This is an 8* on the OVER

It's been confirmed that the Steelers are starting 3rd stringer Devlin Hodges Sunday night as backup Mason Rudolph is still unable to return from last week's concussion. Of course, Ben Roethlisberger's season is over after an injury suffered in the second game. That's the current state of the Steelers, who are 1-4 after suffering a tough 23-20 home loss to Baltimore in overtime. They did score with Hodges in the game as he went 7 of 9 for 63 yards. In College, Hodges won the Walter Payton Award in 2018 while at Samford, meaning he was the best player at the FCS level. Maybe he has a higher upside than Rudolph? We do think the Steelers will be able to score on a Chargers defense that's giving up 6.3 yards per play. Take away the ugly opener in New England and Pittsburgh has scored at least 20 points in every game. Los Angeles is off a bad home loss to Denver last week in which they scored only 13 points. But they turned it over twice inside the 5-yard line, so there easily could have more points for them. Philip Rivers and company, while short-handed, should bounce back tonight. RB Gordon is back after a lengthy holdout. The Under is 4-0 the Chargers last four games, but the Over is 4-1 in the last five matchups with the Steelers. The key angle here is that this is the lowest total of the season for either team. Game goes Over. Play OVER Pittsburgh-LA Chargers

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Atlanta is favored in this one, but it sure doesn't feel like they should be. That's cause they've lost three in a row and four of five to open the season. Arizona is now 1-3-1 after picking up its first win last week at the expense of winless Cincinnati. The Falcons completely fell apart late in the game vs. Houston last week and ended up giving up 53 points. It was a one-possession game going into the final two minutes but they ended up losing by 21. We expect a better defensive effort this week. At the same time, they hadn't scored more than 24 in a game themselves before last week. The Cardinals had been held to 20 points or less in the three games prior to last week's win. Two of their top offensive players - RB Johnson and WR Kirk - may not play Sunday. The Under is 22-9 the Cardinals last 31 home games. The Cardinals have been settling for far too many field goals this year. 14 of 22 scoring drives have ended with a FG rather than a touchdown. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan turns it over too often in the red zone. Play UNDER Atlanta-Arizona

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER

This is an insanely low total for a College Football game in 2019. Consider that Wyoming is averaging 31 points/game on its own, which would be basically just a touchdown shy of the number. Now we don't expect the Cowboys to score that many against San Diego State. This team is a very misleading 4-1 as they have been outgained in four of five games. Before beating UNLV 53-17 two weeks ago, the Cowboys had trailed by double digits in all four games. The defense gives up over 400 yards and is lucky to be allowing only 20.4 points/game. San Diego State has seen all five of its game stay Under so far and their participation is what has this total so low. Going back to last season, the Aztecs have had their issues scoring. But they should rediscover the end zone multiple times against this Wyoming defense. The Aztecs have scored at least 23 points in all three wins this year and are off nice road win against Colorado State. QB Agnew threw three touchdowns in the 24-10 win.  The Over has hit 8 of the last 11 times these schools have met and not once was the total lower than it is here. By kickoff, there's a strong chance that this total will be the lowest for any NCAAF game played so far this season. Let's be honest here. It won't take much to send the game Over and with the game taking place in San Diego, you know the weather will not be a factor. Play OVER Wyoming-San Diego State

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

Once again, the Pac 12 is not looking very strong. Oregon is probably the best the conference has to offer and they are ranked #13. The Ducks only loss was to Auburn, a game they led virtually the entire time. Since that loss, they've battled back to win four in a row, even though QB Justin Herbert really hasn't been as good as advertised. Last week, the Ducks were held to a season low 17 points in a win over California. That was a good defense they were up against though and Herbert did extend his streak of games with at least one touchdown pass to 33. The Ducks also gained over 400 yards and had double the first downs Cal did. So it was a pretty impressive win. Expect them to find more offensive success this week against a struggling Colorado defense that hasn't seemed to keep anyone in check. Five games have seen the Buffaloes be remarkably consistent, giving up between 30 and 35 points. We project it to be very likely Oregon scores more than 35 in this game. The Ducks defense has also been consistent - consistently good that is. They've allowed a total of 22 points the last four games, giving up no more than 7 to any one opponent. But Colorado can score. They average nearly 35 points/game. All but one of Colorado's games have seen 65 or more total points scored. There's likely to be a lot of Overs involving Colorado moving forward and this should be one of them. The have a QB in Steven Montez who is on pace for 3,500 yards and 30 touchdowns. Play OVER Colorado-Oregon

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

This is an early season showdown in the Sun Belt and we're glad to see it get the national spotlight it deserves. Appalachian State is a team you probably are aware of as the Mountaineers first made their presence felt over a decade ago (then as a FCS team) by upsetting Michigan. It's been a successful transition to FBS and the Sun Belt Conference as they are 35-6 their last 41 league games. They have won or shared the SBC regular season title each of the last four seasons. Already this year, the Mountaineers upset one Power 5 team (North Carolina), part of a 4-0 SU start. But Wednesday is probably their toughest test of the season as they are facing a Louisiana team that has covered the spread in all five of its games so far, beating the oddsmakers expectations by about 70 points. The only loss for the Ragin Cajuns this year was the opener 38-28 to Mississippi State. Since then, they've scored 35 or more in every game, their last three all going Over. Similarly, App State has scored 34 or more in all four of its games and the last three have been Overs. But with a high total and high stakes, we're gonna call for the game Wednesday night to be lower-scoring than expected. Last year, this was a 27-17 game, won by Appalachian State. The Under is 5-1 the last six meetings. The Under is 14-5 the last 19 times App State scored more than 40 points their previous game (beat Coastal Carolina 56-37). The Under is 4-1 the last five times Louisiana has been coming off a bye. Play UNDER Appalachian State-Louisiana

AAA

This is an 8* play on the Over

We know the Chiefs are going to score as they've put up at least 26 points in all games started by Patrick Mahomes. They've gone over 30 in three of four this year. The one exception was a 28-10 win over Oakland where they scored all 28 points in a single quarter. The Colts defense just gave up 31 points in a loss to the Raiders last week, so this hardly seems like an ideal matchup for them. But of course, the Chiefs defense isn't very good either. They've given up 26 points or more to every opponent but the Raiders. Indianapolis should be good for at least 24 points by the end of this game as that's the threshold they've hit in three of four games, a matchup with Tennessee (top five scoring defense) the lone exception. The Over is 6-0 when the Chiefs gained at least 350 total yards in their last game. They gained 438 in last week's wild 34-30 win over the Lions. That game could have featured even more scoring were in not for turnovers by both teams. The Chiefs defense actually ended up giving up more than 450 yards. Three of the Chiefs games this year have seen at least 61 total points scored. This number is high, but the issue is oddsmakers just don't seem willing to open the number higher. Until they do, KC strictly remains an Over team. Play OVER Indianapolis-Kansas City

AAA

*Bonus Pick Chiefs 1st Half

This is a 10* on the OVER

The Patriots could go Over this total themselves. Mark it down. One of the NFL's two 4-0 teams, New England heads to D.C. this weekend to take on the Redskins, who are one of the league's four 0-4 teams. Obviously, this is a gross mismatch. But the pointspread reflects that. What the O/U line doesn't reflect, however, it just how bad the Washington defense is. They gave up over 30 points the last three games, one of them against Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears (who were struggling to move the ball previous to that game) and then 24 more to the Giants last week. It easily could have been more than 24 points allowed last week, but the Giants turned it over four times. You can bet Tom Brady won't be that careless with the ball this week. The Patriots offense will also be eager to atone for last week's subpar effort, which came against a very good Bills defense. They go from facing one of the league's best defenses to one of its worst. Colt McCoy (yikes!) and the Washington offense probably won't do much here, but a single TD or maybe 10 points might be all we need here for an Over. Play OVER New England-Washington

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

UAB will be looking to rebound from a disappointing loss it suffered last week at Western Kentucky. The Blazers were three-point favorites, but went down by a score of 20-13 thanks in no small part to turning the ball over four times. All four turnovers were interceptions thrown by QB Tyler Johnston III. They led to just six points (two field goals) by WKU, but it could have been worse as one came at the end of the first half. It was a big step back for Johnston, who had thrown for over 300 yards each of the previous two games. It was also UAB's 1st Conference USA loss since the meaningless regular season finale against Middle Tennessee last year. Before that, the Blazers had won 11 straight conference games. They are unbeaten at home since the program returned to the field in 2917 (14-0 SU). Rice meanwhile is still searching for its first win of the year as they are 0-5 against what has been a challenging schedule. The Owls have just three wins going back to 2017, but have generally been more competitive in 2019. They took Louisiana Tech to OT last week, for example. But the defense is still giving up a 68.3% completion rate to opposing QB's and 6.3 yards per play. So sfter scoring a season-low 13 points last week, we look for the UAB offense to rebound here. This was a 42-0 game last year. Look for Rice to definitely get on the board Saturday and them doing so should be enough to help this one get Over a low number. The Over has hit each of the last four times the teams have met here in Birmingham. Play OVER Rice-UAB 

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER

Neither team playing Monday night has done much of the way in scoring in 2019 and neither has done any kind of winning. The Bengals and Steelers both come in at 0-3 with the former averaging only 18.0 points/game while the latter is at just 16.3. The Steelers have the obvious excuse of not having Ben Roethlisberger, but they still put up 20 last week in a loss to San Francisco with Mason Rudolph at quarterback. While the Roethlisberger injury definitely altered our outlook on the Steelers season, more concerning in the interim is how poorly the defense has played. They've given up 28.3 points/game so far and could have given up a lot more than 24 last week were it not for the 49ers turning the ball over so much. Three of San Francisco's five turnovers came inside the red zone. So it definitely could have - and should have - been a lot worse for Pittsburgh last week. They allowed 446 total yards to the Niners. On the year, the Steelers are allowing 443 yards/game. The Bengals defense knows what it's like to be shredded by the 49ers as well. They gave up 572 total yards to them in 41-17 loss back in Week 2. On the bright side, Andy Dalton is actually averaging over 300 yards passing per game. The Over is 5-2 the Steelers last seven games on Monday Night Football and 7-2-1 in the Bengals last 10 division games. While the offenses have been struggling, this one could easily turn into a shootout with two struggling defenses that can't stop anybody. Play OVER Cincinnati-Pittsburgh

AAA

This is an 8* play on OVER

The competition has not been fierce, but the Cowboys have looked good so far. They are 3-0 and averaging 32.3 points per game. Kellen Moore is doing a very good job as the new offensive coordinator, QB Dak Prescott is playing as well as anyone in the league right now and RB Ezekiel Elliot hasn't skipped a beat. New Orleans will be the Cowboys toughest opponent yet, but of course the Saints are without Drew Brees. These teams played a Thursday night game last season and the Cowboys won 13-10. Expect this tussle to feature a lot more scoring. It took touchdowns from both the defense and special teams to get New Orleans to 33 points last week as they pulled the upset in Seattle. But now they are playing in the Superdome. We expect Teddy Bridgewater to play well here. The Over is 8-3 in the Saints last 11 September games. It's also cashed in the last five conference games for Dallas. The Saints defense, which isn't as good as it was last year, did just give up over 500 yards to Seattle. The only offenses Dallas has faced are the Giants (with Eli Manning), the Redskins and the Dolphins. So it wouldn't be fair to call them "good" just yet. The Saints always put up points at home. This time Dallas should be able to match them. Play OVER Dallas-New Orleans

AAA

This is an 8* play on the UNDER

We like the Seattle-Arizona game to go Under too. Sure, we talked a good bit about the Seahawks putting up a lot of yards last week and the Cardinals defense being down both of its starting corners. But Seattle can't score enough to send this one over by itself. Their defense played better against the Saints than the final score indicated. We went through this in the analysis on the side. But New Orleans scored two non-offensive touchdowns. Arizona did give up 4 TD passes to Kyle Allen last week, but should play better this week. The offense hasn't scored more than 24 in regulation this year and their total points would look a lot worse if not for the 4th quarter comeback they had vs. the Lions. The Under is 21-9 in Arizona's last 30 home games. It is also 11-5 the last 16 times Seattle gave up 30 or more points in its last game. Play UNDER Seattle-Arizona

AAA

This is a 10* play on OVER Virginia-Notre Dame

After suffering a tough loss to Georgia last Saturday night, Notre Dame should resume scoring in bunches against a Virginia team that comes in ranked a highly questionable 18th overall. The Fighting Irish scored 101 points in their first two games including 66 in the only one played so far in South Bend. They were held to 17 by Georgia, but that's an elite defense they were facing there. Virginia certainly doesn't have a bad defense as they've yet to allow more than 24 points in a 4-0 start. But this number is too low based on what we see for most Notre Dame games. Even against Georgia, the total was 58. Virginia has scored at least 28 points in every game, so it may take a big number from Notre Dame to win this one comfortably, let alone win it at all. The Over is 7-3 in Virginia's last 10 non-conference games. Last week's vs. Old Dominion featured a slow start, but once the Cavaliers offense got going, it wasn't going to be denied. The Over is also 6-1 the last seven times Virginia has played on the road against a team with a winning home record. Notre Dame isn't about to score 66 again this week, like they did two weeks ago vs. New Mexico. But they should score plenty as they look to bounce back from the loss to Georgia. Virginia won't go quietly though. Play OVER Virginia-Notre Dame

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

After two games, the Maryland hype train was in full effect. They'd put up 142 points in a pair of wins, one of them 63-20 over Syracuse. But that hype train then got stuck in the station in a 20-17 road loss to Temple two weeks ago. We'll now get to see how Mike Locksley gets his team to perform off a loss. The Terrapins will face a Penn State squad that had its own impressive first two weeks on offense before playing a game vs. Pitt that they easily could have lost. They only beat the Panthers 17-10 and that came on the heels of a lackluster first half the week prior against Buffalo. The Nittany Lions have destroyed the Terps each of the last two years, outscoring them 104 to 6. No you didn't read that incorrectly. We think the last game for each team showed that neither offense is invincible here. We're not going to be seeing the video game-like numbers from the first two weeks. Both defenses might be underrated as Penn State has given up only 30 total points in three games while Maryland has given up just 40. The Terps last four Friday games have all stayed Under. Play UNDER Penn State-Maryland

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

The Vikings and Raiders have combined to go Under in all four of their games so far. But we anticipate a bit higher scoring affair for them as they meet in Week 3. Minnesota had a very efficient 28 points in a Week 1 win over Atlanta. That was at home and they return to TCF Bank Stadium this week. They should have scored more than 16 last week, but Kirk Cousins threw a BAD interception against the Packers, basically costing his team the game. The Vikings offense actually averaged 7.0 yards per play in that game, but went 0 for 2 in the red zone and turned it over a total of four times. The defense was torched by Aaron Rodgers early, but then kept the team in the game as long as they could. While Minnesota's D didn't allow any points over the last 44 minutes, Oakland failed to score at all in the final three quarters last week vs. Kansas City. That after a 10-point fourth quarter and efficient Week 1 win (over Denver) of their own. Strangely, the Raiders defense allowed four touchdowns in the second quarter vs. the Chiefs, but no points at all in the other three quarters. They still allowed almost 7.0 yards/play though. The Raiders are 4-0 Over their last four games on field turf. Play OVER Oakland-Minnesota

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER

Temple is going to have to guard against a letdown here as last week they upset a heavily hyped Maryland team, 20-17 as 5.5-point home dogs. That game set up pretty well for the Owls as they were off an open date. Now let's see how they perform having to play in consecutive weeks for the first time this season. While Temple has covered both of its games, Buffalo is 0-3 ATS. Two weeks ago, they actually led Penn State at the half, 10-7. Since then, it's been all downhill as they've been outscored 73-20. That includes a bad 35-17 loss at Liberty last week where the Bulls were favored by 5.5 points. We figured UB would struggle early on this year as they lost their starting QB and two receivers from last year. That they have with just 30 total points the last two games. But both were on the road. They actually gained 429 and 373 yards in those two games. So they've moved the ball. Back at home this week, they should start finding the end zone more. Temple's defense turned in a tremendous performance last week vs. Maryland, but that's the side of the ball where the letdown could take place. The Owls offense has averaged 561 yards/game so far. The Over is 10-4-1 in Buffalo's last 15 home games. Last year was a 36-29 win by Buffalo at Temple. Play OVER Temple-Buffalo

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER

The Titans were oh so close to 2-0 last week, but couldn't finish the job against the Colts. They had a late 17-13 lead, but after a missed FG things quickly went awry. The Colts scored the go-ahead touchdown after a 55-yard run, but a missed XP by Adam Vinateri definitely left the door open for Tennessee, who was down only 19-17. But the Titans offense could muster nothing on its final two drives. Still, they're in better position than the 0-2 Jaguars, who went for 2 and the win against Houston (could have kicked XP and gone to OT instead). They obviously failed and it was a 13-12 loss. While it was a low-scoring game for both teams last week, let's go back to Week 1. Tennessee scored 43 while Jacksonville gave up 40. This will likely end up closing as the lowest total on the Week 3 board despite what happened in Week 1. There's definitely value on the Over in our estimation. The Over is 6-2 in the Titans last eight Thursday games and 4-0 when they are off an ATS loss. Jacksonville is 6-2 Over if they allowed 15 or less points in the last game. Play OVER Tennessee-Jacksonville

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER

Houston and Tulane have combined to play six games this year. The Under is 6-0. Houston is 1-2 straight up, thanks to a tough schedule to open the season, which has seen them already face Oklahoma and Washington State. The Cougars only win was against a FCS team and a bad one at that (Prairie View A&M). Tulane lost to Auburn in Week 2, but won its other two games, one of which was against a FCS foe. They also opened the season by beating FIU 42-17. Given that kind of scoring output, we think it's pretty reasonable for the Green Wave to score a lot this week. They also hung 58 on Missouri State last week. Houston not surprisingly is no offensive slouch either as they're averaging over 30 points/game. But a defense that has given up 80 points to its two FBS opponents is a cause for concern. This is a really low total for a game involving Houston. The first three all saw totals in the 70's. That the number has been bet down is a break for us. Play OVER Houston-Tulane

AAA

This is a 10* Play on the UNDER

Last week's game involving the Chargers should have been an Under as they led 24-16 with less than a minute to go. But the defense not only let the Colts drive down for a touchdown, but also gave up a two-point conversion that sent the game into overtime. Fortunately for Chargers fans, Philip Rivers got the ball first in OT and never let the Colts have a chance as LA scored a TD on its first possession. But the Chargers weren't the only team last week to have overtime ruin what looked to be a sure under. Detroit led Arizona 24-6 early in the fourth quarter before Cardinals rookie Kyler Murray awoke and led his team on a wild comeback. The game wound up going to OT, but unlike Chargers-Colts, there was no winner as it ended up a 27-27 tie. This week, the Chargers offense won't have TE Hunter Henry nor will they have him the rest of the season (fractured knee). That'll affect them drastically. They are already without RB Melvin Gordon, who is holding out. Austin Eckler had the game of his life starting in place of Gordon last week, but won't be repeating that performance here. Detroit's offense will probably look to run a lot here after the Chargers defense got gashed on the ground by the Colts. But we're not sure the Lions will have the same success. The Under hit in the last five Lions home games last year. Play UNDER Chargers-Detroit

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

We've seen this total skyrocket due to Baltimore putting up 59 points in Week 1. But such efficiency is highly unlikely two weeks in a row and even if the Ravens are successful again this week (and it's very likely they will be), they won't be scoring as much. With top overall draft pick Kyler Murray making his first career start, the Arizona offense looked pretty bad for three quarters last week. They scored only six points before a furious late rally forced overtime and ultimately earned them a tie with the Lions. Again, it's likely the Cardinals find themselves down entering the 4th quarter here. But the Ravens defense won't be nearly as generous as the Lions were. They gave up just 200 total yards to Miami. In the last 10 years, the Ravens have only lost to a rookie QB one time.  Baltimore won't be scoring 40+ every week, or even most weeks this season. Not all, but a good deal of their offensive performance last week had to do with whom they were facing. Arizona had the worst record in the league last year, but they're better than Miami. This will be a relatively low-scoring affair and best of all is that the number has been bet up several points, presenting us with a value situation. Play UNDER Arizona-Baltimore

AAA

This is a 10* Play on the OVER

For the second year in a row, Cal beat Washington and both times they did it with defense. Last year, it was a 12-10 win without an offensive TD. Last week, it was 20-19 on a last-second FG, a game that was delayed nearly 2 1/2 hours because of weather. This defense, led by one of the better secondaries in the country, is quite clearly pretty good. But this week we feel it will be the offense's turn to show what it can do as it faces a North Texas defense that isn't the least bit good. The Mean Green gave up 52 in the bowl to end last year and lost some key players from that defense. That poor bowl performance looks to have carried over into 2019. The first game, they gave up 31 points and 456 yards to Abilene Christian. It got worse last week in a visit to SMU where they got torched for 49 points and 503 yards. Luckily, UNT does have an offense with a senior QB Mason Fine that can put points on the board. While it's the worst defense Cal has faced yet, it's also the best offense. Fine has guided the offense to 78 points in two games. He's thrown for nearly 8000 yards the last two seasons and is the school's all-time passing leader. This O/U has been bet down several points. While its understandable because of Cal's defensive effort last week, it's too low. Take the OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

Compared to the early game, Denver-Oakland figures to feature little in the way of scoring. You've got two bad offensive teams, one starting Joe Flacco at quarterback and the other trying to pick up the pieces in the wake of the Antonio Brown debacle. The Raiders are a complete joke right now as acquiring Brown cost them draft picks and he didn't he play a game for them. It's a complete distraction heading into the season, which by the way will be their final one in Oakland. This Raiders team has averaged only 18 points/game each of the past two seasons. QB Derek Carr has regressed heavily during that time. Not only do the Raiders not have Brown at their disposal, also gone is TE Jared Cook, who had a career year in 2018. The Denver offense isn't going to be much better this year with the aging Flacco serving merely as a stop gap before someone else takes the reigns (Drew Lock?). Defense is the speciality of new Broncos coach Vic Fangio, so expect them to be stronger on that side of the ball. Their defensive front should overwhelm what is looking like a terrible Oakland offensive line here. The Under went 13-3 in all Denver games a season ago. The Under is also 16-5 the Raiders last 21 games on grass. Play UNDER Denver-Oakland

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Two teams looking to improve start the season against one another, so either Detroit or Arizona will be 1-0 after the first game. That's the good news. The bad news is one of them will be 0-1. For Arizona, there's lots of room to improve after finishing with the league's worst record in 2018. They brought in a new coach (Kliff Kingsbury), who will bring his "Air Raid" offense from the college ranks. It will be run by last year's Heisman Trophy winner, Kyler Murray. But this is going to be a work in progress and you shouldn't expect the Cardinals to put up big point totals early on in the season. They just don't have the offensive personnel as was obvious last year when they were last in the league in scoring at 14.4 points/game. As for the Lions, Matt Stafford is still here and he's (kind of?) got a running game now. But Detroit only averaged 20.3 points/game last year (25th) and stayed Under in each of its last seven games. That's what we look for here. Neither offense has improved enough to have this game go Over. The Lions defense was pretty good last year, ranking in the top 10 in yards given up and top 8 against the pass. The Under is 21-7 in Arizona's last 28 home games. Play UNDER Detroit-Arizona

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Minnesota and Fresno State met last year and it was a 21-14 win for the Golden Gophers at home. Fresno State would lose just one other time the rest of the season, to Boise State, and would later avenge that defeat in the Mt West Champ Game. Now they get a shot at avenging the other loss and this time they get the Gophers at home. We expect it once again to be a low-scoring affair. Minnesota barely gained 300 total yards in an unimpressive win over South Dakota State in the opener. Fresno State scored 23 in its loss to Southern Cal. The only games they scored fewer last season were the two losses and the win over Boise State. Minnesota has one of the better defenses they'll see all year and the Bulldogs have just three starters back on offense. The Under is 19-7 in Fresno's last 26 games overall. It's also now cashed in Minnesota's last five games. This should be a late-night slugfest. Play UNDER Minnesota-Fresno State

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

The Bears had a top flight defense last season, leading the league in interceptions with 27 while allowing a league-low 27 touchdowns. While they do have to replace defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, virtually all the same personnel returns for second year coach Matt Nagy, with one notable exception. That would be Adrian Amos, who will now start at safety for Green Bay! Interestingly enough, Amos' replacement is former Bear Ha-Ha Clinton Dix. The Packers defense should be better this year thanks to eight new starters. The offense is actually a more interesting deal. The numbers last year were not all that impressive even though Aaron Rodgers played a whole season. That was part of the reason Mike McCarthy is gone. New coach Matt LaFleur has installed a new offense and don't be surprised if, as great as he is, it takes Rodgers some time to adjust. The Packers, who don't run the ball that well to begin with, will likely struggle to run in this game. Chicago closed last season on a 5-0 Under run. Green Bay closed on a 7-3 Under run. Both meetings last year ended up with similar point totals, 47 and 41, and we don't think there will be more points scored here. Five of the last seven meetings have seen 47 or less total points scored. Play UNDER Green Bay-Chicago

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Alabama plays Duke Saturday afternoon in Atlanta as part of the Chic Fil-A Classic. We do not expect the game to be close, nor do the oddsmakers, but we're not in the business of laying this many points in a season opener either. With Duke breaking in a new starting QB, they are really going to struggle to score points here. Making matters more challenging is that the Blue Devils lost a starting wide receiver (Jake Bobo) to injury three weeks ago. So expect very few points to be scored on the Duke side against what is still one of the best defenses in College Football. As for the other side, Alabama scored at will (until running into Clemson in the Championship Game) last season, but often called off the dogs late when the game got out of hand. We can see a similar situation arising here, which obviously helps when holding an Under ticket. Also, Duke does have eight of last year's starters on defense back, plus a former All-ACC CB (Mark Gilbert) that missed virtually all of last season.  "I'm more excited about this defense than any defense we've had in the 12 seasons," head coach David Cutcliffe said. That defense won't be enough to keep Duke in this one, but this will be a lower-scoring affair than anticipated. Play UNDER Duke-Alabama

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

It might be unheard of to lay this many points in a season opener against a conference opponent. But if ever there were a time for it, it would be here with #1 Clemson facing Georgia Tech. The Tigers are defending National Champions and will be favored by double digits in every game this season. The Yellow Jackets are going through a transition. They're going from the triple option to a more pro scheme, run by 1st year coach Geoff Collins. Expect growing pains and for Ga Tech to be the worst team in the ACC this year. Clemson beat Ga Tech by 28 last year and that was in Atlanta with Kelly Bryant at quarterback against a team running the triple option. Now its Trevor Lawrence in at QB for Clemson and a Ga Tech offense with pieces fit for a different scheme. The Yellow Jackets simply aren't going to score many points here and with the game in little doubt in the 4th quarter, expect Dabo Swinney to call his dogs (or Tigers as it may be) off. Play UNDER Georgia Tech-Clemson

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Florida had a big jump in wins under Dan Mullen, going from 4 to 10 in his debut year in Gainesville. Mullen had some fortuitous things go his way though, such as inheriting 19 starters from the Jim McElwain regime and a +12 turnover margin. This year's Gators look like they'll be stronger on the defensive side of the ball. The same holds true for the opening week opponent, Miami, who sees Manny Diaz making the jump from defensive coordinator to head coach, replacing the retired Mark Richt. The Hurricanes only gave up 19.5 points/game last year as it is and didn't allow more than 21 in any of Diaz's three years here as the defensive coordinator. Florida enters #8 in the country. Miami is breaking in a new starter at QB with transfer Tate Martell coming over from Ohio State. This isn't an easy first start. Mullen engineered a tremendous offensive turnaround in his first year with the Gators jumping 86 spots in points/game, the second largest jump ever in FBS. Even with QB Franks back, we're not confident they match last year's number (just five offensive starters return). The Under is 7-1 in Miami's last eight neutral site games and 6-0-1 in the last seven games overall. Play UNDER Florida-Miami

AAA

This is 10* play on the UNDER for the Super Bowl.

The expectation for this year's Super Bowl is that two of the league's higher scoring teams won't have much trouble scoring in what will favorable (indoor) conditions at Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta. New England certainly hasn't had much difficulty scoring in the postseason, averaging 39 points in wins over the Chargers and Chiefs. But Los Angeles had a terrible defensive gameplan and the Chiefs defense, at least statistically, is one of the worst in the league. But we should also remember that the Patriots had scored only 17 points through three quarters in KC before a wild fourth quarter took us to overtime. I was fortunate to have the Over in the AFC Championship Game, but will be going the other way in the Super Bowl as the Rams have the best defense NE has seen in some time. Also, while Los Angeles scored 33 or more points nine times in their first 11 games, they have done so just once in the last seven games. Super Bowls traditionally start slow. This one should be no different. This total will close as either the highest or 2nd highest for any SB in history. The previous high, set two years ago when the Patriots played the Falcons, only went Over because of overtime. Play UNDER Patriots-Rams

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER between New England & Kansas City.

The Over on last Sunday's Chargers-Patriots game, my only play on a NFL total for the whole weekend, won easily. As you may have read when buying this selection, was a LOCK by halftime, a WINNER by the third quarter & ended up going Over by THREE touchdowns! New England had 35 points by halftime and then was able to take its foot off the gas. The amount of scoring done by the Patriots does decline greatly on the road. But the good news for this week is that they won't have to score nearly as many points this week for the game to go Over. Not when faced with Kansas City's offense, which ranked 1st in yards per game, per play and points during the regular season. When these teams met in the regular season, it was 43-40, a win for New England. Maybe this game isn't as high scoring. But I don't think they'll combined to score 30 less points, do you? The Over is 6-1 in the Patriots last seven playoff games. Play New England @ Kansas City OVER. 

AAA

This is a 10* play on the Over in Chargers-Patriots

The Chargers scored 23 points on the Ravens in the Wild Card Game, but they certainly didn't come easy. It was five field goals and a touchdown (with a 2-pt conversion). But keep in mind that was the best defense in the league they were facing. I got the distinct impression that had they been facing most other defenses, Philip Rivers and the offense would have scored a lot more points. Los Angeles averages 26.8 points per game and is one of the top teams in yards per play. So what I'm saying is that they should score more this week against the Patriots than they did last week vs. the Ravens. Of course, New England should score plenty as well. Tom Brady and the Pats offense were a lot more effective at home this year, so it's huge getting this game in Foxboro. They were the league's only unbeaten team at home (8-0) and a big reason for that is they averaged 32.9 PPG here. Only the Rams and Saints averaged more points at home this year. While each team has gone Under in its last three games, the Chargers had to play Baltimore twice (and a Denver team that isn't very good on offense) while the Patriots played two bad offensive teams (Jets, Bills) and a road game vs. the Steelers. Play OVER on Chargers-Patriots 

AAA

This is a 10* play on Over Chargers-Ravens

The 12-4 Chargers and the 10-6 Ravens just met two weeks ago with Baltimore holding LA to its worst offensive game of the season. The Bolts finished with just 198 total yards and no play went for more than 17. They scored only 10 points and their one touchdown came on a drive that started on Baltimore 17-yard line after a fumble. The Ravens ended up winning 22-10, sealing the deal with a defensive touchdown. Despite the inferior record, they get to be the home team this team by virtue of winning their division. Look for the sequel to be higher scoring than the original. Yes, Baltimore's defense is most definitely "for real," but the Chargers are one of the few (maybe the only?) team to play better on the road than at home. Philip Rivers posted the second best QBR in the league in road games this year. Also, Baltimore ran for "only" 159 yards in the first meeting. Though the Chargers are the first team that gets to see Lamar Jackson twice, don't expect their defense to have the same success the second time around. That previous rushing yardage total was the lowest for any of Jackson's seven starts and I expect the Ravens offense to be closer to 200, a number they've already cracked five teams with him as the starter. Play the OVER in Chargers-Ravens

AAA

This is a 7* play on the Under in Colts-Texans.

In my writeup on the side of this game, I established that I don't the Colts offense is in for a very successful game Saturday in Houston. The Texans defense is very strong against the run as they allow 3.4 yards per carry, which was the best mark in the NFL. To reiterate, the two times these teams played in the regular season, Indianapolis ran for just 91 yards. That wasn't their average per game, mind you. That was the total number of rush yards in two games (50 + 41). In three of the last five games, the Colts ran for 50 yards or less. Houston allows only 17.0 PPG at home. While I obviously expect them to win this game, look for them to have a somewhat limited day offensively as well. Over the last seven games, the Colts gave up more than 21 points just twice. The Under was 5-2 in those seven games, including the one here in H-town. The Under is also 8-1 the last nine times the Colts have played a team with a winning record. It's 5-1 their last six Wild Card games as well. Houston has seen the Under hit in five of its last seven home games and 13 of its last 18 against AFC teams. Play UNDER on Colts-Texans.

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER in Eastern Washington-North Dakota State.

The FCS Championship Game features a matchup of 12-2 Eastern Washington and 14-0 North Dakota State. The Bison are prohibitive favorites here and for very good reason; they'll be gunning for a record-tying seventh National Championship. Just like Alabama has owned the FBS under Nick Saban, NDSU has owned this level with all six championship wins coming since 2011. I don't think there's much value to be had playing the pointspread, but I do like the total as this should be a high-scoring affair at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, TX. North Dakota State is a machine running the football as South Dakota State found out in the semifinals three weeks ago. The Bison ran for 439 yards in that game and now face a EWU defense that is only so-so against the run and may even have its starting nose tackle. There were only three games this year where the Bison did not score 34 points. They've scored at least 44 four times in the last five games. Meanwhile, Eastern Washington just put up 50 in its semifinal win over Maine. It was the sixth time this year they scored at least 48 points in a game. Will they get that many here? Probably not, but playing catchup, they'll score enough to help get this one past the number. Play the OVER in Eastern Washington-North Dakota State

AAA

This is a 10* play on the Under in Texas-Georgia

#15 Texas (9-4) meets #5 Georgia (11-2) in the Sugar Bowl, one of this year's better bowl matchups. I'm expecting a low-scoring game tonight in NOLA. Without a doubt, Georgia is going to be the best defense that the Longhorns will have faced all year. The Bulldogs allow just 18.2 points per game. Yes, they'll be missing their top corner (declared for NFL Draft) and coordinator Mel Tucker took the head coaching job at Colorado. But it's not like the Horns have the most explosive offense. On the other side, the Texas defense has had to deal with some very high-powered offenses this year in the Big 12. So they won't be intimidated here. The Under is 48-23 in the Longhorns last 71 games overall, including 19-7 the L26 games on field turf. They held Oklahoma below its season scoring average in the Big 12 Championship Game. Georgia has gone Under in 7 of its last 10 bowl games. Play TEXAS-GEORGIA UNDER 

AAA

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the OVER South Carolina/Virginia.

Virginia opened the year 6-2, but it finished 7-5. The Cavaliers can erase the stink of “what could have been” with a big victory today though and we’re fully expecting them to push the pace from start to finish. In their final regular season loss, QB Bryce Perkins had 259 passing yards and three TD’s, along with 112 rushing yards. The Gamecocks are coming off a 7-5 season and they hold on for an easy win over Akron in their finale. Note that the Cavs have seen the total go OVER the number in their last five neutral site games, while the Gamecocks have seen the total go OVER in seven of their last nine when playing with three weeks or more rest on a neutral field. This number is a little high, play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Duke/Temple.

Temple was 8-4 on the year, including 7-1 in AAC play, while Duke went 7-5, and 3-5 in ACC action. The Owls come in on top form having won three straight, outscoring their opposition 143-73 in those games. Overall Temple averages 35.6 PPG and it allows 24.7. Duke will be hungry here to get back into the winners circle after back-to-back “duds” to finish the season, falling 35-6 to Clemson and 59-7 at home to Wake Forest. The defense has been a problem for the Blue Devils, allowing 504 yards and 43 points per game average over its final three games. Note that Duke has seen the total go OVER the number in three of four non-conference games already this year, while Temple has seen the total go OVER in eight of its last ten played on “turf.” This number is low; play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* O/U BLOOD-BATH on the UNDER Broncos/Raiders.

With nothing to play for, not even the role of spoiler, we look for these teams to simply “go through the motions” tonight. Denver Broncos coach Vance Joseph will be reportedly fired at the end of the season, so the entire organization is in upheaval right now. Jon Gruden completely blew up his roster and the Raiders will be in rebuilding mode for a few years. As mentioned off the top, these teams have nothing to play. Note that Denver has seen the total go UNDER the number in 14 of its last 19 on the road, while Oakland has seen the total go UNDER in four of its last five as a home underdog of seven points or less. This number is a little high, play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Texans/Eagles.

From a situational stand point, we think this one sets up great as a higher-scoring shootout. Both teams have struggled at times to put points on the board this season. Each relies heavily on its defensively play. Houston rebounded from a loss to the Colts to beat the Jets 29-22 last weekend. We look for DeShaun Watson and company to carry that momentum over here. Philadelphia enters off a much needed 30-23 road win over the Rams with Nick Foles under center last week. With nothing to lose, Foles and company will be given the green light today to test this tough Texans defense. Note though that Houston has seen the total go OVER the number in six of seven off a road win vs. an opponent, while Philadelphia has seen the total go OVER in 14 of its last 23 after a SU victory. This number is low, play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the UNDER between Louisiana Tech and Hawaii.

Hawaii had a great year, finishing 8-5, while Louisiana Tech was 7-5. Louisiana Tech backed its way into the bowl season with back-to-back losses to Southern Miss and WKU, while Hawaii won its final two games of the year over UNLV and SDSU. The Bulldogs will be leaning heavily on their run game while on offense to keep the Warriors offense off the field of play. The Warriors averaged 32.1 PPG, but Louisiana Tech allowed just 23.8. The longer time off throws a “monkey wrench” into the Warriors offensive chemistry in our opinion. Note as well that LT has seen the total go UNDER the number in four of five already this year as a road underdog, while Hawaii has seen the total go UNDER in four of its last five when playing with two weeks or more of rest. This number is a little high, play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* O/U BLOOD-BATH on the OVER Ravens/Chargers.

This is a big game for both teams. The Ravens come in on top form, having won four of five since rookie QB Lamar Jackson took ver the job. Jackson isn’t asked to do too much, just to protect the ball, throw short crossing routes and use his legs when he gets into trouble. The Ravens rely on a strong run game and their No. 1 ranked defense. The Chargers are 11-3 and they come in having won four straight. Philip Rivers and company will be doing everything they can to get the defensive minded Ravens out of their comfort zone and with the home side pushing the pace at every moment possible while on offense, we’re expecting this total to sneak OVER sooner than later. Note as well that Baltimore has seen the total go OVER the number in its last six as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while LA has seen the total go OVER in three of four already this year off a division game. This number is a little low, play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the OVER between Marshall/USF.

I think the extra time off for USF, which opened the season 7-0, but which finished 0-5, will do it good here. The Bulls will have had time to game-plan and to get a handle on their QB situation (with starter Blake Barnett a question mark still.) Marshall finished 8-4 and is the more complete team on both sides of the ball. We’re expecting a wide open affair between these two hungry teams. Note as well that Marshall has seen the total go OVER the number in its last four when playing with two weeks or more of rest, while USF has seen the total go OVER in five of its last six as an underdog. This number is a little low, play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the UNDER between Ohio and SDSU.

Both teams rely on a strong run game while on offense. The Bobcats’ entire offensive identity revolves around star RB AJ Oullette, who had 1,142 rushing yards and 12 TD’s this season. SDSU is ranked fourth nationally in stopping the run, but Ohio will have little choice here. The Aztecs were hampered by injury this year, but RB Juwan Washington is back to play in this one and he’ll be out to make a statement in our opinion. Note as well that Ohio has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 after two or more SU wins, while SDSU has seen the total go UNDER in three of its last four vs. teams with winning records. This number is a little high, play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* NFC SOUTH TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER between the Saints/Panthers.

New Orleans is 11-2 and it still needs some victories to earn the bye with LA sitting with the identical record. The Saints own the tie-breaker, but clearly Brees and company can ill afford to take the foot off the gas at this point. Carolina opened the season 5-1, but at 6-7, it still is completely in the playoff hunt with three other clubs tied with an identical record. We’re fully expecting these “hungry” sides to open up the playbook and to push the pace from start to finish. Note as well that New Orleans has seen the total go OVER the number in its last three after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games, while Carolina has seen the total go OVER in five of six at home already. Play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER between the Packers/Bears.

Green Bay put on an impressive performance in its 34-20 home win over the Falcons, but consistency on the road has been a big issue for Green Bay. And now the Packers face a revenge minded Bears team (lost 24-23 in the first meeting), which comes off its best defensive performance of the year in its 15-6 home win over the Rams. Green Bay is averaging 24.2 PPG and its allowing 23.6, while Chicago is averaging 27.6 PPG and allowing 19. Note that Green Bay has already seen the total go UNDER in all three games that it’s played in this year as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Chicago has seen the total go UNDER in 13 of its last 22 at home. This number is a little high, play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BOWL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Georgia Southern/EMU.

EMU finished 7-5, but with three straight victories to end the season. Georgia Southern also comes in with a ton of momentum after finishing 9-3 and back-to-back winver over Georgia State and Coastal Carolina. Last week Georgia Southern QB Shai Werts and RB Wesley Fields would combined for 226 rushing yards and two TD’s. EMU’ QB Tyler Wiegers finished with 1,887 passing yards and an 11/3 TD/INT. Note though that EMU has seen the total go OVER the number in three of four already this year after two or more SU wins, while Georgia Southern has seen the total go OVER in seven of its last eight when the total in the contest is set between 42.5 and 49 points. Look for each of the Eagles to open up the playbook and for this one to fly OVER sooner, rather than later.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF THE GAME on the OVER between the Texans/Jets.

The Jets have nothing to play for this season, but the players have everything to play for for next year. The Jets will be trying to build some momentum and something positive for 2019 and they’d love nothing more than to play spoiler to the Texans, who are looking to rebound after their nine-game win streak was snapped last week against division rival Indianapolis. Houston once again has a great defense, but the big difference has been the improved play of QB DeShaun Watson, who has 3,298 yards and 22 TD’s this year. Jets’ rookie QB Sam Darnold returned last week vs. the Bills and New York broke a three-game slide with a 27-23 win. There’s no reason not to think that Darnold and company won’t carry that momentum over here. Note that Houston has seen the total go OVER in three of its last four after a loss by three points or less, while New York has seen the total go OVER in four of five already this season as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. This number is a little low, play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the UNDER between the Chargers/Chiefs.

The Chiefs beat the Chargers in LA 38-28 in Week 1. The first thing that comes to mind when you think about these two teams is “high-scoring, gun-slinging” offenses. And why not? With Patrick Mahomes and Philip Rivers going head-to-head, there’s no doubt why this number has been posted so high. 

However, the short week and the extreme importance of the overall situation as far as playoff standings sets this up as more of a defensive affair in our opinion.

Additionally note that LA has seen the total go UNDER the number in ten of its last 16 vs. the division and in its last two Thursday night games, while KC has seen the total go UNDER the number in 17 of its last 24 at home and in three of its last four after a win by three points or less. This number is a little high, play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER between the Rams/Bears.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense:

As note that LA has seen the total go OVER the number in 11 of its last 16 after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games, while Chicago has seen the total go OVER in three of its last four after an extremely close road loss of three points or less.

The bottom line: Both of these first place teams still need victories to lock down a top playoff spot. All signs point to a higher-scoring affair; play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER between Stanford/Cal.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense:

As note that Stanford has seen the total go UNDER the number in 16 of its last 27 as a favorite, while Cal has seen the total go UNDER in 12 of its last 20 after playing two straight conference games and in four of five already this season after playing a game at home.

The bottom line: The Stanford Axe is at stake. This game was supposed to be played in mid November, but the wildfires in California postponed it till now. Look for the offenses to come out a little flat. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the OVER between Utah/Washington.

This is the Pac 12 Championship Game from Golden State. Utah posted a 35-27 come from behind win over BYU last Saturday, while Washington earned its way to the Championship by posting a 28-15 road win over WSU on Friday. The Huskies won 21-7 over Utah on the road in mid September, but we’re expecting a much more wide open and higher-scoring affair this weekend. Utah averages 30.8 PPG and it allows 19.2, while Washington averages 28 PPG, while allowing just 16.5. Two of the best defensive teams in the nation, but we still think this number is low, as note that Utah has seen the total go OVER the number in five of six already this year in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent, while Washington has seen the total go OVER in five of its last six after a road win of ten points or more. This number is a little low, play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the UNDER between the Saints/Cowboys.

Dallas has been getting the job done over its three game win streak with a strong run game and highly improved defensive play. The last thing the home side can do is try to match pace with Drew Brees and company, who are still looking to lock up the first round bye. But with the home side committed to try and control the pace of this one from start to finish, we do indeed expect a lower-scoring affair. Note as well that the Cowboys have seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of their last nine home games following a three games or more SU unbeaten streak. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF WAR on the UNDER Titans/Texans.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS stats and common sense:

As note that Tennessee has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of eight vs. conference opponents already this season and in three of four vs. teams with winning records, while Houston has seen the total go UNDER in six of its last nine after two or more SU wins and in three of its last four MNF contests.

The bottom line: This is an important divisional contest and we’re expecting a classic, hard-hitting defensive battle. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* play on the UNDER Falcons/Saints.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS stats and common sense:

As note that Atlanta has seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last four “Thursday night” games, while New Orleans has seen the total go UNDER in ten of its last 15 after two or more SU victories. 

The bottom line: The Falcons are desperate for a win, as one more loss will essentially seal their fate. The last thing Atlanta can do is turn this into a shootout and expect to hang with Drew Brees and company. New Orleans has been amazing, but the short week lends itself to a letdown here. This one has UNDER written all over it.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF THE GAME on the UNDER.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS stats and common sense:

As note that KC has seen the total go UNDER in seven of its last nine non-conference road games in which the total is set at 57 or higher, while LA has seen the total go UNDER in nine of its last 13 non-conference home games when the total is 60 or higher.

The bottom line: While many will be expecting a “shootout,” we think these hungry sides will play to much more of a defensive affair on the National Stage. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF THE GAME on the UNDER between the Panthers/Lions.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense:

As note that Carolina has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last 11 vs. teams with losing records, while Detroit has seen the total go UNDER in five of its last seven after two or more consecutive losses.

The bottom line: Carolina comes in off a humbling loss in Pittsburgh, but it’s still in second in the AFC South. The Lions are only averaging 21 PPG and in our opinion, this one has UNDER written all over it.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Texans/Redskins.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense:

As note that Houston has seen the total go OVER the number in nine of its last 15 vs. teams with winning records and in both games that it’s played in following its bye week, while Washington has seen the total go OVER the posted number in eight of 12 vs. teams with winning records and in five of its last eight a home dog of three points or less.

The bottom line: We’re expecting a wide open “shootout.” Play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF WAR on the UNDER between Louisville/Syracuse.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS stats:

As note that Louisville has seen the total go UNDER the number i eight of its last 12 vs. teams with winning records, while Syracuse has seen the total go UNDER in six of its last seven off a win against a conference rival and in all six games that it’s played in of late after two or more consecutive SU wins. This number is a little high, play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF WAR on the UNDER Panthers/Steelers.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS stats and common sense:

As note that Carolina has seen the total go UNDER in six of its last eight off a win against a division rival, while Pittsbugh has seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 13 off a win against a division rival.

The bottom line: Both teams playing at a very high level and each coming off an emotional divisional victory and playing on a “short week.” This one has defensive battle written all over it; play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF WAR on the OVER Titans/Cowboys.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense:

As note that Tennessee has seen the total go OVER the number in 11 of its last 18 against teams with losing records and in seven of its last nine non-conference contests, while Dallas has seen the total go OVER in six of its last nine as a home fav in the 3.5 to seven points range and in its last three following its bye week.

The bottom line: And both teams do indeed come out of the bye weeks. Both sides are desperate for victories and with each opening up the playbook, look for this one to fly OVER sooner, rather than later.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL RED DRAGON on the UNDER Packers/Patriots.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense:

As note that Green Bay has seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last six as a road dog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while New England has seen the total go UNDER in three of four already this year as favorite in the same points range.

The bottom-line: The Pats’ defense looked dominant in last week’s win over the Bills. The Packers’ defense also looked great in defeat to the Rams. This number is a little high, play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Stanford/Washington.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats:

As note that Stanford has seen the total go OVER the posted number in nine of its last 14 against teams with winning records and in seven of its last nine as an underdog, while Washington has seen the total go OVER in three of its last four home games when the total in the contest is set between 42.5 and 49. 

The bottom line: This is an important game for both teams and we’re expecting a war until the end. Look for this one to sneak OVER once it’s all said and done.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF THE GAME on the UNDER between the Raiders/49ers.

The Raiders have completely torn their team apart and their only mission will be to protect QB Derek Carr for the remainder of the season. The 49ers come in on a six game losing streak and struggled to put points on the board against a poor Cardinals defense last weekend. The short week clearly isn’t going to help these struggling sides. Note that Oakland has seen the total go UNDER the number in 14 of its last 23 as an underdog, while San Fran has seen the total go UNDER in five of its last eight off a loss against a division rival. Play on the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BIG TIGER on the UNDER between Ball State and Toledo.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics: 

As note that Ball State has seen the total go UNDER the number in its last three as a road dog in the 14.5 to 21 points range, while Toledo has seen the total go UNDER in nine of 14 off a win against a conference rival.

The bottom line: Both team’s starting QB’s went out with injury last week as well. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* play on the UNDER between the Saints/Vikes.

Two of the top teams in the league collide on Sunday night and while these two clubs normally play to wild, wide-open “shootouts,” we’re expecting more of a conservative affair between these hungry teams on the national stage. The numbers support that as well, as note that the Saints have in fact seen the total UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after two or more consecutive SU wins, while the Vikes have seen the total go UNDER in eight of their last 12 as an underdog. This number is a little high, play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TV TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER between the Dolphins/Texans.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U stats and common sense:

As note that Miami has seen the total go OVER the number in 19 of its last 28 games played on a grass field, while Houston has seen the total go OVER in eight of its last 14 against teams with winning records.

The bottom line: Houston will be looking to deliver the knock out blow here and continue its surge after four straight wins. The Dolphins are down to their final gasp, but Brock Osweiler is going to be given the green light to “air it out” all night long. In the end, we look for this total to soar OVER once the final whistle sounds.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* NCAAF TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER between Ball State and Ohio.

In 2015 Ohio won this matchup 48-31. We expect a similar final combined score here as well. Ball State is 2-2 in league action after a 42-20 setback to EMU last week, while Ohio is now 2-1 in MAC play after its 49-14 win over Bowling Green at home in its latest action. The Cardinals are ranked 67th in the country in points allowed and 97th in scoring with 25 PPG average. The Bobcats are averaging 36.3 PPG and they’re allowing 31. Ball State is going to have its opportunities to move the ball today against an Ohio team which will be happy to push the pace. Interesting to note that Ball State has seen the total go OVER in its last four games it’s played on a “Thursday night,” while Ohio has seen the total go OVER in its last two as a home favorite in the 10.5 to 14 points range. This number is a little low, play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF WAR on the UNDER between the Giants/Falcons.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS stats and common sense: 

As note that New York has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last 11 against teams with losing records and in 17 of its last 24 games played on “turf,” while the Falcons have seen the total go UNDER the number in six of their last ten off a win against a division rival and in their last four against an NFC East division opponent. 

The bottom line: New York obviously can’t get into a “shootout” with Matt Ryan on his home field and expect to win this one. With the visitors putting an added emphasis on their run game while on offense and taking into account the above strong O/U ATS stats, this number is indeed a little high in our opinion. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER between the Bucs/Saints.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on common sense and strong O/U ATS statistics:

As note that Tampa has seen the total go UNDER the number in nine of its last 12 after two or more consecutive losses, while Atlanta has seen the total go UNDER in four of its last six after three or more consecutive SU losses. 

The bottom line: Tampa comes out of its bye week off two wins and desperate for a victory. The Bucs have been atrocious against the pass in the early going, but with a week off to prepare I’m expecting a marked improvement. It’s a huge game for both teams and we believe the pressure, along with all of the above posted situational and trend based factors do indeed point to the UNDER as the savvy call in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER between New Mexico and Colorado State.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics:

As note that New Mexico has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 11 after a conference game, while Colorado State has seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 14 as an underdog (including in all three games it’s been a dog in this season.)

The bottom line: The numbers and overall situation that each finds itself in does indeed point to the UNDER as the correct call in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER on the OVER Air Force/SDSU.

These are two decent defenses going up against two offenses which rely on the run to set up the pass. All of that said though, we’re expecting a higher-scoring shootout between these two normally lower-scoring schools. Air Force is averaging 31.4 PPG and it’s allowing 22. SDSU is averaging 21.6 PPG and it’s allowing 19.8. Note though Air Force has seen the total go OVER the number in ten of its last 13 on the road and in six of its last ten as an underdog, while SDUS has seen the total go OVER in eight of its last 13 off a win against a conference rival and in eight of its last 13 as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range. Play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL RED DRAGON on the UNDER between the Colts/Pats.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics and common sense:

As note that Indianapolis has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last nine after two or more consecutive SU losses and in seven of its last 12 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while New England has seen the total go UNDER the number in ten of its last 13 against teams with losing records.

The bottom line: The Colts can’t afford to turn this one into a “shootout” and expect to hand with Tom Brady. Andrew Luck has been decent this season, but his No. 1 WR Ty Hilton is questionable here and if he does play, he clearly won’t be at 100%. On a short week, look for the visitors to try and control the clock while on offense. The Pats come in off the big win over the Dolphins last week, but consistency from game to game can’t be trusted yet at this point either in our opinion. We’re banking on this one staying UNDER once it’s all said and done.

AAA Sports

This is 10* TOTAL ART OF WAR on the UNDER Chiefs/Broncos.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics and common sense:

As note that KC has seen the total go UNDER the number in 11 of its last 15 after two or more consecutive SU victories and in 18 of its last 28 as the favorite, while Denver has seen the total go UNDER in interestingly seven of its last nine games played in the month of October.

The bottom line: These are two teams which pride have in the past, prided themselves on their tough defensive play. But those days are gone, as each plays at much more up-tempo and frantic pace. But after their flawless start, we think KC finally takes a step back here in this difficult road venue. The Broncos’ defense isn’t what it used to be, but we think it can get in the back field today to throw Patrick Mahomes off his game. This number is a little high, play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* NFC WEST TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER between the Hawks/Cards.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics and common sense:

As note that Seattle has seen the total go OVER the number in six of its last nine against clubs with losing records, while Arizona has seen the total go OVER in four of its last five after two or more consecutive SU losses.

The bottom line: It’s an important divisional battle for these struggling rivals. The situation and the numbers/stats to do indeed point to the OVER as the savvy move on the total in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF WAR on the OVER Steelers/Bucs.

Pittsburgh’s season is on the line. RB Bell is out, meaning that everything falls onto Ben Roethlisberger’s broad shoulders. If the Steelers are ever going to win this games, it’s going to be on Big Ben’s arm. We expect Pittsburgh to open up the playbook through the air today, early often and throughout. Tampa is off to an unreal 2-0 start thanks to incredible play from QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (8:1 TD:INT) and an offense which is “firing on all cylinders.” And that’s bad news for a Steelers’ defense which has looked terrible this season, giving up over 40 points to the Chiefs last week. We’re expecting a high-tempo, high-scoring OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL RED DRAGON on the UNDER between the Jets/Browns.

After a great opener, Sam Darnold and the Jets came back down to Earth in Week 2. The short week on the road isn’t going to help cohesion for this young team either in our opinion. On the offensive side of the ball that is. Defensively the Jets have been strong this year, allowing just 18.5 PPG. The Browns could easily be 2-0, but they’re not, they’re just 0-1-1. Cleveland continues to work through growing pains offensively, the strength being the running game which has posted 135 YPG average in the early going. Defensively the team has been sharp as well though in allowing just 21 PPG. Two young teams on a short week. Something has to give here and we believe it’ll be the offensive units. Look for the defenses to dominate the summaries tomorrow morning. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER between BC and Wake Forest.

Both teams are 2-0, blowing out their weak non-conference opponents. Each team features a balanced offensive attack and both have above-average defensive units. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics. 

As note that BC has seen the total go UNDER the number in its last four as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range and in ten of its last 16 against conference opponents, while Wake Forest has seen the total go UNDER in four of its last six as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range and in nine of its last 14 against the conference. 

The final summary: The situation and the numbers point to the UNDER as the savvy call here. 

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF WAR on the UNDER between the Rams/Raiders.

The last thing the Raiders can do here is get into a “shootout” and expect to win this against the league’s No. 1 offense from a year ago. Oakland traded away star player Kahlil Mack to the Bears for draft picks so the Rams have to be liking their chances tonight, but the Raiders catch a tiny break here in that none of the Rams starters saw any time in the preseason. For our Over/Under selections (in every sport), we are always on the look out for situations like this one to take advantage of. LA’s offense is rusty and the Raiders are going to want to slow this one down at every moment possible as they look to control the clock on offense, so as to limit the time the Rams’ offense is on the field of play. When you add it all up, this number is indeed a little high; play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* O/U MASSACRE on the OVER between VT and FSU.

VT and FSU both finished with winning records in the ACC, but each lost its bowl game last year. The Hokies averaged 28.2 points and allowed only 14.8. Note though that the entire unit that posted those unreal numbers from last season is gone. Duplicating those numbers in 2018/19 will be impossible for VT. The offense looks primed for a big showing though with the return of QB Josh Jackson, who had nearly 3,000 yards passing and 325 rushing last year. FSU averaged 27.8 PPG and it allowed 21.2. The defense returns most of its starters, as does the offense, including Deondre Francois under center. We believe each team takes a step back defensively this year; play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER between New Mexico State and Minnesota.

New Mexico State lost 29-7 in its home opener this past weekend and we think it’ll have issues scoring here as well. Minnesota will look to take advantage as it looks to better it’s 5-7 record from last year. The Aggies just looked plain terrible on both sides of the ball last week. QB Matt Romero was 16 of 27 for 140 yards and a TD, while the run game posted -9 yards. The defense was a bright spot for New Mexico though and the unit should continue to progress with seven returning starters. The Golden Gophers are ranked sixth in the Big Ten. The QB position is in a bit of an upheaval for Minnesota though, as freshman walk-on Zack Annexstad has been named the starter shockingly. He’ll be leaning heavily on RB Rodney Smith all year, as he had 977 rushing yards last season. Overall Minnesota struggled offensively though with an average of just 22.1 PPG. While the offense did indeed struggle, the defense was decent and it will be a strength of a team in 2018/19 as well with several starters returning (note that the Gophers gave up just 22.8 PPG last season). This one has “chess match,” written all over it. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the OVER between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Jacksonville came up big defensively against the inept Bills, limiting them to just 263 total yards, including just 133 passing. The Jags though figure to have a much more difficult time in Pittsburgh, who will look to take Jacksonville out of its comfort zone by pushing the pace early and often. We think the Jags are going to be forced to play from behind today and therefore, they’re going to have to abandon the run and start airing it out. We also expect to see some defensive TD’s produced from both of these talented groups. Note that Jacksonville has seen the total go OVER the number in its last two as a road dog in the seven to ten points range, while Pittsburgh has seen the total go OVER the number in five of eight at home this season. Play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER between the Atlanta Falcons and the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Eagles were among the league leaders in every offensive statistical category this year, but with starting QB Carson Wentz down with injury for the season, not many are giving his back up Nick Foles a chance. But with an extra week off to prepare, we expect the home side to put some points on the board tonight. The Falcons looked great in their Wildcard win over the Rams, capitalizing on mistakes and in the end getting solid production from their offensive veterans. Atlanta was decent defensively this year, but Philadelphia for the most part relied on its offense to carry the load most weeks this season. Philadelphia finds itself an underdog in this game. The Eagles aren’t going to get by the Falcons by “playing it safe.” We look for Philadelphia to come out and push the pace and in a game which we envision being very competitive until the final moments, all signs do indeed point to the OVER as the savvy move.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL RED DRAGON on the OVER between the Carolina Panthers and the New Orleans Saints.

New Orleans beat Carolina twice in the regular season (34-13 and 31-21.) The main thing we took out of those two games is that the Panthers are unable to slow down Drew Brees, Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. Carolina won’t be rolling over, it comes in averaging 22.7 PPG, while allowing 20.4. Cam Newton had a sub-par season (22:16 TD:INT), but he has a big opportunity to avenge the two regular season losses and wipe away doubters/haters with a big performance. We’re expecting the dynamic QB to be at his best today. The Saints average 28 PPG and allow 20.4. Brees had a tremendous year with a 23:8 TD:INT. Note that he was particularly impressive against the Panthers as well this year with 389 yards and a 4:0 TD:INT in two games. Note that Carolina has seen the total go OVER the number in four of seven as an underdog this year and in six of eight against teams with winning records, while New Orleans has seen the total go OVER the number in five of eight at home this season and in six of 11 as a favorite. Play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER between the LA Rams and the Seattle Seahawks.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics and common sense:

As note that the Rams have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last five as a road dog of three points or less and in ten of their last 15 against clubs with winning records, while Seattle has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of eight as a favorite already this year and in all four against divisional opponents.

The bottom line: This is a pivotal game. LA is 9-4 and the Hawks are 8-5. Seattle already beat the Rams 16-10 in LA earlier in the year and we think another tight, lower-scoring defensive battle is in the cards in the rematch in the chilly Northwest. The conditions and the numbers all point to the UNDER as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL RED DRAGON on the OVER between the LA Chargers and the Kansas City Chiefs.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics and common sense: 

As note that LA has seen the total go OVER the number in two of its last three against clubs with winning records, while KC has seen the total go OVER the number in two of three off a division game and in five of its last seven against divisional opponents.

The bottom line: Say what you want about each of these teams, but both “go” how their QB’s “go.” Clearly this is a massive game with big implications for both of these 7-6 divisional foes (No. 1 in the AFC West is on the line.) We’re fully convinced that these veteran QB’s will be the main story line in tomorrow’s summaries. Play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER between the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relative O/U ATS statistics and common sense:

As note that New England has seen the total go UNDER the number in four of six on the road already this year and in both games it’s played in this season off a win against a division rival (23-3 stomping of the Bills), while Miami has seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last four as an underdog of ten points or more.

The bottom line: Miami kept its hopes alive with a 35-9 win over the Broncos. Denver has no real starting QB and its defense is a complete mess though. New England just shut down a much more talented Bills team on the road and we’re fully expecting a similar effort here as well. The Pats are without Rob Gronkowski, which does indeed put added emphasis onto the ground game for New England. When you add it all up, this total is a little high. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER between the Seattle Seahawks and the Jacksonville Jaguars.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics and common sense:

As note that Seattle has seen the total go OVER the number in in all three non-conference games that it’s played in this year, while Jacksonville has seen the total go OVER the number in in both of its non-conference contests this season.

The bottom line: It’s a non-conference game, but it’s an important one for both sides. Jacksonville is tied for the AFC South division lead, while Seattle is also at 8-4 and sitting one game behind the Rams in the NFC West. Plenty to play for between these two teams and we’re expecting each to open up the playbook. This number is just a little low, play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER between the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics and common sense:

As note that New Orleans has seen the total go UNDER the number in its last two times that it’s played on a “Thursday” night, while ATL has seen the total go UNDER in nine of its last 16 as an underdog and in five of six already this season against teams with winning records.

The bottom line: This is a very important game for the Falcons, as a loss would almost assuredly see them fall out of playoff contention in the competitive NFC South. As explosive as Matt Ryan and WR Julio Jones are, the last thing Atlanta can do is turn this one into a “track meet” with Drew Brees and company and expect to come out on the winning side. With the home side looking to “control” the tempo of this one while on offense and when taking into account the short week and above trends, all signs do indeed point to the UNDER as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the UNDER between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cincinnati Bengals. 

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics and common sense:

As note that Pittsburgh has seen the total go UNDER the number in all six of its road games this year and in seven of ten when playing the role of favorite, while Cincinnati has seen the total go UNDER the number in three of four already this year in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent (lost the first one in the season series to the Steelers 29-14 back on October 22nd) and in three of five in front of the home town crowd overall. 

The bottom line: Pittsburgh has been getting the job done all year with its defense. Cincinnati can ill afford to turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to hang with the Steelers down the stretch. The conditions and the numbers all point to the UNDER as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the OVER between Stanford and USC.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics and common sense:

As note that Stanford has seen the total go OVER the number in three of four as an underdog this year and in five of its last six when trying to revenge a loss against an opponent (fell 42-24 to USC earlier in the year), while USC has seen the total go OVER the number in three of four as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range this season and in four of six against teams with winning records.

The bottom line: These teams blew way posted the posted number in the first game in September and all signs point to another high-scoring shootout in our opinion. Stanford is out to avenge the earlier loss and will be pushing the pace from start to finish as it looks to keep up with the high-flying Trojans. When you add it all up, this number is indeed a little low. Play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER between the Washington Redskins and the Dallas Cowboys.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics and common sense: 

As note that Washington has seen the total go OVER the number in 14 of its last 19 on the road (including in three of four this year) and in 13 of its last 17 against clubs with losing records, while Dallas has seen the total go OVER the number in five of its last six home games when the total is set between 42.5 and 45 points range.

The bottom line: This is a very important game for both struggling teams. The Skins are off a less than impressive 20-10 win over the Giants on Thanksgiving, while Dallas has lost three straight with RB Ezekiel Elliot suspended. Desperation breeds motivation. We look for these teams to open up the playbook and for this one to sail OVER once it’s all said and done.

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This is a 10* TOTAL RED DRAGON on the OVER between the Atlanta Falcons and the Seattle Seahawks.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics:

As note that Atlanta has seen the total go OVER the number in interestingly, five of its last six against the NFC Wet and in 17 of its last 30 played on turf, while Seattle has seen the total go OVER the number in nine of its last 14 against clubs with winning records and in its last two at home when favored by three points or less.

The bottom line: It’s a big game for both playoff hopefuls. Neither defense has been particulary dominant of late. We think these offenses will take center stage on Monday as the numbers/trends do indeed point to the OVER as the savvy move in this contest.

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This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER between NC State and Wake Forest.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics and common sense:

As note that NC State has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of six against conference opponents already this year and in three of four as an underdog, while Wake Forest has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of its last when playing against a team with a winning record.

The bottom line: Both teams are bowl eligible. At 7-3, NC State would need to win its next two games, along with Clemson (9-1) dropping its final two, to earn the Atalantic crown of the ACC. The Tigers play the Citadel this week and then against South Carolina to close the campaign, so there’s no way Clemson drops both, let alone either. Wake Forest is 6-4, sitting a game behind the Wolfpack, but after posting their sixth win of the season in last week’s 64-63 win at Syracuse last Saturday, there’s no question that this sets up as a classic letdown spot  for the Demon Deacons. When you add it all up, this number is indeed a little high. Play the UNDER.

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This is a 10* SUPER BLOWOUT on the OVER between Tulsa and South Florida.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics:

As note that Tulsa has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four as a road dog of 21.5 points or more, while USF has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last six following its bye week.

The bottom line: With a week off to prepare and refocus for the final push before a game against league leading UFC next weekend, we look for USF to lay the foot on the gas from start to finish in this one. Tulsa has nothing to play for here, but will also be looking to open up the playbook with the slim shot at playing spoiler. This number is a litte low, play the OVER.

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This is a 10* ULTIMATE TOTAL on the UNDER between Toledo and Bowling Green.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics:

As note that Toledo has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last nine as a road favorite, while Bowling Green has seen the total go UNDER the posted number in three of its last four home games when the total in the contest is set between 63.5 and 70 points.

The bottom line: Bowling Green has nothing to play for. Not even the role of spoiler this weekend for motivation. Toledo on the other hand will be vying for the Conference title in a few weeks and won’t want to leave anythig to chance here. We look for the Rockets to “control” this game while on offense and we look for this total to indeed fall UNDER this sky-high number once it’s all said and done.

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This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the UNDER between Central Michigan and Kent State.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics:

As note that CMU has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of its last eight after two or more consecutive SU wins and in seven of its last 12 off a win against a conference rival, while Kent State has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last 12 after two or more consecutive SU losses and in eight of 14 off a loss against a conference rival. 

The bottom line: Handicapping at this time of the College Football season for us mainly comes down to which side is more motivated than the other. Central Michigan just punched its ticket to bowl eligibility in last week’s 42-30 victory over EMU and is poised for a predictable letdown. Kent State has nothing left to play for either at this point. This number is just a little high, play the UNDER.

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This is a 10* AFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER between the LA Chargers and the Jacksonville Jaguars.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics:

As note that LA has seen the total go OVER the number in six of its last eight as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven poitns range and in four of its last six against the AFC South, while Jacksonville has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last 11 as a favorite and in 11 of its last 17 at home. 

The bottom line: At 3-5, clearly the Chargers have some work to do with eight games remaining. LA comes out of its bye week focused though and with a game at home against Buffalo next week, there’s no question that the Chargers could be back to .500 before you know it. Jacksonville on the other hand has bigger plans on its mind sitting at 5-3 right now. The Jags came out of their bye and easily handled the Bengals 23-7 last weekend, but should figure to have a much more difficult time against this rested Chargers offense. All signs point to the one going OVER as the game comes down the stretch.

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This is a 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER on the UNDER between the Seattle Seahawks and the Arizona Cardinals.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics:

As note that Seattle has seen the total go UNDER the number in six of its last seven as a road favorite in the 3.5 to seven points range and in eight of its last 14 against the division (including in both such circumstances this year), while Arizona has seen the total go UNDER the number in 13 of its last 20 at home (including in two of three this season) and in nine of its last 15 against the division (including in all three this year.)

The bottom line: This is a big game for Seattle, as it comes off a disappointing 17-14 home loss to Washington. With a game at home against Atlanta up next, clearly the Seahawks can not look past their potentially dangerous divisional opponent today. And for the Cards, without Carson Palmer under center, it’s only so far they can go with Drew Stanton leading the charge. Arizona will be leaning heavily on RB Adrian Peterson, who had 150 yards rushing in his team’s win in San Francisco last week. There’s no doubt that this one sets up perfectly for a lower-scoring UNDER.

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This is a 10* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the UNDER between Georgia Southern and Appalachian State.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics:

As note that Georgia Southern has seen the total go UNDER the number in 11 of its last 18 when plaing on six or less days rest and in three of its last four “Thursday night” games, while Appalachian State has seen the total go UNDER in three of its last five following a conference contest and in three of its last four Thursday night contests.

The bottom line: Georgia Southern is 0-8 and we don’t think even has the motivation left to try and play spoiiler. App State on the other hand is running out of time to become bowl eligibile, so will be looking to punch its ticket today with a convincing victory. We’re expecting the home side to control this one whenever possible. This number is indeed a little high, play the UNDER.

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This is a 10* MAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER between Toledo and Ohio.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics:

As note that Toledo has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last ten as a  favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range (including in two of three this season) and in 13 of its last 20 against the conference, while Ohio has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last 12 as an underdog and in 14 of its last 21 against the conference.

The bottom line: The 8-1 Rockets face off against the 7-2 Bobcats. Ohio leads the East and Toledo leads the West. When these teams played last year it was Ohio that scored the 31-26 win at home. With so much on the line today, we’re expecting another battle and a similar final combined score here as well. Play the UNDER.

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This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the OVER between Clemson and NC State.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics:

As note that Clemson has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last 12 as a road favorite and interestingly in four of its last seven games played in the month of November, while NC State has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last six home games when the total in the contest is set between 49.5 and 56 points and in five of its last seven in front of the home town crowd overall.

The bottom line: NC State is 4-0 in the Atlantic division of the ACC, with Clemson right beind at 5-1. North Carolina State is 6-2 overall, while Clemson is 7-1. To say this is a big game would be a pretty big understatement obviously. Clemson has been getting the job done with a nation leading defensive units, but we think NCA State is going to push it out of its comfort zone today. In what we expect to be an all out battle to the end, all signs do indeed point to a higher-scoring shootout. Play the OVER.

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