VCU/Dayton UNDER (A-10 TOY)

This total isn't the largest one obviously, but it's still much too high in my opinion. For a number of different reasons, I expect this one to stay well below the posted number. VCU is 12-5, but just 1-3 on the road. The Rams average 71.1 PPG, while the Flyers average 68.5. Dayton is 12-5, including 9-0 at home so far. These teams are two of the best in the conference in most defensive categories. They matchup well against each other. This is a difficult spread to get a read on, but as far as the total is concerned, I'm expecting an absolute war from start to finish, with plenty of half and full court pressures throughout. Look for this highly-competitive affair to produce a lower-scoring "under!" 

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10* WMU/Toledo UNDER (MAC TOY)

WMU is 4-10, while Toledo is 9-5. The Rockets have won the MAC regular season title in each of the last two seasons, but this year's version seems a step behind. Note that both teams are still looking for its first conference win of the season. The Broncos only average 68.6 PPG, so the last thing they can do here is turn this into a "shootout" and expect to hang with the Rockets. WMU is terrible on the road, 0-7 so far. The Rockets come in somewhat complacent after winning 11 straight in this series. Toledo is averaging 84.9 PPG this year, but it won't need to run up the score here to win and control this contest from the ouset. The Rockets are actually off a poor 90-83 loss to Ball State here at home, so I expect them to double down defensively. For all the reasons listed above, the play is the "under!" 

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10* OVER Washington/Gonzaga (NON-CONF TOW)

When these teams battled in 2019, Gonzaga walked away with the 83-76 victory. I expect a similar final combined score here as well. Washington is 7-2 after a 73-63 win over Colorado in its last outing. Overall the Huskies are averaging 70.1 PPG, while allowing 63.9. Keion Brooks leads the nightly charge with an average of 16.6 PPG. The Huskies will have to bring their "A" game to face the 6-3 Bulldogs. Gonzaga is averaging a whopping 80.2 PPG this year, but its defense has taken a step back, as it's conceding 74.1. Finally note, the "over" is 5-1 in Washington's last six games following a straight-up win. I expect a faster-paced affair here, one that flies well "over" the number once it's all said and done!

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10* OVER (TOM)

Villanova is going to have to hit some three-balls today if it wants to beat the Jayhawks. Miami struggled from range in the second half of its Elite 8 matchup vs. Kansas, and the Jayhawks would then pull away for the 76-50 victory (Hurricanes finished just 3 of 21 from range.) The Wildcats can shoot threes and they're one of the best free throw shooting team's in the country as well. Villanova did lose the services of Justin Moore to a torn Achilles tendon in the win over Houston. Villanova can't afford to get into a half-court battle with this efficient Kansas team. I'm expecting this one to be a bit more "wide open" and faster-paced than what this O/U line is suggesting; the play is the over!

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10* OVER (BOB)

Two really good defensive teams battle for the NIT Championship tonight, but I think that public perception has helped driving this total a few points lower than it should be. The Musketeers enter off an 84-77 win over St. Bonaventure to advance, while Texas A&M beat Washington State by a score of 72-56. Xavier is going to have to push the pace from start to finish here to try and take the Aggies out of their comfort zone. The Musketeers average 74.1 PPG. A&M averages 72.7 PPG. I believe each team will exceed its offensive seasonal average today. Yes, this is a big game, but I believe that'll translate into an efficent, wide-open contest, rather than a suffocating defensive one; this number is a little low, the play is the over!

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10* OVER (NIT SEMI-FINAL TOY)

Washington State is 22-14 after beating BYU by a score of 77-58 to advance to the semi-finals of the NIT. Michael Flowers led the way in the win with 27 points, 5 assists and 3 steals. Texas A&M advanced to this point by beating Wake Forest by a score of 67-52. Wade Taylor was a standout in that victory with 12 points. Both teams enter on top form. If they had just gotten hot like this a couple of weeks earlier in the regular season, each could have been playing in The Big Dance instead of the NIT. Either way, I expect a faster pace here and I look for this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

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10* OVER (SWEET 16 TOY)

I think that public perception has driven this O/U line a few points lower than it normally would be. And that's because Iowa State has seen the total go "under" the number in its last five Tournament Games (conference and NCAA), while Miami Florida has also seen the total go "under" in both of its NCAA Tournament games. Yes, these team's successes are based around their tough-nosed defensive play, but here's a case where each will be pushing the pace on the offensive end. Look for each side to exceed it's seasonal offensive average; the play is the over!

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10* UNDER (1st RND TOY)

With these larger 5-game reports, I'll keep my analysis much more "succinct" than I normally do. In what I predict will be a very tight battle, the correct call as far as the total is concered is definitely the "under" in my opinion. Davidson is the No. 10 seed and Michigan State is No. 7. These teams have plenty of experience on both sides of the ball and each is coached extremely well. Davidson averages 75.8 PPG, while MSU averages 72.1. Suffice it to say, I don't expect either to hit their seasonal offensive average here. Expect this evenly matched contest to turn into a very low-scoring defensive battle; the play is the under!

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10* OVER (ASSASSIN)

This is going to be an interesting battle, but it's one that I anticipate will fly well "over" the number before the final buzzer sounds! Texas Southern is a good rebounding team, but it's turnover prone. Texas A&M CC forces a TON of steals, so the Tigers are going to be forced to push the pace here to keep up. Texas A&M CC ranks 65th in the country at 75% from the free throw line, so the underdog could in fact have an edge if Texas Southern isn't careful. The best way for the Tigers to avoid this scenario though will be to take an early lead and keep the pressure on; in what I expect to a fast-paced affair, the play is the "over" as far as the total is concerned in my opinion!

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10* UNDER (ASSASSIN)

Two really good teams collide here, and I expect this competitive affair to produce a very defensive contest, rather than a high-scoring offensive one. USC beat Washington by a score of 65-61 to advance to this game, while UCLA beat Washington State by a score of 75-65. The Bruins have seen the total fly "over" in three straight, but that does in fact work in our favor here as UCLA has seen the total go "under" in seven of its last ten after playing to 3 or more straight "overs" in a row. When these teams met in the final regular season game, UCLA won 75-68 and the total snuck "over" the posted number, but we can expect this conference tournament game to be much more intense defensively; the play is the under!

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10* UNDER (SPECIAL)

Two really good teams collide here. Offensive or defensive affair? In my opinion, everything is pointing towards this being a very tight, and lower-scoring game. NKU is 19-11, while Purdue Fort Wayne is 21-10. The Norse though aren't blowing teams out of the water to win games, as they average only 70.1 PPG. Instead its a suffocating defense that will be taksed to slow down the Mastadons, who enter averaging just 74.6 PPG. The Norse won 59-49 on January 28th, and I believe we'll see a similar lower-scoring defesive war here as well; this number is high, the play is the under!

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10* OVER (ASSASSIN)

This is the final regular season game for both teams. MTSU is 22-8, but only 5-8 on the road, while ODU is only 12-17 overall, but a very respectable 9-4 at home. The Monarchs play with revenge after falling 63-48 to MTSU on February 10th. And that's significant to note for us here for sure, as ODU has seen the total so "over" the number in 9 of its last 12 in trying to revenge a conference road loss against an opponent in which it was held to 55 or less points in. MTSU has seen the total go under in 3 straight, but it's seen the total go "over" the number in 7 of its last 10 after playing to 3 or more straight "unders" in a row. Considering all of the above information, I say the total in the "rematch" this afternoon is now just a little bit TOO low; the play is the over!

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10* OVER (ASSASSIN)

The A-10 Conference still has two games to go before its Tournament starts. Saint Louis is 19-10 overall, but just 4-6 on the road. It's coming off a tight 68-66 loss to Richmond. It does average 77.7 PPG though, which ranks 36th in the country. It beat URI 67-60 last year, but I expect a much higher-scoring affair this time around. Rhode Island snapped a 3-game slide with a 70-54 win over Duquesne last time out. It's seen the total go "under" in 4 straight (but note, the Rams have seen the total eclipse the posted number in 7 of their last 10 after playing to 3 or more straight "unders" in a row.) It's a big game at the end of the season and I expect a faster-paced affair; this number is low, the play is the over!

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10* UNDER (ASSASSIN)

Bethune-Cookman and Grambling State are stumbling towards the finish line. With little to play for here, I expect another sloppy overall affair, one that falls "under" the number. The Wildcats enter on a 3-game losing streak. They're off an 87-84 OT loss to Southern. Off that heart-wrenching setback, I can't see how the visiting side will muster much energy for tonight's game vs. 11-16 Grambling State. The Tigers are off a 79-73 defeat to Florida A&M on Saturday. The main issue for both teams this year though has been because of their poor offenses, as Bethune-Cookman averages 62.8 PPG, while Grambling State averages 65.8. Both team's strength lies on the defensive end. Look for a this one to fall well "under" before the final seconds tick off the clock!

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10* UNDER (SWAC TOY)

Two really poor teams here. I can't see at all where the motivation will come from. Alabama State is just 6-20 overall, including only 2-14 on the road, while Bethune-Cookman is 7-19 overall and 4-5 at home this season. The Hornets only average 67.7 PPG, while the Wildcats average just 61.3. The Wildcats play with revenge here after falling 79-73 at Alabama State in mid-January. While that game went well "over" the posted number of 133, we can expect a much tighter, and ultimately lower-scoring contest this time around, between two teams just playing out the tail ends of their disastrous seasons. Finally, note that Alabama A&M has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in 8 of its last 9 in trying to revenge a SU/ATS home conference home loss against an opponent as the favorite. This number is high, the play is the under!

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10* UNDER (ASSASSIN)

These are two teams in dire need of a win, and because of that I anticipate a much more defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The Terps are just 11-14 and they've lost 5 straight. The Huskers are just 7-18 this year, with just 1 conference victory. Maryland is coming off a heart-breaking 62-61 loss to No. 3 Purdue as well, so I have a hard time seeing where this team will find its focus or energy on the road. Thankfully, the Terps don't have to worry about Nebraska's pathetic offense. Both teams average in the low 70's and I don't expect either to hit their offensive seasonal averages. This one will be a sloppy, and ultimately lower-scoring defensive war; the play is the under!

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10* OVER (SUN BELT TOM)

When I bet on "overs," I like betting on motivated teams. The Georgia Southern Eagles fall under that category, as they're now just 11-12 this season, including 4-8 in league play after 3 straight losses. Georgia Southern will host this exact game on Saturday. Georgia State enters on the other end of the spectrum, as it's won 3 in a row. The Eagles are out to snap their slide, and the Panthers will aim to kick their opponent while its down. Why is this total SO incredibly low? Because both teams struggle offensively. Georgia Southern though has seen the total go "over" the number in 7 of its last 9 after 3 or more SU losses in a row. I say Georgia State keeps the pressure on from start to finish, forcing the visitors to match pace; in what I expect to be a faster-paced game, look for this one to fly well over the number before the final horn sounds!

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10* UNDER (SEC TOM)

Two teams in need of a victory collide in this one, and I'm expecting a very defensive battle. South Carolina is 14-10 this season (3-5 on the road), while Ole Miss is 12-13 (10-5 at home.)

The Gamecocks though average only 71.4 PPG. Ole Miss averages even less at 67.9. These teams pride themselves on their aggressive defensive play. This is the only matchup of the year between the schools. In their last matchup on March 11th, Ole Miss won 76-59 as a 7-point fav. That total stayed under the posted number of 140.5. I expect an even tigther, and ultimately lower-scoring game this time though; the official call is on the under!

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10* OVER (EXPRESS)

UVA may be 16-9 overall, but it's just 4-5 on the road. VT is only 15-10 this season, but it's 9-3 at home. Neither team scores a lot of points, and each is among the best in the nation on the defensive side. That's why this total is so low. VT plays with revenge here though after a 54-52 setback at UVA back in mid January. The total in that contest was set 116.5, and it still stayed well below the number. VT though averages 70.9 PPG and it's seen the total go "over" the number in 7 of its last 9 in trying to revenge a conference road loss to an opponent in which it was held to 55 or less points in; with the home side pushing the pace in its revenge bid, I believe the visitors, who average 63.4 PPG, will finally be forced out of their comfort zone defensively; expect this total to fly "over" the number before the final buzzer blares!

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10* OVER (OVC TOY)

Southeast Missouri State is 11-14 overall. It's 6-6 in conference action. It'll have its hands full today with uptempo Belmont. The Bruins are 21-5 and 11-2 in league play. Belmont is the only team that Southeast Missouri State has never beaten in the conference, going 0-11 all-time in this series. BU has won 10 of the 11 matchups by double digits. That includes all 5 games at the Show Me Center. The Redhawks though enter on top form for this season, as they've won 5 of their last 8. Most recently it was a 76-47 win over SIU Edwardsville. That's significant to note as the Redhawks have seen the total go "over" in 7 of their last 9 off a SU/ATS win in which they held their opponent to 50 points or less in. Expect this faster-paced "shootout" to fly over the number sooner, rather than later; the play is the over!

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10* OVER WSU/Cal (TOW)

The 9-14 Cal Bears will look for a win here against the visiting 13-7 Washington State Cougars. These teams don't score a lot of points most nights, but I think this particular contest will be much more wide open than what this O/U line is suggesting. Tonight's total is extra low because when these two met in mid-January, the Cougars defeated the Bears by a score of 65-57. Note that Cal has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 7 of its last 8 in trying to revenge a conference road loss against an opponent in which it was held to 59 or fewer points in. Expect these two opponents to open things up and look for this total to fly well OVER the number!

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10* OVER (MAULING)

Providence is 8-1 in Big East action. Most recently it's coming off a 65-63 win over No. 22 Marquette on January 30th. Previous to that the Friars beat Xavier 65-62. Keep your eyes on Justin Minaya, who played all 80 minutes in those 2 victories. St. John's though has won 9 straight at home, where it averages 88.0 PPG on 58 percent shooting. Posh Alexander led the way last time out with 19 points. The over hit the last time these teams played in January and I expect another high-scoring shootout as well here. The over has hit in 7 of the last 9 in this series on this floor; expect that trend to continue tonight!

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10* OVER (MAAC TOY)

The 6-6 Saint Peters' Peacocks enter on top form, having won 3 straight. Most recently it was a 65-57 win over Canisius. Isiah Dasher led the Peacocks with 17 points and 2 rebounds. The Niagara Purple Eagles are 8-8, but they've been playing well as well, with 5 straight wins. Most recently it was a 72-63 win over Manhattan. Noah Thomasson led the way with 20 points, 3 rebounds, 4 assists and 4 steals. Both teams have been playing to lots of low-scoring games, but I expect this competitive contest to be a shootout. Each team has been great of late, so expect that to translate into offensive production today; the play is the over!

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10* UNDER (SUNBELT TOY)

I think this one sets up really nicely from a situational standpoint. Most of my Over/Under releases I base upon strong "situations," and that's definitely the case here in my opinion. Arkansas Little Rock struggles to score at the best of times, but after nearly a two-week COVID hiatus, I firmly believe the Trojans will have a very slow start to this game offensively. Instead, I expect the home side to double down on the defensive end here against the Texas State Bobcats. To say this is a revenge game for the Bobcats would be an understatement, as ALRU has won 9 of the last 10 in the series, including all 4 games last year. Texas State rallied to beat UL Lafayette 72-68 last time out, but it's seen the total go under the number in 7 of its last 11 after an ATS home loss to a conference opponent. For all the reasons listed here, my official call on the total is definitely on the under!

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10* BIG TEN TOTAL OF MONTH Under Indiana/Nebraska

The Hoosiers will be eager to return to their winning ways today after an 83-74 loss to Iowa last time out. Indiana has just one win on the road though. If Indiana is going to win this game, it won't be because of its offense. The Hoosiers average only 74.9 points per game, but they make up for it on the other end by conceding just 62.2. That defense catches a break here today as well, as Nebraska is only averaging 73.4 PPG, while allowing 79.2. Off a loss and on the road, we can expect Indiana to double down on its efforts on the defensive end; a great situational play on the under! 

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10* UNDER (SEC TOY)

I'm expecting a defensive affair in this one. Mississippi State is 10-4, while Georgia is 5-10. The Bulldogs though are looking to rebound here after an 82-72 loss at rival Mississippi this past weekend. Here's the perfect opponent to get untracked against. Georgia has lost five of it slast six and it's coming off a 15-point loss at Kentucky. Georgia plays at a slow pace, ranked 121st in the nation by KenPom. Mississippi State though plays to an even slower pace, ranked 316th. Mississippi State's strength is on the offensive side, but it's not going to have to keep the foot on the gas against this offensively challenged Georgia team. The last thing Georgia can do is turn this into a "track-meet," so I'm expecting a slower-pace overall. This number is a tad high, the play is the under!

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10* UNDER (BE TOM)

DePaul is off a 79-64 home loss to Villanova and I think it'll have difficulty on the offensive end again today. Marquette comes in off a 92-64 victory over Georgetown. DePaul has now dropped eight straight ranked games. Marquette is now 2-3 in league action after its latest victory. Note that the 28-point victory that the Golden Eagles had over the Hoyas was their largest-ever winning margin on the road in BIG EAST regular season play. Suffice it to say, I expect a bit of regression here. The under has gone 7-1 in the Blue Demons last eight games following a double-digit loss as well. Expect a slower-pace, and ultimately a lower-scoring contest.

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10* SUMMIT TOTAL OF YEAR on the under Nebraska Omaha/Oral Roberts.

The 2-11 Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks are on the road to take on the 8-6 Oral Roberts Golden Eagles and in my opinion, we're going to witness a much more defensive affair than what this line is suggesting. The Mavericks snapped their 11-game slide with an 84-78 win over the Western Illinois Leathernecks last time out. Omaha averages just 64.9 PPG this year, while allowing 80.3. Oral Roberts is averaging 80.9 PPG, while conceding just 68.1. The Eagles are off an 83-66 win over Denver in their last game. I think the Mavericks though will have a predictable letdown here after their win in their last game. Oral Roberts doesn't need to run up the score here to win this game, just control it. When the smoke clears, expect this total to say under the number.

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This is an 8* on OVER

St. Bonaventure and Virginia Tech take the floor Friday for an afternoon tipoff in the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, NC. The Bonnies are 8-2 while Va Tech is 7-4. But despite the superior won-loss record, St. Bonaventure is the underdog in this game. They are just 3-6 ATS, including 0-5 L5 games. While perhaps not all that trustworthy plus the points, the Bonnies have been doing plenty of scoring of late. They’ve averaged 77.8 points in those last five contests, even after being held to just 64 in a loss to UConn last Saturday. That loss to UConn saw them shoot a season-low 38.7% from the field. That was after shooting a season-high 60% in a win over Loyola MD in the previous game. Kyle Lofton, the Bonnies’ leading scorer and part of an all-senior starting lineup, has missed the last three games. But he returned to practice on Monday. Va Tech, like St. Bonaventure, rates in the Top 50 in offensive efficiency. The Hokies have also had their struggles recently, dropping four of their last six games. They too shot it poorly last time out. We’re quite confident that St. Bonaventure, who is 9-2-1 Over off their previous 12 losses, will score a solid number of points today. The total is low and Va Tech is 7-3-1 Over L11 neutral site games. We see this going Over. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Xavier comes into tonight ranked #25 in the country and has a 9-1 SU record. Their only loss was to an Iowa State team that’s still undefeated. Since that loss, the Musketeers have not just won - but also covered - five straight games. The most impressive win took place on Saturday when they smoked rival Cincinnati 83-63. We had the Over in that game and will play this game the same way. This time the Musketeers are hosting Morehead State. The Eagles are 6-4 on the year after losing 82-75 at East Tenn State on Saturday. While they may rank first among Ohio Valley Conference teams in scoring defense, slowing down Xavier should be a tougher challenge. The Musketeers have averaged 83.5 points their last four games. Assuming Xavier, at the very least, hits its season average of 75.8 points per game, then all we would need from Morehead State is 62 points, which is below their season average. Asking two teams to hit their season average in points per game doesn’t seem like asking for “too much.” If it happens, then we’ve easily got our Over, a bet which has hit 11 of the previous 16 games where Xavier has been off an ATS win.

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

We’ve got what looks to be a heck of a showdown in College Basketball on Sunday as #2 Baylor takes on #6 Villanova in the headliner of the Big 12-Big East Battle. Baylor, last year’s National Champs, is still undefeated at 9-0. They average 84 points/game. The schedule hasn’t all been all that challenging up to this point, but the Bears have scored at least 75 in every game except the one vs. Virginia Commonwealth. They put up a season-high 99 last time out. Villanova happens to be off its season-low point total as they could only manage 67 in a win over Syracuse earlier in the week. But the Wildcats, who are 7-2 on the season, are averaging 78.2 per game. Look for these two national powers to play a high-scoring game on Sunday, much higher scoring than their meeting in the Sweet 16 last March when they combined to go 6 of 36 from three-point range. The Over is 14-4 in Baylor’s last 18 games in Waco. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

City rivals Cincinnati and Xavier renew acquaintances on Saturday evening. Cincinnati is 7-2 with their losses coming to Arkansas and Monmouth. There’s no reason for the Bearcats to hang their heads over losing to Arkansas, the #12 ranked team in the country, on a neutral court. The loss to Monmouth was a little more embarrassing, though it came by only two points and Monmouth has the best ATS record in the country right now. But what matters most to fans of Cincy basketball is their recent futility against Xavier. They’ve lost seven of the last ten matchups and are 0-5 ATS here at Xavier. The Musketeers bring an 8-1 SU record into Saturday. Their only loss was to undefeated Iowa State. Expect bad blood and lots of scoring Saturday night. Xavier just went for 96 points in its last game, a total beatdown of Ball State. The Over is 4-0 the previous four times the Musketeers have been off a win that was by more than 20 points. This total seems low for two teams that average more than 70 points/game. Part of that is the last six Cincinnati games have all stayed Under. But the last five all had totals higher than this one. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

This is the second tough game in a row for Iowa as they begin the Big 10 portion of the schedule. They lost to Purdue, who is perhaps the best team in the country right now, 77-70 on Friday. But the Hawkeyes managed to keep it close despite not having leading scorer Keegan Murray (24.6 points/game), who sat because of a bad ankle. Murray, the nation’s second leading scorer, is expected to be back in the lineup tonight as the Hawkeyes host Illinois. Having Murray back and getting this game in Iowa City should result in Iowa scoring at a rate similar to what we saw from them in their first six games of the season. Even after facing Virginia and Purdue on the road, the Hawkeyes are still averaging 91.0 points/game. That’s third most in the country. At home, they average 97.2 points/game! We can’t say they’ll score that many tonight, but they will score enough to get this one Over the total. Defensively, the Hawkeyes aren’t great, which is a problem facing Illinois when Kofi Cockburn is in the lineup. Cockburn is right behind Murray, averaging 24.0 point/game. He’s missed some games, but the Fighting Illini still are averaging 76.7 points/game and have topped that number in each of their last three games, scoring 94, 82 and 86. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

It’s a battle of 7-0 teams in the Big 10 Friday. Iowa and Purdue both handled their business in the Big 10/ACC Championship Game earlier this week. Iowa beat Virginia 75-74 while Purdue crushed Florida State 93-65. What may make this a tough matchup for the Hawkeyes is they are just 98th in defensive efficiency. Purdue, who is the home team here, ranks 1st in the country in offensive efficiency. But not far behind them is tonight’s visitor, who is 3rd in the country in offensive efficiency (a measure of how many points a team scores per possession). So expect this to be a high-scoring affair Friday night in West Lafayette. The 75 points that Iowa scored in the last game was a season-low, if you can believe it. With the team they beat (Virginia) playing at the slowest tempo in the country, it makes sense that the Hawkeyes scored a season-low. But they average 94.0 points/game and Purdue plays at a much more reasonable tempo. The Boilermakers also average 92.4 points/game. The oddsmakers can’t make this total high enough, in our eyes. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

The Big Ten drew first blood last night against the ACC, taking both games in this annual “Challenge.” The event really kicks into “high gear” on Tuesday with six games, including one featuring the Big Ten’s “best,” that being #2 ranked Purdue. The Boilermakers are 6-0 and host a Florida State team that is 5-1 with a couple of close wins. One of those close wins took place last Wednesday when the Seminoles needed overtime to scrape by Boston U 81-80 as 17.5 point favorites. Purdue has covered the number four straight times, including neutral court wins over North Carolina and Villanova. So this looks to be a challenge for FSU. We don’t like the idea of laying points though. What we do like is the Under. Florida State is going to be without three players, two of them starters - PG Evans and C Ngom. The Boilermakers are holding opponents to 56.5 points on 34.3% shooting here in West Lafayette. But the Seminoles also are holding teams to 38.5% shooting and 63 points/game. That last score (the one vs. Boston U) is misleading because the game went into OT. Play on UNDER

This is an 8* on UNDER

This is today’s first tip in the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament, which takes place down in the Bahamas. We’ve got two programs accustomed to success. After going 26-5 last season and making it to the Sweet 16, Loyola Chicago is off to a 4-0 start. The Ramblers have won all four of those games by double digits, but it’s a step up in competition today as they face Michigan State, who has posted three straight double digit wins for Tom Izzo (following a season opening loss to Kansas). While former coach Porter Moser is now in Oklahoma, Loyola has most of its key players back from last year’s run to the Sweet 16 - save for Cameron Krutwig - and remains an elite defensive team. What we are expecting here though is for the Ramblers to cool off from three-point range. So far, they have shot 45.2% from behind the arc. That’s simply not going to continue. Michigan State is a top three defensive team in the country right now, allowing just 35.2% shooting overall. The Spartans' size is likely to cause problems for the Loyola shooters. After four straight Overs to start the year, the Ramblers are going to stay Under in this one in what should be a tight, defensive-minded affair. The Under is 5-1 in MSU’s last six games as a dog. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

Taking the Over the last time UCLA faced Gonzaga worked out pretty well. Now we obviously remember that game went to overtime. But the Over was already “in the bag” by the end of regulation with the game tied 81-81. Despite losing three starters from a team that went 31-1 (only loss in the National Championship Game), Gonzaga is averaging 93.2 points/game so far this year and just hit triple digits (107) last night against Central Michigan. The fewest points scored by the Bulldogs in any game this season is 84. UCLA is averaging 90.8 points through its first five games. Last night against Bellarmine they scored a season-low 75 as they were 8 of 27 on three-pointers and made just one free throw the entire game. Not only are these the two top teams in the country, both rank in the top ten in scoring nationally (Gonzaga #2, UCLA #8). It should be another high scoring game from these two as the Over is 23-8 when Gonzaga is off a straight up win by more than 20 points (they won by 53 on Monday). Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Robert Morris is still looking for its first win of the season. The Colonials are 0-2 with the losses coming to UCF and Kentucky. It’s definitely not a surprise that they are winless. RMU was getting 16 against UCF (covered) and then 23 against Kentucky. They’ve only scored 59.5 points/game, but did just give up 100 to UK on Thursday. Ohio is 2-0 with wins over Belmont and Cleveland State. The Bobcats put up 92 in the opener before turning in a solid effort at the defensive end vs. CSU, holding the Vikings to 56 points on 38% shooting. Opening the season with three straight road games where you’re a double digit underdog is tough. That’s the situation RMU faces here. We are unsure if they can get the cash like they did vs. UCF, but do expect this to be the Colonials' highest scoring game of the season so far. They’ve shot poorly in each of the first two games, particularly from three-point range where they are at just 24.4 percent. You’ve got to think that number will improve. Ohio shouldn’t have any issues scoring in this game either as they face a team that just gave up 100 points. The Over is 20-8 in RMU’s last 28 games and 10-3 in Ohio’s last 13 home games. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on UNDER

Georgia State opened its season with a very easy 97-37 victory over a non-DI school (Brewton Parker). Northeastern wasn’t as fortunate on Tuesday as they lost 65-58 to Colgate. The Huskies also just missed out on covering the spread as they were 6.5-point underdogs. It was not a solid night at the offensive end as they made only 40% of their total field goal attempts and were 3 of 14 from three. Northeastern did earn a share of the CAA regular season title last season. But they lost their top player to the transfer portal. The good news is that on the defensive end, the Huskies held Colgate to 39.3% shooting. It was a game they could have won as they were up by two at half. Georgia State is not going to score 97 again on Friday as they are facing a “real” opponent for the first time. The Panthers will also give up more than the 37 they allowed in the first game. But don’t expect this game to go Over the total. The Under is 11-4 the last 15 times N’eastern has been a road underdog. In the second game of the year, both teams will struggle to make shots. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is an 8* on UNDER

There’s nothing quite like opening the College Basketball season at 12:30 local time on a Thursday. But that’s the case here in Vermillion as South Dakota hosts Air Force. Expect a low scoring affair in this afternoon's tilt. Air Force was bottom five in the country last year in scoring as they averaged only 58.7 points/game. The fact that the service academy has a height restriction makes sense for flying planes but not for playing basketball. There was a really “learning curve” for the Falcons last season as new coach Joe Scott brough the “Princeton offense” to Colorado Springs. The team really didn’t have the personnel to run the offense effectively. Don’t expect a ton of improvement this year. South Dakota lost its two top players from last season’s squad, so they’ll be scrambling at the offensive end as well. Key to the Coyotes’ success last year was shooting 38.9% from three-point range. They aren’t likely to be that prolific again in 2021-22, at least in the early portion of the campaign. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER

Gonzaga looks unstoppable as they go for the 1st National Championship in program history. They are massive favorites against UCLA Saturday as you just don’t see a double digit spread in the Final Four very often. But it’s the total that has our attention in this National Semifinal. While both teams are 3-1 Under their last four games, this has the potential to be a pretty high-scoring affair. We need not remind you that Gonzaga leads the nation in scoring at 91.6 points/game. They have scored at least 83 in all four Tournament games. This number will likely end up closing as the third lowest total for any Gonzaga game this season. UCLA being off such a low-scoring game (they beat Michigan 51-49 in the Elite Eight) is a big reason for that. But the Bruins scored plenty in the first four Tourney games (remember they were in the First Four). Yes, two of those games went to OT. But they still hit 65 in regulation in all of them and twice hit 73. Those kinds of numbers are reasonable for tonight and should they get there, this game will easily go Over. Gonzaga likes to play fast and UCLA is 5-1 Over this season when the total is 140 to 149.5. Gonzaga is shooting almost 55% from the field and only one of their last 11 games saw a fewer number of total points than this total. Their games average 160.1 total points. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Much has been made of USC’s defense in this Tournament. The Trojans have allowed 58.3 points per game and none of the three teams they’ve faced have been able to shoot better than 37.7 percent. But none of those teams were Gonzaga. The Bulldogs lead the country in scoring at 91.8 points per game and have scored 98, 87 and 83 in their three Tournament games. They shot almost 60 percent from the field against Creighton in the Sweet 16 win. The only concern here for Gonzaga is that they better shoot well again because USC has also been scoring at a high rate. The last two games have seen the Trojans make 57% of their shots and that includes 21 of 35 on three-pointers! So this should be quite the high scoring game in the Elite 8 as both teams should score at least 80. The Over is 39-17 in Gonzaga’s last 56 games and they are an astronomical 55% overall this year! USC is 6-3 Over after a game where they scored 80 or more points. Gonzaga likes to play fast and as a result, this one goes Over. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Oregon has gone Over in eight straight games. We like them to make it 10 against USC in the Sweet 16. Now the last time a Ducks’ game stayed Under, it was against USC. That regular season matchup saw them lose 72-58 in LA. Though they made 7 of 17 three-point attempts, the Ducks were an unsightly 16 of 40 on two-point attempts. That percentage will certainly improve in Sunday’s rematch, even though USC has done an excellent job on defense so far in the Tournament and really all season. With the teams combining for 130 in the first meeting, we only a handful more to send this one Over. Considering they combined to go just 13 of 22 from the charity stripe last month, we should get some more points there in this one. You also can’t forget that Oregon just dropped 95 points on Iowa in their last game. USC has scored 72 and 85 in their two games and shot 57.1% against Kansas. Oregon shot 55% vs. Iowa. Both USC opponents have shot worse than 30%. That can’t continue. The Over is 6-1-1 for USC following a SU win. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER

UCLA had to win three times last weekend. This first one wasn’t easy as they needed overtime to get by Michigan State in the “First Four.” But the Bruins then looked dominant against 6-seed BYU and 14-seed Abilene Christian. Defense was the key against Abilene Christian as only 44 points were allowed. But that was a 14-seed. Now UCLA faces Alabama, who just hung 96 points on Maryland in its Round of 32 game. The Crimson Tide are going for just the second Elite Eight appearance in program history. Nate Oats won’t ever be confused for Nick Saban but the Tide’s second year coach has done a great job at Tuscaloosa. Bama basically averages 80 points per game, a number they have matched or exceeded in four of their last six games. They like to play fast. UCLA does not, but it remains to be seen if they can control the tempo. UCLA does shoot the three well (37%) and Bama allowed Maryland to shoot 53% overall (37% from three). The Terps got to 77 points even though they attempted only seven free throws and made just three. The Over is 8-1 for Alabama following a game where they scored 90 or more points. Play on OVER

AAA

THis is an 8* on OVER

Emotions should be high for this in-state battle of Top 25 teams. Loyola Chicago probably should have been seeded higher, though they did have trouble ousting undermanned Georgia Tech in the first round. The Ramblers won that game 71-60 (they pulled away late) despite allowing the Yellow Jackets to shoot 57.4%. Now they face top seeded Illinois, who shot 57.1% in its 78-49 dismantling of Drexel on Friday. We know Loyola usually plays great defense, but there’s a big difference between the Missouri Valley and one of the best teams in College Basketball. The Fighting Illini average 81.3 points/game and while this is a high O/U for a Loyola game, it’s relatively low for what they’re used to seeing in Champaign-Urbana. The Illini have had only two games this season close with totals in the 130’s. Both were vs. Wisconsin and both went Over. The Over is 6-0 for Loyola this season following a non-conference game and the only previou two times they’ve been an underdog in 2020-21, the game also went Over. Both teams shoot better than 50% overall from the field. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

LSU came up one point short in the SEC Tournament Championship, but if there’s one thing we can count on from the Tigers, it’s that they’ll score in bunches. They average 82.1 points/game, the eighth most in all of College Basketball. In their last 10 games, the Tigers have scored a minimum of 75 points. That’s the good news. The bad news is they gave up more than 70 in all but two of those 10 games. So expect St. Bonaventure, champions of the Atlantic 10 Conference, to score plenty on Saturday afternoon as well. The Bonnies scored 75, 71 and 74 in their three-game A-10 Tourney run. We find it very likely that both teams will score at least 70 points in this one. The Over is 6-1 in St. Bonaventure’s last seven neutral site games. The Over is 7-1 the last eight games where LSU was the favorite. Between these teams, there are nine double digit scorers. This is a really low total for an LSU game. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

Alabama rallied from 15 down to defeat Tennessee in the semifinals. That was a much more difficult endeavor than the quarterfinals when the Crimson Tide blew past Mississippi State 85-48. Today, it’s a bit of a surprise that they face LSU in the SEC Tournament Final. The Tigers have won a couple close games in this tourney, 76-73 over Ole Miss and 78-71 over Arkansas. In yesterday’s upset, they held the second-seeded Razorbacks to 11 points below their season average and to just 6 of 26 from three-point range. Averaging more than 80 points/game, LSU is one of the top offensive teams in the country, but here they run into a team that happens to be #1 in the country in defensive efficiency. Bama really “gave it” to LSU in both regular season games, winning by 30 and 18. In the 30-point rout, they scored 105 points. That won’t happen today. The Under is 5-1 in the Tide’s past six games. The second time these teams played this year, the final score ended up being 78-60 and while it may not wind up as lopsided this time, that’s the number of total points we’re looking for here. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

The Over worked quite well for us in Michigan’s win yesterday over Maryland as the Wolverines shot 51.7 percent, including 10 of 22 on three-pointers. They put up 79 points, their most in a game since a February 25th win over Iowa. So we’re going back to Over today as the Wolverines face rival Ohio State in the first Big Ten semifinal. The Buckeyes had to go to OT to get by Purdue yesterday as it was the second day in a row they blew a double digit lead in the second half. They wound up with 87 points, their most in a game since a loss to Michigan last month. That game soared past the number as it was a 92-87 final. We don’t see nearly 40 fewer points being scored this time, especially since the Buckeyes really struggle at the defensive end of the floor. They are 76th in the country in defensive efficiency, easily the worst among top 10 teams. That’s why they struggle to protect leads. Earlier, we brought up the 79 (points) Michigan scored on Iowa last month as the Hawkeyes are another team that struggles defensively. Look for a lot of points Saturday. The Over is 5-0 the last five times Ohio State has been an underdog. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

So Maryland and Michigan have each gone Under in their last five games. Maryland won Thursday as they erased an early deficit against Michigan State. The score ended up being 68-57, a comfortable win.They are allowing fewer than a 60-point average the past five games. But that streak will obviously be tested here by top seed Michigan. The Wolverines are an elite team at both ends of the floor. Offensively, production did dip the last three games. But you shouldn’t worry about it. These teams played twice in the regular season. Michigan won both. They scored 84 and 87 points. Both games went Over. What’s interesting here is the total is way lower than it was for either regular season matchup. Value? We think so. The Over is 4-0 for both squads their last four games versus teams that have winning records. The Over is also 4-0 the last four times they have played. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament is now down to its semifinals and this event was not without headlines as yesterday Drake got to advance without even playing (its quarter final opponent N Iowa had a positive COVID test). In today’s first semi, top seeded Loyola (ranked #20) will face Indiana State. The Ramblers had no problems in yesterday’s 73-49 beatdown over Southern Illinois. That made it 16 straight games where Loyola has held its opposition below 60 points. The last time they failed to do so was all the way back on January 10th and ironically that was against the team they’ll face here in the semis, Indiana State. The Sycamores won that game 76-71, the first of two times the teams played. (Loyola did win the second 58-48.) The Ramblers average more than 70 points/game, so they can take care of the majority of the scoring today. We do see Indiana State getting to 60, which is probably the key here to the game going Over. This total is REALLY low as ISU’s game vs. Evansville featured fewer than 100 total points. But it’s a new day and the Sycamores are 10-4 Over following a game in which they allowed fewer than 50 points. Loyola has gone Over in five straight neutral site games. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on UNDER

This entire three-game package has almost exclusively featured Big 12 teams and we’ve got two in the top 20 here. Oklahoma, who at one point this season defeated three straight top 10 teams, is limping into the regular season finale. The Sooners have dropped three in a row including two straight to rival Oklahoma State. It was 79-75 in Stillwater Monday as they let the Cowboys shoot 52.9% from the field. Both losses to the Pokes were by four points. Now they face a Texas team that’s off a 14-point win over Iowa State on Tuesday. The Longhorns also beat Kansas last week, which we know is impressive. The first time these teams played, the game went way Over the total (OU won 80-79 in Austin). We look for the rematch to feature a lot less scoring though. Both teams allow a pretty low field goal percentage for the year. Texas was held to 59 points by Texas Tech last Saturday. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is an 8* on UNDER

With both Missouri and Tennessee faltering in recent weeks, might we be looking at the SEC’s two premier teams here? Alabama certainly is in that discussion as they lead the conference with a 13-1 SU record (18-5 overall). The Crimson Tide are deservedly ranked #6 in the country right now, although two of their last three wins have come by four points or less. Now they head to Arkansas, who has won its last seven SEC games and has revenge on the mind Wednesday night. When these teams played in Tuscaloosa last month, the Tide ripped the Razorbacks 90-59. It was over in the first half as Bama took a 42-19 lead into the break. Things are obviously going to be a lot more competitive tonight in Fayetteville. Arkansas is also well rested as they haven’t played in over a week. The expectation is that these teams are going to put up a lot of points, however the Razorbacks are giving up only 63.1 points/game at home. That’ll not only make this one more competitive than last night, but also lower scoring. The fact that Alabama is #2 in defensive efficiency can’t be discounted either. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is 10* on UNDER

Florida State returned from a two-week break (COVID) to defeat Wake Forest 92-85 in overtime Saturday. That final margin of victory wasn’t nearly enough to cover the 13-point spread, but the Seminoles will take the win considering they trailed by two with five seconds left in regulation. They’d let a double digit lead slip away and nearly lost at home for the first time in over two years. Now it’s a Top 25 showdown with #9 Virginia, a team that has lost only one time in 2021. The last eight FSU games have all gone Over, but considering Virginia just held North Carolina to 48 points on Saturday, this one has a good chance of going “the other way.” Plus, the Under has hit 11 straight times when Virginia has visited Tallahassee! As always, Virginia is one of the best defensive teams in the country. They are allowing just 58.8 points/game. They are 5-1 Under in road games. The 48-hour turnaround for both teams will probably result in below average shooting and FSU could again be without Balsa Koprivica. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

Iowa doesn’t have a problem scoring on anybody as they are third in the country with an 87.4 points/game scoring average. They’ve actually failed to hit that average in six straight games, which partly explains why they’re just 2-4 in that stretch. But the Hawkeyes did down Rutgers 79-66 earlier this week and now look to take care of a Michigan State team that is simply not among the elite in the Big 10 anymore, let alone among the elite in the country. The Spartans are a money-burning 4-13 ATS, although they have won two straight games for only the second time in two months. Those wins were against Penn State and Nebraska though, probably the conference’s two worst teams (Nebraska is definitely the worst). They won those games in part because the opponents were terrible shooting from three-point range, but that will almost assuredly not be the case today as Iowa is making 39 percent of its three-point shots. But the Hawkeyes have an issue in that they allow more than 80 points/game on the road. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

A couple games versus a pretty bad Charlotte team is what Middle Tennessee needed last weekend. The Blue Raiders had lost six in a row before that and five of the losses were by more than 10 points. But they defeated the 49ers 66-65 and 73-60, providing a brief glimmer of positivity in what has been a pretty awful season. At 10-5 on the year, Marshall is doing a lot better than MTSU, though they had some unscheduled breaks in January. They did play last weekend though and could only muster a split with Old Dominion despite being favored to win both games. The loss was by one point and the win was by 20. They should win big tonight. The game should also end up being high scoring. The Thundering Herd have scored more than 80 points in three consecutive games. They are basically averaging 80 per game for the entire season. Middle Tennessee does not score very much, but if they can reach 60 (doable!), then the Over is all but assured in this one. The Over is 4-0 the last four times MTSU has been off an ATS win. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

These teams played two weeks ago with West Virginia winning 88-87 as a 2.5-point favorite. While it was a back and forth game, the O/U was never in doubt as the total for the game was 144.5 and the teams went way Over that. The total is even LOWER for tonight’s second meeting, which may be a surprise to some, but this is a matchup we had circled to play the Under all along. The number of total points scored in Morgantown should be viewed as an aberration. The teams went 21 of 41 on three-point attempts, which is way more production than the 13 of 39 average that they combine for on a per game basis this season. The likely significant decrease in 3-point marksmanship tonight should alone account for this game staying Under. But if you need more convincing, note that Texas Tech allows only 56.5 PPG at home. Five of their last seven games have been on the road, which is why we’ve been seeing some higher scoring games from them recently. But in the last home game, they held Oklahoma to only 52 points and that game had just 109 total points scored. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is an 8* on the UNDER

#2 Baylor puts its unbeaten 16-0 record on the line tonight, in what should be its toughest test to date, against #6 Texas. The Longhorns were supposed to face Kentucky in the Big 12-SEC Challenge last weekend. But that game was cancelled. Baylor didn’t have much problem with its SEC opponent, beating what had been a red hot Auburn team, 84-72. The Bears’ average margin of victory for the season is nearly 25 points/game and only one time (an 8-point win over Kansas on 1/18) have they failed to win by double digits. They are top three in the country at both ends of the floor. They’ve gone Over in four straight games, but had gone Under in four straight previous to that. Texas has gone Over in six of its last seven. But we anticipate a lower-scoring affair Tuesday night. This is a pretty high total for both teams. For Texas, if the current number holds, it will be the highest total for any game in 2020-21. The Under has hit the last two times these sides have met. Those games saw just 97 and 101 points scored. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Oklahoma has ripped off three consecutive wins against Top 10 opponents, beating Kansas, Texas and Alabama. What a run that is! Saturday’s win in Tuscaloosa may have been the most impressive of the bunch considering how hot the Crimson Tide were and the Sooners were without their leading scorer. Another starter (Alondes Williams) was also out. Whether or not Williams and/or Austin Reeves (the leading scorer) will play tonight has yet to be determined. But we still like this game vs. Texas Tech to go Over the total. The Red Raiders are also off an impressive win in the Big 12/SEC Challenge, theirs coming at LSU where they scored the game’s final 12 points to make it a 76-71 final score. Texas Tech will be the 4th straight Top 10 team that OU has faced, a murderous stretch for anybody. You’ve got to question how solid the Sooners will be defensively. They give up 79 points/game away from home. Seven of Texas Tech’s last eight games have gone Over and their defense, which is usually very good, has been shaky of late as well. They’ve allowed 88 and 71 points the last two outings. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER

Gonzaga keeps rolling as Thursday’s 90-62 victory over San Diego makes it 16 wins without a loss for the #1 ranked team in the country. There are only three unbeaten teams left in College Basketball. Them, #2 Baylor and a Drake team whose season was interrupted by COVID. Believe it or not, tonight marks the first time all year the Zags have had to play a second straight game on the road. We certainly don’t have to worry about them scoring though. They lead the country with 94.1 points per game. But the fact they allow 76.4 on the road is notable and leads us to believe this game vs. Pepperdine is going Over. Pepperdine just beat BYU, by the way. That was here in Malibu. In the two home games before that, both of which the Waves won, they scored 80+ points. So you can see why the total has been set high tonight. But in our estimation it is not high enough. Both teams are 6-1 Under their last seven games, which includes a meeting in Spokane that Gonzaga won 95-70. But the total is lower this time. If the teams were to equal the total number of points scored in the first meeting, it would be an Over. We think more points will be scored. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

Watch this game get high-scoring in a hurry. Iowa averages 90.7 points per game. That’s second most in the country (Gonzaga is #1). So it sure was shocking to see the Hawkeyes score a season-low 69 in their last game. That loss to Indiana snapped a five-game win streak. They’d also covered the number in all five of those wins. Safe to say you can look for a bounce back game at the offensive end tonight. They are still #1 in the country in offensive efficiency. After making only 21.3 percent of their three-pointers vs. Indiana, you’ve got to expect more prolific shooting tonight. But we are concerned about their defensive play. The Hawkeyes are giving up 83.2 points per game when they are not the home team this season. Illinois averages 82.9 points per game. The Over is 10-5 in Iowa games. Illinois shoots better than 50% from the field - for the season. The Over is 7-2 in the Illini’s last nine home games against teams that have winning road records. Neither side will have an issue scoring here. Play on OVER

This is an 8* on UNDER

BYU has played well of late. The Cougars have won four in a row and eight of their last nine. The lone loss was to Gonzaga. This afternoon they travel to face a Pepperdine team they just beat on Saturday by a score of 65-54. That was the Waves’ fourth loss in their last six games. You’ll note the low-scoring nature of the previous contest as BYU only shot 37.5% that game, but they might as well have “made them all” compared to Pepperdine’s paltry 28.8 FG%. For BYU, it was the second lowest field goal percentage for a game this season. It was Pepperdine’s lowest. Maybe the two teams combined to score more this afternoon, but it still won’t be enough to send this rematch Over the total. The Under is 5-0 in BYU road games as they go from averaging 77.8 points/game at home to 61.3 away from home. The key issue is that they shoot only 28.8% from three-point range on the road. Pepperdine is holding visiting teams to 27.9% from behind the arc this season while at the same time being a poor three-point shooting team. Five of the Waves’ last six games have stayed Under. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

Auburn comes into this game having covered four straight, but they’ve won straight up just twice in the last seven tries. It was a disappointing 75-73 loss at Arkansas earlier in the week and now they head to South Carolina to face a Gamecocks team who is in no better shape. South Carolina has been battling COVID issues all season as coach Frank Martin is just now returning from his second absence. The Gamecocks seemingly are finally healthy now, though they’ve lost two in a row, both on the road. Auburn is also as close to full strength as they’ve been all year with Sharife Cooper having rejoined the lineup on January 9th. Cooper has made the Tigers a more explosive team offensively as they’ve scored 90 or more twice since his arrival. But Martin’s South Carolina teams always seem to give Auburn some trouble. Auburn has lost three in a row here in Columbia - by an average of 13.3 points/game. The Gamecocks are great at defending the three-point line (30.7% allowed), getting rebounds (1st in SEC) and forcing turnovers (16.6 per game). So this could very well be a fairly low-scoring affair. Auburn is one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the country, which helps when playing the Under. The Tigers are 6-2 Under as underdogs this season. Play on UNDER

AAA

THIS IS A 10* ON UNDER

Though it’s an early start time Friday (Noon local), we expect Wright State to “show up” for this Horizon League tilt. Despite its current second place standing, the Raiders are probably the best team in this conference as they demonstrated last week when they crushed 1st place Cleveland State by 36. WSU allowed just 49 points in that game and shouldn’t have much trouble slowing down an IUPUI team that averages only 60.0 points at home. But the “catch” here is that IUPUI is only allowing 63.3 points/game at home. The Jaguars upset Northern Kentucky twice last week, winning 74-69 and 65-63 as an underdog of eight and seven points respectively. Those wins came on the road too. They’ve played just seven games because of COVID and the last two at home were played three weeks ago, both vs. Cleveland State. They allowed 59 and 65 points those two games. The Under has hit in all three IUPUI games this season. From a field goal percentage standpoint, Wright State’s defense is as good as it gets, limiting foes to 37.6. This should be a low-scoring, early game. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Big game here with unbeaten Baylor (#2 in the country) taking on Kansas (#6). The Jayhawks will almost certainly be LOWER in the rankings by tipoff as they lost their most recent game, which was all the way back on Tuesday, 75-70 at Oklahoma State. Defensively speaking, the Jayhawks were terrible in that game as they gave up 37 fast-break points. They’ll need to be better against Baylor, but will it even matter? The Bears average 91.2 points/game in Waco and coming off two subpar offensive efforts, we see them regaining their touch tonight. The Bears’ defensive numbers are outstanding, but Kansas will be the best offensive team they’ll have faced so far. After playing Texas Tech on Saturday, how much will Baylor have left in the tank defensively? It’s a tough turnaround. The Over has hit in four of Kansas’ previous five games. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

FIU is averaging 88.6 points/game so far, but that number will almost assuredly start to come down. The lofty scoring average has more to do with whom the Panthers have faced thus far. They just hung 113 on Carver Bible, a performance that you certainly shouldn’t put much stock in. Two games ago, FIU went to double overtime with Ga Southern, so that point total was artificially inflated. Bottom line: their hot shooting to start this season is due to cool off. Old Dominion hasn’t shot well on the road (39.4%) nor from three point range anywhere (27% overall). This figures to be among the highest totals for any Monarchs game all season. A team that doesn’t shoot it well away from home going against a team due for a downturn in shooting has all the makings of an Under, particularly on New Year’s Day when both teams could be a bit “sleepy.” This is our top total of the month from Conference USA. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is an 8* on UNDER

Minnesota has had a very impressive last three games as they’ve knocked off St. Louis (who was undefeated at the time), Iowa (a top 10 team) and Michigan State (by 25 points). However, all three of those wins did come at home. Tonight they hit the road to face Wisconsin and the Golden Gophers certainly hope this goes better than their only previous road game did. A 92-65 loss at Illinois is the only blemish on Minnesota’s resume this season and while losing to one of the best teams in the country isn’t a big deal, getting blown out is never a good look. Wisconsin isn’t going to be in a good mood here as they are off a loss to Maryland which snapped a 5-0 SU and ATS run. Both teams have been going Over a lot recently, but we see that changing here as the Badgers allow just 57.9 points/game at home. This will be Minnesota’s fifth consecutive game against a team that entered either unbeaten or ranked in the Top 15. These teams met twice last season and the totals for those games were 129 and 125.5. This one is much higher. Wisconsin plays at a very slow pace and Minnesota, who has been getting to the FT line A LOT lately, won’t get there as much today. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Seton Hall probably won’t be the least bit bothered by being the underdog in this game. The Pirates are a perfect 10-0 ATS the past three seasons as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points. Furthermore, they are catching Xavier off its first loss of the season. The Musketeers went down at the hands of #11 Creighton, 66-61, but did at least cover as 7-pt underdogs. These teams met twice last season with the road team, an underdog each time, winning both games. But Seton Hall plus the points isn’t the best course of action tonight, rather it’s playing the Over. Xavier has been a bit of a “scoring machine” as it is averaging 81.6 points/game for the year and 85.1 points/game at home. Seton Hall is averaging 76.7 points/game and gives up 77.0 on the road. This is a game where both teams seem destined to score over 70 points. Considering that, the O/U looks to be too low. The Over is 4-0 the last four times Xavier has been off a SU loss. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

Fresno State and Colorado State haven’t played all that much this season. In fact, Fresno has played just twice - both games against non-board teams (William Jessup and Fresno Pacific). So the fact they are 2-0 really doesn’t mean much coming into the MWC opener. Colorado State is 3-1, their only loss coming in a putrid offensive effort vs. St. Mary’s where they scored all of 33 points. Under is our call in this one as neither team is in much of a rhythm right now. Against Fresno Pacific, who is not even a Division I team, Fresno State could only muster 39.1% shooting from the field, which is just terrible. On the bright side, they’ve held both opponents this year below 35% shooting. Colorado State has held its last three opponents all below 37%. That one stinker vs. St. Mary’s is obviously holding the Rams’ offensive numbers down. But this isn’t really a great offensive team by any stretch. Facing a “real” team for the 1st time this year will be a shock for Fresno State and this game stays Under. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

It’s not been a strong start to the year for Towson, although that was probably to be expected as Tigers’ first three games have come against Virginia, San Francisco and Buffalo. They were the dog in all three games and are a predictable 0-3. It’s been almost a MONTH since we’ve seen them, due to COVID cancellations. Their ATS record is also 0-3. George Mason is also 0-3 ATS, although they did win their last two games SU - beating Howard and VMI. The Patriots’ schedule has obviously been a lot less challenging than Towson’s, however there are several suspensions that GMU is currently dealing with. We like this game to go Over as it’s a low total and the shooting from both sides is due for improvement. Towson has made less than 40% of its field goal attempts thus far, which is insane. They have allowed at least 74 points in every game and unfortunately (for them), we don’t see that changing. George Mason gave up 77 and 70 its first two games. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

Belmont is off and running with a 7-1 start to the season. The Bruins are averaging 80 points/game. The only loss was a bit of a head-scratcher as they fell, as 17.5-point home favorites, to Samford. Of course, Samford is a team that scores plenty of points as was very obvious with that game ending up 96-83. Evansville isn’t going to score anywhere in that neighborhood, however. The Purple Aces are putting up an average of just 65.2 points in their five games so far and only one time have they topped 68. Evansville hasn’t shot well so far as they’re below 40% overall from the field. One area where they’ve REALLY struggled is defending the three-point line. Opponents are making 46% of their threes against the Purple Aces and the two previous teams that visited here hit 55% from behind the arc! You really can’t get any worse than that, so even if Evansville’s actual defense doesn’t improve, the opposition’s shooting will cool off regardless. Belmont is not a great three-point shooting team. This one stays Under. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER

Considering Texas Tech’s defensive prowess, going Over might seem like a “play at your own risk” type situation. But a) the total is low here and b) Kansas can score. The Jayhawks have faced a lot of top teams already and are averaging 81.6 points/game. They are shooting nearly 40% from three! Last time out they went for 95 points. Yes, that was against a terrible Omaha team. But it was also the 4th game of 90 or more points for Kansas this season. We don’t need nearly that many for an Over tonight. Texas Tech has scored 80 or more in four of its seven games. Again, you’ve got to factor in the competition. But asking both Kansas and Tech to score 65 tonight doesn’t seem like it’s asking for much. Kansas likes to play fast, so it will be interesting if they can push the tempo. We think they will - at least enough to have an effect on the scoring. The Over is 6-2 the last eight times Kansas has been an underdog and 7-1 their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. Texas Tech has that same record against .500 or better foes. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

William & Mary has played just one game so far and it was an 86-78 loss to old Colonial rival Old Dominion. The Tribe will now face the Colonials, although again not a conference rival, in George Washington Monday. GW is just 1-4 with the lone win coming against Coppin State. The other four games, losses to Navy, Hampton, UMBC and Delaware, have seen them give up lots of points. Truthfully, it’s been a terrible start for the Colonials. We would never lay points with them, at least right now, but do think the defense is going to improve. Honestly, they haven’t been that bad at the defensive end of the floor, save for the game where they got blitzed by UMBC. Three of the last four opponents have shot less than 41%. William & Mary won’t shoot 50% again like they did vs. ODU. This game was supposed to be played on December 5th, but got rescheduled because of COVID. It’s the first meeting in 17 years between the two Virginia schools. It’ll end up lower-scoring than expected. W&M is 5-1 Under as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

USC looks to rebound from its first loss of the season here, hosting UC Irvine. The Trojans fell 61-58 to UConn last Thursday, shooting only 35.8% in the process. That wasn’t just a season-low in FG%, it was also the 1st time the Trojans were held below 50% overall shooting in a game this year. Their defense has been dominant in holding three straight opponents below 35% shooting. But it’s hard to keep doing that. UC Irvine is off a win where it scored over 100 points, though the opponent (La Sierra?) had a lot to do with that. Still we expect the Anteaters to score more than they’re expected to tonight. The problem will be that they’ve allowed over 80 PPG to Division I opponents thus far and Southern Cal figures to have a big bounce back game at the offensive end. The Over is 4-0 in UC Irvine’s last four road games and 5-1 their last six as an underdog. Play OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on UNDER

Arkansas will look to make it 3 for 3 to open the year when they host UT Arlington Wednesday night. The Razorbacks opened the season by winning by 80 (!) against Miss Valley State and then by 15 against North Texas. UT Arlington is unbeaten against the spread (3-0), but just 1-2 straight up as they suffered close losses to Oklahoma State and Louisiana Tech before beating Northwestern State on Saturday. The fact that Arkansas has scored 142 points in a game is something that caused the oddsmakers to pay attention. So expect high totals the next few games. But the offense quickly came back down to Earth against North Texas, scoring “only” 69 points. They also did a really solid job defensively in that game. Giving up an average of less than 60 points on 33% shooting is something we like to see. UT Arlington has gone Under eight straight times as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points. They are shooting only 29% from three so far. Arkansas is 11-3 Under as a home favorite of more than 12 points. Number is too high here. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER

We get a Top 10 battle Tuesday night with Duke hosting Michigan State. The Blue Devils have definitely had the Spartans number through the years, winning eight of the nine head to head meetings. Both teams struggled to hold onto big leads in their last game and turnovers have been an ongoing issue as well. We expect this to turn into a bit of a shootout. Duke let Coppin State make 10 three-pointers on Saturday. Michigan State obviously possesses a much better shot-making ability than Coppin State. They’ve scored 80 in both games with the Over being 2-0. Duke is no slouch offensively either as Coach K’s charges made 53.1% of its shots in the first game. When these teams played last year, it was all Blue Devils in an 87-75 win that easily surpassed the 142.5 point O/U line. Lots of different names this go around, especially on the Duke side, but the firepower is still there. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

Gonzaga and Kansas would have been two of the favorites to win the NCAA Tournament that was never played last March. The Zags were 31-2 and had already won the WCC Tournament when the season was paused. Kansas was 28-3 (Big 12 Tournament never played, on a 16-game win streak, and many thought they were the best team in the country. These two “blue-bloods” open the 2020-21 season against one another in Fort Myers. Gonzaga has won 30 or more games six of the last nine seasons including each of the last four. Some feel this is Mark Few’s best team ever. They are going to average a lot of points. Florida transfer Andrew Nembhard’s transfer was just granted (he can play immediately), so the roster is even more talented. Gonzaga averaged 87.4 points/game last season. Compared to last season, Kansas isn’t going to be as strong defensively as they were a year ago, due to a couple departures. The Jayhawks have gone Over five straight times as a neutral site underdog. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Washington and Arizona were the Pac 12’s biggest underachievers for the 2019-20 season. Washington finished in last place with a 5-13 conference record and while Arizona ended up a more modest 5th in the standings, that was also well below expectations. This first round tournament matchup is a rematch from the last regular season game for each. Washington won 69-63 in Tucson, which was certainly an upset as the Huskies were 10-point underdogs. We expect this rematch to feature a lot more scoring - from both sides. Prior to upsetting Arizona, Washington’s last four games had all gone Over the total. They’d just scored 90 points in an upset of Arizona State two days prior to winning in Tucson. Arizona had scored 83 in its previous game. They also beat Washington 75-72 in Seattle back in January. What’s interesting about the two games vs. the Huskies is that Arizona made only 26 two-point baskets on 72 attempts. That’s 36%! You have to figure they’ll shoot better today. Play OVER Washington-Arizona

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

St. Mary’s and BYU split their two regular season meetings. Each won a close game at home. The rubber match takes place Monday night in Vegas. For two teams that have spent the season battling it out for “who’s #2?” in the West Coast Conference (Gonzaga obviously #1), a win here all but clinches a NCAA Tournament berth. Both teams ended the regular season at 24-7 overall. But BYU got the #2 spot by finishing 13-3 in conference play while St. Mary’s was 11-5. So St. Mary’s had to play an extra game to get to this tournament semifinal matchup. They beat Pepperdine 89-82 on Saturday. The Gaels last four games have all gone Over the total with them averaging more than 80 points/game. Both games vs. BYU also went Over with the final scores being 81-79 and 87-84.  Look for another high scoring game tonight. All four times St. Mary’s has been an underdog this year, the Over has cashed. The Over is also 7-1 when they play on one or zero days rest. Play OVER St. Mary’s/BYU

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

Minnesota has basically played its way OUT of NCAA Tournament contention. They’ve lost six of their last seven games including three straight close ones. Losses to Maryland, Wisconsin and Indiana have all been by five or less points. All three games also went Over. It’s good deal then for the Gophers that they are getting Nebraska in the regular season finale. The worst team in the Big 10, the Cornhuskers are 2-17 in conference games and have lost 15 in a row. The Under 7-1 in Minnesota games this season when the total is 140 to 149.5 and they are keeping teams below 65 points per game at home. Therefore, look for a total reversal of fortune for the Gophers today. Besides Nebraska, there’s only one other “bad” team in the Big 10 this year and that’s Northwestern who Minnesota recently kept to 57 points. All three home games where Minnesota was favored by 12.5 or more this year have stayed Under. Play UNDER Nebraska-Minnesota

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

A win tonight means Oregon finishes with no worse than a share of the Pac 12 title. At home they are favored to beat Stanford, but look for a low scoring game as the Cardinal are surprisingly one of the better defensive teams in all college basketball. They are 6th in efficiency. They give up 61.9 points per game but Oregon isn’t far behind allowing 64.2 at home. The Ducks lost 70-60 in Palo Alto back in January, a game where they were held to a field goal percentage of only 32.8. Oregon had a huge scoring outburst Thursday vs. Cal (scored 90) but also held the Bears to just 56.  Play UNDER Stanford-Oregon

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

This is a first round game in the WCC Tournament. Both Portland and Santa Clara face a tall mountain to climb as they’ll have to win five times in six days to capture the championship, including needing to beat Gonzaga. Now that we’ve ditched that fantasy, let’s look at the actual matchup. Portland finished last in the WCC with a 1-15 record. They haven’t won a game since January 4th. They are terrible. Santa Clara is the 7-seed in the Tournament and just beat Portland 73-68 on Saturday. That game just finished Under. Look for this one to do the same as Saturday’s game saw the two teams combine to make 18 three-pointers. That won’t happen at a neutral site. Play UNDER Portland-Santa Clara

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

Creighton was on a real roll before running into St. John’s on Sunday. We took the Johnnies in that one as they put up 91 points in a big-time upset. Creighton won’t be giving up nearly that many points tonight though. They are back in Omaha where they - on average - give up far less points per game. While their scoring also goes up, they happen to be facing a Georgetown team that has failed to crack 70 in three of its past four games. The Hoyas have lost all four as they most certainly won’t be joining the majority of the Big East in the NCAA Tournament, save for them winning the conference tourney. With so many players injured, we don’t look for Georgetown to do much offensively in this game. Creighton won’t have to either, which lends itself to a play on the Under. The Under is already 6-2 in Georgetown’s last eight road games. Play UNDER on Georgetown-Creighton

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

When these teams met in Boulder three weeks ago, the game flew Over with Colorado winning 81-74. Not only did the Buffaloes go 30 of 40 from the free throw line, they were 11 of 21 on three-pointers. In fact, they and Stanford combined to go 23 of 42 from three-point range. That was easily one of Stanford’s worst defensive games this season. While them getting to host the rematch will certainly lead to better play on that end, we look for this matchup to go Over again. It may not be as high-scoring as last time, but it doesn’t need to be. In fact, it doesn’t need to be close. The last one went Over by 25 points. Stanford has scored at least 70 points in its last three games with all of those being wins. Colorado just gave up 76 to a bad Cal team and that was at home. Stanford can really shoot the ball well. The Over is 4-0 the last four times they’ve been a home favorite. Play OVER Colorado-Stanford

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

That UCLA is tied for the Pac 12 lead right now is rather stunning. The Bruins have won six in a row to get to 11-5 in conference play and 18-11 overall. This is a team that was basically “left for dead” coming into February. Unless they end up winning the Pac 12 Tournament, we’re not even sure they wind up making the NCAA Tournament. Arizona is considered a lot safer for the Big Dance right now, although they’ve lost two straight to fall 1.5 games behind UCLA and Oregon in the conference. This is a rematch of a game played on Feb 8, won by UCLA 65-52. That win is what began UCLA’s current roll. They held Arizona to just 25.4% shooting (in Tucson) as the Wildcats made just 9 of 36 two-point attempts. It was a similarly awful shooting night for Arizona in their last game as they lost 57-48 to USC. But they are 2-0 SU/ATS this year when they are off a game in which they got held to 60 points or less. Look for Arizona to regain its “shooting touch” tonight, but also for UCLA to keep its hot shooting going. Play OVER Arizona-UCLA

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

Kansas is coming off its biggest win of the season as they won 64-61 at #1 Baylor on Saturday, thus avenging their only conference loss of the season. With #2 Gonzaga having also lost Saturday, expect the Jayhawks (winners of 12 in a row) to be the new #1 when this game vs. Oklahoma State tips off Monday. We played the Under in the Baylor game, which was a winner, and it’s back to playing the total tonight. Only this time we’re looking at the Over due to the opponent being so lax defensively. In our writeup for the Kansas-Baylor game, we went into great detail about just how good both teams are defensively. Well, Oklahoma State is not great defensively. One thing the Cowboys did to impress us though is score 86 points in a win over rival Oklahoma on Saturday. Kansas has scored 87 and 91 points in its last two home games. So all signs point to a high-scoring affair tonight on ESPN. The Jayhawks average 78.7 points/game in Lawrence and the Over has hit the previous three times OSU has been a road underdog of at least 12.5 points. Play OVER Oklahoma St-Kansas

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

Temple is off a wild 93-89 win over UConn. Double overtime was needed to get the victory, which was the second time the Owls prevailed in OT in their last four games. Today they’ll head to East Carolina to face a team not making much noise in the American this year. The Pirates 4-10 conference record has them a loss away from being tied for last place with Tulane, a team that they’ve beaten twice. However, ECU has at least been competitive of late. In the last week, they’ve lost by only three to Cincinnati and by four to Memphis. So Temple should consider itself forewarned. What we expect here is a high-scoring affair. While recent Temple scores have been boosted by overtime, they can still pile up the points today. When they hosted East Carolina on Feb 1, they scored 76 points. The Pirates shot very poorly in that game and should improve on their percentages now that they get to play at home. They’ve scored at least 67 in three of the last four contests. Play OVER Temple-East Carolina

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

This is the game Kansas has been waiting for. Back on January 11th, they lost at home to Baylor by a score of 67-55. Since then they’ve 11 straight wins, seven of those coming by double digits. But top-ranked Baylor isn’t going to roll over here either. The Bears have won 23 straight games. They’ve covered 17 of 25 ball games including 10 of 13 in conference play. Key to this game will be defense. These are two of the top three teams in defensive efficiency in the entire country. Kansas gives up 57.5 points/game on the road. Baylor gives up 56.2 points/game at home. The first game stayed Under by 10 points yet this O/U is just three points lower. Oddsmakers haven’t adjusted enough. The Jayhawks’ OU record in Big 12 games is 9-1. With this game being so important, both teams will be playing lockdown defense. Play on UNDER KANSAS/BAYLOR

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

Harvard trails Yale and Princeton by one game, so getting to host the latter is a big deal tonight. The Crimson won both games last week - 85-63 over Cornell and 77-63 over Columbia. Both were played right here at Lavietes Pavilion. Princeton also got to play twice at home last week, but they split the pair, losing to Yale while beating Brown. The Tigers did defeat the Crimson earlier this season 70-69 on what was a hot shooting night for them from distance (went 13 of 23 on three-pointers). That was the last Harvard game to stay Under as the last four have all gone Over. But Princeton won’t shoot as well this time around. Harvard defends exceptionally well when they’re at home, giving up just 59.4 points/game. Princeton is 6-0 Under this year in games where they came in with 5 or 6 days rest. That includes the two Friday games since Ivy League play started. Don’t forget Harvard is without top scorer Bryce Aiken as well. A lower scoring game than the first matchup, which we think this will be, makes for an easy call on the Under. Play UNDER Princeton-Harvard

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

The SEC as a whole appears to be a bit overrated, but Kentucky still remains the king of this conference in our eyes. The 12th ranked Wildcats enter Saturday at 19-5 overall and 9-2 in SEC play, the latter record landing them in a first place tie with both LSU and Auburn for the time being. UK has won seven of eight with the only loss coming to Auburn and they’ve got a game at LSU on deck. Here they face an Ole Miss team that has covered six in a row. The Rebels are 4-2 in that same stretch, the only SU losses coming to … Auburn and LSU. Both Kentucky and Ole Miss faced double digit deficits in the first half Tuesday before coming back to win handily. We look for this to be somewhat of a low-scoring affair, mainly because Mississippi only averages 61.7 points/game on the road. Kentucky gives up only 62.9 points/game at home. The key then becomes how well the Rebels can defend. Seeing as how they’ve held the last five opponents to below 40% shooting, we think the answer is “well.” Six of the Rebels seven road games this year have stayed Under. Play UNDER Ole Miss/Kentucky

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Akron just notched a pretty big win, beating MAC-leading Bowling Green 74-59. That the Zips were a 6.5-point favorite for that contest should tell you who oddsmakers think is the best team in this conference. Tonight’s game is against a wounded Central Michigan team that has lost two in a row. Tuesday, the Chippewas lost 73-70 at home to Eastern Michigan. They were outscored 45-35 in the second half. It was a much different showing that what they turned in their own home win over Bowling Green where CMU finished with 92 points. Make no mistake about it - the Chippewas are one of the highest scoring teams in the country. They average 81.3 points/game, which is sixth most in the entire country. The offensive numbers at home are eye-popping. It’s a 90.3 point/game average here. That’s enough to convince us that Over is the correct call here. Akron isn’t going to match the defensive efforts from its last two games. But they should hit their 76.0 point/game average. Play OVER Akron/Central Michigan

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

Playing on FS-1 was kind to #19 Butler on Wednesday as they beat #10 Villanova at the buzzer 79-76. They are hoping history repeats itself Sunday when they travel to face a well-rested Marquette team that’s 11-1 at home and been off for eight days. The last time Marquette played, they came from behind to defeat last place DePaul 76-72. They’ll obviously take the win, but it ended a 5-game ATS streak as they were 7.5-point favorites. When these teams met last month at Hinkle Fieldhouse, it was an 89-85 Butler win. Marquette hoisted 38 three-pointers and made 16 of them. But it still wasn’t enough. We look for the rematch to be a lot lower scoring. It must be noted that the first meeting did go to overtime. It was 71-71 at the end of regulation. Both teams are solid defensively as Marquette gives up only 63.8 points/game at home while Butler gives up just 60.6 points/game period. The Under is 4-1 in the five games so far where Butler has been an underdog. Play UNDER Butler-Marquette

AAA

analysis soon

This is a 10* on the OVER

Louisville is ranked #5 in the new polls, the highest ranking for any ACC team. That makes sense as the Cardinals are the first place team in the ACC with a 10-1 record. They’ve won eight straight games and five of those were on the road. Hosting Wake Forest tonight should lead to another win. But the Demon Deacons are getting a lot of points. So let’s instead focus on the fact all but one of WF’s 11 ACC games have gone Over the total. The “one” was the last game they played, a 56-44 win against Clemson, an awful shooting night for both sides. Look for Louisville to put up plenty of points here. Two of Wake’s last three road games have seen them give up 90. Wake should score at least 65 here, making the Over an easy call here. Play OVER Wake Forest-Louisville

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

North Carolina’s season-long struggles are well documented at this point. The Tar Heels, who just lost as 12-point favorites to Boston College on Saturday, are 10-11 overall and it would take a miracle run in the ACC Tournament for them to get into March Madness. But at least Cole Anthony is now back and he scored a team-high 26 in the 71-70 loss to BC. The struggles of UNC and some other ACC squads has resulted in a top-heavy conference in 2020 with three top 10 teams and no one else guaranteed to make the Big Dance. One of those top teams is Florida State, who did lose a game last week (61-56 at Virginia), but then quickly bounced back with a 74-63 win at Va Tech on Saturday. Both games last week were road games for the Seminoles. Back in Tallahassee we are likely to see more scoring from them tonight. They are averaging 82.8 points at home where they have won all 10 times. North Carolina averages a solid 71.5 points/game and now has Anthony back, but defense is their issue. Only two ACC opponents have been unable to hit 71 points on Roy Williams team. FSU has gone Over in four straight and the Over is 10-1 for them at home when the number is 140 to 149.5. Play OVER North Carolina-Florida State

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER 

Austin Peay has been nothing short of incredible since conference play began. The Governors have opened with nine consecutive wins over OVC teams and have covered the spread in all nine games. They are headed for an eventual showdown with Murray State, who also has a 9-0 conference record, but the two unbeatens won’t play until Feb 13. Not only is Austin Peay unbeaten in conference play, they also have a 10-0 record at home, which is where they’ll be Saturday vs. Eastern Illinois. The visiting Panthers are five games off the pace set by Austin Peay and Murray State in the OVC and just lost to Murray State two nights ago, 73-70. They did easily cover the 11-point spread though in a game effort. The loss snapped a four-game win streak. We’re going Under in today’s matchup as Austin Peay just held its last opponent (SIU Edwardsville) to 58 points and Eastern Illinois tends to not do much scoring on the road. EIU is 6-1 Under this season playing with one or zero days rest and their last two games both went Under. Play UNDER Eastern Illinois/Austin Peay

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

IUPUI and Cleveland State are at the bottom of the Horizon League. IUPUI’s 89-85 win against Oakland on Saturday required overtime and was just their second conference win of the year. The only Horizon League game the Jaguars were favored to win, they lost, and that was against Cleveland State on December 30th. The Vikings won that game 82-80 on a buzzer beater, but look for the rematch to feature a lot less scoring. The Under is 5-0-1 in Cleveland State’s past six games and they just held Milwaukee to 53 points in a win Saturday. The Under is also 6-0 this season for them when the total is 140 to 149.5. This is also an offensively challenged team that averages only 63.4 PPG. In that December 30th meeting, both sides shot north of 50 percent, something we don’t see taking place this time around. Play UNDER IUPUI-Cleveland State

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

It’s been a pretty disappointing season for Utah State. Like everyone else in the Mountain West, they are left staring up at San Diego State, the only team in the country still undefeated. The MWC had belonged to Utah State the last couple seasons, but they’ve been upset four different times in 2019-20, leaving them with a 15-6 overall record. But at home the Aggies are still pretty lethal. They average 86.4 points/game in Logan where they’ve lost only one time and that was to San Diego State. Scoring on Colorado State shouldn’t prove too difficult tonight, but defending the Rams is a whole different matter. CSU has won five straight games and averaged 86.4 points/game in doing so. They just dropped 86 on Fresno State Wednesday night. The two times these schools met last year, the final scores were 87-72 and 100-96 (both Utah State wins). This is going to be another track meet. Play OVER Colorado State-Utah State

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER 

In case you hadn’t noticed yet, Seton Hall is a really good team. The #18 ranked team in the country just went to Butler and won 78-70. We had the Over in that game, which won by more than 20 points. For the Pirates, it was the seventh consecutive win and cover. They are certainly poised to make a jump in next week’s rankings providing they can take care of business here against St. John’s. It won’t be easy. But again we like the Over. St. John’s has its own seven-game streak coming into this game, only with the Under. Obviously, we look for that to end Saturday. The Johnnie’s are coming off a loss at Providence where they did not shoot well. But at home they average 79.5 points/game, a big reason why they have a 10-2 record here in NYC. Seton Hall averages 75.2 points/game, so this one shouldn’t have much trouble going Over. During their win streak, the Pirates have failed to score at least 74 points just once. Play OVER Seton Hall-St Johns

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

Marshall was going Over quite a bit at the start of the year. Through the first 11 games, the Over was 8-3. But since then, scoring has curtailed some with the Under hitting in four of the last five. Speaking of Unders, that’s the way Charlotte’s previous six games have all gone. But we look for a different type game Thursday in Conference USA. There has been some unusually poor shooting in Charlotte games recently. Both they and their opponents have shot below 39%. That’s pretty incredible and something unlikely to continue. Marshall is still scoring 77.3 points/game at home, so look for them to score more than Charlotte’s recent opponents have. The Thundering Herd are coming off a road loss to UAB where they scored 50 points and were held to 33.3%. A return to Huntington will get them going again. The Over is 15-8 for Charlotte in the 49ers previous 23 games with a total of 130 to 139.5. Play OVER Charlotte-Marshall

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

Good matchup tonight in the Big East with #5 Butler playing #18 Seton Hall on FS-1. Both squads have been cashing plenty of tickets this year as Butler is 11-4 ATS while Seton Hall is 12-4 ATS. Both have won their last six games straight up with Seton Hall covering all six times and Butler being 4-2 ATS with the two non-covers coming by a combined 2.5 points. Look for this game to go Over the total. While both teams are certainly capable of playing good defense, they don’t have any problems putting the ball in the hoop either. Seton Hall averages 75.1 points/game. Butler averages 68.8 points/game. You can look for Seton Hall to be the fifth team to top 60 points on the Butler defense. Meanwhile, Butler is shooting almost 48% from the floor for the season. The Over is 6-2-1 the last nine times Seton Hall has been the underdog. Play OVER Seton Hall-Butler

AAA