart has posted a ballooned 6.58 ERA over his five-start winless streak, and while he’s looked decently of late, note that Cosart has a brutal 7.71 ERA on the road. Houston comes in with zero momentum, it lost its fourth in its last five in yesterday’s 8-7 setback to Seattle. And that spells doom for the Astros today as Detroit is now rolling at the plate after a slow start to the season, inparticular slugger Miguel Cabrera who is hitting .386 with a home run and 12 RBIs during a 10-game hitting streak (also note that Cabrera feasted on Astros’ pitching last year going 11 for 29 with three home runs and eight RBIs as the Tigers would take six of seven from them). Underdog bettors have been cleaning up to start the year, but I’m not expecting any upsets in this one. Play on Detroit on the run line.

AAA Sports

This is a 5* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Kansas City Royals.

The Tigers’ Justin Verlander has struggled in Kauffman Stadium throughout his career and I believe this is an opportunity we can exploit with a strategic “run line” wager on an equally capable starter for the home side. The Royals will be eager to atone for yesterday’s 9-2 setback and take advantage of the fact that Verlander (3-1, 2.48 ERA) is 0-2 with a ballooned 6.04 ERA in four starts in Kansas City. Also note that Verlander didn’t look overly spectacular at home on opening day facing the Royals, giving up three runs ovr six frames, receiving a no-decision in his team’s eventual 4-3 victory. I think this is a golden opportunity for the home side’s starting line-up to get untracked. And as good as Detroit has been seeing the ball of late, it’s about to run into a determined starter in Jason Vargas (2-0, 2.40 ERA), who is actually coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up five runs and ten hits over 6 1/3’s innings while not factoring into his team’s eventual 10-7 win over Toronto on Tuesday; all signs point to Vargas returning to form, he had a 1.54 ERA through five starts previous to that dud (and note that he allowed just one run over seven frames in a 2-1, 10-inning loss to Detroit on April 2nd). A hungry home side with an extra 1.5 runs, I have no problem laying the price for that. Play on Kansas City on the run line.

AAA Sports

This is a 5* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Boston Red Sox.

I think these starting pitchers are a wash as far as execution right now, but give the slight nod to John Lackey (4-2, 3.82 ERA) because of the home field advantage and the hotter line-up backing him. If history is any precedence, then Lackey has to be loving his chances for a third-straight win for the first time in nearly three years as he’s 19-6 with an extremely respectable 2.90 ERA in 34 career starts vs. the A’s. Lackey most recently went eight innings and allowed two runs in his team’s 7-4 win over Tampa Bay on Tuesday. It obviously won’t be a cake walk though, as mentioned off the top runs will likely be at a premium here as the visitors counter with Sonny Gray (4-1, 1.76 ERA) who struck out six in his first complete game in his team’s 4-0 win at Texas on Monday; I’ve always thought that the next game following a performance of that magnitude sets up as a natural let down spot, and certainly Gray will have his hands full with the defending champions who have finally woken up at the plate, using grand slams to help secure each of the first two games of this series. The A’s on the other hand looked pretty anemic yesterday, they managed just a single hit through eight innings while striking out 15 times (Oakland would score three in the ninth). However, the numbers don’t lie, Oakland is hitting just .145 with 24 K’s in this series. More bad new for A’s backers today, Shane Victorino is expected to return to the line-up today for the home side after he was rested yesterday; Victorino is 9 for 31 in seven games since returning from injury. I think both starters go deep and in a game which will be decided late or in extras, I definitely feel that the value in this particular match-up is to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Play on Boston on the run line.

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This is a 10* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the New York Yankees.

Tampa has won four straight, but I look for it to finally stumble here vs. Yankees’ rookie Masahiro Tanaka. Tanaka is 3-0 with a 2.27 ERA so far this year, he’s given up a total of nine runs while limiting his opposition to a .205 batting average over his first 35 2/3’s innings in the big leagues (note that Tanaka also has 46 K’s as well). Most recently Tanaka gave up two runs off five hits over 6 1/3’s innings, not factoring into his team’s eventual 3-2 home win over the Angels; he did however finish with a season-best 11 strikeouts. The Yanks come in motivated, they’ve now lost three straight, including yesterday’s 10-5, 14-inning setback to Tampa. A date vs. Jake Odorizzi (1-3, 6.85 ERA) is just what the doctor ordered for the home side to get untracked; Odorizzi is 0-3 with a 9.17 ERA over his last four starts, giving up four runs off eight hits over 4 1/3’s innings in a 7-3 road loss to the White Sox on Monday. The clear talent discrepancy on the mound absolute justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the pick-em price. Play on New York on the run line.

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This is a 10* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Kansas City Royals.

No need to overanalyze this one, the clear talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the return in my opinion. Jason Vargas (2-0, 1.54 ERA) gets the call for the home side; Vargas is looking to open 3-0 as a starter for the first time in his career, he’s allowed just two earned runs or fewer in each of his first five outings. So far the southpaw is holding his opposition to a .214 average (note that Vargas has walked just eight in 35 innings). Most recently Vargas gave up three runs over six innings in his teams 5-3 loss at Cleveland. The Jays counter with Dustin McGowan (1-1, 6.88 ERA) who earned his first win since 2008 in a 2-0 win at Baltimore on April 11, but who has since gone on to allow 13 runs over his other three starts spanning just 10 2/3’s innings of work. Most recently McGowan gave up six runs over four-plus innings in Wednesday’s 10-8 loss to the Orioles. Let’s not read too much into the Jays 7-1 win over Boston on Sunday, they’d lost four straight previous to that. The Royals return to Kansas City after taking two of three from the Orioles, Omar Infante had a career high six RBIs in Sunday’s 9-3 win. I like Vargas to go deep and expect McGowan to get chased early. Play the Royals on the RUN LINE for the healthy plus-money return.

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This is a 10* “RUN LINE DESTRUCTION” on the San Francisco Giants.

San Francisco was horrible in interleague action last year. This is its first game vs. a team from the American League this season and I expect Tim Hudson and company to take advantage of a favorable match-up on the mound. The Giants are swinging a hot bat and I believe that continues today. Most recently San Francisco is coming off a 12-10, 11-inning victory at Colorado on Wednesday in which it homered a season-high six times. And that’s bad news for the Indians’ Carlos Carrasco (0-2, 7.31 ERA), who is 0-11 with a ghastly 8.25 ERA in 16 starts since he last won in 2011. Hudson (2-1, 2.40 ERA) is having a resurgent start and gave up two runs over seven innings in a 3-1 setback to the Friars on Saturday. San Francisco has won five of nine match-ups vs. the Tribe in interleague action, and with what I believe to be the superior starter on the hill, who is backed by an incredibly hot offense right now, look for this strong trend to continue here; lay the 1.5 runs for the big return in a game which will prove to be a never in double laugher. 

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This is a 10* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Detroit Tigers.

 

The home side sends its ace to the mound to even this series; suffice it to say, when the dust does finally settle at the end of this one, I look for the Tigers to have pulled away for a decisive victory. If history is any precedence, then Max Scherzer and the Tigers are loving their chances as the reigning Cy Young winner has won three straight over Chicago in front of the home town crowd. Detroit will be eager to atone for yesterday’s setback as Chicago would hit a grand slam in the seventh to secure the 6-4 win. I believe the hard-hitting White Sox finally get shut down here though; Scherzer has been dominant in the series, he’s 5-1 with a minuscule 1.05 ERA in his last seven starts vs. the White Sox at Comerica Park, giving up only six runs over 51 2/3’s innings in that span. Most recently Scherzer allowed one run and three hits over seven innings in his team’s 5-2 win vs. the Angels on Saturday. The visitors counter with Jose Quintana who gave up five runs off nine hits while striking out one over five innings in his team’s 6-3 setback at Texas. No need to overanalyze this one, I think the clear talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the pick-em price. Play on the Tigers run line.

 

 

AAA Sports

This is a 9* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Miami Marlins.

 

After sweeping the Seattle Mariners, I look for Tom Koehler and the Miami Marlins to at give the home side everything it can handle tonight. Miami will have its hands full with the Braves’ Julio Teheran who is coming off a 1-0, three hit victory. Note that it was his first complete game of his 38 career start. Koehler has been just as hot, he’s 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA, most recently giving up one hit while walking five over seven scoreless frames in his team’s 11-2 win over Washington on Tuesday. Koehler last gave up more than two runs back on September 10th. So while the Braves enjoyed considerable success vs. Miami pitching last year, there’s no question that they’ve struggled at the plate at times this year. I feel that Koehler is getting little respect from the oddsmakers and actually believe these starters are a wash; in game that is likely to be decided late or in extras, I’m going to pay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Play on the Marlins on the run line.

 

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Chicago White Sox.

 

AAA Sports Has: +1.5 -125

 

Worst Case Scenario Line: +1.5 -137

 

Chicago pitcher John Danks has struggled against the Tigers, he lost all three outings in 2013 and has actually dropped his last five in Detroit heading into Monday night’s opener. However, that was then, and this is now. Danks has looked much better of late and I fully expect him and the hard-hitting White Sox to give Anibel Sanchez and the Tigers everything they can handle tonight. Most recently Danks gave up one run over six frames in his team’s 6-4, 14-inning loss to Boston on Wednesday. The Tigers are coming off a 2-1 win over the Angels yesterday; Detroit has struggled at the plate of late, especially its biggest hitters. Miguel Cabrera was 0-3 yesterday and would finish the series 1 for 11 with four K’s; the reigning two-time AL MVP is just 8 for 47 in his last 12 games. Also note that he’s 0 for 9 vs. southpaws this year which plays into our hands here as Danks is a leftie. Sanchez has yet to last past the fifth inning this season, going five and giving up three in a 3-2 loss to Cleveland in his most recent start Wednesday. Sanchez will face a White Sox lineup which is coming off a big 16-2 win at Texas yesterday. A hot starter combined with a hot line-up; while the outright win isn’t out of the question, I’ll recommend paying the short price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance.

 

AAA Sports 

This is a 10* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the LA Dodgers.

 

AAA Sports Has: -1.5 +115

 

Worst Case Scenario Line: -1.5 -115

 

Arizona almost blew a late lead, but would recover to win in extras last night, snapping a six-game losing streak in their 4-2 12-inning victory at Chavez Ravine. The home side can empathize now, it’s lost three of its last four. However, I look for the LA’s sputtering offense to get back on track here vs. Diamondbacks rookie starter Mike Bolsinger. Bolsinger will be in tough here as his team has produced just nine runs and batted a brutal .197 over its last four games. Arizona is also hitting just .190 with runners in scoring position this year. Bolsinger made his first big-league appearance on Monday and gave up two runs off six hits over three innings of relief in his team’s 7-3 loss to the Mets. The Dodgers counter with Dan Haren who is 2-0 with a 2.04 ERA; Haren has given up two runs over 12 frames over his first two starts. Note that Haren is 2-1 with a 3.79 ERA in three career starts vs. Arizona. I feel the clear talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the plus-money return. Play on the Dodgers run line.

 

AAA Sports

This is a 5* “BIG-CHALK RUN-LINE CHOKE-OUT” on the St. Louis Cardinals.

 

I’ve played St. Louis on the run-line each of the last two games and have not even needed the extra runs. I think tonight’s contest will be the most competitive of them all though and will once again pay the price for the insurance. St. Louis has been getting the job done with superb starting pitching and with some timely hitting and has to be feeling pretty good about its chances once again today by sending Joe Kelly to the mound. Kelly has been “lights out” to start the year and there’s no reason to think that the hard-throwing right-hander won’t carry that over here; Kelly gave up one run in 5 1/3’s innings in his team’s 6-1 win over Pittsburgh on April 5th, before allowing just an unearned run over six frames in the Cards 6-3, 11-inning loss to the Cubs on Friday: “I had my two pitches working for me -- fastball, curveball," Kelly said after the unfortunate no-decision. "I kind of got a feel for my change there at the end and didn't have any walks, so that's always a plus." As stated above, this won’t be easy, Milwaukee sends Wily Peralta to the hill to try and get his team untracked; in his last start Peralta gave up two runs and four hits over seven innings in his team’s 4-2 win over the Pirates (note though that Peralta was just 1-3 with a ballooned 7.71 ERA in four starts vs. the Cards last year). All signs point to this one being decided late or in extras, so I’m going to lay the price for the extra runs.

 

AAA Sports 

This is a 5* “BIG-CHALK RUN-LINE CHOKE-OUT” on the St. Louis Cardinals.

AAA Sports will have their full analysis for this selection posted shortly. No later than 6 hours before game time.

This is a 4* “BIG-CHALK RUN-LINE CHOKE-OUT” on the St. Louis Cardinals.

Milwaukee lost its first game of the season but has since gone on to win nine straight, including Sunday’s 4-1 victory over Pittsburgh, its third straight series sweep. Tonight the home side will face a confident opponent whose line-up has woken up over the last two games. I think Lance Lynn and the Cardinals are going to keep this one competitive. The Brewers send Matt Garza to the bump; Garza is 0-1 with a 2.57 ERA and is coming off a lacklustre outing, going six frames, giving up three runs off eight hits in a no-decision in his team’s 9-4 win at Philadelphia. Garza has enjoyed some success vs. St. Louis in the past but I think is going to run into a buzzsaw of a line-up. The Cards are 29-12 in the series dating back to 2011. Not only did St. Louis win 14 of 19 in the season series last year, but it also won eight of ten in Milwaukee. I had St. Louis on the run line yesterday, a solid 10* victory as it would win 6-4 over the Cubbies. It’s true that the Cards started the season slow, but they’re 9 for 28 over their last two games with runners in scoring position. One player to keep your eyes on today for the visitors is Matt Adams; Adams feasted off Brewers’ pitching last year, hitting .359 with five dingers and 12 RBIs in 12 contests. Lance Lynn will have his hands full today as well, but so far he’s been pretty solid, posting a 2-0, 6.55 ERA record. Note that the Cards have supported Lynn with ten runs of support over his 11 innings of work (and note the Lynn actually owns a 6.12 career run-support average). I think Lynn gets the slight nod on the bump. Brewers have serious momentum, but I think the Cards can keep pace offensively vs. what appears to be a rusty Garza right now. In a contest which will likely be decided late or in extras, I’m going to pay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “SITUATIONAL RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the St. Louis Cardinals.

The home side will look to build off one of its best offensive performances in the finale of this three-game set. St. Louis would actually hit just .212 over its first 10 games and scored three runs or fewer in six of those contests. The Cards certainly have looked better of late though as they had seven hits in a 6-3 loss in 11 innings in Friday’s series opener, before then recovering to smash the Cubbies 10-4 yesterday: “It was nice to get some runs," Cardinals manager Mike Matheny assessed last night. "We took some good at-bats right from the top." St. Louis has won six of its last seven vs. Chicago including five of six in front of the home town crowd. A match-up vs. the Cubs’ Edwin Jackson is just what the doctor ordered for the Cards’ to keep their winning ways rolling. Jackson is 0-0 with a 6.30 ERA this season and is a brutal 1-5 with a 7.52 ERA in his last seven vs. St. Louis. Keep your eyes on the Cards’ Yadier Molina who is 12 for 23 (.522) lifetime vs. Jackson; also note that St. Louis’ Allen Craig is 7 for 15 (.467) off of him. St. Louis hands the ball to Michael Wacha who is 1-0 with a minuscule 0.71 ERA this year; Wacha has won back to back starts and gave up just one run over six frames in Monday’s win over the Reds. I think the momemtum that the Cards’ created at the plate yesterday gets carried over here and that Wacha continues to build on his stellar start. The clear talent discrepancy on the mound justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the pick-em price. Play on the Cards “run line”.

AAA Sports

This is a 7* “MID-CHALK RUN-LINE CHOKE-OUT” on the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Brewers are rolling, they’ve won seven straight. I like Edinson Volquez and the hard-hitting Pirates to keep this one close enough with the run line to get the job done today though. The Brewers’ Yovani Gallardo will toe the rubber; Gallardo is 2-0 with 0.00 ERA through his first two starts. I’ll caution in reading too much into Gallardo’s start quite yet, it’s simply to small a sample size. Gallardo posted a career-worst 4.18 ERA last year and saw his strikeouts per nine innings dropped from 9.00 in 2012 to 7.17 last year. With Pirates’ slugger Andrew McCutchen likely sitting, keep your eyes on Pedro Alvarez who has homered five times in his last seven games. The Pirates counter with Volquez who held St. Louis to a run over 5 2/3’s innings fo work on Sunday for the win; note that Volquez is 2-0 with a 2.19 ERA in two starts vs. the Brewers while with San Diego last year. I think the pitchers are a wash and that this game will be decided late, or in extras and will therefore recommend laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance.

AAA Sports

This is a 7* “MID-CHALK RUN-LINE CHOKE-OUT” on the Kansas City Royals.

The Rays enter this series on top of the AL East thanks to some solid pitching. Tampa hits the road for the first time this year and suffice it to say, I think Matt Moore and company will have their hands full with Jason Vargas and the dangerous Royals today. Tampa is coming off a 3-0 home loss to Texas and while it ranks in the league’s top 10 with a 2.57 ERA, this is a place in which it’s really struggled over the last few years. Note that Tampa has given up seven or more runs five times while dropping six of seven meetings with Kansas City last season. Its 7.95 ERA in the series was its highest mark vs. an opponent. One player you’ll want to keep your eyes on today is the Royals’ Billy Butler; Butler would dominate Rays pitchers last year by finishing 13 for 28 with a home run and nine RBIs. Kansas City has struggled to open the year, it’s hitting just .214 with runners in scoring position while totaling just 16 runs with no homers thus far, but a date vs. Moore is just what the doctor ordered for it to get untracked against. The Royals would score five times over 5 1/3’s innings off of him in a 7-2 road win on June 14th. Moore gave up two runs over 5 2/3’s innings in a 3-0 loss to the Jays on Wednesday. Vargas on the other hand looked great in his first start for his new team by giving up one run and five hits over seven frames in the 2-1, 10-inning loss at Detroit on Wednesday. That’s bad news for a suddenly struggling Rays’ lineup which has totaled two runs in its three losses and which is hitting only .208 with runners in scoring position after going 0 for 11 in those situations Sunday. I feel more comfortable laying this extremely reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Play on the Royals “run line”.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* "RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION" on the Boston Red Sox.

The Red Sox will look to overcome a tough outing yesterday by sending consistent starter Jake Peavy (11-4, 4.02 ERA) to hill at Coors Field. Peavy allowed three runs over seven innings while striking out eight in a no-decision against the Orioles in his last start. Peavy is 4-6 with an ERA of 3.92 over 117 innings lifetime versus Colorado. The Rockies will counter with Jhoulys Chacin (14-9, 3.21 ERA). Chacin held the Diamondbacks to two runs over six innings in a win last Friday. Note Chacin was not at his best, he walked five in this game and was fortunate to get out of it without too much damage. The Red Sox are one of the best teams in the league this season and are 84-56 in night games this season. I expect the team bounce back from a tough loss to a less than impressive team in the Rockies last night to easily get the win here. Take the Red Sox on the Run-Line.
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