New England  well rested after a bye week is one game ahead of the Jets  and currently sits as the  No. 8 seed in the AFC playoff race and come into tilt in need of wins to stay relevant for post season action, while the Cardinals are pretty much toast when it comes to making the play offs , unless they can string together wins here to finish of the season. Im betting both sides will be motivated, but the coaching edge , resides with Belichick  going against Kingsbury.  Arizonas coach   Kingsbury is just  5-15 ATS at home  when his side is s 2 point or less underdog. and his side is  0-3 SUATS the last three in Monday night prime time tilts .  Meanwhile,  Bill Belichick is 22-9 SU/ATS against NFC West opposition sides  in his NFL career,  and 13-0 SU if that team is coming off a loss like Arizona is.  Also the Pats despite of coming off a loss are a resilient bunch as is evident by their  6-0 ATS record off a home loss by 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons and are also  7-0 ATS  after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game over the last 3 seasons. 

Patriots are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a bye week. Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

ARIZONA is 3-12 ATS   in home games against AFC East division opponents.ARIZONA is 1-9 ATS)in home games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.. Cardinals are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games.

Pats are 4-0 SU/ATS L/4 visits to Arizona.

Play on New England Pats to cover 

49ers starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo went down with a season-ending foot injury last time out and now a backup QB will go to the field ie probably Purdy who took over from Jimmy last time . With Tom Brady and company out seeking revenge for a previous loss to SF Im betting the Bucks have edge . Brady is 19-4-1 ATS when his team is seeking revenge and his 24-6 overall ATS record when getting points. Considering San Francisco is just 1-7 ATS as non-division home favorite  of less than four points its an easy decision for me to back the future HOF  QB to come up big here as the Bucs make a run at post season action .  I know SF is ranked in No.1 in D, but Tampa Bay's defense is  also of the top tier variety  as the  Buccaneers rank eighth in the NFL in total defense (313.8), fifth in scoring defense (18.3) and fourth in sacks (38).

Tampa Bay to cover 

Seattle had to come from behind and take a  late win vs the banged-up  Rams in Week 13. Seattle is getting far to much respect from the lines-makers this week, despite of playing a sub par side. We have to remember  Carolina (4-8),  and are off a bye week so their well rested and believe it or or not sill in a playoff position in the slumping NFC South. With that said the Panthers still have plenty to play  as they are  only two games out of first place.

Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Meanwhile, Seahawks are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up win.

Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

SEATTLE is 0-6 ATS  after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Home teams (SEATTLE) - excellent passing team (7.3 or less PYA) against an average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA), after gaining 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 9-32 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Carolina Panthers to cover 

Denver just cant put points on the board, consistently especially with Wilson under center. Note: Wilson’s 83.5 Passer Rating ranks No. 29th  of all starting quarterbacks during this campaign. I know the Chiefs pass D is sometimes porous , but DENVER is just  8-1 UNDER  vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season with a combined average of 32.4 ppg scored. Meanwhile, we know the Chiefs can pile up points but it must also be noted that Denvers D is a solid group,  as as a result of this are  9-2 UNDER  vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 36.3 ppg scored.

Under is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 vs. AFC.

NFL road favs off a road chalk defeat in their last game like the Chiefs  have gone under in their following game in  all 6 times this has happened this season. 

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (KANSAS CITY) - excellent passing team ( 7.3  or more PYA) against an average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games are 25-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

DENVER is 9-0 UNDER in games played on a natural surface field this season and 11-1 under on the season. Under is 22-7 in Broncos last 29 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Play UNDER

Both teams were blown out last week, but one of these teams is more motivated than the other as ,  Jacksonville (4-8) has one shot to get it self into contention for post season action. It either wins this week or it will miss the playoffs for the fifth straight year since advancing to the AFC finals in 2017, when it held a fourth-quarter lead before losing in New England. Motivational factors support taking the points here with the Jags. 

Pederson is 14-3 ATS  versus good rushing defenses - allowing 90 or less rushing yards/game in all games he has coached since 1992.

TENNESSEE is 8-20 ATS L/28 vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game in the second half of the season.  TENNESSEE is 9-22 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight game

NFL Favorites of -160 to -475 vs. the money line (TENNESSEE) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 8-17 L/10 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Jacksonville to cover 

This total according to my projections is a bit high and we have an edge with an under wager here this Thursday night. I know the Raiders have been rolling but HC Jacobs is dealing with some injuries that may slow that roll . On the flip-side the Rams are decimated offensively as the injuries  are sky high, and Im betting they wont be able to take advantage of below average Raiders D. Note: Raiders rank 23rd in situation-neutral pace and Rams rank 28th.

Game 13 teams like the Rams  with a win %   of .250 or less, when the  Totals offering is 42 or more have gone under in   21 of the L/24 times for a 88% conversion rate dating back 9 seasons. 

LA RAMS are 8-1 UNDER against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 38.5 ppg scored. LA RAMS are 7-0 UNDER in home games off a division game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of  33.8 ppg scored. 

LA RAMS are 6-0 UNDER  in home games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 40.5 ppg. 

Raiders have gone under in 4 of their L/5 non division road games as favs. 

Rams have gone under in their 3 Thursday night tilts,   

NFL Road teams against the total (LAS VEGAS) - excellent rushing team - averaging 5 or more rushing yards/carry, after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 29-10 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate.

Play UNDER

The Cowboys are running hot, but Im going to take a contrarian stance here tonight and back Indianapolis to cover the line. I know the Colts disappointed last week in a loss as favorites but they have proven resilient in the past off that type of loss winning 11 of their L/13 opportunities for redemption. NDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 ATS  in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return over the last 3 seasons. INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 ATS   in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more  yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. INDIANAPOLIS is 8-1 ATS  in road games versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons.

DALLAS is 0-6 ATS in home games after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.

Dallas’ owns a sub par  9-17 SU and 7-17-2 ATS record against non-division opposition in prime time Sunday Night affairs. 

The Cowboys own a 0-5 ATS record as  chalk of more than 7 points when coming off a Thanksgiving day game .  Meanwhile, the The Colts  owns a powerful  8-1 ATS records  before their Bye week, which is up next a are 7-1 ATS   in non-conference road tilts . 

Play on Indianapolis Colts to cover

The Chiefs have big time revenge on board for their AFC championship game loss  last season,  to this Cincinnati side.  Im betting they get their redemption  behind the arm and legs of super star QB Patrick Mahomes who is  26-0 in his last 26 starts in November and December. 

 Play on KC Chiefs to cover 

I know the defending Super Bowl champions the LA Rams are banged up and not in top form , but this is just to many points for the Seahawks to cover in my humble opinion on the road , giving us value with the undervalued  home underdog. SEATTLE is 0-6 ATS in road games off a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons. Carroll is 18-33 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less in all games he has coached since 1992. 

Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 13.

Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in December.

NFL Favorites (SEATTLE) - good rushing team - averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry, after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game are just 67-119 ATS L/39 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Rams to cover 

 The Jets have pivoted from  QB Zach Wilson to Mike White and Im betting that will be a beneficial move . The Jets right now if the season ended would be in the play offs and are very motivated to get some upward momentum.  It must be noted in two career starts, White owns passer ratings of 149.3  and 101.1 in his first and only other start  last season.  Interestingly enough the Jets had eclipsed the  30 point -plateau  and 450 Total Yards in the last four seasons just 3 times and guess who was the starting QB  in those games, you got it - White. So this week against a Vikings side that has lost the stats battles in 3 straight games, the Jets must not be underestimated in this ability to cash a ticket for us. 

NY JETS are 6-0 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse this season.NY JETS are 6-0 ATS  vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game over the last 2 seasons.

NFL Underdogs or pick (NY JETS) - after a game where they committed no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 26-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

NFLHome favorites (MINNESOTA) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 or less turnovers/game committed), after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 16-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

NY Jets to cover

 BUFFALO is 6-0 UNDER  as a road favorite this season with a combined average of 43 ppg scored. But with this prime time game registering like a play off affair Im betting on an even lower combined score in what Im betting will be a grinding affair. 

New England's consistency on offense is something that aids us tonight with this wager.  They do not rank in the top half of the league in any statistical category. The Pats had some production  last week vs the  Vikings defense that ranks 31st in the league and dead last against the pass. But that wont be the case here vs a Buffalo D, that despite of inconsistencies is ready and capable of standing tall here tonight. Yes, last weeks Buffalos D failed it, but they will be primed for a complete game bounce back. Last week, Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson used a lot of pre-snap motion and formations to generate one-on-one matchups, but the Pats are not capable of this with this current group . 

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (BUFFALO) - versus division opponents, off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite are 27-5 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate with the average combined score clicking in at 37.3 ppg going on the board. 

NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NEW ENGLAND) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games in the second half of the season are 61-24 UNDER L/39 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 41.6 ppg.

Play UNDER

Pittsburgh is being under rated here in this matchup vs the Colts especially with JJ watts in the lineup. His energy permeates through this team and gives them an extra charge.  The Steelers are  8-0-1 ATS in the last nine matchups  versus AFC South opponents, while the Colts  are just 1-6 ATS L/7 vs AFC North opponents.

The  Steelers are 16-2 SU L/18 in this series, including 2-0 SUATS as a pup. I know the Colts have played better of late, but this team is still in disarray and fade material in my humble betting opinion. 

Pittsburgh 8-1 ATS L/ 9 MNF vs division opposition

Play Pittsburgh to cover . 

The Eagles had to get down and dirty in a come from behind  in the 4th quarter last week to garner a  17-16 win vs Indianapolis and will now be in an unfortunate emotional letdown situation vs a very hungry Green Bay side. I know the Packers fell flat on their faces last week losing as favs , but it must be noted that  QB Aaron Rodgers is 10-1 SU/ATS as a pup when the Packers are coming off a SU favorite loss. Rodgers is a very streaky QB, and dont be surprised if he finishes this season on fire, starting tonight in Philly on national TV. 

It must also be noted that Philly has lost the stats wars in 3 of their L/6 games and are being over rated by the pundits in my humble betting opinion. 

PHILADELPHIA is 14-31 ATS  in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

NFL Underdogs or pick (GREEN BAY) - after a game where they committed no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 26-4 L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

NFLHome favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PHILADELPHIA) - hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 5-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Green Bay Packers to cover

The 49ers offense is multi dimensional with McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell at running back, receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, and  tight end George Kittle. Im betting this group. matches up well for the Saints D, and does some damage . On the flispide Andy Dolton and the Saints despite of some inconsistencies put 27 points on the Rams last week in a victory and should not be underestimated in their ability to do have decent output vs. a strong SF D. Note:The Saints stand 8th in the league in passing offense with 237.5 yards per game and Im betting the 49ers will force them to bomb away as SF goes above their expected offensive output average. 

NFC WEST home teams like the 49ers  vs any NFC SOUTH opponent like New Orleans , when the Total offering is  43  or more points are  10-1 OVER L/4 seasons. 

New Orleans and the SF 49ers have gone over  9 straight times here in California  with a combined  average of 52.5 ppg going on the board!

Over is 4-0 in Saints last 4 vs. NFC.

Play OVER

The Jets averaged 2.1 yards per play in last Sundays defeat at the hands of the New England Pats and don't deserve this much respect based on having a overall strong D. QB Wilson will not start this week, but any back up pivot Im betting wont fair much better . Yes, I do know QB Justin Fields is not 100% but his legs are dangerous offensive weapons and if he does not play pounding the ball on the ground is not a foreign concept of moving the ball for the Bears giving them an advantage in this type of matchup. 

NY JETS are 19-34 ATS  off a road loss against a division rival since 1992. NY JETS are 22-38 ATS in home games in non-conference games since 1992.

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NY JETS) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game are 13-40 ATS L/39 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate. 

CHICAGO is 6-1 against the spread versus NY JETS since 1992 and have covered their L/3 visits to NYJ. 

Chicago is 4-0 ATS L/4 vs AFC East opposition.

Play on the Chicago Bears to cover 

Wow it was a crazy week for both these sides last time out on the gridiron. The 8-2 Vikings took their worst home loss since 1963 and the Pats after looking asleep at the wheel  for most of their game vs the Jets took a walk off win with a punt return for the length of the field. Now Im betting on a complete reversal of sorts as a huge redemption minded bounce back for the Vikes is in play and for karma to instantly strike back at the Pats vs an embarrassed side looking to gain back some self respect. Im betting on Minnesota to make it 5-0 SU/ATS L/5 Thanksgiving days games.

MINNESOTA is 12-2 ATS  in home games after a loss by 21 or more points since 1992.

Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover 

The Giants were torched for 31 points last time out vs Detroit in a loss and now Im betting will be more focused and prepared to try to pair up their defense, by trying to slow this game down to a grind by using their running game , especially knowing they will be playing an explosive Dallas offense. Meanwhile, Dallas behind a strong D, allowing just 16.2 ppg at home this season will once again be hard to score on. This above mentioned combo Im betting will lead to a lower scoring affair that fails to eclipse this total.

NY GIANTS are 7-0 UNDER  after allowing 30 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 31.5 ppg scored. NY GIANTS are 9-1 UNDER  off 1 or more straight overs over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.8 ppg scored. 

NY GIANTS are 23-8 UNDER  vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.3 ppg scored. NY GIANTS are 7-0 UNDER revenging a close loss by 7 points or less to opponent over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 35.8 ppg scored. NY GIANTS are 21-8 UNDER  in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.8 ppg scored. 

Under is 6-0-1 in Giants last 7 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.Under is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 7-0 in Giants last 7 games in Week 12.Under is 8-1 in Giants last 9 games in November.Under is 20-5-2 in Giants last 27 games on fieldturf.Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 road games.Under is 21-6-1 in Giants last 28 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Under is 15-5-1 in Giants last 21 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 15-5-1 in Giants last 21 games following a double-digit loss at home.Under is 9-3-2 in Giants last 14 vs. NFC.Under is 3-1-1 in Giants last 5 vs. NFC East.Under is 18-7-1 in Giants last 26 games following a ATS loss.Under is 18-7-1 in Giants last 26 games following a straight up loss.Under is 33-16-2 in Giants last 51 games overall.

DALLAS is 9-2 UNDER  versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more  yards/play over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 43.3 ppg scored.

Under is 7-1 in Cowboys last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.Under is 6-1 in Cowboys last 7 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.Under is 6-1 in Cowboys last 7 home games.Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.Under is 13-3-1 in Cowboys last 17 games on fieldturf

NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DALLAS) - average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games are 61-28 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

Im sure the pundits and weekend warriors are expecting a passing duel when Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs go head to head with  Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers. However,  both these teams are most prob going to have key receivers out of the lineup this week and Im betting  that will hamper big downfield plays. Key here will be  the Chargers  inconsistent  offense this season behind a banged up QB Herbert’s who is still not 100% with a  rib injury, which happened in a Week 2 loss to the Chiefs. Throw in the WR issues and the Chargers could have problems with point production vs a under rated KC defense and fail to live up to offensive estimates from the lines-makers which makes for an inflated Total that is vulnerable to be taken advantage of from under bettors. 

Under is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 games in November.Under is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 vs. AFC.

LA CHARGERS are 29-12 UNDER (L/41 in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  75% or better ) with a combined average of 41.5 ppg scored.

LA CHARGERS are 25-12 UNDER L/37 in home games revenging a same season loss against opponent with a combined average of 39.6 ppg going on the board.

Under is 22-6 in Chargers last 28 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game

Game 15  or less  road chalk of  6 or more points with a Totals line of 49 or more   have gone under in 12 of the L/13 times dating back 3 seasons. 

NFL games in which the home team is an UNDERDOG have gone  16-42 UNDER overall and 0-6 UNDER when AFC team is the home dog .  

NFL Road teams against the total (KANSAS CITY) - excellent passing team (7.3 or more PYA) against an average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games. are 73-36 L/10 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 42.4 ppg going on the scoreboard.

NFL team against the total (LA CHARGERS) - excellent passing team (265 or more  PY/G) against a poor passing defense (230-265 PY/G) after 8+ games, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 30-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 42.2 ppg scored.

Play UNDER

Atlanta is 4-6 SU on the season, but even at that sub standard record is a aberration  as the Falcons have been out-yarded -82 in net YPG  ranking second worse in the NFL and are an ugly  1-9  in the stats battles this  campaign. Meanwhile, the Bears , despite of not being a top tier side, are dangerous behind the legs of  QB Justin Fields and a offensive system that starting to micmic cfb military school programs. That might be an exaggeration but you get the picture. Im saying the Bears matchup well here vs a obviously over rated opponent based on stats. 

Bears are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss which was the case last time out. 

Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

ATLANTA is 1-8 ATS  as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons.ATLANTA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Home teams (ATLANTA) - off a road loss, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%) are 24-61 ATS L/39 seasons for a go against  72% conversion rate. 

Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Play on Chicago Bears to cover 

NY Jets are playing over all proficient football and are  6-3 SUATS record, including 4-0 SUATS on the road and have an overall 5-1 SU record L/6 trips to the gridiron and obviously deserve respect as road dogs. I know New England carries a famous brand name but the Jets are a team on the rise and look very much like a viable side to back. Yes, I know the Pats are well rested, but that has not been a recipe for success for Bellichick and company going 1-10-1 ATS with rest. 

Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC East.

NY JETS are 37-21 ATS  in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 38 points since 1992.

Play on NY Jets to cover 

 Detroit rallied last week from a 24-10 deficit to pull off a 31-30 win, the franchise's first victory after trailing by 14 or more points entering the fourth quarter since 1993. Now with momentum on their sides the Lions enter with confidence and Im betting will be prepared to battle again this week vs the Giants. The Lions' offense has been very  efficient over the past three games, turning the ball over just once and must not be underestimated in the dog role.

Visitor is  10-2 ATS in this series .Detroit is  8-3 non-division road dogs of  6 points or less.

DETROIT is 6-0 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more yards/play in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.DETROIT is 17-5 ATS  after being out-gained by 75 or more total yards in 3 consecutive games.

Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in November.Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Lions are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 vs. NFC.

Campbell is 1-9 ATS  after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games in all games he has coached since 1992.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (DETROIT) - good offensive team - scoring 24 or more points/game, after a win by 3 or less points are 95-47 ATS L/39 seasons for a 67% conversion rate.

DETROIT is 5-1 against the spread versus NY GIANTS L/6 meetings.Road team is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings.

Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in New York.

Play on Lions to cover

Last week Aaron Rogers  and  the Packers looked rejuvenated with a OT win vs the Dallas Cowboys. The Packers have suffered through  an ugly start  to their season, and has possibly help resurrect themselves behind  rookie WR Christian Watson  who came to the fore front as he produced some much needed  forward momentum  as he scored three touchdowns including  8 receptions ( 107 ypg)  . Im betting on the Packers continuing to look downfield after last weeks successes and for a decent output vs a viable Titans D. However, on the flip-side the Packers D, has not been all that stable allowing 24, 27, 27, 23, 27, 28 points respectively 6 of their L/7 tilts.  With the Tennessee being a run heavy side, and the Packers rankings 28th against the run, my points projection out projections look ready to be proven right. Note: Star  RB Henry  has been sub par this season , but will have a field day vs a side that allows 4.8 yards per carry.Im betting the Titans hit those  above averages offensively and help get this game over the offered Total.   My projections point to both sides putting 20plus points on the board. Note: TENNESSEE is 16-1 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average  of 60.2 ppg scored.

GREEN BAY is 17-5 OVER  when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average 57.8 ppg scored in those 22 tilts. 

Vrabel is 8-1 OVER  in road games after having won 3 out of their last 4 games as the coach of TENNESSEE with a combined average of 51.9 ppg scored. TENNESSEE is 20-8 OVER  against NFC North division opponents since 1992 with a combined average of 51.3 ppg scored. Tennessee is  5-1 OVER L/6 vs NFC North and 8-3 OVER L/11 as non-conference road pups. 

LaFleur is 20-9 OVER  after playing a game at home as the coach of GREEN BAY with a combined average of 52.8 ppg scored. GREEN BAY is 8-1 OVER  when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 53.8 ppg scored. 

GB is 4-0 OVER off a win as an underdog and   3-0 OVER L3 vs Tennessee  with a combined average of 62.3 ppg scored and  7-0 OVER on  Thursdays vs non-division opposition and  11-2 OVER in the  2nd of back to back home games. 

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (GREEN BAY/TENNESSEE) - in non-conference games are 144-88 OVER L/10 seasons for a 62% conversion rate.

Play OVER

 My own number on this total is 47 thus prompting to back recommending  an over wager here.

Im betting  top tier QBs Jimmy Garoppolo and Justin Hebert take part in a back forth Sunday night event. 

LA  Chargers have cashed on the OVER in  10 of their L/11  non division games  when the Totals offering  is  51 points or less with the average combined score clicking in at 60.1 ppg.

Chargers are 4-0 OVER L/4 in back to back road games  and  7-1 OVER vs NFC West  and  12-4 OVER as division road dog of 3 points or more . 

SF is 6-1 OVER  off road dog victory and 5-1 OVER off division road win and .8-2 OVER at home after allowing 14 points or less . These teams have combined to average of 59.2 ppg in their L/4 meetings

Over is 10-4 in Chargers last 14 games overall.

LA CHARGERS are 19-8 OVER  vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 55.7 ppg scored.LA CHARGERS are 19-9 OVER  after the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 54.2 ppg scored. 

Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Play on the OVER 

 Rams were shocked last week as with 35 seconds left on the clock Tom Brady engineered a come from behind victory with a TD that shocked and emotionally smacked the Rams down a few notches. Now in a rebound mode Im betting the redemption minded Rams come out here with their proverbial hair on fire and take down the visiting Cardinals. ARIZONA is 0-6 ATS vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. ARIZONA is 2-11 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Kingsbury is 0-6 ATS after allowing 30 points or more in 2 straight games as the coach of ARIZONA.

NFL Underdogs vs. the money line (ARIZONA) - with a poor scoring defense - allowing 24 or more points/game, after allowing 30 points or more in 3 straight games are 3-33 L/5 seasons a  go against 92% conversion rate.

NFL Underdogs vs. the money line (ARIZONA) - poor team - outscored by opponents by 4 or more points/game, after allowing 30 points or more in 3 straight games are 2-29 L/5 seasons for 94% conversion rate.

Rams are 5-1 SU/ATS L/6 in this series.

Play on LA Rams to cover 

I respect how well the Giants have played this season overall but they have a long history of playing down to their opposition. It must be noted that the Gmen have failed to cover 12 of their L/16 vs sub .150 struggling sides like the Texans. Texans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 10.

Texans are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

NY GIANTS are 3-11 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. NY GIANTS are 8-19 L/27  ATS  in home games after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games . 

Giants are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.Giants are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

NFL Favorites (NY GIANTS) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (18-23 PPG), after a loss by 10 or more points are 8-29 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFLRoad underdogs or pick (HOUSTON) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/game committed) against a team with 1.25 or less TO/game forced are 60-29 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Play on Texans to cover 

According to my power rankings this game should be closer to a pickem even though the Bears have home field advantage thus giving us value with the road dog. DETROIT is 8-1 ATS  vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November.

Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC North.

CHICAGO is 0-6 ATS in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.CHICAGO is 5-13 ATS  against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC North.Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Bears are 0-3-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

NFL team (CHICAGO) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 4-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (DETROIT) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games are 36-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Play on the Detroit Lions to cover 

The  inconsistent Saints  played their most complete game of the season when they beat visiting Las Vegas 24-0 two weeks ago and despite of a loss last week are more than capable of a bounce back vs a Pittsburgh side they matchup well against. Not betting on another shut out, but against a  offense, which is averaging just 15 points per game and is tied for the fewest offensive touchdowns in the NFL (11) the Saints have a great opportunity for victory. 

NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS  in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Saints are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous gam

PITTSBURGH is 3-12 ATS L/15 against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse in the second half of the season . 

NFL Favorites vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - good rushing team (125 to 150 RY/game) against a poor rushing team (70-95 RY/game) after 8+ games, after allowing 175 or more rushing yards last game are 35-2 L/39 seasons for a 95% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Saints to cover 

Cleveland according to my power rankings despite of a sub .500 record is very under rated and deserve respect here as underdogs vs a Miami side that are ranked 15th in rushing yardage allowed per game this season. Look for Nick Chubb to do what other RBs have not done to the Dolphins and rush consistently and for more than 100 yards. Chubb is second only to Derrick Henry in rushing yards per game (105.1) and leads the league in rushing touchdowns, with 10. Chubb will be the difference maker . 

 Miami is 0-7 ATS  after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games since 1992. MIAMI is 6-21 ATS  in home games after a win by 3 or less points .MIAMI is 16-30 ATS in home games after a win by 6 or less points. 

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in November games are 3-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 90% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 9-37 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate.

NFL Road teams (CLEVELAND) - excellent offensive team (370 or more  YPG) against a poor defense (335 to 370 YPG) after 8+ games, after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game are 24-4 ATS L/26 seasons for a 86% conversion rate. 

Play on Cleveland to cover 

Jacksonville is improving as is evident by winning the stats battles in 5 of 9 games this season and off a SU win last week  and  are capable of competing  here vs a KC team in a letdown situation after  QB Patrick Mahomes passed for 446 yards last week. Im now bettong on regression from the KC QB and his team. Note: KANSAS CITY is 1-8 ATS after gaining 300 or more passing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. KANSAS CITY is 1-16 ATS L/17 after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games .  

Reid is 1-9 ATS in home games after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs as the coach of KANSAS CITY.

NFL favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS CITY) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, in November games are 3-26 L/5 seasons for a go against 90% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Jacksonville to cover 

Last time out future HOF  QB  Brady went on a , 60-yard drive with under 40 seconds left of last week’s victory vs the Rams and in doing so showed us you can never count him or his team out of any game.  I know the Buccaneers opponents today the Seahawks have won 4 straight, su and ATS but they are an over rated bunch in my humble opinion and the lines-makers look like they agree with my assessment. It must be noted Brady  is 3-0 SUATS in his NFL career in regular season games on neutral field and is now motivated to get his team back to .500. Look for the super star to be primed to perform on an international stage and to help his team to a win and cover over Pete Carroll and company. 

Buccaneers are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.Buccaneers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.

TAMPA BAY is 11-3 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TAMPA BAY) - after 3 or more consecutive losses including pushes  against the spread against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 34-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Tampa Bay to cover 

The Saints are off a top tier 24-0 effort last time out vs a very inconsistent Raiders team. However it must be noted that NFL teams off a shutout home win are just 1-4 ATS/SU  L/5 opportunities dating back 37 seasons. Also the Saints have proven themselves very inconsistent this season, losing 5 of 8 games. Allen is 3-12 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread in all games he has coached and is vulnerable to a letdown scenario here.

NEW ORLEANS is also just  9-22 ATS  L/31  against AFC North division opponents .

Harbaugh is 6-0 ATS  in road games against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse in the second half of the season as the coach of BALTIMORE.

Favorites vs. the money line (BALTIMORE) - team with a turnover diff. of +0.75/game or better against a team with a diff of -0.75/game or worse, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 31-3 L/10 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors.

New Orleans is 0-5 ATS under the Monday night lights of prime time action, 

Baltimore is 6-1-1 ATS on Monday night away tilts.

Play on Baltimore to win /cover

 .These two sides in head to head action have taken part in some high scoring tilts with the last five meetings going over the set total with a combined average of , 65.4 combined ppg registering on the scoreboard.  Im betting two hungry sides who need to get untracked go after each other from the get fo today and contribute to a higher scoring affair than the data might project. 

Note:  The Rams were off their Bye last Sunday before their defeat to the 49ers at home.  Despite of being well rested  the Rams lost .

NFL sides like the Rams have gone over 7 straight times when off a SU/ATS home chalk loss after their Bye Week.

Another interesting trend: Tampa  goes to Europe next week . Dating back 17 seasons, non-division NFC sides  before playing in a neutral  site tilt  like the Bucs will the total has been eclipsed ,  20 of 22 times , when the Total offering  is between 39 and 49.5 points . 

 Bowles is 12-2 OVER  in home games after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games in all games he has coached with a combined average of 54.5 ppg scored. McVay is 12-4 OVER  in road games off a division game as the coach of LA RAMS with a combined average of 52.8 ppg scored.

McVay is 12-4 OVER  as a road underdog as the coach of LA RAMS with a combined average of 55.5 ppg scored. 

TB is 5-0 L/5 vs NFC West.

Play OVER 

Future HOF QB Brady and the Buccaneers are no longer to be feared as is evident by their sub par play so far this season. Brady has averaged a substandard 6.7 yards per attempt and the offense is tied for 25th in third-down efficiency (34.6 percent). 

TAMPA BAY is 9-21 ATS  in home games vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game. TAMPA BAY is 0-6 ATS  in games played on a grass field this season. TAMPA BAY is 0-6 ATS   in games played on a grass field this season which was the case last time out. 

After a negative outing vs the SF 49ers last /Sunday the defending Super Bowl Champs will be in redemption and bounce back mode and are very dangerous. Sean McVay  is 10-5 ATS as a  road dog and  10-3 ATS and 9-4 ATS i vs NFC South opposition , including cashing and winning 3 straight as a dog. The  Rams’  also own a 8-1 ATS series record vs the Bucs and 3-0 SU/ATS L/3 visits to Tampa Bay. 

Small non-Division Away Pup (+5 or less points) if they lost their last game as a Home Dog/pk and scored 20 points or less are 24-2 ATS . Rams qualify.

NFL team vs the money line (TAMPA BAY) - poor rushing team - averaging 90 or less rushing yards/game, after being outrushed by 75 or more yards in 2 straight games are 28-6 L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Rams 

 The Buffalo D ranked 1st in the NFL is staunch to say the least allowing  an average of 14 ppg overall and have seen their 6 of  their 7 games  games stay under the total and all 4 of their home games with a combined average of 43.6 ppg go on the score board while allowing an average of 9.3 ppg. Meanwhile, the Jets defense ranked 6th in the league has allowed 19.5 ppg in division games and 13.7 ppg in their L/3 games overall with all going under the set total. 

AFC East division confrontations  have gone 4-21 UNDER  L/10 seasons and have gone under  16 of their L/18  dating back 5 season  when the Host side  is an underdog of +3.5 or more points .  

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (BUFFALO) - versus division opponents, off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite 23-4 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate with a combined average of 38 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

The Eagles defense (allowing 16.9 ppg)  ranks second in DVOA against the pass and in no way will the Texans game plan be based on play option, rather, Im betting  it will  focus on making this into a sleep fest with a slow deliberate ground attack. Note: Texans QB Mills  ranks  29th in EPA/play, 30th in ANY/A and 31st in yards per attempt in the league among starting QBs. Meanwhile, on the flip-side the Texans have been viable in their secondary, ranking 17th in DVOA vs the pass  , so the explosive Eagles run attack will be put into primary  action vs a porous Houston run D. What Im expecting here is for a run heavy game to take place, and for it to be grinding in nature which will aid us in my recommendation that we take an under stance here on this Totals offering. PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER  in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 38.9 ppg scored.

Under is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 road games.Under is 16-5 in Eagles last 21 games in November.

Under is 10-4 in Texans last 14 vs. a team with a winning record.

Thursday  night NFC sides  like Philly in away tilts vs AFC opp like Houston   have gone under 10 of  the L/12 times with the average combined ppg  averaging  35.6 .  Thursday non-division away sides  like the Eagles off 2 consecutive SU/ATS wins have gone under 8 straight times. Thursday night pups like the Texans  off a SU/ATS division loss  have gone under 7 straight times since the 2016 campaign.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (HOUSTON) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after gaining 4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 68-30 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

Oh how far the mighty have fallen. Biblical proportions have been attached to line and the perception of the public and the lines-makers ability to play into that concept. Right now Rodgers and company are no longer feared by their opponents and the betting public has abandoned them for their new darlings the Buffalo Bills. 
However with that said it must be noted QB Rodgers is 40-15 SU in his career in October, tilts including 8-1 ATS as a pup of 2 points or more. The inconsistent star seems to stand tall in these types of games , however, as is evident by his  5-0 SU /ATS mark in tilts he enters with a sub .500 record when going against top tier competition with a  .750 or better win percentage. When the chips are down Im betting the Packers find a way to be competitive in this nationally televised prime time event. 

NFL Favorites (BUFFALO) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 15-53 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  78% conversion rate.

Play on Green Bay to cover 

The defending Super Bowl Champs are not getting alot of respect here , probably based on  their  24-9 loss on the road in San Francisco  in early October. However, now in revenge mode, Im betting on this sleepy looking Rams side to come out their coma here with a top tier effort.

McVay is 10-2 ATS  after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of LA RAMS.

NFL Underdogs or pick (LA RAMS) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 49-15 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Favorites (SAN FRANCISCO) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (18-23 PPG), after a loss by 10 or more points are 7-29 L/10 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home teams vs. the money line (LA RAMS) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off a home blowout loss by 21 points or more are 24-1 L/39 seasons for a 96% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on LA Rams to cover 

Atlantas positive ATS record according to my data is skewed in comparison to the the fact they have been out-gained in each of their last six trips to the gridiron. Thats not a good omen for a team that has failed to cover 11 of their L/15 as home favs. ATLANTA is 3-11 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons and despite of Carolina not having a solid record still beat TB last week and were gritty in a loss to the Rams in their previous game. Carolina has won their last two visits here and don't be surprised if a rinse and repeat situation rears it ugly head in this spot play.

NFL  Road underdogs or pick (CAROLINA) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games are 35-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Home favorites (ATLANTA) - after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 10-35 ATS 39 seasons for a 78% go against conversion rate. 

Take the points with Carolina to cover 

These teams secondaries look weak at best. The Vikings  rank 28th in passing defense giving up an average 272 ypg  while Cardinals   rank 25th in give up an average of /260 ypg . With two more than capable QBs playing today  (Murray vs Cousins) Im expecting a wide open down field affair with plenty of points going on the board. 

The Vikings are on fresh legs off a bye which sets up well for a all out attack. Note: NFC home favorites after their Bye Week going against another NFC opponent like the Cards  when the Totals offering is 51 or less points have gone over 20 of the L/22 dating back to the 2016 season.

 NFL sides with a .800  record or better as home favs of 6 points or less like the Vikings  going against a less than .500 side like  the Cards , when the Totals  offering comes in at between 45 to 54 points has gone over 14 straight times dating back to the 2014 campaign. 

 Minnesota has gone over the total in 15 of their L/20 home tilts including going over in 9 of 10 with a 49 or more totals offering from the books. 

The L/3 meetings in this series have seen a combined average of 55 ppg go on the board. 

Play on the OVER

Is Tom Brady finally starting to show his age?  Well to an extent he has been for a while, but even at 75% of where he was the future HOF QB is still better than most QBs in this league and deserves respect .  The Bucs lost last week and look lost in the process , but after all the negative press are ready to reap redemption on a national stage this Thursday night. .  Lets look at what Brady bring to the table in a situation like this.... He is  10-0 SU/ATS in his NFL career with a sub .500 record  and coming off a SU defeat . While the Ravens are 0-3-1 ATS L/4 overall and  0-5-1 ATS  in Thursday night road game . Until Tommy shows me he is toast Im betting he will be the difference maker here today and motivating factor behind a Bucs rebound.Ravens are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Buccaneers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.Buccaneers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Play on Tampa Bay to cover 

 The Bears 5-1 ATS in their last six Monday Night road games have finally figured out that any success they will have this season wont come on the back of QB Justin Fields. Thus Im expecting a continued run heavy attack from the Bears and for their staunch defense to stand tall. Note: The Bears rushing attack has big-play potential, ranking second in rush yards per game (170) and seventh in rushing average (5.2 yards per rush).With that said  I will  back them getting more than a TD on the road here in this prime time event . 

NFL Home teams (NEW ENGLAND) - excellent passing team (7.3  or more PY/Att.) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PY/Att.), after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 9-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate.

Play on Bears to cover

KC QB Mahomes is in bounce back and redemption mode this week after throwing a late interception last week and falling short vs Josh Allan and Buffalo . The top tier QB is still high in the  NFL  QB standing with a passer rating of at least 100 and is tied for the league lead with 17 touchdown passes and capable of a big effort . Considering the 49ers are banged up on both offense and defense  they are in trouble. The Niners also have alot of walking wounded who if they play are less than 100% i.e( Left tackle Trent Williams and defensive end Nick Bosa ) Advantage Chiefs. 

49ers are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games in Week 7.

Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

NFL Underdogs -SU (SAN FRANCISCO) - after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game against opponent after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 3 straight games are 1-25 L/5 seasons with the average ppg diff  clicking in at -12.3 which easily qualifies on this ATS line offering. 

Play on Kansas City to cover 

Chiefs QB Mahomes and company are explosive offensively but they go against a SF side that are  allowing  just  255 yards per game  and 14.9 ppg which gives them the No.1 rank in the league defensively. Meanwhile the 49ers Im betting will also want to keep Mahomes off the field as much as possible and grind away with their ground game in effort to slow this game down to a grinding affair . All in all I expect this tilt to be lower scoring than the lines-makers and pundits expect. 

SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 UNDER  vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing  24 or more yards per return over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 36.8 ppg scored. SF is 2-12 UNDER L/14 dating back to last season. Under is 6-0 in 49ers last 6 games following a straight up loss which was the case last time out. 

NFL Home teams against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite are 27-3 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate with combined average of 40.4 ppg game.

Play UNDER 

I know the Jets D, has played well lately while the Broncos offense has struggled, but Im betting that Denvers  QB Wilson finally gets rolling this week, and that the Jets offense continues to uptrend. 

NYJ are 8-1 OVER  vs opposition  off Monday night  tilt like Denver. 

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (DENVER) - off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival, after the first month of the season are 22-2 OVER L/10 seasons with a combined average of 50.5 ppg scored. 

NFL team against the total (NY JETS) - off a upset win as an underdog against opponent off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival are 49-19 OVER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate! 

Play on the OVER 

Giants Im betting will  continue their  upward momentum  on Sunday when they face the host Jacksonville Jaguars.  The lines-makers expect this to be a close game, but the Giants have shown grit and propensity, as is evident by winning five of the 6 one-score tilts and a rinse and repeat situation is at hand again this Sunday. Yes, I know  Jags QB Trevor Lawrence had a big game last week, maybe the best of his career, but his team still found a way to lose to a Indy team they have dominated in the recent past . Letdown is in order here for Jags as is continued success for Big Blue.  

NY GIANTS are 9-1 ATS in road games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

JACKSONVILLE is 0-7 ATS   in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.  

The Jaguars 0-18 SU  in their last eighteen games against NFC opposition.

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (JACKSONVILLE) - after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points, in October games are 8-24 L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (NY GIANTS) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 36-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on NY Giants to cover 

 QB Wilson has not performed well for the Broncos since coming over from Seattle but he is  15-2-1 ATS in his  career  as an underdog vs opposition  coming off consecutive victories  like the Chargers , including a stellar  8-0 ATS mark in division games under those parameters. Look for the QB to finally get things going this week, and for a solid Denver D, to give the Chargers all they can handle in this Monday night spot play. 

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA CHARGERS) - good offensive team - scoring 24 or more points/game, after a win by 3 or less points are 12-36 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Underdogs or pick (DENVER) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games are 36-12 ATS 5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Denver to cover 

Denver has gone under  10 straight times off a  fav loss which happened last week in a 12-9 defeat . They are also  0-6 UNDER after playing on a  Thursday tilt and  and have gone under 5 straight times in Monday night Football prime time affairs as a combined average of  (38.8 ppg )going  on the scoreboard.. The Broncos have also gone under in 12 of their L/14 division road tilts. Meanwhile, the LA CHARGERS have gone under the total in 4 straight Monday night home games and have played some fairly los scoring affairs vs the Broncos with a combined average of 35 ppg scored when playing as hosts. Everything points to another low scoring sleeper in this spot play.Note: Monday night visiting sides off playing on Thursday last week at home like Denver have gone under 7 straight times dating back 6 seasons.

Denvers last 22 games dating back to last season have seen a combined average of 36.9 ppg scored.

LA CHARGERS are 18-7 UNDER L/25 in home games vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.7 or less passing yards/att with a combined average of 36.4 ppg scored. 

LA CHARGERS are 6-0 UNDER  after a win by 6 or less points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 43 points per game scored. 

NFL Road teams against the total (DENVER) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 41-15 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Analysis to follow- thank you for your patience

Dallas last 3 meetings vs the Eagles has seen a combined average of 64 ppg go on the board.

McCarthy is 25-9 OVER in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. in all games he has coached in his career.

Over is 6-1 in Eagles last 7 home games. Over is 5-1 in Eagles last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Over is 12-4 in Cowboys last 16 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. 

NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (DALLAS) - after 4 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 5 or more consecutive wins are 26-1 OVER L/39 seasons for a 97% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER

Buffalo is great team and off a convincing 38-3 win vs Pittsburgh last week ,  but I have circled this game on my schedule for a while, and with the Chiefs getting points Im going with the underdog. Mahomes has matured alot after some key losses and in his career and now looks ready to ascend . Chiefs QB Mahomes is 9-0 ATS as a dog in his NFL career and Im betting he and his team have the edge in this tilt.  I know the kid had to work hard to get bring his team back from a deficit last time out in a 30-29 win, but he proved himself to be a winner, and nothing changes today.

Reid is 35-18 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of KANSAS CITY.

NFL Road favorites (BUFFALO) - solid team - out-gaining their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 5-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Favorites (BUFFALO) - with an incredible offense - averaging 385 or more total yards/game, after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 6-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Chiefs to cover 

Arizona is more than capable of  taking advantage of Seattle's porous run defense and Im betting on  QB Kyle Murray to run wild here and use play action to put up a big offensive output. The Seahawks have allowed an average of 30.8 ppg this season, and those numbers should not get any better after this tilt. 

ARIZONA is 6-0 ATS  in road games in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Kingsbury is 6-0 ATS in road games vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game as the coach of ARIZONA.

SEATTLE is 0-6 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better over the last 3 seasons.

NFL team (SEATTLE) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 2-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 92% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road favorites (ARIZONA) - with a poor first half defense - 14 or more points per game, after a loss by 6 or less points are 22-4 ATS L/39 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. 

The visiting team is  15-2-1 ATS in this series and a rinse and repeat situation is at hand this Sunday again. 

Play on Arizona to cover 

How embarrassing it must have been for the Steelers as an organization after last weeks 38-3 loss to Buffalo. Now in redemption mode Im expecting  Tomlin and company to salvage some respect with a top tier effort here at home vs TB ,  where they are 9-1-3 ATS L/13 as home dogs, including a 5-0 ATS mark vs NFC south and 5-1 ATS L/6 vs the Buccaneers. Note:Tomlin when getting points at home is  12-2-5 ATS in his career, including 5-0-2 ATS L/7 opportunities dating back 4 seasons. 

PITTSBURGH is 17-6 ATS  after allowing 35 points or more last game since 1992 with a +8 point diff. 

NFLHome underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PITTSBURGH) - slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 14 points or less last game are 31-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Pittsburgh to cover 

The Giants are being under rated here as home dogs vs a Baltimore team that does not deserve as much respect as its getting based in part on their reputation and their win against Cincinnati last time out. However, after watching the Giants consistently this season, Ive noticed one key factor which has me on them today, and that is team chemistry and grit. This team plays hard, and have more upper tier talent than given credit for.

Note: Ravens bring a 3-7 ATS  L/10 NFC East, including  0-4-1 ATS when traveling . The home side this season is  5-0 ATS run in this series and a rinse and repeat situation is at hand. 

Harbaugh is 18-30 ATS  in October games as the coach of BALTIMORE.

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BALTIMORE) - in a game involving two mistake-free teams (1.25 or less turnovers/game committed), after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers are 22-49 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  69% conversion rate. 

Play on NY Giants to cover 

Dolphins QBs Tua Tagovailoa and Teddy Bridgewater are  in concussion protocol, and if one or the other plays will be less than 100% this week vs the visiting Vikings. The Dolphins could be forced to start rookie Skylar Thompson, who played most of Miami's Week 4 loss to the New York Jets. On the flipside Im betting QB  Kirk Cousins and the Vikings take advantage of the banged up Fins and  Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook  to  explode on the Miami defense  and romp to a win behind a consistent offense. 

MIAMI is 0-6 ATS in October games over the last 2 seasons.

QB Justin Fields just has not shown much at this level and all the excuses in the world or pundits calling for new coordinators will not do it in my humble opinion. The Bears 32nd ranked passing offense is in a shambles and the offense as a whole is in the same boat thanks to their woeful passing attack. Meanwhile, Washington will be motivated to bounce back after blowing chance to beat Tennessee last week . QB Wentz screwed up allowing an interception on the 1 yard line , and it was horrifying to watch. Now with PTSD firmly in place, I look for the shell shocked Commodores to bounce back and get rid of their MIA status. 

All games played at CHICAGO since 1992-WASHINGTON is 6-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO .WASHINGTON is 5-1 straight up against CHICAGO .

NFL team vs the money line (CHICAGO) - off a road loss against a division rival, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are just 13-40 L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Washington to win 

KC played a big game and notched a victory against Tampa Bay last time out in a high scoring 41-31 affair,  the Chiefs now in a letdown situation regression should be on the table, and that will aid in this tilt staying on the low side of the total. KANSAS CITY is 6-0 UNDER  in home games after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 36.5 ppg going on the scoreboard.LAS VEGAS is 38-19 UNDERL/57 in road games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game with a combined average of 45.7 ppg going on the scoreboard. Note: The Raiders found a way to win last time out, finally stopping the run ,which correlates with these trends. Under is 6-0 in Raiders last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 6-1 in Raiders last 7 games following a straight up win.

The 5 Monday night games so far this season have seen a combined average of 36.8 ppg scored. 

Under is 5-0 in Chiefs last 5 Monday games. 

 Reid is 21-6 UNDER  in home games when playing against a team with a losing record as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 40.7 ppg scored. 

NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (KANSAS CITY) - after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 23-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. 

NFL Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (KANSAS CITY) - excellent passing team ( 265  or more PY/game) against a poor passing defense (230-265 PY/game), after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 22-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. 

Under is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings in Kansas City.

Play UNDER 

I know Philly is a perfect 4-0 and the only undefeated team in the NFL right now but despite of The Birds offensive line is a little banged up they are still capable of hanging tough here at home vs a team traveling from the west to east. Note: The Cards  signed some insurance in the form of Billy Price who is a multiple purpose lineman and highly under rated. Im betting despite of the injuries the Cards will step up here and be competitive. 

Arizona is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against the NFC East. ARIZONA is 22-9 ATS   vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season. Kingsbury is 11-3 ATS  in weeks 5 through 9 as the coach of ARIZONA. Kingsbury is 11-3 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of ARIZONA.

NFL Road favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - solid team - out-gaining their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are just 5-24 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Cardinals to cover 

 Detroit owns a a defense that ranks at the bottom of the NFL in overall yards (444.8) and points allowed (35.3 ) and is in fade material in their current form . Detroit lost to Seattle 48-45 last time out. Patriots are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and have the edge! 

DETROIT is 3-12 ATS  in road games off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less. DETROIT is 9-22 ATS  in road games after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game

NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS  against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Belichick is 17-4 ATS after being out-gained by 150+ total yards in their previous game as the coach of NEW ENGLAND which was the case last time out. 

NFL  team (DETROIT) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 2-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 92% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Patriots to cover 

Miamis QB today Bridgewater is 2-0 in two career starts against the Jets, completing 73.1 percent of his throws in those affairs. Today Im betting he hits Tyreek Hill (477 yards, two touchdowns) and Jaylen Waddle (381 yards, three touchdowns) for enough receptions and scores to get us to the promised land. Meanwhile, the flip-side, NY Jets QB Wilson, who went 3-10 as a starter last year, is playing behind a banged-up offensive line and at a disadvantage this Sunday. 

Dolphins are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC East.MIAMI is 9-0 ATS  off 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons.

Jets are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 vs. AFC East.

Play on the Miami Dolphins to cover 

NYG QB Daniels is not 100% with a banged up ankle hampering his mobility which is not a good omen against the Packers aggressive pass rush. With that said, Im betting on the Gmens offense to have flow issues, while the Packers behind , Aaron Rodgers arm gets consistent production and gets is a conclusive victory. 

In the previous 7 international  games that have featured favs  of more than 7 points  the chalk have gone 6-0 SU cashing 5 of those times with the winning team allowing an average of just 11.7 ppg. 

NFL Favorites vs. the money line (GREEN BAY) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG), after a win by 3 or less points are 29-1 L/10 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.2 which qualifies on the his ATS offering. 

Play on Green Packers to cover 

Colts star   RB Jonathan Taylor is not 100% if he plays tonight as his ankle continues to give him trouble. With the Colts  key offensive juggernaut not at his zenith their offense should continue to struggle. Note: Colts offense has averaged   an NFL-low 14.3 points per game and with senior citizen  QB Matt Ryan on his last legs the Colts offense is not going to operate well enough to generate a decent output . On the flip-side Broncos  qb Wilson has gone 20-3 in home primetime games and will be out to show case his top shelf grit this Thursday night and finally get consistent red zone TD conversions.  

The Colts are ranked 32nd in offensive DVOA this year.

Broncos are 4-0 SU/ATS vs non division opposition on Thursday nights and are 4-0 ATS L/4 in this series.

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (INDIANAPOLIS) - poor rushing team (70-95 RY/game) against a team with an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/game), after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 60-107 L/39 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Denver 

I  have a great deal of respect for KC and Patrick Mahomes but tonight Im betting against them on the road in Tampa Bay against QB Tom Brady and company. I know  three-time NFL MVP has thrown for just 673 yards and three touchdowns in three games after setting franchise records in both categories last season (5,316, 43) but like a thoroughbred off a long lay off , he will be now ready  with the rust worm off to perform at an optimal output here on national tv in the Sunday night spot light event. Note: Brady is 11-1-1 ATS as a home dog in his illustrious career. 

Chiefs are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.Chiefs are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games following a ATS loss.Chiefs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Buccaneers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss.Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Buccaneers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games.

Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Tampa Bay.Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

NFL Favorites (KANSAS CITY) - out-gaining their opponents by 1.75 or more passing yards/attempt, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game arem24-56 L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tampa Bay to cover 

 The New York Jets secondary has  allowed the fourth-most yards per attempt at 7.5 per pass and Im betting even the much maligned QB Trubisky cannot do some downfield damage here this Sunday.Opposition QBs  have eclipsed  this offered Total in two of three games against the Jets and a rinse and repeat situation is a high probability event. 

Arizona is 4-0 OVER L4 vs Carolina with a combined average of 51 ppg going on the scoreboard ---  Arizona is also 10-1 OVER  L11 vs NFC South  with a combined average of 58.1 ppg scored.  Panthers are 7-0 OVER  L7 vs NFC West  with a combined average of 55.1 ppg scored. 

Over is 4-1 in Panthers last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Over is 7-2 in Panthers last 9 games in Week 4.

Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

Dallas QB Rush has played well in wins over the AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals and the New York Giants but Im betting he has a lapse here vs a D that my rankings suggest matchup well against him and the Dallas O line!  

I know the Commanders experienced a nasty day  in last week's 24-8 loss to Philadelphia, but this is a better side than that score would indicate and Im betting they will be ready to get some redemption in a motivated bounce back situation. 

Washington's QB  Wentz has a history of success against the Boyz. In eight career starts against the men from Dallas , and  has  garnered 14 touchdowns and a career passer rating of 95.7. He will be key again and give us the edge to cover. 

WASHINGTON is 20-8 ATS L/28 in road games vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return . Rivera is 22-10 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread in all games he has coached.

NFL Favorites (DALLAS) - poor offensive team - scoring 17 or less points/game are 3-21 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Washington to cover 

These two teams run the ball more than they pass it and are ranked in the top 5 in that category. With that said, I expect alot of time consuming running plays to eat up the clock and for a lower scoring very physical  type affair to be played. I know the Falcons have gone over in 3 straight games, all covers, but it must be noted that NFL home teams off 3 or more ATS victories  that  saw them  go ‘OVER the Total are 0-6 to the under the L/5 seasons.

ATLANTA is 6-0 UNDER  vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game over the last 3 seasons of 37.3 ppg scored.

Cleveland has also gone over in 3 straight but regression here is an expected outcome according to my projections. Note: AFC away chalk  of  1 or more  points  like the Browns  have seen 16 of their L/17 tilts go UNDER  versus any NFC opponent  when the totals offering is  54 points or less. Clevelands last 21 games vs  NFC South division opponents has seen a combined average of 37.8 ppg scored. 

Play UNDER 

Browns lead the league in Time of Possession this season (35:36) and are capable of hitting back via the pass game with under rated QB Brissett  or the  run game behind vaunted RB Chubb. Brissett has given up just one interception in 92 passes so far this season.

They have won the stats battle in all 3 of their games and deserve respect here to cash for on the road vs a over rated Atlanta side. Note: The Browns are 5-0 ATS L/5 non conference road tilts. 

Atlanta is 0-8 SUATS versus the AFC North last 8 seasons , while the Browns are  7-0 ATS in its last seven games against the NFC South.

Smith is 0-6 ATS  in home games after playing their last game on the road as the coach of ATLANTA.ATLANTA is 2-18 ATS in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread. 

The Browns own a 12-3 lead in the all-time series, including a 28-16 home win in the teams' last meeting on Nov. 11, 2018. Rinse and repeat situation on board. 

Play on Cleveland to cover 

The Ravens must not be underestimated   in this tilt vs a top tier  Buffalo side  as they are, averaging 33 points and 380.3 yards per game behind the arm and legs  of QB  Jackson, and a over powering offensive line. 

Baltimore's HC John Harbaugh is 7-1 ATS in his last eight games as a home underdog, going  5-0 ATS in his L/5 opportunities . 

BALTIMORE is 37-21 ATS against AFC East division opponents.BALTIMORE is 5-1 straight up against BUFFALO since 1992 at home. 

It must be noted that \NFL Home dogs with a moneyline in the +125 to +155 own a strong  23-11 (68%) conversion rate  straight dating back 17 seasons. 

NFLFavorites (BUFFALO) - solid team - out-gaining their opponents by 0.75 or more yards/play, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are are 12-52 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Baltimore to cover 

Miami's QB Tua Tagovailoa’s  has a banged up ankle , but if the Dolphins man under center can not go, Teddy Bridgewater should not be underestimated as a road dog as his  23-9 ATS mark as a  pup would indicate. Note"Teddy Bridgewater has defeated the Bengals two of three times he has faced them.The Fins are 3-0 on the season, and found a way to beat a top tier Buffalo Bills squad this season behind strong receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and are built to give the Bengals secondary fits. Im betting on the Bengals Super Bowl  hangover to hamper them again this week vs a well conditioned side on  short rest.

 Miami is 17-5 SU L/22 meetings in this series. 

Miami is 15-3 ATS L/18 as non division road dogs of 5 points or less.

Miami is 4-0 L/4 vs AFC. 

NFLHome favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CINCINNATI) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 8-37 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Miami to cover

Dallas QB Cooper Rush 2-0 SUATS in his career and I wont be surprised by another win here vs the NY Giants this Monday night.  I know the Giants are 2-0 thanks to two close wins, but if history repeats itself thats not a good omen for a Gmen franchise that is just 2-8 SU/ATS when coming off consecutive victories. I know the Giants have revenge for two straight losses in this series but once again negative numbers appear when in redemption mode as they failed to cover 8 of their L/9 when in Double revenge. 

DALLAS is 6-0 ATS  versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.  DALLAS is 8-1 ATS (in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.

McCarthy is 17-3 ATS  in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points in all games he has coached in his career. 

NFL team vs the money line (NY GIANTS) - off a upset win as an underdog, team that had a terrible record last season (25% or less ) playing a team had a winning record last year are 1-31 L/39 seasons for a go against  97% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Home favorites (NY GIANTS) - poor team from last season - outscored by opponents by 4 or more points/game, versus division opponents are 16-42 ATS L/39 seasons for a go against  73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Dallas Cowboys  to cover 

For the second week in a row the Falcons blew a chance for victory and lost the game with minutes left on the clock. Could the third time around be a charm. Im betting yes. 

Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Falcons are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.

Seahawks are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 vs. NFC.Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.Seahawks are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

NFL Home favorites (SEATTLE) - in the first month of the season, non-playoff team from prior season who won their last 2 games are 4-24 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Atlanta Falcons to cover/win 

Houston has revenge on board for a loss they suffered to Chicago last season by a 36-7 count and will be motivated to get some redemption and payback this Sunday. 

Chicago last time out only threw the ball 11 times and look woefully awful on offense and the D for all intensive  purposes looks suspect .  Im betting the Bears have problems scoring this season unless something drastic is done and that will be their downfall today.

Texas has covered 4 of the L/5 meetings in this series, and the Bears have shown a propensity for failure after taking on the Packers, losing and failing to cover 6 straight times after Cheese head confrontations. 

Texans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Texans are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

Bears are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Bears are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points which was the case vs the Packers last Thursday night in a DD loss. 

Play on Houston to cover 

Colts QB Ryan threw three interceptions and was sacked five times in the loss to Jacksonville last week. The Colts had just 218 yards and nine first downs and Im betting things dont get much better vs a under rated top tier Chiefs D. Colts lack of attack will be a contributing factor in this game staying under the set total. 

Under is 7-0 in Colts last 7 games overall.Under is 6-0 in Colts last 6 vs. AFC.

These teams have gone under in 4 straight meetings with the average combined ppg clicking in at 34.8 . 

INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 UNDER in home games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Home teams against the total (INDIANAPOLIS) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite are 25-3 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for btettors with the average combined score clicking in at 40.5 ppg. 

Play on under 

The Bengals looked to be in Super Bowl  hungover mode in their first two games of the season , but today Im betting they have an edge against a Jets side that is off a emotional come from behind upset win vs Cleveland last week. The combination of the Bengals being very hungry here, and the Jets batteries being drained Im expecting a conclusive Cincinnati victory and cover. 

NY JETS are 1-11 ATS  after 2 straight games with 40 or more pass attempts.

NFL team vs the money line (NY JETS) - off a upset win as an underdog, team that had a terrible record last season (25% or less) playing a team that  had a winning record last year are 31-1 L/39 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +12.7 which qualifies on the ATS offering. 

Play on the Cincinnati Bengals to cover 

The Colts are off a ugly 24-0 loss to the Jaguars last week and are now in redemption mode and will be primed to pull off an upset  vs a strong looking KC side.  Colts QB Ryan owns a 11-5 SUATS career record against AFC West opp , including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS as a under dog. If Mahomes and company get the win here Im betting it wont come easily making getting points essential here.

NFL home dogs off a shut loss are 12-2-1 ATS L/15 in their follow up game. 

INDIANAPOLIS is 16-6 ATS  as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. INDIANAPOLIS is 10-2 ATS off a division game over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Underdogs or pick (INDIANAPOLIS) - good offensive team from last season - scored 24 or more points/game are 46-23 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Indianapolis to cover 

I personally believe we have an over reaction to the Cowboys losing their starting QB Prescott for a under determined amount of time because of a hand injury. I know Cincinnati is a strong team, but Joe Burrows   behind a revamped OLine registered a career-high 5 turnovers in last week’s loss to the Steelers and could face pressure again vs a Dallas side that still exhibits a top tier D. In n my humble opinion the Bengals are  vulnerable and we have  a viable investment opportunity backing the underdog Cowboys. 

Defending Super Bowl losers are just  37-62-5 ATS as non-division road chalk.

The Cowboys are a long-term 40-20-1 ATS L/61 as a home underdog . 

DALLAS is 39-23 ATS after a loss by 14 or more points since 1992.

NFL Underdogs or pick (DALLAS) - excellent passing team from last season - averaged 275 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 34-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Dallas to cover 

Defending super bowl champion Rams looked asleep at the wheel in their opening game loss by a 31-10 count to the Buffalo Bills last Thursday night. Note:NFL teams  like LAR who scored 10 or less points in a Thursday night tilt  have gone  under 16 straight times  in their follow game dating back 5 seasons with a combined average of 36.2 ppg going on the board. Atlanta also lost which is important as  NFL contests  have gone UNDER 28 of their L/36 opportunities  when both  sides  are of a home defeat  in their last game  . Everything points to this being a low scoring affair as the early season rust and attention to strong Defensive play remains important. 

Under is 4-1 in Falcons last 5 road games. 

LA RAMS are 16-4 UNDER  in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.LA RAMS are 6-0 UNDER  in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons

Under is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.Under is 6-0 in Rams last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.Under is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games on fieldturf.Under is 6-0 in Rams last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

. NFL team against the total (ATLANTA) - off a home loss against opponent off a home loss by 10 or more points are 36-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (LA RAMS) - off a home loss by 10 or more points are 46-16 UNDER  L/10 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

The Browns miraculously ended a  17-game winless - opening streak  games with a late 58 yard FG with  8 seconds remaining for a 26-24 victory  at Carolina last Sunday much to my chagrin. Despite of that improbable hyperbole victory Im going against the Browns this week. After watching Baker Mayfield struggle behind a offensive line that looked ragged it actually not a hard decision to fade the Browns here vs a under rated NY Jets D that played tough against Baltimore last week despite of losing. 

CLEVELAND is 0-6 ATS  after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons and have failed to cover 6 of their L/7 at home as 3 or more point favorite. 

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CLEVELAND) - marginal losing team from last season who won 40-49% of their games, in conference games are just 14-39 ATS L/39 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on NY Jets to cover 

Carolina lost a 26-24 heart breaker on a 58 yard FG with under 8 seconds left on the clock to Cleveland last week, but Im betting on a bounce back effort here vs public favorite the NY Giants this week, another side that snatched a victory late by a 21-20 count. 

The Giants are just  4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games when favored and , are just  1-7-1 ATS in non-division tilts. 

NFLHome favorites (NY GIANTS) - team that had a losing record last season, in conference games are 97-163 ATS L/39 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors. 

Tom Brady is still undefeated in his career vs the Dallas Cowboys with a 7-0 record after last weeks win by a 19-3 count. Brady was not prolific but still found a way to win behind a top tier D. This week however, I expect Tom to have some regression, something he has done in the past after covering by DDs on the road and than going into successive away tilts , as is evident by failing to cover in his L/6 opportunities. Last season the Saints took out the Bucs both times they met them and despite of having  revenge on board, things  are far from automatic vs a Saints team that has proven it knows how to handle Brady and company. It must be noted that the Bucs are just 1-6 ATS L/7 on the road in a double revenge scenario.

The Saints have won SU 8 of their L/9 and have cashed  9 straight  as conference home dogs against  .800 + opponents and are 7-1 ATS L/8 in this series. 

NFL Home teams (NEW ORLEANS) - off a win against a division rival, in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season are 39-14 ATS L/39 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on New Orleans to cover 

Im betting the Giants will continue push the ball on the ground with Barkley and play a slow grinding type of football in the trenches. With Carolina looking offensively vulnerable and their D which was no 1 in the NFC last year being the key to their successes and failures Im  looking at beatable totals numbers as a  critical money making factor this season .  With that said my projections make this this number a viable to the under investment option  NY GIANTS are 7-0 UNDER  in home games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 32.9 ppg scored  and have actually gone under in 12 straight homes games with a combined average of 34 ppg going on the board . NY GIANTS are 15-4 UNDER  in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 38.7 ppg scored. NY GIANTS are 8-1 UNDER  after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.1 ppg scored. Giants have gone under 7 of their L/8 times as fav or dog of less than 3 points. Under is 5-0 in Giants last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Carolina has gone under 9 straight times with NO Saints on board in their following tilt which is the case this week. 

NFL  team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NY GIANTS/ CAROLINA) - first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 6 or more losses in last 8 games against opponent first month of the season, after closing out last season with 6 or more losses in last 8 games are 32-8 UNDER L/39 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

Jags were able to move the ball decently in their loss to the Commodores last week and should be able to move the chains again vs a Colts team off a tough grinding game last week vs Houston. 

Jaguars have won seven consecutive home games against the Colts in Duval County.

Jags are 12-1 ATS in this series, including 5-0 ATS the last five games and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation today.

Todays weather is expected to be in the 80s in Jacksonville with high humidity and this will favor the Jags who are more accustomed to this heat than a Colts side that plays their games in a dome. 

Play on Jacksonville to cover 

The upgrades to Denver Broncos football and the so called rebuilding of the Seattle Seahawks has the public hands down backing the visitors tonight. However, in my sometimes contrarian ways Im instead going with the home dog. I know newly acquired Broncos QB  Russell Wilson knows  his former team the Seahawks well, but likewise so do the Seahawks know Wilson well and his mode of operation and his weaknesses. As far as preseason football goes, I was not impressed by the Broncos, and their coaching staff. I really feel their are alot of kinks that need to be ironed out, for this Denver franchise to show the upward momentum expected of them  making getting points with the home side a better deal than many might expect .Carroll is 21-11 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of SEATTLE.Carroll is 50-29 ATS   as an underdog as the coach of SEATTLE.Carroll is 14-5 ATS  in home games in September games as the coach of SEATTLE.

Denver 3-11-1 ATS L/14 Monday nighters.

Monday night chalk in game 1 of the season are just 19-39-1 ATS L/42 seasons.

Play on Seattle to cover  

Off season moves by Jags has  WR Christian Kirk,  in the lineup giving QB Lawrence the best receiver he’s played with in his NFL career and Im betting as long as they both stay healthy they will have a productive on field relationship that will aid the Jags offense greatly . 

Expected QB matchup Wentz vs Lawrence. 

Historical Trends: 

WASHINGTON is 16-36 ATS  in home games in September games since 1992.WASHINGTON is 44-75 ATS  as a home favorite since 1992.

Commanders are 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53 games as a home favorite.Commanders are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.Commanders are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in September.

Jacksonville Jags to cover 

Baltimores QB Jackson is still in contract negotiations, and may not be 100% focused and with key receiver Marquis Brown gone and Sammy Watkins also playing somewhere else this season, may not have as many options to move the ball as he once had. Offensive adjustments are now in play and could easily stymie the Ravens output early on this season and more importantly today. Meanwhile, NYJ  banged up starting QB Wilson may not play this week or see limited action. No matter what materializes Im betting the Jets remain limited in their offensive prowess, and could easily have problems against a supped up Baltimore D.  Everything points to this combined score not eclipsing the offered number. 

BALTIMORE is 22-10 UNDER L/32 in road games against AFC East division opponents with a combined average of 37.8 ppg scored. Under is 5-0 in Ravens last 5 games as a favorite.Under is 4-0 in Ravens last 4 games as a road favorite.Under is 11-4 in Ravens last 15 road games

NY JETS  in their L/6 September games over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average score of 36.8 ppg go on the score board. Under is 4-0 in Jets last 4 games in September.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (/BALTIMORE /NY JETS) - first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 6 or more losses in last 8 games against opponent first month of the season, after closing out last season with 6 or more losses in last 8 games are 30-8 UNDER L/39 seasons for a 79% conversion rate with the average ppg total clicking in at 40.9 ppg. 

Play UNDER 

The Panthers will start Baker Mayfield this week against a Cleveland side that will start back up QB  Jacoby Brissett instead of the suspended DeShaun Watson. Im betting Mayfield will want a grain of redemption here to prove to the Browns what they gave up on. Note: Brissett has lost 23 of his 37 NFL starts for a go against 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Bottom line: The Panthers   with a motivated  Baker in the lineup , and 
RB  Christian McCaffrey finally 100%  and an upgraded offensive line and a defense that lead the NFC last season the advantage here today resides with Carolina at home.  Cleveland is just  1-29-1 SU  in season openers since  1999 and are fade material here for me in this opener. 

Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in September.

Play on Carolina to win 

The defending Super Bowl Champions the LA Rams host the Buffalo Bills in both sides opening tilt of the regular season this Thursday night. At the time of me releasing this selection the Bills are getting most of the publics support, but head coach Sean McVay and company have proved very competitive out of the gate in the recent past posting a 5-0 SU/ATS record in game 1 of the season and must not be underestimated. Buffalo barley eked out a 35-32 win during the 2020 campaign  at home when these teams played and will be lucky in my opinion to get the job done again vs a top tier side that demands respect from opponents. 

Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 1.Rams are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games in September.

Defending Super Bowl champions are 5-0 ATS as home dogs in the  first six games of the season dating back 42 seasons..

NFL Underdogs or pick (LA RAMS) - good offensive team from last season - scored 24 or more points/game are 43-16 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on LA Rams to cover 

The Bengals have covered seven straight games  entering this  Super Bowl game vs the LA Rams. Key Bengals component QB Joe Burrow is 12-4 ATS vs. above .500 opponents, making him the most profitable QB in NFL since he was drafted No. 1 overall in 2020.  This kid is  as cold as ice, and is not intimidated by the spot light of big games , as the Heisman Trophy winner has a CFB national championship under his belt and key NFL play off victories . Burrows is   (13-2-1 ATS in his NFL career as  +2.5 dog  or more points) 

Bengals HC Taylor is 12-7 SUATS in games when the Bengals own a .500 or greater record, including 6-1 ATS as an away dog. 

NFL Super Bowl teams  like the Bengals coming off a win as an underdog of more than three points are 11-3-1 ATS dating back 42 seasons. 

Cincinnati has taken on  9 playoff squads this season, going 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS. 

 Teams like the Bengals  with the lower win percentage are 11-4 SU and 14-1 ATS in the last 15 Super Bowls . 

From a overall perspective my data suggests that this game could easily be won by a FG or less, but when the money is down, Ill key on Burrows as the savior and ultimate profit maker for us today. 

   The Rams QB  Matthew Stafford entered this season 23-57 (28.85) SU in his career vs. teams above .500 and even though he is at home, is not a viable favorite according to my projections considering his streaky history. 

The 49ers enter this game matching up very well vs their hosts the L A Rams as HC Sean McVay  has 6 straight win this this series and obviously knows how to get the job done vs Shanahan and company. Note:  SF QB Garappolo is 12-2 ATS as a dog of less than five points in his career and despite of average numbers in the play offs remains a dangerous QB who at any time could explode for a big day. I know  Rams QB Stafford has looked tremendous for the Rams in the post season, but hes a very streaky player, and here against a strong SF D that in its best form the of the season, the sledding could get very rough. 

SAN FRANCISCO is 8-2 ATS  vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season this season. SAN FRANCISCO is 7-0 ATS   in January games over the last 3 seasons. 

49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC.

SAN FRANCISCO is 20-8 ATS vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game in the second half of the season. 

NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (18-23 PPG) after 8 or more games, after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less points are 31-9 ATS L/39 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Underdog is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Play on the SF 49ers to cover 

AFC Playoffs - Championship

The KC Chiefs exploded  offensively in a a back in forth game against the Buffalo Bills last week pulling off the over time win. Now Im betting they will be in an emotional letdown spot vs the visiting Bengals and their offense could easily be a little more muted this Saturday which Im betting will directly effect this total to the under. 

 CINCINNATI is 24-8 L/32 UNDER  in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) in the second half of the season with a combined average of 36.2 ppg scored. CINCINNATI is 15-1 L/16  UNDER  in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or more  yards/game in the second half of the season  with a combined average of 39.5 ppg scored.

CINCINNATI is 7-0 UNDER  after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games this season with a combined average of 39.9 ppg scored.

KANSAS CITY is 38-20 UNDER  as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points since 1992 with the average ppg  with a combined average of 40.2 ppg scored. 

NFL eam where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (KANSAS CITY) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.4 YPP) after 8+ games, after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are 31-8 UNDER  L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

AFC Playoffs - Divisional

These  two top tier teams, go head to head in the play offs and Im betting the difference maker will be home field advantage. The Chiefs knocked off the Bills in last years play offs and despite of the Bills getting revenge earlier this season still matchup very well here according to my power rankings. Note:KC QB  Murray  is 7-2 in his play off history, with both losses vs the king Tom Brady. Bills are  3-0 at home and 0-3 away in the playoffs under Sean McDermott.

BUFFALO is 3-13 ATS  in road games after 4 or more consecutive wins. 

NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (KANSAS CITY) - off 5 or more consecutive overs, excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game are 26-6 ATS L/39 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

  NFL road team in the Divisional Round of the playoffs coming off a victory of 25-plus points (Buffalo) if  going against a .750 or less opponent (KC) are just 0-7 ATS dating back 42 seasons. 

.Play on the KC Chiefs to cover 

NFC Playoffs - Divisional

TB  super star and king of the NFL QB Tom Brady is 0-2 just  SUATS vs the Rams while he has been with the  Bucs  with both defeats coming as a favorite. It's never an easy decision to play against Brady but I feel we have an edge taking points with a Rams  side that slowly pushed itself in top form as the season progressed. Buccaneers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as a favorite.

Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.Rams are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall and are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog.

NFL Road teams (LA RAMS) - in a game involving two excellent offensive teams (>=370 YPG) after 8+ games, after out-gaining opp by 100 or more total yards in their previous game are 34-10 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate.

Rams are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings.Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Tampa Bay.

Play on the LA Rams to cover 

AFC Playoffs - Divisional

Bengals second-year quarterback Joe Burrow is the real deal . He set a  franchise record  in passing yards (4,611) and touchdown passes (34) this season while completing an NFL-best 70.4 percent of his attempts. I know the return of Titans star RB Derrick  Henry is expected  , but he will have a ton of rust on him and he is possibly still not 100%. It being touted that burrows does not have NFL play off experience, but he proved the naysayers wrong last week, and its not like he has not completed for championships before , so I doubt very much he will be intimidated. Advantage Bengals getting points. 

Bengals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.Bengals are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.CINCINNATI is 12-4 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.

Titans are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff home games.

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TENNESSEE) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after 3 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 13-37 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Play on the Cincinnati to cover 

NFC Playoffs - Wild Card

I was not going to touch this one, but when the line got down to a FG I had to bite on what Im betting is the better team playing at home.  

First off Murray does not look 100% , and while Stafford is probably also not in great shape overall, because of the some of the punishment he took hes in a better portion to succeed tonight as he does not need to consistently scramble to make plays. 

The Rams have won and covered 5 of the L/6 meetings and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation tonight. ( Rams are also 8-1-1 ATS L/10 in this series) Favorite is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.

ARIZONA is 1-8 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more  yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.Kingsbury is 4-13 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season as the coach of ARIZONA.

LA RAMS are 25-13 ATS  against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

NFLUnderdogs of +140 to +325 vs. the money line (ARIZONA) - after 1 or more consecutive losses, when playing on Monday night are 2-31 L/5 seasons for a go against 94% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at -9.4 which qualifies on this ATS line. 

Play on the LA Rams to cover 

For the most part Ben Rothlisberger had a great career but now father time has caught up with him, and their does not look to be much left in the tank . With that said, Im betting he and the Steelers have problems today on offense against a under rated KC defense. The Steelers because of their obvious offensive short comings will be prepared to play a grinding game that will concentrate on short passes and their running game which will eat clock time. On the flipsdie the Steelers D, after some ugly efforts pulled themselves together lately allowing 3 of their L/4 opponents no more than 13 points, and must not be underestimated in their ability to slow down the Chiefs , especially on what is expected to be a windy cold night in KC this Sunday. 

PITTSBURGH is 29-12 UNDER  in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points with a combined average of 42.7 ppg scored.

KANSAS CITY is 14-3 UNDER L/17  as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points with the average combined score clicking in at 34.4 ppg. 

NFL Road teams against the total (PITTSBURGH) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 53-17 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL team against the total (KANSAS CITY/PITTSBURGH) - in the Wild Card round of the playoffs are 52-22 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

NFC Playoffs - Wild Card

The Cowboys explosive  offense goes against a staunch defense ranked second in the league against the rush and fifth in the league in sacks with 48. On the flip side the 49ers, have won 8 of their L/10 overall and must also  not be underestimated from a offensive perspective behind Jimmy Garoppolo and have an overall edge here according to my projections. 

DALLAS is 1-8 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. 

Dallas is 3-10 SU/ATS in the playoffs dating back 25 seasons , including 1-6 ATS as a favorite. 

DALLAS is 14-34 ATS  after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games . 

NFL Road teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - in a game involving two excellent offensive teams (370 or more  YPG) after 8+ games, after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in their previous game are 33-10 ATS L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Home teams (DALLAS) - solid team - outgaining their opponents by 50 or more yards/game, after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 23-52 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate.

Play on SF 49ers to cover 

The Bills beat up on the Pats towards the end of the season, but that was a learning experience for Mac Jones and company, and with a future HOF coach like Bellichick on the sidelines Im confident  positive adjustments can be made. We have to remember prior to that the Pats took a 14-10 win on the road  in Buffalo on Dec 16th where the franchise is 15-3 ATS L/18 visits.  Note:  NEW ENGLAND L/109 games as a road underdog  and have seen the average ppg diff click in at -1.7. 

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BUFFALO) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 9-39 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against  81% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL  Underdogs or pick (NEW ENGLAND) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games in the second half of the season are 31-8 ATS L/39 seasons for a  80% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (NEW ENGLAND) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games are 29-7 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Road team is 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 meetings.Underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings. 

Play on New England Pats to cover 

AFC Playoffs - Wild Card

Entering this game the Vegas D has allowed 20 points or less 4 of their L/6 trips to the gridiron. In their season finale the Raiders did have a defensive breakdown, allowing 32 points in a 35-32 slugfest victory, but from a historical perspective the Raiders have clamped down in their following game especially if was a shootout, as is evident by the following trends.  Note:Under is 4-1 in Raiders last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Raiders last 5 games following a straight up win.LAS VEGAS is 36-20 UNDER in road games after allowing 30 points or more last game with a combined score of 42.4 ppg scored. LAS VEGAS in their L/13 off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog have seen a combined average 42.6 ppg scored. 

Meanwhile, Joe Burrows and company are a virgin group with no big league play off experience, and this will be detrimental to them and their offensive cohesiveness. Despite of the accolades that Burrows gets there have been obvious interruptions their flow on offense and Im betting that will once again be an issue. 

Under is 4-0 in Bengals last 4 Wildcard games.Under is 4-0 in Bengals last 4 playoff games.Under is 8-1 in Bengals last 9 games in January.

Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.

NFL  team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CINCINNATI) - in a game involving two good offensive teams (335 to 370 YPG) after 8+ games, after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game are 42-14 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team against the total  (VEGAS /CINCINNATI) - in the Wild Card round of the playoffs are 55-22 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

 The Rams QB Stafford  is not seeing the field well as was evident last week when the threw  another  pick-six  , and now has  seven turnovers in the last three trips to the gridiron . Stafford is  infamously streaky and his form is not where it should be entering this game against the SF 49ers.   . Meanwhile, the Niners who have won the stats battles in 7 of their L/8 overall have urgency attached to this affair and will be very motivated to snatch a SU win as a victory or a loss by the Saints,  will get them a post season wild card position . From a matchup perspective the Niners took out  Los Angeles, 31-10, as a 3.5-point home underdog back in November, and  have been a ATS machine for their backers after they  covered  the L/3  meetings in this series.  SAN FRANCISCO is 5-0 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons.

NFL Road underdogs or pick (SAN FRANCISCO) - after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 37-8 L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team vs the money line (LA RAMS) - revenging a road loss against opponent by 14 points or more, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 24-3 L/39 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA RAMS) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 9-38 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the SF 49ers to cover 

Both these teams are done for the season, after today, and Im betting we wont see alot of motivation other than the revenge scenario the Gemn have for a 1 point loss they suffered to the Football team back in Sept. What I do expect is for both coaches to try to find a way to finish their season with some positives, via some slight structural renovations to their systems. In this type of affair, taking points with a home dog is a strong wagering opportunity . Note:  NY GIANTS are 9-1 ATS in home games revenging an extremely close loss against opponent by 3 points or less. 

Football Team are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite.

Football Team are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC East.

Football Team are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY GIANTS) - slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after scoring 17 points or less in 3 straight games are 1160-96 L/39 seasons for a 62% conversion rate.

NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (WASHINGTON) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after a game where they forced no turnovers are 26-56 ATS L/10 seasons for last 10 seasons for a go against  68% conversion rate for bettors.

With so many players injured and the additional woes of covid protocols and the possibility of both teams resting starters at some point during this game, I dont feel their will be enough positive flow for a big offensive output here tonight between these foes. I honestly believe that no matter what these coaches say staying healthy for the play offs is the main goal, which to me relates to an affair with very little cohesiveness. 

Under is 5-0 in Eagles last 5 games in January. Philadelphia is 0-6 UNDER off a division road game victory. 

Under is 7-1 in Cowboys last 8 games as a road favorite.Under is 6-1 in Cowboys last 7 vs. NFC. Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Dallas road games have seen a combined average of 42.9 ppg this season. Note: The Cowboys are 0-6 L/6 division road tilts. 

DALLAS is 9-0 UNDER in road games against teams who commit 1 or less turnovers/game in the second half of the season with a combined average of 32.3 ppg scored. 

McCarthy is 8-1 UNDER  in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points as the coach of DALLAS with a combined average of 38.2 ppg scored.McCarthy is 9-2 UNDER  in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse as the coach of DALLAS with a combined average of 39.2 ppg scored. 

Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Philadelphia with the average combined score in those tilts clicking in at 30.2 ppg. 

NFL Home teams against the total (PHILADELPHIA) - good rushing team (4.5 or more  YPR) against an average rushing defense (3.5 to 4.5 YPR) after 8+ games, after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games are 85-54 UNDER L/39 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

  Cleveland is off two very close losses by 2 points each time and are desperate for a victory and despite of now being eliminated from the playoffs but  are still a side that needs to finish strongly and play spoilers . Meanwhile, Pittsburgh was crushed by the Chiefs last time out , but still can win the AFC North. Needless to say this is a big game for the Steelers but because of their ineptness this  will be a grinding affair with getting  points in my opinion being golden. Browns are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games in January.

Note: the Steelers have now been held without a TD in the first half of 5 consecutive games and these slow starts are a game killers and Im betting it could easily rare its ugly head again tonight. Plus I cant help but feel Steelers QB Ben Rothlisberger is not longer a top tier pivot as father time  remains undefeated. 

Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.Steelers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite.Steelers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Steelers are 0-6 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

NFL Underdogs on the opening l vs. the money line (PITTSBURGH) - off a road loss, when playing on Monday night are 1-24 L/5 seasons for a go against 96% conversion rate for bettors. 

 NFL team vs the money line (PITTSBURGH) - average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 5-30 L/5 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Road teams (CLEVELAND) - off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season. are 27-6 ATS L/29 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play in Cleveland to cover