ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #582 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers simply continue to get no respect from the betting markets. After losing to the Nets in Game 1 of their first round series with Brooklyn many were saying the Sixers wouldn't even survive Round One. Of course Philly proceeded to win 4 straight over the Nets. Now, of course, the Raptors are a much better team than the Nets and I am NOT saying the same thing here (that Philly will win 4 straight). But here is what I am saying, Game 3 is a fantastic situation for the Sixers. After getting embarrassed in Game 1 of this series they responded with a huge Game 2 effort and got a key road win at Toronto. Now everyone expects the Raptors to bounce right back and win Game 3 as Philly opened up as a 1.5 point favorite but now is a 1.5 point dog. Lets not forget that one of the biggest concerns for the Sixers is the health of Joel Embiid. That said, the extra rest that has been afforded between Games 2 and 3 of this series is a huge edge for Philadelphia. Additionally, the home crowd will be amped up for what is just the 2nd home game for the 76ers since mid-April. This will be an incredible atmosphere in Philly and they won their last two home games by 22 points apiece. The Raptors get a lot of hype and love due to their finish to the regular season but this still a Toronto team that is only 12-9 SU (and 9-12 ATS) in their last 21 games against teams with a winning record and they have a first year head coach. The Sixers are 16-11 SU against teams with winning record and 33-11 SU in home games this season. Everyone continues to doubt this 76ers team and we'll take advantage with the great line value considering this favorable situation. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #577 Wednesday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Denver Nuggets @ 9:05 ET - It looks easy to simply take the Nuggets on their home floor, right? Of course this was particularly true when the line opened up at a 3.5 in some of the big books offshore. Not surprisingly, the line is now up to as high as a 4.5 as of game day morning and I am fading the masses and grabbing the road dog here. The Trail Blazers are off back to back non-covers. Note that Portland is a PERFECT 8-0 SU the last 8 times they've entered a game on an ATS losing streak of 2 or more games. Though I do expect the outright upset here I am grabbing the points with the Blazers for added insurance in this one but, the point is, a SU win is likely in this one so having a handful of points too is simply an added bonus for us. The Nuggets were on a 5-9 ATS run in home games before notching the win and cover in Game 1 of this series. I look for Denver to drop to 11-19 ATS this season when off a game in which they scored 115 points or more. The Trail Blazers will turn up the heat on defense after allowing 121 at Denver Monday. Note that, prior to that game the road team had covered 3 of the last 4 meetings between these teams. Keep in mind, since the All-Star break two and a half months ago, the Blazers have lost back to back games only ONCE! Look for a huge bounce back from the road team to even this series up but grab those points for the added insurance. 10* PORTLAND

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #572 Tuesday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (-) vs Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET - I had the 76ers last night after they got thoroughly embarrassed at Toronto in Game 1. The result? A never in doubt cover even though many pundits left the Sixers for dead after the Raptors destroyed them in Game 1. The same principle applies to this match-up. As a result of the Celtics winning big at Milwaukee in Game 1, there is already a strong anti-Bucks pro-Celtics attitude among the so-called experts. As always, over-reacting to one game is a common theme in today's "what have you done for me lately" world. I am going contrarian here and grabbing a Bucks team others won't want to lay the points with and, certainly, it is not without plenty of logic and reason. First off the Celtics made 34 of 56 two point FG attempts in Game 1 while Milwaukee made only 18 of 50 two point FG attempts. Give plenty of credit to Boston for that but do you really think the Bucks aren't going to make adjustments for Game 2? They are on their home floor and will be fired up and ready to respond on BOTH ends of the floor after being embarrassed in front of their own fans in Game 1. Keep in mind that is a 32 point difference on two pointers. If Bucks just play "even" with Boston from inside the arc they win Game 1 by 10 points and I feel they can do even better than "even" with the Celtics in Game 2. After all, Milwaukee is 21-1 SU (including 11-0 SU at home) when coming off a loss this season. Okay, but what about the cover? Milwaukee, if you like them to get the SU win here, should also be whom you back for the cover because 83% of their wins this season came by 8 or more points. In fact, 16 of their 17 wins since March 1st have come by a margin of 8 or more points. As for the Celtics, 8 of their last 11 losses have come by a margin of 8 or more points. The Bucks roll big at home in this one. 10* MILWAUKEE

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #561 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - Even more so today than in the past, likely to due to social media influence and the overall vast amount of media coverage on games and match-ups, public opinion is swayed extremely fast. The Sixers are now "left for dead" in this series because they lost Game 1. That is simply preposterous. Let me explain what happened in Game 1. The Sixers shot less than 40% from the field while the Raptors shot better than 50%. Games like this happen from time to time for all teams and Philadelphia is no exception. Yes, I am aware of their poor recent history at Toronto but think of all the bad teams the 76ers have had in recent seasons that helped build that 0-14 SU run in games played north of the border. Philadelphia, of course, is a much better team this season and the fact is that the Sixers had 13 offensive rebounds in Game 1 compared to the Raptors having just 2 and that helped lead to a 14-2 edge in 2nd chance points. Overall for the game the 76ers took 10 more shots from the field. They weren't soft, they just didn't shoot well. The fact is Kawhi Leonard and Pascal Siakam had huge games for the Raptors in Game 1 but you can bet the 76ers will make some adjustments. The remainder of Toronto's team combined to score just 34 points in Game 1 on 13 of 41 shooting. Remember what happened when Philly lost Game 1 to the Nets in the first round and everyone was bashing the 76ers? They responded and won 4 straight games to quiet the critics. Of course I am not saying that is happening here in this series but I am saying that getting a revenge-minded Philly team +6.5 points again in Game 2 is a great value. Keep in mind this is still the first season for the Raptors Nick Nurse as a head coach at the NBA level. Don't be surprised when the Sixers win the "adjustment game" here in Game 2. The fact is you know that Leonard and Siakam are highly unlikely to combine for 74 points again just like the 76ers Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris, and Jimmy Butler are extremely unlikely to go 15 for 47 combined from the field again! 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #555 Sunday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 3:35 ET - The Warriors Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson both are dealing with ankle injuries entering this game. Thompson's appears to be the bigger concern but, either way, it is definitely an issue. Many are going to look at the low spread on this game and jump on the home team but the contrarian viewpoint should prove to be the right viewpoint here. The fact is that the Rockets are only getting about a half-dozen points here with good reason. Not only the fact that Curry and Thompson may not be 100% but also the fact that Golden State is off a bit of a grueling series with the Clippers. That series with LA took more effort from the Warriors than many expected and, while Golden State is on short rest here, the Rockets have a solid rest edge after dispatching of the Jazz in 5 games. The Warriors are a long-term 11-24 ATS in Sunday games including a poor 2-9 ATS this season. Golden State is also 14-24 ATS in home games with a posted total of 220 points or more this season. The Rockets enter this game on a 9-3 ATS run. Also, Kevin Durant just had a huge series against the Clippers but he never scored more than 29 in the 3 games versus Houston this season. He won't be able to carry the Warriors against a high-quality Rockets team like he did against the 8th seeded Clippers. If the Rockets are going to steal a road game in this series this looks like a great spot given the rest edge. I am grabbing the points as added insurance but I truly do expect an outright upset. 10* HOUSTON

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #552 Sunday 8* Milwaukee Bucks (-) vs Boston Celtics @ 1:05 ET - Both teams are off first round sweeps. However, while the Bucks absolutely destroyed the Pistons in each and every game, the Celtics barely beat the Pacers in each and every game. The fact is Indiana had a chance to win every single game against Boston but played some of the worst situational basketball I have ever witnessed. The point is that the Celtics won't be so lucky as to receive a gift-wrapped win here from the Bucks like they seemed to receive in nearly every single game with the Pacers in that first round series. This Milwaukee team had the best record in the NBA regular season and, barring a major injury, is built to go all the way this year. That said, I am happy to lay a reasonable number here with the Bucks on their home floor. Milwaukee, if you like them to get the SU win here, should also be whom you back for the cover because 83% of their wins this season came by 8 or more points. In fact, 16 of their 17 wins since March 1st have come by a margin of 8 or more points. As for the Celtics, 8 of their last 11 losses have come by a margin of 8 or more points. Boston is very well-coached and may be able to make some adjustments after Game 1 but I see the Celtics getting blasted here as the Bucks are full of emotion and momentum right now after their first round sweep and are ready to roll on their home floor in this one! 8* MILWAUKEE

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #542 Saturday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (-) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 10:05 ET - The Spurs shot a very high percentage in their Game 6 win and that included both from inside and outside the arc. San Antonio will not repeat that on the road. First off the Spurs have lost 6 of their last 7 road trips to Denver. Secondly, the Nuggets are fired up after letting the elimination opportunity slip away in the 2nd half of that game at San Antonio. Denver, when playing on their home floor off a SU road loss is a perfect 9-0 SU the last 9 times! You can easily see why it is logical for the Nuggets to get this home win. However, what about the cover? Note that each of the last 5 games in this series have been decided by 9 or more points. Also, 6 of the Nuggets last 7 wins have come by a margin of 9 or more points. Each of the Spurs last 6 losses have come by 7 or more points. San Antonio shot a ridiculous 57% from the field in Game 6. The last 7 times the Spurs are off a game where they shot 48% or better from the field, they've gone 1-6 ATS in their next game. You can see whey the odds strongly favor a solid home win for the Nuggets in this win. 10* DENVER

PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #553 Saturday 8* Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 7:35 ET - Too little respect being given to the Sixers here. Yes they went just 1-3 in the regular season series between these teams but this is a different team with all hands on deck and playing the way they're playing right now. Philadelphia didn't have Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris all season long as those guys were acquired during the season. Additionally, Joel Embiid will be playing here for sure and he joins Jimmy Butler and JJ Redick to give the Sixers a very impressive starting five. Additionally, Boban Marjanovic was also acquired during the season and gives Philly a big man off the bench. The 76ers got their wake-up call in Game 1 against the Nets and then won 4 straight games. Speaking of Game 1 significance, the Raptors are 2-14 SU all-time in Game Ones of a playoff series. Considering that poor record as well, I'll gladly grab the Sixers plus the significant points as this line opened up at a 5.5 and is now a 6.5 as of early game day morning. Give me the undervalued underdog here. 8* PHILADELPHIA

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #534 Friday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Clippers (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 10:05 ET - With their upset loss at home on Wednesday, the Warriors are now just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games. Golden State continues to be over-valued and now they are laying double digits on the road in a game where the Clippers absolutely will not quit. Once again it is "win or go home" for Los Angeles and I look for another huge effort here just like we saw in Game 5. The Clippers are 13-7 ATS when trailing in a playoff series and that includes a perfect 3-0 ATS this season. In Friday games this season LA is 10-4 ATS (including 12-2 SU). Though I don't another outright upset tonight I am fully expecting that the Clippers stay within single digits in this one. Keep in mind, after the Clips got blown out in Game 1 of this series, 3 of the last 4 games have been decided by single digits. This one will be too. 10* LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #525 Thursday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 8:05 ET - The Spurs are not the team they use to be and that fact continues to show in the post-season results. San Antonio has lost 11 of its last 14 playoff games, got eliminated from the playoffs in the first round last season, and is about to suffer that same fate this season. Yes, the Spurs have home court on their side in this Game 6 but I love the fact that is allowing us to get the Nuggets +3 in this one. Denver has not only won the last two games (including Game 4 in SA), they've dominated as they've won each of the last two games by double digits. Keep in mind, the Spurs have not held the Nuggets below 108 points in ANY of the last 4 games. Conversely, San Antonio has been held to 105 points or less in 4 of the 5 games. It is easy to see which team is executing better and I look for Denver to close this out tonight but am happy to grab the 3 points as added "insurance" in this one. The Nuggets are 5-2 ATS this season when off a game in which they held their opponent to 90 points or loss. The Spurs are 11-17 ATS when they enter a game having allowed 105 points or more in 3 straight games. Simply put, San Antonio hasn't been able to get stops when they need them throughout the majority of this series. That problem continues to ail them tonight. 10* DENVER

TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #517 Wednesday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) @ Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - The Jazz played much better defense at home than they did in the first two games of this series at Houston. Look for Utah to carry over that strong play to this game. Keep in mind, the Jazz lost Game 3 by only 3 points and then won Game 4 by double digits. Their confidence is growing with each game and the Rockets are now going to be in a fierce war to try and put this team away. The Jazz are 14-6 SU their last 20 games and 4 of the 6 losses have come by 6 points or less. That means if you had Utah +7 or more in their last 20 games you would have cashed 90% of your bets! The point being that, despite how the first two games of this series played out, the Jazz are not an easy team to blowout. With the strong defense expected to continue here, I look for Utah to hang tough with the Rockets throughout Game 5. The Jazz are getting more points tonight (8 or 8.5) than they did in the first two games of this series (6.5) and this is even though they are playing their best basketball of the series right now. I am grabbing the added value and expecting an absolute war tonight that ends up being decided by just a single possession or two at the most when the final horn sounds. 10* UTAH

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #568 Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Clippers (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 3:35 ET - This is an early start time (12:35 PM PT) and the Warriors haven't been at their best in these types of games this season. In fact, Golden State is 2-8 ATS in Sunday games this season while the Clippers have gone 10-5 ATS in Sunday games this season. After LA got thoroughly embarrassed on their home floor in Thursday's action, they've now had two full off days to think about it and build up their intensity for Game 4. I look for a huge effort from the Clippers as the Warriors are unlikely to shoot better than 70% in the first quarter like they did in the big Game 3 win. Going further back, Golden State is 11-23 ATS in their last 34 Sunday games so this hasn't been just a one-season trend for them. Perhaps too many weekend distractions for the best team in the NBA is the culprit but whatever the theory it is not a trend I will ignore. I also love the fact this line is climbing up close to a full 10 points because I know the Clippers aren't going to lay down here. They're going to be going hard for the full 48 and if they fall short I expect it to be just single digits! 10* LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #566 Sunday 8* Indiana Pacers (+) vs Boston Celtics @ 1:05 ET - The Pacers are looking to avoid the sweep and certainly don't want to get knocked out of the playoffs on their home floor via a sweep. Even with winning their last two road games, the Celtics are still only 8-7 SU in road games since the All-Star break. Indiana is 26-10 SU in their last 36 home games. In other words, a bounce back is likely here for the Pacers  Entering a game off exactly 3 straight non-covers, that is a situation that has happened 6 times this season and, in 4 of those 6 occurrences, the Pacers covered the 4th game. Look for that trend to continue here and I expect the outright upset but am happy to take the added point spread value here as a line that opened up around a pick'em now has Indiana catching 3 points on their home floor! The Pacers are 9-3 SU and ATS this season when off an upset loss as a favorite. 8* INDIANA 

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #552 Friday 10* Top Play Orlando Magic (+) vs Toronto Raptors @ 7:05 ET - The Magic have had two full days of rest to ponder getting blasted at Toronto in Game 2 of this series. Orlando, previous to the ugly loss Tuesday, had won 12 of its last 14 games prior to the Game 2 loss. Also, the Magic are certainly happy to be back at home where, since January 31st, they have won 13 of their last 14 games including 9 straight. Yes they played some weaker foes in that stretch but the victories included wins over 4 playoff teams including the 76ers and Warriors. At the very least the Magic have earned some confidence based on their home performance the past 2 and 1/2 months! Orlando also is 15-5 ATS this season versus Atlantic Division foes. The Raptors are still just 7-10 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with a winning record and also 5-11 ATS in Friday games this season. Even including Tuesday's blowout win, this is a Toronto team that is just 9-13 SU and ATS in playoff games. The line opened up at a 4 on this one but has moved to a 5 as the Raptors have the attention of the market. That means even more value with a Magic team that is going to be very tough to put away on their home floor and has a great shot at the upset! They will respond after Tuesday's ugly loss. 10* ORLANDO

PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #543 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers destroyed the Nets in the second half of Game 2. That has set the tone for the rest of this series. Brooklyn embarrassed Philly on their home court in Game 1. Now the Sixers will be looking to return the favor as the series shifts north. The extra rest helps Philadelphia as Joel Embiid continues to battle with knee issues. Considering he only logged 21 minutes in Game 2 and that game took place on Monday, he is likely to be very strong for Game 3 on Thursday. Also, his back-up Boban Marjanovic had a very solid Game 2 and that is a good sign for the 76ers. Note that Philadelphia is 5-2 SU in first round playoff games and this line is only a 2.5 so any SU win likely to lead to a point spread cover as well. Brooklyn, of course, would love to bounce back here but the Nets are 2-6 SU and ATS this season when off a game in which they allowed 130 points or more. 22 of the Nets last 23 losses have come by 3 or more points. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #537 Wednesday 10* Top Play Indiana Pacers (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 7:05 ET - The Pacers scored 8 points in the 3rd quarter Sunday and still almost covered the spread. Indiana made a TOTAL of 8 field goals in the 2nd half Sunday and still almost covered the spread. You get my point. That was UGLY basketball and yet Boston still barely covered the spread. That line, just like this one, was right around a 7.5 and the Celtics prevailed by 10 despite scoring only 84 points. Note that Indiana's lowest scoring game this season had been 89 points. In other words, had the Pacers simply not scored any less than their worst game so far this season they would have won the game outright by 5 points. Give the Celtics defense some credit for sure but also consider it an aberration for the Pacers offense, a one-off if you will. In other words, look for a huge bounce back tonight. Indiana is angry, embarrassed, and they will be on the attack tonight and score much, much better. The Pacers are a long-term 22-11 ATS (including 7-3 ATS this season) when playing with revenge for a road loss by a double digit margin. Indiana is also 20-7 ATS in their last 27 April games and 29-16 ATS when trailing in a playoff series. Boston is 21-32 ATS (including 7-12 ATS this season) as a home favorite in a range of 6.5 to 9 points. Overall, the Celtics had failed to cover 8 STRAIGHT home games prior to their miracle comeback and cover from a double digit half-time deficit in Game One. It is payback time for the Pacers and, even if they fall short of the outright upset, they'll stay inside this number. 10* INDIANA

Zig Zag Best Bet - Rickenbach NBA Game #531 Tuesday 10* Top Play Orlando Magic (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - The zig zag theory is one that often applies come playoff time in the NBA and that is the theory I am using to our advantage here. The fact is the markets often react greatly to the prior game in a series and when the markets zig I often like to zag and go the other way when the situation is right because we're getting extra value. That is precisely the situation here. Yes the Raptors are in bounce back mode and I do expect them to find a way to get the SU win here but I don't expect it to come by a significant margin. The fact is that Orlando has been one of the hottest teams in the league dating back to late January. The Magic have been shooting the ball very well and are playing with a ton of confidence. When you get a team like that getting double digits (by the way this line has gone from opening at 8.5 in some shops to now as 10.5 in some shops) this fits the very definition of a high value dangerous dog. Orlando will be playing in Toronto for the 3rd time already this month and 4th time since late February so they're certainly getting more and more comfortable playing here. As for confidence level, the Magic are actually 3-2 SU versus the Raptors this season and one of those two losses came by just 2 points. The other one came by a dozen points but Orlando actually had 9 more shots from the field than Toronto did but yet lost by 12 because the Raptors hit an insane 19 of 37 three pointers. Again, you can see why I am seeing value signs flashing here when we can get Orlando plus double digit points given all of the above factors. Toronto is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 home games and also 2-6 SU and ATS when trailing in a playoff series! The Magic are 13-4 ATS their last 17 games against teams with a winning record and also 15-4 ATS this season against Atlantic Division opponents. Grab the undervalued big dog in this one. 10* ORLANDO

Rise of the Fallen - Rickenbach NBA Game #522 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Brooklyn Nets @ 8 ET - After being embarrassed in Game 1 and ruthlessly criticized as the most unacceptable effort of any team so far in this post-season, the 76ers respond Monday. The reason you're seeing this line exactly where it was at for Game 1 is because the odds makers are expecting the same thing that sharp bettors, the Sixers will respond in a big way here. If you look at the box score from Saturday's ugly home loss for Philadelphia, you'll see that the Nets and Sixers each took about 25 three-pointers. The difference? Brooklyn made 11 of theirs and the 76ers made a paltry 3 of theirs...on their home floor no less! The point is that this is a 24 point difference. If you assume the teams just shot equally from beyond the arc in Game 1 the Sixers win the game by a 15-point margin. Philly won the rebounding battle and also got to the line more - 16 more free throw attempts than the Nets. Back to the 3 point shooting, note that the Nets shot 35% from three point land this season while the Sixers shot 38% from beyond the arc in their home games. In other words, you can see just how unlikely those disparate 3-point shooting stats were in Game 1. Philly is a long-term 38-19 ATS when revenging a home loss and that includes 7-3 ATS this season! The Nets are 8-17 SU when they enter a game on an under streak of 3 or more consecutive unders. That SU record is noteworthy here as the Nets last 22 losses have featured 18 by 8 or more points. In other words, when Brooklyn loses they normally lose big and I expect that to prove to be the case again today. Payback time! 10* PHILADELPHIA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #511 Sunday 8* Indiana Pacers (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 1 ET - The Pacers, of course, are without Victor Oladipo but that has been the situation since late January so they have already adjusted. As for the Celtics, they just lost Marcus Smart to an oblique injury and he'll miss this series entirely. Additionally, Boston's Jaylen Brown continues to deal with back spasms. The Pacers lost here by just 2 points two weeks ago but then last week the Celtics pounded them at Indiana. However, the Pacers were missing guard Darren Collison for that game and he is back now. Even though Boston only went 7-6 down the stretch, Indiana did even worse by going 4-9. That allowed the Celtics to overtake the Pacers and have the home court edge in this series. However, Indiana knows they can take it back with just one win here in Boston. Yesterday we saw 3 of the 4 road dogs not even cover but win the game outright to open up their first round playoff series. I would not be surprised to see the same thing here. The Pacers are on a 7-2 ATS run in playoff games. The Celtics went 6-12 ATS this season as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. Boston wasn't playing well enough in the latter part of the season to justify laying 7 points here. The Pacers nearly beat them here March 29th and the Celtics had Smart for that game. When you can grab a sizable dog that has a great shot at the outright upset you do it. That is the case here. 8* INDIANA

PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Saturday 8* Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Brooklyn Nets @ 2:30 ET - With the news that Joel Embiid is doubtful for this game, great line value for the Sixers has been created. They are laying a short number here considering they absolutely coasted down the stretch, rested guys, didn't play defense, and the list goes on. Watch what happens today now that the games actually matter again, they are at home, and the other 4 starters will all be on the floor. Butler, Simmons, Harris and Redick form quite a grouping of talent even if Embiid does not play. Also the pick up of big man Boban Marjanovic has truly proven to be a big addition with Embiid's ongoing knee and back issues. Boban Marjanovic is quite the presence in the paint. Brooklyn had a losing record on the road this season plus went 19-35 SU as an underdog this season. From a SU perspective, the 76ers (31-10 SU at home) certainly should win this game. What about the spread though? Consider that Philly is on a 4-1 ATS run in first round playoff games. Also, the Nets last 22 losses have featured 18 by 8 or more points. In other words, when Brooklyn loses they normally lose big and I expect that to prove to be the case again today. Great line value here as this line has dropped from a 7.5 to a 5.5 and, honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if Embiid does get some minutes in this game. But even without him, the Sixers are the much better team than the Nets and they defend home court here, literally! Look for a much better effort from the 76ers defense than what you've been seeing late in the regular season. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #512 Tuesday 8* Minnesota Timberwolves (+) vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - The Raptors are going to the post-season of course and the Wolves are not. Toronto also has been playing much better than Minnesota has. However, this is the Raptors last game of the regular season and they are locked into the #2 spot in the Eastern Conference. Of course Toronto would like to close the regular season with a win and wants to continue to play well. However, the last thing they want is to get anyone injured in this game. Of course Minnesota has no concerns about that and I expect them to go very hard in what is their final home game of the season. The Timberwolves are off a poor effort on defense that cost them in a 6-point home loss to Oklahoma City Sunday. I expect Minnesota to respond here in what is their last chance to get a win for the home fans. Many will likely be surprised to hear this (and I am aware that Minnesota is a different team now than earlier in the season) but the Wolves 25-15 home record is identical to the Raptors 25-15 road record. In other words, and especially given the situation, should Toronto really be laying 7 here? Absolutely not! Give me the home dog in this one! 8* MINNESOTA 

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #504 Tuesday 8* Cleveland Cavaliers (+) vs Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - The line on Charlotte has gone from as low as a -6 to as high as a -8 and that makes sense for multiple reasons. The Hornets need to win for playoff reasons, Cleveland has lost 9 straight games, and Charlotte has won 3 straight games. However, the key reason it doesn't make sense is a mediocre Hornets team is laying a big number on the road against a Cavaliers playing their final game of the season and the Cavs are at home. I don't see Cleveland laying down in a situation like this as they also can play the role of spoiler here. Additionally, Charlotte is banged up right now. The home team has won all 3 games this season and each win has come by double digits. While I don't necessarily see the Cavs winning this one at home by double digits I also certainly don't foresee a full reversal and the Hornets winning this by double digits on the road. In other words, look for a dog fight to the finish in this one. Charlotte is 5-14 ATS (including 1-3 ATS this season) when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 or more games. The Cavaliers are 7-1 ATS in Tuesday games this season and will go hard for the home fans in their final game of the season. 8* CLEVELAND

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #578 Sunday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (-) vs Orlando Magic @ 7:35 ET - The first number that popped up off shore on this one Saturday afternoon had the Celtics favored by 6.5 and it has dropped to as low as a 4.5 as of early Sunday morning. This is offering us great line value here with Boston at home as Orlando is currently getting a little too much respect. The Magic are off a blowout win but it came against an Atlanta team that decided just to "go through the motions" on Friday. Orlando took advantage on their home floor. But now the Magic are on the road and facing a Boston team that, as usual, has been strong at home this season. Also, the Celtics are motivated here as they look to lock up the home seed for their upcoming first round series with the Pacers. Orlando is only 15-24 on the road this season and the Celtics are 28-12 at home on the season. Each of the last 7 losses for the Magic have come by 5 or more points with each of the last 6 coming by 8 or more points. 10 of the Celtics last 12 wins have come by 5 or more points. The home team is 12-4 ATS in Orlando's last 16 games. The Magic have been hot but the Celtics are also heating up, including Gordon Hayward, and they've won 5 of their last 6 games. 10* BOSTON

NBA TV Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #559 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Chicago Bulls @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers, of course, have some injury/rest concerns as they try and get prepared for the playoffs. However, their inexcusable loss to the Bucks (Philly led by 5 with just a couple minutes left) has resulted in the Sixers FIRST 3-game losing streak of this entire season. Of course it is a bad time to be cold and they know it. They will respond here and, as far as whom sits and whom plays for the Sixers, note that the Bulls are also ravaged by injuries. Chicago is off an upset in at Washington as roughly a double digit dog too. How did they do it? The Wizards played like they didn't care and the Bulls (even with many unknown players) shot a ridiculous 61% from two-point land. I will challenge them to do that again here as they take on a very hungry 76ers team that certainly is in a much different situation than that of the Wizards. This Philly teams needs a win and needs to get their confidence and swagger back so I don't expect them to take their foot off the gas here. Keep in mind, the Sixers also are now in need of at least one win to lock down the #3 seed they've worked so hard for. Plenty of motivation here and don't let the big spread scare you. Philly, finally, goes the full 48 minutes in this one! They have two days off after this so the 76ers will NOT hold back. The Bulls are 14-25 ATS at home this season. Chicago is also 6-11 ATS off an upset win as an underdog. Also, the Bulls most recent loss came by 8 points but 6 of the prior 8 came by 9 or more points and this one has double digit blowout written all over it. 10* PHILADELPHIA

NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #557 Saturday 8* Brooklyn Nets (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 5:05 ET - Not only are the Bucks off a miracle cover at Philadelphia Thursday (they were -5.5 and won by 6 despite being down by 5 with just a couple minutes left in game), it is also true that Milwaukee could care or less about this game. The Bucks have already locked up the #1 seed for the post-season in the Eastern Conference. They want to stay in rhythm but they also want to avoid injury. Even if they do get up by double digits in this game (which I honestly do not expect) the back door would be wide open for the Nets to come back as, again, there just isn't motivation here for Milwaukee. As for Brooklyn, there is some motivation as they've lost all 3 games with the Bucks by a double digit margin this season. Look for this one to be much closer than the other 3 given the situation. Also, Milwaukee is 2-7 ATS this season in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 230. The Nets are 9-4 ATS this season when playing with 2 days of rest between games and they get the cash again here. 8* BROOKLYN

SE Div GOY - Rickenbach NBA Game #535 Friday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Orlando Magic @ 7:05 ET - This is one of those beautiful late season situations simply too good to pass up on. The Magic control their own destiny because if they win out they are in the post-season. However, they now host a divisional foe that would love nothing more than to play the role of spoiler here. Keep in mind, even without big man Dewayne Dedmon, the Hawks continue to look strong! Atlanta has won 5 of its last 7 SU and also gone 6-1 ATS during this stretch. They are relishing the role of spoiler and truly fit the bill as a dangerous dog in a spot like this. All the pressure is on the Magic here and when a team starts to feel pressure that is when they start losing their shooting touch. This line has gone from as low as a -6 yesterday afternoon all the way up to as high as a -9 early this morning. Of course bettors love to bet the teams that "need to win" and yet that so often proves to be the WRONG thing to do and I fully expect that will be the case again tonight. The Magic are going to have a fight on their hands with the Hawks who continue to scratch, flight, and claw their way to gritty victories and covers. With Trae Young dominating the backcourt and John Collins getting it done in the frontcourt, the Hawks have proven to be a handful for playoff-bound teams like the 76ers and Spurs. Perhaps Atlanta falls short of the upset tonight but, if they do, I expect them to lose this game by only a possession or two so the points should prove to be more than enough here for the cover! The Hawks also are 11-6 ATS their last 17 games against teams with a losing record. The Magic are 3-11 ATS (and only 5-9 SU) in Friday night games this season. Upset alert! 10* ATLANTA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #526 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:05 ET - The Sixers have been resting Joel Embiid and that could be the case again tonight plus Jimmy Butler is a question mark too. Of course this is why you're seeing the Bucks favored by as much as 5.5 in this one as of Thursday morning when lines first popped up again on this after it was off the board. Philadelphia is off back to back losses but the Sixers are 6-0 SU this season when they enter a game off B2B losses. You read that right...Philly has NOT lost three straight games yet this season and yet they are a 5.5 point home dog here. I'll take it! Yes the Bucks are a great team but Philly isn't just going to lay down here at home. Also, the Sixers cupboard certainly is far from bare if they decide to rest 1 or 2 players tonight. The Bucks have lost 5 of their last 8 road games SU. Also, the Bucks depth has been impacted by a slew of injuries lately. The Sixers won and covered the most recent meeting in Milwaukee as well as each of the last two meetings in Philly and I look for more of the same here. I do expect the outright win but am grabbing the points for added "insurance" here. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #506 Wednesday 10* Top Play Washington Wizards (-) vs Chicago Bulls @ 7:05 ET - At first glance one would have to question how can the Wizards (eliminated from post-season contention and just terminated the team president) be favored by double digits over anyone. Well, against these Bulls it actually makes perfect sense! Chicago is expected to again be without their 4 leading scorers and they account for about 70 points per game for the Bulls! Of course this is too much to overcome and that was proven when they lost to the lowly Knicks in their most recent game. Chicago is currently putting a team on the floor filled with inexperienced players who are trying to adjust to the NBA game. Conversely, though Washington is also "getting a look" at players for next season, the Wizards younger players are thriving. Washington just won at Denver and got strong contributions from a number of players. The Wizards are playing hard and have won 3 straight games ATS and they rallied from a 15 point and then allowed just 28 second half points to the Nuggets on Sunday. Though just returning from a road trip out west, the fact that the Wizards have had two full off days to prep for this game means they'll be ready and I expect them to dominate on their home floor. Washington will take advantage of a very short-handed Bulls team. Chicago has failed to cover 3 in a row and I foresee the Wizards improving to 4-0 ATS their last 4 games with a dominating home win. 10* WASHINGTON

TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #580 Tuesday 10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder (-) vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:05 ET - Perfect spot for a contrarian play. We get a little extra value here because the Lakers have surprisingly won 4 of their last 5 SU and are on a 5-0 ATS run. The Thunder have been struggling. The key here is OKC is at home and angry due to losing 7 of their last 9 games. Also, this is a home revenge spot for Oklahoma City as they lost as a host versus the Lakers in January. The Thunder lost that game by double digits despite being a double digit favorite! Payback comes big tonight! OKC is a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS on the season when they enter a game having played each of their three prior games at home. The Lakers are 9-18 ATS this season when off a game in which they scored 115 points or more. The recent wins for Los Angeles all have come against below .500 teams. They face a much different "animal" tonight and that "animal" is angry and seeking revenge. This will be a home blowout. 10* OKLAHOMA CITY

NW Div #1 Top Game - Rickenbach NBA Game #571 Monday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (-) @ Minnesota Timberwolves @ 8:05 ET - Great line value here with the Trail Blazers coming off a loss. Yes the Timberwolves recently upset Golden State but that certainly has been the exception rather than the norm for this slumping Minnesota team. Other than that win, the Wolves have won just 1 of their last 8 games and that victory came against lowly Memphis. Now Minnesota is hosting a Trail Blazers team that is angry off a loss and won't lack for focus here. Keep in mind the Blazers lost at Minnesota early this season so they'll be ready to exact road revenge here. Yes, Portland has won their two home match-ups with the Timberwolves this season but now it is time for road payback for that loss in mid-November. As mentioned above, the Blazers enter this game off a loss but, prior to that defeat, they had won 9 of their last 10 games. Yes, Portland is without CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic but that is factored into this line. The fact is that the Wolves are without a number of players too as they enter this match-up and this is simply a matter of the much better in a great spot (off a loss) facing a team that has faded down the stretch run. The result is great line value with the short road favorite. Minnesota is 2-5 ATS when they enter a game having played each of their 3 prior games at home. The Blazers are 9-5 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a losing record and roll again here. Each of the Trail Blazers last 28 wins have come by a margin of 4 or more points! Each of the Wolves last 14 losses have come by a margin of 5 or more points. Lay the short number! 10* PORTLAND

NBA TV Top Play - Rickenbach NBA Game #541 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Minnesota Timberwolves @ 8:05 ET - The markets sometimes help create value where it otherwise should not be and that is the beauty of a situation like this. First off this line was first up at an 8.5 but then got taken down because of Joel Embiid possibly missing this game. Now that it is confirmed that he will sit this game out to get extra rest the line has now plummeted to as low as a 4.5 this morning. The funny thing is did anyone pay attention to last night's games? The 76ers were NOT in action and were resting and getting ready for this game. As for the Wolves they were in the middle of a hard-fought overtime win over the World Champion Warriors last night! So now after knocking off the champs and taking OT to do it, the short-handed Timberwolves (a number of players out recently) are supposed to beat a Sixers team that has man-handled them in recent meetings? Yes I know about the "revenge against Jimmy Butler" angle but Philly is the far superior team and in a much better scheduling situation. This game is set up to be a road rout! Prior to beating GS last night, Minnesota had lost 10 of their 14 prior games. The 76ers enter this game having won 7 of their last 9 games. The Sixers are off a big win over Brooklyn and are 11-4 ATS this season when off a divisional game. The Timberwolves are on a 15-25 ATS run in March games. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Thursday 10* Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Brooklyn Nets @ 7:05 ET - Enough is enough for the Sixers. After knocking off their nemesis (and long-time rival) Boston, they've lost back to back games at Atlanta and Orlando. Now they are back home and in need of a big win and the Nets are going to feel the wrath. Note that Philly is 5-0 SU this season when they enter a game off B2B SU losses. You read that right. The Sixers have NEVER lost 3 straight game this entire season and I don't expect that to change here either. However, what about the spread (currently 7.5) on this game? The fact is that the Nets are 7-26 ATS in their last 33 losses! In other words, when you're holding a Brooklyn ticket and they lose the game SU, you're only cashing your ticket about 20% of the time! I like the 76ers to roll big at home in this one as they also are playing this game with home loss revenge. That is a situation that has seen them go 37-19 ATS in recent seasons including 6-3 ATS this season. Also, when the Sixers are off a loss by a double digit margin, they've gone 37-18 in recent seasons including a superb 10-3 ATS this season. This one has home blowout written all over it. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Early Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #559 Tuesday 10* Top Play Orlando Magic (+) @ Miami Heat @ 7:35 ET - Many will be looking to fade Orlando here because they are off a big win over the 76ers last night so it looks like the ideal spot to go against a team in a back to back situation. However, remember that we are now at the point in the season where there are very few "tomorrows" left for a team. In other words, the Magic need to win now or their season will be coming to an end. They are in a battle with Miami for the top spot in the Southeast Division and punching their ticket to the post-season. That said, there is absolutely not going to be a letdown here from the Magic in the slightest sense of the word. The time to win is now. I also like the fact that Orlando did have two days off prior to hosting the Sixers last night so they are truly not that fatigued here. Additionally, hosting Philly last night was just the 3rd game for Orlando in the past 8 days! As for Miami, though they have been off two days heading into this one they had played 5 games in 7 days prior to the 2-day break. In fact one could argue that the Magic should have the fresher legs here overall despite being in a back to back. Orlando has played less recently than Miami has. Also, not much distance separates these instate rivals so it truly should not come as a big surprise that the road team has covered 4 of the last 5 meetings. The Heat won and covered their most recent home game but that was preceded by a 4-9 ATS run as a host! Also, the Magic are surging with confidence as they bring a 5-game winning streak into this one. If Orlando falls just short here I like the fact we've got a handful of points to work with as well but I am expecting the outright upset here. The Magic are 16-7 ATS after scoring 115 points or more and also 12-6 ATS this season after a win by a double digit margin. Last night they held Philly without a field goal for a stretch of 12 minutes! Miami is 1-6 SU and ATS in Tuesday games and the Heat are an ugly 5-10 ATS in divisional match-ups this season. 10* ORLANDO

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #558 Tuesday 8* Charlotte Hornets (+) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 7:05 ET - The Spurs are off a big road win at Boston on Sunday. However, the road has not been kind to San Antonio of late. In fact the Spurs were 3-8 in their last 11 road games prior to beating the Celtics. Now instead of facing a floundering Boston team that is struggling, the Spurs visit Charlotte where the Hornets are rested and have been buzzing. Charlotte was off yesterday and they enter this game still very much alive in the 3-way race for the Southeast Division. With Miami battling Orlando tonight, the Hornets know that with a win over the Spurs they would be able to gain ground on one of those two teams for sure once tonight's results are in the books. Charlotte enters this game having won 3 straight SU and ATS. Also the Hornets have won 3 of their last 4 home games SU and they are catching a few points here. I like the home dog value being offered here with all things considered. The Spurs are 1-7 ATS the last 8 times they were off a game in which they scored 115 points or more. Look for that trend to continue here. 8* CHARLOTTE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #547 Monday 8* Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Orlando Magic @ 7:05 ET - Great line value here. Orlando is getting some attention because they've won 4 straight games. However, even with winning those 4 games the Magic still have a losing record on the season. Philadelphia is angry after losing at downtrodden Atlanta on Saturday and will atone for that performance here. The 76ers are 9-2 SU their last 11 games against a team with a losing record. Speaking of losing records, the Hawks were one of 4 teams with losing records that Orlando has beaten in their 4-game winning streak. The other 3 were the Pelicans, Grizzlies, and Cavaliers. Those 4 teams are all eliminated from post-season contention and are a combined 86 games under .500 on the season! Now the Magic host a Philly team that is angry off a loss and is 21 games over .500 on the season. This is tremendous line value to have with the Sixers laying a short number and it is because they are on the road and because of Orlando's "fools gold" 4-game winning streak. The Magic face a true test today and it is one they will fail. Philly is 5-1 their last 6 against Orlando and the 5 wins have come by an average margin of a dozen points. Keep in mind the 76ers are 20-5 SU this season when off a loss and this line is only a -2. In other words, any SU win is likely to also equate to an ATS win. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #542 Sunday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (-) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 7:35 ET - While it is true that this is a back to back spot for the Celtics, there are a number of reasons to like Boston plenty in this situation and laying a very short number. The line has dropped from a -3 to a -2 so we're getting some extra value here for sure. Keys to this play include the fact that the Celtics blew a huge late lead in their loss at Charlotte yesterday. As a result, Boston ended up with their 3rd straight SU loss. The Celtics are 9-2 SU and ATS the last 11 times they've entered a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. Boston also has no shortage of motivation here. That's because the Spurs have held the upper hand in recent meetings and that includes the first match-up this season at San Antonio. The Celtics led that game by 6 at the half but then got outscored by 15 points in the 2nd half. It is payback time here. The Spurs are off back to back losses and their recent winning streak that grabbed a lot of attention was filled with home games and a majority of soft opponents. In other words, look for San Antonio to lose their 3rd straight game here as not only are they not at home, they are also certainly not facing a soft opponent. The Spurs have lost 4 of their last 6 road games and the only two wins came at Atlanta and Dallas. Those teams are a combined 37 games under .500 on the season! The Celtics are 98-42 at home including 26-11 this season. With those types of numbers and considering the low spread on this game, I am happy to lay the short number here. 10* BOSTON

Hidden Gem - Rickenbach NBA Game #519 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Atlanta Hawks @ 7:35 ET - I am calling this a hidden gem because the fact it is that on a Saturday when the NCAA Tournament is going in full force there is simply very little attention being paid to the NBA. That works in our favor here as this line should be much higher than an 8. This is a revenge game for Philadelphia as they suffered a home loss at the hands of the Hawks in January. While it is true that the 76ers are off a much needed revenge win over the Celtics, it is also true that they have had two full off days since that game and after facing the Hawks they face another team, Orlando, that also has a losing record on the season. The point is that even if the Sixers start off a bit sluggish in Atlanta their superior talent level is eventually going to lead to a double digit win. Keep in mind the Hawks also, it could be argued, are in a flat spot here. That is because they just rallied for an upset win over the Jazz on Thursday. Prior to that win the Hawks had lost 10 of their last 15 games. The 76ers enter this game having won 6 straight games. Atlanta is 5-11 ATS in games against teams from the Atlantic Division this season. Philly is a long-term 37-18 ATS (including 6-2 ATS this season) when playing with home loss revenge. Also, the Sixers are 11-3 ATS when off a divisional game this season. In other words, even though they are off that big win over the Celtics, don't be surprised when the 76'ers eventually roll to a road rout win at Atlanta on Saturday night. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Early ATS Smash - Rickenbach NBA Game #506 Friday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) vs Los Angeles Clippers @ 7:35 ET - The Cavaliers are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last 4 home games and that included knocking off the Raptors and the Bucks! Now they host a Clippers team playing the first game of an eastern road swing. These road trips tend to be tough on west coast teams. Even if the Clippers find a way to notch a road win here I expect it to come by the slimmest of margins. Certainly with the Cavaliers confidence growing with each late season win they are playing their best basketball of the season and have a chance at the outright upset here. Kevin Love has been cleared to play and that was a key for me in backing the Cavs here. The Clippers are off a win and cover but, prior to that big home win versus the Pacers, the Clips had failed to cover 3 straight games. The Cavaliers are 10-4 ATS this season when off a divisional game. Los Angeles is 12-21 ATS when the Clippers enter a game having played each of their 3 prior games at home. 10* CLEVELAND

Early ATS Smash - Rickenbach NBA Game #586 Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) vs Utah Jazz @ 7:35 ET - The Hawks are off back to back losses (SU and ATS). However, Atlanta previously was on an 11-3 ATS run. Also, though the Hawks have lost 3 straight games SU, that included match-ups with the Celtics and Rockets. Of course the Jazz also fall into the "quality team" category but I like the fact that Atlanta is at home and catching Utah in the 2nd game of a back to back. Getting 8 points with the Hawks in a spot like this is a great value. The Jazz are on a 5-game winning streak both SU and ATS but are still just 3-8 ATS when they enter a game on a SU winning streak of 3 or more games. In other words, don't be surprised when their 5-game run comes to an end tonight (at least ATS). Look for the Hawks to improve to 11-6 ATS this season when they enter a game on a losing streak (SU) of 3 or more games. 10* ATLANTA

Atlantic Division #1 Top Game - Rickenbach NBA Game #568 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Boston Celtics @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers purposely rested Joel Embiid last night in their win at Charlotte so he would be ready for this huge match-up tonight as the Sixers host the Celtics. The very first number that popped up offshore on this one had Philly -4.5 but the line has dropped down to as low as a -2.5 as of early game day morning. This is offering great line value on a Philadelphia team that has an extreme hunger about them when it comes to knocking off Boston here. Not only are the Celtics long-time rivals, not only did Boston knock the 76ers out of the post-season last spring, the C's also have won all 3 meeting this season! To say that Philadelphia "owes them one" is a colossal understatement. The fact is the Sixers owe them plenty and with Boston off a loss and having lost 7 of their last 13 games, the timing is perfect here. The Celtics games against quality opponents (Denver, Clippers, Golden State, Houston, Portland, Toronto, Milwaukee) have seen them go 1-6 SU since the All-Star break. In other words, with the exception of beating the Warriors, the only wins that Boston has been getting since the All Star break have come against weak foes. Also, the Celtics last 6 losses have come by an average margin of 14 points so the spread should not be an issue here. As for the 76ers, they have won 5 straight games. Also, the Sixers have won 14 of their last 20 home games. When playing with home loss revenge Philly is 37-17 ATS including 6-1 ATS this season. The Celtics have covered just 6 of their last 18 road games. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #551 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers have Boston on deck and also will be resting Joel Embiid tonight. As a result, many will be looking the way of the Hornets in this one tonight. However, Charlotte is 0-9 SU in their last 9 games against the Sixers. Also, the Hornets play in the weakest division in the NBA. Even though Charlotte fell short at Miami Saturday, they are still 10-5 against Southeast Division opponents. That means that the Hornets are a horrible 21-33 against the rest of the league! They now host a Sixers team that is 45-25 on the season! Also, Philly is 8-1 SU its last 9 versus teams with a losing record. The Hornets are 3-10 SU their last 13 versus teams with a winning record. Charlotte is also a long-term 14-36 ATS (16-34 SU) against Atlantic Division opponents. The Hornets enter this game on a 4-10 SU run and 3-11 ATS run. Also, even though Philly has the Celtics on deck, they are well aware of the fact that they are in a huge battle with the Indiana and Boston in terms of the 3,4,5 seeding in the Eastern Conference. Dropping to 5th means no home court edge in the opening series. In other words, with just a dozen regular season games left, every W counts. Look for the 76ers to get this W against an out-classed Charlotte team as the Sixers make it 10 in a row over the Hornets. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #537 Monday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 7:35 ET - Many believe the Western Conference is better than the Eastern Conference and it has been that way for many consecutive seasons. I feel we're getting great value here with a high-quality Nuggets team as a sizable underdog here. The Celtics are 10-17 ATS against the West this season. Denver enters this game having gone 16-8 SU against the East this season. Also, the Nuggets are 14-8 ATS (15-7 SU) this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 or more consecutive games. Boston is a long-term 11-20 ATS in home games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The Celtics are 3-8 ATS the last 11 times they've allowed 115 points or more. Boston got the sweep last season (but only by a combined margin of 7 points) and the Nuggets are looking to return the favor this season after already winning at home by 8 points earlier in the season. Based on the above trends, the situational value here, and the fact the Celtics are a little banged up, don't be surprised if the road dog wins this one outright. Grab the points! 10* DENVER

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #521 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 3:35 ET - Not only is Philadelphia 10-5 SU their last 15 games, 3 of the 5 losses came by 3 or less points. Of course that means that at +6.5 (the current line on today's game), the 76ers would be on a 13-2 ATS run. Certainly Milwaukee deserves plenty of respect and the Bucks are at home here. However, there isn't nearly enough respect being given to a Sixers team that is viewing this game as a chance to prove themselves against one of the best teams in the league. The Bucks have covered each of their last two home games but prior to that they were on an 0-3 ATS run in home games. Keep in mind, Milwaukee just returned from a 3-game road trip too. Conversely, Philly has won 3 straight games and has been enjoying the comforts of home. The 76ers have revenge from a loss by a double digit margin at Milwaukee in their first meeting this season. Philadelphia is a much different team now than they were then when these teams met in late October. Keep in mind the Bucks were only favored by 5 in that game. Now they are favored by 6.5 even though the Sixers now have Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris. You can see why the Sixers are offering great value here. Also, Philly is 38-18 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season. The Sixers are also 57-30 ATS when coming off a non-conference game. The Bucks are 2-6 ATS in a home game with a posted total of 230 points or more. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Saturday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns (+) @ New Orleans Pelicans @ 7:05 ET - The Pelicans have a winning record at home this season. The Suns are 6-30 on the road this season. So when this line opened up at nearly a pick'em, it comes as no surprise that everyone jumped all over New Orleans in this game and drove the line to as high as a -3 on the Pelicans. However, do you think the odds makers are fools? They knew what they were doing here! Anthony Davis (rest) and Jrue Holiday (abdominal) are listed as out for this game. Also, the Pelicans have lost 5 straight games overall and also 5 straight home games. The Suns have been playing better of late as they've actually won 5 of their last 9 games overall. Also, Phoenix is on a perfect 4-0 ATS run in road games and 2 of those wins were outright upset wins. Ride the hot team (Phoenix) in this one as they improve to 8-4 ATS this season when playing the 2nd game of a back to back. In the process, the Suns will drop New Orleans to 3-10 SU this season when playing the 2nd game of a back to back. 10* PHOENIX

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #574 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Sacramento Kings @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers have revenge from a loss at Sacramento earlier this season and, keep in mind, the Kings did sweep Philly last season. It is definitely payback time here and the Sixers are catching Sacramento at the right time to exact revenge. The Kings are off a hard-fought loss at Boston last night. Note that the Kings are an ugly 2-8 ATS this season when playing the 2nd game of a back to back. Also, the Sixers SU and ATS loss at Sacramento early last month certainly appears to be an aberration. The 76ers are a fantastic 7-1 SU and ATS in their other 8 games against Pacific Division opponents this season. Philly's Ben Simmons has been upgraded to probable for this game as well and a double digit victory is in the forecast here. The Sixers playing with 2 days of rest between games while the Kings are in a back to back. 10* PHILADELPHIA

PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #506 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Indiana Pacers @ 3:35 ET - It looks like Joel Embiid will be back for this game. Even though the Sixers got blown out by the Rockets in their most recent game they truly were done in by poor shooting. If they had just shot "normal" Philly would have won the game outright. Instead it was a blowout loss but that helps with the line value here actually. The 76ers are a very manageable favorite against a Pacers team that they blew out by 24 in the most recent meetings at Indiana. The Pacers are on a poor 3-11 ATS run in their last 14 road games. The Sixers are very hungry for a win here and will be rejuvenated by the expected return of Embiid and the fact this game is at home. Philly is off back to back losses and they are a perfect 4-0 SU when off B2B straight-up losses this season. Indeed, the 76ers have not lost 3 straight games this entire season and I don't expect that to change here. Indiana is playing this game with home loss revenge but that is a situation that has seen them go 2-5 ATS this season. The Sixers are 36-18 ATS (including 9-3 ATS this season) when off a loss by a double digit margin. Also, Philly is 74-46 ATS long-term in home games. Look for a blowout by the host in this one with a winning margin by double digits expected. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #539 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Chicago Bulls @ 8:05 ET - Both teams in a back to back spot here. This line opened up at a -6 and dropped to a -5 on Philly. Although the Bulls have won some games recently those victories have almost all come over poor teams with losing records. One exception was the Celtics but Boston was in a funk at the time. The fact is that Chicago is an ugly 4-24 SU this season in games against teams with a winning record. The 76ers are a solid 17-6 SU this season in games against teams with a losing record. You can see why the likelihood is high that the Sixers get the win. That said, the pointspread dropping to a -5 offers significant value here. 38 of the Bulls 46 losses this season have come by a margin of at least 5 points. Philadelphia has had a lot of rest prior to this back to back situation so that sets them up well. Yesterday's win over Orlando was just the 3rd game for the 76ers in the past 8 days. The Bulls, conversely, will be playing for the 4th time in 6 days. Chicago is 6-14 ATS (1-19 SU!) in their last 20 home games that had a posted total of 220 points or more. The Sixers are on a 23-12 ATS run in March games. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Monday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 8:35 ET - The Spurs are 3-0 ATS in their last 3 meetings with the Nuggets and that includes covering both match-ups this season. Those games took place in late December. The Spurs were favored by 4 when they hosted the Nuggets the day after Christmas. Now, the first lines that popped up on this game yesterday afternoon had Denver as a 2 point favorite. Of course the markets are jumping all over the perceived "mistake" and have now moved the line to San Antonio being the favorite. I understand the perception but that doesn't mean I agree with it! The Nuggets are only a game over .500 in road games this season while the Spurs are 24-7 on their home floor this season. But I am here to tell you that the Nuggets are the much better overall team in comparison with this season's version of the Spurs. Yes San Antonio is off back to back wins but they previously lost 7 of their 8 prior games. I know those games were on the road but the Spurs also got blown out by double digits by the Nets and Knicks! Catching one of the best teams in the league now off back to back losses and we're not even having to lay any points (thanks to being on the road and thanks to the market action), the Nuggets are the play here. They led the Spurs by double digits at half when these teams most recently met but had a rare bad game in terms of turnovers and allowed San Antonio to close that gap in the 2nd half and lose by just 3 points. That result also now giving us some line value here as the Nuggets have substantial edges all over the floor in this match-up. The last 6 times the Nuggets have entered a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games SU, they've gone 5-1 SU and I expect another win here in that situation. The Spurs, prior to back to back covers against the Pistons and Thunder, had gone 1-10 ATS in their 11 previous games! By the way, San Antonio was outshot by a combined 16 shots from the field in the games against Detroit and OKC. That catches up with the Spurs in this one and the Nuggets pull away as this game gets into the latter stages. 10* DENVER 

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #573 Sunday 8* Portland Trail Blazers (-) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 1:05 ET - The Trail Blazers are on a 6-0 ATS run. However, they are off a tight SU loss (at Toronto) in their most recent game. That serves as plenty of motivation here as Portland had entered that game winning 5 straight. Look for the Blazers to resume the winning here. They catch the Hornets off a big road win at Brooklyn. Prior to that win Charlotte had lost 7 of their 9 previous games. The Hornets surely want revenge here as they got thrashed by the Blazers at Portland in January by 31 points. However, the Trail Blazers enter this game fired up after the loss to the Raptors and I don't see them being denied here. They are the vastly superior team to the Hornets and we get line value here since this game is at Charlotte. Lay the short number with the road favorite in this one. 8* PORTLAND

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #564 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 8:35 ET - This line opened up at a -4 on the Warriors and quickly jumped up to a -5 as the markets are loving backing Golden State here since they have revenge from earlier this season. Also, with Joel Embiid and Boban Marjanovic out for the Sixers that has captured attention as well. What is getting overlooked however is that the Warriors are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and Klay Thompson is dealing with a sore knee. They may rest him here. Additionally, the Sixers are at home and playing for just the 2nd time in 5 nights. This is part of a stretch where Philadelphia plays only 3 games in 8 days as they have two more days off after this game. From a scheduling standpoint this situation is a great one for Philly and you know that the Wells Fargo Center will be rocking with the defending NBA champs in town. The Sixers are hungry to prove they are a legitimate threat for the NBA title. Even without  Embiid, this team is highly talented with Jimmy Butler, Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris, and JJ Redick. The betting public loves the Warriors but Golden State is on a 2-10 ATS skid. The Sixers are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS against Pacific Division opponents this season. The 76ers are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games overall and one of those two losses came by just points. We're catching 5 here and the home dog Sixers have a great shot at the outright upset as the Warriors have lost 4 of their last 6 SU. One of those two Golden State SU wins came by just two points. Grab the generous points being offered here. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #541 Friday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - Both teams are off wins over the Celtics. Even though the Raptors have an extra day of rest here in comparison with the Blazers, the fact is that the win over Boston was a much bigger victory for Toronto than Portland. Of course that is because the Celtics are divisional rivals of the Raptors. Note that the first 12 times this season that Toronto has been off a divisional game, they've covered their next game just 3 times. That is a poor 25% ATS rate for the Raptors when off a divisional game this season and, again, that win over Boston wasn't just "any" divisional game! Some will be looking to Toronto to get revenge here too because they lost the first game at Portland this season. However, that game against Boston meant a helluva lot more to the Raptors than this game does. Also, Toronto swept the Trail Blazers last season so it is Portland that is now looking to return the favor this season. The Blazers enter this game red hot as they are on a 5-0 SU and ATS run. As for the Raptors, they had failed to cover 5 straight games before the big win over the Celtics. Look for Toronto to drop to 4-9 ATS in Friday games this season while the Blazers add to an impressive record in March games that is 25-6 SU and ATS the past two seasons! Also, the Trail Blazers are 6-2 ATS (and 8-0 SU!) against Atlantic Division opponents. 10* PORTLAND

PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #539 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 8:05 ET - With big men Joel Embiid and Boban  Marjanovic sidelined for this one, there has been a huge jump in the line. The very first number that was posted offshore yesterday was a 5 and now this line is up to an 8. Keep in mind, the Sixers still have ton of talent on the floor with Ben Simmons, Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris, and JJ Redick. Also, Jonah Bolden and Mike Scott are capable of putting up some solid numbers with both Embiid and Marjanovic expected to be out for this game. We're getting a ton of value here with the big points being offered. The Thunder stole one from the Sixers last month in Philly and the 76ers haven't forgotten that game. The fact is that Oklahoma City has had the Sixers number in recent years but of course this season is the best 76ers team they've faced in a long time. Again, even with Embiid and Marjanovic out, I don't see this being an easy win at all for the Thunder. Philly is hell-bent on getting revenge here and Oklahoma City is on an 0-4 ATS skid as the only SU win they have during this stretch came by a single point. For those of you that like statistical odds too, the fact is that there is an interesting pattern with Philly this season. They have 39 wins on the season and, amazingly, they have had only 3 standalone wins. What I mean by that is when the Sixers are off a win that followed a loss they almost always follow it with another win. They have 14 streaks of 2 or more wins. They have had only 3 occurrences where they produced just a single win and all those were in calendar year 2018. In other words, don't be surprised if Philadelphia shocks and gets the outright upset win here but, of course, I am grabbing the points with the 76ers as added insurance! The Sixers are 36-17 ATS including 5-1 ATS (and SU!) this season when playing with home loss revenge. The Thunder are 1-9 ATS (and 3-7 SU!) when off a division game. Could be a shocker in OKC tonight. 10* PHILADELPHIA 

PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #575 Monday 8* Philadelphia 76'ers (+) @ New Orleans Pelicans @ 8:05 ET - Yes the Sixers are without Joel Embiid right now but this is still a team that is loaded with talent and yet coming off an embarrassing home loss. The 76ers lost to Portland by 15 points on Saturday. In other other words Philly is going to be read to go here. The earliest line on this game had Philadelphia favored by 1.5 points but now they are a dog by 1.5 points. As long-time followers know I love going against line moves like this and the set up here is very strong. Note that the Sixers are 9-2 ATS (and 10-1 SU!) this season when off a loss by a double digit margin. As for the Pelicans, if they win this game (by looking at the low number) odds are they get the cover. In other words, outside of a 1-point win, any Charlotte win would also be a cover based on this number. Why is that significant? Because the Pelicans are coming off a win here and they have not followed a SU win with a win and cover after ANY of their last 6 wins! Not only is that 0-6 run working in our favor here (and the Sixers 10-1 run favoring us too) but also note the simple fact that the Pelicans had lost 11 of their last 16 games before beating the Lakers Friday. New Orleans is also 1-6 SU this season when off an upset win as an underdog. From a situational standpoint, this is a great situation filled with value. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #559 Sunday 10* Top Play San Antonio Spurs (-) @ New York Knicks @ 7:35 ET - The Knicks are the worst team in the NBA. Yes, this is a significant number of points to lay on the road, especially with a team that has been struggling ATS. However, the Spurs did play quite well at Toronto Friday and that is why they got the cover and very nearly got the outright win. Keep in mind that was with LaMarcus Aldridge scoring only 6 points and certainly he was not himself in that game. Aldridge has been upgraded to probable for this game. Considering he is highly likely to play much better and considering the Spurs are hungry for a win and facing an awful Knicks team, you can see why I am expecting a road win by a double digit margin in this one. The Spurs are on an 18-9 ATS run in Sunday games including 4-2 ATS this season. San Antonio is on an 18-8 ATS run against Atlantic Division foes including 5-1 ATS this season. Even though the Knicks are off a double digit loss and would love to bounce back here, note that New York is 9-19 ATS this season when they are off a game which they lost by a margin of 10 points or more. Note also that this will be New York's 29th home game this season. So far the Knicks have only 9 ATS covers this season on their home floor! The Spurs are hungry and they know they need this game tonight as tomorrow's game at Brooklyn is a much tougher match-up than this one. Coach Gregg Popovich has the troops ready for this one. 10* SAN ANTONIO

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #555 Sunday 8* Orlando Magic (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 3:35 ET - The Raptors are off a revenge minded win over the Spurs on Friday. It was a hard-fought game and you know former Spurs Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green wanted that game badly. Now the Raptors have another revenge game here but it is not nearly as motivating as the game against the Spurs was. That said, once again I look for a SU win for the Raptors but a non-covering win just like we saw in the game versus San Antonio on Friday. The fact is that Toronto is known for playing to the level of their competition. The Raptors enter this game having failed to cover 4 straight games. Also, Orlando has covered both match-ups this season and the Magic enter this game with plenty of confidence. That's because Orlando, prior to a tight 1-point home loss to Chicago on Friday, had won and covered 5 straight games and 7 of their last 8. The Magic are 8-2 ATS in Sunday games this season and also a superb 10-1 ATS versus Atlantic Division opponents this season. Not only are the Raptors off a huge win versus the Spurs, they have a massive game (versus Boston) on deck for Tuesday. From a situational perspective this is a horrible spot for Toronto. Also note that the Raptors are 5-12 ATS this season when off a game where they allowed 115 points or more. 8* ORLANDO

PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #532 Saturday 8* Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 1:05 ET - The home team has won 8 straight games in this series. Couple that with the fact that this line is a very short number (thanks to Joel Embiid being out) and you have great value with the home side in this match-up. Keep in mind the Sixers also have revenge here from being thoroughly embarrassed at Portland in late December. The 76ers were down 29 points at the half and lost that game by a margin of 34 points. Philly is 24-7 SU at home this season. The Trail Blazers are on a 9-16 ATS run in February games and, prior to their win at Brooklyn Thursday, had lost 5 of their last 7 road games both SU and ATS. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #526 Friday 8* Memphis Grizzlies (+) vs Los Angeles Clippers @ 8:05 ET - As of early this morning the Clippers are favored by as little as a point and a half. Keep in mind, Los Angeles is currently in a playoff spot and 5 games above .500 while the Grizzlies are 13 games under .500 and next to last in the Western Conference. The odds makers must be "way off" on this one, right? Long-time followers know how I feel about that, as a general rule, and I am going contrarian here and going with the "ugly home dog" theory in this one. In terms of support for this play, Memphis is 3-2 SU (5-0 ATS!) in their last 5 home games. Overall the Grizzlies are on a solid 7-2-1 ATS run. The Clippers are off a SU (and ATS) win and they've been in a pattern of "win one / lose one" for awhile. Also, since the calendar turned the page to 2019, LA has managed only 2 ATS win streaks, each just 3 games. The home team has won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these teams. The Clippers had a blowout 134-107 win versus Phoenix before the All Star break and are a long-term 5-11 ATS when off a game in which they scored 130 points or more. 8* MEMPHIS

PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Miami Heat @ 7:05 ET - The fact that the Sixers are without Joel Embiid for this one is keeping this line to a very manageable number considering Philly is on their home floor and the Heat have been struggling. The 76ers, even without Embiid, are still the much more talented team here. Philadelphia has Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris, Jimmy Butler, and JJ Redick. Additionally, the Sixers new reserve big man Boban Marjanovic will step up with Embiid being out. Philly is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS the last 7 times they've hosted Miami. Of course the Heat have revenge here as they were ousted from the playoffs by the Sixers last spring but, keep in mind, they had that revenge on their mind earlier this season too when they hosted the 76ers and yet they still lost by double digits at Miami! The Heat enter this game having lost 6 of their past 8 games. The Sixers are off a win and have won 14 of 21 in the New Year. Philly did lose their most recent home game but had won 9 of 12 prior on their home floor. 8 of the 76ers last 9 wins have come by 7 or more points and I see every reason to expect another win by at least that margin tonight! 10* PHILADELPHIA

PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #509 Wednesday NBA 8* Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ New York Knicks @ 7:35 ET - The Celtics Gordon Hayward whom has averaged ONE made three-pointer per game went 6 for 7 from beyond the arc last night which was undoubtedly the difference in the game. Boston won at Philly by 3 points and Hayward had 15 more points than usual from beyond the arc. Flip that around to normal and the Sixers win the game by a DOZEN points. In any event, sometimes crazy stuff does happen in these games and, as a result of last night's nonsense, you're going to see a HIGHLY motivated Philadelphia team taking the court in New York tonight. While the Knicks have another game tomorrow before the All Star break, this is it for the Sixers. After this game Philly doesn't play again until a full WEEK from Thursday. In other words Philly is going to make this one count and I expect them to take advantage of a very bad, and downtrodden, Knicks team. New York has lost 17 straight games. The last two losses have been tight defeats but 12 of the 15 prior losses in this streaks have all come by 9 or more points. When Philly wins, they generally cover. In fact the Sixers ATS record is 22-3 (88%) in their last 25 SU wins. Per all of the above stats you can see why that if one expects Philly to win SU one can also expect them to win ATS. This game has road rout written all over it and I don't see the 76ers being denied. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Wednesday 10* Top Play Detroit Pistons (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 7:35 ET - The Celtics Gordon Hayward whom has averaged ONE made three-pointer per game in his CAREER went 6 for 7 from beyond the arc last night which was undoubtedly the difference in Boston's upset win over the 76ers. The Celtics won at Philly by 3 points yesterday and Hayward had 15 more points than usual from beyond the arc. Flip that around to normal and Boston loses the game by a DOZEN points. In any event, sometimes crazy stuff does happen in these games and, as a result of highly unlikely shooting result leading to an emotional upset win for the Celtics, this is pure and simple a flat spot for Boston. Of course that is why odds maker opened this line up with the Celtics favored by less than a half dozen points even though they are on their home floor. Keep in mind Kyrie Irving has been out for Boston and I would be very surprised to see him return tonight considering this is the Celtics final game before the All Star break. The smart thing to do is to let him continue to rest his knee and have continued rest then through the break. Boston had failed to cover 3 straight games before the unlikely upset win last night. Conversely, the Pistons enter this game having won (and covered) 4 straight games. Detroit also has covered its last two games against the Celtics and has the size in the paint to give Boston some trouble. This is especially true when the Pistons have a significant rest edge like they do here. The Celtics are 3-5 SU (and 2-6 ATS!) this season in the 2nd game of a back to back. Detroit is playing with a lot of confidence right now and has done well all season when in a situation like this. That is, the Pistons are 8-5 ATS (and 10-3 SU!) when off a game in which they scored 115 points or more! This one has upset written all over it and I am happy to grab the generous points being offered. 10* DETROIT

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #574 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers are a much different team than the ones that the Celtics have dominated in recent meetings. Not only did Boston knock Philly out of the playoffs in 5 games in May, the Celtics also have won each of the first two meetings this season. However, not only were those games at Boston and this one is in Philadelphia, the Sixers also are now stacked. Not only do they now have a "Big Four" with Embiid, Simmons, Butler and Harris, the 76ers also still have JJ Redick and the sharp-shooter is currently red hot from beyond the arc. They are loaded with weapons while the Celtics are actually down a key one today as Kyrie Irving (knee) has been downgraded to out for this game! Boston is 9-17 ATS this season in road games and also just 3-6 ATS as an underdog this season. All 3 of those wins were outright upset wins. In other words, the Celtics have not covered a single game this season that they've lost SU as an underdog. That said, note that Philly is quite likely to get the SU win here. The 76ers are 23-6 SU at home this season. In other words, the odds are heavily stacked in our favor here for a Sixers win and cover. In terms of technical support for the 76ers, Philly is 35-13 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - when the Sixers are facing them in the 2nd half of the season. Overall the 76ers are a fantastic 72-43 ATS long-term in home games. The Celtics have been slumping and are on a 5-11 ATS run and Boston is in the wrong place at the wrong time. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #555 Monday 8* Charlotte Hornets (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 7:05 ET - It looks easy to take the Pacers on their home floor here and, of course, that is what many are doing as the early line has gone from -4 to as high as a -5.5 as of early game day morning. Of course you know what happens when something looks easy. Everyone sees a Pacers team that has won 5 straight games and has a 37-19 record on the season and is hosting a Hornets teams that has an overall losing record on the year. It was easy to predict what would happen here in terms of line movement and now I am stepping in on the other side of the move and grabbing the extra value. Charlotte is hell-bent on getting revenge here after they got embarrassed by 25 points in their most recent match-up here at Indiana about 3 weeks ago. Charlotte had won and covered each of their two prior meetings with the Pacers before losing the most recent game 120-95. Look for the Hornets to improve to 10-5 ATS (and SU) against Central Division opponents with an upset win here. However, I am happy to grab the available points as added insurance should they fall short of the upset. Indiana has shot the ball extremely well the last 3 games but it is such a high percentage (55%) it is certainly not sustainable and the Pacers have been held to a combined 43.7% from the field the last two times they've hosted the Hornets. Similar result expected here! 8* CHARLOTTE

PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #544 Saturday 8* Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 3:35 ET - How are good are the Sixers now after all the Tobias Harris trade? Truly, they are quite stacked and they proved that in the win over one of the top teams in the league when they won and covered against the Nuggets on Friday. What was most impressive about the win is that the Sixers Big Four of Harris, Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, and Jimmy Butler averaged only 15.8 points in that game. The bench scored 20 points. So what was the key to victory? The Sixers "forgotten" fifth starter as JJ Redick absolutely "went off" for a season high 34 points and was 6 for 7 from three point land. The way that game played out shows just how dangerous this Philly team can be as they truly have weapons at all 5 positions. The fact that Embiid was battling illness and made just 4 of 17 from the field and yet the 76ers still won and covered says a lot. The scary thing for opponents is that they will likely be even better today as this will be their 2nd game together with Harris as a starter and Boban Marjanovic and Mike Scott coming off the bench. Philadelphia is 22-6 SU at home this season. What about the all important cover? Dating back to late November, Philly has 21 wins and they only failed to cover in 3 of the 21 victories. In other words, when the Sixers win, they almost always get the cash. They're catching the Lakers at the perfect time for a big win as they catch LA off the big upset win at Boston. Los Angeles is still just 12-15 SU on the road this season and when they lose they rarely get the cash! The Lakers have managed the cover in only 3 of their 27 losses this season! This game has home blowout written all over it. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Denver Nuggets @ 7:05 ET - Both these teams are looking to respond off back to back losses. Also, both the Nuggets and 76ers have fared well against the opposing conference this season. However, there are two key factors that strongly favor the Sixers here. First off, the huge trade with the Clippers that included Tobias Harris is going to lead to a ton of positive energy for Philly in this one. Secondly, that energy level is going to be boosted even higher here because this game is at Philadelphia with the home court edge being a huge factor in this one. The Nuggets are on an ugly 3-12 ATS run in home games! Conversely, the 76ers are a long-term 70-43 ATS in home games. Also, Philly has not lost 3 straight games this season. In other words, you can fully expect the bounce back here with a home victory. However, what about the all important cover? Philadelphia is 9-2 ATS this season when off a divisional game and they are fired up after the ugly loss to the Raptors. Also, the Sixers are 9-1 SU (and 8-2 ATS!) this season when off a loss by a double digit margin! Long-term the 76ers are 35-17 ATS when off a loss by a margin of 10 or more points! The Nuggets, of course, are also looking to bounce back here but they are an ugly 2-6 ATS this season when off an upset loss as a favorite. Also, Denver is an ugly 3-8 ATS in road games with a posted total of 220 points or more. While all 3 Sixers acquisitions from the Clippers are listed as probable for tonight, the Nuggets Gary Harris has been ruled out for this game and Paul Millsap is questionable with his ankle injury still a factor. The Sixers have held 9 of their last 11 opponents to 47% or less from the field. Denver has allowed their last 4 opponents to average 51.4% from the field! Look for the Nuggets to drop to 3-9 ATS this season when off a game in which they allowed 115 points or more. Home blowout here for Sixers rejuvenated with the Harris acquisition. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #575 Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Clippers (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 7:05 ET - This is one of my typical contrarian plays. The first line that popped up on this game was a -4 early this morning. Keep in mind this is after the public just watched the Pacers destroy the Lakers at home on Tuesday and hand LeBron James the worst loss of his career. Now Indiana is at home again and they're facing the "other" LA team that just traded away Tobias Harris (plus two other role players) to the 76'ers. So, of course, the betting masses are jumping all over the Pacers here and the line got driven up to a -6. I have said this many times before and will say it again here...actually, I will say two things. First off, anything can happen in any game but the key in this business is to always try and have the odds in your favor. That said, my second comment/question as I have stated before is - do you really think the odds makers are stupid? The point being that they are well aware of the impact of the trade. They certainly know Indiana is the home team in this game. Yet they set the line at a 4 with good reason. The betting markets jump all over it and now I am happy to fade the masses and grab the Clippers here. Watch LA "rally the troops" tonight while the Pacers get caught still feeling a little too good about themselves after the blowout of LeBron and Company on Tuesday. Keep in mind, Indiana is playing for the 3rd time in 4 nights. Also, prior to the win over the Lakers, the Pacers were on a 1-5 ATS run. Indiana is also 4-9 ATS this season after scoring 115 points or more. Long-term, the Pacers are an ugly 1-5 ATS (and SU!) when off a game in which they scored 130 points or more. In other words, don't be surprised if the Clips pull off the upset tonight. I am grabbing the "insurance" with having the points however and am happy to have a half dozen points on my side. The Clippers are 4-1 ATS their last 5 road games, on a 16-8 ATS run in February games, and are 20-11 ATS when they enter a game having played each of their 3 prior games on the road. 10* LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #554 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - This is a great spot for the Sixers from a situational standpoint. Philly is off a loss and they have had two days off since that defeat and they have two days off after this game hosting the Raptors. In other words the 76ers are all in on this game and they're hosting a Toronto team that is expected to be short-handed with Kyle Lowry listed as doubtful (back). The home team is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these teams. 4 of those 5 wins have come by a double digit margin and, in fact, the average margin of victory has been 15 points in those 5 wins. Philadelphia got upset as a favorite at Sacramento Saturday but they are 6-2 ATS the last 8 times they've been off a SU loss. The Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The Sixers are 27-16 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games. The 76ers are also 33-12 ATS when, in the 2nd half of a season, they are a facing a team that averages 106 points or more per game. Philly is looking to close the gap with Toronto in the Atlantic Division standings and I expect them to get the job done in a big way with strong situational edges here. Of course Lowry being likely to miss this game makes the spot an even stronger one as you know the former Villanova star would love to be playing in Philly tonight but is unlikely the Raptors are going to risk a lot with Lowry so close to the All Star break. Play PHILADELPHIA

Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #533 Monday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - When you look at Monday's full NBA card you see the following teams favored: Spurs, Rockets, Pacers, Bucks, Nuggets, and Wizards. What sticks out when you look at the list? There is only one team with a losing record that is in that list and it is the team I am fading right here. Now I know the Hawks, of course, are not a great team. However, they are catching about a half-dozen points here against a Wizards team that is only 4-5 SU in their last 9 games and two of those wins came by 4 points or less. In other words, laying 6 points with Washington would result in a 2-7 ATS record their last 9 games. The Hawks are seeking revenge for a double digit loss when these teams most recently met, also in DC, in early January. Atlanta is wrapping up a 7-game road trip and, although they are still not home, the Hawks are happy to be back east again. Atlanta is 3-3 so far on this trip and is hell-bent on finishing with a winning road trip. They are going hard for the 4th win here and I expect them to be the more motivated team here. Interestingly, the Wizards have a game on deck at Milwaukee and that is the same Bucks team that they just got throttled by at home by a double digit margin Saturday. Could the Wizards overlook the Hawks? With Atlanta having a 17-35 record you better believe it! Look for the Hawks to improve to 8-4 ATS this season in road games with a posted total of 230 points or more. Washington is off an ugly loss to Milwaukee but is 2-8 ATS this season when off a game in which they allowed 130 points or more. 10* ATLANTA

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #582 Friday 10* Top Play Charlotte Hornets (-) vs Memphis Grizzlies @ 7:05 ET - The Hornets had a 6-8 January but 10 of their 14 games were on the road! Charlotte is a different team when they are at home. They've won 3 straight home games and the average victory margin in those games was 16 points. Also, the Hornets run at home goes further back than that. They're 7-1 in all home games since mid-December and the 7 wins all came by 9 or more points with an average victory margin of 15.6 per win! While Charlotte, despite a sub-.500 record, is battling for the top spot in the Southeast Division, the Grizzlies are 12 games below .500 and in the basement of the Southwest Division. Memphis also had let it be know that they were willing to take offers on a Conley/Gasol package but they were trying to unload Parsons contract as part of the deal. In any event, the point is that the Grizzlies are in disarray right now while the Hornets are batting hard for the division lead as we head closer to the All-Star break. Memphis has lost 16 of their last 18 games! The Grizzlies are 0-8 in their last 8 road games and they lost those games by an average margin of 13.8 points per defeat! The Hornets are 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 meetings between these teams and the very first line that popped up on this game yesterday was 6.5 but it has dropped to 4.5 and I am grabbing the great value with the small home favorite. 10* CHARLOTTE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #571 Thursday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (+) @ Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - Though this is a back to back spot for the Mavericks, there are a couple of key factors as to why there is plenty of value here. First off, Dallas blew out the Knicks so easily last night that no one played more than 29 minutes. Secondly, that game was preceded by 2 off days. Also, up next for the Mavericks is a stretch that sees them with just 1 game in the first 5 days of February. In other words, Dallas will go all out here and they are a hot 5-0 ATS their last 5 games. Additionally, the Mavericks are actually on a 3-1 ATS run the last 4 times they've played the 2nd game of a back to back and that stretch included games at Portland, at Oklahoma City, at Philadelphia, and versus the Clippers. All 4 of those teams are much tougher opponents than this stumbling and bumbling dysfunctional Pistons squad. Detroit enter this game on a 5-12 SU run. Lets also not forget about the East/West factor. In non-conference games the Pistons are 7-10 SU this season. As for the Mavericks, with last night's blowout win, they are now 13-5 ATS in non-conference games. Also, Dennis Smith Jr had a triple double last night and the Mavs are a perfect 4-0 ATS in the 4 games since he returned to the lineup as he is a key running mate with Luke Doncic and this is a dangerous Dallas team when they are on the floor together. Of course the Pistons would like to get revenge for last week's loss at Dallas but the Mavericks are fighting even harder than Detroit has been when it comes to staying alive in their respective conference playoff races. The Pistons are 4-9 SU when off a double digit loss. The Mavs are 26-13 ATS against teams that allow 106 points or more per game. 10* DALLAS

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #515 Sunday 8* Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 6:05 ET - The Thunder opened up as just a pick'em on their home floor. Of course they quickly became the popular choice of the betting markets on their home floor and the line has already moved their direction as of early Sunday morning. Look for the key to this game to be defense and that is where the Bucks have been the much more impressive team of late. Milwaukee has held 5 of its last 6 opponents to 41.9% or less from the field. Conversely, Oklahoma City is allowing opponents to hit 50.1% from the field their last 8 games! While it is true that the Thunder have won 4 straight games they are also just 5-5 their last 10 games. The Bucks have not only won 6 straight games, they've also gone 17-3 their last 20 games. 8* MILWAUKEE

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #508 Saturday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (-) vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 9:05 ET - It is evident the Sixers are treating this as a "throw away" game. Joel Embiid is being given the night off even though Philadelphia has had two days off leading into this game and also has two days off coming up after this game. Jimmy Butler is dealing with a wrist injury that is likely to keep him out of this game. Also, Wilson Chandler is out with a hamstring injury. Of course he would have loved to go against his former team but that is not going to happen. As for his former team, the Nuggets, they are in a back to back spot here BUT it was a home game for Denver last night versus Phoenix and they rolled to an easy win. That 132 to 95 victory was so easy in fact that the Nuggets were able to rest a ton throughout the game. Speaking of fresh legs for tonight, Nikola Jokic did not play last night due to suspension. He is back tonight and will be particularly tough for the Sixers to handle without Embiid on the floor. This really sets up as an all-out rout in which the Nuggets can name the final margin and certainly I expect that margin to be at least a dozen! As I noted above, Philly is essentially conceding this game. Also, the Nuggets got swept by the 76ers last season so they'll keep their foot on the gas in this one. Denver is 17-8 ATS in home games this season. Philadelphia is 9-17 ATS this season after a game in which they scored 115 points or more. They were very fortunate to beat the Spurs Wednesday and now they get blasted here. 10* DENVER

TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #558 Thursday 8* Washington Wizards (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 8:05 ET - The Warriors have been playing great but this line is up to as high as a 10.5 after opening up at a 9 and Golden State has a much tougher game on deck (at Boston) next. Keep in mind, the Warriors very nearly ended up meeting the Celtics in last year's NBA Finals and Boston is still a threat again this year. Of course Washington is not perceived as a threat to go too far this year but, make no mistake about it, they are playing good basketball right now. That said, the Wizards confidence is growing with each win and that makes for a dangerous dog in a spot like this. That is especially true when a team is catching double digits like the Wizards are here. Note that Washington is 8-2 ATS (and 7-3 SU!) in their last 10 games. The Warriors, as hot as they've been SU, are still on a long-term unimpressive 7-9 ATS run. Golden State enters this game off B2B covers but they are 0-3 ATS the last 3 times they've entered a game on an ATS winning streak of 2 or more games. The Wizards are 5-1 ATS (and SU!) in a home game with a posted total of 230 or more points. 8* WASHINGTON

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #548 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 8:05 ET - The Sixers got blasted at San Antonio on December 17th when the Spurs caught Philly in the 2nd night of a back to back and, of course, away from home. This situation is much different now with the 76ers at home and having not had any back to backs recently plus not having any games on deck again until Saturday when a Western road swing begins. Philadelphia, in fact, will not be at home again for nearly two weeks to tonight they certainly want to "make this one count" and I foresee them getting payback at home. Finally Joel Embiid is not even listed on the injury report plus Jimmy Butler (wrist) was at practice yesterday. Ben Simmons (illness) was not but I don't see him missing this game with two full off days on deck after this. Look for the training staff to have Simmons ready to go here and it should be "all hands on deck" for Philly. Note that 76ers head coach Brett Brown and assistant coach Monty Williams both worked for the Spurs prior to coming to Philadelphia. Brown logged 11 seasons as an assistant coach under Popovich from 2002 to 2013. Williams not only played for the Spurs from 1996 to 1998, he also later served as vice president of basketball operations from 2016 to 2018 in San Antonio. The point is that there is plenty of incentive here for both the players and coaches to respond after that embarrassing loss in mid-December in SA. The Spurs enter this game on a 2-5 SU (and ATS) run. The Sixers are 28-11 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season. The 76ers also are 31-9 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season. 10* PHILADELPHIA

TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #524 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers are off a tough last-second loss to the Thunder on Saturday. Conversely, the Rockets are off an OT win and that was preceded by an OT loss. Look for Philly to take advantage of a Houston team that may not have a lot left in the tank after their big OT win over the Lakers Saturday. Additionally, the Sixers have been playing much better defense of late in comparison with the Rockets. Philadelphia has allowed just 41.5% from the field in their last 4 games. Houston has certainly been at the other end of the spectrum when it comes to defensive play in their last 3 games. The Rockets have allowed each of their last 3 opponents to shoot over 50% from the field! Also, Houston is still without Chris Paul and Clint Capela. As of early this morning Jimmy Butler is listed as questionable for the Sixers but it is with right wrist soreness and I expect he'll be upgraded to probable after this morning's shootaround. Also, 76ers big man Joel Embiid is probable with his continuing back issues. On that note, it has helped Philly that they haven't had any back to back situations recently and won't have one again until mid-February. The healthier team, the more rested team, the home team, and looking for revenge for losing last year's contest here versus the Rockets by a single point...all signs point to Philly getting a solid home win in this one. Houston is 1-6 ATS after a game in which they scored 130 points or more this season. The 76ers are 27-11 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season and also 30-9 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season. All Sixers in this one! 10* PHILADELPHIA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #508 Monday 8* New York Knicks (+) vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 12:35 ET - The Thunder are off a dramatic last second win at Philadelphia Saturday. Also, Oklahoma City has a huge home game on deck tomorrow with division rival Portland. It would be very easy for OKC to look right past a 10-34 Knicks team and that will prove to be a mistake. New York has been playing better and has had 3 full days off since losing by just a single point to the Wizards in London. In fact, this will be just the 2nd game for the Knicks since the 13th. To say the least, they'll have the fresher legs in this match-up. Also, New York is on a 5-2 ATS run as they have been more competitive of late. Keep in mind, Oklahoma City was on a 1-5 SU and ATS run prior to the late win over the 76ers Saturday. Also, the home team is a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in the last 3 meetings between these teams. Grab the big points with the home dog in this one. 8* NEW YORK

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #568 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 3:35 ET - The Sixers Joel Embiid is again on the injury report here as he continues to deal with a sore back. However, he got better in the 2nd half of Philadelphia's dominating win at Indiana on Thursday. The fact is I really don't see Embiid missing much time again until back to back type situations crop up again for Philly and that is not until mid-February. He should be ready to go here and, either way, I like the small number we're getting on the 76ers in this one as they are on their floor and hosting a Thunder team that is stuck in a slump. Oklahoma City has lost 5 of its last 6 games. Conversely, Philadelphia has won 7 of its last 9 games. Also, the Sixers defense has kicked into high gear in its last 3 games. As for OKC, their defense has been atrocious over their last 4 games. Additionally, the Thunder are a long-term 3-10 ATS after a game in which they allowed 130 points or more. This season Oklahoma City is 1-5 ATS after a loss by a double digit margin. The Sixers are a long-term 69-40 ATS in home games. Additionally, when past the midway point of a season and facing a team that allows 106 points or more per game, Philly is 27-10 ATS. When past the midway point of a season and facing a team that scores 106 points or more per game, the 76ers are 30-8 ATS. Look for a home rout in this day game Saturday. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #557 Friday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (+) @ Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - The Heat just got blasted by 38 points on Tuesday at Milwaukee. The Pistons are off a dramatic overtime win versus the Magic on Wednesday. Set ups simply don't get much better than this. Miami is angry and ready to bounce back and all the stuff you're reading about guys saying stuff complaining about playing time will be turned into positive aggressive energy in this game. When you get embarrassed like the Heat players did on Tuesday against the Bucks, you respond! Also, the Pistons are only 2 games over .500 at home this season. It is not a huge edge for Detroit to be at home. Additionally, the Heat have been a better team on the road than at home this season and do have a winning record away from Miami. The Pistons were 3-10 SU in their 13 games prior to the OT win over the Magic. The Heat were 10-4 SU in their 14 games prior to getting blasted by the Bucks. Also, Miami is 6-1 ATS when playing with 2 days rest this season and also a superb 14-6 ATS as an underdog this season. The Pistons are 14-24 ATS (including 5-8 ATS this season) when off a game in which they allowed 115 points or more. The Heat are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 games between these teams and that streak adds another W on Friday! 10* MIAMI 

TNT Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #543 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 7:05 ET - Early movement was on Indiana here as the Pacers (15-5 SU in home games) opened up as only a 2.5 points favorite over a 76ers team that is 10-12 SU in road games this season. It's easy, right folks? Ladies and gentlemen, it is never easy in this business and this is precisely the type of situation I look for. Looks like easy money on the small home favorite an you know what usually happens when something looks easy in this business! The fact is that the 76ers are playing with a ton of confidence right now and are also seeking revenge for a home loss versus the Pacers last month. That game in fact marked the 3rd straight time in this series that the road team has won and covered. Look for that streak to make it 4-0 here! The Sixers are an incredible 29-8 ATS when, in the 2nd half of a season, they're facing a team that averages 106 points or more per game. Philly is also 33-16 ATS when playing with home loss revenge. The Pacers are just 2-5 ATS their last 7 games. Also, Indiana is an ugly 1-4 ATS when off a game in which they scored 130 points or more. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #525 Wednesday 10* Top Play Orlando Magic (+) @ Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - Now that we are past the midway point of the season teams are certainly already beginning to look at the playoff picture. That said, both these teams are just outside the top 8 in the Eastern Conference and this game carries plenty of extra meaning as a result. This situation favors the Magic. We're able to get a handful of points with Orlando and they were at home and have had two days off and are playing with plenty of confidence after beating the Rockets and Celtics in their last two games. Conversely, the Pistons are playing their first game back East after a long road trip out west and Detroit has had only one day off between games. From a technical standpoint, note that the Pistons are a poor 4-9 SU and ATS when off a non-conference game. The Magic are 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS this season when off a game in which they scored 115 points or more. The road dog stays hot in this one and, should they fall short, look for it to be by just a bucket. 10* ORLANDO

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #514 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Minnesota Timberwolves @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers Jimmy Butler is facing his former team and Philly will take advantage of a Timberwolves team that is hurting. Minnesota will be, at the very least, hobbled in this one but could also be short-handed. The problem is a cluster injury situation as both injuries are at the point guard position. Starting PG Jeff Teague and veteran PG Derrick Rose are both listed as questionable for this game with ankle injuries. Keep in mind that the Wolves are an ugly 6-15 SU on the road this season while Philadelphia is a stellar 18-4 SU in home game this season. That said, a Sixers home victory is quite likely but what about the all-important spread factor? It should get there for us! 16 of Minny's last 20 losses have come by a margin of at least a half dozen points! Also, note that Minnesota is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in road games with a posted total of 230 points or more. The 76ers are off a tight win at New York but are 8-2 SU and ATS when off a divisional game this season. Also, the Sixers are a long-term 22-11 SU (and 21-12 ATS) in home games with a posted total of 220 points or more. Look for a home blowout here! 10* PHILADELPHIA

Early Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Monday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (-) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 7:35 ET - The Celtics have a big game at home with Toronto on deck for Wednesday. However, there is no way they're looking past this game. That's because this is the finale of a 3-game road trip that has seen Boston go winless so far. The Celtics are hungry for a win and the Nets should provide the perfect punching bag for Boston to take out their frustrations after back to back losses at Miami and Orlando. The Celtics are 6-2 ATS in road games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The Nets enter this game having won 4 of their last 6 games. However, Brooklyn is 6-12 ATS after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. Also, the Nets are just 4-7 ATS this season when off a road loss and they just got smashed at Toronto Friday. Also, Brooklyn has a long history of struggles versus the Celtics and the Nets are on a long losing streak versus Boston. If Kyrie Irving (questionable) does not play tonight, Terry Dozier will get the start and he has played better as a starter compared to when coming off the bench. Either way the Celtics are a much more stacked team in comparison with the Nets. Brooklyn has lost 13 of 19 games this season when facing a team with a winning record. Celtics respond big off back to back losses here. 10* BOSTON

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #583 Sunday 8* Toronto Raptors (-) @ Washington Wizards @ 1:05 ET - On Thursday I lost my play going again the Wizards with the Bucks for two reasons. One big one was that Giannis Antetokounmpo went from being probable for that game to being out. Tough break for us. But even with him missing the game, Washington only won that game because they made a ridiculous 54.5% of their threes as they knocked down 18 of 33.  The Wizards outscored Milwaukee by 15 points from beyond the arc and that was the difference in the win and in the cover. I'll get payback here because Washington can't keep shooting like this. They have not done this all season long and they now face a Raptors team that is playing what is just one of two games they have between the 8th and 16th. In other words, Toronto will be fully focused here and is also well-rested. That is bad news for a Wizards team that has been playing "over their heads" of late and is set to come back down to earth today. Washington, courtesy of winning 5 of their last 7 games, has the full attention of the Raptors. With Toronto being the best team in the East this season, I expect nothing less than a road rout here. The Raptors are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games against the Wizards. Washington is only 7-12 ATS in games against teams with winning record this season. 8* TORONTO

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #564 Saturday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Clippers (-) vs Detroit Pistons @ 3:35 ET - The Clippers are off a blowout loss at Denver but previously were on an 8-2 ATS run. Now facing the slumping Pistons at home should allow the Clippers to get right back on track. Detroit did win at Los Angeles last season so the Clips also have some extra motivation but truly they don't even need that extra incentive considering they are off the bad loss to the Nuggets. The Pistons enter this game on a 2-9 SU and ATS run and they've allowed each of their last 3 opponents to shoot better than 51% from the field. In fact the composite of those three games was a field goal allowance rate of 54% for Detroit. Of course that kind of defense is not going to get the job done and that is particularly true when the opponent (in this case the Clippers) has held their last two opponents at home to 40% or less from the floor. Detroit is 2-9 ATS when off a non-conference game. Los Angeles is a superb 17-6 ATS this season as a favorite. Also, the Clippers are 11-3 ATS this season in home games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The Clips take advantage of facing a struggling foe and this is something they've been doing all season long. LA is 12-3 SU (and 11-4 ATS) this season in games against teams with a losing record. Another home rout is in the offing here. 10* LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #545 Friday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (-) @ Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - The Bucks are a red hot 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games and they're certainly not going to slow down here. Being on the road is helping Milwaukee to stay focused and up next is a game at Atlanta so certainly there is no lookahead here. The Bucks also have extra motivation because the Wizards won the most recent meeting and that game was on Milwaukee's home floor. In fact, road dominance has been the theme in recent meetings between these foes as the away team is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS and I'll gladly take advantage of the extra line value here since the typical "home factor" is factored into this line even though there has been no home court edge in recent meetings between these teams. The Wizards are off a ridiculously strong shooting performance against the Sixers in their most recent game. Off that huge upset win they'll fall flat here and the Bucks have too much talent and will pull away big as this game goes on and win it by double digits. Milwaukee is 6-2 SU and ATS in Friday night games this season. Washington is 0-9 SU (and 1-8 ATS) in Friday night games this season. Also, the Wizards are 1-5 SU and ATS this season against Central Division opponents. Last but not least, Washington is a poor 1-4 ATS this season when off an upset win as an underdog. 10* MILWAUKEE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Tuesday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ Miami Heat @ 7:35 ET - Last night the Nuggets saw the Rockets hit a ridiculously high percentage of their 3-points as Houston went 22 of 47 from downtown while Denver only made 7 of 29 from beyond the arc. That said, the team with the best record in the Western Conference went down in flames despite outrebounding the Rockets by double digits and despite having 17 more field goal attempts in the game. When you get outscored by 45 from three point land it is hard to win. Suffice to say that is not happening again tonight and I fully expect the Nuggets to bounce right back. The Nuggets were 16-4 SU in their 20 games prior to last night's loss by a dozen points. Denver now visits a Miami team that is only 3-3 SU their last 6 games and has covered only 2 of the 6 games. The Heat play in the weaker Eastern Conference and the particularly weak Southeast Division. Miami is 0-4 SU and ATS in Tuesday games this season. The Nuggets are 4-1 SU in Tuesday games this season and tonight they will improve to 5-2 SU and ATS in games against Southeast Division opponents. 10* DENVER

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #575 Monday 10* Top Play San Antonio Spurs (-) @ Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - The Spurs are surging and have won 4 straight games and 12 of their last 15. In terms of their ATS run it is even better as San Antonio is 13-2 ATS their last 15 games. The Pistons are certainly going the opposite direction as they are 4-13 SU since December 2nd. Also, Detroit enters this game on a 2-7 ATS run. That said, the Pistons aren't just losing they're also failing to cover and there is no questioning the Spurs motivation here. They were held to just 79 points in a loss at Detroit last season. As for the Pistons, they've been having trouble with slow starts in games but then fixed that by surging ahead early and leading Utah by 18 points in their most recent game. However, thanks to turnovers and overall poor play (a recurring them for Detroit), they blew the lead and lost to the Jazz. The fact is that the Pistons are a fragile team right now and facing a Spurs team that is firing on all cylinders certainly isn't going to help matters. Take advantage of the small line here and the lay the short number with SA on the road in this one. San Antonio is 4-1 SU and ATS this season after playing each of their 3 prior games at home. Look for the Spurs to improve to 10-5 ATS this season when off a win by a double digit margin. The Pistons drop to 2-7 ATS on the season when off a non-conference game as Detroit's 10-20 SU run in January games adds another loss to the ledger. Spurs get payback for ugly loss here last year. 10* SAN ANTONIO

NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #571 Sunday 10* Top Play Indiana Pacers (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 7:35 ET - This is a tough scheduling spot for the Raptors. They are off a revenge win at Milwaukee last night and now had to travel back home to face a revenge-minded Pacers team. Not only is Indiana the more rested team, they've won 6 straight games since a 3-point loss at Toronto on December 19th. The Pacers have now lost 4 straight to the Raptors so they are amped up about this revenge opportunity Sunday. Overall it is a 13-2 SU run for Indiana and their two losses came by a total of just 4 points! Great value with the road dog in this spot. Toronto is just 3-7 ATS against Central Division teams this season and 1-4 ATS in Sunday games. Indiana is 6-2 SU and ATS against Atlantic Division teams. Also, the Pacers are a fantastic 23-9 SU and 24-8 ATS in Sunday games. Here they catch the Raptors still celebrating that huge win over the Bucks last night. 10* INDIANA

NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #553 Saturday 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:35 ET - The Raptors embarrassed the hell out of me at San Antonio on Thursday but sometimes in this business one can be dead wrong and that was the case with me when Toronto faced the Spurs. However, the Raptors look like a live dog in this spot. Yes I am aware of the continuing Kyle Lowry injury situation. However, the Raptors have now lost 3 straight against the Bucks, including both meetings this season, and it is absolutely payback time here. Milwaukee is in a back to back spot here and has gone 2-4 ATS in Saturday games this season. Also, the Bucks are a poor 1-5 ATS (and SU!) the last 6 times they were off a game in which they scored 130 or more points. The Raptors are 4-1 SU this season in Saturday games. Toronto is 3-1 SU when off a loss by a double digit margin. Also, the Raptors are 6-3 SU when playing with revenge this season but that includes not faring well against the Bucks this season. In other words, payback time here in a big way and I like having the points in a game the Raptors are bound and determined to win and do have a rest edge. 10* TORONTO

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #531 Friday 10* Top Play Washington Wizards (+) @ Miami Heat @ 8:05 ET - We're getting to the point in the season where you're going to see trends start to reverse. The NBA season is almost at it's mid-point and this is the time of the season where it is a good idea to take a look at teams that have under-achieved at the betting window but that are playing better of late. I especially like to look for those teams when they're facing a team that has over-achieved at the betting window and also when I can have my team as a sizable underdog. That is the case here because, as of 7:30 AM ET, the Wizards are available as high as a +7 in some big shops. Washington is a poor 13-25 ATS on the season but enters this game off back to back wins and covers and there is a different feeling in the Wizards locker room as they head into this match-up against a divisional foe. The Heat are on a ridiculous 15-4 ATS run which you know can't continue. Miami is just not that strong of a team and the absence of Goran Dragic is going to catch up with them. The Heat are 2-2 SU their last 4 games and I expect another SU loss here but, of course, am grabbing the generous points being offered. The Wizards are 5-3 SU and ATS in divisional games this season while Miami is a poor 2-7 SU and ATS in divisional games on the season. Washington is already adjusting to life without John Wall plus remember they've only had Trevor Ariza for the past 8 games and he has already had games with highs of 24 in points, 9 in assists, and 8 in rebounds. He is a key contributor that will be a difference maker tonight. The Wizards are playing scrappy and hungry basketball right now and that is the kind of dog (with plenty of fight) you want on your side. 10* WASHINGTON

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #519 Thursday 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 8:05 ET - I don't foresee Kawhi Leonard and the Raptors being denied here. Yes the Spurs are off a big win over another Atlantic Division opponent, the Celtics, but they hit 14 of 26 three-pointers in that game. That was the difference in the contest and, of course, the odds are very strong that such an insane shooting performance will not be repeated here! Leonard wants this game badly and his teammates know it as this will be his only game in San Antonio this season. He wants to show Coach Gregg Popovich and the Spurs that they made a big mistake in the way they handled him last season. Now it is payback time for Leonard. Note that the Raptors are a respectable 11-7 SU in games against teams with a winning record while San Antonio is only 9-9 SU in games against teams with a winning record this season. Also, when off an upset win as an underdog, the Spurs are just 10-11 SU and ATS. Toronto, though off a win, is not happy with their defensive performance in that game and they've gone 6-2 SU this season when off a game in which they allowed 115 points or more. Also, the Raptors are 14-4 SU when off a game in which they've scored 115 points or more this season. Additionally, Toronto is 21-7 SU this season when facing a team that is allowing 106 points or more per game on the season. The Raptors lost their most recent road game by 29 points. After getting thoroughly embarrassed in Orlando, they've had this road game circled blood red and it is payback time for Leonard and Company! 10* TORONTO

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Wednesday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (+) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - Perfect set-up here. The Mavericks are off an ugly loss by 20 points at Oklahoma City Monday. The Hornets are off a huge win by 25 points versus Orlando Monday. Dallas is a fantastic 36-16 ATS (including 6-1 this season!) when off a loss by a double digit margin. Charlotte is an ugly 4-8 SU (and they're laying points here!) when off a victory by a double digit margin. Also, the road team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these teams and, long-term the Mavs are 10-3 ATS (and SU!) in games played at Charlotte. The Mavericks were on a 5-0 ATS run before the loss to the Thunder. The Hornets were on a 2-7 ATS run before the win over the Magic. Grab the points here but I don't expect to need them. 10* DALLAS

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #563 Monday 10* Top Play Orlando Magic (+) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 6:05 ET - Even though this is a back to back spot for the Magic there are four important things to note here that will render that a mute point. Yesterday's game was a day game so that helps in terms of travel and rest. Flight time from Orlando to Charlotte is less than two hours so there was not significant travel involved. The Magic are much improved on defense this season and are entering this game off back to back wins and looking to close 2018 strong. Orlando has NOT forgotten about one of their most embarrassing losses of the season and that 32 point beatdown happened at HOME early this season which was the most recent time the Magic faced the Hornets. This is Orlando's first opportunity at revenge since that game and they'll make the most of it. The Magic are 6-3 ATS when playing with home loss revenge. Orlando is 10-4 ATS in road games. Charlotte is actually 6-11 ATS in games against teams with a losing record this season. Also, the Hornets enter this game on an overall 4-10 ATS run their last 14 games. Look for the Magic to improve to 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games and I would not be surprised if their SU winning streak reaches 3 games as they are playing with a lot of confidence right now after home wins versus Toronto and Detroit. Looking for the upset but will gladly grab the big points as added insurance in this one. 10* ORLANDO

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #511 Friday 10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets (+) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - Common thinking will be to back Charlotte in this chance at revenge for the loss at Brooklyn on Wednesday. As long-time followers know, my way of thinking is anything but common. Known for being contrarian, I am again going to contrary to the masses here and backing the Nets but is certainly not without reason. The Hornets are on a 3-9 ATS run their last dozen games. Brooklyn is on a 9-1 SU run their last 10 games. Charlotte actually has a losing SU record this season when playing with revenge and the past two seasons went a combined 34-56 SU when playing with revenge. The fact is that revenge is one of the most over-played angles in sports betting and, in this case, I am going against the grain and backing the Nets on the road. Brooklyn is a red hot team and is on a 29-14 ATS run long-term against Central Division opponents. Charlotte has gone cold and is on a 12-33 ATS run long-term versus Atlantic Division opponents. The Hornets are also just 5-10 ATS when playing against teams with a losing record this season. The Nets are 13-7 ATS in games with a posted total of 220 points or more. 10* BROOKLYN

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NBA Game #583 Wednesday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 8:35 ET - Of course it looks enticing to play the small home favorite in a match-up like this but I am happy to back the road dog here. Both the Nuggets and Spurs are off losses but Denver is off their worst loss of the season and allowed a season-high in points. Note that they lost a key player to ejection midway in the 3rd quarter of that game and the Nuggets just didn't come ready to play that night. They paid for it and got dominated in the paint on both sides of the floor. Denver will undoubtedly be ready to make up for that effort here. The Nuggets entered that loss to the Clippers having won 11 of their last 13 games both SU and ATS! Also, Denver won the last two meetings with the Spurs last season and the prior loss was just a 2-point defeat at San Antonio. In other words, the 3 points could come in handy here but I am certainly making this play expecting an outright road upset. The Nuggets are 12-5 SU this season against teams with a winning record while the Spurs are just 6-8 SU this season against teams with a winning record. Also, Denver is a long-term 21-10 ATS, including 4-0 ATS the past two seasons, when they are off a game in which they allowed 130 points or more. The Nuggets have proven, as shown above, to be the better team in games against winning teams this season. Look for that trend to continue here. 10* DENVER

Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #561 Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 5:35 ET - The Celtics are off a win versus Charlotte but previously Boston lost three straight! Also this included back to back losses at home in which the Celtics were completely dominated on the boards by both the Suns and the Bucks. With the rejuvenated and revenge-minded Sixers also fully capable of dominating the rebound department, Boston is likely to again be in trouble here. The Sixers have been on a surge ever since the trade for Jimmy Butler. The 76ers enter this game having won 13 of their last 18 games. Philly is a long-term 25-12 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games and also 7-1 ATS when a divisional game. Also, the Sixers are 6-3 ATS (including 7-2 SU) when playing with revenge this season! This one has the makings of an upset with the strong motivation factor for Philly (0-1 versus Boston this season after being knocked out of playoffs by Celtics last season). With the Celtics recent slump and Boston a long-term 7-13 ATS in home games with a posted total of 220 points or more, I am grabbing the points with the underdog Sixers in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA

NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #526 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Toronto Raptors @ 7:35 ET - The Raptors Kyle Lowry is expected to miss this game and Toronto is in a back to back spot after the win versus Cleveland last night. They've gone 2-2 without Lowry in these 4 games he has missed but they lost both road games! Also, the Raptors are expected to be without Kawhi Leonard tonight since it is a back to back spot and he played 37 minutes last night. Surprisingly Toronto has had success in most of the games Leonard has missed this season but that is unlikely to be the case here. The 76ers are playing this game with double revenge as they have lost both games to the Raptors this season. Those losses came north of the border though and now the Sixers finally get their chance at home. Of course Philly is laying a small number here and that is certainly noteworthy as they are 15-3 SU in home games this season. Also, note that Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS (and SU) this season when off a divisional game. Prior to last night's big win over Cleveland, the Raptors were on a 3-8 ATS slide. Look for those struggles for Toronto at the betting window to resume as the 76ers get payback tonight. 10* PHILADELPHIA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Friday 10* Top Play Detroit Pistons (+) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - Not only has Detroit lost both match-ups with Charlotte this season, the Pistons also lost their final two match-up with the Hornets last season. Suffice to say, incentive is high for the road dog in this one. The Pistons lost at Charlotte by a single point last week Wednesday and it was on a last second shot too so the memory is certainly fresh. Look for Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond to dominate in the paint in this one for a very hungry Detroit team. The Pistons are off an OT win at Minnesota Wednesday and they are 7-2 SU this season when off a game in which they scored 115 points or more. The Pistons shot the ball very well against the Timberwolves. Detroit is also 8-4 ATS this season in road games! The Hornets are wrapping up a 10-game homestand and are just 8-17 SU their last 25 when they enter a game having played each of their 3 prior games at home. Also, Charlotte is on a 2-7 ATS run and are off a double digit win over the Cavaliers in their most recent game. That is noteworthy here as the Hornets are just 3-6 SU this season when off a win by 10 or more points. Give me the underdog here as they actually have a great shot at the outright upset per the above and I'll gladly take the generous points being offered. 10* DETROIT

TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #578 Thursday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (+) vs Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - Huge rest edge for the Heat here as they'll be playing for the first time since Sunday while the Rockets were busy going hard last night to set the NBA record (26) for three pointers last night. Houston now will be on the road and playing for the 3rd tine in 4 days while Miami is playing their 1st game in 4 days. Also, the Heat have revenge here after they got swept by the Rockets last season. Keep in mind Miami did sweep Houston the prior season but now, after the Rockets got their revenge last season, it is the Heat ready to avenge defeat this time around. Also note that Houston is an ugly 2-7 ATS this season when off a non-conference game and also 2-8 ATS when off a game in which they scored 115 points or more. As for the Heat, they are a 9-3 ATS in non-conference games this season including a perfect 4-0 ATS against Southwest Division opponents. Also, Miami has held their last two opponents to just 41.5% from the field. Conversely, the Rockets have allowed 53.3% or more from the field in 3 of their last 4 games. Look for the Heat to hold the edge defensively tonight and that will be the difference as Houston's shooters cool off on the road. The Rockets, in fact, are just 3-6 SU and ATS in their last 9 road games. More of the same here. 10* MIAMI

PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #554 Wednesday 8* Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs New York Knicks @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers are off their worst loss in the Jimmy Butler era. Philly lost by 27 points at San Antonio on Monday and this was despite taking 11 more shots from the field than the Spurs did! As you can see from that stat, SA was simply on fire in that game while the Sixers were cold as ice. That sets this one up well as the Knicks will prove to be the perfect punching bag for Philly. The 76ers also won't take their foot off the gas here as they are angry and they don't play again until Saturday. That means the Sixers will go the full 48 minutes here and that is bad news for a New York team that lost by 26 in the first match-up between these teams this season and that was only 3 weeks ago. The Knicks are having a horrible season and have lost 7 of their last 8 games. The average margin of loss in New York's last 8 games is 14 points and that included ugly losses to teams not nearly as strong as the Sixers. In other words, a home blowout is on tap tonight! The Knicks are 4-8 ATS this season when off a loss by a double digit margin. The Sixers are a perfect 6-0 SU (and solid 5-1 ATS!) this season when off a loss by 10 or more points. In other words, the 76ers respond in a huge way Wednesday night. 8* PHILADELPHIA

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #517 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 3:35 ET - Situations just don't get much better than this and, yes, I am aware of Jimmy Butler being questionable for this game with a groin injury. The 76ers were a perfect 10-0 at home this season when the Cavaliers visited Philadelphia last month and put an end to that perfection with a dominating road win. The 76ers haven't forgotten that and it is time for payback here. With Philly off rare back to back losses, the hunger factor is even higher for the revenge-minded Sixers here. The last 7 times that the 76ers have been off a loss they've gone 5-2 ATS. Look for a huge road win and cover here. The Cavaliers are off a double digit loss to the Bucks but don't look for a bounce back here! Cleveland is actually an ugly 20-38 ATS when off a loss by a margin of 10 or more points. The Sixers are a long-term 31-16 ATS (including 4-1 ATS this season) when off a loss by a margin of 10 or more points. The 76ers are also 32-16 ATS when playing with home loss revenge. 10* PHILADELPHIA