Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #309 Friday 8* Washington State Cougars (+) @ USC Trojans @ 10:30 ET - The whole world seems to be lining up on the Trojans here and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am grabbing the value on the other side. The fact is that USC is, of course, seeking revenge here. However, that doesn't make this game any less important to Washington State. For the Cougars, this is their Pac-12 opener this season. Now, I am well aware of the fact that Washington State has played a much weaker schedule than USC has so far this season. However, the Cougars certainly were impressive in their lone "challenging" game thus far as they won by 22 as a 3-point favorite at Wyoming in Week 1. The fact is that Washington State's 3 straight blowout wins (the other two against weak opponents) has served well as a confidence builder for this team. As for the Trojans, they just can't stop the bleeding. That game at Texas should have been "the game" for them as they needed a bounce back effort after Stanford and yet they got pushed around by a Longhorns team that lost at Maryland to open up this season. The point is that there are some internal issues right now with this Trojans team and I am going to challenge them to snap out of it here because I feel they won't. USC continues to have issues on both sides of the ball and, keep in mind, the Cougars win over the Trojans last season was no fluke. Washington State outgained Southern Cal by 135 yards. USC is 0-3 ATS this season while the Cougars are 3-0 ATS. Washington State is on a 5-0 ATS run when they have Utah on deck and that is the case here. USC is on a 3-12 ATS dating back to early last season. Maybe they snap the skid and get a win here but if they do I expect it to be by a field goal or less and I like my chances with the Cougars rolling with confidence right now while USC filling up with self-doubt. The Cougars are a long-term 17-9 ATS as a road dog in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. 8* WASHINGTON STATE

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #210 Saturday 10* Top Play San Diego State Aztecs (+) vs Arizona State Sun Devils @ 10:30 ET - The Sun Devils rallied for a home win against Michigan State last week. As a result, Arizona State was able to sneak by a ranked Spartans team even thought they allowed nearly 400 yards in that game. Now the Sun Devils are on the road for the first time this season and facing arguably their toughest challenge yet (first away game and hosted weak UTSA team in Week 1) and yet ASU is favored by nearly a full TD here. The markets are not grading this team properly. Head coach Herm Edwards was considered by many to be the most questionable (and possibly worst) off-season hire and now after just two games they're laying nearly a full TD on the road. I just don't see it and yes I am aware of the Aztecs QB being out for this game. Keep in mind San Diego State is a run dominated team. Also, a big key to this play is that Edwards plucked away their defensive coordinator from the Aztecs. Do you think long-time veteran head coach Rocky Long wants this game? This match-up certainly has special importance to him. He has been coaching in some capacity ever since his playing career ended in the mid-70s and he is known as a defensive specialist. He does not want to get out-witted by his pupil (the ASU DC) on the opposite sidelines. This will be Long's 230th games as an NCAA head coach while Aztecs coach Edwards does have NFL coaching experience but will be coaching his first ever road game in college action. I love the home dog here as the running game of the Aztecs and a huge edge with coach Long on our side of this play proving to be keys to victory. It also certainly is important to mention the scheduling situation here heavily favors San Diego State. While the Aztecs are at home and off of an easy win over an FCS team and with a MAC team on deck, the Sun Devils are off of a grueling upset win over a ranked Big Ten team plus they have their PAC-12 opener on deck. I'll gladly grab all the points I can get here. 10* SAN DIEGO STATE

ESPN Smash Pass #1 Side - Rickenbach CFB Game #104 Thursday 8* Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+) vs Boston College Eagles @ 5:30 ET - The road team has dominated this series of late with four straight wins. Also, Boston College is seeking revenge for last year's home loss where they got drilled 34-10 despite the yardage being roughly equal. The Eagles were done in by 4 turnovers in that game. The over-play of the revenge angle in sports is leading to nice value for us here in fading the betting markets. There has been a big push toward Boston College in this one as their line has risen higher early this week. I am happy to fade this because at least the Demon Deacons have faced one semi-tough test this season. Wake Forest was favored by a little shy of a TD in their win at Tulane in Week 1. As for the Eagles, both their games have been at home and they were huge favorites in both games because of the weak competition they faced. As a result, Wake Forest is the more battle tested team early this season as they had to battle hard for their win over the Green Wave two weeks ago. As for the Eagles, both their games were easy blowout wins. Keep in mind, when BC won at WF last season it was by just 3 points and in their previous visit two years prior it was by just 6 points. I expect Wake Forest to be in this game all the way and to have a great shot at the outright upset. The Demon Deacons are on an 11-2 ATS run as an underdog. Look for Boston College to drop to 7-13 ATS long-term as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Yes I am well aware that Wake Forest QB Kendall Hinton is still out for Wake Forest. However, Demon Deacons QB Sam Hartman has done a respectable job for them and now has two games under is belt as the replacement for the suspended Hinton. 8* Wake Forest

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #347 Saturday 10* Top Play Georgia Bulldogs (-) @ South Carolina Gamecocks @ 3:30 ET - This is the year for the Gamecocks. That is what most everyone is saying at least. I know my choice here will be an unpopular one because just about everywhere you look in terms of thoughts on this match-up you're going to read about the value on South Carolina. Ladies and gentlemen, the odds makers don't make many mistakes. That is a fact. While most of the sports betting world scratches their heads and wonders how the Bulldogs can be a double digit favorite on the road in this match-up I am here to tell you that the likelihood is going to be domination in the trenches. I know the Gamecocks are improved and I know the Bulldogs lost some key players from last year's team. But Georgia simply "reloads" and they have a huge talent pool where their best players are coming from. The fact is that they've outgained South Carolina by a combined total of 578 to 73 in rushing yardage in the past two meetings between these teams. That is absolute domination in the trenches but we're getting line value here because they won each of those two games by only 14 points each despite dominating the ground game. I expect Saturday's win to again feature domination and this time it translates even better to the scoreboard with the win to come by 21 points. The Bulldogs have had this game circled because they know that this is one of their toughest games of the season up until they travel to LSU in mid-October. The point is that one of the top teams in the nation here, Georgia, is absolutely going to be ready and up to the South Carolina challenge. The Bulldogs are 6-1 SU (and 5-2 ATS) in their last 7 games as a road favorite. Also, in road games with a posted total between 49.5 and 56 points, the Bulldogs are an incredible long-term 21-6 SU and ATS! South Carolina, as a home dog of 7.5 to 10 points is 1-6-1 SU and 2-6 ATS! Bulldogs coach Kirby Smart and Gamecocks coach Will Muschamp are each in their third years with their respective teams. The vast improvement that Georgia showed from year one to year two tells me that, despite the experience returning on offense for the Gamecocks (both teams lost a lot on defense), the systems and the buy-ins from the players into those systems are having much more success for the Bulldogs than the Gamecocks and we'll see that again on Saturday in my opinion. Lay the big points on the road. 10* GEORGIA BULLDOGS

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #220 Monday 8* Florida State Seminoles (-) vs Virginia Tech Hokies @ 8 ET - Both teams have inexperienced defenses. That said, I like the advantage that FSU has by being at home for this one. Florida State is going to be loaded with energy with the new coaching regime and also feeding off the energy of the how crowd. The Seminoles, though a bit inexperienced on defense, are still loaded with athleticism on that side of the ball and are going to give the Hokies offense trouble. Keep in mind, Virginia Tech really struggled to establish the run last season. When teams can't do that, it bogs down the offense. I also like the fact that the Noles are returning a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball plus they get back QB Deondre Francois whom got hurt right away in Week 1 last year. Simply put there is a "buzz" around this FSU program right now and with the home field, the energy and enthusiasm that followed the coaching changes, and the fact that Florida State fell far short of expectations last year, we are going to see a massive effort from the Seminoles in this one. There is a reason this line is holding around a touchdown even though these teams are right next to each other in the rankings right now! In terms of technical trends, the Hokies went 0-3 as a dog last season, and also are a long-term 1-8 ATS in road games with a posted total in the 52.5 to 56 range. The Seminoles are 8-2 SU the last 10 times they've been a favorite in a range of 3.5 to 10 points and so, of course, a SU win is expected here. The reason this one also translates to a cover is simply a big difference between the status of these two offensive units right now. FSU is loaded on that side of the ball much moreso than the Hokies and the Noles also certainly have some new "wrinkles" under the sleeve of head coach Willie Taggart and they're going to surprise Virginia Tech early and often in this one. 8* FLORIDA STATE

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach CFB Game #218 Sunday 8* LSU Tigers (+) vs Miami Hurricanes @ 7:30 ET @ AT & T Stadium in Arlington, TX - When you're good people want you to fail. Where I am going with this is a play on LSU. Part of the reason is there is an early season move by the betting markets that is anti-SEC. I heard it here at the sports books in Vegas yesterday too. Many people rooting against the SEC. The fact is that the SEC, for the most part, rolled in their games yesterday and I am not talking about the games that were expected to be mismatches. Vanderbilt won their game by 28, Ole Miss won by 20, and Auburn hung on to beat higher-ranked Washington. The lines on all 3 of those game were tight and yet there were two blowouts plus the Tigers proved themselves against the doubters as there were a lot of Huskies backers for sure in that one. The point being that now we get a very solid football program, LSU at +3.5 in a "neutral" site game where the location certainly favors them. Of course I am well aware that Miami returns more starters than LSU but that is not some magic system that works for all early season games. You can't just take the team with more returning starters. The fact is that Hurricanes QB Malik Rosier struggled in closing out last season and I like what QB Joe Burrow brings to the table for the Tigers. The Ohio State transfer (and the Buckeyes know a thing or two about recruiting!) is a perfect fit for what LSU is wanting to do on offense this season (remember that OC Matt Canada clashed with head coach Ed Orgeron last season). That is why Canada is now with Maryland and Orgeron has a new system in place for 2018 on offense. That said, lets not forget that LSU is annually a very tough defense too. Those who like technical trends will be glad to know that the Tigers are 7-3 ATS (and 9-1 SU!) in neutral site games with a posted total between 45.5 and 49 points. Miami, with those same parameters, is an ugly 1-4 ATS and SU! Getting the Tigers as a dog of more than a field goal here is truly offering superb line value. 8* LSU

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #194 Saturday 8* Auburn Tigers (-) vs Washington Huskies @ 3:30 ET @ Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA - This is a contrarian play because the Huskies are ranked higher in the polls, have QB Jake Browning at the controls, and are getting points in this match-up. Don't be be fooled ladies and gentlemen. When a lower ranked team is favored over a higher ranked team it is usually with good reason. This one will prove to be no different. For one thing, though this is a "neutral" site game, the location strongly favors Auburn. I am not just saying that because the game is being played in the southeastern part of the country. I am also saying it because this will be the 3rd straight time that the Tigers are playing in this stadium. Keep in mind they played the SEC Title game here then the Peach Bowl here and now they open up their 2018 season here. This is a big edge for Auburn in this match-up as there is a lot of familiarity for the Tigers while this is certainly a challenging road trip for Washington. The Huskies are 0-2 SU and ATS the past two seasons when they've been an underdog. Also, they are 0-3 SU in their last 3 meetings with SEC foes. Now I know this is not a "true" home game for the Tigers the location still heavily favors them and that is why I will mention the fact that Auburn is 33-1 SU in non-conference home games the past dozen years. Washington has rarely been tested with a non-conference road game that is as tough as this one will be and I do not expect this to go well at all. 8* AUBURN

Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #205 Saturday 10* Top Play Washington State Cougars (-) @ Wyoming Cowboys @ 3:30 ET - Everyone seems to love Wyoming here. They are the more experience team, they have a game under their belt, and they won big at New Mexico State last week. However, that same Aggies team then went to Minnesota last night and got absolutely blasted by a Golden Gophers team that normally doesn't score a lot of points. That blowout loss put bullet holes into a couple of those aforementioned theories. One is about having a game under your belt (NM St had that edge over Minny) and the other is that the Cowboys win over the Aggies even matters! Here are the facts that do matter. Experienced or not Wyoming is still a Mountain West team and think about it ladies and gentlemen, how many kids grow up thinking I want to play football at Wyoming? This is not some football powerhouse. Now they're hosting a Pac-12 team that early this summer was laying a TD against them. Now Washington State is down into the pick'em price range and is available at a pick'em price on the money line in a number of books as of mid-day Friday. I am happy to back the Cougars here at a fantastic discount as the markets have done what they usually do - they overreact to one game! Keep in mind Washington State has a couple of easier non-conference home games on deck. In other words, the Cougars have been fully focused on this road challenge all summer long as they know this will be their toughest game before Pac-12 action gets underway for them. They'll be ready...and so am I! 10* WASHINGTON STATE

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #197 Saturday 8* Ole Miss Rebels (+) vs Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Noon ET @ NRG Stadium in Houston, TX - Both of these teams last season were defined by their offense and had struggles on defense. I watched the Red Raiders struggle time and time again to convert chances in opponents red zones though. I also know that Texas Tech is very inexperienced on offense this season while Ole Miss is absolutely loaded. That said, even though the Red Raiders are returning more starters on defense than the Rebels are, I love Mississippi in this spot. They are not getting near the respect they should in a game that is on a neutral field and, of course, I also love having the SEC over the Big 12 in this match-up. I just feel that Ole Miss is going to be so far head of Texas Tech in terms of offensive production in this one that the Red Raiders won't be able to keep up. With this line moving all the way up to a +3 now the value is even greater with the underdog as of mid-day Friday and I am pulling the trigger right now and grabbing the great value. 8* OLE MISS

Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #144 Friday 10* Top Play Western Michigan Broncos (+) vs Syracuse Orange @ 6 ET - I know this is a MAC team that Syracuse is facing but the Orange sure are getting an awful lot of respect from the betting markets when you consider that they are 2-8 SU in road game the past two seasons. Simply put, Syracuse is not known for traveling well and they're taking on a Western Michigan team that is 10-2 SU in home games the past two seasons. I am well aware of the fact that the Broncos have a game at Michigan on deck next week but they are not looking ahead to that. This is their home opener and this is an important game to win and they know of course that a win next week against the Wolverines would be nothing short of a miracle. In other words the Broncos are most certainly focused on the task at hand here. I also like the fact that Western Michigan head coach Tim Lester was the offensive coordinator with Syracuse as recent as just a few years ago. He has some insight into the Orange (including their players) that others don't have. Also, Lester is going to be resuming play-calling duties again this season which I feel will bring out the best in this Western Michigan offense. The Broncos are anxious to get back on the field after an ugly season-ending loss at Toledo last year. Prior to that defeat Western Michigan had won 6 of their 9 prior games and none of the 3 losses came by more than 7 points. The average margin of defeat for the Broncos was just 4 points in those 3 losses. Syracuse lost a ton of talent from last season's wide receiver corps and in their linebacker unit. Keep in mind the Broncos, by the end of the year, had lost 21 players to season-ending injuries last year. That has created a roster this season that is much deeper and much more experienced (others forced into action last year) than first meets the eye and, of course they are healthier right now too. Add it all up and you have great "hidden value" with the home dog here! 10* WESTERN MICHIGAN

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach CFB Game #139 Thursday 8* Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-) @ Tulane Green Wave @ 8 ET - The very first number that popped up for Wake Forest in this game was a 13 and now it is as a low as a 5.5 as of Tuesday evening. Of course I am aware of the fact that Demon Deacons QB Kendall Hinton is suspended. The fact is that Wake Forest has a pair of solid options behind him. Also, these guys are going to be functioning behind a very strong offensive line that is a cohesive group in terms of returning starters from last year. On the other side of the ball WF will have to deal with facing the option of Tulane. However, that is also an added edge here being the first game of the season as Wake Forest has plenty of time through August to get prepared for it. That has been a big focus for the Demon Deacons heading into this game. Keep in mind Wake Forest returns a ton of talent on the offensive line and they're going up against a Green Wave defensive line that lost all but one starter from last year's team. I am looking for Tulane to drop to 5-10 ATS in their last 15 as a home dog while the Demon Deacons improve to 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games. The mismatch in the trenches coupled with the big downward line move on this one past the key number of 7 made it a definite play for me for Thursday. 8* WAKE FOREST

Bowl Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #152 Monday 10* Top Play Georgia Bulldogs (+) vs Alabama Crimson Tide in National Championship Game @ Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA @ 8:10 ET - Alabama got their big W last week with the much wanted revenge game victory over Clemson. Certainly I am not saying the Crimson Tide don't want this game because, of course they do as winning the Championship is the ultimate goal. However, what I am saying is that Alabama played their ideal game last week (at least defensively) and I don't think they're going to have enough left in the tank to do it again this week. The Bulldogs are going to pound away with their potent ground game and, keep in mind, Alabama only gained 264 yards of offense last week. Just like Clemson, Georgia has a fantastic defense. Additionally, the Bulldogs offense has the added confidence of piling up 517 yards of offense and 54 points in last week's OT win over Oklahoma. This is one of those situations where the whole world is basically ready to hand the trophy over to Alabama before the game is even played. Let's not forget that Georgia head coach Smart was a defensive coordinator under Crimson Tide head coach Saban for 8 years. The Bulldogs did get blown out by Alabama when they met 2 seasons ago but that was a turnover-fueled loss. Georgia has done a great job of not turning the ball over and QB Fromm was very efficient and effective in last week's win over Oklahoma. Winning a pressure-filled game like that (and also winning the SEC Title Game over Auburn in dominating fashion) has done wonders for the confidence of this team. The Bulldogs are absolutely ready and capable of becoming national champs and, if they don't, I expect the loss to be by 3 points or less so grab the value with the points being offered. Look for the Crimson Tide to finish the season with a 3-6 ATS mark against SEC foes. The Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS this season in their games against teams with a winning record and they've played just as tough of a schedule as Alabama has and yet they don't get near the respect that the Crimson Tide do. I'll gladly step in and take advantage. 10* GEORGIA 

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #368 Saturday 8* James Madison Dukes (+) vs North Dakota State Bison @ Noon ET in FCS Championship Game in Frisco, TX - The Dukes are the defending champs but the Bison had won 5 straight FCS Championships before falling short last year. While the markets are heavily favoring North Dakota State to take the title back, there is a lot of value with the points being offered here. These are truly two very evenly matched teams and the only common opponent, South Dakota State, they faced this season created much different results. For the Bison it was a loss and a yardage deficit of 136 yards. For James Madison it was a win and a yardage edge of 97 yards. In a true #1 vs #2 battle in this year's FCS Championship I am happy to grab the generous points with the undervalued underdog. After opening up at a 3.5 this line has moved up to a 4.5 as of Friday evening and the added value here is truly a bonus. 8* JAMES MADISON

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #274 Monday 10* Top Play Clemson Tigers (+) vs Alabama Crimson Tide @ 8:45 ET in Sugar Bowl @ Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana - Alabama started the season with a tough match-up versus Florida State. Even though the Crimson Tide won that game by 17 points, they only outgained the Seminoles by 19 yards! Alabama was then a huge favorite for many consecutive weeks and basically it was Roll Tide Roll week in and week out. However, looking their final 4 games of the season, including some tougher match-ups finally, I believe shows that the Crimson Tide are not quite what they once were in recent years. Of course one of the final four games was against Mercer so remove that from the equation but, looking at the other 3 games shows some keys. Alabama only beat Mississippi State by 7 points. Also, the Crimson Tide did beat LSU by 14 points bur they were outgained in that game. Then, Alabama's other game saw them get crushed by Auburn as they lost by double digits! As for Clemson, their schedule had many more challenges sprinkled in it throughout the year and the way the Tigers responded in facing regular more consistent challenges will serve them well here. The fact this is a revenge game for Alabama and, with the long-term reputation the Crimson Tide has, this line may look funny to some. However, the line is perfectly fine as, the fact is, it is offering exceptional value to a Clemson team that did face a tougher schedule than Alabama did. Also, while both teams are strong defensively, the Tigers do have the stronger defensive line and I look for that key battle in the trenches to be a key to an upset victory for the dog in this one. Alabama has lost each of their last 3 trips to the Sugar Bowl while Clemson is on a 7-0 SU/ATS run in bowl games. The Tigers are on a 5-0 ATS run as an underdog and I'll grab them again here in their preferred role. 10* CLEMSON

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #269 Monday 8* LSU Tigers (-) vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ 1 ET in Citrus Bowl @ Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida - The Irish are hurt by suspensions at WR and TE. Though the Tigers also have concerns at a key position with injuries effecting their LB corps, LSU has more depth at LB than Notre Dame does at WR and TE. The Fighting Irish love to run the ball but now they'll very nearly be one-dimensional due to all the issues at WR and TE as they don't have the usual passing targets they would have. The LSU defense, thanks to a stout defensive line, will be up for the challenge in terms of stopping the run. The Tigers are on a 6-0 ATS run and the Irish are on an 0-4 ATS run. That means we have a combined 10-0 ATS streak here favoring LSU. Also, the Tigers are 8-2 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points while Notre Dame is on a 2-9 ATS run in January games. 8* LSU

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #259 Saturday 10* Top Play Iowa State Cyclones (+)  @ Memphis Tigers @ 12:30 ET in Liberty Bowl @ Liberty Bowl Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee - Memphis is 10-2 and they are at home for this game and yet they opened up as only a 3-point favorite over a 7-5 Iowa State. Sure enough the masses jumped all over the Tigers and drove this line to as high as a 4.5 in some spots. It has settled in around a 4 as of gameday morning and I am very happy to back the Cyclones in this spot. Iowa State played a much tougher schedule than Memphis did. The Big 12, of course, is much tougher than the American Athletic Conference. Also, the Cyclones have the much better defense. Even with facing a number of tough offenses that reside in the Big 12, Iowa State allowed only 21 points and 368.4 yards per game on the season. As for the Tigers, they allowed 33.4 points and 476.2 yards per game. Of course the Memphis numbers on offense look great but let's keep level of competition in mind when evaluating that offense. Also, note that the Cyclones held Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech to a combined 291 yards below what those 3 potent offenses typically average per game. Iowa State is a solid 11-6 ATS the past 3 seasons combined when facing a team with a winning record while Memphis is an ugly 5-11 ATS over this same span. Also, as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points, the Tigers are a long-term 17-33 ATS. Both teams lost their regular season finale but Memphis allowed a whopping 726 yards in their loss while the Cyclones allowed a paltry 264 yards in their loss. Big difference between the defenses of these teams and I love defensive-minded dogs in bowl games! 10* IOWA STATE

Contrarian Crusher - CFB Game #256 Friday 10* Top Play Ohio State Buckeyes (-) vs USC Trojans @ 8:30 ET in Cotton Bowl @ AT & T Stadium in Arlington, TX - The Buckeyes were in the discussion for a playoff spot. The fact they didn't get it means they come out fired up and with something to prove in this game. You can't expect anything less from a Meyer-led team. They are going to prove they should have belonged by coming up with a huge game here. Keep in mind, both of these teams have very dangerous offenses but, when you look at the defenses, there is no comparison. The Trojans allowed 405 yards per game while the Buckeyes allowed only 292 yards per game. Also, though both teams played equally tough schedules, Southern Cal's scoring margin on the season was 8.2 points per game while Ohio State's scoring differential was 22.6 points per game. That is a variance of 14.4 points and indeed I am expecting the Buckeyes to win this game by 2 TDs but they are only favored by about one. Ohio State rates the edge on both the offensive line and defensive line and I love backing teams that can win those battles in the trenches! USC is on a 1-7 ATS run as an underdog, an 0-5 ATS run in neutral site games, and December has not been kind to the Trojans either - a long-term 5-14 ATS mark. After their miracle comeback win over Penn State in last year's bowl action, they won't be so fortunate here against the mighty Buckeyes. Ohio State is a long-term 13-4 (SU and ATS) against Pac-12 opponents. Also, the Buckeyes Meyer is on a long-term 10-3 (ATS and SU) run in bowl games. 10* OHIO STATE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #249 Friday 8* NC State Wolfpack (-) vs Arizona State Sun Devils @ 3 ET in Sun Bowl @ Sun Bowl Stadium in El Paso, TX - I am well aware of the fact that the Sun Devils have a solid ATS record as an underdog while the Wolfpack have struggled ATS as a favorite. However, the edges are just too big for me to ignore in this one. I particularly like the fact that NC State has the stronger offensive line and defensive line. That means that the Wolfpack certainly should control the trenches in this one and that is such a critical aspect of the game. NC State has the stronger passing game on offense, and on defense they do rate an edge both against the run and defending the pass. The Wolfpack are 3-0 ATS as a neutral site favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Also, NC State is on a 7-3 (SU and ATS) run in games played on turf. Arizona State is a long-term 5-9 ATS in bowl games and a long-term 0-4 ATS against ACC teams. The Sun Devils are 5-10 (SU and ATS) in games played on a neutral field and also 2-5 ATS when they enter a game on a winning streak of 2 games or more. The past 3 seasons combined, in non-conference games, Arizona State is 3-7 ATS. More of the same here! 8* NC STATE

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #244 Thursday 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys (-) vs Virginia Tech Hokies @ 5:15 ET in Camping World Bowl @ Camping World Stadium in Orlando, FL - The Hokies will be without WR Cam Phillips and this is a significant absence as he was their leading receiver (by far) for both catches and yardage! That is going to make it even tougher for Virginia Tech to keep up with the high-flying Cowboys. Yes, I know that Hokies defensive coordinator Bud Foster has a great long-term reputation and that Virginia Tech's defense did bounce back this year after some tough seasons in recent years. However, the Hokies D was rarely challenged by strong passing attacks (schedule was friendly in that regard) but now Virginia Tech faces an OSU attack that will give them a ton of trouble. Note that in the Hokies games against West Virginia, East Carolina, and Pittsburgh, they allowed an average of 308 passing yards per game! As for Oklahoma State's offense they average nearly 600 yards per game including nearly 400 yards per game through the air! The Cowboys have faced the tougher schedule this season and Virginia Tech is a long-term 1-4 ATS as a neutral field underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. OSU is 3-0 ATS long-term against ACC opponents and also went 3-0 SU and ATS in non-conference games this season. Long-term they've won 40 of 53 games SU (and gone 31-22 ATS) when they are a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. All but 1 of the Cowboys wins came by at least 7 points this season and all 3 of the Hokies losses came by 6 points or more! With that said, we've got a great number to work with here! 10* OKLAHOMA STATE

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach CFB Game #275 Wednesday 10* Top Play Purdue Boilermakers (+) vs Arizona Wildcats in Foster Farms Bowl @ Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California @ 8:30 ET - The Boilermakers faced a much tougher schedule than Arizona did this season. Also, Purdue is the much better team on defense. The Wildcats allow 34.1 points per game while the Boilermakers allow only 19.3 points per game. Purdue has gone 4-2 ATS their last 6 as a dog and they are 3-0 ATS after a bye week as well as 3-0 ATS in non-conference action! In games with a line range from -3 to +3, the Wildcats have gone an ugly 2-6 SU and ATS! Of course when you have a poor defense you often struggle to win close games and that is likely to be the case again with Arizona here. While the Wildcats stumbled late in the season by losing each of their last 2 games and 3 of their last 4, the Boilermakers have the momentum edge as they won each of their last 2 games as well as 3 of their last 4. Arizona's strength on offense is their ground game but the Boilermakers are very strong against the run and allowed only 84 rushing yards per game their last 5 games of the regular season! 10* PURDUE 

Christmas Eve Special - Rickenbach CFB Game #228 Sunday 10* Top Play Fresno State Bulldogs (+) vs Houston Cougars in Hawaii Bowl @ Aloha Stadium in Honolulu, Hawaii @ 8:30 ET - The Bulldogs played at Hawaii in mid-November when they got a 31-21 win over the Warriors. Fresno State having already made the trip here for that game, plus having played in the Hawaii Bowl multiple times in the past, gives them an edge here. The Cougars are without their offensive coordinator for this game. That negates one of the edges they were anticipated to have here as Houston's offense was their advantage in this match-up. The fact is that the Bulldogs are the much stronger defense, they are motivated by recent bowl losses, and they have a significant coaching edge with Tedford over Applewhite. The Bulldogs are 9-1 ATS (including 5-0 ATS this season) in games against teams with a winning record. Also, Fresno State is 4-0 ATS the last 4 times they've been involved in games with a line between +3 and -3. The Cougars are 3-5 SU and ATS against Mountain West Conference opponents long-term while the Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS against teams from the American Athletic Conference. Coach Tedford has done great things with the Bulldogs in his first season here after coming over from Cal and they want to carry momentum right into next season with a big bowl win. Houston is at the other end of the spectrum and just not the same team they were under coach Tom Herman. The public perception is still "off" on these two teams and I'll step in and take advantage. 10* FRESNO STATE

Bowl Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #226 Saturday 10* Top Play Toledo Rockets (-) vs Appalachian State Mountaineers @ 7 ET in Dollar General Bowl in Mobile, AL - The Rockets seek revenge from last year's 31-28 loss to the Mountaineers in bowl action. Of course you can't just blindly play revenge. However, in this case it plays very well because Toledo is the much stronger team in my opinion. Appalachian State played one of the weakest schedules in the nation and lets not forget they lost on the road at Massachusetts and Louisiana Monroe this season! Those two teams each ended the season with 4-8 records. The Rockets hold big edges over Appalachian State in terms of offense and on special teams. Also, the Mountaineers pass defense got picked apart by Coastal Carolina and Louisiana Monroe and they face a much tougher challenge here. The Rockets are averaging 220 yards per game on the ground this season while also throwing for nearly 300 yards per game! Appalachian State is 0-6 SU (and only 2-4 ATS) the last 6 times they've been an underdog and I like the fact this line has now dipped below a 7 as of gameday morning. The Rockets are a long-term 31-16 ATS as a favorite in a range of 3.5 to 10 points. 10* TOLEDO

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #224 Saturday 8* San Diego State Aztecs (-) vs Army Black Knights @ 3:30 ET in Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth, TX - Both teams are run-dominated but what I like about San Diego State here is that head coach Rocky Long is known for great success when facing option-based offenses. Long has gone 11-1 SU (and 8-4 ATS) when facing an opponent that runs the option. Army was fortunate to defeat Navy two weeks ago but that win still resonates with the betting markets and is helping to keep this line lower than it should be. The Aztecs are the superior team and finished up the season with a 4-0 SU and ATS run with no win by less than a margin of 19 points! San Diego State has won in blowouts in their bowl games each of the past two seasons and I expect another here. Army is 3-21 SU (and 8-16 ATS) long-term when facing a Mountain West opponent. The Aztecs are 19-3 SU (and 16-5 ATS) when they enter a game on a winning streak of 2 or more games. That means we have combined angles (from all of the above) of 44-17 (72%) ATS supporting backing the fave in this one! 8* SAN DIEGO STATE

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #219 Friday 8* Central Michigan Chippewas (+) vs Wyoming Cowboys in Famous Idaho Potato Bowl @ Albertson's Stadium in Boise, ID @ 4 PM ET - The big news here is that Cowboys QB Josh Allen will play. The earliest lines on this game had it at a pick'em but now Wyoming is -3.5 as of gameday morning. I love the value with the underdog here. Keep in mind, Allen's shoulder is not 100%. His performance this season also was not that impressive. I know he has the size and some skill sets that have the NFL scouts enamored but others tell it like it is that his field vision and accuracy both are lacking...the latter of which won't be helped by a sore shoulder! Of course the Cowboys aren't exactly loaded with talent around him and that has also hurt Allen. The bottom line is that Central Michigan has the better offense here as they averaged 392.1 yards per game compared to just 286.9 for Wyoming. While some may expect the Cowboys to bounce back after their upset loss at San Jose State as a huge favorite in their regular season finale, Wyoming is actually 0-7 ATS as a fave of more than 3 points when off of a straight up loss as a favorite. Also, the Cowboys are 1-5 ATS when facing an opponent off of a straight up win as an underdog. The Chips knocked off Northern Illinois as a small dog in their regular season finale. That brings the Chippewas to 5-0 SU and ATS in their last 5 games. Wyoming is on an 0-2 ATS run. Add up all the ATS factors and streaks here and you have a 19-1 (95%) ATS spot favoring the underdog! Grab the points! 8* CENTRAL MICHIGAN

Contrarian Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #208 Saturday 10* Top Play Colorado State Rams (-) vs Marshall Thundering Herd @ 4:30 ET @ Dreamstyle Stadium in Albuquerque, NM in New Mexico Bowl - Marshall certainly has been the popular choice here as the markets have pushed the Rams line all the way down to just 3.5 as of early game day morning. I love the value here we're getting with Colorado State. Trend players are all over the Thundering Herd because they have good recent history in the bowls and because the Rams don't! Also, Colorado State failed to cover their final 6 games of the regular season. However, that big Rams win over Fresno State by 28 points in the season finale did wonders for the confidence of this team heading into this bowl match-up. Also, even though their offensive coordinator has left to join Tennessee, the strength of the Rams is the offense and they'll be just fine here. The issue for CSU this season has been the defense but I expect an absolutely huge effort from the D in this one because Colorado State's defensive coordinator (Marty English) will be coaching the final game of his career! Look for every Rams defender to have a great "motor" in this game as a result as they go hard all game long to send English out the right way! Keep in mind, Marshall lost 4 of their last 5 games and they have a lot more questions on their injury report than do the Rams heading into this one. Colorado State averages a full TD more per game than the Thundering Herd do. Marshall's edge here, in normal circumstances, would be the defense but I expect CSU to step up big given this situation. Also, the fact the Rams have lost 3 straight bowls has them highly motivated here and they're use to playing in Albuquerque while this is certainly an unusual location for Marshall. The Thundering Herd are 2-4 ATS when they enter a game off of 2 or more consecutive SU losses. The Rams are a long-term 8-4 ATS against CUSA foes and also did face the tougher schedule this season. Fade the masses and lay the points here! 10* COLORADO STATE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #203 Saturday 8* Georgia State Panthers (+) vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers @ 2:30 ET @ Camping World Stadium in Orlando, FL in the Cure Bowl - The Hilltoppers are getting all the attention here with this line being driven up to a 7 as of game day morning. In my opinion, Western Kentucky is being vastly over-valued. The Hilltoppers are horrible running the ball (2.1 ypc) and also allowed 3.5 sacks per game. They just don't hold enough of an edge to justify being a full TD favorite here. There was a concern about Panthers WR Penny Hart but Georgia State's leading receiver (foot injury) has been upgraded to probable for this game. It is Western Kentucky that has been bit by the injury bug this season and the Hilltoppers did lose 4 of their last 5 games The Panthers won 3 of their last 5 games and they lost their season finale because of turnovers as Georgia State did outgain Idaho by 60 yards in that 24-10 loss. The Hilltoppers have had 3 weeks off and are likely to be the rustier team compared to a Panthers team that has just had 2 weeks off. Western Kentucky is on a 3-8 ATS run in non-conference games including 0-3 ATS this season. Also, as a favorite this season, the Hilltoppers have gone an ugly 1-6 ATS. The Panthers enter this game off of back to back SU losses and that is a situation that has seen them respond by going 7-2 ATS! Look for another cover here! 8* GEORGIA STATE

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB 8* Navy Midshipmen (-) vs Army Black Knights @ 3 ET - Army will be the popular choice here as they have the better record and also have the chance to win their first Commander-in-Chief Trophy in 21 years! However, in typical contrarian fashion (but not without proper reasoning) I am going against the masses in this one. The fact is that Navy played a much tougher schedule this season. Also, last year the Midshipmen lost to the Black Knights to snap a 14-game winning streak for Navy in this series. They'll be ready for payback here and now all 3 of their quarterbacks are healthy. Abey, Lewis, and Perry are all available here and the Midshipmen haven't lost back to back games in this series in over 20 years. Rest is a good thing but too much rest can lead to rust. The Midshipmen have been off for 2 weeks which is good as they enjoyed a bye week last week. However, the Black Knights have been off for 3 weeks as they haven't played since a loss at North Texas 3 weeks ago. While Army is off of a loss, Navy is off of back to back losses and that is noteworthy here as they are 10-2 ATS when off of back to back SU losses and facing an opponents off of a SU loss. Army is 2-8 ATS the last 10 times they've been a dog of less than 5 points. Also, the Black Knights are a horrible 0-8 ATS when playing with rest and facing a team playing with revenge. Certainly the record of the Midshipmen is unimpressive this season after they started the year well but their quarterbacks are now healthy and they played the much tougher schedule than Army and they have revenge against the Black Knights. I'll gladly lay the small number. 8* NAVY 

Contrarian Crusher Top Play - Rickenbach CFB Game #325 Saturday 10* Miami Hurricanes (+) @ Clemson Tigers @ 8 ET - It is hard to repeat as champions in any sport at any level - pro or college. It is also difficult to go undefeated in any sport at any level - pro or college. What does that mean for us here? The loss that Miami suffered at Pittsburgh last week was the best possible thing that could have happened to them. Instead of coming into this game 11-0 and with a target on their backs, they are now a hungry 1-loss team. The Tigers also have 1 loss this season but now they again are the "hunted" in this match-up as it is Clemson with the target on their backs. Ranked #1 in the country and the defending national champs, the Tigers are over-hyped and the Hurricanes are getting absolutely zero respect here. Mark Richt is a helluva strong coach and this turnaround at Miami with the Hurricanes football program is no fluke. While Clemson and head coach Dabo Swinney certainly merit plenty of respect, the 58-0 blowout win over Miami in 2015 is something the Canes program is ready to atone for here. That was before Richt got here but he now has this team firing on all cylinders and don't let last week's result fool you. The Hurricanes, sure they made a mistake, but the fact is they were looking ahead to this game. They knew they had the ACC Championship Game on deck no matter what and they'll be ready to go on Saturday night! Miami is 13-1 (93%) ATS as a dog of no more than 14.5 points when they are off of a straight-up loss by 10 or more points!  Off of last week's embarrassing loss by a double digit margin at Pittsburgh and now a big dog against Clemson, that system fits perfectly. Revenge from the 58-0 beating is on tap here and Clemson is an ugly 0-4 ATS as a fave when they are opposed by a revenge-seeking team that is coming off of a straight-up loss as a fave. Combined 17-1 (94%) ATS systems here! 10* MIAMI

Afternoon Annihilation Top Play - Rickenbach CFB Game #322 Saturday 10* Auburn Tigers (+) vs Georgia Bulldogs @ 4 ET - In a normal, regular-season situation, with Auburn off of a huge win over the best team in the nation, you would fade them. However, that is what the betting markets are doing here even though this is not even close to being a normal situation! The winner of this game goes to the 4-team playoff. There is no way, absolutely zero chance, that the Tigers come out flat for this game. They've gone from being as a high as a 3 point favorite to now being a dog in this game. I know the location of this game (Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta) certainly favors Georgia. However, the Tigers absolutely dominated the Bulldogs 3 weeks ago and that was after playing 3 straight road games! Now Auburn comes into this one off of 3 straight home games and their physicality in the trenches will continue to be the difference in this match-up. The fact that RB Kerryon Johnson is now listed as probable for this game (shoulder) is also a big plus for the Tigers. Look for Auburn to again dominate in the ground game (both sides of the ball) in this match-up. Remember they also hold a big edge at QB with Stidham over Fromm. The Tigers Stidham is much more experienced and the Bulldogs Fromm struggled with all the pressure from Auburn in the first meeting. Nothing changes my mind about that again being an issue in the rematch. Also, in terms of technical support, Georgia is 1-8 ATS when off of back to back SU wins and facing an opponent that is also off of back to back SU wins! As for Auburn, they only failed to cover once in eight SEC games this season! Also, the Tigers are a perfect 5-0 SU in games played on a neutral field with a total between 45.5 and 49 points! 10* AUBURN

ESPN Smash Pass Top Play - Rickenbach CFB 10* Stanford Cardinal (+) vs USC Trojans @ 8 ET Friday @ Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, CA - Even though the Cardinal played last week and USC was off, the location of this game helps mitigate any edge the Trojans would have had in this situation because it is only about 15 miles from Stanford's home stadium in Palo Alto. Also, Southern Cal is the more banged up team even though they had last week off. They've lost a number of starters during this season and that includes 2 on the defensive line. A third one, Rasheem Green, is listed as probable for this one but he is dealing with a shoulder injury. The Cardinal have lost only one game this entire season by more than a field goal and that was against USC earlier this season in an absolutely embarrassing loss. In other words, payback is on order here! The Trojans defense has allowed 797 passing yards in their past two games. Prior to that, they had poor efforts against the ground attacks of Notre Dame and Arizona as those teams gashed USC for a combined 611 rushing yards. In other words, look for RB Bryce Love (probable) and Company to move the ball quite well in this one. The Cardinal defense has allowed an average of just 17 points per game their last 6 games and they've held their opponents to 24 points or less in 8 straight games. In stark contrast to these numbers, the Trojans defense has allowed an average of 29 points per game their last 6 games. Stanford is 15-1 ATS when off of a non-conference game and facing a conference foe that has at least 1 loss on the season. USC is 1-6 ATS when away from home and facing an opponent with a winning percentage under .850 that is off of a SU dog win. The Cardinal were a 3 point dog versus Notre Dame last week and upset the Irish 38-20. I wouldn't be surprised to see another upset here and certainly am happy to grab the generous points being offered in this one. 10* STANFORD

Blowout Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #188 Saturday 10* Top Play Utah Utes (-) vs Colorado Buffaloes @ 10 PM ET - This is a battle for bowl eligibility and it also is a revenge game for the Utes who lost at Colorado last year. The fact that Utah gave up 10 late points to lose to the Huskies last week strengthens this play as the Utes are angry and hungry! Utah is 6-2 ATS in this series and the Buffaloes are an ugly 1-3 (SU and ATS) in road games this season. Each of the Buffaloes last 3 losses have come by double digits. The Utes not only have the home field edge here, they also have the much better defense as they allow 90 yards less per game than the Buffs do. Colorado is 6-11 ATS as a road dog of 10.5 to 14 points. Even though the Buffaloes are off of a bye and the Utes are on regular rest, Utah is 14-8 ATS when on rest of 6 days or less. Colorado is 0-5 ATS when playing with rest and is off of their last season bye week. After playing 10 straight weeks and then having a bye, the Buffaloes are unlikely to be sharp and certainly lost any continuity they had going. The Utes are on a revenge mission, home finale mission, and will be the ones to earn bowl eligibility with a win in this one. 10* UTAH

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #194 Saturday 8* Minnesota Golden Gophers (+) vs Wisconsin Badgers @ 3:30 ET - On paper, the Badgers should crush the Gophers. But, of course, they don't play the game on paper and despite all the edges that Wisconsin has here, this line is truly over-priced. Situational analysis is one of the most important elements of handicapping. That said, even though Minnesota has struggled with physical teams and is a one-dimensional team, the Badgers can't help but be peeking ahead to their Big Ten Title game with Ohio State. Yes, Wisconsin wants to remain perfect on the season and I am sure they will. But, they don't need to blowout Minnesota to do that and I know the Golden Gophers are going to go hard on Senior Day in Minneapolis and with Paul Bunyan's Axe up for grabs. The Badgers have won this game 13 straight times BUT the Golden Gophers are a perfect 8-0 ATS their last 8 as a double digit home dog. Also, Wisconsin has gone 1-6 ATS as a road favorite of more than 17 points against a team with a losing record. The Badgers lost (ATS) in this role at Illinois (and the game was even closer than the final score indicated) in late October and I expect another failed cover for Wisconsin here. 8* MINNESOTA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #154 Saturday 8* Michigan Wolverines (+) vs Ohio State Buckeyes @ Noon ET - The only other time the Buckeyes have played a tough defense on the road this season, QB JT Barrett threw 4 picks at Iowa and Ohio State got demolished 55-24 by the Hawkeyes. I am not saying the same thing happens here but I am saying a few mistakes by Barrett would not surprise as the Wolverines are one of the top defenses in the nation. Also, I am well aware of the injury situation with Michigan QB Brandon Peters but this line has the Buckeyes extremely over-priced on the road. The fact the line has continued to climb higher has me in play on this one. Though it is only an outside shot, the Buckeyes still have a shot at a playoff spot and that gives the Wolverines even more incentive in this heated rivalry. Ohio State is only 8-13 ATS (including 2-4 ATS this season) when off of a win in Big Ten action. The Wolverines are 10-0 SU in home games with a posted total between 49.5 and 56 points and also 5-1 SU when off of a loss against a Big Ten foe. With Michigan getting beaten at Wisconsin last week and Ohio State off of a blowout win versus Illinois, this line has become inflated and there is significant line value with the big dog Wolverines at home. 8* MICHIGAN

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #126 Friday 8* Arkansas Razorbacks (+) vs Missouri Tigers @ 2:30 ET - Arkansas is seeking revenge and this also could very well be head coach Brett Bielema's last game and it is also Senior Day in Fayetteville. With no bowl game for the Razorbacks this is their bowl game and they would love nothing more than to knock off the upstart Tigers. I am well aware that Missouri has won 5 straight and covered 7 straight but the Tigers still are only 3-4 in SEC action and only 1 of those wins (versus Florida) has come against a foe that actually has an SEC win. Two of the Missouri victories came against Tennessee and Vanderbilt (both 0-7) in SEC action. I realize Arkansas has been a disappointment this season and, for that matter, truly disappointing throughout the majority of Bielema's tenure. However, this is the spot where they step up and an outright upset would not surprise. That said, I'll gladly take the huge home dog points and fade an SEC opponent that is highly over-rated right now! The Hogs are 9-4 ATS when off of a loss in conference action. Missouri is 2-4 ATS when they are a favorite in a range of 3.5 to 10 points! Grab the generous points here. 8* ARKANSAS

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #118 Friday 8* Toledo Rockets (-) vs Western Michigan Broncos @ 11:30 AM ET - Toledo is off of a blowout road win at Bowling Green last week. That holds extra significance here because the Rockets are a PERFECT 10-0 ATS when they are a home favorite of more than 8 points after a SU win that covered the spread by double digits! After blowing out the Falcons on the road last week, Toledo blows out the Broncos at home this week. The Rockets have plenty of motivation here as they had won 5 straight in this series but have now lost to Western Michigan each of the last two seasons. It is time for payback and they have a huge advantage on the offensive side of the ball as the Broncos have been a different team without Jon Wassink at QB. Western Michigan is also very banged up at the RB position and the Rockets are averaging 513 yards per game on offense. The Broncos average only 400 yards per game on offense. Also, Toledo has played the tougher schedule this season. The Rockets also are on a 7-1 ATS run after facing Bowling Green. Western Michigan already has the 6th win they needed for bowl eligibility while the Rockets are highly motivated here in a double-revenge spot and with needing a win to guarantee a spot in the MAC title game. 8* TOLEDO

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Thursday 8* Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Ole Miss Rebels @ 7:30 ET - Just in time for their biggest game of the season, the Rebels did something Saturday versus Texas A & M that was the last thing they wanted to do. Ole Miss showed Mississippi State the blueprint for how to shutdown their offense as they went scoreless in the 2nd half versus the Aggies after scoring 24 points in the first half. That horrific effort for the Rebels tells the Bulldogs all they need to know and Mississippi State is "out for blood" here. Yes, the Bulldogs did crush the Rebels last season at Ole Miss but they also were crushed at home by double digits two years ago. In that game Ole Miss was up 28 to 3 at halftime of what ended up being a 38-27 home loss that Mississippi State has not forgotten. I know that the new Rebels QB Te'amu has had some solid moments but I also watched him falter badly in last week's loss to the Aggies. The Bulldogs will take advantage of not having to face injured QB starter Shea Patterson and it will be Mississippi State's QB, Nick Fitzgerald, whom shines brightly in this one. With the line dropping down to 13.5 as of T-day morning, I am now pulling the trigger on a match-up I expect will be a blowout. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS at home this season. The Rebels are 1-3 ATS as an underdog this season and also had gone 0-3 ATS at Mississippi State in their last 3 visits before that big win two years ago. Now it is payback time for the Bulldogs. 8* MISSISSIPPI STATE

Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #382 Saturday 10* Top Play Vanderbilt Commodores (+) vs Missouri Tigers @ 7:30 ET - Missouri looks great, don't they? They've won 4 straight games and have been piling up points. They must be ready to join the SEC's elite, right? Far from it! This Tigers team is one of the most over-rated I have ever seen and they are getting way too much respect here on the road. I don't blame the odds makers because they knew everyone would be crazy about Missouri here so they had to set this number high. The point is that the betting markets are fooled and that is why the Tigers are still favored by more than a touchdown as of gameday morning even though they're on the road and their last 4 wins have been against, get this, NO ONE! The Tigers have faced Florida and Tennessee programs in disarray this season (both have fired their coaches this season) and Missouri also faced a pair of non-conference teams that are a combined 6-13 this season. Keep in mind that, prior to this easy stretch of schedule, the Tigers were on the SEC road and lost both games and gave up 93 points! Now certainly I am not saying that Vanderbilt is a powerhouse because they are definitely far from it but what I am saying is that the Commodores are coming to play Saturday and they are a big home dog that absolutely win this game outright! Vandy is off of an embarrassing home loss but they turned the ball over 4 times. This is their home finale and their next game is at dysfunctional Tennessee and the Commodores are sitting on 4 wins. You can bet their going to "bring it" in their home finale as they still have hopes of becoming bowl eligible and certainly a win over the Volunteers is plausible next week. Look for the Tigers to drop to 1-5 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points while the Commodores improve to 4-1 ATS as a home dog of 7.5 to 10 points. Value is off the charts here because Vandy has played a tougher schedule than Missouri and this particularly true in recent weeks. Even with the Tigers road covers this season they are still just 4-9 ATS in road games the last 3 seasons and they are over-priced here. 10* VANDERBILT

Big Ten Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #415 Saturday 10* Top Play Michigan Wolverines (+) @ Wisconsin Badgers @ Noon ET - The Badgers deserve plenty of credit for their 10-0 start but they've had a lot of help from the schedule-makers this season. This will prove to be their toughest test yet and, though they've clinched a spot in the Big Ten title game, Wisconsin is playing with unbeaten pressure as they're hoping to keep their CFB playoff hopes alive. The Badgers schedule has been so favorable that this is the first time this season that they are not favored by double digits! Keep in mind, this is even though they are at home for this game so that tells you a lot right there. The Badgers did beat Northwestern but they did not cover and only totaled 306 yards of offense in that game. Wisconsin also beat Iowa last week but they were fortunate as the Hawkeyes had just had the huge upset win of Ohio State the prior week and, as expected, Iowa came out completely flat against Wiscy last week. While the Badgers offense certainly rates better than the Wolverines, the defenses of Michigan is just as good as that of Wisconsin. Also, the Wolverines have faced a slightly tougher schedule than the Badgers this season. The pressure is on Wisconsin here and I am expecting the upset win for Michigan but will certainly grab the generous points. Even though this is the 2nd of B2B road games for the Wolverines, they are actually 5-1 ATS L6 in that situation. Also, Michigan is 6-1 ATS as a dog off of an ATS win by a double digit margin. Also, the Badgers are off of B2B ATS wins for the first time this season. The Wolverines also enter off of B2B ATS wins. That puts into play another solid system here as Wisconsin is 0-7 ATS when off of back to back SU/ATS wins and facing an opponent off of back to back SU/ATS wins! Also, the Badgers are only 1-7 ATS when they are favored by more than 5 points in Big Ten action against a team that has a winning percentage of .601 or more. 10* MICHIGAN 

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach Friday CFB 8* Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (+) vs Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders @ 8 ET - Both teams need a win to become bowl eligible but, while the Blue Raiders have an easy home game on deck versus Old Dominion, the Hilltoppers have a very tough road game at Florida International on deck. In other words, Western Kentucky knows they need to get the job tonight at home and I'll gladly grab them as a home dog here. The Hilltoppers have won 6 straight home finales. Also, even though QB Stockstill is back for MTSU, he is only 31 of 61 in his first two games since coming back. Making those numbers even more concerning is the fact that he faced UTEP and Charlotte and those two teams are a combined 1-19 and certainly are the bottom feeders of CUSA. As for Western Kentucky, their passing attack has been rolling for many weeks now. Over their last 5 games, the Hilltoppers have completed 66% of their passes and averaged 381.8 passing yards per game! I am well aware of the fact that WKU has lost 3 straight but they faced a pair of CUSA teams that are a combined 10-2 in conference action this season and their other game was against Vanderbilt, an SEC foe! Even with a tough season the Hilltoppers are still 20-4 SU and 16-8 ATS in conference action the past 3 seasons combined and they'll bounce back big in this crucial game tonight. As for the Blue Raiders, they are 2-7 ATS (and 1-8 SU) in games with a line between +3 and -3 the past three seasons combined. Middle Tennessee laying a field goal here is simply a case of them being over-valued! I'll look for the home dog to notch their 7 straight home finale victory. 8* WESTERN KENTUCKY

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Wednesday CFB 8* Eastern Michigan Eagles (+) @ Miami-Ohio Redhawks @ 7 ET - Long-time followers know I am a contrarian. The key reason to be a contrarian is because one must recognize and respect that the odds makers are smart. This game is a text book example of that because, remember, the goal of the odds maker is to balance the action. That said, the very first lines that game out on this game were pick'ems. Since then the line has been driven all the way up to a 3.5 in most spots as of early game day morning. Considering that Miami-Ohio is at home and needs to win out to become bowl eligible and also has defeated Eastern Michigan NINE straight times by an average margin of a DOZEN points per game, isn't it strange that the line opened up a pick'em? Exactly! The odds makers set it this way because they knew the public money would come in on the Redhawks here and they wanted to balance the sharp money coming in on the Eagles. You and I will be part of that sharp money. The Eagles have played the tougher schedule. They lost by double digits last week but that was a turnover-driven loss. The yardage stats were very nearly equal! Eastern Michigan has one of the best defenses in the MAC. Again, last week's ugly loss at Central Michigan was keyed by 5 turnovers. Each of the Eagles 3 prior losses were by 3 points or less and the loss to the Chippewas was their first loss this season by more than 7 points. The Eagles are highly motivated here because the Redhawks have had series dominance in this match-up and Eastern Michigan's viewpoint is that if the Eagles aren't going to a bowl than Miami-Ohio isn't going either! I am grabbing the points here but fully expect the upset win. 8* EASTERN MICHIGAN

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach Tuesday CFB 8* Akron Zips (+) vs Ohio University Bobcats @ 7 ET - The Zips are still alive in the MAC East race and take on the leader in the standings in this huge game. Not only that, Akron still needs a win to become bowl eligible and their season finale is next Tuesday. Suffice to say this is an ultra-important game for the Zips and coach Terry Bowden has said his team has been fired up from the start of the very first practices for the new "football week" heading into this match-up. Akron is excited to host the MAC East leader and we're getting line value here due to the Zips QB situation. I am well aware of the disciplinary issues against QB Thomas Woodson and the resulting suspension. However, even though he may be out again tonight, back-up QB Kato Nelson actually played quite well despite being under constant pressure last week at Miami-Ohio. The Redhawks have a solid defense (one of the best in the MAC based on yardage allowed) and Nelson did complete 19 of 38 for over 200 yards and a touchdown while battling through six sacks. Look for a better effort from the Zips offensive line in this one and, for that matter, from the entire team as they are fired up about hosting Ohio University with the ESPN cameras rolling tonight. No doubt the Bobcats are the better team here but they truly are over-priced and the Zips are catching them off of that massive win over Toledo (Rockets were last undefeated team in conference action in MAC). Akron has the edge here too in terms of facing an overall tougher schedule this season. Also, short week for Ohio U as they played on Wednesday last week while the Zips played last Tuesday. The dog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these teams. Also, the Bobcats are 2-9 ATS when off of back to back SU wins and facing an opponent off of a SU loss. Ohio University is 3-8 ATS when favored by more than 3 points after scoring more than 35 points the prior week. That means we have combined angles of 21-6 ATS in favor of the Zips. 8* AKRON

Top Play Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #172 Saturday 10* Northwestern Wildcats (-) vs Purdue Boilermakers @ 7 ET - Purdue's starting QB David Blough got hurt in the win versus Illinois last weekend and is out for the season. Boilermakers back-up signal-caller Elijah Sindelar will be under center today and the sophomore has 3 interceptions and no touchdowns in his two Big 10 road games this season and one of those was against Rutgers! That doesn't bode well for Sindelar here as he faces a Wildcats team that is rolling with momentum right now. Conventional wisdom says to fade a team off of an OT win but Northwestern is simply on fire right now as they've won 4 straight games and each of the last 3 have been in overtime! The Wildcats are a team on a mission right now and they've blasted Purdue by a combined 66-31 the last two years! Northwestern and the Boilermakers have each faced Wisconsin and Nebraska and if you look at the stats from those two games you will see that the Wildcats fared much better than Purdue. They are truly an under-valued home fave here and I am not about to get in front of the freight train especially with Sindelar getting the start for the Boilermakers here. Look for the Cats to take this one by double digits. 10* NORTHWESTERN

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #163 Saturday 8* Virginia Cavaliers (+) @ Louisville Cardinals @ 3:30 ET - All 3 meetings between these teams have been decided by 7 points or less - average margin of 5.3 points. With the Cardinals opening up as a double digit fave and then moving even higher (now favored by a dozen) I'll gladly get involved with the Cavaliers here. Simply put, it just wasn't the Cardinals season. Yes they are off of their bye week but no matter what they do the rest of the way they know they will have underachieved expectations. Conversely, Virginia is making good strides in Bronco Mendenhall's 2nd season and there is also some solid technical support for this play. The Cavaliers are 7-1 ATS when they are on the road off of a game where they allowed more than 35 points. That lone loss in that system just happened when they got annihilated by Pittsburgh by a final score of 31-14 but that one truly was a "phony final" as the Cavs actually outgained the Panthers in that game. Riding the momentum of last week's win over Georgia Tech, QB Benkert and company can have another big game here. The Cardinals defense has struggled this season including allowing a ridiculous 519.5 yards per game in conference action. With just a 2-4 record in ACC action, Louisville is mentally fatigued at this point in the season while the Cavaliers are riding the momentum of their best season since 2011 (which is also their last bowl appearance). Give me the big points in this one! 8* VIRGINIA 

Wednesday Watch-n-Win - Rickenbach CFB 8* Toledo Rockets (-) @ Ohio University Bobcats @ 7 ET - The Rockets had won 12 in a row over the Bobcats before being upset as a two-TD favorite at home last season. Toledo hasn't forgotten that loss and is ready to avenge it here. Both of these teams have been winning this season but the Rockets have played the tougher schedule. Also, Toledo is averaging 100+ yards more in the passing game than the Bobcats are there will be light winds with no precipitation on a chilly evening in Athens tonight. That means the passing game can excel and Ohio U, other than games against Hampton (FCS team) and Kent State (worst offense in FBS), has allowed an average of 305 passing yards per game this season! Though the Bobcats beat Miami-Ohio last week the Redhawks were still without QB Gus Ragland. As for the other 3 wins Ohio U has in MAC action, they came against teams that are a combined 7-20 this season! Now the Bobcats take a big step up in terms of level of competition and 3 of the Rockets 5 wins in MAC games have come against teams that currently have an overall winning record. Those 3 wins all came by double digit margins too and averaged a 19 point margin of victory! Toledo is on an 8-1 ATS run as a road fave. This line has dropped all the way down to 3.5 and, as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points, the Rockets are a long-term 31-16 ATS! As for Ohio U., prior to back to back home covers against the wounded Redhawks and deplorable Golden Flashes, they had been on a 2-5 ATS run in home games versus FBS foes. They are again being over-valued here and I'll gladly fade the line move here as this line had opened up in the 7 range! 8* TOLEDO ROCKETS 

Top Play Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #421 Saturday 10* Stanford Cardinal (+) @ Washington State Cougars @ 3:30 ET - This is a big-time revenge game for the Cardinal as they were embarrassed 42-16 at Stanford by the Cougars last season. The weather for this one in Pullman, WA actually favors the Cardinal. Washington State likes to throw the ball a lot (84 pass attempts last week!) and the weather is expected to be right around freezing with light snow showers this afternoon. That means the physical Stanford ground game could certainly be the key. The Cardinal are known for being physical on both sides of the ball and having RB Bryce Love (listed as probable now) back for this game is a big plus. The Cougars allowed 310 rushing yards (and 9.1 yards per carry!) at Arizona last week. Washington State also is playing a 10th straight week! They finally have a bye after this game but, from a physicality standpoint, the Cougars are likely to struggle to match Stanford here. The Cardinal just had their bye two weeks ago and, in fact, seemed to "sleep-walk" out of their bye as they struggled (and were actually fortunate) to get by Oregon State last week! However, the Cardinal also were clearly looking ahead to this big revenge game and they'll take advantage of a Washington State team that is suddenly having issues at QB. Falk got benched but his back-up, Hilinksi, threw for a ton of yardage but threw 4 picks! Hilinski makes too many mistakes and Falk is an "over-thinker" and "perfectionist" which is the type of QB that is unlikely to respond well off of a benching. In other words, the Cougars recent struggles (have lost 2 of 3) continue here against a Cardinal team that has won 5 straight games! Washington State is 1-7 ATS as a home fave of less than 10 points when facing an opponent with revenge. Cougars also are 0-5 ATS as a favorite when they are off of a game where they scored more than 30 points and are now facing a team with a winning record. Combined 12-1 ATS spot favoring the Cardinal here. 10* STANFORD

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #348 Saturday 8* Virginia Cavaliers (+) vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ 3 PM ET - We're getting solid line value here because the Cavaliers are off of back to back ugly losses and the Yellow Jackets have been a covering machine this season. Also, Georgia Tech is off of a loss so many expect that they will bounce back here. However, this is truly a "sandwich spot" for the Jackets as they're off of a big game at Clemson and they have another big game, hosting Virginia Tech, on deck. That said, Georgia Tech may not be fully focused on this Cavaliers team and I am expecting Virginia to give them plenty of trouble here. Keep in mind that the last time the Cavs hosted the Jackets (in 2015) they got the outright upset win at home. Then, even though the Cavaliers lost last season's meeting at Georgia Tech, the Cavs actually outgained the Yellow Jackets by 88 yards and had a 25-8 edge in first downs! Suffice to say the 14 points loss for Virginia was a "phony final" and I expect the Cavaliers to again play very tough versus the Yellow Jackets. Part of the reason they fared so well against the Jackets (statistically) in last year's match-up is the fact that the Cavs are coached by Bronco Mendenhall who faced the option plenty of times during his tenure at BYU. that said, and with solid defensive personnel on hand this season, look for the Cavaliers to again enjoy success in slowing the Jackets run game. Last season Georgia Tech was held under 200 yards of rushing which is an accomplishment as, for example, this season GT averages 348 rushing yards per game. The Yellow Jackets are 0-3 ATS (and SU!) as a road favorite in recent seasons and an outright upset here would not surprise. However, I am certainly grabbing the generous points being offered. The Cavaliers are on a 6-2 ATS run as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. Also, the host in this series with Georgia Tech is on a 7-0 ATS run. Additionally, the Cavs are 5-0 ATS when off of back to back losses (SU and ATS) and facing an opponent who is off of a SU loss! That system is in play here and means we have angles that are a combined 12-0 ATS in favor of the home dog here! 8* VIRGINIA

Early Dominator - Rickenbach Friday CFB 8* Florida Atlantic Owls (-) vs Marshall Thundering Herd @ 6 ET - Of course the Thundering Herd would love nothing more than to knock off the last undefeated team in Conference USA action. However, the Owls have played a much tougher schedule than the Herd and this is what the betting markets appear to be overlooking as they continue to pound Marshall in this one. As of very early gameday morning this line has dropped all the way down from as high as double digits earlier in the week to just 6.5 in many spots. I am happy to lay the points here considering that Marshall's 3 wins in CUSA action came against teams that are a combined 6-17. When the Thundering Herd finally stepped up and faced tougher competition they lost by double digits to a Florida International team that is now 5-2 overall on the season. Also, that game against the Golden Panthers was at Marshall! Now the Herd are at a 5-3 Florida Atlantic team that is 5-3 overall on the season and 4-0 in CUSA action. Owls non-conference action included facing Wisconsin and in terms of CUSA games they've faced (and defeated) North Texas and Western Kentucky - each of those teams are 5-3 this season. Certainly Marshall has the better numbers on defense this season but, again, strength of schedule must be factored in. Also, in addition to the home field edge here, the Owls certainly have the much stronger offense in this match-up. Florida Atlantic is averaging 47.2 points per game their last 6 games. Marshall has won all 4 meetings with the Owls so payback is certainly on order here! The Thundering Herd are on a 2-5 ATS run in November games and could run out of gas here on a short week and playing their 4th road game in the past 6 weeks and dealing with the heat and humidity of South Florida. Payback time for the Owls! 8* FLORIDA ATLANTIC

Early Dominator - Rickenbach Thursday CFB 8* Toledo Rockets (-) vs Northern Illinois Huskies @ 6 ET - Both these teams come into this game at 4-0 in conference action. However, the key is that the teams the Huskies have played entered this week with a combined overall record of 8-25 on the season! The Rockets have faced a couple of weak teams too but they also have faced two teams with overall winning records, Akron and Central Michigan, and Toledo won those games by a combined score of 78-31. Of course the betting markets are seeing a pair of teams undefeated in conference action and that have played to tight finishes in recent seasons and they're jumping all over the big dog here. That is why a game where the very first numbers to come up were double digits has been driven down to a 7.5 as of early gameday morning. I love to fade the masses and I think the Huskies are in for a "rude awakening" here as they finally are facing a tough MAC foe for the first time this season. The Rockets last 3 wins have all come by a margin of at least 20 points and Toledo is a long-term 30-16 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Northern Illinois had defeated the Rockets 6 straight times prior to last season's loss in this series. However, the Rockets aren't done getting revenge as they haven't beaten the Huskies in Toledo since the 2009 season! Payback is on order here and the Rockets offense (40.5 ppg, 520.6 ypg) will prove to be too much for the Huskies (27.9 ppg, 398.0 ypg). 8* TOLEDO

ESPN Dominator - Rickenbach Tuesday CFB 8* Miami (OH) Redhawks (+) @ Ohio University Bobcats @ 8 ET - The Redhawks might get QB Gus Ragland back tonight. Even if he does not play Billy Bahl looked solid in his 3rd straight game under center as he led Miami to victory versus Buffalo last week. The Bobcats have the better record this season but Ohio U has played a weaker schedule and they also have big games on deck with Toledo and Akron. The Bobcats injury issues are mounting. With the loss of RT Jared McCray for this game and RG Durrell Wood already having been injured, the entire right side of Ohio's offensive line has been impacted. Also, two of their projected starters at WR are out for this game as Keevon Harris has been downgraded to being out for this game and they lost Elijah Ball for the year before the season even started. Also, before the season started they lost returning safety Mayne Williams to injury and now DE Sam McKnight is out for this game. Truly the Redhawks are the healthier team and QB Ragland had been eyeing this game for his return. I love having the points in a rivalry game like this and this is "The Battle of the Bricks". Miami is seeking revenge for having lost the past two meetings and scoring a total of just 10 points in those two games. It is payback time here and the win versus the Bulls last week certainly helps the confidence factor. The Redhawks have allowed 21 points or less in 5 of their last 7 games and have a solid defense. One of the two games where Miami allowed more than 21 was against Notre Dame and of course that was expected! Ohio U comes into this game off of a dominating win over Kent State but the Golden Flashes offensive production (thanks in part to QB injuries) has been a disaster. Prior to holding Kent to 3 points, the Bobcats allowed an average of 33.3 points per game in their 6 prior games. That said, it's tough to cover a big number when you're giving up big points and you have a rather mediocre offense. Ohio U has some big point totals this season but they had been held under 400 yards in 3 of their 6 prior games before exploding against a bad Golden Flashes team last week. The Redhawks D has held 6 of their 8 opponents under 362 yards this season! 8* MIAMI (OH)

PAC-12 Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #173 Saturday 10* Top Play USC Trojans (-) @ Arizona State Sun Devils @ 10:45 ET - After everyone watched USC get blasted at Notre Dame last week no one will want the Trojans here. The fact is that Southern Cal made some key early mistakes against the Fighting Irish and it "snowballed" from thereon. This is helping to give us some great line value because USC is still a very high quality team and they have played a bit of a tougher schedule than Arizona State has. Also, the Sun Devils caught a break last week against Utah as it was Utes QB Huntley's first game back. Yes ASU also knocked off Washington the prior week but just how good were the Huskies anyway? Washington was indeed undefeated at the time but the Huskies had played a very weak schedule and, in fact, were a favorite of at least 28 points in 5 of their first 6 games. Keep in mind, before these two solid defensive performances for ASU, they had allowed 483.6 yards per game! I am not sold on the Sun Devils defense just yet! Now Arizona State takes on an angry USC team playing with a chip on its shoulder and, before last week's loss to the Irish, the Trojans had gained over 450 yards of offense in 6 of their first 7 games. USC beat the Sun Devils by 3 TDs last season and by 4 TDs the prior season! Remember too that ASU's win last week was at Utah (a very physical team) and the Sun Devils may not have much left in the tank here! The Trojans are 11-0, 100% ATS when they are favored and are off of a game where they allowed more than 35 points! Southern Cal makes a statement tonight and that record moves to 12-0, 100% ATS! 10* USC

Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Game #186 Saturday 8* Northwestern Wildcats (+) vs Michigan State Spartans @ 3:30 ET - A ranked Michigan State team opened up right around a pick'em in this game and, of course, the public and the betting markets are all over the Spartans. This line has been driven up to as high as a 3 as of early gameday morning and I'll gladly grab the home dog here. First off the Spartans are off of a miracle cover last week as they were laying about a TD versus Indiana and were down 9-3 before scoring two TDs in the final 6 minutes. Michigan State is simply an over-rated football team this season and they're likely to be exposed these next few weeks. The Spartans have Penn State and Ohio State on deck after this "tougher than it looks" match-up with Northwestern. The Wildcats defense has allowing an average of just 338 yards per game their last 5 games and that included match-ups with Wisconsin and Penn State! Northwestern is at home for the 3rd time in 4 weeks while the Spartans are on the road for the 3rd time in 4 weeks plus have a "lookahead" situation with the Nittany Lions and Buckeyes on deck! Of course the Spartans have a strong defense but their struggles on offense are evident this season with just 22.7 points per game and they've been held to 18 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. The Wildcats have averaged 447 yards per game at home this season while the Spartans have averaged just 308 yards of offense on the road this year. The line move has opened up great value here and Michigan State is on an 0-7 ATS run as a road favorite. The Wildcats are on a 9-3 ATS run in games played in Weeks 5 through 9 of a season. 8* NORTHWESTERN

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #204 Saturday 8* Ole Miss Rebels (-) vs Arkansas Razorbacks @ Noon ET - The loss of Austin Allen to injury at QB for Arkansas means Cole Kelley gets the start here. While Ole Miss also is without starting QB Shea Patterson, I like their replacement more than the Kelley for Allen situation. I also like the fact that Jordan Ta'amu gets this start at home. From a situational standpoint this is a great spot for Ole Miss as they're playing their 3rd straight home game while the Razorbacks are on the road for the 3rd time in 4 weeks. Also, Arkansas has lost 3 straight games by an average margin of 30 points per game! The Rebels have revenge from a 4 point loss at Arkansas last season as well as a loss (in 4 OT!) the last time Ole Miss hosted the Razorbacks. Prior to last week's loss to LSU, the Rebels were a perfect 3-0 at home this season. As for Arkansas, they have lost both road games and their other game played away from home (neutral site) this season. This line has dropped all the way down to a 3 but it is certainly worth noting that the Rebels are 4-0 SU and ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and the long-term numbers on that are 19-6 SU and 17-8 ATS. Good spot for a big home win as Ta'amu is a dual-threat QB who certainly has a ton of potential. You'll see that today! 8* OLE MISS

Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #401 Saturday 10* Top Play USC Trojans (+) @ Notre Dame @ 7:30 ET - The mystique of playing at Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend, IN causes a lot of shading of the line toward the Fighting Irish in home games. That is the case here and, simply put, it has resulted in phenomenal value for the better team. Southern Cal is on a mission to be a playoff team representing the Pac-12 Conference this season. The Trojans know they can ill afford another loss and they also have revenge against the Irish. Yes, USC did defeat them last year (rather handily too!) but they still remember the loss 2 years ago in South Bend where Notre Dame got the better of them despite the Trojans outgaining them by more than a football field! The Irish have not played an easy schedule, not at all, but Southern Cal's schedule has been even tougher. That strength of schedule edge for USC will come to the forefront here because Notre Dame also is fortunate to be 5-1 as they were outgained (again by more than a full football field) when they won at Michigan State earlier this season. 3 Spartans turnovers keyed that victory for the Irish. Give them credit of course but Notre Dame now faces a USC teams that is throwing for nearly 300 yards per game while the Fighting Irish are barely throwing for half that per game. Yes, ND does run the ball well but USC has been very tough against the run with just 118.8 rushing yards allowed per game the last 5 games. When Notre Dame is a favorite off of back to back wins (both victories SU and ATS) with the most recent win coming by a double digit margin, they've gone just 2-9 ATS! Look for Southern Cal to improve to 7-3 ATS in road games with a posted total between 63.5 and 70 points. 10* USC

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #398 Saturday 8* Florida State Seminoles (-) vs Louisville Cardinals @ Noon ET - Both teams are having tough seasons but Florida State has played the toughest schedule in the nation this year. The Cardinals defense has been awful this season. Taking a look at their last 5 games Louisville, of course, had an easy time with over-matched opponents like Kent State and Murray State. But, in their other 3 games, the Cards allowed an average of 562.7 yards per game! Compare that to a Seminoles defense that has had no cupcakes and yet is allowing only 330.6 yards per game on the season. FSU also has revenge from last season's embarrassing 63-20 loss at Louisville. The Noles get payback today and the drop in this line has opened up solid line value for us. I'll take it! Also, Louisville is 0-5 ATS when they are an underdog in conference play and coming off of a game where they allowed 35 points or more. After losing 45-42 at home versus Boston College last week, that perfect angle is in play here. Overall, the Cardinals are on a 3-14 ATS run dating back to last season and, though the Seminoles have been struggling at the betting window, the strength of opposition they have faced has had a lot to do with that. Look for last week's win at Duke to be a sign of things to come for the Noles. 8* FLORIDA STATE

ESPN Smash Pass Friday - Rickenbach CFB 8* Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (+) vs Marshall Thundering Herd @ 7 ET - Blue Raiders starting QB Brent Stockstill is doubtful for tonight's game but sophomore QB John Urzua now has filled in quite well and this would be his 6th straight game. The key for Urzua is minimizing turnovers and he has been much better about that on the home compared to on the road. Look for another big game from him here at home where he has 3 TDs against just 1 INT plus Urzua has completed 49 of 63 (78%) at home! Overall he has thrown for 292 yards per game in his last 4 games and I like the fact that the Middle Tennessee has played a tougher schedule thus far in comparison with Marshall. Though the Thundering Herd are 2-0 in conference action they've faced Old Dominion and Charlotte - teams that are a combined 2-11 on the season! The teams that MTSU has faced are a combined 6-2 in conference action and none of the 3 teams has a losing record. Also, the Blue Raiders won their lone home game in CUSA action thus far and they won it by 20 points! Middle Tennessee plays this game with revenge after losing badly at Marshall last season due to a 4-0 turnover deficit! The host is a perfect 4-0 ATS all time in this series and I look for the Blue Raiders to make that 5-0 tonight! 8* MIDDLE TENNESSEE 

Sunday Special - Rickenbach CFB 8* Western Michigan Broncos (-) vs Akron Zips @ 1 ET - The weather is a key to this play. While the rain that forced the postponement of this game from Saturday to Sunday has mostly ended, the key weather element today is the wind. It will be very windy with gusts up to 40 mph. This is going to force these teams to rely on the rushing attack and that is where the Broncos have a huge edge. Western Michigan's weakness on defense has been the passing attack but the Zips can't exploit that, especially with today's weather. However, as for the ground game, the Broncos have allowed only 68 rushing yards per game in their last 3 games while their own offense has run for an average of 302 yards per game! Western Michigan is ultra talented in the backfield with 3 tailbacks that all can create havoc for opposing defenses. The Zips are off of a big win but they faced a Ball State without their starting QB. I know the Broncos are off of a 7 OT win versus Buffalo but the fact they did hang on for the win PLUS now got an extra day of rest thanks to Mother Nature AND they're at home here means that we've got a solid "play on" situation here. The Broncos battles with USC and Michigan State early this season really helped set the tone for them and they've now won 4 straight games and their 3 home games this season have all been wins by an average margin of 32 points per game. By the way, Western Michigan also beat the Zips by a count of 41-0 last season. Akron is on a 3-12 ATS run as a road dog of 10.5 to 14 points. The Broncos are 6-1 ATS when they are off of a game where they scored more than 35 points and are facing a team that is off of 2 or more consecutive SU wins. 8* WESTERN MICHIGAN

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Game #174 Saturday 10* Top Play USC Trojans (-) vs Utah Utes @ 8 ET - The Trojans have underachieved so far this season but they're getting a little healthier now and the odds makers set this line "big" even though USC is on an 0-4 ATS run because they know what they're doing! Southern Cal is set to blast Utah here as the Utes are definitely not the same team without QB Tyler Huntley and he is listed as doubtful for this game. Utah is off of a home loss to Stanford and the Cardinal aren't the powerhouse they once were so that says a lot right there. The Utes could be suffering from unbeaten letdown here. Also, USC has revenge from a 31-27 loss at Utah last year. Southern Cal is 3-0 both SU and ATS the last 3 times they've hosted the Utes. Also, USC has played a MUCH tougher schedule this season than the Utes have. Look for battle tested Southern Cal to be ready to blast Utah in this one. The markets and the public will be fooled here because they're not properly factoring in the QB situation for Utah (having to turn to Williams) and the fact that Utah has played the much easier schedule and now faces a tremendous road test here against a revenge-seeking Trojans team that also plans to make a "statement" in this game. 10* USC

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Friday CFB 8* Syracuse Orange (+) vs Clemson Tigers @ 7 ET - With QB Kelly Bryant now listed as probable for this game, the line has jumped to as high as 24 as of early gameday morning. Keep in mind, the last thing the Tigers want to do is risk further injury to their starting QB in a game which they should win comfortably. In other words, I am looking for Clemson to win this game by about 10 to 17 points but that's it. They will look to coast to victory once they get up by a decent margin and Syracuse certainly has the potential for a backdoor cover too (if needed). The Orange offense has averaged 468.8 yards per game this season. Syracuse is also known for being much tougher to play against when they are at home. As a perfect example of that, the Orange got blown out 54-0 last year at Clemson but they only lost by 10 points the prior year when they faced them in Syracuse. I also like the fact that the Tigers have a bye on deck here. They could end up being a little too "relaxed" for this one as Clemson is 6-0 on the season and playing for a 7th straight week and certainly they are looking ahead to enjoying a much-needed week off. It could result in this game being much closer than many are expecting as Syracuse is averaging 32 points a game this season. Clemson is on a 2-4 ATS run as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points. The Orange are on a 5-2 ATS run as an underdog of 21.5 to 31 points. Also, the Orange have gone 8-4 ATS their last 12 games versus teams with a winning record and that includes a perfect 2-0 ATS this season. 8* SYRACUSE

Insider Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Game #351 Saturday 10* Top Play Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (+) @ UTSA Roadrunners @ 7 ET - This game is being played in my backyard as I live in the San Antonio area. As a matter of fact my 4-year university degree is from UTSA and I follow the Roadrunners closely. This is the perfect spot to fade them. They are 3-0 this season but truly are over-hyped at this point. They've played a super easy schedule as the 3 teams they have beaten are a combined 2-11 on the season. Also, the Runners are the most penalized team in the nation as they've averaged 103 penalty yards per game! That is going to eventually catch up with them in a close game and that is precisely what I am expecting here. UTSA is facing a revenge-minded conference foe as Southern Miss got embarrassed in their last game here (last October). The Golden Eagles lost by 23 even though they held a 31-17 edge in first downs! Needless to say it was a "fluke" final score and payback is on order here. The Southern Miss running back, Ito Smith, is one of the best backs in the conference. Their wide receivers, Allenzae Staggers and Korey Robertson, are both 6'1 and very athletic and will create some match-up problems for the UTSA secondary. The Golden Eagles have had this game circled and they were 3-0 ATS on the season before last week's embarrassing home loss to North Texas. That loss to the Mean Green helped to create additional line value here as well. UTSA does have North Texas on deck and they are 0-4 ATS the week before facing the Mean Green. Also, the Roadrunners entered this season just 1-5 ATS when they are a favorite of more than 6 points against an opponent seeking revenge. That is the case here and the Golden Eagles are going to give them all they can handle in this one which makes the big points very generous. 10* SOUTHERN MISS

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Game #387 Saturday 8* West Virginia Mountaineers (+) @ TCU Horned Frogs @ 3:30 ET - Oftentimes, when a team is rolling, the last thing they need is a break but they don't have a choice. That is the case here with a TCU team that is off to a 4-0 start this season but then had a bye week last week. Note that last season the Horned Frogs went 0-2 ATS when coming off of a bye. Another factor against TCU here is that they've been winning even though they're giving up huge yardage. The Horned Frogs allowed at least 463 yards in each of their last two games and yet managed to win each by an average of 16.5 points. In their final game before the bye they were actually outgained at Oklahoma State but managed to win by 13 thanks to 4 Cowboys turnovers. All of this has created line value here because, while TCU certainly should win this game, they are over-priced. West Virginia's defense certainly hasn't been impressive either but they're not the team laying nearly two touchdowns here! That said, it is the Mountaineers offense that will keep them in this game. As noted above, the Horned Frogs have been giving up some big yardage but have been taking advantage of turnovers. West Virginia has had 0 or 1 turnover in 3 of their 4 games and another solid effort from a Mountaineers offense that is averaging 596 yards of offense per game is going to keep pressure on TCU all game long. West Virginia's only loss this season was the opener against Virginia Tech but the Mountaineers did outgain the Hokies by 123 yards in that game! TCU is on a 6-16 ATS run as a favorite and the Horned Frogs are 0-5 ATS in home games with a posted total between 63.5 and 70 points. As you can see, TCU hasn't fared well in home games expected to be shootouts and this one certainly fits that description! I am expecting this play against situation that favors the Mountaineers to improve to a perfect 6-0 ATS! 8* WEST VIRGINIA

Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #194 Saturday 10* Top Play Virginia Tech Hokies (+) vs Clemson Tigers @ 8 ET - Virginia Tech has taken on a much easier schedule than Clemson but the Tigers schedule has been so tough that they could run out of gas here. Clemson is playing their 3rd tough game in a span of 4 weeks as the other tough match-ups were with Auburn and Louisville and now they take on a solid Virginia Tech team. The Hokies defense has settled in nicely after struggling versus West Virginia in the opener. Of course everyone is gunning for the Tigers this season and Virginia Tech is excited about this opportunity to host the defending national champs who, like the Hokies, are a perfect 4-0 this season. Clemson did give up over 400 yards in their only road game this season, at Louisville, and I feel this will be another tough test for the Tigers. Virginia Tech is loaded with confidence after their red hot start to this season and, of course, that makes them a very dangerous dog in this spot. The Hokies are 21-11 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points and, within that number, they are also a perfect 4-0 ATS as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points. The Tigers are an ugly 7-12 ATS as a road fave of 3.5 to 7 points. Keep in mind the Hokies have revenge from last season's ACC Championship Game loss to the Tigers and Clemson is without their kicker as he was lost for the season with an injury. The Tigers are on a 2-6 ATS run in conference action. The Hokies are on a 14-7 ATS run as a dog in conference action. 10* VIRGINIA TECH

ABC Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Game #148 Saturday 8* Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+) vs Florida State Seminoles @ 3:30 ET - The Seminoles have had a rough start to the season with all the schedule changes due to Hurricane Irma. Florida State sits at 0-2 on the young season and certainly looks to bounce back and get their first win under their belt with a W over Wake Forest in his one. However, the Noles do have a big game with Miami on deck. Considering that FSU did play Alabama their YTD numbers don't look too bad after 2 games but they certainly didn't play well against NC State. Now, with Miami on deck, and having won 21 of their last 25 meetings with the Demon Deacons, it would not surprise to see FSU underestimate Wake Forest here. Keep in mind, the Demon Deacons have certainly not played a tough schedule but the fact that they are a perfect 4-0 has allowed them to build up plenty of confidence. A revenge-seeking team that is a big home dog and that has had their confidence boosted is the very definition of a tough "out". That said, the Noles are going to have trouble putting the Demon Deacons away in this one. FSU is a long-term 25-36 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. WF is on a 12-6 ATS run as an underdog. Grab the generous points here as the Demon Deacons already have 4 games under their belt while FSU has played just two games so far. That is another edge for the home dog here. 8* WAKE FOREST

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Game #118 Saturday 8* East Carolina Pirates (+) vs South Florida Bulls @ Noon ET - The Bulls numbers look great but their schedule has been super soft! They've played Stony Brook, an FCS team, plus San Jose State, Illinois, and Temple. San Jose State is 1-4 SU, Illinois is 1-2 ATS, Temple is 0-4 ATS. Three underachieving teams that all have been struggling. The point is that the Bulls are laying quite a steep price here considering their weak schedule and the fact that they're on the road facing an East Carolina team that has a decent offense. The Pirates have averaged 321.8 passing yards per game this season. The Pirates defense has certainly been a weakness but they've got the offense to hang around in this game against an over-priced favorite. South Florida has dominated in this series and may overlook the Pirates as a result. They have a bye week on deck and may already be going into "relax mode" before playing the full 60 minutes in this one. The Bulls also have benefited greatly from being +10 in turnovers while the Pirates are -6 in turnovers this season. The result is line value here in a spot where I expect East Carolina to be excited about stepping up at home as they host a ranked conference foe. Keep in mind this is the first conference road game for the Bulls under coach Strong. 8* EAST CAROLINA

Earliest Cash Friday - Rickenbach CFB 8* Duke Blue Devils (+) vs Miami Hurricanes @ 7 ET - The Hurricanes have only played 2 games this season due to scheduling issues caused by, coincidentally, a hurricane! Miami really hasn't been able to get into a rhythm yet with all the scheduling complications and the Canes were only up 38-30 in the middle of the 4th quarter of last week's win over Toledo. Also, Miami's first win was over an FCS team as they faced Bethune Cookman. With that said, the Hurricanes really haven't been challenged yet and, again, they didn't look all that sharp versus the Rockets last week. Now the Canes make their first road trip of the season and they're facing a Blue Devils team that is 4-0 SU and ATS this season. Duke has faced some tougher competition than Miami has. Also, with the Hurricanes having dominated this series long-term, you know that Duke is fired up about this opportunity at home in a big weeknight match-up. I look for the Blue Devils to make the most of it. Though both teams have impressive stats on offense so far this season, the key edge favoring Duke is the strength of schedule as well as the fact that their defense is allowing 128 yards per game less than Miami's. Also, the Hurricanes have a big game on deck with Florida State. The Canes are on a long-term 7-11 ATS run as a road fave in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. The Blue Devils are on a 10-5 ATS run as an underdog and a long-term run of 15-5 ATS in home games with a posted total between 56.5 and 63 points! Remember too that the last time Duke hosted the Hurricanes they lost on a last-second crazy play with 8 laterals that really shouldn't have counted but ended up giving Miami the win over the Blue Devils at the final gun. Crazy finish and it's revenge time here. 8* DUKE

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Sunday CFB 8* East Carolina Pirates (+) @ Connecticut Huskies @ Noon ET - This game was originally scheduled for November 4th but got moved to a RARE Sunday date in late September due to the scheduling impacts of Hurricane Irma. As a result we get some RARE Sunday College Football here and I look for the underdog Pirates to respond after firing their defensive coordinator. Yes, East Carolina fired him BEFORE the Virginia Tech game and the Pirates still got throttled by the Hokies but that team is certainly at a much different level than the Huskies. Connecticut entered this season 14-35 the last 4 seasons! They only scored 20 TD's last year which was dead last in the nation. The Huskies averaged just 16 points per game on offense the last 3 seasons combined. Already this season they are struggling too as they only put up 27 in a win over Holy Cross - a team they should have blasted. The UConn defense has been giving up huge yardage too. While the same can be said of the Pirates defense, East Carolina has played the tougher schedule with games against West Virginia and Virginia Tech the past two weeks. In other words, this is the week for the Pirates to put it all together. They have the much better offense in comparison with the Huskies and I like the East Carolina D to respond here now that they've had some time since the DC was fired. Note that the Huskies are 0-7 ATS when they are at home after a non-conference game. Also, the Pirates are 9-0 ATS when they are a road dog of less than 6 points and they're coming off of a loss by double digits. Conference opener for both teams and a chance for winless East Carolina to have a fresh start. I look for them to take advantage and I certainly like the combined 16-0, 100% ATS factors in favor of the Pirates as detailed above. 8* EAST CAROLINA

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach Saturday 10* Top Play CFB Game #364: Wyoming Cowboys (-) vs Hawaii Warriors @ 10:15 ET - Wyoming is getting some help from the weathermen here. Hawaii has been known to struggle in cold weather games. The Warriors just aren't used to it. Even though the calendar shows September, it's already going to be getting downright cold in Laramie, Wyoming Saturday night (Cowboys also helped by this being a night game). Temperatures will likely be in the low 40s at kickoff and could even drop into the 30s as the game goes on. Additionally it will be chilly due to a very cold rain falling and the Warriors were already at a disadvantage simply because of playing on the road and in high altitude. Hawaii relies on their offense to stay in games and I expect them to struggle in the unusual conditions. As for the Warriors defense, they have allowed over 400 yards in each of their three games and, keep in mind, that included a very bad Massachusetts team and Western Carolina - an FCS team. As for the Wyoming defense, they did struggle against Oregon (who doesn't?) but in their other two games they allowed an average of just 229 yards per game. Historically speaking, the Cowboys have won each of their last 4 times hosting Hawaii and Wyoming went 3-1 ATS in those games. Also, this is a conference game and the Cowboys are on a 10-6 ATS in conference action while the Warriors are on a 4-12 ATS run in conference games. Also, as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points, Hawaii is a long-term 2-17 SU run and 5-14 ATS! The Cowboys have played the much tougher schedule and are just 1-2 on the season but the Warriors are on a 1-9 ATS run in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. 10* WYOMING

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Saturday 8* CFB Game #377: Arkansas State Red Wolves (+) @ SMU Mustangs @ 7 ET - Nice situation here for the Red Wolves. They're off their easy win versus an FCS team (Arkansas-Pine Bluff). Keep in mind, the Mustangs also had one of those earlier this season as they crushed Stephen F Austin. The key difference though is what happened in the other games for these teams. The Red Wolves fought hard in a 7-point loss at Nebraska in their season opener. As for the Mustangs, they actually did NOT outgain North Texas in their 22 point win over the Eagles. Then, in SMU's most recent game, they hung around with TCU for awhile but then fall apart as the game went on. It was a demoralizing loss because they felt it slip away as the game went on and TCU is their DFW rival. Each of the last 4 seasons, SMU has lost their next game after facing the Horned Frogs. The Red Wolves have a bye on deck and they are on an 8-3 ATS in their last 11 as they are 1-1 this season and wrapped up last season on a 7-2 run at the betting window. Even though Arkansas State is a Sun Belt team, they are up at the top of the conference each and every season and have a winning culture. As for SMU, they entered this season with an 8-28 SU record the last 3 seasons. Grab the undervalued dog here. 8* ARKANSAS STATE

Big Ten Network Day Game - Rickenbach Saturday 8* CFB Game #350: Nebraska Cornhuskers (-) vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ 3:30 ET - With the firing of their athletic director on Thursday, there are shockwaves going through Nebraska right now. However, one thing is for sure, the players know it is "put up or shut up time" and I expect a huge effort as a result. The Huskers didn't play well in their season-opening win over Arkansas State but their 7-point loss at Oregon certainly wasn't unexpected as they were a 14-point dog. Then in looking at their loss to Northern Illinois they outgained the Huskies 384 to 213 but were done in by turnovers. I firmly believe all this has served to give us fantastic line value here because now Nebraska, whom hasn't played as bad as the "bad rap" they're getting in some circles, is actually a manageable favorite against a bad Rutgers team that certainly has issues of it's own. The Scarlet Knights just don't belong as a Big Ten team. They are 6-18 the past two seasons and this season they already lost to a MAC team (just like Nebraska did last week) but, unlike the Huskers, Rutgers was outgained in their loss to a MAC foe. The Scarlet Knights are on a 6-13 ATS run as an underdog. Nebraska is 3-0 straight-up (and undefeated ATS) the past 2 seasons when they've entered a game on a losing streak of 2 games or more. Keep in mind too, this is the Scarlet Knights first road game this season. Also, this is a Big Ten opener so Nebraska will be fully focused and the Cornhuskers are 10-1 ATS when they are a favorite of more than 5 points coming off of a non-conference game. After being embarrassed by Northern Illinois last week, huge response here. 8* NEBRASKA

TV Game of the Week - Rickenbach Friday CFB 10* Top Play Virginia Cavaliers (+) @ Boise State Broncos @ 8 ET - The Broncos were actually outgained in last week's win over New Mexico and they failed to cover in the 28-14 win. Boise State returned only 9 starters coming into this season and, even though QB Brett Rypien is probable for this game, he has not been overly impressive early this season. That said, I feel the Broncos are overpriced here. Overall, this team has failed to cover 11 straight home games. You read that right, it is an 0-11 ATS run for Boise State on the Blue FieldTurf at Albertsons Stadium. Even when Boise State has played back to back home games it hasn't helped either as they are on a long-term run of 1-8 ATS in the 2nd game of back to back home games. Also, as a weekday home fave of more than 7 points, the Broncos are on an 0-8 ATS run! Boise State has a bye on deck but then they face BYU. The Broncos are on an 0-4 ATS run in their games that precede facing the Cougars. Ironically, Brigham Young is a "tie-in" feature here as it relates to this match-up with Virginia. That's because Cavaliers head coach Bronco Mendenhall used to coach BYU so he has plenty of familiarity with the Boise State program. Prior to Mendenhall coming to the Cavs, they were blown out at home (56-14) by the Broncos in 2015. Certainly the Cavaliers are looking to avenge that embarrassing home loss and Virginia is 6-1 ATS when playing with revenge against an opponent with a winning record. Both these teams come into this game having gone 2-1 this season and both have a bye on deck. While an upset is asking a lot I certainly do expect the revenge-minded Cavs to stay within single digits of the Broncos in this one! Boise State is averaging only 340.7 yards of offense per game this season and the Cavaliers passing offense alone is averaging 325 yards per game this season. Coming off of a confidence-building win by a huge margin over Connecticut last week, the Cavs are a very dangerous dog here. 10* VIRGINIA

Thursday ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB 8* Temple Owls (+) @ South Florida Bulls @ 7:30 ET - Certainly Temple has not impressed early this season but, keep in mind, South Florida was down 16-0 to a very poor San Jose State in Week 1 before they pulled away and won by 20. Then, the Bulls were actually tied with Stony Brook, an FCS team, in the 4th quarter before they pulled away and won by 14. The point is that, even though the Owls have struggled this season, they're getting nearly 3 touchdowns here against a Bulls team that hadn't truly looked good until they put it all together and played a complete game against Illinois last week. In that win over the Illini, they got 3 picks from the Illinois QB which certainly keyed the win. Note that Temple's QB has yet to thrown an INT this season so the Bulls defense is unlikely to be so fortunate here. Even though South Florida covered last week, that was their first cover the last 8 times as a favorite in a weekday game when coming off of a SU win. In other words, it is still a 1-7 ATS run for the Bulls as a weekday fave and coming off of a win and last week they had extra rest due to their game against UConn being postponed. This week USF will be on short rest having just played on Friday. As for the Owls, they have covered 6 straight weekday games against conference opponents! Look for that run to reach 7-0 ATS by the time this Thursday night affair is in the books. 8* TEMPLE

Game of the Week Top Play - Rickenbach CFB 10* Saturday Game #148 - Louisville Cardinals (+) vs Clemson Tigers @ 8 ET - Clemson, reigning national champs, gets a ton of respect from the betting markets. Of course when you're coming off of a championship season you should but the fact is that the Tigers lost a ton of talent from last year's team. A QB who threw for over 4,000 yards plus a running back who ran for over 1,000 yards and a receiver who had more than 1,000 yards gained on receptions last season. Certainly this is still a very talented team but they did lose a lot of starters from last year's squad. Of course those "holes" haven't showed up yet but as they now face a conference foe that is ultra talented and gunning for them, I think you'll see it first-hand today! The Cardinals have the edge as their defense, just like Clemson, is fantastic but Louisville has the extra edge at QB. Of course former Tiger Deshaun Watson is now in the NFL but the Cards Lamar Jackson is still at the collegiate level wrecking havoc on defenses. He will be the difference maker here. The Cardinals are on a 7-1 ATS run when they are an underdog of less than 6 points. Considering the big posted total here, the odds makers expect quite a bit of scoring. The Tigers are on a 5-10 ATS run long-term in road games with a posted total between 56.5 and 63 points. The fact that two high quality defenses are matched up and yet a big total is posted here tells you that some big plays are going to be made here. When all is said and done I certainly like the revenge-minded Cardinals and ultra-talented Jackson to be the ones making more of those big plays on offense! The Tigers offense is still adjusting after losing key talent from last year. 10* LOUISVILLE

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach CFB 8* Saturday Game #187 - LSU Tigers (-) @ Mississippi State Bulldogs @ 7 ET - Mississippi State, of course, will be amped up and hoping for the big performance at home necessary to knock off a strong LSU team. However, don't lose sight of the fact that the Bulldogs only won 5 games in the regular season last year. In fact, Mississippi State entered this season on a 6-9 SU run in their last 15 regular season games. Both the Bulldogs and Tigers have impressed early this season but of course the competition has been weak. The key here is that there is more of a difference between the current state of these two SEC foes than what is being factored into this line but we're getting line value because Mississippi State has played weak competition and hasn't been "exposed" just yet. The Tigers are the stronger team in the trenches and have much more in the way of game-changing speed and talent on both sides of the ball. LSU has won each of the last two meetings but by slim margins. That's because the Tigers have blown big leads in each game. They've learned their lesson and I expect them to keep their foot on the gas in this one. In other words, they again get up by double digits but this time they don't let the Bulldogs get back into it. The Tigers are 7-1 ATS as a favorite in a range of 3.5 to 10 points! Mississippi State is on a 3-6 ATS run in home games. 8* LSU

ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB 8* Saturday Game #115 - Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-) @ Boston College Eagles @ 3:30 ET - The Eagles were a small home dog last week versus Wake Forest and got blasted 34-10. That drops Boston College to 0-7 ATS the last 7 times they've been a home dog! This ATS losing streak dates back to the 2014 season and the long-term futility is likely to continue here. The Eagles defense is again playing quite well this season but so too is Notre Dame's. The difference in this game is that the play of the two offenses is light years apart! The Fighting Irish are off of a tight loss last week but that was against a quality SEC program as Georgia nipped Notre Dame. That has the Fighting Irish fighting mad for this one and the Eagles defense hasn't faced anything close to the offensive weapons that Notre Dame brings to this one. Keep in mind, Boston College has faced Northern Illinois and Wake Forest thus far. Now they take on a very dangerous offense this afternoon. Also, Notre Dame is poised to respond huge after the tight loss last week. They have a tough game at Michigan State next week which means this game is a must win for them. Though they only beat Boston College by 3 the last time they faced them (in 2015) that outcome was impacted by turnovers as the Irish outgained the Eagles by 145 yards in that game. Look for the Fighting Irish to improve to 21-12 ATS in road games with a posted total between 49.5 and 56 points while Boston College drops to 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games and loses for the 8th straight time (ATS too!) as a home dog! 8* NOTRE DAME

Philly's Finest Friday - Rickenbach NCAAF 8* Temple Owls (-) vs UMass Minutemen @ 7 ET - The Owls certainly have not impressed thus far as they were blown out by Notre Dame and then blew a 13 point lead against Villanova last week before eking out a 3 point win. Temple gave up a lot of yardage in the loss to Notre Dame and then also gave up a lot of passing yardage versus the Wildcats. The secondary of the Owls was supposed to be their strength this season. That said, those guys are playing with a chip on their shoulder here and have something to prove. They are hell-bent on shutting down UMass and the good news is that the Owls will benefit from taking on a Minutemen team that scored just 7 points against an FCS team, Old Dominion, last week. Massachusetts is now 9-42 since the start of the 2013 season as they're already 0-3 this season. Though each of their 3 games this season has been decided by 10 points or less, that does not mean they'll be able to compete with Temple here. The Owls barely got by UMass when these teams met 2 seasons ago but the Minutemen have regressed since then and the Temple talent level (even though down from last year) is still vastly superior to that of UMass. The Minutemen gave up 8 sacks in last week's game! Even though Massachusetts has revenge here, they actually entered this season on a 1-8 ATS run when playing with revenge. Also, the Owls entered this season on a 13-0 ATS run when facing an opponent playing with revenge. Additionally, Temple is 6-0 ATS when facing a team off of back to back straight-up losses and the Owls are on an overall 11-3 ATS run in home games. 8* TEMPLE

Contrarian Crusher - NCAAF Game #388: Rickenbach Saturday 10* Top Play USC Trojans (-) vs Stanford Cardinal @ 8:30 ET - The Trojans seek revenge for their loss by 17 points at Stanford last season. Keep in mind, star QB Darnold did not play in that game. Although USC struggled some in their eventual 18 point win versus Western Michigan last week, the Broncos are a quality football program and Southern Cal also could not be blamed if they were perhaps peeking ahead to this big Pac-12 battle. As for Stanford, they had a bye week after blasting Rice in Australia two weeks ago. As impressive as that win may seem, the Owls are dreadful and the Cardinal (after an early season bye) may struggle to match the Trojans intensity here as USC benefits from having just played last week (maintaining early season rhythm) and from facing a higher quality opponent. Stanford has held the upper hand in this series in recent years but the odds makers certainly are not stupid. The first numbers that were posted on this game were up near 10. It quickly moved down before the big money could be bet put the point is I side with the odds makers here and love the value of having a team that should win by double digits and yet they're laying less than a TD. Note that the Trojans are on a long-term 24-12 ATS run as a home favorite. In all home games the past 3 seasons, Southern Cal is 9-5 ATS. The Cardinal lost some key personnel from last year's team and that certainly was not an issue against a team like Rice but it will be an issue here against the revenge-minded Trojans. Southern Cal has won 10 straight games and I look for another one here as they cover the small number along the way. 10* USC

Daytime Dominator - NCAAF Game #309 - Rickenbach Saturday 8* Western Michigan Broncos (+) @ Michigan State Spartans @ 3:30 ET - The Broncos gave a valiant effort against a very strong Trojans team at USC last Saturday. Though Western Michigan fell short on the scoreboard, they showed that this solid MAC program isn't going to lay down for anyone even though they lost head coach PJ Fleck. The fact is that they're in very good hands with Tim Lester at the helm. At the same time, the fact is that the Spartans are in for more struggles this season. Remember they fell to 3-9 last season and now Michigan State returns very few starters this season. The fact that Sparty blasted a weak Bowling Green team (also from MAC but nowhere near the current level of Western Michigan program) is helping to give us line value here. Keep in mind the Spartans also have a bye on deck and then face Notre Dame and then start their Big Ten schedule. In other words, Michigan State could get caught looking ahead here while Western Michigan certainly is not going to be looking ahead to anything. They want this game against the "big boys" from in-state. Substantial ATS support here too! The Broncos are on a 6-0 ATS run as non-conference dogs of more than 3 points. Also, Western Michigan has covered 6 of their last 7 (86%) as a dog playing with revenge. The Broncos lost to Michigan State at home to open their 2015 season - that was when Spartans were much stronger and Western Michigan had not quite yet emerged. As for Michigan State, they are on a 2-11 ATS run when they are at home and off of a non-conference game. Also, the Spartans have covered just 1 of 9 (11%) as a non-conference favorite of less than 28 points. That system fits here as well! 8* WESTERN MICHIGAN

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Sunday NCAAF 8* UCLA Bruins (-) vs Texas A & M Aggies @ 7:30 ET - The Bruins have revenge on their minds in this one and that includes QB Josh Rosen. The UCLA quarterback got hurt and missed the rest of the season after early October but he faced the Aggies a year ago to the day and he threw 3 picks in that game. He still was able to rally the Bruins back and force overtime but UCLA then lost in OT. The noteworthy aspect of the 3 picks in that game is that Rosen threw a TOTAL of only 2 picks in the other 5 games he played last season. Indeed Rosen has revenge on his mind here and I expect him to lead the way to a convincing victory over an Aggies team that lost a lot of starters from last season and is also now having to test an inexperienced QB on the road against a tough Bruins defense. Even though Texas A & M head coach Sumlin has a history of strong starts with plenty of wins (and covers) in recent seasons in August and September games, I am happy to go contrarian here and lay the points with the revenge-minded Bruins whom are on a rough 3-10 ATS run in home games. This is not just "any" home game for UCLA! Also, note that the Bruins are on a long-term ATS run against SEC opponents. 8* UCLA

TV Top Game - Rickenbach Saturday NCAAF Game #203 - 10* Top Play Vanderbilt Commodores (-) @ Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders @ 8 ET - Sure Middle Tennessee State is seeking revenge but this line drop from an opener of Vanderbilt -6 to now just a 3 point favorite as of gameday morning is a huge value for the Commodores. Vandy has come a long way in recent seasons and returns a solid starting group. This is still a case of an SEC team versus a CUSA team and the Commodores are also no longer the SEC's doormat! Yes the Blue Raiders threw the ball very well versus Vandy last season but the Commodores improvement on defense came as the season went on. They allowed an average of only 20.8 points per game in their final 8 regulars season games. The MTSU defense is a concern here. Not only are you talking about Conference USA talent but also the Blue Raiders are replacing their entire defensive line. Keep in mind that is part of the same front seven that Vandy ran all over for 234 rushing yards per game in the last two meetings. The Commodores are on a 7-1-1 ATS run against Conference USA opponents. Also, Middle Tennessee State is a long-term 0-4 ATS as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points and now this line is all the way down to a +3 and giving the Blue Raiders even less value here. Look for the road fave to roll again. 10* VANDERBILT

ABC Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach Saturday NCAAF Game #202 - 8* Florida Gators (+) vs Michigan Wolverines @ 3:30 ET - The big story here is all the suspensions for Florida. The key is that this has opened up even greater line value for the Gators. Keep in mind, Michigan comes into this season with only 5 returning starters. The point is that the Gators losing some players for this game just means that the rosters are a little more evened out! Florida is still loaded with talent and this is an even match-up even with the suspensions. The Gators football program also certainly hasn't forgotten the 41-7 beatdown they were handed on New Years Day 2016. Time for a little payback here and the Florida suspensions made a lot of headline but if you look at which of those players were starters (not many) and the other depth the Gators have at those spots, you will find those suspensions are not as impacting as you would think. Florida's New Years Day loss is still etched in their memories but that is one of just 6 times the Gators have failed to cover in their last 21 neutral site games. Also, the Wolverines wrapped up last season covering just 1 of the last 6 games in which they were a favorite! The Gators are on a 6-1 ATS run in neutral site games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points. Michigan is 0-4 ATS the last 4 times they've been a neutral field favorite in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. 8* FLORIDA

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NCAAF Saturday Game #177 - 8* California Golden Bears (+) @ North Carolina Tar Heels @ 12:20 ET - With both teams going through significant changes from last season, I am happy to back the big dog in this match-up. The Tar Heels have a huge game on deck with conference rival Louisville while the Golden Bears have only Weber State on deck. Also, California is on a fantastic 7-0 ATS as a non-conference road dog of more than 3 points. Look for defensive-minded head coach Justin Wilcox to have the Golden Bears playing a completely different brand of football early this season compared to the all offense, no defense style of his predecessor Sonny Dykes. While both teams are undergoing changes at the QB position, Cal returned more starting firepower at the surrounding skill positions and I expect this to be a difference-maker Saturday as well. Also really like the coordinator hires that were made for the Golden Bears in support of Wilcox. He and his OC and DC will have the troops ready to go in this one and the points are generous here! The Bears are on a 5-2 SU and ATS run in September games and also are a long-term 10-3 ATS in games where they are a road dog in a range of 10.5 to 14 points. 8* CALIFORNIA

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Friday NCAAF 8* Colorado Buffaloes (-) vs Colorado State Rams @ 8 ET - The Rams absolutely crushed Oregon State last week. Or wait...did they really? Yes I know the final scored shows a 59-27 shellacking in favor of Colorado State. However, the Beavers were only outgained by 30 yards through the air and 39 yards on the ground. For the game Oregon State actually gained over 450 yards of offense but the difference in the game was 5 Beavers turnovers. Certainly not taking anything away from what the Rams did in that game but the fact is that there has now been an over-reaction in the betting markets. Colorado State opened up as an 8.5 point dog here and now the line is just 3.5 as of gameday morning. Given me the small favorite in this one as we take advantage of the huge value offered by this line move. Yes it is a revenge spot for the Rams but Colorado is now a PAC-12 team that annually plays a much tougher schedule than Colorado State does. Also, the Buffaloes have held the upper hand in this series recently with the Rams getting the cash only 3 times in the last 10 meetings! Certainly Colorado lost key personnel from last year's defense but there was certainly some talent waiting in the wings too. The Rams are 0-4 SU and 0-3-1 ATS the past two seasons in games played on a neutral field. Also, Colorado State is 5-12 SU (and 6-10-1 ATS) long-term in games played against PAC-12 foes while the Buffaloes are 14-9 SU against Mountain West Conference opponents. Additionally as a neutral site favorite of 3.5 to 7 points, the Buffs are 7-3 SU (and 7-3 ATS) as all 7 wins have covered. I expect the same result here. 8* COLORADO

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Thursday NCAAF 8* UL-Monroe Warhawks (+) @ Memphis Tigers @ 9 ET - While it may seem "scary" to back a 4-8 team from the Sun Belt Conference against an American Athletic Conference team that has gone bowling each of the last 3 seasons, the fact is there is tremendous value here with UL-Monroe. Traditionally, one of the big neutralizers when a game has the potential to be a mismatch is the weather. That said, I expect that to be fully in play here as the epic storm that is Harvey is now meandering through the southeastern part of the country after ravaging Texas with horrific weather. With very significant rainfall and windy conditions expect throughout this game, it will be tough for Memphis to get a huge margin of victory. Also, the Warhawks are in their 2nd year under head coach Matt Viator and they did show improvement under him last season. As for Memphis, their win total dropped again last season as the Tigers have gone from 10 to 9 to 8 wins successively the last 3 seasons. Also, while UL-Monroe has another non-winnable non-conference game on deck (at Florida State), the Tigers do have their conference opener on deck as they play Central Florida next week. With Memphis in a lookahead spot and just trying to survive the elements tonight, I feel there is great line value with the big underdog. Also the Warhawks are on a 4-2 ATS run as a road dog of 21.5 or more points. Look for Memphis to drop to 1-3 ATS as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points. 8* UL-MONROE

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NCAAF Saturday 8* Hawaii Warriors (+) @ Massachusetts Minutemen @ 6 ET - Many are looking at Massachusetts in this one since they have revenge from losing last year's season finale at Hawaii. However, out of all 130 FBS schools, the Minutemen very well may be the worst team in the nation. That said, I certainly see value in fading them here with a Hawaii team that made significant strides last season and got back to a bowl game. UMass is laying a full field goal here even though they are just 9-39 SU the last 4 seasons. Also note that the Minutemen are only 1-8 ATS when playing with revenge! The fact is that revenge certainly has a tendency to be "over-played" and this is particularly true when the team seeking revenge is a very poor team. The Warriors responded well under head coach Nick Rolovich last season and the fact they opened the season at Australia plus had to play Michigan at The Big House plus went to (and won!) a bowl game has this Hawaii team well prepared for this long road trip to open up the new season. Hawaii has tremendous talent on offense and the Minutemen don't have the firepower to keep up. The Warriors are a long-term 5-1 ATS in August games while UMass is 0-3 ATS in August games. Hawaii also is 3-1 ATS the past 2 seasons in road games with a posted total between 56.5 and 63 points. The Minutemen are getting attention here in the revenge spot but the value is with the road dog. 8* HAWAII

National Championship Game - Rickenbach CFB 10* Top Play Clemson Tigers (+) vs Alabama Crimson Tide @ Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida on Monday @ 8:30 PM ET - Alabama, it goes without saying, is a phenomenal football program. There is no doubt about that fact. However, that doesn't mean that value can't be had in going against them. The Crimson Tide are here because they got by Washington last weekend. I want to remind everyone though that the Huskies come from the Pac-12 and that conference went 0-6 ATS in the bowls! In other words, one could argue that Alabama certainly should have done a lot more damage than they did against Washington last week. Yes, the Crimson Tide did get enough for the cover in the 24-7 win but their offense only gained 326 yards in that game. Believe it or not, that was the 4th time in their last 6 games that Alabama has been held to less than 373 yards of offense! That said, is the firing of offensive coordinator Kiffin and his replacement with Sarkisian really going to be a good thing before a huge match-up with a high-quality foe? I highly doubt that! The Clemson D just stepped up HUGE against the Buckeyes last week in their 31-0 win as the Tigers held Ohio State to just 215 yards. In fact, in 4 of their last 6 games, Clemson held their opponents under 278 yards of offense! I expect the Tigers, playing with revenge and playing their best defense of the season, to bring their "A game" again in this one. As for their offense, it is one of the most dynamic in the country and Clemson has also been amazingly consistent. They have averaged 502.9 yards per game this season and, they have gained over 441 yards per game in each of their last 12 games. While one could argue that Alabama faced the tougher schedule this season, the SEC overall was not nearly as strong as it was in past seasons. The "playing field" here has truly leveled out and the value is with the revenging dog getting a full TD in this one. The Tigers are on a 6-1 ATS run as an underdog and a long-term run of 31-14 ATS as an underdog in a range of 3.5 to 10 points. The Crimson Tide had just 18 first downs in last year's Championship game while allowing 31. The Tigers had to get in the backdoor for that cover but the stats do tell a better story here. This year I would not be surprised to see the outright upset and will gladly grab the big points here. 10* Top Play CLEMSON on Monday Night

Bowl Game of the Year - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions (+) vs USC Trojans in Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA @ 5 ET Monday - The Nittany Lions, as usual, are getting no respect. The Buckeyes got invited to the CFB Playoffs, instead of Penn State who beat them head to head and then also won the Big Ten Championship over Wisconsin. Regardless of the "ugly" win over Ohio State and the fact that they had some "luck" in the rally over the Badgers for the conference championship, this is a strong Nittany Lions team. They are confident, their defense is solid, their offense is surging, AND perhaps most important of all, they're playing with a chip on their shoulder here. They feel disrespected and are out to make a statement in this game by knocking off USC. The Trojans certainly got hot this season and I have plenty of respect for them. However, the Pac-12 has looked weaker and weaker the more the bowl performances have come in. Washington couldn't move the ball in their bowl game. Colorado got crushed by Oklahoma State in their bowl game. Washington State lost to Minnesota in their bowl game. Utah won their bowl game by only 2 points and Stanford won their bowl game by just 2 points. The point is that these are the types of teams that USC played all season long and yet now they're supposed to beat the Big Ten Champion Nittany Lions by more than a TD. I feel the Trojans are being over-rated here. They built up their stats with games against Pac-12 weaklings like UCLA, Oregon, Cal, Arizona, and Arizona State. Those teams had a combined record of 21-39 this season. In tougher games away from home, the Trojans lost at Utah and at Stanford and got absolutely crushed in a neutral site game versus Alabama. Does that sound like a team a that is a full TD better than the Big Ten champs? I say no way. Another thing that is hard to put a measurement on is momentum and confidence and moxie. Penn State has all 3 as they have rallied from huge deficits to win the biggest of games and they've won 9 straight games after a 2-2 start. As you can see, the Nittany Lions have momentum, confidence and they "never say never" as shown in the Big Ten Championship Game. Look for USC to drop to 0-5 in their last 5 neutral field games. As for the Nittany Lions, I look for them to improve to 5-1 SU in neutral site games but I'll definitely grab all the points I can get with this dangerous dog. They have averaged 328 passing yards per game in their last 4 games and look for RB Saquon Barkley to have a huge game as he is refreshed after the break. 10* PENN STATE

Outback Bowl - Rickenbach 8* Iowa Hawkeyes (+) vs Florida Gators @ Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL @ 1 ET Monday - The Hawkeyes defense (17.9 points per game) is just as good as the Gators. In fact, Iowa allowed a total of just 23 points in their last 3 games of the regular season. Florida has allowed 31 points or more in 3 of their last 5 games. While the Gators wrapped up the season with back to back losses, the Hawkeyes come into the bowl game riding the momentum of 3 straight wins and they scored 34 points per game in their final two games of the season. The Gators offense has been held to 16 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. Florida's injury list is also a much longer one than that of Iowa. The Gators are banged up and the Hawkeyes are hot at the right time. Iowa is on a 6-3 ATS run in games where the line is in a range of +3 to -3 and Florida is on a 2-4 ATS run in games where the line is anywhere from +3 to -3. Big value with the defensive dog in this one. 8* IOWA

Cotton Bowl - Rickenbach 8* Wisconsin Badgers (-) vs Western Michigan @ AT & T Stadium in Arlington, TX @ 1 ET Monday - Western Michigan is 13-0...and yet they've played no one. Seriously. With all due respect to the Broncos for not faltering and coming up with an amazing undefeated record, let's keep in mind that they play in the MAC which is one of the weakest conferences in CFB. The Broncos toughest games this season were as a 3 point dog versus Northwestern and a 3 point favorite with Illinois. They did dominate an Illini team that went on to go 3-9 on the season but they only snuck by the Wildcats by a single point and that Northwestern team is a far cry from the strength of the Big Ten team their facing Monday. Wisconsin is absolutely one of the best Big Ten teams and they have a tremendous defense that is in a foul mood after the way they failed to close the door on Penn State in the Big Ten Championship. That means a huge effort is coming from the Badgers D here and they often dominate teams (allowed 17 points or less in 10 of their first 12 games this season). The Badger offense can pound the ball on the ground and the Broncos D line is going to have trouble with the powerful Badgers O line. Wiscy ran the ball extremely well to wrap up the season. Western Michigan's D did allow 200+ rushing yards in 5 of their last 10 games despite facing a weak schedule. To put that in perspective, the Badgers D (even with facing a tough schedule) never allowed more than 185 rushing yards this entire season. Look for the Badgers to dominate this one in the trenches and that should lead to a victory by a double digit margin. 8* WISCONSIN

Playoff Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach CFB 10* Top Play Clemson Tigers (+) vs Ohio State Buckeyes in Fiesta Bowl @ University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, AZ @ 7 ET - I am not going to waver from my pre-season prediction which did have Clemson in the national championship game. That said, I do expect them to grab the outright victory in this match-up but will certainly take any and all available points here! Both the Buckeyes and the Tigers lost a lot of key talent from last season's teams and yet all the younger players certainly gained valuable experience this season as the year went on and each team is here after losing only 1 game apiece this entire season. The key for Clemson is their dynamic offense as they did return 8 starters on that side of the ball and QB Deshaun Watson has delivered another huge season. The Tigers have the much better passing attack in this game (they average 333 passing yards per game whereas the Buckeyes average only 221 passing yards a game). Certainly I have a ton of respect for coach Urban Meyer and his long-term success (including bowl games) in his career. However, the Buckeyes loss to Penn State (coupled with the fact that the Nittany Lions won the Big Ten Championship) means Ohio State truly shouldn't even be here. Trust me I understand how the system works but a team that won the conference (PSU) and also beat the Buckeyes head to head is the team that should represent in the playoffs. I am not saying that this is on the minds of OSU, not in the least. I am just saying that "turnabout is fair play" and the Buckeyes didn't deserve to get their ticket punched to the playoffs and I look for the bounces of the ball to go Clemson's way in this one. The Tigers can certainly "make their own breaks" in this one as the speed of their offense all over the field is going to give the vaunted defense of OSU plenty of trouble in this one. Also, don't underestimate the strength of the defensive line of of the Tigers. Their rush defense is arguably just as good as that of the Buckeyes and, in terms of QB pressure, Clemson had 46 sacks this season while Ohio State only had 26 sacks. Looking at their final 7 games of the season, the Buckeyes did have 2 blowout wins but the other 5 games included a pair of overtime victories, a pair of wins by a combined total of only 5 points, and the loss to the Nittany Lions. This Ohio State team is clearly not the dominant team of old and I like Clemson (only loss was by a single point in a game they out-yarded Pitt by 166 yards) to be in this one all the way and to get the W thanks to their potent offense leading the way. The Tigers are on a 5-1 ATS run as an underdog and long-term it is a 58-35 ATS run in the underdog role. 10* CLEMSON plus the points Saturday night

Playoff Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB 8* Washington Huskies (+) vs Alabama Crimson Tide in Peach Bowl @ Georgia Dome in Atlanta, GA @ 3 ET - Similar to Kansas State head coach Bill Snyder, Washington head coach Chris Peterson has always enjoyed special success (and almost seems to relish) when in the role of an underdog. Peterson certainly has his wish here as he and the Huskies are huge underdogs against Alabama and are basically being given "no chance" to upset the Crimson Tide by most prognosticators. While I am certainly not calling for the outright upset here I am saying that the 2 TD spread should prove to be far too generous. Peterson, who of course was with Boise State before coming to Washington, has gone 6-3 SU (and ATS) in bowls. This includes a perfect 3-0 ATS mark for Peterson as a dog and 2 of those bowl ATS victories as dogs were outright upsets! After the Huskies lone loss this season, they responded by winning their final 3 games of the season by a combined score of 130 to 45. Two of those teams had combined records of 18-5 at the time Washington played them and those opponents were certainly two of the top teams in the PAC-12 this season. Now much is being made of the strength of the SEC and that the Huskies have no chance against an SEC foe. However, the SEC teams have gone just 3-4 so far in these bowls and the only win that came by double digits was Tennessee yesterday and they played a Nebraska team without their star QB (and others) so the big Vols win was not a shock. Certainly the Crimson Tide are not just "any" SEC team but, keep in mind, these teams that have under-performed in the bowls include the same type of SEC teams that Alabama beat to get to their 13-0 record. The Crimson Tide did allow 400+ yards of passing to Arkansas and Ole Miss in the regular season and Huskies QB Jake Browning has had a tremendous season. Washington had 300+ yards of passing in 5 of its last 7 games before it simply relied on its ground game to dispatch Colorado in the PAC-12 Championship Game. The Huskies aerial attack can absolutely keep them in this game and the Washington defense allowed just 17.2 points per game and 316.2 yards per game this season. Most everyone is expecting a complete thrashing here but they are underestimating the coaching ability of Peterson and the talent level that this veteran group (returned 15 starters this year) of Huskies has fired up and ready to for this big game opportunity. 8* WASHINGTON

#1 Bowl Top Side - Rickenbach CFB 10* Top Play Michigan Wolverines (-) vs Florida State Seminoles in Orange Bowl @ Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL @ 8 ET Friday - Many seem surprised to see Michigan as a TD favorite over Florida State in this match-up. As a result, it also seems that the Seminoles are an extremely popular choice in this game. Certainly the dogs have dominated the bowls thusfar but what I see in this match-up is a game that will be dominated by the defense of the Wolverines. Michigan allowed just 12.5 points per game and only 252.7 yards per game this season. The Wolverines allowed only 280 yards per game in their two losses this season. Compare this with Florida State's three losses where their porous defense allowed over 500 yards in every single game! The Noles also are the much more banged up team heading into this bowl game as one can plainly see by comparing the two injury reports of these teams. All of Michigan's wins this season came by a double digit margin and fiery head coach Harbaugh is hungry (and has his team hungry) after that tough OT loss to Ohio State that prevented "bigger things" for the Wolverines. Can you imagine the pent up anger and frustration that this Wolverines defense is about to unleash on the Seminoles in this game? This is a fired up team and I also expect a big game from a much healthier Wilton Speight (QB) in this game for Michigan. It's amazing he even tried to play against Ohio State with the shoulder injury. He's had 5 weeks since then to heal up and a solid Wolverines ground game will also keep the FSU defense off balance. Don't be fooled by the solid season-ending performance of FSU as they faced 3 weak offenses. This is an FSU defense that, prior to that 3-0 ATS run had given up 450 yards or more in 5 of their 7 prior games and the two games they didn't were one played in a hurricane and one played against the weak offense of Wake Forest. Make no mistake, the Seminoles defense is vulnerable here and the Wolverines defense is anything but! Look for the Michigan D, their solid edges in the trenches, their special teams advantage, and their high level of motivation to prove to be the big keys in this one. FSU is on a 1-4 ATS run in games played on a neutral field. The Wolverines are 5-2 SU and ATS in games played after a loss to a conference rival. 10* MICHIGAN

1st of 3 star rated Bowl Picks Friday. The other 2 are 10* Top Plays. Here is the 8*: Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB 8* North Carolina Tar Heels (+) vs Stanford Cardinal in Sun Bowl in El Paso, TX @ 2 ET - The Cardinal finished up the season winning 5 straight games so they certainly appear to be the "play on" team here based on momentum. However, those 5 wins came against a 5-7 team, a pair of 4-8 teams, and a pair of 3-9 teams. In fact, the only challenging opponents that Stanford has faced in their last 10 games were Washington and Washington State. The Cardinal got blasted by a combined 86-22 in those games. While the Tar Heels are without RB Elijah Hood in this game (medical reasons), the decision on the part of Stanford's Christian McCaffrey to "skip" this game because he is preparing for the NFL draft is the bigger blow! Not only does that hurt the Cardinal mentally, it truly crushes an offense that is otherwise "pedestrian" anyway! Stanford just does not move the ball well and QB Keller Chryst is more of a "game manager" QB who is just asked to not make mistakes while the Cardinal try to pound away with their ground game. I am well aware of the Tar Heels defense being a weakness but we've seen time and time again in this bowl season that lesser defenses have been able to rise to the occasion and shut down sub-par offensive units. North Carolina is not as impacted by losing Hood for this game because their offense revolves around QB Mitch Trubisky anyway and he has a 28-4 TD-INT ratio. He and the Tar Heels are very hungry for this bowl win and they went 8-3 this season after losing their season opener and one of their losses came by just a single point. After losing to NC State in their season finale, look for North Carolina to come up big in the Sun Bowl. The Heels went 4-1 SU against teams with a winning record this season and I look for them to drop the Cardinal to 0-3 SU and ATS in games against teams with a winning record this season. 8* NORTH CAROLINA

Bowl Insider Top Play Thursday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys (+) vs Colorado Buffaloes in the Alamo Bowl @ the Alamodome in San Antonio, TX @ 9 ET Thursday - The Cowboys certainly have more bowl experience. This is the Buffaloes first bowl since 2007 whereas Oklahoma State is in its 11th straight bowl. Certainly OSU is looking to atone for last year's poor result in the Sugar Bowl as they lost 48 to 20 to Ole Miss. There are some key match-up edges here. Even though the Buffaloes pass defense was fantastic this season, they lost their defensive coordinator heading into this bowl game as Jim Leavitt took a job in Oregon. The Buffs defense is going to be kept off balance because the Oklahoma State offense is so well-balanced. On the ground they have the elusive speedster in Justice Hill and then the pounding punisher in senior Chris Carson. Their ground game will open things up for the aerial attack on the Colorado defense and OSU QB Mason Rudolph has thrown for 25 TD's and just 4 INT's this season. Overall, Oklahoma State averages nearly 500 yards of offense per game. Even though the Cowboys lost at Oklahoma to wrap up the regular season, they gained over 400 yards. Comparing that to Colorado' last game, the Buffaloes were held to just 163 yards of offense in the Pac-12 Championship game where they were blasted by Washington. The Cowboys have the edge not only on offense but also special teams and there are a lot of OSU fans in Texas...much more than Colorado and, as a result, the site edge here (in San Antonio) also goes to Oklahoma State. The Buffaloes are 0-3 ATS when off of a bye week and the Cowboys are 3-0 ATS this season in games where the line is between +3 and -3. Getting the +3 here with OSU is simply an added bonus as I do expect them to win outright. Grab the +3 here just in case though. 10* OKLAHOMA STATE

Daytime Dominator Thursday - Rickenbach CFB 8* South Florida Bulls (-) vs South Carolina Gamecocks in Birmingham Bowl @ Legion Field in Birmingham, AL @ 2 ET Thursday - There is a tremendous energy around the South Florida football program right now. They have a new head coach, Charlie Strong, coming in from Texas. They have a true 2017 Heisman candidate in QB Quinton Flowers who is a tremendous dual-threat quarterback with his running ability. The Bulls have scored at least 30 points in 16 straight games for the longest streak in the nation. That is significant here because the Gamecocks where held to 14 points or less in more than half of their games this season. I certainly respect the fact that South Carolina is an SEC program but looking at strength of schedule on the season, their schedule was truly not much tougher than the one South Florida played. I also know that dogs have dominated these bowls but this is a game where I expect a large favorite with too much offensive firepower (as well as motivation) to simply run away on the scoreboard. USF is fired up about the opportunity to play an SEC team in this bowl game and they want to make up for last year's loss to Western Kentucky in the Miami Beach Bowl. The Bulls are on a 13-5 ATS run as a favorite. The Gamecocks went 1-3 ATS in non-conference action. South Carolina is a young team and this veteran Bulls team has a powerful enough offense (515 ypg) to be the difference maker here. The weakness of USF is on defense but they're fired up here, will be flying all over the field, and the young Gamecocks offense averaged a putrid 336 yards per game this season. 8* SOUTH FLORIDA

Russell Athletic Bowl ATS Blowout - Rickenbach CFB 8* Miami Hurricanes (-) vs West Virginia Mountaineers @ Camping World Stadium in Orlando, FL @ 5:30 ET Wednesday - West Virginia is ranked. Miami is unranked. The Mountaineers went 10-2 on the season. The Hurricanes went 8-4 on the season. With that said, doesn't it look funny to see the Canes as the favorite in this one? Don't be fooled by the line as the fact is that Miami is the better team and when they win (8-4 SU) they also cover (8-4 ATS). Not only are did they go a perfect 8-0 ATS in their 8 SU wins this season, head coach Mark Richt has an incredible 94-45, 68% ATS mark in SU wins in his career. In this particular match-up, the Hurricanes have the edge on defense and special teams while truly the offenses are about equal. The Mountaineers gain more yards but the Canes score more points - a little more efficiency for Miami. As for the defense, West Virginia allowed nearly 500 yards per game in their last 5 games of the season. The Hurricanes only allowed 353.8 yards per game on the season. Miami also wrapped up the regular season allowing only 16 points per game in their last three games. West Virginia benefited greatly from turnovers late in the season. That helped keep points off the board but also masked the fact that the defense was constantly getting gouged for big yardage. The Hurricanes will be able to do plenty of damage here as they piled up yardage late in the season with plenty of big performances from QB Brad Kaaya during this stretch. He ended the season with a solid 23-7 TD-INT ratio. Miami has a long-term mark of 9-4 SU against Big 12 opponents while West Virginia is an ugly 10-22 ATS long-term against ACC opponents. The Mountaineers have lost 7 of their last 9 SU when they are an underdog while the Hurricanes are 19-6 SU the last 25 games in which they were a favorite and, as noted above, head coach Richt has a phenomenal ATS rate in games in which his teams get the SU win. Very low number here and I'll gladly lay it! 8* MIAMI

Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB 10* Top Play Minnesota Golden Gophers (+) vs Washington State Cougars in Holiday Bowl @ Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, CA @ 7 ET - We're getting extreme line value here because of the Minnesota suspensions that were then followed by a potential boycott by the Golden Gophers team. All that has simmered down and yet we now have a team getting double digits that originally opened up as less than a TD underdog in this game. Of course the result of all this is some great line value with a team that brings the physicality of a Big Ten unit to this match-up with a Pac 12 team that stumbled down the stretch. I do have a lot of respect for the Cougars offense but the Washington State defense is a definite weakness. Look for Minnesota's offense to take advantage of that and this is a Golden Gophers team that, prior to their loss at Wisconsin in the regular season finale, had not lost a game by more than 7 points this entire season. The Cougars have played the tougher schedule of these two schools this season but Washington State finished the regular season with back to back disappointing losses. The Cougars also didn't travel all that great this season...at least not well enough to warrant this large point spread here. Washington State went 3-2 away from home with only 1 win by more than 5 points. The Cougars last 3 games away from home produced an 0-3 ATS mark. Look for the Golden Gophers to rally around the entire "distraction" and possibly even get the upset here but certainly they should at least get the cover. The Cougars were only 1-3 ATS this season against teams with a winning record and also are on a 1-4 ATS run the past 3 seasons as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. The Golden Gophers are on a 10-2 ATS run when off of a loss against a conference rival and they also went 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season. 10* Top Play MINNESOTA Tuesday

Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB 8* Temple Owls (-) vs Wake Forest in the Military Bowl @ Navy-Marine Corps Stadium in Annapolis, MD @ 3:30 ET Tuesday - Many will be hesitant to lay the big points here because of the Wake Forest defense. However, the Demon Deacons simply are not a very good football team. Their offense is horrible and the only win they had this season against a team that finished the year with more than 4 wins was a victory over Indiana. In that game Wake Forest actually was outgained by the Hoosiers by a margin of 611 to 352! So that right there (outgained by 259 yards!) is actually the Demon Deacons "big win" this season. Now I am well aware of the fact, of course, that Temple has made a coaching change heading into this one but Owls interim head coach Ed Foley will do just fine against Wake Forest head coach Dave Clawson as Foley has known him for many years. In fact that actually adds a bit of "spice" to this match-up and the better offense (Temple 35 points per game in their last 12 games) won't hesitate to put up big points to pull away as this game goes on. The Demon Deacons only went 1-3 ATS in non-conference action and the lone cover was the "bogus" one against Indiana. Temple is on an insane 12-0 ATS run and they also want to atone for finishing last season on a down note as they lost to Toledo in the Boca Raton Bowl. This Owls team finishes up a record-setting season the right way and has all the momentum here. 8* TEMPLE

Monday Top Bowl Play - Rickenbach 10* Top Play N.C. State Wolfpack (-) vs Vanderbilt Commodores in the Independence Bowl @ Independence Stadium in Shreveport, LA @ 5 ET Monday - Vandy might fall into that category of "just happy to be here" considering this is their first bowl in 3 years. As for NC State, they are looking to atone for last year's 51-28 Belk Bowl loss to Mississippi State. The Wolfpack did face a tougher schedule than Vanderbilt this season and NC State has outperformed the Commodores even though both teams enter this game at 6-6. Vandy has one of the weaker offenses in the nation and getting hot in their last 2 games of the season doesn't erase the fact that the Commodores were held to 17 points or less in 7 of their first 10 games this season. Also, Vanderbilt is going up against a solid NC State defense that is very strong against the run. The Wolfpack held 9 of their 12 opponents to 24 points or less this season. On offense, though their point totals weren't that impressive as the season wore on, NC State did averaged 282 passing yards per game in their 11 games not played in a hurricane. The reason I say that is the 41 passing yards against Notre Dame in the game played during Hurricane Matthew certainly should be taken out of the equation when evaluating the strength of this NC State offense. The aerial attack as a strength is very significant here because the Commodores weakness on defense is against the pass. Vandy gives up a lot of yard through the air and they don't get many sacks. NC State's defense more than doubled Vanderbilt's sack total for the year. Vandy is on a 4-7 ATS run in non-conference games the past three seasons and also is 1-3 ATS when off of a win against a conference rival. NC State is 12-2 SU (and 10-4 ATS) in non-conference games and also the Wolfpack produced a 5-1 ATS mark when playing with 2 or more weeks of rest between games and they are 8-1 ATS in games played on turf. 10* Top Play NC STATE Monday

Christmas Eve Bowl Special - Rickenbach CFB 8* Hawaii Warriors (+) vs Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders in Hawaii Bowl @ Aloha Stadium in Honolulu, HI @ 8 ET Saturday - This was the one bowl game that had to wait awhile for a line to come out because of the collarbone injury for QB Brent Stockstill. The fact the line opened up at a 4.5 and then shot up to 7 (a lot of hype around the fact Stockstill is probable now for this game) is giving us great line value with a highly motivated home dog here. The Warriors are playing in their first bowl game since 2010 and get to enjoy playing this game in their backyard. Of course, Middle Tennessee State has the superior record this season but Hawaii has played the tougher schedule. Keep in mind, not only do the Warriors play in a tougher conference than do the Blue Raiders, they also played Power 5 Conference teams California, Michigan, and Arizona earlier this season. I like the fact that after a slow start this season, the Warriors got things going and QB Dru Brown really stepped up once he was handed the starting reins. Keep in mind, Hawaii needed a win over UMass in their season finale to earn a spot in this bowl and they put up 46 points in the win over the Minutemen. Like I said above, the Warriors really wanted to get a bowl berth after missing out on the post-season activities for 5 straight years. That means you have a motivated underdog here and note that MTSU head coach Rick Stockstill is only 1-4 SU and ATS in bowl games. The Blue Raiders lost by 2 TDs in the Bahamas Bowl last year and I don't expect this even longer road trip for them to work out well either! While Hawaii's defense is a weakness they have a history of outscoring teams in situations like this. The Warriors are a long-term 9-5 ATS (and 13-1 SU!) in home games with posted total of 70 points or more. The Blue Raiders have a long-term mark of 2-7 ATS in December games and 1-4 SU (1-3 ATS) in games where MTSU enters with 2 or more weeks of rest. The hungry home dog gets the job done here. 8* HAWAII

Dollar General Bowl - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Troy Trojans (-) vs Ohio Bobcats @ Ladd Peebles Stadium in Mobile, AL @ 8 ET Friday - Even though Ohio University could be said to have the coaching edge here since Solich has so much experience and this will be Brown's first bowl game as a head coach, Solich's 7 trips to bowls with the Bobcats have resulted in only a 2-5 record. Certainly this venue favors Brown's Trojans as this game is being played down south and was a short trip for Troy. The biggest edge of all is the offense of the Trojans. While both teams have been solid on defense this season I am forecasting Troy to pull away in this one as their offense has been vastly superior to that of the Bobcats this season. Ohio University turned the ball over 7 times in their last 2 games played away from home while Troy State did not turn the ball over a single time in their final two road games of the season. Ohio U averaged just 302.3 yards per game in their last 3 games of the season while the Trojans averaged 438.6 yards per game on the season. Troy even put up 386 yards at Clemson earlier this season in a 6 point loss as a 5 TD underdog! The Trojans only other two losses were a turnover fueled loss to Arkansas State - whom, by the way, crushed Central Florida Saturday in bowl action - and a loss to Georgia Southern by just 4 points in their regular season finale. That loss cost the Trojans a share of their conference title and further motivates them to come up HUGE in this bowl game with a big win. Troy is on an 8-2 ATS run when off of a loss against a conference rival and the Trojans potent offense will prove to be too much for an Ohio U team that was held to 23 points or less in 7 of their last 11 games. 10* Top Play TROY minus the points in the Dollar General Bowl

Potato Bowl ATS Crusher Thursday - CFB Game #219 - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Colorado State Rams (-) vs Idaho Vandals in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl @ Albertsons Stadium in Boise, ID @ 7 ET - Snow is on the way but not until Friday morning. The Vandals could have used that Thursday night to possibly help them hang around in this game. While I expect both teams to score plenty with light winds and clear conditions expected in Boise tonight, I look for the Rams to pull away in the second half of this game. The points look to be asking a lot in terms of the cover here but, keep in mind, Idaho not only played a weak schedule but also their 8 wins did not include a victory over a single team with a winning record. The Vandals are on an 0-7 SU (and 1-5 ATS) run against teams with a winning record the past 3 seasons. They played one of the weakest schedules in the nation this season and I expect them to be exposed for that here. Colorado State's schedule this season was only moderately tough but they did go a perfect 4-0 ATS against teams with a winning record. Also, the Rams are 7-0 SU (and 5-2 ATS) the past three seasons combined when they are a favorite in a range of 10.5 to 21 points. Colorado State has the much stronger rushing attack in comparing these two teams and also has the better pass defense. That said, once the Rams get a big lead they'll keep pounding away on the ground to wear down the Vandals defense and Idaho will struggle to keep up as they'll be forced to turn to the air against a respectable Rams pass defense. Colorado State head coach Bobo has enjoyed a rejuvenating season with the Rams and they're fired up for this bowl game after losing in last year's Arizona Bowl. With QB nick Stevens having a phenomenal season since replacing the injured Collin Hill, the Rams will put pressure on the Vandals defense all game long as the Colorado State offense is one of the best and most balanced units in the nation. Idaho, against the better teams they faced, gave up an average of 46.5 points per game. That was against Washington, Washington State, Troy, and Appalachian State. Look for Colorado State to pummel the Vandals D in this one and win this one by at least 3 TDs. Lay the big points. 10* COLORADO STATE