This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Washington Nationals.

Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, we definitely believe that Max Scherzer and the home side should be much bigger ones. In fact, we feel that the talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the near “pick-em” price.

Braden Shipley: He’s been called up to make this single start for the Nats. In Triple-A Reno this season he owns a poor 4.18 ERA and 1.68 WHIP. Note that he was particularly bad in this spot last year, going just 3-4 with a 4.81 ERA on the road.

Scherzer: He’s 3-2 with a 2.94 ERA. He’s coming off an outing to forget in which he allowed five runs off nine this and a walk while striking out seven over six innings in a 7-5 loss to the Mets on Friday. It was by far Scherzer’s worst start of the year and despite the rough outing, note that he still owns a tiny 0.98 WHIP and 40:9 K:BB ratio over his 33.1 innings of work.

The bottom line: Scherzer was 20-7 with a 2.96 ERA last season and was particularly tough at home, going 8-3 with a 2.56 ERA. The Nats managed a 2-1 win on Wednesday, but a blowout of epic proportions is in the cards on Thursday. Lay the 1.5 runs, play on WASHINGTON on the RUN-LINE.

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This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Cleveland Indians.

So far Dallas Keuchel has been pretty fantastic for the Astros, but we expect Josh Tomlin and the home side to give the visitors everything they can handle this evening.

Keuchel: He owns a 0.96 ERA and 0.79 WHIP over his first four starts. Most recently he allowed one run on eight hits and a walk while striking out seven over seven innings in a 5-1 win over the Angels on Wedensday. We think this unbeilevable pace is not sustainable. Note that if he did have one clear weakness last season, it was his play on the road where he’d finish a poor 5-7 with a 5.42 ERA. 

Tomlin: He’s just 1-2 with an 11.68 ERA. The veteran got back on track in his last start, allowing three runs off seven hits over six innings while striking out two in an 11-4 win over Minnesota on Tuesday. Tomlin posted a career-high 13 wins last year, note he finished the second half with a 3-1 (2.75 ERA) record at home in 2016.

The bottom line: We think the Tribe come to play today. Lay the price for the extra run-and-a-half of insurance. Play on the INDIANS on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 5* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Atlanta Braves.

Atlanta has a big opportunity to take this one outright, as we think these pitchers are very evenly matched. However, we’re going to recommend laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance with the sometimes offensively challenged Braves.

Julio Teheran: He faced the Mets in his season opener and went six scoreless, allowing four hits and three walks while striking out six in the unfortunate no-decision. Teheran was 7-10 with a 3.21 ERA last season and was particularly effective both on the road (5-4, 2.69 ERA) and in all “day” games (4-2, 2.14).

Gerrit Cole: He had a strong spring but was rocked in his first start of the year in Boston on Monday, giving up five runs off seven hits and a walk while striking out two in the loss. Note that Cole wasn’t particularly impressive in this spot last year, going 2-5 with a 3.53 ERA at home and a poor 2-5 with a 4.21 ERA in all “day” games.

The bottom line: In a contest which we foresee being decided late or in extra frames, we’re going to lay the price for the extra runs. Play on ATLANTA on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* RUN-LINE PLAY OF THE MONTH on the Houston Astros.

We feel that the talent discrepancy on the mound, combined with the Royals’ issues at the plate absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price. 

Jason Vargas: The Royals are struggling offensively this year, which dosn’t bode well for Vargas, who looked shaky in the spring, ultimately finishing with a 3.84 ERA. KC’s bullpen has also been atrocious, in the season opening series loss to the Twins (0-3) its bullpen would allow 14 runs, all in the seventh inning.

Mike Fiers: He was 11-8 with a 4.48 ERA last year. Fiers is only in the starting rotation because Colin McHugh is injured, but he looked sharp this spring, posting a 2.42 ERA over 18.1 innings of work.

The bottom line: The Astros are getting production at the plate and have the superior starter on the mound. Play on HOUSTON on the RUN-LINE.

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This is a 7* SUPER WINNER on the DODGERS on the RUN-LINE.

Setting the scene: This series is all knotted up at one after they split in Chicago. The Cubs took Game 1, 8-4, before the Dodgers responded with a 1-0 victory in Game 2. We think that Game 3 will be another highly competitive affair and while we obvoiusly wouldn’t be shocked if the Dodgers won this one outright, we’re going to lay the price in the end to grab the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. 

The Cubs: Chicago struggled at the plate in Game 2, meaning Jake Arrieta will need to be extra sharp today. He took a no decision in Game 3 of the NLDS against San Francisco on Monday, allowing two runs off six hits over six innings (Chicago went on to lose that one 6-5 in 13 innings). In 25 lifetime innings against the Dodgers he’s 1-2 with a 3.24 ERA. He’s 1-1 with a 2.57 ERA over 14 innings at Dodger Stadium.

The Dodgers: The momentum has swung back in favor of LA and we’re looking for the team to keep it rolling. Adrian Gonzalez’s solo homer in the second proved to be the only run of the game. Rich Hill gets the call for the home side, he finished the regular season at 12-5 with a 2.12 ERA. Hill has struggled in his limited postseason action, but in his last appearance he gave up one run off three hits with six K’s over 2.2 innings in Game 5 of the NLDS. Hill though has had plenty of success at Dodger Stadium, going 2-1 with a 0.39 ERA and 0.87 WHIP over 23 innings.

The bottom line: The scrappy Dodgers keep finding ways to win and all signs point to another very competitive affair. Play on LA on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SUPER BLOWOUT on the Cleveland Indians on the RUN-LINE.

Setting the scene: These teams opened the 2016 campaign with a series against each other and will now begin the postseason in this ALDS. We think that ex Red Sox manager and current Indians manager Terry Francona will get the better of his former team tonight.

Boston: The Red Sox send Rick Porcello to the hill, he’d put together the best campaign of his career in 2016 with a 22-4, 3.15 ERA record. Porcello is 10-4 with a 3.35 ERA lifetime against the Tribe. 

Cleveland: Trevor Bauer gets the start for the home side, he finished 12-8 with a 4.26 ERA. He’s struggled against the Red Sox throughout his career, but note that he’s done very well in this spot for bettors all season by going 8-4 with a respectable 3.74 ERA in all night contests.

The bottom line: Despite taking four of the six regular-season games between the teams, the Indians would go on to secure home field advantage in this series, which we think is a huge situational factor working in their favor. For Game 1 anyways. Note that Cleveland was 53-28 in front of the home town crowd this year. While Porcello gets a slight nod on the bump, we’re giving the Indians the slight nod at the plate, based upon their documented production in Cleveland this season. In the end, we’ll lay the pick-em price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Play on the INDIANS on the RUN-LINE.

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This is an 8* SUPER PLAY on the Baltimore Orioles on the RUN-LINE.

Setting the scene: Chris Tillman had a surprisingly good season, finishing 16-6 with a 3.77 ERA. He was really good on the road as well, going 8-3 with a 2.97 ERA. His counterpart Marcus Stroman was 9-10 with a 4.37 ERA. Stroman looked brilliant at times this year, but also frustratingly average in others. Note that he’d finish with a pedestrian 4.59 ERA at home.

Tillman: Tillman has been throwing in the AL East for many seasons and the Blue Jays have dominated him over the course of his career. In fact, in 24 career outings against Toronto, he’s only 5-10 with a 5.44 ERA. He’s also just 2-6 with a 7.01 ERA in 13 starts in Toronto overall. But that was then and this is now. Tillman has held his own against the Blue Jays this year, going 1-0 with a 3.63 ERA in four starts. And in two starts in Toronto, he’d post a 2.38 ERA. 

Stroman: He went 0-5 in September, despite posting a decent 3.41 ERA in six outings. Stroman though has been hit-or-miss all year and he faced the Orioles just last week and got rocked. In fact, in he’s just 2-3 with a 5.07 ERA in seven career outings against Baltimore, including only 1-2 with a 7.04 ERA in three matchups this season. 

The bottom line: Does Toronto have an advantage on the mound tonight? The numbers definitely say no. Do the Jays have the advantage at the plate? The numbers would also point to “no,” as they’d post an AL-worst 3.69 runs per game in 29 games in Sept-Oct. We think this one should be more of a pick-em priced line, but in this case, we’re goign to lay the very reasonable mid-sized price with confidence and grab the extra run-and-a-half at the same time. Play on BALTIMORE on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Cleveland Indians.

Setting the scene: Cleveland took two of three from visiting Toronto, but then dropped two of three to Oakland, including yesterday’s 5-1 setback. The Indians were likely caught looking ahead to their important series in Texas which starts tonight and now the visitors will look to get back on track with a much better effort.

Josh Tomlin: He’s 11-7 with a 4.39 ERA. Tomlin comes in off an outing to forget in which he gave up six runs over four innings vs. the Blue Jays on Saturday. Note that he’s been decent on the road this year, going 6-3 with 4.07 ERA.

Cole Hamels: He’s 13-4 with a 2.80 ERA. Hamels comes in off a strong outing vs. the soft-hitting Rays on Friday, allowing one earned run over seven innings in the eventual 6-2 victory. Hamels has posted five straight quality starts but is just 2-2 in that span. Hamels has been a beast on the road (1.91 ERA), but very average at home (4.05) this season.

The bottom line: These teams have both been scuffling offensively of late and with these two competent starters going head to head, all signs point to runs once again being at a premium tonight. In a contest which we see being decided late or in extras, we’re going to lay what we deem to be a very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Play on the INDIANS on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Chicago Cubs.

Setting the scene: Zach Davies has been a nice surprise this season for the Brewers, but Jake Arrieta is in an entirely different league than his young counterpart in our professional opinion. We’re expecting a major lop-sided blowout when the smoke does finally clear at the end of this one.

Davies: He’s 9-5 with a 3.80 ERA. He comes in off a “dud,” allowing five runs off eight hits in a loss to the soft-hitting Reds on Saturday. 

Arrieta: He’s 14-5 with a 2.55 ERA. The Cubs’ ace comes in off a gem vs. the Cardinals on Friday, allowing an earned run off four hits and two walks while also striking out six over six innings. Arrieta has now allowed just three earned runs over his last 20.2 innings of work spanning his last three starts. He’s been very good in all day games this season, going 9-3 with a 2.31 ERA, but he’s been even better at home though by posting a minuscule 1.70 ERA.

The bottom line: Chicago cruised to a 6-1 victory with Jon Lester on the mound yesterday and we have a hard time seeing the Brewers being able to muster much of an offense today either. Look for the surging CUBS to pull ahead early and never look back.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Washington Nationals.

We think the massive talent discrepancy on the mound this evening absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the “pick-em” price. The visitors hand the ball to the struggling Matt Cain (3-6, 5.53 ERA) who notched his second win of the year vs. the Reds on Tuesday despite getting shelled for four runs off six hits. Cain has been the very model of inconsistency this season and if he’s had one true weakness then it’s clearly been his play on the road where he’s a disturbing 0-3 with a ballooned 7.48 ERA. The home side counters with ace Stephen Strasburg (15-1, 2.63) who comes in off a gem vs. Arizona on Monday, giving up one run off three scattered hits to go along with six K’s over six innings in the eventual victory. Strasburg has now given up one run or fewer in all but one of his past seven starts and he has 51 K’s to just 15 walks over his last 47.2 innings of work. The hard-hitting Nationals have to be liking their chances today obviously as Strasburg is 7-1 with a 3.35 ERA at home thus far and an almost incomprehensible 9-0 with a 2.23 ERA in all “night” games to date. All signs point to a lop-sided destruction, play on the NATIONALS on the RUN-LINE.

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This is a 5* FAN APPRECIATION ASSASSIN on the San Francisco Giants on the RUN-LINE.

This is a mismatch of Titanic proportions, it’s a perfect opportunity to pull the trigger on a strategic “run-line” play. The visitors hand the ball to the erratic Dan Straily (5-6, 4.01 ERA) who gave up two runs off five hits over six innings in a victory over Arizona on Friday. Straily has shown flashes of brilliance at times this year but he has also looked very pedestrian in others and if he’s had one clear weakness this season it’s been his play on the road where he’s gone just 2-5 with a ballooned 4.96 ERA. The home side counters with ace Madison Bumgarner (10-5, 2.14) who gave up two runs over seven innings in a no-decision vs. the Yanks on Friday. It wasn’t his best outing, but Bumgarner settled down nicely after a rocky couple of innings and he’s got to be feeling very confident in this spot today as he’s 5-2 with a tiny 1.64 ERA in front of the home town crowd this year and an even better 3-0 with a 1.45 ERA in all “day” games. The massive talent discrepancy on the mound this afternoon absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the pick-em price. Play on the GIANTS on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 6* BIG-CHALK RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Arizona Diamondbacks.

In a contest which we feel will be decided late or in extra innings, we’re going to recommend laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The visitors turn to Patrick Corbin (4-9, 5.23 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget vs. the hard-hitting Blue Jays on Wednesday, allowing six runs over 5.2 innings. Corbin though has been a complete “Jekyll and Hyde” hurler this year, going 0-7 at home but a very respectable 4-2 with a 3.64 ERA on the road. The home side counters with confirmed “gas can” Matt Garza (1-4, 5.94) who was blasted for five runs off eight hits over five innings in a setback to the Pirates on Thursday. Garza has now dropped four straight and has five consecutive outings in which he’s been shelled for at least four runs. Unfortunately a date at home is not what the doctor ordered for Garza to get untracked as he owns a poor 6.00 ERA in Mliwaukee so far this year. Play on the DIAMONDBACKS on the RUN-LINE.

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This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION St. Louis Cardinals.

We think that the massive talent discrepancy on the mound today absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the “pick-em” price. The visitors hand the ball to the erratic Andrew Cashner (4-7, 5.05 ERA) who has looked a bit better of late, but who has for the most part been consistently inconsistent all season. Cashner has certainly struggled in this spot all year as well, going a deplorable 0-4 with an atrocious 7.83 ERA on the road thus far. The home side counters with ace Adam Wainwright (9-5, 4.15) who after a slow start to the season, has come on like “gang-busters” and who comes in off a gem, scattering three hits and striking out five with no runs allowed to earn the victory over the Marliners on Saturday. Wainwright comes in with a ton of momentum and confidence, allowing just one earned run over his last 25 innings of work. The Cards have to be loving their chances today obviously as Wainwright is already 5-2 with a very respectable 2.54 ERA in front of the home town crowd to date. We love Wainwright in this matchup and expect his team to also take full advantage of his favorable mismatch. Play on the CARDINALS on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 5* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the LA Dodgers.

In what we believe will be a tightly contested affair, we’re going to recommend laying the price for the extra run and a half of insurance. The visitors hand the ball to Scott Kazmir (7-3, 4.52 ERA) who gave up three runs off six hits and three walks over just three innings in a fortunate no-decision vs. the Padres on Friday. He did strike out five though. It was a crummy start for Kazmir, but the southpaw had delivered his best outing of the year his last time out and had a very respectable 3.18 ERA over his last three combined. He’ll now look to bounce back and improve upon his 5-3, 3.78 ERA in all “night” games. The home side counters with Reynaldo Lopez (0-0, 0.00) who will make his big league debut tonight. Lopez made just two starts at Triple-A, but owned a decent 3.18 ERA and 4.0 K:BB ratio over 76.1 innings for Double-A Harrisburg. Play on the DODGERS on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Boston Red Sox.

No need to overanalyze this one, James Shields (2-9, 6.28 ERA) is quite possibly the worst pitcher in the league. Most recently Shields was pounded for eight runs off seven hits and three walks while striking out two over just 1.2 innings in a setback to the Indians on Saturday. The beleagured journeymen would allow ten baserunners while only retiring five batters in his short amount of time on the mound. Shields has now allowed 21 earned runs in his 8.2 innings of work with Chicago to give him an almost incomprehensible 21.81 ERA. The home side counters with Rick Porcello (8-2, 3.76) who most recently gave up two runs off eight hits while stirking out six over six innings in the eventual 6-2 victory over the Mariners on Saturday. And note that Porcello has been particularly strong in this spot all year, 3-0 with a 3.73 ERA in all “day” games and 6-0 with a 3.03 ERA in front of the home town crowd. Shields’ amazing inconsistency on the mound coupled with the White Sox anemic ways at the plate, make Porcello and the RED SOX on the RUN LINE the correct move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the New York Mets.

John Gant is in over his head here as Matt Harvey continues to turn the corner. Gant (0-1, 5.63 ERA) went just four innings in a loss to the Cubs on Sunday, giving up three runs off four hits to go along with four walks. Gant remains in the Braves’ rotation due to neccessity. Harvey (4-8, 4.66) comes in off his second straight dominant start, giving up just one run off four scattered hits while striking out three over seven innings in an unfortunate 1-0 setback to Miami on Sunday. Harvey has now allowed just one run over his last 14 innings of work. The Mets almost blew a 6-0 lead late, but managed to hold on for the win vs. the Pirates last night. We’re expecting the home side to take advantage of this favorable matchup and predict a lop-sided destruction from start to finish. Lay the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price, play on the METS on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* RUN-LINE PLAY OF THE MONTH on the Toronto Blue Jays.

After yesterday’s 7-0 series opening setback, we’re expecting the home side to respond in similar fashion today. Despite his recent struggles, Jays’ “ace” Marcus Stroman has a big advantage this afternoon. Monday’s loss came on the heels of a tough four game series over the Baltimore Orioles in which Toronto would go 3-1, three of the contests being decided by a single run: "Today was kind of a letdown," said R.A. Dickey, who took the loss last night. "I don't think we played with a lot of energy today. We had a lot of games where lately we've been very invested against division opponents. It's plausible that that would be the case. You play the Phillies, and they don't have a winning record. It was just a low-energy day for us all around it felt like. Thank goodness it only counts for one loss, you know? It feels like a lot worse." With that wake up call now behind them, we’re expecting Toronto to take advantage today. The Phillies trot out Zach Eflin to make his major league debut. Eflin was 5-2 with a 2.90 ERA in 11 starts in Triple-A. Stroman (5-2, 4.94) gave up four runs with two K’s over 5 1/3’s innings vs. the Orioles on Thursday, earning a no-decision in the 6-5 setback. Stroman though is 3-0 with a tiny 1.72 ERA in seven interleague games, including three starts. Game 2 favors the home side, we’re expecting a convincing victory (note that the Jays are 28-18 their last 46 interleague contests for +5.3 units). Lay the 1.5 runs for the “pick-em” price, play on TORONTO on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Philadelphia Phillies. 

The Phillies won outright yesterday and have a legitimate shot at pulling off another straight up upset this afternoon in our opinion. The Cubs send veteran John Lackey to the hill, who has gotten better as the season has progressed. Lackey is 3-1 with a 1.83 ERA since May 1st, but note that if he’s had one glaring weakness this season, it’s clearly been his play on the road where he’s posted a pedestrian 4.55 ERA. The home side counters with Vince Velasquez (5-2, 3.67) who started the season on fire, but who has since cooled off. Velasquez though has been “lights out” at home, 3-1 with a tiny 1.26 ERA. Velasquez has something to prove today and we’re expecting him to go deep with Lackey and in a contest which we foresse being decided late or even in extra innings, we’re going to grab the 1.5 runs of insurance. Play on the PHILLIES on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the San Diego Padres.

We think we’re getting great value on James Shields and the Padres on the “run line” (+1.5 runs). Shields (2-6, 3.06 ERA) went six frames vs. the Giants on Wednesday, giving up two runs off five hits while striking out six and walking one. Despite his record, Shields has pitched well of late and he’s been effective on the road with a stingy 2.33 ERA. The home side counters with Hisashi Iwakuma (3-4, 4.33) who comes in off a victory after holding the A’s to three runs off eight hits in a 13-3 rout. We’re a little hesitant to say that Iwakuma has completely turned the corner yet and certainly his sub-par 1-2, 5.55 ERA home record leaves everything to be desired. Getting Shields with an extra 1.5 runs in this matchup and at this price is just too good to turn down, play on the PADRES on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* RUN-LINE PLAY OF THE MONTH on the Seattle Mariners.

We feel that the massive talent discrepancy on the mound this evening absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the pick-em price. When the smoke clears at the end of this one, expect the home side to have pulled away for the convincing beatdown victory. The visitors turn to Pat Dean (0-1, 3.86 ERA) who gave up two earned runs off three hits and three walks over six innings in a no-decision vs. the Jays on Saturday. The book is clearly still out on Dean, who will once again be thrown to the wolves in having to face Felix Hernandez (4-3, 2.21) who comes in off a gem, giving up no runs off four hits and three walks with five K’s over six innings in a victory vs. Cincinnati on Saturday. It was the third time this season that “The King” has held an opponent scoreless in an outing. Note that Hernandez is 2-1 with a tiny 1.55 ERA in front of the home town crowd thus far. We are a big fan of playing against over priced favorites, but in this case, we’re expecting Hernandez and Seattle to take full advantage of this situation. Play on the MARINERS on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* RUN-LINE play on the San Diego Padres.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to starting pitching. When looking at these two starters, there’s no question which team has the advantage. The home side though has the advantage at the plate, but we think James Shields and the visiting Friars will muster enough offense to at the very least, keep this one close to cover with the 1.5 runs of insurance. Shields (2-6, 3.07 ERA) gave up three runs (two earned) off nine hits over six innings vs. the Giants on Thursday, also striking out seven and walking just one. It was a second straight start in which the Friars’ ace has struck out more than a batter per inning while issuing just a single walk. Note that Shields has been better on the road than at home this year as well, posting a tiny 2.14 ERA away from friendly confines. The home side counters with confirmed “gas can” Jake Peavy (1-5, 8.21) who owns a terrible 1.90 WHIP this season. Peavy most recently was blasted for five runs off seven hits, including a homer over just 1.2 innings pitched. Note that Peavy has been particularly horrible in this spot already this season, going 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA in day games. Play on the PADRES on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* RUN-LINE play on the St. Louis Cardinals.

Jake Arrieta is obvoiusly “the man,” but so was Chris Sale, who just finished getting rocked in a loss to the Indians last night. After getting its butt kicked 12-3 yesterday, we think St. Louis comes into this one much more focused. Arrieta (8-0, 1.29 ERA) is the fifth pitcher in MLB history to win at least 18 straight regular-season decisions. Interesting to note though that the last time he lost on the road, was a 5-1 defeat at St. Louis on May 7th, 2015. The home side counters with Carlos Martinez (4-4, 3.56) who started the season strong, but who has since fallen off. Martinez though benefits in facing this struggling Cubs’ lineup, we’ll caution in reading too much into yesterday’s offensive outbust, as remember Chicago had totaled just six runs over a three-game skid previous. And if history is any precedence, then Martinez has to be liking his chances for scoring an upset today as he’s always fared well against Chicago, going 3-0 with a 2.55 ERA in his last four vs. it. We think Martinez can hang with Arrieta into the latter frames and in a contest which we see being decided late or in extras, we’ll lay the pick-em price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Play on the CARDS on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is an 6* RUN-LINE play on the Philadelphia Phillies.

Aaron Nola (3-3, 2.85 ERA) isn’t coming off his best outing of the year, he’d allow five runs (two earned), off seven hits, walking two and striking out six over seven innings of a 7-1 loss to the Braves on Friday. A three-run home run by Mikael Franco did the most damage. Nola’s future is bright, possessing one of the best curve-balls in the business and note that he’s already 2-0 with a tiny 1.32 ERA on the road this year. The home side counters with Anibal Sanchez (3-5, 6.23), who continued his up-and-down season on Friday by getting blasted for five runs off six hits with two walks over five innings in a setback to Tampa Bay. Sanchez has shown glimpses of promise here and there, but for the most part he must now be considered a failure, he’s made it into the seventh inning just once in nine appearances this year and is already winless in four May starts (note that he owns a 6.08 ERA in all day games and an even worse 7.23 ERA at home). In a contest which we believe will be decided late or in extras, we’re going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance.

AAA Sports 

This is a 5* BIG-CHALK RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Phillies are one of the worst offensive clubs in the league, but they’re backed by what we feel to be the clearly superior starter. In a contest which we predict will be decided late or in extra innings, we’re going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The visitors hand the ball to Vince Velasquez (5-1, 2.42 ERA) who gave up three hits and two walks while stirking out ten over five scoreless innings in a victory over the Marlins on Tuesday. The home side counters with the erratic Mike Pelfrey (0-4, 5.49) who gave up two runs off seven hits and a walk with three K’s over five innings in a no-decision vs. Minnesota on Tuesday. Pelfrey has now allowed eight home runs in as many starts this year and he has only 23 strikeouts in 41 innings of work (and note that Pelfrey owns a poor 0-2, 6.10 ERA in front of the home town crowd this year). Play on the PHILLIES on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Cincinnati Reds.

These two teams are moving in opposite directions. The Mariners have been getting the job done this season with extremely fantastic play on the road. The Reds have simply been a disaster to this point, but will obviously be the hungrier of the two teams as they look to break the slide and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Unbelievably the Mariners are 6-0-1 in road series and 15-7 overall away from friendly confines. Hisashi Iwakuma (1-4, 4.38 ERA) gets the call for the vistiors and he’s been terrible so far this year, most recently he was rocked for four runs and a season-high nine hits over 6 1/3’s innings in 9-7 loss to the Angels on Saturday. And unfortuantely for Iwakuma, this is a position in which he’s struggled in throughout his career, going just 1-2 with an atrocious 6.26 ERA in his last four interleague starts. The home side counters with Dan Straily (2-1, 3.05 ERA) who has given up three runs or fewer in each of his six starts this year and who would strike out five over five scoreless frames in Sunday’s 9-4 win at Philadelphia. Straily has not done so well against the Mariners in the past, but that was then and this is now, we’re going to give the home side hurler the big nod in this matchup. Lop-sided numbers and trends have a way of naturally correcting themselves and we think Seattle’s hot road run will start to take a hit sooner than later. In a game which we believe will be decided late or in extra innings, we’re going to lay what we feel to be a very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Play on the REDS on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is an 5* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Houston Astros.

The home side hands the ball to Mat Latos (5-0, 3.40 ERA), who got out to a remarkable start to the season, going 4-0 with a tiny 0.74 ERA through his first four starts. Latos though has been slipping of late, posting an atrocious 7.63 mark over his last three, most recently getting blasted for five runs off seven hits with five walks in 5 1/3’s innings in a 6-5 loss in Texas on Wednesday. The visitors hand the ball to Doug Fister (3-3, 4.22) who has gotten significantly better as the season has worn on, going 2-2 with a 3.09 ERA in five straight quality starts. Most recently Fister gave up two runs over seven innings in Wednesday’s 5-3 win over the Tribe. Also note that Houston’s bats have finally started to come alive, posting 6.8 runs per game over a 2-2 span. In a contest which we expect to be decided late or in extras, we’re going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Play on HOUSTON on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 6* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Cincinnati Reds.

Aaron Nola is a classic “Jekyl and Hyde” hurler, dominating on the road, but getting killed in front of the home town crowd. He’s 2-0 with a 1.32 ERA with 34 K’s and five walks in five starts away from friendly confines, but has been blasted for a combined 11 runs and 13 hits over 12 innings while dropping both in Philadelphia. The visitors counter with Tim Adleman (1-0, 2.45), who after allowing two runs and three hits over six innings in his major league debut vs. the Pirates, would give up just one run and four hits over five innings in his team’s 5-1 home win over the Brewers on Friday. Both team’s are a couple of the worst in the entire league at the plate, so we’re going to call that area a “wash.” We feel that Adleman can battle Nola deep and in a contest which we expect to be decided late or in extra innings, we’re going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Play on the REDS on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Detroit Tigers.

A couple of competent starters and ex-teammates square off on Wednesday night and we think the visitors will at the very least, keep this one close enough to cover with the spread (+1.5 runs, RUN-LINE). Jordan Zimmermann (5-1, 1.10 ERA) gets the call for the Tigers. Zimmermann was 70-50 with a 3.32 ERA over his first seven seasons with Washignton. Despite allowing just three runs over eight innings, he suffered his first loss to Texas on Friday. A date on the road is just what the doctor ordered to get back on track for Zimmermann though, he’s 3-0 with a tiny 0.47 ERA in three road starts this year and he’ll look to help his team win consecutive games for the first time since late April as the Tigers snapped a seven-game slide with a 5-4 victory on Tuesday. The Nationals counter with Max Scherzer (3-2, 4.60) who comes into this one with a career worst ERA, while also allowing nine home runs already. Most recently Scherzer was rocked for seven runs off seven hits and four homers in his team’s 8-6 road loss to the Cubs on Friday. We’ll admit, Washington’s lineup is the more potent, but clearly Zimmermann is throwing at a much different level than his counterpart and while we wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright win today, in a contest which we predict will be decided late or in extra innings, we’ll ultimately recommend laying what we feel to be a very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Play on the TIGERS on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the St. Louis Cardinals.

The Cards snapped a four-game skid by exploding for a 10-3 win in yesterday’s series opener. St. Louis had only managed six runs in its previous four games, but used five home runs to end the Phillies’ six-game win streak. Gaining momentum is difficult, but once lost it’s even harder to find it again. This sets up as a classic letdown spot for the visitors, while conversely, St. Louis can smell the blood in the water and will be eager to build off yesterday’s performance and to further mentally distance itself from its losing stretch. Philadelphia sends Aaron Nola (1-2, 3.55 ERA) to the hill, he’s coming off a 3-0 win at Washington on Thursday. Nola has been great on the road this year, but horrible at home. We think these numbers quickly start correcting themselves, note that he owns a pedestrian 4.26 ERA in all night games this season. The home side counters with Michael Wacha (2-1, 3.07 ERA) who gave up four earned runs in 4 1/3’s innings in his 2016 debut, but who has given up just six runs over his last 25 innings of work spanning four starts (note that Wacha owns a 0.75 ERA at home this year). All signs point to a lop-sided beatdown, a perfect situation to pull the trigger on a run-line selection; play on the CARDS on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the New York Mets.

Is Noah Syndergaard an “elite” pitcher in this league? His numbers are certainly impressive. While he’s not on the same level as a Chris Sale or Clayton Kershaw because of his road record (although he’s already 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA away from friendly confines this year), we would classify Syndergaard as an elite level hurler when he’s throwing at home. Madison Bumgarner used to be an elite level starter, but he’s taken one small step back from the top guys in the majors. Syndergaard should be a bigger fav in this spot in our opinion, which makes laying the 1.5 runs for the big plus money return too good to turn down today. New York is rolling, it will be going for its ninth straight win and will also be out to send a message to San Francisco with a series sweep. The Mets have also now won six in a row at Citi Field. Bumgarner (2-2, 3.64 ERA) gave up two runs off six hits over 6 2/3’s innings in a 5-4 victory over the soft-hitting Padres on Monday. Bumgarner has great numbers vs. the Mets over his career, but he didn’t even face them last year. Syndergaard (2-0, 1.69) struggled in his only start vs. the Giants as a rookie in 2015, but that was then and this is now. Note that Syndergaard posted a 7-2, 2.46 ERA home record last season and was 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA in all day games in 2015. Also note that he has not given up a home run in 26 2/3’s innings while stirking out 38. The combination of Syndergaard’s home dominance and the very real momentum that New York has at the plate right now make the METS on the RUN-LINE the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Chicago Cubs.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and this case we feel that Jon Lester (2-1, 1.98 ERA) is so significantly better than his counterpart, that laying the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price is the way to go. Lester most recently allowed one run off five hits, walking one and striking out four over seven innings in his team’s 8-1 win vs. the Reds on Friday. Lester would throw 100 pitches and 66 for strikes. After posting a 3.60 ERA at home last season, Lester is an even better 2.70 this season. The Braves counter with Aaron Blair (0-1, 5.10 ERA), who gave up three runs off six hits over 5.1 innings in his season debut last Sunday vs. the Mets. Blair looked decent in Triple A, but clearly this is a massive step up in competition and we think the rookie will have a predictable letdown here. Look for Lester and the Cubs to take advantage.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on on the San Diego Padres.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case we think it’s a great opportunity to pull the trigger on a strategic run-line play. The Padres send Drew Pomeranz (2-1, 2.04 ERA) to the hill; the sixth year pro would strike out a career-high ten batters on Wednesday while allowing just an unearned run off four scattered hits and three walks in his team’s 8-2 win at Pittsburgh. Pomeranz now has 25 K’s over his first 17.2 innings of work. If his health holds up, clearly Pomeranz is on line for the best season of his career. On the other side of the coin is Madison Bumgarner (1-2, 3.91 ERA) who has struggled to open the season. Bumgarner is coming off his best outing so far this year, allowing two runs off five hits, to go along with eight K’s and one walk over seven innings vs. Arizona on Wednesday. Bumgarner’s inconsistent start warrants a closer monitoring and we’re unconvinced that he’s fully turned the corner yet. And that then leaves the door open for Pomeranz and the Friars today. Play on SAN DIEGO on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Cincinnati Reds.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case we feel that these two starters are a lot closer to each other than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to John Lackey (3-0, 3.66 ERA) who is coming off a gem, striking out 11, walking one and allowing only four hits over seven shutout innings in a victory over the Cardinals on Monday. It was obviously his best start of the season, but note that the veteran struggled in this spot last year, going just 4-6 with an elevated 3.82 ERA on the road last year. The home side counters with Dan Straily (0-0, 2.70 ERA), who earned a no-decision vs. the Rockies on Monday despite throwing five innings of one-run ball in his first start of the season. Straily would ultimately allow two hits while striking out four and walking two. The hard throwing right-hander has pitched well out of the bullpen, striking out eight over 8.1 innings of work thus far. We’re banking on Lackey to have a bit of a letdown here after his amazing outing, while we’re expecting Straily to build off his last start as he continues to fight for a permanent spot in the rotation. It’s a perfect set of situational circumstances and in a contest which we see being decided late, we’ll lay the short price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Play on the REDS on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Minnesota Twins.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, we think Ervin Santana is primed to go deep into this one, while we feel his counterpart Mat Latos is primed for a letdown. Both starters are coming off very good opening day outings, but the fact that Santana excelled is not suprising, but that Latos did, was definitely a shock. Latos would throw six scoreless frames and struck out two while allowing only a single hit vs. the A’s on Thursday. It was his first win since last July. Latos had a horrible spring, giving up 15 earned runs in 13 Cactus League innings. And note that Latos was particularly terrible in this spot last year, going just 1-4 with a pedestrian 4.98 ERA in all day games. Santana was also impressive in his first start, though he didn’t factor into the decision, he’d give up six hits, two earned runs and two walks over six innigns in his team’s 4-3 loss to Kansas City on Friday. The veteran would strike out seven, which doesn’t immediately sound super impressive, until you factor in that it was against the Royals, one of the hardest teams in the majors to rack up any strike outs against. Santana would close 2015 on well after missing most of the campaign because of suspension. Note that Santana would post a respectable 3.43 ERA in all day games last year. We think the talent disrcepany on the mound today justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the possibility of the big payout. Play on MINNESOTA on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Chicago Cubs.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case we definitely feel that the talent discrepancy on the mound today absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the small return. The Reds send Brandon Finnegan to the mound, he allowed seven runs off six hits and four walks over 3.1 innings to the White Sox on Saturday. Finnegan had a horrible spring, posting a 10.29 ERA and 2.07 WHIP, but somehow managed to earn a spot in the Reds’ depleted rotation. The home side counters with Jon Lester (1-0, 1.29 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits over seven innings while strikingout four and walking no one in a win over the Angels on Tuesday. The veteran would induce 10 ground balls in his opening game, after posting his best ground ball rate in three years with the Cubs last season. Lay the 1.5 runs on the CUBS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Washington Nationals.

It’s the home opener for the Nationals and we think they’ll put on a show for the crowd today. This is the first game of seven straight at home for the Nationals, who plays three against the Fish, before four against the Braves. The Nats are coming off a pair of late-inning wins in Atlanta, including yeserday’s 3-1 victory. The Marlins come to town after losing both opening games at home to Detroit. Miami slugger Giancarlo Stanton is 2 for 8 with a home run and struck out with the bases loaded to end yesterday’s 7-3 setback (we had the Tigers in that one). Note that the Marlins would drop seven of ten in the nation’s capital a year ago. Keep your eyes on Washington slugger Bryce Harper, who hit seven dingers and posted a 1.161 OPS vs. Miami last season. The visitors send out Adam Conley to the hill, who was decent last year and in spring training this season, going 4-1 with a 3.76 ERA in 2015, before posting a 1.86 ERA in three spring starts, but who was shelled for three runs in five innings at Nationals Park on August 28th. The home side counters with Tanner Roark, who had an up and down season in 2015 and who didn’t have his best stuff vs. the Marlins either, but who has also looked extremely sharp in spring training, posting a tiny 2.00 ERA with 17K’s to three walks over 18 innings of work. We’re going to call the pitchers a “wash,” but give the Nationals’ line-up the big nod in this matchup, indeed making WASHINGTON on the RUN-LINE the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Arizona Diamondbacks.

We had a play on the Rockies as an underdog as we anticipated Zack Greinke to have a letdown on Opening Night for his new team. We think Shelby Miller and the Diamondbacks bounce back after falling 10-5 on Monday. The Rockies dropped eight of ten in Arizona in 2015, but it’s interesting to note that Arizona lost its third straight opener. Miller received the worst run support in the majors playing with the Braves last year, but would go on to post a 3.02 ERA and 21 quality starts while earning his first All-Star appearance. The visitors counter with Chad Bettis, who was 8-6 with a 4.23 ERA in 20 starts last year. We’re giving Miller the big nod in this matchup. The talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the healthy plus money return. Play on ARIZONA on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports 

This is a 7* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Kansas City Royals.

We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

AAA Sports will have their full analysis for this selection posted shortly. No later than 6 hours before game time.

This is a 5* OPENING DAY ROUT on the St. Louis Cardinals on the RUN LINE.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and as good as Liriano looked last year, Wainwright is once again primed for a Cy Young season and it all gets started on Sunday afternoon. The Cards won 100 games last year but were upset by the Cubs in the NLDS. St. Louis lost slugger Jason Heyward, but Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty are expected to fill void. And with Matt Holliday and Matt Carpenter, along with the return of both Yadier Molina and Jhonny Peralta a little later in the month, the Cards once again sport a potent line-up. The Pirates also have a ton of talent obviously, with the likes of Andrew McCutchen and Josh Harrison who will be expected to shoulder the load after the team lost slugger Pedro Alvarez in the offseason. Francisco Liriano will get the opening day start with ace Gerrit Cole sidelined for a few more weeks. Liriano struggled against the Cards last year and in no way do we think he has the upper-hand in today’s matchup. In fact, we agree with the bookmakers here completely we’re going to call the starting pitchers a “wash.” Howeer, we’re going to give the nod to the Cards’ line-up and with an extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket, it makes this a price we can live with paying. Play on the CARDS on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the LA Angels.

The Angels continue to make their push towards the postseason and seek their eighth straight win tonight, beating Oakland 8-1 in yesterday's opener. LA is now a half-game in front of the Astros for the AL's second wild card spot. The home side has to be feeling pretty confident with sending the surging Garrett Richards (15-11, 3.73 ERA) to the mound, he enters this contest having won his last two decisions, posting a highly respectable 2.87 ERA in the process. Richards himself has to be feeling pretty comfortable vs. his opponent as well as he's posted a 2.37 ERA in his last three  vs. the A's. Oakland comes in with zero momentum having dropped nine of ten and four in a row away from home and now turns to veteran Barry Zito (0-0, 18.00 ERA) who will be making his final start of his career, coming in on three days rest after getting shelled for four runs off six hits over two innings in a 14-10 loss to the Giants on Saturday. Zito is an unremarkable 12-11 with a pedestrian 4.14 ERA over his last 30 starts vs. the Angels (not surprisingly, many of the Angels' sluggers have feasted off of Zito over the years, Albert Pujols is 8 for 20 with three homers lifetime against him. Mike Trout is 3 for 3 with two doubles, and Erick Aybar is 4 for 6). With a pivotal series vs. Texas on deck, LA can ill afford to "look past" these remaining "cream puffs," we look for the home side to jump out to an early lead to keep the foot on the gas into the latter innings, lay the 1.5 runs on the ANGELS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Washington Nationals on the RUN-LINE.

We feel that the massive talent discrepancy on the mound in this matchup absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the small return. This is the Nationals home finale and Max Scherzer will look to close the season strong despite the team having been eliminated from playoff contention. The Nats will especially be motivated to bounce back after yesterday's 12-5 loss to the Phillies. Scherzer (12-12, 2.98 ERA) has struggled down the stretch, going just 1-4 with a 4.85 ERA over his last nine starts but has a big opportunity today to reverse his fortunes vs. a Reds team which is in the midst of one of its longest losing streaks of 2015, yesterday's 8-1 setback to the Mets was its eighth in a row. The Nationals have motivation here as well as they've lost all six games vs. the Reds this year and that's bad news for Brandon Finnegan (1-1, 4.97 ERA) who gave up six runs over five innings in a 10-2 loss in St. Louis on Wednesday. We're giving Scherzer the big nod on the bump and the NATIONALS the big nod in the motivation department and with those two factors clearly working for us today, the RUN-LINE becomes the savvy move in this particular contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Rays are coming off a series with fellow cellar dweller Boston and had to then immediately hit the road and head North of the border to face the playoff bound Toronto Blue Jays, who will look to continue to distance themselves from the Yanks in the race for the AL East crown. The visitors hand the ball to Jake Odorizzi (8-8, 3.38 ERA) who despite getting shelled for four runs off eight hits over 5 2/3's innings vs. the Orioles on Sunday, somehow managed to escape with a no-decision; Odorizzi had just three K's, his lowest amount all season. The home side counters with RA Dickey (10-11, 4.05 ERA) who gave up two runs over six innings while striking out three in an unfortunate no-decision; note that it was the knuckle-ballers fourth quality start out of his last five and the veteran has to be feeling pretty confident that he can keep the momentum rolling this evening as he's a very respectable 8-3 with a 3.15 ERA in front of the home town crowd so far this season. The Yanks also have a favorable matchup at home vs. the White Sox over the weekend, putting pressure on Toronto to finish strong down the stretch; in our professional opinion, all signs are pointing to a lop-sided rout, lay the 1.5 runs for the small return with confidence.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Houston Astros on the RUN-LINE.

The visitors hand the ball to Jered Weaver (7-11, 4.74 ERA) who was ejected from his last start after hitting Kyle Seager of the Mariners in the fourth inning; note that Weaver looked horrible up to that point anyways, allowing three runs off six hits over 4 2/3's. Weaver has been a "Jekyll and Hyde" hurler all season, while he's a very respectable 4-2 with a 2.87 ERA at home, he's a deplorable 3-9 with a ballooned 6.91 ERA on the road. The home side counters with ace Dallas Keuchel (17-8, 2.56 ERA) who was shelled for nine runs off 11 hits over just 4 2/3's vs. the Rangers on Wednesday; he walked no one, struck out five and served up three homers. Clearly it was the southpaw's worst game of the year, but the good news is, this is a spot in which he's dominated in throughout the season, going a perfect 13-0 with a minuscule 1.49 ERA in front of the home town crowd. We're banking on Keuchel and the home side to come in razor focused after his disastrous last outing, in our opinion the massive talent discrepancy on the mound tonight absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the nice plus-money return; play on the ASTROS on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The visitors hand the ball to Jake Arrieta (19-6, 1.99 ERA) who comes in off another strong outing on Friday vs. the Phillies, giving up one run off six hits over eight innings, walking two while also striking out seven. Arrieta has not allowed an earned run in his last five starts spanning 37 innings and has been particularly effective on the road this year, going 12-1 with a tiny 1.72 ERA to date. The home side counters with AJ Burnett (8-5, 3.14 ERA) who gave up three runs off three hits over five innings, walking two and striking out three in a no-decision vs. the Brewers on Thursday. It was Burnett's first start since returning from the DL and the only runs the veteran allowed came on a three-run home run. Note that Burnett has to be feeling pretty confident in this spot as he's posted a highly respectable 2.33 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season.

We made a play on the Pirates in Game 1 yesterday, Chicago would then rally to take Game 2. Game 1 was 5-4, while Game 2 was 2-1. We're expecting another closely contested affair on Wednesday, while Arrieta gets the nod on the bump, the Pirates get the nod at the plate and have a clear advantage of playing in front of the home town crowd. While we wouldn't be surprised by an outright victory, we'll lay the short-price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; play on the PIRATES on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the LA Dodgers on the RUN-LINE.

We feel that that massive talent discrepancy on the mound today absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price in this matchup as we obviously expect a lop-sided result once the smoke clears at the end of the night. Clayton Kershaw (13-6, 2.15 ERA) has won eight straight decisions and he'll be looking to help his team win for a 16th time in its last 20 games. Kershaw has been particularly effective of late as well, going 8-0 with a minuscule 0.96 ERA over his past 12 starts, he won his third straight outing Tuesday, giving up one earned run over seven innings in his teams 6-4 victory over the Angels. And a date vs. the Rockies is just what the doctor ordered for Kershaw to keep the momentum rolling as he's 8-0 with a 2.62 ERA over his last nine meetings with Colorado and 8-2 with a tiny 1.60 ERA in 13 career matchups at Chavez Ravine. The visitors counter with Jon Gray (0-0, 5.17 ERA) who is still looking for his first big-league victory in his eighth start, most recently he gave up two hits over five shutout innings in Tuesday's 2-1 loss at San Diego. Gray has been consistently inconsistent this year though, while Kershaw is arguably the best pitcher in the league once again; play on the DODGERS on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Toronto Blue Jays.

A massive pitching mismatch combined with a red hot home side lineup adds up to a lop-sided destruction today, it's time to pull the trigger on a run-line selection. The visitors hand the ball to confirmed "gas can" Alfredo Simon (11-8, 4.89 ERA) who was shelled for eight runs off nine hits over 4 1/3's innings in an 8-7 loss to the Angels on Thursday. Simon has been horrible on the road this year as well, posting a ballooned 5.77 ERA away from friendly confines thus far. The home side counters with Mark Buehrle (13-5, 3.31 ERA) who is coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up five runs in a no-decision vs. the Rangers on Tuesday. Poor outings have been few and far between for the veteran southpaw though and he the Jays have to be feeling pretty confident in this position as Buehrle is a near-perfect 7-1 with a respectable 3.11 ERA in front of the home town crowd this year. With a chance to distance themselves further from the Yanks, we like Buehrle to bounce back from his worst effort of the season and for the JAYS to continue the mashing.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Houston Astros.

The Astros are rolling at the plate and with what we feel to be the superior starter backing them today, we look for the visitors to take this one down to the wire, making the RUN-LINE the savvy option in this particular matchup. Collin McHugh (13-7, 3.96 ERA) gets the call for the visitors and despite having gone 1-2 over his last four starts, has posted a tiny 1.67 ERA. Most recently the right-hander gave up one run over seven innings in a 1-0 loss to Tampa on Thursday, receiving no runs of support over his last two games and just one in his past three. McHugh has been solid though, he's given up two or fewer runs in six of his last seven outings and note that he did win his only start vs. the Yanks back on June 28th 3-1, going eight innings of two hit, one run ball. The home side counters with Michael Pineda (9-7, 3.97 ERA) who returns from the DL to fill in for CC Sabathia; Pineda has been all over the map with his consistency this season, but owns a respectable 2.57 ERA in two career starts vs. the Astros. We're expecting a battle today after yesterday's blowout, so in a game which we see being decided late or in extras, we'll gladly lay the price on HOUSTON for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance.

AAA Sports

This is a 6* BIG-CHALK RUN-LINE CHOKE-OUT on the LA Angels.

In a game that we believe will be decided late or in extra innings, we have no issues at all in laying the larger price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The Angels hand the ball to the red hot Matt Shoemaker (5-7, 4.01 ERA) who struck out ten in a no-decision vs. Cleveland on Tuesday, the third-year pro hasn't given up a single run in his last three starts spanning 19 innings (note that Shoemaker has a 4-1 record on the road and a respectable 3.96 ERA in all "night" games). The home side counters with Chris Sale (9-7, 3.52 ERA) who after giving up a career-high 12 hits in a loss to the Red Sox, would follow it up by allowing seven runs on six hits over 5 1/3's innings in another dud vs. the Rays on Tuesday. Sale has now given up seven runs in back-to-back starts lifting his season ERA to a pedestrian 3.52. Recent performance is an important factor to take into consideration and it's hard to argue the momentum in which Shoemaker comes in with, all signs do indeed point to the ANGELS on the RUN-LINE as the savvy move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* RUN-LINE PLAY on the LA Dodgers.

This package features three run-line plays on large favorites. These games feature three of the league's best pitchers and three which have seen much better times. The third matchup is between the Oakland A's and Jesse Chavez (5-10, 3.45 ERA) and Clayton Kershaw (8-6, 2.51 ERA) and the LA Dodgers. Chavez has regressed as the season has progressed, most recently he's coming off his fourth loss in his last five games, lasting just five innings, giving up four runs off eight hits, while striking out two, his lowest strikeout total this season. Unfortunately for Chavez, this is a spot he's really struggled in as he's just 2-6 so far this season in all "day" games and only 2-6 with a 4.53 ERA on the road. Things certainly don't get any easier throwing opposite Kershaw who tossed a complete game, three-hit shutout vs. the Mets on Thursday and who has struck out a staggering 38 batters over his last three starts without issuing a single walk over that stretch. Kershaw and the home side have to be feeling pretty confident today as he's gone 5-2 with a tiny 1.87 ERA at home so far this season. All signs point to an epic one-sided destruction, play on the DODGERS on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* RUN-LINE PLAY on the Seattle Mariners.

This package features three run-line plays on large favorites. These games feature three of the league's best pitchers and three which have seen much better times. The second matchup is between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Patrick Corbin (1-3, 3.68 ERA) vs. Felix Hernandez (12-5, 2.69 ERA) and the Seattle Mariners. Corbin is coming off a tough loss vs. the Brewers on Friday, giving up one run off four hits over seven innings to go along with 10 K's; it was his longest outing so far this year. Corbin though has already struggled in this spot in 2015, going 0-1 with a ballooned 7.20 ERA on the road and a poor 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA in all "day" games. The home side counters with Hernandez who won his second straight decision, this time over Toronto on Friday, holding the Jays to two runs over seven innings of work. "The King" has now given up four earned runs over his last 33 frames spanning his last five starts. And unlike his counterpart, this is a spot in which Hernandez has dominated in all season, 8-3 with a highly respectable 2.48 ERA in front of the home town crowd and a near-perfect 3-1 with a 1.72 ERA in all "day" games. The writing is on the wall and a blowout of epic proportions is in the cards, play on the MARINERS on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* RUN-LINE PLAY on the Tampa Bay Rays.

This package features three run-line plays on large favorites. These games feature three of the league's best pitchers and three which have seen much better times. The first matchup is between the Detroit Tigers and Justin Verlander (0-3, 5.57 ERA) vs. Chris Archer (9-7, 2.67 ERA) and the Tampa Bay Rays. Verlander is coming off his best outing so far this season but was still saddled with a no-decision, going eight innings and giving up one run on seven hits. Archer is also coming off a no-decision on Friday vs. Baltimore, giving up one run off five hits over six innings while striking out nine. Archer has to be feeling pretty confident that he can bounce back here though as he's posted a tiny 2.08 ERA in all "day" games so far this year. In our professional opinion, the talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price. Play on the RAYS on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 5* BIG-CHALK RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the San Diego Padres.

The Friars are shopping James Shields (8-3, 3.77 ERA) who comes into this one on top form, most recently he'd go five shutout innings, scattering three hits and striking out seven, unfortunately letdown by his bullpen in the no-decision; note though that Shields has dominated in this spot for bettors all season by going a near-perfect 5-1 with a 3.39 ERA in all "night" games to date. The home side counters with Noah Syndergaard (4-5, 2.97 ERA) who went five innings, giving up one run, but walking five in the difficult no-decision; note that while Syndergaard has been excellent at home in his rookie season, he's been anything but in all "night" contests thus far, a pedestrian 2-5 with a 3.58 ERA. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, Shields likely gets the slight nod, but in a contest which we expect to be decided late or in the extra innings, we have no problems at all in laying the larger price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Play on the PADRES on the RUN-LINE.

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This is a 7* BIG-CHALK RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Arizona Diamondbacks.

If you've been following us for a while, it's not a big secret that when it comes to MLB handicapping, we primarily base our picks on starting pitching and while we wouldn't be shocked to see the visitors take Game 1 of this interleague contest, we feel a lot safer laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The Mariners have won four of six behind some timely hitting, but I think they'll have their hands full today facing the Diamondbacks' Robbie Ray (3-5, 2.72 ERA) who is coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up five runs over 4 2/3's innings in a 5-3 loss to the Fish on Wednesday. No need to throw the panic button if your a D-Backs fan though obviously, those types of starts happen to all pitchers over the course of a season, note that Ray had gone a blistering 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA in his prior two outings. And note that Ray hasn't given up an earned run over 14 2/3's innings spanning two starts vs. the AL this year. This sets up as a classic letdown spot for the M's, fresh off a big series victory over the visiting Blue Jays, they now have a quick turnaround vs. the opposite league and turn to rookie Mike Montgomery (4-4, 3.25 ERA) who is 0-2 with a 9.22 ERA over his last three starts, most recently getting shelled for eight runs over 2 2/3's innings in a 9-4 loss to the Tigers on Wednesday. More bad news for Montgomery and the home side, Arizona does in fact come in with some momentum after taking three of four from Milwaukee over the weekend. All signs do indeed point to the DIAMONDBACKS on the RUN-LINE as the savvy move in this contest.

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This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Atlanta Braves.

The visitors hand the ball to Mike Bolsinger (4-3, 3.04 ERA), whose last start was cut short because of a technical glitch with the lights vs. the Nationals last Friday; note that Bolsinger has been hit-or-miss this year, going 0-1 with a 3.18 ERA on the road thus far. The home side counters with Julio Teheran (6-4, 4.53 ERA) who is coming off a somewhat forgettable outing, lasting 4 2/3's innings, allowing two runs off five hits while striking out five, not ultimately factoring into the final decision. It wasn't a completely horrible performance, but both Teheran and the Braves have to be liking their chances today as the hard-throwing right-hander is a perfect 5-0 with a tiny 2.18 ERA at home this season. Is Bolsinger the better hurler in this matchup? We don't think so, the value is simply too good to turn down here, this is a very reasonable mid-sized price to pay for an extra 1.5 runs of insurance; play on the BRAVES on the RUN-LINE.

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This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Minnesota Twins.

The visitors hand the ball to Kyle Gibson (8-6, 2.85 ERA) who picked up a win on Tuesday, giving up two runs off six hits over six innings in his team's 8-3 victory over the Orioles. Gibson would go on to walk just one, while striking out seven and has to be feeling pretty confident that he can keep the momentum rolling today, he's been as consistent as you could possibly ask for for quite some time now, having posted a highly respectable 2.56 ERA to go along with 27 K's over his last seven starts (and note that Gibson is 5-2 with a tiny 2.41 ERA in all "night" games this year and 3-1 with a 1.90 ERA in his last six road starts). The home side counters with Matt Shoemaker (4-7, 4.85 ERA) who has been decent of late, but who has just one win in his past eight outings due in large part because of a combined 13 runs of support in that span. The Angels would go on to sweep all seven games from the Twins last year and while I certainly wouldn't be shocked with an outright victory today, I do definitely feel a lot safer in laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance as I think the visitors can catch a somewhat complacent Angels team off-guard today after they swept their double-header with the Red Sox on Monday; play on the TWINS on the RUN-LINE.

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This is a 6* BIG-CHALK RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The visitors hand the ball to AJ Burnett (7-3, 2.11 ERA), who posted his seventh consecutive quality start on Saturday, giving up three runs off six hits over 6 1/3's innings in a no-decision vs. the Cards. The veteran comes into the second half with considerable momentum, he closed the first by allowing a total of 11 earned runs over 49 2/3's innings over his last seven starts and he has to be feeling pretty confident in this spot as he's 5-1 with a very respectable 2.70 ERA away from friendly confines so far this season. The home side counters with Yordano Ventura (4-6, 4.73 ERA) who picked up a win in his first start in over a month on Thursday, going five innings, allowing three runs off four hits, while walking three over the Rays on Thursday; it's significant to note though that Ventura is just 3-3 with a pedestrian 4.88 ERA at home this year. We believe that this matchup clearly favors Burnett, "recent performance" is an important factor to take into consideration when handicapping starting pitching and there's no doubt that the Pirates' hurler has the advantage in that department today. So in a contest which we foresee being decided late or in extra innings, we have no issues at all in laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Play on the PIRATES on the RUN-LINE.

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This is an 8* RUN-LINE play on the Seattle Mariners.

In a contest which I believe will be decided late or in extra innings, I have no problems at all in laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The visitors send Taijuan Walker (6-6, 4.64 ERA) to the hill, he's most recently coming off his fourth straight win, giving up one run off seven hits over seven innings with no walks over the Angels on Friday; note that Walker has allowed zero or one run in four of his last six starts. The home side counters with James Shields (7-2, 4.24 ERA) who was shelled for seven runs off nine hits over four innings in a 13-8 beatdown loss to the Giants on Thursday; note that Shields has in fact been scuffling for a while now, he's winless in his last four starts and has just one quality start during that span. I think these starters are much more evenly matched than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe, play on the MARINERS on the RUN-LINE.

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This is a 5* BIG-CHALK RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Chicago White Sox.

In a contest which I believe will be decided late or in extra innings, I have no issues at all in laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance in this one. Chris Sale (6-4, 3.02 ERA) will look to become just the second pitcher in history to record at least 10 K's in eight consecutive games and his team will be as equally as motivated after losing ten of its last 12 on the road and going 4-12 in its last 16 overall. Note that Sale's 34.4 percent of swings that miss is the best in MLB since 1999 and he has to be feeling pretty confident today though as he's 3-0 with a tiny 1.72 ERA in his last six interleague outings. The home side counters with Lance Lynn (5-4, 2.84 ERA) who has also been dominant against the opposite league, going 3-1 with a 1.02 ERA in six interleague starts at Busch Stadium. Obviously this isn't going to be a cake walk vs. the surging Cardinals but I think the combination of the red hot Sale and a desperate White Sox team on the RUN-LINE is indeed the savvy move in this contest.

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This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the New York Yankees.

The visitors trot out Adam Warren (5-4, 3.62 ERA) who comes in on top form, he'd most recently win his second straight decision on Friday vs. Detroit, giving up two runs over eight innings, scattering seven hits and walking no one. Note that Warren has posted a very respectable 5-2, 3.75 ERA record in all "night" games this season. The home side counters with Dallas Keuchel (8-3, 2.35 ERA), who is finally starting to show some cracks in the armour after a blistering start, most recently he'd give up a season-high five runs off five hits over six innings, including three homers, striking out seven, but walking four in a setback to the Mariners. Keuchel is having an awesome year, but a bit of drop off is expected obviously, I think this match-up is a lot more even than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe; so in a contest which I see being decided late or in extras, I have no issues at all in laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance on the YANKEES on the RUN-LINE.

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This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Cincinnati Reds.

I think this game will be a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe, so in a contest which I expect to be decided late or in extras, I'll look to grab the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Leake (4-4, 4.01 ERA) who comes in off a gem vs. the Marlins on Friday, going seven shutout innings, scattering two hits and three walks while striking out three in the process. Note that it was the third time this season that Leake did not allow a run in a start (also note that Leake owns a highly respectable 3.00 road ERA). The home side counters with Gerrit Cole (11-2, 1.78 ERA), who gave up two earned runs over seven innings in a victory over the White Sox on Thursday. The Pirates though have struggled in this spot all year long, they come into Tuesday having gone a poor 13-18 (-7.7 units) vs. division opponents. Cole has been fantastic, but it's hard to imagine the Pirates' ace continuing to be as productive as he has without some sort of drop-off, play on the REDS on the RUN-LINE.

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This is a 6* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Chicago White Sox.

In a contest which I believe will be decided late or in the extra innings, I have no problems at all in laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The visitors hand the ball to Jeff Samardzija (4-4, 4.67 ERA) who would toss seven innings in a no-decision to the Pirates on Thursday, giving up ten hits and two earned runs while striking out seven. Samardzija has been a bit of a letdown for the White Sox so far this year, but he'll be looking to improve upon his 2-1 road record throwing opposite veteran Mike Pelfrey (5-3, 2.97 ERA) who gave up one run over eight innings in a no-decision to the Cardinals on Thursday. Pelfrey has clearly exceeded everyone's expectations this season, he's struggled with consistency the last few years, but I believe he will have his hands full today with a focused and determined counterpart. I think the writing is on the wall and a very tightly contested affair is in the cards, lay the price for the WHITE SOX on the RUN-LINE.

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This is an 8* play on the New York Yankees on the RUN-LINE.

This is perhaps the biggest pitching mismatch on the board and as such, I have no problems at all in laying the 1.5 runs and the very reasonable price. The Phillies are clearly struggling in all facets of the game right now, but especially on the mound and at the plate. The visitors send Kevin Correia (0-1, 1.69 ERA) to the hill, who gave up six runs in his team's 6-4 setback to the Orioles on Wednesday. It was just the veterans second start of the year, he'd ultimately give up seven hits over five frames. The home side counters with Michael Pineda (8-3, 3.54 ERA) who struck out nine in a 2-1 win over the Marlins on Wednesday (the fourth time that Pineda has posted nine K's this year). Note that Pineda has been particularly effective at home this year in going 4-1 with a highly respectable 2.36 ERA. For the most part, MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and for this selection, that's all I'm concentrating on; Correia is a confirmed "gas can" and was signed only because of the utter devastation that the Phillies find themselves in, while Pineda is amongst the league's leaders in several categories. Suffice it to say, I think the writing is on the wall and a blowout is in the cards, play on the YANKEES on the RUN-LINE.

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This is a 6* BIG-CHALK RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Boston Red Sox.

Wade Miley (6-6, 4.88 ERA) is quietly starting to dominate and in a game which I believe will be decided late or in extras, I have no problems at all in laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Miley won for his fifth time in his last seven decisions, going 6 1/3's innings, giving up two runs off five hits while walking two and striking out a season-high eight to beat Atlanta on Monday. Miley throws opposite veteran Chris Young (6-2, 1.98 ERA) who has to be one of the biggest surprises so far in the first half; Young most recently went seven scoreless vs. Milwaukee on Tuesday, scattering five hits and striking out three. It's interesting to note though, if Young has had one area of weakness so far this season, it's clearly been his play during "day" games, where he's 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA. I like Miley to match pace with Young today, all signs point to a very tight game here, lay the price for the RED SOX on the RUN-LINE.

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This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the St. Louis Cardinals.

This is clearly the biggest talent discrepancy on the mound on Sunday and as such, I have no issues at all laying the 1.5 runs for the much more reasonable price. The visitors send Michael Wacha (9-2, 2.48 ERA) to the mound, he went 6 1/3 solid innings to notch his ninth win of the season vs. the Twins on Tuesday, ultimately giving up two runs off three hits while walking one and striking out five. For the most part Wacha has been as consistent as you could possibly ask for this season and note that he owns a fantastic 6-1, 2.08 ERA road record and a blistering 4-0 and 1.17 ERA "day" game record so far this year. The home side counters with Adam Morgan who is being recalled from Triple-A Lehigh Valley to make his major league debut. Morgan is 0-6 with a poor 4.74 ERA in 13 starts for Lehigh Valley and is 13-28 with a 3.53 ERA in 69 career outings in the minors. No need to overanalyze this one, lay the 1.5 runs with confidence, play on the CARDINALS on the RUN-LINE.

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This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Seattle Mariners.

The visitors send Dallas Keuchel (8-2, 2.04 ERA) to the hill; Keuchel has been superb overall this year, most recently he'd give up three earned runs in Monday's 6-3 victory over the Rockies (I actually had the Astros on the RUN-LINE in that contest). If there's been one small weakness in Keuchel's great overall campaign to date it's been his play on the road where he's just 2-2 with a respectable 2.56 ERA. The home side counters with Taijuan Walker (4-6, 5.00 ERA) who went seven innings in a 5-1 win over the Giants on Monday, scattering seven hits while striking out six and walking no one. Walker has quietly been dominating and I think the bookmakers are slow in recognizing that; note that he's now allowed a total of five runs over his last four starts and is 3-1 in that span (and note that Walker has excelled in front of the home town crowd so far this season in posting a 2.51 ERA). Great value in my opinion, in a contest which I think will be decided late or in extras, I have no problem laying the chalk for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Play on the MARINERS on the RUN-LINE.

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This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Tampa Bay Rays.

The visitors hand the ball to Erasmo Ramirez (6-2, 4.45 ERA) who would shut out the Nationals in a 6-1 win on Monday, going seven innings, scattering five hits and striking out four. Ramirez has now given up a total of three runs over over his last four starts and is 5-1 with a 4.98 ERA in all night games. The home side counters with Corey Kluber (3-8, 3.54 ERA) who is coming off a third straight loss to Detroit on Sunday, giving up two runs off four hits over five innings. Kluber has looked brilliant at times this season and extremely pedestrian in others, so far he's 2-3 with a 2.88 ERA in front of the home town crowd. This is a great situational play in my opinion, the oddsmakers are slow in recognizing how well Ramirez is throwing right now, with the public quick to back the Cy Young award winner, we're getting tremendous value on the visitors. So in a contest which I believe will be decided late or in extras, I have no problems at all laying what I deem to be a very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; play on the RAYS on the RUN-LINE.

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This is a 6* MID-CHALK RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Chicago White Sox.

These two starters have had completely different seasons to date, but I'm not counting out Jeff Samardzija quite yet and look for the home side to at the very least, keep this one close enough to get the cover with the extra 1.5 runs on the RUN-LINE. The visitors hand the ball to Gerrit Cole (10-2, 1.71 ERA) who gave up one run while striking out seven in a 4-3 victory over the Phillies on Saturday. It's obviously pretty hard to say anything negative about Cole this year, so I won't. I simply feel that he'll be in for a tougher matchup than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe, the home side counters with Smardzija (4-4, 4.84 ERA) who is coming off his best outing since May 27th, limiting the Rays to three runs off six hits over seven innings while walking one and striking out seven in a no-decision. After two straight sub-par outings, it was a big turn around for the veteran (and note, he's been particularly efficient at home where he's 3-1 with a respectable 3.57 ERA). In a contest which I believe will be decided late or in extra innings, I have no problem at all in laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; play on the WHITE SOX on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the LA Dodgers.

The massive talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the reasonable mid to lower sized price. The visitors hand the ball to Wandy Rodriguez (3-2, 3.03 ERA) who actually looked pretty good in his last outing, giving up one run over 6 2/3's innings vs. the Twins on Friday. Note though that the veteran has struggled with consistency throughout his career in interleague starts and is obviously in for a tough test here vs. the reigning Cy Young award Clayton Kershaw (5-3, 3.21 ERA) who would strike out 11 in a no-decision vs. the Padres on Friday, ultimately giving up one run over 6 2/3's innings of work. Kershaw is now fully back on track after a lacklustre start to the campaign, giving up just three earned runs over his last four starts; and note that he's been particularly effective at home once again this year, sporting a sparkling 4-1, 1.99 ERA at Chavez Ravine. I think the writing is on the wall and a blowout is in the cards, play on the DODGERS on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Houston Astros.

The visitors trot out Chad Bettis (2-1, 3.05 ERA) who went five frames, striking out six while allowing six hits in his team's 4-2 loss to the Cardinals on Wednesday, ultimately giving up three earned runs before being pulled. Bettis has been pretty decent this year, but faces a stiff test throwing opposite Dallas Keuchel (7-2, 1.90 ERA) who is coming off only his second loss of the season on Tuesday, giving up two runs off seven hits over seven innings of work in a 4-2 setback to the White Sox. Keuchel has now earned a quality start in each of his last three outings and allowed a total of four runs over 22 innings in that span. And unfortunately for Bettis and the Rockies, this is a spot in which Keuchel has dominated in all year, a perfect 5-0 with a tiny 1.29 ERA in front of the home town crowd. I think the writing is on the wall and a blowout is in the cards, I have no problem at all laying the 1.5 runs for the pick em price as this does in fact represent one of the biggest talent discrepancies on the board in my opinion; play on the ASTROS on the RUN-LINE.

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This is an 8* play on the Pittsburgh Pirates on the RUN-LINE.

The Phillies trot out veteran Sean O'Sullivan, who despite coming off a quality start in which he received a no-decision for, is having an awful season. O'Sullivan would give up three earned runs off seven hits and two walks over six frames in his team's eventual 6-4 win over the Giants on Sunday. That's the most run support that O'Sullivan had seen in quite a while, but note, the beleaguered veteran is 0-3 with a deplorable 7.02 ERA on the road this year. The Pirates counter with Gerrit Cole (9-2, 1.73 ERA) who would strike out seven off, giving up six hits and three walks over seven scoreless in a 3-0 win over the Braves on Sunday. Cole has been a complete stud this year and is a near perfect 4-1 with a tiny 1.95 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season. No need to overanalyze this one in my opinion, for the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, the talent discrepancy is so large that I have no issues at all in laying the 1.5 runs for the pick-em price; play on the PIRATES on the RUN-LINE.

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This is an 8* play on San Francisco Giants on the RUN-LINE.

The massive talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price. The visitors send Chase Anderson (1-1, 3.12 ERA) to the hill on Friday, who is coming off a no-decision vs. the Mets on Saturday, giving up one run off eight hits and a walk while striking out six. Anderson has been pretty decent this year, but has clearly been the victim of poor run support and now faces the daunting task of throwing opposite Madison Bumgarner (7-2, 3.38 ERA) who wasn't at his best vs. the Phillies on Saturday, but who still came away with the 7-5 win. Bumgarner went eight frames and gave up five runs, but would also strike out a season-high 11 batters. Bumgarner has won four straight decisions and is 2-1 with a very respectable 2.82 ERA in front of the home town crowd this year. I like the home side to come in focused here and expect it to find a way to win big in the opener of this three game set, play on the GIANTS on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 6* BIG-CHALK RUN-LINE CHOKE-OUT on the LA Angels.

The Angels broke their worst slide of the year with a big 8-2 win in yesterday's series opener, matching a season-high with 15 hits. The Rays are now mired in a losing streak of their own, scoring just nine runs in their last five games while batting a paltry .175. The visitors hand the ball to Jered Weaver (4-5, 4.60 ERA) who is coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up a season-high seven runs and nine hits with three home runs in Friday's 8-7 loss to the Yanks; note though that Weaver had gone 4-0 with a tiny 1.98 ERA over his previous five outings. And a date at Tropicana is just what the doctor ordered for Weaver to get back on track, he's 4-0 with a 2.93 ERA in five starts there with three straight wins. The home side counters with Erasmo Ramirez (4-2, 5.10 ERA) who gave up one run and seven hits over 5 1/3's innings in a 2-1 win over soft-hitting Seattle on Thursday. Ramirez has for the most part been pretty solid this year, but note that Angels are 8-5 (+2.8 units) vs. left-handed starters this season. In a contest which I think will be decided late or in the extra innings, I have no problem laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance, play on the ANGELS on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 5* BIG-CHALK RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the LA Angels.

Jered Weaver has struggled throughout his career at Yankee Stadium, but the veteran comes in on fire, going 4-0 with a tiny 1.98 ERA over his last five starts. The home side counters with Nathan Eovaldi who is 4-1 with a 4.40 ERA this year. Eovaldi has regressed though as the season has worn on, most recently he gave up three runs off four hits over 4 2/3's innings in Saturday's 5-3 win at Oakland; also note that he's 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in two starts against the Angels. Recent performance always plays a part in my handicapping process and I think these starters are going to battle deep into the latter frames and in a contest which I believe will be decided late or in extra innings, I have no problem at all in laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance.

AAA Sports

This is a 5* BIG-CHALK RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the LA Dodgers.

In a game which I believe will be decided late or in extra innings, I have no problem at all in laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. LA is the only team to beat St. Louis in the regular season with its starter Michael Wacha on the mound and it will look to duplicate that effort here today. Wacha (7-1, 2.27 ERA) had won his previous 11 regular-season starts prior to Saturday's 5-1 setback. Carlos Frias (4-2, 4.29 ERA) opposed Wacha in that game, giving up an unearned run over seven innings. And note that Frias has been particularly effective in these spots all year, going 3-1 with a minuscule 0.46 ERA in all "night" game this season. While I wouldn't be shocked to see an outright victory, as stated above, I feel a lot safer laying the price for the 1.5 runs on the DODGERS on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Seattle Mariners.

I played Felix Hernandez and the Seattle Mariners on the RUN-LINE the last time he started and the M's would take a 4-2 lead into the top of the 9th, only to then serve up a two-out, solo home run and win 4-3 in the end. I don't expect that to happen today and look for Hernandez (6-0, 1.85 ERA) and company to take care of business in impressive fashion at the end of the night. It's the best start of "The Kings" career, he's posted a tiny 1.47 ERA in winning five consecutive starts for the third time and second in as may seasons. And that's bad new for the Red Sox, as Hernandez is 4-0 with a 2.53 ERA in his last six starts vs. them, winning four straight at home vs. Boston, posting a minuscule 1.57 ERA in the last three. Rick Porcello (3-2, 4.50 ERA) has always fared well pitching at Safeco Field, but hasn't thrown there since 2011. Porcello has been pretty consistent, but obviously Hernandez gets the clear nod on the mound in this match-up, I think the writing is on the wall and a classic blowout is in the cards, play on the MARINERS on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Seattle Mariners.

The talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the small plus-money return today in my opinion. Felix Hernandez is 5-0 with a 1.73 ERA and is off to the best start of his career. Ironically though, his worst effort of the season came in an 8-7, 10-inning win at Oakland on April 12th, he'd give up three runs and eight hits over just five innings of work. "The King" will be out for a little redemption today. Note that Hernandez would then go on to win his next four starts behind a tiny 1.21 ERA with 33 K's over 29 2/3's innings. Also note that Hernandez has been particularly effective at Safeco Field where he's won all three starts with a 0.78 ERA and 31 K's over 23 innings of work (and finally note, Hernandez is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his last three home starts vs. the A's, completing at least seven innings of work in each). The M's are heating up large at the plate too, after Friday's 4-3, 11-inning win, they'd cruise to a 7-2 win yesterday behind three hits from slugger Robinson Cano, who now has a .357 average in front of the home town crowd. You'll also want to keep your eyes on Nelson Cruz, who leads the league with 14 home runs and tops the team with a .347 overall average. The A's are trending in the opposite direction right now, they've lost four straight and send Jesse Chavez (1-2, 1.80 ERA) to the hill; Chavez is 1-2 with a 2.45 ERA in three starts since being moved into the rotation. Chavez looked pretty good in his last outing, but note that he's 0-2 with a pedestrian 4.15 ERA in three starts vs. the Mariners (and finally note, Chavez has really struggled against the M's big boppers as Cano is 5 for 11 off him and Cruz is 3 for 5 with a pair of home runs and a double). Play on the MARINERS on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 6* RUN-LINE play on the Chicago White Sox.

I believe the talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the large plus-money return. Momentum is a very real factor and it's one in which I have found that the books often have a hard time properly quantifying into a line, and that's the case here. The White Sox have shown a lot of life of late, after a rough start to the year, they won 5-2 in Tuesday's series opener before then rallying from a three-run deficit in the eighth for a 7-6 win yesterday. Jose Quintana is 1-2 with a 5.28 ERA, the veteran is 0-1 despite a very respectable 1.93 ERA over his last two outings though, most recently giving up one run over seven innings in a 1-0 loss at Minnesota on Friday. Also note that Quintana is 2-0 with a 2.48 ERA in five career home match-ups against Detroit. And that's bad news for Detroit stater Kyle Lobstein who is 2-2 with a 3.91 ERA; Lobstein most recently gave up four runs in a 4-1 setback at KC on Friday. I like the White Sox to complete the sweep today and expect them to do it in blowout fashion, play on CHICAGO on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 6* RUN-LINE play on the Oakland Athletics.

For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and I think these two hurlers are pretty evenly matched, so in a contest in which I believe will be decided late or in the extra innings, I have no problem laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The A's won 2-1 on Tuesday, but will be eager to atone for yesterday's 13-0 setback and face Ricky Nolasco who is 1-1 with a 10.13 ERA thus far. Nolasco has actually enjoyed success vs. the A's in the past, but note that he gave up three runs over five innings in Saturday's 5-3 win over the White Sox on Saturday after being shelled for six runs over three innings in an 11-0 loss at Detroit in his only other start on April 8th. The visitors counter with Drew Pomeranz who is 0-2 with a 6.20 ERA in his last four outings, but pitches against the Twins for the first time (no Minnesota player has ever faced him). A couple of struggling starters, but I think the highly motivated and clearly under-achieving A's come to play today; play on OAKLAND on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the New York Mets.

A couple of red-hot hurlers face off in the rubber-match of the Subway series and in a game which I believe is going to be decided late or in extra innings, I have no problem whatsoever in laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The Mets 11-game win streak ended with a 6-1 loss on Friday, but the visitors would bounce back with an impressive 8-2 win yesterday. They have to be feeling pretty confident in a repeat performance by sending Jonathan Niese (2-0, 1.50 ERA) to the hill, the right-hander looks to hold an opponent to two earned runs or fewer for the eighth consecutive start, he's gone 3-1 with a 1.62 ERA over his last seven games dating back to last year (and note that Niese is 1-1 with a 2.05 ERA in four career starts vs. the Yankees). The home side counters with Nathan Eovaldi (1-0, 3.12 ERA), who is coming off his best start since being acquired in an offseason trade with Miami, giving up one run and scattering eight hits over seven innings of a 5-2 win at the Tigers on Tuesday; note though that Eovaldi gave up five runs over 10 1/3's innings over his first two starts and was a brutal 0-1 with a 7.15 ERA in two starts vs. the Mets last year. A great situational play in my opinion, lay the price on the METS on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Seattle Mariners.

In my opinion, the clear talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the healthy return in this matchup. After a slow start to the season the M's are starting to find their stroke both on the mound and at the plate, suffice it to say I am fully expecting this momentum to get carried over here. After a four-game losing streak, Seattle has won back to back games and slugged out 17 hits to win 11-10 vs. the Rangers yesterday, one day after Felix Hernandez struck out 12 in Saturday's 3-1 victory. And that's bad news for Astros starter Asher Wojciechowski who is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA to start the year. Wojciechowski struggled in his first outing after getting called up to replace Brad Peacock after he went on the DL and was a bit better in Monday's 8-1 loss to Oakland, giving up two hits over four scoreless frames. Seattle starter Hisashi Iwakuma can empathize, he's struggled over his first two starts in giving up nine runs and three homers in 11 innings, but note that the M's are 5-3 (+1.3) units vs. right-handed starters this year. I'm giving the Mariners the slight nod on the bump and a slight nod at the plate, all signs point to SEATTLE on the RUN-LINE as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 6* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Kansas City Royals.

I believe the talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the healthy plus money return. The Royals are rolling, they're off to their best start after 12 games since 2003. Twins' starter Kirk Gibson has had plenty of success vs. the Royals in the past, winning all four starts while posting a 1.38 ERA in the process, but note that he's just 1-1 with a 6.10 ERA so far this year. Minnesota has won four of five and I think is now primed for a letdown here, it would most recently pull off the 7-2 victory over the Tribe on Sunday. The home side counters with Edinson Volquez who is 1-1 with a 2.30 ERA, throwing opposite Gibson in last week's 3-1 setback. Volquez is 0-1 against the Twins in two starts despite posting a very respectable 2.63 ERA. I'm giving Volquez the big nod on the mound and that's more than enough to tip the scales in favor of KANSAS CITY on the RUN LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 6* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Detroit Tigers.

I think the clear talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the big plus money return today. The home side turns to Alfredo Simon who is 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA; note that Simon is a near-perfect 6-1 with a 1.72 ERA and a tiny .187 opponent batting average in seven April starts since the start of last year with Cincinnati. Most recently Simon would scatter two hits over eight innings of Wednesday's 1-0 win in Pittsburgh, striking out just two but walking none. His team comes in with plenty of momentum as well as the Tigers would clobber the White Sox 9-1 on Sunday, the lineup has a big .305 average. And that's bad news for Yanks' starter CC Sabathia who is 0-2 with a 5.68 ERA thus far; note that the veteran gave up four runs and seven hits over seven frames in Tuesday's 4-3 loss in Baltimore. Also note that I feel this sets up as a natural letdown spot for New York, after a sluggish start it's coming off a very satisfying sweep in Tampa Bay over the weekend. Play on DETROIT on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 5* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Oakland Athletics.

In a contest in which I believe will be decided late or in extra innings, I have no issues whatsoever in laying this price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The visitors send Drew Pomeranz to the hill, he'd post a 2.58 ERA in ten starts last year and would give up two hits over seven frames without a walk and six K's in his season opening 12-0 win over the M's on Friday. The A's have been giving their pitchers plenty of support, the team averages 6.1 runs per game so far this year. In fact, six of the A's nine starters are hitting better than .300 on the year. The home side counters with Collin McHugh, who gave up one run over six innings in his team's 5-1 win over Texas to improve to 8-0 with a 1.75 ERA over his last 11 starts. Unlike the A's though, the Astros are still struggling with consistency at the plate, they're hitting just 5 for 48 with runners in scoring position this year. Play on the ATHLETICS on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 6* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Detroit Tigers.

The Tigers are rolling and in a game which I believe will be decided late or in extra innings, I have no problems at all in laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. After losing 5-4 to Pittsburgh on Monday night, the Tigers bounced back with a 2-0 win on Tuesday. Detroit is batting .328 and averaging 6.6 runs per game so far this year. Alfredo Simon gets the call for the visitors, he has plenty of experience throwing against the Pirates while with the Reds and has gone 2-1 with a 4.23 ERA in his last four vs. them. Simon looked pretty good in his debut for his new club, giving up three runs over 5 1/3's innings in the Tigers' 8-4 win over Cleveland on Friday. The home side counters with Francisco Liriano, who missed his second scheduled start because of the birth of his daughter; Liriano gave up two runs, two hits and three walks over seven innings on April 6th vs. the Reds, leaving without a decision. Liriano would be wise to be wary of Tigers' slugger Victor Martinez though, who is 13 for 28 with a home run and six doubles against him. And note that Pirates' slugger Andrew McCutchen is hitting only .185 this year, but still somehow manages to lead the team with seven RBIs. Play on DETROIT on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 6* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Atlanta Braves.

In a contest which I expect to be decided late or in extra innings, I have no problem at all in laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Miami notched its second win of the year in Tuesday's 8-2 win over Atlanta, but I think will have a predictable letdown here. The visitors send Dan Haren to the mound, Haren would give up one run over six frames in his team's 10-9 win over Tampa Bay on Friday, not factoring into the decision. The home side counters with Eric Stults, who gave up five runs in a 5-3 loss to the Mets on Friday. Stults last faced the Marlins while with San Diego back on May 10th and would give up two runs over six innings of a 9-3 victory. Haren had a pretty decent season a year ago, but his one glaring weakness was his play on the road where he finished just 6-7 with a pedestrian 4.75 ERA. Stults on the other hand posted a 4.03 ERA in friendly confines in 2014. I think Haren is clearly the better pitcher, but simply think this is a bad match-up for him and one we can take advantage of; play on the BRAVES on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 7* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Cincinnati Reds.

I think Mike Leake and the Reds can keep this one close enough to escape with the ATS cover and have no problem laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance in a game which I believe will be decided late or in extras. The home side turns to Jon Lester, who was tagged for three runs off eight hits over just 4 1/3's innings in his teams 3-0 opening day loss to St. Louis. The Reds turn to Leake who gave up three runs and five hits and six walks over 5 2/3's innings vs. Pittsburgh on Wednesday, they'd need an extra inning to secure the win. Note that Leake has dominated the Cubs throughout his career though in posting a tiny 1.71 ERA in his last four vs. them. The last time the Reds visited Wrigley, they'd score just one run while getting swept from Sept. 15th-17th. Suffice it to say, I don't see that happening this week. Play on the REDS on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Detroit Tigers.

This is a big game for the Tigers and their ace Max Scherzer, when the smoke does finally clear at the end of this one, I expect the home side to walk away with a convincing victory and feel the value is this contest is in laying the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price. Detroit wrapped up a playoff spot last night, but is still seeking a fourth consecutive Central title and Scherzer will be looking to make a statement in his final regular-season start: “The goal is to win the division," manager Brad Ausmus said after his team’s 6-1 win over the White Sox. Scherzer (17-5, 3.19 ERA) is in the final year of his contract and could test the free agency market after this season; Scherzer comes in with momentum after giving up one run over seven innings in a 3-2 win over the Royals on Saturday. Note that despite owning a 5.00 ERA in two starts vs. Minnesota this year, Scherzer is 2-0 in those contests and is 8-1 with a very respectable 2.97 ERA in his last 11 outings in this divisional series. Minnesota looks to close out a losing season and will do so without the services of slugger Trevor Plouffe who broke his arm in yesterday’s 2-1 win over Arizona on Wednesday. The visitors counter with confirmed gas can Trevor May (3-5, 8.39 ERA) who was shelled for seven runs over 4 2/3’s innings in his team’s 7-3 loss to the Tribe on Saturday. May has been all over the map with his performances this year, I think he’ll be in for a long day and he’d better be careful of Tigers outfielder JD Martinez who is hitting a whopping .429 over his last 10 games vs. the twins and .500 over his last ten overall. A massive pitching mismatch; a massive offensive mismatch; a massive motviational and situational mismatch; all of these factors collide making the TIGERS on the RUN LINE the sharp wager in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 7* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the LA Dodgers.

I played the Dodgers on the money line yesterday and while it took them a bit to get going, they’d eventually pull away down the stretch for the comfortable victory. And now with league wins leader Clayton Kershaw about to take the mound, I look for an outright beatdown here and definitely feel the value lies in laying the 1.5 runs in this situation. Kershaw (19-3, 1.70 ERA) gave up two runs over eight frames in a 4-2 win over San Francisco on Sunday. Kershaw leads the league in many catetgories, including strikeouts per nine innings (10.63), opponents batting average (.190) and WHIP (0.83). Kershaw has won five straight behind a minuscule 1.13 ERA and not surprisingly the Dodgers have won 18 of his last 19 outings. Kershaw has dominated the Cubs throughout his career, he’s 3-2 with a 1.60 ERA lifetime against them. And that’s bad news for Cubs scheduled starter Edwin Jackson (6-14, 6.09 ERA) who hasn’t thrown since August 20th when he was shelled for seven runs off eight hits over just 2 2/3’s innings in an 8-3 loss to the Giants. Jackson is a  confirmed gas can, he owns the worst ERA in baseball among 96 pitchers who have started at least 25 games. The Cubs bullpen looked brutal yesterday and is going to be called upon early today with the volatile Jackson on the mound, I think the surging visitors take full advantage; play on LA on the RUN LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 6* BIG-CHALK RUN-LINE CHOKE-OUT on the Toronto Blue Jays.

I think this is a great situational play, the visitors will be plenty motivated here, while the home side is primed for a letdown after locking up the AL East title last night. Even if the Orioles run the table (11 games), it may still not be enough to secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, and as such, I think the the home side will take advantage of this situation and rest some regulars today. The Orioles hand the ball to Bud Norris (13-8, 3.74 ERA) who has been exceptional of late, he’s 3-0 with a 2.16 ERA vs. the Jays this year, but I think will have his hands full vs. this determined visiting side. The visitors counter with JA Happ (9-10, 4.28 ERA) who has lost five of his last six despite posting a respectable 3.93 ERA. Note that Happ was dominant vs. the Rays on Friday, giving up one run and two hits over seven frames while walking one and strking out seven in an unfortunate 1-0 setback. And that’s bad news for Baltimore as Happ has been excellent against it, going 1-2 with a tiny 2.32 ERA in his last five in the series (note that he’s gone 1-1 against it this year, giving up just three runs in 14 innings with 18 K’s and one walk). I think the pitchers are a “wash” and believe they’ll battle each other into the latter frames, so in a game which will be decided late or in extras, I have absolutely no problem laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; play on TORONTO run-line.

AAA Sports

This is a 7* MID-CHALK RUN-LINE CHOKE-OUT on the Cleveland Indians.

I played the Tribe on the run-line yesterday (-1.5 -120) and I think they offer a lot of value on the R.L. again today, this time laying what I feel to be a very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Cleveland comes into this game with some momentum, it swept yesterday’s double-header with the Twins easily; the Indians also come into this game with revenge on the mind (also a possible playoff spot!). "Heading to Detroit, you want to be on a high note. We have three big games ahead of us. You want to make sure you win them all," Cleveland pitcher T.J. House explained last night. "I'm excited with where we're headed. We have a good ballclub and we're (going) in the right direction." Cleveland though has been outscored 32-15 in dropping four of its last five vs. the Tigers. Detroit had been rolling merrily along until Wednesday when it lost for the first time in its last four games in listless 3-0 setback to the Royals. So here’s a huge opportunity for Cleveland to make a move, in fact I would call this a season defining series for the visitors who sit just 3.5 games back of the home side in the playoff race. Detroit turns to David Price (13-11, 3.33 ERA) who has been horrible of late, he’s 2-3 with a pedestrian 4.10 ERA in seven starts since coming over from Tampa Bay. Price in fact owns a ghastly 7.13 ERA over his last three outings after getting shelled for five runs in his team’s 5-4 loss to San Francisco on Saturday. Note that Price was also lit up for eight runs off 12 hits over just two innings in an 8-4 loss to the Yanks on August 27th. The only time he’s looked any good of late was on September 1st vs. the Indians, giving up one run and stirking out eight over seven innings in a 12-1 win. So which Price is going to show up today? I’m inclined to believe it will be the struggling one, Cleveland comes in focused and I think can really take advantage here. The visitors also have to be feeling pretty good about their chances in sending the red hot Carlos Carrasco to the hill, who is 4-0 over his last six starts, posting a miniscule 0.70 ERA in that span. Most recently Carrasco struck out eight and came within a single out of recoridng his first shutout in his team’s 2-0 win over the White Sox on Sunday. Carrasco comes in having had success vs. Detroit this season, while he allowed a season-worst 10 hits against the Tigers at the beginning of the month, he managed to work around any damage and would yield just one run while striking out a career-high ten over 5 1/3’s innings. I think this sets up as a natural letdown spot for Detroit after it suffered its first loss in over a week; conversely, the Indians come in filled with confidence and vengeance on their minds. While the outright win is obviously not out of the question, in a contest which could be decided late or in extras, I’ll gladly lay the price for the runs; play on DETROIT on the RUN LINE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Cleveland Indians.

I think the clear talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price. Cleveland’s playoff chances are dwindling after a sluggisth stretch, but I think the home side finds a way to win convincingly today. The Tribe would lose 4-3 in Tuesday’s opener, yesterday’s game was postponed due to rain. Note that Cleveland actually outhit the Twins 9-5 in Tuesday’s setback, but was just 1 of 10 with runners in scoring position. The home side now turns to ace Corey Kluber (14-9, 2.47 ERA) who gave up five hits and one unearned run in a 3-1 victory over the White Sox on Saturday; while he was 0-3 over his previous four starts, note that the hard-throwing right-hander had posted a very respectable 3.42 ERA during that stretch, but received just five total runs of support. The visitors counter with Kyle Gibson who is 1-2 with a ballooned 5.45 ERA over his last six starts which included a 7-5 setback to Cleveland on August 19th; he’d give up five runs over 5 1/3’s innings. Gibson comes in with zero momentum as well, he’d give up four runs over seven frames in a 5-4 loss to the Angels on Thursday. A superior starter and a ton of motivational factors equal a RUN LINE play on the INDIANS in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Cincinnati Reds.

I think this is a good spot to pull the trigger on a strategic “run line” selection and believe that the clear talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the small return. The struggling home side turns to ace Johnny Cueto (15-7, 2.20 ERA) to get it back on track; Cueto (15-7, 2.20 ERA) will be hungry here, he had his five-start win streak snapped in his team’s 7-3 loss at St. Louis last week, the hard-throwing right-hander was shelled for five runs off a season high-tying seven hits over just five innings of work. A date at home is just what the doctor ordered for Cueto to get untracked though, he’s posted a very respectable 1.74 ERA over a six-start win streak in Cincinnati. And while past success guarantees nothing in the future, note that Cueto has dominated the Cubbies throughout his career in going a perfect 5-0 with a 1.19 ERA in his last seven vs. them. Cueto’s team will be looking to build off its 10 hit peformance in Sunday’s 5-3 win over Atlanta on Sunday, which is bad news for inconsistent Chicago starter Travis Wood (7-11, 4.91 ERA); Wood has been the very definition of a “gas can” of late, in his last 12 starts he’s 0-6 with a ballooned 5.45 ERA. And unforutnatley for Wood, he can’t be looking forward to seeing Cincinnati, he’s 1-5 with a pedestrian 3.68 ERA in eight career starts vs. it. The Cubs are one of the worst on the road they’re just 26-39 away from friendly confines, while of course the Reds for the most part have been successful in front of the home town crowd in 2014, coming into this contest at 34-31 in Cincinnati. I think Chicago comes in complacent, it’s coming off a very satisfying three game sweep at home over the Orioles, while the Reds are fighting for their playoff lives; play on the REDS on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* RUN-LINE GAME OF THE YEAR on the Seattle Mariners.

As a situational handicapper, these are exactly the types of games that I’m constantly looking to take advantage of, for a number of different reasons I feel that the home side is well worth laying the 1.5 runs for the small return in this particular matchup. Toronto just took two of three from the Tigers at home, including yesterday’s 6-5, 19-inning win, the longest game in franchise history. Immediately following the game the weary club boarded a plane for the West Coast, where it must play a late PST game: game time is at 10:10 PST, which is 1:10 AM EST. This is simply a horrible spot for Toronto and a beautiful one for Felix Hernandez (12-3, 1.97 ERA) and the Seattle Mariners. Hernandez is on fire, he’s gone 15 straight starts of at least seven innings or more with two runs or fewer; note that Hernandez is 8-2 with a 1.42 ERA, 0.75 WHIP and .168 opponents’ batting average in that span. Most recently Hernandez beat the Braves 4-2, giving up a run and four hits while striking out eight over eight frames. While Hernandez has struggled against the Jays in the past, I think that only adds fire and motivation for tonight’s game. It all falls on Toronto starter Drew Hutchinson (8-9, 4.39 ERA) who will have pressure to throw into the latter frames as his bullpen is drained after last night’s marathon. As good as “Hutch” has been, I’m giving Hernandez the big nod on the mound and the M’s the big advantage at the plate, those two deciding factors make the sharp play in this matchup the home side on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Detroit Tigers.

While Justin Verlander has endured some highs and lows this year, I believe he holds a significant advantage over his counterpart today and that the talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price. After pulling off a major trade to acquire David Price from the Rays, Verlander (9-9, 4.79 ERA) will certainly be motivated today; note that Verlander was decent in a 4-0 loss to the Angels on Saturday, giving up three runs over seven innings of work. However, if history is any precedence, then the home side is indeed loving its chances today as Verlander is a spectacular 24-2 with a very respectable 2.75 ERA in 31 career interleague starts (which includes winning all three that he’s been a part of this year). He’s been even better when throwing at home vs. the Senior Circuit, a perfect 14-0 with a tiny 2.14 ERA in 15 home starts vs. the NL. And that of course is bad news for a Rockies team which has lost six-straight interleague road games and 18 of its last 22 such situations overall. Colorado has in fact lost 15 of its last 17 on the road and 29 of its last 39 overall after yesterday’s lacklustre 3-1 setback to the soft-hitting Cubbies. To add insult to injury, top sluggers Michael Cuddyer and Troy Tulowitzki are both injured right now. The visitors counter with Franklin Morales (5-5, 5.18 ERA) who is 1-1 with a 3.05 ERA in four starts since returning to the rotation; take note though that there is some room to read between the lines as Morales has struggled with his control by walking 14 in 20 2/3’s innings of work, matching a career high with five walks in a 7-5 loss to the Pirates on Sunday. Detroit enters this series with renewed confidence after its big acquisition, I think Verlander answers the call and that the value in this game is clearly the Tigers on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Atlanta Braves.

Atlanta has looked pretty pedestrian of late, but I look for it to bounce back here with a convincing effort with what I believe to be the clearly superior starter back it tonight. The Braves turn to Julio Teheran (9-6, 2.64 ERA), who has fallen on a bit of hardluck of late by being supported with two runs or fewer in 11 of his 21 starts, going 1-5 despite a very respectable 2.82 ERA in those outings. Most recently Teheran would match a seaon high with 11 K’s and give up just one run over seven innings of work in an unfortunate 3-1, 10 inning loss to Miami on Monday. A little home cooking is just what the doctor ordered for Teheran though where he enters 3-1 with a minuscule 1.23 ERA in 10 starts, including a perfect 3-0 with an almost non-existent 0.80 mark over his last six. The visitors counter with Odrisamer Despaigne (2-1, 1.31 ERA) who has been sharp so far, most recently he’d fall four outs shy of becoming the first Padre to toss a no-hitter in his team’s eventual 3-1 win over the Mets on Sunday. The book is still definitely out on Despainge though in my opinion, the sample size is way too small and I think the youngster is going ot have his hands full with this clearly under-achieving home side. The Friars have been swinging a better bat of late, but I think the writing is on the wall today as this, in my opinion, clearly sets up as a classic letdown spot for the visitors; all signs point to a blowout, BRAVES on the RUN LINE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* RUN-LINE DETRUCTION on the Baltimore Orioles.

While Jered Weaver has been much better over the last couple of months, beleagured Orioles pitcher Chris Tillman has quietly been improving himself, and while I do feel that the outright win is obviouly not out of the question here, I will in the end recommend laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Baltimore is surging, it has a major league-best 122 home runs and has posted back-to-back 4-2 victories over the Angels. Weaver (10-6, 3.43 ERA) has gone 3-0 with a 2.78 ERA over his last six outings, most recently giving up two runs over six frames in Friday’s 3-2, 16-inning home win over the M’s. The visitors counter with Tillman (7-5, 4.03 ERA) who despite owning a 4.96 ERA in 12 road starts this year, is 6-0 in that span; note that he’s been much better of late, giving up just four runs over his last 20 2/3’s innings of work. And note that Tillman is 2-0 with a very respectable 1.84 ERA in two career starts vs. LA. And that’s bad news for an Angels side which has totaled just 12 runs and hit a meager .184 with runners in scoring position while dropping three of thier last four. A big opportunity here for the O’s, play on the RUN LINE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Chicago White Sox.

Both teams are coming off losses, but I believe the clear talent discrepancy on the mound tonight absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the decent return on investment. The Royals have fallen below .500 for the first time since early June as their offense has struggled, scoring just five runs in three losses at Boston over the weekend. The home side will be pleny motivated here as well after the Royals swept them at US Cellular earlier in the season and it has to also be liking its chances in sending ace Chris Sale (8-1, 2.08 ERA) to the hill; Sale is 2-0 with a 1.52 ERA over his last three starts which included allowing one run over 7 2/3’s innings in his team’s 5-4 loss at Boston in his last outing. Note that the hard-throwing southpaw will be pitching on 11 days rest and that he’s 2-0 with a very respectable 2.03 ERA with 18 K’s in 13 1/3’s innings when getting at least six days rest between starts. The visitors counter with Jeremy Guthrie (5-8, 4.56 ERA) who has been shelled in his last two starts, going just four frames in each; most recently he gave up eight runs in a 16-4 loss to Detroit. While Guthrie has enjoyed some success against the White Sox in the past, there’s no question that he’s struggling right now and “recent performance” is always a key factor that I look at when making a wager of this type; I like Chicago to bounce back from last night’s defeat and to cover the spread on the RUN LINE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Milwaukee Brewers.

Despite facing one of the best pitchers in the league, I think the Brewers keep this one close enough to at the very least sneak away with the cover on the RUN-LINE. The visitors send Adam Wainwright (11-4, 1.79 ERA) to the hill; Wainwright has been nasty of late, he’s 3-1 with a 0.79 ERA over his last six starts. Note that while he’s 9-6 with a 2.25 ERA in 19 career starts against the Brewers, he’s 0-2 with a pedestrian 4.50 ERA in his last three at Miller Park. The home side counters with Jimmy Nelson (1-0, 0.00 ERA) who has recalled from Triple-A on Thursday to replace Marco Estrada; Nelson went 5 2/3 scoreless innings in a 7-1 victory at Miami on May 25th to earn his first major league win. This is an important game for Milwaukee, it’s in a tight race with the Cardinals and it will be trying desperately to break a six-game slide, it hasn’t lost seven-straight in nearly two years. I believe the focus and determination the home side brings could very well see it win this one straight up, but in a contest which will likely once again be decided late or in extras, I definitely don’t have any problems laying this reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Houston Astros.

LA has taken the first two games of this four-game set, but with what I believe to be the superior starter backing them today, look for the visitors to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe; in a contest which I think will be decided late or in extras, I have no issues at all laying what I deem to be a very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The home side sends Hector Santiago (0-7, 4.08 ERA) to the hill; Santiago has a 2.30 ERA in three starts since returning from Triple-A Salt Lake, but he’s 0-1 while getting only six total runs of support in those outings. Unfortunately a start vs. the lowly, but hungry Astros is not likely not what the doctor would order for him to get untracked as he’s 0-1 with a ballooned 5.19 ERA in three appearances, including one start vs. them. Houston counters with Scott Feldman (4-5, 3.92 ERA) who is 1-1 with a repsectable 3.47 ERA over his last four starts. Most recently Feldman gave up two runs while scatting seven hits over six frames in a 6-4 win over Detroit on Sunday. While he’s struggled at times vs. the Angels in the past, Feldman still gets the slight nod on the bump in this matchup in my opinion and I think Houston keeps this one competitive; play on Houston on the RUN LINE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Washington Nationals.

I took the Nationals on the RUN-LINE in Game 1 of this series and they’d also dominate in Game 2; I feel Game 3 also sets up as another lop-sided destruction and that the clear talent discrepancy on the mound tonight absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price. The Nats are 11-3 with a 2.22 ERA in their last 14 home games and send ace Doug Fister (6-2, 2.83 ERA) to the hill; Fister missed the first five weeks of the season with an injury, but he’s gone on to post a fantastic 4-0, 1.93 ERA record in front of the home town crowd since his return. Fister is 1-1 with a 3.15 ERA in his last three outings overall. In his only career start vs. the Rockies, Fister would toss six scoreless frames with six K’s in the 4-1 win while with Detroit in 2012. The visitors counter with Tyler Matzek (1-2. 4.24 ERA), who after winning his debut has been downright awful in going 0-2 with a ballooned 4.96 ERA in three starts since. I have a hard time seeing the Rockies mustering much of an offensive attack and look for the home side to keep the foot on the gas and bury this team early; the value in this game is clearly the home side on the RUN LINE.

AAA Sports