NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #711 Friday - 8* Los Angeles Clippers (-) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 8:05 ET - The Clippers have only lost one game so far this season and it was the Thunder who got the tight two-point win over them in Los Angeles a little over a week ago. That makes this a revenge spot for the Clips and we are getting line value here because of Oklahoma City's 6-2 record on the season. Keep in mind that the Thunder early season record has certainly been helped by a favorable schedule. Other than the upset win over the Clippers, OKC has 5 wins against teams that have a combined 12-27 record so far this season! Against Golden State and Toronto (a combined 11-4 record) the Thunder lost the games by a combined 36 points. Now they face another one of the league's top teams and Oklahoma City is likely to get throttled by the revenge-seeking Clips. Los Angeles has thrived in this situation historically. In fact, the Clippers are an incredible 47-17 ATS long-term (and 15-3 ATS the L3 seasons combined) when they are a road favorite in a range of -3.5 to -6 points! The Thunder are 11-21 ATS the L3 seasons combined on Friday nights. They get blasted again here as the powerful road fave gets their revenge. The point differential for LA this season is incredible as they are averaging 105 points per game while allowing only 88 points per game. All 7 of the Clips wins have come by at least 8 points. Lay it! 8* LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS Friday

TNT Blowout - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 - 8* Chicago Bulls (+) @ Miami Heat @ 8:05 ET Thursday - The scheduling edge here certainly goes to Miami but sometimes these types of edges get "played up" too much and the value is truly with the team in the worse situation. Indeed this is a back to back spot for the Bulls while the Heat have been off since Monday. However, Chicago is hungry off of a loss last night and you know that Dwyane Wade has his sights set on having a huge performance in his first trip to Miami since becoming a Bull. The Heat are struggling early this season with just 2 wins in 6 games on the year and Miami is struggling to find perimeter shooting. This certainly has played a role in the Heat shooting only 41.8% from the field this season. Look for Miami to struggle to try and keep up with a Bulls team that is averaging 107.2 points per game on the young season. The only two wins the Heat have this season have come against Sacramento and Orlando. The Kings and Magic are projected to be among the worst teams in the league this season. The Bulls are only 4-4 on the season but have wins over Indiana and Boston and those are both playoff-level teams. Also, having the extra rest may not help a Miami offense that is struggling to find its rhythm early this season. The Heat also are already 0-2 SU and ATS when playing with 2 days of rest this season. The line here has moved from pick'em to Miami -2.5 and I'll grab the value on the other side of the move. 8* CHICAGO Thursday

Rickenbach NBA Game #711 Wednesday - 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls (+) @ Atlanta Hawks @ 7:35 ET - The Bulls have revenge on their minds here. They lost all 4 meetings with the Hawks last season. Chicago has lost each of it's last 3 visits to Atlanta and 6 of the last 7 meetings overall. How do they rectify the situation? The Bulls catching the Hawks at the right time is a big help and that is exactly what has happened here. Chicago is catching Atlanta off of a big revenging win at Cleveland last night. Not only is this a back to back spot for the Hawks but they also had to battle all night to get past the Cavaliers last night. That sets this situation up beautifully for a Bulls upset today as the Hawks will have trouble dealing with another quality opponent in the 2nd night of a back to back and with travel involved as the Hawks had to get back to Atlanta after last night's game. The Hawks held the Cavs Irving and Smith to a combined 13 of 40 from the field and Atlanta simply won't have much left in the tank after last night's solid defensive effort. From a situational standpoint, it just doesn't get much better than this. Grab the points. 10* CHICAGO Wednesday

Rickenbach NBA Game #709 Wednesday - 8* Philadelphia 76'ers (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 7:05 ET - The 76'ers are off of an ugly loss to Utah Monday. Even though the Sixers are 0-6 on the season they have yet to have back to back blowout losses. Each time off of an ugly loss Philadelphia has responded with a strong effort which has resulted in a competitive game. That is also what I expect to be the case in this instance as well. Philly is at Indiana and getting plenty of points. The Pacers are only 3-4 on the season and only one of those victories has come by a double digit margin. Indiana enters this game on a 1-5 ATS skid. The Sixers are already 2-0 ATS this season when off of a loss by a double digit margin and also 19-12 ATS the past three seasons when they are off of a game where they were held to 85 points or less. After their ugly 109-84 loss to the Jazz on Monday, the Sixers keep this one much more competitive than many are expecting. Look for the 76'ers to play some small ball (and use that to their advantage) as one of their big men, Joel Embiid, is likely to sit this one out. 8* PHILADELPHIA Wednesday

Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Wednesday - 8* Minnesota Timberwolves (+) @ Orlando Magic @ 7:05 ET - I lost with the T-wolves last night but the final score is deceiving as the game was much closer than the final margin. The end result of a loss leaves the Timberwolves still very hungry for a win and, even though this is a back to back spot, I like their chances against a struggling Orlando team. The Magic showed very little heart in the way they got blown out by 32 in the loss at Chicago Monday. Orlando had a strong first half but could do nothing right in the second half and they are proving early this season that they are a tough team to trust. The Magic are only 3-4 on the season and 2 of their wins came by 2 points or less. With this line climbing up early to a +3 for Minny, there is nice line value with the underdog. The first three losses that Minnesota had this season all came by 4 points or less. The T-wolves have been so close to turning the corner but again fell just short at Brooklyn last night as the Nets just simply were on fire from the field. The Timberwolves played a good game but Brooklyn won despite getting outshot by a double digit margin in attempts from the field. The Nets were hot from the field. For Minny, the good news is that tonight they are unlikely to run into that problem as the Magic are only hitting 41% from the field this season. Also, Orlando is making only 30.4% of their three pointers this season. Look for the Magic to drop to 0-4 ATS on the season as a favorite. A young team like the Timberwolves won't be greatly impacted by this back to back spot and they also have two off days on deck after this so they 'leave it all on the floor' tonight as they go for that elusive road victory. I expect them to get it but will certainly grab the points as the T-wolves have revenge on their minds after losing both match-ups with Orlando each of the past two seasons. 8* MINNESOTA Wednesday

Top Blowout Smash - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Tuesday - 10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves (-) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 7:35 ET - Both of these teams have injury issues at the point guard spot but it is a much worse situation for the Nets in comparison with the Timberwolves. Already without star PG Jeremy Lin, the Nets are likely to be without Greivis Vazquez (back-up PG) tonight as well. Minnesota at least has 2nd year man Tyus Jones to man the point along with rookie Kris Dunn. Though Randy Foye is expected to finally play his first game of the new season tonight, the Brooklyn shooting guard is unlikely to be in top rhythm in his very first game back. That said, Minny can focus on double-teaming Brooks Lopez down low and this effectively shuts down the Nets offense. Brooklyn has been held to 95 points or less in 2 of their last 3 games. The T-wolves, with Karl-Anthony Towns, will have the best player on the floor tonight and he and his Minnesota teammates are hungry to get back into the win column after back to back losses. On deck for the T-wolves is another non-conference match-up while the Nets have a big game on deck with the cross-town division rival Knicks. Brooklyn has the much better ATS mark in comparison with the Timberwolves early this season but that is helping to give line value to a Minny team that won both meetings with the Nets by a double digit margin last season. Teams can grow complacent when on a long homestand and Brooklyn is 4-16 ATS (and 2-18 SU!) when they enter a game having played each of their three prior games at home. The Timberwolves are 24-13 ATS in their last 37 meetings with the Nets and they add another W to that tonight as they bounce back after back to back losses. 10* MINNESOTA

NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Tuesday - 8* Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:05 ET - Big revenge game for Atlanta after getting eliminated from the playoffs by Cleveland last spring. Though it certainly will be tough for the Hawks to win outright on the road against the Cavaliers, there definitely is significant line value with the points that are being offered here. The Cavs are 6-0 on the season but their last 5 wins have all come by 8 points or less. In fact, the average margin of victory in those 8 games is only 4.8 points! As for the Hawks, they are 4-2 on the season and their two losses came by only 7 points and 3 points, respectively. Each of the Cavaliers last 4 opponents have hit at least 45.2% from the field. As for the Hawks, they've held 4 of their 6 opponents to 43.5% or less from the field. Cleveland has been knocking down three pointers but the Hawks have been better from inside the arc and, with two full off days between games, the Cavaliers may have lost some of their rhythm from three point land. Each team has been off since Saturday. Atlanta is 46-22 SU (and 42-26 ATS) when off of a win by a margin of 10 points or more. The Cavaliers continue to be a money-burning team in November as they are on a 10-20 ATS run in November games including an ugly 0-3 ATS this season. Also, the Hawks are already 2-0 ATS agianst teams with a winning record this season so that is a combined 5-0 ATS mark in favor of the road dog in this one. 8* ATLANTA

Watch-n-Win Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #706 Monday - 8* Philadelphia 76'ers (+) vs Utah Jazz @ 7:05 ET - The Sixers are still seeking their first win of the season but they have been very competitive in home games. Philly is off of a 1 point loss to the NBA champion Cavaliers and that means that the 76'ers have now had 3 of 4 losses at home by an average of 3 points per game! Philly is hungry to get over the hump here as they have a road game on deck and that begins a stretch where 4 of the Sixers next 6 games are away from home. Getting that first win while still on their home floor is a big goal for Philadelphia and they are catching Utah at a good time. The Jazz are off of a win at New York yesterday and this is the first time this season that the Jazz have had to play road games on back to back days. Also, this will be Utah's 5th game in 7 days. It is a tough stretch for the road team here and Philadelphia is playing for just the 2nd time in 5 days so the 76'ers certainly will have the fresher legs tonight. The Sixers are 16-4 ATS against Northwest Division teams and 38-21 ATS in non-conference action as the teams from out west certainly don't bring a lot of motivation to these match-ups with a team that has been the worst in the Eastern Conference in recent seasons. 8* PHILADELPHIA 76'ERS Monday evening

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #509 Sunday - 8* Denver Nuggets (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 7:35 ET - Many will be looking to fade the Nuggets here because they are in the 2nd night of a back to back situation while the Celtics have had 2 days off coming into this battle in Boston. However, no one played more than 29 minutes for Denver last night and the only reason the Nuggets were beaten badly is that they shot poorly. Denver was held to 33% from the field but they again won the battle of the boards and are averaging about a dozen more boards per game than their opponents so far this season. As for the Celtics, they are an ugly 8-14 ATS when playing with two days of rest and they have been outrebounded in 3 of their last 4 games. The deficit has been about 15 boards per game in those 3 games. What I especially like about this match-up is the value with the big points. All 5 of Boston's game this season have been decided by 6 points or less and, before yesterday's rare blowout loss, all of Denver's games this season had been decided by 5 points or less. With the Nuggets about a 7.5 point dog here, there is great value with the points. The Nuggets also have plenty of motivation here as they've lost both match-ups with Boston each of the past two seasons. 8* DENVER

Rickenbach NBA Game #514 Friday - 8* Dallas Mavericks (+) vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 8:35 ET - Portland is playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and they just lost at New Orleans Wednesday to give the Pelicans their first win of the season. Now I look for the Trail Blazers to end up giving the Mavericks their first win of the season. Dallas has allowed just 95 points per game in their past two games but they've still come up short of a victory. Portland has allowed 115.2 points per game so far this season and the Blazers won't be able to match the defensive intensity of the hungry Mavs in this one. Portland has gone over the total in each of their five games this season and this style of play hasn't led to many positive results at the betting window in the past. When the Trail Blazers enter a game having gone over the total in each of their three prior games, they have gone 10-18 ATS (including 0-2 ATS this season). The Mavericks have covered 5 of their last 7 meetings with Portland and that includes all 3 of the meetings in Dallas. Off of 4 straight losses to open the season the Mavericks are the hungry home dog here and the Blazers aren't going to be able to match their defensive intensity. 8* DALLAS Friday

Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Friday - 8* New York Knicks (+) @ Chicago Bulls @ 8:05 ET - Huge game for Joakim Noah and Derrick Rose as they return from New York to Chicago to face their former team. Both of these clubs, with all the changes in the off-season, are having struggles getting going early this season. Of course it has been worse for the 1-3 Knicks than the 3-1 Bulls but with the way Chicago's D is struggling, including on the perimeter in their loss @ Boston Wednesday, the points are the way to go here. The Bulls have allowed opponents to shoot 47% or better from the floor in 3 of their 4 games and Chicago faces a hungry Knicks team that has played the tougher schedule early this season. New York, off of an ugly home loss to Houston, is eyeing this big match-up on ESPN Friday night as an opportunity to right the ship. Look for Noah and Rose to lead the way as the Knicks improve on a 19-12 ATS mark in Friday night games the past 2 seasons. The Bulls have only gone 9-15 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points the past 2 seasons. 8* NEW YORK Friday

Rickenbach NBA Game #515 Wednesday - 8* Dallas Mavericks (+) @ Utah Jazz @ 9:05 ET - What is worse than facing the Spurs in a front end of a back to back? Facing a winless, ultra hungry team in the 2nd half of that back to back situation after having to travel. Yes the Jazz were in San Antonio last night and now they're back home to take on a Dallas team that is 0-3 on the season but well rested and very hungry off of a 1 point loss. The Mavericks went 2-1 against the Jazz last season with the lone loss by just 2 points. Also, Dallas has gotten the straight-up win in 5 of their last 7 trips to Utah. The Mavs are 6-3 (SU and ATS) when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more. Also, the Mavericks have failed to cover only 14 of their last 41 against Northwest Division opponents. Utah has lost 18 of 31 when off of an upset loss as an underdog. Also, the Jazz are just 15-26 when off of a win by a double digit margin. Make no mistake about it, last night's Utah win over the Spurs was a big one. They will be flat here and the Mavericks will take advantage as they bring a huge effort in hopes of notching their first win of the season. 8* Dallas

Rickenbach NBA Game #511 Wednesday - 8* New Orleans Pelicans (+) @ Memphis Grizzlies @ 8:05 ET - The Pelicans are winless on the season after a tight loss to Milwaukee last night. All their games have been tight (except the ugly loss at San Antonio) and, with that said, New Orleans is offering some nice road dog value here. Even though the Pelicans are in a back to back spot, the Grizzlies are also in a back to back spot and Memphis got blasted last night. The Grizzlies lost by 36 points last night and they are now playing their 4th game in 5 nights. Even though New Orleans is also in a back to back spot, they had two days off prior to facing the Bucks last night. Memphis is only 16-20 SU in divisional games the past two seasons and here they are being asked to cover a half dozen points. The Pelicans are on a respectable 59-44 ATS run as an underdog. Also, when off of an upset loss as a favorite, New Orleans has gone 19-11 ATS. When playing on back to back days the past two seasons the Pelicans went 22-15 ATS. 8* New Orleans

Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Wednesday - 8* Washington Wizards (+) vs Toronto Raptors @ 7:05 ET - The Wizards swept the Raptors out of the post-season two seasons ago. The Raptors then got some measure of payback by sweeping the regular season series last year 4 games to 0. Needless to say it's now Washington that has payback on their minds and the Wizards are also playing their home opener tonight and have an 0-2 record on the young season. They will be hungry to get into the win column here and they are catching the Raptors off of a tight home win versus Denver and now playing their first road game of the season. The Wizards are 54-33 SU in home games the past two seasons. The Raptors are 31-47 ATS when off of a game where they scored 105 points or more. 8* Washington

Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #709 Tuesday - 8* Sacramento Kings (+) @ Miami Heat @ 7:35 ET - Many will look at this match-up and see a back to back situation and figure the Kings are in trouble. However, Sacramento did a good job of limiting minutes with their player rotation in last night's loss at Atlanta and they have fresher legs than you would normally expect for a back to back spot. Also, the fact they blew the game in the fourth quarter last night has the Kings hungry for a bounce back as they eye a road win tonight. Sacramento is catching the Heat at the right time. Miami is already dealing with early season injury issues, they are off of back to back losses, and they are in a lookahead spot here. Up next for the Heat is a trip to Toronto and it is hard for Miami not to be looking ahead to that match-up with a Raptors team that knocked them out of the playoffs last season. Toronto got the best of the Heat in a series that went 7 games in the Eastern Conference semi-finals. While the Heat are looking ahead, the Kings are fully focused on this game as they look to get revenge for losing both match-ups with Miami each of the past two seasons. The Heat are 9-17 ATS in Tuesday match-ups the past two seasons. The Kings are 18-13 ATS in November games the past two seasons. 8* SACRAMENTO KINGS

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Tuesday - 8* Houston Rockets (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 6:05 ET - Even though this is a revenge spot for the Cavs (lost at home to Rockets in late March), a team having revenge is not that big of a deal when that team went on to win the Championship in June. That said, there is big value with the big points being offered here. The Cavaliers are 3-0 on the young season but they haven't shot the ball very well in their last two games and, on the other end of the floor, they are allowing a higher and higher shooting percentage with each game so far this season. The Magic hit 45.2% from the field in Saturday's non-covering Cleveland win. The Rockets are 2-1 on the young season and the lone loss came by 6 points. Houston is doing a respectable job on the boards early this season while the Cavs have been outrebounded significantly in their past two games. James Harden (probable for tonight - ankle) and the Rockets are fired up about facing the defending champs. Look for Houston - 15-3 ATS on Tuesdays the past two seasons combined - to give the Cavs all they can handle here. Cleveland is 10-17 ATS in November games the past two seasons and this non-conference match-up is likely to have them looking ahead to all the Eastern Conference opponents that are up ahead on the schedule. 5 of the Cavaliers next 7 games are against Eastern Conference teams that were in the post-season last spring. 8* HOUSTON ROCKETS

NBA TV Blowout - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Monday - 8* Toronto Raptors (-) vs Denver Nuggets @ 7:35 ET - Nice spot for Toronto to win big at home. Not only are the Raptors off of a home loss to Cleveland Friday, Toronto also has revenge on their minds here. They lost both games against the Nuggets last season. The Raptors lost in Denver by 19 in the most recent meeting and, prior to that, Toronto suffered a home loss by a single point to the Nuggets in the last meeting north of the border. It is payback time here and, though both teams are 1-1 on the season, the Nuggets are expected to be one of the weaker teams in the Western Conference this season while the Raptors are expected to be among the top teams in the Eastern Conference once again this season. Denver is only 7-13 SU in their last 20 games against teams from the Atlantic Division. Also, the Nuggets only got the ATS cover in 7 of those 20 games as well. As a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points, the Raptors have gone 14-4 SU. Their ATS success in that same point spread range has not been as good but, as you can see, the SU win is to be expected. That said, what about the cover this time around? The key here is that Toronto has the double revenge angle working in their favor. Once they get up big in this game they are not going to take their foot off of the gas because they learned their lesson in last year's match-ups with Denver. The Raptors, off of a loss, need to take care of business tonight and they have shot better, defended better, and also been less turnover prone (Tor 29, Den 41) compared to the Nuggets in the first two games of this season. All those edges should lead to a win by double digits for the Raptors on NBA TV Monday evening. 8* TORONTO

NBA TV Blowout - Rickenbach NBA Game #712 Sunday - 8* Memphis Grizzlies (+) vs Washington Wizards @ 8:05 ET - A key in NBA wagering success certainly involves looking at scheduling because it can create some favorable situations. However, sometimes when it seems a team has some big edge because of scheduling, everyone piles on and the line moves and then it actually creates huge value going the other way. That is precisely the situation here. The Grizzles are in a back to back as they were at New York last night while the Wizards are rested as they have been off since facing Atlanta on Thursday in what is Washington's only game so far this season. The key to the value here is that Memphis is fired up off of a loss (they did get to within two points of the Knicks before New York pulled away in the fourth quarter) and the Grizzlies did not have a single player log more than 30 minutes last night. That means we have legs that are fresher than normal for a back to back spot and we have a team that is hungry because they are off of a loss. The Grizzlies did win their first game of the season at home on Wednesday and they actually have won 16 of their last 20 home match-ups with the Wizards. The result of all of the above? Exceptional value on the home dog. I do feel that Washington is going to be improved this season but Memphis is 8-4 ATS as a home dog of 3 points or less and they won all 8 of those games straight up and they are fired up to bounce back off of last night's loss. They also are 29-18 ATS off of a game where they allowed 105 points or more. The Wizards are 6-10 ATS in Sunday games and that is no fluke. It has to do with how players prepare the day before a game and just keep in mind the Wizards were on the road on a Saturday night. They could be a little flat today and the Grizzlies will come out firing on all cylinders after getting off to a slow start at New York yesterday. 8* MEMPHIS

ESPN Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #702 Friday - 8* Toronto Raptors +3.5 vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:05 ET - The last time these teams met it was May 27th at the Air Canada Centre and the Raptors ended up on the wrong end of a 113-87 blowout. That ended Toronto's season and they certainly haven't forgotten that embarrassing setback that occurred in front of their home fans and will be out for payback tonight. That said, I like the home dog value here with the Raptors as, keep in mind, the home team in this series won and covered every other game between these clubs last season. In the playoffs and regular season combined the home teams in this series were on an 8-0 SU and ATS run heading into that Game 6 match-up in the Eastern Conference Finals. Both teams got a win in their season opener this year and both clubs looked impressive. However, the Cavaliers had gone only 24-37 ATS in games played before the All Star break the past two seasons and after their big effort in their home opener (which included ring ceremony, etc) I don't expect the Cavs to be able to match the Raptors intensity in this one. Toronto is very hungry for this game and the Raptors went 32-9 at home in the regular season last year while the Cavs only went 24-17 in road games. I like the fact that Toronto outscored the Pistons in every single quarter of their season opener Wednesday. This was even with the Raptors having a rare off-night from 3-point land as they only made 3 of 18 from downtown. They'll improve on that tonight and they'll again "keep the hammer down" against a Cavs team that was only up by one possession on the Knicks at half-time of their season opener. Certainly Cleveland had an impressive second half but another slow start (on the road and against a quality revenge-minded foe) likely won't end with a Cavs W and that is what I am expecting here. 8* TORONTO RAPTORS

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Thursday - 8* Washington Wizards +4 @ Atlanta Hawks @ 7:35 ET - This line went from Atlanta -2.5 to the Hawks now being a 4 point favorite and that makes it "go time" with this play. The NBA is all about line value when it comes to the handicapping side of things. That said, it always looks so enticing to play those small favorites but, so often, they are a small favorite with very good reason. On opening night, none of the teams were favored by less than 5.5 points. However, last night there were 5 teams that went off the board as a favorite of 4 points or less. If you played all 5 of those favorites you went 1-4 ATS and those 4 losses against the spread were also outright losses! The point is that the reason Washington (missed playoffs last season) opened up as a small dog even though they are on the road at Atlanta (made it to 2nd round of playoffs last season) is a good reason! The Wizards have responded well to new coach Scott Brooks, Bradley Beal is now healthy, and the changes to the Hawks roster (adding Dwight Howard and losing Al Horford and Jeff Teague) are so significant that Atlanta is absolutely going to have to endure an "adjustment phase" early this season. I don't see them just hitting the floor running on all cylinders right away. Just like my play yesterday on Philly against OKC (never in doubt, covered from start to finish) I went against a team that lost significant personnel (Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka) from the prior season and I am doing the same thing here. Don't be surprised if the Wizards get the road "upset" here. 8* WASHINGTON plus the points Thursday evening

ESPN Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #714 Wednesday - 8* Philadelphia 76'ers (+) vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 8:05 ET - What we saw last night with Golden State and the Knicks is similar to what we may see with the Thunder tonight. The fact is that teams that had a lot of off-season changes could struggle to find their rhythm early. New York hung around in the first half at Cleveland but then got blasted in the 2nd half and lost by 29. The Warriors were just plain awful all night and they got hammered by 29 on their home floor by San Antonio. The point is that I would not be surprised to see the Thunder struggle in their first game of the season as well and that makes fading them as 9 point road chalk very attractive. This is especially true when you consider that the Sixers, as bad as they have been in recent seasons, have still been known to rise up and cause good teams some problems. When the 76'ers are motivated and at home, they've been known to be a dangerous dog. The Thunder are going to go through a transition period with Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka both having departed the team. Don't get me wrong, the Thunder are still a quality team no doubt but a lot of the scoring load will now be on Russell Westbrook's shoulders and yet he is still also supposed to be a key distributor at the point position. That said, some adjustment time is likely early this season. Philadelphia is fired up about this opportunity to host a strong Western Conference opponent in a nationally televised match-up to open their season. Even though Ben Simmons got hurt in the preseason and is out until at least January, Joel Embiid is finally healthy and he and Dario Saric both looked strong in the preseason while big man Jahlil Okafor is also probable for tonight's game and that offsets the loss of Nerlins Noel to injury. Honestly with Embiid, Okafor, and Noel, the 76'ers had one too many big men. With one being out due to injury they'll be just fine. In terms of ATS history, Philadelphia has covered 3 of the last 4 meeting including each of the last two at home. The 76'ers are on a 15-4 ATS run against Northwest Division opponents and the Thunder are on a 5-15 ATS run against Atlantic Division opponents. Overall, in non-conference games, OKC is on an ugly 24-35 ATS run and the Sixers are on a solid 37-21 ATS run. Look for the Sixers to keep this game much closer than many are expecting as the Thunder look ahead to 5 straight Western Conference match-ups that are up next. Let's face it...could anyone blame OKC for overlooking Philly? 8* PHILADELPHIA 76'ers plus the big points Wednesday

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Tuesday - 8* New York Knicks (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:30 ET - I expect the Knicks to be a much improved team this season and this looks like a great spot to back them right away. They are getting big points because they are visiting the defending NBA champs on opening night. The key to the value here is that the Knicks now have Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah. These are two former Bulls that helped challenge the Cavs greatly in recent match-ups. It was mostly Rose last season as Noah was hurt for much of the year but the Bulls were tough on the Cavs last season. Also, remember that is was the prior season's post-season (May 2015) when both Noah and Rose were on the floor and though Chicago lost that series 4 games to 2, two of the losses came by 5 points or less. The Cavaliers aren't going to hit the floor hitting on all cylinders tonight (no NBA team does right away in the first game). With that said, they're going to be in for a dogfight from a hungry Knicks team that still has veteran Carmelo Anthony plus a rising young star in Kristaps Porzingis. New York can put up big points and has plenty of go-to options on offense and they will keep this game much closer than many expect. Keep in mind the Knicks have covered each of their last 3 visits to Cleveland. Even though the big ceremony will take place in Cleveland tonight for the World Champion Cavs, truth be told, there is more attention right now on the Indians in Cleveland as they take on the Cubs in Game 1 of the World Series. The Knicks are a real threat for an upset tonight and if the Cavaliers do pull away late, it is hard to work up to a double digit margin in a game that is tight all the way to latter stages of fourth quarter. The Knicks are hungry for a strong start after making big noise in the off-season. As for the Cavs, they are known for slow starts and are a combined 24-38 ATS in games prior to the All Star break the past two seasons. 8* NEW YORK KNICKS plus the big points Tuesday Night.

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers +5 @ Golden State @ 8 ET - The pressure has now all been shifted to the Warriors. After being down 3 games to 1 in this series, the Cavaliers have battled back to knot the series up at 3 and force a Game 7. It would be a monumental failure for Golden State to lose this series on their home floor after being up 3 game to 1. The problem this is creating for the Warriors is the last thing that a team needs is pressure when they already were not shooting the ball well. Believe it or not Golden State has now been held to 42.1% or less from the field in 4 straight games! Conversely, Cleveland is feeling the positive energy of having given themselves a chance in an "anything can happen" Game 7 and the Cavs are riding a wave of emotions that has seen them shoot the ball very well the last 4 games in this series. The Cavaliers have shot at least 46.9% from the field in 4 straight games including an incredible 51.9% or better in 3 of those 4 games. The absence of big man Andrew Bogut in the middle will continue to be an impact for the Warriors interior defense here in Game 7 as well. The fact we are getting 5 points with the team that has won three of the last four games in this series by a double digit margin is a tremendous value given the situational momentum and pressure factors here as well. Look for the Cavaliers to get the upset win here but if they do fall short I expect it to be an epic finish decided by just one possession as the Cavs get the cash either way to finish 9-4 ATS this season in games where they are an underdog! *10* CLEVELAND

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers -2 vs Golden State @ 9 PM ET - With this line now settling in at a -2 as of Wednesday evening, it is "go time" for me with the Cavaliers. Even though Draymond Green is expected back for the Warriors, the absence of Andrew Bogut is likely to prove to be more impacting than many expect. Even though Bogut hasn't played a lot of minutes in these finals, he has played key minutes where he has a been a force in the paint on the defensive end and he's also been big with some key boards underneath as well. Another key is that Green certainly has been known to get himself into foul trouble and now Bogut is not available to help balance that. The biggest key of all for this game is LeBron James and Company being fired up (which they are!) about the opportunity to have this Game 6 at home and to be able to force an "anything can happen" Game 7. The Cavaliers also want to atone for a poor game in Game 4 on their home floor after they were so dominant for the home fans in their big Game 3 win in Cleveland. Even though Golden State got that win in Game 4 in Cleveland it is important to note that the Warriors have shot 42.1% or worse from the field in THREE STRAIGHT games now. The only reason they won Game 4 was because of some hot three point shooting. That is unlikely to be repeated here as the Warriors have been held to 33.3% or less from beyond the arc in 3 of the last 4 games. James and the Cavs are so hungry I just don't see them being denied for a 2nd time on their home floor in this series. Keep in mind, the Cavs had won 8 straight playoff home games in this post-season before that Game 4 loss. They respond tonight by NOT disappointing the home fans in the proverbial must win situation. *10* CLEVELAND

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers +6 @ Golden State @ 9 ET - Not only is Draymond Green expected to be out (suspension) for the Warriors but the Cavs LeBron James is fired up. Those two factors, in my opinion, are not properly factored into this line and there is tremendous line value with the Cavaliers as a sizable dog in a "win or go home" game. Certainly Cleveland disappointed in Game 4 but they will make up for it in Game 5. The Cavs are 16-6 straight-up this season when off of an upset loss as a favorite. The Warriors are only 8-8 ATS the past three seasons when off of an upset win as an underdog. The point is that the situational factors here favor the Cavaliers. Certainly Golden State is hoping to avoid a trip back to Cleveland but I see the hungriest Cavs team you've ever seen taking the floor tonight and I fully expect the outright win as they dominate the boards and get back to shutting down Stephen Curry like they were doing earlier in this series. The Warriors star had a breakout game in Game 4 but we've seen shooting slumps throughout this series for Curry and his teammates. That resumes tonight and Golden State will be in a dogfight tonight just to win this game...let alone get the cover. Grab the value with the points! *10* CLEVELAND

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (-) vs Golden State @ 9 ET - The "knee-jerk reaction" here would be to back the Warriors as they may be expected to bounce back off of an embarrassing loss. However, the reality is that Golden State simply has not played that well on the road in this post-season. With their ugly loss at Cleveland on Wednesday, the Warriors have now lost 5 of their 8 post-season road games. Additionally, they really didn't play that well in 2 of the 3 road wins they did get. Their 7 point wins at Portland (on May 9th, should have blasted them) and at Oklahoma City (on May 28th, were down most of game) truly did not indicate any type of road dominance. The most dominating road win that Golden State has had in this post-season was when they blew out the Rockets in Houston on April 24th and that dominance was put on display in the second half AFTER Stephen Curry got hurt just before half-time. The fact is that Curry is not playing that well in this series and the Warriors are likely to be in trouble again in Game 4 as the Cavaliers are now 8-0 at home in the post-season with an average margin of victory of 22 points per win. The Cavs are simply a different team at home and the hunger of LeBron James and Company was on full display in Game 3 and I expect to see a repeat of the aggressive style in Game 4. Certainly this game is likely to be much closer than the Game 3 win but, that said, there is still great value only having to lay a very small number here with the Cavs. Look for the Cavaliers to continue dominating the glass and look for the Warriors shooting struggles away from home (under 41.5% from the field in 3 straight games) to continue Friday. *10* CLEVELAND

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers +7 @ Golden State @ 8:05 ET - The Warriors won Game 1 of the Finals Thursday by 15 points so I have a quick question for you. How big was Golden State's lead when only a minute and a half was left in the 3rd quarter? It's a trick question of course! The Warriors weren't even winning the game at that point. Cleveland led the game with 13.5 minutes to go. The fact is that credit certainly should go to the Warriors for the way they pulled away but the Cavaliers have now shaken off any remaining rust from the layoff after knocking off the Raptors and the Cavs will be ready in Game 2. I don't expect Cleveland to again shoot 38% from the field and certainly their rebounding edge is worth mentioning as I expect that to continue. The Cavaliers are the hungrier team but turned the ball over too much in Game One and certainly faded down the stretch which is certainly atypical of a team led by LeBron James. The Cavs will respond as they've done many times before in situations like this. Since the last time they faced Golden State in regular season action (January 18th) the Cavaliers had been held to 40% or less from the field only 7 times. Cleveland won their next game 6 of the 7 times. Of course we don't have to get a SU win here to get the cash but that factor has me raising this selection to a top play as the value is certainly there with the points. In Game One the Cavs were only getting 5.5 or 6 points but now, as of Friday night at least, the Cavs are getting 6.5 or 7 points. It's a lot of value for the betting markets to be giving to a hungry dog that "hung with" the Warriors for 3 full quarters before falling apart in the 4th quarter Thursday. I don't see a repeat of the collapse in Game Two and it would not surprise me to see the Cavs when this outright as Kyrie Irving responds off of a tough game. Grab the significant points here. *10* CLEVELAND +7

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers +6 @ Golden State @ 9:05 ET Thursday - The Warriors snuck by the Thunder but it wasn't pretty. This is not the same Golden State that simply steamrolled opposition during the majority of the regular season. The Warriors have been tested both mentally and physically by having to come back from a 3-1 series deficit to knock off the Thunder. Certainly Golden State deserves credit for that but now they face a Cavaliers team that is healthier than ever with the Big Three of LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love. Last year was so frustrating for Cleveland...thinking of what might have been. Now they finally get a chance (healthy!) to redeem themselves and they have a huge edge of being able to sit back and watch the Warriors having to throw everything they had at Oklahoma City just to get to this point while the Cavs were resting up and game planning for this opportunity. As result of this, I fully expect the Cavaliers to jump on the Warriors and hit them hard early in Game One. We get line value because of the Cavs being on the road and Golden State's home court edge certainly is not as dominant as it had looked. The Warriors at home had a few miracle covers, got upset by the Thunder in one game, and even barely got by the Blazers in GS when they closed out that series. Conversely, the Cavaliers are definitely playing their best basketball of the season. The Cavs are 12-2 SU in these playoffs and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 postseason games. LeBron and Company have been waiting for this opportunity for so long and don't forget that last season Kyrie Irving was only able to play in one game in these finals and Kevin Love missed all 6 games. LeBron James felt he had a lot on his shoulders in this series last year (to say the least) but now has his full supporting cast. The results should be a fantastic rematch and I expect the Cavs to "steal" game one but certainly am grabbing the points which offer exceptional value and that makes this one a Top Play for me. *10* Cleveland

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder +7.5 @ Golden State @ 9 ET - There is no denying that the Thunder lost a heart-breaker in Game 6 on Saturday. They looked like the right side to have, no question about it, for all but the last few minutes of the game. If there is one team that has already shown multiple times this post-season that they could bounce back from a bad game without question, it is Oklahoma City. It would not surprise me to see the Thunder win this game outright at Golden State. The Warriors no longer have the same invincibility they had on their home floor before the post-season got underway. Additionally, the 7 point margin of victory for the Warriors in Game 6 helps lead to line value here because a turnover-plagued final few minutes of the game is what resulted in the Thunder giving that game away. It had no business being a 7 point final in favor of Golden State. The result of that though is additional line value here for Oklahoma City. Certainly it is highly unlikely that the Thunder are again going to get outscored 63 to 9 from three point land! That 54 point margin of difference from beyond the arc certainly played a large role in the outcome of the game as the Warriors made 21 of 44 three pointers while the Thunder made only 3 of 23. Oklahoma City has the resolve and the right match-up edges to beat the Warriors at Golden State. Even if they do fall short the last two OKC losses in this series have come by just single digits. Everyone has seen, throughout this postseason, that the Thunder are loaded with grit and determination. They now have lost back to back games to the Warriors and this is noteworthy because Oklahoma City has not lost three straight games in nearly SEVEN months! All the way back in early November is the only time this entire season that OKC has lost three straight games. If they do lose this one straight-up, I look for the Thunder to still get the cash but I absolutely expect them to play their toughest, strongest, grittiest game of the post-season and I look for them to dominate the boards and for the shooting stats from three point land to play out much differently in this one. Keep in mind, the Warriors had been held to 32% from beyond the arc in the past three games combined before the insane shooting night in Game 6. The Thunder are fired up after what happened on their home floor and they'll be regrouped and ready to win for the 6th time in 9 road games this postseason and, keep in mind, that's an impressive road stat when you consider that Golden State and San Antonio (OKC's prior series) were the two best home teams in the regular season! *10* OKLAHOMA CITY

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder -2 vs Golden State @ 9:05 ET Saturday - Amazingly the Thunder have not lost back to back games since early April. Oklahoma City put up a good fight at Golden State in Game 5 Thursday night but they fell just short. Now we catch the Thunder off of a loss which is a situation that has seen them go 6-0 SU and 6-0 ATS dating back to early April. Oklahoma City won those 6 games by an incredible average margin of 24 points per victory! Included in this perfect run is a 28 point victory over Golden State in Game 3 of this series after dropping Game 2 on the road. I don't expect this game to necessarily be decided by such a blowout margin but I certainly like having Oklahoma City on their home floor laying only a bucket in a spot where they've dominated for many weeks. The Thunder have won 12 of their last 14 home games and the Warriors, once consider invincible, have lost 4 of their 6 road playoff games. Curry, Thompson, and Green combined to make only 5 of 19 three pointers in Game 5 and though that still managed to "cut it" on their home floor, that won't get the job done on the road in Game 6. The bad news for Warriors fans is that the Golden State shooting is unlikely to improve on the road. The Thunder play in a raucous arena where they control the tempo and their defensive stops really get the arena rocking. Oklahoma City has held Golden State to only 30% from three point land in the two games in OKC in this series so far. The Thunder had a huge rebounding edge in each of the two games played at Oklahoma City and Durant, Westbrook, and Roberson all had double digits in boards in Game 4 here. The Thunder have proven all along that they have the talent level and moxie to match up with the Warriors and OKC big man Adams, along with the defensive presence of Ibaka, continue to show the "grit" of the Thunder. With the hunger that all these players, led especially by Durant and Westbrook, have shown throughout these playoffs, I do not see these guys being denied on their home floor. Therefore, the short number here is truly a fantastic value and I look for the Thunder to advance to the NBA Finals as they once again "step up" on their home floor off of a loss. *10* OKLAHOMA CITY

Rickenbach NBA *8* Golden State Warriors Pick'em @ Oklahoma City @ 9 ET - Just when you think it may be "over" for Golden State, look for them to fight back. I have been riding Oklahoma City throughout this post-season as they upset the Spurs when no one gave them a chance and now against the Warriors they may very well pull off the series upset as well. However, I expect this game to go to Golden State in full "bounce back" mode. I can use the "straight up" trends here rather than the ATS trends since the line is a pick'em and the SU results are especially noteworthy. The Warriors are 12-0 (10-2 ATS) this season when playing with revenge. Also, when off of an upset loss as a favorite, Golden State has gone 11-0 (8-2-1 ATS) this season. After a loss by 10 points or more, the Warriors are 6-0 (4-2 ATS) this season. When trailing in a playoff series the past few seasons, Golden State is a combined 5-0 SU and ATS! No matter how you look at it this is definitely a team that knows how to respond to a disappointing effort and certainly the 133 points allowed on Sunday has the full attention of coach Steve Kerr and this Warriors team. They will assuredly respond in Game 4 on Tuesday. Also note the following in-season trends for the Thunder that are "in play" tonight: Oklahoma City is 1-3 ATS when off of an upset win as an underdog and also 14-21 ATS after allowing 105 points or more in their prior game. *8* GOLDEN STATE 

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5 @ Toronto @ 8:35 ET - After going 10-0 to open up the playoffs, the Cavaliers finally lost one on Saturday at Toronto. Of the Cavs most recent 9 wins, only 2 came by a single digit margin. With Cleveland 15-5 SU off of an upset loss as a favorite and 6-2 SU this season when off of a loss by a margin of 10 points or more, the Cavaliers can be expected to bounce back here. Certainly Toronto deserves credit for their fantastic performance in Game Three but you can bet (literally!) that the Cavaliers will make the appropriate adjustments. You can also bet that Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving aren't going to combine to again go 4 for 28 from the field like they did on Saturday! The Cavs still lead this series 2 games to 1 and the Cavaliers are 14-2 SU (and 10-6 ATS) the past three seasons combined when they are leading in a playoff series. The Cavs will make some changes to counter the production of the Raptors Bismack Biyombo who had a huge game on the board and on defense in Game 3. Toronto is 5-9 ATS this season (and 14-24 ATS the past three seasons) when they are off of an upset win as an underdog. Also, this is still a Raptors teams that has gone 8-19 ATS in all playoff games the past three seasons combined. If this game was in Cleveland the Cavs would be favored by at least double what the spread is for this one. Take advantage of the line value of the Cavaliers being on the road in a bounce back spot. It is payback time for LeBron James and company Monday. *10* CLEVELAND

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder +3 vs Golden State @ 8 ET Sunday - The long layoff between games two and three of this series is a huge benefit for the Thunder. The best thing for the Warriors after they blew out Oklahoma City in Game Two on Wednesday would have been to walk right back onto the court Friday and pick up right where they left off. Instead, based on a scheduling quirk, not only is the West off on Friday when you would have expected them to play next, they don't even play Saturday either. This a huge edge for the Thunder who have plenty of time to regroup and prepare to get back on track after Game Two got away from them. Oklahoma City was actually tied with the Warriors with about a minute and a half to go in the second quarter Wednesday when Golden State suddenly erupted. That big push right before half that opened up a solid Warriors lead of 7 points at the half changed the momentum of the game and the mindset of the Thunder who had battled so hard to stay with Golden State all the way in the first 23 minutes of the game just like they did in all 48 on Monday when they got that upset win over the Warriors. The Thunder now have had a full chance to regroup and are still happy they got the split in Golden State. Also, an angry Russell Westbrook (rough game two for him) is a focused Russell Westbrook and that means his "A game" will be brought to Game 3 on Sunday. Just like he did against the Spurs, Westbrook is capable of elevating his level of play and very nearly practically willing his team to victory. When the Warriors got blasted at San Antonio in the second round, they responded by winning the next game and gutting out the victory even though the game was at San Antonio. Now, they are in a "bounce back" mode again and they get this game on their home floor where the Thunder have won 10 of their last 12 games and the 2 losses came by a total of only 5 points. In the playoffs Golden State is only 2-2 on the road and they faced a Houston team wrought with team chemistry issues and a Trail Blazers team that only advanced because the Clippers lost both their star players (Paul and Griffin). The point is that the Warriors haven't exactly been "road warriors" in these playoffs and now they face a team with a ton of talent, a rebounding machine, and that plays with tons of heart and intensity especially when on their home floor. Look for the Thunder to even this up on Sunday night. Huge edge with the extra prep time for coach Billy Donovan and Company to regroup for this one. *10* OKLAHOMA CITY

Rickenbach NBA *8* Oklahoma City Thunder +9 @ Golden State @ 9:05 ET - In the tradition of the "zig zag" theory I am quite sure most of the world is going to be lined up on the Warriors tonight. But, just like how I rode the Thunder in their road games at San Antonio I am recommending the same thing in Game Two of this series as what I recommended in Game One. Grab the generous points with Oklahoma City. What is being over-estimated here is how Golden State simply must bounce back at home after already losing a game in this series. Remember how the same things was being said about San Antonio (no way they lose on their home floor twice)? What is being underestimated here is that neither Andrew Bogut nor Steph Curry are truly 100%. The Warriors were a -6 with Bogut on the floor in game one and Golden State also was a -6 with Curry on the floor in game one. Curry even had an uncharacteristic 7 turnovers in the game. The worst news of all for GS is that Oklahoma City won Game One even though Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook shot a combined 17 of 51 (33%) from the field! That is SCARY news for the Warriors. Not one but BOTH of the Thunder stars had "off games" Monday and yet Oklahoma City still got the upset win AT Golden State. Wednesday could spell disaster for the Warriors. Why? Because the Thunder can be extremely aggressive, relentless, and relaxed all at the same time! Why is that? Because after today this series takes a break until Sunday at Oklahoma City. The Thunder have already "stolen" a game at Golden State. The extra rest coming up after tonight's game means that OKC can "go for the jugular" tonight and put a ton of pressure on the Warriors and a ton of energy into this contest. Durant and Westbrook played a lot of minutes in Game One and, with the way the scheduling works out, there is no reason they can't do it again in Game Two. As far as what I mean by "relaxed" there is no pressure on the Thunder here. None whatsover. They already got a win at GS. That means tonight I look for MORE of Durant's and Westbrook's shots to fall. They will be relaxed and in a better flow offensively and this spells trouble for Golden State. The only reason I am not going with a top play here is that I certainly do respect the Warriors here and I already had a big top play in going against them in Game One. However, I do absolutely feel that this is a great situation for the Thunder while the whole world is likely to line up on Golden State. Even more line value for dog players. Grab it. *8* OKLAHOMA CITY

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder +7.5 @ Golden State @ 9:05 ET - The Thunder continue to get very little credit for having dispatched of the Spurs. Remember that everyone was saying they couldn't wait to see San Antonio match-up with Golden State in the Western Conference Finals. The clamoring about the Spurs/Warriors impending series came even larger when SA annihilated OKC by 32 points in Game 1 of their 2nd round series. Of course now that the Thunder went on to win 4 of the last 5 games including each of the next two match-ups in San Antonio, everyone is just saying that the Spurs were old, coach Popovich has lost his abilities, etc. The point I am making is many just don't realize how good this OKC team is. The Thunder dominate the boards because they have big men like Adams and Kanter and Ibaka is a continued force defensively and on the glass. These are the guys you hear less about because, of course, Durant and Westbrook are the stars that get all the hype. The fact is that the Thunder are well coached (give Donovan some credit!) and are built well to give the Warriors some trouble in this series. The fact that one of Golden State's big men, Bogut, is likely to play tonight but is still trying to work his way back from an injury and Curry still may not be 100% combines to give even more value to the underdog Thunder here. The Warriors are certainly a phenomenal team but let's not forget that their first round opponent was a dysfunctional Rockets team filled with internal conflict and their 2nd round opponent was lucky to even be there. Why was Portland lucky? Because the injuries to the Clippers Griffin and Paul prevented what would have been a dandy of a 2nd round showdown between the Clips and the Warriors. The point is that Golden State hasn't really been tested yet but they're about to get tested fully by a full-tilt Thunder attack that has no fear of anyone. They are playing like a team that is possessed as they attack the boards and rotate well on defense, etc. I like hungry dogs and teams that feel like they are being given no respect. Everyone is already talking about how the NBA Finals will play out featuring the Cavs versus Warriors! The Thunder have heard and have plenty of motivation here...not that a shot at the NBA Finals isn't already motivation enough. An outright upset in Game One is what I expect but of course I am grabbing the available points. This is the game the Thunder could catch the Warriors a little overconfident. It is a fantastic situational play and that's why it gets my highest rating! *10* OKLAHOMA CITY

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Miami Heat +4.5 @ Toronto @ 3:35 ET - This series has been so tight with many close games that, first off, there is simply inherent value in having the points in this match-up. However, there is certainly some other strong reasoning for grabbing Miami in this one. Toronto simply relies too heavily on their backcourt and the overall poor shooting from their star guards has certainly hurt the Raptors throughout this series. Toronto's reliance on their backcourt has become an even bigger issue with the injury to big man Jonas Valanciunas as his absence means even more of the scoring load falls on the Raptors guards. Toronto has a history that does not bode well for a huge Game 7 match-up like this whereas the Heat have proven time and time again that they are resilient with Dwyane Wade leading the way. Miami has won 3 straight series where the Heat were down 3-2 in each series. This is part of a long-term run for Miami that has seen them go 7-1 in elimination games. Simply put, the Heat have shown they can be at their best when they are feeling the "heat". This is certainly not the case for the Raptors who, with Friday's loss, are now 2-6 all-time in games where they have a chance to eliminate their opponent. Overall, Toronto is 6-17 ATS in all playoff games the past three seasons. Conversely, the Heat are now on a long-term 36-20 run in second round playoff games. Miami is also 11-2 SU in Sunday games this season while Toronto is 5-10 ATS. If the Raptors eke out the win here it is likely to be by a single possession or on a last second shot. But, truly, there is every reason to believe the Heat win this game outright and certainly the line value (in this fiercely contested series) is with having the handful of points. *10* MIAMI

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Miami Heat -4 vs Toronto @ 8:05 ET - The Heat came back from 20 points down against the Raptors in Game 5 and that was on the road. Miami cut the Toronto lead from 20 all the way down to just 1 in the fourth quarter. That says a lot about this Heat team even though they ultimately fell short of the cover against the Raptors on Wednesday. Look for Miami to bounce back tonight on their home floor. Dwayne Wade was drafted all the way back in 2003 and only two times since then has an Eastern foe ever managed to win two games in Miami in a series. The Raptors already stole one in this series and I don't see them winning another one here. Toronto is an ugly 1-4 all-time in their series closeout opportunities away from home. The Heat are 7-1 the last 8 times they faced elimination and that includes already going 2-0 in that situation this season as they rallied from a 3-2 deficit to knock off the Hornets in round one of this post-season. The Raptors finally got big games from their key scorers in Game 5 but, overall, Toronto's highly regarded back-court has shot poorly in this series, and I look for the subpar shooting to resume now that the Raptors are back on the road for Game 6. Toronto is 0-6 all-time when leading in a playoff series including 1-5 ATS. Conversely, the Heat are on a long-term 27-18 SU and ATS run when trailing in a playoff series. The Heat have been playing excellent defense in this post-season and the small number on this game makes the home team well worth the investment as their 4 home wins in this post-season have come by an average margin of 21 points per game. *10* MIAMI

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder +2 vs San Antonio @ 8:35 ET - All the talk in San Antonio was about how the Spurs would match up with the Warriors in the next series. Maybe the talk should have focused on how much Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker have aged! Of course the Spurs have new younger talent like LaMarcus Aldridge and Kawhi Leonard but there is only so much those guys can do. What the Spurs have quickly found out is that the overall talent and athleticism of the Thunder - including stars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook - could prove to be too much. Having to head for Oklahoma City in Game 6 and facing elimination, some may expect the Spurs to rally the troops but, after blowing a 13 point lead in Game 5 on their home floor, it is evident who wants this series more. That said, I don't see the Thunder blowing the opportunity to close this series out on their home floor. History is certainly not on the Spurs side here because coach Gregg Popovich has a 2-10 record...you read that write...just 2 wins in 12 chances when on the road in the playoffs and facing elimination. Many of those came by double digits and nearly all of them came by at least 7 points. That said, to be getting OKC as a home dog here means even more value because many times the Spurs have fallen well short in a spot like this. Aldridge started this series in fantastic fashion but has now struggled for three straight games. Danny Green had a big game 5 but it would be tough to duplicate that shooting effort on the road. He only made 30% of his threes on the road in the regular season and big scoring efforts from him have been infrequent this season. The Spurs have covered only 5 of their last 14 road games and 2 of those covers came against Memphis and 1 against Minnesota. San Antonio just hasn't been up to par against the better teams in the league and the Thunder certainly are roaring like a freight train right now and I don't see the Spurs being able to successfully stop them in Oklahoma City given the hunger this team has put on full display in coming back from a 2-1 series deficit. *10* OKLAHOMA CITY

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers +13 @ Golden State @ 10:35 ET - The Trail Blazers have had the lead at half in each of the last 3 games and the average margin was 10 points in favor of Portland! Give the Warriors credit for coming back to win 2 of those 3 games. However, all 4 games in this series have been decided by 12 points or less and one of those two aforementioned wins came in OT as Stephen Curry put on a ridiculous performance in the extra stanza. Arguably one of the greatest OT performances of all time. Curry though is actually part of the key as to why I like this play so much. I don't see Portland going away without a fight in this series. The Trail Blazers have shown plenty of heart and grit and while they are certainly disappointed about the Game 4 loss in OT they also are professional players that know their season is over if they do not win tonight. That said, I look for the Blazers to give another huge effort tonight and even if Golden State still manages to get a big lead and is up by say 15 points as we get into the latter stages of this game, do you really think Curry is going to be on the floor? Of course not! The Warriors need to protect their star players (in particularly that star) and that means if they are up big late in this game they definitely need to be sitting guys. They will start looking ahead at facing either OKC or SA in the Western Conference finals and Golden State will certainly be more concerned with staying healthy for that match-up rather than worrying about whether or not they win this game by 15 points or just 10 points or even high single digits for the final margin. The point is that all of the above is IF the Warriors are up huge. I honestly would not be surprised, based on how Game 4 played out WITH Curry on the floor, if the Blazers are in this game all the way. This is their season on the line and they dominated the glass in Monday's game but just got a little sloppy with too many turnovers in the game. Even with that it was still a game decided in OT. Portland is 9-4 ATS this season when playing with home loss revenge. Certainly Golden State has been a "covering machine" while the Trail Blazers have not but the Warriors certainly were fortunate in their Game 4 cover and that is helping to result in an inflated line here for Game 5. I'll gladly step in and take advantage of the big number as per the reasoning above. *10* PORTLAND

Rickenbach NBA *8* Miami Heat +4.5 or 5 @ Toronto @ 8:05 ET - After opening up at Toronto -4 this line quickly moved to -4.5 and we are now seeing lines as high as -5 as of early gameday morning. The Raptors are getting the money as many expect them to bounce back on their home floor. However, let's not forget that 3 of the 4 games in this series have gone to overtime. Also, the one game that didn't was only decided by 4 points. Considering those factors as well as the absence of the Raptors Jonas Valanciunas being more costly than the absence of Hassan Whiteside in terms of how those two bigs had contributed early in the series, and you have the makings of some extreme line value here with taking the points. The Raptors backcourt continues to struggle as they've shot poorly for weeks now! Simply put, Toronto is nothing special and yet they're grabbing the money right now in this critical Game 5 situation. I'll gladly grab the team that has a history of more postseason success and is getting a handful of points here. Miami is 6-3 SU and ATS in 2nd round playoff games the past three seasons. The Raptors are 5-16 ATS in all playoff games the past three seasons. Also, the continued low-scoring trend in this series favors gritty Miami over the Raptors without Valanciunas. Miami is 13-5 SU when they enter a game off of 3 or more consecutive unders while the Raptors are 5-7 SU (and 2-10 ATS!) in the same situation. The Heat keep grinding tonight and the value is with the points until the Raptors can prove otherwise in this series. *8* MIAMI

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder +7 @ San Antonio @ 8:00 ET - The Spurs are 43-2 SU at home and most of you have probably heard or are not surprised to hear that record as San Antonio's home dominance was well-documented this season. However, many of you might be surprised to know that the Spurs are only 6-10 ATS in their last 16 home games. Two of those ATS covers came at the expense of the Grizzlies in the first round. Memphis had a roster that was so depleted they honestly might have lost a series against the NCAA Champion Villanova Wildcats, let alone having to play the Spurs. By the way, the Spurs last 5 games against good teams (Golden State, Oklahoma City, and Toronto) saw San Antonio go just 1-4 ATS with 2 of the 4 losses being outright losses. I am not necessarily saying the Thunder win this game outright but it truly would not be a complete surprise. The original Big 3 of the Spurs: Parker, Ginobili, and especially Duncan are all showing their age. That said, are Leonard and Aldridge enough to get past Westbrook and Durant of the Thunder. I think this is going to be an epic battle the rest of the way and, in a game five that should be very tight, grabbing the big points is the way to go. Keep in mind, ever since that crazy first game where OKC got a wake-up call, the last 3 games have featured 2 Thunder wins and 1 Thunder loss by just four points. That game was decided on a late offensive rebound of a missed free throw for San Antonio. Had OKC grabbed that board, the Thunder would have had the ball with a chance to win or tie the game at the end of regulation. The whole point is that not a lot of margin separates these teams but the whole world is likely to be lining up on San Antonio in this one. True to form, I like to be a contrarian and it has served me well through the years. I'll grab the generous points as the Thunder know that, to advance, they still have to win a game in San Antonio. In other words, no let up here, no loss of emotional edge. The Thunder come out just as focused as the Spurs in this one. *10* OKLAHOMA CITY

Rickenbach NBA *10* Miami Heat -5.5 vs Toronto @ 8 ET - All the games in this series have been tight but this looks like the game where all that changes. The injury issue with Jonas Valanciunas of the Raptors is a big deal. Yes, I am well aware of the Hassan Whiteside injury for the Heat and the fact that Chris Bosh has been a long-term absence for Miami. However, Valanciunas is truly a key, integral part of the Toronto interior and his production is going to be difficult to replace if he's unable to play for any significant amount of time (and he's out for this series). Couple that with the fact that the Heat are looking to bounce back off of a rare home loss and you have the makings of a home rout in this Game 4 match-up that is absolutely key for Miami to win to get back into this series. Keep in mind that the Raptors were up by 13 points very early in the 3rd quarter when Valanciunas got hurt. That means the Heat essentially won the 2nd half (nearly all of that half) of the game by 9 points as they went on to lose the game by 4 points. The significance in that is that, at home and seeking revenge and facing the Raptors without Valanciunas (out for the series) perhaps the Heat win this one by 9 points in each half and get an 18 point win! Honestly that result would not surprise as, even though Whiteside is an important piece to the Heat, Valanciunas is even more important to the Raptors. Toronto's win at Miami Saturday resulted in their 1st ATS cover in their last 7 games. The Heat had covered 10 of their last 15 games before the game three defeat. The Raptors are 5-15 ATS in all playoff games the last three seasons and 0-3 ATS when leading in a playoff series. Toronto is also 14-23 ATS when off of an upset win as an underdog. The Heat went 11-6 ATS this season when off of an upset loss as a favorite and are also 11-5 ATS this season when playing with home loss revenge. *10* MIAMI

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder +1.5 vs San Antonio @ 8:00 ET - The Spurs snuck out the Game 3 win but I don't see the Thunder losing two straight on their home floor. Westbrook had an awful shooting night Friday and I don't foresee that being repeated here. Straight up trends can be discussed here because this line is right around the pick'em range and the Thunder have gone 11-2 this season when playing with home loss revenge. Also, when trailing in a playoff series the Thunder have gone 6-2 the past three seasons. One of the few roles that the Spurs have struggled in is that of the road favorite. They were somewhat fortunate to get the cover in Game 3 as Leonard got a huge offensive rebound for them off of a free throw miss. Otherwise the game likely would have ended with the Spurs losing on a last second three pointer or winning by no more than 2 points and many (including myself) had the +2.5 in that game with OKC. In this game 4 match-up the line is SA by 1.5 or 1 as of early gameday morning. Note that San Antonio was 7-13 SU and ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less before notching that Game 3 win as a small road fave. So they bucked a 65% play against situation in Game 3 but the Spurs are unlikely to win again in a similar situation considering the Thunder have more than just home revenge on their minds. OKC knows that if they lose tonight the series is essentially over because winning 3 straight (including 2 more times in SA) is highly unlikely. That means tonight is the true definition of a must win. Now I don't just blindly play "must win" situations and certainly have played against them often in the past but, in this case, knowing the Thunder lost the turnover battle and rebounding battle in Game 3 plus shot poorly and yet still only lost the game by 4 points...I am backing the home team tonight. Westbrook has made just 26 of 75 shots in this series. That's not going to continue at home in Game 4. He had a huge statement game at home in Game 5 against Dallas and that finished the Mavericks off. That was a big game and he'll step up again here and help lead the way to another critical home win as the Thunder get back into this series by evening it up tonight. *10* OKLAHOMA CITY

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder +2.5 vs San Antonio @ 9:35 ET - In typical "zig zag" fashion, this line opened up with Oklahoma City favored by a point and a half and the Thunder are now as high as a two and a half point dog in this one. Of course everyone saw the Spurs fall just short at home on Monday and so the whole world couldn't believe the odds makers had the "gall" to favor the Thunder in Game 3. As a result, tons of support flooded in on the Spurs as there is no way the Spurs could lose back to back games, right? In my humble opinion, you better believe they could. San Antonio had a great regular season particularly at home and they play great "system" basketball. However, the Spurs Big 3 of Ginobili, Parker, and Duncan certainly isn't what it once was. As a result, guys like Kahwi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge fill the most important roles now. However, is this really going to be enough to carry the Spurs through this series when guys like Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are so determined for the Thunder. Oklahoma City is a confident group on their home floor and has had great success in recent home meetings against the Spurs. In fact, OKC is 6-2 SU and ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Spurs in Oklahoma City. As a road favorite of 3 points or less the past three seasons the Spurs are 7-13 SU and ATS! In road games this season with a posted total between 200 and 204.5 San Antonio has gone 3-8 ATS this season. The Thunder are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS as a home dog of 3 points or less the past three seasons. They are playing with the mentality of an "underdog edginess" against the Spurs while San Antonio has been calling for Golden State ever since they swept an injury-ravaged Memphis team and then dominated the Thunder in the first game of this series. What Game Two did, with the tight Thunder win, was totally change the emotions and motivation of this series and I'll gladly fade the line move in this one because, ladies and gentlemen, we have a series on our hands here. This is going to be an all out war and the Spurs lost their moxie with the Game Two loss. *10* OKLAHOMA CITY

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Miami Heat +4.5 @ Toronto @ 8:05 ET - On the one hand, the Raptors could be a little more relaxed now that they finally got out of the first round. On the other hand, this could be a big letdown spot for Toronto as they had so much emotion for their huge Game 7 with Indiana where the Raptors finally got over the frustration of recent playoff failures. I foresee the latter. While Toronto exhales a sigh of relief of finally getting a big Game 7 home win, the Heat will come into this game with their typical workmanlike mentality. Comparing the teams, Miami has been playing the much better defense and the Heat used this defense to create some blowout wins as their average margin of victory against Charlotte was 20 points! As for the Raptors, they barely snuck by Indiana. The 3 losses for Toronto came by an average margin of 15 points per game and 3 of the 4 wins came by only a single digit margin and that included the last two victories coming by 5 points or less. The Raptors concerns include the poor shooting of Kyle Lowry as his elbow injury is more of an issue then was previously expected. Also, Toronto is 0-3 in their last 3 Game One home games. Though the Raptors have won 5 of the last 6 regular season meetings with Miami, playoff basketball is a different "animal" and the Heat held Charlotte to 43% or less from the field in all 7 games. The Raptors allowed the Pacers to hit 45% or better from the field in each of the final four games in the series. That has a lot to do with Toronto's 0-4 ATS run and I expect a 5th straight loss for the Raptors at the betting window tonight. *10* MIAMI

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder +8 @ San Antonio @ 9:35 ET - After getting completely steamrolled by the Spurs in Game One, I expect a huge response from the Thunder in Game Two. San Antonio simply could not miss on Saturday as the Spurs were simply on fire from the floor. The game was decided by halftime and the Thunder are fully prepared to respond in Game Two. You can bet (literally) that the Spurs won't again shoot 61% from the floor and 60% from three point land. It was simply "one of those nights" and, not to take anything away from the Spurs, the Thunder are not that "bad" of a team. In fact, when off of a loss by a margin of 10 points or more, Oklahoma City has gone 4-1 SU this season. After allowing 105 points or more this season, the Thunder have gone 25-10 SU. Now, I am certainly not saying that I expect the Thunder to win this game outright as, let's not forget, the Spurs have gone an insane 43-1 at home this season. But, what I am saying is that I expect this game to be decided by no more than a couple buckets. It wasn't like the Thunder had a problem with rebounding or turning the ball over too much in Game One. Again, it was just "one of those nights" and Westbrook, Durant, Ibaka and company will be ready to respond big tonight. Getting off to a great start and keeping the wild San Antonio crowd from getting so raucous early will key what I expect to be a tight, back and forth game tonight. Coach Donovan is a great coach and he will make adjustments for Game Two. When leading in a playoff series the Spurs have gone 10-8 SU and 9-9 ATS the past three seasons combined. When trailing in a playoff series the Thunder have gone 5-2 SU and 4-2-1 ATS the past three seasons. The Spurs are expected to ultimately prevail in this series but it's far from over yet and the Thunder should give one of their best efforts of the entire season tonight after the ridiculous way Game One played out. *10* OKLAHOMA CITY

Rickenbach NBA *8* Atlanta Hawks +8 @ Cleveland @ 7:05 ET - The Cavaliers demolished the Hawks in last year's post-season and that is what is still fresh in everyone's minds. The key to things being different this spring is the Hawks stellar defense as they have been a top defensive team that came on very strong at the end of the season as well. The key to things being particularly different in Game One of this second round series is that the Cavaliers are off of a long layoff. The Cavs swept Detroit in round one and so LeBron James and Company have had a full week off heading into this Monday game. No matter how much you practice or simulate games there is no such thing that compares to the actual game and Cleveland, as a result, is very likely to have some rust here in Game One. Rust won't be an issue for the Hawks as they wrapped up their series with the Celtics on Thursday. Atlanta got a big road win at Boston to wrap up that series and having 3 days off coming into this series is perfect for the Hawks. It's enough time to rest but it's not so much time off that it becomes an issue of losing your rhythm. The latter of which is absolutely what I expect to see happen for Cleveland here in Game One. The Hawks fantastic defense has held 9 of their last 15 opponents under 39.9% from the field! This is quite a contrast in comparison with Cleveland who has allowed 8 consecutive opponents to hit at least 43.5% from the field. Look for the Hawks to be confident on the road here after the big road win at Boston to finish up that series. Atlanta is 51-29 ATS the past three seasons when they are off of a win by a margin of 10 points or more. As for the Cavaliers, they are 9-19 ATS this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. Cleveland may manage to get the home win here but if they do, it is likely to be by a very slim margin as the Hawks have the scheduling edge here and want to prove they are not the same team that the Cavaliers so easily dispatched of last season. *8* ATLANTA

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Indiana Pacers +6 @ Toronto @ 8:05 ET - Forget pointspreads for a minute...let's just talk about some straight-up numbers in this one. The Pacers have won 2 of the last 3 games. They won 2 of the 3 games in Indiana and one could also argue that they should have won 2 of the 3 games in Toronto. Remember the Pacers blew Game 5 here in Toronto as they had a big double digit lead going to the 4th quarter. Indiana showed their resolve and bounced back by getting the home win in Game 6 so that they could force this Game 7. The value that gives us here is that the Pacers have the momentum in the series, they have the confidence of knowing they can win at Toronto (won one here but should have won two), and they've got the psychological factor working in their favor too as the Raptors have such a negative stigma about failing in the playoffs including in Game Sevens on their home floor. Now, all of the above said, this should be simply a fantastic game where it would not surprise if Indiana is the team that ends up advancing. That said, in a series where home court has really proven to not be that big of a deal, if you're going to give me the team with the momentum, the better frame of mind (postseason failures in Toronto's mind), and you're going to give me a half dozen points too...I am going to jump all over that anytime! That is why this is a top play as I look for Paul George to come up huge once again for the Pacers. Indiana is now 8-5 ATS in first round playoff games while the Raptors are 4-12 ATS in first round playoff games the past three seasons. Toronto will be feeling the pressure just win this game...let alone get the cover. I look for a Pacers upset but will grab all the available points in this one. *10* INDIANA 

Rickenbach NBA *8* Portland Trail Blazers +9.5 @ Golden State @ 3:35 ET - Of course it's hard to fade the Warriors when they are hot as they have been but there are a couple of key factors that lead to great value here. One of course is the fact that Stephen Curry is out for Golden State in game one. The other, and perhaps most important, is that the Warriors go from facing a dysfunctional Rockets team to a Trail Blazers team playing with plenty of heart and confidence. Of course the Blazers were able to take advantage of Clippers injuries as the series went on but there is no questioning the fact that the makeup of this team is much different than that of the Rockets team that the Warriors so easily disposed of. This has led to fantastic line value for the underdog Blazers in this one as they have the talented backcourt to match-up well with Golden State on the perimeter (especially in a game where Curry is out). For comparison's sake just look at what Portland did to the Clippers after Chris Paul went out (yes I know Blake Griffin got hurt too but he was out for significant time anyway recently) and compare this with how the Rockets performed against the Warriors after Curry got hurt before half of Game 4. The point is that Golden State, sans Curry, is in for a much bigger challenge here than they got from the Warriors. Big dog value in this one. *8* PORTLAND

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder +6.5 @ San Antonio @ 8:35 ET - The Spurs are 42-1 at home this season and only laying 6.5 points here so they must be the play here, right? Not likely although that is precisely what the odds maker is banking on here to balance the action as, in my opinion, the smart money comes in on the Thunder in this one. Oklahoma City is one of the few teams that has proven to be a tough match-up for the Spurs in recent meetings. The Thunder covered all 4 games with the Spurs this season and though the Spurs won the two home games they were both tight victories. Oklahoma City's tandem of Westbrook and Durant, when healthy, are capable of terrorizing opponents. They come into this series well-rested after easily dismantling the injury-depleted Mavericks. The Spurs also are well rested after easily crushing the even moreso injury-ravaged Grizzlies. The fact that San Antonio wasn't even tested in the first round could be bad news here as they just really faced no adversity and were never challenged because Memphis was so short-handed. At least the Thunder had the 'excitement' of losing game two on their home floor. Oklahoma City responded by winning 3 straight games by an average margin of 18 points per victory to dispatch of Dallas. The Thunder went 7-2 ATS in Saturday games this season and are 16-6 ATS in Saturday games the past three seasons combined. Of course this match-up is billed as offense (OKC) versus defense (SA) and that may not bode well for the Spurs (at least at the betting window) as San Antonio has gone 14-21 ATS in their last 35 games against teams averaging 99 points or more per game on the season. The Spurs take such a huge jump up from facing the injury-ravaged Grizzlies to the fully healthy (and ultra talented) Thunder that I would not be surprised to see a Game One upset. At the very least, look for the road dog cover in this one. *10* OKLAHOMA CITY

Rickenbach NBA *8* Indiana Pacers -2 vs Toronto @ 7:35 ET - Pacers blew a big lead and lost at Toronto in Game 5. Normally that type of defeat is extremely tough to come back from but this situation is very different. Indiana is now back home, they are facing elimination, and they have had two full days of rest to prepare to play their "biggest game of the year" tonight. The Pacers are 12-4 ATS when playing with two days of rest this season and I expect a fresh Paul George to "go off" tonight and lead the way to a Pacers home win. Indiana already faced a "must win" situation in Game 4 of this series when they got down 2 games to 1 and "had to win" at home in Game 4. The result was a dominating 100-83 victory for the Pacers. By rallying on their home floor that night they got back in the series and they can do the same thing tonight to stave off elimination. The Raptors also are battling the post-season "demons" of past exits from the playoffs and that weighs heavily on teams in this situation. With Toronto's non-covering Game 5 win, the Raptors are now 4-11 ATS in playoff games the past three seasons combined. Toronto feels the added pressure here as they had a 3-8 SU mark in playoff games heading into this series with the Pacers. *8* INDIANA 

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Boston Celtics +7 @ Atlanta @ 8:35 ET - The home team has won all four games in this series but that could change tonight. I am certainly grabbing the generous points here but would not be surprised to see the Celtics win outright at Atlanta Tuesday. Simply put, the Hawks failed miserably in Game 4 of this series. They saw Boston make adjustments in Game 3 and then still failed to respond appropriately in Game 4. This is a bad sign for Hawks fans that Celtics coach Brad Stevens is simply staying one step ahead of Atlanta in adjustments throughout this series. Granted, the Game 4 win was an overtime win for the Celtics but that was the kind of "bounce back game" that the Hawks should have won "going away". It's not a good sign the way they struggled. Let's not forget what coach Stevens did at Butler in the college ranks as he relished the "dog role" in leading the Bulldogs to becoming a force despite being a mid-major program. The Celtics have shown marked improvement in Stevens' three seasons with them and this appears to be culminating in what could be a first round upset in the making in this series with the Hawks. Boston has covered 3 of the first 4 games in this series and the Celtics are 18-12 as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points under Stevens. The Hawks are now 10-17 ATS in playoff games the past three seasons and 41-61 ATS in playoff games long-term. When tied in a playoff series the Celtics have a long-term mark of 21-10 SU while the Hawks have a long-term mark of 9-13 ATS. *10* BOSTON +7

Rickenbach NBA *8* Miami Heat +2.5 @ Charlotte @ 7:05 ET - The Hornets feel like they have found the "elixir" after defeating the Heat by double digits on Saturday. However, all that happened is that Miami had one of their worst shooting nights of the season, Charlotte had one of their best games ever as far as fewest turnovers (3), and the Hornets shot extremely well from the free thrown line while the Heat struggled there. The point is that Miami outrebounded Charlotte, got to the free throw line more, and now is highly motivated for Game 4 as they are coming off of a loss. The Nicolas Batum injury situation is still a concern for the Hornets and, while the stars seemed to align for Charlotte in Game 3, they are unlikely to be so fortunate tonight. Miami is fired up and will make the appropriate adjustments here. The Heat are 9-3 SU when leading in a playoff series and they had won 6 straight first round games before the loss Saturday. The Hornets are 1-7 SU when trailing in a playoff series and they had lost ten straight playoff games before the win in Game 3. The Heat went 14-6 SU (and 13-6-1 ATS) when off of a loss by 10 points or more this season. The Hornets quickly come back down to earth tonight after rallying around the Batum ankle injury situation in Game 3. Back to reality in Game 4. *8* MIAMI

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks +2 @ Boston @ 6:05 ET - The Hawks had a big lead in Game One but then blew it late and had to hang on for the 1 point win. Atlanta then dominated Game Two and won by 17 points. In Game Three, the Celtics made adjustments plus had the home court edge and they were the ones that got the big lead. However, the Hawks battled all the way back to tie the game and this was near the midway point of the fourth quarter. The point is that Boston played very nearly their "perfect game" on Friday and yet they still almost blew the game and lost it. I feel we're getting exceptional line value here with the Hawks again getting +2 on the road in Game 4 when one considers how Game 3 played out. You can bet that Atlanta will make adjustments to counteract what the adjustments that Celtics coach Brad Stevens was able to put to work Friday night. Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer will have his team ready to go here and Atlanta will continue to take advantage of Avery Bradley being out for the Celtics. Look for the Hawks to draw plenty of motivation from the Game 3 loss as well as from the exploits (and extracurricular activity) of Isaiah Thomas. Boston had lost 6 straight first round playoff games before the win Friday night. The Hawks have won 27 of their 46 games against teams with a winning record this season. The Celtics, the past three seasons combined, have lost 81 of 121 games against teams with a winning record. Take the better team, the healthier team, the revenge-minded team, and getting points here. Extreme line value. *10* ATLANTA

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks +9.5 vs Oklahoma City @ 8:05 ET - Statistically a bit of a crazy result in Game 3. The Mavericks took very nearly as many shots as the Thunder did from the field and the Mavs hit 47.4% of those shots and yet they lost the game by almost 30 points! So what happened? The Thunder were on fire from three point land while the Mavs struggled from beyond the arc. OKC (15 of 27) outscored Dallas (6 of 24) by 27 points from three point land. That type of statistical discrepancy is certainly unlikely to be repeated again today but the big Oklahoma City win Thursday is helping to keep this line higher than it should be. The Mavs are in an excellent spot as a big road dog and I look for them to put up their best fight of the series in today's game. The Mavericks felt the Thunder were a little "too physical" in in the win on Thursday. That said, Dallas will be looking to redeem themselves with a "not in our house" mentality in Game 4 Saturday night. Keep in mind that the Mavs had won 8 of their last 11 games before that embarrassing loss. Also, the Thunder had lost 6 of their last 10 before that big win. Oklahoma City is 13-20 ATS this season after a win by 10 points or more and the Thunder have a 4-7 ATS mark as road faves of 6.5 to 9 points this season. The Mavericks are 14-6 ATS against Northwest Division opponents this season and the Mavs are 13-5 ATS this season when off of a loss by a margin of 10 points or more. Huge response from the home team in this one. *10* DALLAS +9.5

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks +3 @ Boston @ 8:05 ET Friday - It is a great value to have the Hawks as an underdog in this match-up. With Avery Bradley hurt for the Celtics, Boston was able to make a bit of a "surprise run" in the second half of Game One. However, other than that, it truly has been domination for Atlanta so far in this series. The Hawks saw what happened in the 2nd half of Game One and made the appropriate adjustments and they dominated Game Two just like they dominated the first half of Game One. Without Bradley, the Celtics backcourt is truly hurting and the Hawks play such stifling defense that it has truly frustrated Boston. The C's will be trying to bounce back on their home floor but, keep in mind, Boston has lost 7 straight first round playoff games. The two days off between games actually helps Atlanta more. The Hawks have had a chance to rest up and, unless the Celtics catch Atlanta in a spot where they are a little "weary" or "banged up", they are unlikely to get a win in this series as the Hawks impose their will. Boston is 4-10 ATS this season when playing with two days of rest between games while Atlanta went 6-3 ATS (and 7-2 SU) with two days rest this season. The Hawks went 5-2 ATS this season after allowing 85 points or less in their prior game. Also, the past three season combined, the Hawks are 50-28 ATS after a win by a margin of 10 points or more. *10* ATLANTA Friday

Rickenbach NBA *8* Toronto Raptors -1 @ Indiana @ 7:35 ET - The Raptors need to take back home court advantage after blowing game one of this series on their home floor. Yes Toronto evened the series up with their win over the Pacers in game two but the Raptors know their work is not finished. That said, I look for an intense effort from Toronto tonight as, with two days off coming into this game, they know their best chance to "steal one" down in Indiana is in Game Three. Game Four will come up on a short turnaround as that game goes Saturday afternoon. A big key so far in the series is that the Raptors have dominated the glass. Also, Toronto has made just 9 of 37 three pointers so far in this series. While their rebounding edge is likely to continue (full season stats show that this is an area they can dominate over the Pacers), the three point shooting struggles are unlikely to continue. Toronto has made 46 of 113 (41%) from beyond the arc in their last five regular season meetings with Indiana. The Pacers have lost 14 of their last 22 games against teams with a winning record. Conversely, the Raptors have won 16 of their last 23 games against opponents with a winning record. Also, Toronto has a straight-up record of 20-8 this season when off of a win by a 10 points or more. All of the above records are SU records which are "open for business" considering this line is basically a "pick em". Off the big win Monday, look for the Raptors roll to continue as they improve to 21-8 when in this situation. *8* TORONTO

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers +8.5 @ LA Clippers @ 10:35 ET - The Trail Blazers lost by twenty in game one but they really didn't play all that poorly. They simply got outshot on a night when everything was falling for the Clippers. The Clips hit 53.8% from the field while the Blazers were held to 39.8% from the field on Sunday. Prior to that loss, the Blazers last 7 meetings with the Clippers had only resulted in Portland losing the game by more than 6 points twice. In other words, the value is there with big points like this being offered. Even with Blake Griffin back for the Clippers some will argue the Clips had a better rhythm without him on the floor and the point is that this is still a #4/#5 playoff match-up. That said, I think the points being offered here are quite generous. The Blazers didn't get what they need from their shooters in game one and have had two full off days to prepare for the rematch tonight. Portland needed the time, the Clippers would have just as happily taken the court the very next night. That said, the Clips are likely to lose some of the momentum with the layoff here. The Clippers are 3-9 ATS this season when playing with two days of rest between games. The Trail Blazers are 10-4 ATS this season with two days of rest between games. Also, after a loss by a margin of ten points or more this season, Portland went 13-8 ATS. It is again bounce back time for the Blazers tonight. *10* PORTLAND

Rickenbach NBA *8* Charlotte Hornets +5 @ Miami @ 7:05 ET - The Hornets got jumped on by the Heat in Game One and Charlotte ended up down huge to Miami by the end of the first quarter. The best thing for the Hornets after an ugly loss like that was to have two full days off to "regroup" for the rematch in Game Two. Rest assured, the Hornets will be ready tonight. As "ugly" as Game One was for Charlotte, they did play the Heat "even" in quarters two and three. The Hornets simply "stunk it up" to open up the game and then they close it out in the fourth quarter (game already decided) by letting the back-ups play. The Hornets and Heat typically play tight games and the result on Sunday will certainly prove to be an aberration as this series goes on. The Heat shot a ridiculous 57.6% from the field in Game One while the Hornets shot an equally ridiculous 43.1% from the field. The odds makers kept the line on this game in the same range as it was for the first game despite the Heat dominating the Hornets. Of course the odds makers know what they're doing in that regard...and we do too...Charlotte climbs back into this series with an outright win tonight or, at the very least, gets the cover by losing this game by no more than bucket or two. Miami is 31-41 ATS the past three seasons after a game where they scored 105 points or more. The Hornets are 12-5 ATS this season after a loss by a margin of ten points or more. Bounce back time. *8* CHARLOTTE

Rickenbach NBA *8* Charlotte Hornets +4.5 @ Miami @ 5:35 ET - Two very evenly matched teams. Sure the Heat have the home court edge in game one but the road team has won each of the last two meetings between these clubs. Also, four of the last six meetings between these teams have been decided by 5 points or less. Charlotte is a fantastic 23-10 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 6 points the past three seasons and, by the way, 18 of those 23 covers were outright wins! I am still recommending grabbing the points in this one but an outright upset would not surprise in the least. Miami, in home games with a posted total in a range of 195 to 199.5 has gone 3-7 ATS (and 3-7 SU!) this season. Also, the Heat ATS record in that range the past 3 years is an ugly 10-17 ATS. Nicolas Batum is ready to go for the Hornets today after sitting out 3 of the last 6 games. Also, the last 4 games he's played in he only averaged 24 minutes per game but I look for him to be back up to his typical contributions today and that will help the Hornets as they look for the game one upset today. *8* CHARLOTTE

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Boston Celtics +5.5 @ Atlanta @ 7:05 ET - Boston lost a couple of games at Atlanta this season simply because the Hawks just shot "lights out" from three point land. The Hawks are a solid 3-point shooting team but they hit 17 of 33 in one game and 12 of 24 in another game. This is ridiculously hot shooting that is hard to duplicate. Note that in their other two games against Boston this season Atlanta was held to a combined 10 of 40 from beyond the arc. Not surprisingly, the Celtics outscored the Hawks by a combined 207 to 202 in those two games. In their most recent visit to Atlanta a week ago, the Celtics led at the half and were only down a bucket going into the 4th quarter. The eventual 11 point margin of victory for the Hawks had a lot to do with them scoring 51 points from three point land. As you would expect, Boston will be focused on playing better perimeter defense in this one. That Hawks ATS win was one of just two covers that Atlanta had in their final eight games of the season. The Celtics won 9 of their final 13 games this season and can play excellent defense when they "step it up" as they've shown that at times this season. Now that the playoffs are here, look for them to step it up for sure. I expect Avery Bradley, Marcus Smart, and Jae Crowder to provide solid perimeter defense after what happened here last Saturday. The Celtics are 23-13 SU and ATS when playing with revenge this season. Atlanta is 9-14 ATS in all playoff games the past two seasons. *10* BOSTON

Rickenbach NBA *8* Indiana Pacers +7 @ Toronto @ 12:35 ET - Indiana is 30-14 SU (and 28-16 ATS) the past three seasons when playing with two days of rest between games. The Pacers will be rested and ready to go here against a Raptors team that is 14-18 ATS the past three seasons when playing with two days of rest between games. Toronto was hot to close out the regular season so they are a popular choice here. However, Indiana, unlike the Raptors, have made deep postseason runs before. They come into this series with confidence and Paul George is playing well enough that he is going to draw in the Raptors defense. This will open things up for the other Pacers to step up and I look for guys like Monta Ellis and George Hill to have a big game here in the series opener. The Pacers have held the Raptors under 37% from the field in 2 of the last 3 meetings. In the one game they didn't, Indiana did hold Toronto to just 68 field goal attempts. The Pacers defense is not being given as much respect as it should and they held opponents to 33% from three point land while the Raptors allowed 37% beyond the arc. The Raptors have won just 3 of their last 11 playoffs games and they got the cash in just 2 of those 11 games. All the pressure is on the Raptors here to erase past playoff disappointments and I would not be surprised to see Indiana get a game one upset and I certainly see value in the big points. *8* INDIANA

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Denver Nuggets +11 @ Portland @ 10:35 ET - If Dallas loses to San Antonio in the early evening action Wednesday then the Trail Blazers will already have the #5 seed for the post-season and that will render this game meaningless. However, even if the Mavs do defeat the Spurs, the Blazers aren't necessarily going to run up the score here on Denver. Yes, I am well aware of the series dominance that Portland has had over the Nuggets. However, the Trail Blazers have not been playing well defensively of late. The Blazers have split their last four games and during this stretch Portland has allowed an average of 116 points per game with opponents shooting 51.3 percent overall and 49.4 percent from 3-point range. Remember Denver is still a dangerous team on offense (102 points per game this season) and also remember that EACH of the last five meetings between these teams has been decided by 7 points or less. Another key to keep in mind about this inflated line is that Portland certainly wants to stay healthy as they prepare for the post-season. Even if this game ends up being a game that does matter to them (in terms of their quest for the #5 seed) it does not mean that all the starters are going to be on the floor if the Blazers do get a sizable lead late in the game. Portland is pulling their guys IF they are even fortunate enough to be up by double digits late in this game. With all that said, I do NOT see the Blazers as being very likely to win this game by double digits. For the Nuggets this is a division rival going to the post-season while they'll be staying home and watching it on TV. That is motivation for Denver here and the Nuggets have gone 6-1 ATS this season (and 17-5 ATS the last 3 seasons!) as a road dog of 9.5 to 12 points! *10* DENVER

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves +3.5 vs Houston @ 8:05 ET - What type of the team is the last type of team you want to face late in the season when you are chasing a playoff spot? It is a young team like the Timberwolves that is playing loose and confident. Minnesota is absolutely a dangerous dog in this spot. The T-wolves have won three straight games and all 3 of those wins came on the road and included the big upset of the Warriors at Golden State. Minny now hosts a Houston team that continues to be shaky. The Rockets finally pulled away from the Lakers yesterday but they allowed 110 points. This was the 3rd time in their last 4 games that the Rockets allowed 110 points or more! Houston now goes on the road in what is essentially a must win situation and they have to take on a young, rested Timberwolves team. Minnesota hasn't played back to back games since late March and they will take advantage of catching the Rockets in this back to back. Houston is 6-13 ATS in the second game of back to backs this season and that includes 12 outright losses! They'll be lucky to win this game let alone cover the spread because Minnesota is playing very loose and confident right now and that means shots are falling and the T-wolves are relishing the opportunity to play spoiler here against an old nemesis as the Rockets have owned the T-wolves in series history. This game is projected to be very high scoring and Minny is 17-9 ATS in games with posted total of 210 or greater this season. Also, don't be concerned about taking them off of an upset win. The Timberwolves are 10-6 ATS this season when off of an upset victory as an underdog. I expect them to notch another upset win here but will grab the points because if they do lose I would expect it to be by a single possession. *10* MINNESOTA

Rickenbach NBA *8* Charlotte Hornets +7 @ Boston @ 7:35 ET - The Celtics and Hornets are both known for their strong play at home this season. As a result, everyone is jumping on Boston here and I feel that will prove to be a huge mistake. What it has done is driven up the line on the Celtics and this is offering fantastic underdog line value for Charlotte. This is a late-season battle for home court edge in the post-season so it is a huge game for both teams. The Hornets play this game with quadruple revenge as the Celtics have taken each of the last four meetings! You can bet that Charlotte is ready to respond after losing a pair of early season match-ups in December on their home floor. The Bobcats lost at Washington yesterday but they are 7-3 (70%) SU this season when off of an upset loss as a favorite. Also, when off of a loss by 10 points or more this season, the Hornets have responded by going 11-5 ATS in their next game. When off of a divisional game this season Charlotte has gone 9-4 ATS. The Celtics have failed to cover 12 of their last 18 games. In fact, in their last 18 games, Boston has only FIVE wins by more than SEVEN points. As you can see, there is great line value here with the underdog and the Hornets have gone 11-4 SU in the 2nd game of back to back games this season. After an embarrassing loss at Washington, the Hornets respond today. *8* CHARLOTTE

Rickenbach NBA *8* Brooklyn Nets +6 vs Washington @ 7:35 ET - With Washington off of their big win versus Charlotte and Brooklyn off of their ugly loss at Indiana, the whole world seems to be lining up on the Wizards in this one and you know what that means for me. I generally look at things from a contrarian standpoint and I expect the Nets to show up in a big way here. I know that the Wizards would like to get to .500 and I know that other players on the roster are hoping to step up their game with both Beal and Wall hurting. However, I also know this...the Wizards definitely were not short on motivation when they needed wins to make the playoffs and they didn't accomplish that. Just winning to get back to .500 is not nearly the motivation that a playoff berth is. The Wizards are 4-8 SU and ATS in their last 12 road games. They are also 3-10 ATS this season when off of an upset win as a underdog. While it is also true that the Nets have been struggling recently, it is also true that their recent schedule has been dominated by road games. Look for Brooklyn to respond in a big way now that they are back home. The Nets have won 3 of their last 5 home games and let's not forget that this is just their SIXTH home game in their past 25 games! The Nets schedule has been dominated by road games the past SEVEN weeks! They stunk it up at Indiana yesterday and it was evident that the Pacers wanted it more. Tonight I feel strongly it will be evident that the Nets are the team that wants it more. They got embarrassed Sunday. Tonight at home they use that as motivation and they also respond well to being back on their home floor. *8* BROOKLYN

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Golden State Warriors +5.5 @ San Antonio @ 7:05 ET - Spurs Coach Popovich always says what he means...and he means what he says. The point is that if he tells you he could care or less about finishing this season with a home record of 41-0, he absolutely means it! With that said, there is more concern for each team here about getting someone hurt than there is about going out and trying to impose their will on an opponent. As a result, I see great line value here with the underdog Warriors. They are getting nearly half dozen points and I just don't see the Spurs being able to pull away by any significant margin in this game. For one thing San Antonio will be "holding back" for the post-season and, for another thing the Warriors are simply loaded with hot outside shooting. This means a game that may be more "casually" played than many are expecting should result in being advantageous to the team that does more damage from downtown. Neither team is likely to be attacking in the paint and going to the rim consistently and risking getting an inadvertent hard foul. That just doesn't make sense. With that said, the outside shooting is likely to be a critical factor in this game and, overall, the Warriors are the better shooting team. Additionally, they are coming off of rare poor shooting at Memphis last night. That is highly unlikely to be repeated tonight. Golden State has shown a penchant all season long for responding, much more often than not, with a strong shooting night from three point land when they are off of a game where they struggled from outside the arc. In terms of ATS stats for this one, the Spurs have failed to cover the spread in 14 of their last 19 games. The Warriors are 10-6 ATS the past three seasons as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points. The Warriors also are 17-2 SU when in the 2nd night of a back to back this season. *10* GOLDEN STATE

Rickenbach NBA *8* Denver Nuggets +6.5 vs Utah @ 5:05 ET - This is another situation where, once again, some of these teams that need to win are simply being overvalued. The Jazz are trying to close in on locking down a playoff spot but they continue to struggle. Utah has lost each of its last two games and overall, has gone only 4-4 in its last 8. The Jazz are facing a division rival who will be home for the playoffs. As a result, the Nuggets will of course want to play the role of spoiler against the Jazz. Denver is off of a win versus San Antonio and even though the Spurs sat most of their key players the Nuggets certainly can use that victory as a confidence boost heading into what is their home finale this afternoon. Denver will be able to play both "loose" and confident in this game while the Jazz will be "tight" and feeling the pressure of needing a win to boost their post-season chances. Denver will be playing their fourth straight home game and the Nuggets are 11-4 ATS this season (and 22-11 ATS the past three seasons) when they enter a game having played each of their three prior games at home. The Nuggets will be gunning for the upset here and if the Jazz are able to gut out a win here I don't expect this game to be decided by just a possession or two. In other words, excellent line value here with the big points. *8* DENVER

Rickenbach NBA *8* Washington Wizards +5 vs Charlotte @ 12:05 ET - The Hornets are fighting for playoff positioning while the Wizards are simply closing out a disappointing finish to the season. That means this one should be easy for Charlotte, right? Actually it should prove to be anything but that as Washington will put up a fight on their home floor against a hated division rival. The Wizards look to play the role of spoiler here and hurt the Hornets chances of getting a home field edge in the first round of the playoffs. Motivation is key in late season NBA match-ups and the home dog Wizards are being given a lot of value in this one as a home dog because Charlotte is the team with the need to win. The Hornets lost for most of their backers Friday as they won by 14 and were favored by 14.5 or more until just a couple hours before game time when they dropped to 14. This ATS loss drops Charlotte to 5-9 ATS in their last 14 games and the Hornets are again overvalued here. Even with John Wall injured, the Wizards are going to put up a tremendous fight at home in this one. Washington is 6-2 ATS as a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points in the last three seasons combined. The Wizards are also 21-7 ATS in April games the last three years combined. *8* WASHINGTON

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Boston Celtics +5.5 @ Atlanta @ 7:35 ET - Huge game in terms of home court implications in the post-season. Sure this is a back to back spot for Boston but their win last night was well in hand entering the fourth quarter and so no one had to play excessive minutes for the Celtics. Boston is now in good shape for the 2nd game of the back to back and they are 38-17 ATS in this situation the past three seasons combined. The Celtics also are 11-4 SU and ATS against Southeast Division opponents this season. The Hawks come into this game on a 1-4 ATS run. The Celtics have won four straight games and eight of their last ten. The Hawks have been playing solid defense but the Atlanta offense could be a difference maker tonight. The Hawks have been held to 42.6% from the field in their last 7 games. The Celtics have been at the other end of the spectrum with 47.2% shooting during their current 4 game winning streak. Boston is loaded with confidence right now and the Hawks will be in a fierce battle just to win this game...let alone cover the significant points! Don't be surprised if turnovers play a key role tonight as well. The Celtics have forced 74 turnovers in their last 4 games while the Hawks have forced just 58. Also Atlanta has turned the ball over 62 times in their last 4 games while Boston has turned it over only 49 times. Celtics just might pull off the upset here but certainly they should be "in this one" all the way which means the points should prove to be more than enough here. *10* BOSTON

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Houston Rockets -2 @ Dallas @ 9:35 ET - Big battle in the Western Conference playoff race and the Rockets are ready. Houston has had two days of rest leading into this game and they are 8-3 ATS this season (and 27-10 ATS the past 3 seasons) when they are playing with two days of rest between games. The Rockets are off of a win against the Thunder and that was the third playoff team they've defeated in their last five games. The other two wins were against Cleveland and Toronto, two of the top teams in the Eastern Conference. The significance in this is that the Rockets have been able to get the job done against some top tier teams lately. For the Mavs this is has NOT been the case. Even though the Mavericks deserve some kudos for putting together a 4-game wining streak, the victories have come against three non-playoff teams and one slumping playoff team (Detroit). Prior to this 4-game run Dallas had lost 10 of their last 13 games. This included losing 7 of the 9 games against playoff-bound teams. That is precisely a key factor as to why the Rockets are favored in this match-up even though they are on the road at Dallas. The Mavs have consistently struggled in big games against playoff-level competitors. Houston has won 7 of the last 9 meetings between these clubs and that includes knocking Dallas out of the playoffs last April. Simply put, the Rockets have the Mavs number. *10* HOUSTON

Rickenbach NBA *8* Philadelphia 76'ers -2.5 vs New Orleans @ 7:05 ET - Philadelphia is favored with good reason today. How can a 9-68 team be favored over anybody you might ask...the answer is that the Pelicans are in a world of hurt right and the Sixers being a small home favorite in this spot is absolutely justified. New Orleans is basically missing nearly every key player they have and half the roster is done for the season. Tonight they visit Philly where the entire city is still abuzz with the delight of Villanova's fantastic national championship win last night. The Sixers are very hungry to get their 10th win of the season and avoid matching the dubious mark of having only 9 wins in a season set by a 76'ers team many years ago. To summarize, tonight's game features a very motivated and much healthier team hosting an unmotivated team that has also been crippled by injuries. New Orleans did just beat Brooklyn Sunday but that game featured unusual shooting percentages as the Pelicans hit 55% from the field while the Nets hit just 39%. That is a statistical anomaly that won't be repeated here. Look for New Orleans to drop to 5-13 ATS this season when they are off of an upset win as an underdog while the 76'ers improve to 21-8 ATS in non-conference games on the season. The Sixers are also 6-1 ATS the past three seasons (including 3-0 ATS this season) when they are a home favorite of 3 points or less. *8* PHILADELPHIA

Rickenbach NBA *8* Houston Rockets +3 vs Oklahoma City @ 3:35 ET - The Thunder have won 9 of their last 10 games and, from that standpoint, this certainly is a contrarian play. However, the key here is that Oklahoma City really is now beginning to think about health and resting players prior to the post-season. They've already got themselves pretty well set in terms of playoff seeding and now it's just a matter of health and staying in a good rhythm heading into the playoffs. As for the Rockets, there certainly can be no let up here. Houston is battling for their playoff lives and needs to bounce back off of the home loss to Chicago. Prior to that defeat the Rockets had notched a big road win at Cleveland and, with this game being their only game in the first five days of April, I expect Houston to be fully focused here even though they have a date with the Mavs (key battle in playoff race) coming up on Wednesday. Houston is a fantastic 7-3 ATS this season (and 26-10 ATS the last 3 seasons) when they enter a game off of two days of rest. The Rockets are also a solid 18-11 ATS this season (and 56-31 ATS the last 3 seasons) when they are off of a non-conference race. Houston has covered 11 of their past 17 games against teams with a winning record while Oklahoma City has gone an ugly 11-22 ATS this season in games against teams with a losing record. The Thunder also are a poor 12-22 ATS in road games this season while the Rockets are a stellar 7-2 ATS (and SU!) the last 3 seasons when they are at home with a line ranging from pick'em to +3. *8* HOUSTON

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves +3 vs Dallas @ 3:35 ET - Ever since the All Star Break the Timberwolves have managed to avoid the long losing streaks that made the first half of the season so ugly for Minnesota. Since early February, when the Wolves enter a game on a losing streak of two games, they've won the next game 3 of 4 times. Minny comes into this game off of back to back losses and I look for a big response as the T-wolves have a 3-game road trip on deck after this game. Minnesota would love to play the role of spoiler here as Dallas has had the Timberwolves number for many years and the Mavericks are now battling for their playoff lives. The T-wolves will undoubtedly "leave it all on the floor" tonight as they go for the upset win before heading west for a tough 3-game road trip. Minnesota is a young team but full of energy and will be ready to push the tempo against a Dallas team that is in a lookahead spot here as they have a huge game with Houston on deck. The Rockets are one of the teams that the Mavericks are battling with for a playoff spot so it's nearly impossible for the Mavs to avoid looking ahead to that big match-up in Big D. Dallas is off of an upset win at Detroit and the Mavericks are 5-8 ATS this season (and 13-22 ATS the last 3 seasons) when off of an upset win as an underdog. With injuries continuing to be a nagging issue for the Mavs, the healthier team here has a great shot at the upset. For the 4th time in the last 5 occurrences, the Timberwolves respond to back to back losses by notching a victory. *10* MINNESOTA

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets +14 @ Cleveland @ 7:05 ET - Many will look to Cleveland here as they get LeBron James back after resting him against Houston and certainly the Cavaliers will be motivated after blowing a huge, late 20-point lead against the Rockets plus having lost at Brooklyn last week. However, the problems for the Cavs are many. James did have a big game against the Nets last week and yet Cleveland still lost. In other words, his return tonight may not mean all that much. Should the Cavaliers get the win tonight? Of course. But getting the cover is a whole other matter. The Cavs just aren't getting much lately out of their 2nd, 3rd, and 4th scoring options. Cleveland also hasn't responded all that well to the coaching change either. With all of that said, the Cavaliers are likely going to struggle to completely dominate a Nets team that is coming off of an ugly loss. Brooklyn had been playing very hard and had been playing ultra-competitive basketball before their embarrassing loss to the Magic Tuesday. The Nets had been on a 15-10 ATS run before back to back ATS losses to the Heat and Magic Monday and Tuesday. In the 24 games before the blowout defeat at Orlando, the Nets had lost just TWICE by more than the 14 point spread that is being offered tonight. The Nets, the loss to the Magic notwithstanding, just don't stop battling, and they should keep this game within a single digit margin as the Cavs struggles (currently a 2-7 ATS run) continue. The Cavaliers are an ugly 12-23 ATS this season in their games against teams with a losing record. Also, Cleveland is 0-5 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 to 15 points this season! Look for the Nets to improve to 4-1 ATS this season as a road dog of 12.5 or more points. *10* BROOKLYN

Rickenbach NBA *8* Atlanta Hawks +2 @ Toronto @ 7:35 ET - The Raptors Kyle Lowry had his elbow drained after Toronto got drilled by Oklahoma City on Monday night. The All Star has shot just 26% from the field in his last 4 games and clearly is bothered by his elbow. Not surprisingly, the Raptors have lost 3 of these 4 games and, overall, Toronto is on a 1-4 ATS run. The Raptors will have their hands full tonight with a revenge-seeking Hawks team. Atlanta has won 14 of their last 17 games but one of those 3 defeats came here at Toronto. That means it is time for a little payback. The Hawks have been playing stellar defense throughout this 5-week run of success and I look for Atlanta to frustrate Toronto tonight. The Raptors have been held to 43.2% or less from the field in 4 of their last 5 games. Toronto's victory over the Hawks three weeks ago was the first time in the last 5 meetings that the home team had notched the victory. This series has been dominated by the road team in recent victories. The combination of the Hawks defense, the Lowry situation, and the revenge factor is why this line is so low on Toronto. Don't fall for the trap. The road team has the key edges in this spot. By the way, the Hawks are 23-15 SU and ATS this season in their games against teams with a winning record. They will bring their "A game" again Wednesday. *8* ATLANTA

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 @ Detroit @ 7:35 ET - While many seem to be trying to pick the spot where the Thunder winning streak comes to an end, including thinking it would be at Toronto last night, I just don't see any reason to fade a red hot Oklahoma City team right now. The Thunder have now won 8 in a row and they demolished the Raptors so handily last night that they were able to rest their key players more than usual as the game went on yesterday. That means Oklahoma City will still have plenty of energy left for this battle with the Pistons tonight and the Thunder also know that they have only one game coming up in the next four days so there is every reason to "leave it all on the floor" tonight. Even though Detroit has a respectable record this season their recent hot streak has been helped by playing a lot of weak teams. The Pistons had won five straight before getting demolished by the Hawks Saturday but the five game winning streak included four non-playoff teams. Couple that with the fact that, prior to the five game winning streak the Pistons had lost five of their eight prior games and you can see why I am absolutely willing to fade Detroit with the hottest team in the league Tuesday. Oklahoma City has won four of the last five meetings between these teams and that includes each of the last two in Detroit. The Pistons have won the money just 9 times in their last 24 games against teams that are averaging 99 points or more per game on the season. Tonight Detroit hosts the 2nd best offense in the league as only Golden State scores more than the Thunder. *10* OKLAHOMA CITY

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets +10 @ Miami @ 7:35 ET - Miami is off of a win (and they edged out the spread for the cover) in their win over Orlando Friday. However, prior to this ATS win, the Heat had failed to cover 6 of their last 9 games. Before the 11 point win over the Magic, Miami had allowed 3 of their last 5 opponents to hit 52% or better from the field. Their defense has certainly been inconsistent of late and the Nets have shot the ball quite well in many of their games over the past five weeks. This has led the way to a 10-6 ATS run and Brooklyn is a dangerous dog as they've averaged 108.6 points per game in their last 7 games. Off of back to back home wins over Cleveland and Indiana, the Nets confidence has been growing late in the season and they won't be intimidated at all about playing in Miami. In fact, in this series, the road team has won 5 of the last 7 meetings and, in the only two meetings won by the home team each game was decided by 6 points or less. The Nets will be "in this one" all the way too. Brooklyn is 8-4 this season as a road dog of 9.5 to 12 points. Against teams averaging 99 points or more per game, the Nets have covered 14 of the last 21. In games with a posted total of 210 points or more, the Heat have gone 1-3 SU and ATS this season! When off of a game where they scored 105 points or more, Miami is 27-38 ATS the last 3 seasons combined. The Heat continue their lack of focus on defense and the upstart Nets only have 3 losses by more than 10 points in their last 22 games! Look for another tight defeat here and that gets the dog the cash. *10* BROOKLYN

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Philadelphia 76'ers +20.5 @ Golden State @ 8:05 ET - You know the Warriors have had this game circled on the calendars! All kidding aside, the hapless Sixers certainly present "low priority" to a Golden State team with it's sight set on another NBA title. That said, this line is simply too high. When these teams met in Philly the Warriors only won by 3 points. In their most recent meeting prior to that Golden State only won by 5 points. Granted things certainly "could" get ugly in a meeting between the best and worst teams in the NBA but I don't foresee this getting "that" out of hand. The Sixers have been competing hard even though the losses keep piling up. Last night Philadelphia was down big to the Trail Blazers entering the fourth quarter but then closed the gap to only lose by 3 points. In fact, even though the Sixers are 1-17 in their 18 games the past 5 weeks, not a single one of those 17 losses has come by more than 20 points. The 76'ers have covered 4 of their past 6 road games. Also, the Warriors come into this game having failed to cover 3 of their past 4 games overall. Golden State has a back to back coming up starting with hosting Washington Tuesday and then visiting Utah Wednesday. That said, the Warriors certainly have no need to run up the score here and actually will be looking just to notch a "comfortable win" and then move forward. As a home favorite of 18.5 points or more the Warriors have gone just 1-4 ATS. The Sixers are 19-8 ATS this season in non-conference games and 7-2 ATS in games against Pacific Division opponents. *10* PHILADELPHIA

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Charlotte Hornets -3 @ Milwaukee @ 8:35 ET - Both of these teams are off of losses last night but there is no doubt it is the Hornets that are more likely to bounce back and get the W in this back to back situation. Charlotte has not lost back to back games since late January. Since then, the Hornets had won 19 of their last 24 games before suffering the 7 point loss at Detroit last night. Charlotte now takes on a weaker foe tonight and I look for the Hornets to get right back on track and improve on solid records against Central Division opponents. Charlotte is 11-5 ATS this season (and 33-17 ATS the L3 seasons) in their games against Central Division opponents. In road games with a posted total between 200 and 204.5 points this season, the Hornets are 8-3 ATS. The Bucks are a horrible 1-7 ATS this season in home games with a posted total between 200 and 204.5 points this season. Milwaukee's loss last night was their 4th straight defeat and 3 of the 4 losses have been by a margin of at least 9 points. In fact, going further back, the Bucks last 7 losses have only included one defeat by less than 8 points! When the Bucks lose they tend to lose big and they are hosting an angry Hornets team Saturday! Charlotte has won and covered each of the last 4 games in Milwaukee and this series has truly been dominated by the road team in recent seasons. Look for that trend, favoring the Hornets tonight, to continue here. *10* CHARLOTTE

Rickenbach NBA *8* Minnesota Timberwolves +8 @ Washington @ 7:05 ET - With their win over the Kings on Wednesday the Timberwolves have now covered 4 straight games and 7 of their last 9. Minnesota has shot better than 50% from the field in 3 of their last 4 games and have continued to show there is no quit in this team! The Wizards are still battling hard for a postseason spot but the home loss to Atlanta was a crushing defeat for Washington. The Wizards failed to get the cash for the 7th time in their last 11 games. While many will look for a bounce back effort from Washington here, the problem is that the Wizards beat the T-wolves in Minny earlier this month. Minnesota is seeking revenge and they are 17-10 ATS this season (and a fantastic 48-26 ATS the last 3 seasons) when playing with home loss revenge! The Wizards are 7-13 straight-up this season when off of a loss by a margin of 10 points or more. A lot of points expected here and the Timberwolves are 13-7 ATS this season in games with a posted total of 210 points or more. The Wizards are 10-15 ATS this season in games with a posted total of 210 points or more. *8* MINNESOTA

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks -1 @ Washington @ 7:05 ET - The Hawks get a shot at revenge here after faltering against the Wizards on Monday. Atlanta had won 10 of their last 12 games before they fell by 15 hosting Washington on Monday. The Hawks suffered a letdown on defense in the loss to the Wizards and I expect a focused effort as they regroup on that end of the floor in the rematch Wednesday. Atlanta had been winning with defense as they had held 8 of their last 12 opponents under 39.4% from the field. That is a fantastic long-term stellar run and Washington's 50.5% mark on Monday was the first time a team had shot better than 46.4% against the Hawks in over a month! You can bet that Atlanta is ready to respond in a huge way tonight in this opportunity for divisional revenge. The Wizards had covered just 3 of their 9 prior games before they got the big win over the Hawks Monday. Also, dating back to their playoff series last May, the Hawks had won four straight games over the Wizards before suffering the ugly loss Monday. Atlanta has had the Wizards number and I look for a return to that tonight. Washington is an ugly 3-9 ATS this season when they are off of an upset win as an underdog. Also, prior to beating Atlanta, the Wizards had been on a 4-8 SU (and ATS) run in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. The Hawks are the better team, they are extremely motivated, and we get good line value because they are on the road. That raises the level of this play to top play status. *10* ATLANTA

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves +13 vs Golden State Warriors @ 8:05 ET - As expected, the whole world is lining up on the Warriors here since they are off of a loss at San Antonio on Saturday. However, note that the last two times that Golden State was off of a loss they have not covered the spread either time in the next game. One time the Warriors won by 6 points and the other time by 3 points. Both of those victories are a long way off from covering a spread of a dozen plus points here at Minnesota Monday. Another factor here is that the Warriors always have a target on their backs and you know the Timberwolves will be up in a big way for tonight's game as they look to do the unthinkable - score a monumental upset. One thing one must give the Timberwolves credit for is that they do not give up. Against the Rockets on Friday, Minnesota never stopped trying and they stayed inside the big number with late threes leading the way. That was the T-wolves  5th cover in their last 7 games. Tonight's game is Minny's first home game in nearly two weeks so there is no doubt they'll be ready to go here and they are 47-26 ATS the last 3 seasons combined when they are playing a game with home loss revenge. The Wolves lost here at home by 13 points in November and look to avenge that defeat tonight. Minnesota has covered 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning record. Also, the Warriors are on an ugly 3-7 ATS run away from home. Certainly Golden State should win tonight but this margin is too much on the road against a T-wolves team playing hard and knocking down threes. *10* MINNESOTA

Rickenbach NBA *8* Charlotte Hornets +6.5 vs San Antonio @ 7:05 ET - The Spurs are off of their biggest win of the season. No doubt about it. If you're not in the San Antonio area you just can't even imagine how badly the Spurs and the fans wanted that game against Golden State. Of course the Spurs are now 35-0 at home this season but they now take to the road for this match-up at Charlotte. San Antonio is 24-10 in road games this season. The Hornets are 26-11 in home games this season. Charlotte is also off of a home loss to Denver Saturday while the Spurs enjoyed their big home win over the Warriors Saturday. The point is that this game tonight favors the Hornets from a situational standpoint PLUS the Hornets are just as strong at home as the Spurs are on the road PLUS the Hornets are getting more than a half-dozen points here too! Additionally, Charlotte has not lost two in a row since late January! In other words, off of a loss the Hornets have been a great play and I look for the Hornets to get the job done again tonight. After tonight's game Charlotte embarks on a lengthy road trip with no home games remaining this month. That means the Hornets will make the most of this opportunity on their home floor tonight. Charlotte has covered 8 of their last 11 games versus teams with a winning record while the Spurs have covered just 6 of their last 13 against teams with a winning record this season. This little one game road trip is definitely a "quirk" in the schedule for San Antonio and they could get caught still relishing in their victory over the hated Warriors. That leaves the door wide open for a Hornets upset Monday and I'll definitely grab the points here. *10* CHARLOTTE

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play New Orleans Pelicans +8 vs LA Clippers @ 6:05 ET - I am well aware of the fact that the Pelicans have some "personnel issues" to say the least as they prepare for this Sunday game. However, I am also well aware that, when Anthony Davis sat out the 2nd half against Portland on Friday, the Pelicans made their big run against the Blazers and got back into the game. There are plenty of players ready to step up in today's game and they catch the Clippers in a tough back to back spot so that is another edge for New Orleans here. While the Pelicans were off yesterday the Clips were at Memphis. The Grizzlies were a short-handed team that the Clippers should have destroyed but the Clips simply continue to have issues not playing up to their potential. LA has now lost 4 of their last 6 games and the Clippers are on an ugly 1-5 ATS run during this stretch. The Pelicans are a PERFECT 7-0 ATS the last 3 seasons as a home dog of 6.5 to 9 points. New Orleans will undoubtedly be up for this "statement game" and the Clippers can't help but look past the Pelicans as the Clips have a game at mighty Golden State up next on their schedule. What is amazing about the undefeated home dog ATS mark noted above for New Orleans is the fact that they have won 5 of those 7 games straight-up! The Clippers have struggled as road faves in the 6.5 to 9 point range with a 3-11 ATS mark the past three seasons and 9-21 ATS long term. The Clips also are on an 3-6 ATS run in games against teams with a losing record as LA has a big problem with being properly focused for their games. That will prove to be their downfall once again here as the Pelicans get big games from Holiday and Anderson (each scored 30 Friday) once again on Sunday. *10* NEW ORLEANS

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Houston Rockets +7 @ Atlanta @ 7:35 ET Saturday - This is a revenge game for the Rockets and the Hawks are getting too much respect here. Yes, Atlanta has certainly been hot but they've taken advantage of a favorable schedule. The Hawks now have back to back divisional games on deck with a home and home set against the Wizards on deck. Will Atlanta be fully prepared for a tough Rockets team they beat in Houston earlier this season? I doubt it. The Rockets also are getting some line value here because they should have covered last night but fell short when Minny went a ridiculous 3 for 3 on late 3-pointers. The Rockets led that game by double digits for much of the game including in the final minute. After burning their backers with an "unusual finish" last night I see Houston as a great value play tonight as a sizable dog. The Hawks defense had been leading the way for them in recent games but they have let up some in the past two games and have given up 106 points per game. That spells trouble against a Houston team that has won 5 of their past 7 games. Atlanta is 10-15 ATS in games with a posted total of 210 points or more the past three seasons combined. Included in that number is an ugly 5-8 ATS mark when those games are home games for the Hawks. The Rockets are 13-8 ATS in road games with a posted total of 210 points or more this season. Houston has covered 8 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. The Rockets have featured red hot shooting of late and are averaging 113.4 points per game the last 7 games. They'll give Atlanta all they can handle here. *10* HOUSTON

Rickenbach NBA *8* Denver Nuggets +9 @ Charlotte @ 6:05 ET Saturday - The Nuggets are off of a rare ugly loss at Atlanta as Denver rarely loses by a big margin. They've now failed to cover 2 straight games and the significance in that is the fact that the Nuggets had been on an 8-2 ATS run prior to these two losses at the betting window. Denver's overall straight-up record on the season may not be impressive but the point is that, when they do lose, it tends to be a tight defeat. More of the same here on Saturday. The Hornets are over-valued here as they are absolutely in a big sandwich spot. They are off of a divisional win over the Heat. It was a tight, hard-fought victory and, additionally, the Hornets have a big game on deck with the Spurs. Even though San Antonio, like Denver, is a non-conference foe that is a 'statement game' on deck that certainly has Charlotte's attention. As a home fave of 6.5 to 9 points the Hornets are 5-8 ATS the past three seasons. In games against Northwest Division opponents this season Charlotte has covered just 3 of 9 games! The Nuggets are 6-3 ATS so far this month and are 28-14 ATS in March games the past three seasons combined. Denver has covered 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record and this looks like a great spot for a Nuggets upset. Certainly the points are well worth the taking. *8* DENVER

Rickenbach NBA *8* Portland Trail Blazers pick'em @ New Orleans @ 8:05 ET Friday - Ideal situation here. Portland is a solid team but they've played a tough schedule of late and this has caused their recent overall tough stretch. The Trail Blazers will bounce back and get back on track. They've had recent losses to teams like Golden State, Oklahoma City, and San Antonio. The Blazers faced the Spurs in Texas last night but will bounce back even though this is a back to back because Portland will take advantage of facing a lesser foe. Plus the Trail Blazers are certainly catching the Pelicans at a great time as New Orleans is off of a rare, upset win. The Pelicans had lost 8 of their last 9 before notching the victory at Sacramento to wrap up a West Coast road trip. New Orleans is an ugly 3-10 ATS this season when off of an upset win as an underdog. The Trail Blazers are 20-11 ATS (and SU) this season when facing a team with a losing record. The Blazers are also 20-11 ATS when off of a game where they allowed 105 points or more. By the way, the Pelicans 3 year mark when off of an upset win as an underdog is also ugly. It's 16-28 ATS. Last, but certainly not least, the Blazers have revenge for a 26 point loss suffered in their last trip to New Orleans which was all the way back on December 23rd. Payback time here as the Trail Blazers had won 8 of the 9 prior meetings. True series dominance. *8* PORTLAND

Rickenbach NBA *8* Houston Rockets -8 vs Minnesota @ 8:05 ET Friday - The Timberwolves are off of a rare road win (at Memphis) as they took advantage of a Grizzlies team decimated by injuries. Minnesota is still just 11-24 SU in road games this season and a loss at Houston is not only likely to occur, it's likely to be ugly! The Rockets are not happy at all about the way they played versus the Clippers Wednesday as their defense was atrocious. Prior to that ugly effort, the Rockets had held 3 of their prior 4 opponents to 41% or less from the field. Houston will bounce back large here against an overmatched T-wolves team. The Rockets had won and covered 4 of their 5 prior games and, when they come to play (as they certainly will tonight), they are tough to beat. Houston is 27-17 ATS the past three seasons when they are off of a loss by a margin of 10 points or more. They are fired up after losing to the Clips by 16 in a game that was IN HOUSTON! The Rockets average margin of victory in wins since the All Star Break is 15.4 points per triumph. Another big win tonight as we see one of the more focused efforts of the season from the Rockets. Houston has won 8 of the 9 meetings between the teams the past three seasons and the Timberwolves are 15-23 ATS this season (and 48-72 ATS the last 3 seasons) when they are off of a game where they allowed 105 points or more. T-wolves off rare win, Rockets off ugly loss. Perfect set-up! *8* HOUSTON

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Denver Nuggets +8 @ Atlanta @ 8:05 ET - Atlanta is off of a tight win at Detroit last night but now plays the 2nd night of a back to back plus has a much tougher foe (Houston) on deck. That said, the Nuggets make for a dangerous dog here as Denver was off yesterday and will have the fresher legs and they have been on top of their game for many weeks now. In fact, Denver is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a winning record. Also, the Nuggets are very rarely blown out. Their overall season record may not be impressive but dating all the way back to late December 29th - a span of 11 weeks - Denver has lost by more than 8 points just TWICE. So in a span of 11 weeks if you could have the Nuggets +8 in every game they play you would have only lost at the betting window TWICE! That says a lot about just how competitive Denver has been and they will give a tired Hawks team all they can handle tonight. The Nuggets offense has been clicking (over 50% from field each of last 3 games) so the over has cashed 3 straight times. This season, when Denver enters a game on a streak of at least 3 consecutive overs, they have gone 11-5 ATS. The Nuggets offense stays hot, the Hawks tired legs wear down as the game goes on, and this was should be another cover for the under-rated underdog. *10* DENVER 

Rickenbach NBA *8* Houston Rockets -3 vs LA Clippers @ 9:35 ET - These teams don't like each other (to say the least) and the Clippers still remember blowing the 3-1 series lead to the Rockets last spring and getting ousted from the playoffs. However, LA got some measure of revenge with a win in these teams most recent meeting in Los Angeles. That means the ball is back in the Rockets court to "hold serve" and get the win at home. Houston is catching the Clippers at a good time. The Clips were in San Antonio last night and they got annihilated by the Spurs. That is not a good sing of what to expect tonight for the Clippers. LA has now failed to cover 4 straight games and the Clips are now facing a Rockets team that has covered 4 of its last 5 games. Houston also was off yesterday and has an off day on deck plus only Minnesota up next. That means full focus and attention for the Rockets as they are fully prepared to host the Clippers. The Clips have an impressive full season record but they simply are not playing well right now and couple that with the situational edge for Houston here and there is great line value with the Rockets minus the short number. The Clippers defense has struggled now n 3 of its last 4 games and the Clips also got hammered on the boards by the Spurs last night. More of the same tonight. *8* HOUSTON

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Detroit Pistons -1 vs Atlanta @ 7:35 ET - After an embarrassing 43 point loss at Washington on Monday, Detroit can be expected to respond in a huge way tonight. The Pistons had won 7 of their prior 10 games before the ugly effort against the Wizards. Detroit is happy to be back home now and is beginning a long homestand. The Pistons 3 prior home games has seen them win all 3 and the average margin of victory has been 17.7 points per win. Detroit is catching Atlanta at a good time here. The Hawks are off of a huge 29 point victory over the Pacers on Sunday. With the Hawks off of a rare huge win and the Pistons off of a rare ugly loss, the situational edge is strong for Detroit. The Pistons also are seeking revenge for a loss at Atlanta in their most recent on December 23rd. This is a standalone road game for the Hawks and they have a homestand coming up starting tomorrow night. Atlanta could get caught looking ahead here and they also may feel a little too good about themselves after the blowout win over Indiana. The Hawks have only won half of their road games this season while Detroit is 19-11 in home games. Huge playoff implications for the Pistons too. They won't be denied here as the four times they have allowed 116 points or more in a game this season they have gone 4-0 SU and ATS in their next game! *10* DETROIT

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets -7 vs Philadelphia @ 7:35 ET - The Sixers have only won 3 games against Eastern Conference foes this entire season. However, two of those victories came against the Nets. Brooklyn certainly doesn't want to be the team to have the embarrassment of losing their season series with the hapless 76'ers. That said, I look for a solid home win for the Nets just like that had back in December when they knocked off Philadelphia. Brooklyn is motivated for more reasons than one tonight. The Nets are not happy at all about the way they choked down the stretch in their home loss to Milwaukee Sunday. This will be just the 2nd home game for Brooklyn since February 21st so look for the Nets to make the most of it after letting one get away against the Bucks. Philadelphia is one of the worst teams in the league and they have lost 14 of their past 15 and also have failed to cover 9 of their last 12. The Sixers are playing with 2 days of rest here but Philly has gone 2-22 SU plus only covered 8 of its last 24 when they enter a game with two days of rest between games. The Nets are a fantastic 17-3 SU and 13-7 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points the past three seasons. Brooklyn is also 5-2 ATS this season and 16-8 ATS the last 3 seasons in Tuesday games. After being careless with the ball Sunday versus Milwaukee - and paying for it - the Nets play a clean and powerful game against a Sixers team further weakened by the loss of Jahlil Okafor for the season. The 76'ers have a number of other players who are banged up entering this game and might miss tonight's contest. *10* BROOKLYN

Rickenbach NBA *8* Indiana Pacers -2 vs Boston @ 7:05 ET - The Pacers are off an ugly loss as they simply couldn't hit the broad side of a barn with their shots on Sunday. That awful shooting performance led to a loss by 29 points at Atlanta. Indiana had previously won 4 of their last 5 including 3 straight and this stretch featured wins over tough Western Conference foes like San Antonio and Dallas. The Pacers will undoubtedly get right back on track here and get some revenge for a loss at Boston in January. Indiana had won the first two meetings with the Celtics earlier this season and the Pacers are catching the Celtics at the right time. The C's have lost 2 of their last 3 heading into this game. The Celtics recent winning that preceded that had a lot to do with a nice stretch of home games. On the road, Boston has actually lost 4 of its last 5 games. The Celtics have only covered 3 of their last 9 games overall. Boston has been off since Friday and the extra rest doesn't always help. In fact, the Celtics are 6-10 ATS the past three seasons combined when they enter a game off of 3 or more days of rest. The Pacers are 11-3 SU and 9-4-1 ATS the past 3 seasons combined when they are a home favorite of 3 points or less. Indiana is also 22-11 ATS this season in their games against teams with a winning record. The Pacers have taken 28 of the last 42 meetings between these teams in Indiana and the small spread on this game makes the Pacers a solid play considering the situation here. *8* INDIANA

Rickenbach NBA *8* Oklahoma City Thunder -8 vs Portland @ 8:05 ET - The Thunder enter this game on a 2-game losing streak. That is significant because only ONCE this ENTIRE season has Oklahoma City lost three straight games and that was all the way back in early November. That said, I do expect the Thunder to get the win tonight as they play this game with revenge for a loss at Portland in January. OKC had covered each of their three prior meetings with the Trail Blazers before failing to cover that one. With the straight-up win very likely tonight at home for Oklahoma City, what about the all important cover? Good news there as the Thunder have covered the spread in EACH of their last SIX victories. A 6-0 ATS run in games where OKC has won SU. The last five times this season that the Thunder have entered a game on a two-game losing streak they have gotten the straight-up win every single time. A perfect 5-0 SU run. The last 3 such occurrences saw OKC win each game by an average of 12 points and get the cover every single time. A perfect 3-0 ATS run. Portland had lost 4 of their last 5 games before their blowout win over the Magic. With the Trail Blazers off of an easy win and the Thunder off of a loss (at San Antonio) where they know they let one get away, this set up is perfect for a big home win for revenge-minded OKC. *8* OKLAHOMA CITY

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets +2.5 vs Milwaukee @ 8:05 ET - Nice situational edge here with Brooklyn plus the points. Milwaukee is off of back to back wins but both came at home and plus this is the second game of a back to back for the Bucks and they are now on the road. Milwaukee has lost 7 of its last 8 road games. Especially now in a back to back spot, I don't think road struggles like that merit the Bucks being favored on the road no matter who their playing. In this case, Milwaukee is at Brooklyn and, while the Nets overall record this season may not impress, the fact is that the Nets have been playing much better basketball of late. Brooklyn is fired up for this game as it their first home game in THREE WEEKS! That is a long time to be away from home and the Nets are happy to be back on their home court. Brooklyn is off of a surprising loss at Philadelphia but the Nets had covered 6 of their prior 8 games! Also, the Nets have won 3 of their last 5 home games. Against teams who are averaging 99 points or more per game on the season, the Nets are on an impressive 11-4 ATS streak. The Bucks have won just 2 of 9 games this season (and have gone 2-6-1 ATS) when they are off of a win by 10 points or more in their prior game. After winning big versus New Orleans yesterday, look for Milwaukee to fall short on the road today as their record the last 3 seasons combined is just 8-22 ATS when off of a win by 10 points or more. With this also being a back to back situation and also being a road game, I look for the Bucks are in a tough situation against the hungry Nets. *10* BROOKLYN

Rickenbach NBA *8* Indiana Pacers +4.5 @ Atlanta @ 6:05 ET - Both teams are in back to back spots as each won their game yesterday. It is certainly an edge that the Pacers game was at 1 PM ET yesterday whereas the Hawks game was at 7:35 PM ET. Of course Atlanta has the edge of not having to travel for today's game but as far as "rest time" in between games Indiana does hold the edge and this edge is even a little more magnified given the time change to daylight saving time last night as everyone lost an hour of sleep. The Hawks are 7-15 ATS in Sunday games the last 3 seasons combined. Of course the Atlanta on a Saturday night is known for its nightlife and certainly could be a factor in that. Even though the Pacers are off of an upset win as an underdog yesterday they won't have any "winner's hangover" as they are 7-1 SU and ATS this season when off of an outright victory as a dog. Indiana also has been at their best in games against teams with a winning record as they've gone 22-10 ATS this season in those games. Good line value with the points here as the Pacers have covered 5 of their last 6 games and should get the cash again even if they do fall short of the outright upset as they drop the Hawks to 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games. Indiana had won the first two meetings this season but the Pacers lost early last month at Atlanta and they are hungry to avenge that loss Sunday. *8* INDIANA

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Houston Rockets +5 @ Charlotte @ 7:05 ET - With Houston playing on the road for a second straight game and coming off of an upset win at Boston last night, the Rockets certainly will not be the popular choice here. But note that Houston has won 10 straight meetings with Charlotte. Also, although the Hornets have won 7 straight games at home, the Rockets have been streak-busters so far on this road trip. Houston ended a Raptors streak of 12 straight home wins and then ended the Celtics home winning streak at 14 games last night. The Rockets are fully capable of beating the Hornets an 11th straight time and ending Charlotte's overall 6 game winning streak and their streak of 7 straight home wins. James Harden is a beast for the Rockets and Houston now got a boost with Michael Beasley quickly getting re-acclimated to the NBA as he poured in 18 points in just 15 minutes last night. The Rockets are 13-7 ATS this season in games with a posted total of 210 points or more. Houston is also 53-28 ATS the last three seasons combined when off of a non-conference game. The Rockets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. As for the Hornets, when playing on back to back days, they have gone 3-7 ATS this season and 21-32 ATS the last 3 seasons combined. Also, as "hot" as Charlotte has been of late, a rather easy schedule with many games against the bottom-feeders of the NBA certainly helped the Hornets to string together some wins. Give credit to the Hornets for the win over the Pistons yesterday but the Rockets have "their number" and prove that again on Saturday. *10* HOUSTON 

Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Houston Rockets +6 @ Boston @ 7:35 ET - With wins in 3 of their last 4 games the Rockets are getting some confidence back. When in situations like this where they are coming off of a non-conference game there is certainly no "letdown" in the next game. This is especially true after facing a team like Philadelphia. That certainly wasn't a big win...it was simply an expected win. That said, note that Houston is a fantastic 17-5 straight-up this season when coming off of a non-conference game. Also, the Rockets are a stellar 52-28 ATS the past three seasons combined when they are off of a game against an Eastern Conference foe. The Rockets are getting sizable points here and have already covered 6 of 10 this season as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points. 5 of those 6 ATS victories were outright upsets! Houston, overall, has covered 6 of its last 8 games against teams with a winning record. As well as Boston has been playing, let's not forget this is still an East versus West match-up and the Celtics are 29-53 straight-up in games against the Western Conference the last three seasons combined. Houston is playing this game with revenge for a home loss by a 16 point margin earlier this season. That stands as one of the worst defeats the Rockets have had on their home floor this season. A little payback is on order here and the points are adding some solid value to this play. *10* HOUSTON

Rickenbach NBA *8* Detroit Pistons +4.5 @ Charlotte @ 7:05 ET - Revenge game for the Pistons. They were embarrassed here at Charlotte by 20 points back in December and now it is payback time. Even though the Hornets have won 5 straight games, 4 of those wins came against 4 of the worst teams in the league. Couple that with the fact that the 5-game winning streak was preceded by Charlotte losing 2 of 3 and you and you can see why I am not overly impressed by the Hornets current run. Charlotte now hosts a Detroit team that has won 6 of its 8 prior games and 4 of the 6 wins have come against teams with a winning record. As you can see, the Pistons hot streak is a little more impressive based on level of competition. Detroit was an underdog at Dallas Wednesday and got the outright win. The Pistons are 9-5 ATS this season when they are off of an upset win as an underdog. Charlotte is 7-16 straight-up the last three seasons combined when they enter a game having played each of their three prior games at home Complacency sets in. It will do so again here as the Hornets are feeling a little too good about themselves after beating up on weaker competition. In comes the improved (and revenge-seeking Pistons). I expect the upset but will grab the points. *8* DETROIT