NBA Archive | |||||||
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
02-25-18 | 76ers +2.5 v. Wizards | Top | 94-109 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #809 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Washington Wizards @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers are in a back to back spot here but they are so hot it doesn't matter. They led Orlando by about 20 in yesterday's game before the Magic closed the gap late. The Sixers hung on for the cover but truly coasted at the end and the final score doesn't do justice to the domination that Philly had in that game. They've won 7 straight and have covered 5 of those 7 games and I am happy to take a hot 76ers team plus get a few points here at Washington. The Wizards are off of a home loss but actually have lost 2 straight home games and now and their defense has allowed 49.5% in their two games since the All Star break. As for the Sixers, their D has allowed 45.5% or less in NINE straight games! Washington is 13-24 ATS as a favorite and the Wizards are also just 10-18 ATS at home this season. Philadelphia is 10-5 SU and ATS when off of a win by a double digit margin and also 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS against Southeast Division opponents this season. More of the same here! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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02-25-18 | Pistons +4.5 v. Hornets | 98-114 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #801 Sunday 8* Detroit Pistons (+) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 1:05 ET - The Pistons are off of a home loss to Boston on Sunday. Detroit is now on an 0-6 ATS streak but, keep in mind, the Pistons were on a 6-3 SU run prior to falling short to the Celtics. Also, Detroit has revenge on their mind here as they lost to the Hornets in mid-January. Prior to that defeat, the Pistons had won 3 straight over Charlotte and they are certainly catching them at the right time to exact revenge. The Hornets are off of a big divisional win at Washington and now have won 3 straight games. When Charlotte is on a SU winning streak of 3 or more wins, they've gone 9-16 SU and ATS. The Hornets are on a long-term 7-13 ATS run in Sunday games while the Pistons are on a 16-11 ATS run on Sundays and are 16-10 ATS this season as an underdog. 8* DETROIT |
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02-24-18 | Celtics v. Knicks +4.5 | 121-112 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Saturday 8* New York Knicks (+) vs Boston Celtics @ 7:35 ET - The Celtics got the win by a dozen point last night at Detroit but look for that to leave the tank close to empty for tonight's game at New York. Keep in mind, these teams just enjoyed a long layoff so it is tough to come back and right away face short rest situations. As for the Knicks, they are rested here as they faced the Magic at Orlando on Thursday. New York will be ready to go here as they were embarrassed by a 30 point margin at Boston last month. Payback is on order here! The Knicks had won 2 of the 4 prior meetings and they're catching them at the right time to get another W here. When the Celtics are in the 2nd game of a back to back and are facing an Eastern Conference foe, they are 0-4 ATS their last 4. Look for the Knicks, with some extra confidence after winning their first game back from the break, to improve to 5-2 ATS in Saturday games this season. 8* NEW YORK |
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02-23-18 | Celtics v. Pistons +2 | Top | 110-98 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
Early Smash Top Play - Rickenbach NBA Game #802 Friday 10* Detroit Pistons (+) vs Boston Celtics @ 7:05 ET - Both these teams were struggling prior to the All Star Break but what was very disconcerting about the Celtics performances was a lack of defense. Boston allowed 50% or more from the field in 3 of their 5 games prior to the break. The Pistons, on the other hand, held 4 of their final 6 opponents prior to the break to just 44% or less from the field. Detroit has also gone 9 straight games without allowing an opponent to hit better than 48.7% from the field. On the other end of the floor, the Celtics have been held under 100 points in 4 of their last 6 games. Conversely, the Pistons have won 6 of their last 9 games and have averaged 109.2 points per game during this stretch. Only 1 time in their last 11 games has Detroit been held below 103 points! Look for Boston to drop to 1-4 SU and ATS on the season when they are off of a game where they allowed 115 points or more. As for the Pistons, they are 16-9 ATS this season as an underdog and I also expect them to improve to 4-1 SU and ATS when they enter a game with 3 or more days of rest between games. The hungry home dog (revenge from home loss in most recent meeting - in December) gets their payback here. 10* DETROIT |
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02-22-18 | Knicks +3.5 v. Magic | 120-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #553 Thursday 8* New York Knicks (+) @ Orlando Magic @ 7:05 ET - This line is practically inviting you to take Orlando as the Magic are such a small home favorite in this match-up and the Knicks have lost 8 straight games. However, as usual, I am going contrarian here and I love New York in this match-up. Oftentimes the best thing that can happen for a team that is struggling is to have a break in the action and that is exactly what the Knicks just benefited from with the All Star break. New York is playing this game with home loss revenge and that is a situation that has seen the Knicks go 8-4 ATS this season. Also, home court has not meant much in recent meetings in his series as the road team is 4-1 SU and ATS in the last 5 meetings! Orlando has a penchant for playing down to the level of competition they face as the Magic have gone 5-14 SU (and 6-13 ATS) in games against teams with a losing record this season! More of the same in this one as I am forecasting Orlando to drop to 3-8 ATS as a favorite this season. Grab the points! 8* NEW YORK |
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02-15-18 | Nuggets +3 v. Bucks | Top | 134-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
Earliest Cash Top Play - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Thursday 10* Denver Nuggets (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:05 ET - The Bucks are 19-9 SU at home this season while the Nuggets are 8-19 SU on the road this season. Why then is Milwaukee such a small home favorite here? Precisely! As usual there is more than meets the eye at first glance here. The key in this match-up is that the Bucks defense has improved but in recent games but their offense has not impressed of late. As a result, simply put, Milwaukee won't be able to keep up with this high-powered Denver team in this one. The Bucks have averaged only 98 points per game in their last 7 games. By comparison, the Nuggets have averaged 115.1 points per game in their last 8 games. Yes, Milwaukee has the better defense in comparison with Denver but the Nuggets certainly aren't going to be "sleeping' on D with this being their final game before the All Star break. The Nuggets are on a 15-8 ATS run against Central Division opponents. The Bucks have covered just 10 of their 28 home games this season! 10* DENVER |
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02-14-18 | Heat +7.5 v. 76ers | Top | 102-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
Earliest Cash Top Play - Rickenbach NBA Game #703 Wednesday 10* Miami Heat (+) @ Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:05 ET - The Heat are in a back to back spot here but have actually gone 4-1 ATS the last 5 times they've played the 2nd game of a back to back. Also, with last night's cover at Toronto, Miami is 5-1 ATS their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Even though they've endured a bit of a slump recently, so many of their losses have been very tight. That is why the Heat getting significant points here is certainly a solid line value. Miami is only 12-10 SU their last 22 games but the average margin of those 10 defeats was 4.9 points. NONE of the 10 losses came by double digits. In other words, getting big points here is indeed a solid value. I know Philadelphia has been hot but this is the final game before the All-Star break for both of these teams and the Heat want it just as bad. In fact, having lost at Philly (by 6) less than two weeks ago strengthens their resolve here. The Sixers are having a great season but they are 0-3 SU and ATS this season when they enter a game on a streak of 3 or more unders. Also, the long-term numbers in that situation are 6-11 ATS and 2-15 SU! Also, when Philadelphia enters a game having played each of their 3 prior games at home, they are 2-4 ATS this season and 4-21 SU the last 3 seasons combined. This one has upset written all over it and certainly there is value with grabbing the points which is what I am recommending for a top play here. 10* MIAMI |
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02-12-18 | Knicks v. 76ers -11.5 | Top | 92-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
NBA TV Top Play - Rickenbach NBA Game #702 Monday 10* Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs New York Knicks @ 7:05 ET - The Knicks have lost 6 straight games. I know the line seems steep here but is justified as the loss of Kristaps Porzingis is a huge one for New York. The game he got hurt was at home against Milwaukee and the Knicks have played 2 games since. In those 3 games the Knicks lost by an average margin of 15.7 points per game. Another blowout loss is likely here as the Sixers are at home and rolling. The 76ers have won 3 straight games and all of them were blowout wins. In fact, 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 wins have come by more than a dozen points. The average margin of victory in those 6 easy wins has been 16.7 points. The Sixers have allowed just 41% from the field in their last 6 games combined. The Knicks are allowing 109.1 points per game on the road this season and, without Kristaps Porzingis, New York is likely to struggle to be competitive in this one. The Knicks are 5-21 SU (and 7-19 ATS) in February games. The Sixers are 16-9 SU (and 17-8 ATS) in home games this season! This is a classic case of hot versus not and facing a hated division rival insures that the 76ers won't take their foot off of the gas in this one! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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02-11-18 | Raptors -3.5 v. Hornets | 123-103 | Win | 100 | 4 h 27 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #801 Sunday 8* Toronto Raptors (-) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 1:05 ET - The Raptors have won both meetings with the Hornets this season and both victories have come by double digits. A similar result is likely today as Charlotte comes into this one on a 3-game losing streak while Toronto is on a 4-game winning streak. The Hornets are an ugly 6-17 ATS this season as an underdog. Also, in games against Atlantic Division opponents, Charlotte is a long-term 13-27 ATS! The Hornets are playing this game with home loss revenge but have gone 3-9 ATS in that situation. The red hot Raptors are 5-2 SU and ATS in Sunday games and are very use to playing these early starts as they have a number of them each season on weekends. Also, Toronto is an incredible 20-5 SU (and 16-9 ATS) when facing a team with a losing record. The Raptors are battling for the top spot in the Atlantic Division as the Celtics are right there with them and this added motivation leads to the road team making it 5 in a row as they take advantage of a struggling foe. 8* TORONTO |
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02-10-18 | Pelicans v. Nets +2.5 | 138-128 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Saturday 8* Brooklyn Nets (+) vs New Orleans Pelicans @ 6:05 ET - While it may seem inviting to take the Pelicans and lay the short number after they got demolished last night at Philly, the fact is that New Orleans is 3-7 SU and ATS when off of a game where they were held to 85 points or less. Also, the Pelicans are 12-30 SU when playing the 2nd game of a back to back. When facing a team with a losing record this season, New Orleans is 1-5 SU its last 6. Brooklyn is a surprising 15-5 ATS when facing a team that averages 106 points or more this season. Also, the Nets have plenty of motivation here as they lost at New Orleans earlier this season and they also lost the last time they hosted Brooklyn. The Nets have lost 4 straight games but are 8-3 ATS when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. They have a significant rest edge here as well as the home court edge. Grab the generous points. 8* BROOKLYN |
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02-09-18 | Clippers +3.5 v. Pistons | Top | 108-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
ESPN Top Play - Rickenbach NBA Game #803 Friday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Clippers (+) @ Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - Big revenge game for the Clippers here. Many will be looking at the revenge angle for Blake Griffin as the Pistons star gets a shot at the team that traded him away. However, the Clippers also appear to be fortified after the trade and they were the better team to begin with as well. That said, market perception has driven this line up from a 2.5 to as high as a 4 as of early gameday morning. This has led to fantastic line value for Los Angeles in this spot. The Clippers lost to the Pistons at home very early this season and the Clips also lost in their most recent visit to Detroit. That said, the Clippers have revenge on their minds here and are well rested and fully focused on making this a successful road trip. Coach Doc Rivers even said that it was a great time for the Clips to get away from home as they look to make a move up the standings and get away from any distractions at home. This is the first of seven straight road games for the Clippers. They've been off since Monday and they are not home again until the 28th. They know this road trip is critical. The Clippers come into this game having won 4 of their last 5 overall and they also have victories in 5 of their last 6 road games. They are 23-12 ATS when playing with home loss revenge and 8-3 ATS when playing with 3 or more days of rest between games. The Pistons have won 5 straight games but are 7-14 ATS when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 or more games. Detroit is 11-17 ATS as a favorite this season. Take advantage of the line move and grab the points here with the revenge-minded road team. 10* LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS |
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02-08-18 | Celtics +2 v. Wizards | Top | 110-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
TNT Early Top Play - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Thursday 10* Boston Celtics (+) @ Washington Wizards @ 8:05 ET - These teams have only met once this season and Washington got the win on Christmas Day at Boston. Of course the Wizards wanted that game badly as they were eliminated from the post-season by the Celtics in May. Now the revenge angle lies with Boston. With both teams entering this game off of losses that followed hot streaks, I am happy to be back the team with the extra motivation as well as with the much better defense. The Celtics are allowing just 43.2% from the field this season while the Wizards are allowing 45.7% from the field. Boston is also 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season and 12-2 ATS when playing with revenge (including 4-0 ATS with home loss revenge) this season. Washington is an ugly 3-6 ATS this season when they enter a game having played each of their 3 prior games on the road. The Wizards are also a poor 11-23 ATS this season when they are an underdog. Celtics roll on the road in this one. 10* BOSTON |
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02-07-18 | Rockets v. Heat +5 | Top | 109-101 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #704 Wednesday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (+) vs Houston Rockets @ 7:35 ET - The Rockets are off of a big win last night at Brooklyn but, don't be fooled by the final score, it was quite a battle and took a lot out of Houston. Now they are in the 2nd game of a back to back and this is a situation that has seen them go only 1-5 ATS this season. The Rockets are 1-5 ATS when playing the 2nd night of a back to back. Going from Brooklyn to Miami makes the travel situation even tougher. The Heat are in the midst of a 4-game losing streak but they truly have been "right there" in those games. In fact, Miami's last 5 losses have come by an average margin of just 3 points per game. With that said, there is substantial line value here with the generous points being offered on the home dog. Keep in mind, the Heat have played just 4 of their last 15 games at home so all the time away from home definitely caught up with them. Now, off of a home game and with another home game on deck, look for Miami to come up with a big performance here. The Heat lost the first match-up between these teams this season but they had swept them last season. Also, Miami is 25-10 ATS and SU when off of an upset loss as a favorite and they got upset at home by Orlando on Monday. Within that long-term run, note that this season's stats are 6-1 ATS and 7-0 SU in that situation! In other words, look for the Heat to bounce back huge in this spot. 10* MIAMI |
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02-06-18 | Wizards v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 102-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
TNT Early Top Play - Rickenbach NBA Game #512 Tuesday 10* Philadelphia 76'ers (-) vs Washington Wizards @ 8:05 ET - The Wizards are off of a big win last night at Indiana as they took advantage of the Pacers being without their entire starting backcourt. Both Victor Oladipo (illness) and Darren Collison (knee) missed last night's game versus Washington while both guards did play in the Pacers win versus the 76ers Saturday. This is helping drive some value here as the markets may not fully pick up on this and the fact is that these teams just faced the same team but at entirely different strength levels. Additionally, in terms of the set up here, the Sixers are off of a loss plus playing with 2 days off between games while the Wizards are off of a win and playing in a back to back. The rest edge plus motivating factor plus home court factor all in favor of Philadelphia here. Washington is a long-term 39-69 SU (and 45-63 ATS) the last 108 times they've faced a team that is averaging 106 points or more per game. The 76ers are 4-1 SU and ATS when facing a team from the Southeast Division this season. Also, Philadelphia is 19-4 ATS when, in the 2nd half of a season, they are facing a team this is averaging 106 points or more per game on the season. Wizards are playing 5th game in 8 nights. Sixers playing just 3rd game in 6 nights. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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02-04-18 | Hornets -6 v. Suns | Top | 115-110 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #811 Sunday 10* Top Play Charlotte Hornets (-) @ Phoenix Suns @ 3:05 ET - The Hornets lost their last visit to Phoenix so they won't overlook the Suns here. That is bad news for the home dog because Phoenix has lost 11 of its last 14 games and only 1 of their last 14 losses has come by less than 7 points. In other words, a Charlotte victory here is likely to equate to a Charlotte cover as well! The Hornets have won 4 of their last 6 road games and they are 8-3 ATS this season when they are off of a game where they scored 115 points or more. The past 2+ seasons combined Charlotte is 27-13 ATS in this situation. The Suns have lost 19 of their last 23 February games. Also, Phoenix is 15-47 SU in games against teams that are averaging 106 points or more per game. Considering those SU stats as well as the fact that 9 of the Hornets last 10 wins have come by 7 points or more, I'll gladly lay the number with the road fave in this one. Look for a road rout. 10* CHARLOTTE |
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02-04-18 | Blazers +2 v. Celtics | 96-97 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #807 Sunday 8* Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 12:05 ET - The Trail Blazers are off of an embarrassing loss at Toronto where they were crushed by 25 points. Prior to that game, Portland was 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in their previous 8 games. Look for the Blazers to bounce back as they are 4-0 SU the last 4 times they've lost a game by a double digit margin. Boston has been winning but the first two games of this homestand were against sub-par opponents. The Celtics are going to be challenged here which is why this line is set the way it is. Don't fall into a trap here. Boston at home to just win the game will entice the markets but the Celtics are 17-27 ATS when off of a game where they scored 115 points or more and I expect them to fall flat here as they absence of Kyrie Irving certainly hurts as well. Also, the road team won both meetings last season and the Trail Blazers make it 5 in a row SU when off of a loss by double digits. 8* PORTLAND |
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02-03-18 | Heat +3.5 v. Pistons | Top | 107-111 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher Top Play - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Saturday 10* Miami Heat (+) @ Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - The Pistons will be a popular choice here since they are at home and they were off yesterday while the Heat are in the 2nd game of a back to back. Also adding to the appeal of Detroit here is the fact that they now have Blake Griffin and they won their first game with him in the lineup. However, in that win over Memphis, the Grizzlies actually attempted 20 more field goals than the Pistons. In other words, Detroit was quite fortunate to escape with the two point win. The Pistons had lost 8 straight games before the back to back wins and they now face a Miami team that is very hungry off of back to back losses. Only one time this entire season have the Heat lost 3 straight games SU. Also, they have an ATS mark of 5-0 this season when they enter a game off of exactly 2 straight SU losses. The Pistons are on a 2-8 ATS run and they've allowed 111.3 points per game in their last 7 games. By comparison, the Heat have allowed just 92.4 points per game in their last 5 games. Miami is on a 15-8 ATS run in February games and the Heat are 24-16 ATS when playing the 2nd game of a back to back. Look for the Pistons to drop to 4-8 ATS this season when facing an opponent from the Southeast Division. 10* MIAMI |
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02-02-18 | Heat v. 76ers -4 | Top | 97-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass Top Play - Rickenbach NBA Game #810 Friday 10* Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Miami Heat @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers are happy to be back home after a 4-game road trip that ended with 3 straight losses. The Sixers have won 5 straight home games and all five victories have come by a margin of 6 points or more. Philadelphia is also 19-10 ATS including 6-2 ATS this season when they enter game having played each of their 3 prior games on the road. JJ Redick did return for the 76ers Wednesday and he scored 20 points in the loss at Brooklyn. He had missed 7 straight games so the Sixers are certainly happy to have him back on the floor. Jerryd Bayless is also back for Philly and he had made missed 6 straight games. Bayless is averaging 25 minutes per game this season so he and Redick being back certainly strengthens the 76ers. The home team has won each of the last 4 meetings between these teams and all 4 of those wins came by at least 7 points. The Heat come into this one having lost 5 of their last 9 games. Miami will struggle to keep up here as they are 6-12 SU this season in games against teams that average scoring 106 points or more per game. The Heat come into this one having averaged only 91.4 points per game their last 5 games. The Sixers are averaging 109.9 points in home games this season. Also, though the 76ers full season numbers on defense do not impress, they Heat are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games against teams that allow 106 points or more per game. Again, the high-scoring games just don't suit Miami and Philly takes advantage! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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01-30-18 | Cavs v. Pistons +6 | Top | 114-125 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
TNT Early Top Play - Rickenbach NBA Game #508 Tuesday 10* Detroit Pistons (+) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:05 ET - The Pistons just made the big trade for Blake Griffin and even though he won't be playing tonight it is already going to do wonders for Detroit in terms of their mental state here. Also, even though the final score from Sunday's match-up looks ugly (17 point loss), the Pistons were tied with the Cavaliers with only 7.5 minutes to go and that game was at Cleveland. With that said, and with the revitalized feelings after the trade, I expect a full 48-minute effort from Detroit here. Also, keep in mind, the Pistons had faced the Thunder the night before when they then faced the division rival Cavs on Sunday. This scheduling situation is a much better one for Detroit back at home. The Pistons are 15-9 ATS as an underdog this season. The Cavaliers are only 8-29 ATS as a favorite this season. Also, Cleveland is only 1-6 ATS this season when they won their prior game by a double digit margin. Long-term the Cavs are 34-66 ATS when facing a team with a losing record and that includes an ugly 4-18 ATS this season. 10* DETROIT |
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01-29-18 | Heat v. Mavs +2 | Top | 95-88 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #710 Monday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (+) vs Miami Heat @ 8:35 ET - The Mavericks have lost 3 straight but are in a good spot for a big home win. Couple that with the fact that the markets are backing the Heat early - line moved from a pick'em to a -2 on Miami - and you have a good set up for backing Dallas in this one. The Mavericks are hitting the road after this game (next home game not until February 10th) so they definitely will go "all out" tonight. As for the Heat, they're in the opposite type of situation because their focus is unlikely to be on this game. Miami is off of a divisional win over Charlotte and they have a big game on deck against LeBron James and Company in Cleveland on Wednesday. The Heat had lost 4 of 6 before Saturday's home win versus Charlotte. Also, Miami is only 8-14 ATS as a favorite this season. The Mavericks are 21-10 ATS when they enter a game having stayed under the total in each of their 3 prior games. That's because solid defense generally does lead to wins and the Mavs have held their last 4 opponents to 41.3% from the field. Also, the Mavericks are 20-11 ATS against teams with a winning record this season and they're sure to be at their best again tonight given the situation. 10* DALLAS |
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01-28-18 | 76ers +4 v. Thunder | 112-122 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #811 Sunday 8* Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 6:05 ET - The Thunder are off of a huge win yesterday at Detroit. However, not only is this a back to back spot for Oklahoma City, they're also playing their 3rd game in 4 days. Philadelphia is the much more rested team as they haven't played a back to back game yet this month. In fact today's game is the first game of their first back to back since the calendar hit 2018 as the 76ers do visit Milwaukee tomorrow. The Sixers are 9-3 SU and ATS in their last 12 games and they've been playing great defense. Philadelphia has held 12 of their last 15 opponents to 42.3% or less from the field. The Thunder, on the other hand, have allowed 46.4% or more in five straight games. Also, OKC is only 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games and only 15-27 ATS as a favorite this season. Philly is 7-3 ATS after a win by a double digit margin. The 76ers are also on a long-term 55-27 ATS run in non-conference action. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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01-27-18 | Magic v. Pacers -6 | 112-114 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA Game #504 Saturday 8* Indiana Pacers (-) vs Orlando Magic @ 7:05 ET - The Magic, though off of a home loss as a favorite, have been playing much better overall. However, Orlando is in the wrong place at the wrong time here. Indiana is at home and angry after a loss to Cleveland last night. The Pacers are 9-1 SU and ATS in their last 10 games versus the Magic and Indiana's last 6 wins have come by an average margin of 12.8 points per game with not a single victory by less than 8 points. With that said, I'll gladly lay the half-dozen points here. The Magic are on a 6-22 SU run and 8-20 ATS run in Saturday games. Orlando is also 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS when off of an upset loss as a favorite. The Pacers are 13-7 ATS as a favorite this season and 12-6 ATS when facing a team that allows 106 points or more per game. 8* INDIANA |
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01-26-18 | Lakers v. Bulls -4 | 108-103 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA Game #814 Friday 8* Chicago Bulls (-) vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:05 ET - The Lakers have won 3 straight games but all of those victories came in Los Angeles. Now LA is back on the road where they've lost 5 of their last 6. All 5 of those defeats came by at least 6 points and I like the hungry home team here to get the win and cover. Chicago is coming off of a disappointing road effort at Philly and should bounce right back here after back to back losses at New Orleans and Philadelphia to wrap up a 3-game road trip. That road trip began with a double digit win for the Bulls at Atlanta and that brought Chicago to 4-1 SU in their last 5 games. Also, prior to the loss to the Sixers, Chicago had covered 6 straight games. The Bulls are happy to be back home and have covered 10 of their last 13 games at the United Center. When off of a loss by 10 points or more, the Bulls are on an 8-3 ATS run. Also, Chicago is 5-2 ATS as a favorite this season. The Bulls are 7-2 ATS in Friday games this season. The Lakers are 9-22 SU (and 11-20 ATS) when they enter a game having played each of their 3 prior games at home. Los Angeles may be making improvements but don't lose sight of the fact that the Lakers are on a 20-83 SU run in road games including losing 15 of 21 this season. 8* CHICAGO |
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01-26-18 | Hawks +7 v. Hornets | 110-121 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA Game #801 Friday 8* Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - The Hornets recently lost a heartbreaker at home by a single point to the Heat. They have a shot at revenge tomorrow at Miami and, as a result, may not be giving the 14-33 Hawks their full attention. Atlanta will certainly be fully focused here as they lost by 18 points at Charlotte earliest this season and also are entering this game off of a home loss to Toronto. Prior to falling short versus the Raptors, the Hawks had won 4 of their last 6 SU and 5 of their last 7 ATS. Atlanta is 14-8 ATS when they enter a game having played each of their 3 prior games at home. The Hornets enter this game having failed to cover 3 straight games and they are 17-26 ATS when they enter a game off of an upset loss as a favorite. Charlotte also is only 4-9 SU in Friday games this season and the Hawks plus the big points are the way to go here. 8* ATLANTA |
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01-24-18 | Bulls +5.5 v. 76ers | Top | 101-115 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Wednesday 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls (+) @ Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:05 ET - The Bulls full season record does not look good but they have gone 15-9 SU the past month and a half. Also, Chicago enters this game having gone 20-5 ATS their last 25 games. The Bulls are off of a loss but have gone 8-3 ATS this season when off of a game where they scored 115 points or more. Chicago also has fared very well versus the 76ers in recent years and that includes a 4-0 SU mark in their last 4 visits to Philadelphia. Though the Sixers have also been playing well, they are without JJ Redick and TJ McConnell for this one plus Jerryd Bayless is listed as questionable. The short-handed rotation also has a big road trip on deck featuring 4 games in 6 days. The Sixers take on a Bulls team missing just one player, Kris Dunn, for this one. Chicago has covered 6 straight games and catch Philly off of an upset loss. While that may seem like a good spot to back the 76ers, Philadelphia is actually an ugly 1-8 ATS (2-7 SU) this season when off of an upset loss as a favorite. The Bulls are an incredible 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games and get the job done again here. 10* CHICAGO |
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01-23-18 | Kings +7 v. Magic | 105-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA 8* Sacramento Kings (+) @ Orlando Magic @ 7:05 ET - Orlando is off of a huge upset win at Boston Sunday. Now they host a poor Kings team which makes this the perfect spot to expect a letdown. It is hard to imagine the Magic being very hyped up for this game and their win over the Celtics was only the 3rd time in their last 34 games that they have won a game by more than 6 points. In other words, the odds of a big win and cover for Orlando are quite slim here. I know the Kings have underachieved and may seem like a tough team to back but, keep in mind, the Magic are 2-6 ATS when off of an upset win as an underdog. Also, the big key is Orlando is 2-12 ATS when facing a team with a losing record this season. As you can see, the Magic are already known for underestimating opponents with poor records. That said, off of an exciting win and with another Eastern Conference opponent (the Pacers) on deck, Orlando looks right past Sacramento tonight. The Kings are 15-10 ATS (and a surprising 14-11 SU) in Tuesday games the past 2+ seasons combined. They may not get the outright win here but they at least get the cover in this perfect spot for an upset! 8* SACRAMENTO |
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01-21-18 | Magic v. Celtics -10 | 103-95 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 0 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #802 Sunday 8* Boston Celtics (-) vs Orlando Magic @ 1:05 ET - The Celtics are playing their final home game before embarking on a 4-game West Coast road trip. Boston is off of rare back to back home losses as they just didn't seem to recover after the trip across the pond to London where they defeated the division rival Sixers. Boston now hosts an Orlando team that was down huge at Cleveland Thursday but then rallied late in the 1-point loss. That is offering some line value here because, simply put, the Magic are not a very good team. The Celtics, off of an upset loss as a favorite, will respond big here against Orlando. 4 of the last 5 times they've faced the Magic they've won by 15 points or more including a pair of blowout wins by 30 points. At home, Boston is an incredible 35-12 ATS versus Orlando! The Magic are only 11-19 ATS when playing with revenge this season. Overall, the Magic are 2-6 ATS in divisional games. The Celtics are 6-2 ATS this season when off of an upset loss as a favorite. Boston is also 37-22 ATS long-term against Southeast Division opponents. The Celtics roll here and cover the big number as they need a home win here as this will be their last time playing as a host until the final day of January. 8* BOSTON |
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01-20-18 | Bulls +2 v. Hawks | Top | 113-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Saturday 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls (+) @ Atlanta Hawks @ 5:05 ET - When something looks too easy it usually is anything but that. This is a prime example of that as Atlanta opened up at a pick'em at home and is now a 2-point favorite as people jump on board to fade a Chicago team that is just 6-16 SU on the road. The key to the value here is the Bulls have been red hot but yet are off of a SU loss. Chicago fell short against the defending champion Warriors Wednesday but the Bulls did the cover. It is now a perfect 4-0 ATS run for Chicago. Speaking of perfect runs, the Bulls are also 9-0 ATS this season in games against Southeast Division opponents. The Hawks are an ugly 1-7 SU against Southeast Division foes. While the Bulls are hungry off of a loss, Atlanta is off of back to back wins and feeling a little too good about themselves. This is the type of game where upsets happen and lets not forget that the Hawks had lost 5 of 6 before notching those back to back victories. The Bulls have had some recent success versus the Hawks as a host but they've fallen short in recent visits to Atlanta so there is plenty of motivation for Chicago here. The Hawks are an ugly 2-6 SU when off of an upset win as an underdog. The double perfect edges for the Bulls, noted above, combine for a 13-0 ATS mark. 10* CHICAGO |
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01-19-18 | Heat -3 v. Nets | Top | 95-101 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #803 Friday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (-) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 7:35 - The Heat are seeking revenge here for an embarrassing home loss to the Nets just 3 weeks ago. Miami was blown out by 24 in that ugly defeat versus Brooklyn and payback is on order here. Prior to that loss the Heat were 7-1 SU and ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Nets so they've certainly had their number. Also, Miami is 15-5 SU their last 20 games while Brooklyn has lost 14 of their last 19 games so you can clearly see this is a case of two teams going opposite directions. Also, the Nets have been held under 42.5% from the field in 6 of their last 7 games while the Heat have shot at least 46% from the field in 7 of their last 9 games. Miami is on an incredible 30-13 ATS run when playing with home loss revenge. Also, the Heat are 15-3 SU when facing a team with a losing record. That is a key here as this line is very small so there is a high percentage chance that any SU win is also an ATS win in this one! The Nets are 25-40 ATS when they enter a game on a SU losing streak of 3 or more games. Brooklyn is also on an ugly 23-86 SU run in games against teams with a winning record. 10* MIAMI |
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01-17-18 | Wizards +1.5 v. Hornets | 109-133 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Wednesday 8* Washington Wizards (+) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - I like catching the Wizards beginning a 5-game road trip and focusing on this as a chance to bounce back after a loss on Monday. I like fading the Hornets as they "let up" here knowing that this is the beginning of a 5-game homestand. Charlotte could get caught feeling a little too good about themselves after their big win Monday. The Hornets are 3-8 SU this season when off of a win by a double digit margin. Charlotte has lost 3 of 4 this season when off of an upset win as an underdog. The Wizards are 11-3 ATS as an underdog this season but one of those losses was a 5-point defeat at Charlotte in their only match-up with the Hornets so far this season. Time for payback here. 8* WASHINGTON |
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01-15-18 | Bucks +5 v. Wizards | 104-95 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #705 Monday 8* Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Washington Wizards @ 2:05 ET - The Bucks had their worst shooting performance in 5 years yesterday at Miami. After that game ended up an ugly loss, Milwaukee will respond in a big way today. Though the Wizards were off yesterday they are coming off of a crazy overtime win versus Brooklyn Saturday where they blew a 20+ point lead. The fact Washington hung on for the win in overtime while the Bucks are fired up off of a rare game where they were held under 80 points means my money is on Milwaukee is in this one! The Wizards are on an 0-5 ATS run. Washington is also an ugly 8-21 ATS as a favorite this season. 8* MILWAUKEE |
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01-14-18 | Bucks +2 v. Heat | 79-97 | Loss | -101 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #801 Sunday 8* Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Miami Heat @ 1:05 ET - The Bucks are fired up off of a double digit home loss to Golden State. The Heat are coming off of a 3-day break but had won 6 straight games prior to the time off. When a team is as hot as Miami was, time off is actually not helpful. Look for the break to cost the Heat their momentum and they are back home where they are just 5-13 ATS this season. Also, Miami is just 2-6 ATS against Central Division opponents, 3-7 ATS off of an upset win as an underdog, and 1-5 ATS in Sunday games. Milwaukee is 12-4 ATS when they enter a game off of 3 or more consecutive unders. Also, the Bucks are 6-2 SU this season when off of a double digit loss. After losing to the defending champs at home by 14 points they resume their hot shooting here and get back on track on the road. 8* MILWAUKEE |
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01-13-18 | Nets v. Wizards -10 | 113-119 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #508 Saturday 8* Washington Wizards (-) vs Brooklyn Nets @ 7:05 ET - The Nets rallied for a big upset win at Atlanta last night. Brooklyn wanted that game badly as there is some history there for coach Kenny Atkinson. Now the Nets go into the opposite situation. They are now the hunted instead of the hunter as the Wizards have revenge on their minds here. Washington has not only lost two straight to Brooklyn, the Wizards were thoroughly embarrassed in a 35 point loss in their most recent meeting which was just a few days before Christmas. The Wizards certainly have payback on their minds here and Washington has won their last two home meetings with the Nets by an average margin of 22 points per game! Brooklyn, prior to their upset win over the Hawks yesterday, had shot a combined 36.5% from the field in their 3 prior games! That said, I expect the hot-shooting Wizards to win this one in a rout tonight! Washington has averaged 116.8 points per game in their last 8 home games. The Nets had been held to 98 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games prior to last night's upset win. The Wizards are a long-term 26-13 (67%) ATS versus the Nets. Brooklyn is on a 13-25 ATS run in January games even though they've had some success so far this month. The Nets run into a brick wall tonight! 8* WASHINGTON |
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01-11-18 | Celtics v. 76ers +2.5 | 114-103 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #902 Thursday 8* Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Boston Celtics @ 3:05 ET (Game played in London) - This is a neutral site game even though the Sixers are listed as the home team. That said, why are the 33-10 Celtics listed as such a small favorite against a Philadelphia team that is improved but still only playing .500 ball on the season? Precisely! As you know, when something looks too good to be true it usually is and, in this case, the Celtics are priced this way with good reason! The 76ers are the play here! Though Boston has won 6 straight games Philly has won 4 straight games and 5 of their last 6. The Sixers blew out Detroit by 36 points in their most recent game. Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS this season when off of a win by a double digit margin. Also, the 76ers are 22-9 ATS in January games the past 2+ seasons. The Celtics are 17-23 ATS in divisional games the past 2+ seasons and I expect Boston to drop to 0-3 ATS this season when off of a game where they allowed 85 points or less. Off of a tight 2-point win at Brooklyn, look for the Celtics to fall short here as the Sixers have been shooting the ball much better than Boston has in recent games. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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01-10-18 | Heat +4.5 v. Pacers | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Wednesday 8* Miami Heat (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 7:05 ET - On the surface this seems like a bad spot for the Heat. However, upon closer inspection it is the Pacers in a "sandwich" spot in terms of their schedule while Miami is going to be highly motivated here. Even though this is a back to back spot for the Heat they are still charged up after their win in Toronto last night where the Raptors seemed more interested in picking fights than playing basketball. Ultimately Miami prevailed and now they are looking to avenge one of their worst home losses of the season. The Pacers took it to the Heat (thanks to red hot shooting) in Miami in November when they won by 25 points. Keep in mind this type of result is certainly the exception rather than the norm as the Heat had won 3 of the 4 prior meetings and the lone loss came by just 4 points. The Pacers "sandwich" spot is because this is a non-divisional game sandwiched between two big divisional games. First off Indiana beat Milwaukee (a team right above them in the division) Monday. Secondly, the Pacers have a home date with Cleveland (defending Eastern Conference champs and currently in 1st place in the division) on deck for Friday. The Pacers are 4-7 ATS this season when off of a win by double digits. The Heat are a long-term 29-13 ATS when playing a game with home loss revenge and, again, that home loss was ugly! Payback here. 8* MIAMI |
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01-09-18 | Heat +7.5 v. Raptors | 90-89 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Tuesday 8* Miami Heat (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 7:35 ET - Not only is this a back to back spot for the Raptors, not only did last night's win come in OT on the road at Brooklyn, Toronto also saw Kyle Lowry get hurt and exit the game very late. Early indications are back spasms but, even if the plays tonight, he won't be 100%. The Raptors are vulnerable here in the 2nd game of a back to back and, though Toronto has been hot, Miami has been very hot too and are definitely the more rested team here. The Heat have won 4 straight games and 11 of their last 15. This will be only the 4th game in the last 10 days for Miami. For Toronto, this is their 5th game in 9 days. The Raptors have held the upper hand in this series in recent meetings and that is particularly true in games played in Toronto. With that said, look for the Heat to take advantage of the situation here and get some revenge! The Raptors are just 1-2 in their last 3 back to backs and the lone win came by only 5 points. Strong shooting performances by Miami has helped lead the way to 4 straight overs. That holds significance here as the Heat have gone 9-3 SU when they enter a game on an over streak of 3 games or more. Toronto is 10-18 ATS (including 1-3 ATS this season) in Tuesday games. More of the same here. 8* MIAMI |
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01-07-18 | Jazz +4 v. Heat | 102-103 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #801 Sunday 8* Utah Jazz (+) @ Miami Heat @ 3:35 ET - The Jazz were held to just 74 points in their home loss to Miami two months ago. Shockingly, they had a 49-37 lead at halftime in that game! Scoring just 25 points at home in the entire second half of a game is something a team does not forget and payback is on order here! The 74 points that Utah scored against the Heat remains their season low and, after this game, the Jazz won't see Miami again until next season. In other words, Sunday "it is on!" and I expect a huge game from the road dog in this one. The road team has covered 4 of the last 5 meetings between these teams. Also, Miami is just 5-12 ATS at home this season plus the Heat are only 1-4 ATS in Sunday games this season. The Jazz are off of a loss at Denver but are 27-15 SU the past 3 seasons when off of a divisional game. 8* UTAH |
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01-05-18 | Wolves +4 v. Celtics | 84-91 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #805 Friday 8* Minnesota Timberwolves (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 7:05 ET - Perfect set up here with the Timberwolves off of a tight one point loss at Brooklyn on Wednesday while the Celtics are off of a huge double digit revenge win over the Cavaliers the very same night. Boston can't help but be a little flat here after that key victory while Minnesota comes into this one very hungry. Also, Minny is playing this game with double revenge as they lost both match-ups to the Celtics last season. Additionally, Minnesota has not lost back to back games since prior to Thanksgiving. This team has done a great job of bouncing back off of a loss and I expect them to do it again here. 11-3 SU is the Timberwolves record when off of a loss this season and here we are getting them plus a few points so I'll gladly take it. Boston is 8-13 ATS when they enter a game having played each of their prior games at home and this is definitely a spot in which they are likely to be complacent after the huge win over LeBron James and company. 8* MINNESOTA |
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01-03-18 | Rockets v. Magic +8 | 116-98 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #706 Wednesday 8* Orlando Magic (+) vs Houston Rockets @ 7:05 ET - The Rockets already were struggling and now things went from bad to worse with James Harden's hamstring injury. Houston had lost 5 straight games before their non-covering multiple overtime win over the Lakers on Sunday. That ATS loss dropped the Rockets to 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games. The Magic are off of a tough non-cover at Brooklyn Monday as they were as high as a 2-point dog but blew a late lead and lost the game by 3. Orlando actually had 14 more field goal attempts than the Nets in that game but poor shooting did them in. Look for them to bounce back here. The last 4 times that Orlando has been held under 41% from the field, only once have they lost their next game by more than 7 points. Look for the Magic to stay tight with the wounded Rockets tonight as it certainly helps that Orlando is at home for this one too. Also, Houston has a huge home game with Golden State on deck for tomorrow night! The Magic are a surprising 3-1 ATS and SU against Southwest Division opponents this season and certainly could catch the Rockets looking ahead here. Also, Houston is an ugly 6-12 ATS when off of a game where they scored 130 points or more. 8* ORLANDO |
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01-01-18 | Magic +2 v. Nets | 95-98 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Monday 8* Orlando Magic (+) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 7:35 ET - Both these teams are hungry as they are coming off losses. However, the big difference is that the Nets played yesterday while the Magic have been off since Saturday. That is certainly significant as Brooklyn is just 1-6 SU this season when in the 2nd game of a back to back and their record in this situation the past 3 seasons combined is 4-32 SU! Definitely not a good spot to lay the points with the Nets! Look for the rested Magic to get the W here as they also seek revenge for losses in each of their last two visits to Brooklyn. Look for the Nets to drop to 6-30 SU when off of a divisional game. 8* ORLANDO |
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12-31-17 | 76ers v. Suns +3.5 | Top | 123-110 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
Non-Conf Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Game #815 Sunday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns (+) vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 8:05 ET - Phoenix has been a different team since guard Devin Booker has returned. Overall, the Suns have won 5 of their last 7 games and they now host a 76ers team that is off of a big road win at Denver last night but that had previously lost 10 of its last 12 games. With Joel Embiid slated to play tonight for the Sixers and with this being a revenge game for Philly, the line has been skewed toward the 76ers here. However, the Suns as a solid home dog here is a great value. Phoenix has covered 10 of its last 14 games and they are playing just their 2nd game in 5 nights. The Suns will have very fresh legs here. The 76ers are on a 4-13 ATS run and are playing their 5th straight road game. Not only is this spot a back to back for Philadelphia, they also are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Philly is playing this game with home loss revenge but they are 15-55 SU in this situation the past 2+ seasons. Also, the Sixers are 0-4 SU and ATS this season when playing the 2nd night of a back to back. The past 2+ seasons the 76ers long-term record in this situation (2nd of B2B) is 6-35 SU! The Suns are 5-2 ATS when off of a divisional game and also 5-2 ATS this season versus Atlantic Division opponents. 10* PHOENIX |
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12-27-17 | Mavs v. Pacers -6 | 98-94 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #704 Wednesday 8* Indiana Pacers (-) vs Dallas Mavericks @ 7:05 ET - Nice set up here as the Pacers got blasted by 24 at Detroit last night while the Mavericks got a home dog upset win over the Raptors last night. Last night's results plus the fact that the Pacers lost at Dallas in their most recent meeting last December means that Indiana will prove to the be the hungrier team here. The Mavs had lost 9 of 11 prior to last night's win. The Pacers had won 7 of 10 prior to last night's loss. The Mavericks are 3-9 ATS this season in games against teams that score an average of 106 points or more per game. The Pacers are 11-2 SU and 9-4 ATS in games where they are the favorite. Lay it! 8* INDIANA |
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12-26-17 | Jazz +6 v. Nuggets | Top | 83-107 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator Top Play - Rickenbach NBA Tuesday 10* Utah Jazz (+) @ Denver Nuggets @ 9:05 ET - Of course this is a revenge spot for the Nuggets as they lost at Utah by 29 in late November. However, is Denver really thinking that much about that here? The fact is that the Nuggets are off of a win over the NBA Champion Warriors in their final game before the NBA break. Also, Denver has another revenge game (at Minnesota) for tomorrow night and the Nuggets most recent home loss was to the Timberwolves just last week. You can truly see why Denver may not be fully focused here and they are going to have their hands full with a Utah team coming off of home loss to Oklahoma City. The Jazz are fired up as they've endured a tough stretch recently that has seen them lose 8 of their last 10 games. The best thing that could have happened for Utah was a break in the action and I look for the Jazz to come out renewed and refreshed after the Christmas break. As for the Nuggets, they are 1-9 ATS this season when off of a win by a double digit margin and that was a huge road win at Golden State on Saturday. Also, Denver is 12-30 SU long-term when off of an upset win as an underdog! As for the Jazz, they are a long-term 27-13 SU when off of a divisional game and, the fact they lost that divisional match-up at home against the Thunder means extra hunger for the road dog in this one. 10* UTAH |
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12-26-17 | Pacers +2 v. Pistons | 83-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Tuesday 8* Indiana Pacers (+) @ Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - The Pistons are off of a win but previously they had lost 8 of their last 11 games. Detroit has failed to cover 8 of its last 12 games. The Pacers have been the much stronger team of late as they've won 7 of their last 10 games. Also, one of those 3 defeats was a home loss to the Pistons less than 2 weeks ago. Indiana will be ready to get revenge here against a division rival. The Pacers were on an 8-2 SU and ATS run in this series prior to that loss. In other words, Indiana has had Detroit's number in recent seasons and I look for that dominance to resume here. The Pistons have been held to 43.2% or less from the field in 8 of their last 10 games. The Pacers have shot 45.8% or better from the field in 10 of their last 15 games. Indiana is 9-4 ATS when playing with revenge this season including 4-1 ATS when playing with home loss revenge. Detroit is 6-10 SU this season in games against teams with a winning record. 8* INDIANA |
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12-25-17 | Cavs v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 92-99 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator Top Play - Rickenbach NBA Game #704 Monday 10* Golden State Warriors (-) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 3:05 ET - The Warriors are without Stephen Curry of course. However, the line has gone from as high as -7.5 to as low as -4.5 as of gameday morning and the betting markets are treating this as if the odds makers weren't aware that Curry was out when they set the line. The fact is that this is great line value on Golden State at home and laying a small number. The Warriors just had their 11 game winning streak snapped on Saturday and likely were caught looking ahead to this game. The fact is that Golden State has been playing better defense than Cleveland. The Warriors are allowing an average of just 98 points per game their last 8 games. The Cavaliers are allowing an average of 109 points per game their last 6 games. Opponents are shooting 49% from the field in the Cavs last 5 games. The Warriors are allowing just 41% from the field their last 8 games. Defense is a big deal in games like this. Yes the Cavs want revenge from last year's finals but Golden State will be up for this game on Christmas Day, particularly after being held to just 81 points on Saturday on their home floor! Cleveland is just 3-11 ATS after scoring 115 points or more in their prior game. The Warriors are 30-5 SU (including 6-0 SU this season) when off of an upset loss as a favorite. GS was embarrassed on Saturday and they'll respond BIG here. 10* GOLDEN STATE |
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12-25-17 | 76ers +3 v. Knicks | 105-98 | Win | 100 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Monday 8* Philadelphia 76'ers (+) @ New York Knicks @ 12:05 ET - Horrible stretch for the Sixers has seen them lose 11 of 14. Also, Philadelphia is on an ugly 2-12 ATS run. That said, why did they open up such a small dog for this early Christmas match-up at New York? Exactly! Don't be fooled here as this has the makings of an upset. The Knicks are 15-5 SU and ATS in home games this season and yet they opened up as a 1 point favorite here even though the Sixers have endured their roughest stretch of the season! It doesn't make sense does it? Precisely! This is another example of when it pays to be a contrarian. The last 4 meetings between these teams have been decided by a total of just 6 points. In other words, even at only 3 points, this is a fantastic underdog value. The Sixers are ticked off and ready to respond here after their worst defeat in awhile. Most of the 76ers losses had been tight but they got blown out at Toronto on Saturday and they'll make up for it here. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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12-19-17 | Kings +8.5 v. 76ers | 101-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Tuesday 8* Sacramento Kings (+) @ Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:05 ET - Tough scheduling spot for the Sixers. Yes, Joel Embiid rested last night (he didn't even make the trip to Chicago) but the rest of his 76ers teammates gave all they could in a loss to the Bulls. Now off of back to back tight losses (lost in crazy multi-OT game to OKC Friday), Philadelphia is in a tough spot here. The Kings are playing for just the 2nd time since Thursday while the Sixers are playing for the 2nd time in 2 nights! Sacramento, like Philly, is off of back to back losses but the Kings are the more rested team and they haven't lost 3 straight in over a month. The Sixers have lost 6 of their last 7 and they are on a 2-9 ATS run! By the way, Philadelphia has not won a game by more than 6 points in over 3 weeks! I'll gladly grab the generous points being offered here. The Kings are 14-7 ATS in Tuesday games and, even though the Sixers are in bounce back mode, they are 0-6 ATS this season when off of an upset loss as a favorite. 8* SACRAMENTO |
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12-18-17 | Celtics v. Pacers +3 | 112-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #704 Monday 8* Indiana Pacers (+) vs Boston Celtics @ 7:05 ET - The Pacers are in a back to back spot here but one could argue they have quite a few edges here, including scheduling. Even though it is a back to back for Indiana they are at home playing with revenge and they catch the Celtics playing their 6th game in 9 days. Also, Boston is off of a win but has not won back to back games the past two weeks. The Pacers have revenge from a 10 point loss to the Celtics in late November where Indiana blew a 13 point 3rd quarter lead. The key to the rematch is that the Pacers will have Victor Oladipo and they did not have him in the first meeting. Indiana is 8-4 SU and ATS when playing with revenge this season and 3-1 SU and ATS when playing with home loss revenge. Boston is off of a win and cover at Memphis but they have definitely cooled off since their red hot start to the season. Prior to the win over the Grizzlies, the Celtics had failed to cover 5 of their last 6 games. The Pacers have won and covered 11 of their last 16 games and they continue their hot run here! 8* INDIANA |
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12-17-17 | Cavs +2 v. Wizards | 106-99 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #807 Sunday 8* Cleveland Cavaliers (+) @ Washington Wizards @ 6:05 ET - Everyone is taking Washington here as the line has made a big move. I understand this is a back to back for Cleveland but here is no denying that LeBron James and company are in the zone right now! The Cavaliers win versus the Jazz last night makes them 17-1 their last 18 games and I am happy to take them as a dog here after they opened up as the favorite. The Cavs are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS as an underdog this season! The Wizards are only 5-12 ATS as a favorite and I find it hard to trust a team that is only 6-5 SU against teams with a winning record this season. By comparison, the Cavaliers are 7-3 both SU and ATS against teams with a winning record on the season. Washington is only 4-9 ATS in home games this season and they are getting too much respect here. The Wizards are off of back to back wins but faced the struggling Grizzlies and Clippers. Prior to those two wins Washington had lost 8 of 13. Also, the Wizards are on a 6-9 ATS run and now taking on the hottest team in the league. 8* CLEVELAND |
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12-16-17 | Clippers v. Heat -6 | Top | 85-90 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
Top Play Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #508 Saturday 10* Miami Heat (-) vs Los Angeles Clippers @ 8:05 ET - The Heat and Clippers are both in a back to back spot here but Miami certainly has the advantage of being at home while the Clips are playing their 3rd straight road game and have a big Western Conference match-up with the Spurs at San Antonio on deck. The Clippers have covered 4 straight games but they've done it with some smoke and mirrors as they were held under 38.9% from the field for the 2nd time in 3 games yesterday. As for the Heat, they have shot 50.5% from the field in their last 5 games. The Clippers have a number of injury issues while the Heat have certainly had to grow use to playing without Hassan Whiteside so that adjustment has already taken place as he has missed a lot of time this season. The Heat have played the tougher schedule on the season which makes their superior record even that much better than the Clippers losing record. By the way, Miami is 9-0 SU (and 7-2 ATS) in games against teams with a losing record this season. Also, the Heat are on a 21-13 ATS run when playing the 2nd game of a back to back. Los Angeles is 0-4 SU (and 1-3 ATS) this season when playing the 2nd night of a back to back. The Clips are 3-11 SU as an underdog this season and that holds plenty of significance here as the Heat have failed to get the cover just ONCE (and that was by HALF A POINT) when they get a SU win. In other words, when the Heat have won, odds are strong they also cover. More of the same here. 10* MIAMI |
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12-13-17 | Blazers +3 v. Heat | Top | 102-95 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #709 Wednesday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Miami Heat @ 7:35 ET - The Trail Blazers are hungry as they have lost 5 straight games. Portland has played better in their last 2 games and covered both of those. In fact, the Blazers are now 16-8 ATS when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. Miami is off of back to back SU wins but they are 0-4 ATS when they enter a game on a winning streak of 2 or more games this season. Also, the Heat are also 0-3 ATS this season when they enter a game on an ATS winning streak of 2 games or more. Miami has not fared well at home this season as they've covered just 2 of 11 games as a host this season! The Heat were a small dog at Memphis Monday and they got the outright win. Miami is 1-4 ATS this season when off of an upset win as an underdog. The Heat have covered only 3 of 10 as a favorite this season. Miami also has a divisional game on deck at Charlotte and could look right past this non-conference match-up. Portland will absolutely not look past the Heat here as the Blazers are hungry to end their longest losing streak of the season. The road team is 24-15 ATS long-term in the meetings between these teams and the hungry road dog gets the cash again here! 10* PORTLAND |
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12-13-17 | Thunder +1.5 v. Pacers | 100-95 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #705 Wednesday 8* Oklahoma City Thunder (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 7:05 ET - The Thunder have failed to cover 9 games in a row and are 3-10 SU away from home this season while Indiana is 10-4 SU at home. That said, how is that the odds makers opened this one up at Oklahoma City -1? Exactly! Don't be fooled ladies and gentlemen. The odds makers know what they are doing and yet the betting markets are already helping us with the line move now having the Pacers as the favorite by 1.5 points. Of course this is the return of Paul George to Indiana and you know Russell Westbrook and all of his Thunder teammates are going to do everything they can to help the return to be a victorious one! Even though OKC defeated Indiana in late October in the first meeting between these teams, George only played 19 minutes due to foul trouble and ended up fouling out in just 19 minutes of action. Even with that, the Thunder still won that game by 18 points and they are hungry again tonight for another big win due to having lost 7 of their last 12 games overall. The Pacers are off of a big win and that holds significance here as they are 2-5 ATS when off of a win by a double digit margin this season. Indiana is also on an 8-16 ATS run against Northwest Division opponents. OKC is off of an ugly loss and they are 20-11 SU and 19-12 ATS when off of a loss by double digits. Also, the Thunder are 3-0 SU this season (30-13 SU long-term) when off of a game where they allowed 115 points or more. Look for the Thunder to improve to 5-1 SU against Central Division foes on the season. 8* OKLAHOMA CITY |
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12-12-17 | Nuggets +7 v. Pistons | 103-84 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Tuesday 8* Denver Nuggets (+) @ Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - The Pistons have lost 6 straight games. Detroit is also an ugly 4-9 SU this season when facing teams with a winning record. We're getting line value here with the Nuggets because they haven't performed well on the road overall. I am glad to grab the big points being offered with a Denver team that is 8-4 SU in non-conference games this season. The Nuggets are also 5-1 SU this season after allowing 115 points or more and 7-1 SU this season when off of a loss by a double digit margin. Denver will be fired up after Sunday's loss at Indiana and the Nuggets have been shooting the ball much better than the Pistons. Detroit has been held under 44.4% from the field in 6 straight games and under 41.5% in four straight games! 8* DENVER |
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12-12-17 | Lakers +3.5 v. Knicks | Top | 109-113 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
ESPN Top Play - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Tuesday 10* Los Angeles Lakers (+) @ New York Knicks @ 7:05 ET - The Lakers are off of back to back wins plus playing for just the 3rd time in 9 days! Fresh legs and confidence are both on the side of Los Angeles in this one. They've had 2 full off days since winning by double digits at Charlotte Saturday. As for the Knicks, they barely hung on for a tight win Sunday versus Atlanta and they now will be playing for the 3rd time in just 4 days! Certainly New York's situation is much different than the favorable scheduling situation of LA here. Also, the Knicks have a divisional game against city rival Brooklyn on deck! NY is 1-4 ATS this month. Also, the Knicks are on a 26-44 SU run against Western Conference teams and also 13-33 SU run against teams that average 106 points or more per game. The Lakers are 42-29 ATS against Eastern Conference foes in recent seasons. Also, this season, Los Angeles is 3-0 ATS when off of a win by a double digit margin and LA is also 4-1 ATS when they enter a game on an under streak of 3 games or more. 10* LOS ANGELES LAKERS |
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12-11-17 | Heat +1.5 v. Grizzlies | 107-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #703 Monday 8* Miami Heat (+) @ Memphis Grizzlies @ 8:05 ET - Even though the Heat are off of a game at Mexico City Saturday, this will be just the 3rd game in the past 8 days for Miami. They do have fresh legs. As for Memphis, they will be playing their 3rd game in just 4 days and things have not been going well for the Grizzlies. Memphis has lost 3 straight games and 14 of their last 15 games! The Heat are a small dog here and that is certainly noteworthy as they are a PERFECT 7-0 SU this season in games against teams with a losing record. Memphis is 1-7 SU and ATS in their games against teams with a losing record this season. 8* MIAMI |
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12-10-17 | Hawks v. Knicks -5 | Top | 107-111 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
Situational Slam - Rickenbach NBA Game #512 Sunday 10* Top Play New York Knicks (-) vs Atlanta Hawks @ 7:35 ET - Both teams are in a back to back but the Knicks will prove to the be hungrier team. The Hawks are off of a home win (albeit against an Orlando team that doesn't travel well) while New York is off of a tight 2-point road loss at Chicago and will be ready to respond here. The Knicks also have additional motivation as they lost at Atlanta earlier this season. Also, New York lost each of the final 3 meetings versus the Hawks last season by an average margin of only 2.7 points per defeat. Time for payback here and Atlanta is 0-5 SU in the 2nd game of back to backs this season. Also, the Hawks are 0-4 SU this season when off of a game where they scored 115 points or more. The Knicks are 6-1 SU (and ATS!) as a favorite this season. Also, New York is 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS in their home games this season. The Knicks are hungry after the way yesterday's game ended and we'll see the response here. 10* NEW YORK KNICKS |
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12-09-17 | Rockets -9 v. Blazers | Top | 124-117 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
Dominator Top Play - Rickenbach NBA Saturday 10* Houston Rockets (-) @ Portland Trail Blazers @ 10:05 ET - The Rockets lost by 10 in their last visit to Portland so it is time for a little payback here. The Blazers are hurt (literally) by the ankle injury to Jusuf Nurkic here as he is likely to miss this game and he is tied for the team lead in rebounds, leads the team in blocked shots, and is also their 3rd leading scorer. Portland has lost 3 straight games and the average margin of defeat has been 11 points even though all 3 games were at home. That said, I don't see them shutting down a Rockets team that has won 14 of 15 games! What has been most impressive about this win streak for Houston is that only 1 of those 14 wins has come by less than 11 points. The Rockets aren't just winning, they are dominating teams! That is why this has been an 11-4 ATS run for Houston and I don't see them slowing down here. They remember what happened in their last visit to Portland. The Trail Blazers also have the defending champion Warriors on deck! Though the Blazers are off of an upset loss as a favorite that doesn't mean they'll bounce back here. In fact, Portland has just 1 cover in 7 games when playing in that situation. The Rockets are a stellar 9-3 ATS on the road this season. 10* HOUSTON |
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12-09-17 | Wizards v. Clippers +2.5 | 112-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Saturday 8* Los Angeles Clippers (+) vs Washington Wizards @ 3:35 ET - The Los Angeles Clippers have been struggling as they've been beaten by the injury bug (Patrick Beverley and Blake Griffin). However, they have a couple of key edges here against the Wizards. The Clips have the home court edge and they also catch Washington playing an early game after enjoying the Friday "night life" of LA. Even though the Wizards have won 2 of 3 on this road trip, those victories came against the slumping Blazers and a bad Suns team. With the Clippers playing just the 2nd time in 6 days and the Wizards playing for the 4th time in 6 days (each game in a different city), this is a big scheduling edge for LA. Of course we get line value here with the Clips as a home dog due to their recent struggles as well as the corresponding injury situation. The Clippers are 19-4 SU against Southeast Division opponents. The Wizards are 5-8 ATS as a favorite this season. 8* LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS |
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12-08-17 | Cavs v. Pacers +3.5 | Top | 102-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
Earliest Cash Top Play - Rickenbach NBA Friday 10* Indiana Pacers (+) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:05 ET - The Pacers just played a Bulls team that has the longest losing streak in the NBA. Clearly Indiana was looking ahead to this match-up with the team that has the longest winning streak in the NBA. After barely getting by the Bulls (and with Myles Turner listed as questionable due to his knee) we are getting a nice home dog spot here on the Pacers. Indiana is 8-4 SU at home this season and 65-34 SU at home the past 3 seasons combined. Keep in mind, the Cavs (even with their current hot streak) have been money burners at the betting window as a fave. Cleveland is 4-15 ATS as a favorite this season! Also, the Cavaliers are on an ugly 16-28 ATS run versus division opponents. The Pacers are a fantastic 27-13 ATS their last 40 versus divisional foes. Indiana has failed to get the cash only ONCE in their last SIX games versus the Cavs. There is a reason the odds makers but such a low number on the favorite here even though they've won 13 in a row. Don't be fooled by it. Upset time here. 10* INDIANA |
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12-07-17 | Lakers v. 76ers -7.5 | Top | 107-104 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
TNT Explosion Top Play - Rickenbach NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76'ers (-) vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:05 ET - The Lakers have lost 5 straight and 10 of their last 13. Also, 7 of those 10 losses have come by 8 or more points. When the Lakers lose (often) they generally lose big and the Sixers are in a good spot to take the Lakers behind the woodshed and lay the lumber on Los Angeles! Philadelphia is angry off of a home loss to Phoenix where they were lethargic from the opening tip onward. The 76'ers are 3-1 SU and ATS when off of a game where they allowed 115 points or more this season. Also, the past 3 seasons combined, Philly is 14-5 ATS in games with a posted total of 220 points or more and also 50-21 ATS in non-conference games including a fantastic 19-7 ATS in games against Pacific Division opponents. The Lakers are 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS in road games this season. The Sixers, off of a loss and with a road trip on deck that will take them away from Philly for a week, are going to make the most of this home game. The 76ers have had two full off days since the loss to the Suns so anger and frustration has built up and is ready to be unleashed on the slumping Lakers. Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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12-06-17 | Heat v. Spurs -7.5 | Top | 105-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
Top Play Dominator - Rickenbach NBA 10* San Antonio Spurs (-) vs Miami Heat @ 8:35 ET - The Spurs are always up for the Heat. Of course the back to back battles in 2013 and 2014 and the fact these non-conference foes only meet twice a season helps make these match-ups special. The Spurs are at home and getting healthier. The Heat are on the road and continuing to struggle without Hassan Whiteside. Miami has lost 3 of 4 SU and ATS while allowing opponents to hit a ridiculous 53.3% from the field. The Spurs have failed to cover their last 3 home games but the margin those 3 games failed to cover by was a COMBINED 2.5 points and San Antonio had started the season 8-2 ATS in home games! In other words, a big home win for the Spurs would not surprise in the least in terms of this match-up. Each of Miami's last 7 losses have come by at least 9 points and the average margin of those 7 defeats was 18.3 points. I sense another blowout here as the Heat also could be distracted by their Mexico City trip on deck as they face Brooklyn there on Saturday. The Spurs are a long-term 24-9 ATS in December games and 90-52 ATS in games against teams from the Southeast Division. Look for Miami to drop to 4-8 ATS this season in their games against teams with a winning record. 10* SAN ANTONIO |
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12-06-17 | Hawks +6.5 v. Magic | 106-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Wednesday NBA 8* Atlanta Hawks @ Orlando Magic @ 7:05 ET - Sure the Hawks have had their share of struggles this season but anytime I can get significant points like this and go against a team (Magic) that has lost 11 of 13 straight-up, I am in! Only ONE time in their last 13 games has Orlando won a game by more than 5 points. As for the Hawks, they are 8-2 ATS the last 10 times they have allowed more than 105 points in a game and they're angry again here as they are off of an ugly 110-90 loss to Brooklyn. The Magic were held by the Hornets to just 94 points in a 10 point loss on Monday. Orlando is on a 2-7 ATS run when they are off of a game where they were held to 105 points or less! Also, this is the 3rd game in 4 nights for the Magic while the Hawks are playing for just the third time this month. Atlanta does have revenge from a 19 point loss at Orlando in their most recent match-up. While it is true that the Hawks have not played well this season, the Magic aren't great either and are known for playing down to the level of their competition. Orlando is 18-31 ATS against teams allowing 106 points or more per game. Also, the Magic are 2-5 ATS (and SU!) this season against teams with a losing record. 8* ATLANTA |
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12-02-17 | Pistons +5 v. 76ers | 103-108 | Push | 0 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Saturday 8* Detroit Pistons (+) @ Philadelphia 76'ers @ 7:35 ET - The Sixers are off of a loss and they catch the Pistons playing the 2nd night of a back to back. That said, on the surface, this looks like a great spot to back Philly. However, digging deeper shows there is actually great value with Detroit in this match-up. The Pistons are fired up after what happened last night. They were up by 6 points at the half at Washington but then began the 2nd half like they already had the game won. No energy, little effort, and Detroit got outscored by 20 points in the 3rd quarter. Of course that was the difference in the game and the Pistons now come into this game angry and ticked off. Remember they also already had extra motivation for this game because the 76ers beat them in Detroit early this season in a late October match-up. Now the Pistons get a shot at revenge and, keep in mind, the Pistons have won each of their last 3 visits to Philly. In fact the road team has won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these teams and the average margin in the last 4 games has been 19 points. With that said, don't be surprised if this one turns into a road rout! Before last night's loss, the Pistons had won 12 of 16 since the home loss to the Sixers earlier this season. Detroit is 7-2 ATS as an underdog this season. Philadelphia is just 7-23 SU (and has covered just 33%) in their last 30 December games. 8* DETROIT |
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11-30-17 | Cavs v. Hawks +8 | Top | 121-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
Earliest Cash Top Play - Rickenbach NBA 10* Atlanta Hawks (+) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:35 ET - The Cavaliers are a popular choice here because they have revenge from a tight home loss versus the Hawks earlier this season. However, Atlanta is always up for facing LeBron James and Company because they got swept out of the playoffs by the Cavs in the 2015 Eastern Conference finals and then again were swept in the 2016 Eastern Conference semifinals. Of course when it is playoff time and every game is critical things are different. However, in a regular season situation lets not forget all the distractions for road teams in Atlanta. Yes, this is a city known for its nightlife catering to visiting players! In other words it is much different from a road game in say, Salt Lake City Utah! The point is that maybe it should come as no surprise that the Hawks have played the Cavs tough including here at home. The last two meetings here saw Atlanta win one outright and lose the other one by just 5 points. Also, the Hawks have won each of their last 3 visits to Cleveland so there is something about facing Atlanta that seems to bring down the Cavs level of play a notch or two in regular season action! I know this Hawks team is a bad team this season but, off of a total beatdown at home against the Raptors, they will respond here. Atlanta had previously won 2 of its last 4 home games and the home game prior to that was a loss by just 3 points to the Celtics! After losing by 34 points to Toronto, the angry Hawks are going to hang around in this one and they are expected to have forward Luke Babbitt back for this one. The Cavaliers are on a winning streak of 9 games but they have gone just 3-12 ATS as a favorite this season and Cleveland is also only 2-7 ATS this season against teams with a losing record. This is the Hawks finale of a 4-game homestand and they are 11-6 (SU and ATS) when they enter a game having played each of their three prior games at home. 10* ATLANTA |
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11-29-17 | Heat -1 v. Knicks | 86-115 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 51 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA Wednesday 8* Miami Heat (-) @ New York Knicks @ 7:35 ET - The Heat got beaten so badly in the first half in Cleveland last night that their starters were able to get quite a bit of rest. That said, this is a good spot to back an angry Miami team as they're fired up off of that loss and the 5 starters averaged only 24 minutes of playing time against the Cavaliers. The Knicks have lost 3 straight games. The Heat had won 3 straight games before losing to the Cavs. The road team has won 6 of the last 7 meetings between these teams SU and ATS. Even though New York looks better this season they have still gone just 3-5 against teams with a winning record. The past 3 seasons combined the Knicks are an ugly 27-65 against teams with a winning record. 8* MIAMI |
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11-29-17 | Thunder -5.5 v. Magic | 108-121 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA Wednesday 8* Oklahoma City Thunder (-) @ Orlando Magic @ 7:05 ET - After the huge highly coveted win for Russell Westbrook's Thunder over Kevin Durant's Warriors last week, Oklahoma City fell flat versus Detroit and lost outright as an 8.5 point favorite. That wasn't a huge surprise. What was a huge surprise is that OKC followed it up by shooting just 36.2% at Dallas and losing to the Mavericks as a 6 point favorite. Now, after that ugly performance made it back to back losses for the Thunder, you can expect a huge response tonight! The road team covered both meetings between these teams last year and Oklahoma City has covered each of their last two trips to Orlando. I look for the road dominance to continue here. The Magic come into this game having lost 9 straight games. The average margin of defeat has been 15 points and none of those 9 losses came by less than 5 points. That makes this small road chalk the way to go in this one! Orlando is 18-27 ATS when off of a game where they allowed 115 points or more. The Thunder are 19-10 ATS when off of a loss by a double digit margin. 8* OKLAHOMA CITY |
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11-28-17 | Heat +5 v. Cavs | 97-108 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
NBA TV Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Tuesday 8* Miami Heat (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:05 ET - A lot of line value here as the Cavaliers are in a back to back spot. Even though Cleveland has won 8 straight games, their schedule has been quite friendly of late. Now the Cavs are in what is their 4th back to back spot so far this season. In the first 3 they have not only lost all 3, they were favored by an average margin of 10 points and yet they lost each game outright by an average margin of 15 points! That means the Cavs are 0-3 ATS in this spot this season with an average cover for the opposition by a 25 point margin! As you can see, the Heat not only have a great shot at the cover here but also an outright victory by a sizable margin. Cleveland is off of a huge win at Philly last night but the 76ers did outrebound them and had 10 more shots from the field in the game. Philadelphia just simply couldn't hit their shots last night while the Cavaliers rolled. Cleveland is 0-9 ATS at home this season and 2-12 ATS as a favorite. Eventually some of these numbers will certainly start to reverse but this isn't the time for any changes to begin. It is a back to back spot with travel involved for the Cavs and this is the same situation they have struggled in all 3 times this season. Miami comes into this game off of a day of rest yesterday and they've won 3 straight games heading into this match-up. Also, the Heat have won each of their last 3 meetings with Cleveland as well. Miami is 16-9 ATS when on a winning streak of 3 games or more and the Heat get the job done again here. 8* MIAMI |
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11-27-17 | Nets +17 v. Rockets | 103-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Monday 8* Brooklyn Nets (+) @ Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - Just too many points here. The Rockets, of course, are the better team and are at home but the Nets are quietly playing extremely competitive basketball. Brooklyn won at Memphis last season and, despite playing a number of quality teams like Portland (twice), Cleveland, Golden State, and Denver, the Nets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games. Also, Brooklyn has only lost 1 game this entire season by more than 13 points and that was exactly a month ago to the day in October and now the Nets are getting 17 here. It's just too much. The Rockets don't have any incentive to run up the score here. If anything, Brooklyn is the more motivated team as they lost at home by 25 to Houston when they most recently met (back in January). Note that the Nets had covered each of the prior 3 meetings. Also, yesterday was just the 2nd time in 5 games that Brooklyn didn't shoot over 50% from the field. The Nets held the Grizzlies to just 88 points and they are 5-1 ATS when off of a game where they allowed 90 points or less. Also, Brooklyn is a perfect 7-0 ATS this season in games against teams that score 106 points or more per game. The Nets also are 7-1 ATS in games against teams with a winning record. The Rockets are just 1-4 ATS against Atlantic Division teams this season (again, the motivation just isn't there against a non-Western Conference foe). Also, Houston is just 17-31 ATS as a home fave of 12.5 to 18 points. 8* BROOKLYN |
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11-26-17 | Nets +5.5 v. Grizzlies | 98-88 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 8* Brooklyn Nets (+) @ Memphis Grizzlies @ 6:05 ET - Considering Brooklyn is only 2-7 on the road it looks almost "too easy" to take Memphis at home laying a rather small number here. However, you know looks can be deceiving and that is what my contrarian crusher plays are all about! In this case, upon closer inspection, you'll see why the Nets are actually a great play here! Not only has Memphis lost 7 straight games (SU and ATS!), the Grizzlies are 4-11 in their last 15 games with only 2 wins by more than 5 points! In other words, Memphis would have to do something they've only done TWICE in their last 15 games to beat us here. I like my chances with a Nets team that has covered 7 of its last 9 games while truly playing competitive basketball versus the likes of the Cavaliers, Warriors, Celtics, Nuggets, and Blazers. Brooklyn enters this game off of a high-scoring loss versus Portland. That is significant here as the Nets are 5-0 ATS this season when off of a game where they scored 115 points or more. The Grizzlies have trouble matching up with teams like Brooklyn that are consistently involved in high-scoring games. Sure the Nets defensive numbers will impress no one but check this out: Memphis has gone 0-6 ATS this season when facing a team that allows 106 or more points per game! That means we have an 11-0 ATS combined spot here that favors the road dog. 8* BROOKLYN |
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11-25-17 | Pelicans +11.5 v. Warriors | 95-110 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Saturday 8* New Orleans Pelicans (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 8:35 ET - With the Warriors off of a 49-point home win over the Bulls last night this one is a no-brainer, right? Actually it is anything but because Kevin Durant (ankle) is listed as doubtful for tonight's game and the Pelicans big men will take advantage. New Orleans is on the road again but with their blowout win at Phoenix last night they were able to rest guys. The Pelicans are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games and New Orleans is also 5-0 ATS against Pacific Division opponents this season. The Warriors are 3-8 ATS off of a game where they scored 115 points or more. The Warriors won all 4 meetings last season and the first meeting this season with New Orleans but the Pelicans have only lost 1 of those games by more than 10 points. Couple that with the fact that Durant is hurting and you have the makings of a much closer game than many are expecting here. 8* NEW ORLEANS |
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11-24-17 | Pelicans v. Suns +6.5 | Top | 115-91 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
Situational Slam - Rickenbach NBA Friday 10* Phoenix Suns (+) vs New Orleans Pelicans @ 9:05 ET - The Suns may not be a very good basketball team but they are catching the Pelicans at the perfect time for an upset. Combining that with the fact that Phoenix is at home and also catching a half-dozen points and you have a great value spot for a home dog. New Orleans is in a horrible scheduling spot as they are off of their huge upset win over San Antonio and the Pelicans now have Golden State on deck. That said, it is certainly a difficult spot for New Orleans to be too concerned with Phoenix. As for the Suns, they are hungry off of a home loss to the Bucks and this the final home game for Phoenix until December 7th so they want to make the most of it! The Pelicans game against the Warriors is tomorrow at Golden State so the situation truly couldn't be much worse after they also dominated the Spurs Wednesday. New Orleans is 5-10 ATS (and 4-11 SU) when off of a game where they allowed 90 points or less. The last 4 games between these teams have been decided by an average margin of just 2.25 points per game. Tremendous home dog value here. 10* PHOENIX |
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11-19-17 | Bulls +3 v. Suns | 105-113 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 8* Chicago Bulls (+) @ Phoenix Suns @ 8:05 ET - The Bulls are 3-10 this season and the Suns are 6-11 and yet Phoenix is only favored by 3 at home? Looks "funny" doesn't it? Long-time followers know how I feel about "strange" lines and the fact is that the Suns being favored only by the home court edge should tell you something since Phoenix has twice as many wins as Chicago so far this season! The moral of the story is don't fall for the trap! I am looking for the Bulls to get the outright upset here but happy to grab the points. Chicago has failed to cover only twice in seven road games this season and they also have momentum off of a win. The Suns are on a 15-27 ATS run as a favorite and also are just 10-25 SU when off of an upset win as an underdog. After winning as a sizable dog versus the Lakers at Los Angeles Friday, Phoenix will fall flat in this one! 8* CHICAGO |
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11-18-17 | Bucks v. Mavs +7.5 | 79-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Saturday 8* Dallas Mavericks (+) vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 9:05 ET - The Mavs were up big on the Timberwolves at the half yesterday but then blew the game and ended up losing big. The key though is that Dallas was able to get a lot of rest in the 2nd half of the game because Minnesota pulled away. That means that, even with this being a back to back spot for the Mavericks, it is not a bad spot to back the hungry home dog. Milwaukee comes in hot on a 4-game winning streak but they could look right past this non-conference foe that sports an ugly record. Also, the Bucks are just 1-3 in their last 4 road games. With this being the Bucks only road game in a span of nearly a dozen days, this match-up has "trap game" written all over it. 8* DALLAS |
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11-15-17 | Pacers v. Grizzlies -4 | Top | 116-113 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
Top Play Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Wednesday 10* Memphis Grizzlies (-) vs Indiana Pacers @ 8:05 ET - This line keeps dropping and I'll gladly step in. Memphis is all the way down to a 4 point favorite as of early game day morning. The only edge that the Pacers truly have is on the offensive end but the problem with that angle here is that they been held to average of only 99 points per game their last 3 games as they've shot under 45% in 2 of their last 3 games. The fact is that the Grizzlies have the far superior defense and also, of course, have the home court edge. The home team is actually a fantastic long-term 26-14 (65%) ATS in the last 40 meetings between these teams. Also the Pacers have allowed 47.8% or better from the field in 6 of their last 7 games including 5 straight games of at least 50%. Conversely, the Grizzlies are allowing just 43.1% shooting on the season! Also, Memphis has been better on the offensive end of late as well. The Grizzlies have shot over 47.5% from the field in 5 of their last 6 games and the one game they didn't reach that mark they shot a solid 46% from the field. The Grizzlies are 56-37 SU run in home games and the Pacers are on a 36-59 SU run in road games. With this line all the way down to a -4 I like my odds of not only the home win but also the cover. Additionally, Indiana is 0-3 SU and ATS this season when off of a game where they allowed 115 points or more. 10* MEMPHIS |
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11-14-17 | Raptors +7 v. Rockets | Top | 129-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
NBA TV Top Play - Rickenbach Tuesday NBA 10* Toronto Raptors (+) @ Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - This line looks a little "funny" at first glance and you know what that generally leads to! The fact is that this may be a bit of a contrarian play as most will want to back a red hot Houston team at home and laying a small number against a Raptors team that is only playing .500 ball in their last 10 games. The key to the advantage here is that Toronto has not played back to back games a single time this entire season. In fact, the Raptors enter this game having played just 7 games in the last 17 days! Conversely, the Rockets are playing for the 3rd time in 4 days and their 4th game in the last 6 days! The road team has won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these teams (SU and ATS). Toronto was favored at Boston Sunday but lost by a single point. The Raptors are 24-12 SU when off of an upset loss as a favorite. Whether or not Toronto gets the outright win here, I do expect them to drop the Rockets to 28-40 ATS in non-conference action! The Raptors have the fresher legs and they've faced the tougher schedule so far this season. 10* TORONTO |
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11-12-17 | Heat +3.5 v. Pistons | Top | 103-112 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 60 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (+) @ Detroit Pistons @ 4:05 ET - The Heat have faced a tougher schedule than the Pistons but they aren't getting much respect here as early indicators are that the public is all over Detroit in this match-up. I love getting teams like Miami plus the points. The Heat have been a different teams since Hassan Whiteside returned to the lineup and their defense is far superior to that of the Pistons. Detroit has allowed opponents to hit 49.6% from the field in their last 6 games. Miami has allowed opponents to hit only 41.1% from the field in their last 8 games! The key to the value here is the Pistons are 4-0 their last 4 games and 7-1 their last 8 games but that is taking attention away from a Heat team that is a solid 4-2 SU their last 6 and 4-1 ATS their last 5. Miami is off of an upset win at Utah but the Heat are actually a fantastic 24-10 ATS when coming off of an outright win as an underdog. The Pistons are 4-11 ATS (including 0-2 ATS already this season) when they are on a winning streak of 3 games or more. Grab the points here! 10* MIAMI |
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11-09-17 | Pelicans +5.5 v. Raptors | 118-122 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA Thursday 8* New Orleans Pelicans (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 7:35 ET - The Raptors have failed to cover 3 of their last 4 games and also won't be fully focused on New Orleans as Toronto has a big game at Boston on deck. For the Pelicans, they have won and covered each of their first 3 games on this 4-game road trip and they are eager to complete the perfect run with one more win tonight. New Orleans is the team with the motivation tonight as they have lost each of their last 4 meetings with the Raptors including losing by just 2 points in their most recent visit to Toronto. New Orleans has a powerful front court and should dominate the paint and the glass in this match-up. Also, the Pelicans are 3-1 (SU and ATS) in non-conference games this season. The Raptors historically have struggled against teams that can really "fill it up". Against teams that average 106 points or more per game, Toronto has gone 15-22 SU in recent season and is an ugly 26-64 SU long-term! I'll gladly take the points here! 8* NEW ORLEANS |
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11-09-17 | Lakers v. Wizards -10.5 | 95-111 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Thursday NBA 8* Washington Wizards (-) vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 7:05 ET - The Wizards are off of a 14 point home loss to Dallas. That means they missed the spread by nearly 25 points in that game as they were favored by close to double digits in that one! Washington will be ready to make amends for that horrific effort and they'll do it by getting revenge over a Lakers team that snuck out a 3-point win over the Wizards two weeks ago in Los Angeles. The Lakers lost by double digits at Boston but the 11 point loss could have been much worse as the Celtics scored 107 points even though they only shot 38.8% from the field in that game. That says a lot right there! The Lakers are on a 36-50 ATS run in road games. The Wizards are 52-35 ATS when playing with revenge and also 17-10 ATS when off of an upset loss as a favorite. This home team is angry and ready to initiate a beating on a LA team in the 2nd night of a back to back. The Wizards won't take their foot off of the gas here. 8* WASHINGTON |
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11-08-17 | Knicks +5.5 v. Magic | 99-112 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash Wednesday - Rickenbach NBA 8* New York Knicks (+) @ Orlando Magic @ 7:05 ET - The Knicks are in a back to back spot here but the key is that New York has a ton of momentum right now and their starters really didn't play a ton of minutes last night. That is always a key to look at when analyzing a back to back situation and the Knicks 5 starters averaged just 29 minutes each and not a single player in the 9 man rotation played more than 36 minutes. New York's shooting has been on fire and, riding the momentum of last night's come from behind win, the Knicks head to Orlando with a ton of confidence. New York has won (and covered) 6 of its last 7 games. The Knicks have averaged 111.4 points per game during this 7-game stretch. The Magic have been at the other end of the spectrum of late. Orlando is off of back to back losses and have averaged just 85.5 points per game in those two defeats. While it is true that the Magic will be the more rested team here, the fact is that when a team needs to get it's shooting touch back not playing games actually can be a detriment. Orlando hasn't had a good shooting game since LAST Wednesday! As for the Knicks, they are so hot right now with their shooting that the best thing for them is to keep playing and, keep in mind, Kristaps Porzingis was held under 30 points last night for just the 3rd time in 10 games this season and yet New York still got the win. The 7'3 Knick is averaging 30 points per game this season and shooting the ball very well and that hot shooting continued last night though he finished with 28 points. The road team has won and covered each of the last 3 meetings between these teams and the Knicks overall went 3-1 SU and ATS versus the Magic last season. New York is 4-0 SU and ATS against teams that allow 106 points or more per game this season. The Magic are 0-3 SU and ATS against Atlantic Division opponents. Look for those trends to remain perfect here as the Knicks continue to be an early season surprise! 8* NEW YORK KNICKS |
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11-07-17 | Hornets +1 v. Knicks | Top | 113-118 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
Top Play Dominator - Rickenbach Tuesday NBA 10* Charlotte Hornets (+) @ New York Knicks @ 7:35 ET - Charlotte opened up as a -2 here even though the Hornets are only 1-4 (both SU and ATS) in road games this season and the Knicks are 4-2 (both SU and ATS) in home games this season. Must be some kind of mistake here, right? Of course that's why there has been a big early move toward New York here but, as I have stated many times before, the odds makers know what they are doing! In other words, the Hornets opened up as a favorite here for a reason and, after the move that has taken Charlotte from a -2 to a +1 here, I have no hesitation in going with a top play here. Keep in mind, the Knicks are off of a huge come from behind win versus the Pacers where New York rallied from a huge deficit in the 2nd half. Also, the Hornets have revenge here from losing both games at New York last season with each defeat coming by 3 points or less. The Knicks have a game at Orlando on deck for tomorrow while the Hornets, after yesterday's off-day, have two more days off after this game. Charlotte is off of back to back losses and the last one was by 18 points. Look for the Hornets to improve to 3-0 (SU and ATS) this season when off of a loss by a double digit margin. The Knicks are 10-26 SU when off of an upset win as an underdog and New York won't have enough left in the tank after that surprising rally against the Pacers Sunday. 10* CHARLOTTE |
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11-07-17 | Pelicans +1 v. Pacers | 117-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Tuesday 8* New Orleans Pelicans (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 7:05 ET - The Pacers are hoping to bounce back after consecutive losses. However, the concern for Indiana is they've allowed their opponents to shoot 50% from the field in 3 straight games! As for the Pelicans, they've been at the other end of the spectrum as they have been playing fantastic defense and have held each of their last two opponents under 39% from the field. Couple that with the fact that the New Orleans big men down low are going to cause all sorts of trouble for the Pacers and you have a fantastic value spot to back the Pelicans in this one. Indiana is toward the end of a 6 games in 9 days stretch while New Orleans comes into this one rested after back to back days off the past two days. The Pelicans are on a 14-7 ATS run versus Central Division opponents and they are also 4-2 (SU and ATS) on the road this season. The Pacers are on a 27-38 ATS run in non-conference games and have a big divisional game against the Central Division leading Pistons tomorrow at Detroit! Tough spot for Indiana and a great spot to fade them with the Pelicans as they continue to be "road warriors" early this season. 8* NEW ORLEANS |
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11-03-17 | Rockets -8 v. Hawks | Top | 119-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
Top Play Dominator - Rickenbach Friday NBA 10* Houston Rockets (-) @ Atlanta Hawks @ 7:35 ET - The key with laying sizable points in basketball is that motivation is a key. Of course the Rockets are the much better team than the Hawks as that is why they opened up as 8-point favorites here even though this game is at Atlanta. That said, is the motivation there for a blowout win? In this case it is there to the 7th power! Ironically, the Hawks have lost 7 straight games this season as they prepare for this match-up and the Rockets have lost 7 straight games to Atlanta! That includes sweeps each of the past two seasons where the Hawks got the ATS cover in all 4 games too! As you would expect with these results, Houston has plenty of motivation here. The Rockets got their shooters rolling in their huge 22 point win at New York on Wednesday and now they take on an Atlanta team that just doesn't have the firepower to keep up with them. This Hawks team is absolutely a shell of the former Atlanta teams that used to give the Rockets trouble. Atlanta's 7-game losing streak has featured 5 defeats by double digit margins and I expect another one here. The Hawks just got blasted by the 76ers by 10 points on Wednesday and Atlanta is 0-4 SU and 0-4 ATS when off of a loss by double digits this season. Long-term the Hawks are 18-27 (40%) ATS in this situation. Atlanta is allowing 109 points per game this season and the Rockets are 28-19 ATS and 39-8 SU the L3 seasons combined when they are facing a poor defensive team (allowing 106 points or more per game). The Rockets are seeking revenge here so they won't let up and they blast the Hawks by double digits in this one! 10* HOUSTON |
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11-01-17 | Bucks +3.5 v. Hornets | 121-126 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
Contrarian Dominator - Rickenbach Wednesday NBA 8* Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - This is a contrarian play because many will look at this as a bad spot for the Bucks since they were in action versus Oklahoma City last night and now are traveling plus losing an hour due to going to the East Coast. However, the fact is that Milwaukee is playing their 3rd game in 4 nights (just like Charlotte is) and the Bucks (just like the Hornets) actually got some rest last night! What do I mean by that? Milwaukee's key players did not have to log a lot of minutes because the Bucks got blasted by the Thunder yesterday. Milwaukee was down by double digits early and was down by 20+ going to the 4th quarter. That type of game means the starters got plenty of rest and it also means it is going to be a fired up and angry Bucks team that takes on the Hornets tonight. Milwaukee has won each of its last 3 meetings with the Hornets and the Bucks also are a perfect 3-0 ATS in the last 3 meetings in Charlotte. The Hornets enter this game off of back to back wins and I am glad to challenge them to win their 3rd straight as they're also playing their 4th game in 6 nights. It may surprise some people to see who actually ends up tiring as this game goes on! As for the Bucks, they are off of a loss and they haven't lost back to back games yet this season! Also, Milwaukee is 2-0 SU and ATS against the Southeast Division this season while Charlotte is 0-2 SU and ATS against the Central Division. Grab the generous points here but I don't expect to need them. 8* MILWAUKEE |
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10-31-17 | Suns +4.5 v. Nets | Top | 122-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
Contrarian Dominator - Rickenbach Tuesday NBA 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns (+) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 7:35 ET - The Suns have been a different team since the coaching change. They have covered 3 in a row and they were a dog in all 3 games and won 2 of the 3 outright. Phoenix is definitely putting more emphasis on defense and they've held their last 3 opponents to 43% from the field. The Nets are the same old no-defense Brooklyn team we're used to seeing. The Nets have allowed 5 of their 7 opponents to make at least 48% of their shots from the field! Brooklyn is allowing 118.3 points per game! While the Suns full season points allowed look nearly as bad as the Nets, keep in mind Phoenix has allowed only 105.7 points per game in their last 3 games which of course are the games since the coaching change. The Suns also have plenty of motivation here because they've been swept by Brooklyn each of the last two seasons and each loss last season came by at least 18 points. It's time for payback and Phoenix is well rested since they've been off since Saturday. Conversely, the Nets are playing their 5th game in 8 nights and have yet to have back to back off days this entire season (that finally happens after this game). Though the marketplace appears to be tempted to back Brooklyn here as they expect a response off of a bad loss, the Nets are actually 17-47 SU (26-38 ATS) when off of a loss by double digits! I am expecting the upset here but, should the Suns fall short, I expect it to be by no more than a bucket. 10* PHOENIX |
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10-30-17 | Spurs +3.5 v. Celtics | 94-108 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
NBA TV Dominator - Rickenbach Monday NBA 8* San Antonio Spurs (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 7:35 ET - The Spurs have won 10 straight meetings with the Celtics. San Antonio also has won each of their last 6 visits to Boston. The Spurs finally got a taste of their own medicine yesterday as they took control, as usual, in the 4th quarter and were up by 9 with under 7 minutes to go. However, this time San Antonio was on the wrong end of the late 4th quarter push and the Pacers ended up getting the 3 point win in Indiana. Even though this is a back to back spot for the Spurs it helps that yesterday's game was an afternoon game and it also helps that San Antonio has two days off after this game. Hungry from back to back losses, you can bet (literally!) that the Spurs are going to go very hard in this one. That said, I like the additional line value here as this line has been pushed higher as the morning has gone on. Boston has won 4 straight (both SU and ATS) but they are 11-27 ATS when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. The Spurs, despite losing outright as a sizable road favorite yesterday, are still 46-25 ATS in game played in the first half of a season. They were again off to a fast start this season (prior to this 2-game skid) and I expect they'll get right back on track tonight. 8* SAN ANTONIO |
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10-27-17 | Nets +2.5 v. Knicks | Top | 86-107 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach Friday NBA 10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets (+) @ New York Knicks @ 7:35 ET - Brooklyn is averaging 121.2 points per game this season while the Knicks are averaging 93.3 points per game on the young season. Of course the Nets defense is a different story but that doesn't change the fact that the Knicks are winless both SU and ATS while Brooklyn is 4-1 ATS and 3-2 SU on the season. The Nets have lost both their road games this season but, of course, this isn't much of a "road game" here considering the game is in New York! Also, it is the first divisional game of the season for Brooklyn so there is no way they'll be flat here even though they're off of a win versus the Cavs on Wednesday. The Nets have covered 4 games in a row while the Knicks are still seeking their first cover. Also, Brooklyn has won each of its last two meetings with New York and the Knicks just are not getting good backcourt play. That is why, even though the Nets are without guard D'Angelo Russell tonight, the Knicks don't have the backcourt firepower to take advantage. This total is hovering around the 220 mark and New York is 0-7 ATS in home games with a posted total of 220 or more in recent seasons. The Nets are 4-0 ATS this season in games with a posted O/U equal to 220 or greater! 10* BROOKLYN |
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10-26-17 | Mavs v. Grizzlies -8 | Top | 91-96 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
Earliest Cash Top Play - Rickenbach Thursday NBA 10* Memphis Grizzlies (-) vs Dallas Mavericks @ 8:05 ET - This line yesterday was a -4 and that game was at Dallas and now the rematch is in Memphis in this rare back to back same team, different city match-up. The fact that the Grizzlies are now available at -8 (at the time of this posting) is a bargain because that is saying that home court is only worth 2 points...Memphis being a -6 on a neutral floor...and that is not right. Home court is worth more than 2 points and the Grizzlies are hungry for revenge here. Last night's loss was their first of the season and the Dallas win was the Mavericks first of the season. There is also another little tidbit that, though not huge, certainly also carries some value here. The Grizzlies do not want to play Chandler Parsons on back to back nights as he hasn't been medically cleared for that so he DID not play last night and WILL play tonight. As for the Mavericks, Devin Harris played last night (first game since shooting death of brother) but was not expected to travel with the team for this game. This personnel variance for each team in the Thursday rematch certainly leads to more home fave line value! The Mavericks are allowing opponents to make 48.7% from the field and 36.1% from three point land while the Grizzlies are holding opponents to 41.7% from the field and 30.7% from beyond the arc! Memphis is 22-13 ATS when playing back to backs while the Mavericks are 13-20 SU in back to backs. Remember that all 3 of the Grizzlies wins this season have come by 8 points or more and that includes winning at Houston and also knocking off the defending champ Warriors here in Tennessee! 10* MEMPHIS |
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10-25-17 | Grizzlies v. Mavs +4 | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
Top Play Dominator - Rickenbach Wednesday NBA 10* Dallas Mavericks (+) vs Memphis Grizzlies @ 8:35 ET - Memphis is 3-0 SU and ATS this season. Dallas is 0-4 SU and ATS this season. Mavericks have no chance, right? Actually the inverse is true. The Mavs are extremely hungry for their first win of the season and they know it need to come against the Grizzlies because otherwise Dallas will be staring an 0-6 in the face. That's because tonight's game is followed by another match-up with the Grizz in Memphis tomorrow! While the Grizzlies rallied from a double digit 4th quarter deficit against the Rockets in Houston to get an improbable road win, the Mavs are off of an embarrassing home loss to Golden State. Dallas is 31-17 ATS when off of a loss by a double digit margin. The Grizzlies are 4-16 ATS when they enter a game on a streak of 3 or more consecutive unders. Also, Memphis is 14-27 (both SU and ATS) when off of a divisional game. Even though the Mavericks are also a divisional opponent the Grizzlies are justifiably more concerned with the Rockets than the Mavs and I see tonight's game as a flat spot for Memphis. Keep in mind, this is just the 2nd road game of the season for the Grizzlies and they were down by 10 points late in the game against the Rockets before their huge game-ending run. 10* DALLAS |
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10-25-17 | Spurs v. Heat +4 | 117-100 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Wednesday NBA 8* Miami Heat (+) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 8:05 ET - The Spurs continue to do the unthinkable and grind out wins (and tight covers) despite not having Kawhi Leonard or Tony Parker available. Now they also saw role player Joffrey Lauvergne get hurt and he provides a big body that gets key rebounds and gives LaMarcus Aldridge a rest. While Lauvergne is not a key player, you may be surprised at how he impact the playing rotation of San Antonio for tonight's game in terms of big men. Certainly this helps Miami as the Heat are still without the injured Hassan Whiteside. I really like the hungry home dog here hosting a Spurs team that has seemed to have everything break their way late in games this season. That changes tonight as the Heat look to win their 3rd straight. Good value spot here as the Heat have not covered a game yet while San Antonio has yet to suffer an ATS loss. The Spurs are 36-43 ATS when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. The Heat are 13-7 (65%) ATS against teams from the Southwest Division and there certainly is "history" between the Heat and Spurs! 8* MIAMI |
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10-24-17 | Pacers +11 v. Wolves | Top | 130-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
Top Play Dominator - Rickenbach Tuesday NBA 10* Indiana Pacers (+) @ Minnesota Timberwolves @ 8:05 ET - The Timberwolves are over-priced here. I am well aware of the fact that the Pacers are still without Myles Turner but they've been without him since he got hurt in their season opener and Indiana is off of a tight 4-point loss in their most recent game. The Pacers are getting big scoring from Victor Oladipo. They can hang tight with a Timberwolves team that they certainly are catching at the right time. Minnesota is off of a huge win at Oklahoma City on Sunday. That was a big upset win for Minny and they are 10-21 SU when off of an outright upset win as an underdog. Also, the Wolves are 9-18 ATS short-term (and 46-73 ATS long-term) when off of a game where they scored 115 points or more. Also, Minnesota is known for playing down to the level of competition as they are 25-48 ATS in games against teams with a losing record. The Pacers are at the other end of the spectrum against teams with a winning record as they are on a 50-34 (60%) ATS run! Indiana also is 17-7 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games. The Pacers are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings with Minnesota and the road team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in those games! 10* INDIANA PACERS |
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10-24-17 | Knicks +9 v. Celtics | 89-110 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Tuesday NBA 8* New York Knicks (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 7:35 ET - The Knicks were up by 21 points versus Detroit Saturday in the first half but blew the big lead and ended up losing by 4. They know they need to focus more on defense and rebounding and I like their chances to stay inside an inflated number here. The Celtics, without Gordon Hayward now for the season, are relying on a deep rotation of players and that may help them when they're facing a tired opponent. But, in this case, they're facing a New York team that has been off since Saturday and doesn't play again until Friday. The Knicks will go "all out" here and are hungry off of a loss. Also, the road team has won each of the last 3 games (both SU and ATS) between these two divisional rivals. That said, it is also hard to expect the Celtics to win this game by double digits when they're making only 41.8% of their field goal attempts early this season. Boston is on a 13-20 ATS run in divisional games and I it certainly appears they are again over-priced here. The Celtics also have a "revenge game" at Milwaukee on deck for Thursday. The Bucks beat the C's and ruined their home opener Wednesday. 8* NEW YORK KNICKS |
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10-23-17 | Raptors +3 v. Spurs | Top | 97-101 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
Rickenbach Monday NBA 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 8:35 ET - The Spurs are the popular choice here and I love to fade the masses. Yes, San Antonio is off to a 2-0 start but they pulled away very late to beat a Minnesota team that is still learning how to close out games and they then faced a Bulls team that is certainly having some issues and in-fighting right now. Now the Spurs take on a Raptors team that has had 48 or more wins each of the last 4 seasons and San Antonio is still without Tony Parker and, most importantly, Kawhi Leonard. Having won their first two games by a combined 51 points, abeit against weak competition (Bulls and Sixers), Toronto does roll into SA with plenty of confidence for this one. Keep in mind the Raptors are shooting better from the field (including from 3 point land) in comparison with San Antonio early this season. The Spurs are below .500 ATS (49-52 record) when facing a team with a winning record and the Raptors are fantastic 43-18 SU when off of a game they won by a double digit margin. Very confident and ready to make a statement in their first truly challenging game this season, the road team rolls in this one! 10* TORONTO |
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10-23-17 | Grizzlies v. Rockets -7.5 | 98-90 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Monday NBA 8* Houston Rockets (-) vs Memphis Grizzlies @ 8:05 ET - Yes the Rockets are without Chris Paul but they were -13 with him on the floor in their upset win over the Warriors on opening night. Houston has also gone 2-0 without him as he has missed the past two games. Don't get me wrong, Paul is a fantastic player but the point is that others are filling in for very well. Look for the Rockets on Monday to take advantage of a Memphis team playing their first road game of the season. Also, the Grizzlies are coming off of a huge upset win over the Warriors on Saturday. Memphis has lost their last two games against the Rockets by an average margin of 19.5 points per game. The Grizzlies are on a 35-48 ATS run against teams with a winning record and I like the fact Houston is catching them off of an upset win over the defending champs. Keep in mind, the Rockets only non-cover this season was after they upset the Warriors at Golden State. 8* HOUSTON |
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10-22-17 | Pelicans -3.5 v. Lakers | 119-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
Western Conf Dominator - Rickenbach Sunday NBA 8* New Orleans Pelicans (-) @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 9:35 ET - Another nice set up here for many reasons. First off the Pelicans are off of a loss but they faced the NBA Champion Warriors and they actually led Golden State by 15 points in the first half of that game. While New Orleans is coming into this one hungry off of a loss the Lakers are feeling satisfied off of a win Friday. That win, however, was at Phoenix, and the Suns don't play defense. Keep in mind, when Lonzo Ball and these Lakers faced the defensive-minded Clippers in their opener on Wednesday, the Lakers were dominated. The Clippers had too much size inside and Ball was out-classed by Patrick Beverley. This will prove to be another tough match-up for Ball and the Lakers because the Pelicans have another former UCLA star (Jrue Holiday) whom will match-up with Lonzo. Look for the highly motivated Holiday to win this battle. Also, in the paint, New Orleans has a huge edge with the big bodies of DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis. The early drop on this line also gives added value with the small road fave here. The Lakers are 2-6 ATS when off of a game where they allowed 130 points or more. Both these teams enter this game 1-1 but the Pelicans have played the much tougher schedule. Grab the line value here as the Pelicans get revenge for April's loss in the most recent meeting in Los Angeles. 8* NEW ORLEANS |
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10-21-17 | Spurs v. Bulls +9.5 | 87-77 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
Market Analytics - Rickenbach Saturday NBA 8* Chicago Bulls (+) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 8:05 ET - The Spurs got the win and cover versus the Timberwolves on Wednesday in San Antonio. However, that game was very tight until the final minutes and the final score is quite deceiving. This has resulted in some additional line value here because this is still an SA team that is without Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker right now. The Bulls are hungry off of their 17 point road loss at Toronto Thursday and definitely want to come up with a big effort in their home opener. What could be better than winning a home opener against a highly respected team like the Spurs? I am not saying that will happen but, you get my point! The Bulls want this one and SA is still a banged up team. By the way, the Spurs are only 3-5 SU when off of an upset win as an underdog and now, after a mild upset of Minnesota, San Antonio is laying nearly double digits on the road. Chicago is 64-51 ATS when off of a game where they allowed 115 points or more. 8* CHICAGO |
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10-20-17 | Jazz v. Wolves -4 | Top | 97-100 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
Top Play Annihilation Friday - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves (-) vs Utah Jazz @ 8:05 ET - The Timberwolves actually led the Spurs with 5 minutes to go in the 4th quarter. They also were down just 1 point with 4 minutes to go when they missed a 3-pointer that would have given them a 2 point lead. Anyway calling San Antonio an "easy win" Wednesday didn't watch the game very closely as it certainly could have gone either way in the final minutes. In any event, this Minnesota team is well coached and also has added a ton of talent. They've got much more of a veteran presence than the young teams they've had in recent seasons. The result is likely to be a solid season and while they're moving up the Jazz are on their way down. Yes Utah won 51 games last season but they also had Gordon Hayward. You're already seeing what is happening to Boston after they acquired Hayward but he got hurt just 6 minutes into the season opener. The Celtics have seen that no Hayward has left quite a hole. Certainly Utah will be a different team without him. The Jazz did win their home opener but that was against a Denver team projected to be dead last in the division this season. Now Utah is on the road and they've gone 18-50 SU and have covered just 28 of 68 ATS when they are an underdog. That said, I am very comfortable laying the small number with the Timberwolves in their home opener. Minny is on a 45-31 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record and the Wolves are looking for payback here as they've lost 3 of 4 to the Jazz each of the last two seasons. Utah has a home game with OKC tomorrow and they'll be looking ahead to that match-up as they get down by double digits in this one in my opinion. 10* MINNESOTA |
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10-18-17 | 76ers +7 v. Wizards | 115-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach Wednesday NBA 8* Philadelphia 76'ers (+) @ Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - The 76'ers were a sizable dog in all 3 match-ups with the Wizards last year. Not only did the Sixers cover 2 of the 3 games, they won the 2 games outright as a big dog each time. Also, in the lone loss, Philly was tied at Washington at half-time. The point is that the 76'ers did just fine "hanging with" the Wizards last season and now that they've substantially "closed the gap" this season and are likely to be a .500 team, this line seems very generous. The upstart Sixers are loaded with young talent and they are ready to go. Look for Philadelphia to immediately make a statement here in Game 1 with the ESPN cameras rolling. Joel Embiid is probable and he was only available for 31 games last season. Ben Simmons will also be on the floor after missing all of last season and he is considered a strong candidate for Rookie of the Year in the NBA this season. Additionally, Markelle Fultz is probable and he was a top draft choice in this year's draft. Yes indeed the Sixers are stacked and they are healthy and, with Gordon Hayward's injury last night being a devastating low for Boston, don't be surprised if the Sixers actually end up challenging the Raptors and Celtics for the top spot in the Atlantic this season. Philly has that much talent so the key will be remaining healthy. Also, coach Brett Brown is a strength as he came up as an assistant with Spurs coach Gregg Popovich. Now Brown finally has the pieces intact. This team is going to surprise some people and, if they do fall short against the Wizards, look for it to be by only a bucket or two as the Sixers have a great shot at the upset here. I am grabbing the generous points. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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10-17-17 | Celtics +3.5 v. Cavs | 99-102 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Tuesday NBA 8* Boston Celtics (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:05 ET - Kyrie Irving, former Cav, now in a Celtics uniform. Isaiah Thomas, former Celtic, now in a Cavs uniform. The difference is that Thomas won't be playing tonight. He's out for possibly 2 months dealing with an ankle injury. Additionally, Cleveland's LeBron James is dealing with an ankle injury. I do expect James to play tonight but I don't expect him to be 100%. I know the Cavaliers will have Derrick Rose at point guard tonight but he's truly not quite the same player he was before the injury issues. Remember there was a span of 3 seasons there where played a total of only 49 games! I also look for the Gordon Hayward acquisition to pay off big dividends for Boston as he averaged 22 points a game for Utah last season. The road team has dominated at the betting window in match-ups between these teams in recent season. In last year's playoff series, won 4-1 by Cleveland (and giving Boston a revenge factor here), the road team covered all 5 games. Dating back to last April it is a perfect 6-0 ATS run for the road team in meetings between these teams. Look for 7 in a row tonight! 8* BOSTON |
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06-12-17 | Cavs +9 v. Warriors | Top | 120-129 | Push | 0 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach Monday NBA 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 9 ET - After getting embarrassed by 21 points in Game 4 at Cleveland on Friday the Warriors have to bounce back here, right? Not necessarily! In fact, Golden State is laying a sizable number here even though they are 1-5 ATS this season when off of a loss by 10 points or more. While it is likely that the Warriors close out the series tonight, it would not be a complete shock if the Cavs got the upset win. They've done it before here at Golden State in spots very similar to this one. However, the real key is the line value because lets not forget that Cleveland, at halftime, was only down by 8 to the Warriors in Game One and just 3 to the Warriors in Game Two here. Then the Cavs should have won Game Three were it not for blowing a sizable lead very late. Now, with the added confidence of having won Game Four, look for the Cavs to be able to stay close with Golden State all the way in this one. As you can see, they've "been right there" with the Warriors for much more of this series than what the final scores would lead you to believe but the odds makers simply have to keep this number big on Golden State because the public is likely to be all over them in "bounce back mode" here. In addition to that 1-5 ATS mark for the Warriors off of a double digits loss, also note that the Cavs are 22-10 SU (and have had just 12 ATS losses in those 32 games) when off of a win by a margin of 10 points or more. Momentum is huge when it comes to ATS covers and the Cavaliers have it and will seize the moment here. 10* CLEVELAND plus the big points Monday night. |
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06-04-17 | Cavs +9 v. Warriors | Top | 113-132 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
ABC Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 8 ET - The Cavaliers have no chance in this series. At least that is prevailing public opinion after the way Game 1 played out. Of course we all know how it usually plays out after the public gets one-sided about things after one game. The point is that the value is clearly with the road dog in this one. The opening line on this game was a 7 and it is now up to a 9. The Warriors turned the ball over just 4 times in Game 1 while the Cavaliers turned it over 20 times. Do you really think that the Cavs are again going to lose the turnover battle 20-4? Do you really think that a LeBron James Cleveland team that also has Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love is just going to lay down in Game 2 after getting embarrassed in Game 1? The Cavaliers were on an 8-0 ATS run away from home before the ugly loss Thursday at Golden State. That was their first non-cover away from Cleveland since in nearly TWO MONTHS - April 9th! Look for the Warriors to drop to 3-10 ATS on the season in Sunday games! They've been feeling a little too good about themselves with their perfect record in this post-season and don't you think beautiful Saturdays in California have a little something to do with that ugly Sunday ATS record for the Warriors? Trust me the Cavaliers certainly have been all business after what happened in Game 1. They'll make some adjustments. Grab the big points. 10* CLEVELAND |