10* OVER Bengals/Ravens (AFC NORTH TOY)

Neither of these divisional foes has been in many high-scoring games this year, but I say that changes here and now on Sunday night in Baltimore. In fact, the 2-2 Bengals have seen the total go "under" in all four of their games this season, while the 2-2 Ravens have seen the total go "under" two of their four games, including in its 23-20 loss here at home to Buffalo last week. These are two teams in dire need of a win and I expect the sense of urgency that each will be playing with today, to translate into offensive production on the field finally. The Bengals come in with momentum after wins over the Jets and Dolphins. The Ravens are off the heartbreaking loss to Buffalo. This is a great quarterback matchup and I expect Joe Burrow and LaMar Jackson to domiante the headlines in tomorrow's summaries of this contest. I know that we've seen a lot of lower-scoring games in the prime-tiome football spots, but this one screams "shootout" in my opinion; the play is the over!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Lions/Pats (NON-CONF TOY)

These teams I think surprisingly have played to quite a few higher-scoring "overs" to open the season, but I believe everything points to this non-conference matchup being a very defensive affair. Both teams are in dire need of a victory at 1-3. Detroit is averaging 35 PPG, but allowing 35.3. I don't think that the Lions are as good offensively as their early numbers are showing, and I don't think they're nearly as poor defensively either. They've been involved in some wild games to open the season, but I believe they'll have a much more difficult time moving the ball here vs. this talented Patriots defense. And conversely, the Lions' defense catches a break here facing this vanilla New England offense which will likely be without its starting QB again this week due to an ankle injury. Whoever is under cener for the Pats, I'm expecting a lot of running from Damien Harris, who has 246 rushing yards and three TD's for the Pats. Look for this important non-conference matchup to be a very tight, and ulimtately lower-scoring battle; the play is the under!

AAA Sports

10* OVER (NFC WEST TOY)

Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games this year, but I expect this important early divisional matchup to have some offensive fireworks. LA is 2-1 and it's seen the total go "under" in two of three so far, including in last week's 20-12 victory at Arizona. San Francisco is 1-2 and it's seen the total go "under" in all three of its games, including in last week's 11-10 loss to the Broncos (note though that SF has seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row.) The 49ers can't afford another loss here. Especially to the Rams and especially at home. Both teams have struggled to find consistency in the early going, but here's an opportunity to get back on track. Jimmy Garoppolo returned to action in last week's loss and had 211 passing yards, one TD and one INT for the 49ers. I expect him to be given the "green light" here today. Matt Stafford has so far been quiet for his standards for the Rams to open the season. Overall the Rams are averaging 234 yards per game through the air. But I'm expecting a very competitive, wide open battle, and because of that, we can look for this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER FRESNO STATE/USC (NON-CONF TOY)

USC is 2-0 SU/ATS after smoking Rice 66-14 and Stanford by a score of 41-28. With a date at Oregon State next weekend, followed by the heart of the PAC 12 schedule, I am expect this high-powered Trojans offense to go up early, and then to take the foot off the gas in the second half. Fresno State is 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS. It fell 35-32 at home to Oregon State last weekend as a 1-point favorite. USC hasn't won at Stanford in almost a decade, so last weekend's victory was an emotional one. Can anyone say letdown spot here?! This season the average total for USC contests is 63.3 points, 7.7 less than the over/under of this particular contest. The over/under for this game is 10.2 points more than the average over/under in Fresno State games this season (60.8 points) as well. I base my selections on many different things, but taking a "situational approach" when it comes to my totals is one of many different tactics that we employ over the course of the season. This one sets up great from a situational stand point, as we believe this O/U line to be a few points too high; the play is the under!

AAA Sports

10* NFC TOM ON DALLAS/TB OVER

If you like points, Sunday night should be your kind of game. Both these offenses are going to pile up the points this year. Cowboys don't get the love but they will be among the most explosive teams in the league. They are an elite offense with Prescott. Bucs have finished in top 3 in points in 3 consecutive seasons. Over is 7-1 in Bucs last eight games in September. Over is 4-1 in Cowboys last five in September. Go with the Over!

AAA Sports

10* PAC 12 TOY ON USC/STANFORD UNDER

USC flexed its offensive muscles last week. The new coach and QB (Riley and Williams) from Oklahoma lived up to the hype. They will face a different challenge this week. Stanford ran (and passed) the ball very effectively in dismantling Colgate. The balanced offense and quality ground game will help to keep the Trojans on the sidelines. No recent game between these teams has had a total remotely close to being this high. The last four meetings here at Stanford have all finished under the total and so will this one. Defense!

AAA Sports

10* Total Of The Week on FSU/LSU Over

The winner of this game is likely going to score more than 30. The loser may even do so. If not, the losing team should still score more than 20. Seminoles are off a huge offensive display in their opening game. They put up 47 points and could have scored more if needed. The over is 5-0 the past 5x that the Seminoles scored 40 or more points in their previous game. The over is also 8-2 the last 10x that the Tigers played in the month of September. Go with the Over.

AAA Sports

10* ESPN Top Tier on TCU/Col Under

Big number for two unproven offenses. Colorado wasn't good offensively last year. The Buffaloes were shutout once last season and scored three points on another occasion. They scored 13, 20 and 20 in their final three games. They averaged 18.8 ppg and 257.4 ypg. That ranked 121st and 129th, respectively. They couldn't pass or run the ball. Ugly. TCU was better but still not amazing. The Frogs averaged 28.7 ppg, 65th in the country. They scored 17 or less in four of the final six games and 31 or less in all of those. Again, a very big total for two offenses yet to show they'll be better this year. Too big. Seven of last eight Colorado reg. season home games have finished with less than 60. Go Under.

AAA Sports

10* Big Ten T.O.Y. on Penn State / Purdue Under

Four of the Lions' last five games finished with 45 or fewer points. Six of their past seven games stayed below the posted total. The PSU offense will be committed to running the ball a lot. Offensive line with a lot of new faces though so yards won't come easily. Most recent meeting (2019) had a total of 55.5 and finished with 42. Purdue managed just 104 total yards in that game, Penn State recording 10 sacks. History repeats with another defensive battle.

AAA Sports

10* UNDER (ASSASSIN)

This is a very interesting matchup. The first thing that comes to mind when you think of these two teams are their dynamic men under center. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are both coming off big years, but each will need his respective "run game" to be established to find success today. The winner of this contest is going to win the game in the trenches. Ball control is going to be paramount. As will field position. Note as well that Tampa has seen the total go "under" in 7 of its last 8 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which it allowed 40 or more points in. The writing is on the wall. This is going to be a nail-biter, but one that falls well "under" the number!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER (DIV TOY)

San Francisco has advanced to this point behind its relentless defensive attack and impressive run. The last thing that Jimmy Garoppolo can do here is to try and match pace with Aaron Rodgers. San Fran's plan while on offense, will be to hold onto that ball as long as possible, to keep Rodgers off the field of play. If Green Bay is going to finally get over the hump and return to the Super Bowl this season, clearly its defense will have to play a key part. The temperatures are expected to be near 0 and there could be winds of up to 20 mile per hour. Look for this cold weather and the rest of the factors listed above to lead to a solid "under" in this one!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER (WC TOTAL TOY)

If you're wagering on this game, then you know the cast of characters for each side. You know the story lines. Even the most casual NFL fan knows the strengths and weaknesses of each of these teams. If you want an in-depth analysis on offensive and defensive stats for each team and individual player breakdowns, then I'd suggest just going over to ESPN. That's what they do best. Break down games and give out stats. I'm here to tell you why this game is going "under" the number, and not "over." Both Kyler Murray and Matthew Stafford will need their respective run games to be established throughout this contest to have any success themselves. This game is going to be won and lost in the trenches. Field position and ball control will be paramount. Look for this clock to get eaten quickly and for this total to stay well under what I believe to be a sky-high total attached to this one!

AAA Sports

This is a 10* on OVER

So once again, we’re going with the Over in a Bengals game. Last week was a little scary when it was announced Baltimore was being forced to turn to Josh Johnson, a little-known third stringer. But the Ravens’ QB situation ended up being a non-factor as the Bengals exploded for 31 points before halftime and Joe Burrow threw for 525 yards and four touchdowns. Incredibly, the Over was a winner going into halftime with the score 31-14. Now, to expect Cincinnati to repeat last week’s offensive effort seems optimistic. But thankfully, we’ve got Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City on the other sideline. The Chiefs have scored 48, 34 and 36 points the last three weeks and are really humming along with eight straight victories. Their defense has been very impressive during the win streak, holding seven opponents to 17 points or fewer. But outside of the Cowboys and Chargers, the latter of which scored 28 against the Chiefs, none of the offenses faced were as good as Cincinnati’s. The Bengals are 0-2 SU/ATS off their first two 40+ point efforts this season, however, let it be known those two games also both went Over. There were 65 and 63 total points scored. Six of the Bengals’ last nine games have gone Over. Only one of those last nine games, a 32-13 win over Las Vegas, had fewer than 49 total points scored. The Over is 5-0 the last five times the Bengals have been off an ATS win. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

Ohio State has had some opt outs, including receiver Chris Olave, but the nation’s #1 scoring offense (45.5 points/game) should still put plenty of points on the board in this year’s Rose Bowl. The Buckeyes were also the nation’s leading team in total offense at 551.4 yards/game. They still have QB C.J. Stroud to throw the ball to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who is the most talented receiver in the program. But there are now big questions about this Buckeyes’ defense after it got run over by Michigan in a loss that cost them a spot in the Big 10 Championship Game. It was the third time that the Buckeyes allowed 200+ yards rushing in a game this year. One of the previous two was in a home loss to Oregon, a team Utah crushed twice. The Utes are going to run the ball effectively on New Year’s Day; they are averaging 216 yards rushing per game and 5.6 yards/carry. There were only three games that Utah failed to score at least 30 points. During their current six game win streak, they have averaged nearly 40 points/game. Return man Britain Covey had two punt returns for touchdowns and should consistently give his team good starting field position. Before their last three games all stayed Under, Utah was on an 11-2 Over run. Play on OVER

This is a 10* on the OVER

We all think we know who is going to win this CFP semifinal. Since 1978, there has been exactly one previous instance of a team entering its bowl as an underdog of 13.5 or more points despite being 10-0 or better. Cincinnati is now the second. They take on #1 Alabama, who just made an emphatic statement in the SEC Championship Game by scoring 41 points on Georgia’s top-ranked defense. The Crimson Tide average 42.5 points/game for the season. We don’t see them having any difficulty scoring on Cincinnati. But the thing is, this Alabama defense is not as good as it’s been in recent years. They allowed 23.0 points/game away from home. That may not sound bad, but most Nick Saban defenses give up fewer than 20 points/game. The last three games saw Bama give up an average of 27 points. Cincinnati can put points on the board. They average 39.2 per game. They scored 35 in all but four games. Is this an obvious step up in class for them? Of course it is. But the Bearcats will score enough to help send this one Over. The Over has hit in 23 of Alabama’s last 36 neutral site games and that includes three pushes. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

Both Oklahoma and Oregon have lost their head coaches to other schools and key defensive personnel will be sitting out the Alamo Bowl. So don’t go expecting a ton of defense to be played in this game. Oklahoma will be coached by Bob Stoops on Wednesday night as former protege Lincoln Riley is off to USC while Brent Venables, the former Clemson defensive coordinator and Riley’s permanent replacement, watches on. Oregon’s interim head coach will be Bryan McClendon as they lost Mario Cristobal to Miami FL (his alma mater) and Dan Lanning (Cristobal’s successor) is still coaching the defense at Georgia. Oklahoma will be minus four starters on defense, their top tackler and three sack leaders. That seems significant. Oregon is going to be without its best defensive player, Kayvon Thibodeaux, who could be the #1 pick in the next NFL Draft. The two offenses are in much better shape heading into this game and both averaged more than 30 points/game this year. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

UPDATE: When we made this play, we obviously did not expect Johnson to be the QB for the Ravens. But this is an opportunity of a lifetime for the veteran. He's gotten games in this year and has a great offense around him. Call us crazy but you should still expect Baltimore to put points on the board... 

The Ravens may have failed to convert a potential game-winning two-point try last week. But they definitely didn’t have any issue putting up points. This despite backup Tyler Huntley playing quarterback. Huntley had 215 yards passing and 73 yards rushing in the 31-30 loss against the Packers. So we’re pretty confident that Baltimore is going to score plenty of points on Sunday, no matter if it’s Huntley or Lamar Jackson at QB. Jackson had never missed a game before last week. This is a huge game in the AFC North vs. Cincinnati. The Bengals beat the Ravens 41-17 earlier in the year. The teams enter this rematch tied at 8-6. Cincy won last week in Denver, 15-10. Had they lost, both they and the Ravens would be on a three-game skid. The Bengals average 26.4 points/game, so they should not have problems scoring. We know that they did have problems against the Broncos. However, last week marked only the third game in 2021 that Cincy failed to score at least 22 points. Defensively, the Bengals have allowed 41 points twice in the last four home games. Those last four home games have all seen at least 49 total points scored. Bengals’ home games average 51.9 points/game. Huntley proved himself to us last week, so we’re satisfied no matter if it’s him or Jackson starting this week. The Over is 5-1 the previous six times Baltimore has been off a straight-up loss. The Over has cashed the last four times Cincinnati has been off a win. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

Indianapolis is going to be playing without three of its five starting offensive linemen on Christmas. But considering that they scored 27 points last week with Carson Wentz completing only five passes for 57 yards, we believe the Colts can still score a reasonable number of points in this game. Arizona has given up 30 points in each of its last two games. The Colts come in putting an average of 28 points/game on the board. Though Wentz struggled in the last game (still beat the Patriots) and the offensive line is banged up, handing the ball to RB Jonathan Taylor seems easy enough. Taylor leads the league - by a wide margin - with over 1500 yards rushing. He had 170 last week. Stopping the Cardinals’ offense may prove to be difficult for the Colts, however. Despite playing without WR Hopkins, Kyler Murray still threw for 257 yards last week in what ended up being an embarrassing loss to Detroit. The Indianapolis’ defense is not particularly great against the run or pass, so the Cardinals offense should have success. Each of the last five times the Colts have been underdogs, the game has gone Over. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER 

Tuesday’s Frisco Bowl features two teams that are a combined 23-3 this year. Both appeared in their respective Conference Championship Games. UTSA is 12-1 and won the Conference USA Title Game, beating Western Kentucky by a score of 49-41. San Diego State is 11-2, but lost the Mountain West Title Game, 46-13 to Utah State. The Aztecs usually play better defense than they showed in that last game, but missing several players because of COVID-19 proved too difficult to overcome. Stopping the UTSA offense will also be challenging. The Roadrunners put up 37.8 points/game. While they won’t have RB McCormick and San Diego State is likely the best defense they’ve faced in 2021, look for UTSA to still put up a solid number of points in this game. To this point, we’ve seen little defense played in these early bowls (typical) and the Over is 7-1 entering Monday. The Conference USA Title Game marked the fifth time since the beginning of October that UTSA scored 44 or more points in a game. The San Diego State offense may not pack the same sort of punch, but going against a UTSA defense that will be down a couple of starters is a nice break. UTSA allows 5.6 yards per play and it’s last three opponents averaged 39 points. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 8* on OVER

The Cowboys and Giants renew acquaintances in Week 15. The Cowboys lead the NFC East by three games with a 9-4 record. After taking a 24-0 lead into halftime last week vs. Washington, things did get a bit too close for comfort when the Football Team stormed back to get within seven. But Dallas did win the game, 27-20. Another win here would move Dallas very close to wrapping up a division title. In recent years, the Giants have been rather accommodating. Including a 44-20 win on Oct 10, the Cowboys have taken eight of the last nine meetings from the Giants. The incarnation of the G-men that they will face on Sunday has Mike Glennon playing QB. The Giants lost 37-21 last week to the Chargers to fall to 4-9. Despite Glennon playing QB for the Giants and the Cowboys’ being banged up at running back, we like this game to go Over, just as the last meeting did. Dallas is second in the league in scoring at 29.2 points/game. We had the Over in last week’s game vs. Washington and were denied a win by a missed extra point. We look for this game to make it Over, as similar to last week, the Cowboys should race out to a big lead and then start playing lax defense. The Over is 17-8 in the previous 25 Cowboys-Giants matchups, including 4-1 the previous five. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

Northern Illinois was perhaps as lucky as lucky can be in 2021. The Huskies won seven games by eight (points) or less, four of those wins coming by a total of five points including THREE one-point victories. People who measure this sort of stuff deemed NIU the luckiest team in all of College Football this year. The Huskies’ opponent in the Cure Bowl is 10-2 Coastal Carolina, a team that had an unbeaten regular season last year. A 23-3 SU record over a two-year span deserves to be marveled at and it’s why the Chanticleers are such heavy favorites on Friday. But what we like in the Cure Bowl is the Over. Coastal is averaging over 40 points and almost 500 yards per game, so they are surely capable of doing the “heavy lifting” in this one as far as points are concerned. Especially going against a NIU defense that surrenders 448.3 yards/game. But let’s not discount what the Northern Illinois offense is capable of doing. They’ve scored 30 or more in five of their last six games, including 41 in the MAC Championship vs. Kent State. More often than not, very little defense is played in these “early” bowl games. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Washington has gotten back into the NFC East race by winning four straight games. They are also 4-0 ATS during that time as they’ve been the underdog in all four wins. So this is quite the run that the Football Team is on right now. On Sunday, they can further narrow the division lead as first place Dallas comes to town. The Cowboys, coming off back to back Thursday games, are 8-4 and still have a two-game lead over Washington. Last week saw Dallas go to New Orleans and win 27-17 as a 6.5 point favorite. That came on the heels of a shocking overtime loss on Thanksgiving to the Raiders. The final score of that Thanksgiving Day loss was 36-33. We expect this one to be high scoring as well. The Cowboys offense is finally healthy. Pay close attention to the status of RB Pollard, who missed practice on Wednesday, but even if he can’t go the team still has Ezekiel Elliott to hand the ball off to. Washington’s last two games both ended up as 17-15 finals, but they moved the ball more than you might think. The Over has hit 9 of the previous 11 times these teams have met. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

Flexed into the Sunday night position, the Chiefs host the Broncos this week. Kansas City is coming off a bye. Coach Andy Reid is usually deadly in this situation, going 14-8 ATS, but that includes 1-3 the last four years. The Chiefs were playing well going into the bye, winning four straight with the defense surprisingly leading the way by allowing just 11.75 points/game. They are facing a Denver team that has seen the Under hit in 9 of 11 games this year. The O/U has come down for this game, but we’re going with the Over as KC scored 41 in its last appearance on “Sunday Night Football.” Denver put up 28 last week in a surprising win over the Chargers. That win puts the Broncos one game behind the Chiefs in the AFC West and tied with the Chargers and Raiders. It was the second time in three weeks that Denver scored 28 or more. While it looks like most are expecting a relatively low-scoring affair, we’re going the other way. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 9* on the UNDER

The 49ers have not only won three straight, but also four of five SU and ATS. In Week 12, they held off the Vikings for a 34-26 win and covered the four-point spot. This run has gotten the Niners back into playoff contention as they are now 6-5 on the season. The Seahawks are headed in the opposite direction. Monday’s 17-15 loss in Washington was Seattle’s third straight setback, leaving them at 3-8 overall. The Under has hit in five straight Seahawks’ games and we think it will be six straight after this NFC West clash. Since Russell Wilson returned, the Seattle offense has scored a total of 26 points in three losses. They had only 10 first downs and five straight three-and-outs on MNF.  But the defense hasn’t been all that bad, giving up an average of only 15.4 points during the five-game Under run. San Francisco has scored 30 or more in three straight games, but the Seahawks haven’t allowed that many since Week 3. The Under is 6-0 in Seattle’s last six conference games and 13-2 in Wilson’s previous 15 starts. When these teams played in Week 4, it was a 28-13 game (Seattle’s favor) until a late TD + 2 pt conversion from the Niners. This game should see SF control the clock by running the ball, leading to fewer possessions (for both teams). The Niners will be without WR Samuel. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

Two teams in the AFC playoff hunt will meet in Cincinnati this Sunday as the Bengals host the Chargers. Cincy is now 7-4 after blowing out Pittsburgh 41-10 last week. That was right here at home and came on the heels of a 32-13 road win in Vegas. So the Bengals definitely seem to be humming again after head-scratching losses to the Jets and Browns. The Bengals’ last five games have averaged a total of 55.2 points with all but one clearing 50. So that’s why we’ve got a high total here. Another reason is what the Chargers are capable of doing offensively. Two weeks ago, they put over 500 yards of offense in a 41-37 win over the Steelers. Things weren’t as good last week when the Lightning Bolts lost 28-13 at Denver. But that was only the third game all season that LA did not score 20 or more points. In fact, since Week 3, the Chargers have scored 24 or more points in all but two games. Look for Justin Herbert to have a bounce back game on Sunday and the Bengals will put up their usual number of points as well. The Chargers’ defense, which is second worst in the league at stopping the run, has given up an average of 31.3 points the seven games (2nd most in the league during that span) with all seven opponents scoring at least 24. Cincinnati is averaging the second most points in the league (31.3/game) since Week 6. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

The first Conference Championship Game of Week 14 goes down in Conference USA where UTSA will host Western Kentucky. UTSA just had its unbeaten season ruined last week by North Texas in a 45-23 loss. But the Roadrunners’ spot in this game was already secure and a Conference USA title would be a big deal for this relatively “unknown” program. They’ll face a Western Kentucky that is on runs of 7-0 straight up and 6-1 against the spread. The Hilltoppers have covered the spread in their last five games. But they did lose 52-46 as three-point home favorites to UTSA back on October 9th. We are anticipating another shootout this Friday night. The fact that the teams already combined for 98 points and 1234 yards of total offense is a nice start. Consider that in the first meeting these teams combined for eight TD drives of 75 or more yards and none went longer than 5:08. WKU averages 43.3 points/game. They’ve scored 52 and 53 points the last two weeks. UTSA averages 36.9 points/game. Them giving up 45 last week doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence in the defense. The Over is 11-4 in the Hilltoppers’ previous 15 games. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

Dallas was tremendous over the first two months of the season, going 6-1 straight up and 7-0 against the spread. But they definitely gave some back in November, going 1-3 SU and ATS. The Cowboys were losers on Thanksgiving Day, falling 36-33 in overtime to the Raiders. Now they’’ turn around and face another Thanksgiving Day loser, the Saints, in another Thursday game. New Orleans got blasted by Buffalo 31-6 as a seven-point home underdog last week. It was their fourth consecutive loss. Before this current losing streak, you would have had to go all the way back to 2016 to find the last time any Saints team lost three in a row. With both teams struggling, we’re not interested in playing either side here. Instead, the Over looks to be where the value is at. The Dallas defense gave up over 500 yards last week, including 366 through the air. Per sources, New Orleans is making a change at QB to Taysom Hill. We like the move. But what Hill can’t fix is a Saints defense that’s allowed 71 points the last two games and an average of 29.6 its last five. The Cowboys offense is likely to see WR CeeDee Lamb return. The impact of not having coach Mike McCarthy on the sidelines should be minimal for the road team. McCarthy is generally regarded as a bottom tier coach. The Over has hit in the Cowboys' last four Thursday games. Play on OVER

This is a 9* on OVER

The Chargers scored 41 points and gained over 500 yards last week. It came down to the final minute, as all Chargers’ games seem to do, but they were a 41-37 winner over Pittsburgh. This just in: QB Justin Herbert is very good. Denver’s defense isn’t as good as you think, which was evident two weeks ago when they gave up 30 points to the Eagles. Meanwhile, look for the Broncos’ offense to move the ball via the running game. The Chargers are last in the league at stopping the run. Denver has two good backs - Melvin Gordon III and Javonte Williams - who have combined for 4.7 yards per rush and 1,333 scrimmage yards. Each of the Chargers’ last six opponents have scored at least 24 points. Look for this to turn into a pretty high-scoring affair. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 9* on OVER

Hawaii goes for its sixth win Saturday when it pays a visit to the mainland to take on 6-5 Wyoming. These are two teams that put over more than 40 points last week. Hawaii won a wild, 50-45 shootout over Colorado State out in Honolulu. Wyoming went to Utah State and won 44-17. The home team should not have much trouble scoring points in this game. Hawaii is giving up 37 points/game on the road. Wyoming ran for 362 yards last week. Whether it’s on the ground or through the air, moving the ball won’t be an issue. Hawaii’s defense gave up 651 yards to Colorado State.The Over has hit in three of Wyoming’s previous four games. This is a low total for Hawaii, who has had several games with an O/U line of more than 60 points.Their games have averaged 60.8 points this season. The offense had 535 yards last week. The number is just too low here. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Both the Raiders and Cowboys are reeling coming into Thanksgiving Day. The Raiders lost their third straight game on Sunday and are now just 5-5 SU. They’ve scored just 43 points during this losing skid. The last two losses have been blowouts: 41-14 to the Chiefs and 32-13 in Cincinnati. Both of those were home games. The Raiders now leave Sin City to take on a Dallas team that put up a season-low nine points against the Chiefs on Sunday. However, the Cowboys are in a lot better shape than the Raiders are. Dallas still leads the NFC East with a 7-3 record. Considering they average the third most points/game in the NFL (29.3), we’re willing to “write off” what happened in the last game. The last time the Cowboys played at home, they put up 43 points. That was the third time this year they scored 40 or more at home. The Raiders’ defense isn’t good, so we’re expecting another strong effort from Dak Prescott and the Dallas offense. But look for Derek Carr and Las Vegas to put up some points as well. They substantially outgained the Bengals offense on a per play basis. Not only is the Over 11-4-1 in the Raiders’ last 16 games as an underdog, but it is 7-2 the last nine times following a straight-up loss. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on UNDER

So we do not yet know who will be playing QB for the Lions on Thanksgiving Day. Does that matter though? The team has yet to win a game and will be going with either Jared Goff or Tim Boyle. Boyle made his first NFL start last week in a 13-10 loss to the Browns. He threw for 77 yards and had two interceptions. Goff’s last eight starts haven’t been much better. One would have to go back to Week 1 to find the last time that the Lions scored more than 19 points. They are 30th in the league in scoring.  Right ahead of them, in 29th, is this year’s Thanksgiving Day opponent. Chicago averages just 16.3 points/game. They will reportedly be starting Andy Dalton at QB. Dalton replaced an injured Justin Fields on Sunday and the Bears wound up with only 13 points and lost to the Ravens. It was the seventh game this year that the Bears scored 20 points or less. There are rumors that head coach Matt Nagy might be fired after this game. That’s inspiring! So let’s summarize. Chicago is starting Andy Dalton with a potentially lame-duck head coach. They are facing a winless team starting either Jared Goff or Tim Boyle. We will take the Under.  Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

The Bucs are thankful to be back home Monday night after losing two in a row on the road. The two losses saw them give up 36 points to the Saints and 29 points to the Washington Football Team. But defense shouldn’t be much of a concern tonight as Brady and the offense are averaging a jaw-dropping 40.0 points/game at home. The last time they played in Tampa, the Bucs scored 35 points in the first half. So we’ll play the Over tonight as the Super Bowl Champs host the 3-6 Giants. New York is off a 23-16 win over Las Vegas and then last week had a bye. So there’s been plenty of time to get the offense ready to put enough points on the board to help send this one Over the total. Giants’ road games have been pretty high scoring this year, averaging 52.1 points/game. They both score and allow more on the road than they do at home. The Over has hit each of the last six times these teams have played. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 9* on UNDER

Expect the Jets and Dolphins to play a low-scoring affair on Sunday. The Jets are 26th in the league in scoring at 17.9 points/game. They are starting Joe Flacco at quarterback this week. That sounds dire. If you can believe it, the Dolphins actually rank lower in scoring than the Jets. They are scoring just 17.7 points per game. That ranks 28th. So we’ve got two of the bottom seven scoring offenses here. The reason the last six Jets games have all gone Over the total is because their defense is horrible, giving up a league-worst 32.9 points/game. When they face teams like Buffalo, Indianapolis, Cincinnati or New England (their last four opponents), that’s obviously a problem. Miami is unlikely to take advantage of this porous defense though. The Dolphins have scored only 50 points - total - the last three weeks. All three games went Under. On the bright side, the Miami defense has allowed just 19 points in the last two games, including a really impressive effort last Thursday vs. Baltimore. Play on UNDER

This is an 8* on OVER

Buffalo is #2 in the league in scoring, averaging 31.1 points/game. They put 45 on the board last week against the worst defensive team in the league, the Jets. They won’t need nearly that much here vs. Indianapolis for the game to go Over the total. That’s because the Colts are top eight in points scored at 26.8 per game. We’re really surprised that this number isn’t higher. Indy had scored 30 or more in four straight games going into last week’s 23-17 win against Jacksonville. Given how these two offenses have consistently put up points, how can you NOT go Over? The Over is 10-1 in the Colts' last 11 games vs. teams that have winning records. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 9* on UNDER

After a disappointing start to their 2021 season, East Carolina has played much better down the stretch. The Pirates have won their last three games on the field and covered their last six at the betting window. That ATS win streak is one of the longest active streaks in the nation right now and ECU puts it on the line this week when they invade Navy. The Midshipmen are NOT having a good year. They are just 2-7 straight up and those two wins were by a combined seven points over UCF and Tulsa. The Navy simply seems to have lost its “firepower” as a 34-6 loss to Notre Dame two weeks ago was the third game this year with seven or fewer points. They’ve scored more than 20 just two times and rank last in the American Conference in both scoring and yards gained. East Carolina’s game last week with Memphis went to overtime, so the 30-29 final is a little misleading. We think the Pirates won’t have much trouble shutting down Navy’s sputtering triple option, but with how much the Midshipmen run the ball, the clock will be running most of the way. That means unless ECU gets a lot of explosive plays, this will probably be a pretty low scoring game. Look for ECU to be limited on the explosive plays and for the Under to hit for the sixth straight time for Navy. The Under has also hit the last four times ECU has been favored. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Look for Houston and Memphis to trade points Friday night on ESPN2. The Cougars come in averaging 38.9 points/game. They’ve scored 40 or more in four of the last six games. The defense had a strong effort last week, holding Temple to just 8 points. But that is out of the ordinary for Dana Holgorsen’s team, which gave up 37 to SMU and 42 to South Florida the two games prior. Memphis is also no slouch in the scoring department as it averages 31.5 points/game. The Tigers’ offense has averaged 451.4 yards/game for the season, which is more than what Memphis averages. But, like Houston, Memphis has its problems defensively. They give up 35.8 points/game on the road. The last six times these teams have played, there has been at least 57 total points scored. Five times there has been 69 or more total points scored. The Over is 10-4 the last 14 times Memphis has been a road underdog. The Over is 6-2 the last eight times Houston has been off a win that was by 20 or more points. This feels like a game where both teams will score 30+ points. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

There’s been no shortage of points in these weekday MAC games. So when Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan hook up on Tuesday, don’t be surprised to see another shootout. Western Michigan comes into tonight off a 45-40 win over Akron last week. The Broncos are averaging 33.0 points/game in conference play, but at the same time the defense is giving up 34.8 points/game. They’ve allowed 40 or more in two straight games and three of the last five. Eastern Michigan had scored 50+ in back to back games before getting upset by Ohio last Tuesday. It will be a challenge for the Eagles defense to slow down a WMU offense that went for 533 yards seven days ago. Fortunately for the home team, it has averaged 465.7 yards over the last three games. It’s difficult for us to see either defense getting many stops in this one. Eastern Michigan is 4-1 Over L5 Tuesday games. Western Michigan is 7-1 Over L8 Tuesday games and 17-4 Over L21 November games. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

The big story for tonight is that Odell Beckham will be making his Rams’ debut. Beckham arrives in LA at an opportune time - the Rams lost last week to the Titans, 28-16, and then WR Robert Woods went down in practice with a season-ending knee injury. But Beckham may not be the only high-profile debut for the Rams here. On the defensive side, Von Miller could suit up for the first time since the Rams traded for him. Whether or not the former Bronco plays is dependent on the ankle injury that kept him out last week. The Rams are 4-0 on the road this season while the 49ers are 0-4 at home. But the 49ers have won all four meetings the previous two seasons, three of them as underdogs. We like the total tonight. The Rams being held to only 16 points last week (and that was with a late TD) was odd. They are among the highest scoring teams in the NFL at 29.0 points/game. On the road, the scoring average jumps to 32.3 points/game. Stafford is the only QB in the league to have nine games with 250+ yards passing. Since returning, the Niners’ Jimmy Garoppolo has thrown for 300+ yards in back to back games. With just one win in the last six games, the home team will be desperate here and knows it’s going to take a lot of points to win. The last three 49ers’ games have gone Over the total as either they have scored or allowed 30 points in all of them. San Francisco’s defense is allowing almost 30 PPG at home. Both offenses should bounce back from subpar performances last week. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

The Browns got a huge win last week, beating Cincinnati by the score of 41-16. They did get a 99-yard INT return for a touchdown early in the game, which was a big swing. The offense for this team has been really “feast or famine” this season. Three times the Browns have topped 40 points. They also have four games where they scored 17 or less. Three of those came in the three weeks preceding the win over the Bengals. But another interesting thing about Cleveland is that the defense has had three games this year where it allowed 37 or more points. But it also has put together five games where it allowed no more than 16 points. The last three weeks have seen the Browns allow an average of 15 points/game. So which Browns offense - and Browns defense - will show up this week in New England? Well, we don’t like the prospects for the offense. Nick Chubb (COVID) may not be able to play. The Patriots allow only 18.6 points/game at home and last week held the Panthers to six points in Carolina. But the good news for Browns fans is that we’re not sold on rookie QB Mac Jones and the New England offense. Yes, Jones and company have put up some nice numbers in recent weeks. But they did so at the expense of some bad defenses. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

The last five Boston College games have all resulted in a win for Under bettors. The average number of total points scored in those five games is just 32.2! Last week was the lowest scoring game of the Eagles’ season, a 17-3 Friday night win over Virginia Tech. We realize that it’s been a struggle for them to score recently. But QB Phil Jurkovec has returned to the starting lineup and that should provide a spark offensively. BC faces Georgia Tech this week. The Yellow Jackets surrender an average of 31.7 points/game in ACC play and five of their last six have seen a minimum of 58 total points scored. So this has all the makings of the end to BC’s five game Under streak. While GT has lost three in a row, they scored 30 or more in two of the losses. They’ve also scored 30 or more in four of the last six games. When these schools played last year, the final score was 48-27 (BC won). Play on OVER

This is an 8* on OVER

Dallas took a chance in resting Dak Prescott last week. It worked out. They went to Minnesota and beat the Vikings 20-16 thanks to a last second TD pass from backup quarterback Cooper Rush. Prescott will play this week against Denver, That means the Cowboys won’t have any problems putting up points against a Denver defense that just had to say goodbye to Von Miller. Dallas is #1 in the league in yards from scrimmage with 454.9 per game. The last eight home games with Prescott as the starter, the Cowboys have scored 35 or more points. Count on them doing most of the scoring here. But Denver will add enough points to ensure we hit this Over. The Cowboys defense is 28th in passing yards allowed, so the Broncos will be able to move the ball if/when they are behind. Play on OVER

This is an 8* on UNDER

This is the only top 25 matchup on Saturday. The spot isn’t great for Auburn as the Tigers played Ole Miss last week. They won 31-20 but it was a hard fought, competitive game. Texas A&M didn’t have to play at all last week as they were on a bye. The Aggies have won three straight going back to their shocking win over Alabama. But Kyle Field is a place where Auburn has done well in the past. They’ve won all four previous visits to College Station. So we don’t see any value on either side in this Saturday afternoon showdown in the SEC. But we do love the Under, which is 9-2 in Auburn’s last 11 conference games and 9-3 the past 12 times that A&M has been off a bye. The Aggies have the #3 scoring defense in the land, giving up just 16.1 points/game. Only Penn State and Georgia have scored more than 23 on Auburn. So this one promises to be low scoring. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

There was certainly an abundance of scoring in last night’s “MACtion” with the three games totaling 225 points. We had the Over in Miami vs. Ohio, which got wild at the end with four touchdowns scored in the last five minutes. But it’s a whole different set of teams in action on Wednesday and in the case of Central Michigan at Western Michigan, we are taking the Under. To this point, neither team is seeing more than 58 combined points scored per game. Central Michigan averages 29.0 and gives up 28.4. Western Michigan also scores 29.0 points/game while at the same time giving up slightly less than CMU (27.3). We don’t expect this game to be 17-14 by any means, but the over/under line just seems a bit high to us. Central Michigan is 6-1 Under its last seven road games. Western Michigan allows only 19.8 points/game at home. Western has had two huge scoring games, one against Pitt and the other against Kent State, but has not exceeded 28 points in any of the other six. They were held to 15 by Toledo in their last game. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Ohio is 1-7 and looking to snap a three-game losing streak in MAC play. All three of those losses have been by seven points or less. Usually, this is one of the better teams in the conference. But with Frank Solich, the former head coach, retiring not long before the season started, things have gone downhill in a hurry in Athens. Rival Miami will take no pity on the Bobcats. The RedHawks have won two straight and three of four. The one loss in conference play was by one point, at Eastern Michigan. What we expect here is Ohio to end its streak of five consecutive games going Under the total. Their defense is allowing 31.1 points/game, so it isn’t very good. Take away the game vs. Akron, who is the worst team in the MAC, and the Bobcats have given up at least 28 points in every other game. The good news for the home team is that its own scoring average is up to 28.5 points/game in conference play. The Over is 5-1 in Ohio’s last six Tuesday games. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

Cowboys QB Dak Prescott is listed as a game time decision for the Sunday nighter against the Vikings. Whether or not he plays, we like this game to go Over the total. Dallas will have plenty of offensive firepower surrounding the quarterback, no matter who ends up starting. If it’s Prescott, then we need not even sell you on an offense that is putting up 34.2 points/game thus far. The Cowboys have scored more than that average in each of their past four games. We think that even if Cooper Rush is called upon, the offense can score enough to help this one get Over the total. Minnesota gave up 28 points the last time we saw them. The Vikings offense has scored 30 or more in three of the last five games. So they too can score. Kirk Cousins had a season-high 373 yards vs. Carolina. The Dallas secondary allows 13 yards per completion. The Over has hit in each of Dallas’ past four games and we’re getting a good number because of the uncertainty surrounding Prescott. The Over is 5-0 for the Vikings the last five seasons off a bye week. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

There is one team in College Football that has gone Over in all of its FBS games this season. That is Tulsa, who returns to the field on Friday off a bye. The Golden Hurricane face a Navy team whose last five games have all seen a combined point total of 47 points or greater. That’s significant because of where tonight’s O/U line currently sits. But we expect a low-scoring affair in the American Conference tonight. That may seem strange. Going over all the 2021 results for both teams, there has been just one game - Navy’s 23-3 loss to Air Force - that has seen less than 47 combined points scored. But Navy’s offense isn’t getting it done this year. They’ve put up more than 20 points just two times. They do not even average 300 yards/game. Their 279.6 yards/game average is fourth worst in the FBS! While Tulsa has scored 67 points and gained 1,000 yards its last two games, they too are not immune from a poor offensive effort. Four of their seven games have resulted in 23 or less points scored. In this game, the Golden Hurricane will not have the same number of possessions as they are used to having. This is because Navy knows how to control the clock. Tulsa’s defense only gave up two touchdowns in its last game. That one went Over only because their opponent got touchdowns from its defense AND special teams. Don’t look for that to happen again tonight. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Green Bay has won six in a row, covering the spread every time, with Aaron Rodgers throwing 15 touchdown passes and just one interception. Arizona is 7-0 and the last unbeaten team standing. They have covered the spread each of the last five weeks. So this is poised to be one of the better Thursday night games of the season. However, the Packers do have major concerns at wide receiver due to Adams and Lazard both landing on the IR/COVID-19 list. But Rodgers can still make it work. The defensive side of the ball has also been affected by COVID-19 with coordinator Joe Barry set to miss this game. That could be the bigger problem as Arizona comes in averaging 32.1 points/game, which is fourth most in the league. But the Cardinals’ defense also has concerns. JJ Watt is likely done for the season. Both of these defenses have not exactly been facing some of the elite offenses in this league recently. We look for the two quarterbacks - Rodgers and Kyler Murray - to make sure this game goes Over the total. Green Bay has gone Over each of the last five times it has been an underdog. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

This was a 44-24 game last year with ECU winning outright as an eight point underdog. That was their first win over USF since 2014. The Pirates came into last year’s meeting having lost each of their first two games by 20 or more points. Unfortunately, the win didn’t lead to any kind of turnaround in Greenville as ECU finished the 2020 season at 3-6. They’ve already matched that win total this season as they come into Thursday’s game at 3-4. USF is 2-5 and last Saturday saw them record their first win against an FBS opponent since 2019 when they beat ECU 45-20. We’re not positive as to who comes out on top this year (although it will likely be ECU), but you can feel safe in expecting another high-scoring battle. USF has scored 31+ in its last two games. But the Bulls have also given up 32 or more five times in 2021. ECU’s defense is also pretty bad, but the Pirates are averaging 33.3 points/game at home. The Over is 9-3-1 in the last 13 USF games and 11-5 in East Carolina’s previous 16 conference games. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

Indianapolis put up 31 points last week in a win over Houston. The week before that they put up 25 against Baltimore. The week before that they scored 27 against Miami. So that’s an average of 27.7 points the last three weeks and the offense is averaging 416.7 yards to boot. Carson Wentz is playing well for them. He has already thrown for more than 1500 yards and nine touchdowns against just one interception. Versus Baltimore, Wentz threw for a career-high 402 yards and then he averaged more than 20 yards per completion last week against Houston. So we expect them to put up a solid number of points this week. The Colts would have even more points scored this year if not for some unfortunate red zone inefficiency. As for San Francisco, Jimmy G is back in the starting lineup. The last time he finished a game was also on a Sunday night (vs. Green Bay) and the 49ers scored 28 points. The team is coming off a bye, so they’ve had plenty of time to prepare for facing the Colts' defense. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 9* on UNDER

The Patriots are still without a home win this year, but that’s likely to change after today. They host the Jets, a team they’ve already beaten 25-6. But if New England is to pick up that elusive first home victory, expect it to come in low scoring fashion. We are on the Under in this AFC East matchup. The Jets are off a bye and have been an underdog in every game. Rookie QB Wilson threw four picks the first time he faced Belichick’s defense. It was not a pretty sight. Here’s the thing though: the Patriots’ offense gained only 260 yards in that game. In three of the four home games this year, New England has failed to score 20 points. So we’re not counting on them scoring a ton here. Most of those 25 points they scored in the first game with the Jets were off turnovers. For the Jets, QB Wilson hasn’t matured enough where we’d expect him to play that much better in this rematch. But he should limit the turnovers this time. The Jets’ offense hasn’t gained 300 total yards in any game that didn’t go to overtime. That’s pretty sad. The Jets are last in points per game (13.4), 31st in total yards and 31st in rushing. New England only had 14 points with six minutes to go last week and they rank 26th in total yards and 27th in rushing yards. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

Except when they played Georgia (gave up 56 points) and Liberty (gave up 36), the defense of UAB has been pretty stout in 2021. That’s nothing new under Bill Clark. The Blazers had a solid defense last year as well. The Under is 6-1 in their games this season and 5-0 the last five. They are not facing an opponent the caliber of Georgia or Liberty this week. Rice has been shutout twice and scored no more than 17 points four different times. But UAB could put this one Over themselves. Again, taking away those two games vs. Georgia and Liberty, the Blazers offense has scored a minimum of 28 points every game. They’ve scored 31 and 34 the past two games and that was against defenses that aren’t as bad as the one they face this week. Rice gave up 45 last week at UTSA. It was the fifth game this season where the Owls allowed at least 34 points. They’ve allowed 34 or more in half of their games. Give us at least one touchdown Rice and we’ll like our chances with the Over. The Over has hit in all of Rice’s previous five visits to Birmingham. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 9* on OVER

Oh hi Penn State, we’d almost forgotten about you. It’s been two weeks since the Nittany Lions suffered their first loss of the year. They lost 23-20 at Iowa, a game where their four turnovers played a significant role in the outcome. James Franklin’s team got last week off to recoup and now should be ready to hand out a beatdown in State College to visiting Illinois. The Fighting Illini come into this one with a 2-5 straight up record and one of those wins came back in August. That would be when we had them vs. Nebraska in the season opener and they pulled the upset. They too are coming off a bye. Despite that, both teams could be without their starting quarterbacks for this one. We still like the Over. Illinois should be used to playing without Brandon Peters at this point. Backup Artur Sitkowski was in for the first two games where the Illini put up 30 plus points. Illinois can also run the ball as the duo of Brown and McCray have gone for 748 yards. We don’t have much confidence in the Illini’s ability to defend, however. Starter Sean Clifford practiced this week for Penn State. But the Nittany Lions may not even need him. That’s because Illinois’ defense ranks last in the Big 10 in scoring, pass defense, total defense and third down rate. They allowed 493 yards in the last game (to a Wisconsin offense that hasn’t been impressive otherwise). Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

A multitude of injuries on the Cleveland side have seen this spread drop like a rock and with it, the total has come down as well. But be mindful of the fact that Denver just put up over 400 yards last week in a loss to the Raiders. They only scored 24 points because they had four turnovers. The Browns defense isn’t very good; it has given up 84 points the last two games. So we expect the Broncos to score a decent amount of points in this Thursday night road tilt. But their own defense has some issues that may not be properly addressed in a short week. Since a 3-0 start that saw them hold the Giants, Jets and Jaguars to a total of 26 points, Denver’s defense has given up an average of 28 points in three straight losses. The Browns will start Case Keenum at QB. Most will tell you how this is a downgrade from Baker Mayfield and they aren’t wrong. Keenum is not helped by the fact that over half of the Browns’ offensive starters are injured. However, the Broncos’ defense has a ton of injuries as well. Three linebackers are out. The Over is 6-2 the last eight times the Browns have been off a loss. Too many things can happen in an NFL game - like a touchdown by the defense or special teams - for us not to choose Over when the total is this low. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State meet Wednesday night in a matchup that is very likely to determine who represents the East Division in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game. Coastal Carolina won the division last year and had a perfect 11-0 SU record going into the bowls. They are perfect again (so far) this year with a 6-0 SU record. Appalachian State has already lost two games in 2021, but only one in conference play and that was last week to Louisiana, which came by a rather shocking score of 41-13. The Mountaineers lost at Coastal Carolina 34-23 last year, a result that decided the SBC East Division. Coastal Carolina is even stronger this year as they have scored at least 49 points five times and averaged 54.7 points their last three games. So considering how many points App State allowed last week to Louisiana, this is an automatic ‘Over’ for us. One would expect the home team is going to score a lot more than it did last week. The Mountaineers averaged 35.2 points/game the first five weeks of the season. They are easily the best team Coastal Carolina has played this season. Both teams will have no problem getting to 30 points. The Over is 6-0 the past six times Appalachian State has been off an ATS defeat. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Though they lost Week 1 to the Steelers, this start to the season that the Bills have put together really couldn’t be much more dominant. They’ve scored the most points in the league and also given up the fewest. On Monday they will face the Titans, a team that beat them 42-16 in a rare Tuesday game last season, and we believe that the Buffalo offense will keep humming right along. We warned you about this Tennessee defense back in Week 1 when we played the Cardinals. The Titans gave up 38 points in that game. They have given up at least 27 in three of their five games, one of those times coming against the Jets who are last in the league in scoring. The Bills come in averaging 34.4 points/game and should hit that average tonight. As for the Bills having allowed the fewest points, it obviously helps that they have faced Miami and Houston. The other three games have seen them give up 20 or more points every time. Tennessee remains a strong team offensively with RB Derrick Henry, who has 640 yards and four straight 100-plus yard games. The Over is 25-9-1 in the Titans’ last 35 games overall and 7-1 the last eight times they have been an underdog. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

Well, there’s a lot going on with this matchup isn’t there?. Arizona, the only undefeated team left in the NFL, will be without its head coach and QB coach because of COVID-19. This is on top of several on the field absences: Center Rodney Hudson, TE Maxx Williams and LB Chandler Jones. But Cleveland is not unscathed coming into Week 6 either. They will be missing RB Nick Chubb. There were 16 others on the injury report, several of whom will not play. But these teams are still more than capable of sending this one Over the total. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is having an MVP caliber season thus far as he has completed 70% of his passes in four straight games. The offense is fourth in points per game at 31.4. The Browns were just involved in a 47-42 game last week. They lost despite gaining 531 yards. While Chubb is out, Baker Mayfield can still hand the ball to Kareem Hunt, who once led the NFL in rushing.. Arizona being banged up in the secondary should open things up for the Browns in the passing game. When these defense have turned in quality performances this year, it has been because they’ve faced subpar quarterbacks. We believe the total has come down too much for this matchup. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 9* on OVER

Alabama, coming off its first loss since November 2019, heads to Starkville this week to face Mississippi State. The Crimson Tide were stunned last Saturday night down in College Station, losing to Texas A&M as 15.5 point favorites. They gave up 41 points, too many to overcome, especially after falling into a two touchdown hole at halftime. But the Tide did outgain the Aggies 522-379. They put up 38 points and have now scored 31 or more every game in 2021. They should not have a problem moving the ball or scoring on Miss State, who was off last week after they went on the road and defeated Texas A&M two weekends ago. The Bulldogs’ defense has had only one good game so far. They’ve been pretty consistent on offense, averaging 27.8 points/game. Miss State has not scored many points on the Bama defense through the years, but Mike Leach is now the head coach. Leach’s offense is averaging 429 yards/game, almost all of it coming through the air. Will Rogers is the only SEC quarterback to throw for 400 yards and two or more TDs in the same game and he’s done it twice. Off a loss, Bama will come out firing but MSU can score too. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

It’s a low total Friday night in San Jose. But when you factor in that the Spartans have scored 17 or less points in four of their last five games, all of a sudden the number doesn’t look that low. San Diego State is giving up just 16.6 points/game on the year. The Aztecs rank among the top 20 nationally in scoring defense. So that’s one side of the equation. The other is how many will SDSU score? We don’t think it will be a lot. San Jose State can play some defense too, evident by the fact they are giving up just 23.8 points/game. SJSU’s defensive coordinator is Rocky Long. Long used to be the head coach at San Diego State. Both teams are unsettled at quarterback, which is something that is worth noting. The San Diego State offense has yet to have a 200 yard passing day this season. Nor has San Jose State in its last three games. The Spartans also won’t be able to run the ball very effectively in this contest as the Aztecs are permitting only 50 rush yards/game. The Under is 5-0 in San Diego State’s previous five Friday night games. Should be a low-scoring affair on the West Coast. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Over the next two weeks, Appalachian State will face the other two top Sun Belt teams. Next week they’ve got undefeated Coastal Carolina at home. But tonight the Mountaineers must travel to face Louisiana. Both teams are 4-1 SU on the season with a loss to a Power 5 school. App State lost by two at Miami while Louisiana got beat by Texas 38-18. The last three ASU games have all gone Over with them averaging 40 points and 537 yards per contest. Louisiana is 4-1 Under on the year, but has averaged 38 points in two home games. Defensively, the Ragin Cajuns do struggle to stop the run. They are allowing 171 yards/game on the ground. That’s a problem going against ASU, a team that averages almost 200 yards rushing/game. The road team is probably going to put a lot of points on the board here. We know that Louisiana has gone over 28 points in just one game this season, but if they were to hit that number tonight, the Over would be a virtual lock. We think it’s very possible as the Over is 4-0 the previous four times ULL has been a home underdog. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER

The Eagles’ defense has been terrible the past two weeks. Some of that has to do with losing defensive end Brandon Graham to a season ending ACL injury. Some of it has to do with facing the Cowboys and Chiefs. Still, there’s no excuse for giving up 41+ points in back to back games. Philadelphia is 31st in the league right now at stopping the run, so even without Christian McCaffery they can move the ball. The 3-1 Panthers have averaged 26 points/game the last three weeks and should have no problem achieving that average again. But their defense was exposed a bit last week as they too got a taste of the Cowboys. Carolina allowed 36 points against Dallas, which was more than they allowed the first three weeks when they faced the Jets, Saints and Texans. We think the Eagles are going to be able to do something closer to what the Cowboys did than the other three teams. Jalen Hurts is coming off a career day where he threw for 387 yards. Twice the Eagles have hit 30 points this year and only once have they been held under 21. The Over is 33-16 in Philadelphia’s past 49 road games and is 21-9 L30 when they are a road dog. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on the UNDER

Here is a Saturday matchup off the radar of most. South Alabama is 3-1. Their last three games have been decided by a total of 12 points. Last week saw the Jaguars lose for the first time, 20-18 to Louisiana. We are surprised that this total is north of 50 points seeing as no USA game this season has seen that many scored. Texas State, 1-3 on the year, is coming off two high scoring games. Both were losses, one of them at home to Incarnate Word by a score of 42-34! Then the Bobcats went to Eastern Michigan and got beat 59-21. They were off last week. With an extra week to prepare, look for their defense to get back on track here. The Under is 7-1 in Texas State’s last eight games after a bye. It also helps that South Alabama has not scored more than 31 in any game this season. Texas State has averaged fewer than 20 points/game vs. FBS teams, excluding overtime. So we just can’t see this one getting to 50 points, let alone more than that. The Under is 6-1 in the Jaguars’ last seven road games and 4-0 the last four times they’ve been off an ATS win. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

Cleveland is a top 10 offense and QB Mayfield is completing 73% of his passes. But the strength of this Browns offense is the run game. It’s arguably the best in the league with Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb. Coach Kevin Stefanski knows the opponent well as he previously served as the offensive coordinator under Mike Zimmer in Minnesota. But the Vikings can score as well, Kirk Cousins is playing at a very high level so far. He’s throwing for over 300 yards/game, has eight touchdowns and no interceptions. It certainly looks as if he’s getting Dalvin Cook back this week. Cook missed the team’s 30-17 win over Seattle in Week 3. Minnesota is 1-2, but four points away from being 3-0 and the offense has produced over 400 total yards in every game. The dominant performance we saw from Cleveland’s defense last week should be immediately tossed aside as they were facing a rookie QB making his first start behind a terrible offensive line. The Browns allowed an average of 27 points in its first two games. The Over is 8-2 the Vikings past 10 home games. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

Louisiana Tech and North Carolina State should be headed for a shootout Saturday night in Raleigh. Louisiana Tech is off its lowest scoring game of the season, a 24-17 win over North Texas. The first three weeks of the season saw them score at least 34 points in every game. They also gave up at least 35 in every game. NC State is off its biggest win in some time as it handed Clemson a second loss in 2021. The Wolfpack were victorious by a 27-21 margin. That was after averaging 45 points in the first two home wins. They’ve won 11 straight at Carter-Finney Stadium vs. Group of 5 teams and are 21-1 under Dave Doeren at home vs. all non-conference teams. This is a bit of a letdown spot but La Tech’s defense is giving up 6.0 yards/play. NC State should have beaten Clemson in regulation last week but the kicker missed three field goals. Look for them to score plenty of touchdowns this week. La Tech was missing its starting QB last week but coach Holtz is hopeful that Austin Kendall will return Saturday. The Bulldogs are 4-0 Over after their last four SU wins. Play on OVER

This is a 10* on UNDER

This should be a good one Friday night in the Big 10. Iowa and Maryland both come in at 4-0. Only the Hawkeyes are ranked and while they are #5 in the country, they survived a scare at home last week vs. Colorado State. It was only a 10-point win, 24-14, over a team they were supposed to beat by 24. They even trailed at the half. But we need not worry about winning by any kind of margin this week. Instead, we will simply trust a Hawkeyes defense that is third in the country in scoring (11.0 PPG allowed). Maryland QB Tagovailoa has put up some nice numbers, but has yet to face a defense as good as the one he’ll face here. When the Terps opened Big 10 play with a game at Illinois, they scored only 20 points. Lost in the talk of how good Iowa’s defense has been is how sound Maryland’s D has been. The Terps are allowing only 14.3 points/game so far. So we’ve got two of the country’s top 10 scoring defenses facing off. Iowa’s offense has scored more than three touchdowns in only one game. Against Power 5 opponents, they’ve averaged just 238 yards/game. All four of their games so far have gone Under. Maryland is 4-0 Under its last four Big 10 games. Play on UNDER

This is a 10* on the OVER

Both the Eagles and Cowboys are 1-1. Philadelphia won its first game but lost the second. It’s been just the opposite for Dallas. An Eagles defense that has yet to force a turnover will struggle to stop a high-powered Cowboys offense Monday night. Dallas averaged 6.4 yards per rush and 8.8 yards per pass against the Chargers last week. It was a little stunning that they only had 20 points and needed a 56-yard field goal on the final play to win. Through the first two weeks, the Cowboys are averaging 435 yards/game and converting over 55 percent of their third down opportunities. They have 35 plays of 10 or more yards. It was already going to be a tough task for Philly to slow down their opponents in this game. With DE Brandon Graham suffering a season-ending ACL injury last week, the task is now that much harder. So that’s one half of this equation. After scoring 32 in the season opener, the Eagles were held to 11 last week by the 49ers. But they had a blocked field goal and a 94-yard drive ended with no points. Dallas doesn’t have a good defense. They’ve allowed over 400 yards to both of their 2021 opponents. The Over is 8-2 in the Cowboys' last 10 home games. The Eagles are on a 15-6 run to the Over after a game where they were held under 15 points. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 8* on OVER

Arizona is humming so far at 2-0. The offense has scored 72 points in two games. We had them in Week 1 when they went to Tennessee and whipped the Titans 38-13 as a 2.5 point underdog. Last week saw the Cardinals survive a missed Vikings FG attempt on the final play to win 34-33. They’ve scored a lot of points so far, but Arizona is still the only team in the league that hasn’t gone Over the total in a single road game the last two seasons. The Under is 8-0-1 in their last nine road games. But considering the state of the offense, we think we can count on them to put lots of points on the scoreboard this Sunday. Kyler Murray threw for over 400 yards against the Vikings. Jacksonville is not humming along right now as it’s an 0-2 start under Urban Meyer. The only thing the Jaguars are leading the league in right now is turnovers with five. They were beaten at home by Houston in Week 1, 37-21, which was a total embarrassment. The offense couldn’t do much (less than 200 yards) in last week’s 23-13 loss to Denver. Meyer and Trevor Lawrence desperately need a good performance in their second home game. The franchise’s losing streak is now at 17 straight. Arizona’s defense isn’t good so the Jags probably will score a season-high in points Sunday. But the problem is the Cardinals will score a lot too. Murray is going to be facing a banged up secondary. That Under streak on the road ends this week. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 9* on the UNDER

Not expecting a lot of points from this AFC North matchup. Bengals’ games have averaged 44 points so far. That’s how many points they’ve scored and allowed in two weeks. The Steelers have scored 40 and given up 42 for an average of 41 points/game. Ben Roethlisberger, whose best days are behind him, enters Week 3 banged up. The Steelers’ offensive line has played poorly thus far and will be challenged against this Cincinnati pass rush led by Trey Hendrickson. The poor offensive line play has also resulted in Pittsburgh averaging only 3.2 yards per carry in the run game. The good news for Pittsburgh is that the Bengals also have a poor offensive line. Joe Burrow has already been sacked nine times. We saw what the Steelers pass rush did to Josh Allen in Week 1. Now they weren’t as effective in a 26-17 loss to Las Vegas last week. TJ Watt got hurt and is questionable for this week. A couple other defensive players have already been ruled out. Despite those absences, Pittsburgh’s defense will still be fine. We can't see the Bengals putting up a ton of points in this game. In a 20-17 loss to Chicago last week, they only gained 248 yards. But the defense only allowed 208. Taking the Under is an easy call here.

AAA

This is an 8* on UNDER

This is a game where the points are tempting. Before losing 38-21 to Liberty last year, Syracuse had won and covered five straight times vs. Group of 5 foes at the Carrier Dome. This season began with a 29-9 home win over Ohio. Dino Babers has not had much success here, going just 26-37 in six-plus seasons and 10 of those wins were in 2018. The Orange dropped to 1-10 in 2020 but have already surpassed last year’s win total with victories over Ohio and Albany. The improvement has mostly come from the defensive side of the ball, which is allowing averages of just 16.7 points and 225.3 yards/game while ranking 24th in EPA. But you can’t look past them only scoring 7 points in the loss to Rutgers. Liberty is a good team and has a good defense as well. The Flames have held each of their first three opponents to 17 points or less. But in their only road game, the offense scored only 21 against Troy. Liberty probably escapes with a win, but it’s going to be a low-scoring affair. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

We’ve got a backup QB starting for Houston and he’s a rookie no less. If that’s not bad enough, the rookie in question (Davis Mills) will be facing the defense that has given up the fewest yards in the league through two weeks. And it’s a short week for Mills. So you can pretty much write off the notion of the Texans scoring many points on Thursday Night Football. After Mills replaced injured starter Tyrod Taylor last week, the offense managed just one touchdown against what is a pretty porous Cleveland defense. The Panthers are only putting up 22.5 points/game and enter this one knowing it won’t take much scoring to get to 3-0 on the season. Look for them to play it pretty conservative on offense as Sam Darnold still can’t be trusted to air it out. They will instead look to run a lot with Christian McCaffery. He’s had 59 touches in two games. Back to the defense, Carolina has yet to give up any points in the first half. The Under is 5-0 in their last five regular season games. Tonight has all the makings of a low-scoring affair. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Marshall and Appalachian State played each other last season. Marshall pulled the outright upset on their way to a 7-0 start. It was a very low-scoring game, 17-7, as most Thundering Herd games were in 2020. It was a team with one of the best defenses in the country but a fairly inept offense. The inept offense ended up getting Doc Holliday fired when the Herd lost their last three games while averaging 7.7 points. Under Charles Huff, the offense has been reborn this year as it is averaging 43.7 points and 603 yards per game. The defense just gave up 42 though in a loss to East Carolina last week. Appalachian State can also score as they are putting up 33.3 points/game through three weeks. So this has all the makings of a high-scoring affair. The O/U line for last year’s game was pretty comparable to what we’ve got here. Obviously, the teams couldn’t come close to the number last year. But this year Marshall’s offense is much better and the defense isn’t as good. Appalachian State has welcomed its best receiver (Chase Sutton) back after he sat out the 2020 season. So their offense is better this year as well. We should also bring up how Marshall’s QB Grant Wells is coming off the two best passing days of his career. Both defenses ranked in the Top 15 last year in yards/play allowed. Now they are both outside the Top 40. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

We’ve got a recipe for a shootout on Sunday when the Texans and Browns meet in First Energy Stadium. Houston is expected to be one of the worst teams in the league this year but that did not stop them from putting up 37 points in an upset win over Jacksonville in Week 1. The offense averaged 6.0 yards per play with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. Cleveland is expected to be one the better AFC teams but they lost 29-27 to Kansas City last Sunday, blowing a 22-10 halftime lead. Baker Mayfield and the offense were red hot in the first half, averaging more than nine yards per play. They finished with 8.2 yards per play, 457 total yards and really should have won that game. No interest in laying the double digit spread with the Browns here, however we are confident that they will put up a lot of points. So too will the Texans as the Browns defense couldn’t get off the field in the second half last week. Taylor isn’t Patrick Mahomes but he did throw for almost 300 yards last week. These teams’ Week 1 games averaged 60 points and we don’t need to get nearly that high to send this one Over. The Browns are 6-1 Over their last seven games on grass. Play OVER

This is an 8* on UNDER

It’s been a very disappointing start for Iowa State, who opened the year ranked in the top ten. First they could barely get by Northern Iowa, a FCS school. But that 16-10 WIN pales in comparison to the embarrassment suffered last weekend when they lost against Iowa, 27-17, this time in front of ESPN’s College Gameday. The offense failing to top 17 points in either game is a real concern in Ames. Now the Cyclones are still ranked 14th in the country and that’s a lot better than where the UNLV program is at right now. The Rebels have yet to win in eight tries during the Marcus Arroyo regime and this season got off to a bad start with a 35-33 loss to Eastern Washington. Losing to a FCS school was probably even more embarrassing than what happened last week as the Rebels could only muster 10 points and 155 yards against Arizona State. This has all the makings of a low scoring affair Saturday night. Depending on the upper body injury to Doug Brumfield, whose status you should monitor, it could be Tate Martell making his first collegiate start for UNLV this week. Martell has already transferred out of Ohio State and Miami FL, so maybe it’s time to admit that the former HS Player of the Year simply isn’t that good? Whomever starts under center must face an ISU defense that has permitted an average of only 15.3 points and 288.1 yards the last seven games. Excluding non-offensive scores, the Cyclones have allowed just 22 second half points in those seven games. We don’t think their offense will score all that much here either. So the call is simple. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

This is not a great spot for the Louisville Cardinals. It is their third game in 12 days and they will be facing a UCF offense that is averaging 49.5 points and 622 yards per game. Both those numbers are second best in the country. Louisville has already allowed 43 points in a loss to Ole Miss this year. They only gave up three points last week, but that was against a FCS team, Eastern Kentucky. Given the schedule and the offense the Cardinals will face, they are very likely to give up a ton of points Friday night. Yes, UCF also played a FCS school last week. But they also put up almost 600 yards in the opener against Boise State. They put up 671 against Bethune-Cookman last week. This is a program that’s impressed us for years. They also apparently impressed the Big 12 Conference because that’s where the Golden Knights are headed, perhaps as early as 2023. QB Dillon Gabriel is 11th in the country in passing yards. Coach Gus Malzahn was a winner at Auburn and should get off to a 3-0 start in his first season here. Louisville gave up 569 yards to an Ole Miss offense that is pretty similar to what UCF runs. Rather than lay the points on the road, we’re more confident in this game going Over.. The Knights are 7-0 Over their previous seven September games. Louisville is 6-0 Over after its last six straight up victories. The Cardinals are certainly capable of scoring 30 or more points this week. They’ve scored 56 in the last six quarters. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

You’ve got a Giants team that’s 13-3-1 to the Under since the start of the 2020 season. That’s the highest Under percentage in the league over that time. They COULD be without starting running back Saquon Barkley Thursday night as it's a short week and Barkley is still recovering from ACL surgery. No matter as the Giants only scored 13 points with him in the lineup last week against Denver. And that was at home. The Giants were 31st in league last year, ahead of only the Jets, averaging 17.5 points/game. The Under is 8-0 the last eight times New York has been an underdog and 7-0 the last seven years (for them) in Week 2. It’s also 20-8 the past 28 times they’ve taken on Washington. The Football Team is already on its backup quarterback with Taylor Heinicke replacing the injured Ryan Fitzpatrick. Heinicke did play a decent amount in last week’s 20-16 loss to the Chargers. So Washington also failed to score 20 points in Week 1. That shouldn’t be surprising. Last season’s average total number of points scored in Washington games was 42.3. The only team whose games averaged fewer points was (you guessed it) the Giants at 39.8. So this total is not too low. The Under is 10-1 in Washington’s last 11 games on grass. They have a good defense. One more trend to close - the Giants are 6-0 Under coming off a double digit loss at home. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

Baltimore has a habit of getting the season off to a great start as they’ve covered five straight Week 1 games. They’ve scored 38 or more points each of the last three openers. Lamar Jackson has accounted for eight touchdowns the last two years in Week 1, the most by any player in the league. The Las Vegas defense really struggled in ‘20 giving up the second most touchdowns in the NFL. It worked out to 30.8 points/game allowed. The absolutely terrible injury bug that has bitten Baltimore’s running backs would be a bigger deal if they didn’t have Jackson. But they do. Look for Jackson to hook up with TE Mark Andrews, who had seven touchdowns over the final seven regular season games of last year. One injury on the defensive side of the ball, to CB Peters, may be a bigger deal here for Baltimore. That’s because the Raiders averaged 27.1 points/game themselves last year. That’s an almost identical number to what the Ravens averaged offensively. So it’s no surprise the Over was 13-3 in all Las Vegas games in the 2020 season. Seven of the eight home games went Over including all six where they were an underdog. They ended 2020 on a 5-0 Over run. The last five times they’ve played Baltimore, the game has gone Over. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 9* on UNDER

For the fourth straight year, Chicago and Los Angeles will be facing off in primetime. The previous three installments have all been low-scoring games (Under 3-0) and seen an average of just 26.3 points/game scored. The quarterbacks will be different this time around, but we think the end result (a low-scoring game) will remain the same. Andy Dalton starting for the Bears is a mistake and we don’t fear him at all going against what was the league’s #1 ranked scoring defense last year. Not only did the Rams allow the fewest points/game (18.5), they also allowed the fewest number of yards. In the last three meetings vs. the Rams, Matt Nagy’s offense has scored just 32 points and never topped 15. Jared Goff is the new starter in LA and while he’s going to be better than Jared Goff was, the loss of RB Cam Akers to a season-ending injury does loom large. The Under was 8-0 in Rams’ home games during the 2020 season as there was an average of only 34.3 total points/game scored. This total looks way too high for the first week of the regular season considering the head to head history and Dalton facing what was the top-ranked defense in the league last year. It wasn’t just last year; the Under is 14-3 in the Rams’ last 17 home games. Chicago is 13-5 Under its last 18 games as a road underdog. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

We like the Over in 49ers-Lions game as well. We already went through how easily the Niners should be able to move the ball in this one. Well, let’s now throw in the fact that the last 10 Lions season openers have all gone Over the total. Their offense should score enough to make it 11 in a row. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 9* on UNDER

Penn State may not see a better defense all season than the one they faced last week. The fact the Nittany Lions went to Wisconsin and won 16-10 bodes really well for James Franklin and this season. But PSU did only gain 11 first downs for the game and needed a +3 turnover margin to win in Madison. They had the ball for just over 17 minutes. They will do better offensively this week against Ball State, who was a 31-21 winner last week over Western Illinois, but count on this being another low-scoring affair for the Nittany Lions. Not just because of their question marks on offense, but they also happen to have a pretty great defense in Happy Valley these days. Ball State just isn’t going to do much scoring Saturday in Beaver Stadium. The Cardinals’ only hope in this game is that Penn State is looking ahead to Auburn next week. Being in the middle of a Wisconsin-Auburn sandwich does somewhat work to BSU’s favor. It’s an experienced team out of Muncie, one that won the MAC Championship Game last December. We actually believe they can hang around … for a while. If we’re right about that, it probably means it’s a low scoring game. The Under is 6-0 in Ball State’s previous six games vs. Big Ten competition. Play on UNDER 

This is an 8* on OVER

Illinois was so kind to us in their first game when they upset Nebraska 30-22 as a 6.5-point underdog. We did not take them a second time when they faced UTSA last week. The Illini did score 30 points again. But this time the defense allowed 37. They gave up almost 500 yards at home. The defense figures to be tested again this week as it goes to Charlottesville to take on a Virginia team that’s won nine straight non-conference home games. The Cavaliers also just so happened to score 43 points in their first game. While it was against William & Mary, the fact the Hoos gained well over 500 yards is worth something. Nine different receivers caught a pass. "There's appearing to be the makings of a pretty diverse offense with a lot of different opportunities, with room to grow on the execution," UVA coach Bronco Mendenhall said. On the flip side, it’s very impressive to see Illinois score 60 points in two games with a backup quarterback. Sitkowski will start Saturday, but we could see Brandon Peters for the first time since the opening game. The Over is 10-4 in Illinois’ last 14 games after an ATS loss. Not only is the Over 10-2 in Virginia’s last 12 home games, it is 27-11-1 the last 38 times they’ve been favored. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

You surely remember how Tampa Bay’s 2020 season ended. A 31-9 thrashing of Kansas City in Super Bowl LV has to rank among the peak accomplishments of Tom Brady’s career and think of the ground that covers. Every starter from the Bucs’ Super Bowl winning team  - on both offense and defense - returns for the 2021 season. That has never happened for a SB winning team in the salary cap era. An even more frightening proposition is that Brady was playing with an injured knee last season and still threw for 50 touchdowns in the regular season & playoffs. He’s had offseason surgery to fix the knee issue and also has had an additional year to further grasp Bruce Arians’ offense. The Cowboys, coming off a 6-10 SU campaign, do not have the defense to stop the Buccaneers. They gave up 29.6 points/game last year. While Jerry Jones sought to address the defensive concerns via the Draft, we don’t think you are going to see automatic improvement on that side of the ball, right off the bat. We do think you’ll see the Cowboys’ offense be good again now that Dak Prescott is set to return from an ankle injury that cost him most of the 2020 season. Even with RG Martin possibly missing Thursday’s game, the offensive line is one of the league’s best. RB Elliott should have a bounce back year and we like the receivers. The Over has hit in 8 of the last 10 games where Tampa Bay has been a home favorite. Dallas is 4-0 Over its last four tries as an underdog. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Should be a ton of points in this one. Ole Miss led the SEC in rushing last season. They also have one of the top QBs in the nation, Matt Corral. We know they won’t have Lane Kiffin (COVID-19), but the personnel is strong enough to overcome the absence of the coach. Now the Rebels defense is a different story. They gave up the most yards, not just in the SEC but in the entire country! Louisville’s offense should revert back to 2019 when QB Cunningham had 22 touchdowns and just five interceptions. This is his third year as the starter. Cunningham will have a big game here, if only because he HAS to. Corral led FBS in total yards per game last year. Mississippi games were insanely high scoring. They went over 40 points five times in 2020. But they also gave up more than 40 five different times. This game certainly has the potential to see both teams go for 40-plus. Five teams gained 500 yards against the Rebels last year. Play on OVER

AAA

THis is a 10* on OVER

The marquee game on Saturday pits #5 Georgia against #3 Clemson. This game takes place in Charlotte where Clemson has won six straight times, five of those being for the ACC Championship. So they’ve got a bit of a “home field” advantage, though we’re sure they’d prefer this game to take place in Death Valley. You also might think that the Tigers wish they still had Trevor Lawrence at QB. But his replacement D.J. Uiagalelei threw for 439 yards last year against Notre Dame,a game Clemson lost but still put up 40 points. So don’t think for a second that this Clemson offense is going to struggle much to score points with Lawrence off to the NFL. JT Daniels is the Georgia QB and threw for 10 touchdowns over the final four games of last year. The Dawgs’ offensive backfield is even more talented when accounting for the loaded running back position. Both programs may be known for defense, but the coaches know it’s going to take plenty of points to win this one. Asking both offenses to top 25 points doesn’t seem like asking for too much? Georgia went Over in six of its last seven regular season games. There was only one game last year where they failed to hit 24. Clemson never scored fewer than 28 in any game during 2020. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on UNDER

This is going to be an ugly, low-scoring contest. Navy scored only 13 points in the final three games of 2020. They go up against a Marshall defense that not only had an entire offseason to prepare for the triple option, but also led the country in stopping the run last year. The Thundering Herd allowed just 96 yards/game on the ground in what was largely a successful campaign. They were also #1 in the country in scoring defense. But the Thundering Herd finished 7-3 (started 7-0) due in large part to their own offensive ineptitude. They were shut out by Rice, scored only 13 in the C-USA Championship vs. UAB and then only 10 in a bowl loss to Buffalo. This is an offense that put up 20 points or less in half of its games. All the big point totals came against really weak opponents. Navy’s defense has all of its starters from last year back and will be stout. The last three games of 2020 saw them hold every opponent to less than 300 total yards, a first for the program going back to 1997. But back to the Navy offense for a second. They are off their least productive year on the ground in over a quarter century. Marshall’s D allowed more than 17 points in just one game last year! Play on UNDER 

AAA

This is an 8* on UNDER

Old Dominion took the 2020 season off so this is our first look at the program since November 30th, 2019 when they lost to Charlotte 38-22. The Monarchs have not won a College Football game since August 31st of 2019 against Norfolk State. Their last win over an FBS opponent was on November 10, 2018 over North Texas. The last time ODU beat a FBS team by more than three points was September 22, 2018 when they beat a Virginia Tech team that was ranked 13th in the country at the time! So we shouldn’t expect much from them in the 2021 season opener vs. Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons struggled defensively in 2020, but we aren’t expecting much from the Monarchs’ offense in this first game. Another key is offseason injuries with the Wake Forest offense. Now they will still put up points, led by QB Hartman. Just not enough to get this one Over the total. We just don’t expect ODU to score much. Wake would have to exceed 45 points for the Over to even have a chance here. In the first game of the season, we’re not seeing them score that many. Only two of the top nine receivers from the 2019 team are back. Another team that took 2020 off - UConn - was blanked in its 2021 opener last weekend. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

The big question this week is whether or not Patrick Mahomes is going to play. He left the Divisional Round win over Cleveland with a concussion. Mahomes was practicing again Friday after taking almost all the snaps in practice on Wednesday and Thursday. So it sure does look like he’s going to be the man under center for the Chiefs Sunday as they face the Buffalo Bills in a rematch from Week 6 of the regular season. Kansas City won in Buffalo, 26-17, in what was a hastily rescheduled game played on a Monday night. Since that time, the Bills have been beaten just once in 12 games and that came on the “Hail Murray” vs. Arizona. With or without Mahomes in there (we expect him to play), expect this game to be higher scoring than the one from the regular season. The Bills are averaging 30.3 points/game this year while the Chiefs are at 29.1. Last week was not indicative of what we’re used to seeing from either offense. KC ran for a season-best 245 yards against Buffalo the first time. Meanwhile, Buffalo is as pass happy as it gets.The Chiefs defense is the worst in the league in the red zone, so expect the Bills to score touchdowns, not field goals, when they get there. The Over is 12-5-1 in Bills games this season, one of the higher percentages in the league. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

The Browns were fortunate to jump out to a 28-0 lead on the Steelers last week and held on for a 48-37 win. Pittsburgh turning the ball over five times played a key role in how the game started and obviously the final result. It is unlikely Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City will be so generous. After watching the Browns defense give up over 500 yards passing last week, Mahomes has to be licking his chops. Cleveland’s pass defense has been very bad all year against the deep ball, on third downs and at stopping tight ends. The Chiefs offense is prolific in all those areas. The Browns allowed Mason Rudolph to throw for over 300 yards, for crying out loud! Bottom line is what you should expect here is a lot of points by KC, who is off a bye and rested most starters in Week 17. But the thing is Cleveland will score too. They’ve now had three 40+ point games in the last six weeks! With Chubb and Hunt, they have the best rushing attack in the league. The Chiefs’ defense is 31st (2nd worst) against the run. Also, the Chiefs defense has been very bad in the red zone, giving up a TD on 77% of all trips. That was the highest percentage in the league. The Browns offense scores a TD on 74% of its red zone opportunities, which is third best. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

Snow is a possibility Saturday night in Buffalo, but as we’ve seen countless times before, the public often overreacts to that when it comes to betting the total. Both the Ravens and Bills can score in bunches and we don’t think the “white stuff” is going to be able to stop either team. Baltimore averages 28.7 points/game on the year. They only scored 20 last week, but had averaged 37.2 the previous five games. Buffalo averages 31.1 points/game on the year. The Ravens defense did a great job last week containing Derrick Henry, but the Bills’ passing attack may prove more difficult to contain. Josh Allen was 4th in the league in completion percentage and has been exceptional against the blitz (which the Ravens like to do), throwing a league high 17 TD passes against it. But the Bills need to be concerned about their own defense, which just allowed 472 yards to the Colts last week. They gave up 163 rushing and 309 passing. Lamar Jackson is likely to have another big game this week after running for over 100 yards vs. the Titans. Bills games are 12-4-1 to the Over this season, which is the second highest Over percentage in the league. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

So the Bears’ offense somewhat transformed down the stretch, really taking off once they settled back on Mitch Trubisky as the starting quarterback. While it was disappointing to see them score only 16 last week against the Packers, they’d previously gone over 30 points in four consecutive contests. We obviously know what the Saints’ offense is capable of doing. Since Drew Brees returned to the lineup, NO has scored 29, 52 and 33 points. That 52 came the last time Alvin Kamara played as he tied a record with six touchdowns. Scoring 33 without him last week was almost as impressive. Kamara has been activated for this Wild Card Game as has WR Thomas. So a slumping Bears defense is now set to face a Saints offense operating at full strength. But that Bears defense won’t be operating at full strength as their best player (LB Smith) has been downgraded to “out.” They are just going to have to hope the offense can continue its average from the L5 weeks, which was 31.2 points/game, tied (with the Saints) for sixth. The teams combined for 49 (with the game winning FG kicked in OT) in the regular season matchup. Five of Chicago’s last six games have gone over 50. Two of the Saints last three went over 60. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER

The Bills haven’t won a playoff game in more than a quarter century, but this year’s team looks like the one that can break that streak. It’s the first time Buffalo has been favored in a playoff game since ‘96 and they come in having outscored their last six opponents by 119 points. They’ve averaged 38.2 points/game during the six-game win streak and just put up 56 last week when we told you to take the Over vs. Miami. (Went Over by themselves). For the Wild Card Round, the Bills draw an Indianapolis team that may not put quite as many points on the board, but the Colts have scored no fewer than 24 in any of the last eight games. This has all the makings of a shootout on Saturday as the Bills are an aggressive offense that likes to pass on first down while the Colts should have success running the ball with Jonathan Taylor, who just went over 250 yards rushing last week. Over the last four weeks, Indy allowed the third most passing yards in the league. The Over was 11-4-1 in Buffalo games during the regular season and that includes 3-1 when the total was 51 or higher. Take the OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

So here’s the situation with this Week 17 matchup from the AFC East. Buffalo can guarantee itself the #2 seed with a win. That would mean at least two home playoff games. The worst they can finish is #3, which would require them losing this game and Pittsburgh (who is playing backups) winning at Cleveland. Miami’s situation is more tenuous as they need to win here just to get into the playoffs. They are not necessarily eliminated with a loss, but that’s a situation they’d obviously like to avoid. Obviously, so much here depends on how long the Bills play their starters. Matt Barkley is the backup QB to Josh Allen. But quietly, the Dolphins have put up 26, 22 and 27 points the past three games. Tua Tagovailoa will have to start here as Ryan Fitzpatrick tested positive for COVID. The Dolphins have gone Over their last five times playing on turf. This was already a low total and continues to get lower. There has been only one Bills game all year where less than 43 total points were scored. Even with backups, we’ll get there. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

Oregon has to be one of the “oddest” Conference Champions in College Football history. The Ducks did not even qualify for the Pac 12 Championship Game, but took Washington’s spot once the Huskies could not play. Then they went out and upset USC 31-24. Their reward is a date with the loser of the Big 12 Championship Game, that being Iowa State, in the Fiesta Bowl. This should be one of the better bowl games and we don’t think it will be as high scoring as the oddsmakers think. Over their last eight games, ISU allowed 24 points or fewer six times. The Cyclones have a strong history of going Under in bowl games. Nine of their last 10 bowls have gone Under including six in a row. The three under current coach Matt Campbell have stayed Under by a total of 40 points. We’ll side with the trends. Speaking of trends, Iowa State is 20-5-1 Under its last 26 games vs. teams with winning records. The Under is also 36-14-2 the last 52 times the ‘Clones have gone off as the betting favorite. Despite the upset win over USC, Oregon QB Tyler Shough did not look particularly good in that game. But the Ducks are coming off two straight strong defensive efforts where they held Cal and USC below 360 total yards each. Play on UNDER

This is a 10* on OVER

So we like BOTH CFP semifinals to go Over the total this year. Ohio State did not exactly face a slew of great offenses in the Big 10 this year. Well, they did face Indiana and gave up 35 points. Clemson is so much better than any previous Buckeyes opponent. Back at full strength, the Tigers have rolled to victories by 35, 35 and 24 points since Trevor Lawrence returned. The fewest points scored in any game by Clemson this season was 34. We project them to eclipse that number here as they are averaging 44.9 and an even higher number when Lawrence plays. But Ohio State also is averaging more than 40 points/game (42.5) and we think they’ll have more offensive success than you might think. The Buckeyes only hope here is to put a bunch of points on the board. The good news is that they are more than capable. They average 529 yards per game and 7.3 yards per play. They scored 38 points or more in every game but the Big 10 Championship when they were facing a stingy Northwestern defense. This will be a much higher scoring game compared to when these teams faced off in last year’s CFP semifinals as this time it’s indoors (Superdome).  Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

Not only do we like the points in the Rose Bowl, we expect there will be plenty of points scored. We already detailed why we think Notre Dame will cover this game. Part of the rationale was that they’ll score plenty of points. Well, there’s no sugarcoating the fact Alabama will as well. This Tide offense may be the best in school history. They are averaging almost 50 points/game and have gone over 50 three straight games. The SEC Championship Game vs. Florida was a 52-46 final. The two times Notre Dame played Clemson, they gave up 34 and 40 points. They are likely to give up at least 41 here as Bama has hit that number in each of its last 10 tries. That means Notre Dame would have to score around 24 to both cover and send this one Over. Considering Alabama didn’t face that many good offenses this year, that should happen for the Irish. Florida was by far the best offensive team the Crimson Tide faced all year and look how many points they gave up in that one. The Over is now 22-8-2 in Alabama’s past 32 neutral site games. The Over is also 4-1 the last five times ND has been off a loss by 20 or more. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on the UNDER

All of a sudden, Chicago has a shot at the playoffs. This after being “left for dead” when a 6-game losing streak had them at 5-7. But back to back wins have turned things around in a dramatic way. They still need to win out and have Arizona lose once. Winning this week should not prove difficult as they are facing Jacksonville, losers of 13 in a row. The Jaguars’ offensive numbers are just terrible. They average only 17.0 points/game at home. So whether it's Gardner Minshew or Mike Glennon starting at quarterback (looking like Glennon) is of little concern. Remember Jacksonville shouldn't want to win as they are line to get the #1 pick. But we wouldn’t dare lay this many points with a Bears team that is just 3-10 ATS its last 13 games as a favorite. While the situation may seem conducive for a big offensive game from Chicago, a 4th straight game from them with 30 or more points would be somewhat unprecedented. You’d have to go back to 1965 to find the last time a Bears team did that. Let’s be careful about anointing Mitchell Trubisky as anything special. The Bears are not a team that can send the game Over themselves, so let’s play Under as the Bears DEFENSE should be the stars Sunday. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

When Tampa Bay went out and signed Tom Brady, making the playoffs became not just a goal, but an expectation. With a win Saturday in Detroit, the 9-5 Buccaneers can officially realize that expectation and start concentrating on a Super Bowl. The 5-9 Lions don’t figure to offer much resistance, especially with interim head coach Darrell Bevell and defensive coordinator Cory Undlin set to miss the game because of COVID. Since Bevell also serves as the offensive coordinator, look for the Lions offense to struggle. QB Stafford has injured ribs and QB coach Sean Ryan will be calling plays, something he’s never done in a NFL game. Expect the Lions, who don’t have much success running the ball to begin with, to have virtually zero success doing so in this game. The Bucs have the best run defense in the league, yielding only 78 yards per game. On the offensive side of the ball, slow starts have been a problem all year for TB. The Lions are 11-5 Under L16 December games. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

We look to make it three straight Overs to open the bowl season. While only the two bowls we’ve played (first two) have gone Over thus far, even last night’s UFC-BYU game featured plenty of scoring (72 total points). The only reason that one didn’t go Over is that it had the highest O/U of any bowl this season. There’s just not much incentive for these teams to play solid defense this time of year. Florida Atlantic should be the latest example. While the Owls only gave up 16.5 points/game in the regular season, it was shredded in the finale for 45 by a terrible Southern Miss squad. Memphis, who is certainly capable of putting up a big number, should do so here in the Montgomery Bowl. They averaged 450 yards/game in the regular season and scored 40 or more points three different times. Interestingly, FAU is 4-0 all-time in bowls while Memphis has lost five straight bowl games. The Tigers definitely should be motivated to come out and put up a lot of points. FAU will score enough too. The Over is 14-5 in Memphis’ L19 non-conf games Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

There was no shortage of scoring in the first bowl game and we expect the same thing in bowl game #2. Our participants in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl are Tulane and Nevada. Tulane was 6-5 in the regular season, covering the spread in six of the last seven games. The lone non-cover was against Tulsa, whom they led 14-0 in the fourth quarter while getting +4.5 from the oddsmakers. The Green Wave were not only 0-2 in overtime games this year, there were also two early season games where they led by 17 or more points and still lost! But the bottom line is they still averaged more than 35 points and that Tulsa loss is the only game since September where they didn’t hit 31. Now onto Nevada, who was once 5-0, but ended up 6-2. The Wolfpack scored 34 or more in half their games. They had 20 at halftime vs. SJSU, but were shockingly shutout after that. If not for that second half blanking, they would have averaged more than 30 points/game this season. Nevada has a good QB in Carson Strong and he definitely catches a break here as the Tulane defense will be without two All-Conference selections. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

Neither the Steelers nor the Bengals have done much scoring lately. Pittsburgh, who was 11-0 but now is 11-2, has not scored more than 19 points in any of its last three games. While a matchup with 2-10-1 Cincinnati certainly seems like a recipe for success, the Steelers simply won’t have to score many points to come out ahead in this one. That’s because their defense - still one of the league’s best - figures to have one of easiest “days at the office” on Monday. The Bengals are starting Ryan Finley at QB tonight. He’s even worse than Bradon Allen, who quite frankly wasn’t very effective himself in filling in for the injured Joe Burrow. In the last five games, Cincinnati has scored just 50 points total, never more than 17 in any one game. How do you think they are going to perform with a third string QB going against the league’s #1 scoring defense? Pittsburgh won’t put up 30 in this game, simply because they “don’t have to.” Play on UNDER

This is a 10* on the OVER

With North Texas involved, it’s very difficult to imagine the Myrtle Beach Bowl NOT being high-scoring. The Mean Green give up over 500 yards and 41 points per game. Six of their nine regular season games went Over the total. It’s a tough bowl assignment here as they’re matched up against an Appalachian State team whose three losses came to teams (Louisiana, Coastal Carolina, Marshall) that are a combined 27-3 SU. The Mountaineers very much deserve to be the biggest favorite in all the bowls, but because they have the worst ATS record (2-9) of all the bowl teams, we can’t justify laying this number. Of course, North Texas hasn’t been very good at the betting window either (0-3 ATS L3), but what they are good at is offense. The Mean Green had the best passing attack in Conference USA and averaged over 35 points and 500 yards per game. But back to the defense, NT has given up a total of 140 points in its last three bowl appearances. Appalachian State will run for a lot of yards in this game, which will easily go Over. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

The Browns played a thriller Monday night, ultimately coming up short against Baltimore by a score of 47-42. It probably won’t be that high scoring again Sunday night, but we still like the Over vs. the Giants. The Browns have scored 83 points themselves the last two games, despite facing two probable playoff teams. So the fact the Giants have gone Under in four straight against winning teams and their last four overall doesn’t mean much to us, even if backup Colt McCoy is forced into a starting role again. Freddie Kitchens, the Browns former head coach, will be calling plays here for the G-Men. That’s interesting. He should know the opponent well. The Browns defense has given up 82 points the last two games. The Giants defense will be playing without its best cornerback, James Bradberry. The Browns are 4-0 Over the last four times they’ve been a road favorite. The Giants are on a 7-3 Over run after scoring 15 points or less their previous game. Play on OVER

AAA