10* NC State/Duke OVER (ELITE 8 TOY)

NC State beat in the Conference Tournament, but it'll be hard for the Wolfpack to beat this Blue Devils side twice in two weeks. So far the Blue Devils have seen all of their postseason games go "under" the number this year, including the 74-69 setback to NC State back on March 14th. Note though that the Blue Devils have seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference loss vs an opponent. The Wolfpack is versatile and can play any style of contest. We're expecting this one to finally be a bit more wide-open; this number is low, the play is the "over!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Creighton/Tennessee (SWEET 16 TOY)

The Blue Jays opened the tournament with a 17-point win over Akron, but hten needed double OT to knock-off No. 11 seed Oregon in the second round. We're expecting Creighton to now come out with "heavy legs" here in the Sweet 16 and to double down defensively after the offensive marathon last time out. Tennessee cruised by St. Peter's by 34 in the opening round of the Tournament, but then it had to hold on for dear life in its four point win over 7-seed Texas in the second. With each of these teams still "reeling" from their Round of 32 wins, this is the type of great "situational" play that we're always on the look out for at this point of the tournament. Considering all of the situational factors pointing to each of these sides being exhausted here on Friday, we're definitely rolling with the "under" as far as the total is concerned in this one!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Texas A&M/Houston (2ND RND. NCAA TOY)

Both teams dominated in their opening round games behind tough defensive play, and we're expecting those trends to continue here. These two teams squared off on December 16h and Houston won 70-66. While we expect another competitive game here as well, we absolutely expect an even lower-scoring defensive "chess match" in this one. Texas A&M averages 75.5 PPG, while allowing 71.2, while Houston averages 73.4 PPG, while allowing a nation-low 56.7. The first game in December went "over" the number, but this one has defensive battle written all over; this number is high, the play is indeed on the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* Charleston/Alabama UNDER (NCAA FIRST RND TOY)

The 27-7 Charleston Cougars are going for their 13th consecutive win, but to do that the 13th seed will have to get by the No. 4 sedd in 21-11 Alabama. The Cougars did win the CAA in beating Stony Brook 82-79, but they didn't cover the 10.5-point spread. The Tide finished fifth in the SEC and lost to the Gators by a score of 102-88 in the quarterfinals of the Conference Tournament. If we delve a little closer into Charleston's numbers though, we find that it finished 88th overall, with a strength of schedule that was ranked 226th in the country. The Tide's weakness this year was their play on the defensive end, but they catch a break here in our estimation. We're expecting a much tighter, and ultimately lower-scoring affair; the play is the "under!"

AAA Sports

10* OVER Drake/Washington State.

We're expecting a wide-open shootout here between No. 10 seed Drake and No. 7 seed Washington State. These teams matchup well. It won't be a cake-walk for Washington State. Both have "played down" at times to the level of their competition, but they've also stepped up their against tougher opponents, as evidenced by their winning seasonal records in Quad 1 games. Washington State has a tough defense, but Drake will be pushing the pace. Look for this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

AAA Sports

10* OVER Grambling/Montanta State.

Two teams looking to advance past the First Four collide on Wednesday night and in our opinion, everything points to a wide-open and much higher-scoring affair than what this O/U line is suggesting. Both 16 seeds. Grambling State finally got past Texas Southern in the SWAC, avenging two-straight losses in the Conference Tourney Championship Game, while Montana State rode some hot 3-point shooting to win its final four games to win the Big Sky Conference Tournament and earn a third-straight NCAA Tournament bid. Coming into the regular season finale they were just 13-17. Momentum is a very real thing and it's a factor in which the oddsmakers often have a difficult time properly quantifying into a line, and that's the case here. Look for each side to push the pace and then look for this total to fly "over" the number before the final horn blares!

AAA Sports

10* OVER Wagner/Howard (TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER)

The winner of this one will have the unenviable matchup of UNC right after, but regardless, these two hopeful 16 seeds have nothing to lose and we're definitely expecting a faster pace. Both teams managed to come together at the right time and win their conference tournaments. The Bisons though have one of the worst defenses in the nation and are notorious in turning the ball over (21.7% of possessions.) With each team pushing the pace like we anticipate, all signs point to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Wisconsin/Illinois (BIG TEN TOURNEY CHAMPIONSHIP)

These teams have played to some high-scoring games to reach the Championship game, but we're finally expecting more of a defensive affair with everything on the line here. Wisconsin managed to knock off No. 1 seed Purdue to reach this for this game for the first time since 2016/17, while Illinois beat Nebraska. These teams did have one game in the regular season, and it was a high-scoring one in the Illini's 91-83 victory, but note that Wisconsin has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in four of its last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference loss vs. an opponent as a favorite. This number is now a little bit TOO high, so the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER SDSU/Utah State.

Quick turn-arounds in these tournaments means that finding edges and angles wherever you can to exploit is the key to success, and as primarily "situational" cappers, this one falls right into our wheelhouse. SDSU finished 23-9, while Utah State was 27-5. They're pretty evenly matched. They split their regular season series 1-1 this year. But after each played to overtime yesterday, to advance to this contest, we're absolutely expecting each team to be fatigued here in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. Look for each to double down defensively after their difficult high-scoring contest yesterday; this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Pitt/UNC (ACC TOURNEY TOY)

Pitt beat Wake Forest 81-69 to advanced to the quarterfinal of the ACC, while UNC beat FSU 92-67. Both games went "over" the number, but we're finally expecting a much tighter, and ultimatley lower-scoring battle here on Friday night. The strength of each side has been on the offensive end all season, and the oddsmakers know that. The public knows that. But now here at this point of the tournament, the value has swung the other way as far as the total is concerned in our opinion (and finally, note that UNC has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in three of its last four off a SU/ATS win and playing with 0 days rest.) This number is high, the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports 

10* UNDER Kent State/Toledo (MAC TOTAL OF YEAR)

This is just a great situational play. Kent finished 15-16, while Toledo was 20-11. Kent finished the season with two straight losses, including an 86-71 setback to Toledo in the finale. Note though that the Flashes have seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss vs. an opponent. Toledo finished with three straight wins and all three victories went "over" the number, but note that's also important as the Rockets have in fact seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. We're expecting a MUCH more defensive battle between these foes here in the rematch; this number is indeed high, the play is the "under!"

AAA Sports

10* OVER Davidson/Fordham (A-10 TOURNEY TOY)

These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but we're expecting a much more wide-open affair this time around finally between Davidson and Fordham. The A-10 Tourney gets going here with 15-16 Davidson facing off against 12-19 Fordham. The Wildcats finished the year by losing five straight. The beat Fordham 68-53 on February 20th, and note that the Rams have seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss in which they were held to 55 or fewer points in. With each team pushing the pace like we suspect, all signs point to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Milwaukee/UNK (Horizon League Tourney TOY)

These teams have been playing to several higher-scoring affairs of late, but we're finally expecting more of a defensive battle here between Milwaukee and Northern Kentucky on Monday night. Northern Kentucky enters averaging 74.8 PPG, while allowing 72.9, while Milwaukee averages 79.5 PPG, while conceding 78.6. Milwaukee finished 19-14 overall, while UNK was 18-14. The Panthers lost 90-72 at Northern Kentucky on January 18th, but then bounced back and won 73-72 at home on February 17th. These two evenly matched sides have played to a couple of high-scoring affairs to reach this point of the tournament, but everything finally points to much more of a defensive battle in our opinion this time around; this number is high, the play is indeed on the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER Gardner Webb/UNC Asheville.

This is a great situational play. Both teams ended the regular season with B2B UNDERS, and they both opened the Tournament with low-scoring victories as well. That's signficant for us to take note of though for two reason. Reason 1: Gardner Webb has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Reason 2: UNC Asheville has seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of its last 11 in the same position. The last time these teams played, Gardner Webb managed the 78-77 victory in late February, and we're expecting an even higher-scoring "shootout" this time around; this number is low, the play is the "over!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER Radford/High Point (BIG SOUTH TOURNEY TOY)

We had a play on Radford in its 67-60 win over SCUS in its opening round of the Big South Conference Tournament. The Highlanders went on to cover the five points, but the total stayed well under the number of 139.5 in that one. Including its final two regular season losses, Radford has now seen the total go "under" in three straight, but that's significant to note as the Highlanders have in fact seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. High Point finished 24-7 and No. 1 in the regular season in the Conference. It's three-game win streak to end the season was snapped in a 74-72 loss at Longwood, but note that High Point has seen the total go "over" the number in three of its last four when playing with five or more days of rest. Expect a much faster pace to this contest and then look for the total to sail well "over" the number before the final horn blares!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Cal State Fullerton/UC Riverside (BIG WEST TOY)

As primarily situational handicappers, this one falls right into our "wheelhouse." These teams are needing a win here and we're expecting that to translate into a defensive battle. There are many reasons to believe it'll be a defensive war instead of a wide-open offensive shootout. UC Riverside averages 69.6 PPG, while CSU Fullerton averages just 67.6. Each team's defense catches a break this week. The Highlanders beat the Titans 81-73 as 1.5-point favorites on the road on February 15th, and note that Cal State Fullerton has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a SU and ATS conference home loss as an underdog vs. an opponent. In our opinion, this one has defensive "war" written all over it; the play is indeed on the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER OKS/Texas (BIG 12 TOM)

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs point to a much tighter, and lower-scoring battle finally here between these BIG 12 opponents on Saturday afternoon in our opinion. Oklahoma State is 12-16 overall, including just 1-7 on the road, while Texas is 18-10 overall, including 12-4 at home. The Cowboys are big underdogs after two straight home losses. OKS has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in five straight, but that's significant for us to take note of as the Cowboys have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in nine of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. Texas is off an upset 81-69 win at Texas Tech as a three-point dog, and note that the Longhorns have seen the total go "under" the number in three of their last four off an upset SU/ATS conference road win as a dog. Texas won't need to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish, so expect this slower-paced affair to stay well "under" once the final horn blares!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER ODU/Georgia Southern.

Overall we love the way this one sets up to be a lower-scoring defensive battle. This one is all about the overall "situation," combined with a couple of strong O/U ATS stat that fully support us here. ODU is 7-23 overall, including only 1-11 on the road. Georgia Southern is 7-23 overall as well, but 5-6 at home. This is a game that each club will feel it has an opportunity to actually win in. Expect this to tranlsate into a defensive affair. Georgia Southern has seen the total go "over" in six straight now, but despite its most recent 83-73 victory over Marshall, note that the Eagles have still seen the total go "under" the number eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row; this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Saint Mary's/Pepperdine (WEST COAST TOM)

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but everything finally points to much more of a defensive affair in this contest finally here at Pepperdine on Thursday night. Just a great situational play overall for a few different reasons. Saint Mary's is 23-6, including a perfect 8-0 on the road. 6-2 ATS. Pepperdine is just 12-18 overall, but 9-7 SU and 8-6 ATS. The Waves play with revenge here after a humbling 103-59 loss at the Gaels in the middle of the month, and note that Pepperdine has seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss vs. an opponent. Saint Mary's is off the 88-62 win over San Diego and it's now seen the total go "over" the number in three straight, which is significant to note as the Gaels have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. The overall situation that each team finds itself in points to the "under" as the correct call as far as the total is concerned in this one!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Youngstown State/Wisconsin Green Bay (HORIZON LEAGUE TOM)

Youngstown State is 20-9, but just 7-7 on the road. Wisconsin Green Bay is 17-11 overall, including 10-3 at home. The Penguins are off an 84-80 OT win over Milwaukee Wisconsin. They've seen the total go "over" the number in seven straight now. They play with revenge after an 84-83 loss to the Phoenix as 11-point favorites at home back on February 10th, and note that Youngstown State has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. The Phoenix though have lost two straight since that upset, both as favorites. They've failed to reach the 60-point plateau in either. We have a hard time seeing them mustering much of an offensive attack this afternoon either; for all the reasons listed above, the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* BC/NC State UNDER (ACC TOM)

We base our picks on many different things. This particular one is just a great "situational" play. We're primarily situational handicappers, and we're also contrarian at heart. This particular play definitely falls right into our "wheel house." Both sides have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs point to a much tighter, and ultimately lower-scoring battle here between these two hungry sides. BC is 15-11 overall, but just 4-5 on the road, while NC State is 16-10 overall, including 11-4 at home. BC is off an 84-76 loss at FSU and it's now seen the total go "over" in three straight. Note thought that the Eagles have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. They lost 84-78 in OT at home to the Wolfpack, and note as well that BC has seen the total go "under" the number in five of its last six in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home conference home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. NC State is off an 87-73 home loss to Syracuse as a seven-point fav, and note that the Wolfpack have seen the total go "under" the number in seven of their last ten after a SU/ATS conference home loss as a favorite. With each side doubling down defensively like we suspect, everything does indeed point to the "under" as the correct call in this one!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Saint Bonaventure/La Salle (A-10 TOY)

This is a great "situational" play, which is backed by some strong supporting O/U ATS trends, and all of these factors collide here and make this play strong enough to become our one and only A-10 TOY. Saint Bonaventure is 16-9 overall, but just 4-4 on the road, while La Salle is 12-14 overall, including 8-6 at home. The Bonnies have won two straight, most recently holding on for an 81-80 OT thriller at home over Davidson. St. Bonaventure has now seen the total fly "over" the number in five straight, but that's signficant for us to take note of here, as the Bonnies have in fact seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of their last ten after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. La Salle just snapped a five-game losing streak with an 82-81 win over UMass as a six-point dog, but note that the Explorers have seen the total go "under" the number in four of their last five off a SU/ATS conference victory as an underdog. The overall situation that each team finds itself coming into this one, combined with the above listed trends, does indeed make the "under" the correct call as far as the total is concerned in our opinion!

AAA Sports

10* OVER FAMU/Alcorn State (SWAC TOM)

These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but we're now finally anticipating much more of a wide-open "shootout" here between these conference rivals on Monday night. FAMU is just 4-19, including only 2-12 on the road, while Alcorn State is only a slightly better 8-17 overall, including 3-3 at home. This is a game that each side will believe that it can actually win, and because of that, we're definitely expecting a faster-paced, wide-open affair. FAMU has lost five straight, but note that the Rattlers have in fact seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 12 after five or more straight losses in a row. They play with revenge as well after a 76-67 home loss to Alcorn State as 2.5-point dogs back in January, and note that the Rattlers have seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of their last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss vs. an opponent. The Braves are coming off three straight SU/ATS victories, with all three games going "under" the number. That's also significant for us to take note of though, as Alcorn State has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last ten after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. This total is low in our opinion, the play is indeed on the "over!"  

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Murray State/Drake (MISSOURI VALLEY TOY)

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games lately, but all signs point to much more of a defensive battle here finally in our opinion. Murray State is 11-15, including 4-6 on the road, while Drake is 21-5, including 13-0 at home. The Racers won't be rolling over here despite being a big dog, as they come in off B2B convincing victories, most recently an 82-72 win over Missouri State (note though that Murray State has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row.) Drake has won three straight, with two of the three games flying "over" the number, but note that the Bulldogs have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in seven of their last ten after three or more SU victories in a row. We think Murray State will do everything it can to slow down the pace of this one; this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Lehigh/Bucknell.

This is a fantastic "situational" play in our estimation. Both sides have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but we feel that this particular battle here tonight will be a much tigher, and ultimatley lower-scoring affair here on Monday. These are two teams in need of a victory and we expect this great sense of competition to translate into a scrappy defensive-contest on the floor. Lehigh is 8-15 overall, including just 3-10 on the road, while Bucknell is a slightly better 10-15 overall, but only 4-7 at home. The Mountain Hawks are off a 94-90 OT win over Lafayette and we believe they'll still be fatigued here, so that definitely plays a big factor here. Bucknell actually upset Lehigh 86-80 on the road back in January, and note that the Mountain Hawks have seen the total go "under" the number in four of their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Look for the rematch to be a lower-scoring "under" once it's all said and done!

AAA Sports

10* OVER Rutgers/Maryland (BIG TEN TOM)

These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring affairs of late, but all signs finally point to much more of a wide-open "shootout" here on Tuesday in our opinion. Rutgers is 11-10, while Maryland is 13-9. The Scarlet Knights just snapped a three-game slide with a huge 69-59 win at Michigan as 4.5-point dogs, and note that Rutgers has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after a SU/ATS conference road win as an underdog. Maryland has seen the total go "under" four straight now after its most recent 63-54 road loss at Michigan State, but note that the Terps have seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of their last five off a SU/ATS conference road loss in which they were held to 55 or fewer points in. With each team pushing the pace like we expect, all signs point to this total flying "over" the number in this one!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Arkansas-Pine Bluff/Prairie View A&M.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs finally point to more of a defensive affair here between these Conference rivals in our opinion on Monday night. Both teams really need a victory here, and we're expecting that sense of competition to translate into a very defensive affair. Akransas-Pine Bluff is 10-11 overall, including just 4-8 on the road, while Prairie View A&M is 8-13, including 4-2 at home. The Panthers have lost three of their last four, including an 80-69 loss here to Texas Southern last time out. While Prairie View A&M has now seen the total go "over" in four straight, note that the Panthers have still seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. The Golden Lions have won two straight. Both games went "over" the number. But with the home side doubling down on the defensive end like we expect, everything points to a much more methodical pace to this one than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe; this number is indeed high, the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Columbia/Harvard (IVY LEAGUE TOM)

Both sides have been involved in some higher-scoring "shootouts" out of late, but all signs finally point to more of a defensive battle here between these conference rivals in our estimation on Friday night. Columbia is 10-7 overall, including 2-5 on the road, while Harvard is 10-7 overall, including 6-3 at home. That's a stark contrast between winning and losing at home for each side. The Lions won't be rolling over here after snapping a three-game slide with an 84-81 win over Penn as 1.5-point dogs (note though that Columbia has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last ten off a SU/ATS conference home win as an underdog.) Harvard has lost three of its last four and it's seen the total go "over" in all three losses. That includes a 78-65 setback to Yale here last time out. With each team doubling down defensively like we're expecting, the "under" does indeed become the savvy call as far as the total is concerned in this one in our opinion!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Tulane/SMU (AAC TOM)

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but we're anticipating much more of a defensive affair here on Thursday night finally between these hungry conference rivals. Tulane is 12-8 overall, but only 2-3 on the road, while SMU is 13-6 overall, including 9-2 at home. The Green Wave won't be lacking for motivation here after back-to-back losses, most recently a 75-71 home setback to Charlotte as 3.5-point favs, but note that Tulane has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last ten off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite. SMU fans can empathize, as their team also enters off back-to-back losses, including a 77-72 loss at Wichita State as 5.5-point favorites last time out. But that's also important for us to take note of hee, as the Mustangs have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 12 off a SU/ATS conference road loss as favorites. With each team doubling down defensively like we expect, all signs do indeed point to the "under" as the savvy call here as far as the total is concerned!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Wyoming/Air Force (ASSASSIN)

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs point to much more of a defensive affair here finally in our opinion between these conference rivals. After their most recent 84-70 loss at Fresno State, the Falcons have now seen the total eclipse the posted number in five straight, but that's significant for us to take note of here, as Air Force has in fact seen the total "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to five of more straight "overs" in a row. Wyoming is off a high-scoring 79-76 OT win over Colorado State and it's now seen the total go "over" the number in three straight. But that's also important for us to take note of, as the Cowboys have seen the total "under" in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. These two teams are in need of a victory here and we're expecting that sense of competition to lead to a very defensive, and ultimately lower-scoring affair; the play is indeed on the "under!"  

AAA Sports

10* UNDER UNLV/SJSU (MW TOY)

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but everything points to much more of a defensive affair this time around in our opinion. UNLV is 9-9 this season, including 2-2 on the road, while SJSU is 8-11 overall, including 5-4 at home. The Spartans though have now seen the total go "over" the number in ten straight after their most recent 95-75 loss to New Mexico and note that SJSU has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last ten after playing to ten or more straight "overs" in a row. UNLV is coming off B2B high-scoring losses as well, most recently a 98-58 setback to Air Force as a 10.5-point favorite. Note though that the Rebels have seen the total go "under" the number in four of their last five off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite in which they were held to 59 or fewer points in. Look for this competitive battle to be a defensive one; this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER UTEP/Louisiana Tech (CONF USA TOY)

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs point to much more of a defensive affair in this one in our opinion. UTEP is 11-8 overall, but 0-5 SU/ATS in true road games. Louisiana Tech is 13-6 overall, and a perfect 9-0 SU at home. The Miners come in off B2B home wins, with both victories flying "over" the number, but in their last road game, a 72-68 loss at FIU, the total stayed "under" the number. We suspect UTEP will once again struggle to find offensive consistency away from friendly confines. Louisiana Tech has won three straight SU/ATS, but note that the Bulldogs have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 12 after three or more SU/ATS victories in a row. The overall situation that each team finds itself coming into this one, combined with the numbers/trends all do indeed point to the "under" as the correct call in our opinion!

AAA Sports

10* Grand Canyon/Seattle UNDER (WAC TOY)

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs finally point to more of a lower-scoring defensive battle in our opinion. Normally the eyes of the basketball world wouldn't pay much attention to a Western Athletic Game, but that won't be the case here, as Grand Canyon enters at 17-1. Seattle is 10-8 overall, but 9-2 at home. The Redhawks won't be rolling over here after three straight road losses (all went "over" the number, and two went to OT.) Note though that Seattle has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. Grand Canyon had seen the total go "under" in three straight before its most recent 78-65 win over Utah Valley. The Antelopes will have their hands full here and we're expecting them to once again double-down on the defensive end; when you add it all up, this number is indeed high in our opinion, so the play is on the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER Tennessee Martin/Morehead State (OHIO VALLEY TOY)

These teams have both been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but all signs point to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later in this particular matchup here on Thursday night. Tennessee Martin is 10-8 and Morehead State is 13-5. The Skyhawks snapped a two-game slide with a win over Little Rock last time out, and despite now having seen the total go "under" in four straight, note that Tennessee Martin has still seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Morehead State won't be taking anything for granted here after its five-game win streak came to an end last time out in a 61-48 loss at SIU Edwardsville. But note that the Eagles have in fact seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 after a SU/ATS loss in which they were held to 49 or fewer points in. This number is indeed a little low when you take into account all of the above listed situational and trend-based factors; the play is the "over!"

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Georgia Tech/Clemson (ACC TOY)

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs finally point to more of a defensive affair here in our opinion. Georgia Tech is 8-8 and Clemson is 12-4. The Yellow Jackets are just 1-4 on the road though. they're coming off an 84-79 loss at Duke. Previous to that they fell 75-68 in OT at home to Notre Dame as 6-point favorites. The Jackets come to town dejected and fatigued. Clemson just snapped a three-game slide with an 89-78 win over BC, but note that the last time these teams met, the Tigers won 72-51 and we're fully expecting a similar final combined score here as well. Both teams have seen the total go "over" the number in four straight, but that fact has only helped in driving this particular O/U line here tonight, a few points higher than it normally would/should be; this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER Washington/UCLA (PAC 12 TOM)

These two teams are in need of a win and we're expecting this faster-paced affair to ultimately eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later. Washington is 10-6 overall, bust just 1-2 on the road, while UCLA is 6-10 overall, including 4-4 at home. The Huskies are slight favs on the road here, as they've snapped a three-game slide by winning their last two, including an 82-67 victory over ASU last time out. We're expecting a similar final combined scored here as well. The Bruins have lost four in a row and they've seen the total go "under" in four straight. Despite their 90-44 loss to Utah last time out though, note that the Bruins have in fact seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 off a conference road loss in which they were held to 99 or fewer points in. With each team pushing the pace like we expect, all signs point to this total eclipsing the posted number; the play is indeed on the "over!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Fairfield/Niagara (MAAC TOY)

This one sets up well from a situational stand point to be a much more defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Fairfield is 9-6 and Niagara is 6-8. The Stags come in on a big winning run, having won eight in a row. They've also seen the total go "over" the number in three straight after their 82-61 victory over Marist last time out (but note that Fairfield has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row.) Niagara has won three straight and it's seen the total go "over" in four of its last five, most recently off a 75-73 win at Iona as a 9.5-point underdog (note though that the Purple Eagles have seen the total go "under" the number in five or their last six off an ATS/SU conference road win as an underdog.) We expect this competitive battle to be defensive in nature; this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER Michigan/Maryland (BIG TEN TOY)

These two teams are in need of a victory. Each has been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but everything finally points to much more of a wide-open offensive contest here on Thursday night in our opinion. Michigan is 6-9, including 2-1 on the road, while Maryland is 9-6, including 8-1 at home. To say the Wolverines are hungry for a win would be an understatement after four straight SU losses and five straight ATS losses (note though that Michigan has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after five or more ATS losses in a row.) Maryland is just 1-2 SU in its last two and it's seen the total go "under" in three straight. As bettors though, that's important for us to take note of as the Terrapins have in fact seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. With each team pushing the pace like we anticipate, all signs point to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

AAA Sports

10* Horizon league TOY on the UNDER UNK/Oakland.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games leading up to this contest, but everything finally points to much more of a defensive battle here on Wednesday night in our opinion. These teams are evenly matched and we're expecting a war until the end. UNK is 8-8 and Oakland is 9-8. The Norse have lost three of their last four, including a heart-breaking 88-85 OT loss at Cleveland State just two nights ago. We believe that fatigue will indeed be a factor here. Oakland has won three straight and it's seen the total go "over" in three straight as well, which is significant to note as well as the Grizzlies have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. Expect this tight battle to be a very low-scoring defensive one; the play is the "under!"

AAA Sports

10* Santa Clara/Peppderine OVER (WEST COAST TOY)

This is a great situational play in our opinion. Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but the overall situation that each finds itself coming into this one, combined with the numbers/trends all finally point to a much higher-scoring offensive affair this time around. Santa Clara is 10-6 and Pepperdine is 7-9. Santa Clara is off the 68-57 road win at Loyola Marymount as a 2-point dog, but note that the Broncos have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten off an upset road win as an underdog in which they held their opponent to 59 or fewer points in. Pepperdine had won two in a row before an 86-60 loss at Gonzaga last time out. They fell 91-82 to Santa Clara in this game last year and we're expecting a similar final combined score here as well; this number is low, the play is the "over!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER CC/UL Lafayette (SUNBELT TOM)

Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but all signs point to a much higher-scoring affair here finally in our opinion. Coastal Carolina won't be lacking for motivation here after starting the year 4-9. The Chanticleers comes in off a rare 71-63 win at Texas State as 8.5-point dogs and we're fully expecting them to keep that offensive momentum carried over here. UL Lafayette is 7-7 after back-to-back losses as an underdog. The last time the Cajuns plays CC, UL Lafayette stumbled and lost 77-76 as a 3.5-point favorite. We're expecting another tight and competitive battle here, but one that also flies "over" the number before it's all said and done!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Charleston/Hofstra (CAA TOY)

Charleston is 9-4 and Hofstra is 7-6. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but from a situational stand point, this one now here on Thursday finally sets up as more of a defensive affair in our opinion. The Cougars enter off five straight victories and they've seen the total go "over" in six straight, but despite their 96-59 win over Montreat College last time out, the Cougars have still seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. The Pride have lost four of their last five and the last thing they'll want to do is to turn this into a shootout, instead they'll look to control the pace. When you add up all of the above factors, everything points to a much more defensive affair than what this O/U line is suggesting; this number is indeed high, the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER Xavier/Villanova (BIG EAST TOY)

Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring contests of late, but in our opinion everything finally points to more of a wide-open offensive battle between these Big East rivals. Xaiver is 7-6 overall, while Villanova is 9-4. The Musketeers have gone 3-1 in their last four and they've seen the total go "under" in three straight after their most recent 74-54 win over Seton Hall, but note that the Musketeers have in fact seen the total go "over" in eight of their last 11 after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Villanova is 3-2 SU in its last five, but it's seen the total go "under" in five straight after its most recent 84-48 win at DePaul, but that's significant to note for a couple of reasons, as the Wildcats have seen the total go "over" the number in three of their last four off a SU/ATS road conference road win in which they held their opponent to 49 or fewer points in and also in eight of their last 11 after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. We base our picks on many different things, and this particular one is a great situational play that's backed by very strong trends in our opinion; this number is low, the play is the "over!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER North Alabama/Texas Tech.

Here's a great "situational" play. We're fully expecting Texas Tech to go up early, and then to take the foot off the gas as it plays its final "tune-up" game before the conference schedule. The Red Raiders are 10-2 overall and 7-0 at home. Texas Tech enters on a five game unbeaten streak, but that is in fact significant to note here, as the Red Raiders have seen the total go "under" the number in three of their last four after five or more straight SU victories in a row. North Alabama is 6-7, including a terrible 1-6 on the road. It's coming off back-to-back losses, failing to top 68 points in either game. We have a hard time seeing the offensively-challenged Lions even reaching 60 in this one though vs. this difficult Red Raiders' defense; this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER Washington/Utah (PAC TOY)

Washington enters 8-4 overall and 0-1 in Pac 12 action, while Utah is 10-2 and 1-0. Washington lost its conference opener by a score of 73-69, and clearly it won't be happy about that sub-par offensive performance. Note though that the Huskies do have a notable 78-73 win over Gonzaga this year already. Utah destroyed Washington State by 22 points in its conference opener and we're expecting it to push the pace here as well in this potentially difficult matchup. The bottom line here though is that each team really likes to push the ball, as each ranks in the Top 100 in adjusted tempo. Each also has multiple double-digit scoring forwards. For all the reasons listed above, look for this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Kent/Saint Mary's (NON-CONF TOY)

We're anticipating a much more defensive battle between these two teams than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Kent is a big underdog here, but it won't be rolling over. The Golden Flashes are 7-4 overall, including 1-1 in true road games, while the Gaels are 8-6 overall, including 6-3 at home. Kent has seen the total go "over" in five straight now, but that's important for us to take note of as the Golden Flashes have in fact seen the total go "under" in three of their last four after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. Saint Mary's five-game win streak came to an end in a 69-64 loss to Missouri State as a 13.5-point favorite, and that's also significant to note as the Gaels have seen the total go "under" in seven of their last ten off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite. This number is a little high, the play is indeed on the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Oakland/Cleveland State (Horizon League TOM)

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games coming into this conference contest, but we're finally expecting more of a defensive affair, as the overall situation that each finds itself coming into this one, combined with the numbers/trends all point to this total ultimately staying well "under" the number once it's all said and done in our opinion. Oakland is 6-7 and Cleveland State is 8-5. The Grizzlies are just 3-4 on the road, while the Vikings are 7-0 at home. Oakland has seen the total go "over" in three straight, but note that the Grizzlies have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. Cleveland State has also seen the total go "over" in three straight, but note that the Vikings have seen the total go "under" in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row; this number is high, the play is indeed on the "under!" 

AAA Sports 

10* UNDER Iowa/Purdue (BIG TEN TOM)

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games to open the season, but we're expecting a much more defensive affair here on Monday. Iowa is 5-2 and Purdue is 7-1. Purdue is coming off its first loss of the year in a 92-88 loss in OT vs. Northwestern on Friday and we're expecting it to be a bit fatigued here, and to double down defensively. The Hawkeyes are off the high-scoring 103-78 win over North Florida, but with the home side looking to control the pace of this one after the loss last time out, everything points to this being much more of a defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe with this large total; this number is indeed high, the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER Utah Valley/UAB (OVER).

This is the semi-finals of the NIT. Utah Valley got by Cincinnati 74-68 on Wednesday to advance. Utah Valley's strength is its depth, as it has four players averaging double figures in scoring. Overall it averages 76.9 PPG. The Blazers reached this point by beating Vanderbilt. UAB plays at an even faster pace though and averages 81.4 PPG. These teams have been playing to lower-scoring games throughout the playoffs, but that fact has only helped in driving today's total a few points lower than it normally would/should be; they play is indeed on the OVER.

AAA Sports

10* OVER Creighton/SDSU (TOP TOTAL)

I am going to be very succinct with my analysis throughout the NCAA Tournament. SDSUN is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS so far in the postseason this year. With the big upset win over Alabama, the Aztecs have also seen the total go "under" in six straight. This fact though has only helped in pushing this Elite 8 total a few points lower than it should be in my opinion. Creighton exploded for an 86-75 win and cover over Princeton in its last outing, and the Bluejays have now posted 171 combined points over their last two games. I expect a faster-paced affair here finally; this number is low, the play is indeed on the "over!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER UConn/Gonzaga (ELITE 8 TOY)

I'm going to be very succinct with my analysis throughout the NCAA Tournament. Both teams have been playing to several high-scoring affairs, but I believe this Elite 8 game finally sets up as more of a defensive one. This is a really high total for an Elite 8 game. In fact, this is the highest total that has been attached to a UConn game since January 25th at Xavier. UConn doesn't play at a fast pace either, ranked 211st in tempo. Both teams have plenty of big men and I'm expecting plenty of "half-court sets" while on offense. When you take all of these factors into account, the play is indeed on the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER FAU/Tennessee (SWEET 16 TOY)

Two really good defensive teams here that play at methodical paces, but I still think this O/U line is way too low. FAU is 33-3 this year, including 11-3 on the road. After playing to four straight post-season "unders," the Owls finally played to an "over" in their Round of 32 win over FDU by a score of 78-70. I think FAU keeps the offensive momentum rolling here. The 70 points allowed though is a concern if you're an Owls bettor though. Tennessee has seen the first two games of its tournament go "under" the number, including in its 65-52 victory over Duke last time out, but that fact has only helped in driving today's total a few points lower than it normally would/should be in my opinion. With a few days off to rest between rounds, expect these offenses to benefit; this number is low, the play is the "over!"

AAA Sports

10* OVER Fairleigh Dickinson/FAU (ULTIMATE)

FAU is now 32-3, and it's a 13.5-point favorite in this one. Fairleigh Dickinson finished 21-15. Over its past ten games FAU has averaged 2.3 points more per game than its season average. Note that together these two teams combined for 156 points per game, which is at least five points higher than this total. I'm finally expecting a faster-paced game and because of that, the play is the "over"!  

AAA Sports 

10* OVER MSU/Marquette (ASSASSIN)

I am going to be very succinct with my analysis throughout the College Basketball Tournaments. Michigan State averages 70.6 PPG, while allowing 67.4. Marquette averages 81 PPG, while allowing 71.3. Expect fatigue to play a key part in breaking down the defensive play for each side, and expect this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

AAA Sports

10* OVER Furman/SDSU (2ND ROUND TOY)

I'm going to be very succinct with my analysis during the NCAA tournament. Furman I think rides its thrilling upset of No. 4 seed Virginia here. SDSU enters off the 63-57 win over COC. Furman's offense is ranked 88th overall and 32nd nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Aztecs strength is their defense (ranked 16th overall), but that fact has only helped in driving this particular total a few points lower than it normally would/should be, as note that SDSU has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in nine straight dating back to the regular season. That's just too many "unders" here, and the value has firmly swung the other way here in the second round of the NCAA Tournament; the play is the "over!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER South Carolina Upstate/Indiana State.

South Carolina Upstate is 16-15, while Indiana State is 22-12. The Sycamores average 79.4 PPG, but the Spartans are allowing just 69.6. The Spartans average only 68.9 PPG, while the Sycamores concede just 69.3. These teams are evenly matched, but I expect this contest to have a "feeling out" period at the start, and because of that, I think this O/U line is too high; the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

9* UNDER SE Missouri State/Texas A&M CC (POWER TOTAL)

These teams meet at the UD Arena. SE Missouri State is lucky to be here. It finished 19-16 this year. It beat Lindenwood, Tennessee State and Morehead State in the conference tourney, and then on March 4th it beat Tennessee Tech in the championship game by a score of 89-82 in OT. Can anyone say "letdown" spot? Texas A&M CC finished a more respectable 21-10 in the regular season. The Islanders secured the 75-71 win over Northwestern State in the Southland Tourney Title game. Previous to that they held McNeese State to just 63 points. I think the Redhawks come back down to Earth here in the "bright lights." Look for this game to be a much more defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe; the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports 

10* OVER Texas A&M/Alabama (SEC TOURNEY TOY)

The Aggies are coming off an 87-75 win over Vanderbilt to advance to the SEC Tournament Championship Game. Overall Texas A&M averages 73.1 PPG, while allowing 65.4. Alabama has seen the first two games of its tournament run go "under" the number, including in its most recent 72-61 victory over Missouri. The Tide gave up just 29 first half points. They average 82.8 PPG< while allowing 69.5. We have two really good defenses here, but with Alabama pushing the pace from the start, I'm expecting this faster-pace to result in a higher-scoring affair, especially if the Aggies are forced to play from behind early. Either way, I expect the Championship game to sail "over" the posted number as the game comes down the stretch!

AAA Sports

10* OVER Texas/Kansas (BIG 12 TOURNEY TOY)

Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, including in their Tournament games to reach this point, but that fact has only helped in driving this total a few points higher that it normally would/should be. Texas has now seen the total go "under" in five straight after wins over Oklahoma State and TCU to advance. Note though that Texas has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last ten after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. Texas beat Kansas 75-59 in the final regular season game of the year, and that's also important to take note of here, as the Jayhawks have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference loss against an opponet. This number is a little low, the play is the "over!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER Fordham/Dayton (A-10 TOM)

For a number of different reasons, I look for this one to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later. Fordham advanced by beating La Salle 69-61 on Thursday. The total went "under" the number in that one, but I'm expecting a shootout here. The Rams actually play with revenge after falling 82-58 to Dayton on January 10th at home as a 7.5 point underdog, and that's significant to note here, because the Rams have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss against an opponent. The Flyers have now seen the total go "under" the number in three straight aftre their 60-54 first round win over St. Joe's. Note though that Dayton has seen the total go "over" the number in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. The stage is set for an efficient, higher-scoring "over" in the rematch!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Ohio/Toledo (MAC TOURNEY TOY)

No need to overthink this one for me. I love the way this one sets up to be a bit more of a defensive affair. Ohio is coming of a 90-70 win over Ball State to advance to the second round of the MAC Tournament and while the total went "over" the number, we can expect more of a defensive affair here. Ohio does play with revenge after falling 90-75 to Toledo on January 17th, but I don't see the Bobcats getting that many points again here. Toledo crushed Miami Ohio 91-75 yesterday and its now seen the total go "over" the number in five straight. That's significant for us to take note of though, as Toledo has seen the total go "under" the number in five of its last six after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. Expect fatigue to also play a factor here; this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Temple/Cincinnati (AAC TOURNEY TOY)

It's the opener of the AAC Tournament, and while these teams played to a higher-scoring "over" in their most recent matchup, I believe that everything points to a much more defensive affair here now that the Conference Tournament is here. Temple finished l6-15, while Cincinnati was 20-11. The Owls fell 88-83 in OT to the Bearcats as nine-point dogs on the road in February. That's significant to note here because Temple has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a SU conference loss vs. an opponent. Cincinnati saw eight of its final nine regular season games go "over" the number, but that fact has only helped in driving this tournament total a few points higher than it normally would/should be. With the Owls looking to slow the tempo of this one down throughout, I believe the rematch here definitely points to a more defensive battle this time around; the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER CSU/SDSU (MW TOURNEY TOY)

No need to overthink this one. This is a great situational play. Colorado State is just 14-17. It's coming off a hard-fouth 67-65 win over Fresno State last night to advance here to the second round, the total went "under" the number in that one. SDSU was 24-6 in the regular season and received a first round bye. It comes in having seen the total go "under" the number in five straight. Note though that the Aztecs have seen the total go "over" the number in five of their last six after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. CSU plays with revenge after a 77-58 loss to SDSU on the road in ate February and while that total went "under" the number as well, everything finally points to a more of a wide-open "shootout" here now that the conference tournament is here; the play is the "over!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Minnesota/Nebraska (BIG TEN TOURNEY TOY)

Both teams have played to several higher-scoring games to close out the regular season, but that fact has only helped in driving this Tournament total a few points higher than it normally would/should be. Minnesota stumbled down the stretch, finishing 8-21 overal. It saw the total go "over" the number in seven straight games to close out the regular season. It lost both games to Nebraska this season, and each contest went "over" the number as well. Note though that the Gophers have seen the total go "under" the number in four of their last five in trying to avenge two straight losses against a conference opponent. Nebraska finished 16-15. It won five of its last six games. It also saw the total go "over" the number in seven straight games to close out the year. With a couple days off to prepare for the conference tournament, I expect each team to focus a bit more on the defensive end this evening; this total is high, the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER Wake/Syracuse (ACC TOURNEY TOY) 

These teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but I expect a more wide-open and faster-paced affair here on Wednesday afternoon, and because of that I expect this total to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later. Wake stumbled down the stretch of the regular season, losing four of its last five. The Demon Deacons lost 72-63 at Syracuse as a one-point favorite on March 4th, the final game of the year. Wake has seen the total go "under" the number in three straight, but note that the Demon Deacons have seen the total go "over" in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. The Deacons have also seen the total go "over" the number in six of their last eight in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss against an opponet. Syracuse broke a four-game slide in the win over Wake Forest. Previous to that the Orange had seen the total go "over" the number in four straight. While that last game went "under" between these teams, expect a more efficient, faster-paced contest here in the Conference Tournament to lead to a higher-scoring final combined score; the play is the "over!"

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Marist/Manhattan (MAAC TOURNEY TOY)

I love the way this one sets up to be a lower-scoring defensive battle. Marist comes into the Tournament off B2B losses to end the year. It also saw the total go "over" the number in three straight to end the season, which is significant to note, as the Red Foxes have seen the total go "under" the number in four of their last five after seeing the total go "over" in three or more straight contests. Manhattan though plays with revenge after an 81-58 setback to Marist at home as a four point dog on February 24th. The total in that one snuck "over" the number, but I'm expecting a much more defensive battle here, as note that the Jaspers have seen the total go "under" the number in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss against an opponent. Two teams that underachieved in the regular season are out for redemption in the Conference Tournament and all signs (in my opinion), point to a defensive battle; the play is indeed on the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* Under Loyola Chicago/St. Joe's (A-10 TOURNEY TOY)

These two teams ended the regular season playing to several higher-scoring games, and they also played to a high-scoring one between each other over that span, but I'm anticipating a much more defensive affair here now that the Conference Tournament is here. Loyola Chicago finished 10-20. It won its finaly game of the regular eason, 76-73 over La Salle. The Ramblers saw the total go "over" the number in three straight to end the season, and that's significant to note, as Loyola Chicago has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. The Ramblers play with revenge as well after falling 83-71 to ST. Joe's as a 3.5-point favorite at home on February 8th. But once again, that's important for us to note as the Ramblers have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Saint Joseph's finished 14-16. It saw the total go "over" the number in five straight to end the regular season, which is noteworthy as well, as the Hawks have seen the total go "under" in six of their last eight after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. The situation and the numbers all point to the "under" as the correct call in this one!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER San Fran/Gonzaga (WEST-COAST TOURNEY TOY)

Everyone is just hammering the over for the most part here, but I'm going the other way, as I see tremendous value on this being more of a lower-scoring defensive battle. San Fran has already had to get through two rounds to get to this point, beating Pacific 80-63 and then Santa Clara 93-87 in OT. The Dons play with revenge after falling 99-81 to the Bulldogs back in February. And as for Gonzaga, will rest lead to rust here after getting a "double bye?" I think it will. After having seen the total go "over" the number in eight straight games to end the season, I believe this Tournament total is now a few points higher than it normally would/should be; the play is the "under!"

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Chattanooga/Wofford (SOUTHERN TOY)

Chattanooga has won the first two rounds to advance here to face Wofford in the Southern Tournament. While the Mocs both won and covered in each, both of those contests went well "over" the number. Now with tthe stiff competition here, I'm expecting a much more defensive affair finally. Wofford got by UNCG 67-66 yesterday in a lower-scoring defensive battle, and that's what Im predicting here as well. While their last game against each other in the regular season went "over" the number, expect the rematch here in the conference tournament to be tighter, and ultimatley lower-scoring; this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER North Dakota/Denver (SUMMIT TOURNEY TOY)

Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late and the last time these teams got together the total flew "over" the posted number, but now finally here in the conference Tournament, I expect a more defensive battle. North Dakota comes into the Tournament at 12-19. It went 2-1 in its final three games, but it's seen the total go "over" in three straight. That's significant to note here though for us because the Fighting Hawks have seen the total go "under" the number four of their last five after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. North Dakota beat Denver by a score of 86-63 as a three-point favorite on February 9th and the total went "over" the number of 146. The Pioneers finished 15-16. Note that they've seen the total go "under" the number in five of their last six in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference loss against an opponent. Look for this neutral site contest to finally produce more of a defensive affair as well; the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER Wagner/Sacred Heart.

These teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but now that the conference tournament is here, I'm expecting each to push the pace, as I look for this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. Wagner has seen the total go "under" in four straight. It's coming in off B2B victories. It plays with revenge though after a 65-56 loss to Sacred Heart on Feburay 2nd, and that's important for us to take note of here, as the Seahawks have in fact seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge a conference loss against an opponent in which they were held to 59 or less points in. The Pioneers enter the tourney having seen the total go "under" in three straight, and that's significant to note here as wel, as Sacred Heart has seen the total go "over" in five of its last seven after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. This number is now too low, the play is the "over!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Belmont/Northern Iowa (MISSOURI VALLEY TOW)

Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, including in one against each other earlier in the year, but I expect those trends to finally end here this evening. Belmont is 20-10, but just 6-7 on the road, while Northern Iowa is 13-16 overall, but 8-7 at home. The Bruins beat the Panthers by a score of 76-72 in mid-January, and thats significant to note here, because Northern Iowa has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last ten in trying to avenge a SU conference road loss against an opponent. Look for a hard-fought, but ultimately lower-scoring battle in this one; the play is the "under!"

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10* OVER Xavier/Seton Hall (BIG EAST TOY)

I love the way this end of season matchup sets up to be more of a competitive defensive affair, rather than a high-scoring "shootout." Xavier is 20-8, but just a pedestrian 5-4 on the road, while Seton Hall is 16-12, but a much more respectable 10-4 in front of the home town crowd. The Pirates play with revenge after a 73-70 loss at Xavier as eight-point underdogs on December 20th, which is significant to note, as Seton Hall has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a SU road loss against an opponent. Xavier is No. 15 in the country, but it'll be desperate to turn things around before the start of the conference tournament, having lost three of its last four, including a tight 64-63 setback to Villanova as a 4.5-point favorite last time out. I have every reason to believe that this will be a faster-paced "shootout," rather than a "clamp-down" defensive affair; the play is the "under!"

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10* Mississippi Valley State/Prairie View A&M UNDER (SWAC TOY)

The last time these teams played against each other, it ended up being a lower-scoring defensive affair, and for a number of different reasons, that's exactly what I'm expecting in the rematch in this one as well. Prairie View has now seen the total go "over" the number in three straight ater an 82-71 win over Arkansas Pine Bluff in its last outing. Note though that the Panthers have seen the total go "under" the number in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. Mississippi Valley State has seen the total go "over" the number in seven straight now after its 80-62 loss at Texas Southern in its last outing. The Delta Devils also play with revenge here after the 67-60 loss to Prairie View A&M back on January 7th. However, note that the Delta Devils have seen the total go "under" the number in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge a conference home loss vs. an opponent. For all the reasons listed above, the play is the "under!"

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10* UNDER Niagara/Marist (MAAC TOY)

These teams played to a higher-scoring game earlier in the season, but I expect the rematch to be a tigher, and ultimately lower-scoring contest. Marist won by a score of 66-64 as a 4.5-point underdog back on January 15th. The total snuck "over" the number of 123.5 in that one. Note though that Niagara has seen the total go "under" the number in five of its last six in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. The Purple Eagles only average 65 PPG, while conceding just 58. Marist averages only 62.3 PPG, while allowing 66.7. I don't expect either team to reach its seasonal offensive average in the re-match today, so the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Lafayette/Army (PATRIOT LEAGUE TOY)

This one checks all the boxes to be a lower-scoring "under" in the end. Lafayette and Army have already played once this year, and the Lafayette Leopards got killed 82-65 back on January 2nd as a one-point favorite. The total went "over" the number of 133.5 in that one, but note that Lafayette has seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite against an opponent. Lafayette is just 9-19 overall, including only 4-13 on the road though. The Army Black Knights are coming in off back-to-back losses. They've been trading high-scoring games with lower-scoring ones over their last six outings, and I expect this pattern to continue here after a 93-86 loss at Colgate in their last outing. I look for the home side to slow this one down, and as a result, everything points to this one staying "under" the number!

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10* Florida/Arkansas UNDER (SEC TOY)

The regular season is amazingly winding down. FLorida is 14-12 overall this season, including just 3-5 on the road. Arkansas is ranked No. 25 in the country at 17-9 overall and 11-2 at home. Florida only averages 71.8 PPG, while allowing just 66.9. Arkansas isn't the highest scoring team either, averaging 73.8 PPG, while alloiwng just 65.6. Arkansas is of B2B SU/ATS losses. It beat Florida 82-74 last season, but while I'm anticipating another highly competitive battle this time, I'm definitely expecting a much lower-scoring final outcome. Florida has seen the total go "over" the number in four straight, but we can expect this end of season conference battle to go well under the number; and that's the play, play on the "under!" 

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10* OVER EMU/Kent (MAC TOW)

This one sets up really well to be higher-scoring game from a few different situational stand points. Eastern Michigan is just 6-20, including l2-10 on the road. It has no chance here whatsoever. The Eagles actually average a healthy 73.5 points per game, but they've been downright terrible on the defensive end in conceding 81.7 PPG. Kent averages 75.2 and I look for the 21-5 Golden Flashes to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish in this one. Kent only allows 63.9 points per game, but in what I expect to be a really wide-open and faster-paced affair, I am or sure looking for this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later. And that's how I envision this game unfolding. Look for Kent to have zero mercy here as it runs up the score, taking advantage of home court as the season starts to wind down; the play is the "over!" 

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10* FAU/MTSU UNDER (CONF. USA TOY)

I base my picks on many different things, but I don't follow any single handicapping methodology and ultimately I feel that being flexible with my approach is the best way to secure profits over the short, mid and long-term. With that in mind, this particular play really sets up well from two different angles, from a situtational angle, but it also has some key ATS trends backing it. FAU is 24-2 and rolling towards the conference tournament. The Owls average 78 PPG, while allowing just 65.5. MTSU has now seen the total go "over" the number in six straight, and that's important to note here, as the Blue Raiders have seen the total go "under" the number in ten of their last 13 after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. MTSU also plays with revenge here after an 85-67 loss at FAU in January, which is also important to note, as the Blue Raiders have seen the total go "under" the number in four of their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss against an opponent. Expect MTSU to keep the pressure on FAU, but for that to ultimately translate into a lower-scoring defensive battle; the play is the "under!"

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10* UNDER Wichita State/Temple (AAC TOM)

This one sets up well to be a lower-scoring defensive battle from a situational stand point. These are two teams in dire need of a victory here. Wichita State is 13-12, including 5-3 on the road, while Temple is 14-12, including 7-6 at home. The Shockers have played to ten straight "overs," and I believe that fact has now pushed tonight's Over/Under line a few points higher than it normally would/should be. Off a tight 91-89 OT win over SMU, I'm expecting a much slower-pace finally here from the Shockers. Temple has seen the total go "over" in five straight, while also losing three in a row, but SU and ATS. Note though that the Owls have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 11 afte rplaying to five or more straight "overs" in a row. Each team has taken a step back this year, but look for this highly competitive affair to finally produce a lower-scoring "under!" 

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10* UNDER UC Irvine/UC Santa Barbara (BIG WEST TOM)

Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. When these teams played in January, the total also went "over" the number in the Gauchos 73-65 victory at the Anteaters. Note though that UC Irvine has seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite to an opponent. UC Santa Barbara has now seen the total go "over" the number in six straight games, but that's also significant for us to note, as the Gauchos have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. UC Irvine has actually been trading high-scoring games with low-scoring ones over its last six games, and coming off an 83-64 win over UC Riverside, I expect this pattern to continue here. Two really good teams, but expect this competitive atmosphere to produce a very tight, and ultimately lower-scoring "under!" 

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10* UNDER SIU/Valpo (BLOOD-BATH)

Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. SIU has seen the total go "over" in three straight (note though that the Salukis have seen the total go "under" in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row.) iThe last was an 82-59 loss at Drake. SIU is 19-8, but it only averages 66.4 PPG, ranked among the best on the defensive end in many statistical categories. SIU beat Valpo 77-55 at home back on January 30th and the total went "over" the number of 123.5 in that one. However, today's total is much higher, and it's now a little too high in my opinion. Valpo has also seen the total go "under" the number in four of its last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss vs. an opponent. For all the reasons listed above, the play is indeed on the "under!" 

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10* UNDER WVU/Baylor (TOW)

Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end here in what I anticpate will be a competitive, but ultimlately lower-scoring defensive battle. WVU is just 2-6 on the road. It's coming off a 94-60 loss at Texas. I think the Mountaineers will struggle to score here on the road as well in this difficult venue. Note as well that WVU has seen the total to "over" the number in five straight, which is indeed signifciant to note, as the Mountaineers have seen the total go "under" the number in four of their last five after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. Baylor is 12-2 a thome. It comes in off three straight SU/ATS victories in a row. They're coming off a 72-68 win at TCU and I expect another strong defensive performance here as well at home; this number is a little high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Washington/Washington State (PAC 12 TOY)

This one sets up really well to be a very defensive affair. Washington is 13-12 overall this year, but just 1-7 on the road. Washington State is only 10-15 this season, but it's 7-3 at home. An interesting matchup, but one that screams defensive battle to me. Washington has lost three straight, and that's important to note here, because the Huskies have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in four of their last five after three or more straight losses in a row. Washington State has lost two straight on the road. It's seen the total go "over" the number in three straight, and that's also significant for us to note here, as the Cougars have seen the total go "under" the number in five of their last six after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. Washington State averages 67.4 PPG, while Washington averages only 69.7. Expect a tight, lower-scoring defensive battle; the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Kent/Buffalo (MAC TOM)

Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end here on Friday. Kent is 19-5, but is just 6-5 on the road. Buffalo is only 12-12, but it's a much more respectable 9-3 at home. Kent averages 75.1 PPG, while Buffalo averages 80.2. The last time these teams played though, Kent controlled the action in the 74-68 victory in late January, the total staying well "under" the posted number of 151.5. Expect a similar, lower-scoring defensive battle here as well; the play is the "under!"

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10* UNDER Texas Tech/Oklahoma State.

I like the way this one sets up to be a defensive battle. Texas Tech is 2-1 in its last three, but it's coming off an 89-62 loss at Baylor. The Red Raiders have seen the total go "over" the number in three straight, but note that they've seen the total go "under" in eight of their last 11 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. Oklahoma State has won three straight, but SU and ATS. Most recently it was a 79-73 victory over TCU. The Cowboys have now seen the total go "over" in four straight. This is the first meeting of the year between these schools, but last March when they faced off, Oklahoma State won by a score of 52-51. The overall situation, combined with the above listed trends make the "under" the correct call in this one!

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10* OVER JMU/ODU (SUN BELT TOM)

James Madison is 15-8, while ODU is 13-9. These are two teams in need of a victory here, and I expect this competitive like atmosphere to produce a much higher final combined score than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. James Madison actually averages 82.9 PPG, and it has seven players averaging between 7.9 and 13 PPG. ODU averages 67.5, but after playing to seven straight "unders," I feel this O/U line is now just a bit too low for the home side, as note that the Monarchs have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. This number is a little low, the play is the "over!"

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10* UNDER Illinois Chicago/Illinois State.

A couple of 9-14 bottom feeders collide here in the Missouri Valley Conference on Wednesday night and in my opinion, I expect points to be at a premium. Each side has played to several higher-scoring games of late, but we can expect those trends to end here. The Flames only average 67 PPG, while allowing 70.7. They catch a break here today on the defensive end facing Illinois State, which averages just 66.2 PPG, while allowing 68.6. When these teams faced off back on December 28th, it was UIC which came away with the 55-51 win as a one-point favorite. Look for these hungry and evenly matched teams to play to a similar, lower-scoring "under" here as well!

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10* UNDER Northwestern/Iowa (BIG TEN TOY)

Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting a much more defensive affair this evening. Both teams have done decently to this point. Northwestern is 15-5, while Iowa is 13-8. The Wildcats enter on a three-game win skein. Most recently they beat Minnesota by a score of 81-61. I'm expecting a similar final combined score here as well, as Northwestern only averages 69.8 PPG, but makes up for it on the defensive end, holding opponents to an effective field goal percentage of 46.8 percent, ranked 45th. So expect the visitors to slow this one down at all costs. Iowa averages 81.3 PPG, but it's been trading high-scoring "overs" with low-scoring "unders" over its last six games, and off a 93-82 home win over Rutgers last time out, all signs point to this pattern continuing. Expect a more methodical pace here; the play is indeed on the "under!" 

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10* UNDER IUPUI/Cleveland State (HORIZON LEAGUE TOY)

Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. IUPUI is just 3-19 after its latest 81-75 loss at Purdue Fort Wayne. It only averages 63.1 PPG, but somehow it's seen the total go "over" in four straight. Note though that IUPUI has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. It plays with revenge here after an 89-54 loss at home to Cleveland State two weeks ago. The Vikings are 13-9 after a 79-74 win over Purdue Fort Wayne. Despite that victory, note though that Cleveland State still only averages just 70 PPG. I'm expecting a much more defensive affair here in the rematch; this number is a little high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER CSU Bakersfield/Hawaii (BIG WEST TOY)

Two teams on different ends of the spectrum. CSU Bakersfield is 6-13, and Hawaii is 15-6. The Roadrunners are off a 79-58 home loss to UC Davis, and I think they'll struggle to reach that many points here on the road. Note that they average 58.3 PPG. Hawaii only averages 68. The Warriors are coming off a tight 65-64 home loss to UC Santa Barbara. These two teams play at a couple of the slowest paces in the nation. The fact of the matter is that the Roadrunners haven't posted more than 58 points in six straight games. Expect a slower-paced defensive affair, one that falls well "under" the number once the final buzzer sounds!

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10* OVER Manhattan/Niagara (ASSASSIN)

I like the way this one sets up to be an offensive contest. Each team has been playing to several "unders" of late, but that's only now helped in contributing to this O/U line being a few points lower than it normally would/should be. When these teams played on January 8th, Manhattan upset Niagara by a score of 64-59 as a 3.5-point underdog. The total in that contest stayed "under" the postd number of 128, but note that Niagara has seen the total go "over" the number in ten of its last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss as a favorite against an opponent. Look for the home side to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish, and then expect this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

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10* UNDER Arkansas State/USM (SUN BELT TOY)

All signs point to this being a much more defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Arkansas State is coming off seven straight SU losses. It's seen the total go "over" the number in three straight, including in its 87-78 OT home loss to Marshall. Note though that Arkansas State has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. Southern Miss has played to four straight "overs," but it still only averages 75.9 PPG, ranked 80th. Look for the conference leader to clamp down defensively and control the tempo of this contest; this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Wichita State/SMU (AAC TOY)

The bottom line here for this one, is that both teams are struggling to score right now, and their defensive metrics far outweigh their offensive numbers. Wichita State's top player only averages 12 PPG. But the Shockers like to play at a slow pace, ranked 304th in pace out of 363 teams in the country. SMU's tempo is only ranked 143rd. SMU will look to utilize its size on offense. That means running the offense through the big men, and that means setting up a lot of "half court sets" while on offense. When you add it all up, this number is indeed high; the play is the "under!"

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10* UNDER Toledo/Buffalo (MAC TOW)

Toledo is 12-6, while Buffalo is 9-9. That includes though going a near-perfect 8-1 at home. The Rockets are coming off a 90-75 win over Ohio in their latest contest, but I believe they'll have a much more difficult time moving the ball here on the road. The Rockets weakness comes on defense where they're allowing an average of 78.6 PPG. But that defense catches a break here facing a Bulls' offense that averages 79.9 PPG. The Bulls are coming off a blowout win as well, smashing Bowling Green 100-71. Both teams play at incredibly fast paces, but the school that plays the best defense is going to be the one that comes out on top here. These are two really good offenses, and poor defenses, and this is also a really high total. I see enough things "going wrong" to keep this total well "under" the number; and that's the play!

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10* OVER Portland State/Weber State (BIG SKY TOY)

For a number of different reasons, I think this total is low. Both teams enter hungry for a win here at 8-10. Portland State will be particularly eager to return to action after a tight 69-67 home loss to Northern Colorado as a five-point favorite (note though that Portland State has seen the total go "over" the number in four of its last five after a SU/ATS home loss in which it was the favorite and in which it was held to 69 or fewer points in.) Portland State does average 77.7 PPG though. Weber State will have to match pace here, as it comes in averaging 66.1 PPG. It's seen the total go "under" in four straight, but that's only helped in driving today's O/U line a few points lower than it normally would/should be. When these teams played last year, Portland State won by a score of 81-75. I predict a similar final combined score here as well; the play is the "over!"

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10* UNDER Oregon/Cal (PAC 12 TOM)

These teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end here this evening in what I anticipate will be a much tighter, and ultimatley lower-scoring defensive affair. Oregon is 10-8, but just 1-2 on the road. Cla is only 3-15 and just 3-8 at home. Oregon has seen the total go "over" in two straight games, including an 87-68 home victory over Arizona as a four-point underdog. Despite that though, the Ducks still only average 69.6 PPG. After that emotional upset victory, I predict some regression here. Cal averages only 61.8 PPG. It's now lost two straight, falling 66-51 at WSU, and 81-78 in OT at Washington last time out. I have a hard time seeing either side reaching its seasonal offensive average; the play is the "under!"

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10* UNDER Saint Louis/Loyola Chicago (TOTAL BOB)

The Saint Louis Billikens are 12-6 and the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers are 6-11 and I'm expecting a very defensive affair. The Billikens come to town injured, with several key players sidelined. They'are also just 2-3 on the road. Saint Louis averages 76.6 PPG, while the the Ramblers average only 67.6. Loyola Chicago is coming off an 86-55 loss at Saint Joseph's, and I expect an even smaller final combined score in this contest. Look for a much tigher, and ultimatley lower-scoring battle here, the play is indeed on the "under!"

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10* Houston/Tulane UNDER (AAC TOW)

The Cougars are 17-1, but I still think they'll want to body up on Tulane here and turn it into more of a defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Most recently they're coming off an 83-77 win over USF at home. The Green Wave are 12-5, and they're off a 77-69 home win over UCF. Houston is very average offensively with 75.9 PPG, ranked 96th, but their defense is ranked No. 1 overall, conceding just 52.9 PPG. Tulane is averaging 81.9 PPG, while allowing 73.8. Suffice it to say, the Wave have yet to face a defense like Houston's. With the visiting side playing full and half court pressure throughout this contest, I'm expecting the total to say "under" the number!

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10* UNDER Marist/Niagara (MAAC TOM)

For a number of different reasons, I think this will be a very defensive affair. Marist is just 6-9 this year, iincluding 2-4 on the road. The Foxes are off B2B wins though, most recently winning 76-58 at Canisius as 3.5-point underdogs. I say a predictable letdown is in order here; note that they still only average 63.3 PPG. The Purple Aces average slightly more at 65 PPG. I think they'll struggle to hit that average here today though. They've lost their last two games, falling 64-59 to Manhattan and 70-64 to Siena. They failed to reach their seasonal average in either of those contests either. Look for these two hungry teams to battle tough, and expect this total to stay well "under" the number once the final horn blares!

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