The Fins are expected to be without their entire left side of the offensive line in  this weeks tilt vs the New England Pats. Last week the Dolphins suffered on offense scoring just one TD , because the starting center was out as well as the left tackle , and things could get hairy again this week vs a fairly staunch Pats D. After upsetting the Buffalo Bills last time out, the Pats now have some confidence and momentum and are viable underdogs here today. 

Belichick is 29-18 ATS  as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of NEW ENGLAND.

NEW ENGLAND is 25-10 ATS L/35 in road games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/att.

Play on New England to cover 

 After being upset last time out by Cleveland in a very physical game the 49ers are banged up with key offensive components , RB Christian McCaffrey at less than 100% with an oblique injury and WR Deebo Samuels also questionable.With that said,  the offense maybe more muted than usual . The good news for SF is they own the leagues best D, allowing just 14.5 ppg and Im sure they will give the inconsistent Vikings offense all they can handle. Advantage to the under.

Monday Night NFL Primetime tilts have  seen 7 of 8 games stay under the Total this season with a combined average of 35.9 ppg scored. Monday Night games that have the road side as chalk have gone under 17 of the L/18 times the L/3 seasons. 

Minnesota has only eclipsed the total one time in 6 games this season. Vikings have gone under in their L/4 MNF games.

SF has gone under in 5 of their L/6 back to back road games. Five of the L/seven meetings in this series have stayed on the offered total.

NFL  team against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - off an upset loss as a favorite, when playing on Monday night are 22-2 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 39.6 ppg scored.

Play under

Philadelphia is off a loss last week vs the NYJets but  actually out-gained the Jets by more than 100 yards. Im now betting on a huge bounce back performance by the Eagles against media darlings the Miami Dolphins at home in prime time this Sunday night. I know the Fins offense has been downright explosive, and have looked better than the Eagles attack, but the Eagles D is superior to that of the Dolphins by 56 plus yards a game. Since this tilt features two strong squads , Im betting as is usually the case in big games for the more physical D of the Eagles to be the difference maker. 

NFL Underdogs vs. the money line (MIAMI) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in non-conference games are 7-40 L/10 seasons for a go against  85% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at -8.9 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Play on Philadelphia to cover 

The Broncos enter this game as one of two teams this season without a victory against the spread as is evident by a  0-5-1 record ATS  thanks in part to a  31st ranked  33.3 points per game  D. I know the Broncos held the KC Chiefs to just 14 points last week , but that was in a windy atmosphere that hampered both offenses. Yes, this young Packers team, has had problems scoring of late, but that should change here this week according to my projections. 

Denver is 0-3 SU/ATS at home this season. 

DENVER is 1-10 ATS against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. DENVER is 5-15 ATS  in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.

LaFleur is 11-2 ATS  off a road loss as the coach of GREEN BAY.

NFL Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GREEN BAY) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, in the first half of the season are 35-11 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Home teams vs. the money line (DENVER) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG), after a loss by 10 or more points are 4-24 L/5 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Green Bay to cover

QB Geno Smith’s just does not have consistent flow and chemistry with the offensive part of his teams attack. and as result his TD production is way down .In last weeks loss to the Bengals  Geno Smith threw for 326 yards but the Seahawks failed to score on four of their trips to the red zone. I know the Seahawks have won 3 of their L/4, but I just dont like the way HC Carrols team plays- there is a lack of what I would call the warrior mentality .  On the flip side The Cardinals have led at halftime in 4 of their 6 games before falling apart, so they must not be under estimated in their ability to be competitive for a full 4 quarters at some point this season.  I also believe from watching some practice reports they they have made some adjustment and have decent replacements for some of their missing offensive cogs.

Take the points with the Cardinals 

I know the Giants have struggled  offensively this season ,but it must be noted that their opponents the  Commanders have a underperforming  defense that has   struggled  along the defensive line as is evident by  ranking 25th in pass rush win rate and 16th in pass rush per PFF. Meanwhile on the flipside, the Giants D is improving  as was evident in a recent game against the SF 49ers  and  should pose problems for Washingtons offensive flow. 

NFL Road teams vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) - average offensive team (295 to 335 YPG) against a team with a sub par defense (335 to 370 YPG), after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game are 1-27 L/10 seasons for a 97% go against conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road teams (WASHINGTON) - with a struggling defense - allowing 6.0 or more yards/play, after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game are 5-22 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on NY Giants to cover

The Browns are off a huge win last week vs the 49ers as underdogs, but are now going to be in an emotional as well as physical letdown scenario after their grueling battle in the trenches. This  makes the Browns vulnerable for a down performance in Indianapolis this Sunday making getting points a viable investment option. 

The Colts lost last time out by DDs to Jacksonville but have proved resilient in the past covering 12 of 14 after a DD SU/ATS defeat. 

INDIANAPOLIS is 32-17 ATS L/49 in home games versus good rushing teams - averaging 130  or more rushing yards/game.

CLEVELAND is 0-5 ATS L/5 coming off a win.

CLEVELAND is 1-8 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasonsCLEVELAND is 2-12 ATS after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. Stefanski is 15-27 ATS  against conference opponents as the coach of CLEVELAND.

NFL Home teams vs. the money line (INDIANAPOLIS) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 33-4 L/10 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Indianapolis Colts to cover

The Totals  line  (41.5) was attacked right out of the gate and for good reasons. After sinking in the hjigh 30s it was attacked again to the upside, and thats where we enter into the frey.   

It must be noted that  New Orleans’ last 16 NFL games have  seen 15 of them stay under the total ... with a  combined  average of only 31.5 combined ppg scored ! Considering their recent difficulties scoring it wont be a hard decision to estimate that the Saints points production will be muted against a up-trending Jaguars D. In the flipside the Saints D has only allowed more than 20 points one time this season, so the Jags inconsistent attack should also have problems producing points. 

Allen  in 12 games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points as the coach of NEW ORLEANS has seen a combined average of 35.5 ppg scored. .NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 UNDER in the first half of the season this season with a combined average of 34.2 ppg scored. 

 NFL THURSDAY games with a Totals Line of 40.0 or less points   have gone under 10 of the last 11 times in non division tilts. Also Thursday night games have seen  Jacksonville go under  in their L/4  dating back 5 seasons, while the Saints  have gone under in 11 of their L/12 Thursday contests dating back 10 seasons.

JACKSONVILLE is 7-0 UNDER   after gaining 150 or less passing yards in last game over the last 3 seasons.

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (JACKSONVILLE/NEW ORLEANS) - in a game involving two average passing teams (5.9-6.7 PYA). 70-28 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

The Cowboys were thoroughly embarrassed last week on national tv in prime time vs the SF 49ers, by a 42-10 count and will now be primed for a big bounce back performance. Believe me when I say pros do not like to be embarrassed and you can bet this talented and egotistical but sometimes in cohesive Cowboys group is now fully focused . Note DALLAS is 12-0 ATS  after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. DALLAS is 6-0 ATS  after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. DALLAS is 9-0 ATS  after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 season.

 DALLAS is 6-0 ATS  after allowing 30 points or more last game over the last 3 seasonsDALLAS is 6-0 ATS  after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 season.DALLAS is 6-0 ATS  after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons.

The Chargers have looked at average at best this season, with the pass /d, looking very unstable. Note:McCarthy is 7-0 ATS  vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing 260 or more passing yards/game as the coach of DALLAS.

NFL Road favorites vs. the money line (DALLAS) - after allowing 40 points or more last game are 33-4 L/10 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Dallas to cover

After allowing 42 points last week on national tv vs the 49ers the Cowboys will be primed to bounce back defensively this week with what Im betting will be a chip on their shoulders. Quote: "I'm pretty sure (Moore) wants to go out there and put it on us, but you've got to put on some perspective for what we just went through on Sunday and how we're champing at the bit to get out there and get out next game, on the road, so we can kind of just get this taste out of our mouths," Dallas safety Jayron Kearse said.

"We just went out there (against the 49ers) and had an all-time stinker for what this defense is about, and we're ready to go out there and play against somebody as well. So I'm pretty sure he's ready for it and we're ready for it as well."

DALLAS is 8-1 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 34.5 ppg going on the board. 
DALLAS is 8-0 UNDER in road games after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 37.9 ppg scored. DALLAS is 6-0 UNDER  in road games after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 41.1 ppg scored.McCarthy is 10-0 UNDER  in road games after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game as the coach of DALLAS with a combined average of 38.6 ppg scored. Dallas has gone under in 11 of their L/12 back to back road games.

Dallas has gone under in 6 of their L/7 vs AFC West. 

Chargers have gone under in 12 of their L/15 as home dogs of 4 point or less.

NFL Road teams against the total (DALLAS) - good team - outscoring opponents by 4 or more points/game, after allowing 30 points or more last game are 62-27 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

The reason for this rocketing off the opening line is because New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones will not play Sunday night against the Buffalo Bills because of a neck injury. However according to my power rankings this kine of line shift is still unjustified and over doen to extent giving us value with the underdog. Veteran backup Tyrod Taylor, who spent three seasons with the Bills, will start for New York and instead of being a hinderance could actually be a breath of fresh air for a stumbling banged up side. The Bills win but by not as much as the linesmakers might anticpate. We have already had sharp money beat back the line from a high of +16. 

NFL .600 or better sides returning from London, coming off a SUATS loss like the Bills, are 0-5 SUATS all-time.  Bills are off a  loss to the Jaguars in London last week. 

NY GIANTS is 4-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO since 1992 in games played in Buffalo. 

NFL Home teams (BUFFALO) - outgaining their opponents by 1.25 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 18-41 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate.

NFL Favorites (BUFFALO) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 50 or more yards/game, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games are 15-39 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Giants to cover

These two teams have inefficient offenses and solid defenses and Im expect a very close game, but the desperate Patriots Im betting have the edge on this type of line offering. With owner Kraft ready to fire Bill Belichick Im looking for the old ball coach to craft some magic here today.

Raiders are just 2-11 ATS L/13 vs AFC East. 

NFL Road teams (NEW ENGLAND) - off an embarrassing loss by 21 points or more as a home favorite are 24-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ENGLAND) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, in the first half of the season are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Patriots to cover

SF 49ers QB Brock Purdy are getting alot of headlines , especially after destroying the Dallas Cowboys on national TV this past Sunday. However, Im betting Purdy will be in a regressionary mode this week after that explosion vs the Cowboys as he goes against NO .1 defense in the NFL ( Cleveland Browns) that has the physicality to deal with the 49ers . With that said Im betting on a much closer game than the lines-makers public line is estimating. 

CLEVELAND is 9-1 ATS L/10 against teams who commit 0.75 or less turnovers/game on the season.

Cleveland 3-0 SU/ATS L/3 at home in this series dating back to 1992.

NFL Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more points are 8-31 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Browns to cover

 .After a two week stint in the Uk Im betting the Jags are slow out of the gate as they get acclimated to home cooking again. Home sweet home, is not so sweet for the Jaguars when  Trevor Lawrence is the QB as is evident by a  1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS  record as a home favorite . On the flip-side with under rated  QB Gardner Minshew back behind center, for the Colts Im expecting them to be ready to continue to heat up on offense.   Minshew completed 19 of 23 passes for 171 yards along with recording a positive  passer rating of 112.1 in his only start this season and is more than capable of lighting up this inconsistent Jags secondary. Jacksonville  is just 1-15 ATS as a favorite if it was an underdog in its previous game (which they were). 

Play on Indy Colts to cover 

Carolina is off a crap performance last time out in a 42-24 loss to the Lions, but have proven resilient in the past . CAROLINA is 11-2 ATS L/13 after allowing 40 points or more last game . I know Miami has proven themselves to be dynamic on offense so far this season, but will now play without injured star RB Devon Achane , who had 7 TDS in his first 4 games. I also know QB Bryce Young has not looked good out of the gate this season, but the kid is still learning the ropes and is more than capable of a big game. 

NFL Favorites (MIAMI) - with an excellent offense - averaging 360 or more total yards/game, after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 8-30 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Carolina to cover

Im betting Carolinas game plan is  to really slow this game down, by running the ball a great deal while taking their time with snaps. The Panthers D, has really been beat up on of late and Im sure a concerted effort to defend aggressively was the mantra in practice this week. /note: CAROLINA is 6-0 UNDER  after allowing 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 31.8 ppg scored. Meanwhile, I expect the Dolphins attack will not be as potent as usual as they deal with the injury to key RB RB Devon Achane who has 7 TDs in his first 4 games. This missing cog for the Fins makes them more one dimensional offense and easier to read. Advantage to the under 

NFL non-division home favorites of  8 or more points  like Miami is here today  have seen 19 of 22 tilts stay on the low side of the Total  when the offered number is  45 or more points.  

NFL  team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CAROLINA) - after 4 or more consecutive losses against the spread are 38-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the under

 Cincinnati looked good against the Arizona Cardinals last time out and are gaining momentum entering this tilt against the visiting  Seahawks.  Trends also back the the  Bengals as they  own a  7-0 ATS record  when coming off a SU away  chalk victory and are , 12-1 ATS  in tilts  when both teams are coming off a win, Meanwhile the Seahawks are just  1-10 ATS in games  after allowing 7 or fewer points  last time out . CINCINNATI is 12-1 ATS  after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons. With QB Joe Burrow looking close to 100%   after a  right calf strain, Im betting the Bengal's are the right side. Burrow looked mobile and completed  36 of 46 passes for 317 yards and three touchdowns with one interception.

I know Seattle has really been tough on opponents run against allowing just 3.18 ypc, and the Bengals have struggled running the ball but CINCINNATI is 15-4 ATS  after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 4 straight games . 

 CINCINNATI is 15-3 ATS  vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 3 seasons.CNCINNATI is 6-0 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 350 or more yards/game over the last 2 seasons.CINCINNATI is 13-4 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Cincinnati to cover

Houston (2-3) managed just one touchdown and settled for four field goals in a 21-19 road loss to Atlanta in Week 5 and I truly did not like the way they looked in that tilt especially when trying to finish drives. Meanwhile, the Saints had season highs of 42 rushes and 136 yards on the ground against New England Pats and won 34-0. That type of game plan Im sure is on the agenda again and according to my power rankings gives the visitor a significant edge on what is is essentially a pickem line. 

NEW ORLEANS is 21-8 ATS L/29 in road games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game.. NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS  in road games after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game which was the case last time out. 

NFL Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ORLEANS) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, in the first half of the season are 32-9. ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the New Orleans Saints to win 

We expecting sustained heavy winds tonight in KC, which Im betting hampers these offenses. Add to that the below applicable  trends

Reid is 13-1 UNDER  in home games vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average 35.9 ppg. Reid is 13-4 UNDER in home games vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 35.3 ppg.Reid is 15-4 UNDER  in home games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 6 or more  yards/play as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 45.4 ppg scored.Reid is 15-4 UNDER  off 2 consecutive road wins in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 40.1 ppg scored. KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER in home games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.3 ppg scored. 

Payton is 12-3 UNDER  when playing on a Thursday in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 43.6 ppg scored.DENVER is 15-3 UNDER after allowing 25 points or more in 3 straight games since 1992 with a combined average of 39 ppg scored. 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DENVER) - after 4 or more consecutive losses against the spread are 37-12 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DENVER) - after 4 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored are 37-10 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under 

The pundits and media love how well RB Christian  Mcaffery has played so far for the 49ers. But it must be noted that the Cowboys are 9-2 (.818) vs top 10 run offenses since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .433. Also the Cowboys defense has allowed scores on 5% of opponent drives in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 34%. So as this game goes on Im betting on the Cowboys to be hard to score on in what Im aslo betting will be a very competitive affair with the points being golden in the end. 

DALLAS is 9-1 ATS  in October games over the last 3 seasons. DALLAS is 16-3 ATS  in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 3-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 90% conversion rate for bettors. McCarthy is 13-3 ATS  vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game in all games he has coached since 1992

NFL Home teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - out-gaining their opponents by 1.75 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 8-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Cowboys are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in San Francisco.

The Eagles are being over rated here today against the Rams. In the Phillies first game of the season, they were out gained handily by the Patriots and still found a way to win, and three of their victories were all one score decisions, including last weeks OT winner. Meanwhile, on the flipside the Rams have registered better offensive and defensive numbers than the Eagles, to this point in the campaign and must be respected here getting points on their own home field. 

PHILADELPHIA is 0-6 ATS  after scoring 25 points or more in 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons.The Eagles have lost 16 of their 25 SU vs NFC West. 

LA RAMS are 15-4 ATS L/19 in home games versus good rushing defenses - allowing 3.5 or less rushing yards/carry .

NFL Favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - solid team - out-gaining their opponents by 50 or more yards/game, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games are 12-38 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on LA Rams to cover

We have an early season, QB alert on board as the Houston Texans’ C.J. Stroud is playing a top tier brand of football under center  Entering this game he is off a  280 yard and two touchdown performance last week in a  30-6 thumping  of the  Pittsburgh Steelers . It must be noted that he is the  first QB in league history to average 300 passing yards  in the first tilts of the campaign and has given up no interceptions so far . The same cannot be said, about Atlanta QB Desmond Ridder who has seen his team score just 6 and 7 points in their last two trips to the gridiron including last weeks London England loss to the Jags. Now coming off a trip across the pond Im betting the Falcons will be a bit jet lagged and for the offense to continue to plummet. 

Atlanta is 0-7 ATS L/7 non division games. 

NFL Home favorites (ATLANTA) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 5-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Home favorites (ATLANTA) - after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game are 4-24 ATS L/10 seasons for ago against 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Texans to cover

Giants have been embarrassed a couple times already this season, and are off a ugly home loss on Monday night vs Seattle. It must be noted however, that the Gmen are 6-0 ATS L/6 after a MNF battle. With Miami now hot with a reality blow last week to their egos vs the Bills, Im betting it will be  hard for the Fins to get motivated and up off the matt vs a side that hardly brings respect  with them.

NY GIANTS are 13-4 ATS off a home blowout loss by 21 points or more since 1992.

MIAMI is 1-9 ATS in October games over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Road underdogs of 10.5 or more points (NY GIANTS) - after 2 or more consecutive losses, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 22-2 ATS L/10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors. 

Take the points with the Giants to cover

I know the Panthers have not won this season,  but they  held two of their four opponents  to season-low yardage and must not be underestimated in this ability to be competitive vs the Lions today. Note: Reich is 15-3 ATS  L/18 in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 350  or more yards/game in all games he has coached in his career. 

Carolina is 16-8 ATS L/24  as underdogs against the NFC North . 

Detroit is 1-6 ATS L/7 as non division home favs of 3 points or more. 

Carolina is 4-1 ATS L/5 in this series.

NFL home favorites (DETROIT) - outgaining their opponents by 1.75 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 8-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Carolina to cover

After last weeks embarrassing loss to the Texans Im betting on a huge rebound here today against the Ravens  by a 30-6 count. Pros dont like to be embarrassed and believe or not the culture of grit still remains in the Steel City. PITTSBURGH is 10-2 ATS  in home games off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more since 1992. PITTSBURGH is 6-0 ATS in home games after allowing 30 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons.

The last 4 meetings in this series has seen the Steelers win 3 of those games with all of the tilts being low scoring physical grinders with each game decided by 3 points or less . Im betting nothing changes today. 

BALTIMORE is 3-11 ATS  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) - slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less last game are 33-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BALTIMORE) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more points are 8-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Steelers to cover

 Washingtons issues right now are on defense where they have allowed 33, 37, 34 points in their L/3 games. Also the Commanders are now in an emotional  letdown spot after playing all out football against the Eagles last time out  before eventually losing in OT. I know the bad news Bears are really reeling, but after a 0-4 start will desperate for a win and in desperation mode have an edge vs a vulnerable Commanders side . 

WASHINGTON is 16-32 ATS  as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

NFL Home favorites (WASHINGTON) - off a road loss, in the first half of the season are 25-61 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Road teams (CHICAGO) - after allowing 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games against opponent after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 55-24 ATS L/30 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Bears to cover

The Giants need a won here desperately as after tonight's game they go against, Dolphins and Bills in successive weeks. I know NYG has a some issues with key 
RB Barkely out , but Im betting QB Daniels and company can slice and dice a weak Seattle secondary, and a /defensive group that ranks 27th in EPA per play and 26th in Success Rate. Gmen are 7-1 ATS when coming off a loss and 12-2 ATS when coming off a Thursday prime prime time  tilt. 

NY GIANTS are 11-3 ATS vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons. NY GIANTS are 18-5 ATS L/23 after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games.

Carroll is 15-25 ATS  as a road favorite of 7 points or less as the coach of SEATTLE

NFL Underdogs or pick (NY GIANTS) - terrible passing team (5.3 or less PY/Att.) against a horrible passing defense (7.3 or more  PY/Att.), after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 23-4 L/40 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NY GIANTS) - after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 39-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on NY Giants to cover

Raiders QB Garoppolo may not start this week, but one thing is for sure he is not performing optimally right now and if hes replaced I dont believe the it will be a difference maker. Despite of this QB situation with Vegas, I do believe they matchup well here overall vs a San Diego Chargers side that played hard last week in Minnesota for their first win of the season, and is now in an emotional letdown situation . Chargers QB Herbert finished 40-of-47 for a career-high 405 yards and three touchdowns against the Vikings, but now regression must be expected. 

Bottom line : Considering the QB situation for Vegas I expect star RB Jacobs  who rushed for a league-leading 1,653 yards and scored 12 touchdowns last season, averaging 4.9 yards a carry to be key here in keeping the Raiders on the edge of victory today. It must be noted that the Chargers have looked sub par on  on defense this season,   ranking 31st in the NFL in total defense (450.7 ypg allowed) and 32nd in passing defense (337.0 ypg allowed). So even if Hoyer or the rookie Aidan O'Connell starts the Chargers sub par secondary should seal their fate with Jacobs setting up the pass with his legs. 

A CHARGERS are 14-28 ATS (L/42  in home games after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game.

NFL Home teams (LA CHARGERS) - with an incredible offense - averaging 385 or more total yards/game, after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games are 6-26 L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Raiders to cover

Philadelphia got blasted last season in embarrassing fashion in a  Monday Night home loss as double-digit favs  to the Commanders last season and now want revenge. However, like Mick Jagger of the iconic Rolling stones  likes to say ' you don't always get what you want. With that said, Im betting on another gritty performance from a never say die group of commodores in what will be a much closer game the the lines-makers are estimating. Washington HC Rivera is 21-9 ATS L/30 vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game in all games he has coached. 

NFL team (WASHINGTON) - off a home loss, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 47-19 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Washington to cover

Bengals are on short rest after a grinding and physical battle on Monday night  vs the Rams, and are not 100% at the quarter back position with Joe Burrows playing banged up with a bad ankle. Here against a very strong defensive Titans front the Bengals Im betting have a hard time being consistent offensively. Advantage Titans. 

TENNESSEE is 11-3 ATS  vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 or less yards per return over the last 3 seasons. TENNESSEE is 8-1 ATS  in October games over the last 3 seasons.TENNESSEE is 16-5 ATS   in home games after scoring 9 points or less last game. 

NFL Road teams vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - in a game involving two poor rushing teams (70-95 RY/game), after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 6-21 L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tennessee to cover

Carolina despite of a top tier offense, are now in desperation mode as they search for their first victory of the season .  Their issues have come mostly because of turnovers , but that should rectify itself as the season progresses. Luckily for the Vikes they take on a 0-3 Carolina side that is less talented and even more inept as is evident by -9 ppg diff on the season. Im betting on  quarterback Kirk Cousins, who enters Week 4 with a league-leading 1,075 passing yards to really light things up here this Sunday as the Vikings come away with a convincing victory. 

CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS n home games vs. sub par punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.CAROLINA is 3-12 ATS  off 1 or more straight overs over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover

The Colts offense is less than spectacular and that corresponds to  QB Gardner Minshew’s record of 2-10 SU in his L/12 trips to the gridiron. I know the Indy thanks  to some strong D and  fine FG kicking found a way past the Ravens last week for their 2nd straight win , but  it must be noted that the Colts despite of their decent run have been outgained in each of their games this season. . It must also be noted that the Colts are  0-8-1 ATS at home when coming off consecutive SUATS victories, .  Add to that Sean McVay is 5-0 ATS when coming off a loss in his career, against opposition coming off a SU underdog victory. I like the Rams coaching their overall team chemistry especially Stafford at QB  and feel strongly they come out of here with a cover this Sunday. 

NFL Road teams (LA RAMS) - after playing their last game on the road, in the first month of the season are 34-12 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the LA Rams to cover

After allowing 37 points in. a loss vs Houston last week you can bet this Jacksonville coaching staff went to work here to motivate their embarrassed players into having a much better and concentrated effort this Sunday. It must also be noted that after scoring just nine points in a 17-9 loss to Kansas City, Jacksonville failed to score in the first half last week and its obvious their offense is just not clicking . Thats    evident by  quarterback Trevor Lawrences  one touchdown pass record in his last two games. Here against a Flacons side, that have been solid defensively I just cant see things getting much better from a production standpoint. On the flipside the Flacons depend greatly on their ground attack to keep the pressure of their young QB Ridder who is in his 2nd season. With that said, Im betting on alot of clock being eaten up here by the Falcons via the run game  and for a much better effort from Jacksonville defensively to help us stay under the number here this week in London. 

Jacksonville  is 10-2 UNDER after allowing 30 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons.

ATLANTA is 14-4 UNDER vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 3 seasons.

  Games played at WEMBLEY STADIUM   have gone a  perfect 6-0 UNDER  in the last L/5 seasons, with an average of only 35.3 combined PPG going up on the scoreboard.

Play on the under

Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence,   has just one touchdown pass in the last two games and its obvious this team is in a funk, and according to my power rankings fade material in this current form vs a solid Falcons D. Here in a game against and Atlanta side built to run the ball, Im betting a grinding clock will keep the Jags out of tempo on offense and cause more problems for them. What Im saying is this is not a good matchup for the Jags. Note:JACKSONVILLE is 5-16 ATS  against NFC South division opponents since 1992 and is 1-9 ATS  in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Atlanta owns a  2-0 ATS record  in the international series and have covered their L/ 6 ATS  vs the Jags. 

Play on Atlanta to cover

The Bengals QB Joe  Burrow  is not 100% after he aggravated his right calf strain in Sunday's 27-24 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. His calf has not been 100% since training camp started. Burrow did not practice Thursday  and was expected to practice Monday morning but even if he plays will not be as mobile as he needs to be against aggressive groups of Rams. Meanwhile, Rams star QB Stafford recently  passed Peyton Manning for the third-most passing yards by a player in his first 200 regular-season games (52,723 yards in 193 games). Rams won their first game of the season, but lost to their nemesis last week the  Niners. Stafford completed 34 of 55 passes for 307 yards and is primed to come back strong this week vs what has looked like a unstable Bengals secondary so far this season. I know the Bengals are desperate for a win, but without a healthy Burrows at the helm of the offense that task will not be an easy one. NFL Home favorites (CINCINNATI) - after 1 or more consecutive losses, in the first half of the season are 34-83 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Rams to cover

Bears are not a respected team, and after 12 straight losses are a side that is not getting much respect from the linesmakers against what is obviously a far superior side the KC Chiefs. The Bears are not expected to be competitive this week, but I think few are considering that the Chiefs may not be very motivated while the opposite will hold true for a Bears group playing loose and with nothing to lose. With that said Im willing to take the DD point spread in complete contrarian action. KANSAS CITY is 0-8 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons

NFL Road teams (CHICAGO) - after playing their last game on the road, in the first month of the season are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Bears have covered 3 of their L/4 visits to KC. 

Play on the Chicago Bears to cover

Im not buying in on a Seattle resurgence,  and this week against Carolina Im betting on an emotional letdown scenario to hamper the home side. Last week the Seahawks, grabbed a overtime victory against the  Detroit Lions in a heart pumping affair.  Meanwhile,  the Panthers were edged out by a FG  at  home against  the New Orleans Saints in prime time  Monday night action. I myself see major upward momentum and confidence building in Carolina, Note:  Seahawks are 0-4 ATS  L4  vs the NFC South,  

Also I know Carolina rookie quarterback Bryce Young, the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL draft in April, is banged up and  didn't participate in Wednesday's walk-through practice because of an ankle injury and is questionable to play against the Seahawks (1-1) But Veteran Andy Dalton is a more than capable starter for the Panthers and could easily make the Panthers offense more cohesive.

SEATTLE is 1-8 ATS  after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Home favorites (SEATTLE) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 24 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 11-39 ATS since 1983 for a 78% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Carolina Panthers to cover

These teams have a recent history of taking part in some high scoring affairs as is evident by the L/7 meetings eclipsing the total with a combined average of 52.1 ppg going on the scoreboard. I know Carolinas offense has not looked all that explosive out of the gate this season, but they    do go  against a Seattle side that is off a 37-31 slugfest last time out and that also allowed 30 points in a loss to the Rams in week 1 play. With that said, my projections estimate both these sides will score 21 plus points. SEATTLE is 10-0 OVER   when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons. CAROLINA is 6-0 OVER  when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons.

Carroll is 31-17 OVER after a win by 6 or less points as the coach of SEATTLE

NFL team against the total (SEATTLE) - off a upset win as an underdog against opponent off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival are 26-6 OVER L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over

Miami has started their season at 2-0 while their opponents the Denver Broncos  have lost their first two games but by a combined 3 points. Denver has consistently been competitive but just cant get over the hump for a W, but when getting points must respected from. a ATS perspective. Denver has lost 9 straight games where it had the lead at half time. Quote "As we've learned the past few years, almost every game is one score -- seven points, three points," Broncos center Lloyd Cushenberry III said.  Quote "We need to finish those games 'cause we've lost too many over the past four years that I've been here." end quote. Today Im betting new HC Sean Payton finds a way to stay in this game here in Miami against a Fins side, that is coming home after two hard fought affairs, vs the Chargers and Patriots and could easily be in a emotional letdown situation this week. Its not an easy proposition to keep your energy levels up as a team for three straight games in the ultra physical NFL. Note: HC Payton  24-6-2 ATS in his NFL career against sides  coming off a victory.

MIAMI is 47-22 ATS (+22.8 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.

Play on Denver Broncos to cover

Houston has owned the Jags in previous  meetings here in Jacksonville Florida winning   15 of their L/18 visits here  SU and have cashed  5 of their L/6  SU/ATS as a underdog in this series overall.  I know  Houston has lost both their games so far this season, but they did win the stats war in both games and must not be underestimated in their ability to get the job done here again. I know The Jags  smashed the host Texans 31-3 in Week 17 of last season to end a nine-game losing streak against Houston, but now with big time revenge on board and the desperation of needing a victory Im betting on a big time effort from the visitors. 

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence has never won at home as a NFL favorite going 0-4 ATS while losing 3 of 4 SU. It must also be noted that  Jacksonville is  1-14 ATS as a favorite if they  were a underdog in their last game. JACKSONVILLE is 22-38 ATS L/60 after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better.

NFL Home favorites (JACKSONVILLE) - after 1 or more consecutive losses, in the first half of the season are 34-83 ATS L/5 seasons for a  go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Texans to cover 

The Patriots have beaten the Jets 14 straight times  and after going down 0-2 already are desperate for a win , which is unfortunate for QB  Zach Wilson and his NY Jets. Considering  Bill Belichick 18-3 SU L/21  in games when coming off back to back losses Im betting the Pats winning streak against the Jets remains intact. Also it must be noted without Aaron Rodgers under center for the Jets they will have major problems moving the ball. 

Play on New England to win

I like the Chargers here this week despite of some early season ugly defensive performances especially in the secondary. . As result of their defensive issues they are 0-2 with both losses coming via FG or less margin of defeat,    This a very good Chargers team and their record is not indicative their true talents   On the flipside, Ive watched the Vikings and they are a team that is set for major regression, both on offense and defense, and thanks to a -6 turnover margin are side that does not deserve respect here even at home, especially against an extremely hungry team that is much deeper in my opinion. 

NFL Road teams (LA CHARGERS) - after playing their last game on the road, in the first month of the season are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Road underdogs or pick (LA CHARGERS) - excellent passing team from last season - averaged 275 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 24-5 ATS since 1983 for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chargers to cover

Oddsmakers aren’t giving the Giants much of a chance this week. However, my projections estimate this line is bloated and gives us value with the road underdog. The The Giants proved their offense can be explosive as was evident in a  31 points  second half output against the Cardinals in Week 2 for a come from behind victory and must be underestimated in their ability to some damage here this week in San Francisco. I know the Gmens top tier  RB Saquon Barkley is banged up and may not play, but even then my projections say this is just to much lumber for the 49ers to lay. Advantage Giants.

NY GIANTS are 22-9 ATS L/31 in road games after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game .NY GIANTS are 18-4 ATS  L/22 after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games.

NFL Road teams (NY GIANTS) - after playing their last game on the road, in the first month of the season are 32-9 ATS L/5 seasons for  a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road teams (NY GIANTS) - after playing their last game on the road, in September games are 26-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on NY Giants to cover

Mike Tomlin's team was completely embarrassed last week vs the 49ers by a 30-7 count. Ugly to say the least. Pros dont like to be embarrassed and Im betting the Steelers as a group bounce back here in a big way. It must be noted that Tomlin is  8-1 SU  when his side needs to even up their record. Tomlin is also   14-4-4 ATS as a home dog in his career as Steelers coach. . I know Cleveland had a big victory last week vs Cincinnati , but it the recent past this has not been a good omen for this group as they are  1-9 ATS L/10 when coming off a SUATS victory.  

CLEVELAND is 2-13 ATS L/15 in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival .

NFL Underdogs or pick (PITTSBURGH) - off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first two weeks of the season are 24-4 ATS L/10 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

Pittsburgh ahs won and covered the L/2 meetings at home between these sides.PITTSBURGH is 28-3 straight up against CLEVELAND since 1992 in Pittsburgh. 

Play on Pittsburgh Steelers to cover

Niners had the league’s No.1 scoring defense last season  allowing just  17.2 ppg  and are off holding the Steelers to  7 points and a total of  239 yards on offense. On the flipsdie, the Rams, travelled to  Seattle in week 1 action and  slowed the Seahawks down to a crawl, as is evident by  allowing just  180 total yards and  only 13 points. 

Needless to say both the LA Rams and the SF 49ers looked very good defensively in game 1 of the season. Both did this while playing in the visitors role. Note:NFL Game2  sides  playing in the their 2nd  of back-to-back away tilts like the 49ers  have only eclipsed the offered total just twice in 18 opportunities dating back 7 seasons. Also away  sides like SF,  have  gone under 13 of their L/14  road  games  after allowing 7  pts or less  on the road in their  previous  game. SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 UNDER in road games after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons.

Defense, Defense and more defense today in what Im betting will be a grinding tilt. 

NFL Road teams against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - excellent offense from last season - averaged 5.7 or more yards/play, versus division opponents are 26-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team against the total (LA RAMS) - excellent passing team from last season - had a completion pct of 64% or better, versus division opponents are 56-23 UNDER L/5 season for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under 

There might have been to much hype surrounding the Bears in game 1 of the season against a Green Bay Packers side that has now beaten them in 9 straight and 24 of the L/27 meetings. Yes, the Bears looked bad in their first game of the season, but I still believe they will be an improved team, despite not necessarily being a play off contender. Here today against the Bucs Im betting they give their backers something to feel good about, as QB  Fields and new acquisition DJ Moore should up their games, after that previous embarrassing effort.  Meanwhile, their opposition, the Bucs might even be a worse of than the bad news Bears, as in game 1 of the season the offense averaged just 3.6 yards per play while the defense allowed 5.9 YPP. The Bucs still managed to win because of a 3-0 turnover margin, but they looked horrendous in the victory, and are being over rated while their opponents the Bears todays  opponent might be under rated in this matchup. Whatever, the case I like the points here and Im recommending we go on the take the lesser of two evils. 

TAMPA BAY is 1-8 ATS  after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 2 seasons.

NFL Road teams (CHICAGO) - off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first two weeks of the season are 22-2 ATS L/10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home favorites (TAMPA BAY) - team that had a losing record last season, in conference games are 99-171 since 1983 for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Chicago Bears to cover

Bengals star QB is off a ugly game  week 1 performance vs Cleveland, where he registered a unfamiliar 52.2 passer rating. You can now bet the top gun quarterback will be primed for a big bounce back this week against the Baltimore Ravens.  Bengals QB Burrow is 13-1 SUATS in his NFL career in games against opposition coming off a SU/ATS win like the Ravens.CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS  after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons.CINCINNATI is 3-0 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons at home.  Rinse and repeat. 

Play on Cincinnati to cover

Colts QB Richardson was  overall  impressive in his first NFL start. He   ran for a score but also completed a 39-yard touchdown pass to Michael Pittman Jr. He passed for 223 yards, completed 24 of 37 attempts and looks to be very poised under center and must be respected here in the underdog role. Meanwhile, his QB  opponent Stroud, is a viable young arm, but Richardson looks more polished at this point and from my perspective the Colts are the overall deeper , healthier  and more talented side and I wont be surprised if they win this game straight up. Stroud did not get a TD in first outing and the sledding promises to be less than easy in this tilt. 

NFL Home teams vs. the money line (HOUSTON) - sub par team from last season - outgained by their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play are 5-26 L/10 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate.

NFL Road teams (INDIANAPOLIS) - off a home loss by 10 or more points, in the first two weeks of the season are 22-2 ATS L/10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate.

INDIANAPOLIS is 15-6 straight up against HOUSTON since 1992 in Houston and won their last visit here.

Play on Indianapolis to cover

Philadelphia did not look good against New England  this past Sunday, but found a way to win even tough they were out yarded by 131 yards. Meanwhile, the Vikings lost despite of out gaining their opponent, the Tampa bay Bucs by 127 yards. It must ber noted that  Minnesota's' QB Kirk Cousins is 29-9  ATS when his team were defeated the previous week. I know these teams showed diff results on the scoreboard, but I like the way the Vikes lineup here vs a injury riddled Eagles lineup , and they will get my support getting points. Philadelphia is n 0-6 ATS in  their L/6 home openers, 

NFL Home favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 18-45 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Minnesota to cover

The Jets  and Bills have a recent low scoring matchup history as is evident by three straight under in the last 3 meetings  with   37, 37, and 32 combined points going on the scoreboard. Last season Buffalo went under the Total in 7 of 8 road games when favored, while the Jets went under in 4 of 5 games as home pups. BUFFALO is 6-0 UNDER  as a road favorite of 7 points or less over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 35.4 ppg scored. BUFFALO is 7-0 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 38.3 ppg scored. 

Also Monday night home dogs have remained on the low side of the number 13 straight times over the last couple of seasons. Considering this field is prob going to be in bad shape after the Dallas. NY Giants games on Sunday it would be fair to access that the sledding could be rough for the offenses which once again favors a lower scoring affair. 

NFL Road teams against the total (BUFFALO) - excellent offense from last season - averaged 5.7 or more yards/play, versus division opponents are 24-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play under 

The Rams had a bad season last year, but that was in part due to key injuries including top gun QB M Stafford who is now healthy. Im now betting on a rebound from the Rams, and on the flipside for QB Geno Smith and company to regress after a better than expected season in 2022. Note: The Rams have cashed 5 of their L/6 season openers, while the Seahawks have failed to cover 7 of their L/8 as division home favs of 3 points or more. Rams are also 7-3 ATS L/10 as division road dogs. 

. LA RAMS is 4-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons and have covered their L/2 trips to Seattle.

Play on Rams to cover

Las Vegas’ key offseason move came under center as they replaced Derek Carr with Jimmy Garoppolo and if he stays healthy he will pay dividends for this Raiders franchise.The Las Vegas Raiders have won their last six matchups with the Denver Broncos and Im betting they wont lose this game easily making getting points a viable investment option. It must also be noted that Denver has failed to cover 6 straight as division home favs. I know there is hype behind the Broncos but until they prove themselves with actual wins instead of just being competitive they are fade material. 

LAS VEGAS is 41-24 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992

NFL Home favorites (DENVER) - poor team from last season - outscored by opponents by 4 or more points/game, versus division opponents are 16-43 ATS. since 1983 for a go against conversion rate of 73% for bettors.

Play on the Raiders to cover

New England’s offense has had an offseason revamp following the hiring of new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien and Im betting they will be more aggressive offensively right out of the gate. The type of football that QB Mac Jones, thrived on in his days with Alabama will be implemented here with key receivers  getting  his attention, including new acquisition JuJu Smith-Schuster. The Patriots have won four of the past five regular-season meetings and most not be underestimated here today at home. Defensively Im betting on  LB Matt Judon to wreak havoc on the Eagles in an all out physical battle that favors the Pats. 

Eagles 2-6 ATS in their last eight non-division away games. 

NEW ENGLAND is 26-13 ATS as a home underdog since 1992. New England is 12-3 SU L/15 home season openers under Bill Belichick .

The loser of the previous Super Bowl  if they are away in Game One of the campaign are just 2-15 ATS dating back 33 seasons.

Play on New England Pats to cover

The Carolina Panthers are set to start the 2023 season with a rookie quarterback. Bryce Young, but he is a quality player who learns quickly and must not be under estimated in his ability to get out of the gate quickly. Meanwhile, Second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder goes for Atlanta. Ridder played  four games and was sacked nine times. In those four games, he only passed for 708 yards and can hardly looked upon as a strong candidate to have a fluid game. My assessment and projections estimate a close game that could easily be decided by FG which gives us an edge with the underdog.

Favorites (ATLANTA) - in the first month of the season, non-playoff team from prior season who won their last 2 games are 6-29 L/10 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate. 

Carolina has covered thier last 2 visits to Atlanta. 

Carolina to cover

KC has not lost a season opener since 2014 and Im betting they nab a victory again against what many believe is a top tier Lions squad. Truth is the Lions still have not proved anything and here against a top tier squad could find the sledding tough. I know Kelce may not play Thursday night and  Jones who is holding out for a new contract may also not be there, but this Chiefs team is deep and deserves respect as less than TD home fav on opening night. Note: Motowns D allowed 6.2 yard per play last year) 

KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

KC HC Andy Reid is  6-0 SUATS career record on Thursdays against non-division opposition with every win coming  by double-digits.

Play on KC Chiefs to win /cover

Detroit is 12-0 OVER Game 1 of the season and have gone over  4 straight vs AFC West... DETROIT is 14-1 OVER  in road games against AFC West division opponents since 1992. Lions allowed 6.2 ypg on D last season dead last in the NFL. Im betting on Mahomes and company to rack up points again, and for Lions QB  Jeff Goff  who had 4438 yards and 29 TDs last season to reciprocate with some offensive fireworks of their own. KC is  8-0  L/8 OVER  Game 1 of the campaign... 8-0 OVER  L8 vs Motown with a combined average 56 ppg scored. . Chiefs scored 44 points  in the opening week win over the Arizona Cardinals in 2022, and have scored at least 33 points in every opener since 2017 and they Im betting will be the the catalysts for what Im betting will be an over cashing for us here tonight.

Play over. 

The Chiefs are being under valued here by the linesmakers and some of the betting pundits. Phillies passing D while ranked No.1 in the league, still remains their weakest link against top tier pocket passers like Mahomes, and Im betting  that will be the difference maker in the end. Both  drop back passers Dak Prescott and Gared Goff both put up big numbers on the Eagles this season, and Mahomes will also thrive.  On the flip-side Eagles QB Jalen  Hurts is not 100% with a shoulder issue, and despite having a solid running game to aid him, that wont be entirely enough to produce the offense needed to beat an experienced super bowl QB  and league MVP like Mahomes. 

Mahomes is 9-1 ATS as a underdog in his NFL career, as well as 19-3 SU in non conference games and 4-0 SU vs NFC East opposition. 

Reid is 13-4 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 or more rushing yards/game in the second half of the season as the coach of KANSAS CITY.

Play on Kansas City to cover

Im betting the Eagles have no intention of turning this into a shootout, but rather a war of attrition and that means they will  stubbornly stick to their vaunted ground attack which in turn will eat up alot of clock time. Meanwhile, the Chiefs under rated D, will not be easily  be run over and points for the Eagles will Im betting be muted . These two key projections have me taking an under wager here this Sunday for the Super Bowl. 

KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER  versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play in the second half of the season this season.KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER   after a win by 3 or less points over the last 2 seasons. Under is 5-1 in Chiefs last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.

PHILADELPHIA is 16-4 UNDER L/20  after allowing 250 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games  Under is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 games overall.Under is 5-0 in Eagles last 5 games on grass.Under is 16-5-1 in Eagles last 22 playoff games.Under is 60-27 in Eagles last 87 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

 Play UNDER

I know alot has been made of how the Bengals have won 3 straight meetings vs the Chiefs. But now Im betting on a huge redemption minded performance from the KC here in Sundays play off game. Note:  Chiefs HC Andy Reid’  in games with triple revenge-exact is 7-1 ATS at home, including 5-0 ATS at home off a win. I know superstar quarterback Mahomes has  suffered a high-ankle sprain in last week’s 27-20 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, but he practiced this week without a hitch and Im betting his injury is being exaggerated.

A key factor here today for Burrows and company is a banged up offensive line, and could be without three starting offensive linemen . All and all Im betting home field advantage and Mahomes inexplicable need to get a win here will be the difference maker.

Reid is 14-1 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better as the coach of KANSAS CITY.

NFL Road teams vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a top-level team (75% or better ) playing a team with a winning record are 5-25 L/10 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on KC to cover 

I know Joe Burrows and Patrick Mahomes keep the spot light on a possible shootout, but according to my projections that is unlikely in a do or die championship  play off game.  The Chiefs have allowed an average of just 19.4 ppg at home this season while the Bengals have allowed just 20.6 ppg in away tilts.  

 KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER  after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games this season with a combined average of 41.5 ppg scored.

CINCINNATI is 10-1 UNDER as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 39 ppg scored.CINCINNATI is 11-3 UNDER   in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 43.5 ppg scored. 

Six of the L/7 meetings here in KC between these teams has stayed on the low side of the offered Total. 

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (KANSAS CITY) - off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog are 49-21 UNDER  L/39 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

These sides the San Francisco 49ers and the Philadelphia Eagles are  very evenly, matched  but Im betting the difference maker will be the 49ers Niners’  PK Robbie Gould, who has made all 67 of his career playoff kicks, including 38  consecutive extra-point attempts including  29 FGs for a perfect 100% conversion rate. Add in the Niners  protracted play off experience, and home field advantage is in my betting mind negated. 

SAN FRANCISCO is 7-0 ATS  vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing 24 or more  yards per return in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. SAN FRANCISCO is 12-2 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more  yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 ATS  vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. SAN FRANCISCO is 8-1 ATS  versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6 or more yards/play in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Shanahan is 11-1 ATS  in January games as the coach of SAN FRANCISCO.

NFL Favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 9-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  79% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 5-25 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on 49ers to cover 

 Niners rookie QB Brock Purdy has won his first six starts and deserves respect here in a place where the 49ers have dominated opponents. The 49ers at Levi’s Stadium,  have victories in  13 of their last 14 and covered 12 of those games. With an 11 game current overall win streak that highlights their effectiveness Im betting the hosts  get the job done again behind a top tier D, and a running back in  RB Christian McCaffrey who matches up well  against the Cowboys strong D. I know DakPrescott looked good against the horrid D, of the Bucs lat week, but this Sunday night Im betting his life will be made miserable by aggressive pass rushing group .SAN FRANCISCO is 7-1 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season this season.SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 ATS  in home games after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game over the last 2 seasons.

Play on SF 49ers to cover 

Cincinnati is just 1-6 In ITS  against fellow playoff sides  this season and have lost the stats battles in 3 straight games by an average o 139 ypg. I don't care how many good ATS trends support the Bengals taking points it just not justify their current play and in my betting opinion are over rated at less than a TD dogs.  Note: The Bengals  banged up offensive line is down to just tow reg starters. Look for Burrows to spend a great deal of time scrambling around today and will land  on his back more than once. On the flip side Buffalos Josh allan after suffering with a sore wrist looks to be back on form and will primed for a big day. 

 McDermott is 11-1 ATS  after a win by 3 or less points as the coach of BUFFALO.

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CINCINNATI) - poor rushing team (70-95 RY/game) against a team with an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/game), after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 62-108 L/29 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road teams vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a top-level team (75%  or better ) playing a team with a winning record are 25-4 L/10 seasons for a 86% conversion rate.

Play on Buffalo to cover 

The Giants are being under rated in this tilt considering they  11-2 ATS underdog with HC  Brian Daboll at the helm.  Also it must be noted that the Gmen were involved in  14 one-score tilts this season  cashing at a  12-1-1 ATS rate proving how highly competitive they were behind a never say die attitude and top tier chemistry.  I know the Giants lost both times to the Eagles this season, but now in double revenge the Giants are the right side at this line  offering. 

NY GIANTS are 7-1 ATS  vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season this season.

PHILADELPHIA is 15-31 ATS  in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PHILADELPHIA) - after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 3 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 8-37 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Giants to cover

The Jaguars were trailing 27-0 before making. a miraculous comeback last time out,vs the Chargers . However, now Im betting the Jags will be in a huge  a huge emotional letdown spot against a rested Kansas City side that will be ready to put the pedal to the metal and not let  off the accelerator til the very end.KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 or more  rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.JACKSONVILLE is 1-8 ATS  in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons. Note:

HC Reid’s 19 career postseason victories have been by double-digit margins. Rinse and repeat in play this week vs the Jags.

Play on the Chiefs to cover 

In Tom Brady Brady we trust . The GOAT  is a 19-time division champion and is 7-0 SU in his career versus  the  Dallas Cowboys .  I will  happily take the points here with one of the great all time QBs in  NFL history in a key play off game. Hey don't get me wrong Dak Prescott is a excellent QB as well but he has a propensity for turning the ball over via interceptions. 

DALLAS is 5-15 ATS in road games in January games since 1992. 

Cowboys are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games and are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games.Cowboys are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on a natural surface. Cowboys are 0-3-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Buccaneers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings

NFL Favorites (DALLAS) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (18-23 PPG), after a loss by 10 or more points are 9-33 ATS L/10 seasons for go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tampa Bay to cover

Baltimore ranks third in scoring defense (18.5 points allowed per game) and tied for ninth in total defense (324.3 yards allowed per game). I know alot of focus is on whether Ravens QB Lamar Jackson will play, but Im betting the difference maker here comes via the Ravens ability to play physical ball against a team that has played every game like its their last. Which for me is not a good omen going into the play offs, as exhaustion and regression could easily rare their ugly heads at the worst possible time. Remember Baltimore beat Cincinnati in week 5 and in my opinion valid underdogs in this tilt. 

BALTIMORE is 31-15 ATS l/36 in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better, ) Harbaugh is 6-0 ATS  in road games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse as the coach of BALTIMORE.

CINCINNATI is 3-13 ATS  versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 150  or more rushing yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CINCINNATI) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 9-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion run for bettors.

Play on Baltimore to cover 

 The Bills’   this past season had some problems with the  Dolphins  Closing as 4.5-point favorites in the first meeting, they were defeated by a 21-19. than as  7-point chalk the second time round and barely squeezed   by in that matchup be a 32-29 score. Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here as I have this tilt projected at less than a TD for Buffalo thus giving us value with an underdog take with the Fins.Underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Bills are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Play on the Dolphins to cover 

Im betting Miami turns this into a physical grinding play off affair that ends in a combined score that will not eclipse this totals offering. Slow and easy will be the clock eating mission of the Fins as they try to keep QB Josh Allen on the sidelines as long as possible.  MIAMI is 12-3 UNDER   in playoff games since 1992 with a combined average of 39.4 ppg scored. 

Under is 5-0 in Dolphins last 5 Wildcard games.

Under is 5-0 in Dolphins last 5 playoff games

BUFFALO is 10-2 UNDER  in home games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. with a combined average of 40.5 ppg scored.

NFL Road teams against the total (MIAMI) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight game are 50-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate. 

NFL team against the total (MIAMI) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% in the second half of the season are 47-19 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate.

Under is 7-3 in Bills last 10 vs. AFC.

Play UNDER 

  The 49ers opened the season 3-4 and trailed the Seahawks in the division race before running off 10 consecutive victories. The 49ers look like the right side, but after playing very hard physical ball for an extended period of time  they could easily hit a wall regress at the worst possible time. Something Im betting on here in this play off tilt. 

NFL Road underdogs or pick (SEATTLE) - off a win against a division rival, in January games are 28-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate.

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 9-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. 

Play on Seattle to cover

Despite of Green Bays big win vs Minnesota last week all was not perfect as they were out yarded in that tilt by a  346-315 deficit and have lost the stats battles in 6 of their L/7, so not all is good in Cheesville. Meanwhile, Detroit is 9-0 ATS L/9 division tilts, and need a win to make the play offs and some added luck of Seattle losing. The Lions will be motivated and their recent history against division tilts has me on the take this Sunday. 

DETROIT is 9-2 ATS  versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons

DETROIT is 7-0 ATS  versus sub par rushing defenses - allowing 4.5 or more  rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

DETROIT is 7-0 ATS  vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (DETROIT) - off a win against a division rival, in January games. are 27-6 L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL road teams (DETROIT) - excellent offensive team (370 or more  YPG) against a poor defense (335 to 370 YPG) after 8+ games, after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game are 25-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. 

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (GREEN BAY) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game are 15-41 ATS L/39 seasons for 71% conversion rate.

Play on the Detroit Lions 

I know Tampa Bay has some how found a way to make the play offs after garnering two straight wins but the coaching staff said they expect all their starters  to play this week as they try to continue to gain momentum in to the play offs because they have some issues that still need ironing out. Meanwhile, Atlanta has lost 4 straight games, and look like they are just going through the motions and dont really deserve respect as favs even at home. 

ATLANTA is 1-9 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

ATLANTA is 0-8 ATS  in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. 

NFL Road underdogs or pick (TAMPA BAY) - off a win against a division rival, in January games are 27-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. 

TAMPA BAY is 5-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons and 2-0 in their L/2 visits to Atlanta. 

Play on Tampa Bay to cover 

Cincinnati had their game suspended last time out because of a sudden heart attack of one of  their opponents players (Hamlin of the Buffalo Bills.)  It was a worrisome situation that Im betting is still playing the minds of the Bengals. Despite of this being the Bengals home finale Im betting Baltimore surging defensive play will keep them in this tilt for a cover. Note: Baltimore stoppers have allowed an average  of 292 yards per game over the L/2 plus months. The Ravens are also very competitive side as is evident by their   last six games being  decided by an average of just 4 ppg.  

CINCINNATI is 3-12 ATS L/15 versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 150 or more  rushing yards/game in the second half of the season . 

Harbaugh is 33-18 ATS  in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better as the coach of BALTIMORE

NFL Road teams (BALTIMORE) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 30-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Baltimore Ravens to cover 

After the collective trauma the Bills suffered last week when their team mate Hamlin suffered a cardiac arrest it wont  be a easy thing to get over . Needless to say  the lingering effects of that negative event could sway their mental cogdoscence this week making them vulnerable vs a  very hungry Pats team that is in desperation mode as they  need a victory here for a post season appearance.  The Pats also have the added incentive of revenge for a loss they suffered to the Bills earlier this season. 

NEW ENGLAND is 12-1 ATS  in road games revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points or more . (Buffalo beat the Pats 24-10 back in December) 

HC Bill Belichick in his last game of the season in his career with New England is 4-0 ATS as an underdog. 

NFL Road underdogs or pick (NEW ENGLAND) - off a win against a division rival, in January games are 27-6 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW ENGLAND) - after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games are 23-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BUFFALO) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 8-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on New England to cover 

Chicago looks to be just going though the motions and are playing ugly ball losing their L/5 games by DDs. Here today vs a angry Vikings side looking to rebound from a beating at Green Bay will be primed for a Bounce back  before the play offs start. Vikings are 46-22 ATS in their last 68 games following a straight up loss.

Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Bears are 7-22 ATS in their last 29 vs. NFC.Bears are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 vs. NFC North. Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

CHICAGO is 0-6 ATS  vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.CHICAGO is 1-8 ATS  vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover 

Jacksonville has really played well of late and are off a couple of convincing wins, and 4 straight overall However is must be noted that  JACKSONVILLE is 1-9 ATS L/10  after 2 straight wins by 14 or more points . With the AFC title at hand here, Im betting we see a grinding affair that will not easily be won by either side making getting points the strongest option here tonight. Tennessee has won their L/2 visits to Jacksonville. 

Titans are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.

Jaguars are 3-8 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

NFL road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TENNESSEE) - after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games are 23-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate. 

Play on Tennessee to cover 

The Chiefs main concern this week is staying healthy for the play offs while Vegas who have been competitive for most of this season, will be primed to pull. off an upset. Considering the Raiders QB  Jarrett Stidham carved up one of the best defenses in the NFL last week in a 37-34 loss vs SF Im betting we have what Im betting is a live dog to back . 

Chiefs are 2-13-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.Chiefs are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.Chiefs are 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win.Chiefs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC West.Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.

 CITY is 0-6 ATS as a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points over the last 3 seasons.KANSAS CITY is 1-10 ATS  against conference opponents this season.

McDaniels is 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record as the coach of LAS VEGAS.

Play on Raiders to cover

Pittsburgh is 6-2 when when JJ Watts their  outside linebacker plays and Im betting he will ignite this Steelers team again vs a Baltimore side that clinched a play of spot last week and could easily find themselves in a emotional let down spot vs a hard working group that believe it or not still have a chance at a play off spot. The Steelers have been victorious in four of their last five trips to the gridiron  with their only loss coming by two points against these same Ravens back in  Week 14.

BALTIMORE is 7-18 ATS   L/25 in home games after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight game. 

Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU L/5 vs Baltimore and 2-0 L/2 here in Baltimore. 

NFL Home favorites (BALTIMORE) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 or less turnovers/game committed), after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 19-43 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Pittsburgh to cover 

The Packers enter Week 17 on a three-game winning streak, and Im betting they make 4 in row here today behind the streakiest  QB  I ever seen (Aaron Rodgers)  . Minnesotas inability to protect their own QB (Cousins) will be key here, as they have allowed 11 sacks in their in their L/2 games. 

Rogers is 32-7-1 SU and 28-12 ATS at home in division games in his NFL career  and has cashed all 4 of his opportunities this season . 

Play on Green Bay Packers to cover 

Seahawks are struggling and have lost 3 straight and   off two  losses as pups but the good news comes via their  10-0 ATS mark  as hosts when coming off consecutive underdog losses. Also  Pete Carroll,  is 8-1 SU   at home in January, including 4-0 SUATS with a sub .500 record . Carroll is 20-9 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of SEATTLE.

The Seahawks go against a NY Jets that has gotten worse as the season has gone on, and no matter who starts at QB for them Wilson or White they just dont look cohesive as is evident by a 4 straight losses, and a overall offense that produces just 19.8 ppg on the road this season they continue to be fade material. 

NY JETS are 4-16 ATS   in road games versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 or more  rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season.

Play on Seattle to cover 

 Jacksonville has been playing well of late ,but being this big a fav on the road is not something I would support considering the Jags have failed to cover 5 of their L/7 as road favs. Meanwhile, the Texans come here looking confident after a upset win last week vs Tennessee for their third straight cover . 

Jacksonville Jaguars are 0-11 SU   against opposition coming off a SU underdog win. JACKSONVILLE is 0-6 ATS  as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

 HOUSTON is 5-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons and is 2-0 SU here at home. 

NFL Favorites (JACKSONVILLE) - after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 20-50 ATS L/39 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Houston Texans to cover 

The Colts have now had two straight 33-point meltdowns: one last week when Minnesota overcame a 33-point halftime deficit to defeat Indianapolis in a spectacular comeback victory the other when they were outscored 33-0 in in the final quarter a tight game at Dallas the week before . Needless to say this is a red faced group that will play this game with nothing to lose making them a dangerous foe. INDIANAPOLIS is 18-6 ATS L/24 as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points .

INDIANAPOLIS is 13-3 ATS  vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. over the last 3 seasons.

NFLHome underdogs or pick (INDIANAPOLIS) - after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season are 60-27 L/39 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Colts to cover

Tampa Bay is not a championship calibre team and they proved it last week by blowing a 17 point lead to the Bengals and then making blunder after blunder. in a ugly DD loss. Not even the great Tom Brady has looked all that good, as father time remains undefeated and has  slowed the future HOF down considerably. On the flip-side, Arizona has nothing to play for , but beating the Bucs would help many on this team sleep better. With that said, TB still in play off position, but still not the kind of team you want to back as a TD or more road fav as they are just 1-8 ATS L/9 as chalk and have failed to cash 6 of their L/7 vs NFC West  opposition. Add to that the Cards are 4-0 ATS L/4 in this series and 9-1 ATS L/10 as 2 point or more home pups. 

AMPA BAY is 1-7 ATS  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. this season. TAMPA BAY is 1-7 ATS  vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season. TAMPA BAY is 1-10 ATS  in games played on a grass field this season.

ARIZONA is 8-0 ATS  against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. 

 Kingsbury is 6-0 ATS versus poor rushing teams - averaging 90 or less  rushing yards/game as the coach of ARIZONA. Kingsbury is 10-1 ATS  against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season as the coach of ARIZONA.

NFL Favorites (TAMPA BAY) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers are 16-50 ATS L/10 seasons for a 76% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Arizona to cover 

 Kansas City clinched  the AFC West last week, and could easily find themselves in a letdown spot here this week vs a  Seattle side Im sure they are overlooking. As the season winds down the Chiefs could start to rest some of their walking wounded  more often and with Seattle still with an outside chance to make the playoffs I expect Pete Carrolls Seahawks  will play hard here  and get us the cover. . 

Reid is 0-8 ATS in home games after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse in all games he has coached since 1992.

Carroll is 19-6 ATS  in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points as the coach of SEATTLE.

KANSAS CITY is 4-21 ATS  after gaining 6 or more yards/play in 4 consecutive games since 1992.

KANSAS CITY is 1-9 ATS  after scoring 30 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 3 season

Carroll is 19-4 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses as the coach of SEATTLE

Carroll is 12-2 ATS in road games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/att. as the coach of SEATTLE

Reid is 2-9 ATS in home games after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs as the coach of KANSAS CITY

NFL Favorites (KANSAS CITY) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 18-60 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% go against conversion rate.

Seahawks to cover 

Cleveland has Watkins back under center-  Browns are 2-1 since Watson returned. He completed 18 of 28 passes for 161 yards in a 13-3 victory against Baltimore in his home debut in nasty conditions last Saturday. With this Saturday includes a 48 percent chance of snow, winds gusting beyond 30 mph and a high temperature of 13 degrees before factoring wind chill its going to be a ugly weather situation one that does not favor the dome side New Orleans.

Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win which was the case last time out. 

Browns are 3-0 ATS L/3 in this series and 8-1 L/9 vs AFC South opposition. 

Browns are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games.

NEW ORLEANS is 0-6 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. NEW ORLEANS is 9-24 ATS against AFC North division opponents since 1992. NEW ORLEANS is 0-6 ATS  after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons. NEW ORLEANS is 0-6 ATS ( after playing a game at home this season.

NFL Underdogs vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - after going under the total by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season are 1-26 L/5 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at -11.3 which qualifies on this ATS offering. 

NFL team vs the money line (CLEVELAND) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season are 38-9 L/5 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +8.2 which qualifies on this ATS offering. 

Play on Browns to cover 

Last week the Vikings garnered a huge come from behind win scoring 33 points to outlast the Indianapolis Colts by a 39-36 count. That clinched their division and play off birth and now Im betting they are in a huge emotional letdown situation that could easily effect them here today vs a hungry NY Giants side. It must also be noted that Vikings have been out yarded in 5 of their L/6 trips to the gridiron and have been involved in 10 one score games this season. I know the Gmen may not inspire us, but they have cashed 7 of 9 as dogs, under HC Dabol and are viable investment options in this spot play. .

Vikings are 1-6 ATS L/7 vs NFC East opposition. 

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MINNESOTA) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 7-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% go against conversion rate. 

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MINNESOTA) - good offensive team - scoring 24 or more points/game, after a win by 3 or less points are 16-37 L/10 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Giants to cover

 These teams the Chiefs and Seahawks  have played scorched earth all out  offensive slugfests in recent meetings going  5-0 OVER in the last 5 matchups with a combined  average score  of 62.6  ppg going on the scoreboard. With that said, Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here this week, as the leagues most explosive offense lead by QB Mahomes takes on the  2nd worst road defense in the league this season as the Seahawks allow 56.7 ppg away from home. Im betting on the Chiefs doing some damage here offensively  (projection of 28+ points) and for the Seahawks to be in all chase mode, which will help us see a combined score that eclipses this offering.KANSAS CITY is 7-0 OVER  when they score 28 or more points this season with a combined average 52.2 ppg scored. SEATTLE is 12-1 OVER when they allow 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 68 ppg scored. Im also projecting Seattle to score 20+ points-SEATTLE is 8-0 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points this season with a combined average of 63 ppg scored.  

Play on the OVER 

 New England lost a strange game last week, brain farts galore by some players best describes it. I wont get into it here, but it was embarrassing. Pros do not like to be embarrassed and coach Bellichick Im sure will have his team ready for redemption  against a red hot Bengals side that is on a 6-0 run.

Patriots are  6-1  ATS L7 in this series . and 4-1-1 L/6 vs AFC North opposition. NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 straight up against CINCINNATI since 1992. 

Patriots HC Bill Belichick is 14-0 ATS as a non-division dog coming off a loss with New England.

NEW ENGLAND is 26-12 ATS  as a home underdog since 1992.

Play on Patriots to cover 

The Jags are finally playing top brand of football behind  ,QB Trevor Lawrence  who now leads the NFL in passer rating (111.2) and completion percentage,  (14 TDs, 1 int)   going back to Week 9 . Tonight he will be challenged by a top tier D, but probably wont have to worry about going back and forth as the Jets offense is extremely atrocious. With the Jags still in the race for play off spot Im betting they get the job done with an all out effort and more importantly as far as we are concerned get the cover. 

Jaguars are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC. Jaguars are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

Jets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.

Play on Jacksonville Jags to cover

QB Baker Mayfield made his return to the gridiron last week and lead the defending champs  to a  17-16 victory over the Raiders.  However, this Monday in the cold the tundra of historic  Lambeau Field  Im betting he freezes up and for the continually banged up Rams to falter.. Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win. Rams are also just  1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

It must be noted that the Green Bay Packers are 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS in this series since 2007 . Also QB Aaron Rodgers is 23-12-3 ATS in his career against NFC West opponents  and   when he is  coming off a Bye week is 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS at home in his career . 

GREEN BAY is 8-1 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons and they get the nod again tonight on MNF. 

Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Green Bay.

Rams are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 meetings.

Favorite is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings.

Play on Green Packers to cover

Tom Brady has a big chip on his shoulder right now after a bad game against the SF 49ers last time out.   It  was embarrassing as it was   third-worst loss in Brady’s NFL career.   But now with a week of rest (bye week) you can bet the GOAT will be out looking hard for redemption. I know the Bengals have won and covered 5 straight, but looking maybe a little bit to over confident.  note:  Brady  11-1 ATS in  career as a home underdog and 10-0 SU/ATS off a loss of more than 7 points. Advantage Brady and company. 

NFL Underdogs or pick (TAMPA BAY) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/game committed) against a team with 1.25 or less TO/game forced, after 3 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers. are 38-13 ATS L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate.

Play on Tampa Bay Bucs to cover 

Chargers are in a good mood after an upset, of the Dolphins last week. But now after that emotional win will be in a letdown mode and vulnerable to a down effort vs a side that is having some problems and now with a new HC.  Note:NFL .500 or greater NFL sides like Tennessee that are 0-3 SUATS in its last three games versus an opponent that is coming off a SU/ATS win are 8-1 SU and 16-3 ATS taking on a side  off a SU underdog win.  We also  know the Titans are a run first team , and here against the worst run D, in the league allowing an average of 5.4 rpc , trouble in brewing for the favs. Titans are 6-1 ATS L/7 vs West.LA CHARGERS are 1-8 ATS  after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs over the last 3 seasons

LA CHARGERS are 21-39 ATS L/60 in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. 

TENNESSEE is 6-0 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Tennessee to cover 

There was a time earlier this season when I gave hope for Jaguars’ QB Trevor Lawrence,. but now my hopimism has turned positive  as is evident by his 111.7 passer rating over his L/3 outings.  I know he goes against a red hot Dallas side, but this Jags teams looks to have come to life and will highly motivated to steal a win here and more importantly as far as we are concerned get us the cover. In the only game here against Dallas in the history of the Jags, they are 1-0 SU/ATS. 

NFL Home teams (JACKSONVILLE) - in non-conference games, off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival are 31-9 L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Jacksonville to cover 

My projections estimate both sides will eclipse the 20 point plateau giving us strong value with an over wager . Note: PITTSBURGH is 14-1 OVER  when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 57.7 ppg scored. CAROLINA is 8-0 OVE when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 57.8 ppg scored.

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (PITTSBURGH) - off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival, after the first month of the season are 22-3 OVER L/10 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team against the total (CAROLINA) - off a upset win as an underdog against opponent off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival are 50-21 OVER L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

The L/6 meetings in this series have seen both teams combined to average 48.8 ppg. 

Play on the over 

My power ranking suggest Detroit is the better side and currently in better form. than their opponents the NY Jets. The Lions are 6-0 SU L/6 overall while the NYJ have 4 of their L/6 and have overall shown long droughts of not being able to put points on the board averaging just 20.3 ppg  on the season. Advantage Lions. 

DETROIT is 6-0 ATS  when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 season,DETROIT is 12-1 ATS  vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

NFL Underdogs vs. the money line (NY JETS) - after going under the total by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season are 1-26 L/5 seasons for a 96% conversion rate. 

Play on Detroit to cover

The young men from Florida wont get much of welcome in the cold climate of Northern NY state this Saturday night against a revenge minded Bills who have redemption in mind for a loss they suffered in Miami earlier this season. I know the Bills already took a 16 point deficit win in the first revenge go around, but believe  me , teams like this double down this time of year and really come out to play. With this being the Dolphins 3rd straight road Im betting their a bit exhausted . Note: The Fins are 1-6 ATS L/7 in their 3rd game on the road. 

MIAMI is 4-13 ATS in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  75% or better) in the second half of the season. 

BUFFALO is 19-5 ATS  in home games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game in the second half of the season. 

Play on Buffalo to cover 

The Colts have not looked good lately and got beat up badly last time out vs Dallas, losing 54-19 allowing 33 points in the last quarter wow. Combination of bad luck and just plain ugly football has them embarrassed and out looking for immediate redemption. Pros dont like to be embarrassed like that and you can bet they will play like their proverbial hair is on fire. 
Note: Indianapolis is 11-0 ATS run when playing off a double-digit loss, 

Colts are 7-0 ATS L/7 vs NFC North opposition. Considering how inconsistent the Vikings have been this year wont be surprised if they have a down game. 

INDIANAPOLIS is 12-3 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. over the last 3 season

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MINNESOTA) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 7-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate. 

Play on Indy to cover 

 QB  Brock Purdy, and his 134 passer rating were impressive last week to say the least in the 49ers DD win vs the visiting Tampa Bay Bucs .  Meanwhile Seattle was taken out by a play off hungry Panthers last week by a  30-24 count, and failed to cover for the 4th straight time.   Despite of the two opposite trajectories these teams are on, Im betting the old ball coach Pete Carroll has some magic he can deploy in desperation mode as the Seahawks still have play off hopes.  With Star Deebo Samuel out with a sprained ankle and MCL and a expected regression from media darling Purdy and a desperation effort from the home side should help as cash a underdog ticket. ,Seattle is 4-0 ATS at home off a home game, as well 9-2-1 ATS in Thursday nights while the 49ers have failed to cover in three straight Thursday prime time tilts.  

SAN FRANCISCO is 13-28 ATS L/41 in road games after allowing 9 points or less last game . 

SEATTLE is 41-18 ATS  versus good rushing teams - averaging 130  or more rushing yards/game in the second half of the season. . Carroll is 6-0 ATS   in home games after failing to cover the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games as the coach of SEATTLE. Carroll is 7-0 ATS in home games vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game in all games he has coached 

NFL Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SEATTLE) - after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 22-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. 

Play on Seattle to cover