This is a 10* on the UNDER

Marshall hosts Eastern Kentucky Thursday night in a battle of teams on five-game streaks. Marshall has gone Over five straight times while Eastern Kentucky is 0-5 ATS its last five games. Let's concentrate on the former streak tonight. This is now the largest total for any Marshall game this season. Interestingly enough, only two of their 10 games played so far would have gone Over tonight's total. The Thundering Herd can probably count on their opponent not scoring much tonight. Eastern Kentucky has lost all six of its road games while averaging just over 60 points. This is the fourth straight road game for the Colonels. But at least this one isn't against Louisville, who dropped 99 points on them Saturday. Eastern Kentucky doesn't shoot the ball well at all as their FG% is below 40% for the season. It's at 31.9% on the road. Marshall is a poor three-point shooting team at 27.4%.  Add it all up and you shouldn't see that much scoring tonight. Play UNDER Eastern Kentucky-Marshall

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This is a 10* on the OVER 

The Spiders of Richmond are 8-1 and have covered three straight, all as favorites. They've also gone Under in seven consecutive tries. That has led us to the lowest O/U for any Richmond game to date, a great time for us to spring into action. The opponent is College of Charleston, a team that has also seen its fair share of Unders so far, but two of their three Overs have come when the total is 135.5 points or lower. Richmond should not have much trouble scoring in this game. They are averaging 84.8 points/game at home and 79.6 points/game for the year. So we're counting on them holding up their end of the bargain. They've scored 75 in every game vs. a non-power conference foe. Both teams have held opponents to just over 40% shooting so far this year. Don't look for that to continue. Play OVER Charleston-Richmond

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This is a 10* on the UNDER

The last four St. Mary's games have all gone Over. Look for this one to buck that trend. For starters, they'll be matched up with an opponent that can play some defense. Northern Illinois opponents have shot just 38.4% for the season. The spread also suggests that we're in store for an Under. Of the last 28 times St. Mary's has been a home favorite of 12.5 to 15 points, the Under has come through 20 times. That includes a 5-1 run the last six times in the situation. Northern Illinois is going to need its defense because it doesn't shoot very well on the road. They're hitting below 40% in their three previous road games.  St. Mary's has allowed more than 66 points in a game just one time and that was to nationally ranked Utah State. NIU has only had one bad defensive effort thus far. It wasn't the last game where they kept Oakland to 50 points. Both games where Northern Illinois has been an underdog, the game has gone Under. They averaged just 53 points in the two losses. Play UNDER Northern Illinois-St. Mary's 

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This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Michigan State started the year at #1 in polls. But they lost their first time out, falling to #2 Kentucky 69-62. It didn't take the Spartans long to bounce back though. Sunday saw them destroy Binghamton by a score of 100-47. Up next on the docket for Tom Izzo's team is a date with Seton Hall. The Pirates are 2-0 having also hit triple digits in a game (beat Wagner 105-71 in the opener). They followed that up by beating Stony Brook 74-57. Needless to say, this is a major step up in terms of the opposition. Seton Hall is no slouch. They are ranked #12 in the country. But they'll likely be playing without their best player Thursday. Myles Powell, who is the preseason Big East Player of the Year, sprained his ankle in the Stony Brook game. Replacing his production will be quite difficult, especially against a strong defensive team like Michigan State. Sparty didn't shoot well against Kentucky (39.4 FG%) and it will be interesting to see how they do in their first true road game. The Under is 17-7 when Izzo's team is a road favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. Play UNDER Michigan State-Seton Hall

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This is a 10* play UNDER Michigan State-Duke

These two national powers approach their Elite 8 matchup with serious injury concerns. For Duke, Cam Reddish was a late scratch Friday night vs. Va Tech. For a second straight game, the Blue Devils had to hold on as a last second shot by their opponent (that would have been a game-winner) rolled off the rim. Michigan State lost Nick Ward to a hand injury late in their Sweet 16 victory over LSU. But he said he will play here. While the Spartans scored 80 against LSU, they actually shot better the game before against Minnesota. We don't look for them to shoot that well or score as many in this game. Duke, like Michigan State, is a top 10 team in defensive efficiency. Both teams are holding their opponents to a field goal percentage below 40.0 for the season. The Blue Devils are not a great three-point shooting team, but have been better than usual the last two games. Don't look for that trend to continue, however. For the year, they are at just 27.1% from behind the arc away from Cameron. Take Tre Jones going 5 for 7 out of the equation and the rest of the Blue Devils shot just 1 of 13 on three-pointers against Va Tech. The team shot 55% overall, but that won't be repeated here. Good news for Duke is they hold their opponents to under 30% from three-point range. Low-scoring game between the top two seeds in the East Region. Play UNDER Michigan State-Duke

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This is an 8* play on UNDER Auburn-Kentucky

Well, there will be one SEC team in the Final Four. We just don't know if it'll be Auburn or Kentucky. This all-SEC Elite 8 matchup pits the 5th seeded Tigers against the 2nd seeded Wildcats and is the third time they'll have met this season. Kentucky won the first two, 82-80 on the road and 80-53 on the road. Obviously, the major difference between the two games was how much worse Auburn was on offense in Lexington. This game is being played at a neutral site and considering how strong the Tigers have looked offensively in this Tournament, you'd think that this rubber match is inclined to more closely resemble the first regular season meeting. But Kentucky is playing lock down defense. As a result 9 of its last 11 games have stayed Under. And Auburn's offense has suffered a major blow with third leading scorer Chuma Okeke out with a knee injury. Okeke was leading the team with 20 points against North Carolina when the injury was suffered. As for the UK offense, they don't make that many threes and have scored only 62 points each of the last two games. The Under is 13-3 in the Wildcats last 16 NCAA Tournament games plus 12-3 the last 15 times they've taken on Auburn. Play UNDER Auburn-Kentucky

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This is an 8* play on OVER Auburn-North Carolina

This game figures to see plenty of points. Both teams are averaging over 80 points per game in the tournament. Both average either more (North Carolina) or close to (Auburn) 80 PPG over the whole season. North Carolina scores the third most points in the country at 86.0 PPG. They should not have much trouble scoring here. A key advantage they have over Auburn is rebounding. The Tar Heels outrebound their opponents - on average - by about 10.5 per game. Auburn is at -3.5 rebounds per game. We expect lots of second chance points for the Tar Heels in this one. They just put up 81 against a Washington team that was top 20 in the country in defensive efficiency. We had the Under in that one and it stayed Under with North Carolina holding the Huskies to just 59 points. But Washington is fairly inept offensively, a description that clearly does not apply to Auburn. The Tigers have scored at least 78 points seven times during their 10-game win streak. The Over is 5-0 in their last five games vs. teams that have a win percentage north of .600. That includes 2-0 in the Tournament as they have given up 77 and 75 points. Play OVER Auburn-North Carolina 

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This is a 10* play UNDER LSU-Michigan State

This should be a dogfight. LSU has won a couple of close games so far, sticking true to their profile. A 79-74 win over Yale and 69-67 win over Maryland makes it 11 wins this season by five points or less for the Tigers. That doesn't even include a pair of six-point overtime victories in conference play. Michigan State was shaky in Round 1 vs. Bradley (failed to cover), but totally shut down Big 10 rival Minnesota in the round of 32. Sparty won that game 70-50, holding the Golden Gophers to a 30.5% shooting percentage. LSU didn't shoot particularly well in their win over Maryland (36.9%) but was fortunate to hold the Terps to 33.3%. Expect this to be a low-scoring affair. In their last 13 games, MSU has allowed more than 70 points just one time. They are 18-7-1 to the Under when off an ATS victory. The Under is 5-2 in LSU's last seven games overall with both Overs coming against the same team - Florida. The total for both Florida games was lower than it is here. Michigan State won't be shooting 57.1% again here like they did vs. Minnesota. Play UNDER LSU-Michigan State

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This is an 8* play OVER Utah Valley-USF

There should be plenty of points scored in this CBI matchup Monday evening. Utah Valley State just scored 91 in their last game (while giving up 84) and they've been pretty prolfic this entire season. The Wolverines average 77.6 points per game overall and have exceeded that average over the last five games. South Florida just gave up 48 points in a half to its previous opponent, Stony Brook, before coming back to win. That was the most points scored by Stony Brook in any half this season. USF wound up getting the three-point win in overtime, thanks to a strong defensive effort after halftime, but strong defensive efforts have been somewhat few and far between with this group. The Bulls two previous opponents both shot better than 54% from the field and Utah Valley is certainly capable of doing the same as they shoot 38.5% from three-point range. USF's last four games have all gone Over as have the last two for Utah Valley. The Over is 7-0 in USF's last seven home games and 6-0 the last six times Utah Valley has taken on a team with a win percentage above .600. Play OVER Utah Valley State-South Florida

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This is a 10* play UNDER UC Irvine-Oregon

We're guaranteed to have at least one Sweet Sixteen team seeded 12th or lower thanks to this matchup. While it can and will be said that both Oregon and UC Irvine pulled upsets, really, only the latter truly did. Oregon actually opened as a 1-pt favorite for its first round game vs. Wisconsin and for good reason. The Ducks are as hot right now as any team in the country. The 72-54 win and cover over the Badgers was their ninth in a row. As in they're 9-0 SU and ATS the last nine games. Seven of those nine victims were held to a field goal percentage of 34.0 or lower. Speaking of defense, that's how UC Irvine pulled the biggest upset in terms of seed (13 over 4), beating Kansas State. The Big West Champs are no slouch and we don't expect Oregon to shoot 54.9% from the floor in this game (like they did vs. Wisconsin). No UC Irvine opponent has shot better than 42.0 percent its last 12 games. We get that it's a low total. But the Under is 12-3 in Oregon's past 15 games. UC Irvine has gone Under in 15 of its last 22 when facing a team with a win percentage of .600 or better. Two good defensive teams go Under. Play UNDER UC Irvine-Oregon

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This is an 8* UNDER Washington-North Carolina

We expect North Carolina to roll in this second round matchup with Washington, but don't go expecting them to hit their season average in points per game. Thanks to a big second half, they did hit 88 in the first round. But that was against a bad defensive team in Iona. Washington is actually very good on the defensive end as it holds its foes to an average of 64.3 points per game. The Huskies really kept Utah State in check Friday night, limiting them to 61 points on 35.2% shooting. But the UW offense will be what ultimately costs the team this game. It's been a 63.4 PPG average the last five games, which includes a pair of sub-50 point efforts against Oregon. UNC is even stronger than Oregon on the defensive end. That the Huskies struggled so much on offense in a weak Pac 12 is a very bad sign for this game. They shot much better than usual against Utah State, which we don't see being the case here. Four of North Carolina's last five games have gone Under with none of those opponents scoring 75 points. The Under is now 4-0 in the Tar Heels' previous four Tournament games. Washington is 6-1 Under its last 7 games following an ATS victory. Play UNDER Washington-North Carolina

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This is a 10* play on UNDER Wofford-Kentucky

Kentucky turned in one of the more dominant first round performances, beating Abilene Christian 79-44. It was a first half romp as UK raced out to an 18-3 advantage, led 39-13 at the break and it was over from there. This was without P.J. Washington mind you. Not having Washington hardly mattered against a team like Abilene Christian, but could hurt the Wildcats against Wofford. The Terriers used a second half surge to win their game against Seton Hall Thursday, ending the game on a 22-6 run. Being that Kentucky does not make a lot of threes (only made 4 vs. ACU), but will do a better job defending Wofford than Seton Hall did, this game has all the makings of an Under. Kentucky will not be shooting 62% on two-point attempts again like they did Thursday. Similarly, Wofford will not find the same three point success here as they did vs. Seton Hall. The Under is 22-12 in all UK games this season, including 11-3 the last 14. A second game in three days will also lead to a slower pace. Play UNDER Wofford-Kentucky

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This is an 8* play UNDER Maryland-LSU

The size advantage that both Maryland and LSU enjoyed in their first round victories simply will not be present here. Both teams are big and talented in the frontcourt, so second chance points should be kept to a minimum. LSU is not known as a great defensive team by any means. However, they did just hold Yale to a 37.5 FG%. Maryland isn't going to shoot the lights out here either as when you take them out of College Park, they are hitting at only 42.5% and averaging 65.9 points. But what the Terrapins can do is play outstanding defense. Their opponents are shooting below 40% for the year. Neither team should score as many here as they did in Round 1. The Under is 6-2 in Maryland's previous eight neutral site games. It was an Over vs. Belmont, but that's a team that plays at an ultra-fast pace. LSU doesn't exactly play "slow," but the Under is now 9-1 in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games. Play UNDER Maryland-LSU

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This is an 8* play OVER Arizona State-Buffalo

We took the Under in Arizona State's game Wednesday, which they won handily. But this time won't be facing an offensively inept team like St. John's, whom they limited to 31.9% shooting. Instead it will be Buffalo, one of the highest scoring teams in the country. The MAC Champion Bulls average 84.9 points per game and when you couple that with the fact ASU averages 77.7, you have the recipe for a high-scoring affair. Yes, we definitely cited the Sun Devils strong field goal percentage defense as a reason to expect Wednesday's game to go Under. But Buffalo should prove too difficult to stop. They play at a very fast tempo as is evident by them topping 80 points in five striaght games. ASU isn't too far behind, scoring at least 74 in its last five games. With ASU coach Bobby Hurley having previously coached at Buffalo, there should be no surprises defensively here. Play OVER Arizona State-Buffalo

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This is a 10* play UNDER Gardner-Webb vs. Virginia

This is our top Round 1 total. Certainly, the defense of Virginia needs no introduction. The top seeded Cavaliers lead the country in scoring defense (55.1 PPG allowed), giving up 3.5 PPG fewer than the second best team (Michigan). Yes, we're sure you remember last year's epic flameout in the 1st round as the Cavs became the first 1-seed to ever lose to a 16-seed (you knew it would happen eventually). But this team should be on a mission to atone for that sin. Don't look for Gardner-Webb to be anywhere near as successful as UMBC was last year. The Bulldogs have won eight of nine and upset Radford to win the Big South Tourney. But they're severely outclassed here. Virginia did lose its last game, to Florida State in the ACC Semifinals, which becomes important when you consider UVA is 7-2 Under its last nine times following a SU loss. There's a strong chance Gardner-Webb gets held to a season low in points this afternoon. Virginia plays slow and its opponents average less than 20 made field goals per game. On the bright side for Gardner-Webb is the fact Virginia scored only 59 points its last game. Play UNDER Gardner Webb-Virginia

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This is an 8* play UNDER Colgate-Tennessee

Despite having spent significant time ranked #1 in the country, Tennessee still has a sense of skepticism around them. Now they should have no problem beating 15-seed Colgate Friday. But the second-seeded Vols definitely didn't look good in their SEC Final loss to Auburn on Sunday. They went down there by a score of 84-64. It was the 4th straight game giving up 76 points or more. All four games went Over. But even though the Volunteers are facing a team that has won 11 in a row, we'll call for them to turn in their best defensive effort in a while. Colgate's last three games were all Over, but they should expect to find UT a lot tougher to score on than the standard Patriot League fare. The Raiders played only one NCAA Tournament team all season (Syracuse) and they scored just 54 points. The Under is a powerful 20-4 the last 24 times Colgate has faced an opponent with a win percentage of .600 or greater. The Under is a on 19-9 run in Tennessee games when they are off an ATS loss. Play UNDER Colgate-Tennessee 

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This is a 10* play UNDER St. John's-Arizona State

This total just seems too high to us, even though neither team is going to "wow" you defensively. Arizona State has some issues offensively as well. Both members of its starting backcourt are shooting below 41% overall and 33% from three-point land on the season. As a team, the Sun Devils were near the bottom of the Pac 12 in overall field goal percentage. But they make up for that some by allowing opponents to only shoot 41.3%. Their last game, a 79-74 loss to Oregon, would have been a lot lower scoring were it not for overtime. St. John's only scored 54 points the last time it took the floor, shooting 32.8% in an ugly loss to Marquette. For both teams, we usually don't see a total this high. Arizona State has allowed only one of its previous seven opponents to shoot better than 45% and five were held below 42%. Those expecting a shootout tonight should be prepared to be disappointed. Play UNDER Arizona State-St. Johns

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