This is an 8* on BALTIMORE +1.5 (RUN LINE)

Baltimore has lost 13 of the last 15 times they’ve played Boston. But one of the two wins came in the opener of this series, 4-2 on Tuesday. The Red Sox struck back with a 6-0 win last night, which ended a four-game losing streak. The Orioles have been more competitive than usual over the past week, winning three of the last six games. They have been relegated to the role of spoiler in this AL Wild Card race and would like nothing more than to help knock Boston out of the playoffs. The Red Sox aren’t nearly as good on the road where they are just 39-37 and scoring 4.3 runs/game. They allow that same number of runs per game, so we give the O’s a chance to steal another one tonight. At the very least, they’ll keep the game within a run. The Red Sox are 1-5 in Nick Pivetta’s last six starts and he’s pitched better than usual of late. Pivetta has never lost to Baltimore, but his ERA in four starts against them this year is 4.15. Alexander Wells is still looking for his first win after eight starts and the good news is he’s coming off the best one since his season debut. There’s a lot of pressure on Boston right now with two teams within a game of them for that second Wild Card. Might they crack? Play on BALTIMORE +1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is a 10* on CIN -1.5 (RUN LINE)

The Reds are 11-3 against the Pirates this year. They beat them 9-5 on Monday. So we’ve got no hesitation about playing the run line today as the home team should once again easily win by two or more runs. Pittsburgh, as you know, is one of the worst teams. They actually did lead 5-0 early on yesterday, but from there it was all Reds, who scored the game’s final nine runs. There was an 85-minute rain delay, so maybe that’s why Cincinnati started slow out of the gate. What we do know is that Pittsburgh probably won’t score five runs again tonight. They have the lowest run total of any team. They put up only 3.4 per game on the road where they are now 22-53. Tyler Mahle, who is tied with Wade Miley for the team lead in wins on the Reds’ staff, is 3-0 vs. the Pirates this year with a 1.47 ERA. Making today’s starting pitching matchup even less favorable for the visitors is that Mitch Keller is 0-3 with a 7.86 ERA in six career starts vs. Cincinnati. The previous series that these teams played saw all four games decided by one run. So the odds of that happening again are pretty small. The Reds are three games behind a Cardinals team that has won nine straight for the second Wild Card. They need to rack up wins. Play on CINCINNATI -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is a 9* on TOR -1.5

It’s been a weird season for the Blue Jays (82-64), who have played “home games” in Dunedin, FL and Buffalo, NY. They were finally allowed to cross the border in late July and it was not long after that they began to surge. Winners in 16 of their last 19 games, Toronto finds itself in position to make the playoffs as a Wild Card. But they cannot afford to let up. There are five teams separated by only four games in contention for the two Wild Card spots. Boston is tied with Toronto and the Yankees are a half-game back. We don’t see there being any sort of letdown Friday as the Blue Jays face a Twins team that is already eliminated from playoff contention. Minnesota (64-83) lost 12-3 at home to Cleveland on Wednesday as it’s been a very disappointing season where they’ve dropped 28.5 units. That has them as the second worst team to bet on in 2021. Only Arizona (-37.1 units) has been less profitable. We haven’t hesitated to lay the -1.5 on the run line with Toronto recently. The last time we did so, they won 22-7 against Baltimore! Only three teams have a better run differential for the year. We like Hyun-Jin Ryu being on the mound tonight as Minnesota is 16-33 vs. lefties. Michael Pineda has a 3-7 team start record for the Twins since June 1st.  The Blue Jays have won 18 of the 22 games this season where they closed as a home favorite of -175 or higher. They’ll win this one by at least two runs. Play on TORONTO -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is a 10* on TB -1.5

Before they lost two of three in Toronto, the Rays lost two of three in Detroit last weekend. The deciding game was a real back and forth affair as the Tigers rallied back from a three-run deficit in the eighth inning, then scored two runs to win the game in the bottom of the 10th. Things should go quite differently at Tropicana Field though. So much so that we are willing to lay the -1.5 on the run line with the Rays tonight. The Tigers just aren’t very good outside the Motor City. Their record as a road underdog of +175 to +250 is 9-17 this year and going back to 2019, the record is 21-47. Tampa Bay has captured 37 of its last 51 games as a favorite. (They were underdogs in all three games at Toronto). When they’re at home, the Rays are winning by an average of 1.7 runs/game. Key to that margin is holding visitors to 3.3 runs/game. It’ll be Louis Head as an opener, followed by Dietrich Enns pitching for the Rays tonight. Enns had a really impressive relief effort against the Tigers last weekend where he didn’t allow a single base runner for four innings. With him expected to pitch the bulk of today’s game, don’t look for the Tigers to score much. Most don’t realize this, but the Rays are the top offensive team in baseball. Tyler Alexander has a 9-2 team start record for Detroit including a 10-4 win over the Rays last weekend. But we see his luck running out here. His two starts in September have lasted a combined eight innings. The Rays have a huge edge in the bullpen in this matchup. Play on TAMPA BAY

This is a 9* on MIL -1.5 (RUN LINE)

The Brewers have won five in a row overall. As they inch closer to the NL Central pennant, they can become the first team to 50 road wins on Tuesday when they head to Detroit. On paper, it looks like a very easy week for Milwaukee as they have two games here followed by three at home vs. the Cubs. At some point during a 10-game home stand, they will clinch the division. It’s just a matter of time. A string of strong pitching performances, including MLB’s 9th no hitter of 2021 on Saturday, have propelled the Brewers to an 89-55 record. They’ve scored 10 or more runs in three of the last five games, outscoring opponents 38-7. Detroit did just take two of three from Tampa Bay over the weekend, but they aren’t going to finish .500 and are just 4-10 in their past 14 home games. They are also 1-6 off their previous seven victories. Milwaukee has won seven of eight following an off day and 36 of its last 52 games overall. Tuesday’s starter Freddy Peralta has a 2.72 ERA and 0.95 WHIP for the Brewers and the team is 6-1 in his last seven starts. Detroit’s Wily Peralta (no relation) has not won a decision since July 18th. Pretty one-sided in our estimation. Why not lay the -1.5? Play on MILWAUKEE -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is an 8* on TOR -1.5

Toronto has finally done it! They caught the Yankees for the second Wild Card and are only a game behind Boston for the top Wild Card spot. They’ve won eight of nine after sweeping a doubleheader from Baltimore in remarkable fashion on Saturday. The first game saw them come back to win 11-10 with a four-run seventh (remember doubleheaders are only seven innings now). The second game was even wilder as they failed to get a single hit through the first six innings before erupting for an 11-run seventh! It’s Baltimore that they are facing again Sunday. After taking two crushing losses the previous day, we can’t see a team that has fallen to 50 games below .500 having much resolve today. Thus, our call is for the Blue Jays to win this game by two or more runs. From a value standpoint, the run line is obviously much better than a straight money line bet here. Steven Matz should handle a feeble Orioles lineup on Sunday. The Toronto left-hander has allowed no more than two earned runs in seven consecutive starts. Eight different Blue Jays homered on Saturday as the team scored 22 runs in 14 innings. They’re going against a rookie in Zac Lowther on Sunday. This is just Lowther’s third start and seventh appearance at the big league level. He was good in his most recent start, but the first one (which was back in May) saw him give up seven runs in 2.3 innings. Look for the Jays to rough him up on their way to a convincing win. Play on TORONTO -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is an 8* on TOR -1.5 (RUN LINE)

Toronto looks to be rising from the dead. They’d lost 9 of 13 after falling to Detroit 2-1 on 8/27 and their playoff chances certainly looked to be on life support. But they’ve responded by winning six of seven and scoring 21 runs in the last two games. Each of those last two games were against Oakland and now the Jays can sweep on Sunday. They came from way behind on Friday, rallying three different times including a six-run eighth inning and a walk-off Marcus Semien three-run HR. Yesterday saw them jump out to a big 10-3 lead and hold on to win 10-8. Hard not to like this team right now, particularly with Robbie Ray starting. Ray has been great this year as his 14-12 TSR is highly misleading. He’s delivered seven straight quality starts where he’s allowed only nine runs. It’s a 1.72 ERA in that stretch and he has 35 strikeouts vs. only two walks his last three starts. Oakland is fading right now as they’ve lost 6 of 10. Cole Irvin’s last three starts have produced a 5.93 ERA and 2.121 WHIP. The fact he has the same TSR as Ray over his L7 starts is criminal. Let’s ride the hot team in this one with a pitcher who is due for another win. Play on TORONTO -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is a 10* on MIL +1.5

The Brewers have come in and taken the first two games against the Giants. That’s impressive. San Francisco has the best overall record in the majors as well as the highest win percentage at home. But nobody has more road victories in 2021 than the Brewers, who are 45-23 away from American Family Field. Only two other teams, the Giants being one of them, have 40 road wins this season. We’re not sure if the Brewers will finish the sweep here tonight, but we do like them getting 1.5 via the run line. Milwaukee went off as the favorite for each of the last two days. It says a lot that oddsmakers would favor them in San Francisco. Having Burnes and Woodruff start was a big reason for that. Tonight’s starter is Brett Anderson. The team has lost the previous four times he’s started. So we understand why the line has “flipped” the Giants' way. However, Milwaukee has simply been playing better of late. They have won 7 of 10 whereas the Giants have lost 4 of 5. Kevin Gausman hasn’t lost since July 30th for the Giants but has allowed a total of 10 runs his last three starts. Milwaukee led last night’s game 6-0 as SF was held to two hits for the first five innings. The Brewers’ lineup is back to full strength with Willy Adames back and Christian Yelich on a 10-game hit streak. Five of the Giants' last seven wins have been by one run. Our view is that Anderson pitches better than expected and the Brewers’ lineup continues to swing the bat well. Play on MILWAUKEE +1.5

AAA

This is an 8* on TOR -1.5

Toronto suffered a crushing one-run defeat at the hands of Detroit Friday night. The 2-1 final was decided by an inside the park HR from Tigers’ pinch-hitter Victor Reyes in home half of the eighth. That it was the first time in the expansion era that a pinch hitter won the game with an inside the park home run is of little matter to the Blue Jays. They now face a 6.5 game deficit in the Wild Card race and are 1-3 vs. the Tigers this month. They’ve got to turn things around and we like their chances Saturday against Jose Urena. Urena has not pitched in over a month due to a groin injury. When he was pitching, he wasn’t very effective. In 17 starts, he has a 6.19 ERA and 1.65 WHIP. He’s 2-8 and winless at home. Urena has pitched worse at Comerica Park than he has on the road, so this really is a golden opportunity for Toronto’s hitters to get back on track. The Tigers will also use Tyler Alexander, but the key is jumping on Urena early. We think Alex Manoah will do his job for Toronto. He’s had his fair share of quality starts recently. He held the White Sox to a run in six innings on Monday. That was the seventh time in eight starts he allowed two runs or less. The Blue Jays are a better ballclub and shouldn’t lose two days in a row. They will win here by multiple runs. Play on TORONTO -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is an 8* on HOU -1.5

The last series between Houston and Kansas City produced some very shocking results. It was the Royals that won three of the four games. Houston’s only win came in the last game of the series and they had to battle back from an early 3-0 deficit to win in extra innings. That series was last week, so it’s fresh in the Astros’ players minds. The weekend went better for them. They took two of three from Seattle. The two wins were dominant: 12-3 and 15-1. The loss, which was yesterday, saw them blow an early 2-0 advantage and lose 6-3 in 11 innings. So it was basically the reverse of the previous Kansas City series. We really like Houston to start this series with a win. Greinke has 1.89 ERA and 0.74 WHIP in his last three starts. He only gave up one run when faced the Royals last Wednesday. Greinke has 2.68 ERA in six starts vs. KC, whom he pitched for from 2004-10. The Royals followed up the successful series with the Astros by sweeping the Cubs. So they have won six of their last seven games. But there is a 17.5 game difference in the standings between these teams. Rookie Daniel Lynch has a 5.12 ERA. His three road starts have produced a very high WHIP (1.61) as well. Kansas City has just three win streaks longer than three games all year. One was in April. Can’t see Houston losing to them again. We’re confident enough to lay the -1.5. Play on HOUSTON -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is a 10* on LAA +1.5 (RUN LINE)

Cleveland looks to sweep LA Sunday night. They have held the Angels to just two runs in the first two games. After a 9-1 win on Friday, things were a “touch” closer on Saturday afternoon. But the Indians still prevailed by a comfortable 5-1 margin. This is now the first time in August that the Tribe has won two in a row. Both they and the Angels are now one game below .500. It’s difficult to see either team getting back into real playoff contention, but at least today’s winner can exit the weekend at the Mendoza Line. It’s obviously been a tough series for the road team, but we are confident that they can keep the game within a run tonight. Indians starter Cal Quantrill has seen four of his last seven starts decided by a one-run margin. The team has lost three of those four one-run games. They are 3-9 in Quantrill’s last 12 starts with five of the losses coming by a run. Cleveland is just 25-34 after a win this season. But the big key to this game is that it’s being played in Williamsport, PA, not Cleveland. It’s part of the Little League World Series festivities. That’s a break for the Angels, who start a lefty - Jose Suarez - in this spot. Suarez pitched well Monday despite taking a hard-luck 2-1 loss at Yankee Stadium. Besides a first inning homer, Suarez allowed only three other hits. He also struck out six in five innings. Play on LA ANGELS +1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is an 8* on BALTIMORE +1.5 (RUN LINE)

Yes, we’re gonna do it. At some point this morning, you probably heard that not only has Baltimore lost 16 consecutive games but all 16 losses have been by two or more runs. So that’s an 0-16 run on the run line that they are on as well. They are starting Matt Harvey on Saturday. Certainly things are not looking rosy for the home team in Camden Yards. But we are willing to take a flier and say the Orioles can at least stay within a run today. It’s extremely difficult to keep losing games by multiple runs like this. Harvey ended July with an 18-plus inning scoreless streak, so he’s capable of keeping Atlanta in check. The Braves only scored three times Friday night. They are only 4-12 in interleague play this season after yesterday’s win. Drew Smyly should feel very thankful for his team start record because his own numbers are not that great. He has a 1.54 WHIP on the road. He also has a 5.14 ERA in the last three starts. He’s only gone four innings in four of his last five starts. The Braves have won Smyly’s last five starts. But the last two wins both came by just a run. Play on BALTIMORE +1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is an 8* on MILWAUKEE -1.5

Milwaukee is simply a better team than St. Louis. They have been all season. So a pair of two-run victories in this series shouldn’t be surprising to you. It was a low-scoring game Tuesday, 2-0, but we said to take the Over last night and thanks to the 10th inning that was a winner. The Brewers won 6-4. For the third and final game of the series, we are going with Milwaukee -1.5 on the run line. They are 74-47 this year, 42-20 on the road. Dominating the rest of the NL Central, they have a 40-19 division record. They are 14-1 in road games when the total is 8.0 to 8.5. Not only do the Brewers have the most road wins in baseball, they are winning on the road by an average of 1.7 runs/game. Brandon Woodruff has a 2.18 ERA plus a 0.91 WHIP, which has him among the very best pitchers in baseball this season. Jon Lester used to be one of the best pitchers in baseball, but that was a long time ago. In 2021, Lester’s ERA is 5.32. He’s struggled since coming over from Washington. The Brewers have won eight of their last nine games. Seven of those wins have been by two or more runs. Play on MILWAUKEE -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is an 8* on PHILLIES -1.5 (RUN LINE)

The Phillies have lost the first two games of this series with the Diamondbacks. That’s quite embarrassing considering the Diamondbacks have the National League’s worst record. Now that record has gotten somewhat better of late as they’ve won five of their last six games. But you’re still looking at a team that has lost more than two-thirds of its games. It wasn’t too long ago that the Phillies were the hottest team in baseball. They won eight in a row to open August and were in first place in the NL East. But since then they’ve lost six of eight games and now face a 3.5 game deficit in the division as it is the Braves that are surging. The key to today’s selection is that Zack Wheeler is going to be starting for Philadelphia. Wheeler leads all starters with 187 strikeouts and 162 innings pitched. With Jacob deGrom injured, Wheeler could be in line for the Cy Young. An Arizona team that is only 11-28 in day games should be no match for the right-hander, whose WHIP is sub-1.00 for the year. Even though he’s done well since returning from the injured list, Madison Bumgarner is not the same pitcher he was a couple of years ago for the Giants. He gave up a season-high nine hits in his last start. The Phillies will win here by at least two runs. Play on PHILADELPHIA -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is an 8* on CWS -1.5 (RL)

After winning “The Field of Dreams” game in thrilling fashion, the White Sox promptly dropped two actual home games to the Yankees. But they’ve quickly gotten back on track by beating Oakland each of the last two days. We had them Monday and that was a 5-2 victory. It was way easier yesterday as they took the game 9-0. With Lance Lynn set to go tonight, the AL Central leaders should move one step closer to a sweep (this is a four-game series) and we think they win this one by at least two runs. Lynn will handle the A’s lineup. He has a 6-2 record at home, a 2.25 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. He has a 6-1 TSR over his last seven starts, having permitted just one run in five of them. Oakland has dropped three straight. Don’t think Cole Irvin will be able to handle a White Sox lineup that is averaging 5.3 runs in games where they oppose a lefty starter. The White Sox are 41-22 at home this year. When they are -125 to -175 on the money, they are 21-7 in home games. Play on CHICAGO -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is an 8* on TB -1.5

Tampa Bay won big last night, 9-2, and is very likely to do so again tonight. After dropping two of three to the Twins this past weekend, this series offers a shot at redemption. The Rays have been beating up on the Orioles all year, as you’d expect them to, winning 12 of the 13 season meetings. At this price, we’ve made the decision to lay the -1.5 on the run line. No fear here. Six of the Rays’ previous seven wins over the Orioles have been by more than one run. At the present time, Baltimore is playing as poorly as they have all year, which is really saying something. They are 0-12 their last 12 games and have been outscored 113-36. This isn’t even their longest losing streak this year! They are ill-equipped to handle the Rays lineup, allowing nine or more runs eight of the 13 times they faced them. Tampa has outscored them 103-51 on the year. Not even John Means, Baltimore’s best pitcher, is enough to stem the tide here. Means already lost to the Rays earlier in the month in what turned out to be a 10-6 game. He followed that by serving up three home runs to Detroit. Tampa Bay homered five times yesterday and has scored at least eight runs in 8 of the last 10 games. Should be an easy night for Rasmussen, no matter how long he’s asked to go. Play on TAMPA BAY -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is an 8* on OAK -1.5

Texas did beat Oakland last night, 8-6, but the Rangers are obviously a team that doesn’t do a whole heck of a lot of winning. Their 75 losses are the third most of any team. They’d lost the previous five games with the A’s before winning Friday. So calling for the A’s to bounce back Saturday doesn’t seem like much of a stretch. We’re confident enough to lay the -1.5 as this should be a blowout. Texas is 15-25 off a win this year. Oakland is 8-2 in August, a month that has been kind to them in years’ past as well. The last three Augusts have seen the A’s put together a 44-19 record. They’d just won 17-0 in Cleveland on Thursday. There was some rare sloppy play in the field yesterday as the A’s committed three errors. Going into that game, they’d committed the fewest errors in the majors. Errors were what helped Texas score three times in the top of the first. That was more runs than the Rangers had scored in the previous two games combined. They rank last in the American League in runs scored. Jordan Lyles has won just 5 of his 22 starts for Texas this year. The last five have all been losses for the team and in three of the five games, Lyles has allowed six runs. One of those three was against the A’s. Contrast that to James Kaprielian. When the Oakland righty went against Lyles on 8/8, he gave up only two runs. Play on OAKLAND -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is a 10* on HOU -1.5

The Astros lost to the Twins last night, 5-4. The game went 11 innings and saw your AL West leaders blow a 3-0 lead. They are too good to let that happen again, so we will take them here, not just to win but to win by two or more runs. The run line looks like a great value in this situation as Houston is on a three-game losing streak. There have been only three times this season where the Astros have had a losing streak of more than three games. This is the first three-game losing streak since prior to the All Star Break. Luis Garcia has a 2.15 ERA and 0.95 WHIP at home. He can easily handle this Twins lineup. We won’t say the same for Twins starter Michael Pineda and the Astros lineup though. In his last seven starts, Pineda has a 5.67 ERA and .892 OPS allowed. Houston has scored more runs than every other team in 2021. Play on HOUSTON -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is a 10* on OAK -1.5 (RUN LINE)

Oakland is 61-48 on the season. If the regular season ended today, they’d be the second Wild Card team in the American League. They trail Houston by four games in the West Division, so that’s also still in play. After coming from behind to stun San Diego on Wednesday, the A’s have won five of their last seven games. They have a real nice scheduling advantage for today’s game vs. Texas. Because it was a short two-game interleague series vs. San Diego, the A’s had both Monday and Thursday off. The Rangers have not had an off-day in over a week. They lost 5-0 yesterday afternoon to the Angels, at home, a game where we had the Under. As we talked about, this team just can’t hit. They are last or second to last in each of the four key offensive categories. The last week has seen them hit .207. Mike Foltynewicz being the starter Friday makes things even less promising. He is 2-10 with a 6.00 ERA. Chris Bassitt is a much better option for Oakland. He is 11-3 with a 3.28 ERA. Against Texas, Bassitt is 3-0. He’s allowed two runs and 12 hits in 21 innings. It’s strange that the A’s are 5-5 head to head vs. the Rangers. But they should have no problem winning this game by multiple runs. Play on OAKLAND -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is a 10* on NYY -1.5

There are a lot of big favorites on tonight’s MLB card. You might be caught off guard by the fact that the Yankees are one of them. They are facing a Seattle team that has a very similar record. But the Mariners are frauds and we really like this Nestor Cortes. The Yankees margin of victory from the past two days is 19 runs. Now we know those wins came against Baltimore. But Seattle isn’t a team that deserves to be over .500. They’ve allowed 49 more runs than they have scored this season. The Mariners’ last three losses have all been by one run, but tonight is a situation where they figure to get blown out. Cortes, who is the Yankees starter for tonight, is 3-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 0.69 WHIP. He was originally going to start Tuesday’s game vs. the Orioles, but the team opted to go with Luis Gill and still won 13-1. Now Cortes has had more than a full week of rest in between starts. The Yankees are two games back of the Wild Card and one game in front of the Mariners. So this series is pretty huge. The degree to which they are favored is fairly telling. We believe they’ll win this game by two or more runs, making the run line a great option. Tyler Anderson has a 3-7 team start record on the road for Seattle. His last two starts have been losses at Arizona and Texas, two of the worst teams in baseball. Play on NY YANKEES -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is a 9* on CHICAGO -1.5

Chicago is one of the top teams in the American League and all of MLB. But last week they went to Kansas City and lost three of four. That shouldn’t happen when you’re a first place team facing a team fighting to get out of last place. But now the White Sox get to be the hosts and they should be rather rude. The Sox road record isn’t very good, but at home they are 37-18. That’s more home victories than every other team. We will lay the -1.5 just to play them Tuesday in what should be an easy series-opening victory. The Royals got swept this past weekend. They scored only five runs at Toronto and at one point were blanked for 17 consecutive innings. The Royals have lost two-thirds of their road games and when on a losing streak of three or more games, things get really bad. Off three or more straight losses, they are 5-21 in 2021. With an 8.19 road ERA, Kris Bubic gives us even less confidence in KC than usual today. Dylan Cease has a 7-3 home team start record for the White Sox. It’s just hard to see the home side not rolling in this one. Play on CHICAGO -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is an 8* on NY -1.5

Gerrit Cole was supposed to start on Tuesday for the Yankees. But he has COVID-19 and thus he’s going to miss some time. That wasn’t the only bad news for the Yankees yesterday. They also lost 7-1 to the Orioles. That simply can’t happen if they hope to be a player in this Wild Card race. New York is three games back of Oakland right now and had won five of six prior to Monday’s loss. The team did not “stand pat” at the deadline, adding both Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo to a lineup that has put up the second fewest number of runs in the American League. Unfortunately, the Yankees decided to go 0 for 11 with runners in scoring position Monday night. Nestor Cortes Jr will be the one starting in place of Cole. If you’re not familiar with him, he’s made three starts and the team has won all of them. Over 13 innings, Cortes has permitted just two runs and seven hits. Baltimore is 7-3 its last 10 games, but still buried in last place in the division with a 38-67 record. They are a horrible road team that has gone 3-13 its last 16 games at Yankees Stadium. Alexander Wells will start this game for them. In two previous appearances, Wells has a 5.91 ERA. The idea of the Orioles winning two straight games seems ludicrous, so we’ll lay the -1.5 on the run line. Play on NY YANKEES -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is an 8* on CHICAGO -1.5 (RUN LINE)

Fresh off a couple wins over Houston, the White Sox get to stay home to start the week. They’ll play two (doubleheader) against Minnesota on Monday with Lance Lynn starting Game 1. We look for this one to quickly turn into a blowout. The Twins have not been good against the White Sox so far this season. They are 2-10 in head to head matchups, which includes an 0-6 record at Guaranteed Rate Field. The Twins’ weekend saw them get swept in Detroit. While Chicago is a top five team in baseball by any objective measure, Minnesota has been among the most underachieving teams of 2021. They are -24.9 units, making them the second worst team to bet on (only Arizona is worse). Back to Lynn, he’s having an exemplary year with a 1.99 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He’s pitched against the Twins three times and has given up only four runs and 11 hits in 17 innings. The last time he faced them was 12 days ago and that ended up being an easy 6-1 victory. The Twins starter for Game 1 is Michael Pineda. The team has lost each of his last four starts, getting outscored 35-12 in the process. We are so confident in this one that we are willing to lay the -1.5 (run line). Play on CHICAGO -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is a 10* on OAKLAND -1.5 (RUN LINE)

It will be interesting to see how Cleveland approaches the second half. Eight games back of the White Sox, they are not likely to win the AL Central. They are 4.5 games out of the Wild Card. Injuries have taken their toll on the Indians, particularly their starting rotation. They are not a team looking to spend money, so we’d be shocked if they were “buyers” before the trade deadline. It might behoove them to be sellers and build for the future. The Indians are big underdogs Friday in Oakland as they face Chris Bassitt, who is 10-2 in his 19 starts (14-5 TSR). The A’s are also a second place team, but in a better position than Cleveland. They have seven more wins and a much better run differential as well. We expect the home team to win tonight by two runs or more. Eli Morgan has made just five starts for Cleveland. The last one came on July 3rd. He has an 8.43 ERA this year. Bassitt has allowed no more than two runs in 14 of his last 17 starts. The Indians have lost eight straight games to teams with winning records. They are 1-7 their last eight games here in Oakland. The A’s are an amazing 49-13 their last 62 games vs. the AL Central. Play on OAKLAND -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is a 10* on SF -1.5

Arizona did win a game in this series (Thursday) but wasted little time in reverting back to their “normal ways” by losing each of the last two days. It was a non-competitive affair on Friday (Giants won 11-4) before a 6-5 final last night. The Giants actually needed a late 2-run homer from pinch-hitter Austin Slater to win the game. But while this series has been a bit more competitive than the Giants expected, the season as a whole paints a picture where you’ll want to be on them tonight. They are 8-1 vs. the Diamondbacks in 2021 and 16-3 against them the last three years. Arizona has the worst record in baseball and a loss tonight would leave them 40 games below .500. They’ve lost a staggering 49 of their last 57 games! We all know about the struggles on the road, but they are also just 5-21 their last 26 home games. Has Caleb Smith (Sunday’s scheduled starter) pitched well for them of late? Yes he has. But he’s received little to no run support. The Giants are in first place with a 52-30 record, which has them 30.5 games up on Arizona! They’ve given up 177 fewer runs! Part of the reason for that is Anthony DeSclafani, who is 8-3 with a 2.91 ERA. Each of his last five starts, DeSclafani has allowed three runs or less. He’s allowed only seven runs total (and 19 hits) in 32 innings of work. This seems to be a “no-brainer” and we will even lay the -1.5 on the run line. Play SAN FRANCISCO -1.5 (RUN LINE)

This is an 8* on PIT +1.5

Milwaukee has really taken control of the Central, thanks to a nine-game win streak. It also helps that the Cubs have lost six in a row. After sweeping the Cubs over the weekend and outscoring them 31-12, the Brewers beat the Pirates 7-2 yesterday. That was their fourth straight win over the Bucs dating back to a sweep in Milwaukee last month. The Pirates are obviously having a terrible year. Yesterday was their fourth loss in a row. They’ve scored only four runs in the four games. But don’t be surprised to see them “shock the world” on Friday. Given all the above info, this line is a bit of a shock. We’ve got reason to be a little apprehensive, so that’s why we’re going with the run line. Pittsburgh starter Brubaker is pretty good though and is capable of pitching his team to the win today. Brubaker has a 0.921 WHIP at home this year and a 0.962 WHIP in his last three starts overall. The fact his TSR is 0-3 in those last three starts while Milwaukee’s Adrian Houser has a 3-0 TSR his last three starts (despite a 5.94 ERA and 1.62 WHIP) seems unjust. Houser is 1-3 with a 5.52 ERA in eight career appearances vs. Pittsburgh, five of those being starts. Brubaker beat Houser earlier in the year when he allowed just one run in six innings. Play PITTSBURGH +1.5

AAA

This is a 9* on TOR -1.5

These teams have similar records, but we believe Toronto to be far superior. Certainly, the oddsmakers seem to be in agreement with us, given how the home team has been priced in this series. The Blue Jays have closed north of -200 on the money line each of the last two days. Now they did lose yesterday, 9-7 in 10 innings. Somehow Seattle has managed to go 9-1 in extra inning games this year. That partly explains how they have one more win than the Blue Jays, despite a vastly inferior run differential. The Mariners have played 81 games so far. They’ve been outscored by 47 runs. Toronto has played 78 games. They’ve outscored their opponents by 69 runs. That’s quite the massive difference in run differential. So we’ve got no problem laying the -1.5 on the run line this afternoon. Remember that Toronto won the first game of the series, 9-3. Whether it’s been Florida or NY, the Blue Jays have averaged 5.8 runs/game at home. Seattle is actually being outscored by 1.3 runs/game on the road. We must concede that Kikuchi has pitched well recently for the Mariners. But he does have 10 walks in his last three starts. Ryu has very similar numbers for Toronto, who are also 19-8 in day games. Play TORONTO -1.5

AAA

This is a 10* on LAD -1.5

After being swept down in San Diego, the Dodgers look to regroup this weekend. It’ll be the Cubs paying them a visit and this is a revenge series for the home team who got swept at Wrigley Field early in May. We look for this series to go a whole lot differently. Or at least today’s game where Walker Buehler will pitch for Los Angeles. Buehler has a 10-4 team start record this year, but has not dropped a decision. His record is 7-0 and he’s coming off a performance where he took a no-hitter into the eighth inning and had a season-high 11 strikeouts. He’s 3-0 his past three starts with an ERA of 0.89 and a WHIP of 0.74. When the no-hitter was finally broken up by Arizona last Saturday, Buehler had not allowed any runs in his previous 20 innings of work. The Cubs have lost six of nine and before winning 7-1 against Cleveland Tuesday, they had not topped three runs in any of those contests. They really struggle at the plate on the road (.218 average) and we don’t see Davies helping out too much as he has a 1.77 WHIP in seven road starts. The Dodgers are 4-1 this year following three straight losses. Since the money line is pretty high, you’ll want to play the run line here as we think the home team wins this one pretty easily. Play on LA DODGERS -1.5

This is a 10* on LAD -1.5

There’s really no price that could discourage us from selecting the Dodgers tonight in Arizona. This is truly about as large a mismatch as it gets in this sport. The Dodgers, 3-0 winners on Friday, do not have the best won-loss record in the National League, or even their own division. But they are #1 in the NL in run differential (+96). Arizona is hideous. They have lost 15 in a row and 32 of their last 37 games. In addition to setting a new record for futility on the road (23 straight losses), the team has not won at home since June 1st. At 20-51, the Diamondbacks have the worst record in baseball. Matt Peacock is not the man for the task at hand Saturday night. He is 0-3 over his last three starts with a 7.14 ERA and 2.47 WHIP. He has more walks than strikeouts in those three starts and just gave up 10 hits in 5 innings the last time he pitched. The Dodgers will have Walker Buehler on the mound and he hasn’t allowed a single run in his last two starts. He’s delivered six straight quality starts and the first of those six came against Arizona. Buehler held the D’backs to one hit over seven innings back on May 17th. LA won the game 3-1. They’ll likely win by an even larger margin tonight as 2+ runs will be the difference. Play on LA DODGERS -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is an 8* on LAA -1.5

With Ohtani on the mound, the Angels should easily dominate the Tigers in Thursday’s series opener. Detroit is in off a sweep of the Royals. But they are still 10 games below .500 and have been outscored by 62 runs over the course of their first 68 games. They did have a pair of four-game win streaks last month, but that’s as long a win streak as this team has had in 2021. So odds are that they are going to go down tonight. The Angels just got swept out in Oakland, but had won six in a row before that. Their last home series saw them sweep the Royals. Those three wins were by a total of 17 runs. Ohtani has a 1.85 ERA in his five home starts, so he should keep the Tigers at bay. Anthony Rendon is expected to return to the Angels’ lineup tonight, giving the offense a boost. This is the major league debut for Matt Manning of Detroit. He didn’t pitch all that well down in Triple-A (8.07 ERA with 11 home runs allowed), so why trust him here? This will be a multi-run win by the home team. Play on LA ANGELS -1.5 (RUN LINE)

This is an 8* on WASHINGTON +1.5 (RUN LINE)

The Nationals captured last night’s series opener 2-1. Because of that, we like them +1.5 (run line) on Saturday. The Phillies’ 17-3 win over the Reds on Wednesday is looking like a total outlier as the club has scored no more than three runs in any other of its last eight games. Washington has won three of its last four ball games, all of them coming on the division road. Joe Ross starts on Saturday. He gave up only three hits in his last start and while it ended up being a losing effort, it was the sixth time in seven starts where Ross allowed five hits or less. Ross is 2-0 with a 3.21 ERA all-time vs. the Phillies, who had just six hits in last night’s game. With the exception of yesterday, all the recent putrid offensive efforts by Philadelphia had been on the road. But they only average 4.2 runs/game at home. Spencer Howard is starting for them today and has had issues with a drop in velocity through the first three outings of 2021. Howard hasn’t gone more than four innings yet and the Phillies bullpen has been poor. Play on WASHINGTON +1.5

AAA

This is a 10* on LAD -1.5

St. Louis pulled off an upset, winning 3-2 last night here at Dodgers Stadium. But the idea of them winning two in a row seems remote. The Dodgers, paced by an offense that scores 5.2 runs/game and a pitching staff that allows only 3.9, should still be considered the best team in baseball. They have scored 72 more runs than they have allowed through 55 games. The only two teams with better run differentials this year are the Padres and White Sox. The Cardinals are seven games over .500 and chasing the Cubs in the Central. But they have scored exactly one more run than they’ve allowed. The gap in the two teams’ run differentials is significant to us in handicapping this matchup. So is the fact that Dodgers starter Walker Buehler is 3-0 in his 10 starts with a 2.66 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. He probably deserves better than a 6-4 team start record. His ERA is 0.90 his last three starts as he’s allowed just three runs, one unearned, in 20 innings. There have been only two starts this year where Buehler gave up more than two runs and every start has gone at least six innings. Carlos Martinez did carry a no-hitter into the 7th inning in his last start. But he was facing Arizona. Dodgers are 53-24 L77 if they scored two or less runs in the last game. Play LA DODGERS -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

INCORRECTLY ENTERED PLAY

This is a 10* on LA ANGELS -1.5

The Angels were upset yesterday by the Rangers, losing 6-4 in a game where they were big favorites. They actually had more hits than Texas, but sloppy defense (three errors) contributed to them falling into a 6-0 hole. Five of those six runs for the Rangers came in one inning (the sixth) and that equaled their entire offensive output from the previous 32 innings combined. So we’re not sold on them being able to duplicate last night’s result. In fact, we think this should be such an easy win for the home team that you should lay the -1.5 on the run line. Ohtani is starting tonight for the Angels. The first start of the year for the two-way player did bring about control issues (five walks) but he only allowed two hits and the Angels won 7-4. The Angels also average 5.9 runs/game at home. Jordan Lyles, who won just one game for Texas last year, has already matched that win total in 2021 as he won his first start. But the last two have seen him give up three home runs and six runs total. He now has a 4.70 ERA. He has a 5.40 ERA in six career starts vs. LA. Play on LA ANGELS (-1.5)

AAA

This is an 8* on MIAMI +1.5

This is a tough spot for Atlanta as they are off a controversial 7-6 loss on Sunday Night Baseball. A play at the plate (bad call) determined the outcome of the game and the Braves were rightly hot that things went against them. Now they have to turn around and host a Miami team that’s off a 3-0 win over the Mets on Sunday and looking for revenge. The revenge stems from the end of last year when the Braves swept the Marlins out of the playoffs. We’ll grab the +1.5 with Miami here as Sandy Alcantara has pitched very well in his two starts despite having an 0-2 TSR. He had 10 strikeouts in his last start and has allowed only three runs and six hits so far. There hasn’t been much run support, but that will come. Atlanta goes with Huascar Ynoa, who has only two starts of longer than three innings in his career. One was Wednesday when he shut Washington out for five innings. But we don’t think he’s better than Alcantara. This should be a low-scoring game where 1.5 runs in our back pocket will come in handy. Play on MIAMI +1.5

AAA

This is a 10* on WASHINGTON +1.5

It’s rare you get Max Scherzer +1.5 runs, let alone with this kind of minimal price tag attached. So you’ve got to figure that the opponent can only be one team and if you guessed “the Dodgers,” then go ahead and pat yourself on the back. Los Angeles is going for the sweep Sunday afternoon as they’ve beaten Washington 1-0 and 9-5 the last two days. But we give the Nats a shot at winning today and don’t think they’ll do any worse than a one-run loss. Scherzer allowed four solo home runs in his first start. But other than those, he gave up just one other hit. He had nine strikeouts and zero walks and the Nationals wound up beating the Braves 6-5. Kershaw was similarly impressive in his last outing, but not so much in the first (allowed six runs), which could be chalked up to being in Colorado. We realize that LA has lost just one time since Opening Day and Washington is on a four-game losing streak. But two of those four losses were by one run. Even in yesterday’s loss, the Nationals had 15 hits to the Dodgers’ nine. Play on WASHINGTON +1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is a 10* on LAD -1.5

Like everyone else, we favor the Dodgers to repeat as World Series Champions. When you factor in their postseason, they outscored their opponents by an average of 2.2 runs per game last season. Only three Yankees teams from the 20’s and 30’s ever produced a better per game run differential over the course of a season. Now that was only 78 games for the Dodgers last year, but they look even stronger this year and could set the National League record for single season wins. Their season win total of 104.5 is tied with the ‘99 Yankees for the highest of the past 30 years. Colorado is not going to challenge the Dodgers. Not today. Not this season. They could finish some 40 games back when the regular season is over. This is a total mismatch as Clayton Kershaw makes his 11th consecutive Opening Day start. Disregard Kershaw’s poor Spring Training; that’s happened before and it didn’t carry over to the regular season. His 24 wins against the Rockies are his most vs. any team and he’s 11-5 all-time at Coors Field. The Rockies traded away Nolen Arenado and Brendan Rodgers is out with a hamstring injury. German Marquez can not possibly carry his team to victory here and the home team will lose by at least two runs. Play on LA DODGERS (-1.5)

AAA

This is an 10* on TAMPA BAY +1.5

The Dodgers treated us nicely in Game 5, winning 4-2 as our *10* Game of the Year. But with the Rays now facing a must-win situation, we’re now going to throw our support behind them in Game 6. The main reason being not that they are facing elimination, but rather it’s the same starting pitching matchup that treated them so well in Game 2. It was a 1st inning Brandon Lowe HR off Tony Gonsolin that set the tone in Game 2. The Rays went on to win 6-4. Gonsolin hasn’t been good in the playoffs, posting a 9.39 ERA in just 7 ⅔ innings. He lasted for just four outs in Game 2. Blake Snell has never gone a full six innings for the Rays this season, but he doesn’t have to with the bullpen being as good as it is. Snell no-hit the Dodgers for the first four innings (not an easy feat) of Game 2. Tampa Bay is 20-8 off a loss this season and 11-2 when playing with a day off. We believe they will do no worse than a 1-run loss here. Play on TAMPA BAY

AAA

This is a 10* on HOUSTON +1.5

Going into Game 4 of the ALCS, Tampa Bay was up 3-0 in the series and owned a MLB-best 16-5 record in one-run games this season. That was the best win percentage in one-run games for any single season in the history of baseball. Well, as you know, the ALCS is still going on. The Rays are now just 16-7 in one-run games having lost Games 4 and 5 by identical 4-3 scores. Last night it was a Carlos Correa walk-off that proved to be the difference for the Astros. Houston has outhit Tampa Bay in this series, even when they were losing, so we’re not surprised that they’ve climbed back into the series. With the series being so low-scoring thus far (every game has stayed Under), taking Houston +1.5 in a must-win spot seems ideal. On the mound, it’ll be a rematch of Game 1 starters tonight. Framber Valdez allowed just two runs on four hits for the Astros in Game 1. He’s gone at least six innings in all but two of his 12 starts in 2020. Blake Snell hasn’t gone a full six (innings) one time this season. He did give up just the one run in Game 1, but Astros’ hitters were making good contact with him and had six hits. Snell also had only two strikeouts, compared to eight by Valdez.  Play on HOUSTON +1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is a 10* on HOU +1.5

There are no off days in the LCS, so these teams could be playing as many as seven games in seven days. We think there’s going to be a real premium on starting pitchers going deep into games. Granted, Tampa Bay is never afraid to have a “quick hook” and turn to its bullpen, which has been successful for them all year. But with just one day off between series and Game 1 starter Blake Snell having yet to pitch a full six innings even one time in 2020, the Rays seem to be at a bit of a disadvantage here. Astros Game 1 starter Framber Valdez has gone a full seven innings in 7 of his 13 outings this season. The team that homers more has gone 22-1 this postseason. Houston homered 12 times in 4 games vs. Oakland, Tampa Bay homered 11 times in 5 games vs. the Yankees. This pretty clearly isn’t the same Houston team we saw struggle in the regular season. They are healthier now and motivated by the cheating scandal. Last year, they ousted TB in 5 games in the LDS. They took the first two games of that series. Taking the ‘Stros on the run line here is a tremendous value as we just can’t see them doing any worse than a one-run loss in Game 1. Play HOUSTON +1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is a 10* on TAMPA BAY (RUN LINE)

It’s come down to one game for the Yankees and the Rays as Game 5 is Friday night with the winner moving on (to face the Astros) in the ALCS and the loser going home. After staying alive with a 5-1 win in Game 4 last night, the Yankees are favored here as they’ve got Gerrit Cole on the mound. As great as he’s been over the last month, a lot of his success has to do with run support and we don’t think Cole can necessarily count on that tonight. Tampa Bay is taking a different approach as Tyler Glasnow, who started the Game 2 win, will open. From there, we’re likely to see Blake Snell and others. With Glasnow, not only did he strike out 10 Yankees in just five innings back in Game 2, he also has a 10-0 team start record in his L10 starts! Over the L7 starts, Glasnow has a sub 1.00 WHIP. So we've got full confidence in him for however long he’s in there tonight. The Rays pitching depth is such that there will be no drop off when they do decide to make the change. (Snell is a former Cy Young winner!) There has yet to be a one-run game in this series, but remember that Game 1 was 4-3 heading into the ninth inning. We say that Tampa Bay does no worse than a one-run loss in Game 5 and we obviously give them a great shot at winning “outright!” Play on TAMPA BAY +1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is an 8* on TAMPA BAY +1.5 (RUN LINE)

The Yankees and Rays meet in the LDS. Though Tampa Bay finished with the best record in the American League, they are the underdogs in Game 1. We see some real value on the Rays in this situation, especially when it comes to the run line where we can get an additional 1.5 runs at a fairly reasonable price. The Rays were 8-2 against the Yankees in the regular season, beating Game 1 starter Gerritt Cole twice. While Cole has been excellent over the last month, he’s been getting a ton of run support and that doesn’t figure to be the case here as Tampa Bay goes with Blake Snell, who has been every bit as good as Cole recently and over the course of the whole season for that matter. Snell allowed just one hit to Toronto in the last series and it was the third time in the past four starts he gave up one run or less. One of the Yankees two wins in Cleveland was by one run as they had to rally back from a 4-run deficit. The Rays are 32-12 vs. righties this season, the Yankees are just 7-8 vs. lefties. While this series is being contested in San Diego, not Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay, it still matters that the Yankees weren’t a great road team in the regular season. Five of the 14 homers that Cole has allowed this year came by the Rays. Play on TAMPA BAY +1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is a 10* on WASH +1.5

Stuck in last place, the Nationals are finding it hard to defend their World Series Championship. But they did beat the Rays yesterday 6-1. Getting the Nats +1.5 at this price, at home no less, is definitely something we would not have foreseen just a couple weeks ago. We’ll take advantage of it as they still can be a dangerous club as they proved last night. A lot of that was due to Max Scherzer, but you’ve got to think there’s “more where that came from.” Tuesday’s starter Anibal Sanchez has struggled in his last two starts, however, the Rays have not scored more than five runs in 9 of their last 10 games. That leaves the door open with the run line as Washington has scored five or more runs in 6 of its last 10 contests. Rays starter Ryan Yarbrough missed his last start due to injury, thus he’s a bit of a question mark coming into today’s game. The Rays’ bullpen does not have good numbers on the road. Play WASHINGTON +1.5.

AAA

This is a 10* on WASH -1.5

Despite enduring a COVID-19 outbreak just as the season was getting underway, Miami ended up winning 7 of its first 8 games. They’ve since gone 2-8 with yesterday’s game against the Mets being postponed due to two positive (COVID) tests in the Mets organization. Thus it marked the first time in six days where the Marlins DIDN’T lose (lost 5 in a row overall). Today they’re in Washington D.C. and the losing should continue as they face a Nationals team that has their number. The Nats went 15-4 vs. Miami last year and were 13-4 against them the season before that. Washington also had Thursday off, but unlike the Marlins, it was a scheduled off-day. They’ve actually been off for two days as Wednesday’s game vs. Atlanta was rained out. We look for the Nationals to come out strong and take this series opener rather easily. Pat Corbin gets the start and he was 3-0 vs. Miami last season with a 1.55 ERA in four starts. He limited them to a .165 batting average while striking out 29 and walking just five. As of now, Miami is scheduled to go with Eliser Hernandez. But they could change to rookie Daniel Castano. Either way, the Nationals win. Play on WASHINGTON

AAA

This is an 8* on LA -1.5

Shockingly, the Dodgers could only manage a four-game split with the Giants when they met two weeks ago in LA. The Dodgers took the first two games 9-1 and 8-1 and everything seemed normal. But then they lost the next two two, 5-4 and 3-1, both losses coming as huge money line favorites. Everything points in the Dodgers direction for Friday, the first time they’ll have faced their rivals since the four-game split. The Dodgers are 7-2 since that series and own the best run differential in baseball at +33. The Giants have gone just 4-6 their L10 and were beaten yesterday in Colorado 6-4. The Dodgers had Thursday off after a thrilling win over the Padres the night prior. Today’s starting pitching matchup looks very one-sided with Urias having a 2.45 ERA for LA and Samardzija having a 9.31 ERA for SF. Playing the run line here, that means the Dodgers have to win by two runs. Shouldn’t be a problem. Play on LA DODGERS -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is an 8* on HOUSTON -1.5

Seattle is clearly no match for Houston as they’ve lost the first two games of the series by scores of 8-2 and 7-2. They are now a pathetic 1-19 against the Astros going back to last season. We cashed the Under in yesterday’s Astros romp. Here we will play the ‘Stros, but since that obviously comes at a high price we’re playing the run line of -1.5. We don’t see any reason why Houston shouldn’t win this game by at least two runs as they send Greinke to the hill Sunday. In 14 career appearances vs. Seattle, Greinke is 7-1 with a 1.85 ERA. Believe it or not, he faced them just one time last year. But it was a dominant start which saw him give up just two hits in 8+ innings. Kikuchi would have to pitch out of his mind for the M’s to even have a chance today. That’s probably not going to happen seeing as he faces a lineup that has scored 15 times in two games. Kikuchi’s numbers were not good last season (5.46 ERA, 1.52 WHIP) and he only had 12 quality starts in 32 tries. Easy money here. 8* HOUSTON -1.5

AAA

This is an 8* on TORONTO +1.5

Now that the playoff field has been expanded to 16 teams, Toronto certainly has a fighting chance. There’s a fairly clear delineation of “haves” and “have nots” within the American League. The Blue Jays were really the only team considered “in between.” Realistically they had little chance of making the playoffs under the normal format (five teams per league). Now with eight, they’ve got a shot. Also in the AL East, Tampa Bay has high hopes for 2020. They believe they can compete with the Yankees. There seems to be a lot of hype going around and thus we believe the Rays enter this first series of the year slightly overvalued. We’ll back Toronto at +1.5, using the run line. All Star outfield Austin Meadows, who last year led the team in both on base percentage and home runs against right-handed pitching, has the coronavirus. Lefty reliever Poche is also expected to miss the 2020 season. We like Ryu starting in Toronto. In case you forgot, he had the lowest ERA in the National League last season (2.32). He's a quality addition. Don’t let the current nomadic nature (no home stadium) of the Blue Jays fool you. They’re a great value Friday. 8* Toronto +1.5

AAA

This is an 8* play on WASHINGTON +1.5

The big question here is can the Nationals stay alive and force a Game 7 in the World Series? Honestly, we don't know. But we are willing to bet on the fact they won't lose Game 6 by more than a run. What we do know is the road team is a perfect 5-0 in this series. That includes a 12-3 victory by Washington in Game 2, which was right here in Houston and had the same exact starting pitching matchup we have tonight. It's Stephen Strasburg vs. Justin Verlander. Strasburg has just as good of numbers as Verlander for the year and has been better in the playoffs. Verlander has allowed four runs in three of his five postseason starts. The Nationals have won the last six times Strasburg has started, four of those coming in the playoffs. All six starts during the win streak have been quality ones with Strasburg going a total of 38 innings and allowing just eight runs. He has 52 strikeouts vs. just 5 walks. Washington is 23-13 since 2017 when coming off three straight losses. At this price, Strasburg +1.5 is a bargain. Play WASHINGTON RUN LINE (+1.5)

AAA

This is a 9* play on the YANKEES (RUN LINE)

It's do or die for the Yankees Friday night as they now face a 3-1 series deficit. After winning Game 1 by a score of 7-0, it's been all downhill. But they do get one more home game. With everyone pretty much writing their chances off at this point, we think it's a good time to "double down" and take them on the run line as they should at least keep Game 5 close, if not win it. James Paxton is starting tonight. He had won 10 straight decisions before getting a quick hook in Game 2. The final score of that game was 3-2, so you can see why the run line could be a good idea tonight. Beating Justin Verlander is not easy, but the Rays did it at home in Game 4 of the ALDS. We think the Yankees can do the same here as they are in the situation the Rays were, that being facing elimination in a home game. The Yankees are 5-2 this season after losing their last three games. Getting the Yankees this offense with a +1.5 at home isn't something that happens very often. It's a shockingly low price too. Paxton has been a "stopper" this year with a 6-0 TSR the last six times he's started off a Yankees loss. The team is also 6-0 in his last six starts at home. Play the YANKEES on the RUN LINE (+1.5)

AAA

This is a 6* play on ST. LOUIS +1.5

Oddsmakers had Washington as the favorite to win the NLCS before the series started. That's looking like a pretty smart position now as the Nationals won both games in St. Louis. Gone is the home field advantage in the series, but it would be wrong to write the Cardinals off this early in the series. They've got one of the best pitchers in baseball going on Monday. That would be Jack Flaherty. Remember Flaherty was favored to win his start in Atlanta in Game 2 and was even money for Game 5. The team split the pair, losing Game 2 by a score of 3-0 but winning Game 5, 13-1. Flaherty posted a 2.77 ERA in the two starts, allowing just 4 runs in 13 innings. Flaherty hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in any of his previous 18 starts. He allowed zero runs in half of those 18 starts (9 times), a stretch that dates back to before the All Star Break. So even though he's facing Steven Strasburg and being backed by an offense that could barely get a hit the first two games, Flaherty +1.5 seems like a safe bet to us as he's a lock not to give up many runs. It hasn't mattered yet in this series, but the Cardinals do have the better bullpen. Washington didn't do much scoring in the first two games either. Play ST LOUIS on the RUN LINE (+1.5)

AAA

This is an 8* play on WASHINGTON +1.5 (run line)

The LDS between the Nationals and Dodgers will go to a Game 5 in Los Angeles Wednesday night. Starting for Washington will be Stephen Strasburg. Starting for LA will be Walker Buehler (not Clayton Kershaw). As good as Buehler and the Dodgers have been, the opportunity to take Strasburg and the Nationals +1.5 (run line) in this situation is even better. Buehler was sensational in winning Game 1. He gave up just one hit in six innings. But Strasburg was equally as sensational in winning Game 2. He allowed just one run and three hits in six innings, beating Kershaw. The numbers from Strasburg's last several starts are also eye-opening. It's a 0.95 ERA and 0.68 WHIP in his last three as he's given up two runs and 10 hits in 19 innings. He has 26 strikeouts and just three walks. For the sake of comparison, Buehler has allowed six runs his last three starts (only 16 innings) and has 10 walks. In a game that rates pretty close to a toss-up, laying juice to get the 1.5 runs seems like a smart move. Washington has proven it can beat the mighty Dodgers. They are 3-3 here in LA this season and 6-6 the L3 seasons. Play WASHINGTON +1.5

AAA

This is a 10* on MINNESOTA +1.5

The Twins have simply had no luck when it comes to facing the Yankees in the playoffs. They've lost 12 straight postseason games to them and 15 straight postseason games overall! Tonight, their season hangs in the balance, but they are back home with Jake Odorizzi set to start. Hindsight is 20/20, but maybe manager Rocco Baldelli should have kept Odorizzi as his Game 2 starter as Randy Dobnak was no match for the powerful Yankees lineup. But the Twins have a powerful lineup of their own, one that also hit 300+ home runs in the regular season, something no other team in baseball history had done prior to 2019. Giving them an additional 1.5 runs to work with at home seems like a smart play at home, especially because this is the first time in the series Minnesota looks to have the edge in the starting pitching matchup. Odorizzi has an 8-2 team start record his 10 trips to the mound. None of those have seen him give up more than three earned runs. It's a streak that goes all the way back to the end of July. The Yankees turn to Severino, who pitched just three times this year due to a shoulder injury. Up 2-0 in the series, this is probably the best time to try him, but we still think he's far from a safe bet at this point. While history is not on the Twins side tonight, we are, at least with them getting 1.5 runs. Play MINNESOTA on the RUN LINE. 

AAA

This is an 8* play on TAMPA BAY +1.5

The Rays are finding out the hard way just how difficult facing this Astros starting rotation can be in a postseason format. As expected, Tampa has struggled to score runs here, managing just three total in the first two games and none of those came against Houston starters Verlander and Cole. Now they are set to face Zack Grienke. At least they will do so at Tropicana Field where during the regular season the Rays allowed just 3.8 runs/game themselves.  It stands to reason that the game should be more competitive now. Also the Rays are going with Charlie Morton, the winner of the Wild Card Game, who allowed just one run across five innings. The Rays have now won Morton's last six starts. Morton has actually been one of the more consistent starters in the American League all season. He has a 23-11 team start record overall and his numbers at home are very good. His ERA is 2.59. His WHIP is 0.96. In their only previous trip to Tampa this year (very early in season), the Astros actually lost three of the four games. Play TAMPA BAY +1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is a 9* on MILWAUKEE +1.5 (RUN LINE)

The Brewers season appeared to be over when MVP candidate Christian Yelich fouled a ball off his knee. But instead of folding, the team surged in Yelich's absence, going 22-10 the final 32 games and earning this Wild Card berth (almost won the division). It's not always pretty with Milwaukee, but they do have one massive edge over Washington and that's the bullpen. The Nationals not only possess the worst bullpen of the 10 playoff teams this year, in terms of ERA they have one of the five worst pens in the last 21 seasons! It should be noted that the other four teams in the bottom five averaged 99 losses in their respective seasons. Milwaukee, on the other hand, won because of their bullpen not in spite of it.  In September, the Brewers turned in a 3.01 ERA, right at the top of all of baseball. As the decided favorite Tuesday, Washington is under a lot of pressure and this is a franchise that has often come up small in the postseason. If the Brewers can get an early lead, they can turn to the bullpen, which has been so dominant, to stay ahead. History suggests that starter Brandon Woodruff won't go long here. But if he can help get his team an early lead, they're golden. It's not like Woodruff isn't the right option to start here either. The team won 18 of the 22 games he started this year! The Nationals are going with Max Scherzer and while that seemingly gives them an edge, they were basically a coinflip proposition with him on the mound this year, going 14-13 in his 27 starts. They were 6-9 in his 15 home starts. Scherzer also struggled a bit down the stretch with a 6.11 ERA his last three starts. We can easily see Milwaukee winning this game, or if they lose it'll be by just one run. Take the run line and if the Brewers do win, don't be surprised if it's because of the bullpen. Play MILWAUKEE on the RUN LINE (+1.5)

AAA

This is an 8* play on TIGERS +1.5

The Tigers made a bit of history last night and it's not the kind they should be proud of as they lost to the Indians for an 18th time this year. No team had ever lost 18 times to a single opponent in a given year before this (Tigers beat the Indians just once). There's the potential for a lot more infamous history to be made here as Detroit has been outscored by 306 runs over the course of the season. Taking them, in any situation, is tough to advise. But we will today as you can grab the +1.5 at a relatively decent price going against a White Sox team that is also among the worst in the league. Sure, the White Sox aren't as bad as the Tigers. But their own -141 scoring differential is bottom six in baseball and the idea of them winning a road game by multiple runs is not something you should ever bank on, even when matched up with the Tigers. They're sending a pitcher (Dylan Cease) with a 6.04 ERA and 1.58 WHIP to the mound tonight. Normally, that would be an easy fade on the money line, but we do have to be cautious about who Detroit has pitching too as Jordan Zimmerman is 1-11. But Zimmerman has pitched pretty decent for someone with that kind of record, at least in the second half, as he has a 1.11 WHIP his last seven starts. Play DETROIT on the RUN LINE (+1.5)

AAA

This is an 8* play on MIAMI +1.5

The Marlins have not won a game in this series, which wraps up early Thursday afternoon. We played Milwaukee in one of the previous three games (Tuesday), but that was before they lost Christian Yelich to a season-ending injury. Last night, they were able to win the first game without Yelich, but it wasn't easy as they needed a tie-breaking 2-run home run from Mike Moustakas in the top of the ninth. It was the Brewers sixth victory in a row. But coming back and winning a day game is going to be tough, even though their opponent is having a poor season. The good news here for Miami is that starter Caleb Smith pitches a lot better at home. He has a 3.19 ERA in 12 starts at Marlins Park and the team's record is 7-5! His last start was a great one as he tossed six shutout innings of four-hit ball. Despite what's gone down in this series so far, Milwaukee has not been a particularly good road team this year. They have a losing record away from Miller Park and have swept only two road series all year. One was back in April vs. Cincinnati, the other last month in Pittsburgh. But both series were only three games. Gio Gonzalez has a 5.54 ERA and 1.62 WHIP for Milwaukee his last three starts. Play MIAMI on the RUN LINE +1.5 

AAA

This is a 10* play on HOUSTON -1.5 (Run Line)

Believe it or not, but there was a time early in the season when Seattle was ahead of Houston in the American League West standings. The Mariners started 13-2 out of the gate while Houston was only 10-5 through its first 15 games. Things have obviously gone quite differently since then. Seattle is just 45-80 since while Houston has gone 80-45, leading to a 32 game gap in the standings entering this series. We expect things to go very well on Friday for the Astros, so much so that we'll gladly lay the -1.5 on the run line here. Wade Miley, who has a 20-8 team start record, gets the nod tonight. He has a 3.86 ERA in four starts vs. Seattle this year which includes a win the last time he faced them. Miley has won seven straight decisions coming into tonight. Remember that Houston still has a lot to play for, namely home field advantage. Seattle has nothing left to play for and is an abysmal 1-12 vs. the Astros this year. Their starter for Friday, Marco Gonzales, has really struggled against Houston in his career. He's 0-4 with a 7.50 ERA. Houston is 51-17 at home and 16-3 after an off day. The Mariners a 4-12 as road dogs of +175 to +250. Should be a very easy win for the home team in this one. Play HOUSTON -1.5 on the RUN LINE

AAA

This is an 8* play on ARIZONA +1.5

We'll grab Arizona on the run line here as they'd won three in a row prior to Wednesday's home loss to Colorado. Meanwhile, Milwaukee had lost three in a row prior to winning Wednesday in a rain-shortened game. The Diamondbacks actually play better on the road as their scoring average jumps to 5.5 runs/game from 4.9 at home. This is a huge series with both teams desperately trying to get into Wild Card position. Run differential says - that despite an inferior record - Arizona has played better this year as they have outscored opponents by 64 runs. Milwaukee has a -35 run differential. Brewers starter Lyles has a 7.23 ERA in 20 previous appearances vs. Arizona. Merrill Kelly was quite decent in his last start for the Dbax, pitching five-plus innings and allowing only one run. Play ARIZONA +1.5 

AAA

This is an 8* play on CLEVELAND +1.5

Don't be fooled by the Indians losing 9-2 to the Mets on Tuesday. An embarrassing error (aren't they all?) in the outfield turned out to open the flood gates for Mets in the sixth innings and they took complete advantage. With the game tied 2-2, Cleveland's Oscar Mercado dropped a fly ball. The next at-bat saw Michael Conforto homer and from there, the Mets would tack on five more runs. Who knows how last night's game would have turned out had Mercado simply made the routine play. It's water under the bridge now, but don't expect Cleveland to forget easily. We can't endorse the Mets going from underdogs last night to favorites here as the price change simply doesn't make sense to us. Marcus Stroman has a 3-0 TSR for the Mets, but his ERA and WHIP in those three starts are 5.17 and 1.85. So it's not like Stroman has pitched well for his new team. Here's a tidbit for you: the Indians have not lost consecutive games by multiple runs this month. With Adam Plutko on the mound Wednesday night, look for that streak to continue as the Tribe either win or lose by just a single run. The offense was just 1 for 10 with runners in scoring position last night and should fare better in that situation tonight as well. Play CLEVELAND (+1.5) on the RUN LINE

AAA

This is an 8* Run Line play on PHILLIES +1.5

This is a great price to grab an extra 1.5 runs against the Cubs, who have proven to be not very good on the road. They could only manage a split with the feisty Reds over the weekend and were actually outscored over the four games. They're only 23-35 for the year on the road and have a losing record (5-6) as a favorite of -125 to -175. As for the Phillies, they are badly in need of a victory after dropping five of their last six. This slide has them down in fourth place in their own division, but they're still only two back of the Wild Card. They'll be going up against Jose Quintana tonight and he has a 5.29 ERA in three previous starts in Philadelphia. His ERA (surprise, surprise) is higher on the road than it is at home. Jason Vargas will be making his third start for the Phillies since being traded from the Mets and he is 3-0 lifetime vs. the Cubs. The Cubs have not won any of their last 11 road series, by the way. Play PHILADELPHIA +1.5 

AAA

This is an 8* play on ST. LOUIS +1.5

Needless to say, this series has gone a lot differently for the Cardinals than the one where they hosted the Dodgers back in April. We can't say we're surprised by that. After all, we did win with the Dodgers on Monday. Tuesday's game was another win for LA, this time 3-1, as they improved to 76-40 overall and 45-15 at home. When these clubs met back in April, the series was in St. Louis and the Cards won all four games. Now they are just trying to avoid getting swept. Taking them +1.5 on the run line today seems like a good call to us. The Dodgers are great, but they've got a weak starter going this afternoon in Dustin May, who has made just one prior start (last week) and it didn't go too well with the team losing 5-2 to San Diego. Jack Flaherty threw seven shutout innings of one-hit ball his last start as he continues to be lights out for the Cardinals. Flaherty's last five starts have seen him give up a total of just four runs in 31 1/3 innings on only 15 hits. He hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of the five starts and four of them have seen him allow 0 or 1. So getting an extra run and a half here seems like a nice deal. Play ST. LOUIS +1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is an 8* play on LA +1.5

The Angels tasted defeat at the hands of the Reds last night in Cincinnati, losing the opener 7-4. If you look up the definition of "mediocrity" in the dictionary, there might very well be a picture of the Angels logo next to it as this team perennially hovers around the .500 mark. They've now lost five in a row coming into Tuesday. While not the worst stretch of the season, one more loss and it will match it (they lost six in a row back in April). We like them getting 1.5 runs tonight at Great American Ballpark as the Reds have struggled to put together win streaks this year in spite of being a pretty underrated team. They are only 22-31 off a win. Part of the problem is they don't score a ton of runs. Only eight teams have scored fewer. The Angels rotation may not be in good shape overall, but Jose Suarez is likely to pitch better than you might think tonight. For Cincy, DeSclafani still has pretty mediocre numbers, including a 2-6 team start record at home. Play LOS ANGELES +1.5

AAA

This is an 8* play on MILWAUKEE +1.5

The Cubs have lost ground in the NL Central by dropping six of nine on the just completed road trip, which had them make stops in both Milwaukee and St. Louis. They now trail the Cardinals by a game in the race for first place and are just a game up on the Brewers entering this weekend's all-important rematch. The series starts with a day game Friday and we like Milwaukee getting the +1.5 here as Chicago has really struggled to score runs of late, averaging only 3.3 the last seven games while batting .187. Zach Davies did not fare well against them this past Sunday, but we like his chances this afternoon given those Cubs struggles at the plate. Davies has had great stretches this year, like when he went 5-0 with a 1.54 ERA through his first nine starts and when he allowed just one run in his first three starts of July. Chicago's Jose Quintana was hardly sharp when he beat Davies Sunday and he's actually posted a 5.68 ERA his previous seven starts. The Brewers won't do any worse than a one-run loss today. Play MILWAUKEE +1.5

AAA

This is an 8* play on CLEVELAND +1.5 (run line)

The Indians made headlines yesterday by trading Trevor Bauer to the Reds, which may seem strange for a team in playoff position, but Bauer was highly unlikely to stick around Cleveland anyway and truthfully hadn't been as effective as he was in 2018. They got multiple players in return, one of them being Yasiel Puig, who was ironically involved in that wild Pirates-Reds brawl yesterday when news of the trade broke. All this was far more exciting than the performance the Indians put forth on the diamond last night as they lost 2-0 to Houston. The Astros represent a lot "stiffer" competition than what Cleveland has generally seen recently, but given that the Indians have only lost six times all month, backing them at home +1.5 (run line) seems to be a wise decision. Zach Plesac will now get the start, taking Adam Plutko's spot, and that's just fine by us. Plesac has a 1.12 ERA and 0.94 WHIP his last three times out. Houston will go with Urquidy, who has looked good his last two outings after struggling some in the first two. The Indians are a perfect 7-0 at home this season in games where the total is 10 or 10.5. We think they'll do no worse than a one-run loss here and probably win. Solid value! Play CLEVELAND +1.5 (Run Line)

AAA

This is an 8* run line play on SEATTLE +1.5

Take Seattle using the run line here as we don't see them doing any worse than a one-run loss in this series finale with Texas this afternoon. While the Mariners have lost 8 of their last 10, including 7-2 last night to the Rangers, Texas had lost eight in a row before finally breaking through on Tuesday. Rangers starter Minor seems to have really slowed down of late as he's winless his last three starts and just gave up four home runs in his most recent one. All were solo shots, but it was still the second straight start where Minor gave up four runs. The Mariners are going with Leake, who recently tossed his second complete game of the summer. No pitcher in baseball has more complete games this season. Leake will also be motivated today as he's 0-2 vs. Minor this year. But Minor and the Rangers have faded badly over the last month and it's rare that they are favored on the road. That they are favored on the road after such a long stretch of losing seems curious at best. Play SEATTLE +1.5

AAA

This is an 8* play on PITTSBURGH +1.5

Taking Pittsburgh on the run line (+1.5) here as they were just able to defeat the Cubs three times in a four-game set played right before the All Star Break. Given that, we see no reason why they couldn't win here, even though the Cubs have proven to be a much better team at home. The last three starts for Yu Darvish have not been good as the Cubs have lost all of them with the Japanese native posting a 6.62 ERA. He has a very similar ERA for the year here at Wrigley (6.23), so that's another poor sign. Meanwhile, the Pirates have won the last four times Chris Archer has started, including a 6-5 decision against Darvish and the Cubs back on July 3rd. In the final week before the break, Pittsburgh went 5-2 and averaged 8.0 runs/game. We think they'll score enough here that the worst-case result for them is a one-run loss.  Play PITTSBURGH on the run line (+1.5)

AAA

This is an 8* play on San Fran +1.5

Both of these teams have excelled in one-run games this year with the Padres going 18-9 and Giants at 17-9. Those are actually the two best records in the league in one-run affairs, so both teams have to be a little upset with where they stand currently. We won't be upset if this is a one-run game though as either way it would be a win for us as we're playing the run line. San Diego had a four-game win streak stopped yesterday by St. Louis. San Francisco won its game Sunday, 10-4 over Arizona. While Padres starting pitcher Allen has accounted well for himself in his first two starts, we're not ready to put our money on him. Jeff Samardzija has an 8-3 career record vs. the Padres with some of the best starts coming here in Petco. He's held the Padres to a .197 batting average in nine previous outings here. San Diego doesn't score enough at home (just 3.9 runs/game) to be trusted to win by multiple runs here. The Giants could very well take this game outright considering they have won six of their last eight series openers. Play San Francisco +1.5 on the RUN LINE

AAA

This is an 8* play on San Fran RUN LINE (+1.5)

The Giants evened up this series with a 4-2 win yesterday, getting a strong outing from Madison Bumgarner. It's been a low scoring series so far and armed with an extra run and a half in their pocket, I think the home team is the right call here. The last time Jeff Samardzija faced the Rockies, he shut them out for seven innings and the Giants won that game 1-0. Now the last time German Marquez (today's starter for Colorado) faced the Giants, he shut them out as well (it was the same series). But Colorado just isn't as potent at the plate when they're on the road and we don't see them scoring too many runs in this game. Then there is the matter that they are 5-14 the L19 times they've been off a game where they score two runs or fewer. They are also only 6-15 the L21 games at San Francisco, including 1-4 when Marquez is on the mound. Play SAN FRANCISCO +1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is an 8* on Boston Run Line (-1.5)

This should be a very easy win for Boston, so we're not hesitating to lay the -1.5, even at the unusually high price. The Red Sox have taken the first two games, 6-5 and 6-3, and now send out Chris Sale to finish the sweep. While one of the two prior wins did come by just one run, this should be the most lopsided game of the series. The last time Sale faced his former team, he shut them out for six innings in what ended up being a 6-1 Boston victory. It takes a heck of a pitching effort to beat Sale and quite frankly we don't think Chicago's Reynaldo Lopez is up to the challenge. He comes in with a 6.23 ERA and 1.57 WHIP, the kind of numbers you never see from Sale. Also, in addition to being 1-5 vs. the Red Sox this season, the White Sox are just 12-23 in day games. Sale has 106 strikeouts in his last 10 starts, a span of 65 1/3 innings. Chicago lost Tim Anderson to a sprained ankle in yesterday's game and he'd been one of the team's top hitters. No chance for the White Sox in this one. Play on BOSTON -1.5 (RUN LINE)

AAA

This is a 10* on Houston -1.5 

The Astros absolutely trashed the Blue Jays Friday night (won 15-2!) and should be able to do it again this afternoon. The Blue Jays are pretty much one of the worst teams in baseball right now. Only two teams have been outscored more runs over the course of the season: Baltimore and Detroit. The only real reason to follow the team, Vlad Guerrero Jr, has been a disappointment (thus far) and had to leave last night's game after taking a fastball to the hand. His status for Saturday is unclear, but even with him in the lineup, Toronto has the worst batting average in all of MLB. They probably won't be getting good pitching today either as Clayton Richard has a 7.04 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in his four starts. He gave up seven runs in only 2 2/3 innings in the last one. The Jays' closer (Ken Giles) is also on the DL. Houston has injuries up and down its lineup right now, but last night proved that hardly matters. Framber Valdez looked good in his first start even though the Astros lost the game. He went seven innings and allowed just a run. Play Houston -1.5 on the Run Line.

AAA

This is a 10* play on SF -1.5

If any two teams were "destined" to play a one-run game today it would be these two. Both have done quite well for themselves in one-run games this year with the Padres at 16-6 and the Giants 14-6. All we need is a one-run game and it's a win for us either way as we'll be playing the run line (Giants +1.5) in this one. Chris Paddack has started to slow down for the Padres, giving up 10 runs in his last two starts. He's only 4-4 on the year. The Padres have only two wins in the last six games overall and both came by one run. Four of the seven times they've won with Paddack on the mound this year have been one run affairs. The Giants could very well win this game as well. Beede is starting for the first time at home. Play San Francisco RUN LINE (+1.5)

AAA

This is a 10* play on BOSTON using the Run Line (-1.5)

We don't see Texas being any match for Chris Sale and Boston Monday night. Sale has pitched much better than a 4-9 team start record shows. He has a sub 1.00 WHIP, including 0.76 the last three times he's started. His last start was a gem as he tossed a complete game shutout with 12 strikeouts, giving up only three hits along the way. In his last seven starts, he's struck out 10+ six times. Somehow Sale has yet to win a decision this year at Fenway, but look for that to change here - in a major way - as the Red Sox should win this game by multiple runs. Texas lost yesterday - as they ended up splitting a four game series against Oakland. They have Mike Minor pitching today and he has pitched well. But we're looking for the Boston offense (5th in scoring) to break out against him. The Red Sox are 11-2 vs. the Rangers since 2017, winning six of the last seven meetings. Sale is 7-2 with a 2.82 ERA in 14 career starts vs. Texas. Play on TEXAS

AAA

This is a 9* play on KANSAS CITY on the RUN LINE

The Royals beat the White Sox last night and we believe they're more than capable of doing the same today. Just to be safe, we'll grab them on the run line though. After all, KC's record in one-run games is a very poor 4-12. Playing the run line will cover us were that situation to arise. Friday's win snapped a six-game losing streak for the Royals while sending Chicago to its third straight defeat. There's been no better pitcher for the White Sox than Lucas Giolito, who gets the starting nod here. The team is 9-2 in his 11 starts this season, including 7-0 the L7. The majority of those games have been low-scoring though, which again brings the +1.5 possibly into play.  Chicago is only 12-19 on the road and 10-21 in day games, so even with Giolito on the mound, it seems like a good time to fade them. Brad Keller has been fairly solid for Kansas City in 2019 and has faced the White Sox three times already. He's allowed a total of six runs in 18 innings. Only one of those was at home though and he threw seven scoreless frames. Play KANSAS CITY on the RUN LINE 

AAA

This is an 8* RUN LINE play on the LA ANGELS +1.5

For the second straight series, the Angels find themselves in an unenviable position. As the home team, they've lost the first three games of a four game series. Now in this exact same scenario, we played them Sunday against Seattle and they won. It was an easy win too as they coasted to an 8-6 victory (led 8-1 going into the 9th) behind Jaime Barria. But tonight they face the Yankees. As daunting a prospect as that may sound, two of the Angels three losses in this series have come by one run. Last night was brutal as they blew a 5-run lead and lost 6-5. Now 1-9 the L10 games, five of those losses for the Angels have come by exactly one run. So with the +1.5 now an option (wasn't Sunday vs. Seattle), we'll take it. Look for Trevor Cahill to pitch better than he has recently while we expect the opposite from Yankees starter Masahiro Tanaka. Three of the Yankees last four wins have been by one run. At this price, the run line is a tremendous value Thursday. Play on LA ANGELS +1.5

AAA

This is an 8* FIST-FIGHT on the Giants on the RUN-LINE.

We think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the Madison Bumgarner and the Giants on the RUN-LINE. The Dodgers hand the ball to Hyun-Jin Ryu (6-3, 2.00 ERA) who has been “lights out” this season, but we think regression is imminent. He was 5-9 with a 3.97 ERA last year and the Giants and Bumgarner (6-6, 3.20) who has been almost untouchable at home by going 4-2 with a 1.34 ERA. We’re banking on this one being very competitive, decided late or in extra innings. Play on the GIANTS on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Kansas City Royals.

While we don’t think that the outright win is out of the question, we’re going to recommend to grabbing the 1.5 runs of insurance. The home side sends Jake Junis (5-10, 5.03 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits with six strikeouts over four innings in a no-decision to Minnesota on Saturday. It was his first start back from the DL and he’d throw 53 of his 77 pitches for strikes. Junis now looks rested/injury-free and we think he’ll return to the form which saw him throw quality outings in six of his first seven of the season, before tweaking his back. The home side goes with Sonny Gray (7-7, 5.34) who gave up three runs and three walks over 5.1 innings in what turned out to be a victory over the Mets in his first start back from the break. Gray is coming off back-to-back victories, but note that he’s still a terrible 3-3 with a 7.62 ERA at home this season. KC has looked better offensively over the last month, so we expect the hungry visiting side to keep this one competitive this evening. Play on the ROYALS on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 6* play on the Brewers on the RUN-LINE.

We like the Brewers to build off yesterday’s 6-1 victory. The visitors go with Jeremy Hellickson (4-1, 3.29 ERA) who put together a fantastic first half showing. So far he has a 1.05 WHOP and 49:12 K:BB over 63 innings. These numbers seem unsustainable to us though, considering the veteran was a poor 8-11 with a 5.43 ERA last year. Regression is imminent for Hellickson moving forward in our opinion. The home side goes with Junior Guerra (6-6, 3.23) who was placed on the ten-day DL prior to the mid summer classic. He’s had extra time off and he’s ready to go in the second half; note that he’s 3-3 with a 2.55 ERA at home thus far. While the outright isn’t out of the question, we’ll ultimately lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; play on the BREWERS on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 6* play on the Phillies on the RUN-LINE.

We had a play on the Dodgers last night and feel a bit fortunate that they managed to gut out the victory. With their ace on the mound though, we look for the Phillies to fight back on Tuesday. The visitors hand the ball to ace Kenta Maeda (7-5, 3.12 ERA) who for the most part was solid for LA over the first half. Wrong place, wrong time for Maeda though here in our opinion. As note that Aaron Nola (12-3, 2.30 ERA) comes in having thrown five straight quality starts and 16 overall during the first half for the Phillies. Note that Nola has been “lights out” at home with an 8-0, 1.71 ERA as well. Lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; play on the PHILLIES on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* RUN-LINE “BIG TIGER” on the Baltimore Orioles.

We had a play on Boston yesterday, but we think the home side will keep it competitive facing Drew Pomeranz tonight. Pomeranz (1-3, 6.81 ERA) returns for his first action since May 31st. He’s thrown six minor league re-hab starts, but clearly there’s going to be some rust to shake off at the MLB level. Note that he’s 0-1 with a 5.79 ERA on the road. The home side goes with Yefry Ramirez (0-3. 3.09) who finished the first half with an unfortunate no-decision to Texas, going five scoreless while striking out seven. Over 23.1 innings he’s posted a very respectable 24:9 K:BB. While the outright isn’t out of the question in our opinion, we’re going to lay the pick em price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance in the end; play on the ORIOLES on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the Indians on the RUN-LINE.

This is a clear mismatch on the mound, one so large that we feel more than comfortable in laying the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price. The visitors hand the ball to Trevor Williams (7-7, 4.36 ERA) who blanked Washington over five innings in his final outing before the mid summer classic. Williams though has just 71 strikeouts over 99 innings and he’s just 2-3 with a 4.79 ERA on the road this year. Corey Kluber (12-5, 2.76) gets the nod for the home side and he gave up six runs to the Yanks in his final start before the break. He’d go seven innings and strikeout nine though. Starts like that have truly been few and far between for Kluber this season though; note that he still owns the tiny 0.91 WHIP while posting an enormous 132 strikeouts over 133.2 innings. Note as well that he’s 7-2 with a 2.00 ERA at home. Lay the 1.5 runs, play on the INDIANS on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the Marlins on the RUN-LINE.

Atlanta pitcher Sean Newcomb has struggled over the last month and we expect further regression here. Newcomb (8-5, 3.51 ERA) posted a 9.75 ER with seven strikeouts and 12 walks over three July appearances. The home side goes with Jose Urena (2-9, 4.39) who has endured plenty of bad luck and poor run support this season. He hasn’t been perfect this season obviously, but he still sports a respectable 3.45 ERA in all “night” contests. We like Urena to out duel Newcomb at home and for the MARLINS to cover with extra RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 6* ART OF THE GAME on the ROCKIES on the RUN-LINE.

Colorado had the night off on Thursday, while Seattle would close out its series with the Angels with a 4-1 win last night. While we wouldn’t be shocked by the outright upset here, in a contest which we envision being decided late or in extra innings, we’re going to lay the steeper price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The Rockies hand the ball to German Marquez (6-8, 5.14 ERA) who gave up one run over eight innings in a win over the Dodgers on Saturday, allowing two hits and striking out nine. Marquez has been solid away from Coors this year with a 3.07 ERA. The home side goes with Felix Hernandez (8-6, 5.11) who gave up three runs off six hits over five innings in a win over the Royals on Saturday. Hernandez has been better at home than on the road, but we think his inconsistency from one game to the next comes back to haunt “The King” again here. We think Seattle comes in complacent after last night’s win and we expect Marquez to easily match his erratic counterpart tonight. Play on the ROCKIES on the RUN-LINE.

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This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Detroit Tigers (4:10 EST).

The Tigers smashed the Jays yesterday and while the outright win isn’t out of the question here either, we think the value is the home side on the RUN-LINE for the near pick-em price. The visitors go with JA Happ (7-3, 3.84 ERA) who gave up three runs off six hits over 6.2 innings in a win over the Phillies on Sunday. It’s hard to say anything negative about Happ, as he’s been Toronto’s best pitcher this year, but we simply feel he’s over-priced in this matchup. The home side turns to the underrated Matt Boyd (3-4, 3.00) who went five scoreless in a victory over the Angels on Monday. Boyd’s red hot spring training has carried over for the most part in the regular season and note that he’s consistently been at his best in front of the home town crowd this year by going 3-1 with a 1.84 ERA. Note as well that Toronto is a horrible 8-14 (-6.4 units) against southpaws, while Detroit is a solid 8-7 (+4.4 units) against lefties. Play on the TIGERS on the RUN-LINE.

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This is a 6* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Arizona Diamondbacks.

We like Arizona to keep this one close enough to at the very least, cover with the point spread. The visitors hand the ball to Zack Greinke (3-3, 3.71 ERA) who gave up four runs off five hits while striking out nine over six innings in a loss to the Brewers on Monday. Starts like that have been few and far between for Greinke though, who still owns a solid 3.71 ERA to go along with an elite 0.99 WHIP and 67 strikeouts over 60 innings of work. The home side goes with Frankie Montas (0-0, 0.00) who has been recalled from Triple-A Nashville to make this start. Over 41 innings for the Sounds, the 25 year old owns a pedestrian 4.39 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and a 33/13 K/W. Last year in relief for the A’s he’d post a poor 7.03 ERA over 32 innings of work. The Diamondbacks have been struggling at the plate of late, but after yesterday’s 3-0 defeat, we look for Greinke to keep this one competitive. Lay the price, play on the DIAMONDBACKS on the RUN-LINE.

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This is a 6* play on the Braves on the RUN-LINE.

Vince Velasquez has looked better after a disastrous start to the 2018 campaign, but we think the “safe” call in this one is to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The visitors turn to Brandon McCarthy (4-2, 5.05 ERA) who struck out eight and gave up one run off five hits over six innings in a no-decision against the hard-hitting Cubs on Wednesday. Velasquez (4-4, 4.37) went 6.1 scoreless innings against the Cards on Thursday. Note though that it was the first time in five starts that Velasquez did not give up a home run. We think Velasquez finally has a predictable letdown here, while McCarthy looks poised to build off his recent decent performance. Lay the price, play on the BRAVES on the RUN-LINE.

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This is an 8* SITUATIONAL ASSASSIN on the REDS on the RUN-LINE.

The Reds recently lost the services of slugger Joey Votto, but MLB handicapping for the most part comes down to the starting pitching. While neither of these starters instills much confidence, we think that Matt Harvey can at the very least match his erratic counterpart tonight inning for inning. So in a contest which we envision being decided late or even in extra frames, we think that laying the mid sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance is definitely the way to go in this one. Harvey (0-2, 6.10 ERA) struck out two, walked none and gave up a single hit in a no-decision over four innings in his debut for his new team. On two occasions Harvey’s fast-ball reached 96 MPH and he’d retire 12 of 13 batters overall. A motivated/focused Harvey gets ready to battle the Giants’ Andrew Suarez (1-2, 4.57) who gave up five runs off seven hits over four innings in a loss to the Pirates on Friday. Suarez has a poor ERA, supported by his sub-par 2.1 HR/9 over his first 21.2 big-league innings. For all the reasons listed above, play on the REDS on the RUN-LINE.

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This is an 8* RUN-LINE SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Cincinnati Reds.

We think that Matt Harvey offers great value in this spot as the right-hander looks to start off on the “right foot” with his new team. Harvey has a 6.00 ERA and 1.43 WHIP this year, but he does have the track record and pedigree to return to form. Perhaps being out of the microscope of the New York media will help the hard-throwing right-hander turn things around. Harvey does bonus from the fact the the Dodgers have been pretty anemic at the plate this year and that Chavez Ravine is a “pitchers park.” The home side will counter with Kenta Maeda (2-2, 4.02) most recently gave up three runs off four this and a walk over five innings in a no-decision against the Padres on Saturday. Maeda’s strikeout numbers have been impressive, but his peripherals leave something to be desired (4.02 ERA and 1.40 WHIP), indeed suggesting that rockier times are ahead. The bottom line is we feel that Harvey and the hungry REDS can at the very least keep this one close enough to cover with the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Play on Cincinnati on the RUN-LINE.

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This is an 8* play Dodgers on the RUN-LINE.

We feel that the massive talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs and the mid-sized price. The visitors hand the ball to Trevor Richards (0-2, 6.16 ERA) who was blasted for six runs off five hits with six walks over 3.2 innings in a loss to Milwaukee on Friday. Richards has lasted past the fifth frame just once out of his first four starts and to go along with his elevated 6.16 ERA, he also sports a poor 1.68 WHIP. The home side counters with ace Clayton Kershaw (1-3, 2.45) whose win/loss record is obviously not entirely indicative of his overall performance to this point. Kershaw though will be eager to get back on track after allowing four earned runs off nine hits over seven innings in a loss to Washington on Friday (four K’s, zero walks.) To go along with his very respectable 2.45 ERA, Kershaw comes into this one with an elite 0.97 WHIP. All signs point to a blowout, play on the DODGERS on the RUN-LINE.

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This is an 8* RUN-LINE SUPER BLOWOUT on the Astros.

No need to overthink this one. Bartolo Colon (0-0, 1.64 ERA) is being pressed into starting action here with Doug Fister sidelined with injury. Colon was 7-14 with a 6.48 ERA last year and he was particularly poor on the road, going just 3-8 with a 6.81 ERA. The home side counters with Justin Verlander (2-0, 1.45), who most recently went seven scoreless against the Twins on Monday. So far Verlander has an 11.1 K/9 and 0.96 WHIP and there’s no reason not to think that the hard-throwing right-hander won’t be able to keep up the momentum here. Note that Texas is already just 2-7 (-3.6 units) this year against clubs with winning records, while Houston is 7-2 (+1.8 units) against clubs with losing records. Lay the price and the 1.5 runs and kick back and relax and watch this one roll in with ease. Play on the ASTROS on the RUN-LINE.

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This is an 8* play on the Marlins on the RUN-LINE.

We’re going to lay what we feel to be a very reasonable mid-sized price on a contest which we believe is much more even than what Las Vegas wants us to think. The visitors turn to Dillon Peters (1-0, 0.00 ERA) who went six scoreless in his opener against the Cubs, giving up five hits and one walk to go along with two K’s. The home side counters with the erratic Vince Velasquez (0-1, 13.50) who was rocked for seven runs off nine hits and two walks over 2.2 innings in a 15-2 loss to Atlanta on Saturday. Note that Miami is 87-83 (+8.7 units) the last two years following a loss, while Philadelphia is just 57-80 (-12.2 units) in the same span following a victory. Lay the reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs. Play on the MARLINS on the RUN-LINE.

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This is an 8* play on the Yankees on the RUN-LINE.

Chris Tillman (0-1, 9.00 ERA) goes for Baltimore. Tillman was shelled for four runs off seven hits and four walks with no K’s over four innings in a loss to Houston in his season opener. Tillman only played in 93 innings last year and he posted a terrible 7.84 ERA. The Yanks’ Sonny Gray (0-0, 2.25 ERA) gave up one run off seven hits and three walks over four innings in a no-decision against Toronto in his debut. Gray did allow ten opponents to reach base, but he did go on to strike out eight. Note that Baltimore is already 1-2 (-1.2 units) in day games, while New York is 3-2 (+1 unit) in the same position. The talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price. Play on NEW YORK on the RUN LINE.

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This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the LA Dodgers.

In a contest which we envision being decided late or even in extra frames, we’re going to lay what we feel to be a very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance.

Hyun-Jin Ryu: Ryu had his last start skipped over. In his previous outing he pitched well enough to win, but suffered an unforunate no-decision after allowing one run off three hits over six innings. Ryu’s numbers are solid across the board, sporting a 3.72 ERA on the road and a 3.58 ERA in all “night” games.

Stephen Strasburg: He’s 13-4 with a 2.64 ERA. Strasburg most recently went eight shutout innings in a victory over the Phillies on Sunday. Strasburg has posted 34 straight scoreless innings, but just like the Indians’ 22-game win streak coming to an end the other night, all good things must also eventually come to an end for the Nationals’ hard-throwing right-hander. 

The bottom line: Regression does seem imminent at some point for Strasburg, but that said, we believe that Ryu can match him inning for inning anyways. And in a scenario like that we think the value swings to the league-leading visiting side. Play on the DODGERS on the RUN-LINE.

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This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Boston Red Sox on the RUN-LINE.

We had a play on Boston yesterday in its big 11-1 win over the A’s and suffice it to say, we’re expecting another blowout here as well.

Jharel Cotton: He’s 7-10 with a 5.82 ERA. Cotton gave up seven runs off seven hits, including three dingers, over five innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Astros on Friday. Cotton has now been rocked for 12 home runs over his last six starts for a deplorable 3.2 HR/9 over that span (note that he’s 1-7 with an 8.00 ERA in all “night” games this year.)

Doug Fister: He’s 5-7 with a 3.91 ERA. Fister comes in off a gem against Toronto on Wednesday, giving up four hits while striking out nine over seven scoreless innings of work. Fister has a 1.50 ERA and 0.73 WHIP over his last four starts and enjoys a couple exrta days off before making this start.

The bottom line: Note that Oakland is just 1-3 (-2 units) in its last four after allowing ten runs or more, while Boston is 3-1 (+1.7 units) in its last four after scoring ten runs or more. We like Fister to continue his blazing streak of superior plays and for the home side to take full advantage of this favorable matchup. Play on the RED SOX on the RUN-LINE.

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This is a 10* RUN-LINE GAME OF THE YEAR on the LA Dodgers.

After getting swept on the road in Arizona, we look for the Dodgers to bounce back in fine fashion tonight with their ace finally back on the mound tonight.

Clayton Kershaw: He’s 15-2 with a 2.04 ERA. Although he’ll be on a pitch count on his first start back, we believe his time in the game will be more than enough to secure a big early lead for the now razor focused visiting side. The sweep at the hands of the D-Backs was humbling to say the least. Kershaw was strong in his only start in Triple-A, striking out eight and giving up one run over five innings. 

Dinelson Lamet: He’s 7-5 with a 4.60 ERA. Lamet comes in off a strong performance against the Marlins on Saturay, allowing one run over six innings of work, unfortunate to receive a no-decision for his effort. Lamet has admittedly looked a lot better of late, but we simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

The bottom line: Note that LA is 19-11 (+3.3 units) in its last 30 after three or more consecutive losses, while San Diego is just 3-5 (-1 units) this year after shutting out its opponent. Play on the DODGERS RUN-LINE.

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This is an 8* BIG TIGER on the Cleveland Indians on the RUN-LINE.

We feel that the massive talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price. 

German Marquez: He’s 9-4 with a 4.11 ERA. Marquez most recently allowed three runs off six hits over six innings in a no-decision against the Mets on Thursday. Marquez has been solid across the board in his second season, but if he’s had one clear weakness it’s been his play in all “night” games, where he’s posted a poor 5.23 ERA thus far.

Corey Kluber: He’s 9-3 with a 2.77 ERA. Kluber comes in off a complete game against the Yanks on Thursday, giving up one run off three hits with one walk to go along with 11 K’s. Kluber has now posted double digit strikeouts in nine of his last ten starts with a 1.70 ERA and 113:12 K:BB in the process. Kluber has to be feeling pretty confident in this spot as he’s 7-1 with a 2.22 ERA at home.

The bottom line: We think Marquez will get chased early and we’re expecting another strong effort from Kluber. Play on the INDIANS on the RUN-LINE.

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This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Boston Red Sox on the RUN-LINE.

We think that the massive talent discrepancy on the mound and at the plate absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs and mid-sized price in what we expect to be an epic rout from start to finish.

James Shields: He’s 2-3 with a 6.19 ERA. Shields gave up six runs off eight hits while striking out six over six innings in a no-decision against the Jays on Monday. Note that he’s been particularly horrible in this position all season long, 0-0 with a 5.88 ERA on the road and just 1-2 with a 7.09 ERA in all “night” games.

Drew Pomeranz: He’s 10-4 with a 3.46 ERA. Pomeranz comes in off a gem against the Royals on Sunday, allowing one run over 6.2 innings. Pomeranz has been solid of late, posting four quality outings in his last six trips to the hill (note that he’s 6-2 with a 3.64 ERA at home and 9-3 with a 3.43 ERA in all “night” games this season.)

The bottom line: I’ll point out that Chicago is just 13-17 (-2.4 units) this year against southpaws, while Boston is 49-37 (+1.1 units) against right-handed starters. Play on the RED SOX on the RUN-LINE.

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This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Washington Nationals on the RUN-LINE.

In a contest which we foresee being decided late or in extra innings, we’re going to lay what we feel to be a very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance.

Tanner Roark: He’s 8-7 with a 4.93 ERA. Roark gave up four runs while striking out eight over five innings in a loss to Colorado on Saturday. Roark though has given up just six earned runs over his last three starts.

Kyle Hendricks: He’s 4-3 with a 3.80 ERA. Hendricks gave up one run over five innings in a victory over the Brewers on Saturday. This will be Hendricks third start since coming back from the DL, note that he owns a rather pedestrian 4.01 ERA at homt so far this season.

The bottom line: Note that Washington is 16-10 (+3.4 units) this year against teams with winning records this season, while Chicago is just 19-23 (-10 units) against clubs with winning records this year. Play on the NATIONALS on the RUN-LINE.

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This is a 10* “RED DRAGON” on the Detroit Tigers on the RUN-LINE.

These starters are moving in opposite directions and while we wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, in the end we feel there’s great value with the home side on the RUN-LINE this afternoon:

Lance McCullers: He’s 7-2 with a 3.67 ERA. McCullers most recently gave up six runs off nine hits and two walks over 4.1 innings in a loss to Baltimore on Sunday. McCullers has now allowed 20 runs over his last four starts and owns a poor 4.36 ERA on the road.

Justin Verlander: He’s 5-7 with a 4.50 ERA. Verlander gave up three runs off five hits and two walks while striking out nine over seven innings in a loss to the Royals on Monday. Verlander has now allowed three runs or fewer in ten of his last 11 starts and is 3-2 with a respectable 3.62 ERA at home this season.

The bottom line: Looks like this one could come down to the wire, so grab the insurance. Play on the TIGERS on the RUN-LINE.

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This is a 6* BIG-CHALK RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Oakland A’s.

We had a play on the A’s straight up as a big dog last night and they’d end up losing 7-5. Tonight we’re expecting an even closer affair which will once again be decided late or in extra innings and as such, we’re going to grab the extra 1.5 runs of insurance:

Sean Manaea: He’s 8-5 with a 3.68 ERA. Manaea gave up two earned runs over seven innings in a victory over Cleveland on Sunday. Manaea has now allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight of 11 starts this season (owns a very respectable 3.72 ERA on the road as well.)

Zack Wheeler: He’s 3-7 with a 4.98 ERA. Wheeler gave up four runs off seven hits and four walks while striking out five over five innings in a loss to St. Louis on Monday. Note that he owns a poor 2-5, 5.52 record/ERA at home so far this season.

The bottom line: Often the best indicator we have when trying to assess starting pitching is “recent performance” and in this case, there’s no question that Manaea has the advantage in that department. Lay the price for the 1.5 runs, play on the A’s on the RUN-LINE.

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This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Miami Marlins.

We’re laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance in this one.

Joe Musgrove: He’s 2-3 with a 5.02 ERA. He most reecntly gave up two runs off four hits and three walks while stirking out four over six frames in a 4-2 win over the Braves on Wednesday. Musgrove has for the most part been a big disappointment this year and note that he was a deplorable 1-3 with a 7.27 ERA on the road last year.

Dan Straily: He’s 1-3 with a 4.03 ERA. Most recently he went seven innings aginst the Cards and gave up one run over seven innings, walking only one batter. Note that Straily owned a 2.38 ERA at home last year.

The bottom line: Houston just took two of three from New York over the weekend, winning on Friday night, before having its game on Saturday rained out, then losing the first game of the double header on Sunday afternoon, before then bouncing back to take the night-cap. Miami on the other wrapped up a 3-1 win over the Braves yesterday afternoon. Lay the price for the insurance, play on the MARLINS on the RUN-LINE.

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