NFL Archive | |||||||
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
01-02-22 | Lions +7 v. Seahawks | 29-51 | Loss | -105 | 56 h 54 m | Show | |
The Seahawks are not going to play offs, and will now be in a emotional down situation here this week vs a rejuvenated Detroit side that will motivated to finish their season on a strong note. Note: Seattle probably does not deserve a play off spot anyway, considering they have lost the stats battles in 12 of 15 games. this seasons ,by an average -82 net ypg. Seattle is 0-5 ATS in their last five battles against the NFC North. The Lions are 5-1 ATS record in NFC West game and have covered four straight vs NFC. Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. Seahawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 17. DETROIT is 6-0 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season this season. DETROIT is 8-2 ATS in games played on turf this season. NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SEATTLE) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 15-45 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Seattle to cover |
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01-02-22 | Dolphins +3.5 v. Titans | 3-34 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 13 m | Show | |
Since star RB Derrick Henry went on the IR the Titans have been in a bit of nose dive, and until he returns things wont get much better including today against a up trending Dolphins side that is on a 7 game win streak. Note : NFL sides on a 7 game win streak, are on a 12-1 ATS run when coming off a non-division victory. (Miami beat NO last week 20-3). Tennessee has had problems scoring since Henry went down, and recently during a 5 game run have averaged just 15.8 ppg in offense. On the flipside the Fins have allowed just one side more than 17 points in their L/7 games overall. MIAMI is 12-3 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. MIAMI is 9-1 ATS after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. TENNESSEE is 20-35 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992. NFL team vs the money line (TENNESSEE) - average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 5-35 L/5 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate. Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Play on Miami to cover |
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01-02-22 | Jaguars +17 v. Patriots | 10-50 | Loss | -117 | 52 h 58 m | Show | |
The Jags are on a 7 game losing streak and have failed to cover 6 straight times, but here I am recommending we take the points . This offering from a mathematical standpoint according to my projections is a almost a full FG off , giving us value taking points. Last week the Pats got a reality check against the Bills in a loss and QB Mac Jones showed his relative immaturity in that loss. Desperation and some sort of redemption for this Jaguars side Im betting has them leaving everything on the field this Sunday. Jaguars have covered 3 of their L/4 as 13 or more points pups dating back to last season. Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings. NFL Road underdogs or pick (JACKSONVILLE) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 37-7 L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Jacksonville Jaguars to cover |
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12-26-21 | Steelers v. Chiefs UNDER 46.5 | 10-36 | Win | 100 | 52 h 44 m | Show | |
Pittsburghs offense has been highly inconsistent this season, and have scored 20 or less points in 5 of their L/8 trips to the gridiron. Here today vs a KC side that is playing at a very high level behind a strong D, Im expecting another muted offensive effort from the Steelers. It must be noted that before their last outing where they allowed 28 points, the Chiefs had given up 17, 7,14, 9, 9, 9 points respectively. On the flip-side, the Steelers achilles heal has been their rush defense, and today I expect Reid and company to pound the ball in anticipation of an expected success rate, which in turn will eat plenty of clock time and help the combined score stay on the low side of the total. Steelers have gone UNDER in 19 of their L/ 21 non-division away Tilts when the Total is set at 53 or less points. Under is 6-0-1 in Steelers last 7 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. KANSAS CITY is 38-18 UNDER as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points with a combined average of 39.7 ppg scored. KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more yards/play this season with a combined average of 31.7 ppg scored. NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (PITTSBURGH) - after gaining 200 or less total yards in their previous game are 90-44 UNDER L/38 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Kansas City. Play the UNDER |
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12-26-21 | Lions +6.5 v. Falcons | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 49 h 14 m | Show | |
Jared Goff went 21-of-26 for 216 yards and three touchdowns in the Lions 30-12 win against the Arizona Cardinals last week as 13-point home underdog, which was the Lions 2nd victory in 3 games. Now with momentum on their sides, Im betting they once again stand tall against a Atlanta team that has not liked playing in their new digs , where they are 0-5 this season while averaging just 13.2 ppg in offense while allowing 28 ppg which clicks in at - 14.8 ppg diff. Nothing comes easy for the Falcons and if they break their home losing streak it wont come easily if at all which has me recommending we take the points here. ATLANTA is 1-9 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. Falcons are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC. Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings. Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Play on the Detroit Lions to cover |
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12-26-21 | Jaguars +2 v. Jets | 21-26 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 2 m | Show | |
Ok Get ready this is a plug your nose special. Im betting the stench of the Urban Meyer experiment has cleared. With that said, Jacksonville will be ready to start a new chapter and in the short term at least show some motivational progress vs a Jets team that could also use some air freshener and a proverbial deep cleaning. Both these teams struggle to score, but the difference maker comes on defense where I feel the edge goes to the Jags . Note: Jacksonville is 8-0 ATS as a underdog against AFC East opposition , including 4-0 SUATS L/4. Jets are 3-10 ATS L/14 at home as 4 or less point home favs. NY JETS are 1-10 ATS L/10 in home games vs. struggling teams - outscored by 10+ points per game on the season. NY JETS are 0-7 ATS after allowing 25 points or more in 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons. NY JETS are 4-16 ATS off a road cover where the team lost as an underdog. NFL team vs the money line (NY JETS) - bad team - outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after allowing 30 points or more in 3 straight games are 3-25 L/5 seasons for a 89% go against conversion rate for bettors. NFL Home teams (NY JETS) - average offensive team (4.9 to 5.4 YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.4 to 5.8 YPP) are 20-47 ATS L/5 seasons for go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Jacksonville to cover |
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12-25-21 | Colts +1 v. Cardinals | 22-16 | Win | 100 | 35 h 27 m | Show | |
After a fast start to their season, the Cardinals are now just 3-4 SU/ATS L/7 and not in good form entering this tilt vs the under rated Colts. It seems ever since JJ Watt went down so did the chemistry of the Arizona defense. With some key injures on offense for the Cards ie( Hopkins), and a bruised and banged up QB Murray looking less than 100% the Colts look like a very viable option here behind star RB Johnathon Taylor. Im betting the Colts pound their way to a road win and continue their upward momentum after ending the Pats 7 game win streak last time out. Note: Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog. Colts are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. Injury updates: Colts 3 of 5 starting offensive lineman will miss this game -Quinton Nelson (COVID list), Mark Glowinski (COVID list), and Ryan Kelly (personal)- which has moved this line . When handicapping this game 2 of these guys were part of my assessments . It must be noted that the replacements for the Colts are fresher, almost equally talented as the starters. INDIANAPOLIS is 9-1 ATS in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons. INDIANAPOLIS is 9-1 ATS in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons. Reich is 11-0 ATS in road games after having won 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of INDIANAPOLIS. ARIZONA is 0-7 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. ARIZONA is 1-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Cardinals are 9-23 ATS in their last 32 games as a home favorite.Cardinals are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games. NFL Underdogs vs. the money line (ARIZONA) - after allowing 30 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half are 2-37 L/38 seasons for a go against 95% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Indianapolis to cover |
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12-21-21 | Seahawks v. Rams UNDER 46 | 10-20 | Win | 101 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
These divisional rivals have a recent history of fairly low scoring affairs as is evident by a 37.8 ppg combined score in their L/4 meetings overall. History does not always necessarily repeat itself but it does have a tendency to mimic it. LA RAMS are 7-0 UNDER in home games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 37.9 ppg scored. SEATTLE is 7-1 UNDER against conference opponents this season with a combined average of 37.6 ppg scored. Carroll is 16-7 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points as the coach of SEATTLE with a combined average of 41.1 ppg scored. Arizona has gone under in 13 of their L/14 in games in the 2nd of back to back road games. Rams have gone under in 6 of their L/7 after a MNF affair. Division games have a tendency of generally being hard fought conservative affairs late in the season usually from game 11 onward into the play offs ( line of 44.5 to 60) as is evident by a 225-143-5 UNDER run for a 61% conversion rate for bettors. NFL team against the total (SEATTLE) - good rushing team - averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 39-14 L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. NFL team against the total (LA RAMS) - off a road win against a division rival, with a winning record on the season playing a losing teams are 33-13 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-19-21 | Saints +11.5 v. Bucs | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
I know how strong a side TB is but after last weeks record setting event behind future HOG QB Tom Brady that saw them pull out a win in OT vs Buffalo Im betting will now have this team in a natural letdown spot. Meanwhile, Saints remain in the playoff hunt after their victory on the road vs the Jets last week and have motivation and momentum entering this tilt. Note: The Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last seven division r away games. I know which side is the better group, but the great thing about spread betting is that there are edges to be had, taking points with under rated sides. This Im betting is one of them. NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.NEW ORLEANS is 9-1 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game over the last 3 seasons. NFL away team in a tilt in Sunday Night events that is coming off a victory of more than 10 points and than going against opposition coming off a pair of wins who won 10 or more games last year are 11-1-1 ATS L/41 seasons. NFLHome favorites (TAMPA BAY) - with an incredible offense - averaging 385 or more total yards/game, after gaining 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 12-36 L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on New Orleans to cover |
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12-19-21 | Bengals +3 v. Broncos | 15-10 | Win | 100 | 57 h 9 m | Show | |
The Broncos honored the late Demaryius Thomas who suddenly died at age 33 the week of this game vs Detroit. The Broncos left everything on the field that day as they took out the banged up Lions by a 38-10 count. Now in a huge emotional letdown state I betting they will not have the energy needed to get the.cover here vs a Bengals side that is desperate for a win. Note: Bengals QB Joe Burrows is a perfect 3-0 ATS when this team is off 2 consecutive losses. Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.Bengals are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Denver. Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC. Cincinnati to cover |
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12-19-21 | Texans +5 v. Jaguars | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 54 h 57 m | Show | |
Urban Meyer’s short and ugly tenure here in Jacksonville looks to be almost completed . Its been a horrendous season , Meyer has blamed his coaching staff for the problems which has put the entire team in disarray. The Jags have now lost 5 straight and really don't deserve to be this big a favorite , not even against another slumping side the Houston Texans. ....Advantage Texans. HOUSTON is 14-4 ATS L/18 after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games. JACKSONVILLE is 0-6 ATS in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. JACKSONVILLE is 0-6 ATS after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game over the last 2 seasons. JACKSONVILLE is 2-16 ATS L/18 in home games off 3 or more consecutive unders. NFL Underdogs or pick (HOUSTON) - after a game where they committed no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 25-3 ATS L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. Texans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Jacksonville. The underdog has cashed 4 of the L/5 meetings. Play on Houston to cover |
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12-19-21 | Texans v. Jaguars UNDER 39.5 | 30-16 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 47 m | Show | |
The Jags average 13.8 ppg on offense this season and Houston average 13.6 ppg. These teams have problems moving the ball and nothing changes here today in sunny humid Florida. JACKSONVILLE is 10-0 UNDER when playing with 6 or less days rest this season with a combined average of 36.8 ppg scored. JACKSONVILLE is 8-0 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread this season with a combined average of 35.9 ppg scored. Meyer is 6-0 UNDER (after scoring 14 points or less last game as the coach of JACKSONVILLE with the combined score clicking in at 33 ppg. Under is 4-0 in Jaguars last 4 vs. AFC.Under is 6-0 in Jaguars last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 4-0 in Jaguars last 4 home games. . NFL home favorites that off a division road shutout defeat like the Jaguars have gone a perfect 0-12 UNDER since 1996 when the Totals line is 38 points or more. Houston has gone under in 3 straight divisional road games . Under is 5-0 in Texans last 5 games as a road underdog.Under is 5-0 in Texans last 5 vs. AFC. NFL Home teams against the total (JACKSONVILLE) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, struggling team, winning 25% or less of their games, in the second half of the season are 31-7 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-18-21 | Patriots v. Colts -2 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 37 h 47 m | Show | |
Indianapolis has won 4 of their L/5 with the one loss coming to defending champion Tampa Bay by a 38-31 count. Meanwhile, the Pats have been the storyline in the NFL this season, as Bill Belichick cements his future HOF status. The Pats enter this game on a 6 game road winning run, but with said, all good and bad streaks must eventually come to an end and Im betting thats the case here in Indy today. Ive kept a close eye on the Colts, and after watching them decimate the Bills, Ive come to the conclusion that they are very under rated and with the publics attention squarely on the Pats Ill lay the light lumber with the home side at under a FG. Right or wrong the sharp money will flow into the Colts column. Colts are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Home team has covered 5 of the L/6 meetings in this series. INDIANAPOLIS is 11-2 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 2 season. NFL team (NEW ENGLAND) - off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog, when playing on a Saturday are 9-32 ATS L/38 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Indianapolis to cover |
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12-16-21 | Chiefs -3 v. Chargers | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 26 h 9 m | Show | |
The Chiefs during their current six-game winning streak, have forced 16 turnovers and allowed an average of 311.7 yards and just 10.9 ppg. The D, is merging at a high level with the offense, and in their current form are in top form and a formidable opponent for the Chargers . Add to that Reid and company have revenge on board for a loss suffered in last September back in KC and you have a viable favorite to back this Thursday night. Reid is 21-8 ATS in road games revenging a home loss against opponent in all games he has coached . The Chiefs have won seven straight road games against the Chargers. Note: Road favorites in ’ Thursday games have won by an average of -10.1 points per game this season. Rinse and repeat bet here in motion with the Favorite. KANSAS CITY is 7-0 ATS vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 2 seasons.KANSAS CITY is 7-0 ATS after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Reid is 7-0 ATS after 3 straight wins by 10 or more points as the coach of KANSAS CITY. LA CHARGERS are 2-13 ATS after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.LA CHARGERS are 1-9 ATS after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs over the last 3 seasons. NFL Home teams (LA CHARGERS) - out-gaining opponent by 70 or more passing yards/game on the season, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 13-36 ATS L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on KC Chiefs to cover |
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12-13-21 | Rams +2.5 v. Cardinals | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
Arizona QB Murray is an exciting athlete, and this sometimes overshadows his teams overall performances especially on D , where they have been out-yarded in 3 of their L/5 games. Add to that Arizonas 1-7 ATS record in its L/7 tilts as a division host, and you have what Im betting against is an over rated side. Meanwhile, the Rams after a rough run -came out last time out with a get right effort winning by a 37-7 vs Jacksonville and now have momentum heading in this prime time tilt. Note: Arizona has failed to cover 10 of their L/12 at home on Monday Nights . Cardinals HC Kingsbury is 0-4 SU/ATS L/4 at home as a 6 or less point favorite. McVay is 10-2 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of LA RAMS. McVay is 21-11 ATS in road games against conference opponents as the coach of LA RAMS. Rams are 4-0 SU/ATS L/4 divisional battles and have won their L/2 visits to Arizona and are 8-1 ATS L/9 meetings overall in this series. ARIZONA is 0-6 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. ARIZONA is 0-6 ATS in home games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons NFL Road underdogs or pick (LA RAMS) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games are 27-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the LA Rams to cover |
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12-13-21 | Rams v. Cardinals UNDER 52 | 30-23 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
This divisional game Im betting will be a hard fourth grinding affair. I know anything involving QB Murray of Arizona is looked at as a point fest. However, because of the importance of this game for these teams, and the usual inter divisional biases, taking the under here looks to be a viable betting option in what Im betting will be a chess like lower scoring affair. Arizona is 0-7 UNDER L7 as divisional Home Favorites and from a historical perspective Arizona is 0-8 UNDER in their L/8 Monday night appearances. ARIZONA is 7-0 UNDER after gaining 150 or less passing yards in last game over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 38.1 ppg. LA RAMS are 7-0 UNDER after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 37.7 ppg scored. LA RAMS are 9-1 UNDER after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 season with a combined average of 40.3 ppg scored. NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (LA RAMS) - versus division opponents, off a home win are 104-58 UNDER L/37 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-12-21 | Bills +3.5 v. Bucs | 27-33 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 34 m | Show | |
This tilt behind top tier sides Buffalo and Tampa Bay has the makings of game that will decided late and by one score, most probably a FG according to the linesmakers, making getting the hook with the points a strong opportunity for bankroll expansion. Tom Brady is the marquee name in this tilt, and lives with a cloak of invincibility around him, but he's not made of titanium, and eventually father time will get the best of him. Actually Ive noticed his legs have let him down on more than one occasion the last few seasons, and today vs a fast and explosive Buffalo D, his lack of mobility wont allow him the time he usually gets . What Im saying is that if TB wins it wont come easily. Advantage on the line goes to the Bills. BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. The Buccaneers have been favored by 3.5 points or more 10 times this season and are 5-5 ATS in those contests. Buccaneers are 3-10-2 ATS in their last 15 games in Week 14. Buffalo is 5-2 overall, and 5-2 against the spread, on the road.The Bills are 4-2 ATS as 3.5-point underdogs or more on the road. NFL Underdogs or pick (BUFFALO) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 48-19 ATS L/39 seasons for a 72%. conversion rate for bettors. Note: Bills are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss. Play on Buffalo to cover |
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12-12-21 | 49ers -1 v. Bengals | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 31 h 37 m | Show | |
Both Cincinnati and San Francisco are both off losses. I thought the 49ers should have won their game vs Seattle , and deserve respect here on the road as essentially a pickem vs a Cincinnati team that is off a less than cohesive loss, and downtrending in my power rankings, especially with QB Joe Burrows hand injury( pinky finger). Todays difference maker will come via both sides offenses where the Bengals rank 24th in their passing game and just 20th with their ground attack. While the 49ers are fourth via the pass and ranked sixth with their run game. SAN FRANCISCO is 21-7 ATS off an upset loss as a road favorite CINCINNATI is 0-6 ATS in home games versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Play on San Francisco to cover |
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12-12-21 | Falcons +3 v. Panthers | 29-21 | Win | 100 | 44 h 17 m | Show | |
QB Cam Newton of the Panthers looked horrendous last time out going 5-for-21 for 92 yards in a 33-10 loss to the Dolphins and the coaching staff said they wont make any changes this week. This reminds me of statement by Albert Einstein, that went something like this " doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results is a form of insanity. Yes, maybe Im exaggerating a bit, but thats how I feel about that decision, and feel strongly that the Falcons prove me right this week, at least from a cover standpoint. Note: The Last 14 times that Newton has been the favorite the Panthers have only covered 3 times. I know Atlanta may not inspire bettors, but have been money in the bank from a historical perspective in this series going 9-2 SU/ATS . Note: Yes, the Panthers are well rested and off a bye but the Falcons have cashed 4 of their L/5 against these types of teams. CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS in home games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. CAROLINA is 3-12 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons. NFL Road underdogs (ATLANTA) - in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%) are 23-4 ATS L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Home teams (CAROLINA) - average offensive team (4.9 to 5.4 YPP) against a team with a poor defense (5.4 to 5.8 YPP) are 17-46 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Atlanta to cover |
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12-12-21 | Seahawks v. Texans +9.5 | 33-13 | Loss | -120 | 44 h 5 m | Show | |
This is just to many points even though the Texans don't look like a viable side to back , especially if you watched their last game where they were shutout . But pros do not like to be embarrassed and Im betting on a semblance of a bounce back here from the Texans at home. You have to remember Seattle has not looked good recently despite of finding the win column last time out and have been out-yarded in each of its last 11 trips to the gridiron this season. Bottom line no matter which way I slice it and handicap this game, this is just to many points to pass up on with the pup as the favorite is just being plain over rated. Note: HC Carrol is 1-5 ATS L/6 as a 3 or more road fav and has covered just 5 of this L/16 coming off a SU underdog win. HOUSTON is 14-3 ATS L/17 after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games. HOUSTON is 17-6 ATS L/23 in home games off a home loss. SEATTLE is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. SEATTLE is 0-7 ATS in road games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (HOUSTON) - a horrible offensive team (14 or less PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG), after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 54-22 ATS L/38 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Houston to cover |
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12-09-21 | Steelers v. Vikings -3 | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh is off a huge win last time vs Baltimore to keep their play off hopes alive but now they will be caught in an emotional letdown spot vs a Minnesota Viking side that is desperate for a win after back to back losses including one to formerly winless Detroit last time out. Note: Vikings Zimmer is 25-7-1 ATS in non-division tilts in his career when coming off a defeat, including 11-1 ATS against AFC opposition. Zimmer is 13-3 ATS after a loss by 3 or less points as the coach of MINNESOTA. NFL team (PITTSBURGH) - off an upset win as a home underdog, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season are 4-24 ATS L/38 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover |
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12-05-21 | Washington Football Team v. Raiders UNDER 49.5 | 17-15 | Win | 100 | 79 h 36 m | Show | |
Washingtons D is something special in its current form, despite of mostly sub standard numbers overall. This group is as tough as nails and allowing 17, 19, 21 and 15 points respectively in their L/4 tilts and will not easily be pushed around at the line of scrimmage again this week. On the road the Football team are averaging just a little over 20 ppg in offense Meanwhile, Las Vegas has mostly struggled on both sides of the ball, and finally got their first win 4 tries on the 25th of Nov vs the Cowboys. After that exhausting 36-33 offensive slugfest vs Dallas last time out Im betting on an immediate reversion to the mean offensively for the Raiders this week with the added rust of an extended lay off to hamper their output and this help keep this game stay on the low side of the number. .Dating back to the 2015 season all teams like Washington off 3 straight underdogs wins with a line of 43 or more have gone under 8 straight times. Washington is 5-0 UNDER L/5 vs NDC West sides. WASHINGTON is 10-2 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 37 ppg scored,
Tilts involving non conference conflicts (AFC vs NFC) have only seen 8 of the 32 games eclipse the offered total. Play UNDER |
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12-05-21 | Jaguars v. Rams -12.5 | 7-37 | Win | 100 | 68 h 26 m | Show | |
I dont usually take huge favs, rarely if ever actually, but this is one of those occasions . The Rams are extremely frustrated right now after 4 straight losses, and need a win badly to get back some long lost respect. Meanwhile, Jacksconville behind QB Lawrence and a less than cohesive offense wont be able to do much damage here this week, while the Rams no matter who is under center (Stafford or Walford) are more than capable of pounding the Jags and getting them selves right again. The Jacksonville Jaguars are 1-15 ATS in their last 16 games against the NFC West, including 0-9 ATS as an under- dog. Rams are 5-0 ATS L/5 in this series. |
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12-05-21 | Washington Football Team v. Raiders -1 | 17-15 | Loss | -112 | 56 h 1 m | Show | |
Vegas woke up from a 3 game losing nightmare last time out with a big 36-33 win on TG Day vs the Dallas Cowboys and now have momentum going against a Washington side, off 3 straight wins, that were grueling in nature and Im sure took alot out of them. Now traveling from East to West will further their exhaustion ratio after a smash and grab Monday night game vs the Seahawks and makes them susceptible to a down effort in the desert this Sunday. Note: NFL sides coming off a straight up underdog victory on Thursday are 5-1 SU and 6-0-1 ATS L/31 seasons vs opposition coming off a Monday Night tilt. LAS VEGAS is 10-0 ATS L/10 in home games after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs . NFL team vs the money line (LAS VEGAS) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/game committed) against a team with 1.25 or less TO/game forced, after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 47-16 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Las Vegas to cover |
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12-05-21 | Giants +4 v. Dolphins | 9-20 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 20 m | Show | |
I know how amazing and maybe also a little lucky the Dolphins have looked of late , as they have garnered four straight wins, but it must be noted that NYG own a 12-3 ATS record in their last fifteen games as a road dog and have cashed 16 of 20 ATS as a dog vs the AFC East . With that said, and not focusing on historical biases, I really like the way the Gmens D is playing, and Im betting they wreak havoc on Tua Tagovailoa and company. Also on the flip-side, despite of a maligned Giants offensive line QB Daniel Jones has remained minimally consistent enough to make the Giants competitive and considering Jones is 12-6 ATS in his career as a visitor I feel we have enough line value to pull the trigger on the road side. NYG is 3-0 SU/ATS L/3 visits to Miami. GIANTS are 13-4 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. Giants are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. NFL Home teams (MIAMI) - after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season are 8-30 ATS L/38 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) - after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 5-25 ATS L/38 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on NY Giants to cover |
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12-05-21 | Vikings -7 v. Lions | 27-29 | Loss | -105 | 77 h 51 m | Show | |
After jumping out to a a 7-0 lead last week the Vikings fell asleep at the proverbial wheel and , lost by a 34-12 score to the Niners last Sunday. Im betting that was an emotional letdown spot performance, after a huge win vs a very good Green bay side the week before. Now in redemption mode after that embarrassment Im betting on a motivated performance here by a red faced group vs a Detroit team that is extremely lucky to be even covering spreads of late. MINNESOTA is 5-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons. NFL Road teams (MINNESOTA) - excellent passing team (265 or more PY/G) against a poor passing defense (230-265 PY/G) after 8+ games, after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 23-3 ATS L/10 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Minnesota |
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12-02-21 | Cowboys v. Saints +4.5 | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 12 m | Show | |
Dallas is struggling as is evident by their 1-3 SUATS mark in their last four tilts , while allowing an average of 28 points and 462 yards in the 3 losses. Note: Dallas is 0-7 ATS in games after allowing 35 or more points in its last time out. Meanwhile, New Orleans is also having difficulties having lost 4 straight games. Note: HC Sean Payton has never lost 5 straight games and cashed as an underdog SU/ATS the last two times this negative kind of run has been attached to his record. So Im betting the Saints will be ready to rumble vs a Cowboys side that suddenly does not look as cohesive as it did earlier this season. Payton is 50-20 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game as the coach of NEW ORLEANS. NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS off a home loss over the last 3 seasons.NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS after scoring 14 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons. Saints are 7-0 ATS in its last seven games as a conference home dog. NFL Road teams vs. the money line (DALLAS) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (335 to 370 YPG) after 8+ games, after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous game are 6-34 L/38 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Favorites (DALLAS) - good rushing team - averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry, after being out-rushed by 75 or more yards last game are 63-111 ATS L/38 seasons for a 64% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on New Orleans to cover |
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11-28-21 | Rams -1 v. Packers | 28-36 | Loss | -108 | 56 h 43 m | Show | |
Matthew Stafford started the season strong but is now in a bit of a funk so now the entire NFL nation and the parrot broadcasters are all down on him. He has always been streaky but when he's on Stafford can supply alot of high octane downfield offense and that what Im betting on him doing in bounce back fashion this week after a ugly 31-10 loss at SF vs the 49ers a couple weeks ago. Personally I believe the Rams were in a huge letdown spot after a hardcore battle the previous week against Tennessee in a loss but now after a bye week will be well rested and ready for redemption and revenge for last years play off loss vs the banged up Packers. So Im not ready to throw the Rams under a bus just yet, and believe they matchup well here vs the Green Bay Packers. Note: Stafford has covered in four of his last five matchups vs Rodgers, and is 9-3 ATS coming off a bye week. Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. LA RAMS are 22-11 ATS against conference opponents over the last 3 season. Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog. Favorite has covered 10 of the L/11 meetings in this series. NFL team vs the money line (LA RAMS) - off an embarrassing loss by 21 points or more as a favorite, with a winning record on the season are 22-4 L/10 seasons for a 85% con version rate for bettors. NFL team vs the money line (LA RAMS) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 31-8 L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. Play on LA Rams to cover |
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11-28-21 | Jets +2.5 v. Texans | 21-14 | Win | 100 | 52 h 47 m | Show | |
Rookie Zach Wilson returns to the lineup after missing four games with a sprained right knee when the Jets visit the Houston Texans in a matchup of 2-8 teams. The rest Im betting did the young man some good, and now Im betting Wilsons head will be cleared enough to try to get some momentum going for him and his team. I know the Jets D is atrocious and against ground attacks are allowing 4.6 yards per rush this season, but the truth is this Texans team has almost no offensive flow, so to me they are fade material in a matchup that finally favors the Jets. HOUSTON is 18-33 ATS L/51 off a upset win as an underdog. HOUSTON is 1-11 ATS L/12 vs. struggling teams - outscored by 10+ points per game on the season in the second half of the season . HOUSTON is 1-8 ATS vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return over the last 3 seasons. Texans are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite. NFL Road underdogs or pick (NY JETS) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 43-18 ATS L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Jets have covered 6 of the L/8 meetings in this series. Play on the NY Jets to cover |
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11-28-21 | Bucs -3 v. Colts | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 52 h 42 m | Show | |
Both these sides can stop the run, with TB ranking high in that category, but one of these teams is better at stopping the pass and thats the Bucs. The Colts secondary is leaky and thats not a good omen vs what will be a motivated senior citizen in Tom Brady. I know Tampa has not played up to expectations on the road, but now we are into the nitty gritty part of the season, and this is where Im expecting future HOF QB Brady and company to shine. Colts are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog. Arians is 15-6 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more yards/play as the coach of TAMPA BAY. NFL Favorites vs. the money line (TAMPA BAY) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 27-1 L/5 seasons for a 97% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.3 ppg which easily qualifies on this short fav ATS line. Play on TB to cover |
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11-25-21 | Bills v. Saints UNDER 45.5 | 31-6 | Win | 100 | 35 h 16 m | Show | |
They both are dealing with a short week as they prepare to meet Thursday night in New Orleans which sets up well for a slower paced game. Two viable defenses go head to head in prime time football this Thanksgiving. Buffalo has allowed just 17.6 ppg and the Saints have given up an average of 21.8 ppg. Thursday home pups like the Saints have gone UNDER all 5 times this season with a combined average of 36.8 ppg going on the board. Note: From a historical perspective it must be noted that the Saints have gone UNDER in in their last 9 Thursday nighters with a combined score of 39 ppg getting registered on the scoreboard. Meanwhile, Buffalo was asleep at the wheel last week and were upset by a ugly 41-17 count by Indianapolis which Im betting will have them ready for a vigilant bounce back effort especially on D. Note: BUFFALO is 6-0 UNDER off a home loss over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 30.9 ppg scored. BUFFALO is 10-2 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 42.3 ppg scored. McDermott is 12-4 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points as the coach of BUFFALO with a combined average of 39 ppg going on the board. Under is 19-7 in Bills last 26 games on fieldturf. NFL team against the total (BUFFALO) - off an upset loss as a favorite against opponent after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points are 38-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. Thanksgiving nigh tilts have stayed lower scoring in 10 of the L/14 events staying below the offered total by an of 5.8 ppg, with the under cashing 6 straight times. Play UNDER |
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11-25-21 | Bears -3 v. Lions | 16-14 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 50 m | Show | |
The Lions have a big reputation as Thanksgiving day money makers, but the truth it's usually when they are favs that they shine, but as dogs they have lost 12 straight times and covered only twice losing by an average of 9.8 ppg. I know Chicago may not inspire bettors but they are the superior side, and being very hungry for wins Im betting they dont pass up this opportunity to register a victory. Note: The Lions will start one of their woeful backups probably the horrendous looking Boyle this week and are down to just 3 healthy starting offensive lineman , so offensive continuity and scoring is going to be an issue. I know QB Fields may also not start for the Bears but to me veteran QB Dalton is a better option anyway . NFL Favorites vs. the money line (CHICAGO) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 27-1 SU L/5 seasons for a 97% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at 13.3 ppg which qualifies from a. ATS level as well. NFL Road teams (CHICAGO) - in a game involving two struggling offensive teams (14-18 PPG) after 8 or more games, after a loss by 3 or less points are 21-3 ATS L/38 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road teams (CHICAGO) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Chicago has won 4 of the L/5 meetings in this series and their L/2 visits to Motown . Play on Chicago Bears to cover |
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11-22-21 | Giants +11.5 v. Bucs | 10-30 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 21 m | Show | |
The Giants’ defense is top form and have been really been stoppers in the last three weeks giving them the ability to be competitive against any NFL team even the defending Super Bowl champion Bucs . On the flip side, the giants rarely get much push from the offensive line but against shaky TB secondary I expect for some big plays and scores. With Big Blue getting healthy they are solid bets here to cover vs a Bucs side that is definitely not playing a top level at the moment. . Giants are 19-4 ATS L/23 as road underdogs. Judge is 8-1 ATS in road games against conference opponents as the coach of NY GIANTS. NY GIANTS are 9-1 ATS in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons. TAMPA BAY is 0-6 ATS against NFC East division opponents over the last 3 seasons. TB has lost 19 of its L/26 SU after two consecutive road losses. NFL Road underdogs or pick (NY GIANTS) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 35-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road teams (NY GIANTS) - off a home win, a struggling team, winning 25% to 40% of their games, in the second half of the season are 46-19 ATS L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. NY Giants to cover |
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11-21-21 | Cardinals v. Seahawks UNDER 48 | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 70 h 47 m | Show | |
We have a top tier West Division battle between Arizona and Seattle this Sunday afternoon, both were off losses with the Seahawks getting shutout . Seattle’s enters this game playing a top tier brand of defense football, allowing 13, 7, and 17 pts allowed in their last 3 games and come in with a having eclipsed the total just once in 9 games this season and were shutout last time out with a total of 17 points being scored . The average line of Seahawks tilts has been 48.9 with the average combined score clicking in at 40.7 ppg. Under is 6-0 in Seahawks last 6 games as an underdog. Whether QB Kyle Murray plays (ANKLE) or is less than 100% Im betting he is kept mostly at bey. It must be noted that NFL WEST DIVISION games L/37 seasons when the home team is an underdog of 6 pts or less the under has hit 75% plus of the time after game 8 or greater (15-49-1 UNDER ). Under is 7-0 in Cardinals last 7 games as a road favorite.Under is 9-1 in Cardinals last 10 games on fieldturf. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SEATTLE) - after going under the total by more than 28 points in their previous game, in conference games ARE 30-9 UNDER L/38 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (ARIZONA) - with a struggling passing D - allowing a comp pct of 64% or worse, after gaining 4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 46-20 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-21-21 | Packers v. Vikings UNDER 47.5 | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 53 m | Show | |
Green Bays defense shined last time out with a 17-0 polishing of Seattle. Im expecting their D, to stand tall again this week in this key divisional battle vs Minnesota, a side of a hard fought victory last week vs the Chargers. Note: Minnesota has allowed 20 points or less in 5 of their L/7 overall. Under is 4-0 in Vikings last 4 games following a ATS win.Under is 4-0 in Vikings last 4 home games. Under is 7-0 in Packers last 7 games overall.Under is 7-0 in Packers last 7 games following a ATS win.Under is 6-0 in Packers last 6 games following a straight up win.Under is 5-0 in Packers last 5 games as a favorite.Under is 4-0 in Packers last 4 vs. NFC. GREEN BAY is 8-1 UNDER (when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 45.1 ppg scored. GREEN BAY is 7-0 UNDER vs struggling passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season with a combined average of 35 ppg scored. GREEN BAY is 6-0 UNDER vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. this season with a combined average of 34.5 ppg scored. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (GREEN BAY) - after going under the total by more than 28 points in their previous game, in conference games are 30-9 UNDER L/38 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. NFLRoad teams against the total (GREEN BAY) - after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, a top-level team (75% or better ) playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season ere 42-14 L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Minnesota. Play UNDER |
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11-21-21 | Dolphins v. Jets UNDER 45 | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 66 h 43 m | Show | |
I know the Jets D is atrocious but the Dolphins are not a team that can take huge advantage of this situation. Meanwhile, the Jets are not trusting Mike White under center, and the play calling from the offensive coordinator is amateurish at best making futility the call here today and a total combined score that stays on the low side of the total. NY JETS are 12-2 UNDER L/14 in home games versus struggling rushing teams - averaging 90 or less rushing yards/game in the second half of the season. Under is 4-0 in Dolphins last 4 games in November.Under is 4-0 in Dolphins last 4 vs. AFC.Under is 6-1 in Dolphins last 7 vs. AFC East.MIAMI is 41-14 UNDER vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return . MIAMI is 61-39 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992. NFL team against the total (NY JETS) - after 3 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored are 23-6 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. NFLHome teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NY JETS) - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 27 or more points/game, after allowing 35 points or more in 2 straight games are 31-6 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. NFLRoad teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (MIAMI) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 29-11 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate. Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in New York. Play UNDER |
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11-21-21 | Texans v. Titans UNDER 45 | 22-13 | Win | 100 | 66 h 33 m | Show | |
Texas has scored 9 points or less in 6 of their L/8 games and today if they can muster that many points Ill be surprised vs a Titans team that held KC to just 3 points a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, Tennessee after 5 straight grueling games against top tier competition could end up using this game as a de-facto bye week, and not put the pedal to the metal or even be inclined to do so as they save some juice for the play offs . This equates to a lower scoring tilt than the lines-makers might expect. HOUSTON is 11-2 UNDER in road games after scoring 9 points or less last game with a combined average of 36.1 ppg scored. DD road dogs like Texas off their bye week have gone under in 9 of their L/10 trips to the gridiron when the total is 42 or more. Texans are 1-10 L/11 under as a road dog of 3 points or more. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (HOUSTON) - average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games, after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 39-13 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. NFL team against the total (TENNESSEE) - after beating the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 36-14 L/10 seasons for a 72% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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11-21-21 | Washington Football Team v. Panthers -3 | 27-21 | Loss | -125 | 25 h 21 m | Show | |
The Washington football team after upsetting the defending Super Bowl Champs last week will now in a huge emotional letdown situation on the road. It must be noted that sides off a upset of the defending Super Bowl champion by 10 or more points have covered just 3 of the 19 times when facing a .400 or better side like the Panthers in their following tilt. With Carolina looking like a viable side to back with Cam Newton or former XFL star QB PJ Walker under center Im recommedning we pull the trigger here and lay a few points with a team that has plenty of momentum and crowd support this Sunday. NFL Favorites (CAROLINA) - an average defensive team (18 to 23 PPG) against a struggling defensive team (27 or more PPG), after scoring 30 points or more last game are 24-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. |
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11-18-21 | Patriots v. Falcons +6.5 | 25-0 | Loss | -102 | 59 h 24 m | Show | |
The Atlanta Falcons suffered their worst loss in almost 20 years this past Sunday vs Dallas 43-3 and with that said it must be noted pros do not like to be embarrassed. Remember these NFL rosters are made up of some of the top athletes in the world, and they own some of the biggest egos on earth. Im expecting a big effort from the entire Falcons group here at home in this national broadcast tilt and what Ill peg as redemption night in Georgia. I know New England smashed Cleveland last time out by a 45-7 count , but a repeat performance is unlikely here as is Atlanta having another muted offensive effort. Patriots are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.Patriots are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up win.Patriots are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win. ATLANTA is 6-0 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse over the last 3 seasons. Atlanta to cover |
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11-14-21 | Eagles +2.5 v. Broncos | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 59 h 57 m | Show | |
The Broncos have won 2 straight games including a big upset on the road against the Dallas Cowboys last week. Last weeks victory ended a 5 game streak where they lost they stats battle so Im not that impressed by the surprising win, as their over all work must be considered. I know Philadelphia may not inspire bettors but QB Jalen Hurts continues to improve, and hes a handful for most defenses, and according to my rankings he matches up well here and should have a good day as a dual threat pivot. Im betting Hurts will be the difference maker today. Denver has failed to cover 16 of their 24 games as a home favorite in tilts after winning straight-up as a dog, including 1-10-1 ATS if they are off back to back SUATS wins. DENVER is 17-38 ATS L/55 in home games off a non-conference game. NFL team vs the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - mistake-free team 1.25 or less TO/game committed) against a team with 1.25 or less TO/game forced, after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 46-14 SU L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road underdogs or pick (PHILADELPHIA) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/G committed) vs a team with 1.25 or less TO/G forced after 8+ games, after a game where they committed no turnovers are 23-4 ATS L/39 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Eagles to cover |
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11-14-21 | Bills v. Jets +13 | 45-17 | Loss | -124 | 54 h 15 m | Show | |
The Buffalo Bills lost in shocking fashion to the Jacksonville Jaguars last time out with a bizarre 9-6 score attached to it. Buffalo is now 0-3 ATS this season as double-digit road favorites. I know many expect, the now inconsistent Bills to come out here spitting bullets ,as they look for a quick redemption result, but laying almost two TDs in a divisional road game seems a bit much in my opinion. Especially with NYJ incumbent QB Mike White under center. With that said, the Jets will not easy targets and get my support here getting points as a home dog. Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.Jets are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.Jets are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. NFL Road favorites (BUFFALO) - with a good first half defense - 7 or less points per game, after allowing 14 points or less last game are 8-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Favorites of 10.5 or more points (BUFFALO) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 8-29 ATS L/38 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. Underdog is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings. Play on the NY Jets to cover |
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11-14-21 | Saints +3 v. Titans | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 54 h 52 m | Show | |
RB Adrian Peterson who has lots of miles on him is now the Titans No.1 running back as Tennessee’ has to move forward without the injured Derrick Henry for at least the rest of the regular season . That will be a difficult transition for a offense that leans hard on Henry to move the chains. Yes, I know the Titans have played smash mouth football of late against top tier competition, but that kind of action takes a toll on a team, and now this week against the Saints Im betting we see some exhaustion play a part in making the Titans vulnerable home favs. Note: NFL teams like Tennessee off 4 straight underdog wins have covered just 1 of their L/7 opportunities as favs in their followup tilt. TENNESSEE is also just 3-15 ATS off an upset win by 10 or more as a road underdog which was the case after a DD win vs the Rams last week. NEW ORLEANS is 8-0 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game over the last 3 seasons. NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. NFL Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TENNESSEE) - after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 28-62 ATS L/38 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors. Play on New Orleans to cover |
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11-07-21 | Cardinals v. 49ers +2.5 | 31-17 | Loss | -100 | 78 h 22 m | Show | |
,Arizona had their perfect 7-0 season come to an abrupt end last time out and could easily find themselves in an emotional letdown spot. The Cards are just 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in games when coming off a SU home chalk loss and have lost 8 of their L/9 overall in tilts after playing against the Green Bay Packers. With QB Jimmy Garoppolo looking healthy and off a strong performance last time ( 17-of-28 for 322 yards) I like the 49ers chances in this spot play. With the Niners 4-0 ATS at home in a key division game vs a team off a Thursday night game Im liking our chances.ARIZONA is 1-8 ATS in the second half of the season over the last 2 season.Underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings. Play on SF 49ers to cover |
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11-07-21 | Falcons +6.5 v. Saints | 27-25 | Win | 100 | 72 h 43 m | Show | |
The Saints are off a huge underdog win vs TB last week and will now be in a emotional letdown situation. It must be noted that teams that upset Super Bowl champion as a dog are just 19-36 SU/ATS bd division opposition the following game, when not favored by 7 or more points. I know Atlanta may not inspire bettors but is also must be noted that NEW ORLEANS is 7-23 ATS L/20 in home games vs. struggling teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season. NEW ORLEANS is 10-22 ATS in home games after having won 4 out of their last 5 games NFL Home teams (NEW ORLEANS) - off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 11-34 ATS L/38 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Atlanta to cover |
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11-07-21 | Bills v. Jaguars +15 | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 67 h 23 m | Show | |
The Jags do not inspire many bettors, but when value arises I have to bite my pride, and follow the right path. Buffalo is obviously the superior side, but this is just to many points in my humble opinion, especially with Urban Meyer and company looking at this tilt like an opportunity for redemption after a disastrous start to this campaign. NFL Road favorites (BUFFALO) - with a good first half defense - 7 or less points per game, after allowing 14 points or less last game are 8-29 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road favorites (BUFFALO) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more points are 19-47 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. Jacksonville to cover |
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11-07-21 | Texans +6.5 v. Dolphins | 9-17 | Loss | -123 | 67 h 17 m | Show | |
These two teams have lost 7 games in row, and both will desperate for a win here and Im betting it will be a battle to the very end with getting points being eventually golden. HOUSTON is 8-1 straight up against MIAMI and have won 3 of the L/4 visits here . NFL Road underdogs or pick (HOUSTON) - after 6 or more consecutive losses, in November games are 44-14 ATS L/38 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (HOUSTON) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 30-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. NFL Home favorites (MIAMI) - a poor offensive team (14-18 PPG) against a horrible defensive team ( 27 PPG or more ), after a loss by 10 or more points are 9-38 ATS L/38 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate. Play on Texas to cover |
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11-07-21 | Broncos +10 v. Cowboys | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 56 h 26 m | Show | |
Denver is off a grinding home win last time out vs Washington and now come into this game with momentum vs americas team the Dallas Cowboys who are on a 6 game win streak . The Broncos according to my power rankings are being underestimated this week, no matter who starts at QB for the Cowboys ( Prescott or Rush). I know how well the Cowboys have played overall, but from a historical standpoint laying DDs at home vs a non divisional opponent has not been profitable for their backers as they have failed to cover 10 of their L/13 opportunities. Also NFL road dogs like Denver coming off a win of 6 or more points are 15-3 ATS so far this season. Denver has also won and covered 3 of their L/4 visits to Dallas to play the Boyz. It must also be noted that Denver QB Teddy Bridgewater away games as an NFL starter, is a perfect 10-0 ATS versus above .500 opposition and is key here for a Broncos cover. NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (DENVER) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 30-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. NFL Favorites (DALLAS) - with an incredible offense - averaging 385 or more total yards/game, after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 7-32 ATS L/5 seasons for. ago against 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Denver to cover |
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11-04-21 | Jets +10.5 v. Colts | 30-45 | Loss | -107 | 24 h 41 m | Show | |
Indianapolis is off a frustrating OT loss vs Tennessee last Sunday and could easily find themselves in a letdown spot this Monday night vs a NY Jets team with a new QB at the helm Mike White who led them to a OT win vs a tough Cincinnati crew by a 34-31 count. I know Carson Wentz is a quality QB but he's not consistent enough and has a tendency to fold under pressure more often than not . On the flip-side the Jets players have said they were very happy when Mike White Lightning came on the field as their new QB and the entire team Im betting will play behind him which is important for team chemistry. Momentum and confidence sit on the Jets side of the field. Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. NFL Road underdogs or pick (NY JETS) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games against opponent after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games are 24-6 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. NFL Home favorites of 10.5 or more points (INDIANAPOLIS) - after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, in weeks 5 through 9 are 17-42 ATS L/38 seasons for a 71% go against conversion rate. Play on the NY Jets to cover |
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10-31-21 | Cowboys v. Vikings OVER 52 | 20-16 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 57 m | Show | |
Dallas is really lighting it up and look like a team possessed scoring 35, 44, 36, and 41 in their last 4 trips to the gridiron .Non-Division teams like the Cowboys who produced 35 or more points off offense in each of their last 4 contests are a perfect 6-0 L/6 opportunities OVER when the Total is 46 or higher. Dallas has gone over 9 straight times, vs the NFC north where the Vikings reside, and Im betting on rested legs and off a bye week they will light the board up against vs a inconsistent Vikings D.Over is 14-3-1 in Cowboys last 18 games following a bye week.DALLAS is 11-3 OVER in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 2 seasons for a combined average of 61.1 ppg. Meanwhile, the Vikings also off a bye week will have to fire back with some offensive fireworks of their own, which Im betting will result in a combined score to go over the offered number. Over is 5-0 in Vikings last 5 games following a bye week.Over is 10-4 in Vikings last 14 vs. NFC.MINNESOTA is 6-0 OVER as a home favorite of 7 points or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 61.3 ppg scored. Play on the OVER |
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10-31-21 | Bucs v. Saints +4.5 | 27-36 | Win | 100 | 53 h 40 m | Show | |
Tom Brady and company took out the Saints last season in the NFC playoffs last season, and now Im betting on a huge revenge scenario to manifest here and for the Saints to come out spitting fire. Note: Saints are 11-2-1 ATS as home underdogs L/15 seasons , and failed to cover just once under new head coach Sean Payton. New Orleans has owned this series in the regular season going 5-0 SUATS L/5 meetings and Im betting have the edge again getting points as hosts. Payton is 24-8 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of NEW ORLEANS. NFL Favorites (TAMPA BAY) - with an incredible offense - averaging 385 or more total yards/game, after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 7-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the New Orleans Saints to cover |
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10-31-21 | Bengals v. Jets +11 | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 50 h 1 m | Show | |
The Bengals are off a huge underdog win last time out vs the Baltimore Ravens and will find themselves in an emotional letdown spot here vs a ugly home dog in the NY Jets making them vulnerable . Previous to the Bengals win last week, they had not beat an above .500 team so Im not ready to crown them possible super Bowl contenders just yet. With that said, I know it will be tough for many of you to take the points here with the Jets, but with Zach Wilson now on the sidelines for the Jets and Mike White under center Im betting we will see a better version of the Jets this week. White was brilliant in his time with Western Kentucky and must not be underestimated . Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win. NY JETS are 16-6 ATS L/22 after being outgained by 100 or more total yds 2 consecutive games. NY JETS is 7-1 straight up against CINCINNATI since 1992. in NY. Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Jets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog. NFL Favorites (CINCINNATI) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 14-48 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the NY Jets to cover |
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10-31-21 | Dolphins +14 v. Bills | 11-26 | Loss | -106 | 50 h 41 m | Show | |
I am not disputing which side is the better group, but in a division game a two TD difference is a little over the top. I know how well and how badly each team has played, but this line is bloated according to my power rankings and Im willing to take the points with a clothes pin attached firmly to my nose. Note: NFL home favorites in division games of 14 or more points are just 48-65-6 ATS L/41 seasons , including a 0-7 L/7 ATS run. BUFFALO is 18-33 ATS L/51 after having won 4 out of their last 5 games. NFL Favorites (BUFFALO) - solid team - out-gaining their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 14-48 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road underdogs or pick (MIAMI) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games against opponent after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games are 23-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Dolphins to cover |
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10-31-21 | Titans v. Colts -2.5 | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 6 m | Show | |
After back to back underdogs wins vs Buffalo and Kansas City Im betting the Titans will have problems mustering the energy needed to take out the Colts as visitors. The Colts current group is also suited well to defending against the run , and with QB Carson Wentz in top form throwing multiple TDs pass in 4 straight games with no interceptions the Colts are a dangerous looking team. Note: Tennessee 0-4 ATS in games coming off consecutive SU underdog wins.I INDIANAPOLIS is 14-4 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game over the last 3 seasons
Play on the Colts to cover |
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10-31-21 | Rams v. Texans +16 | 38-22 | Push | 0 | 27 h 45 m | Show | |
Rams took out the lowly Lions last week by a 28-19 count, but they had to work extremely hard to do it after falling 10-0 in the first quarter. To me its obvious the Rams are taking defacto bye weeks to rest players against lower tier sides at least from an emotional standpoint ( their effort and grit look less than positive at time despite of the talent levels. In the recent past it seems the odds makers have over estimated the Rams ability to beat up on lower level sides, as is evident by their 1-5 ATS mark vs. a team with a losing record. After last weeks emotional come from behind victory Im fading them as huge road favs vs a team that will be motivated for redemption of some sort. HOUSTON is 13-3 ATS L/16 after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games. LA RAMS are 2-10 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. NFL Favorites (LA RAMS) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 14-48 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Texans to cover |
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10-28-21 | Packers +6.5 v. Cardinals | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 26 h 12 m | Show | |
Green Bay has gone into over drive after offseason drama with its star quarterback Rodgers meltdown and near retirement , a Week 1 blowout defeat and than a boat load full of injuries. They continue to jump all obstacles and now Rodgers after his off season sulking, and slow start is a man on a mission and will be primed to take down the undefeated Arizona Cards this Thursday night. Note: The Packers are 5-0 ATS L/5 versus undefeated NFC West opponents . Arizona QB Murray is 1-5 ATS as a non-division home favorite of fewer than 7 points in his career.
Packers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win. Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in October. Cardinals are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 games as a home favorite.Cardinals are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. ARIZONA is 1-11 ATS L/12 in home games after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game.ARIZONA is 0-6 ATS in home games after out-gaining opp by 100 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. ARIZONA is 4-14 ATS L/18 off a home blowout win by 21 points or more. GREEN BAY is 8-1 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better over the last 2 seasons. NFL Home teams (ARIZONA) - out-gaining their opponents by 1.75 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 7-27 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate. NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (ARIZONA) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 9-33 ATS L/10 seasons for a79% go against conversion rate.
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10-24-21 | Colts +4 v. 49ers | 30-18 | Win | 100 | 79 h 30 m | Show | |
The Colts after a slow 0-3 start have won 2 of their L/3 games, with the loss coming to Baltimore by a 31-25 count. This team and its current roster according to my power rankings is more than capable of hanging with a SF 49ers side that has a banged up QB (Jimmy Garoppolo ) at the helm of the offense that is playing at less than 100% when he is on the field. Advantage Colts to cover. INDIANAPOLIS is 9-1 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 2 seasons. NDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 ATS in road games after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. SAN FRANCISCO is 1-8 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. NFL team vs the money line (INDIANAPOLIS) - off a blowout win by 28 points or more over a division rival, after the first month of the season are 31-6 L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. NFL team vs the money line (INDIANAPOLIS) - an average defensive team (18 to 23 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG), after scoring 25 points or more in 3 straight games are 28-4 L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate. ( This trend gives a decent probability of possible upset thus giving top tier value with taking points. INDIANAPOLIS is 3-0/ATS 2-1 SU against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO in SAN FRANCISCO since 1992. Indianapolis to cover |
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10-24-21 | Texans v. Cardinals UNDER 47.5 | 5-31 | Win | 100 | 44 h 20 m | Show | |
The Texans have scored a total of 35 points in 4 games (8.75 ppg). Arizona has allowed an average of 18 ppg, and Im betting both these means to averages will continue. I know the Texans D, is atrocious and the Cards are putting up points in bunches, but Im betting Texas does everything possible to turn this into a grinding slow motion affair. On the flip-side Arizona is off a road underdog win last time out, and be in a letdown state here vs a side that Im sure they are not taking very seriously no matter what they say. Also after playing 3 of their L/4 games and at break neck speed this will be a spot where the Cardinals energy levels will be lower than usual which will relate to a slower event that may might expect. These are my expectations, and right or wrong Im betting this game with confidence to the under. HOUSTON is 10-2 UNDER in road games after scoring 9 points or less last game with a combined average of 36.1 ppg scored. Note: undefeated non-division home teams like the Arizona Cardinal from GAME 5 and beyond have gone a 0-11-1UNDER L/5 seasons when the Totals offering is 45 or more. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (ARIZONA) - off a blowout upset win by 21 or more points as an underdog, after the first month of the season are 46-18 UNDER L/38 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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10-24-21 | Lions v. Rams UNDER 50.5 | 19-28 | Win | 100 | 74 h 51 m | Show | |
Detroit is ranked 28th in scoring in the NFL averaging 18.3 ppg and here against a solid Rams D, that output average will be further muted and have scored 17 or less points in 5 straight. That lack of productivity Im betting will help keep this combined score under the offered number. It must be noted that the LA Rams play at the rate in the NFL averaging just 59 plays per game. I expect a slower more deliberate game from the Rams after playing 2 consecutive road games. Its takes time to use to home cooking so I dont expect them to be as explosive as usual.
NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (LA RAMS) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 31-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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10-24-21 | Washington Football Team +8.5 v. Packers | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 26 m | Show | |
That was a big win for Rodgers and company last week against their long time rivals the Bears and now Im expecting an emotional letdown situation to unfold for Green Bay giving us an advantage with taking points with the Washington football team. I know Washington has not looked good defensively, but they are still capable of slowing down the Packer train. Note: From a historical standpoint GREEN BAY is just 9-22 ATS in home games versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 6 yards/play or more . |
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10-24-21 | Jets +7 v. Patriots | 13-54 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 48 m | Show | |
After last weeks back and forth tilt vs the Dallas Cowboys that saw New England lose to the Cowboys in OT, Im betting on a huge letdown performance from the Pats here this week vs the lowly Jets, Also according to my power rankings the Jets are not as bad as their record suggests and are more than capable of hanging tough here and pulling off the upset. NFL Road teams (NY JETS) - with a struggling offense - averaging 285 or less total yards/game, after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 39-14 ATS L/38 seasons for a 74% conversion rate. |
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10-17-21 | Cowboys v. Patriots +3.5 | 35-29 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 21 m | Show | |
Bill Belichick is 21-7 SU in his career vs NFC East sides , cashing 4 straight times a s dog including 6 straight victories versus the Dallas Cowboys. I know the Boyz are playing great ball but Belichick is a chess master that must be respected at home . New England has cashed in 5 of their L/6 as home dogs, while the Cowboys are 0-6-1 ATS L/7 after playing the Giants which was the case last week. NEW ENGLAND is 13-4 ATS L/17 in home games vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season . NFL non-division road favorite (DALLAS) of more 3 + points coming off three consecutive home games including a SUATS win last time out have failed to cover 14 of the L/15 times for a 93% go against conversion rate. NFL Road favorites (DALLAS) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more point are 18-45 L/10 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate. Play on New England Pats to cover |
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10-17-21 | Raiders +4 v. Broncos | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 54 h 15 m | Show | |
HC Gruden is now just a memory in the minds of this Las Vegas football group. It's a fresh start for them as they can now concentrate on playing football instead of being involved in a controversial circus. Im still a believer in this Raiders group, and here as 4 point dogs vs a Broncos side that is 0-6 ATS L/6 as division favorites we have an edge taking points. Especially considering that this Denver team has gone 24 straight games without scoring in their first possession of the game , which in itself continually puts them behind the proverbial 8 ball. Note: Broncos QB Teddy Bridgewater has failed to cover 7 of 11 home in division games in his NFL career. Raiders are 6-1 ATS L/7 in this series and since moving to Las Vegas have won both meetings. Play on LV Raiders to cover |
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10-17-21 | Rams v. Giants UNDER 49 | 38-11 | Push | 0 | 51 h 27 m | Show | |
Giants offense is banged up with Barkely Jones expected out and a few more keys guys expected to miss or be less than 100% if they do play. The giants struggle at the best times to score so now this week against a tough D, Im betting their output problems continue . This is a contributional factor I have used to recommend we take the under here today. The Gmen have seen their L/6 home games stay under the total with a combined average of 36 ppg scored. LA RAMS are 6-0 UNDER vs. struggling teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 38.5 ppg scored. LA RAMS are 6-0 UNDER vs. inconsistent defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 36.6 ppg scored. LA RAMS are 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) after having won 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.2 ppg going on the board. Under is 5-1 in Rams last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 16-5 in Rams last 21 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Under is 21-7 in Rams last 28 games as a favorite.Under is 11-4 in Rams last 15 games as a road favorite. NFL team against the total (LA RAMS) - off a road win against a division rival, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 31-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Home teams against the total (NY GIANTS) - off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a division rival, with a losing record are 31-9 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate. Play on the UNDER |
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10-17-21 | Dolphins v. Jaguars +3.5 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 75 h 30 m | Show | |
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium - London Urban Meyer and Trevor Lawrence are proving that their college careers may have been over hyped at least at this point in their NFL tenures . However, the duo and their team are desperate for a win, and Im betting on a neutral field vs a Dolphins side that has lost 4 straight we have a situation where a cover is a high potential situation on this line. It must be noted that Jacksonville will play their 8th game here in the UK, and have been adopted by many British NFL fans . So this is like a defacto home game for the transplanted Jaguars. Note: QB] 10/12/2021 - Tua Tagovailoa is questionable Sunday vs Jacksonville ( Ribs ) and if he plays will be less than 100%. (Without the young QB in the lineup the Fins have been beaten up by an average of 19 ppg. ) NFL team vs the money line (MIAMI) - with a poor offense - averaging 4.8 or less yards/play, after allowing 500 or more total yards in their previous game are just 4-30 L/37 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. (According to this over powering trend we have upset potential) Play on the Jacksonville Jags to cover |
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10-14-21 | Bucs v. Eagles +7 | 28-22 | Win | 100 | 26 h 47 m | Show | |
Philadelphia D has ,held three of its five sides they have faced this season season-low yardage . Thats important against explosive 44 year old future HOF QB Tom Brady and company. In a historical context is must be noted that the Eagles have gone 7-0 SU L/7 in Thursday nighters while Tampa Bay is just 1-7 ATS in these prime time affairs. Basically at this number we have real value and recommend we take the points here with the home dog. Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. Buccaneers are 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games in October. Buccaneers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite. Play on Philadelphia Eagles to cover |
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10-10-21 | Bills +3 v. Chiefs | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 57 h 53 m | Show | |
Buffalo to me is playing as a front runner for a Super Bowl ticket, at least in their current form and have a very good chance a SU victory as dogs here vs KC. BUFFALO is 7-0 ATS after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. KANSAS CITY is 1-11 ATS (L/12 after gaining 175 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games. Bills QB Josh Allen is 12-1 SU in his NFL career against opposition coming off a SUATS win like the Chiefs. NFL Underdogs or pick (BUFFALO) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 41-11 L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. NFL Road underdogs or pick (BUFFALO) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 31-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (KANSAS CITY) - with a terrible defense - allowing 360 or more total yards/game, after gaining 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 6-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Buffalo Bills to cover |
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10-10-21 | Bills v. Chiefs OVER 56.5 | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 57 h 36 m | Show | |
This game is a one way street to an over in my betting opinion. Chiefs rank 30th in overall defense allowing. a whopping 438 ypg)and rank 30th in scoring defense at 31.3 ppg. Meanwhile, the Bills average 33.5 ppg and more than 400 ypd on offense. I know the Bills D is strong, but KC can score and explode offensively against any side, and put 40 points on the board last week. This is a pretty high total but Ill take a square stance here and take the over in what should be a prime time shootout. KANSAS CITY is 9-1 OVER in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 58.1 ppg scored. BUFFALO is 6-0 OVER ( in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 2 seasons with a. combined average of 57.3 ppg scored. NFL Road teams against the total (BUFFALO) - dominant team - outgaining their opponents by 1.25 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game are 73-36 OVER L/38 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the OVER |
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10-10-21 | Browns v. Chargers UNDER 47.5 | 42-47 | Loss | -112 | 52 h 12 m | Show | |
These are two very solid defensive sides going head to head today. Cleveland has allowed 16.8 ppg this season, and LAC 18.5 ppg. More of the same looks to be on tap this Sunday. LA CHARGERS are 29-11 UNDER L/40 in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better ) with a combined average of 40.3 ppg scored. LA CHARGERS are 9-1 UNDER L/10 versus excellent rushing defenses - allowing 70 or less rushing yards/game with a combined average of 30.7 ppg scored. LA CHARGERS are 9-1 UNDER as a home favorite of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 40.4 ppg going on the board. Cleveland in wins in which they allowed only 6 and 7 points which was the case against the Bears in Vikings have seen All non-division road teams off back-to-back wins in which they allowed 7 or less points EACH go under 7 straight times dating back 10 seasons. NFL Road teams against the total (CLEVELAND) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight game are 56-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. NFL teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (LA CHARGERS) - good passing team - averaging 230 or more passing yards/game, after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 39-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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10-10-21 | Titans -4.5 v. Jaguars | 37-19 | Win | 100 | 50 h 8 m | Show | |
I was never a big Trevor Lawrence fan no matter how well he did at the College level. I still maybe wrong but his style not mix well in the NFL and that has been obvious so far as he continues to be intercepted on a regular basis. Meanwhile last week, the Titans picked up 30 first downs and still found a way to lose vs the Jets in OT. However, Im still in on the Titans this season, and feel strongly they are the better side here. The Titans have victories in seven of their last eight meetings vs the Jaguars, with four of those wins by 21 points or more. Rinse and repeat. Also have not problem fading HC Urban Meyer. JACKSONVILLE is 6-17 ATS L/23 in home games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or more yards/game.JACKSONVILLE is 0-7 ATS in home games after allowing 6 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. TENNESSEE is 3-0 SU L/3 overall vs Jacksonville. Play on Tennessee to cover |
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10-10-21 | Broncos +1 v. Steelers | 19-27 | Loss | -113 | 50 h 42 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh looks like their in a down cycle this season and continue to deal with a boatload full of injuries. With that said, knowing Broncos QB Teddy Bridgewater is 23-3 ATS on the road in his career its not a hard decision to back Denver here today. Note: Ben Rothlisberger is 0-5 ATS L/5 starts as a favorite. DENVER is 8-1 ATS after scoring 14 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons. Tomlin is 9-23 ATS off 3 or more consecutive unders as the coach of PITTSBURGH. NFL Road underdogs or pick (DENVER) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 31-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate. Play on Denver Broncos to cover |
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10-07-21 | Rams v. Seahawks +2.5 | 26-17 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
According to my projections this game should be closer to a pickem which gives us an edge taking points here this evening. Both sides defences have allowed season highs in 3 straight games. Some may say the Rams D is superiors, but Wilson and can slice and dice the best of stopping units and here at home, Im betting he will along with a run game that should have success. Seattle QB Russel Wilson is 4-0 ATS at home off a win and 8-2 ATS at home as an underdog including 9-1 SU and 7-1-2 ATS in games on Thursdays. Rams are just 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS in division battles on Thursdays, including 0-4 ATS when favored. LA RAMS are 3-16 ATS L/19 after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA RAMS) - with a terrible defense - allowing 360 or more total yards/game, after gaining 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 5-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 84% conversion rate. . Play on Seattle to cover |
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10-03-21 | Washington Football Team -1 v. Falcons | 34-30 | Win | 100 | 75 h 3 m | Show | |
Washington did not look good last week, in a loss vs Buffalo. Its still early in the season, and some of numbers could easily be skewed or misrepresented . The talent especially on defense remains intact for the football team of DC , and Im betting we see them establish their hard hitting ways this week against the Falcons. Meanwhile, Atlanta despite of winning last week lost the stats battle vs the NYG, and their key player QB Matt Ryan looks to be getting more inconsistent with age, and is now owns an overall QB Rating this season of (87.1) which puts him at No. 24 overall in the NFL. With that said, Im betting on the Washington D, to disrupt Ryan and for the Football team to deliver the cash to their backers. ATLANTA is 15-32 ATS in home games after allowing 14 points or less last game since 1992. Rivera is 26-9 ATS off a road loss in all games he has coached since 1992. NFL team (WASHINGTON) - good offensive team (5.4 to 5.8 YPP) against a team with a terrible defense (5.8 or more YPP), after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game are 31-6 L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Washington to win |
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10-03-21 | Lions v. Bears -2.5 | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 75 h 46 m | Show | |
The Chicago Bears offense and team have been kind of a laughing stock of the early part of this NFL season. Everybody and his dog now wants to take a proverbial piss on Nagy and what many look like a mismanagement of the team, especially on offense. This week I expect instead of Fields under center we s instead get Dalton or Foles, and a team that now has a chip on the shoulders. Remember , pro do not like to be embarrassed, and that Im betting ignites this Bears team , for at least this week. Detroit has allowed an average of 31.7 ppg this season, and must also be looked upon with extreme suspicion. DETROIT is 5-16 ATS off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less since 1992.CHICAGO is 18-6 ATS in home games after gaining 200 or less total yards in their previous game since 1992. Play on the Chicago Bears to cover |
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10-03-21 | Titans v. Jets +7.5 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 75 h 38 m | Show | |
Titans coach Mike Vrabel calls Jets' defensive line 'one of the best' and will be that defensive line that will be the difference maker in a cover here today. First year HCs like NYJ Robert Saleh that are 0-3 SU/ATS to start their seasons are 47-16-2 ATS in non-division games. NY JETS are 16-6 ATS in home games after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game. TENNESSEE is 16-32 ATS against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season . NYJ are 4-0-1 ATS AFC South opponents at home. Titans are 3-10 ATS L/10 vs AFC East. NFL Favorites (TENNESSEE) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 3-22 ATS L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate. NFL Underdogs or pick (NY JETS) - terrible passing team ( 5.3 PY/Att.) against a horrible passing defense ( 7.3 or more PY/Att.), after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 22-4 ATS L/37 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. Play on NY Jets to cover |
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10-03-21 | Chiefs v. Eagles UNDER 54.5 | 42-30 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 11 m | Show | |
KC has played some back and forth affairs this season, scoring and allowing more than 24 points in all 3 games. In the past this has resulted in NFL teams going 0-7-1 UNDER in the last 4 season in the following tilt when the following perimeters have been met- NFL road favorites of 3 or more pts after scoring and allowing 24 pts or more in EACH of their last three tilts. With the Eagles on short rest off a Monday night game Im expecting a more subdued conservative effort vs a more rested team. Also I doubt highly the Eagles will be willing to take part in a shootout here and this Im betting results in a lower scoring game than the pundits might expect. PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER in home games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 34.5 ppg . PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 29.5 ppg going on the board. PHILADELPHIA is 10-1 UNDER in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 35.1 ppg scored. . PHILADELPHIA has gone an UNDER- 13-31 UNDER for a 70% conversion rate in all home games over the last 5 seasons including having gone under in 9 of 10 games as home pups of 7 or less points . Play UNDER |
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09-26-21 | Dolphins +4 v. Raiders | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 55 h 54 m | Show | |
The Dolphins (1-1) will be 4-point underdogs on Sunday against the Raiders, a line that is at least partially inflated by the quarterback situation. Miami will play without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa . However, Brisset his back is a viable QB and deserves respect as he is above .500 ATS QB in his career with a 17-16-1 record. Meanwhile, Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (toe/ankle injury) is less than 100% and may not play. Raiders are 0-8 ATS L/8 after playing Pittsburgh. Flores, meanwhile, is 1-0 against the Raiders. Gruden is 2-5 in his career against the Dolphins.Miami 5-1-1 ATS L/7 in this series. MIAMI is 15-4 straight up against LAS VEGAS since 1992. Play on the Miami Dolphins to cover |
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09-26-21 | Saints v. Patriots -144 | 28-13 | Loss | -144 | 94 h 29 m | Show | |
NFL Favorites vs. the money line (NEW ENGLAND) - in non-conference games, off a road win against a division rival are 29-1 L/5 seasons for a 97% conversion rate for bettors. |
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09-26-21 | Falcons +3 v. Giants | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 52 h 32 m | Show | |
What has me looking at Atlanta this week vs NYG was veteran QB Ryans effort last Sunday vs Tampa Bay that saw him throw for 300 yards in a 48-25 loss at Tampa Bay.Ryan, is showing consistency for his team as it attempts to work its way down the field.Quote: "I think that's a recipe for success moving forward," Ryan said. "The percentages are much higher of converting drives (and) converting third downs when we are at third and five or less, so I think that's been pretty good so far this year." END Quote. Im not a big believer at this time in the Giants. I know both these teams are 0-2, but one looks more viable than the other. Note:NYG Saquon Barkley's rehab and play on the field is still sub par overall. Yes, there have been flashes of brilliance, but he still has a long way to go. ATLANTA is 9-1 ATS in road games off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more since 1992. Visitor is 8-2 ATS in this series and the Giants are 2-6-1 ATS L/8 as home favorites. NFL Road underdogs or pick (ATLANTA) - excellent passing team from last season - averaged 275 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 24-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. Play on Atlanta to cover |
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09-26-21 | Bengals +3 v. Steelers | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 51 h 15 m | Show | |
Steelers are banged up and have a key injury to T.J. Watts (groin injury) and to me have not looked cohesive this season. Something just not right , while the Bengals have shown some grit so far this season. The Bengals snapped a 10-game losing skid to the Steelers in the second meeting last season, a 27-17 win in Cincy and I wont be surprised of QB Joe Burrows and company find a way to get the straight up win here, and more importantly at least get us the cover. Bengals are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games in Week 3. Bengals are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Bengals are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss. Bengals are 21-10-2 ATS in their last 33 games in September. Steelers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite. Play on Cincinnati Bengals to cover |
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09-23-21 | Panthers v. Texans +8 | 24-9 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 18 m | Show | |
Everyone and his dog loves the Carolina Panthers , and the lines-makers are following suit and almost completely discounting the Texans ability to hang tough here and get the cover. I know their are some negative images put into the minds of the public, because franchise quarterback Deshaun Watson has been made inactive because of on going legal issues . But overall Im betting his absence is actually a good thing and makes this Houston team more cohesive chemistry wise. Ill recommend we take the points here even with Mills in at QB. * By the way Mills is tough as nails, and he will have a pro bowl left tackle in the lineup to keep him afloat here tonight in prime time. Carolina 0-6 ATS L/6 Thursday nighters. Texans 8-2 ATS on Thursdays. NFL home underdog of 7 points or more with a .500 record or better , going against an undefeated side are 31-9 ATS L/40 seasons. . NFL Underdogs or pick (HOUSTON) - excellent passing team from last season - averaged 275 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 32-7 L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Houston to cover |
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09-20-21 | Lions v. Packers UNDER 48.5 | 17-35 | Loss | -109 | 85 h 37 m | Show | |
After the disaster of week 1 , for Green Bay which resulted in a lopsided 38-3 loss to New Orleans I expect a disciplined effort from the Packers in what will be a conservative mind set vs their long time division rivals the Detroit Lions. Meanwhile, the gridiron crew from Motown will also be ready to be more defensive minded after a 41-33 shootout in week 1 that resulted in a loss. Note: DETROIT is 37-20 UNDER L/57 in road games after allowing 30 points or more last game. NFL Home teams against the total (GREEN BAY) - versus division opponents, off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite are 31-5 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Home teams against the total (GREEN BAY) - versus division opponents, off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite are 22-2 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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09-19-21 | Chiefs v. Ravens +4 | 35-36 | Win | 100 | 60 h 21 m | Show | |
Everyone and his dog is jumping off the Baltimore Ravens bandwagon. Last week they lost in OT to the Raiders, and now the football world believes in their demise after a sub par 2020 campaign. I however, am not one of those skeptics, and still believe this is a talented team that deserves respect as underdogs at home vs a very public side in KC. Hey I know Patrick Mahomes and company are a top tier group, but they have had problems covering of late in games that are deemed to be considered close by linesmakers like this game . Note: KC is 10-0 SU in regular season tilts but just 0-9-1 ATS in one-score games since the start of last season. It must also be noted that Ravens QB Jackson is 31-11 in his NFL career, while winning 15 of 21 home games His only game as a home dog during that victorious stretch was the season before last . How did he respond to that , well Ill tell you. His team won as 3 point dogs to Football god Tom Brady of New England by a lopsided 37-20 count. Im a believer and will back the Raves to cover. Harbaugh is 10-2 ATS in home games in the first two weeks of the season as the coach of BALTIMORE. Play on the Baltimore Ravens to cover |
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09-19-21 | Vikings +3.5 v. Cardinals | 33-34 | Win | 100 | 57 h 50 m | Show | |
Sometimes the pundits make to big a deal of week 1 results, and this is what Im betting into here this week. Minnesota ,looked a little uneasy and made mistakes in their first game against under rated Cincinnati. Penalties and false starts etc,. However, despite of what the so called experts say, they will have a better offensive line this season if they stay healthy, and the D, Im betting can and will deal with the mobile Cards QB Murray. As big chunks of public money come in on the Cards Ill swing the other way with the maligned Vikings. Zimmer is 6-0 ATS in road games after a loss by 3 or less points as the coach of MINNESOTA. Vikings are 38-17 ATS in their last 55 games following a straight up loss. ARIZONA is 3-15 ATS L/18 in home games after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game . Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Road underdogs or pick (MINNESOTA) - poor passing defense from last season - allowed 230 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 29-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. MINNESOTA is 12-4 straight up against ARIZONA since 1992.Underdog is 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.Vikings are 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Play on the Vikings to cover |
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09-19-21 | Bengals +2.5 v. Bears | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 1 m | Show | |
Cincinnati has a deep scouting report on Dalton the ex Bengals and current Bears QB starter, and will be well prepared to slow his production options. Plus Chicagos offensive line looks wobbly at best. I also suggest that the Bengals D, is very under rated , and that QB Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase could easily be big stories in the NFL this season. With that said, Im betting on Burrows to take advantage of the Bears weak secondary, for big gains, and for the Bengal D to stand tall against a QB thats seen his best days pass him by. CHICAGO is 5-15 ATS L/20 after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs. CHICAGO is 9-23 ATS after allowing 7 or more yards/play in their previous game . NFL Underdogs or pick (CINCINNATI) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 55-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate. CINCINNATI is 2-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO since 1992 at Chicago. Play on Cincinnati to cover |
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09-16-21 | Giants +3.5 v. Washington Football Team | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, is out with an injury and now Taylor Heinicke will be under center for the Washington Football team . He’s made two NFL starts , both at home that ended in losses and he could easily end up on the wrong side of the scoreboard again. Judge is 6-0 ATS in road games against conference opponents as the coach of NY GIANTS. NY GIANTS is 4-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons and Giants starting QB was the starter in all those tilts and will be again tonight. NFL Home favorites (WASHINGTON) - team that had a losing record last season, in conference games are 94-160 ATS L/38 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors. |
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09-13-21 | Ravens v. Raiders +4 | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 36 h 56 m | Show | |
Black- and-Silver bring a 5-1 ATS record on Monday night games into this tilts including 3-0 SUATS the last three at home . Im looking for these positive numbers to continue here at Allegiant Stadium vs a banged up Baltimore side missing some key offensive cogs and that was not as potent last season on both sides of the ball. The Ravens are 5-10 SUATS L/8 seasons vs the AFC West, including 0-4 ATS when favored by 5 or less points. Raiders QB Carr is 4-2 as a starter on Monday nights, including wins in his past three Monday starts and takes my money here tonight. Home team is 7-2 ATS L/9 meetings in this series. Play on the Vegas Raiders to cover |
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09-12-21 | Cardinals v. Titans -3 | 38-13 | Loss | -108 | 843 h 2 m | Show | |
Cardinals are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall. NFL Favorites vs. the money line (TENNESSEE) - first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight ATS losses against opponent first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses are 28-1 L/28 seasons for a 97% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +14.9 ppg which qualifies on this spread line. |
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09-12-21 | Jets +4 v. Panthers | 14-19 | Loss | -104 | 69 h 32 m | Show | |
The new quarterback for the Carolina Panthers Darnold has proven inconsistent during his career. Im betting his inability for stability to continue vs his former team. Considering how well the Jets internal scouting report is on him , this should be a bad bounce back start for the play caller.Matt Rhule is in his second season with Carolina after a 5-11 record in 2020 and I just don't like what they offer overall, even against a revamped Jets side.Panthers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. Take the points with the NYJ to cover |
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09-12-21 | Eagles +3.5 v. Falcons | 32-6 | Win | 100 | 68 h 27 m | Show | |
Philadelphias Jalen Hurts is better than he was at Alabama. Yes I believe he has matured and Im betting after showing signs of brilliance , we will see him shine today behind an under rated group of WRs and backs. Meanwhile, Atlanta despite of having a veteran at Atlanta is 1-10 ATS L/11 as non division fav of 5 points or less. NFL Home favorites (ATLANTA) - team that had a losing record last season, in conference games. are 94-158 ATS L/38 seasons for a 62% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on Philadelphia to cover |
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09-12-21 | Vikings v. Bengals +3 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 68 h 13 m | Show | |
The QB savior of the Bengals Joe Burrows will be Im betting be the difference maker here today. Dating back to last season, Vikings are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall and are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite and are also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf. Host 6-0 L/6 in this series and the Bengals are 8-2 ATS L/10 as non-conference Home dogs of 3 points or more. Bengals are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on fieldturf and are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 1 as well as 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home gams and from a long term perspective are 35-17-2 ATS in their last 54 games in September. Play on the Cincinnati Bengals to cover |
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09-12-21 | Jaguars v. Texans +3 | 21-37 | Win | 100 | 5 h 33 m | Show | |
Jacksonville's Trevor Lawrence in my humble betting opinion is being over hyped here. The kid was great at Clemson, but Im not sure he is ready to starter in this league just yet. I know QB Dshaun Watson wont be under center for the Texans, but the Texans: 6-0 SU last six games in this series while the Jaguars have lost 7 straight road games and have been a chalk in only two of its last 24 overall trips to the grid-ion , with both of those tilts ending a loss for the Jags. with that said, Ill take the points with the completely disrespected home dog. NFL Underdogs or pick (HOUSTON) - excellent offense from last season - averaged 360 or more total yards/game, versus division opponents are 24-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. NFL Favorites (JACKSONVILLE) - team that had a losing record last season, in conference games are 130-204 ATS L/38 seasons for a go against long term 61% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Texans to cover |
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09-09-21 | Cowboys +8 v. Bucs | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 38 h 46 m | Show | |
I know the Dallas Cowboys are off a down season, but with a healthy Dak Prescott back behind center Im betting the Cowboys will have a bounce back season, as long as health issues don't rear their ugly head again. I know Mike McCarthy the Cowboys coach did not have a very efficient first season at the helm of Americas team, but the last time one his teams had a sub .500 campaign he bounced back with a 11 win season. Meanwhile, their opponents tonight the defending Super Bowl Champs will be Im betting in an emotional hang over mode. Note: Super Bowl champs are 12-24-1 ATS L/ in their first two games of the new season, as 6 or more point favs. Tampa Bay is 0-5 ATS L/5 Thursday night home games. Bucs are 0-5-1 ATS L/6 vs NFC East competition. Buccaneers are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a home favorite. Buccaneers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games in Week 1. Boyz are 9-3 ATS L/12 as 7 or more point underdogs. Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. McCarthy is 95-66 ATS in games played on a grass field in all games he has coached in his career. Play on Dallas Cowboys to cover |
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02-07-21 | Chiefs v. Bucs +3 | 9-31 | Win | 100 | 59 h 43 m | Show | |
Overall Tampa Bay has had a better season than the KC Chiefs, and deserve respect here on a underdog line playing at home. In last seasons Super /bowl Kansas City had been out-gained the entire contest by the 49ers until a late game-winning 65-yard drive . In truth the wrong team won/ covered and ever since KC has been looked upon in some divine way by the betting public. Something they do not deserve in my humble betting opinion. Yes I know how great a QB Mahomes is, but Tom Brady has far superior experience and now going into this 10th Super Bowl must be considered a NFL prime time super star with god like abilities. Bottom line: Both these teams can score, and both have top teir QBs at the helm of their offense, but to me the difference maker comes on defense. Defense wins championships : Note: Tampa Bay brings the league’s seventh-ranked defense to this big game. With said, it must also be noted that the team with the better D, has won 44 of the L/53 Super Bowls. |
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01-24-21 | Bills +3 v. Chiefs | 24-38 | Loss | -100 | 59 h 59 m | Show | |
Two strong teams with two top tier QBs Josh Allen (107.2 QB Rating) , and Patrick Mahomes (108.2 ) go head to head. The game is expected to be close, but I like the Bills here getting points vs a side that 0-8-1 ATS L/9. Buffalo is 11-5-1 ATS the past couple of seasons as a underdog of 6 or less points. Bills head coach Sean McDermott 8-1 ATS as a non-division dog vs an above .500 opponent. BUFFALO is 8-1 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season. NFL Home teams vs. the money line (KANSAS CITY) - after failing to cover the spread in 8 or more of their last 10 games against opponent after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games are 3-20 L/37 seasons for a 87% conversion rate. Play on Buffalo to cover |
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01-24-21 | Bucs +3.5 v. Packers | 31-26 | Win | 100 | 49 h 29 m | Show | |
The Bucs blitzed Aaron Rodgers on 18-of-41 drop backs in the first game they played against each other, and Im betting that kind of pressure will be on todays agenda. Advantage Bucs as underdogs in a game that could easily be a pickem. TAMPA BAY is 8-2 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play this season. TAMPA BAY is 7-1 ATS in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 this season. NFL Road teams (TAMPA BAY) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/G committed) vs a team with 1.25 or less TO/G forced after 8+ games, after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 40-14 ATS L/37 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GREEN BAY) - after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 14-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Tampa Bay to cover |
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01-17-21 | Bucs +3 v. Saints | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
The Saints beat Tom Brady and company have lost both meetings this season but it must be noted that Brady is 18-3 SU revenging a division loss and 13-1 SU/ATS vs sides wtih a .300 record or better with the only loss coming to the Saints this season. Brady has never lost 3 times in a row to any team,. Considering HC Arians has won 16 of 23 road games vs division opposition and Brady seething with retribution at hand Im betting on TB getting us the cover. |
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01-17-21 | Browns v. Chiefs UNDER 57.5 | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 28 h 15 m | Show | |
After watching Cleveland take part in a run and gun all out offensive affair last time out, in their win to advance to this game , vs Pittsburgh last week, the pundits and linesmakers have jumped the gun and exaggerated this totals line. However, Im betting on the Browns knowing what they are going up against this week, and stick to their very viable ground game in an attempt to keep explosive Chiefs offense off the field as much as possible, which Im betting results in a lower scoring game than expected. KANSAS CITY is 35-17 UNDER as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points since 1992 with a combined average of 39.5 ppg scored. Reid is 21-6 UNDER when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 43.5 ppg scored. Reid is 21-8 UNDER in home games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 42.4 ppg scored. NFL Road teams against the total (CLEVELAND) - as a #6 seed in the playoffs, playoff game are 23-6 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. NFL team against the total (KANSAS CITY) - excellent passing team (265 or more PY/G) against a poor passing defense (230-265 PY/G) after 8+ games, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 29-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. Play UNDER |