Poinsettia Bowl Wednesday - CFB Game #218 - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Wyoming Cowboys (+) vs Brigham Young Cougars @ 9 ET - BYU has been pounded up to being a double digit favorite in this game and that is offering exceptional line value here. The Cougars have lost 3 straight bowl games and are playing in a bowl game for the 12th straight season. As for the Cowboys, the situation is much different and that has them much hungrier than Brigham Young for this game. Wyoming is playing in just their 3rd bowl game in the last 22 years! It is the Cowboys first bowl invite since 2011 and that has the entire program fired up about this opportunity. Wyoming head coach Bohl ended up being named the Mountain West coach of the year. He has done a fantastic job this season and though the bowl history is minimal for the Cowboys, head coach Bohl has gone 14-1 in FCS playoff games and led the way to 3 national titles at the FCS level. The man can coach and, keep in mind, of BYU's 8 victories on the year, only 1 came against a team that ended up having a winning record on the season. That was Toledo and the Rockets already lost their bowl game (to Appalachian State!) so that further adds fuel to the fire here in terms of what strong program has BYU actually beaten this season? The Cowboys have gone 6-1 ATS as an underdog this season and, though the Cougars have the better D in this match-up, Wyoming has the edge on offense and that will keep them in this game throughout and it is quite possible that the Cowboys even spring the upset here. That 6-1 ATS mark as a dog included 5 outright upset wins. Dangerous dog here going against a BYU team that is on a 1-5 ATS run when playing with extra rest and the Cougars have not played since November 26th while the Cowboys were in action on December 3rd. Too many points here. 10* WYOMING

Boca Raton Bowl - CFB Game #215 Tuesday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Memphis Tigers (+) vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers @ FAU Stadium in Boca Raton, Florida @ 7 ET - Waiting has paid off here as a line that was as low as a 3.5 when the bowl lines came out has now moved to as high as a 7 in many spots as of early morning on gameday. That makes it "go time" with the underdog here as I'll gladly take advantage of the generous points being offered. Both of these teams have dynamic offenses (especially through the air) so the key comes down to the better pass defense. Memphis has the better secondary and their pass defense has been solid with a 17-15 ratio this season. Additionally, the Tigers have the edges at head coach as Memphis will be going with their defensive coordinator (Holt) as the interim head coach here since Brohm was hired by Purdue. We already saw what happened in this bowl season with another team that was going through a head coaching transition (Houston going with Applewhite) and that resulted in the biggest blowout loss on the opening Saturday of bowl season. The Cougars went off the board as a 5 point favorite there but still got pummeled by San Diego State. I am not saying that this one will play out exactly the same but the point is that there is certainly value with the underdog here catching a full 7 points. This is especially true when you consider that is an additional motivating factor for Memphis. The Tigers come from the bigger conference and they are well aware that they are sizable dogs against "only" a CUSA team. That is additional motivation and certainly the Tigers played the tougher strength of schedule this year too. All signs point to the stronger team from the stronger conference (AAC) in this one. 10* Top Play MEMPHIS

Opening Day Top Play - CFB Game #211 Saturday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (-) vs UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns in the New Orleans Bowl in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome @ 9 ET - In looking at all the Saturday bowl match-ups this is the one that is the biggest mismatch in terms of ATS records this season. That disparity helps to give line value here because Southern Miss only went 3-9 ATS this season while Louisiana went 8-4 ATS on the season. The result is extra line value here toward the Golden Eagles and, yes, I am of course well aware of the fact that there has already been significant upward movement on the Eagles in this match-up but there is still great value here. Southern Mississippi's numbers are a bit skewed this season due to some injury issues with star senior QB Nick Mullens. When he is on the field, this is simply a different team and the Golden Eagles rolled Louisiana Tech in their final regular season game to become bowl eligible. Mullens had a huge game against the Bulldogs and I expect nothing less in this bowl game from the senior QB as he is a true "gamer". Mullens is a leader and he'll go hard here to get this bowl win as a senior. Southern Miss lost the two games he didn't play in and they also had a loss to LSU but that is a tough SEC team of course. The point is that they went 6-3 in the other 9 games that Mullens started and they now take on a rather weak Sun Belt Conference team. I know UL-Lafayette won big over rival UL-Monroe in their season finale to become bowl eligible but the Ragin' Cajuns were actually quite fortunate that game was played in a rainstorm. It benefited Louisiana in the form of them being the beneficiary of 5 UL-Monroe turnovers. However, there certainly won't be any rainstorm in this one as it is being played in a dome and I don't seee anything stopping Mullens and a strong Southern Miss offense in this one. I am aware of the Ragin' Cajuns solid bowl history but the Golden Eagles lost their bowl game last season and Mullens and company want to make up for that in a big way this season. Also, Louisiana has gone 0-2 ATS in recent seasons (and 5-15 SU) long-term in their match-ups with Conference USA opponents. The Golden Eagles are the stronger team with the better offense. Mullens has a 60-22 TD-INT ratio in his junior and senior year combined. The Ragin' Cajuns Anthony Jennings has thrown 12 picks against just 11 TDs this season! 10* Top Play SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI GOLDEN EAGLES Saturday night

Cure Bowl ATS Crusher - CFB Game #207 Saturday - Rickenbach 8* Arkansas State Red Wolves (+) vs Central Florida Knights in the Cure Bowl @ Citrus Bowl in Orlando, Florida @ 5:30 ET - Certainly the location of this game favors the Knights as this is essentially a home game for Central Florida. However, the Knights faded some as the season went on and I believe they're just "happy to be here" considering they went 0-12 last season! Additionally, UCF could be a little "complacent" here considering that they didn't even have to travel for what is now their 4th bowl in the last 5 years. For the Red Wolves, they certainly are fired up about this opportunity as, even though this is their 6th straight bowl game, head coach Anderson has gone 0-2 SU and ATS in his two appearances and each loss came by a 19 point margin. He'll have his team ready and, unlike the Knights, the Red Wolves were getting stronger as the season went on. In fact, Arkansas State had a horrible start to the season but then rattled off 7 of 8 wins (6-2 ATS) in 8 games against conference opponents. That was good enough for a share of the Sun Belt Conference title and they even dismantled a ranked SBC foe, Troy, 35-3 as a dog of more than a TD. In this bowl match-up the Red Wolves are again under-valued as they are catching nearly a full TD and Arkansas State is 14-5 SU (and 13-6 ATS) when they enter a game off of a win against a conference rival. Central Florida is 0-3 SU and ATS when they enter a match-up with two or more weeks of rest between games. The Knights only averaged 88 rushing yards per game this season while the Red Wolves had a balanced attack with 158 rushing yards and 184 passing yards per game. Central Florida enters this game off of back to back losses to finish the season while the Red Wolves responded to the ending of a 6 game winning streak by blowing out Texas State in the 2nd half of their season finale and that game was on the road. Look for another key in this game to be turnovers. Looking at what each team did over its last 5 games, the Red Wolves turned the ball over just 3 times while the Knights turned it over 11 times. A "running dog" that takes care of the ball is a "dangerous dog" and I'll grab the points in this one. 8* ARKANSAS STATE early Saturday evening

New Mexico Bowl ATS Smash - CFB Game #202 Saturday - Rickenbach 8* New Mexico Lobos (-) vs UTSA Roadrunners @ 2 ET - Texas-San Antonio (preferably referred to as UTSA) is definitely a "feel good story" for head coach Frank Wilson (in his first season) and the Roadrunners (in their first bowl game in their short history as a football program). However, the situation here couldn't be much tougher. Not only are they having to face New Mexico in Albuquerque but the weather conditions are going to be very favorable for the Lobos. Very gusty winds at 25-35 MPH with gusts over 40 MPH possible is what is in the forecast for the new Mexico Bowl. This favors the Lobos in a huge way because they are ground-oriented offense and the passing game will simply be challenging in these weather conditions Saturday afternoon. New Mexico is averaging 310 rushing yards per game this season compared to just 133 rushing yards per game for the Roadrunners. The unique triple option offense of the Lobos is likely to keep the Runners defense off-balance throughout this game and I expect New Mexico to run away with it. Off a bowl loss last year, the Lobos will certainly be focused this year and the last time they were in a bowl ('07) after the losing the prior year ('06), they won the game by a final score of 23 to zip! I am not necessarily expecting that type of domination here but I am expecting a win by double digits and the ground game is going to be the key in this game. As a road dog of 7.5 to 10 points UTSA is 1-4 SU and ATS the past three seasons combined. The Lobos have a long-term mark of 23-14 ATS when playing with two or more weeks of rest between games. 8* NEW MEXICO LOBOS Saturday

Army/Navy Top Play - Rickenbach CFB Game #104 Saturday - 10* Top Play Navy Midshipmen (-) vs Army Black Knights @ Baltimore, Maryland @ 3 ET - I am well aware of the injury issues that Navy just suffered with, amazingly, both Will Worth and Toneo Gulley getting hurt on the same play in the AAC Championship Game against Temple. However, this is still the biggest game of the season for the Midshipmen. In fact, it means so much that Worth even postponed surgery on the broken foot he suffered so that he could be more available to provide as much help as possible to the sophomore QB who will now be stepping in and taking his place for this game. After getting rolled by the Owls last week, Navy is extra fired up for this season's contest. Also, even though they had not rest between games, note that the Midshipmen have been preparing for Army all season long. Their head coach said as much and the team has indeed devoted some time to preparing for the Black Knights each and every week through the season. Also, Army has had so much time off that they actually could be rusty here. Their last game was 3 weeks ago and Army didn't even get tested in that one because it was against Morgan State. Prior to that, the Black Knights allowed 75 points in their two prior games. Note that Army is an ugly 14-35 ATS when they enter a game off of 2 or more weeks of rest. Navy is 103-68 ATS when playing with 6 days or less of rest between games. In other words, much has been made of the rest factor favoring the Black Knights here but there is more than meets the eye here. The Midshipmen step right into this one "game ready" while Army could be rusty. Navy has played a much tougher schedule than Army this season and that is not being factored into this line as much as it should be. The line could easily be 17 if the injuries were not a factor. Even with those the line could be 10 points and that is what this game opened up at in a lot of spots and the line has now moved all the way down to below a TD which is offering great line value considering Navy's long history of winning in recent meetings in this annual match-up. Don't be fooled by Army's defensive stats. That was helped by playing a weak schedule. They will struggle to stop the Midshipmen triple option attack in this one. Keep in mind that Navy had scored 42 points or more in 6 of their last 7 games before losing ugly to the Owls last weekend. Look for the Midshipmen to bounce right back here and put up big points in their biggest game of the season. Army won't be able to keep up. The Black Knights had been held to 21 points in 6 of their last 7 games before blowing away Morgan State. 10* Top Play NAVY MIDSHIPMEN minus the points Saturday

Big Ten Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Game #333 Saturday - 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions (+) vs Wisconsin Badgers in Big Ten Championship Game @ Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN @ 8 ET - Amazingly this is already the 4th time the Badgers have been in the Big Ten Championship Game and this is only the 6th such game as these started in 2011. The Nittany Lions are full of hunger as this is their first appearance ever in this game. The favorite has only gone 1-4 ATS in these games and I like the value here with the Nittany Lions (the better team in my opinion) getting a full field goal on a neutral field. Yes the Badgers have the better defense but Penn State certainly has the better offense and they are on fire and full of momentum right now. PSU has won 8 straight games and their offense has averaged 46.4 points per game in their last 5 games. The Badgers have won 6 straight games but their offense has been held to 23 points or less in 7 of their 12 games this season. The Nittany Lions defense has held 3 of their last 4 opponents to 14 points or less - an average of 8.7 points per game in those 3 games. The big win over Ohio State earlier this season gives Penn State the confidence to take this game over the Badgers. Penn State's rushing defense has been very strong the last 5 games with an average of only 68.8 yards allowed per game! That should help force the Badgers to the air in this one and Wiscy's passing attack has averaged only 115.4 passing yards per game their last 5 games. Look for the Lions to win this one through the air as that aspect of the PSU offense has gotten stronger as the season has gone on. The Nittany Lions are averaging 284.4 passing yards per game their last 5 games. 10* Top Play PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS

Situational Smash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Game #320 Saturday - 8* Texas State Bobcats (+) vs Arkansas State Red Wolves @ 7:30 ET - Nothing I can say about Texas State is going to help you to get excited about making a wager on a team that is 2-9 this season and has gone only 4-7 ATS. However, what I will tell you is that is there are some key situational edges working in their favor here. Of course it is the final home game of the careers for a number of Bobcats seniors including their QB. They are undoubtedly going to bring a strong effort tonight as they look to go out a winner. Of course the chances of an upset win are slim as you can tell by the number posted on this game but Texas State is getting some help from mother nature today. I reside in the south central Texas area and it has been raining heavily since yesterday and this is expected to be an all-weekend event with the rain. This weather is very likely to limit the Arkansas State offense and bad weather almost always favors a big underdog who is just trying to "hang around" in a game and I expect that to be the case here with the Bobcats. They are catching the Red Wolves in a flat spot. While it is true that Arkansas State can still get a share of the SBC Title with a win here, they would have had a shot at the outright conference title if they had just won last week at UL-Lafayette. That loss to the Ragin' Cajuns really let the air out of the sails of Arky State and they will likely be a little flat here. It's hard to get up for a game after the disappointment of blowing your shot at an outright title. Also, the home team has won and covered all 3 all-time meetings between these schools. The points are huge here when you consider that the Red Wolves are only averaging 26.2 points per game this season. This is not an offensive juggernaut, this is not good weather, and this is not a good situation for Arkansas State after last week's disappointment. Add it all up and you have the perfect spot (literally) for the ugly dog to get the job done here as the home team improves to 4-0 ATS all-time in this series. 8* TEXAS STATE Saturday evening

Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Game #307 Saturday - 8* Baylor Bears (+) @ West Virginia Mountaineers @ 3:30 ET - This is simply a case of a revenging team getting over-valued. This line was closer to just two touchdowns earlier this week but has now climbed up above the 17 mark as everyone looks for West Virginia to get revenge in a big way for last season's 62-38 loss at Baylor. While I certainly do expect the Mountaineers to get their revenge, I expect a strong effort from the Bears here as they look to finish the regular season on the right foot under interim head coach Jim Grobe who is a West Virginia native. He'll have his team ready to go here and what is being under-valued about Baylor is the fact that QB Zach Smith is off of a big game last week as he threw for nearly 400 yards with 3 TDs against just 1 pick. The West Virginia defense has honestly been atrocious in recent games. Looking at their last 4 games, the Mountaineers have given up an average of 506 yards per game even though two of those games were against the two worst offenses in the Big 12: Kansas and Iowa State. The point is that even if West Virginia does pile up big points in this game, their defense has shown no signs that would indicate that they are going to shut down a Bears offense that, even with Smith at QB, is plenty capable of moving the ball very well. It's been an ugly season for Baylor but the Bears are 8-3 SU and ATS in December games and Grobe and Company want this game badly. The Mountaineers are on a 6-11 ATS run in December games and also 6-11 ATS their last 17 games against teams with a winning record. 8* BAYLOR BEARS Saturday afternoon

PAC-12 Championship Best Bet - Rickenbach CFB Game #305 Friday - 10* Top Play Colorado Buffaloes (+) vs Washington Huskies @ Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, CA @ 9 ET - It is has been an amazing season for both of these teams but, since it wasn't expected for the Buffaloes and was expected for the Huskies, Colorado is clearly being under-rated in this match-up with Washington for the PAC-12 Championship. The Buffaloes are a TD+ underdog even though these teams are statistically very nearly equal and even though Colorado played arguably the tougher schedule. As the favorite, all the pressure is on the Huskies in this one and I expect the Buffaloes to be the more relaxed team and the result will be Colorado playing their "A game" in this one which certainly should be enough for at least the cover. Much has changed since the last time these two teams met but it is still noteworthy that the 15 point margin of victory for Washington also is help influencing market perception for this one and, keep in mind, the Huskies were actually outgained by the Buffaloes in that game! Washington is off of a big blowout win over rival Washington State in the battle for the Apple Cup last week. However, prior to that win the Huskies had failed to cover 6 of their last 9. The Buffaloes are off of a non-covering win versus Utah but previously had cover 10 of 11 games on the season. Also, Colorado is a perfect 4-0 ATS this season as an underdog. Last but certainly not least, here is another stat you will like. This line is currently as high as an 8 in some spots and when the Huskies are favored by 8 points or more against a team with a winning record after Game 5 of a season, Washington has gone 0-12 ATS (including 0-2 ATS this season). The Huskies already suffered an ATS loss in this role against Utah this season and they also suffered a SU and ATS loss in this role against USC as well. They are in for a dogfight here with a fired up Buffaloes team that is a very confident punch and would love nothing more than to spoil any playoff hopes the Huskies had. 10* COLORADO BUFFALOES plus the big points on Friday night

#1 CFB SIDE - Rickenbach CFB Game #193 Saturday - 10* Top Play Utah Utes (+) @ Colorado Buffaloes @ 7:30 ET - The Utes are off of a home upset loss versus Oregon but clearly got caught looking ahead to this game. Conversely, Colorado is actually off of a big win over Washington State last week as they continue to be a 'covering machine' this season. The Buffaloes also have been a 'covering machine' in this series as they are 5-0 ATS against the Utes. However, there are two keys with where the value lies in this match-up. All 5 of the meetings have been decided by 7 points or less AND Utah has been the straight-up winner in 4 of the 5 meetings. With that said, there is clearly value with the Utes as a double digit dog in this match-up. Colorado must win this game to secure a spot in the PAC-12 Championship game while the Utes clearly would love nothing more than to play the role of spoiler here. Utah is 8-3 ATS the past three seasons (including 2-0 ATS this season) as an underdog. Also, looking at long-term numbers, the Utes are an incredible 9-2 ATS when they are a road dog of 7.5 to 10 points! While it has been an incredible season for the Buffaloes, only 4 of their last 9 games have been wins by more than 10 points. Hence, you can see the value here with the double digit dog Utes whom, statistically, are certainly not far behind the Buffs. Also, Colorado is still only 5-13 ATS their last 18 games as a favorite against PAC-12 foes. The Utes are 6-0, 100% PERFECT ATS when they are off of a SU loss which was also an ATS loss and now facing a team that is off of a SU win that was also an ATS win. Look for that system to go to 7-0 in what is going to be a fiercely contested PAC-12 battle. 10* Top Play UTAH UTES plus the BIG points on Saturday evening

Underdog Shocker - Rickenbach CFB Game #179 Saturday - 8* Nevada Wolf Pack (+) @ UNLV Rebels @ 4 ET - The Rebels are down three starting wide receivers as they lost Devonte Boyd a few weeks ago. Of course that has made UNLV rather one-dimensional as they have to run the ball. Granted, that looks like a huge edge in this match-up because Nevada struggles to stop the run but, keep in mind, this is a big rivalry game and the Wolf Pack are likely to bring their best defensive effort of the season. That said, if Nevada is able to focus on the run that could make this a tough spot for the Rebels to get any kind of margin in this game. Another factor is that UNLV also struggles against the run and Nevada got their run game going with over 200 yards last week. The road team has won and covered each of the last 3 meetings in this rivalry series and that makes this a revenge spot for the Wolf Pack who lost at home to UNLV last year. Nevada has won 9 of the 11 meetings and this line is truly inflated on the Rebels as it has gone from less than a touchdown to very nearly a double digit spread as of early game day morning. I'll grab the corresponding line value with the revenging dog here. Nevada is on a 7-3 ATS run in November games. The Rebels have a long-term reputation for struggling as a favorite - 24-40 ATS! The Wolf Pack are off of an outright upset win as a TD underdog versus Utah State last week and the Pack has gone 5-0 ATS when they are on the road off of a SU win as an underdog. The Rebels are 0-5 SU the last 5 times they have hosted the Wolf Pack and, of course, if they don't win this game they don't cover and that means we're testing systems that are a combined 10-0, 100% ATS for this rivalry match-up. 8* NEVADA WOLF PACK plus the big points Saturday afternoon 

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #155 Saturday - 8* Illinois Illini (+) @ Northwestern Wildcats @ Noon ET - Of course the 2-9 Illini are not a very good football team. However, here you have a Wildcats team laying 17 points even though they are only averaging 24 points per game on the season. Also, Northwestern has been held to 24 points or less in 8 of their 12 games this season. While it is true that the Wildcats need this win for bowl eligibility, it is also true that Illinois is seeking revenge for a 24-14 loss to Northwestern last season. The Illini averaged 26 points per game in their first 6 games this season but they've faced 5 straight tough defenses since then and have struggled. Look for Illinois to now take advantage of facing a Wildcats defense that has shown some holes at times this season and only ranks 60th (out of 128) in the nation for yards allowed per game. This game will be much closer than many are expecting as the Illini give it their all in a game they know will be their season finale. Certainly Illinois would love nothing more than to also make sure it's rival Northwestern's season finale as well as the Illini could play spoiler and end the Wildcats bowl hopes. Illinois is 7-3 ATS when they enter a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games. Northwestern is 1-3 ATS as a favorite in a range of 10.5 to 21 points. The Wildcats are also 2-6 ATS when off of an outright loss as a favorite and 2-14 ATS when they are a double digit home favorite and facing a team that is off of a SU loss by double digits. The above systems combine for a powerful 30-8 (79%) ATS mark which I'll gladly put to the test here. 8* ILLINOIS ILLINI plus the BIG points early at Noon ET Saturday

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #121 Friday - 8* Nebraska Cornhuskers (+) @ Iowa Hawkeyes @ 3:30 ET - Though it would take a big upset (Minnesota over Wisconsin Saturday), the fact is that the Cornhuskers are still alive for having a shot at the Big Ten title game. That said, look for another big effort from the Huskers here after they dominated Minnesota last week. This week Nebraska gets a boost with the expected return of QB Tommy Armstrong too. We are getting line value here because of Iowa's win over Michigan a few weeks back. If you look at the rest of the Hawkeyes results this season they only went 2-3 in their other 5 home games. Overall, Iowa doesn't have any other wins against quality opponents and they even lost to North Dakota State and Northwestern this season. Now the Hawkeyes face a revenge-minded Nebraska team that has played a tougher schedule than Iowa has this season. The Huskers are looking to avenge last season's 28-20 home loss to the Hawkeyes. Iowa is off of back to back strong efforts on defense but prior to that they had allowed 508.7 yards per game in their 3 prior games! The D will be a difference-maker here because Nebraska has given up 337 yards or less in 6 of their last 7 games! The Cornhuskers are on an 8-3 ATS run as an underdog while Iowa is on a 7-13 ATS run in home games. The Big Red get their revenge here and stay alive for a shot at the Big Ten West division. 8* NEBRASKA plus the points Friday

Turkey Day CFB Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #113 Thursday - 8* LSU Tigers (-) @ Texas A & M Aggies @ 7:30 ET - The Aggies want this game badly as the Tigers have held the upper hand in this series ever since Texas A & M entered the SEC. However, this is not a good spot for the Aggies to finally "break through" against the Tigers because LSU is fired up off of a loss and interim head coach Orgeron has his team ready to go. The Tigers are fired up after the loss to Florida last week. Against the Gators, LSU was simply done in by a couple of turnovers because they did actually outgain Florida by over 150 yards in that game! The Tigers have a fantastic defense and that gives them a huge edge over the Aggies who are not the same team without Trevor Knight at QB. Now word is that Knight may start Thursday but how much of that is due to him being ready and how much is due to Jake Hubenak also injuring his shoulder in his most recent game? Keep that in mind because the Aggies are going up against a tremendous defense that will inflict some big hits in this game! Even though RB Leonard Fournette is out for LSU in this one, the Tigers still have plenty of firepower to get the job done against A & M in this one. The Tigers are off of their 4th loss of the season. After their first three they responded with a win all 3 times going 3-0 and winning the games by at least 21 points all 3 times. The Aggies are in an 0-7 ATS tailspin and the Tigers are on a 7-3 ATS run as a favorite in a range of 3.5 to 10 points. Texas A & M is also on a 4-12 ATS run in their games against teams with a winning record. LSU is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 in this series and the Aggies come in on that overall 0-7 ATS run so we have a 12-0 ATS advantage for the Tigers in this one! In each of the last 5 meetings with A & M, the Tigers were coming in off of an ATS loss and they have responded all 5 times with a win and cover. Thes situation is again set up perfectly here in this season's match-up. 8* LSU

Tuesday Rivalry Rout - Rickenbach CFB Game #104 Tuesday - 8* Miami, Ohio Redhawks (-) vs Ball State Cardinals @ 7 ET - Even though Ball State plays in the West Division of the MAC and Miami, Ohio is in the East Division, this is still a rivalry as these universities are separated by only 70 miles. In fact, for next season, these two rivals will resume playing every year under the MAC’s new “rivalry status” designation. This new ruling allows teams from the East to play a team from the West annually as rivals and certainly this is good to see as this rivalry gets going again. The Redhawks have revenge on their minds in this one as the most recent meeting saw them lose badly at Ball State in 2013 by a final score of 55-14. Revenge is certainly not the only motivating factor here either as Miami has their eyes on securing their 6th win for bowl eligibility. It would be a great accomplishment considering the Redhawks started the season 0-6 but have since rattled off 5 straight wins and gone 5-0 ATS in the process. While the Hawks are "up" for this game I look for Ball State to have a tough game here as first-year Cardinals coach Mike Neu is trying to "rally the troops" but their ugly loss at Toledo (37-19) last week ended their chances at bowl eligibility. The Cardinals defense is struggling and has allowed 534.6 yards per game in MAC games while the Redhawks D has been fantastic in conference action and allowed only 319.6 yards per game. Miami QB Gus Ragland has filled in as Billy Bahl tries to come from injury and Ragland has 12 TDs against 0 picks! In fact, turnovers are a key when looking at how this match-up is likely to play out tonight. The Redhawks have won the turnover battle by a combined 11-4 during their five game winning streak while the Cardinals have lost the turnover battle by a combined 15-5 in their last 6 games! Ball State is 1-8 ATS in November games the past 3 seasons combined while Miami is 8-2 ATS over that same period of time in their games against teams with a losing record. When on a winning streak of 2 games or more, the Redhawks have gone a perfect 3-0 ATS while the Cardinals are on an 0-4 ATS run in Tuesday games. In their 3rd year under coach Chuck Martin the Redhawks have finally hit their stride and they also have a big rest edge here as this is just their third game this month and they've been off since the 12th. The Cards just played on Wednesday and this will be their 4th game in 22 days this month. The Cardinals are ready for the season to end while the Redhawks are geared up to qualify for a bowl as, should they make one, it would be their first since the 2010 season. 8* MIAMI-OHIO Tuesday

PAC-12 Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #406 Saturday - 10* Top Play UCLA Bruins (+) vs USC Trojans @ 10:30 ET - Huge rivalry game of course and the Bruins have some added confidence after getting back into the win column with a big win over Oregon State last week. This week UCLA catches the Trojans off of their big upset win at Washington last week as a TD+ underdog. Give USC credit as that was a very impressive performance but of course it is difficult to come out and have your "A game" in back to back weeks and, in my opinion, it would take another "A game" from the Trojans to be able to cover this large spread Saturday night. Yes, QB Josh Rosen is out for the season for the Bruins but starting in his place is a 5th year senior, Mike Fafaul, who completed 25 of 47 passes for 281 yards last week. Of course it will be a much tougher task for Fafaul and Company against the USC defense BUT how much will the Trojans have left in the tank after that huge upset win last week? Also, lets not forget that the Bruins defense has been fantastic this season as only one team (Utah) has scored more than 27 points against this defense (not including overtime points). Sure USC has put up big points against bad Pac 12 defenses and against an overmatched Utah State team in non-conference action. However, in the Trojans other 5 games (against quality defenses) they were held to an average of only 18 points per game. I just don't see USC getting enough against this quality Bruins defense to blow UCLA away. Simply put, this game will go down to the wire as the 4-6 Bruins would love nothing more than to eliminate their hated rival from PAC-12 South contention. The Trojans are a long-term 5-10 ATS as road favorites of 10.5 to 14 points. In games played in weeks 10 through 13 of a season, the Bruins are 7-2 ATS their last 9. The home team is on a 14-5 ATS run in this series and, overall, USC is on a 11-22 ATS run as a road favorite. The Bruins had won 3 straight in this series (all by double digits) before last seasons embarrassing 40-21 loss to the Trojans. It is time for a little payback here. 10* UCLA Bruins plus the big points Saturday

Contrarian Smash - Rickenbach CFB Game #391 Saturday - 8* Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+) @ Central Florida Knights @ 8 ET - The Knights have bounced back from an insane 0-12 season to go 6-4 so far this season. However, their 6 wins included one against an FCS school and 5 against FBS schools that each have at least 7 losses on the season! The point is that I am not sold on the UCF turnaround and Tulsa comes into this game angry off of a tight loss at Navy last week. The Golden Hurricane are averaging 518.5 yards of offense per game and this will prove to be too much for a Central Florida offense that is averaging only 361.5 yards per game. Tulsa is playing the 2nd of back to back road games for the only time this season but this is a situation that has seen them go 7-1 ATS their last 8 and I like backing them off of a loss as they now look to get back on track with a win. They are a perfect 5-0 ATS their last 5 games. Also, Tulsa is an incredible 27-7 SU (and ATS!) when they score 30 points or more in a conference game. So far this season the Golden Hurricane have scored at least 31 points in every single game except for when they faced Ohio State. Look for the Tulsa offense to stay red hot and Central Florida gets exposed here! I'll gladly fade a line move that has seen the Golden Hurricane go from being as high as a 4 point favorite to now being a 1 point dog in this one. 8* TULSA Saturday

The Big Game - Rickenbach CFB Game #376 Saturday - 8* California Golden Bears (+) vs Stanford Cardinal @ 5:30 ET - Of course this literally is "The Big Game" and Stanford has won 6 straight match-ups. However, this could be "the year" for Cal as an upset here would not surprise me given the situation but, either way, the fact is that the points are too much here. Without a doubt the Cardinal possess the much better defense but there also is no doubt that California has the much more explosive offense. That said, I feel this is a rather "even match-up" and yet we're able to get double digit points with the home dog! Keep in mind, Cal has to have this game to keep bowl eligibility hopes alive and also, of course, the added motivational edge of the players on this California team wanting to finally have "The Stanford Axe" that remains with the team who wins this annual battle. None of these players have ever had it since they haven't beaten Stanford since 2009. Note that the Cardinal finally had an offensive explosion last week but this was a team that previously had averaged only 19.9 points per game in their first 9 games of this season. It's hard to cover a spread like this one when you struggle to put points on the board and I am not "sold" on the Stanford offense after just one game. It's also doubly hard to cover a big spread like this when you're facing a team that averages nearly 40 points and over 500 yards per game! Even though the Bears have lost bad the past three weeks, they have averaged 454 yards of offense per game and they will have some success against the Cardinal D as this is one of the top offenses in the nation. Cal did recently have an ugly home loss to Washington but they are 3-0 in their other 3 home games this season with wins over Oregon, Utah, and Texas. They also won their neutral site opener in Australia vs Hawaii back in August. The point is that Utah and Texas are certainly not horrible teams and Cal not only beat them but they have won every single non-road game this season other than the one against the Huskies. Keep in mind that's the same Washington team that blasted Stanford 44-6 earlier this season. Simply put, the Cardinal don't belong in this price range against a home dog that has the offense to rise up and keep up the Golden Bears in this one all the way. 8* CALIFORNIA Saturday

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #396 Saturday - 8* Michigan State Spartans (+) vs Ohio State Buckeyes @ Noon ET - Spartans coach Dantonio has a knack for being a cash cow as an underdog. Dantonio is on an 11-2 ATS run as an underdog and 8 of those 11 victories have been outright wins. Though they are unlikely to upset Ohio State here, the spread is far too big. The Spartans lost to rival Michigan here in East Lansing by only 9 points three weeks ago. Also, the weather will be very cold and windy today with temperatures in the 30s and winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40. It is not going to be a day that is conducive for offenses to put up many points. Of course that favors a big underdog like the Spartans are here as they are catching more than 3 TDs in this one. Ohio State has "The Game" on deck as they face the Wolverines next week. That makes this the perfect spot to back a Michigan State team that was able to get some confidence back thanks to annihilating Rutgers 49-0 last week. The Spartans needed that win as it has been a very tough season for them. That makes games like this ultra important to them. It is their home finale and a chance at pulling off a shocker. Though I don't expect that I do expect the Spartans to keep this one much closer than many are expecting. Michigan State is a perfect 13-0 ATS when they are a home dog of more than 4 points and they are coming off of a SU win. Ohio State is a winless 0-9 ATS when they are a road favorite of less than 25 points and they are coming off of a SU win by double digits and now facing a team with a sub.-500 record. With the Spartans only 3-7 on the season that system fits here and that means that by playing the big home dog we are testing angles that are a combined 22-0, 100%! 8* MICHIGAN STATE Saturday

ESPN ATS Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #311 Thursday - 8* Louisville Cardinals (-) @ Houston Cougars @ 8 ET - The Cougars have not been the same team since all the head coaching rumors started flying around about Tom Herman's future as he is one of the more sought after coaches in the nation. This started right before Houston got upset at Navy and that began a horrible decline for the Cougars that has seen them lose 5 straight ATS. Certainly the Cougars would like nothing more than to play the role of spoiler and step up big-time on ESPN Thursday night and upset one of the top teams in the nation. However, Houston star QB Greg Ward is dealing with a bad shoulder and a bad ankle and, overall, this Cougars team is simply no match for a revenge-minded Cardinals team. Louisville suffered a home loss to the Cougars last season and that ensures that they once they get up huge in this game they will keep the pedal to the metal so I have no qualms about laying the 2 TD spread plus even more on Thursday night. The Cardinals are better on both sides of the ball than the Cougars are. Keep in mind, Houston has been held to an average of 329.7 yards of offense per game in their last 3 games and those were against SMU, UCF, and Tulane! There is no way the Cougars are going to keep up with QB Lamar Jackson and the Cardinals in this one. Jackson and Company are averaging 50 points per game this season and their defense has held their last 3 opponents to 322 yards or less in all 5 games. This is clearly a case of two teams going in opposite directions. The Cardinals are on a 13-3 ATS run when they are on the road and facing a team with a winning percentage of .666 or better. Look for Houston's run to reach 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as the Cards get their payback in a big way tonight. 8* LOUISVILLE Thursday

ESPN2 Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #304 Tuesday - 8* Central Michigan Chippewas (+) vs Ohio University Bobcats @ 7 ET - Senior night in Mount Pleasant, Michigan and one of those seniors is QB Cooper Rush who has been projected as high as a 4th round draft pick in the NFL draft next spring. Look for him to lead the way against a Ohio University team that has won three straight games but that has allowed passing yards of 308 or more in 3 of their last 4 games. In fact, in those 3 games the Bobcats allowed an average of 364.3 passing yards. The Chippewas have lost three straight games and they are hungry to get back on track and make sure they get to a bowl game. The last time they faced Ohio U. the Chips dominated them by a final score of 28-10 two seasons ago. A similar result here would not be a total shock. Central Michigan is very hungry for this game and they have played a tougher schedule than the Bobcats have. Also, the Chippewas are on a perfect 6-0 ATS run in home games where they are off of back to back losses and they are hosting an opponent who is off of back to back wins. In this case, the Chips are coming in on a 3-game losing streak while the Cats are on a 3-game winning streak. Perfect set-up! Adding to the value here is the fact that Ohio U. had two MAC opponents they were facing this year that they lost to last year. One was Bowling Green and the other was Buffalo. After a revenging win over the Falcons earlier this season the Bobcats then lost as a 7 point favorite at home versus Eastern Michigan. Now, after a revenging win over the Bulls last week, look for a similar result here as Ohio University follows up a revenging win with a loss in their next game. 8* CENTRAL MICHIGAN Tuesday

Contrarian Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #202 Saturday - 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers (-) vs Minnesota Golden Gophers @ 7:30 ET - This line has dropped from a -8 down to a -6 and, of course, much of this has to do with the uncertainty of Tommy Armstrong, Jr being cleared to play for Saturday's game. The key here in my mind is that, even if he does not play and it ends up being senior QB Ryker Fyfe that gets the call, the Cornhuskers are still going to annihilate the Golden Gophers here. Minnesota has a nice-looking record but look at who they've beaten! Minny has wins over an FCS school, 2 non-conf FBS schools that are a combined 7-11 this season, and then their 4 Big Ten wins have come against teams that are a combined 5-19 in the conference. Nebraska's Big Ten wins at least include a pair of teams (Indiana and Northwestern) who at least are at .500 in conference action this season. Also, in non-conf action they absolutely blasted a Wyoming team that is now 7-2 on the season. The Huskers have played a much tougher schedule and will be stronger for it in this game. After back to back losses at Wisconsin and Ohio State, the Cornhuskers are happy to be back home and this is a night game at Memorial Stadium in Lincoln which means the atmosphere will be insane! Nebraska also has revenge from a rare home loss to Minny when the Gophers visited 2 years ago. That means it is payback time in this rematch at home. It was some measure of revenge for the Huskers when they blasted the Golden Gophers by 23 in Minnesota last season but now they want a taste of that in Lincoln too! Minny is 3-7 ATS when they enter a game off of back to back wins. Also, Minnesota is 0-7 ATS in their next game after facing Purdue (big rivalry). Also, the Gophers are 0-5 ATS as road dogs of less than 20 points or less when they're off of a game where they scored more than 35 points. That system fits as well here and that means we've got a 15-0 ATS combined mark in favor of the Huskers here because Nebraska is also 3-0 ATS when they enter a game off of back to back losses. They are the better team, they're at home, and Ryker Fyfe did throw for over 400 yards in a rare start last season (against Purdue). The Huskers are rallying around this situation with Tommy Armstrong Jr and, no matter who ends up under center, the Cornhuskers are ready to respond after last week's embarrassing loss. 10* NEBRASKA Saturday

THE Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #169 Saturday - 10* Top Play LSU Tigers (-) @ Arkansas @ 7 ET - Other than Alabama, clearly a team in a class of their own, teams just don't beat LSU in Baton Rouge. It is a rare occurrence and, when it does happen, the Tigers almost always get their revenge in the next meeting. Last week's loss to Alabama for LSU was the first time they've lost at home since Arkansas beat them last season. The Razorbacks beat the Tigers by 17 in Baton Rouge last year to hand LSU its worst home loss since Ole Miss beat them by 18 back in 2008. Needless to say, that makes this a huge revenge spot for LSU and the situation is set up perfectly. The Tigers are off of a 10-0 home shutout versus the Crimson Tide last week while Arkansas is off of a huge revenging 31-10 win versus Florida last week. The Hogs wanted that game badly as they were off of a thorough embarrassment in their prior game (at Auburn) and they had lost to the Gators by 20 points in their most recent game (in coach Bret Bielema's first year in Arkansas). Even though LSU is off of a key game (Alabama) which they wanted badly, the fact that they suffered a home shutout and the fact that they only have a non-conference opponent (South Alabama) on deck ensures that the Tigers will be ready for this revenge opportunity. Arkansas has not won back to back games since mid-September and their defense allows nearly 100 yards more per game than the Tigers defense does. LSU has lost by 17 points to Arky in each of the last two meetings and that adds fuel to the fire for this rematch as the Tigers did lose by a 17-0 count in their last visit to Fayetteville. LSU is on a 10-5 ATS run as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points while Arkansas is on a 5-8 ATS run as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points. The last 6 times that LSU lost a game and were held to 10 points or less, they have won the next game ALL 6 TIMES and gone 5-1 ATS in those games with the lone non-cover coming up just 1 point short. The Tigers bounce back again here, plus get some payback in this double revenge spot, and they catch Arkansas flat off of their huge win over the Gators last week. 10* LSU Tigers Saturday 

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #151 Saturday - 8* Wyoming Cowboys (-) @ UNLV Rebels @ 3:30 ET - This line opened up as high as -9 on Wyoming and then did fall all the way down to a -7. However, it "settled in" at -7.5 but I am still comfortable laying the 7 plus "the hook" in this one. The Cowboys continue to win but also continue to be under-valued and that is why I am investing in them again this week. Wyoming has not suffered a SU loss or ATS loss since they lost a tight game at Eastern Michigan on September 23rd! The Cowboys will now take advantage of facing a UNLV team that has lost 6 of their past 8 games and that is on a 2-5 ATS skid. The Rebels are on a 1-7 ATS run as a home dog and they're hosting a Wyoming team that is on an overall 13-6 ATS run. The Cowboys ground game is led by RB Hill who has totaled 835 rushing yards in his last 5 games. Last season he ran for 232 yards against the Rebels and UNLV's defense has been getting gashed on the ground. Overall, the Rebels have allowed 424 yards or more in 4 straight games. UNLV's only wins this season have come against an FCS school and Fresno State and Hawaii. The Bulldogs and Warriors are a combined 5-15 this season. To put it bluntly, UNLV is simply not a good a football team and this line is a very manageable one. The average margin of defeat for the Rebels this season is 15 points per loss. The Cowboys last 6 wins have seen only 1 victory come by a margin of less than 8 points. Wyoming is on a 9-1 ATS run when they enter a game off of back to back wins against conference opponents. The Rebels are on a 1-6 ATS run when they are off of a SU loss in a game in which they were favored. UNLV is off of a loss as a 3 point fave at San Jose State and the Spartans were 2-7 on the season. Bad football team and Wyoming is a team on a mission. They do have a big game on deck with San Diego State but the Cowboys showed last week (when off of a huge win over Boise State and still blasted Utah State) that, no matter the situation, this team is coming to play each week. 8* WYOMING Saturday

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #165 Saturday - 8* Kentucky Wildcats (+) @ Tennessee Volunteers @ Noon ET - The whole world is jumping on Tennessee here and that's not a surprise as the Volunteers have dominated long-term in their series with the Wildcats. However, Kentucky has gone from an 11 point dog to a 14 point dog in this one and that is opening up exceptional line value on the Cats. Keep in mind, these teams have faced very similar schedules in terms of strength of opponents and Kentucky had won 5 of 6 both SU and ATS before last week's tough loss to Georgia. Sure that was a tough defeat for the Wildcats to lose by just a field goal to the Bulldogs but do you really think they won't be fired up about an opportunity to resume their recent winning ways against a hated rival that always seems to have their number? Undoubtedly, Kentucky will bring their "A game" Saturday and they're facing a Vols team that just blasted an FCS team last week but that has lost three straight SEC games and also is on a 1-3 ATS run in SEC games. The Volunteers continue to be over-valued by the betting markets and Tennessee is on a 2-10 ATS run when they are home favorites of 8 points or more and facing an opponent who is playing with revenge. The Wildcats only have 2 losses by double digit margins this season and those were to SEC East leader Florida and SEC West leader Alabama. Tennessee only has 2 wins this season by more than 10 points and one was against FCS opponent Tennessee Tech last week and the other was by 21 points over Virginia Tech but the Hokies outgained the Vols by a 400 to 330 margin in that game! Don't be surprised if the Wildcats keep this game much closer than many are expecting. Statistically these teams are very similar this season and the Cats are highly motivated because of getting beaten badly by the Volunteers in recent years. 8* KENTUCKY Saturday 

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach CFB Game #117 Friday - 8* Boston College Eagles (+) @ Florida State Seminoles @ 7:30 ET - Against the ACC's top teams (Virginia Tech, Clemson, Louisville), the Eagles defense struggled. In their other 6 games this season, Boston College allowed an average of only 13.2 points per game. The Eagles D is viewing this Friday night game under the ESPN2 cameras as an opportunity to show that this unit can still get the job done against the better teams in the nation. Under coach Steve Addazio, Boston College has lost to the Seminoles all 3 years but no loss was by more than 14 points and the Eagles only lost by 3 points in their lone visit to Florida State since Addazio took over. Even though the BC offense is having another tough season, the Noles secondary and linebacking corps is simply not what it used to be. That's played a big role in Florida State's drop-off this season. The Seminoles once vaunted defense has allowed 450 yards or more in 5 of their last 7 games! The Eagles offense, with QB Patrick Towles further healed up from his hamstring problems, may surprise the Noles with some big plays downfield. Florida State is an ugly 1-6 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. The Eagles, under Addazio, have gone 7-3 ATS as a double digit dog. Also, BC is a long-term 5-1 ATS as a road dog of 17.5 to 21 points. FSU has been outgained in back to back weeks. The Seminoles did come from behind for the non-covering win at NC State last week but they are 6-11 ATS when off of a win in conference action and I expect another non-covering win here for the Noles. Florida State used a lot of energy up in their comeback win over the Wolfpack last week. It's been back to back grueling games for the Seminoles as they went toe to toe in a slugfest with Clemson the prior week as well. The Eagles are amped up for this weeknight "spotlight game" opportunity and will keep this game much closer than many are expecting. 8* BOSTON COLLEGE Friday

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #111 Thursday - 8* North Carolina Tar Heels (-) @ Duke Blue Devils @ 7:30 ET - Without a shadow of a doubt, the Blue Devils do want this game badly. They are winless in ACC action, this is their home finale, they need the W to have a shot at bowl eligibility, and this is the battle for the Victory Bell in this rivalry match-up. The problem for Duke is that that the Tar Heels also have plenty of motivation here and they are the far superior team with the much better (and much more experienced QB). North Carolina is a solid 7-2 on the season and still has hopes of an ACC title. UNC is led by QB Mitch Trubisky and the 6'3 junior has a 19-2 TD-INT ratio which is even more impressive when you take out the game played during poor conditions (Hurricane Matthew). Without that game included (horrible weather), Trubisky has thrown 19 TDs and ZERO picks on the season. His counterpart tonight is a redshirt freshman, 6'5 Daniel Jones, who has thrown for 6 TDs (but also 6 picks) in his last 5 games. Jones is a dual threat QB but on a beautiful night in Durham, NC tonight the key to the big winner here is going to be the team with the better passing game. The Blue Devils defense is known for giving up huge plays and the Tar Heels aerial attack will pick them apart for big plays all game long. North Carolina, other than the Hurricane Matthew game, has thrown for an average of 380.3 passing yards per game since mid-Sept. The Tar Heels have also averaged 207.3 yards per game on the ground their last 3 games. Their offense will tear apart the Blue Devils defense and Duke won't be able to keep up with UNC here. The Heels are on a 6-1 ATS run as a road favorite. Also, North Carolina has a long-term mark of 4-1 ATS when they are a road favorite of 10.5 to 14 points so don't let the big number scare you here. Duke is only 1-3 SU and ATS in Thursday games. The Blue Devils have lost to the Tar Heels by a margin of 30 points per defeat the last two seasons and another loss by double digits is likely here as UNC's roll is simply too strong right now. 8* NORTH CAROLINA Thursday

12-0 MAC Smash - Rickenbach CFB Game #105 Wednesday - 8* Toledo Rockets (-) vs Northern Illinois Huskies @ U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago, IL @ 8 ET - Even though the Huskies have won 2 straight games they still have only 3 wins on the season and those victories came against teams that have a combined record of 2-14 in the MAC. As for Toledo, they are 7-2 on the season with the only two losses to BYU and Ohio U. and those teams are combined 12-7 on the season. Not only are the Rockets the superior team this season, this is also not a true home game for the Huskies since it's being played in Chicago. Regardless of the venue, the road team has covered 5 straight in the Toledo/Northern Illinois series and this is a major revenge spot for the Rockets since the Huskies have gotten the SU win in 6 straight meetings! Toledo has thrived away from home as they are on a 12-1 ATS run their last 13 away from the Glass Bowl. The Rockets also entered this season with a 6-1 ATS mark when playing with revenge and facing an opponent with a winning percentage of .600 or less. In weekday road games, Toledo is on a 7-0 ATS run after last Wednesday's easy cover at Akron. Combining that mark with the aforementioned 5-0 ATS mark in favor of the road team in the L5 Rockets/Huskies match-ups and that means a 12-0, 100% PERFECT ATS mark is being tested Wednesday night. With this number still available at -6.5 even with a potential line move upward it should still be well within range for an easy cover. 6 of the 7 Rockets wins this season have come by 14 points or more. 8* TOLEDO Wednesday

MW Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #380 Saturday - 10* Top Play Wyoming Cowboys (-) vs Utah State Aggies @ 10:15 ET - Wyoming was as high as a 7 point fave but has now dropped to a -4 as of gameday morning. The line move is completely understood as many are looking to fade the Cowboys off of their big upset win over Boise State. The reason that angle does not concern me is four fold. 1) Utah State is not a good football team. 2) Wyoming is home for a 2nd straight week. 3) The Cowboys win over the Broncos was not the pinnacle of their season as they still have their sites set on winning the Mountain Division. 4) Revenge is a huge motivating factor and Wyoming has lost each of their last 4 match-ups with Utah State by an average margin of 30 points per defeat! As you can see, despite the big win over Boise last week, there is no way Wyoming is going to come out flat for this game. On the "off chance" that they did however, I would still expect coach Craig Bohl to rally the troops at half-time and this line is very manageable. I just don't see the Cowboys losing at home here and being able to lay just 4 is a huge value. Utah State has only 3 wins this season and those came against an FCS school, a Sun Belt team, and Fresno State - the worst MW team in the conference. The Aggies are off of a 40-13 demolishing loss at San Diego State last week and Utah State has gone 1-6 ATS when they are off of a game where they allowed more than 35 points and are then facing a team who is off of back to back SU wins. In this case, the red hot Cowboys have won 4 straight games and the roll should continue Saturday. Wyoming is 8-1 ATS when they are off of back to back SU wins and facing a conference opponent. Also, the Cowboys are 5-1 ATS when they are a home favorite of more than 3 points and playing in a revenge opportunity versus and opponent off of a SU loss by a double digit margin. 10* WYOMING

SEC Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach CFB Game #411 Saturday - 8* Alabama Crimson Tide (-) @ LSU Tigers @ 8 ET - The Tigers, as a sizable home dog here, are a very popular choice this week. Of course those who have followed me for years know I like to fade the masses and top ranked Alabama is one team that certainly is not going to fall apart just because they're playing a night game at LSU. The key to this selection is that there has been much talk about how well the Tigers have played since the Auburn loss and the subsequent firing of head coach Les Miles. However, LSU has played Missouri and Ole Miss in SEC action and those teams are a combined 1-8 in conference games this season! The other game was a non-conference game for LSU and they faced Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles are a C-USA team that had lost to UTSA by 23 points the prior week. The point is that LSU's "big" 3-0 run sans Miles has come against very weak opposition. On the season as a whole, Alabama has played a much tougher schedule than LSU has and the Tigers are facing a team that is better than they are on both sides of the ball. The Crimson Tide have won 5 straight in this series and they covered 4 of those 5 games. Also, Bama entered this season with this interesting stat in tow. They are 12-2 ATS when they are on the road off of a straight-up win and they are facing an opponent who is off of a straight-up win by a double digit margin. Lay the points while the masses are salivating at getting an over-rated LSU team as a home dog of a TD. The Tigers are a dog in this range for a reason and I smell a punishing road victory come in this one as it is Roll Tide Roll. 8* ALABAMA

Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CFB Game #346 Saturday - 8* NC State Wolfpack (+) vs Florida State Seminoles @ 7 ET - Even though NC State is 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings with FSU, the Wolfpack have lost each of the last three meetings by double digit margins. That said, NC State is definitely hungry and wants to make the most of this opportunity to exact revenge at home. The Wolfpack are certainly catching Florida State at the perfect time to do just that. The Seminoles are off of a hard-fought emotionally draining loss to Clemson last week. It is hard to imagine the Noles having a lot left in the tank (mentally and physically) after suffering their third loss in the last six weeks. The Seminoles just haven't been able to get over the hump this season and they now face a Wolfpack team that has "nothing to lose" and will "leave it all on the field" in this one. Assuredly, the Noles are going to get NC State's best effort and the Wolfpack thrive in home games that are projected to be higher scoring. NC State has gone 13-6 SU and ATS in home games with a posted total between 56.5 and 63 points. Also, the Wolfpack are hosting a Seminoles team that is 0-3 ATS the last 3 times when it is a road game that follows playing Clemson. Hitting the road after the emotional loss to the Tigers, look for that run to go to 0-4 ATS. This situation favors NC State as they are playing a 2nd straight home game, off of a loss, and they are allowing only 95 rushing yards per game at home. Florida State is on an 8-14 ATS run as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. 8* NC STATE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #402 Saturday - 8* Mississippi State Bulldogs (+) vs Texas A & M Aggies @ Noon ET - Under head coach Kevin Sumlin, the Aggies typical late season fade at the betting window seems to be underway. Texas A & M has lost 4 straight games ATS as they head into a tough road match-up at Mississippi State. The Aggies last 3 seasons under Sumlin have seen them finish up on a 2-7 ATS run twice and a 1-6 ATS run once. That's a combined 5-20 ATS mark and this season, the Aggies are already on an 0-4 ATS run with four regular season games to go. As a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points, Texas A & M is on a 1-6 ATS run the past 4 seasons combined. Both of these teams are strong on offense with question marks on defense. That said, I'll gladly grab the home dog that is getting double digits as the Aggies are still over-rated in my opinion. The Bulldogs are only 3-5 on the season but 4 of their 5 losses came by a TOTAL of just 13 points. Mississippi State is on an 8-4 ATS run as an underdog and they will turn this one into a dogfight in Starkville! The Bulldogs do have Alabama on deck but they know they need to win this to still have a shot at making a run at a bowl game and, surprisingly, they are on a 5-0 ATS run in games that are the week prior to facing the Crimson Tide. Look for that record to improve to 6-0 ATS Saturday. 8* MISSISSIPPI STATE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #309 Thursday - 8* Buffalo Bulls (+) @ Ohio University Bobcats @ 6 ET - The Bobcats are playing with revenge here as they lost at Buffalo by 24 points last season even though they were a 3-point favorite. However, simply put, this line is over-inflated for this early evening Thursday match-up. From a situational perspective it is not a great spot for Ohio as they are off of a huge win last Thursday at Toledo. They won by 5 as a 15 point dog and that was the Bobcats first win at The Glass Bowl in 50 years! Needless to say that could leave the Bobcats a little flat early in this game. Also, Ohio U. continues to have big issues at the QB position and that means they have to rely heavily on their ground game in this one and just allow their young QB to try and be a game manager and not make mistakes. That said, this is not the type of game where the Bobcats are likely to be able to run up the score. Also, the Bulls are only 2-6 on the season but both wins came as double digit dogs. Buffalo has some extra confidence after last week's win at Akron as a 19.5 point dog. The Bulls got their ground game going again as they rushed for 378 yards. Look for a steady dose of running from both teams in this one and the result should be a much closer game than many are expecting. Keep in mind, the Bobcats have not won a game by more than 16 points all season and, in MAC games, their biggest win was 10 points and their average margin of victory has been 6.3 points. Ohio U is likely to get the win here but not the cover. The Bulls are a young team and also now in their 2nd year of new systems under their coach. Last week's win over the Zips was a sign that this team is starting to put it together and, keep in mind, their ugly loss at Northern Illinois was fueled by turnovers. In their five prior games, the Bulls turned the ball over a TOTAL of just 3 times. 8* BUFFALO BULLS Thursday

ESPN2 Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #305 Wednesday - 8* Toledo Rockets (-) @ Akron Zips @ 7:30 ET - The Rockets are off of a rare loss and will respond huge Wednesday night. The Zips are off of a loss as well and also are excited about this home game opportunity on ESPN2. However, Akron is simply a mess right now. They've lost 2 of their last 3 games and have allowed an average of 330 rushing yards per game in those contests! That means Toledo should be able to run the ball at will in tonight's game and, of course, establishing the run allows a team to then have infinite possibilities to open up the playbook and attack through the air. The Rockets are averaging 347 passing yards per game this season so Akron's defense is in real trouble here. Toledo also is well known as road warriors. In games away from the Glass Bowl, the Rockets have gone 11-1 ATS their last 12! Toledo has straight up wins in 10 of their last 11 away from home! While the spread may seem sizable here, the Zips have been getting dominated statistically of late while the Rockets have been on the right end of the domination for much of this season. Also, Toledo is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 weekday road games and 6-1 ATS when playing with revenge against a sub-.600 opponent. The Rockets last played the Zips in their season finale of 2013 and that game was at Akron. Toledo lost the game by 2 points and that remains the only year out of the past 6 seasons that the Rockets have not made a bowl game. Trust me, they have not forgotten. It is time for payback Wednesday night and Akron is on a 2-8 ATS run when they are off of a straight-up loss as a favorite. They were a big road fave at Buffalo last week and yet lost the game by 3 TD's. That is a sign of things to come in this one as another blowout looms. The combined ATS mark of those 3 streaks noted above is 20-3 ATS in favor of the road team in this one. I'll take it! 8* TOLEDO ROCKETS Wednesday

Tuesday Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #301 Tuesday - 8* Bowling Green Falcons (+) @ Northern Illinois @ 8 ET - This line moved up from 15.5 to 17 and I completely understand the move as the Huskies are seeking revenge for December's loss to the Falcons. However, just because I understand the move doesn't mean I agree with it. Simply put, the points are too big here. Both teams are having tough seasons but the Falcons numbers really got skewed by horrible losses at Ohio State and Memphis. Bowling Green did get blown out in both of those games. However, in their other 6 games the Falcons allowed an average of 34.5 points per game while scoring an average of 26.3 points per game. They're facing a Northern Illinois team that is off of a blowout win over Buffalo. That 44-7 win over the Bulls is helping to give us an inflated line here. Prior to that game, the Huskies had allowed an average of 37.3 points per game and went 1-6 in those 7 games. You can see that Northern Illinois is truly nothing special this season and their defense has been just as bad as the Falcons defense. I don't see the Huskies as being able to create much of a margin in this game. These teams are very nearly equal and home field edge plus the revenge angle aren't enough of a factor to justify this huge line. Also, Bowling Green has a long-term mark of 19-9 ATS as an underdog in a range of 10.5 to 21 points. Northern Illinois is on a 5-9 ATS run in home games the past three seasons combined. The Huskies have failed to cover 3 of their last 4 home meetings with the Falcons. 8* BOWLING GREEN Tuesday

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach CFB Game #149 Saturday - 8* Clemson Tigers (-) @ Florida State Seminoles @ 8 ET - Though some of the "luster" has been taken off of this match-up because of the Seminoles having two losses on the season, it is still a big game. Certainly it is an important game to QB Deshaun Watson and the Tigers. Watson remembers his first game here (a loss in OT two years ago) and is seeking payback. Losses have been few and far between for Watson as the starting QB at Clemson and last year's home win over the Noles certainly was satisfying but a win at Tallahassee to make up for the last trip here is still a key goal for Watson and Company. The bye week helped them to get healthy too. Even though Florida State is also off of a bye week, the Noles are on an 0-4 ATS run when off of a bye week. Conversely, the Tigers are on a 3-1 ATS run when playing with two or more weeks of rest between games. Clemson is also 16-2 SU (and 12-6 ATS) in their last 18 games against teams with a winning record. The Noles are a subpar 7-10 ATS in games against teams with a winning record. The Tigers hold an 8-3 ATS mark in the last 11 games against FSU and home field hasn't been an advantage at the betting window. In fact, the road team has gotten the cash in 4 straight meetings between these teams. The Noles pass defense has been a surprising weakness for Florida State this season and Watson will take advantage. The Tigers have averaged 300 passing yards per game in the last two meetings with the Seminoles and they also ran for over 200 yards in last year's game. Having RB Wayne Gallman back healthy (thanks to the bye week) is a big plus for Clemson this week. Look for the Tigers to roll on the road as Clemson is battle-tested and has proven they can come up big at crunch time. The same can truly not be said for FSU who got blasted at Louisville, had to have a huge rally to beat Ole Miss, and lost at home to UNC. 8* CLEMSON TIGERS Saturday

Contrarian Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #180 Saturday - 10* Top Play Ole Miss Rebels (+) vs Auburn Tigers @ 7:15 ET - As long-time followers know, I like to be a contrarian. The very first numbers that popped up on this game when the lines came out mid-day Sunday showed Ole Miss as a -1.5 favorite! Now, as of early Saturday morning, the line is all the way up to -5 on Auburn. That is a swing of nearly a full TD on this line. Of course I completely understand the move. The Tigers have been moving the ball extremely well on the ground and the Rebels have been struggling to stop the run. Also, Ole Miss has been known for 2nd half struggles so far this season while Auburn has been dominating teams of late. With all that said, every week is a new week and Ole Miss is now at home, in a must win spot, and they are catching Auburn off of an easy win that will have them overconfident. I would not be surprised to see the Rebels get the upset in Oxford Saturday evening but certainly am grabbing the generous points being offered. Ole Miss, before last week's poor effort on the road, had been 6-0 ATS when they were an underdog off of a SU loss. Though that streak suffered a loss last week, look for the Rebels to bounce back big at home. The defense of Mississippi is tired of hearing all about their shortcomings and not being able to stop the run. When you are at home, off of back to back road losses, and constantly being told about an inability to do something, you often will step up the very next change you get. Make no mistake about it, the Rebels at home are fired up for this game and the defense is going to be flying all over the field. I know Auburn has looked great of late. I won't deny that. However, the Tigers beat LSU before they fired Les Miles. They were struggling under Miles. Then, Auburn's other wins during this streak included beating a Sun Belt team (UL Monroe) and a Mississippi State team that is now 2-5 on the season. Yes, the Tigers flattened Arkansas last week but that is one game. The point is that Auburn's 4-game winning streak is impressive but has a couple of asterisks on it and I can guarantee you that Ole Miss is not going to "hand this game" to the Tigers! I look for the Rebels to play their best game of the season and this is a team that is averaging 37 points per game on the season. Also, Mississippi is on a 15-3 SU (and 13-5 ATS) run in home games. In games played on turf the Rebels are on a 37-18 ATS run. Look for the Tigers to drop to 1-9 ATS their last 10 in games the week before facing Vandy. Also, Auburn was 2-8 ATS in regular season non-home games before getting that road win and cover at Mississippi State three weeks ago. The point is that they are not exactly road warriors and yet they are being bet like they are this week. I'll gladly grab the value on the other side and I expect an upset but will take the generous points. 10* OLE MISS REBELS Saturday

Watch-n-Win Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #159 Saturday - 8* Baylor Bears (-) @ Texas Longhorns @ 3:30 ET - This has become an intense rivalry in Texas as Baylor's football program has improved through the years. The Bears use to be the punching bag of the Longhorns but that all changed 6 years ago when Baylor went into Austin and beat the Horns in 2010. That began a 4-1 run in this series for Baylor but they then lost last year's match-up in Waco. Keep in mind that was one of just 3 homes losses the Bears have had since the 2011 season began! The point is that you can bet Baylor hasn't forgotten that defeat and the boxscore shows what happened. Despite a 479-307 yardage edge the Bears had, Baylor lost due to a 4-0 turnover deficit. Now Baylor heads into Austin this season with a 6-0 record on the season. I am well aware of the fact that the Longhorns (3-4 on the season) have played a tougher schedule this season. However, the Horns 3 wins came against team that have a combined 5-16 record on the season! Their 4 losses were to solid teams but not necessarily powerhouses. Texas has lost two games to teams that are now 5-2 on the season and two games to teams that are now 4-3 on the season. The Longhorn defense is a disaster this season and they're facing a Baylor team that is ranked among top teams in the country on BOTH sides of the ball. The road team has taken each of the last two meetings between these nearby rivals and I look for that trend to continue Saturday. Baylor has fresh legs (off of their bye week) and they've gone 6-1 SU with rest and only failed to cover in 2 of those 7 games. Also, the Bears entered this season with an 8-0 ATS mark in games where they are favored by less  than 14 points against a sub-.500 opponent. You can tell by the O/U on this game that a lot of points are expected and I expect Texas to fail to keep up in this one. The Longhorns are 0-3 ATS in home games with a posted total of 70 points or more. The Bears offense will prove to be too much. 8* BAYLOR BEARS Saturday

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #114 Friday - 8* South Florida Bulls (-) vs Navy Midshipmen @ 7 ET - The Bulls got embarrassed at Temple last Friday. That 16 point defeat has the South Florida defense ready to respond in a huge way. With a bye week on deck for USF, they've had full focus and full energy into preparing for slowing down Navy's triple option attack. The Bulls were not successful in doing so last season but that was their first look. Now they get a shot at revenge and they get that opportunity at home where they made a huge run last season and they look to do the same this season. Keep in mind USF, in earning a bowl bid last season, rallied for a 7-1 finish last year (both SU and ATS) and that included a perfect 4-0 mark (both SU and ATS) at home. The Bulls were off to a 6-1 start this season before last week's ugly effort against the Owls. They will respond this week. This is a quality football team that had gone 13-2 SU and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 regular season games prior to their inexcusable effort at Temple. The Bulls will have more intensity this week, will maintain gap coverage on defense, wrap up their tackles better, and have an all-around much stronger effort as they look to avenge last year's loss to Navy. Note that USF is on a 10-4 ATS run as a favorite (and went 13-1 SU in those games). With this line dipping down to 6.5 (was as high as 8.5) it is "go time" with this one. The Midshipmen have a huge game on deck with Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish handed the Middies one of only two losses last season. Navy already got revenge (Houston) for their other loss last season and they certainly could get caught peeking ahead to the big match-up with ND next week while, as noted above, the Bulls have a bye on deck and are fully focused off of an ugly loss. 8* SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS 

PA Insider - Rickenbach CFB Game #108 Thursday - 8* Pittsburgh Panthers (+) vs Virginia Tech Hokies @ 7 ET - Deservedly, the Hokies get a lot of positive press for their defense. However, if you look at their last 4 games, Virginia Tech has allowed at least 323 passing yards in 3 of the 4 games. The only exception was the game against North Carolina and that's because that game was played when Hurricane Matthew as pounding the area. In the other 3 games not impacted by weather, the Hokies have allowed an average of 363 passing yards per game. Of course, the Panthers are known for being a run-first team that likes to rely on the ground attack. However, Pittsburgh is off of their bye week and coach Pat Narduzzi is an excellent coach who has had extra time to prepare for this game. The Panthers will continue to "pound on the ground" but don't be surprise if they have the playbook on offense opened up a little bit more for this "must win" game in the ACC Coastal Division. Pittsburgh has averaged nearly 200 passing yards per game in their last 5 games. Also, on the ground, the Panthers have averaged 264.5 rushing yards per game their last 6 games. The last time Virginia Tech was off of a big win (34-3 over North Carolina covered spread by 28 points) they then got upset at Syracuse the very next week. The Hokies, when off of a win where they covered the spread by 14 points or more, are on a 2-8 ATS run. Off of their huge win (37-16 as a 4.5 point fave over Miami) last week, look for Virginia Tech to come up short this week. The Panthers are rested and off of a bye and the Hokies get caught still celebrating a big win that moved them into the Top 25. Teams often get knocked off after games like this and certainly an outright upset for Pitt would not surprise but I am grabbing the points here. The Hokies are on a 4-10 ATS run as a road favorite and Pittsburgh has dominated this series with an 8-1 ATS run. The Panthers are also on a 4-1 ATS run as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points. 8* PITTSBURGH Thursday Night

SEC Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #399 Saturday - 10* Top Play Ole Miss Rebels (+) @ LSU @ 9 ET - LSU is in a perfect "play against" spot here. The Tigers certainly have revenge on their minds as they lost badly at Ole Miss last year. However, LSU is simply overvalued in this spot. They have gone from being a 4 point favorite to laying more than a TD in this match-up and that is offering great value to the talented underdog in this match-up. There is a lot of chatter about how great LSU has played since they fired Les Miles after losing to Auburn. However, the Tigers have played only Missouri and Southern Miss since the dismissal of Miles. Missouri is 0-3 in SEC action and has one of the worst defenses in the SEC. Southern Miss is a CUSA team that, other than wins over an FCS school and a 1-6 UTEP team, has allowed 40 points per game in their other 5 games! Ole Miss certainly does not have a great defense but they have forced 7 turnovers in their past three games and the Rebels do have a dynamic offense. This combination has helped lead the way to a 3-2 run their last 5 games and the two losses each came by 5 points or less and one of those was to #1 ranked Alabama. The point is that the Rebels can hang with anybody and I am not convinced that LSU is "back" just because they beat up on two over-matched opponents. Ole Miss is on a 6-2 ATS run as an away dog and 5 of the last 7 meetings between these teams have been decided by 7 points or less. The Rebels are also a PERFECT 6-0 ATS when they are an underdog in a game following a SU loss. After losing to Arkansas last week, the Rebels get the job done this week. 10* OLE MISS

Bargain Hunter - Rickenbach CFB Game #385 Saturday - 8* Old Dominion Monarchs (+) @ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers @ 7 ET - Western Kentucky has gotten the win and cover in each of the first two meetings between these teams - 2014 and 2015. However, both games were very tight to the number and both times the Hilltoppers truly were fortunate to get the cover. Look for the 3rd time to be the charm for the hungry Monarchs in this one. Old Dominion is off of their bye week and they had 3 straight wins prior to the bye. They are rested and confident as they piled up over 500 yards of offense in their win over UMass before the bye. The Monarchs are averaging 483 yards of offense per game in their last 3 games and they catch Western Kentucky off of a grueling double-OT win over Middle Tennessee State. The Hilltoppers were outgained by 84 yards in that game. Western Kentucky has had a knack for tight games this season. The exceptions were a blowout win over Rice (but the Owls are the only remaining winless FBS team) and a blowout loss to Alabama (but they are #1 team in the country) and a blowout win over an FCS team. Of course Old Dominion doesn't fall into any of those categories and I expect another tight Hilltopper game decided by just a single possession. With Western Kentucky off of back to back emotional road games and the Monarchs are off of their bye and buoyed by the return of RB Ray Lawry in their most recent game, this one could be an upset. The Hilltoppers just do not have a solid defense and Lawry and fellow RB Jeremy Cox will keep pounding away on the ground while QB David Washington (12 TDs, only 2 INTs) keeps the defense honest. The Monarchs can put up points in a hurry and they are 4-1 ATS in road games with a posted total between 63.5 and 70 points. 8* OLD DOMINION 

Rickenbach CFB Game #326 Saturday - 8* West Virginia Mountaineers (-) vs TCU Horned Frogs @ 3:30 ET - TCU is not the team it used to be and a lot of that has to do with a defense that just isn't what it once was. The Horned Frogs are allowing 30 points per game this season and their D ranks 86th in the nation. The Mountaineers have flexed their muscles on D with a "bend but don't break" defense that has allowed only 19.4 points per game on the season. Last week, West Virginia was very impressive in holding a dangerous Texas Tech offense (one of the best in the nation) to only 379 yards in a dominating 48 to 17 win. While it may seem that the Mountaineers could be flat off such a big win, the fact is that this is West Virginia's only home game between October 1st and November 5th. In other words, they certainly are going to bring their strongest effort for this one and they also have revenge on their minds as the Mountaineers lost 40-10 at TCU last year and also were defeated by a single point here at home in 2014 when they last hosted the Horned Frogs. West Virginia is 7-3 SU and ATS when off of a win against a conference foe. TCU was outgained by a pathetic Kansas team last week by a 470 to 366 margin. The Horned Frogs only other road game was against a weak SMU team. Now facing their first tough road test of the season, TCU is likely to get blasted. 8* WEST VIRGINIA

Rickenbach CFB Game #333 Saturday - 8* Wisconsin Badgers -3.5 @ Iowa @ Noon ET - Even though the Badgers are off of a hard-fought OT loss versus Ohio State last week, they have their sights set on revenge here as they suffered a home loss to Iowa last season. The Hawkeyes are currently over-valued in my opinion as they have played a much weaker schedule in comparison with Wisconsin. While the Badgers have played the likes of Michigan and the Buckeyes in their past two games (both teams are 6-0 on the season), Iowa has played much weaker Big Ten teams like Minnesota, Northwestern, and Purdue. The Hawkeyes are on a 6-12 ATS run in home games. The Badgers are on a 9-5 ATS run in their games against teams with a winning record. Wisconsin really got their offense going last week (450 yards) against a tough Ohio State team last week and the Badgers have one of the top defenses in the nation. Look for the road fave to get their revenge as the road team has won 5 straight games in this series. I expect 6 in a row after today's game is in the books. 8* WISCONSIN

Rickenbach CFB Game #337 Saturday - 8* NC State Wolfpack (+) @ Louisville Cardinals @ Noon ET - The combination of the loss to Clemson and the bye week seemed to take the air out of the sails of this Cardinals team as they did not impress versus Duke last week. Louisville came nowhere close to covering in that game and they did not force a turnover. Even though the Cardinals only turned the ball over once versus the Blue Devils, the Cards had turned the ball over at least 3 times in 4 of their 5 prior games. That could be an issue here against an opportunistic Wolfpack defense that has forced 7 turnovers in their past two games. NC State is seeking revenge here for a home loss to Louisville last year. The Wolfpack have lost the two meetings by a combined total of 19 points the past two seasons and yet, with money pouring in on Louisville for this game, the spread is now up to 20 on this game. This is offering big dog value to an NC State team that is allowing only 18.7 points per game this season. That is nearly a full TD less than what Louisville is allowing on the season. Certainly the Cardinals are the better team here but, the point is, it may be tough for them to get a big margin in this game. NC State is a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games played on turf. Louisville has a road game at Virginia on deck which certainly may not seem like a big deal but they did lose their last trip to Virginia. That said, they may start peeking ahead to that road game as this one goes on and I don't expect this game to be decided by anything more than a 2 TD margin. The Cardinals are on a 2-6 ATS run as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. 8* NC STATE

Early ESPN Smash - Rickenbach CFB Game #309 Friday - 8* South Florida Bulls (-) @ Temple Owls @ 7 ET - Even though the Bulls failed to cover versus Connecticut Saturday, it truly was a dominating effort as they outgained the Huskies by 151 yards in the 15 point win. South Florida hurt themselves with 4 turnovers but that was very unusual as they had averaged just 1 turnover per game in their first 6 games this season. In other words, one shouldn't expect a repeat of that this week for USF. However, as for Temple, they have struggled all season with turnovers. The Owls are off of a very fortunate win as they got the winning TD with just 1 tick left on the clock. Temple turned the ball over twice in that game at Central Florida, but the Owls had already turned the ball over 3 times in a game in 3 of their 6 prior games. It's been a recurring theme for the Owls this season and they face a USF team that has faced a tougher schedule than Temple has and yet the Bulls offense is still averaging 128 yards more per game than the Owls are. South Florida crushed the Owls by 21 at home last season and, even though they are now facing them at Temple, the Bulls can roll again behind a potent offense. The Owls are 6-1 ATS this season and they were 9-3 ATS in regular season games last year. That continues to make Temple a popular choice and effects their pricing in the markets and, in this case, with the Bulls currently laying 6.5 in this game, the price has come down low enough to absolutely warrant a solid investment in USF. South Florida is on a 13-0 SU run as a favorite and they are 10-3 ATS in those games including 5-1 ATS this season. As a road favorite the Bulls are on a 4-1 ATS run. As for Temple, the Owls are on a long-term run of 15-97 SU against teams with a winning record. If you think that is only ancient history it is truly not as even the last 3 seasons combined they are only 5-9 SU against teams with a winning record. Temple will again struggle with facing a better team (Bulls have also faced the tougher schedule this season) and when USF failed to cover against the Huskies last week it broke a streak of 12-0 ATS in their last 12 SU wins. In other words, when the Bulls win, they nearly always cover. Look for the win and cover for the road fave in this one. 8* SOUTH FLORIDA Friday

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #303 THURSDAY - 8* Miami Hurricanes (+) @ Virginia Tech Hokies @ 7 ET - The Canes are on a 4-1 ATS run the last 5 years in match-ups with the Hokies. Of course that featured head coach Al Golden versus head coach Frank Beamer. But that offers perhaps even more value to this match-up in terms of backing the Hurricanes. Miami replaced a struggling Al Golden with a head coach, Mark Richt, who had a 145-51 record heading into this season. Virginia Tech replaced a future Hall of Famer with a head coach, Justin Fuente, who had a 26-23 record heading into this season. That is no disrespect to Fuente rather it is just to show the two different situations these guys walked into and, with both teams off of disappointing efforts last week, it is more likely that Richt's Hurricanes bounce back. Miami has lost back to back games and they have not lost three straight since 2014. As for the Hokies, they are trying to avoid back to back losses but that is something that has yet to happen this season but happened on multiple occasions in both 2015 and 2014. The point is that the odds certainly favor that is the Canes who bounce back here. These teams have faced similar schedules this season in terms of strength of schedule and both teams have been solid on defense with only 4.2 yards per play allowed so far this season. The difference is in the offensive efficiency as Miami is one of the top teams in the nation with 7 yards per play while Virginia Tech ranks in the lower half of team in the nation with their offense producing only 5.5 yards per play. The Hokies defense also was helped statistically because they recently played North Carolina in horrible weather conditions because of Hurricane Matthew. Note that in their other recent games, Virginia Tech was scorched for 561 overall yards at Syracuse and 362 passing yards at the hands of East Carolina. Other than the game against the Tar Heels (D helped by poor weather conditions), the Hokies defense has faced 3 respectable opponents this season. In those games (Syracuse, East Carolina, and Tennessee), Virginia Tech has allowed an average of 31 points per game! As for Miami, they are allowing an average of only 14 points per game this season and the Hurricanes have not allowed more than 21 points in any game this season. Also, there have been 6 outright upsets in the last 13 meetings between these teams but certainly I am grabbing the points although an outright win would not be a big surprise. The Hokies are on a 5-10 ATS run as a home favorite and this line has climbed up to very near a full touchdown. The Hurricanes are on a 6-2 ATS run in road games with a posted total between 49.5 and 56 points. The Hokies are on an 0-4 ATS run in home games with a posted total between 49.5 and 56 points. 8* MIAMI HURRICANES plus the points early Thursday evening

C-USA Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #170 Saturday - 10* Top Play Rice Owls (+) vs UTSA Roadrunners @ 7 ET Saturday - UTSA is over-rated right now and Rice is under-rated. As a result, there is solid line value here with the home dog. The Roadrunners are off of a big win over Southern Miss but it was a deceiving final score. UT-San Antonio beat the Golden Eagles by a 55-32 final score but gave up 557 yards in the game! The key was 3 Southern Miss turnovers and also that game was a home game for UTSA. Now the Roadrunners take to the road where they have lost both of their games this season and certainly they are not known for being road warriors. Overall, UTSA is on a 3-9 ATS run as a favorite. Rice is off of a much needed bye week and they are playing this game with revenge. A loss to the Roadrunners last season cost the Owls a chance at a bowl game. Rice hasn't forgotten that and they, of course, have the added motivation of being one of just 2 FBS schools (Miami-OH is the other) that are winless on the season. Rice has played a much tougher schedule than UTSA has so far this season and that is a key to evaluating where these teams are really "at" right now. That said, the markets have a false read in my opinion. The line opened up around a pick'em and then went to UTSA -4. The Roadrunners simply aren't worthy of this line move. UT-San Antonio has allowed at least 445 yards per game in three straight games and Rice has won 3 of the 4 all-time meetings between these teams. Even though the Owls stats look very bad, they have played a much tougher schedule than UTSA and they are not only off of a bye, they also have an FCS school on deck so there will be no lookahead here. The Roadrunners have the full attention of the Owls. Rice is on an 8-3 ATS run in their games against teams with a losing record and the Owls are also a perfect 3-0 ATS when off of a bye week. Look for the Roadrunners to drop to 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games. UTSA simply does not travel well and they're going to have their hands full with an angry Owls team off of their bye week. 10* RICE OWLS Saturday evening

ACC Beatdown - Rickenbach CFB Game #140 Saturday - 8* Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs North Carolina Tar Heels @ 3:30 ET - Both of these teams are off of a loss but it is the Canes who are the team that is likely to bounce back huge. The limiting factor for the Tar Heels is a weak defense. Yes the numbers from last week look good for the North Carolina defense but that had to do with bad weather due to Hurricane Matthew pounding the area. Prior to that game UNC had given up at least 421 yards in 4 of their first 5 games. To put that in perspective in terms of Saturday's match-up, note that the Hurricanes have allowed an average of only 284 yards per game on the season. Miami (FL) has given up an average of only 12.8 points per game. The home team has covered 9 of the last 12 match-ups between these teams and Miami has revenge from an ugly loss at North Carolina last season. Miami is on a 9-3 run as a home favorite and also a perfect 3-0 ATS run when off of a SU loss. After last week's tight loss to Florida State, the Hurricanes need to respond with a W and the Canes head coach Richt has an incredible 90-45 (67%) ATS mark in SU wins. So if you like the Hurricanes to win here, the odds are you like them to cover as well. I also like the line move here as this line was up near 10 earlier this week and this line has now come down to a -6.5 as of Friday night. Great line value for the home favorite here. 8* MIAMI-FLORIDA Saturday afternoon

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #174 - Miami-Ohio Redhawks (+) vs Kent State Golden Flashes @ 2:30 ET - The Redhawks are one of just two winless FBS schools remaining (Rice is the other) and this is the perfect spot for Miami-Ohio to get into the win column. Yes, they have injury issues at QB but even if Billy Bahl does not play look for them to fare just fine here on Saturday at home against Kent State. Keep in mind, last week it was a tough road start for a freshman QB but should Noah Wezensky get the start again, it will be his third game and he was much better at home two weeks ago then he was last week on the road. Miami-Ohio, statistically, has been just as good as Kent State this season but they Redhawks just don't have a win yet to show for it. The home team has won 5 of the 7 meetings between these teams but here we are getting line value because of the Redhawks 0-6 record on the season. Miami-Ohio is on a 14-9 ATS run as an underdog. Miami-Ohio also is on a 5-1 ATS run in their games against conference foes with a winning percentage of .333 or less and the Golden Flashes come into this game with a 2-4 record on the season. Look for the Redhawks to get revenge for last season's 20-14 loss at Kent State. Miami-Ohio almost rallied for the win in that road game but threw a late pick in the end zone with about a minute to go in the game. The Redhawks net yards per game this season is only -3.3 and they certainly deserve much better than an 0-6 mark on the season. They will take advantage of a Kent State team that has one of the worst offenses in the nation (ranked #122 for yards per game). 8* MIAMI-OHIO Saturday afternoon

ESPN2 Smash Pass Wednesday - Rickenbach CFB Game #101 - 8* Appalachian State Mountaineers (-) @ UL Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns @ 8 ET - This line opened up at a 10.5 and got bumped up to a 12 in the early activity on Sunday evening and then has since dropped to a 9.5 as of early Tuesday morning. The original line and movement was correct in my opinion. The Mountaineers should blast the Ragin' Cajuns. UL Lafayette has major issues. They're not getting consistent QB play and they brought in a number of junior college transfers in the off-season (hasn't worked out well) and then fired their defensive coordinator after the first game of the season. The fact is that this is a program in disarray as head coach Mark Hudspeth doesn't have a good handle on his own team and his own coaching staff. They will be no match for what is arguably the top team in the Sun Belt Conference as they try to trade blows with Appalachian State on Wednesday night. The Mountaineers are an experienced team and a physical team that can bully a team like UL Lafayette. The Ragin' Cajuns fell to 4-8 last year and it just seems that Hudspeth and company have lost control of this program and they are going to continue heading the wrong direction. On the other side you have a Mountaineers team that went from 4 wins to 7 wins to 11 wins the past three seasons! Even though Appalachian State is only 3-2 this season, that is because they played SEC foe Tennessee and ACC foe Miami in non-conference action. Those are big programs for a Sun Belt team to face but Mountaineers head coach Scott Satterfield is building the program at Appalachian State and he knows that facing teams like that is all part of the equation. In their conference opener, the Mountaineers dominated Georgia State and held them to 241 total yards of offense while forcing 4 turnovers. Appalachian State has defeated the Ragin' Cajuns by at least 19 points in each of their two meetings the past two seasons and I feel the point spread here is indeed at least a touchdown less than it should be. The Mountaineers have not turned the ball over more than once in a game this season. UL Lafayette has 8 turnovers in their last 3 games. The Ragin' Cajuns also have gone 1-4 ATS as home dogs when they are facing a team who is off of a straight-up win by a double digit margin. The Mountaineers beat Georgia State by 14 earlier this month and they can blast UL Lafayette by more than that here. As a home dog of 7.5 to 10 points the Ragin' Cajuns have gone 0-2 ATS. As  road favorite, Appalachian State has gone 5-2 ATS and this is their first ever Wednesday game and the Mountaineers will go "all out" as they know they are in the spotlight with a rare weeknight game on ESPN2 where it is the only football game on TV (unlike typical Thursdays and Fridays). 8* APPALACHIAN STATE

SEC Bulldog Insider - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Game #419 - 8* Georgia Bulldogs (-) @ South Carolina Gamecocks @ 2:30 ET Sunday - I have had a lot of success with the Bulldogs through the years and know the program quite well. Though Georgia is off of a heartbreaking last-second "hail mary" defeat versus Tennessee last week, they are ready to respond. Remember we saw similar circumstances earlier this season when Oklahoma State was off of a devastating defeat to Central Michigan on a "hail mary" play that shouldn't have even been able to happen - no time left and officials made a mistake. The Cowboys responded the next week by defeating Pittsburgh. Even though that win ended up coming by only a TD Okie State had multiple big leads throughout that game and definitely came ready to play. This is the type of effort I expect from Georgia today who has had extra time (with this game being rescheduled to Sunday) to be fully prepared mentally as they look to erase the bitter taste of last week's tough defeat. Georgia is now off of back to back losses and they are 18-2 SU (and 15-5 ATS) the last 20 times they entered a game off of two or more consecutive defeats. South Carolina is getting a few guys back this week that could help the offense but their overall production is just not there. They are still short of playmakers on offense and have produced some of the worst production on offense in the nation so far this year. Georgia is averaging more than 100 yards more per game on offense than are the Gamecocks. Also, South Carolina got drilled by the Bulldogs 52-20 last year and, after having just 1 carry last week, Georgia RB Nick Chubb is listed as probable for this game and I expect him to do plenty of damage here against a South Carolina defense that is allowing more than 200 rushing yards per game. As a fave of 3.5 to 10 points, the Bulldogs have gone 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS. Both teams are in "must win" mode but the road team is the much stronger and more balanced team. Also, Gamecocks head coach Will Muschamp went 1-3 against Georgia (his alma mater) when he was head coach of the Gators. Once against the Bulldogs get the best of Muschamp here. 8* GEORGIA early Sunday afternoon

Big 12 Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #339 -10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders (+) @ Kansas State Wildcats @ 7 ET Saturday - Red Raiders QB Patrick Mahomes is unlikely to play and that's why this line is where it is because, the fact is, the Red Raiders are the better team in this match-up. The key then becomes what happens when the back-up QB comes in for Texas Tech? Though it was "only" Kansas last week, junior QB transfer (from Iowa) Nic Shimonek came in and ran the offense very well and threw 4 TD passes. Shimonek is known as one of the hardest working players on the team and he has been learning Kliff Kingsbury's offense ever since he came over from the Hawkeyes. Shimonek has good size at 6'3 220 lbs and he made good throws and quick reads. He also is full of confidence and has worked very hard to be ready for when he's needed. With many of the quick, shorter passes that are a part of the Red Raiders offense, it is not as difficult to "step in" as a back-up QB and get the job done although Shimonek certainly has the arm and the accuracy for the longer routes as well. Shimonek already got some solid work in back in week one of this season and last week's experience versus the Jayhawks also helps him to prepared for taking on Kansas State here. The Wildcats are only averaging 346 5 yards per game this season and this is nothing new as they averaged only 333.7 yards per game to rank as one of the worst offenses in the nation. While I do respect their defense, Kansas State was ripped apart for 59 points by the Texas Tech offense last season and they also were heading into that game off of a loss as well. That said, the fact that the Wildcats are off of a tough tight loss at West Virginia doesn't truly strengthen their position here. In fact, when Kansas State is home off of a straight-up loss and facing an opponent off of a win by a double digit margin, the Wildcats have gone 0-4 ATS. Also, Texas Tech is on a 4-2 ATS run as a road dog and their offense (both based on yardage and points per game) is #1 in the nation in both key categories. The Wildcats just don't have the firepower to keep up here and their defense was exposed last season frequently by teams with high-powered offenses. The Cats allowed 36.9 points per game in their final 11 games last season. That is significant in looking at this match-up because Kansas State never scored more than 45 points in a game last season. This season the Wildcats put up big points on poor teams like Florida Atlantic and Missouri State but they averaged only 14.5 points in their other two games. The Wilcats were outgained by a margin of 422 to 286 last week at West Virginia and the numbers are likely to be even more skewed this week. That has me backing the big dog here that absolutely has a great shot at an outright upset win on the road. The Red Raiders are averaging 664 yards of offense per game this season and though their defense is always a liability, they have some confidence with last week's strong performance and, again, the Wildcats just don't have the offense to take advantage. In their two games that weren't against "cupcake opponents" Kansas State has only completed 29 of 71 passes this season! 10* Top Play TEXAS TECH Saturday 

Ugly Dog - Rickenbach CFB Game #345 - 8* Purdue Boilermakers (+) @ Illinois Illini @ 3:30 ET Saturday - Taking advantage of line value here as Illinois opened up right around a 7 point favorite and then has moved up to being a double digit favorite. I just don't see it with the Illini. Sure Purdue is really no better but that is what you have here. Two bad Big Ten teams matched up so the only difference one could really see as value would be home field but that hasn't held true in this series. The road team has actually gotten the win in each of the last four meetings. Couple that with the fact that the Boilermakers have revenge from a bad home loss to Illinois last year and you have the makings of a truly dangerous "ugly dog" here. Purdue has plenty of motivation and is also coming off of an ugly loss at Maryland. Conversely, the Illini are coming off of a more respectable showing than many expected at Nebraska last week as they only lost by 15 points. However, Illinois was dominated statistically as they were outgained by over 150 yards in the game and the Cornhuskers had more than double the first downs that Illinois compiled. The Illini are on a long-term 15-24 ATS run as a home favorite while the Boilermakers are on an 11-6 ATS run as a road dog. Illinois is an ugly 2-13 ATS when they are off of back to back SU losses and facing a team that is coming off of a SU loss by double digits! That is precisely the case here with the Boilermakers off of that 50-7 loss to the Terrapins last week. Even with the loss last week Purdue is still on an 8-1 ATS run their last 9 games as a double digit dog. Grab the big points with the road dog Boilermakers here. 8* PURDUE Saturday afternoon

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #332 - 8* Connecticut Huskies (+) vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 11:30 AM ET Saturday - Depending on when and where they were played, the Huskies have delivered as bad as an ugly 0-5 ATS mark this season for their backers. This is helping to give us solid line value here with Connecticut as a 3-point home dog. The Huskies want this game badly as, not since the days of Randy Edsall roaming the sidelines have the Huskies managed to knock off Cincinnati. Each of the last five years UConn has lost to the Bearcats and, after facing the new fast-paced attack of Syracuse and then the powerhouse attack of offensive juggernaut, Houston, the Huskies will be glad to face an offense that is struggling. Cincy can't settle down at the QB position as regular #1 Hayden Moore has been out with an injury and the Bearcats have now waffled between a young QB (Trail) and a veteran QB (Gunner Kiel) who was outplayed by Hayden Moore. The result has been very inconsistent offense from the Bearcats and, in fact, they are now on a 2-7 ATS run dating back to last season. Also, the home team in the match-ups between these two teams is 8-3 ATS even though Cincy has gotten the SU win in five straight match-ups. The Huskies have thrived as a home dog (22-9 ATS) and in their most recent conference home game they upset Houston - the Cougars only loss last season! The Huskies have a rest edge with two extra days off since they last played on Thursday. The Bearcats are on a 2-4 ATS run when they are off of a loss in conference action. As a home dog of 3 points or less the Huskies are on a 7-3 ATS run and this has the makings of an upset as Cincinnati's poor play at the QB position continues to plague them. 8* CONNECTICUT very early Saturday

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #312 - 8* Boston College Eagles (+) vs Clemson Tigers @ 7:30 ET Friday - Clemson is one of the top teams in the country and I have all the respect in the world for this team. That said, the fact is that the Tigers are in a very tough spot here and I like the line value we are seeing in this one. This line opened up around a 16 but is now as high as an 18 as of gameday morning and Clemson is known for having some struggles at times when they visit Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts. The Tigers are off of a key victory in their huge game with Louisville last week but it didn't come easy. Not only did Clemson get outgained by the Cardinals but, also the Tigers had to rally for the win after they gave up a 26-0 run to Louisville after halftime. That game was an emotional come from behind win for Clemson in a marquee game Saturday and now the Tigers are on the road on a short week. In the last 7 meetings between these teams the road team has gotten the cash only 2 times. Clemson has won 3 of their last 5 trips to Chestnut Hill but 2 of the 3 wins came by 6 points or less. Overall, the Tigers are on an ugly 3-7 ATS run as a road favorite. As for Boston College, they come into this game off of a much easier contest compared to the exhausting battle Clemson just had with Louisville. The Eagles just knocked off Buffalo by a 35-3 count with a ridiculous yardage edge of 400 to 67 over the Bulls. Boston College has a bye week on deck which is also a big edge as Clemson is truly in a sandwich spot after the big win over the Cardinals and with NC State on deck for next Saturday's homecoming game. Once again this season the Eagles have a rock solid defense and the offense is improving as 6'5" QB Patrick Towles (a graduate transfer from Kentucky) has gotten more comfortable with the Eagles. Clemson is on an 1-4 ATS run in games played on turf. BC is on a 3-0 ATS run as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points. Look for the Eagles to give the Tigers a tough battle in this one as the situational edges are big for the home team here. 8* BOSTON COLLEGE Friday 

ESPN2 Smash - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #302 - 8* Arkansas State Red Wolves (+) vs Georgia Southern Eagles @ 8 PM ET Wednesday - On the surface this looks like a complete mismatch as the Eagles are 3-1 on the season while the Red Wolves are 0-4 both SU and ATS. However, Arkansas State has played a much tougher schedule than the Eagles have. Also, this is the Red Wolves conference opener so they are fully aware of the fact that the season is certainly not lost! As for Georgia Southern, even though they are 2-0 in Sun Belt action already, those two victories came over two of the weaker teams in the conference as the Eagles beat South Alabama and Louisiana Monroe who were a combined 7-18 last year. Arkansas State is certainly off to an ugly start this season but they also got off to a poor start last year, 1-3, and then won 8 in a row to wrap up the regular season! The Red Wolves were projected to again be one of the top teams in the Sun Belt Conference and their comeback, in my opinion, starts Wednesday. The line opened up at a -7 for Georgia Southern here and has already moved to a 7.5 in most spots. With the ability to get Arkansas State as a home dog of more than a TD, it definitely is "go time" for me in this match-up. I am well aware of the fact that the Red Wolves just lost to an FCS school, Central Arkansas, in their most recent game but the Bears are actually playing quite well this season and are one of the better teams in their conference. Arkansas State did put up 469 yards against Central Arkansas but they did themselves in with turnovers. The Red Wolves will respond this week and they are 13-3 SU (and 11-5 ATS) in their conference games the past two seasons. The past two seasons Arkansas State has also gone 5-2 SU and ATS in their 7 games against teams with a winning record. The Red Wolves are off of a bye week and they are 8-1 ATS when playing with rest and facing a Sun Belt foe. 8* ARKANSAS STATE Wednesday

Best Bet Shocker - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #196 - 8* USC Trojans (-) vs Arizona State @ 8:30 ET Saturday - You may be surprised to see me calling a fave a shocker but what I mean by this here is that USC is only 1-3 on the season and Arizona State is 4-0 but the "shock value" is here. The surprise is not just that the 1-3 Trojans are favored by double digits over the Sun Devils but the fact that they should easily cover it! USC has played a much tougher schedule by far as Arizona State's schedule has included Northern Arizona and UTSA! The Sun Devils barely got by the Roadrunners as the 4 point win was certainly not impressive. In Arizona State's other two games against FBS foes their defense was ripped for over 600 yards in each game and they allowed an average of 48 points per game! USC is off of a tough loss at Utah last Friday where they gave up a pair of late scores after appearing to be in command of that game. Now they get a chance to redeem themselves against a lesser foe after having faced tough teams like Alabama and Stanford already this season. The Trojans blasted the Sun Devils 42-14 at Arizona State last year but USC still has a measure of revenge here as well. That's because the last time Southern Cal hosted ASU they gave up 3 late TD's in the final 4 minutes (including a Hail Mary on the last play of the game) to lose by 4 points. USC hasn't forgotten about that happening on their home field. The Trojans are on a 7-0 ATS run in regular season action in games where they are off of a game where they allowed 31 points or more. After allowing 31 to Utah last week, Southern Cal bounces back (as usual) this week! 8* USC Saturday night

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #164 - 8* Clemson Tigers (-) vs Louisville Cardinals @ 8 ET Saturday - Clemson was as high as a 3.5 point favorite when this line came out but they now have moved all the way to being a 2 point dog. This is huge movement and has created significant value that certainly shouldn't be shrugged off. The key here is that everyone saw the Cardinals annihilate Florida State on national TV and that has resulted in an inflated perception about Louisville. Certainly the Cardinals should receive their "just due" but the public is a little enamored with them right now. Keep in mind Louisville's other 3 games came against Charlotte, Syracuse, and Marshall. The Thundering Herd didn't even have their starting QB and also returned only 4 starters on defense this season. As for Syracuse and Charlotte, they both rank near the bottom of FBS schools. The point is that Louisville had a great game plan and executed extremely well against the Seminoles but one game should not define an entire team's season and, in this case, the Cards are now on the road and facing a very tough foe. Clemson has won both of the ACC meetings between these schools and also has a rest edge since the Tigers had a Thursday game last week. Clemson dominated the Yellow Jackets and also looked much stronger against Auburn in week one than what the final score (19-13) would lead you to believe. The Tigers only have Boston College on deck and Clemson has gone 6-1 ATS in their game the week before BC as certainly Clemson knows they can leave it all on the field when it's only the Eagles on deck! The Cardinals win over the Noles is keying the value here and keep in mind, FSU has now allowed 34 points or more in all 3 of their games against FBS schools this season. Is the fact that Louisville ripped Florida State as impressive as it originally seemed? I say absolutely not and I say the Cardinals are going to have trouble with a Clemson defense that is allowing only 11 points per game and the Tigers have the veteran leader at QB in this match-up too of course. Look for Tigers head coach Dabo Swinney to take it to Louisville head coach Bobby Petrino a third straight time. 8* CLEMSON Saturday night

Game of the Week - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #126 - 10* Top Play West Virginia Mountaineers (-) vs Kansas State Wildcats @ 3:30 ET Saturday - This line dropped from a 3.5 to a 2.5 Friday and  that makes 3 a "win number" for West Virginia which is a great value here. I am well aware of the fact that Bill Snyder is one helluva coach and that Kansas State has defeated the Mountaineers each of the last four seasons. However, last year West Virginia outgained the Wildcats 447 to 304 and yet lost the game by a single point. The Mountaineers held Kansas State to just 10 of 31 through the air. In the last meeting here, in 2014, West Virginia held the Wildcats to a net of ONE rushing yard on 29 carries yet the Mountaineers still fell just short on the scoreboard. Overall, West Virginia has held the first down edge by 49 to 33 in the last two meetings and yet they lost both games on the scoreboard. The point is that coach Snyder hasn't exactly outsmarted Dana Holgorsen in these last two meetings. It's just been a pair of tough, tight losses for West Virginia despite having some key edges. With that said, this is a quadruple revenge spot for the Mountaineers and they are catching K-State at the ideal time. The Wildcats haven't played a tough opponent in a month and that was a double digit loss at Stanford. That was followed by a bye week for the Cats and then easy match-ups with Florida Atlantic and Missouri State! Look for the Wildcats to have trouble adjusting early on as they finally step back on the field with a formidable foe for the first time in 30 days! The Mountaineers are undefeated on the season and got a hard-fought win over BYU last week that will serve them well for facing a well-coached Kansas State team this week. There is only "so much" that coaching can do for a team and the Wildcats are on a 3-7 skid in Big 12 games their last 10 with an average margin of defeat of 15 points in those 7 losses! West Virginia is on a 5-2 ATS run at Mountaineer Field when they are a home favorite. 10* WEST VIRGINIA Saturday afternoon.

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #157 - 8* Miami Hurricanes (-) @ Georgia Tech @ Noon ET Saturday - We are laying right around a 7 in this game but the set-up is truly ideal for a road rout. Even though the Hurricanes have played an easy schedule thusfar it certainly has helped them to build up confidence under new head coach Mark Richt. The former Georgia coach is, of course, very familiar with the Yellow Jackets and their option attack because the Bulldogs frequently faced Georgia Tech and head coach Paul Johnson. That, in and of itself, is a big edge for Richt but also note that the Hurricanes are off of a bye week AND they faced an option attack, Appalachian State, before the bye. The Canes are catching the Jackets at a good time as GT is still licking their wounds after the absolute beating they took against Clemson last Thursday. Georgia Tech was fortunate to beat Boston College earlier this season and only scored 17 points in that game and just 7 against Clemson last week. Overall the Yellow Jackets are on an ugly 2-11 ATS run and Richt is known for his ATS success in victories. When his team wins, he covers at a 67% rate - 90-45 ATS! Look for the Canes to get the win and look for another Richt cover in the victory! The Hurricanes add to their 6-1 ATS run in games against Georgia Tech. 8* MIAMI early Saturday

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #110 - 8* Washington Huskies (-) vs Stanford Cardinal @ 9 ET Friday - The Cardinal are off of a ridiculous cover against UCLA Saturday as Stanford (-3) actually trailed 13-9 late in the game but they got a TD for a 3 point lead with just 24 seconds to go and then got a fumble return for a TD on the last play of the game to win by 9 points. The shocking cover for the Cardinal means that they are now 3-0 both SU and ATS this season and that is helping to create some line value this week. We can get Washington laying just a field goal at home in this one and the Huskies are 4-0 SU but only 2-2 ATS after Saturday's win in overtime over Arizona. Washington may have got caught peeking ahead to this game but they did have over 500 yards of offense in last week's win. Also, the Huskies have already forced at least 3 turnovers in each of their 4 games this season. As for Stanford, the Cardinal have only forced a total of 4 turnovers in their 3 games this year. Both teams have some solid defensive stats so far this year but the Huskies are averaging 103 more yards per game on offense so far this season. Also, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these teams. Washington has revenge for a 31-14 loss at Stanford last year. The Huskies are on a 17-9 ATS run as a home fave and have gone 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite in conference games. The scheduling situation here certainly favors the Huskies as the Cardinal are playing back to back road games and on a short week while Washington's short week is helped by the fact their playing at home for the 4th time in 5 weeks this season. The Huskies are 5-0 ATS the week before facing the Ducks and they have a trip to Oregon on deck for next week. Stanford is on a 2-4 ATS run in road games with posted total between 42.5 and 45 points and the Cardinal also are only 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games played on turf. Look for the Huskies speed, at home on FieldTurf at Husky Stadium to be the difference-maker in this one. 8* WASHINGTON Friday

SEC Game of the Year - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #363 - 10* Top Play Arkansas Razorbacks (+) vs Texas A & M Aggies in Arlington, Texas @ 9 PM ET Saturday - A match-up of unbeatens and the Aggies are also 3-0 ATS. However, their week one win was over UCLA in overtime. A & M gave up 468 yards in that game. Their 2nd game was against Prairie View so certainly that was a chance for the Aggies to pad their stats. Then, last week, A & M did knock off Auburn but the Tigers had 26 first downs (compared to 19 for the Aggies) and Auburn did amass 236 yards on the ground. Keep in mind that the Aggies are known for struggling against the run and the Razorbacks have outgained them on the ground by a margin of 517 to 202 in the last two meetings between these teams. Texas A & M did prevail in those games but both were decided in overtime. There is exceptional line value here with the Razorbacks as a 6.5 point dog (as of Friday evening) as they are on a 9-1 ATS run when they are off of a game where they scored more than 35 points. Arkansas blasted Texas State 42 to 3 last week. Arky is also on an 11-4-1 ATS run in SEC games including 9-2-1 when they are an underdog in SEC action. The Aggies are on a 4-8-1 ATS run as a fave in SEC action and A & M is 7-17-1 ATS overall against SEC foes. The Aggies are over-rated right now, early in this season, as they have played the weaker schedule compared to Arkansas. Also, this is a  neutral site game and Arkansas is arguably the better team. The Razorbacks defense did return 9 starters from last year's team and they are improved and it looks like head coach Bret Bielema will finally get his revenge against Kevin Sumlin and his Aggies. The Razorbacks are on a 7-1 ATS run in games where they are an underdog in a range of 3.5 to 10 points. Arky is on an 11-4 ATS run against teams with a winning record. Conversely, A & M is on a 3-10 ATS run against teams with a winning record. Look for these trends to continue here. 10* ARKANSAS Saturday

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #384 - 8* Tennessee Volunteers (-) vs Florida Gators @ 3:30 ET Saturday - The Gators have won 11 straight times over the Vols. The opening line on this game saw the odds makers hang an 8 on the Volunteers! Free money, right? The odds makers have lost their minds, right? Hardly! How many times have you seen that happen? That is simply not the case and yet the whole world has jumped on Florida here as this line is down to a 4.5 as of Friday evening. The fact is that there is plenty of good reasoning for the Vols putting an end to the losing streak with the Gators in Saturday's match-up and that is why I have no reservation about laying the very reasonable number now available on the home team in this one. First off, the Gators lost their starting QB last week and his replacement (Austin Appleby) though experienced, has a 2-9 record as a starter in his college career. The Vols have a the huge edge at QB as Joshua Dobbs is a senior who is the perfect guy to play behind a shaky offensive line (admittedly a weakness of the Volunteers). Even though the Gators may get some penetration they have to be very careful because Dobbs is elusive and then he burns teams with his legs or with busted coverage downfield by extending the play. Many forget that last season the Vols were up 27-14 late in the fourth quarter before some "gator magic" helped lead Florida to the win but that game was in the Swamp. It will be a much different story on the road this time around and the key to last season's match-up was that Vols head coach Butch Jones certainly had a good game plan! The 254 rushing yards that Tennessee had was the most that head coach Jim McElwain's Gators allowed all season long. I am well aware of the fact that Florida is off to an amazing start on defense this year but playing a weak schedule so far has certainly helped in that regard. Now the Gators take a big step up in terms of taking on a quality opponent and, unlike last season, the Vols won't blow a fourth quarter two touchdown lead this time around. Look for Gators QB Appleby to drop to 2-10 as a starter in his career. 8* TENNESSEE Saturday

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #387 - 8* Florida State Seminoles (-) @ South Florida Bulls @ Noon ET Saturday - The Noles were completely embarrassed in their 63-20 loss at Louisville last week. The Seminoles gave up 520 yards to the Cardinals in that game. They now face a Bulls team that is a 3-0 both SU and ATS so far this season. However, South Florida also gave up huge yardage last week and that was at Syracuse! The fact is that the Bulls have had a very easy schedule so far this season with games against Towson (FCS school), Northern Illinois (off a multi-OT road loss), and then the Orange last week. By the way, Syracuse lit up the Bulls "vaunted" defense for 549 yards! The point I am making is that the fact that South Florida has allowed 20 points or less in each of their three games this season is certainly something that should have an asterisk by it as they haven't played anywhere close to the schedule that FSU has. Though the Noles week one win over Ole Miss seems like a distant memory, it shouldn't be that way. This is a good Seminoles team that is fired up and that has not lost back to back games in 5 years! That's right, the Noles have not lost consecutive games since 2011. Their current streak (66 games) is only bettered by one team, Oregon (70) in the entire country. That said, I have no qualms about laying the 5 points here as the Seminoles have beaten the Bulls by a combined score of 64 to 31 in their last two meetings and they are fully focused for this opportunity to get back on track after last week's debacle. 8* FLORIDA STATE Saturday

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #305 - 8* TCU Horned Frogs (-) @ SMU Mustangs @ 8 ET Friday - Tough break for SMU with losing their starting QB, a senior, to a season ending knee injury. With Davis out, a freshman has taken over the reins at the QB position and it has certainly been a struggle for Ben Hicks. The young QB was playing high school ball in Waco last fall and, not surprisingly, he has struggled with a low completion rate plus he has thrown way too many picks here at the collegiate level. The Mustangs offense does move the ball well under head coach Chad Morris but the turnovers and mistakes have hurt SMU badly and they now face a TCU team that already saw the Morris offense last year. That spells trouble for the Mustangs and I expect the struggles for freshman QB Hicks to continue. As for the Horned Frogs, their offense can again "roll it up" on an SMU defense that continues to be the weakness of the team. Last year SMU allowed 45.7 points per game to rank near the very bottom of FBS schools. This season, they have been helped so far by facing a weak schedule to start the season with North Texas and Liberty included already this month but, in their one tough test Baylor put up 34 points in the 2nd half against the Mustangs after a rare, sluggish first half for the Bears. TCU is well aware of those first half struggles that Baylor had and the Horned Frogs already had an upset loss this season (against Arkansas). That said, there is no question they are going to bring full effort here for the full sixty minutes in this one! Keep in mind that, even though this is a non-conference match-up, both of these teams are from the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex and that insures that the Horned Frogs, even with a big lead, are not going to take their foot off of the gas in this one. TCU has scored at least 48 points in each of their last three games against SMU and the Mustangs only scored 13 against Baylor earlier this season. I rarely lay big points like this but everything points to a win here by about 5 TDs rather than the 3 TD margin that is the current spread on this one. By the way, TCU is on a perfect 5-0 ATS run in games after facing Iowa State. Also, SMU is just 2-8 ATS their last 10 as a home dog. Also, the road team has covered 6 of the last 9 in this series and the Horned Frogs won't let up here considering this is the Battle for the Iron Skillet. The last time the Mustangs hosted this rivalry game SMU was demolished 56 to 0. Another ugly home loss looms here. 8* TCU Friday

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #303 - 8* Clemson Tigers (-) @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ 7:30 ET Thursday - The last time Clemson visited Georgia Tech they lost 28 to 6 two years ago. That said, even though the Tigers have a big game on deck with Louisville coming up next week, there is no way that Clemson will overlook the Yellow Jackets here. That is bad news for Georgia Tech because, though their 3-0 record looks great, they truly haven't faced anything close to the quality of an opponent like the Tigers this season. Georgia Tech has faced Boston College (1-2 and just lost to Virginia Tech 49-0) and Mercer (an FCS school) and Vanderbilt (1-2 and only win came against Middle Tennessee State). Now the Yellow Jackets take on one of the best teams in the nation and Clemson drilled them 43-24 last year as Georgia Tech was held to their lowest yardage output of the season. The Tigers run defense is allowing only 2.6 yards per carry this season and that will be a key in shutting down the Yellow Jackets triple-option offense which is so heavily focused on the ground game. Clemson held Auburn to a total of only 262 yards in their week one non-covering win. Auburn got a late TD for the backdoor cover but Clemson has now forced 8 turnovers in their first three games and their defense will be a key. Just like last year, the Tigers again give the Yellow Jackets offense a lot of problems and drop Georgia Tech to 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 lined games. The Tigers are on a 17-9-1 ATS run in ACC action and this is their conference opener. Their first ACC game, Georgia Tech's 3-0 start, and past struggles in road games against the Yellow Jackets means a fully focused effort from the road team here. Look for a road rout to be the result. 8* CLEMSON Thursday 

Marquee Showdown - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #192 - 8* Oklahoma Sooners (+) vs Ohio State Buckeyes @ 7:30 ET Saturday - Ohio State is ranked #3 in the country and the Buckeyes have won their first two games this season by a combined score of 125 to 13. Oklahoma is ranked #14 in the nation but what the betting markets remember about them is their ugly season-opening loss against Houston. The Sooners are 0-2 ATS on the season and the Buckeyes are already 2-0 ATS this season. All of the above considered don't you find it curious that this line is only in the "pick'em" range on Ohio State? Exactly! Once again another contrarian play for me as I am going to grab the team that everyone remembers from their poor performance against Houston and I am going to fade the much higher ranked team that has been absolutely dominate so far this season. How can we do this with confidence? For one thing, the Sooners know they can't afford another loss. They have an "us against the world" mentality for this game and OU is hungry to prove they belong with the elite in college football after their disappointing week 1 performance. Keep in mind that the Buckeyes haven't truly been tested yet as they were favored by 4 TD's in each of their first two games. Keep in mind this is an OSU team that returned only 6 starters from last year's team while Oklahoma returned 13 starters from a team that was in the playoffs last year and OU, unlike OSU, certainly has already been tested this season by virtue of that big battle with Houston in Week 1. The Sooners erased some of the opening week disappointment with a 59-17 win over Louisiana Monroe last week but OU knows they need this game Saturday to get back into the national spotlight that they are use to being in. Though the Buckeyes win last week looks great at first glance, Ohio State certainly benefited from 6 Tulsa turnovers in that game. The Buckeyes offense didn't move the ball all that well for long periods of time especially early in the game. That same questionable offense will face a much stiffer test this week in Norman, OK! 8* OKLAHOMA Saturday evening

Blowout Game of the Month - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #186 - 10* Top Play Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-) vs Michigan State Spartans @ 7:30 ET Saturday - Michigan State is ranked HIGHER than Notre Dame and yet the Spartans opened up as MORE than a TD underdog in this game! What does that tell you? Exactly! If you're a contrarian player like I am you are all over the Fighting Irish in this game. There is a reason the line may "look funny" and that's because Michigan State has had many successful seasons in recent years. However, as I stated before the season, the Spartans will be one of the teams I'll be looking to fade this year. Michigan State lost QB Connor Cook and also a ton of other returning starters on both sides of the ball. Even though the D should still be solid for the Spartans (despite losing a lot of starters) their offense is truly being "rebuilt" and they won't have the firepower to keep up with Notre Dame here. The Fighting Irish have already been tested as they had that tough battle with Texas to open up the season. As for the Spartans, they opened up against an FCS team, Furman, and then had a bye week last week. This has done very little to prepare Michigan State for the "onslaught" that this high-powered Notre Dame offense is going to throw at them Saturday. The Irish offense has averaged 33.5 points per game under Brian Kelly the last two seasons and they are already putting up big points this season (and not against FCS schools). The Spartans only beat Furman by 15 points in week one and the Irish didn't allow a TD to Nevada last week until late 4th quarter. It was a much better performance for the defense compared to week one against Texas but, again, the key here is that the Irish are at home and can put up points in a hurry and the Spartans offense just doesn't have the ability to "keep up" in a game like this. Don't be fooled by the line here. The Spartans will be exposed early this season and this is the first such opportunity so it is the right time to jump in. Michigan State is 2-6 ATS in September games the past 2+ seasons. The Irish are on an 11-2 SU run and 9-4 ATS run in home games! 10* NOTRE DAME Saturday evening

TOP Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #168 - 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers (-) vs Oregon Ducks @ 3:30 ET Saturday - Here you have an unranked Cornhuskers team taking on a ranked Ducks team and yet Nebraska is a 3 point favorite over Oregon. Of course this has many bettors flocking to Oregon but truly the odds makers knew what they were doing here. Nebraska is a team on the rise and the Ducks truly aren't the same team they were in recent seasons and yet Oregon remains very popular with bettors. Of course this helps drive value for us in spots like this as I expect Nebraska win this game by double digits. The Huskers have an edge here with head coach Mike Riley formerly coaching at Oregon State. As head man of the Beavers you have to know the Ducks program inside and out and that is an edge here. Cornhuskers QB Armstrong had a huge game last week through the air and Nebraska also delivered a huge game on the ground in the prior week. Certainly I respect the Oregon offense but their defense is very vulnerable and even got gashed by the ground game of Virginia and the Cavaliers certainly aren't known for that. The Huskers have the right personnel and systems to pound on the ground again like Nebraska teams of old but Armstrong also gives them the huge aerial threat that keeps defenses off balance. Note that Oregon had their worst season in a long time with a 9-4 showing last year and their defense allowed 485 yards per game and they now have a new defensive coordinator in Brady Hoke. This is a team that is regressing even though head coach Mark Helfrich is in his fourth year here. They just don't have the same talent level they had in the Chip Kelly years and they lost a ton of starters from last year's team. Conversely, Nebraska returned most of their starters from last year and, after a down year last year, they are poised to bounce back and have already covered each of their first two games while the Ducks are already 0-2 ATS. 10* NEBRASKA Saturday afternoon.

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #174 - 8* Oklahoma State Cowboys (-) vs Pittsburgh Panthers @ 3:30 ET - After the gut-wrenching loss to Central Michigan last week, Oklahoma State is fired up for this one. The Cowboys also benefit from catching Pittsburgh off of an emotional win over in-state rival Penn State as the Panthers renewed their rivalry with the Nittany Lions last week. Pitt has their ACC opener on deck and, even though OSU has their Big 12 opener on the deck, the travel situation strongly favors the Cowboys here. Oklahoma State is playing their third straight home game while the Panthers are making an unusual road trip to Big Twelve country. It is the first time Pittsburgh has played on the road against a Big 12 team since they traveled to Nebraska in 2005. The Cowboys returned the majority of their starters from last season's team so they have a veteran group that is ready to respond appropriately at home in Stillwater, OK after last week's unreal finish that handed them a tough loss. Look for the Cowboys to improve to 10-5 as a home fave in a range of 3.5 to 10 points while dropping the Panthers to 3-9 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games. 8* OKLAHOMA STATE Saturday

Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #106 - 8* Rice Owls (+) vs Baylor Bears @ 8 ET Friday - Rice certainly fits the definition of "ugly dog" in this match-up but, simply put, the points being offered here are quite generous when you consider all the factors in this match-up. Keep in mind that, like the Owls, the Bears are also 0-2 ATS this season. They continue to be overvalued and truly, are not playing as well under interim coach Jim Grobe in comparison with the pre-scandal days. The Baylor program has certainly been impacted and this is their first road game of the season while also being Rice's first home game and the Owls made some significant upgrades to their facility that were completed this summer and Rice has been looking forward to this game with great anticipation. Bears interim head coach Grobe, after back to back ATS losses to start this season, is on a 1-13 ATS run as a non-conference favorite of 7 points or more. Though he and the Bears may win this big, I don't see them covering the current number of 31.5 points. Last week Baylor was tied at the half with SMU as penalties also have hurt the Bears early this season. This Bears team has quite a bit of inexperience and immaturity that has impacted them and I foresee another non-covering win here for Baylor. Grobe has no reason to run up the score on head coach David Bailiff and the Owls but don't be surprised if this one is much closer than many would expect. Rice had an awful season on defense last year but they returned most of those starters. Facing Western Kentucky's fantastic passing attack and Army's dominating ground game (both games on the road) back to back is a tough way to start the season. Now, at home, and playing with revenge from a 70-17 beating at Baylor last year, the Owls will be hungry for a huge performance at Rice Stadium in Houston. If Art Briles (gone after the scandal) was still the coach at Baylor this one might play out differently. But under coach Grobe (and with the team having been impacted by the off-season issues) this game is unlikely to be decided by more than three TDs. Grobe teams just don't have a knack for running up huge scores and, keep in mind, their big win in week one was against a clearly over-matched FCS team, Northwestern State. Rice is on par with the SMU team that Baylor struggled with through the first half last week and, keep in mind, that game was in Waco. The Owls keep this one respectable in their home opener. 8* RICE OWLS Friday

Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #373 - Non-Conf Game of the Year - 10* Top Play North Carolina Tar Heels -7.5 @ Illinois @ 7:30 ET Saturday - North Carolina put up quite a battle at Georgia last week but, after leading 24-14, the Tar Heels then allowed the final 19 points of the game to the Bulldogs. I had Georgia last week and was not surprised by the end result. However, what did surprise me is that, even though Heels starting QB Trubisky struggled some, the Tar Heels truly battled hard against a quality opponent and they now take a big step down in class as they face Illinois. Of course the Illini are now led by head coach Lovie Smith who had spent many years in the NFL. While I have plenty of respect for Mr. Smith it is going to take awhile for him to build this team in the way he wants. Illinois is off of an impressive win in Week 1 but that came against an over-matched Murray State team. Also, the Illini certainly were also helped by a turnover factor of 3-0 in favor of Illinois. The line on this Week 2 game opened up at a 10. Of course the betting markets see a road fave of double digits that ended up blowing their game at Georgia and they see an Illinois team off of a 52-3 win and now a home dog and we all see what then happens to this line. As of Friday afternoon it is down to a 7.5 and though I'd like to have a 7 here it is "go time" for me with this one. While the Illini may be feeling a little too good about themselves after last week's dominating win the Tar Heels come into this game very hungry for a win and they only have James Madison on deck. They blasted Illinois 48-14 last season but coach Larry Fedora has his troops ready for this one and certainly has warned his team that this will be a different Illini team with Lovie Smith at the helm. The problem for Lovie is he returns only 9 starters from last year's team and they are projected to be among the bottom feeders in the Big Ten while the Tar Heels are expected to finish near the top of the ACC. The Illini only returned one starter from their back seven on defense this season and they're trying to stop a UNC offense that ranked 2nd in the ACC and 18th in the nation last year with 487 yards per game. As you can see, this should prove to be a road rout! 10* North Carolina -7.5 Saturday evening

Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #337 - Contrarian Cashout - 8* Northern Illinois Huskies +15.5 @ South Florida Bulls @ 7 ET Saturday - The Bulls have been a popular choice. this week. They are a solid team but to rise from a 12 to all the way about a two TD spread here is a little much. I am certainly well aware of the fact that the Huskies had a very late game at Wyoming last week for more reasons than one. Not only was the game time pushed back by bad weather in the area but also it ended up being a triple-overtime thriller. While certainly a game like this that ends (literally) the next morning can be impacting to a team, lets keep in mind a few key points here. One, the Huskies lost the game and are very focused on getting into the win column this week. Two, it is very early in the season (of course) and so this type of effort (while certainly a significant effort) is not going to leave a team totally spent in what will now be just their 2nd game of the season. The Huskies are hungry and they're focused and it also doesn't hurt that this is an evening game Saturday. Much better than had it been a Noon ET start (11 AM on UNI body clocks). Another positive factor here is that Northern Illinois was only an 8-5 team in the regular season last year but they did reach double digits in victories each of the FIVE prior seasons. Yes, they are "only" a MAC team but this is a team that is use to winning. Also, last year they did beat Toledo (a 10-2 team) and their losses to Boston College and Ohio State came by only a combined 10 points! South Florida played "only" an FCS team last week and also running back Marlon Mack is not 100%. Additionally, the Bulls are now the hunted and this is not a role they are use to being in. A lot of points being laid here for a USF team on a 6-14 ATS run as a home favorite. Note that the Huskies are on a 15-4 ATS run as an away dog. I'll grab the big points with a solid QB (Hare back from injury) leading the way in what should be a much closer game than odds makers are calling for. 8* Northern Illinois Saturday evening

Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #340 - Daytime Dominator - 8* Duke Blue Devils -5 vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ 3:30 ET Saturday - Both teams are off of season opening wins but while Wake Forest struggled against a Tulane team that has won 3 games or less in 4 of the last 5 years, Duke absolutely blew out their opponent. Granted it was an FCS shool but NC Central was no match for the Blue Devils and allows them to build up confidence heading into this match-up with the Demon Deacons. In last year's meeting Duke never trailed the entire way and they are now 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings with 5 straight SU Blue Devils victories. Wake Forest used two quarterbacks in last week's game against Tulane and neither played well as evidenced by the Demon Deacons ending up with a yardage deficit of 280 to 175 versus the Green Wave. Duke did not fare well ATS as a home favorite last season but they had gone 12-3 as a home fave in the three prior seasons so, as you can see, they have generally fared very well in this role. The Demon Deacons are on an ugly 14-24 ATS run as a road dog. Also, Wake Forest's first road game the last 7 years has seen them lose every single not only straight-up but also ATS. 8* Duke Saturday afternoon.

Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #212 - ESPN Smash Pass - 8* Florida State Seminoles (-) vs Ole Miss Rebels @ 8 ET Monday - The Seminoles simply return too much talent in comparison with the Rebels. While Florida State returns nearly their entire offense from last season and much of a solid defensive unit as well, Ole Miss returns very little especially on the offensive side of the ball. Yes they have their ultra talented QB back and certainly have a huge experience edge at the QB position. However, the Rebels are essentially rebuilding their offense (other than the QB spot) and their rebuilding process on the offensive line is bad news when you're facing a Seminoles defense that has an extremely talented and veteran defensive line. Look for this to be a mismatch in the trenches and that should help lead the Noles to a solid win by a comfortable margin in this one. The Seminoles not only essentially have home field edge here with this "neutral site game" being played in Orlando, they also have the hunger factor working in their favor. Both of these teams went into their bowl games last year as a 7.5 point favorite. While the Rebels won theirs by 4 TDs the Noles lost theirs by 2 TDs. FSU has been anxious to get back on the field ever since and I expect the Seminoles to roll through the Rebels like a buzzsaw in this one. Though the Noles have a redshirt freshman QB he is ultra-talented and the Seminoles are also loaded at the other skill positions including phenomenal running back Dalvin Cook and wide receiver Travis Rudolph. 8* FLORIDA STATE Monday night

Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #206 - Game of the Month - 10* Top Play Arizona Wildcats +2.5 vs Brigham Young Cougars @ 10:30 PM ET Saturday - Tremendous line move here as the Wildcats have gone all the way from being 2.5 point faves to being 2.5 point dogs in this match-up. I do understand what many are looking at here. BYU is a veteran team and has the much better defense in comparing numbers with that of Arizona. Also, the Cougars "veteran" team is defined by a lot of returning starters on the offensive side of the ball including a big, experienced offensive line. This is viewed as a mismatch going against the smallish defensive line of the Wildcats. However, here are the keys that combat all this. Speedy linemen have a way of shooting the gaps when facing bigger opposition and speed kills. Arizona's defensive line may surprise with how they perform in this game. Additionally, Rich Rodriguez is in his fifth year as the head coach at Arizona while Kalani Sitake is not only in his first year as BYU's head coach, it is the first year he's been a head coach anywhere. Additionally, being an independent means the Cougars don't have conference games to look forward to. What motivates a team like this is a game like exactly what they have on deck next week. Brigham Young has a huge revenge match-up in their "Holy War" battle at Utah. The Cougars were absolutely embarrassed in last year's 35-28 bowl loss to the Utes in which BYU was down 35-0 in the first quarter. They can't help but have their sights set on that upcoming big-game match-up next week especially since the Cougars have now lost five straight to Utah! Arizona will have the home field edge (though this game is being played at the University of Phoenix Stadium) and the Wildcats are a Pac 12 offensive juggernaut. The Cats averaged 37 points per game last season and BYU (already peeking ahead to the Utes revenge game) simply is not going to be able to keep up in this one. Look for Rodriguez to outcoach Sitake in the latter's head coaching debut. 10* ARIZONA late Saturday night

Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #196 - ESPN Smash Pass - 8* Georgia Bulldogs -3 vs North Carolina Tar Heels @ 5:30 PM ET Saturday - Two quality teams in this match-up but considering the short line and the SEC vs ACC angle, there is great line value with a Bulldogs team that is also accustomed to playing in the Georgia Dome. This is truly not a "neutral site" game as the venue favors Georgia in a big way. The Bulldogs have a big edge on defense as North Carolina ranked much worse on yardage allowed than points allowed per game last season. In other words, the Tar Heels were fortunate and that defense now has to put up with the battering ram that is Nick Chubb and the powerful Bulldogs ground game. North Carolina got torched by teams with solid rushing attacks last season and this does not bode well for their opening game this season. The Bulldogs have a new head coach and he wants to get off of on the right foot. The Tar Heels have Fedora who is in his 5th year at North Carolina. Last year UNC lost their opener to South Carolina and they face a much tougher SEC opponent this time around. A big key here is that the Bulldogs are 29-7 SU and 25-10-1 in their last 36 games against ACC competition. The past two seasons Georgia went 7-3 ATS in non-conference action while North Carolina went 3-7 ATS in non-conference action. Two high-quality programs but SEC continues to hold the upper hand and the Tar Heels have lost 4 straight games (including 0-4 ATS) played on neutral sites. New Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart was the DC at Alabama the past 9 seasons and he played at Georgia for 4 years in the late 90's. It's a new era beginning post-Mark Richt and the Bulldogs led the SEC in pass defense last year and returned all the starters from their secondary. The Tar Heels have had some big offensive production highlight their reason campaigns but they don't have the defense to hang tough in this one. The Bulldogs have the superior defense. The Heels improved with defensive coordinator Gene Chizik last season but the way they fell off late in the season all the way through to their bowl game was quite alarming. Great line value on the more "settled" team here. 8* GEORGIA Saturday evening

Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #160 - High Noon Top Blowout - 10* Top Play Northwestern Wildcats -4.5 vs Western Michigan Broncos @ Noon ET Saturday - You can tell by the line movement on this game (downward) that many are looking at the Broncos as an underdog in this early Saturday match-up. I completely respect Western Michigan as a MAC team but that is the key to the equation surrounding my big play on Northwestern in this match-up. The Wildcats are a Big Ten team that went 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in their non-conference games last year. Note that the Broncos went just 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS outside of the MAC last season. I am well aware of the fact that Western Michigan has gone bowling each of the last two years and has been a team on the rise in the MAC. However, the last time they played Northwestern they got rolled by a 3 TD margin and the Wildcats have won 8 of their last 9 home openers. With this line moving down there is even more value on Northwestern here as we laying a rather small number against a team from an inferior conference. Remember last year the Wildcats home opener featured an upset win over Stanford. Even though Western Michigan is no Stanford (in terms of motivation for a big win) there is no way that the Wildcats will overlook the Broncos as Northwestern has Illinois State on deck. That means there is definitely no lookahead factor here. The Wildcats were very strong on defense last year and return 6 starters from that D which gives them a huge edge in comparing the defensive capabilities of these two teams. Northwestern allowed only 16 points per game last year while Western Michigan allowed 28 points per game. Over the last 25 years the Broncos are 3-26 SU against Big Ten teams. Over this same period, the Wildcats are 12-5 SU against MAC teams. Big difference in terms of the level of competition and I feel this is a very reasonable line on the superior team whom also has the home field edge. Lay it. 10* NORTHWESTERN early Saturday. 

Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #154 - Breakfast Bash - 8* Boston College Eagles +3 vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (game played in Ireland) @ 7:30 AM ET Saturday - One of the big advantages that the Yellow Jackets generally have over their opponents is that they don't have a lot of time to prep for the option. Of course that is not the case when it comes to this season opening game against Boston College. The Eagles have had plenty of time to get ready for the option attack of Georgia Tech. On top of that, Boston College had one of the top defenses in the nation last year and the Eagles return 15 starters this season while the Yellow Jackets are returning only 11 starters. Boston College ranks a big edge when you compare these two defenses and also ranks an edge in terms of the all-important experience factor that is so critical especially early in the season. The Yellow Jackets have made it easy on themselves in recent years by not scheduling FBS opposition to open the season. That changes this year with not only facing an FBS school but facing one of the teams with the best defenses in the country (particularly against the run) and facing them in Ireland on top of all that! The last time the Jackets faced an FBS school to open up a season they were held to just 17 points. The Eagles allowed only 15 points per game last season. The Yellow Jackets allowed 26 points per game last season. The Boston College offense is sure to show some improvement and facing a defense that is only returning 5 starters from last season certainly helps in that regard. 8* BOSTON COLLEGE early Saturday morning.

Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #150 - ESPN Game of the Week - 8* Colorado Buffaloes -8 vs Colorado State Rams @ 8 ET Friday - In a rivalry game it is often enticing to grab the points with the underdog. In fact, the dog in this series is 13-6-1 ATS. However, prior to last year's OT win for the Buffaloes, 5 of the 7 prior meetings had been decided by a margin of at least 14 points. I expect another lopsided win in this year's match-up between these fierce rivals as Colorado simply has a huge edge in experience and the Rams have major concerns on defense. While the Buffs return 18 starters from last year, Colorado State only returns 10 starters. Particularly concerning for the Rams is that they lost their defensive coordinator from last year and they also lost all the starters from the defensive line and some of their best players in the secondary as well. CSU is likely to struggle in the trenches early this season and also will be susceptible to blown coverages downfield. In other words, the Rams are in trouble as they are unlikely to stop either the run game or the passing attack of a Pac 12 Buffaloes team that went 3-1 in non-conference action last season and averaged 38 points per game. Colorado is very experienced on the defensive side of the ball and coordinator Jim Leavitt is now in his 2nd season with the program and he has more experienced personnel to work with this season. Leavitt's blitz packages and the "stunts" will keep the Rams offense from getting comfortable in this one. This game is being played in Denver where the Buffaloes have won 6 of the last 8 with an average margin of victory of 13 points. Look for the Rams to drop to 1-4 ATS a neutral field underdog of 7.5 to 10 points. 8* COLORADO Friday

Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play TCU Horned Frogs +7 vs Oregon @ 6:45 ET - Of course everyone by now has heard of the suspension of TCU starting QB Trevone Boykin due to his late night drunken antics here in San Antonio just a few nights before the bowl game. While this has resulted in an incredible line move in favor of Oregon, it has in turn opened up fantastic line value on the Horned Frogs. I look for Texas Christian University to rally around the fact that Boykin and WR Josh Doctson (injury) are out for this game. What the market is failing to adjust for properly here is the fact that the Frogs do have a senior QB back-up ready to go for this game. When Boykin was out for the game against the Sooners earlier this season, senior QB Bram Kohlhausen did not get the start because his father had just passed away. However, Kohlhausen did end up playing in relief in that game and very nearly rallied the Horned Frogs back for the comeback win over Oklahoma. Look for the Horned Frogs to rally around Kohlhausen in this game and everyone Horned Frog player is likely to step up their game and their intensity level as they respond to the Boykin suspension. The Horned Frogs have the much better defense in this match-up. TCU allowed 21 points or less in 7 of their 12 games this season. Conversely, the over-rated Ducks allowed at least 28 points in 10 of their 12 games this season. Oregon's D is allowing nearly 100 yards more and 10 points more than the Horned Frogs. That plus the site location favoring TCU and the ability to get a full TD now with a dangerous underdog has me siding with the Horned Frogs in a BIG way on Saturday. Don't be surprised if this turns into a huge upset win for TCU but I am certainly grabbing the generous points. 

Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play Stanford Cardinal -6 vs Iowa @ 5 ET - Iowa narrowly missed an undefeated season but they were so fortunate overall. The Hawkeyes regular season schedule was kind as they avoided the Buckeyes, Spartans, and Wolverines. This helped Iowa to enjoy a big season until they ran into Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship and the Spartans put an end to their unbeaten season. Not only did this end the Hawkeyes chances at gunning for the National Championship, it also exposed their weaknesses as Iowa was outgained by nearly 100 yards by the Spartans. Yes, that's the same Spartans team that lost 38-0 to Alabama yesterday. In other words, Iowa may have trouble remaining competitive in this game against the Cardinal. Stanford comes into this game with an 11-2 mark on the season and, unlike Iowa, the Cardinal are coming into this game off of a win. Stanford knocked off Notre Dame this season and USC (twice) including in the Pac 12 Title game which Stanford took over the Trojans in dominating fashion with a 41-22 win. The Hawkeyes just don't have the offense to keep up here. Stanford, after a disappointing 16-6 loss to open up their season, averaged 40 points per game the rest of the season and the Cardinal scored at least 30 points in every single game! By comparison, Iowa was held to 31 points or less in 8 of their 13 games and only once did they score more than 40. Keep in mind Stanford AVERAGED 40. The powerful Cardinal have edges across the board on offense and they also have the special teams edge and played the tougher schedule in comparison with Iowa. Combining all these factors with the Hawkeyes suffering "unbeaten letdown" with the loss to the Spartans in the Big Ten Championship and you have the perfect spot for a blowout rout for Stanford who get the added benefit of playing this game in their home state.

Rickenbach BOWL *8* Ohio State Buckeyes -6 vs Notre Dame @ 1 ET - Ohio State certainly was disappointed that they were unable to make it to the playoffs. Notre Dame has only two losses on the year and those each came by a margin of just two points. That said, how can the Buckeyes by favored by nearly a TD here? Think about that for a minute...exactly! The reason is because Ohio State should roll here. Don't fall for the trap with this line. Ohio State already proved they would bounce back off of a disappointing situation when they blasted Michigan by 29 points after suffering the heart-breaking 3 point loss to Michigan State the prior week. The Buckeyes now will be out to prove that they did belong in the playoffs and so they will show no mercy against an over-matched Notre Dame team here. Keep in mind, all the Buckeyes wins this season came by at least 7 points. Even though the Fighting Irish have played well this season they did allow at least 24 points in 7 of their last 11 games. To put that in to perspective in terms of comparison with the Buckeyes, note that Ohio State allowed 17 points or less in 9 of their last 11 games. Of course a 24-17 Buckeyes final score gets the job done here but I am expecting an even bigger margin than that. Ohio State not only has the superior defense in this match-up, the Buckeyes also have averaged 40 points per bowl game under coach Urban Meyer. Combining his 3 bowls with Ohio State with his prior history, coach Meyer is 9-2 SU and ATS in bowl games. He also has 3 national titles! The Irish offense won't be able to do enough damage against this powerful Buckeyes defense to keep in this game. That turns this into an Ohio State rout!

Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play Alabama Crimson Tide -10 vs Michigan State @ 8 ET - This is a traditional "trap line" game and that's why I am unloading on the Crimson Tide here. It is a match-up of 12-1 teams and therefore many feel that Alabama certainly should not be a double digit fave against such a strong Big Ten foe. This is especially true since this SEC powerhouse lost last year to Ohio State in the Bowls as an 8 point favorite! However, the reasons above are precisely the reason you want to back Alabama here. The line is fooling the general public. The Crimson Tide are seeking to atone for last year's Sugar Bowl loss to he Buckeyes that kept Alabama out of the national championship game. Let's also not forget that Michigan State beat Oregon even though they were outgained by over 100 yards. Also, the Spartans beat Ohio State and Michigan on last second plays as Michigan State never held the lead in either one of those games and yet one each on the final play. They also beat Iowa on a TD with less than 30 seconds left in the game. They have led a 'charmed life' to say the least so far this season and I expect Alabama to dominate here. The Crimson Tide have seen 11 of their 12 victories this season come by a margin of at least 13 points. Alabama has allowed an average of just 12 points per game in their 12 wins. As solid as Michigan State's defense is, the Spartans allowed at least 21 points in 8 of their first 9 games this season. Look for the powerful Crimson Tide to impose their will here. Look for Alabama head coach Nick Saban to make the most of his first ever match-up with his old school as he was the head coach at MSU for 5 years in the last 90's. Lay the points as Alabama does what it's been doing all season long. Dominate on defense and win the game by a double digit margin!

Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play Clemson Tigers +4 vs Oklahoma @ 4 ET - Certainly I have a lot of respect for Oklahoma but the Sooners have overachieved this season. OU was fortunate that their match-ups with Baylor, TCU, and Oklahoma State featured major issues for their opponents at the QB position. Certainly QB injuries in the Big 12 (but Sooners QB Baker Mayfield staying healthy) helped Oklahoma reach the top spot. As I stated above, I certainly do respect the Sooners but the point of all this above is that I do question them being a 4 point favorite over an undefeated Clemson team. The Tigers are 13-0 on the season but certainly are getting no respect here as they opened up as a 3 point dog and now this line is up to a solid 4 points on this game. Clemson QB Deshaun Watson gives the Tigers a dual threat option and is the better talent at the QB position (especially from a dual threat perspective) although Mayfield has thrived this season in the "Air Raid offense" installed by offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley. The Sooners are running into a very tough pass defense here and the Tigers defense, overall, allowed just 17 points per game before they let up some late in the season. That let-up was inevitable after they knocked off Florida State and then were a huge favorite in the rest of their regular season games until they ran into North Carolina in the ACC title game. Even though the Tigers only beat the Tar Heels by 8 they did outgain them by 226 yards in the game. To summarize, the potent Tigers just aren't being given the respect they deserve here and Clemson is highly motivated by virtue of being ranked #1 and yet being installed as an underdog here. They will play extremely hard with a chip on their shoulder throughout the game as the Tigers look to scratch and claw their way to the national championship game. 

Rickenbach BOWL *8* Houston Cougars +7 vs Florida State @ Noon ET - The Seminoles will be the popular choice here as an ACC team while the Cougars come in from the less highly regarded AAC. The fact is that this venue and the situation both strongly favor Houston. Florida State can't be too excited about this match-up after last year playing in the Rose Bowl in a Playoff Semi-Final. After an ugly loss to the Ducks in that game, the Noles were hoping for a big push this season and giving themselves another shot at a national championship. With that scenario not working out for the 10-2 Seminoles, look for them to struggle to match the intensity and motivation edges that 12-1 Houston brings into this game. The Cougars have the big advantages in those categories as well as at the QB position. On the fast track in a dome setting, look for QB Greg Ward to have an absolutely monster game here. Houston averaged 40.6 points per game this season and they roll into this match-up with plenty of momentum after getting a big win in the AAC Championship Game. Florida State comes into this game with disappointment as they lost 2 of their last 5 ACC games and the Noles certainly had higher hopes than facing the Houston Cougars to end the season. Motivation goes a long way in a game like this and the Cougars have the potent offense to give the Seminoles all sorts of trouble in this one. 

Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play Wisconsin Badgers +3.5 vs USC @ 10:30 ET - The Trojans certainly have the eye-catching talent on the offensive side of the ball. However, defense wins football games and the Badgers had one of the best defensive units in the nation this season. I look for the Badgers to be up to the challenge of shutting down USC's offense. At the same time, USC has already begun cleaning house on the defensive side of the ball but getting rid of five defensive assistants right before a bowl game is unlikely to pay immediate dividends. Look for the Trojans defense to continue to show that it is in a state of flux and that will allow a mediocre Badgers offense to get plenty of points to support a prolific Wisconsin defense that should dominate once again. Keep in mind that USC seemed to struggled every time it was asked to step up against tougher competition this season. The Trojans lost to Stanford (twice!), Oregon, Notre Dame, and also to a mediocre Washington team. Other than the loss to the Huskies, the other four losses came by an average margin of 15 points per game. Conversely, the Badgers went 9-2 after the season-opening loss to Alabama and the two losses came by an average of just five points. Wiscy doesn't get blown out, the Trojans do, and that has me grabbing the available points here with a motivated underdog that is seeking it's 5th win in it's last 7 non-New Year's Day bowls. The Badgers will be ready here. Play Wisconsin +3.5 as a *10* Top Play Wednesday.

Rickenbach BOWL *8* NC State Wolfpack +7 vs Mississippi State @ 3:30 ET - The Bulldogs did not impress in the way the finished up the season and I like the motivated Wolfpack in this spot. Mississippi State lost two of their three final games and allowed an average of 40 points per game in those final three games. NC State also comes into this game having lost two of their last three games but they didn't come into the season with the same big aspirations that Mississippi State had. With that said, the Wolfpack are fired up about this opportunity to take on an SEC foe in the Belk Bowl in their home state. Look for NC State to make the most of it. The Wolfpack saw what happened to Bulldogs QB Dak Prescott when he faced a lot of pressure against Ole Miss in Mississippi State's season finale. That said, you can bet that NC State will have plenty of pressure dialed up for this match-up with Prescott and Company. The Bulldogs defense also took a blow late in the season as they lost two starters from their secondary including lockdown corner Will Redmond. Look for Wolfpack QB Jacoby Brissett (19 TDs against just 4 INTs) to take advantage. Even though NC State lost RB Matthew Dayes to a season ending injury in game 8 of the season, the Wolfpack still have a talented group of running backs fully capable of filling in. The powerful NC State running game will open things up for Brissett to take advantage with throws downfield and I look for the motivated Wolfpack to steal the upset here. If they do fall short it should be by a field goal or less. Play NC State +7 as an *8* selection Wednesday.

Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders +7.5 vs LSU @ 9 ET - LSU entered the season as a title contender but they certainly fell well short of that with an 8-3 record. The Tigers certainly can't be too excited about playing in the Texas Bowl on December 29th when their aspirations heading into the season were certainly much higher than this. With that said, the motivated underdog Red Raiders are the play here. Texas Tech, similar to when they knocked off Arizona State in the 2013 Holiday Bowl, are very excited to be here. There is a strong possibility that the Red Raiders get another outright upset against a stronger foe once again in this bowl match-up. Texas Tech has such a potent offense with QB Patrick Mahomes leading the way that I just don't see LSU getting many defensive stops in this one. Certainly LSU will enjoy some offensive success against the Red Raiders D as the defense of Texas Tech is a weakness. However, RB Leonard Fournette truly finished up the season in disappointing fashion and I don't expect him to be at his best here after not even attending the Heisman Trophy ceremony in New York. On the other side of the ball the Tigers defense faltered as the year went on and they're now facing a Red Raiders team that already knocked off a similar SEC team (Arkansas) in the regular season. Texas Tech is certainly going to give LSU all they can handle here and I will be surprised if the Tigers can even answer the Red Raiders score for score in this one. Grab the highly motivated, ultra dangerous underdog in this one. 

Rickenbach BOWL *8* Colorado State Rams -3 vs Nevada @ 7:30 ET - The Rams are looking to atone for last year's ugly 45-10 bowl loss against Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl. Colorado State comes into this bowl match-up on a big roll as they have won four straight games and the average margin of victory was 11 points per game. The Wolf Pack come into this game heading the opposite direction as they have lost each of their past two games and Nevada allowed 31 points in each. Colorado State has a good history with the Wolf Pack as the Rams have won 11 of the last 13 meetings. Also, Nevada has won just 1 of 8 bowl games in their history. Though both teams have powerful ground-based attacks I look for the Rams to prevail here. CSU averaged 258 rushing yards per game in their last 4 games and Nevada was out-gained on the ground by a 320 to 35 mark in their season finale against San Diego State. The Wolf Pack do want to avoid a losing season but the Rams are the hotter team and you can bet that head coach Bobo has his team fired up for his first bowl game as a head coach. Colorado State is very hungry here and has the intensity I like to see from a team heading into a bowl game.

Rickenbach BOWL *8* California Golden Bears -6.5 vs Air Force @ 2 ET - I realize that, overall, Cal's defense was a weakness this season. However, they did defeat San Diego State 31 to 7 early this season and that is an Aztecs team that runs the ball very well. Air Force lost to that same San Diego State team in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game by a 27-24 final. California's defense will stack the line with eight men in the box to slow down the option attack of Air Force. As for when the Golden Bears are on offense, look out! Cal is led by QB Jared Goff and he should enjoy phenomenal success picking apart the weak pass defense of Air Force. California just missed getting to a bowl last season and that gives them even more motivation to take care of business in the Armed Forces Bowl Tuesday. With the Golden Bears able to focus on shutting down the running attack of the Falcons, look for Cal's more balanced offensive attack to be the difference in this match-up as Air Force only averages about 12 pass attempts per game. The Falcons offense simply won't be able to keep up with a Cal offense that produced 41 points per game in their last 3 games of the season. 

Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers +6.5 vs UCLA @ 9:15 ET Saturday -  Why is an 8-4 team favored by less than a TD against a 5-7 team? Precisely! Don't be fooled by this line. It's actually a great value to be able to play the Huskers here with this line at more than field goal. Nebraska battled hard and suffered many tight losses this season. That is helping to create line value here as, based on playing a tough schedule and suffering some tight beats, this line is much higher than it should be. 5 of Nebraska's 7 losses this season came by 5 points or less. The Cornhuskers did not have a single loss by more than 10 points and the average margin of defeat in their 7 losses was 4.7 points per defeat! The Huskers did fall short against Iowa in their regular season finale but Nebraska outgained the Hawkeyes by a 433 to 250 margin. The Huskers also had the big upset of Michigan State this season and I can't see the Bruins being too excited about this game as they are still lamenting their loss by a 40-21 loss to USC that wrapped up their regular season. Remember that UCLA even had national title aspirations coming into this season. Now their bowl game is the day after Christmas. The Bruins aren't nearly as excited as the Cornhuskers are to be here. Play Nebraska +6.5 as a *10* Top Play Saturday. 

Rickenbach BOWL *8* Washington Huskies -8 vs Southern Miss @ 2:20 ET Saturday - Why is a 6-6 team favored by more than a TD against a 9-4 team? Precisely! Don't be fooled by this line. It's actually a great value to be able to play the Huskies here with this line in single digits. Southern Mississippi played an extremely weak schedule, one of the weakest in all of NCAA Division 1 football. The Golden Eagles will be exposed here by a solid Pac-12 team that played a very tough schedule this season. The Huskies are led by head coach Petersen who went 5-2 SU and ATS in his bowl games with Boise State. That said, after losing the Cactus Bowl last year in his first bowl game with the Huskies, Petersen and Company are fired up about getting a big win in their second bowl game! In addition to the huge edge here based on strength of schedule, the Huskies have the vastly superior defense in comparison with Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles are led by head coach Monken and this is his first ever bowl game. The Huskies faced 10 bowl teams this season while Southern Miss faced only 5 and the Golden Eagles lost 4 of those 5 game with the average margin of defeat at 16 points per loss. Another double digit loss looms here! Play Washington -8 as an *8* selection Saturday.

Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play Cincinnati Bearcats +3.5 vs San Diego State @ 8 ET Thursday - Both teams are missing their starting QB but the Bearcats are in much better shape with Hayden Moore at QB in comparison with San Diego State forced to go with Christian Chapman at QB. The Aztecs QB only had 38 pass attempts this season in comparison with 194 for Moore. The Bearcats have had trouble stopping the run this season but when that can be your focus (because you know you're facing a weak or injury-impacted offense) it does make a big difference. The Bearcats have good size on their defensive line and they won't just be run over by the Aztecs ground game. Look for Cincinnati to put 8 men in the box and to challenge a very inexperienced QB to try and beat them through the air. Cincy is a very talented team overall and, while their 7-5 record may not be overly impressive they did play a much tougher schedule than the 10-3 Aztecs. I also love fading the big line move here as it's moved by nearly a full TD. This is offering exceptional line value to an under-rated Cincinnati team that has a passing attack that is tough to stop and that is true even with Moore at the controls. San Diego State coach Long has a 2-7 bowl record while Bearcats coach Tuberville has a 7-5 record in bowls. Play Cincinnati plus the points as a *10* Top Play Thursday.

Rickenbach BOWL *8* Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders +4.5 vs Western Michigan @ Noon ET Thursday - The MAC teams started off red hot in the bowls but may have shown their true colors yesterday as both Northern Illinois and Bowling Green got blasted in bowl action. That doesn't bode well for what can be expected from a Western Michigan team that came into the season with many not expecting the Broncos to reach a bowl. The defense of Western Michigan was expected to be the weakness and still is truly an area of concern entering this game. Though the Broncos come into this game off of a big season-ending win over Toledo, it did seem the Rockets (9-1 at the time) truly overlooked Western Michigan (6-5 at the time) in that game. Middle Tennessee State certainly is not going to overlook the Broncos as the Blue Raiders are excited to be in this bowl. They did not make a bowl last season despite being eligible and this has the Blue Raiders playing with some extra motivation and hunger in this game. Western Michigan was invited to a bowl last season and they lost to Air Force by two TDs as the Broncos have now lost all four bowl games they've been in the past ten seasons. Before Western Michigan's surprising season-ending win over Toledo they had lost two straight. Conversely, the Blue Raiders wrapped up their season with four straight wins (and averaging over 300 passing yards per game in the victories) and definitely come into this bowl game riding a huge wave of momentum. Play Middle Tennessee State plus the points as an *8* selection Thursday.

Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play Bowling Green -7 vs Georgia Southern @ 8 PM ET - The MAC enters the December 23rd action with a perfect 3-0 ATS mark so far in the bowls. Not only is the MAC rolling so far but the situation with GODADDY BOWL looks particularly strong as Bowling Green is only laying a TD and yet they are facing a team from the weaker SunBelt Conference. Georgia Southern certainly deserves credit for a solid regular season and they did amass an 8-4 ATS mark on the year. However, they faced a much weaker schedule than did the Falcons and Bowling Green went 9-3-1 ATS on the year. The Eagles run the triple option on offense and though that can be a difficult offense to defend against it does mean that pass defense is nearly completely taken out of the equation. Also, coming from the MAC, the Falcons certainly have faced plenty of tough running attacks and the extra time off before the bowl game helps Bowling Green to be fully prepared for what Georgia Southern's offense is going to throw at them. The Falcons had back to back strong performances on defense to wrap up the regular season and that also boosts their confidence for facing the Eagles attack. Conversely, Georgia Southern's defense got ripped for nearly 500 yards in their ugly 34-7 loss to Georgia State in their season finale. The Falcons potent offensive attack (561 yards per game!) will be too much for the Eagles to keep up with. Play Bowling Green -7 as a *10* Top Play Wednesday.

Rickenbach BOWL *8* Northern Illinois +8.5 vs Boise State @ 4:30 PM ET - Northern Illinois lost starting QB Drew Hare but 2nd stringer Ryan Graham has been practicing with the first team offense and looks ready to go for this game. MAC teams have performed very well so far this bowl season and I expect that to continue Wednesday. Can't see the Broncos as being too excited about this match-up. They were playing in the Fiesta Bowl on New Year's Eve last year. Now Boise State is in the Poinsettia Bowl two days before Christmas. Play the motivated dog here as the Huskies powerful ground game will make a big difference in this one. Look for MAC teams to improve to 4-0 ATS so far in this bowl season. Play Northern Illinois +8.5 as an *8* selection Wednesday.

Rickenbach BOWL *10* Top Play Temple Owls -2.5 vs Toledo @ 7 ET - Temple has the vastly superior defense in comparison with Toledo. The Owls only allowed 329.5 yards per game this season. Additionally, the Owls have been very strong against the pass with only 203.3 passing yards allowed per game. Besides the defensive edge for Temple in this one there is also a large coaching edge. That's because the Rockets former head coach, Campbell, took the job at ISU and that mean that the offensive coordinator, Candle, is taking over the head coaching reins for this bowl game. Not only is this his first ever bowl game, it actually is his first game as a head coach ever. This coaching situation is certainly going to be impacting to Toledo as is the way they wrapped up the season. The Rockets were in control of their own destiny but lost AT HOME to Western Michigan and that prevented Toledo from making it to the MAC Championship Game. The disappointment of that sour ending to the season coupled with the questionable coaching situation for this game is putting Toledo at a significant disadvantage entering this game. Temple is a veteran team that entered the season loaded with returning starters and with plenty of seniors on the roster. These guys want to end their college careers the right way and this Owls team has impressed me throughout this season and I look for them to go out on top here. Play Temple -2.5 as an *8* selection Tuesday.